BTC

matthegc

Anti BTC and Saylor people show once again why they don’t understand BTC or just basic math.

Hail_the_Yale

Damn, good thing USD has better security than BTC to not be affected by any of that! /s

richardto4321

It seems you're mainly just focused on price. Let's look at it a different way. Let's say 20 years from now, the BTC network is still running strong. Still with over 99% uptime and no hacks or major vulnerability that would compromise the network. Still with a predictable supply emission and everything is fundamentally sound. Would that make it more or less valuable? That's the main thing I'm getting at here.

Coleyx123

Like I said, I don't know who he is (I don't think). But I'm with you 100% on mindset. Too many people want to emulate others without being in their shoes, and unfortunately haven't developed their own mindset. What works for me may not for you, or vise versa, and that's cool. You've got to know yourself first, or else you're setting yourself up for failure. I think a lot of people screw themselves by not sticking to "their" method, and just do what a whale does, because he's got to know what he's doing. But unless you're a whale, you can't take the same long-term risk, nor do all whales even have a clue what they're doing. Had I started with BTC when I first learned it existed, I'd be set because I'd have been mining some of the first blocks and be loaded, while still not knowing shit about trading. Gotta have a method and stick to it, but most importantly, don't give into the fear.

TheRadishBros

Imo the only adoption that matters is when JPM etc automatically allocate 1-3% of all their client portfolios to BTC ETFs. Once that happens we’ll reach hyperbitcoinisation and tens of millions of dollars per coin over the following years.

CyanDew

maybe they finally get it. maybe they don’t. regardless of this, i will continue to keep my head down and wallet open. few everyday folks currently understand money, let alone Bitcoin. yet the price of BTC is where it is today. we have barely scraped the surface on the path to global adoption. the facts are hidden underneath the noise, and the majority of the world listens to the noise because the facts seem too far fetched to be real — until it isn’t.

MagnusGruuns

\*Laughs in farmed all my coins before they changed how to farm them with a few PC's and laptops, around the clock for over a year, when BTC first launched\*

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billybobbybrownbaby

kinda goes this way with all alts. in the long run it’s KING BTC

Dom_Dastardly

Did you know about BTC in 2011? And you would have sold way before now

badjano

100% I'm in BTC since 2017 and only now I am doing this correcly

aaj094

Back in April 2020, BCH was around $200 with bch's halving coming up first and btc was around 5k. So ratio 0.04. BCH shills were shouting hoarse how it was obvious that BCH had a better 10x potential while BTC doing that was pure hopium (remember the context when toilet paper was considered of more value by some than BTC because of lockdown). The ratio went from 0.04 to 0.002. Now with this latest pump, the shills will come out with the same pitch as last time, just with different numbers.

personpilot

I lump summed then started to DCA right during ATH last year. I was in the red all year but now I’ve gained everything back plus some and will continue to DCA. I have been following bitcoin forever but never bought in until recently, because BTC has now basically proven it will always in the end keep going up. 57k is the last lowest bottom I fear. But that’s not actually a bad thing, but man I hoped it would go to 20 (cause then slingshot signals would be crazy, even more crazy than the Covid slingshot) I 100% believe BTC will hit 1 mill and beyond, but not for a VERY long time. I thought it would come sooner, especially if BTC dipped below 50, but now I’m thinking itll be more like 10-15 years to do so rather than 5-10.

quintavious_danilo

You’re talking bullshit. The BTC-only version has its own clean firmware. But keep talking shit dude, karma will bite you in the butt soon enough.

No_Way5818

That’s the question everyone asking into crypto currencies. I don’t have an legit answer but I think BTC is the digital gold itself. Any attempt through tokenism. BTC will go up doesn’t matter what are the conditions. And either governments that they print money without asking me has the power on it or corporations same thing different color. But at least I can move my money faster, at least I can get into it earlier and leave something to my kids

ubermensch1001

Honestly, just buy BTC.

totallynotexciting

Bruh I’ve been here since 2017. Zoom out on the chart. BTC going to get punished in the future. Still got my bag, I’m just saying. Everyone else (even Cowen) can suck it. I’ve been through too many crypto winters at this point that I’ve already embraced the coming drop.

