BTC

Empty-Operation569

I have 1/3 in BTC SOL ETH. Staked and I DCA those. 1/3 in well researched alts, staked. Then 1/3 is for trading plus a few wild cards with insane staking yields that seem worth the risk.

GlorionToken

Really interesting analysis. The TradFi redemption flow as a shadow variable makes a lot of sense — institutional products like GBTC create sell pressure that didn't exist in previous cycles. The old stablecoin inflow = BTC pump playbook was built on retail dynamics. With ETFs and institutional products now in the mix, the signals have changed. Good data work!

steyMorgan

I don’t go all in on one coin I prefer diversification to manage risk. For core holdings, I stick mostly to BTC and ETH, then a small portion in stablecoins and a few selective alt plays depending on market conditions. I also use Coindepo to help keep everything structured, especially for tracking positions and staking yields instead of just chasing one bet.

avantartist

I was an early adopter and thought I was late to the party. Sold In 2013 for a down payment on a house, I’d a decent exit point but then watch BTC bleed out and didn’t start buying again for a while. I joke if I’d held I could have bought the entire block.

GlorionToken

Haha accurate! BTC has been in this tight range for a while now. The boring consolidation phase is actually healthy though — it shakes out the weak hands and builds a stronger base for the next move. Patience is the hardest skill in crypto!

Character-Resist-961

What’s worse: watching your BTC drop against the USD temporarily, or having your entire bank account frozen for weeks because of bureaucracy? I don’t treat Bitcoin as an investment, but as the only real escape from a broken system. Monetary sovereignty and permissionless, trustless transactions are why I’ll always be a Bitcoiner.

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

If you bought BTC before 2021 you absolutely care about a 2x-10x multiple on your cost lots, and it’s disingenuous to pretend otherwise People joining BTC in the last few years can say that but, and the multiples of appreciation from earlier don’t have to be the deliberate intent, but acting like it’s disregarded water odd your back is silly

GlorionToken

Great portfolio breakdown! The BTC/ETH core makes a lot of sense as a foundation. Hyperliquid has been impressive — real usage and real revenue is what separates it from hype-only projects. Your point about delivery vs promises is spot on, that's the key lesson most crypto veterans learn the hard way. Good luck with the bull market!

honeybunnylux

Only BTC, and few meme coins

liquid_at

There is a certain pattern in posts, claiming how "BTC + (limited number of usually respected alts) + Random shitcoin are clearly the best possible portfolio. Totally doesn't look as if they tried to associate their scams with established names to fake credibility at all. 100% honest recommendation by a concerned citizen.

GoblinSarge

...so sell it all and out it into BTC?

CryptoDeepDive

75% BTC and 25% Eth. Rest is a gamble.

Optimal-Divide8574

This is true. I don’t look back and say “I wish I’d bought 10 BTC in 2009” I’d have doubled or tripled my money and made a few grand the first time it spiked and I’d have thought I was clever. I wish I’d bought 10 BTC and forgotten where I’d put it or that I’d even bought it. And then suddenly remembered. That would be good. Having bought BTC early and sold way too soon must be much more upsetting than having just missed the boat. I did buy some in 2021 so I’m still ahead. But not in a life changing way.

Temporary-Cause730

I keep the majority in BTC (50-60%), some ETH and SOL (around 10-15% combined) and the rest I use in 2-3 conviction plays. I used to have like 15 coins, but honestly it just makes it harder to follow and mentally exhausting. 

panthera_N

bo\_bo has pumped 10,000x in the last 3 weeks, while I'm still wondering if BTC will drop to 55k, and if it doesn't drop, and I don't buy, I don't make a profit (2x).

sup

To be frank, we lost that argument BTC was invented. Everything transaction is public, on the **fully public, immutable ledger.**

Suspicious-Skill1934

BTC often surprise people

Obic1

So you’re saying BTC is purely speculation? What about the Big 7

Scottex99

CRO proper dead, DOGE maybe some life but yeah just flip all to BTC and check back in another 4 years

rocket_beer

Absolutely not lol You pay transaction fees Fiat is for consumer purchases. The world reserve currency is the stupid USD When BTC becomes the world reserve currency, there won’t be a need to do any of that anymore; it will be native. It’s horrible financially and I’m tired of repeating the same thing over and over to you bots. You lose fractions every single time you spend and replace.

Random_Person_246810

If you truly understand BTC and how fiat works, you should have zero concern.

retracement

The fact you think BTC being up 1k is proof of anything demonstrates you dony actually know what you are talking about.

__redruM

Diversify outside crypto in stocks. In Crypto, only touch the top 2 or 3. Currently I’m slowly downsizing my BTC, which is my only crypto.

Calm-Professional103

Reduced my stack to BTC and some ETH. 

SyZyGy_87

BTC eth and xrp.

SebCandela

I hold BTC and observe the charts of the top 10 coins against Bitcoin. If anything looks technically poised for a run, I switch part of my portfolio into that coin and move back to BTC after taking profits.

BriefWay4604

I had 35-50 coins from 2017-2023. Most of it was XRP though. Now I’m more focussed on a few projects and moved a lot of my holdings into Stocks. Holdings are now (with BTC 40% of my portfolio): BTC, Doge, KAS, ALGO, LINK, HBAR, XRP and Shib.

