BTC

Dragnskull

Unfortunately over the last 20 years I've come to realize we are shifting away from logic and reasoning being the driving force for how things operate, towards what's trendy or cool. This has always been a thing to do e degree but it's typically been relegated to unimportant stuff like personal interests, toys, video games, fashion, etc... but more and more it seems to be bleeding into every facet of life including schooling, government and economics. That being said, a memecoin rallying past BTC wouldn't shock me in the slightest

Stereo-Gito

The fact that you wrote this out because someone else claimed a fucking meme coin would flip BTC.... Omg dude get a brain MRI sta

Olivia_878

I hold BTC, but I’ve always felt completely at ease about my wallet.

jondaje

The golden rule, don't invest money you can't afford to lose. Stop trading meme coins Trade BTC. Risk loss management. USE A STOP LOSS!

tomic888

the only reason you like BTC and crypto is because you want to profit from it. If there was no money in it nobody would care. It is no different than playing Poker.

Fun-Analysis-182

Worth knowing those are custodial Lightning rails under the hood. Strike and Cash App move a balance over their own node, so the smooth QR scan comes from them holding the keys, not from an on-chain BTC payment. A self-custodial Lightning wallet like Phoenix or Breez does the same scan at the register, you just manage your own channels and backups.

HSuke

The problem is that the security budget is also decreasing. So the ratio of the amount of BTC being protected to the amount of security probidednby PoW is halving every epoch. New miners joining is still limited by Bitcoin's security budget.

raj6126

How would the 51% on a rising price? With BTC at 100k they would need billions to do a 51% attack. As the price goes up it get harder because of price to obtain 51%.

RareVibeDelight

Maybe, Nobody knows. I just DCA BTC, run my own node and verify. Playing the long game. 🧡🚀

cdaviddav

A year ago BTC was about $110.8k and it's around $81.7k now, so down roughly 26%. ETH went from about $3,990 to $2,420, down roughly 39%. If BTC doubled for you, you probably bought earlier than a year ago, so check your cost basis on each. The real gap is that ETH has lagged BTC by about 18% over the year. On my 0–100 risk score (lower means cheaper against its own history), ETH is at 23 and BTC at 41, but the score has been a weaker guide for ETH than for BTC, so I wouldn't read that as ETH being the better pick.

BarnacleOwn604

I don’t care much about short term price (1-3 years) I care that I continue to make an effort to stack for the future and my holdings go up month to month, BTC is a long term game.

cedarrapidsiaus

If you go through KYC with it buying and selling it they can. Or if an undercover pays them or gets paid by them they might have something. But by straight peer to peer on Monero they aren’t going to have anything to find Between 2 people with offline wallets. Through seeing multiple documentaries and talking to the feds in my country they cant even track people with BTC that know how to cover there tracks. Let alone XMR.

renba7

Your math on home mortgage rates doesn’t pass muster as it ignores appreciation and the nuance of down payments. A 7% mortgage might be a fine investment. Depends on myriad other things. But that’s housing funded by one’s own capital and totally irrelevant, here. Using student loans to buy BTC is such a profoundly bad decision that the interest rate becomes irrelevant.

RareVibeDelight

YES!! Everyday is the right time to buy more BTC 🧡🚀

Ok-Calligrapher8361

I heat my house int he winter time with BTC miners s21++ and a S19Pro all ran off solar

TheVeloRebel

Its not FUD just prepoaration for the narative of the 'Crypto Agility' era. Algo, sui, Nervos CKB, NEAR etc they are all getting to the point of looking like they will be less likely to fall. I do actulaly agree that the threat of BTC will propel the Quantum talk more aggressively because obviously it controls the market All these chains suddenly posting “we’re going PQ!!!” because the narrative flipped and they don’t wanna look slow, all the capable ones jumping too. It’s not pure FUD, it’s just the market finally admitting the risk is real enough that governments and big companies are actually prepping. You can’t keep calling it FUD forever when that happens. But most of them are still gonna eat shit on the migration. Hard forks, coordination problems, big signatures, slower everything, users have to move coins, drama. SPHINCS+ adopted chains will be big, those that already have on testnet or mainet . Chains will start bleeding from bad migrations, the ones that can switch clean get the flow. PQ shit bag coins should be positioned for this, BTC will get political soon I should imagine

