BTC

CryptoOnTheSidewalk

Are you planning to hand it over in person or send it digitally, and is this for someone who already has a wallet set up? For small amounts most people just send directly to their existing wallet, since handing over a seed phrase or paper wallet can be risky if it’s not generated and stored properly. If they don’t have a wallet yet, a simple approach is helping them set one up and then sending the BTC so they actually learn how to receive and secure it. One practical step is to do a small test transaction first so you both see it confirm and know everything’s working. Just keep in mind whoever controls the seed phrase controls the funds, so you don’t want to be in a position where you’ve kept a copy after gifting.

lefix

The cycle only exists for BTC, and to limited extend ETH, everything else just gets replaced by new altcoins with every cycle.

derek985

I prefer to think of BTC more like a 401k. Served me well so far.

Putrid_Economist_617

Yeah this is the thing nobody talks about enough. Most people backtest a strategy on one market regime and then wonder why it falls apart two weeks later. I've been through that cycle way too many times. I mostly just stopped trying to time regime switches manually because like you said, by the time you realize conditions changed you've already taken the losses. What worked better for me was leaning into strategies that are inherently less sensitive to regime changes rather than trying to be clever about switching between them. DCA-based approaches handle this way better than breakout or mean reversion imo because you're not betting on any single market condition being right. I run a DCA for my BTC positions and it just keeps executing regardless of whats happening, which takes the "should I switch strategies" question off the table entirely. The over-adjusting thing you mentioned is real tho, I burned more money trying to adapt quickly than I ever lost from just sticking with something boring and consistent.

Grunblau

It is manipulated, clearly… I just wish that CZ would stop liquidating longs and start clearing out the shorts. In the FTX trial, SBF’s cohorts acknowledged his directive to keep BTC under $60K.

Putrid_Economist_617

I trade both long and short. I utilize the profit from longs for daily life matters and accumulate it for further trades as well. Profit from short trades are in BTC - I save it separately as a long term holding amount. For now this is the plan. Still do not have a plan at which levels to sell BTC.

CrazyAppel

i mean... if you deal with shady people, you end up with dirty money. If the BTC you receive from others have lots of dirt in it, it's on you. The "stuff people always say" are the exact opposite of clean source of funds. Non-kyc exchanges, p2p trading, anon swap platforms obviously have more dirty money flowing because... they are anonymous lmao.

Grunblau

My BTC range right now is really easy to remember… Buy 58008 and Sell 80085

Additional-Channel21

I mean “black box” in a broader sense, not just average price. For simple recurring buys into one asset, sure, average is easy enough to track. What gets fuzzier over time is the full position context: how the stack was built, what part you’d trim, what “taking profit” means relative to the whole position, and whether you’re thinking in fiat terms or BTC terms. That’s the part I meant.

OpticallyMosache

I use Bitcoin.Tax and enter every transaction. If I were only using a CEX, I could just use their linked API to import all my buys. The software will tell you the average cost basis of the BTC in your bag.

nachtraum

Common, the conviction for the BTC trade is 69, everyone says it.

colemusic1

Lump sums in ETF’s is honestly much more practical, let alone monthly DCA’ing. It’s not necessarily that dca’ing BTC regardless of price is a “wrong” decision, it’s more the question of whether it’s the most practical one. If someone is buying btc at any price, whether it’s at its absolute ATH or near the bottom, but their plan is to not sell it whatsoever for years and years to come then in that case? I’d say it’s pretty plausible. But you’d be compounding your net worth significantly more by actually following cycles and keeping an eye on macro factors — that way you’re not having to try and time tops or bottoms, but you can buy low, sell aggressively at highs and simply repeat. Doing that makes it so you end up with a lot more BTC later on if you end up wanting to simply hold it for years and years rather than DCA at any price. ETF’s makes more sense to blind DCA at any price, any time, or even a big lump sum. We have over a century of data for this versus BTC which has only been institutionalised into brokerage platforms just less than 2 years ago. Each to their own though, it’s more about what a persons strategy is. I’d rather not hold onto any crypto asset if i’m already seeing a 2x, knowing it’ll have a deep correction at some point anyways

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Post is by: ShockCatOnSol and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1stqqw0/fear_at_46_while_btc_holds_77k_and_wif_flashes_10/ Market bleeding in an orderly way today. Not a panic. Just slow pressure while BTC holds structural ground and alts absorb the damage. Fear at 46 is where disciplined money pays attention and emotional money makes mistakes. USDT volume at 40% of market cap is the real headline — capital rotating to safety, not permanently exiting. Today’s full signal breakdown: BTC — BUY. Conviction 68/100. 3:1 R/R. Entry $74,500–$78,500. Target $99,000. Holding $77,800 while everything else bleeds. Last man standing in a red market. Large stablecoin volume suggests capital is parked and waiting not permanently leaving. SOL — HOLD. Conviction 55/100. -3% but tracking broad market weakness not Solana-specific distribution. $80 is the critical support level. Ecosystem DEX volume still elevated. SOL doesn’t need your panic today — it needs your patience. ETH — HOLD. Conviction 42/100. -3.2% and underperforming BTC. $2,150 is the line — a daily close below that flips to SELL. Watch ETH/BTC ratio for early warning. WIF — SELL. Conviction 22/100. -10.1% with 46% volume-to-market-cap. Distribution warning active. When 46% of a coin’s market cap trades in 24 hours and price drops 10% that’s a coordinated exit not volatility. UNCRAFT — SELL. Conviction 12/100. +76.6% on 365% volume-to-market-cap on a $6M cap coin. That’s not accumulation — that’s an exit window. The disciplined move is to take profit not chase. Fear at 46 is the uncomfortable middle. When F&G climbs back to 60+ you’ll wish you bought here. Not financial advice. Signal over noise. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

