BTC

book4225

Thanks for your response. This is my first major BTC cycle, could you tell me if this usually happens once every cycle or how many times? Also, how big of a 'cycle' are we talking about? 1 year cycle, 4 year, or?

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Post is by: Ced-Invest and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1u234ol/bernstein_says_its_the_ai_trade_not_quantum_fears/ OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO on Monday, one week after Anthropic did the same on June 1. Anthropic's last private round put it at $965B, above OpenAI for the first time, with run-rate revenue crossing $47B in May. Meanwhile spot bitcoin ETFs are on a 13-day outflow streak, $4.4B pulled since May 15, IBIT leading the bleed. BTC is sitting around $62K after losing $60K on Friday. Bernstein's read is that this isn't quantum-computing fear or some structural crypto problem. It's allocation. The high-beta, "future of money" slot in a portfolio is a single slot, and right now it's being filled by AI equities and pre-IPO rounds, not by a non-yielding asset that just watched the 10Y climb back above 4.5% after a hot jobs print. What makes it worse for the bitcoin bid: when these IPOs actually price, you get a second drain. Crossover funds and retail money that would have rotated into majors gets parked in the new liquid AI names instead. The ETF wrapper was supposed to bring sticky institutional money. Turns out that same money has a shinier object to chase every quarter now. I'm not calling for a collapse. The flows are cyclical and could flip the day yields ease. But the "AI capex lifts all risk assets together" thesis is dead for this cycle, and anyone still pricing BTC off the Nasdaq melt-up is trading a correlation that already broke. Is this a temporary liquidity rotation that reverses once the IPO supply gets absorbed, or has crypto permanently lost the high-beta growth slot to AI? What's your take? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Rapetrain20148

Everyone saying BTC over ETH is crazy

darkpool_watcher

Because the moment Berkshire tried to buy anything close to 1 million BTC, the market would move against them. People often look at Bitcoin's market cap and assume you can buy huge amounts at the current price. You can't. There are only a few million coins actively available for sale, and liquidity gets thinner the higher the price goes. If Berkshire announced a plan to buy 1 million BTC, sellers would immediately raise their asking prices and front-runners would rush in ahead of them. In practice, buying that much Bitcoin could push the price up several multiples before the order was completed. There's also the Buffett factor. Berkshire invests in productive assets that generate cash flows. Bitcoin doesn't fit Buffett's investment framework regardless of whether it goes up or down. So the real question isn't "Why doesn't Berkshire buy all the Bitcoin?" It's "Why would Berkshire abandon a philosophy that has worked for 60 years?"

The_Vibe_is_Eternal

A lot of times they will buy BTC OTC and then when they sell, usually selling it on the open market

mrjune2040

Yeah there is zero chance they buy BTC, it goes against basically everything they look for in an asset class. But it’s not even the point of the thread really- OP’s just trying to apply pump and dump economics to a top 10 asset class, which just isn’t how sustainable market economies work.

GuidanceHot8396

Please try to convince me otherwise. Here is my understanding: 100 Billion is actually not a crazy amount of tokens based on calculations I've researched for the transfer of value. Standard fiat wouldn't loose value just because technologies would allow it was used over and over at a faster pace. It could increase the value with more availability to the unbanked. The price of XRP should be high if used anywhere close to scale to cover existing value. 1 - A high price will prevent slippage during large transfers, so if institution want to use it, they'll make ways to increase the liquidity. 2 - If traditional finance infrastructure wants to do this, they'll utilize ETFs and retail accumulation of a depleted available supply to begin the appreciation. Both of these seem to be possibly happening now. The thing that is so interesting about XRP is that it was created as a "store and transfer of value". Basically, it's like BTC but with huge utility potential. I don't see how it is not a great medium to log term investment. I was made to be the liquidity behind, in the background. There is nothing else really like it or in a position to be used because of the infrastructure Ripple has acquired.

Yesterday-Clear

Wait til $30k then buy two BTC

doyzer9

It all depends on your risk tolerance, let's say we have an economic disaster and or multiple negative factors and BTC drops 50%. Can you take the hit for 30k... and maybe wait 4+ years for a recovery... There is only one certainty, none of us know what's around the corner. Gamble inline with your risk tolerance. I feel BTC will skyrocket again, but no idea when. 🚀🚀🚀🌕🌕🌕 💰💰💰⏱️⏰🗓️ 🤔🤪🫪🤯

user_name_checks_out

> Are you talking in pesos because it certainly isn’t USD? 🤣 One million club = 21 BTC

SeparateCode2285

BTC is a spook that has a mind of its own - did your 5y old mind understand this?

