BTC

Pugluvmeme

If that happens, my BTC will be worth $260... LFG

Minute-Lake-1819

There is literally data from companies like Bitpay, CoinGate, bitrefill and others that consistently show LTC, BTC and usdt as the most used options.

Frog-bitcoiner

Congrats! Imagine having 10 BTC on a Coldcard and now having 0 BTC and 0 house 

quintavious_danilo

I feel safer in BTC than in BRK.B

GettingFasterDude

Fact check me on this, but I think there's no limit on BTC selling, only on-chain withdrawals to your own wallet. That makes sense since on chain transactions are irreversible. But if you need money to spend, you can convert as much as you want to cash, with no limit. Still have to wait a day or two for the traditional banking system to clear it. But if you have an emergency and need cash (but don't need to transfer bitcoin itself) there's no limit.

Frog-bitcoiner

I wish I get to 10 BTC one day 

Massive-Frosting-722

The “cycles” don’t mean shit. No one knows that BTC is going to do. It could be at $16k at Christmas

jaxxon

No chance. Huge financial institutions are all-in. I was on Fidelity.com the other day and on their home page (logged in), they show key numbers like the price of oil, the price of gold, and... the price of bitcoin. Their FBTC ETF is super popular. The powers that be won't let BTC die. I can't speak for memecoins/shitcoins/etc.

Puzzleheaded-Dot-762

In 2020 I made a coinbase account for my mom and bought 400 dollars worth of BTC. It's still there. My trezor stash is still safe. Just don't buy IBIT. You can buy any other ETF 

blaivas007

XD Solana - ~25.3B transactions in 2026 Q1 alone, over 500x more. XRP - ~2.5M transactions per day, ~15x more. ETH - ~2M/day, ~10x more. BTC - ~750k/day, ~4x more. XD

bollocksgrenade

So sick of seeing this guy. No one seems to remember the days when he said "Bitcoin’s days are numbered" and comparing it to online gambling. He called BTC a speculative bubble rather than a legitimate financial technology. Now he's all in and everyone thinks he BTC's savior. BTC never needed saving.

Chuckychinster

The Epstein crowd loves BTC

Minute-Lake-1819

Where is the real world data saying people prefer to use these other coins over BTC and LTC for payments? Real companies never list these coins as their most used coins for payments. Yet they have “superior tech”

Shot_Ad2037

I’ve seen several people ask this dumb question: “wHo uSeS LiTeCoIN”? You are on the internet typing this. Use the internet and do some research on the question you’re asking. CoinGate, BitPay, and others have long had Litecoin as a top 3 payments coin along with BTC and usually a stable coin. You guys need to remove your head from the sand and actually look it up. Litecoins network usage dwarfs Zcash yet nobody would ever know because VC’s have done an incredible job marketing that absolute nonsense.

Objective-Walk6780

If I buy bitcoin at 20K and then sell it at 40K, I guarantee you it made me money. 😆 I don’t view BTC as a currency. I see it as an investment tool. No different from buying/selling stocks. 🤷🏻‍♂️

DifficultSquash1517

Probably because he owns the BTC ETF 🤷 Or maybe he wants to warn others the dangers of self-custody 🤷

Minute-Lake-1819

100%. To be clear, I don’t have a maxi mentality. I like and hold a dozen or so different cryptos. All with different utility and purpose. I happen to think there will be dozens of cryptos that end up being used in everyday life. BTC and LTC just being 2 of them. I just think this gamblers mindset has clouded peoples views. If a coin isn’t moving up in price as fast as another it does not make it ded. The story is told on chain and with real world data. Eventually the market will figure it out and stop gambling so we can have a more efficient world with crypto in it.

Siideral

Yeah I got screwed by the same scheme. Bought 5 BTC through a PayPal credit card transaction. Received them. Bought a butterfly labs rig. Paid in bitcoin. 4 month delay. Butterfly Labs made a fortune in hardware I paid for. Difficulty went up. Eventually got 1 BTC back before my rig was useless. Lost in on Mount Gox

tedusam

https://bitcoindeaths.com/ it's a website with all the people saying "crypto is dead" over the history. But despite that, BTC keeps going up in cycles.

liquid_at

As I see it, the only thing that will make us progress from this period into the next is utility and adoption. And I am sure you will agree that whatever currency will be adopted, will be the one that joins BTC in the ranks of the top tier coins. All of these projects have people behind them that want to see it succeed. All of them have their problems in their current state.

Minute-Lake-1819

You’re thinking full settlement. You can pay for something with LTC instantly if you needed to or with L2s. Now I ask, if XRP is a “good payment” network, why aren’t people using it at the levels of coins like BTC and LTC? The real world data shows these two coins and stables are always at the top. XRP has had over a decade to take over the payment market yet it hasn’t.

