BTC

SoverignOne

IF QC can hack the cryptography before its upgraded, it will be a futile attack because once that happens BTC loses its trust and worth and goes to zero so stealing BTC will leave one with nothing. At that point, it’s just an attack to be an attack, but tin the end, the attacker gains nothing.

Successful-Mud-2000

Easiest way: ignore the fee labels and measure the end result Before buying, write down the BTC price on a site like CoinGecko. Divide what you are spending by that price, thats how much BTC you would get with zero costs. Then compare with what actually lands in your wallet after the withdrawal. The difference is your real total cost Where it usually leaks: Deposit. Card payments often cost 2-4%, bank transfers are usually much cheaper or free Spread. The simple "buy" button usually gives you a worse price than the market. Most exchanges have an advanced or pro trading screen with lower costs, worth learning Trading fee. Usually small, often under 0.5% on the advanced screen Withdrawal fee. Usually a flat amount in BTC, not a %. On 50 dollars it can be a big chunk, on 500 its nothing. Thats why a lot of people buy small amounts regularly but only withdraw once in a while If the total is over 2-3% on a small buy, there is probably a cheaper way to do it on the same exchange

Successful-Mud-2000

Do both at the same time, but with a tiny amount Buy like 20 bucks on a reputable exchange, then set up a free mobile or desktop wallet and send it there. Then send a part back. That one small round trip teaches you more than hours of reading, and if you mess something up it only costs you 20 Things I wish I understood earlier: On an exchange you dont really own the coins, you own a promise. Fine for buying, not great for holding a lot long term The seed phrase IS the wallet. The app is just a window. Lose the phone and keep the seed, you are fine. Lose the seed or let someone see it, the coins are gone Networks matter. When you withdraw, the exchange may offer different networks. For BTC send on the Bitcoin network to a Bitcoin address, otherwise funds can get stuck or lost Fees change a lot depending on how busy the network is. Sending tiny amounts often can cost more than it should, so later on its better to withdraw in bigger, less frequent chunks Once you are comfortable and the amount grows, then think about a hardware wallet

ErasmitoWathelet

Sending BTC from a hardware wallet doesn't expose your recovery phrase or private keys to the person receiving it. The device signs the transaction without handing over the private key. What you do need to watch is the address and amount shown on the actual hardware wallet screen, rather than trusting whatever your computer displays. I'd also make a small test transaction if it's your first time sending to that person. A compromised computer is a real concern, but simply making an outgoing payment isn't the same thing as compromising your wallet.

Thaddaeus_Undergrade

This is a good example of why seeing BTC on a company's balance sheet isn't the same thing as knowing it has unrestricted control over those coins. If the assets are held through an exchange or another custodian, the custody agreement and actual withdrawal rights matter enormously. I'd want to know whether the company had previously verified withdrawals and how the holdings were reconciled. Doesn't automatically prove fraud, but it's a pretty serious distinction for shareholders.

read_more_comments

They did a transaction completely on the exchange then found they couldn't withdraw... Really nothing to do with BTC.

PhobozZz1

Are you planning an accident on this boat where you "lose" 1,000 BTC?

DarrelXero

Square (US except NY) lets merchants accept Bitcoin via Lightning. At checkout select Bitcoin, scan the QR or tap NFC with a Lightning wallet. Payment settles in seconds from your wallet with no manual sale. Merchants receive BTC or auto-converted USD. 0% fees through 2026 then 1%. $600 transaction limit. Cash App map shows participating sellers. Not enabled everywhere. US BTC spending is usually taxable.

Icy_Dragonfruit__

Start small, learn the basics, and don’t rush and treat BTC as a high-risk addition and only invest what you can afford to lose.

cryptokeyhole

The options market mostly agrees. BTC's 1-week at-the-money implied vol is about 37%, barely a point above the 1-month at 36%, so there's very little Fed premium priced in. That works out to roughly 5% either way over the next seven days, about $76.5k to $84.7k, decision included.

MoparMiningLLC

I would say no OP said it was a fake 4 hours ago besides it does not even look like a 1000 BTC cas bar.

anon1999666

Idk why you’re being downvoted. Everyone I know in my circle knows about BTC. My hippy uncles in Appalachia know about BTC. It became mainstream in 2021. Most of the adults itw have already decided if they want to invest in it or not.

