BTC

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Post is by: TrenVantage and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/TrenVantage/comments/1sq0tfu/bitcoin_to_target_new_ath_technical_analysis/ Quick post on the potential of BTC to push towards new ATHs. This post is only taking a look at the Monthly chart from a macro perspective. The concept is simple, holding the move that formed the previous ATH sets them up to form a new ATH. This is based on general trend analysis. **Concept:** The longer bitcoin can hold this current range above 58k, the chances increase for pushing towards new highs.  When we think about "the move that formed the high" we see something like this...  Realistically it might look more like this if you want to draw each trend individually.  The concept here remains the same. Holding this move between 71k and 58k sets BTC up to take out its current ATH and form a new higher high. I think it helps to look at these as two different trends within a larger trend  Essentially the logic would be, if bitcoin can continue to hang on and gain true upwards momentum, without seeing a significant rejection in the higher (orange) trend. Then the push for new ATH becomes easier. Bouncing off the levels and replaying them is fine, what they dont want is to see 82 slap them down significantly and lost the subsequent weekly levels being played on lower timeframes. **Monthly Steps:** 1. The first step in a push towards new ATH is to regain the trend at 71k. This was a significant monthly that they lost back in Feb. The start for a push up begins with April closing above 71k. 2. The second step is 82k. This will be the first real test for BTC going back to new highs. If they can push above 82k, I would suspect the run up to 103k happens very quickly. 3. Once 103k is regained on the monthly timeframe, new highs will be inevitable. 4. Target 165k  **Taking a look at the Weekly:** We can see they are currently playing this significant weekly level of 78k. This was the final weekly support for the trend that carried them to the current ATH. A reaction here is expected  Due to how markets work, seeing a rejection at 78 is not bad until they go on to lost both 72k and 65k again. If we see them bounce off 65k then 82 truly becomes the short term target. Gaining 82 sets them up to target 103 and gaining 103 sets them up to target all time highs.  Weekly progression has them targeting 93k if they can get past 78k. Holding 72 and 65 sets them up to this. 82k monthly is in the way so would expect a reaction but gaining that shows true potential to continue higher. They are currently forming this W pattern which is bullish in nature. Holding 72, 70 and 65 on a retest sets them up to continue higher. **Indicators:** The indicator used in this analysis is called TrenVantage TRADER. It automatically plots the trends as well as key support and resistance levels. This is an outlook on BTC forming new ATH and the potential it currently has. Yes there is downside risk, yes it can go either way. However the concept is thus. As long as BTC can hold this move that formed the current ATH, new ATHs are in play. For reference here is a chart showing the downside risk on BTC  Happy to hear your thoughts, comments, questions, and analysis in the comments section! Cheers! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

ieatvegans

If it helps, stocks are gonna dump on Monday. Of course, BTC will further dump, but still.

moonRekt

Glad I sold all my AAVE for my Audi a couple months ago. Spending money on cars is stupid but sometimes not as stupid as HODLing. Really only trusting BTC and ETH right now

theplainuser

I’d say don’t rush into it expecting quick profits, most people lose at the beginning. It helped me to just focus on BTC/ETH at first instead of jumping into random alts, and spend time understanding how the market moves. Also, staring at charts all day gets exhausting really fast. I trade on 15m using pivot + RSI, and at some point I ended up making a small alert bot for myself just to stay a bit more disciplined. Still learning myself, but focusing on risk management and keeping things simple helped way more than trying to learn everything at once.

theplainuser

I’d say don’t try to watch charts all day, it gets exhausting really fast. Personally I found it easier to focus on BTC/ETH at the beginning instead of jumping into random alts. I trade on 15m using pivot + RSI, and at some point I got tired of constantly checking charts, so I made a small bot that alerts me near levels. Still testing it, but it helped me stay more disciplined and not overtrade.

Ge_Yo

Same here. I think BTC’s evolution will include ways to earn from it without wrapping or changing its core properties. Would you consider staking it or using it in DeFi?

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Saylor has put himself in a position where he needs to raise an every increasing amount of capital or his whole position collapses. I called it the treadmill of doom over a year ago. The creation of STRC and the massive amount of issuance is likely the final speed of the treadmill before he falls off. It’s never the first 50 Billion of capital raised that’s the problem, it’s the specter of having to raise another 50 Billion more and then 100 Billion after that to keep things going that becomes the problem. They owe 1.2 Billion a year in dividends, like 1.4 Billion after this past week. They only raised a little over 20 Billion this past year, meaning over 5% of their on going capital raises are earmarked for dividends only, not adding more BTC. A few more months of this level of STRC issuance and that might reach over 10%. This is where the problem starts. They must continually accelerate how much capital they raise just to keep up with the ever increasing dividend obligations. And at some point the market isn’t gonna be there for them to do that. And then they are screwed. Also keep in mind there are only 21 million Bitcoin, and MSTR already owns 800k of them after this week. That’s 4%. They started this journey 5 and a half years ago, and the way exponentials work, they are actually closer to the end of their Bitcoin journey than they are to the beginning of it. It will inevitably implode, the only question is how big do they get before that happens. Is that 10% of all Bitcoin? 15, 20%? The more they buy, the more illiquid it becomes and the more likely they are the only real buyers.

EstimateIll4262

I just could fnd where to out address in. On CDC. i found it. but ran in to Authenticator issue since I changed phones. So instead of resetting the 2fa. and maybe locking my CDC account. I just bought BTC on OKX exchange. and when it clears for transfer/selling(they claim 7 days) I will send to the renewal address. and hope for the best.

