BTC

xarips

He just sold 32 BTC. I cannot believe it

Nrs_Vecna

Endgame is saylor dumps the BTC on all exchanges simultanously, tanking price to around 30k and gets the fuck outta americas.

Nrs_Vecna

It's not about mathematics or finance, ıt's about perception. His flagship strategy is to buy and hodl BTC no matter what. Whats important is, it's now seen that this is not always the case. It's a proof of concept.

FullOf_Bad_Ideas

> not even sure why this is news Because Sailor did claim they'll never sell BTC in the past and right now it's technically not true anymore. This undermines a bit of his credibility and .. the thoughtfullness of his "strategy".

devCheckingIn

STRC will probably be the unwind of the MSTR ponzi scheme (and BTC as well). You can't promise 11.5% dividends when you have no income. 🤦‍♂️

XofHelix

‪It's the second sale in the company's history. The first was 704 $BTC in December 2022 for tax purposes during the bear market.‬

__redruM

Mechanically why? More sellers wanting to sell than buyers wanting to buy? Or news events? My guess, the Iranian Tolls using BTC aren’t as real as some thought. Also, there’s simply better speculative choices currently. Semiconductor stocks are in lunar orbit, and that’s where the interest is.

qp0n

This is concerning for investors... but this is 32 BTC we are talking about. They hold over 800,000

Yungpharao_oh

Couldn’t pay them in BTC?

Kareni_Davis

The macro overhang is the part most people skip. Rate environment, dollar strength, and risk-off sentiment all suppress BTC independent of crypto-native factors. It\`s not that bitcoin is broken, it\`s that the conditions that let it run - loose money, risk-on flows, retail fomo - aren\`t present right now. Waiting for a catalyst in a headwind environment just takes longer than people expect.

Known-Application106

The ponzi takes are overblown but the math doesn't lie — $120m/month in preferred share dividends means they can't just buy and HODL forever. 32 coins is nothing, but it shows the structure they built has real pressure points. Sideways BTC for too long and we'll see a lot more of these 'rounding error' sales.

likekoolaid

why is it a bad sign? it’s an expected obligation and they just purchased 25000 BTC less than a month ago at $74k so they sold 32 to pay their dividend at a slight profit

unknowngloomth

So, I guess BTC is hitting 16k. Come on, saylor. Bring BTC to 16k

TheHunterAmin

Man so much emotions here. "No 4 year cycle is dead". "Yes, BTC going to find a bottom in 1-2 years" Come on man. Its simple. The 4 year cycle is not dead. We are in a bear market and BTC finds a bottom around 365 days after the cycle peak. So that sept-oct. 60k wont be the bottom. We have still 4 months to go. We havent seen real fear yet. There is so much liquidity to pick up under 50k. Market makers wont waste that we are close there.

dripmaster6

Usually, because you can put it in a tax-free stocks and shares account, in my country, they removed any Bitcoin-related investments from brokers that allow you to hold it in that account, so you owe taxes. The workaround is MSTR, which tracks BTC and is avaliable tax free.

Crypto_future_V

​By rebalancing I mean adjusting internal liquidity or covering minor operational expenses/tax obligations without tapping into traditional fiat credit lines MicroStrategy holds over 843k BTC so a tiny $2.5M shift is just standard corporate treasury management to optimize their balance sheet not a change in their long-term conviction

heinzmoleman

People had unrealistic expectations for the last cycle and chose to ignore the diminishing returns. Because BTC didn't meet those expectations they refused to believe that the bull market was over. BTC has now entered its standard bear market. Next ATH per the cycle would come Fall of 2029.

gigasawblade

Selling 32 BTC is a pathetic message. It's not an amount that can pay anything, not even a day of STRC dividends alone. It decreased BTC/share. BTC price went down by like $1000. I see zero upsides

adler1959

32 BTC? Wake me up if they sell 32k or 320k

Phylaras

The title is misleading. It's 32 BTC. Or a few million. MSTR pays $120m+ a month in dividends. It makes no sense if that's the purpose.

rtt702

People forget BTC was between 16 and 20k a coin only a few years ago. BTC is just fine

bp-te

Cointerra terraminer was one of the bigger names back around 2012-2014 when I was looking into it. Claim was a guaranteed BTC every month from one miner. They cost about $1200 which was basically expecting you to pay for itself in Bitcoin after about a year I think. I didn't buy in. I've also bought in too late on other things and lost 6 figures. You make decisions and you live with them. Don't dwell on the past.

