BTC

GxM42

Obviously. But that’s what’s going to happen. It’s BTC or govt controlled crypto.

FamiliarMulberry8017

Could be $360k doesn't sound crazy for 2028 if the liquidity and market cycle line up, but I wouldn't be surprised if BTC overshoots it either..

nbkdk6q

BTC isn’t likely dead at all. I think that, if anything, the crypto ecosystem thins out and remaining capital concentrates into BTC for its original purpose (digital gold). Im not smart enough to know which of the smart contract platforms stand the test of time. The memes are fueled by hype, and the hype just isn’t there. I also never understood NFTs, at least not beyond what I understand about other collectibles like baseball cards (they go through really long cycles), art, wine, etc.

mathaiser

Because crypto is a scam and BTC is a miracle. He knows. BTC is entirely different from anything else out there.

LightningShiva1

Ive never said it doesn’t have any value. Thats what you assumed and only you. If I thought they did not have any value I wouldn’t be wasting my time on here. Barring few major chains most of them bs forks and ghost towns nobody uses. Compared to AI, the usecase is not even close. You can see it reflect evidently in the marketcap. Nvidia alone (1 company affiliated with AI is worth 4T$) BTC is worth 1T$. Besides if I wanted quick transfers I could also use NANO, XRP, PAXG (which is tied to gold) and Ive used them on more than few occasions. And your comment personally attacking me came across to me as kinda weird ngl. Not sure whats the need to get so defensive, you an I are not going to change the world order. Calm down.

roopert

Real world utility for fuzzy dice, candy, and ps5 trade in. Better than BTC if you think about it

desdecuando1

Porque esto es reddit. No entiendo tu punto la verdad. Simplemente no tiene sentido darle tu oro a una potencia pirata. Van a robar tú dinero es su naturaleza. Es absurdo en todos los sentidos. Talvez si lo escribiera en inglés, entenderías la ironía de tu retórica en un sub de BTC.

MonXMR

Hey there! After further investigation, there seems to be an issue with the transaction that CashApp sent you. They initially sent this Parent transaction, which includes the output you received for 0.00489635 BTC: [https://mempool.space/tx/632188193a9ea4f445891c3280707557cd8d1e694e87d1d319d2e3c0a827025d](https://mempool.space/tx/632188193a9ea4f445891c3280707557cd8d1e694e87d1d319d2e3c0a827025d) However, there is also the subsequent Child Pays For Parent (CPFP) transaction, which you see on the block explorer as being sent to OP\_RETURN: [https://mempool.space/tx/1ff8742b770f75fd16310f63033c74867278c4e6ba1b5891df7b42222e4aebc7?cpfp=true](https://mempool.space/tx/1ff8742b770f75fd16310f63033c74867278c4e6ba1b5891df7b42222e4aebc7?cpfp=true) It seems that CashApp may have messed something up, and spent the 0.00489635 BTC you received in the CPFP transaction. Have you ever tried contacting CashApp to ask them to review this further? They may have further insight to what happened with these transactions.

S1eeper

They won't pivot to BTC, almost all of the 21million coins are mined.

silence2087

Like the SP500 doubling over the past five years and BTC ending up where it started?

tekmiester

Your math is a bit off. BTC was around $600 10 years ago.

Remarkable_Wish_5106

Wall Street isn't buying BTC. The ETF's are mainly retail and hedge funds for trading.

simonbleu

Yes, but some like BTC are consolidated nat this point and people like to gamble. There are no filters or pretense at this point in crypto used for speculation, and it has advantages over the stock market, like ni regulations in the same ballpark

roopert

Can’t possibly go tits up. I’m 50% BTC and 50% Chucky Cheese tokens

roopert

Stocks or real estate. I’m bearish on BTC and Saylor the lulcow

Left_Entrepreneur918

You need to look further AI is a speculative bubble and will pop, when it does all these data centers will pivot to BTC or a mix of the two. AI won’t die but in the lull btc will fill a hole and cheap power already negotiated. That’s the why people are rushing to build data centers now before it crashes, it’s a big shell game that will fall, then rebuild but these contractors building them are getting rich now.

Useful_Calendar_6274

sure. the internet is just computers connected in the network of networks. someone will rebuild it soon enough and the software of BTC can keep running.