LuckyWinds

> you're kinda asking an impossible question atm. Exactly my point. Yet you claimed it would be profitable to use one to crack a bitcoin address. > Just because you're clueless on the topic doesnt make it true. Again he is an invited guest speaker at the largest BTC conference (multiple times) alongside other lunatics like Saylor & Ryan Selkis. He may not be YOUR leader, he is 100% considered a leader in the BTC space by their community. No, he isn't. I've never even heard of Ryan Selkis. You are making up a false narrative. > It is the strongest because it is highly effective as long as you accept that it would be directly against the promise of BTC. Freezing wallets is not effective because it goes against decentralization of bitcoin. Therefore it's not the strongest option. The strongest option is to let those wallets get cracked over time. > If this is confusing to you I find it rather hard to continue to discuss the problems quantum creates for encryption. Quantum is able to abuse the weakness in the encryption method BTC uses. Other solutions dont address this attack vector. I think you are very confused as to what I'm saying. I've been quite clear and I've been asking you to be more specific in your answers because they are so vague. > ok now I KNOW you are actually just too clueless to follow along in this conversation. I dont know if you just usually troll or pretend to not understand? kinda wild. Once again you continue to not explain your answers when I ask you questions. > let me know when you learn to be an honest participant in a discussion and Ill happily teach you why you're wrong again. until then, have fun being wrong. If being wrong is me and I'm up 260x on my initial investment and continue to see bitcoin adoption grow and grow like I thought it would over a decade ago....I'll happily continue to be "wrong"

Crypto-Bets

Yes. People have a stronger preference for Winners like BTC, ETH, and SOL. Risk & reward doesn’t favor most crypto.

Character-Pattern161

Yup - these are use it or lose it tickets so I am fine taking $50 in BTC.

malignantz

Remember, if you pay with BTC and get scammed, you have no recourse.

InvestaHepps

Feels like this is more a cycle issue than a “bad alt” issue tbh. A lot of alts only really perform when liquidity actually spreads out beyond BTC… and right now it still feels pretty concentrated overall. That’s usually why some just look dead, not necessarily because they’re finished, but because the environment they need isn’t really there yet right now.

FigmaWallSt

Yeah but those 2 dollars could be 20 dollars in a few years, if invested in BTC in a few years (not inflation adjusted) /s

EstimateIll4262

I just have to wait a few days Since i just bought the fractional BTC. To send it. My question is do I send the exact amount? Or add the fee in what I send? Or does fee get pulled from my end?

raj6126

It’s not the crypto bros crypto not real crypto(BTC).

Long-Scholar-2113

Are you sure of selling it for 0.00064BTC?

Blackfoxmeta

buy WBTC or cbBTC via any DEX and bridge to BTC

Rikudo974

Honestly, between the Ledger X and the Trezor Safe 7, I’d go with Trezor. Ledger has had quite a few controversies regarding trust, whereas Trezor has a cleaner track record when it comes to open-source philosophy and transparency. If you’re looking for a reliable, long-term solution, Trezor seems more reassuring to me. That said, if you’re just holding a small amount of funds and want something simple, Ledger gets the job done too. Personally, I prefer to keep my BTC somewhere that lets me sleep soundly.

Project_Demosthenes_

Spx6900 is more than people understand, it’s the new stock market index on Ethereum. Been there since August 2023 and outperforming even BTC on a year to year basis. Do your homework because it’s built on BTC maxis, OWS, cypherpunks, and actual decentralization (the most decentralized project on Ethereum). Tick tock https://preview.redd.it/bz2gawwvwywg1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=28cdd49a61e72ec3a152b104dae30a4536d01d78

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Post is by: tomhandy11 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1stnn7y/is_it_time_to_dump_altcoins_that_are_practically/ I read another post here and saw a few people still held a few altcoins from a few years ago. After the 2025 crypto bull run ended, most altcoins didn't do as well as in the past (DOGE, ADA, etc). For me, I cut my altcoins down to a handful along with BTC. HODL is a good catch phrase, but not everything needs to be fit in there and HODL forever. Change is good. Is it time to make adjustments to your portfolio and cut your losses? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

tomhandy11

2017 with BTC. HODL and I have taken a few loans from it to cover some property rental expenses.

