BTC

Pal3-Assignment

SPY is up over 70% in five years BTC is only up 38% in that same time

EdgeQuiet2199

Easy to say in hindsight though. Every cycle feels “different” until it isn’t. Big money helps, sure, but BTC still does things no one expects. Waiting forever for a crash isn’t great… but assuming deep drops can’t happen anymore isn’t safe either.

Turbulent_Deal_3145

I was in a similar position last year. Bitcoin is good. But don't miss the forest for the trees. You need to diversify. Personally I don't like selling things I already own, so I didn't sell any BTC but I did stop contributing so I could bring my allocation down while I contributed to other things. There's a whole universe of things to invest in out there. I never recommend individual stocks unless you're an ultra expert (which 99.9% of people are not, myself included). As far as ETFs go, you have the greatest hits like S&P500, DOWJONES, and NASDAQ. I personally recommend one called XEQT. It's a broad market ETF like the S&P but it's more globalized and not so dependent on the US economy. You want stuff you don't have to manage or think about. Because you're going to hold these investments for probably 30 years. You're doing great. Well ahead of the curve for your age. Don't put all your eggs in one basket is the main thesis of this comment. That's the beauty of ETFs. You're buying dozens or hundreds of different stocks which insulates you from the volatility of one company.

ddbbccoopper

Exactly. ETH is a shark-duck that lives in trees. What is the latest *(enter obscure world city name)* upgrade to make the next change-de-jour? From world computer, BTC killer, ESG conforming PoS, massive upgrade proto-danksharding. ETH is a mishmash of technobabble, buzzword-salad to lure people into buying the garbage.

derbyfan1

The correct site is; [AI Predicts Bitcoin — 10 AI Models, Daily BTC Predictions](https://www.aipredictsbitcoin.com/)

Complex_Caramel_2847

20k of BTC is not that accurate just state how much BTC you have I.e. .02 BTC.

ArchHammer69

Whales own BTC and you don’t.

CryptoOnTheSidewalk

I usually pull from the more volatile side like ETH because short gaps can miss sharper moves, while BTC tends to behave a bit more predictably, but either way there’s real timing risk over just 3 to 4 months so you have to accept you might re-enter higher.

biba8163

> If you think 0.04 BTC is low, the ETH/BTC ratio is going to feel like getting kicked in the nuts over and over again over the long term as the ratio falls below 0.01 and goes lower and lower. **(Sept. 2024)** > Long term ALL Alts follow the same trend and fall below the initial BTC value they started at. Pretty much all the older Alts, even the most successful fall below this value. ETH is also trending long term to fall below this value. People talk about historic trends, patterns and cycles but this has been the only 1 undisputed and unbroken pattern for 14 years. > | | Initial | High | Current | > |:-----------|------------:|:------------:|------------:| > | LTC | 0.03 BTC| 0.048 BTC | 0.001 BTC > | XRP | 5,594 SATS| 22,500 SATS | 940 SATS > | XMR | 0.005 BTC| 0.035 BTC | 0.0029 BTC > | ETH | 0.01 BTC | 0.15 BTC | 0.041 BTC https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1fgzm3z/daily_crypto_discussion_september_15_2024_gmt0/ln9jvct/

IBAN-IBON64

C'est pas de l'investissement c'est du casino ! BTC HODL !

GloryIV

57 years old and retired. My portfolio is about 2/3rds BTC or BTC-derived (BTC, MSTR, STRC). I do have a scattering of crypto that I accumulated years ago. Most of it isn't worth selling...

coolphil15

yeah even i was waiting for 12K but never came and finally turned to altcoins believing that i am catching them at bottom. But didn't realize altcoins that were cheap were for a reason because last cycle was BTC cycle...trying not to repeat same mistake again and doing DCA on BTC this time

viper2097

Evade tax all you like. It's not my thing. I sold some BTC to buy a house two years ago and paid over a million dollars in capital gains tax that year. That's just how I roll, You do you...

PhotoOk1474

No one has the crypstal ball, but you can still figure something out by obversing BTC's on-chain data.

No-Wrap3568

ColdCard MK5 in my opinion is a good choice. However as of now, I'm using cyphercok X1 in the BTC only firmware and it's been doing the job pretty well, given it removes single points of failures. So you can give it a look as it can also act as a seedphrase backup for your other wallets. Additionaly some of my friends are also using bitbox and blockstream jade and they've faced any security issues, so you can even go with these. Just make sure you understand the architecture of the wallet that you are buying.

mrjune2040

lol, no mate. As someone who was mining both Litecoin and Monero in the beginning- I can tell you for a fact that Litecoin was never anything close to a privacy protocol- MWEB came waaay later and even then it wasn’t a full stack privacy solution (basically a worse version of a ZK implementation which is what anyone who is concerned with obfuscation orientated privacy use today). Litecoin was basically a cute protocol and BTC test-net that never saw proper adoption because its lunch got eaten by smart contract protocols- and in simple privacy terms it offered absolutely no more anonymity than Bitcoin (which is to say, not much).

