BTC

Blixx96

True. I believe someone wise said, “The day that BTC becomes different, it won’t be during a bear market, but a bull market that makes it different.”

GuestClassic5324

BTC and try RYO too

KungFuBucket

Remember at one point it was $1,200 and at another it was almost $120k. I had one guy telling me to stack BTC when it was $100k. Only buy what you can afford to lose.

tobypassquarant

Sell. Sell. Sell. Get rid of it. Sell it all. If you want BTC, buy the ETF. But do not hold any bitcoin. Or crypto. Don't. They're onto you. And they WILL lock you down and DESTROY YOUR SOUL. THE MIGHTY, GREAT, EVIL OVERLORDS COMMAND YOU TO SELL!!!!

Fro3en_Cornchip

Cautiously optimistic for cheaper BTC?

_Stylite

And yet people have made a ton of money shorting BTC

BlazingPalm

Your problem is you bought and held a duffle bag of feces. If you had bought and held BTC only, you’d be way more excited right now.

Top_Limit_

You want to buy BTC from someone on the internet? What is the advantage over an exchange?

_SlipperySalmon_

Not to mention no one said October 1... We still have like 50 days to see what happens amidst all the macro uncertainty. If stonk market tags a 10% + dive then that is easier 30% + drop in BTC

Chickensrock1977

Is that when BTC was steer peer to peer in the white paper? Relax guy, I’m sure you’ll make a nice ROI on your half BTC

tourbladez

How about LAPTOP? Just kidding, of course. I would probably say stick with BTC.

A_Honking_Goose

There will be a dip at some point it just won't be anywhere 40k BTC and these people will then miss the last entry, cope some more for a few months and then finally pile in months late. Its really funny because it happens every single time yet sideliners still think they are smart

throwaway12three4

Yes. If/when I sell some BTC, I will likely use Fidelity or Coinbase pro/advanced or whatever they call it.

magma_lakes

BTC + ETH (and maybe some XMR). Get some BC3 as "practice" if you're not comfortable with BTC yet: https://bc3.network

Club1150

I’m not what anyone would consider a tech guy. I figure I’d fuck it up at some point if I keep it in a wallet. I’m not worried about Fidelity going under. But iv they had a breach and people lost BTC due to Fidelity’s fault, what do you think would happen?

Dmarine999

I moved my BTC to Coinbase after that fiasco. I trust them more than myself at this point. Self-custody is great, but is not without significant risks.

RobinhoodtraderBTC

Everyone on Reddit says cold wallet storage is the way, but this guy I’ve talked to in real life who’s been holding BTC for years doesn’t think it matters.

tenor_tymir

Venmo is not an exchange. They have no order book, no limit orders and high fees. Why would you even want to buy BTC through a Paypal company? There are a lot of better and cheaper alternatives.

danxtptrnrth1

I don't buy from venmo. But I have their credit card, so I get BTC in rewards from them every month. In addition to my regular purchases on River, I've been able to stack a tidy little sum. The one downside as others have mentioned is they have a pretty wide spread. I don't keep it on venmos exchange, but it's been a nice way to add to my stack from my daily spending.

oneawesomewave

Funny you ask why I want to argue lol. You are on Reddit my man. People here tend to discuss - apparently much like you. I debate because what you say doesn't make any sense. Bitcoin does not need momentum. Daytraders need it. I don't care about momentum bc I - like most OG - am convinced BTC will improve over time and chasing tops and bottoms eventually only depletes my stash.

Front_Improvement178

Gave up about 2 years ago. BTC is the only show in town crypto wise.

na3than

"Addresses with more than 1 BTC in them > individuals with keys to these addresses" doesn't prove their point. OP and the author of the tweet claim it's rarer to own one Bitcoin than it is to have one's own Wikipedia page. We don't know how many people hold one Bitcoin, but it's possible that the number is as high as 2.4 million so it's possible that there are more people who own 1 Bitcoin than there are people who have their own Wikipedia page.

