BTC

Backrus

Why would you trade memes when you can trade SOXL? Crypto as tradable thing died post COVID when stocks got shitcoin-like volatility. And BTC as investment died on November 19, 2024 when IBIT options launched.

fleatedplutmting

An alt can be green in dollars and still be bleeding against BTC. Those BTC pairs are worth watching. Bitcoin going up doesn’t automatically mean money will rotate into everyone’s bags

Fine-Zombie-911

BTC is tied to the value of currency lol, what 

AK_Skier49

If the actual money that people used always increased in price, people would be disincentivized to spend it—which you kinda need in order to have an actual economy. We had deflation in the 1930s and it wasn’t anything to celebrate. That’s why 2% or so annual inflation is a good thing for currency. I have no beef with holding some BTC as part of your portfolio, but an investment is a different thing from a medium of exchange.

3D-elicious

Each time you say this, BTC goes up by one percent... good job Frankie

UrbanGrower187

If this doesn’t help people see why it’s important to include BTC into their portfolios then I donno what more simplified diagram would help visually see why it’s important but what do I know

SomeonesSecondary

Purchasing power of BTC->USD increases

Systemonly69

I think BTC in November would go to $75K and might even try inching closer to 70K. Now we just got to wait and see.

Systemonly69

So is the dip over and are we on our way to 90K BTC ?

xaviemb

If I understand, 1 in 11 coins that people think are "underwater" (around $84k BTC price on last move) were not actually new buys in Nov 2025, but simply internal movement from Coinbase of over half a million coins to updated addresses for their Prime holders (institutions)?

xaviemb

Wow. Alpha here, conventional wisdom about coin age on charts puts this block as "bought" but it wasn't bought it was just moved internal to Coinbase. Means A LOT less BTC is underwater than people thought at the summer low, and now. Looks like about 9% less Bitcoin is actually currently at a loss than most on chain analysts are presenting. Keep it coming!

cryptokeyhole

Our node shows the same thing, and it echoes into the holder-age charts too. Coins over a year old that moved on 22 Nov came to about 353k BTC, the biggest day in our data back to 2009 (next is about 256k on 4 Dec 2018). Then on 26 April, 155 days later, long-term holder supply jumped by about 600k BTC, its biggest one-day rise this year, as those unmoved coins aged back over the 155-day line. So anything split into long and short-term holders gets a drop in November and a jump in April that mostly come from one exchange moving its own coins.

Feriman22

Sure. It's called FerimanEdge: [https://ferimanedge.com](https://ferimanedge.com/) It tracks BTC, ETH and BNB with a fixed rule set, publishes the current market regime, and sends Edge Updates when the entry/exit conditions are actually met. No AI deciding trades, no exchange connection, no copy trading.

molnardavid84

That’s a fair distinction. An address or a transaction alone usually doesn’t tell you with certainty who controls an output or whether a transfer was a purchase. My point is that an observer doesn’t always need certainty to learn something useful. If your employer knows the salary output and sees it spent, amounts, timing or information about a known recipient can provide clues. Those clues become less certain as more possible transfers and owners enter the picture. So I agree: it’s not a complete shopping list. It’s information that may become more revealing when combined with other things the observer already knows. Here’s a simple example. Suppose I pay a business partner in bitcoin, or sell them some bitcoin, and my wallet funds the payment using a single 0.5 BTC coin. My business partner can inspect the transaction and see that I had control of that 0.5 BTC coin when I made the payment. They still don’t know my total balance, and the transaction doesn’t tell them whether I still control the change. But I may have revealed much more about my finances than I intended during an ordinary transaction.

KookyspookyYami21

Measuring your portfolio in BTC is interesting because it shows whether you're actually accumulating purchasing power relative to Bitcoin instead of just watching everything rise or fall in dollars. I'd still keep a fiat view alongside it, though, especially if your expenses and taxes are denominated in fiat. Otherwise it's easy to get a distorted picture of your financial position depending on which unit of account you're using.

