BTC

OkMagician7867

Solid take on the fear vs. engagement split — that's the part most people aren't paying attention to. One thing worth adding: top traders on Binance are actually net short right now at 0.87 L/S, while retail is sitting at 1.73 long. That's a pretty wide gap and historically it doesn't end well for the retail side. And yeah the miner selling is a big deal that nobody talks about. MARA and Riot need cash for their AI pivot regardless of what BTC does — that's not the kind of sell pressure that stops because sentiment improves. I'm watching the same $65K level. Right now 4H StochRSI is at 97.78 which screams overbought inside a bear trend. If the 21 EMA around $68.3K rejects this bounce, we get there pretty quick. The Schwab piece is interesting though. New institutional rails showing up while retail is at peak fear — that's usually how bottoms start forming. Just not always on the first test.

Delicious-Window-307

I bought 3.7 BTC at 113.5k… golden hands

InvestAISavvy

Fear & Greed at 9 and people are still DCA'ing — honestly that's probably the right call. BTC social dominance just hit its 1-year high, which usually means smart money is quietly accumulating while everyone else posts memes about holding to zero.

InvestAISavvy

The Fear & Greed at 9 is telling one story, but the social data is telling a different one and that's what I keep coming back to. BTC social dominance just hit 28.7% — near its 1-year high. Engagement across major platforms is running about 12% above the daily average. Sentiment is at 68%, which isn't euphoric but it's not capitulation either. So you've got maximum fear in the index but *attention is increasing*, not decreasing. People aren't looking away — they're researching. That divergence between fear and engagement usually resolves in one of two ways. Either it's accumulation behavior before a move up, or it's rubbernecking before a bigger leg down. Your $65K level probably decides which. The miner sell-off angle is real — MARA and Riot are dumping BTC to fund AI data center pivots, so that's structural sell pressure that won't stop just because sentiment improves. But on the other side, Schwab is about to launch spot BTC trading and the Clarity Act draft is expected this month. That's new institutional access showing up right when retail is at maximum fear. Galaxy Score sitting at 60.7 — not great, but it was at 18 back in February. Slow recovery while price grinds sideways isn't nothing.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

BTC holding up surprisingly well, despite bears calling sub $50K for weeks, war, and stocks tanking. Holding pretty steady. Even silver is more volatile than BTC right now. I'm sure it will eventually drop back. But bears here who were waiting for $50K all this time, have probably long been liquidated by now. And the bears waiting to buy low thinking it was gonna be sub $50K, are probably confused. Now watch this thing still have a brief relief rally, and then those bears panic buy high timing it all wrong again lol. It would be so typical of r/cc

stereoagnostic

Did I miss something? Price action continues to be boring and sideways. Same BTC range for two months now.

joos_hubert

There isn’t really a magic amount. Running a node is less about how much BTC you own and more about whether you want to verify things yourself instead of outsourcing that trust. My take: \- if you just bought BTC and want secure storage, fix custody/backups first \- if you want more privacy and sovereignty, start looking at a node sooner rather than later \- if you won't connect your wallet to it or maintain it, don't romanticize it too much So I'd say: start when you're curious enough to actually use it, not when you hit some portfolio number.

Choice_Potato_6279

Yeah it's gonna end up along with neo, iota, vet, nano graveyard like all the other reddit coins. What's funny most reddit hated coins are doing pretty good - BNB and TRX, still though it's better to go all in Bitcoin than alts that barerly match BTC performance.

Quietlion79

Hey there, I appreciate your response! It is quite real as this is a close friend and we did manage to regain access to her coinbase exchange and saw in the transaction log that approximately 14.5 BTC should still remain in her wallet. The last transaction was a withdrawal of 1.5 BTC wallet>exchange>fiat in early June of 2013, and the first transactions were a few months before. I appreciate the perspective on the TOR browser, I wasn't sure how that worked. I was thinking that looking for certain files on the drives would be the best bet, but I would assume that there are no universal wallet files, so figuring out what company she used for her wallet would be a good first step. Do you know what file names I should look for? I believe I have backups of both drives, but I am thinking about doing it again, as I want to be certain I have the entirety of each drive. She is an "analog" person and this is almost 13 years ago, so she is trying to remember what and where things are. She seems to think that there may have been a different "section", assuming she means partition, that the wallet may be on. Using basic diagnostic tools, I believe that I saw two partitions on each drive, so I want to make sure I make an exact clone. I don't think Time Machine will do it, so I was looking into third party software. Any thoughts? I see Super Duper mentioned. The text file is strange indeed. I thought maybe her friend used it as another layer of security, hiding the seed phrase in it, with another document that indicates the numbers of the words in the seed phrase. She mentioned another document (she says she recorded everything meticulously) with VINs on it (she is into cars, so she relates everything back to cars) that were a series of letters and numbers, perhaps? Still looking for that. Thanks for the word to the wise! That was part of the reason why I thought getting the old laptop working was the best bet as it was all original, working and trusted. Yes, it may be that time, but finding a place that is not just going to vanish once her BTC is recovered has to be a minefield, let alone knows what the heck they are doing!

