BTC

KateR_H0l1day

There’ll be a lot of people writing about the second half of 2026 in the future, all about how they wish they’d have bought more during that period. And many more writing about how they wish they hadn’t sold when they did. And, yes this is definitely a prediction for what we’ll see! The smart money is looking at the markets, and considering when to rotate out of the S&P500/Nasdaq etc; back into Crypto, primarily BTC. I sold some SPY in the last month and bought BTC. I’m planning to do the same during the rest of this year, but only when I feel the prices are right both ways, and it’ll be relatively small amounts.

Peepzer

I could see the bip-110 stuff causing issues more so than Saylor. Saylor's a net buyer still and his last sell saw BTC go up in the near term. I think there's actually some relief there that people finally can see him as a human not a "I will always buy and never sell" bot. BTC was made to be transacted both ways! S&P is an interesting one. It's true that AI plays have had some shaky days recently, but I tend to believe these crazy upward moves can continue longer than seems reasonable.

No-Masterpiece2246

tbf BTC has much bigger problems than spam. Like, massive rehypothecation and naked shorting

Dangerous_Relief8971

"assuming BTC doesn't crash any lower" is doing about 90% of the work in this analysis lol. love the effort though, this sub needs more spreadsheets and fewer "wen moon" posts

everyoneisapotato

I don’t know how it works or what forces are behind it but this 4 year cycle is something else lol. This will be my 4th cycle and for the first 2 cycles i watched and played a little here and there. But in last cycle i planned it started DCAing when BTC was around 20-25k (low was 15k) and I sold most of my BTC and other crypto around 97-100k. This cycle i started again around 60k. I hope these cycles keep on playing and we can make some smart money. ETH performed real shit last cycle and I hope it breaks 5k this time. ✌🏻

SnooSnoo_1988

I know i had atleast 1 BTC in my Mt.Gox account. Never got it back and was too late to claim in the law suit.

Big-Finding2976

It's ETH and BTC that will fail.

Pacman_Frog

Okay... Here's the thing. That is a BTC wallet...from 2013. This means there are other wallets on forked block chains that have the same seed and also contain funds. Convert that shit to Bitcoin!

gorgonfr

It is all speculation. Could also never get to ATH again if fiat money gets scarce in next years. Enough time that people forget about BTC.

BestialitySurprise

I'm the opposite. If I see it surging even more after a ridiculous climb, I'm out. I'm too disciplined to buy when it's climbing. The people who panic are the ones transferring their money to those who are patient. I think there's going to be a long slump ahead. The cap on market BTC is getting big. Those who say they're holding until a million are dillusional. These price swings are going to stabilize now that BTC is mainstream, which is a good thing for the holders.

DangerHighVoltage111

Bitcoin is an idea for sound money where everyone can control their own money and transact p2p. It will never be obsolete. BTC got hijacked and ossifiers are slow to update and users will be even slower to migrate if they ever update. However other Bitcoins like Bitcoin Cash are not slowed down and already have QC save options that people can transfer too.

Timely-Fig2030

BTC > ETH > ICP feels like the natural progress. People say it for the last 6 years and lots of people got burned in ICP, but i still believe Internet Computer is the logical next step. Bitcoin feels old and slow. If you add the lightning network to bitcoin, then bitcoin also has just 1 company behind it, which doesn't make it different from ETH or ICP. So it is what it is. In this case internet computer is far more advanced. Just because ETH and ICP had more reliable gains in the past, doesn't mean it has to be like that in the future.

2xfun

I grind of mine just bought 2 properties. How? Payed with BTC ofc 

Brian_GRAY123

BTC giving crumbs and calling it mercy

arcrenciel

It is the same as stocks. You have the penny stocks, which most altcoins are. Buy these, and you either beoome insanely rich, or lose all your money. You usually just lose your money though haha. Then you have the blue chips, which is BTC/ETH. These are proclaimed dead every 4 years, but has always managed to come back stronger.

substandard2

Simple. You trade BTC for profit. Stop holding it.

razorfox

Just buy BTC and hold 😎❤️

Internet_is_tough

You don't understand the basics, but I am not here to educate you. BTC and ETH do different things.

