BTC

Rude-Commission-1002

I’d take blue and buy BTC early, but honestly fixing a few terrible life decisions would probably be worth more to me than the money.

Lavayo

From everything I have heard yes. Although if this theory of the deliberate bug for later BTC theft holds true I would not trust the device either way. If the current location of your stack is good enough for a few weeks or so, I personally would set up a new wallet with dice on another hardware wallet (Bitbox, Trezor...) and add a passphrase. Double check if it works and transfer the stack for long term storage.

pqellowbory

Based on my own method, looking at supply and demand, I feel like the 60k range could already be a bottom area. There could still be a Spring down into the 50k range in the future, that's just my personal view. I'll keep DCAing consistently either way. Even if I'm wrong and BTC drops to 50k or even 40k, I'll still keep DCAing rather than going all-in at any specific price level.

mythormedicine

Right, but I think the idea is if instead of random useless hash problem we could switch the network to run AI. If that can happen, and I have no idea if this is feaible that would be a moon moment for BTC.

MigrationForever

If I wanted to brag I would have said what my full bonus was, not just the part I put into BTC.

Loafmanuk

I'd blue pill and sell Laszlo Hanyecz '3' pizzas for 10,000 BTC..

winphan

I would stick to BTC/ETH/SOL. Those actually have *low risk tolerance.*

Gigiw1ns

It also explains why they're so angry. There's a fundamental difference between people who have never invested, who have heard of BTC but aren't interested in it, and people who have been watching the chart every day for 10 years.

Gfran856

Wow, good to know if I ever wanted to hack you and find your wallet that you have exactly 4.3737644 BTC

Subject-Wrongdoer812

Posting this as a factual timeline with screenshots, not as an accusation draw your own conclusions. 1. BingX ran a promo giving me a Position Voucher: 200 USDT position value, max 5x leverage, position auto-closes after 24h, no fees, restricted to designated pairs (BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE, SOL, BNB, GBPAUD, DOWJONES, CADJPY). 2. I used the voucher as intended within the app's own rules opened a position on one of the listed pairs, no manual workaround or exploit, just used the feature the way it was presented. 3. Shortly after, my account got restricted. In-app notice cited "account anomaly" / unusual activity, with trading, bonus claims, new-user rewards, and event participation all blocked. [screenshot 1] 4. Got an email asking to reply with a video of myself holding my ID reading a specific script, to "lift the restriction." This came as a plain email reply request rather than through the in-app verification flow, so I did not respond to it directly. [screenshot 2] 5. Follow-up email confirmed: "earnings obtained through violations have been deducted (including: 16.59 USDT)," and some account functions remained restricted. [screenshot 3] 6. First withdrawal attempt (65.34 USDT) came back "Failed to pass review." [screenshot 4] 7. No open disputes remain I've since submitted an account deletion request.

Citizen_Kano

In 2010 I could buy 10 BTC for less than a Big Mac

Saffuran

If you are a beginner with low risk tolerance either sit in BTC or just sit in ETFs.

Rafellorenzo

With 4.37 BTC, the Lambo is possible long before $1M. The real challenge is not selling it all when Bitcoin hits $100K.

Fauked

Same. I would never show off the house and rental properties I bought, the lambos and ferrari's that I bought, the 1m USD in BTC I still have in my wallet, all the money I have sitting in my mattress at home(s). I would never go on the internet and tell people these things about me. Who would be that stupid am I right??

