BTC

devCheckingIn

Frustrated that all the FUD work has only got BTC down to $60k. They are trying to rush the bear market low and get their short positions to print big. Now they will have to go back to the drawing board and come up with better FUD since the Saylor story is losing steam.

devCheckingIn

Yeah, it's just the psychology of FUD that rules bear markets. Miners have to sell (a massive amount of) BTC all the time just to pay their bills to keep the lights on and run their companies. Nobody cares. Saylor has to sell a substantially less amount of BTC to pay some dividends? Panic sell! I mean I do get it, but I'm just saying... try to understand the psychological warfare TPTB are waging on traders. We have to discern between Saylor selling to pay some bills vs. selling because he doesn't believe in BTC anymore and is getting out of the treasury company business altogether.

poundsdpound

100,000 to the order of a 1 mil. That is a different kind of scale from the jump between $10 to $100. Just saying. Yes, arguably there are a lot more people interested in participating in BTC now that it has gone over the 110,000 barrier. However, think of all your friends who have got $10 to spare over something they view as a 'silly' side quest vs how many people you can actually name who have got ten thousand times that amount. To spare. Imagine lots of jars, 10,000 of them, all containing $10 each. And they have this to spare

Ok_Voice_659

I will sell when the penultimate BTC gets mined in the year 2140

devCheckingIn

He has $50 billion in BTC on the balance sheet and $6.5 billion in debt. What bank wouldn't be willing to refinance? Unless BTC goes to 0...

Remarkable_Sleep_944

Because Reddit is compromised. They have 1000s of Ai FUD bots telling people to buy stocks instead of BTC, and useless posts mocking people who have faith in BTC in th long run. It all started after Reddit sold it's soul for the IPO, and became slaves to the big banks.

devCheckingIn

It's just a vehicle for increasing BTC exposure. That means MSTR goes up more than BTC in bull markets and down more in bear markets. An ETF will only give you 1-to-1 exposure to BTC whereas MSTR is accretive, increasing BTC per share by purchasing BTC with stock issuance.

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Post is by: AIautoagent1 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ugcog4/are_accelerating_cbdc_pilots_changing_how_we/ The part that should have every crypto holder paying attention right now isn’t price action — it’s how quickly CBDC pilots are moving from “theoretical” to “live infrastructure” in the world’s biggest economies. If you look at the Atlantic Council CBDC tracker and recent central bank comms, we’re past the experimentation phase. China’s e-CNY is already in large-scale pilot with cross-border tests, the ECB is in the “preparation phase” for a digital euro, India is expanding both wholesale and retail pilots, and over 20 G20 members are in advanced stages. The BIS has multiple cross-border CBDC projects (mBridge, Dunbar, Icebreaker) explicitly aimed at reducing frictions in dollar-based settlement. The Fed is lagging on a retail CBDC but is clearly building rails (FedNow) and running ongoing research; meanwhile, Congress is debating the policy issues, not the existence of a digital dollar per se. This isn’t conspiracy — it’s public policy architecture for the next monetary regime. Macro-wise, this intersects directly with de-dollarization chatter and institutional Bitcoin adoption. A small group of countries are openly exploring CBDCs as a way to reduce dependence on the US-centric system and SWIFT, while the US leans on sanctions more aggressively. At the same time, US institutions are normalizing BTC exposure via ETFs and regulated custodians. My read: CBDCs centralize control over payment rails and data, while BTC/crypto become the parallel, non-sovereign collateral layer. CBDCs can absolutely crowd out weaker private stablecoins, but they also legitimize “digital bearer assets” as a category. In a world of programmable, surveilled fiat, the argument for a censorship-resistant, supply-capped asset like BTC only gets stronger, especially if fiscal dominance keeps pushing real yields negative over the long term. Positioning-wise, I assume CBDCs are coming in some form. That makes self-custody non-negotiable for me: with CBDCs accelerating, I keep everything off exchanges in self-custody on a Ledger — the whole point of crypto is the exit: https://shop.ledger.com/?r=earning-hq&utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=ledger. For regulated on-ramps and ETF exposure, I still think Coinbase is the most compliant US ramp: https://coinbase.com/join/earning-hq?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=coinbase. I treat CBDC risk like a slow-moving regulatory and technological regime shift, not an overnight ban — so I’m overweight BTC, careful with KYC trails, and I assume capital controls can tighten in the next crisis. Curious how everyone else here is modeling CBDCs in their portfolio construction. Are you adjusting your mix between BTC, stables, and alts, or treating this as noise until we see real retail rollout in the US/EU? Ledger and Coinbase links are affiliate links. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