No-Wrap3568

Cyphe rock BTC only or X0 both can do. Shamir Based so you won't lose your seephrase ever

Outrageous-River-768

We can trust the government, we can't trust BTC. BTC has no intrinsic value. It's just funny numbers. But the government is intrinsically powerful.

Thaddaeus_Undergrade

One thing that often gets lost in these headlines is that $11 billion in expiring options doesn't mean $11 billion worth of BTC is suddenly getting bought or sold on Friday. The actual price impact depends on how traders and market makers are positioned and whether they need to adjust their hedges. Same with the whole max pain theory. It's interesting to watch, but there's no guarantee the market gravitates toward that price.

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Thaddaeus_Undergrade

Does he get to keep the BTC?

BristlingB

Hope it works out buddy, I've been full port BTC for a long time and just gonna ride the wave until new ATH

BrendanRodgersss

Regularly buying €1,500 of BTC isn't inherently suspicious. What matters more is where the funds come from, where they're going and whether the activity is consistent with the exchange's compliance requirements. I'd keep records of deposits, purchases and withdrawals, especially for tax purposes. I also wouldn't start splitting transactions into smaller amounts just to avoid attention. That can create more problems than it solves. Which country are you in? The specific reporting requirements can vary quite a bit.

CartographerFit2169

I still remember reading that whitepaper in 2014 and thinking it was either genius or complete nonsense, no middle ground. The pizza day thing always gets me, like that guy spent 10k BTC for two pizzas and now it's worth more than most houses. You covered the big tech upgrades well but maybe could mention the block size wars a bit more, that civil war really shaped where we are now. For me the biggest adoption moment was when regular payment apps started letting people buy in, suddenly it wasn't just for tech people anymore.

PawPrints_Luca

Self custody will actually do the work trezor , bitget wallet is worth checking out for that amount of BTC.

substandard2

ETF exists for this very reason. Most people will never deal with the ball ache of having to hold BTC on a cold storage wallet. They will buy an ETF through their Fidelity app or whatever. The ONLY reason I still hold BTC is to take loans out on. Grandma isn't going to mess around with a Trezor, nor are my friends.

Feriman22

I’d be careful extrapolating the next cycle from just three ATHs. The 4-year pattern is interesting, but I’d rather watch whether the market regime actually shifts than assume the next top has to follow the same curve. That’s basically why I ended up building my own rule-based BTC system.

silverroxy4

Borrow against it instead of selling. Figure crypto loans run \~8.91% fixed at 50% LTV, 12mo term. Watch liquidation if BTC drops. Kept my stack doing this.

buebaurbling

Hard to say, since nobody can see the future, but your forecast looks realistic to me. One thing, crypto is becoming more useful as an industry. Tokenization and stablecoins could increase interest in crypto overall, and BTC, as the industry’s main asset, could go even higher (thanks for ETFs too). Still, your estimate seems quite reasonable

Turbulent-Impress301

no its not? You have one idea of an attack, i am referring to another. They are both attacks I was responding to what you said. Quoting you: "AI isn't something you can just point at bitcoin and say, "Break it."" To do this, you could ask AI to find a shortcut in the mining algorithm or in the derivation of private keys. This wouldn't require updating the BTC network at all, but would "break" bitcoin. Or even, we could find that BTC node software has a remote execution vulnerability, like the PHP vuln that happened earlier this month. Again, no update required, but it could potentially knock out every node currently online.

lobhater

There are so many of these posts, how come? Why are minors trying to buy BTC? Silk road type purchases?

powerguy134

There’s a large contingent of people who track the price flow of BTC and buy when it’s high and sell when it’s low 🤷

cryptokeyhole

Yep, about $83.6k. October opened at $83,565 (the 30 Sep close), so it needs Saturday's close above that, roughly 2.9% up from $81.2k now. Over the past year BTC has gained that much in three days only about 18% of the time on our daily closes. October's been green in 10 of the last 13 years, but last year's finished -3.9%, and two red Octobers in a row hasn't happened since 2011-12.

Icy_Dragonfruit__

BTC conviction is strong until the red candles test your patience. Just keep accumulating

rficher

I wonder how someone this dumb got into a BTC sub. 

