BTC

hodler1992

It is. I get to talk about BTC quite often with friends or colleagues and 9 out of 10 are still laughing at me thinking this is a low IQ gamble. I wish they could see things happen but no

New_Manner_1826

It is about getting assets with rising value and instead rent until you can buy a house in a place right for you for cash. Anton Kriel talks about REIT, thinking outside of the sheep mentality. Look at the trends, 200 day moving averages. If you bought BTC 10 years ago you would be up 10 000 %, SPY 10 years ago you would be up 260 %, AAPL 1000 %, XBI 150 %, HG1! 180 %..

KongenAfKobenhavn

Why invest in a product you don’t understand? BTC can NEVER be used to buy and sell groceries or anything like that. The technology simply doesn’t allow that amount of transactions and speed that would require. Other crypto can do that.

oxxoMind

Proves that BTC is still very very early

warrenboofit42069

But will you use that value in a way that physically benefits your life between now and death (I.e convert to fiat if buying/selling in BTC isn’t mainstream yet), transfer it to your next of kin, or just keep staring at a chart and number on a screen and call that your “value” til you die?

JayGatsby1881

1 BTC is about to be able to buy a house in the next bull run, probably.

CompetitiveAppeal663

I have an exit strategy…..I’m 50M and in great health, but want to actually use my BTC in my lifetime. I have kids and pay for (most of) their college, and will help them with weddings and first home purchases, but I am not concerned with “generational wealth” or even leaving them a big chunk of money when I am dead and they are old. My strategy is a “skim waterfall” triggered by price. BTC hits $250k, I sell 15% of my stack and spend that money on whatever “extras” I want above and beyond my normal retirement savings. When it hits $400k, sell another 25% of what is left after the first sale. At $700k, sell another 35% of what is left. At $1M sell another 45%. I will end up dying with some BTC since I will never sell 100%, but I will also feel like I have used it to change my life. I also have a backup rule that says if these upper targets don’t hit by the time I am 65 (in 15 years) I reevaluate numbers and see if I sell sooner or not at all. This entire plan is to try to set hard rules to take the emotion out of it while actually using the BTC to change my life in meaningful ways.

Brave_Ad9059

Nie mam go na sprzedaż. Nie trzymam go z myślą o szybkim zarobku, lecz jako plan B na wypadek załamania systemu finansowego – choć mam świadomość, że za mojego życia wcale nie musi do tego dojść. ​To moja ochrona na scenariusz, w którym waluty FIAT zaczną tracić siłę nabywczą w takim tempie, że rynek zacznie od nich uciekać. ​Jeśli odejdę, nie wykorzystawszy tych środków, moje BTC przepadną razem ze mną. Będzie to mój mały wkład w całą społeczność – w końcu utracone monety tylko zwiększają wartość reszty.

richardto4321

If BTC were to hit $10M in our lifetime, that means it has become a huge mainstream success and it would be better to use it as collateral to buy things rather than sell it and pay a big tax bill.

xuncx

I’m not a billionaire but thanks for the compliment. I just don’t understand the upside of investing so little. Even if btc breaks $150k OP will still have less than $500 and then you have to consider fees. There is a thing called. If it was my last $200 and change I’d use that money to invest in myself to make me more money. BTC is great don’t get me wrong but it’s not gonna all of a sudden go parabolic to $1M. Even if it did OP would would still only have $3k which isn’t life changing. They could make $3k much easier.

nassauboy9

I have some on an exchange and the reason is if wanted to convert to some cash for a toy or bill or another investment which I did a little last week With the 40 trillion debt and governments going to be wanting money I'm feeling less easy. I have always been a not your keys but now I'm thinking about how relatively easy it is to send BTC to an exchange and is it worth keep there. I mean RULES CHANGE. I think I just convinced myself.

Relentlessbetz

Should have spent more buying BTC in 2016 then going out and partying with women. Could have stacked hard and then party hard with women lol.