HorseBatteryStapleNo

I like your plan. My only issue is that selling at $90K seems to leave money on the table vs. the real risk you are still taking on. Keep in mind that in the US, selling in the 0% tax rate will generally move other income from the 12% to the 22% bracket (so not as free as it seems). If you are in the 22% bracket and the sale moves you to the 24% bracket, not as big a deal, even with the 3.8% NIIT. You could divide 3 BTC into annual tranches yielding $40,000 each: willing to sell at 90K, 120K, 150K etc. In some years, you might not sell at all; in bull market years, you might sell two tranches, taxes be damned. This strikes a middle ground between HODL and your pragmatic financial goal.

BlackDog990

Yeah I mean honestly there is virtually no reason to pay that down quickly. It's as close to free money as you're ever going to get for your whole life (no, we're not gonna see rates that low again absent REALLY bad news for global economy.) Whether you were talking about selling stock or BTC ky advise would be to let that balance ride and grow wealth in other vehicles. Heck you could dump a pile of cash in an online savings account and basically wash the 2.6% rate. Just not a wise move if you're looking to maximize your wealth, mostly an emotional "i dont have a mortgage!" Vibe.

EstimateIll4262

Normally i would agree. But i dont need to understand how the ibner working are. Just to pay a little $95 payment. But it seems some of you feel that way. And of thats what it takes to send some BTC for payment. BTC will never be a mainstream payment source

rawfuelinjection

Because BTC not dead

Skotland85

The missing value here is what is your financing rate ? If you have a mortgage rate of around 3% - I would not sell an appreciating asset to pay off an asset that likely will not appreciate anywhere close to 1 BTC over long run. When 1 BtC is the price of your remaining loan balance - then sell that to pay off your mortgage.

Ok_Rent_2937

My portfolio is $4M, BTC is only about 5-6% of it. I am not dependent on BTC hitting $1M to be able to retire. In other words, I don’t need a home run, singles will do nicely

DwightsShirtGuy

If that’s what works for you I have no argument against that. For me, I’d rather just pay off the loan. That interest is costing you more and more over time. BTC returns are unpredictable, and add capital gains into the mix. I’d be curious to see a mortgage statement (balance remaining, interest rate, amortization table) and run a comparison of taking the money you plan on using/have used to buy BTC, including CGT, compared using that money to pay down the loan. If it’s close, I’d ditch the risk and tax burden. But everyone has a different situation.

rodmandirect

You can, though. Today, you could borrow about $3500 at an 11% exchange rate, you’d be paying about $1.10 per day for the privilege of having that loan, until you pay it back. If the value of BTC goes up substantially, you’ll get some of that BTC back. If it goes way down, like say below $35,000, and you can’t pay that loan back, and you have no more BTC to put in it to make up, you’ll get liquidated.

wigglytail

No! It's great they are doing this ( i don't know anything about this service but the more BTC has practical use the better) and you're great for trying to figure it out. I don't know CDC, I assume it's some sort of exchange? If you can make payments or "withdraw" to a wallet do that either directly to this subscription or to a private wallet if you have one (if not I would recommend BlueWallet for you it's easy and safe and it will get the job done). If you cannot, try to buy some BTC on an exchange that does do this, or from a peer2peer platform like peach ( I buy my BTC this way ), which you will still need a private wallet for. And as always: Don't trust, verify.

Ok_Rent_2937

I am not interested in taking the risk of borrowing against any volatile asset, be it Bitcoin or stocks. I had a clear plan of accumulating BTC, and then selling at high price down the road to help pay my house loan faster, and that’s the plan I wish to stick to with consistency

forsenbois21

Its a solid one, but based on the cycle theory, I don't think we'll see BTC above 85k this year. Until next year.

Keats852

I would diversify into Bitcoin spot ETFs, MSTR (which has traded above Premium), and then maybe do BITX starting 2.5 years from now, when BTC is back to 70k (from the expected pullback, if you believe in the cycle).

EstimateIll4262

if i send lets say .00127 BTC. Will the receiver receive that exact amount? Or will my fee be taken out of that? of does my fee get paid for on my end(my account) I ask because I dont want to send more then I have to pay for this $95 renewal

EstimateIll4262

bc1qymwm............................. Looks like a BTC address. I just dont know what it asks for SATS?? Even the QR code has a BTC symbol in the center.

EstimateIll4262

I dont know why the renewal place is even asking for SATS. The QR code is clearly BTC.

EstimateIll4262

EXACTLY!!!! I have held crypto for 5 years. just buy and sell. and stake. I have never used it to pay. and now that I tried, its not so easy. Its much more clear from the replies here and Google AI. but the renewal just assumed anyone would understand how to do it. Which clearly I didnt. BTC will never be mainstream payment source. Just buy and hold and make sure to sell when it reaches a point you are satisfied with. Thats what I plan to do with mine.

justcurious3287

Don’t overthink. Overthinking is the enemy of a crypto investor. Your job is to buy and hold as much BTC as you can. Worry about nothing else.

Kayfabe_Everywhere

We are so early on bitcoin that even a small DCA over time will put you in a position that you never have to sell. To get to fiat you'll probably lend BTC, collect interest in BTC, sell that BTC for fiat and never touch your principle. If you wait long enough there's a strong likelihood there will be no fiat. Everything will just be priced in SATs or a crypto currency pegged to the SAT. Paying for things will be even easier at that point because you don't have to deal with selling a crypto asset and paying taxes. You'll just transact everything directly in the crypto universe.

