BTC

Electronic_Map1148

I would split the position into a long term portion and a portion you would genuinely be willing to sell. That removes the pressure to find one perfect exit price for everything. Moon can handle shorter term BTC directional views separately but that is very different from deciding what to do with actual bitcoin you intend to hold for years.

Express_Reach980

Price gets all the attention, meanwhile the network just keeps producing blocks through every cycle and headline. That consistency is probably one of the coolest parts of Bitcoin. Moon's BTC market sits on the price speculation side of the equation, while the underlying network just keeps doing its thing regardless of sentiment.

UnhappyVast4933

This is basically the universal Bitcoin experience. Nothing happens forever, patience finally breaks, then price immediately starts moving. Trying to perfectly time every short term swing is a fast way to make yourself miserable. Moon makes the directional bet explicit, while actually holding BTC is a completely different long term decision.

Working_Pick_5723

Price refusing to break while a seemingly bearish flow is hitting the market is often more interesting than the flow number itself. If sellers keep showing up and price absorbs it, somebody else is taking the other side. Reclaiming and holding 80K would make that resilience more meaningful. Moon's BTC market gives a continuous directional read but I would still watch spot structure and actual ETF flows before treating sentiment as confirmation.

Right_Strength2170

LINK is weird, frontran even BTC on the August pump, now every upwards attempt gets sold off.

Unlisted_User69420

I respect your decision as well. I understand risk appetite, had to absorb the gut punch as I actually went red by 2% earlier this year, after the ATH back in October 2025. I just started investing, later than I should have, so taking a risk on BTC, balancing with stock and 401k to pad my retirement. All the best, and may we all prosper

Equal_Wheel109

Ik heb gehoord dat je met 10 BTC een pizza kunt kopen. Doe maar in plaats van fiat, want dan heb je tenminste gegeten

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polymath_uk_

I may be being a bit slow. You have the hash in that link. Presumably we put the password candidates through a hashing algorithm and aim to match the published hash or produce a different valid hash. What algorithm is used for this hashing and how do we validate the output?  I used to know a fair bit about encryption (wrote a double ratchet messaging app) but it's been a while and I've never looked at how BTC does it. How embarrassing. 

Pyroll2206

Yes bro i was just talking about the technicality that there just no BTC in no wallet on the all world ( in the sense of having fiat money in your physical wallet ). Your balance on you cold wallet is also a raw in the giant data base that is the blockchain.

kennychesney_lied

trying to double your BTC by timing the market is going to end in failure and you will regret it unfortunately. you don't want to be that guy that says "i had so much btc at one point it i still had it today i'd be rich"

whiteknives

If someone does crack it I hope they’re honest, because you just handed the entire world a treasure map to 16BTC.

AncientWanderer00999

you can sell half and buy BTC

Unlisted_User69420

I’m winning, been DCAing since 2021. Sitting on .7509 BTC, up 31%.

Dependent_Ant8054

Cold storage still makes the most sense for the stack I do not plan to touch. I keep the trading side separate because mixing long term BTC with short term moves is how I end up doing dumb stuff after a red candle. Been testing Moon for the market side and keeping custody as its own thing. Makes the setup boring but boring is good when BTC starts throwing 5 percent candles around

Fdgm1tveT

Flaunt your BTC. How many you holding?

sa1ffff

I’m gonna HODL that. But it’s kinda cheap now. Wondering if i should move from Gold to BTC. I also am stuck with my silver investment. Cannot sell it at a loss. Gold is where im in a significant profit and can cash it towards BTC

booyahbroski

1.0 BTC or more. Sorry, but 0.05 ain’t gonna cut it if you want to be wealthy. I’m assuming $1,000,000+ BTC at that time.

