BTC

GoldZ31

Price in Nov 2013 was $1000 per coin. I purchased some with a loan. Price in Jan 2014 was $200 per coin. I felt like the world biggest idiot. I had just lost an uncomfortable amount of money to me at that time. It fell so low so fast I just assumed that it was all lost and BTC was going to zero. I didn’t sell mostly because of my personal shame and I wanted to ride the ship down to zero. I have held since. I took some out to pay off the original loan. But I’m happy with where things stand now. It’s been over 10 years and i hope one day i can do the whole generational wealth thing.

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Signal-Fig-2952

Yes, I think Bitcoin is a legit asset worth holding under the right circumstances. I seethe when Buttcoiners call it a Ponzi scheme when literally nobody controls it. My own strategy is to buy only in bear markets with an aim to accumulate to 1.2-1.4 total BTC, then I’ll stop. I have DCAed quite a bit over the past year, but will stop when we approach ATHs.

TheresNoSecondBest

That's just another shitcoin, mate. Zoom out to 10 years and compare it to BTC. It's constantly losing value in sats. I wouldn't HODL it long time.

reddit4485

>The problem is that the security budget is also decreasing. So the ratio of the amount of BTC being protected to the amount of security provided by PoW is halving every epoch. Only if you budget in terms of bitcoin which makes no sense. The security budget has actually increased in dollars. This is more important because electricity, miners, etc are priced in dollars. When you consider the dollar reward it's gone up substantially. Halfening date, reward, price per bitcoin, and total reward in $ Nov. 28, 2012 50 BTC $12.35 $617.50 July 9, 2016 25 BTC $650 $16,250 May 11, 2020 12.5 BTC $8,600 $107,500 April 20, 2024 6.25 BTC $63,800 $398,750

BeaverSack

I’ve been holding for years but I’m starting to get a bad feeling about the future of BTC

EarningsPal

BTC needs fiat money to continue as is. As the money supply continues to increase, and enough people are still holding that melting unit, this give the BTC holders the advantage through time. Fair would be a world where the units paid to the people that never decided anything would hold purchasing power.

penty

My first buys from a small kiosk setup in Second Life in small amounts in case or was a scam. I didn't want to carry a wad of cash to an in-person meetup or do (e)mailing a check and hoping. So it seemed the safest. Previously the btc was on bitfinex, during the hack, and polinex (?). They has a system to lend out BTC to options traders for % that was pretty high. You'll have to forgive me for not sharing my current storage method(s).

Signal-Fig-2952

My own opinion is Bitcoin is a mature asset and past performance will not guarantee future returns. As crypto matures and blockchains are adopted more broadly across real world financial systems, Bitcoin will capture some of that growth, as it’s still considered the blue chip asset for anyone new to investing in this space. I would be happy with a 5-year average annualized return of 15%. If BTC can’t perform to that benchmark, I’m not sure it’s worth the volatility and risk to hold it.

ByteSize_Chaos

I think most of us would agree. $ is a shit coin as well. So replace it with BTC while you can 🙏🏻

kljsandjb

Don't think BTC can ever beat QQQ in the future

tenor_tymir

Balls of steel. I don’t know if I could simply sit through such a drawdown. Especially since it wasn’t clear at all *if* BTC would ever come back. Today it’s easier to have higher conviction after all we can look back to.

jordonschlansky

The way to look at BTC at this point is as a store of value for cash you want to save, not as a exponential growth vehicle. I personally am looking at SPX6900 fo those early BTC type returns.

devCheckingIn

I see Strive announced they're offering a new preferred stock that will be paying 15% dividends. What, SATA paying 13% wasn't good enough to raise money to buy BTC?

nyg420

It absolutely is still good to DCA and especially when a major crash happens, that's where you'll make the most money. When BTC drops 60-80% as it does ever 4 years or so, and then bounces back 300% to a new ATH, you'd be making lots of money if you bought a lot at that low. DCA and forget about it for 10+ years and you'll be happy you did.

