BTC

AutoModerator

Post is by: ganxiaozhe and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: https://cam.xiaozhe.dev/ This is my first time posting on Reddit, written by myself rather than an LLM. My English is not very good, so the content has been translated. Please excuse any awkward wording. I got into on-chain quantitative trading at the end of 2024, mainly on Solana, and was able to stay profitable for a while. But in the past few months, on-chain liquidity has become relatively weaker, while altcoins in the secondary market seem to be starting another wave, such as RAVE. So I tried to build a secondary-market anomaly monitoring system, hoping to catch some of these assets at an early stage. The tech stack is: * Development: Bun / TypeScript * Signal source: OKX REST + WebSocket * Databases: Redis and PostgreSQL The logic is similar to what I used in on-chain trading: if a token’s trading volume increases significantly within a certain period of time, it may be starting a one-sided move. In the secondary market, I currently use the following as trigger conditions: * 15m price movement * 15m volume expansion compared with recent averages * short-window ticker changes, as an early signal * spread and liquidity filters For example: the current 15m price movement must be at least 3.5%, and the current 15m trading volume must be at least 2.5x the average of the previous 20 candles. Although this is a very simple anomaly detection rule, I have always believed that simplicity is often the right direction. If something becomes too complicated, then either it is wrong, or the problem itself has been confused. After testing it for a while, I found a few problems: Signals before the US stock market opens are usually of lower quality. Sometimes they can even be interpreted as reverse signals. The current system mainly monitors 15m periods, so it usually only triggers when volume has already expanded. In some cases, however, larger players may accumulate quietly first, then attract retail traders during the high-volume move and sell into them. I do not yet have a good way to identify this. I am also still thinking about a few questions: * Should I add a broader market sentiment filter, such as short-term trends in BTC / ETH / TOTAL3? * Should different thresholds be used for tokens with different market caps and liquidity levels? * Should I add accumulation detection, instead of only volume spike detection? * Is this system worth open-sourcing? Any feedback on the detection logic, system architecture, UI presentation, or market structure would be very welcome. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

JSTN_FPV

it went down because i sold my 0.00000024365 BTC

darokk

Exactly like he did now. Desensitize the market over time. This was the first instance of him selling (in years) so the reaction is extreme. In a year or so when it's the 15th sale and he is still is business there won't be a reaction. I assume he will announce a buy greater than 32 BTC in the coming days as well.

Mooks79

It’s not weird at all, this is a general crypto market fall due to Saylor selling some BTC and spooking the market.

colemusic1

I mean it tends to kinda work in a hybrid it seems. Some days BTC for example seems to work with macro loosening and NASDAQ/SPX going up, other days it just completely ignores it. The whole institutionalisation of IBIT has changed everything to be honest, and the $3B+ outflows we’ve seen in stock markets out of BTC is pretty significant tbh. But yeah you’re right it is somewhat decoupled in general, but lately it’s literally seemingly completely decoupled. Semi’s and other tech stocks are ripping while BTC is plummeting. I’m guessing a huge amount of rotation is happening there

AlberGro

7 tps bro. BTC is never going to replace fiat.

quintavious_danilo

Agreed, not sure why everyone is so convinced you can’t make money with BTC anymore. Does it have rapid surges like before? Maybe not that violently like it did but you can easily double or even triple your money if you buy … well now. 🤷🏻‍♂️

IgotnoideawhatIsay

Same. I sold most of my BTC to buy stocks at the start of 2025. I’m up 40% with stocks and down 35% with btc

CompetitiveDrawing89

What BTC is good for? What does it bring to society other than electricity bills for running scripts to count this BS? 16 years and still just good for scammers and drug dealers

Legitimate_Cry_5194

Bottom signal (but not yet). Everyone is wishing for lower prices to buy. The market will bottom when we hit prices where people will hesitate buying not because they hope for even lower prices, but because they'll start to second guess if BTC is ever going to recover (thus the bottom signal "is there any hope").

Zestyclose-Power-132

This is exactly what i think, but now litterally it feels like SPY is more of an actual storage for value rather than BTC. I am just sad?

Zestyclose-Power-132

This is what i predict also, maybe a quick red candle down to 40k at lowest and then btc as usual. But it seems it looses momentum of highs more than it looses on lows. With clarity act i feel some alts will pump and profit will flow to BTC from alts, also possibility of USA start purchasing BTC is on the table.

