Reddit Posts
Mentions
Those are good points with the CCP, I forgot about that. Whats odd is the CCP has an agency to also support the stock market, China really is opaque as it gets. BOJ will never be able to run that balance sheet off not even in 100 years. And yeah I expected the Dollar to strengthen and the Yuan to weaken with the tariff announcements but we got the opposite, granted traders front ran that. PBoC has been setting their mid-point on the USD/CNH lower than expected lately.
CNH January calls for $20 have 30k open interest. Loading up at the bell 🔔
Loading up on CNH December calla
Likely, I'm staying away though. CAT and CNH didn't do well.
I'm facing the same choice. My plan is to invest in some of the non "real" options until I have 25k then liquidate and buy the real thing (1211). I'm torn between 002594 or BYDDY tho. The convenience of BYDDY probably takes the cake for me. 002594 requires me buying HKD, converting to CNH, then buying on Shenzhen Exchange. But, it is a layer of less regulatory risk.
From large western companies it’s Iveco and CNH industeial (through FPT industrials), CHN, Kalmar, VDL, plus smaller companies like eVersum. They have a lot of Chinese and Korean bus and heavy duty vehicles manufacturer clients: King Long, XCMG, Pliny motors and many others.
How do you guys feel about AGCO CNH and DE 
Any wrinkled brains out there looking at CNH CNY divergence?
$TWI, $WNC, $MTW, $OSK, $CNH, $HTLD. Miller is a good call. I might look into buying $MLR over $HTLD. I wish there was an ETF. I might just split up x amt of dollars and buy a small position in 3-4 of the stocks above.
Thanks for the tip If I'm doing the math right, 1 USD is worth 7 CNH (China Yuan), so their gold price is about the same as ours, if not just slightly lower. (¥24,306) All the other countries' charts are pumped.
In recent years, the United States has seen many large factories close, particularly in the manufacturing and food sectors. Reasons for the closures include automation, declining demand, rising costs, and relocation of production to other countries. Below is a list of 10 of the most notable factories and businesses that have closed in recent years, with information on the year of closure and whether the factories were relocated. 10 Most Notable U.S. Plant Closures (2023–2025) Plant/Company City/State Year of Closure Description/Reason Tyson Foods (3 plants) Emporia, KS, Philadelphia 2024 Demand decline, optimization, cost increases Merck (Cherokee Plant) Riverside, PA 2026 Multi-stage closure, restructuring Microchip Technology Tempe, AZ 2025 Order decline, optimization Grede LLC Brewton, AL 2025 Relocation, demand decline Post Consumer Brands (2 plants) Sparks, NV; Cobourg, Canada 2025 Network optimization, lower demand for cereals Butterball Arkansas 2024 Sales decline, optimization John Deere (tractor plant) Iowa 2024 Decreased demand for agricultural equipment CNH Industrial (Case New Holland) Fargo, North Dakota 2024 Decreased demand, job losses Cargill (staff reduction, closures) Several states 2024 Global optimization, profit decline Stellantis (Warren Truck Plant) Detroit, Michigan 2024 End of model release, optimization Which production was transferred to other countries Many food processing and machinery plants (e.g., some Tyson, Cargill, John Deere) were either closed or moved part of their operations to lower-cost countries, including Mexico and Asia. Electronics and component manufacturing (e.g. Microchip Technology) is also partially moving to Asia to reduce costs. Automotive and mechanical engineering companies (e.g. Stellantis, John Deere, CNH Industrial) continue to move some assembly operations to Mexico and China, where labor and logistics costs are lower. Brief analysis From 1995 to 2022, about 74,000 manufacturing plants closed in the United States, of which about 1,346 were large (with more than 500 employees). The main reasons for the closures are automation, reduced demand, rising costs, global competition, and the relocation of production to countries with cheaper labor. In recent years, closures have been particularly noticeable in the food industry, automobile manufacturing, electronics, and heavy engineering. Thus, the United States continues to lose large plants, and some production is being moved abroad, which affects the employment structure and the economy of the regions.
CNY and CNH could kind of be an example of this I guess?
