BTC

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RaccoonStreet351

It isn't practical to just have blind faith and say "BTC is the exit strategy - diamond haaaands" BTC and Blockchain is cool tech, but it's also a plaything for whales and adoption is not a certainty. It has underperformed against many markets. Yes it will likely come back one day - but blind faith cab easily pass for ignorance. "Buy only what you can afford to lose" is the only sensible mantra.

vegaskid2323

Im on strike and Buy 20$ a Day! No matter the price of the day! No Fees! After 1st 250$ bought. Maybe it's 500$ now but I already had like .3 BTC but now after like 6 months Im getting up there! Think about it. You can Buy like 5$ a Day. Wont even notice it. Max is whatever you want. I also bought an extra 45$ Spot purchase at 73,000$ didn't even realize I set it up. Lol. Strike is stacking Sats, then transfer to Ledger or coin base whenever you want! Or whatever wallet.

noviwu97

Almost everything mentioned here. I wouldn't go past BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE if you're a newbie

robertorgg

Thank you, every opinion matters, I’m a noob so I need to learn. So in your opinion HYPERLIQUID is a good ALT but you’ll buy in some months when BTC will arrive at 50-60k right ? Can you name some good ALTS (I can start to do my own research) and some ALT that are a Reddit “scam” (that are very talked on Reddit but they are not good) ? It would be very helpful for me 🙏🏻

Spitipoti

You're so deep in it you don't even understand other people's answers. I was answering to your question: "What would be the point of controlling a currency you just destroyed the value and trust of?". If someone was actually able to double spend coins, he would short BTC before the double spend and he would print by shorting, because the price would freefall. Is it that hard to grasp?

rzrinvest

Who is this "you" you're referring to? I haven't made any of those arguments. I'm just saying the argument that BTC is going to zero because it's a made up currency based on nothing is extremely lazy. Nearly all currencies only have value because people say they have value. Many of the critiques of BTC are also critiques of fiat currency. There are also valid critiques of fiat currency that aren't true of BTC (e.g., theoretically unlimited supply of USD). Valid critiqus of BTC as a currency are that transactions can be slow and costly, it's takes a lot of energy, etc.

_BindersFullOfWomen_

For how much he’s made, I’d setup a company in Germany to “own” the BTC

Legitimate_Cry_5194

If you want to invest buy BTC. If you want to gamble buy alts or go to the casino. Of course it's great to DCA during the bear. But do it in a range you consider that it's in the lower end of the bear prices. Don't set your aim too low, you might miss the train. On the other hand i remember lot's of guys, where they saw 60,50,40,30 as good entry points, BTC fell to 16K though. Of course, 30 and 40 weren't bad entry points in hindsight, but those that bought at 20, like me, made x2 the profits those that bought at 40 did.

Dmarine999

This comment hits home. People, myself included, sometimes fantasize about getting in when BTC was $5. I 100% would have sold if it 100x to $500... I think most would have.

Usually_Sunny

Yes but that's a bug not a feature. And a double digit fluctuation in a currency is an economic disaster. You're promoting BTC as a useful currency but you want to bring massive returns on the investment market. You don't see how ridiculous that is? Why would anyone (other than criminals who want to hide their transactions) buy goods or services with a currency if it's going to increase by double digits?

OBXAngler15

My average price is 25k so this is nothing but my altcoins are obliterated. I sold my last altcoin at my average price to mitigate risk and buy BTC lower. This cycle is slowly turning me into a BTC maxi…

omg_its_dan

Calculate the BTC price percentage gain and multiply that by the amount you invested. Eg if BTC goes up 10% you’re up $700.

Impossible-Weight852

People are panicking because they have more than a $50 stack. Also, BTC is NOT going to 500K in 2028. Not even half that. You’re living in the past.

K42st

I’ll show you so you can go away with your pointless arguments you’ve cherry picked from YouTube content and lame news articles like most people on Reddit. The Word Mnav has to be taken in context you have not go a CLUE about the context that’s why you beleive what you’ve read, you have already shown you are clueless to how Stratagy runs its BTC purchasing model because if you had any idea you wouldn’t still be here argueing this silly Mnav narrative. 1. Bitcoin collapses 2. Debt refinancing becomes impossible 3. Cash flow can’t service interest These three senarios only are when Mnav under 1 matter to Stategy NONE of which are pertinent under the current situation. It’s embarrassing listening to someone who is ill prepared has little to know understanding of the subjects they are talking about and questioning one of the smartest minds in business that is Micheal Saylor. Even with all the fuel I’ve given you to show you the truth you’ll still beleive the FUD simply because Doom stories sound better than reality that’s how kids see the world. Plus not a debate I’d ever want with you but so what id Stategy sold BTC, it would be handled OTC it wouldn’t touch exchanges unless is small batches it would have very little impact on price and for every buyer there would be a seller, whales and institutions, Hedge funds, family offices and high net worth individuals would be directly paired with such selling soaking up cheaper BTC so its sell impact would mean nothing. Markets don’t blow up they go down until sellers are exhausted where inventory is cheap and attractive for buyers then the price goes back up, this is how markets work they always have and always will you’ll become a new person one day when the penny drops but in your case it may take a lot longer than some. Good day.

