BTC

Snackyums

Why does everyone ignore that for the extra 30% return over large cap stock, investors need to take on 300% more volatility? 10% BTC vs. 7.5% large cap. Risk doesn’t seem to make up for the return

devCheckingIn

10.2K BTC inflows so far this week 🤩

Queasy-Ride4291

Who wants to tell him that BTC hasn’t even beat inflation in half a decade? 

Recordeal7

As a business owner, every time someone asks me to explain bitcoin to them (usually another business owner), I use the “send money halfway around the world” example. And…how when you send it using a bank, it takes 3-4 days, and sometimes the receiving bank holds it even longer, and then the currency values change, then the bank charges you $25-75 to send it, then the exchange rate has another 5-8% fee tacked on…and so it takes almost a week and several hundred dollars to do it. Or…you can send BTC for a couple bucks and it’s delivered to the recipient in seconds. That’s when they almost always say, “wow…why hasn’t anyone ever explained it like that before?” And if they are still anti-crypto, they always say, “well…if you mess up the address, you loose all your money.” At that point I know nothing will change their mind and I drop the discussion.

lobhater

I was mining Bitcoin back when you could do it on GPUs, actually mined a block myself with my dining room full of GPUs. Discovered silk road. Pawned everything including my laptop which had my BTC wallet on it. Properly a dozen Bitcoin but wasn't worth much. Never got it back. It was encrypted so the best they could do was format the laptop

kallaloostx

More kids in Africa own and understand BTC than those in the U.S. https://youtu.be/l4mUySspn1E?si=3OlWBGs_aEgETli5

PeopleNose

Down with Musk Up with BTC

sandee_eggo

The "article" says nothing about WHY JPM thinks BTC will appreciate 10%.

Working_Salt_Mine

Inveterate gamblers love volatility. Not everyone wants that. Many of us with families, who prefer stable, long-term growth, view other asset classes as more stable than BTC. It’s okay to want some Vegas in your life; we all do, but with house money, it’s VTI and chill.

sandee_eggo

And if JPM was so wrong about BTC before, why should people trust them now? That's a bad track record.

plop

Your post will make BTC go down, you ruined it

FitCompetition1804

If you think Clarity passing was going to make Bitcoin holders rich you are clueless. There are far more impactful macro factors than Clarity. Clarity would have had very little impact on BTC if it passed.

onlyrelevantlyrics

Right around the end of 2011 I was paid for a freelance gig with both cash and 330BTC (was about $1200 iirc). The wallet file was saved to a thumb drive that I have since lost (likely 2012). The best part is that there's a more than 0% chance I still have it somewhere, I just have absolutely no idea where to look and don't want to invite the inevitable insanity. I do however know exactly what it looks like: a silver, WIRED branded deal with the swivel out thing like a ledger.

JustFunj

The true path is to dabble on 3 of them and if you can all 4. BTC + ETF + a business or “passive income” (which is a lie, there’s no thing as passive income you have to manage your drop shipping or your Airbnb. Source I have a Airbnb)

b1mm3rl1f3

Bearish on crypto but formally modelled BTC outperforming traditional asset classes over the next decade. Even the 10% CAGR is too bearish but the fact that its coming from JPM is insane

Longjumping-Dog-6852

\- I am very sceptical about fiat money and major governments throughout the world are saddled with insane amounts of debt. I am quite certain the money printers are going to go into overtime the next 5-10 years \- I read the book Broken Money and I found it really interesting. It really explains the history of money, why humans need currency to represent a store of favours and what makes a reliable currency. Bitcoin ticks a lot of the boxes which I find very interesting I am middle aged and I am taking my money seriously nowadays; I want to stop working ASAP as possible and have spent a good chunk of time the past few years looking at what I can invest in to help me stop working sooner rather than later. I've decided to invest in a few things and BTC is one of these things.

13Angelcorpse6

I just want somewhere to live, transport and food to eat. Going forward holding a fraction of a BTC might help me out with that.

__Ken_Adams__

>The value of bitcoin is in USD. This statement demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of what value is. Maybe don't make declarative statements about things you're ignorant about. Just because bitcoin can be *exchanged for* USD* does not mean USD gives BTC its value or that its value *is in USD*. The exchange rate is just a way to measure purchasing power. Learn how money works before continuing to embarrass yourself.

mrjune2040

BTC has many currency pairs, just think how absurd it would be to use an analogous example of an AUD/USD order book. Is my AUD worthless too? And how about your house- you want to gift it to me too? Because right now it’s just sitting there and worthless unless the marketplace decides otherwise in the context of a purchase transaction. Otherwise it’s all hypothetical. Same goes for any other asset class.