CompetitiveDrawing89

some people say it will go to 1M others says it will go to zero, I think BTC will be here in ten years still looking for any meaningful purpose

namesaretakenwtf

same with me and for countless others i'm sure. I was part of a geeky hardware forum in the early 2010's, posted there all the time. At some point a bitcoin mining sub forum appeared on it. I barely even bothered to look at it and when i did it just didn't make sense to me/seemed like a waste of time and effort. I was running things like SETI all night while I slept, instead of mining Bitcoin. Oh well! In many ways, i think that's an easier pill to swallow than that of those who maybe had 100's of BTC back in the day but sold for a hundred dollars or whatever.

Zestyclose-Power-132

What i discuss is HODL / never sell mentality didn't paid off for the last 5 years, if you do buy at 15k and sell at 125k then bravo, but it just makes you a good trader and doesn't make BTC a good long term investment after all. Even going as low as 15k over 1 year period just shows the problem for long term holders.

ooo-InstaGamer

They did. These are screenshots of my drawing predictions on the chart. And my prediction of BTC yesterday went almost exactly by the drawn arrows, including that big drop (not to 65, but to 67k, the previous one). And I was sending those to AIs for them to give me some feedback and analysis of what the chart tells. A lot of yapping, but.

Tasty-Action-5295

Bitcoin as an inflation hedge which is the crux of this thread is a mind boggling thesis for investing in BTC.

FlyKnown4829

Pretty much. People can sell now at 0.21$ wait for it to go back to 0.50$ or even 1$. I am more concerned about the ADA/BTC conversion rate as I am planning to shift everything to bitcoin at some point.

DrGarbinsky

This is the end of the beginning. Crypto was always going to have to eventually be traded on actual utility. The hype train is out of steam, event for BTC. And let’s face it BTC doesn’t have any utility. So down she goes

pattywhaxk

1. Bitcoins promise is zero monetary inflation. That doesn’t mean it will maintain its value against any currency, equity or commodity in the short run. 2. Bitcoiners generally aren’t concerned with short term price action. They’re either in it for the tech, concepts and ideals that underpin the system or for the long term investment opportunity, usually a combination of both. I’m not saying you aren’t one, but I think it’s easy to get caught up in the dollar numbers and forget about everything else that is going on. 3. We are in the bear market. We were at ATH less than 9 months ago. This happens every 4 years, and we are exactly where we are supposed to be. A new ATH is made after the halving, and then around the 2 year mark BTC crabs around the previous cycle ATH, which is exactly where we are at. 3a. To further prove my point about the cycle, in every 2nd year post halving, SPY outperforms BTC. 2014, 2018 and 2022. I suspect that 2026 could be the same. In this cycle the timeline was pushed up due to macro factors like the ETF approvals, but the cycle has maintained its general structure.

AnonThrowaway998877

Which is really baffling because he had to know this would be the reaction. Why invest billions upon billions at higher prices and then do this? Why not sell months ago, trigger this fear, then deploy your billions? I admit I haven't been keeping up on all of MSTR shenanigans, so maybe I'm missing something. Are they allowed to have a massively leveraged short on BTC?

viberama977

Maybe altcoins can finally decouple from BTC and do their own thing? I'm not holding my breath though.

baIIern

>I wonder if this is just the calm before the storm in the next cycle? Nobody can tell, but I've seen posts like yours during the last bears as well. People who are aboard for many years but lost trust during the FTX crisis. After that, BTC went up 8x (ish) again

theflyingtuga

Watch BTC change hands. Same story as always.

adler1959

Yes but when „AI is fading out“ the market will crash so brutally that no investment will be safe and BTC will drop 50%+ as well

Shot-Structure-1274

Well, if the stock markets start to enter a bear market after a super massive run up and BTC is already at 65k, then it's possible for a real massive decline from here as ALL risk-on investments are in a bear market. If SPY drops -35% from here, we could see BTC drop -70% from here and trade at 20-25k. Of course, stocks could drop even worse and then BTC could as well. Either way, stocks and BTC are headed lower because BTC drop first and then stocks.

Frosty-Cone

If I was in his shoes, knowing what we know now, I’d sell a little, watch all the red candles then buy up the BTC at a discount. It’s what Musk and others did but consistently for years, while for better or worse this dude has mostly remained true to his belief in Bitcoin *so far.