Crypto_future_V

This is huge for Bitcoin CFTC approving perpetual futures opens the door for more institutional flow and liquidity in the US keep pushing BTC

Virtual-Metal9290

I mailed an envelope of cash to a PO box and then prayed that BTC would show up in my wallet a week later. It worked out. Most people are honest.

EconomixNorth

While I do agree that macro landscape changed for BTC, I can't help byt notice the cycle is alive and kicking as of today. If and how low it will go probably depends more on the global market policies and liquidity.

No-Slide3465

Maybe they had 888,920 BTC. It would be understandable then.

Total_Cod_1111

You also will need to explain how your character even learned about BTC that early... I wish I had

u_spawnTrapd

Your friend is kind of right if we're talking about Bitcoin itself. Holding BTC doesn't generate cash flow the way a rental property or dividend stock might. Where the debate usually starts is that people use Bitcoin in ways that can produce yield, like lending or other financial products. The catch is that the yield comes with extra risk and often from a counterparty, not from Bitcoin magically creating income on its own. For me, the real question isn't whether it's possible, it's whether the added risk is worth it compared to just holding your own coins. That's where people tend to disagree.

Forded_Fiction24

Not true in the US at least with current tax code. Exchanging even without a conversion is considered a taxable event per the IRS as they still treat BTC as property, not currency. Their expectation is for you to calculate cost basis and tax burden from the time bought to the valuation and gains at the point it changed hands

Forded_Fiction24

I do this in addition to self custody. The tax advantage is just too lucrative to ignore. I went with IBIT and FBTC and to think if BTC gets to the valuation I expect it to over the next decade all those gains will be tax free. That's worth the risk of a custodian if you ask me

stuckInACallbackHell

BTC is just not attractive rn compared to US stocks. I prolly won’t ever sell but wouldn’t be surprised if it just does nothing for the next 3-5 years

Useful_Tangerine4340

Robert Kiyosaki just said bitcoin can prove costly after years of saying it is 'People's Money'. Even Mark Cuban just sold 80% of his BTC. after aggresisvely advocating for the token.

Godfreee

2009 was mining with basic computers. 50 BTC every ten mins up for grabs. By Oct 2008, New Liberty Standard set the first exchange rate, 1,309 BTC for $1, basing it on electricity consumption. And then people started selling on the Bitcointalk forum. By 2010, there was Mt.gox. Mosty it was P2P meet ups.

NiagaraBTC

The screenshot of an early faucet I recall seeing was 5 BTC (per day I assume)

ChangeNOW_Community

BTC is the macro anchor alts recover only when risk appetite + liquidity expand beyond BTC dominance

Omaha_Poker

Black Friday Poker shut down happened in the USA. Like everything that is banned, it just moved underground. Seals with Clubs came along and other people on 2+2 poker forum would sell BTC mostly via paypal or poker deposit. Players were vouched for and had long post historys.

VoDoka

You should assume, every crypto is a memecoin... the biggest bet is, that someone turns institutional investors into bag holders, for which BTC is clearly in the strongest position.

Mojoint

Didn't the US just "confiscate" a load of iranian BTC, does that not undermine the whole idea. (I have no idea)

MinimalGravitas

What is your theory on why each of those will accrue value? What mechanism is in place that will increase demand? All you are going to get here is people telling you to hold/buy whichever of those assets they are invested in (e.g. Bitcoin maxis will tell you to sell it all for BTC). If you want an unbiased opinion you are going to have to put the effort into building one yourself.

OwnConflict5118

This is false. It really will depend upon the business owners motivation. If the local gas station says gas is 4usd per gallon for cash and 4.10 USD per gallon for CC is that cash gasoline cheaper?  Yes, it is. Lol?  Some businesses will accept BTC only out of a desire to increase sales. But, some that are interested in owning btc may provide financial incentive to those paying in btc. 

Illustrious-Boss9356

I think ETH and SOL are sort of competitors in the same space. Chainlink is competing in the RWA/Oracle space. BTC is the only one w a unique space but it is the slowest and oldest tech of them all.

Rare_Rich6713

Buying more is one thing but making your existing stack work while you hold is the part most people overlook. Sitting on BTC for years earning nothing when there are now native yield options that don't require wrapping or handing your coins to anyone feels like leaving money on the table honestly.