Alexander-305

Every route still converts somewhere, the real question is who does it and when 🔄 Roughly three options: - Lightning straight to a merchant. This is the only one where you actually pay in bitcoin. The shop's processor may auto-convert to dollars on their side, but you never sell anything yourself. Acceptance is still patchy, so it's more "nice when it's there" than a daily driver. - Crypto debit cards. They sell your BTC the moment you swipe and pay the merchant in fiat over the normal card network. Works almost anywhere, but you're trusting a custodian with whatever you load, and the spread on each swipe can end up wider than the advertised fee. Read the fee schedule, not the landing page. - Gift cards bought with BTC. Handy for big retailers you already use, but you're locking that value into one store. Two things people tend to skip: - Tax. In the US and plenty of other countries, each purchase counts as selling BTC, so a coffee can be a tiny gain or loss you're supposed to track. Lots of small swipes make that annoying fast. - Keeping it separate. Since every option sells the coin anyway, a lot of people keep a small spending stack on a card or Lightning wallet and leave the savings in cold storage, so a lost card or a hacked app never touches the main stack. If you say which country you're in, people can get more specific, availability varies a lot 👀

EmJay6010

No one really knows where this will all go. BTC currently in price discovery phase. But, if BTC's potential is realized, then its value will only keep rising as FIAT debases, and the price of goods in FIAT will get more expensive, and less BTC will buy more as time goes on. The only real moves I'm looking to see is if there is mass adoption by the people who control economy, and they are notregular citizens. They are countries, banks, and large financial entities, and I'll throw in large companies into the latter as they are basically BTC proxies. If these entities mass adopt, then BTC is not going away.

Njhuang86

So what have I said all along? 80K floor confirmed. BTC will keep rising!

cryptokeyhole

This year it went your way round. BTC's lowest close was $58.5k on 30 June, but the 30-day average hash rate on our node didn't bottom until 28 July, four weeks later, at about 896 EH/s. From those lows price is up about 38% and the 30-day hash rate about 15%. Miners' revenue moves with price the same day, while unplugging rigs or racking new ones takes weeks, so hash rate tends to trail price rather than lead it.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

No rate hike is great news for now (probably not such great news for the coming weeks). But what did BTC do with this great news? It barely went above $81K. There was even some big liquidation of shorts yesterday, but there was no momentum behind it and that rally also got eaten away quickly.

Fluid_Garden8512

>Bulls have no brains, I guess? Remember the time two years ago that it was impossible for BTC to go above $57K because of TA and because of layers of cement between impenetrable bricks? And then it smashed through it with ease and how we mocked you for months? Yeah, it was hilarious.

Curious-Ad-3192

Two hawkish dissents voting for a quarter-point hike explain why BTC quickly faded that pre-FOMC push to 81.7k. Until December rate expectations settle down, fading range extremes works much better than chasing breakouts.

Holywizy

Agreed, the hold was basically fully priced in. Small note: it's Warsh giving the presser now, not Powell. And it wasn't just Hammack, Lisa Cook also dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, so two votes for tightening already. With September inflation at 3.7%, December definitely looks like the real decision. Curious if BTC holds $80K into that.

Successful-Mud-2000

Good for network security, but one small correction: miners didnt turn their mining hardware toward AI. Bitcoin ASICs can only do SHA-256, they are useless for AI training. What miners redirected was their power contracts and data center space, hosting GPUs for AI companies instead of running ASICs. So hashrate coming back probably means some of that capacity is going back to mining, or new ASICs are being plugged in The interesting part is the timing. Hashrate is going up while price is sitting around 80k and down for the year. More competition plus flat price means less revenue per machine, and difficulty is already climbing on the chart. Margins for miners are probably getting tight Would be curious to see what happens after the next couple of difficulty adjustments. If price doesnt follow, the less efficient miners might be the next ones to switch off or sell more of their BTC

Elmer-Shutara

There's a pretty big difference between paying a merchant directly in BTC and using a crypto card that converts your BTC behind the scenes. If the merchant accepts Lightning payments, you can actually settle in Bitcoin without going through a card network. Most crypto debit cards don't work that way though, since the merchant generally receives fiat. Also worth checking the tax treatment in the US, because spending BTC can count as a taxable disposal even when you never manually sell it on an exchange.