Lower-Start8059

BTC and NFTs will go the same way. Unique technology securing asset transfer and ownership. Until a superior alternative exists. Will the price soar to the moon? perhaps not. Maybe institutional adoption stabilizes until secure enough to fully replace traditional boring finance. as the new reliable boring predictable massively adopted option. Instagram addict lambo fanatics may need to seek volatile gambling opportunity elsewhere.

Aurorion

I would. Theoretically if it ever happens, that would make it worthless - but I still wouldn't mind throwing away 210K for all the BTC in the world.

heyheyshinyCRH

ETH imo, sol raged in popularity for awhile because of all the memecoin pump and dumps but I think people are over that shit now. I'm going in on ETH over BTC because it just has more potential in every facet of the space but especially in terms of price action. I think ETH can 5x well before BTC can and I'm looking to capitalize on that.

EcstaticCell1511

Total cost of loan is only 10k if I take 3 years to pay it off. Its not bad at all. Considering I was able to buy a full BTC with the loan. This never sell and store in cold storage reminds me of the classic story "the miser and his gold."

SkoHens

BTC..

shitcoin_swampman

You could do this, but IDK the interest rates on these loans are \~10%. If I were you id just allocate the money you would otherwise be paying into interest on the loan each month into a DCA into BTC. That way if BTC keeps going down you can end up with even more coins and lower stress overall without a liquidation price. You can keep your own coins this way too and avoid all counterparty risk. But its your call in the end.

JeremyLinForever

Dog water post. MSTR buys thousands of BTC at a time and sold 32 bitcoins out of their close to 900,000 BTC stash. I’m astonished that people don’t see how much of a non-issue it is.

shitcoin_swampman

Not sure if this is troll post? Assets are going to go up and down, just hodl and eventually you can rub their nose in it when BTC outperforms their assets.

MonsutaReipu

Because he's not supposed to sell into liquidity. There are tons of ways for him to profit off of having a mountain of BTC that doesn't involve just selling it once they're in profit.

Accomplished-Eye5567

The major thing I don’t understand is why they don’t leverage all the media attention to build revenue generating products. Seems like a no brainer to me — they’ve got attention and marketing. That’s the hard part. They could literally create real products and services and drive cash flow to buy more BTC and strengthen the model

EmbarrassedPrompt697

A bunch of dummies just selling their BTC so that Michael Saylor can scoop it up on the cheap with STRC. Who the fuck is selling right now?!

stormaxis26

ADA is a tough one and honestly a lot of long term holders across multiple alts are feeling exactly this right now one thing this kind of experience changed for me is how i think about holding. just sitting on a position hoping for appreciation while it bleeds is the worst of both worlds. at minimum if you're going to hold crypto long term it should be earning yield while you wait shifted a lot of my holdings to BTC and ETH on Nexo specifically so they're at least generating passive income while i hold. not a fix for a bad entry on a bad asset but it changes the math on any long term position you're actually confident in.

AfterC

Issue new shares to MSTR to pay STRC dividends Issue new shares of STRC to buy assets for MSTR Oops, I need more cash! Sell assets from MSTR to pay dividends for STRC. *** This is the genius plan from little Kermit Saylor. In a perfectly executed, ideal environment, the best MSTR can now do is give you a return that tracks BTC. In a realistic environment, management missteps will cost you more. This is why MSTR is 70% off their high and BTC is only 46% off the high.

PMmeuroneweirdtrick

First mistake is calling it an investment. It's all speculative gambling BTC included.

ChrisAWR

Don’t beat yourself up. When you do you develop a mindset to discount your ability to see future opportunities. It is so easy to say “with hindsight I was such a fool” but there is a universe out there where BTC didn’t do anything and you are grateful you didn’t buy. The point being is you can’t rewrite the past. Keep learning, stay open minded, and identify future opportunities. Plus BTC is a vehicle for generating perpetual wealth. You will be able take advantage of that if you don’t beat yourself up on past decisions.

Substantial-Pin9157

I will absolutely not buy BTC above 70,000 during a bear market.

Dip_the_Dog

>but also did a proper analysis and he knew BTC was heading to the 60K zone so he sold above that price. This is like me predicting that my car is about to crash and then deliberately driving it off the road.

