Reddit Posts
For those who started years ago: Do you ever feel like you missed the boat, even if you’re finally in?
In what year did you enter the crypto world, and how much have you accumulated so far?
Does anyone actually trade BTC dominance, or is it just a vibe indicator?
I live in the US. How can I begin using Bitcoin as a daily transaction payment method?
How could small BTC deposits to a “burn” site result in receiving ~0.75 BTC back? (Saw txs myself)
if you could go back and put $1,000 into one crypto at launch, what would you pick?
PokeFUN.lol : my first memecoin is
Both the (4th) Rainbow Chart and Power Law chart failed this week. Only the Diminishing Returns theory has survived every cycle.
If you rotate into alts this cycle, what's your actual exit rule — not the entry?
[Showcase] Built a lightweight SOL/BTC/ETH ticker bot for Discord sidebars
Many exchanges are facing MiCA compliance issues and Bitpanda is giving 5% for EU who move assets to their exchange
MiCA is forcing a venue migration in Europe, and Bitpanda is paying 5% in BTC to relocate assets for EU users
How do i calculate how much i'll pay in mining fees knowing the amount of btc i'm sending and the sat/vbyte rate?
How to "leak' a small amount of BTC every year.
My BTC is not even nearly close to an alarming number.
Every time I need cash for something it's always when BTC is at the worst possible price ...
How are you positioning in the current market environment?
Is this $10.6B BTC options expiry actually a gamma trap, or are people overplaying the $54k call?
10x Research just put the cycle bottom at $55,000 by October, while Polymarket has 64% odds BTC hits $55K or lower before 2027.
It's not over till Stradegy sells a lot
Every major exchange and lender collapse from 2014 to 2023. The pattern is always the same.
Anyone else notice how differently BTC and alts behave when volatility spikes?
What is the relationship of BTC with NASDAQ?
We keep finding suspicious activity while listing tokens on our crypto app
Can MSTR create a ripple effect on the whole stock market should it collapse to nothing?
BTC is not a store of value, it’s a Story of value which we create to sell to the next person at a higher price.
BTC halving cycle / 4 year cycle / and Elliot wave theory
BTC halving cycle / 4 year cycle / and Elliot wave theory
USDC earning stuck in pending at OKX
Fear & Greed is at "Extreme Fear" — what's actually driving this selloff, and the one corner of the market that's still green
BTCUSD drop till 35k. Is it Possible?
S&P cracking, Iran deal dead, Fed hawkish. A bloodbath is coming and this is the most exciting development of the decade
Has Anyone Replaced Impulse Purchases with BTC Purchases?
I wish I had bought BTC in the early 2010s. I didn’t even know what investing was back then. I never feel like I’m doing enough.
Binance.US charged me a ~5% spread on a BTC Convert transaction. Support admitted it was unusually high. Is this normal?
What the hell happened? Thousands of BTC appeared in my wallet. What is the scam here?
MSTR and STRC are a feast or famine greedy scheme. Awesome in a bullrun, catastrophic in a bear market. It can amplify a rocket ship during good times, but could now potentially amplify into a death spiral.
Stop panicing about BTC price please
Built a small BTC scalping bot (57% win rate) — looking for feedback before scaling
Am I the Only One That See's An Unreal Buying Opportunity Right Now???
core PCE tomorrow, consensus is hot, and everyone already seems sure it tanks crypto
The MSTR mess has exposed some important truths and lies not just about Bitcoin but Cryptocurrency more widely.
Is BTC/USD a Fair Comparison?
Long term holders are accumulating BTC very aggressively!
A conversation with a colleague who believes he bought "2 whole Bitcoins"
Update: From wanting 100% BTC to looking for a balance Thoughts?
Bitcoin Sent to Unknown Address After Trust Wallet Purchase
Congress just Banned a Central Bank Digital Currency. How Bullish do you think this is for BTC?