Rare_Rich6713

With wrapped BTC or custodial lending yes, you're taking on bridge risk, custodian risk, and counterparty risk all at once while someone else books the spread. The more interesting designs emerging now push that risk toward the borrower rather than the BTC holder. Your collateral stays secured under predefined conditions, liquidation paths are written in at deposit time, and the yield comes from external chains paying for Bitcoin's security not from someone rehypothecating your stack behind the scenes. Still not risk free obviously. Oracle risk and liquidation risk are real. But at least it's risk you can actually understand and size accordingly rather than trusting a black box

Rare_Rich6713

There's no BTC staking in the traditional PoS sense. What's changed some projects figured out how to let you lock BTC using Bitcoin's own script conditions to help secure other chains. Your BTC never leaves Bitcoin, no wrapping involved. It's not staking in the Ethereum sense but the end result is similar, your BTC generates yield while staying in your control.

Fusobat

Me and my brother found BTC at .04 australian cents. We were going to buy $100 worth but the effort required we thought fuck it, nothing will happen.....well At the ATH we would have had about $450 million.......farrkk

arthurdentstowels

About 6 or so years ago my uncle passed away and he'd managed to get around 30ish BTC stored in his wallet. It was decided that it would be split 4 ways between her, myself and my 2 sisters. Great. I sat through every part of the process to explain it and everything went great, we all received our BTC in our wallets. I think it was worth about £5k at the time. The problem was that my mother decided that she knew what she was doing when it came to the Bitcoin gold that was earned on this and that it would also be split between us. Completely refused my help and decided to sort it herself. The next day I got a sheepish message asking if a transaction can be reversed, no it cannot. She had sent the BTG to a regular bitcoin address and it disappeared into the void. At the time it was worth about £25,000 or more and it was gone in a heartbeat. That was supposed to be split and help us with starting to get our own houses, but nobody will ever get it, just because she "knew what she was doing". I'm still pissed off.

Rare_Rich6713

It does through Babylon and the like, BTC is not bridged or wrapped. I think that's still the closest to native BTC staking.

MallInternational448

7.99% is genuinely competitive. Aven is pushing rates down, and that's good for everyone. But here's what's interesting to me. This product is a term loan with fixed LTV buckets (30%, 50%, 70%) and a liquidation ladder (lock at 70%, warning at 80%, kill at 85%). That's one philosophy: predictable, structured, but rigid. You get a 10 year window, but if BTC drops hard, you have 72 hours to act. The other philosophy is draw based credit lines. No fixed term. No monthly minimums. Interest only on what you actually withdraw, not your full limit. You lose the long term rate lock, but you gain flexibility when markets get choppy. I've heard about Clapp Finance in this context. They do the draw based model with multi asset collateral. Not better, just different. Term loans vs credit lines serve different needs. The real question for anyone looking at Aven: are you comfortable with the 80% warning and 85% kill switch? Because that's where the risk actually lives, not in the 7.99% headline. Has anyone here mapped Aven's liquidation terms against a BTC crash scenario like 2022? Would love to see how the math plays out.

MadSL1m

It’s worth noting that “spending BTC directly at any merchant” isn’t quite right because most POS will turn BTC into a stablecoin or fiat money at checkout via the Visa/Mastercard networks. Direct settlement using BTC is possible with Lightning accepting merchants but not regular retailers. If your use case is something close to what you outlined, then the cards that are self-custodial (Ledger Card/Kontigo) come closer as they spend directly from your own crypto wallet, while custodial cards like Fold are more user-friendly, offer BTC rebates/cashbacks, but require you to top up the card balance first. One more point for people living in the United States: every BTC spend counts as a capital gain tax event. Even if you purchased BTC in 2021 and spend them today in small amounts (e.g., for a $20 cup of coffee), it will create another tax reporting entry. Some cards provide BTC cashback as compensation, but it doesn’t cancel the tax event. FX rates still apply and vary between 0%-3% per transaction.

MediumLibrarian7100

Institutions changed crypto liquidity from retail rotation to product gated allocation. Between 2022-today, they: \- wrapped crypto in tradfi products \- concentrated liquidity into BTC first, ETH second \- professionalised custody, execution and risk \- turned stables into settlement rails \- made “compliance liquidity” matter OLD cycle was: **BTC pumps -> retail feels rich -> profits rotate into ETH -> large caps -> mid caps -> microcaps** NEW cycle is: **ETF inflows -> BTC/ETH absorb capital -> institutions rebalance through regulated products -> little spillover to illiquid alts** That’s why in 2024 after halving BTC could rise without automatically feeding the whole market. Add three more pressures: too many new tokens diluting attention, venture unlocks creating constant sell pressure, and retail weaker than in 2020/21 because rates were higher and stimulus was gone I’m yet to see an advantage to them arriving

