BTC

codyznutz

BTC Reddit be like: Ath: buy buy buy don't miss out Now: You bought too much how dare you have expectations 

reliable35

Bitcoin is not going to 5x from here. Short to med term. Long term for sure. Many alts will 5x 10x from here..but it’s like throwing darts blindfolded. All depends if you want to invest.. BTC, or you want to gamble - Alt Coins.

DRAGULA85

They usually do it during a similar BTC price point so it fools you to think it’s breaking news. So fricking annoying Then you got people like Samson Mow that wears the same baseball cap that doesn’t make it easier I gotta unfollow from all this crap

premiumkajukatli

Monero still feels relevant to me, especially for people who care about privacy and self-custody. Buying it directly on big CEXs has definitely become harder over time, so a lot of people now use non-KYC routes instead, either P2P or instant swap tools. Personally, I’ve used swap platforms like GhostSwap to move from BTC into other assets without accounts or KYC. Not Monero-specific like some services, but it shows how the landscape has shifted away from traditional exchanges.

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Post is by: eric-plsharevme and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qupaf2/forecasting_the_btc_downtrend_a_strategybased/ Based on the provided charts and analysis, here is a rewritten version in proper English: \*\*\* \*\*Market Analysis and Trade Strategy\*\* The bullish trend for BTC appears to have concluded around 13 August 2025, with the market shifting to a bearish trend. A significant price decline began on 17 October 2025. \*\*Trade Execution Logic\*\* As shown on the chart, the first signal for a potential short position appeared subsequently. However, I typically avoid entering on the first signal due to the potential for false breakouts. A more reliable opportunity is presented at the lower yellow trend line. A successful test and rejection from this level provides a stronger signal to open a second short position. This level held as resistance for a significant period, adding to its validity. \*\*Risk/Reward and Price Projection\*\* Following this strategy, if a valid trend is in place, the second position typically aims for a risk-reward ratio of 4:1. For this profit target to be achieved from the entry near the lower yellow line, the price of BTC would need to fall significantly, well below the $37,000 USD mark. Therefore, based on this analysis, I predict BTC could reach approximately $37,000 USD within the next 3 to 4 months. \*\*Chart References:\*\* 1. \[https://www.tradingview.com/x/WjdYskT9/\](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WjdYskT9/) 2. \[https://www.tradingview.com/x/wkzsEy4b/\](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wkzsEy4b/) 3. \[https://www.tradingview.com/x/GSHlklTw/\](https://www.tradingview.com/x/GSHlklTw/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

donjoe0

'This time is different' is literally always true, since nothing in the physical world ever repeats exactly. These anti-TTID propagandists are uneducated fools, pure and simple. Oh, and the "cycle low" happening exactly on time is just an unfortunate coincidence this time, it's just keeping a bankrupt religious belief going a bit longer, in reality the 4-year mining cycle is no longer driving the BTC price because the miners are no longer mining significant quantities per year.

Spoofik

> llamaswap Do you mean [this](https://swap.defillama.com/?chain=ethereum&from=0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000&tab=swap) aggregator? It's also good and works great, but it contains fewer chains. For example, there is no Tron, and you can't find an exchange for native BTC to native ETH. I use DeFiLama to search within DEX for the ETH network.

donjoe0

That's insane, everyone can see Bitcoin is absolutely not already within any normal currency bounds, no currency on Earth plunges by 30% in 3 months unless there's some massive secular national crisis. Even the USD which was purposely being devalued last year only dropped like 11% over the course of 4 months, while BTC is now down 40% over the latest 4 months. Stop talking complete bullshit.

Happy_Being_1203

If he reached 1M of total supply then that’s the time BTC is dead

Past_Grapefruit7513

I first bought BTC at the end of 2017, during the hype when it was around 19k, just before it crashed to around the 3k-4k range. I never sold that initial buy - still have it sitting in cold storage. But I remember panicking at the time. It’s a rollercoaster no doubt, but hold your nerve ignore the noise, and believe in a better system of exchange. It’s a long game.

Unsuspend-Kapido-

I bought at ath in 2021. I kept buying, my PMC was like 20k and my lowest buy at 14.8k I was negative for month and then suddenly I was making more than my monthly job everyday. 350% in total, i had to sell to help me buying the house. BTC is not for everyone.

robyer

There is QRL (Quantum Resistant Ledger) blockchain which is built on the NIST standardized post-quantum cryptography since their launch in 2018. Externally audited, open source, decentralized and starting to gain popularity this last year. Also there is big upgrade coming this year that will bring smart contracts and proof of stake consensus. I recommend looking into it. They basically solved the problem 8 years ago, so there is no risk for QRL. And it's important to be quantum resistant since the first block, because all the other projects (like BTC, ETH,...) will have huge problems with migration of the current vulnerable coins/tokens/smart contracts/... as that requires manual action from every single user. If Q-day happens before 2030 (some estimations point even to year 2028) then I don't think there is any chance for existing chains to fully upgrade AND migrate their coins to be quantum safe.

