BTC

WorriedBed4817

Realistic long-term BTC price?

Rickard403

Why didn't BTC break the 4yr cycle pattern this time around? Seemed like this should've been the time it happened, based on institutional investing, ETF's, etc. If it still happened this time, what's stopping it from happening next time? Much of the same market behavior is still in play. BTC is still volatile, a little less so than in the beginning sure, but it's still volatile.

AInception

The cycle already broke 'last cycle'. BTC issuance is practically finished at this point, no more supply shocks to come. I feel like next cycle will be even more crabbish because so many want to exit now. I don't think we'll spend much time in price discovery again unless something substantial changes, like the collapse of the dollar. I'll still bet on another cycle, still hodling, but my conviction has never been weaker. Been in this since 2010 for what it's worth.

Romanizer

Would really want to see the calculations if you end up with more money that way and if you are able to get the price down back to current levels after buying hundred of thousands of BTC on the open markets. Liquidation is not possible, but price needs to be under $10k for well over a year to force Strategy to sell most of their Bitcoin.

Doritos707

You know it did pump up and people did make profits right? Also a tons of air drops (such as the Rock NFT that was released for BTC holders) and all the different Solana coins that made many people millionaires.

Patient-Process-2565

Nobody knows, this could be the bottom or it might collapse to 10k. It’s a gamble that only you can decide. Remember that only LONG term holders win or those that trade the lows and highs. Best of luck. If you can’t stomach volatility I suggest you avoid BTC and go for a more stable ETF STICK

Doritos707

Minimize the risk of alt coins being exploited from letting that exploit or risk your BTC.

Androoboodro

Na I think many are just hoping the cycle plays out now but did not position themselves accordingly. The cycle was getting no public love before this most recent crash. BTC will go lower and people will start to say why not and buy back in.

CyberCrud

Don't listen to the naysayers here about there not being crystal balls and the cycle being fake.  They're wrong.  I'm gonna give you a master class lesson in the cycle and ease your worries: 1.  The bottom comes 12-18 months before the halving.  That puts us into tne October 2026-March 2027 span for the bottom.  This is accumulation time.  When folks say BTC is dead, that's when you buy like crazy.  We're starting to hear those grumblings now.  Sub $50k is a good place to chuck money at it.  Sub $40k and start considering selling your kidneys.   2.  About 6-12 months before the halving, BTC will stay mostly flat.  You'll have some gains and you'll retest the bottom again.  If you get a late double dip in 2027, jump on it. 3.  6 months to the Halving the excitement picks up again.  People start talking about it and they start buying.  This is when Winter basically ends.  You'll have a bull market up to the halving and a little afterwards.   4.  A few months after the halving in Spring 2028, the bull will slow and people will wonder why it's stalled out.  They'll question if ATH will happen.  You'll see flat prices.  Stay vigilant through this process.   Most folks get excited about the Halving and expect ATH to follow shortly after.  It doesn't.    5.  12-18 months after the Halving is the FOMO bull run to the ATH.  This is when the big buzz starts happening.  The trajectory goes up fairly quickly at this point.  You might get a brief ATH at $127k and a pullback but then another ultimate ATH late Summer, early Fall of 2029.  Conservatively, you can expect $150k.  Psychologically, it will want to hit $200k.  But just keep in mind that at particular psychological price points, sell points are baked in.  This is why when BTC hit $100k in late 2024, it pulled back and stayed flat.  The same will happen at $150k or $200k.  So if you set a sell price, make sure it is under those marks so you don't miss them.   Believe in the cycle.  But make sure you take profits in 2029 (or even December 2028 for tax reasons) or you'll be right back here again.   

belavv

> BTC is still in its infancy How many more years is it still going to be in its infancy?

zesushv

Nah.. The 32btc sell was the second time they have sold btc. The first time was in 2022, when they sold 704 BTC for tax-loss harvesting before repurchasing more than they sold two days later.

Comfortable-Ant-418

I mean regardless of the case, is there any reason why the USA would want to seize BTC from you...? If not then this really isn't a relevant concern lol.

darkrood

Not likely, and I am speaking as someone who dislikes BTC, it’s likely around 55k to 60k for bottom. If Oct 2026 is not a new low or similar low In June, then we’ve entered new meta. RemindMe! 5 Oct, 2026

Azatis-

That would mean billions of profits sitting somewhere waiting for the next opportunity and some of it, a small portion of it will definitly go to the " BTC halving " narrative to catch up the next bull market early. In fact it is always whales who start the bull markets like that, billions getting in out of the blue in a matter of hours to days when things have bottom and all hope is lost.

