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2024 will suffer further decline in broadband; early signals point to a return to growth in 2025 & current pockets of growth will mitigate
2024 will suffer further decline in broadband; early signals point to a return to growth in 2025 & current pockets of growth will mitigate
Inflation might not be tamed yet. And the numbers coming out right now are probably not the numbers JPow was looking for.
Callon Petroleum Buyback (CPE)
#CPE Despite significantly less debt, higher oil price, and imminent dividend this was valued higher in June 2021. Earnings 3rd May 2023
Very Bullish on Callon Petroleum (CPE)
Grab some Dick's, we're going to the moon.
Intra Week Unsolicited Technicals Update
Here comes the next squeeze $REI sitting at 17.5% on a $4 stock
24% short only 42m shares outstanding shortttt squeezzzz
Oil Rally and the incoming "Transitory Inflation"
Oil rally and the incoming "Transitory Inflation"
Oil Rally and the incoming "Transitory Inflation"
Oil Rally and the coming "Transitory Inflation"
Can we talk about why the market is still bullish?
CPE oil play yolo. Bought in this morning at open.
$OZSC copy-pasted $FOMC PR (Clean Energy Group)
Ozop Energy OZSC Signs Agreement with Clean Peak Energy
Hello everyone! Is anyone following any Oil tickers like CPE?
$CPE - Oil is at record highs, it's a bad day to be a short seller.
🔥🔥🔥 $CPE Welcome to the space race 🔥🔥🔥
6/2/2021- THE SHERPA'S LIST | $CPE | ARVL | ERX | MRO | PSFE | SOXL- 1 PREMARKET TRADE- i published this yesterday and raked 19 percent profit with high certainty- follow my simple approach- no self promo
Spotlight on AGYP (OTC US: AGYP): The Oil Shortage Opportunity Looms (NYSE: RRC) (NYSE: CPE) (NYSE: SM) (NASDAQ: PTEN)
CPE Callon Petroleum is beginning another breakout to over $100. CPE will be $50 in April, as it's getting ready for the 2nd Qtr double> CPE
I want to thank everyone on this page who gave me quality information and told me about GSAT,CPE,CYCC and KOS. They Seriously turned my portfolio around. Remember to do your Research on all stocks and don’t fall to the FOMO. The dips where all from FOMO and basically being an autist.
Mentions
I suspect someone big got a sneak peak of the CPE report.
I think you’re confusing CPI with PPI. CPI came in at estimate but PPI came in about double the month over month. On the longer horizon it looks good, but the shock was on the short term which is what sent the Russell down the toilet. It kind of forebodes a stubborn future CPI and more importantly, CPE, as it’ll cause prices to stay inflated.
Analyst price targets are sus. The Whipsers are actually more important IMO. The spread between the Analyst and Whisper number lets you know how dumb everyone thinks the Analyst is and the actual sentiment. Higher than analyst is bullish, same as analyst is bearish. Usually the higher the spread, the higher the IV as well. For those that play through earnings, you can beat the estimate but if you come under the Whisper it’s a sell signal. The strategy overall seems ok but you need to be careful with earnings around macro economic events (ie FOMC, CPI, CPE, PPI - if Russell component, etc). New Macro data will cause broader market moves that could wipe you out in the lead time. So say you buy calls, next day Fed decides they will need to hike 25 basis points, everything is going to basically shift downward 3-5%. You just wiped out your calls as the baseline gets re-shifted down. You’d probably make more money day trading momentum as the compounding daily returns will increase your war chest significantly faster. 0DTEs on Fridays are very cheap as well so once a week you can ride the big names like NVDA, SMCI, MSTR, etc. if you’re adding 5% every day, that should be more sustainable. Now if you can’t read candlestick charts, I’d go back and learn that before touching anything else, so you can understand when to actually enter into a call option either way.
why would CPI make any difference? The FED looks at Core CPE. CPI will come in at .4 MOM. Woopdie-doo.
.4 CPI is gonna tank the market? Bears please. You be trippin. Core CPE is all that matters to JPow.
I dont think they will vut this year. Not till CPE trends to 2.0. He said this for 6hrs this week.
Sell GOOG, AAPL, OCGN, CPE, and add to RBLX/NFLX
Where in a bull market with AI leading the charge and good CPE report and you fill half your portfolio with puts on successful companies and then calls on a failing EV startup
You got a 2.5% dip on that CPE day. Expect more dips into end of year.
+$30 instantly upon CPE release
Morning of CPE, not the best morning for earnings release. Wait till CPE release and then the awkwardly timed 10:30am conference call.