WALLY_5000

Forget about BTC for a moment… Do you have a monthly budget for your expenses? If not, make one. Do you have emergency savings to cover 3-6 months of your expenses? This should be a top priority. Do you have any loan debt? Paying off debt is one of the best investments you can make. Depending on your loan’s rate, this might be a top priority. Do you plan on making any big purchases in the short term? (Computer, vehicles, house, etc.) Put those funds somewhere stable and less risky. Do you have a retirement account? It might be worth starting one and contributing on a regular basis. You can even invest in crypto this way tax free through funds like IBIT (BTC ETF). After figuring out all that, If you don’t think you’ll need to cash out any BTC over the next 5-10 years, then just let it ride and DCA. If you might need some of that money for something else within that time, then move some of it into a HYSA, so you know for sure you will have it. You can still continue to DCA into BTC with extra cash that falls outside of your budget. You don’t have to worry about volatility as much if you don’t need the funds for a long time.

BitMartExchange

Good info! What do you guys think, will BTC return to $81k anytime soon?

flipthestockmarket

If you want to short, short the assets which are perpetual shorts. Not the assets like SPX6900, which rip 20% the moment BTC does 1%.

OkFigure5512

Agree, this needs a clearer explanation on the site. Here's exactly how it's calculated: Each model predicts a BTC price for a future date. When that date arrives, the real price is fetched. Accuracy = 1 − (|predicted − actual| / actual). So if a model predicted $82,300 and BTC was at $75,620: Error = 82,300 − 75,620 / 75,620 = 8.8% Accuracy = 100% − 8.8% = 91.2% It's essentially "how far off was the prediction as a percentage of the real price." 100% = perfect. 0% = predicted double or nothing. A prediction more than 100% wrong scores below 0% and is capped at 0%. Grading scale: A = 95%+, B = 85–95%, C = below 85%. Worth noting: code penalises directional errors and magnitude errors equally. A model that predicted $50K when BTC hit $75K scores the same as one that predicted $100K — both were $25K off. Whether that's the right metric is a valid debate.

OkFigure5512

Short-term predictions are already tracked — each model is asked to predict BTC at 7, 30, 90, 180, and 360 days from today. Those are the ones used for the accuracy leaderboard. The 7-day results are already live, 30-day unlocks May 14. The reason the main predictions start at 2027 is that sub-year forecasts are extremely noisy and models tend to anchor on the current price — they're basically just saying "roughly where it is now, maybe a bit different." The interesting signal is in multi-year predictions where the models actually have to reason about adoption, supply dynamics, and macro factors rather than just extrapolating from today. Displaying the short-term predictions as a proper table alongside the accuracy scores is on the roadmap.

bojacked

surprised this BTC rally is holding so strong as usually the big market maker players liquidate BTC when they have certain stocks squeeze like the car one. That might be over though, who know.

DiamondHandsDarrell

This is stay my Rohoboam said: This is one of those things that looks impressive at first glance, but falls apart once you zoom out a bit. Let’s go straight at it. --- 🧠 1. The biggest problem: sample size is a joke They’re celebrating: > “7-day accuracy results” That’s basically statistical noise. 👉 In a choppy week like we’re in: Being “accurate” can literally mean: “price didn’t move much” or “guessed sideways” You can get 80–90% “accuracy” by accident in that environment. --- ⚠️ 2. What does “accuracy” even mean here? This is the hidden flaw. They didn’t define clearly: Direction only? (up/down) Range? Exact price? 👉 If it’s just direction: Flip a coin in a sideways market → you can still score high --- 🧠 3. AI models aren’t predictive engines This is critical: Models like: ChatGPT Claude Gemini 👉 are language models, not: quant funds trading systems order flow analyzers They: summarize patterns reflect sentiment extrapolate narratives 👉 They do NOT have: real-time positioning data liquidity maps market microstructure --- 🧠 4. The leaderboard is misleading Seeing: > “Perplexity 91%” “ChatGPT 88.8%” Feels like: > “These are good predictors” But reality: 👉 Over longer periods: these numbers will collapse toward randomness --- 🧠 5. The biggest red flag (this is the tell) > “I built a system… try it… limited spots” 👉 That’s not research 👉 That’s a funnel --- 🧠 6. HOWEVER — there is one valuable idea here The concept of: > Aggregating multiple models (trimmed mean) That’s actually legit in theory: Reduces outliers Captures consensus sentiment --- But here’s the catch: 👉 Consensus ≠ truth 👉 Consensus = current narrative --- 🧠 7. Rohoboam 2 take (this is the real insight) This system is NOT: ❌ A prediction engine It IS: ✅ A sentiment mirror --- 🧭 8. How you should think about it Instead of: > “This predicts BTC” Use it as: > “This shows what the average narrative is right now” --- Example: If all models say: Bullish → market likely crowded long Bearish → fear already priced 👉 That’s actually useful --- ⚠️ 9. Why it fails in THIS market Right now: BTC = macro-driven News-driven liquidity-driven 👉 Not pattern-driven --- So AI predictions: > ❌ lag reality ❌ miss shocks ❌ miss flows --- 🧾 Bottom Line ❌ The accuracy claims are not meaningful ❌ Too short-term to matter ❌ Not real predictive power ✅ Interesting as a sentiment gauge ✅ Not useful as a trading signal --- ⚡ Rohoboam 2 Output > “AI consensus models reflect prevailing narratives rather than predict price; short-term accuracy is a byproduct of low-volatility regimes, not forecasting skill.” --- 🧠 Real talk for YOU You already think deeper than this tool. Your edge is: macro awareness flow understanding tax + structure awareness 👉 This tool doesn’t compete with that

