BTC

WolfBob808

How low does BTC and MSTR have to go before MSTR stops paying dividends on STRC, STRD, and STRD? Or is that a question for the MSTR sub?

cubeeless

BTC to $400k!

Lavayo

Yes. That's why I did not make any prediction. The only reasonable outlook that any BTC hodler should have is "goes up with time". Those "5y no progress" posts are cherry picked. We could drop from 500k to 126k in October of 2030. Would have the same scenario.

CyberCrud

I love it when we're ½ way through the cycle and people say crypto is dead.  That's how you know it's time to buy.  Been through this for three cycles now.  And in Summer of 2029 when BTC is ~$200k they'll complain that they wish they bought in 2026.  

PayPerTrade

The point is “why 5 years?” If you look at 7 years BTC is going to be way better

AlphaRanger88

You lost me at the secret government meeting with 250 people who all supposedly bought Bitcoin before everyone else. 😂 But buried underneath all the conspiracy theories, there's actually an interesting argument. Governments and institutions accumulating BTC while stablecoins and blockchain payment infrastructure become more mainstream is a legitimate trend worth discussing. The problem is that institutional adoption doesn't automatically mean governments are secretly coordinating prices or that a specific low-cap token will become the backbone of global payments. Also, holding Bitcoin on a government balance sheet doesn't magically erase national debt. Assets and liabilities don't work that way. I'm bullish on the long-term potential of crypto, but we need to separate actual adoption from speculation. Otherwise, every market correction becomes a secret master plan and every altcoin becomes the next Visa. Genuine question: what concrete evidence connects Founders Fund's investments to the specific government rollout you're predicting?

Dr_Zoonotikstein

Someone posted a suicide PSA on the MU (IIRC - maybe it was another semi) forum a week or so ago. Same difference, really. BTC seems to track with high-beta tech stocks nowadays.

MajorBath9203

The issue with BTC is… it’s useless … literally useless … like that is the actual point of it ? You can’t spend it , it’s digital and you can’t turn it into anything like jewellery, it doesn’t create anything or products or add value to anyone’s life, it’s just a random digital game that everyone buys into hoping it’ll be their retirement plan because they’re terrible at actual investing and lost all of their previous money gambling it. I’m very open to dialogue so please educate me and I’ll listen to your argument and genuinely try and understand your point, because as it stands this whole digital coin thing seems like one big FAD. :)

Status-Tea-1478

I understand your point. The thing is I talked about it just before it happens. Look at my explanation on my profile. 81d ago. I was waiting for a Weekly breakout (That happened) and then a drop. Why ? expecting people to be waiting for more. They were all like « To the moon ». That’s how liquidity is engeneerd. Making alot of folks buy (FOMO) so you can sell all your bags easily. The look at when I posted another time about it. 33 days later. 54d and 53d ago (21 of september) What happened this day? BTC Top.

Alexander-305

One thing I'd add to the leverage-flush read: on BloFin's BTC perp, open interest went from about 4,639 BTC at 8:30am ET to about 4,711 BTC at 1:19pm ET, while price slid from roughly 66.6k to 65.8k. Funding is still slightly positive (around +0.006% per 8h on BloFin, +0.004% on Bitunix), so shorts aren't crowded yet either. Rising OI into a falling price can mean fresh positions are opening rather than just longs getting closed out, so the flush might not be fully done. That's one venue's data, not the whole market, and not a call. Agree on staying off leverage until the weekly close. (we partner with both of those exchanges)

usa_reddit

Crypto is too risky, to make exchange and wallet hacks. I am not moving my life savings into crypto only to get it stolen by North Korea creating hacks using AI and NVIDIA cards. I like to think companies like TD Ameritrade, Schwab are better and safer choices. When I can trade BTC there maybe I will experiment, but I don't want to be on the hook if it all gets stolen.

blucheese_coldbru

I'm not holding any ltc. I'm not sure if I made it clear, I liquidated and took my gains in gold and silver and then just moved it all into BTC since. I haven't been in any coins since 2021 as I mentioned it in a another reply here but a best friend of mine who I literally saved ended up stealing my keys and draining my wallet dry.

Vilomoja

BTC price has been based on the 'greater fool' theory for quite some time, it's just there is currently a shortage of fools.

Ruzhyo04

Yes, and places that allow me to spend BTC and ETH will never take harambecoin or sixseventoken. Another example, let’s look at things that have value but aren’t money. Your child draws a precious picture of you two in a hug, at your favorite place together. You want to hang it on the fridge and save it forever. I come along and tell you “that pic has no value because tomorrow ten thousand other children will draw a picture just like it”. How dumb am I?