WoodenHair5973

Feels like this market is doing a great job punishing anyone who needs immediate confirmation. Bulls want the breakout yesterday and bears keep waiting for the perfect flush. Meanwhile BTC just keeps grinding through both narratives. Moon has been pretty useful for seeing how divided the sentiment still is.

Tricky-Tangelo123

The interesting part to me is how little BTC seems to care about headlines that would have caused absolute chaos a few cycles ago. Everyone is trying to front run the Fed and regulation at the same time, but price is basically forcing both sides to stay uncomfortable. Been seeing the same split in the Bitcoin chatter showing up on Moon lately.

Public-Lingonberry-2

Borrow 7 trillion and buy BTC, then Hold the that for 8 years

spb1

I dont know? I'm just asking - is it not as likely to go up as go down? Because this post is insinuating that because BTC has been on an upward trajectory for the past few weeks, that it'll continue to do so, and not go down. I'm asking where that assumption comes from.

Linett-Chukwuemeka61

Saylor's basically just dollar-cost averaging at this point, which is honestly the least spicy thing a mega-corp could do with their treasury. If you're not at least considering BTC allocation in a diversified portfolio right now, the opportunity cost math gets harder to ignore.

Zdendon

Too much fun like this will make BTC go 40k. You know just out of spite.

hoppeeness

Ok. But its value is determinate by how much is owned, demand and its scarcity. Sure you can own BTC and have control over it but if all the financial institutions rather own tokenized gold…how much do you think the BTC you own will be worth? What going to keep the price elevated. BTC isnt transactional this point. It’s just a store of value. How many miners are going to keep going to support it as it becomes more and more hard to mine, energy costs get more expensive and the BTC price increasingly flattens out?

Blueberry_Dependent

I'm buying Nintendo when BTC goes to 130k just to celebrate

tatertot4

BTC dropped 55% nine months after the 2025 bull peak in October. While it wasn't a 75% drop 12 months after, it's hard to argue the four year cycle is over. I doubt we'll see BTC below 56K, but the year also isn't over.

braamdepace

They are… they are all the unemployed ones who sit on reddit 9-5 posting whatever is popular for engagement. They also are the same ones that sell $100 worth of BTC and say “You’re welcome I sold”

richardto4321

So far, BTC has shown that it gets better and more valuable with time, not worst with time. The rest is just noise.

Lefties_TheWorst7331

Very limited supply and massive short squeeze of supply could send BTC to oblivion. With the supply of gold, I think that would be harder to achieve.

RTBDouglas

BTC

quintavious_danilo

You obviously missed the BTC-only edition. Suggesting Cold Card but not Bitbox is something else though.

Ok_Golf_6467

1 million BTC is not out of question with the way the US dollar is going

AdOk1101

I mined and held BTC before any other crypto currency protocol ever existed.

AdOk1101

BTC is an over valued obsolete TCP/IP network protocol due for a bubble burst driven by public IT ROI realization. BTC requires bespoke compute hardware and transactions are slow with high fees that are not adequately rewarding mining operations, and will continue devolve over time. BTC is a pending bubble at current and projected valuations. [https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/1tz0z1s/are\_bitcoin\_miners\_turning\_off\_their\_rigs/](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/1tz0z1s/are_bitcoin_miners_turning_off_their_rigs/)

AdOk1101

Nothing ever goes up forever. The academic immutable technical fact about BTC is that it's an obsolete protocol. It also happens to be wildly over valued given it's lack of protocol functionality and absolute requirement to use bespoke/specialized compute hardware that is not cheap....transactions are not cheap as well compared to other more technically capable/robust protocols. Crypto currencies are just TCP/IP network protocols folks....eventually the IT ROI value perspective will change the market and it has started already.

AdOk1101

Get it before the BTC bubble bursts on the ever increasingly clearer news that BTC is an oversold obsolete technology.

jakedaboiii

Nothing points to bitcoin having a ceiling at 100K. Money keeps inflating, so everyone keeps getting more of it. Bitcoin has a limited supply. Continually pour water (fiat) into a bucket (BTC), and the bucket is gonna get heavier and heavier (increase in value). We reached 100k before without much adoption. As adoption increase, it will only go higher. Most people with bitcoin are treating it as a long term investment/store of value.