NoBrosCrypto

I want to hold until BTC gets to a price where I can sell half to retire all debt and keep the other half for generational wealth.

Dismal-Loan-4215

I think it depends on how much BTC you have. If you have a large amount, suddenly selling it off isn't a good thing.

Dismal-Loan-4215

In reality, BTC is currently only fluctuating between 77-81k.

alrightyfine

Woman don’t hold BTC. I guarantee with my life

No_Champion2428

BTC will remain forever

circumcisingaban

the mods literally delete any post that isnt "HURR DURR BTC TO MOON"

Lefties_TheWorst7331

It's necessary for them to dilute.. the share price will stagnate alongside BTC price whether they do or not. So.. dilute and put more cash on the balance sheet.

SeaworthinessSad7300

He is the worst thing for BTC for many reasons

rachelgreen10

LMFAO, I have 3 BTC at this point and my bf has none.

udontnoumi

I put my bet here, next month BTC will going down under 60k again. Prob 58K

NMoney007

They have been supporting STRC their dividend coins for the last month or so. They need STRC to be trading close to $100 so they can sell more to then start buying more BTC. Lets see what gets announced tomorrow.

kakumero

If you restored the same electrum seed in electrum, it should recreate the same wallet and the BTC should still arrive. Just dont restore an electrum native seed as BIP39. They can use the same word list, but the seed format and derivation rules are different and can produce completely distinct addresses

LowerStranger9021

Isn’t that the same as sell what is already owned by that company? Honestly the number of people in this community that don’t understand basic concepts is shocking. If you are long 840,000+ BTC you can’t be short BTC until you sell one more BTC then you already own.

Pretend-Olive-5497

BTC crash to 48-52k or lower by Oct/nov Blood in the streets, max pain !!! Same every cycle

ivanx90

Really appreciate you actually reading through the code, this is exactly the kind of feedback I was hoping for. The gradient booster idea makes sense in theory but yeah, like you said, not enough data at 2h resolution to train anything reliable right now. Filed away for later if we ever get more history. The per-asset thing hit hardest though, went and checked it right after reading your comment. Same exact strategy across 10 coins on the 2H bot, 3 months of data: LINK 71% winrate, +0.71 ADA 70% winrate, +0.59 SOL 50% winrate, +0.07 BNB 50% winrate, -0.64 DOGE 42% winrate, -0.76 NEAR 43% winrate, -1.86 XRP 29% winrate, -1.07 AVAX 27% winrate, -1.52 BTC 20% winrate, -0.94 ETH 30% winrate, -2.19 Basically confirms exactly what you guessed without even seeing the numbers. One model, wildly different results per coin. Feels like the next real thing to dig into rather than more exit tuning. Volatility-adaptive stops instead of fixed thresholds lines up with something we found digging into MFE/MAE research before posting here (Chandelier exit type stuff), so good to hear it independently from someone who actually trades this way. You're right on the order book too, we're doing a REST snapshot via fetch_order_book, not a real delta stream, and yeah the main loop is just sleeping 60s between polls. Both accurate, both would be a real infra upgrade, just not sure yet if that's the bottleneck or if it's the per-asset thing above. Probably worth doing eventually either way. Maker vs taker on exit is a good point for whenever this goes live, but it's all paper trading right now so no real fills happening yet, nothing to optimize there for the moment. Thanks again, this was way more useful than I expected when I posted.

b1mm3rl1f3

CZ recently said that millionaires won't be able to afford 1 full BTC due to extreme supply limits. 95.6% of the total BTC supply is already mined and available. Yet the final 4.4% is not expected until 2140. That last 4.4% will take more than a century, all while governments keep printing money. Raging multi year bull market incoming

olive_oil_lover_

While studying computer engineering, I thought a lot about what could be done with blockchain technology. However, in a world where centralized systems are so widely accepted, I realized that blockchain technology is almost never the easiest or most functional solution to any problem. But BTC diverged from this and turned into an investment diversification tool. Most likely, this wasn't Satoshi's original goal, but if this hadn't happened, we would never have seen these valuations. What I mean is, just as we haven't found one in the last 10 years, we most likely won't find a new use case that will take BTC's value to a whole new level from now on, either. However, we don't actually need to find new use cases. After all, what has multiplied BTC's value up to this point hasn't been the discovery of new applications. It was people gradually realizing its potential as an investment over time. Going forward, the exact same thing is what will continue to multiply BTC's value.