_Stylite

This is not equivalent to 24hr volume because a giant portion of that is short term or intraday trading that doesn’t usually affect overall stability. It’s just money rotating in and out again much more quickly. There is even HFT activity on BTC inflating the daily volume. Your comment is misleading and MSTR affects BTC price more than its relative volume suggests.

Flaxk_

500 cigaretts (1BTC NOWWWWWW) and come back when its at 1MILLLLLLIONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

pk9417

I got in with average 45k$ price per BTC, so Im still in profit, but due lack in money, I dont can buy now more 😞 On top, comes the question, whether I should use my spare money for OpenAI IPO and dump it as soon it sky rockets or put in falling bitcoin?

unitymind42

About to is Oct-Nov, DCA now at nibbles is what I’ve been doing and only with BTC and Solana.

Ordinary_Inspector61

on Chain BTC is layer 1 / base layer, lightning is one version of a layer 2 if that's what you're asking

TOJAB66

i have FOMO right now, i already more than doubled my position in BTC this bear market but i am not sure if i should buy more or wait for even better prices investing in this right now seems to be more logical than incresing positiond on ETFs considering its valuations

AInception

Lots of CEOs do. Saylor makes his % either way. Toys-R-Us was bought and forced to sell off their properties to private shareholders. They rented the property back to store owners at unaffordable rates in a leaseback scheme. Everyone at the top made a killing, the stores all shut down, and thousands lost their jobs. Hell, you have a lifelong "CEO" running America right now undermining it for his personal profit. Told people to trust him implicitly, did a 3000% global tariff, crashed the market, cancelled the tariff by next Tuesday, then had bank execs in his office on TV bragging about how many billions they just made off a single trade. Then he did it 40 more times until TACO became a meme. It happens. Saylor doesn't really have a choice in the matter, though. He's turned his own company into a house of cards that's reliant on BTC doubling in the next 8 months or else he'll be forced to sell. Him even testing the waters is a red flag. He can see the writing on the wall, and needs to somehow acclimate the market to it or it will end his scheme prematurely. It's not his decision to make.

cyger

Waymo, may have more cars, but Waymo vehicles cost like $100k each. Waymo may lose $100 per ride, plus they drive through floods and interrupt emergency responders. Tesla is taking the long game and should be able to churn out cybercabs for $25k each. Tesla robotaxies will crush Waymo eventually. Anyway who knows for sure, but pretty happy I sold BTC for TSLA a couple years ago. Many hate Elon and our biased, but I think he is an incredible tech genius. I wish he had stayed out of politics.

Massive-Frosting-722

BTC is most definitely not the most appealing long play in the market. It’s a premier digital currency but it’s way to volatile and most smart money won’t touch it

stock-prince-WK

Funny cause I feel the total opposite of bullet point 1 I have a great feeling of uneasiness when BTC is pumping hard because I am still planning huge buys at current range or lower and seeing it take off hurts when I don’t feel like I have enough money in 😫 All that other FUD I don’t feel at all with Bitcoin. If you know you know. Nothing can waiver those feelings inside.

Jabulon

dont buy BTC since its crashing atm. It could go down to like 20k before it settles

LTP-N

False, and you have zero evidence to back that up. Anyone with a "substantial amount" of BTC simply bought lower.

Longjumping-Dog-6852

With stocks I tend to lump sum. History has shown that it's the best approach. With BTC I personally find DCA far more comforting mentally. I'm sure the chaps here with extremely high conviction might disagree with this approach, however I find I will be more likely to stay the course if I just set up the DCA to run automatically. I'll be back to check how it all went in a year or two.

cyger

They all get it wrong anyway. Still I must admit to selling some BTC to raise cash for the Space X IPO. I suspect I may only get 10 or 20% of my fill order, so may put it back into BTC.

SaeedOrkz

Solid long-term advice. I respect the BTC-only mindset. Right now I'm rebuilding and want to actively trade, but I'll make sure a portion of every win goes into cold BTC storage. Appreciate it.