Mr_Eckert

I agree that the fate of MSTR is tied to the fate of BTC.

tekmiester

If the UK suffers hyperinflation, then we have bigger problems and BTC will probably be crashing anyway.

hoppeeness

Just because you know the amount of BTC it doesn’t mean it’s different than gold that is also finite but we don’t know exact amount but have an idea

Aztech10

Most products have a use case. Eth kinda does BTC is just a "store of value" but the network costs money to run so it only being a store of value is only a benefit when you can use it to avoid tax or regulation where the moment you add tax or regulation to BTC it's just fiat PLUS a network fee.

Porcellanidae

If we are talking about $50 worth of funds, then just use a software wallet or your CEX to move these.  If we are talking about 1 BTC, than just buy a second HWW and start from scratch. Make sure to always check the backup and move small amounts first.  Verify the seed backup of your new seed with the old Trezor after you are finished and put it in a safe externally. 

Random5483

Could it? Yes. Will it soon? Probably not. People thought much worse a few years ago when BTC crashed down to the sub-20k USD range or in many of the prior BTC crashes. Crypto is anywhere from a very high risk (BTC) to an insanely high risk (anything but BTC) investment. And the levels of insane high risk also vary (e.g. large altcoin like ETH vs. micro cap meme alt coin). But I don't think BTC's glory days are behind it. With that said, I also only put a small portion of my investments in crypto and the vast majority of that is BTC.

Tjb82261

Funny it is my first time. Not just first time in BTC but first time pretty much investing in anything. I’ve just done the best to keep my head and not sell. Not sold a single sat.

Suitable_Acadia_190

Pretty straight forward mathematically and literally, so not sure how this is going over your head but: is there an amount greater than 21m BTC that can ever exist? if not, it is literally finite and of a fixed supply. This is not my opinion, this is built into the code of the strongest network ever created, with a computational power that is over 100x orders of magnitude more powerful than of all the globes supercomputers combined.

Basketballman72

5 years ago we were on top of the moon shopping for Lamborghinis when BTC hit 60k...now the whole world says dead. 😂 I agree OP. Best time to be buying is now, yesterday, and tomorrow (DCA power persists)

Designer_Speech8942

No, DCA weekly and lower your average cost until money rotates back into BTC. You’ll probably be in profit by late 2027 to early 2028.

DiamondHandsDarrell

BTC is basically being pulled in both directions right now. Jobs and inflation are cooling, so the Fed has less reason to hike. But long-term Treasury yields are still around 5%, oil is back near $90 because Iran/Hormuz isn't getting resolved, Russia's oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, and actual spot BTC demand still isn't strong enough to push us out of the range. Meanwhile leverage is building underneath it. So BTC is just sitting around $63K absorbing all of this. That's the part I keep coming back to. It's not dead. It's compressed and waiting for something to finally break the stalemate. I don't know what it would take for that to happen.

Klizz

I've been holding BTC for about a decade now and every time without fail the cycle of 'glad I dodged that bullet' followed by 'guess I missed that train' has repeated over and over. Yeah man you really lucked out not buying it at 10k because it crashed to 60k from 120k.

evgis

Exactly, why would China use BTC, when they can create their own blockchain currency based on gold, yuan and ruble.

No_Speaker9934

Los que compraron Bitcoin a 1 € o 10 € se deben de estar descojonando. 😂 Los pobres de ahora tratando de llegar a 0,1 BTC o 0,01 BTC. 😅

Saffuran

Because we are compressing against 1x not 0x - until we start seeing negative returns (peak to peak) there is nothing to support the next peak being lower. Even if I grant you 1.3x that still is not terrible from current levels - BTC will probably do better than that but it makes expectations very easy to overcome.