AlamoSimon

BTC is secure. The physical world is not.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Sad_Experience_2516 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ve7iqq/btc_is_testing_the_200week_moving_average/ BTC: \~$62.9K 200W MA: \~$63.8K Ratio: 0.99x Bitcoin is currently sitting around its 200-week moving average, one of the most watched long-term indicators in crypto. Historically, major cycle bottoms have formed around this zone. But history doesn’t guarantee repetition. In 2022, BTC spent months below the 200W MA before recovering, so this should be viewed as a zone rather than a perfect bottom signal. The question: Are we seeing long-term accumulation levels again, or is there still one more capitulation event ahead? Bull case: * 200W MA holds * sellers lose momentum * accumulation continues Bear case: * BTC loses this level * support turns into resistance * deeper correction follows Is the 200W MA still one of Bitcoin’s most reliable cycle indicators, or has the market structure changed? UPDATE： A few days later, BTC has moved back above the 200W MA. But after reading the comments here, I think the more interesting question isn’t whether this line “holds.” The sample size is tiny, we’ve only had a handful of meaningful 200W MA tests. So I’m starting to see it more as a zone than a bottom signal. What matters more is whether sellers are actually getting exhausted, and who’s absorbing that supply. This cycle also has a different market structure: spot ETFs, institutional flows, OTC desks, and deeper exchange liquidity weren’t really part of previous tests in the same way. I’ve been looking at the exchange side too. MEXC’s latest PoR showed BTC reserve coverage around 281%, vs. 269% previously. Obviously that doesn’t predict price, but it’s another reason I’m more interested in liquidity and where the actual buying capacity sits than in the MA itself. So the next test seems pretty simple: If BTC retests the 200W MA and holds it from above, the accumulation case gets stronger. If it loses the level again and turns it into resistance, the bear case is still alive. Maybe the 200W MA isn’t the signal. Maybe it’s just the zone where we find out whether real buyers show up. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

unvac

I don't have BTC from early investing; I purchased things with it... you don't see my showing off a balance for attention.

ChristianRauchenwald

I guess his point was, depending on the price tag of this BTC water heater it may be cheaper to buy a regular electric water heater + a separate BTC miner. Obv. in that case, the heat from BTC mining wouldn't heat your water, but if we then pick your "living in a really cold area" example, that could be used to heat the room itself.

unvac

That’s the problem with these people, their ego is shouting for attention. I’ve been a very early investor in BTC, bought my home and farm with it, but I’d never show off my holdings.

newuser34562

But 6 days ago you lost all of your 3.533382 BTC because of Coldcard hack….

Squeiner

Im sure thats true for you and no judgement here man, but we have different likes and interests, values, and priorities.  I like this stuff. I listen to podcasts about it when im in the car. I spend my off time reading about it. Im a nerd. You might say an amateur woodworker is way over complicating his life when he builds his own bookshelf at great cost in money, time and effort, instead of just getting a perfectly good free one from marketplace same-day, there are tons in there. But he likes doing it. His interest wasn't just to own a bookshelf, it was to build one, and to learn as much as possible while doing so. Of course there's an easier way, a prepackaged alternative, and I wouldn't discourage you from choosing that or judge you for it, by all means. But I like doing this. Im interested in doing my own thing, it brings me joy, and learning about it is engaging and entertaining and honestly thrilling much of the time. That's most of the reason im here, writing these long as comments. I love talking about it. I value self reliance. Handing over my money to some bank or brokerage for safekeeping because its easier than doing it myself is not a tradeoff I'm keen to make. I value autonomy. Asking blackrock or whoever to open an account for me and then to do this or that with my assets is odious to me when I can create my own keys and broadcast my own transactions without anyone else being involved at all. I value freedom. I much prefer having the ability to send any amount of my coins to anyone anywhere anytime for any reason than to be constrained in all those aspects by the arbitrary rules of an issuer.  We likely have similar ones, but my priorities include things that you probably don't care much about, though I couldn't say for sure, it just sounds like it. We both likely have wealth accumulation pretty close to the tippy top of our lists of priorities, and exposure to bitcoin's price appreciation is therefore something we both want. Your ETFs and my self custodied coins both serve that priority very effectively. But another item very high on my list of priorities is working towards the separation of money and state, and the transition to a global bitcoin standard. Holding BTC in self custody is how I serve these priorities. Holding an ETF is how you work against them. So again, no judgement to you man, by all means, get your ETFs and enjoy your life. This is how I enjoy mine.

DankShibe

Charts said BTC 150k 2025. And altcoin bull run like 2021. Nothing happened

Kayjagx

Of course blue pill, would buy 1000BTC.

eckstuhc

I wonder if this is going to be any good or just a gimmick idea… like I’m willing to bet $2,000 gets you a poor performance water heater and a slow BTC miner….

