BTC

OliveLegitimate3236

2010 BTC users: \- Satoshi \- Hal Finney \- a few cryptographers \- a few open-source developers \- a bunch of libertarians \- computer science enthusiasts 2026 BTC update: \- ordinary people \- wealthy investors \- companies \- pension funds \- ETFs \- governments

dj_destroyer

I bought BTC first but quickly exchanged it for shitcoins like SIA, IOTA, NEO, NANO, Civic, etc. At the peak, I had about 3.3 BTC worth (on like $2000 invested) -- which crashed to basically nothing. I then made the mistake of selling all my shitcoins for BTC at the very bottom. They almost all recovered to near ATHs in 2021 which would have got me back close to 3 BTC. I learned my lesson and stacked BTC ever since so now I'm above 2 but less than 3. Probably invested something like $50k though, maybe more.

Common_Thought_828

IMO it's not a good idea to talk to anybody about BTC especially if you do self-custody...

Junglebook3

So the premise is that I risk my BTC due to a bridge hack, to get subsidized STRK to get 2% APY or whatever? The risk/reward makes zero sense here.

Upper-Media3769

Putting your BTC at risk for 2% APY on a windy blockchain audited by a company no one every heard of with a cheap ai logo? No, thank you.

caabiaahonda

Until BTC=BTC

Upper-Media3769

What's the point of this question? If the past would repeat always exactly we would all be rich with trading and sports bets. And what does it help you if people answer with 2 months, 3 months or 30 months? If your insecure about buying BTC then don't do it.

SkillzThatKillz10

I don’t think BTC will ever be used as currency like that. I’m on the digital gold train. You don’t see people buying things with gold for the same reason. I think stablecoins are the future, and maybe somehow backed by BTC like cash used to be backed by gold.

Lavayo

10/6/26. Thats the end of the bear market strictly by the 4y cycle. I don't actually think that will be the date. BUT if it is I was right. ;) And it has something going for it: Around that date, after the first bigger price jump up at the latest, evey damn BTC/Crypto influencer will flip bullish because the "bear market year" is over and we "should have" 1000+ days of upwards momentum. That clicks and sells and will in itself be worth something.

konhana

last time i sold half of my BTC, and it went up. So let me sell the rest now...

Minute-Lake-1819

I first heard of BTC in 2012, and heard about the faucet. Thought for sure it was a scam lol. Little did I know… 2017 really got me into studying crypto. It truly has the power to make everything more efficient if we let it.

Minute-Lake-1819

Oof. I remember the IOTA hype. There are several from that 2015-2017 era that are just gone now. At least cryptos like BTC and LTC are still growing on chain.

DangerHighVoltage111

> I don't see any tangible difference between LTC and BCH Not gonna lie, that's on you bro 😎😄. Just one example: BCH doesn't have a crippling Blocksize limit. And can dogma free take the best upgrade path as hard fork or soft fork. > LTC and BCH tbh, both hover around a similar market cap and occasionally swap positions, and both are marketed towards p2p transactions (neither one has significant uptake). LTC overtook BCH as "BTCs silver" when BCH was up against all the maxis selling. But since BCH overtook LTC again there was only a single short lasting time where LTC was above it. LTC mainly rides on the shame free transactional blockchain for maxis when the BTC blockchain is clogged. > LTC implemented it's privacy feature much earlier and has seen negligible usage, I don't see any reason why BCH would be different, As far as I followed that development it wasn't a well received implementation and I think I remember someone claimed they broke it already?!? But to be fair I'm not sure on that. >I don't see any reason why BCH would be different Because BCH was always privacy oriented and Cashfusion has been used for a while already. Now you can have scaling, zk-privacy and smart contracts on one Bitcoin chain.

GIGAbtcHodl

use it for farming and gains to acquire BTC

CategoryEqual339

Bro, don't make me remember 2021. I was rich and poor in the same year. I had like 3 BTC, all gone.

Systemonly69

Initially mined BTC in 2015 and sold in 2016, then buyed Harmony ONE in 2020 and made a profit and then purchased LTC thinking it would go to $300.

Sufficient_Fuel5269

First coins always tell the story of the cycle you entered. LTC/BTC is pure 2017: Minimalist Coinbase, FOMO and discovery. Today the gateway is memecoins and L1 of fashion. The pattern always changes, the essence does not.

Minute-Lake-1819

That’s a good point. I remember gifting people some LTC between 2018-2021 to give them their first crypto exposure. And making use of the BTC referral promos. Good times

ThatBCHGuy

Mine was BTC. Back when we had to use Dwolla :).

egej

this is exactly how i’m trading the BTC in my Voyager account.