RlzJohnnyM

Satoshi has 1M BTC never been hacked. You are stupid

Minute-Lake-1819

1. Real business data from companies like CoinGate, Bitpay, bitrefill, others, consistently rank Litecoin a top used coin. Many companies don’t even post their data, but these are some examples of companies that do that anyone can verify. I only say this because some people don’t trust on chain transaction data to tell the story. 2. 5-15mins is too long for sure. LTC is around 2.5 mins for the first confirmation and it’s smart to wait for multiple confirmations before full settlement. For sure many new blockchains can beat this time. That’s not the point thou. Question: If you had to pay a bill would you TRUST a newer chain to pay that bill? Or would you take a look at the industry trends of downtime/hacks/pump and dumpers and say, hmmm, do I trust to send my money on these networks? Or should I use something like Litecoin that has done it safely for 15 years? It will take decades for any new coin to gain the level of trust coins like BTC and LTC have with storing and spending wealth and that’s the core point of this.

crazy19delta

$50 is a great start. Many people with large to huge crypto portfolios started out by buying $25 or $50. They got interested into BTC and the more they read, the more they learned, understood, then bought.

IAmFitzRoy

It is an investment when you have a strategy and you can read the financial statement where you put the money and have a judgment of diversification and timing. BTC is non of that, it just go up and down, it’s a casino.

WorkerPlayful4192

What is BTC if is not investment tool, like stocks, ETF-s, bonds and etc. Definitely is not currency to buy stuff.

notanigaa

I get your point. In my case, my family covers my food, education and living expenses, and the $50 is basically my own personal allowance/spending money. I wasn’t looking at it as money that I need for necessities. I mainly wanted to use a small amount to learn how Bitcoin investing works and get some experience with it. If I lose it, it won’t affect my family or my basic needs. That’s why I was considering putting it into BTC rather than just leaving it unused.

IAmFitzRoy

“decreasing return” I don’t come to the Bitcoin subreddit often but .. are still people thinking of BTC as investment??

NexxiumSpin

In 2013 I paid \~9 BTC for 10 Antminer S1’s that mined \~20 BTC before they left service. To make matters more favourable, my apartment at the time was inclusive utilities so it was all profit to me.

GoldmezAddams

$50 into anything isn't gonna do anything life changing. If BTC woke up and went off to the races and doubled in value, you'd have $100 worth. I'm not expecting that to happen tomorrow. $50 here and there can definitely add up. Long term, I'd take 80k sats over $50 cash, easily. But if it's your last and only $50, I'd probably just keep it cash to preserve the near term optionality, while I figured out my income/expense situation and tried to formulate a more comprehensive long term saving and investing strategy once I was in a position where income > expenses.

Minute-Lake-1819

The common complaint is price related. If the market valued hashrate, adoption, transactions, real usage, signs of any type of actual growth, they would see LTC is up there with BTC and others. The question then becomes, well, if LTC is up there in these metrics, why is it devalued compared to the rest of the industry? That’s why I think the markets had it wrong for years

Dani_Bolsa

Yeah, that gold move is the part people skip over. A \~5x repricing in a scarce asset didn't need hyperinflation, just capital rotating into something with a fixed supply, so the math for BTC at $1M is not automatically the apocalypse scenario people want it to be. That's also why I care more about real buying power than the headline number, which is the same reason I keep some capital on 50K Trade for sizing into moves without needing a huge account.

MohanMma2034

Put it in other smaller coins, even it BTC hits 200k, $50 wouldn't make that match.

JimmySki6166

Great post! I’ve been purchasing BTC weekly for about 4.5 yrs, and a few of my buddies say I’m wasting money! I’ll have the last laugh when BTC increases soon!!

Fluffy-Insurance-500

I’ve started following a few alternative coins just to diversify. Maybe it’s time to explore beyond BTC and ETH?

throwawayainteasy

> Either BTC and LTC go to near zero, or LTC catches up to BTC in usd term Or LTC goes to zero and BTC does whatever BTC does regardless of what happens with LTC. No one gives a shit about LTC. The market doesn't have to value LTC just because you do.

Few-Engineering9803

The dollar has lost 96% of it's value since inception, while BTC has gone up 6,900,000,000% since the start. I think I'll stick with saving in BTC, while I spend the fake one.

Express-Economist-86

In my early days I lost a couple hundred dollars of BTC on a hot wallet, but after learning and planning from that and comparing it to what I learned and planned in college, I decided it was acceptable tuition. I am but a peasant income-wise, so it stung, but I didn’t die, so it’s not over yet. Instead of simply BTC maxing and holding, I moved into (mainly BTC backed, but still quite diversified) dividend-paying stock. I then learned about President Trump’s “big beautiful bill” which has 100% depreciation on new equipment, and got into physical and NFT hosted miners for some steady gains under a business license. The NFT miners don’t qualify for the same depreciation schedule, those are over 15 years but that’s alright, it offsets taxes paid on daily mining income when I file. Back to the brokerage, I use income from my daily-dividend payer (STRC) to buy BTC in my broker (yeah it’s not my keys - but I move it out when it looks like a scary amount to lose) whenever my in-broker stack says my BTC is down. If BTC is up, I don’t buy it that day, surely one of my diverse dividend-payers is down? I get that instead, and have a commitment to myself to do so every paycheck from working. I estimate I’ve added a bit over a month of cash flow to my year (at a hourly rate I’m ok with) in my dividends, and that’s made it so much easier to stay the course on BTC ventures. Basically feels like free money, and since I’m only buying BTC or elements of my dividend basket (as either turns red), my cost basis is always decreasing and I’m almost daily a little better.