BTC Desk Network Live | Bitcoin Markets, Treasury Watch & BTC Data
A quick question for those that believe the future global currency will be only BitCoin
Cboe reportedly weighs perpetual futures for BTC and ETH as U.S. crypto rules shift
Mt. Gox to FTX: a writeup of the major crypto custody collapses
Blockchain.com hides my BTC on a legacy wallet – funds visible on-chain but not spendable
Bitcoin is showing who's really build for this lol
There Are No Bitcoins: The Myth of Digital Money
Be honest! How many of you are actually profitable? Tell me how long you've been trading for and what market
Crypto AI Trader — AI Bitcoin & Crypto Trading Dashboard
Why I bought IBIT for the first time today.
Mentions
Is this gonna help push BTC back up to a new high!?
It's not useless, it's underspecified. Dominance going up can mean BTC is pumping or it can mean alts are bleeding out faster than BTC, two totally opposite tapes, and the single line won't tell you which one is happening. I never read it alone, I put it next to total2 or just an ETH/BTC chart so I know which leg is actually moving. By itself it's noise, paired up it's a decent filter for whether I should be holding alts at all that week.
Not BTC dominance itself but it is common for experience crypto traders to trade alts against BTC, cause basically if your alt does not overperform btc you should just be in BTC.
Crypto does not need to kill the dollar to go up. Most people are not buying BTC because they think the US will wake up next Tuesday and retire the petrodollar
Most of the world uses SWIFT. And outside the US are a lot of countries where the argument for BTC is even stronger.
Because they have mostly issued stock at a massive premium to buy bitcoin. How do you think despite having a cost basis lower than the current BTC price that their stock has risen 566% since they started buying?
I really hope we don’t look back in a decade or two and find out that Bitcoin’s price rising was caused by all the money printing in response to the pandemic. Even aside from whales I wonder how many retail investors used their stimulus checks to buy Bitcoin. I don’t subscribe to the 4-year cycle because just in the course of its existence the macro situation with the economy has not been stable to say the least, launching at the tail end of the Global Financial Crisis and mooning after COVID make me weary of putting too much weight on past trends. Its rise to ATHs is much more likely a result of society and the market recognizing its utility and the long-term benefits BTC will bring to society but if it was all a mirage we might get stuck in the doldrums.
You can track IBIT flows here: [https://www.coinglass.com/etf/bitcoin](https://www.coinglass.com/etf/bitcoin) In both BTC and USD.
The whole point of BTC is decentralization and transparency. I think that’s the whole point 😂
Almost definitely not. It has no more 100x investment. Long or mid term 10x sure, 15x maybe. Whatever the mid to long term gain could be at this point, it’s no 100x. A handful of regular stocks will be able to beat BTC in the next 5/10/20 years.
If they stop paying STRC dividends, Microstrategy is dead. That's pretty much the final straw that will break all trust in Microstrategy. They have cash reserves to pay until early 2027. That's it. There are 6 convertible notes with put dates between 2027 and 2029. They are puttable before 2030. Exact value of all obligations before 2030 is over $13B. If MSTR starts paying off all those obligations, it will lose half of its value, and it doesn't have enough value to pay off $13B. So they will eventually need to sell BTC unless the bull market begins by 2028 to early 2029.
'There is no better buy than BTC' This is nonsense.
How do I see Peter Schiff all over the media ragging on BTC for being down when gold is down 30% itself (so far) and is clearly in a bear market also?
Impressive how many people hold the BTC turd given the massive tech boom which has just happened
The regards who sell today because "bItCoIn iS dEaD" are the same ones who rushing to buy when the price crosses 100k again. If you believe BTC will ever rise above 120k again, buying today GUARANTEES to double your money. If this happens thia year or the next one or in 2030 idk. But I challenge you to find another instrument that you know can have a 100% return in 1-4 years
29,110 BTC were sold from ETFs this week. Still a million more to go!
I do. Every three months or so I end up hitting 1m sats and then it automatically transfers that amount to my trezor. My entire BTC operation is taking care of itself lol
I would much rather have had my money in MU leaps in 2026. BTC is good if you want a "set it and forget it" investment.
BTC's correlation to tech stocks is highly telling imo. It shows that BTC trades in line with risk sentiment and hype rather than any of the typical narratives like it being a store of value or inflation hedge.
