Reddit Posts
$40 Gift Me Crypto voucher, selling for $35 BTC
I sold at $65,400, twenty minutes before the big candle to $69k😔
Build, backtest & deploy propfirm bots in minutes, for free. Looking for feedback!
Can someone shed some light on this article?
Looking for some Bitcoin Testnet3 tBTC for testing — any help would be greatly appreciated
BTC just squeezed $1.4B in shorts. Now it’s hitting descending resistance.
Bitcoin’s Capitulation Dashboard Is Flashing 8 Out of 12 Red — Is This What a Bottom Looks Like? VanEck Says Eight of Twelve Capitulation Signals Are Flashing as Long-Term Holders Dump 356,000 BTC — Exactly the Kind of Pain That Has Historically Preceded Bitcoin’s Best Opportunities.
What just caused this sudden BTC spike?
It's a real shame what happened with Coinkite since they do make some cool BTC utilities
J'ai créé un outil pour projeter la valeur future de son wallet crypto
BTC's been chopping in the same range for almost 2 months, worth knowing what's underneath it
*BTC reclaimed its key moving averages, but ~$65K is still the level that matters*
Built a lightweight Windows desktop widget to check live BTC prices without extra tabs or quitting games
If someone managed to steal Satoshi’s BTC, would the community hunt them down, or would people actually be impressed and just let it slide?
Launching a BTC position-management system - looking for feedback from long-term holders
Krackpot: brute-force the Puzzle 71 wallet in your browser
6 BTC is sitting in a wallet that was built to be cracked.
Adoption increasing as Citi confirms Bitcoin custody launch for institutional clients, starting later this year
GoMining launched a zero-fee BTC payment protocol called GoBTC Pay - Preview
GoMining launched a zero-fee BTC payment protocol called - Preview
Do you treat all your crypto assets as long-term holdings?
How would the Coldcard attackers actually cash out the stolen BTC?
What are your thoughts on this?
As long as there's crypto, liquidity, and speculation crypto might evolve but won't die. Prove me wrong.
Is Abra legit? Considering using the yield product for BTC
Is Abra legit? Considering using the yield product for BTC
What is your estimated bottom price for this BTC bear market and when?
Some hopium from a veteran of the 2022 bear market.
Saylor's Strategy Adds $150M as BTC Buying Stays on Hold
Forbes highlights summer illiquidity and macro factors (CPI, Fed, Clarity Act) keeping BTC in consolidation. Are we breaking out or testing support next?
Are we wasting Bitcoin by only holding it?
BTC down ~49% this year, Strategy preferreds holding
Quiet sessions often reveal more than noisy ones.
The Coldcard Exploit (July/Aug 2026): xpub and the Theory of the "Blind" Brute-Force Attack
The market has been wrong evaluating Litecoin for almost a decade.
zach was right about "all hardware wallets are complete garbage"
Never have seen a BTC 1h chart which was more boring than this
Free $200 BTC I will teach you how to get it immediately signup with Robinhood App only
I audited DrProfit’s own VIP Telegram history from 2022–2026. Here’s what his actual prediction record looks like.
The Coldcard Exploit (July/Aug 2026): Why the "PRNG Bug" Alone Does Not Quantify the On-Chain Evidence
Is trezor the only company with no history of remote attacks on their HW
MSCI's Bitcoin Purge: Strategy and Metaplanet Could Be Kicked Out for Owning Too Much BTC.
BTC is already 50% off its high. Does that actually protect it from an equity selloff?
Anyone Got a ColdCard that had 1 BTC in it, and lost it all?
Do you think BTC becoming more mature and less volatile could help quality altcoins rise and most altcoins to fade away?
I audited DrProfit’s own VIP Telegram history from 2022–2026. Here’s what his actual prediction record looks like.
I audited DrProfit’s own Premium content history from 2022–2026. Here’s what his actual prediction record looks like.
The Coldcard hacker seeing the 0.00042069 BTC in my wallet
Best way to move old CoinJoined BTC back to an exchange?
Have you guys seen this new 5-second tap trading trend popping up in DeFi? What are your initial thoughts?