Tobias_CBC

BTC dominance and TOTAL3 are useful, but they can blur new stablecoin supply and newly listed tokens into “rotation.” I’d pair them with breadth—the share of established alts outperforming BTC—and spot volume, then define the weekly level that would invalidate the view before assuming capital rotates like clockwork.

TheVeloRebel

It's time to start changing the groundwork and narrative to maikng projects ahve crypto agility. Some new projects are born with crypto agility, BTC will have to follow suit because its the most important to market integroty for now. Its a multi year task and consensus will, get poltiical. Most projects that are smaller will need to find way to already change to PQC becaus etheyre insignificant to BTC. Commnunites are key and not having to hardfork. A lot of projects will get nervos about this narrative in the next decade

almo2001

BTC is a cryptocurrency.

velospeed

You can borrow against your BTC. Can you borrow against your ETF shares?

Verum_Seeker

Jesus, is it that difficult to just buy spot when the Fear and Greed Index is at extreme fear, BTC just hit a bottom zone, no matter if it's not the absolute bottom, and then chill until you get some good gains and/or hold until it hits a new ATH?"

Optimistic-Pie123

I mean considering the low interest, I think the risk is pretty low. Just hope I don’t time it poorly or that BTC goes into prolonged consolidation or downtrend. But I firmly believe in BTC long term.

LearnBitcoinCom

Good question. Coinbase doesn’t show up among the confident matches in the top 20. There’s one low-confidence match, an address labeled “Deribit (Coinbase Prime Custody, unconfirmed)” holding about 39,580 BTC, and we left it off because the label isn’t confirmed. That doesn’t mean Coinbase has no exposed coins, just that none of the very largest exposed addresses could be tied to them with confidence. Here’s the full list, with every address, balance, label confidence, and the block that revealed each key: [https://chainquery.com/lists/quantum-at-risk](https://chainquery.com/lists/quantum-at-risk)

ItemNo7373

Curious cause I DCA BTC bi-weekly too, what macro factors are you monitoring to choose the right day? I mean which day you choose won't matter at all on the long run, why the hassle ?

FeeParking4506

If I apply the same logic to holding cash position, how do you know Fidelity has the cash they claim to have on their books? It is the same audit process that ensures what they are stating in their 10-K filings is correct. Why is BTC any different?

H8ckt1v1st

I am completely on this page, there are clearly times to buy when you get more SATs for $1 USD than others, but chasing dips and trying to time them to align with your resources is draining. I remember someone telling me years ago that if you cannot handle BTC having $10K swings in a 24 hour period, trading BTC is pointless. I agree. I park USD and rely on the SATs / USD price. As of this writing 1,221 SATs to $1 USD. So I setup a buy of say 1300 SATs and forget about it, ANY tools that show historical data are useful if you know how to read them. Most of BTC movement is the whales and long term hodlrs. All that being said, more power to you and share your work as it progresses and I will be happy to zap you some SATs.

jasonslpt

Fear readings are late, positioning is earlier. BTC near 82K has longs stacked at 81.96K (about $179M) and 80.4K (about $428M), shorts thin at 82.0K and heavy near 84.1K. I lean lower into 80.4K before fear turns into a real bottom. Wrong if BTC holds above 82.0K and runs at 84.1K. Fearful at 40x is just regular fear with extra steps. Not advice.