BetterFunny6883

Never ever sell your BTC, it'll be a $21 million per coin by 2046 Watch this before you die https://youtu.be/hqoagNBtIps?si=Ir5eRU3XnHJLbMjf

ribz18

I’m saying somewhere in the area of 500-800k Because after 2 halvings… let’s say each halving causes the price to double from the last ATH… and at that point a block will be 0.78125 BTC if a blocks purchasing power stays roughly the same (roughly 300k today) when a block is 0.78125 the cost for one bitcoin should be something more then 300k of buying power So my base case (on the low end) is around 500-800k USD

CrustyBus77

No, I mean that when BTC goes up I can move out of my parents basement.

hoppeeness

Small alts have been out performing BTC. Usually they are after BTC/ETH/SOL. They still seem connected as a market but not lead by BTC anymore.

tandlmosey

Sure thing. Long one to follow: First, write down all of your debts in the order you are going to pay them off, not the amount you owe. You mentioned cc debt in another post, which is usually by far the worst debt to carry. So unless by some miracle the cc debt is a lower interest rate than your 13% student loan, that's the first one to pay down. And you need to pay more than the minimum monthly payment. The cc companies want you to do that bc you never get out of it. They won't like you paying more, so think of it as giving them the middle finger every time you send more than the minimum. Also, right now today get rid of your credit cards/apple pay all of that. You should just pay cash for what you need until you can get your finances in a better spot. Part of getting in debt is not 'feeling' it when you spend. But with cash, you can old school see it and feel it. Sounds kind of crazy but it really works. Putting things on credit cards is too easy to feel like you didn't pay for it at all, when you're really paying 10 times more for what you bought when you add in the interest on the debt. You mentioned moving in with your folks. That would definitely be a money saver, but know that Ii you do that you Can.Not. slack off. Sometimes people move back home with the intention to save some $ but sometimes parents are caring for you like when you were a little kid in that situation, which leads some people to stay stuck in that mode. You need to focus on getting out of this debt hole you're in asap bc that student loan amount by itself is enough to fuck up your life later on. And also think about work you can engage in to up your income. I don't know your age, so if you're starting out in life your income won't be all that great which is fine. but you need to think of areas that can bump it up--construction, plumbing, that kind of thing pays quite a bit these days and they are hiring. I'm not preaching btw I had lots of cc debt, luckily a small student loan, but I let the credit get wayyy out of hand. Buckling down and paying it off is the smartest financial thing I ever did. Totally freed me up to invest in stocks, BTC etc later and do very well. Good luck!

Pennies2millions

You guys act like BTC wasn't supposed to be a tradeable asset.  It's just like any other asset. Cars, real estate, Indian Rupees, and literally everything else in the world, will change prices with interest rates. Why do you think that it would behave any different?  Being free from Central banks doesn't change how people trade. 

Expensive-Paint-9490

Honestly Ethereum price seems correlated as always to BTC price.

basketbun

There is a company that holds your BTC in a will or trust for your beneficiary, called LEDN. They have an estate plan for it. I don't know much about it, but have seen ads for it.

quintavious_danilo

I knew about that already and it doesn’t stress me at all. I rather have my BTC kyc’d and MiCA-regulated so I don’t run into any restrictions in 10-20 years when non-KYC BTC will be impossible to sell.

powerbone

Institutional ETF absorption distorts historical 200DMA averages, making structural liquidity key for $BTC expansion.

Cryptomuscom

No exit strategy needed when you're measuring in BTC

Coininator

This. And exchange doesn’t buy BTC and sell them, an exchange matches buyers and sellers through the order book… Same if you buy stocks. It’s not NASDAQ holding Apple stocks, it’s the seller selling to the buyer…

quintavious_danilo

Yeah, but I simply ignore the altcoins altogether. I put the BTC/EUR pair into my favorites and that’s the only pair I see when I open the app. I don’t even see the other coins.

Adept-Condition4644

Hhheeyyyyy, agreed. Got 50% BTC, 25% ETH and 25% HBAR going in.  Almost 10 years fucking around trying to buy the unknown (never realized gains) now just buy and hold.  

Oliverdako

AI could actually be good for Bitcoin mining. Miners can use cheap power for BTC mining and switch to AI workloads when that pays more. The big question is whether BTC price and fees can keep mining profitable as the block rewards keep getting smaller.

EthanDavis63

Buying $20k worth of BTC as a multi-millionaire isn't an investment, it's just a PR campaign for the crypto vote.

basketbun

I like to use the Power Law when thinking about this stuff, 2046 Power Law predicts $9.5 million USD for 1 BTC, not really assuming hyperinflation, I would say 1 BTC today would be enough to be life changing in 2046.

