BTC

Kenesson-Ongute

The part people often miss is that moving BTC through an exchange doesn't magically make the trail disappear either. An exchange may have records linking your deposits and withdrawals, even if someone looking at the blockchain can't establish that connection directly. Privacy really comes down to who you're trying to hide information from and what information they already have. Keeping salary UTXOs separate from unrelated funds is a good starting point, but it's not the same thing as making the coins anonymous.

Abgg_Reviss

Random daily advice - Something worth checking if you're regularly buying small amounts of BTC is the total cost of actually getting it into your wallet. An exchange advertising zero trading fees might still have a spread, and then there's the withdrawal fee on top. Comparing how many sats arrive in self-custody for the same amount of money tells you a lot more than the advertised trading fee alone. Small differences really start adding up if you're buying every week.

Generationhodl

"Half empty: 1 x BTC has less purchasing power today than 5 years ago, despite the numerous bullish macroeconomic developments since (ETFs, SBR, halving etc.)" But you are comparing 2021 highs from a bullrun peak versus prices now near the bottom of the bear year.  So I think it will look way better in the next 6-12 months. 

neutronjeff

What value does either party get out of paying you in BTC as opposed to your local currency?

Treesh_Jancy

I would go with Debian stable and full disk encryption. Since the laptop is dedicated to coordinating multisig and the private keys stay on hardware devices, the biggest practical wins are keeping the system minimal, verifying software downloads and avoiding unnecessary network exposure. Qubes is great for compartmentalization but sounds like overkill for your setup. I'd also back up the wallet descriptor and test recovery before moving any significant amount of BTC. That's arguably more important than which Linux distro you pick.

cryptokeyhole

Not law anywhere I know of, but several big exchanges publish their reserve addresses voluntarily, so you can check them on-chain. On our node, the lists from Binance, OKX, Bitfinex, Bybit, Deribit, Crypto.com, KuCoin and HTX hold about 1.11M BTC right now, about 655k of it at Binance's addresses. Coinbase and Kraken publish no addresses, and some of the lists are years old, so it's a partial picture. Addresses also only show the assets side, not what the exchange owes its customers.

Treesh_Jancy

Publishing wallet addresses would definitely help with transparency, but it only proves part of the picture. An exchange could show that it controls 10,000 BTC while still owing customers 15,000 BTC. That's why proof of reserves needs to be paired with some way to verify customer liabilities. Even then, borrowed assets and off-chain obligations can complicate things. I would rather see exchanges publish regular independent attestations that cover both sides instead of just showing a bunch of addresses.

KateR_H0l1day

I entered the SATS last week, so I obviously helped them buy those BTC’s.

PolyPunter

Interesting approach. Bringing Polymarket and Kalshi markets together is useful, especially since the same BTC outlook can be spread across a lot of different contracts. One thing I'd be curious to see is how the forecast performs historically. For example, when the model gives an 80% range, does BTC actually finish inside that range roughly 80% of the time? That kind of calibration data could make the forecast much more useful than just looking at individual market odds.

Elmer-Shutara

Since you already have a 401k and traditional investments, one thing worth understanding first is the difference between owning Bitcoin and getting exposure to its price. A spot Bitcoin ETF lets you buy through a regular brokerage, but you can't withdraw the actual BTC to your own wallet. Buying through an exchange gives you that option, although then you need to learn about custody and recovery phrases. Neither approach requires putting a big amount in immediately. I'd spend a little time understanding that difference before deciding where to buy.