Ok-Bread-7503

Hey, Here are a few of my thoughts reading the python code for the 2h model and strategia. Obviously take them with a grain of salt, as my suggestions are more likely to reflect not understanding the model than anything else. But maybe there's a nugget worth considering: \*Looks like you use a clustering score to decide whether to move on a trade. A naive cluster ignores interactions. Consider a gradient-booster (something like LightGBM), which would implement a treed approach to improve the understanding. ML like this, though, works best on a shitload of data, which you might not have at 2hr increments. \*You're also using the same model for the different assets. See if you have cross sectional success with some but not others. The models I use with the different assets are very different and kind of evolve weekly. \*Look up volatility adaptive multipliers and consider implementing that approach instead of the thresholds you're currently using. \*Are you using a snapshot L2 book? If so, use a websocket to get real-time flow of the deltas. Get their sequence numbers so you know if you missed any messages. And check out various order imbalance measures, as you definitely won't want to use the same OI measures for BTC as you would for some of the others. \*Do I understand you're having your poller sleep 60 seconds? Use websockets and asynchronous execution if you can. \*I'm not familiar with this exchange, but do you have to file taker/market orders? Perhaps use some maker orders as you exit your position.

JimmySki6166

The greatest asset one can purchase right now! I first purchased BTC at 12k, and it’s at 78k right now. It has never gone below the original price I paid. Generational wealth! Do your research on it!

Successful_Pin_2641

Sell now take profits and put in BTC

LowerStranger9021

I agree with you on this. But I understand the recent selling of BTC this summer to manage various obligations. The community didn’t like this fact being pointed out.

themindspeaks

I rarely do. And when I do, I withdraw through lighting channels, which provides a bit of anonymity about what my total wallet balance is and where my BTC ends up. So an exchange will only know how much I have approximately purchased at the exchange. Not my consolidated address or UTXO. The majority I purchase through Robosat. Which is all non KYC.

UnclePsilocybe

BTC was down in 1984. Like at 0

Lost_Anywhere_69

BTC $1,000,000 is no longer a pipe dream. It’s a reality. The real question now is what is the ceiling? Def not mil. Prolly not even basement in fiat. Something else entirely. The whole reason I got i to btc in the first place 1BTC=1BTC

hoopstar80

In 40 years BTC will still be mined. The question is cash or BTC/other assets.

BigDik6355

In my country a lot of people are "work optional" already by claiming benefits. No BTC needed.

No_Application_1579

To me it feels that BTC becomes a similar market to gold. It has more "religious" value than actual value.

LionRivr

BTC is increasingly becoming a global threat to central banking systems and private banking systems. First they ignored BTC. Then they laughed at BTC. Now they’re fighting BTC. Then BTC wins.

Known-Relief5228

Jim Cramer sold his BTC; that’s all you need to know.

Unlucky-Chicken2515

Definitely not against BTC or any crypto. But using BTC for everyday transactions is not the most effective way.

Interesting_Alps618

I would go Solana. It’s the third best coin. When BTC and ETH go up, Solana generally follows with some huge gains.

Forded_Fiction24

I have over $1M in assets( not just BTC) and I'm still working. You'd be a fool to quit working with just $1M

Significant-Fan-8938

Save in BTC is the right answer. Stack sats and don’t gamble with the shitcoins

DimensionPrize8168

My wife has a BTC but I invested her money for her. Hopefully I made the right choice.