Juaned74

The BTC Corp. board's boss.

satyamb22

BTC, ETH, SOL are the blue chip I’m betting on. In terms of more risk I’m betting on AZTEC Privacy chain since I know their developers and they are building the solution seriously for last few years. Also I feel as AI matures wore, people would be able to figure out your real name and address from wallet address so I’m betting on privacy thing. Just my thesis. Still very hard to predict which token will succeed, so my bet is purely from teams tech point of view

Nobodyspecial2222

I think you are missing the whole point of the cryptocurrency. It's supposed to replace paper money. In which i highly agree with. This way people wont have to worry about losing cash. Not to mention our entire system of currency will now have a way to accurately track it. Counterfeiting Crypto will not work with the blockchain and you damn well know the govt wants this to happen. ESPECIALLY the US....the petro dollar will be replaced at some point and China really wanted to be the worlds reserve currency. Becuase the US feels threatened by China and how they play ball, the only option for them is to accumulate as much crypto as possible before China does. And we know that the US is activily holding the most BTC (Thanks to robbing SILK ROAD) and Ethereum (Besides Vitali). I've heard and read Rumors where the US and it's divisions are holding a Majority of the worlds BTC and i've read as high as 28%. Theres not a shred of doubt that when it finally become LAW. That all those crypto's will be held indefinitely on the balance sheet to show the Govt has reduced it's debt....JUST BY HOLDING THE ASSET. IT's pure profit that will GREATLY increase the credit rating for the US. This alone would get a ton of Nations and Their companies to reinvest in the US by buying more debt and dumping money into infrastructure investments (real estate and high valued Municipal Bonds). After Guiliani took down the mob with his infamous R.I.C.O. lawsuit. You don't think the Govt stole the mobs playbook? Everything they do now, EXACTLY how the mob operated back in the day. Everything down to extortion and racketeering. MARK THIS POST AND WATCH DURING THE LAST 8 months of Trumps Presidency. He will use this tactic to forever leave his mark on the presidency. I'd bet this is why all his family is heavily invested in crypto currency along with all of the wealthiest people on the planet. Michael Saylor and Peter Theil are helping to make this happen. Just look at what Theil's Founders Fund invested in! AMP/ANVL. AMP is a collateral token and ANVL is a Governance token. Both go hand in hand to make the operation of that crypto ecosystem work by guaranteeing a sale at the price agreed upon. The main reason nobody wants to take crypto as a form of payment is because the price flucuates faster than fiat from any country. So to negate this, AMPERA and ANVIL Labs came up with a legitimate genius idea to make payment rails just like visa and mastercard....BUT only for crypto currency! This means, AMP is holding all the cards in the sense of "replacing Fiat". ANVL is more incredble as it's piggybacking off AMP to be able to Lend money and use the ANVL token as a Line of Credit (LOC) while also being able to use it to lend money.... This is going to change the landscape of Commerce and this will also help the combat fraud, scams, counterfeiting (which China, North Korea, Iran and a few other countries that hate the US) PURPOSELY Just to create inflation and put stress on the markets...If you don't believe this, open you eyes! CHINA was printing voting ballots, along with RUSSIA and UKRAINE. Each country benefits from an administrations policy. UKRAINE wanted democrats, to obviously fund their War, Russia wanted Trump to increase their oil exports and weapons trade, China wants trump out of office since he's cost them a few hundred billion dollars in trade. Long story short WHEN crypto is adopted into the worlds financial ecosystem, i can guarentee that this announcement will come in the last year of trumps presidency. In the time leading up to this, Some crypto currency will start taking off without a reason. Just know those will be the ones that are either being dumped OR being bought by people in the KNOW right before the big rollout happens. Again, Peter Theil and his Founders Fund, is investing in a unheard about crypto just to control the governance of a company that had created a way for crypto currency to be used to pay bills, borrow, and track. Id bet my ass they are slowly buying the underlying token as well. At these prices, at ANY time, they could drop a small 10mm investment into the collateral token and then they would control a entire payment system that were going to adopt in the US. Just look at what Founder Fund invested in and you use...Id bet your using or have used something the founders fund has invested in..BIG NAMES include: Facebook/Meta, Occulus, Polymarket, Spotify, etc. etc. etc. Just know that THEIL was a founder with MUSK at Paypal. Yeah....like they dont talk behind closed doors...and especially since they are both nerds...those dudes always stick together! When nerds of that caliber get together, they always create or do something that changes everybodys life. Just look at what happend in Hiroshima and Nagasaki after a bunch of Nazi Weapons nerds teamed up with US rocket nerds. We got 2 things....a rocket to the moon...and the most dangerous and leathel weapon is history....the Nuke. DONT YOU DARE TLDR this. People need to start thinking ahead again as opposed to in the moment. Planning will be for the wise....and the others who didn't, will meet their financial demise.

throwawayainteasy

A 5-year past timeframe is a pretty standard window to use in any investment returns analysis. It absolutely isn't arbitrary, meaningless, or cherry picked. 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years are all standard. BTC is doing pretty poorly in all of them except 10-year going by CAGR.