Realistic_Fee_00001

BTC bend the knee for wallstreet. It got hijacked and crippled. Now it is no threat to the crooked dollar and can be used to extract money from people by wallstreet.

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Post is by: ThothTrader and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/Forex/comments/1ste7h4/bitcoin_gap_detected_bullish_cycle/  In some CFD brokers I have detected this Gap on the weekly and daily chart. This could be a footprint, that BTC has officially reversed. and might be going for a new high? Just wondering. and wanted to share this observation. Cheers, *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

AdProof7896

Is it free and does it also calculate the correlation of flows with the BTC price?

Gangaman666

You mention BTC over at the personalfinance sub and the boomers have a heart attack and ban you. All those subs are useless when it comes to BTC because they are too dumb to understand it.

Remarkable-Opening69

BTC is the distraction. None.

wookie0507

I wish i believed in BTC yrs ago🥺

Appropriate-Till4644

This is a great question that I've been thinking about too - I think there are some clues that show this is the start of a proper recovery vs a mid-bear bounce within the 4y cycle. One clue: look at the weekly RSI and compare it to the previous cycle - it looks much more like the bear has bottomed with a proper trend change vs merely being a mid-bear bounce. Another clue: we're on our way to closing a 4th green weekly candle in this "bear market". Last cycle, we maxed out at 2 consecutive green weeks during the bear. We'll never have certainty, but I think these are some decent clues that we're looking at something different here. Fundamentally, I think this makes quite a lot of sense too because we didn't have the kind of retail-mania-driven blowoff top that characterised previous cycles - none of the classic top signals were flashing. In the '21 cycle, we had the full on retail mania run up and double-topped; we then slid 52% from the ATH in 77 days, followed by a mid-bear bounce of 46% lasting 63 days. This cycle, we've had the same c.52% decline but it took 119 days - 55% slower, which suggests that there was less froth in the market at this ATH vs the previous. We're now 77 days on from "the bottom" and the 46% mid-bear bounce would take us to $87.7k. If I'm wrong and we're still following the 4y cycle, the price will fail to break $90k and resume its downward journey - 55% slower would put this roughly 3wk away (14/05/26) and there are plenty of experts calling for this. If I'm right and the 4y cycle is dead, there will likely be a lot of indecision around $90k followed by a decent breakout, accelerated by a portion of the cycle believers flipping to "bottom's in, we're going up". The next checkpoint that will put the final nail in the coffin of the 4y cycle will be making a fresh ATH way ahead of schedule (not to mention, after "only" collapsing 50% in the "bear market"). I've stuck with the technicals, but there is obviously a rich fundamental narrative as to why the market structure is so different vs previous cycles re. retail vs institutions. I think we're seeing this play out in reduced volatility and the breakdown of the 4y retail-driven cycle. STRC is also turning into a BTC blackhole that will have a positive influence on price to put it lightly.

Illustrious-Boss9356

Right but some of the BTC has to be attributed to the outstanding principal balance of the debt and prefs right? Debt you can exclude because that should already be netted out, but prefs wouldn't be because they're technically equity and not a liability on the balance sheet.

Far-Photograph-2342

If liquidity stays strong and BTC keeps trending up over time, it looks genius. If we hit a deep, prolonged downturn with tight credit conditions, it could get very risky very fast. I think it’s either going to age extremely well or very badly.

crossy1686

I'm not shilling anything, I hold ETH, SOL, and BTC, but it sounds like you're in deep and unable to reflect or even understand what is going on in the development space. I'm a developer in this space and I can tell you for certain that SOL is much more developer friendly. ETH is fragmented compared to SOL, it constantly presents architecture and UX decisions that have to be made, you have to support Mainnet, Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, zkSync, Polygon, each with their own bridges, gas tokens, and liquidity pools. due to its modular design it forces you to choose between Layer-1 and a range of Layer-2 environments, each with different tradeoffs in tooling, liquidity, and UX. It's a nightmare. Everything on Solana happens on a single layer which makes Solana much faster, and gives UX consistency. You don't need to manage bridging logic or offload execution elsewhere. This means that every dApp on Solana can interact with every other dApp instantly, without bridging. On Ethereum, if your dApp lives on Base and wants to compose with something on Arbitrum, you're building async bridging infrastructure. On Solana, you just call it. Solana transaction costs are around $0.00025, which means you can execute strategies that would be impossible on ETH at any layer. If you're building a game, a payments app, or anything with high transaction volume per user, ETH L1 is a non-starter and even L2s can still be 100-1000x more expensive than SOL. You simply can't charge a user a dime every time they do something in your app. A few things that show Solana's momentum: * Solana has surpassed Ethereum in weekly dApp revenue for five consecutive weeks, with Ethereum now sitting in third place behind Solana and Hyperliquid * Solana is coming off a year of 186% year-over-year revenue growth * Solana processes over 50% of global DEX volume