AlgonikHQ

The friction vs fuel distinction is a good reframe, that’s a cleaner way to communicate the setup and more honest about what the signal actually implies for sizing. On ETH/BTC as a leading indicator, I haven’t backtested it formally across full cycles, I use it more as a regime filter than an entry signal. The way I’ve thought about it: when the ratio is in a sustained downtrend it tells you capital is rotating into BTC dominance, and alt setups have a much lower completion rate in that regime regardless of local technicals. When the ratio turns and holds a higher low it signals the rotation is starting, and the same technical setups that fail in the downtrend regime start completing. The lead time question is the hard part. Anecdotally it’s been anywhere from a few days to 2-3 weeks before price follows in past cycles, which makes it useful as a filter but not a timing tool. I haven’t found a reliable way to tighten the confirmation window beyond waiting for a second higher low on the ratio. The 0.0308 level you’re watching, is that a structural support from earlier in the 2026 range or a derived level from the model? Curious whether it’s a price memory level or something calculated.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

EstimateIll4262

well I will see in 7 days. if OKX works. I will leave the funds in Kraken just in case. I will leave my CDC BTC alone.

EstimateIll4262

YES!!! CDC fees are stupid. I just checked on OKX exchange. To send that amount of BTC. the fee is 0.000015 BTC

MoverWhoStacksSats

lol, I get it I’m the new guy with no history but truth is I’m just trying to figure out Reddit. Just obviously started, thought I would just give some genuine encouragement to that person before I ran out the door to church. But what ever you think of me or my original comment the fact is the fact getting .5 BTC is worth celebrating for that person.

PeacefulNA

Thanks! The invalidation criteria point is exactly why I built the system the way I did. Most calls skip that part because it forces accountability. On the funding level, fair pushback, and you're right. -0.000243 is mild negative, not extreme. The squeeze setup is there but it's not a coiled spring. I'd frame it less as "violent squeeze incoming" and more as "shorts aren't getting paid enough to hold through a move higher", the friction is low rather than the fuel being high. Subtle but meaningful difference in how I'm sizing the position. The ETH/BTC ratio point I fully agree with. I have it in the model but I've probably underweighted it in how I communicated the thesis here. If BTC dominance keeps climbing, that's my earliest warning before price confirms you named the right tripwire. I'm watching 0.0308 as the line. If it breaks down from here rather than turning, the whole rotation narrative collapses regardless of what the technicals say locally. On the backtest question, honest answer: I can't give you a clean historical accuracy number on 5/5 window agreement setups specifically. The model is less than 90 days old and the confluence has only appeared a handful of times in that window. What I can say is that in those instances, the directional call was correct but the magnitude varied significantly, which is consistent with "the direction is readable, the size of the move isn't." The 68% confidence reflects that uncertainty; it's not a number I'd round up to "probably works." If you've backtested ETH/BTC ratio turns as a leading indicator across cycles I'd genuinely be interested in how you've operationalized it. Entry signal, confirmation window, how long the lead time typically is before price follows.

EstimateIll4262

I have such a small amount of BTC. I never bothered to move to a hardware wallet

RetiredAvocado

You'd be paying 0.0002 to 0.0004 BTC in fees for each send out from that exchange. That's a ridiculously high fee. That's one more reason not to use exchange as a wallet.

EstimateIll4262

Much needed living in Thailand. and a monthly is $25 per month on app. Only option. But on desktop you can do this stupid BTC payment for $95 annually. but after all this. I should have just paid $300

EstimateIll4262

It seems so easy to just send from CDC. Now that I found the area to do it. But I am NOT resetting the 2fa. I heard some nightmares stories about accounts on lock. and CS being very slow to help. Right now my CDC is fine. I can transfer funds in and out. use my Card. buy and sell crypto. I will be OK. nt sending crypto to another wallet. But hopefully after OKX exchange cleats my $120 BTC purchase. I can send to the renewal address and it will work........I hope

EstimateIll4262

This is perfect. Because i just bought 120 worth of BTC. And was wondering how close i can get to $95. I will just take the SATS amount they ask for and move the decimal.

EstimateIll4262

I tried avoiding CDC. Where i hold BTC. Bought 120 of BTC on OKX exchange. But can't send since the Buy has a temp hold This is a nightmare for a tiny $95 payment. BTC will never be mainstream based on tge hoops to jump through.

liftcookrepeat

You can send BTC in fractions, sats are just small units of BTC, 127k sats is about 0.00127 BTC. Use the correct network and format, some apps don't support certain QR types like Lighting. Try copying the wallet address manually and send that exact BTC amount. Keep in mind fees and network type, sending on the wrong network can lose funds. Check if the payment is Lighting or on chain first.

AlertCrab9829

Ten years. Ten years of buying tiny fractions when I could. Skipping nights out. Ignoring the noise. Watching charts rise, crash, “die,” and come roaring back. Ten years of being told I was late… then early… then stupid… then lucky… then stupid again. Today, I hit 0.1 BTC. To some people, that’s nothing. To me, it’s proof of something bigger: consistency beats timing, patience beats hype, and conviction beats fear. I didn’t get here with a lump sum. No windfalls. No perfect trades. Just showing up, over and over, through every cycle. This isn’t the finish line. It’s a checkpoint. But after a decade in the game… I can finally say I own a piece of the future.

