Shift Technologies Inc.
SFT - Shift Technologies (Nasdaq) is picking up steam 👀 Up 8% Wednesday. Up 25% Thursday. 75m mkt cap, 1.1 billion 2022e rev, down 90% from 12 mo ago. S I ~30% of float ⛽ Shares available to short = 0 ⛽ Days to cover ~7.5 ⛽ Cost to borrow 10%+ ⛽ LFG 🚀🚀🚀 🌌
Keep an eye on ticker SFT (Shift Technologies), traded on the Nasdaq 👀 Market cap of 60m, 2021e revenues of 1.1 billion. 3rd party marketplace launched 2 days ago with 2,100 vehicles from 1 market 😯 Shorts placed a risky bet, now they stand to lose big.
Crime...? The company has been cash flow negative & losing 50-100 Mil a quarter since Post Spac completion.. The company has 2-3 quarters left of cash (A literal law states companies have to disclose bankruptcy as a risk if they don't have 4 quarters left of cash) The company has to A) Pile on debt or B) use their ATM Facility ($150 million authorized) in the form of equity dilution which is really bad at these prices since in order to hit 150 million today they need to more then 2x the share count... SFT has about 300 Mil in Current Assets, add 10-20 million for real estate & Other assets, that's 320 Mil. SFT also has Current liabilities of $155 Million, & Long term debt of [$144] (+$20 Mil from Softbank this month for the Fair acquisition) $166 Million So their Assets essentially equal Liabilities AND they're losing $50-$100 Mil a quarter.. Naw, not crime, smart. But now it's a little greedy to continue shorting since the risk reward profile is wayyy more healthy. A) Company is posting 100% Rev growth YoY B) Used car prices continue to climb, their inventory gains more value, although it does increase their costs for future inventory C) They just completed the Fair acquisition which gives them access to a marketplace to sell **Other people's/dealers** vehicles and greatly reduce costs. Just looking at hindsight, shorting now is much more risky then it was from 10s to 0.X's, and that's seen in: A) Higher volume traded B) Shares to borrow on a downtrend for a year to consistent Zero's C) CTB Exploding
Using parts of my comment from another thread: So far, the SI% of float has gone up, so that should be an indicator that it's been shorted heavier. And the cost to borrow has 5x'd from last Thursday to almost 54% (using fintel as the source for both). Fintel also is reporting 0 shares available at the moment via their main brokerage that provides that dara. Price of SFT is down, so i believe as a buyer that's preferable. Cost to borrow is up, so I think as a short seller that's worse. I dunno, I think the squeeze potential for Shift has only gotten higher 🤷 The price is +0.59% on the 5D chart, so basically flat, and yet the cost to borrow has gone from 10% to over 50% and the Short interest has risen. I'd take a flat price, with increased cost to borrow, fintel reporting 0 share available, and an overall increased SI% of float any week. That's a lot of pressure for shorts to apply only for the stock to be flat on the 5D, and now they face 53.7% cost to borrow? I'm bullish on that 👍
Didn't ask you to trust me, just be realistic about your potential gains and set exit points that aren't based on emotions. And poor is relative. Pay my bills, have stellar credit, not much disposable (AKA gambling on options) money. Haha and compared to some "chart analysis" I've seen here I can't be very far off most people's abilities. "REV going to moon today!" Down 18% "DTC primed and ready to go today!" Down 6% "SFT squeeze play" down 10% "WEBR...." 30% down from peak 3 days ago Etc. Stop trying to time the top, and stop wishing that hedge funds fold. They have more money than you. That's all I'm trying to get people to believe and trust in. Ride it up, sell when profits make sense to you. If you didn't set an exit point on either side of profit or loss, set one next time.
with all due respect dude, I am not comparing SFT to AMZN of today rather AMZN of 1994 (time when they had started just selling books and only books, you might have forgotten the starting roots of AMZN). Thanks for the feedback anyways dude, only time can tell where this headed.
Amazon? Really? You mean the early stages of any ecommerce company every. Do not try to compare this to Amazon, its rediculous. Also you can’t possibly know their web traffic & interactions so you don’t know they’re going up every day or at all. I’m not saying SFT is a bad bet, just that this is a trash post.
I agree. Rather mid term than long term. SFT is presenting today at Wells Fargo Digital conference. Market are discounting it because of the cash balance that the have, this is rather upsurd becaused it do not operate on a broken business model. This fact will soon be realized and it will be valued fairly at 450mn market cap, implying approx. USD 5
I'm holding my SFT at least until their next earnings. This company invested alot in inventory, new marketplace, one stop shop for financing, insurance, repair and expanding. With the new auto availability problems, chip shortage, inflation, they have to come back with some numbers that separate them from the failed business plan of Vroom and Carvana.