Comparing the Mag 7 to BTC is both bizarre and ludicrous
The first requirement is BTC pumping people into big profits and holding sideways for an extended period of time. If that happens, and hype is high and interest rates are low (leverage on), and the larger market is risk-on. You need to check Total2 AND BTC.D. Hype / Leverage / Risk On / Btc Profits. Thats the recipe. Alt seasons is simply BTC trades attempting to sweeten their gains when the BTC price gets boring.
Simply based on history I am confident it will bounce back. Plus the fact that there is no substitute to what BTC does.
Yes, buying whenever possible. Time horizon is 10 years minimum. Biggest risk would be if US government decides to seize Saylor's BTC for example, that could bring some negativity. Today, tomorrow, in 2 years, there is no better buy than BTC, it is the only scarce asset, people simply don't realize what this means.
Honestly, nobody day-trades the metric itself. It's way too slow for that. It’s mostly a macro asset allocation tool. When BTC dominance is in a clear weekly uptrend, you stay in BTC. When it clearly breaks down, you start rotating into big alts. Trying to trade the daily noise will just get you chopped up.
Sorry. Just speaking about this last entire year. Think of this from a business perspective. I don’t want to sit on it and add risk to my business. Sure I can convert it, but so can the customer. My investments, while modest, are safe and growing. BTC can destroy people that can’t survive a year like we just had. Leverage is the enemy.
You do your TA on it. If you expect it to dump, you sell your BTC and buy alts. If you expect it to pump. You sell your alts to buy BTC or stables.
From the OP "The first 1,000 participants who move €1,000 or equivalent lock in €50 in BTC" Im not euro so I didnt bother looking at the actual link cause im not European anyways.
I think we still see a $1m BTC price, but not for another 10 years. Whether it holds that price we shall see.
honestly I am watching for 20-10k. what happens if large money gets liquidated? What kind of ecogonomic enviroment are we currently in? Everyone is income the same, with expenses 2x. Few have money to invest. when the confident 60k-64k camp is not talking 50k'ish or 45k. it depends on the speed of which these targets are hit and count for natural drift as the market tests buyers or sellers. Trump already made his crypto grift. so you cant count on him to pump it. What kind of ecogonomic turmoil are we walking into? 2 years left of this corrupt leader, and years to fix the damage done. They rich are trying soo hard to cover up the ecognomic strain society is feeling. What's going to happen when the market turns bearish? How will BTC get dragged along with negative market sentiment? so if blood for the next 2yr+ how far down can it go? 20k? 10k? $POL @.03 and under for a 5yr hold. see how its Mastercard partnership amoung others develope. $POL may be the story next cycle.
Post is by: Nezbuild and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1uh2jl5/does_anyone_actually_trade_btc_dominance_or_is_it/ Every cycle people point at BTC dominance to call alt season dominance drops, money's rotating into alts, etc. But every time I try to actually ACT on it, the signal feels too slow or too noisy to do anything useful with. Feels like one of those metrics everyone watches but nobody (i know atleast) really trades. Like it describes what already happened more than it tells you what's next. Anyone here actually use dominance in a concrete way, or is it more of a background "vibe check" for you? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
BTC and ETH from now easily 4x and 6x, but neither will 2x in a week like an alt might. I believe alts are pure gambles and I am happy with my 3 year 4x+ these days
The trap is that your exit price assumes someone is sitting on the other side of the trade, and on a thin alt the people who pumped it ARE your exit liquidity. They hit the bid first. The other tell nobody checks is the alt/BTC pair instead of the dollar price. Plenty of alts are already bleeding against BTC while still printing new USD highs, so by the time your dollar bag looks amazing the money is already rotating back into BTC and draining the bids under you.
Lo único que puede confiar son los históricos de BTC, es decir, imposible que llegue a cero y seguirá subiendo y bajando pero sobre todo hasta arriba de manera exponencial aunque no se note hasta después, pues es bastante simple. Sólo los tontos se asustan y pierden más rápido que los demás.
It all comes down to convenience. All business ends with the IRS. Taxes, write offs… It’s calculated. And the IRS is dollars. BTC is a wild card and an unnecessary risk. All of my business friends feel this way. We will accept BTC, after you convert it to dollars. Why should I do that for you? I also don’t take pesos.