Arphinator

My account in Kraken was, 2018. Police was laughing. Kraken was laughing. A few BTC was gone.

quintavious_danilo

True! When the news broke BTC went down \~3% but recovered quickly. Any weakness get bought up immediately because we’re in a bear market and a lot of people have set limit orders in order to catch the bottom. Any bad news- unless it’s a catastrophic black swan event - is simply going to get bought up. I know I did buy some when the news broke.

quintavious_danilo

BTC already sustained losses/hacks in the **multi billions**. A few millions mean nothing.

Quirky-Reveal-1669

Blue pill. And buy >10BTC.

DiamondHandsDarrell

BTC absorbed a ridiculous amount of bad news this year: war, the oil shock, a hawkish Fed, 5%+ long bonds, record ETF outflows, Strategy selling below cost, and massive capital flowing into AI, semiconductors and related infrastructure. Yet it held the range. Now oil is substantially lower, long yields are easing, the dollar is softer, rate hike expectations are coming down, ETF inflows are starting to return, and BTC is still sitting around the mid-$60Ks. That doesn’t mean it’s about to moon, and it’s not investment advice. It just means the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative doesn’t really match what the market has actually absorbed. It survived almost everything that should have crushed it. Now the interesting question is what happens if some of those headwinds finally start turning into tailwinds.

Lavayo

The longer we hold that 64k I think we won't drop THAT far lower (sub 40k). Maybe we see 50k, maybe we wick below it. The last two weeks were absolutely abysmal for BTC but the price held.

Interesting-Cry-3305

I’ve found the same thing once an allocation hits a comfortable level, diversification starts making more sense. I still keep an eye on BTC moves, though, and platforms like BTCC are useful when I want to trade short-term volatility without changing my long-term holdings.

Original-Truck4749

It is also a well known psychological phenomena that people really dont have a good intuition of low probability events occuring. I did statistical modelling of BTC returns over monthly horizons, and the chance of extreme moves happening (lets say +-15% or more in a month) is always underpriced on polymarket. I think it is because most people think that they can get away with collecting a few 90% wins in a row, but underestimate the chance of a big volatility spike that can wipe out many small consequtive gains in a matter of days. No free lunch unfortunately.

EliteTechUniversity

Isn’t that the point of BTC was the lack of any governance from any one country.

Mission_Finding_7038

There've been a few periods like this over the past month, on the weekends. Traders have moved elsewhere and the institutions are off for the weekend. Interest in BTC is currently low, but sellers are already exhausted.

Acolyte_of_Swole

And we all hope for someone to be there to help us when there's a catastrophic event in our lives, which is exactly why people give their money to banks and other financial institutions. Or buy insurance. BTC is by definition barely regulated, not insured, with even the ownership unsure at times. It has no fixed price. No ceiling but also no floor. Its value is weighted purely in fiat conversion at this time. Outside of illegal purchases, there is little one can do with it if you live in a first-world country. The coldcard thing should have been a wake up call to many people. What makes the coldcard thieves "not the real owners"? Bitcoin is not subject to any oversight. When thieves rob a bank, the US Government gets involved because the US government is backing the Dollar. Is Satoshi gonna hire hitmen for me if I lose my BTC?

hodler_privado

Welcome! Reading the white paper first is actually a great start. **1. Wallet:** For mobile, start with **Muun** (very beginner-friendly, on-chain + Lightning) or **Blue Wallet**. No KYC, no account. For long term, a hardware wallet (Jade or Trezor) once you have a meaningful amount. **2. Buying P2P:** **Bisq** is the most private (decentralized, no KYC, desktop app). **Hodl Hodl** is another option. Expect slightly higher premiums than exchanges — that's the price of privacy. **3. Fees:** Wallets themselves don't charge fees. You pay network fees (miners) when you send on-chain — varies by congestion. Lightning transactions are near-zero. **4. What I wish I'd known:** Track your purchases from day one. Even a simple log of date / amount spent / BTC received lets you calculate your real average cost over time — which is the number that actually matters, not what you paid for your first coin. I built a free tool for exactly this: **DCA Bitcoin Pro** (dcabitcoinpro.net) — no account, runs in your browser.

cdeussen

I don’t think it will ever reach 6 figures again. I can make 50% gains monthly, sometimes daily or weekly with SPY futures, so I think investors will move steadily away from BTC. You used to make good money with little risk. Now, there is a real risk of losing money and returns occur over a much longer period. AI is a better investment. Soon another sector will replace AI. BTC had its day and it was great, but it’s over. Kind of like people still holding GameStop thinking it will rocket again. It won’t.