Entire_Presence_1523

Kaspa. TAO. BTC.

oneawesomewave

"Being in the scene" doesn't protect you in any way from taking stupid decisions - and I am aware you took stupid decisions because everyone who enters the scene did. I learned it the hard way when I bought my first BTC at 100 USD and felt like a freakin wizard when selling at 150. No matter what, momentum is relevant for those who want to make a quick buck. Bitcoin doesn't care and neither do hodlers.

Romanizer

Which only proves the point. Addresses with more than 1 BTC in them > individuals with keys to these addresses.

Mulvita43

I got BTC from satoshi!!!! Boom

CXavier4545

I got BTC from mt Gox if you wanna measure dicks otherwise go away brokie

CXavier4545

go on with your .00005 BTC

Topspeed_PT

You never watched the BTC chart, have you?

Abject-Stretch-1187

Yes anything can happen. The point is what is the percentage of probabilities of them occurring. There were so many events this year unlike other bears that should've cause BTC to go to 40k or even 30k but didn't so the odds get slimmer as each day passes. Up is down and down is up under inflationary pressures. Common sense outcome should definitely be ignored under such environment precisely because it is not a rational environment and expecting rational outcomes end up leaving folks behind. Michael Burry is right in an irrational/illogical market due to one factor: inflation. The can can and will always be kicked down the road. Crashes aren't as deep and recoveries are faster.

anonymousopsec1337

I think that the bulk of people that are “invested” in crypto aren’t long term holders. Either due to volatility or external factors. I know if I lost my job tomorrow I would start by selling off my riskiest assets first which for me would be my BTC. I think alot of people would think this way. There would be an economic downtrend of btc before the broader market is affected.

Traditional_Most105

But you answered to yourself. You bought at their ATH. That means if their ATH wont be reached and over it then they wont turn green. I joined crypto back in july for the first time. At that time i was lucky that BTC was at 55000 i think and most alts were low. I bought also hbar. Now mine are in the green zone because i bought low and now they rose up. Its simple as that. If BTC is high people are more comfortable putting their money in alts. If BTC drops they sell. Same with ETH. But an altcoin could also rise up even if BTC and ETH are low cause it might get adopted the project behind it and demand of the coin increases.... So if your entries are at the ATH then to go 8n the green zone they need to surpass their ATH.

Then-Feedback7751

Everything he's said here is an accurate recounting of what he's been saying for years. People are strawmaning him since BTC has bottomed early. He most definitely was not and has never been someone to say bitcoin will and must bottom on x date, but people are trying to shoehorn him into that box. It's not fair. But that's what comes with being a big, public facing name in markets. I did some math on the 4 year cycle for my own consideration of what remains of its predictive power, and I want to point out that on the scale of 4 years, bottoming in July vs. bottoming in October is a matter of 6% difference. I personally don't think that's enough of a dispersion to sweep it into the dust bin of history but rather reframe it as it always should have been understood: a general theory of market behavior with a decent track record vs. gospel on when btc tops and bottoms.

Truth-Quest

Yeah the rich are getting richer while the rest are struggling. Unfortunately I think this is gonna get worse with AI.  To counter this, i think people are going to unite together and form communities of some sort and try to ditch the current financial system and make their own one. BTC communtiy is one such example. i think with time, there will be other communities as well that pop up because people would be desperate to exit the rat race they are in and the returns from traditional assets aint gonna move the needle for them. This is already happening right now and is only gonna accelerate as more people become aware of it 

Connect_Lecture_4909

Au BTC

Savik519

JFC, candles, bottoms, RSI, Fed policy. What the fuck, you are creating a thesis centered around charts and external factors. Learn/study BTC and try again.

Abject-Stretch-1187

Dude responded like he knew wtf he was talking about lol These are the bears we're dealing with. Imagine thinking ETF holders give a shit about a final bottom especially when the asset ETF holders want to buy is already 50% down from ATH. Retail investors can sometimes be a special type of stupid, they've grown accustomed to massive drops that they forget to realize when they're being overly greedy. They forget to factor in landscape changes like ETF buyers buying at a 50% discount while them(the retail investors) naively assume that the cycle theory will hold just for them like they genuinely believe they solely have control over BTC's price movement.

Topspeed_PT

You need IA? lol! I've all memorized in my head. I've lived through all cycles and learnt about BTC in 2010. Maybe you weren't born yet. BTC didn't reach $73,750! Stop using ChatGPT crap!