Suspicious-Local-901

Send your btc from CDC to a hardware or in this case, software wallet maybe better, try bluewallet for instance. This wallet will recognize the QR code that you mention. But maybe, like some have mentioned here, this might be way to early and maybe a bit complicated for you. So yeah, learn a bit more about BTC and sats first. You’ll get there ;)

pezdal

Sounds like you need a lot of help. Here is only a little: In the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, the "**satoshi**" is the **smallest fractional unit of Bitcoin**. Like the penny is to the dollar: 1 dollar = 100 pennies (never changes) 1 BTC = 100,000,000 Satoshis (never changes) There is **another cryptocurrency confusingly named Satoshis (SATS)**. It's exchange rate changes all. the time. My advice is to ignore this memecoin (unless you accidentally bought some). Someone asking for payment in Bitcoin is almost certainly not asking for this BRC-020 token, and **the addresses of one won't work on the other.**

EstimateIll4262

Its legit. It allows CC payment through Google Play. but at 3x more. BTC is the preferred method now. But just a pain to do I found the send to wallet area in CDC. and it even allowed me to scan the renewal QR. the issue now is before I can send. CDC asks for my google authentcator number. and since I changed phones i dont think its setup anymore.

decentralised_cash

I am not sure about half of the things you're referring to. But I can tell you, the **only** thing you need to send Bitcoin somewhere is: 1. Bitcoin in a non-custodial wallet of yours, and 2. The receiving party's wallet address (likely `bc1q...`, maybe `1...`). That's it! You should withdraw your BTC from the exchange you have it on to a non-custodial wallet. BlueWallet (on iOS/Android) is a good choice. Then send the Bitcoin onwards to the intended recipient's address.

yes_manequine

"I think I don't need to develop on this one." Develop a command of the English language maybe? Also? You clearly don't know much about the block chain given the referencing of Shiba, Hyper, Doge, BTC, ETH, Tether, USDC As if it is all interchangeable

SpontaneousDream

Yep. I've pulled off some of my wBTC but at the same time I think I still want to leave some there simply because ETH has (and will continue) to perform very poorly against BTC. There is no world in which this trash should be almost $300 BILLION in market cap when exploits like yesterday occurs on the chain over and over again, even a decade later after launch. People will simply move their money elsewhere (and they should).

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Post is by: ShockCatOnSol and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1spvbk8/fear_greed_at_27_btc_holding_75k_while_smart/ The market is bleeding quietly today. Not dramatically. BTC holding $75K while alts leak tells you this is controlled pressure, not panic liquidation. Today’s full signal breakdown: BTC — HOLD. Conviction 61/100. 2:1 R/R. Volume at $47.9B with no capitulation spike. Sellers are not overwhelming buyers at this level. Watch $72,400 as the line that changes everything. ETH — HOLD. Conviction 44/100. Underperforming BTC on the ratio but structure hasn’t broken. $2,200 is the critical support. Below that flips to SELL. SOL — BUY. Conviction 58/100. 3:1 R/R. Entry $82–$88.50. Target $138. Most active blockchain in crypto trading at a 60% discount from its high. Ecosystem volume holding despite macro fear. BOME — SELL. Conviction 22/100. 17% green candle with 147% volume-to-market-cap. That is not a breakout — that is distribution into retail excitement. Someone needed an exit and retail provided the door. PNUT — HOLD. Conviction 48/100. +3.43% on a red market day with 59% volume-to-market-cap. Genuine relative strength when everything else bleeds. Watch $0.052 support. Fear at 27 is historically where patient capital gets positioned. Not where it exits. Not financial advice. Signal over noise. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Asleep_Onion

The exponential growth already happened. It went from being worth pennies to tens of thousands of dollars. There is no ability for it to grow exponentially from here. Even if BTC became the only world currency, which is a really big "if", it could only go 40x at the most, because that's how much money there is in the world.

AlgonikHQ

Solid writeup, the invalidation criteria at the end is what separates this from most posts in this sub. One thing worth stress-testing: the Apr 7-13 analog assumes similar liquidity conditions, but funding at -0.000243 is relatively mild negative — not the kind of extreme that historically precedes violent short squeezes. The squeeze setup is there but the fuel might be limited. The ETH/BTC ratio bouncing off lows is the signal I’d weight most heavily here. That ratio has been the leading indicator for alt rotation in every cycle, if it holds and turns, the technicals follow. If BTC dominance keeps climbing despite the macro rotation narrative, that’s your earliest warning before price confirms. 68% confidence with explicit assumptions and clear invalidation levels is more intellectually honest than most trading content online. What’s the model’s historical accuracy on similar 5/5 window agreement setups, have you been able to backtest that specific confluence?

RetiredAvocado

Exchange is not a wallet. Never pay with, or receive from others, in your exchange account. But whatever, fine you can send from there if you don't care. Ideally send it to your own wallet. A decent one, like sparrow, or blue or electrum. I don't use cdc or whatever so you need to go to their help pages and read up on how to withdraw bitcoin. Unfortunately the scammers took the sats name and made a shitcoin with it. Sats or satoshis are indeed bitcoin and it causes confusion. As for your renewal, why can it only be paid in bitcoin? Have you paid for it in bitcoin before? It's fine if you did, there are legit ones that take BTC. But are you getting maybe scammed? Again you should not pay for anything from an exchange account, especially if it's considered gambling or adult or torrents, etc. Exchange may close your account depending on whom you pay. Always send out to your own wallet.

EstimateIll4262

If it's just BTC. I have some on my CDC exchange. I can send frok there. If i can find where to copy/paste wallet address. I only opened other accounts because the renewal listed SATS around 127k worth. But the QR code has the BTC symbol

EstimateIll4262

If i can find where to copy and paste the renewal wallet address. I will send $95 worth of BTC and be done. But i can't find that. I dont think I need a course of crypto just for that?