jasonslpt

Agree on the distinction. What I watch is whether the long pools below actually clear and price holds without fresh leverage piling back in. There's still about $428M of longs near 80.4K untouched, so the flush isn't finished in my book. Spot demand shows when price holds after that pocket gets tagged and funding stays flat. Wrong if BTC holds above 82.0K first. The 50x crowd calling this the bottom is volunteering as the next batch. Not advice.

jasonslpt

Dip buying into leverage is the tricky part. BTC near 82K still has about $428M of longs parked around 80.4K that haven't been flushed, plus a $179M pocket right at price. I'd wait for 80.4K to get tagged before calling it a better entry. Wrong if BTC holds above 82.0K and pushes toward the 84.1K short stack. The 25x dip buyers are basically prepaying the next flush. Not advice.

Perfect-Swimmer-4311

I think there is a niche for it, just not the same audience as BTC-backed loans. Imagine someone who has a big gold allocation but needs liquidity for a few months. Selling a chunk might be inconvenient, and depending on where they live it could have tax consequences. Borrowing lets them keep the position. But then I'd want to know the total cost, not just the interest rate. There are fees, margin-call rules, custody arrangements, and the risks of the token issuer itself. Arch Lending now accepts both PAXG and XAUT as collateral, which makes it a useful real-world example to compare. I'd be interested to see how many people actually use these loans instead of simply selling gold. On paper it makes sense for some situations, but I doubt it's a mainstream product yet.

Financial-Milk-7488

Wrong subreddit unfortunately. Most BTC people believe in long-term vision of BTC and DCA. Not day trading. Not saying it’s impossible to make money off day trading but if you look at the statistics, it is slim to none who actually are consistently long-term profitable.

Downtown_Mode7405

Never invest what you can’t lose. You could also diversify. Half in a boring ETF. The other in BTC.

Expo24816

I've understood BTC for many years and you still don't even know the basics. There are fundamentals, it just shows your wilful ignorance. You're obviously one of those people that just can't accept being wrong because it will hurt your ego too much. A sign of low IQ is sticking to a false preconceived belief even when evidence presents otherwise, and there's plenty of evidence showing Bitcoins properties and it's Fundamentals. A 3x definitely isn't the absolute cap in 5 years even though yes that is likely, but even a 3x still outpaces the S&P 500. I think there are better AI plays and even a better crypto play in that time frame myself but acting like BTC is bad is nonsense. There are plenty of scenarios that can cause BTC to skyrocket and even if it doesn't BTC is a safe and great long term store of value. I'd say good luck but you already know it all so I guess you don't need it :)

Tobias_CBC

The chart price is often a reference price, while the amount you actually receive is set by the buy/sell quote, spread and any fees. Compare both trade confirmations line by line—BTC quantity, execution price and fees—because that will show whether the 5% market move was outweighed by costs on both legs.

Tobias_CBC

Because your target is in BTC while contributions are in pounds, the date depends on the future BTC/GBP path: rising prices buy fewer sats, while falling prices buy more. Model a few price paths and review every six months instead of relying on one date. Are you aiming for a deadline or steady accumulation?

Juus

100% in a passive global stock fond. If you insist on crypto, then allocate 5% of your portfolio in BTC.

Optimistic-Pie123

Insightful comment. Thanks. That’s what I’m worried about. I think BTC will hit the 400-700k range within 10 years but, I could time this whole trade very poorly. I’ll end up wrecked if BTC goes into a multi year bear market or prolonged consolidation. Maybe I should think more before I proceed, and then there’s the psychological aspect too. Even if it becomes successful, at what costs? The distress maybe isn’t worth it.

mistfern6

look into Arvexo if you want longer terms. Binance flexible is fine for short stuff but if youre holding BTC long term you probably want something with actual loan structure not just a rolling credit line

Feriman22

I wouldn't try to guess how long it lasts. I built a rule-based BTC regime tracker for exactly this, and the current status is public here: https://ferimanedge.com/regime⁠ I'd rather wait for the regime to actually change than try to call the bottom.

