BTC

brdoc

Would you guys DCA weekly, or considering BTC might be about to pump buy a more significant amount sooner then lighter DCAs later?

narwhalicus

Same, I know this might be seen as foolish but I've been nervous about quantum computing tech because I've never really found a reliable debunking of how it could break SHA256 / the cryptographic element of the network. Also I've quite FUDded about how trustless banking may just not be adopted well enough to really make BTC a long term investment that actually makes good money or stores value. I've read the whitepaper so I get the tech and I love it, but I'm just a bit blackpilled. I wonder what other people's opinions are though.

JimmySki6166

If you’re purchasing BTC from an exchange, check and see what they insure it up to. Once you get the that level, you may want to get a cold wallet a move the BTC to that for protection. I purchase BTC weekly, and move to my cold wallet once a month. Slow n steady wins the race!!

TheHonestContrarian

BTC needs to go up $8500 for you to make $1 fwiw

Docthndr

Have my miners running full scrypt and converting to PEP. Any doubts have long gone. With great respect in the bigger communities for POW, showing up at the BTC and litecoin summits. While I understand that normal hurdles still exist, the leadership does listen to the community and continues to build our network by creating new opportunities. If your old school DOGE ‘14 - this is nostalgia calling.

simonmales

I get paid in BTC and sell it P2P for cash. P2P is not just about buying and selling, it's about building a network of real life bitcoiners. It doesn't have legs everywhere, but vexl.it is great at this.

LongDaysPleasntNites

Not sure if this is a serious post because if you are educated enough on BTC you wouldn’t even ask this question.

CompetitionDouble420

1. BTC is not a company OR a stock. 2. BTC is not a token, it's a set of immutable data that, ideally, only you control.

theincognito66

and they are crying about maybe being down $20 in one day. I'm sorry their 0.001 BTC bought on Monday hasn't made them able to retire today

partyboycs

It doesn’t need that much money to flow into BTC for the market cap to be valued at that just saying. 1 billion can move the market cap 5 bil for example

Wasabi_Hammurabi1

What type of action would one take if they used their own mind? What difference would it make if didn't follow anyone's advice and thought everyone was out to get me, made my own decisions and later realized if I did follow that person's advice that I would have been worse off. I have made money and lost money following other people's advice. So go on, tell me. A lot of people have their own generalizations about BTC. How are you any different if you are going to keep telling me I have to use my own mind when I have before and also gained and lost. How is your advice any different? You need to get into specifics if you expect me ir anyone else hold anything you have said to any measure of validity. Stop saying the same, sounds good on paper BS, and actually say something useful.

Driftmier54

Are we joking? Do you really think this is a downtrend? The BTC sphere has some of the biggest retards Ive encountered in trading, like OP

ds3101

If you’re interested in altcoins at all, there’s still plenty that haven’t broken out yet. I think we’ll get a proper alt rally this cycle - ETH.D near range lows, BTC.D near highs. If you’re a BTC only guy, the breakout usually retests the range highs from the bottom and that would be (historically) the time to scoop a little. Each cycle is different though