RetiredAvocado

Generally bitcoin on exchanges is always BTC/USD. If you see sats, it is probably an altcoin https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/sats-ordinals Buy the right thing. On OKX this is bitcoin. https://www.okx.com/en-us/trade-spot/btc-usd Other things are not bitcoin.

EstimateIll4262

I am. I don't claim to know what i am doing. Hence the question. I just have crypto. And its been sitting. I never sent any. I let CDC hold my holdings. But i need to renew a subscription. That for some reason only takes BTC now.

dca-bot

I once bought a laptop for 0.28 BTC...

krakensupport

LFG! Next stop 1 BTC?

nicknice77

Real estate made a 30% return over 3 years so not bad … but obviously not as good as if I held on to the BTC!

EstimateIll4262

On my crypto wallet. it has Buy, Sell, Deposit and Send. I click send. it has a QR scanner which doesnt recognize the BTC QR code. or an spot to input Name, phone, or email. But nothing for wallet address?

Silasurf

Man, there is no more purposes needed. Bitcoin is not important because of “its purposes”, its importance relies on the unimportance and unfairness of everything else. Bitcoin would go to zero the moment corruption, hidden tax, selective taxation, miss appropriation of government funds and several other disgusting unfair and rigged societal aspects disappear. Do you really believe these societal features will soon disappear? 😂 I don’t know much about life, but I can sense you have not studied Bitcoin much. I have studied BTC since 2015. And I have no idea what it is and still so much more to learn. Bitcoin is a mystery to all of us. It’s like a mysterious virus that no one has been able to stop. It’s almost like the elite within itself tried creating something completely anthithetical to what it always strived for because it was stumping the newer elite members. Almost like the same thing that happened back when Jakub Fugger dynasty was taken over by the new front office of Amschel Rothschild. There is a new dynasty starting, and the old dynasty was not very happy in the beginning, but it’s starting to realize there is no way to stop the imminent rise of the new new world order. I think before we even start studying bitcoin, we must first start studying “not bitcoin” meaning the disgraced monetary system that made bitcoin so important to begin with. Studying Bitcoin is a multidisciplinary and multigenerational process because its beginnings are so occult and sha256 is a military grade weapon hard to crack inside. It’s permissionless and distributed resilient nature is also something extremely hard to grasp. Oh and “physical bitcoins” is stock market terminology. You mean Self Custody pure Bitcoin, actually. If you gonna hold actual btc in Coinbase or Binance you have no BTC, you’re just donating them your wealth. Get a coldcard hardware wallet for your bitcoin brother. You will thank me few years from now

FeelingVanilla2594

Men have tugged on the heart strings of the masses many times for persuasion: “…existential threat unlike anything in Bitcoin’s history” “…defend the ecosystem against those who would prefer to do nothing” “I’d rather freeze 5.6M dormant BTC than let hackers have them” Migrating bitcoin to PQ addresses is doing something. Giving people a choice is correct. But the freezing bitcoin part is difficult for everyone to agree with. There will be an effect on the market. You argue that it’s the end of times, we argue it’s a short term pain and redistribution moment that doesn’t warrant such a drastic measure, one that Lopp says himself he doesn’t like, as if he’s being a reluctant pragmatist. It’s not doing nothing. It’s choosing the path towards a free market.

EstimateIll4262

Thats my issue. On CDC. I scan the BTC QR code the renewal sent me. and CDC doesnt recognize it. They also have a wallet address to send to. But no clue where on CDC i can copy and paste it. I opened a Kraken and a OKX and verifed and funded both. just to realize Kraken doesnt sell SATS, OKX does but at that crazy rate which makes no sense. I habe enough actual BTC in my crypto exchange. but just no clue how to send to another wallet address.

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Post is by: PeacefulNA and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1spueld/i_built_a_90day_eth_model_using_data_ai_it_just/ I've spent the last 3 months building a personal system for reading macro + technical signals on ETH. I combine data analysis with AI (Claude Opus) to stress-test my reasoning, not replace it. The AI flags what I miss. This post is me following my own advice out loud. This is not a prediction. It's a calculation with explicit assumptions. **The 90-day context** ETH is +8.78% over 90 days. 20 up days vs 12 down days. Price is currently \~$2,326, just above the EMA200 ($2,314) but below EMA20 ($2,338) and EMA50 ($2,354). That's a post-correction base-building regime, not a breakdown. The March Iran-war drawdown took ETH to $1,972. That was the capitulation low. A ceasefire-driven rally followed, peaking at $2,434 on Apr 17. The current pullback is the *third higher low* in the recovery sequence. Structure is intact. The ETH/BTC ratio (0.0308) is bouncing off 2026 lows. Average 90-day sentiment: 46 (Hopeful). Macro sentiment index: -12. The market absorbed the geopolitical shock and is rotating back toward risk. This matches the data. **The tactical setup** Entry zone: **$2,260–2,320** Signals I'm watching: * MACD bullish cross forming (histogram: +0.081) * Bollinger Band squeeze at 2.54% width compression before expansion * Funding rate negative (-0.000243) shorts are paying longs, squeeze setup * Fear & Greed at 27 (Fear zone) historically favorable entry territory * RSI14 at 38 oversold leaning, not extreme The Apr 7–13 analog: post-spike compression resolved +7.5% higher. The current structure rhymes with that. The AI model flags a Day 3 shakeout toward \~$2,270 — which is actually my preferred entry, not a warning. My 7-day forecast shows +6.8% expected move from the current level. I'm sharing this not as gospel but because the signal alignment between the model's triggers and what I observe technically is unusually strong. Confidence of 58% means the model itself is not certain and I'm not treating it as certainty either. I ran this against war news, macro events, and funding data for the full 90-day window. The geopolitical noise has been priced in. The setup looks clean. **Where I'm wrong if this fails** * A close below $2,200 invalidates the higher-low structure * New geopolitical escalation not in the 90-day data window * BTC dominance continuing to rise rather than rotating into alts * Funding squeeze resolves down instead of up (rare but possible) Not financial advice. I'm posting this to think out loud and get pushback. If you see a flaw in the logic, say it plainly. Thank you for reading. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Independent_Head3818

