JPM

Successful-Mud-2000

Big deal that its in there at all, first time in 31 editions. But I think the most interesting part of the table is the gap between the two return columns 20.9% arithmetic vs 10% compound. That difference is volatility drag. With 55% swings a year, the average of the yearly returns looks amazing but what you actually keep over 10 years is the 10%. And only if you dont sell during a 70% drawdown So yes its the top number, but per unit of risk US large caps look better: 7.5% with 18% vol vs 10% with 55%. JPM also left bitcoin out of their main portfolio models because of that volatility and the unstable correlations The bullish counterpoint is that Hougan from Bitwise thinks 55% vol is too high since its been falling for years. If vol keeps coming down, the compound number goes up a lot even with the same average return For me the takeaway is not "best asset of the decade" but that even a very conservative bank now treats it as a real asset class. Thats the bigger signal

Sudden_Onions

They also said it's too volatile to be recommended as part of an investment portfolio. Here's what I don't understand about their analysis. They seem to be suggesting that BTC will become a more attractive safe harbour due to global uncertainty elsewhere. I haven't looked into the nuts and bolts of that, but I'd hazard a guess that they're predicting trouble in the stock market if/when the AI bubble bursts and we realise we don't the equivalent of Google, Ask Jeeves and Yahoo for AI. On top of that governments are trying to cut their debt levels which is making bonds less attractive. If you can't put your money in bonds or stocks, where do you put it? BTC ought to be one of the answers to that question. So, if JPM are correct, why isnt the price steadily rising already? Is this just too long term for the market? Is there money to be made on other investments before making that switch?

MajesticAd5135

Oh god if JPM is shilling it might truly be over

manuel_clark_1367

If the linked piece doesn't support it, the 10% figure is the article's claim until someone finds a JPM source. A market forecast and the bank's published view aren't interchangeable.

Iamusweare

Guys - cryptology is cooked. JPM needs time to offload.

sandee_eggo

The "article" says nothing about WHY JPM thinks BTC will appreciate 10%.

sandee_eggo

And if JPM was so wrong about BTC before, why should people trust them now? That's a bad track record.

b1mm3rl1f3

Bearish on crypto but formally modelled BTC outperforming traditional asset classes over the next decade. Even the 10% CAGR is too bearish but the fact that its coming from JPM is insane

Tilpatinhas

maybe JPM use the source to define the number

ErasmitoWathelet

JPM catching up to what we all have been saying for over a decade now. Good job JPM

Richer18

It's because JP Morgan is the largest wire transfer company in the world by a considerable amount. He has to protect that business. Imagine if everyone started using crypto to instantly transfer funds instead of using wires that can take up to several days at times. I guarantee you he is saying one thing in public and doing the opposite behind the scenes at JPM.

PeteyPab305

The screenshot clearly shows Binance flagged the deposit under their compliance policy for originating from a source tied to a Restricted Person. That is standard anti-money laundering and OFAC sanctions protocol. Any traditional retail bank or wire service will freeze incoming funds and lock an account under the exact same legal requirements if money touches an address or entity on a sanctions list. Saying this proves crypto will never see mainstream adoption fundamentally misunderstands custodial risk. When you leave coins on a centralized platform, you hand over custody and take on the exact same regulatory choke points as legacy finance. Institutional players are already integrating settlement rails on public chains, whether it is Visa running stablecoin pilots, PayPal pushing PYUSD, or JPMorgan utilizing JPM Coin. An offshore exchange locking a flagged deposit does not mean crypto is dead, it just shows what happens when you treat a centralized exchange balance like self-custody.

goat247365

Used to do this all the time when I worked at Citi briefly after being orange pilled while climbing corporate ladder at JPM.

Onemoretimego1

The most honest part of the article is near the end where he admits order book depth is still the real bottleneck. Doing $100M a day in USDT/PHP is impressive, and 24/7 weekend settlement is a huge edge over correspondent banks. Still, until crypto rails can absorb $5M to $10M institutional clips in emerging market pairs without massive slippage, tier-one banks like Citi and JPM aren't losing their FX monopoly anytime soon.

