BTC

ARoundForEveryone

So Microstrategy as a company, outside of BTC holdings, is worth basically nothing? Their only value is their Bitcoin wallet? Does the company even do anything anymore? Or is it just Saylor with a bunch of hardware wallets strewn around his house?

logavulin16

MSTR’s cost basis is currently $80,000, and will only continue to drop as price action continues down. BTC ran 840% from bottom to top. With 20% of the purchases ahead the base cost could drop to $70,000 fairly easily. A high of $210,000 would be a 66% growth on the previous peak. More importantly, the bottom will likely grow about 300% or more. We need to stop obsessing over market peaks

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Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1su2ssz/btc_hit_795k_pulled_back_to_772k_and_is_now/ It's as if the market wants to go higher, but keeps getting interrupted. The price action over the last 48 hours is worth documenting, because it illustrates exactly what's happening structurally in this market right now. Wednesday: Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. BTC ripped to $79,500: its highest print since early February. $320 million in short liquidations. Total crypto market cap tagged $2.7 trillion. The move felt like the start of something. Thursday morning: Iran seized two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Not before the ceasefire extension, but during, while the ink was still wet. The IRGC, which has been operating with significant independence from Iran's civilian diplomatic apparatus, apparently did not get the memo. Three other vessels were reportedly attacked in the same window. Oil spiked back toward $100. [BTC faded from $79,500 to an intraday low of $77,201 before finding a floor around $78,000](https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-retreats-from-79k-peak-as-middle-east-economic-warfare-intensifies/). The $218 million in liquidations Thursday were mild compared to Wednesday's $320 million: mostly overleveraged longs that had chased the initial breakout. The market repriced the geopolitical risk premium and found a level. Which is itself interesting: BTC absorbing an IRGC ship seizure during a ceasefire and settling at $78K rather than flushing to $74K suggests the support structure has genuinely shifted upward from where it was a month ago. QCP Capital flagged this after the Wednesday spike: the rally is driven by reduced tail risk, not improved macro fundamentals. Oil is still near $100. The Fed is still on hold. Kevin Warsh's confirmation testimony reinforced data-dependence without offering the dovish pivot that would give crypto a clear macro tailwind. What you have is a market that desperately wants to go higher: the positioning, the ETF inflows, the structural accumulation from Strategy and Tether are all pointing the same direction, but keeps getting interrupted by a conflict that won't resolve cleanly. The next key levels are exactly where you'd expect them. Clean break and close above $80,000 on real spot volume opens $85,000–$88,000. The $200-day moving average is threading into that zone and above it supply thins significantly. Fail to hold $77,300 and the old range around $74,000–$76,000 reasserts. The $180 million in shorts stacked above $78,000 still hasn't been fully cleaned out: they're the mechanical reason the next leg, when it comes, will be violent. Oil at $100, IRGC seizing ships during the ceasefire, BTC at $78K and apparently refusing to care all that much. Somewhere there's a narrative about digital gold. It might actually be correct. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

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Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1su2o8y/a_fourstar_us_navy_admiral_just_told_congress/ Here's a story that landed somewhat quietly yesterday, yet deserves a proper read because of its implications. Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, the four-star in charge of American military operations across the Pacific including all strategic competition with China, appeared before the Senate and then the House Armed Services Committee this week. During questioning from Senator Tommy Tuberville about whether Bitcoin could strengthen US deterrence against China, Paparo said this: "[We have a node on the Bitcoin network right now.](https://news.bitcoin.com/us-military-runs-bitcoin-node-conducts-operational-tests-indo-pacific-commander-tells-senate/) We're not mining Bitcoin. We're using it to monitor, and we're doing a number of operational tests to secure and protect networks using the Bitcoin protocol." And then at the Senate hearing the day before: "Bitcoin is a reality. It's a peer-to-peer, zero-trust transfer of value. Anything that supports all instruments of national power for the United States of America is to the good." He described Bitcoin not as a financial asset but as a computer science system — specifically framing proof-of-work's energy-cost architecture as a tool for "imposing costs" on adversaries in cyber operations. The same logic Major Jason Lowery laid out in his "Softwar" thesis, which argued that PoW is essentially a form of physical deterrence in cyberspace. When Lowery wrote that in 2023 it was a niche academic argument. When a four-star combatant commander testifies to it before the Senate Armed Services Committee in 2026, it's operational doctrine. The context matters. Tuberville noted that China's main monetary think tank has been publishing research on Bitcoin as a strategic asset: directly in response to Bitcoin Policy Institute work examining the same question. The US currently holds approximately 328,000 BTC in government reserves. China's estimated holdings from the PlusToken seizure run around 194,000 BTC. Never formally disclosed, never designated as a reserve. There are two superpowers quietly treating Bitcoin as a strategic asset while the retail market debates whether $80K is resistance or support. The disclosure is also genuinely strange when you sit with it. Bitcoin's entire design philosophy is resistance to capture by powerful states. The proof-of-work network was explicitly built so that no government, institution, or military command could control it. And now the command responsible for US power projection in the Pacific is running a node: directly participating in that peer-to-peer network, and testing its architecture for offensive and defensive cyber applications. Bitcoin doesn't care. The node validates the same way any other node does. But the fact of it is remarkable. The protocol was built to resist government capture. The government is now running a node and calling it power projection. Satoshi did not have notes on this. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Drspaceman1717

