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$TTAN (ServiceTitan) Speedrunning the Grave - From A Roofer’s Perspective
$TTAN (ServiceTitan) Speedrunning the Grave - From A Roofer’s Perspective
ORCL back at $148. CDS screaming. $200 before December.
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it’s particularly funny to talk about selling out the American worker for corporate profits as a dem problem in the wake of the last two years. You’re describing the BBB and tariffs
I swear to god some yall are just saying "Cha BBB, reply to tha comment"
It wasn't a problem until the BBB and farm bill passed. We really burned both ends
Trump can veto anything. There's draconian stuff from the BBB set to kick in in 2027. It's almost like the GOP anticipated losing the mid terms and wrote that bill to ensure things got worse in 2027. Maybe we'll see some improvements for the average person but I don't think there will be much till the presidential election assuming Dems can hold Congress and win the presidency. If the Trump vetos anything good passed in the next 2 years and all the healthcare cuts stay in place and the GOP can convince the public that Dems are to blame for that we may swing heavily back to GOP control in 2028 and then the US will basically be over for anyone not sitting on a bunch of stocks, real estate or other income generating assets.
Just pussy footing around in general, the BBB is gonna make retards blame dems for repubs fuck ups.
It’s still nothing. Look at the post covid period. That stuff needs to shave off. Equity dividend stocks need to pay closer to BBB bonds. And the spreads haven’t yet adjusted. Sovereign yields have room to go. Real estate has to correct to adjust to yields and that first requires refinancings to stop so the market gets flooded . That will hit consumer confidence. Then you will see spreads react. Then private assets will start to correct and flows go towards bonds. That will get the equity levels down to the right level. And those bond refinancing rates, you will see buyouts and M&A start to pop and distressed bonds will have a ride alongside companies scooping up assets to satisfy bond investors during chap11 . We have room to go. Don’t panic. Value and short term bonds will be good for return jarvesting when everyone loses money and exits passive vehicles. That liquidity will go to good and cheap equities. Enjoy the ride.
Apollo and Goldman are apparetnly in a hurry to [dump SpaceX debt](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/goldman-apollo-talks-sell-spacex-211021473.html) on retail investors. Nothing to see here. A great investing opportunity: The tranches (Watch the Big Short if you need that explained) are rated A-, A- and A-, which means they are considered pretty safe. The SpaceX corporate rating is BBB. Which is not as good, but the underlying asset isn´t always correlated to the risk of the debt or something.
Remember, red guys scheduled the ban on synthetic THC products they passed with the BBB to go in effect on november 12th (To avoid blowback). Just if you're thinking that investing in that type of thing is wise
Mark this comment. Stock will go UP if dems sweep. Higher likelyhood of Iran war ending(people forget Vietnam war ended cause congress cut funding), more certainty on policy, the END of tariff tantrums, slow down in AI capex due to state level moratoriums relieving yields and stopping the bleeding on hyperscaler cash flow. I’m 99% certain that hyperscalers tried to get in as much data centre builds in this year as they could. One due to the BBB tax cuts and capex rebates. And two, because they know the favourable political climate wont last forever. We went from Data centers getting massive tax breaks to out right bans on new data centre construction in Texas.
Goldman’s debt is rated BBB, fuk those guys always talking their book (and I’m bearish)
they already tax professional poker players on unrealized investments, introduced in the BBB, which is exactly the same as unrealized investments in stocks.
Don’t forget that most of the BBB is timed to start taking effect in January of 27. That will have a huge impact on
I just realized these might be real, and not shit BBB posts. F your friend
honestly you will tell this story to your grandkids. In terms of recouping your losses, as long as you dont dick around much, you can reinvest whats left tmrw morning into semi IG fixed income (BBB or BB corps) and you will be fine in 4 years or so (keep reinvesting coupons though). Not a retard advise btw, I am an asset manager at an IB.