AP_lookingahead

I hate that when I see this post I always look up the price of BTC hoping to see a dip below my cost average so I can buy and it’s always fake. Everytime.

FairlyResolute

BTC just doing its usual sideways dance while alts bleed slowly, feels like deja vu from every cycle

BrendanRodgersss

I'd compare how much BTC actually ends up in your wallet for the same £100 or £500 purchase rather than looking at advertised trading fees alone. Include the GBP deposit cost, exchange-rate spread, trading fee and withdrawal fee. Sometimes the cheaper-looking exchange ends up costing more once you move the Bitcoin into self-custody, especially with smaller recurring purchases.

NuklearniEnergie

Imagine peeling the sticker off revealing the key to a bitcoin wallet containing 1k BTC

jguest1105

This is the part of BTC-backed loans that almost never gets shown, and the numbers are sobering. At a 50% starting LTV, 41 out of 100 loans ended in liquidation. Even at 20%, which most people would call conservative, 4 out of 100 still got liquidated. There was no starting point in your test that survived every start date. The detail that stood out most to me is the timing. More than half the margin calls landed at night or on a weekend. Bitcoin does not wait for business hours, and a borrower who cannot top up fast in a crash does not really have 48 hours in any practical sense. It also matters that raising the liquidation threshold or adding a day to top up changed almost nothing, while a lower starting LTV and a shorter term actually helped. The interest rate is the number lenders advertise. The liquidation terms are the number that decides whether you keep your coins.

Avanchnzel

Just keep in mind that while these services might advertise themselves as having "0% fees", they will usually adjust the BTC exchange rate, which is how they make their money. If you use a CEX like e.g. Kraken, you usually only pay a fixed fee of 0.4% (or 0.25% as a market maker) plus a fixed 1$ or 1€ for the withdrawal to a bank account. In comparison, the effective cost of using Bitrefill would be closer to abou 2-4%. You're basically paying a convenience tax. But if convenience is your priority, then it might be worth it.

ProofPomegranate7331

Everyone hates coinbase, but they have a debit card that you can set to spend BTC or any other asset you have on the platform every time you swipe it.

ShipMysterious7602

Open an account with Xapo Bank. You can hold BTC with them and can choose to pay either in the BTC you hold or USD. Also one of the cheapest places to buy Bitcoin in regards to spread and commission. They also have a BTC fund you can invest in or loans against your BTC up to $1m I think. Check them out, if interest drop me a dm and I can send you a link if you want, gives you half your annual membership fee back in your pocket.

Own_Construction2323

Crypto payment apps are probably the easiest option right now. Some let you spend from a connected wallet anywhere Visa is accepted, without manually selling your BTC first. There's still conversion happening behind the scenes, though.

read_more_comments

There is actually a better way to do it - you buy BTC etf in your 401k and do a roth conversion, or just buy it directly in your roth. Returns are tax free. If you want to wait till you retire to cash out, you can still play the cycles by buying and selling in the account. The gains this way dwarf even holding a year for LTCGs.

engulfed11

I offer 999BTC. Putting you rip-off merchants to sleep.

Interesting_Loss_907

All true about chain analysis. Fair point. But the addresses are still anonymous, & also remains true you don’t know with certainty which transfers are *payments* to vendors, or payments to other users, or which are simply transfers between wallets. Even if you were to identify a receiving address as probably belonging to some sort of commercial entity or store, if you were trying to track BTC that you originally paid an employee months earlier, and you saw that after a couple of other transfers some of it went to an address that might be a store, would that really matter? He wouldn’t even know if it was your employee that made a payment to a commercial entity because one of the prior transfers could’ve been him sending it to another user who then spent it on goods. My point is just that detailed information or facts about who exactly is receiving transfers is not something you get from chain analysis.

KookyspookyYami21

I think the first question is whether you're looking for a short-term trade or a long-term investment. Bitcoin can swing much more sharply than broad stock indexes, so I'd decide on your time horizon and how much downside you can tolerate before buying anything. If you're new to BTC, understanding custody and avoiding phishing is probably just as important as trying to time the market.

-Squidster-

Up to you, honestly it looked better unpeeled so maybe leave it that way. Chances are if they’re selling fakes, they aren’t taking the time to load them with BTC 😅 Where did you get it from, eBay?