Thaddaeus_Undergrade

The part I'd question is treating diminishing returns as a mathematical rule rather than a pattern we've observed so far. There are only a handful of completed cycles, and each happened under pretty different market conditions. Miner revenue is also a combination of block subsidies and transaction fees, so the security argument is more complicated than just looking at how much new BTC gets issued. Interesting thesis, but I don't think the data gets us anywhere close to a reliable 10% ceiling.

bobbyv137

It's all about perspective: Half full: it's up $75k since the covid lows. It did a 8x between Q4 2022 and Q4 2025 Half empty: 1 x BTC has less purchasing power today than 5 years ago, despite the numerous bullish macroeconomic developments since (ETFs, SBR, halving etc.) What's all but certain is the talk of $1m per coin by 2030 isn't happening. It's not going to do a 12x in <4 years.

theusedcomputers

Got it. I fear day trading crypto, especially BTC. The volatility is too much for me to stay calm and make rational decisions. If it works for you, then thats great man. Wishing you the best.

SalePrestigious6605

Does BTC look terrible ? 🧐 it's been great for the past 5+ years.

Feriman22

Not manually. I only act when the system triggers an entry on BTC, ETH or BNB, so I don't really have a "this looks cheap, I'll buy it" list. That's kind of the point - removing that discretion from the process.

Big80sweens

buy low and sell high, or in BTC case, buy low and hold forever.

Murky_Willow2826

BTC dropping under $80k looks scary, but the range today has actually been pretty tight: buyers defending around $79,400-79,600, with $80,500-80,800 acting as resistance where recoveries have stalled this week. The big event is tomorrow, 28 Oct, when the Fed announces - traders are pricing a very high chance of no change. That doesn't tell you what to buy or sell. It just means a lot of the move right now is waiting, not a new trend yet. If you're new, the usual mistake is making a rushed decision on a red day. Not financial advice, just how I'm reading it.

Icy_Dragonfruit__

HODLing is one thing, but make sure you keep an emergency fund outside BTC. 🙌

wsbgodly123

Bitcoin's lowest point this month was about $79,146, on Sat Oct 24. That's spot BTC-USD from Yahoo, using UTC days. It started October near $83,550, peaked around $87,150 on Oct 2, and is about $79,750 now. That's down roughly 4.5% for the month and near the lows. **Date** **Low** **Close** Oct 1 83,133 84,853 Oct 4 84,707 86,480 Oct 8 80,337 81,676 Oct 15 79,736 82,141 Oct 21 82,543 84,012 Oct 24 **79,146** 80,791 Oct 26 79,279 80,007 Oct 27 (so far) 79,380 79,750

SatisfactionFinal287

Am I right in thinking BTC is doing quite alright looking at the other stuff plummeting?

Iranoutofhotsauce

What BTC to 93Ooo wow

weigelf

Bitconnect. I don't wasn't to think about how much in today's BTC value. Also, got scammed out of ~$2,500 from a guy I was sending PayPal to in exchange for alt coins. Worked well for some smaller transactions. Then, I sent PayPal and he ghosted me. I found who the guy was with the help from a group of devs who would go after scammers. Eighteen year old. Contacted his father when I found that others the guy scammed got money back from the dad. By the time I got to his dad, he was freed up with it all, and I got nothing back. As an earlier commenter pointed out - "tuition"

Lavayo

If the power law applies it does not do so because BTC is a currency. Its something much more fundamental that's used as currency by us.

_ari_c_flemming

The part I’d watch isn’t the coin count it’s how it’s funded. Preferred stock isn’t debt but the preferreds are dividend bearing so Strive has to keep cash aside to pay them. 1B SATS program is issuance capacity not money already raised. And more coins doesn’t automatically mean more bitcoin per share that depends on how many securities they issue to pay for it. the real test is whether they can keep issuing at a good price when BTC isn’t going up

tenor_tymir

I also bought 0.01 BTC this week. We’re the same.