JimmySki6166

Just begin purchasing weekly amounts of BTC, from a reliable exchange, any amount is fine to start. Do some research, get yourself a cold wallet within a few months. Learn how to use that slowly. Double check every digit for accuracy when sending to hold. Transfer once a month from an exchange is fine. BTC is the greatest asset you can have right now! You’ll thank yourself in a few years when you see how your investment can grow!! Good luck

CommercialDuck7496

That’s circular reasoning. “BTC fell, therefore Strategy caused it” isn’t evidence. Bitcoin being at $62k tells you nothing about why it’s at $62k. To show Strategy materially caused the decline, you’d need to demonstrate that their selling was large relative to market liquidity and that price moves actually tracked their sales. You can’t just point to the price being lower and declare your preferred seller responsible. By that logic, literally any entity that sold BTC during the decline “obviously affected the market.” Strategy’s sales can add some downward pressure. That is very different from proving they’re a major reason BTC went from $120k to $62k. Bitcoin routinely falls 70-85% in one year. Its happened multiple times before strategy ever bought their first bitcoin. Bitcoin fell from 126k down to 73k without saylor selling a single bitcoin. In fact, he was BUYING throughout that whole time. He doesnt move a 1.3 trillion dollar market by himself.

jll027

This is the reverse of my Mom indicator. If she sends an NYT article about BTC, the top is in.

SaltAndAncientBones

Yes. If something doesn't have purpose (distributed networks/blockchains) or we don't agree that is value (Bitcoin, currencies, assets) then there's no value. Anything that's purpose is to "go up" has a finite lifespan. Currencies: The only reason why any currency or asset (gold, stocks) has any value is because we agree it has value. Granted, stocks are supposed to represent a share in a company and money is backed by a government, but if we decided it was worth less, it would be worth less. I think there's a legitimate argument that BTC has value, but if nobody else agrees, then that's that. Unfortunately, I think many people think BTCs value is that "it goes up", so... someone will be left holding the bag eventually. Regulation is valuable in convincing something has value. We add regulation to help with trust and stability. IE the US dollar has value because we're a society of laws and traditionally, we've been log on corruption, relative to other counties. If the head regulator is pumping and dumping meme coins for rug pulls - then that's proof that the asset doesn't have trust and is therefore worth less.

Sufficient_Mud_3179

MSTR suck until it doesn't If BTC goes to 200K, everyone will call Saylor a genius again

Emergency_Yam_4082

BTC is at $62K not $120K obviously Strategy has affected the market, it comes to a point where it doesnt matter.

CommercialDuck7496

Even if most or all of Strategy’s sales are OTC, that doesn’t make trading volume irrelevant. OTC sales still require buyers and still represent sell side supply; they just may have less immediate order book impact. The point is scale: Strategy is selling roughly $15M/day while Bitcoin trades tens of billions per day. That creates some downward pressure, sure, but claiming it’s “a large reason Bitcoin isn’t growing” requires evidence. And Saylor isn’t “taking money out of Bitcoin.” He’s selling BTC to someone else who is putting money in.

dsk83

1 BTC still 1 BTC, that saying dumb as shit

Erik-Zandros

I work in tech/cyber consulting. Crypto is far from dead. My clients include financial institutions adopting crypto (mostly the blue chips like BTC, ETH) for both consumer-facing investments (ETFs, etc) and internal financial operations (moving transactions on-chain). They are paying money to secure/advise them on these things, so they must believe in it's future profit/savings potential. With passage of CLARITY act, we would get legalized stablecoin yields and everyone in the world will be able to own USD-denominated virtual bank accounts. If you don't have relatives outside of the US or the Eurozone you won't understand the latent demand for US dollars. That alone will make ETH and other defi layer 1's and layer 2's demand go through the roof in the medium term (5-10 years) Lastly about NFTs. Yes the NFTs that were popular in 2020 are likely dead permanently. But NFT technology may be the future of art/copyright - the only thing we have to validate real human generated work in the age of AI slop. In the long term 10 years + , we are seeing a decline in the dollar as the world reserve currency as the US's status declines relative to China. International trade will no longer have a single currency in which to transact in. China has already bought up massive amounts of gold in preparation for this, but gold is not suited for today's instantaneous economy. I think the long term winner here will be Bitcoin.

Rynke69

Not saying I'm right. But some people say it will reach 200.000 - 500.000 $ or even 1 Mill. Right now, It's hard to see. But it really is nothing but a hype. I look at BTC - ETC and others. They follow the exact same curve up and down. Most coins today, will not exit in 10 years, maybe some new will come. But is not a pattern, just guessing. A company is doing well and the stocks go up. A huge pile of gold is discovered and gold will go down. What drives Crypto?

Marlon-Brandy

NFTs were a couple of pixels posing as art. It was evident that it was gonna fail, crypto has been pretending to be revolutionary for nearly 2 decades, yet there's no real need for it. If the world needed crypto, we'd all be using it and paying with it, 17 years since BTC was created and that's still not happening anytime soon.