Veeg-Tard

According to r/bitcoin: BTC is down? BUY BTC is up? BUY BTC isn't doing anything? BUY

_RonPaulWasRight_

I think you're just using buzzwords here. For instance what does this mean: "continuously leverages BTC with their stock products and stock dilutions it builds up pressure on BTC with possible short position profits over a mass selloff of its reserves" I've read through that like, 5 times and can't figure out what you're saying. I don't think you even know what you wrote.

Informal-Level-7924

That's it. You own 0.1 BTC, I own 4.3 BTC. I am not happy seeing tens of thousands if not at this point hundreds of thousand vanish in my account. If i also owned 0.1 BTC I would be happy, cuz I barely own it at that point.

jkl2035

I don’t know when Peter was active last time and I don’t care - Look at BTC… Missing marketing efforts - fair point you are making, wish they would do more on that, but that‘s giving me more evidence that the project is more than a scam/pump&dump. The foundation could easily pump the coin with small efforts but they are looking for a more stable development imho. You mentioned again scam w/o providing any details - I hear a lot of Frustration out of that, feel sorry whatever the reason is

Affectionate_Use_179

That's a valid concern. Nothing is risk-free, including stablecoins. That's why I don't plan on sitting in them forever. They're just a temporary parking spot while I wait for my buy targets. I also spread the risk by not keeping all my money in one stablecoin. To me, the risk of a major stablecoin losing its peg for a few months is lower than the risk of riding a 50-70% BTC drawdown if my thesis is correct. If BTC hits my targets, I'm back in. The stablecoins are a tool, not the destination.

DrSpeckles

AI is only just starting. It actually does stuff, the complete opposite of BTC that does nothing. If you’ve got one asset that is going up fast for good reason, and another that has no reasons, there is now world where it pivots back to BTC.

CIVIoney69

I hope he crashes BTC so I have another shot to finally sack up and buy the bottom.

circadiggmigration

Bro, this is all bullshit. BTC has no fundamentals. It's fake internet money people paint with bullshit that's as reliable as a fortune cookie. It has no assets. It generates no revenue, beyond the ability to convince someone else to buy it. "Fiat currency blah blah". The US is the most powerful economy in the world with the most powerful military with a highly educated population and 1st world infrastructure. There is no "cycle". It's all bullshit and everyone's going to try to convince you not to sell to save their own ass. Save whatever money you can from this fake internet money.

Character-Issue1788

$114.5B BTC OI with -0.2% funding on 2026-06-03 is the tell for me here. BTC slipping while AI equities keep catching a bid doesn’t really read like clean risk-on; it reads more like crypto perps are heavy/defensive while the equity bid is narrower and AI-specific. I’d watch whether BTC OI keeps rising while funding stays flat/negative as spot drifts. That usually suggests leverage building into a weak tape, not confident rotation back into crypto. Caveat: OI/funding can whipsaw fast, so I wouldn’t treat it as a macro signal without volume/ETF flow/rates context too.

RaccoonStreet351

Soon you'll be able to buy a pizza with 17000 BTC again

BakedGoods

i'm not sure this info is meaningful anymore, right? i mean, if I buy $100K of btc via an ETF ticker, and hold for 10 years, me 'holding' won't show up in a chart like this because while 'I' held, the ETF is buying and selling BTC constantly, so that $100K i gave them for BTC probably flips around thousands of times appearing as if it wasn't held for 10 years.

circadiggmigration

Most people are in the market. That's why BTC is cratering. That and Saylor.

JacoboAriel

Saylor sold almost nothing just to show the investors his flexibility but also did a proper analysis and he knew BTC was heading to the 60K zone so he sold above that price. Either way it was gonna happen

jb_in_jpn

As with the current stock market, people are finally becoming aware this is all to become a rug pull. The stock market at least drives capital growth, albeit often not as efficiently as it could. Crypto? Nothing more now than a Ponzi scheme. And yes, that includes BTC - happy I'm out, sold near the top.

BitcoinBoombox

Sold a whopping 32 out of 843,706 BTC.