RennaisanceWizzard

I wonder if SBF scam was throwing BTC off making it look better than it was and now that that scam is gone, it is no longer being thrown off.

sheeeeeeeeei

I’m not going to change my stance, or get swayed further from Bitcoin, but to build from 0 to 1 BTC is my goal, mainly because I refuse to miss the train all over again. I’m interested to hear other people’s thoughts on how expensive 1 coin is , when actually trying to DCA . Most of the DCA crew probably has 1 BTC by now. This cryptocurrency has made it to the point where it is now “real work” to acquire, no longer funny money. Also, don’t be like me. I never sold BTC but, not buying BTC at all is even worse. Don’t feel bad that you traded everything away. If you didn’t, you’d be harping on the next closest thing that you did or didn’t do.

sheeeeeeeeei

Hey guys. I wanted to share this but don’t feel like making a huge post. I am gonna to to reach 1 coin before 2028. My job’s salary may possibly allow me to do this if I get a side hustle. I just see so much on here (people who regret selling at $100, etc.) I feel like we all share that common regret and fomo. To those who bought and held congrats…. I’ve been noticing that people bought Bitcoin more often when they are near a crypto hub like Vancouver BC or Toronto, and BTC has largely been tied to the Silk Road, and drugs, for most of its life. I’m an actual Bitcoin enthusiast and would-have-been investor. I’ve tracked Bitcoin news since 2012, taking a few large breaks in between. I understood the scarcity of the hard cap and I understood exactly what this currency would do, I just didn’t have the patience, money, time, or support to fully and comfortably go all in on BTC. The reason I’m buying BTC is because I feel like an absolute clanker for not buying BTC at $2.50, $5, etc. Am I wrong for wanting to save up for 1 BTC (DCA) ? I’ve always been bad with money but BTC has my heart and is a huge part of my life, mainly because the protocol encourages trustlessness. Right now BTC is itching like a fent user, if you know what I mean. Only a matter of time….

K42st

The long term price movement of Bitcoin is simply less sellers in the market all markets work on a buyer seller basis which traders see everyday the price goes up because buy orders overwhelm sell order and visa Versa in simple terms, the most important factor is spot BTC buying which is organic so less BTC supply available, leverage is rocket fuel for price discovery but it is not organic growth it can and does dissapear as fast as it came and often causes sharp price collapses. So simple less people willing to sell at a price level and less supply drives price up, more people selling than buying drives price down. So the basics of the money supply and it’s correlation which BTC, in simple terms there are always issues in the economy issues that likely can’t be fixed like the debt situation and one issue having a knock on effect on others, Bond Markets, Goverment Debt, Housing, Banks, Bussiness, AI Build Out, at some point the powers that be have to step in they do so in ways that won’t inflate prices badly but sooner or later they can’t help but step in with full on QE time after time the do this they wait till it’s nearly breaking then have no choice but to go full on money printing. Some of that money finds its way into risk assets spot buying increases, leverage risk increases and BTCs price moons. Each time these things happen people lose more faith in the system and BTC and Gold and other safe havens become more invested in and price goes up but also becomes more stable because people see it as a hedge a long term safety valve against an economy that is not in good health. You will see it soon when the AI bubble bursts it will cause a shot to the exonomy just like the dot com bust, when you see the increase in the money supply they won’t hide it it will be full on. From your post I doubt anyone can convince you though but beleive me BTCs price will only increase and everyone alway and i mean always says the same thing, I wish I’d bought some then.

Crypto_Champion77

BTC is the same now as hundreds of other financial instruments. It’s going down because oil is going up and it looks like the Fed may raise interest rates. It’s so regulated now that it will just act like other investments.

PsychologicalBit803

I’ve been buying regularly when it was under 70. Buying at all right now I think is fine. Couple of years when we are firmly back in a bull market I wont care if I bought at 60 or 65. Now if it truly dropped to under 50k I’ll put every dime I can get in BTC.

Coleyx123

Definitely agree. BTC and ETH are for holding (at least for me), and most tokens are for trading. If the tokens are cheap and have a decent community, I hold a few million just in case, but that's some "I'm not going through DOGE again" type stuff. Spent $3 on DOGE way back when I thought I was going to trade myself to riches. I did not and should've held. Idk what 7.5 mil of DOGE is worth, nor do I want to, but I picked them up for a $1 or $3. Life happened, traded them, and now I cry, lol.