Sure could be. My post was meant as an example that one market can rise (bull) while the other falls (bear) sometimes because of each other. Not necessarily stocks <-> BTC. But for that specific case I think it depends. If stocks fall because of a nuked straight of Hormuz, yeah BTC will fall too probably. If the AI bull market reaches a certain top many traders will go back into BTC and other assets though. When traders are after big gains, a asset below the 200 WMA is much much more attractive than AI stocks that just crashed 20%. Esp when momentum on each side changes.
If you don’t have enough cash flow to be able to sit on those BTC payments, that’s understandable. But if you believe in BTC and set up a reserve of it, especially in bear markets like we are experiencing now, there could be big gains to be had while supporting the growth of Bitcoin at the same time.
You could transfer to Coinbase, use their credit card, and pay off the balance in BTC. Might be easier.
Exactly - what turned those companies around? They came up with new products and brought in actual revenue, billions and billions of new money. What is the catalyst for BTC? The new investor pool is drying up, unless Trump decides to hoard it with taxpayer money it's hard to imagine a new FOMO wave to lift it back up.
Enjoy sending BTC to people from cold storage to use a daily payments. lol
Places that except BTC immediately convert it into cash. They aren't sitting on a huge amount of something volatile if they need cash flow to sustain their buisness. Some may keep some exposure if they choose to, but typically its just converted straight to cash.
You do realize in the comment you just posted, “This removes the SEC’s regulatory gray zone.” This is **pure AI slop and it’s obvious you don’t understand your own comment** That SEC regulatory gray zone isn’t some bad thing - it prevented people from selling crypto **as an unlicensed security** eg defrauding investors. This used to be illegal and a no no. Trump is trying to make it legal with the minimum amount of regulations that he can use to seek compliance. Please explain why this is good for crypto or bullish for BTC?
Then we’re all just dreamers and there’s no real value to BTC. But I disagree with you.
People are selling BTC ETFs when fear is at 20, oof
I will literally never accept payment in bitcoin at my business. Too volatile. From the time I’m paid to the time I pay my bills, BTC has changed too much and usually it’s down. All business ends up in dollars.
That really isn't a thing. Nobody in their right mind let's you pay for a coffee with BTC 😬
There’s going to be more Bull Run soon! … a downwards Bull Run to $20k BTC.
It's a fake token airdropped to thousands of addresses at once, the name spoofed to look like BTC (or it's just a worthless token someone minted for free). The token itself is bait. It can't do anything sitting in your wallet. The actual scam is the next step they're counting on: you try to sell or "claim" it, the only place it's listed is the scammer's own site, and that site asks you to connect your wallet and approve a spend or sign a message. That approval is the drain, not the airdrop. So don't interact with it. Don't swap it, don't "claim" it, don't visit any URL hidden in the token's name or description. Just hide it. It's only dangerous if you touch it.
This is a fairly accurate assessment of what’s going on. My involvement in cryptocurrency began officially in the fall of 2016. I bought my first BTC in my wallet. Back then if you shared the coinbase wallet you would give someone .01 of BTC. There are a lot of wallets out there that still have that.01 BTC in it and every so often I’d get a message from someone I shared that with, thanking me! That .01 is now over $600.00 We have gone to a whole new level and the acceptance is nothing like it was back then and I watched BTC go from $400 to $10,000 and all the while saying to myself this can’t be real. I watched my account grow from 10k to 95k in a matter of months. And then I watched it fall back almost 90% Volatility is what drives this market. Sadly Capitulation is an important part of the crypto ecosystem. We really haven’t seen it like we have in the past two big pull backs. Going from $15k back to $2k or the $64k to $16k I don’t think we will this time. JMO! I think BTC will test 53k maybe even touch 47k who knows!, it still won’t see what some of us saw in March of 2017 into 2018 and Again in into March of 2020. Who else was brave enough to buy that dip to $3000 for BTC ? And then watch it explode from there to $64k in April 2021 and then retrace 55% to $29k? I’ll bet very few here bought at $30k ride it back to $60k and then all the way down to $16k Nov 2022 do you see the pattern ? Then all the way from there to $124k October 2025 almost a 3yr rally ! And here we are June of 2026 sitting on $59k wondering will it test $30k or will support be $53k Most will never buy a full coin again but you’ll have a chance to buy .1 BTC and pay between $5k and $6k ! Or will you watch it again and say it’s never going to see $125k again ??? We are on the brink of a new era! The currency shift will happen and July 4th this year celebrating 250 years could make for an interesting time to make that shift. How important is the clarity act? How important is the blockchain and the tokenization of wall-street? What alt coin is going to rally 40x is unknown. But BTC will move forward with more money on the sidelines than we have ever seen before. I have a personal friend who is sitting on 3000 BTC and has never sold a single coin. Why some would ask, because he’s his own bank ! If you own just one Bitcoin you are your own bank. That is the goal and I own a few myself. Not as much as my friend but I didn’t stand by watching. I hope those of you who are watching will make your move. It’s about to get toasty!
