MLTX
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics
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MLTX MoonLake Immunotherapeutics stock
I'm back...MLTX. Massive short squeeze or gap fill potential
MLTX is up over 10% today. But this run up is just getting started... YOLO. DD. GAINS.
Is MLTX a good opportunity after significant dip?
Highest short interest in the market and a couple that have low floats and high cost to borrows. Ortex data oct 17th
Your biggest paper-handed trade?
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Managing a short on a de risked biotech like MLTX is playing with fire. That FDA alignment changed the math your cost basis is looking a bit thin now.
After taking hours going over penny stocks tm. My Top 3 picks? CALC, BLNK, ANEB Highest reward to risk=MLTX CALC BLNK ANEB MLTX AGRZ TRNR VEEE
Go all into MLTX, I’m not kidding you. Thank me later…..
Investor day is Monday, Feb 23. The present first thing in the morning. We have data due from the S-OLARIS trial. 52 week data from the VELA trials in the next month. The VELA-Teen Data cut for the BLA. 3 events in the next month! The 13F holding disclosures from the big bio funds were due this week. We saw Bihua Chen double her stake, Deep Track Capital load up in Q4. And the GOAT Mark Lampert of BVF holding with almost 20M shares. These guys are the smartest on the street, and they are ACCUMULATING. We just got FDA Fast Track for PPP indication. Analysts got MoonLake wrong. They are going to have to massively increase price targets. I would be surprised if we are not triple digits next year. Analysts are still discounting probability of SLK approval, when the 52 week data drops data interim data (40 week) indicates SLK beating out everything else. I can’t see an environment that the FDA doesn’t approve SLK. MLTX is currently trading as a 1 billion dollar company, and the opportunity to win market share across a range of chronic inflammatory diseases supports it being a MUCH larger market cap. The Total addressable market is in the 10s of Billions for SLK. We have overwhelming safety and efficacy numbers, and this was already discussed with the FDA at the Type B meeting in December. A meeting that was positive and MoonLake confirmed they were moving forward with an SLK BLA afterward, as expected. This year is stacked with catalysts. MoonLake is taking off, this is last chance to get on the rocket. https://preview.redd.it/1gml0irvufkg1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d42675b0ad8c50d38dcbeb4d64ace227c646611a
$MLTX $18 Down because trumps secretary of Health has been messing with pharmaceuticals and saying they might not get approved. This dropped from $70 to $11 in the news that they might need extra studies to gain approval for their medicines. It’s now crawling back up because Kennedy is backtracking on their drug saying they really don’t need extra studies to get approval. So in 3 months they’re going to apply for approval… as they’ll most likely gain approval this will be a$60 equity with 3 months. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/mltx-stock-extends-rally-as-fda-feedback-spurs-bullish-brokerage-action-retail-speculates-on-potential-m-a-conversations/ar-AA1TTOlT?apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1
Any big catalysts before Friday? I can't find the JPM conference on the MLTX website anymore
MLTX to go parabolic till Friday
MLTX Calls expiring this week
status of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics ($MLTX) is as follows: Investment Profile & Bull Thesis Bull Thesis: The primary catalyst is the FDA's recent feedback (January 8, 2026) that no additional clinical trials are required to support a Biologic License Application (BLA) for their lead candidate, sonelokimab (SLK), in treating hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). Commercial Potential: This accelerates the timeline for market entry, with a BLA submission now planned for the second half of 2026. Market Opportunity: The HS treatment market is estimated to reach $15 billion by 2035. Market Cap: Classified as a Small-Cap stock (not a microcap). Its market capitalization is approximately $1.32 billion as of January 9, 2026. Short Interest & Trading Data Short Interest Percentage: Approximately 8.66% to 13.73% of the public float. Average Daily Volume: Trading volume is currently well above normal. On January 9, 2026, volume reached 14.67 million shares, which is more than 520% of its 