BigBigMooney

You can sell assets that haven’t crashed 30% for more BTC allocation

MichaelSquare

Can anyone speak on the mining game? I have to think we're at or below the mining hurdle price and I dont believe BTC has ever sat below there long. It does call into question if it matters with so much more mined now.

CompetitiveAppeal663

Months ago I decided to stop DCAing when my stack hit a certain level. I hit that level, but with the current sale price, I have changed my plans and will continue to DCA beyond my original goal….at least until BTC is not longer such an attractive buy.

Crypto_craps

I bought a big amount very close to the ATH in 2021, it went up slightly then I was red for a few years. It may be a long road but I firmly believe BTC will be huge in the long term (5-10 years). Just hang on and try to stop checking price constantly.

RoyalMushroom6202

Assuming you don’t need the cash, HODL. Continues to DCA if you can even a small amount of your income. If you’re going to buy the dips, wait for more than a 1-2% drop. That’s just a hiccup in BTC terms.

Savik519

Purchase amount divided by purchase price = total bitcoin purchased $7000/$107,000= 0.0654 BTC Now multiple .0654 by whatever future price you predict .0654 \* $130,000 =$8,502.00 Difference between future prediction and purchase price is gain. $8,502 - $7,000 =$1,502 gain

Fun-Sundae4060

Idiots do root for losses… there’s a lot of them here. Nobody here even has the common sense to SHORT something going down? You can make money on the downturn instead of sitting and waiting in a sea of red for the next year until 4 years later you finally get a return. I’ve already made like $80k on BITI and MSTZ in the past month just sitting on short positions. Yes, I still am hugely bullish on BTC long term. Last year I was holding nearly $600k worth of 2x leveraged BTC in the form of BITX. You don’t have to sit and wait around all year in a losing long position guys.

No_Giraffe_4647

The only trouble is that while coins are dropping in value at same time the FIAT currency is devaluating you lose in fact twice more. For example a 75K BTC today worth 60K BTC few years ago. So you need to factor this as well in your “price predictions”

Mauer_Bluemchen

The past is just the past, and it seems more and morey unlikely that BTC will deliver similar gains again as in the past.

DigitalCommando

If I was in your position, I would lower my cost basis using Dynamic Dollar Cost Averaging. Set a normal DCA amount and frequency I am comfortable with. Then I create a war-chest with an amount equivalent to 4-6 months worth of my DCA amount. My war-chest should be kept in an interest accruing account. Now when Bitcoin fiat price drops 10%, I do a one-time BTC purchase of double my normal DCA amount out of my war-chest. If it drops 20%, I triple it, drops 30%, quadruple, etc. This is what I would do if I were you. Stay strong, keep your emotions in check and hodl. Godspeed and best of luck!

NoCapCrypto

"Solid analysis. The 200-week SMA has indeed been the 'holy grail' for BTC bottoms historically. However, with the recent influx of institutional money and ETFs, do you think we might see a front-running of this level? We've seen 'wick-downs' below it before, but staying above it might be the new signal of maturity for the market."

Rickard403

Everyone always says hold. I personally might sell with the intention to buy in at a lower price. Plenty are calling for $50k or lower BTC. If you sold ($2k in cash) and bought at say $40k, you'd have .05 BTC. It's risky, but if you save $$ and then dump it all at once you could amass a nice amount of BTC. Just my take. (Also you can write off the loss on your taxes)

Buddhava

You should have just paid the money into BTC rather than paying off loans with interest. Why borrow when you could just buy monthly with that payment money? DCA Would you have done worse or better?

