BTC

eris-discordian

Did you back test this strategy, let's say with actual market data from the last 5 years? Even buying near the last bottom in 2022, one would run out of BTC in about 20 months.

L00PYLL0YD

For sure. Short term volatility. Long term greatness... Iran are clever for opting for tolls via BTC payment. Their own currency has been debased significantly and they know asking for it in the hardest asset, is a smart thing.

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Post is by: mykie223 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sjq7xd/why_are_all_of_the_major_blockchain_tech_startups/ This is the last thing I wanted to do on my weekend, but here I am. The enshittification of mainstream blockchain companies has gotten so bad that despite spending an entire weekend, you simply cannot buy cryptocurrency. Perhaps for others with a large percentage of their portfolio already in crypto, you'll be fine; but for any NEW user or NEW account, you WILL NOT be able to buy crypto. On Friday, April 10th, I had one goal in mind: see how difficult it was to purchase bitcoin/ethereum anonymously in the United States. I program. I read. I write. I work in private equity. In college I was even a VP in a blockchain club at an Ivy League university. I attend expos, conferences... I am extremely engaged in this space, to say the least. I have even held multiple coins in my wallet for years. I am by all means a capable individual who is well educated in blockchain, finance, and tech. **Yet, the enshittification has gotten to a level so high that I literally cannot purchase any amount of any cryptocurrency.** I couldn't care less if this is some elaborate scheme to prevent Americans from exiting their United States Dollars. If I had to guess, that is exactly what is happening. After spending the weekend failing at every attempt to purchase coins anonymously (Mastercard and Visa will automatically deny ANY blockchain purchase with gift cards, as does PayPal), I finally gave up. I closed VNC and opened up MY PERSONAL iPHONE and used my personal Coinbase, MetaMask, Uniswap, and even Robinhood accounts. Here is what I found: 1. **Robinhood:** I've lived in Florida for one year. Robinhood denies me access to ANY blockchain features claiming that I have lived in a state that does not support cryptocurrency transactions in the last 45 days. It has been over 365 days. This is blatantly false. 2. **Stripe (Link):** Among the worst of them all. You give them everything — ALL YOUR PERSONAL DATA — and they reward you with an "Unknown Error" code at the very end of your purchase, with no ability to contact support or talk to a human about the decision. If this is happening to me, it's happening to every other person out there even considering entering the space. 3. **Coinbase:** I swore never to touch Coinbase after I made a substantial BTC purchase at the BTC conference to engage in some of the events going on there, and they froze my ability to USE MY BITCOIN for an entire week for NO REASON. I get it, you want deposits. The longer you park your funds there, the better the balance sheet looks. I totally get it. However, **I am not your guinea pig.** I made the decision to use your service at my will, and that will ends the moment you tread on my rights and hold my hard-earned money. I will never forget it, and I will never forgive it. Here's the problem with these companies: they spend all this time worrying about what features they're going to provide, how many dicks they're going to ride, and how much confetti they're going to pump up our arses — yet 98% of them fail to meet the basic necessities of the very basic services they advertise. Why does this happen? Well, the only conclusion I can draw is that they simply do not give a fuck. By the time your worthless life crosses paths with their worthless service, they're at a point where any material value they attribute to your purchasing power as a consumer is so low compared to their stock options and their new credit score that they couldn't give two fucks about your experience on their platform. When the SEC comes in and tells them they MUST do things to protect against A, B, C, and D — even though A, B, C, and D matter nothing to the end user — they are going to choose the alternative that fucks you the most, rather than protect your experience as a consumer. The whole TOS thing and the claim that "HAHA you don't have to use our service, we'll be fine!" is kind of bullshit, because all of these companies are struggling right now and laying off people en masse because the general population has simply given up on any prospect of engagement with these firms. I am just astonished. When does it end? I remember being a kid and making a purchase took literally minutes. Why am I spending my entire weekend — of so few I get — attempting to purchase something that is supposed to be the future of transactions? Has this space really devalued this much that I cannot even purchase bitcoin with my dollars? How the fuck can I build a diversified portfolio if I can't even spend my USD? I am at a loss for words, truly. I am just infuriated. I'd rather Western Union the sketchiest offshore service out there than spend another hour attempting to purchase Bitcoin in 2026 using Moonpay, just to be met with an "Unknown Error" code at the end of sharing my SSN and facial biometrics. At this point I'd buy BTC from a guy in a trench coat in a parking lot. I am so tired of this shit and am moving my money as far outside this ecosystem as possible. Thanks for reading my rant. I'm going to go spend the remainder of my weekend watching Wall-E with my GF instead of spending another hour trying to buy BTC with fiat. Fuck this decade. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

F4NT4SYF00TB4LLF4N

As BTC becomes more adopted, it increases in its value, and thus becomes less subject to price swings (and growth potential).

