TTM

bobdevnul

SEC yield is about what you would get if you invest right now. The dividend yield quoted is generally for the trailing twelve months (TTM). Since interest rates started going up starting early last year the TTM yield is not very relevant for making a decision about depositing in a MMF right now. Before the Fed started raising interest rates early last year MMF yield was close to zero. Are you aware that SNAXX has a minimum initial investment of $1,000,000? Schwab has other MMFs with lower initial minimum, e.g. SNOXX with no minimum. BND and MMFs are significantly different creatures for different purposes. MMFs are managed to hold the share price at exactly $1 all the time. There will be no capital gains or losses. MMFs yield changes rapidly with the prevailing short term yields. BND has an average effective maturity of 8.9 years. That means the they are still holding a lot of old low yield bonds. As such, BND share price is moderately influenced by current yields. In a rising interest rate environment, such as we are in now and expect to be in though 2023, share price declines. In the past year BND share price lost 12%. BND is no substitute for a MMF for short term investing. You can lose a lot more money in capital loss than it pays in dividends. BND can be a good bond allocation investment for a longer term without expecting to withdraw, like about 10 years. SGOV and BIL short term bond ETFs are closer to overall MMF performance. Their share price is not very volatile with changes in prevailing interest rate changes.

DepartmentBig2849

appreciate your comment, a guy i watch from time to time has one on mastering TTM squeeze's never really looked too deep into it.. will now

michoriso

You need a trading plan. Learn support and resistance. Watch for patterns. Trade on pattern brakes with volume for confirmation. Learn one stock ticker at first, like SPY or Apple. I say use SPY or Apple because UVXY moves inversely to them. UVXY is a derivative of the VIX. Learn the market internals like the TICK and/or TICK/Q. TICK tracks the NYSE and TICK/Q tracks the Nasdaq. The TICK is usually flat around +/- 200. When above 1000 there is a strong buy program happening. When above 200 up to 999 there is a moderate buy program happening and vice versa for the downside. Same for TICK/Q. Learn to draw Fibonacci retracements on longer time frames for bigger areas of support and resistance. Learn about momentum indicators like MACD, RSI, TTM_Squeeze. Fine tune the process for each individual ticker. Trade small and don't fight your emotions. If a trade is going against your trading plan, get the fuck out and cut your losses. If you plan on doing this as a career it is boring and a long ass grind. But it can be very lucrative if you become successful. Shoot for the consistent small wins (base hits) vs. the 500%+ gains (hitting a home run). The home runs will happen from time to time. You don't always have to be in a trade. There are days when there is no volume and I will sit on my hands and stay away. In the beginning try to buy options further out dated and near the money. That way you have more time to fix your fuck up. Once you become more successful and you know how to become a sniper with your entries and exits, that's when you should try trading 0DTE options but still stick to near the money or in the money strike prices.

Shtonky

Learn how to trade stocks first, then fuck with options. Remember, options are a vessel to trade the underlying stock, not the other way around. Get a good foundation of support and resistance levels, volume, dark pools, and a couple of basic trend indicators like TTM_SQUEEZE, RSI, and Volume Profile. Lastly, if you don’t do anything else, just remember this: IN ORDER FOR OPTIONS TO BE PROFITABLE, THE STOCK NEEDS TO HAVE A LARGE MOVE. IF THE STOCK PRICE DOESBT MOVE FAST AND HARD, YOU’LL GET REKT.

AlphaOne69420

Also, I understand past performance does not indicate future performance. I don’t need a lesson in finance. And actually, P/Es are not an indicator of future returns. Those would be referred to as Forward P/E. P/E is calculated based off current valuation or historical TTM. See below: Current P/E of US (S&P) = 19.7 https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_pea_ratio Current P/E of Europe TTM = 13.05 https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/ Forward P/E here by market: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/mscipe.pdf Sure EU markets are lower P/E but that is not a metric for future outperformance. Because by that we’re the case, then Russia would be the best investment and it’s just not. Russia Forward P/E = 4.08 https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/

ListerineInMyPeehole

TSLA trades at <8x TTM revenue while NVDA trades at 20x. TSLA has 33% revenue growth and 40% EPS growth. NVDA has Jack shit LMAO

bolozaphire

depending on your horizon, from a TTM it has been really underwhelming imo

ReadyTeddy84

Your point is that you can buy individual Treasuries yielding 4.8% or so right now rather than buying an ETF whose TTM yield is like only 1.84% as with SGOV?

spartybasketball

That 1.36% is the TTM yield. It’s 30 day sec yield is 3.63%. To compare, VMFXX TTM yield is 1.55% and 30 day sec yield is 4.5%

thePBRismoldy

The TTM squeeze indicator isn’t there yet, but it’s lining up nicely to get there.

kiwimancy

SEC yield for a bond fund is based on the interest and dividends the fund received over the last 30 days (7 days for a money market fund). If it's not qualified, a field labeled 'yield' of a generic fund is usually the TTM dividend yield (based on the dividends paid by the fund over the last twelve months). Yield of an individual bond usually means Yield to Maturity, the annualized return you would get holding that bond to maturity at its current price.

encore333

Crazy, so just put new wrinkle in grey matter. Profit/earnings derived from closing price ÷ diluted eps. So they lowered their diluted TTM EPS from $1.08 to -0.27 per. Still digesting, but I think that means they are currently not profitable. Bullish

Zetice

TTM?

Delta_Nil

SHOP has lost 3.2 Billion in the TTM... But the Bulls keep buying smh

Frank_Caswole

PE Ratio (TTM) **8,924.50** HOLY FUCK!

Stephen_1984

TTM, I’m just over 0% with dividends. Overall, I’m more strongly profitable.