Romanizer

Absolutely. Compute is usually run by for-profit companies. If a nation state wanted to stop BTC, they should invade Taiwan and produce nothing else than ASICs and chips for them. Then they could maybe get close in a few years. But then they would lose the AI race and their economy would collapse. Bitcoin never offered incentive to attack the network and likely never will. All that quantum noise is just that, noise.

Coolethan777

They stop BTC. That’s not nothing. 

Coolethan777

You are assuming they have profit motives. What if a nation state wanted to stop BTC?

Porcellanidae

Stop buying bs, even when your BTC is up

SoverignOne

IF QC can hack the cryptography before its upgraded, it will be a futile attack because once that happens BTC loses its trust and worth and goes to zero so stealing BTC will leave one with nothing. At that point, it’s just an attack to be an attack, but tin the end, the attacker gains nothing.

Successful-Mud-2000

Easiest way: ignore the fee labels and measure the end result Before buying, write down the BTC price on a site like CoinGecko. Divide what you are spending by that price, thats how much BTC you would get with zero costs. Then compare with what actually lands in your wallet after the withdrawal. The difference is your real total cost Where it usually leaks: Deposit. Card payments often cost 2-4%, bank transfers are usually much cheaper or free Spread. The simple "buy" button usually gives you a worse price than the market. Most exchanges have an advanced or pro trading screen with lower costs, worth learning Trading fee. Usually small, often under 0.5% on the advanced screen Withdrawal fee. Usually a flat amount in BTC, not a %. On 50 dollars it can be a big chunk, on 500 its nothing. Thats why a lot of people buy small amounts regularly but only withdraw once in a while If the total is over 2-3% on a small buy, there is probably a cheaper way to do it on the same exchange

Successful-Mud-2000

Do both at the same time, but with a tiny amount Buy like 20 bucks on a reputable exchange, then set up a free mobile or desktop wallet and send it there. Then send a part back. That one small round trip teaches you more than hours of reading, and if you mess something up it only costs you 20 Things I wish I understood earlier: On an exchange you dont really own the coins, you own a promise. Fine for buying, not great for holding a lot long term The seed phrase IS the wallet. The app is just a window. Lose the phone and keep the seed, you are fine. Lose the seed or let someone see it, the coins are gone Networks matter. When you withdraw, the exchange may offer different networks. For BTC send on the Bitcoin network to a Bitcoin address, otherwise funds can get stuck or lost Fees change a lot depending on how busy the network is. Sending tiny amounts often can cost more than it should, so later on its better to withdraw in bigger, less frequent chunks Once you are comfortable and the amount grows, then think about a hardware wallet

ErasmitoWathelet

Sending BTC from a hardware wallet doesn't expose your recovery phrase or private keys to the person receiving it. The device signs the transaction without handing over the private key. What you do need to watch is the address and amount shown on the actual hardware wallet screen, rather than trusting whatever your computer displays. I'd also make a small test transaction if it's your first time sending to that person. A compromised computer is a real concern, but simply making an outgoing payment isn't the same thing as compromising your wallet.

Thaddaeus_Undergrade

This is a good example of why seeing BTC on a company's balance sheet isn't the same thing as knowing it has unrestricted control over those coins. If the assets are held through an exchange or another custodian, the custody agreement and actual withdrawal rights matter enormously. I'd want to know whether the company had previously verified withdrawals and how the holdings were reconciled. Doesn't automatically prove fraud, but it's a pretty serious distinction for shareholders.

read_more_comments

They did a transaction completely on the exchange then found they couldn't withdraw... Really nothing to do with BTC.

PhobozZz1

Are you planning an accident on this boat where you "lose" 1,000 BTC?

DarrelXero

Square (US except NY) lets merchants accept Bitcoin via Lightning. At checkout select Bitcoin, scan the QR or tap NFC with a Lightning wallet. Payment settles in seconds from your wallet with no manual sale. Merchants receive BTC or auto-converted USD. 0% fees through 2026 then 1%. $600 transaction limit. Cash App map shows participating sellers. Not enabled everywhere. US BTC spending is usually taxable.