Patient_Craft2195

3 years out is decent timing tbh. we now have spot ETFs (BTC and ETH) which changes the game. less exchange risk and more institutional flow. if you're starting out small, DCA BTC for a couple months as you get a feel for the market. don’t chase the alt action. there’s more sophisticated bots and on-chain plays now compared to 2022. what’s your appetite? long holds vs. active trading?

buy-high--sell-low

I wish I could afford tonbuy 0.1BTC today, if you can buy a full coin then why not.

Lavayo

Every investment is a speculation. Always. But of course there are more "speculative" investiojs than others. In our bubble BTC is the safe asset long term. Berkshire does not see it that way, they are very conservative investors. They might one day own BTC when Buffetts legacy can be put aside a bit and BTC reaches volatility of stocks like apple. But we are talking 8-16 years here probably.

repomies69

Many ppl who got rich with BTC/crypto came from the working class. It has been one of the few asymmetric bets. Not in the future I think, it will be more like modest return on capital, beating the index, but you won't 1000x your money. Anyway still good but if you are looking for a jackpot BTC ain't it anymore. Maybe shitcoins.

_Stylite

You mean like everyone in this sub clinging to the simple explanation that the current bear market is just due to some invincible 4 year halvening cycle? Maybe there is more going on? Maybe the largest BTC player selling will have some effect?

Quirky-Reveal-1669

Lol. OP claims never to have held or currently hold any BTC. And then goes through the hassle of shitposting in this subreddit. I bet that in real life OP is a buy high/sell low loser.

BioFrosted

Berkshire ended 2025 with $373.3 billion in cash, and as of Q1 2026 that figure had swelled further to around $397 billion. Bitcoin's total market cap currently sits around $1.23 trillion, which means 1 million BTC out of \~20 million in circulation would be roughly 5% of the entire supply. It cost something in the range of **$60–90B** before accounting for the enormous price impact of the purchase itself (the more they buy, the less supply, so the higher the price they have to pay for the next BTC). SO all in all, that could go up to **15–22% of Berkshire's reserves**. I don't know if it *wouldn't affect their cash pile*. Also, consider what happens on the way out: If they later want to realize those profits, what does a $60-90B sell order do to the market? Who's on the other side buying it? It's the supply thing but backwards - sell 1m coins and the price will fall with every coin purchased, perhaps even lead to a huge crash.

_Stylite

Right you need the currency to be centralized to affect the supply accordingly. So you agree it is better as an investment vehicle than a currency. To address the OP, I don’t see any good way BTC or any decentralized currency could actually work in this decade, or probably my own lifetime.

mrjune2040

BH’s strategy is entirely about long-term holds so it’s a non-starter. How the fuck would artificially pumping the price for a day work in their favour? And just because you fill a last buy price on an order-book doesn’t mean that price has new buyers on the order-book to sustain that price for meaningful amount of time. Doubling/tripling an investment is about realised gains, so there is no chance that any gains could be realised on anything other than a small percentage of their BTC. You’re thinking with the mindset of a Pump-fun investor and don’t understand how a real-world market functions for a top tier asset- childish market manipulation ain’t it.

oneden

AI copium slop. Truly, that will convince people to throw their livelihood into BTC

Interesting_Loss_907

That’s why there will probably always be fiat currencies. I don’t think BTC is likely to *replace* fiat entirely. But it offers a long term savings vehicle for people to save while spending fiat.

Low_Result6574

Plus Buffett has been pretty vocal about crypto being worthless speculation for years now 💀 guy still thinks newspapers are a solid investment so expecting him to suddenly pivot to BTC is kinda wild The liquidity alone would be nightmare - even if they somehow managed to buy million coins without completely breaking the market, good luck trying to exit that position without tanking everything

Internet_is_tough

Berkshire Hathaway buying 32 BTC would be enough to moon Bitcoin.

_Stylite

I agree that the supply would only be slightly affected. The reality is that for a modern currency you actually want to be able to affect the money supply in both directions - a currency that is strictly deflationary like BTC is not good for all scenarios and would fail like commodity backed USD banking failed.

__redruM

Maybe neither event really moved the market. Maybe Iran agreeing to take payment in BTC for crossing the straight did, and that’s fizzled out.

_Stylite

There is a lot of BTC in dormant wallets. If that was dumped on the market after being cracked it could cause a modest supply shock.

Potential_Time5469

RSI is multi year low, 1 BTC is the best call!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sonicode

So Strategy constantly buying metric fucktons of BTC is now "baked in" to the Bitcoin price. Got it.