LexxM3

I was asked to do a Bitcoin intro presentation to associates of a VC firm in 2013. There were 10 of them and so to solidify the concept and get them a little excited about it, I created 10x 0.1 BTC paper wallets and gave them away to each associate at the presentation. 1 BTC was around $100 back then. To ensure I wasn’t going to be tempted to claw back the gifts at some point, I intentionally did not keep a copy of the private keys, but did keep a copy of the public addresses. I remember telling them that maybe I gifted them a lunch, a vacation, or maybe even a car (all of these were cheaper then). To date, only 1 of the 10 wallets have been moved and that one was the week of the presentation in 2013 — the rest probably used them for toilet paper (no, they weren’t savvy hodlers intentionally hoarding them to now).

Objective-Street-957

Polymarket killed Alt coins, big tech ate BTC/ETH money. It's gojo over.

baIIern

BTC is dumping while my ETFs are up $2k in a single week or so lol

CrowRunnerORP

Buddy had several racks in a coloration (data center where you rent space) in Texas. I'm in CA. We met through our respective jobs. He was paying sonething like 3 cents per kilowatt hour. The CA price for electricity made it a nonstarter. So I sent him a couple BTC miners and a few alt coin miners. I dont recall how much there was in the alt coins but I had 2.4 BTC in his private pool. Then he met this young woman who he hired. He came to town because he had a his disaster recovery / redundant data center/servers/data here. This lady clearly knew nothing about the industry and seemed like someone who had drug issues. I asked what the fuck she was there for. He said she was a fast learner and was helping a lot. He was clearly cheating on his wife. It happened fairly quickly. He left his wife and kids to go be a drug addict with this lady and abandoned his business. Seemed like he kind of fled to Canada. I saw him slip into it over maybe 10 months. He didnt seem like the type. Didnt drink. Nerdy guy who built an IT business. By the time I knew my BTC was in jeopardy he dissapeared. Last time I had any contact he haphazardly tried to extort some money from me. Was almost funny except I was out that 2.4 BTC plus alt coins he spent on drugs. Sad part about that was he probably got like 2k per coin. He had a really good business in tech that totally fell apart once he got into drugs. So yeah, lost 2.4 BTC to a disappeared. When BTC hit 120k I text him "how about that BTC price" lol, no response.

AbraxasTuring

We had face to face meetups. A few bad things happened in 1:1s at McDonalds so John Light for example, held a meetup called Buttonwood in SF to trade cash for BTC. He made the cover of Wired for it. I just watched from the sidelines. There was also LocalBitcoins. MtGox was later.

John_Pig

I do not see how more scarcity (burning BTC or sombody loosing access) can have an effect on price. I think the fixed value as the only factor in this matter, can anyone give a hint on why people think more scarcity means something?

Interesting_Loss_907

You’re certainly entitled to *believe* the four year cycles that have been very regular so far did not actually exist. But until now they have existed. That does not mean that it will continue that way in the future, but up until now, the four year cycle has been very real whether you believe it or not. We are less than one year after the all-time high in the 2025 bull market year. That means we are still at the beginning of the bear market *if* history is any guide. I’m not sure why you would have expected BTC to suddenly deviate from the 4 yr cycle now, but obviously it has not. (Not yet, anyway).

luckor

Send me BTC! I’ll give you back with 2% interest. See, it’s safe because it’s realistic.

hodler1992

Retail is virtually not existent for the moment so the few people believing in BTC and actually accumulating right now have no impact I believe. I hope the pattern will repeat but it need hype and people seeing BTC and all crypto markets down while everything else is breaking new ATHs won't do us a favor. On the other hand there is the issue with quantum computers and I know it will take a while and so on but it could make people hesitate to go into crypto. If 2025 was the top of the circle than it was a very weak one without any euphoria. So who knows how the next bullrun will look like.

DiamondHandsDarrell

In 2009 you mined it or got it through a bitcoin faucet. That would be interesting for a story because you could only get 1 BTC per day, so they would have to stay for x amount of days to get x amount of btc.

xxALLARKxx

1. No one did, you could mine Bitcoin on a PC by just running the software. 50 BTC every 10 minutes to whoever won the block. It was like winning fun tokens for letting your PC run. 2 & 3. Search the sub 4. So you know nothing about Bitcoin, its obvious, are you some kind of karma farming bot ?

