BTC

Murky-Ambition3898

I wish I had held BTC in a wallet before my divorce.

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Post is by: dorienh and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1rordzy/podcast_sentiment_as_crypto_alpha_coinmonks/ A recent analysis published in Coinmonks examines whether AI-derived metrics from crypto podcasts (e.g., sentiment strength, contrarian signals, narrative intensity, attention share) can predict returns on assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, and AVAX. The study uses lagged features only (no lookahead bias), chronological splits, and tests correlations + ML models (Random Forest, SVR, AdaBoost) across 1d/3d/7d horizons. Key takeaways from the results: * 29 out of 42 metrics showed significant correlation with future log returns (p < 0.001 after correction). * Contrarian indicators performed particularly well: high bullish podcast sentiment often preceded negative returns (corrs -0.11 to -0.19), while bearish/disagreement signals preceded upside—suggesting podcasts capture euphoria tops or capitulation bottoms. * Podcast metrics alone gave modest out-of-sample performance (R² \~0.05, corr up to \~0.39 on longer horizons). * Combined with price/returns data → clear uplift (R² 0.15–0.26, corr 0.45–0.52), with strongest gains on DOGE and noticeable for SOL/ETH/AVAX. Full article here: [https://medium.com/p/733522113090](https://medium.com/p/733522113090) Notebook/code for replication: [https://github.com/dorienh/MarketAnalysis/blob/main/audioalpha\_analysis.ipynb](https://github.com/dorienh/MarketAnalysis/blob/main/audioalpha_analysis.ipynb) Curious if others are exploring podcast/narrative data as alternative signals? Have you seen similar edges from social or on-chain sentiment? Or thoughts on why contrarian podcast signals might outperform in crypto? Looking forward to discussion—open to critiques or related studies. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

MakCapital

Time doesn't matter if 1 of those properties exists. Solve them and you have a solution. Not one anyone needs. Not one that helps the value of BTC. Not one that actually scales Bitcoin. State matters. Why care? Bitcoin has much larger issues than trying to cater to garbage L2s that won't share rev with the Bitcoin network. Pointless unless you're the L2 operator. Doesn't help Bitcoin. See L2s on Ethereum. Could focus on broken long term security model, aligning asset ownership with network authority, moving from POW, quantum resistance, and L1 scaling. So much could to be done over enriching some company that wants to sell a separate state as "transacting on Bitcoin". A lie, and another garbage product.

el_ratonido

I've been told here on Reddit a lot of times that I shouldn't buy BTC and it was going to go to zero. I can say I got this at least 3 times last year.

Pathbauer1987

Gold is also overpriced, but it has real life use. BTC doesn't.

Pathbauer1987

Well, yes. Even if BTC is priced at a trillion, if it doesn't achieve real life use, the same stuff will be said.

wancruz

Exactly, base layer BTC is optimized for security and decentralization, which makes it great as long-term collateral. The real growth might come from second layers and protocols building productive use cases on top.

Clean-Wallaby3164

BTC is the profit. 

RonPaulWasR1ght

Let me ask you something, as you're the top commenter on this, and telling OP to take out a loan rather than sell BTC. Let me turn it around - if OP was instead asking "Should I borrow $ to buy Bitcoin?", what would you tell him? Would you say yes to that? Can you not see that it's pretty much the same thing.

Dramatic_Studio5541

It needs to be caveated with “but make sure expected gain in BTC price is enough to cover interest on your loans”. High net worth people can do this a lot easier because they can get very low interest rates. The average person is lucky to get interest rates low enough that they can be covered by BTC’s price increase

g7008

There's no tax on debt. Just don't over leverage yourself. E.g if you're holding 1 BTC ($66, 500 USD at the time of this post) don't take out more than 20% against it, $13,308 USD. Same concept as buying yielding dividend or RoC stocks with a brokerage margin loan. Also, as others have said use Coinbase since they offer a 5% loan.