Previous_Valuable873

I don't see what's the problem in highlighting THE YEAR every coin has been bleeding massively alongside BTC, where BTC itself was crumbling...

Minute-Lake-1819

I’m not ignoring that data. It’s true, other networks are competing for payments. But the real world data from Bitpay, CoinGate, bitrefill, others that publish, consistently list Litecoin as a top 3 coin for transactions. It’s always LTC,BTC and a stable coin at the top. And I think this is because of the LTC/BTC historical relationship and level of trust gained that cannot be replicated by newcomers

Alfador8

​Check out the [all time hash rate chart.](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC_HASHRATE/?timeframe=ALL) It was secure enough in 2015, 2020, etc. The network is FAR more secure than "necessary".

Self_Blumpkin

Butterfly labs was the main offender too. My father and I debated buying one of them or buying 10k of BTC instead

PeaceAgitated1978

Agreed 100% which I still have to max out but yeah .. gogogo the race is on ! Load in bear.. unload top, convert to reals BTC.. wait for bear market repeat.

No-Entrepreneur-2612

If you are new on an exchange, you often can get an additional welcome bonus. BTC and ETH are the best crypto coins to have.

PeaceAgitated1978

No matter what, BTC is a net Long investment.. just like Gold.. with if they are intelligent enough to see their investments in $ through the CAGR lenses, will invest in without hesitation since nothing else beat BTC by Cagr average.. yet we are so "late" in adoption than most good years of guaranteed CAGR over performance are behind us.. we're ate the merge of the need to time the markets or underperform.. we can't just buy anywhere anymore and just wait.. that result in underperform the SP 500 average that for him is not decreasing but exponentially increasing through inflation and money printing terms.. while BTC lagging behind because of lack of adoption due to lack of understanding of the asset..

PeaceAgitated1978

The real point is, they think in $ . They don't understand Bitcoin enough to want to see their net worth in BTC. For them it's always going to be a hit and run style of investment. You get in, you get out to not get wrecked in $ term's.. once they stop to see their worth in dollars. It's all going to work and make sense to them. We live in a deflationary era . Everything is supposed to cost less and less. Artificial scarcity through artificial currency that is the dollar make it stay going up and up with inflation. You choose your own path of life, choose your own version of the economy through your currency. And yes it's pointless to choose BTC and still give the key to a institution. Chasing returns in $ term's.. might be worth it if you are a Trader that long term see anyway his worth in BTC.. just want to grow his stack through Trades.. yeah.. but the one's that actually happens to be able to.. are like 3% of the whole of them.. BTC seller.. No need anymore to sell BTC to get $ to be able to protect your $ term's value.. you can now borrow, against your BTC. Open Short without ever selling your BTC. Then Trades the Bear market down with stop losses or trailing SL.. you get all the goods parts without ever selling your BTC meaning you don't have to pay capital gains taxs at the moment.. just the tax's on your short gain's.. at the end of Bear market.. much more easy to digest.. and also, btw, that way, you decide how many taxes you are going to pay.

lwb03dc

Honestly, I am more bullish about BTC today than I've ever been. Is it a bubble? Yes. But there are institutional reasons now to maintain the bubble. Of course, i realize that these can end up being famous last words, but I think there's still juice in this lemon.

Ok-Sympathy9768

Anecdotally, my personal experience, i got into bitcoin late, I lump summed in at around 3k years ago ( I didn’t stack “sats”, I stacked bitcoins); saw that go to 69k and saw it crash back down( my exit strategy in 2021 for half my stack was the 75k price point; which never happened ). I lump summed in again after FTX shit show because I was still up overall and had strong conviction ( scarcity, decentralized, financial independence from 3rd party, and the promise of mass adoption; BTC was a sacred cow). I road it up to 120k+ this cycle and thought it was going to the moon to at least 150k; which was my new exit strategy price point for half my stack. I was wrong and it didn’t moon but crashed again, lesson learned. I sold off almost all my BTC investments, all in tranches starting in the 95k range; I made life changing money because of BTC and left life changing money on the table. Now, I will only hold a few bitcoins worth exposure, and only in ETFs, in a tax advantaged account just in case it does moon (I own zero actual bitcoins or sats). This is why I believe it’s a 4 year cycle; at best.. if bitcoin was going to moon like it supposed too, it would have not crashed back down this time If you want to invest in BTC as if there is zero evidence of a “4 year cycle”/DCA, that is your choice. I will gladly take the other side of that trade.

DangerHighVoltage111

P2p cash is the only real use case that matters. BTC got hijacked and crippled. p2p cash continues on BCH and XMR.