KiIIerMrSingh

I genuinely feel like BTC will vastly outperform s&p in the next 10 years. Technology moves along so quickly and we’re already getting mass adoption by the banks, I think it’s only a matter of time until people realise it’s one of the best investments (with real utility) that you can make.

waveguy9

My mom passed away in 2016 and I was left a little bit of money, enough for a nice 2-week vacation lets say. And I met this local expat guy while out surfing in Costa Rica and later I met him and his girlfriend for dinner and drinks. At dinner, he explained the whole BTC blockchain technology to me, which I thought was a total bullshit Ponzi scheme. Fast forward a couple of months and I see one of these BTC vending machines on the UCSB campus. I thought, what the hell, and bought 3 BTC thinking, “if anything, if it is a Ponzi maybe I'll get in early enough that I can at least make a couple thousand bucks. Fast forward about a year later and each one was worth $1200-$1300. I cashed one to get my money back and saved the other two. Then a year later each one was worth $16K, so I sold another one and kept one. I ended up going back down to Costa Rica in January of 2020 and met up with the EX Pat guy. The guy now has an incredible house right on the ocean and I hung out with him for a week he obviously did well with all the BTC he purchased… This time he tells me that ETH is the next BTC and that I should definitely buy some. ETH in early 2020 was like $125-$149 give or take. I get home and two months later Covid hits and I'm stuck at home and I see ETH was like 115 dollars, I knew by this guy's house and lifestyle he was either incredibly smart or incredibly lucky, so I said, “F it it's the end of the world anyway YOLO” and bought 50 ETH! Boom! Within a year, 50 ETH was worth $60K, I cashed enough to buy another BTC. Then in 2021 AGAIN a year later in March, BTC and ETH are at ATH crazy money… The rest is history. No bullshit! And no I didn't buy more of either. I cashed everything put a down payment on a house in the US and bought a house in Costa Rica. All because I was making stupid decisions and got lucky. I also started spending ridiculous amounts of money on stupid shit. I'm lucky I still have a house to still live in now and can Airbnb Costa house, which pay pays for the upkeep the and my vacations down there. 🫡🤙

Knight925

Isn't this basically just borrowing money at an loanshark-rate, in the hopes that the BTC-purchase will cover it? I like Bitcoin, but this seems irresponsible.

umirinbrah29

Why 50/50 when ETH has a much lower market cap and imo does not have the same moat. Ethereum has potential competitors that could displace it, BTC does not. I would weight no more than 80/20 personally.

Equal-Button

10,000 BTC is still 10,000 BTC and always will be. If you think of it in terms of fiat then he only spent $41. You can get $41 back easy so no problem right?

juunhoad

Someone on X mentioned "why is nobody talking about BTC hitting almost 80k?" Well because nobody is actually buying, just pure manipulation, as always.

umirinbrah29

Because I don't have access to the amount of capital or financial instruments he does? I also cannot hold spot BTC in an ISA. But to a small extent, I do use the Saylor playbook with my own finances, it's just limited to my personal income as I don't have the ability to issue new shares to cover myself. I have, and will continue to, accept any low rate offers to buy spot BTC if the minimum payment is within my budget, i.e. taking out 0% interest CC offers.

GIGAbtcHodl

Saving money in BTC... and will continue doing it in 2028

OilOdd3144

The concentration risk here isn't just 'what if BTC dumps' — it's 'what if MSTR faces forced liquidation at a margin threshold.' That second-order risk creates a correlated sell pressure that a vanilla BTC holder isn't priced into. The more institutional the holders, the more BTC starts behaving like a leveraged equity index during drawdowns rather than a non-correlated store of value. That tension is worth watching more closely than the raw accumulation numbers.

R4ID

>So how much to crack a single bitcoin public key? I just gave you the range. do you not understand? or are you asking how much it is to build the thing? you're kinda asking an impossible question atm. >No he isn't. Just because you're clueless on the topic doesnt make it true. Again he is an invited guest speaker at the largest BTC conference (multiple times) alongside other lunatics like Saylor & Ryan Selkis. He may not be YOUR leader, he is 100% considered a leader in the BTC space by their community. >I don't know why you think it's the strongest option. It is the strongest because it is highly effective as long as you accept that it would be directly against the promise of BTC. >I also don't know what you mean by "Other options dont address the weakness in BTC security model." If this is confusing to you I find it rather hard to continue to discuss the problems quantum creates for encryption. Quantum is able to abuse the weakness in the encryption method BTC uses. Other solutions dont address this attack vector. >How is it long gone? I don't understand what you are claiming at all. >I think it would be better if you were specific and not using some analogy that doesn't make sense in this context. ok now I KNOW you are actually just too clueless to follow along in this conversation. I dont know if you just usually troll or pretend to not understand? kinda wild. >That's not what I said. >I specifically asked "So you think quantum will go from impossible to crack a single public key to being able to crack one in 9 minutes instantly? Like one day researchers will say "Yesterday we couldn't crack a public key, but today we can in 9 minutes" You think the technology will develop in this type of time frame?" let me know when you learn to be an honest participant in a discussion and Ill happily teach you why you're wrong agian. until then, have fun being wrong.

