BTC

Ok_Improvement8487

I just threw some money in BTC for fun and holding it, but when you look at all the posts it's all about holding. There needs to be more emphasis on using it, or getting the system to that point, if people want the value to actually increase substantially.

UtahImTaller

I remember back in the day I told my friend I turned 5k into 20k. That was during the peak of a bull season. He put a few hundred in and the market corrected. He's very skeptical of BTC or Crypto and I imagine most people see the people making money as magic people who must know something they don't.  Truth is we just bought in months or years ago when nobody besides the community is talking about it.

TheDTYP

Yeah. Spot crypto and prediction markets are separate. On my side prediction markets have been $0 commission lately (the exchange still charges per contract), and spot crypto is $0 commission too but there's a trading fee. I didn't do prediction markets before. Saw moomoo roll it out and grabbed a few BTC upside contracts. Kind of fun, made a little.

Awkward_Priority5794

The main reason of me liquidating BTC is the price behaviour and return mimic a x2 leveraged play on Russell 3000 and Nasdaq .

Awkward_Priority5794

I liquidated all my BTC and went into memory stocks last year and made 250%. Now the hottest stock is LLY and waiting for mkt crash to load .

Mysterious_Brief3175

My grandmother /grandfather wanted to buy BTC in 2006 and their financial advisor said don’t buy it. My grandfather was prepared to spend 60k in 06…… wtf financial advisor

CoinEditionIndonesia

I think a lot of people initially discover Bitcoin because of its price potential, but what makes it interesting beyond speculation is the technology behind it.. The fixed supply, self-custody, and ability to trnsfer value without relying on traditional intermediaries are pretty compelling once you understand how they work. Curious how many people here bought their first BTC for the potential gains but ended up staying because of the fundamentals.

GalaxyDefender1x

I realized stupid people rule the world, and they believe Bitcoin has value. You're always told, "Never argue with stupid people." So I started buying BTC. Now I need more stupid people to buy BTC so the price can go up, because so far, I've only lost money on it.

Salty-Technician-633

The French government seeing you swap BTC to USDC: "Is that the sweet scent of taxable revenue I smell?

RealEbb6223

Spending BTC on coffee and then having to think about cost basis and taxes is ridiculous. Give me stablecoins for payments and BTC for holding

TheCurlyHomeCook

To help me understand - is this showing the value of these assets in BTC over time? As in how much they were worth in BTC?

shpeucher

At 1M it’s penny sat ($0.01/sat) At that moment it will start being referenced in SAT price. The news will show the ticker as SAT instead of BTC. It will be $0.01 for the next hundred years or whatever, and that’s when the world will recognize the price as finally stable instead of how volatile it is now

Longjumping-Link-455

My dad gave me $200 and said to use it for BTC.

SmellyCummies

In 2011, back when I was a fat fuck who drank all the time and did a bunch of coke with friends, hated where my life was headed at the time. Despite being a party boy, I was always decent at saving my money. Maybe had about 5k in my bank account. Not a massive amount, but considering I would buy cocaine every weekend and snort nose beers the size of a flaccid porn dick with a group of friends who was also doing the same thing, it was quite a bit. I was higher than Shaq titties one night, and went down a rabbit hole reading about Bitcoin. I hated how my life was going at the time, abs made a desperate attempt to improve my financial situation. My idea was to sell when it went up. It spiked up to almost 20k, and I held onto it thinking I would make so much more. It dropped. Almost down to like 3-4k over time. I was devastated. I almost sold around that time, but figured I would wait and pray that it goes high again. Between that moment and the time it eventually did go higher, I had read too many things, watched too many videos, and was converted into a BTC enthusiast. I still have that BTC, never sold any yet, and I've acquired much more since then. The best decision I've ever made.

frownface84

Nothing really. People have tried; that's why other chains like SOL, POLY & XRP exist. But they're not universally accepted. As competing chains & currencies die off only the top handful will survive. BTC and ETH will always survive but having to pay $3-4 to make a transaction means it'll never supplant fiat/bank transfers/credit cards etc. That was always a pipedream for the crypto community. If i go to the cafe and buy a cup of coffee for $5, i pay $5. I don't want to pay $5 + some unknown amount of fee between $1-$5 depending on how fast/likely i want my payment to go through. that's just nuts. When transacting large values; then a few dollars in gas is fine and NBD; but not for day to day transactions.

LaminatedDenimJeans

That would be accurate if a transaction didn’t take 15 minutes. Some places take bitcoin for payment, but it’s not practical to wait so long to complete a transaction when you can just sell it and then spend the cash when it’s available. Until they speed up the transaction speed, it’s not going to be more common to purchase stuff with BTC. HFDL right now, or what are you doing? Do you not like making a profit or do you just enjoy being a part of crypto for the love of the game?

timeonmyhandz

Was researching blockchain usage for software licensing control use.. Bought some BTC to experience the environment. And just kept it.

perma_banned2025

If $35k happens I'm selling everything but my BTC and buying more. There will be no tears

thib_

in some cases, if you make a BTC->USDC->EUR transaction, there is a risk of double taxation. Some stablecoins like USDe might not be affected (falls under ART rules)

No-Masterpiece2246

They have a fair amount of discretion when rebalancing ETF shares. They don't have to buy BTC when they issue more shares. Just adhere to accounting requirements and keep the shares/coins balance roughly accurate. Also, they're Blackrock. No way would the SEC or CFTC ever prosecute them if/when they violate the rules. They have more money than God.