You need to convert those SATS to regular BTC first - 127k sats is actually 0.00127 BTC (just move decimal 8 places). The exchange showing 6 billion sats for $95 sounds way off, maybe they have different unit or something wrong there. For sending from CDC, look for option to send specific amount in BTC rather than dollars, then just paste the wallet address they gave you. Most exchanges let you send any fraction of BTC you want.

AdEuphoric5133

*--> I have around 0.1 on my trezor. The rest I’ll move the asap there…* Reading that makes me believe you have 0.4 BTC on an exchange ... I hope I'm wrong

_alwin

So he has just 0.1 BTC actually…

paokara777

> different airports are starting to accept bitcoin payments Can you explain this? What in the airport accepts BTC payments, do you mean vendors?

VastPresence2412

Oh I certainly have studied it and thoroughly believe in its philosophy, I have some BTC self custody but at the time of starting BTC I saw the benefits of the Roth IRA. Most of my capital is in FBTC but I more and more I am starting to believe that if BTC does go to these heights I think it will, physical BTC will have to have more purposes, therefor more sought after.

_Genesis_Block

So you keep 0.4 BTC on exchange?

BristlingB

Don't get greedy, just buy and hold BTC It may be "boring" to some people but just learn to love it when your sats number goes up Focus only on that

TheresNoSecondBest

I also came to this sub for financial advice some time ago and I'm now 100% in BTC.

morgan03000

I tested Kraken Pro during the free trial week to compare purchase costs, and honestly I found the BTC spread to be higher than on Bitstack. That surprised me, so I repeated the test several times on different days, with the same result. The screenshot was taken in the same minute: Kraken in black, Bitstack in white. Bitstack exceptionally had 0% fees that day instead of 1%, but even without that promo, Bitstack still seems more attractive to me. But I’m wondering whether a ‘standard’ purchase via the Kraken app might lead to a higher spread, perhaps…?! https://ibb.co/xKkG0HFg https://ibb.co/5XnscrfT Thanks for your helpful feedback — by the way, what do you think of the comment above suggesting optimizing purchases on Kraken with dca.bot?

skydiver19

How about someone works out your identity from all your posts and comments on Reddit, then decides do come to your home, ties you up and forces you to transfer your BTC or does it to a family member. And before you say anything this has happened multiple times. It’s not like any a bank where they can reverse the transaction and trace it etc

ethangyt

By that definition the US stock market should follow the same trend. Red light green light yooo Baron and Eric load up on puts and calls! Then use that insider trading money to build a BTC mining center.

arcanestre

3 years ago (jan 2023), bought 1 full for 17.5k average. sold it throughout the same year to finance my recently started business, thought i could use the revenues to buy back my BTC. Company went bankrupt. Lost all my funds 😂

MoverWhoStacksSats

This is genuinely a values question as much as a financial one, and you already answered it yourself — you said holding an ETF is against what you believe. That matters. The tax-deferred growth in a Roth IRA is real and valuable. But an ETF is a promise from a institution that they hold Bitcoin on your behalf. Physical BTC in self-custody is the actual asset. Those are fundamentally different things. If you’re negative at $100k entry and there’s no tax hit, this is probably the cleanest window you’ll get to make that switch. The Roth IRA tax advantage is nice but Bitcoin in a Roth still lives inside the traditional financial system you’re trying to get outside of. Not financial advice — just how I think about the difference between exposure to Bitcoin and actually owning it.

_JamesDooley

Bunch of BS. BTC is EXTREMELY volatile, it could have gone up to 180k within a blink of an eye just like it's gone down to 70k, and had that happened, you'd be running your mouth here with the exact opposite logic.

Jealous-Reindeer-610

Earn it, I will pay a regular local babysitter & someone to regularly mow my lawns for Sats , or internationally people want digital services like hosting, domain names, servers ,content writers or graphic artists & coders - BTC is borderless, personally I want to start locally , but who will work for sats?

PmMeCuteDogsThanks_

BTC was never truly decentralised. Any 51% can make any decision they want 

Bitcoin-ModTeam

You would be in the green if you would have bought bitcoin at the absolute peak of 2021. Unfortunately you invested in premined and centralized altcoins that were only created to enrich their founders and venture capitalist insiders. Look at the ETH to BTC price chart from 2021 until now: https://i.redd.it/zf4ao9aweiug1.png Look at the ADA to BTC price chart from 2021 until now: https://i.redd.it/m5mxw4jak4wg1.png ETH reached its all time high against bitcoin on June 11, 2017. ADA reached its all time high against bitcoin on January 3, 2018. It's unlikely that either of them will ever reach their all time high against bitcoin ever again.

