FSD

redditazht

FSD is fine, Tesla’s cars are awful. I had a test drive of 3 and y and I immediately sold all my Tesla stocks last year.

minedigger

All my feedback is from last year - March 2023 - paid for FSD subscription for a couple months decided it was garbage and stopped. Maybe I’ll give it another shot - but auto pilot is still crappy on mine.

newwobblywheeler

Did you know that MB OS is based on Blackberry's QNX which is a very powerful RTOS and its tie up AWS have created IVY which will sit above QNX and all the Edge AI which prevents jitters and is seamless and safety critical approved unlike FSD.

Xoptikdesigns

300 billion miles logged into the largest neural network on earth. Robotaxi/FSD going to be tapping into the multi billion dollar Uber/Lyft market. Licensing FSD to other auto manufacturers. Currently delivering Semis to Pepsi. Energy solutions growth outpacing vehicle growth. Optimus with arguably to most advanced robotics network in the world. “BuT iTs JuSt A cAr CoMpAnY hurrrrrrrrr durrrrrrrrr”

RayDomano

Go watch FSD v12 video on YouTube of it driving in the rain. They exist. Waymo is geo fenced and driving down the wrong side of the road. Teslas FSD is currently the only feasible way towards scalable autonomous robotaxis.

jedi2155

FSD beta with automatic speed offset is AMAZING and smooth as hell. Compared to FSD 11 I went from 10 to 15 disengagements per drive to 0 to 3. It's almost there.

Captain-i0

This here is the biggest factor. Babysit the car while not actively driving is a completely worthless novelty. On top of that I would not even want, or let my recently driving aged kid use any kind of FSD, even if it had a perfect record. That’s because they need the driving experience. They need many years of it. And on the other end of life, I have been dealing with a declining parent who is rapidly losing driving capabilities. I don’t think I would even want to use FSD myself much, if at all, because I wouldn’t want my own driving capabilities to erode. The only thing it would be good for, IMO, is if I went out and had one too many and let it drive me home instead of risking a DUI, or if I could sleep on a road trip. And I don’t think those scenarios are going to be legally allowed anytime in the next decade, if ever, no matter how good of a track record it can demonstrate. Insurance isn’t going to take on that liability and I sure as hell am not. I seriously doubt these car manufacturers are going to take on that responsibility legally either. This is not a trillion dollar idea. This is going on end on something that is decades away to making a financial dent in anything.

Ihavethreetvs

I legit do not understand this statement.  When you drive at night, in the fog, in the snow do you use lidar? Or your eyes?  You’re saying 40 cameras that process everything from all angles AND have the benefit of billions and billions of miles of driving experience can’t do better than your eyes now?  It doesn’t have to be perfect, it has to be better than humans.  I would rather drive on the road w nothing but other cars using FSD than some tailgating, buzz/drunk, distracted, nervous, angry humans - Some of which are just plain shit drivers 

SweepTheLeg_

With family and friends, I've been vocal about not trusting FSD 9, 10, 11, but 12 is another level and the subsequent versions keep getting better. I've driven over 20 miles, through freeways, roads and I only overtake at the end to park and I'm very careful. I have needed to take over on other drives, I report every time, and it's mostly since I want to be more on the safe side. More importantly than my anecdotal experience, for 100 million miles of driving, one person dies. 1.3 billion miles of FSD, no deaths and it'll get better from here. I'll never say 100% Robotaxis will happen, until I see it, but calling Tesla GME, Hyundai, is way too far. The potential to disrupt transportation is definitely there. Not liking the CEO is separate too.

kad202

He literally said it in the earning call If you haven’t tried FSD yet then don’t invest in Tesla stock Why bother writing DD when you can just trade fundamentals right? Are those TSLA puts bag getting heavy? Please post your post PP on the other sub

SeperentOfRa

I have heard FSD 12 is amazing … or FSD is something I’ll never use again as it tried to kill me. Glad some people find it amazing. But, the fact is, is if some people find it’s trying to kill them… it’s not close to ready.

paq12x

Tesla was a weird case. Initially, the message was "We shelve the 25k car to concentrate on robo taxi". The market doesn't like that since FSD is a long way to go so the stock took a massive hit since that message came out. During earning calls, Elon said "We'll fast-track the cheap 25k. We can do it on the same assembly line" and the market reversed the dump that the stock has been getting. Tesla didn't jump, it just reversed its course based on the reversed message.

