BTC

sicknal

Just sell a small part for a down payment, the interest will ne high but you can refinance in 1-2 years when BTC comes back up and put more money down, however who knows what the interest rate will be then.

malte_brigge

I'm all for hopium, but that guy is delusional if he thinks that some LTHs haven't been selling. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC collectively sold about 45,000 coins in the past week alone. Obviously not every whale is also an LTH or OG, but many are.

read--write

Recently AI cracked long intractable mathematical proof that it evaded the world's best mathematicians for many decades. It is not impossible, maybe not improbable, that AI or Quantum computing in the not distant fiture solves/hacks now secure storage and/or transmission mechanisms of digital currency. That reality is part of the new math and pricing for BTC. https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-math-solves-erdos-problem-openai-c4029e84?st=ZMAHcx&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Aggravating_Ring_714

You buy BTC now, it’ll 2x in a few years. As simple as that.

Romanizer

Whatever makes the masses think it's a good idea. After all, somewhat >1 million BTC have been already taken out of the hands of short-term investors during the last bull run. Should get easier from here.

WhaleWilliam

The stock market always takes the lead in risk assets though. When have you ever seen Bitcoin go up before the stock market does? Usually the money that flows into BTC comes from other 'risk assets' like stocks. Outflows from crypto usually go towards cash to pay debt. It's not normal that people take company sized loans to buy btc. The big money always comes from growth in the stock market

HSuke

Microstrategy's basic mNAV is at 0.58, and their shareholders are tired of being diluted. Now that enterprise mNAV has dropped below 0.99, they're running out of excuses for not selling BTC. I'm expecting a large BTC sale next month.

Followerofhashem

stop with the fcking charts already. they mean nothing. BTC will be worth millions each.

ConsistentRub934

Real. I had to make a rule that rent and food money never enters the sat calculator. Whatever is left goes into BTC, and the small bit I keep on Nexo is set to earn in BTC too. Keeps me from becoming a full ramen monk every month.

Marco27021986

I understand maths and economics and still cannot see me getting BTC for 25 years investment

AlternativePut87

Yeah honestly not sure how I feel about BTC anymore. I will load up on the dip but not expecting anything crazy.

Rock_Strongo

BTC dips always coincide when I lack fiat for various reasons. Every single time. Wish I could be stacking right now, but have other financial obligations. By the time I have more dry powder I'm sure the dip will be over.

EconomistNo5807

Problem is there are no underlying numbers sustaining the price.....now it faces a new problem where there have been much better investments over the past 5 years for: Stability, growth, hedge ect...or all the above. I don't see BTC making any enormous moves over the next decade as big money can more safely invest in other things. Total crypto market cap of every crypto in the world is only half the size of apple's market cap. It's not a hugely pervasive market, and carries risks that traditional assets don't. I think once hype begins to wear (it's already showing the cracks), things will slowly move downward. But who knows, I still hold some BTC just incase of the hail Mary parabolic explosion :)

jgarcya

The money is made when there is blood in the streets... Everything BTC is doing is exactly what it's supposed to do. Keep on dropping... I got a fortune to make.

FunWithSkooma

15 min video explaining the basics of BTC is enough to teach someoen everything they need, but people are not willing to give 15 min of their life to learn it, but hell they will spend an hour on tiktok.

fuegoblue

I get your point but no, $1M BTC is a $20 trillion market cap, which is slightly more than 5% of $350 trillion

Disastrous_Fee5953

I still remember people being pumped for “uptober” last year, expecting BTC to go to 200K. Good times.

Caspica

Remember when BTC went below $80k and people said it was going to bounce back any second now? 🤣

NoBrosCrypto

Ouch, that's horrible timing. I would look into Bitcoin backed loans if any products out there are mature enough. It is just starting to pick up, some bigger lenders are starting to offer it in the US. Just be sure to check the terms and make sure you can never be liquidated on LVR. Otherwise if you must sell - just do it now. It could go up, but it could also go down. Just lock in the amount and keep it. But man will you be kicking yourself if BTC actually does hit the $1M, $10M+ in 10 years time. Or you could be relieved because it all went to zero. Risk management and life goals are the key but personally I'd be exploring how I could hang on to my Bitcoin at all costs.