Saintgein

We're talking about BTC, with a cycle of about 4 years. Right now we're at the bottom of a bear market, and at the top of last cycles bull market. If you made the same calculation a bit more than a year ago, your numbers would've been totally different. https://preview.redd.it/9otiih5jam1i1.png?width=1367&format=png&auto=webp&s=878a6e71cd8367d19b202619a08ffb73963ec03f

Ruzhyo04

Do Kohls Cash and Starbucks rewards points devalue the USD? If I start an arcade and sell tokens worth $1 to use in my games does that devalue the USD? I’m trying to illustrate that just because someone makes a meme token, it doesn’t mean that it has any effect whatsoever on ETH or BTC. And you implying that it does is pretty dumb.

ptsi8

Grabbed 1BTC at 59k and grabbed 1 more at 69k. 4 years ago I grabbed .9BTC at 17k. Why would you assume everyone is a noob, insecure prick. I’ll sell extreme greed as usual 

CyanDew

in Paris' law, the driving force grows with the crack itself, because stress intensity rises with the square root of crack length. a bigger crack concentrates more stress, which makes it grow faster. it’s a feedback loop. the metal material is the U.S. dollar system, and the crack is Bitcoin. the power law interpretation of Bitcoin breaks to the upside at a certain point due to the compressing volatility and returns. this improves Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted profile, which allows for larger capital allocations. a bigger Bitcoin draws more capital, more attention, and more use as collateral, which pushes it bigger still. similar to how a crack in a metal material under repeated stress, reaccelerates cracking after its tipping point. the “break” is the dollar as Bitcoin’s measuring stick. past a certain point, pricing BTC in USD stops making sense. gradually, then suddenly.

Probstna

Buying UNI under 5, SOL and ETH soon, and more BTC

LemurLord

> Fuck quantum because if it breaks BTC it breaks every crypto and the whole world will basically be screwed... forever... but the sophistication of hacks will increase and it is simply a matter of time before it happens again, quantum is irrelevant in this context. Normal banks have 2FA and lockout protocols, quantum isn't the planet killer you think it is. Just for currencies relying solely on algorithmic depth for security (which is terrible security).

Pizzaboy0511

I promise you this liquidation lines are up exactly like spacex ipo. Remember not only do these institutions fund ipo they also have forced index inclusion such as Nasdaq-100 and msci 3 weeks following (just like spacex). What I’m saying is that BTC’s current decline will likely bottom out once index inclusion ends. This is our window to buy heavy then. Personally I’m looking to enter heavy 14-21 days post anthropic ipo. Trust me. RemindMe! 17 days

virt111

Funny this is, this was the exact date I set 6 months ago into my calendar to buy BTC. I did estimate it would be less than 50k but this is good still.

L4gsp1k3

Why do you buy BTC? Is it because you believe in BTC as a concept, then you just DCA from the height of 120k usd to the bottom of 0 usd. If you buy for lambo, I'm sorry for you.

Hippos4ever

Mods are prolly gunna remove this post for not being relevant to bitcoin, if they don’t I’m curious as to why the removed mine when I was simply questioning what happens to BTC’s price in the event of a 50 BILLION USD printer brrrrr caused by the department of transportation for the FAA fixin’

inadyttap

bought some more BTC. 

DC8008008

This is all my fault. I started investing into BTC October 2025

TjdGoEsQqbmQLoBj

These types of memes is why no takes BTC seriously

Lost_Ship_6428

Towards the end of this month, coinbase is going to launch the Deribit option platform in the U.S. Utilizing a BTC short box spread could potentially allow you to borrow against BTC at a rate of around .75% above the fed rate. So at a rate of 4.75% to 5% depending on length etc. Short box spreads are an advanced option trade so definitely do a lot of research before trying to do one. I haven't completed my due diligence on this and you should do a lot. I probably won't borrow this way since I have a decent amount of stocks so I just use SPX short box spreads to borrow money. I can't stress enough that are a bunch of minor ways to screw up executing a short box spread that you need to understand them thoroughly before trying them yourself. One big gotcha is trying to write them without using European-style options(it's my understanding that Deribit is European-style). Using American-style is very risky and shouldn't be used for them.