TheWorldArmada

You’re fooling yourself if you think buying Bitcoin isn’t gambling. Created by an unknown person who has custody of 1.1 million BTC. If that 1.1 million BTC ever moves it would trigger a massive sell off. Big institutions selling it all would trigger a sell off as well. No one knows the real purpose of BTC. We’ve been told it’s to be independent from the banking system, but it could all end in a rug pull. That being said I do have BTC but I’m not kidding myself into thinking it’s infallible. I have what I can afford to lose, and I don’t treat it as a store of value. I sell when the market is heated and I buy when everyone says it’s dead. Taking profits mitigates the risk.

Empty_Carpenter7420

He bought… dump it. Pretty normal, BTC goes up and down

pfchangshomelesscat

Makes a post about why BTC is going down, but doesn't answer why BTC is going down

MerK-x-VeNoOm

If BTC goes the way you want it I see it doubling in the next peak back at its 120k form. I do believe it will happen sooner than later. The issue tho is risk of it taking too long to get there or not at all. You lose essentially everything. We are all betting against that obviously but again, it’s the risk

tenor_tymir

Wrong. BTC is a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

Previous_Blueberry_5

Exodus has been having a lot of phishing scams and online thefts recently I wouldn’t keep any money on there. Bitbox02nova and Strike for the exchange to buy BTC.

TheWorldArmada

BTC is by definition a cryptocurrency.

Interesting_Loss_907

You meant to say: multiply the decimal in question (0.00000005) by the current BTC market price. If he multiplied the number of Satoshis by the current market price he would get over $400,000.

nofxet

Yea if the purchasing power of $1 million is like a nice down payment on a house because nice houses are now $5 million, then it won’t seem like much progress. A nice house right now is like $350-500k in many areas and 1 BTC is about what you would need for a down payment.

omni_wisdumb

It doesn't need to be a physical asset to follow economic principles. And I never said it can't or won't 10x. I said compared to the risk, it's not any more likely to 10x than many great stocks over the next 10 years. I've also been in this space since like 2012 and most likely have more than 99.99% of this sub, so I am not anti-BTC or FUD. The fact is that thinking Bitcoin will have the same price action (or that price discovery isn't a thing) now as it did I 2012-2018 when people you got these "I got rich" stories is nonsensical. Do I think everyone should invest a little in BTC and maybe a little in a few other projects? Absolutely. Telling someone to take a mortgaged back loan of over $100k to buy BTC is beyond stupid.

Myianmonik

Op is regarded be easy on him. That much BTC is 900 million USD Buddy (^_^)v

v__tee

That is 5 Satoshis. Always multiply the number of Satoshis, by the current BTC price, in USD. This will give you the magic number you are looking for :)

Suspicious-Pipe9483

Im too late, did exactly what I shouldn't have and lost .45 BTC. Woke up to email and was still asleep and panicked and did something I've always known not to do. I know not to trust any DM's offering help, just hoping someone else might benefit from learning about this.... Hash ID 10d765f0ee23368f3700af5434a5fa908d40023f27741786b8a2fc250724c09e Wallet sent to bc1q7w6gdukt2400jh208ycf5wntw8l3x7z04gv2h3

tenor_tymir

Not sure why DCA loses nothing? If OP DCA’d for a few years and has amassed a serious amount of BTC and it then goes to $1, they have lost the exact same amount, just stretched out over a longer time frame.

yoobermcruber

Not according to the chart. The circulating supply is currently 20,103,909 BTC and the chart says 8.5% of that is held by Funds & ETFs. 79.6% of 20,103,909 BTC is 16,002,712 BTC. You are claiming that over 1/3 of 16,002,712 BTC is held by ETFs but ETFs currently only hold a total of about 1.3 million BTC.

tenor_tymir

BTC is not “crypto”. It’s a logical bet on the continuous rise of BTC, coming out of a bear market. The possibility is very high that a new ATH will be reached within the next 2 years. Taking out a loan and investing during a bear market is a calculated risk, as long as you can pay the loan instalments out of pocket.

autonym

If BTC goes to $1 next month and stays there, the loan and lump-sum purchase loses the person's apartment, whereas DCAing loses almost nothing. That's the sort of thing that DCA is meant to protect against.

