BTC

bananacrazypants

Cool. So, you didn’t 20x your BTC investment and you agree BTC isn’t a secure place to invest. What was your point again?

Ok_Knowledge_4977

All looks the same! The whole market is f\*\*\*\*\*. So you are right. Just BTC and hodl.

IlbColdOnes

I sold all my BTC this year. It’s not really holding up its plot anymore. Not useful as currency or a store of value at this point, unfortunately.

sheldonmeetshomer

So Musk offered to double any BTC or Crypto sent to them during the Roadster launch event. How does this pay off for him?

bananacrazypants

So, your BTC investment is up 20x? Cool story bro! My cash isn’t an investment. It’s for spending. I have investments that have done well and are secure against thieves and loss of passwords.

Azula_In_The_AMX

The prices of USD and BTC heads in different directions. So someone who purchases in BTC actually accumulates more value than someone who works for or trade in BTC.

jasonslpt

Insurance covers theft far more than price moves, and the price side right now leans down. BTC is near 82.2K with about $178M of long liquidations right under price at 82.1K, and the biggest pool, about $315M, sits near 80.6K. Roughly 72% of the last day's liquidations were longs, so I lean toward a sweep of 80.6K before anything bigger. It is wrong if BTC holds above 82.3K and takes out the shorts there. Not advice.

GloryIV

The fees are, I think, pretty reasonable. You pay 1% on buy/sell and that's it. If you transfer crypto in or out, Fidelity doesn't charge any fees - but they do pass through any blockchain fees that are incurred. If you are buying very much BTC, the smart move would be to buy it on an exchange with lower fees and then transfer it to Fidelity. Beyond that I really have no concerns. I consider Fidelity much safer than the exchanges. You have access to account features that will lock down any ability to transfer crypto out of the account if you don't transact much and just want it to be as secure as possible. I have zero concern about Fidelity not having the BTC they say they do - something I'm not so sure I totally trust the exchanges on.

BrawndoCrave

Yes. Was just posting essentially this same pov in another sub. I’ve been investing crypto over ten years. I don’t feel strongly about its future anymore. Big institutions have gotten too involved. I think they use it to rug pull retail. Interest in crypto is fading, hacks are on the rise, BTC is reaching diminishing returns, and I’d rather look elsewhere for investment opportunities.

Siawosh_R

The last thing he said is Buy BTC . I hope he sells at one point.

bananacrazypants

Right, because there are no fees to transfer BTC, right?

getapuss

They're come out of the same mold. They wear out over time like anything else. Yes, I know that has nothing to do with BTC.

Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> If you need to read 3 books to kind to figure out how to safely use bitcoin. You don't. I just offered them for a deep dive. Not interested? Don't read 'em. > Then bitcoin will never be a mainstream cash alternative. Does it need to be? 16 years ago, 1 BTC was worth 25 cents. Today, it's worth $82,000. Are you buying Bitcoin because of what other people think, or how other people use it? Or, are you buying it because it's an investment you believe in. And, by the way, if you don't believe it's a wise investment, then definitely **do not buy it.** Only you can decide how to spend your money. > I don’t remember people scamming left and right and rug pulls and such with the early days of the internet The internet wasn't a form of currency, nor was it a store of value. No amount of complaining about how hard it is to do self custody right will change the fact that, in order to do self custody right, you need to learn. Don't want to learn? Don't do self custody. Want an easy, lazy way? Don't do self custody. Self custody means self responsibility. Everybody's looking for a company to do it for them. That's crazy. Companies will always screw over the customer if it's in the company's interest to do so.

Mean-Fondant-8732

Came here to say this. I’d read it just recently that the current regime had put the nations BTC reserve on Coinbase or something to that effect.

No-Lettuce3564

Lil bro I’ve been with BTC since MtGox and Ethereum when it forked from ETC. Outside of making meme worthy money, neither has done much since conception.