AlphaRanger88

Calling Bitcoin dead based on one cherry-picked 5-year window is the same mistake as calling it the greatest investment ever based on another. Stocks generate cash flow, absolutely. But Bitcoin was never designed to be a company producing earnings. You can prefer stocks without pretending that five years of price action proves Bitcoin has no value. And if your BTC allocation was only 0.2% of your portfolio, why the dramatic farewell speech? 😂

SDUKD

In October 2025, BTC was at 120k. How did that cross 70k again. Surely you would measure from the previous ath in 2021 to 2024 where it overtook it, this makes sense. However in 2024 it was 70k (new ath), briefly came down to 59ish then back up past 70 until 100k+ that happened in just a couple months. It went back above 70k. The reason I’m saying the 2024-25 date doesn’t make sense is because you are comparing the same cycle against itself. Whereas your previous example 2021-2024 is measuring different cycles.

asswizzard69

That one guy said he always buys the tops so I doubt he cares because he thinks BTC will be in the millions

forsen_capybara

Everyone knows "printing" devalues currency. The dollar isn't supposed to be an investment, it fulfills its purpose to allow the exchange of value excellently. If you're trying to say that BTC should replace it by allowing fragmentation to where things are bought with individual SATs, then you've effectively created a system where current nerds will perpetually decimate future generations as the value of their BTC rises against how many SATS people can generate by working. BTC cannot replace cash and loses value as an investment just because of that. So if it isnt used as much for transactions, cannot be used as a cash replacement, doesn't produce anything (beyond its value as a globalized decentralized ledger), then what's left? How much more "mainstream" do you need BTC to be when a 13 year old can buy, sell or send on Robinhood at any moment? You can't keep using Gold as a comparison when gold and ANY precious metal has REAL WORLD TANGIBLE use.

blucheese_coldbru

Interesting, I'll look into this. Thank you for sharing. I was going to actually go NVIDIA and I was I was moving money after the announcement the CEO had to resign, I had to send BTC to Kraken and it did not get the six confirmations it needed for me to sell so I was literally 9 minutes late from buying premarket I'm getting an immediate 15% jump by 9:15 a.m. Should have transferred it over the night before. That had been an awesome hit. The company's financial fundamentals are flawless and they have a competitive advantage that impacts the entire world and AI industry. I believe they would do just fine. If it even became to the point where there was a M&A acquisition - you'd still get paid out big.

88mph121gigawatts

What you are saying now was said in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013…. And so on and so forth and yet BTC has always bounced back

blucheese_coldbru

Yeah, created this thread as I haven't been in since 2021 after a story I shared above a best friend stealing my keys / phrase and wiping me after I spent nearly 100K helping him not get his legs broken, kicked out, and gave him a job that was bringing in so much money as I knew there was a short window to sell peer-to-peer without the required certifications. But right now after selling all my gold such silver I just moved it into BTC thinking it would be the safe bet and obviously regret not just moving it to usdc when it hit 70k and take the 5% loss since we're at 66k now. I'm afraid of it going to 50K myself but only time will tell. Hope I can get some good recommendations from you guys on some other coins to diversify as I believe in the market as a whole no doubt. People that say crypto is dead are fools. We live in a digital world, there will be a digital currency. Especially one not controlled by the governments and banks that can just keep printing the dollars over and over and over where your money you work hard for goes down in value just because they turn that printer on.

AlphaRanger88

The biggest mistake in this market is trying to recover losses by jumping into whatever coin looks the most oversold. LTC going from $45 back to $70 sounds amazing, but there's a reason it's down there. Cheap doesn't automatically mean undervalued. Personally, I'd rather scale into BTC and ETH gradually than move 50% of my BTC into LTC hoping for a bounce. If BTC loses another 10%, there's a good chance alts get hit even harder. And honestly, the fact that every small rally gets sold immediately tells me buyers still aren't fully in control. I'm not convinced the bottom is in, but I'm also not trying to catch the exact bottom. Keeping some dry powder seems smarter than going all-in either direction. One question though: if you weren't already holding LTC, would you genuinely buy it today over BTC, or are you just remembering when it was $70?