Disastrous_Fee5953

So unlike BTC, banks actually have countermeasures to prevent crooks from laundering money. Got it!

rocket_beer

Until BTC is the world reserve currency, it is a horrible financial decision to give up any of your SATs and trade them in for FIAT right now. You are paying for the transaction fee twice… and paying tax on that transaction as it is a taxable event. It’s just incredibly stupid to do that right now. We all should be stacking and stacking and stacking as many SATs as we can pack in right now.

cubeeless

BTC to $400k!

Zealousideal-Pay2642

Not really about the printing though, it's more like having someone who actually gets what Bitcoin is instead of calling it "digital tulips" or whatever. Fed chair who understands crypto means less chance of random regulatory nonsense that tanks the market for no good reason The money printing thing is separate issue entirely - even sound money guy might see BTC as legitimate store of value, which is already huge shift from current stance

liquid_at

I think the problems started when people assumed that a limited currency that will not be produced anymore within 100 years, that will always increase in scarcity and value, will be a good currency that people will like to spend on stuff to keep the economy flowing. But I do believe that governments buying BTC does have a place in a crypto world where you literally consider BTC digital gold, but allow secondary currencies with better tokenomics for monetary use. As long as these are pan-national, no individual government can prevent people from transfering that value accross borders in an instant. No regime can deny minorities the right to participate in financial transactions. No bank can deny customers based on any dicriminating ideas. As long as you have a capable device that is connected to a network, you can participate. That's what it is supposed to do. How much of that a government holds is only interesting when it comes to pump&dump on the value. That will also be temporary though, due to reserve-size putting a limit on how much can be sold. This would also be solved very easily by having multiple currency chains globally, that cannot possibly all be attacked at the same time due to total market cap and arbitrage algorithms.

PenguinsInvading

Because my job as both trader and analyst is not to predict but to setup various scenarios based on the information I can extract. So when I said "of course not" I didn't mean *of course it won't see 50k*. I meant *technical analysis doesn't guarantee it*. It's a disclaimer for people that might see this as * based on TA stars are aligning so it has to crash*. Market just doesn't work like that. >I'd much rather we see another leg down and spend six months consolidating. Up now would be a disaster imo. Expectations affect our judgment. What you say can occur. But if it didn't, you shouldn't put your expectations on top of what the market is showing. Let's BTC doesn't see 50k and starts its bitrun somewhere above that price. If TA told you we're entering a bullish market and onchain data gave you additional info, then you should accept the fact and plan your risk. Otherwise might enter late or miss the bitrun. And that will affect your judgement.

beingmodest

Anyone cash out BTC and invest in anything but crypto?

Character-Resist-961

Nope. As I mentioned in a previous reply, I sold my BTC for a stablecoin and used a crypto card instead.

kissthesky303

Exchange funds in BTC ain't gonna be a problem ever tho, just the cashing out side of things is, as you step out in the realms of TradFi with all those rules.

PrisonerToTheCats

I keep a strong base of BTC ~50% and have some alt like AKT and HYPE, trim these down if they keep outperforming. You can put the 'profit' back into BTC. BTC is basically your stable coin now.

_R0Ns_

Wasn't the point of BTC to exchange funds without questions about compliance and governmental influence?

No_Broccoli_4427

stop following people and just follow the BTC cycle regard, its gonna be a 10x

icantgiveyou

Regardless I have similar thing happened to me. After I withdrew some gambling wins to my bank Barclays, my account got frozen and had to go to the bank, talked to couple of bankers about it, showed them what I been doing and it still took 3 business days to sort it out. There are mechanisms in place that trigger security measures. Each bank is slightly different T&C, but they all able to do it if they suspect anything even remotely illegal. Bottom line, unlike BTC, you not in charge of your money if someone can froze it.

MediumLibrarian7100

Bitcoin is basically a global digital asset with a fixed supply schedule. Every 4 years the amount of new BTC entering circulation gets cut in half automatically by the protocol itself. That’s why people pay attention to “cycles”. It’s one of the only major assets on earth where future issuance is mathematically known in advance. Learn this and you’ll be able to answer this question for yourself on the way down and up!

Cultural-Candy3219

The tension is real, but I do not think it breaks the Bitcoin thesis by itself. It mostly changes the time horizon. At 5% Treasury yields, the hurdle rate for every non-yielding asset is higher. That can pressure BTC in the short run because marginal capital can sit in bills, funds delever, and speculative flows have less reason to chase duration-like assets. In that regime, liquidity and real yields often matter more than the philosophical hard-money argument. The longer-term argument is different: if high yields are partly a symptom of heavy issuance, fiscal stress, and political limits around debt service, then a scarce asset can still have a role. The paradox is that the same yield environment that hurts risk appetite can also remind people why they want an asset outside the Treasury/refinancing machine. So I’d watch real yields, dollar liquidity, ETF flows, leverage, and government issuance together. Treating “5% yields” as either automatically bearish or automatically bullish misses the loop between funding conditions and the reason people buy BTC in the first place.

NicholasAvalon

I love how resilient BTC has become over the years, I remember a decade ago holding this thing wasn't as much easy as now

Schrodingers-Pussy

How many BTC guys do you have?