Janezhang1324

I think timing the market is very difficult, especially with crypto because volatility is high. Personally, I would focus more on understanding the technology, the use case, and risk management rather than only looking at price drops. Curious what others think — are you looking at BTC only, or also researching other projects?

Janezhang1324

Losing 2 BTC after holding for 8 years must be incredibly painful. It’s not just the financial loss, but also the emotional impact after believing in something for so long. I think this is also a reminder that security and risk management are just as important as choosing the right asset. Hope you find the strength to rebuild

ProudPop7063

Ok, if i find someone that i trust to get my first BTC (a girlfriend for ex.), how should i proceed? Why everyone use BINANCE, it's not being anon one of the biggest benefits of blockchain? Maybe I'm getting it wrong and actually BINANCE is amazing, idk 

JimmySki6166

The way I look at it, I purchase $1000 of BTC weekly and did when it was 40k, 70k and 120k. And will continue to do so, and will talk about it when it’s at 250k in a few years!

Strong-Al

I have recourse with other things. I'm shit out of luck if someone breaks the piggy bank of BTC

jhorns03

Apparently Oct 26th. In reality, it’s a spot on a chart that, in retrospect, we all say we should’ve sold a kidney to ape in. The “traders” who do astrology charts for men will say it was plainly obvious and that everyone should’ve listened. These people have 0.3 BTC and act as though they are authoritative. DCA and embrace the pain of the lows. Then tell everyone who says you were lucky to buy the bottom to STFU.

kpooo7

I have had my BTC investment in Grayscale GBTC at Fidelity since 2021, always hearing no keys not your Bitcoin. After the FTX shit show and now this hack, sucks for people. I still have my investment and I only have to worry about the market!

Legitimate-Client-75

When your post is titled “Bitcoin maxi reconsidering self custody” and you end the post with “I decided to put money into the fiat system again” it would imply you sold a portion of bitcoin yes. My mind did not jump to “this guy is obviously keeping all his BTC and is just buying stocks with his income that already exists in the fiat system but is also moving it back “into the fiat system”.

DantehSparda

Bro Bitcoin is literally magic imaginary money, like wtf is even the delusion here 🤣 I ger having like 5-10% if your portfolio in BTC, but it’s a speculative asser which may very well not exist in 20 years. I think the ideal safe portfolio is like 90% stocks (funds, etc) and 10% between liquid cash and bitcoin.

Possible-Mud-1380

At this point, why BTC? Insurance, investment banks, etc. it's all the old stuff that it was meant to circumvent. Is there still a point?

Impossible-Leg-5701

BTC Is close to ath? Lol

Optionbulls

99% + of peoples BTC weren’t stolen

Possible-Mud-1380

Let's say the us government decide to store BTC the way they store gold. I 100% trust that the gold will not be stolen overnight. They can physically protect it. I don't necessarily trust that they can protect their own BTC.

Firm_Yogurtcloset835

First of all, I am very sorry for your loss; I wish your father a speedy recovery and hope everything is well with you, your daughter, and your family. Thank you for sharing your stories and thoughts. Regarding some of the replies you received: it is very easy—after the milk has already spilled—to point fingers and say you should have stayed close while it was boiling (without showing any empathy or understanding the full context of why you were away from the stove at that moment). To be realistic, hardware wallets have helped with BTC adoption, and it is highly hypocritical for anyone to say things like "it was just the dice roll" or "it was just the passphrase." If not for that extremely serious and fundamental developer error in the code (which warrants an investigation into whether it was truly just a mistake), this topic wouldn't even exist—regardless of dice rolls or passphrases—because the entropy would have met current security standards. True Bitcoin holders and members of the Bitcoin community would never accuse or blame the victim in a situation like this. To the "adventurers" and know-it-alls: I wish you no ill will, but I do ask that you rethink your values ​​and your outlook on life. Blaming the victims in this case is unacceptable. The company had a mission when selling its product; the single most important aspect of a hardware wallet is seed generation, and that has absolutely nothing to do with dice rolls... again, if the code had been correct, we wouldn't be here discussing this topic. It was a basic, grotesque, and incompetent error—setting a variable to zero in the code... it makes me choke with anger just writing about it. It needs to be investigated. I will pray that "white hat" hackers manage to return at least a portion of the funds, and that the company is held accountable and reimburses all the victims. Take care.