Oliverdako

Basically: You give MoonPay $1,000. MoonPay gets the Bitcoin from exchanges or other sellers. They send the BTC to you and make money from fees/spread. The dollars don't turn into Bitcoin on the blockchain. You're simply buying BTC that already exists.

quintavious_danilo

Personally, I like Kraken Pro or Bitpanda both charge around 0.25% in fees for spot trading BTC. I also use OKX occasionally, spot fees are only 0.1%, I just can't shake an uneasy feeling about that exchange though. I only buy small amounts there while I always handle larger purchases via Kraken Pro.

SamFromJupiter

I would suggest keeping your BTC stack in self-custody wallets. so ideally non-kyc But yeah, make sure you have a hardware wallet bcz you are now responsible for storing your btc securely.

Icy_Dragonfruit__

Just be careful with trying to sell at a specific target and buy back lower. Getting the timing wrong twice can leave you with less BTC than you started with.

Savings_Language_183

that counterfactual is fun, but the real lesson is how absurdly path-dependent it is. A kid starting college now has a fixed deadline, while BTC can drop 30% during one bad month. Tuition money needs to be there when the invoice lands

ExpertGur1136

Since you’re too dumb to analyze this things called nrs, at least use ChatGPT: Over roughly the **last 2 months**, Bitcoin has increased by about **30–31%**. **25 July 2026:** \~$64,312 per BTC **24 September 2026 close:** \~$84,379 **Increase:** \~$20,067 per BTC **Percentage gain:** **\~31.2%** So, for example, **€10,000 invested two months ago would be worth roughly €13,120 today**, ignoring EUR/USD movements and fees. The exact 60-day measure (27 Jul → 25 Sep) is about **+29.1%**. Keep trying to sound smart 🐑

Honest-Mess-7431

How is this possible, China banned BTC, right?

faisal_yk26

Watching the 30-year yield more than the BTC chart this week. It hit its highest since 2004 yesterday and BTC slid straight back under 84k. Until yields cool off I think we just chop around here.

outoftownMD

All season will be incredibly diluted and minimal again except for the solid projects. Things like pump, fun diluted liquidity, and all those people who rug pull through those all coins will trade back into Ethereum, BTC, USDC or USDT. I have a lot of SUI

A_Honking_Goose

Because if you look at certain bull market indicators u will see BTC is already above most of them why are you sideliners so slow and weird with this stuff, just means as per usual you people miss out on the initial pump and end up fomoing in later

goyva

i think the biggest question is what happens if BTC suddenly drops 20–30%, not whether borrowing looks smart while it’s going up. That’s what made Arch Lending interesting to me. The BTC is held with Anchorage, they say it isn’t rehypothecated, and liquidations can be partial instead of automatically closing the entire position. If I was borrowing against BTC, I’d probably care more about those details and keeping the LTV conservative than trying to predict where Bitcoin goes next.

Jurgenlklopp

i feel there is a complex pullback gping on but then again, i said that 2 days ago and the support at 84k holds still. That's why it is called complex i guess. But my feel is being supported because BTC also got rejected at 84.3k multiple times so it will be interesting today what is going to happen. My humble analyses says we will either stay here for the weekend or we will slowly head back to 79k.

0a0d0s0

You've got the accumulating and HODLing part... the bit people often forget is having a plan for what happens next! 😄 That's actually why I built [https://bitcoinlifespan.com](https://bitcoinlifespan.com) ... you can play around with stacking, HODLing and eventually withdrawing BTC to see how different scenarios might work out.

kebertxelag

Some good advice here but a lot of people romanticize buying the dip and stacking sats, at some point you’ll need money to live off of if a significant portion of your wealth is in BTC. You can either stack sats responsibly forever but will have to live with the reduced income forever until these price targets, or stack sats at certain price targets as we go lower then layer out as we go back up. I personally have a never touch/never go below amount and a trading amount that I do this with.

Volgrand

None. I stick with my usual portfolio: BTC, eth, XRP and ADA. And I did bet for VELO, so I'll hold it until moon or dust (or a better investment comes by)

marshallxfogtown

I do the exact same thing, havn't had to sell much yet, and started doing it at what seems like a great time. Have accumulated 0.026BTC since June, average price of 64k.