Deeds2020

BTC is fungible currency. So is USD and Iranian Rial. Demand for mediums of exchange are fluid. If someone somewhere uses it for war, or rent/own costs, or food, or cigarettes, or going on vacation, it doesnt matter. They are competing currencies that people use to buy things. If you meant to type: "its sad that people spend currency on war." Then yeah. We aren't disagreeing about that. I don't know you or care about your background. Nothing personal. I'm sure you're great. I just saw your contribution to the conversion was trying to retreats using bitcoin with war profiteering. Bro if you think of life like that, they just use money to buy and sell metal and wood and explosives and transportation and fuel. You should go to every thread and tell them that they are just tangential war profiteers.

user_name_checks_out

Sounds like he fucked up too. If he owns multiple Lamborghinis and Ferraris then he is burning through that 16 BTC pretty fast.

Ge_Yo

Self-custody comes first. What’s evolving now is how BTC can remain in your control while still taking part in on-chain finance, with TBVs moving in that direction through native collateral use cases and lending and borrowing.

chubs66

Second rule of BTC: there's a decent chance you don't have the skills or discipline to manage your own wallet and will lose your BTC to lost passwords or hacking. Pick your poison.

blaziken8x

General consensus is that mining is not worth it in this day and age unless you have the latest crypto miners. (10 years ago with old laptops and graphics cards yes, today no) In my opinion, the best way to make money in crypto is to get a part time job or a side hustle and use that money to accumulate BTC. Basically, bring in money from other sources and buy BTC (you can also look into dollar cost averaging, a lot of people seem to be doing it)

justforgigs96

For any new product in the crypto industry, initial cautious cynicism is justified. I'm a solo engineer who loves BTC & initially built this originally for myself and some family/friends, got enough good feedback that I figured the broader community should know it exists. Yeah I use AI tools like any engineer in 2026, but the product, the thesis, and the post are mine. For the majority, just HODLing is more than enough to win with BTC. I'm just spotlighting a secondary utility of the asset for people who want to squeeze a bit more out of their tax situation while they wait.

justforgigs96

I'd like to walk through these with you one by one in more detail: Regarding "deduction" vs "credit" language - I've updated the sentence to align with this in the post so that this term is clear and unambiguous for anyone in the community reading. I think that's reasonable - although the notion of the rest being locked in carryover is underselling it (because we all will sell some of our VOO, Google, or BTC or whatever eventually at some point and trigger capital gains) so the economic value is there. Alternatively if we never sell lots with capital gains, and pass off to our heirs they get a step up in basis and the harvested loss is effectively free money. Next, you'd cited IRC Section 7701(o) - this is where there's quite a bit of nuance. It sounds like you're referring to the two-prong test (and questioning whether BTC TLH violates them). It's important to point out here that (as a result of Patel v Commissioner) the IRS would need to first prove "Why should ESD apply to a straightforward property sale?". And the answer is -> It shouldn't because this is a standard realization event in a system where Congress explicitly allowed it. So although the IRS has the authority to challenge transactions lacking substance, the combination of the Patel relevancy threshold and the objective financial reality of exchange fees and BTC's huge volatility makes a successful ESD challenge against a retail investor executing straightforward TLH highly unlikely under current law. Now to be clear - with former President Biden's "Build Back Better" bill and some others, this was raised up to close the loophole as you said. And if that day comes, this kind of software loses its core relevance/value proposition & I'll be looking to solve other problems in the BTC space. Lastly with regard to the security risk that you're citing this is worth addressing because it's a legitimate concern for any tool in this category. Firstly the user controls the entire private repo (not me or any outside party). They can audit every single line of code or have a trusted engineer of their choice audit every line of code. Their keys will never leave their own infrastructure. Next, the idea off having funds drained is architecturally infeasible. Reason being - on the self-hosted version where an API key is created, permissions are set at the time of creation (not possible retroactively) and if you select read only permissions, the exchange cannot execute any sell orders on your behalf via that API key, and certainly not withdraw funds or send to outside parties. If users select full execution mode, they select (deliberately very specific) permissions, which allow only for A) Read permissions, B) Sell & Rebuy permissions, C) We say very explicitly what NOT to select (e.g a withdrawal capability) to prevent any hypothetical security threat. Additionally some exchanges like Strike don't even allow selecting withdrawals as an option on your API keys creation. As for 'lead gen' - guilty as charged my friend. I built something and I think it's useful. That's the whole post.

EcstaticCell1511

Yes I love the smear campaigns against BTC keeps prices low.