Romanizer

You’re identifying real trade-offs, but those don’t establish that the underlying capabilities are redundant. **Self-custody exchanges institutional protection for direct control.** Losing keys is a real risk. So is depending on an intermediary’s permission. Recoverable bank accounts are useful; the option to hold an asset outside that relationship is useful too. Insurance within the banking system doesn’t replicate independence from it. **Scarcity needs demand.** The argument is that Bitcoin’s combination of scarcity, verifiability and permissionless transfer creates reasons for demand. Comparing it with something merely rare doesn’t address those capabilities. Forking its code practically deletes its liquidity, acceptance, infrastructure and network effects. **The cap depends on consensus, but software enforces the rules each node accepts.** SegWit and Taproot didn’t make existing nodes accept excess issuance. A supply increase would require changing that validation rule; pointing to previous upgrades doesn’t remove this distinction. **Faster payments don’t necessarily provide the same service.** An exchange can block conversion without gaining control over self-custodied BTC. Bitcoin permits direct settlement without that exchange. Major fiat-backed stablecoins retain issuer controls. Tether explicitly reserves freezing powers. Fees and throughput remain genuine limitations. **Gold is worth discussing:** Gold is hardly a benchmark of stable short-term purchasing power: it fell 8.5% in September alone, and the World Gold Council describes its volatility this year as unusually elevated. That doesn’t establish Bitcoin as safer; it shows that substantial volatility can coexist with an established monetary role. Bitcoin adds capabilities physical gold lacks: direct remote settlement, precise digital divisibility and independently verifiable issuance without transporting, storing or assaying metal. Gold’s physical uses are an advantage, but they don’t guarantee its market price. Both assets depend on continued demand; the relevant question is whether their properties give people reasons to hold them. And there is barely any reason to hold gold when Bitcoin exists.

Able-Mycologist-461

I came from trading too and lost everything in 2020. What fixed it wasn't a better trade, it was buying a fixed amount on a schedule: $300 BTC every Friday, $300 VOO every Tuesday. If you start, would you buy once or a little every week?

RetiredAvocado

There's some [grumbling](https://natinfosec.substack.com/p/adam-backs-blockstream-borrows-billions). The fact they cannot fund 605 BTC hole in Liquid is somewhat of an evidence. LBTC is unrelated to the wallet but puts longevity in question. So the "community" of 18 Jade owners would have to rally together and maintain it without them, true.

Sure_Value2003

Yep, funding rates generally can be more expensive and managing your own 2x leverage position (buying with BTC collateral debt is 2x technically) in a decentralized way is more flexible. Both ways are okay IF there is a strategy, a plan.

-Squidster-

Unfortunately a [fake](https://www.reddit.com/r/cryptocollectibles/s/87reeclyYY) but still cool. Casascius only made 16 of the [1000 BTC bars](https://ibb.co/8n2sp0Zr). You can find more info about them and other physical bitcoin collectibles over on r/CryptoCollectibles

lus1d

I’ll add my counterpoint. This particular post I find quite valuable, because I have advised people to consider borrowing against BTC rather than selling if they get an RL cash flow crisis eg medical bills.

lus1d

Not sure of the advantage of borrowing to buy more BTC over taking a leveraged long position (spot or perp) on a centralised exchange….? Maybe rates….

According-Ad-2594

Coinbase advanced or kraken pro. I've been using the pro interface on kraken for many many years and never had any trouble at all. The pro bit is just a different interface with much lower fees. The BTC withdrawal cost and trading fees are pretty good.

greg0rie

Get used to it. BTC is not what it was intended to be anymore. You have already see tbe highest its ever going to go.