Neither_Plan_8387

He spoke 39 times against BTC since 2013. If you invest $1 in BTC per every such event, $39 in total, today you'd have about **$4000**. Proof [https://uphold.com/dca-calculator?dateStart=2013-08&initial=2.8&repeat=365](https://uphold.com/dca-calculator?dateStart=2013-08&initial=2.8&repeat=365)

Tobias_CBC

A few basis points of cuts do not automatically send equity money into Bitcoin. I’d look for falling real yields, easier dollar liquidity and actual BTC inflows before calling it a rotation, because cuts can also signal weaker growth. What evidence would make you change that view?

Tobias_CBC

If you only need occasional BTC-to-currency conversions, your existing calculator can do it without another app: BTC amount × the current price in that currency. The catch is updating the rate yourself, and the result won’t include fees or spread. Do you need live-rate updates, or just the conversion maths?

Tobias_CBC

If you’re in the US, I’d consider Bitrefill’s Apple gift cards for buying directly from Apple. Check the card premium, network fee, region and redemption limits before committing; gift cards are generally non-refundable. Paying with BTC is not automatically tax-free, so check your local treatment separately.

Tobias_CBC

Chainalysis’s 2026 report estimates at least $154bn in illicit crypto receipts for 2025, with 84% of illicit volume in stablecoins—not a Bitcoin-only figure. Payment volume also isn’t the same as sustained demand to hold BTC. Are you trying to estimate payment usage or longer-term holdings?

Silver_Corgi1848

Freelancer here, two overseas clients pay me in USDC because a wire takes days and eats a chunk in fees. That's the one case where it actually beats the bank. For regular stuff I just cash out to a card, I've never paid for anything directly with BTC. In the US every purchase counts as a taxable sale, so a coffee turns into capital gains paperwork. Nobody wants that.

nugymmer

Most of them are just desperate believers. It's like a cult. They take the BTC and sell you some pathetic fairytale for you to believe in. People pay millions for a lie. Yep. Just a lie is all she wrote.

nugymmer

It was so useless that it went from $17k to just over $120k. And HEX? It was such a great BTC killer that it got killed by BTC. Floating and bloating. Gone and forgotten.

nugymmer

Yep and I was a bellend for believing in the trash of crypto. I still do, certain coins, even though they underperform there is still a future, right? BTC is the only one worth a fuck to be honest.

Ok_Wrongdoer_4308

So my 7+ BTC may help me get through retirement…

tenor_tymir

That’s far from negative. BTC never closed green 3 months in a row in a bear market. That’s just realistic.

nomorespamplz

And see how well BTC works for anything 🤷‍♂️

voyeur669

So they expect BTC to trade at $223k in 2037. I thought people here were a lot more bullish than this.

AutoModerator

Post is by: everstake and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1xazong/88987_btc_were_added_to_the_10_to_10k_btc_wallets/ The 10 to 10K BTC wallets quietly hit their highest combined balance since April Data says the 10 to 10K BTC wallets added roughly 88,987 BTC since September 19th and now hold more than 13.69M BTC combined, a six month high. No announcement, no countdown, no thread. Just balances on chain doing what balances do. As always, wallets are not people, and the data cannot tell us who is behind it. We are only sharing the on chain numbers, nothing about price. Data from Santiment. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

SmellyCummies

I convinced a friend to buy some about 8 or so years ago. He spent $5,000. He was thrilled when his money eventually doubled over time, but then it started to drop. He was constantly pestering me about why it was dropping. He ended up having me sell his BTC for him at around $7,200. To this day he will still bring it up, about how much money he "could have lost on that shit". If he still had that BTC today, it would have been worth $27,000ish. I love the look on his face when I bring that up. You can see a brief moment of collapsing regret, only for him to quickly rebuttal with something like "Yeah but it could also be worth nothing by next week". Oh well, can't convince the stubborn. And the majority of people I encounter who are against it say it's either a scam or "too confusing". Which, to be fair, it can be quite confusing, but they also don't want to take the time to read about any of it.

Equity_GOD

Compound return 10%.. Meanwhile BTC: -25.1% YTD lol

Grizly2000

Aren't people using BTC globally offline with pagers or old phones? Bitcoins zero counterparty risk. Quantum well it effects normal banks too so. I believe in BTC more then $ HODL

jonstern

Don't all wallets send to new change addresses once TX is sent? BTC101 says never re-use an address, do any wallets re-use addresses?