Lavayo

Smarter than me. I was still smart enough to never go below 80% BTC though, even when I was starting with BTC and "the best altcoins". I understood the difference when I heard someone say altcoins are just privately minted fist currencies.

Queasy-Ride4291

I actually have a legit answer to this question. It stems from human psychology and how our species evolved to survive. Humans evolved to understand cause and effect, a subconscious understanding of Newton’s third law. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. If a saber-toothed tiger is chasing you, it will not stop until something stops it. Like a spear. It’s the same reason gods exist, to explain the inexplicable. We used to have many gods, that explained the wind, the sun, the moon, etc. Once science explained those away, we were left with one god to explain the rest. This brings me to markets. Stocks, bonds, commodities, sports, tulips, doesn’t matter. A market is a market. When something is trading in one direction, humans believe that only an outside event can cause that trajectory to change. Cause and effect. The flaw is that markets don’t work like that. The markets are the collective will of all participants. The market moves without regard to what’s happening around it. Sure, a news event can cause some volatility, but it’s not going to change the collective will of the market as a whole. The latest group to be burned by this phenomenon was Bitcoin bears. Price was moving down and bear the bottom several news events occurred that made them believe price was dropping even further, since the effect of something like cold card wallet attacks is negative, therefore that only adds to the trend. Well, once again, as can be related thousands of times over thousands of years, that line of thinking is incorrect. The market does not move “reacting” to outside events. If anything, outside events are reflected in the market. The cold card hack was at the bottom of a market of some degree. The “FTX crash” at the bottom of a market after a sustained downtrend. The beginnings of World War II, you guessed it, the bottom of a down trend. Same thing happens to the upside. A “pro crypto” president gets elected in the US, etc. The news events that happen are reflected by the trend that is already occurring in the market. Of course this happens at varying degrees. So, of course price can reverse for BTC, without a “reason.” It has before and will continue to do so. Because the laws of the market are more akin to quantum physics rather than Newtonian physics. Humans just aren’t hard wired to understand it since it goes against our very survival instincts. Anyway, that’s the answer to your question. 

Common-Reserve-389

With BTC I think having a plan before buying matters more than finding the perfect entry. lti yeaDecide how much volatility you can actually sit through and whether this is a trade or a mr position. I keep BTC on my Moon watchlist mainly so Im not making decisions off whatever headline is loudest that day.

CuteAd6085

With BTC I think having a plan before buying matters more than finding the perfect entry and decide how much volatility you can actually sit through and whether this is a trade or a multi year position. I keep BTC on my Moon watchlist mainly so Im not making decisions off whatever headline is loudest that day.

DankShibe

Late 2022 vibes again. 2027 will be boring like 2023 probably but the market should start going up slowly . But mostly sideways . 2028 will be the explosion . Unless the elites decide to kick it off earlier before the next halving this time . 2025 was kinda bear market for most alts except BTC , XRP , Tron and BNB

Calm-Neighborhood-43

So if we pick a random alt coin AlGO. It rose 130% between April 2025 and July 2025. On the same dates BTC rose 61% Going back further between to Nov 2024 and December 2024 ALGO rose 400% while BTC rose 60% These are the 2 most recent big moves. The same would be true for most alts in the top 150 coins Can you show me where BTC putperformed? A lot of alts just broke out of resistance in the last few weeks some of them reaching already 2x Can you see BTC higher than 2x from here? Im not predicting anything, im just pointing out evidence contrary to your claim that "BTC will outperform" and "that there is no point in holding alts"

chubs66

BTC is a secure store of value. That was never ADA's value prop. Also BTC has attracted users. ADA has not.

quintavious_danilo

30000 BTC? Are you on something?

quintavious_danilo

That’s not true. u/bitusher is a genuine BTC OG and answers most questions very informatively.

Rickard403

The rude awakening may be for those that think BTC will hit $300k or more this cycle. The conservative mindsets will not be surprised. Where is all the new money coming from? If we see a true supply shortage, it could happen, but that isn't a guarantee, it's a theory. And we are a ways away from having exchanges being out of BTC to sell.