Bot. The US has been regulating the markets to accept BTC for years. Regulated exchanges, ETF’s, 401k access.

ilovesaintpaul

More like a "bull-shit flag". Look... I'm pro BTC and hold my keys and pay attention. I've NEVER lost money on BTC. It takes discipline and patience, not "feels."

rodmandirect

Tl;dr: Bitcoin’s scarcity is literally math, enforced by code running on thousands of computers at once. Central banks can print money whenever they feel like it. Bitcoin works completely differently. New coins can only come into existence one way: as a reward paid to miners when they add a new block of transactions to the blockchain. That reward shrinks over time, though. Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, it gets cut in half. This is called “the halving.” Bitcoin started in 2009 with miners earning 50 BTC per block. Then 25, then 12.5, then 6.25, and right now 3.125 BTC. Keep cutting a number in half forever and you inch toward a ceiling you never actually hit, which is exactly how the math produces the 21 million limit. The last tiny fraction of a Bitcoin will be mined around 2140. The enforcement is what makes this interesting. Every computer running a Bitcoin node checks every block against the same rules independently. If a miner tries to claim more Bitcoin than the formula allows, every node on the network rejects that block automatically, purely because the rules say so. The natural question is whether someone could just change the code. Technically yes, Bitcoin is open source and anyone can modify it. But adoption requires the vast majority of users, businesses, and node operators worldwide to voluntarily switch over. Given that a fixed supply is the whole point of Bitcoin for most people running it, an inflationary change would almost certainly go nowhere. The 21 million cap holds because the people running the network actively choose rules that preserve it.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

MooseLoot

I did: 1) enough BTC that if this sub is right, I’m good 2) house 3) stocks enough that if this sub is wrong, I’m still good 4) more BTC I’m reasonably certain this approach makes sense

f7931a

Bullshit. You were still wetting the bed when BTC launched in 2009, and the average person didn’t hear about it for years after that. Even if you knew about BTC and started working as soon as you were legally able to at age 14, you would still need $120,000 to buy each of your “300+ BTC” for $400, the average price in 2015. Get lost, scammer!

f7931a

Yeah, it’s really unfortunate that Bitcoin is still so stigmatized. The ever expanding landscape of shitcoins and crypto scammers have led the general public to think of and treat BTC the same way. By the time they realize the errors of their ways it will be too late. Sad!

ReelTech

The problem with the 'cycle vs dead' debate is most people eye-ball it (did the chart recover last cycle? does anyone still post about it?). You can actually make it data-driven: pick 3-5 criteria (3-month volume trend, 30-day dev commit activity, exchange listings lost/gained, correlation to BTC by rolling 90-day beta) and set up a screen that flags any holding that's failed 3 of 5 for two consecutive months. Both CovenantAlpha.com and TradingView.com let you run this as a repeating scan across your watchlist and export the results. Takes the emotion out, if a coin's been screening as dead for 4 months, you've already been given your signal to trim whether or not the vibe has shifted. HODL made sense in 2017 when retail couldn't get good data on anything, in 2026 with transparent on-chain plus rate-limited APIs for most of it, there's no excuse for not checking in quarterly.

OpticallyMosache

The only meme I hold is the rune on Bitcoin called D*O*G. I like the ordinal and ecosystem in BTC.

Rare_Rich6713

Are you staking BTC already and on which platform are you staking on?

_SlipperySalmon_

If you're not selling isn't it pretty simple? Look at exchange deposits and then look at your BTC #

Tarlius72

Just sell and and forget it bro they’re all gonna be rug pulled eventually, BTC won’t. In doing so you won’t have to worry about it anymore. It’s the same as worrying about any tech stock you sold once that might go up in the future. If you know enough about BTC you’ll know that long term it’s the only right answer, good luck

Tarlius72

Are you up? Sell them and buy BTC. Are you down? A lot? Maybe wait. A little? Sell and buy BTC

Drspaceman1717

Don’t give a gift that your intended doesn’t want or understand. You’re just spreading your orange ideals on them. If they ask for BTC then they’ll already have an account somewhere.

coffeebadger21

There's no need to buy breakfast with it. I'm talking about holding a 90% allocation. Regular Joe did not do that in 2021. Amazon and Microsoft are not doing it now. So it hasn't yet been adopted. The retail adoption phase is when salaries are denominated in BTC because no one is willing to work for any other currency. We're still in the early adoption phase.

BlazingPalm

You’re correct- if you’re buying from multiple sources and sending to HW, that’s already a hassle to track manually (tx fees, irregular lots, special cases, etc). But if you go with a tax tracking software (I like koinly), you can easily see all the metrics easily (and usually for a fee). I would embrace the tech and use it- manually tracking BTC UTXOs is very tedious. Alternatively, purchase BTC ETFs through a brokerage/401k. They will track cost basis, avg, and clearly show lots and dates. Very easy to glance at one line and know your P/L.