Comfortable-Ant-418

I mean you're still being a gambler trying to time the market, that's the benefit of buying now when it's half off ATH (and if you believe in the cycles that much then you also know it will go past the ATH anyways, making 60k a very appealing entry point). It can get better in the future but that isn't guaranteed! The price we have in front of us today is guaranteed however, and it's one hell of a good price if you believe in BTC. In either case just split up your money and slowly DCA into it, you'll catch the bottom if it dips further, and if for some reason it doesn't dip further, at least you got a few purchases at the current price!

Designer-Brief-1188

BTC during that same time frame*

FnAardvark

He sold 32 BTC

xxALLARKxx

You will never f\*\*k up buying BTC if you plan to hold it long term. If you plan for YOLO gains then you done F'ed up BWOY 😂 

NoTransportation1866

At this point, Michael is the only stimulus for BTC.

Realistic_Support185

After BTC hit 60,000 I increased my DCA by 25%

SeriousGains

Jack Dorsey says BTC will be at least a million by 2030. Pretty good rate of return of your buy now.

Catbatt

Dumped all my alts in 2021 and am now 100% in BTC. So quiet, so peaceful.

Top-Inspection-5009

Nope. I exited my BTC yesterday. I will watch from the sidelines and maybe jump back in sometime or maybe never.

baaaaarto

Yes i talk about shitcoins, which include BTC.

BookOfKingsOfKings

Yeah this is my thinking as well. I am looking into diversifying into stocks or etfs too. But i’ll keep and hold my BTC position, and dca to it for the time being.

OdonsOwn1966

I'd like to know this as well. I have just started in BTC, and moved it into a cold wallet where I have a few thousand of xrp, xlm and a bit of ETH. Currently only DCA'ing BTC and ETH and figure to move them into cold wallet each month.

raging_shaolin_monk

So what you're saying is that comedy gold provides more real-world value than holding BTC.

Jayar9000

That would mean we'll see a BTC rebound mid June until start of September when Anthropic and OpenAI launch their IPO

Fit_Equal6932

[](https://x.com/saylor) Bitcoin has won. Global consensus is that [$BTC](https://x.com/search?q=%24BTC&src=cashtag_click) is digital capital. **The four-year cycle is dead.** Price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. The biggest risk is bad ideas driving iatrogenic protocol changes. He has this pinned I mean.

CoatForeign2948

It will crash too… remember BTC acts like a tech stock

Actual_Pattern_265

If you invested in BTC in June 2021, you'd be up 100% as of June 2026, and have beaten the S&P by about 10%. And yes, if you invested in stocks that went up more than BTC in a certain timeframe, you'd have made more on that investment in that time frame. Strangely, the inverse also applies. Honest question - have you had your IQ tested?

amicablegradient

On the 6th of June 2021 BTC was at 35,000.

Johs92

But that is essentially a dollar driven narrative rather than a BTC one, no? I mean, great if you're not really believing in BTC long term

Azatis-

Noone knows but i think by next halving Iran war will be settle, AI boom will too, already many people with humongous profits sitting somewhere ready to ride on next BTC halving narrative.

dan_335i

Last year I YOLO 0.25BTC at all time high. I think it was 120k btc. And then once I saw it dropped to 93k I Bought 0.75BTC so my average was around 100k for 1 BTC. Then I slowly DCA everyday $20 to this day. I just started BTC August 2025. Will HODL

QuirkyGlove3326

The AI bubble will not burst, but I anticipate it will deflate as business users start to reckon with the true token costs as time goes on. My company is projecting a 4x increasing in AI costs because GitHub Copilot is switching their pricing model. If the markets dip, BTC will dip too.

Azatis-

The smart guys with so called smart money will make billions thru AI ( already have ) and IPOs and when the time is right, around BTC halving, many of those guys will put some of their profits into BTC again to ride again on BTC hype train that will begin just before halving. This is what will happen.

