BTC

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Post is by: Narrow_Chance7639 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ocz083/the_1_trillion_zombie_loan_time_bomb_why_crypto/ The digital asset market is experiencing a profound contradiction: while institutions are accelerating adoption with $18 billion in Q3 ETF inflows, the superficial stability of traditional finance masks a latent contagion risk that crypto cannot ignore. The core conviction is that the failure of the AI investment cycle is the true macro risk transfer. Knowledge is the real flex here. 1) Macro-Credit Contagion: Stability in investment-grade corporate bonds (YTW confirmed at 4.81%) is deceptive. The underlying risk is the estimated $1 Trillion in zombie corporate loans. 2) AI Failure Nexus: This risk is tied to the AI investment cycle: the MIT finding that 95% of AI projects fail to achieve profitability. If this translates into revenue write-downs, it would immediately challenge the viability of zombie firms, forcing defaults if the Fed delays rate cuts. 3) The Short vs. Reserve Split: Market structure is bipolar: an anonymous whale executed a $235 million short position targeting $105K, while institutional capital executed a $500 million raise to establish BTC as a primary treasury reserve. The market is structurally bifurcated. Is the greater near-term risk the speculative short pressure triggering a retail liquidation cascade below $110K, or is it the latent contagion from the $1 Trillion zombie loan market driven by AI investment failure? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

admin_default

Pretty simple and (relatively) low risk. I followed the Bitcoin halving cycles and bought steadily when it was historically in “Crypto Winter”. I lived frugally and put every paycheck into BTC and ETH only at these times. Then, I leveraged (using collateralized margin via Aave) at the start of every cyclical bull phase and I deleveraged as soon as every Crypto Winter started. I only bought BTC and ETH. If I wanted more rapid gains, I leveraged into those - no need to deal with alts that don’t always recover from the winters.

Consistent-Baby5904

Do Kwon, are you reading this!! BTC, self custody. lol

_TheWolfOfWalmart_

What, do you expect BTC to still put in the kind of gains it did a decade ago? It has a market cap over $2 trillion now.

onandoffchain

BTC, ETH, and SOL are for sure considered blue chips in crypto.

Og-Morrow

The value of BTC would be zero, beyond the fact that this is not possible.

ThePuzz1e

Gold and BTC should generally be inversely correlated. Gold is considered a hedge against market down turn. Though we like to think of BTC as digital gold, the truth is that it’s still very much considered a high risk asset by the market. This means that we see BTC more correlated to the stock market than anything else.

TexasBoyz-713

Personally, I think if BTC draws down 40%. In traditional markets it’s usually 20% but it’s crypto, so that’s where I’d draw the line

Acceptable_Strike_20

ETH is a meme coin bruh 🤣. I’d have like 1,000 and just forget about it. BTC all the way.

BitMartExchange

don’t worry, you’re definitely not dumb for asking this! Stablecoins confuse a lot of people at first because they don’t “go up,” but they serve a really different purpose in the crypto ecosystem. Basically: * **USDT/USDC = crypto versions of the U.S. dollar.** They stay around $1 so traders and investors can move money quickly *without* touching banks. * They act as a **bridge** \- people use them to trade into BTC, ETH, altcoins, or DeFi products instantly, 24/7. * For yield - that 8–10% you’ve seen - it usually comes from **lending or liquidity**: you’re letting someone else borrow or use your stablecoins (like how banks lend out deposits). Some platforms pay higher returns because they lend to margin traders or use DeFi pools. That said, risk still exists. The yield isn’t magic, it comes with counterparty or smart contract risk, depending on where your coins are parked.

Aromatic_Society_593

I would: Buy $1k/month in VOO ETF $125/week in Bitcoin indefinitely and when/if BTC goes under $100k, flip it. So, $250/week of BTC and $500/month in VOO.

namieorange

Are you talking about Saylor? Or who? What's 3x his investment? BTC at 210k?

Hazys

Hmm I don’t know perhaps my areas so far don’t have much places accept BTC payment.

To_k

The true HODLERs used to be BTC heavy every other cycle. But IMO this cycle, the true HODLERs are the alt holders. Stay strong.