Apart-Apple-Red

That's not entirely true as bitcoin was actually taking off. Slowly at first, but after pizza it went quite well. It all got crippled when BTC got clogged with fees due to small block size that was supposed to be there only temporary. After that everything went downhill and suddenly bitcoin was reinvented as store of value. That was the final nail to the coffin.

John_Pig

If I'd had a sat for every time this question has been posted I'd have 23 million BTC

NasaSpaceCommander

People don't understand Crypto because most people don't have a lot of money. Try going through an Airport with over $10,000 and you'll be lucky if they don't confiscate it. Try sending someone a bank wire transfer and watch it take 24-72 hours. With Cyrpto you can travel with and send money anywhere in the world within seconds-minutes. Money also loses an average of 3% per year to inflation because they just keep printing it, whereas BTC has a fixed supply so the value keeps going up over time. The US Dollar is not a store of value.

CSMasterClass

That is the main benefit. BTC is tracked by US and EU, but not stopped like a SWIFT transaction would be. Someone has to pay to keep that Iranian dark fleet plowing the free seas.

Flat_Cheetah_1567

### Botsfolio: AI vs. 1,076 human crypto traders My initial assessment: this is an interesting benchmark, but it does not yet prove that Botsfolio has a durable trading edge. Its most important finding is that a rules-based, unleveraged BTC/ETH strategy may outperform highly leveraged retail traders primarily through risk control, disciplined execution, and avoiding catastrophic losses. The article was published October 16, 2026, and compares Botsfolio's strategy against 1,076 real Hyperliquid trader accounts using matching historical dates. Crucially, the AI results are backtested, not the results of 1,076 live, capital-matched AI accounts. ### 1\. The headline results Botsfolio's published benchmark · May 2024–October 2026 AI windows ending profitable ### 88.6% Human traders: 31.4% Median AI worst drawdown ### 18.3% Human traders: 89.8% AI beat humans on return ### 78.4% 844 of 1,076 accounts Beat AI on return and drawdown ### 2.4% 26 human traders Source: [Botsfolio's published benchmark](https://botsfolio.com/blog/ai-vs-human-traders?utm_source=chatgpt.com). These are the company's reported results, not independently reproduced findings. The distinction that matters most is that the AI traded spot BTC and ETH without leverage, whereas the human sample primarily consisted of leveraged crypto traders trading a broader range of assets. This is a comparison of two different risk-taking approaches, not a controlled experiment isolating the benefit of AI. ### 2\. The most important finding is hidden in their methodology The follow-up methodology page is more informative than the headline article because it discloses tests the strategy failed. Historical drawdown control The company reports that the BTC/ETH Cycle Trader had a median annualized return of 33.6% across monthly starting windows since 2018, versus 24.1% for holding the same assets, with lower drawdowns. Some out-of-sample evidence The company reports holdout tests using settings selected before the evaluation periods. It also reports tests on coins not used to design the strategy. These are useful tests, although they remain company-produced results. The timing edge remains unproven The strategy failed its preregistered random-timing tests for both BTC/ETH and the unseen-coin group. That is material: reducing exposure during bad markets can produce attractive drawdown statistics without establishing that the entry and exit timing itself has predictive value. Live forward validation is still short The company says its current rules were fixed on October 8, 2026, and its live portfolio results are paper-traded. It plans to wait for 180 days of live results before assigning a live grade. The distinction is fundamental: a strategy can be an excellent risk-management system without possessing a statistically robust source of alpha. ### 3\. What I would challenge before trusting the results | Audit question | Why it matters | | ---------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Does the strategy beat buy-and-hold after all costs? | The correct baseline is holding the same assets over identical periods. | | Does it beat randomized timing rules? | Tests whether the signal adds value beyond exposure management and luck. | | Are the drawdowns measured from intraday equity? | Weekly snapshots can miss substantial losses between observations. | | Are the rules frozen before testing? | Prevents repeated tuning against the evaluation sample. | | Are trades executable at the assumed prices? | Paper trading does not establish real fill quality, market impact or slippage. | | Does it work across distinct market regimes? | A strategy optimized for a weak BTC/ETH period may underperform in a sustained bull market. | | Are results independently reproducible? | A published report is not a substitute for source data, code and independently calculated metrics. | Botsfolio itself acknowledges that weekly drawdown measurements miss intraweek losses, that some design-coin history is in-sample, and that the timing tests failed. ### 4\. What this means for our trading systems The useful takeaway is not to copy Botsfolio's strategy. It is to adopt the strongest parts of its research protocol and apply them to our existing components. A. Separate alpha from risk control Test the signal independently from position sizing, exposure reduction and stop logic. Measure the incremental return attributable to each component, as well as the drawdown reduction and turnover cost. B. Run a matched-baseline gauntlet Compare every candidate against buy-and-hold, simple trend filters, fixed-exposure controls and randomized-timing controls. Match dates, capital, assets, fees, slippage and execution assumptions. C. Measure economic value, not just win rate Prioritize net expectancy, risk-adjusted return, maximum drawdown, tail losses, exposure-adjusted performance and stability across out-of-sample regimes. A high percentage of profitable windows is not enough. D. Reproduce before accepting Obtain the published trade history and rules, independently reconstruct the equity curves, verify fees and timestamp alignment, and rerun the preregistered tests. Treat discrepancies as research findings rather than papering over them. ### My verdict Worth investigating; not yet proven as a deployable source of alpha. The strongest claim supported by the article is that a disciplined, unleveraged BTC/ETH strategy appears to have managed historical risk better than a sample of leveraged retail traders. That is useful evidence for systematic risk management, but it does not establish that AI itself caused the advantage or that the strategy will retain it prospectively. For our own research, I would prioritize the random-timing failure. If the strategy cannot demonstrate that its timing rules outperform simple controls, the appropriate conclusion is to retain any demonstrably valuable exposure-management component and reject unsupported alpha claims. One limitation: I have reviewed the published methodology and claims, not independently downloaded and rerun the underlying trades.