Tobias_CBC

The account long/short ratio can look crowded without showing where the capital is, because each account counts once regardless of position size. I’d read it alongside funding, open interest and spot volume; flat or negative BTC funding suggests the headcount skew alone is weak evidence of a squeeze.

Tobias_CBC

Doing less often works because a written plan separates information from decisions. If a headline does not change the investment case, risk limit or planned review point, it does not need a trade. What are the few conditions that would actually make you change your BTC position?

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BoringPrinciple2542

If you NEED a 2 year max timeline then I’d probably say Bitcoin. ETH is solid but has stayed fairly flat all things considered. I fully believe BTC will crash in the future but I doubt the risk is there in the 1-2 year time frame… more like next 10-20. If the 2 year timeline isn’t solid, there are tons of top 20-40 say altcoins which could have far better potential based on recovery to levels right before the Trump inauguration boom/bust. That’s where I’m putting most of my cards. Take AVAX for example as it is one I pay a lot of attention to. Right around election it was hitting around $60-80 which is probably unrealistic outside of a massive bullrun but prior to it was averaging around $25-35 for much of its history (ignoring the Covid era spike when NFTs drive ETH traffic to alternative ERC-20 chains). Today it’s trading around $10… I see a return to $20 being more likely than BTC doubling so a greater change in value is possible; HOWEVER, that entails greater risk and a less predictable timeline. If you want easy set & forget potential in the short term then I’d probably buy a BTC drop and sell the next time it spikes. For the duration of your holding period just buy the dips and sell the tops while keeping earnings in cash (maybe a stablecoin you can stake for small interest rates).

BeemanIT_1

Playing with leverage is gambling. I got liquidated with 1 BTC back 6 years ago and learned my lesson. Never play with leverage only buy and hold, DCA.

penty

I had thought about mining but didn't want to "burn up my expensive gaming PC" for pennies by getting 50 BTC every few days... D'oh. Eventually ran across the SL kiosk and that felt the safest way to buy, not catting cash to meet someone in person, no transfering $ to weird places.

penty

Exactly what I did ... USD to Linden the Linden to BTC at a random Virwox.com kiosk in SL. I did a little at a time in case it was a scam. I had forgotten the name of the company to thanks for that?

poor_doc_pure

BTC and Ethereum only.

Responsible-Being-36

Im doubtful BTC replaces gold completely as the store of wealth asset. Gold also had cultural value it was physical in your hands and shiny and humans love shiny things. BTC has its own problems to (quantum, whether blockchain actually gets ingrained into economics etc) But we will have an abundance of gold over the coming century compared to today so as store of value it will lose its appeal. The cost will still have a solid baseline above the cost to space mine but not as high as it would be if we were limited to the ever depleting earth Gold. Simple supply and demand will drive gold downwards.

Coleyx123

I hope not, but I feel the same way sometimes. Getting notifications that my holdings are moving is one thing, but now I get more about "predictions" and who's going to win the big game, or when will the government reveal alien contact. Wtf is going on? BTC shits the bed and people are making stacks from it. I stepped away right before COVID to get clean and get my life together, came back slowly in late '22, and started investigating again 6 months later after getting caught up. I left a community of a group of like-minded people and returned to a casino, which is now being taken over by Wall Street. We'll never see big gains again, even if BTC hits $1M, so I guess they've got to keep people's attention somehow.

