BTC

malte_brigge

Miners are also dumping like crazy. Their current cost to mine is between $80k and $85k per bitcoin. They're currently losing $15k to $20k on *every BTC* they mine. Every time the price goes up, miners either sell some of their BTC holdings or short Bitcoin futures to lock in revenue and survive another day. Not to mention that over 40% of the circulating supply is currently being held at a loss. Whenever the price goes up, some of the retail investors who are underwater reach their break-even point and sell. OG whales (some of whom probably came from Gox) absolutely fat-fingered the sell button almost every chance they got in 2025 and Q1 2026, which also nuked the price. Bhutan has been relentlessly selling. Bitcoin is also losing out due to fears over Q-Day. Need I go on? It's maddening, it's appalling, but you don't have to reach for "paper Bitcoin" conspiracy theories to explain it.

QuirkyGlove3326

BTC going negative, you heard it here first

Any_Carob3372

If nobody ever sold under $30K it would effectively be $0 for BTC, except you'd have $30,000 minimum forever per BTC you own. As for the price action, one can guess it would be frothy quick, but go ahead and predict the future, it's a fun guessing game.

Every_hole

I have buy limit orders laddered in from 65,500 down to 39,000 every 2-4,000. 65,500 was hit and now I’m waiting on the next order to hit. If you are waiting for BTC to hit some magic number before you start to buy, there is a good chance you will miss it entirely.

TheresNoSecondBest

>There doesn’t seem to be a single convincing, scalable use case for BTC. Lots of theories, but nothing practical and mass adopted. Maybe apart from criminal uses… #check your financial privilege. [Millions in Bitcoin pouring into Ukraine from donors](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60541942) [Nigerian Aid Group Finds Sovereign Lifeline In Bitcoin](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/nigerian-protest-group-finds-sovereign-lifeline-in-bitcoin) [Bitcoin's Role In Human Rights And Global Empowerment](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/01/02/bitcoins-role-in-human-rights-and-global-empowerment/)

Dmarine999

I've been in and out of BTC for about 7 years now. Currently out (sold all a few weeks ago but will get back in when we go below $50k). The theories and use-cases are compelling. Until there is mass adoption, I don't think we will see meaningful price increases, like to $1M or more. The "never sell your BTC" mantra is a good tagline. However, if you sell when times are reasonably good and rebuy after a big drop, you will have more BTC than if you just held. Sure, I haven't timed the tops and bottoms perfectly, but I definitely have more BTC than if I'd just left locked in cold storage (which I did the first 3 years I owned).

jony_be

"There doesn’t seem to be a single convincing, scalable use case for BTC. Lots of theories, but nothing practical and mass adopted. Maybe apart from criminal uses…" its ok bud....bitcoin will be there for you when a 1 room house costs 500k and a piece of bread 10$.

babar_the_elephant_

Go down with the ship! 3BTC here and I am screwed!

Saffuran

There will always be some contrarian decoupling, BTC falling will ultimately drag ZCash and Hyperliquid e.t.c. down BUT once BTC is close to its bottom, it makes these assets very interesting to hold to see if their momentum continues into the start of the next cyclical bull run.

Generationhodl

"There doesn’t seem to be a single convincing, scalable use case for BTC". Oh there are, just none that you seem to understand yet as a gambler.

InvestmentBiker

Yes, for me BTC is not casino token but lots of the Alts

DrSpeckles

This heading is a little early. Soon it will read “why everyone lost money on BTC” and it will be past tense. Answer will be because they ever sold and kept throwing good money after bad.

Successful-Web-8715

The funny part is everyone was dogging on Ben when BTC surpassed 80K because he called it a counter trend rally. Funny how quickly sentiment shifts depending on what the price is doing

Any_Carob3372

Why *don't* believe in BTC?

InvestmentBiker

You are right, I also like BTC miners that switched now to AI. I am still doing DCA at BTC..