Decent-Treat-3298

As a miner ,  i am mining as we speak. And his point of trading rather than mining is partly true. So, i do both. If you can get low electric and have paid off hardware you can be buying BTC @ 40-60k a coin. Or lower depending on electric bill and hardware costs. Its not for everyone obviously. 

VastJuice2949

Hold BTC

UpperHandLab

That’s the real issue. It’s not whether you can trade BTC well. It’s whether your edge survives friction. On a 5-minute system, most prop firm models become a hidden tax. Fees, spread, payout rules, trailing drawdown, execution constraints — all of that can turn a good strategy into a bad business model. So the better question is not “can prop firms work?” It’s: does your edge still exist after costs, restrictions, and rule pressure? If BTC is the only instrument where you actually have a proven read, I would be careful about forcing that edge into a structure that was not built for it. Starting with your own $1,000 may be slower, but it gives you cleaner data, cleaner feedback, and fewer artificial constraints. That matters a lot more than most traders admit. A lot of people confuse access to capital with access to a real edge. Those are not the same thing. The edge is first. Then you test whether the environment lets it survive.

IncurableCrush

Lost $400k putting 1mm into MSTR at close to BTC ATH then trying MSTR Options then selling for a loss and moving it all to MSTY then sold that dog and put it into MSTW

atlasayn

The cycle isn't dead but it's getting noisier. We track this with a multi-factor approach: MVRV, days since halving, ATH drawdown, 200W SMA distance, and supply in profit %. By those metrics we're in a POST-PEAK / LATE-CORRECTION zone — not the clean "up only" mid-cycle most people expect. The real shift is macro coupling. BTC/SPX correlation swings between 0.55 (moves with stocks) and near-zero (independent). When coupling is high, a Fed decision matters more than halving supply math. When it's low, on-chain metrics dominate. Knowing which regime you're in matters more than whether "the cycle" exists. The 4-year structure probably persists as a loose framework, but the amplitude and timing are getting distorted by ETF flows, institutional rebalancing, and macro regime shifts. The cycle is real. The clockwork precision people expect from it is not.

praise_the_most_high

Seeing this meme while BTC hovers around 67k is wild!

nplbmf

I’ll assume you’re looking at coinbase. So, If you buy $1000 now they’ll sell to you at the worst price with the highest fees. You’ll end up with $950 in Bitcoin value (calm down I’m just using $’s for example). Then, when you sell, they’ll sell it for you at the worst price for the highest fees. If you went in and out with your $1000 in the next hour, you’d end up with probably $900 and a confused look. You’ll need at least $70-$75k BTC to guarantee profit.

ReplacementFormer861

Exactly right and this is the most underrated part of the current cycle. The 2022 bear market had a body count. Terra, Celsius, Voyager, FTX, BlockFi all gone within months of each other. The contagion was structural. This drawdown has no equivalent. No major exchange has failed. No stablecoin has depegged catastrophically. No celebrity CEO is in handcuffs. The bear case now is purely macro. Iran, oil, rates. Those are external headwinds not internal rot. When the macro clears the infrastructure is still intact. That is a completely different recovery setup than 2022 where you had to rebuild trust from scratch. The one risk worth watching is whether the miner AI pivot creates structural pressure on hash rate. If the companies securing the network keep selling BTC to fund data centers that is internal damage accumulating quietly.

Yannick_1989

According to BTC rainbow chart yes, but with the potential towards more downside : [https://www.blockchaincenter.net/de/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/de/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/) The question is : do you/we beleive in the rainbow-chart ?

harl_vann

The only bad times to buy bitcoin are 1. when the price of BTC is near its all time high 2. when you have no money you can afford to tuck away for 4 or 5 years.

-909-

Yeah on Bisq I believe you can buy Bitcoin with Amazon gift cards, if that's the kind of thing you mean. No KYC verification needed. I've never used that method myself, I think trades require a deposit from both parties so I'm not sure how that works. Maybe you need to use BTC for the deposit so it might not be a viable way if you don't already have any.

HandIllustrious2326

Think of it like this, i bought at 124k and im 50% down from my purchase. I STILL continue to buy today despite analysts predicting 40k price because i believe in BTC long term and think it is a very cool idea and the #1 digital asset in the world and the world will definitely become more digital so why wouldn’t you invest in the #1 digital asset?

el_shaq

Curious to know how does the higher inflation we may be experiencing in the following months from the oil crisis factor into this equation? Way less people will have some disposable income to buy their sats, which ends up proping up BTC price?

Aquinoxia

Been in the crypto game since 2020. Invested in VET, ADA, XRP. I have never actually put money in BTC however. Thinking about doing it. Do we think it'll dip further or should I just go for it now? Any other suggestions for more secure coins? SOL?