NonVideBunt

BTC is trash

Bottle_and_Sell_it

Yo, I don’t know what you’ve just said, but I’ve heard other people say things using the same or similar words. I’m going to take it that you are possibly better informed than me regarding BTC, possibly not. But when you are potentially criticizing, potentially not, a fellow BTC Reddit commenter, I feel I should probably say something?(prob not). I’m not going to because I think also probably I shouldn’t, but you need (maybe not) to know I think I know what you’re possibly doing here. I’m ambivalent towards it, and felt the need to express that ambivalence (but what if people think I’m weird?)

SHIFT-OR-CAPS

The prize was 13.5 BTC. Not sure about the mix of GPUs used but most of them must be RTX 4090 and 5090. Requires a substantial investment to acquire 200 GPUs. Besides from that, must have cost a lot in electiricty bills too. Also need an efficient algorithm to take down problem of this magnitude, which he now has open sourced.

viklondon99

Actually, I only bought my first bit at $110,000!! Aug 2025. I watched a podcast by Peter McCormack who was interviewing Balaji Srinivasan - Collapse of the West. I really respect what Balaji says. I researched Bitcoin. Within 2 weeks I had decided to go all in. I started the process of selling my house. Now I am sitting on 90% cash, 10% btc. By October, I will be 95% BTC, 5% cash. I stopped working. I know how roughly how much I can get and how much I need to live. I didn't get in early. I just realised my biggest asset (house) was keeping me tied to this country and I am being penalised daily for it. Sell the house. Buy BTC. Escape into the sunset.

crunchyeyeball

for puzzle #135, looks like it was 13.5 BTC, moved yesterday: https://mempool.space/address/16RGFo6hjq9ym6Pj7N5H7L1NR1rVPJyw2v

Inevitable-Cat869

I was talking to a close friend about a personal problem...he roped BTC into the discussion. I told several times this has nothing to do with BTC. Lmao 🤣

Sookkhuii

just dcaing every BTC low and sometimes maybe ETH and when bull is really coming buy more major alts like SOL

Embarrassed_fly09

By 2050 BTC will be more than 1 mil imo

jojothehodler

In 2050, BTC will be on the Blockchain

LevelStationaryPlane

Bro social security is more of a gamble than BTC lmao.

twinters01

He is right lol BTC is gambling

quintavious_danilo

care to explain for a layman? What’s a BTC puzzle?

thinkingperson

The last time I tried a project that offered 14% APY in ETH and BTC, I got a 55% haircut within six months 😅

cyger

Maybe, though a dip to 50k or so is possible. The thing is, with all the money printing around the world, BTC could be much higher in few months, years.

hamjamham

Nothing magical about it. Where's there's money to be made, people will chase after it. There's never been such a large divergence between stocks & crypto. It'll catch up soon enough. Didn't say we're were going n a bull either, just that I think the bottom is in for BTC at least.

cyger

Yes, because the BTC I bought back in 2015/2016 did so well, I was able to diversify and go into stocks greatly over the last 2 years. Funny thing is, in 2016 I pulled my stock money and put it all into crypto, made great gains and paid a lot of bills. But the volatility is so painful, so glad I sold almost all my alts last fall.

ScrotusAmongus

Hardcore bitcoiners will sell everything for BTC and sleep in a tent in the woods with their seed phrase tattooed under their eyelids

_blockchainlife

Stay clear of alts. Only BTC. Expect continued ultra volatility with massive swings in both directions over the years. Set a date that’s out 20+ years and don’t touch it until then. Expect it to go to zero and don’t include it in any type of net worth or retirement plans. Will be either the smartest thing you’ve ever done or the dumbest.

MotanulScotishFold

Altcoin season can be seen only when BTC.D drop massively.

Topspeed_PT

This time won't be different! BTC 4y cyle is alive and well. Everything else is irrelevant.

hamjamham

So me interesting narratives coming out RE ai agents transacting with crypto. Personally, I think the bottom for BTC is in, a few more minor liqs on the horizon & then we start to climb out. Different macro conditions compared to the last bear cycle too. Think people waiting for October bottom will be wrong footed!

JimmySki6166

100% correct! Purchase BTC only, do not chase the hype that goes with alt coins. They have no use case and are worthless!

