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We actually spent more time below the long term channel in [2023](https://www.tradingview.com/x/6qZcdNOr/). And this includes DXY changes. But normies who can't open a chart app had no idea with [this press](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kKUye23KBQ). People also forget most investors have significant bond holdings. US bonds underperformed by 9% last term and recovered 4% of that. The normie 60/40 investor lost money for 4 years in [real terms](https://www.tradingview.com/x/OtNIiDCc/). Given massive TIC [inflows](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/net-long-term-tic-flows), [record](https://www.reuters.com/business/foreign-holdings-us-treasuries-hit-all-time-high-november-data-shows-2026-01-15/) foreign [treasury holdings](https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html), including [Europe](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sell-america-buyers-europe-piled-into-treasuries-2025-data-shows-2026-01-22/), and [positive basis swaps](https://x.com/josephwang/status/2016626417510076764), this FX move was basic rate outperformance not the sexy "cApiTal fLiGHt" narrative which was actually a massive inflow. This manic obsession with dxy is strange. CPI already reflects currency effects. 2.4% CPI -10% DXY +4% bond is materially better for the non-Swiss Chalet owning median American than the 9% CPI +10% DXY -9% bond situation we had these two years. Investors should have their savings in bonds not dollars. As an investor you *want* rates↓, bonds↑, fx↓ rather than the reverse.
It's so fatiguing. You can see exactly when [China](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gold-reserves), [Russia](https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves), and [Europe](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gold-reserves) slammed the gold bid, exactly when Biden broke the seal on foreign reserve seizures of USD in 2023. Barely any further buying in 2025. In fact, massive TIC [inflows](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/net-long-term-tic-flows) in 2025 and [record](https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html) foreign treasury [holdings](https://www.reuters.com/business/foreign-holdings-us-treasuries-hit-all-time-high-november-data-shows-2026-01-15/) occurred, particularly from [Europe](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sell-america-buyers-europe-piled-into-treasuries-2025-data-shows-2026-01-22/).
TIC data missed a trillion dollars of treasuries purchased in the Cayman Islands so I don’t know if it’s to be trusted
>Gold is pumping because central banks around the world are dumping their USD holdings and buying gold at record pace. This has been a trend for the past few years No it hasn't. You can literally see exactly when [China](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gold-reserves), [Russia](https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves), and [Europe](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gold-reserves) slammed the gold bid, exactly when Biden broke the seal on foreign reserve seizures of USD. Barely any further buying in 2025. In fact, massive TIC [inflows](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/net-long-term-tic-flows) and [record](https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html) foreign treasury holdings occurred, particularly from [Europe](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sell-america-buyers-europe-piled-into-treasuries-2025-data-shows-2026-01-22/). You can either make up narratives or look at actual data.
You’re not wrong that you don’t need some giant dump for yields to move. The marginal buyer sets the price, and yeah even a slowdown matters when the U.S. is issuing/refinancing this much. My point is just: “Europe is dumping” is a specific claim and it needs actual proof, not vibes and bot spam. The latest TIC snapshot doesn’t show a broad exit, and Reuters/Citi had Europe as a big net buyer April–Nov. That's reality. Theres no "cause" and what does that even mean? I’m separating the real risk from the headline narrative we keep seeing spammed around here because an echo chamber does none of us any good.
Yeah because TIC is lagged. November is just the latest verified data. But if “Europe is dumping” was real in size, you’d see it in the hard data flows(/auctions/holdings) instead of just media headlines and comments. And the April–Nov Reuters/Citi flow data still showed Europe as a major net buyer.
You're right it doesn't tell the full story but: The claim I see being spammed is Europe is dumping Treasuries. If that were happening in a meaningful way you’d expect foreign holdings to be clearly falling or the flow data to show sustained net selling. TIC doesn’t show a broad exit and Reuters/Citi flow data actually had Europe as a major net buyer in 2025.
Haha, you're following me pretty closely, aren't you! That's great that XBI has done so well for you! What is that $2,392 as a percentage of the purchase price? I'm still in **XBI**, and **XPH**. **DXJ** is in my "3-ETF Portfolio" on TIC, is that where you saw it? I'm not in it with real money, only because I was in XBI, XPH, and **SLV** already when I started that journey, and I didn't want to use silver for that sub, because it's not like a normal ETF, a basket of companies. Have you read how I take profits? I roll them UP in the same expiration and reset to my preferred Delta. For the longest time that was 80-delta, but someone here talked me into 90-delta, so I did that for a while, but now I'm back to 80. I say that in case you saw me say 90 somewhere. Anyway, your 88Cs are at 91-delta according to ThinkorSwim. I'd be rolling those UP to the **102C** at 80-delta. Midpoint for the 88's is 41.52. Midpoint for the 102's is 31.40. Selling the one and buying the other would net you 10.12, or $1,012 per contract. And feel free to ask for more when you set up the rolling trade: sometimes they'll give you a nickel better, or at least a couple cents. Now you're still long an 80-delta LEAPS Call, but have a thousand bucks in your pocket to do something else with. This may be riskier than you're comfortable with, but I take that "house money" and buy 80-delta Calls **100-120DTE**. They cost less than LEAPS, so you get more leverage. And if you lose some of that money, so what? Or just put it toward more LEAPS Calls, in the same ticker or something else. All 3 of those do have good momentum still, don't they? You may have a website or something you like to use for charting, but I discovered [StockAnalysis.com](http://StockAnalysis.com) from someone here, and I love how quickly I can build an easy-to-read chart and then monkey with the timeframes. Here's these 3 on a 6-month view: [XBI, XPH, & DXJ](https://imgur.com/a/PnzB8tj) I'll look at a chart like that at least once a week, checking that the trends are still intact. These are fine, but if they start looking like they're flattening out I'll drill down to 3 months and then 1 month. My line in the sand is if the thing is worth today what it was 1 month ago (so 0% gain for the month), I get out of it. I've had to do that with one, and another one I got out after just 2 weeks of being flat. So tweak those ideas to your own risk-aversion, but have some criteria for getting out. Great to hear from you! again Let me know what you think of these ideas. Mike
TIC? Any companies that you follow in the space?