Feralz2

hashrate is not guaranteed, you think this is some kind of magic? lol, if people stop mining BTC because the price is dumping, the hashrate would absolute tank, just like it has tanked before.

VettaQ

Nice instinct replicating on a held-out period - that is the part most of these posts skip. The next thing to nail down is the decomposition: define 'coin-specific' as the residual after removing the coin's beta to BTC (or your market factor), otherwise a market-wide dump gets labeled idiosyncratic and inflates the effect. Then condition on the residual drop percentile and compare forward returns against matched coins in the same liquidity bucket that did not drop. Two traps to check. Survivorship: if your universe excludes coins that later delisted or died, the 'keeps falling for a week' path is understated, because the worst cases left the sample. And reporting: show the hit rate and the tail, not just the average path - the interesting difference versus equities is probably in the left tail, since crypto has no designated liquidity provider obligated to absorb a one-sided book, and a perp funding cascade can keep forcing sellers in after the initial move.

lobhater

Tell me you just bought BTC for the first time without telling me you just bought BTC for the first time

VettaQ

Attribution is the hard part here, not the observation. Before pinning anything on the ETFs you need a counterfactual: run the same exceedance count on an asset that did not get an ETF in the same window, and on BTC over placebo dates away from the launch. If the drop in tail hours shows up everywhere, it is a regime change, not an ETF effect. Second, 'six-sigma' is estimator-dependent: with fat-tailed hourly returns, a Gaussian sigma moves just because vol clustering changed. Re-count with a robust scale (median absolute deviation, or a fixed multiple of trailing realized vol) and see if the result survives. Third, use an actual structural break test (Bai-Perron) instead of eyeballing the ETF date - if the estimated break does not land near the launch, the story weakens a lot. And you are right about volume: drying up is a state, not a signal. It widens the distribution of the next move without tilting its direction.

Volvemi

Not just BTC. Let’s spend some money!

LikSaSkejtom

Yeah, like a new fork, or payment method in under 5 seconds, or accepting BTC as main asset for trading of energy. Its some random exchange and a graph.

No_Weather9887

Yeah, I've been using Oobit for everyday payments and it's been pretty convenient so far. Still holding my BTC though lol, I'd rather spend stablecoins

baz0oka_Bob

BTC has not been a problem for a while now, literally every tx is tracked by US and EU government people.

EthanDavis63

Fiat system crashing, banks failing, inflation hitting double digits, and BTC HODLers are just chilling having their morning espresso.

ModestlyHazed

What do you mean by "Global index"? And measured in what currency? There are several different global indexes. But it sounds like you are looking at a specific index fund, if so you must take currency effects in to account, when comparing nominal return. Especially if you're comparing it to other assets. The MSCI World, which I referred to, is the index that the most global index funds track. And if you look at the MSCI World from janauary 2022 - january 2026 in US dollars, it has returned approx 35%, and closer to 57% if you stretch it to august 2026. |2026 (to Aug 31)|\+13.10| |:-|:-| |2025|\+21.09| |2024|\+18.67| |2023|\+23.79| |2022|\-18.14| Wether BTC is a better investment than other assets is of course impossible to say. Past returns are no guarantee for future returns and that goes for global index funds as well as BTC. Personally I have around 10% of my portfolio in BTC. My reasoning is basically: The world is getting more and more digital = The worlds biggest digital asset will be in demand in the future.