Pingon25

LMAO! Sounds to me like this dude is sour that he FOMO bought BTC @ $110k and is now neg $40k. Sir, BTC is doing EXACTLY what it’s supposed to be doing. She’s RIGHT ON TIME ⏰. I still see BTC could realistically hit \~$40k Sept/Oct 2026

Zealousideal-Ad7773

If SP500 crashes we are going back to 30k BTC. How this could be bullish for crypto?

Azatis-

Those are the one who will return for the next BTC halving narrative

Actual_Pattern_265

This sub is either bots or just the dumbest people on planet earth. BTC traded between 30K and 70K in 2021. Depending on when you bought in that year, you could be negative or up 100%. Who upvotes this nonsense? Every day this sub is complete nonsense, top to bottom.

BHG_702

And in 2029/2030 the new lows during bear will be 120k BTC, 4k ETH

Sweaty-Dust6405

Nice way to cherry pick data, I mean you can always DCA down and then sell the moment BTC is back at bullish run unless you just plan to hold. All this data shows is you bought it in 2021 and then never did anything afterwards.

2LostFlamingos

It’s generally the way to lose all of your BTC.

Letsmovethemarket

I personally love the smell of fear. It signals it is time to buy more BTC.

Intelligent-Log191

If BTC 75k is the line, decide that before the next yield spike, not after the candle is already nuking. The worst place to build a thesis is inside a liquidation wick. Holding or trimming can both be fine, but the invalidation has to be written first. TradingWizard is useful for that boring part: chart in, entry/stop/target/confidence out.

r3v3rb_1

Fundamental knowledge of the BTC network pretty much nullifies your argument. And if you think you own your home, try not paying your taxes for a while. I can tell you find lead to be a precious metal as well. That’s fine, but it’s an archaic position and there is abundance of lead.

papablessed420

"or like the dip to 30k in 2026" - someone in 5 years from now when BTC's are 6 figures

joos_hubert

I would not do this if the goal is just to squeeze more upside out of a dip. Borrowing against BTC to buy more BTC turns a long-term position into a liquidation problem. The danger is not only the interest rate. It is the moment BTC drops hard and you have to choose between adding more collateral, repaying quickly, or watching the loan unwind at the worst time. That can happen even if your long-term thesis is right. If it were me, I would only use BTC-backed borrowing for something boring and planned, with a very low LTV and cash to repay. Using it to lever into more BTC is a different trade. If you already dislike leverage, that instinct is probably worth listening to.

facaila888

Most newcomers will panic when they see this. They’ll think that since BTC dropped so much in just a few days, it might never go up again. But they don’t realize that BTC can also rise far more than that in just a few days. If you’re afraid of losing, don’t invest

Real-Technician831

Dude, there hasn’t been a good timeframe for BTC to be store of value since 2020. I serous wouldn’t call direct timeline from present day cherry picking.

InvestmentSorry6393

I think there's a good chance that we get knocked down to 40-50k I think with AI, and these new IPOs there is just not a ton of liquidity, or interest in Bitcoin/ crypto. I'm suspect that some of that will eventually flow into crypto once investors realize how wildly over inflated these new IPOs are. I don't have a ton of cash flow, and I'm not taking out debt for investing. So I'm taking this time to continue my DCA into BTC and mstr, trying to earn a bit more/ grind a little harder to speedup my DCA while it drops to lower lows

aliveandwellthanks

I was a long time crypt enthusiast and sold everything and stuck it in the S&P in March of this year. Already happy with my decision as I have a future to think about, retirement , and I'm starting to realize it's just irresponsible to have anything in crypto. The koolaie is kind of wearing off. Kids and a family will do that. My money say in etherium for 6 years and I have nothing to show for it. Even if BTC goes back up to 125k or even 150,200k. I don't care anymore. Investing in the market at least make sense to me, everyone is betting on the market doing well and everyone is pouring into it at least somewhat consistently. The value of the economy should increase over time and I'll take 5-10% YoY over crypto any damn day at this point.

haronic

>How do relatively secure computer networks survive the collapse of nation states or devastating climate change or nuclear war? Or even failing power grids, and widespread energy scarcity? Would stocks, bonds, housing, still hold value after such an event? Such a dumb take to think dollars would hold value, if the whole country endsup in a doomsday event. On the contrary, based on ur example: if ur country is in ruins, and electric grid is down (but still active in other countries world wide) BTC is safer alternative then land/fiat currency of ur failing home country. It's decentralised for a reason.