BuildWithJohnny

That is a very solid portfolio with impressive entry points. You’ve clearly identified the top performers in the AI (FET, Render) DePIN (Akash) and Modular (TIA) narratives early on. ​A few suggestions for the next phase. ​Profit Taking. Since you are significantly up on FET and Akash consider taking out your initial seed investment to make it a 'risk-free' trade. ​Staking. If you haven't already staking your TIA and ONDO can qualify you for potential ecosystem airdrops which adds extra value to your long term holds. ​Diversification. You have a strong focus on high-growth tech. It might be wise to slowly rotate some profits into a large cap like BTC or even a stablecoin yield strategy to hedge against market volatility. ​Great picks overall especially that Monad entry.

tarekzayani007

Interesting! Large buys like this usually signal long term positioning or treasury management, but sometimes it’s just liquidity shuffling. Either way, it definitely adds confidence that major exchanges see value in accumulating BTC

99999999999999999989

Fuck that. It needs to be zero capital gains tax on BTC. Period.

Top_Opposite_5412

Someone selling small amounts of BTC is having literally zero impact on price my guy 

Ambitious-Gene-6557

Organic growth is still possible, but it’s much harder now. The space is extremely noisy compared to the early BTC/DOGE days. Projects that grow today usually have one of three things: strong community culture, real utility, or viral social momentum. If people genuinely enjoy participating, they’ll spread it naturally.

Ambitious-Gene-6557

BTC and ETH for the long term. But I think ecosystems like Solana still have huge growth potential because of the speed and developer activity.

TheDearlyt

For long term holders the main idea is to keep exposure to BTC. If you sell, you lose that position and have to buy back later at whatever the price is. With a loan, you still own the BTC while getting cash to use for something else. So if BTC doubles while you’re paying the loan, you still benefit from that upside.

Efficient_Culture569

Quick example to illustrate why you shouldn't. Imagine you had 10 Bitcoin, and in 2012 you sold 1 for 50$.  Then in 2013 you sold another for 300$.  Then in 2014 sold another for 1000$. Then 2015 you sold another for 5,000$. Then 2016 another for 10k. You now would have 5 BTC and sold 5 for  bit over 16k. Now imagine you had borrowed against it. And spend 20k on the loans with interest, but you'd have the 10 Bitcoin. You would be much better off. That's why. 

Ok-Meaning-7061

Because you should only be stacking BTC ………. It’s a way to freedom…….. buy one then sell it later then you would understand…. Comin from someone who bought one at under 12k……

thekidhitman

Are bitcoin.tax, Koinsly or others easy to enter from anywhere? I prefer to keep up with my transaction entries so I'm not falling behind (even something as small as a credit card reward in BTC). In the tool I made, I can create transactions easily with a copy/paste on my phone, or if I happen to be at a PC. I also like viewing analytics and charts.

HashCrafter45

"reports circulating online" without a source is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. large BTC movements on binance could be a dozen things, user deposits, cold storage rebalancing, OTC desk activity. attributing it to binance accumulating is a stretch without on-chain proof. that said, if it is real treasury accumulation during a dip it's just smart treasury management, same thing microstrategy does.

gradstudentmit

The CeFi risk is real after Celsius/BlockFi/Voyager all imploded. That said, some platforms survived the 2022 crash and are still around. I've been using Nexo for about a year now. They made it through the crash without stopping withdrawals which gave me some confidence. Rates on BTC are around 5-7% depending on your loyalty tier. Not amazing but decent for just holding. Main thing is don't treat any CeFi platform like a bank. Only lend what you're comfortable potentially losing.

JE2530

I like the privacy coins. BTC XMR ZEC LTC but I’m holding off until this bear bottoms.

Byro1218

BTC is your best bet. More guaranteed to keep going up. Honestly just pick one with a good team, community and it’s as open source as possible. DCA now and sell in 4 years

TapThatYak

The only way BTC goes to zero is if you EMP the whole world and every computer that's using hash power to mine/validate transaction goes into the dumps. This won't happen. If you're skeptical, buy a small amount and forget about it. Read the bitcoin standard, its an eye opener if you know very little about BTC. I also recommend you to look into how all central banks work (US, EU, Canada, etc.) work... In the US, your friendly Chase and other lackies don't have to hold ANY of your dollars in reserves, they are always used/lent out. Meanwhile, crypto exchanges like Coinbase need to have 100% reserves for all their crypto assets.this has to be validated, but you get the point. If you asked me do you want gold or US dollars. I would say gold. Gold or BTC? I would say BTC because the risk and hassle lugging around physical gold is insane. Don't believe me? Try going abroad with several ounces of gold, they will get confiscated. Do this with BTC and no one even knows.