DartFanatic

> Now the stock trades closer to $20 with a 17B market capitalization. Which is more than established players who produce more cars in a day than Rivian makes in a quarter - don't burn through 6b a year, and pay a dividend. >Making this a 6B company on 1B TTM revenue. Sounds affordable to me as the revenue ramp will continue. Its a car company. Look at where the established players. Tesla trades at an 8x premium to the industry, and Rivian twice that of Tesla. That is ridiculously expensive. >This price is really good entry for a long term hold as the company keeps growing. Rivian is your best bet like buying Tesla stock back in 2012. No. They have a huge market cap. Good luck &#x200B; https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers-by-market-cap/

tdogger88

No one’s growth is what they said it would be a year ago. Nvidia grew -16% last quarter and is trading for a 94 TTM PE (you’d think it’s growing 50% this year) Market is forgiving everything and just blindly buying. Join the party.

SleepyFantasy

Why is PE Ratio (TTM) 2.60? Can anyone explain how they got 2.60?

norcalnatv

>The most straight forward are still Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. The competition for initial services will be brutal. This bet is that one of these guys actually figures out how to monetize services and move their revenue and profit needles significantly. It will take years. Contrast this with a company that sold $15B TTM selling picks and shovels to these guys. nvda

AstockcollapseNow

Forward or TTM?

RnotSPECIALorUNIQUE

https://preview.redd.it/h84djc2g0mha1.png?width=1300&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e39d5521ae3f61e58b749ef407d3d977fe96402f Historically, QS has been slipping down for the past year. Barring news that would turn this thing around since the last bad earnings report, I would say puts seem safe. The MACD just crossed over. The RSI is coming off the top. The price moved away from the top bollinger band. The TTM\_Squeeze is still positive and has been decreasing for 6 days straight. All bearish signals.

ShankThatSnitch

You think that is bad, WING (Wingstop) has a PE of 110. $4.6 Billion market cap, with TTM revenue of $324.6m

RecommendationNo6304

Doesn't look like a bad business, but earnings and revenue are somewhat erratic. Not surprising for a clothing brand. You're looking at a P/E of 11, which is the TTM. That's an all-time high, and considerably higher than any previous year. At 10% growth, that's a PEG of 1.1, which isn't terrible but not a bargain by any means. The balance sheet looks healthy enough. Institutions own 97% and insiders 6%. So there's no buying pressure to expect from market movers. A 10% short interest isn't much of a tailwind when the stock is trading at an all-time high. A 2% dividend is losing money to inflation. Need a pile of *reliable* growth to make that make sense. Clothing brands are mercurial to say the least. Any mean reversion is far more likely to hurt than help. I'd put it on a watch list and employ patience.

RnotSPECIALorUNIQUE

https://preview.redd.it/sfe83vnxjhha1.png?width=1297&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=5ef621774a8a80db2dde38216d4cbe13edc7b8fd SPY has been coming down in the TTM\_Squeeze for the past 6 days. That said, there are instances in the past where a positive and falling TTM\_Squeeze has been coming down but then went back up. Aslo the ETF appears to be in an upward trend since last November. But you do have a MACD ready to cross down, an RSI coming off the top, and the price peeling away from the upper bollinger. If I had to make a bet, I would say PUTS for next week, but I feel like there are stronger other plays which give me more confidence.

RnotSPECIALorUNIQUE

looking at PTON shows that it is currently 5 bars past the peak. The TTM\_Squeeze histogram is still positive though, so there is definitely room for this stock to fall more. The past year has been a down trend for this stock overall. https://preview.redd.it/ztbt3ennwgha1.png?width=1421&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=b452f2acabf477c004c78e484d556ff2edd14360

Frosty_Trader_

NU $5.50. Unlike Sofi their TTM is -0.028. Big buy going into earnings next week

BigBaggersinc

I have a scanner that I believe is going to make me a profitable trader. I have a scanner that I have been pretty successful with when combined with the TTM Squeeze indicator. I once had no one to teach me how to trade options and I learned on my own. Now I have opened a discord community that discusses during trading hours and throws ideas around. I offer my trades as well for educational purposes. I currently have only a few members and the discord is only a few days old however it is a very productive discussion always and would love to have more voices to hear from. Please DM if interested.

trey412

please clarify how its peers are more profitable... OSH is being acquired for $10.5B and its financials are far inferior to CANOs... For the TTM, OSH has Rev = $1.98B; NI = -$515M; EBITDA = -$408M; and debt = 2.26B whereas CANO has Rev = $2.55B ($570M>OSH); NI = -$58M ($457M>OSH); EBITDA = -$13M ($395M>OSH); and debt = 1.41B ($850M<OSH)... The only thing OSH has that is better than CANO is cash. OSH has approx. $543M vs $24M for CANO; although in a buyout scenario the cash wouldn't be much of a factor.

VeryStableGenius

My opinion: long term rates (TIPs) are 1.5%. This means you can safely get 1.5% over inflation. This is a more than since 2011. Historically, equity risk premium is 4%, so stocks should be paying 4%+1.5%=5.5%, which is a PE=1/5.5%=18.2. Today, TTM P/E is 22, so stocks are overpriced by 1-18.2/22=17%, and SP500 should be at 3300. A bubble, but not too horrible. The sort of bubble the market can grow out of without popping. But 2023 earnings might be hit hard by the higher interest rates. However, CAPE is 30. If you believe in mean reversion of earnings, CAPE is the measure to use, and stocks are overpriced by about 1-18.2/30=40%, and SP500 should be at 2400. All of this is predicated on the idea that stocks should earn 4% more than the risk-free real rate, which is not a fact of nature, but merely happens to be true historically.

callmecrude

This P/E is correct. Market cap: $1.04T TTM earnings: -$2.72B P/E = -370

kiwimancy

BND has 3.96% SEC yield and 4.6% portfolio yield to maturity (minus 0.03% expenses). I think you are looking at its TTM yield. SHYG has 7.65% SEC yield and 7.28% portfolio YTM (minus 0.30% expenses). SHYG is a junk bond fund, so you will see pretty high correlation to stocks.

michoriso

Support and resistance. Learn pattern breakouts with volume confirmation. MACD, RSI, TTM_Squeeze are all lagging indicators but they can give you a big picture view on a longer time frame. I make entries and exits on the 1 min chart, use 3, 5, 15 min charts simultaneously to see what possible areas to watch out for. UVXY usually moves inversely to SPY/SPX, AAPL, used to work with AMZN before split, but now not as much. When the VIX is low look out below. When VIX is high, it's time to buy.