Zapitnow

BTC..come on down The Price Is Right!!

lihao2021

I’m in the same boat as you—except I sold my property in Shanghai. The Chinese economy is collapsing severely; housing prices in Shanghai have plummeted by 50% over the last two years. I have to go all-in on BTC; it’s the only way I might be able to recover all my losses!

Big80sweens

At this point I agree, stocks are at ATHs and BTC still dipping. Simply returning to the mean would justify this prediction

Relevant_Action_8871

Why wouldn’t you want volatility? Just buy the dip and be patient. Put the money you don’t need to live in BTC and enjoy. No other asset es as volatile and at the same time “safe” than BTC

mxm_joy

This could become the world's first bitcoin pilgrimage! I did the Camino del norte for example. Now imagine you could walk/cycle the whole trail with hotels/hostels accepting BTC as payment. Could be cool!

manuel_794629

Correlation alone doesn't show Wall Street controls it; stocks and BTC can move together because both respond to liquidity and risk appetite. The real test is whether that link persists when market conditions change.

KinderCountry

Did they launch a BTC etf or something

PeopleNose

BTC will mathematically* always go up, how fast it goes up is where everyone's placing their bets... *^(on average over time)

Magjee

It was 2017 when the transaction cost exploded on BTC It seems crazy it was more reasonable to perform a small transaction via BTC a decade ago and it has only added more roadblocks since   Jeez, the first BTC transaction was for pizza in 2010. The type of regular everyday easy stuff you would need a currency to perform

PeopleNose

BTC's broad adoption is important for longevity and health More people = more better

PeopleNose

No, BTC is a mathematical trust Banks are just noticing the writing* on the wall... ^(equations... there are equations for this)

Front_Statistician38

THIS---anyone who is in BTC or crypto for real understands the rabbit hole you go through, even being here nearly for 10 years I still learn all the the time

PrintDoErro

Tou até wrong. BTC today (Oct 21, 2026): $84,520.55 BTC on Oct 21, 2021: $62,210.17 Cumulative US inflation (Oct 2021–Sep 2026): 21.82% BTC nominal gain: 35.86% Real purchasing power gain: +11.5% Sources: Yahoo Finance, CoinMarketCap and BLS.

flannel_jackson

Which is why I’m sure all of them own BTC instead of gold, stocks, and cash… Lol

throwaway12three4

Yea. Strategy, Metaplanet, strive, all IOUs. I have enough coin to warrant paying someone to manage my keys. I still have my BTC address and can withdraw with the click of a button. And oh, they have proven their reserves that cover all coins in custody. I guess those are IOUs as well.

Honu_Daze

This just in: JP Morgan is bullish on BTC - placed in the #1 spot on their 2027 10-yr forecast of top assets. Let that sink in. From deniers to maximists. Just 2 decades prior, the CEO claimed that BTC was fraud & would fire any employee who had a stake in BTC.

Secret_Operative

My model is that if I ever need funds that require selling BTC, that's when I'll start selling BTC. So far I haven't needed it, and it's looking good for the foreseeable future.

OkOutlandishness2305

Starting to think these posts are pure engagement-bait. surely no one really gives a shit if BTC moves 0.5% in a day?

TheresNoSecondBest

No catch, pure charity. I used this to get my first 100 BTC. 5 star service/s

2xfun

When big players leave BTC mining the hash rate will go down and mining because profitable for smaller players 

3zprK

Theoretically. But the fact of the matter is that those massive mining pools are worth tens and hundreds of millions of fiat dollars. I personally haven't seen a single bitcoiner who has contributed to the Blockchain by connecting a GPU 24/7. All they want is forever growing numbers. BTC has logarithmic growth with diminishing returns each cycle; when it finds the ceiling it'll just hang around it.

Abject-Stretch-1187

223k in 2037 isn't realistic, it is simply overly bearish. BTC won't grow at 10% considering actual inflation rate is btw 7-10% yoy and not nominally. Plus last cycle at an obscene level of selling above 100k according to on-chain metrics.