VendettaKarma

Keep an eye on tether they sold some bitcoin which is odd. If they depeg this whole market will collapse and you’ll see BTC at levels most us haven’t seen

P4LT4

Yes. It depends on their accounting system. FIFO, LIFO or PPP. I think.. unless BTC is considered a "position" (with PnL) and that could change some things in the accounting system. But I'm not expert

dj_destroyer

Hypothetically, what is the process if you purchased BTC plus a ton of other alt coins over a decade ago -- making money, losing money, no idea what your cost basis is, no idea how much money you put in or took out, and the brokerages/exchanges no longer exist. Secondly, does it make more sense to buy BTC ETF at all-time lows in your Roth IRA to keep contribution room high?

kshucker

Ya’ll never been here when BTC was below $1,000 and it shows.

Available_Win5204

What I do appreciate about the Amazon analogy in this case is the argument that the vast majority of investors base the value and success of the asset on its price. That is happening with ETH. Whether or not the underlying infrastructure of the ecosystem and the token themselves is "worth" more is a separate issue, but it is certainly worth noting that it isn't really being evaluated for more than its historic price performance. A very clear example of this is the fact that ETH follows BTC very closely. Why? This would be like Walmart's stock falling when Google has a rough quarter. It's because the majority of "traders" are simply lumping the assets together without differentiating them, where a more nuanced trader would recognize that there is very little in common between Walmart and Google. If you believe in ETH, it's a pretty exciting time to be buying.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Low_Carpet9764 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1tvapuw/can_mods_please_give_me_crab_user_flair/ I understand this is not the way to go about this so apologize to anyone scrolling for info and seeing this lol. I have been unable to send message to you guys directly due to a reoccurring error and have not been plankton for years. I currently have 1.05 BTC and am acquiring more as bear progresses, if I need to provide screenshot as proof please feel free to direct message me. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

JuxtaposeLife

Define Spent as you'd like. I'm just providing data... I have minute by minute BTC price back to 2012 (any UTXOs appearing prior I use a linear estimate that is actually pretty nonsense since everything is between $0 and like $2.70 so essentially the same thing) I also have every single UTXO in Bitcoins history in a 4TB relational Database I built. I'm calculating the change in price of the value of BTC from its last movement for all coins moved in the last 12 hours (about 70 blocks). I run modeling as well on PEV based on Glass nodes research papers (Not in this chart, this one is raw movement unfiltered) Where I exclude coins going between wallets that are linked in the history as well as other signs industry agrees signal that coins were just moved from one owner to themselves. This is probability when dealing with millions of transactions, so to suggest it's not relevant is deceitful, or ignorance at best. The signal is the volume. There is a clear correlation of activity from certain cohorts at certain points (bottoms and tops) short term and long term. Its all just statistics and usually this kind of analytics is blocked from the public by institutions, but with Bitcoin (and some knowledge of these structures) I just built it from raw node data on my system. I share so others can learn. If you have an opinion about statistics, and analytics. That's ok to share. But you might want to actually verify it yourself...

stoneman9284

Fine with me, let BTC drop so I can buy more

Gmcgator

I bet some BTC OG has a limit order to buy all $21m of it if it hits a dollar

powerguy134

Obviously knowing what you know now that’s a no brainer. Problem is Saylor thinks BTC will hit 10 million so selling 90% at 100k was selling too cheap!

happyluckystar

Simple money rotation. BTC not putting out. AI stocks are making gains.

jgarcya

I've never sold BTC... My first cycle average 2019-22 is 11k. My second cycle average 2023-26...is 40k.. Only fools buy the top The cycle was discovered in 2018...and has been true to it since it's discovery. Know the four year cycle ... Or be bitter like OP.

MelangeBot

>Eventually MSTR goes under and bitcoin bottoms around Oct/Nov like previous cycles and we moon in 2028? That implies MSTR is done selling 800K BTC in just a handfull of months but in reality it will be a slow sell over 2 to 3 years. As of the moment Saylor sold those 32 BTC the market is over for a good 5 years. Short BTC, close the short every 6 months and open a bigger one but the trick will be to do it on an exchange that does not go bankrupt. Plus this is all just MSTR going bankrupt, and we ain't even talking about all the side effects of them dragging the price of Bitcoin down.

ArtichokeOwn6685

BTC and the entire crypto world will collapse by the hand of this company.

PrestigiousDrag7674

people are moving from BTC to AI... get with the program.