AutoModerator

Post is by: drykilo and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ww0pod/i_generated_hundreds_of_crypto_trading_strategies/ I built a validation pipeline that runs strategies through 7 stages on real Binance data: Stage 1: code safety scan, in-sample, out-of-sample, walk-forward, randomized starts, slippage stress and Stage 7: final holdout slice nothing else touches. 6 months of 5 minute candles per run on BTC/ETH/SOL domains (ran on my weak laptop so going past 6 months would take a few extra days, I'll do a VM run next with more data). Then I made a generator with several ideas and let it auto create and run the gauntlet on them (In retrospect might have been inefficient. I should have fed previously passed strategies back in to guide generation but I was a bit paranoid about correlation and spawning 416 clones). It took me a few days to run and the repo is almost everything that came out: 406 rejects plus 10 survivors, each with a report card showing in-sample and OOS returns, Sharpe, drawdown, trade count, the exact stage it died on and why. [github.com/CacheCarti/Crypto-Strategies](http://github.com/CacheCarti/Crypto-Strategies) **The interesting stuff I found:** * The single best-looking backtest in the batch `pctb_fade_sol_v3`, **+2014bps in-sample!!! :O went -112bps** the moment it ran on unseen data. * Literal astrology meme bots I created for fun got decently high returns in backtests but obviously failed in validation. Backtests have a big element of luck because of the smaller time frame! Unreliable!! (Please do not consider the report cards showing a strategy with high PnL as a "good" strategy. I might have been luck) * Out of all the strategies, **only one showed an in-sample Sharpe above 1.5**. But it failed validation anyway. If you're searching for the perfect backtest in this dataset it basically doesn't exist. * 25 strategies were profitable out-of-sample and STILL got rejected. They couldn't survive walk-forward and injected slippage. Green OOS numbers by itself is just most probably luck until proven otherwise, but they definitely might be a good place to fork and improve on in the future! * Weirdest result: some of the 10 survivors have **negative OOS returns.** They passed because they held up under perturbation and randomized starts. * The family that dominated was kinda bizzare: `asia_drift_btc` BTC drifts during Asian session hours, **7/9 of these variants passed!** Meanwhile the families everyone actually trades went **0/9** across the board: Donchian breakouts, bollinger squeezes, RSI reversion, orderbook imbalance. Context beat TA, so is TA dead??? Lol, my generator was probably bad at writing them, someone smart could actually build a good template for TA strategies. * Every BTC scalping variant failed: 0/18. At \~7bps a side in fees, the edge you need on 5-minute bars is brutal. Anything thinner cannot survive. It might have been my own 5 minute time windows of evaluation though. The code is plain Python on a simple predict-style contract, so they can drop into most backtesters. Most of the rejects failed on robustness rather than logic, so they're actually decent starting points if you want to improve them. Happy to answer questions on the methodology. If anyone improves the strategies and gets different results I'd love to see it! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

PsychologicalBit803

Nobody knows that brother. Anyone saying they do is lying. Never invest money you must have in a short time. That’s how you get stuck selling at a loss. And yes BTC will drop again before going higher. It always does and most good analyst think we see a good pullback before this bear market ends.

TheCurlyHomeCook

Because there is absolutely no guarantee of $100k? It's such a stupid question. It's like asking now "why would someone buy BTC before it goes down to $50k?" It didn't. Yknow why? Cause we can't predict prices or world events. In moments like hitting $100k, why would you sell before reaching $125k? Sorry to use the word stupid but it baffles me how it can be a thing. Acting like there's an absolute certainty - in which case sell the car, house and anything else you own because you'll be guaranteed to be rich. But you're not. And I'm bullish. But I'm long term bullish and make decisions based on that.

These_Application531

Will BTC reach $250k definitely! When? That's the big question, 12 month may be truth may be not, but as per today is just speculation

PassionHot1887

I sure hope so. I’ll get my 10 BTC quicker than I planned.

Shr00mBaloon

I predict BTC will either go up, down or sideways.

einsdreidreisieben_

I rather mean I will pay my artist from the 3k pile every some weeks some hundreds of the 3k. if I would have invested the 3k maybe it's in some weeks 3,2k but I'm scared that right when I need the money the BTC will crash

Creative_Engineer_61

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Wizardico

El mejor plan en BTC tiene dos fases: 1. Comprar sin ver precios 2. Olvidar En 10 años me lo agradeces

Smooth-Papaya-2507

Look at the US bond market. Dipped this morning, BTC up. As it has been creeping up the last 4+ hours BTC has bled off. That's what it seems to be tied to recently.