CPE WILL MAKE THE MARKET # BERS R FUKD ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
3.0 CPE ![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27421)
CPE numbers tomorrow will be high.. Fed will hold rates longer
Market wants to dump so bad rn this is crazy. Hot CPE sends us lower so fast even Ber head will spin
Don’t look my CPE is leaking
I’m waiting for the week of CPE numbers, I might do a straddle but it’s definitely hitting $1000 this year
Everyone with a brain is waiting for CPE
CPI is at 3% and core CPE, one of Powell's favorite numbers, is at 2.9%. And that's not taking into account trailing housing data. If nothing changes, inflation will continue to go down because we know housing went down in the recent past. Idk why people feel the need to always be contrarian. Powell said in the last meeting, just a week or so ago, that he's planning to cut rates this year. The FOMC members get polled and they all think that rates will be cut this year. The bond market is betting trillions of dollars that rates will get cut this year. And then redditors are trying to tell everyone how all that is wrong because 12 month trailing CPI is at 3.3%. Come on, get real.
Core CPE index came in lower than expected so hopefully JPow walks into the Wed meeting with the printer running
CPE hot but Equities are hotter 🥵 pump it up
Meh nothing burger. CPE will not drive the market down today. VIX Crush Friday is on baby!!
Can y'all imagine what happens if CPE is 3+???
Buying SPY PUTS for Friday CPE report.
That, and the fact that the oil sands companies have higher break-even prices on oil has made me shy away from the Canadian oil companies. The Permian players in the US, like DVN, PXD (being bought by XOM), and CPE (being bought by APA), have lower breakeven points, which give a greater margin of safety.
Bullish on CPE. Thx OP ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)
0DTE isn't something to trade every day. I'll make some 0DTE trades occasionally but only when the right setups are there. Specifically, oversold conditions and an upcoming catalyst (e.g. FOMC or CPE data) where I can buy OTM calls with 0-3 DTE and make 500% to 1000%. \~90% of the time the market has priced in the daily move, which makes for really difficult conditions for profitably trading 0DTEs. It's not even worth looking at.
Damn, APA -8.00% today for acquiring CPE. Big acquisition. A bad one IMO, because CPE's fcf is low, and debt high.
Thanks for the write up, very interesting. I had thought that all oil, regardless of where it came from took quite a bit of time to go online (and colder places like in Russia etc. was even more challenging), hadn't realized Saudi has that advantage not just reserve advantage. What would stop Saudi/OPEC to just not do the same thing in 2014-2016? I can't imagine why they wouldn't do that to just maintain the advantage, unless of course there is a significant downside I don't see. Seems to me this play on CPE might not be such a good a idea if Saudi wants to maintain their advantage.
Thank you for the insight on CPE
I put 40k in CPE because some regard on the front page said there’s a buyout potential …
I’ve been riding CPE since 6$ close to the covid lows. Been a drag this last year but still up bigly and have cashed out double my initial investment. Only reason I’m still holding 125 shares is the ongoing M&A in the sector and the relatively low market cap makes me hopeful of a buyout. Anything above 50 and I’m selling on the spot.
Check the news on CPE , there is an article out on it already. Would it get removed for posting the link here? First time posting
definitely 480C EOY bag holders trying to figure out if their bags got any lighter. CPE came in cool and that shit didn't even help ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
JPOWs gonna need a clean change of pants after CPE today
Congrats. If we moon on CPE you might still be cucked though
To those holding 1dte index options overnight, I hope the CPE goes your way BC it's maximize or vaporize on the day before Christmas break
Maybe. It may keep falling tomorrow into CPE. Then moon
That’s it lol. Anyone who bought stocks at the start of covid should have at least a couple 100% gains. I got a 1000% gain from Gas and Oil alone (CPE)
Same here. Made 1000% on CPE alone. Those were good times (pun).
He's not looking for 2% core, he's looking for 2% CPE, overall. And core is at 3.5% (since the fed uses CPE, not CPI). And again, he'll cut before they get there, so as not to overshoot. They probably start to cut somewhere around 2.5% CPE, which at the current pace is not too far away. It's very possibly in the 3 to 6 month window somewhere.