EthanDavis63

1 BTC = 1 BTC. We aren't celebrating Bitcoin getting expensive; we're watching fiat currencies race to zero.

We_DemBoys

Invest overall if you haven't done so already. Don't forget to diversify into etf's such as VT as an example too. Don't put all you eggs in one basket. If you believe in BTC and it's future then yes. Asking advice strangers on the internet is not doing your due diligence though. Do your homework on anything you decide to invest in.

PhilMyu

When you divide infinite amounts of dollars that could exist by 21 million, you’ll get where Bitcoin price can go. It’s just human psychology to believe the status quo is „just right“ and any projection sounds unbelievable. $100 and $1000 BTC used to be pipe dreams as well.

Porcellanidae

if you want actual Bitcoin, the easiest way is to register yourself at a wellknown centralized exchange, such as coinbase. It is worth mentioning that a bitcoin is always dividable up to 0.00000001 (1/100.000.000). Which we call satoshi's. So you literally can start buying with any amount. for small amounts you can keep it there, but when your are serious you should leave notable amounts never on the exchange. An exchange is meant to exchange dollars for Bitcoin. To hold Bitcoin for the long haul you should go for a self custody wallet, such as Trezor/Jade/Bitbox... If the above is all too difficult, too hard, then you could also just go for a regular brokerage account. For instance through your bank. Most places where you can buy stock or etf's you can also buy the Bitcoin ETP. Here you can start investing in Bitcoin for 1/10000 of the price of a Bitcoin, so $8.50 gives you roughly 0.00001 BTC. ETP's are IOU's, which mean you own a paper version of Bitcoin, you dont own the actual Bitcoin, but you are exposed to its price.

UrbanGrower187

I actually agree with you. I’m not talking about people who simply have a different strategy or choose not to own Bitcoin. I’m talking about the people who repeatedly show up during every downturn claiming holders are going to lose everything and that anyone accumulating has no idea what they’re doing. Then, when the market turns around, many of those same voices disappear. So I understand why long-term accumulators occasionally push back. For a lot of us, the goal was never to prove we can time every top and bottom it’s simply to keep accumulating BTC over the long term. There’s a difference between celebrating your strategy working and rubbing it in someone’s face.

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YoungTall28

BTC, i think don't fade away

hoppeeness

So your argument is BTC in cold wallets? How much did the BTC when it hits $100k will be in cold wallets owned by individuals? .0001%?

Aggravating_Wrap6763

Every time a short is liquidated the exchange buys their BTC back, so the net effect is zero

tomerlrn

If you’re very poor right now, step 1 is probably not buying bitcoin lol. Build a little cash buffer first, then learn the basics with small amounts. For research, start with r/BitcoinBeginners for BTC and r/Bogleheads for boring long-term investing.

AdOk1101

BTC is a bubble sitting on an obsolete protocol.

biohazard842

I lump summed at $67K, saw it go up a bunch, then down even low, now up a bunch again. Lump sum when fear is high and BTC cost to mine is significantly higher than the current price has not steered me wrong.

AdOk1101

BTC bubble

AdOk1101

Meanwhile BTC is over valued obsolete tech (i.e. a bubble) and all the other ADA imitators cost to much to transact over, including BTC.

Fun-Analysis-182

Dirt cheap. Early July 2010 it was under a cent, so a dollar got you 100+ coins. The Slashdot writeup mid-month pushed it to around 8 cents, and even then $100 would've been over a thousand BTC.

Amazing_Giraffe_7464

There were plans for the US to auction off some of the BTC they have but then that BTC strategic reserve idea came up and they paused.

derbyfan1

Dw, BTC will *easily weather the storm.*

FX_King_2021

I saw the same hopium posts like "$500k, $1 million, etc." when Bitcoin hit $125k :D All I’m hoping for is the BTC price to reach its ATH again, stay there for a year or so, and then maybe aim for the next target of $150k-$200k. The $300k mark sounds like it’s still years away.