Altcoins and crypto ain't dead and BTC and ETH is not the only way (although it's the safest one). Prove me wrong.
What if Bitcoin wasn’t lagging M2, but actually front-running the liquidity slowdown? 👀
[Self promotion] Level of book data 2 on binance
How do you guys get your bias before day trading BTC and ETH?
Mentions
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That's my point, if they DON'T think it's over... then it probably is. That's why buying fear and selling greed work as general rules... I called a BTC low approximately 35 minutes after the February low simply due to capitulatory volume, an extreme volatility reading (largest in the cycle) and a historical fear print. I was ultimately wrong about that being the low... but that low held for like 3 months, do you understand how tradeable that is?
Hacker fuks have had supercomputers on this for years. Especially when BTC was at $120k. Confirmation of the solid SHA256 cryptographic hash. Quantum computers are no match either.
Bitcoin is pristine collateral, it is A) a tool to provide the OPTIONALITY of reducing counter-party risk (this comes with a tradeoff, but for some is an absolute life line when needed), and B) a long-term debasement hedge. Long-term because of it's immaturity as an asset, but this is what solutions like STRC try to give people who want to try and front-run that long-term capability and bring SOME of that functionality forward into the future. The best way for MOST normal, first world people to use BTC right now is to heavily accumulate when it is below business cycle fair values (so, now) and have a long duration view, using it (if comfortable with some counter-party risk) to reduce the rate on their mortgage for example. Actually locking it up, saving it, and getting a financial benefit in the here and now. Bitcoin isn't about changing the government or something, it is about diversifying your risks from debasement - at least on the financial investment side of things. BTC is not a good currency for spending, because it is too valuable for that. Unless you are "SPENDING" (trading) it to buy undervalued (or fair-valued) strong assets to diversify your book at times when BTC is specifically over-valued. This is a bit difficult to do (not that hard though, just plot a 0 to 1 fib between the 2 year and 2 year x 5 MA on a log chart, and when BTC crosses the 0.5 threshold, put in a trailing stop below monthly bullish higher closes). So if you think Apple is cheap or fairly valued at a given time when BTC is ripping... great, go get her tiger... but assets for assets. Dollars are ONLY FOR IMMEDIATE LIQUIDITY, particularly in a crisis.
rYou’re so right. I have $200K worth of Bitcoin that I bought at $80K, and you better believe I’m going to sell everything and never invest in BTC again. I’ve been in the red since October 2025, while missing out on dividends and the S&P 500. I’ve really learned what “opportunity cost” means with Bitcoin. It’s been my worst investment ever.
The crowd is nothing but group-think. And I’d hardly say that the overwhelming majority of BTC holders think the bear market is over.
Buying strc to nearly 100 where mstr starts buying BTC again
You're on a BTC sub, I have been researching this all year. The prevailing narrative is 100% not on the side of the bulls... which is great for the bulls.
Someone who isn’t even into crypto repeated this to me today. Said he was planning to buy some BTC for the first time in late October. There is no way this narrative plays out with everyone and their mother expecting a bottom in that timeframe.
Same here around 14 BTC but it wasn’t worth 3K USD at the time
So long as the money printer exists there really is no limit to how high BTC can go when measured in USD. Thats the entire point.
Been DCAing 5$ a day since April 2025, with a few 500$ purchases along the way. I'm sitting on 0.15 BTC at around 10k value. DCA is the way.