VendettaKarma

BTC at or around $55k is okay imo, it’ll pump again one day you can 2x. But anything else? Rough

BoyleSphere

The concern I have is that bitcoin is 17 years old now and doesn't seem to have very much real world adoption. When the world wide web was 17 years old we had amazon, ebay, wikipedia and many other business and services that people used and paid for. I see very little evidence of people using bitcoin for anything other than speculative investing. Im not trying to be a hater, I want to see this succeed. It seems for the last 5 years there was massive hype around the ftc approving bitcoin for etfs and other financial services. Now that has come and gone. What else is there to justify a gain in value for BTC?

lobhater

If it makes you feel better I mined a block of 50 btc myself... Discovered silk road, spent all the BTC and sold all the equipment for silk road. I'm an insurance agent with 2 kids today 😔

Signal-Fig-2952

This is a deeply unpopular opinion in the bitcoin self-custody world, until someone loses everything because their single sig seed gets hacked. Custody with a large regulated company like Coinbase or Bitcoin ETFs are safer for the vast majority of people. This shouldn’t be shamed — self custody folks should continue to do so, but welcome Coinbase, Robinhood, and ETF investors who will all help increase the value of BTC in the long term.

Ok-Sympathy9768

I am thinking the next high will be in that range too; best case scenario. I am convinced It’s a 4 year cycle; best case scenario I ask myself, what truly is Bitcoin’s use case that can lead to mass adoption? The only thing I can think of is absolute collapse of fiat; but even then how do you spend BTC safely for goods and services? The other real use case is moving large amounts of wealth secretly to hide it outside the law. This is my third bitcoin cycle; so I am new to it. I was one that thought for sure it was different this time around. I was wrong and I will not make that mistake again. I listened to the wrong people, tom Lee and saylor saying it was different this time; claiming a super cycle and the 4year cycle was broken I sold off almost all my stack though when it dipped into 90k. I will only hold ETFs now ( in tax advantaged accounts). I don’t see bitcoin as a “store of value” any more. Money supply is increasing, institutional adoption and bitcoin should have mooned and broke the cycle this time around .. it didn’t.

Gangaman666

There is no such thing as "blacklisted BTC" Only blacklisted addresses.

FunWithSkooma

L-BTC -> L-BTC (or any asset minted on Liquid Blockchain) takes 2 minutes and only needs 2 confs (1 minute per conf) from L-BTC to -> BTC it takes the normal Onchain time, 10 minutes per conf. It pretty liquid because all the LBTC to BTC is 100% on Blockstream side, the idea is that for every 1 Bitcoin swapped it 1 L-BTC that is minted, for every 1 BTC taken out it 1L-BTC burned.

Potatotornado20

0.25 BTC should be enough to retire on if you can 2-4x it in the next 11yrs by buying and selling the next three cycles (buying in 500 days before halving and selling 500 days after).

Unfair_Implement_582

BTC it’s obviously being manipulated now by groups like State Street and the other firms that have turned Bitcoin into a Financial vehicle for manipulation.

filenotfounderror

Unlikely TBH. Its not that ASIC miners weren't profitable, its that companies selling them were all shady as fuck. They would never deliver the miners on time and they would pre mine with the machines before sending them to you. So the realiry of any btc you could mine was much lower than any theoretical amount. You would have 100% been better off just buying BTC directly than buying an asic miner.

EarningsPal

So someone can construct a database of BTC balances linked with Identity and Location?

No_Community7021

Creo que no influye que todo el mundo lo sepa porque a quien afecta principalmente es a los minero y por lo tantoichas dejarán de minar y otros seguirán. Como inversor te puede beneficiar o perjudicar. En cierto modo BTC tiene cierta predictibilidad. No soy experto sólo estoy pensando en alto.

MakeItMine2024

The last 3 BTC highs m: from 2017 to 2021 high 251% higher and the 2021 to 2025 high was 82% ( about 1/3 or 17 to 21) I would conservatively estimate the next high to be about 27%to 50% higher than 126,000 to 160,000-189,000

Roquer

I ordered my butterfly labs asic around that time and paid for it in BTC. By the time it arrived 6 months later the coin had gone up 8x and I knew it would never mine enough to make up the difference.

Efficient_Range1156

I’m selling my ND3 miata to buy more, I already have a lot of BTC. It is my favorite car. I hope this answers your question.

SunsoutNeedMoney3150

Cherishing BTC over wife and kids! You need to reassess.

Global_Strain_4219

Why selling all? :( Couldn't you held like 1btc? My biggest mistakes were always dumping everything. We all know that one day BTC will be 1M$. Why not just keeping one?