Topspeed_PT

You seem upset! I don't control the BTC price. I've my projections but in the end my target is BTC block value which so far wins all the time.

Reach_Beyond

Trying to wait until BTC is cheap is not the same as trying to buy a stock at a lower valuation. BTC doesn’t technically have a valuation comparable to stocks. It has adoption metrics and social driven value. But anyone buying it would want/expect/believe BTC has massive upside. Maybe I’m here to tell you <$40k from 2023 is the equivalent of $70k BTC in 2026. If you want $30k-40k buy, why not $18k BTC from beginning of 2023?

Escapement_Watch

30k at your age is incredible! Put 15k into BTC and 15k into SOL on an exchange and in 10 years you'll have more then your money back!

TheShtoiv

I reached my goal in BTC so I strengthened my allocation in stocks for now. Not sure why I was even downvoted. Good luck in your journey

Intermarket_Trader

To be fair to Ben, he does plenty of videos covering both Bull & Bear cases, even when he does lean more Bearish within the overall cycle. He is a bit of BTC maxi / Altcoin hater, but this is a BTC reddit anyway lol. I usually don't agree with his Bearish takes, but I like to watch his YT videos since it's dangerous to be 100% in my own Bullish bubble. One thing I do respect about Ben is he hedges against the possibility he could be wrong, and so he bought BTC regardless (DCA). He admitted he would've liked to have accumulated more at the lows. We could say recommending DCA is a cop-out, but DCA is generally a sound strategy in crypto, especially when prices crash and multiple HTF indicators are/were Oversold. Either way, its too early to tell for sure, but it's nice to see some Bullish energy return to crypto.

satansayssurfsup

BTC goes up and down. More at 7…

tenor_tymir

Aright, where is the iso code in use? Where is BTC called XBT?

Ikeelu

Why do people act like they know better than anyone else? It's his best educated guess. He has been saying October will be the bottom for awhile. Will it? Wait and see. Anyways praising or hating him is just silly. At the end of the day BTC does what BTC wants. We are all speculating its worth of the future. He's not a BTC hater, why do people treat him as such for thinking the bottom is not yet put in because you hope its not true? That doesn't mean it won't go up. For me, it doesnt matter if it bottoms in October or not, my forecast for BTC is long term.

Icy_Box_7224

Nunchuck sells an expensive solution to this. There is a deadman switch that sets in motion automatic notifications and dispersals of BTC.

Reasonable_Band1536

You either have conviction or you don’t. If you’re spending this much time trying to time the bottom, I suggest day trading. At least there’s more stocks options to choose from rather than limiting yourself to BTC. First you DCA your way until you hit one coin and then you surpass one coin and continue.