Madeiran_Billionaire

Investes só em BTC?

iloverunning11

I am not saying people understand BTC, I am just saying it was extremely easy to buy it even in 2021 and you could see ads everywhere including the SB.. So it's definitely reality whether you like it or not

Immediate-Country739

it definitely marked the end of an era where the usecase of tokens represented vehicles for insiders / vcs / teams to cash out without their protocols ever finding pmf. keep in mind memecoin dominance happened towards the tail end of the cycle where more sophisticated traders had already realised most protocols / narratives were too fragmented (and had horrible supply overhangs / unlocks). so instead they started putting money into shorter term illiquid pairs like memes. simple narratives w no future supply hanging over them etc. in that sense the trump coin was almost the final symbolic extraction event in an industry which had basically become existing capital pvping other on retarded memecoins in the absence of any innovation (anything that had been funded like L2s AI was arguably worse because they larped about building something honest while they were OTC millions on the side, the memes were at least honest in that they were simply dogshit tokens). did that have a negative effect on bitcoin? your brother is basically right there. btc is pretty much the antithesis of memecoins (and definitely the antithesis of the president's memecoin). what trump did wrt extracting value from his own coin has nothing to do with btc mechanically. there are obviously unfulfilled promises (btc reserve etc), but who knows what would've happened if the dems stayed in charge either. also trump was the reason for most of the move to the upside in he first place, during the election his polymarket odds were correlated almost 1:1 with btc. at points you could almost replicate the btc move by just buying trump yes on polymarket. if you are curious why BTC in particular is going down rather than finger pointing, it would probably benefit you to understand the situation of Michael Saylor's Strategy and his STRC obligations and quantum risks rather than pointing fingers towards your brother and taking victory laps. also the idea that trump stole from millions of investors is laughable. people buying into memecoins, much more so trump (notorious grifter), at multi billion dollar marketcaps are not investors, and if they consider them such its probably he did them a favour by taking their money right then and there rather than letting them bleed dry over years. i also dont know why i typed all this out. looking at your post you are definitely someone with black/white glasses and basically no view of finance / crypto , and now after historically bad price action validating that view coming here to farm some trump = bad karma on reddit. retard

iloverunning11

Already in 2021 everyone's grandma owned BTC

Sweaty_Camel_118

Im not sure if id be willing to buy into a btc etf rather than buy BTC to self custody, but it sounds good right now with all of these thefts and AI capabilites.

YellowRobeSmith

Happy to help, I recently sold all of my BTC from my wallet and moved it to the Fidelity FBTC ETF so had to follow those same steps.

AccomplishedCheck895

Except you cannot use BTC to buy that burger, which was one of the original ‘features’ sold about BTC (it being a “currency”)

YellowRobeSmith

Depends really. If you aren't planning using BTC for buying things on a routine basis, then an ETF is fine for most. Especially for those who have no idea how to be their own bank.

True-Lychee

It cemented the reputation of memecoins/shitcoins, but I think the impact on BTC, Eth etc is not catastrophic.

WeCanTripleIt

TL; DR. Just buy actual BTC on Fidelity and not worry about all this

GloryIV

Moved everything out of my self-custody wallets and into a Fidelity Crypto account. If I can trust them with my entire retirement savings, I think I can trust them with some BTC and if I'm going to outsource my security to a 3rd party, I trust them \*way\* more than any of the exchanges.

Arphinator

It’s for a private key for a public key that holds BTC, a wallet you know that isn’t zero.

VarsityCop

Same here. Have my sell orders set around previous ATH’s for both BTC and ETH. Can’t wait to wipe my hands fully clean and transition to 100% VOO/VGT

DragonZeku

Sometimes I think I should just put up a website called Give Me Your Money that is just this without the scam. My page would just say: "This is not a scam, I am being honest and forthcoming about my intent to rob you. Enter your seed phrase below and I will steal your BTC immediately." And I bet I would still make money from it.

