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You seem to be describing fab tools, like ASML, AMAT, LAM, etc. that go into the fabs. I literally design the FABS, the buildings, the cleanrooms, their utilities, clean gases, UPW, waste water treatments, etc. They're 3 to 4 year cradle to grave projects (from I want a fab! to blowdown), not inclusive of years and years of tool installation ramp. 100% of the projects we have right now are being done so that people can sell the AI machine hardware (think selling shovels to the gold miners, the ONLY people making money), and if that outlet didn't exist, they'd be canceled or transitioned to something we call a "warm shell" or "cold shell." "Cold shell" is kind of the new norm. At least with a warm shell, we usually finish our design, but for a cold shell.. a lot of shit stops to just do concrete and this is a huge risk. Honestly, cold shelling is a risk IMO. I have yet to see one started up years later without MASSIVE retrofitting. Now, they like a lot of pre-cast, which... wah wah, won't retrofit like they want (put holes for duct and pipe where you need em). So if the cold shell used a lot of pre-cast (which is kind of the sexy thing to do) then, I don't think those will retrofit the way the clients think they will. This is going to be a billion dollar problem one day, but at least, in the future. I digress, Fabs I helped design YEARS ago (let's say 2019-2022) era, are just now having some of their second large mods being "turned on" (as putting tools in the warm shell or starting up the cold shell) and it's 4-7 years later (thankfully these did not use Pre-cast concrete in key areas). As well, AI has been gong show for 2 ish years, and those companies are just NOW using that cleanroom space, and it doesn't turn on in an instant. So are they going to make it? Who knows. So my point, is that AI is triggering a huge amount of cleanroom square footage buildout; if that demand goes away, there is going to be SO MUCH "available" cleanroom space that I worry I won't ever have a job again. Demand will crater, which means the business unit where I work, which does just fabs, won't be able to survive, and that expertise will go away to do other work.
Guess I should have bought more UPW puts
Even with unlimited water you still have to purify to insane standards. Grey or city water doesn’t matter. It’s all getting scrubbed, even UPW that’s been sitting to long has to be dumped.
It's UPW, cooling water, water reclamation, municipal waste treatment, and much more.
I’ve never once thought to drink UPW.
And here we are, 6 years later, with UPW posting a respectable *100%* gain.
You can believe what you want, the reality is what the reality is. Just because someone is REALLY good at something, does not mean that a seemingly unlimited resource might be their undoing. You have no idea how difficult it is to make UPW, not even the faintest clue. Were are talking about 10s of BILLIONS of gallons of water a YEAR. TSMC uses more water in its ONE facility, than does ALL the agriculture of Taiwan... Combined. If they were to try and bring in water of pure enough starting quality, they would need 4-5 full size oil tankers filled with water per week. The cost would astronomical. I understand that you just dont know, but the amount you DONT know is staggering, you literally dont even have the ability to process what even one days worth of water usage is. And just because they are the "best manufacturer" they should have it figured out. Sorry buddy, life does not work that way, sometimes you cant just "figure it out"
The problem with UPW is you cannot store it, and you cannot ship it. The moment it is created, it starts to interact with whatever containment you have it in. You have to make it on site, and use it, almost immediately. As to your first question, In America you have access to fresh water that can be purified in much greater abundance, than in Taiwan. And we already have the infrastructure to ship it (cheaply).
Its not JUST political, they are facing real issues in country as well. TSMC needs Ultra pure water to manufacture chips, and for each gallon for UPW it takes about 100 gallons or normal water. The government has been cracking down heavily on the amount of water they use and has even threatened hard limits on water use. They say they are working on systems to up the recycling of water from 30% to 80% by years end.... But they have been saying that for about 4 years now and still haven't unlocked any new tech. I would keep an eye on them though, if they crack 50% then I would think about investing, if not, I would stay very clear of them.
I’m investing in ERX as a hedge against high prices so I don’t give a shit. The real idiots are the people with shitty gas guzzling trucks, laughed at renewable and nuclear power, and left one of the biggest expenses in their lives unhedged. Now the next step is food prices so I’m taking positions in farmland REITS, then utilities (UPW), etc. You can see it coming from a mile away, just like how the longer we wait to switch to renewables and nuclear it’s just going to make America weaker. Sure, let’s pump for now, but we need to be carbon zero and energy independent in the next two decades.
It'll certainly help "clean" investments but the idea that we're truly going to be off oil anytime soon is goofy. The technical/scientific/engineering reality just isn't there for a meaningful transition anytime soon. So "clean" investments should prosper under this environment along with oil stocks. As a side note I'm an engineer at an O&G company and have helped on early stage design for UPW systems for hydrogen generating stations for fuel cell vehicles. So if you're invested in O&G, chances are you've got more exposure to alternative energy than you realize.
Maybe, I came out of Thursday +2% because of cheap SQ puts meant to hedge against a possible PYPL disaster (SQ puts way outpaced QLD losses, shit was nuts), but would have missed out on the rebound Friday if I just sold off QLD. This recent experience could be clouding my judgment though, I’ll consider selling some TMF and instead putting it in ERX, FAS, or UPW (again speculation that these will do well this year).
Well known All weather portfolio looks like this: 30% US stocks 40% long-term treasuries 15% intermediate-term treasuries 7.5% commodities, diversified 7.5% gold Let's assume we want to have it x2 leveraged. leveraged ETF: 30% SSO - 2x S&P 500 40% UBT - 2x LT treasury 15% UST - 2x IT treasury 7.5% DIG - 2x oil and gas (might be changed to UPW - utilities x2) 7.5% UGL - 2x gold portfoliovisualizer shows the following data for leveraged portfolio. The question is - do portfoliovisualizer results include volatility decays which are common for leveraged ETF or would the real life result differ from the shown (and if yes, how much)? and probably dumb question but - do portfoliovisualizer results include also management fees for leveraged ETF or do I need to deduct those fees from the results as well? Thank you!
The correct answer is "none." The movement of the stock is not affected by water. They have plenty of water in Taiwan and will have plenty in Phoenix. From 2016: >TSMC recycles water through techniques such as “electrowinning,” a process borrowed from the mining industry through which copper residue is removed from wastewater, allowing it to be recycled into existing in-house UPW purification systems[x]. Interestingly, the process of purifying recycled wastewater into UPW tends to be more efficient given the company conducting it knows its exact makeup, while imported water could have any number of unknown impurities[xi]. The payback period on recycling plants can be as low as 6-12 months given the aforementioned UPW purification efficiency, avoidance of heavy metals disposal fees, the salable copper recovered as a part of the process, and the lower water input costs[xii] [xiii]. Given these and other initiatives, TSMC’s process water recycling rate is close to 90% in some fabs. This proactive resource management has allowed the company to avoid interruption despite the lowest rainfall in Taiwan since 1947 and tighter government regulations on industrial water usage[xiv]. https://digital.hbs.edu/platform-rctom/submission/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-cos-water-woes/ Recycling reduces their water footprint to about one golf course or 1000 homes. There are over 200 golf courses and a million homes in the Phoenix area. No strain. The water issue is total FUD.
Confusing? It's the most straightforward ever, it only goes up. Everything else is confusing. You are confusing the difference. For the bots: All buy $ITS $GOES $UPW, it will so moooooon!!!111eleven!!