FakingInterest

Also, their cash position is shrinking because they spent 41bn in stock buybacks over the TTM

FakingInterest

This, 54bn of operating cash flow in the TTM period.

StockheartGlomgold

I do a lot 0DTE options on SPY,QQQ,SPX,NDX… if I day trade stocks then I usually buy at lest one week out to allow for wiggle room. Indicators: TTM_Squeeze, VWAP, POC, 100, 50, 21 SMA’s. Timeframes I use: 3m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1hr, for entry and exits but look to the daily for setups using ATR’s and reversion to the mean.. Good luck!! Remember the best way to make money is to sell not buy… Stick with CCS & PCS.

jwyker

The TTM Squeeze in my opinion would be worthless if I didn’t use it with my scanner and have it alert me when a squeeze fires

Degenereth

TTM Squeeze, like all other crayon analysis, has absolutely 0 predictive capability. You are also a liar or you are a complete noob to come in here acting like your ToS scanner and TTM Squeeze study give you an edge as a dipshit retail investor. Haven't looked at your profile yet so it could be either. Won't be surprised to see a discord link...

No-Bridge-7124

Hi. How do you use the TTM SQUEEZE indicator ?

jwyker

Let me tell you. Learn how to use the TTM SQUEEZE indicator. I only day trade ODTE and I stopped trading for a while during the bear market and just started again a few weeks ago. I have turned 200$ into over 4000$. I wouldn’t be able to do that without the TTM Squeeze indicator. Let me say, I do have a really good thinkorswim scanner, however I only enter trade that fire a squeeze on the 30 minute time frame within the first 15-20 minutes of opening. Today it was tickers AI, and AXP. On Jan 27th it was AMZN and SQ. And on January 23rd I did spy calls. I can’t share my scanner publicly but if you are interested I’m willing to talk privately. Basically every Friday I get alerted a few stocks and I pick which ever one looks like it has most profit potential and load up on options within 15 minutes of opening. The 30 min squeeze as well as my scanner always gives me stocks that are straight runners for the first half of the day at least.

JakeTappersCat

NVDA's report is going to look pretty terrible compared to AMD. They are comparing to FQ1 2022 and they are expected to both have lower revenue and much lower EPS. I would not want to be long Nvdia into earnings, their TTM EPS is historically much lower (50 vs 80 right now) and they usually perform better, while at the same time AMD's EPS is much lower and performing much better

Frosty_Trader_

The earnings quarter after quarter are great. The TTM is -0.028. They are only below $5 because they traded with the market last year.

Severe_Set5371

Forward P/E is like 24 and Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) is 50. That was an expensive mix up and you should probably get a QA AND QC checklist going forward.

Individual-Being-639

Forward PE 28 and TTM is 35

whiskeyinthejaar

Does the profitability include or exclude Stock Base Comp? A company that lost 390M in NI gave 130M in SBC on a TTM basis

ytfyytvbjygb

It is not up over 100% in a few days. 54% short interest is massive. You are skewed from digesting conspiracy theories from financial incels. It is down 93% TTM. You are a fucking idiot.

Shocknaweem

Gosh darn government always tryin' to mess with our ride biz. HMC, NSANF, TM, TSLA, TTM, they all know it ain't just 'bout Tesla, them other folks ain't got the scale. But even with the chip shortage and all them lockdowns, them electric vehicles still risin' like a hog on a hot summer day. 44.7% of our rides exports got some electricity flowin' through 'em, value's gone up seven times! Reckon it's a good sign, like a fly fishin' in a cool mountain stream.

garciaomer56

The TTM and EPS figures for LASE show their solid performance, great analysis!

All_TheWay82

What most don’t grasp about the P/E (current 86.16) is that even if NVIDIA hits on the expectations of 0.81 EPS, their TTM EPS drops to 1.98 (0.64+0.26+0.27+0.81 = 1.98). This means a share value of 202.56 AH would be a P/E (TTM) of 102.3. If it maintains its current P/E, the share price would drop to $170.59. So you are correct in it being overvalued for their market (will be the highest P/E ratio for their market). Not financial advice.

OutOfBananaException

The month on month number, which is the best indicator we have of *current* inflation, is -0.1%. That means prices are down 0.1% from November. Only the trailing 12 month (TTM) number is 6.1%. That number was always going to be slow to come down, that's how a rolling average works. If you slam on the brakes and come to a dead stop, is the average speed from the last second more or less accurate - than the average speed from the last 12 seconds? As for buying things, I provided you with clear examples from people buying things. So it's pretty clear people who do buy things, are seeing something different. That doesn't mean thats representative of the whole nation, but it does mean you need to stop with the "but you're not shopping" claims.

gottahavetegriry

Their free cash flow TTM is about the same as their current cash on hand. I haven’t done much research on them, but they have low gross margins too. Idk if they have available lines of credit, but if not then expect them to be issuing lots of shares in 1-2 years if their financials don’t improve You’ve probably done much more research than me, I’m just highlighting some risks you should look out for

