DGP

freistil90

Again - what distribution are you sampling into, a conditional or unconditional one? Sampling distributions are always data-dependent. There is no such a thing as an unconditional sampling distribution. Now the way to get around this problem is in the easiest case to have the iid sampling property, which gives you your market distribution by glivenko-cantelli. That this isn’t the case is something we all know - but even further away from this, you’d still need to assume at least some ergodicity, which you also don’t have - so you have simply no chance of getting the full unconditional (!) market distribution. The best chance that you have is to estimate/learn/however you want to call it the conditional distribution, so conditional on the large set of current market environments - and from there basically the only good chance you have is the bayes theorem. And we’re leaving out the fact here that in finance you can’t easily repeat your sampling process and need to fall back to bootstrapping at best. Go ahead, use a block-bootstrapper from a single path and try to back out a unconditional statistic of your choice via bayes from bootstrapped statistics. I work with that, unless you’re not really sure about some stylistic properties of your DGP, it’s a nightmare to get. The information that you’re missing is a) how likely is the current event and how would the distribution look like if the conditions were different. That’s why TA is so bogus, you’re essentially saying “this chart pattern is a clear indication that you now have a 80% chance to have found a market bottom, it’s best to buy now!” which is almost always an unconditional pattern that we just saw you have no chance to get to. At all. You need to assume things like a fix pattern or ergodicity (history repeats or rhymes and so on) and even then you’re still not measuring how far away you are from an actual sharp distribution estimate. You will not be able to measure that this pattern is so and so likely in markets because you’re essentially missing 100% of the necessary information. You can see all possible patterns in a simple Brownian motion too - and you could essentially not tell the difference of those patterns working any better there than in real markets in finite time. In infinite time, sure - but otherwise there is always a path where all that mambojambo “seems to work”, even if it’s a mathematically perfect random move. And you couldn’t tell. The problem is that all that nonsense is NOT falsifiable, pretty much everything is always set and measures post-event, not ante-event. At least there’s barely any good study on it that WOULD BE falsifiable in some sense because why risk your own reputation on this. Collect 100 TAs and let them commit while it forms their guess on whether or not they are currently seeing a pattern forming and should therefore buy or sell. Any comment post-event is discarded. Then see how conclusive that is.

parkranger2000

Global debt is 350% of global DGP. all the money in the world cannot repay all the debt in the world. Of course the system is broken

roxmj8

Well that’s because you sound pretty delusional to us. And yes I’m very religious, you caught me... Not exactly sure why being religious would be bad anyway. Whatever, I clearly am not going to be able to change your mind. Thank you for the history lesson on gold as a currency, which isn’t you said originally. Diction is important. I ran the numbers for you. Inflation of doge will still be 1% in the year 2095, and higher than 2% up till 2045. Good luck with that. When Bitcoin was 100$, it’s diluted market cap was 2.2 billion dollars. To get to where it is now, it 600x. And you’re right, no one in normal circles expected it to do that. But you keep looking at it from that perspective. It isn’t about 10x, 100x, 200x. It’s about the total value of the coin. Dogecoin already 200x’ed, it does not have another 200x in it from here. And if you think a meme coin is going to be worth 65% of the USA DGP, you cannot be helped. Additionally, the top 100 wallets own 40% of dogecoins total. Any one of them could crash the entire price of the coin, and one of them likely will, many times. They will keep bleeding money anytime the value shoots up to much, and they will do this indefinitely, preventing it ever from reaching 100$. I truly hope I’m wrong from your sake, and it becomes the single currency for the entire world, dwarfing the entire GPD United States and other superpowers. Best of luck!