SPorterBridges

> This is complete BS argument, and for these people I have only one thing to say. Google was and is the king in Data, yet we have ChatGPT and Anthropics took them by surprised. They have fraction of data that google has, yet they are far better LLM model than Gemini. It clearly isn't about quantity of data, more so on quality and how it is used to train your model. So what you're saying is Waymo could be overtaken by Tesla's FSD? Bullish!

ratsbane

idk what version you have, but as of about a year ago (maybe last summer?) it no longer stays in the middle of the lane when passing - it hugs the side of the lane opposite the big truck, as any human driver would. Also I haven't had any phantom-breaking incidents in at least 6 months. I think they've got that figured out. However, V12 has introduced a new and annoying problem - when the speed limit increases, it usually correctly recognizes that and raises the target speed - and then doesn't bother accelerating to that target speed. I'm sure there are other things too, but that's the most annoying I've noticed. I've had FSD for about five years now. I use it alot (but always while paying attention, hands on wheel) and I think it's very useful - signficantly reduces cognitive workload on long trips; makes very safe lane changes; etc. Also it's slowly but steadily gotten much better and much more useful. The original version didn't even recognize stop signs and stop lights, but now it makes even most left turns without need for intervention. It's actually good and actually useful, but in no way ready for "robotaxis".

rcuadro

I think the abilities my Mercedes is so limited I don’t think you can compare them. Their L3 ability is on ver small selection of roads, needs clear road markings, moderate to heavy traffic under 40 mph, daytime lighting and clear weather, no construction present, and a driver of course. Tesla’s FSD can operate just about anywhere. It can be like supervising a teenager learning to drive but it even work on the first roads I live on. However, Drive Pilot IS certified so there is that.

kad202

I love Musk recent remark on FSD during earning call. “If you haven’t tried FSD don’t invest in the stock” I tried it and I like it. I even try to recreate the grifter Dan ODown dolls thing and I was impressed that the sharp stopped barely touch the dolls. But hey market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent for trading fundamentals

SweepTheLeg_

You should study the stock more. Saying Tesla is like Hyundai is incredibly misguided. They have more compute ready for AI and if you haven't "driven" an FSD 12 car, you have no idea what you're talking about. Just because you may not like Elon, doesn't mean the company isn't poised to do more with AI, Mega Storage, Solar, Semis, and other items. If you don't believe it, don't buy, but compraing TSLA to GME is a truly biased blind spot of hate.

daynightcase

Their software is no where near FSD and no mentioned of dojo on call makes me think they have given up on their hardware stack. I fail to see their advantage on autonomous and AI in general. At this point it's nothing but hopes and dreams Now he is also talking about using idle tsla cars as compute units. Similar to AWS..the man has truly lost it. And just talking nonsense to pump this thing.

amitrele

There is no value to FSD unless it requires zero attention and takes full responsibility for all actions. Otherwise, I’ll just drive myself and use a car that provides me with sufficient enjoyment while doing so.

luv2block

I thought it was funny that Musk literally said straight up on the earnings call "If you don't think we'll succeed at automated driving you shouldn't own Tesla stock." He's said from day one that if Tesla fails at FSD the company will be worthless. And yet, the fanbois refuse to listen. They keep thinking this that or the other thing will justify Tesla's value. Brass tacks, either they get FSD to work or the company is fucked. And given I had to disengage FSD about 7 times in 30 minutes of driving today... including one time where the car would have smashed into a curb at the end of a merge lane if I hadn't taken over quickly... they aren't even close to FSD working reliably. Tesla has failed to meet it's goals and no amount of marketing will change that. They are going to get hammered and won't recover until they show they can achieve what they set out to achieve. When my FSD actually works properly, I'll be the first to load up on Tesla stock.

stainedhat

You must not live in an urban environment. I've had FSD since about 1 month after they started the beta program in mid 2021 (had to drive like a grandma for a few weeks just to get it at that point). It's nothing more than a party trick. It's good on the freeway but if you go into dense urban areas with a lot of traffic you'll get road raged. It's simply not good in complicated driving environments and it will make people mad at you. It can't figure out basic signage, absolutely sucks at unprotected left turns, struggles with lane changes, and basically drives like a nervous 16 year old who can't make up their mind. Can it do basic things like freeway driving, lane changes, stop signs, and stop lights? Yeah, sure. But I'd never trust FSD in any major city. Either it will get you in an accident or get you shot.

Massivehelpedneeded

LOL @ all the gey TSLA BEARS. Understand the following and throw out your MUSK HATE for a second. TSLA AI is worth money and usable for dummies like you, AKA FSD for the mentally ill (WSBs) and physically ill (old and handicapped ppl) META AI is NOT WORTH MONEY and can't be used by average ppl, AKA more ads???????

moistmoistMOISTTT

It's not impressive when you consider Tesla also takes responsibility for FSD-caused crashes if you're insuring through Tesla. Seems pretty typical for *every* automaker pushing advanced driver assist features. What is impressive is your ability to only form opinions parroted repeatedly by people on Reddit.