ShlimmyWhimmy

I definitely agree it will still grow, but its best now to keep a balance instead of betting it all on BTC maybe. Idk about a 100x in 10 years but 10x is still very do able and 5k-50k is still a good return for it essentially doing "nothing"

Over_Trip3048

thank you!! some ppl post here i’m too old for BTC. I’m sorry for them

Asyncrosaurus

>BTC chart analysis Astrology for men.

Rodrigosofly

Not all bitcoin miners will pivot to AI or just being data centers. For example American Bitcoin Corp, has no intention to pivot and plans to stay Bitcoin focused meanwhile others pivot. If that happens, less miners will compete for rewards and more rewards will be given to those miners. Yes miners are needed to maintain but many miners aren’t needed. Usually people tend to dissociate themselves from mining when prices fall, and they tend to pivot back when the prices of BTC are near all time highs. It sort of works like the idea of Investor Psychology/sentiment does but in that case it would be due to costs of maintaining and mining. All due to the fluctuations of Bitcoin prices and energy costs.

HSuke

Then the existing pool of miners decreases and the difficulty adjusts to be easier, which attracts more miners up until the security budget. However, the security budget has always halved every cycle in proportion to the value of BTC being protected. There are 2 components to the security budget: 1. Energy cost 2. Mining equipment cost While the energy cost stays relatively same in the short term due to difficulty adjustments, the mining equipment cost keeps decreasing. Currently, it takes about only $5B worth of mining equipment to successful 51% attack Bitcoin, a $1T network. That's like protecting Fort Worth gold with mall security cops. This is why Proof of Work is relatively insecure to PoS, PoA, and BFT variations.

ilovesaintpaul

Truisms in life: death, taxes, and BTC chart analysis. Everyday. Forever.

Next-Succotash-3827

I have no idea what to do with my BTC holdings. I've been buying since 2018 and have it in cold storage and on exchanges Like Coinbase and Kraken. I'll eventually cash out but the price point is not where Id like it to be for selling. We'll see. 250K Im selling a small amount, though. LoL.

tres_pares

hmm.. you need to 6x the market cap of gold right now for bitcoin to reach 100x. what I think is possible in my lifetime (29 now) is that BTC will reach the market cap of GOLD right now, which is $28.91 trillion - that's around 17x for BTC i think that can happen in 20-30 years from now. Based on institutional forecasts, but based on the history of Bitcoin, it can reach that high in 15-25 years from now. if you wanna hold for long term and you think you can wait for 20+ years to get that 10-17x then keep accumulating.

IntoTheMist_9

8m usd for one BTC is impossible in the next fifty years? You.. Like this is just something you know?

Abject-Stretch-1187

That's fair however I don't agree that the current optimism around the bear being over isn't justified considering where we currently are relative to other cycles. If there is a different variable(ETFs, general institutional acceptance) relative to all other cycles then it makes sense why this current bear looks the way it is because if ETFs can't help reduce downside volatility then I don't think there would be anything else that would thus rendering BTC as just some tradable/predictable asset every 4yrs. People who are overly cautious are perhaps hiding their desire to want this cycle to play out the exact same as previous ones and it makes no sense not just because it is wishful thinking but because it is not rational.

Ok-Influence-7326

Without early adopters willing to take a mega risk, BTC wouldn’t be where it is today.

Esoldier22

This was part of my reason for fully liquidating. BTC may have another 100x left but it might not. I think there is still room to grow and it is worthwhile investing for a balanced portfolio.

ClickApprehensive191

I wish I had friends like that. Unfortunately I have been that friend, but not until BTC hit $65k

RubiCrawler

Sell, get rid of the debt, get your finances back under control and DCA a small bit then buy bigger chunks when you can and you’ll be back in a good portfolio soon. Maybe not 2BTC but who knows one day you’ll be back to 2 if you really want it

ShlimmyWhimmy

This is why I debate if its even worth getting in on BTC or other cryptos now or not... BTC is so expensive that even if I put say 5k in now, and BTC doubles or triples in the next 10 years, I'd still make a decent profit but not like this... But with how BTC has been could it still 100x yet again in the next 10 years? Better to be in now then later but when you dont have that kind of cash to throw around atm its hard to figure if its worth or not...