jashanjeet

Out of BTC but now owing ibit @ avg of 67k which I am not planning to sell. I know a lot of people will say not real bitcoin lol but I care about gains and not paying taxes so etf is working for me

Revoinvest

Use dollar instead of BTC, it is too valuable. You do not want to be like the Pizza guy a decade ago.

powerguy134

You’d be worried about a million other things before you cared about the price of BTC if that ever happened.

schnaeggli

Well you got your answer. DCA BTC underperforms trad markets in that particular 5 year window. ( last ATH to end of Bear ) If you take a 4 year window from today it will look better and imo more accurate ( end of bear to end of bear) It’s clearly slowing down from early euphoria years. Yet still a great performing asset I am happy to hodl and add a bit more sometimes.

RareVibeDelight

I appreciate the work you put into the simulation, and I understand what you’re saying about diminishing returns. But I think we’re looking at two different things. Your simulation measures historical investment returns, while I’m looking at DCA-ing as a long-term accumulation strategy. 1 BTC = 1 BTC. For me, it’s about consistently acquiring more sats over time, regardless of price, without trying to time the market. I’ve been DCA-ing for a long time through the ups and downs, and I plan to keep going. Nobody knows what Bitcoin will look like in another 10 or 20 years Running my own node, verifying instead of trusting, and understanding self-custody and sovereignty are all part of that journey. 🧡🚀

BeachTime0734

Finally a post from someone with common sense. As I read through most of these posts, the sheer stupidity, ignorance, and just plain idiotic jibberish is what I’m reading. To me it sounds almost like some sort of SiFi script or something. A bunch of scared people trying to hide their stash of BTC… I used to like BTC, but as I get older I think it was one of the stupidest things ever created. Real money talks… Bullshit walks!

PrivacyPuddingScreen

There are firms and entities out there that will out trade you. If your thesis is that BTC will go up in the long run, buy and hold. If you want to reduce your volatility exposure, buy options and run a covered call strategy or something that fits your needs.

SMB-Punt

You don’t compare BTC by years ??

0a0d0s0

OK, I've run some numbers for you! Using my Bitcoin Lifespan Simulator, one scenario suggests that investing around €100 a month over 15 years could leave you with approximately 0.0847 BTC by 2041. If Bitcoin reaches the modelled price of $1.29M by then, that would give you **a portfolio worth around $109,000.** Now compare that with putting €100 a month into a bank account over the same period: * 0% interest: €18,000 * 2% interest: approximately €21,000 * 4% interest: approximately €24,600 And that's before accounting for inflation. Of course, the Bitcoin figures are just a simulation, not a prediction. The outcome could be significantly better or worse, and unlike bank savings, Bitcoin carries substantial price risk. But I think it illustrates something interesting... just because we missed Bitcoin's extraordinary early years doesn't necessarily mean DCA has lost its appeal.

maxrz93

The declining volatility of Bitcoin makes it now less interesting for many gamblers. Because its « get rich quick » potential has decreased. Now the only events that could make it jump x10+ in a very short term are huge inflation, or total confidence loss in governments / banking systems. So basically it wouldn’t be a great news to me if BTC surges like it did before 2022 But DCA remains interesting on this asset now more like a protection in case of dark moments. And it’s still volatile so there is still room for strong performance. Those are my humble thoughts.

djrion

You should earn enough money to do it all. But the entire market (ie VT) and then speculate no more than 1-5% of your net worth on riskier assets such as BTC.