Manic_Mania

Tesla TTM squeeze indicators on the 15 minute. Possible 170+ today

ItalianRicePie

I don't normally plug companies I'm invested in here, but I've been blown away with the performance of DCGO since deSPAC. One of the few that have consistently met or exceeded their SPAC projections and quarterly guidance numbers. I've lost count the number of times they have raised guidance over the last two years. Initial SPAC investor presentation is [here](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1822359/000121390021014150/ea137180ex99-2_motionacq.htm). They initially projected 155M and 267M revenue for 2021 and 2022 respectively and ended up doing 318M for 2021 (+239% YoY) and guiding to 430-440M for 2022 (+35-38% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA they projected 6M and 43M and ended up at 25M for 2021 and guiding 41-46M for 2022. What's even more impressive is they achieved good numbers in 2022 against a backdrop of declining COVID testing revenue. COVID related testing revenue made up around 35% of Q3 2021 revenue but just a mid single digit percentage of Q3 2022 revenue. Despite this, they still managed 22% YoY growth in Q3 2022 which represents non-COVID revenue growth of somewhere between 70-75% YoY. For 2022, non-COVID revenue is going to be around 65% higher than 2021 and given COVID revenue now represents a very small fraction of total revenue, I'm confident their impressive growth hasn't just been a COVID mirage and they will sustain it through 2023 and beyond. The company currently sits on around 180M cash, almost no debt on the books, and have a 90M line of credit they can draw upon if needed. Given they are also cash flow positive, this puts them in a great position to drive further growth through acquisitions. They appear to already be ramping up their M&A activity with 3 acquisitions in July 2022 and another in October 2022 vs just one acquisition in 2021. Dollar general [also recently announced a pilot program](https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2023/01/26/dollar-general), where DCGO will partner with them in a mobile health initiative. The deal involves the setup of mobile health centers operating out of vans in parking lots to improve health access in rural areas. Dollar General have been very vocal in their desire to expand into health care services so if this proves to be successful and Dollar General extends the contract, this could be an enormous revenue driver for DCGO in the future. They are also rapidly expanding into the UK with their UK based subsidiary being awarded [three additional contracts in Q3](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220920005211/en/DocGo-Continues-Growth-Track-in-UK-with-Three-New-Contracts) and a [further contract in Q4](https://nz.news.yahoo.com/docgo-awarded-mobile-healthcare-contract-123500337.html). In addition they acquired Community Ambulance Service Ltd, a UK provider of emergency and non-emergency transport services for 4.8M pounds in October. DCGO currently trades at $9.89, up almost 50% from early December but still below SPAC valuation. It has a market cap of 1B and Enterprise value of 850M. EV / Revenue (TTM) is just 1.87 while EV / EBITDA (TTM) is around 18. I believe these metrics, combined with impressive growth and improving profitability, compare very well to other growth companies in the telehealth and mobile health space like HIMS, TDOC, AMWL and UPH.

VeryStableGenius

Maybe US assets flew higher. US assets would be yielding historical returns (according to Vanguard) if they cost half as much as they do. Then CAPE would be a historical 15, as well. The anomaly is current TTM PE, which is 21, only about 16% over the historical norm.

misteratoz

I'm really confused what constitutes "independent research" to you. The info I've cited comes from government mandated documents that are required by the SEC to be reported. They are numbers legally provided by all corporations in America on a quarterly basis. If you have a specific claim or number you'd like to refute I'm all ears. "Name one thing in your thesis that you've independently verified" Sure. I've compared sales volumes data for the past several years GM, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, and Stellantis to Tesla. I've also compared the companies gross profit margins, operating margins, ROIC, debt/income ratio, and TTM revenue changes. I tracked this info on a spread sheet and created my own valuation models. You might know this if you actually bothered to read the sources I linked above. So again....do you have an actual critique of my data or are you just trolling?

TSLA4LIFE1

So a business with <20% margins, high capex, and a arguably not really differentiated product is worth a nearly 50PE? When you take away their net income from non-auto you get the 50 from the 40TTM

hermeticstudy

The headline pertains to wi-fi / bluetooth combo chip only. That's roughly 8-9% of TTM revenue and probably 7-8% EBITDA since wireless is lower than corp avg margin anyway. I'm not saying buying puts is wrong, but this is a weak reason to do it.

Cocaine-powered_Bear

I said it before: we should all stop with the recession talk as the SP500 didn't even price in a recession in 2022. The problem are the multiples that are still way too high. [https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe](https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe) historic P/E is also in bubble territory (it's around 18,7 which is the average TTM P/E ratio of the SP500 of the last 5 years when we had massive QE) It should be closer to the 10 year average of 16.9 which implies a downside of about 10% or an index value of 3600. The problem imo is the anchoring bias of market participants. We had hughe returns for over a decade and we were fine with high multiples. But the equity risk premium has declined since rates have risen so indexes are just not worth it imo. There's still value in individual stocks. But I'd only invest in stocks with a very strong market position that can pass on prices.

greytoc

I think you may be missing a few key pieces of information. You may want to read over the FAQ in the TTM investor site - [https://www.tatamotors.com/investors/sec-filing/](https://www.tatamotors.com/investors/sec-filing/) What you hold is depository shares of Tata Motors and the company has decided to end their ADR program. Sometimes you can convert the ADS to underlying foreign ordinaries. You would have to discuss with your broker if that is an option that they support. However, I doubt that Vanguard would support it since Vanguard restricts OTC stocks and afaik, Vanguard doesn't have international trading so they likely do not offer access to the BSE or NSE exchanges. Note that under Indian law, the ADS cannot trade OTC. If you don't surrender your ADS's - the depository (in this case Citibank) will sell it anyways. I suspect that Vanguard may liquidate your position. Forced liquidations from reorgs may incur a fee so you can sell it before Jan 23, 2023 before the stock delists. Tl;dr - call your broker and discuss your options but I suspect that selling the ADS's will be simplest solution unless you want to deal with the complications of holding shares of a company that trades on the BSE/NSE in Rupees.

OutOfBananaException

Inflation is around 2% though, the TTM inflation was never going to dump to 2% rapidly (without severe deflation).