Bubbly-Hope6968

Alternatively, you could use the same funds to invest in the market. I’ve never bought a thing with the small amount of BTC I’ve tucked away for the laughs, and quantum compute looks like it could unlock the blockchain in the future. It’s tough for me to see any bull case that isn’t just speculation

Over_Regular_6897

They sold the BTC to win the Polymarket bet to buy more BTC

Saffuran

Definitely DO NOT buy right now!! XD In case you do decide to buy some in the future, fairly straightforward outlook: If BTC continues to mostly follow its pattern of weakness during mid-term years, this weakness will probably continue into Q4 (probably sometime until Oct/Nov but could technically last until January.) BTC is the tide that all other ships currently rise and fall by for the most part but there are some short-term contrarians like ZCash (privacy coin) and Hyperliquid (think of HL like a fully options market + prediction market with solid ability to hold value even in broader market downturns.) Currently, BTC is probably falling to somewhere in the 52k-48k range could go a bit farther and maybe spend some time just under 40k, but - provided it isn't going to zero (and I think that is extremely unlikely especially with institutional buy in) - I don't expect it to spend too much time below 42k durably. That is why I try to cross-correlate expectations from prior drawdowns with literally just dates on a calendar. On the way up there is rarely a reason to hold anything other than BTC early on, most everything will move up at about the same rate BTC does or less and it won't be until about a year or a year and a half into the run where capital rotation starts finding its way into ETH/SOL -- though some other contrarians like ZCash and Hyperliquid that are also high market cap within the space could be good to watch.

Character-Most1941

You should be selling your kidney, taking out home equity loans, personal loans to buy BTC. Definitely not selling lol

CODE_HEIST

Forced selling matters because it changes the trade from price opinion to liquidity mechanics. The question is not only how much BTC gets sold. It is whether the market believes more selling is coming, whether buyers absorb it, and whether the narrative around the holder changes. For traders, I would watch reaction at obvious liquidity levels rather than assume the headline alone tells the direction.

CODE_HEIST

That risk split is worth paying attention to, but I would not turn it into an automatic BTC bearish trade. Sometimes divergence is early information. Sometimes it just means different positioning and liquidity for a while. For a trade, I would want to see whether BTC accepts below key structure while equities stay bid, or whether it reclaims and traps the late shorts.

NonVideBunt

He knew it would go to 60k 😂😂 he’ll still be your prophet when you’ve lost all your money and BTC toilet.

AInception

He's said his endgame is to turn Microstrategy into a BTC-bank where he lends out IOUs. He's also said, only anarchists who evade taxes practice self custody, before backtracking on his statement after backlash. He's still trying to make the whole thing too big to fail by making it everyone's problem. I'd bet the people here will be begging the gov to bail him out unironically, which will predictably lead to bad forms of regulation 'for your protection'. If he can't have btc, no one can.

NothingxGood

Funnily enough this was my whole rationale to be getting into BTC in the first place. I’m watching this thing only go higher and higher despite the overall sentiment always being “can’t trust it”

kingkongbananakong

Truly believe even after all these years that BTC chart has a stronger representation of current economical states. I think it’s all side effects of the AI bubble that is still inflating. If I had more AI stocks this would be a moment to consider trimming exposure on them

MajorBath9203

But why on earth would you use an “asset” to buy something? I would never use a gold bar to purchase a car because I could just use cash instead.. and keep the gold an investment. BTC is basically worthless and only has its current price due to early 2000s digital hype. “If you can’t beat them join them” mentality. “Gotta be in it to win it”

MajorBath9203

My rule is only invest in something you believe in aka a product or company. BTC is essentially worthless, what can you actually buy with it or use it for ? Almost nothing. AI will wipe Bitcoin value drastically and all the hodls out there will lose their pensions.

klaki001

There is ‘social media’ guy who I don’t kind of despise a bit as he does come across arrogant etc.. , but he did call the peak pretty accurately when everyone else was saying the boom hasn’t happened yet. (Probably the arrogance he had when he was right) The last few weeks he is predicting BTC back to ATH this summer .. and also predicted the current drop from higher 70’s to under 70 which has happened quite quickly he has been right more than most.. I am personally keeping a close eye on thinks this time around . If he’s right, I might become a fan

cyger

Yes it can because the alts can keep going down and down and down. I'm so glad I sold most of my alts last Fall and put them into AI stocks. Over the last 2 years I've sold BTC for AI stocks, but this crypto dump is still painful.