Expected CPE is pretty fucking low so if it comes in cooler it might mean hard landing, idk why they didn’t just toss out a high ass expected CPE
hulk open.. gap down.. calls baghold for tmr super flat or lower CPE.. ​ to the moon outcome.. is the same
its CPE ![img](emote|t5_2th52|31225). and it always trails CPI, it'd need to miss bad for the market to shit
During the pandemic (March/April 2020) I put my entire savings which was only around $10k into Gas and Oil stocks (Mainly CPE). I also put my $1200 stimulus check into CPE and turned it into like $5k, then put that into NIO at $9 and made like $30k, then put the $30k into LATAM and turned it into $35k, then put it back into CPE and turned it into around $55k. Then I realized that I was supposed to pay taxes after each grade lmao. But yeah, turned the $1200 into $50 something grand then I ended up buying Solana and Doge coin and made like $150k. At one point my daily trade volume was around $500k during the 2021 crypto bubble. It was pretty crazy for me because if the pandemic didn’t happen I’d still probably be at my old job making $20 hour and would never have fully gotten into trading.
Everybody gets one. Turned my $1200 pandemic check into $55k by buying, selling, reinvesting into CPE, NIO, LATAM, NIO, CPE during 2020. Those days are gone though.
Especially stocks that are truly undervalued but shorters keep down. I am thinking VTLE, SBOW, CPE those kind of stocks. Low floats but we could really screw with some shorters there .....
Tonight unemployment numbers will look bad.. tomorrow CPE will go down We rally again Bears die Buy when there’s fear
Yes and if I wouldn’t have traded in and out of them and just held until 2022 I would have made way higher a return lol. Look up SM, CPE, VTLE, PR, etc
Was up on CPE and down on NVDIA in PM. Now it clowned into the complete opposite at open 🤡
I bought a ton of UCO back in '21, I've been sitting on it ever since. It was at $200 / share right before it split, then it started to tank again. Right now, it's sitting at $34, I'd love for it to get back closer to $50. Then I'll dump it. This was my very first foray into the Stockmarket outside of my 401(k). If all the wars would stop, I think it could hit $60-$70/share. It was well on its way there before Russia invaded the Ukraine. My only regret is not buying more of it. USO had been outperforming UCO for a while though. CPE and OXY are ones that may be worth looking at too. ​ https://preview.redd.it/vui8lft880ub1.png?width=2954&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a9bb9423299906a94858e63f072bb3f8ed8d177
Simple way PPI is the producers side of things. If they are being impacted by inflation they are either passing that along to the consumers or they are eating it which = less profits. ​ PPI is more important indicator in my opinion but both are bullshit because the fed uses what CPE as their number? ​ TLDR we fucked
Thank you for your post. I’m another regard with a drug habit that purchased this shit stock but I sold its loses a while ago. Now which one of your regards told me to buy CPE. It’s like dog shit. It just keeps stinking up portfolio. Need to ask my wife boyfriend for more funds.
Even if CPE comes in hot, my guess you are screwed regardless as there will be a massive short squeeze tomorrow with all of the monthly 401k money pouring in…
Probably reverse after CPE @ 8.30AM
Holding overnight options ..ya probably I can see reversal after CPE though
Yeah until CPE comes in good and ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
I believe you are hoping for a hot CPE read which seems unlikely but who knows. Otherwise fucked… Wendy’s by 5, gotta make it back somehow.
PPI isn’t Wednesday CPE is Friday though
I got 75 shares at about $62. I’m holding but don’t think I’ll increase my share except dividends reinvesting. It’s an interesting company and there is a reason that Warren choose it. It’s in the recovery business and not exactly oil or at least that was my understanding. They buy old claims and extract more oil… which is good business especially as the world changes… but maybe I’m wrong. Some regard told me to buy CPE. These are more only holdings in energy
Where are you getting this acceleration of inflation from? YOY Core CPI has been going down, see: [https://ycharts.com/indicators/us\_core\_consumer\_price\_index\_yoy](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_core_consumer_price_index_yoy) Headline CPI went up the last two months due to oil, see: [https://ycharts.com/indicators/us\_consumer\_price\_index\_yoy](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_consumer_price_index_yoy) Core CPE is what the Fed likes to look at and overall, it still looks promising, see: [https://ycharts.com/indicators/us\_core\_pce\_price\_index\_yoy](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_core_pce_price_index_yoy) On Core CPE it's just a 0.15% from last month -- could be nothing, just a blip.
I was just in a CPE course that stated 40% of Americans would need to take out a loan to cover an unexpected $400 expensive.
If CPE print tomorrow is hot, we gonna get an epic trip to Hades. Falling employment **and** stubborn inflation combination will be deadly to market sentiment. Changing my keyboard bindings right now for every key to be the short key.
