HPAI
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$HPAI could be a hidden gem!
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Cry softly, wiping my eyes with HPAI shares
Buying up HPAI if it crashes
What website are you using to track to HPAI case count? Here's a good article from today: [https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/usda-current-hpai-outbreak-has-impacted-more-than-197-million-birds/](https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/usda-current-hpai-outbreak-has-impacted-more-than-197-million-birds/)
As you know, there are two migrations each year - south in fall and north in spring. The weather this year was different than the last few years and we saw an earlier migration which you pointed out in your post, but for the same reasons, we see a much later migration back north. We are solidly into and nearing the peak of that migration back. Because it is late, either the rate or duration of migration will be longer this year. How that plays out depends a bit on the biology here. Warmer weather and longer daylight does speed up degradation of the virus in the environment. But the virus persists in migratory bird flocks year round, which is why this always comes back alongside migration every year after this clade of HPAI evolved. Typically, warmer weather coincides with migration being done, so it is tough to distinguish which of these factors is more important, but in 2015, the last commercial flock was hit in june. My prediction is that the risk to the supply chain is similar even though the timing is different and that this risk is not currently priced in. It's possible that this year's strain or commercial facility defenses are less bad this year, but the numbers of the last month point toward that not being true in the north.
DD: Egg demand is famously inelastic, Americans keep eating an average of \~1 egg per day across a year, almost no matter what. Price is therefore primarily driven by supply. Eggs are very consistent creatures - we get about an egg per hen per day. So price is just a reflection of how many egg-laying chickens we have, and we need about a chicken per person. When that ratio changes, we bid up the price of eggs quite high before people don't want to buy them anymore. When the price goes up, Cal-Maine goes up. As the largest egg producer in the USA, $CALM is tightly correlated to the wholesale egg price. Last year, egg prices skyrocketed to above $8.5/dozen wholesale after the rapid loss of about 30million egg laying hens to the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI; avian flu). While so many other companies lost their flocks, Cal-maine remained HPAI-free and started the year with over a billion in straight up cash. After last year, the egg people raised production for this year, hoping to do what cal-maine did. In response, egg prices dropped to historic lows ($0.36/dozen wholesale), with the oversupply. $CALM dropped of course, and hit it's price floor of P/TBV at \~$73. I think there will be a massive HPAI storm and I think $CALM will be perfectly positioned for that. 1) The storm. HPAI is spread by nature's drone attacks - it stays active amongst wild bird populations and falls from the sky on chicken littles as \~3.5 billion birds migrate over commercial facilities and across the country in the spring. HPAI was low early on this year because colder weather kept waterways frozen and migration halted. We are seeing the same amount of migration compressed now into a shorter window starting the last week. This window overlaps with the highest period of demand for eggs - easter. I have been using [Cornell's Bird-cast](https://birdcast.org/migration-tools/migration-forecast-maps/) and [Ducks Unlimited migration map](https://www.ducks.org/migrationmap) to monitor the migration patterns. Both sources agree that migration has begun and we are not yet at full force. Meanwhile, according to the [USDA APHIS page](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks), in just the last 30 days, almost 14 million birds have been culled already for HPAI infections. In terms of table egg layers and pullets that become layers, across the last 2-3 weeks, we have been losing about 3-4 million chickens in the egg supply chain per week. The top 3 - Indiana, Iowa, Ohio - are beginning their migration season and already seeing accelerating numbers of small backyard operations and smaller commercial operations get hit (mostly turkeys and ducks which are more susceptible and often hit first). The fourth most productive egg state, Pennsylvania is already getting wiped out, having lost 7.4 million egg laying birds this year already. 2. $CALM Cal-maine survived last year when HPAI was at its worst and has already survived the hardest part of this year - their operations are mostly in the south, where migratory birds have been spending the long winter. Their biosecurity protocols are working and the viral load is shifting north, which means they are likely to capitalize on any supply shock that happens this year. They are sitting on an absurd amount of cash. They started the year with 1/4 of their whole market cap in cash. They have authorized share buybacks with $375million remaining for buybacks. No egg company can survive forever when eggs are as cheap as they were this year, but Cal-maine will outsurvive them all and then buy them all. Like they did with Creighton Brothers and Crystal Lake recently. 3. This is a potential safe haven in a world where there are few of those. alternative places to park cash are risky right now with government debt spiraling, and many of the other commodities having already run up or for industrial materials, subject to fall in global recession. Eggs don't rely on global trade, have inelastic demand, and a nearterm catalyst that may drive substantial returns. 3. My targets: We won't realistically drop below 73. The massive profits of last year raise all the stock prices we should see given the same scenario as last year because of the cash pile factoring into their valuation. If HPAI spread continues at this rate, I think we see 115. If it accelerates, I could see it hitting 130. If no new cases, it probably trades sideways.