To_k

BTC trading like a shitcoin, and all the newbie traders still staying over leveraged to get their gambling fix. I just find it funny that for years I’ve heard how altcoiners are “gamblers” and want “quick money” even though the same mfs would be 100x leverage on BTC getting rekt week after week. Holding alt coins has been a constant test of patience, NO ONE other than Trump and his goons have made significant money from alts, so please tell me how this is remotely considered “quick money”. 4 years of DOWN. Takes the conviction of a fucking god to keep your belief for an alt season.

Last_Explanation9105

For ATO, BTC is an asset, and CGT applies, not income tax. Each buy has its own 12-month clock for the 50% CGT discount. So, use FIFO and sell slowly to stay in a lower bracket. Keep all the records (ATO gets a copy of the exchange data). Starter options can include borrowing, using BTC as a collateral, using non-KYC, SMSF, immigration, etc.

typeIIcivilization

Have you guys forgotten that BTC already dropped nearly 10%. And that gold is up 12% this month? To be direct, BTC is superior. But this means largely nothing. The whole market is acting odd, investors and global wealth are being cautious right now.

canadianragweed

Brokerages and exchanges will stand the test of time. If they don't, BTC won't be worth anything anyways.

devCheckingIn

The lines above the candlesticks are shorts and the lines below are longs, with the brighter colors being the higher liquidation prices. (You can hover to see the liquidation price.) As you can see for Oct. 21, the BTC price went up to liquidate short leverage (crossing the lines) and as it went up, people were entering new long positions beneath the candles. After BTC reached about 114k and a bunch of long leverage had built up below, the price went down to liquidate all the new long leverage down to about 107.8k. Now there is a lot of short leverage built up going all the way to 115k.

nugymmer

I can just kiss this year’s gains goodbye, but if this clown thinks I’m going to sell, I don’t know what to say. I do think we are in for a slump but that just means cheap BTC for me. No more alts.

canadianragweed

I have assets other than BTC and crypto so the 80% declines have sucked but, diversity and all. I never sell assets unless there is a good reason to OR I have a better plan for the proceeds. Some tax lots I will never sell hoping my kids get a step up in cost basis when I die. Again, unless there is a reason to.

mrmgn3t

BTC 200k by the end of the night.

Simke11

BTC went up 8x from bear market low at the end of '22, I'd say it was a pretty good and long run.

Odd-Parking-90210

Given BTC's volatility it more depends on whether you buy in the morning or afternoon.

devCheckingIn

Bro BTC at the same price it was in December. Would have been better off throwing your money under the mattress.

RuiZz9299

Crypto is never “over.” At least not for Bitcoin and other major coins. If you want, try using Minara AI or any data tool to generate the top 100 crypto assets by market cap and check their yearly performance — you’ll see the difference between large caps and small caps is massive. Most people who say “crypto is dead” are the ones who lost money trading. Real holders are still in profit and keep holding major assets. Ever since the U.S. government officially classified BTC as a strategic reserve asset, there’s no way crypto is going to disappear.

Mdizzlebizzle

This the kinda ish that gives me pause on liquidated my BTC for a house down payment lol.

_TheWolfOfWalmart_

Alts aren't long term investments. Get that out of your head. Look at ALL of them versus BTC. Look at the ADA/BTC pair to start.

ConsciousSkyy

Seems like a lot of newcomers are learning the hard lesson about altcoins: they all bleed out against daddy BTC

devCheckingIn

It was all a liquidity grab on Binance: [https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap?coin=BTC&type=pair](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap?coin=BTC&type=pair)

watch-nerd

BTC and ETH are the only ones, at this point. They're the only ones that are recognized by the CME, so far. They're the only ones that have multiple ETFs available with large capital inflows. Combined, BTC + ETH = 70% of the total crypto market cap. Everything is just diminishing importance.

seismicsat

The BTC is not yours if it’s on an exchange. The exchange has rights to the private keys, not you, ultimately defeating the purpose of why bitcoin was created. Yes, the additional security inconvenience is worth it, undoubtedly. I’ve used a trezor model t for over 4 years and have had no issues at all.