WIRED_REFLEX

In the year 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto had a vision. It wasn't about decentralization, fighting inflation, or bank-free peer-to-peer lending. It was much simpler: Satoshi just really, really loved long strings of numbers after a decimal point. "Cents are for amateurs," Satoshi muttered, staring at a $4.50 coffee. "Two decimal places? How quaint. I want to pay for this latte using 0.00010432 of something. I want the barista to sweat. I want the receipt to look like a corrupted Excel spreadsheet." And so, Bitcoin was born—the only currency designed to make you feel like you’re doing high-level calculus just to buy a sandwich. Satoshi’s dream was a world where a "cheap" pizza costs 0.00054 BTC, but by the time you finish typing the zeroes, it costs 0.00061 BTC. Today, the legacy lives on. While the world asks, "What is the price of Bitcoin?" the true believers are still out there, squinting at their screens, counting the zeroes after the decimal point, and whispering, "Finally... I can pay for this pack of gum with 0.00000084 of a coin. Just as the math gods intended."

Cautious-Lecture-858

BTC has fallen +40% from its ATH. In the most literal way possible: this is a bear market.

kevindlv

If you're buying BTC right now with the assumption that you need a positive return from it in a year then you're out of your fucking mind lol. BTC is not a short term investment. Buy a t-bill if you need a positive return after a year.

More_Ad3831

So you say you don't buy near ATH but this doesn't make any sense. Yesterday ISM hit over 50 Levels (is a monthly indicator of U.S. economic activity) that means BTC can rise without stop because there is so much financial support- Liquidity that you cant have that type of criteria in this difficult market regime. In my opinion create your system that can make decisions over your bias.

Long_Struggle_9094

If you watch the world economic forum that happened almost two weeks ago you’ll see bankers talking out against crypto. You can look at BTC stock and watch it plummet since the very beginning of Davos. Banks are probably waging war.

Seattleman1955

When it come down to it, it's a philosophical asset more than a financial asset. Most of the "believers" aren't that well versed in economics or finance. Since the end of 2021 QQQ has had better returns. BTC was supposed to be Gold 2.0 but gold did well last year, BTC did not. The US government isn't never going to give up monetary control to Bitcoin) or anything else. BTC can coexist along with the dollar but as a debasement hedge, Gold and stocks do that as well. At this point, BTC is more of a trading instrument due to its volatility. If you want to hold long term, it's less and less suitable for that. In the early days you could justify just holding because it was growing so fast. Now it's large enough that growth slows down but it's still volatile. Even if you break even in 4 years, that's just in nominal terms. Factor in 4 years of inflation and it's still possible to lose. I still own 3 BTC just for the possible upside but that's down from 6 BTC originally. I'll probably reduce that down to just 1 BTC and put the funds into VXUS, GLD and AMZN.

DigitalCommando

Set a DCA amount and frequency that you feel comfortable with. Then set up a warchest that is about 4-6 months worth of your DCA, preferably in an account that accrues interest. Continue to DCA on your chosen schedule. When BTC drops 10%, double your normal DCA amount for a single purchase out of your warchest. If it drops 20% triple it, 30% quadruple, etc. This is called Dynamic Dollar Cost Averaging.

azblazer007

BTC only at this point. Trump grifts killed alt market. Worst bull market I've experienced. DCA slowly be happy later

Wildwildworld123

This may be a dumb question but how do you purchase BTC with credit cards? I have a couple 18 month 0% cards that I’ve tried using on a few exchanges and it won’t go through. What’s the secret?

Wildwildworld123

This may be a dumb question but how are you able to purchase BTC with credit cards? I’ve tried too on a couple exchanges and they won’t go through. I have some 12 month and 18month 0% cards I wouldn’t mind using to buy the dip.