RoofRich1571

The '9-minute' headline is great for clicks, but the real technical nightmare isn't the hardware scaling—it’s the **social consensus** of 10 million 'lost' coins. Sure, we can patch the protocol with BIP-360, but how do you migrate **Satoshi’s 1.1 million BTC** or the billions in 'zombie wallets' that don't have an active user to sign a transition transaction? If we don't migrate them, they become a permanent 'bounty' for the first state-actor with a stable Qubit array. If we *do* hard-fork to burn or lock them, we’ve just turned Bitcoin into a centralized database managed by a committee. The 'Gods' of cryptography are basically telling us we have a choice: 1. Maintain 'Immutability' and let Quantum computers slowly drain the foundations of the network. 2. Maintain 'Security' and admit that the 'Code is Law' era died the moment we had to manually intervene to stop a Shor’s algorithm exploit. I’m looking forward to the 2028 'Civil War' where half the network refuses to upgrade because 'Quantum isn't real' while the other half watches their cold storage turn into a public donation. At least the **Symmetric encryption** crowd can laugh at us from their AES-256 bunkers while we're arguing over which multi-sig flavor tastes less like defeat. Is Bitcoin actually 'un-hackable' if the only way to save it is to break its primary promise of decentralization?

coffeebadger21

Use the gift card to buy a pizza for a Bitcoiner and they'll reimburse you with BTC.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Low_Secret1252 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sc9alc/i_tested_a_crypto_prediction_market_and_wasnt/ I think most people are looking at crypto the wrong way. Everyone stares at charts… but nobody looks at what people are actually *betting on*. I’ve been testing this prediction market app → [https://cryptopredict-547816944334.us-west1.run.app](https://cryptopredict-547816944334.us-west1.run.app/) It basically shows: * where people think BTC/ETH are going * how confident they are (with real stakes behind it) * shifts in sentiment *before* price reacts Caught a bearish flip before the last dip just watching sentiment move. Not saying it’s magic… but it’s way more useful than scrolling Twitter for “alpha” Curious how others would use this: Follow the crowd… or fade them? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

LongjumpingAnt1517

45k target has been floating around since BTC started struggling with the 80k zone😬. the interesting thing isn't the number, it's that the market moved before most X analysts started talking about it. whether that means prediction markets lead sentiment or just lag more informed circles, i still can't tell

Commercial-Ad90

This and your previous post seems more like a man rambling about a business idea for a sector he’s passionate about, rather than legitimate business plan that has started gaining traction. What people have you talked to. What substantive deals have you signed, if any? What actionable next steps are you providing to executives? What immediate, tangible value are you showing them, how are you/BTC gonna make them money?

OkMagician7867

Your numbers are close but our data paints a darker picture: retail L/S is actually 1.73 (not 1.65) vs top traders at 0.87 short. That's one of the strongest contrarian sell signals in recent history — smart money isn't waiting, they're actively positioning against retail. Funding "near zero" is misleading — all 3 majors (Binance, OKX, Bybit) are positive. Longs paying shorts across the board. Low liqs and flat OI aren't safety signals — they mean the flush hasn't started yet. BTC daily MACD at -187 (deepest negative this cycle), 4H StochRSI 97.78 overbought inside a bear trend = textbook trap. SOL L/S at 3.09 with $4.16B in longs is a liquidation cascade waiting to happen. The real level isn't $65K — it's $65,712. If that breaks, $60-61.5K is next. F&G at 11 (Extreme Fear) is the only mildly bullish data point. Everything else says: this isn't consolidation, it's distribution.

infernal_celery

Setting up a Bitcoin system for yourself. If you look for beginners materials, you get lots of basic advice of “use a hardware wallet and never spend”, which is a start but it’s useless info for adoption. If you stop there, that lets people get to “number goes up” but not really to everyday use.  After a while, you start wondering “is this it?”. I imagine many people give up there and think Bitcoin is just a speculative thing.  You then see YouTube shorts of dudes paying at market stalls with BTC but there’s no explanation of using Lightning wallets as a separate current-account-style system. So that diverts people to centralised wallet services, thinking that this is how BTC is used as actual cash payments, which kind of misses the point of the whole Bitcoin project. (Not that there’s anything wrong with a payments app - I use Strike - but knowledge of Lightning self-custody should be bundled in early on). Most materials assume a lot of computer literacy, so most guides refer to CLI which your regular dude doesn’t use. That’s not comfort-inducing when you’re starting out, especially if you’ve just put your wages into BTC. Makes it feel like you’re playing in stuff that’s beyond you.  Guides never talk about things like why an exchange might delay your withdrawals (probably because most authors don’t understand financial services regulation), why stolen funds are a problem for converting to fiat because tracing is so simple, or anything like that which is important for Joe Average to know about early on. It’s quite often that you see Reddit posts from people wondering why [x] has delayed their withdrawals, getting frustrated. That’s not a Bitcoin issue directly but it is a friction that could discourage people from further use. This could easily be overcome by explaining expected KYC and AML regs in beginner materials.