IceSea192

You are 100% correct if the goal is to eventually cash out back into fiat through a centralized exchange. They have already captured the main KYC on and off ramps. But needing an "off ramp" assumes you want to return to their programmable system. The ultimate defense isn't cashing out; it's the circular economy—earning it directly, trading peer-to-peer, and exchanging it directly for physical infrastructure, land, and services. If you treat BTC just like a tech stock to get more fiat, they will absolutely regulate and tax you into submission. The goal isn't to cash out into a CBDC; the goal is to build a system where you never need to.

BlazingPalm

I don’t think much will happen with BTC until US interest rates are confirmed and this god awful war with Iran is truly done, and oh yeah, the clarity act and even more importantly, the ARMA blooms. It could be the one thing the republicans do better than Dems: pave the road for finance.

hashsadhsahdihds

I've been using my GPU to solve puzzle 71 of the 1000 BTC challenge for the past few days using Btcpuzzle.info solo pool.  This seems like a pretty solid setup for a shared pool targeting puzzle 135. What made you choose puzzle 135 instead of puzzle 71? And why a shared pool? 

AeonPeter

Ask yourself first if Solana really need to exist. Once you answer it, just go and buy bitcoin. The other thing is, if you want to have asymmetric bet, if so, check the SPX690” community because this might ( I say might) be a new bitcoin. Depends if you want to play it relatively safe (BTC) or risk more. How long are you in crypto? Price predictions are not the best way to go. Wish you good luck! https://preview.redd.it/d3igf5wxpl4h1.jpeg?width=2556&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aa1f9b0163fb49689e1be5dc076c8abe4b65c89d

devCheckingIn

Don't worry we'll dump at market open when the ETFs can unload another 1-2 thousand BTC.

Interesting_Loss_907

BTC was around $8K 6 years ago at the 2020 halving. Today it’s $74K. You call that “stagnant”? 😂 What do you call Bonds & other more conservative, traditional investments?

Saffuran

Stay out until closer to Q4 most likely -- also don't look at things outside of the top 20 or so tokens (market cap) and I tend to avoid memes in that filter as well. By the time BTC bottoms the ETH/BTC dilation iis probably going to be toward its relative lows which will be interesting for entry. Solana should also see a strong bounce (between now and Q4, SOL will probably be trading in the $30s at some point and that will be the safest entry since its fair value gap will be filled. I admit there is second-hand meme exposure there so there is a double-edged sword but I genuinely like how the system operates. AVAX/LINK will be interesting layer 2 projects to look for entries in and Real-World-Asset markets and aggregators like ONDO may be some of the biggest overall opportunities. Privacy coins/layers like ZCash and ZKsync are already showing decent strength (especially ZEC) in this downtrend and if ZEC can maintain that relative strength with Bitcoin transitioning back into a Bull Market environment, it could have the biggest boom potential of all.

Mountain-Tap-8788

Why Bitcoin, why not ETH and why not Shiba or Doge? Maybe Claude tokens would be actually useful to access AI compute power. Why choose something where a huge percent is already owned by some random MSTR or Satoshi if he decides to wake up. What have they contributed to the world economy to hold so much of it? What backs BTC? What if governments refuse to exchange their currency for BTC?

Machine7272

Exactly! That’s the only way I’ve made money on BTC. I learned from 2017 cycle. This last cycle bought in at 30K and sold at 100K. Just have to go into the cycle with a plan and execute. I’ll scoop it up at the 4th quarter of the year in October and sell again in 2019 fourth quarter

soundlogicio

I sold because the deflationary power of AI scared me off of a device whose bull thesis is largely rooted in the inevitability of inflation. I held around 4btc from 40k to 80k. To me BTC was always an extremely long horizon bet so I only thought of it in terms of commensurately long time horizons. That long horizon mindset helped me weather a lot of volatility but when I began to understand the implications of AI and closed my eyes to try and visualize the future it led to, I stopped seeing bitcoin in the picture. Anyway that's just me anecdote and it doesn't answer the question you asked. I hope it contributes to answering the question you should have asked.

Patriot_tech

Smart money taking profits isn’t automatically bearish — it’s just risk management. The real question is whether your position size matches your risk tolerance if BTC keeps grinding. Before you ape in or out on any move, run the numbers here so you never blow up on one trade: https://denntech.io/tools/risk-calculator

stheodore1974

I sold all my ETH for BTC about 3 years ago and have zero regrets. I started my crypto journey with ETH in 2020 but in hindsight I should have always made BTC the foundation. I corrected that about 3 years back and if I could turn back the clock I would have done FAR better with BTC. There is no second best

TheJumpingTurkey

Exactly BTC having a certain amount made doesn't mean anything if it runs out of demand the only value it honestly has it people refusing to let it sink