Tommorox2345

All in BTC. Well not technically all. I have like 0.6% PENGU because I think it’s cool but I don’t expect any return from that

Cultural-Candy3219

For BTC and ETH, most of the usable inputs still come from Deribit options data, even if they are not handing you a clean “GEX level” number. You can look at open interest by strike/expiry, implied vol, delta/gamma estimates, and where large weekly/monthly expiries cluster. Some dashboards package that into gamma exposure, but the calculation is model-dependent. For alts it gets much messier. Options liquidity is thinner, venues are fragmented, and perps often matter more for near-term positioning than listed options gamma. A site can show a nice chart and still be mostly guessing if the underlying options book is shallow. I’d treat any crypto GEX dashboard as a map, not a signal by itself. Check: which venues are included, whether it separates BTC/ETH from alts, how often it updates, whether it uses open interest or actual dealer positioning assumptions, and whether major expiries line up with spot liquidity levels. If the methodology page is vague, I would not trade from the levels directly.

piggleii

Why do bearish posts get so many upvotes? I posted that I’m stacking BTC and literally got 5 downvotes.

Glad-External8640

Be detached from the idea that BTC is yours..... BTC is a collective projet

LiquidityCompass

Higher yields are bad for BTC in the short term because they pull liquidity out of risk assets. But if those yields are being driven by exploding debt and deficits, that's also one of the strongest arguments for owning BTC long term. That's the paradox Bitcoin was created for.

Obtusk22

half the time the causation ran the other way anyway, BTC pumped first and retail printed USDT to chase. inflow showed up after. real change is liquidity destination. new stables now park in T-bill products or sit as ETF settlement collateral that never touches the book. its not that outflows absorb inflows, the inflow isnt the same money anymore. watched the Bybit USDC depth in mid-April, bid stacks were yield-parked, gone the second funding dipped.

LateNeverr1

especially the long-tail venue decorrelation. id push back on the Binance/Bybit "same to 1 bp" claim slightly, on BTC sure, but on ETH and SOL ive seen 8-15 bp gaps open during squeezes and persist for 2-3 settlement cycles. compounds across a multi-pair book.

thats_gotta_be_AI

Yeah I figured, it’s not quite like 2017 where BTC dominance would flip when people rotated from BTC to alts, and thus “alt season”. There is a lot of institutions holding BTC now, so it’s a much harder read. Also I think retail is tapped out. It’s definitely a lot harder to make ridiculous profits in this space now.

Ced-Invest

Used to work in 2019-2020 because BTC was the only gateway and capital leaked down the curve into established names once it sat there. With spot ETFs absorbing institutional flow, part of that leak is gone, the bid stays in the wrapper. You can still pick names but the "cheap because BTC.D is high" read isn't the same setup it was. ETH at 2062 with BTC.D at 58 isn't really mispriced, it's just where the flow path lands now.

VeryThicknLong

The thing is, BTC is doing its thing. Stocks have historically had a good few years… please don’t believe stocks will continue upwards forever. There will be a huge correction. The US owes $3bn in just interest every day… think about that for a minute.

VeryThicknLong

It’ll do what BTC does. Hit bottom around October, then start climbing back up.

VeryThicknLong

BTC cycle says down and forming the head and shoulders.

suckyuhhmada

The ETH/XRP comparison is interesting but the mechanics are a bit different. XRP's underperformance in 2018-2024 was partly structural -- Ripple's escrow releases created persistent sell pressure that ETH doesn't face in the same way. ETH has been dealing more with a narrative gap: it's the dominant smart contract layer but hasn't had a clean story to rally retail around since the Merge. That said, the ETH/BTC pair has historically consolidated before larger moves, and the ecosystem breadth in staking, L2s, and tokenized assets is still unmatched. One thing worth watching is how exchange-side infrastructure handles ETH across pairs -- on BitMart for example the sub-account system lets you isolate strategies across different trading pairs which makes rotating between ETH and BTC positions a lot cleaner operationally.

suckyuhhmada

The pattern you're describing has shown up in every cycle, but the cohort that survives each reset is smaller and more focused. In 2018 most ICO tokens went to zero; in 2022 a lot of the DeFi food coins did the same. What's left is usually the layer-1s with real developer activity and the protocols that generate genuine fee revenue. The "altcoins are done" narrative historically peaks exactly when rotation out of BTC is slowing, which is typically mid-cycle rather than the end. The harder question is whether any specific alt has the network effects and real use to hold value outside of pure speculation, and most still don't pass that test.

Cultural-Candy3219

I think the missing piece is dispersion. People say altseason like the whole long tail moves together, but this cycle looks more like a barbell: ETF-accessible names and a few very liquid L1s get attention, while everything else needs its own catalyst. High BTC dominance does not stop individual alt rallies. It just means the default bid has not broadened. If ETH/BTC is still weak and stablecoin liquidity is not expanding, I’d be careful calling every SOL, XRP, or TON move a real rotation. Some of it is just isolated liquidity chasing the only names it can fit into.

thats_gotta_be_AI

Isn’t it better to buy alts when BTC dominance is high? I don’t mean any alts but a selection of the established alts.

phibbes

Swapping BTC for ADA. btc was 95k

LiquidityCompass

High BTC dominance doesn't mean altcoins are dead. It probably means the next alt season, if it comes, will be narrower and more selective than 2021. The real question is not dominance. It's whether liquidity starts expanding again.