Legitimate_Net_9088

I first bought at ATH of $85k then it dropped to $75 then I continued to buy over $100k and loved when it went to $125k but then I am now back in the red. I always think it’s good to go back and read the bibles of Bitcoin whether it be Bitcoin Standard or Broken Money and now the Big Print. Helps understand why we even bought it in the first place. I also have a BTC OG friend who first bought at $50 (bought and sold a few times since then) who keeps me sane by not even flinching and keeps saying just stay the course - it will go back up eventually and I have been through one down cycle. Zoom out zoom out. Go touch grass.

Mohowl_

Yeah me too buddy. I bought all in at 110k. 0.96btc. Before I bought, I didn't decide what kind of trader I was regarding BTC. And I wasn't prepared for a 2 or 3 year hold for a return on our entire savings. I'm down around 43K€ as I had some in it already before buying more. My only advice is if you don't need the money you put into BTC within a 2.5-3.5 year window, then don't worry about it. Don't sell at such a big loss because it takes away the possibility of a return and it doesn't make sense to just change one asset for another 'hoping' to recover a loss. The loss hurts, but it's not a loss until you sell. Me and the missus are in disagreement about selling it now as we are trying to buy land and now have to use/sell other savings and assets to achieve that, and we need to do it this year as land rules are changing in our country. But I'm much happier knowing I can dump everything else to raise cash and keep BTC there. But honestly, it go to zero, it may go to ath. Looking back it's a good bet, but you never no. Work out of you can love without that money for a few years. If the answer is yes, sleep easier. Of it's no, cit your losses.

aaj094

% addresses in profit based on onchain data for BTC says 74.68%.

Gius3p

But sorry, given where we are, I think 99% of BTC or ETH holders are now at a loss... BUT CAN YOU EXPLAIN TO ME HOW THE FUCK WE KEEP GOING DOWN!?

downtherabbit

That picture of the email talking about "Satoshi Pseudonym" is a fake. Probly made by somebody who hates BTC (there are a lot of those types).

aaj094

Half a billion of etf inflows into BTC yesterday. I doubt anyone has much of a clue what the next move of the market is gonna be.

Comprehensive_Menu43

\> you sell everything \> we let BTC crash \> I accumulate what you sold \> we see eachother in 10 years

lrbd60311

my take after years in the space: the big crypto case was always: "when dedollariziation happens BTC & gold is the only thing that's left to buy now that dedollarization actually started to happen & guess what large players like asian central banks bought: gold. only gold Eth, Sol alts etc etc all just high beta BTC plays. need people to miss a a BTC run for them to get bought & perform. \+ the whole etf, futs & lev trading made the market & price discovery more efficient so prices get corrected which didn't get corrected in earlier cycles.

ETP_Queen

If you believe in BTC long term, a small fixed % + DCA beats trying to nail the bottom. If not, this drop is just noise with a logo.

epic_trader

>As terrible as these events are does it really have anything to do with BTC? Yes. Adam Back is literally the head of Blockstream, and even if everyone loves to downplay his role in Bitcoin because he isn't very well-liked, he is a very plausible contributor to the Bitcoin whitepaper. Adam and Austin Hill went to Little St. James island to meet Epstein. Epstein was an investor in the first round of seed investment into blockstream, and they upped his share together with Joi Ito from $50k to $500k, even if they'd already sold out and it meant reducing other people's shares. Austin Hill who co-founded Blockstream were having frequent exchanges with Jeffrey for years from 2014. Supposedly Jeffrey taught him a lot and he respected Jeffrey very much. They met on several occasions, including on the island, in Canada and in Jeffrey's mansion in NY. There's a mail where Austin recommends Jeffrey some crypto hedge funds that engages in wash trading and other games. They knew who he was and what he did and they didn't care. Also, these guys were instructing Epstein not to invest in Ethereum or Stellar because they didn't want him to "play on 2 horses".

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Post is by: Sos418_tw and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qumzhg/btc_this_week_feels_like_a_classic_riskoff/ Not gonna lie, BTC the last few days has felt less like “some new crypto narrative” and more like the same old macro playbook: risk appetite fades, leverage gets overextended, and then the market does what it always does — it cleans house. What stood out to me wasn’t just the red candles, but how quickly things turned into a forced unwind. A big chunk of the move looked like liquidations cascading (the kind where price action starts driving the flow, not the other way around). And once that starts, it doesn’t really matter if your thesis is “bullish long-term” — short-term it’s just positioning getting reset. The other thing I’m trying to make sense of is ETF flow behavior around the dump. We’ve had a stretch where flows were clearly not helping, then suddenly you get a “big inflow day” right as people are panicking. Is that actual dip-buying by bigger hands, or just flow noise that doesn’t mean much unless it continues for a few sessions? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

jaabbb

You also lose if you post your BTC online and got wrench / phishing

Successful_Ad_380

Whatever you do. Do NOT sell your BTC.. that'll just make it worse in the future and before you know it you end up on the Buttcoin sub.