BoyleSphere

The concern I have is that bitcoin is 17 years old now and doesn't seem to have very much real world adoption. When the world wide web was 17 years old we had amazon, ebay, wikipedia and many other business and services that people used and paid for. I see very little evidence of people using bitcoin for anything other than speculative investing. Im not trying to be a hater, I want to see this succeed. It seems for the last 5 years there was massive hype around the ftc approving bitcoin for etfs and other financial services. Now that has come and gone. What else is there to justify a gain in value for BTC?

so-many-user-names

I doubt BTC will be around in 20230

TheZebrawizard

It's possible. Anything can disappear. The thing bitcoin has going for it is that it can be used as a easily transferable global asset. But if some else gets adopted over BTC which would be inevitable.... Well you can say goodbye to bitcoin.

user_name_checks_out

> I am not a core developer or a Bitcoin expert, Are you a bot? This post smacks of ChatGPT. > Here are the key anomalies that the official version fails to reconcile: > 1. The Impossibility of Wave 1 Velocity (July 30, 2026) > The attack began at 01:31 UTC on July 30. Within exactly 41 minutes, 1,196 high-value addresses were systematically drained of 1,082 BTC. To achieve this speed, an attacker cannot scan the entire Bitcoin state blindly. Jesus Christ. This is so fucking stupid. Obviously the attacker prepared the transactions in advance. That was plainly obvious from the moment the attack unfolded. This post is a complete load of crap.

