EMBC

LordWorl

I spent three months writing about EMBC. +84%. Both EMBC and CRVX are medtech

LordWorl

What bag? 🤣Bro, I have everything under control. The deadline is August 7th, but it could be earlier. In any case, I'm not in the red; I can wait six months or a year. If something is bothering you, you can ask. I know everything about EMBC, even what the cleaning lady eats for lunch 🤣.

LordWorl

Fair point, but the market is currently pricing EMBC as if the transformation completely fails. Meanwhile, Owen was not some massive multi-billion acquisition — roughly $100M upfront — and Embecta still expects around $100M in free cash flow even after the weak reset quarter. So you have a company with a global footprint, a $100M buyback authorization, GLP-1 / India / Canada opportunities, and Owen’s auto-injector platform trading at only around a ~$180M market cap. That’s why some investors believe the valuation looks excessively compressed relative to the long-term potential.

LordWorl

Currently, Embecta has approximately three real factors that could dramatically change its stock price even after the current pressure. ⸻ 📌 1. Actual share buyback Currently, this is perhaps the most powerful immediate catalyst (immediate factor). Because: * the market cap is already around $180 million, * and the authorized share buyback: $100 million. Even if the company starts: * not $100 million, * but at least $5-10 million, the market may perceive this as: "management believes the price is absurdly low." Especially after: * dividend cuts, * historic lows, * a wave of rating downgrades. ⸻ 📌 2. Insider share purchases If: * CEOs, * directors, * executives start buying shares with their own money, this could dramatically change sentiment. ⸻ 📌 3. Confirmation of GLP-1 supply volumes to India/Canada This could be: a turning point. Especially if: * the market sees that partnerships are not just a "future story," but: * actual deliveries, * actual launches, * actual repeat volumes (repeatable volumes). The CEO has already stated that: * about 40% of ~30 generic drug companies have selected EMBC as their supplier, * two companies have received approval in Canada, * launches are expected. ⸻ Therefore: If sentiment changes, the rebound could be: very sharp. Because: * short pressure is high, * valuation is significantly undervalued, * market capitalization is small, * free float is relatively limited

FitGene1169

Buy EMBC

FitGene1169

EMBC

jamesdean6449

Does anyone have an opinion on Embecta Corp (EMBC)? I saw where they were short on earnings, but still showed they were profitable.

Zealousideal-Sort127

I like EMBC. Its a super beaten up spinoff with very stable earnings. Currently it trades at \~3.5x earnings which is insanely cheap. The play is highly levered as well \[500m market cap, 1200m of net debt\] with 315m of operating income \[this is INSANE for a 500m market cap\]. The company makes pen needles, primarily for diabetics. Most folks think that the company will become irrelevant due to GLP-1s but this has not affected their sales thusfar --- and its so cheap that even if it does, you will most likely still do great. Full disclosure - I have a significant position for my portfolio size.

Zealousideal-Sort127

Not exactly a penny stock - but its close. EMBC - 800m market cap, 1200m net debt. Earnings of \~300m per year - super stable. They make syringes for diabetics -- its half price \[if you include the debt. But the upside because of the debt is enormous. Its \~$12.50 per share. At $25 per share its still trading at less than 10x earnings \[including debt\]. Full disclosure - I have a massive position.

Zealousideal-Sort127

EMBC Embecta is the biggest manufacturer of syringes for diabetics. GLP-1s didnt seem to hurt their business - actually they are partnering with GLP-1 providers to be used as the pen needle for delivery. Company is so cheap - LTM P/E = 7.5, NTM estimated to be an astonishing 4. Company is highly leveraged --- so any upside could be massively magnified. Basically in terms of buying a house the analogy would be: Total price is 1.9m bucks. You put up 700k up front. Bank \[leverage\] is 1.2m. Before interest rent is 315k per year - NOT an exaggeration. After interest rent is 270K per year. Cheapest thing I have ever seen. Revenues / earnings are super stable. I have 40% of my portfolio here.

riskoffasap

Krampus slump is still on the table so I'm not pushing back in too fast after hitting most of my stop losses on Wednesday last week. I bought YMM on Friday. High on my list for next week is EMBC, COCO, and NVDA looks like it may trigger a pullback buy early next week as well.

senecadocet1123

Embecta (EMBC) holds a monopoly in insulin needles. Worth checking out

Zealousideal-Sort127

I saw a bit of chatter about it. Its hard to factor it I suppose; just gotta watch the data roll in. I just saw that GIS \[General Mills\] had some article published about them having some amount of mercury in their food. This may have been the same story as the 'mercury in cheerios'. Its hard to know when these things will pop up --- and how significant they are. In my opinion the valuation is so far off the mark for KLG that I ignore this factor. I have a significant investment in another company however \[EMBC\]. They make needles for diabetics. In my opinion they are extremely cheap for the quality of their earnings. This investment is down \~30%. I cannot explain why, the revenue is not dropping. Maybe the Ozempic story is weighing on them. Every investment story has a bit of hair on it. Just look at Meta when it dropped to \~$90, the story was that they were lighting the cash on fire. Look at Exxon when oil since oil went negative. I think for 'Macro' stuff which involves prediction, maybe the approach is to size the trade for the risk, but not necessarily factor in the evaluation. Imo the risk here is not necessarily the boycott talk, but that ALL corporations now face catastrophic risk through 1 piece of viral bad press e.g. Budweiser. I was reading one of the boycott forums re: KLG: Top points included: > the prices are outrageous. > it contains 'chemicals'. > i stopped eating this kind of stuff x \[where x>20\] years ago. The boycott crowd looks like folks that are not necessarily the clientelle for the product already. They seem to come from the 'I inherited alot of money and am easily offended' crowd. They have the privelidge of being able to be picky about the calories that they eat. They made their decision out of the product long before the 'let them eat flakes' story.

Zealousideal-Sort127

100: 25 - the little book that still beats the market by greenblatt. 25 - you can be a stock market genius by greenblatt. 10 - the warren buffett portfolio by hagstrom. ------ Put the rest in short term bonds until you find something really good to buy. ------ For me - really good is a 15% yield or so, and you gotta convince yourself that whatever you buy is actually getting you this yield. The best thing you can do most of the time is to sit on your ass. Sit and sit until you find something really good and cheap, then back up the truck. Example: Buffett bought AAPL in 2016, he bought it for around $28. Before he bought it, that year, it earned $9. Its easy to look back and see that that happened. Why the hell would you settle at less, just sit and wait for a really good opportunity. Im a big fan of KLG and EMBC. I loaded up the truck on both.

waltwhitman83

doesn't match the list here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies or the list from finviz or the list from tradingview missing EMBC couple of weird things going on with at least these between the lists ANTM ELV EMBC IPGP KDP ON UA UAA i'm sure it's good enough though, thanks