Silly_Pen_7902

Their TTM Net Income is $12B. They sold 1.3M cars. Let's round up and call it 10k net margin per car. Well, they just dropped prices by 13K for MY, which is more than their net margin. Estimates are 2M cars for CY23, but looks like Tesla knows there's no demand for that at 63k per car, so they had to drop prices.

Monster_Grundle

Vix 18.xx historically a good time for puts (TTM)

GranPino

I'm afraid if they can keep milking Marvel and Star Wars with their policy of producing too much shit that people are getting exhausted. Usually there are 2 approaches to manage franchises/IP. To burn fast, or to burn slow. Usually the slow approach generates more profits in the long term, as the IP resists much better. People can get tired if too much material is launched. For example, I already stopped trying to watch every Marvel/Star Wars film. This is purely anecdotal, but I have seen data about how Im not the only one. They have a 55 PE TTM, and it has been already 3 years of low profits. In case they recover, they will just have a 15-20 PE. It doesnt look so good upside. Especially when there are big competition risks. You have other big companies willing to invest too much CAPEX in new content. Apple and Amazon can afford to lose money. I wouldnt be surprised if Microsoft buys Netflix and does the same. Somehow I like much more PARA because it has attractive prices to be purchased by the competence, and capturing their most valuable IPs at a cheaper price than producing equivalent content.

Prestigious_Meet820

In my opinion theyre all expensive companies. They trade with high multiples of market to book value and price/earnings/CF metrics. Not to say it isnt justified given their performances are phenomenal but all upside predictions are pricing in growth using assumptions and it is very possible they can drop a significant amount still. Although they are cheaper than before im wouldnt compare themselves to their previous levels as it wouldnt mean much. I prefer to pick my investment without using as little assumptions as possible: I picked META at $92 (250B cap at the time, 180B assets, $105b tangible, 60B cash and marketable securities, strong FCF on a TTM, strong rev and margins close to peak) but im getting ready to sell incase things go south since things seem to be going to well for my liking. I also chose to invest in DIS (got in at $90ish) instead of NFLX although retrospectively i would have done much better doing the opposite, but i still think it is better from a risk/reward perspective.

backfire97

So this is brought up a lot with Amazon, but it is well known that the PE ratio is so high because they are re-investing into themselves. Copied from investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070214/how-can-pricetoearnings-pe-ratio-mislead-investors.asp "An Example of a P/E Ratio Comparison Between Stocks A quick look at P/E ratios for Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) illustrates the dangers of using only the P/E ratio to evaluate a company. In mid-December, 2018, Apple traded at $165.48 with a P/E ratio (TTM) of 13.89. 1  2  On the same day, Amazon’s stock price was $1,591.91 with a P/E ratio of 89.19. 3  4  One of the reasons Amazon’s P/E is so much higher than Apple's is that its efforts to expand aggressively on a wide scale have helped keep earnings somewhat suppressed and the P/E ratio high. The P/E ratio should be used with a variety of other analysis tools to analyze a stock. If these two stocks were compared based on P/E alone, it would be impossible to make a reasonable evaluation. A low P/E ratio does not automatically mean a stock is undervalued. Similarly, a high P/E ratio does not necessarily mean a company is overvalued."

VeryStableGenius

I just got some 1. Paying 4.85% dividend ($2.64/yr). 2. PE is 7 at TTM earnings of 7 3. Pre-covid, earnings were, say, $4.50. If it reverts to these, then PE=13, still nice, and dividend looks sustainable. 3. Writing a 1 year covered call @65 yields $9, lowering effective price to 50. Over this year, it could fall by 20%, and I'd break even.

SpanCarvan

The market is giving PARA a higher multiple based on invested capital and EBITDA. 7.6x vs. 5.5x. That's a higher TTM multiple. Even though it's TTM, on a normalized basis, the forward EBITDA would prolly grow faster at PARA and hence the premium over WBD. If you look just at EPS, it may not make sense. * Para market cap = $13.1b, + 12.5b in net debt = $25.6b in invested capital; TTM Ebitda = 3.3b; multiple = 7.6x * WBD market cap = $30.1b, + $47.4b = $77.5b in invested capital; TTM Ebitda = $13.9b= multiple = 5.5x

shadylex

From an article in July “In the last trailing twelve months (TTM) alone, Tesla generated US$1.6bln in revenues from selling carbon credits, comprising approximately 10% of its US$16.1bln underlying earnings.” Yeah okay

WenMunSun

FCF is where the real story is. Look at TTM FCF for TSLA compared to F, GM, VW and TM. Then look at quarterly FCF. Tesla's 3rd Quarter FCF annualized is already multiples higher than all of the others and it's quickly growing by alot.

deathpoker31

If you only look at the ex-dividend date then yes it does go down by the dividend amount. But the company with a dividend backed by their earnings is a stromger company the vast majority of the time then a company who does not have a dividend. It is bad to sell capital in a retirement account, stocks that pay dividends don't lose the exact amount of the dividend yield year over year, if it is a strong dividend yielding stock it will match with the market the same way most other stocks will match with the market. Look at JEPI, a covered call ETF. TTM yield of ~12% that has lost 11% of their stock price. Looks like they lost exactly the dividend yield yes? Well this year the s&p was down ~20% so it still beat the market in just stock losses by ~9% while making you 1% in dividends.

yldf

True, I’ll remove TTM

md___2020

There’s no such thing as “TTM Enterprise Value”. EV is similar to a balance sheet metric in that it is point in time. I.e you could say that the EV of TSLA is $x as of a certain date. Income statement metrics like EBITDA are what you use periods for like TTM.

yldf

This is bullshit. First of all, don’t look at EV and EBITDA (also called "bullshit earnings", Charlie Munger). But if you do, please use the real values. Enterprise value of VOW3 is less than 50 billion according to your chart, but TTM enterprise value is 190 billion (I suppose EUR, so 200 billion USD). That’s wrong by a factor at least FOUR for VOW3 alone! A chart where you deceive others by using fake numbers is not ok!

tachyonvelocity

I see this site posted all the time, and it's completely misleading. If you checked their data, they use inflation-adjusted earnings of 193 and nominal S&P value of ~3850 to get 20 PE. I don't need to tell you why the large amount of inflation affecting earnings will make any sort of derived metric such as TTM PE be misleading. Given the upvotes here, no wonder retail investors are so misinformed. [Here are the actual TTM earnings for last 4 quarters](https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf): 222.88, that's a trailing PE of 17.3.