Cryptomuscom

Splitting between BTC and ETH is safer

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Post is by: ImZainhaider and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1x6nkce/why_i_completely_stop_trading_between_cpi_and/ After getting chopped up across 7 to 8 years of trading crypto, I finally learned to stop treating CPI and FOMC like normal trading days. Standard technical indicators simply break down here. Here is the exact pattern I keep seeing and how I actually handle it: **7 to 10 days before CPI:** The broader market almost always bleeds as people de-risk. But pay attention to the coins that refuse to dump. If a token is quietly holding support and printing higher lows on the 4H/Daily while BTC is bleeding, that is your coiled spring. **CPI Release Day:** The headline number barely matters because the underlying trend dictates the real reaction. You almost always get a nasty 30-minute fakeout to hunt leverage. Most coins just chop or bleed with the broader market. However, the rare few that were already refusing to drop beforehand can see explosive relief runs, while the rest of the market does nothing. **The Gap Between CPI and FOMC (The No-Trade Zone):** This is where retail gives back all their gains. The market usually chops, bleeds, and fakes out in both directions. RSI, MACD, and clean support lines will fail you over and over. It is pure institutional manipulation. **The Pre-FOMC Pump:** The only real exception is if the market starts aggressively front-running and pumping before the FOMC rate decision drops. When that happens, the actual announcement usually acts like gasoline and sends it flying even harder. **My rule now is simple:** I sit on my hands between CPI and FOMC. Cash is an active position. Once FOMC clears and the macro fog lifts, market structure goes back to normal and chart patterns actually start respecting support and resistance again. Do not let the interim chop wreck the capital you need for the real moves. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

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Full-Atmosphere-4818

It was literal terror as entire companies in the sphere were going under taking all the investor money with them and the price dropped 80% in 12 months. BTC was trading at 50% of its mining cost by year end! This 7% pullback and even the entire 50% peak to bottom bear scarcely caused me fear at all, just mild annoyance.

ilovesaintpaul

Guys commenting...read OP's history. Several times they mention that BTC is going to zero. With the recent drawdown, how can they say this? I'm really skeptical of OP's claims. Karma farmer.

Optimistic-Pie123

Interesting. Didn't know that but it makes sense. That's probably why Americans complain about their student loans. If Americans could get their student loans written off, maybe there wouldn't be such a vocal grievance regarding college tuition and student loans? But that probably wouldn't help because you can only declare bankruptcy in extreme cases I suppose? Yeah, maybe I'll go 50% global index funds and 50% BTC. I'll see. Anyway, I aprpeciate your insights.

SeriousGains

Because I’m not a maximalist, even if BTC is still my largest holding.

NoStill2196

If everyone did spot trading instead of leveraging BTC would be at $200k

OscarOfAtlantis

My buddy didn’t DCA into BTC. He just took loan money and invested it into CDs. Safe but guaranteed profit. In our country, one cannot declare bankruptcy to get rid of student loans. So safer is better. Can you do that in your country? If it all goes to shit, can you declare banter to get rid of the student loans? This would make the BTC angle more attractive.

loc710

Crypto is a scam. Just buy BTC

Optimistic-Pie123

That's a rational approach. I mean, you're right. Obviously, anything could happen, but I feel like the quantum computer threat has been a "threat" for years and Bitcoin is still thriving. Not saying that just because it hasn't happened yet, that it won't happen, but I firmly believe that BTC is going to 1M by late 2030s or early 2040s but anything could happen in that time. My friend did the same with index fund, but the ROI is obviously much lower than if you do the same thing with BTC, but the risk is also significantly lower. But I have enough faith in BTC to be able to sleep at night during that period and the interest is so low. How did your buddy only make 5% of the loan? Should be significantly more if he DCA into BTC with the loan. I'm expecting to pay off the loan and end up with more money than the actual loan.

carlosriven

I have been in BTC for 13 years. You dont sell, you wait. It is a long run. My first BTC was around 100 dollars, I have never sold anything.

djscoox

Gold isn't going to near zero because many people wills till prefer gold as a store of value. It's dense, it's pretty, it's fungible and it's scarce. People instinctively gravitate towards gold. Gold doesn't require any complex mathematics, software or electrical power: you hold it in your hand—done, it's yours. Asteroid mining in the next 100 years is probably not something we should worry about; besides, it's unlikely that asteroid mining will be a thing, ever, because the logistics don't make sense. BTC won't replace gold. At best it will compete with gold for market cap and a 50% share of the SoV space is a very bullish forecast.