AutoModerator

Post is by: EpicPanda404 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1vpvvj4/i_audited_drprofits_own_vip_telegram_history_from/ I’ve followed DrProfit’s content for a while, and one thing that always stood out to me is how often previous predictions are later described as having played out “perfectly,” “exactly as predicted,” etc. I wanted to know what the record actually looked like **without relying on screenshots selected after the fact**, so I decided to do something a bit more systematic. I then fed everything into ChatGPT and asked it to audit the posts chronologically. The important part is the methodology: **A prediction gets frozen at the moment it was made.** Later explanations aren't allowed to change: * the target * the timeframe * the conditions * or what was originally expected Then I checked whether he: 1. hit the prediction, 2. partially hit it, 3. missed it, 4. explicitly invalidated it beforehand, 5. or later described it differently from how it was originally presented. For several of the major predictions I also checked the actual subsequent market outcome. This produced a much more nuanced picture than I expected. # The short version After going through the archive, my conclusion is: **DrProfit is clearly not someone just throwing random predictions at the wall.** There are some genuinely impressive calls in the history. At the same time: **the retrospective version of his track record is noticeably cleaner than the actual real-time prediction history.** Those are two different statements, and both appear to be true. # Some of his strongest calls # 1. Early-2024 Bitcoin bull-market call — very good On February 18, 2024, after Bitcoin broke approximately $48.5k, he became extremely bullish and described it as the beginning of the major bull phase. BTC subsequently went through $70k, $100k and eventually much higher. This wasn't a vague “Bitcoin will go up eventually” call. He identified a specific breakout level and changed his stance accordingly. **My audit score: 9/10.** # 2. September 2024 Fed 50 bps cut — excellent In August 2024 he repeatedly argued that Powell would cut **at least 0.50% in September**. The Fed then cut exactly **50 basis points** on September 18. This is one of the cleanest predictions in the entire archive because: * it was specific, * it had a deadline, * and there was no way to reinterpret it afterwards. **10/10.** He deserves credit for this one. # 3. June 2025 BTC $120k–150k forecast — strong hit On June 29, 2025, he said Bitcoin could reach roughly: **$120,000–$150,000 over the next few months.** BTC subsequently entered that range and eventually traded above $120k. Because his forecast was a **range**, I don't think it's fair to say it failed simply because BTC didn't reach $150k. The lower part of his stated target was reached. **9/10.** # 4. $115k–125k BTC short zone — probably one of his best trades This is one of the more impressive parts of the archive. During August/September 2025 he gradually: * sold spot, * moved into USDT, * and built BTC shorts inside approximately **$115k–125k**. By September 14 he stated that he was effectively: **100% shorts/USDT and 0% spot/stocks.** BTC eventually topped around the upper edge of that area before falling significantly. As a **trading zone**, this was extremely good. **9.5/10.** # But there are significant misses too # ETH $10k–14k prediction This is probably the clearest failure I found. On July 23, 2024, he published a very specific ETH roadmap: * **Q3 2024:** $4,500–5,500 * **Q4 2024:** $5,500–8,000 * **Q1 2025:** $5,500–8,000 * **Q2 2025:** $8,000–14,000 He also explicitly expected: **ETH $10,000–14,000 within one year.** That simply didn't happen. ETH remained dramatically below those targets through the stated periods. Later ETH eventually reached approximately $4,800 in 2025, and that move was heavily celebrated as another successful ETH prediction. But here's why maintaining the original record matters: Calling $4,800 successfully later **does not retroactively make a $10k–14k one-year forecast correct**. Those are different predictions. **Original ETH forecast: 2/10.** # February 2025 ETH call In February 2025, around roughly $2.1k–2.7k ETH, he said February, March and April were ETH's strongest months. He was confident enough to effectively say: **“In two months we will find out.”** ETH instead remained weak and went lower. The bullish thesis was subsequently extended further into 2025, and ETH did eventually rally strongly later. So directionally the longer-term bullish idea eventually worked. But the **specific two-month timing didn't**. I'd score this around: **4/10.** This is an important pattern I've noticed: **His directional instincts can be substantially better than his timing.** # The 2026 recession / stock-market crash call This is probably the single most important failed macro prediction because it had a hard deadline. In September 2025 he argued that a major recessionary / 2008-style crash was coming. More importantly, he didn't just say “eventually.” He said the market had: **maximum time until Q2 2026 — approximately May/June — before the recession broke wide open.** He was still pointing toward June 2026 as the important crash area in May. That deadline passed. The massive crash described in the original prediction did not occur within the stated window. That makes this fundamentally different from saying: > The original prediction was falsifiable. And based on its original terms: **1/10.** The crisis thesis may still eventually prove correct. But if it happens later, that doesn't make the original **“maximum May/June”** prediction correct. That's exactly why I froze the predictions before judging them. # The $145k–150k BTC controversy is more nuanced than I initially thought This one surprised me. At first I thought I had found a pretty major contradiction. On August 24, 2025 he said he expected: 1. a September BTC correction, 2. followed by another rally toward roughly **$145k–150k**. Later he became extremely bearish and described \~$120k as the cycle top. That sounds like hindsight rewriting. Except when I dug deeper into the archive, I found something important: **he actually did publicly cancel the $140k thesis before the later outcome.** By September 10, the $140k move had already become only one possible scenario after the expected $90–94k correction. And on **September 26**, he explicitly wrote that circumstances had changed and: **the $140k target was invalid.** So I don't think it's fair to call this a fake prediction or contradiction. A trader is allowed to change his mind when information changes. In fact, that's usually what a trader *should* do. # But there is still a problem with how this gets remembered later Later he summarizes 2025 roughly as: > That's not completely false. He did pivot and position for the top. But it leaves out an important part of the history: **only weeks earlier, he himself had also been expecting $140k–150k.** The full history is therefore: **bullish $145–150k target** **→ conditions deteriorate** **→ target becomes conditional** **→ target explicitly cancelled** **→ full bearish pivot** **→ $115–125k becomes the major short/top zone** That's actually pretty good adaptive trading. But: > would be a much cleaner story than what really happened. And this distinction is probably the biggest thing people should understand about his content. # Another interesting example: the 2022 $18k BTC bottom DrProfit frequently references his legendary \~$18k Bitcoin bottom call. And to be fair: **it was a good call.** During 2022 he repeatedly bought BTC around $18–20k and called the area the bottom. BTC eventually bottomed around $15.5–16k. Calling $18k from dramatically higher prices is still an impressive macro call in my opinion. I'd personally score it: **7.5/10.** But the complete archive contains another detail I almost never see mentioned. On **June 13, 2022**, while BTC was collapsing, he wrote that although he had previously predicted $18k: **he no longer believed in $18k because too many people were now calling for it.** He subsequently changed his mind again and returned to the $18k thesis. Later he repeatedly bought there. Again: there is nothing inherently wrong with changing your mind. But saying years later: > makes the path sound considerably more linear than it actually was. # Altseason is another case where the reality was more nuanced In December 2024 he strongly announced that: **altseason had begun.** At first I assumed this was another bad call because of how badly many alts subsequently performed. But after checking the market at the exact time of the prediction: he was actually pretty justified. Altcoin-season metrics were very high in early December and many major alts were outperforming BTC. So the original **“altseason is happening now”** call was fairly good. Where it became weaker was the expectation that this would continue into a much larger sustained cycle. I'd give the original call around: **7/10.** # So what is DrProfit actually good at? From everything I've seen so far, I think his strongest abilities are: # Identifying major Bitcoin zones He seems genuinely good at recognizing: * accumulation areas, * distribution areas, * major technical regime changes, * and spots where risk/reward becomes interesting. The $115–125k short area is a good example. # Changing positioning Contrary to what I initially expected, he actually does change his view when the evidence changes. He repeatedly talks about being “like water.” The archive supports that more than I expected. The $140k cancellation is a good example. # Macro narrative construction Some of his macro calls have been excellent. The 50bps Fed prediction was very impressive. Howeve

L4gsp1k3

So you are asking in a BTC group, whether it's good to buy BTC or not? This is an echo chamber of magnitude when it's coming to BTC, this group is perma bull and will without a blink in their eyes tell you that it's always the best time to buy BTC, while they are cashing out.

Illustrious-Boss9356

Im with you, but the truth is adoption for real world has actually gone down. Im all for BTC but can't be in denial about reality. Hope vendors come around.

BitInfyOfficial

The conviction is impressive, but the debt part makes me nervous. Putting $90-95k into BTC is one thing. Taking loans, stopping pension contributions and selling your flat makes the downside much harder to absorb if BTC stays down for years. The 10-year thesis might work, but the real test is whether you can comfortably survive the 2-3 years in between. Markets have a way of testing conviction when you need the money most. Hope it works out for you.