Successful_Ad_380

You sound a bit over leveraged. Try to avoid that in the future. Keep cash you need and buy BTC to your own level of comfort.. if you wake up at night you are not comfortable. And yes I'm aware it's a pretty great buying opportunity, but maybe stop buying for a while and save some money to "up" your comfort again.

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Post is by: Sea-Suspect8466 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qumsow/anyone_else_feeling_how_rough_this_market_has/ Not gonna lie, the last few weeks have been brutal. Everything feels heavy — BTC sliding, alts bleeding harder, and even when there’s a small bounce it gets sold off almost immediately. Feels like every rally turns into an exit for someone underwater. What’s interesting is it’s not just crypto. Stocks have been choppy, yields are up, and the whole “risk on” mood from last year seems to have cooled off fast. A few things I’ve noticed: • Fear is back in the market (liquidations everywhere) • Volume spikes mostly on red candles • People talking more about protecting capital than chasing gains At the same time, some on-chain metrics look like slow accumulation again — so it’s confusing whether this is just another shakeout or something deeper. Curious how others are playing this: Are you: – Sitting in stables/cash? – DCA’ing slowly? – Trading the volatility? – Or just stepping away for a bit? Would love to hear how you’re approaching this phase. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

ginitoboca

You have two BTC, how can you not be happy?

arrebolo78

Esta es una carrera de fondo. lo ideal es una estrategia DCA sin embargo hay gente que opta por otras opciones. creo que BTC a diferencia de otras monedas es un valor seguro a largo plazo, solo mira las estadisticas y únelo al ecosistema creado a su alrededor. Debes estar tranquilo y esperar a que el tiempo pase, volveras a tener tu capital y seguramente con benificios.

Lavayo

Did not see that yet. But countless YT Livestreams often while there are legit conventions like Las Vegas Conference. Videos of real presentations of musk/saylor or other well known persons. Voice and even elements of the video edited to tell a message: scan this QR code, send BTC, you will get it back and we double it. It's really dumb if you stop and think about it, but sadly it's well made. Also the website you get to when you scan the code. I'm reporting those when I see them but when there is a big event there are just too many. When trump spoke in LV I had trouble finding a legit stream between all the scam.

RecklessStallion9999

Try Strike for BTC only. There also Relai, but I’ve never used them. As for real exchanges, Coinbase, Kraken and Bitvavo are good options.

sha256btc21ml

supply is drying out faster than expected , price is just a deception in bitcoin world , so keep stacking sats as much as you can , BTC next target is 1million . HODL strong

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Post is by: tornavec and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1qul4xw/will_perpetual_futures_be_the_death_of_the_crypto/ Crypto markets were initially defined by a high share of spot trading, setting them apart from traditional markets where derivatives dominated. However, by early 2026 the situation had flipped. According to CryptoQuant analysts, derivatives now make up 75% to 80% of the entire crypto market volume, leaving spot trading a mere quarter of the turnover. The leverage inherent in futures famously contributed to the 2008 stock market crash, and the crypto sphere is now repeating that path, but with far greater risks. **The Domination of Perpetual Contracts** A particular problem emerged with the rise of perpetual swaps. Unlike traditional contracts, they have no expiry date. According to Cryptomus analysts, the structure of the derivatives market today looks severely skewed: Perpetual futures account for \~78% of total derivatives trading volume. Traditional (fixed-term) futures hold only the remaining share, mostly in the institutional sector (CME). The perpetual model allows speculators to hold positions indefinitely, thanks to the funding rate mechanism. Perpetuals have become a tool even for former holders who abandoned spot for synthetic positions, creating an illusion of liquidity. **Deadly Grids and Liquidation Cascades** Holders are a vital element of the ecosystem. Previously, they used the DCA (dollar-cost averaging) strategy, but the shift to perpetuals turned this into dangerous Grid trading or even Martingale systems. Why are grids dangerous? They generate profit during flat periods or trends, but sharp corrections lead to accumulating positions against the market, resulting in margin calls. The year 2025 clearly showed the scale of the disaster: **•** October 2025 ("The 1011 Crash"): On October 10–11, geopolitical shocks triggered the largest cascade of liquidations in history. Approximately $19.89 billion worth of positions were forcibly closed over 48 hours. At the peak on October 10, $3.21 billion evaporated in a single minute. **•** November 2025: The market hadn't recovered, and subsequent liquidation waves wiped out another roughly $5–7 billion in open interest. **The Current Situation: Early 2026** Bitcoin is currently falling for the 4th month in a row, threatening to surpass the negative records of 2018. January 2026 only confirmed the system's fragility: **•** January 31, 2026: $2.56 billion in positions were liquidated in a single day, with over $2.4 billion of that being long positions. **•** Early February 2026: The BTC price dropped to the $74,500 – $78,000 range, which is 40% below the October 2025 highs of $126,100. The situation is worsened by the near-total disappearance of traditional futures. When the market is dominated by perpetuals with massive leverage, any 5% dip can turn into a multi-day 15% crash due to automatic liquidations that no one is there to buy, as there is less and less "real" spot capital in the system. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

desertstorm4

MSTR has strong cash reserves to pay their obligations for 2 years. He will not need to sell BTC. MSTR has massive potential in the near term. The Yen carry trade is unwinding as we speak. Bitcoin is a 24hr market. The Yen carry traders need to pay their debts now and they’re selling their bitcoin. MSTR is like bitcoin with leverage, but without the decay of bitcoin leveraged ETFs. Bitcoin price will begin to rise sometime within the next five days when the carry trade fully unwinds. Those betting against MSTR will be forced to buy MSTR stock as bitcoin price begins to rise. I will be making dollar cost averaging buys of MSTR starting 2/3/26. Don’t be left in the rocket fueled cloud of dust.