Lol if the only difference between the two is integrated ram some sweaty CPE students would have operating systems running off of GPUs. They are fundamentally different pieces of hardware
Been long on $CPE and $KOS since pandemic
CPE number coming out tomorrow morning.
CPE will be hot mainly because of the lagging effect on demand reportability. Summer demand is always higher and spending increases so we will start seeing that in inflation prints.
CPE tomorrow will slaught3r all bears, sorry. Just picked up .03 SPY call for tomorrow at $460.
The dollar looks to go higher and watch the CPE tomorrow and the unemployment report next Friday. I believe the fed will raise 25 in September. The economy is strong and is only getting stronger as the thoughts of a recession fade away and unions get more money for UPS, FDX, autos and others. Coke and Pepsi raised their prices and oil looks to go into the 80’s which will raise the CPI. Rents have not gone down and while they’ve cut EV’s gas vehicles are going up with the idea that people are turning negative against EV’s. (Just some bad press working for automakers for their gas cars). The Fed may have to raise in November especially in the stronger economy. Higher and longer has been their mantra since a year ago and even JPOW mentioned that 5.25 - 5.50 is just barely above neutral. Their goal was always to hit 5-5.25 which they have said was their neutral starting point. Now think about the commercial offices IF ( and a big IF) business’s get more of the workforce to go to work what about all the new expenses and cash being spent to go to work. Stronger CPI and stronger GDP. Results? Higher interest rates. It’s a possibility we may need to go to 6 % ( which few economists feel is possible) and eventually all those FOMO people will start selling. Between now and the end of the year is the most dangerous time in our economy. One last thought. Just because the indexes may hit their highs from 2021 does NOT mean this bull market is going on. It can mean that the bear market may be over, but in the past the markets had reached their old highs and then collapsed back into the bear market. Just be cautious. Good luck
oh yeah, thats full cope if you are bearish and believe inflation is tamed. Ill happily admit my thesis is purely based off antidotal experience as well. I just havent seen the same price changes that CPI/CPE is suggesting, and when i discuss it with multiple friends or co-workers i get the same reply "dude are you fucking high? shits still going up". I just feel like it got too political, and as soon as something becomes a political topic today, suddenly the data behind it and narrative start to get.... funny. Go ask someone "hey do you feel like inflation is still high?" and youll get "yes, are you fucking high"? Im talking actual people. Not people on reddit. Its a toss up if the person on here is paid, or a bot who you are talking to. Its impossible to know the %, but all that is known that its significant, and a lot. So take that for what you want. Its easy to buy the "job well done" narrative if ur source of your opinion is from CPI and its echo'd on r/stock and r/wsb who are manic for any news to justify a rally. Ive had Oil changes go from 90 dollars to 120, in 6 months, 3 weeks ago. The cashier goes "thats just how things are now" when i bring it up. Funny enough the price of oil *decreased* during that time (i like to trade /CL so im aware of where it was in nov2022 Vs now). Was the same shop. same car, same oil, same amount, same service. I compared recipes. I know thats just one example, but i feel like i live that experience multiple times a week. I still go to the store and see a price increase thats nowhere near what the CPI suggests. I still go out and look to buy new furniture and remember it being X amount less a few months ago, and 2x cheaper 3 years ago. I want to believe the CPI/CPE because it means im getting richer. ive increased my income 20% the last year, but i just dont *feel* anywhere near it. feels like ive had a 10% raise at best. Either the CPI/CPE is wrong, or my consumption habits seems to be of things that are just immune to this "mission accomplished" CPI/CPE data. Side note: I will say the price of chicken and some staple foods decreased/stayed the same for the last 8 months, and that has been nice. I do think inflation is getting betting. but I dont see the victory like the rest of this thread is. I think we're back in the "inflation is transitory" phase. We're gaslighting ourselves to feel better.
Nah, my bear thesis is this: The data is fake. Go to the store yourselve and keep track of prices yourself. Dont get gaslit by the CPI and CPE. CPI/CPE got too political, so now we gotta fudge the numbers to give some people some fake news to feel good about.
inflation isnt down LOL. The CPI/CPE are down, but the entity that compiles them is ran by a group of people who have a major multi-pronged reason to fudge those numbers. My real world experience the last 4 months has been inflation is up, and everyone i talk to about this agrees. CPI can push the mission accomplished all they want, but im not seeing it, or feeling it. Now jobs? yea, plenty of those. The tech recession is really just a micro-bubble pop thats stayed contained that was spurred by over-hiring.