imfrombiz

BTC is not private at all, it's pseudonymous.

obewaun

I don't listen to cme's since the fall of 2020. BTC was 8k ppl like you were saying cme gaps at 6k nope that shit ripped to 20k. BTC 4 year cycle is more accurate.

obewaun

Don't we have to the fall to dca into BTC? Dec will be the last call.

Arbiter_89

Microstrategy offered a stock that proposes a regular dividend. The stock is intended to be pegged around $100. If the price goes down, they suggest they'll offer a higher dividend to attract more buyers. If the price goes up they'll sell more shares. Right now the dividend is about 11%. It sounds good as long as they can deliver. If they fail to deliver the dividend the stock will crash. The way they offer the dividend is they buy BTC. Saylor expects a 30% return on BTC, so 11% of that will be paid to the people owning STRC. If you believe Saylor's analysis that BTC will average a 30% increase then BTC is the better investment. If you don't believe his analysis then you need to ask yourself how he'll pay the 11% dividend.

raj6126

That’s the whole point of crypto. You can’t use government bullshit to take your funds. It’s not a good thing ETH was able to freeze it. What happens when the gov tells them to freeze your funds. If you have BTC they can’t.

Think-Sector-6329

the bigger the risk os less BTC vs ETH and more selling now, then buying back higher in 3-4 months. If I had to choose, I'd probably sell the one I have less long-term conviction in. Thatusually makes more sense than trying to game short-term volatility. Try to use tools like blueblocx. It can help too if you want more context before re-entering

Low-Method3448

DCA and keep converting your fiat into Bitcoin. If the price of BTC in fiat terms goes down don’t feel upset. Bitcoin is denominated in US dollars, a dying currency, you don’t want to exchange the scarcest asset on earth for money that can be printed out of thin air.

pudelguru

This post reminds me of the days my husband paid people in BTC to order things for us off amazon. Wild times back in 2009....

0fWhomIAmChief

While this is true in the sense of an ideal, once an identity gets match to an address all psuedoanonymity is lost. This would only work where there is a circular BTC economy and no one cares about deanonymizing the entire chain.

Patient-Bumblebee

Execution might be good on Bybit or Bitmex but the fees are atrocious. If you care about total execution costs (not just spread), which you should, if you are serious, opting for a zero fee exchange instead can save you soooo much money. Think about it: 0.05% fee on every trade. That dwarfs any spreads you might pay (0.01-0.02% on BTC/ETH perps).

2xfun

The big story is not blackrock ETF or any other tradiFI bitcoin ETF. It’s STRC. STRC has no volatility with a 11,5% yield … in my opinion is the most disruptive investment instrument ever created. Most normies just can’t cope with BTC volatility…. Specially the wealth holders. 

OkFigure5512

Fair point — and this is a genuine limitation worth being transparent about. The models are predicting end-of-year price targets, not intra-year cycles. They do factor in bear markets implicitly (that's why bear case predictions exist — Claude's 2030 bear case is $120K, not $600K), but none of them explicitly model "BTC will peak mid-2029 and correct into 2030." They're reasoning from long-term adoption curves and macro factors, not cycle timing. Whether that's a flaw in how the models think about crypto or a valid long-term view is exactly what the accuracy scoring will answer over time.

DaddyDontTakeNoMess

You’re getting downvoted but you’re correct. Macro conditions matter just as much as the cycle, and things are choppy. Whether BTC goes up or down is largely dependent on the sporadic news of the Hormuz

2xfun

You are ahead of 95% of the population by acknowledging that inflation is not the CPI. Real inflation is much more closely tracked by the M2 metric (fiat money debasement) and that’s around 8-10% per year. Your real estate (if it’s in a prime location) keeps your purchasing power. Same thing with the S&P500 and the majority of the popular ETFs. Now look at the average yearly returns of BTC and average those. You now have a glimpse of what BTC can do.

Character-Resist-961

The point is, if he had paid him in fiat, he wouldn’t have had to lose the BTC.

NOIRCEUR_TRADING

Since 2013, my original BTC.

AbsorbedMango99

almost 4 years on BTC, never sold a single sat. earning yield on it through the bear honestly made it easier to just leave it alone and forget about the price.