Slipperfox

Nope BTC is dead, stack fiat

Blue-Raisin

De ce que je vois sur Proton Wallet (j'ai test avec 10 euros) je ne peux pas vendre, je dois d'abord transférer le BTC (sur Revolut par exemple) mais je voyais plutôt Proton comme une solution pour ne rien faire quoiqu'il arrive pendant au moins 10 ans... Car si je vends, je risque d'utiliser l'argent :/ je suis prête à parier sur le long terme même si ça doit terriblement baisser parfois

Lefties_TheWorst7331

Me with 90% of my portfolio in BTC 😎

Lefties_TheWorst7331

People who go by/use "fibonacci" shit when world events have more effect on price than any form of TA ever will blows my mind.. some clown told me BTC was going to $2k last cycle because of "fibonacci" 🤣

securityguardnard

# Bitcoin analysis as of Oct 18, 2026 Bitcoin is trading at about **$81,700**, roughly 35% below its all-time high of about $126,000 (Oct 6, 2025). |Window|Start price|Change to today|High|Low| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Since inception (Oct 2009)|\~$0.001\*|\~+8.2 billion %|\~$126,000|\~$0| |10 years (Oct 2016)|\~$640\*|\~+12,700% (\~62%/yr)|\~$126,000|\~$600\*| |5 years (Oct 2021)|\~$61,500\*|\~+33% (\~6%/yr)|\~$126,000|\~$15,500\*| |1 year (Oct 2025)|\~$108,000|**-24.5%**|\~$110,000\*|\~$57,800| |6 months (Apr 2026)|\~$75,500\*|**+8%**|\~$87,250|\~$57,800| |3 months (Jul 18)|\~$64,800|**+26%**|\~$87,250|\~$62,800| |1 month (Sep 18)|\~$80,000\*|**\~+2%**|\~$87,250|\~$80,300| |1 week (Oct 11)|\~$83,000|**-1.6%**|\~$84,100|\~$80,700| |Today|\~$81,400|**\~+0.2%**|\~$81,960|\~$80,655| \*Estimate or from my own memory rather than a source I checked today. See the caveats at the end. # What drove each window * **Since inception:** Bitcoin went from a tenth of a cent to six figures. The big steps were the 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025 cycle peaks, each followed by a crash of 50% to 93%. Spot ETFs were approved in 2024. * **10 years:** This window includes most of the early-cycle gains. The growth rate has faded as the asset has grown. * **5 years:** You’d be up about 33%, or roughly 6% a year, even though the price is far above the 2021 low. The 2021 peak (\~$69k) was followed by a 2022 crash and then the 2025 high. * **1 year:** The decline reflects the post-peak correction. A Feb 2026 selloff took the price to about $63,000, with drivers cited including the U.S.–Iran crisis and money rotating from Bitcoin ETFs into AI stocks. The low came in June at about $57,800, when the price fell about 18% in the month and the Fear & Greed Index hit “Extreme Fear” (15). * **6 months:** The price rose from about $75,000 to a peak near $83,000 in May. It then dropped to the June low and recovered sharply. * **3 months:** This is the rebound. August gained about 25% and September about 8%, and sentiment moved from fear toward greed. * **1 month:** September’s rally topped out around $86,600 on Sep 21, after the Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% on Sep 16, and the price has chopped sideways since. Headwinds include August CPI at 3.4%, Brent crude near $103, and the failed CLARITY Act Senate vote. * **1 week:** The price slipped about 3% in the first part of the week. A weak September jobs report (+29k) briefly lifted it, but spot ETFs saw about $681 million in net outflows over Oct 5–9, and about $1 billion in profit-taking was reported around Oct 8. * **Today:** Very thin weekend trading, with about 657 BTC of volume on Kraken. Nothing is moving the price until US ETF flow data and futures markets reopen Monday. Upcoming catalysts are the FOMC decision on Oct 28 and Deribit options expiry on Oct 30. # Summary The longer trend is still strongly up, but returns have been shrinking cycle after cycle. The 1-year picture is negative because the price is still recovering from the October 2025 peak. Over the past 3 to 6 months it has rebounded about 26% from the summer lows and is now stuck in a range of roughly $80,000 to $87,000. Short-term direction depends on the Fed, inflation and oil, and ETF flows. Some analysts say Bitcoin has exited its bear market, citing a move back above its 365-day moving average. Others point out that the all-time high is still far away, and none of this is a forecast. This is analysis, not financial advice.

Iloveanime223

Mistake people make is they think investing in BTC and DCAing will make them lots of money. BTC is all about strategic moves.