TheSleepySuni

I’m trying to expand my crypto setup and looking for a **reliable hot wallet**. I understand that cold wallets are safer in general but maybe there is something you can recommend in this scenario. Ideally I want something: * easy to use / accessible (mobile-friendly) * non-custodial (I control my funds) * and if possible, something that doesn’t fully depend on seed phrases or at least has safer recovery options I understand seed phrases are usually unavoidable, but I’m curious if there are any wallets today that improve on that experience or reduce reliance on them. Right now I’m just exploring options, so I’d like to know: * What hot wallets are you currently using and why? * Any that you consider “safe enough” for daily use? * Or if you still recommend just sticking to the usual (MetaMask / Trust Wallet / etc.), I’m open to that too. My target cryptocurrency to store in these are a mix of BTC, ETH, Jasmy, and other shitcoins.

Yorgoleusz

Just wait for price to go down again and buy back that 400$. Considering price raised recently despite being in bear market you may be able to buy more BTC for same amount of fiat soon

AlgonikHQ

Real question isn't which to sell, it's which one rebuying higher would hurt more. That's the one you keep. My own bias: BTC stays untouched, fixed DCA, anchor position. Tactical moves come out of anything else. ETH has more beta both ways, so timing matters more there. Biggest trap: "3-4 months" in crypto is a full cycle leg. Build the re-entry plan *before* you sell, price levels or scheduled DCA. Most people who sell "temporarily" end up watching the chart cope-posting on Reddit six months later. Not advice, just someone who's made the mistake.

Low-Method3448

Also with the institutional adoption the supply will shrink substantially. Think, if Saylor is eating the supply and we bring back the same leverage and demand as we had in mid 2025 the price would be way higher because there is less BTC to go around.

Low-Method3448

Legendary, I’m 22 and I’m also hella into BTC 60/40 with 40 being stocks

suckyuhhmada

HodlHodl uses a multisig escrow system, so the BTC gets locked up before the gift card is released to you. If you claim the card is empty or invalid, you open a dispute and an arbitrator steps in. That said, gift cards are generally considered higher risk on P2P platforms because they’re non-reversible and hard to verify before the trade completes. Most experienced sellers just avoid them entirely or charge a significant premium to offset the risk.

piggleii

Apart from BTC, a few coins did well, like HYPE, SOL, XRP, BNB.

FriendsMade_MeDoIt

Yeah this comes up a lot in our group chats too, especially when people start thinking long term about BTC. From what I understand, the idea is that even if most people “hodl,” there’s still enough activity over time to generate fees, especially if Bitcoin ends up being used more for large transfers or settlement rather than everyday payments. Some of my friends compare it to like a backbone layer, not something you swipe for coffee. On the fees part, I don’t think base layer BTC is ever gonna be super cheap consistently. People I know usually bring up stuff built on top for that reason, since the main chain staying kinda expensive is what keeps it secure. As for chains, our group is kinda split the same way. Everyone holds some BTC and ETH just because it feels like the safe core, then people branch out into stuff like SOL or newer chains depending on what they’re into. No one fully agrees though, it changes every few months depending on what’s pumping or getting attention.

Russianstein

Hello, I hope you are doing well. I’m reaching out with humility to ask for help during a very difficult time for me and my family. We are currently facing serious financial hardship, and I am doing everything I can to keep a stable roof over our heads and provide for my children. If you are in a position to help, I would be deeply grateful for any Bitcoin (BTC) donation in any amount. Every small contribution makes a meaningful difference for us right now and helps me work toward keeping my children safe and secure. BTC Wallet: 3KKPcAB2eBmgrywDFiV3kyPodJUDERB6pL Thank you for taking the time to read this and for any support you may be able to offer. Even if you cannot donate, sharing this message with others who might be willing to help would mean a lot. With sincere gratitude, Ivan and Family.

qik7

Why not just go put your money in BTC predictive markets? Not saying you are right or wrong but if you think you know it's worth the consideration. Then you could really makes some gains here

umirinbrah29

But they are increasing your BTC exposure per share through the financial tools they have in their arsenal to do so. I don't think yield is a misrepresentation, they are extremely transparent with ongoing exposure to debt, so there is no illusion going on in my eyes. There is a BTC yield, but that comes with either common stock dilution, or debt servicing costs. But we all know this, as long as we believe BTC will rise quicker than the nominal dividend obligations over a long time horizon, and we buy in at a sensible mNAV, we as common stock shareholders will be in a very good position.