Machine7272

My best success with Bitcoin is by following the 4 year cycle. I didn’t time the lows and highs perfectly but this last cycle I bought in at 30K and sold at 100K. Waiting for the fourth quarter of this year to buy in, projecting at 60-70K, maybe lower? I don’t profess to know it all but that’s a good gauge to follow. No matter what, most bottoms happen around October-November of the midterm elections. My goal is to sell at 175K of the following cycle to play it safe. I’ve been doing this with money I’ve earned from BTC since I starter investing in crypto back in 2017. I don’t recommend doing this with a major chunk of your portfolio, BTC will test your anxiety if you don’t have a plan and just hold like many experts suggest

Express-Economist-86

Get on Kalshi, get on trading view. In Kalshi, use the BTC weekly category and “one hour xxxprice or above” Make sure you’re on the right one for the next hour- not the one for Friday, not the one for price range. Place a “no” bet lower than the initial spot. Place “no” bets anywhere in above there and continue to do so until they sic a market maker on you, (you can tell when you start to lose - yes it’s in their terms and conditions. You are an emergency.) the price (fairly responsively) rises. Its the damndest thing. Do not. I repeat. DO NOT. Make big bets. Ten cents is enough to move the needle if the algo is picking you up. Repeated ten cent bets. Trading view has some pretty good target points and future prediction functions to watch your bet and plan your next move. If enough people bet “no” on A price consistently, their algo will attempt to beat you (thinking you know something) by offsetting your no-bet on price with a price increase. Dead ass. Just bet no every time you see a candle. There seems to be a range, like if you bet a no BELOW current price, -or- FAR out of the range into the 96%+ price, it raises higher. Conceptually, a group of motivated traders could bankrup Kalshi and raise the price, repricing their sats along the way and allowing cool-off periods. I would NEVER suggest someone organize their bitcoin buddies to reprice their stack and collectively make small ten cent bets to jack the price. That would be terrible. I would hate those dirty cheaters. So much. No one actually try this. Or organize a telegram group to game this deeply flawed system that isn’t terribly regulated yet. These markets are for accurate price predictions. Another thing to be aware of is if there’s no potential of profit popping up, you’re too far out of the range. Closer no bets to the line and DEFINITELY below push that needle waaaaay further. But you might lose money on the no bet if it’s way below the line, so be aware. Conversely, a yes bet tends to bring the price down to escape your bet. It pulls a little harder than than what you bet against you. If your bet is too tight, it goes where your most likely to lose. If you bet all no, it would probably raise the price far enough to escape all your bets and also take your money, so it doesn’t hurt to throw a “yes” in there somewhere like 1-3 lines above, and recoup. Don’t be afraid to cash it out and take profits to continue. You’ll probably lose some money and the next hour they may take the price further down. Moving about a quarter of your stack at a time per target (into USDT, and back for instance) as you do this can allow repricing of your crypto stack. Sell a quarter on the red bar on trading view ( just use the free month membership and set your calendar to disable your account ya damn cheapskate) if/when it hits the green, buy back quarter of what you cashed out on red , balance where you think it will go, end the day in BTC, hope other people make bets that won’t cause this to rip. Because that may look like market manipulation. We like fairness in Bitcoin. Prediction markets definitely seem fair. Man I would hate it everyone got to do this. Especially if they paused when they noticed they were losing because that means they’re on to you and have a market maker targeting you. Gaaah and if you noted that time and then came on at a different day or time, they might not have the same one, then you may be able to skirt their system! But man oh man if a LOT of people were willing to drop a buck on this every now and then to jack the price… man I’d hate that. Nobody do this ok? And boy howdy do I hate that trading view can show candles just a little ahead of the time Kalshi shows the price so you could even kind of get a group consensus just by watching the volume chart! Man, trading view (it’s just what I use, aight - I don’t work for them or anyone unless it’s fun, I’m my own asshole boss) or some other kind of quick BTC view could probably be a huge advantage to someone trying to game this system! It’s not like they’re trying to screw you, Kalshi wants to pay you. They wouldn’t buy a bunch of bitcoin and then sell it back to keep us constantly walking down to reprice THEIR sats. They are a fair, impartial company that just wants your success. I bet most of these prediction markets function in the same way. Edit 5,000: wow those are some nice green candles. One small yes bet to adjust a line or two above no-pushers can be a wall of safety. Just remember, the goal is you lose. If they make more taking you down a hair, they will balancing far-out and in no bets with a low cost yes bet can keep it moving. Some bets (if someone checked settings) will auto-pull at a profit threshold, seems around 86% is the start of that range. If one has done bets by around the first 15-30m, one can break for a sec, take a poop, then check how things have rebalanced, check upper and lower thresholds, cash out what they need, keep going. I MAKE. SMALL. BETS. I TAKE A GOLDAMN BREAK IF IM REALLY LOSING. I LIKE TO PULL MY IMMEDATE NO BET IF THEYRE ABOUT TO BE SQUASHED, CONVERT TO SMALL YES, never exceeding the weight on my No expenses, because then they may just drop the price and know out all my yes bets. EDIT 5043 Jesus someone gets paid, good on that guy, probably a dirty cheater though. Maybe I was too detailed on how people can actually game the market that Kalshi has set up and turn their product against them for their own benefit. Man… please nobody actually go do this.