ALPHAETHEREUM

I'm using it. Since 2015 Japan is crypto friendly. I used it to pay utilities, bills and mom & pop shops. Sadly, because everyone is so hopeful with fiat to make them rich, there are lesser place that accepts BTC. But I'm using it to pay for services and I have bought a small condo in Tokyo using BTC way back in 2016. The crazy is you and the shit is your mentality! Get out of Crypto!

Successful_Ad_380

If the amount of nonsense in the comments is any indicator then I would tell you to buy now and coming months. BTC is around it's low.

VivaHollanda

I have to make a strong case for BTC, so let's make a fake statement and compare BTC to six weak economies!

Laukess

>The attack began at 01:31 UTC on July 30. Within exactly 41 minutes, 1,196 high-value addresses were systematically drained of 1,082 BTC. What is this based on? Why could they not have started the attack 5 years ago? >According to preliminary exchange IP data and community tracking, the victim pool is heavily concentrated: Some talk about the bitcoin community in Asia being more likely to roll their own seed. This group would probably also be more likely to buy the CC. I don't think an odd distribution on it's own tells the whole story. I lot of factors went into who got exploited and how much they lost. Regions don't hold the same amount of bitcoin, and some regions might feel the need to protect their bitcoin better at lower purchasing power. Maybe some regions are more likely to use multi-sig because of the geographical location. Maybe you're more likely to live far away from your parents in NA, but less so in EU. >**3. Incomplete and "Surgical" Wallet Draining** I think this points to the opposite. The attacker got lucky finding the bug and did a piss poor job at executing it. If they were more skilled, they could do what you imply, but target multi-sig. They didn't. >**4. The Contact Paradox** Them having a list of emails does not imply that they have all user data saved. They could have chosen to not send emails out about the exploit and still have saved the user data. Would probably be the better move if they saved the user data, and didn't want the heat.

realdanknowsit

Thats why my wife and kids will never know how much BTC 😂

Practical_Mango7633

Mount Gox? There was no Mount Gox, it was MtGox short for Magic the Gathering Online Exchange... At least get your facts straight... Also no I do not think it is too risky for most crypto users. It is too risky for those not willing to spend 15-30 minutes learning how to use a hardware wallet. it is really not very hard... 99% of those doing self-custody and losing their coins do it because they willingly hand over their seed phrase to scammers. Scammers hate that one little trick. DO NOT SHARE YOUR SEEDPHRASE!!!! If you only live by this one simple rule. Never ever share your seed phrase ever! 99% of lost BTC from self-custody could probably have been avoided. Self-custody is one of the main reasons why I hold Bitcoin. It is that one thing that is completely out of banks and governments reach that I can easily take with me more or less unnoticeable where ever I go. However you have lots of people who use centrale exchanges and still get scammed into sending their BTC to scammers. Plus you have the whole risk with that exchange controlling your crypto. MtGox may be one of the oldest and largest but there has been so many more after it where people has lost all or most of their crypto. And not just the global exchanges, lots of major exchanges in different countries as well. Also lots of countries are still unclear on the rules and regulations for crypto. You may risk having your crypto frozen because of new regulations the exchange has to follow. There has been many examples of that as well. I think that if you got half a brain and 15-30 minutes of time, self custody is the safest for most.

TheresNoSecondBest

>1 BTC = 1 BTC. That's correct. One bitcoin is always 1/21million. Not a cult, it's called math. >But no ones using it for transactions. Wrong, mate. I do use it.

oneawesomewave

I think I still have keys to an old Amory wallet with 0.05 BTC or sth on it. Just realized I never tried to recover...lol

SkidMarkShark

People who can't understand how to secure their seed phrase should stay with the banking system. Everyone should know you don't trust any wallet maker to establish your seed phrase. Make a passphrase that's long and full of characters and are non BIP 39 words. Don't spend out of your cold storage wallet consolidate UTXO's when you have to and make another wallet. I don't think anything that involves people losing their money is funny, but people need to educate their selves when it comes to BTC. As far as a key signer (like every other wallet) it is still one of the best

fams_blaq_sheep

Oh I'm going to I just wanted to hear what people had to say about the market too Surely by December 31 I will show you full amount in wallet I will gradually make BTC deposits so see you in December But it's a dare so what does the winner get I can't go free dare

SkidMarkShark

People are gonna have more money invested in wallets than they do their BTC at this rate just because they don't understand what they are doing. Use a Passphrase for God's sake or go back to banks, nobody is going to hold your hand in this space.

Illustrious-Boss9356

This is the crazy ass shit that's driving people away from Bitcoin. Yall are a cult. 1 BTC = 1 BTC. But no ones using it for transactions. Be nice to others, otherwise, this movement will continue to bleed people.