Content_Researcher21

They just keep diluting the dollar and telling us its fine, the image comparing the supply numbers makes it so obvious Like 164k new BTC vs god knows how many trillions printed, its not even close in the long run

FitCompetition1804

I started off with Trust wallet in the early 2020’s when I didn’t know what I was doing, bought a small amount of BTC via MoonPay, another sign I didn’t know what I was doing. But even I knew to buy at $16k in 2022. If I knew what I was doing I would have bought far more. Finally educated myself early this year as I was waiting for the next Bitcoin dump to get serious about it. Yes, both Strike and River are top tier BTC exchanges, especially if you take advantage of their free DCA.

TickleMeLexus

Another point for Strike. And they’re offering 3.6% interest rate on cash. The interest is paid out in BTC. I think it’s a nice deal.

Technical_Emu_8567

BTC will be worth more when measured against the dollar? So will the SPY, the Qs and a Kit Kat bar.

EstimateIll4262

3 month blackout?? And you are worried about BTC?? That would be end of days. Guns and ammo would be the most valuable. Since you can just take by force what you need or want.

Impressive_Pilot8415

$10K BTC, $10K QNT. (I would buy in 2 time frames, 1 now and 1 in 1 month i.e. $5K each buy). Keep $5K in cash to invest if market drops. Its always good to have some cash on sidelines (No ETH, QNT will outperform ETH over next 2 years) BTC will take off again (only matter of time) and QNT only has 168K holders - still largely unknown to most + latest Clearly House news is only 1 use case for Quant. Both BTC & QNT has true scarity. Not many other investments compare to this scarcity.

daysonjupiter

There are complete guides for the Jade and Jade + like complete walkthroughs from start to finish on YouTube. For example „BTC sessions“. Watch it

Easymacsauce

Yes, the app just displays the amount of BTC your address has.

Several_Razzmatazz71

Bitcoin was created, like you think BTC just has always existed? It's just a protocol.

Interesting-Creme-65

Just look into how monetary debasement and BTC interact. The whole premise of btc is to hold value against fiat currency printing is what I am saying. When your dollar buys less because there are a trillion more of them in circulation BTC will be worth more when measured against the dollar. I have a portion of my portfolio in BTC as an alt asset. I still believe in equity growth and the vast majority of my assets are in equities and fixed income. It's worth a small allocation as a hedge for debasement trade.

shpeucher

Wrong sub.. even if you were trading BTC the underlying situation doesn’t have to do with this asset

Nervous_Shape_7469

Bro ,come on now . I'm prob the most positive person ever ... Always see opportunity in literally everything even if it doesn't work out ... But acting like you have the answers to everything and you're some BTC 'Shaman' is awesome . We can be anything and anyone on the internet right 😆😆😆

Nervous_Shape_7469

I bought ~ 90% of my BTC in October 2023 when it was at ~ $36k / BTC but NO ONE knows when the "floor" will be ,not even you 😭 But as I mentioned above , most that have held for min of 5 years,is in profit . Now that doesn't mean it'll work out like that for you but the odds of holding 5 years or longer,you'll be in profit. If ya can't do that and are too scared then just invest in S&P and avg ~ 7-9 % APR ... factoring in inflation. Lol 😆

Nervous_Shape_7469

Well , a really good rule when buying BTC is to plan on HOLDING for at least 5 years. Most that have held for 5+ years has been in profit .

Renowned_Molecule

BTC Miners? AKA centralized decision making? 

Trick_Alternative187

25k is a lot, but not for crypto. My recommendation if you insist on crypto is buying ETH and holding on to it without even looking at it at all. But personally I would put it on something less volatile like the SP500, mostly because it will grow slowly but surely and it will pay you dividends. But for crypto ETH or BTC but you would need to hold it until you think ur done (like 2 years)

flyingdutchmnn

Isn't it because it trades sorry of leveraged? The mstr highs were much higher than for BTC

followplant

Be patient. The good time is coming and I can tell you hundred different reasons why. (I bought my first BTC in 2015)

Wide_Financial

Takes some serious level of stupidity to put your recovery phrase online. You deserve losing that BTC.