_Stylite

Again, please provide any evidence of a major bank being denied an investment in BTC. Show me any evidence for any regulation which forced banks to list their BTC as a liability. Clarity Act is not changing any of this, and SAB-121 was indeed fully rescinded by the SEC. Try again. I also don’t take any meds, and I don’t have anxiety. Bizarre comment weirdo

Potatotornado20

I would take $40k to mean the power prediction of $1M by 2033-37 to be off the table since the model has broken. I want at least a 10x in the next 10yrs, and there’d be other assets out there that could give me that. I’d still always have a small bit in BTC though, just in case diminishing returns gave way to S curve adoption.

BaseEight

It actually wouldn't be a great bet in cash. I don't think BTC is going to hit 200 but I just wanted to point out of the bet was in BTC it would be seriously unbalanced.

BaseEight

Assuming you mean 10k in cash and not 10k in BTC that would be worth $40 this seems like a safe bet to take against you for a person who buys options over the next 10 years.

tbiscus

Still doesn't seem like nearly enough capitulation. If there was one thing that points to "this time is different" it would be the presence of the ETFs which it least adds an element of "trading like a stock" to the equation. Indeed, eyeballing IBIT, I think it launched when BTC was approximately $50k and dipped briefly when BTC dropped to around $43k...oh look, two numbers folks often toss out as possible bottoms for this cycle (admittedly, $37k gets a lot of play too). I'm guessing Larry Fink isn't going to look forward to appearing on CNBC and answering the question "*How do you answer questions about why every single IBIT holder is underwater*?".

Turbulent-Land-5664

I would like to run a model, but it is impossible without knowing the price of BTC each year. But how about this: my original idea. I take 4% of one BTC. 0.04 for each of 25 years. Except, when 0.04% is higher than 7k. Then I only take that amount - thats all I want.

Easymacsauce

Sell now, if it was my BTC I wouldn’t leave it up to chance. I don’t believe the bottom is in yet, I have 52k as my bottom this cycle and I will move out of my tech and AI stocks and all into BTC at that price point.

omjagvarensked

Idk my bank already doesn't charge any fees for transfer. EFTPOS does, but my bank doesn't. Get a better bank maybe? Also "why does the money we earn lose value?" Buddy if I was paid in Bitcoin, the money I earnt at the start of the year would literally be worth -43% today.... As that's how BTC has performed this year lol that's pretty crazy, BTC never has been and never will be "currency" it's just not going to happen. Y'all praise the volatility and crazy swings of BTC but if any real currency did that then it becomes worthless very fast.

Appropriate_Roof_862

Spot on. My thought process on BTC is this: Only put in what you can afford. Buy in at a price that you are mentally ok with and an amount that is financially sound for your situation, but never all the fiat you have set aside for BTC at once. Then place buys at points that lower your cost average only. Don’t chase highs!!! You have to be ok with orders never being filled. If you have money set aside for it, and it’s sitting there waiting on a fill order and it never fills, your money is still there. You didn’t lose anything. The thought of missing the train in my opinion is a scare tactic. Investing is risk management and risk tolerance. You have to be ok with the amount you’re investing and losing it all. Let’s face it. No one knows exactly what BTC or the stock market will do. Legislation, utility and usage, global and economic conditions can change in the blink of an eye and can cause violent price fluctuations up or down. Gone are the days of ground zero and making $1 million off of a $5000 investment. So pick a dollar amount that you believe BTC will realistically reach in 10 years, decide how much money you can invest in BTC, ignore the noise and enjoy the ride up or down.

Faster_than_FTL

So basically inflation. If you found a way to invest your USD such that it beats inflation, you would be fine. Right? I don't know where you get the idea that you have to be an expert in everything though. I know plenty of well to do people who don't need to be an expert in everything, just have the means to hire/outsource where needed. I think this has no relevance to out discussion at hand and BTC going to $1M won't solve this or inflation.

_Stylite

Please provide any evidence for your comment RE Bitcoin being forcibly listed as a liability by the SEC. It sounds like you’re confused again - referring to SAB 121 which has already been repealed prior to Clarity Act. It’s not changing anything related to BTC designation as a libaility on balance sheets. Please provide any proof for this hopium bullshit you’re spewing

Powerful-Set-5754

Talk about it. Lost 5 BTC the same way

CM19901

Someone I know just bought BTC. Was apparently waiting for under 60k.