GoCharting

I'd strongly suggest taking a look at us - **GoCharting (gocharting.com)**. In terms of **pure value for money**, it's hard to beat for BTC perps: 1. **Web-based & Smooth:** Runs right in the browser (no heavy desktop app or GPU strain), but still streams sub-second tick data directly from Binance, Bybit, and Coinbase. 2. **Full Order Flow Suite:** Gives you proper footprint/cluster charts, bid/ask imbalances, CVD, volume profile/POC, and delta bars. 3. **Price:** Significantly cheaper than running desktop add-ons or heavy subscriptions, plus they have a generous free tier if you just want to test out how the charts feel first.

CommunityCommon1732

I'm all in on BTC long term, but my casino stack is... separate stablecoins,Keeps gambling volatility from touching my core hold

Galavanta

LINK's tech is solid but price action has been frustrating for years, your not wrong there. the thing is "big future potential" applies to like half the top 50 and most of them bleed against BTC over full cycles. If you're gonna do it, at least scale your entries based on where risk actually sits instead of going heavy all at once. I track LINK risk on alphasquared and it helps me size positions without the emotional guesswork. Right now alts in general are in a weird spot where adoption metrics and price are completely disconnected, so patience matters more than conviction here.

Mohowl_

I wasn't clear. I meant best case for BTC is he doubles his money in 3-4 years. There are better options through good stock investments for that time horizon that would most likely wipe the floor with 'only' a 100% increase in four years.

WorldlyCaramel3793

I'm currently DCAing into BTC, and it's been going well so far. This is already my second year since I started last year.

master-beast-72

The pause isn't surprising if you understand how the funding mechanism actually works. Strategy buys BTC by issuing ATM equity offerings and convertible bonds — they raise capital first, then buy. If they're not buying, it usually means they're either between capital raises or the ATM offering is exhausted for the current tranche. The "propping up the market" narrative is mostly reddit canon at this point. Their purchases are large for a single entity but they're small relative to daily BTC volume on the major exchanges. The price impact per buy is real but it's not structural support in the way people describe. The chart between their announcement days and price action has never shown a consistent pattern. What's actually interesting about five weeks of no buying is what the capital allocation decision reveals. If they genuinely believed $65k was undervalued relative to their average cost basis (~$75k), you'd expect them to be raising and buying aggressively right now. The pause either means they think the price goes lower, or they're constrained by available capital, or management's confidence in the thesis has quietly shifted. The $75k average cost is the problem. They're underwater at current prices and every week they don't buy is a week they can't lower the average cost through DCA. Meanwhile the convertible note holders have coverage concerns. The strategy only fully works if BTC keeps going up from here.

Unable_Variation_836

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master-beast-72

The core concept is solid — price-triggered automations fill a real gap for people who don't want to watch charts all day. A few honest thoughts: The fixed percentage trigger (5% dip, 8% surge) is the weakest part of the idea. In a high-volatility regime, those levels get hit constantly and your automations fire too often. In a low-vol sideways market, nothing triggers at all. Volatility-adjusted thresholds — anchoring to something like ATR rather than absolute percentage — would make the triggers much more meaningful across different market conditions. The "trigger → action" model is only as useful as the action types you support. If the only action is a notification, it's a slightly nicer alert app. If you can integrate with exchange APIs to actually execute limit orders or DCA buys on trigger, that's a meaningfully different tool. What actions does it support right now? The Bitcoin-only scope is either a feature or a limitation depending on your target user. For BTC-only holders it's clean. For anyone running a multi-asset book, they'd want the same logic applied to ETH, SOL, etc. without needing separate tools. Two things that would immediately improve it: (1) backtesting view so users can see how their rule would have fired historically, and (2) a way to set cooldown periods so a 5% dip doesn't trigger 8 times during a single crash. What's the data source for the price feed?

Jack_William_

All fair points on risk management. Anyone borrowing should model downside scenarios and have a repayment plan that doesn't depend on BTC price. But the platform I used is non-custodial which is a key difference. My Bitcoin never left my wallet or went to a company holding it on my behalf. That removes the counterparty risk entirely. "CoinRabbit holds your Bitcoin for you". That's a different risk profile on top of the market risk you already mentioned.