BrokenHefaistos

Epstein basically funded the research that laid the foundations of BTC, dude needed kidcoin for his ops.

Bitches172882

Yeah, “BTC is holding strong” and “BTC hasn’t caught down yet” are the same candle with different captions ..nobody actually knows which until it’s obvious in hindsight.

NotNowImAsleep

Doesn't matter, he's been banned. The story didn't add up. Someone with substance abuse wouldn't sit on 1BTC, he would have cashed out real fast.

Gears6

or someone being more realistic despite supporting BTC. The time of that kind of increase is likely long gone for this specific "asset".

Logical_driver_42

Yeah I didn’t check that specific wallet I was just alive during the time. One of my friends spent a few hundred / 1000 dollars and it ended up being something crazy like .2 BTC we were looking back when BTC was 120k and thinking it was pretty dumb not to hold them.

Specific_Essay6041

But why take the risk with BTC? That boat has sailed, even if it gets to 150 or even 200 and one buys in at 60k that isn’t any different than SPY in the last 5-6 years and SPY is much safer in historical returns compared to who knows what may happen to BTC

No-Net3991

Exactly. The market doesn’t just transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient it transfers BTC from those who need certainty to those who can operate without it. Everyone says they want the discount, but few are emotionally prepared for the conditions that create it.

theincognito66

the people calling for 40k will either not even have enough dry powder to buy a lot if it happens... or it will never reach that low, and they will buy back in at 100k+ Everyone gets BTC at the price they deserve.

Grelkator

CARF and DAC8 make cryptos and specifically BTC use case useless, it's essentially a CBDC with forever transparency

Doritos707

Leaving other coins in shambles is not a thing that concerns BTC development wise.

Vast_Sky_3726

Giving strangers your wallet lol why? If you cant find seed phrase your done, also sint know how you can see how much BTC he has without the seed phrase

Serenaded

\>Will quantum computing’s advancement make bitcoin obsolete? You can google this. The answer is yes. There is no fundamental way for something that lives on SHA256 to still be functional after quantum doomsday. And this is probably why ETH is breaking away from BTC, and elites are pivoting to ETH. Quantum doomsday is coming in the next 10 years, probably faster now that US gov is throwing trillions of dollars in funding into it.

DefinitionScared8574

Congrats 🙌 I also started my BTC journey and DCA weekly.

Good_Extension_9642

Sorry to hear you lost all you precious BTC OP, this is one of the reasons I buy BTC ETF instead

Good_Extension_9642

Hey OP, I get what you're saying but I have read too many scary stories about people getting scammed and losing all their BTC, or losing it in another way like forgetting your seed phrase, sending it to the wrong address, losing your 24 would etc, so as soon as the ETF were available, I only by IBIT instead

NonVideBunt

I mean, BTC has lost a lot of market cap. You think it can’t go lower? Your head will spin how fail BTC can and will fail. But you should ride it all the way down… because .. it has value!

DiamondHandsDarrell

😂 Good luck! But you might be trying to send from one wallet type to another. Best advice I can give is get yourself a paid ChatGPT account and have it walk you through it. Explain in detail what you have going on. Otherwise you might send your BTC to a wrong wallet or type and lose it all

DiamondHandsDarrell

Yeah I hear you though. Over the years I've seen a lot of people have issues. My only issue was that my mailing address didn't match my living address. EXTREMELY annoying, but it wasn't more than $250 per BTC yet. It took some back and forth, when they still had customer service reps you could call, but it was addressed. If that happened to me now 😱. But I'll tell you this much: because of my experience with them, I don't think I could trust anyone else at the point.

Wide_Lock_Red

ETH was at 150-700 in 2020. BTC was way lower too. Things start looking bad if you bought in mid 2021 though or went for bad alt coins.

LibertyWithLiquidity

We will likely see $100,000 hourly candles on some days when BTC is trading in the 7 figures. Plan accordingly, stop consuming worthless slop & stack like a retard.