DiverNovel4380

Yes BTC Puzzle #71... Join Community Ca.: BrbTtwbR4e1DoGwt8VeBSmX7XAWW3bHeNtzH74whpump 

NielsAurora

No? If Bitcoin becomes low that 4% Bitcoin will be the exact same, but it'll be less fiat. Scenario: Today 1 Bitcoin Next year withdrawal 4% (0.04 BTC) Balance next year will be 0.96 BTC after that Next year 0.96 Bitcoin next year withdrawal 4% Balance will be 0.9216 Btc after that. The withdrawal keeps becoming less and less Bitcoin but probably more and more fiat.

AP_lookingahead

The current price of BTC

Turbulent-Land-5664

Thats true, but if the total value becomes quite low, that 4% fiat will be more than 4% BTC - if I am understanding you correcty.

elrosegod

did they use a cryptographic strength encryption? if no, then BTC is doomed but if they can assure against getting cracked then theisable long term. I think security is the long issue rn.

Additional_Hat_9313

Quando o Bitcoin cair lembre-se pelo qual motivo você comprou, crises passam o fundamento do BTC continuam.

ProtectionMoney9176

Man, that is a classic and painful lesson. You are totally right, cross margin is a trap when you mix BTC with volatile alts. It looks great on paper to prevent liquidations, but during a systemic flush, alts dump 3x harder and just drag your safe BTC positions into the grave with them. Switching to isolated with strict stops is the best move you could have made. Glad you recovered from the hit, thanks for sharing the reminder.

Fit_Olive_3212

If you save your money in BTC you probably dont have 10k if it hits 200 😂 I dont say it will hit 200 but it could happen, becouse if it dips hard its gonna go faster, but there also will be people who wont accept it and buy more.

Faster_than_FTL

Sorry don't understand...how is wealth being stolen? By inflation? And why will BTC go up to a $1M to counter that?

Turbulent-Land-5664

I think BTC is too volatile for that - for me to depend upon. I will take 4% if 1 BTC up to about 7k max. Thats all I want to supplement my retirement income.

seansy5000

I wish I could get someone to take a bet on that. I’d bet $10k that BTC doesn’t hit $200 in the next 10 years.

AutoModerator

Post is by: ApplicationNew4144 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1uhbhco/cross_margin_is_how_a_15_btc_wick_cost_me_the/ I got liquidated on June 4 even though my biggest position was a BTC long at 3x. Not because BTC moved too much, but because I had SOL and AVAX perps open on the same account and cross margin meant they all shared one collateral pool. When the wick hit, alts dumped harder than BTC, and the combined drawdown pulled the whole account below maintenance. The BTC position on its own would have survived easily. A 3x long does not liquidate on a 15% move. That is the part that still annoys me. Cross margin felt safer on paper because unused margin backs every position, but what it really does is let your weakest trade kill the rest. I started checking how different platforms handle the isolated vs cross choice. Some make you dig through settings before you can switch. BYDFi makes you pick isolated or cross per position before confirming the order. It is one extra click but it would have kept my BTC walled off from the alt liquidation. Not saying that platform is special, just that the UX choice is the kind of guardrail I wish I had hit. Now I open everything isolated with individual stops. If one trade blows up it takes only that collateral. Cross still makes sense if you are hedging the same pair or running a tight arb, but I will not run a portfolio of volatile alts on shared margin again. Learned it the expensive way. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

__Ken_Adams__

They don't have to take over the administration & security if they don't want to. It's a choice. If they want to just immediately sell it all that is their option. To oversee that (since you keep mentioning that your beneficiaries will get scammed), it wouldn't be that hard to find & designate someone you trust to step in & help with the handling & sale of the btc upon your death. You're so inflexible about the idea that "BTC hard, no one understand" it's almost comical. You've pre-determined that bitcoin is too difficult for you & your family, so just don't invest in it. No one is forcing you to.

eddyblat

The prefs are not listed as debt on their balance sheets for a reason. They are friendly handshake IOU's at best. MSTR is the parent company, not STRC. MSTR survival is more important than pref survival. The prospectus says they can permanently suspend all dividends forever, their choice. The btc acquired through the ATM programs are unencumbered completely. If MSTR walks away from dividend obligations it makes that $10B or whatever of BTC almost free. Remember when META kept pumping with every layoff announcement? If MSTR announced a big giant FU to all preferred obligations they would drop to $50 pre market, $65 market open, and be $200 within 3 weeks. The market is forward looking. No debt, no dividends, $40B btc. Bullish af.