TownNo1342

I think now is the time for altcoins. BTC has had its run for a few years, during which there was no altseason at all.

tmenjoyer

Oh I know, invested in BTC in 2014.

Saffuran

So let's assume your model continues and compression with the next peak is 1.5x this most recent peak - that would still be BTC value of around $184,500 which is roughly a 3x return from current levels which massively crushes expected returns of the S&P500. I think the next cycle will fare better for ETH and SOL and maybe a couple legitimate smaller coins but even just sitting in BTC will remain fine. The trend is the trend until it ends, and the trend is still higher highs and higher lows even in spite of some macro headwinds.

Ar0war

Bitcoin solves a problem. NFTs don’t. BTC literally saved my mother-in-law. She comes from a country where the local currency is worth less than toilet paper. My girlfriend, who lives in Europe, used to send her money via Western Union, but the fees were extremely high. That was the first problem. But things got much worse when her bank froze her account and asked her for money to unlock it because of something her alcoholic ex-husband had fucked up (gambling-related shit). She is disabled and lives in a country that won’t even help her. So the best way for us to support her is by sending her Bitcoin. She doesn’t even need to cash it out, since there are many businesses that accepts it. Bitcoin is hope, especially for people whose country’s politics have failed them. My gf sends her BTC every single month. There is literally no other way for her to help her, since she has had no access to her bank account since 2019.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

lol so now you're resorting to moving the goal post. I never said anything about a dying asset. I said the returns are exponentially more muted. But since the data wasn't backing you up, you had to change it to "no BTC is not dying" lol. All you have to do is look at a chart to see what I'm talking about: https://preview.redd.it/3o8wvb1ibejh1.jpeg?width=959&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68dd4285dae0856f4a019eb27778dcf562e49bdf

ubermensch1001

Honestly, man, this last cycle was pretty boring and there was barely any euphoria, little retail interest, etc. You could chalk up a lot of this to tight monetary policy, but I think in an environment that was frothier we easily would have been at 150k+. RSI peaked with the ETF hype in Q1 of 2024. We had a nice pump after the '24 election where alts ran pretty hard but after that and going into 2025 the market slowly fizzled away. BTC did set a new all time high last October, barely, but no one gave a damn. In contrast, now we are seeing loosening monetary policy and the right setup for something more akin to 2021. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see BTC at 250k+ as we go into 2028 and I also think that the alt season that we never got this last cycle will come into full swing and make up for what we missed.

Saffuran

There is no data showing that, and if you look at BTC charts and see an asset that is dying I'm sorry but you're a fool and should probably stick to index funds if you're wanting to invest. Any random statement is possible going into the future but BTC may literally be the only asset where from cycle top to cycle top it doubles in value and have genuine idiots say it is dying. You're like the "Don't buy Bitcoin because you know it's gonna crash" guy but literally believing that while the OG video was completely sarcastic.

ackyou

If BTC goes up MSTR goes up. Not sure by how much but either way a short of MSTR does not do well in that situation. 

ubermensch1001

Given how low it is right now I plan on just letting my ADA position ride. BTC is an obvious one. ETH I think is solid but what makes me a bit less excited about it is I don't think it will make massive returns relative to BTC. For instance, in 2021 it peaked at .085 to BTC, so it could maybe do a 2-2.5x compared to BTC at best. The only alts I'm really considering are maybe SOL and LINK.

Saffuran

% returns go down as the raw value of an asset/sector goes up. That's just how things work. Crypto cycles will still generally outperform the stock market so long as you pay attention to their rhythm and cadence. Grifter President didn't help by siphoning off money to his scams that would have otherwise gone into legitimate projects, but fools do like to be separated from their money. We haven't even exited the bear market cycle yet (likely somewhere from here at the prior ATHs in the 60k range to the mid 40ks - timeline wise sometime in October) there is no sign/data/evidence whatsoever at all that points to BTC being on track for its next ATH to be lower than the one set at the end of this last cycle.

matthegc

It’s a BTC derivative

Timely-Fig2030

E.g.: ETH, SUI, XLM , ICP, BTC, TAO, etc. Centralized fake-crypto, such as pengu, bonk, mother, hogan, turbo, popcat, ... and the billions of other shitcoins, created by 12 year old pimple assholes or a corrupt president or a wannabie star is not decentralized, nor trustless. Fuck memecoins!