Solana_Chief

Bitcoin, BTC and $BTC

ConsciousSea2841

You misspelled “gold” as BTC

Logical_Knowledge843

Thanks for explaining this. I didn’t know they submitted a request to allow holders to withdrawal actual btc. I’m not 59 for quite a while so I’m thinking to add to my BTC ETF in my Roth IRA account and if i ever need the money just take out the principle which wouldnt be taxed. Assuming btc doesnt lose value of course. Thanks again!

seismicsat

Congrats - go ahead and grab the hardware wallet as soon as you can; can’t hurt to set it up and get used to it; this will be the most crucial aspect to you owning your BTC outright as I’m sure you know. Salud!

RuiZz9299

I’d say it’s a double-layer theory. When BTC hits 100k, it actually makes more sense to buy ETH — they’re both in the mainstream market, but ETH still has more room to double. Same logic as in stocks: when Intel pumps hard, AMD usually follows because they’re basically the same product. So if BTC runs to 120k, ETH and other top alts could easily catch up. Personally, I’m loading up on Aster. If you use Minara, just let the AI find the best correlated project for you — it’s been pretty accurate for me.

Front_Guarantee_9892

In my She paids the rent , just Not my share, No joint account married almost 10 and weakening every year that pass by 💯✌️. DCA on BTC is where its at or Not 🤑

Front_Guarantee_9892

Seu nariz sabia tudo sobre BTC

devCheckingIn

Just follow the map: [https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap?coin=BTC&type=pair](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap?coin=BTC&type=pair) We'll probably be at 115k tomorrow if the broader stock market isn't interfering.

hiphopolis

The average closing price for Bitcoin (BTC) in 2020 was $11,116.38. It was up 303.1% for the year.

ModifiedLeaf

If institutions are adopting BTC doesn't that mean their High Frequency Trading Algos would be trading for them? Would it be possible for those algo to have enough liquidity to move the markets?

namieorange

BTC crashes 20-30% in a random day? If the charts are not mistaken, we haven't had any of those in this cycle. What's more, BTC is dumping less than in previous cycles. It just has some ED

Big-Finding2976

So if you're a buyer it's better to use PayPal than BTC because they'll refund you if the seller rips you off, but if you're a seller it's better to use BTC because there's no middleman to refund the buyer if you rip them off?

romangiler

I’m doing well, missed a few critical moments when I could have taken profits and bought more BTC for less. It’s about time horizon for your ROI and liquidity needs at the end of the day. Just holding forever is not the single best approach. Unexpected events or life changes can’t be accounted for, etc etc.

crazy_lolipopp

Absolutely pathetic day for BTC

TheDoge420

BTC 4k crabbin’

AnoAnoSaPwet

Well BTC was fun while it lasted. Be ready for the market dump. Now it's just a manipulation tool from the government to leech liquidity from us plebs. 

BanzaiKen

Super doubtful on this. Next time ask him how close he is to RSA2048 or AES256 being hacked. BTC ECDSA is more robust vs quantum attacks than RSA right now, and yet nobody sees the tech space having full blown meltdowns their WAN infrastructure could be vulnerable to Shor's algorithim in the next two years. I also have buds at Okta and PA and the focus is AI as a spearphishing or penetration tools, not quantum blowing through public certificates like a child vs godzilla. When banks and places like Amazon and Paypal are crowing about being quantum ready because actual standards exist and tech companies are shilling it as part of their WAN IDS systems that's when people should take it seriously.