Internal-Map-4658

I do similar thing but with smaller reserve, like 15% maybe. The 25% sitting on side feels little too much for me cause what if BTC just runs up and never dips more than 2-3% in that 12 weeks? Then you lost some gains on that quarter of your money But I get the psychology, having that safety net makes you sleep better at night and that has its own value. Maybe you can decide some rules for when to use the reserve, like if price drop 5% you put half of it in, if drop 10% you go all in. Without rules is easy to just keep waiting for perfect dip that never comes I started my DCA 3 years ago and my biggest mistake was trying to time too much, now I just set it and forget it

BrendanRodgersss

I'd be careful with the assumption that illicit economic activity automatically translates into lasting demand for BTC. Transaction volume isn't the same as people holding Bitcoin. If someone receives BTC and immediately converts it back to fiat or stablecoins, that has very different implications from accumulating it as savings. Blockchain-analysis reports might give you some estimates, but they're generally measuring detectable activity, not the entire illicit economy.

xcrunner2414

Depends how much BTC we’re talking about. 1 whole BTC, or much less? The closer it is to a whole BTC, or more, the sooner I would suggest dice throws to generate a seed phrase and all address-generation and signing should be performed by a Seed Signer device. If we’re talking about 0.1 BTC, or less, then I would just put it on a hot wallet app, like Blue Wallet or even Strike.

VivaHollanda

Understood. I know nobody can stop BTC transactions. Governments can however effectively block it's citizens from using it in normal day-to-day transactions, not much different from blocking a bank account. 