3-month average volume of approximately 2.81 million shares. Days to Cover: Estimated at 2.43 to 2.5 days based on standard average volumes, though this drops significantly under the current surge in volume. Public Float: There are roughly 56.5 million shares in the public float available to trade. Exit Strategy & Price Targets Price Targets: Analysts have recently upgraded targets following the FDA news: BTIG (Jan 9, 2026): Upgraded to "Buy" with a $24.00 target. H.C. Wainwright (Jan 10, 2026): Maintained "Buy" and raised the target to $32.00 Technical Exit Levels: Technical resistance is identified at $19.01 and $21.90. A breakthrough above $21.90 could signal a move toward the $24.00 analyst target. Estimated Timeline: The stock has gained 65% since early January 2026. Momentum indicators suggest the $24.00 target could be reached in the short-to-medium term (H1 2026) if current bullish momentum persists. A critical date for reassessment is the next estimated earnings report around February 26, 2026. Short Squeeze Potential Is it a good play? It is a moderate candidate. Bullish Factors: The sudden 28%+ price spike and massive volume increase on January 9 are classic "squeeze" triggers that force shorts to cover. Limiting Factors: While the short interest is notable (~13% of float), it is not at the "extreme" levels (typically >20%) usually associated with a massive, multi-day short squeeze. However, the rapidly rising borrow rates (reaching 9.37% in early January) add significant pressure to short sellers.
Holy shit thank you to that one DD on MLTX
Yo check this out: To understand the "Gamma Flip" or potential squeeze acceleration points for tomorrow, we look at where Market Makers (MMs) are most exposed. When a stock hits a high-gamma strike price, MMs must hedge by buying the underlying stock, which adds "jet fuel" to a short squeeze. Here is the deep dive into the options chains for Tuesday, December 30, 2025. 1. B. Riley Financial ($RILY) Current Price Estimate: ~$4.45 Max Pain (Jan 2 Exp): $4.50 Gamma Acceleration Point: $5.00 Analysis: There is a significant wall of Call Open Interest at the $5.00 strike. If $RILY crosses $4.75 tomorrow morning, Market Makers will be forced to buy shares rapidly to hedge their $5.00 call exposure. Squeeze Trigger: A break above $5.10 could cause a "Gamma Cascade" toward $6.00, as the $5.00 shorts are forced to cover simultaneously with MM hedging. 2. MoonLake Immunotherapeutics ($MLTX) Current Price Estimate: ~$13.80 Max Pain (Jan 16 Exp): $10.00 Gamma Acceleration Point: $15.00 Analysis: The $15 strike has over 4,950 contracts in Open Interest. This is the "pivot" point. Because the current price is close to this strike, the "Gamma" (sensitivity) is at its peak. Squeeze Trigger: If the price hits $14.25, the delta of those $15 calls increases sharply. MMs will have to buy the stock to stay delta-neutral. This creates a feedback loop. 3. OppFi Inc. ($OPFI) Current Price Estimate: ~$11.13 Cost to Borrow: >220% Gamma Acceleration Point: $12.50 Analysis: $OPFI is a "thin" options chain compared to $RILY. However, the high borrowing cost means that the "Put" side is likely crowded with hedged shorts. Squeeze Trigger: If $OPFI clears $12.00, there is almost no resistance until $15.00. Because the borrow fee is so high, shorts will not wait for a pull-back; they will panic-buy at the market price to stop the "interest bleed." Monitoring Details for Tomorrow Morning: $RILY (B. Riley Financial) * The Situation: It is currently trading at $4.92, very close to the critical $5.00 gamma wall. What to watch: If it opens above $5.00 and stays there for 15 minutes, market makers will likely start an aggressive "delta hedge" (buying shares), which could propel the stock toward $6.00 before noon. $MLTX (MoonLake) * The Situation: It has drifted slightly lower in pre-market to $13.60. What to watch: This is a "spring-loaded" play. If it reclaims the $13.85 level (previous close) and heads toward $14.20, the short interest (55%) will begin to feel the heat. Low volume on the dip followed by high volume on the rise is the classic signal here. $OPFI (OppFi) * The Situation: Borrow fees remain at astronomical levels (>220%). What to watch: Every hour a short seller holds this stock, they are losing a significant percentage of their position to interest. Look for a "breakout" past $12.00. Once $12.00 is breached, the "panic cover" usually begins because there is no significant resistance until $15.00.
