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Sell high, buy low (GFR that is)… sorry medical joke.
It's always wise to overweight an industry the whole economy needs when prices fall below the marginal cost of production. Your signal to buy oil stocks was when WTI fell [below $65](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2501#tab-questions) in 2025. The C-suites of oil companies came to their positions last decade when [hundreds of oil patch companies](https://www.haynesboone.com/-/media/project/haynesboone/haynesboone/pdfs/energy-reports/oil_patch_bankruptcy_monitor.pdf?rev=e57d3129b7504ea190df5d33dbacae44&hash=7CEFB1F6790BB732795472806899C931) were declaring bankruptcies. They can't imagine $100 WTI, much less the $200+ a protracted denouement to Bibi's war might entail. I see no reason at present to take profits on my overweight in small cap oil stocks (EGY, VIST, GFR) or leveraged commodity ETF (UCO) yet. It will come, but only when this administration sees talking as preferable to bombing.
US shale producers problems are OPEC opening spigots to maintain market share and punish Kazakhstan, high decline rates. and running out of drill sites (75% of the good ones have already been completed). Venezuela's incremental production is like that of deep Alberta oil sands. Similar asphalt like petroleum (bitumen), requiring twin well bores (one for steam, one for production), steam injection for years so the the bitumen will flow to the production bores, and either expensive diluent or hydrocracking treatment to flow through pipelines. Venezuela's Orinoco oil sands will be *more expensive* to produce than Alberta's, as there's poor road infrastructure, no local source of low cost stranded natural gas to generate steam (instead, some of the product is used) or offer diluent (condensate and NGLs). And, of course a hostile populace, with either insurgency or assassinations of oil workers. OPEC+ decisions and the global economy matter now. Venezuela doesn't matter for 5-10 years. Those Orinoco oil sands won't be produced at larger than present scale until producers have a futures curve north of 80 or 90 per barrel. In 2026, WTI will probably see the 40s, given all the signs of global recession. Bad for *all* oil producers, but also a buying opportunity for some. I'm planning an entry then with a focus on offshore W. Africa conventional oil (EGY), lower cost/less exploited shale in Argentina (VIST), and Canadian oil sands (CNQ, the clear leader, and GFR, sort of a back door into Strathcona, secretly my favorite oil play).
And again after GFR, and mid 10’s, and to an extent again after the implosion that started late 2021. This sub was a t bill sales convention. I took 6 figures worth of downvotes for pointing out that “risk free” was actually fraught with risks, including the near certain risk that your after-inflation return would be nada and the risk that your capital was being locked up when best to be free, opportunity risk, etc.
This. Sometimes they don’t even have very concrete reasons for the dip (or rally). So media and pundits create a narrative for it. “Yen carry trade”... which few if any of us are affected by. Or take the swoon that started at the end of 2021. The admin had vaccinated everyone, stores and travel and entertainment and business and sports and cruises and parks were re-opening, yet the market took a long and steep plunge. The retroactive narrative? “Chip shortage”. Ok, which chip? Don’t know. From which company? Don’t know that either. We still don’t. What are the workarounds? Can’t answer that if we don’t what chips are supposedly short. Somehow Chinese TVs and toasters full of chips were still continuing to arrive at ever lower prices though. In retrospect, the main cause of the unsuitable bear market seemed to be the fact that stock markets had rallied so strongly that a pullback to mean was inevitable. Bull market in 2024 and 2025 has me wondering. If we do go into a prolonged bearish phase, there’s more than enough real economic malpractice going on with the administration to explain another GFR level event.
Reality check - the markets will not go down until people start caring about the debt problem. The only thing that drives this economy is the never ending debt creation, even though we are on track to spend more money on interest payments this year than the historic TARP rescue package in 2008 of more than $1 trillion, the market knows that the reality is that whatever problem happens will just get solved with the creation of more dollars. In the end, you just have to convert those dollars into some other asset (these days equities and crypto currencies seem to the be the favorite of the masses) and the dollar will ultimately get devalued through the new debt added. For decades the only answer to all problems has just been to increase the system's liquidity by infusing more printed money, and until that is no longer a viable option the intensity of this cycle will just increase as has been apparent these last 20 years (comparing the size of the rescue package and speed of implementation of the money between dot com, then GFR, and then COVID; size of stimulus grew exponentially and the government was faster to deliver the money at each subsequent event given the greater risk that the longer they leave the problem to solve itself the greater it snowballs into something worse). Doubt most will have read to this point, but just a reminder that regardless of how much you believe the market should selloff it needs an actual trigger with the subsequent panic fear that the solution cannot be easily achieved.
I disagree with this. The market has crashed about 4 times since 2020 and they all recovered in weeks or months except the recession in 2022. That took a full year to rebound. But if you bought the covid crash or the liberation day crash and a few other 15-20% corrections, you would have done incredibly well. If you wait a year, most of those gains will be gone and you might as well have invested before the correction happened. I lived through the GFR in 2008 and know that took years to recover and that is always possible. I bought a house during the bottom of the market so I got lucky there but even if you buy in at 20% during a 50% year long crash, I think that is still a good move.