I think the TIC companies have yet to see the long term maintenance/testing contracts that will be required for these build outs. Probably a bit of a hidden opportunity rn
What do I actually recommend? Follow a research team called Citrini Research on substack, pay $800 for his subscription, and read their research on stocks and thematic investing. I am up 200% since buying their sub last year and most of the money I made is from ideas from their plays. If you can’t afford it then here is what I am holding in this order: Google Leaps (large portion of port) AMD stock (wish I owned leaps would’ve made like 100% more) Amazon is looking good right now. TIC - really good smaller company that could explode due to a bunch of stuff with Citrini But honestly in the past 2 years you could throw a dart at an AI datacenter company and make money. Now I am focused on the data center infra plays. The power guys. The cooling. There’s a lot of money pouring into DCs that aren’t just chips. Market is sleeping on some of those names while picking up on others.
KFS announced a new operator in residence: "I am pleased to welcome Colter Hanson as the newest member of our KSX platform," said J.T. Fitzgerald, Kingsway's President and CEO. "Colter has proven himself in high-performance environments and embodies the character, drive, and discipline we look for in our KSX operators. The Kingsway team is thrilled to have him on board." Prior to Kingsway, Mr. Hanson served as an Engagement Manager for McKinsey & Company where he focused on operational excellence and value creation for clients in the manufacturing and power generation verticals. He will conduct his search out of Minneapolis, MN, and intends to seek an acquisition related to Testing, Inspection, and Certification (TIC) with a target geography of the Midwest. Mr. Hanson is a graduate of the United States Naval Academy where he received his Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering. Mr. Hanson subsequently served in the United States Navy as a nuclear submarine officer. He spent the final two years of his military service at the Pentagon, supporting the United States Navy's Director of Operations and Plans. In 2020, Mr. Hanson transitioned from the military to earn his MBA at Harvard Business School.
Bought leap call on Nbis on the local top in february. Sold in July @ $16 for a 12% gain. Calls are now worth $80 😭😭😭😭. I am always right, fucking sell too early, and miss out on insane gains all so I can put the sale into some other shit I am too early on. Right now shit is EQT and TIC
If you are investing in actual data enter companies like Nbis or crwv you are already way too late. The money is now in AI infrastructure and energy. The market hasn’t caught up to these names yet. Natural gas is going to be absolutely huge for this. A very easy way to invest in this space is just look up stargates vendors and invest in those. All of the hyperscalers are building out datacenters the size literal cities. There is so much money pouring into every possible facet that small companies can easily take off with a few contracts servicing these data centers. TIC is a name to watch though if you wanted my highest conviction name.
Noice! I’m at 180% myself but my beta is way higher than yours lmao. Was on a steady increase till I had a huge increase on some option plays in Feb but then trumps tariff shit fucked me a good bit and went down to just a 30% return. Finally got it back up to 180% on some solid plays in Teradyne, Google and TIC.
Picking up more TIC on this 6% pull back. I believe we will see $20 a share this year.
Citrini made a post on NYSE: TIC as an under the radar datacenter play triggered today's pop
How’s that song go? TIC TIC BOOM 💥
A FAN-TAS-TIC bol trap in the making. $0 begins after close.
Bond traders don't know what is going on. The way trades are made happen over time, not overnight. It isn't revealed who bought or sold until much later, which makes it complicated to understand what is happening. The Treasury Department releases basic data like bid-to-cover ratios and yields post-auction, but this doesn’t fully explain why demand was high or low. For instance, a high bid-to-cover ratio might suggest strong demand, but it could mask whether primary dealers were forced to absorb excess supply due to weak end-investor interest. For example, a surprising jobs report might shift yield expectations, but its full impact on Treasury sales may only be clear after subsequent auctions or market reports. Another example: major holders like China or Japan, can significantly affect Treasury sales. However, their motivations (e.g., currency management or portfolio rebalancing) are often opaque and only revealed through delayed data, such as the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reports. If someone tells you they know what is going on, they have no idea about the reality of what is going on.
As someone currently trying to buy a SFH in San Francisco, I wish this were true. The TIC and condo markets are both really soft right now, but as far as entry level SFHs (under $1.5mm), there really isn’t much on the market. Everything is still going quickly and over asking with multiple offers.
long-term TIC flow report for this and next month will be a huge indicator but data won't be out till June
Yes the sell-off isn’t typical. We saw a similar move back in 2018, when Russia sharply reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings it was visible in the TIC reports with a sudden $80B drop. They used custodial accounts in Belgium, masking direct attribution at first. Now we see similar behavior: yields are rising fast without major domestic triggers, and China just halted rare earth exports a clear geopolitical signal. Add to that the drop in FX reserves and quiet USD accumulation by the PBoC this points to China likely selling Treasuries. This isn’t just technical — foreign exit is real, and it’s strategic.
Also, it’s all just rumors at this point. There’s a 1.5 month lag on data so we’ll know on April 16 from that TIC data if they really have been selling. They most definitely are though.