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Post is by: Own-Net-9076 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sjng2l/a_summary_of_the_cryptocurrency_market_over_the/ Crypto Market Summary for the past week (April 5-12, 2026): The market experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical news. Prices fell at the beginning of the week due to US-Iran tensions, then surged thanks to ceasefire news, boosting the total market cap by approximately $100 billion in a single session. • Bitcoin (BTC): Fluctuated around $68-72k, closing the week up about 4-7%, reaching a 3-week high (\~$71-72k) before a slight correction. • Ethereum (ETH): Increased more strongly than BTC (approximately 6-8%), rising from \~$2100 to over $2200-2280, holding support at the 0.236 Fibonacci level. • Most altcoins were in the red (75-80% of the top 50 coins declined), altcoins were weaker than BTC/ETH. Whales were less active, with retail investors buying in. The BTC ETF had positive inflows in March but slowed down in April. Overall: The week saw a short rally thanks to risk-on from ceasefire, but volume was low, and sentiment was cautious due to macro factors (US CPI) and geopolitics. Forecast for next week (April 13-19, 2026): The market will remain sideways/consolidate around the current level, heavily dependent on: • US economic data (CPI, inflation). • Middle East peace progress (Strait of Hormuz). • US regulatory news (Clarity Act). Positive scenario: BTC holds above 70k → tests 75k, ETH continues to underperform thanks to DeFi/L2 catalysts. Negative scenario: If bad macro news → pullback to support at 65-68k BTC. In general, many analysts predict April will still be difficult (Q1 was the worst quarter in many years), but there are signs of long-term accumulation from institutional factors. We recommend monitoring volume and major news events, and avoiding high leverage. Data is for reference only; the crypto market is very risky! My Homepage: More Videos I wish everyone success and the awareness of the importance of taking responsibility for themselves. Thank you! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

xcommon

you seem pretty histrionic, tbh. It took wall street and the establishment 20 years to figure out how they could use BTC as a vehicle to get rich to the detriment of their customers. The people could have read the wp and adopted it in the mean time. The price of their ignorance is being late to the game. Everyone get BTC at the price they deserve.

southernwx

That would imply there’s a 99% chance that BTC maintains a nominal value of 60k or more for the next 3 years … And further, OP suggests the nominal value won’t fall below 60k in the next 30 years at 99% success which is more incredible. This is incredibly suspect and frankly if the market was 99% sure their downside was only to 60k, it would be more expensive today.

Big-Finding2976

If you buy 1 BTC now and sell $20,000 worth of it a year there's a chance you'll have no BTC left in three years.

MathematicianKey6222

Why should i? BTC etf is way more comfortable. No Need for seedphrase no fear of losing Everything

JerkyJunkie

The flash drive could be a ledger, it’s the most well-known/marketed cold storage device. So most of the public not involved with bitcoin, just might assume it’s just a flash drive for bitcoin. Just the easiest way to make this all understandable for normal people, through their comedic writing. Without losing too much timing with the nuance of BTC, political correctness lol.

SousChefRyGuy

Maybe that’s exactly what they want? The shady pricks move all sorts of money all types of ways. This, could be exactly what they want. This is clear speculation on all of us because none of us were there and created BTC. Interesting and fun to do though.

Boring-Bus-3743

😂 etfs and strategy are buy 5-15x the daily issuance of BTC. If demand stays the same that will double in a few years with the next halving. Unless they are off loading millions of BTC it would be hard to "crash" the price

Fiach_Dubh

drop the "BTC" it's cleaner

InvestAISavvy

The mean reversion piece is what gets me. In equities, buying at the top absolutely destroys your safe withdrawal rate for decades. The fact that BTC's power law growth is steep enough that mean reversion closes the gap between peak buyers and bottom buyers within about two years is a genuinely interesting finding. I've never seen anyone model it that way. The one thing I'd stress test harder is the inflation assumption. You're using 7% cost of living growth as your base case, which matches M2 expansion historically. But we're in a world right now where CPI just printed 3.3% with energy driving most of it and the Fed stuck at 3.5-3.75% debating hikes again. If real inflation stays structurally elevated above the 2% target for the next decade, that 7% assumption might actually be conservative.

Flash-Ranger

0.1 BTC will not fund a lifetime in the US, Germany, or Spain in 25 years. Mathematical projections invalidate this premise. VanEck models project Bitcoin at 2.9 million dollars by 2050. At this peak valuation, 0.1 BTC equals 290,000 dollars. A 2.5 percent annualized inflation rate degrades current fiat purchasing power by 46 percent over 25 years. Total financial independence in these jurisdictions currently requires 1.5 to 2 million dollars in capital. Adjusted for inflation, the requirement by 2050 is 2.7 to 3.6 million dollars. A 290,000 dollar nominal value functions solely as a localized cash buffer or partial real estate equity. It cannot act as a perpetual yield-generating asset for living expenses. To achieve a 3 million dollar purchasing power threshold by 2050, the requisite accumulation is 1.03 BTC under the 2.9 million dollar baseline, or 3.0 BTC under a conservative 1 million dollar model.