BigSkyHawk1

wow, no way. not on BTC. Maybe if you said you were putting it in Broadcom or Nvidia but crypto? no way

lobhater

Begging for money a 0 day old account. Linking to a pastebin with a BTC address 🙄

Significant_Table3

DCA means dollar cost averaging, meaning you average the purchase price over a span of time. Buying a lump sum of BTC is per definition the opposite to DCA, no matter if you pay off the loan over time. Taking a loan, buying in increments over a period of time is DCA.

whipstickagopop

I know it's not possible esp with the amouny of decimals BTC has but I can't quite explain it clearfully to myself (or friends).

Curious-Ad-3192

The math that bit you here is that exchange fees are charged on notional position size ($2,000 at 20x), not on your $100 margin—and you likely used Kraken's Instant/Convert retail widget (~0.80% per leg = $16 on $2,000) instead of Kraken Pro's perpetual futures orderbook. If you break down the exact numbers on an $80,144 to $79,673 BTC move (a 0.587% price move, or 58.7 bps): 1. Why 'Zero-Fee' Venues Are Usually Wider in Disguise: - Platforms advertising 'zero trading fees' almost always bake 15-40 bps per leg into a synthetic bid-ask spread or charge dynamic price-impact fees. On a tight 58.7 bps target move, a 25 bps wider spread per leg eats 85% of your gross profit before you even count funding. 2. Orderbook Perps + Maker Limit Orders vs. Retail Instant Orders: - On dedicated perpetual futures orderbooks (Binance Futures, Bybit, OKX, Coinbase International, or Kraken Pro Futures—not the retail app widget), base tier fees are roughly 0.02% (2 bps) Maker / 0.05% (5 bps) Taker. - On your $2,000 notional trade ($100 x 20x), two taker legs at 0.05% cost $2.00 total ($1.00 open + $1.00 close), and two post-only maker limit legs at 0.02% cost $0.80 total—compared to the $32+$5 you paid. 3. The Real Constraint on Tight Scalps at 20x: - Even on a 2-5 bps futures orderbook, targeting a 0.58% move at 20x leverage means a 0.30% adverse wick against you consumes over 6% of your margin, and round-trip taker + slippage (~12-15 bps) still takes ~25% of your gross edge. Always check that your expected distance to target is at least 4x-5x your all-in round-trip fee + spread.

theusedcomputers

Really? What if you sell it and see it keep going up? As some BTC die hards believe it will get to $1 million.

AdFormal8116

So if China bought ALL of the coins (theoretically) then sold one coin for $80,000 - what would the price of BTC be ?

dexter0no

Bought some BTC on a dip a while back and watched it go red the same week. Mostly just speculation for me at this point, not waiting around for it to change the world.

Sherako4

I have only ever seen the other way around, using BTC as collateral to get a loan. Maybe this was a half decent idea 10 years ago or whatever when BTC was surpassing $21k again.

anjin33

Why. BTC has been a pretty lousy investment for the last 5 years or so.

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finniruse

This is my working theory too, and like literally every investor, educated or not, it's crystal ball gazing. My theory: The lack of a blow off top. Scott Bessent then coming out and indicating that they'd print more money to buy US debt, shocking the BTC market — lots of investors were expecting more downside and many feel sidelined. Huge amounts of macro uncertainty, which has been brushed off for many years but seems to be worrying a lot of investors. An unhinged US president who starts wars that drive inflation. What would frustrate and surprise a lot of people, I think, would be a range bound btc for all of next year. And then at some point, once 80k feels like the most miserable number in the world, the memo will come through and it'll skyrocket.