Lucky-Interview-7689

\> Self-custodied BTC is no government's liability and no bank's promise to pay. Holding it requires no custodian. Cuts both ways. With no issuer, nobody owes you anything, so its value rests entirely on other people continuing to want it. "No custodian" also means no recourse: lose the keys or get scammed and the coins are gone. Most people hold it through exchanges or ETFs anyway, which are custodians, and you still buy, sell and pay tax through the regulated system. I can go to my bank and recover my lost password. I can get refunded for funds lost in a bank collapse from the FDIC. \> No government, developer or miner can unilaterally make existing nodes accept extra supply. Correct for the protocol, but the cap is enforced by social consensus, not cryptography. The rules have been changed before (SegWit, Taproot). A cap change is very unlikely, but it's a coordination question, not a law of nature. And one token being scarce doesn't limit substitutes, since anyone can fork it or launch another coin. Scarcity without demand is worth nothing; plenty of rare things are worthless. My favorite example is my own dog's shit. Maybe it's a fertilizer, and maybe not a good one, but at least it does have utility. \> It allows direct, cross-border transfers without a bank or payment company authorizing them. There is no central administrator with an account-freezing button. The protocol has no freeze button. The on ramps and offramps do. And there you see the redundancy of crypto. Base-layer throughput is a few transactions per second for Bitcoin, fees fluctuate, and transfers are irreversible. And a transfer only matters if the other side will accept BTC for something real, which is the adoption problem. For cheap cross-border transfers there are many other options that offer security and are incredibly quicker than Bitcoin. \> You don't need Bitcoin to replace fiat for that option to be useful. This is the best version of your argument. So this is insurance against sovereign nation failure or banking failure, which matters to such a small number of transactions, that anyone entering into these transactions would already be using established channels with insurance. Next to a $1.6T market cap it doesn't add up. That valuation implies much broader demand than this niche explains. And gold already offers non-sovereign scarcity with far less volatility. Market cap is meaningless. What does your tech do? Nothing that isn't already done and better, with more efficiency, and actual safeguards in the traditional financial system. A scheme is a scheme, doesn't matter what the next fool is willing to pay.

Romanizer

Sorry, just read the thread again and saw you were arguing against Bitcoin. In that case, you should be some from the large walls of texts from AmericanScream.. :-) The strongest case for Bitcoin is the combination of properties it offers: 1) Non-sovereign ownership: Self-custodied BTC is no government’s liability and no bank’s promise to pay. Holding it requires no custodian. 2) Verifiable scarcity: Its issuance schedule and 21-million cap are independently auditable under the existing consensus rules. No government, developer or miner can unilaterally make existing nodes accept extra supply. 3) Permissionless settlement: It allows direct, cross-border transfers without a bank or payment company authorizing them. There is no central administrator with an account-freezing button. Together, those properties provide a practical option for holding and transferring value outside sovereign monetary systems and financial intermediaries. You don’t need Bitcoin to replace fiat for that option to be useful. Scarcity alone doesn’t create value; demand for those capabilities is the economic argument. That supports a case for Bitcoin’s usefulness, not any particular valuation or guaranteed return.

0a0d0s0

The lean amount, by a long way. Both on Baseline with the 2-year cap: \- Trigger (lean $2,250): 20% needs 2.9 BTC, 30% 2.9, 40% 3.0, 50% 3.1 \- Lean amount (30% trigger): $2,250 needs 2.9 BTC, $1,500 needs 2.6 The trigger mostly changes how often you go lean. 20% only added one more stretch, while 40% and 50% wait for deeper falls, so you're lean less often and save less. The lean amount changes how much each lean month saves without changing how many there are. Which refines the rule of thumb: the 1% per lean year is for a 25% cut. Dropping to half your budget saves closer to 2% per lean year. So the saving scales with both how long you're lean and how deep the cut is. I wrote the full set of runs up on the blog if you want the table.

read_more_comments

They raised 210 million two years ago, and there is no evidence they are bankrupt. Liquid BTC has nothing to do with their hw wallet. The source is true open source, so even if they go under, you can still use it, make updates, and run your own blind oracle if needed. You can also skip buying their hardware and build your own jade hw wallet if you were paranoid.

UpbeatFix7299

How many decades before running a fusion reactor to make gold approaches the cost of digging it up? Maybe our grandkids will have to worry about it. Ditto with AI and crypto, though I think BTC has zero intrinsic value.

HesitantInvestor0

I find that hard to believe. I also think we should define our terms a bit. Is someone with 5 dollars of BTC on Cash App an owner? I suppose technically, yes. But it's a bit like saying someone is employed if they work an hour a month. I'd be willing to bet there are a few million people who own a relatively significant amount of Bitcoin. Apparently there are around 200 million addresses holding 0.01 BTC or more. That's only about 800 bucks, so a pretty low bar. Also you have to consider that many people own multiple wallets. If you have 0.1 BTC as the bar it drops to around 30 million wallets, which again, are owned by fewer than 30 million people.