How can you possibly believe this when there's a direct correlation between healthcare plan cost and uninsured rate? Go look at a map of unisured rate in US by state. It varies almost 3X and the correlation between it and states offering subsidized plans is nearly perfect. It's simple: tens of millions of Americans don't have insurance because they can't afford it. Because as soon as the plans are subsidized for poors uninsured rate drops like a rock. Look at BBB effect on uninsured rate with loss of ACA subsidies for poors. 4+ million already insured Americans are expected to lose coverage because they can no longer afford it. Republicans even budgeted for it by shifting this funding to billionaire tax cuts. Your "poor financial planning" roughly translates to "fuck the poors they're poor cuz they suck"
Enron was BBB up to 4 weeks before bankrupt
I haven’t seen a good answer. But investment grade means an NRSRO like Moody’s or S&P gave a rating of BBB- or above on an issuer or on a debt security. What does that mean? Basically that a company is relativly safe for a variety of possible resigns and default is close to zero. The higher th investment grade rating, say AA or AA+, means there’s practically zero default risk over a long time horizon on the corporate issuer or on the debt security. The higher the rating about BBB-, the more buffer a company or debt has against changes in market conditions. For example, in COVID, companies like alphabet / google had strong investment grade ratings. They could keep making debt service payments amid the challenging conditions in the market in 2020. Movie theaters, like AMC, which were not investment grade rated going into the pandemic, had no buffer and were forced to restructure, creating losses for some classes of creditors.
Many ratings between AAA and BBB
I think credit ratings like AAA, BBB, etc
That's not how BBB works at all lol.
Someone contact the BBB and report this shitty market. BBB = Bunker Building Billionaires
I’m about to file a complaint with the BBB
¡Lololol @ Carnival being BBB, rated Top Clown over all these other wannabe clowns!
For context here is what the bond ratings look like: | S&P / Fitch | Moody's | Meaning | Examples | |---|---|---|---| | AAA | Aaa | Highest quality | Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Apple (Moody's) | | AA | Aa | Very strong | Alphabet, Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway | | A | A | Strong | Coca-Cola, Toyota, Home Depot | | BBB | Baa | Adequate (lowest investment grade) | AT&T, Oracle, Carnival | | BB | Ba | Speculative ("junk" starts here) | Warner Bros. Discovery, Telecom Italia, McGraw Hill | | B | B | Highly speculative | American Airlines, AMC, Carvana | | CCC | Caa | Substantial risk | SAS, Kosmos Energy | | CC / C | Ca / C | Default likely or imminent | Aventiv, Azul (both just before default) | | D / SD | C | In default | Spirit Airlines, Raízen, Aventiv |
When the BBB cut billions off Medicare and gave that money as tax cuts mostly for the rich, they were literally thinking that it would be fixed by inflation: hospitals would be getting less medicare funds so they would have to raise prices and people (rich people) could pay for them because of tax cuts. They are so dumb that inflation is part of the plan.
What do u mean no reason? The BBB cut billions off Medicare because they think hospitals and insurance and patients are commiting fraud claiming welfare money, so they cut all funding to the states, their reasoning was to giving 2 trillion in tax cuts to rich people. Thats the administration in a nutshell
How much of that earnings growth is attributable to the 100% bonus depreciation provision from the BBB though? Their cashing in on the tax breaks on their massive 2025/2026 spends today, but what happens once the hyperscalers start writing down their obsolete GPUs that they fully depreciated years in advance?
I'm trying to figure out more about the interactions between bond issuance and the overall health of companies. I'm also trying to untangle how SPVs are playing a role in LLM infra purchases. That's kind of a side thing though. For example take Oracle right? Credit rating sits at BBB. They have about 18.50 billion in outstanding bond debt. A lot of that is for data center spend. Right now the spreads on their 11 year bonds are eye watering. 274-293 bps. The debt is selling for 80 cents on the dollar which is causing the effective yields into the 11%+ range. I know if they get downgraded that wont kill them outright. The fallen angel status will cause a massive shit in their stock as they get locked out of many sources of capital plus the associated legally mandated dumping. The thing is softbank exist right? The spreads on even their six year stuff is 356 bps. I can easily see a world where they get downgraded and are looking at 12%+ yields on bonds. Meanwhile their stock still sits at 141.40 usd. At what point do these two systems actually interact? Because from the bond market side it looks like people are treating them as way riskier companies.