Cultural-Candy3219

I’d be careful turning that into a direct trade thesis. Even if a state actor has mined or accumulated BTC, the market usually prices a much wider mix of flows: ETF demand, leverage, liquidity, dollar conditions, exchange inventory, and forced liquidations. A geopolitical headline can move sentiment, but it does not mean one government can cleanly push BTC down just because a rival may benefit from a higher price. The better trading question is probably narrower: did the event change spot flows, derivatives positioning, stablecoin liquidity, or exchange withdrawal behavior? If those do not confirm the story, it is easy to overfit a political explanation after price already moved.

Blockchainauditor

You wrote: “And if anyone tried to take that money from me, they simply couldn’t”. Looked it up, as you suggested. Found untold anecdotes of people having their BTC taken from them. Seized by the government. Stolen from their Trust wallet. Intercepted when moved. Pig butchered. Human engineering exploits. Just search this subreddit and Cryptoscams. “Constantly” going up? Maybe consistently or over time compared to a few years ago, but lots of people in the red right now; not at $128k USD. In the last six months, basic food costs have risen pretty significantly compared to BTC buying value. Not to take away from the value or future potential when 1 BTC = 1 BTC. There’s no need to overstate what it is, as those overstatements discourage rational adoption.

Traditional-Bit-4364

Why in your wildest dreams would you sell. Imagine this you or someone you know used Bitcoin to purchase things called drugs and you got mind disconnected for a day or so but you bought $50 for about 3 hits and hit 1 knocked your socks off spent about$12.00 and you then forgot your password today those accounts are called Dust and some of them have a lot of BTC as then BTC was 10 Cents and less. You did not buy the $10.00 pizza Volvo. You did not Permanently sever your mortal coil and they are still sitting there The whole 452 of them smiling at you every day Worth today 76000 \*452 about 34 Mil USD what a nice Rush all clean now.

FriendsMade_MeDoIt

Yeah this cycle feels way less straightforward than the “stablecoins in = instant pump” era. Feels like there are way more moving parts now that ETFs and TradFi flows are mixed in. A few people in my circle were confused too because stablecoin inflows used to get everybody instantly bullish. The absorption point is interesting though. BTC not reacting the way people expect is probably why sentiment feels weirdly cautious even near highs.

FriendsMade_MeDoIt

I always thought of DCA out as basically taking emotions out of selling the same way DCA in takes emotions out of buying. A couple people in my group do percentage-based exits instead of trying to call the exact top. Like sell a small amount every time BTC moves up another chunk instead of waiting for one magic number. Trying to perfectly time the cycle seems way harder than it sounds once things get euphoric. Everybody starts convincing each other it’s “still early” lol.

blade0r

Not buying more BTC at 57K euro.

Nice_Material_2436

Saylor: Never sell BTC! Mortgage your home and sell your kidney. Also Saylor: I'm gonna sell some BTC now.

Always_working_hardd

I've enjoyed his podcasts on real estate investing and in fact I bought several properties after listening to a couple of podcasts 6 years ago, that have been very successful for me. I'm surprised to here him discuss BTC.

RandomFrog

BTC reached 1,000 USD in end of 2013. It was recovering in 2015-2016.

jongolfpro

Since I posted this BTC up $1k. Get educated or get left behind.

SnackFactory

Leaving 400+ BTC on GLBSE

jongolfpro

This cycle will not follow the norms. This bear cycle will end early…. But! The whales of BTC are entrenched in the classic cycle. So it will rise over the coming months, but it won’t really take off until October this year.

jongolfpro

BTC cycle, especially whales, plus liquidation heat map to see where leveraged bets are, plus macro news, and technical analysis… not just predictions on who was liquidated.

BenzinaGrandeCapital

I see this post come up every once in a while. And people love to dog XRP holders but .... do you guys understand... how MASSIVE 67,000% is? And that's not even getting in at the bottom tick in 2017, that's just randomly buying this coin with a decent entry. Besides..... If you bought the bottom in 2020 you're up 3,000%. Of if you just got a super basic entry at .30 youre up 1000% I don't understand why XRP gets dogged so much when there are other coins that have not made any moves of 1000% or more and been around just as long such as XLM, or other coins within the similar space like XDC or HBAR. You know since 2017 the same time period BTC is only up 8,000%. That's nowhere close to 67,000%. And if you wanted to be accurate and bottom tick xrp that jumps to over 120,000%. https://preview.redd.it/tg29lsu7a03h1.png?width=1835&format=png&auto=webp&s=381db57837e9a930b3f39cb841d06dc063136a7f

No_Ordinary_Rabbit_

Part of me is proud that I was one of the ones that bought $1000 in BTC before 2017. The other part of me is quite irritated that I sold it the next day because I chickened out. Honestly, I had no business buying it in the first place, because I still did not understand it. I sure do now. And I sure am glad I got in before the real fun started. It is true, you get Bitcoin at the price you deserve. HODL.

UpDownLeftRightABLoL

At the time 100,000 BTC sold for $100 or something like that.