FunWithSkooma

>If your BTC is held at an exchange, authorities can serve legal process on the exchange. The exchange controls the keys and can freeze or transfer the assets. just dont use cex. > If authorities seize a computer, phone, hardware wallet, seed phrase, or other material that gives them access to the private key, they can transfer the BTC to a government-controlled wallet. for that, they have to know where it is. >Bitcoin's public blockchain makes transactions unusually traceable. Authorities can follow coins till they get converted to cash then seize that. only if they can attribute the transaction to you, which is pretty simple to avoid.

Bilatsibagya

Stacking BTC short position 💪

devCheckingIn

Looks like Saylor is back to buying BTC.

Efficient-Concept713

Not all coins are created equal. Do your research. I recommend only BTC until you really understand the market and the general consensus on where blockchain is headed.

LowerStranger9021

The news I’m reading has this company selling a lot of Bitcoin this year under its BTC Monetization program.

Bahog_veesong

Yeah, the volatility is brutal, makes putting BTC to work while holding it even more appealing... Wdyt?

Bahog_veesong

Trading is one side of it, but BTC has way more potential beyond just scalping. native staking is one example..

Bahog_veesong

yeah, buy the lows and chill on the highs. meanwhile, you can still put your BTC to work through native staking while you wait.

Bahog_veesong

a thousand years is a stretch 😂 but BTC is already gaining more utility. TBVs could help unlock more use cases beyond just holding...

mickeyDisneyMouse

I’m all in on BTC but it does not have the transaction speed or ease of use to replace fiat currency or even Mastercard and Visa .

fittes7

Dude has 6,934$ in BTC, I doubt they put you in prison for not paying tax on that

TenTrillionBees

Because it is the cyclical behavioral economic process by which more effective money absorbs and overtakes failing monetary tools during periods of economic strain. People bot only get excited because they xan exchange their BTC for more Fiat and then into more stuff, but that it can by proxy buy more stuff over time as Fiat fails and BTC grows. The ultimate goal of money is to trade it for stuff, and as this process creeps forward year after year it is worth celebrating.

LiquiditySlushy

Now is when I feel bullish. The 4 hour MACD just crossed, my own indicators are why I feel bullish. If BTC goes down by more than 2% in the next 3 days I will feel silly and get down votes.

Bongressman

Scam bulshit coin? Naw. Cycled shitty alts out of the portfolio in 2022. If it isn't BTC, it gets an eyeroll.

sebbwebbo

Better idea: \*selling Vespa for 5.5k \*buying a similar japanese scooter for 2k \*buying BTC for 3.5k spot You would have a more reliable scooter, more BTC, less risk in every way.

BallsofSt33I

ngl... i'm loving him & the BTC action....

LowerStranger9021

I believe your data is incorrect. In their July 30, 2026 report they confirmed the sale of 32 BTC at a loss. This continued a trend that started in May. Maybe I’m reading news on a different Strategy Inc.

entropydust

BTC bears are different.

Friendly-Attempt-279

Honestly I think depending on other investment or retirement savings you have 4 BTC will have you set in about 20 years time. Imo it’s plausible to be at least a couple million per BTC by then

Grunblau

If you bought the COVID dip and snagged a BTC for around $4K for your $100K portfolio, you might feel like there isn’t really a reason to sell as you watch the USD be purposely diminished. Even though it is technically more than 50% of your holdings, it is only $4K of cost basis.

ThinScientist3460

Manchild. He was not so vocal when BTC was tanking.

btc_set_me_free

means you should have bought some yesterday; and that the fiat price doesn't matter. The amount of BTC is what matters; 1 BTC always = 1 BTC.