Classic_Flower_735

For BTC to 10x market share vs gold sounds INSANE unless gold's market share plummets to nothing? But if gold even stagnates at 14.5 TIMES that of bitcoin? JUST to achieve parity bitcoin must reach THIRTY TRILLION DOLLARS and then it will be 1X of gold which incidently will be 1.5 million per bitcoin now UPON that milestone gold would have to remain stagnant and bitcoin would have to achieve FIFTEEN MILLION DOLLARS per coin ...(which as far as price is not far off Saylor's long term prediction of 13 million per.) ....Bitcoin's market cap at fifteen million per coin will be roughly THREE HUNDRED TRILLION DOLLARS! Note the ENTIRE M1 money supply of the ENTIRE world is only 50 trillion so a 15 million dollar 10X of gold would be SIX TIMES what M1 is right now! Do people even think before they make these outlandish predictions? But maybe they only mean btc will 10x what it is now and gold will stay where it is for instance? So a 1.1 million dollar bitcoin and a 4300/ounce gold? THAT at least seems feasible

potificate

Because BTC is worth more dollars than now. Not sure what your question is.

randomquestion11111

Exactly one year ago BTC was at at 67k. It’s not over yet guys

SeaworthinessSad7300

i made more money on BTC under Biden

Sazmining

$20/day is far more than most people can even hope to DCA! You're not late - stay on the right track and you'll be fine. As for a hardware wallet, can't go wrong with a ColdCard! Any wallet that can be airgapped and never plugged into a computer is best. BTC Sessions has great advice around this: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZKoSmQu30Q](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZKoSmQu30Q)

AnoAnoSaPwet

The blocks are still being mined, but only roughly 2 BTC worth of transactions are readable (public) per day. The rest is all OTC, which is not really great. If your okay with 98.6% of all BTC transactions being privately managed by institutions? 

TheKingInTheNorth

Lmao, they opened the initial huge short when BTC was right around all time highs. They’re very convicted and very profitable so far.

Yeti_Dude

After being in crypto for 5 years now and a BTC owner - I am genuinely convinced anyone who worries the least about BTC specifically, doesn’t understand what is going on and where this world economy is going.

potificate

You might be surprised to learn that the FDIC insurance only applies to your cash position, not the value of anything else (such as BTC) in your account. So, to be both fully covered *and* get that 4%, you’d need to be willing to have 250k in cash tied up doing “nothing”.

Oldfamilyguy

He can use the BTC ATM at the town well.

Front_Guarantee_9892

Russian rulet or Russian BTC ?

AnoAnoSaPwet

This community isn't exactly intelligent in that regard. Not much actual cryptography is discussed with BTC, just "number go up means BTC is the best!" around these parts. The whole point of keeping BTC as close as possible to how Satoshi's plan worked, is: more complex difficulty + higher fees for miners/validators + becoming slower (full blocks) = more value over time.  But that plan has started to be deviated from. BTC isn't supposed to be cheaper to send (obviously through L2s, that don't functionally exist), it's not supposed to be super fast (which is suspect from low transaction volume), and it's certainly not supposed to have empty blocks (OTC BTC bought/transacted privately, deviating from BTC being immutable, technically these transactions aren't occurring). But the crazy thing though is that Satoshi made Bitcoin block sizes adjustable, he was enthusiastic about L2s existing for Bitcoin (which none functionally exist, Lightning can't scale for shit), and BTC blocks were initially private (as no one used it), but became public over time, as more people used the network.  I won't say any of it is bad, but it throws a wrench in the whole plan. Miners/validators control the network consensus, they don't want change, this is their cash cow. The more I learn about cryptography in the cryptocurrency markets, the more jaded I become about the future, and how very little networks out there actually care about the future? It's just mass hoarding wealth in another form. 

Sazmining

If you're not having fun riding the BTC rollercoaster, you're doing it wrong! 🎢⚡⛏️

BlackDog990

Hindsight is 20/20. In April of 2020 we all thought the world was ending, and no one knew if their job was safe or not, grocery workers included. Also, I find it funny around this sub that people always say don't put money in BTC that you need to touch near term due to volatility, while also chastising people who dont invest what they cant afford to lose because the nature of being working poor is you dont have any extra money and are always one big bill away from homelessness. So let's stop with the implications that people who didn't invest their measly stimulus checks weren't "smart".