TheDadThatGrills

No, quite dense of you to equate a roof over your head with BTC in your wallet. Get off your high horse and use a bit of critical thinking before you click the comment button.

devCheckingIn

No, because banks will actually make customers whole whereas if your BTC gets hacked it's gone forever.

omni_wisdumb

Listen, these ideas were cool 10 years ago when BTC was worth relatively nothing. Market Cap and Economics are a thing. BTC isn't just going to do a 10x (unless you're talking about like 10-20 years from now) versus the risk of any legit stock or index funds doing a 10x in the same amount of time. There's also the point of being insolvent or not being able to pay the installments if there is a long downtrend or sideways move. I know someone who took out a $300k loan to buy all Tesla stock, albeit it seems like it's more as a social media content strategy. He bought at around $410 in Dec 2024.... He's still down (even as of today's huge 6% spike).. if he had diversified he'd probably have doubled his money by now with how crazy a bunch of stocks have been (specially AI related). Hell, even if he bought gold he'd be doing much better. Going all in on any one thing is dumb, let alone with a loan, let alone a loan for your home.

labatte

Taking out a loan and making a lump-sum purchase is the same as DCAing, with the loan locking in today's price, and the monthly payments on the loan are the DCA. It's only a bad choice if BTC stays below your entry price for the duration of the loan, and if that is the case, DCAing wouldn't have stopped you from losing money either (you just would have lost a bit less).

Forded_Fiction24

I think it depends on macroeconomic backdrop. Markets are intertwined. Next thing I'm looking at is jobs report and Fed meeting on 26-27th. If they hike rates another quarter point, BTC will drop in the short term. If they hold then markets will rally through the end of the year. Also a lot depends on escalation or de-escalation in Iran. 

KyleBr7

I mean fair question. But the real question is not how what the value of BTC is in terms of fiat, it's much more about what goods and services it would be able to buy. It would be an unprecedented time for an asset like BTC. I think it would be outlawed, which doesn't mean that people wouldn't hold it. My best guess is that the end result would be similar to an average of what was the case for stable foreign currency and gold in communist empires of the past.

OdonsOwn1966

Keep the apartment mortgage free, invest what you can afford (maybe what the payment would be). Usually not a good idea to borrow to invest. We all think BTC will go up, but it is not a guarantee, and there is no guaranteed timeline. Everyone can say "based on previous cycles, it's going to rocket, within the next couple of months", but that is just hopeful projection. "Past results are not an indication of future results".

Joris119

BTC isn't at like 15k don't do it. Insane risk/reward ratio

canada11235813

You're asking for opinions, and I haven't read any from others yet... but this might not be the place to ask. The answer is that it's an awful idea for many reasons, but I fear you might be guided differently by the TO THE MOON! crowd here. You won't get an objective opinion from the very cheerleaders of BTC. The tl;dr is DO NOT DO THIS... because, while it could be pay off spectacularly, it could just as easily entirely derail your life to a point it'd be difficult to recover from.

Cyberstu72

Bitcoin BTC would go down because communism s about taking everything from the citizen and keeping it for the state, do they would ban it or confiscate it.

Working_Salt_Mine

If you need to grow Wealth aggressively, you have to take on more risk. Nothing in this world is risk-free. The rate of return on any asset is inversely proportional to risk. BTC is not some risk-free asset. It’s highly speculative and offers no guarantees as a hedge. Aside from some marginal use cases that haven't panned out even after nearly 2 decades, it’s purely about what someone else is willing to pay for it, which is also called a Ponzi scheme or greater fools theory.

MedullaOblonGatti

People rooting for the "bitcoin to $1M" theme seem to ignore the terrible things that might occur in order for it to rise that high...that's major dollar devaluation happening more than it is "BTC will be that much better than everything else." My opinion, of course, so I'm open to discussion...