Odd_Bar9513

How on earth could I have known that it would dip shortly after? It could as well have risen. Good thing if you are perfect timing every single dip and peak. People like you often just end up waiting forever for the ”perfect timing” and missing the train completely. I can’t get my mind wrapped on why you see the need to come and comment that. In the big picture BTC will rise anyway, so I will anyway end up being a winner.

lukesmit695

Look up videos from “BTC Sessions”

VeryThicknLong

Would we have to do anything as BTC owners if it went BIP360?

Think-Sector-6329

I think you're mixing a few things together, but yea, you'd probably still be able to buy BTC with it. Thebigger issue isn't actually whether bank digital money can buy bitcoin. it's that anything inside the banking system can still be watched, blocked, or frozen. That's the kind of the whole reason people care about self-custody in the first place. So yea, digital banking money might make access easier, but it doesn't remove control from the system.

AutoModerator

Post is by: mr_sung_ and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sc4quh/april_2026_bitcoins_most_bullish_month_is_here/ Guys, the market is currently in Extreme Fear mode. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is sitting at extremely low levels (around 10-15), and Q1 2026 delivered one of the worst performances for Bitcoin with a \~23% drawdown. Everyone is turning bearish. But history tells a completely different story 👇 Bitcoin’s Historical Performance in April (2013–2025): ✅ Average Return: +12% to +13% ✅ Win Rate: 69% (9 green Aprils out of 13) ✅ Multiple years delivered +28% to +40%+ gains Right now, Bitcoin is trading around $66,500 – $67,000, holding a strong support zone. Whales and ETF inflows have consistently defended the dips. My Analysis: Even if Bitcoin delivers just its historical average return this April, we could easily see $75,000 – $80,000. A clean break above $75k would signal the start of a strong leg up, potentially pushing toward $100k+ in the coming months. Extreme Fear + seasonal strength + institutional inflows = classic accumulation phase. Those who are still waiting for a “better dip” are making the exact same mistake many made before the 2024-2025 bull run. This is the time to accumulate! FOMO is created when everyone is scared — and right now, fear is at its peak. Chart attached 👆 (Historical April performance + current support/resistance with upside targets clearly marked) What do you think? Will BTC touch $80k in April? Or do you expect more downside first? Drop your price target in the comments 👇 Like if you’re bullish! ❤️ Share this with friends who are missing the opportunity 😂 \#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #AprilBull #WriteToEarn #BinanceSquare *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

PlasticDisastrous232

I have a maximum of 2 trades per day, if that many. The key is that I follow Open Interest and use it to confirm supply or demand zones. I look for zones where OI is increasing, and after that the price leaves the zone, then I place a limit order. Situations like that, with really high-quality setups, happen a maximum of 2 or 3 times per day. Sometimes none at all — it all depends on how scattered the OI is. If there’s no clear picture on the chart, then it’s simply not a quality setup. I also try to avoid opening positions during the first 2–3 hours of the NY session because that’s when the highest volume and OI activity happens, and generally it’s the period of highest volatility, which can affect the OI at any moment. I much prefer to wait for the volume to calm down, and only then look for textbook supply/demand zones. I’ve also been burned enough times to confirm to myself that I should only trade BTC. No matter how good a zone looks on another coin, when BTC moves, it leads the whole market. So, in short: supply and demand zones during periods of high volume and open interest, avoiding the first 2–3 hours of the NY session. Entries with limit orders, and that’s it. Of course there are stop losses, but there are more wins than losses. The problem is that if you want to trade based on Open Interest (OI), then you have to do it intraday. The smaller the timeframe, the more up-to-date and relevant the OI data is. That’s why it doesn’t make sense to trade it on higher timeframes.

NoodlesOnTuesday

The level matters less than the confluence around it. $65K on its own is a round number, which has some psychological weight. But what actually makes it significant is whether multiple independent signals converge there. For BTC specifically I would look at: prior consolidation zones where price spent time (not just touched and bounced), volume profile nodes showing where most trading happened, and the monthly timeframe structure. If $65K is a low-volume pocket between two high-volume nodes, the price will move through it fast in either direction. If its a high-volume level itself, it will act as a magnet and consolidation point. One thing worth keeping in mind with crypto: traditional S/R concepts work differently with 24/7 markets. There is no opening gap, no overnight gap to fill. Levels get tested more frequently and more thoroughly than in equity markets. What looks like strong support on the 4h chart might just be a temporary pause in a larger move. I find weekly closes more meaningful than intraday wicks for establishing whether a level actually held. A wick below $65K that closes above it is very different from a weekly close below it.

betch123345678910

Got it. I’m skeptical that this is a case of finding a pattern where there isn’t a relationship, but I’m open to learning more. Are there any fundamentals underlying this law? What are the reasons to believe BTC price will rise in the way that this model describes?

betch123345678910

Got it. I’m skeptical that this is a case of finding a pattern where there isn’t a relationship, but I’m open to learning more. Are there any fundamentals underlying this law? What are the reasons to believe BTC price will rise in the way that this model describes?