swissfamrob

I’m literally the person you were responding to lol I understand the context well. As far as the unproven 4 year cycle narrative you keep parroting, I don’t see that logic holding true for anything other than (maybe?) bitcoin. Not stocks. Not bonds. Not real estate. So to rely on it to guide your BTC decision making as some sort of proven rule is foolish given how new BTC is.

richardto4321

Yeah I'd argue that most people who own BTC nowadays are way outside of this venn diagram.

devCheckingIn

ETFs sold 21,000 BTC this week alone (so far). And true to form, BTC did go down. Not sure it's really that big of a deal though in the grand scheme of things.

coffeebadger21

> The wealthy holders NEED to start looking into marketing budget. Why do you think the price is down? Work is being done. You can't just advertise a new economic and cultural paradigm on TV. We need to neutralize the threat of anti-capitalist regimes internationally before they realize what's happening. It's best that BTC remains underestimated so that our enemies end up with less of it before it's officially recognized as world reserve currency.

BANKSLAVE01

BTC of a STRC, even!

swissfamrob

4 year and 16 cycles have been around for a century? That statement has zero meaning esp as it relates to BTC.

CeltsFan420

I'm about 60-65 BTC and rest stocks and very small percent in real estate investment app

devCheckingIn

Yes, they're tied to algo trading bots related to BTC, which itself is also tied to other things. Alts are just leveraged plays on BTC. Problem is, over time, the downside moves tend to outpace the upside moves with each cycle.

devCheckingIn

The whole point of "diluting the shares" is to get more Bitcoin per share. They call this "BTC Yield". That's the whole strategy and that's why people buy MSTR because it gets holders more exposure than buying BTC alone. Diluting the common stock is not a downside but rather the method they use to get BTC yield.

CommonBoot1305

Really uneducated take.  Just because you dont understand STRC or MSTR, or heck even BTC doesn't mean they will crash.  I just means you're r3tarded and shouldn't talk about things you are uneducated on.  Shoot I bet by the end of this year alone, MSTR is worth at least 30% higher than it is today.  

Turbulent-Land-5664

HOw does it work? I really wish I could do something like staking to earn some interest. I know theres a wrapped BTC but dont know if I can do that inside an exchange or how to get there from straight up BTC. Also dont know how that can be done with self custody.

Ok_Chemistry6851

Solana is seeing a lot of tokenized stocks action, but with the way BTC is going there is no chance of any of that to show up as price action.

Turbulent-Land-5664

I am sorry I mean 4% or .04 of 1 BTC. And yeah Ive used Binance P2P works pretty well.

Rickard403

If it was you would you watch BTC just ride up to ATH again without buying back in? How is this even a serious take for anyone interested in buying BTC? I thought BTC was going to $12k last cycle and i could've bought sub $16k. I was wrong, so i bought in at $19k. Problem solved.

titsngiggles69

Do y'all read? The article is bullish on BTC, but says the rainbow chart isn't as relevant as it once was.

Available-Distance81

1 BTC is still worth 1 BTC

CuriousDebauchery

Eh I never saw what's wrong with selling at some point when you're already in profit, and the market seems to be on a down turn, and then buying back in when the new price is suitable. Over the last 2 cycles I did that with whatever BTC I had accumulated and it accelerated my gains by quite a lot. I dont pay capital taxes on profits, which works well for me, but even if I did, I had 5x profit this cycle when it hit 124k and there's no amount of tax that I'd pay that would make me not want to see above 100k and buy back in as DCA on the way down, and lump sums at apparent support levels.