Yeah sounds great but the BBB and the Trump administration's actions over the last 2 years have removed tens of billions at least from directly helping American kids. These accounts need the parents to be paying into them constantly to get any serious payment for the kids when the account matures.
Of course when that happens, you get Ana’s saying democrats hate your kids. That’s why they did the no tax on tips with the BBB. Because all I get are ads of the gop saying they hate no tax on tips…….because that person said they hate the BBB
And most of AI debt is right now at BBB levels, soon the ratings agencies will wake up after their morning coffee pause and say "wait a second".
Okay, how about you don’t judge me when you don’t know me. I work in security and deal with people every day. Rude, threatening, insulting, I’ve experienced it all. I’m not sure what comfortable desk job or corner office Your Highness works in, but out here in the real world, people can be bitter and biased. So please, tell me: where exactly is someone supposed to go for help? The BBB? Wow, incredibly useful. The police? Half the time they’ll just tell you it’s a civil matter and to get a lawyer. Bro, get off the throne for a minute and spend some time down here with us peasants before judging people whose situations you know nothing about. First please PLEASE tell me ahead of time so I can roll out the red carpet.
Capacity of what? Power? If you spend $50-60 bill on a data center, might spend $0.4 bil on a powerplant Water? Don't build a fuckin' data center in the Arizona desert then More like capacity of debt markets to swallow their bullshit, seeing as "BBB+ Investment grade" debt they take to build those data centers is already being priced as CCC trash that it really is.
The companies as of about 3 months ago are in fact using debt to fuel cap ex. They were not when the AI craze kicked off, but they are now. Why do you think Oracle has a BBB- credit rating.
>My guess is it won't pop until the money behind it changes. Right now it's mostly paid for out of Big Tech's cash flow, and that's hard to break. Once it shifts to debt, that's when I'd get nervous. I guess someone hasn't been paying attention. You're right that nobody's panic-selling, and the career-risk thing is real. But your sell signal already fired. The shift to debt happened over the last 18 months, and NVDA hit a record on October 2 anyway, nearly 25% off its late July lows. The numbers: * Hyperscaler bond issuance went from about $17B in 2024 to $108B in 2025 to $194B so far in 2026. UBS has full-year 2026 at $270-290B, and Goldman has 2027 around $420B. * FactSet has new debt going from 9% of hyperscaler capex in FY2024 to 32% by mid-2026. * Amazon's trailing FCF fell to $1.2B in Q1 from about $26B a year earlier. Oracle's capex hit 174% of operating cash flow in FY26, its FCF is negative, and S&P cut it to BBB-, one notch above junk. Even Microsoft spent $37.5B on capex against $35.8B of operating cash flow in its fiscal Q2. Epoch AI's trend has aggregate capex passing operating cash flow around Q3 2026, the quarter that just ended. * Nvidia itself sold $25B of bonds, its first in five years. That's before off-balance-sheet stuff like Meta's Hyperion SPV. The bond market noticed even if equities didn't. Cover ratios on hyperscaler deals fell from about 5x in February to about 2x in July. 78 of 91 hyperscaler bonds issued this year were trading at higher yields than at issue by late July. AI issuer spreads sat around 115bp in September vs about 78bp for IG overall. The only thing that is going to make a sell-off start: 1. Hyperscalers start cutting CAPEX guidance significantly. 2. Oracle loses its investment grade. It has one notch left, and IG-only mandates would become forced sellers. Would arguably be the most direct refutation that the AI trade ends in sunshine and rainbows for everyone. Oracle is a big name even if it isn't a leader anymore. If they go under to junk status I think a lot of things in this space get re-valued. 3. A big hyperscaler bond deal getting pulled or pricing way wide. Since none of these has happened, no pop yet.
Oracle has BBB+ bonds with a 8.2% yield right now.