Mendo10_

It is one of the biggest and most successful money laundry operations in human history. BTC will be used by the US Gov to erase their unpayable debt

Famous-Ebb3041

Been there, done that... started in 2021 and now have 10% of 1 BTC (0.10BTC). But I never sold in 2025, because the profit wasn't enough... a few thousand dollars won't do much these days and the entry point only gets more expensive and harder to get into, each cycle. I'm still over $1,300 in profit. Gather in red, HODL in green. It can't go low enough. It can't go high enough. That's a nice position to be in. :-D

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Oil has shot past $100 a barrel. I think it's safe to say markets are gonna be pretty fucked this coming week. BTC was building a nice consolidation. But that might get rekt now.

Remarkable-Grape-218

Currently holding BTC and ETH, they remain the blue chips. For potential alts, I like Solana for its ecosystem growth and Celestia for data availability. But nothing will replace BTC as the reserve asset. The network effect is too strong.

Maktrades68

Hedera is aBFT, no front running unlike Ethereum where you hear horror stories with people losing thousands on swaps, FedEx is building things on the network so I’m not talking out of my assthis subreddit dislikes anything that isn’t BTC or ETH

Logical_driver_42

I’m not sure back in the day there were some websites you could use your credit card on and they would send you BTC to your wallet but they have like 15% fee

Even-Ad4914

Doubt anything takes over BTC since its basically the foundation of the whole space.

West-Persimmon-1816

100% in BTC

Sad-Equivalent9293

There will be no next BTC, only BTC

AprilsMostAmazing

it's my fault guys I bought BTC an hour ago

Capable_Swordfish_30

But how would the cap work? You go to a shop, want to buy something with BTC then you must identify yourself, so a global record is updated saying you already paid say $200 in BTC?

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Post is by: Sufficient_Usual_857 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1roifo1/ltc_vs_btc_for_realworld_payments_my_recent/ Tried to buy some gift cards with BTC last week—the fees and confirmation times were a joke. Switched back to LTC and used AllArk for the first time. The transaction was near-instant, and I managed to get a prepaid Visa without jumping through any hoops. It’s honestly refreshing to see a platform that treats LTC as a primary payment method rather than an afterthought. This kind of infrastructure is what’s going to drive the price up. When spending becomes this easy, holding becomes a no-brainer. Anyone else using them for their 'Cash by Mail' or cards? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

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Post is by: Ok-Tumbleweed-2416 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1rohygq/crypto/ Everyone is talking about price action while institutions quietly moved $592 million into spot ETFs this week. Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in $568.5 million in net inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs added $23.5 million. Combined that is $592 million in a single week. $BTC captured over 96% of the total. Ethereum ETF flows are positive but still a fraction of Bitcoin demand. What stands out is the consistency. Weekly inflows have held above $500 million for multiple weeks now. That is not speculative money chasing a pump. That is systematic allocation from funds with mandates and rebalancing schedules. Retail sentiment is bearish while institutional flows say the opposite. At what point do you start paying more attention to where the money actually goes versus what people say on social media? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Bitcoin developers have merged BIP-360, introducing Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) to enhance quantum resistance and protect vulnerable coins, including Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated 1 million BTC stored in early Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses. This upgrade addresses risks from future quantum decryption threats. A debated proposal suggests freezing coins in legacy addresses that fail to migrate to quantum-safe formats, raising concerns about Bitcoin's immutability. Implementation will require years and community consensus. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

nuconteaza531

If I went almost all-in on BTC, I feel like I’d be less willing to touch it for a very long time because I’d always want to maximize the upside. But if I had a larger portion in safer stocks / dividend stocks, I think I’d feel more at ease knowing that the dividends could help cover some expenses, while letting my BTC position grow untouched long term.