Good_Roll

Meh, we're pretty close. BTC doesn't ever sit below the actual price to mine for very long. Only during halvings has this rule been broken in the past. It could happen for the first time now, but I doubt it.

colemusic1

Sorry dude, AI boom is not going anywhere. Have you noticed while BTC, ETH and other majors lately, that AI-narrative tokens had been ripping prior to this huge flush today? RENDER, NEAR, AKT, TAO, FET. There’s a good reason. Semiconductors. They’re in a literal insane expansion right now and edge AI in particular is a long term extremely demanded category within it. I know some might think this is just a short term narrative phase of AI, and while it typically goes in cycles? I don’t see that happening anytime soon. There’s an absolutely enormous supply shock which is why tech stocks are going parabolic. NVDA is officially the biggest company in the world. It IS a semiconductor stock/company, with computing in AI. It’s the biggest weighting in S&P 500, NASDAQ, BGBL, Vanguard (VGS), SMH… basically almost everything. It’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

Local_Math_5512

Let's use the 11.5% Dividend. If MSTR owes $100 Million in dividends to STRC shareholders then that means that MSTR successfully sold $8.7 Billion worth of STRC preferred shares. That $8.7 Billion would also appear on the balance sheet. MSTR will use that $8.7 Billion to buy BTC (though some may be held as cash for efficient use of the Balance Sheet). MSTR currently has $57 Billion of BTC or $65.7 Billion if you add the hypothetical $8.7 Billion raised. I'm okay with this risk.

Childhood-Icy

crypto is done, there's no way around it. people have moved away to other assets, AI is the big thing now. It had its run, and regrettably i was part of it when it was moving down. Should have put all my money in Bitcoin intead of altcoins. 5xed my BTC in 2024, cashed out, but put back 70% of it back into altcoins, hoping it would retire me. Two years after, here I am either at a losing position or just breaking-even. I will take it as a painful experience.

PMmeuroneweirdtrick

BTC sub going to be full of roundtripping bagholders.

Dull-Assumption-964

Most people don't see the meaning of these moves from old wallets to new ones. My thoughts may not carry weight, but they're moving to adjust the floor to get the market to a downside, allowing them to buy at a lower cost. The market will jump back above 72k by the end of the week, and those who dumped will feel the hurt. Now, this is my opinion: there are too many BTC unmined for BTC to lose. Think about it: even at its low today, name me any other currency that yields better than BTC. But don't just look at where you bought it; look at its start in 2009, then think about what I'm saying.

Local_Math_5512

Much like a REIT can issue preferred equity to buy more real estate. MSTR can buy more BTC by issuing preferred shares. Investors in Realty Income ( O ), for example, get a broader exposure to a larger portfolio of Real Estate overtime as Realty Income uses its preferred (O.PRF) to raise capital for buying more Real Estate. Share holder equity in Real Estate, therefore, goes up with time. Similarly, Shareholders of MSTR can accrue more BTC per share over time as MSTR raises capital through STRC to acquire more BTC. That's the value proposition of MSTR - It's that an institution has more tools for raising capital acquiring more BTC than an individual investor does alone.

Saffuran

The last crash had a few factors that pushed it over the edge, it is not unexplained. \- Trump memecoin rugpolling the most gullible retail traders in the sector 3 times (TRUMP, MELANIA, WLFI) sucked liquidity out of the market \- AI stocks pulling in more retail investors as a more immediate investment vehicle \- Weakness in cyclical investing (Blue Owl, Blackstone, Blackrock, others), creating uncertainty around some risk-on assets that feed off of margin \- Bank of Japan has been raising rates, which is cutting off the free money spigot from the Yen Carry Trade The rest of the "crash" (bear market) is just following BTC's established 4-year cycle trends. None of this is out of the ordinary.

things_U_choose_2_b

You sound quite angry & emotional, which suggests you're literally invested. If you've 'lost' a lot of money with this large dip then I sympathise with you. But you should've understood by now that *any* crypto is deeply volatile. Even the almighty BTC. Anyway, you've not lost anything until you sell it. BTC grows in clear, obvious cycles. There will be many more cycles like this one, just hodl it until it goes back up again. When your gran or barber is going "so, what do you think about this btc stuff?" is when you get ready to sell. Good luck to everyone who tries to time the dip!

JeremyLinForever

I can’t wait until BTC has another face melting rip and people like you will wish you bought more BTC :) good luck and hodl on!