Sector__7

WOW, OP lost all of their 3.5 bitcoin just 5 days ago and within that time was able to buy 1.1 BTC. I wonder what OP does where they make $”\~$72K net in only 5 days??? /s

Deterministic-random

wow, mate! You also lost 3.5 BTC in a cold card hack. Your friend miraculously found the hacker's IP address & you warned cold card about the randomness thing 3 years earlier!!! [https://files.catbox.moe/iq1s60.png](https://files.catbox.moe/iq1s60.png)

ubermensch1001

This is last part you mentioned with complaints about Coinkite going back to 2021 is EXACTLY what I've been talking about that the other poster was completely ignoring. I've been trying to find it to link it, but this past weekend there was a youtuber with a video from late 2021 or so talking about this that was getting a ton of attention after the Cold Card hack. As you said, the company would have heard about this AND ignored it. I'm expecting there to be a lot with this case coming out over the next several months, so it will be interesting. As for my comments about the masses not utilizing self custody, I still stand by that. I'm not saying people should or should not rely on tradfi institutions for their crypto holdings, but the reality is that when this starts becoming more mainstream and regulated this is going to happen naturally. You are going to have a bunch of people at say Charles Schwab or whatever institution with investment portfolios and they are advised to allocate x% into a BTC ETF. That's exactly what's going to happen, doesn't matter if you or I agree with it or not. The reality is that there is a risk with self custody, and the biggest and most common risk is people screwing up the process somehow to where they get locked out of their funds, lose their seeds or expose them to the internet. There are plenty of stories you can find across the internet about this where someone downloads a fake app that asks for them to type in their seeds or where they kept their seeds on a file of some sort on their phone or computer. Again, I'm not saying that people should avoid self custody and utilize tradfi institutions for their holdings, but the reality is that most will go this route. In fact, especially after this Cold Card incident. This Cold Card hack while awful only affected a very tiny number of actual wallets/addresses, but the biggest ramifications of this is people being scared away from self custody and questioning their security measures. Even I've been reflecting upon this and thinking about getting a 3rd wallet and either utilizing a very strong passphrase or even taking the time to learn how to use multi sig. I used to see a simple passphrase as a measure to take in case someone were to get a physical copy of my actual keys/seeds, which would be difficult in itself, but after this Cold Card incident it's made me reevaluate.

ChipNDipPlus

I have a coldcard, but used dice. Nothing was stolen from me. Leave alone multisig. I understand not everyone wants to do the work properly, but putting the 1 BTC on a hot wallet is just stupid. Any malware can easily find it. The responsibility is proportional to the amount. Holding $70000 on a hot wallet is stupid. Holding $70000 without multisig is also stupid. Being your own bank isn't easy.

SpyMasterUSA

Man, I'm sorry. Three BTC isn't some lesson you shrug off and move on from, especially when it represents years of putting $250 away every single week. What makes this particularly brutal is that you were trying to do the responsible thing. You didn't leave your coins sitting on some sketchy exchange chasing yield. You bought a hardware wallet with a strong reputation, moved everything to cold storage and left it alone. That's exactly what people in the Bitcoin community have been telling everyone to do for years. Before you accept that this was definitely a Coldcard vulnerability, though, I would want to know exactly what happened. Where did you buy the Coldcard? Did you generate the seed entirely on the device? Was the seed ever typed into a computer or phone, photographed, stored digitally, or entered into any other wallet? And can you post the transaction ID/address showing when the BTC moved? Not because I don't believe you. If there's actually an exploitable Coldcard vulnerability draining wallets, those details could help determine whether other people are at risk. If there isn't, figuring out exactly how your keys were compromised is equally important. And don't beat yourself up with the “I should've just left it on Coinbase” thing yet. You followed what was widely considered good security practice. First figure out exactly what happened. I can't imagine opening a wallet after years of disciplined saving and seeing 3+ BTC gone. That's devastating.

Ok_Pipe6417

So many things happening in the BTC world. Nothing good however. 

Blade_Runner_69

Yep 100% co ordinated FUD. It's so pathetic these no life losers spend so much time crying about BTC!

ChipNDipPlus

1.1 BTC in Exodus??? Wtf is the matter with you? A hardware wallet costs like $50!

Intrinsic-Disorder

Sounds strange but keeping 1.1 BTC in a hotwallet is asking for trouble imo.