PulIthEld

If the banks are getting hacked, dont people realize BTC is a safer haven?

purplespaz

2 BTC Langostine

tenor_tymir

I’m thinking it’s a good idea as long as you can repay the loans *easily*. And I mean it: **EASILY**. Others take out a loan to finance a house and pay it off within 30 years. Why not buy BTC when you already have an apartment? It’s risky but I guess time is on your side. What’s the rate of the loan?

Jaded-Box-717

Many people here don't have the balls to do what you want. BTC is a store of proven value. If you can pay the credit and you have no doubts, go with it. I think that in a few years you're going to shut up all these envious people :)

Greeklighting

Rent out your apartment or a room and take that money to buy BTC live in your car 

Murphy4130

Ok so, let’s actually dig into this risk.. is the apartment owned outright? How long is the mortgage for? What’s the repayment on the mortgage? Let’s assume BTC crashes and your 130k loan is gone.. you just carry on paying the loan off? Property price increases you eventually move and the 130k is just absorbed into the debt of another properly. Assuming you have a job to pay the mortgage etc

reddit4485

So the mining reward is going down? Let's take a look in dollars (i.e. the same dollars you buy electricity and miners with). Halfening date, Reward, and Total $ Reward Nov. 28, 2012, 50 BTC, $617.50 July 9, 2016, 25 BTC, $16,250 May 11, 2020, 12.5 BTC, $107,500 April 20, 2024, 6.25 BTC, $398,750

Equity_GOD

Bitcoin can go to 160-200k at best in the next few years.. Why not stick it into something like MSTR or COIN.. or some other growth stock like NBIS etc. There are 10-20x potentials here, whereas BTC is 2-3x at most if you time the bottom.

TheDadThatGrills

I'd rather take a 130k loan against BTC to put a down payment on a home. This decision is the essence of greed.

mrnestor

Maybe you could diversify, not all in BTC but spy and gold

Peewee223

Bitcoin is going to the moon. And I'll know it's reached it, when my 1 BTC buys me a ticket on a rocket to the moon.

PsychologicalBit803

Still in a bear market. If you can wait you probably should. Historically after elections markets decline. You may be able to catch BTC now in the mid 80’s but I think the general consensus from people I follow daily is it’s still got a decent correction coming. In the end though…nobody knows. Can’t sell then look back a year from now and regret it. If you gotta do it just do it and move on. You can buy more when there is a price dip if you have cash ready. I think everyone stresses too much.

Alexander-305

Couple of things I'd push back on 🤔 The 25% isn't really a forecast, it's the slope of a curve fitted to past prices. A power law in time means the implied yearly growth rate shrinks every year by construction, so the model will always "say" returns decline. Whether BTC keeps hugging that line for another decade is the actual bet, and it can break in either direction. The 2x world ETF comparison sounds cleaner than it is: - Those funds reset leverage daily, so in choppy markets volatility drag eats the return and you don't get 2x the index over a multi-year hold. - Drawdowns compound brutally. Global stocks fell roughly half in 2008-09, and a 2x daily fund through a path like that gets cut far more than double and needs a monster rally just to get back to even. - Matching the expected return isn't matching the risk. You'd be stacking leverage on the same equity risk most people already own through their pension or index funds. For me the case for holding some BTC past 2035 was never "beat stocks by a mile" anyway. It's a scarce, non-sovereign asset that doesn't move in lockstep with a stock portfolio. If that doesn't matter to you, a lower expected return is a fair reason to size it smaller, not necessarily to skip it entirely 🫡

SwordfishFlashy5229

Biggest risk is liquidation, especially if you’re borrowing to invest more. A crash could hit both your collateral and your new investment. I’d also compare Kraken with alternatives like Arch Lending, particularly their rates, custody setup and liquidation policies. Borrowing against BTC can make sense, but I’d keep the LTV low. Crypto is volatile enough without adding too much leverage lol.