JP76

I read a brief report and according to that it seemed Musk is pushing their robot as the next big thing. As in, it's as if cars became secondary and Tesla is now all about the robot. Also his timellne to use robots in their own factories by the end of the year and sell them by the end of next year strongly echoes his predictions about full self driving - in 2016 he strongly felt FSD would be able to drive autonomously from LA to New York by the end of 2017. 8 years later, that hasn't happened yet.

weyermannx

For me, these are worlds apart when you look at the underlying technology in the current marketplace. Regardless of all future promises from either side, of which there are many, Intel is losing market share to its technologically superior competitors, i.e., AMD and NVDA, right now. Their margins are much higher. AMD's CPUs are much simpler and cheaper to build. Intel seems like legacy auto, only achieving parity with AMD by building complex, expensive monstrosities with massive power consumption. For Tesla, I think the earnings call (for analysts) was less about FSD but more about a path forward for increased auto sales in the medium term, which had disappeared from the Tesla story before this point.

Ahueh

Never bet against the king of scammers sir. You WILL have sex robots next year while riding in your FSD $10k Tesla.

Lopsided_Region_6735

FSD will never achieve full autonomy while they refuse to include LIDAR. Mud, rain, debris are all risk factors for vision sensing only. Also, all that data is only useful if in fact the entire engineering community is wrong and Tesla is right that camera sensing is the way to go. Time will tell, but odds are this is just more attempts to fluff the stock.

melanthius

Can’t wait for the new 25k vehicle to be a 45k vehicle. Plaid, FSD, founders series, etc. and you know what, it will fucking sell.

davispw

Honda’s lane assist will literally drive off the road on a mildly-sharp bend in the highway without it so much as a warning beep. Not safe at all. FSD needs supervision but it drives very confidently, especially on the highway.

Monsjoex

Can any of the bears explain to me how a model 2 being cancelled is terrible news but lowering model 3 price is .. also terrible news? Model 2 is needed for higher volumes. Because to reach higher volumes you need to have a cheaper price point to increase demand. This only becomes possible with lower costs if you need to keep good margin. Now they say in the earning call we dropped cogs as much as the price so margin model 3/y is actually stable despite price cuts. Ok so you basically go to a model 2 (lower price point with lower cogs) without actually designing a new model. IMO in both scenario's the margin at volumes of 10 million cars/year will be 0. Why would margins be higher than current gas cars? Yeah tesla has potential for higher margins due to being vertically integrated, but this impact is low. Where it all depends on is whether Tesla will solve autonomy in the coming years  If you believe they will be the first ones to do, then you should invest. If you dont think so then sell any stock. Because the money you make with having a temporary monopoly on selling FSD is enormous.

RockyCreamNHotSauce

Margin beats because extra large FSD recognition. Higher sale this year. But Elon quickly ran it back with a “I think”. So not guidance. Sales are crashing in every market in April. So Q1 results don’t really matter. Their cash pile is on fire already.

No-Cut-2788

Partner with a successful car company and let them produce a $15K car with FSD is a killer move. Still keep the $25K one in house though cause it’s still likely profitable.

Californiast

Because blue cruise only works in VERY specific scenarios. It won't be easy for them to scale up. Also.. there's like thousands of hours of youtube videos of people using FSD 12.3. It's not perfect yet, but the rate of improvement is wild. You should just check those out. There's literal proof.

Californiast

have you tried FSD 12.3? If not, your arguments here are pointless.

bigwig500

He said in 2019 he would have FSD by 2021

calculatedimpulse

Model 2, FSD, CT production volume, expected YoY growth, energy biz

rideincircles

I have FSD, and agree. We are still not near where FSD maxed out it's capabilities with HW3, but it likely won't ever be driverless with HW3 or HW4. HW3 will reach the limits based on visual resolution, and not sure when it will be left behind. It will be pretty capable of being a complete chauffeur, but Tesla likely won't take on driverless responsibility with that hardware setup. The robotaxi will likely have FSD HW5 which will likely upgrade everything for the entire hardware stack. That's what will be needed for Tesla to take responsibility with enough computing power for effective decision making.