Flash-Ranger

Iran’s move to take BTC and USDT for Strait of Hormuz tolls—we’re talking $2 million per tanker—has basically nuked the idea of "anonymous" crypto for anyone in the shipping industry. Since the blockchain is public, OFAC is already blacklisting every address linked to these payments. If you’re a ship operator and you pay that toll, your wallet is permanently flagged. Here is how it’s actually playing out: 1. Automated Blacklisting: Major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance use Chainalysis to track every "hop" a coin takes. If you try to deposit BTC that originated from an Iranian state wallet, it gets frozen instantly. You don't just lose the coins; you get hit with a "Source of Wealth" audit that can take months to clear, if ever. 2. The Price Gap: We’re seeing a "two-tier" Bitcoin market. "Clean" BTC trades at market price, while "Hormuz BTC" is trading at a 10% to 30% discount on the gray market because it’s effectively toxic to the regulated financial system. 3. Corporate Suicide: For companies, it’s not just about the coins. If a firm knowingly accepts tainted BTC, they face secondary sanctions. That means the US can cut that company off from the entire dollar-based banking system. Bitcoin is still technically spendable, but the legacy financial world is successfully bifurcating the supply. It’s no longer just about owning Bitcoin; it’s about the specific history of the UTXOs you hold. If they touched Iran, they’re radioactive.

apurpleflyingcar

exactly the right question. to verify on-chain you'd need to correlate AIS passage timestamps with large BTC transactions,, looking for $1-2M settlements within minutes of a vessel clearing the strait. chainalysis and TRM labs are the only ones with the tooling to do this properly. the problem is iran likely uses mixing or intermediate wallets, and may prefer usdt over btc despite the public announcement. that's why the model stays a model for now

InvestAISavvy

Honestly the macro setup for BTC right now is weird. Consumer sentiment just hit 47.6 — literally the lowest reading ever recorded — and CPI came in at 3.3% with energy driving most of it. Normally that's the "hedge with BTC" argument but instead it's trading like a risk asset tied to ceasefire headlines. Every time diplomatic progress looks good BTC runs, every time talks break down it sells off. The social engagement numbers on BTC are massive right now but they're almost entirely driven by the geopolitical narrative, not adoption or on-chain stuff. Until the Iran situation actually resolves, BTC is basically an oil proxy with extra volatility.

TheresNoSecondBest

That's an BTC IOU, mate.

Bulky_Dingo_4706

I guess I should sell my BTC ETF.

This_Discussion126

Yeah I understand you would do it that way. But still 20k over 12 months, is still a big chunk of 1 BTC if the price is at the low end of the power model. Maybe my brain isn't mathing properly, but I don't know how you can have: "after 30 years of withdrawals, you still hold over 95% of your bitcoin."

Aggressive-Permit317

Iran straight up accepting BTC for Hormuz transit fees is low-key massive. This isn’t just another country ‘considering’ crypto, it’s actual state-level use as payment. Makes you wonder how fast this shifts the whole reserve narrative. Anyone tracking how this might ripple into prices short-term?

fajarsis02

Iran, Russia and North Korea are already blocked from SWIFT. Previously they proposed to be paid in Yuan for the tolls, but China felt unease with the proposal, so they switch to BTC. When the US also blocked China from SWIFT, that will be among the triggering event for BTC flying to Saturn..

ScholarPrize1335

The real annualized return on BTC over the last 5 years is 3.4% a year. Tell what beta value and standard deviation you would tolerate for an asset averaging that return? Your spewing technical analysis when there is zero evidence that it actually works. The more absurd the claim the more desperate the person making it appears. Good investments don't need to be sold...

FromThePits

Any estimates on how much BTC such a rig mines on a daily basis?

JerryCalzone

I'm holding on to a tiny bit of BTC and hope that at some point it gets more valuable - but one thing will never happen despite the price going down: it will never become less unless i sell it.

SenditSahil

never thought so many usecases would be there, just love being part of this changing new world of $BTC

Apart_Bear_5103

Oh, transacting in BTC makes value decrease. Right, I forgot.

apurpleflyingcar

Fair point on yuan volume,, Bloomberg confirmed the first documented payments were actually in yuan via Kunlun Bank. But the reason Bitcoin is significant here isn't volume, it's that yuan still routes through CIPS which China controls. BTC is the only option with zero intermediary, no bank, no government, nobody to pressure. That's why Iran's parliament specifically codified 'digital currencies' in the Strait of Hormuz Management Plan alongside yuan. Both are used, BTC is the hedge.

Backrus

First of all, yuan or BTC. Now check countries with yuan reserves vs BTC reserves. It's just that simple.

apurpleflyingcar

# 8 — KNOWN LIMITATIONS * ●**AIS data gaps:** Free tier AIS may miss 20-40% of vessel activity. Actual passage counts may be higher than displayed. * ●**Toll payment assumption:** Not every vessel that transits pays the toll. Some may refuse, use alternative routes, or have pre-arranged agreements. * ●**BTC exclusivity assumption:** Iran accepts Chinese yuan and USDT in addition to Bitcoin. The BTC wallet estimate assumes BTC payment only — actual crypto holdings may differ significantly. * ●**War premium model:** The war premium calculation is a proprietary model based on public data. It is not a market-quoted figure and should not be used for trading decisions. * ●**Sanctions jurisdiction:** Only US OFAC sanctions are tracked. EU, UK, and UN sanctions are not included. * ●**News sentiment:** Keyword-based scoring is a simplified proxy for geopolitical sentiment. It does not account for context, irony, or nuance. * ●**Historical BTC prices:** Historical daily prices sourced from CoinGecko API. Minor discrepancies possible due to UTC timezone handling. * ●**Iran GDP and military budget:** Hardcoded estimates based on IMF data. Actual figures classified or disputed.