Icy_Dragonfruit__

Start small, learn the basics, and don’t rush and treat BTC as a high-risk addition and only invest what you can afford to lose.

cryptokeyhole

The options market mostly agrees. BTC's 1-week at-the-money implied vol is about 37%, barely a point above the 1-month at 36%, so there's very little Fed premium priced in. That works out to roughly 5% either way over the next seven days, about $76.5k to $84.7k, decision included.

MoparMiningLLC

I would say no OP said it was a fake 4 hours ago besides it does not even look like a 1000 BTC cas bar.

anon1999666

Idk why you’re being downvoted. Everyone I know in my circle knows about BTC. My hippy uncles in Appalachia know about BTC. It became mainstream in 2021. Most of the adults itw have already decided if they want to invest in it or not.

AP_lookingahead

I hate that when I see this post I always look up the price of BTC hoping to see a dip below my cost average so I can buy and it’s always fake. Everytime.

FairlyResolute

BTC just doing its usual sideways dance while alts bleed slowly, feels like deja vu from every cycle

BrendanRodgersss

I'd compare how much BTC actually ends up in your wallet for the same £100 or £500 purchase rather than looking at advertised trading fees alone. Include the GBP deposit cost, exchange-rate spread, trading fee and withdrawal fee. Sometimes the cheaper-looking exchange ends up costing more once you move the Bitcoin into self-custody, especially with smaller recurring purchases.

NuklearniEnergie

Imagine peeling the sticker off revealing the key to a bitcoin wallet containing 1k BTC

jguest1105

This is the part of BTC-backed loans that almost never gets shown, and the numbers are sobering. At a 50% starting LTV, 41 out of 100 loans ended in liquidation. Even at 20%, which most people would call conservative, 4 out of 100 still got liquidated. There was no starting point in your test that survived every start date. The detail that stood out most to me is the timing. More than half the margin calls landed at night or on a weekend. Bitcoin does not wait for business hours, and a borrower who cannot top up fast in a crash does not really have 48 hours in any practical sense. It also matters that raising the liquidation threshold or adding a day to top up changed almost nothing, while a lower starting LTV and a shorter term actually helped. The interest rate is the number lenders advertise. The liquidation terms are the number that decides whether you keep your coins.

Avanchnzel

Just keep in mind that while these services might advertise themselves as having "0% fees", they will usually adjust the BTC exchange rate, which is how they make their money. If you use a CEX like e.g. Kraken, you usually only pay a fixed fee of 0.4% (or 0.25% as a market maker) plus a fixed 1$ or 1€ for the withdrawal to a bank account. In comparison, the effective cost of using Bitrefill would be closer to abou 2-4%. You're basically paying a convenience tax. But if convenience is your priority, then it might be worth it.

ProofPomegranate7331

Everyone hates coinbase, but they have a debit card that you can set to spend BTC or any other asset you have on the platform every time you swipe it.

ShipMysterious7602

Open an account with Xapo Bank. You can hold BTC with them and can choose to pay either in the BTC you hold or USD. Also one of the cheapest places to buy Bitcoin in regards to spread and commission. They also have a BTC fund you can invest in or loans against your BTC up to $1m I think. Check them out, if interest drop me a dm and I can send you a link if you want, gives you half your annual membership fee back in your pocket.

Own_Construction2323

Crypto payment apps are probably the easiest option right now. Some let you spend from a connected wallet anywhere Visa is accepted, without manually selling your BTC first. There's still conversion happening behind the scenes, though.

read_more_comments

There is actually a better way to do it - you buy BTC etf in your 401k and do a roth conversion, or just buy it directly in your roth. Returns are tax free. If you want to wait till you retire to cash out, you can still play the cycles by buying and selling in the account. The gains this way dwarf even holding a year for LTCGs.

engulfed11

I offer 999BTC. Putting you rip-off merchants to sleep.