HSuke

Actually, the current security budget is already too low. Any organization or nation state with $100B could easily prepare an attack on Bitcoin with 100% chance of success. They would need about 5 years to prepare the equipment and data centers for $5B worth of BTC mining equipment.

HSuke

I'm talking about the ratio. If BTC doubles in price, then the amount being protected also doubles in price even if the security budget stays the same. It's dangerous if $2T of BTC is being protected by $5B of mining equipment. It's even more dangerous if $30T of BTC is protected by $5B of mining equipment 20 years from now.

No-Masterpiece2246

Litecoin was only hyped because the BTC maxies couldn't admit BCH was right about blocksize, scaling, fees, and decentralization.

rficher

You are young. You have plenty of time to make (and correct) mistakes. My take here: I'm 47 and if I had access to 2% loans I would take risk without thinking twice.  When BTC touched 65, I took a loan paying 1.9% per MONTH to have the funds to buy more BTC. I easliy repaid the loan with mu saley and got to keep BTC acquired @65

OverUnderstanding965

I understand the fundamental relationship between Cramer's comments and BTC action. Case in point, 16th October 2am. Large green candle. Cramer is the inverse crystal ball for BTC.

BrawndoCrave

Using BTC for transactions is just extra steps now. Merchants just convert it directly to USD. I might as well just use my credit card to get cash back rewards. It’s not like BTC is any faster than my credit card. Let’s be real, the utility of BTC for transactions just isn’t really there unless you’re doing p2p transactions off the books. What I really bought BTC for was to see it appreciate in value and make me money.

shleebs

The merchant can opt in to hold BTC, USD conversion is simply the default behavior, as it should be. You don't want to force merchants into holding BTC and they have the option to hold it, which I'm sure some of them will. The real trick here is that it lowers transaction fees for the merchant even if they don't opt into holding BTC. The credit card networks are cut out of the picture if I understand correctly. Either both participants are using Bitcoin, or Bitcoin Lightning Network is simply acting as the 2nd layer payment rail (just like Visa or Mastercard) and the transaction is settled in USD.

ButterflyOk5723

Remember and use the rules if you are playing a dangerous Game! If u are Trading with leverage u Must and always must use STOPLOSS!!!! another way of doing this without Stoploss is using small amount that u are prepared to loose play with it at 💯. But in your case a big money like that should and must have Stoploss in place! Expérience is key! I have lost a lot in the past when I started trading but I have learned and still learning everyday! Today I BTC liquidated my 200$ at 79800 but I quickly bought it back and now in big profit. Never give up!

Coleyx123

Yeah, but OnlyFans isn't a fair comparison. I'd be making mad stacks as a hot chick on there than ever with crypto, unless I'd have bought when I first learned about BTC in '09. And cycles wouldn't be a thing, just a steady progression, or regression, in funds as I got old and yucky.

Dragnskull

Unfortunately over the last 20 years I've come to realize we are shifting away from logic and reasoning being the driving force for how things operate, towards what's trendy or cool. This has always been a thing to do e degree but it's typically been relegated to unimportant stuff like personal interests, toys, video games, fashion, etc... but more and more it seems to be bleeding into every facet of life including schooling, government and economics. That being said, a memecoin rallying past BTC wouldn't shock me in the slightest

Stereo-Gito

The fact that you wrote this out because someone else claimed a fucking meme coin would flip BTC.... Omg dude get a brain MRI sta

Olivia_878

I hold BTC, but I’ve always felt completely at ease about my wallet.

jondaje

The golden rule, don't invest money you can't afford to lose. Stop trading meme coins Trade BTC. Risk loss management. USE A STOP LOSS!

tomic888

the only reason you like BTC and crypto is because you want to profit from it. If there was no money in it nobody would care. It is no different than playing Poker.