VisiblePlatform6704

Shit, around 2019 i had some money in both ADA and DOT, as to me they seemed promising at that time. Fortunately at some point I moved everything to ETH and BTC.  

OBvanken

The last year of BTC summer was a disappointment, but except a few alts, all performed similar. I had seen what is coming but hoped otherwise, it was my fault. The chart was obvious. And same chart is optimistic for the longer run. Eventually, alts will perform better than bitcoin. Eventually.

NonVideBunt

BTC is becoming a stablecoin that will eventually barely beat inflation.

ChangeNOW_Community

the idea that 32 BTC triggered a systemic feedback loop in a multi-hundred-billion asset is where narrative starts replacing math 😭

NashDaypring1987

Let's hope so. Imagine all the tears if BTC fails. So many people are pinning their hopes for the future on BTC.

neverhodlHQ

# Fear & Greed Crashes to 11 as BTC Falls Below $67K — Every Capitulation Signal Is Flashing Fear & Greed at 11 — the lowest reading of 2026 and near COVID-era levels. RSI at 23 signals extreme oversold. NHCI deepens to 30.2. The question every cycle investor is asking: is this the final flush before recovery? ***Every capitulation indicator is flashing simultaneously:*** *Fear & Greed at 11, RSI below 25, SOPR below 1.0, STH MVRV below 1.0, NUPL in fear zone, Puell Multiple at miner stress levels. This exact multi-signal confluence has appeared at 4 out of 4 major cycle bottoms since 2017.* [https://x.com/NeverHodlHQ/status/2062123248012120104](https://x.com/NeverHodlHQ/status/2062123248012120104)

AvailableTie6834

I have a freelancer job that I get paid with BTC, if I want to use it, I send that BTC to Redotpay and pay for my shit.

GarbageOffice

What do you mean down and down? Last August BTC literally hit ATH. Altcoins exploded as well. Now it's down a few months and crypto is dead lol. Can'wait for all these drama queens to cry they didn't buy all over again a year or two from now when it's back to ATH. If you want stability, invest in stocks.

gamezrodolfo77

If you in fact DCA’ed then you also bought at 16k all the way up to 50-60K you mention, since it did in fact go down after 2021, and was below the current price longer than at the highest, when I assume you bought most. If we go by time and BTC price over time, you post does not add up. BTC will go back up, and you will again come here to cry that you sold, just don’t blame BTC for your decisions.

Dwaltster

They had money to pay dividends for 6 more months. This is probably so he can scoop up cheap BTC. Saylor was getting jealous of Trump playing the market and wanted to get in.

Roger33333

that was a funny video indeed but the fellow didnt reach the bottom, meaning BTC should move even lower hopefully

Ok-Astronaut4952

I’m like 90 percent BTC and have been holding for years lol. Doesn’t mean I can’t make fun of a stupid post

Forded_Fiction24

I don't get it, why would people have a bunch of cash sitting on the sidelines uninvested just sitting there losing purchasing to inflation in the first place? If you were being responsible, you were DCA'ing into BTC this whole time like myself

Crushrrr72

Just be patient all.... BTC rewards patience 🙂👍 we're all going to survive, we saw the energy boom of 2018 and crypto collapsed and then boomed 2021 ....same same. Retail is driving the AI boom FOMO.... People just chasing quick returns in AI.

BlazeDemBeatz

The OG Coinbase card was the best in its peak. 4% back on everything and convert to BTC

BlazeDemBeatz

I did this. Same approach. Started in 2020. Kept buying thru the FTX crash. Kept buying. Hit 2025 and BTC hit 120k. Watched my account balloon and took profit. Rinse and repeat. It’s a lot easier than watching the charts and panicking.

pjffletcher

This probably flips again once macro loosens or BTC gets a new narrative, but until then it’s competing for the same risk capital and losing.

anonps

Anyone that could go back in time would pile into AI stocks, not BTC.