Interesting_Loss_907

All true about chain analysis. Fair point. But the addresses are still anonymous, & also remains true you don’t know with certainty which transfers are *payments* to vendors, or payments to other users, or which are simply transfers between wallets. Even if you were to identify a receiving address as probably belonging to some sort of commercial entity or store, if you were trying to track BTC that you originally paid an employee months earlier, and you saw that after a couple of other transfers some of it went to an address that might be a store, would that really matter? He wouldn’t even know if it was your employee that made a payment to a commercial entity because one of the prior transfers could’ve been him sending it to another user who then spent it on goods. My point is just that detailed information or facts about who exactly is receiving transfers is not something you get from chain analysis.

KookyspookyYami21

I think the first question is whether you're looking for a short-term trade or a long-term investment. Bitcoin can swing much more sharply than broad stock indexes, so I'd decide on your time horizon and how much downside you can tolerate before buying anything. If you're new to BTC, understanding custody and avoiding phishing is probably just as important as trying to time the market.

-Squidster-

Up to you, honestly it looked better unpeeled so maybe leave it that way. Chances are if they’re selling fakes, they aren’t taking the time to load them with BTC 😅 Where did you get it from, eBay?

Romanizer

You’re identifying real trade-offs, but those don’t establish that the underlying capabilities are redundant. **Self-custody exchanges institutional protection for direct control.** Losing keys is a real risk. So is depending on an intermediary’s permission. Recoverable bank accounts are useful; the option to hold an asset outside that relationship is useful too. Insurance within the banking system doesn’t replicate independence from it. **Scarcity needs demand.** The argument is that Bitcoin’s combination of scarcity, verifiability and permissionless transfer creates reasons for demand. Comparing it with something merely rare doesn’t address those capabilities. Forking its code practically deletes its liquidity, acceptance, infrastructure and network effects. **The cap depends on consensus, but software enforces the rules each node accepts.** SegWit and Taproot didn’t make existing nodes accept excess issuance. A supply increase would require changing that validation rule; pointing to previous upgrades doesn’t remove this distinction. **Faster payments don’t necessarily provide the same service.** An exchange can block conversion without gaining control over self-custodied BTC. Bitcoin permits direct settlement without that exchange. Major fiat-backed stablecoins retain issuer controls. Tether explicitly reserves freezing powers. Fees and throughput remain genuine limitations. **Gold is worth discussing:** Gold is hardly a benchmark of stable short-term purchasing power: it fell 8.5% in September alone, and the World Gold Council describes its volatility this year as unusually elevated. That doesn’t establish Bitcoin as safer; it shows that substantial volatility can coexist with an established monetary role. Bitcoin adds capabilities physical gold lacks: direct remote settlement, precise digital divisibility and independently verifiable issuance without transporting, storing or assaying metal. Gold’s physical uses are an advantage, but they don’t guarantee its market price. Both assets depend on continued demand; the relevant question is whether their properties give people reasons to hold them. And there is barely any reason to hold gold when Bitcoin exists.

Able-Mycologist-461

I came from trading too and lost everything in 2020. What fixed it wasn't a better trade, it was buying a fixed amount on a schedule: $300 BTC every Friday, $300 VOO every Tuesday. If you start, would you buy once or a little every week?

RetiredAvocado

There's some [grumbling](https://natinfosec.substack.com/p/adam-backs-blockstream-borrows-billions). The fact they cannot fund 605 BTC hole in Liquid is somewhat of an evidence. LBTC is unrelated to the wallet but puts longevity in question. So the "community" of 18 Jade owners would have to rally together and maintain it without them, true.

Sure_Value2003

Yep, funding rates generally can be more expensive and managing your own 2x leverage position (buying with BTC collateral debt is 2x technically) in a decentralized way is more flexible. Both ways are okay IF there is a strategy, a plan.

-Squidster-

Unfortunately a [fake](https://www.reddit.com/r/cryptocollectibles/s/87reeclyYY) but still cool. Casascius only made 16 of the [1000 BTC bars](https://ibb.co/8n2sp0Zr). You can find more info about them and other physical bitcoin collectibles over on r/CryptoCollectibles

lus1d

I’ll add my counterpoint. This particular post I find quite valuable, because I have advised people to consider borrowing against BTC rather than selling if they get an RL cash flow crisis eg medical bills.

lus1d

Not sure of the advantage of borrowing to buy more BTC over taking a leveraged long position (spot or perp) on a centralised exchange….? Maybe rates….