apurpleflyingcar

# 5 — IRG WALLET ESTIMATOR **IMPORTANT:** This is a mathematical estimate, NOT blockchain data. No actual IRGC wallet addresses have been identified or tracked. daily_toll_btc = Σ(passage.toll_btc) for each day cumulative_btc = Σ(daily_toll_btc) from April 1, 2026 to today cumulative_usd = cumulative_btc × current_btc_price TRACKING START DATE: April 1, 2026 Basis: First confirmed Bloomberg report of IRGC toll collection **ASSUMPTIONS:** * ●All detected tanker passages paid the toll (reality: some may not) * ●US/Israel-linked vessels excluded (per FT reporting) * ●Toll rate constant at $1.00/barrel (may vary by nationality tier) * ●BTC used as payment medium (yuan and USDT also accepted per reports) **CONFIDENCE: LOW-MEDIUM** The actual accumulated amount could be significantly higher or lower depending on actual payment rates and unreported passages. Wallet ranking labels (e.g. "Significant Holder") are model-estimated categories, not verified classifications.

apurpleflyingcar

There's real irony here. Iran chose Bitcoin specifically because the US can't freeze it ,,, unlike USDT where Tether already froze $3.3B in IRGC-linked wallets at US request. So from Iran's perspective, BTC is genuinely more sovereign than dollar-pegged stablecoins. But your point stands from the other side: the US gets a permanent public ledger of every sanctioned transaction. Chainalysis, TRM Labs, and others sell exactly that intelligence to OFAC. So yeah ,, Bitcoin gave Iran a payment rail the US can't block, and simultaneously gave the US a paper trail they'd never get with cash or yuan. Who wins? Probably depends on whether enforcement or evasion matters more in that specific conflict.

apurpleflyingcar

Haha I'm not sure that's a real term but if you mean how I reconcile the gap between estimated toll revenue and actual BTC flows — honest answer is I don't, and the methodology page says exactly that. The model assumes every detected tanker paid, which is probably an overestimate. Real payment rate is unknown. Thanks for the kind words though!

Fafetto

Credo in quello che dici! Ci proverò e fra qualche anno ti dirò! 🍀🤞🏻 Comunque vada sarà Una vincita Però fiscalmente per me conviene ETF in BTC

clem_the_man

Iran will not earn a single BTC from tolls

IBAN-IBON64

Si tu stresses pour 1000 euros en BTC tu n'es pas fait pour investir en BTC ..ou autres crypto . Le BTC c'est pour le long terme 5 ou 10 ans ... Hodl et revient dans quelques années

Glad-External8640

Someone says BTC is a scam....do you believe that? Never trust what people say...... Iran is technically advanced and try to Google it

FunWithSkooma

nowadays the best way to have a self custody wallet with lightning is be using the spark protocol, the only wallets I know that have the spark protocol are: Wallet of Satoshi Cake Wallet Blitz Muun Phoenix I only used Spark on Wallet of Satoshi and Cake Wallet, both were simple to setup. I made a new wallet using Cake and it immediately activated lightning, then I could import the seed to Wallet of Satoshi and both were in sync, if I receive/send BTC through lightning from WoS, Cake Wallet would sync my funds and vice versa.

SeriousGains

Now how much BTC do you need to never deplete at 1x the floor price and also beat inflation?

Necessary-Drummer801

Because math. If fiat continues to be printed (while bitcoin isnt), and more people want to buy and hold, BTC is on a trajectory to infinity

FnAardvark

Nice model. Now let's go back to the real world where Iran has currently accepted zero BTC in tolls. Your timing is extra great, because now the USA has blocked the strait and says they won't allow any ships to pass that have paid an illegal toll.

Advocaatx

So you’re basically saying that with my curremt DCA (about $1000 a month) I will never reach 1 BTC… that’s kinda depressing math, tbh…

kisscardano

One day, 1 BTC could equal 1 supertanker.

F4NT4SYF00TB4LLF4N

The one major difference/flaw I see here is the original 4% rule was determined from nearly 70 years of data. BTC has only been around since Jan 2009. Since Jan 200, the Sp500 has averaged 14-15% annual returns, which is about 50% higher than the ~100 year historical average of about 10%. Meaning since Bitcoins inception, the market has been substantially better and this comparison would be akin to someone studying the Sp500 the last 16, coming up with maybe an 8% withdrawal rate rule of thumb. Now you might then say "yeah that's still 250k to withdraw 20k vs 71k in BTC today. Yes, but this also fails to account for the fact that BTC is still an early adoption asset. Where it's also a bit odd is let's say adoption happens fully and price per BTC hits 1 million per coin. You would have only a 2% withdrawal. It's an interesting exercise, but unfortunately seems to have very little practical relevance. At least to me. Happy to discuss further