Gold is a massive bubble. If the US collapses, no one is going to want your gold. They are going to want food, clean drinking water, etc. Basically, anything with actual direct survival utility. If you truly fear a collapse, you should be preparing for self-sufficiency. > Today, Trump rejected the ruling from the superior court to bring back a US citizen and discussed to send more US citizens to El Salvador. The individual was not a US Citizen. He entered the country illegally, was denied aslyum, but a judge provided him legal protection from deportation. This is very concerning for sure, but the US has been detaining suspected terrorists without due process for decades. >This injects additional uncertainties into the stock market, the bond market, and the trust in USD. EUR, JPY, CNH and their related stocks may not be safe in the near term either, since he can easily slap a 25% tariff on Japan or Europe. I am planning to shift a bit more position to gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and hold my FXI positions for now and wait to see this developing. 75-80% of Palladium demand and 35-40% of platinum demand is used for catalytic converts for cars. With the massive tariffs on automobiles and automobile parts, and the push to EVs, do you really think Palladium/Platinum will go up in value?
This is so misleading please stop spewing incorrect and inaccurate information. Absolutely — yuan devaluation is one of the most underrated stealth weapons in global economics, ⸻ Yuan Devaluation: The Silent Tax When China devalues the yuan (CNY) against the U.S. dollar or other major currencies, it’s essentially doing this: • Making its exports cheaper to the world (stimulates factory orders), • Making imports more expensive for its domestic market (hurts Chinese consumer purchasing power), • Undermining competitors by dragging down global pricing power. But here’s the kicker: this devaluation is “exporting deflation” to the rest of the world — especially emerging markets and advanced economies trying to maintain domestic industry. ⸻ Who Gets Hurt? 1. U.S. & European Manufacturers • Local factories can’t compete with artificially cheap Chinese goods. • Leads to more outsourcing unless governments add protectionist barriers. 2. Developing Nations (Vietnam, Mexico, India, etc.) • These countries just started building manufacturing capacity to absorb supply chain exits from China. • Yuan devaluation undercuts their margins, slowing diversification away from China. 3. Commodity Exporters (Brazil, Australia, South Africa) • When yuan weakens, China buys fewer commodities or negotiates harder on pricing. • Copper, iron, soybeans, oil — all take a hit. 4. Global Investors Holding Yuan Assets • Devaluation = currency losses. • If you’re holding Chinese bonds, stocks, or real estate, you’re bleeding on the FX side. ⸻ Who Benefits? 1. Export-Centric Chinese Firms • They gain global market share on price alone. • This prolongs the life of otherwise inefficient factories. 2. Chinese Government • Keeps employment steady in politically sensitive regions. • Buys time to manage debt crises in real estate and infrastructure sectors. 3. U.S. Consumers in the Short Term • Ironically, U.S. retailers might get cheaper goods — but this delays re-shoring and reinforces dependency. ⸻ Weaponizing the Yuan: Why It’s Strategic China doesn’t let the yuan float freely — it uses the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to maintain a currency band. This allows them to: • Ease pressure when global demand weakens (e.g., post-COVID or during trade war), • Offset tariffs by lowering costs artificially, • Retaliate against sanctions or trade restrictions without firing a shot. So instead of tariffs or embargoes, devaluation becomes a tool of economic warfare. Quiet. Powerful. Global. ⸻ Bond Market Impact: Why Things Feel Broken Now tie this back to U.S. bonds trading “like shitcoins” — and you’re onto something bigger. Here’s the loop: • Yuan devalues → global deflation → central banks hold or cut rates → U.S. can’t raise rates too high without killing exports or emerging markets. • Meanwhile, U.S. fiscal deficits explode, foreign buyers reduce Treasury demand, and inflation uncertainty persists. • Bond investors get spooked by rising supply and falling demand — so yields spike, prices drop, volatility rises. That’s why we’re in a weird limbo where: • Inflation isn’t dead, • Rates can’t go much higher, • But the cost of capital is rising everywhere — and China’s FX moves are a big part of that trap. ⸻ You Want to Track It? Here’s What to Watch: 1. USD/CNY Cross Rate If it breaks above 7.30–7.40, China is signaling economic desperation. 2. PBOC Daily Fix vs Offshore Yuan (CNH) The further apart these are, the more China is using stealth intervention. 3. Export/Import Data & FX Reserves When reserves fall while exports are up, China is selling dollars to defend the yuan — and might be near a breaking point