Electronic_Fuel9368

Yes, but he does make a good point, i could have 20k worth of BTC when it’s priced now at 78k. Although I don’t, then i’d only have 0.25 of a coin, I bought it at 60k (0.3 of a coin).

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Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1st8tpr/at_their_current_pace_strategy_will_hold_1/ The numbers from Strategy's latest disclosure are worth sitting with properly because they describe something genuinely unprecedented in Bitcoin's history. On April 20, Strategy filed an 8-K confirming it had acquired 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion: its third-largest weekly purchase ever. That brings total holdings to 815,061 BTC. At their current daily acquisition pace of roughly 774 BTC, River Financial projects they'll cross 1,000,000 Bitcoin by December 15 of this year. That's approximately 5% of all bitcoin that will ever exist, held on a single balance sheet. But the more interesting story is *how* they're doing it. Strategy has built a capital structure unlike anything in corporate finance. Their STRC preferred stock, paying an 11.5% annual dividend monthly, has become a machine for extracting institutional capital and routing it directly into BTC. River's data shows that STRC proceeds last week outpaced the net inflows of all US spot Bitcoin ETFs combined by nearly 10 to 1. This mechanism is elegant and slightly dizzying. Yield-hungry institutional investors buy STRC for the 11.5% dividend. That capital goes straight to buying Bitcoin. Bitcoin appreciates. Strategy's balance sheet looks better. More investors buy STRC. More Bitcoin gets bought. The flywheel, when it works, is genuinely self-reinforcing. And with $21 billion in remaining ATM capacity, it has significant runway left. [What the 1 million BTC milestone would actually mean is worth thinking through.](https://news.bitcoin.com/strategy-could-reach-1-million-bitcoin-by-late-2026-river-notes-strc-inflows-dwarf-etf-net-gains/) At current supply, that's roughly 4.76% of the hard cap of 21 million — and when you account for the estimated 3-4 million coins permanently lost, it's closer to 6% of the effectively circulating supply held by a single publicly-traded company in Virginia. Saylor said 2026 would be the last year you could buy Bitcoin under $100K. At the pace he's buying, he might be right for reasons that have nothing to do with macro. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Patient-Jicama9438

I knew a friend who worked at FedEx. Put money every paycheck towards BTC years ago. I didnt believe him no one did. Well hes retired at 32.

BIGZ_998

FIRST OF ALL CONGRATULATIONS 🎊 IF IT’S TRUE SECOND Ignored ALL the noise and keep DCA’ING DAILY AND THIRD THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE ☝️ OF ALL STOP TELLING PEOPLE ABOUT YOUR BTC KEEP YOUR FINANCES TO YOURSELF GOOD LUCK 🫡

ashiieyy07

How much of a BTC u got?

crypto-mood

Well it not much about retail, but I am very bullish on BTC next 2 month

coinluv

I don’t go to Starbucks, make my coffee at home. Stopped getting food delivery and cook. Don’t get my hair and nails done unless it’s a special occasion. Don’t use gas to go anywhere if I can Zoom into the meeting. Add that up and in 5 years I’ve built a nice BTC stack. Wish I had started saving twenty years ago but…I got it now. You don’t need to make a lot of money, just DCA and be consistent.

Micesmoi

Almost a year ago you were saying “get in BTC now or never” now you telling me to wait. I wanna see what you seeing too

BrooklynNeinNein_

This is still assuming that retail would drive BTC price like in 2017. This is not the case anymore, institutional investors don't give a fuck about whatever crypto influencer.

ilfollevolo

Perfect description of BTC

ScholarPlayful3421

I do 40% BTC 40% S&P500 10% International stocks 10% ETH

West-Possession-9974

Don't trade leverages. You're gambling. You said it yourself you based this on a hunch about BTC being down. Most profitable leverage traders have high value inside knowledge. Buy into some actual RWA coins. Dollar cost average in whenever you can and treat that just like that trade treat holding just like you keep pushing that short further keep holding. In the nicest way possible it isn't a trading problem that's a self control problem until you sort that maybe stay away from trading altogether. You've got this.

ScholarPlayful3421

Honestly I forget I have it sometimes…I’ll just be adding up my money from various accounts and I’ll totally forget to include my Coinbase account lol to be fair I’m not DCA rn so once I start doing that I’ll probably remember that I own BTC lol…I’m just so bought in to not selling ever that I’ve completely put it out of my mind

Blockchainauditor

The Bitcoin whitepaper says protecting the consumer (the sender of BTC) is not Bitcoin’s responsibility, as simple escrow methods should serve.