Where did you get that this is the biotech standard? From further reading MLTX has released a pr announcement before minutes from the FDA, and on multiple different occasions.
Generally the biotech standard is waiting until the minutes arrive, and release a PR. This is a complicated situation though, they specifically announce the meeting date and created a catalyst date. The problem with a bullish PR right after the meeting is, there is no legally binding proof about the verbal discussion. So if something different shows up in the minutes, MLTX might be sued again. I also have some December 19 options, but don’t really expect an explicit PR right after the meeting. It’s kind of a gamble at this point. I think they’ll get a green light for BLA, but they might not release it until January, or use vague PR after the meeting. If you check their Q3, they specifically say minutes will arrive in 30 days after the meeting. They already pointed out that.
How do you explain this? MLTX's Chief Scientific Officer just sold every single share ahead of this meeting with the FDA. This screenshot is pulled from Quiver Quant, a website that tracks insider trading. https://preview.redd.it/cm9dvfnm5g6g1.png?width=1913&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d4927b7b69f42823141930df46f3552705756c0
Thanks for your detailed response, I’m definitely learning a lot here. I’m looking at the 19 Dec 2025 17.5 options. Do you think the stock can jump to 18+ by then even though no official minutes will be released? Will there be a press release from MLTX or something?
POET Tech is optical interposers, this is so much more efficient than the current tech, and I'm going to say it - this technology literally moves at the speed of light. I had other orders out that didn't get filled I should have probably had a higher allocation here. This is going to be an incredible opportunity in the future. I'm not saying POET is MLTX. I'm have no plans on writing a report about POET, that is just a recent example, that came to mind of an investment that as mispriced. I DO have other companies I already have reports written on and sitting on my desktop, I have a few more that I already know I will write when I get the opportunity. For now, I'm using this as a distraction. While there is chaos around me you guys are giving me something I can focus on, and for me MLTX has become intertwined with my life story here. I'm thankful for that. I think I got those orders last couple orders in premarket of after hours, I'm not sure. The majority of my time during market hours are normally spent with my kids. I already liked the optical interposer technology when the news broke, but stock reaction was slow. It wasn't in the headlines, the headlines only discussed Marvell and Celestial AI. Don't rely on the headlines, do a little more digging. That goes for the MLTX trial fail headlines and shareholder lawsuit headlines as well. Read and evaluate. Use independent judgement. Do your due diligence. I haven't had quite the time I wanted in years to focus on and research and analysis. I started to make it a priority earlier this year. Or as much as I could while still taking care of the kids and managing a real estate business with over 100MM in sales over the last 5 or so years, which is to say up until now I haven't had a lot of time to direct into my personal interests. That has all changed. I'm not involved that business anymore beyond closing out some year end financials. I'm looking at only half the time with my kids, and my youngest will be in kindergarten soon. For some 2026, will just be a new year, for me 2026 will be a fundamentally new life. After next week, I'll probably be able to stop talking about MLTX for a while. I think we realistically have less than a week before the we hear about the outcome of the discussions in the FDA Type B meeting. If or when the company issues a press release, that window closes. Other than that, I'll wait for the minutes if I have to, but I don't expect this to be the case. You all know my situation. I'm going to have a lot more time now. The more I dig, the more opportunity I see everywhere. But we have to actually look, we have to spend the time and put the work in. Back to POET though. Data centers. AI. Quantum. The opportunity out there is huge. Look at the Marvell Celestial AI acquisition. When I heard that merger story drop it was a no brainer to buy more POET. I like investments I don't even need to think about. But, yes, I did my due diligence. All investments are not the same though with AI, at some point, we actually do have to start to think about the present value of discounted cash flows. I'm not going to go out and die on this hill, but there are some very large AI companies out there... I'm thinking of one in particular that has massive, spending, and very little revenues to show for it, negative profits. All while their first mover advantage is rapidly falling apart, market is share being eroded by other larger players in the space and at the same time model performance is being outshined by competitors. At some point we eventually need cashflows here. Valuations do matter. Maybe I was a little too critical of DCF in my prior comment. My apologies CFA Institute, my apologies. This is therapeutic. To circle back to your original question if MLTX gets close to what I see as fair value, (nowhere near the current market price) at some point I'm probably going to redirect a portion of the capital into other investments. But, I'm comfortable here. This isn't a trade, I trust the management team, I like the platform, the wide range of CID indications SLK can potentially address. At the core this is a long term investment. Thanks for the question disasterly213. I will say I'm probably not using WSB or reddit the right way. Or maybe I am... These comments are freely available, but essentially hidden, buried. These ideas available to anyone, but only seen by those who are looking. Maybe that is how it should be. That goes back to the thesis; do the due diligence. Put in the work and I think you'll be rewarded for that time. But on another note: if you find research or comments have value a little upvote every once in a while probably wouldn't hurt. That goes for the original post as well.