Sufficient-Rent9886

i think some of it is rotation, but i also think people underestimate how much expectations matter. BTC getting ETFs, treasury adoption, and regulatory progress were huge narratives, but once they're priced in the market starts asking what's next? Meanwhile AI keeps putting up new headlines and earnings numbers every few months. That said, a 47% drawdown after a major run isn't exactly unusual for crypto, we've seen weirder stuff before. The thing i'm not fully convined of is that capital has permanently left for AI, a lot of investors chase whatever is outperforming right now, and that can change pretty fast if macro conditions shift or bitcoin finds a fresh catalyst. Feels more like a sentiment problem than a dead narrative to me.

SiweL_EttaL

Everyone doin like Saylor is the God of BTC, nobody tells hes not even the 2nd biggest holder. BTC will not crash to 1000$ or something like that people think just cause he sell.

Justinformation

Can't this be a strategy of his to buy even more BTC? Cause FUD by selling a little, and then buy a lot more when price is down? Or are companies not allowed to do that?

6DeliciousInches

Nah these comments don’t know what’s happening. The 2 day dump that started Monday at midnight EST was strictly the market reacting to Saylor selling 32 bitcoin, a week ago. He said he would sell and the market didn’t care. Then he actually did sell and the market didn’t care. In fact, he sold 32 in profit at $77150, when nobody even knew or noticed. Then he announced the he had sold, a week after the fact, and the price went down $15k in 2 days on pure bearphoria. Yes, it’s true, the reason BTC has gone down this week is simply because too many brain rotted retards are having “fun” selling it.

heyheyshinyCRH

No. Why would anyone dump their bag just because they offloaded some BTC? Did that news make you want to sell? Do you think others would panic sell after they heard it? I doubt it

TheDirtyOnion

Before the AI craze it was EVs, and before that it was biotech, and before that it was phones, and before that it was RE, and before that it was shale oil, and before that it was something else..... Investing in index funds ensures you always catch the next "unexpected" craze, and that is why index funds always win in the long term. Crypto had its craze, if you are investing now you missed the boat. My portfolio is mostly TQQQ and I am up about 185% over the past five years. BTC is up about 85% over the same period.

eToroTeam

In a cycle where rate cuts keep getting pushed out, does BTC still behave like a rate-sensitive asset or has that correlation broken down?

Coover117

Because Strategy sold BTC to pay STRC "dividends". Whether you hold STRC, MSTR, or BTC in any form ...the concern is that the engine is broken and it is a downward spiral.

ElsaKiras

The institutional story is the trade, just not the one retail wanted. ETFs let big money get BTC exposure without ever touching the rest of crypto, so the liquidity that used to spill into alts and pump the whole market now just sits in IBIT and dies there.

mvds74

Honestly, what is the point of these type of posts? People that know crypto and are serious about (investing in) it, already know when to buy and don't need you to tell them when to buy. Are you just shouting out to get noobs to buy, just to get more cash inflow, or what? These posts are getting just as annoying as the "BTC dropped x%, what caused this?" or the "Is BTC dead?" posts. /rant

IgotnoideawhatIsay

It’s obviously not the norm but money follows the hype. Currently the hype is in AI so everyone invests in that. They could return to bitcoin if that hype dies but I can’t see that because the returns of BTC are not big and quick enough. In the past you could gain more than 200% in 3 years if you’re lucky. Nowadays you’re lucky if you’re up 100%. People want to get rich and don’t care about fundamentals. The only saving grace is adaption from big institutions but so far only third world countries and niche companies do that.

RandomPlayerCSGO

Cause regular people don't care about macro, they buy what goes up, right now only tech stocks go up so people only care about that. When BTC is at ath again they will want to buy BTC again.

Sulth

Expect that someone who entered BTC at the same value of today in 2021 and DCAed would have outperformed someone who entered stock market the same day and DCAed.

PMmeuroneweirdtrick

Better money to be made elsewhere. Why wait 4 years when i can make returns today. There's no reason to buy BTC at the moment.

DustDirect2997

Fear by itself is not a signal. The useful part is whether fear shows up at a level where forced sellers are running out. If BTC is selling off while equities/AI are still bid, that is not automatically bullish divergence. It can also mean capital is choosing a different momentum lane. For me the setup only gets cleaner when price reclaims a level, not when the sentiment chart looks ugly.