xXMrGoodKat

Personally, I think we're looking at the early stages of a much bigger transformation of the global financial system. Since around 2019, I've noticed how governments, institutions, and investors have gradually been testing, regulating, and integrating digital assets into traditional finance. My theory is that we'll eventually have a diversified digital monetary system consisting of stablecoins, tokens, and different blockchain networks, but with Bitcoin potentially playing the role gold once did as a major reserve asset. Look at what's happening already. PayPal has PYUSD, Amazon and Walmart have explored stablecoins, and financial institutions are increasingly moving toward tokenization. To me, these are signs of where the financial system could be heading. I can imagine a future where major corporations, banks, and governments hold substantial amounts of BTC as reserves or collateral, while ordinary people primarily transact through stablecoins and other digital financial networks. In that scenario, Bitcoin wouldn't need to be used for everyday purchases to justify its value, just as gold doesn't need to be used to buy groceries. Of course, none of this guarantees Bitcoin will become the foundation of that system. But I believe we're watching the financial infrastructure being built and tested in real time, and BTC could eventually become one of its most important assets.

Financial_Ad_2849

This is actually very much how you should interpret news these days. Do the opposite of what they are insinuating. Because if they really believed BTC would do so well why give that crucial info away for free? Disclaimer: I am not criticising BTC I just feel people should be careful with news like this

Ok_Earth_9634

Stablecoins seem much more practical for everyday spending than BTC, especially with the price volatility and transaction fees.

xsake1001

He didn’t forget to buy a chair. He’s just refusing to sell his BTC to afford one.

Darkpriest667

I did the calculations for us.. It would be extremely difficult for them to do that -- mainly because 66% of BTC is held by individuals in their own wallets [https://imgur.com/a/zsxG7zm](https://imgur.com/a/zsxG7zm)

Michaelreidhooper

I took my wife to Venice Beach, Nantucket and Vieques, Puerto Rico, all on the profits of crypto. I also bought a water heater installed $900 with profits from bitcoin. The plumber didn’t want the money in BTC so I cashed out and paid him in US dollars.

xXMrGoodKat

I've known about BTC since its early days around 2009, when people were mining it on their PCs. I found it interesting but never took it seriously because it was mostly used in the dark web and how difficult it was to convert to USD. Around 2018, I started finding articles about it and i could see its potential, but what really convinced me was in 2019 when the IRS expanded its crypto tax guidance. That was a huge green flag for me. I figured if the government was taking it seriously enough to regulate and tax it, BTC wasn't going away anytime soon. Then came institutional adoption and eventually the SEC approving spot Bitcoin ETFs. And here we are today.

jawni

>So would you give up shareholder rights for 24/7 trading? Or would you rather own traditional shares? What shareholder rights does the average shareholder actually invoke? I certainly have never exercised any of those "rights" but I sure as hell have wanted to trade outside of the trading hours. As long as I trust the custodian, it's an obvious choice. It's the same with any token, not just tokenized equities. Do I need to hold my BTC on chain when it gets 0 yield? No, I might as well hold it in a custodial wallet or through an ETF. Do I need to hold my SOL on chain? Well that actually makes sense, because I can get yield, I can use it in defi, etc. Most people in this sub are idealistic idiots, who don't really think pragmatically, but rather they project an ideal and then reject anything that doesn't live up to it. So just because it may not have the shareholder rights they have literally never once even considered using, they'll miss out entirely.

bobbyv137

1 x BTC today has less purchasing power than 1 x BTC 5 years ago. Pretty lame Yes, I am 'cheery picking' my dates, as I am obviously aware it went from $15k to $124k during that period. But, the fact is, $83k in October 2026 is pathetic considering it was $65k in April 2021.

Blade_Runner_69

If you don't hold your coins all you hold is IOU's. I would never trust big corporations, especially scumbag financial corporations. I wish you luck though mate, but I'm a BTC purist and have been for over a decade. Not your keys not your bitcoin.

Bakkus1987

Mf'er, who cares about that shit if you have BTC. Imagine cycling into a bank stock like a lose 😂.