Alfador8

Beyond that, *everyone* feels late when they get into bitcoin. There was a post on the old Bitcoin Talk forums about a dude who only had 600 BTC because he was late to the party.  If you don't understand the technology and its significance, you *will* feel late and likely exit too early even if you make a profit.

CipherScarlatti

Thought I saw somewhere here that 81k was the line for BTC for funds holding it. That explains the movement.

TheBot121288

True but those entities are top down and centralized. They will adjust to AI and quantum threats far more quickly than the BTC network will. Also, the authorities will care very little if BTC breaks. If an attacker exploits the banks etc..., they will be hunted down like dogs.

TheBot121288

I'm 50/50 at this point. I have traditional retirement accounts if it doesn't work out. I look at it this way: There are 4 possible scenarios. 1. I hold and it goes up long term. Great. 2. I could sell and it eventually goes to zero. In hindsight that would look like a good decision. 3. I could hold and it goes to zero. That would suck. 4. I could sell now and it goes up long term. Absolute misery. Of those 4 scenarios, there is only ONE that I can eliminate of my own volition, and that's #4. Sure, holding risks scenario #3. But if that happens, at least I would have closure. It's over and I will eventually move on. But if #4 happens and BTC becomes the main store of value, the price will be right there, in my face, every day, reminding me what I missed out on. That would be far worse psychologically than holding to zero. (Especially if I keep contributing to my retirement accounts)

Rosenant

If that happens then it will at the same time crack security on all financial transactions. Everyone’s bank account and stock market accounts and all the bank and brokerage and government bank and sovereign wealth funds. What is available to be stolen in BTC pales in comparison to these other asset classes which are also all now digitalized.

RetiredAvocado

Massive appreciation of BTC, with all things remaining equal.

quantumsparq

If you are asking. No. Do not buy BTC.

Regular_Attempt_7073

The by creating conditions that mske people want to buy BTC. Buy buying it themselves on the down lo or by adding to their strategic reserve of BTC in a sizable way.

LittleTwo9213

Isn’t the point to adopt BTC by people who don’t understand it?

web3_goku

Lol You clearly don’t know nothing about BTC

OssoBlanco86

So take a look at the ETFs that have surfaced around BTC, for example BTCI and STRC for example. If there was no future or worth to profit off of this would not happen. The one thing that crypto has that stocks do not is self custody, I wish I could do that with my stocks or ETFs. It’s still early and you keep seeing the word “ tokenized “ or “ tokenization” being mentioned. Buy some and tuck it away!

cryptokeyhole

Same three lows on our daily closes, and so far the bounce off this one is the weakest of the four. 119 days after each low BTC was up 43% (May 2015), 57% (April 2019) and 76% (March 2023). Today is day 119 from the $58.5k close on 30 June and it's up about 38%. The drop into it was a lot shallower though, 53% off the ATH close against 77-87% the other three times.

Able-Mycologist-461

Same anxiety here. Putting BTC on auto-buy, $300 every Friday, is what helps me most. 64 weeks in, red candles just mean more sats that week. Do you buy on a schedule or by hand when it dips?

KindaNeat420

Doesn’t BTC have a privacy layer that can output new wallet address to receive with, specifically for a situation like this? I’m pretty sure i remember reading about it in a BIP that passed a while back

Neo2029

Came so close to pulling that trigger March 15 of 2014 while talking to Brian Armstrong of COINBASE at his SXSW booth. I knew about it since 2011 while starting a launch incubator but eventually pulled it when I was supposed to. I remember around 2016?17? We talked about GOLDs’ MKt cap being $12T and that BTC, >!which!< was not yet at 1T, would have to 12-13x to match gold. Well look how much closer it got during ATH over a year ago before gold had its late 2025 run. It then seemed realistic. And tell me, If you are under the age of 39? Wouldn’t you prefer BTC to Gold? This will soon tell us how many people will be opting for digital gold over precious metals as we approach the next ATH.

jcheroske

I have standing orders to buy far OTM LEAP puts at good prices. I predict BTC goes to zero due to AI breaking the cryptography within 3 years. So, not exactly bullish.

ubfeo

Stop using BTC for hookers and blow....

inadyttap

538 days untill the next BTC block reward halving. Keep stacking sats! 

tenor_tymir

**IN THE END IT DOESN’T EVEN MATTER** \- Chester Bennington (BTC CEO)

tenor_tymir

Yeah I know that but why do you assume BTC crashes only after a lump sum and not later after a decade-long DCA? Outcome would be the same.