Nice_Material_2436

>Furthermore, there is something built into Bitcoin called the difficulty adjustment. If hashrate drops, the difficulty to mine BTC will adjust lower ( less power to produce BTC so you understand) . Where there are more miners on the network, it becomes harder. This is all centered around a 10 min block time. The difficulty adjusts to try to average the block time around 10 min. Sure but the mining difficulty can only drop so much before it becomes a problem, and then there is the halving which will accelerate this problem. Or are you gonna start claiming hashrate doesn't matter? >You literally have no clue what you are talking about yet you act so stupidly confident. Bitcoin is the one thing I will continue to fight with idiots like you acting like you have any understanding of what you are talking about. Take the fucking time to do just a little simple research before being a clueless warrior. I know way more about Bitcoin than you think, that's why I'm so confident it will fail. I've been fighting people like you for years. >Virtually nobody accepts payments with gold either lol. You can spend Bitcoin a lot easier than you can gold. It's a matter of people accepting it, it's a matter of adoption. Gold simply will never be used as an everyday currency, Bitcoin can. The amount of Bitcoin matters as there is a finite amount. I don't understand why you keep bringing up gold. Nobody is using gold as payment and I never claimed anybody did. Barely anybody, except the pizza guy, is using Bitcoin as payment either. Sure there are payment processors that let you pay with Bitcoin but behind the scenes they convert to fiat, maybe that's why you are confused. > I'm just a dude. I can't promise anything when it comes to Bitcoin what the fuck are you talking about hahahaha. Now you are just straight up being stupid. No one can promise you anything. No one can promise you returns. It is a commodity. A globally mined commodity. >Also when did I imply it'll only go up? Quote me when I said that. Seriously? And then you're wondering why I don't respond... . Scroll up and see what you said. If Bitcoin is supposed to be a store of value it has to keep going up, simple as that. > When mining Bitcoin becomes unprofitable and they stop mining BTC, the btc in your wallet that you own doesn't disappear. Do you see how easy this is? Have a good point God damn man. This is the point where I start wondering if you actually know anything about Bitcoin tbh. How are you going to access your BTC if nobody is mining blocks? >I guess time till tell. Considering BTC started at pennies and it now tens of thousands of dollars, id wager Bitcoin for sure is a good store of value but don't take my word for it. Go look at a chart if you are interested in doing a little research yourself. Weird, where did the confidence go? I thought BTC was the future of finance? Charts lol. Look at any crypto chart before the rugpull and they all look basically the same. I know you think Bitcoin is different but in the end the chart will look just like any other rugpull.

BiggRFinger

I saw in your post history that you eventually plan to buy a home. Assuming you plan to borrow against your BTC to do so instead of liquidating it (I could be wrong, maybe that is your eventual intent) what service will you use to do that and what kind of rates can you expect?

jbone027

BTC is part of the system now. As soon as it was introduced to the derivative system, it was donezo.

jeffereeee

Just hold, BTC is a long game not a quick buck. Hold and you not regret it and be prepared for more downside before you see your gains again.

Inevitable_Pin7755

I have been through this exact headspace before and honestly the mental part is the hardest bit, not the drawdown itself. A 30 to 40 percent drop feels brutal when it is your first real cycle, but historically it has been very normal for Bitcoin. In past cycles there were multiple drops like this even during strong bull phases. People forget that because they only remember the final chart going up and to the right. Most of the recent weakness is not some secret failure of Bitcoin. It is a mix of liquidity tightening, people front running ETF hype and then selling the news, leverage getting flushed out, and general risk off behaviour when rates stay higher for longer. None of that changes the long term supply dynamics or why people hold BTC in the first place. The mistake most people make is thinking they have to do something. Cut losses, time the bottom, go all in, whatever. In reality the edge for normal people has always been boring. Position size that lets you sleep, long time horizon, and adding slowly when sentiment is bad rather than when everyone feels clever. If you believed in Bitcoin enough to buy it near the top, the worst moment to abandon that belief is when it is hurting emotionally. That is usually when the transfer of coins from impatient hands to patient ones happens. I write about this stuff from a very normal person perspective, not trader talk or moon posts. I bought badly, panicked before, learned the hard way. If anyone finds that useful it is on my profile. Either way you are not crazy for feeling this way. This is just what holding Bitcoin actually feels like in real time.

OpticallyMosache

"stay humble, stack sats". BTC will humble you but it's up to you to stack sats.

TheCatOfWallSt

It’s not that binary man. I believe in BTC, been in and out since 2017. Thought we would have a blow off top and put in $340k worth at $117k average. Now I’m down almost $150k and I have nothing left to average down with. I’m obviously holding but there’s no part of me that’s excited. Mainly feel dread whenever I open the app these days.

Immortal-MF

US govt still holding, Strategy still holding, and many other major players with *billions* of dollars in value. At this point, Bitcoin can only either incredibly valuable, or worthless at this point. Worthless only being if these major players decided to dump everything they own - but that's simply not going to happen, considering the asset has only really just begun being discussed properly by people of power. The thing is, the people in power are not dumb people, they see the value just as the rest of us do. It's either bitcoin, or gold - the dollar is on it's way out - and gold ain't very easy to keep in your cash register. Central banks (the big institutions like JP Morgan, etc.) don't care too much for losing control over everything, but there's a lot of other people with just as much money that don't really like the banks anyway, and so it's their word vs the bankers. Now, when I say "people with just as much money", I mean entire countries, I mean governments, I mean private equity firms, the list goes on. The thing about Bitcoin, is it's somewhat of a negotiation against the dollar that can't be denied. A deal that can't be lost. We all want 10% APY savings accounts - banks don't want to pay you that much - Bitcoin doesn't discriminate. Above was all typed by me, but here's some ai stats if you're curious: "List of countries that have bitcoin reserves" - United States (largest, ~198,000–328,000 BTC, Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) - China (~194,000 BTC, mostly seizures) - United Kingdom (~61,000 BTC) - Ukraine (~46,000 BTC) - Bhutan (~11,000–13,000 BTC, from mining) - El Salvador (~7,000–7,500 BTC, strategic purchases as legal tender)