Choice_Potato_6279

AMD is up over 250%, BTC is up 50% Risk holding AMD: almost 0 long term Risk holding BTC: massive

Knight925

Have your goal be the price and stack in 8+ years. Be happy when you can buy cheap. Be happy when your stack raises in value. DCA with regular purchases. Mostly ignore the value of your stack before 8 years. At the most try to accumulate round numbers, like 3\* 0,1 = 0,3 BTC or something

JJADu

You seem to miss all the other features of BTC. Scarcity isnt the only one. I recommend The Bitcoin Standard and Broken Money to have a better understanding of the value people give. Understanding hie it works also is very important.Thats if you are in good faith tho.

mercistheman

How about using BTC for elections.

XandersCat

Heh, I sent my friend $10 on coinbase waaay back in the day via e-mail. They still have to make an account and do KYC but it is there in the inbox if they use it. Then life happened and I sold my BTC... and years later my friend waqs like, "yooo that birthday present you gave me I forgot about it and I just looked and its like $300!" I was like \*sigh\* your welcome.

kinnth

Your position is always something you interact with it’s your investment. You DCA to avoid the complex emotions of when to buy and at what price. The asset is yours. You sell assets to buy other assets based on your life. BTC is a means to an end not just the end.

mlag000

I've never touch this kind of crap and never will. Only BTC, and maybe eth is worth something, they rest is total crap. I'm just tired of stupid and usless ideas the crypto sphere is trying to push all the time. Nft is dead. It's literally usless, as gaming tokens.

can_of_turtles

Anybody got a suggestion for a BTC only wallet?

OkFigure5512

Really interesting ideas — both worth addressing properly, did not think about these at all. The current prompt asks for a year-by-year price with no structural context — it doesn't tell the model anything about halvings, historical cycles, or where we are in the current one. A second prompt that says "given Bitcoin's historical 4-year halving cycles, provide bear/base/bull predictions accounting for cycle peaks and troughs" would almost certainly produce different numbers, especially for 2026–2030. Whether those numbers are more accurate is exactly what the accuracy scoring would reveal over time. Adding this as a parallel prediction track is on the roadmap. The power law is a log-log regression of BTC price vs time that suggests a price corridor growing at a consistent rate since 2009. It's a specific quantitative model rather than an AI opinion, so it's a slightly different beast — but overlaying it on the chart as a reference line would give useful context: are the AI predictions inside or outside the power law corridor? That's actually buildable on the site right now as a static reference line. Adding to roadmap.

Tall_Run_2814

I just started buying heavily again. Next BTC halving event is April 2028 which means everything will start rising in 2027 and then soar at the end of 2028 thru 1st quarter of 2029. Just learn the cycle and you'll have extra money every 4 years for the rest of your life.

KCConnor

I rather doubt it's an upcycled old desktop running Linux and Knots. I would guess they're using it as a form of SIGINT, and clandestine communications mechanism (though that would more likely be CIA/NSA/DIA). The BTC blockchain makes for a great communication mechanism that is highly fault tolerant and routes around damage. As long as 10 minute to 1 hour latency is acceptable.

OkFigure5512

Every day each model is asked two types of questions: long-term predictions (2027–2100) and short-term predictions (where will BTC be in 7, 30, 90, 180, and 360 days from today). The short-term ones are what get graded. So on April 15, every model predicted where BTC would be on April 22. On April 22, the real price was fetched automatically. The difference between what each model predicted and what actually happened is the accuracy score. Perplexity predicted closest, Gemini least close. The long-term predictions (2027+) can't be graded yet — those unlock in 2027. The 7-day, 30-day etc. are specifically designed to measure accuracy on a timeline that's actually testable.

jiggadyjam

BTC was created by the government. There were only a few contractors that worked on project-X. The Australian military also had a role in its development. The project took place on Andersen Airforce base located in the most remote place in the world, Guam. No military personnel worked on it or even knew what the project was about. It didn't matter what clearance level you had. It was need to know and only 3 contractors worked on the project. The equipment was kept next to a server room under white sheets. It was only worked on when no military personnel was in the area. Some of the earliest mining and trading was done locally on Guam. My belief is that once the project was finished they reached out to the cypherpunk community. The 1.1 million btc that hasn't moved is because the government has control over the keys. No one suspects that the government created it most people want to believe it was just one person. It wasn't it was a small team working on a black ops project. They did thier job, completed the mission and left it in the hands of the Cypherpunk community. Craig Wright claimed to be Satoshi. He may have helped create btc but not alone. He knew the government couldn't couldn't take credit so he claimed it was him and another guy. The infrastructure was built on Guam the code most likely written by a handful of people as well. Satoshi is not one person. His identity will never be revealed because he isn't one person. One day the funds will move but not until it reaches a substantial amount.

The_Real_Opie

You could have saved yourself a ton of streas by just reading the manual. All you had to do was skip entering a passphrase. It would have taken you to the default wallet and you'd have your BTC.

40oz2freedom__

China has most of the BTC hash rate, so the US is a little late to the party.