RunItupBaby

BTC has always been bullish

CooperJay_

I sold half of my BTC to put in Solona and Lite to see if they get better returns during the next rocket

Wasabi_Hammurabi1

I don't think asking some, "Why can't you think for yourself". I used YouTube videos and read a book on BTC because I wanted to inform myself so that I could.... well, think for myself. There is a reason why you research into something before blindly buying it. In fact, thinking for myself would suggest that it would go down to 32K or 33K, not 40K. I was surprised when some of my sources were saying mid 40s and not low 30s but here we are. I honestly would rather miss out to some degree then listen to some jackass that says buy buy buy. Buy buy buy is not a feasible option dude. Some people don't want to part with their money so recklessly. I think some of you out there that think like that have made a lot of money before that 2017 20K spike and because of it you have enough leverage yourself to tell people to make decisions that are good for them based on how long they would have to sit and wait for it to be worth it. Why can't people like you see why others want to wait for a better opportunity if they think one will come? What is wrong with that? I could put 80% of what I got into BTC right now and in three days it drop to that 40K number. What then? How long until it surpasses the mid 80s? 150K? 200K? This is not a fucking joke dude. You don't know people's situation and if things get bad enough money and BTC ownership or lack there of won't be what you have to worry about. It would be riots and collapse of society. If you live in the United States would you move? Where would you go? What language would you be willing to learn or sharpen up on from your high-school language requirement.

PROBIOTIC-6

Go for BTC tattoo Worth every drop!!!

Vipin-1001

Is $1 million per BTC possible before 2030?

SatoshiBlockamoto

Me too. If you don't count my house which is mostly paid off I've got about 75% of NW in BTC. I took out loans to buy my last three cars, refinish my basement, redo the driveway, etc., rather than sell some Bitcoin and pay for them outright, so technically I'm leveraging the Bitcoin. I could have sold and paid cash for that stuff but I'm very happy I didn't. I'm thrilled to pay the bank 5-7% interest while my btc continuea to appreciate. I'll consider selling some BTC when I have over $1M in BTC. Until then I wait and stack.

shivask25846

That move was wild 🔥 BTC really decided to wake up. Curious to see if this momentum holds or we get a pullback from here.

shinHardc0re

Would be awesome, but probably not Still, I'd say it is a good time to sell some BTC, yes. It'll probably be cheaper until the end of the month

Big_Perspective_209

BTC is a wildly fluctuating currency. Unless your tattoo artist accepts bitcoin (might as well ask lol) I would just hold the cash

Feralz2

theres a big difference between 5 cent BTC and 85,000 dollar BTC kids.

MrMoo151515

I had bought some BTC ETFs for price exposure. Then I had a random video in my feed with Simon Dixon. Then another with Jeff Booth and my mind was blown. Spent the next 2 months Obsessively reading and listening to people in the space and I realized there was no going back. It took a few weeks to convince my wife but now shes fully onboard. We even have 2 cats named Bitcoin and Satoshi lol.

fabtico

Unpopular opinion but BTC will never become mainstream, so far it has failed to gain any real life relevance

NoParamedic7831

Do you want to preserve wealth into the future? BTC. Would you prefer whatever shapes on your body? Buy tattoos. That value is yours to judge.

einsdreidreisieben_

Got a question boys: Should I buy if I need to sell in 2-3 Months? Got 3.000€ for Tattoos should I buy BTC with it and sell it if I need the money to pay or the tattoos or don't invest the 3k?

DontLook_Weirdo

If you're trading options and things like that, sure, but this is BTC - it's very 'set it and forget it's since it takes months to years for action to happen. We hype each other up but tbh BTC is very chill

EstablishmentPale419

Timing the market is statistically impossible to do consistently. The people that get lucky and sell at good prices end up dumping their profits into other investments that they end up mistiming. Then when BTC moons they whine about missing out on millions in gains. I'm sure you can find exeptions but they only serve to prove the rule.