ARoundForEveryone

I don't know what I want to order, but how many BTC do I need in order to be sent a menu? /s

atomicdomb

I think that's kind of my point. The only real difference is dollars are constantly debased, and the debaser is siphoning value away from everyone holding dollars, to such an extent that some investments which don't create value (go up in dollars but not up in value, eg the only reason they are going up is because the dollar is dropping but if it was done in BTC the totals would be lower). In other words fiat debasement causes us to miss value investments. Remember investments worked before fiat for thousands of years using precious metals. Honestly if fiat wasn't constantly debased it wouldn't be an issue.

Amazing_Client_6950

How's BTC doing now?

BraskSpain

You loan your BTC without selling to buy more.

cdnkevin

As terrible as these events are does it really have anything to do with BTC? Powerful people used their power over others to satisfy their own needs. This has been happening before BTC was invented. Dirty money (regardless of form) is dirty from the crime, not form or currency used.

bigbrainnowisdom

Satoshi launched btc 2008. Gavin andersen and OG core devs joined 2008-2009. By 2010 he no longer reply much, by april 2011 he sent his last message saying he moved on to other things Epstein earliest document was 2011-12? And very active in 2016. By this time Gavin and other OG core devs already "kicked out" due their disagreement on lighting networks etc. We even had a BTC Cash.

MartyrForMyLove

I'm coast FIRE and own BTC. The problem with BTC is its volatility also makes my entire net worth volatile. For that reason it's difficult to truly be mostly BTC and FIRE because the assumptions don't calculate well. For consistency sake I still go heavy on ETFs and BTC makes up about 1/3 of my investment portfolio.

Romanizer

How so without counterparty risk and statistically shorter timeframes of drawdown and break even? For any longer timeframe, BTC has a better risk profile than S&P500 or any alternatives.

Reasonable_Leg_4664

If someone is about to FIRE, the conventional fiat system has served them well. I think the problem with a lot of BTC people is that they’re looking to get rich quick and they can get wrecked. I’d argue that most people are better off with the slow and steady conventional retirement system. Owning hard assets is the way to win, stocks, real estate, bitcoin. Bitcoin is awesome for that but the volatility is too much for most to handle and the people with the amount of invested capital to withstand the volatility can do so because they’ve already been more successful than most and aren’t leveraging or investing money they need soon. I saw something today that said the middle class shouldn’t be buying bitcoin and it made me think. It’s kind of a paradox, that middle class buying bitcoin could be a way to supercharge and catch up, but it’s also much more of a gamble than someone in upper MC or top 10% of American wealth. If you have the testicular fortitude, it’s a great investment. But I see it as a slice of the pie, not the whole thing.

MuggD

My wealth is due to getting into Bitcoin early. I then expanded into other things because of it. My first BTC buy was 3 BTC for $1K total.

607beforecommonera

Bitcoin Talk Forum. It's the main early-days BTC forum. [https://bitcointalk.org](https://bitcointalk.org) Here is the profile for the user for reference: [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1931](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1931) It's reprehensible what they were up to.

Similar-Vegetable834

Clara Mae William uses a platform called Tradeven & EFX to scam you out of your BTC. BEWARE

Open_Situation686

BTC has a much higher likelihood of going to 0 than the SP500

xmrcache

When this email was initially written around $15-16 per coin. $750 total at $15 per BTC in Jul 2011

Real-Technician831

30K€ is 66K in BTC Which is the point, one shouldn’t compare to USD when speaking about more distant future, as one doesn’t know whether it’s about the asset rising in value or USD collapsing further.

hduynam99

First, I gather BTC daily closing prices (UTC) going back to 2010. Then, I run it through my model, which layers several signals together: * Momentum (RSI – Relative Strength Index): Gauges if the market is running hot or cooling off. * Volatility (RVI – Relative Volatility Index): Measures whether recent swings are driven more by buyers or sellers. * Baseline (Moving Average, e.g., 200 days): Tracks the “fair value” price to see if BTC is stretched above or below its trend. * Recency weighting: Gives more importance to recent data so the score adapts to current conditions. * Trend smoothing: Filters out noise from short-term spikes, keeping the score stable and reliable. The calculation in concept: Risk Score \~ (log(Price) − log(Moving Average)) x (RSI Adjustment) x (RVI Adjustment) x (Recency Weight) x (Trend Smoothing) -> scaled to 0–100.

wisequote

Don’t connect Satoshi to this filth; the whole reason the community forked away from BTC is because we saw how these freaks had NOTHING to do with what Satoshi was or what he created. Thank god Bitcoin was saved in a standalone instance away from BTC.