I like your write up, but I will make the following counterpoints for posterity. **Durability**: Bitcoin has only existed since 2009, mere decades. Gold has served as money for millennia, so it scores higher than BTC Also, bitcoin is at risk of being usurped by another "better" token. As someone said "The first car isn't the best car, the first cellphone isn't the best cellphone" and as such I can totally see some other technology replacing it within our life time. **Security** is also a huge issue and the reason I'd never recommend any crypto to anyone, we've all seen how easy it is for Joe Public to lose everything in an instant. Gold storage has been tired and true and is guaranteed by insurance underwriters. Good luck recovering your crypto when something goes wrong. **Value**: Since bitcoin derives it's price from highly speculative markets, it's value is not as stable as gold has been. To some this is a weakness, to others it has been a welcome trait. **Luckily** you can fractionally allocate as much or as little of either asset in your portfolio as you want =)
Now do 7 years... 2000% profit in BTC vs 230% VOO 😆
The squeeze didn’t just come out of nowhere. Treasury moved to increase long bond buybacks, long yields eased, the dollar weakened, and BTC already had a couple days of ETF inflows behind it. That gave Bitcoin the initial push through the resistance area everyone had been shorting against. Once BTC broke through that level, the shorts started getting liquidated. When a short gets liquidated, the position has to buy BTC back, so that forced buying pushes the price higher, which liquidates more shorts, which creates even more buying. That’s how you end up with roughly $1.4B in shorts getting wiped out in a few hours and BTC basically going straight up. So the short squeeze was the accelerator, not necessarily the original cause. Now the important part is whether actual spot and ETF buyers keep buying after all that forced short covering fuel is gone.
BTC is anti fiat. It’s one in the same
The squeeze didn’t just come out of nowhere. Treasury moved to increase long bond buybacks, long yields eased, the dollar weakened, and BTC already had a couple days of ETF inflows behind it. That gave Bitcoin the initial push through the resistance area everyone had been shorting against. Once BTC broke through that level, the shorts started getting liquidated. When a short gets liquidated, the position has to buy BTC back, so that forced buying pushes the price higher, which liquidates more shorts, which creates even more buying. That’s how you end up with roughly $1.4B in shorts getting wiped out in a few hours and BTC basically going straight up. So the short squeeze was the accelerator, not necessarily the original cause. Now the important part is whether actual spot and ETF buyers keep buying after all that forced short covering fuel is gone.
I just zoomed out. BTC is looking terrible....
It's relevant in the sense that is playing catchtup. S&P up 230% from 2019 till now while BTC is up over 2,000% over same time.
Tell us why you buy BTC?
This sub will never understand Chainlink. They’ll just keep buying BTC because they have no idea how blockchain technology is actually going to be utilized. All they understand is that the number might go up because they bought it.
Awesome! Look at it right now! 69k! Great decision. I purchase 5k BTC per week for my daughter’s future!!
Strange. So BTC is tied somehow to the Japanese bond market??? Who would have guessed?
You will never loose on BTC long term ever.
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Could it be because people are or were unable to buy BTC in their retirement accounts?
Tattoo the BTC logo on your face
What are you saying bro? There is no BTC CEO dumping the price? I was just talking to them yesterday.
leverage gamblers are the bottom tier of BTC investors.
Sorry since you posted, BTC is up 1k.
Ride the waves Been here pre split Up big even in this crypto winter and no worries at all holding MSTR. Trust in Saylor bro. You remind of the haters from back in 2012-2014 who were so sure BTC was a scam. Worse thing someone could have done is listen to them. I play to win and win big.
Maybe this was an insurance bet and they are hodling a huge stack of BTC But I'm leaning more towards down syndrome 👇
BTC is totally hitting $40k by year end 😂
Who in the right mind is shorting BTC??????
What the hell is a "Bitcoin CEO"? Nobody ownes BTC blockchain!
I believe if BTC breaks out and goes on a real run then Hype will lead most Alts. You can take profits long before trump is investigated for any crypto schemes
BTC will always remain king of crypto
Your biggest threat vector then is Schor's algo and some future quantum computer with massive Qbits but if you sent your BTC to a wallet that just HODLs and never sends then it pretty much eliminates that.