Alexander-305

Nice work, and your "lower LTV beats a later liquidation threshold" finding falls straight out of the math 🧮 The drop a loan can take before liquidation is 1 minus start LTV divided by liquidation LTV (ignoring accrued interest): - 50% start, 80% liquidation: BTC can fall 37.5% - 50% start, 90% liquidation: 44.4%, so only about 7 points more room - 30% start, 80% liquidation: 62.5% - 20% start, 80% liquidation: 75% Moving the threshold buys a few points. Cutting the start LTV buys tens of points. And 75% isn't a safe floor for a 12-month window: 2018 and 2022 both went down roughly 80% from the peak within about a year, which is probably where your 4 in 100 came from. Same logic for the 48h vs 72h top-up: those drawdowns played out over weeks, so an extra day rarely helps. What decides it is whether the borrower has spare cash or coins to post at all. A "top-up reserve" input (say, an extra X% of collateral you can add) would show that better than the deadline does. Two things I'd add on the data side: - Hourly closes miss wicks. Lenders usually mark against an index or live price, so a 20-minute flush can trigger a liquidation that never shows up in your hourly series. Hourly lows would be a more honest test. - Interest accrual pushes LTV up even in a flat market, so a 12-month loan needs a few extra points of headroom on top of the price move. +1 to the post-2020 toggle someone mentioned, as long as it's labeled as fewer independent crashes, not lower risk 👀

Adventurous-Sir444

It's close though. The issue seems to be the inflation cost of pizzas keeps on rising 😭 • Current Bitcoin Value: With Bitcoin trading at approximately $80,628 USD per coin, 2 BTC is worth about $161,256 USD. • Cost of 10,000 Pizzas: At an average cost of $20 USD per large pizza, 10,000 pizzas would cost roughly $200,000 USD (or up to $250,000 USD if priced at $25 each).

cryptokeyhole

Filtering to post-2020 barely changes it. On our daily BTC closes (so no intraday wicks), with the post's terms plus 12% interest and no top-ups, 39 of 100 start days from 2020 on ended in liquidation, against 42 since 2014 (the post found 41). The losses come in blocks, not from the early years: every loan opened between mid-June 2021 and mid-June 2022 got liquidated, and so did every one opened from 11 April to late October 2025. At 20% LTV it's about 2 of 100 since 2020.

CyanDew

honestly tho. if you’re buying BTC $100 at a time each week or so, what difference does a 2-5% move make anyway? wake me up when we 100k+

Head_Work8441

you didnt answer my question, Ok, Let me put it this way, will you have a problem with increased supply of core BTC in any shape or form in future, 21 mil + , Either with tail emissions or overall supply increase?

Head_Work8441

Fair, but will you support BTC supply increased if it's forced like OP return increase?

No_Mud_414

I almost bought 100 euro of BTC in 2011, would have resulted in quite the bag. Wanted to whoop my own ass up for so many times.

ComasArentFun

No it doesn't I mean do I need to say more? It really DOESNT What it MIGHT do is lend processing power to another PoW shitcoin that might get a reward from but it isn't BTC And I guarantee it will be worth 0 before you get any reward

Muted_Advice_5764

Now there is no volume in market. Everyone waiting for the fed news on Wednesday. That could decide the fate of BTC to go more lower or give another push

Landlubber2026

As long as Bitcoin remains Proof of stake, it will essentially have to at least double in value every cycle, because otherwise nobody would mine it. So unless inflation rises to 25% per year(unlikely) then BTC will always outpace inflation.

WorkerPlayful4192

In October 2014 BTC price was between 340 to 390 dollars per coin average. 🥲

Successful-Mud-2000

Fair point, "new money" was the wrong way to say it. Market cap isnt money in, and with thin supply a little buying can reprice everything. I agree with that part A few things I would push back on The multiplier works both ways. The same thin supply that pushes it up also makes it drop hard. In 2022 BTC fell around 65% without anywhere near 1 trillion leaving And holders do sell. Long term holders sold a lot into the run to 126k, and BTC was red in 2025 and is red so far this year. People sell to buy houses, pay taxes, retire, or just because they need the money. Thats not foolish, thats what the money is for Also there is a steady sell side built in: miners get around 450 new BTC a day and most of it gets sold to pay for power. At current prices thats around 13 billion a year that has to be absorbed before price even moves So I think your scenario is possible, I just wouldnt call it self-confirming. Conviction is real until people need liquidity

KateR_H0l1day

What makes you think I don’t have BTC to???? Stop assuming things, check and validate!!