Jayar9000

Even when the main reason for the current drop is institutional buyers rotating out of BTC ETF? Those are the ones that will gain the most on these biggliest IPO's

Wadafak19

I kinda firmly believe that BTC wouldn’t look this bad, if Trump wasn’t the Potus.

CommunicationMean901

I deposited all my savings in a bank, and waiting for BTC<40K, then want to buy it with leverage 2x. There are still belivers that btc will go up from 60k, but it is good sign of further down. No need to hurry up to buy bitcoins. There will be a day that btc will be completely trash, and whole market will slow down. And there will be a month to buy BTC. 60K for btc is so expensive, 30k-40k is real buy value. Market is now unstable, and need to wait to October. I am not super rich or class A person, but I know that real whales never runs to buy BTC. Just wait a right wave to get home like "Cast Away" 2000 movie. BTW, never buy trash coin, buy only BTC. There might be fake huge dump in the future because of Quantum computer, but remember that quantum computer projects are like balck hole, funding-funding, racing, and bla-bla news, what they are making is stone age 1 tone kitchen dishes. It is not real threat, just theory and bubble news. What do you think guys?

r3v3rb_1

BTC is digital gold and IMO you should own some of both. All other crypto projects are nothing more than small teams trying to monetize their centralized network. Gold is an established store of value and should be respected as such. BTC is still in its infancy so volatility is to be accepted. Sure, initial intent is to be a medium of exchange but its behavior has mimicked gold more so than currency. And sometimes we just need to remember that a lot of these posts come from over invested, under diversified, highly emotional and impatient positions because in reality, this 5 years window from the OP is quite meaningless.

paxwax2018

No, we will always need money, and we have money. What we don’t need is something pretending to be money that isn’t money. You can see this in the fact that BTC value is measured in money.

anonymkos1

Damn bro. If you are such a big Fan of the power-law-model you should know BTC did cross the lower barrier of the model more than one time. I’m not saying it wasnt extremely accurate in the previous years.

Tech88Tron

What if I invested in BTC in 2015? Would an index fund still win? Asking for a friend

LiveMotivation

And if keep going lower until 2022. SOL was like 9 bucks and BTC hit 15ish.

Used-Work-2807

Just set it to buy by fiat amount instead of by BTC amount. When you go to buy, there should be an option to enter £70 directly rather than trying to calculate how much BTC that gets you. Coinbase handles the conversion automatically so you don't have to do the math yourself.

Real-Technician831

I sold when BTC hit 60K the first time.

OldHamburger7923

The entire purpose of hw wallet is to secure the seed. The fact that they have code that exports it defeats the purpose. Because it's closed source, you can't know if their software randomly exports your seed to them. Or someone in the company injects code that does this without them knowing. Or just because the export logic exists, someone could find a way to exploit it to extract the seed. These are attack vsctors that shouldn't exist for any wallet that secured the seed and has no way to export it. I have had ledger, trezor, and jade. Build quality of the jade plus is garbage because the right button sticks and I have to depress it at an angle to push down. Trezor that I had did a firmware update and quit working. One ledger nano had no backlight anymore. The other one works but isn't supported. If I were buying again I'd look at a BTC only hw wallet. Ideally one with a keyboard so passphrases aren't a pita.

Real-Technician831

That’s pretty weak argument, people have been claiming that BTC is inflation hedge, store of value, and other bullshit that proved to be wrong. Are you really trying to push BTC as a pump and dump?

Azatis-

I think the moment the Iran war settles, there will be a nice bump for starters. And of course, big institutions will want to front-run another BTC halving next year. Add to that the fact that, by then, the AI stock frenzy will most likely have settled, along with most IPO hype so after all that I think lot of institutional money will be looking for another ride on the BTC halving narrative. Is now the right time to buy .. what your GUT tells you along with DATA/CHARTS and you have your answer.

JunkBondJunkie

I guess I can always rent my extra bed rooms for dollars then turn into BTC .

Fun_Training6342

Even if BTC gains another 62% from here to reach 100K, it will still be in a BEAR MARKET, still being -20% down.