According-Ad-2594

Coinbase advanced or kraken pro. I've been using the pro interface on kraken for many many years and never had any trouble at all. The pro bit is just a different interface with much lower fees. The BTC withdrawal cost and trading fees are pretty good.

greg0rie

Get used to it. BTC is not what it was intended to be anymore. You have already see tbe highest its ever going to go.

Lucky-Interview-7689

\> Self-custodied BTC is no government's liability and no bank's promise to pay. Holding it requires no custodian. Cuts both ways. With no issuer, nobody owes you anything, so its value rests entirely on other people continuing to want it. "No custodian" also means no recourse: lose the keys or get scammed and the coins are gone. Most people hold it through exchanges or ETFs anyway, which are custodians, and you still buy, sell and pay tax through the regulated system. I can go to my bank and recover my lost password. I can get refunded for funds lost in a bank collapse from the FDIC. \> No government, developer or miner can unilaterally make existing nodes accept extra supply. Correct for the protocol, but the cap is enforced by social consensus, not cryptography. The rules have been changed before (SegWit, Taproot). A cap change is very unlikely, but it's a coordination question, not a law of nature. And one token being scarce doesn't limit substitutes, since anyone can fork it or launch another coin. Scarcity without demand is worth nothing; plenty of rare things are worthless. My favorite example is my own dog's shit. Maybe it's a fertilizer, and maybe not a good one, but at least it does have utility. \> It allows direct, cross-border transfers without a bank or payment company authorizing them. There is no central administrator with an account-freezing button. The protocol has no freeze button. The on ramps and offramps do. And there you see the redundancy of crypto. Base-layer throughput is a few transactions per second for Bitcoin, fees fluctuate, and transfers are irreversible. And a transfer only matters if the other side will accept BTC for something real, which is the adoption problem. For cheap cross-border transfers there are many other options that offer security and are incredibly quicker than Bitcoin. \> You don't need Bitcoin to replace fiat for that option to be useful. This is the best version of your argument. So this is insurance against sovereign nation failure or banking failure, which matters to such a small number of transactions, that anyone entering into these transactions would already be using established channels with insurance. Next to a $1.6T market cap it doesn't add up. That valuation implies much broader demand than this niche explains. And gold already offers non-sovereign scarcity with far less volatility. Market cap is meaningless. What does your tech do? Nothing that isn't already done and better, with more efficiency, and actual safeguards in the traditional financial system. A scheme is a scheme, doesn't matter what the next fool is willing to pay.

Romanizer

Sorry, just read the thread again and saw you were arguing against Bitcoin. In that case, you should be some from the large walls of texts from AmericanScream.. :-) The strongest case for Bitcoin is the combination of properties it offers: 1) Non-sovereign ownership: Self-custodied BTC is no government’s liability and no bank’s promise to pay. Holding it requires no custodian. 2) Verifiable scarcity: Its issuance schedule and 21-million cap are independently auditable under the existing consensus rules. No government, developer or miner can unilaterally make existing nodes accept extra supply. 3) Permissionless settlement: It allows direct, cross-border transfers without a bank or payment company authorizing them. There is no central administrator with an account-freezing button. Together, those properties provide a practical option for holding and transferring value outside sovereign monetary systems and financial intermediaries. You don’t need Bitcoin to replace fiat for that option to be useful. Scarcity alone doesn’t create value; demand for those capabilities is the economic argument. That supports a case for Bitcoin’s usefulness, not any particular valuation or guaranteed return.