DullLimit5629

What error do you get? "Can't move it" is too vague. Is it an "invalid private key," "insufficient funds," "missing inputs," or broadcast error? Verify the address. Import the key into Electrum, copy the receiving address, and check it on a block explorer. Is the 0.1 BTC really still there? Compressed vs. uncompressed key. Bitcoin wallets from 2013 sometimes used different address formats. The same private key can correspond to different addresses depending on whether it's interpreted as compressed or uncompressed. Import vs. sweep. In Electrum, try sweeping the private key instead of importing it. Sweeping creates a transaction that transfers the coins into a new wallet you control. Wallet encryption or script type. If it's an old wallet.dat or the key belongs to a P2SH/P2WPKH address, the wallet may need the correct derivation or script type. Never DM anyone your key. Anyone who sees the private key can steal the BTC instantly. Ignore anyone asking for screenshots or the key

jbville003

If you sold at 100k you would've panic bought back in at 120k because BTC increased a whole 20% more??? A minor 20% jump shouldn't be enough to make anyone panic buy. Selling anywhere over 100k and buying back in below 60k thus nearly doubling your holdings is a smart move.

MathematicianFar6725

Will happen to the people who bought BTC as well

Ok_Crow_1623

What happen if you sent 3.588 BTC for 216 million company never sends the money 💰

Lefties_TheWorst7331

Umm.. 21m hard cap which most has been mined into circulation already. First coin to exist, no other ALTernative coins have surpassed or even gotten close to surpassing its market cap. Backed by true PoW. It doesn't need shit like NFT utility or utility to build a bunch of shit coins on its blockchain. Everyone acquires BTC at the price(s) they deserve. Few understand. There is no second best. They're called ALTcoins for a reason.

Rabimaster

I had 0.68BTC in there when the FED shut it down!

Odd-Fun-1482

Yeah if you are primarily BTC/ETH mix you'll be sitting in the -30% to -40% range

Al-Fayyad

I was pretty big on Reddit’s darknet sub. The early days were like the wild wild west and BTC was so much more easy to acquire(and cheaper). I sincerely think I used BTC more even legally then then I do now

Spicyocto

100k-200k this summer? Oh sweet summer child you’ve been had. BTC is going to continue to bleed for the rest of the year Just put it into the back of your mind Abe come back in a 2 years. If you need the money then you shouldn’t have bought during a bear market with the aim of selling in the bear market

dfdsousa

Yes! I spent 3BTC in one g of MDMA

Popular_Broccoli133

I love the BTC holders response of "should have bought MY shitcoin!" lol. Talk about missing the point.

FitCompetition1804

If you just think of BTC as an “investment”, then the ETF route has its place. Bitcoin is so much more though depending on your mindset, your trust, and your desire to be truly self sovereign in a SHTF situation. It may seem intimidating, but I highly suggest you research and educate yourself on how to self custody BTC. Are there risks associated, yes. But almost all of those risks are basically user error that can be avoided by taking the time to understand what you are doing and what to avoid. I’m about the same age as you, and while I dabbled with bitcoin in the past, this was the year I actually educated myself as I was waiting for a bear market to finally start accumulating with some seriousness. I have no intention of selling for at least the next 15 years… if ever. This second half of the year will be a great opportunity to start your journey and accumulate with conviction. Bitcoin is no longer a get rich quick scheme, so as long as you understand that and have reasonable expectations, it’s an asset unlike many with its own unique benefits. With that said, I would still diversify with traditional investments as well… but for now in this current market, accumulate that BTC.

Popular_Broccoli133

Yea you're right sorry. Ok so I open up a bitcoin chart, which is something that I understand is very complex and difficult for you to do. Then I scroll over to July 7 at 4am on the 1 week chart. And by the way let me know if any part of this isn't making sense, since apparently this is really difficult for you fathom doing. I understand you might be developmentally challenged so I'm not trying to make light of the situation. The price at the time of the transaction was $63,134.48, which means the transaction amounts are: 0.00139266 BTC or $87.92 0.00066375 BTC or $41.91 Any other basic tasks I can help you with? Would you like me to help you chew your lunch too?

DrSpeckles

The chance of anything still being around in 10 years is slim. Yes, even BTC. The main use case p2p cash is now provided by banks, except for edge cases like war zones and of course sanction busting. There is no compelling reason for it to go up anymore, more likely they all gradually drop to obscurity. There are far better locations for your retirement money now.