Unable_Illustrator_2

Personally, I think a person that bought BTC for the first time at 125k was already behind the curve. They shouldve deff sold once BTC dropped below 110k, and for sure below 100k. However, for those of us that have been stacking for years, we are still stacking. I know I am. Did I buy some at like 115, 110, 105, 96, etc.? Yes. But I also bought much at 22, 25, 34, 45, 50, 60, etc. So, Im still good. By a lot. The only ppl selling are ppl that just got in.

NonVideBunt

So many people don’t realize this. And there’s no promise even BTC or ETH will stand the test of time. It’s still a relatively new asset compared to many other traditional investments.

Prince_Nelson

Because it gets clicks. This has been an easy cycle if you just buy BTC and wait. Will buy back in Q4, ignore the noise people. Buy BTC and wait.

TT_________

If you think Bitcoin is going to grow around 20% a year, selling it doesn’t really make sense. You’re better off borrowing against it. Say you build up $1M in BTC. At 20% growth, that’s about $200k in gains per year. The next year, that extra $200k is also growing, adding another ~$40k on top. Instead of selling, you take out a $200k loan against your BTC. Even at 10% interest, that’s only $20k a year in interest costs, while the BTC keeps appreciating. You just keep doing this over time and hold the BTC until you die. Depending on where you live, you may end up paying way less in taxes when it eventually gets passed down.

Agreeable_Wall5909

I did something to similar except I bet the house sort of speak. Took out a HELOC recently to buy one BTC to bring my total up to 1.75 BTC. Very risky on its face however I have 10 years left until I reach full retirement with a cush government job that will pay me 5 figures a month if I do not get hit by a bus. I have friends and family that would go out and buy a $90k truck with $1,000 car payments that would be paid off by the time they retire in the same predicament. My logic was simple, only debt I have now are two mortgages, no credit cards, no truck/car payment, no student loans etc....I could get a truck but that truck has no chance whatsoever of being worth more than I pay for it in 10 years. With BTC HODL for at least 5 years before assessment, if it sits at 70k, the loan is halfway paid off and I could cashout BTC and retire the loan, if sits at zero, I hold on another five to see what happens by year 10, if still sits at zero in 10 then yeah I lost but it has the same value of the truck or near that by then. However, if BTC does what it can possibly do in 10 years then I am in good shape in retirement with plenty of satoshis to spend and pass down to my grandkids. In any scenario, my son gets a paid off house in 10 years while we retire to a citizen centric country with low health care costs. Wasn't a tough choice for me.

thistimelineisweird

If 100% of BTC held right now as sold, right now, and the same number of buyers were waiting to jump in, the price would not change at all. What I'm reading here is enough people are buying at the price that they're selling.

Relentlessbetz

Where did you took a loan out that wouldn't question where its going and in cash? I've been doing the 0% Balance Transfer the last couple of months and Im on thr same boat as you, if BTC drops to 60k, Im going all in and need a big loan.

Shot-Structure-1274

The BTC is dead and hardly anyone uses it. It's expensive and slow.

LadyBird1281

Damn I could retire on 4.75 BTC. Keep us updated!

NoUsernamesss

You don’t lose money if you don’t sell. Hold that mfucker until you’re 50 yrs old. You will probably have enough to retire just from BTC investing.

greencyclist

Many thanks. Yes I need to get better at record keeping, though as I say I don't spend vast amounts on BTC, a few thousand last year. Kind regards

bcoppari

The longer you hold BTC, the lower your chances of a loss. You don’t lose until you sell. I would look at it like this, do you truly need the money you put in or can you live without it for a year, maybe two? If you don’t need the money, don’t fixate on the volatility, just hodl.