Morkyfrom0rky

Yes, thank you. I have decided to go this route. I bought BTC back when it was $900/coin so I don't have an issue using some to buy something that will make my work much easier

mitchare

Compare the final BTC amount after spreads and withdrawal fees, not just the advertised rate. changenow can be convenient for quick swaps, but I’d still test with a small amount first. Whatever exchange you choose, withdraw to a hardware wallet and verify the address yourself. Not your keys, not your coins.

sahmed5898

The poster itself doesn't prove the person holds any BTC; the real risk is if it links the pitch to a name, home, or routine.

defacer91

Crazy to enter seed phrase anywhere other than the device itself. Why are these people even buying BTC in the first place when they give it away by stupidity or lazyness?

Blockchainauditor

1) Are we forgetting the breach involving Trezor’s shipping provider in August? 2) If we have no business owners, isn’t that a big problem? 3) If our life goal should be to HODL BTC, how does ANYTHING get done? Where does the electricity to run the PC come from?

fleshN2gear

ambushed by people who didnt even want to imagine the benefits of a decentralized, anoymous mainnet with a solana side issuance that allows the privacy coin to become tradeable because otherwise most CEXs and DEXs dont accept privacy coins for trade. But, they do allow wrapped privacy coins or 1:1 issued tokens that already have the infrastructure built to become stakable, and used for arbitrage profiting by day traders. which will keep the two coins closer in price than hey otherwise would be. No to mention the propsed future developments like **ull-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++):** Upgrades the anonymity set from 16 to the entire blockchain history. **Benefit:** Renders statistical deanonymization and chain-analysis attacks computationally infeasible while optimizing proof sizes for faster node verification. **Seraphis and Jamtis Protocols:** A next-generation transaction protocol restructuring how view keys operate. **Benefit:** Significantly improves the security and usability of multi-signature (multisig) wallets, light-wallet servers, and subaddresses. **Decoy Selection Upgrades (OSPEAD):** A mathematical framework to optimize decoy outputs. **Benefit:** Counters sophisticated analysis firms by ensuring the algorithm picks decoy outputs that perfectly mimic the spending habits of real users, preventing timing or clustering heuristics. **Native Atomic Swaps:** Trustless cross-chain exchange protocols built directly into the desktop wallet. **Benefit:** Bypasses centralized exchange delistings and KYC requirements, providing censorship-resistant liquidity and decentralized fiat off-ramps (e.g., swapping native FRG for BTC or ETH). **Rust Node Migration:** Rebuilding the C++ daemon into a modular, memory-safe Rust architecture (similar to Cuprate). **Benefit:** Eliminates C++ memory vulnerability risks, modernizes the codebase to attract new developers, and simplifies native integrations with the Solana Token-2022 Oracle bot and other Web3 infrastructure. I had roadmapped to eventually provide multilayer functionality, eventually culminating with cell data aggregation by individuals cellphones. the phone does the aggregation and they are give rewards for ProofusefulWOrk, incentivizing their continuing use of the collectiong app. while the data is sent back to the main network servers which are rewarding people for storage capacity, as thats where the data will be encrpted and stored so that the data can be commercially packaged and sold to various companies looking for GPS data, Cell Service Data, Acellerometer and Gyroscopic data. The they can use to calcualte cell outage areas, poor road conditions across fast distances, areas of roadway where people drive erratically etc. All datat points that can be used by government agencies and private coorproations to efficiently fix roads, service areas, map out lanscapes in 3D for developers etc. I dont understand how you guys can consider this just another pointless project... im not trying to keep ledgers of transactions. im trying to facilitate the safe transfer of data and commercialize it while also providing decentralized and anonymous monetary transactions, facilitate staking and guaranteed returns. all on the same network. yall seem to be under the impression i hobbled together an idea to try and print money. which is incredibly insulting

Abject-Stretch-1187

So you’re selectively using 2022 to make your argument when we’ve had other bear markets? This isn’t wise as you’re not being objective. If you look at any of the bear markets in BTC history, a year into any of those bear markets, we were already more than 50% below in price compared to those cycle. I believe lot of folks are still in the disbelief stage. They keep pushing the bottom into the next month hoping it will be like previous bear markets. Good luck.

Elmer-Shutara

The price gets people interested, but learning about fixed supply and self-custody is what makes BTC different from just another thing on a chart.

Competitive_Milk_638

Money didn't burn, BTC burned. The owner could have sold that BTC for money, but instead everyone else's BTC is now worth slightly more.