PrestondeTipp

Information arrives randomly. There is no guarantee BTC ever goes back up to previous all time highs, and no amount of chart gazing can determine if or when. If it does go back up at a rate equal to inflation, your real return is 0%. This is the danger of investing in currencies.

Punchmeinmyface25

I’m buying BTC at $50k

__redruM

Support and resistance are the most basic concepts of technical analysis and where my 62k comes from. If you’re going to actively trade they’re more important to understand. I turned my last full BTC into SGOV around 82k and will likely buy a stock market dip with it before the year is over.

blucheese_coldbru

Interesting, I'll check it out. I'm back in the markets since around 2021 when a best friend I would have taken a bullet for stole my keys and wiped me clean. This is also after I paid off two bookies he owed where they were at the point of about to break his legs (he's in NY/NJ area and owed over $50k, they still do it the old school way too up there). Paid that that off, he was about to be evicted so paid 6 months to his landlord so he had 4 months of rent free, gave him a job as I was doing peer-to-peer selling in 2020 / 2021 making a killing as I knew eventually that opportunity would pass when licenses would be required from the state and such. Spoke to the appropriate departments and I was perfectly fine. Was making a killing - gave my number to the Crypto ATM store owner locations and said any referrals I'll give them $500 if it's someone who comes in frequently and is buying $1000s worth. They were happy to do so because they would only get $500 a month for the ATM to be in the store. Was mutually beneficial for all three parties - depending on how much they wanted, I'd charge anywhere from 5% - 10% and they didn't even have to leave their couch. Paying not even 1% on Kraken and making that spread was insane. And still saved them 5-10% depending which brand ATM they'd use. Anyways, I had not been remotely interested in going back in until I processed all that, moved on, and when liquidating the gold/silver I wanted to re-enter. For a while it was great as I avoided the precious metals crashing, all the while just safely put it into BTC and made a good amount there too. It's this recent month where I liquidated a very large amount and entered around that 78-80k mark and now crashed to 66k. So I'm ready to diversify, would love to know as well if you think it's a buy for someone in a situation like myself. Will do the research as I know so many new coins have come out that have tremendous value that I am not remotely aware of. Kicking myself last year for not jumping into Zcash at $20 as my friend told me just to put at least 5K into it. If I did, would have 250k from that or nearly 500k from its 1600 high. But that's also in hindsight on if we would have held on to it long enough to see those respective amounts because if I invested 5K and it got to 100K or even 50K I would have exited. I'm done trying to fool myself thinking I would have made it all the way up to those haha

EODzealot

BTC go brrrrt and the fiat keeps going down.

Always_working_hardd

Yep and they can fuck with your BTC, as in tax you on gains.

Pizzaboy0511

If you know you know. I’m waiting just a little bit longer before I load up on BTC (maybe +1 week after Anthropic ipo)

Shoddy_Trifle_9251

Bitcoin is a dead man walking. It's an old slow dinosaur chain that is quantum vulnerable with a flawed security model. 7.12 million BTC is have exposed public keys, 1.7 million of that 7.12 Million is impossible to migrate no matter what they try to do.

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Abject-Stretch-1187

What’s funny is that in 2018, I would’ve never thought people will be crying that BTC fell from 80k to 60k in 2026 lol 

donjoe0

He wasn't tho, all his bleating about BTC dominance this, BTC dominance that, has amounted to nothing. Dominance predicts f. all, it's worse than just looking at the price and trying to guesstimate patterns like flags, shoulders, cups etc.

DMVSPIRITS

Actually yes cuz it isn’t quantum resistant BTC cooked

Advanced-Ice2095

Mass liquidations of long positions past $57 lol, too many people believe (believed) BTC would never go below that number.

lucubanget

Latest update, Bitcoin Internal Affairs department have started their investigation of the CEO. Fingers crossed. If confirmed we can see BTC back to mid or low 50k.

iiGoodVibesii

All I see is a higher low. Regardless, I understand what BTC is and that's why I'll continue to DCA into it.

Shoddy_Trifle_9251

Bitcoins is quantum vulnerable garbage. 7.12 million BTC is have exposed public keys. 1.7 million of that 7.12 Million is impossible to migrate no matter what they try to do. Anyone who thinks Bitcoin is a good investment needs their head examined.

---Truthseeker---

By 2030 ETH should be quantum proof, Lean Roadmap done or close for it, built in privacy, faster and cheaper with significantly more adoption through stablecoins, agents, tokenization. Have no clue about BTC but ETH has a bright future!!

SpontaneousDream

Except that's the only ratio that actually matters lol. Any altcoin can perform well against infinite fiat. Very, very few altcoins can grow against BTC.