Interesting-Creme-65

Because all equities values are measured in currency that can be debased. BTC is not a equity it is a commodity with a fixed supply that cant help but go up as currency is debased.

CallMeDaddy79-

Funny BTC hit its low in August exactly 4 years after it dropped below $20k. Ijs

marco-nett

I don't think you understand the definition of intrinsic value... because if you did .. you would realize thag you literally defined it ... which is why fiat is valuable... which is why BTC is valuable.. today people value it and want it more than in 2009 .... the intrinsic value is high.... hence the high cost ! .... literally intrinsic value to someone.

Savik519

2040 and BTC is only $600k? Must be a deep bear market

_PolyWasp_

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Present_Let2487

This is pretty cool tbh, i like the idea of having all the BTC markets in one place instead of jumping between events. It would be interesting to see how the forecast performs over time.

Even-Temperature3103

Excited here.. I bought soda, treats and fueled up at my local ARCO with BTC. Consumer acceptance alive and well in WA state. Laundromat, HD, WMT and all my trading platforms are taking BTC for funding. Same with prediction platforms, landlords and local hookers... 😉

bcalicoredfs

I get the overarching sentiment here but I remember a time that KYC wasn't like a reason for people to steal BTC. And there was a big question then whether or not stuff was actually "YOURS" on a CEX. I guess we are all the way back to banks and assets. I'm sure this guy is probably shady as well but OG btcers probably remember a pretty different time where this convo is unthinkable

SadOrder8312

BTC kinda needs the Internet.

ProfitWise3630

Definitely worth checking custody and liquidation terms first. 👀 I’d compare Coindepo with other platforms before committing BTC.

rauzzz_z

Ehi, these are the same people that promise you BTC to 1M

JuanBurley

I think BTC has become like any other commodity or asset subject to supply and demand, and it's tied to other global markets and economy's (s much as we like to espouse that it isn't). As holders need more money (as you still can't regularly use BTC as an everyday currency) to buy goods, or they lose confidence in the greater economy, or they see a trend of BTC going down, they sell, that drives down the price with there being more supply than demand. Suddenly consumer confidence rises, or people have a little more money to invest in something so they start buying BTC. More and more you can see BTC mirror global money supplies and equity markets, not exactly, but the trend is there. Economy improves so does BTC, economy tanks BTC dips. Right now, with a lot of global pressures BTC is lower. There's less free flowing capital to buy it. Markets will correct and supply will reduce and value will increase.

jasonslpt

Your ladder skips the zone where forced selling is actually stacked right now. With BTC near 81.25K, the nearest long liquidation pool sits around 81.1K and the largest, about $445M, is near 80.8K, so I lean toward a flush there before anything deeper. Moving one of the 44K or 48K orders up to the 80.8K area would let it catch that sweep. The lean is wrong if price reclaims 81.4K and holds, since then 82.8K is the next magnet. The leveraged longs sitting on top of you are effectively your discount coupon. Not advice.

jasonslpt

Rough week for anyone who levered into this. BTC around 81.25K has about $255M of long liquidations stacked at 81.1K to 81.15K and a bigger $445M pool near 80.8K, and almost every liquidation in the last hour was a long. I lean lower into 80.8K first. Wrong if price reclaims 81.4K and holds, which opens a run toward 82.8K. Somewhere a 50x long is explaining to a landlord what a wick is. Not advice.

BedBubbly317

Since 2022, you lost money putting it in BTC compared to any standard mutual fund instead. Let alone hundreds of individual stocks. The price action of it is the most important factor for 99% of the population, and quite literally the one and only factor that matters to the vast majority of the world.