ChomsGP

you are comparing it to fiat, specifically USD, what you said implies inflation does no exist for a hundred years and/or that BTC will not appreciate anymore when it gets to that number, just because is a round number, which honestly makes no sense because it won't be 0.01€ or 0.01£ or 0.01¥

TheRadishBros

People underestimate the role of “Satoshi” as an almost mythological figure behind BTC’s development, as opposed to every other token that has, or can ever, exist. As we don’t know who created it, and a couple of the leading candidates have since passed away, that ensures no matter how high the BTC price goes, it’s not being seen as enriching some shady group of developers.

Johan_Laracoding

Only after I had built up a portfolio of other investments I bought some BTC. I will likely never put more then 10-15% of my total investment into it. I won't trade either, just hold. For me it is a store of value with big potential. I don't intend to actually use it as a currency. I still consider it my riskiest asset and am not sure if this is what you even mean by being convinced. Yet I did buy and occasionally add some.

lobhater

If you have a meaningful amount of money in BTC I would strongly urge you to setup multi-sig. I use trezor devices personally but I just bought another device from a different vendor to add to my 3-5 multi-sig setup. That way even if any 1 vendor or even 2 is fully hacked I can't lose my money. It would be impossible for someone to steal my money unless they physically robbed me and tortured me to get the passphrases. There is no known way for my BTC coin to be stolen remotely. It is a life changing amount of money for me so it's worth it

tenor_tymir

Trezor didn’t have a direct hack yet, so it’s all good - so far. Just don’t be stupid. Don’t google the Trezor website only to land on a sponsored fake site and type in your seed phrases like a total knob. If you’re knowledgeable enough, roll your own seed phrase and if you’re feeling extra confident in your abilities, slap a long-ass passphrase on top. Keep your device up to date through official channels and silently stack BTC and don’t answer to any direct messages anywhere, not here, not on Telegram, Signal, Whatsapp or what have you. Blend in and disappear in the crowd.

Huge_Position890

Thanks, these were exactly the right checks, so I ran all of them on both periods (2022–26, where I found it, and the held-out 2019–21). The rules and both of our guesses were written down first. **1. Coin-specific = residual after the coin's beta to BTC.** My original split already removed a market factor (equal-weighted market beta plus size, volatility and momentum). Re-defining it as the residual after a 90-day BTC beta (frozen each month) doesn't weaken anything. The drop-continues coefficient goes from +0.23 to +0.25 (t 8.7) in 2022–26, and from +0.13 to +0.24 (t 3.0) in 2019–21. **2. Matched comparison.** Each day, coins in the bottom 10% of coin-specific moves, compared with coins from the same day, the same liquidity tercile *and* the same volatility tercile, whose residual was in the middle 30–70%. I added volatility to the match because big droppers are mechanically more volatile. |next 7 days vs matched coins|2022–26|2019–21| |:-|:-|:-| |after a coin-specific drop: mean|−0.72% (t −6.7)|−0.84% (t −2.8)| |hit rate (lagged the matches)|57.9% (CI 57.1–58.8)|58.8% (CI 56.9–60.5)| |5th percentile, event minus controls|−7.3 pts|−7.5 pts| |after a coin-specific pump: mean|−1.60% (t −12.6)|−1.87% (t −4.7)| **3. Survivorship.** You were right. My universe includes delisted coins. Restricting to coins still trading today makes the effect smaller. In 2019–21 the drop side falls from t 3.0 to 1.95, and the pump side from −3.8 to −1.4. Excluding the dead coins would have understated it. **4. The left tail.** It is fatter after drops, but it's even fatter after *pumps* (−10.7 and −12.2 pts at the 5th percentile). So the fat left tail isn't specific to drops. It looks more like "coins that just made a big idiosyncratic move keep a fatter forward tail" than a forced-selling cascade after drops. That doesn't rule out your perp-funding mechanism, but this data doesn't single it out.