Torczyner

I knew you didn't have it lol. The other day it was raining, so I summoned my car to pick me up. It drives me door to door for work 99% of the time without intervention. There's one million miles logged using FSD being used to train the system. For anyone to catch up to that, good luck. You're comparing that to Mercedes driving 40 while following a car, in the day, on a mapped road. Lol. Different planets.

rideincircles

Yup. FSD can now make lots of drives with no interventions. It's mainly planning and other driver nuances it has issues with, but it got rid of lots of bad decision making issues with complex roads on the latest update and can handle roundabouts now. Nothing is remotely close to what Tesla has on the market for consumers. A Tesla with FSD is the most sophisticated AI tool any consumer can buy.

pjrylander

Tesla licensing FSD from Mercedes

Torczyner

>That’s waymo doing just that. Omg haha, where do you buy a Waymo? >Of those I’ve been in waymo and I’ve used fsd on my Tesla - they are certainly not worlds apart like you claim. FSD can do everything Waymo is doing, while getting on the freeway and doing 85mph. Post a screenshot of your tesla FSD version please. Not a single cat sold today can do this other than tesla. https://youtu.be/kax8oUiURPo?si=TETVmA-Dmf1_VKOx

zethuz

They did talk about FSD licensing. Not sure who’s interested

Angry_Citizen_CoH

Plus, investors can simply be *wrong* about the news.  For example, Musk comes out and says he'll make FSD work, AND get a cheap model out, AND this, AND that... And you either believe him or you don't. Believers buy, skeptics short. Does it qualify as news that TSLA intends to make a cheap car? For sure. But whether the market has priced in all factors related to that news, that's much more unlikely.  This not only accounts for short term oscillations, but also long term price movements. Things are priced in according to the market's *understanding* of the news. Money is made when you understand the news *better*.

MyNameis_Not_Sure

And TESLA IS AT THE FOREFRONT?? My guy quit huffing musk farts and come back to reality. Please. Yes humanoid robots are going to be very important this century, but how can a company be at the forefront when they haven’t even started? Boston Dynamics Atlas is at the forefront, and you can watch YT videos all day of their previous iterations, they are *actually* in the robot business right now. I know that cause they casually drop videos of all their robots doing cool stuff for fun…. Instead of just jawing about it all Musk just talks about this stuff…. Talks about FSD… talks about a bulletproof CT…. Talks about hyperloop transforming civilization…. Talks about boring tunnels under very city and eliminating traffic jams….. Talks about Twitter being free speech for all…. Talks about cheap Teslas…. And now Talks about robots…. This mofo is *all talk*. Yes things have been achieved by Musk and Tesla, but *never ever ever* on the timelines or at the price Musk proclaims they’ll happen. Don’t keep falling for it

BillysCoinShop

If google can’t get FSD level 4, with a $100,000 computer and camera apparatus sitting on top, and still need engineers to watch over the car, then for sure a Tesla can’t even achieve anything close to FSD. You are as I said before, dumb. I hope to god you don’t ferry children in your Tesla with “FSD v12”.

Torczyner

>It likes to stop in the middle of the road at the destination if it doesn’t like the looks of the parking lot among many other glaring issues. I’m not gonna say Mercedes is definitively better as I was just a passenger and didn’t put it through any kind of paces like I did Tesla, but Tesla is neither ahead nor is the difference massive. You're just making things up then. Zero other cars will make a turn at an intersection, let alone Navigate city, to highway, to city again. You're either underestimating the amount of data and compute needed, or are not familiar with current FSD. You also don't understand how LIDAR was a handicap and needed to go. Our current model Y will drive to the parking lot and let us touch the spot we want to park in with vision. It's crazy good.

1LE_McQueen

but the totally trustworthy media told me Mercedes was better than Tesla in FSD

neobow2

Gamble with my life. lol acting like i don’t pay attention while on FSD. Also If you “owned a tesla for 3 years” that implies you definitely never tried FSD v11 let alone v12. I’m guessing you only used Autopilot (which is objectively bad)

meoraine

It's clear you don't follow the progress of TSLA, you simply built a bear thesis off speculation and you're confused why it's not paying. TSLA results show the highest margins ever achieved in several key areas including TSLA Energy. They made changes to FSD which will convert a tremendous amount of users, all at $99 per month subscription. They decreased employee count and overhead. They're still holding their BTC investment. They disclosed a private discussion with a major vehicle manufacturer (likely Ford) who is interested in their FSD from a SaaS product. And their primary focus now is on Robotaxi, which will essentially put Uber and Lyft out of business and turn every model Tesla into a lucrative $ generating revenue source for owners. And to be honest this isn't even all of the bullish stuff that was disclosed this week, there is the AI and robotics arms that is progressing forward as well. Long story short, TSLA has revenue channels far and beyond vehicle sales and bears are going to get rekt if they're not paying attention.