AutoModerator

Post is by: Huge_Position890 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/algotradingcrypto/comments/1xaq5ea/since_the_spot_etfs_bitcoins_6sigma_hours_are_3x/ \- \*\*Shape changed.\*\* On hourly BTC, \*after removing volatility\*, extreme moves became rarer after the January 2024 spot ETFs: 4σ hours \~1.7x rarer, 6σ hours \~2.8x rarer. The tail index rose from \~2.3–2.4 to \~2.8–2.9 (z 5–6.6, pre-registered, survived a planted-effect check). \- \*\*But tails breathe.\*\* The tail was just as thin in 2020–21 and fat again in 2022–23. The latest thin phase lines up with the ETF era. One event, one asset: I can't call it causal. \- \*\*Volume explains how fat the tails are, not why they thinned.\*\* Scaling returns by volume makes tails much thinner overall, but the post-ETF change stays the same size. \- \*\*Drying volume:\*\* the next day is calmer (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%). But that's just calm continuing. It adds nothing beyond what a volatility model already knows. Sharp moves after drying volume went down 52.7% of the time vs 54.3% on other days. A 10-point directional edge is ruled out. **Why I looked again** Last week I posted that crypto's tails are fat in every window and swing no more than noise. I also saw a hint of a slow drift, but I found it after looking at the chart and it didn't clear my bar (SNR 2.5 vs 3). My co-researcher's bet this time was "the ETFs changed the shape of the tail." Mine was "no, they changed volatility, not the shape" (50%). Both were written down before the data was touched. **Setup** \- \*\*Data:\*\* BTCUSDT spot, hourly, Binance, Aug 2017 – Sep 2026. That's 79,807 hours: 55,951 before 11 Jan 2024 and 23,856 after. \- \*\*Cleaning:\*\* \- Remove the weekday × hour pattern, separately before and after the ETFs. US trading hours matter more now, and that is not a tail shape. \- Divide each hour by a GJR-GARCH-t volatility estimate. What's left is the \*\*shape\*\*: how surprising a move is \*given\* current volatility. \- \*\*Measure:\*\* Hill tail index on the top 5% of each tail, before vs after. Higher α = thinner tail. \- \*\*Null:\*\* 200 simulated paths from the fitted model with a \*constant\* tail, each re-estimated the same way. Simulated paths that blew up were filtered out. \- \*\*Checks before looking at the real result:\*\* \- no false alarms when nothing changes (0–1%); \- a planted tail change was caught (100%); \- a planted \*volatility-only\* change was not mistaken for a shape change (0–3%). \*\*Power note.\*\* I first tried daily BTC and a pooled cross-section of \~400 coins. On simulated data, a sizeable tail change was caught only 6–12% (daily) and 30% (pooled) of the time. Pooling coins doesn't help much because crashes hit all coins on the same days. Hourly data was the first design with enough power, so I used it. **Result 1: the shape changed** | | before ETFs | after ETFs | z | | left tail (drops), α | 2.29 | 2.82 | 5.3 | | right tail (rises), α | 2.42 | 2.87 | 6.6 |  \- \*\*Robust to tail size:\*\* the same result holds using the top 2.5% or 10% instead of 5% (z 5.3–6.1). \- \*\*Fitted separately:\*\* fitting the volatility model separately on each period gives the same picture. Volatility fell \~43%, and the tail parameter rose from 3.4 to 4.3. So it's not only "BTC got calmer." Given the calm, big surprises got rarer. My co-researcher was right; I was wrong. **Result 2: but the tail breathes**  \- \*\*2018–19:\*\* fat. \*\*2020–21:\*\* thin, about as thin as now. \*\*2022 to early 2023:\*\* fat again (FTX era). \*\*2024 onward:\*\* thin. \- \*\*The latest thin phase lines up with the ETFs.\*\* In the last window that ends before the ETFs, the tail index was still \~2.2. It rises through 2024. \- \*\*Why I can't call it causal:\*\* \- It's one event, on one asset. \- The tail has moved like this before, without ETFs. \- Other things changed in 2024 too (halving, market structure). \- A test of "is the ETF date special" also ran into this. Split points before the ETFs look like breaks too, because their "after" segment contains the ETF era. So that test can't separate the ETFs from a slow regime change. **Result 3: what about volume?** \*\*A data trap first.\*\* Binance's zero-fee BTC period inflated BTCUSDT volume 2–4x from July 2022 to March 2023. It went from $231B in March 2023 to $47B in April. Anyone using Binance BTC volume across 2022–23 should cut that window. I did. \*\*Does volume explain the tail?\*\* The mixture-of-distributions idea (Clark 1973) says returns look fat-tailed because information flow (volume) varies. So I scaled each hour by its relative volume. \- \*\*The level, partly yes.\*\* The tail index jumps from 2.3 to 3.8; volume does explain a lot of \*how\* fat the tails are. \- \*\*The ETF-era change, no.\*\* It is the same size with or without volume scaling (+22%/+18% vs +20%/+15%). So whatever thinned the tails, it isn't the \*amount\* of trading. Book depth or participant mix are candidates I can't test before the ETFs; I only started collecting depth in 2026. **Result 4: drying volume and the next move** "Volume dries up before the big move" is common folklore. I defined "drying" as the last 24h volume being below 60% of its 30-day median: 394 such days vs 2,578 others.  \*\*Calmer? Yes, in plain terms.\*\* The next day's median range is 2.4% vs 3.1%. But that's just calm continuing. \- My pre-registered test asked whether drying volume adds anything \*beyond\* the volatility model. \- It first said yes: +18% \*more\* movement than the model expected (SNR 4.2). \- The volatility model turned out to be the problem. It barely mean-reverts (persistence ≈ 0.999), so after any calm stretch it under-predicts. \- Adding the last 24h of volatility to the controls makes the drying-volume effect vanish (SNR 0.7). \- \*\*Bottom line:\*\* drying volume tells you the market is calm, which you already knew. \*\*Direction? No.\*\* \- After drying volume, 52.7% of sharp hours (beyond 3σ) went down, vs 54.3% on other days. The difference is −1.7 points, 95% CI \[−9.5, +6.2\]. \- Over 72 hours the shares are 54.1% vs 54.0%. \- A directional edge of 10 points or more is ruled out. The 24h return difference is also indistinguishable from zero. **What it means** \- \*\*For risk, not for direction.\*\* Stops and leverage sized on ATR implicitly assume a fixed tail. Before vs after the ETFs, moves beyond 4σ were 1.7x and beyond 6σ 2.8x more frequent in the fatter phase, so a stop several ATRs away gets hit by noise noticeably more often. A rolling tail estimate is a cheap way to know which phase you're in. \- \*\*"Coiled spring" volume:\*\* it neither predicts which way the next big candle goes nor makes it more likely than the current calm implies. \- \*\*If you compare realized volatility to GARCH forecasts, control for recent volatility.\*\* Otherwise "after X, it got busier than expected" can just be GARCH being slow after a quiet day. I almost published exactly that. **Scorecard (written down before the data)** \- \*\*Tails:\*\* co-researcher "shape changed" — right. Me "shape same" (50%) — wrong. \- \*\*Drying volume → sideways:\*\* we both expected a calmer-than-expected day. In plain terms it is calmer, but not beyond what calm already implies, so the pre-registered rule says no. \- \*\*Drying volume → direction:\*\* I gave "no direction ruled out" only 30%. That's what came out. **Limitations** \- \*\*One asset, one exchange, spot.\*\* BTC only, on Binance spot. \- \*\*Hill depends on how much of the tail you use.\*\* I fixed 5% in advance and reported 2.5% and 10%. \- \*\*The ETF effect isn't identified.\*\* It's one event, the tail moves on its own, and 2024 had other changes too. \- \*\*"Drying" has one definition\*\* (60% of the 30-day median). I didn't try others, on purpose. \*\*References\*\* \- Hill, B. M. (1975). A simple general approach to inference about the tail of a distribution. \*Annals of Statistics\*, 3(5), 1163–1174. \- Quintos, C., Fan, Z., & Phillips, P. C. B. (2001). Structural change tests in tail behaviour and the Asian crisis. \*Review of Economic Studies\*, 68(3), 633–663. \- Clark, P. K. (1973). A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices. \*Econometrica\*, 41(1), 135–155. \- Drożdż, S., Kluszczyński, R., Kwapień, J., & Wątorek, M. (2025). Multifractality and its sources in the digital currency market. arXiv:2510.13785. (Their 1-minute data also shows BTC's thinnest tail in 2024.) \*Not financial advice. This is a research log.\* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

VivaHollanda

Can China effectively block it's citizens from using BTC in China? 

jake_engineering

We’re talking here about using BTC as a mean to pay and get paid. I don’t think that anyone uses houses like that. With such constant sudden growth of value and drop of value of money in your wallet I see even bigger risks. It’s like introducing constant hyper deflation and hyper inflation at once. This wouldn’t end well for anyone. However if we would really be about to replace USD with BTC, than we would have to stop talking about its value in this way and its value would rather be represented by transactions costs. But first most of the people would have to start using it, so we stop treating it as investment asset.