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Post is by: evandollardon and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sti6x6/whats_the_longest_youve_held_a_single_position/ I've been holding BTC the longest. Coming up on almost 3 years now without selling anything. Bought my first chunk in early 2022, right before everything went to hell, and kept stacking through the whole bear. The "crypto is dead" takes on every sub, all of it. I probably would've panic sold, but I'd started earning on it at nехо. Still almost sold at 15k though, not gonna lie. Obviously, a very different feeling now than it was in June 2022, but even with this run, it's been a rollercoaster. You think diamond hands get easier over time, but every new ATH just makes you calculate how much you'd have if you sold. Does anyone hold something for 4-5+ years? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

OkFigure5512

They're already live — each model also predicts BTC at 7, 30, 90, 180 and 360 days from today. Those are graded for accuracy when the date arrives. The 7-day leaderboard just unlocked and Perplexity won with 91.2% accuracy on its first graded prediction.

OkFigure5512

Good question — it's the base case prediction for the end of 2027 (i.e. where the model expects BTC to be by December 2027).

edmanet

I did the same thing to a friend who needed tires. BTC was about $400 then and I sent a whole coin. No regrets. It got my friend out of a jam quickly.

raj6126

I think it’s near tinker Air force base. They were hiring people with Mining expertise last year during the Biden years. But you had to be able to obtain a security clearance which is a weird requirement for a BTC mine. They coded the job title some type of specialist.

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Post is by: SuggestionWorried741 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sthfv8/whole_markets_bleeding_and_somehow_rave_is_up_83/ Opened up my exchange this morning and it's just red everywhere. BTC sitting at 75.5k down almost a percent, ETH at 2,306 doing the same thing, XRP barely moving. But then I look at the gainers section and RAVE is casually up 83% in 24 hours. DENT up 34%. ON up 31%. Meanwhile on the losers side you got A2Z down 31% and GUN down 26%. So basically the market is flat to red but small caps are going absolutely nuts in both directions. This is the part that gets me. BTC volume is 103M, ETH is 11M, but then ASTEROID which literally nobody talks about has 3.2M in volume. Whole market's red. BTC down, ETH down, XRP barely breathing. Then you look at the small caps and RAVE is up 83%, DENT up 34%, meanwhile A2Z got down 31%. Big caps are sleeping but the money didn't leave it just moved somewhere else. Every time the market goes sideways like this the same thing happens, degen money starts rotating into low caps looking for a quick flip. Anyone else noticing this? What small caps are you guys watching rn? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Pal3-Assignment

SPY is up over 70% in five years BTC is only up 38% in that same time

EdgeQuiet2199

Easy to say in hindsight though. Every cycle feels “different” until it isn’t. Big money helps, sure, but BTC still does things no one expects. Waiting forever for a crash isn’t great… but assuming deep drops can’t happen anymore isn’t safe either.

Turbulent_Deal_3145

I was in a similar position last year. Bitcoin is good. But don't miss the forest for the trees. You need to diversify. Personally I don't like selling things I already own, so I didn't sell any BTC but I did stop contributing so I could bring my allocation down while I contributed to other things. There's a whole universe of things to invest in out there. I never recommend individual stocks unless you're an ultra expert (which 99.9% of people are not, myself included). As far as ETFs go, you have the greatest hits like S&P500, DOWJONES, and NASDAQ. I personally recommend one called XEQT. It's a broad market ETF like the S&P but it's more globalized and not so dependent on the US economy. You want stuff you don't have to manage or think about. Because you're going to hold these investments for probably 30 years. You're doing great. Well ahead of the curve for your age. Don't put all your eggs in one basket is the main thesis of this comment. That's the beauty of ETFs. You're buying dozens or hundreds of different stocks which insulates you from the volatility of one company.

ddbbccoopper

Exactly. ETH is a shark-duck that lives in trees. What is the latest *(enter obscure world city name)* upgrade to make the next change-de-jour? From world computer, BTC killer, ESG conforming PoS, massive upgrade proto-danksharding. ETH is a mishmash of technobabble, buzzword-salad to lure people into buying the garbage.

derbyfan1

The correct site is; [AI Predicts Bitcoin — 10 AI Models, Daily BTC Predictions](https://www.aipredictsbitcoin.com/)

Complex_Caramel_2847

20k of BTC is not that accurate just state how much BTC you have I.e. .02 BTC.

ArchHammer69

Whales own BTC and you don’t.