RonPaulWasR1ght

You're not taking too much of a hiatus from "thinking about BTC" if you're posting about it on Reddit. You may as well have a post that starts "I'm going to take a hiatus from posting on Reddit, guys". I mean, why not just go ahead with your hiatus already, why take the time beforehand to think about BTC so much you post about it on Reddit? Not believable. This is fake.

Kakkarot1707

If it drops to $40k then we’ll have seen the largest drop in BTC in the history of it…besides COVID obviously which crashes every market

Unbalanced_Acctnt

Months is a start. History is no guarantee of the future, but it is the reference we have. The safest hold time for BTC seems to be 4+ years given previous “cycles”. Whether they will continue to occur, nobody knows for sure.

Scary_Caterpillar226

And it loses its “flex” level when one talks about how much BTC they own and their statement includes “af.”

HelpRespawnedAsDee

In case you lose your job. In case the interest rate cannot beat BTC gains. If you are lucky then you pay it off gains alone, but this is essentially like using your CC to start a business: a risky move that only works for 1/1M people who try it.

Rydog_78

First rule about Bitcoin is don’t talk about how much BTC you own.

BacchusAndHamsa

No problem, you'll soon get a 2nd chance as BTC is becoming dirt cheap again

369__NTesla

I like it . You did t loose anything you still have BTC. Fuck the fiat price .

NewestNumber2

So YOU’RE the one who ruined the trend. Anxiously awaiting BTC’s full slide, then someone goes and buys near the top. Everyone else sell now!

Alarming_Vanilla_439

At what point does Satoshi just rug pull BTC and the economy crashes and this entire generation begins to think that investing is a scam and there is no true way to wealth anymore so they resort to living a miserable life at a job they hate and live a life with no growth or trajectory towards improvement so they become addicted to social media to satisfy their short term dopamine rush as they inhale cotton candy blueberry crush vapes and eat over processed artificial flavored food with enough seed oils to lubricate the car they will never own because now they can’t afford one or need one because robots deliver their food to their 500sqft studio box apartment above the local clanker service store where they work on clankers that deliver goods to useless humans that are to broke, fat and lazy to leave their homes to get goods they need to survive even though they don’t have to worry about a family because woman now hate men and men are too feminine to take interest in woman but both genders never leave the house to socialize with one another because they’re to addicted to the devices that provide useless doom scrolling information that is now developed by ai and we forget what we saw after we continue to scroll and waste our lives away to eventually become extinct and open a gateway for our civilization to turn to ai robots fighting amongst themselves to take over the world using intelligent we provided them as we starting with identifying pictures of dogs from cats to now enough power to wipe out entire nations electric grids as we were so stupid to worry about electric cars and how much power we needed to charge all of them while still not accelerating global warming where we eventually melt Antarctica but it doesn’t matter by then because everyone is locked up in their homes brainwashed by ai content being created to cater to their interests making them progressively dumber and lazier until robots blow up the world. Or BTC hits 250k

azauca

You need to use a cold wallet to safely manage your bitcoin. Get a coldcard. Here is the vidrio on how to set it up from BTC Sessions.  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FAYmE5-40PQ

DBRiMatt

I've been doing this sort of thing for a while, I call it "Dynamic DCA". I have my upper threshold, which for this next cycle/halving is 80k, When I get paid, and the prices are above 80k, I'll just throw money into Stablecoin. And similar concept, if it's 78k, I might by $100 worth, but if it's 75k I'll buy $200 worth. End of the day, I expect BTC to get over 120k again at some point, but I'll like to capitalize on the percentage gain.

brkinard

So ETH is done this cycle....topped at $5K.....two months ahead of BTC....right at its 2021 highs. That's what you guys think? ETH ain't done yet, not by a fcking long shot. On your left

Bongressman

Because this has never mattered. Not once since Bitcoin's inception. Almost 20 years ago. Bitcoin always drops 50% from the high, in the first quarter of a midterm year. And look, its already down 40% and headed lower, right on schedule. Midterm elections years are always bear years, with the lows coming in around the end of summer or sometime in the 4th quarter. The high hits in the post halving year, the midterm year is a bear year. And look , the high hit in the post halving year, 4th quarter, like clockwork. Now BTC is approaching the 200 WMA, which is low 60s, like clockwork... again. Midterm election years don't matter to BTC. If gold and silver can lost 15 trillion in MC in less than a week, no kne gives a shit about Bitcoin at the institutional level. Not until next year. Buckle up.

esiob12

I think the number of people who will DCA 80% of their paycheck into BTC in 2026 is going to 10x 2021.

Wild-Cup7515

Buying under 100k isn't risk free though. MSTR company acts like a convertible bond to give investors exposure to btc volatility. Saylor and mstr collectively own less than 2.5% of BTC supply. It's big yes but it wouldn't be radical to think of a situation where BTC hits 40k. Not to mention Trust in crypto lowering after Trump came into presidency and I don't say that because the price is down or it has volatile swings.