Physics2234

BTC's crash is just back to where it belong, thats what i see

Kacey_50

No, you don’t sell your BTC — that’s the whole point. You lock your sats as collateral to get fiat cash without triggering a taxable event. The "volatility proof" part is just how Strike structures the risk/hedging so your loan doesn't instantly blow up during standard crypto swings. Still, watch your LTV if the market dumps

fan_of_hakiksexydays

We had exponentially lower returns last bull cycle. If you really want to talk about what track BTC is on right now, it's on track to potentially have a lower peak next bull cycle and not hit a new ATH.

CollarControl

MSTR is the federal reserve of BTC

Saffuran

**BTC** and **ETH** are solid, I have no faith in ADA but you do you. **SOL** is still solid. Outside of those three mostly only dabble smaller positions in **ZEC** (privacycoin), **HYPE** (good growth map and tokenomics), **ONDO** (traditional markets moving into crypto with a potential inevitability of 24/7 stock trading using blockchain -- general RWA exposure.)

RonnyApple

Yes long term it will be destroyed…. I consider 2027-2029 as the last opportunity to make money on crypto. I believe BTC Marley reaches 120-130k, that’s it. And then the cycle will be concluded. But against quantum computer will destroy crypto after 2030. That’s for sure

RonnyApple

It’s over for BTC this cycle… the halving will push BTC. But against its just buy the rumor sell the news. What else is going to push BTC ? I can see 130k and that’s it. Everyone will be expecting 2029 as a bullish top. I expect it the end of 2028. So the cycle riders are killed by the whales. And the cycle will officially be concluded. I mean quantum computers will hack satochis wallets etc. crypto won’t survive past 2030

Charming-Animal-8856

Imagine all the money you could've made in stocks instead of garbage BTC...

foxyevolution

The cost to mine a BTC absolute flor is $47k and the average floor is $63k. Do with that what you will but BTC always aticks around it's floor. This is why you see preople preaching both of these price points

unforseen0_o

I want to talk about why the Coldcard incident from a couple weeks ago is scarier than most hardware wallet stories, and why ERA's response is a genuinely good case study in designing around the failure instead of just certifying against it. Quick recap for anyone who missed it. Starting July 30th, attackers began pulling roughly 1,367 BTC, about $89 million, out of thousands of Coldcard wallets. The cause traced back to a firmware bug from 2021. Under certain conditions, some devices silently fell back to a weak software random number generator during seed creation instead of using the hardware one they were supposed to rely on. The resulting seed phrases looked completely normal. There was no error, no warning, nothing that would tip off a user that anything was wrong. The keys were just reconstructible offline, and stayed that way for years until someone finally did the reconstructing. What makes this genuinely unsettling isn't the dollar amount, it's that Coldcard's RNG was a certified, respected component from a respected wallet. Certification tells you the chip behaves correctly in a lab. It says nothing about whether the firmware around it will actually route your entropy through that chip every time, under every condition, forever. That gap between "the chip is certified" and "the wallet used the chip correctly" is exactly where Coldcard users got hurt. ERA's blog post lays out how they're designing against that exact gap rather than just pointing at a certificate and calling it a day. Their seed generation pulls from up to five independent sources instead of one: Always active, two separate hardware random number generators from two different manufacturers. An STM32 microcontroller whose entropy is validated against NIST's statistical test suites, and an ATECC608C secure element whose entropy source is formally certified under NIST SP 800-90B. Different silicon, different vendor, different failure modes, so one bad batch or one bad firmware assumption doesn't take down the whole system. Optional, if you choose their expert flow, three more sources that come from you specifically. You draw on the screen, you shake the device, and you sweep the camera across whatever room you happen to be sitting in. None of that can be predicted by a factory or a supply chain attack, because it didn't exist until you made it exist in that exact moment. Every one of those user driven sources has to pass an on device randomness test before it counts. Leave the camera face down or barely tap the screen and the device just rejects it and makes you try again. If you skip the expert flow entirely, the slots that would have come from you get backfilled with fresh hardware entropy instead, so your seed is never weaker than the two chip baseline, only ever equal to it or stronger. All five sources then get combined through SHA-512/256, a one way hash function where partial knowledge is worthless. Knowing four of the five inputs perfectly still leaves an attacker with nothing they can use, because the function doesn't degrade gracefully. One honest source is enough to keep the output unpredictable. Where I'd push them further: everything above comes from ERA's own team, and while that's not a red flag by itself, "trust us, we tested it" is the same energy that let Coldcard's certified chip fail quietly for five years. To ERA's credit, they've already followed up with a technical report running their actual chips through NIST SP 800-90B, SP 800-22, AIS-31, and PractRand test suites, along with cold boot forensics, which is a real step toward "don't trust, verify" rather than just saying it. The next thing I'd want to see is an independent third party audit of the actual mixing implementation itself, not just the individual chips, since that's the layer where Coldcard's bug actually lived. If you're into wallet security or you're the kind of person who reads audit reports for fun, worth the full read: https://blog.era-wallet.com/randomness-you-dont-have-to-trust-how-era-generates-your-seed-phrase/