FantasticFungiiii

What’s the currency you’re talking about? I looked up and it looks like Indian rupees? This is what I see: ₹**1,00,000 (1 Lakh INR)** converts to **$1,060.92 USD** or **0.01619 BTC**

anon1999666

Was downvoted when I pointed out that if tech goes through a bear market then BTC will trade sub 40k. If another 2022 type crash happens to tech stocks soon everything is going to get smashed to hell.

SpontaneousDream

As they should? They're literally worth nothing. That's been proven for years on end. Look at literally any alt priced measured against BTC...

SpontaneousDream

Shorting ETH against BTC and HYPE has been stupid profitable, it's actually scaring me a bit that this trade isn't more crowded.

El_Peregrine

|**Holding Period**|**Start Date**|**Bitcoin (BTC)**|**Gold (per oz)**|**Outperformer**| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**1 Year**|Nov 2025|**-31.68%** ($96,129.48)|**-9.01%** ($4,272.50)|Gold (+22.67%)| |**2 Years**|Nov 2024|**-28.04%** ($91,278.47)|**+38.57%** ($2,805.50)|Gold (+66.61%)| |**3 Years**|Nov 2023|**+79.51%** ($36,587.70)|**+96.88%** ($1,974.62)|Gold (+17.37%)| |**4 Years**|Nov 2022|**+293.47%** ($16,692.46)|**+122.18%** ($1,749.74)|Bitcoin (+171.29%)| |**5 Years**|Nov 2021|**+9.93%** ($59,747.74)|**+110.76%** ($1,844.60)|Gold (+100.83%)| Bitcoin is getting smoked by gold with much less volatility in 4 of the 5 past holding periods of 1-5 years.

smotpoker1201

North Korea is dumping all that stolen BTC

El_Peregrine

I've survived a few BTC bears. The shitty part about this "cycle" (if those exist) is that the bull market was particularly fruitful. So it doubled from the high 5 years ago, then tanked again. We're exactly where we were 5.5 years ago. A lost half decade in which we could have invested in any other asset, or made more just collecting interest on treasuries, without the volatility. Very, very disappointing, and with cold wallet hacks, binance hacks, I see very little promise for new investors. Wouldn't be surprised if we're still lurching back and forth and under $100k in another 5 years. Waste of a decade.

Sea-Push5285

Bro, waiting for something called max pain is such a waste of time. I could have bought TQQQ during that same period and made just as much money, if not more. Time is the most important factor in investing, not trying to perfectly time the tops and bottoms. Nobody wants to spend over a year waiting for BTC to hit its bottom, watch it consolidate for two months just to pump 40%, and then end up right back near its previous lows. WTF.

El_Peregrine

Just compare it to other assets and you'll see what a disappointing few years its been for BTC. Out of the past 5 years, you would have been better off holding SPY or QQQ than bitcoin for 3 of them. The only 2 years from which BTC outperformed was bottoming after a crash, which is not exactly a great thing, unless that happens to be exactly when you accumulated the most (not an easy task). |**Holding Period**|**Bitcoin CAGR**|**SPY CAGR**|**QQQ CAGR**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**1 Year**|\-31.68%|\+12.27%|\+11.67%| |**2 Years**|\-15.17%|\+13.48%|\+17.01%| |**3 Years**|\+21.53%|\+18.72%|\+20.76%| |**4 Years**|\+40.84%|\+17.49%|\+24.30%| |**5 Years**|\+1.91%|\+9.98%|\+10.97%| So at best, comparable returns, with much more volatility. Clearly some people are getting fed up with the asymmetry here (limited upside, tremendous downside, and awful volatility), and I struggle to see the case for new investors. BTC has stalled out, and it's doubtful we'll ever see the promise it once offered.

lenissius14

Following that logic, not only BTC, but every other financial asset would be worthless to invest because "being right once doesn't mean you can predict the future" it doesn't make sense, even gambling, which takes a big amount of luck into consideration when playing, requires a certain degree of analysis, even forecasting based on previous plays.

CaltonSmith

The funniest part is the Self-fullfilling Prophecy within the 4 year cycle. BTC is expected to dump soon. So people sell. It dumps. See??? After the Bear Market BTC is expected to Rise. So people buy. And it rises. See???

CaltonSmith

BTC is a self-fullfilling prophecy on steroids. Nothing more. The biggest greater fool market there always has been. I hold btw. Wont Sell at a loss.