Jealous-Impression34

Fellow Dudes! All im saying is that my BTC portfolio has everything since Trump has come into office approximately 1 year ago. Bitcoin is still seriously a volatile asset at this point in time its certainly not something to retire on. A person who is retired needs to own an asset that keeps its value, not where the guy wakes up one day and see his portfolio lose almost $800k.

scintillatingsin

The F you buy at those price. You wont see those prices again for a 2-3+ years. BTC in bad shape. Strong resistance now at 82-86k. I can see a bottom between 40-60k. Maybe worse if Saylor sells (which is good for bitcoin long term.

thupkt

I figured one of 74, 70, 60, or 48 would be the end game for this markdown. The action today after the LOD was very promising. I was pretty sure we are seeing 60s before mid day today but now I am not certain we see lower prices than today's low. That said, it will be 1-2 weeks before I can detect new strength to attract me to a long BTC bet.

Otherwise-Ant9445

Very interesting, I checked out the link. It does indeed seem that large companies have been buying more BTC in recent weeks and months. The question is how meaningful this is. Perhaps important data is missing—who has been selling more BTC in recent weeks?

NeuralFantasy

You, nor anyone else, can say what happens to BTC price tomorrow. It is just impossible. It might increase, it might go down. It's a gamble. People who sell might make a corrrect guess or not. We'll see. But we don't yet know.

JustLTFD

The whole original argument was “will MSTR sell their BTC..” So mNaV DOES mean a lot because if it never drops below 1, then you are correct, they would never have to sell BTC, they would sell more stock to pay their debts and dividends. If it does drop below 1 then they need to sell BTC to raise money to pay their debts and dividends. This isn’t fantasy land, mNAV will CERTAINLY drop below 1 very soon. Good luck pal!

OhKaptain

Yeah that's exactly it; the price of BTC in Euros doesn't tell us anything different than the price of BTC in USD.

cryptofuturebright

You know what else works great BTC.

Decentralization-God

This is pretty weird, is not it? In crypto, especially BTC and memecoins, it is all about buying low and selling high. Without selling (in some future) there is very little value. So … If someone bought at 50k or 100k, then both these are happy the price is at 120k and are screaming to the moon, maybe. That requires SOMEONE to JOIN this ride … even at 120-125k, so current ATH zone. Either to maintain such price or push it higher. And surprise surprise, this guy OP, did that! And now comes the weird moment: Bro, why did you buy it at the peak? Was it FOMO? Or what? This is so so funny to me. And it kinds describes how people are unable to think precisely - on individual level they criticize or regret you, but requires mass to push price higher.

Wunid

You're lucky. My shitcoins are already down 99%. Calm down and invest for the long term. The very fact that you bought BTC puts you in a better position than most people who invest in crypto.

Scoreycorey515

That's cool, you can order a Folgen coffee while trading BTC? :)

Wunid

You're lucky. My shitcoins are already down 99%. Calm down and invest for the long term. The very fact that you bought BTC puts you in a better position than most people who invest in crypto.

HitEmInTheDingDing

This takes brains and balls mixed with a little bit of something else. Kudos on the gains and kudos on not going full regard and sticking with BTC. Your logic easily could have chased and went to alts, which you would have had insane gains but you most likely would have been wiped out entirely.

WorkerPlayful4192

Around 450 BTC are mined every day, to the next halving in 2028 I think.

Dom_Dastardly

BTC is done until next time. Top is in at 125k where I shorted. BTC broke major structures. Anyone telling you otherwise hasn’t a clue. I’ll be DCAing between 40-60k depending how those levels react.

CantStopAddicted2

If u have " payments to make " that money should not be spent on "investing " if u are buying BTC with money u still owe for Bills that is Gambling not investing

mastermindman99

This is one option, but the worst part: The "Strategic Reserve" Control = the end of BTC independence. The FED is at least independent from the government. As of February 2026, the US government holds approximately 200,000 to 210,000 BTC, largely from seizures like Silk Road and Bitfinex. Under the current administration’s "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" policy: • The Trap: By pledging never to sell these coins, the government effectively locks up a huge chunk of supply. While this sounds good for the price (scarcity), it gives the Treasury a "nuclear option."  • The Risk: If this or a future administration decides to "rebalance" or dump this reserve to stabilize the dollar, they could crash the market instantly. The "disciplined" approach is to hold it as collateral, giving the US government massive influence over the network’s liquidity. The US now also hosts a massive portion of the global hashrate. National Security Mining: There are growing rumors in 2026 that the US is subsidizing "Green Mining" centers that double as AI data centers. Soft Fork Control: If the US government (and its allies) controls more than 51% of the hashrate through regulated corporate miners (like Marathon or Riot), they could effectively "censor" transactions. They wouldn't need to "hack" the math; they would just refuse to include "unauthorized" transactions in their blocks. So BTC is not a hedge against the govt anymore. It has become the opposite. I sold everything the second this became clear in Feb. And I won’t go back.

qlz19

If you are only buying BTC because of expectations of growth outpacing other assets then you don’t understand its purpose and you should sell it all and never look back.