Permtacular

Selling some $200 in BTC to buy some Tron.

oopssomething

Bought CRO in September, I'm down 80% in almost 8 months. Nice average of over -10% per month. Would never recommend anyone to buy crypto and I only buy BTC now.

Curious-Still

Why not just make it a lottery to get 1+ BTC.  Not watching ads to get a fraction of a cent.

More-Ad-2831

You are correctly identifying your biggest threat (Operational Risk / Human Error), but your proposed solutions walk you directly into an even bigger threat: Systemic Counterparty Capture. If you move your BTC to Kraken or an ETF (IBIT), you are legally executing a downgrade in property rights. Under current commercial code (UCC Article 8), an ETF or exchange balance is not 'your' Bitcoin. It is a 'Security Entitlement.' You are demoting yourself to an Unsecured Creditor. If the custodian faces a liquidity crisis or a 'bail-in,' the secured creditors (derivative counterparties) have legal super-priority to sweep the pooled collateral. You get what's left. You are trading the risk of a lost seed phrase for the risk of institutional confiscation. There is a third option you are missing: You don't need an ETF; you need Collaborative Custody (like Unchained or Casa). It’s a 2-of-3 Multisig vault. You hold 2 keys, they hold 1. If you lose a key while living your nomad lifestyle, you aren't wiped out. The firm uses their 3rd key to help you recover the vault. But because they only have 1 key, they can never move, lend, or seize your Bitcoin. It solves your 'mismanagement' anxiety without surrendering your property rights to Wall Street. Don't trade atoms for paper IOUs."

u_spawnTrapd

Yeah it kind of feels like macro liquidity still drives the bigger moves. Stuff like rate expectations or dollar strength seems to hit BTC harder than most crypto specific headlines lately. Crypto news still matters, but more in the short term or for sentiment spikes. The bigger trend shifts usually line up with broader market conditions. Curious if that changes again once we’re deeper into the next cycle though.

moldyjellybean

Title is missing major part what crypto? Because I’ve seen USDT freeze funds, I’ve seen centralized crypto do centralized garbage. BTC maxis get created when centralized things fail

fredwhoisflatulent

Because 335k in BTC is supposed to be the same as 2500k in fiat by OP’s maths. If I have to wait until BTC is worth 2500k in fiat to retire, then it is not worth the same to me as 2500k in fiat now.

thetimsterr

Why are you selling 1.2 BTC to get $100k? If your portfolio grows to $2.5M, then that means that at the time of retirement, Bitcoin is $500k per coin. You only need to sell 0.2 BTC to withdraw $100k. Alternatively, just sell it all and invest into 4%-5% bonds and live happily ever after* *as long as we don't have crazy high perpetual inflation

whatwilly0ubuild

The 500,000 qubit estimate needs context because it obscures the real engineering gap. Current quantum computers have thousands of physical qubits but extremely few logical qubits. The difference matters enormously. You need many physical qubits to create one error-corrected logical qubit that can actually run algorithms reliably. The 500,000 number is likely physical qubits, and the ratio of physical to logical is currently terrible, somewhere around 1000:1 for useful error correction. So you're really talking about needing machines orders of magnitude more capable than what exists. The 6.9 million vulnerable BTC framing is somewhat misleading. These are coins in addresses where the public key has been exposed, meaning the address has been spent from at least once. Coins sitting in addresses that have only received and never sent are protected by an additional hash layer. The real vulnerability window is between when you broadcast a transaction and when it confirms, because your public key is exposed during that period. A sufficiently fast quantum computer could theoretically derive your private key and submit a competing transaction. The timeline uncertainty is the honest answer. Quantum hardware progress isn't linear or predictable. Could be 10 years, could be 25. Anyone giving confident dates is guessing. What actually matters practically. The cryptographic community has post-quantum signature schemes ready. The migration is a coordination problem not a research problem. Bitcoin's BIP-360 and similar proposals exist. The transition will be messy but the path exists. The chains that drag their feet on migration will have problems, but the industry has time to execute if it starts moving seriously.

steppe5

Broke: A 2011 BTC faucet that gives you 4 BTC a day for free Woke: A 2026 BTC faucet that gives you 0.000000004 BTC a day in exchange for all of your private data.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Officially they are accepting stablecoins and yuan. There are also rumors that they accept other cryptocurrencies and euros. We already know the Iranian government has funds, and has wallets that have been using and accepting BTC, ETH, USDT, XRP, LTC, and TRX.