roopert

Copium off the charts. It’s not just the magnitude of their sales but also their radical change in strategy (sell your kidney, not BTC etc) and weakness that is spooking the markets. If it looks like they are in a death spiral, other rats will flee the sinking ship and compound the issue. What Saylor chud is doing has a massive impact on market sentiment

CommercialDuck7496

I’m not saying Strategy’s selling has literally zero effect. Every incremental seller affects supply/demand at the margin. I’m saying calling it a “huge drag” is completely unsupported by the scale involved. Strategy sold $108.6M of BTC over the latest reported week, or roughly $15.5M per day. Bitcoin is currently doing roughly $31B of daily trading volume according to CoinGecko. That makes Strategy’s selling about 0.05% of total daily BTC turnover. Even using CoinGlass’s much narrower $3.5B/day spot-volume figure, it’s only about 0.44%. So what exactly is the mechanism by which a seller representing roughly 0.05% of broad daily volume becomes a “huge drag on the market for the foreseeable future”? You can reasonably argue that their selling creates some marginal downward pressure. You cannot just jump from “some sell pressure exists” to “the quantity is so enormous that it has to materially suppress Bitcoin.” The quantity is not enormous relative to the market. And the derivatives market makes the comparison even more extreme. CoinGlass is currently showing roughly $50B/day of BTC futures turnover, versus Strategy’s ~$15.5M/day of BTC sales. Their daily selling is roughly 0.03% of futures turnover. Futures volume obviously shouldn’t simply be added to spot volume as though every derivatives trade represents physical BTC liquidity, but it illustrates the scale of the market Strategy is operating in. The legitimate argument would be that BTC order book depth can be much smaller than headline daily volume, so if Strategy dumped $100M aggressively into thin books over a short period it could move the price temporarily. But we have no evidence that they are doing that. Their disclosures show sales occurring across multi day periods. The latest 1,690 BTC was sold across Aug. 3–9, not slammed into the market at once. More importantly, we have an actual natural experiment. Strategy sold 1,638 BTC for about $104.7M during the previous selling period, and Bitcoin nevertheless rose after that sale was disclosed. So clearly a ~$100M Strategy sale does not mechanically overpower the rest of the market. They’ve sold 6,916 BTC worth about $429M across the recent selling episodes. Bitcoin is a roughly $1.3 trillion asset currently trading tens of billions of dollars per day. Calling $429M spread over weeks a “huge drag” requires evidence beyond simply pointing out that $429M sounds like a large number in isolation. If Strategy started dumping 10,000 or 20,000 BTC every week, particularly through aggressive spot orders, then yes, I’d take your direct market impact argument much more seriously. But 1,500–3,500 BTC in a week is nowhere remotely close to demonstrating that Strategy is suppressing the Bitcoin market. Am I missing something?

Queasy-Ride4291

BTC definitely has cycles. But it has nothing to do with halving or peaks. I’m not going to tell you what they are because I’ve put an enormous amount of effort into discovering them. Just know that the next bottom isn’t far off, relatively speaking. It hasn’t occurred yet, and it isn’t in October .