Exciting_Beautiful65

It's a good moment to buy. Even better to buy MSTR. With BTC in 120k in a few months, is a 50% upside (and 75-80% upside with Strategy)

panthera_N

BTC has just broken above the upper trend line, and could rise to resistance at 85k, then retest 76k. At least this is the short-term direction - next week.

middiescoach11

The majority of projects are under their 200 week moving average but BTC is not yet. Fear and greed is almost green. So this is likely the last pump before bottoming out sequence starts. Once the paper oil price reaches closer to its actual price that’s when the elevator drops and new floor will be set more than likely. Then when we finally start going back up End Q3/beginning Q4 is when all these super cycle people will say they were right.

Spicyocto

That’d be devastating if it came into effect. I was considering moving to aus from nz as our tax system for BTC is atrocious. Not if this goes through

Vegetable_Peanut2166

BTC loans would be the hack

Informal-Ad220

I have a fair amount of BTC. But I've never "used" it. I've only bought it.

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Post is by: babyb01 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1st6bln/i_stopped_trying_to_learn_everything_and_did_one/ Felt like I was going insane for a while. The first two years were just chaos (and expensive). I was on stocks, then forex, then crypto. I’d try a new indicator I saw on YouTube, it would work twice, then I’d lose four times and jump to the next 'holy grail' thing. my P&L chart looked like a seizure. I was basically just donating money to the market out of boredom and thinking I was being productive because I was learning. Last month I was about ready to just quit. I was so frustrated. I figured I'd try one last thing. an idea to just go full minimalist. The rules were simple: • One trading pair. • One setup. • For 30 days. No exceptions. I decided to do this with crypto perps since there’s no PDT rule to worry about and the market is always open. I picked BTC/USDT just because the liquidity is there. To avoid burning even more of my real money on another failed experiment, I wanted to run it mostly on a demo account. I looked around for a place to do this and landed on bydfi, mainly because they didn't require a ton of KYC upfront and had a demo account I could use. The last thing I needed was to burn more real money. My setup was dead simple: waiting for a 15-minute support/resistance level to break, and then trading the retest. that’s it. No fancy indicators, no news, nothing else. Honestly, the first week was torture. It was so boring. Sometimes my setup wouldn't appear for a whole day. i had the urge to check other charts, to try something else, to just do something. But I stuck with it. by week three, something clicked. I started to get a real feel for how BTC moved around those specific levels. I wasn't guessing anymore. I was just executing the same action over and over. My results weren't spectacular, but they were consistent for the first time ever. I had a few small wins, a few small losses, and my account wasn't blown up. The biggest change was mental. The stress was just... gone. I stopped trying to predict the whole market and just focused on my tiny little corner of it. its the first time this feels like a real process instead of gambling. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

dularn

"If you told me you owned all of the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn't take it because what would I do with it? I'd have to sell it back to you one way or another. It isn't going to do anything." - Warren Buffett  If you're going to quote the guy wouldn't it make more sense to include his actual thoughts on BTC?

Flaky_Concentrate898

the people that dont understand that, have no idea what you are talking about... they dont even understand where people really make money on BTC, on the volume and volatility... not any long term hold. they are simple people that dont seem to know that NVDA and other much higher performers exist for a casual long term hold play. and this post got deleted lol

DeathFood

My point was about deceptive language not about the overall thesis of MSTR Yield is the product of an investment BTC Yield as Strategy defines it is borrowing money to buy more Bitcoin That’s the only issue I’m speaking on right now

110010010011

It’s the BTC address bc1qhcl4020vf6crl72n8pme09kzh44gvmc0flajn2 Which has received 0.00026188 BTC ($20) so far.

tedusam

Daytrade BTC lmao

Fromthefuture9

I believe this sub is 70%+ populated by ai bots programmed to try and hype up bitcoin. Activity and blocking behavior supports this. Once I realized this, the comments on this sub make a lot more sense. I was in crypto from 2017 to 2025. Saw two “cycles”. I am fully in stocks now. Socially, everyone HATES crypto and thinks of it as a scam. SBF ruined it for everyone. It will take time for that stink to wash off. BTC will pop again in 2027 based on how many buyers anticipate a 4 year cycle returning. But for the next 18-24 months BTC will trade sideways or down as it finds its bottom. Probably retesting previous ath for a while. I’m not wasting the next two years DCAing into bitcoin while its price remains steady. But what do I know? I only have a masters degree and over a decade of trading under my belt. The people commenting on this sub are cultish in their attitude toward btc and flame anything that doesn’t directly imply BTC is the best way to invest your money at this very second. Dead internet theory, it’s mostly bots, operated by whales to manipulate the price, as part of a larger campaign involving influencers and advertisements.