Successful_Pin_2641

Chasing x40 influencer shitcoins and wasting cycles and stress, and seeing btc X6 with ETF money that would never trickle down into alts. A X5 would have been way more than enough. I could just see my dream of owning 1 btc fly away. Only BTC by now on. The only true and mature investment.

kallaloostx

When i bought $100 worth on Coinbase in 2018 and totally forgot about it until i checked last year and saw what it was worth. Went all in near the top last year. The was my aha moment that BTC was a valuable asset and to treat it like any other. HODL. Stay calm. DCA. Don't follow hype. I excitedly DCA'd all the way down to the 60s and am still doing so.

brdoc

What happened definitely wasn't the most obvious path BTC took. That means it's not predictable. How can you have any certainty right after all that? DCA is the way, anything else is noise, there's nothing "official" here bro

braamdepace

When you say to yourself. The oldest person I know who owns BTC is 30. Do I think more people or less people will own it on the future? Then I look at who is “influencing” the next generation and they are for the most part pro BTC. At that point, I don’t need to understand anything other than that although I do have a degree in finance and accounting.

powerbone

Zooming out cuts both ways, as $BTC drawdown history usually rewards patients while punishing short-term buyers.

KronosOnSkooma

No, you're too late. BTC has already peaked, only downhill from here 😋

MyAnusBleeding

Why would you do that as BTC crosses 200 wma and every indicator is saying bullish. Why. WHY

ultravi0let__

I think BTC goes up like a sharp 2-3% every Friday for the past month or two because everyone gets paid and DCA’s lol

SyrupCold1874

The best moment was yesterday and the 2nd best moment is today. You will never find the right moment to start…when you realize it and decide BTC will be at 300K and you will regret not having started earlier. At the current cycle stage we are in, I recommend that you start now 😁😁

Generationhodl

"I sold 25% of my BTC holdings for dry powder in case this october/november "bloodbath" actually does come." jesus christ

Pizzaboy0511

Not yet time to profit take. When BTC hits 100k-126k range this is when to profit take since 10% ownership was bought at this range and those owners will probably take that chance to exit position. This will cause price to clash with the support level at 75-90k range (which is 25% of owners majority of which is institutional). So the play right now is absolutely to buy. Then sell when BTC hits above 100k. Then buy back at \~85k. This is the short term long term play.

tenor_tymir

I would add BitBox02 BTC-only to that list. Very reputable HW wallet from switzerland

Beautiful_Level_3259

Because if the overall market truly crashes for the first time in the history of BTC we’ll be seeing a lot lower before seeing 100l again

ct-987987

Most likely but don’t get ahead of yourself. BTC has a tendency to suprise the F out of you, as soon as everyone starts to think one thing and do the opposite

tenor_tymir

I’m 120% invested, meaning yes, I took out a loan and am paying it off slowly while BTC is appreciating in value. So far, so good.

ds3101

I just want to explain my thought process, this wasn't to try to dunk on you or anything - I just used your comment as a general market sentiment pulse. Everything I was watching was indicating that the bottom was in or near (I actually thought we'd get another 10-15% drop). Not that it can't drop back to $60k, but I just think the data shows that it's unlikely. My invalidation criteria that I'm correct would be if we get a weekly close below $67.5k; I don't' think the market will allow everyone to perfectly wait and accumulate again at the lows (I could be wrong). I was in the same camp last bear market and missed out on great buys waiting for $12k BTC.

Darkpriest667

It's Trump fumbling the economy combined with the investment in AI, otherwise there would be much more investment into BTC right now.

Boomheadshotallday

You don't have to be lock in. Either you are in or out in BTC. Go ham or dont even touch it.

bbatardo

BTC is a liquid asset. If you need money you sell, and if you don't you buy. Even when it hits the next ATH it won't be a straight line up.

Live_Jazz

The act of holding savings in BTC or gold inherently removes monetary power from government. Both serve to remove money the influence that comes with it from the system that enables the money printing. In other words, the government can retain its “power” to print, but the more people have opted out of such currencies, the less that power matters.