Sea-Push5285

Exactly. I feel like everything changed after the midterm elections. There's been relentless selling pressure on BTC, almost as if there's no tomorrow. We no longer see those sharp relief rallies after major drops. It feels like the goal is to completely wipe out leveraged longs. Traders are still hoping BTC will repeat its 2023 price action, so they're piling into highly leveraged longs, trying to catch the entire upside move. And, of course, they keep getting liquidated over and over again. We're seeing nearly $1 billion in liquidations almost every day, with around 90% coming from longs. The price action has become so bearish that we're approaching the liquidation zones of larger players using relatively low leverage (5x or less), around $60K–$62K. These are the people who bought after BTC broke out of the $60K range. They entered believing that $57K was the bottom and that their positions would never get liquidated. I think even they're about to get wiped out. If BTC keeps moving in a rainbow pattern like this ($57K → $87K → $57K), I don't think it's an attractive investment anymore. The risk/reward is simply too poor, and it takes too much time to get anywhere. BTC hasn't even shown any signs of stopping its decline on the weekly chart. I don't expect a V-shaped recovery. I think we'll spend several more weeks moving sideways, assuming we've actually found a bottom. As for when the selling will finally stop, that's anyone's guess.

WarmMycologist9549

If you already have crypto and just want to swap it for BTC, you could check out AceChange. It supports crypto-to-crypto swaps without standard KYC for ordinary transactions. Might be worth comparing with other options.

GoElastic

The only "value" BTC has left is that we can short it. But hurry up, approaching 0 very fast. You may become a millionaire over night at this pace.

___Kz

I don’t think you understand how BTC works dude. It’s a volatile investment, that’s why we stack and HODL. And I don’t see how you figure that I was ‘right once’ when I continue to get more BTC every day and have for years?

micaescude

Gracias tengo que aprender.. se puso solo no quería que se ponga en BTC pero si lo saco ahora pierdo.. ya fue quedará así esperemos q suba

crispykfc

BTC finding its Q4 bottom in the midterm year, just like it always does

Pristine-Frosting-73

Any itch to accumulate 2.1 BTC, rather than 2? Peeps used to strive for 21 BTC a while back

___Kz

My multiple BTC send you their regards 👋🏻

Forded_Fiction24

I ironically own much more BTC than I ever would have by not exclusively investing in BTC. Different investments have different time horizons. Use that to your advantage and rotate profits. If your goal is to stack as much as Bitcoin as possible, then you need to buy other assets besides just Bitcoin to achieve that more efficiently

Several_Razzmatazz71

I'm not sure what you mean by the main point. One question: Can exchanges and BTC miners coordinate to renege on BTC transactions? Historical data or results [https://mitsloan.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2022-06/May%2028%20-%20Marriott%20Salons%201-3%20Antoinette%20Schoar%20Slides%20%282%29\_0.pdf](https://mitsloan.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2022-06/May%2028%20-%20Marriott%20Salons%201-3%20Antoinette%20Schoar%20Slides%20%282%29_0.pdf) [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2026.101569](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2026.101569) Pretty much, the trend of rising BTC ownership being held by intermediaries is rising while there is increasing concentration of BTC miners. At least in terms of miners, it's not surprising that the vast majority of fulfilled transactions are going to be done by very large outlets, it's costly to set up a data center and there are increasing scale.

___Kz

I bought 1 BTC when it was low 15K and sold it when it was well over 100K then used the cash as a deposit for an apartment which I know own outright. BTC is a tool not a magic wand. Use it wisely and you won’t regret it

-GolfIsEasy-

Anyone notice that you never hear Donald Trump complain about the price? He’s got a lot more BTC than you do.

No-Banana7023

Funny thing, someone actually wrote “In money we trust!” into a Bitcoin transaction in July 2015, when BTC was about $278. Not sure which money they meant, but only one of them is up \~240x since then.

Satosea

I think the BTC bear cycle is not over yet, the recent pump was just a bull trap. i'm actually waiting for the $50k zone. If anyone here survived 2022 bear market, we well know what actual bear cycle looks like.

Gingerjake1993

lol - we must have some moon shots incoming! Or OP is just very stupid. I love it when people say BTC is dead 😎 I’ll also see you again when btc is back at 100k and your asking for dca advise

No_South_9912

Every time BTC has dumped like this, it stayed basically flat for at least a week before making a recovery. Never have seen a V shaped recovery with BTC

SoloApee

Just relax..it's going to go up again .. BTC dropping because of nvidia ceo scandal

Forded_Fiction24

I mean maybe but there's no point in erasing what actually happened and that inflation does exist after all. No sense and calculating based on a hypothetical world without the covid crash and subsequent inflation because that's indeed what happened  There's just no reason to embellish the argument for BTC. 32% eroded purchasing power since 2013 should be enough of a reason. Making false claims of 50% just subtracts from a sound argument otherwise and is a obvious weak point in the argument that could be attacked which would subtract from the argument as a whole. So I don't see the point in invalidating the whole argument with hyperbole and misinformation

VictoryAlive2971

Then 3.33 BTC

Stunning_Position345

You can't afford to be in BTC.