YahushaHamashiach

BTC will bottom 36-45k in October. Sell now.

PuddingInMyPants

If I needed to convert BTC to USD in 6 weeks Id have open orders between 70-75k. 75 is probably about the top of the current trend.

Ar0war

it will pass it. I mean in this live there is nothing sure but big players love to make money on BTC and dump on retail when the hype is high. I am not talking here about BTC being the next currency blablabla, no. I am saying that big whales make millions and more millions with it, and they will keep doing so. This is literaly a money printer for them

jrafelson

Have you seen Coinbases mortgage program where you can borrow against BTC for a home loan? No selling and from my understanding no liquidation if the price falls.

WastelandOfConfusion

There is no Bullish case. Just sell everything you have and re-buy it at $20k BTC. Or alternatively, watch the value of your holdings plummet by another fkn ton. Luckily, I’ve shorted the whole way this cycle. I’m very happy.

SYNDK8D

They won’t use BTC for this. They will use a stable coin most likely

_Stylite

The idea that Clarity Act passes and suddenly the next year there will be billions in inflows from banks and monry managers with fiduciary dity is a pipe dream and there is no reason to believe that. There is literally nothing stopping any ofmthe parties you mentioned from buying BTC derivatives, ETFs, commodities contracts and pegging a client’s portfolio to BTC to any degree, other than the market risk of the investment. What do you think stops any of those funds from riding BTC investment through other vehicles? BTC ETF’s are already here my friend, and ETFs are the preferred vehicle for all money managers under fiduciary duty. Once ahaincyou have demonstrated thet you have no idea what you are talking about. And btw banks avoid BTC because it’s their competition, and also too risky. Nothing to do with regulation or compliance at all

Acceptable-Risks

Buy and hold and DCA. You are very foolish to think you can time the bottom. Creating taxable events and thinking it's smart to go in and out of BTC is what stupid people and paper hands do.

Middle-Wrangler2729

For me, the question has never been about the future value of $BTC. The reason I do not buy it is because I have read many stories about hacking and scams which lead me to not feel secure in my investment. I do not understand the technology enough to protect myself from thieves. At least with a bank there is deposit insurance.

RoyalMushroom6202

I believe in BTC, but I’ll be honest, I am no expert. But at this point, with so many institutional investors or whatever you want to refer them as, I don’t think BTC will fail because why would they let a market fail that has already proven to be profitable for so many? Or if you want to be more negative about it, a market that they can so easily manipulate. Pull some profits in the bull runs and stack in the pull backs. DCA if you can.

tigidig3x

If it dips? I'd borrow a generous lumpsum from my fiat savings, dump it all to BTC, then slowly repay the fiat I borrowed. Rinse and repeat.

devCheckingIn

BTC is just one big gigantic memecoin.

swissfamrob

What growth rate? You mean price performance? Also I don’t think an S curve even describes BTC’s historical movements

Romanizer

It's $1.7 bn per year. Their BTC reserve is 30x that at $51 bn. I don't think any company in the world has a runway that long.

DrawingWorldly5795

BTC has a finite supply, simple supply and demand, it's popular, the talk of the town, and tons of people are getting in or already in. I theorize demand slowly increases faster than supply increases over time until it tops out. I believe it will pop, just not sure when. I have some, wish I had more, I keep buying the dips. We'll see in a few years or so............

PureCod9290

Nope. It is collapsing because of serious concerns about their creditworthiness MSTR is trading at a discount to NAV, so dilution of common stock is terrible right now. Their sale of 32 BTC tanked sentiment and even the notion of them selling might drive BTC down another 10% or more. Perhaps their best option is suspending dividends, which they are allowed to do at any time... The market sees this

No-Admin1684

Those 15 years also paint a picture of slowing growth, with most bull runs having a weaker % increase than the previous one. BTC will eventually perform similar to gold, because that's what it has become, a store of value. It will never stop going up in price when measured against an inflationary currency, but its days of outperforming other assets by a huge margin are effectively over.