Local_Math_5512

BTC goes up: "We're all going to live forever!!!!" BTC goes down: "Oh. How could I have been stupid enough to believe this ponzi scheme. It's over guys. It'll never happen again. BTC goes up: "Buy as much as you can fella's. We're all going to be flying private jet's to the sports stadium's we just bought" BTC goes down: "Of course it was all a con job. The institution corrupted the system and now the dream is dead forever. Bury it and never buy BTC again." BTC goes up: "These moronic non-believers won't have anything to say while I'm dancing naked on my own moon base snorting Martian blow and dancing with genetically modified strippers" BTC goes down: "Burn the world down. Crypto was just a psy-op tool used by the rich to steal our money" BTC goes up: "If this keeps going, I think I might just buy the country of Denmark. Does anyone know if it's for sale."

BetTheDip

Buy the top on AI so that when that bubble pops he’s down on both his BTC and AI. Great advice lol

poundsdpound

All those who thought it would be a 'safe haven' to use Bitcoin reserves during the 2021 and 2022 time have less money in USD now than if they had kept it out of BTC. They'll have to wait for a while, and in that time if they had waited until now to start buying coins they would be on the recovery section of the chart, not just trying to break even with their original amount if they bought BTC at the ATH

VforVendetas

Ok so buy another 1 BTC so you can bring your average down. Or keep DCAing. These are bargain prices compared to what you paid. Surely this discount is amazing for you. By the way I'm buying as we speak although I'm averaging up my cost basis.

poundsdpound

Imagine buying the entire supply if you could for the cost of $1 then slowly releasing them back into the wild at 1 million BTC per time. Then just waiting and waiting

GooodNiightaringding

BTC is created for every block. That's inflation. The inflation is periodically reduced and will eventually stop, so that there will never be more than 21 million BTC. But miners will still be needed at that point and it's unclear how they will be paid. Relying solely on transaction fees would likely not be enough to sustain sufficiently secure hash requirements.

BHG_702

I think BTC is here to stay and we’re still in its infancy. No one bats an eye throwing money at the S&P500 on the assumption of annual 10% returns minimum. I think about BTC the same way but way bigger swings. Still millions of new users yet to get into it and know about the cycle just like 2017/2021 and now. Not enough people in crypto yet, so for now, take advantage of the predictable swings while the newcomers go through it their first time. Rinse and repeat til everyone experiences it 😂

virt111

Been hoarding, selling and buying BTC since 2015 and it has always been the same.

ReinrassigsterRuede

But I have diversified. I bought 7 different cryptos that directly depend on BTC price..how can that go wrong?

Suspicious-Holiday42

If you are pro diversification you are not enough pro BTC

highlandspring1001

Wow..you best sell your BTC now get into Space X and bank your guaranteed profit and get back into Bitcoin then. Seems like a no brainer

toto91000

Le BTC repartira tot ou tard, n oubliez jamais qu il n y en aura que 21 millions...

needsinform

why we wait too much time. Somebody says when BTC will be break the 50k level next fall be a 20k what fuck up going on market🤒🤒 everything is falling but AI company making huge profit 📈📈

FriendsMade_MeDoIt

If you're buying 1 BTC, I'd make sure it's because you've got your own thesis and not because everyone's suddenly talking about it again. I've seen a lot of people in my circle get excited when the mood flips bullish, then panic when things get choppy a few weeks later. Nobody knows the perfect entry, so I'd be more focused on whether you'd still feel comfortable holding it if it dropped 20-30% after you buy.

Fr33lo4d

Satoshi was by definition the earliest adopter and believer in BTC. He could have many other wallets that we don’t know about (through different types of mining, early ventures, etc). It makes more sense to use that BTC than the first ones. If he touches the first ones, there would be a big shock in the market that could crash the price.

willofscott

So many are missing the big picture, chain railing finance is the technology of the future, their is no other best way to light speed finance and have instant finality which protects the discrepancy of value which changes by the minute, it preserves massive wealth. So being this is true and happens to be happening synonymous with AI, people don’t recognize this tech revolution for what it is, they on;y see AI, and forget about its brother blockchain technology. The onboarding of real estate broken into many chunks and tradable, which makes every real estate property liquid for broader financial usage and growth, insurance records and premiums collections, medical records easily accessible all the time everywhere, supply chains management, banking and financial transactions, credit card systems, stocks, bond market, derivatives market, artwork divided into shares, everything needing a ledger and is to be traded or transacted will be railed, that means 100 trillion plus of on chain activity, this thing is going to be unfathomable, and Eth is the core trusted premier utility rail, BTC the underlayment for the entire ecosystem, anyone worried about the dip is absolutely hopeless, in their understanding of what’s about to happen. Wake up, and smell the ethereum!