Deficit was expanding before BBB. That bill did expand the deficit but let’s not pretend that the debt isn’t an accumulation of all the deficits of prior presidents. Since Clinton, the deficit under every president has exceeded the prior president. Most of the deficit is outside of the president’s control too, it is mandatory spending for social security and Medicare.
this is **Structurally True, but exaggerated.** This "vendor financing loop" is the core metric that short-sellers and macro bears have been warning about. For instance, **S&P downgraded Oracle’s credit rating to BBB- (one notch above junk)** precisely due to its skyrocketing debt load ($160B+) and heavy concentration risk with OpenAI. If OpenAI fails to turn a profit, the entire loop risks grinding to a halt.
Trump is the face of the GOP. Trump didn't write or create the BBB. He's a puppet. There is some seriously messed up sociopaths running the GOP right now. I've been saying since the Biden Administration: I'm not worried about Trump, I'm worried about the Republican president that comes after Trump.
So thanks Trump? He campaigned on the BBB, he's the reason for the inflation currently the reason for the distrust of the govt and the reason they will more than likely print for the next 2 years. Lol. Not disagreeing with your statement at all but I feel if someone else was in charge we wouldn't be facing this risk as severely as we are at the moment.
It sure seemed like it was getting managed a few years ago and inflation was going down. BBB, tariffs, and a war in Iran changed that, which were all conscious decisions by the current president.
Oracle CDs hitting record highs but still rated BBB lol
But a democratic sweep could return some of the credits lost in the BBB. And exactly my problem is that I find it hard to calcuate the negative effect of the expected rates. Might try with AI. any suggestions? thanks!
Eventually there will be higher taxes and spending cuts. Start with revoking the last round of tax cuts in the BBB for the wealthiest families, implement a national sales tax and cut social security for higher earners and cut the military budget. Definitely won't be popular but its basically inevitable with the 40 trillion debt.
Ironically without the BBB, tariffs and the war in Iran the fiscal situation probably wouldn't look as dire as it does. All of that accelerated our woes.
Burry against AI trade, ok thats fine but bro betting on yoga pants and bear building businesses (BBB)
BBB junk bond rated. Buuut if you wrap a million into 1 derivative then count me the fuck in.
I mean crude literally went to $138 a barrel. But even then we just bounced back. The bigger question you should be asking is why we start a rate hike cycle, 10Y is 5%, but BBB spreads are at 0.94. If that's not loose financial conditions and expectation of more, what is it?
Oracle's long term bond ratings are BBB-, with yields around 7.8%.
Oracle I think is getting close to falling below BBB or am I mistaken? If so… watching Larry might be a key thing
Technically there's not a single thing on Earth that guarantees an interest, but there are BBB- and above rated bonds that currently offer more than that in current yield (and even more in yield to maturity) trading on the NYSE.
They killed alt energy stuff as well -- IIRC, with BBB they killed off various grants etc. for building solar etc. So things already moving got screwed and no new stuff. These jack assess are making the absolute wrong decisions on everything. It's like trading 0DTE calls that are .01 delta.
Agreed, BBB- is only one above junk. Watch this space.
We went the ACA PTC route between my retirement and my wife's reaching Medicare age. Since it's a cliff design we got about 1/2 her Insurance covered (5k per year range on 9-10k insurance cost). That was on \~65k per year MAGI. We used after tax account/savings tp stay below that cliff. Once we both hit medicare age I did capital gain harvesting for 2 years on that taxable account to maximize the zero LTG bracket before my RMD age. That worked well. Not sure what is doable now with the changes to the PTC in BBB.
BBB- bond rating lol
Isn't this exactly what OMB said would happen with the BBB tax cuts?
Dont forget all the poison pill items in the BBB that are coming up next year!