Longjumping-Low3164

Why do you think market collapse has anything to do with Strategy selling 32 BTC?

piggleii

Well, now you have the opportunity to buy BTC way down from the top. But damn, it could go down more, couldn't it? Why must it be so difficult?!

amicablegradient

They sold 32BTC on the open market and then bought 1000 BTC over the counter.

TheSlipSlapDangler

Interest rates are going up. Debt is more expensive. Most money exists as a form of debt. As long as you price BTC in dollars it will be interest rate sensitive.

colonisedlifeworld

1 BTC

Aeschbacher15

I'm a DCA > everything type of guy. You can simply open the all time BTC chart and see how impossible it is to predict where the price goes next. For the sake of your mental health, just buy monthly/weekly and enjoy life.

Flexerrr

Sure he sold 32BTC to crash HIS OWN investments. Just genius. Funny that you think it’s true

baIIern

I've made 50k in BTC profits because I've sold in 2025 ;D

ItsNotTheButterZone

21 million BTC could be bought across all exchanges & OTC & the price would still tank. Bullshit.

zymero83

Was genau dargestellt wird:Die rote Fläche (Supply in Loss): Zeigt die absolute Anzahl an Bitcoins, deren Preis zum Zeitpunkt ihrer letzten Bewegung auf der Blockchain höher war als der aktuelle Marktpreis. Die Halter dieser Coins sitzen also auf unrealisierten Buchverlusten.Die weiße Linie (Bitcoin Price): Zeigt den historischen Kursverlauf von Bitcoin auf einer logarithmischen Skala.Die Kernaussage und historische Bedeutung:Antikorrelation: Die rote Kurve verhält sich genau spiegelverkehrt zum Preis. Fällt der Bitcoin-Preis drastisch, schießt die Anzahl der Coins im Verlust nach oben, da viele Investoren zu höheren Kursen eingekauft haben.Markt-Tiefpunkte (Bottoms): Die Grafik verdeutlicht, dass extreme Spitzen in der roten Zone historisch mit den makroökonomischen Tiefpunkten von Krypto-Bärenmärkten (z. B. Ende 2014, Ende 2018, Ende 2022) zusammenfielen. Wenn mehr als die Hälfte des gesamten Angebots im Verlust ist, erreicht die Verzweiflung im Markt meist ihren Höhepunkt (Kapitulation), der Verkaufsdruck lässt nach und eine Trendwende nach oben wird wahrscheinlicher.Der aktuelle Höchststand (Rechter Rand): Die rote Kurve schießt ganz rechts steil nach oben und erreicht laut dem Reddit-Post die Marke von 10,5 Millionen BTC. Da die Gesamtmenge an Bitcoins historisch angewachsen ist, markiert dies in absoluten Zahlen einen neuen Rekord, was auf eine massive Bereinigung und potenzielle Bodenbildung im aktuellen Marktzyklus hindeutet.

boostboi

Look at SPX over the course of the last few months BTC's movements are tied to equity markets, especially now with BTC ETFs and other crypto ETFs. These have been trending down over the last few weeks so naturally BTC will too

mathcampbell

Red. Cos my child wouldn’t have been born. Wasn’t an easy pregnancy for my partner and so many variables can change everything so we might never have had our daughter. Everything could be differnt etc. However…if you ask “go back to 2010 for exactly 1 day as my current self, then return to now and not remember that day until I’d got back”, I’d go back, buy alllll the bitcoin instead of the small amount I had, then everything else carries on as normal. I then arrive back here with my wallet, go online, sell say 500BTC now and then hold the rest. Honestly tho I’m not greedy. Current price of bitcoin would mean 21BTC is about £1million. Annoyingly I \*had\* 15 BTC at one point. Lost a lot trading it, and kept about 3 on my online exchange for safe keeping. MtGox to be precise. So yeah, I’d settle for 21BTC over never having my daughter and the last 16 years. But a day in 2010? I’d be uber wealthy.

s1pu

If someone acts like he'll never sell BTC, and then he sells, it causes uncertainty. Simple as that.

VulturicAcid

Saylor is not the Bitcoin CEO. In fact, that's one of the problems of investing in BTC. There's no plan, there's no strategy, there's no management you can put the blame on when things go south. The reason people here say: "price go up, price go down", or "nobody knows shit about fuck", is because really nobody actually knows why the market moves a certain way. And anyone that tells you they do is highly speculating and has no actual source or info to back it up. So your initial question is also frivolous because nobody knows.