Fun-Analysis-182

Worth knowing those are custodial Lightning rails under the hood. Strike and Cash App move a balance over their own node, so the smooth QR scan comes from them holding the keys, not from an on-chain BTC payment. A self-custodial Lightning wallet like Phoenix or Breez does the same scan at the register, you just manage your own channels and backups.

HSuke

The problem is that the security budget is also decreasing. So the ratio of the amount of BTC being protected to the amount of security probidednby PoW is halving every epoch. New miners joining is still limited by Bitcoin's security budget.

raj6126

How would the 51% on a rising price? With BTC at 100k they would need billions to do a 51% attack. As the price goes up it get harder because of price to obtain 51%.

RareVibeDelight

Maybe, Nobody knows. I just DCA BTC, run my own node and verify. Playing the long game. 🧡🚀

cdaviddav

A year ago BTC was about $110.8k and it's around $81.7k now, so down roughly 26%. ETH went from about $3,990 to $2,420, down roughly 39%. If BTC doubled for you, you probably bought earlier than a year ago, so check your cost basis on each. The real gap is that ETH has lagged BTC by about 18% over the year. On my 0–100 risk score (lower means cheaper against its own history), ETH is at 23 and BTC at 41, but the score has been a weaker guide for ETH than for BTC, so I wouldn't read that as ETH being the better pick.

BarnacleOwn604

I don’t care much about short term price (1-3 years) I care that I continue to make an effort to stack for the future and my holdings go up month to month, BTC is a long term game.

cedarrapidsiaus

If you go through KYC with it buying and selling it they can. Or if an undercover pays them or gets paid by them they might have something. But by straight peer to peer on Monero they aren’t going to have anything to find Between 2 people with offline wallets. Through seeing multiple documentaries and talking to the feds in my country they cant even track people with BTC that know how to cover there tracks. Let alone XMR.

renba7

Your math on home mortgage rates doesn’t pass muster as it ignores appreciation and the nuance of down payments. A 7% mortgage might be a fine investment. Depends on myriad other things. But that’s housing funded by one’s own capital and totally irrelevant, here. Using student loans to buy BTC is such a profoundly bad decision that the interest rate becomes irrelevant.

RareVibeDelight

YES!! Everyday is the right time to buy more BTC 🧡🚀

Ok-Calligrapher8361

I heat my house int he winter time with BTC miners s21++ and a S19Pro all ran off solar

TheVeloRebel

Its not FUD just prepoaration for the narative of the 'Crypto Agility' era. Algo, sui, Nervos CKB, NEAR etc they are all getting to the point of looking like they will be less likely to fall. I do actulaly agree that the threat of BTC will propel the Quantum talk more aggressively because obviously it controls the market All these chains suddenly posting “we’re going PQ!!!” because the narrative flipped and they don’t wanna look slow, all the capable ones jumping too. It’s not pure FUD, it’s just the market finally admitting the risk is real enough that governments and big companies are actually prepping. You can’t keep calling it FUD forever when that happens. But most of them are still gonna eat shit on the migration. Hard forks, coordination problems, big signatures, slower everything, users have to move coins, drama. SPHINCS+ adopted chains will be big, those that already have on testnet or mainet . Chains will start bleeding from bad migrations, the ones that can switch clean get the flow. PQ shit bag coins should be positioned for this, BTC will get political soon I should imagine

Tobias_CBC

BTC dominance and TOTAL3 are useful, but they can blur new stablecoin supply and newly listed tokens into “rotation.” I’d pair them with breadth—the share of established alts outperforming BTC—and spot volume, then define the weekly level that would invalidate the view before assuming capital rotates like clockwork.

TheVeloRebel

It's time to start changing the groundwork and narrative to maikng projects ahve crypto agility. Some new projects are born with crypto agility, BTC will have to follow suit because its the most important to market integroty for now. Its a multi year task and consensus will, get poltiical. Most projects that are smaller will need to find way to already change to PQC becaus etheyre insignificant to BTC. Commnunites are key and not having to hardfork. A lot of projects will get nervos about this narrative in the next decade

almo2001

BTC is a cryptocurrency.

velospeed

You can borrow against your BTC. Can you borrow against your ETF shares?