__The__Anomaly__

How long have you been in BTC?

UrbanGrower187

Coca-Cola isn’t a comparable example because its supply isn’t fixed, it isn’t a monetary network, and it doesn’t have the same adoption dynamics. My thesis isn’t “Bitcoin went up before so it’ll go up again.” It’s that Bitcoin’s fundamentals today scarcity, institutional demand, ETF inflows, and growing global adoption support a bullish outlook. Historical returns are just context, not the thesis. And saying BTC could go to $100 or $1,000,000 isn’t a useful investment thesis every asset has upside and downside. The question is which outcome is more probable based on the available evidence.

_Stylite

And to explain this for you further - the tjing which is causing massive capital outflows from BTC and creating risk of future outflows, is **market risk, not regulatory risk.** Fund managers aren’t sitting on their hands wishing they could buy BTC because of regulatory risk. This has actually never meaningfully stopped institutional investment on BTC - those institutions acquired hundreds of billions of BTC. The Clarity Act removes an insignificant portion of regulatory risk from an asset which is extremely volatile - the market risk far outweighs any regulatory risk by a long shot, and it’s always been like that.

Turbulent-Land-5664

What kind of math are you using? My strategy is 4% of whatever value of a BTC is - that will give me some income for 25 years to 0. But I actually plan to cap the draws - so if the value of BTC soars the max I would take out is still small in comparison. But as I am taking money out every year, if theres a new ATH, I might convert more to a stable coin to cover off 4 years - just for some peace of mind. Then maybe I can put that stable coin somewhere to earn a bit of interest, not sure how all that works.

Raquepas97

By that logic you should invest into coca cola, with the stocks split since the IPO you would be up more than 10 million % Past performance isn't indicative of the future, BTC could go down to 100$ as much as it can go up to 1 000 000$, it's gambling

_Stylite

Show me any cases where significant funds have been blocked from BTC investment by compliance attorneys. Every major wall street fund has owned BTC for years now buddy. They started in 2014. Please wake up

_Stylite

Again, it does nothing for bullishness of crypto or BTC. It is opening the door for more nee blockchains to enter as scams and rugpulls, and that’s why they’re removing SEC oversight on crypto. If this is a bullish scenario to you, get your head out of your ass please.

LTP-N

Doesn't matter what you think either. All crypto is useless and we're all out here gambling, get off your high horse, you don't know any more or less than the rest of us. Before you cry and reply saying I'm salty because I obviously hold alt coins, correct, but my gamblings are 50% BTC, 30% ETH, 10% XTZ and 10% ZEC.

xean333

The broader market is prepared (and has started) to move out of risk. BTC bloodbath will follow

joatmone

Heard this in 2022! Once BTC runs alt coins will double from here. Easy. Just sell and be done.

Jacmac_

BTC has been on a perpetual dip for the last year.

Improv13

All dependent on BTC price. If I were to guess 2-3 years.

Historical_Blood_408

the "taking profit vs needing liquidity" split is a good distinction — people conflate those and they're genuinely different decisions. borrowing against the position has a tax logic to it, but it adds liquidation risk right when alts are most volatile, which is the opposite of what i want near a top. how do you think about that liq risk — only borrow against BTC/ETH, or against alts too?

TheBigLR901

Thats a good sign... BTC is following an established trend. I'd be worried if retail was saying it wasn't dead.

JunkBondJunkie

I will trade my honey production for BTC. I have 5 gallon buckets of honey.

SYNDK8D

BTC has 9 lives

jongolfpro

Saylor is not selling everything. He sold an insignificant amount (0.0038% of his stack) for reasons unknown to us, probably to prove to investors BTC is liquid, or maybe to raise $2.5mil quick and easy rather than the hassle of issuing more shares. The following week he bought $110m. If you check the numbers on the Strategy website they have enough cash reserves to pay dividends for about 20 months. And that doesn’t include raising any more cash or their cash flow from software. He’ll make it through this bear market no prob.