Available_Win5204

Stop trying to make "BTC" happen. It's not going to happen.

Bluejumprabbit

I would plan to trim down. SOL can run hard but it also gives back 25 to 30 percent stupid fast once beta gets crowded so I would decide now where to derisk. If BTC stays firm I get aiming higher, but a sell plan matters more than the exact moon number.

Forded_Fiction24

What are your rates? Aren't these variable, yet high as well like to the tune of 7-10% or more? Are BTC loans just for people who's only asset is BTC and live on a BTC standard?

neverhodlHQ

Hey everyone. We built NeverHodl — a composite BTC cycle indicator that combines 37   on-chain, macro, and sentiment signals into a single 0-100 score. Free, no signup.            Quick data dump for anyone tracking the cycle right now: \- BTC NHCI Score: \~32 (what we call the "bottom zone")   \- MVRV: 1.42                                                                                  \- NUPL: 0.29                                                                                  \- Fear & Greed: 22                                                                            \- Global M2 (Big 5 central banks): expanding                                                  For context, the score was in this same range during Dec 2018 ($3,200), March 2020 COVID   ($4,000), and Nov 2022 FTX ($15,600).                                                         Not financial advice — we literally never say buy or sell. We just show where the data says    we are in the cycle and let people decide for themselves.   If anyone wants to verify the data: we have a public API, no auth needed. Just google         "NeverHodl" — the dashboard and API are free.   Happy to answer questions about the methodology or any of the 37 indicators.

Fijiambed

The market cap of BTC is $1.4 Trillion while the market cap of META is $1.6 Trillion, the shorts are able to manipulate META like a yo yo. So buying bitcoin leveraged, Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) etc. plus not tucking your BTC into a private wallet and leaving it on the exchanges, allows the hedge funds to manipulate the market. Then once the retail looses hope in BTC then the shorts buy to cover, rinse and repeat.

lambdasintheoutfield

This question can get as deep as you want it to be. There is macroeconomic uncertainty. The average person doesn’t have the extra funds to invest and when they do they don’t have the risk appetite for bitcoin. Then, there was a shock to the underlying decentralized philosophy of Bitcoin. Microstrategy, BlackRock and other huge hedge funds have scooped up a significant amount of BTC. If you factor in their collective share, unrecoverable bitcoins due to holders passing away, losing their keys the amount of Bitcoin holdings IS concentrated in a small handful of players. That adds more uncertainty in the long term future. Historical trends like 4 year cycles (due to the halving) work until they don’t. What has remained true is BTC has indeed remained a hedge against inflation. Inflation is a constant upward force on the price, as well as BTC itself becoming more scarce as people mine more blocks. The other downward forces are strong, but likely won’t always be since many are temporary. Personally I DCA and treat is a determining factor of which FIRE bracket ill ultimately fall into. Classic investment rules still apply.

hopelesslyhip

Flows of money chasing AI assets & all the scams /risk/ complications of crypto and poof... No more crypto gains. Although BTC and crypto are two very different things most who haven't spent the time to think about it all lump them together.

nomoredamnusernames

Yep. Overlaying a chart of M2 and a BTC chart with a 90 day delay gives you almost perfect symmetry.