Verum_Seeker

Jesus, is it that difficult to just buy spot when the Fear and Greed Index is at extreme fear, BTC just hit a bottom zone, no matter if it's not the absolute bottom, and then chill until you get some good gains and/or hold until it hits a new ATH?"

Optimistic-Pie123

I mean considering the low interest, I think the risk is pretty low. Just hope I don’t time it poorly or that BTC goes into prolonged consolidation or downtrend. But I firmly believe in BTC long term.

LearnBitcoinCom

Good question. Coinbase doesn’t show up among the confident matches in the top 20. There’s one low-confidence match, an address labeled “Deribit (Coinbase Prime Custody, unconfirmed)” holding about 39,580 BTC, and we left it off because the label isn’t confirmed. That doesn’t mean Coinbase has no exposed coins, just that none of the very largest exposed addresses could be tied to them with confidence. Here’s the full list, with every address, balance, label confidence, and the block that revealed each key: [https://chainquery.com/lists/quantum-at-risk](https://chainquery.com/lists/quantum-at-risk)

ItemNo7373

Curious cause I DCA BTC bi-weekly too, what macro factors are you monitoring to choose the right day? I mean which day you choose won't matter at all on the long run, why the hassle ?

FeeParking4506

If I apply the same logic to holding cash position, how do you know Fidelity has the cash they claim to have on their books? It is the same audit process that ensures what they are stating in their 10-K filings is correct. Why is BTC any different?

H8ckt1v1st

I am completely on this page, there are clearly times to buy when you get more SATs for $1 USD than others, but chasing dips and trying to time them to align with your resources is draining. I remember someone telling me years ago that if you cannot handle BTC having $10K swings in a 24 hour period, trading BTC is pointless. I agree. I park USD and rely on the SATs / USD price. As of this writing 1,221 SATs to $1 USD. So I setup a buy of say 1300 SATs and forget about it, ANY tools that show historical data are useful if you know how to read them. Most of BTC movement is the whales and long term hodlrs. All that being said, more power to you and share your work as it progresses and I will be happy to zap you some SATs.

jasonslpt

Fear readings are late, positioning is earlier. BTC near 82K has longs stacked at 81.96K (about $179M) and 80.4K (about $428M), shorts thin at 82.0K and heavy near 84.1K. I lean lower into 80.4K before fear turns into a real bottom. Wrong if BTC holds above 82.0K and runs at 84.1K. Fearful at 40x is just regular fear with extra steps. Not advice.

jasonslpt

Agree on the distinction. What I watch is whether the long pools below actually clear and price holds without fresh leverage piling back in. There's still about $428M of longs near 80.4K untouched, so the flush isn't finished in my book. Spot demand shows when price holds after that pocket gets tagged and funding stays flat. Wrong if BTC holds above 82.0K first. The 50x crowd calling this the bottom is volunteering as the next batch. Not advice.

jasonslpt

Dip buying into leverage is the tricky part. BTC near 82K still has about $428M of longs parked around 80.4K that haven't been flushed, plus a $179M pocket right at price. I'd wait for 80.4K to get tagged before calling it a better entry. Wrong if BTC holds above 82.0K and pushes toward the 84.1K short stack. The 25x dip buyers are basically prepaying the next flush. Not advice.

Perfect-Swimmer-4311

I think there is a niche for it, just not the same audience as BTC-backed loans. Imagine someone who has a big gold allocation but needs liquidity for a few months. Selling a chunk might be inconvenient, and depending on where they live it could have tax consequences. Borrowing lets them keep the position. But then I'd want to know the total cost, not just the interest rate. There are fees, margin-call rules, custody arrangements, and the risks of the token issuer itself. Arch Lending now accepts both PAXG and XAUT as collateral, which makes it a useful real-world example to compare. I'd be interested to see how many people actually use these loans instead of simply selling gold. On paper it makes sense for some situations, but I doubt it's a mainstream product yet.