Optimistic-Pie123

I agree. It's not the loan itself. My buddy invested his student loan into index funds and some individual blue chip stocks and it went well for him. He hasn't paid back the loan but he can easily do it. The risk isn't the loan but the timing like you pointed out. I mean, imagine if he'd done that before a long bear market. It slows down and derails the thesis from hitting the target. My advantage is that I won't get a lump sum. The payouts are like 1300 euros a month, and I'll be able to DCA between 2027-2029, but idk. Bitcoin could consolidate, a recession could happen, Bitcoin could enter a multi year bear market. I'm not worried that BTC won't hit my targets. I'm quite sure that BTC will hit 300k, 400k, and 600k within 10 years, but my timing could be disasterous and that's whats holding me back

ricky74vette

I borrowed 20k against my BTC. I was hoping it would rise up and I could pay it back but BTC dropped into the 60s and Coinbase liquidated almost all of it to recupe their money. C'est la vie

Romanizer

I don't know how it's in the UK, but usually victims ought to be reimbursed in legal tender by the perpetrator. BTC is rather seen as a stolen good or good bought with stolen money and therefore seized.

Optimistic-Pie123

Thank you. Your comment is very nuanced and insightful. Not just straight up good-or-bad, black-and-white perspective. Unfortunately, I don't get a lump sum that I can just invest and let it ride until mid 2030s and then cash out and pay back the loan. I'll get like 1300 Euros each month for a couple of years. Then there's also the psychological aspect. I think BTC will trade between 300k and 500k in the early 2030s but what happens if I just time everything poorly. Bitcoin could go in a multi year consolidation and a recession could be on the way. I'm not worried if BTC will hit my targets. I'm just worried when and if my timing will be disadvantageous. It is completelty legal to use the student loan for investments and whatever you want as long as it's legal in the general context. Many people in my country who live with their parents while studying actually take out the loan even if they don't need to and just put it in an idnex fund and then use it as a downpayment on a house after graduation. It's entirely legal. What do you think?

Optimistic-Pie123

But the interest is low. You need to take the other things into account. It's not like I'm getting a mortgage to buy BTC. It's a student loan with really low interest. But I understand that people still think it's irrational. Even if it makes sense economically, it could also put a toll on my mental health due to the stress. But I think the risk is pretty low. The interest is even lower than the interest in a savings account.

Optimistic-Pie123

Ja, haha. Funderar på att ta CSN lånet för att investera i BTC

RetiredAvocado

It's not free in terms of mental cycles to do everything right with hardware wallets and backups but certainly much cheaper. FBTC charges a 0.25% so on a ~12.4 BTC ($1M) holding you're charged $2500 every year rather than $250 hardware wallet every 3 or 4 years. I recommend and do buy a newer wallet from time to time, same as upgrading a phone from time to time.

Optimistic-Pie123

Will I not be able to enjoy college while I'm in this risky trade? Yeah, I mean could lead to some insomnia and chronic anxiety which prevents me from enjoying my college life because I just stare at charts. But it's Bitcoin, I'd be worried if it was altcoins or individual stocks. But I've got some faith in BTC and index funds. I see them as strong vehicles that will pull through. Time is on my side. But I appreciate the honesty. I didn't come here to just confirm my bias. I want honesty. Every opinion is welcomed. I'm genuinely looking for what's the most rational and beneficial decision.

Optimistic-Pie123

Yeah. I'm lucky to live in a country that offers free higher education, and I'm living with my parents while studying so I don't have to worry about rent and other expenditues. And also the interest on student loans are very low. It's at the highest rate right now in years and it's currently around 2%. I absolutely think BTC will outperform that and that my thesis will hold sufficently for me to make a good profit. I'm just worried that I'll get unlucky and that Bitcoin goes into a long consolidation but again, I've got time on my side. What do you think?