Aapkaapna7

Mine was BTC actually. Still holding some of it

Pitiful-Reserve-8075

This is great, bro. Kudos. I suspect you're still in time to start getting one BTC for yourself too. I wish you the best of luck. You weren't wrong to have followed your maximalist instincts.

Even-Ad4914

Technically, BTC can be upgraded via a "soft fork" to use post-quantum math, but we face three massive hurdles: Quantum-secure signatures are much larger than current ones. If we move them to the main chain, Bitcoin’s already limited capacity gets even tighter. It would force almost everyone to use Layer 2 because on-chain fees would skyrocket. Every user has to manually move their BTC to a new "quantum-safe" address. The millions of Bitcoins lost over the years (including Satoshi’s BTC) can't be moved. A quantum computer could eventually "loot" those coins, potentially crashing the market. Getting the entire Bitcoin community to agree on such a massive technical shift is notoriously slow. TL;DR: Bitcoin can become a quantum proof but it would likely become an even slower, more expensive "settlement layer". Many players are way ahead and easier to scale.

Unbalanced_Acctnt

Check out BTC Sessions on YouTube. Ben has put together tons of tutorials on a variety of cold wallets and how to send & receive Bitcoin and recover wallets. Just search what wallets you’re considering and he likely has a tutorial for it.

defeater33

Only invest ETH and or BTC. Use spot trading only Do Not Use Derivatives( futures, perpetuals and alike) Use candle stick charts especially long term ones( monthly, weekly, daily). Patienly by at low area of the chart and sell near ATH or high area. Remember it's not race to see makes the most.

AcanthaceaeOk809

Let her go. Be obsessed with BTC. No balance needed. You will have plenty of 😺 knocking down your door. You don't want to be tied to anyone even trying to take you to vou to court to get 1/2. Travel and become a Passport Bro. Have one or two on every continent and never bring them the U.S. Start with Colombia, Brazil, and Thailand. Be happy and free and never get married!

BritishBully

Everyone here keeps talking about lower spread on CDC Exchange vs their app, but that doesn't account for the CDC's terribly elevated withdrawal fees. eg. they charge 0.005 ETH for withdrawal, about 9.50, whereas Coinbase just charges whatever the network fee is, eg. 1-5.00 for ETH depending on the gas fees at the time. CDC withdrawal fee for BTC is 0.0004 BTC, so 26.80 right now, which is outrageous.

Decentralization-God

That is probably only Doge coin relevant and it required Elon tweeting back then. The other two are 100% jokes. To your question: Yeah, I think a new project can arise at any time and attract its community even without VC backing or big spendings on marketing. It has been always like that … whether a religion or tech project. The problem of today is that most of today projects are not real projects. It is a repeat of DOTCOM bubble. Similar is AI stuff today. Some projects exist just to exist (and consume investor money or get retail money). Strong communities require conviction. I think Cardano is the best community example in Web3. It is being trashed from all sides, but the people simply resist and work hard, deliver hard nonetheless. Is that already some cult? A bit yes, but a good one, not like BTC maxies calling all shitcoin. Hoskinson is great personality and this is the second ingredient - you need a leader who describes the mission. Satoshi myth, Vitalik, others. Once you have above, all is needed is Reddit post/community or X/Discord and things can start happening, organically! 🤔

Gotglo

Trust bro some things has changed. Understand that 2 things can be true, “4 year cycle” and liquidity cycles. Liquidity/business cycles are also 4-5 years. Liquidity= people buying and money flow into crypto. Bitcoin would never move without liquidity shifts and bitcoin has its cycle from within the liquidity shifts which means bitcoin cycles are an indirect causation of liquidity shifts. Think cause and effect. From the last bear market bottom, there was a liquidity shift from the first BTC ETFs. This was not spot buying that moved BTC this cycle! Alot of people dont understand that the 21M bitcoin theory doesn’t matter anymore. Yes its still scarce and has alot of demand but once financial layers were added, including futures, perpetuals, derivatives, options, ETFs, lending products, wrapped BTC and swaps, Bitcoin effectively lost some scarcity at the point of price discovery. Supply can now be synthetically created, making BTC trade more like gold or oil in derivatives-heavy markets. Price can now be moved up or down without spot buying. Spot buying moved it in its early days when it was way way cheaper, even it this price point right now, regular people cant just take 67k and buy a whole bitcoin or let alone even half a bitcoin. Institutions are the only way spot buying through the 21M supply can contribute to price appreciation but they rather focus on the other ways to make more through paper trading it. While your idea is correct, you are also misinformed.