I think this is a core holding for a bit here. Next year is just stacked with catalysts. Before I sell I need to see it be somewhere near fair value... what's fair though? 3X- This is around $45. That's still only 3 billion market cap, they already rejected an offer there - it was higher before the data drop, and I expect that next week they have a path to approval, It would need to be higher... 5X- Maybe I start looking at discounting back the present values of future cashflows... seriously though, I'm retired. I don't do that and you guys are going to glaze over so quick if I even start talking about the present value of DCF. It's so much easier than that. If you need calculate DCFs to figure out if a stock is worth putting new money on, it's probably not. (Sorry CFA Institute) I don't want to buy companies that are 15%, or 20% undervalued based on estimated future cashflows. I'm here to give you my best ideas on companies that are so undervalued we don't NEED to do math here. I'm not close to selling, I'm not calculating anything. MLTX can 10X long term, that is only 10 billion market cap guys. I trust they can do it, give them a couple years, and check back. I'm going to go to bed and I will sleep well knowing MLTX management is over there working hard to make us all rich. Realistically, though, I'd have to trim at some point and this is also dependent on other opportunities that are going to come up. Like POET Tech: https://preview.redd.it/2y3lc13cpa6g1.png?width=1962&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cdd30d355f14f41d8846187f7ad41cd76662c6f But POET Tech isn't my story. MLTX is. I'm holding, wake me up when they are 5X and I'll pay someone to do math. Just not that analyst from Citi with a $5 price target... Someone pull that report and DM me with it, it should be good for a laugh or two.
Is anyone looking into $MLTX after that post that one person did, I’d love to get a hit on a biotech squeeze
Look what happened to Martin shkreli’s professional DD on $CAPR, no one really knows shit lol. I’m doing lotto puts on MLTX for the gambol. 100 cons $10p
They have a drug that looks to be effective against a wide spectrum of chronic inflammatory diseases. It fell from 60 because the headlines say the drug failed and is not effective. Data shows efficacy and I expect the FDA will give them a pathway to SLK approval next week. MLTX isn’t selling out they have the cash to commercialization, SLK is going to be a CID blockbuster. HS and PPP are just the start, management is going to roll down the line and get this approved for a wide variety of indications.