Rallefa

This became much longer than I intended. I did not go into their 10k’s or 10q’s and just used yahoo finance, so take this with a grain of salt. From what I could gather, some of their competitors are Mondelez international, flower foods, and Hostess brands. Grupo Bimbo, Hostess brands, Flower foods, Mondelez p/s (ttm): 0.93, 2.37, 1.3, 3.05 p/b (mrq): 3.55, 1.67, 4.23, 3.42 p/e (trailing): 17.3, 18.55, 27.9, 29.62 From a glance their current p/s is 0.93, their p/b is 3.55 and their trailing p/e is 17.3. They seem to be priced lower than their competitors and looking at this website (https://companiesmarketcap.com/grupo-bimbo/ps-ratio/) it seems the p/e is at a low point and also lower than the current s&p500 average (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio). To really get an idea of whether it is undervalued you might want to do a dcf analysis. Margins: Grupo Bimbo, Hostess brands, Flower foods, Mondelez Net margin (TTM): 5.4%, 12.8%, 4.7%, 10.3% Operating margin (TTM): 11.0%, 16.4%, 6.4%, 13.2% The margins are quite low which might indicate that the industry is probably quite competitive. Grupo Bimbo does not seem to have a competitive advantage over its peers. EPS (diluted) growth: 2021, 2020, 2019 Grupo Bimbo: 3.55, 2.00, 1.36, Hostess brands: 0.86, 0.51, 0.55 Flower foods: 0.97, 0.72, 0.78 Mondelez: 3.04, 2.47, 2.65 From this it seems the EPS of Grupo Bimbo has been growing more consistently and faster than its competitors. However, you may want to dig down in the 10Ks and get more data to actually find a trend. Returns (I use net income (TTM) divided by (MRQ) total assets, shareholder’s equity and invested capital listed on yahoo finance): Grupo Bimbo, Hostess brands, Flower foods, Mondelez Return on Assets: 6.1%, 4.7%, 6.6%, 4.6% Return on equity: 20.8%, 9.3%, 15.3%, 11.8% Return on invested capital: 10.6%, 5.8%, 9.3%, 6.5% It seems like Grupo Bimbo is using their assets a little bit better than their peers. Grupo Bimbo, Hostess brands, Flower foods, Mondelez Tangible book value/share (mrq): -6.55\*, -6.07, 1.02, -3.82 Working capital/ (mrq): negative, positive, positive, negative Current ratio: 0.73, 2.08, 1.4, 0.69 Debt to equity: 2.33, 1.0, 1.33, 1.55 Interest expense/operating income: 16.2%, 18.4%, 2.1%, 9.6% \*Note that the Grupo Bimbo number might be in Mexican pesos (couldn’t figure this out). I don’t like these numbers. Most of the companies’ assets are actually goodwill, so apart from flower foods they all have negative tangible book values. Both Grupo Bimbo and Mondelez also have negative working capital and therefore low current ratios which I think is worrying. Additionally Grupo Bimbo has a debt to equity above 2 but when you again take into account that most of these companies assets consist of goodwill it seems like they are quite highly leveraged. Lastly, Grupo Bimbo is paying a substantial amount of its operating income as interest expenses. I am not gonna go into the cash flow statements here as this is already much longer than I intended. All in all it seems Grupo Bimbo is priced slightly cheaper than its average and a little bit cheaper than its peers. It has a nice EPS growth for the last 3 years and meh returns similar to its peers. What I really don’t like about the company and its peers is the fact that it has really low margins but seems to be quite leveraged. Therefore, I don’t think I would buy this stock.

Billionairess

Im no tesla fan but TTM toyota made $270b in revenue while tesla made $75b. However tesla has 2 times more net profit in the same period. Toyota mkt cap is at $180-190b? while tesla is at $380b. Minus the hype which has "decayed" the past few months, $70-80 share price seems reasonable if we're going by profitablity. Of course gross margins gonna tank in 2023, so maybe $50? Idk.

Jeffbak

Operating margins were 5.29% in 2021 and the TTM have been 2.57% and about to drop further once 2022 is concluded with it's own Q4 earnings report out. When Bezos told small retailers that he would "eat their margins for lunch" by disrupting their industry, by saying that he didn't mean his margins were better, he meant that he is the literal jabba the hut about to eat your margins for lunch because his scale (size) is so much larger.

notgreatwithstocks

If they were scaling at 10-50% per year and were on their way to profitability like any good growth company sure go ahead . But when your revenue has declined significantly for the last 5 years , with a negative net income , a negative ebitda TTM , a negative PE (since they continue to make nothing ) , a negative net income margin , common equity drilled all the way down , EBIT margin negative , FCF down , FCF margin down , operating income down and negative , negative price to cash flow , ROE embarrassing low , same with return on assets , total assets down , tangible book value negative The company doesn’t deserve a higher market cap because it is literally trash . This doesn’t lead to them being undervalued , it leads them to be highly shorted as a speculative company with a chance of going bankrupt. You can start here I wrote this when I bought at 5$ and sold at 28$ . Company is trash always was . Play the pump and dumps . Take a year to learn how to actually trade . When you know companies are trash you don’t fall in love and don’t get stuck . When the trade changes (Ryan Cohen selling , volume gone , denied at resistance , pumpers out , #1 on the gamma list , dilution ) How many chances could you have lost less and had a better opportunity elsewhere . Instead your in a group with a bunch of people you don’t know losing money together