Caliboros

The advantage of decentralization and self-ownership is that you CAN choose to use an intermediary at any time—you don’t have to. For example, I CAN store my coins with a provider. What if I forget my password? No problem—the provider will let me back in. I just have to trust the provider and can switch to another one. The same goes for your grandmother. With Lightning, we already have a method that moves coins without physically moving them. You COULD also implement something like this more broadly, so that your grandmother and I are essentially in our own sub-network. The big emphasis is always on voluntariness. Because of the structure, you CAN do something like this—you don’t have to. With fiat currencies, I HAVE to trust my bank, and the bank HAS to comply with legal requirements, etc. The second point is protection against inflation. Most Bitcoiners are welcome to criticize me here, but the idea that BTC is inflation-proof is based on the notion that it cannot be arbitrarily increased and that inflation is solely the result of the money supply. I would disagree. It matters how much money is in circulation, and due to commodity shocks like oil or energy, I generally can’t distinguish a price increase caused by that from one caused by something else. Both are inflation. In my view, Bitcoin is therefore no better or more special a hedge against inflation than other things.

Realistic_Fee_00001

The OG plan was that fees will pick up the slack but BTC botched it.

Realistic_Fee_00001

>Well, unless the value of Bitcoin goes up proportionally, Which is impossible if you know your exponentials. You don't need many doublings to get a value vastly bigger than all value on earth. And in the end Coinbase will be zero meaning price must be infinite anyway. The OG plan was that fees will pick up the slack but BTC botched it.

Realistic_Fee_00001

BTC derailed the narrative to "getting rich quick" after 2017. It is hard to swim against the current. Once this narrative has been proven wrong and it seems we are close to that people might listen to the sane voices again.

Moist_Succotash_9325

Good question. I’m not feeding an LLM raw tick logs and asking it to trade. The current system is more feature/scoring driven than “raw price action into model”. Right now Trado works mostly on closed candles and derived signals: technical structure, volume, VWAP, support/resistance, CVD divergence, volume profile, liquidation-cascade style patterns, funding, order book imbalance, BTC macro regime, volatility/regime filters, etc. Those are combined into a scored signal with an SL/TP plan and risk checks. I agree with your point on feature selection. Raw ticks are noisy, and for this kind of system I’d rather feed normalized/statistical features than raw market data. Z-scored order book imbalance and liquidation density are exactly the kind of features I’d consider more useful than generic OHLCV. On latency: I’m not trying to make this an HFT system. The worker is closer to a minute-level scanning/execution loop, mostly candle-close based. Hyperliquid’s speed matters more for clean execution, reconciliation, slippage control and account state than for sub-second prediction. If I add heavier ML inference, I’d probably keep it out of the critical execution path or precompute features so the signal engine only consumes normalized inputs. Curious how you’re building the liquidation heatmap side: are you using exchange liquidation prints, estimated liquidation levels from OI/leverage assumptions, or a vendor feed? Free / educational only, not financial advice. Mostly interested in comparing feature engineering and execution architecture.

OtpyrcLvl1

"Decentralized currency" is simplely a marketing term that the crypto industry made up to feed off of insecurities of the people on the Internet who believe the Federal reserve and other "Central Banks" take away the freedom of individuals. That type of rhetoric is only made possible because the generations that had to live through 2 world wars and a great depression have left us. When economies are stable, world wars are less likely. In the Western world, we have seen many countries go through terrible financial crisis and some one thought.. Hum I wonder if I could create a technology that could help the average person when their economy explodes. Great idea, however, like everything in the West people stated to make it a toy for the wealthy to exploit. Thinking that Bitcoin, or any crypto is "decentralized" shows a misunderstanding of the technology. In order for a transaction to take place, it happens on servers owned by people who can afford Datacenters of GPUs with cheap power. Remember everything you hear is marketing language to give the few people who have large stakes in Bitcoin, your money. Crypto has turned into a way to get the poorest, to give their money to the wealthiest. Now at a global scale, on your phone. Don't listen to this idea that Scarcity of something, means it's valuable. Anchovy Ice Cream is scarce, it doesn't mean anyone wants it. Lots of other questions you had like inflation, showed a misjudgedment in time. If your value was based on 2021 to now than BTC is still up 75%. Remember that currency is all made up. If it is traded in commodity markets than it is as Real as every other currency traded against it. Which then goes back to my point that "Decentralized" is just marketing. Because "computer money" sounds like a scam 😂

MakeItMine2024

There is a guy on YouTube Joe GRAND https://youtube.com/@joegrand?si=jcmFsJhjf-cBfV3j that hacks old phones but I believe his fee is 1/2 the proceeds .. Even at 1/2 of 300 BTC you have 9 million which is better than all of nothing

Igily_Goo69

Why only BTC, we have knowledge of everything so it's better I go to the past

Upbeat_Acanthaceae41

How is this even a question? Getting less than $2m now heading into a probable recession / possible depression vs Being able to buy BTC @ sub $1 knowing what’s to come and being 10 yrs younger Unless you’re younger than 30 the choice is obvious.