Lehcen

I knew an escort who paid with bitcoin to list on backpage but she deposited cash into BTC atm machines this was 2018. If you don’t have recollection of any clues… email, wallet, exchange… chances are near inexistant

2shyofa3sum

I didn't say you should buy her an iPhone. I said you buy your girl an actual gift, not BTC. This doesn't seem like a hot take to me.

lamoinew

My two cents I think they are keeping the price down to push out miners that are not corporate. Make the miners suffer fold up close down stop operation are pivot. Then when it's time only miners that will be left are big pools and corporate. Not a miner but do own a fraction of a BTC. Put everything I could into it which is not much as just a poor soul. Will not be here to ever see if BTC will make it big. got a terminal cancer so invested for my children. Just in case anyone wants to donate to my children future https://cash.app/$LamoineWaddle have all deposits 100% deposit to BTC.

2shyofa3sum

If you get your woman BTC instead of something else for her birthday (like an iPhone), you deserve the dumping that is surely coming to you.

Cultural-Candy3219

I would not read this as “Saylor turned bearish” by itself. Strategy is not just a wallet with BTC in it anymore; it is a public-company capital-structure trade wrapped around BTC. Once mNAV, preferreds, convertibles, buybacks, and credit conditions are involved, selling a slice can be a treasury decision rather than a pure market call. That said, it does change the story people repeat. “Never sell” is simple. “Sell when it improves per-share economics or protects the structure” is more realistic, but less meme-friendly. The risk is reflexivity. If the premium compresses, financing gets less attractive, BTC falls, and the market starts pricing possible sales, the vehicle can move very differently from spot BTC. Anyone holding it should understand that they are not only holding Bitcoin exposure; they are also holding management decisions, leverage, equity-market sentiment, and liquidity risk.

Cultural-Candy3219

DCA out usually means selling by rule instead of trying to call the exact top. The rule can be time-based, price-based, or portfolio-based, but the point is that you decide before the market gets emotional. Example approaches: Sell a fixed percentage of the stack every month once BTC is above a level you chose in advance. Sell small chunks at several price bands instead of waiting for one magic number. Rebalance when BTC becomes too large a share of your net worth. Sell enough to cover taxes, debt, or life expenses, then let the rest ride. It does not need to mirror your buying schedule. Someone might buy $50 a week for years and later sell 5% of holdings at a few planned levels. The important part is knowing why you are selling: risk reduction, actual cash need, or portfolio balance. The trap is calling it DCA while really doing “I’ll sell when it feels euphoric.” That can work once by luck, but it is not a process. A written exit ladder is boring, which is exactly why it helps.

Wildwildworld123

If you have no recollection of purchasing them then i can assure you, you didnt. This is how I know you never got any BTC. 2015, I was also up to no good. I was selling pressed xanax bars in bulk on top of taking about 10 of them a day. I was Mixing xanax, adderall, and methadone every day and was the worst bartard outta of all my friends. Even though I was in a black out for 12 hrs a day I would still have to meet my guy from localbitcoins at starbucks and sit with him while he counted the cash and then eventually sent the btc to my wallet. Exchanges werent readily available like they are now. When Mt.GOX was "hacked" trust in BTC was at an all time low. After buying BTC id go home log onto mac, go on tor, log on to alphabay and load the btc onto my wallet there. i also didnt use qr codes though they may have been used at that time. If you dont remember doing stuff like this I highly doubt you ever purchased any. there was other ways to get some but it wasnt a simple process. You would absolutely remember buying them and then sending them to a wallet Backpage owned. Also in 2025 1btc fluctuated from being worth $200-$400. You may want to consider going back to being a Dominatrix as you wont be finding any lost BTC and theres some big money Ive hear in that profession.

Cultural-Candy3219

I would publish two universes, not one ranked list. Otherwise the top of the model becomes a mix of real trades and things that only exist in a charting database. For a tradable version, I’d start perps-first: both legs listed on at least one serious venue, enough depth at your intended size, funding history available, and a rule that removes the pair if borrow/funding/slippage would consume the expected spread. If a coin only has spot liquidity and no reliable short, I’d label it research-only rather than let it sit beside executable pairs. I’d also keep USD and USDT separate. USDT is the practical denominator for most crypto, but if the signal is measured in USDT and the PnL is mentally marked in USD, that basis risk should be visible. A tight USD/regulated-venue set and a broader offshore/USDT set would be more honest than one universal top 100. The extra filter I’d add is venue overlap. A BTC/SOL pair that can be run on multiple deep perp venues is a different product from a midcap pair where one exchange controls most of the short side. Same stats, very different failure mode.