Dipped in eggs from birds that were supposed to be culled because of HPAI, but that's socialism, so we kept them producing.
Yeah, you won’t see shortages, unless it’s poultry where HPAI struck. Most food is US grown and tariffs have been exempt on a lot of agriculture products.
Egg prices have surged due to a combination of factors, primarily an ongoing outbreak of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI), which has led to the culling of millions of hens, and inflationary pressures. Additionally, consumer demand has increased due to anxiety [buying.So](http://buying.So) far in 2025, nearly 31 million egg-laying hens have been affected by H5N1. Another 2.5 million pullets have been culled. For comparison, roughly 38 million egg layers were impacted in all of 2024. One element of that plan was to increase egg imports, which ramped up in February to help alleviate domestic supply shortages and bring down prices. But [new tariffs](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/tariff-news) enacted by the Trump administration could impact those imports.
*03/12/25 5:08 AM By* [*Steve Davies*](https://archive.is/o/0gbXg/https://www.agri-pulse.com/authors/2-steve-davies) "The Agriculture Department is de-emphasizing vaccines as a tool to control bird flu in poultry, leaving advocates for the shots seeking clarification on where the department stands.USDA’s pivot from vaccines came barely a week after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins unveiled a five-pronged, $1 billion bird flu strategy that includes biosecurity and deregulation measures but also contains $100 million for vaccines. [The department touted support for the plan from farm groups](https://archive.is/o/0gbXg/https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2025/02/27/what-they-are-saying-strong-support-usdas-actions-combat-avian-flu), many of which specifically mentioned the importance of moving ahead on vaccines.“USDA will be hyper-focused on a targeted and thoughtful strategy for potential new-generation vaccines, therapeutics, and other innovative solutions to minimize depopulation of egg-laying chickens along with increased bio-surveillance and other innovative solutions targeted at egg-laying chickens in and around outbreaks,” said USDA's press release announcing the strategy. **But after President Donald Trump’s speech to Congress March 6, Rollins told** [**Breitbart.com**](http://Breitbart.com) **that vaccines were “off the table,” in part because of what she called the ineffectiveness of vaccination in Mexico.“I think there is some misinformation out there, and misreporting, that USDA is somehow moving at light speed toward a vaccine of dairy cattle and egg layers but the 100 percent answer to that is no, it’s not true, and we have a tremendous amount of work to do before we would even consider that as a potential solution and that is at least a year or more away,” she was quoted as saying.** Turkey and egg industries, as well as groups representing dairy, strongly support efforts to develop and authorize use of vaccines, and animal health companies have been working on the effort – not just in poultry but in cows. The broiler chicken industry has warned that use of vaccines, even if employed only in egg-laying operations, would severely disrupt exports.United Egg Producers President and CEO Chad Gregory said this week “vaccination is the most promising solution to protect our flocks and the most likely to restore and stabilize the U.S. egg supply. Maintaining a vaccination strategy for egg production is our highest priority."Chad Gregory (UEP photo) “America’s egg farmers are looking forward to clarity on the status of \[USDA’s\] vaccination strategy,” he said. “While vaccines are not a quick fix for HPAI, we believe science-based solutions combined with active surveillance are critical tools for egg farmers – and we support continued research into vaccination strategies for the U.S.” [Source: USDA backs off on vaccines for HPAI](https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/22545-usda-backs-off-on-vaccines-for-hpai)
HPAI? "Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains are deadly to domestic poultry and can wipe out entire flocks within a matter of days." [https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza)
Here is a theory for covid. Sorry but this is long so get ready to read TL;DR There were two pandemics occurring simultaneously COVID and H7N9. The real danger was/still is(?) US GOF H7N9 HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and is what in fact killed 7 million people, 1.2 being Americans. Operation Warpspeed was a cover for fast-tracking Moderna's H7N9 mRNA vaccine through phase 2 and 3 human trials (it completed phase 1 in 2018). COVID was released in Wuhan to seed the narrative that China lost control of GOF Coronavirus research, thereby shifting blame for the inevitable global health crisis away from the United States before the vaccine could get approved under EUA. \--- H7N9 first appeared in China during March 2013 and began ravaging their poultry industry. [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8327827/](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8327827/) [https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/2a455d95-ed8c-47cf-ad95-94260a097ddd/content](https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/2a455d95-ed8c-47cf-ad95-94260a097ddd/content) [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4019135/](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4019135/) China was quick to blame the United States [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/04/09/chinese-army-colonel-says-avian-flu-is-an-american-plot-against-china/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/04/09/chinese-army-colonel-says-avian-flu-is-an-american-plot-against-china/) [https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-CJB-17527](https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-CJB-17527) From 2013 through