Vinnypaperhands

Ok you really need to understand that no money will ever create equality. There will never be an evenly distributed form of money, that's simply not how it works. Bitcoin was not created so we can live in a socialist world and everyone gets an even slice. The goal was to make it accessible for everyone. That is still the case and very much an even playing field for all. Just because mining is centralized doesn't make the protocol centralized. These are two separate things. We can have concentration in miners and keep a decentralized protocol with nodes. Even if the miners did a 51 percent attack that wouldn't do much but cost a bunch of money and they still wouldn't be able to change the protocol. >- they're just leveraging their strong positions to strenthen those positions further, at everyone else's expense. Yes exchanges will manipulate commodities. It's obviously in their interests and has been in the commodities markets for a long long time. The only difference is Bitcoin has real checks and balances. We can simply demand proof of reserves to solve these issues but we have a spinless government. Either way they cannot control Bitcoin on the protocol level. They can always move money around and create fear and greed but they will never control BTC on the protocol level.

SSabotage117

but i only have three cents to my name until Friday!!!!!! Curse you BTC mooning phase! You tricked us!!! 150k was supposed to happen man

CreativePhrase9202

I'm having fun with this one. Must confess it is only a small part of my holding. The rest is more normal, BTC, BCH and ETH. BCH seems to be showing a bit more resilience of late.

B_Winters3

Read the Bitcoin Standard and you will understand better. Reading superficial responses and replying to them is a waste of time. Only reading about BTC in depth will help in your understanding.

turd_ferguson_816

Where is BTC $1 million that he and his dumber and dumber sons promised?

No_Giraffe_4647

I think you did not pay attention I am not holding SEI looking at it and think of entering mid 2027 for now I already hold BTC ETH mainly and some CC HBAR DOT LINK

Seattleman1955

To me "investing" means buy and don't sell until your opinion of the underlying investment has drastically changed or you hit retirement age and you might (or might not) make adjustments. You can't time markets so your situation is inherent in investing. I lump summed in Bitcoin in mid to late 2021 and average it out to $48k (from the 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s). I put as much in (percentage wise) as I was comfortable with and stopped. Eventually it dropped as low as $18k but it also got as high as $125k. I've taken a little off the table to get my initial investment out and I still have 3 BTC. I'd suggest you or anyone else take a similar approach. Don't let fear have anything to do with it.

Logical_driver_42

Why would you stop and wait for the price to go up to buy less BTC? This is a good thing not bad buy more.

ICollectBidoofs

It’s these type of videos where people stop taking BTC seriously lmaoo

RitAI3

DCA every day and keep holding BTC forever

i_sniff_glue80

What are your thoughts on MSTR? Would you consider buying it instead of BTC if the MNAV went under 1?

Seattleman1955

I made an assessment of whether BTC was worth having in my portfolio and then invested a lump sum back in 2021. I have no intention of investing more. I cut back on the percentage as time goes on, after gains, and settle on a permanent percentage and then just leave it along.

SunGazerSage

What worked once ‘might not’ work the next time. What you did was risky indeed but it paid off. We are talking about Crypto here. As long as you are or would be okay with losing $50K, then by any means, go for it. It might work and it might not. Do you plan to invest exclusively in BTC? Why not expand your horizon?

OkZucchini5351

Pretty wild that some people would still consider altcoins after what we've all witnessed this cycle. Mate do yourself a favor and make it easy for yourself: BTC and BTC alone