Ok_Knowledge_4977

When this news came out? Also notice that even with such news, the price keeps plummeting. So this should tell you BTC don’t give a f\*\*\*!!!

Optimistic-Pie123

Yeah. I'm not pressed for time. I could let it sit until 2040 if I wanted to but I'd still want to pay it back within 10 years because I don't want the debt to grow if Bitcoin goes into a long period of consolidation. But I think it's quite safe. Not safe like an index fund but I think it's worth the risk. I'm only going to buy BTC. Absolutely no shitcoins which imo is every coin besides BTC

Affolektric

My Alts are down by 90% - BTC doesn‘t fall that much. And just no - why would BTC have to be at 110k? It could be at 40k and still reach 200k next cycle

Optimistic-Pie123

I honestly think we'll never see 30k BTC again. Maybe 50k.

OnbelyVerse

Your last point is probably one of the best contributions to this thread. We totally agree with you. In our case, we receive BTC as payment for our services, so the real challenge isn't when to buy, but how much to hold and when to take profits. At the end of the day, there's little point in accumulating Bitcoin if you're forced to sell at the worst possible time just to keep the business running. Great point!

Ok_Pollution7093

Depends entirely on cash flow. I've seen people treat BTC holdings like free equity, forgetting rent is due monthly in fiat. If your margins already suck, stacking sats won't save you, it'll just delay the funeral. The businesses that'll win aren't the ones holding the most, they're the ones that can afford to never sell during a 70% drawdown.

SpaacemanK

I work on a blockchain project adjacent to BTC, and I sometimes find the need to run a node on either mainnet or testnet. There are 3 possible reasons you might want to run a BTC node yourself, the first one is block rewards and mining, but I doubt it would be profitable if you’re just running it on your own machine. 2nd reason would be to participate in the network directly and not rely on someone else’s node to broadcast your transactions, so you basically guarantee that you can’t get censored. 3rd and final reason which is most altruistic, would be to help with decentralization. If you’re interested in any of these 3 I would say go for it, the setup is not too complicated and I believe an LLM would be a huge help for this.

xiskghferx

Losing money? You don't lose money if you hold it. BTC = money.

UprightFestive

I'd be more comfortable with the business that keeps enough fiat to cover operating expenses before holding any Bitcoin long term. The one converting immediately sacrifices upside, but it also removes a major source of balance sheet volatility. Moon is where I'd keep personal speculation on BTC direction rather than treating a company's working capital as a trading position.

One_Screen1104

I'd start with understanding what the blockchain records, how wallet keys work and why Bitcoin has a limited supply before worrying about price predictions. Also learn the difference between owning BTC and getting exposure through another financial product. I use Moon for directional Bitcoin wagers but that's not the same as buying coins and controlling your own wallet.

ContributionFlat4663

The Bitcoin itself stays recorded on the blockchain, so what governments really need to secure is control over the private keys. I'd imagine the bigger concern is institutional custody procedures, offline storage and preventing one person from moving the funds. Moon gives me exposure to Bitcoin price movements through wagers but actually holding BTC involves an entirely different security problem.

bobbyv137

Sadly, the majority (not wholly) of BTC held in the ETFs and by MSTR is in the custody of Coinbase. Presumably the US gov holds a significant amount there too. Coinbase is a US publicly listed, massively regulated company. Armstrong is literally sitting at the same table as the President. If Bitcoin goes the way many hope/believe it will in the next 10-20-30 years, there is a strong chance a 6102 type surrender/seizure will take place. They will issue the then fiat denominated price of BTC (likely through stablecoins or some form of CBDC), and then revalue it.