Financial-Milk-7488

Wrong subreddit unfortunately. Most BTC people believe in long-term vision of BTC and DCA. Not day trading. Not saying it’s impossible to make money off day trading but if you look at the statistics, it is slim to none who actually are consistently long-term profitable.

Downtown_Mode7405

Never invest what you can’t lose. You could also diversify. Half in a boring ETF. The other in BTC.

Expo24816

I've understood BTC for many years and you still don't even know the basics. There are fundamentals, it just shows your wilful ignorance. You're obviously one of those people that just can't accept being wrong because it will hurt your ego too much. A sign of low IQ is sticking to a false preconceived belief even when evidence presents otherwise, and there's plenty of evidence showing Bitcoins properties and it's Fundamentals. A 3x definitely isn't the absolute cap in 5 years even though yes that is likely, but even a 3x still outpaces the S&P 500. I think there are better AI plays and even a better crypto play in that time frame myself but acting like BTC is bad is nonsense. There are plenty of scenarios that can cause BTC to skyrocket and even if it doesn't BTC is a safe and great long term store of value. I'd say good luck but you already know it all so I guess you don't need it :)

Tobias_CBC

The chart price is often a reference price, while the amount you actually receive is set by the buy/sell quote, spread and any fees. Compare both trade confirmations line by line—BTC quantity, execution price and fees—because that will show whether the 5% market move was outweighed by costs on both legs.

Tobias_CBC

Because your target is in BTC while contributions are in pounds, the date depends on the future BTC/GBP path: rising prices buy fewer sats, while falling prices buy more. Model a few price paths and review every six months instead of relying on one date. Are you aiming for a deadline or steady accumulation?

Juus

100% in a passive global stock fond. If you insist on crypto, then allocate 5% of your portfolio in BTC.

Optimistic-Pie123

Insightful comment. Thanks. That’s what I’m worried about. I think BTC will hit the 400-700k range within 10 years but, I could time this whole trade very poorly. I’ll end up wrecked if BTC goes into a multi year bear market or prolonged consolidation. Maybe I should think more before I proceed, and then there’s the psychological aspect too. Even if it becomes successful, at what costs? The distress maybe isn’t worth it.

mistfern6

look into Arvexo if you want longer terms. Binance flexible is fine for short stuff but if youre holding BTC long term you probably want something with actual loan structure not just a rolling credit line

Feriman22

I wouldn't try to guess how long it lasts. I built a rule-based BTC regime tracker for exactly this, and the current status is public here: https://ferimanedge.com/regime⁠ I'd rather wait for the regime to actually change than try to call the bottom.

Tobias_CBC

The account long/short ratio can look crowded without showing where the capital is, because each account counts once regardless of position size. I’d read it alongside funding, open interest and spot volume; flat or negative BTC funding suggests the headcount skew alone is weak evidence of a squeeze.

Tobias_CBC

Doing less often works because a written plan separates information from decisions. If a headline does not change the investment case, risk limit or planned review point, it does not need a trade. What are the few conditions that would actually make you change your BTC position?

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BoringPrinciple2542

If you NEED a 2 year max timeline then I’d probably say Bitcoin. ETH is solid but has stayed fairly flat all things considered. I fully believe BTC will crash in the future but I doubt the risk is there in the 1-2 year time frame… more like next 10-20. If the 2 year timeline isn’t solid, there are tons of top 20-40 say altcoins which could have far better potential based on recovery to levels right before the Trump inauguration boom/bust. That’s where I’m putting most of my cards. Take AVAX for example as it is one I pay a lot of attention to. Right around election it was hitting around $60-80 which is probably unrealistic outside of a massive bullrun but prior to it was averaging around $25-35 for much of its history (ignoring the Covid era spike when NFTs drive ETH traffic to alternative ERC-20 chains). Today it’s trading around $10… I see a return to $20 being more likely than BTC doubling so a greater change in value is possible; HOWEVER, that entails greater risk and a less predictable timeline. If you want easy set & forget potential in the short term then I’d probably buy a BTC drop and sell the next time it spikes. For the duration of your holding period just buy the dips and sell the tops while keeping earnings in cash (maybe a stablecoin you can stake for small interest rates).