That fund didn’t “inverse Cramer”. To actually do that you’d need to be short 40+ very well performing and well known stocks. Any fund that actually did that would be bankrupt in days. The fund you’re thinking of marketed itself on a fake concept of pretending to inverse Cramer. But even their watered down version became non-viable within months and closed down. The Long Cramer version still exists. Indeed, Cramer did crush it when he was on Wall Street, and his “picks” after leaving the industry include pretty much all of the top performing stocks of the last 25 years. The results are boosted further by his knack for knowing when to “sell all”. Doing so helped his Wall Street averages and his post-wall street record as well. He was the loudest voice screaming sell everything before the GFR. This was broadly misrepresented by his enemies and is now falsely adopted by most of reddit and the lazy media/entertainment world. He warned people ahead of recession and rate fear collapses and notably the massive pandemic selloff. There’s things about him that trouble me, but 99% of the stories here are pure disinformation.
[Official inflation](https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/s/GFR3Sed3WT) remains a lie. Unemployment has been a lie since the dotcom bubble: [LFPR is wobbling](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART), which accurately reflects the reality that nobody knows what to expect next. Fewer shipping containers is merely predictive: when it translates to less actual spending it will become an actual problem.
What is going to be the next reserve currency? No other currency can handle the volume or the uncertainty involved with that. Using reddit as your weather vane of foreign enthusiasm for Usd is not a good measurement. The bond auction this week went better than expected considering the current turmoil. And everyone still wants to trade with the US. Recession can occur but our reserve currency status was never in question during the GFR and I don't think it is now.
Everyone who was invested in 2007 and stayed invested, continued to DCA, and just kept living... are all vastly better off. Those that overleverage always get burned. Just keep swimming. Tip from a genX... .com crash / 08 GFR / Covid / Debt Spiral & Monetary Debasement Still here.
That’s certainly the common sentiment. But it can be short sighted. Electricity remains everyone’s most expensive and ever-rising utility. And there’s a storm cluster of other problems that will just keep making that worse for decades to come. Even as oil prices fluctuate, notice that electric bills never drop. And now, electric utility bills will increasingly pack in higher rates to fund costs arising from their decaying generation and grid. Notice too that demand from tech oligarchs for electricity will further spike rates, as will increasing load on HVAC systems due to climate change, plus global demographics, plus shifts to things like heat pumps over fossil fuel system. There’s just an endless army of things that will drive the already high cost of electricity up and up and up. Now imagine you have something that produces free electricity from a source that can’t charge you and in a way that’s near impossible to tax. And that something also makes the electricity very close to where it’s needed, so no troublesome and expensive distribution required either. Solar may not be perfect, but it’s pretty close. Excising solar from new construction is a false economy. People will soon realize it’s like saving build costs by skipping insulation. The incremental financing cost burden is easily overcome by the long term savings. The current attitude is a bit of pouting that the ROI is only “excellent” now, not “super excellent” the way it was briefly. Would you fret over your electricity bill going away in 8 years versus 5? Either is actually a nice prospect. People have gotten over this emotional sentiment with housing. At first they pouted that houses weren’t cheap like they were after GFR. But they came to realize that even at high prices, having a house is better than not having one. Same should come true with solar. A solar system financed at 6% works just as well as one financed at 3%. A few years of interest is nothing compared to many years of tiny electric bills.
Two now ***former*** directors are assisting a take over plot; GFR is trying to institute a shareholder rights plan to prevent it. [Greenfire Announces Date for Rights Plan Hearing with the Alberta Securities Commission and Resignation of Two Directors](https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/225201/Greenfire-Announces-Date-for-Rights-Plan-Hearing-with-the-Alberta-Securities-Commission-and-Resignation-of-Two-Directors) So several people seem think GFR is undervalued. 43 cents per share diluted in Net income in Q2 2024. [Greenfire Resources Announces Future Growth Plans, Including Projects Under Development to Increase Net Facility Production Capacity by 74%, Representing Significant Potential Value for Shareholders](https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/225778/Greenfire-Resources-Announces-Future-Growth-Plans-Including-Projects-Under-Development-to-Increase-Net-Facility-Production-Capacity-by-74-Representing-Significant-Potential-Value-for-Shareholders) [Greenfire Future Growth Plans at Hangingstone Facilities Presentation October 2024](https://www.greenfireres.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Greenfire-Future-Growth-Plans-at-Hangingstone-Facilities-Presentation-October-2024.pdf)
No, it’s 100% accurate. Please provide me a set of dates where QE was high and the market wasn’t rising. And please don’t cherry pick the 5 and 10% corrections I just spoke of, which are to be expected even during for long rallies. Jan 1 2009: QE in response to the GFR takes full effect and sustains for 10 years. The market goes on an unprecedented bull run during that time. 2018 QE ends and QT begins, market corrects 20%. 2020 massive QE due to Covid, massive market rally. 2022 QE ends and QT begins, correction. 2023 QT peaks with immediate signal from the fed that QE will resume in 2024….tell me happened please? Enjoy living in opposite world, where buying high and selling low is the game plan, where rallies follow QT and corrections follow QE.