AutoModerator

Post is by: QuirkySet7809 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1w2lkcq/i_built_a_fairly_large_crypto_trading_system/ I'm building a crypto trading system, and I'm at the point where I need some outside opinions. The system has grown into a fairly large architecture covering: * Multi-timeframe market structure * Market structure breaks and swing failure patterns * BTC as a reference/bias filter * Scanner loops, hard gates and scoring * Multiple strategy rules * Signal and microstructure operators * Position sizing and risk geometry * Trade protection and trailing logic * Portfolio and rate limits * Post-trade learning and evaluation The main question I'm trying to solve is: **How do you use a large amount of trading data intelligently without simply stacking more indicators and creating a complicated machine that doesn't actually have more edge?** Right now, the system processes data through multiple filters and decision layers. The general idea is to separate market structure, timeframe context, BTC conditions, signals, risk constraints and execution rather than letting one metric decide everything. But this is exactly where I'm questioning myself. Am I actually building a robust decision system, or just creating a very expensive bowl of spaghetti with enough layers to make it look intelligent? I'm especially interested in honest feedback on: * How you would evaluate whether a data source or signal actually adds useful information * How to detect redundant or highly correlated signals * Whether my approach of using multiple filters and gates is reasonable, or likely to overfit * How much complexity is justified before it becomes impossible to validate * What you would focus on next: better data, better validation, backtesting, simplification, or something else The system is still evolving, and I have a fairly detailed theoretical document describing the architecture. I'm not looking for validation. If the design is fundamentally overengineered, statistically weak, or heading toward a full-blown spaghetti monster, I'd rather know now than after adding another 20 modules. Brutal criticism and alternative approaches are welcome. Here the architecture document and my trading log (very spaghetti) if anyone is interested. [cryptotradingsystem.baolele8.workers.dev](https://cryptotradingsystem.baolele8.workers.dev/) [drive.google.com/file/d/1ZQWRHx9Ff8sFIJETEsxzMxuApwVLQmpL/view?usp=sharing](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZQWRHx9Ff8sFIJETEsxzMxuApwVLQmpL/view?usp=sharing) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

TheresNoSecondBest

6.15 BTC exactly.

Friendly-Attempt-279

I think this is actually a solid prediction. 5 BTC puts you comfortably enough with the 4% rule. I would like to leave some for children though, it’s only going to get harder for future generations in this economy.

TheresNoSecondBest

It's called Magic Internet Money after all. All you need is to HODL exactly 6.15 BTC and you're all set.

Muted-Ad-5790

Thanks for the help all. I actually forced the password using the software mentioned here and python with a bit of help from chat gpt Couldn’t believe it after 8 million password tries but alas the wallet had 0.1 BTC Still mad from 14 years ago nearly When I got the address finally it showed at one point in 2013 I had 5 coins and it shows where I sent them all to keep them safe What an idiot I don’t have access to the other wallets that I know of but I have a trail to follow now so maybe I will turn more up Meantime it’s a few thousand for nothing Cheers all

AutoModerator

Post is by: Kind_Magazine5781 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1w2l8i0/maybe_the_hardest_partof_crypto_is_doing_nothing/ Crypto feels interesting again after BTC puhsed back above 80K recently. But honestly, I'm less interested i guessing the next candle and more interested in watching how people react to the move *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

WorthBeat1102

100% brain unlocked. Side effect: checking the BTC price every 5 minutes 😂

poor_doc_pure

I would guess close to 100 BTC however i do love my job.

2LostFlamingos

If I have only BTC and no other investments? Something like 50-100

Minimum-Let-7604

Depends on what your annual expected BTC withdrawal rate is based on lifestyle, location, any dependents, and also your age If I retired, I might withdraw 0.1 BTC per year and that should last. Obviously assuming it isn’t used as the global currency by then

oxxoMind

The cash they raised went to their dollar reserve instead of buying BTC. All those actions, selling BTC, increasing dollar reserve for more than 2 years of dividend payments are requirements for them to get added in the S&P index.