BeemanIT_1

Playing with leverage is gambling. I got liquidated with 1 BTC back 6 years ago and learned my lesson. Never play with leverage only buy and hold, DCA.

penty

I had thought about mining but didn't want to "burn up my expensive gaming PC" for pennies by getting 50 BTC every few days... D'oh. Eventually ran across the SL kiosk and that felt the safest way to buy, not catting cash to meet someone in person, no transfering $ to weird places.

penty

Exactly what I did ... USD to Linden the Linden to BTC at a random Virwox.com kiosk in SL. I did a little at a time in case it was a scam. I had forgotten the name of the company to thanks for that?

poor_doc_pure

BTC and Ethereum only.

Responsible-Being-36

Im doubtful BTC replaces gold completely as the store of wealth asset. Gold also had cultural value it was physical in your hands and shiny and humans love shiny things. BTC has its own problems to (quantum, whether blockchain actually gets ingrained into economics etc) But we will have an abundance of gold over the coming century compared to today so as store of value it will lose its appeal. The cost will still have a solid baseline above the cost to space mine but not as high as it would be if we were limited to the ever depleting earth Gold. Simple supply and demand will drive gold downwards.

Coleyx123

I hope not, but I feel the same way sometimes. Getting notifications that my holdings are moving is one thing, but now I get more about "predictions" and who's going to win the big game, or when will the government reveal alien contact. Wtf is going on? BTC shits the bed and people are making stacks from it. I stepped away right before COVID to get clean and get my life together, came back slowly in late '22, and started investigating again 6 months later after getting caught up. I left a community of a group of like-minded people and returned to a casino, which is now being taken over by Wall Street. We'll never see big gains again, even if BTC hits $1M, so I guess they've got to keep people's attention somehow.

Cryptomuscom

Splitting between BTC and ETH is safer

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Post is by: ImZainhaider and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1x6nkce/why_i_completely_stop_trading_between_cpi_and/ After getting chopped up across 7 to 8 years of trading crypto, I finally learned to stop treating CPI and FOMC like normal trading days. Standard technical indicators simply break down here. Here is the exact pattern I keep seeing and how I actually handle it: **7 to 10 days before CPI:** The broader market almost always bleeds as people de-risk. But pay attention to the coins that refuse to dump. If a token is quietly holding support and printing higher lows on the 4H/Daily while BTC is bleeding, that is your coiled spring. **CPI Release Day:** The headline number barely matters because the underlying trend dictates the real reaction. You almost always get a nasty 30-minute fakeout to hunt leverage. Most coins just chop or bleed with the broader market. However, the rare few that were already refusing to drop beforehand can see explosive relief runs, while the rest of the market does nothing. **The Gap Between CPI and FOMC (The No-Trade Zone):** This is where retail gives back all their gains. The market usually chops, bleeds, and fakes out in both directions. RSI, MACD, and clean support lines will fail you over and over. It is pure institutional manipulation. **The Pre-FOMC Pump:** The only real exception is if the market starts aggressively front-running and pumping before the FOMC rate decision drops. When that happens, the actual announcement usually acts like gasoline and sends it flying even harder. **My rule now is simple:** I sit on my hands between CPI and FOMC. Cash is an active position. Once FOMC clears and the macro fog lifts, market structure goes back to normal and chart patterns actually start respecting support and resistance again. Do not let the interim chop wreck the capital you need for the real moves. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

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Full-Atmosphere-4818

It was literal terror as entire companies in the sphere were going under taking all the investor money with them and the price dropped 80% in 12 months. BTC was trading at 50% of its mining cost by year end! This 7% pullback and even the entire 50% peak to bottom bear scarcely caused me fear at all, just mild annoyance.

ilovesaintpaul

Guys commenting...read OP's history. Several times they mention that BTC is going to zero. With the recent drawdown, how can they say this? I'm really skeptical of OP's claims. Karma farmer.