The answer is actually yes. You'd have 14% more Bitcoin at 56k compared to 65k. Which is even more important when BTC is at 250k...
So you are assuming a stock market meltdown will not impact BTC… that actually never happened before
What about sites that exchange BTC for gift cards for places you normally shop at
This is interesting information thanks. Though, there is nothing on their website about using this for mining BTC, only mention of AI?
No. This is terrible insight. Institutional holders profit off of fees. Fees when you buy and when you sell. Volatility is the goal. They’ve already made enough in fees to cover the impending wipeout of BTC.
Thanks a million! I’ve done the same, except I’ve BURNED some BTC at 1xPPxProfitProphetSyndicatev6F9Ce instead of buying some… 😎
Memecoins did hurt a lot, tons of x1000 posts out there so people leverage their BTC positions and want to be rich within weeks
MSTR can and will go to $0 it is a mathematical certainty. When is dependent on BTC price and whether MSTR keeps buying or selling BTC. If BTC stays flat or goes down that accelerates the end. If MSTR buys or sells that accelerates the end. The longest runway is if BTC goes up and MSTR stays put on its holdings.
I love when Bitcoin tanks because it’s easy to weed out the ppl who have been in it for 1 cycle or less compared to ppl who have been in for multiple cycles. Op, cool man. You are out of BTC. I promise nobody here cares. It’s not your responsibility to try and persuade ppl to buy or sell. You made your decision. Good luck in the future
Before then we were actually free in a pure peer-to-peer marketplace with no corporate overloads caring about data collection and yerking it to statistics, at best you had a local market list with people with coin to sell. Centralized exchanges took over, mining farms exploded, and turned it into the stock market on crack. Including data collection. Including the feds coming down on it and now you get taxed on what used to be a great technology to buy drugs online with. Long gone are the day you could buy some BTC from some random dude on localbitcoins for whatever he was willing to sell for, a single human, not a company full of blowhards like Sam Bagman-Fries. Fun fact, the feds dug up Satoshi years ago and have been using him as a free source of energy after they noticed he was endlessly rolling over in his grave so fast he was drilling to the center of the earth.
We are seeing the AI trade result in institutional rotation out it BTC. The very thing that caused its meteoric pump is now reversing, and what's crazy is we haven't even seen a broad downturn yet, just a deflation of speculative hype.
I don't see everyone calling for more drops, and there are still way too many bullish posts, the bottom is right when you read the desperation of people, also historically BTC goes -70/80% from ATH, at least it did the last 5 times
What is Crypto’s legitimate use? BTC has been around for 17 years. Hasn’t affected or benefited my life at all.
Tbh I will always keep some BTC but I have some financial goals that would require selling a decent part of it, so I’m in wait hoping for some recovery north of 100k in the next year or two. I’m more kicking myself for having bought STRC and SATA with bonus money right before it all started to crater and am now also waiting and praying that goes back closer to par
Unpopular opinion for sure, but you're right. Its a typical bear market except there are like 20 other token outperforming and giving positives returns or overall down by only 20-25% compared to BTC.