HelloYatta

Is there anyway to lift the buying restrictions on Coinbase? After maxing out my limits 3 days in a row, they won't let me buy until my limit resets in 3 day... meanwhile BTC is climbing 😭😭

team_lloyd

I recently purchased at $79k, so speaking as an expert in the space and someone with a clear knack for reading this market I say no, you are too late to this and you should quit. but seriously, I bought 4 bitcoin back in the day when they were $65 bucks to buy drugs for a bachelor party off of the Silk Road. I forgot I bought them the next morning (almost certainly drug related) then realized a year or so later when they were $400 that I was sitting on $2400 *whole real dollars*, so I sold them and felt like an absolute genius, until 2017….. my point in sharing this anecdote is that there is no bad time to buy, even if you bought at $126k. In my opinion owning bitcoin, at minimum, even if your BTC investment ends up being a net negative when you die, keeps you engaged with the space, the technology, with whatever our economy is becoming. it’s building a muscle that everyone on the planet is going to need, which is the “shit I can’t just work for a paycheck anymore and expect to live my life with meaningful security, I need to be aware of markets, crypto and otherwise, and I need to do this daily” muscle. For me, the only way I was able to develop that muscle was by engaging with and trading crypto. i learned more about myself, the world, and how and why shit really happens in life by trading shit coins than I ever learned in college. my Loopring stories are even funnier than the BTC one. of course at maximum the BTC trade ends up being a play for total financial liberty, because I do believe anyone who is in this early is going to do very well. as long as they don’t do what 26 year old me did and sell their whole coins to rent a shore house for a month to do jagerbombs and sleep until 1pm with young ladies of dubious distinction. then you would be doing less well, but I guess still kinda alright, depending on how you look at it.

Beautiful_Level_3259

First let me say I’m a BTC bull. But BTC has never existed during a SPY crash. Trust me if the SPY ends up crashing in the next year or so and we go into some sort of depression, BTC is coming with it and likely sub 50k.

JimmySki6166

Bitcoin is a weekly purchase in my opinion, and has been for years! You can never have enough BTC in my eyes!! Hopefully my daughter will reap the benefits of my investment in BTC over the years!!

gordonfr_

Those dancing dudes are probably the ones that sold their BTC on a high. Watching dude just takes cold showers instead.

mpl0004

If you want to own BTC, then buy BTC. If you only want it at $40k, then wait for $40k. But just accept that you might never own it.

NoParamedic7831

2% overall or 2% of your cRyPtO? If you're shitcoin holdings are anywhere close to the BTC holdings, yer doing it wrong.

powerbone

Chasing an arbitrary $82k target ignores macro liquidity; DCA into $BTC gradually instead of timing short-term dips.

Old_Passenger7

This is apples an oranges, comparing USD inflation against BTC conversion makes no sense. Compare buying power for both.

JunkBondJunkie

I'm planning my exit. I want to use my BTC to buy another rental property

Demonyx12

If I said it once I've said it a thousand times: 1. DCA & HODL for dear life 2. BTC 85%; ETH 10%; OTHER 5% (My other is SOL)

lus1d

Spent $330 AUD on a tank of diesel last week - a new PB. When I was buying sheets of 100 tabs for 4 BTC off SilkRoad I never thought I’d be paying over $3 pet litre for diesel …. Or BTC would actually hit $100k. I dreamed it would hit a million on my fantasies but never $100k in reality.

iiGoodVibesii

I love it. I've been doing this with my credit card reward points. I pay it off each cycle, and roll the points into BTC. LOVE this

iiGoodVibesii

I've been doing all my purchases through a cash reward credit card... Then I convert my points into BTC. It's obviously not much.. but you'd be amazed how much you accumulate after a year of doing it.

TheBigBRRRR

A lot can happen to BTC in a month and the higher the frequency of the savings plan is, the more accurate your average buying price will be

rtopete

what's going to be the price of BTC in 30 years?

young45money

Glückwunsch! Ich für meinen Teil schaue aber immer wie viel x,xxx BTC ich habe nicht wie viel FIAT Geld das gerade ist.

TheBigBRRRR

Da BTC (noch) sehr volatil ist, würde ich die Ausführungsfrequenz erhöhen (z.B. wöchentlich) und dafür den Betrag entsprechend senken. (Sofern die Sparplangebühren nicht zu hoch sind)

Raphae1

I'd say, it's much more likely that the bottom is in rather than an October fall. Get some BTC now and hope for a drop with the rest of your money.