AMC never fails to surprise haha... what a whacky ticker 😂 you can never count AMC out It looks like SFT was shorted pretty heavily this morning with the fintel data going from 150K shares available to short down to 0. Cost to borrow staying at 26.74% (last updated 17 mins ago). It had a pretty impressive rely to finish less than 2 cents below Friday's after hours price of 0.89 and close of .91. It looks to me like it's built up some solid support while the SI and the cost to borrow remains high. BOXD was surprising, especially when most tickers fell back today. Lots of various 8% pullbacks and then boxd was well positive. Wild
As somebody who has worked in auto finance for over a decade, I don't think this is the move. Cash flow is *everything* in the car selling business; you don't cash flow, you start robbing Peter to pay Paul; you start selling vehicles before you take ownership of the title; you get caught out of trust; you get the pants sued off you; you get your floor plan pulled; you go belly up. We're at the end of the business cycle; while used doesn't take quite the beating new sales do, the used car market still feels the pinch. Lenders tighten up their credit; advances 20-30% over retail are no longer acceptable and many customers simply won't be able to come up with the cash to clear out all their negative equity on the trade. We've seen elevated vehicle values for two years now, particularly used vehicle values; with values coming down (and they will continue to do so), we have a market loaded with over-loaned customers, which will take at least a few years to work itself out to get things back to "normal." If SFT can weather the storm until they cash flow (and that is a very big IF), they're gonna have to climb out from the basement just like everybody else in the car business. In my opinion, best case scenario for this stock is be prepared to bag hold for 5+ years. I am personally avoiding this and anything else tangentially related to the auto market for the foreseeable future.
I found the problem: In addition only stocks/cryptos that are listed on Infinite Marketcap will be shown. we can ask them to add for full transparency: email: "can you add $SFT Shift Technologies as it is the mostly mentioned stock on r/shortsqueeze lately" to: email@example.com
It's a value play with growing short metrics you see referenced here. Same with Kirk and Rdhl not seeing insane numbers but they are well undervalue and are legit plays. I also like SFT & AMC And as always the one that matters GME
SFT (Shift Technologies) its just not for squeeze. It is a genuine business run by great management. Good things take time. Used car is always a local business and they have got it right. Just wait and see when Marketplace officially comes in action, its a easy half a billion company …..
Haha that’s fair, I have a fairly profitable option strategy so far but I always hold shares too. Those december calls have little risk though, could probably sell for the same price in August. Unless they dilute it would be pretty hard to believe SFT stays under a dollar until then. Delta is pretty decent.
Interesting... I was going to say maybe there is a market cap limit of like 100M, but then a ctrl+f for Shift finds ShiftPixy (ticker PIXY), which has a market cap of 10M. So a market cap limit can't be it. Ya, pretty strange. On there you see pretty much all of the stocks discussed. Like at a first glance everything looks quite reasonable, and then SFT is just randomly missing. I don't think it's on purpose, but clearly something is working properly on that site
MMs are not going to let this get out of the gate unless PM volume is stratospheric...too many other plays out there as "we are not going into recession." (Yeah, right.) I'm off like a prom dress with SFT if volume meets or exceeds last weeks spike day (Thursday I think - check the charts).
GME and BBBY are my first loves; that aside i'm going for WEBR, REV, SDC, VRM (idk why), SFT, and RIOT. I actually bought some CRSR, solid value play. I actually also went back in time and got some TLRY that seems to be on a start of a run.
Also, think of the actual dollars moving around… notional value. 75m shares of a less than $1 stock is $75m, which a short can push around very easily. 610m shares of an $8 stock is almost $5b… REV’s CTB is also 1,000%, and SFT’s is 11%. Whoever is short REV is losing a lot of money every day through fees and rapidly increasing share price, and is MUCH more uncomfortable than whoever is short SFT, BOXD, or any of the other names are (except RDBX).
SFT doesn’t have the volume, and the first strike at $2.50 is almost 200% away from going ITM, and then even when it does there are only 480k shares that would need to be hedged on a 50m share float. No gamma risk there, which is usually what ends up being the first ingredient for a short squeeze.
BOXD with a conservative PT of $8 EOW. SFT if it gets over $1 and volume is 3X normal/time of avg. vol....and of course... MULN if it dips to $1.20 and they have another talking head plug its battery on CNBC again (as they did Wednesday). Seems to me the timing was odd, fuel prices are demand-killed and dropping, EV plays are sliding, and CNBC is so filthy the shameless plug means some turkey there has a position in it and needs a run to pay his wife's girlfriend's VISA bills...so...yes, I use that shimmery to deduce a move is coming.