DustDirect2997

The macro setup can be good and the trade can still be heavy. Those are different things. BTC is not only pricing liquidity, it is also pricing positioning. If everyone is already leaning bullish because “macro is perfect,” then the next marginal buyer matters more than the thesis. I would watch reclaim levels before narratives here. If price loses a level and cannot get back above it, the macro argument is not enough for short-term execution.

MillionMinerCOM

BTC needs an actual demand catalyst, not just 'narrative reset.' AI has real institutional revenue and earnings backing it up. crypto has ETF flows that are now reversing. rotation is happening because the AI trade has fundamentals attached, not just hopium. wait for the next halving cycle to flip the script

007Response

I hear you on the cycle thesis but I want to gently push back. There's no guarantee a 2028 bull run is coming. The 4-year pattern has worked so far, sure, but past pattern isn't future law. Markets are way more complex than halving leads to top leads to repeat. Macro liquidity, institutional money, regulation, leverage stacked everywhere, it all interacts in ways nobody really knows how to model cleanly. Next cycle is genuinely uncertain. I've actually been building something around this question. From scratch, in beta. The goal is to detect both small drops of around 10 percent and big ones of 40 percent or more before they happen. Receipts: on May 27 my system fired a warning and I posted it on my profile that same day so the timestamp couldn't be revised later. You can visit my profile for proof of the alert message. Alert: Date fired: 2026-05-27 Type / cause classified: external shock Lead-time window: 5 to 15 days (median \~9 days) Expected drawdown: at least −10% BTC dropped almost 13 percent from the signal at its lowest and is currently around minus 10 and a half percent. That sits inside the predicted window and at or beyond the expected drawdown floor. What makes it different is that it uses none of the indicators you find online. No RSI, no MACD, no on-chain metrics, no funding rate stuff, none of it. Completely different angle. I won't share the code or any inside details, that's intentional. But if more cases like this hold up over time and the system keeps producing more certainty, I'll start posting these test warnings on my Twitter account so anyone can follow along publicly. Important to be clear about this though. It's beta. One case means absolutely nothing. It could just as easily be luck. I need to see it across many more cycles and many different setups before I'd call any of this validated. Don't read this as buy or sell advice because it isn't. My honest take is don't listen to anyone, me included. Build your own view, size accordingly, and don't bet the farm on the cycle will save us. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. Patience is fine. Blind faith is expensive. Keep posting though, this kind of discussion is how people actually learn.

quintavious_danilo

Only because of the AI craze which took everyone by surprise. You act as if tripling your money in the stock market is the norm, these are extraordinary times right now. Ten years from now it might not be that way. BTC will still have its cycles and stay somewhat predictable. Stock won’t. Anyone who’s making money now is just lucky.

Gold-Improvement5887

Meme coins kinda ruined everything and since there are so many new projects, the inflow money gets very diluted. IMO everything's dead besides BTC and ETH

gigasawblade

May 18-th, about 25k BTC (a lot)

MonsutaReipu

previous bottoms were also marked by black swans that felt particularly catastrophic. fear is not at a maximum yet because relatively speaking, Bitcoin isn't in the shitter. It would take BTC going below 50k before people really started feeling the panic. Now me? My portfolio is down over 90% because I've been holding a lot of shitcoins. I'm fucking wrecked, and it can still get much worse from here for me.

SuchTrezorVeryCrypto

Hi there from the Trezor team 👋 First of all, that's a pretty incredible story and a very generous friend. If there's one thing we'd recommend, it's taking some time to learn about self-custody. Right now your Bitcoin is held with Revolut, which means you're trusting a third party to secure it for you. Many Bitcoiners eventually choose to move their BTC to a hardware wallet so they can hold their own keys and have full control over their funds. Since you're only holding Bitcoin, you might want to take a look at the Trezor Safe 5 Bitcoin-only edition. It's designed specifically for Bitcoin users and makes self-custody much more approachable for newcomers. That said, don't rush into anything. Spend some time learning how wallet backups, private keys, and hardware wallets work first. With 1 BTC, taking security seriously is absolutely worth it. And welcome to the rabbit hole 🟠

zmagickz

It started as a thing before every 4 years there is a halving meaning the amount of new btc everyday halves but today, that doesn't have as dramatic of a change on the effect of current liquidity vs after halving liquidity like it used to that being said I think there is some truth to the idea of causing a self-fulfilling prophecy, But I think general sentiment was that the 4 year cycle is dead because retail no longer moves BTC and halving doesn't cut btc by much anymore. I think AI stocks have pulled liquidity from BTC, and then a slight bear turn down turned into a big one from 4 year cycle prediction