Ok_Wrongdoer_4308

I have debt but I don’t want to get rid of any BTC at this point so I’m paying a higher percentage in interest right now.

ChippyCho

Anyone who tells you they know what the price of BTC will be at a specific time in the future is lying. price go up, this much we know for sure 

xiskghferx

For what would you sell BTC? For fiat money, which investors don't want any more, even for 5% rates?

Purple_Jackfruit_787

10-year at 5.12% and BTC still doing its thing. Markets really said “good luck figuring this out” 💀

Accomplished-Sand334

Yes, the BTC will be really awesome when you want to pay mortgage or buy food /is s really needed here?

Lord_Mythand

Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Also, btc's total addressable market is already almost achieved. No nation-state is going to keep funds in a traceable account where their adversaries can see the fund movement. Privacy is a must for nation-state strategic reserves. The best BTC csn hope is more ETF inflows and perhaps 200k by 2030.

FeelingMimsy

Good to know. It's important to specify countries when making statements like that, though, since it *does* vary significantly by country. In the US (and apparently Italy) any transaction using BTC is considered an act of conversion, and capital gains are taxed based on the dollar value of the transaction.

crazybird-thereal

Not in my plans, I’ll still accumulate with DCA. And when i can stop working, i’ll leave by using BTC to finance my every day life. So i’m not depending of BTC reaching 100K$ but BTC in 30 years.

mvds74

Honestly, these kinds of posts (OP, not yours) are so boring/annoying. Just like the "BTC went up/down x%, what caused this?" posts every day.

MofoFTW

Just remember, that the new ATH will likely be disappointing as well. It will be max 3x from the last bottom, maybe 4x in 2029. So, not sure why everyone is celebrating the fact that BTC did not hit 40k.

Peturio

A little late, but hopefully still useful: ran your positions our portfolio risk analysis tool at [Sentralis.io](https://sentralis.io), the portfolio risk analysis I'm building, with no price trend assumed. In a one-year 25k path Monte-Carlo simulation on the past year's volatility and correlations, the worst 5% of outcomes lose 57% or more, and the median path passes through a 45% drawdown. About one path in six ends the year below the 1100.- paid. One path in seven doubles and one in eighteen for the same money in BTC alone. BTC is 35% of the money but only 25% of the risk. PENDLE, AAVE and HYPE are 34% of the money and 43% of the risk, because they run at 85% to 102% annual volatility against 44% for BTC. HYPE is still your best diversifier, with a correlation of about 0.5 to the other five coins, while BTC, ETH and SOL move together at 0.87 to 0.91. For your sell ladders, the same data puts monthly volatility at about 13% for BTC, 17% for ETH, 19% for SOL, 25% for AAVE, 28% for HYPE and 29% for PENDLE. All figures are model estimates, not predictions

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Post is by: Agitated-Kick-6986 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wvo8el/advice_for_starting_a_longterm_investment/ I have informed myself as much as possible, and as a final step, I was curious on hearing other people's opinions who have in the market much longer. I am thinking of starting my first investment into Crypto, specifically Solana, as it has more upside than BTC, or ETH, yet it still very reputable and not some memecoin. Only thing I am worried about, is a potential large correction, even though this remains a worry for whatever Crypto I choose to invest in. I think Crypto is here to stay long-term and I certainly don't believe it will ever go to 0 like the doomers say. What do you guys think? Risks I should know about or other opportunities? Is going just into SOL a smart decision or not? My investment horizon is long-term, where i plan on just adding what I can month after month *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

faisal_yk26

That's basically the out-of-sample test I meant. If it's a genuine 2013 post, $95k against BTC in the mid $80ks today is only about 10-15% off after 13 years, which is impressive for a curve fitted on a few years of data. The catch is survivorship though, lots of people posted models back then and we only remember the one that landed.

Worried-Tell-7221

BTC really decided $86k was just a suggestion. That move up was pretty aggressive, and the short squeeze definitely added fuel to it. Now I’m more interested in whether this level can actually hold rather than just watching another vertical candle. If momentum stays this strong, the next few hours should be interesting.