Charmy_Babe

Have acquired 0.00328898 BTC so far

Pyroll2206

I would had 1% payed in BTC ! Mining without mining XD

Pyroll2206

It is the same with a cold wallet, you only get the keys. No BTC are ever in your cold wallet

Embarrassed-Ad-7032

the 8, with how far ahead of holding they were per year: volatility adjusted momentum across coins (+29 points), VWMA cross (+23), a BTC dominance trend signal for rotating into alts (+13), a 20 day donchian breakout on BTC (+13), inverse volatility risk parity across the majors (+3), volatility targeting on a trend signal (+3), turtle 20/55 breakout (+2) and a kalman filter trend (+1). none of them were significant, best p about 0.24

Tjb82261

Yeah I didn’t think there was anything wrong with the way you asked the question. Since the question asked what % of a BTC and the original comment said 1. That’s why I double checked what they meant.

0a0d0s0

This is exactly the kind of question that made me build the Bitcoin Lifespan Simulator… rather than guessing what 0.2, 0.5 or 1 BTC might mean in 20 years, you can play with different growth scenarios and see for yourself: https://bitcoinlifespan.com

Royal-Membership2303

BTC, public ledger for anyone and everyone to verify anything and everything.

Turbulent-Land-5664

Im coming up for retirement soon. I want to supplement just a bit. Im going to begin monthly withdrawls of 0.00333 of one coin - which will go for 25 years. The rest can sit for my estate. If over those 25 years the value of BTC gets nuts, I might cap my withdrawls at just 1k or something. DCA out.

WildSummerGoose

What’s your goal with holding these BTC?

_SlipperySalmon_

VOO is basically flat since late May Yes, I'm all over the place. Honestly, don't know what to make of it all. I still know I messed up on my sale BUT I also think if anyone is FOMOing into bitcoin at 85ish might regret it I say this because the narrative from so many is that the train is going to blast off and leave you behind! You need to hurry! BTC to 1 million by next year, etc

schwarzfusssanji

In 20 years 1 btc will be probably worth around 5-10 million i guess. Lets say 7 million. So 0.15 BTC is the amount that would be life changing for me Because my Personal goal is a million. With a million.. or even less For example 700-900K You could For example put it in an etf.. like this world blablabla shit And earn 7% a year. Than i‘d get much more per month out of that than what i earn in my day job currently So i could very comfortably quit my job then and live off of that money. But since germany will change the law in 2028 that it will be taxed in the future I only have this year left to buy it to have tax free btc forever. So my goal for this year is to get to 2btc. (Just to be sure you know 🤣) Maybe i‘ll just make it to 1-1.5 But even then i should be fine.

MooseLoot

There are three times for BTC- 1) normal times. DCA 2) It feels really, really low. Throw in extra 3) it feels really, really high. Sell some The mistake people make is not realizing time 1 is like 90%+ of the time

Inevitable-Kooky

Honestly, the more time pass the more BTC become resilient, this bear market BTC price went down only -53%, in 2021 that was -77% in 2018 that was -83% and the first bear market in 2013 -86% So I believe in the future BTC might be a lot more resilient holding will still be a good strategy but if you plan on trying to know the good time to sell, then you should probably start learning technical analysis, and also risk management. I would recommend to learn enough to do your own analysis rather than trusting any stranger on the web: everyone fail at predicting at some points anyways, but some fail less often then others.

SATASHl

How did your plan fail if you still have your BTC? Just hodl and stop trying to be so clever

bananacrazypants

Can you prove this is a hack? They are all valid BTC transactions.

goonersoccereh

Your plans are your plans. BTC has other plans.

colemusic1

I’m really glad you had the guts to admit this, but this is genuinely why it’s so important to find that middle ground. Hell, I’d be stoked to buy BTC at $65k. If I see a near -50% drawdown, with this deep of liquidity as we have now, then it does not matter to me if it continues to go lower, that’s what saving some dry powder is for