Inglorious_User

BTC will fall again be careful

magical_matey

We can do some long term speculation as well, we wouldn’t want to exclude people who hype the 4 year cycle. It happened 3 times already and is a bullet proof trend analysis. Also these people are all gambling on, I mean, investing in, this locked in guarantee. You’d be a fool not to put everything you own into BTC now

Elf_Maeve

Why not say this when it was $200 cock suckers. Now that they all finally bought BTC they say this shit.

jimbojw

Sadly, I lost all of my BTC in an unfortunate ColdCard accident.

StormEducational1752

I also have a futures trade open but my money always ends up being tied up for a long time. Two months ago, I opened a long on BTC at $67K and left it open with a target of $85K. But last week when BTC came back down to $67K I was getting a lot of pressure from my family. Because of that pressure, I closed the trade just so I wouldn’t have to wait for such a long time again. When I woke up the next morning, BTC was already above $70K. I basically lost a $1,900 profit because of one mistake.

PuzzleheadedBid4049

this is actually interesting way to frame it, i like how you admit the statistical weakness upfront instead of hiding it the overlapping window problem is real, one thing i tried before is bootstrapping the daily returns but that gets messy with the autocorrelation too, maybe block bootstrap would help but never got it working clean your macro weights feel heavy on DXY but i guess that makes sense for BTC historically

Dry_Date_6462

He is just stating that current price for BTC is above their average purchase price.

No-Anybody2826

Dude QE is starting next week, $40B per month of printing money just to buy back long term debt, massive dollar devaluation and you think BTC will go down?

OxbridgeDingoBaby

Except DOGE is a Top 10 crypto and second only to BTC, probably the most well recognised one too. Neither of the coins you mentioned have any of that going for them.

JoopMens

Why today? I don’t look at day targets for BTC. I only to DCA in and around my cycle targets only.

BastiatF

> The exchange controls the keys and can freeze or transfer the assets Not your keys not your coins > If authorities seize a computer, phone, hardware wallet, seed phrase, or other material that gives them access to the private key, they can transfer the BTC to a government-controlled wallet. That's why you never store it unencrypted on a computer > Bitcoin's public blockchain makes transactions unusually traceable. Good luck tracking ownership of coins going from self-custody wallet to self-custody wallet. That's why the state hates them and calls them "unhosted". Also coinjoins and lightning exist. > Authorities can follow coins till they get converted to cash then seize that. You can cross borders storeling 12 words in your head. Good luck seizing that.

PeteyPab305

Everytime a alt-coiner buys BTC; a bagger gets his wings!

FunWithSkooma

much better to use LBTC to clean up your BTC, no reason to risk your coins with mixers, it not 2016 anymore

LevelStationaryPlane

1.Don’t invest more than you’re willing to lose 2. Don’t over invest so you’re pulling BTC to pay bills

foslforever

its been a very long time since ive made a transaction with BTC, is it expensive today to transfer money and does it take a long time? Can people in Iran actually use BTC or is it more of a transport your life savings out of the country sort of thing

MiaTaude589

Ouch, “rent your home and convert every dime” is advice that only sounds safe when you’ve already got billionaire-level cushions. I still hold BTC, but cash covers boring stuff like rent, taxes, and emergencies, and I’m not putting that on a coin whose price can drop 30% in a month. The self-made argument is a separate fight anyway, Minecraft proves fortunes can be built without inheriting the whole thing lol

Disastrous_Fee5953

Sold his Vespa and used to money for leverage BTC trading. They posted about it around 2 days ago.

PsychedelicHypnosis

I mean I’ll do a DCA purchase once a week and I don’t think much or look at it much except when transferring it to cold storage, I agree with him there. Him saying you should rent your house and use the proceeds for bitcoin is pretty disconnected to how much money the average person has. Where tf am I going to live if I rent my house? I suppose I could rent my house and rent another one lol. I know he’s really just saying use extra cash for BTC, but damn man know your audience haha.

Even-Outcome-2342

Yes, there must be people who bought pizza using BTC. I hope the pizza tasted amazing.

Efficient-Concept713

Most convincing BTC theory I’ve seen in years

Next-Ambassador9097

Dune is going to kill BTC?