Honest take: the four-year cycle was never magic, it was three things stacking, the halving supply shock, retail FOMO, and leverage blowing up on a rough timer. The reason it might genuinely be breaking is that the halving matters less every single time. The block reward is now tiny next to the coins already in circulation, so the "supply shock" is mathematically weaker each cycle while ETF and institutional flows have become the thing actually moving price. Those flows don't run on a four-year clock, they run on macro liquidity and allocation decisions. So I'd push back gently on the framing: "cycle is dead" doesn't automatically mean "up only with alts pumping." It more likely means longer, choppier, macro-driven moves instead of the clean parabola-then-crash we got used to. Which lines up with what a lot of people are feeling, that this stretch doesn't rhyme with the old ones. On the alt pump specifically, I'd temper that. Liquidity is now spread across thousands of tokens and ETFs are funnelling flow into BTC and ETH, so a broad 2021-style alt season is structurally harder to pull off than it used to be. Could still happen in pockets, but "everything pumps" is a tougher ask now. Nobody actually knows, including me. But if the old clock is breaking, the move is to stop watching the calendar and start watching liquidity and flows. That's the signal that's actually driving this thing now.
Saw the title and thought, wtf this dude accumulated 331.24 BTC at an average cost of 47k. What a legend. Anyway, dear OP: sir, whether 331.24 BTC or 331.24 USD you are a legend! I mean this sincerely.
Post is by: Legitimate_Aerie_606 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ugy5xb/eu_exchange_shutting_down_on_me_july_1_where_are/ Got the email that my exchange stops regulated services in the EU from July 1 because of the MiCA deadline, so I can only withdraw or move funds after that. I run a small monthly DCA into BTC and a bit of ETH . Trying to work out the least painful place to land. Kraken Pro keeps coming up for low fees, Trade Republic for handling the tax side automatically, and a few EU brokers for staying inside the regulated bracket. Each seems to trade off something, fees versus tax handling versus how much actually stays under EU rules. For anyone in the EU who already jumped, what did you pick and why, and did the transfer itself cost much? Mostly want something regulated here that I can set. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Not this year, but in 2-3 it will explode. Bitzero is investing $15B into building the Stratos data center campus in northern Utah, which will be up to a 9gw facility, for BTC mining. There are billionaires heavily supporting and even funding part of this. These billionaires know many things we do not, and they do not invest in mining operations at this scale unless they know that they will make many millions, or even billions, on it later. The data center is still a few years away, so that gives them time to get approvals and start building it out before BTC demand shoots up again.
ha, fair — the "just hold BTC" camp has quietly outperformed most alt rotators the last couple cycles. all-in BTC for you, or do you keep a little dry powder for the majors?
Gold isn’t used like everyday money either but has value. Why y’all can’t treat BTC the same way. With BTC, at least it has potential one day to be turned to money but it’s not gonna happen tomorrow Clarity act passing might be a foundational start
I mean if you think they are going down to 42k, I'm willing to buy your BTC right now at 50k to absorb your risk ;-)
If there's still people who don't own BTC in the world, it has room to go up. People are tired of traditional money that devalues itself over time. It eventually becomes worthless. Eventually, people may come to accept that crypto is here to stay and will prefer it. If everyone starts using it, then demand will never go away. Its pricing action will flatten like a stable coin. New circulating supply will never be added, so the risk will eventually be nonexistent.
Based on the assumption we are around the low of this bear market probably $200k will be the next peak. As a HODLer I’m less concerned about the top than I am the bottom of each bear market. AI and space are eating up all the speculative cash now. BTC price is fuelled mostly by institutional investors to balance portfolios. We are yet to see how a prolonged tough macro environment will affect BTC.
For US taxpayers in retirement, there’s quite a bit that can be sold annually at 0% long-term capital gains rate. Some of your other retirement income may be taxed at a slightly higher rate. Live a long life & your heirs get the remaining BTC tax-free due to step-up in basis.
you need to spend more to stimulate the demand and movement of BTC.
Lol. In case you are serious, do you think the us stock market defines bull/bear universally? It's possible to be in a bullmarket in one market while being definitely in a bear market somewhere else. Like Bitcoin. Hypothetically, if money from the AI trade goes back to BTC we would probably see a steep stock market correction while BTC goes up.
lol OP Def humble brags when BTC > 100k. Sad when the haters see it < 60k. How does your fragile sense of self work exactly? Didn’t your father teach you anything. It’s doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks. It matters what you think. You and you alone. Not only are you unable to process this basic logic problem. You turned to Reddit to seek comfort? REDDIT? The home of the mouth breathing basement dwellers? Get the fuck outta here.