Kokolol_0

Nah you need 21 BTC, keep working

Realistic_Fee_00001

Posted 3 Month ago... here comes a brainlet with the dumbest argument ever. Why did you assume: - I sold my BTC - I'm not already rich and do this for financial sovereignty - I have heavy BCH bags in the first place 🤷‍♂️

VettaQ

A fixed yield on a non-yielding asset has only three possible sources, and it is worth pinning down which one before anything else: lending the underlying out (your counterparty risk moves to the borrower), selling options against it (caps the upside, eats the tails), or new money coming in (the reserve-then-capital-raise structure described in the filing). None of the three is automatically bad, but they fail in different ways. The useful question for a 15% number on BTC is what the payout does in a drawdown year: a fixed dividend is a stable liability sitting on volatile collateral, and the gap has to be bridged by one of those three mechanisms. Which one it is tells you what you actually own.

seansy5000

Stack sats and STFU. The more you people talk the more you miss out. The only thing that has changed with this rhetoric over time is the price of BTC. This type of comment was just as widely used when BTC was 6k. It’s surface level nonsense.

read_more_comments

You just be doing something sketchy, I've never had issues with Coinbase even with six figure withdrawals. You can also buy in fidelity crypto, let's you transfer in and out BTC direct. But the fee is higher than Coinbase. 1%

CortadoOat

Are you diversified in your overall investments? I mean, even investing in the SP500 could put you in the red after 3 years depending on sequence of returns. I have no clue where BTC will go from there, but 2 years is still very short term. The question is if you still believe in it enough to either stay in or jump ship without doing both over and over.

pickin-n_grinnin

You are in the bear market of an asset on a 4 year cycle.... Do the math lol. It's the buying now that will put you in a better position in the future. Also, just DCAing in is fine but there is nothing wrong with being strategic about when you actually buy. I only buy on days when every one else is selling. On days every one is buying. I'm selling. Any BTC I have that was bought under 45k is staked and earning me interest. As time goes on and what I believe the new floor will be. That will get staked in the future. This is a long game plan you have entered into. Not a get rich sceme. Put your time in. You're not even through one cycle. That said. DCA into BTC should only be one part of your strategy. There are plenty of assets that will make you as much or more than BTC and diversity in a portfolio is essential.

Due-Candy-8929

Depends what kind of returns they want to see… wouldn’t be surprised to see alts like ETH XRP etc massively out perform BTC… and then smaller caps massively outperform them… $10k in an XRP that goes from $1.30 to $5 is better than $10k in BTC that goes from $81k to $250k. $10k in $0.08 HBAR that goes to $1 is better again Putting the full $25k in a HYSA and collecting 5% a year is safe but not necessarily better Even the SnP isn’t guaranteed - it might do 8-12% on average but there’s always a chance it will trend downward for years as well It seems dangerous buying metals after they have run hard as well Personally I much prefer to diversify

Key-Enthusiasm-3403

the thing id want to see is how past forecasts did. if it says 80% between $71k and $96k, did BTC land inside that range about 8 times out of 10 over the last few months? thats a quick calibration check and it would tell you if the confidence score means anything same itch as a game i made (mine, disclosing, its on my profile) where you call real charts with pretend money and it scores you against chance. dont know how that translates to market odds though

tenor_tymir

How did they get ahold of your BTC? Did you enter your key on a website? *Did you really?*

macetheface

HBAR had a few pumps coinciding with the bull run same as ADA but other than that it's a stablecoin. Many other coins the same way. Now look at the lows. There might be outliers but BTC is one of the only ones to consistantly trend up over time. OP is looking to 'invest'. BTC makes the most sense imo.

BourbonWen

Bright side....you're 2 years ahead of anyone with 0.0 BTC. The glass is half full.

Leynnox

Idk, I open my portfolio only when I'm transferring more BTC in it, then I close it

12buklmashu

You should be investing in BTC regardless of whether a state or province is trying to secede. It’s the only crypto worth investing in.

fittes7

1. "Wasting my time" - well, what time? I'm pretty sure you don't have anything better to do so don't accuse BTC of wasting your unvaluable time. 2. DCA is for uneducated fools, if you are too lazy to educate your self and choosing a dumb way to invest then you can't cry when you're not getting compensated 3. BTC MEANT to be hedge for inflation, but in its current state of market cap IT CANNOT be hedge against inflation, and that'd be lesson #1 if you chose to educate yourself rather than listen to what "they" tell you to do.