OkZucchini5351

Agreed. 2025 has been a crab year. Just look at that yearly candle. Weakest green candle in BTC history.

maxpoe

BTC: +15,633.34 (up 16.73%) year to date Gold: +1,472.20 (up 55.16%) year to date

dimi727

This is the most fucking annoying market ever man. BTC goes sideways for months. Every 5% pump gets sold off because trump changed his mind 4 times when taking a shit. What a ridiculous manipulation. It's just really really tiring.

shpeucher

I think that commentary is said sarcastically. He knows it’s not going to Zero, I think he’s drawing a parallel to how normies look at BTC which drops 5% daily a lot

Wonderful_Reason_227

I think those who are successful keep their mouth shut: even with family who could follow their lead. I need to transfer BTC Right Away but I’m losing over 30% every time I push it through the blockchain. I can’t find anyone who knows me to advise me of my errors Why? I know no one…my peers are teachers, church choir, my tenants… Not people who are willing to “try something new”!!! So my broker, and I.

TheFudge

I don’t know how that’s possible, I have 21M BTC.

devCheckingIn

Yep. They didn't get it all though: [https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap?coin=BTC&type=pair](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap?coin=BTC&type=pair)

Sazmining

If you're not having fun riding the BTC rollercoaster, you're doing it wrong! 🎢⚡⛏️

KPS-UK77

Nov 2022 - BTC 16K Nov 2025 - BTC 120k Did we miss a bull run?

Dragon_slayer1994

Trump has ruined this space. I'm DCA out. BTC will probably be good long term

Babelight

But I thought the old lady dropped the BTC in the ocean in the end? #titanic

notboredatwork1

$7 in fees damm!!I started around the same time. I remember working a minimum wage job and managed to save up 1 BTC. I used it to buy a miner, which left me with 0.5 BTC. The miner was supposed to generate $100 a day, but it took months to arrive. By the time it finally arrived, it was only making $0.10 a day.

Frequent_Optimist

BTC didn't really shine though. It shined for 6 hours today. Gold didn't melt, it went down an insignificant amount considering its market cap. BTC market cap is 2.2T, losing 1.75T would mean end of the asset. JUST IN: Seek perspective.

crazy_lolipopp

Absolutely pathetic price action today, even for BTC standards

Tornadofob

I sold 25 BTC for $750 each

Lina-Inverse

Alt/BTC charts are dying so my preference is BTC.

daybyday209

Until proven otherwise, a nice way to make some $$$ while this PA is range bound, is shorting every rip. Going back almost the entire calendar year now, shorting after any sort of 5% rip has worked every single time. Would not surprise me in the slightest if we end the day lower than where we began. BTC PA has been utter garbage 2025 calendar year unfortunately.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; A crypto whale known as the 'Trump insider' has expanded their Bitcoin short position by $22M, bringing their total exposure to 900 BTC valued at $99.6M. The trader uses 10x leverage and currently faces an unrealized loss of $1.1M. This move follows a pattern of aggressive bearish positioning, with previous trades yielding mixed results. The trader gained fame for profiting $160M from a Bitcoin short tied to a Trump tariff announcement. Market sentiment remains mixed, with institutional optimism clashing with macroeconomic uncertainties. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Pure_shenanigans_310

1 BTC = 1 BTC and I never have enough. Every time I buy, I have more. Every time I sell, I have less. I've only had to sell in case of emergency. A lesson in liquidity...

magus-21

Yes, any token for any other token. Like, in an ETH to BTC swap, even on a DEX, it's treated like you're selling ETH for USD, and then using that USD instantly to buy BTC. Example: * Buy 1 ETH for $3000 * Taxable event: establish cost basis of $3000 * Trade 1 ETH for 0.3333 BTC * Sell 1 ETH for $4,000 (taxable event: capital gains of $1,000) * Purchase 0.3333 BTC for $4,000 (taxable event: cost basis of $120k/BTC) In this scenario, your $1,000 of capital gains gets taxed.

hawkeye224

With recent gold market cap and taking into account lost coins, BTC would have to be \~$2M to equal gold