MrCalabunga

I mean, I thought this was obvious? Just take a look at the charts around and after his meme coins came out. BTC was at an ATH, ETH was hovering around $3,500, then about a week or two after $TRUMP launches crypto starts receding and has yet to recover? What a weird coincidence.

didnt_hodl

ColdCard customers did exactly that, they kept their private key safe. Yet, they lost their BTC When you are free and sovereign it also means that you are on your own when you lose your keys, when your keys are stolen or when your keys are taken from you by force. Big banks like Fidelity and others would have many protections, enabling you to delay, stop or reverse the unauthorized transactions. And in the end, it is not like you will be using your BTC as "money", no one accepts it. You will be forced to sell it and use a bank to keep your fiat. So you will end up needing a bank anyway

Hissykittykat

Oh so now security is more important than convenience? The concept of a hardware wallet putting all of your BTC behind one key is fundamentally flawed. But it's convenient, until it gets hacked. A hardware wallet should be considered a hot wallet, not cold storage. Proper cold storage keeps all your bitcoin keys independent so the risk of losing them all at once is mitigated.

DifficultSquash1517

I'm an OG here since 2016, and I do the same thing every cycle average out and then average back in My averaging back in has been much lower dollar amounts than the past cycles Not only is it a maturing asset with less returns going forward. I also feel like too many people think they have figured out the cycle by now and all they have to do is go full port BTC and they're going to triple their money in the next cycle 🤷 Markets never take your plan into consideration. I just calmly average back in and write covered calls on my ibit holdings and if it stays flat forever that's amazing to get 2% a month on am asset

7chickenwings

Well you got to your goal and BTC isn't making headlines right now so yeah you're mentally switched off.

DrGrungy

Regulation isn't here yet. Meaning no major financial institutions with all the fancy API yet! If you're paying attention Ripple is getting ready for just that. XRP all the way. It isn't BTC

pjb1999

Next ATH I'm selling at least 50% of my BTC. Probably close to 75%.

Klutzy-Sea-4857

Both are right, to be honest. Hurt sentiment overall, but BTC fundamentals remain unchanged.

KeyPerformance2810

Its always the people with these weird fucking vigilante fantasies that think their BTC is safe if they have a kitchen knife hidden under their pillow. Its really gringy they think professional criminals who do kidnappings would be stopped by a single shotgun or some weird fucking ninja skills these dreamer always think they have.

PheelGoodInc

Timing the market, especially with BTC, rarely works. DCA all the way up and all the way down.

Special-Rub-5694

I actually think the internet analogy supports my point. Mass adoption didn’t happen because everyone eventually learned TCP/IP, DNS and SMTP. It happened because normal people stopped needing to understand any of that. My criticism isn’t that Bitcoin is new or technically complex. It’s that whenever a trusted abstraction fails, the response seems to be: “well, you should have gone one layer deeper yourself. and no trust is this how it is” First it was “use a hardware wallet, and not on exchanges.” Then “not your keys, not your coins.” Now after failures in hardware-wallet assumptions, it becomes “generate your own entropy with dice.” But even then you’re still trusting the software that converts that entropy, derives the seed, derives keys, signs transactions and displays addresses. At some point “just verify one more layer yourself” stops being a serious mass-adoption answer. But that begs the point if people even want mass adoption for BTC. Hardware wallets are supposed to make secure self-custody practical without requiring ordinary holders to become cryptographic engineers. If their core security assumptions fail, that is a real problem worth acknowledging rather than retroactively blaming users for not rolling dice.

ponylover666

To buy drugs or kiddie porn, finance Jihadis or seperatist/rebel movements, hire hitmen or prostitutes. There are "legitimate" uses to BTC besides get rich quick!

Scared-Permit2587

I was continuously called a moron by some of my BTC "friends" for buying one of the BTC ETFs instead of self custody. Since it tracks the price of BTC exactly, if BTC were ever to go to the moon, the ETF would track identically. I don't self custody my stock certificates either or self custody cash under the mattress. Perhaps all the BTC self custody maximalists owe people that wanted to participate in BTC via the ETFs an apology.

DrGrungy

Who's buying BTC. That's foolish! Just buy XRP instead, it's going to outperforme BTC by a long shot.