RetiredAvocado

Eh it's not all zeros. The cost to keep it safe and maybe insure it is real. There's more to changing BTC scarcity than some ones and zeros. You'd have to convince nodes and miners to update their own ones and zeros. And ya can't make them do that, nor reach into their computer and do it yourself. There's no auto update in bitcoin.

Lefties_TheWorst7331

One ETF would be hard to satisfy a market of millions or billions who want a slice. That's a terrible analogy or comparison to BTC.. let's be real.

mrjune2040

I just don’t know where you could have gotten the ‘ETH is outdated’ line from, other than an altcoin sub with an agenda. Because it’s just patently wrong, it’s literally the only smart contract protocol with a critical mass of uptake and last time I looked Ethereum and it’s L2’s accounted for the vast majority of all TVL and (real) transaction volume, plus EVM is what most banks and institutions are using to build their private blockchains on, plus the web3 Neo banks too. But broader advice, 99% of tokens outside of BTC will fail- so your current allocation is probably already too broad if you’re risk averse.

AirSpecial

I’m glad you got caught, it save a lot of lives. Hope you learned your lesson, if you get caught again it’ll be way worse. Hopefully you still have a lot of BTC.

RoaringDragonSword

Cringe. You have yet to learn that very few make money on altcoins long-term. They can get lucky first trades. That will never lead them to investing into safer assets like BTC and ETH. Instead what they do is gambling their winnings and lose it. Do you know what you call these people? Gambling idiots. Granted, investing in BTC and ETH to some is already considered gambling.

FitCompetition1804

It literally went up when he sold recently. BTC is just doing what BTC does. See you in 2029.

CryptoBot_Pro_117

Never forget the whitepapper. While they print money, BTC don't

blaziken8x

I would say dump everything and just hold BTC. But honestly, right now I would just leave it alone. Those will all probably move up in price alongside BTC when it moves. I buy when crypto fear and greed index is low (under 20) and move positions or sell when it's high (over 80). https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/fear-and-greed-index/

ElephantEarTag

Your holding SOL, the king of rug pulls, and your worried that XRP is a scam? My dude, divorce yourself from alts and stack BTC like it's gold.

The_Bitcoin_Act

Buying through a KYC exchange with a credit card or PayPal does mean that company now has your ID tied to that specific BTC purchase, and if you ever send those exact coins somewhere, there’s a paper trail back to you. If privacy matters to you here, the more common approach is buying without KYC in the first place, through peer-to-peer platforms like HodlHodl or Peach, or a local in-person cash trade, or a Bitcoin ATM that doesn’t require ID under a certain amount depending on your state. A few other things that help regardless of how you buy: always generate a fresh receiving address for each transaction rather than reusing one (Trezor does this automatically if you let it), and avoid linking a KYC purchase directly to a privacy-sensitive spend, like buying on Coinbase and immediately sending straight to pay for your email. Adding a hop or two, or letting the coins sit a while, breaks that obvious link. Some people also use coin control features in wallets like Sparrow to manage which coins they’re spending from. As for whether you should still buy through the credit card/PayPal route, that’s really a tradeoff between convenience and privacy, not really a security downgrade.

Lavayo

When I'm talking about coins I won't sell no matter what it's the BTC set aside for my kids. If I sold those at 100k I would have panic bought them back at 120k. Waiting out the bear market is comparatively easy actually. Much less stressful.

Lefties_TheWorst7331

And that's why you DCA and hold.. if you hold for a handful of years you're green on BTC.. with ALTs that doesn't always apply. Also, compare market cap of BTC to ALTs.. and you say they're all the same? Interesting..

BuyIndependent2319

I spent at least 20 BTC on drugs back then. Completely stupid. As soon as I bought bitcoin I’d want to spend it because who knew if it would fall in price and my $15 bitcoins could be worth only $14

edmcryptodad

I “invested” $35k, took out $77k, and have $20k left to reinvest. Waiting for BTC to bottom, then try again. 🤞

Internet_is_tough

Don't travel in bear markets lol. I have a cash buffer to last me for a full cycle (4 years). I refill the cash buffer when BTC weekly rsi is above 70. Happens once every year or two years. The cash buffer depletes only if BTC dies for 4 years. Invested portfolio is in btc mstr and bmnr.