Independent-Base4040

Spend it in countries , places that accept BTC. From ur cold storage to a lightning spending wallet

JeremyLinForever

I’m sorry you feel that way. I’ll buy your BTC from you if it makes you sleep better at night? Edit: I’ll even reluctantly take it from you at a discount of $20,000 per BTC price :)

Strom22222

By making that statement, you have no idea what the play or position is. Your first sentence is correct. But to say there is zero reason for him to have a business is ignorance. Much like many or the comments in here. His goal is not to be the market maker for the price. The goal to to accumulate, regardless of price. The long term play is to be able to establish the first BTC bank and be able to use the BTC as leverage. STRC is the first iteration of this, although it's design is used for more accumulation. Do your research.

pommesUNDwurst

I am somewhat with you on this. I sold my whole stack in 2021 and 2025. And I don't believe we will see 1 Million $ or even 200k BTC anytime soon. But I feel like this cycle feels exactly like the last. The hate BTC gets. The BTC sekt that always screems to DCA no matter the price. The FUD... It's the same it has ever been. I diversivied. I cannot loose. BTC has treated me well so far. No reason to doubt it as long as the 4 year cycle is intact.

ColegDropOut

Yea I think we’ll just use it to buy more BTC.

Strom22222

I'm not saying you are right or wrong. Like with anything and especially investments, time will tell. The only question I have is: Given you are "petty", if BTC goes on a bull run now or a year from now and MSTR/STRC goes back to $400 and increases it's yield respectively, will you also concede Saylor was right? Or will this thread be deleted? Or will he just be called "lucky"?

Baseidou

If buying on exchanges would be a 100% guarantee that the price would rise AND stabilize at higher levels, they would have already done so by now. With such certainty it doesn't make sense to issue 11.5% bonds in perpetuity and redeem 0% interest debt. Also for every buyer there is a seller. If he's buying cheap OTC somebody is willing to sell cheap OTC. Avoiding exchanges to not affect too much price goes both ways, the buyer doesn't pump and the seller doesn't crash. People treat BTC and MSTR as a certainty, but if it were one, who in their right mind, who already owns large quantities of BTC, would be willing to sell cheap now?

iz_raymond

Or that someone has short trade on BTC. It doesn't have to be envy, some look at the flow and follows it

holymolyratio

BTC is such a scam lol

Botlenose

The way I see it is that bitcoin is so correlated with software stocks in general, suck as MSFT, or even better yet IGV. I think there will be a rotation back into BTC on schedule later this year after it truly bottoms. I remember last bear market seeing people say the same things you’re saying, that this was the end of bitcoin. I think the odds are genuinely very low that this is the end and it doesn’t recover.

TameemJi

I look at this the opposite way. How can stocks go up and up forever? How can the US pay off its interest debt when its payment (just interest payment) will be greater than what it collects yearly? Even if you 10x your money in the stock market, you still have the same or less purchasing power in the next 5, 10+ years. I’m gonna take the risk and keep a healthy split. I am 50% BTC and 50% into the S&P 500.

Flynn_Kevin

People like me with money in tax sheltered retirement accounts that (currently) are unable to custody the asset. I can't get BTC in my ROTH, but I can get MSTR. STRC, and MSTY (along with a good number of other crypto ETFs). I've held long enough that the dividends have already covered the purchase of the stock and then some. When I retire, those gains are tax free. Really, you can say the same for other commodity-based ETFs like those based on precious metals. Why own a stock of gold when you can just own gold and self-custody? The answer is convenience, liquidity, and tax shelters. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Sure, I have paper BTC, ETH, gold, and silver in my ROTH. I also have some self-custodied. I add to both exchange custodied and self custodied stacks regularly.

GlizzyCannons

Just to add -- There is literal liquidity tying many of these assets together in a concrete way. More so than just same market forces. Order books where ETH is paired with BTC whether it's on a CEX and/or DEX for example. Then ETH is paired with X meme coin in a similar way. This stuff kind of bonds the prices together where thicker liquidity = stronger price bond.