financeguruIB

Although everything you’re saying is correct. Cycle is real though. Banks and big institutions understand this. We are all fighting for 21 million BTC

Big-Experience-807

Each of us should have at least 0.1 BTC and hold it for at least 5 years. It doesn't matter at what price you bought it. Just buy it and wait 5 years. That's the recipe for success and maybe even incredible wealth.

apathy420

BTC back in 2010 and again multiple times for… reasons

AntiqueDiscipline831

I bought 3 BTC in 2014. I have 1.4 left as I sold 1.6 in October of last year

Successful_Pea3371

Buy BTC on CashApp or a similar payment platform that has BTC as an available asset (and that is whitelisted by your bank/government). Then transfer the BTC to a paper wallet or hardware wallet. Encode your 24-word pass phrase (using your own cypher- or keep all the actual words but put them in the wrong order- so only you know how to put them in order, or memorize them but more risky). Congrats! Your bitcoin is now permissionless and non-confiscatable! Also, right now, I think the odds are very high that your BTC will be worth more when you need to spend it than it is currently. Of course that is hard to predict, but the main features of BTC make it the ONLY asset you can walk across borders with and no one is the wiser.

CardioTranquility

BTC 7 years ago and still holding in a cold wallet. I’ve bought and sold plenty of various coins since then.

cryptomaghou

That's why blackchain is here. Buy BTC to transfer your money or if you're afraid of fluctuations Buy USDT or LTC and move your money out of any country.

Good_Paramedic126

Tu continua a pensare che andrà a 0 mentre noi continuiamo a accumulare e quando vorrai anche solo comprare un solo 0,1 BTC sarà tardi

TheresNoSecondBest

>For now it would operate purely on trust that the bitcoin remains untouched. You're introducing trust where it is not necessary. You can use [1CounterpartyXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXUWLpVr](https://mempool.space/address/1CounterpartyXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXUWLpVr) and "burn" the sats. You can find more wallets like that here: https://github.com/jconorgrogan/BTC-Burn-Addresses Unless it's some kind of Bitcoin related product, nobody will IMHO care.

defeater33

Futures is second only to options in Redditors blowing accounts. Start easier. Stock index, very solid companies, ETH and or BTC buying.

Akihisaaaa

No problem about volatility, just buy a stable coin like USDT, it’s a 1:1 dollar value and not that volatile compared to BTC. Now your only problem is how to allow the transaction to push through from your bank.

RamseyTheGoat

Buying two BTC as a dad is a solid move. The job market volatility you mentioned actually reinforces the need for an asset outside the fiat system. I'm in a similar spot with my own kids and inflation eating away at savings. Just make sure your storage setup is offline and secure.

Aapkaapna7

BTC + HBAR combo is interesting. What makes you bullish on HBAR?

Aapkaapna7

Just BTC or any alts too?

schmuhmuhu

BTC and still hold a bit... But HBAR is the future... 

404PoptartNotFound

Do you have to sell today? Do you believe BTC will never have a new ATH? Then what the fuck are you crying about?

ThePugz

You honestly believe whales are day trading? 🤣 They’re worth a fortune due to HOLDING BTC forever. That’s literally what a whale is. They got very wealthy from not EVER selling BTC.

verysillyman

BTC can’t even pump $100 anymore, everybody is so overwhelmingly short. 57% short vs 43% long on Hyperliquid for example

DBFargie

BTC. Yep, I’ve only accumulated BTC since 2021.

Rudeek

if you buy an internet money not so popular like 500$ for 1$ each BTC 500 btc let’s say… and BTC hits 100$… you will sell 100%…

Aapkaapna7

Nice, holding since the first buy is impressive. Do you still DCA into BTC or just holding what you originally bought?