OliveLegitimate3236

I have a position whew my APR is paid out in BTC on a daily basis, so the lower it goes the more Sats I get and I pray every night it'll stay cheap for a little longer. Unfortunately the liquidity pool is getting drier and once momentum reverse it'll be over.

Buster_xx

He said s doing n the Epstein list and dillutes investors. His last " sale" didnt even move the market. Just buy BTC, and ignore this pedo

Lefties_TheWorst7331

BTC is the same? By what metrics?

NonVideBunt

BTC is the same, no different. You’ll see eventually. No crying in the casino when it happens.

NonVideBunt

We will see what the long term chart for BTC looks like. Eventually at a macro level it will look like this.

NonVideBunt

Exactly.. crypto is just a casino and a scam, BTC and ETH included.

NonVideBunt

I mean… I wouldn’t exactly call BTC is the best path to wealth. If you got in anytime recently, better options for your money.

Lefties_TheWorst7331

Stop buying ALT coins and stick to BTC. DCA and hodl.

Fearless-Carrot-666

Lol 99% of crypto coins/tokens turned out to be a complete scam. Only people I know who made money after all these years were the ones who bought BTC, Eth, BNB back around 2016 or earlier. Almost all the other "utility" coins were abandoned by the teams or converted to "community" developed when they were ready to exit scam lol.

DifficultSquash1517

I'm an OG since 2016 and Im buying a significantly less amount of BTC this cycle. I do feel that everyone thinks this is easy money and they got it figured out to just try to buy Bitcoin near the lows and wait a couple of years and you're going to print four or five X🤷 Just like how everyone thought they had last cycle figured out where they would rotate into old coins and it wasn't that easy and it got their asses handed to them This time many people are going to stay away from altcoins or their plan is to hold BTC a lot longer and then eventually rotate into altcoins. But the markets have sneaky ways of doing things you don't expect that's why I think that maybe all coins will run without Bitcoin leaving everyone in the dust or Bitcoin will stay flat for yrs etc This cycle I will be averaging in to only about 20% of what I had in the last cycle. I will continue to write calls on my BTC ETFs for 1-2% a month... So even if BTC stays flat for years or even goes down 20 or 30% I'll still break even at worst case scenario because of my call premiums 🤷

packet

You think BTC has no use and ETH is outdated? What in the world are you basing this on? Even btc and eth are highly speculative long term investments and have no place as a primary investment vehicle for retirement. Buy a total market index fund of equities and mix in some crypto (like 5%) if you like but total market index fund is the only correct answer for the base of retirement savings.

MythicMango

Even if you swap for BTC and ETH what would you do with those in retirement? 

cryptofriday

what BTC price was that time???

MF_Price

I was going to buy $100 worth at ~7 cents but it was complicated to buy so I spent the money on weed instead. I did lose 7.5 BTC that I got from a fountain around the same time. Don't fool yourself into thinking you spent millions on bullshit though. What you spent was what the BTC was worth when you spent it, not what it's worth now. That is because any BTC you spent you *could have* replaced buying it at that same price at the time.

cc99v

Only for people who didn’t buy BTC

eazybreeze

How much is BTC up over 10 years tho? And how has the purchasing power of your Dollar been affected in those 10 years?

terribliz

A lot of people have this fantasy where they think they would have held their BTC until now when the reality is they almost certainly would have panic sold during one of the numerous crashes.

Worldly-Ad-1274

I completely hear you guys, and honestly, I don't disagree with the core of what you're saying. Self-sovereignty and holding your own keys is the entire point of Bitcoin. That’s exactly why I am not stopping my weekly spot BTC DCA and my core cold-storage stack is completely untouchable. But MSTR isn't my core savings; it's just a cyclical trading tool for me. Regarding the company 'not standing on its feet much longer,' Saylor recently shifted strategies to focus heavily on liquidity defense—even utilizing small sales of Bitcoin to stack hundreds of millions in pure cash to service debt and dividends. To me, that means they have built a cushion to survive the bad days. If the company fails, my core Bitcoin stack is perfectly safe in my own custody. But if the leverage machine works during the next bull run, I fund some amazing family vacations without having to compromise my sovereign Bitcoin stack!