Traditional-Year3847

They will never show you till they have a fully patented product you dumbshit. its LOGIC lol. the reason to cut prices on FSD is to increase adoption. higher quantity sold > higher subscription price. Again, DUMBSHIT

Torczyner

Mine does non of those things. Next to a big rig? It moves over slightly in the lane, more than I do as a driver. Post a screenshot of your FSD version for us as proof. Current fsd doesn't have phantom braking. You're thinking of AP.

readit145

Even better then. Guess FSD under any conditions is actually not possible then. Looks like we can all go home and drive our own cars. Who knew

BallPythonTech

Regulations. Most cities will go broke when level 5 FSD rolls out. They make a ton of money from tickets (speeding, red light, parking) all which will go away.

sermer48

Reminds me of when Ford was pushing Blue Cruise as better than FSD because you could take your hands off the road. A head engineer at Ford was giving Sandy Munro a test drive and it couldn’t handle slight curves in the freeway. It was one of the most cringy and funny things I’ve seen but people hyped it up because it was “hands free” despite being dog shit.

BallPythonTech

Substantial FSD revenue won't happen until we get to level 5 autonomy. We are no where near that. We are currently at level 2. https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/autonomous-driving-levels.html#:\~:text=Level%205%20cars%20won't,available%20to%20the%20general%20public.

rioferd888

FSD

PIK_Toggle

Summary from [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/TradingEdge/comments/1cbwmuo/everything_im_watching_and_analysing_in_premarket/): TESLA: * Basically, the fears about margins failed to materialise here, as gross margin and auto margin come in ahead of expectations. Expectation was low into the print. * There are some analysts arguing that these numbers are being inflated by FSD revenue recognition. And that with 3-5% price cuts and 20% lower deliveries, gross margins shouldn’t have been 17.4%, when Q4 revenue was 17.6%. WE will learn more of this when 10-Q comes out. * Nonetheless: * Revenue came in 21.3B a 8.7% miss vs consensus * EPS came 0.45, a big miss vs expectations of 0.58 * FCF came in at negative 2.5B a big miss vs consensus of 1.19B. * Gross margins came 17.4%, beating consensus of 16.9% * Auto Gross Margin came 16.4% beating 15.8% consensus * EBITDA margin came 15.9% beating expectation of 15.8% * Within Revenue, Services beat, but thats a tiny segment * Automotive revenue, which is the bulk missed by 11% * Energy missed by 13% * Comments from the press conference: * Accelerating launch of new models ahead of previously communicated start of production in H2 2025 * This includes more affordable models * Still sees notably lower volume growth rate for 2024 * Committed to company wide cost reduction * Production at Shanghai Giga factory is down QOQ * Musk says Tesla may be able to sell Optmius by the end of next year * Tesla aims to deliver Semis to customers in 2025 * Says Tesla will have higher sales this year than last year * Buybacks are possible, but we need positive cash flow * RObotaxi will be called cyber cab

rkhbusa

$158,000 CAD to get the performance equivalent of the Model Y long range $64,000 CAD + $11,000 FSD package = $75,000 At least the interior's nicer on the Benz. Benz FSD currently usable only in California and under 40MPH. I think Tesla's market share will be mostly unaffected.

BaxBaxPop

You're right about needing long exposure at night with cameras, unless...well unless you had lights. If only Tesla could install lights on their cars to illuminate the road ahead...like at the head of the car. Don't know if they'll be able to figure out trying to put lights at the head of the car. Would be cool though. Could call them frontlights or something. I don't know. To sci-fi to figure out. FSD does better at night. Glare is more of a problem than the dark.