LexxM3

I so wish there were clear separate discussion forums about Bitcoin vs Bitcoin speculation. Bitcoin speculation belongs in the same forums as Polymarket, day trading, and other forms of fun gambling. Bitcoin core raison d’être is unrelated. You know the discussion is about speculation when anyone says “Bitcoins price is …”. It is much more interesting when the discussion goes “1 BTC will buy you …”. If you can understand that, it will advance your understanding of Bitcoin beyond the cycles. If you still want to speculate then, fine, but at least you’ll do it with clarity.

GaRGa77

After 3 bear markets I’m starting to doubt BTC it self 🤣

DiamondHandsDarrell

I don't claim to know any better than anyone else, but I feel that it's a combination of things. Primarily when borrowing money is cheap, funds flow into BTC. When there's a play for bigger gains, money flows out of BTC. Part of the appeal for BTC is that it's immediately liquid. No need to wait for funds to settle. Recently money exited for the AI (LLM) and memory rush needed to power it, along with data centers. As to the halving themselves (cycles), the first was just aberrent behavior that created a self sustained hype model. Since then, it may appear that hype pumps the price. But we're too early to see if that will hold up, but maybe it's more akin to Moore's law where it's true for a length of time until it no longer applies. There are so many factors at play, particularly now that BTC ETFs exist and they'll want to take gains and then buy back in at a later point. Also since different world governments are buying in. The uniqueness is the blockchain making everything instantly public also creates an interesting dynamic. But it's a bit difficult for anyone to know for sure. Coinbase has a news letter in which they share many of the things that may affect price is your interested in learning more. Cheers

Fine-Face6403

It is possible to swap BTC to ETH with https://switcher.fi/, however, wBTC is custodial. Just select Bitcoin > Ethereum, click and swap. It takes seconds and it's fully decentralized.

DiamondHandsDarrell

Yikes. Definitely a reason for BTC

ir88ed

Also old, and have been involved since 2014 or so. The halvings are more like global warming: a push that has a general effect. But there will be wild variance from day to day, month to month based on leveraged trading, FUD, FOMO, scandal, etc. Also your point about sample size is also well taken. Bitcoin has been around less than 20 years, and much of that time was in it's infancy were different forces were at play than now. Just like technical analysis of stocks is witchcraft, same applies to BTC. If you like the asset, just buy and hold.

Realistic-Ad1498

The people with access to the BTC accounts would be long gone along with the BTC

AromaKachu

I think that’s the cool part. The tech may be here, but we’re still figuring out what makes BTC practical beyond just holding it. There’s still plenty of room for new financial applications to emerge around native BTC....

AromaKachu

Yeah, I think the possibilities around BTC are still being figured out. We’ve already seen native staking, lending, and collateral, but I’m curious what other use cases emerge as the ecosystem grows.

CommercialLychee7956

Don't expect any solid gains for two years. If you want money now, find something else to invest in. Alternatively, you can buy something like btci, which will pay out a pretty sizable monthly dividend regardless of BTC price action.

Impossible-Bus1

>The U.S. government is estimated to hold roughly 325,000 to 328,000 BTC across various federal agencies, largely accumulated through major law enforcement confiscations. I'm sorry what did you just say op?

Realistic-Ad1498

No you don't understand. BTC will be worth more than the entire world's GDP. Just follow the chart. It can't be wrong...

heinzmoleman

Everyone thinks they can time it until BTC does what it wants.

_Stylite

Nearly every pattern in BTC is not worth recognizing 

Zerogrinder

Don’t look at dm’s there are scammers lurking here. Keep your seed phrase on paper and off of your devices (photo libraries and cloud services are easier to hack or exploit than BTC). Never enter them on any website and double check your websites, transactions etc. in other words, be vigilant. Read and learn from reputable sources and don’t let the apathy of bear markets get you. You’re off to a good start already.

koinlens

I think its 126k is still better than having other coins for long term😂 BTC will surpass 126K in coming years for sure.

TheReaIJuice

Can't believe how little this community knows about BTC 😭

Purple-Marsupial5855

Crypto is more than a fad… Useless meme coins can be seen as a fad and IMO are done (maybe they’ll jump a bit in next bull market - but really serve no purpose).. but I think coins like BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP will be around

Purple-Marsupial5855

Most lost money on BS Meme coins.. not legit crypto like BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL .. of course some will always follow hype and buy at the peak.. yet that happens everywhere - precious metals, stocks etc

botford80

He doesn't directly say that but reading between the lines I suspect that is at least a part of it. However, Strategy selling off chunks of BTC doesn't seem to be having as much as an impact as say the Coldcoin fiasco.