yuan devaluation is one of the most underrated stealth weapons in global economics, a “tax on every economy,” The Silent Tax When China devalues the yuan (CNY) against the U.S. dollar or other major currencies, it’s essentially doing this: • Making its exports cheaper to the world (stimulates factory orders), • Making imports more expensive for its domestic market (hurts Chinese consumer purchasing power), • Undermining competitors by dragging down global pricing power. But here’s the kicker: this devaluation is “exporting deflation” to the rest of the world — especially emerging markets and advanced economies trying to maintain domestic industry. ⸻ Who takes the hit to the chin? 1. U.S. & European Manufacturers • Local factories can’t compete with artificially cheap Chinese goods. • Leads to more outsourcing unless governments add protectionist barriers. 2. Developing Nations (Vietnam, Mexico, India, etc.) • These countries just started building manufacturing capacity to absorb supply chain exits from China. • Yuan devaluation undercuts their margins, slowing diversification away from China. 3. Commodity Exporters (Brazil, Australia, South Africa) • When yuan weakens, China buys fewer commodities or negotiates harder on pricing. • Copper, iron, soybeans, oil — all take a hit. 4. Global Investors Holding Yuan Assets • Devaluation = currency losses. • If you’re holding Chinese bonds, stocks, or real estate, you’re bleeding on the FX side. 1. Export-Centric Chinese Firms • They gain global market share on price alone. • This prolongs the life of otherwise inefficient factories. 2. Chinese Government • Keeps employment steady in politically sensitive regions. • Buys time to manage debt crises in real estate and infrastructure sectors. 3. U.S. Consumers in the Short Term • Ironically, U.S. retailers might get cheaper goods — but this delays re-shoring and reinforces dependency. China’s secret weapon the yuan- China doesn’t let the yuan float freely — it uses the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to maintain a currency band. This allows them to: • Ease pressure when global demand weakens (e.g., post-COVID or during trade war), • Offset tariffs by lowering costs artificially, • Retaliate against sanctions or trade restrictions without firing a shot. So instead of tariffs or embargoes, devaluation becomes a tool of economic warfare. Quiet. Powerful. Global. ⸻ Why things are broken - Now tie this back to U.S. bonds trading “like shitcoins” — and you’re onto something bigger. Here’s the loop: • Yuan devalues → global deflation → central banks hold or cut rates → U.S. can’t raise rates too high without killing exports or emerging markets. • Meanwhile, U.S. fiscal deficits explode, foreign buyers reduce Treasury demand, and inflation uncertainty persists. • Bond investors get spooked by rising supply and falling demand — so yields spike, prices drop, volatility rises. That’s why we’re in a weird limbo where: • Inflation isn’t dead, • Rates can’t go much higher, • But the cost of capital is rising everywhere — and China’s FX moves are a big part of that trap. ⸻ Instead of falling into the echo chambers Here’s What to Watch: 1. USD/CNY Cross Rate If it breaks above 7.30–7.40, China is signaling economic desperation. 2. PBOC Daily Fix vs Offshore Yuan (CNH) The further apart these are, the more China is using stealth intervention. 3. Export/Import Data & FX Reserves When reserves fall while exports are up, China is selling dollars to defend the yuan — and might be near a breaking point
He was stupid to start this battle. It will only accelerate China’s perfection of producing reliable farm equipment. John Deere, CNH and Caterpillar will lose access to the Chinese agriculture market. Thus, less manufacturing in US, not more. Trump is doubling down to try to prove Tom Friedman wrong. Problem is that I don’t know when Friedman has been more right.
You have a gambling problem. Just trade Forex I have been shorting the CNH currency and making money. Options are only good if you have close info.
Agriculture can also be a recessionary trade. CNH was trading at such a discount to Deere & Co that I bought $CNH over more $DE.
Nice trade on CNH btw. [I was interested in this company 7 months ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1eev8ni/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_jul_29_2024/lfjy5rx/) at $10 but never pulled the trigger.
$CNH just hit a new 52 week high. That is my 2nd stock after $VZ hitting a new 52 week high today. Diversification works. Sure there are times 1 sector like tech is in a bubble and vastly outperforms the market. But why put your entire financial future in 1 basket???
you dont do it with CNY, you do it with offshore CNH. the fact you dont know this, is why you shouldn't be trading fx.