early 2019 it would come and go, mutating & jumping between species and on occasion briefly becoming transmissible human-to-human. In all there were 5 waves during this period of time. The first 4 were low pathogenic while the 5th in 2017 was highly pathogenic. [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8190734/](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8190734/) [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc1505359](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc1505359) The sixth wave came in the first week of December 2019 within Hubei district (Wuhan). A sudden 2059% year-over-year increase in Influenza cases which (at least in part) were not COVID. [https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuhan-china-covid-intl/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuhan-china-covid-intl/index.html) >The documents also reveal a previously undisclosed a 20-fold spike in influenza cases recorded in one week in early December in Hubei province. >The spike, which occurred in the week beginning December 2, saw cases rise by approximately 2,059% compared to the same week the year before, according to the internal data. ... >The Wuhan CDC later conducted retrospective research into influenza cases dated as early as October 2019 in two Wuhan hospitals, in an attempt to look for traces of coronavirus. But, according to a study published in the journal Nature, they were unable to detect samples of the virus dating back earlier than January 2020. Similar studies have yet to be carried out in other Hubei cities. Remember those videos on social media in December 2019 - January 2020 of people dropping like flies in the streets within China? Police boarding up buildings & concrete berms / dirt piles on highways? Those were not fake, that was H7N9 and its the real fucking deal. 40%\~ case fatality rate and it does not need trypsin, meaning it can infect any cell, organ, system (skin, respiratory, circulatory, nervous, etc.), and it can bypass the blood-brain-barrier. [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8411188/](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8411188/) Whenever you see a COVID amputee... that's H7N9. [https://www.umms.org/ummc/pros/physician-briefs/heart-vascular/limb-preservation/covid-19-impact-on-limb-loss-and-techniques-to-improve-outcomes](https://www.umms.org/ummc/pros/physician-briefs/heart-vascular/limb-preservation/covid-19-impact-on-limb-loss-and-techniques-to-improve-outcomes)
I know I'm a few days late to the main day of discussion, but fantastic post! I've been doing a bit of a deep dive into this industry myself considering how much consumer commodity pricing has been in flux the past couple years, especially in the case of eggs. I'm really fascinated by the 1-2 year outlook for this industry as I can conceive of both a potential bear and bull case for stocks in the egg and greater poultry sector. Bear: One or more of the following occurs (all highly speculative on future politics). \-The incoming administration follows through with its tarrif pledge and also institutes the discussed 25% on on Canada and Mexico, who place reciprocate. [Mexico consumers almost 80% of our turkey exports and nearly 50% of chicken exports.](https://www.uspoultry.org/economic-data/) With a reduced foreign market, sales slump, depressing share price. \- The mass deportation pledge happens. While numbers vary between sources in terms of how much undocumented labor works in the egg and poultry industry, assuming a [more conservative low of 9-10%](https://investigatemidwest.org/2024/11/20/graphic-heres-why-mass-deportation-could-affect-the-nations-food-supply/), to a potentially higher amount of [40-50%](https://www.ncfh.org/poultry-workers-fact-sheet.html) depending on industry and data points, a mass contraction in labor without an ability to fill that will constrain supply of eggs and other poultry products, potentially further eating into profits, especially if the industries have to increase wages enough to entice American workers (and make the upgrades to facilities to make it so such workers will want to work there). \- The most speculative one. Assuming RFK is nominated and the administration allows him to pursue his [Make America Healthy Agenda](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze391y17z7o), the big poultry and eggs producers, with their factory farming methods might be targeted as well considering poultry production is overseen by the FDA, such a move could possibly shake up the industry as well. \- To your excellent point already, HPAI is the biggest wildcard for the industry, assuming no major human infections, the disease is still capable of wiping out whole farms and stock for companies. Bull: \- As the past couple years have demonstrated, despite reduced egg supply, companies have been making good money. [Looking at some Cal-Maine trends the past couple years, even during periods on instability, the company still maintain solid financials.](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/CALM/financials/annual/cash-flow) Apart from smaller companies like VITL, most other food groups are likewise in a similar position to weather potential disruptions. \- Constrained and reduced supply might allow companies in the short term to make more money as even though their export base might shrink, their domestic market may be allowed to be charged more. \- The deportation plan is curtailed or constrained, so the agricultural sector isn't as impacted, this allows supply to remain at higher levels. \- The tariffs don't happen, preserving the Mexico export market.
Mpox is touch, HPAI is close contact with infected birds.
The process of removing hens from the flock is known as "depopulation". It happens when the end of their productive laying period is reached, but also in the case of HPAI. Although there are not a lot of details, in theory, it is either through euthanasia or processed for secondary products (soup, pet food, animal byproducts).