TWFG
TWFG, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Mentions (24Hr)
0.00% Today
Reddit Posts
Mentions
Insurance - big fan of TWFG.
it is an ASCII art (American Standard Code for Information Interchange) of a woman's bottom, which is where I think TWFG is at this moment, bottomed, am a chartist first, fundamentals follow. Nice find too, am watching now. XLF has been down hard, bounces incoming.
Been following TWFG since it IPO'd in July 2024 and wanted to share some DD on this name since it barely gets mentioned anywhere. Its based out of North Houston in an area called the Woodlands, and seems to serve that geographic region deeply. They are like an infrastructure for independent insruance agents and provide access to services downstream (carrier access/tech/marketing etc.). An agent would plug into their infrastructure and sell personal and commercial lines. Their primary revenue is driven by commission and fees on the policies written through their network. They have 2 main segments 1. Retail branches - this is their core business 2. Managing General Agent (MGA) - this is an investment they are making to scale up I think its interesting right now because they KEEP outperforming. Their Q4 results were unreal: \- Rev: $68.8M (up 33.3% YoY - beating out target of 60.8) \- EPS: $0.30 vs $0.16-0.18 consensus (nearly a double beat) \- Organic rev growth reaccelrated to 11.7%, up over 1.5% from the previous quarter \- Adjusted EBITDA: $21.7M, up \~57% YoY \- Net Income: $14.4M FY2026 guidance of $285M-$300M revenue against $247M in FY2025 - consensus was only $241M. The board also authorized a $50M share repurchase program which is insane for a $300M market cap company. Currently, the stock is varies between $18-20, but hit highs of $36.85 in the 52WR, so we are near lows. At $18-20 with 33% rev growth + organic growth reaccelerating, EBTIDA margins expanding, a buyback in place, and most targets above the current price make it feel like this market pricing is ignoring their execution. Their Q1 earnings call will be May 19 so will be interesting to hear how they develop.