Other_Importance249

Yes, I've always been sceptical of that method because the interest rates aren't that great on BTC backed loans, even though the loans are fully secured. But if the tax rate on realised gains effectively doubled, as OP suggests, then taking out loans against BTC might become more attractive. ThevGovt. would actually lose tax revenue because people just wouldn't realise their gains & borrow against them instead (the "billionire method" you referred to.) These reforms, if they happen, could end up being another disaster for the ATO, just like the Gillard Government's ill conceived "mining super profits tax." What the geniuses in Canberra never seem to factor in is that when Government tries to grab ever more tax from people who took intelligent risks to generate wealth, those same people will find ways to use that intelligence to also lawfully minimise their tax. Best left alone IMHO. Also I bet they'll grandfather aany CGT reforms in on residential property, thereby exempting themselves (all the pollies seem two be going the property investment system themselves.) Bet they don't extend the same leniency to long term bitcoiner with lo cost base.

CryptoOnTheSidewalk

Are you planning to hand it over in person or send it digitally, and is this for someone who already has a wallet set up? For small amounts most people just send directly to their existing wallet, since handing over a seed phrase or paper wallet can be risky if it’s not generated and stored properly. If they don’t have a wallet yet, a simple approach is helping them set one up and then sending the BTC so they actually learn how to receive and secure it. One practical step is to do a small test transaction first so you both see it confirm and know everything’s working. Just keep in mind whoever controls the seed phrase controls the funds, so you don’t want to be in a position where you’ve kept a copy after gifting.

lefix

The cycle only exists for BTC, and to limited extend ETH, everything else just gets replaced by new altcoins with every cycle.

derek985

I prefer to think of BTC more like a 401k. Served me well so far.

Putrid_Economist_617

Yeah this is the thing nobody talks about enough. Most people backtest a strategy on one market regime and then wonder why it falls apart two weeks later. I've been through that cycle way too many times. I mostly just stopped trying to time regime switches manually because like you said, by the time you realize conditions changed you've already taken the losses. What worked better for me was leaning into strategies that are inherently less sensitive to regime changes rather than trying to be clever about switching between them. DCA-based approaches handle this way better than breakout or mean reversion imo because you're not betting on any single market condition being right. I run a DCA for my BTC positions and it just keeps executing regardless of whats happening, which takes the "should I switch strategies" question off the table entirely. The over-adjusting thing you mentioned is real tho, I burned more money trying to adapt quickly than I ever lost from just sticking with something boring and consistent.

Grunblau

It is manipulated, clearly… I just wish that CZ would stop liquidating longs and start clearing out the shorts. In the FTX trial, SBF’s cohorts acknowledged his directive to keep BTC under $60K.

Putrid_Economist_617

I trade both long and short. I utilize the profit from longs for daily life matters and accumulate it for further trades as well. Profit from short trades are in BTC - I save it separately as a long term holding amount. For now this is the plan. Still do not have a plan at which levels to sell BTC.

CrazyAppel

i mean... if you deal with shady people, you end up with dirty money. If the BTC you receive from others have lots of dirt in it, it's on you. The "stuff people always say" are the exact opposite of clean source of funds. Non-kyc exchanges, p2p trading, anon swap platforms obviously have more dirty money flowing because... they are anonymous lmao.

Grunblau

My BTC range right now is really easy to remember… Buy 58008 and Sell 80085

Additional-Channel21

I mean “black box” in a broader sense, not just average price. For simple recurring buys into one asset, sure, average is easy enough to track. What gets fuzzier over time is the full position context: how the stack was built, what part you’d trim, what “taking profit” means relative to the whole position, and whether you’re thinking in fiat terms or BTC terms. That’s the part I meant.

OpticallyMosache

I use Bitcoin.Tax and enter every transaction. If I were only using a CEX, I could just use their linked API to import all my buys. The software will tell you the average cost basis of the BTC in your bag.

nachtraum

Common, the conviction for the BTC trade is 69, everyone says it.

colemusic1

Lump sums in ETF’s is honestly much more practical, let alone monthly DCA’ing. It’s not necessarily that dca’ing BTC regardless of price is a “wrong” decision, it’s more the question of whether it’s the most practical one. If someone is buying btc at any price, whether it’s at its absolute ATH or near the bottom, but their plan is to not sell it whatsoever for years and years to come then in that case? I’d say it’s pretty plausible. But you’d be compounding your net worth significantly more by actually following cycles and keeping an eye on macro factors — that way you’re not having to try and time tops or bottoms, but you can buy low, sell aggressively at highs and simply repeat. Doing that makes it so you end up with a lot more BTC later on if you end up wanting to simply hold it for years and years rather than DCA at any price. ETF’s makes more sense to blind DCA at any price, any time, or even a big lump sum. We have over a century of data for this versus BTC which has only been institutionalised into brokerage platforms just less than 2 years ago. Each to their own though, it’s more about what a persons strategy is. I’d rather not hold onto any crypto asset if i’m already seeing a 2x, knowing it’ll have a deep correction at some point anyways