Ok_Menu_1675

I mean, the cycle is pretty much on point except that it’s end seems to have happened a deviation of a month. I think that if a cycle takes 4 yrs, a month deviation is allowed. My personal view is that if we don’t go into some kind of ‘00 or ‘08 crash, then BTC is on its way to complete the cycle again. Another drop may be coming, though - this time coupled to a broader market crash. However, I think BTC will not make a new lower low. Maybe 60s? Who knows, it’s just me guessing. And to be fair to B. Cowen - although he messed it up a bit, he has always been saying to DCA in the second part of the midterm year. I didn’t listen so I am following my own plan now.

Doctor_Fritz

Before that pump in BTC, Trump posted on his truth social shit that it was time to buy all the crypto. Shortly after there was an announcement of bond buybacks which pushed crypto up as well. It was the culmination of a ton of fomo after the trump post and a short squeeze all rolled into one. The price movement here is not systemic. The push up triggered more fomo from ETF buyers, puching the price a little higher. But then look at the current climate. Interest rates and inflation are soaring, making highly volatile tech holdings less interesting in favor of bonds. Yet, still crypto soared like this? It doesn't make sense. The S&P500 reached ATH at the behest of a handful of megacaps all tied to a circular self financing scheme leaning on AI infrastructure buildouts. The rest of the stocks on the US market are down 20% or so on average. Pumptober created an uptick for a bit but it seems to me that whales are now looking to unload their pumped up crypto onto unsuspecting bag holders after a few months of (relatively) sideways movement. I think it'll dump after the elections beginning November. this is my own opinion, not financial advice.

Savings-Leading4618

They will pour into bitcoin after bitcoin has done a 3-4x in 3 years. That will mark the top, that will be when all the big whales that are buying now will sell for a profit, and will mark the beggining of a very nasty bear market, just like the one we just had. For now, enjoy the next 3 years, they'll be good for BTC.

Due-Candy-8929

BTC didn’t even do a 2x from its high last cycle…. Alts fell but saw higher % gains… HBAR is down now but did over 800% last cycle

retracement

I'll be frank. I dont think BTC is for you. It's not a get rich scheme, and the only thing that is truly predictable is it's unpredictability. If you are not prepared to hold for up to 10 years with the view that you might still lose everything, then I think you should "invest" in a fund. That will generally give you the predictable growth you are seeking. BTC represents my high risk asset. Some times I start doubting and other times I am 1000% certain, but I always know I'm holding every coin regardless until I hit my target price. When that happens Ill still keep holding a % for the future.

Sudden_Onions

Why would Russia be more open to BTC? It seems to me that they're the textbook case of a country with a relatively wealthy middle class who might want to escape the country with as much wealth as possible. From a government POV they seem the most likely not to want private citizens using anything but roubles.

Sweet_Scratch7059

5K into BTC and 20K into spx6900. Barbel IYKYK

Satoshi-Wasabi8520

Wait until 15 years. What was the price of BTC in 2012?

sjnyo

BTC is a speculative risk asset and in no way a hedge against inflation or currency debasement

NorthComparison4356

at Russia they banned transactions to self custody wallets - which is just strangling BTC - as its all about sovereignty - its so stupid - I was full of hope that in Russia they would be more open to BTC, but no way - and I guess EU will do the same one day - one country after the other - the parasites running our states cant stand that we plebs do with our earned money what we want, they use our money to control us. I know they cant control btc, but they can strangle all ways to aquire it and hold it in self custody…..

Double-Code1902

And you adjust every Sunday and just basically buy on the dips? And it is 1x 2x 3x in terms of sizing? I am trying to figure out the approach as well. I was thinking of using some trailing period average volatility range and adjust each week. But it sounds like BTC basically has some consistency such that buying only on dips within the week catches the upsides? The one thing I heard was that we don’t want to miss the top 10 days. This captures those?