So you knew enough to make a superb buy of it on his recommendation but not enough to take 378% profit when he told you to sell it in 2010? I guess it doesn't matter, since you'd be a millionaire several times over since his 3 most vocal recommendations after protecting you from GFR were NFLX, AAPL and MNST. > they haven't since 2008 That inaccurate statement makes you a DNUT.
65% of people own homes with very low interest rates, which means they have no motivation to move, which is part of the problem. Homes get multiple bids whenever they come on the market. Layoffs could have an impact, but a lot of homeowners are retired and 40% of homes don't even have a mortgage. The bigger issue is that homebuilders are reluctant to increase inventory because they were burned badly by the GFR. They also know that it 10-15 years, baby boomers will start dying off in significant numbers which will increase inventory.
>Not sure, but it doesn’t smell healthy. I don’t apply it with bare fingers as the packaging suggests. I definitely use gloves. But applying it is easy, I just wipe it on with a paper towel. The key is to apply multiple super thin coats. I lightly sand with 400 grit sandpaper between coats - I leave the dust on the item as the next layers solvent will redissolve the dust and fill in any rough grain to give you a very smooth feel. It’s naturally very glossy, and you can tone it down with some 0000 steel wool after the last coat. I then finish it up with some Johnson paste wax and a buffing.Also - if you want to find out ingredients, just google the name of the product and MSDS. The material data safety sheet will tell you roughly the ingredients. She was a fund manager. All of her funds imploded during the GFR, because almost none of her "innovative" companies actually had revenue. She "left to pursue other opportunities" at that point. A.K.A. she was fired but they didn't want bad publicity.
> **people on the left are so anti-liberal** that we're going to end up electing right-populists who will suddenly implement a bunch of policies that they will hate even more than the current setting. (Tax cuts, slashing funding to the IRS, cutting food stamps benefits, worsening consumer protection on healthcare, etc. While increasing the deficit.) Which may juice the stock market temporarily, but be bad. Not sure what the bold part means, but yes, conservative extremist disinformation is a problem in all areas of culture, and that's especially true in economics and finance. We see it in historical revisionism about the last century of recessions and debt accumulation and a hundred other significant false narratives. We see it in the big lie that conservative administrations have somehow been "better" at the economy. And we see it in the present day that IRS agents collecting from tax cheats is somehow bad yet we deserpately need revenues to fund government spending. We see it in how the first two years of this administration were the best stock market in US history, the best jobs economy in 75 years, a miraculous vaccine deployment and recovery from a horrendously mismanaged pandemic, and a miraculous dodging of a GFR or worse after the previous admin printed 40% of the US dollars in existence. Zero credit was given. Instead, every media and reporter was asking "how are you dealing with this worst economy in human history?" or "Ignoring the fact your Union just successfully leveraged a strong jobs market strength to get you a 30% raise and better working conditions and security, how awful is it that eggs are costing you a couple bucks more?" And of course it's always someone attending a $500 sports event or a $1000 concert or just back from a cruise, and they're complaining about egg prices without even realizing the egg price hike was temporary and caused by avian flu, not economic policy. It happens with the incessant and ignorant calls to "drill more oil!" even as the US is producing more oil and gas than ever before in human history, or that our megacorp energy companies are sitting on thousands of leases they aren't tapping into because they want to maximize profit. It's how there's bellyaching about health care costs and budgets even though basic research would reveal that every other civilized nation that went to universal health care model slashed the cost by 50-75%, and they also made their businesses much more competitive since all they have to worry about is raw compensation, not a weird compensation soup in which health insurance skews the loaded labor rate drastically. It's mass disinformation unfortunately. The longer and worse it gets, the more it makes me wonder if we might deserve what they're doing to us.
You don't provide even one bit of detail so there's no way to say for sure, but probably not. Also, you've probably been duped by media hysteria about inflation. Carefully measured, inflation was only about 4% this year, while you probably hot more hours/higher wages/better job opportunities/benefits, which more than offset the brief period at the start of the year when avian flu caused egg prices to spike. Inflation isn't the boogeyman that certain groups and media want you think it is. Those groceries that cost you more in 2023? Yeah, that also cost more from 2017 to 2018, and from 2018 to 2019, and 2019 to 2020, and so on. Price jumps, once normalized, don't tend to go away, at least not without some major event like a GFR. Same as how minimum wage and salaries don't drop either.
MBSC (now GFR ) and MNTN ( filed [amendment 4 to the S-4](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1978124/000110465923128399/tm2316508-12_s4a.htm) registration statement this morning ) are two others.
Yup I think the prices are all fake and gay and once the song stop playing ( GFR) then we will see prices crater