AlfrescoDog

📑 Fat cat summary report regarding TSLA's earnings. I apologize to those who get irritated when they see more than ten words strung together. For the third consecutive quarter, **Tesla** (**TSLA**) fell short of EPS estimates while revenue in Q1 declined by 8.7% yr/yr to $21.3 bln, also missing expectations and representing the EV maker's first sales decrease since 2Q20. Yet, TSLA shares are charging higher today, registering some much-needed gains after the stock's 43% year-to-date plunge.  * The rebound is partly attributable to the muted expectations surrounding this earnings report and the simple fact that this weak quarter is now in the rearview mirror. After TSLA reported disappointing Q1 deliveries on April 2, followed by news of steep shipment declines at its Shanghai facility and a fresh round of price cuts in the U.S., **a dismal quarterly report was essentially a given**. Now that it's in the books, investors can set their sights on more positive developments. * On that note, TSLA disclosed in its Q1 shareholder letter that it has "updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025." This future vehicle line-up will include the highly anticipated affordable "Model 2", which is expected to have a price tag under $30,000. * The update comes as a pleasant surprise because back on April 5, *Reuters* reported that TSLA was looking to scrap plans to build its mass-market car mainly due to rising competition in China. Indeed, in the weeks leading up to last night's Q1 earnings report, it appeared as if Elon Musk had shifted gears as he focuses on launching a robotaxi in the 2025/2026 timeframe. **On April 8, Musk looked to spark some excitement for the robotaxi, announcing that it will be unveiled on August 8.** * However, investors weren't taking the bait as the prospects of TSLA cancelling plans to launch Model 2 forced analysts to rethink their EPS and revenue expectations for FY26 and beyond. Now, TSLA hasn't just put Model 2 back on the table, but it has also sped up the timeline, aiming to begin production ahead of its previously communicated start in 2H25. **Of course, given Musk's propensity of being overly optimistic regarding new product launches, this should be taken with a grain of salt.** * Nevertheless, TSLA confirming that Model 2 is still in the works comes as a relief and helps change the bearish narrative that has enveloped TSLA this year. With a legitimate growth catalyst on the horizon, that TSLA believes will enable more than 50% growth over 2023 production, the focus turns away from a Q1 that was quite dismal. * Driven by eroding ASPs, gross margin decreased again, slipping by 20 bps qtr/qtr and by 199 bps yr/yr to 17.4%. Meanwhile, operating expenses continue to climb higher, increasing by 37% yr/yr to $2.53 bln as TSLA ramps up its investments in AI infrastructure to enhance its FSD technology. **The main takeaway is that TSLA's Q1 results were weak across the board, but that was widely anticipated and largely baked into the stock. By disclosing its plans to accelerate the launch of more affordable vehicles, TSLA has swung the narrative back to a more bullish manner as the next significant growth catalyst is back on the table.**

BaxBaxPop

I never understand the argument of bad snowstorms and bad rainstorms. What do humans do when visibility drops to nil? You pull over and wait it out. Not being able to navigate catastrophic weather is not an argument against FSD. It doesn't have to be perfect, just safer than humans. And it can handle routine snow and rain perfectly fine without lidar.

GeneralZaroff1

Elon bashing aside, no. This isn’t comparable to FSD in the least. It’s basically assisted lane control for very specific highway traffic only. FSD12 isn’t level 3 and is flawed still, meaning you need to supervise it closely, but it can go to city streets and do automated turn by turn from a to b. Right now no other European or US car manufacturer has a similar product for consumers. Waymo and other robo taxis are ahead, but not for consumers.

new_name_who_dis_

That's true but Lidar is still safer and better. At night especially Lidar actually has a good view of the surroundings but cameras are gonna be getting very noisy inputs. I work in computer vision and I wouldn't trust a FSD system that doesn't have Lidar.

futuremayor2024

Have you driven in a 12.3 FSD vehicle? I’m assuming not.

Vandrel

They haven't done FSD at all but it's their own system as far as I know. It was just a far smaller undertaking than Tesla's system. 40 mph on certain highways during clear weather in the daytime with another car in front to follow, that's not FSD even if they can legally call it a level 3 system for marketing purposes and it's working pretty well for grabbing all these "Mercedes beats Tesla to a level 3 system" headlines.

DropoutGamer

You don’t have FSD v12. I only drive 1% of the time now.

Vandrel

Lidar has issues with snow and rain because the lasers reflect and refract off the rain drops and snowflakes, it's not perfect. Also, I've gone through a big rainstorm at night with my Tesla where I could barely see anything but the cameras could pretty much see fine and FSD got me through it with no issue. I don't know what magic was at work for that but it was way better than I expected, it greatly exceeded my expectations.

nailattack

I’ve been a Tesla bull for quite sometime and turned bearish last Q3. Have you actually seen their humanoid robots? Lol. No need to say more on that front. This last move with the earnings call was their last trick. The main driver of the positive move was their affirmation of new models coming out in 2025. First, they always overpromise and under-deliver with the timelines. Second, when asked about whether the models are refreshes or new concept vehicles, they basically dodged the question (as expected). The Tesla cult bought it up on the hopium that Model 2 is coming out soon, probably triggered a squeeze and liquidated shorts. But I believe these moves, along with their massive price cuts (even with FSD) are ones of panic. If they believed in their FSD and robotaxi vision, why on earth would they cut the monthly subscription price by half?