Odd-Internet4497

Rotate to BTC while you can

Dear-Possibility1535

You dumb shit. You're only -40% if you bought BTC at $120k. If you bought at $16k then you're up 350% 🥴

CryptoCustomz

BTC on a 3x levy play

Patient-Process-2565

Could get very ugly for Saylor and consequently retaile will get crushed, recked and destroyed holding Microstrategy shares and BTC for that matter. His ponzi like scheme could collapse very quickly

Typical_Platypus9163

That would be me. I apologize. I definitely cashed in $25 worth on Bitrefill for a Disney Gift Card. This was just a test case to be sure I can trust Bitrefill. I’ll be unloading approx $1,500 in the next few days because we’re doing a Disney visit. Full disclosure, I am at peace with exchanging BTC for Disney gift cards. I mined this stuff years ago, so I’m definitely “up” and I’ll have enough in reserve to continue to HODL for the long term in anticipation that it becomes generationally life-changing, as opposed to current gratification and memory-making. Please enjoy the continued dip with my compliments!

MadCryptoMan

The problem here is that a logarithmic regression line like this will only ever point up and to the right overall (unless BTC literally falls to zero or something). It will never predict BTC heading lower and lower over multiple years. So this is all based on the assumption that BTC continues overall upward price movement consistent with its past logarithmic growth. Maybe, but the model is incapable of ever predicting anything other than that. It's all based on that one key assumption.

devCheckingIn

So far 21,670 BTC have been sold just from ETFs this week, with still another day of trading to get through. And people are worried that Saylor might sell a handful here and there. In fact if Saylor sold that much in a week, he would have enough cash reserve to pay out dividends for 2 years.

justinrego

BTC is not subject to the IRS's wash sale rule, so if you have any stock market gains you will pay taxes on, you can offset those gains by realizing the losses from a BTC sale, and without the wash sale rule pertaining to BTC. you can just rebuy your BTC almost immediately after you sell it (I wait 20 min because there is some fuzziness about doing this too much and too often to avoid taxes) but it is currently legal. WHen I get about 1000-2000 in BTC losses I sell and rebuy in 10 minutes, realize the loss, then have the same amount of BTC but offset stock market gains. Make sense? Congress has been trying to close this loophole for a couple years but hasnt passed anything yet.

ChomsGP

yea sure, I'm just stating that, in my opinion, the original chart represents the public perception of BTC accurately (again, minding that the bands are a feeling representation more than a hard fact)

examachine

BTC and ETH are both obsolete technologies Guess what happens to obsolete cryptocurrency

TheRadishBros

Okay but that’s why the “BTC is dead” chart is a meme, because it’s not dead, it’s just on hiatus until the next cycle.

Greedy-Entry2393

Its not just BTC , the whole global market is on uncertainty, probably will change sooner or later…

Specific_Essay6041

Better off in a sp500 fund and hold. BTC has been governated unfortunately

joos_hubert

I would separate two things: borrowing to buy more BTC, and borrowing against BTC you already own. They feel similar, but the risk is different. A personal loan to buy bitcoin is basically adding leverage without any automatic liquidation, but you still have a fixed payment schedule. A Bitcoin-backed loan gives you liquidity without selling, but the LTV and margin-call rules matter a lot if BTC drops fast. If it were me, I would only do this with cash flow that can handle a long ugly sideways market. The dangerous version is needing BTC to go up on your timeline so the debt feels comfortable.

repezdem

Why doesn't the top align with BTC tops? Or you just randomly drew a rainbow on the chart?

kmmck

I feel like we're at a stage of society where altcoins have been demystified. Especially with AI letting people be informed. You can call me cynical but this is my take on it: In the 2021 bull run, every altcoin basically pumped alongside BTC. If BTC increased 10%, almost every altcoin pumped 20%. If you were in the top 100, you were in for the ride. In the 2024 bull run, only the top 10 to 20-ish altcoins had any decent pump. Even then, most of them barely got past their 2021 ATH. So big names like ETH, XRP, SOL, etc I think for the next cycle at 2028-ish its going to be the roughest cycle by far especially after Trump basically solidified altcoins as a rugpulling tool

SirDaddio

Whose going to buy those 30k BTC when most of the liquidity comes from saylor as it is

Acceptable_Main_5911

Agreed. I stopped DCA after the ATH last year and rapid decline. Lumped a little in recently and started increasing DCA when it went under 70k so my average is still decent. WNTR ETF is my hedge giving dividends weekly and it’s doing well for now. Keeping this path for the next 3 months and reassess in October when BTC (\~could) rally a bit.