persua

TTM isn’t proper to look at here, SPAXX is significantly above 0.5%. I use that or SPRXX, both in 4% range

grizzly_teddy

> For teslas valuation to make any sense they need to…..create as much as the entire car industry combined Flat out incorrect. They have 2x-3x margins. So that means they need to make **half**. But you are forgetting Tesla energy, which by the end of the year, will be making at least $2-$3b profit per quarter. Considering the high margins and even faster growth than vehicles, and how easy it is to scale, and that it is recession proof, and that demand is nearly limitless for megapacks - Tesla energy should get a TTM of 100. That would mean that by the end of 2023, Tesla energy will be worth at least $200b fair value. > They need to have at least 50% of the market. No. No they do not. That would be 38M cars. If they sold 38M cars at even half their current margin, they would be worth $5T. > And you are aware tesla has never made a pick-up truck yes? They are the ones playing catch-up lol. Making a vehicle electric is easy, making a vehicle is not. Being 'first' is completely irrelevant if your product sucks compared to the one that comes the following year. They will deliver first trucks this year. What is your point? And it's a completely different truck that is designed to be mass produced and cost significantly less. It will have higher towing capacity, faster charging, better charging network, more horsepower - literally every metric will be better - and at the same time they will be able to scale faster and build more of them for an actual profit. The idea that Tesla is 'catching up' to manufacturers who are making Trucks that they can barely build to scale and don't make money on - is just a dumb take. I don't know what else to say. Being first only matters if you actually have some sort of advantage. Being first in of itself doesn't matter.

Vast_Cricket

I look at RSI and TTM squeeze. Volumn matters.

Ehralur

They're nowhere near 19B. Currently at $11.2B TTM, probably ~$13B after Q4 earnings. PE of 28 is still really good for a company growing top line by 50% and bottom line by 140% though.

3my0

Anyone that mentions TTM P/E as an argument for overvalued/undervalued without account for growth is just as stupid as someone using 1Y returns to do the same FYI

resumethrowaway222

What cashflow metric are you using? TM has a bit over 2X the TTM EBITDA of TSLA ($34b vs $16b).

babybananahammock

You’re correct. It’s 3am and I pulled the quarterly TTM, not the actual quarterly. My apologies, thanks for the correction.

Prestigious_Meet820

Picked up some meta in the 90s because it was a good deal in my eyes as it was given a disproportionate beating, was 250b mkt cap with 170B assets (100B tangible), low PE for industry and annual rev of like 30B or so with strong margins, strong FCF (from TTM perspective), and a huge cash pile of like 60b including marketable securities. I still think its a fair price, but it isnt as apparent as it was from 90-100 where it wasnt debatably priced as a growth stock. I think the market would react favourably to buybacks as there is much negative sentiment into the metaverse investment and its impact on the bottomline, atleast in the short-run. My personal opinion is investing in the metaverse is a good thing as the the company has to be proactive with respect to innovation in the potential emerging market. Buybacks would improve ROA and ROE, but would diminish its potential growth which prospects which is what caused this stock to reach such heights (to a level i wouldnt touch).

KMKtwo-four

>TTM revenue has tripled. TTM net income went from negative to $11 billion net profit. Operating margin went from negative 3.42% to industry leading 15%. So it’s only living up to its 2019 valuation then.

tech01x

The underlying business has changed a lot since the end of 2019. TTM revenue has tripled. TTM net income went from negative to $11 billion net profit. Operating margin went from negative 3.42% to industry leading 15%.

hateusrnames

While I can easily see the share price back in that range, I don't think it'll happen between now and 3 days after valentines day. I wish you luck, their Orlando park was definitely busy as hell over the xmas to nye break. But I haven't done any real research on DIS in sometime. IMHO, broad market is bearish for a bit longer, TTM is done considerably and I can see it having more to go on the downside.

Missreaddit

Free cash flow over the TTM was almost 485 million on 1.5B revenue. Having a loss of 10 million over that period isn't concerning in the slightest. This is a very well run company with wild margins. Gotta dig deeper than net income, especially with growth companies

NovelPolicy5557

I think you're right, it is a bargain. It's funny how all the people calling you a names won't provide the metrics they're using to justify calling it overvalued. Take a look at last Q's statement of operations from the shareholder deck, then extrapolate revenue and earnings using the just-announced production and deliveries: https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure I'm getting a TTM P/E of ~25 on a non-GAAP basis (~30 GAAP), and a forward P/E of about 16 to 20 (non-GAAP). Then look at trends for free cashflow, debt to assets and operating margins.

vada_buffet

Aren't their TTM earnings negative? Very concerning especially as revenues seem to have increased 25%?

Cut_Copies

TTM P/E ratio is based on a completely different macro environment than the one we're in today (hence the miss on deliveries) -- forward P/E is based on generous estimates from mgmt guiding a 50% CAGR for at least several years going forward, which people are realizing is probably pixie dust given the macro picture and increased competition in EV's. Margins are also going to get squeezed. There's very little to like in the fundamentals right now.

SeizeValue

When $TSLA TTM PE is around 16 we may be back to somewhat realistic valuations. If their 2022 YoY growth decline is any indicator, 2023 is going to be a rough year for them.