Optimistic-Pie123

Interesting. Didn't know that but it makes sense. That's probably why Americans complain about their student loans. If Americans could get their student loans written off, maybe there wouldn't be such a vocal grievance regarding college tuition and student loans? But that probably wouldn't help because you can only declare bankruptcy in extreme cases I suppose? Yeah, maybe I'll go 50% global index funds and 50% BTC. I'll see. Anyway, I aprpeciate your insights.

SeriousGains

Because I’m not a maximalist, even if BTC is still my largest holding.

NoStill2196

If everyone did spot trading instead of leveraging BTC would be at $200k

OscarOfAtlantis

My buddy didn’t DCA into BTC. He just took loan money and invested it into CDs. Safe but guaranteed profit. In our country, one cannot declare bankruptcy to get rid of student loans. So safer is better. Can you do that in your country? If it all goes to shit, can you declare banter to get rid of the student loans? This would make the BTC angle more attractive.

loc710

Crypto is a scam. Just buy BTC

Optimistic-Pie123

That's a rational approach. I mean, you're right. Obviously, anything could happen, but I feel like the quantum computer threat has been a "threat" for years and Bitcoin is still thriving. Not saying that just because it hasn't happened yet, that it won't happen, but I firmly believe that BTC is going to 1M by late 2030s or early 2040s but anything could happen in that time. My friend did the same with index fund, but the ROI is obviously much lower than if you do the same thing with BTC, but the risk is also significantly lower. But I have enough faith in BTC to be able to sleep at night during that period and the interest is so low. How did your buddy only make 5% of the loan? Should be significantly more if he DCA into BTC with the loan. I'm expecting to pay off the loan and end up with more money than the actual loan.

carlosriven

I have been in BTC for 13 years. You dont sell, you wait. It is a long run. My first BTC was around 100 dollars, I have never sold anything.

djscoox

Gold isn't going to near zero because many people wills till prefer gold as a store of value. It's dense, it's pretty, it's fungible and it's scarce. People instinctively gravitate towards gold. Gold doesn't require any complex mathematics, software or electrical power: you hold it in your hand—done, it's yours. Asteroid mining in the next 100 years is probably not something we should worry about; besides, it's unlikely that asteroid mining will be a thing, ever, because the logistics don't make sense. BTC won't replace gold. At best it will compete with gold for market cap and a 50% share of the SoV space is a very bullish forecast.

Optimistic-Pie123

I agree. It's not the loan itself. My buddy invested his student loan into index funds and some individual blue chip stocks and it went well for him. He hasn't paid back the loan but he can easily do it. The risk isn't the loan but the timing like you pointed out. I mean, imagine if he'd done that before a long bear market. It slows down and derails the thesis from hitting the target. My advantage is that I won't get a lump sum. The payouts are like 1300 euros a month, and I'll be able to DCA between 2027-2029, but idk. Bitcoin could consolidate, a recession could happen, Bitcoin could enter a multi year bear market. I'm not worried that BTC won't hit my targets. I'm quite sure that BTC will hit 300k, 400k, and 600k within 10 years, but my timing could be disasterous and that's whats holding me back

ricky74vette

I borrowed 20k against my BTC. I was hoping it would rise up and I could pay it back but BTC dropped into the 60s and Coinbase liquidated almost all of it to recupe their money. C'est la vie

Romanizer

I don't know how it's in the UK, but usually victims ought to be reimbursed in legal tender by the perpetrator. BTC is rather seen as a stolen good or good bought with stolen money and therefore seized.