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OkSeries5363

I see the issue. ​You are still describing a hedge fund, a speculator but we are talking about market makers, the plumbing. Those are two completely different business models with different rules. BlackRock is the Sponsor. They created the ETF. They are legally forbidden from being the AP for their own fund because that would be a massive conflict of interest. When you sell your ETF shares you arent selling them back to BlackRock. You are selling them on an exchange. The AP takes that share to blackrock and says I dont want this. Give me the underlying Bitcoin. BlackRock cancels the share and hands the AP the Bitcoin. Now the AP has Bitcoin but they need their cash back to keep their business running. So they sell that Bitcoin on the open market immediately. If this happened slowly the ETF would fail to track the underlying.  ​'Holding for a few hours to avoid losses' That is objectively false. Read the risk factors in the official IBIT Prospectus. Blackrock explicitly warns that the ETFs value relies on APs being able to liquidate Bitcoin quickly to maintain the link between the share price and the BTC price. If an AP waits a few hours to see if they can make a gain they are violating their mandate to keep the ETF price tracked to the underlying. They are failing at their one job. Providing liquidity. Its also a misunderstanding of institutional risk. APs like JPMorgan or Jane Street operate under strict VaR limits. If an AP receives $100 million dollars in BTC and waits a few hours to see if the price goes up they are taking an unhedged directional bet with the banks own capital. Risk departments dont allow wait and see they require delta neutrality. They sell or hedge instantly because their profit comes from the arbitrage spread not the price move. In high finance learning to fly with the firms liquidity is a firing offense.    ​'They choose the price' Bitcoin is a global commodity. If an AP tries to sell $100M of BTC above the market price at their own prerogative, nobody will buy it. They sell into the global spot market at the prevailing bid because they need to settle the cash side of the trade immediately. They dont choose the price any more than you choose the price of a stock when you hit the market sell button. ​The cash loop issue This is the part you arent understanding. If the AP doesnt sell the Bitcoin where do they get the cash to pay the next thousand retail investors who want to sell? Thats their whole job. When retail sells the ETF the AP uses their own cash to buy those shares. They then hand those shares to Blackrock to get the Bitcoin. At this point the AP is out of cash and long Bitcoin. To stay in business they must sell that Bitcoin to get their cash back so they can facilitate the next trade. If they dont sell the Bitcoin they are just sitting there with a drained bank account and a pile of crypto. They are a bank not a holder.  Your missing the clearest evidence we have! How in sync the APs keep the price. The fact that iBIT maintains such a tight tracking error to its NAV is proof that the arbitrage mechanism is working exactly as intended. APs arent holding for a better exit they are executing high speed delta neutral arbitrage. Their objective is to capture the spread while minimizing exposure to the underlying assets volatility. If they waited for a better price as you suggest the ETF share price would decouple from the Bitcoin price creating a massive discount or premium. The near perfect tracking we see is the result of APs clearing their inventory immediately to recoup liquidity and eliminate price risk. ​You are arguing about what a speculator could do if they wanted to gamble, Im simply explaining what a liquidity provider must do to remain an AP. If they dont sell the underlying they arent an AP anymore they are just a very unhedged hedge fund.

PirateSKB

lol that's true, and its not just BTC and Eth either, ALOT of cryptos killed it and made people quite rich over time ironically

ATRenko

The first time I ever saw a BTC price it was at 70k. Anything below that is a dream and 10k would really make up for living under a rock.

Numerous_Ruin_4947

ETH was 50 cents in 2015, and just about $5k a fee months ago. BTC was 6 cents in 2010, and went up to $126k. Way more crazy than gold. The dollar is a shitcoin.

MacaroonOk9376

swapping all my shitcoins for dat sweet BTC rn king (or queen)

PlentyMath7

1. Very low interest- crypto used to be the shiny object to chase that returned 5-10x at least, but market has moved onto stocks, AI and metals. Why chase losses in crypto when everything else is in the green? 2. Poor regulatory clarity- allegedly there is lots of interest in crypto from institutions but they are hesitant to invest in it without the passing of the Clarity Act. 3. Use case- there still isn't a very clear use case for crypto, outside of sending money. Sending money is important but a token is never gonna go up if people just send it and immediately sell. BTC continues to plummet amidst every market environment, tariffs on/off, wars starting/ending, gov't shutdown or running, etc. BTC was marketed as a hedge against inflation and gov't problems, but it has failed recently at both. If it cannot sustain itself in those times, why are people buying it? Making matters worse is the fact that there are more attractive trades out there- gold and silver have skyrocketed, AI trades, even just holding the SP500 is doing great. 4. Too many projects- too many memecoins and other random projects that are for shills and grifters. Liquidity is spread super super thin as people chase massive returns quickly. 5. Massive whale selling is contributing to falling price action as well. Tons of OG investors are liquidating, and why wouldn't they? A lot of them bought below $1k, and even at today's price, it's still a 70x.

joeyy_4d

Some countries adopted btc as a national currency, like El Salvador. Countries that don’t have a stable currency like the US Dollar, have high use case for BTC as their main currency for store of value. Like gold in digital form

Gold-Penalty5863

He was likely referring to BTC's immediate pre-halving price of approx $65K and its peak post halving price of $125K. Looks a little shy of 100% gain based on eyeballing those 2 numbers.