When the results come out we normally look at the primary endpoint, which for the VELA trials was the week 16 HiSCR75 data. That was singular datapoint that the VELA-2 arm narrowly missed on, and they failed the endpoint because of the high placebo response. We were basically looking at how SLK response differed from baseline response(placebo). I'll add the chart below. You can see in the VELA-2 arm the placebo response is elevated, much higher than we would normally expect. All the data around week 16 is very strong, the combined data is strong. HS is inherently noisy. The tape traded on the headlines, causing MLTX to decline, a primary endpoint miss is not something we should normally overlook, but on this one we have all the data around it and the combined data from the VELA trials that show that SLK is effective. Look at the overall response rate. In theory if you hold an asset that is a large enough portion of your portfolio and it declines enough—it could force selling, and a significant move like 90% could certainly do that. For the record though I don't know why Bihua Chen sold though, or what her portfolio looked like that day. I think the worst case I expect here is FDA asks for additional data as part of a BLA for HS, and eventually we get delayed approval, but to me that isn't even bad, that is a pathway to approval. That is what I'm focusing on—SLKs pathway to approval across multiple indications. I'll wait on HS if needed, MLTX has the cash runway. But even if SLK for HS never gets approved (a scenario which isn't my base case)—SLK is still a platform that looks to have efficacy across a range of chronic inflammatory diseases, indications that MLTX management is already positioning SLK for in the pipeline. Next year is stacked with catalysts across these other indications. Moreover, we know from these various readouts that we see SLK continues to be safe and well tolerated, that helps de-risk the platform for me. It would have reduced uncertainly to have clear success on the primary endpoint, but if they didn't narrowly miss we would have never got the opportunity to buy MLTX shares at this discount. Does that make sense? The data is what matters, not what anyone else is trading. The FDA isn't going to be looking at Bihua Chen's trading tickets, they are going to be looking at the data package. I hope that helps answer your question. https://preview.redd.it/3kbdzyhfqa5g1.png?width=2786&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b3bfb44c906261ded6b4507be0c8e6f7dbeebb1
Nice! You got a better price than I did, I was already following MLTX and I saw the drop but didn’t get a chance to take a look at the research until a couple weeks later.
So I don’t really like price targets - I’m expecting MLTX to be 3X, 4X, or 5X or more what is currently trading for next year though. They had a buyout offer over 3 Billion for Merck last summer that they declined. Even with the run up today we are still only talking about a stock with a Billion dollar market cap. I don’t need to use price targets when I’m expecting a complete stock price rerating - If that makes sense.
https://preview.redd.it/4lc73q3sy85g1.png?width=1830&format=png&auto=webp&s=69c0eab06cf0a4660be100b5675e5a15215d6f45 The options I have are very small in relation to my stock position. I have them as an inexpensive way to gain additional exposure here. The December options expire after the FDA meeting, which is important. But it should also be noted MoonLake has been forthcoming with additional data at conferences. For example at the [SHSA Conference, Nashville, Tennessee](https://ir.moonlaketx.com/events/event-details/shsa-conference-nashville-tennessee) they updated additional data on HS after the original Sept data drop that cause the stock to collapse 90%. You can see the continued efficacy of SLK in the deck, I'd post it here, but it looks like I'm limited to one image as a comment. MoonLake will also be at the [HS Academy, Charlotte, North Carolina](https://ir.moonlaketx.com/events/event-details/hs-academy-charlotte-north-carolina) Event starting tomorrow running Dec 5 - Dec 7. If I didn't already have stock much stock exposure I probably would have move further out time wise on the calls, MLTX has a lot of things to look forward to next year.
Wild biotech hype post. Saying MLTX is just getting started after a 10% pop is classic WSB energy, but this is still a tiny, volatile pharma name riding trial headlines. Cool if you’re gambling, but definitely not something to YOLO your savings into.
Now take those earnings and throw them into $MLTX https://preview.redd.it/6ne3l3zcvf2g1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed07c807df08001ba6759ae7de3736e6577f5882 I can’t believe how many people are missing out on it!
https://preview.redd.it/tkyz9799g9yf1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e6e34c6ae685f8e687aa5d2a26ea5bc0a9c049a We can still make money MLTX 🔥
MLTX rising like a phoenix in this sea of red.
$MLTX calls I have insider info trust me
I was on the MLTX train as soon as the news of their trial was disappointing.. up $4 (over 60%) since then 🔥🔥
MLTX dropped 90% last week on a high placebo rate early readout. up 37% on the week since with volume still significantly above average and some large call activity for the middle of the month. Looks very interesting on the continuation
MLTX ramping up. It literally has moon in its name.
check MLTX for one with failed trial
Thanks, I invested in better things since then. FBIO, and now more recently MLTX when it crashed and has been slowly climbing up. But I'm happy for you guys who stuck here and it paid off! I never wish ill of others and their investments. But sometimes you should sell sooner rather than later, like the people who kept holding ORBS even when it was as high as 75, stabilized at 45 for a few days, but is now currently 8.