CutFabulous1178

If you invested $1000 each time Schiff Shits on BTC And he’s been Bashing since 2013.. Let’s just say you’d be happily retired or some place nice

VeryThicknLong

Time to buy some BTC!

VivaHollanda

BTC doesn't solve this.  It doesn't apply to transactions between private individuals. And I guess that in other cases BTC has to be treated as a cash payment, why would a business be allowed to accept BTC without the mandatory checks that do apply to cash. 

privacymatterznow

I was talking to people I play Padel with and saw they opened an exchange. I said oh, you get BTC? They said, "bro its a scam". I replied "that its been out for 17 years and went from worthless to $81k. You sure about that bro? Its like saying the usable internet in its current form that is about only 30 years old is a scam." Then of course they changed the subject. 

Effective_Engine319

I used BTC to buy dinner last week. The fee was $0.001.

tres_pares

my guy if he got $720k in 2023 and used all that to buy that dip he would have 1000 BTC by now and that would be $81m in the current price, and $125k\~ at last year peak and prolly gonna reach $150-200m this bullrun

chainglance_cm

Most BTC “staking” is really lending it out or wrapping it, so you’re adding custodian or smart contract risk to the one asset people hold specifically to avoid that. Fine if you know what you’re signing up for, just keep it a small slice. For the Bitcoin standard thing, LN is honestly the best part. Small spends in sats feel way more natural than doing onchain txs for a coffee, and fees are basically nothing. Cold storage for the stack, LN wallet for spending money, like a savings and checking account. Once you’ve got BTC split across cold storage, LN and wrapped versions in DeFi, keeping track of what’s where gets messy. Trackers like Chain Glance help with the onchain side. Probably not needed if most of it just sits in cold storage though.

mia45452

A small test withdrawal is a useful reality check: it shows you can get BTC on-chain today, though it doesn't prove the platform could honor every customer's balance at once.

Mohowl_

I'll take a guess........ somewhere between 100k and 120k. Also, 1 BTC will be worth 1 BTC.

TheReaIJuice

He is talking more about BTC than Saylor

Previous_Valuable873

I disagree. BTC is extremely expensive to move, slow, sluggish and in general totally transparent. When i first bought BTC i assumed I am buying XMR featureset wise. It was back in 2013 mind you. When normies hear "crypto" I am sure they all expect monero. And then they get BTC and later on find out "holdonasecond wtf, this is bullshit" and switch to xmr.

Material_Ship1344

BTC is going to 1M. its time to stack

No-Iron9866

Bitcoin is no longer used for this as much now that people have figured it out. The actual question here is the opposite how much legal money needs flow through btc to get the price tag you’re looking for. BTC has always been based around trust not deceit.

GooodNiightaringding

It's honestly crazy. "Cap of 21 million BTC" is the major selling point of BTC, yet it's the exact same thing as "eventually spend nothing on security". Am I crazy or do people just not understand why we're even paying miners to begin with?

jay-valkyrie

A very likely future demand for BTC will be Super Intelligence agents. They will require a token that cannot be double spent, has a fixed supply cap and is recorded on an immutable ledger.

CoinEditionIndonesia

I think the distinction between adoption and speculation is important here. Bitcoin doesn't necessarily need to become an everyday payment method to have monetary utility. Cross-border transfers, self-custody, and holding an asset outside the traditional banking system are already use cases.. But there's another question worth asking: how much of the current demand comes from people actually using those properties, versus investors seeking price appreciation? That distinction probably matters more for long-term adoption than the number of merchants accepting BTC

HJDASHU

I have 26 BTC that I can just sit tight on😁

lus1d

I don’t get this anguish at all. My last purchase was 3 boxes of Modafinil from Indiapharmacy and paying by crypto I even got a discount so it only cost 0.2 BTC. Oh, wait….

lus1d

You might be right, or you might not. I’d suggest there’s a high probility 0.5 BTC will be liquidated and lost forever. But there’s a higher probability it will be in serious profit in 2 years…. Without having put more equity from the pay check into it. Any individual can tweak the trade to suit their risk profile, the above trade I discussed would fall under the category of Degen. (Unless your bag size is 50BTC, then it’s just a 1% risk 4R trade.)

lus1d

100% agree. And you will note I did not suggest that we won’t dump to $70k 60 50 40 or $20k anything is possible. If BTC wasn’t volatile, none of us would be here. We’d all be in metals stonks property or whatever.

cubeeless

BTC to $400k!