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Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1wpj7mq/the_fouryear_cycle_says_bitcoins_final_bottom/ Layah Heilpern pointed out that BTC peaked on October 6, 2025, right on the four-year schedule. Past bottoms arrived 12 to 13 months after the peak: about 406 days in the 2013 cycle, 364 in 2017, 376 in 2021. Run that forward and the final low lands between early October and mid-November. Her line: "it's not over until it's over." [PlanB is sketching the opposite](https://news.bitcoin.com/price-predictions/bitcoin-price-drops-below-85k-as-planb-maps-october-path-to-100k/). His path has BTC at $100,000 in October, above the $126,000 record before Christmas, and past $232,000 in 2027 or 2028. He called it "food for thought," not a prediction, which is a sensible hedge from the author of stock-to-flow, the model that had Bitcoin in six figures by the end of 2021. The on-chain data leans away from the calendar. Glassnode says the four-year playbook hasn't worked for this bear. BTC sits roughly 30% below its peak, and previous downturns were more than twice as deep at the same stage. Net realized profit is running near late-2023 levels, well below what shows up at euphoric tops. Short-term holders are mostly back in profit and still aren't rushing for the exits. BTC has also reclaimed its 365-day moving average near $80,500, a level historically tied to stronger regimes. Prediction markets put the odds of $100K this year at roughly 40%. $80,500 is the line both camps are watching. Hold it through October and the "one final leg down" never shows up. Lose it on a weekly close and the cycle crowd gets its low right on schedule. The mid-$80,000s, where BTC just slipped from $86K to under $85K, has to turn into support before $100K becomes a real conversation. I'm with Glassnode on the calendar. The four-year cycle assumed retail-driven crashes of 70% or more, and this market already took its drawdown at a fraction of that depth with ETFs holding a big share of the float. I don't expect an October capitulation. I don't buy $100K by Halloween either. Going from $84K to $100K in five weeks needs a wave of fresh demand this tape hasn't shown yet. October most likely holds above $80,500 and grinds sideways, which disappoints both camps. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Malavero

Just BTC

colemusic1

I’m merely stating the reason BTC may be moving up or down based on macroeconomics, and that it’s becoming increasingly more sensitive to fluctuations in DXY, the bond market and oil futures / inflation fears (as per my original comment. The rest of what you said has literally nothing to do with anything of what I was saying, I wasn’t even saying anything about BTC itself lol.

No_Cat_8269

Never tell people you have BTC

GrunSpatzi

Shhhh don't tell people. Most people think they track alongside BTC

BamBoomWatchaGonnaDo

100% of 1 BTC will be “life changing” in 30-50 years.

RunItupBaby

Do you have BTC?

Bluejumprabbit

ETH now has spot ETF flows and a native staking yield, both new since the last cycle. Once BTC dominance cools these consolidation calls usually resolve upward, so I'd watch the flows

Bluejumprabbit

Borrowing keeps your BTC but a sharp wick can liquidate you at a high LTV, so most people running this on Aave stay under 30% and keep a buffer. Selling triggers a taxable event right now, which is why the borrow route gets popular every rally.

lukesmit695

Keep it in self custody to use when you please on things that you want from people that are willing to accept it. Be in charge of your own financial journey, take responsibility and control. Or use it as collateral to get credit against it to fund your life in a dollar-dominated ecosystem. It’s your money, do what you want with it, not what anyone else tells you can or cannot do. Especially people on the internet… but while you chill, never stop educating yourself.. about history, technology, psychology, economics, what money is, what BTC is and the problems it solves by just being what it is.

WhaleWilliam

if they start burning the dolar instead of printing it, it can definitely to below 70k. BTC doesn't burn its tokens, so the opposite can't happen

ratedpg_fw

In my area of California, 1 million for a house is already pretty standard. It's not the median, but it's not going to get you anything close to a mansion. I still see BTC as a hedge against inflation and the erosion of the dollar, even if it doesn't act like it all the time. Being untethered to any government is a big plus.