Worldly-Ad-1274

Great question! It comes down to two things: Corporate Leverage and BTC Yield. When I DCA into spot Bitcoin, I get a pure 1:1 return on my money. But MicroStrategy operates like a Bitcoin acquisition machine on steroids. They issue billions of dollars in low-interest convertible bonds and preferred shares to aggressively buy massive amounts of Bitcoin on the open market. Because they use debt to buy more Bitcoin per share faster than they dilute the stock (a metric they track as 'BTC Yield'), each individual share of MSTR actually represents a growing amount of Bitcoin over time. Historically, this structural corporate leverage means that when Bitcoin goes on a sustained upward run, MSTR's equity value acts like a high-beta proxy, routinely giving 1.5x to 3x the return of spot Bitcoin. Since my MSTR position is purely a 'lifestyle fund' that I plan to cash out during the bull market, I want that amplified upside!

Brrgyy689

If you're looking for the best, Coldcard bar none. The new MK5 looks great. Look up BTC Sessions vid on it. Also consider ways to backup your seed phrase on steel.  I went with a trezor safe 3 to start but wish I just spent double and got a cold card, that being said the safe 3 is super simple and great wallet. As far as exchanges, I love Bull Bitcoin and what they stand for but the spread is higher from what I've seen, 2-2.5%. usually I do my bigger lump sums from Bitcoin well and recurring small daily buys from Shakepay. To reduce taxes, I have no answer. Borrow against it and don't sell when your stack is so large. Buy things in Bitcoin when hopefully more of the world will accept it. For now, we just stack.

revanevan7

MSTR went up 4000% from bottom to top last cycle while bitcoin did 800%. So yes, you could get higher returns with higher volatility with MSTR. Will it happen the same exact way this cycle? No one knows, but there is a chance. Which is why I hold a small MSTR position relative to my BTC position. If it out performs, I plan on rolling it into BTC or using it for life.

Mecanik1337

Thanks! Good luck catching that BTC!

_Stylite

I bought $1-500 of BTC for darknet purchases every year from 2012-2023. I made two purchases from the original silkroad in 2012 with BTC I bought for $20-100 each on Mt Gox. It was like 3-5 BTC spent on an ounce of hashish

Secularnirvana

Because it is that swingingy, like BTC is the most stable and it suffered a 50% drop in 6 months? At 5x leverage a 20% swing against you liquidates you. So yeah it's a viable strategy, and a few guys have made piles doing that. And probably 20-100x more people have gotten completely rekt doing that

bowltar

I've burned more BTC than most modern accumulators will ever see. No, I didn't have the wherewithal to save any of it. Hindsight sure is 20/20 huh?

cryptotouchline

One thing I would say is don't trust anyone who DM you claiming they can recover your BTC. That is one of the scams as well after someone gets their wallet drained. You may try to trace what happened. Did you ever save your phrase anywhere, connect to a sketchy/scammy App, or approve something you weren't sure about? Figuring that out might at least stop it from happening again. If you are planning to report it, this article is actually pretty useful. It goes through where you can report crypto scams, what information to gather, and some of the common tactics scammers use so others don't fall for the same thing: [https://businesscommunity.ai/how-to-avoid-crypto-scams/](https://businesscommunity.ai/how-to-avoid-crypto-scams/) Really hope you're able to get some answers. Losing years of DCA like that is heartbreaking.

Pale-Gear7776

I understand that, which is why I'm not too upset about it. It's just fun thinking of the "what-ifs". Kind of like buying a lottery ticket. At one point in time, I owned assets that grew to be worth $20 million with BTC at all time high. Which is pretty cool/crazy to think about.

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DepressedYoungin

Why use BTC with its transaction fees and very low tps.

Present-Tradition-27

Was in when it was only $7. Had a wallet with 10 BTC worth about $72. Spent it on drugsssss

nugnug90

BTC is investing, crypto is gambling.

dank4us12

Google how to mine BTC in 2026

Unlikely_Diver_5573

u're definitely not the only one. a lot of early BTC got spent on things that seemed insignificant at the time because nobody imagined where the price would end up.....