Important_Neck_2122

Anytime is a good time to purchase BTC!! In the next few years, it will be above 100K, so it's at a discount right now. I purchase on Coinbase and Moomoo weekly, and I move into my cold wallet once per month. Very easy to use, once you get accustomed to it. But always check every # and letter on your address before sending to and from your wallet. Once you hit send, if one digit is inaccurate, it's gone and you'll never recover it!! Good luck!

justcurious3287

This. The market is SO horrible, has been the last two years, that I find myself just holding my BTC and buying SCHD. For my own mental health.

Useful_Calendar_6274

Yeah it was never a long term good idea. I was holding out hope it wuold become legal tender like in El Salvador in more places, then ultimately the bucket stops at the central bank if they lose all their BTC by hack, incompetence or whatever. I hate central banks too but they do stop bank runs.

DiamondHandsDarrell

BTC absorbed a ridiculous amount of bad news this year: war, the oil shock, a hawkish Fed, 5%+ long bonds, record ETF outflows, Strategy selling below cost, and massive capital flowing into AI, semiconductors and related infrastructure. Yet it held the range. Now oil is substantially lower, long yields are easing, the dollar is softer, rate hike expectations are coming down, ETF inflows are starting to return, and BTC is still sitting around the mid-$60Ks. That doesn’t mean it’s about to moon, and it’s not investment advice. It just means the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative doesn’t really match what the market has actually absorbed. It survived almost everything that should have crushed it. Now the interesting question is what happens if some of those headwinds finally start turning into tailwinds.

DiamondHandsDarrell

BTC absorbed a ridiculous amount of bad news this year: war, the oil shock, a hawkish Fed, 5%+ long bonds, record ETF outflows, Strategy selling below cost, and massive capital flowing into AI, semiconductors and related infrastructure. Yet it held the range. Now oil is substantially lower, long yields are easing, the dollar is softer, rate hike expectations are coming down, ETF inflows are starting to return, and BTC is still sitting around the mid-$60Ks. That doesn’t mean it’s about to moon, and it’s not investment advice. It just means the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative doesn’t really match what the market has actually absorbed. It survived almost everything that should have crushed it. Now the interesting question is what happens if some of those headwinds finally start turning into tailwinds.

tenor_tymir

Are they real BTC or an ETF? Can you withdraw your coins any time? What insurance (law?) covers digital assets like BTC?

tekmiester

Interesting you didn't even consider the Euro. But no, the energy usage, the delays in clearing transactions, the volitility, market manipulation, and the lack of accountability make BTC an impossible choice.

Effective_Engine319

Options I can see in that scenario: 1. All countries trust and/or fear China and they get the reserve status 2. Global trade fragments into 3-4 segments with a few different reserve currencies. 3. Global trust and cooperation is low and everyone is forced to use a neutral currency like BTC.

unknowngloomth

Yeah now that BTC is mainstream and is going through adoption. Its rois will be low and or insignificant for retails and that's why alts is a thing. But it doesn't mean alts will thrive the way BTC did. But still...

DV_Zero_One

People get paid to make educated guesses for this kind of thing. There is a lot of historical data and anecdotes describing how asset bubbles deflate. I work alongside a Crypto desk (I trade rate swaps and FX derivs for a bank in London) and last year they told me BTC would halve in value. Currently they are telling me it will halve again at half the prevailing speed. Between the 3 staff on the desk there are about 7; degrees and 2 doctorates. In December this desk will probably have an $20m performance bonus pot to divide between the 3 of them.

Zestyclose_Ad2462

Here's my take on self-custody: You should have some BTC in a hardware wallet, but only a small amount (say, 10%). The important part isn't how much is there, it's that you've built it should you ever really need it. Keep another 10% on a reputable exchange, 40% in an ETF using one custodian and 40% in another ETF using a different custodian. Presto - 80% of your BTC now enjoys institutional grade security. The .20 or .25 expense ratio you pay every year is money well spent IMO. Especially if you're no programmer/cyber-whiz. We are not there yet insofar as cold wallets. BTC itself takes a LOT of self-education and a cold wallet takes even more. Unless and until there's some recourse for a mistake, hack or coding error, self-custody will remain a fringe activity. We need better tools.

_alwin

I’m too European for this analysis. As if all U.S. events steer the BTC-market.