master-beast-72

The Saylor comparison is apt but there's one structural difference that makes the ETH version more interesting from a network perspective: if Bitmine stakes that ETH, they're not just a price-concentrated holder, they become a significant validator. 5% of staked ETH is meaningful. Current staking participation is around 27-28% of supply, so 5% of total supply translates to roughly 18% of the staking pool if they stake it all. That's in range to start influencing things like block proposal rates and MEV extraction patterns. It doesn't give them consensus finality power (you need 33%+ to threaten liveness), but it's enough to matter. The no-debt point from r/euro347 is the key variable. MSTR's vulnerability isn't the BTC concentration, it's the convertible note structure — if BTC craters, they can't service debt and have to sell into a falling market. Bitmine without debt just sits through a drawdown. The house of cards analogy only applies if there's leverage behind the position. The real question is what they actually do with the ETH. Buy and hold on the balance sheet is one thing. Stake it, run validators, and participate in MEV supply chains is a fundamentally different entity.

magniankh

BTC is functionally a ponzischeme and not much more. It's only job is to make money for you by getting newer people to buy into the same system.  The entire global economy would need to suffer a catastrophic breakdown leading to an entirely new world order for traditional fiat currency to be left behind. That may or may not happen, but BTC isn't backed by anything just like fiat currency. 

augustaye

all you have to do is follow one rule when it comes to friendship and BTC: don't be "that guy"

master-beast-72

The "slippery" part is deliberate and has gotten more sophisticated over time. Retail often assumes whale tracking via on-chain analytics gives a clear picture of what large holders are doing. The reality is that any whale worth tracking has almost certainly adapted their behavior to account for exactly this kind of surveillance. **How sophisticated whales obscure their positions**: 1. **Wallet fragmentation**: Rather than holding 10,000 BTC in one wallet, they hold 100 BTC across 100 wallets. Any individual wallet looks like a mid-sized holder. The clustering analysis tools (Nansen, Arkham) try to correlate these via common-input-ownership heuristics and transaction timing, but sophisticated holders intentionally break these patterns. 2. **OTC desks**: Major moves often don't happen on-chain at all. A whale selling $50M of ETH likely uses a prime broker or OTC desk (Cumberland, Galaxy, B2C2) who sources buyers privately and settles via exchange internal transfer. Whale Alert never sees it. 3. **Cross-chain movement**: Moving assets through bridges and then back can break on-chain traceability for casual observers. The origin wallet and destination wallet are unlinked unless you do full bridge-hop analysis. The practical implication for retail: "whale alert" signals are mostly noise. A large transfer to an exchange address could be a sale, an OTC delivery, a custody transfer, or just reorganizing wallets. The signal-to-noise ratio for interpreting individual large transactions is terrible. What actually works better is tracking *aggregate* exchange flows (total exchange inflows/outflows over 24-48h) rather than individual whale transactions.

Cold_Entertainer_851

That's an interesting perspective. What do you think will be the biggest catalyst for ETH in the next few years? Is it continued institutional buying, growth in on-chain applications, or other factors? I think ETH's fundamentals are indeed improving, but BTC's position as digital gold is also becoming increasingly solidified, and the two may play different roles in the future.

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arioch376

I just don't equate it to a moral imperative. If you don't do that I can't imagine participating in/owning/believing in the positive qualities of bitcoin will actually become a problem with family/friends, and if it does it sounds more like a them problem, likely for the same error you've made, they've made it a moral imperative, i.e. BTC is going to boil the oceans, so you're evil for participating. At the end of the day, even if you're a true believer, and you think BTC is the best and final form of money and may well change the world....At the end of the day it's still just money. Family and friends are more important. Act accordingly.