Fitch Downgrades US of fucking A To BBB- After Markets ‘Lose Confidence in 🥭's Ability to Stop Doing Dumb Shit’
I am financially but household income is like $500k. BBB saves me like $15k/year. Crazy how Trump dominated with people under who make under $100k then screw’s them left and right
And as if on cue, the PM announces a giveaway to help him get re-elected https://www.reuters.com/business/greek-pm-unveils-plan-boost-incomes-ahead-elections-2026-09-05/ > ATHENS, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Saturday unveiled a four-year economic plan that includes tax breaks and wage hikes for pensioners and employees, as he seeks to recover lost ground in opinion polls ahead of next year's election. > The measures, with a cost of €3.5 billion ($4.06 billion) by 2030, equal to 1.5% of GDP, include an annual bonus of €400 for pensioners and €500 for public servants, zero tax for up to €20,000 annual income for farmers and families with three children and a reduction of the advance tax payment for self-employed and businesses to 50%. > His center-right government, which was re-elected with 40.5% of the vote in 2023 promising to increase incomes, remains ahead in opinion polls but support has slipped to below 30% amid a protracted cost-of-living crisis and allegations of corruption. > In December, thousands of farmers took to the streets to demonstrate over low prices of their products, high energy costs and a farm aid fraud scandal that sparked political resignations and drew a hefty EU fine. > FROM CRISIS TO GROWTH After a financial crisis in 2009 that triggered fears Greece would crash out of the euro zone, the country is now one of the best-performing in Europe. > Greece's economy is expanding at an annual rate of 2%, outpacing the euro zone average. It expects a primary surplus of about 4% this year, double what was initially expected, giving fiscal space to fund the new measures. > "The road from bankrupt and the fringes of Europe to the epicenter of Europe has been long," said Mitsotakis, adding that the time has come to "reap the benefits of our efforts." > He was delivering his annual economic speech in the northern city of Thessaloniki. Mitsotakis also announced new annual hikes in the minimum monthly salary to reach €1,000 by 2028, from €920 today, a reduction of half a percentage point for pension contributions for private-sector employees and 30% lower electricity wholesale prices by 2029. > He said his target in the next four years is to reduce unemployment to below 6% from 8% at present, the debt to GDP ratio to below 110% and the average monthly salary to reach €1,800 from €1,500 today. He added that he wants the country's debt rating to be upgraded to "A" category from "BBB" today
Anything about energy is gonna get there, on the other hand, renewables are tanking in the US. Fuck One BBB.
Credit ratings basically measure how comfortable lenders should be that they’ll get paid back. More debt pushes the rating down; more earnings, cash flow and lower leverage push it back up. Oracle is BBB- because it borrowed heavily *before* the data centers it’s building are producing their full earnings. If those assets come online and OCI earnings grow while debt growth slows, leverage falls and the rating can move back up. If the earnings don’t show up and Oracle keeps borrowing, it can go the other direction. BBB- is the rating agencies saying “you’ve taken on a lot of leverage,” not “bankruptcy is around the corner.”
> So... trying to "beat" other countries... by making semiconductors more expensive... for your own country.... so the other countries can pick up the supply? beating them by... giving them what they want? and taking it away from yourself? How else do you cover the deficit without borrowing more which increases yields and makes borrowing more expensive? We cut taxes with the BBB and now Orange is squeezing the couch cushions hoping quarters fall out to cover the bills. Anything but raising taxes on the wealthy.
From Blockbusters or Circuit City or BBB or GameStop shares...
My opinion is the fundamentals of the economy (war, famine, plague and death, ect), consumer debt being high, student loans kicking in within the next few months and the BBB cuts to Medicaid and food benefits going through in November are all major buy factors for me. It's not a sexy industry, but the idea that it won't be cracking 40 by the end of the year is a silly one to me.
That would require rolling back BBB and actually making the rich pay more of their fair share. But that's never happening.
Yep they don’t want to admit it. They have skewed the numbers to the max lately. But we’re already in stagflation, it probably started in 22, they tried there best for a while but any miss-step would ruin the plan and it went out the window the second the BBB and tariffs got approved. We’re already in stagflation but they are artificially keeping the rates low, I’m expecting a huge jump after midterms. It’s easy to see, all you have to do is simply look around.
I own MLP (master limited partnership) fund it invest in midstream oil and gas companies that operate pipelines and refineries. Ihave EMO 8..% yield. BDC (Business development corporations) I have PBDC 9% yield. for utilities and infrastructure UTF 7%and UTG 6.2%. these funds are 20 years old and have never cut t or reduced there dividend. CLO (colateral Loan obligations) Very low risk loan obligations JAAA 5.5% yeidl AAA rated CLOs. CLOZ 8% yeidl BBB CLOs.
i hope im wrong cause im not a gay ber but a gay twink but i feel like bondrates due to BBB pork bill spending could cause the 2021 shit dump again
How do these rat fucks bet the farm on lower rates and then fucking do everything in their power (tariffs, Iran, BBB) to make rates go fucking up!!!