No_South_9912

When has BTC been down over 10% on the 7 day, and been up significantly in the following week? I'm unable to find it on the charts.

juice06870

How much BTC did your grandmother buy once she heard about it? I’ll hang up and listen.

typeshut

LMAO. its literally the same thing every cycle with you people. its like ur collectively trolling. if you held btc long term youd be in the green. like u said we are probably nearing the bottom. most likely btc hits 50's before eoy and then probably rebound slowly next year. I could see BTC hitting 40s or 30s under unfortunate circumstances but that would indicate a much stronger rebound as well. crypto is by nature, volatile. seeing crypto go down so much the past few days to me is a good sign

MagicMaker32

It just depends. Ethereum could become the rails for machine commerce. BTC could become a global reserve if the world ditches the US dollar (already is a de facto reserve for sanctioned nations). But AI could mess up cryptography very soon, or quantum computers a little down the road. The Internet could get destroyed or partitioned making it less viable. Or it might just be the chrysalis stage for future monetary systems. Dyor.

Bogdan-Behemot

Well thx for not being and a hole and asking, in my opinion the one that is certain in the near future is the halving, but even if it's already "priced in", I believe that these cheap regions help the real bitcoiners accumulate it, slowly rising "the bottom". Also with AI getting bigger and bigger and BTC being THE digital currency that an AI can fully comprehend (unlike fiat) there has to be something with that .. obviously I'm not a fortune teller so I don't know for certain what will happen, but I believe in the history of this asset and a range of positive catalysts will come sooner or later. Another one is BTC becoming more and more popular with each cycle, maybe the people that heard about it at 120k are buying now, as time goes on more young people are able to afford to hold an asset like this, which that are very familiar with by now. Also I will state, I'm not an expert, truly I dont know what will happen, but these are my predictions.

OliveLegitimate3236

Sure there are more efficient way to obtain heat but here where I live the standard way to heat is using baseboard heaters, so a miner does the very same job. I dont use it to make money but to offset the cost of electricity bill, its not big money but it does help. I started 2 years ago, by mere curiosity, and I have accumulate around 1 million sats by simply mining. I take it as my side hobby. I read more and more about BTC and monetary systems and I got hooked. I DCA, part of my saving pay me interests in BTC, I even have a Visa card that pay me back in sats. Man I even put cans and bottles on the side and cash the recycling to get me more mining power or biy me more sats. I'm a little shrimp btw, normal 9 to 5 job, not big money here but I'm close to 0.1 BTC now. Again, I see this as my little game, I have other "classic" monetary assets, I am not a maximalist but I wish I knew about BTC earlier actually Dollars have lost big on their purchasing value, but again I am here for the fun and the long term, not to make money. I work for that, BTC act, partly, as a store of my time.

No_South_9912

Show me where there was ever a point where BTC was sitting at a 10%+ 7 day loss and gained at least 5% over the next 7 days.

IAmSomewhatDamaged

You sure about that?? We just had an election and Nvidia is in SHAMBLES right now. You don’t think these things affect the overall market (especially since BTC gets more and more congruent with the Stock Market as time goes on…).

Reason_Boner

Isn’t BTC down 50% as well this morning?? So painful.

Alexander-305

One way to separate deleveraging from a real demand shift is to watch perp positioning next to price. As of about 8:30 AM ET this morning, from BloFin's and Bitunix's public market data (we partner with both): BTC perp funding is roughly flat, about +0.0045% per 8h on BloFin and +0.0033% on Bitunix, and BloFin's BTC open interest is about 4,640 BTC, basically unchanged from last night even though price slid from roughly 69.2k to 66.6k over the last 24 hours. If this were still mostly forced long liquidation, you'd usually expect open interest to keep dropping and funding to go clearly negative as shorts pile in. Flat open interest with near-zero funding while price keeps falling looks more like spot selling and missing buyers than a leverage flush, which fits your macro read and the ETF outflows. The point where ETF outflows slow and funding turns negative with open interest falling has historically been closer to where the leverage side is cleared. Just one data lens, not a call.