Gazpachopopo

BTC seems to always circle back is all

powerbone

Journaling proves $BTC behavior never changes, only trader emotions do. Do you adjust your edge or just your leverage?

KnowPilot

Short covering can add fuel: when price rises, traders buying back BTC to close short positions become extra buyers. But that alone can’t identify the catalyst here; the jobs report and payday explanations in the comments are speculation.

Affectionate-Sun8716

The non-conspiracy version: the IMF approved a \~$1.4B loan to El Salvador (an Extended Fund Facility), and lenders attach conditions. The IMF's stated concerns are pretty mundane — El Salvador is dollarized and can't print its own currency, so adding a volatile asset to the sovereign balance sheet raises questions about debt sustainability and the government's ability to repay. The conditions (no forced acceptance, no tax payments in BTC, winding down the Chivo wallet, limits on public-sector BTC exposure) are all about keeping that risk contained and the loan repayable. Whether you agree with them or not, that's the stated logic — creditor protecting itself, not shadowy mind control.

Prior_Parsley3960

Since OP only posted a link: **Importance:** ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ — meaningful cross-chain infrastructure failure, but relatively contained financially and **not a compromise of the NEAR blockchain itself**. * **What happened:** NEAR Intents, NEAR's cross-chain swapping system, lost approximately **$3.8 million** after an attacker exploited a bug involving its **Omni deposit/withdrawal infrastructure and an Intents smart contract**. The team halted services, patched the contract-side vulnerability and promised full reimbursement. [The Block](https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-10-01-near-intents-halts-services-after-3-8-million-exploit-promises-full-compensation-417404?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **How it worked:** The affected infrastructure holds assets deposited from other blockchains so NEAR Intents can execute cross-chain swaps. On-chain analysis indicates the attacker extracted roughly **$3.87M USDT from a BNB Chain vault in five withdrawals** over about six hours. This points to the cross-chain custody/authorization layer rather than NEAR's consensus or base blockchain. [Bitquery](https://bitquery.io/investigations/near-intents-hack?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Where the money went:** Investigators traced nearly all of it. Bitquery found roughly **76% converted into 34.69 BTC**, while about $802,000 reached KuCoin addresses. Remarkably, the attacker apparently routed about **$822,000 of the stolen assets back through NEAR Intents itself** while draining the system. [Bitquery](https://bitquery.io/investigations/near-intents-hack?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Containment:** Deposits and withdrawals across **11 connected networks** were temporarily suspended while fixes were deployed. Core service has since begun resuming, and NEAR Intents says users will be made whole. [The Block](https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-10-01-near-intents-halts-services-after-3-8-million-exploit-promises-full-compensation-417404?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Market reaction:** NEAR dropped roughly **7–9%** following disclosure. The timing is particularly awkward because the exploit occurred only two days after the launch of the first U.S. spot NEAR ETF, which highlighted NEAR Intents as an important part of the ecosystem. [BeInCrypto](https://beincrypto.com/near-intents-hacked-3-8-million/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) # Bottom line This looks much more like a **bridge/infrastructure exploit than a NEAR Protocol failure**. There is currently no evidence that NEAR's blockchain, consensus mechanism or native token itself was compromised. The forthcoming technical postmortem matters most: investigators know **where the money went**, but NEAR Intents has not yet fully explained **why apparently unauthorized withdrawal requests were accepted**. That distinction will determine whether this was a narrow implementation bug or evidence of a more fundamental weakness in its cross-chain architecture.

Romanizer

The Blockchain is pseudonymus so we will never know exactly but the River Adoption report tries to get an approximation: https://river.com/learn/files/river-bitcoin-adoption-report-2026.pdf So about 14 million BTC owned by individuals/private wallets and part of the ETFs.

Omniwatch

If your sole advantage is lending nations money so they owe you favors while you direct their policies and resources, and BTC emerges to strip that control, what would you do as the IMF?

ztkraf01

Can’t even get to BTC without understanding what we are trying to beat