This looks awesome, esp. the documentation is top-notch :) Kudos to the security PoV you've mentioned in the repo. I think it's an interesting approach not storing the secrets on the device, so you've to enter the words everytime (if I understood it correctly o.c.). The question I'd ask myself: Is it more secure to store my secrets somewhere else and I've to type it in everytime, or is it more secure to store the secrets on the stick on an encrypted partition? Of course, at the end you need that secret to decrypt the partition as well, so we're back on square one :) I don't want to be dis-encouraging, but have you ever had a look at Tails OS, because it kinda does something similar (with Electrum). However, yours is much more targeted to BTC signing (without secret store) only, while Tails does a bit more (persistent storage, encryption with LUKS, tools to backup persistent storage, etc.). It probably depends what you're looking for. I like the idea of having an USB stick (with a backup stick), with an OS booting into RAM only, and an encrypted partition with the wallet on there (which can be encrypted again with another passphrase). I personally don't want to restore the wallet every time, since typing in the secret words adds an attack vector. You'll have the same with Tails, but let's say a camera or keylogger (physical or wireless) records your keystrokes: with Tails they only know the passphrase for the encrypted volume and they still need the USB stick (2FA, what you get & what you know). With your solution they would've the seed / private key (1FA, what you know). I think that's the biggest attack vector you've. Because of that, I'd rather have my private key (or equivalent) encrypted on the stick (or a hardware wallet), than externally and I'd have to type it in every time.
Depends when you bought. What’s more likely to happen first? SPX $7000 to $14,000 for a 2x? Or BTC $60,000 to $120,000 for a 2x. 🤔
Dawg just because you need ChatGPT to understand microstrategy doesn’t mean it’s complicated. Your info is out of date anyways, they abandoned bitcoin yield as a kpi after decreasing it for multiple months in a row. Go look the website. You’re now down to BTC yield of 1.7% on the year, down from a high of 13% on 6/1. This means that if you bought MSTR at any date after that you literally own *less* bitcoin than you did previously lol.
Ehhh I made the mistake of letting "life happen" during the bear market of 2018 only to *still* be clawing my way back to that stack. I sold 2.8 BTC and might not ever reach that amount again. BTC was easy to sell and had high liquidity so I thought it made sense. But I could have easily taken out a loan or LOC or asked family to help -- anything to avoid selling that stack. Anyways, it happened again in 2022 where "life happened" but instead of selling, I found ways to deal with it without selling BTC. Greatest thing I ever did because instead of selling 1.5 BTC, now I have it and continued to stack since then. Low and behold, life happened again during this bear market but I never even once thought of selling. I'll likely never sell again if life goes well -- I can leave that up to my children to decide (but not before I teach them the lesson that life always happens).
Ya im a shit coiner.. uhuh.. ive mined more BTC then most people could even think about, and helped alot of people on a career path along the way.. [BTCMine]( https://imgur.com/a/2N8JEbQ )
People will be saying the same exact thing about BTC at 60k when in 2028 we are trading above 200k. This is literally the last opportunity for regular people to accumulate .1+ BTC if they are at 0. We are getting very close to the point where the masses will be left behind.
24k BTC and 15K eth is very risky portfolio
Me: Sells 10% of my BTC to cover bills on Monday. BTC: Goes up 5% on Wednesday. Typical.
Why are you guys so obsessed with proving BTC is a good investment? Usually people who KNOW something is a good bet, keep quiet.
Imagine looking at the 4 year chart and thinking it makes BTC look like a good investment or currency 😂
|**Metric**|**Bitcoin (BTC)**|**S&P 500 Index (.INX)**| |:-|:-|:-| |**Total 4-Year Return**|**+228.51%**|**+82.48%**| |**Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)**|**34.63%**|**16.23%**| |**Underlying Value Driver**|Speculative sentiment & fixed supply|Corporate earnings & dividends| |**Maximum 4-Year Drawdown**|**\~64%** (2022 Bear Market)|**\~18%** (2022 Bear Market)| Over the last 4 years
Stop worrying about the price. Either price is irrelevant and you believe in BTC or you’re just gambling.
That was good advice at the time because the MNAV was almost 4, but it's terrible advice long term. MSTR will almost certainly outperform bitcoin long term because of the built-in amplification. Basically, as bitcoin goes up in value, the senior claims on the balance sheet (which are in dollars) go down proportionately, which gives common share holders a larger slice of the pie. As they continue selling preferred shares to buy bitcoin, as long as bitcon's CAGR exceeds that of the cost of capital, they will always outperform bitcoin. It's simple math, and demonstrably true. The only possible way that MSTR could not outperform bitcoin is if it's MNAV drops way below 1.0, which never happens in a bull market. And even if that did happen, over enough time, MSTR would still outperform BTC.