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Post is by: ShockCatOnSol and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1stqqw0/fear_at_46_while_btc_holds_77k_and_wif_flashes_10/ Market bleeding in an orderly way today. Not a panic. Just slow pressure while BTC holds structural ground and alts absorb the damage. Fear at 46 is where disciplined money pays attention and emotional money makes mistakes. USDT volume at 40% of market cap is the real headline — capital rotating to safety, not permanently exiting. Today’s full signal breakdown: BTC — BUY. Conviction 68/100. 3:1 R/R. Entry $74,500–$78,500. Target $99,000. Holding $77,800 while everything else bleeds. Last man standing in a red market. Large stablecoin volume suggests capital is parked and waiting not permanently leaving. SOL — HOLD. Conviction 55/100. -3% but tracking broad market weakness not Solana-specific distribution. $80 is the critical support level. Ecosystem DEX volume still elevated. SOL doesn’t need your panic today — it needs your patience. ETH — HOLD. Conviction 42/100. -3.2% and underperforming BTC. $2,150 is the line — a daily close below that flips to SELL. Watch ETH/BTC ratio for early warning. WIF — SELL. Conviction 22/100. -10.1% with 46% volume-to-market-cap. Distribution warning active. When 46% of a coin’s market cap trades in 24 hours and price drops 10% that’s a coordinated exit not volatility. UNCRAFT — SELL. Conviction 12/100. +76.6% on 365% volume-to-market-cap on a $6M cap coin. That’s not accumulation — that’s an exit window. The disciplined move is to take profit not chase. Fear at 46 is the uncomfortable middle. When F&G climbs back to 60+ you’ll wish you bought here. Not financial advice. Signal over noise. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

LuckyWinds

> you're kinda asking an impossible question atm. Exactly my point. Yet you claimed it would be profitable to use one to crack a bitcoin address. > Just because you're clueless on the topic doesnt make it true. Again he is an invited guest speaker at the largest BTC conference (multiple times) alongside other lunatics like Saylor & Ryan Selkis. He may not be YOUR leader, he is 100% considered a leader in the BTC space by their community. No, he isn't. I've never even heard of Ryan Selkis. You are making up a false narrative. > It is the strongest because it is highly effective as long as you accept that it would be directly against the promise of BTC. Freezing wallets is not effective because it goes against decentralization of bitcoin. Therefore it's not the strongest option. The strongest option is to let those wallets get cracked over time. > If this is confusing to you I find it rather hard to continue to discuss the problems quantum creates for encryption. Quantum is able to abuse the weakness in the encryption method BTC uses. Other solutions dont address this attack vector. I think you are very confused as to what I'm saying. I've been quite clear and I've been asking you to be more specific in your answers because they are so vague. > ok now I KNOW you are actually just too clueless to follow along in this conversation. I dont know if you just usually troll or pretend to not understand? kinda wild. Once again you continue to not explain your answers when I ask you questions. > let me know when you learn to be an honest participant in a discussion and Ill happily teach you why you're wrong again. until then, have fun being wrong. If being wrong is me and I'm up 260x on my initial investment and continue to see bitcoin adoption grow and grow like I thought it would over a decade ago....I'll happily continue to be "wrong"

Crypto-Bets

Yes. People have a stronger preference for Winners like BTC, ETH, and SOL. Risk & reward doesn’t favor most crypto.

Character-Pattern161

Yup - these are use it or lose it tickets so I am fine taking $50 in BTC.

malignantz

Remember, if you pay with BTC and get scammed, you have no recourse.

InvestaHepps

Feels like this is more a cycle issue than a “bad alt” issue tbh. A lot of alts only really perform when liquidity actually spreads out beyond BTC… and right now it still feels pretty concentrated overall. That’s usually why some just look dead, not necessarily because they’re finished, but because the environment they need isn’t really there yet right now.

FigmaWallSt

Yeah but those 2 dollars could be 20 dollars in a few years, if invested in BTC in a few years (not inflation adjusted) /s

EstimateIll4262

I just have to wait a few days Since i just bought the fractional BTC. To send it. My question is do I send the exact amount? Or add the fee in what I send? Or does fee get pulled from my end?

raj6126

It’s not the crypto bros crypto not real crypto(BTC).

Long-Scholar-2113

Are you sure of selling it for 0.00064BTC?

Blackfoxmeta

buy WBTC or cbBTC via any DEX and bridge to BTC

Rikudo974

Honestly, between the Ledger X and the Trezor Safe 7, I’d go with Trezor. Ledger has had quite a few controversies regarding trust, whereas Trezor has a cleaner track record when it comes to open-source philosophy and transparency. If you’re looking for a reliable, long-term solution, Trezor seems more reassuring to me. That said, if you’re just holding a small amount of funds and want something simple, Ledger gets the job done too. Personally, I prefer to keep my BTC somewhere that lets me sleep soundly.