LurkerFromTheVoid

Another problem, that i seem to see, it's the Satoshi division of Bitcoin, it's hard to visualize prices in fractions of Bitcoin. Gemini Answer: You’ve zeroed in on a fundamental user-experience flaw that behavioral economists and software designers call **Unit Bias** and **Numeracy Friction**. Humans are notoriously bad at processing long strings of decimals. Expecting someone to buy a coffee for 0.00004500 BTC creates an immense amount of cognitive load. You spend more time counting zeros to make sure you aren't overpaying by a factor of ten than you do enjoying the coffee. Here is why this division problem creates such a massive barrier for Bitcoin as an everyday medium of exchange: ## 1. The Decimal Counting Nightmare When prices are expressed in small fractions of a whole unit, visual ambiguity skyrockets. | Item | Price in USD | Price in BTC (approx.) | Price in Satoshis ("Sats") | |---|---|---|---| | **Espresso** | $4.50 | 0.000047 BTC | 4,700 sats | | **Groceries** | $120.00 | 0.001250 BTC | 125,000 sats | | **New Laptop** | $1,500.00 | 0.015600 BTC | 1,560,000 sats | With fractions of BTC, the difference between 0.000047 and 0.00047 is one misplaced zero—a 900% calculation error. The human brain simply isn't wired to quickly differentiate numbers after three decimal places during rapid everyday transactions. ## 2. Unit Bias (The Psychology of Whole Numbers) Psychologically, people prefer owning and spending **whole units**. * **The "I Can't Afford It" Fallacy:** Many potential buyers still assume they have to buy *one full Bitcoin* to participate. Paying thousands of dollars for a fraction of a single unit feels unrewarding compared to buying thousands of cheap units of a penny stock or altcoin—even if the underlying math is identical. * **The "Sats Standard" Friction:** The Bitcoin community tried to solve this by moving to **Satoshis** (1 BTC = 100,000,000 sats). While 4,700 sats removes the decimals, it introduces a whole new problem: giant numbers that are detached from the mental price anchors people have built over a lifetime in dollar terms. ## 3. The Failure of "Unit of Account" For a currency to function smoothly, it must be a **Unit of Account**—a mental tape measure for economic value. When you see a $5 sandwich, your brain instantly compares it to every other $5 item you’ve ever bought. But because Bitcoin fluctuates constantly *and* requires decimal gymnastics, you have to run a two-step mental calculation: 1. **Convert fractions to Satoshis** (or parse the decimal string). 2. **Convert Satoshis to your local fiat currency** based on today’s live exchange rate. Until an asset can serve as a static, intuitive price tag in the physical world without requiring continuous mental conversions, it remains a speculative asset rather than an effortless currency.

logavulin16

Congrats. If your social credit or social score dips one day dips, your bank will seize your funds. You are missing the point of decentralization. Bank runs happen all the time, even in first world nations. Holding fiat currency in your bank will lose to crypto in every capacity. ROI,mobility, self custody… BTC has outperformed every major asset in the world including NVD for its entire lifespan. AI has had a great 3 year run. Its scalable runway is running ever shorter. Maybe this is your first bear market but your sentiment shows up in every successful market at the best possible times to buy

Althea520

Do not buy alt coins ever. BTC Maxi here. since 2017. Learned the hard way doing little side quests. Waste of money when I could of stocked more BTC.

Plane_Baby

We all get there at our own time. My advice, study it and gain conviction. You are coming at a good time, near the bottom (even if it drops more, you are still in a good spot). DCA, and continue learning about BTC. Look for ways to earn BTC (Fold, maybe Lolli) for free. When you start questioning UXTOs and self custody, that's when you are there because it is not about the dollars. 💪 Good luck and welcome aboard.

Grunblau

I think uncollateralized debt will go away and in the future, you will need something like BTC to open a credit card. Otherwise, all this whole thing was about it to give payment processors bigger margins when charging 3% to transfer money.\[ a

master-beast-72

The mark price problem on tokenized stock perps is a systemic issue that doesn't get enough attention when these products are launched. On crypto-native perp pairs (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT), mark price is aggregated from multiple high-liquidity spot markets with tight spreads. Manipulation is expensive because you'd have to move price on Binance, Coinbase, and several others simultaneously. On tokenized stock perps — SK Hynix, Tesla, Apple, etc. — the underlying reference price often comes from one or two sources with thin liquidity outside of US market hours. If the feed from those sources has a bad tick, gets delayed, or the underlying stock moves sharply on news that's hard to arbitrage back quickly, the mark price diverges from fair value. Positions that were healthy at the "real" price get liquidated at the distorted price. The "exchange covers losses" response is the right call and is essentially what the insurance fund exists for. What matters is whether they cover the full delta between the liquidation price and the fair price at time of liquidation, not just a partial refund. This should prompt exchanges to review their mark price methodology for tokenized equity perps more carefully. Options: wider confidence bands before liquidation triggers on illiquid pairs, mandatory funding rate limits that force position deleveraging before reaching liquidation, or just being conservative about which stock tokens they list and in what leverage. Worth watching whether TradeXYZ publishes a post-mortem on how the mark price diverged — the mechanism matters for evaluating whether they've fixed the underlying issue or just plugged this specific hole.