Shoddy_Peanut7320

It's usually both, and you can tell which part dominates by timing. The inflation print is the trigger, but a big move down on the release that gets bought back within hours looks like positions being forced out, because the data didn't change and only the leverage did. Liquidation numbers and funding rates before the move tell you how crowded the longs were, and a quick check is whether funding was unusually high going into the print. For altcoins, I'd wait until BTC has stopped moving for a day or two before deciding anything, because correlations jump during a flush and almost everything looks weak for the same reason. Cymetica's Funding Rate Radar shows perp funding across venues side by side, which is one way to see how crowded things were.

AmoebaFar8564

No, i dont think so. You have BTC bought @120k and now its only 80k, its clear to think wasted your time. But Go on with IT, you wont regret, after the next halving the Price If BTC will increased heavily cause the Block rewards are so tiny that many think Mining is use-less. Now you have the Chance to buy @80k, dont sell IT with loss! Wait the next halving, its 2028 i think..after that you will earn your hard Work i promise!

IdleHandsRapidFlight

Wake up and smell the roses OP. People clamour about the old days when there were 10,000 transactions and a million wallets. Now there's 200 million wallets and a billion transactions a year, and as people die or forget passwords we lose access to BTC over time, and now institutions make the moves. Not people.  you LOST money to inflation and lack of dividends. Big time. 

AmoebaFar8564

The Idea after the lehman-incident and the following economic downturn Worldwide was to create a payment method Not controlled from anybody, BTC was Made decentralized and this was the Main Idea that No big Bank or rich people can Control the financial system. What we did is BTC becoming centralized by big Tech firms, but BTC was the First try, the halving and growing difficulty was Not successful to stay decentralized and this is the Error, cause heavy difficulty=heavy Hardware and Power comsumption, this was Not Taken into account the consequences this will have! > But thats only my Personal Opionion, please DONT feel forced to Support it!

bigblackdikk

Since institutional money came in, BTC volatility has come down significantly and so have its gains. The US economy is debt driven and nobody wants to buy US debt now. Wealth is transitioning to tangible assets and fringe tangible assets called collectibles. Think art, vintage items like clothes, cars and collectible cards. I think you’ll make more returns collecting cards and art. I have. And crypto money is “magic money” which only becomes valuable when converting to real world stuff like tangible assets or holidays.

AmoebaFar8564

Yeah But without electricity after an atomic world war, you have nothing! By the way: when an atomic bombs explodes its spreading Out Not only Gamma Rays and fall-out, they destroy with a heavy EMP all electronics Like Chips, your BTC are digital how would you use it (in a baggy sag with lead protection?!) when we use atomic bombs on infrastructure, its gone with 21th century, we live in the stone age! But think positive: If the fall-out DONT hit you hard you can use guns, cause guns are Just mechanical and when they are Not melted we can kill the enemy with guns😜😅

WillDonJay

Here's an informative recent source regarding your question. (Please take the time to actually watch it.) Source: YouTube https://youtu.be/-r8aNg-uH3g Debt and interest rates are set to spike, which will make borrowing money more expensive, which will chill the economy. That usually chills the price of BTC. Yet the white house is talking about using inflation as a tool to deal with their deficit. The less a USD is worth, the lighter the trillions in debt the US has to service becomes. That looks to me like the textbook use case for BTC, a hedge against inflation and the devaluing of fiat. Sooo... I'm expecting volatility with a price crash. If it does, I'll gamble and stack while it's down, then wait a couple years. 

xDarkstar1

Maybe indicate having a smaller allocation in BTC? even 2-5% could work wonders and isnt enough to lose sleep over. Also their will be several pivotal moments in history where you could safely tell your parents about a safer buying opportunity. Obviously I could be wrong and the price rips from here on out but youll have pleanty of opportunities to find better entries over the years anyway.