March 2020 COVID crash \~10.5–10.6 million BTC in loss 2022 (FTX bottom) \~10.5–10.6 million BTC in loss Current (2026) \~10.69–10.83 million BTC in loss I think we are near the bottom.
After being skeptical about this angle for a while, I now think there is probably enough money anticipating an easy move trade back to $80K, $100K for it to actually happen. Look at how much SPCX moved this week just on trading activity, and it’s larger than BTC
The reality is we could linger sub 70k for quite a while from here. Hell, even buying at 70-80k isn't even really all that bad. With that said, I think a lot of people are also severely underestimating just how fast this could get back to 100k+. Just 15 months after the collapse of FTX in November 2022 BTC was already setting a new all time high.
Buying around the 200 week moving average has always been a fantastic place to be accumulating. In fall of 2022 I did a large lump sum purchase of BTC at a hair under 20k, 19.9 to be exact. Was it the exact bottom, no, but it was pretty damn close. I also continued to dollar cost average there through fall of 2023. Maybe we dip to 55k, but there's a possibility this could be the bottom as well. However, if in 2028 BTC is at 250k would it matter if you were buying at say 65k or 60k or maybe 56k? The answer is no. This is the reason why dollar cost averaging aggressively during phases like this is a better method than trying to perfectly time the market, which is impossible to do btw.
Happy to break down the plumbing for you. The bill isn't changing Bitcoin’s code, it's rewriting the legal and financial rails around it so big money can actually deploy. First, it gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodity spot markets. This removes the SEC’s regulatory gray zone, giving pension funds, endowments, and corporate treasuries the formal compliance they need to clear their strict fiduciary duties. Second, it creates a federal framework for fiat backed stablecoins. By giving stablecoins banking level guardrails, it legitimizes the main liquidity engine of crypto, allowing traditional fiat to safely rotate into spot BTC at a massive scale. Finally, it sets clear rules for qualified custodians and updates bankruptcy codes. This allows major U.S. banks to safely handle crypto custody and settlement without risking their charters. Like I said before, the elites aren't passing this to protect retail. They are building an institutional-grade financial highway so they can safely deploy billions into the asset class without breaking federal law.
BTC right now it’s basically a high beta tech stock. When people want risk assets with great return they pile in…else they sell or don’t care about it. Honestly most crypto it’s based on hoping for a greater fool to buy off you at a better price. That’s why meme coins are a thing. Meanwhile stuff like HYPE, ETH, TAO doesn’t get as much love as I think they deserve. They bring interesting stuff to the table!
What new structural rails are being introduced for BTC with this regulation? Please enlighten me Btw “structural rails” is redundant and nonsensical. In fintech we call these “rails”
Moving the goalposts to a political rant just because your macro thesis got dismantled is wild. You're completely conflating how you feel about Trump's wealth transfer politics with how global liquidity actually flows. Markets don't care about Trump's kickbacks or whether retail gets hosed, markets care about structural rails. The Clarity Act isn't a "nothing burger." It creates a bulletproof, legally compliant highway for institutional money. If Trump's goal is to enrich his elite donors, those elites need massive, regulated vehicles, like stablecoin frameworks and SEC/CFTC boundary lines, to safely dump billions into the market. You are literally arguing that elites want to make money here, while simultaneously arguing they won't pass the exact regulatory rails required for them to do so. Saying the wealthiest Americans are going to capture the upside *is* the bull case for the price of the underlying asset. They pump the asset class to enrich themselves, and BTC holders catch the beta. Editing your comment to turn a failed liquidity argument into an anti Trump diatribe doesn't make your initial take any less mid curve
Nobody cares about BTC anymore. Money is going to semi conductors and memory. Guaranteed gains with continued block buster earnings and long dated contracts. MU will double before BTC does at this point.