Huge_Position890

Thanks, these were exactly the right checks, so I ran all of them on both periods (2022–26, where I found it, and the held-out 2019–21). The rules and both of our guesses were written down first. **1. Coin-specific = residual after the coin's beta to BTC.** My original split already removed a market factor (equal-weighted market beta plus size, volatility and momentum). Re-defining it as the residual after a 90-day BTC beta (frozen each month) doesn't weaken anything. The drop-continues coefficient goes from +0.23 to +0.25 (t 8.7) in 2022–26, and from +0.13 to +0.24 (t 3.0) in 2019–21. **2. Matched comparison.** Each day, coins in the bottom 10% of coin-specific moves, compared with coins from the same day, the same liquidity tercile *and* the same volatility tercile, whose residual was in the middle 30–70%. I added volatility to the match because big droppers are mechanically more volatile. | next 7 days vs matched coins | 2022–26 | 2019–21 | |---|---|---| | after a coin-specific drop: mean | −0.72% (t −6.7) | −0.84% (t −2.8) | | hit rate (lagged the matches) | 57.9% (CI 57.1–58.8) | 58.8% (CI 56.9–60.5) | | 5th percentile, event minus controls | −7.3 pts | −7.5 pts | | after a coin-specific pump: mean | −1.60% (t −12.6) | −1.87% (t −4.7) | **3. Survivorship.** You were right. My universe includes delisted coins. Restricting to coins still trading today makes the effect smaller. In 2019–21 the drop side falls from t 3.0 to 1.95, and the pump side from −3.8 to −1.4. Excluding the dead coins would have understated it. **4. The left tail.** It is fatter after drops, but it's even fatter after *pumps* (−10.7 and −12.2 pts at the 5th percentile). So the fat left tail isn't specific to drops. It looks more like "coins that just made a big idiosyncratic move keep a fatter forward tail" than a forced-selling cascade after drops. That doesn't rule out your perp-funding mechanism, but this data doesn't single it out.

Several_Razzmatazz71

so what? It's not how long the exchange market is open that is vital, it's LIQUIDITY, you trying to compare BTC To the BOND or STOCK MARKET, is a red herring.

Huge_Position890

All fair points, so I ran the two I hadn't done. As before, the rules and my guesses were written down first. **1. Counterfactual.** Done in the reply above. Seven coins with no ETF at the time thinned too, and so did their BTC-independent part. ETH's own ETF date added nothing, and placebo dates show "breaks" as well. So it's a regime change, not an ETF effect. **2. Robust scale.** I re-counted without GARCH, scaling each hour two ways: by trailing 7-day realized vol, and by a 30-day median absolute deviation. |per 30 days, before → after Jan 2024|trailing 7d vol|30d MAD| |:-|:-|:-| |hours beyond 4σ|6.3 → 5.2 (ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.71–0.99)|23.2 → 15.3 (0.66, 0.50–0.89)| |hours beyond 6σ|2.1 → 1.2|9.0 → 4.4| |Hill α|2.31 → 2.66 (+0.34, CI +0.20 to +0.49)|2.10 → 2.49 (+0.39, CI +0.20 to +0.55)| The thinning survives. But you're right that the size depends on the estimator: GARCH gave \~1.7x fewer 4σ hours and \~2.8x fewer 6σ hours, and robust scales give roughly 1.2–1.5x and 1.7–2x. I'd quote it as a range. **3. Bai–Perron.** I ran a mean-shift model on the monthly rate of 4σ hours, allowing up to 5 breaks with 15% trimming and choosing the number by BIC. BIC picks **zero** breaks for BTC under both scales and for the control average. If I force a single break anyway, it lands in Dec 2020 under MAD scaling, Sep 2023 under trailing vol, and Jul 2021 for the controls. None of those is significant (sup-F 2–7) and none is at the launch. By your criterion the ETF story weakens. The before/after difference is real, but it looks like a slow drift or regime, not a step on an ETF date. **4. Drying volume.** Agreed on direction: no tilt. One nuance from my data: it didn't widen the next move either. The next day was narrower in absolute terms (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%) and no different relative to current volatility. In my sample it's a state that mostly says "it's quiet."