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Post is by: ObjectiveTreacle4548 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sjey0l/is_bitcoin_heading_to_88k_the_charts_say_yes_but/ Honestly, if you just look at the technicals, the path to $88,000 looks pretty clear. The consolidation phase seems to be over, and the structural strength is definitely there for the next leg up. The only real headache right now is the geopolitical tension; any major flare-up could easily kill the "risk-on" mood and force a temporary sell-off. ​The main thing to watch is whether Bitcoin can finally smash through these key resistance levels. If it does, we’ll likely see Ethereum catch a bid as capital starts rotating out of stables. Also, names like MicroStrategy and Coinbase are basically trading like BTC on steroids right now—if the king moves, they’ll likely fly even higher. ​The most likely play is a grind up toward $85k over the next couple of months, though it’s going to be a bumpy ride. Just don't get too comfortable: if macro conditions sour or inflation throws us a curveball, a retest of the $65k-$68k area isn't out of the question. As long as we hold above $70,000, the trend is our friend, but as always, do your own homework before jumping in. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

MooseLoot

The fact that “deep bear” is half of trend is ludicrous. The fact that you then say “deep bull” is *more than* double trend is even more ludicrous. “Deep bear” is that quantum computing somehow messes up the encryption at some point and it gets real ugly. If “Deep bull” (not that this is ever relevant for projecting minimum safe strategies) is more than double one of the fastest growing assets, you’re really blowing smoke up people’s butts. I say this as a person with actual BTC and EFT BTC as a significant component of my retirement accounts. I’d be thrilled with just the trend from when it was cheap, acknowledging that as it gets bigger, that level of growth becomes progressively more difficult because there is only so much money in the world. It can keep on trend for several years- but it can’t for 30, because it would exceed the amount of wealth in the world

Total_Cod_1111

I appreciate this comment, but maybe I should add some context. 5 years ago that 10k investment was a really big deal for me. I'm 38 and have 5 kids living in BC and really struggling to save any thing these days. I have nothing in my tfsa but I have 100k (Cad) worth of taxable bitcoin. Selling the BTC today which is in my wife's name (stay at home mom) would cost very little on gains but in a couple years she may be back at work. The BTC could be sold and max out one of our TFSA for tax free future gains. I realize they're are many other eligible investment options but at our stage of life the only way we can afford to fund the tfsa is by selling btc

Intrepid-Gas7872

Easier math is, if you have 1 BTC you can sell $1,000 a month of it for life.

ColdAdministrative54

He is assuming bitcoin will follow power law trend with the absolute floor being a fraction of the power law trend number. One thing to add here is that the longer you wait, under the same model 1 BTC will give much higher yearly withdrawals than 20k per year. Also given how speculative and volatile it is, I'd wait before starting withdrawals anytime soon. That being said, its an interesting conclusion. Much higher safe withdrawals, assuming one believes power law, than I was expecting.

TheresNoSecondBest

Yes. I mean that's at least how I read it. This also works both ways. **If you start buying now and spend $20,000 a year, there's a 99% chance that you'll never reach 1BTC.**

Psychic_Man

That's because BTC is nearly at the floor right this moment. We're in the bear market. It doesn't stay at the floor for very long. You're cherry picking the lowest low possible.

Mission-Ant-9258

So, what you are saying is that if I have 1 BTC I can sell 20k USD a year over the course of 30 years and not ran out of BTC until the 30 year mark, like a DCA out strategy. Is that correct?

TheRadishBros

Hey Sat Daddy, it’d be cool to see you do a video takedown of the video from “How Money Works” about a month ago; he’s a huge YouTube channel, and his uninformed takes on BTC are quite shocking considering the size of his audience.

WolfenBrine

Get on cash app and if you buy $10 in BTC you get $5 matched free instantly. Have a nice day OP!

Blockchainauditor

Check out “beer money” crypto faucets, like Cointiply or Faucet Gamers. Answer a few surveys, earn $5 of BTC, send to your wallet. One issue with BTC is transaction fees, which are based on UTXOs and not dollar value - it will cost more than 20 cents to send 20 cents. Can you test your idea with 20 cents of BCH? That’s a lot cheaper to send.

wgnragency

Looks like a great time to stock up on BTC!

iamamoa

It’s always foolish to sell your BTC in a panic but it would be even more foolish now since Iran is accepting toll payments in Bitcoin

Oaker_at

Are you guys still talking about those confiscated BTC as if that was an active investment of the German gov??