1e7643-8rh34

With his FSD timeline, robots should make it to market by 2170

Anti-roller_Activist

No news : huge FSD improvement, robotaxi will compete in food delivery sector, New affordable model, etc.

yeluapyeroc

I got to test the FSD mode last week. I, for one, will be buying a Tesla this year

Angryferret

Hey! My comment was asking about hardware, I wasn't trying to make a claim about it being good enough to trust fully. I agree mostly with what you said, but I think over the coming 5-10 years we will get fully comfortable with AI doing a lot more, hopefully as the deaths per mile becomes an order of magnitude better. Having watched hours of various autonomous vehicle trips, Tesla's latest FSD is so far ahead of Mercedes, and the rest of the industry.

milehigh89

Have you driven in Tesla FSD? It handles clear marked highways in the day like a boss at twice these speeds. Lane changes, no cars ahead of you no problem. Where it sucks is in parking lots and poorly marked back streets. When I read the limitations on Mercedes, you're paying $2500 for something you can only use in 2 states, but where's there's heavy enough traffic that you can't go the speed limit. If you're an LA driver who commutes, then you can probably use this. But you're geo and time locked to a few cities at specific times of the day in perfect weather only in highways.

browow1

I mean I’m not going to argue that. My point is just that a company putting liability on their shoulders for this stuff - however stupid it is - is quite literally the third most important step for FSD. the most important would be government regulators approval, and second most important is insurance companies adopting it but I doubt that’ll happen anytime soon.

Arctic92Monkey

They didn't make a lot of money because they spent a lot on nvidia GPUs bit are now no longer constrained by compute. FSD progress should start getting even faster now.

Xelbiuj

"try it for yourself" Yeah I know enough to know I'm not qualified to consider myself a regulator on this lol. Likewise I doubt you've tried FSD, let alone one of its competitors. And done a real comparison.

d3ming

Did Mercedes do their own FSD or are they licensing from some other tech company?

DramaCute8222

Nope, don't need to, it's called try it out for yourself or watch consumers videos. this is something happening right now... not 3 months ago or 6 months ago... right now... and it keeps getting better and better each week. About 15 million FSD miles being drove each day.. this is hwo these things work, they get better and as they get better they get better faster. Sorry I don't rely on outdated articles.

redditsuxdeez

You can upgrade to FSD for an extra $8000 

InIce1234

Try FSD 12.3 yourself or go watch a few videos on youtube. It already drives better than your grandparents.

DramaCute8222

lololol a CNN article from 2023, GTFOH. Nothing compares to FSD whether you want to accept that or not, well you probably have no idea because you're clueless.

InIce1234

Being long TSLA for over a decade thats what has been said over the years. Whats next? It’s just a modified Lotus. Tesla is going bankrupt.. The Model S is too expensive. The Model X is too expensive. Model 3 will never be made. Tesla is gonna run out of money. Model 3 will never scale. Model Y will never be made. Model Y will never sell in high volume. FSD is just vapourware. .... 

Xelbiuj

"he did say that there’s “a good chance” a deal is signed this year." There's zero chance they ever license their FSD. Vision only was such a boneheaded move. These are machines and should use the full suite of possible sensors they can. "Well humans don't have LIDAR" YEAH BITCH AREN'T THESE SUPPOSE TO BE BETTER THAN HUMANS?! Humans can't see infrared either but the JWST makes sense.

DramaCute8222

Pretty sure Tesla will be $5T by 2027, I mean nothing will stop this thing. Optimus, AI/FSD, Ride Hailing (RIP Uber and Lyft), solar, energy storage, car charging (gas stations of EVs), insurance, distributed inference, lithium refining, batteries batteries and more batteries. IYKYK, its obvious what's happening.

ric2b

FSD was supposed to be ready by when, 2018, I think? And then "next year" every year since then? Musk is scamming people with the promise of FSD.

Difficult_Coat_772

Also ignore that their energy business will surpass the automatic in revenue by next year. And ignore the pace of progress with v12 FSD Serious levels of regardation on this forum 

MansBarelyHot

Guess you didn’t listen in on the earnings call guidance includes new model, FSD licensing, lower car prices, Robotaxi

MrStealYoBeef

Well it's nearly zero risk, or at least no more risk than they were already taking on before. Their FSD is as limited as it can possibly be to the point that it's nearly impossible to fuck up.

DocPhilMcGraw

That is most definitely not the reason. It’s easy to develop a system to have the driver take over. In fact, they are legally supposed to already have said system in place which is why the NHTSA had a big problem with Tesla before. The reason Tesla hasn’t made their system Level 3 is because, again, Tesla would have to be made liable for the system under a Level 3 system. I’d point your attention to [the SAE levels of autonomy](https://cdn.jdpower.com/SAE%20Levels%20of%20Automation%20May%202021.jpg) where the clear distinction between Level 2 and Level 3 driving is that in Level 2 you are still constantly supervising the system. Tesla is already facing lawsuits from FSD/Autopilot crashes now. It’s only going to increase when they say that their system actually allows you to look away from the roads.