AutoModerator

Post is by: KarimHann and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qv3eff/why_bitcoin_needs_to_hit_the_200week_sma_before/ I’ve been diving deep into Bitcoin’s historical price action, and I think we’re in for more pain before the real recovery starts. TL;DR: We need to test or hit the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) as the ultimate bottom signal, just like in every previous cycle. History shows this level acts as rock-solid support during bear markets, and until we touch it, any “recovery” is just a dead cat bounce. Quick Recap on the 200-Week SMA For the noobs: The 200-week SMA is basically the average closing price of BTC over the past 200 weeks (about 3.8 years). It’s a super long-term indicator that smooths out all the noise from short-term volatility. In traditional markets, similar long-term MAs (like the 200-day) are used to spot major trends, but for BTC, the weekly version has been gold for identifying cycle bottoms. Why is it so important? • Historical Support Level: In every major bear market (2015, 2018, 2022), BTC’s price has bottomed out right around this line. It’s like the market’s “line in the sand” – once we hit it, accumulation starts, and the next halving cycle kicks off the bull run. • Psychological and Institutional Anchor: Big players (whales, institutions) watch this closely. When price approaches the 200w SMA, it signals undervaluation based on long-term trends. Deviating too far above means overheat (FOMO tops), and too far below is rare but signals capitulation. • Cycle Predictability: BTC cycles are tied to halvings every 4 years. The bear phase purges weak hands, and the 200w SMA has marked the transition from despair to hope every time. Skipping this test would break a pattern that’s held for over a decade. If we don’t hit it, we’re likely in for choppy sideways action or even lower lows because the market hasn’t fully capitulated yet. Think about it – without touching this level, there’s no “reset” for the next leg up. Last Cycle Proves It: We Even Went Under by 10% Look at the 2022 bear market (post-2021 ATH). BTC dipped to around $15.5k in November, while the 200w SMA was hovering near $20k-22k earlier in the year but adjusted down slightly. We briefly wicked below it by about 10-20% (depending on the exact week), which was the capitulation wick that marked the absolute bottom. Price reclaimed it quickly, and boom – we started the climb toward the 2024-2025 halving pump. In 2018, same story: Bottomed at \~$3.2k, undershot the SMA by roughly 10%, then reversed. It’s not always exact, but going slightly under forces the final shakeout of leveraged positions and panic sellers. Right now, in early 2026, the 200w SMA is sitting around $58k (based on recent data ). If we’re in a similar correction phase, we need to test it to confirm the cycle low. Anything short of that, and we’re just delaying the inevitable. What Does This Mean for Us? • Buy the Dip Strategy: If/when we approach $58k, that’s your generational buying opportunity. Stack sats there. • Risks if We Don’t Hit It: Prolonged bear or crab market. Macro factors like interest rates or regulation could push us there anyway. • Bullish Long-Term: Once we bounce off it, history suggests massive upside – think 5-10x from the bottom. This isn’t financial advice, just my take from charting and historical patterns. DYOR, but the data doesn’t lie. What do you think – are we heading for a 200w test, or is “this time different”? Sources: Mostly from TA tools like TradingView and articles on Bitcoin Magazine, CoinDesk, etc. Check the 200w SMA heatmap for visuals – it’s eye-opening. Upvote if you agree, downvote if you’re in denial! 🚀🐻 *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Scriibb

I would assume he bought the BTC with a CC, then did a balance transfer to a different CC offering 0% interest for X months. Then after X months did the same thing, transferring the balance to a different CC offering 0% interest for X months.

PaulieWoz

I'm probably going to get down voted, but check out TRX. If you strictly look at the technicals and the chart over the last 5 years, it outperformed BTC and most other top 20 coins. When everything else drops. TRX stays flat thanks to USDT. I'd say it's a good hedge and holding it along with BTC/ETH might be a good idea. Sprinkle in some silver, gold and a global equity ETF and I think you'd do just fine. :) Now I know how we all feel about these two, but you can't deny it's resilience when everything else dumps. PS. I don't own any TRX but my FIL does and rubs it in my face every time the market dumps. LoL

Goldy_iMs

He definitely didn’t tell them it was for BTC else this story would‘ve never happened…

iamacheeto1

if BTC goes to 69k i'm calling your mom

buzzyfairy

I'm -35% right now and invested about 17k at ATH lolz. I now buy between 1500$ and 2000$ per month and it barely changes the average loss. Hold on there, the bear market usually dips as much as 70-78%. It probably will go lower. The reason why I bought were because of theories about the end of the 4year cycle since institutionalization with ETF and capacity to borrow on BTC for mortgage. Those theories were wrong and here we are. It might bounce back but the worst case scenario is probably gonna be -70/75% from ATH. I made up my mind that I'm not selling anything until 2029-2030. I might sell some when it reaches a new ATH + 60% from the last ATH, therefore minimally 192k$. I'm also probably gonna hold some even tho the bear market after will probably go as low as 58k (if the usual dip applies). Timing the market is hard. so hold on there. Either you continue your strategy like me, or you buy way less and save for something else you need or you wait until breaking even (don't do that)

shitcanfly

For me, it's failing to be hedged against inflation, debasement and instability. Wtf is the purpose of BTC now.

gcbeehler5

Had you bought $1,000 of BTC a year ago, you'd have $735.16 today.

Prior-Delay3796

Yeah very solid project. KTA/BTC pair is also looking really strong.

Willing_Coach_8283

Looks like its for you to get a new loan - BTC @ 35k is coming again