God_Hand_9764

The religious fanaticism when I learned of it really gave me pause on this guy. And it's something that always gives me pause when I learn it about a person. A little religion is fine enough, but when people take it that seriously and have such die-hard and holier-than-thou conviction about things that are not provable, I'm not about to trust them on anything. But what really sent me was when I learned of him losing all of his Bitcoin (over 200 BTC) due to his own negligence. This guy is supposed to be trusted to help manage and develop the network, but he can't even secure his own stack? This was not like the recent coldcard incident, because in Luke's case he did NOT do everything right. That's just absurd to me that a Bitcoin dev could fuck up their own stack so badly.

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doughless

I'm wondering if the wallet seed was compromised, and in an attempt to sweep the BTC as quickly as possible, the attacker set the fees too high.

Halfgallonkalin

This. So this. You’re spot on. Totally tame and normal bear market with the 4 year cycle. It’s textbook. We basically bottom at the previous 4 year cycles top, which is exactly where we are. No idea why it’s all doom and gloom around here. You should be buying now with an appropriate time horizon of at least a 4 year investment. If you “trade” BTC you lose. If you play with altcoins, you lose. If you buy and hold BTC when it’s cheap according to the 4 year cycle chart, you win. Don’t make life harder than it is.

ptrnyc

I’m not playing dumb - the BTC protocol doesn’t, and can’t, have 2FA built-in. You can put 2FA in the wallet app but this is useless - anyone with the seed can send transactions directly at the BTC protocol level. By design, the seed is the 2FA proving you own the wallet.

kush_patil

**Update!!! I actually backtested the idea behind this chart.** What I tested was simple: * Take the **2018 cycle bottom → 2021 cycle top** window: **1,059 days** * Freeze that duration no changing it afterward * Start again from the **2022 cycle bottom** * Hold for the same **1,059 days** * Compare where that lands versus the actual 2025 peak The frozen rule pointed to **Oct 15, 2025**. Bitcoin’s actual close-based peak was **Oct 6, 2025**. **Miss: 9 days.** I also included next-bar execution, transaction costs and the full daily BTC path in the backtest. The result itself looks impressive, but the important caveat is huge: there are only **two comparable completed cycles**, and the historical bottoms are identified with hindsight. So this is an **event/timing study, not proof that the 4-year cycle predicts the future.** The next test is the one that really matters: **can the bottom be defined mechanically using only information available at the time?** Full disclosure: I built **Helvetic Research** and used it to run the test: [**helveticresearch.com**](http://helveticresearch.com)

Previous_Valuable873

It is always good to see that the one and only crypto (that you all thought you are buying when buying BTC, just completely traceable and non fungible...) is doing so well...against BTC over the last year especially. https://preview.redd.it/8nwuor7uecjh1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=69dee9fc5c7129478501911c0ed9ce87f4a2d22c

DudeWhatThe

Not yet you mean. What about if BTC hits a million a coin? You don’t think dark web is going to be selling this as a hit list?

lazoras

btc being the currency ai uses makes so much sense. any processing purchased through btc makes sense and converting fiat to BTC to buy it makes sense... you could buy computing from any nation with capacity!

devCheckingIn

Miners need to pay their bills, after all. They mine over 3,000 BTC a week.

SkidMarkShark

Self-custody spreads ownership and removes counterparty risk, making the system more resilient and aligned with Bitcoin’s design as permissionless money without trusted intermediaries. Centralized ETFs and exchanges concentrate coins under a few custodians. That adds systemic risks from failure, seizure, or regulation, weakening the network’s antifragility even though the protocol and hashrate themselves remain unchanged. Putting capital into [$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) (and ETF products) funds BTC purchases held with a few institutional custodians rather than individual self-custody. That concentrates counterparty, corporate, and regulatory risks instead of spreading ownership, reducing the network’s antifragility the same way ETFs and exchanges do—even as it supports demand and accumulation.

SomeGuyInOz

Where was the BTC sent FROM? The sender is the one who would have set the transaction/miner fees and the entire amount was spent on those fees, leaving 0 BTC for your wallet to receive.