Few-Being3764

The answer is both. I've got a little gold and a little silver, but over the next years as they presumably cool off after this huge run I'll buy the hell out of the dip. I've spent plenty of time buying BTC dip, and I still have a DCA going for the foreseeable future, but once BTC takes off and metals are cheaper, I'll adjust my strategy accordingly. The best buy generally isn't the thing everyone is talking about right now. Buy when its boring (so long as the fundamentals are there and you have a ling enough time horizon)

cherrypoplar

He's obviously trying (and failing) to stop BTC from falling, and probably using up his so-called cash reserve in the process. Hasn't helped MSTR prices though.

No_South_9912

I sold some BTC to buy silver. IMHO Silver has better potential after the 30% selloff, and will never go to zero. It has industrial value if nothing else.

The_Bitcoin_Act

Try BTCPay Server, NOWPayments, SBP or Blink! SBP is my favorite! All these use APIs for live BTC pricing in invoices. Set a 10-15 min expiration window to lock rates. Aim for Lightning wherever possible. Expect 2-5% refund rate, at your volume, that’s manageable without profit erosion.

No-Masterpiece2246

>Its very true an AP isnt obligated to sell BTC just like Im not obligated to open my parachute after jumping out of a plane. Which is a terrible analogy, because by simply holding the Bitcoin for as little as a few hours they can avoid losses or even make a large gain. Unless you think you can learn to fly in the time you jumped out of the plane, that is. >Hold it become and long speculator and get fired by their risk officer for gambling with the firms liquidity. Which is not something that EVER happens to top 10 Wall Street hedge funds... The AP's job is explicitly to provide liquidity ON BOTH SIDES of the trade. So by their precise definition they MUST have both large amounts of cash (which of course they do), but also large amounts of Bitcoin. Finally, even if they do sell the Bitcoin, WHO they sell the Bitcoin to is their perogative, as is the price at which they're, which may or may not be the market price.

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YoSoySax

I see! And transferring BTC to a physical wallet is difficult, and regarding what you mentioned about it being open source, I need to know how to program (sorry for my ignorance).It would be an honor to learn from you! :D

Affectionate-Big-472

Yes. Every asset class you mentioned above has both supply and demand dynamics in play. BTC has limited supply and the only thing that is affecting its price is demand. The price of every asset class needs the imbalance between both supply and demand for its price to move. Since supply is finite, BTC only requires shift in demand for it to move, meaning you only need one side of the equation. There is no asset class in entire human history that can do that.

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Stultus_Asinus

So you think BTC will go to 0 then!? I should start to panic sell!!!

Affectionate-Big-472

Look at the past and see the volatility. This is exactly what people ask when btc drop from 19k to 3k. BTC is like the world economy on a small scale. It’s going to have depression and recession now and then but look at where the world is right now and imagine the future. Only those who see the future reap the benefits while suckers jump in and make pennies on the rise and lose the entire retirement on the way down and ask the same question why. Cycle repeats

Life-Republic2311

Who’s why I own more BTC than you

Opposite_Cold8616

You skipped investing 101 where your asset generally needs to generate income to cover the debt of it's purchase. Money spent on BTC is always going to be a gamble, and you should never gamble with money you don't have.

longonbtc

Do not listen to anybody that sends you a private message. They are all scammers that are just trying to scam you. Trust Wallet and SafePal are not good bitcoin wallets. They are both geared towards altcoins and SafePal is not open source. Binance is essentially a shitcoin casino. Some good hardware bitcoin wallet options are the [Coldcard Q](https://coldcard.com/q), [BitBox02 Bitcoin-only edition](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/), [Blockstream Jade Plus](https://store.blockstream.com/products/jade-plus?variant=49701334188320), [Trezor Safe 5 Bitcoin-only](https://trezor.io/trezor-safe-5-bitcoin-only), [Trezor Safe 7 Bitcoin-only](https://trezor.io/trezor-safe-7-bitcoin-only), and [Foundation Passport Core](https://foundation.xyz/passport-core/). These six hardware wallets are all good hardware wallets that have publicly available source code that can be reviewed. There are also older & cheaper versions of three of these hardware wallets but they are still open source and reliable. They are just less user friendly than the newer & costlier versions. Those older & cheaper versions are the [Coldcard Mk4](https://coldcard.com/mk4), [Trezor Safe 3](https://trezor.io/trezor-safe-3), and [Blockstream Jade Classic](https://store.blockstream.com/products/blockstream-jade-hardware-wallet). Which exchange is best for you depends on what country you are a resident of. I recommend buying bitcoin from [Strike](https://strike.me/), [River](https://river.com/), or [Swan Bitcoin](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/) or [Cash App](https://cash.app/bitcoin) if these platforms are available in your country of residence. [River](https://river.com/) and [Strike](https://strike.me/) are the best platforms if you want to set up an automatic hourly, daily, weekly, or monthly recurring purchase schedule (automatic dollar cost averaging schedule). If you set up an automatic hourly, daily, weekly, or monthly recurring purchase schedule on River, then River stops charging you fees after the first week. https://river.com/zero-fee If you set up an automatic hourly or daily recurring purchase schedule on Strike, then Strike stops charging you fees after the first week. And if you set up an automatic weekly or monthly recurring purchase schedule on Strike, then Strike stops charging you fees after the first automatic purchase. https://strike.me/faq/how-do-i-set-up-a-recurring-purchase/ Exchanges get to choose how much they want to charge their customers for withdrawing bitcoin from their platform. This fee is referred to as a bitcoin withdrawal fee. Some exchanges choose not to charge a bitcoin withdrawal fee at all (meaning it's free to withdraw bitcoin). [Swan Bitcoin](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/) chooses not to charge a bitcoin withdrawal fee. [Strike](https://strike.me/) chooses not to charge a bitcoin withdrawal fee if you choose the slowest option. [Cash App](https://cash.app/bitcoin) chooses not to charge a bitcoin withdrawal fee if you withdraw 0.001 BTC or more and you choose the standard speed option. [River](https://river.com/) chooses to give their customers one free bitcoin withdrawal per month.