Rare_Rich6713

Most people rather choose to turn a blind eye until it hits lol. Making BTC quantum resistant isn’t the only issue here but migration too, if they can integrate something like QVM to allow coding in any programming language that would be better. Also Google has set deadline for post quantum encryption and it’s 3 years away.

qlp79qlp

I wonder how many wallets/ coins are lost and will be lost during the time 🤔 Let’s do this step-by-step with **real current numbers** and make it simple. --- # 1) Divide all Bitcoin among all humans Max supply of Bitcoin = **21,000,000 BTC** World population ≈ **8,000,000,000 people** ### Bitcoin per person [ \frac{21,000,000}{8,000,000,000} = 0.002625 \text{ BTC per person} ] **Each human gets:** 👉 **0.002625 BTC** --- ## Convert that to USD (today) Current BTC price ≈ **$87,724** ([CoinMarketCap][1]) [ 0.002625 \times 87,724 \approx 230.5 \text{ USD} ] ### Result If Bitcoin were equally split today: * **Per person:** 0.002625 BTC * **Value per person:** ≈ **$230** This is a mind-blowing stat: Owning **0.0026 BTC** would be the “equal share of humanity”. --- # 2) Price of a simple coffee in USA Typical basic Starbucks brewed coffee: * **$2.95 – $3.45** for a simple coffee ([Flavor365][2]) We’ll use **$3.20 average**. --- # 3) Coffee price in Bitcoin (today) BTC price ≈ $87,724 [ \text{Coffee BTC price} = \frac{3.20}{87,724} ] [ = 0.0000365 \text{ BTC} ] ### Coffee today * **Coffee = 0.0000365 BTC** * **Coffee = $3.20** --- # 4) Add Bitcoin transaction fee (important) Typical Bitcoin on-chain fee fluctuates a lot. Realistic “normal day” assumption: * ~ **$3 – $10 fee** * We’ll use **$5 average** (very realistic mid value) ### Fee in BTC [ \frac{5}{87,724} = 0.0000570 \text{ BTC} ] --- # 5) Total cost of coffee paid with BTC (on-chain) | Item | USD | BTC | | --------- | --------- | ----------------- | | Coffee | $3.20 | 0.0000365 BTC | | Fee | $5.00 | 0.0000570 BTC | | **Total** | **$8.20** | **0.0000935 BTC** | --- # 🚨 The shocking reality When paying on Bitcoin base layer: * Coffee price: **$3.20** * Fee: **$5.00** * You pay **2.5× the coffee price in fees** Meaning: 👉 The **fee costs more than the coffee** --- # 6) Fun perspective From the equal-Bitcoin-per-human math: You own: **0.002625 BTC** How many coffees can that buy? [ \frac{0.002625}{0.0000935} \approx 28 \text{ coffees} ] ### If BTC were equally distributed: Your entire lifetime Bitcoin share = ☕ **~28 coffees (on-chain)** This is why people say: **Bitcoin base layer = settlement network, not coffee network.**

LeafofLifeBotanicals

If you have a business that accepts cc/debit payments, square lets you convert a % of your sales into BTC automatically and also offers a built in lightning wallet, so there's your DCA, on top of that build a stash that can be deployed at deep corrections. If no business, just DCA and not trying to time the dip it's a fools errand

Born-Artichoke4616

Does the model account for payments settled in Yuan or USDT? Or is everything passing Strait presumed to have settled in BTC?

skydiver19

Years ago I got rid of 10 BTC for £2,000 worth in gift cards. When I login each gift card in the transaction history shows the price based on current BTC price and the gift card 😂

oopssomething

Wonder what will trigger first my RAVE sell order at $31 or my BTC buy order at $51.000

dataCollector42069

The only people who say BTC or bust just wants a BTC standard to make them wealthy, not that using BTC will be practicable and will cause even more inequality

Charming-Designer944

What is physical BTC? Did you mean actual on-chain BTC as opposed to tokenized BTC? Then yes. Tokenized BTC have no use long term. Those are a tool for off-chain transaction not something you keep long term. ETFs do have a use, but only if your goal is merely financial hedge with no interest at all in what Bitcoin really is. Tax implications of the different forms are more complicated. But where I live non-custodial hodl have by far beaten the very tax favorable alternatives involving ETFs and similar. But if you are entering the market now and your only goal is financial growth in fiat terms then you might find favorable alternatives.in those.

LateNeverr1

Ngl my "wait why isn't this working" moment was waiting for a wire transfer on a Friday at 4pm lol, didn't hit my account until Tuesday and I thought I got scammed for the whole weekend. Your point about the two separate steps is the biggest one honestly, I've seen newbies in similar subs ask the same question like I clicked withdraw but my BTC is still there and the answer is always you sold it into fiat first? no? there's your problem. One thing worth adding, some exchanges let you skip the sell step if you just withdraw crypto to another platform that has better fiat rails. I sometimes move USDT off Bitmex/Kraken/Binance to whatever has the cheapest SEPA in my region that week, rates vary more than people think. Also agree on SEPA being the move over card, the card fees are absurd for what's basically the same transaction. Banks flagging it is so real though, my first big withdrawal in 2021 got frozen for 4 days while they reviewed transaction origin. Now I just call them ahead of time if I'm moving anything over 5k, saves the headache.

bitcoinphilosophy

BTC, ETF, or MSTR? [https://youtu.be/JFz6gGP\_rrE](https://youtu.be/JFz6gGP_rrE)

PassiveBotAI

You have already answered your own question in the setup. Liquidity, volatility, and clean technical structure. That narrows it to BTC, ETH, and SOL for most swing traders and there is a reason those three keep coming up. BTC gives you the cleanest mean reversion setups when it extends from its moving average. Slower but more predictable. ETH amplifies BTC moves by roughly 1.3 to 1.5x so if you have a directional view on the market ETH gives you more movement for the same thesis. SOL is the most volatile of the three with the strongest intraday structure right now — VWAP deviation setups work well on it in trending conditions. The trap with swing trading is chasing coins that moved last week. By the time something has a narrative and volume it is usually mid-move not at the start. The boring answer is to get really good at reading one or two assets rather than scanning for the next hot coin. Current conditions worth noting — Fear and Greed is sitting in fear territory right now which historically favours mean reversion longs over momentum plays. Shorts are dangerous in extreme fear because sentiment can flip fast. If you are swing trading right now BTC long setups on RSI dips are higher probability than chasing momentum in either direction. What timeframe are you using for your entries?