master-beast-72

The mark price problem on tokenized stock perps is a systemic issue that doesn't get enough attention when these products are launched. On crypto-native perp pairs (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT), mark price is aggregated from multiple high-liquidity spot markets with tight spreads. Manipulation is expensive because you'd have to move price on Binance, Coinbase, and several others simultaneously. On tokenized stock perps — SK Hynix, Tesla, Apple, etc. — the underlying reference price often comes from one or two sources with thin liquidity outside of US market hours. If the feed from those sources has a bad tick, gets delayed, or the underlying stock moves sharply on news that's hard to arbitrage back quickly, the mark price diverges from fair value. Positions that were healthy at the "real" price get liquidated at the distorted price. The "exchange covers losses" response is the right call and is essentially what the insurance fund exists for. What matters is whether they cover the full delta between the liquidation price and the fair price at time of liquidation, not just a partial refund. This should prompt exchanges to review their mark price methodology for tokenized equity perps more carefully. Options: wider confidence bands before liquidation triggers on illiquid pairs, mandatory funding rate limits that force position deleveraging before reaching liquidation, or just being conservative about which stock tokens they list and in what leverage. Worth watching whether TradeXYZ publishes a post-mortem on how the mark price diverged — the mechanism matters for evaluating whether they've fixed the underlying issue or just plugged this specific hole.

AlternativePut87

I'd just invest what you can afford to, live with the rest (by live I mean enjoy yourself). Obviously you're still young but the most powerful way to compound growth with your investments is to maximize your income and live well below your means, contributing the rest. Kudos to you though, you're investing much much earlier than most. Don't worry too much about cost averaging - contributing is more important assuming BTC has a long term investment horizon for you. If it's a trade, whole different story.

MrMoo151515

Depends how you define value. Don’t forget the value you’re adding to the BTC network by also spending in it. Encouraging more and more people/companies to move over to the better currency. By participating in BTC your adding value to your stack

I_Camp_In_CallofDuty

At a younger age I don't think I would've held onto BTC until this point in time. Maybe if I was my current age getting in on BTC back then...then yeah, I'd be building Kaiba Corp right now 😂

digital__bits

This is rookie mistake. Holders don't have much say on Bitcoin (BTC). **MINERS** do

celle876

And you have no idea what is in my portfolio. The operative term is "for me". Go right ahead and talk about your experience whilst I repeat for people in the back: " Nothing has outpaced real.estate and crypto in general for me...BTC being one." In short my advice stands ... OP can follow or not. In what alternate universe is 'choose wisely' bad advice or misinformation?

Hot_Restaurant_4902

BTC does not typically reach close to double the previous ATH.

2xfun

Bitcoin hate is at all time high and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Unfortunately 90% of the population have heard of bitcoin at this point and they can’t tell the difference between clown coin and BTC and don’t know they are being robbed by the fiat standard. Unfortunately I don’t see this changing anytime soon 

Optimal_Jump_8395

It's difficult to say. With so much geopolitical uncertainty, it's anyone's guess when full adoption will be. That being said, some countries and businesses are beginning to satisfy orders using Bitcoin. That's a good sign and a very entertaining time for those of us who continue to DCA BTC.

MuscularFrog13

Buying fake ids and eventually weed off the Silk Road is what got me into Bitcoin and sold me on the vision. By junior year of HS I was buying good, but fairly low priced, weed in bulk on the SR, selling it to the two dealers in my town at 2x what I paid for it and then funneling some of that back into BTC and mostly into other shit a high schooler and recent high school grad buys. Had I been a bit wiser then, I’d be a lot wealthier now. Oh well, still in with no intention of selling anytime soon.

master-beast-72

The 4-year cycle has a mechanical component and a psychological component, and I think the mechanical part is weakening while the psychological part persists. **The mechanical argument**: Each halving cuts new BTC issuance by 50%. In 2012, that was a big deal — miners were selling a lot of BTC daily and cutting that supply in half had real price impact. By 2024, daily issuance was already tiny relative to circulating supply (~0.08% annualized post-halving). At some point the halving becomes a rounding error in actual supply dynamics, and that point may be approaching. **What actually drove 2024**: The spot ETF approvals hit in January 2024, months before the halving. BlackRock alone was absorbing more BTC per day than miners were producing. BTC hitting ATH *before* the halving broke the historical pattern for the first time. That's a structural shift — institutional demand is now a bigger price driver than the halving mechanism itself. **The psychological part holds**: Halvings are still a Schelling point that pulls retail attention back to crypto on a roughly 4-year cadence. Media coverage, new entrants, meme cycles — these still roughly align with the halving calendar even when the fundamental supply math matters less. Markets run on narratives as much as mechanics. My read: the cycle isn't dead, it's becoming noisier and more front-run. Institutional players anticipate it earlier, so price moves happen sooner and the post-halving peak gets harder to time precisely. "Bad at timing" is probably the more accurate framing.