Miss_Curie

Banks aren’t “loading up” because they suddenly turned into Bitcoin maxis — they’re offering ETFs because clients want exposure and ETFs are an easy way to collect fees. $1–2B sounds big until you zoom out and realize that’s tiny relative to these banks’ balance sheets. It’s more demand-side plumbing than conviction buying. Doesn’t mean BTC is dead, but it also doesn’t mean retail should blindly follow “the banks.” If you want exposure, fine — just treat it as a volatile risk asset, not some secret signal that insiders know something you don’t. Buying is reasonable. Going all-in because of a headline… not so much :-)

Chemfreak

I have two plays that I am long on for basically the foreseeable future, BTC and 1 other stock I don't really want to disclose. I have been trimming my position in one or the other when the other position is "overvalued" relative to the normal spread between the two. Thing is, it feels so much better holding the stock because I sell CCs on it. Like right now the spread is great and I should be dumping more into BTC but the "passive" gains of the CC are so attractive. So this literally changes a lot, I can start selling CCs on both ends, and if I ride too close to the sun and the calls end in the money, well it likely will be a good opportunity to go into the other anyway because if I'm forced to give up my shares that means the spread had to have increased in my favor. Unless of course both rocket up... And yea, I do hold leaps too so I may have to do that with IBIT, which would reduce some of the "risk" of both positions going on a crazy run.

Miss_Curie

It’s definitely possible, but I don’t think it’s as clean or certain as the charts make it look. The diminishing returns part makes sens , as BTC gets bigger, each cycle naturally produces smaller multiples. That trend is real. Where it gets tricky is assuming that means the top *has* to be in just because past cycles lined up neatly. Also, the mood here doesn’t really feel like a classic cycle top. Those usually come with a lot of confidence and excitement. This feels more like people being tired, frustrated, or checked out, which often shows up after an early drawdown rather than at the final peak. Could this turn into a lower high and a longer bear? Absolutely possible. Could it also just be a rough mid-cycle shakeout in a tougher macro environment? also possible. Cycles do tend to rhyme, but they don’t follow a perfect schedule. Most of what we’re all doing here is trying to make sense of limited data in real time — and that rarely looks as clean as it does in hindsight.

Z08Z28

If we bottom at mid-60K that would fill the gap on the weekly chart and land us on the support from 2024 from when just before Trump got elected and BTC later said See Ya!

azauca

Buy Bitcoin only and self custody with cold wallet (I.e, coldcard).  Yon can search in YouTube BTC sessions coldcard, in there you’ll learn how to set it up.

Chemfreak

Sounds like i need to do more research on MSTR. I have avoided it like the plague because I would rather own the real deal at a non inflated price per BTC and I have enough long exposure on BTC.

nugymmer

No such thing exists. The market either gives a shit or it doesn't. And for most alts, in fact, dare I say all of them, the market just doesn't care. BTC is the main play, and as far as I'm concerned, the only play. Forget about everything else. Just accumulate BTC and stay the hell away from things that are only going to cause pain. Don't be a victim. You play alts, you become a victim.

nugymmer

Most alts are garbage. You will have to accept the reality of that. It's why I'm never buying any more...even if that means I miss potentially huge gains. I just don't trust them anymore because as soon as the markets look even remotely like they will take a loss, alts seem to fall through the bottom. They're just too edgy for me. And now, they're not going up as much when BTC climbs BUT they always seem to fall harder. In other words, they keep losing to BTC. Stay away from alts, they're a trainwreck in slow motion.

nugymmer

BTC won't go to sub 40k unless there's a catastrophe of some sort. And you bet I'd be buying it if it ever went that low. No more alts for me.

xXSomethingStupidXx

Owning property has a cash flowing yield where BTC does not, very different situation.