Last_Lawfulness_1736

In the funding-rate question at the end. The thing that consistently catches systematic crypto traders is path dependence, not the median rate. Your tier 1 "5-15% APR typical" deduction is fine as a planning baseline, but live funding goes to +0.10 to +0.15% per 8h during squeezes (~110-160% annualized for the window you're holding through), and squeeze windows correlate with exactly the regime where your mean-reversion signal is firing. The marginal cost of holding through the unwind concentrates in the part of the trade you need most, and a static funding line item on the backtest understates this materially. Two adjacent things worth modeling explicitly. Basis blowout precedes the funding adjustment. When BTC perp funding ramps to +0.10%+ intraday, basis can move 200-300 bps before the next settlement window, and your spread P&L gets hit in the unhedged direction even though funding is supposed to be the hedge. Pair trades carry spread risk during regime flips, not just funding risk. Venue funding rates decorrelate at the long tail. Binance and Bybit funding on BTC are basically the same number to 1 bp; on your 20-150 bucket the Binance/Bybit/OKX rates can diverge by 30-50 bps per 8h, and Hyperliquid funding on the same name often runs 2-3x either CEX. Eligibility filter built on a single venue's funding history misses the cost on the venue you'd actually execute. On Q4 jurisdiction, the venue-tag-per-pair split is the right call, but the cleaner cut is also tagging by which leg is the bottleneck. US-accessible names where the short sits on Hyperliquid behave completely differently from ones where the short sits on dYdX or GMX, even within the same "US-shortable" cohort. On Q5 framing, the equity precedent doesn't transfer because cohort heterogeneity is bigger in crypto. Top-20 BTC-beta wants one rebalance discipline, the 20-150 alt-L1/L2 cohort wants another, and the spot-borrow-only tail probably shouldn't be published without an execution-caveat rider at all. If you haven't already paper-tested the top-20 model with real-time funding settlement on the actual venues, that's where the path-dependent cost surfaces in a way the cointegration backtest doesn't. hex37.com runs Binance-style perp execution with funding payments on a free paper account, useful for the intermediate step before the capital decision. Two-to-four weeks of paper running through a regime flip is usually enough to see the funding-clipping behavior and basis blowout on the unhedged side.

AInception

It's a nothingburger. Halvings are beginning to look like a warning for the end if anything. I used to DCA with half my paycheck for years but I've stopped being so bullish after seeing how this last cycle played out. I'm not ready to give up yet, but next cycle may be my last if nothing changes. Halvings are no longer important to the market. Each cycle has diminishing returns. Something like 99-99.5% of all BTC is already in circulation, effectively 100%, with market makers impacting its value far more than the loss of a few hundred coins of new issuance could ever.. I mean, Michael Saylor buys more BTC than all the miners cumulatively receive. Nobody in their right mind thinks Saylor alone can dictate market cycles with his relatively small sum vs the market total. It's just as absurd to believe things are so exactly on a razors edge that if we had just 0.5X more saylors there'd suddenly be another bull market, though that would still have more impact on supply/demand than the next five halvings will. There's almost a full 21M/21M coins out there. But problem is, it's the security budget paying miners to secure the chain that's getting halved. If there were actually 100% issuance in circulation, Bitcoin would have no miners - its difficulty would decrease dramatically - and each transaction could be censored indefinitely and cheaply, rendering it useless and open to abuse/market manipulation. Miners only work for new issuance, tx tips make up under 1% of their energy costs. If you were paid $1000 per day to be a security guard, it cost you $25 to get to work, but each week your paycheck was halved.. The first week you'd make $6825. The 4th week you'd make $262. (We are here.) The 5th week you'd make $44. The 6th week you'd lose $66. This is how BTC issuance was designed, with 99%+ happening all at once and the last 1% is meant to maintain the budget forever onward. This design was based on scaling and utility, according to Satoshi, and was never supposed to rely on markets/governments/banks to prop it up. It's insanely precaruous to assume miners won't quit en masse once we cross their line of profitable, seeing as home miners faced the same event *already* then small scale miners then medium scale leaving us with only industrial/government scale operations left making anything today. Once they leave the home miners can come back to work at a loss, but the industrial miner can (short BTC and) turn their machine on for 4 seconds to erase weeks of their work. I think the market is starting to care less about speculative supply demand dynamics and thinking forward on what happens 2-3 more halvings down the line if the price doesn't increase 8X to offset miner pay. $60K per coin **must** become $480K or security will decrease, which **must** become $4M per coin or security will decrease, which much become $30M per coin or security will decrease. Where's all this money going to come from?? Why would it when AI is the new hot thing? Diminishing returns. It was a lot easier to 2X or even 50X at $100 per coin with 3% issuance in circulation than it is at $1M per coin with 99% in circulation. The only other side of this equation are miners, who are continuously forced to spend less on energy/security to make up for if the price doesn't at least double each halving (forever and ever), or who otherwise quit. Except why would BTC move from an $80-trillion asset to a $640-trillion asset in 3.5 years all because there's ~$150M less annual issuance occuring? These numbers assume there will be no energy inflation or security output will be even less than today, and is today's current security really enough to secure $650T with? At some point the equilibrium will shift and BTC becomes a game of hot potato, opposite of a store of value. The narrative of mathmatically inevitable security collapse has potential to ripple across the wider ecosystem, no one wants to be holding that bag. Core btc devs are saying 2 more halvings optimistically before they have to intervene and change the issuance schedule or consensus mechanism to allow enough miners to continue. This is all being priced into the next cycle... If this was wrong BTC would still 30X occasionally because of no/low liquidity. Or ETH would've at least 8X when it removed 3 halvings of issuance all at once, and not lost value instead. Some HOURS see $4B of BTC trading volume and the price doesn't move at all, but the entire YEAR after a halving there'll be $8B less issuance overall. It's a nothingburger.

TalkinMac

Leaving a USB containing the encrypted seed phrase to 50 BTC in 2015.