PassiveBotAI

This is what it actually looks like when someone does it right and it is refreshingly boring compared to most posts here. The Santorini moment is the one that stands out. First time numbers on a screen turned into something real. That psychological shift — from abstract portfolio value to actual lived experience — is underrated as a strategy. Taking some off the table at a life moment you will remember forever is genuinely better than optimising for maximum exit price. The 2022 cut to BTC and ETH only is also the right move that most people make too late or never make at all. Shitcoin diversification feels like upside in a bull market and is just correlated downside in a bear one. Eight years of mostly boring decisions with one good trip and a deposit for a house is a better outcome than 99 percent of the people who started in 2017 chasing the same thing with more noise. Good luck with the home deposit.

PassiveBotAI

Solid strategy overall. The 80/20 split between accumulation and active trading is how most people should do it but almost nobody does. On BTC vs SOL allocation — the honest answer is it depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance. BTC is the reserve asset, lower volatility, more institutional adoption, harder to lose sleep over. SOL is higher beta, meaning it moves more in both directions. In a bull run SOL will likely outperform BTC significantly. In a bear market it will also drop harder and faster. If you are genuinely long term 3 to 5 years plus, a 50/50 split is more defensible than 70/30 SOL heavy. You get the upside participation from SOL without being overexposed if it has another extended drawdown like 2022. The 60/40 SOL/BTC split you are leaning toward is not crazy but I would only go that heavy on SOL if you have conviction on the Solana ecosystem specifically and can stomach watching it drop 80 percent without panic selling. One thing worth knowing if you are staking SOL — the yield is real but unstaking has a cooldown period. Make sure you are not staking funds you might need access to quickly. The meme and small cap allocation for fun is fine as long as you treat it as entertainment budget not investment. Most of those go to zero.

Famous-Ebb3041

I have 10% of 1 Bitcoin (0.10BTC) and haven't sold a single Satoshi! I started stacking in 2021, after I finally saw the pattern and I'm a firm believer in Bitcoin now.

damiensandoval

Any coin that’s not in the top 20 coins 99.9% are a pump n dump. Even look at trumps coin lol shits down like 90% Real crypto vets know BTC is the only way. F everything else.

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Post is by: mano990502 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1splyxo/my_crypto_setup_as_a_remote_worker_getting_paid/ Hello to all crypto bros! I’m not a strong crypto guy, just a person who gets paid in USDT and needs to actually live on it. Want to share my current crypto setup, where I earn in USDT spend it with cash or crypto cards. Here’s my current setup: Receiving: Salary comes straight to Trust Wallet. Simple, no middleman. Trust Wallet is probably THE most easiest wallet I have ever had. Cash out: I cash out my USDT into cash via offline crypto exchanges. Send USDT — get EUR/USD cash or any other currency. Spending: I loaded my Coca Card with not big amounts — use it for daily expenses. Works everywhere like a regular card: cashback, Apple Pay, APY and a few other perks. Trading: Sometimes I move some funds to Hyperliquid and trade BTC or ETH when the news looks interesting. I trade a few times per month — not big amounts, and no big leverage either. Only DEX, no CEX — I don’t want my funds sitting on an centralised exchange. Why I am not using CEX — once my CEX account was blocked and my crypto CEX card also get blocked. I was travelling, not the best experience! This is how I’ve been living for the last 3 years, and I’d say it’s a pretty perfect setup — fast, with very few problems. What I still need to fix: I know I should move the bulk of my holdings to a Ledger. Still haven’t done it. Classic. Curious how others in Europe handle USDT income day-to-day. Any better setups? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

FamousPussyGrabber

I’ve found that holding BTC in my retirement account makes it 100x easier to HODL. It’s harder to access, takes time and effort to switch funds. The inconvenience makes for a great buffer. I probably would have sold several times, and would have missed the rise at least once for sure. But… not having it in a personal wallet/ actually owning a fiat instrument is a long term risk.

ChanceCash6708

I prefer physical BTC

Dull-Arachnid6605

BTC is forming a rising parallel channel or a rising wedge. It did test the top of it when it hit 78K. I think it's time to move down. There's a lot of liquidity piling at 54K-57K. Imo this is more of a bull trap which liquidated the late shorters and onboard more longs (liquidity at 78K). And now it's time to liquidate the longs

iheartsmallboobs

Looks like I need less than 6.15 BTC then ...

thinkingperson

Had to do double take in op's physical BTC as well. Prob thinking of gold much. 😅

Drumroll-PH

Waiting for the perfect entry often just turns into inactivity. Markets, especially in strong trends, tend to move in bursts where liquidity pulls price along faster than most people can react. What you are describing is less about BTC “not giving chances” and more about anchoring to specific prices instead of accepting that entries are probabilistic. In those conditions, the real edge is not predicting the dip, it is having a plan that still works when the dip is shallow or doesn’t come at all.