VettaQ

The question hides the actual decision. 'Hold or sell before the Fed' is not one position, it is two different trades depending on what is doing the holding. Spot BTC through an FOMC is a volatility exposure: implied vol ramps into the print, the first move is frequently reversed within hours, and a 2-3% wick is survivable noise. The same wick at 10x leverage is a liquidation - you can be directionally right by Friday and still have no position, because the path, not the thesis, kills leveraged trades around binary events. The liquidation cascades you mention work exactly this way: forced market sells into thin books, which move the price further, which forces the next tier. So the useful pre-event checklist is mechanical, not directional: (1) what is my liquidation price and how many normal FOMC wicks away is it; (2) what fraction of the position survives a 3% adverse spike with zero action; (3) is my invalidation the Fed statement itself - in which case this is a coin flip with funding attached, and sizing should admit it. Whatever you decide on direction, leverage is the variable that turns 'wait and see' into 'forced out at the bottom of the wick.'

Obvious-Shop-6260

You say you are 100% accurate and fully believe your model. But 2 days ago you post about your concerns about mortgage loans and not having a rich dad to help you out in the housing market. If you’re that confident with your BTC predictions, why the post from 2 days ago? Sounds like having enough money for a house would be a guarantee with your BTC model.

Uglypants_Stupidface

I bought a few BTC at 61k and was planning to hold until 2029, but I am convinced we are entering a recession and there will be a crash. Would I be dumb to sell now and rebuy?

waltotheter

Its old BTC.

HorrorCapable

You have overlooked the supply and demand, which is one of the most important factors in the game of market, as BTC has limited quantity of 21 millions and only about 1 million left to end, whilst ETH has no limits of supply! Surely this will not be unfavorable to ETH.!

Baseic

Exactly the amount of handwaving I'm used to seeing. It's funny how your own posts calls out AI as not a magic wand which will hack BTC, but now it *is* a magic wand which will fix the quantum thread. Lightning is a dying project which never gained traction, and good luck onboarding people with 1-2 transactions per second.

PeopleNose

Fuck these garbage memes and keep stacking BTC

IAmFitzRoy

It’s baffling to me that this subreddit keep talking this way. If nobody trade, BTC collapses. You don’t need deep knowledge about prices to understand this.

K42st

BTC is more correlated with liquidity it always has been and always will be as soon as there is an exspansion in the money supply BTCs price moves up.

cryptokeyhole

Those three dates were all much deeper in the hole. About 17 months before each of the last three halvings (early 2015, late 2018, Nov 2022), BTC was 69-81% below its ATH and MVRV was under 1, so the average coin was underwater. Today it's 36% below the October 2025 ATH close and MVRV is 1.36. Same spot on the calendar but a very different starting point, so I wouldn't lean too hard on that median.

Chief_reef_steve

If ETH flips BTC you can have all of my BTC lol.

VerbalVisually

**Four data points plus arbitrary lines is curve-fitting.** The author admits the Fibonacci levels mean nothing. Inverting a chart to find bottoms has no economic basis, because supply cuts don't create a hard price floor. **Supply isn't the main driver anymore.** Annual issuance is under 1%. ETF flows, liquidity, and macro conditions now move price far more than halvings do. **"No more gains" doesn't mean "insecure."** Security depends on the block reward times price, plus fees. A flat price at $60K+ still funds near-record hashrate. The long-run "security budget" question is a legitimate debate, but on a decades-long horizon, not 10 years. **The Monero comparison is weak.** Monero is CPU-mined and much smaller, so hashpower could be redirected to it. Bitcoin runs on specialized ASICs that an attacker can't simply rent at the scale needed. **The biggest hole: Ethereum has no miner reward.** It switched to proof-of-stake in 2022. The whole thesis rests on miner rewards providing security, yet the proposed successor doesn't use them. Staking has its own trade-offs, which the author never addresses. ETH/BTC has also trended down for years, so the "flippening" hasn't shown up in the data. **Internal contradiction.** An asset whose upside flattens doesn't have to fail. Gold doesn't need halving-style rallies to stay valuable.

Icy_Dragonfruit__

The real hopium starts at $1M BTC. 🚀