Accomplished_Fix5702

You need to think about your maths. You aren't reaching 8.1m people here. Only 5 people on this thread right now, and some are just here for the schadenfreude. This sub gets 500k visitors per week, but the people holding BTC are likely in a minority. Your post might encourage half a dozen people to buy a sat if you are lucky. People will buy if they want to, not because of a pump post.

Few_Green1142

My portfolio is down by 25%. Shall I wait for it give 10 to 15% profit or selling it now will be the wise decision. My portfolio has BTC, ETH, SOL, UNI, POL

kmmck

about 4 years ago when this was first posted BTC was at aroung 40, or 30k. So I think now is a great time

TheRealHotHashBrown

If BTC goes up, then MSTR is going to go up too. Then Saylor would be everyone's hero again 😅

Realistic_Fee_00001

And I tried to explain why your assumptions are wrong. The reason why it hasn't caught on is that it was forcefully stopped in its tracks. From 2009 to 2017 you see an exponential growth in BTC transactions. That stopped in 2017 when the blockstream payed developers refused to scale it. Blocks got full, user experience deteriorated with high fees and unreliable transactions. That is what stopped further adoption and what ultimately lead to the pivot in narrative to a gambling token for more fiat.

gordonfr_

In my view at this amount it is optional. But probably you like the idea that some BTC on the blockchain is reserved for you. By storing it in a cold wallet, you can really own it and have access to it without any intermediary. This narrative is vital for retail BTC. Who would otherwise buy a highly volatile bond from a crypto exchange?

mrawya_rashaka

Idk why but up until I saw this I had a completely different image of what Saylor represents. I cannot believe that he actually posted this. It basically feels like he’s advertising a ponzi scheme, which I think he is? I don’t really understand STRC and the mechanism behind it but it just sounds super sketchy. A guy like this holding hundreds of thousands of BTC is really freaking me out.

AeroSyntax

Just swap ETH to BTC.. 

pommesUNDwurst

Maybe you will be right. But I am with OP on this. I'll be waiting till Oktober if we stay above 50k. No point in rushing it if the Bottom always occured more or less exactly one year after the ATH. And it will not be my first time waiting for an entry in BTC. But don't get me wrong. If the price gets close to 40k I am all in no matter what time it is.

Fit-Poet6736

I just hodl at nexo and earn on my BTC, already heavily invested so no plans to sell, just HODL

Nexis234

I honestly don't care if it goes to zero. Over the last 9 years it's taught me enough lessons that it was worth it anyway. Go to zero BTC. I will still hold you and I don't care.

Electronic_Worker245

You'll all be in for a shock in the next bullrun when alts give face melting gains. They had to shaft people in this cycle because everyone expected it to repeat like 2021. Now everyone is returning back to btc they'll run up alts again in the next run and everyone will fomo back in at the tops driving alts even higher. Just buy any alts now and chill for a few years. I'm balls deep in shib, Pepe, doge, turbo, wif, trump, Fartcoin, sol and I hold BTC just incase alts go to 0. Atleast I'll make my money back with BTC on a long enough time horizon. And if the whole crypto market goes to 0. Well atleast I had a go at trying to make generational wealth.

CrowdWisdom360_1

True but if one wants to make investment in BTC or other tokens bottom is the absolute time anyways. At least now we know it is not going to reach $100k anytime soon lol

freexe

Yep, and that number will only increase. The question is does he raise the dividend and start selling BTC or close the fund and run away with all the BTC. Either way it's going to blow up the BTC market even more.

AdDecent3079

There’s a big difference between what was 10-5 years ago and now. Today ai stocks are trending, they bring you much higher returns than crypto. Trump has also done rug pulls last year and people don’t look at it as a creditable investment. It’s quite simple, if you want BTC at 150k you need people that will buy it at that price. Nobody in their right mind will pay that now, I doubt whether they will pay this in the future. You’re better off investing in stock and risk is much lower- you actually invest in something that exists and has a pirpose

ockhams_laser

BTC is the safer long term hold by far. most alts get diluted out or straight up die off over a 3-4 year span, if you want exposure beyond BTC just keep it small and stick to ETH at most

Original-Season-9941

I've never owned BTC and I've seen this spiral looking thing loads

colonisedlifeworld

To those who are always posting here wishing for BTC to go down so they can buy more, this is your time to buy

AmeliaMaggie

The markets are about to get destroyed and BTC will fall with it unfortunately. BUT the greatest opportunity is just ahead…,

Romanizer

Next cycle his BTC runway will be 100-200 years.