SRPT big data release in a week. It’s got an FDS suspension for s gene therapy drug bc the guy Trump hired is an effing retard. It could recover $20. INTC always a safe bet because they keep sweeping call options. I got some MLTX for a squeeze.
What? Yes they are, most ER analysts have a PhD and the reports can be very scientifically dense and they attend conferences all the time. That being said yes they inflate their price targets cause they want access to companies but also because most of biotech (early stage) is priced at all or nothing. Take MLTX phase 1 looked solid, unless you had deep knowledge about HS clinical trial design or the trickiness which is the IL-17 pathway how else could you have predicted P2 failure. Places like scorpion have to be very sneaky and careful about data collection, some reports are better than others, but biotech hates hates them.
I'm getting tired of seeing the same mentions over and over again, so here's what I have lined up for today. Bought CAN, RELI, and KDK yesterday. I'm expecting CAN and KDK to get some traction tomorrow. RELI as a wildcard if they release any new crypto news. Still holding small positions in RVYL, MLTX, and SHOT.
I bought 1500 shares of MLTX at $6.03, it ran to $7.48 today. I was pretty happy with that 12 hour profit of almost $2200. I bought it when it was - 90% on the day. I find that I have a much higher winning % buying stocks that are already crushed vs stocks that are already up 100% or more.
I am done playing for the day, see y'all tomorrow literally the only okay plays were MLTX, BURU for 5 seconds and BENF. We shall see if/how long there is a shutdown for.
Hope some of you picked up MLTX l
MLTX recovering after being oversold.. up 20% today 🔥
MLTX still a shit ton of upside.
MLTX making a rebound
What’s the history of Biotech stocks that drop like 90% in a day like MLTX? Are they just done for?
MLTX. Down 89% after hours. Over done.
**MLTX**Fun to watch Look at the options mkt
Picked up some $MLTX January 2027 $30 calls
Where do you think MLTX bottoms out at?
Not a penny, but check out **MLTX** -90% Oct 23 - Oct 26 2025 Fall Clinical Dermatology Conference, Las Vegas, Nevada Oct 24 - Oct 29 2025 ACR Convergence, Chicago, Illinois Dead cat bounce or bags
MLTX 90% dropped. Dead cat bounce?
My butt is puckering over MLTX. Down 10% but damn... Imagine it bounces back.
Anyone have thoughts on MoonLake MLTX, what a freefall
[MoonLake Immunotherapeutics reports on week 16 results of the VELA Phase 3 hidradenitis suppurativa program with the Nanobody® sonelokimab](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/28/3157370/0/en/MoonLake-Immunotherapeutics-reports-on-week-16-results-of-the-VELA-Phase-3-hidradenitis-suppurativa-program-with-the-Nanobody-sonelokimab.html) \- MLTX The market *really* didn't like that press release. MLTX closed at $62 Friday, about $6.70 this morning.
Did anyone watch MLTX at open? Still seems to be selling off
MLTX…Easy…see you guys in a couple hours when I comment back on this saying you shoulda dumped into it
MLTX dead car bounce potential
$MLTX Rebound play of the CENTURY
Bought 5 shares of MLTX. Seems oversold, but if it isn't, it isn't much of a loss to me
MLTX bounce opportunity.
Something like $MLTX comes around once a year. Biggest rebound play of 2025. Forgive me but 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
MLTX might be a play. Waiting until open to see what happens
$MLTX unbelievable rebound play 🦍🦍🦧🦧🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Massive overreaction on $MLTX. Huge potential for a reversal
$MLTX crazy reversal incoming
$MLTX not a penny stock but considering the crazy 85% drop this is the one to watch today
Hello **MLTX bulls**, the **ATYR community** welcomes you 🤗
If you want to see something truly bonkers, take a look at the chart for MLTX. Damn near heading towards pennystock status overnight due to awful clinical trial data.