DistributionOk2111

Krypto is defo over, not BTC tho, cant compare them

Valuable_Tennis6847

love getting a good laugh from threads like this- OP can’t even count, and people are throwing out ridiculous price targets based on bro science and Cathie Wood. You all seem to forget that the Nasdaq is almost at an all-time high. The last time BTC bottomed, the Nasdaq was about 60% lower than now, and sitting at a three-year low. BTC has plenty of room to go lower if, and when, this A.I bubble pops, and probably not much upside potential in the short term.

helloconflow

Looking at the price rn, it is $62,199.75, the fear/greed is at 14. Do not fall for it. BTC, like most assets, is used to hold wealth against inflation and also to speculate. BTC is particularly attractive to the second usage: it is limited, easy to transfer, and very volatile, which is great for making money if you already have some, a lot if you are rich and have cash to invest. Wealth is always looking for a way to grow. Now, the market is focused on AI and IPOs. After that, they will go again for BTC, pump it, and sell it again. Why? Bc is easy to invest in, creates a lot of fomo, and somehow people feel like the resistance to using crypto. Macroeconomics is a science in books; the reality is just about how the people with the big wallets play around. Be patient out there, and don't fall for it.

hunghuatang

The relationship between the two number matrices—the Back-card and the Front-card—clearly plays a complementary role in forming this stage-performance puzzle. At the same time, both matrices are solvable; in essence, they can be regarded as known. None of the numerical information printed on these cards is actually needed. How can the magician determine the chosen number solely from the volunteer’s answers about whether it appears on the six perforated cards? This is the final mile of the puzzle—the winner is already poised to cross the finish line. By “winner,” I mean the person who provides the best solution, one that explains the key insight. Solutions obtained through brute force or with the assistance of AI are to be excluded. It is estimated that someone should solve the puzzle within three days. The BTC award will go to the best answer among all responses submitted within that period. If multiple answers are equally strong, priority will be given to the earliest submission.

PenguinsInvading

What do you mean by BTC inflation? BTC by definition is anty-inflationary.

Wonderful_End_1396

So how many dollars did you spend to obtain 1 BTC

tenor_tymir

Greed. As long as people believe BTC is going to rise before/after the halving, they are going to buy it. It’s human psychology. It’s easy, it’s predictable, it’s held true so far. I count on human greed.

Bogdanoff_dump_it

Yes, every Monday I buy BTC, ETH and SOL. I do have some cash sidelined in case of a further drop.

DrGoozoo

Remember NFT? Someone I know was in the planning phases of BTC, he told me it’s the biggest rug pull in history.

Available_Win5204

Exactly. 100% agree. I actually think anyone still holding BTC should be ashamed of themselves for this reason. Zero fucking respect for someone making up endless excuses for supporting something that is so abysmally power-hungry for no other reason than their own greed.

IReallyHateAsthma

Need to see this again a logarithmic BTC price

no_choice99

5 years ago when BTC was at 55k people claimed BTC 500k to 1 M within 5 years. Those messages were the ones upvoted by reddit. BTC didn't beat inflation, lol. So, well...

darkrood

Not likely, and I am speaking as someone who dislikes BTC, it’s likely around 55k to 60k top for bottom. If Oct 2026 is not a new low or similar low In June, then we’ve entered new meta.

United_Weight3580

Simply put I don't need the money i invested right now and for the foreseeable future. I just parked it on BTC and will only sell when it inevitably goes high again. I don't even look at the price daily. I have an alert at x2 my basis cost and I chill

p1n13d

Couldn’t have said it better myself. BTC on its own had its chance and failed spectacularly! I also think after Trump fucks off there will be investigations into crypto and it will be the cases of flagrant theft and fraud which will spend the end then it’ll be cast back to the dark markets. Everything that orange pedophile touches turns to shit lol