AutoModerator

Post is by: T_sauce9112 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wkqzuq/ive_been_trying_to_break_my_btc_thesis_since/ Since apparently using AI for research means you just typed “is BTC going down?” into ChatGPT and copied the answer This comes as result of being mocked and ridiculed and taken down for my methods, so here is the complete break down. This analysis didn't start yesterday. I've been building it since August. At this point I've probably used around 250 prompts researching it, questioning it, changing it and trying to break it. It originally started with me questioning whether the bottom was actually in and whether everyone calling for straight up was getting ahead of themselves. From there it turned into looking at the 4 year cycle, previous BTC corrections, left/right translated cycles, Elliott structure, RSI divergences across multiple timeframes, moving averages, Bollinger bands, volume, support/resistance and what previous BTC bottoms actually looked like. Then I started tying macro into it. Fed policy, rate expectations, 2Y/10Y yields, inflation, jobs, oil, diesel/crack spreads, Japan/BOJ and the carry trade, VIX, credit spreads and what normally starts breaking BEFORE risk assets really get hit. Then ETFs and positioning. ETF inflows/outflows, OI, funding, longs vs shorts, liquidation levels, CME gaps, Coinbase premium, spot vs perp activity, CVD, whale activity and on-chain buying/selling. I wasn't just asking AI to prove me right either. A huge amount of the prompts were basically me saying attack this, find out why I'm wrong, find the bullish argument, look for something we're missing, compare it to previous cycles, check another market, check another timeframe, rerun the numbers. That's how the thesis kept evolving. And that's exactly why I started questioning this latest giant green candle. BTC broke down to around 74.8k and instead of continuing lower it completely reversed and eventually ripped from around 77k to 81k+. So instead of saying “well I'm bearish so the pump must be fake,” we dug into what actually happened. Around $178M in BTC shorts got liquidated compared to only around $8M in longs. One of the biggest hours had roughly $171M in liquidations with around 95% being shorts. Futures OI jumped from around $51.2B to $56.4B in a day. Large Binance perp trades showed around $5.71B aggressive buying vs $5.15B selling. Coinbase premium was negative around -9.5bps while offshore derivatives were heavily involved. And BTC basically ran through liquidation levels from 78k, 79k, 80k and into 81k before stopping right under the same 82k area we've been watching. Then volume dried up. That doesn't prove manipulation. I can't tell you who pressed the first buy button or what their intentions were. But it definitely gives me a reason to question everyone looking at one giant green candle and automatically calling it organic bullish demand. That's how I've been using AI. Not “tell me what to think.” More like having a research assistant that I can ask 200 follow up questions, make it check another market, AT LIGHTNING SPEED, attack my argument, compare historical data, look underneath price action and then change the thesis when something doesn't make sense. If you disagree with the analysis that's perfectly fine. Give me the data and I'll look at it. But “you used AI” isn't a counterargument. TLDR: What's actually on the table now? 82-85k is still the major resistance area I've been watching. If BTC rejects up here and loses 80k, then 78k/77k, I'm watching 75k again. But another wick to 74-75k isn't enough anymore. We've already seen BTC do that and rip all the way back. For the real bearish confirmation I want to see BTC break 74-75k, fail to reclaim it and actually ACCEPT below it. Then I'm looking at 72k-70k, and if 70k fails the deeper target is still 65-68k. The other side is simple too. If BTC breaks through 82-85k, holds it, retests it and buyers actually defend it as support, then my bearish thesis is in trouble. Sustained acceptance above 85k and I have to admit the setup I was looking for didn't happen. Until one of those things happens I think BTC is basically fighting inside a giant 75k to 82-85k range. I'm not pretending I know which side wins. I'm using every tool available to me to figure it out before everyone else does. Thats what the institutions do... *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Medium-Renewed

Not just solana, alts in general have a nice little rally. But with BTC at resistance, shit could hit the fan again rather quickly

Legitimate_Cry_5194

Oh, you predict the short term price movement of BTC, what a legend. You know, if we put our gains (or losses) from crypto next to each other it would be you that would feel a little more humble, but I have no interest at all to do that. I understand a lot from a little, take or leave my advice 😉. Reality will humble you anyway, you can't escape this one.

T_sauce9112

Look at my previous posts where I predicted BTC would go down to 75k. Read that and go take a seat. I'm not on here for validation, I'm on her to spread knowledge U dont want it? There's the door respectfully. No one is is successful is on here spreading negativity and bashing other posters. Let me see u post some of your work...I'll wait

Clchalbaud

Y’all come on these forums asking some real foolish questions to dudes trying to short the stock and make a quick buck off your fear. They have no clue what’s going to happen either. They want your money, and they want you scared. Stop asking questions that not even an oracle could answer. You should’ve bought when it was in the $80s. Now, as I write this, we’re just under $154. Go with your gut and your own intuition. BTC is a rare, finite commodity. What do you think happens as more and more people and institutions want exposure to something with a fixed supply? Think for yourself. Stop looking to strangers on a forum to predict the future for you.

tenor_tymir

Why is XBT BTC?

Alfador8

I don't watch him (or any "crypto influencer") but from what I've gathered he's one of the main proponents of the idea that bitcoin's price will bottom in October. I think some of the current hate at least is from people dumb enough to make BTC buy/sell decisions based on YouTube videos that are now feeling left behind by the current price action.