CryptoOnTheSidewalk

I usually pull from the more volatile side like ETH because short gaps can miss sharper moves, while BTC tends to behave a bit more predictably, but either way there’s real timing risk over just 3 to 4 months so you have to accept you might re-enter higher.

biba8163

> If you think 0.04 BTC is low, the ETH/BTC ratio is going to feel like getting kicked in the nuts over and over again over the long term as the ratio falls below 0.01 and goes lower and lower. **(Sept. 2024)** > Long term ALL Alts follow the same trend and fall below the initial BTC value they started at. Pretty much all the older Alts, even the most successful fall below this value. ETH is also trending long term to fall below this value. People talk about historic trends, patterns and cycles but this has been the only 1 undisputed and unbroken pattern for 14 years. > | | Initial | High | Current | > |:-----------|------------:|:------------:|------------:| > | LTC | 0.03 BTC| 0.048 BTC | 0.001 BTC > | XRP | 5,594 SATS| 22,500 SATS | 940 SATS > | XMR | 0.005 BTC| 0.035 BTC | 0.0029 BTC > | ETH | 0.01 BTC | 0.15 BTC | 0.041 BTC https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1fgzm3z/daily_crypto_discussion_september_15_2024_gmt0/ln9jvct/

IBAN-IBON64

C'est pas de l'investissement c'est du casino ! BTC HODL !

GloryIV

57 years old and retired. My portfolio is about 2/3rds BTC or BTC-derived (BTC, MSTR, STRC). I do have a scattering of crypto that I accumulated years ago. Most of it isn't worth selling...

coolphil15

yeah even i was waiting for 12K but never came and finally turned to altcoins believing that i am catching them at bottom. But didn't realize altcoins that were cheap were for a reason because last cycle was BTC cycle...trying not to repeat same mistake again and doing DCA on BTC this time

viper2097

Evade tax all you like. It's not my thing. I sold some BTC to buy a house two years ago and paid over a million dollars in capital gains tax that year. That's just how I roll, You do you...

PhotoOk1474

No one has the crypstal ball, but you can still figure something out by obversing BTC's on-chain data.

No-Wrap3568

ColdCard MK5 in my opinion is a good choice. However as of now, I'm using cyphercok X1 in the BTC only firmware and it's been doing the job pretty well, given it removes single points of failures. So you can give it a look as it can also act as a seedphrase backup for your other wallets. Additionaly some of my friends are also using bitbox and blockstream jade and they've faced any security issues, so you can even go with these. Just make sure you understand the architecture of the wallet that you are buying.

mrjune2040

lol, no mate. As someone who was mining both Litecoin and Monero in the beginning- I can tell you for a fact that Litecoin was never anything close to a privacy protocol- MWEB came waaay later and even then it wasn’t a full stack privacy solution (basically a worse version of a ZK implementation which is what anyone who is concerned with obfuscation orientated privacy use today). Litecoin was basically a cute protocol and BTC test-net that never saw proper adoption because its lunch got eaten by smart contract protocols- and in simple privacy terms it offered absolutely no more anonymity than Bitcoin (which is to say, not much).

Realistic_Fee_00001

BTC bend the knee for wallstreet. It got hijacked and crippled. Now it is no threat to the crooked dollar and can be used to extract money from people by wallstreet.

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Post is by: ThothTrader and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/Forex/comments/1ste7h4/bitcoin_gap_detected_bullish_cycle/  In some CFD brokers I have detected this Gap on the weekly and daily chart. This could be a footprint, that BTC has officially reversed. and might be going for a new high? Just wondering. and wanted to share this observation. Cheers, *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

AdProof7896

Is it free and does it also calculate the correlation of flows with the BTC price?

Gangaman666

You mention BTC over at the personalfinance sub and the boomers have a heart attack and ban you. All those subs are useless when it comes to BTC because they are too dumb to understand it.

Remarkable-Opening69

BTC is the distraction. None.

wookie0507

I wish i believed in BTC yrs ago🥺

Appropriate-Till4644

This is a great question that I've been thinking about too - I think there are some clues that show this is the start of a proper recovery vs a mid-bear bounce within the 4y cycle. One clue: look at the weekly RSI and compare it to the previous cycle - it looks much more like the bear has bottomed with a proper trend change vs merely being a mid-bear bounce. Another clue: we're on our way to closing a 4th green weekly candle in this "bear market". Last cycle, we maxed out at 2 consecutive green weeks during the bear. We'll never have certainty, but I think these are some decent clues that we're looking at something different here. Fundamentally, I think this makes quite a lot of sense too because we didn't have the kind of retail-mania-driven blowoff top that characterised previous cycles - none of the classic top signals were flashing. In the '21 cycle, we had the full on retail mania run up and double-topped; we then slid 52% from the ATH in 77 days, followed by a mid-bear bounce of 46% lasting 63 days. This cycle, we've had the same c.52% decline but it took 119 days - 55% slower, which suggests that there was less froth in the market at this ATH vs the previous. We're now 77 days on from "the bottom" and the 46% mid-bear bounce would take us to $87.7k. If I'm wrong and we're still following the 4y cycle, the price will fail to break $90k and resume its downward journey - 55% slower would put this roughly 3wk away (14/05/26) and there are plenty of experts calling for this. If I'm right and the 4y cycle is dead, there will likely be a lot of indecision around $90k followed by a decent breakout, accelerated by a portion of the cycle believers flipping to "bottom's in, we're going up". The next checkpoint that will put the final nail in the coffin of the 4y cycle will be making a fresh ATH way ahead of schedule (not to mention, after "only" collapsing 50% in the "bear market"). I've stuck with the technicals, but there is obviously a rich fundamental narrative as to why the market structure is so different vs previous cycles re. retail vs institutions. I think we're seeing this play out in reduced volatility and the breakdown of the 4y retail-driven cycle. STRC is also turning into a BTC blackhole that will have a positive influence on price to put it lightly.