Holywell65

I consider the ability to transfer BTC peer to peer to be a supreme value. Also it’s fixed supply.

jasonslpt

Calling it over might be early, but the map leans against a quick rip. About $15M of longs got flushed in the last hour, nearly all of it longs, and longs are still roughly 63% of open interest, so the crowd has not cleared out. There is only a thin long liquidation pocket around 81.3K to 81.4K, then a much bigger pile near 79K, and I lean toward price getting pulled down to that area. I am wrong if BTC clears 81.6K and holds above 82K, since that would squeeze the shorts stacked right overhead. Not advice.

webisticsmarketing1

want to see something interesting? Go on google keyword trends and search for terms like "Bitcoin" "BTC to usd" "Bitcoin price" and for fun you can even throw in "eth to usd" "Ethereum price" etc. Looking at this was one of the main things that finally convinced me to dump my remaining crypto recently. It really seems like the global interest and focus already came, peaked, and went during covid. I genuinely think the masses are over it.

Patrick_Atsushi

Not being able to patch up the quantum threat for BTC for all wallets. This could be considered a design flaw that might shake up BTC if not handled properly and promptly.

Sin-City-Sinner

True i remember seeing a BTC machine like 13 years ago maybe a little less, however it does not mean it’s a smart thing to use in 2026–27

Regular_Attempt_7073

Its been 15 years since BTC came on the scene and has been challenging people’s concept of value and assets. Its timeline is undetermined because no one knows the future but what we do know is that things always take longer than people expect.

cyclik

I’m holding my BTC. If I would have had money last time I wanted to hold, I would be a millionaire today. 100%. I had the orders ready in 2013, but couldn’t establish the capital at that time. Now is different. I’m holding at 66k. It’s not going away. Not in this playthough. And I won’t gamble by playing the leverages game… they make it too easy to lose everything with one bad choice. If you have to gamble to work in the market, you should find another line of work…. Or a new hobby, because this isn’t a good one to dabble in. I wish I had some insider info, and that acting on said info wasn’t a felony. I need a network of people I can trust, but I can’t meet anyone anymore. Everyone is locking themselves away or getting stuck in dead end, life and souls sucking jobs that don’t even pay the bills. What is a man to do…

CyanDew

is it like buying BTC P2P from say something like Bisq, only more expensive and time consuming? or are these Bitcoin being paid out from exchanges?

cyclik

Omg. Check today’s price of BTC. That’s the catch.

SomeonesSecondary

I got into “crypto” in 2020-2021. Got burnt, got out but learned more about Bitcoin. Now I love Bitcoin and find “Crypto” to be cringe. I think anyone with a very limited knowledge of BTC who heard about NFTs, memecoins, rug pulls, and other scams is automatically going to be very wary of it all. Learning more about the history, origin, and foundational principles of Bitcoin can turn anyone with an open mind into a maximalist, but you have to be in the right headspace to want to even take in any of this information. I think a lot of us look at the price charts and see it as USD getting weaker, rather than Bitcoin rising, but that’s a worldview you have to develop

AnApexBread

Being treated like Cash instead of investment. Right now of I want to spend BTC I have to pay capital gain taxes on it.

economic-salami

Real world adoption goes hand in hand with its utility. Believe it or not BTC needs some way to do the central banking, in sense that it can do a stabilizing monetary policy.

AcanthisittaFuture38

Just as Visa and Mastercard have become dominant payment networks, accepted by virtually every merchant, Bitcoin is already well known. Now it needs to become useful in everyday life. Even many people who own BTC don’t actually want to use it; they’re just waiting for its price to go up so they can pass the “hot potato” on to someone else.

AcanthisittaFuture38

Exactly—not even people who have BTC want to have BTC; that's the biggest problem!

RyzenNinja

Strike has started doing 3.5% in BTC for the cash you store in your account. So you move your savings there then you could get your BTC through words.

Big-Cheetah5159

They accept BTC at the dealership?

AP_lookingahead

I think by this point the average person knows about BTC (it’s been heavily included in popular media, news, etc) but they just don’t care.

Rude_Difference2273

Let it become more widespread. Right now, it’s a perfect asset for those of us who believe in it; however, the day you can walk into any store and pay freely with your BTC—that’s when you’ll see a return on your investment today.

adarshhehe

To all, I don't think BTC will be valuable in the future. Some folks are just coping and expecting it to boom. No one cares about BTC anymore like it used to be. So chill the f out and do something else. Gold is valuable because, it's a physical entity. And BTC is air to common man. Gold has thousands of years of history backing it up and actual physical applications. You can hold it, wear it, and use it in manufacturing. BTC, on the other hand, is just a string of code on a decentralized spreadsheet, propped up by internet hype and tech bros trying to pump their own bags. When the economy gets genuinely rough, everyday people aren't going to scramble for tokens they can't even touch. The blockchain tech might be a neat experiment, but as a global reserve currency? It's a massive delusion. It’s time to wake up, stop gambling savings on digital ghosts. I used to be a crypto fan boy, but it's not worth it. No body cares