OccasionalXerophile

BTC yes, moon no

infernal_celery

Hard agree. I’d already read that paper and am less concerned about the harvest now, decrypt later attacks. They are a risk, but I don’t think it’s likely that on Day One of the required quantum computing capability there’s going to be a mass proliferation of quantum computers of sufficient capabilities into the hands of bad actors. We’re likely to learn that the capable computers exist before any mass decryptions and thefts happen. There’s time to migrate to new SegWit wallets (if nothing better has been identified), and there’s time for emergency rollouts. Existential threats tend to galvanise people.  10-11% being in legacy wallets is sad but ultimately it’s just a big shrug long term if BTC survives by other means. I wonder how many legacy whale wallets will actually be targeted though? Most place where you can cash out BTC find on-chain tracing quite easy now and funds that have been sourced from known hacked wallets are almost certainly going to be flagged for higher AML scrutiny. That’s not perfect, but it’s another obstacle for a thief to overcome, so it reduces the extent to which a direct decryption attack is going to be effective. “Received from a legacy BTC address within [x] hops / since block [y] is probably going to be a new AML risk flag, and if it’s hard to cash out then is it worth really using a (probably expensive) quantum computer just to do the theft?  This makes the mempool attacks seem the biggest problem IMO because they’re going to be hard to detect and can affect all wallet types, deterring adoption. 

inadyttap

735 days untill the next BTC block reward halving. Stack sats! 

DRAGULA85

Speak for yourself Some people have 55k for a BTC Some people have 55k for a Tesla Some people have 60k for a Rolex watch Just because you’re below the average doesn’t mean there is a huge demographic that can afford it The issue is most people don’t care about Bitcoin (yet)

jkl2035

Think the migration path for a Bank is more straight forward than for BTC, wish it would be different

Z4ZEICH

Bro not happy to say that , but it’s maybe biggest mistake in your life. So many people loose their houses with this investment. Keep in mind that your property u just change to HIGH risk investment, anyway good luck for you ! Also keep in mind that if you not sell you still not loose so if BTC will crashes tomorrow to 5k dont sell. 

bennyb0y

if banks encryption fails, they shut off the server and walla your money is “safe”. What happens if BTC is cracked?

stanley_fatmax

I get it, but I don't see how that's any different from their use cases of the past. If there's any significant movement to BTC, it'll be because of the hype around this, not because there's any new significant demand from the freight industry.

KristianME

Iran will be bimbed through shreds. There is no way they get a chance to charge BTC for passing strait.

PumbainJapan

Maybe they start mining again when BTC price moves higher.

GeoSystemsDeveloper

It may be decades away, but they need to something to calm down the market and other alts chipping away from BTC dominance

Romanizer

Anywhere between 250-3,000 BTC based on Kaiko Research, depending on exchange and market liquidity.

Mammoth-Birthday-437

the short covering is a good signal but i wouldnt read too much into it in isolation. macro products like ETF shorts getting unwound usually means the big players think the worst is behind us, but it also means they already captured most of the downside profit. crypto tends to follow equities with a lag so if stocks bounce from here BTC probably follows within a few days. keep an eye on the options skew too, thats where the real sentiment shows

FriendsMade_MeDoIt

From what I’ve seen, most people I know just end up using wrapped BTC on other chains instead of “true” BTC swaps. Like they’ll bridge into wBTC or something on Ethereum or another chain, then use a regular DEX from there. Not perfect if you’re trying to stay fully native Bitcoin though. That’s kinda the tradeoff everyone in my circle keeps running into. Curious if anyone’s actually found a smooth way without touching a centralized step at some point.

RubxCuban

Well it’s fungible, right? There are 10,000,000 Sats in a BTC. Some day maybe we start talking about asset value in Sats

Legitimate_Cry_5194

It means for BTC's price you know.

Money-Tip-7543

Can you give me .1345 so I can finally hit 1BTC, thanks in advance my fellow Canadian

yoneroyamagachi

Around 20 bucks. Because thats all I have in my savings account and I’ve set a buy order at $1000 for $20 of BTC. /s

Doritos707

Like maybe 100k BTC at once? 200k would for sure cause a move

Character-Resist-961

Yes this is the right way to use BTC in the first place but if govs intervene to mess it up It is technically feasible to remove the trace of a tainted BTC. The blockchain is a curse and a mercy at the same time.

Available_Win5204

This is all based on 1 random quote too. BTC maxis are some of the most desperate in all of reddit. And that is saying something.