Environmental_Ice_80

decentrali Wat? XD number of BC ~ 21.000.000 State / Government holdings: · USA: ~205,000 BTC · China (seized, mostly sold): <50,000 BTC · Ukraine: ~46,000 BTC · UK: ~61,000 BTC · Germany (mostly sold now): ~0–10,000 BTC · North Korea (hacked): ~50,000 BTC · Other governments: ~30,000 BTC   → Total government known: ~250,000–330,000 BTC · Satoshi Nakamoto (unmoved early blocks): ~600,000–700,000 BTC · MicroStrategy (Michael Saylor): ~400,000–500,000 BTC · BlackRock, Fidelity etc. (ETF custody): ~800,000+ BTC · Exchanges (Binance, Coinbase — user funds): ~1,000,000–2,000,000 BTC. so how many is left for the rest of the "paying customers" ? XD

TechnologyLeft5240

Do I have a story about this? - I claimed 10 $BTC from a faucet back in 2010. I deleted the wallet.dat file but saved a copy in my Yahoo Mail. Then I completely forgot about it until 2021. By then, I had lost access to my Yahoo account because it kept asking for a verification code sent to a phone number I no longer had. I contacted Yahoo, and they told me that accounts inactive for more than two years are usually deleted permanently. - I found $EMAX when its market cap was still extremely low. I told my brother I wanted to invest $5,000, but he advised me not to. The very next day, it skyrocketed. That $5,000 would have been worth around $500,000. - I bought $LUNA at $0.50, investing a total of $1,000. A few hours later, it crashed to around $0.0000006. I literally watched it hit the bottom on KuCoin while most other exchanges had already delisted it. I wanted to buy more, but I was too afraid because my initial $1,000 investment had already become practically worthless. Had I invested even another $100 at that point, it could have turned into around $100,000 the next morning. - I bought $MINIDOGE when its market cap was still below $1 million. I invested $600, and the following week it was worth around $10,000. I didn't sell because I thought it would keep going higher. Instead, it crashed, and I eventually sold for only $1,200. - I've been following $CFG for a while and always had a feeling it would drop to around $0.50, so I placed a limit order for about $15,000 and waited. When I saw it hit around $0.60 last February/March, I still didn't pull the trigger. Then in April it got listed on Binance, and by May it had reached $3. FAKKK! I researched SPCE when it was trading at around $2.40 and seriously considered investing $10,000. But I was too scared to buy, even though I had a strong conviction about it. Then it skyrocketed to $8. FAKKK! I swear on my life I'm not lying and I always feel mad and sad about these chain of unluckiness because WHY ALWAYS LIKE THIS!!!

ScutumSobiescianum

BTC is cooked. MSTR is on the cusp of saying goodbye

Ok_Knowledge_4977

I am not too sure if Strategy selling of 32 BTC has caused the market to “collapse” but Strategy buying of BTC sure does not help to push the price up!

flowexplorer

Rational investors don't buy or sell based on what happened in the past, they do based on what they think is going to happen in the future. So the 32 BTC sell wasn't the reason, that's the past. The market reacted to what it thinks that signals about the future.

Original-Season-9941

Saylor selling 32 bitcoin didn't directly tank the price. If the fall in price was linked to Saylor's sale it would have been because traders panicked and sold a lot of bitcoin. Saylor has previously said MSTR will never sell bitcoin, so although his sale was small, the fact that he sold any demonstrates that he is no longer committed to never selling which could be enough to scare traders. Him buying 1000 BTC is not notable to traders because he does that often.