BTC nunca se fue... esto es solo movimiento del precio!
The days of 20-30x between cycles are long gone. It's increasingly correlated with the stock market as well as institutional investment has grown. We've been in this 60k channel for 3 months, it's the lowest volatility i've ever seen in BTC
At this point BTC is just speedrunning everyone’s emotions
You’re not stupid 😂 Basically a lot of people bet BTC would go down, price went up instead, and their positions got forced closed. That $1.4B was the market collecting their lunch money
Even better, let’s do 5 years to show everyone can see BTC is negative for half a decade.
This was the largest short liquidation event in BTC history, $1.2BB in an hour. I sold almost all of my short term BTC holdings right at the top because 69000 and 69420 were obvious levels I targeted well ahead of time. That said, I am looking for a 65K breakout level retest for re-entry. It should be the beginning, but remember Mrs Market does the most obvious thing in the least obvious way.
You'd almost have a full BTC if you dump the garbage
Desensitization lol. Plus we know this is going to be around for generations. The next big threat would be quantum computing but hopefully we can quantum proof BTC by then
BTC up 5% "bear market is over" BTC down 5% "i knew it was a scam", "when will BTC go to $1M? I invested $56 and im nervous now"
The same thing that’s making a lot of other assets look strong against the USD. It’s more a product of the dollar weakening than it is BTC strengthening. Bond buy backs are what’s driving all this today
Ooooh poor man! He had yo sell his BTC for huge profits bevause he had to buy a house for his family! Soooo sad! Go to [insert your favourite mythological hell here], you [insert insult here]! PS: Congrats, mate :)
Recommendation - shut the fuck up, don't be a poor winner, buy and hold - shut the fuck up - best revenge is living well - so make your correct calls, ride the BTC wave to the moon, and enjoy your financial freedom - shut the fuck up
You’re also overly excited about potential savings. You’d save $500 on your 0.05 BTC purchase at the “bottom” if it ever comes.
My buddy dumped BTC few days ago, said it's going nowhere per his favorite YouTuber. Felt like a bottom signal
All I did was google BTC and that’s the graph I used, I guess you should take this up with Google themselves for having weak maths skills, they need someone like you on the team
Even if that were true, I’m not convinced the marginal seller is coming from existing spot holders. Most people who were willing to hold through the move down to the 200WMA probably aren’t suddenly going to puke their coins because we’re \~10% above it. They all held from the move back to $82k and down to $58k that happened in May to end of June. More importantly, I think the $58–62K area has become a pretty significant structural demand zone. The last time BTC tested below \~$58K, there was roughly $15B of buying/positioning (not Strategy btw, who was actually selling that same week) that helped absorb the move and keep price from establishing materially below $60K. There are huge buyers just under $60k, and silent ones who don't' want to be known. Retail doesn't have $15B to dump into buying Bitcoin on that candle that reached just below $58k for less than an hour. My guess is that a lot of the capital sitting on the sidelines waiting for October will reassess the risk/reward if BTC is suddenly back in the low $60Ks... especially after seeing it just launch \~10% off the 200WMA. At some point, waiting for the perfect $58K entry starts looking less attractive than aggressively bidding a dip into the lower $60Ks. So I wouldn’t view $58K as some magical line in the sand. I’d view \~$58–62K as a zone where the marginal buyer could become significantly more aggressive. Much more likely this is a structural change in trend. Bitcoin is carving in a higher high on a medium term, and if it can work on $82k by year end that would signal that long trend is also now bullish. Most won't wait till that happens to jump back in. Just some thoughts (not financial advice).
Post about a guy sell 10 BTC for a house he didn't want b/c he starting a family or something like that. The bottom was in right then and there.
you're just moving the BTC into another asset!