YSL_Crypto

Hopefully you have your seed phrase. If you do you can just setup another wallet with a new PIN using your seed phrase. Pin is for the physical device but the seed phrase is to access your BTC balance

IAmSomewhatDamaged

It’s fucking BEYOND nice, and it makes me feel even BETTER about starting to invest in BTC a few years ago. Thanks for the hard work buddy!

franktrollip

Hi, sorry but I don't know enough of those alts to be able to offer advice. May I ask how you've structured your portfolio? You say these are just the alts, so what % is BTC & ETH and any other big ones. You have quite a lot of alts. Did you research each one or are you following someone or something that suggests alts to buy. The only suggestion I can offer is that you look at what's included in some of the crypto indexes, like the CoinDesk 20 token that's made up of 20 top Cryptos. Maybe top 20 is a bit small but I don't know if there are others

AutoModerator

Post is by: Wild-Cup7515 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/investorsedge/comments/1sbq6ek/crazy_btc_move_coming/ btc has been very quiet and I was monitoring USD/JPY as we approach market close and the spread was tweaking with a 400pip spread indicating a large move incoming when market opens. why is this significant? if bank of Japan intervenes it would cause a big dump in the dollar and cause BTC to rip. we saw an example of this April 29th 2024 on a Japanese public holiday when usd/jpy was at 160.17 and today it closed at 159.55. It will not be immediately bullish though it caused BTC to spike $1500 initially and then had a flash crash 2 days after intervention before the bullish move. keep an eye out on the market people 🤑 i personally will be trading crypto options (straddles) on deribit to capture the volatility spikes and deleveraging in preparation for it. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Treverer

Thank your for your care, I fortunately know haha. I grew up around tech and we used BTC back in 2014 to trade and gamble with CS:GO skins and shit at 15 y.o. Gosh I wish I would’ve cared more about money and less about Minecraft and jerking off

szansky

Yes. You pay tax when you swap from BTC to fiat that's how it works in Poland. Then u will pay 19% tax of income.

Livid-Sundae-8994

It’s definitely possible your BTC is still there, but without the wallet ID or keyphrase, it’s going to be tough to access. I’d recommend checking that old phone again—even if the screen is smashed, you might still be able to pull the keyphrase off if you can connect it to a computer. Also, try looking through any old backups or files, like emails or cloud storage, where you might’ve saved it. [Blockchain.com](http://Blockchain.com) support might also help if you reach out with whatever details you have. If you can find the public key from the old login link, you could at least check the balance on a blockchain explorer.

Rickard403

No way. People calling for BTC to $1M were also calling for new ATH in 2026. Just because people have a soap box and lots of money to invest doesn't mean they know anything about BTC price movement. My guess is BTC will barely break $200k in 2029. I aslo figured the ATH in 2025 would be $135-150k, which was a very conservative estimate. If we didn't double the 2021 ATH in 2025 then.......yeah. Law of diminishing returns.

Toastlove

If you couldn't purchase BTC 15 years ago chances are you couldn't set a wallet up either.

Saffuran

I agree the government probably wouldn't "allow" an extended crisis persay but there is only so much control the government has to blunt true downward momentum -- it would be just as likely that we enter a period of extended stagflation, like what occurred through the late 70s and early 80s. In any scenario where the buying power of the dollar ends up gutted it would make more sense to track the value of Bitcoin relative to Gold or relative to some other hedge that has done well through other large market downturns in the past like the Swiss Franc -- since any Bitcoin gains on the dollar would be warped by loss in buying power or potential debasement of the Petroldollar. Like, if tomorrow we woke up and the buying power of the dollar was cut in half, BTC would be worth around $130,000 -- but its true value would not have moved at all. That is why it is important to track and monitor Bitcoin relative to other currencies (CHF) and assets (S&P, Gold) to get a better sense of where its true value actually is at any given time -- it also gives us additional clarity when trying to discern where tops and bottoms may be when considering the relativity of those assets as opposed to just their dollar-denominated values.

CrossPuffs

15 years ago, it was 30 cents. At BTC's peak last year, that's over a 40 million % gain. Sorry to say, but that's never going to happen again for BTC in our lifetimes.

CryptoOnTheSidewalk

Are you seeing that move backed by volume, or just price drifting up, and are alts moving with BTC or lagging? Early bull phases usually have stronger volume and follow-through across majors, but a lot of these pops end up being short squeezes, so I’d treat it as “wait and confirm” and not assume direction until it holds for a bit.

12161986

Exactly like that other BTC Faucet way back in the day!