Project_Demosthenes_

Spx6900 is more than people understand, it’s the new stock market index on Ethereum. Been there since August 2023 and outperforming even BTC on a year to year basis. Do your homework because it’s built on BTC maxis, OWS, cypherpunks, and actual decentralization (the most decentralized project on Ethereum). Tick tock https://preview.redd.it/bz2gawwvwywg1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=28cdd49a61e72ec3a152b104dae30a4536d01d78

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Post is by: tomhandy11 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1stnn7y/is_it_time_to_dump_altcoins_that_are_practically/ I read another post here and saw a few people still held a few altcoins from a few years ago. After the 2025 crypto bull run ended, most altcoins didn't do as well as in the past (DOGE, ADA, etc). For me, I cut my altcoins down to a handful along with BTC. HODL is a good catch phrase, but not everything needs to be fit in there and HODL forever. Change is good. Is it time to make adjustments to your portfolio and cut your losses? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

tomhandy11

2017 with BTC. HODL and I have taken a few loans from it to cover some property rental expenses.

WALLY_5000

Forget about BTC for a moment… Do you have a monthly budget for your expenses? If not, make one. Do you have emergency savings to cover 3-6 months of your expenses? This should be a top priority. Do you have any loan debt? Paying off debt is one of the best investments you can make. Depending on your loan’s rate, this might be a top priority. Do you plan on making any big purchases in the short term? (Computer, vehicles, house, etc.) Put those funds somewhere stable and less risky. Do you have a retirement account? It might be worth starting one and contributing on a regular basis. You can even invest in crypto this way tax free through funds like IBIT (BTC ETF). After figuring out all that, If you don’t think you’ll need to cash out any BTC over the next 5-10 years, then just let it ride and DCA. If you might need some of that money for something else within that time, then move some of it into a HYSA, so you know for sure you will have it. You can still continue to DCA into BTC with extra cash that falls outside of your budget. You don’t have to worry about volatility as much if you don’t need the funds for a long time.

BitMartExchange

Good info! What do you guys think, will BTC return to $81k anytime soon?

flipthestockmarket

If you want to short, short the assets which are perpetual shorts. Not the assets like SPX6900, which rip 20% the moment BTC does 1%.

OkFigure5512

Agree, this needs a clearer explanation on the site. Here's exactly how it's calculated: Each model predicts a BTC price for a future date. When that date arrives, the real price is fetched. Accuracy = 1 − (|predicted − actual| / actual). So if a model predicted $82,300 and BTC was at $75,620: Error = 82,300 − 75,620 / 75,620 = 8.8% Accuracy = 100% − 8.8% = 91.2% It's essentially "how far off was the prediction as a percentage of the real price." 100% = perfect. 0% = predicted double or nothing. A prediction more than 100% wrong scores below 0% and is capped at 0%. Grading scale: A = 95%+, B = 85–95%, C = below 85%. Worth noting: code penalises directional errors and magnitude errors equally. A model that predicted $50K when BTC hit $75K scores the same as one that predicted $100K — both were $25K off. Whether that's the right metric is a valid debate.

OkFigure5512

Short-term predictions are already tracked — each model is asked to predict BTC at 7, 30, 90, 180, and 360 days from today. Those are the ones used for the accuracy leaderboard. The 7-day results are already live, 30-day unlocks May 14. The reason the main predictions start at 2027 is that sub-year forecasts are extremely noisy and models tend to anchor on the current price — they're basically just saying "roughly where it is now, maybe a bit different." The interesting signal is in multi-year predictions where the models actually have to reason about adoption, supply dynamics, and macro factors rather than just extrapolating from today. Displaying the short-term predictions as a proper table alongside the accuracy scores is on the roadmap.

bojacked

surprised this BTC rally is holding so strong as usually the big market maker players liquidate BTC when they have certain stocks squeeze like the car one. That might be over though, who know.

DiamondHandsDarrell

This is stay my Rohoboam said: This is one of those things that looks impressive at first glance, but falls apart once you zoom out a bit. Let’s go straight at it. --- 🧠 1. The biggest problem: sample size is a joke They’re celebrating: > “7-day accuracy results” That’s basically statistical noise. 👉 In a choppy week like we’re in: Being “accurate” can literally mean: “price didn’t move much” or “guessed sideways” You can get 80–90% “accuracy” by accident in that environment. --- ⚠️ 2. What does “accuracy” even mean here? This is the hidden flaw. They didn’t define clearly: Direction only? (up/down) Range? Exact price? 👉 If it’s just direction: Flip a coin in a sideways market → you can still score high --- 🧠 3. AI models aren’t predictive engines This is critical: Models like: ChatGPT Claude Gemini 👉 are language models, not: quant funds trading systems order flow analyzers They: summarize patterns reflect sentiment extrapolate narratives 👉 They do NOT have: real-time positioning data liquidity maps market microstructure --- 🧠 4. The leaderboard is misleading Seeing: > “Perplexity 91%” “ChatGPT 88.8%” Feels like: > “These are good predictors” But reality: 👉 Over longer periods: these numbers will collapse toward randomness --- 🧠 5. The biggest red flag (this is the tell) > “I built a system… try it… limited spots” 👉 That’s not research 👉 That’s a funnel --- 🧠 6. HOWEVER — there is one valuable idea here The concept of: > Aggregating multiple models (trimmed mean) That’s actually legit in theory: Reduces outliers Captures consensus sentiment --- But here’s the catch: 👉 Consensus ≠ truth 👉 Consensus = current narrative --- 🧠 7. Rohoboam 2 take (this is the real insight) This system is NOT: ❌ A prediction engine It IS: ✅ A sentiment mirror --- 🧭 8. How you should think about it Instead of: > “This predicts BTC” Use it as: > “This shows what the average narrative is right now” --- Example: If all models say: Bullish → market likely crowded long Bearish → fear already priced 👉 That’s actually useful --- ⚠️ 9. Why it fails in THIS market Right now: BTC = macro-driven News-driven liquidity-driven 👉 Not pattern-driven --- So AI predictions: > ❌ lag reality ❌ miss shocks ❌ miss flows --- 🧾 Bottom Line ❌ The accuracy claims are not meaningful ❌ Too short-term to matter ❌ Not real predictive power ✅ Interesting as a sentiment gauge ✅ Not useful as a trading signal --- ⚡ Rohoboam 2 Output > “AI consensus models reflect prevailing narratives rather than predict price; short-term accuracy is a byproduct of low-volatility regimes, not forecasting skill.” --- 🧠 Real talk for YOU You already think deeper than this tool. Your edge is: macro awareness flow understanding tax + structure awareness 👉 This tool doesn’t compete with that