RBUL13

BTC is unalive ☠️

Z08Z28

Money never leaves the market, it just rotates into different sectors. BTC had its monster run recently built on the Trump admin(BTC friendly) coming into office and the Biden admin(anti-BTC) leaving. Trump made many promising statements and actions but they haven't advanced as quickly or as well as the market expected so money rotated back out. Big institution is still buying. Many people expect BTC to bounce off the trendline at 71-73K(depends on the date) if it doesn't hold the 100 day MA. It broke through to the downside on the 50 day that it had been above for a month. Without a promising outlook on the Iran "war" BTC will probably hit the upward trendline started in February and hopefully stay in the channel and bounce upwards.

adamADHT

Check out Nexo - I can’t remember the exact terms but I believe they are currently doing 0% apr on loans using BTC as collateral

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pond_slider

Bitcoin is something that’s called a speculative asset, meaning its worth is tied to what others feel that it is valued at a given time. It’s kind of like a Pokemon card. A single card could be worth $1,000, $50, or $0 depending on who the audience is, and those prices can fluctuate at any given time. So right now, people are willing to pay about $75K for BTC, but a year from now, it may be worth $100K to people or it may be worth $50K. Unfortunately, there’s really no way to tell, which is why many people will say that placing your money into cryptocurrency is more similar to gambling than investing.

Bero_Survivor

Honestly, this is how it should be done. ETFs are convenience wrapped in counterparty risk. Holding spot BTC in cold storage is the actual point. Hope more states and countries follow Texas on this one. Not your keys, not your coins — even for governments.

Bero_Survivor

A few mechanisms that are actually suppressing it right now: Liquidity drain. The US Treasury is pulling roughly $150B from the financial system in the coming weeks. Bitcoin acts as a leading liquidity indicator — when liquidity contracts, risk assets fall first and fastest. Fed policy shift. Rate hike talk for the first time in years means the cost of holding non-yielding assets goes up. Institutions rebalance out of BTC first. Geopolitical risk premium. The Iran situation pushed oil up and inflation expectations higher. That's the worst macro backdrop for any risk asset. None of this is a fundamental problem with Bitcoin. It's a liquidity and macro problem that Bitcoin happens to be caught in. The cycle clock still matters more than any of these individually.

justforgigs96

The plumbing on the BTC backed loans are still pretty bad IMHO. You mentioned 11.5% APR - which is far lower than many brokerages offer today. For example if you had Robinhood - they offer margin at 5% (at the low end) and even upwards of 4.8 or 4.5 if you have a bigger portfolio. So if you have a decent-sized portfolio there and you were interested in getting more BTC price action exposure: you could always get something like IBIT or a similar BTC ETF for 5% margin. If you're adamant that you only want to get spot BTC back and you don't have any other collateral beyond your own BTC, then I suppose that's the only place where it makes sense to consider. Ledn/Strike seem to be decent options for that. And while we've been at a bear market and have gone through a huge crash, that would be the ideal place to get it rather than waiting for it to run up again.

LordJamPunt

Bro…buddy…if BTC dies they all will die so maybe be a little less myopic and little more supportive.

Pingon25

Dude because it is cycle. And BTC is right on time 🤑

Sharp-Perception5658

Well, when i said "stocks" I was thinking more in line with the Indices themselves. However, yes, in the way you put it, I agree with you. There are definitely the occasional large cap movers....but I think the majority of large caps are lucky if they make 10% per year. We're just in very interesting times right now because we're at the forefront of the "autonomous/robot age". I'm sure, industrial stocks probably overperformed while the industrial revolution was in full swing too. Also, we remember how dot com stocks performed during the "internet age". I think I simply miss the days when bitcoin was gaining 2,000% during a typical bull cycle. I started investing in Bitcoin in 2015, so perhaps I'm still stuck in the past. You said that you started investing in BTC in mid-2017. Are you still holding? Are you bored by the current cycles as it compares to previous cycles?

Chancho300

Quantum is coming for BTC. BTC isn’t shiny anymore. AI is the new shiny thing

SlickRicc

He’s right about the President’s harmful rhetoric towards crypto but Bitcoin isn’t a “bubble”, people say this everytime it hits a low. If you’re looking for actual reasons aside from the cycle just look at the general state of the economy, not the stock market/crypto. The CPI continues to increase, rate troubles with the federal reserve, crude oil situation slowly getting worse, a lot of people will want to stay in fiat in light of all that. It’s honestly so much to explain, it’s not as simple as “why isn’t bitcoin going up?”. It was intended to be a global borderless currency so naturally it’s going to be affected by global events. BTC has a really long way to go but it’s not “over”.

Reasonable_Band1536

Could you get a loan from your bank? I received a $24,000 cash advance for 21 months at 0% APR. go in and tell them you are looking to invest. See how much in which you qualify. DCA into BTC.

Reasonable_Band1536

Could you get a loan from your bank? I received a $24,000 cash advance for 21 months at 0% APR. go in and tell them you are looking to invest. See how much in which you qualify. DCA into BTC.

Syonoq

Even if things cost less in BTC, it doesn’t mean they’re cheaper.