0a0d0s0

The lean amount, by a long way. Both on Baseline with the 2-year cap: \- Trigger (lean $2,250): 20% needs 2.9 BTC, 30% 2.9, 40% 3.0, 50% 3.1 \- Lean amount (30% trigger): $2,250 needs 2.9 BTC, $1,500 needs 2.6 The trigger mostly changes how often you go lean. 20% only added one more stretch, while 40% and 50% wait for deeper falls, so you're lean less often and save less. The lean amount changes how much each lean month saves without changing how many there are. Which refines the rule of thumb: the 1% per lean year is for a 25% cut. Dropping to half your budget saves closer to 2% per lean year. So the saving scales with both how long you're lean and how deep the cut is. I wrote the full set of runs up on the blog if you want the table.

read_more_comments

They raised 210 million two years ago, and there is no evidence they are bankrupt. Liquid BTC has nothing to do with their hw wallet. The source is true open source, so even if they go under, you can still use it, make updates, and run your own blind oracle if needed. You can also skip buying their hardware and build your own jade hw wallet if you were paranoid.

UpbeatFix7299

How many decades before running a fusion reactor to make gold approaches the cost of digging it up? Maybe our grandkids will have to worry about it. Ditto with AI and crypto, though I think BTC has zero intrinsic value.

HesitantInvestor0

I find that hard to believe. I also think we should define our terms a bit. Is someone with 5 dollars of BTC on Cash App an owner? I suppose technically, yes. But it's a bit like saying someone is employed if they work an hour a month. I'd be willing to bet there are a few million people who own a relatively significant amount of Bitcoin. Apparently there are around 200 million addresses holding 0.01 BTC or more. That's only about 800 bucks, so a pretty low bar. Also you have to consider that many people own multiple wallets. If you have 0.1 BTC as the bar it drops to around 30 million wallets, which again, are owned by fewer than 30 million people.

Alfador8

Beyond that, *everyone* feels late when they get into bitcoin. There was a post on the old Bitcoin Talk forums about a dude who only had 600 BTC because he was late to the party.  If you don't understand the technology and its significance, you *will* feel late and likely exit too early even if you make a profit.

CipherScarlatti

Thought I saw somewhere here that 81k was the line for BTC for funds holding it. That explains the movement.

TheBot121288

True but those entities are top down and centralized. They will adjust to AI and quantum threats far more quickly than the BTC network will. Also, the authorities will care very little if BTC breaks. If an attacker exploits the banks etc..., they will be hunted down like dogs.

TheBot121288

I'm 50/50 at this point. I have traditional retirement accounts if it doesn't work out. I look at it this way: There are 4 possible scenarios. 1. I hold and it goes up long term. Great. 2. I could sell and it eventually goes to zero. In hindsight that would look like a good decision. 3. I could hold and it goes to zero. That would suck. 4. I could sell now and it goes up long term. Absolute misery. Of those 4 scenarios, there is only ONE that I can eliminate of my own volition, and that's #4. Sure, holding risks scenario #3. But if that happens, at least I would have closure. It's over and I will eventually move on. But if #4 happens and BTC becomes the main store of value, the price will be right there, in my face, every day, reminding me what I missed out on. That would be far worse psychologically than holding to zero. (Especially if I keep contributing to my retirement accounts)

Rosenant

If that happens then it will at the same time crack security on all financial transactions. Everyone’s bank account and stock market accounts and all the bank and brokerage and government bank and sovereign wealth funds. What is available to be stolen in BTC pales in comparison to these other asset classes which are also all now digitalized.

RetiredAvocado

Massive appreciation of BTC, with all things remaining equal.

quantumsparq

If you are asking. No. Do not buy BTC.

Regular_Attempt_7073

The by creating conditions that mske people want to buy BTC. Buy buying it themselves on the down lo or by adding to their strategic reserve of BTC in a sizable way.

LittleTwo9213

Isn’t the point to adopt BTC by people who don’t understand it?

web3_goku

Lol You clearly don’t know nothing about BTC

OssoBlanco86

So take a look at the ETFs that have surfaced around BTC, for example BTCI and STRC for example. If there was no future or worth to profit off of this would not happen. The one thing that crypto has that stocks do not is self custody, I wish I could do that with my stocks or ETFs. It’s still early and you keep seeing the word “ tokenized “ or “ tokenization” being mentioned. Buy some and tuck it away!