Flexerrr

Anyone still holding altcoins is delusional. They don’t have any utility, cant store value and there is no hype either, as AI is riding the hype train right now. So just buy BTC, or don’t hold crypto at all

UrbanGrower187

When I was doing larger spot buys I purchased 1/2 a coin when prices where at 16k on the last crash and I’m sad I didn’t buy more when I was doing those larger spot buys… but yeah last three years just do steady daily buys reduces my stress a ton and noticed a decent steady increase over the last 3 years in valuation despite buying everyday. BTC “dies” a lot over the life span it’s had kinda cool how it never does though.

joelus666

Is this gonna help push BTC back up to a new high!?

Educational_Cable405

It's not useless, it's underspecified. Dominance going up can mean BTC is pumping or it can mean alts are bleeding out faster than BTC, two totally opposite tapes, and the single line won't tell you which one is happening. I never read it alone, I put it next to total2 or just an ETH/BTC chart so I know which leg is actually moving. By itself it's noise, paired up it's a decent filter for whether I should be holding alts at all that week.

RandomPlayerCSGO

Not BTC dominance itself but it is common for experience crypto traders to trade alts against BTC, cause basically if your alt does not overperform btc you should just be in BTC.

Norkis_13

Crypto does not need to kill the dollar to go up. Most people are not buying BTC because they think the US will wake up next Tuesday and retire the petrodollar

AdVisible298

Most of the world uses SWIFT. And outside the US are a lot of countries where the argument for BTC is even stronger.

Successful-Web-8715

Because they have mostly issued stock at a massive premium to buy bitcoin. How do you think despite having a cost basis lower than the current BTC price that their stock has risen 566% since they started buying?

thelonghand

I really hope we don’t look back in a decade or two and find out that Bitcoin’s price rising was caused by all the money printing in response to the pandemic. Even aside from whales I wonder how many retail investors used their stimulus checks to buy Bitcoin. I don’t subscribe to the 4-year cycle because just in the course of its existence the macro situation with the economy has not been stable to say the least, launching at the tail end of the Global Financial Crisis and mooning after COVID make me weary of putting too much weight on past trends. Its rise to ATHs is much more likely a result of society and the market recognizing its utility and the long-term benefits BTC will bring to society but if it was all a mirage we might get stuck in the doldrums.

devCheckingIn

You can track IBIT flows here: [https://www.coinglass.com/etf/bitcoin](https://www.coinglass.com/etf/bitcoin) In both BTC and USD.

SYNDK8D

The whole point of BTC is decentralization and transparency. I think that’s the whole point 😂

Reach_Beyond

Almost definitely not. It has no more 100x investment. Long or mid term 10x sure, 15x maybe. Whatever the mid to long term gain could be at this point, it’s no 100x. A handful of regular stocks will be able to beat BTC in the next 5/10/20 years.

HSuke

If they stop paying STRC dividends, Microstrategy is dead. That's pretty much the final straw that will break all trust in Microstrategy. They have cash reserves to pay until early 2027. That's it. There are 6 convertible notes with put dates between 2027 and 2029. They are puttable before 2030. Exact value of all obligations before 2030 is over $13B. If MSTR starts paying off all those obligations, it will lose half of its value, and it doesn't have enough value to pay off $13B. So they will eventually need to sell BTC unless the bull market begins by 2028 to early 2029.

TheManBL2020

'There is no better buy than BTC' This is nonsense.

devCheckingIn

How do I see Peter Schiff all over the media ragging on BTC for being down when gold is down 30% itself (so far) and is clearly in a bear market also?

mark35435

Impressive how many people hold the BTC turd given the massive tech boom which has just happened

United_Weight3580

The regards who sell today because "bItCoIn iS dEaD" are the same ones who rushing to buy when the price crosses 100k again. If you believe BTC will ever rise above 120k again, buying today GUARANTEES to double your money. If this happens thia year or the next one or in 2030 idk. But I challenge you to find another instrument that you know can have a 100% return in 1-4 years

devCheckingIn

29,110 BTC were sold from ETFs this week. Still a million more to go!

DontLook_Weirdo

I do. Every three months or so I end up hitting 1m sats and then it automatically transfers that amount to my trezor. My entire BTC operation is taking care of itself lol

MF_Price

I would much rather have had my money in MU leaps in 2026. BTC is good if you want a "set it and forget it" investment.