Otherwise-4PM

ETH, and I got rid of it in 2022. Went all BTC and never looked back.

TheresNoSecondBest

>Tear the logic apart. Let me try. >When Bitcoin is statistically in a state of irrational exuberance (Z > +2.0), the interface's "Buy" button physically locks. It forces a Ulysses Contract against your own FOMO. You simply cannot accumulate during peak bubbles. Go back to 2017. 30th March 2017. The last time, we have seen bitcoin around $1k. Z was 1.88. 31st March 2017, bitcoin price dropped $4, down to $1,037. The Z went up to 2.03. My $1k monthly DCA, set for 1st of April wouldn't get triggered but because the Z is at 2.05 while the price us at $1,079. In fact, we won't see the Z under 2.00 for quite a few months. My $1k monthly DCA, set for 1st of May wouldn't get triggered but because the Z is at 2.97 while the price us at $1,351. My $1k monthly DCA, set for 1st of June wouldn't get triggered but because the Z is at 4.81 while the price us at $2,303. My $1k monthly DCA, set for 1st of July wouldn't get triggered but because the Z is at 3.54 while the price us at $2,480. My $1k monthly DCA, set for 1st of August wouldn't get triggered but because the Z is at 3.36 while the price us at $2,883. ........ My first monthly DCA purchase would be triggered 1st of February 2018. The Z is finally at 1.58 while the price is at $10,265. Luckily, now I'm buying 3x my $1k so getting about 0.3 BTC for my $3k. **Instead of buying in April May and June something over 2 BTC for the same amount of dollars.** Thank you, but no thank you. Back test your ducking vibe coded script before losing everyone else's time and money, please. https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bitcoin-mvrv-zscore

Alatarlhun

BTC maxis and L1 alts speculators all agree Ethereum is their biggest threat. Meanwhile, Ethereum: I am just gonna keep building and innovating.

PirateSKB

Tbf I kinda wish I had sold more BTC while it was over $100k

Nice-Can-1581

Stablecoins USDC for EU region. BTC is end of cycle violitality now, risky to keep for days, current bottom is 54k. Stablecoins are as easy to buy as BTC, so no problem there.

AmanCMN

But the key thing is the direction of the flows. When coins consistently move off exchanges, it usually means less immediate supply on the market, even if total balances are still high. A lot of BTC sitting on exchanges isn’t actively for sale.

Most_Raccoon_587

You hardware wallet has an address to receive BTC. So think of it like an email. You send from the exchange to you hardware wallet, and when you want to sell BTC you send from you hardware wallet back to the exchange to sell. Both will have “send / receive” buttons, and you just copy and paste the address and set the amount to send.

Silent_Draft190

🤣 I know exactly what I’m doing with my BTC buddy been in the market for 6+ years, and have MULTIPLE coins, I guarantee I have more than you, I made this post to just see what other people are doing with thier investment,

MarioWilson122

>Thank God I'm the minority because i remember the majority selling everything they had and buying Trump coin. Majority in crypto are deplorable gamblers and scammers, it's actually a very good idea to not follow their predictions if you want to do well. Yeah I sold most but it was still very weak, which is all I'm saying. Like not even close to the past runs which was what I mostly meant by what I said. >Cycle being "lackluster" and "a disappointment" was down to the expectations of "the majority" which were unreal. If someone believed ALTS are going to skyrocket with a) An institutional based cycle b) Few new retail gamblers joining in c) Old retail gamblers mostly absent and d) With substantially lower liquidity/free money than that of 20-21 then this person can't even understand basic principles of markets and investing. Naw I don’t listen to the unreal stuff even outside of that it was very weak. So that isn’t an issue. I didn’t listen to it in any of the other runs either and it still performed far better than I expected in those. > "Supposed to be a blow off top", supposed based on what, 2021 didn't have a blow off top either, it was a double top just like 2025. Based on a "recurring" pattern that happened once, 2013 and 2017? Smart money bought in 2022, sold 2025 and that's all there is to it. Blow off top is the last rally before the bear market, which is what I was saying. After the october 10 event it was basically over for the market. So it ended in a dud for the most part. >Every cycle has differences, but the basic patterns stay the same and that's exactly how this cycle played out as well. Top at the second half of the year after the halving year, bottom at the second half of the next year, mind blowing gains from a tradfi investing perspective, huge increase of market cap, hugely diminishing returns, 95% alts from past cycles getting demolished against BTC, a very few new and old alts trending. Naw it was mostly trash for alts especially last year with trump leading the charge so he is definitely mostly to blame. Since it could’ve performed better under someone not doing tariffs every couple of months which nuked the market each time. Regardless it was far worse than all other runs for sure, which is all I’m saying it didn’t really have mind-blowing gains on most coins, hell even eth of all plays under performed. I suppose that is what we have to expect now. I’m definitely glad I got in during other cycles that’s for sure. >Was it lackluster? Maybe it was. Was it predictable and expected for a person that invests based on analytical thinking instead of metaphysics, astrology and wishful thinking of getting a Lambo? 100%. Naw it was for sure regardless of ones thinking, since the gains were not really worth the risk. Since at the end of the day this sector is still quite risky.