imfrombiz

BTC is not private at all, it's pseudonymous.

obewaun

I don't listen to cme's since the fall of 2020. BTC was 8k ppl like you were saying cme gaps at 6k nope that shit ripped to 20k. BTC 4 year cycle is more accurate.

obewaun

Don't we have to the fall to dca into BTC? Dec will be the last call.

Arbiter_89

Microstrategy offered a stock that proposes a regular dividend. The stock is intended to be pegged around $100. If the price goes down, they suggest they'll offer a higher dividend to attract more buyers. If the price goes up they'll sell more shares. Right now the dividend is about 11%. It sounds good as long as they can deliver. If they fail to deliver the dividend the stock will crash. The way they offer the dividend is they buy BTC. Saylor expects a 30% return on BTC, so 11% of that will be paid to the people owning STRC. If you believe Saylor's analysis that BTC will average a 30% increase then BTC is the better investment. If you don't believe his analysis then you need to ask yourself how he'll pay the 11% dividend.

raj6126

That’s the whole point of crypto. You can’t use government bullshit to take your funds. It’s not a good thing ETH was able to freeze it. What happens when the gov tells them to freeze your funds. If you have BTC they can’t.

Think-Sector-6329

the bigger the risk os less BTC vs ETH and more selling now, then buying back higher in 3-4 months. If I had to choose, I'd probably sell the one I have less long-term conviction in. Thatusually makes more sense than trying to game short-term volatility. Try to use tools like blueblocx. It can help too if you want more context before re-entering

Low-Method3448

DCA and keep converting your fiat into Bitcoin. If the price of BTC in fiat terms goes down don’t feel upset. Bitcoin is denominated in US dollars, a dying currency, you don’t want to exchange the scarcest asset on earth for money that can be printed out of thin air.

pudelguru

This post reminds me of the days my husband paid people in BTC to order things for us off amazon. Wild times back in 2009....

0fWhomIAmChief

While this is true in the sense of an ideal, once an identity gets match to an address all psuedoanonymity is lost. This would only work where there is a circular BTC economy and no one cares about deanonymizing the entire chain.

Patient-Bumblebee

Execution might be good on Bybit or Bitmex but the fees are atrocious. If you care about total execution costs (not just spread), which you should, if you are serious, opting for a zero fee exchange instead can save you soooo much money. Think about it: 0.05% fee on every trade. That dwarfs any spreads you might pay (0.01-0.02% on BTC/ETH perps).

2xfun

The big story is not blackrock ETF or any other tradiFI bitcoin ETF. It’s STRC. STRC has no volatility with a 11,5% yield … in my opinion is the most disruptive investment instrument ever created. Most normies just can’t cope with BTC volatility…. Specially the wealth holders. 

OkFigure5512

Fair point — and this is a genuine limitation worth being transparent about. The models are predicting end-of-year price targets, not intra-year cycles. They do factor in bear markets implicitly (that's why bear case predictions exist — Claude's 2030 bear case is $120K, not $600K), but none of them explicitly model "BTC will peak mid-2029 and correct into 2030." They're reasoning from long-term adoption curves and macro factors, not cycle timing. Whether that's a flaw in how the models think about crypto or a valid long-term view is exactly what the accuracy scoring will answer over time.

DaddyDontTakeNoMess

You’re getting downvoted but you’re correct. Macro conditions matter just as much as the cycle, and things are choppy. Whether BTC goes up or down is largely dependent on the sporadic news of the Hormuz

2xfun

You are ahead of 95% of the population by acknowledging that inflation is not the CPI. Real inflation is much more closely tracked by the M2 metric (fiat money debasement) and that’s around 8-10% per year. Your real estate (if it’s in a prime location) keeps your purchasing power. Same thing with the S&P500 and the majority of the popular ETFs. Now look at the average yearly returns of BTC and average those. You now have a glimpse of what BTC can do.