Lost_Ambassador_2351

The black sesame mochi cake at Modu is reason enough to go, paying with sats just makes it better. Cal State location doing 15 purchases a week is more than I expected, students are catching on faster than most. I stopped by Café de Leche once and the owner was super chill about it, no weird looks like you get other places. That BTC Map is useful but yeah some spots listed are gone or stopped taking it, worth a call before driving across town.

IAmMiddleChild

How is it even realistic that Bitcoin will get to the 12 *trillion* dollar market cap necessary for each BTC to be worth 500k USD as some have suggested (or even worse 2x that for them to be worth 1 million each). This seems delusional but I have unfortunately been sucked in. Please tell me that it MAY be possible. Even the top company in the world (Apple?) has around a 5.02 *trillion* dollar market cap only

WorkerPlayful4192

Why? Bigger market cap, bigger price of the satoshies. BTC supply is fixed.

Successful-Mud-2000

Possible, but lets put numbers on it Right now BTC is around 1.6 trillion. Getting to 10 trillion is about 6x. Over 10 years that needs around 20% a year, over 12 years around 17% a year. With roughly 20.5 million coins by then, 10 trillion would be close to 500k per coin For comparison, JPMorgan just published a long term assumption of 10% a year for bitcoin. At that rate you get to something like 4 to 5 trillion in 10-12 years, not 10 Another way to see it: all the gold in the world is worth somewhere around 27 trillion at current prices. 10 trillion would mean bitcoin reaching about a third of gold. Not crazy if the digital gold story keeps winning, but it needs a lot of new money coming in, not just the same holders So yes it can happen, but its closer to the optimistic case than the base case. And given how wrong everyone was 12 years ago, I wouldnt bet my house on any of these numbers in either direction

bobbyv137

Many reputable people 'in this space' have long been (and some even still) call for a $1m BTC by 2030. Coinbase's CEO, Cathy Wood, Adam Back, Samson Mow to name a few. Whether *you* think they are credible isn't the debate; they are projected 'in this space' as people of trust/authority.

WorkerPlayful4192

Here want to ask - it is possible BTC to hit 10 trillion market cap in 10-12 years?

CyanDew

i mean, Bitcoin has survived things that would kill most systems: a 2010 bug that briefly created 184 billion coins (fixed in hours), the Mt. Gox and FTX collapses, China banning half its miners overnight, and four 75%+ crashes, each followed by a new high. BTC been declared dead 400+ times, yet the network has been running almost nonstop since 2009 and has never been hacked. exchanges and companies fail; but Bitcoin keeps producing blocks. thats the resilience i’m referring to.

devCheckingIn

Will STRC ever reach par again? This was supposed to be Strategy's way to raise capital to buy BTC. Instead they're diluting MSTR shares to prop up STRC.

Kenesson-Ongute

The part people often miss is that moving BTC through an exchange doesn't magically make the trail disappear either. An exchange may have records linking your deposits and withdrawals, even if someone looking at the blockchain can't establish that connection directly. Privacy really comes down to who you're trying to hide information from and what information they already have. Keeping salary UTXOs separate from unrelated funds is a good starting point, but it's not the same thing as making the coins anonymous.

Abgg_Reviss

Random daily advice - Something worth checking if you're regularly buying small amounts of BTC is the total cost of actually getting it into your wallet. An exchange advertising zero trading fees might still have a spread, and then there's the withdrawal fee on top. Comparing how many sats arrive in self-custody for the same amount of money tells you a lot more than the advertised trading fee alone. Small differences really start adding up if you're buying every week.

Generationhodl

"Half empty: 1 x BTC has less purchasing power today than 5 years ago, despite the numerous bullish macroeconomic developments since (ETFs, SBR, halving etc.)" But you are comparing 2021 highs from a bullrun peak versus prices now near the bottom of the bear year.  So I think it will look way better in the next 6-12 months. 

neutronjeff

What value does either party get out of paying you in BTC as opposed to your local currency?