Ehralur

> Ok yeah, your math needs some work. The main thing is the growth rate, which is a percentage. 220%=2.2, not 220. So correcting just that, historical PEG is 16. So you don't even understand how a PEG works, why are you lecturing other people...? [You divide by the growth rate in numbers, so 20% becomes 20, not 1.2.](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp) The way you're calculating it, a company with a growth rate of 10% would need a PE of 1000 to have a fair PEG of 1... :'D > You're correct that 220% isn't reasonable to expect going forward, but it's not just that. A big chunk of that 'growth' rate in this case was caused by the fact that TSLA had a lot of expenses related to opening new factories in 2021, but those costs were a lot lower in 2022. The opposite is true actually. Tesla's investments into those factories increased during 2022 (by roughly 50%), despite not earning a lot of revenue yet. 2023 should see better margins all other things equal (which will likely not be the case with ASPs coming down) as these factories start making money. > To get a better idea of actual historical growth, we should exclude most of those expenses and focus on gross profit to get our growth rate, since new factories are one-time expenses. There will always be some cost related to retooling and updating for new models, but those costs are much lower. That's fair, but gross margins only decreased by 200 basis points 2022, and this was because the investments in Berlin and Texas moved from R&D to opex. > In this case TTM gross profit is 19.923B vs. 10.861B as of Q3 2021 for a more realistic Y/Y growth rate of 83.4% putting this back into your calculation, we get a trailing PEG of 389/11.2/0.83 = 41.8. That's fair. I like this way of calculating a PEG that's more long term sustainable, but in that case the PEG would still be 0.4 as I showed above. > As for forward PEG, I wouldn't trust a 5 year estimate on any automotive company in the current market. There are just too many volatile factors. If you were looking at something stable like a regulated utility or a savings and loan bank (investment banks are trouble, as we saw in 2008), you could probably rely on that. The 40% rate I quoted was from what you said originally, using Tesla's own reported growth rate in sales. This isn't the worst estimate, but it's also extremely optimistic. Tesla is dealing with rising costs of several key materials and decreasing margins due to more competition from all the big players. We'll know for sure when the 10K comes out, but if Tesla manages 40% Y/Y gross profit growth I'll be shocked. I think here we just disagree on Tesla's position in the market, but that's fine. :)

orangustang

Ok yeah, your math needs some work. The main thing is the growth rate, which is a percentage. 220%=2.2, not 220. So correcting just that, historical PEG is 16. Dividing market cap by total earnings to get P/E is fine, but some outlets don't refresh market cap often enough to be accurate on something as volatile as TSLA. If you're sure you have an accurate market cap it's fine, but it's more concrete to use the last price divided by TTM EPS, which is what I used. You're correct that 220% isn't reasonable to expect going forward, but it's not just that. A big chunk of that 'growth' rate in this case was caused by the fact that TSLA had a lot of expenses related to opening new factories in 2021, but those costs were a lot lower in 2022. To get a better idea of actual historical growth, we should exclude most of those expenses and focus on gross profit to get our growth rate, since new factories are one-time expenses. There will always be some cost related to retooling and updating for new models, but those costs are much lower. In this case TTM gross profit is 19.923B vs. 10.861B as of Q3 2021 for a more realistic Y/Y growth rate of 83.4% putting this back into your calculation, we get a trailing PEG of 389/11.2/0.83 = 41.8. As for forward PEG, I wouldn't trust a 5 year estimate on any automotive company in the current market. There are just too many volatile factors. If you were looking at something stable like a regulated utility or a savings and loan bank (investment banks are trouble, as we saw in 2008), you could probably rely on that. The 40% rate I quoted was from what you said originally, using Tesla's own reported growth rate in sales. This isn't the worst estimate, but it's also extremely optimistic. Tesla is dealing with rising costs of several key materials and decreasing margins due to more competition from all the big players. We'll know for sure when the 10K comes out, but if Tesla manages 40% Y/Y gross profit growth I'll be shocked.

Ehralur

> Where are you getting these numbers? There are a few ways to calculate PEG that change the answer somewhat, but using basic EPS for the last 4 quarters, price at close, and 40% growth, Tesla's P/E/G is 323.18/3.61/0.4 = 85.3. This is about the most charitable estimate I can give, and it's miles away from 0.25. That would indeed make the valuation insanely low, but it's not factual. Dunno where you're getting those numbers, but Tesla's TTM net income after Q3 was $11.2B, not $3.6B. And their market cap is currently $389B. Their growth was 11.2 / 3.5 = 3.2. So 220%. That gives a PEG of 389 / 11.2 / 220 = 0.16. Now obviously this is useless, because they won't be growing 220% in the future, so I used Yahoo Finance's PEG numbers based on 5 yr expectations. This is based on analyst consensus, which has traditionally been underestimating the earnings massively, so it's a pretty conservative number.

AmericanSahara

As a customer, I remember years ago VZ was the best company. But VZ made cuts in customer service and tried to replace it with artificial intelligence leaving customers stranded. After being damaged by a couple unresolved problems with Z, I found that TMUS was much better for those seeking quality and reliability. I believe millions of people feel the same way and have switched to TMUS and maybe try T again. The TTM dividend yield currently looks good for VZ, but a large dividend yield per year isn't always sustainable. If people like me will never trust VZ enough to try VZ's 5G, the 5G VZ has invested money in maybe a disappointment for VZ, forcing VZ to cut dividends. I believe TMUS and T will do better than VZ in the growth in 5G over the next few years. If you are looking for a dividend, I think T would be a better choice than VZ for the next 5 years. TMUS doesn't have a dividend.

4leafplover

Yield you’re looking at is likely TTM. SEC 30 day has been around 4.3%

pml1990

For the fucking last time, stop fucking using TTM numbers ffs. If your research consists of looking at the TTM dividend yield on Yahoo finance, stop picking stocks. Last q, it’s paying .10 per share in dividend while earning .13 EPS (ie, 77% of its earning). It’s revenue is declining by 50% y-o-y and rate still has not peaked. Refinancing has dried up to practically nothing, the numbers just haven’t shown up in quarterly reports yet. UWMC and Rocket went public at the height of the refinancing cycle when rates went to zero. Obviously they were showing crazy earnings based on a pulling forward refinancing demand. That sugar crush has ended. Its annual revenue in 2019, ie., before all the interest rate craziness of 2020-21 was about 1/5th to 1/3rd of what the 2020 or TTM numbers are showing. UWMC operating income in 2019 was 1/3rd of what 2021 was. Now look at all this and you tell me if it will be able to keep its dividend yield in 2023.