JaNuS_d-_-b

Buy BTC and forget shitcoins.

Astrotoad21

Because the company can crash. They have been borrowing against their BTC holdings for years, they need BTC to be valuable and growing. When it’s not, the timer starts ticking.

AdDecent3079

Exactly you do you. I don’t believe BTC will be going up, I think it’s naive to think it’ll do 2-3x, but hey that’s my opinion

piggleii

BTC holders right now: "Must ... sell ... everything ... at 60k!"

AdDecent3079

2.5-3 x returns 😹 bro why would anyone on earth buy bitcoin at 150k? It’s all hype and no added value. People invest in ai stock now which actually does something… I would say BTC will go down more from hete

AdDecent3079

Nope, sold all alts. Evaluating whether BTC is the right investment

AmeliaMaggie

It’s easy. Am I selling now? No. Do I need to retire now? No. Are we in the 4 year bear market cycle? Yes. Can I buy more BTC as this is a once in a 4 year opportunity? Yes.

rs1971

You have no idea what BTC is going to do.

_Stylite

This is the biggest reason why I think the bull market many people are counting on will not happen. The past two bull markets were relatively unpredictable, even though history repeated. These cycles were not obvious to people who knew about BTC and crypto, and the BTC high of 120K is what really crowned the asset and got everyone’s attention on it. Now, at a drop to $60K, making a bet on price going back to $100K quickly and predictably \*\*just seems too easy to be true.\*\* One thing that seems like a constant theme in crypto and investing in general, is that there are very few sure bets, and when a large amount of people have strong conviction that they are about to make a lot of money on a sure, predictable bet, usually they all lose miserably, or at the very least undershoot expectations by a large margin.

BanzaiKen

I bought a BTC at 33k and sold at 80 something in Dec 2023, a thousand under whatever the new ATH was. I then picked up 1.3BTC in the low 50-60s using that money and sold that at 110k because its a scary number. Im waiting till Q3-Q4 like the other oldtimers chanting this time isnt different. Im collecting 4% on this in RH while Im waiting. I cant think of any stock that doesnt assume substantial risk or stroking some techbros cock for those kinds of gains. Once I re-up Ill trade in BTC in my bi yearly visit to Japan for Yen and avoid the bullshit exchange rate. Thats a cool thing it does my stocks dont do. Im making these trades because my childhood buddy who begged me to invest at $1000 (literally on his hands and knees and I still didnt listen) invested everything he owned (about 40k at the time) and bugs me to visit him in the office building he owns near Asahi Brewing in Tokyo and he sells BTC ATMs. 4-5x is a good haul. Its not skyscraper money but I do have a housekeeper, landscaper and as much travel as my vacation allows from a no brain fund that pays for itself every four years. See you at 100k or 2028-2029. Id invest in gold but its proving to be as fiat as BTC as a reserve currency vs the dollar.

Ultimo_Ninja

Just stack cash and buy the dip in BTC.

General-Ring2780

Good luck my friend. I only invest in BTC. There will only ever be 21 million of them.

jakeygall

I don’t understand anything of anything 😂. I’m just putting small amounts to DCA into BTC to see what happens over 10 years. Just wanna diversify lol

Leynnox

I'm using only Strike since I buy only BTC, and they're MICA compliant, so nothing will change for me \o/