Treesh_Jancy

I would go with Debian stable and full disk encryption. Since the laptop is dedicated to coordinating multisig and the private keys stay on hardware devices, the biggest practical wins are keeping the system minimal, verifying software downloads and avoiding unnecessary network exposure. Qubes is great for compartmentalization but sounds like overkill for your setup. I'd also back up the wallet descriptor and test recovery before moving any significant amount of BTC. That's arguably more important than which Linux distro you pick.

cryptokeyhole

Not law anywhere I know of, but several big exchanges publish their reserve addresses voluntarily, so you can check them on-chain. On our node, the lists from Binance, OKX, Bitfinex, Bybit, Deribit, Crypto.com, KuCoin and HTX hold about 1.11M BTC right now, about 655k of it at Binance's addresses. Coinbase and Kraken publish no addresses, and some of the lists are years old, so it's a partial picture. Addresses also only show the assets side, not what the exchange owes its customers.

Treesh_Jancy

Publishing wallet addresses would definitely help with transparency, but it only proves part of the picture. An exchange could show that it controls 10,000 BTC while still owing customers 15,000 BTC. That's why proof of reserves needs to be paired with some way to verify customer liabilities. Even then, borrowed assets and off-chain obligations can complicate things. I would rather see exchanges publish regular independent attestations that cover both sides instead of just showing a bunch of addresses.

KateR_H0l1day

I entered the SATS last week, so I obviously helped them buy those BTC’s.

PolyPunter

Interesting approach. Bringing Polymarket and Kalshi markets together is useful, especially since the same BTC outlook can be spread across a lot of different contracts. One thing I'd be curious to see is how the forecast performs historically. For example, when the model gives an 80% range, does BTC actually finish inside that range roughly 80% of the time? That kind of calibration data could make the forecast much more useful than just looking at individual market odds.

Elmer-Shutara

Since you already have a 401k and traditional investments, one thing worth understanding first is the difference between owning Bitcoin and getting exposure to its price. A spot Bitcoin ETF lets you buy through a regular brokerage, but you can't withdraw the actual BTC to your own wallet. Buying through an exchange gives you that option, although then you need to learn about custody and recovery phrases. Neither approach requires putting a big amount in immediately. I'd spend a little time understanding that difference before deciding where to buy.

Thaddaeus_Undergrade

The part I'd question is treating diminishing returns as a mathematical rule rather than a pattern we've observed so far. There are only a handful of completed cycles, and each happened under pretty different market conditions. Miner revenue is also a combination of block subsidies and transaction fees, so the security argument is more complicated than just looking at how much new BTC gets issued. Interesting thesis, but I don't think the data gets us anywhere close to a reliable 10% ceiling.

bobbyv137

It's all about perspective: Half full: it's up $75k since the covid lows. It did a 8x between Q4 2022 and Q4 2025 Half empty: 1 x BTC has less purchasing power today than 5 years ago, despite the numerous bullish macroeconomic developments since (ETFs, SBR, halving etc.) What's all but certain is the talk of $1m per coin by 2030 isn't happening. It's not going to do a 12x in <4 years.

theusedcomputers

Got it. I fear day trading crypto, especially BTC. The volatility is too much for me to stay calm and make rational decisions. If it works for you, then thats great man. Wishing you the best.

SalePrestigious6605

Does BTC look terrible ? 🧐 it's been great for the past 5+ years.

Feriman22

Not manually. I only act when the system triggers an entry on BTC, ETH or BNB, so I don't really have a "this looks cheap, I'll buy it" list. That's kind of the point - removing that discretion from the process.

Big80sweens

buy low and sell high, or in BTC case, buy low and hold forever.

Murky_Willow2826

BTC dropping under $80k looks scary, but the range today has actually been pretty tight: buyers defending around $79,400-79,600, with $80,500-80,800 acting as resistance where recoveries have stalled this week. The big event is tomorrow, 28 Oct, when the Fed announces - traders are pricing a very high chance of no change. That doesn't tell you what to buy or sell. It just means a lot of the move right now is waiting, not a new trend yet. If you're new, the usual mistake is making a rushed decision on a red day. Not financial advice, just how I'm reading it.

Icy_Dragonfruit__

HODLing is one thing, but make sure you keep an emergency fund outside BTC. 🙌