Legitimate_Cry_5194

Thank God I'm the minority because i remember the majority selling everything they had and buying Trump coin. Majority in crypto are deplorable gamblers and scammers, it's actually a very good idea to not follow their predictions if you want to do well. Cycle being "lackluster" and "a disappointment" was down to the expectations of "the majority" which were unreal. If someone believed ALTS are going to skyrocket with a) An institutional based cycle b) Few new retail gamblers joining in c) Old retail gamblers mostly absent and d) With substantially lower liquidity/free money than that of 20-21 then this person can't even understand basic principles of markets and investing. "Supposed to be a blow off top", supposed based on what, 2021 didn't have a blow off top either, it was a double top just like 2025. Based on a "recurring" pattern that happened once, 2013 and 2017? Smart money bought in 2022, sold 2025 and that's all there is to it. Every cycle has differences, but the basic patterns stay the same and that's exactly how this cycle played out as well. Top at the second half of the year after the halving year, bottom at the second half of the next year, mind blowing gains from a tradfi investing perspective, huge increase of market cap, hugely diminishing returns, 95% alts from past cycles getting demolished against BTC, a very few new and old alts trending. Was it lackluster? Maybe it was. Was it predictable and expected for a person that invests based on analytical thinking instead of metaphysics, astrology and wishful thinking of getting a Lambo? 100%.

77sleeper

I hold 4 different coins, only invest in BTC

Sos418_tw

for €1200 medium risk i'd probably go 40% ETH / 35% SOL / 20% BTC / 5% stable just in case things dip hard. keeps you exposed to the majors without yoloing into one thing. check out coingecko's portfolio tracker to simulate different splits before committing real money, helped me a ton when i started with similar budget last year. also investopedia has a decent breakdown on crypto allocation strategies if you want the theory side.

MiserableOutside9335

Why not BTC?

Dysonator401

It depends on family situations. If you have a bitcoin and no house it would make sense to trade BTC for a family home. Trade BTC for dollars for the sake of trading or to buy a depreciating asset doesn’t make sense regardless of dollar amount.

Short-Cantaloupe-899

I think the R:R argument here is actually pretty reasonable. Structurally BTC does look weak on the higher timeframe — the lower highs since the \~94k rejection are pretty clear, and the 6-month structure does resemble a potential double top / distribution phase. That said, the interesting part is exactly what you mentioned: **risk vs reward around the 60k area**. I've been tracking a few short-term statistical forecasts and most of them currently cluster BTC somewhere around the **67–68k region**, with downside scenarios typically extending into the **mid-60k range** and upside scenarios pushing back into the **low 70s**. So the expected move distribution right now actually looks fairly tight unless we get a volatility expansion. Where I’d be cautious is the **regime shift factor** — if macro liquidity tightens or equities roll over harder, that 60k support probably gets tested quickly. But if that level holds, slowly scaling in rather than trying to catch the exact bottom seems like a pretty rational approach. Curious whether you’re basing the 60k level mostly on historical support or on liquidity zones / order flow?