Huge_Position890

All fair points, so I ran the two I hadn't done. As before, the rules and my guesses were written down first. **1. Counterfactual.** Done in the reply above. Seven coins with no ETF at the time thinned too, and so did their BTC-independent part. ETH's own ETF date added nothing, and placebo dates show "breaks" as well. So it's a regime change, not an ETF effect. **2. Robust scale.** I re-counted without GARCH, scaling each hour two ways: by trailing 7-day realized vol, and by a 30-day median absolute deviation. |per 30 days, before → after Jan 2024|trailing 7d vol|30d MAD| |:-|:-|:-| |hours beyond 4σ|6.3 → 5.2 (ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.71–0.99)|23.2 → 15.3 (0.66, 0.50–0.89)| |hours beyond 6σ|2.1 → 1.2|9.0 → 4.4| |Hill α|2.31 → 2.66 (+0.34, CI +0.20 to +0.49)|2.10 → 2.49 (+0.39, CI +0.20 to +0.55)| The thinning survives. But you're right that the size depends on the estimator: GARCH gave \~1.7x fewer 4σ hours and \~2.8x fewer 6σ hours, and robust scales give roughly 1.2–1.5x and 1.7–2x. I'd quote it as a range. **3. Bai–Perron.** I ran a mean-shift model on the monthly rate of 4σ hours, allowing up to 5 breaks with 15% trimming and choosing the number by BIC. BIC picks **zero** breaks for BTC under both scales and for the control average. If I force a single break anyway, it lands in Dec 2020 under MAD scaling, Sep 2023 under trailing vol, and Jul 2021 for the controls. None of those is significant (sup-F 2–7) and none is at the launch. By your criterion the ETF story weakens. The before/after difference is real, but it looks like a slow drift or regime, not a step on an ETF date. **4. Drying volume.** Agreed on direction: no tilt. One nuance from my data: it didn't widen the next move either. The next day was narrower in absolute terms (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%) and no different relative to current volatility. In my sample it's a state that mostly says "it's quiet."

Several_Razzmatazz71

let me get this straight you are worried about money laundering, and you bring up that as some pro about BTC?

Fer_Cypherpunk-_-

Es que no entiendes Bitcoin. Estás ahí porque quieres dinero ya ya ya. Bitcoin es una forma de cuidar parte de tu patrimonio a largo plazo. Bitcoin es escaso y en menos de 6 años tendremos el 6to Halving donde la recompensa de minería será menor a 0.8BTC

Ok_Improvement8487

I just threw some money in BTC for fun and holding it, but when you look at all the posts it's all about holding. There needs to be more emphasis on using it, or getting the system to that point, if people want the value to actually increase substantially.

UtahImTaller

I remember back in the day I told my friend I turned 5k into 20k. That was during the peak of a bull season. He put a few hundred in and the market corrected. He's very skeptical of BTC or Crypto and I imagine most people see the people making money as magic people who must know something they don't.  Truth is we just bought in months or years ago when nobody besides the community is talking about it.

TheDTYP

Yeah. Spot crypto and prediction markets are separate. On my side prediction markets have been $0 commission lately (the exchange still charges per contract), and spot crypto is $0 commission too but there's a trading fee. I didn't do prediction markets before. Saw moomoo roll it out and grabbed a few BTC upside contracts. Kind of fun, made a little.

Awkward_Priority5794

The main reason of me liquidating BTC is the price behaviour and return mimic a x2 leveraged play on Russell 3000 and Nasdaq .

Awkward_Priority5794

I liquidated all my BTC and went into memory stocks last year and made 250%. Now the hottest stock is LLY and waiting for mkt crash to load .

Mysterious_Brief3175

My grandmother /grandfather wanted to buy BTC in 2006 and their financial advisor said don’t buy it. My grandfather was prepared to spend 60k in 06…… wtf financial advisor

CoinEditionIndonesia

I think a lot of people initially discover Bitcoin because of its price potential, but what makes it interesting beyond speculation is the technology behind it.. The fixed supply, self-custody, and ability to trnsfer value without relying on traditional intermediaries are pretty compelling once you understand how they work. Curious how many people here bought their first BTC for the potential gains but ended up staying because of the fundamentals.

GalaxyDefender1x

I realized stupid people rule the world, and they believe Bitcoin has value. You're always told, "Never argue with stupid people." So I started buying BTC. Now I need more stupid people to buy BTC so the price can go up, because so far, I've only lost money on it.

Salty-Technician-633

The French government seeing you swap BTC to USDC: "Is that the sweet scent of taxable revenue I smell?

RealEbb6223

Spending BTC on coffee and then having to think about cost basis and taxes is ridiculous. Give me stablecoins for payments and BTC for holding

TheCurlyHomeCook

To help me understand - is this showing the value of these assets in BTC over time? As in how much they were worth in BTC?

shpeucher

At 1M it’s penny sat ($0.01/sat) At that moment it will start being referenced in SAT price. The news will show the ticker as SAT instead of BTC. It will be $0.01 for the next hundred years or whatever, and that’s when the world will recognize the price as finally stable instead of how volatile it is now