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Post is by: Outside-Annual-3610 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1tlxrtz/if_you_were_building_a_pairtrading_universe_for/ \*\*TL;DR\*\* I’ve built a statistical-arbitrage scanner that runs against roughly 250 large-cap US equities — the full rig: Engle-Granger cointegration, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean-reversion fits, half-life and Hurst filters, plus those frozen exit plans we lock in at entry. It works on equities because shorting is cheap, the universe is clean, and the relationships behave like dogs on a leash — they wander but they come back. Extending the same engine into crypto has delivered the same quiet revelation every honest quant eventually meets: the universe the model prices and the one a real account can actually go both long \*and\* short in are two different animals entirely. Before I publish any “Top 100” crypto pairs list, I thought I’d ask the people who actually trade this stuff for a living: what’s the right venue + instrument + denominator stack to build a repeatable edge around? \*\*What the numbers are showing\*\* We’re sitting on roughly 1,600 cointegrated candidate pairs pulled from spot data. About 900 of them are clearing the eligibility gates right now — Bond Strength, Hurst, half-life, p-value — all the usual filters. If anything, the mean-reversion statistics look cleaner than they do on US equities: bigger residuals, faster cycles, half-lives often landing in that comfortable 2-3 week window instead of the 4-8 we see in equities. Signal density is high. The execution path, however, is where the probability surface starts to bend in ways the back-test never quite warned you about. \*\*Where the model and reality quietly diverge\*\* A proper pair trade needs a clean, reliable short on the relative outperformer. For most altcoins, that published “USD price” you see on the chart is not really a USD price — it’s the USDT book multiplied by whatever the prevailing USDT/USD rate happens to be. Below the top twenty names, actual USD spot volume is somewhere between one and five percent of the USDT volume. Below the top two hundred, the USD book is essentially theoretical. That leaves the executable universe forking into three practical tiers: |Tier|Tokens|Realistic short instrument|Real-world cost| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Top \~20|BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP etc.|Perps on Binance/Bybit/OKX or spot on Coinbase/Kraken|Funding 5-15 % APR typical, ±50-150 bps drift over a 20-day hold| |\~20 to \~150|Mostly USDT-quoted|Perps on major CEXs + some DEX perps (Hyperliquid, dYdX, GMX)|Funding more volatile, depth thinner, 10-50 bps slippage per leg| |Below \~150|USDT-only|Spot margin borrow (if listed and borrowable at all)|Borrow APR that can quietly eat the entire modelled edge| Some of the highest-ranked statistical pairs I’m seeing sit squarely in tier three. Which is the honest way of saying the strategy works beautifully — on paper. \*\*The question I keep coming back to\*\* If you were designing a published “top N” crypto pair-trading universe — the way a US equity quant would calmly publish a top-250 list — how would you actually scope it? A few sub-questions I’d value real-operator views on: 1. \*\*Denominator.\*\* USDT is clearly the unit of account for something like ninety percent of global crypto volume, yet it remains a private-company IOU with a modest history of partial depegs. Do you build the entire universe USDT-quoted and treat USDT/USD as its own separate risk factor, or do you split into a tight USD tier and a wider USDT tier? 2. \*\*Instrument.\*\* Spot pairs or perpetual futures? Perps solve the shorting problem cleanly — no inventory, no locate, funding is simply the cost — but that funding rate is live, dynamic, and perfectly capable of flipping sign mid-trade. Does it make sense to publish a pair signal whose true “borrow cost” remains unknown at the moment of entry? 3. \*\*Venue cut-off.\*\* Do you insist both legs have a liquid perpetual listing on at least one major venue (Binance, Bybit, OKX, Hyperliquid, dYdX), or do you accept spot-margin borrow as a fallback for names that only clear one side? My instinct leans toward the stricter rule — anything that cannot be reliably shorted gets a quiet “not retail-shortable” badge and drops out — but I’m genuinely interested in the counter-argument. 4. \*\*Jurisdiction.\*\* US-accessible venues (Coinbase, Kraken, Hyperliquid, dYdX, GMX) versus the rest of the world (add Binance, Bybit, OKX, Bitget). Two separate products, or one product with a venue tag per pair? 5. \*\*Top 10 / Top 100 framing.\*\* On equities we publish a top-250 because that is roughly the cohort where cointegration holds and execution costs are uniformly cheap. Crypto feels chunkier: the top twenty majors behave like one big BTC-beta asset class, the fifty-to-one-hundred-fifty alt-L1s, L2s and DeFi names carve out their own sector cohorts, and the long tail starts to look a lot like gambling. Does a single “Top 100” still make sense, or are we actually looking at two or three category-specific lists? \*\*Where I’m leaning at the moment\*\* Two coverage tiers, labelled with complete honesty: \- A \*\*USD-quoted tier\*\* of roughly twenty-five to forty tokens, built around what a US retail account can actually execute cleanly on Coinbase or Kraken, with optional long-only or inverse-substitution framing. \- A \*\*USDT/perp-quoted tier\*\* built around tokens that carry a liquid perpetual listing on at least one of the major venues, with both clean spread P&L \*and\* funding-adjusted P&L shown side by side. I keep circling back on whether to publish anything at all for the long-tail, spot-borrow-only tier. The statistical relationships are genuinely interesting; the execution realities are genuinely brutal. \*\*Deeper plumbing available\*\* If anyone wants the longer version — Tether redemption mechanics, depeg history, perpetual funding arithmetic, US versus non-US friction stack laid out side by side — I wrote a more detailed piece on it. Happy to drop the link in the comments rather than clutter the body. \[Optional image: clean two-column chart showing “modelled universe” (\~900 eligible pairs) versus “retail-shortable universe by tier” (top-20 / top-150 / long-tail). I’ll attach if I run it.\] \--- \*\*Question to the people actually running systematic strategies in crypto right now:\*\* what venue + instrument + denominator combination did you ultimately settle on, and what do you wish you’d known about the funding-rate cost before you went live? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