DustDirect2997

The rotation is real, but I would separate narrative from trade execution. AI is where momentum capital is being rewarded right now. BTC is where people are trying to decide if the broken level becomes resistance or gets reclaimed. Those are different trades. If BTC can reclaim the breakdown level and hold it, the “AI ate crypto” take weakens fast. If every bounce gets sold, then yeah, crypto probably needs either a fresh catalyst or lower prices before attention comes back.

Patient_Craft2195

The struggle you're describing is the strategy working as intended. If buying at $70k after averaging $106k felt *good*, something would be wrong — you'd be ignoring real risk. Real question for you though: what's your plan if BTC sees $55-60k next month? Because that's the test most "I'll buy the dip" people fail. Having the answer pre-written removes 90% of the emotional decisions later.

Patient_Craft2195

Nobody knows the exact bottom, but there are two real historical floors worth watching instead of guessing: * **200-week MA: \~$62k** — has marked every major bottom since 2015. Currently a few thousand below price. * **Realized price: \~$53k** — the average cost basis of all BTC. The "everyone's underwater" line. Most cycles touch the 200wma. Severe bears (2018, 2022) wick the realized price too. PlanB just said he sees >50% probability we break both because holders in profit are still too high — meaning real capitulation hasn't happened yet. So the framework: $62k = base case, $53k = bad case, $45k = "global liquidity event" case. The "good time to buy" isn't a price, it's a schedule — DCA through the zone instead of trying to nail one number. Bottom-callers have a 100% historical fail rate in real time.

baIIern

This isn't about 32 BTC; it's about a broken narrative. They started selling Bitcoin and the market is pricing in future dumps from MSTR... At some point this will become a self fulfilling prophecy.

B17COIN

As low as possible until we all get to 1 BTC

Playful_Confection_9

Heard about it in school, when I started working I was like. Might buy 1 BTC for €500, which was like 1/3 of my salary and said F that.

shillxbt

love to see healthy and small portfolio growing that sounds actually sustainable, no "here I will buy 15 BTC on 37 credit cards". Much success!

siorge

If it does go below 20,000 in selling everything else to pile on BTC

John_Pig

I agree with you, but let's not forget the added value of clean BTC.

Easy_Teach_7764

lol. I've got a few BTC backed loans so not zen at all

PeeOnDusk

BTC this year*

warsponge

That's pretty cool, although I heard coinbase are not the most trustworthy to hold BTC for large amounts

bcyc

What people really want is for BTC to just go up. Its not that hard to understand lol.

Affectionate_Oil666

btc actually moves violently off small amounts of btc. market cap doesnt equate to how much monies is actually in the pot, it is simply the supply x current price. when ppl sell the price decrements rapidly. since the supply is small, it can move quickly to begin with. since a lot of btc is in cold storage it can move even more aggressively in either direction. **not saying MS caused btc to drop the way it did, just that there isnt even close to 1T in liquidity and how the price can move off small amounts. in fact if you watch the chart btc can move 1K in either direction based on selling/buying only 1 BTC. lol** **btc is still a good asset.**

Informal-Level-7924

Why would you downvote a rich young dude who hodls BTC?

DistributionOk2111

This time it did and i stopped my dca since october 25 Worked out, im just not sure when to get back in but probably i will get 0.1 BTC für around 5k€

IgotnoideawhatIsay

BTC isn’t investing it’s gambling. It’s a speculative asset without any value unlike a company.

nimm99jd

The big selling point to BTC was, "wait until mainstream adoption. The demand will be everywhere, etc." Now, it's as mainstream as it's ever been. Everyone knows Bitcoin, ETFs, etc., but still no one cares. No one actually spends BTC, they just buy and hold, and switch back to fiat if they make a profit.