Saffuran

Things don't move up or down in a straight line - crypto and blockchains are still young as a market sector and investable asset - you watch the AVERAGES over time to smooth out the volatility, not the current price today vs an arbitrary day in the past. BTC can and probably will continue to fall into the low 50k range or even the mid 40k range this cycle and its averages (20-week SMA and 21-week EMA) are still very much up. At the end of 2021 both of Bitcoin's SMA/EMA averages were around 53k; today, those averages are at 73k, and the peak of this last cycle was at 113k. Any young sector is going to be volatile as it grows; that is basic economics.

AfterC

> The market cap of MSTR trades with BTC because they are BTC treasury company. This is my point. They do nothing but hold Bitcoin and create unsystematic risk. There is no point in an investor taking a stake in their company. In a perfectly executed, ideal environment, the *best* MSTR can now do is give you a return that tracks BTC. In a realistic environment, management missteps will cost you more. This is entry level MBA classwork. This is why MSTR is 70% off their high and BTC is only 46% off the high.

Dull-Assumption-964

Most people don't see the meaning of these moves from old wallets to new ones. My thoughts may not carry weight, but they're moving to adjust the floor to get the market to a downside, allowing them to buy at a lower cost. The market will jump back above 72k by the end of the week, and those who dumped will feel the hurt. Now, this is my opinion: there are too many BTC unmined for BTC to lose. Think about it: even at its low today, name me any other currency that yields better than BTC. But don't just look at where you bought in; look at its start in 2009, then think about what I'm saying.

devCheckingIn

The various treasury companies buying BTC propped the price up in 2025. If that whole model evaporates, forget it.

Gimbous

Just buy BTC

DrEtatstician

Imagine investing in simple S&P index or qqq , you can buy 2.5 times more BTC and who knows in next 5 years it may continue to trade around 50-70k and opportunity cost is a much bigger problem than overall returns

AfterC

They remove none of the volatility. If STRC pays $100M in dividends next month (I'm making up the number), the firm is now worth $100M less. The firm has $100M less cash, and it's book value drops by that amount. This economic reality occurs whether or not Bitcoin is up or down. If bitcoin is down, the impact of paying $100M to shareholders is more punishing, because $100M is now a larger proportion of the value of your firm. STRC isn't paying 11.5% because Strategy is just so generous. They're doing it because they need to provide an equity risk premium. An investor could, in every respect, outperform a STRC investment if they bought BTC with any loan less than 11.5%. It's mental accounting to think the dividend is doing anything.

Ill_Mousse_4240

If Bitcoin crashes because Saylor sold 32 BTC it deserves to go all the way down. Like someone pawning off their gold watch and the whole gold market crashes! I’m not a gold bug, I’m just pointing out this absurdity

dj_destroyer

Not the first time BTC has fell while the stock market was booming. Probably won't be the last. Nothing to see here.

Turbulent-Land-5664

You're so young and if you understood the trajectory in your BTC journey, you would have known this is longer term thinking, and this volatility is to be expected. In my early days I saw my ivestment fall to 1/3 and bought more. I've also seen almost 10X at the top - still at numbers that first excited me when I saw them the first time. But also now about half of my ATH portfolio numbers. The thing is - I still have the same amount of BTC, the dollar value at this point in time is just a distraction. Stay focused and believe. Youve neither gained or lost till you sell an investment. Im a lot older and want to exit in the next ATH but dont want to sell now. I will wait - 2032 is my number.

Local_Math_5512

The market cap of MSTR trades with BTC because they are BTC treasury company. MSTR sold it's BTC in May. BTC's market cap has dropped by roughly $300 Billion since May. Please explain how MSTR's $2.3 Million dollar sale amounted to a $300 Billion dollar loss in BTC? I have a cousin that's dumb too. I'm sorry bro. That's tough.

Original-Read-6475

F&G is a pretty useless indicator. F&G was at 9 in februari when BTC was at 66k. Now the same price it's at 29.

zachmoe

fr, I had 32 BTC, and selling it didn't so shit.

Salty-Ad6128

I blame perpetuals But still believe BTC to 100k

No_Cat_8269

I think it's currently cheaper to buy BTC with what you spend on electricity But tell me what country you're from.

stheodore1974

Patience is a virtue with BTC, and long term holds are generally celebrated and rewarded as long as your time horizon is long enough