Zestyclose_Paint3922

Only thing keeping it from falling is human trafficking, weapons, drugs and dictatorships money. It’s just a matter of time before it’s obvious that won’t be enough to push BTC where crypto bros imagine it will be.

Short-Cantaloupe-899

I think the R:R argument here is actually pretty reasonable. Structurally BTC does look weak on the higher timeframe — the lower highs since the \~94k rejection are pretty clear, and the 6-month structure does resemble a potential double top / distribution phase. That said, the interesting part is exactly what you mentioned: **risk vs reward around the 60k area**. I've been tracking a few short-term statistical forecasts and most of them currently cluster BTC somewhere around the **67–68k region**, with downside scenarios typically extending into the **mid-60k range** and upside scenarios pushing back into the **low 70s**. So the expected move distribution right now actually looks fairly tight unless we get a volatility expansion. Where I’d be cautious is the **regime shift factor** — if macro liquidity tightens or equities roll over harder, that 60k support probably gets tested quickly. But if that level holds, slowly scaling in rather than trying to catch the exact bottom seems like a pretty rational approach. Curious whether you’re basing the 60k level mostly on historical support or on liquidity zones / order flow?

quintavious_danilo

BTC CEO doesn’t like your paper-hands mentality. You better take back what you’ve said or he’ll continue to lower prices! ☝🏼

Legitimate_Cry_5194

Cycle played out almost exactly as expected and was incredibly similar with past cycles. 2,5 years of bull market with substantial price appreciation, hugely euphoric phases in spring 2024, winter 2024/25 and fall 2025. Last 2 months of 2021 were also lackluster, BTC hit its ATH November 10 and then it was downhill. If you expect every cycle to mirror each other down to the day that's not investing dude, that's believing in metaphysics. The one big difference from past cycles was that this was an institutional driven cycle, not a retail one. For quite a few reasons, most of them extremely obvious. ALTS got very hurt by that.

I_buy_silver

Once the banks get involved with BTC, will the loan/collateral process get better and easier?

I_buy_silver

I don’t intend to sell BTC. I do believe once the banks get involved with BTC, the loan/collateral process will get better and easier. Hang on, don’t sell now.

Spicyocto

BTC is all you need

Significant_Army_778

Whether a BTC is 5 million or 5 cents they’ll know their dad sacrificed for their future.

Douevengame187

Went out for a packet of cigarettes...came back with 2 BTC

AutoModerator

Post is by: Short-Cantaloupe-899 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ro0v3y/can_statistical_models_actually_predict_crypto/ I’ve been experimenting with a small project that tries to generate short-term crypto forecasts using several statistical models. The goal isn’t to claim “price prediction”, but to test whether combining multiple simple models can produce something slightly better than random direction guesses. Right now the system generates a **7-day forecast** and tracks how accurate those predictions actually are over time. Some things it currently includes: • multi-model forecasts (Drift / Oracle / Axis / Forge) • forecast ranges and confidence intervals • model performance tracking (MAPE, RMSE, directional accuracy) • a simulator comparing model-based trading vs buy & hold • backtesting using historical data • a simple monitor comparing live price vs expected close Example: today the system forecasts BTC around **\~$67.9k** with a predicted range roughly between **$64k and $71k** over the next few days. I’m mainly trying to answer a simple question: **Are short-term statistical forecasts in crypto actually useful, or are markets too noisy for this to work?** If anyone wants to explore the tool or share feedback on what looks wrong / misleading / useful, I’d really appreciate it. The project is here: [**c-pred.com**](http://c-pred.com) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Hazys

Depend your needs, obviously need to sell some BTC while profit. If not urgent need money can just stack when price is low.

One_Talk_3410

My plan is to play the cycles to acquire more BTC in my Roth. I follow power law forecasting and lower or raise risk based on that.

BuyTheDip_Repeat

Most people scale out rather than sell everything at one price usually into big round numbers and strong pumps. For BTC this cycle, I see many talking about taking some profits around $80k–$100k, but it really depends on your plan and time horizon. But most of people are waitting for years, not price based...

ATEFred

Then you sell when you need to buy a house, or take a loan out using BTC as collateral :)