Get_after_it_puss

Every cycle theres posts like these. Cant wait in a couple years when BTC trades mostly sideways so I dont have to see this trash anymore.

sudo_rm-rf_

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Liquid is its own token. When you peg in, you lock in BTC and liquid creates a LBTC token, then when you peg out they burn the LBTC token and release the BTC from the pool

fishyairbrusher

Negative IMO As fast as quantum can crack it, quantum will secure it. First quantum hacks will not be individual accounts but high value dormant accounts. By the time they are trying to snatch someone’s .05 BTC a solution will be in place. My 2¢

BradL30

Remember the golden rule - time in the market - beats timing the market. In this case / the market is BTC

jgarcya

10 k will never be life changing money in the future... Even in 1973 my house cost approximately $30k in my area.... 10k then wasn't even life changing. Today one BTC is 65k... It still takes about 4.6 BTC in my neighborhood.... The same house as above. And even if we were going life changing means paid off house.... It still doesn't pay for the rest of your needs

Landon875

Can someone please explain to me, apart from its benefits in international currency transfers and access, what the actual use cases for bitcoin are? Clearly not a debasement trade? Nothing can be purchased with bitcoin in isolation. Everything runs through its worth in USD. If the dollar were to become significantly less important, so would BTC.

totalmarc

That's when you start pricing everything in BTC,,,, so 0.5btc for a 4bdrm 2bath house , etc

jgarcya

This is a joke question correct? BTC is directly related to inflation... So even if BTC is $10,000,000.... But a house costs $40,000,000. So how can you predict this?

Sin-City-Sinner

And now it’s almost 3 PM Pacific time and most other tokens are up a decent percent, BTC at 0.02 atm that’s nuts!

TheMaharishiEffect

Anyone giving fiat dollar amounts has a low IQ. He said what amount of BTC. I say .8 BTC is enough for life changing money in 20 years

Sin-City-Sinner

Damn I can’t post a pic. WEIRD!!!! Thr whole market goes down last night, comes back up this morning and look at BTC!!! Omfg I’ve never seen that before ever I don’t think .. has it really decoupled?? Could it be??

_TheWolfOfWalmart_

oh fuck oh fuck I have $12k on there I DO NOT usually keep it on the exchange but i was waiting to finish a BTC trade FUCK

retracement

Would need BTC to have significantly performed in 5-6 years, not next 20. Some of us aren't spring chickens and cannot hold ad infinitum. If it doesn't then hopefully my other investments and a accrued savings will cover it. I'd like to see BTC hit $400k in that time, so in 20 years maybe $2mil. That's not really life changing especially over that duration, so would probably have to own 2-4 BTC now if you want big return. Nothing is guaranteed though and it might even be zero.

Top-Care-8946

I don't pay attention to those fluctuating changes of BTC price. Already proven that it might fall up to 30% and then rise up again 40%. It's not just worth to worry for every small fluctuation. If BTC should lose more than 60% of it's highest top for more than a year then it might be a signal that it's value has really been dropped down.

ThrowingBucketz

Love how everyone universally believes BTC will decelerate in CAGR into the future. I’m a contrarian, my analysis says the rate will accelerate - on its way to $7,000,000.

drparapine

People are generally on a need-to-know basis when it comes to Bitcoin. If they’ve already done pretty well for themselves—or more likely their parents did pretty well for themselves—then these are the people least likely to understand bitcoin, because they just don’t need to. There’s absolutely no issue explaining Bitcoin to citizens of a country with >20% monetary inflation in a year to year basis. Similarly in the USA, it’s much easier to explain Bitcoin to people who actually have to adjust their budgets on a month to month basis based on the skyrocketing prices at their grocery store. The problem is that these people are often living paycheck to paycheck, so they have no real ability to save anything away into Bitcoin. In my experience, the demographic most able and willing to get orange-pilled is the professional class. High income, the more humble the beginnings the better because their poorer parents might have instilled in them the idea of savings over investment. In the past 60yrs, savings was a horribly bad idea compared to investment, because whatever money you squirreled away just had its purchasing power debased to high hell. Now, with BTC we have a chance to beat the investors in terms of risk adjusted returns.

marshaljs

What can 3 BTC mean in 5 to 10 years? Nobody knows but this is suppose to be a good stack imo.

Consistent_Sea6490

Congrats! I got to a but over 1 BTC and then stopped DCAing. I just feel that its enough upside exposure for me

Royal-Membership2303

that's what i read to, one of their graphics literally says "L1" then the arrow points to "Shielded layer"... like okay, that would be a layer 2. I don't even want private BTC anyways, I think overall that would actually go against what it was meant to be.

TheGoob96

I've asked this of my personal LLM before and it protests that AI server racks are not a particularly efficient way to mine BTC -- but it might just be arguing for its own survival.