DazzlingNet1516

Haha this feels true. The second I make up my mind I’m convinced the market will do the opposite. First BTC buy and I think I’m already getting the full experience.

RevengeRabbit00

MSTR makes the bet that BTC will on average increase in value far more than the current 11.5% dividend rate. By purchasing MSTR, I’m making that same bet. I’m also pretty certain they will have no problem increasing their cash buffer, since they’ve had no problem quickly raising more than 2 billion while in a bitcoin bear market. You’re assuming they will not continue to increase their cash balance. Being last in line if they fail is the price you pay for the upside. If I didn’t want volatility and risk I would have bought STRC(like a LOT of people are). I’ll take the risk and the upside. So far that’s worked very well for me. If in the future it doesn’t and I was wrong then that’s the fuckin’ way she goes.

AirwolfCS

I’m positive, but not it rain on the parade - I think anything parabolic in the near or medium term is highly unlikely. The major fundamental difference between this market regime and regimes of the past is that we are living in the era of the overwriter Between yieldmax, roundhill, and others there’s an unending supply of calls dumped in the market every week in the etf, and in OTC swaps miners have been selling covered calls against their treasuries consistently. Even GameStop has been selling covered calls against their treasury BTC. All of this means that, at least in BTC, every leg up will run into quick resistance as spot moves towards the covered call strikes, and the dealers and market makers who are long all the calls (who bought them from the ETFs and the miners and the DATs) have a ton of long gamma to hedge, so they’ve got tons and tons of spot to sell into every rally Eventually maybe we’ll have a big push through and the overwriters will get bitten and have their btc called away or will have to buy back their short calls at a big loss if they go way in the money, and after that happens a couple of times it might shift the market dynamic and they’ll be shy about aggressively selling upside calls after that… then and only then can there really be any sort of parabolic move Until then, there’s just so much supply of upside calls that it’s an insurmountable push to go up too fast, every rally will just be a step function that hits resistance and then pauses for awhile before it can go higher (Note this is really just for btc… other coins don’t have this supply of upside calls dumped on the market constantly)

Remarkable-Opening69

Because his average price sucks for having almost a million BTC

happyhummus007

That's currently 0.0278205 BTC

XXsforEyes

Increasingly, there are BTC-knowledgeable business positioning for the very long-term. I am hopeful that they are plentiful and competitive enough over the next couple decades. 🤞

RevengeRabbit00

When I bought MSTR I had .25 btc in “btc per share” it is now at .5 btc. What would you call that aside from BTC yield? I wouldn’t get too hung up on semantics. Is he supposed to invent new words just because it relates to Bitcoin?

OriginalOk2939

Do you think ETH, besides BTC, is worth buying in large quantities right now?

snksleepy

BTC is on a bull trend on the daily charts. So $90k BTC is inevitable.

prw361

Pretty even right now… Total BTC Value: ~$63.9 Billion (815,061 BTC × $78,398) MSTR Market Cap: ~$63 Billion

Dramatic_Wear_1658

Are you coked out or something? To make such an insane declarative statement after BTC is still in the process of trying to break out of a 2 month consolidation structure, is nothing short of a drugged out delusion. At most we can call this a correction of the overall downtrend. Now it def is possible that the cycle is broken due to the changing landscape of this maturing asset. But also this thing could easily just come up to fill the CME gap or hit a key resistance before continuing down. Maybe we’ve hit the bottom. Maybe we get one last push down to a slightly lower low like 50k. Maybe we yet still get another huge dump to 35-40k, consolidate, and we’re here all over again in 6-12 months debating whether or not the bottom is in. Point is, similar to how we couldn’t confirm the Oct 25’ Top till the Feb 26’ break of the 74k support, it will take many months after the bottom rolls in before we can finally declare the bottom. At the very minimum we will need: 1. Higher Highs 2. Higher Lows 3. Resistances Flipping to Support 4. 200 Day MA Broken & Backtested as Support 5. 98k Broken & Backtested as Support Once all of these are fulfilled then you can declare a bottom. Until then, you are still in a downtrend my good sir.

HSuke

Even in a bullish case where Bitcoin exceed's gold's market cap, it's very unlikely that the block subsidy will stay above average Tx fees by 2060. **Here's the math behind it**: There are 10 halvings until 2060. That's a 99.90% drop, so BTC needs to rise 1000x to offset that. BTC currently has a $1.5T market cap. It's not going to rise 1000x to $1500T because the entire mcap of all assets in the world is about $500T. The mcap of the world's publicly traded stocks is about $120 trillion. Tx fees are currently 1% of the block subsidy. Realistically in a bull case, BTC will reach the market cap of gold in 30 years, and that's a 10x increase. At a 10x increase with 10 halvings, the block subsidy will be equal to the amount of Tx fees.