Illustrious-Boss9356

Right but some of the BTC has to be attributed to the outstanding principal balance of the debt and prefs right? Debt you can exclude because that should already be netted out, but prefs wouldn't be because they're technically equity and not a liability on the balance sheet.

Far-Photograph-2342

If liquidity stays strong and BTC keeps trending up over time, it looks genius. If we hit a deep, prolonged downturn with tight credit conditions, it could get very risky very fast. I think it’s either going to age extremely well or very badly.

crossy1686

I'm not shilling anything, I hold ETH, SOL, and BTC, but it sounds like you're in deep and unable to reflect or even understand what is going on in the development space. I'm a developer in this space and I can tell you for certain that SOL is much more developer friendly. ETH is fragmented compared to SOL, it constantly presents architecture and UX decisions that have to be made, you have to support Mainnet, Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, zkSync, Polygon, each with their own bridges, gas tokens, and liquidity pools. due to its modular design it forces you to choose between Layer-1 and a range of Layer-2 environments, each with different tradeoffs in tooling, liquidity, and UX. It's a nightmare. Everything on Solana happens on a single layer which makes Solana much faster, and gives UX consistency. You don't need to manage bridging logic or offload execution elsewhere. This means that every dApp on Solana can interact with every other dApp instantly, without bridging. On Ethereum, if your dApp lives on Base and wants to compose with something on Arbitrum, you're building async bridging infrastructure. On Solana, you just call it. Solana transaction costs are around $0.00025, which means you can execute strategies that would be impossible on ETH at any layer. If you're building a game, a payments app, or anything with high transaction volume per user, ETH L1 is a non-starter and even L2s can still be 100-1000x more expensive than SOL. You simply can't charge a user a dime every time they do something in your app. A few things that show Solana's momentum: * Solana has surpassed Ethereum in weekly dApp revenue for five consecutive weeks, with Ethereum now sitting in third place behind Solana and Hyperliquid * Solana is coming off a year of 186% year-over-year revenue growth * Solana processes over 50% of global DEX volume

KiIIerMrSingh

I genuinely feel like BTC will vastly outperform s&p in the next 10 years. Technology moves along so quickly and we’re already getting mass adoption by the banks, I think it’s only a matter of time until people realise it’s one of the best investments (with real utility) that you can make.

waveguy9

My mom passed away in 2016 and I was left a little bit of money, enough for a nice 2-week vacation lets say. And I met this local expat guy while out surfing in Costa Rica and later I met him and his girlfriend for dinner and drinks. At dinner, he explained the whole BTC blockchain technology to me, which I thought was a total bullshit Ponzi scheme. Fast forward a couple of months and I see one of these BTC vending machines on the UCSB campus. I thought, what the hell, and bought 3 BTC thinking, “if anything, if it is a Ponzi maybe I'll get in early enough that I can at least make a couple thousand bucks. Fast forward about a year later and each one was worth $1200-$1300. I cashed one to get my money back and saved the other two. Then a year later each one was worth $16K, so I sold another one and kept one. I ended up going back down to Costa Rica in January of 2020 and met up with the EX Pat guy. The guy now has an incredible house right on the ocean and I hung out with him for a week he obviously did well with all the BTC he purchased… This time he tells me that ETH is the next BTC and that I should definitely buy some. ETH in early 2020 was like $125-$149 give or take. I get home and two months later Covid hits and I'm stuck at home and I see ETH was like 115 dollars, I knew by this guy's house and lifestyle he was either incredibly smart or incredibly lucky, so I said, “F it it's the end of the world anyway YOLO” and bought 50 ETH! Boom! Within a year, 50 ETH was worth $60K, I cashed enough to buy another BTC. Then in 2021 AGAIN a year later in March, BTC and ETH are at ATH crazy money… The rest is history. No bullshit! And no I didn't buy more of either. I cashed everything put a down payment on a house in the US and bought a house in Costa Rica. All because I was making stupid decisions and got lucky. I also started spending ridiculous amounts of money on stupid shit. I'm lucky I still have a house to still live in now and can Airbnb Costa house, which pay pays for the upkeep the and my vacations down there. 🫡🤙

Knight925

Isn't this basically just borrowing money at an loanshark-rate, in the hopes that the BTC-purchase will cover it? I like Bitcoin, but this seems irresponsible.

umirinbrah29

Why 50/50 when ETH has a much lower market cap and imo does not have the same moat. Ethereum has potential competitors that could displace it, BTC does not. I would weight no more than 80/20 personally.