😂 I can trim your BTC and make it worth more
All you have to do is look at the BTC-EUR chart to know that you are 1000% wrong lol
Ahhh yes the investment strategy of buy and sell, at ATH, as opposed to buy and hold. You selling out your 401k at ATH in case it goes down? What if it goes up, you’d fumble the bag. It’s easy in hindsight, but I would think most BTC owners are trying to accumulate, not sell off.
Wow and wow, so much anger. If you believe in BTC, then it doesn't matter what it is in USD, a BTC is a BTC. Or are you a speculative investor that have bought on or near the top now hoping for the value to go back so you can make easy money?
If you don't think BTC will be the global currency any soon and 1 BTC will be 1/21 millionth of global wealth, you aren't welcome. Nutter maxis need their safe little echo chamber.
Something I've been monitoring is the number of wallets with 10, 100, 1000, 10000 BTC.. The first 3 are shrinking. The last one is growing (More ETFs coming online), but there are lest OG Whales left to dump any BTC into the pool. This shrinks the availability. Eventually all of coinbase's (the largest holder we know of besides Satoshi) BTC available will dry up. Binance as well. Once those sources start getting scarce we're gonna see some wild price action.
It's called programmable money. They control the price, they control the supply, the burning of tokens, and all that while knowing exactly how many are being created. Unless BTC who is fixed supply and POW that creates the "floor" of the power law we can see in any rainbow chart.. floor is how much does it cost for the miners to mine BTC.. base minimal case, maximum efficiency. Below that level ( 60-63k$) the miners either shut down or if they have load of budget to keep on , they mine but don't sell a single Satoshi under their cost of energy/production. Remember, most of the miners today are OG that knew BTC a while back. Basically they are whale's. 🤷🤣 Of whale's don't sell spot, supply dry up and ask keep the price from going lower. RN, we rely almost entirely on futures and perpetuals to keep pushing down. They , the shorters, have a hard time getting the spot holders to break their convictions and actually sell at some point. That cycle, spot holders are hell more stronger and prepared than the last cycles. My bet is we won't break 50k$ by a lot IF we actually reach it. Main target is 53k$ be warned. Below that, it's fire sale territory.
That's the point of buying BTC you dum dum.
Lol one small pump and this guy crawls out of the shell crater BTC is in to pronounce it's over.
Thank you, not many are aware of the inverse relationship between the US Dollar and it's effect on commodities. When the US Dollar goes down, it takes much more physical dollars to purchase a commodity like BTC or GOLD. When US Dollar goes up, it requires less physical dollars to buy GOLD or BTC. If you're wondering why they're and most commodities are stacked against the US Dollar: The US Dollar is used as the universal baseline for measuring relative strength simply because it sits on **one side of nearly 90% of all foreign exchange transactions globally** **(FOREX).** **Cross-Currency Bridges:** If an institution wants to convert Swiss Francs (CHF) to Japanese Yen (JPY), the transaction is usually cleared by converting CHF --> USD --> JPY in the background because the dollar route has far higher liquidity than a direct CHF/JPY pair.
Who posts this every time there's a small rise or fall in BTC? This CANT be a person.