OnbelyVerse

Fair point about volatility tolerance and runway. Those are exactly the factors we think businesses should consider. For context, Onbely Verse is a bootstrapped company with no external investors or funding rounds. We currently have approximately 12 months of operating runway, so capital allocation and treasury management are very real considerations for us. As for the disguised advertising, we're posting directly from our official business account. We're pretty transparent about who we are and what we do. We're here because we want to connect with the Bitcoin community and other business owners navigating similar decisions, not promote our services. And your point actually raises a good question: for a bootstrapped business with 12 months of runway, would you prioritize extending fiat reserves or consider retaining a small percentage of BTC earned through actual sales? Genuinely interested in your perspective.

gaugeprower

I spent 0.0325 BTC at McDonald’s, it was worth $12.00 at the time. Most expensive 10 piece nuggies meal ever. No regrets!

hungry_bra1n

I agree about BTC but feel it’s too complex and risky and poorly understood for the mainstream. I’m aware of lightning but I prefer DCA to spending BTC. I’m very far from an expert but was hoping those in the know might have more easily accessible options to experiment with.

loc710

Whatever happened to just stacking sats and having sovereign wealth? Why is everyone trying to get rich quick with options and leverage? And then when they lose it all (maybe besides OP) they blame BTC.

Archophob

>Difference is, BTC has absolutely no intrinsic value. that's not a difference. "Intrinsic value" does not exist for any asset class. Value is purely subjective.

PreferenceOk2716

If the BTC came from fraud victims’ money, returning it to them seems like the obvious goal. Proving who is entitled to what is the hard part. What would justify the government keeping it instead?

GoatMilkIsGoodForYou

I bought my first bitcoin through buying SL Linden with paysafecards, then converting them to BTC on Virwox.com. What a time to be alive

lbsta

If you sold this position BTC for 550usd you must have bought it for less than 100usd

Hugh108

My plan is to sell or start selling my BTC when I'm about 75, while my brain is still in good condition. I'm 70 now and healthy, and I'm sure I'll still be alive and healthy when I'm 75. I wrote some detailed instructions for my wife about how to access my BTC if I kick the bucket before her, but she said, "It's too difficult". These instructions are now sitting in a bank deposit box. We don't have any children. I've made a will but it doesn't cover BTC, and the lawyer who wrote the will for me was clueless about BTC.

powerguy134

I think BTC was designed to be used by everyone.

OnbelyVerse

At Onbely Verse, we think businesses should consider keeping some of the Bitcoin they earn, as long as their operating expenses are covered. There's a big difference between building BTC reserves from actual sales and borrowing money to buy Bitcoin. Sure, the price could drop. But selling every payment immediately also means missing out on potential long-term gains. We think that trade-off is worth considering, even if it won't make sense for every business.

Afraid-Location-3952

There’s obviously low risk, medium risk and high risk. Buying crypto - low to medium gamble but you need to be clued up about the bull run obviously Day trading is - HIGH GAMBLE, Might be a little more calculated then going casino and putting a number on roulette but it’s still high risk. Last year i lost $500k day trading thinking I knew it all, I made 50k in 5 minutes I remember longing BTC, I thought I was the man. Remember the easy the win, the easy the loss. I lost it all in the span of 5 months.. moral of the story is you have to understand money management. Only risk what you can afford to loose and don’t chase the dragon, hell take you to hell

_Abort_Retry_Fail

I feel the oposite, why i didn't bought more in past. BTC ofc. In my opinion we are living the last time we could buy btc bellow 100k, and still possible to stash some sats, when price rises again above 100k, it will be to expensive to buy a nice stash of sats. "Whole coiners" will be rare for normal people, buy while still possible

SuddenAd9348

Difference is, BTC has absolutely no intrinsic value. It is a wildly speculative game of musical chairs. This time next year, the value will be half again.

funboy221173

Ist mir vollkommen egal. Auf lange Sicht ist BTC das beste, was man tun kann

SeriousGains

Imagine panicking with BTC at 81k

wpu7zs9drh_ruutukf

If nobody was mining BTC one gpu would be able to take all the profit. Less miners make it easier more make it harder.