ALPHAETHEREUM

If you bought Bitcoin just to get rich in fiat, it beats Satoshi' purpose of what Bitcoin truly is meant for. 1BTC = 1BTC no matter what the Fiat value. Anyone fail to see this, deserves to lose their coins. Aren't we supposed to fight a system? And yet people buy just to enrich themselves with the system. Well, goodbye and you deserve to lose it all

Admirable_Pay_4345

I think “is now a good time?” depends less on predicting BTC and more on the decision you're about to make. For example: how much of your portfolio would BTC be after the purchase, how long are you willing to hold, and how much of a temporary loss could you tolerate without panic selling? I've been building a small beta tool around exactly that idea — it checks the decision against your own limits instead of trying to predict the price. If you want, I can share it.

Admirable_Pay_4345

The interesting question might not be whether BTC is cheap today, but whether buying 1 BTC at once fits the risk you're actually comfortable with. For example: if you bought 1 BTC today and it dropped 30–40% over the next few months, would you still be comfortable holding it, or would you regret putting that much in at once? I've been working on a small tool that approaches the decision from that angle — testing the decision against different scenarios rather than trying to predict the Bitcoin price. If you're interested, I can share it.

DyehuthyTV

Read about how **Africans** with a **dictatorial governments** avoid 'control' and make **Bitcoin** transactions with **Machankura** (*with no or poor internet connection too*) :D An the OP charts are Fiat Currencies vs USD, not vs BTC. **Example:** Use the Tradingview chart for this, choose BTC-USD and change the currency! (the denominator: USD, EUR, ARS, TRY, etc, etc.) If you look at the charts, you will see that its not the same BTC-USD (US Dollar) chart as for example the BTC-ARS (Argentine peso) or BTC-TRY (Turkish lira) **A weaker Fiat currency (hyperinflated) has a more bullish BTC-XXX pattern** In the 'matrix' of TradingEconomics, you can sort countries by Inflation Rate (CPI YoY%) Tradingeconomics: [Heatmap - Economic Indicators By Country](https://tradingeconomics.com/matrix) 👀 Hyperinflated Fiat Currencies (with GDP data) * Venezuela (576%), BTC-VES * Iran (87,9%), BTC-IRR * Argentina (33,8%), BTC-ARS * Turkey (31,75%), BTC-TRY * Malawi (21,1%), BTC-MWK * etc, etc Therefore, with a lower (less hyperinflated) Inflation Rate the chart will be more similar to the US dollar (BTC-USD) chart. Remember that the US Dollar is the Reserve Currency of Foreign Fiat currencies. The global system of Fiat currencies are Central Banks and Governments implement the same Economic Policy. Some are worse (hyperinflated) than others implementing it, but the idea behind it is the same. :D

Admirable_Pay_4345

I think the harder question isn't whether Bitcoin goes up or down in the next 6–12 months, because nobody really knows. The useful question is: what happens to your money if BTC drops another 20%, 30% or 50% after you buy? Would you still be comfortable holding? I've been working on a small tool that approaches the decision this way — scenarios instead of price predictions. If you're interested, I can share it.

Mudhutted

As long as inflation keeps doing its thing to FIAT I’m buying BTC.

xPATCHESx

This is A huge issue with new users today looking at crypto. A lot of them think it's only value is speculative and don't even understand the original reasons WHY people chose a decentralised sovereign hard currency asset like BTC to store their value. But there are many valid ways to use crypto. So if someone just wants to speculate and hope some third party "looks after" their assets in the mean time, then that is fine as long as they understand and accept the trade-offs

Outrageous_Hall1090

Dont get it. Why did you think you had 0.75 BTC? Was that shown in the app?

CyanTurquoise

I just wonder when 1 BTC is going to be able to buy a decent house.

Nice-Roof-6722

Indeed, I was dumb at one stage too and did similar, back at the 2017 period BTC ATH I thought this is great, yeah... ok, looking back got a house and nice car and am comfortable, haven't sold everything but if I waited another 7 years and lived in a shithole and being abused and didn't live my life I'd have my own island, exotic cars and whatnot (they dont phase me BTW) but having that type of moneycompared to now I'd help all family members out instead of setting myself up for the future, I know we all look at the money, even more so for my governments new regulation on tax but remember this fellow Bitcoiners ! Bitcoin is for the future, imagine leaving your children or loved ones without debt or waiting and HODL'ing while riding the wave for the next 20+ years...

id-ltd

I am a bit purist on this Your keys == your coins It doesn't matter how you came by them, that is external, centralised nonsense that BTC was created to not care about. If you didn't keep your keys safe enough, then that is an issue for you. All the tainted coin stuff is just the state trying to get it's paws into the whole thing - BTC is our one and only chance to have a modern non-state controlled representation of value.

Both-Garden-1612

My avarage price is still 32k. My guess we will see BTC skyrocket once the AI bill arrives. This bubble gonna pop soon.

Romanizer

Exactly. USDt (or CHF/EUR if you live in Europe) for short-term liquidity needs, BTC for long-term wealth growth. That's a solid saving tactic for anyone in the world.

ice-ink

BTC went around 7x from bottom to top of this cycle “in the last few years”, you know it’s public information you can check, right?..