Adventurous_Mode_369

Wallet is fine!! Just keep stacking. Buy Buy Buy!! I did something similar, lost around $15k in futures. Now I treat my wallet as a “one way street” the BTC I send to it, will NEVER be sent out. If I want to leverage trade again i’ll deposits money directly for that, never gambling with my stack again though!

TheRadishBros

BTC auto-adjusts, also overall electricity production globally has been rocketing upwards over the past decade, partly due to massive advances in solar and wind tech.

fengjianzhi

I’m going to give you the harsh truth those TikTok influencers won’t, but it’s the exact advice that will actually make you money instead of losing your savings. Those videos of people making thousands a day from their phones? They make their money by selling courses to beginners and farming engagement, not by trading. The statistical reality is that 95% of day traders lose their money to algorithms and insiders. If you try to quit your 9-to-5 next month by flipping crypto, you will get wrecked. If you actually want to change your financial future, here is the boring, proven playbook: 1. Turn off your DMs right now. Anyone messaging you on Reddit offering to "help," "guide you," or asking you to connect a wallet is a scammer. Every single one. 2. Stick to the blue chips. Open an account on Coinbase or Kraken and buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Ignore the meme coins promising 100x returns, they are essentially lottery tickets where the house always wins. 3. DCA (Dollar Cost Average). Buy a set amount (even just $20 or $50 a paycheck) every single week, regardless of whether the market is up or down. This takes the emotion out of investing and prevents panic-buying. 4. Think in years, not days. Crypto moves in 4-year cycles. Buy, hold, and learn how to move your coins to a hardware wallet (like a Ledger or Trezor) for safe keeping. Keep grinding your day job, build your stack quietly, and have patience. It is not a get-rich-quick cheat code, but if you are disciplined and hold long enough, it is one of the best wealth builders of our generation.

TheReaIJuice

BTC stays the same while fiat value goes diwn

baldbundy

A vibe of 'You will never sever see BTC under 100k'.

Final_Bite_7228

Hey! I own 4.3 BTC!

n8dahwgg

That's what I did. No regrets. You will do way better financially owning BTC over the next 30 years. But everyone is different and it's impossible to know what's best for you.

TCr0wn

No. Being over exposed to BTC is a sure fire way to get rekt.

Peturio

Sure, dude. Just put USD 100 million in BTC right now. Even if BTC would tank by 90% over 10 years, you can still retire on 10 million. Easy!

ExpressResearch9514

How do you buy real BTC? Is Coinbase the only way or can you buy through Fidelity?

Lefties_TheWorst7331

We get out of it the satisfaction of returning fire when they were all dogging on DCAing or people buying for the first time "should wait until 40k 50k 30k" when someone post they bought BTC for their first time, or accomplished a milestone like 0.01 BTC, etc. The memes come from both sides. The 40k people were so confident, too, which makes return fire more 🔥

nature_nate_17

I don't blame you. I buy and HODL BTC and BTCI; its the winning combo👍

Mascho__

BTC is free market, everybody can buy it how much he wants. If you don't want them to buy it, buy it first.

Adventurous_Mode_369

You need to stop looking at how much your BTC is worth and just look at how much you HAVE. Continue to DCA, obviously when it finally hits your number, cash out and retire…. for me I don’t expect that for decades I’m not looking for a sports car, I’m looking for a WEALTHY retirement. I’m young I have time.

Kenesson-Ongute

Just use a well-known wallet and you will be good. As everyone else already said, don't pick something shady if you don't want to share your BTC with random scammers on the internet.

sQtWLgK

ETF though, so it's probably just fake, paper BTC and not the real deal

Peturio

You (BTC) have been the benchmark all along, so here is your card. One year forward from current volatility with no trend assumed: worst 5% of years lose 51% or more, one in five paths goes through a 50% drawdown, one in a hundred through 70%, median path bottoms at −38%, one in twenty ends below half, one in twenty doubles. Replays on 100% BTC: the Oct 2025 to Jul 2026 bear −51%, the 10 Oct flash crash −7% in a day, the June cascade −15%, the FTX week −23%.