These do not seem to be ADRs or GDRs. Those would not be priced in Yuan (CNY/CNH). The capacity of the Chinese government to seize these assets is just like the capacity of EU/US to seize the Russian ones. They are held in a CSD in China, ultimately (as are US securities in US CSDs etc.). https://preview.redd.it/c0wur3i2ppfe1.png?width=374&format=png&auto=webp&s=59563a7e868b2e011ca77f83f929f50aa8bff921 On a similar note - I am quite concerned about my US securities held at this Danish (Saxo) broker. In case Trump really goes after Greenland (a Danish territory) and ends up sanctioning Denmark, my US stocks could end up stolen, too. There are no saints.
CNH looks like it wants to fuck around and find out
3M bought during dip. CNH is a good agricultural play.
Yeah, besides $DE most agr stocks have been pretty beat up. I own $MOS which reported an earning miss this morning $0.38 vs exp $0.58 and Rev $2.81B vs exp $3.28B. The stocks is down -21% YTD. I also own $NTR and $CNH. As long as grain prices remain underpressure, many agriculture stocks will not do well. However on a short term 3 mo chart $NTR and $MOS appear to have found short term support. $ADM had another accounting error and delayed their earnings call. They had a similar issue a year ago so I'm hesitant about buying that stock right now. But, if you live in the midwest everyone has heard of $ADM because they are the largest grain dealer in the country. Deere & Co reports 11/21 and that would be the agriculture stock to BTD on an earnings miss, IMHO. Tyson Foods $TSN reported an earnings beat this morning of $0.92 vs $0.69 exp and is up 6% in premarket this morning. I
[https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/margin-rates.php](https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/margin-rates.php) It now says 5.7% though. There are extra fees associated with CNH shorts. And that the central bank restricts borrowing activity via supply and fees. Otherwise the currency won't stay at such a low volatility level. And yes short term rates is around 1.5% now ... but that's like onshore, offshore is controlled. A handicapped currency.
There is no other currency like the JPY. If you short CNH, you are paying at least 6% margin rate. The government had plenty of tools to maintain that rate to keep shorters out of yuan. So no carry trade.
NWL, CNH and somehow NOK are long-term share plays. I don't make the rules, I just play by them and occasionally trade against them.
John Deere layoffs in 2 locations now stands at 900. (Iowa and Illinois). Deere to relocate some manufacturing to Mexico. Bridgestone tires laying off 135. (Iowa). CaseNew Holland (CNH) shuts down Racine, Wisconsin plant. Moves to Mexico citing unfriendly Labor and tax structure under "current administration".
I opened in a new position in $DHT (oil tankers) and bought more shares of $HAL and $MOS. These positions won't age well if commodities keep selling off due to recession fears. However, escalating war tensions and a weaker USD may give them support. esp crude oil. I also added small cap manufactures $WNC (trailers) and $CNH ( farm equipment) today. Again lower grain prices aren't good for farm equipment and trucking is in a recession. But these are 2 of the better performing small cap companies IMHO. I am looking 1-2 year out for these positions. My dividend stocks have been on fire. $T, $VZ, $BMY, and $BTI and utilities $LNT. I have taken a speculative position in $WBA to see if the healthcare retailer bleeding cash might find support due to it's dividend and markets searching out defensive health care positions. I am ready to cut Walgreens w/i a week or 2 if the trade really goes against me. This volatility makes me wonder how people can have all their cash in individual stocks. My overall portfolio is roughly 25% gold, 50% cash yielding 5%, and 25% stocks. I am not including my boring 401K in a S&P 500 index fund.
$CNH has just went green for the day. This is despite a big earnings miss by $AGCO this morning that has that stock down 6%. The market is a little more optimistic about the New Holland & Case IH manufacturer than the Massey Ferguson manufacturer. The market is expecting an earnings decline by CNH Industrial, but I re-opened a position this morning. Agriculture is in a recession, but the stock is trading at pre-Covid levels. Plus they are trading at a much cheaper valuation than Deere & Co.
[Interesting bull case thread for CNH](https://x.com/ArmsGarrett/status/1817984343106797973), which to my understanding is a lower quality version of $DE (at a fraction of the multiple). The multiple is abnormally low despite being in an underearnings period (compare this to the many megacap stocks that have an expensive multiple due to being in an underearnings periods). Potential opportunity for a multiple re-rate.
CNH (cocaine and hooker)