Equal-Button

10,000 BTC is still 10,000 BTC and always will be. If you think of it in terms of fiat then he only spent $41. You can get $41 back easy so no problem right?

juunhoad

Someone on X mentioned "why is nobody talking about BTC hitting almost 80k?" Well because nobody is actually buying, just pure manipulation, as always.

umirinbrah29

Because I don't have access to the amount of capital or financial instruments he does? I also cannot hold spot BTC in an ISA. But to a small extent, I do use the Saylor playbook with my own finances, it's just limited to my personal income as I don't have the ability to issue new shares to cover myself. I have, and will continue to, accept any low rate offers to buy spot BTC if the minimum payment is within my budget, i.e. taking out 0% interest CC offers.

GIGAbtcHodl

Saving money in BTC... and will continue doing it in 2028

OilOdd3144

The concentration risk here isn't just 'what if BTC dumps' — it's 'what if MSTR faces forced liquidation at a margin threshold.' That second-order risk creates a correlated sell pressure that a vanilla BTC holder isn't priced into. The more institutional the holders, the more BTC starts behaving like a leveraged equity index during drawdowns rather than a non-correlated store of value. That tension is worth watching more closely than the raw accumulation numbers.

R4ID

>So how much to crack a single bitcoin public key? I just gave you the range. do you not understand? or are you asking how much it is to build the thing? you're kinda asking an impossible question atm. >No he isn't. Just because you're clueless on the topic doesnt make it true. Again he is an invited guest speaker at the largest BTC conference (multiple times) alongside other lunatics like Saylor & Ryan Selkis. He may not be YOUR leader, he is 100% considered a leader in the BTC space by their community. >I don't know why you think it's the strongest option. It is the strongest because it is highly effective as long as you accept that it would be directly against the promise of BTC. >I also don't know what you mean by "Other options dont address the weakness in BTC security model." If this is confusing to you I find it rather hard to continue to discuss the problems quantum creates for encryption. Quantum is able to abuse the weakness in the encryption method BTC uses. Other solutions dont address this attack vector. >How is it long gone? I don't understand what you are claiming at all. >I think it would be better if you were specific and not using some analogy that doesn't make sense in this context. ok now I KNOW you are actually just too clueless to follow along in this conversation. I dont know if you just usually troll or pretend to not understand? kinda wild. >That's not what I said. >I specifically asked "So you think quantum will go from impossible to crack a single public key to being able to crack one in 9 minutes instantly? Like one day researchers will say "Yesterday we couldn't crack a public key, but today we can in 9 minutes" You think the technology will develop in this type of time frame?" let me know when you learn to be an honest participant in a discussion and Ill happily teach you why you're wrong agian. until then, have fun being wrong.

TheSleepySuni

I’m trying to expand my crypto setup and looking for a **reliable hot wallet**. I understand that cold wallets are safer in general but maybe there is something you can recommend in this scenario. Ideally I want something: * easy to use / accessible (mobile-friendly) * non-custodial (I control my funds) * and if possible, something that doesn’t fully depend on seed phrases or at least has safer recovery options I understand seed phrases are usually unavoidable, but I’m curious if there are any wallets today that improve on that experience or reduce reliance on them. Right now I’m just exploring options, so I’d like to know: * What hot wallets are you currently using and why? * Any that you consider “safe enough” for daily use? * Or if you still recommend just sticking to the usual (MetaMask / Trust Wallet / etc.), I’m open to that too. My target cryptocurrency to store in these are a mix of BTC, ETH, Jasmy, and other shitcoins.

Yorgoleusz

Just wait for price to go down again and buy back that 400$. Considering price raised recently despite being in bear market you may be able to buy more BTC for same amount of fiat soon

AlgonikHQ

Real question isn't which to sell, it's which one rebuying higher would hurt more. That's the one you keep. My own bias: BTC stays untouched, fixed DCA, anchor position. Tactical moves come out of anything else. ETH has more beta both ways, so timing matters more there. Biggest trap: "3-4 months" in crypto is a full cycle leg. Build the re-entry plan *before* you sell, price levels or scheduled DCA. Most people who sell "temporarily" end up watching the chart cope-posting on Reddit six months later. Not advice, just someone who's made the mistake.

Low-Method3448

Also with the institutional adoption the supply will shrink substantially. Think, if Saylor is eating the supply and we bring back the same leverage and demand as we had in mid 2025 the price would be way higher because there is less BTC to go around.

Low-Method3448

Legendary, I’m 22 and I’m also hella into BTC 60/40 with 40 being stocks

suckyuhhmada

HodlHodl uses a multisig escrow system, so the BTC gets locked up before the gift card is released to you. If you claim the card is empty or invalid, you open a dispute and an arbitrator steps in. That said, gift cards are generally considered higher risk on P2P platforms because they’re non-reversible and hard to verify before the trade completes. Most experienced sellers just avoid them entirely or charge a significant premium to offset the risk.

piggleii

Apart from BTC, a few coins did well, like HYPE, SOL, XRP, BNB.