GoreBurnelli8105

Tesla will be buying Boeing and fix all their manufacturing problems. FSD aircraft soon after.

Notorious544d

The reason you have to babysit it is because they haven't developed a function to force the driver to take the wheel. Otherwise, Tesla FSD generally works well 95% of the time with no limitations. It's just those edge cases where it's collecting more data for the AI to train

Worried_Quarter469

The cars that were supposed to get FSD were always sold, can’t change that now

Ehralur

There's no breakdown to be found, you need to do actual research to determine this. Occasionally Tesla will mention FSD adoption rates which allows you to calculate the revenues. Before the price cuts it was ~15% in the US and 5-8% in Europe and Asia. Most of those were purchases, ~5% in the US is from subscriptions. When Tesla's selling 400K cars like in Q1, that's ~30K cars with FSD purchases at ~$10K average price, so 300M in high margin gross profit. Plus ~5% of the existing 2M cars fleet in the US subscribing, is another 60M in gross margin. Obviously that'll grow over time as adoption and the fleet grow, but as I said it's at around 20% of their net automotive margin. Other carmakers do ~1% of their revenue in software sales. Of course that's only their software sales. They also have energy and a part of service coming from non-automotive products, so in total they do ~30-35% of their profit from non-automotive sales and growing every quarter.

Particular-Line-

Nike beat earnings, and the stock tanked on guidance. It is just crazy how the market works. Future upside is important, but to spike just to say ‘we are gonna be great’ after badly missing deliveries, cutting FSD cost in half. Lowering the price of the Model Y again. The fuck are people doin buying lol. I mean Elon could say he has a cardboard box that is the best box there is, and people would still buy it for $100. fomo is real af

arizonamoonshine

That report seems a little split when you get to the last paragraph. Some other factors potentially in play though, stock buyback and Elon teased that he’s working with “a major auto maker” to license out FSD. Majority thinks it’s Ford. Guy is the definition of hype train haha. I’m good either way though. +250% on my move and DD. I nailed the $13 estimate. Will likely cover my buy-in today and let the winnings ride. We’ll see how the day goes. Earnings always a gamble. Maybe we both win🤙🏽 Good luck to you as well

Angryferret

Why do you say they are adding that hardware back in? My understanding is that the plans are for FSD to just use Cameras. I'm not a Musk fanboy, but FSD is now completing a lot of trips without human intervention. From what I can see they are far ahead of the competition.

JonDum

You clearly have not kept up with the latest FSD version.

arizonamoonshine

Update for 4/24 Getting some messages about what the PT is for today and for after earnings. I can only say what I’d like to see: Pre-earnings during the day I can see this hitting $13.46 and possibly higher. The ATR (average true range) of Ford is $0.37. As of writing this were exactly at $13.08. Almost spot on. But of course I would LOVE $14+! After earnings, if we see that $13.46+ mark, I think the obvious move is to $15 on a big beat and possibly higher by Friday. META announces earnings tomorrow after close also so that will likely be your market mover variable for 4/25 at open. Good to keep an eye on that also. Last, two potential news stories to watch for in addition to a big beat is if Ford announces a stock buyback, and also if Ford announces a partnership with Tesla for Full Self Driving. Elon teased that he’s working with a “Major Auto Maker” in the U.S. on licensing FSD. The general concensus is that it’s Ford. An official announcement in addition to a beat would likely launch this. Ford is already working with Tesla for Supercharger compatibility and it’s known that Ford’s CEO Jim Farley is a fan of Elon. Good luck to everyone!

TimedOutClock

Tesla needs to change CEO because Musk's vision of simplifying FSD with only cameras fucked their lead in the field (And now that he has lost his aura, he's also costing them sales). Removing the extra hardware (LiDAR and Radars, which they're installing AGAIN) was the dumbest shit he's done, especially when he had a legion of people willing to test his cars on their own dimes. If he had stayed course, I actually believe he'd have gathered enough data to make something veryyyy close to what he had promised, especially with the new AI advances. Just imagining all the data he pissed away by only relying on cameras makes me wonder how the stock's still trading so high.

waruyamaZero

I doubt that there will be a model 2. The "more affordable models" will be stripped down Model 3 or Y. Elon is betting the farm on FSD, robotaxis and a shitty humanoid robot.