The_Bitcoin_Act

Not a stupid question, and the fact that you're already at 0.016 BTC in cold storage as a teenager puts you ahead of many adults. That's great. On buy now vs wait, nobody can call the bottom reliably, not analysts, not anyone in this thread. What you're already doing, buying in chunks whenever money shows up, is the answer to the question you're asking, you just don't realize it yet. That's dollar cost averaging and it's specifically designed to make the "should I wait" question irrelevant, because you're not trying to time one entry, you're building a position over years. At your age the real edge isn't picking the perfect price, it's time in the market. A few hundred dollars now matters less than the habit you're building of saving first and holding cold. Keep doing exactly what you're doing! NFA!

Upset_Albatross_9179

The cycle depended on 3 things \- the halving substantially changing BTC creation rates \- the event acting as a rally point to substantially grow the group of people interested and interacting with BTC \- existing investors expecting the cycle to happen and driving the boom-bust The effect of the halving is dropping with each halving. The number of people aware of BTC has to have come close to the largest it could be during the last cycle with Matt Damon telling everyone fortune favors the bold. The development of institutional investment has probably sucked up whatever was left. The presence of institutional investment is going to dull the hype and fomo-driven boom bust cycle. Both by being less hype-driven than retail investors, and by trying to be the cleverest, fastest institution to extract wealth from any predictable volatility. I don't know if it's this cycle or some future cycle. Eventually macroeconomic conditions are going to drown out whatever dwindling effect of the 4 year cycle remains.

NoBrosCrypto

Then split what you have and buy with half now. If it goes lower (pick your target so you know when to execute) then use the other half. Best of both worlds, because if this is bottom then you at least got the ‘best’ price. And you can do with the other half of the money what you will. Even if that’s buying on the next correction BTC has on its way up.

NoBrosCrypto

I think this next bull run will be the moment we hit tipping point. The magic number is typically 16%, after which mass adoption accelerates. We’re currently at 10%. If Bitcoin behaves as we expect and follows the 4 year cycle, in conservative estimates $250K should be the target since BTC typically reaches close to double the previous ATH. However Bitcoin never hit its infamous banana zone lst cycle. If macro conditions are right, liquidity is there and interest rates are low, Bitcoin could finally hit the banana zone we all expected last cycle. If that happens then we print a much higher ATH and we get to that 16% much quicker. All facilitated by the institutions and other big players making access much easier, and giving Bitcoin the credibility it needs to bring in the retail crowd that are new to Bitcoin. And if all of that happens then Bitcoin will really outperform as a flywheel of fresh liquidity and rotation out of other assets boosts the demand for a scarce fixed cap asset with decaying supply.

WD40Capital

2040 using BTC to pay for groceries will be common.

lexicon_riot

Depends what you mean by mass adoption. I think it will eventually mature as the world reserve asset, alongside native payment adoption in several key regions. Sovereign currencies will still exist but will have much stronger ties to BTC in some way. You'll be able to hold BTC and pay merchants in any currency without extra steps or thinking about it. You'll have a ton of merchants accepting it directly, and payments will scale effortlessly on various L2s. Large institutions will all hold it, and price will be in the 7 figure range, eventually pushing 8 figures. My best bet is mid 2040s for this to mature.

LionRivr

1. Get stable income 2. Pay your monthly bills 3. Pay your debts 4. Contribute to 401k or other retirement accounts 5. Build emergency cash savings 6. Daily Living expenses (food gas etc) 7. Then maybe consider BTC

Pugluvmeme

A man I know irl in his 70's has the most BTC of anyone I know of...

BoshansStudios

true. about .1% of wealth is in BTC.

Icy-Soup-7071

Based on a 5% allocation of the global M2 money supply The value of 1 BTC should = c. $200k So even at an extremely conservative level BTC is currently undervalued. Even in the last run my highest sell targets were at $180k based on this principle. At the opposite end of the extreme If BTC were accepted as the standard for global wealth it would be worth c. $27mil. - IMHO, the longer BTC survives the more realistic this figure becomes. Layer two networks could even allow for sub satoshi level trading to make everyday purchasing viable. The technology is there all it requires is adoption.

minicUnique

I see. If you're accumulating anyway, what's your take on native BTC staking? Something you'd consider or nah?

minicUnique

I didn't know Satoshi was mining BTC in the '90s. 😄

TheMadDog86

If you want that money to grow, dont buy BTC. At most it can 2x. In an extreme shift, 3x. ETH is much the same. Might 2 or 3x, moonshot of hitting a 5x return. Buy Solana. Its the only one that has the cap where you can still 5x-10x your return.