Purple-Wall3847

A statoshi roll should be on every sushi restaurant menu that accepts BTC as payment LOL

GetDoofed

Purchasing BTC was definitely not easy 15 years ago

Saffuran

I mean WW3 talk is everywhere right now, so the geopolitical situation isn't exactly better right now in this moment and the difference is that the US is directly engaged in a conflict that is sending price shocks through the global economy that we haven't even fully begun feeling yet. I don't think you theory is impossible (nothing is) but it seems incredibly unlikely since Cryptocurrency as a whole is still in relative infancy and is too small to not still be at the tide/whim of the larger market. BTC is also at the mercy of some of the market because it is owned by a lot of large tech companies -- some like MicroStrategy are really just shell/treasury/piggybanks while other large corps like Tesla, Blackrock e.t.c. own large portions, which makes the asset more reliant on those stocks/companies than it would be if they didn't. A major downturn in private credit is going to cause a liquidity crunch -- increased oil costs also puts pressure on liquidity due to energy being the base input into the entire economy. When liquidity is low, risk assets sell to maintain regular functions - if these treasury companies or other tech stocks are forced to liquidate Bitcoin and other crypto holdings (like they were forced to do in 2020) that puts massive downward drag on the crypto market. While I agree that stimulus would increase the value of crypto/stocks/metals/risk assets in general, both through injecting direct liquidity (depending on how it is done) and by devaluing the dollar -- things are still likely to sharply downturn before they can surge back up in a scenario like that - almost certainly in a way that would break the 300 week moving average - this would be due to the fact that stimulus/QE is never proactive, but reactive to a market crisis that we would already be deep into.

Impossible-Weight852

His “research” is flawed. I highly doubt it is a peer reviewed and published in any reputable journal. He states the floor drops slowly over decades, but it actually drops annually. How is it equivalent to $2.5 million when his model only withdraws $3K/month and you need 10-20 BTC for a high degree of success? With 4% rule, you withdraw systematically, you can’t wait to withdraw at market peaks. What do you do for money when BTC is dead for prolonged periods of time? Either this guy is a retard or he’s publishing this for low IQ retards.

Low_Carpet9764

I agree with 54k being possible and good target, especially if war continues which it looks like it will; I am DCAing regardless with lump sums on side for those figures. Also while FTX was “contained” well it ravaged sentiment at all levels which is part of why the bear went all the way to 300 WMA which was my point. Dollar supremacy is in question with other countries trading with Yuan/gold conversions but I wouldn’t say it’s that much more uncertain than 2022 outside of the private credit situation.. WW3 talk was everywhere in 2022. Private credit imploding is very plausible though but all negative short term events have the same end result: massive stimulus in which BTC performs well.. I’ve also theorized in this upcoming stock crash bitcoin completely detaches from software correlation and absorbs some of the stock market (alongside other commodities). In your view what are odds that happens? Since you clearly follow BTC you are aware it is not a software stock and really shouldn’t correlate with it but does anyway. I’m not sure if this upcoming cycle will be when it happens but it WILL happen eventually once the masses figure out what it is and faith in dollar/traditional equities collapses.. factor in BTC front running stock crash and this idea becomes even more likely due to asymmetric returns.

Saffuran

1) My numbers are just literal factual breakdowns of prior cycles -- periods of weakness can be expressed in periods of time as well as in currency denominations, so I prefer to show both. 2) My main average bottom number is around $54,000 but I am more than open to BTC/Crypto going lower because it can, and because the macroeconomic picture outside of crypto is very bad right now. Things are - in general - much more uncertain and therefore higher risk right now than was the case during the late-2022/early-2023 bottom when the broader market was through the worst of COVID and more elements of the global economy were more stable. 3) As an extension of macroeconomics looking bad right now (BRENT oil spot price at $140 and rising, we likely see a price that is 20-25% higher before it peaks and high oil prices effect on the markets are slightly delayed and tend to drag on for months even after some normalization) -- there is a lot of evidence that Private Credit entities (Blue Owl, Apollo, Blackstone, Ares e.t.c.) are greatly overextended and any pullback in the credit markets are felt to a greater extend further down the risk curve. The combined effect of high oil and credit risk has greater potential to pull markets an extra leg down than FTX [which was fairly contained] was able to.

need-not-worry

Energy creates bitcoin, but bitcoins don't store energy. It can buy energy but so is any currency. Trying to make too strong a link between BTC and energy is cringy.

fredwhoisflatulent

Um. The 4% rule of thumb works because most retirements are 25-30 years. I don’t understand your logic. You say 335k in bitcoin is equivalent to 2500k. At 4% of 2500k that is a pre tax income of 100k. But to get 100k from 5 BTC, obviously I need to sell. So they go up 21k. But I still need to sell about 1.2 BTC to get the 100k. Now for year 2 of retirement I have 3.8 BTC… You run out of BTC very fast

Tebasaki

You talk of the 4% rule as in spending. Have you considered other users of BTC like leveraging it and then just living off the interest? Or was this only for the purposes of comparing investment strategy to the 4% rule?