Character-Resist-961

The point is, if he had paid him in fiat, he wouldn’t have had to lose the BTC.

NOIRCEUR_TRADING

Since 2013, my original BTC.

AbsorbedMango99

almost 4 years on BTC, never sold a single sat. earning yield on it through the bear honestly made it easier to just leave it alone and forget about the price.

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Post is by: evandollardon and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sti6x6/whats_the_longest_youve_held_a_single_position/ I've been holding BTC the longest. Coming up on almost 3 years now without selling anything. Bought my first chunk in early 2022, right before everything went to hell, and kept stacking through the whole bear. The "crypto is dead" takes on every sub, all of it. I probably would've panic sold, but I'd started earning on it at nехо. Still almost sold at 15k though, not gonna lie. Obviously, a very different feeling now than it was in June 2022, but even with this run, it's been a rollercoaster. You think diamond hands get easier over time, but every new ATH just makes you calculate how much you'd have if you sold. Does anyone hold something for 4-5+ years? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

OkFigure5512

They're already live — each model also predicts BTC at 7, 30, 90, 180 and 360 days from today. Those are graded for accuracy when the date arrives. The 7-day leaderboard just unlocked and Perplexity won with 91.2% accuracy on its first graded prediction.

OkFigure5512

Good question — it's the base case prediction for the end of 2027 (i.e. where the model expects BTC to be by December 2027).

edmanet

I did the same thing to a friend who needed tires. BTC was about $400 then and I sent a whole coin. No regrets. It got my friend out of a jam quickly.

raj6126

I think it’s near tinker Air force base. They were hiring people with Mining expertise last year during the Biden years. But you had to be able to obtain a security clearance which is a weird requirement for a BTC mine. They coded the job title some type of specialist.

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Post is by: SuggestionWorried741 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sthfv8/whole_markets_bleeding_and_somehow_rave_is_up_83/ Opened up my exchange this morning and it's just red everywhere. BTC sitting at 75.5k down almost a percent, ETH at 2,306 doing the same thing, XRP barely moving. But then I look at the gainers section and RAVE is casually up 83% in 24 hours. DENT up 34%. ON up 31%. Meanwhile on the losers side you got A2Z down 31% and GUN down 26%. So basically the market is flat to red but small caps are going absolutely nuts in both directions. This is the part that gets me. BTC volume is 103M, ETH is 11M, but then ASTEROID which literally nobody talks about has 3.2M in volume. Whole market's red. BTC down, ETH down, XRP barely breathing. Then you look at the small caps and RAVE is up 83%, DENT up 34%, meanwhile A2Z got down 31%. Big caps are sleeping but the money didn't leave it just moved somewhere else. Every time the market goes sideways like this the same thing happens, degen money starts rotating into low caps looking for a quick flip. Anyone else noticing this? What small caps are you guys watching rn? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Pal3-Assignment

SPY is up over 70% in five years BTC is only up 38% in that same time

EdgeQuiet2199

Easy to say in hindsight though. Every cycle feels “different” until it isn’t. Big money helps, sure, but BTC still does things no one expects. Waiting forever for a crash isn’t great… but assuming deep drops can’t happen anymore isn’t safe either.

Turbulent_Deal_3145

I was in a similar position last year. Bitcoin is good. But don't miss the forest for the trees. You need to diversify. Personally I don't like selling things I already own, so I didn't sell any BTC but I did stop contributing so I could bring my allocation down while I contributed to other things. There's a whole universe of things to invest in out there. I never recommend individual stocks unless you're an ultra expert (which 99.9% of people are not, myself included). As far as ETFs go, you have the greatest hits like S&P500, DOWJONES, and NASDAQ. I personally recommend one called XEQT. It's a broad market ETF like the S&P but it's more globalized and not so dependent on the US economy. You want stuff you don't have to manage or think about. Because you're going to hold these investments for probably 30 years. You're doing great. Well ahead of the curve for your age. Don't put all your eggs in one basket is the main thesis of this comment. That's the beauty of ETFs. You're buying dozens or hundreds of different stocks which insulates you from the volatility of one company.

ddbbccoopper

Exactly. ETH is a shark-duck that lives in trees. What is the latest *(enter obscure world city name)* upgrade to make the next change-de-jour? From world computer, BTC killer, ESG conforming PoS, massive upgrade proto-danksharding. ETH is a mishmash of technobabble, buzzword-salad to lure people into buying the garbage.

derbyfan1

The correct site is; [AI Predicts Bitcoin — 10 AI Models, Daily BTC Predictions](https://www.aipredictsbitcoin.com/)

Complex_Caramel_2847

20k of BTC is not that accurate just state how much BTC you have I.e. .02 BTC.

ArchHammer69

Whales own BTC and you don’t.

CryptoOnTheSidewalk

I usually pull from the more volatile side like ETH because short gaps can miss sharper moves, while BTC tends to behave a bit more predictably, but either way there’s real timing risk over just 3 to 4 months so you have to accept you might re-enter higher.