MikeMiller8888

This happens all the time in rising real estate markets. The purchaser can only get an appraised value so high in those markets, and in cases where the buyer has offered more money than the lender will allow, the sale is restructured so that the sales “price” is the appraised value. The difference between that price and the original sales price is paid in cash, outside of the official transaction. The only difference here, is you’re saying you want to pay the difference with BTC. Sellers would know they can immediately sell it for cash, so it’s functionally cash.

PenguinsInvading

BTC high wave cycle is bearish with clear highs and lows. Volume in the current retracement is confirming the current trend, because it is decreasing. Last week's engulf increased the probability of starting the next leg in downtrend. Weekly candles are finally crossing 7 and 25 SMAs and price is getting rejected from 0.382 Fibo retracement. RSI has fully reset and is getting rejected from 50 (midline). DMI (DI-, DI+ and ADX) is stabilizing. If all three intersect, we will most likely have a momentum going. Pretty much everything is telling us the next bearish leg is coming. Does this mean BTC will crash and see 50s and 40s? Of course not. Nothing is certain, everything has a probability in TA. All the above mean jackshit if you don't use the information to allocate your risk and manage your decisions. So what should you do? 1) If we want to confirm a High wave cycle trend reversal, we need at minimum a double bottom pattern (or any other reversal patterns) or establishing a higher low compared to the current low. Then we need to wait until it breaks the high. Once it is confirmed, you can buy (Volume must increase) 2) If we establish a double bottom, once the neckline is broken, you can start DCAing assuming volume is increasing. 3) For a final confirmation for bullish market (based on current price) 94k resistance has to break. This doesn't mean we buy after breakout. It means I'm not gooing to take some profits because I expect the bullish trend to continue. I'm just gonna set my trailing stop loss. 4) If we continue the current downtrend, we need to be patient. Assuming there is a consolidation zone around 40k-45k, I would start Buying as soon as I see volume is bullishly increasing or, in the consolidation zone, I recognize sellers lack of power and momentum. However, I also set stop losses for my spot trading. This is my own view. The way I use oscillators and indicators may be different compared to anyone else. Someone else's entry may be my exit and vice versa. Eitherway, use this general analysis as an outlook. If you have any questions I'll be glad to answer.

Weird_Evidence6587

Short version: * **Bitcoin** and **Ethereum** are still the main coins. BTC = store of value, ETH = smart contracts ecosystem. * What’s new in the market: * Layer 2 networks (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base) * AI-related crypto projects * Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization * Memecoins still exist but are highly risky and fast-moving * Main exchanges still used: **Binance** and **Coinbase** If you want, I can also give you a simple low-risk way to re-enter the market.

GreenStretch

Yeah, but they could have used fiat or stablecoins in the 2021 cycle to buy those alts, no need to sell BTC.

GreenStretch

And there's really been no reason to switch from BTC to alts since 2018. Nobody wants fewer sats than they currently hold.

BadEquivalent4486

Will BTC go up?

jongolfpro

Precious cycles didn’t have institutional demand. However, it is possible that BTC whales from back in the day are mostly in control. In that case, we’ll see the rocket in October.

GreenStretch

Right, when there are so many fiat on ramps, people don't have to sell or trade their BTC into alts anymore. So the patterns of fiat price rises over the four year cycle have become more important for alts. The question is what's going to pop in 2029 or perhaps the autumn before.

Copytechguy

I only buy and mine BTC, but a while back I threw $50 at the Trump Coin, considering it was doing so well at the time. Yeah.... Lost half of that when I sold it back into BTC. Should have ignored the hype.

deeptimeresearch

For me, personally, I see it as a savings technology that has potential to be a medium of exchange in the future. But the “pros” really depends on the individual and their circumstances. In many countries it’s a way to protect yourself against your own country’s failing currency (Iran, Venezuela, Argentina, most of Africa). Obviously holding stablecoins or USD in these countries also offers protection of purchasing power. And stablecoin adoption is massive, but I see that as a gateway to BTC. In my view, Bitcoin is aligned with the Austrian school of economics (skeptical of debt and especially govt debt, growth should come from savings and real productivity) vs. Keynesian economics (debt for growth, pro money printing). Money is a ledger. Fiat relies on the trust in centralized institutions and Bitcoin relies on trust in a decentralized network where the public ledger and verification happen across the network of individuals or entities that run nodes and mine bitcoin. I would say trust in centralized institutions is eroding and has been for some time. I don’t see that ending anytime soon. That is the Bitcoin Store of Value argument. It hasn’t materialized as a MoE (medium of exchange) across most world economies. El Salvador maybe serving as the example outside of small circular economies. Greshams law explains why, for when there are two competing monies (good and bad) people spend the bad and hoard the good money. I believe Bitcoin is the good money, and that Greshams law applies to Bitcoin.