I do quite literally mean a money printer that big wigs and the powers that be use to devalue the dollar by printing more of it via BTC
I’m buying regardless just like last week, because BTC is a money printer. And if it drops in September I’ll buy then too
This will continue to happen and is why I buy BTC lol
**MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) financial engineering strategy is a sophisticated, highly aggressive corporate finance model. At its core, it transforms an operating enterprise software business into a leveraged Bitcoin holding and development vehicle.** **Is it complex? Yes and no.** **The fundamental concept is remarkably simple—borrow cheap money or issue stock to buy an appreciating asset. However, the execution, mechanics, and market dynamics are deeply complex, sitting at the intersection of corporate debt markets, equity derivatives, convertible bond arbitrage, and crypto-asset volatility.** **## The Core Mechanics: The Capital Markets Flywheel** **MicroStrategy operates a self-reinforcing financial loop designed to continuously accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) while increasing the amount of Bitcoin backing each share (a metric they term "Bitcoin Yield").** **Convertible Senior Notes: MSTR routinely issues large tranches of zero-coupon or low-coupon convertible bonds (often maturing in 5 to 7 years). These bonds offer investors downside protection as debt, combined with equity upside if MSTR stock outperforms. Because institutional demand for crypto-linked yield is high, MSTR has been able to borrow at very low or even zero nominal interest rates.** **At-The-Market (ATM) Equity Offerings: When MSTR stock trades at a significant premium to the net asset value (NAV) of the Bitcoin it holds, the company issues and sells new common stock into the open market.** **Asset Deployment: The cash raised from both debt and equity offerings is immediately swept onto the balance sheet to purchase spot Bitcoin.** **The Accretion Loop: Because new shares are issued at a price higher than the actual value of the underlying Bitcoin per share, the transaction is "accretive" to existing shareholders on a per-share Bitcoin basis. This theoretically drives up the intrinsic value per share, supporting the stock price and enabling the next capital raise.** **## Why the Strategy Is Complex** **While retail investors often view MSTR simply as "Bitcoin with leverage," the financial architecture behind it involves several layers of institutional complexity:** **1. The Convertible Arbitrage Ecosystem** **A massive driver of MSTR's liquidity comes from institutional hedge funds engaging in convertible arbitrage. When MSTR issues convertible notes, hedge funds buy the bonds and simultaneously short the common stock to lock in risk-free or high-yielding spreads based on the bond's embedded equity options and high implied volatility. Managing this relationship requires constant calibration of debt covenants, conversion prices, and stock liquidity.** **2. Premium to NAV Valuation Puzzle** **Valuing MSTR is notoriously difficult because traditional valuation metrics break down.** **You are combining:** **A legacy software business with modest, steady cash flows.** **A massive, volatile treasury of digital assets.** **An active capital-raising machine that dilutes equity holders while simultaneously increasing total Bitcoin per share.** **The stock frequently trades at a substantial premium to the net asset value of its Bitcoin. Understanding** ***why*** **that premium expands or contracts requires modeling market psychology, liquidity flows, and institutional access constraints (e.g., why some funds buy MSTR instead of spot ETFs).** **3. Reflexivity and Non-Linear Feedback Loops** **Popularized by George Soros, reflexivity describes situations where rising prices create fundamentals that drive prices even higher—and vice versa.** **On the upside: A rising Bitcoin price lifts MSTR stock, increases the NAV premium, allows cheaper capital raises, and fuels more Bitcoin buying.** ** ** **On the downside: If Bitcoin crashes and the stock's premium evaporates, the equity ATM mechanism closes. If the stock falls far enough, convertible holders may demand cash redemption rather than conversion, testing the company's liquidity buffers.** **## Summary of Risks** **The structural brilliance of the model in a bull market becomes its primary vulnerability in a severe, prolonged crypto bear market.** **Fixed Debt Obligations: Convertible notes carry maturity dates. If Bitcoin suffers a multi-year drawdown and the stock languishes below conversion prices, refinancing that debt or meeting obligations without liquidating Bitcoin becomes a major stress test.** **Dilution Risk: Continuous equity issuance increases share count. If the Bitcoin-per-share accretion stalls out, equity holders bear the brunt of dilution without the corresponding asset growth.** **Ultimately, MSTR has effectively weaponized traditional debt and equity capital markets to create a corporate proxy for Bitcoin, pioneering a playbook that other firms are now attempting to replicate.**
BTC didn't go up. The Dollar went down.
I have an even simpler thesis that’s pretty much in line with yours BTC is a money printer Why does Trump or big wigs or whomever care about inflating the dollar when they cash out many more dollars? They just use it to pump the country or whomevers bags and then rinse and repeat. They don’t care that you can’t get a McDouble for $1 anymore they have $3 printed from BTC. This is why I feel we will hit 1m in a decade ish. But folks don’t seem to realize that 1m will have a lot less buying power than today
That explains why. I was hoping to get more BTC
Take a look at S&P Now take a look at BTC Who is back?
LTC/BTC just hit a new all time low.
1 BTC still 1 BTC, and adoption still ahead.