Impossible-Magician

I’d pay 21 BTC to go back.

sylsau

**🚨 STOP trying to guess the Bitcoin bottom. You’re playing a dangerous game.** Trying to catch a falling knife in a bear market is how retail investors get wrecked. The smart money isn’t panicking—they are quietly accumulating. Right now, three of the most historically unbreakable on-chain metrics are converging to create the ultimate "Golden Zone" for Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) between **$48,000 and $58,000**. If you want to build generational wealth, here is the data-driven blueprint: 📉 **1. The Bitcoin Power Law (\~$58k):** This mathematical model has tracked BTC’s growth since 2009. The $58k level is the macro support and your trigger to start aggressively scaling in. 🧠 **2. Long-Term Holder Realized Price (\~$49k):** This is the true cost basis of the "Diamond Hands." At $49k, selling pressure dries up and high-conviction investors build a massive buy wall. 🔥 **3. The CVDD (\~$48k):** The absolute floor. Historically, the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed metric has pinpointed exact market bottoms. If we hit $48k, it's the ultimate asymmetric risk/reward setup. **Your Action Plan:** Stop letting the summer market lull and macroeconomic noise shake your conviction. Master *Dynamic DCA*. Increase your buys as we push deeper into this $48k-$58k sanctuary, and let the math do the heavy lifting for the next bull run.

Arijan101

I don't know where you got this information, but I'll assume you're making it up, because here's the information available online: El Salvador's Bitcoin treasury has experienced significant volatility and is currently in an unrealized loss of roughly $300 million, largely due to a recent market slump that pushed the country’s overall paper valuation down.Because the nation employs a long-term Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy—often buying "the dip" and accumulating one coin daily—its portfolio metrics have fluctuated heavily:Total Holdings: The country holds approximately 7,474 to 7,677 BTC.Current Value: The stash is valued at around $460 to $480 million.Financial Impact: These unrealized paper losses have strained local bond markets and complicated the country's ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a $1.4 billion.

AdDecent3079

It makes some people feel better about themselves. They spent ridiculous amount of time reading this stuff, and now they feel “enlightened,” they know better. Having read tons of stuff on btc myself, i find this approach as nonesense. BTC is not what it was meant to be, it evolved sideways into a hype hopium investement. If you invested 5 years or longer ago and held, good for you. For current day investor it means nothing. you don’t need to spend countless hours before investing in bitcoin, and you might make better decisions than those that did invest their time. Just so what works best for you. In general its good to have Some basic understanding in what you’re investing, be it btc, gold, stock etc. In my view diversification is key, but that’s just me. ;)

choochoomthfka

Each lightning channel is a 2-out-of-2 multisig wallet that sends pre-signed on-chain transaction, just doesn't redeem them right away. But either side has the chance to redeem them at any point. Real BTC. Calling that an IOU is an outright lie. Learn your stuff.

Upstairs-Ant-3917

Dollar cost averaging, basically the idea is that you don't pay attention the ups and downs and just invest in intervals, and on average, the market goes up, BTC gave you a CAGR of around 20% the past few years, so that's what DCA'ing will do for you too instead of chasing wild gains that no one can predict

Great-Willingness-57

Strategy is a company who's main goal is to hold BTC. Their vision was to never sell it. Them selling BTC shows that they lost their vision and no longer trust BTC. Therefore that created fear among the market. Other companies buy and sell BTC or stocks for investment. So no alarm if a company (who has other interest and profits) choose to exit the BTC market. Strategy has no other form of income. BTC doesnt give dividends as well. So MSTR had to give out dividends, so the Strategy had to sell some to get the cash flow.

yesdaddy_____

I know I had hundreds of btc based upon pictures and screen shots on my phones I had after the one in question. There is no PIN or password. It's also been a long time since I used Linux, Which I'm aware is the best OS to try to recover the BTC

Major_Fox_2587

Because the market didn't collapse because of the 32BTC sell. Neither of those things were big enough to move the bitcoin market. Theres no way a 32 BTC sell would tank bitcoin, Approximately 35,000 to 45,000 Bitcoin (BTC) are traded every hour on average - so the 32 BTC sell wasn't even noticeable. Bitcoin is tanking cause it purely relies on how much extra money people have for risky investments. And right now that happens to be low due to the slumping economy. People need to pull out cause they lost their jobs or just dont want risk right now. Fear is high in general and thats what really killed the bounce we saw. It was a dead cat bounce in a rough current market. Every other explanation is a minor excuse. Have patience, itll probably come back eventually. Its still a good long term play, in ten years chances are it'll be up.

EstimateIll4262

I do have BTC. and more MARA than you will likely be worth in your lifetime. But OK.