Agitated-Bird-4333

Stablecoins offer several advantages over cash: 1. Speed and Cost: Crypto transactions, including stablecoin transfers, are often faster and cheaper than traditional bank transfers, especially for cross-border payments. 2. DeFi and Crypto Ecosystems: Stablecoins are native to blockchain networks, enabling seamless use in decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, smart contracts, or crypto exchanges without needing to exit to fiat. 3. Stability with Crypto Benefits: USDC maintains a stable value (pegged to USD) while allowing users to stay in the crypto ecosystem, avoiding the volatility of BTC or other cryptocurrencies. 4. Accessibility: Stablecoins can be used in regions with limited banking infrastructure, providing a stable store of value without needing a bank account. 5. Privacy and Control: Stablecoins offer more privacy and user control compared to traditional banking, appealing to those who prefer decentralized systems.

abx400

I know someone who lost a bunch of BTC in the Mt. Gox heist. Many years later some fraction of it was returned to him. He bought a house.

Primary_Ad9506

I am out of my positions, except BTC. I mostly hold USDC at the moment. But this is one thing, and taking it out (and paying taxes) is another thing. The question is if I should keep them in stables ready to deploy or take it out and save in my bank account (and ofc pay taxes) To stop you from wondering, I was mostly holding $Aster. That was my biggest bag. Bought it at $0.27 after I saw it at [aeternusliberi.com](http://aeternusliberi.com) (this is not a shill, this is a fact that is easily verifiable) and I sold 85% of my bag when it went to $2.1 Now it's down, and I am wondering if I should buy back almost twice the amount I held before, or should I just take a break.

ieatvegans

Not BTC. It's crabbed all year.

Various_Whereas_2667

Lots of room for growth, but don’t keep it all in BTC. I’d prefer Bittensor for being at least 10x undervalued, plus even if you believe in 4-year cycles, this is only the beginning of the intersection of AI and crypto. I’d put 4K-10k in Bittensor subnets (alpha tokens), maybe divided evenly, and I’d own TAO as well. And some Eth, staked or in a “safe ETF.”

tomsmac

Meanwhile Musk’s SpaceX just moved over $1.5 of BTC presumably to sell it.

Own-Helicopter-5558

No, you are early for the next cycle.. I started buying BTC in 2020, got the fomo in 2021 and bought a load near the top. that initial investment was underwater for a while but I setup a DCA and bought the same amount every day (and continue to now) and it's $ price is around 4 times what I actually invested in total over the 5 year period.

HelpfulPay9542

But it’s deeper than that, Bitcoin is slowly evolving from a “digital gold” narrative into a macro asset that reacts to liquidity flows, rate cuts, and market optimism. Gold still holds its defensive role, but BTC now moves like a tech-growth hybrid risk-on when markets breathe, hedge when they panic. What we’re seeing might be the new normal.

Arbiter_89

So what you're saying is you bought 2 weeks ago and you're surprised you didn't get rich yet? Anyone who has held for 5 years or more has never lost money. Lots of people have lost money selling quicker than that. Think of BTC for the long game.

National-Poet-9165

Honestly, I don’t see BTC tanking 80% this time, too many hands are holding tight.

Frequent_Optimist

The real fact of the matter is this. The rapid ups are not healthy and the rapid downs are not healthy. Saylor preaches volatility but don't blindly follow that, he's a Billionaire. At this point in time, BTC is at the mercy of the extremely manipulated $125 TRILLION (conservative figure) global market. BTC is only 16 YEARS old. Look how far the asset has come and we as a community has come. We all have so much space to grow.

tomsmac

Meanwhile I sold ISRG to add to BTC. Just jumped over $100 aftermarket after killer earnings. I’m a glutton for punishment.

devCheckingIn

I doubt it. He's spent a lot of time in the red the past couple of days. I think it's why he's had to keep piling more BTC in at a higher price.

Own-Helicopter-5558

I would be taking some of those silver gains and putting them into BTC, not the other way round. Silver has pretty much only just come out of a 15 year bear market and hasn't even beat inflation from it's 2010 ATH. Gold and BTC are better assets to hold than Silver

Carpe19717

BTC $ ETH are for investors. Moon coins are for degenerates.

namieorange

IMO Cash out. It can definitely go up. But I also asumed it would before the crash and I was left with 1/2 the money. Still in profit but big difference. You never know Come back when BTC is 30-40% less from its peak and start Dcaing