Mammon84

So BTC dies off and ETH takes the crown Or BTC dies off and so does all of crypto. Hoping for 1 but kind of worried it will be 2

Vykard93

Looking at HYPE/BTC in trading view. Hype outperformed BTC by 1100%.

Informal-Level-7924

I am 21, what other 21 year olds you know who have 4.3 BTC?

Suitable_Acadia_190

Good advice. The LTV piece is the one thing that bites new borrowers hardest. Tell him to treat his loan-to-value ratio like a stop loss. If BTC drops and his LTV approaches the platform threshold, he either adds collateral or repays part of the loan. Waiting to see if it recovers is how collateralized positions get liquidated.

AutoModerator

Post is by: ganxiaozhe and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: https://cam.xiaozhe.dev/ This is my first time posting on Reddit, written by myself rather than an LLM. My English is not very good, so the content has been translated. Please excuse any awkward wording. I got into on-chain quantitative trading at the end of 2024, mainly on Solana, and was able to stay profitable for a while. But in the past few months, on-chain liquidity has become relatively weaker, while altcoins in the secondary market seem to be starting another wave, such as RAVE. So I tried to build a secondary-market anomaly monitoring system, hoping to catch some of these assets at an early stage. The tech stack is: * Development: Bun / TypeScript * Signal source: OKX REST + WebSocket * Databases: Redis and PostgreSQL The logic is similar to what I used in on-chain trading: if a token’s trading volume increases significantly within a certain period of time, it may be starting a one-sided move. In the secondary market, I currently use the following as trigger conditions: * 15m price movement * 15m volume expansion compared with recent averages * short-window ticker changes, as an early signal * spread and liquidity filters For example: the current 15m price movement must be at least 3.5%, and the current 15m trading volume must be at least 2.5x the average of the previous 20 candles. Although this is a very simple anomaly detection rule, I have always believed that simplicity is often the right direction. If something becomes too complicated, then either it is wrong, or the problem itself has been confused. After testing it for a while, I found a few problems: Signals before the US stock market opens are usually of lower quality. Sometimes they can even be interpreted as reverse signals. The current system mainly monitors 15m periods, so it usually only triggers when volume has already expanded. In some cases, however, larger players may accumulate quietly first, then attract retail traders during the high-volume move and sell into them. I do not yet have a good way to identify this. I am also still thinking about a few questions: * Should I add a broader market sentiment filter, such as short-term trends in BTC / ETH / TOTAL3? * Should different thresholds be used for tokens with different market caps and liquidity levels? * Should I add accumulation detection, instead of only volume spike detection? * Is this system worth open-sourcing? Any feedback on the detection logic, system architecture, UI presentation, or market structure would be very welcome. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

JSTN_FPV

it went down because i sold my 0.00000024365 BTC

darokk

Exactly like he did now. Desensitize the market over time. This was the first instance of him selling (in years) so the reaction is extreme. In a year or so when it's the 15th sale and he is still is business there won't be a reaction. I assume he will announce a buy greater than 32 BTC in the coming days as well.

Mooks79

It’s not weird at all, this is a general crypto market fall due to Saylor selling some BTC and spooking the market.

colemusic1

I mean it tends to kinda work in a hybrid it seems. Some days BTC for example seems to work with macro loosening and NASDAQ/SPX going up, other days it just completely ignores it. The whole institutionalisation of IBIT has changed everything to be honest, and the $3B+ outflows we’ve seen in stock markets out of BTC is pretty significant tbh. But yeah you’re right it is somewhat decoupled in general, but lately it’s literally seemingly completely decoupled. Semi’s and other tech stocks are ripping while BTC is plummeting. I’m guessing a huge amount of rotation is happening there

AlberGro

7 tps bro. BTC is never going to replace fiat.

quintavious_danilo

Agreed, not sure why everyone is so convinced you can’t make money with BTC anymore. Does it have rapid surges like before? Maybe not that violently like it did but you can easily double or even triple your money if you buy … well now. 🤷🏻‍♂️