Son_of_Sephiroth

21 BTC rn because even if I went back to 2010 I’d probably still blow it somehow 😂

matthegc

Fiat currency is controlled by governments who simply print more out of thin air….cheapening your time and effort that you put into earning that same fiat currency. BTC supply is set….no one can increase it on a whim, it’s on a set schedule. BTC conversion rate back to any fiat will always increase because the value of the fiat will always decrease due to governments simply creating more supply year after year.

Wildwildworld123

ETH will be around in 5 years, but i dont expect any new ATH. Just my opinion of course. Im only holding BTC at the moment.

EstimateIll4262

He has 0 BTC now And neither would you. Good luck

Wrong-Contest-9617

It is a fad no way this will stick. Do you really think the US or any government will accept taxes in BTC, when they have their own ccys that they control?

mel2000

> btc tanked to 16k after the FTX collapse. BTC also went over 120K after the FTX collapse.

teunbtc

It really depends on the situation.  In Germany, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are classified as private Veräußerungsgeschäfte (private disposal transactions) under § 23 EStG. When it IS taxable: You sell or spend BTC that you held for less than 1 year any gain is taxable as income The gain = current value at time of spending minus your original purchase price When it is NOT taxable: You held the BTC for more than 1 year, completely tax-free, regardless of the gain Your total gains from all such transactions in that calendar year are under €600 (minor threshold)

Blackiris-Code

Can you have physical BTC? No, only a hardware private key but the BTC is digital. You can move out of the US no matter how much USD you have in your bank accounts.

ReasonableSeesaw4801

Yea cause that's exactly what youd do in his position, hand 900 BTC to a stranger. Yea right....

Illustrious-Boss9356

I disagree that the subsidy becomes trivial only into the 2100's, I think that even with a $1m BTC price, the subsidy will shrink to effectively nothing within 10 years (3 halvings). Each block subsidy will be less than 1/2 of a bitcoin then. And real world fiat costs will likely increase for miners and nodes for the necessary quantum migration. I'm not suggesting there isn't a solution, but it likely won't solve itself.

Billkr

That is not the same as freezing your accounts. Don't be glib. You can take anything by force. It's simply a matter of how hard. I have had my accounts frozen before and all it took was a sternly worded letter from the government. You you have to catch me and torture me to get my BTC.

Illustrious-Boss9356

If you are sending real BTC and not IOUs, then what is the difference between lightning and the main chain?

Illustrious-Boss9356

You're 100% spot on in your thinking. Unfortunately this rabbit hole applies to any asset being rehypothecated. The solution is for the asset to have a use case in and of itself. For example, Gold is valuable because it's scarce. But most people own paper gold or ETFs. So because those can be printed ad infinitum, gold doesn't actually to up in price until the holders demand physical gold not just paper. Same with Bitcoin. If everyone is on just using Lightning or even worse, holding Bitcoin via ETFs, there becomes no reason to transact on the base layer. That does 2 things: 1. The price of BTC stays low because it's no longer scarce and 2. Lowers the security budget of the network. This is why people should use Bitcoin and if that trend continues to trend down, I suggest you slowly liquidate your Bitcoin in the coming years.

Big_Travel537

The altcoin rotation thesis you're laying out isn't crazy, I've seen that play out before where small caps hold strong right before a broader leg up. That said, the weekly support levels on BTC still look fragile to me and one bad micro print could invalidate the whole set-up pretty fast. Also don't forget to zoom out: if we uphold the four year cycle again, which I believe we will, any pump is temporary - we're heading to a market bottom EOY. But there's always good pumps to be had on the way down too, just keep the macro in mind so you don't roundtrip it down and negative. I've been using Prophet lately to get a second opinion on stuff like this since you're trading directly against AI odds rather than trying to guess what other degens think, which gives you a clearer read on actual probability. Helped me stay a bit more grounded during the last shakeout instead of just vibes trading. Stay and clean and emotionless when trading. No hopium.

Interesting_Loss_907

But over a 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12+ year time frame it has majorly *outperformed* the S&P. Also over a 4 year time frame BTC has outperformed the S&P.

Elmaster110

Bro even BTC is in a shithole and you wanna buy no name alts ? Gl

Sklaffer465

I did a small editing job for a techie client in May 2012. He offered to pay in Bitcoin. I asked for dollars. $600 or 100BTC. Yes, there are regrets in life.