SeriousGains

BTC going to 200k EOY! Ah, ah, I didn’t say “cycle says.” -Tom Lee

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1ufv7ov/10x_research_just_put_the_cycle_bottom_at_55000/ Meanwhile, Strategy and Strive keep buying every dip. I think it's not too left-field to guess that one of these groups is about to be very wrong. Bears on one side with data, with 10x Research publishing a report titled "The Time and Price That Will Likely Mark the Cycle Low" and pinned $55,000 as the actionable bottom, with a timing window of late August to October. Their core argument: ETF outflows, not corporate selling, are driving this, and we've now had seven straight weeks of redemptions running into the billions. They flagged a USD strength indicator that's only fired six times since 2011, last triggered November 2025, and every prior time BTC fell in the months after. Polymarket traders agree, pricing 64% odds that BTC touches $55K or lower before 2027. Kalshi has similar numbers. The market consensus right now is genuinely "lower." On the bull side of this argument are the corporate buyers, and they are not blinking. Strategy bought another 520 BTC this week, pushing reserves past $1.4 billion. Strive added 759 BTC at an average of $65,850. These aren't traders, they're treasuries accumulating into the exact weakness the bears are calling. Saylor's framing is that the $4 billion-plus in ETF outflows since mid-May is capital rotating into the AI buildout, roughly $400 billion being funneled into AI over six months, not a verdict on Bitcoin's fundamentals. His bet is that when AI enthusiasm cools, that capital rotates back, and the people accumulating at $60K look brilliant. So you've got quant research and prediction markets saying $55K is coming, against corporate treasuries treating $60K as a gift. The bears are trading flows and momentum, which are unambiguously negative right now. The bulls are trading a longer thesis where current prices are a generational entry and the flow data is temporary noise from an AI-driven rotation. The honest tension is that both can be right on different timeframes. BTC could very well tag $55K in the next two months (bears win the trade) and still be the best entry point of the decade (bulls win the investment). But in the near term, somebody eats a loss. Either the $60K support that's held repeatedly finally cracks and the dip-buyers are early, or the outflows exhaust, the corporate bid absorbs the supply, and the $55K calls become the next "dead cat bounce" miss. I keep landing on the side that flows win in the short term and this probably does see $55-57K before it's over, but I've watched "Strategy is about to get rekt" be wrong for five straight years, so I hold that view loosely. Throughout the drama, I'm tracking the daily flow of data through the [Bitcoin.com](http://Bitcoin.com) News App ([iOS, macOS](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bitcoin-news-markets-ai/id6759914077) | [Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.bitcoin.bitcoin_news_app)), and find the on-device AI summaries make it easier to get through the dense ETF-flow and research-note coverage quickly, and privately. So, is the $55K bottom incoming, or are the corporate buyers about to look like geniuses by the end of 2026? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

bearsfan1014

Don’t invest in crypto that which you are not willing to lose. I don’t know what tomorrow brings but my bet is BTC is up in the future. You just have to get to the future. If I’m wrong, I’m ok with what I invested being gone. It’s not my only investment and I’m not looking to get rich quick.

devCheckingIn

There's no bottom structure on the charts at all. ANOTHER 7,000 BTC were sold off from ETFs today (and that's before IBIT has reported). Clearly we're still in a momentum-driven market.

absentbrain

I think that it will drop ~66% BTC dropped 87% after the first halving, 84% (3% less) after the 2nd, 77% (7% less) after the third. Put this into an equation: 3x(H-1)+(H-2). H = Times halved. ~3x3+2=11% less of a drop for the 4th halving. 77-11 = 66% ATH was $126,198. 126,198x(1-.66)=$42,907.32 So i think that the ATL of this cycle will be $42,907.32

riscten

That's the main concern regarding price right now. The two upcoming megacap IPOs, possible rate hike, and the midterms. All of these are adding incredible downward pressure on BTC's price.

JeremyLinForever

He is literally creating a market for digital credit. He’s setting the rates for lending against BTC. But you wouldn’t know because you’re too busy buying shitcoins like ICX, MEA, and messing around with Magic cards and Yu-Gi-Oh cards.

CompetitionDouble420

Tell me you don't see the big picture without telling me... Humans having been trading with Fiat currency backed by govt trust for 900 years. Not to mention, BTC won't even be completely mined for another ~114 years... That said, Bitcoin is objectively relatively young.

GreenStretch

The time to buy alts was when BTC was also down, not after it's already pumped.

JeremyLinForever

Thanks for your fear, just made me more confident in buying more BTC and MSTR stock.