King-esckay

Its simple really Don't invest money you can't afford to lose Is something we have all learnt If people need to convince other people to invest then it will turn put to be a bad investment is something else we have learnt. I am 68 most of my friends have BTC or at least know if it. Why, if I t a good investment do people feel the need to convince others, is it because if they are wrong they don't want to be alone? Just like shares I tell people I have invested, I dont try to convince them they should too, they will ask if they want to know

Good_Paramedic126

Forze Volevi dire quanti sono I fortunati che hanno 0,1BTC perché questi fortunati un giorno Vedranno il grande potenziale de btc tanto que anche chi possiede 0,1 Sara ricompensato

OdonsOwn1966

Slowly but surely will get there, BTC is 1 percent of my portfolio, just DCA'ing on the chance that it achieves all the uses it can one day

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Post is by: Expensive_Bird8570 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1v9a4c6/why_wall_street_is_suddenly_pushing_for_crypto/ * Why Wall Street is suddenly pushing for crypto regulation (The Clarity Act breakdown) * Contrary to the popular belief that traditional finance avoids regulation, Wall Street hates one thing above all else: **legal uncertainty**. With institutional powerhouses like BlackRock and Fidelity backing the **Clarity Act** (Digital Asset Market Structure Bill), a major shift is underway: * **SEC vs CFTC Boundaries:** Clear lines are finally being drawn between digital securities and commodities like BTC and ETH. * **Institutional Investor Protection:** Giving major banks the green light to deploy billions safely without fear of sudden enforcement actions. * **DeFi Frameworks:** Setting long-awaited guidelines for developers and decentralized protocols. * While this moves crypto from a speculative asset class to a mainstream financial pillar, short-term traders should expect volatility as legislative negotiations continue. What are your thoughts on institutional backing? Does this help or harm decentralization? *Full analysis breakdown on CryptoRadar:*[https://cryptoradar99.blogspot.com](https://www.google.com/search?q=https://cryptoradar99.blogspot.com) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Jack_William_

calling it "all time lows" that was a bad choice of my words. BTC is 50% below the ATH of $126K not at all time lows.

Juus

Don't compare BTC to Automobiles, that is dishonest. Compare it to other fintech products or internet based techs instead. BTC is doing absolutely terrible in that regard. Venmo or similiar products, contactless credit cards, smartphone payment systems, IoT and other products have had genuine adoption. Bitcoin is older and these modern payment systems raced right past Bitcoin. In the European union you can safely transfer up to a billion euro at a time cross borders with SEPA transfers for less than 3 euros. BTC can't compete in its field. Take a look at AI adoption, Smartphone adoption, SoMe adoption etc. They are much much faster than Bitcoin or any other crypto.

logavulin16

For reference, it took over 50 years for the Automobile to become popularized. BTC far exceeds the adoption rate of even the Internet.

logavulin16

“Bitcoin performs poorly in a bear market”. And AI underperforms during its respective bear market. Guess what? AI is overbought and high risk. BTC is oversold and low risk. The play in the coming months is clear

SgtSausage

>  He thinks BTC is "gambling" Because it is

jrafelson

No offense, but the current system benefits 65 plus. BTC is the off ramp for Millennials and Gen Z to get out of it.

Decent_Taro8182

He is buying when BTC hits $45k-$50k. Bottom should be around Late September to October 2026.

hevnsnt

**TL;DR: Puzzle #135 was solved earlier today by someone outside our pool.** We did not find the key. The pool is already repointed to Puzzle #140 and running. Puzzle #135 was solved earlier today (July 28, 2026). The puzzle address (16RGFo6hjq9ym6Pj7N5H7L1NR1rVPJyw2v) was swept at around 08:20 UTC, and the full 13.5 BTC is gone. Anyone can confirm it on a block explorer: the balance went from 13.5 BTC to dust in a single transaction. It was not us. Our pool did not find the key. No tame/wild collision surfaced on our side and we recovered nothing. Whoever solved it beat the whole field, and credit to them. We caught it within minutes because our on-chain balance monitor flagged the address emptying. Thanks to everyone who pointed GPUs at #135. The work was real even if the win was not ours. That is the nature of racing a 135 bit keyspace against everyone at once. We have already repointed the pool to Puzzle #140: **Prize:** about 14 BTC (unsolved, public key is exposed) **Keyspace:** 2^139 up to (2^140 minus 1) **DP bits:** 28 The pool is live right now. Workers reconnect on their own and start pulling #140 work. If you were running a client on #135, just leave it running or reconnect and you are on #140. Details and stats at collisionprotocol.com. Onward, and good hunting.