HumanNo109850364048

Here’s from ChatGpt: Short answer: Bitcoin becomes “safe” from quantum attacks only after it fully migrates to quantum-resistant cryptography before large-scale quantum computers can break today’s signatures—and users actually move their funds to the new scheme. Here’s the breakdown. ⸻ 🔐 1) What exactly is the quantum threat? Bitcoin relies on Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECDSA). A sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s Algorithm could: • Derive a private key from a public key • Steal funds from exposed addresses (especially after you spend once) 👉 Important nuance: • Funds in addresses that have never revealed a public key (e.g., unused addresses) are much safer for now ⸻ 🧩 2) What must happen for Bitcoin to be “quantum safe”? A) Upgrade the signature scheme (protocol level) Bitcoin must replace ECDSA with post-quantum cryptography, such as: • Lattice-based (e.g., CRYSTALS-Dilithium) • Hash-based (e.g., XMSS) This requires a consensus upgrade (soft fork or hard fork) in Bitcoin. 👉 This is the single most critical step ⸻ B) Widespread user migration Even if the protocol upgrades: • Users must move funds to new quantum-safe addresses If they don’t: • Old addresses remain vulnerable • Attackers could still steal coins from “legacy” outputs 👉 This is the most underestimated risk ⸻ C) Timing: upgrade BEFORE quantum capability arrives The network must upgrade: • Before quantum computers can break 256-bit ECC in practical time If not: • Attackers could scan the blockchain and steal exposed funds at scale ⸻ D) Defense during transition (intermediate protections) Bitcoin may adopt interim strategies like: • Encouraging address reuse avoidance • Faster transaction confirmation to reduce attack window • Possibly hybrid signatures (classical + post-quantum) ⸻ ⚖️ 3) How far away is the real threat? Today’s quantum computers: • Cannot break Bitcoin • Are far from the millions of stable qubits required Estimates: • ~10–20+ years (very uncertain) 👉 So: • This is a serious but not immediate threat ⸻ 🧠 4) What “safe” actually means (realistically) Bitcoin is “quantum safe” when: ✔ Protocol supports quantum-resistant signatures ✔ Majority of funds are migrated ✔ Old vulnerable outputs are negligible ✔ Attack cost > potential reward ⸻ 🔍 5) Key insight most people miss The biggest risk is NOT the tech—it’s coordination. Bitcoin can technically upgrade. But: • It requires global consensus • Millions of users must act • Lost wallets (millions of BTC) can’t migrate 👉 Those dormant coins could become prime targets ⸻ 🧭 Practical takeaway For Bitcoin to survive quantum threats: 1. Core developers implement post-quantum signatures 2. Community agrees to upgrade 3. Users actively move funds to new addresses 4. This all happens before quantum breakthrough

Ashembir

Always in your last line is a strong sentence. Imthere may just as well come a day that the values flip. I still think personally that any raw BTC mined but not passed through any cex will be valued higher.

Rumbletastic

This is honestly the first I've heard of this. I thought BTC was immune to regulation?

Fit_Palpitation8243

The writing was on wall when mining pools started censoring transactions in first place. We already seeing this split happening with some exchanges flagging certain UTXOs as "high risk" - it's basically creating two classes of bitcoin without anyone admitting it. Building at protocol level is probably only real option left. Sure, sovereign BTC might trade at discount, but that's still better than having completely neutered version that governments can control. At least we'd preserve the actual utility even if price suffers. The moment we accept compliance fork as "real" bitcoin, we basically handed over the keys to traditional financial system anyway.

meeleen223

One cant have enough BTC and MOON

justforgigs96

Just added this for you bro! For your question - there's a few layers: \- If you have a W-2 job, you have $3000 in losses directly offset per year for doing nothing (which is a few hundred back in your pocket). \- If next year BTC increases to 90k you're not paying taxes on anything unless you sell & have capital gains. If you are someone who is holding a decent stack at huge gains, I would not advise selling unless absolutely necessary. \- So if you don't sell, then you basically have a tax asset that carries forward indefinitely forever that you can use if you ever do sell or if you want to rotate out of other weaker assets (for me I had a big Amazon position for many years that I wanted to rotate out of & this helped there).

rahcambacon

Because the $30k loss fully offsets the $10k gain. You pay $0 in tax, carry forward the remaining $20k loss which you can use the next time you have a gain. You can do this until you use up the entire $30k loss. BTC has no wash sale rules like stocks.

SVPLAYZZ

the quantum thing is super interesting with BTC not having quite an "active dev team" pushing out updates and being open source (code), how is the blockchain and the security infrastructure going to be modified for that purpose?

DontJealousMe

Couldn’t say Iran, make a new crypto currency and trade in that instead of BTC

Salam_Alayk

BTC Barrel Trading Coin 🚢⛽️🪙 Actually, thinking about this. Iran has a state controlled BTC mining industry. The US holds the most BTC of all the countries in the world. The Us gets privite companies to speculate on aquiring btc while iran has been mining for years by now with cheap energy. In the scenario that we are in now, if iran start imposing a fee in BTC both countries would tremendously benefit. Pretty much creates a constant demand of BTC. 2 millions $ per boat, not a small number. DJT wanted to make the US the world capital of crypto. Laws are being discussed. BTC is a commodity. How convenient? Probably not going to happen but it is very interesting to think about what's the game being played

powerguy134

If USD becomes worthless, I can promise you, you will have a lot bigger problems on your hands then caring about how much BTC is worth. I’d imagine things on your mind in that scenario if you are still alive would be “what am I going to eat today and how am I going to hunt it” or “should I build my own shelter for the night or shack up in an abandoned building?”

InvestAISavvy

Same. The "cycle" people drive me nuts. BTC is up almost 9% in the last week on the back of a ceasefire nobody's sure will hold, Iran is apparently using bitcoin for oil tanker settlements now, and social sentiment is running around 80% positive. None of that fits neatly into a 4-year halving chart. The thing that's different this time is the macro backdrop. Consumer sentiment just hit the lowest reading since 1952. Gas above $4. Inflation expectations spiking. And yet BTC is sitting at $73K acting like a chaos hedge instead of dumping with risk assets. That decoupling is either the most bullish thing I've seen in years or a trap. Haven't decided yet.