Read the announcement from CPE yourself: https://www.callon.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/366/callon-petroleum-company-announces-the-closing-of-delaware My investment thesis is shorters on CPE are going to sizzle and burn.... why? 1. CPE have 19.64% short 2. CPE have just announced a share buyback commencing today (so will be competing with the shorts closing 3. Oil price is rollicking as OPEC are cutting supply 4. CPE debt is now below $2bn (post close of the transactions today) 5. CPE have consolidated their assets in the Permian with synergies (and are ripe to be bought out at this price) 6. Reduced debt equates to lower interest cost and more free cash flow
No, it is not. Energy commodities make around 4% of the CPI report from 5% last year. Energy services a whole make less than 8%, so it is nothing in the scheme of things, which literally the reason the Feds focus on core CPE. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is pointless, and only morons argue that it needs to be filled to high level all time especially when oil prices are NOT low.
Only 26 more months until CPE hits 2.0%!
volume no better in last 30m, seems like CPE not going to move the needle much tomorrow probably flat till next week
We may climb next week heading into quarter-end. We may climb on lower CPE or CPI in coming weeks if it takes future hikes off the table. My guess is the rally has a little more steam but then it's over and we go down a lot. 8 stocks are holding up the market on AI hype.
Almost every metric outside of corporate greed in core CPE shows deflation toward 2%
The market is pricing in another hike for July already, but yes, 6% probably won't happen. 5.5% could though, and if core CPE doesn't start dropping we could get more hikes. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
there is less than 0 percent change of the US hitting the debt limit or defaulting. Less than 0 percent is also wildly optimistic. There are much higher chances the sun will rise from west than the US defaulting. And the market always moves reverse of logic so save your money. CPE not only stuck but went up today which means inflation is here to stay and the recent rate hikes didnt help it much. Which means there are more hikes coming. BUT the market is moving up. 10% of US owns 90% of stocks and they would rather burn the world down then let the stock market crash.
It’s a good thing CPE numbers don’t come out tomorrow…
>It is clear that the market is not valuing CPE properly. The company has strong fundamentals and is trading at a significant discount to its peers. I believe that the market will eventually realize this and the stock price will rise significantly.
Core CPI is not accelerating though, that's just a lie. And also it's PCE not CPE. I'm guessing you also capitalize all the letters in Fed?
Well the actually look at core CPE. That's what they've said. CPI is a stand in until we get that number. If you look at core CPI, it is accelerating now.
Ha, same strike for the tweet. I just chose mine since the ATM one though. * Looks like that Cheddar guy is about TA, dark pools and stuff * My thesis is just simple momentum on CPE -> somehow that means inflation over -> rally on indebted growth companies
Problem is the CPE data is hotter than expected, Germany's core inflation is hot etc and the market priced in a pivot (weirdly). And the market went stupid and overpriced yesterday. Hold onto thy hat I reckon.
Jobless claims meet expectations, CPE meets expectations because we already know CPI, fed speakers reassure that the banking system is fine, green days ahead
…literally CPE, CPI, and labor reports have shown consumer spending decreasing and the labor market loosening this month. How did you miss this?
CPE, the measure the Fed supposedly prefers, rose from 5.3% to 5.4% in January versus the expectations it would drop to 4.9%. So not only is there not agreement across indicators on inflation right now, but the measure the Fed supposedly uses just came in very hot 3 weeks ago.
I have one very small position in oil stock at the moment, which I am -15% but only a 1.5k position. Like I stated before I have been playing it for well over a year, I am risk off for oil for now but I do believe if it continues to sell off, this will provide a great entry point on some oil stocks. PBR (Brazil) is offering a pretty decent price here and should be considered IMO. To note a few others, CPE, TALO. I am bullish on Copper stocks to be honest with this whole EV thing. They use substantially a lot more copper. This is a LONG play though which I believe will provide some nice returns. On the hiking, I still think we are in for at least a 25bp which may shock markets as it appears they think a pause is about to happen. Really? Inflation is still high and a huge problem. I haven't offloaded my EPV position yet so I will likely take profits off the table. I still think European markets are way over extended, FTSE near highs. I think taking profits is perhaps smart and if it dumps to get back in again. Inflation is pretty bad in Europe and if they turn dovish, inflation is heading to the moon which also doesn't bode well for markets!
The terminal rate needs to be above long run inflation (CPE) for this to resolve. More hikes to come
Those first 4% are covid related supply chain issues that would have resolved themselves even without rate hikes. Core CPE, which is the sticky component of inflation that the fed focuses on, has been stubbornly stuck at 5-6% for a year now.