Optimistic-Pie123

Thank you. Your comment is very nuanced and insightful. Not just straight up good-or-bad, black-and-white perspective. Unfortunately, I don't get a lump sum that I can just invest and let it ride until mid 2030s and then cash out and pay back the loan. I'll get like 1300 Euros each month for a couple of years. Then there's also the psychological aspect. I think BTC will trade between 300k and 500k in the early 2030s but what happens if I just time everything poorly. Bitcoin could go in a multi year consolidation and a recession could be on the way. I'm not worried if BTC will hit my targets. I'm just worried when and if my timing will be disadvantageous. It is completelty legal to use the student loan for investments and whatever you want as long as it's legal in the general context. Many people in my country who live with their parents while studying actually take out the loan even if they don't need to and just put it in an idnex fund and then use it as a downpayment on a house after graduation. It's entirely legal. What do you think?

Optimistic-Pie123

But the interest is low. You need to take the other things into account. It's not like I'm getting a mortgage to buy BTC. It's a student loan with really low interest. But I understand that people still think it's irrational. Even if it makes sense economically, it could also put a toll on my mental health due to the stress. But I think the risk is pretty low. The interest is even lower than the interest in a savings account.

Optimistic-Pie123

Ja, haha. Funderar på att ta CSN lånet för att investera i BTC

RetiredAvocado

It's not free in terms of mental cycles to do everything right with hardware wallets and backups but certainly much cheaper. FBTC charges a 0.25% so on a ~12.4 BTC ($1M) holding you're charged $2500 every year rather than $250 hardware wallet every 3 or 4 years. I recommend and do buy a newer wallet from time to time, same as upgrading a phone from time to time.

Optimistic-Pie123

Will I not be able to enjoy college while I'm in this risky trade? Yeah, I mean could lead to some insomnia and chronic anxiety which prevents me from enjoying my college life because I just stare at charts. But it's Bitcoin, I'd be worried if it was altcoins or individual stocks. But I've got some faith in BTC and index funds. I see them as strong vehicles that will pull through. Time is on my side. But I appreciate the honesty. I didn't come here to just confirm my bias. I want honesty. Every opinion is welcomed. I'm genuinely looking for what's the most rational and beneficial decision.

Optimistic-Pie123

Yeah. I'm lucky to live in a country that offers free higher education, and I'm living with my parents while studying so I don't have to worry about rent and other expenditues. And also the interest on student loans are very low. It's at the highest rate right now in years and it's currently around 2%. I absolutely think BTC will outperform that and that my thesis will hold sufficently for me to make a good profit. I'm just worried that I'll get unlucky and that Bitcoin goes into a long consolidation but again, I've got time on my side. What do you think?

Ok_Knowledge_4977

When this news came out? Also notice that even with such news, the price keeps plummeting. So this should tell you BTC don’t give a f\*\*\*!!!

Optimistic-Pie123

Yeah. I'm not pressed for time. I could let it sit until 2040 if I wanted to but I'd still want to pay it back within 10 years because I don't want the debt to grow if Bitcoin goes into a long period of consolidation. But I think it's quite safe. Not safe like an index fund but I think it's worth the risk. I'm only going to buy BTC. Absolutely no shitcoins which imo is every coin besides BTC

Affolektric

My Alts are down by 90% - BTC doesn‘t fall that much. And just no - why would BTC have to be at 110k? It could be at 40k and still reach 200k next cycle

Optimistic-Pie123

I honestly think we'll never see 30k BTC again. Maybe 50k.

OnbelyVerse

Your last point is probably one of the best contributions to this thread. We totally agree with you. In our case, we receive BTC as payment for our services, so the real challenge isn't when to buy, but how much to hold and when to take profits. At the end of the day, there's little point in accumulating Bitcoin if you're forced to sell at the worst possible time just to keep the business running. Great point!