Matterhorne89

I wouldn’t call him a grifter. He’s always been honest in saying he doesn’t have a Chrystal ball. He’s just looked at how BTC has behaved historically and uses its history to speculate how we could be moving in the future. And he’s always said at some point BTC will change its behaviour, but so far it’s maintained it’s 4 year cycles

NerdgirlfromTX

BTC is my apocalypse money since PQC hasn’t been implemented yet really I just hold mine. At the end of the world comes my money might be obsolete and I figure bitcoin would probably work lol once PQC is implemented I might cash mine out.

unvac

Exactly. People here seem to have a memory span of about three candles. BTC pumps 3–5% and suddenly everyone’s talking like a new bull market has been confirmed, completely forgetting the 20–40% drawdown that came before it. Then it drops 10% in a day and the same people act shocked, as if Bitcoin hasn’t been doing this for years. Short-term price action is mostly noise. A green candle doesn’t automatically mean trend reversal, just like one red candle doesn’t mean Bitcoin is dead. If your entire thesis changes every time the hourly chart changes colour, you probably never had a thesis to begin with. That’s the difference between having conviction and just reacting emotionally to whatever the chart did that afternoon.

T_sauce9112

Funny story, I had 10k in 2012. I sat down and asked my self, should I put it all in BTC or gold ans silver. I chose gold and silver 🤣🤣🤣 I prosmised I will Never make that mistake again...

GlitteringPut3650

You would still be liquidating BTC if you pay a mortgage with it. It sounds nice, but it’s the same thing as you selling BTC yourself and using that cash to pay your mortgage

Dehyak

I basically do, but I do get curious whenever BTC moves. But I know, for me, I’m buying now and until the end of this year. Ignoring it until 2029, then sell

mrjune2040

Cycles are absolute bullshit purported by bullshiters. NOBODY can extrapolate out any kind of pattern/projection based on a limited dataset of high volume trading of a young asset class that barely goes past ten years (because no, the MtGox and BTC-e years don’t count, liquidity was still laughable).

UrbanGrower187

You’re proving my point by continuing to debate the wording instead of the argument. 😂 “Vast majority” isn’t some extraordinary absolute claim it means **most people**, not everyone. Given that the vast majority of the world owns zero BTC, saying I own more BTC than the vast majority of people is simply context for why I don’t need to take ridiculous additional risk to prove I’m bullish. You can call it a flex if you want. That doesn’t change the argument: **being confident in an investment does not mean rational risk management suddenly stops applying.** And yes, language matters which is why changing the subject from my investment argument to whether you personally liked my word choice isn’t actually a rebuttal. 😂

DerpSkeeZy

I mean to each their own but objectively we haven't made a higher high yet. Once we break above 83k (the May high) that's the time to get hyper-bullish. In either case, BTC is in a win-win scenario right now. **Either the 4 year cycle goes like people want/expect and we can accumulate more for the low or we are in a bull market and going higher.** Pointless argument at this point in time.

ImMaury

Many exchanges don’t support lightning, and you gotta buy BTC in the first place

unperson

Can you show me one instance of “everyone looking at that giant BTC candle and screaming”? You’re cringe bro. No wonder your ai is also cringe.

Abject-Stretch-1187

Don’t worry buddy, the bottom will wait just for you and your cyclist friends. This sounds so much like disbelief. You do realize that cycles were meant to be broken right? And while they’re breaking, they often don’t feel like they’re breaking in the moment. Smart people recognize the breakage in real time while regards stick their head in sand claiming it’ll break in the future but not while it’s breaking in front of their eyes. What else do you need to see happen before you consider the possibility that it is breaking right now? ATH? You also do know that BTC has a bigger chance of closing this year in green than falling to 40k right?

ImMaury

Maybe saving like $1 on BTC fees

TheRicFlairDrip

Clarity doesnt even directly affect BTC

gringovato

When I'm on the fence one thing I find is just do half of what I was thinking. It eases the psychological burden. BTW I'm holding bags since 90k. The only signal I've seen work is when expectations, such as this case w/ the clarity act. Everyone was expecting BTC to fall if the act didn't pass (which as always going to be the case, for now).