This completely misreads how market liquidity and institutional capital work. The Clarity Act isn't about changing Bitcoin’s definition, it's about building a legally compliant highway for big money. Right now, hundreds of billions from pension funds and corporate treasuries are sidelined because they legally cannot touch regulatory ambiguity. Drawing clear jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC instantly greenlights that capital. On top of that, the bill’s stablecoin framework creates a massive, regulated fiat on ramp. That is a direct liquidity multiplier flowing straight into spot BTC. Thinking a literal transformation of U.S. financial law won't move the needle or get priced in is classic mid curve logic. Markets price in regulatory finality fast, and that incoming flood of compliant liquidity will absolutely dictate the peak of this cycle.
The clarity act will do absolutely nothing to affect the current BTC cycle, or be priced in. Please tell me why you disagree
The reality with a bottom in any market is that you can never know until it’s over. Assuming BTC recovers predictably, consider your options: Buy now and risk further losses for being early, or catch the bottom perfectly (yeah right) Wait until price action declares any signal at all that the bottom has happened and things are recovering (multiple green days, a green week, a green month etc). You may be late, but will still catch nearly all of the upside movement, minus a day or a week, and potentially reduce your downside risk and drawdown by a lot. The choice is yours. IMO it is best to buy into a strong or recovering market, not one that is still actively dropping lower each week…
It’s going to get dam ugly for Saylor and his ponzi style investment plan, his empire is collapsing on its knees. He’s been in the red more than being in the green. Only fools will buy his trash stock that has no backing other then BTC which is very volatile
In general, if BTC starts to creep back up going into 2027 they will absolutely weather any storm. A 1 month or even 6 month "crash" is nominal - the internet traffic says otherwise. The reality is Saylor says all sorts of crazy shit and makes things more complicated or at least makes the "business plan" look more like some tweet storm. I would say MSTR is high risk, high reward - what changed? Not much.
I don’t think the thesis is really about him trading in and out of cycles. MicroStrategy’s structure is more about long-term balance sheet exposure to BTC, so “timing the bear” is not really the core strategy people assume it is. Some retail investors prefer simpler approaches like just holding through platforms such as Nexo instead of trying to predict when large holders will sell. In practice, forced selling narratives tend to show up more in fear phases than reality.
Most people don’t lose on alts because of entries — they lose because they don’t define exits in advance. What tends to work better is pre-setting rules before emotion kicks in: taking profits in ladders, rotating some back to BTC when strength fades, and having a time-based exit if the thesis doesn’t play out. Some also use platforms like Nexo to simplify the “hold vs rotate” decision, since it lets them keep assets earning while they wait for clearer exit signals. The key is deciding it while you’re still objective, not in euphoria.
[https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/LTCBTC/?timeframe=ALL](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/LTCBTC/?timeframe=ALL) When measured against BTC it has performed horribly just like every other shitcoin. It's been dead for a long time. Stay poor I guess
Same here, constant chart watching just adds stress. I started treating part of my BTC as long-term and using Nexo for passive holding, which helped me stop checking prices so often. Zooming out really helps.
Most people don’t actually spend BTC directly yet. They either sell it for cash or use services like Nexo cards that auto-convert crypto when you pay, so it works more like a normal card in real life. Direct BTC payments are still pretty limited.
Hard to predict exact numbers for 2029, but BTC usually moves in cycles driven more by liquidity and adoption than straight-line growth. Some people also use platforms like Nexo for holding through cycles instead of actively trading, which fits that longer-term approach. If momentum returns, it’s usually about multiples of the previous cycle rather than fixed targets.
As long as BTC has no intrinsic utility, I don't see it getting out of this pattern. The reason stocks keep growing is because they have intrinsic utility with actual profits. That's not something Bitcoin has.
Yes, you are crazy. Nobody is paying in stablecoins, and Bitcoin is not a reserve for stable coins or anything. Nobody is going trade BTC which triggers a taxable event, convert into stable coins then transfer it. That is ridiculously inefficient for paying for something.
The diminishing returns are obvious. But holding BTC makes it harder to see - as we have that leaning towards being optimistic on the assets we hold. No one in their right mind wants to be left holding the bag at the cycle top, so people will sell earlier each time. Seeing everyone knows how the cycle works, can this pattern last forever?