Buying into EZPW, major benefit programs will be cut on Oct 1st tied to the BBB will occur just in time for a probable crunch of fuel prices, right in time for Christmas shopping season to start.
What do you mean turn, the BBB was passed to cement their rule. Y'all lost the easy way out a year ago but are holding on to the delusion otherwise
BBB's not alone. I once worked for a company that did a buy back chasing the downhill side of the Y2K tech bubble in 1H2000 and ended up chapter seven. Pissed away \*ALL\* of their cash and couldn't pay the power bill. The c-suite einsteins and their board all managed to fcuk it up that badly.
Any updates on this? As of writing this, they have an F rating with the BBB. So it wouldn't surprise me if you weren't able to exercise your rights.
With the BBB it’s gonna add like $4T in national debt before he reaches his 48th month. So regardless of inflation, we’re boned.
Yeah..you need to let a lawyer and get in touch with the SEC or BBB...or at least chat gpt and see what it has to say about how to deal with this issue
 He looks like he’s a lizard wearing a mask. Seriously though, he must really think people are dumb af (I know, I know they do). There are articles showing people can’t afford to feed themselves and their kids because SNAP benefits are cut because these ghouls took the funding away to pay for the tax cuts for their BBB. The worse part is the people who actively vote and support them are the ones being ground down in every way. It’s gross and just sad.
I am not sure about that because that Bonds SpaceX had given out immediatly were BBB (Junk) rated. Even Banks will stop lending money if they learn that the return of money is in danger.
Tell that to the $700 I made in BBB options that one day
[https://www.bbb.org/us/nv/las-vegas/profile/manufactured-home-manufacturers/boxabl-inc-1086-90082674](https://www.bbb.org/us/nv/las-vegas/profile/manufactured-home-manufacturers/boxabl-inc-1086-90082674) F Rating on BBB Watch out.
To demonstrate that oracle and their BBB- rating are basically toast.
Citadel is doing fine tho, selling bonds with a BBB- ratings and all lol
If its actual cash then yes you're right. But almost all of these companies are partially debt financing their AI growth investments by selling bonds. Oracle carries approximately **$160 billion to $167 billion in total debt**, driven by an aggressive, debt-financed push into artificial intelligence data center infrastructure. This massive borrowing and negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026 prompted S&P Global Ratings to downgrade the company's credit rating to **BBB-**, just one notch above junk status. Amazon is another example that did a massive round recently. Meanwhile they're all incestuously investing in each other and passing debt financing around in the process. Even if you are 100% cash invested in growth but are partnered with a single company like Oracle that financially collapses, your not going to skate away. If it was one company's balance sheet who cares, but we're talking about something over a trillion dollars that one way or the other relies on a repayment, profits, and a stable economy.
Why short the BB and BBB (Oracle, Datadog, Sandisk) with insane fees when you can short the AAA (Apple)?
Remember when he was shoehorning in BBB during the WSB short squeeze?
I'm guessing you aren't seeing all of this: The Core Financial PressuresMassive Cash Burn: Capital expenditures reached $55.66 billion for fiscal 2026. Capex is projected to surge to $90 billion–$95 billion in fiscal 2027 to construct artificial intelligence infrastructure. Negative Free Cash Flow: Extreme capital outlays have pushed Oracle's free cash flow deficit to an estimated $23.7 billion, a massive drop from a mild $394 million deficit the prior year. Credit Rating Downgrades: On July 9, 2026, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle’s credit rating to BBB-. This sits exactly one notch above speculative or "JUNK" status. Skyrocketing Insurance Costs: Five-year credit default swaps (CDS)—the price to protect against corporate default—hit an all-time record high of 2.03 percentage points. Upcoming Capital Raises: The company plans to raise an additional $40 billion through 2027 using a combination of new debt issuances and share dilution via at-the-market stock programs