Backrus

Nobody serious will use public blockchain for anything because their complaints department won't let them. Do you think JPM will show their books and all trades? There's a reason why most of those lean into either private in-house solutions or Canton.

TheRadishBros

Imo the only adoption that matters is when JPM etc automatically allocate 1-3% of all their client portfolios to BTC ETFs. Once that happens we’ll reach hyperbitcoinisation and tens of millions of dollars per coin over the following years.

princemousey1

“Banks such as JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: $JPM) have lobbied against allowing stablecoins to provide yield, arguing that it will compete with and hurt their retail banking businesses.” Basically, yeah.

LimaSierraRomeo

Having a trading desk at JPM while simultaneously day trading his own account would be a huge compliance issue, so it is almost certainly not true. But let’s assume it is true, then he would need to log all his trades with JPM. Do you not think someone at JPM would notice that this guy is some kind of trading genius and give him a mandate to manage clients‘ money? In fact, why does the guy not ask JPM himself, since he already has a shoe in the door and the proof on top? I am not yapping on here because I am actually interested in this person or his story, I am trying to help you realize that it’s all bullshit.

Jeff1383

He started that subreddit to help people. He doesn't sell courses or anything else. Look at this 10 steps to become a professional trader w/o losing a ton of money. Also, I never said it was every year, I believe it's the last two years. He also has a desk at JPM. You can just yap on here or you could actually do some research yourself on it.

cryptolipto

Why don’t you ask the DTCC why they think the tech is good and why theyre building a blockchain https://www.dtcc.com/dtcc-connection/articles/2026/may/15/the-dtcc-collateral-appchain-from-experiment-to-production-infrastructure Why don’t you ask Swift why they’re building a blockchain https://www.swift.com/news-events/press-releases/swifts-blockchain-ledger-ready-use-17-banks-set-pioneer-tokenised-cross-border-payments-trusted-global-infrastructure JPM Morgan https://www.jpmorgan.com/kinexys/index Robinhood https://docs.robinhood.com/chain/ What about stablecoins? https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/FIDD-stablecoin So while you may not see anything interesting about the tech, world leading financial firms absolutely do. So maybe they see something you don’t

cryptolipto

Why don’t you ask the DTCC why they think the tech is good and why theyre building a blockchain https://www.dtcc.com/dtcc-connection/articles/2026/may/15/the-dtcc-collateral-appchain-from-experiment-to-production-infrastructure Why don’t you ask Swift why they’re building a blockchain https://www.swift.com/news-events/press-releases/swifts-blockchain-ledger-ready-use-17-banks-set-pioneer-tokenised-cross-border-payments-trusted-global-infrastructure JPM Morgan https://www.jpmorgan.com/kinexys/index Robinhood https://docs.robinhood.com/chain/ What about stablecoins? https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/FIDD-stablecoin So while you may not see anything interesting about the tech, world leading financial firms absolutely do. So maybe they see something you don’t

Illustrious-Option-9

Past is not a sure indicator of future performance. 17 years go BTC was a nerd's toy. Then it continued to grow in popularity as more and more people were drawn into the idea of 'decentralised banking', 'be your own bank', 'fuck JPM'. Then this idea started to disappoint as more and more exchanges introduced KYC. Then crypto bros found another carrot - 'store of value'. This still holds to certain extend, but it's getting eroded year by year as people realize in order for the 'value' to be kept, more fools need to continue buying (and hold) bitcoin. This works, until it no longer works.

GCM1313

100%. But if Fidelity goes bankrupt there are bigger issues to worry about and we're probably not on Reddit talking about them. I bet there are hundred's of JPM Chase accountholders out there with nine and ten figure balances that sleep well without considering individual account FDIC insurance limits for the same reason.