Cptn_BenjaminWillard

A question ... is their stock currently trading at a premium or a discount to actual BTC, based upon underlying asset value?

TheBestintheWest11

yea something seems off with his purchases of BTC. Then again what do I know.

decentralised_cash

Yes, it's a good idea. As you start buying, also look up self-custody. You really *shouldn't* leave your coins on an exchange (or they're not **your** coins). Make yourself a wallet on BlueWallet (for iOS/Android) to practice withdrawing a little BTC there and sending it around. For larger amounts, you should eventually consider using a [hardware wallet](https://trezor.io) for storage.

DeathFood

They also call it “BTC Yield” when the amount of Bitcoin increases because they’ve sold common shares or issued new preferred shares. Saylor loves to misuse standard financial terms in order to make his product seem less scammy A lot of verbal gymnastics to redefine using other people’s money to buy a risk asset, an activity as old as investing itself

defeater33

No leverage. Just stay with ETH and BTC 90% or greater of crypto investments. Use monthly candle chart to buy at lows and sell on the highs for longterm. Don't get greedy. Big swings mean a lot money(50%-100%) while being safe.

SpontaneousDream

LOL I can't belive people still believe this utter bullshit. None of what you said matters when virtually zero value accrues to the ETH token. There are no spot buybacks of ETH using protocl revenue (which is peanuts anyways). Burns are easily offset by new issuance. ETH/BTC has been down for almost a decade...

LuckyWinds

> anywhere from 10x to 1000X cheaper than to run a traditional Supercomputer AI question/computation So how much to crack a single bitcoin public key? > This isnt just a "random" single person tho, he is considered by many a "leader" in the space. No he isn't. I barely know who he is and I've been following this space closely for over a decade. > Its the strongest option though. Again Other options dont address the weakness in BTC security model. I don't know why you think it's the strongest option. I also don't know what you mean by "Other options dont address the weakness in BTC security model." > The people deciding arent the holders. to make an analogy, The people deciding on what upgrades get implemented into lets say Ebay, arent the users, they're the shareholders of Ebay stock. The needs and interests of the Ebay users are vastly different than Ebay stock holders. That's whats happening and been happening here with BTC and its code. It was supposed to be 1 CPU = 1 Vote. those days are long gone now. How is it long gone? I don't understand what you are claiming at all. I think it would be better if you were specific and not using some analogy that doesn't make sense in this context. > It will indeed go from 1 day we couldnt crack it, to one day we can crack it. That's not what I said. I specifically asked "So you think quantum will go from impossible to crack a single public key to being able to crack one in 9 minutes instantly? Like one day researchers will say "Yesterday we couldn't crack a public key, but today we can in 9 minutes" You think the technology will develop in this type of time frame?"

Crystal_Smitha

i’m still cautious tho. i keep most of my BTC in gem wallet and only test these BTCFi ideas with small amounts. if something breaks i don’t want it touching my core stack

RealCryptoCrank

Remember. We do not have quarterly reports for crypto like stocks. So when you “invest” the determining factor for the product is …does it still have devs working? Gaining partnerships? Being used in real world use cases? These are a must for me to even think about investing. My portfolio for institutional bullrun/institutional bear market is BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, TRX, HYPE.

PaulitaN_Price

yeah this feels different from the old “wrap your BTC and pray” model. if the coins actually stay on Bitcoin and you’re just using them as locked security, that’s a big improvement

Revolutionary-Cup78

Yea, the best path forward for BTC would be to "burn" all assets that don't migrate to a quantum secure wallet. Some people will loose legitimate assets, but it is a needed sacrifice to prevent a flood of supply recovered from lost wallets

RetiredAvocado

Even if BTC market cap got big enough (big if), someone would have to want to buy that bitcoin and pay for it. Who has $39 trillion dollars and wants to buy bitcoin with it from USG? Perhaps the gov could sell some of it overtime but not in amounts anywhere near national debt levels.

Top-Care-8946

Volatility is like high-speed roller coaster. BTC can dive deep as -10-20% but can "skyrocket" upwards the same or more. Currently my balance was floating between 15% and I am still on the small profit (because assets in value is less than €80- I just started to collect as beginner).

HomelessInASuit

I know all of that. I’ve watched Justin hose billions off idiots. Your ill gotten gains mean nothing to me. I’ve been in BTC for a long time. I’ve seen people do horrific things in this space, including the President. Justin Sun belongs in a prison with CZ and all of them. If you think this space is about money you’ve lost the plot long ago. Tron will not be the one and neither will BCash, Binance, MemeCoin, WLF, or the other basket of scams that have infested this space. Tron is just another Egg in the rotten basket. Soon it will rot away too. Enjoy the %20 offerings let me know how that went for BITCONNECT. 😭😭😭😭