NewHope13

Yup, low liquidity = low BTC price

Internet_is_tough

It thought me that BTC respects nothing except the 4 year cycles. Narratives don't matter, what's happening in the world doesn't matter, nothing matters. I suppose it will break at some point, but untill it does, we already know the next top is at 2029 and we got a 40-60% drawdown at 2030

juanano2

But we all know BTC is going a lot lower, why would anyone buy now?, there's a few years till the next bull run

Hot_Local_Boys_PDX

Worth a read: https://www.theqrl.org/blog/two-papers-just-changed-the-quantum-threat-conversation-heres-what-they-actually-say/#the-ethereum-analysis-nobody-is-talking-about To suggest pure-PQ chains “aren’t worth investing in”even as a hedge / flier because Ethereum might salvage something in five years (and seven forks) seems a bit silly given the size of the market and Ethereum’s undeniable coupling with BTC at present.

Financial_Vanilla_47

They should stay away from that when BTC crashes it'll even affect stablecoins that are mixed up with that trash 

ChanceCash6708

That's a good start. Why is youre target not 1 full BTC?

Bishaqs

Not buying BTC earlier

Opposite_Cold8616

How many people are capable of obtaining 5-10 BTC nowadays, much less 20?

Suguha_chan

I think this fud destroyed the 2025 bull run. BTC was going up until Google posted about their quantum computer at the start of 2025, from that point on bitcoin struggled gaining momentum and it behaved like its in a bear market

cryptogelix

Buying BTC at ~17,000$ in 2017 and not earlier after watching it climb up from 2500$

Suguha_chan

Its fud. BTC has the least problem. Quantum can only crack your transactions, not your btc that just are in your account and do nothing. Ethereum on the other hand can be fully cracked even without doing a transaction

rshacklef0rd

Falling for BTC private fomo and buying into ZCL at $100

tapmorz

crack it then, let it fall. I wanna buy 1BTC=1U$D🤣🤣

lukesmit695

Look into an exchange that does multisig custody. They hold a second set of private keys for you so if you lost yours, they would have a pair so you’ll still have access to your BTC. Way better that going to a fiat denominated proxy or keeping it on an exchange, banking they’ll never cease it or hold it from withdrawing. Unchained or Swan are 2 examples

Pristine_Explorer265

I was around when bitcoin was a few dollars, seen it on some boards thought it was hype, bought some when it was around 1k a BTC and sold them when it dropped. Should have just deleted my app and let them sit.

BitsBoy96

I bought BTC in 2013 and sold it at the first pump the market had.

szansky

you sell your 2BTC for example for $200K and you pay tax 19% from this 200K fiat = dolar, euro, pln, juan and so on

ThiccClient

with a Cold wallet you have the key and you and only you own the coin. if you keep your BTC on Coinbase and Coinbase says you can't have your coin or they shut down...there is little you can do. The common phrase is "not your key not your coin". Keeping coin on an exchange has some benefit but they do not out-way the benefit of self custody.

EdgeQuiet2199

The two-step thing got me too. Sat there wondering why I couldn't just send BTC to my bank account directly. Felt dumb after but nobody explains this stuff clearly.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Classic-Direction778 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sbczvy/were_in_peak_fear_territory_and_im_not_selling/ Fear & Greed sitting at 29(CMC data) and I'm not touching a single sat. BTC held through actual Middle East airstrikes rattling every risk asset on the planet. It dipped when the news broke, then recovered. That's strength, not weakness. What I'm currently watching: ETF inflows are still coming in steady, CLARITY Act is sitting at 72% odds on Polymarket with Senate markup expected mid-April, and the SEC and CFTC just formally classified XRP as a digital commodity last month alongside BTC and ETH. The regulatory clarity we've been waiting years for is literally arriving right now. AI tokens went from $14B to $19B market cap in a single month, with Bittensor up 67% and FET up 44%. That kind of rotation doesn't happen in a dead market. Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade is hitting in June and historically these have been major catalysts, so I'm not selling before that. While everyone's panic selling I took a loan using BTC as collalteral (good rates from nexo btw) and bought more. Fear is just a discount if you know how to use it. Held through all of 2022, not about to fold at a Fear index of 29. NFA. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

LiquidityCompass

First lesson: if u feel smart enough to trade BTC… u’re prob about to lose it 😅 Took me way too long to realize just holding beats trying to outplay the market

Classic-Direction778

Retail getting back in while BTC leads is something else. The people who positioned during the fear don't sell here. They borrow against the position through something like Nexo if they need liquidity and let it run.

jkl2035

Think it will be more an early to mid 2030 thing, but we have to Act now to be ready. BIP360 is there for BTC

ODD_Old_Dirty_Degen

"Terrence Howard said" checks out. This is the same guy who argued that 1x1 is 2. But yeah, quantum threat is real. But I do think BTC will upgrade before that.

ec265

Quantum is a viable threat to BTC Do I think BTC will upgrade to become quantum proof? Yes I do Do I think this prevents it being useless? No I do not

Rare_Rich6713

BTCFI isnt a platform, its literally a narrative giving BTC ability to stake and earn. Not everything is a shill.

mookbrenner

0.01864778 BTC

Odd_Bar9513

I will probably move it to my cold wallet soon. I waited first one of my older crapcoin stakes to finalize lol. (I am a BTC maxi now and have been for a while.)