HorsedickGoldstein

I’d stick with BTC and ETH

Project_Demosthenes_

Just dca BTC and spx

BetterFunny6883

So think about it again, see the block reward by 2036 will touch 0.39 BTC per block mined and tommone that it will take around $100k of more worth of electricity so you see where the math is going....if still not convinced then watch this full first and do your own homework: https://youtu.be/hqoagNBtIps

ikkiyikki

Yeah OP, I know that coming here slinging this kind of talk gets you cold stares but, yeah, you basically nailed it. If BTC was even a fraction of what it was supposed to be we'd be well ahead of where we are by now. I think what this stagnation really means is that there's a lot of people not willing to sell and a lot of other people not willing to buy with this net result. Every so often some players try to shake things up looking to see which side blinks first, gets bored and taps out.

riseandride69

and is this "everyone who is looking at that giant green BTC candle and screaming" in the same room with us?

Easy_Reflection_9128

What I am holding is sol, link, xrp, avax These are relatively safe coins. But best is to put in BTC for beginners

Good_Extension_9642

Funny how every single time BTC starts pumping people get FOMO but never when it's dumping

LavoP

ETH probably. BTC is safest but it’s not good if you want to actually enter and learn about crypto. ETH is the right way to get into crypto applications, adoption, and tech.

compute_fail_24

I hold some GME still but I replaced much of it for BTC. Cohen is a shady guy. I believe in BTC and I think GME is an interesting gamble

Sastroprawiro

Don't get me wrong, I like BTC, but more as a store of value because in the end it will outperform and increase in value more than LTC would ever be. So, LTC to p(l)ay or send money to fam abroad, and BTC to hold. Until when? I dunno, my kids may decide...

Exact-Ad-8325

Noted: Rent a car, all in BTC

Walla_Walla_26

Just use good ole cashola and don’t touch that BTC. You have too much invested my man

pjb1999

My report says $2M BTC so...

cjdangles

There is no correct answer besides BTC. The alt coin game is so old and stale at this point. The only people left swimming in the alt coin pool are scammers and delusional idiots.

tenor_tymir

How much of that is BTC now ?

ThePredictorHQ

Shorting BTC is basically paying tuition to the market.

Sastroprawiro

I see BTC as an investment (you buy and you keep) like gold. And LTC as a payment asset (you buy and you spend it) like...well...digidollars. It's not the silver to BTC like a lot of cryptonatians are saying. But hey, I can't predict the future and this is what I see right now :)

Reach_Beyond

Eventually everyone who owns a whole BTC will have their own wiki page.

StPeir

Not by shorting BTC….. I mean considering the jump yesterday I assume we can thank all the shorts for the cascade of liquidation that pushed it higher. I would call that the “Find out” phase.

Thatworkedoutgreat

All the money flowing into BTC had been from parties hoping for 100x+ gains. Those days are over and since there is no real added business value from BTC it will slowly dry out from now on.

texannebraskan214

Yes dump everything into BTC! It is only going up until it goes down then up and down.

DasRedBeard87

Some years ago I got a scam email, not BTC related, and I immediately knew what it was. Out of curiosity I emailed back asking how often this shit works and they actually replied "You'd be surprised" so they're probably making a decent payday from these. I mean there's still people questioning why bother with a cold wallet.

AeonPeter

BTC + SPX6900, but do your due diligence before buying anything or listening to anyone.

Competitive_Cook_939

Why not do this at BTC 60k brother

Interesting-Gear-992

This is a popular saying. :) If we look at history, it is usually worth buying on Monday evening (UTC), weekend increases usually fall back on Monday. But this is not a golden rule, anything can happen. If you plan to hold it for the long term, then it doesn't matter when you buy. It is psychologically difficult if they fall back after buying, it happened to me many times. But in this case, remember that that BTC is already there and it is yours, and that is what really matters.

Interesting-Gear-992

The best day to buy BTC is yesterday. The second best is today.

GoldParticular3093

My advice is sell everything you have (House, PC , phone, appliances, your mother's jewelry) to buy more BTC

WeGottaTalkAboutYT

Just but BTC

Awkward_Potential_

I've already returned my initial investment back to BTC. House money at this point. 

MIP_PL

That was my point. Measuring BTC value using magic printer paper money also known as fed notes is the wrong way to begin with. The right way is “how much stuff will I be able to buy with 1 BTC in five years”