Peturio

Ok. I play! The bull half of your plan, 90% SOL plus 2% each in DOGE, PEPE, WIF, BONK and SHIB, is SOL with a hat on. The memes move at 0.75 to 0.85 correlation to SOL, so the one year odds are the same as holding SOL alone: a coin flip of a 50% drawdown, one in eight of a 70% one, one in six of doubling. Now, to the rinse and repeat part: backtested on the last 27 months, which had four SOL bull legs and four bear legs of 30% or more. Rules: 90/10 in the bull legs, all BTC in the bear legs, no fees. Switch on the exact top and bottom every time and $10k becomes $32k. Two weeks late each time, $15k. Thirty days late, $9.9k, which is a lot of rinsing to end up where you started. Sixty days late, $8.7k. Replace hindsight with a mechanical trigger (sell when SOL is 20 to 30% off its two month high, buy back when it is 20 to 30% off the low) and you get $3.8k to $6.6k, with up to 60 round trips. Never rotate at all, $6.3k. Hold BTC the whole time and do nothing, $12k. So the strategy has a working version, and it needs you to call eight turning points in a row, each within about two weeks. The last one was the September 2025 top, after which the 90/10 book lost 75% while BTC lost 48%. If you called that one, respect. Thirty days late, you did the same as never rotating. (And just for completness: same disclaimers as always, model estimates and a backtest with hindsight in it, not advice)

EstimateIll4262

How do you short BTC??

Thaddaeus_Undergrade

If you still have a manager you don't own enough BTC, so maybe don't tell them to shut up just yet.

Romanizer

https://bitbo.io/treasuries/countries/ China is at 194,000 BTC according to that source.

kshucker

90% SOL going into the next bull. 10% meme coins for funsies. It’ll all be turned into BTC at some point for the bear market. Rinse and repeat.

Sacredwisp

I think we're going to see BTC eventually break to the upside and get back over the top half of the power law at some point. Or at least break the diminishing returns (from the top) 4 year cycle doomers. 17k -> 69k -> 126k. If we follow these diminishing returns from the top, then wouldn't we go like -> 160k -> 200k? Really? 200k in 7-8 years? That theory is incompatible with BTC adoption growing. If you genuinely think that, might as well just sell now and get it over with, since there's no gains to be had anyway. History will tell, and I don't know if we'll ever hit the very top of it again, but dor people that think the last cycle being lower on the top means BTC is dead are going to have a rude awakening at some point.

spb1

Serious question - why do people think that when BTC goes up it just cant go back down? Is it not as likely to go back down to 60k this year as it is rally to 100k?

poughkeepsee

It could never be trusted in the past, it was often corrected to make it fit whatever BTC was doing. Like another user said, astrology for men.

Ok_Promotion_5940

Years ago bought at 16k and sold for 32k still haunts me to this day and it was a total of 9:( But this cycle bought three at $68k taken me a Long time to buy back in because of BTC PTSD

Big_Perspective_209

We spend a lot of time being told BTC is worthless and going to $0 so when it pumps there’s nothing to do except gloat and dream of the next pump lol

Sea-Development-8046

Because with actual $BTC we could ask for proof, which he could easily provide. With an ETF, it's easy to fake. Dude is full of shit.

Sea-Development-8046

You have a 100k to invest in BTC, but then run to Reddit for validation. Nah. You're full of shit. 100%.

RetiredAvocado

Maybe it all \*seems\* obnoxious because you missed the boat. Don't let random accounts online cheering bother you so much. The problem is not them, it's you, and your conscious or subconscious regrets. I'm a big fan of bitcoin. Can't imagine if bears and trolls and detractors trashing BTC upset me every day. They can be pretty vocal, but in one ear and out the other. No effect on my cortisol, dopamine, serotonin. What you focus on gets noticed. Look for, and count, all the red cars you see today. Or whatever specific detail you usually don't pay attention to. And no, I don't get all giddy when bears get rekd. It's someone losing money. Again, your whole issue is within. It's not what happens but how you react to it.

Aerocryptic

Really depends what time frame you look at. The XMR/BTC all time chart is not really bullish

Peturio

ZEC is the whole story here. It runs at about 150% annual volatility, more than twice SOL, so with 48% of the money it carries 72% of the risk and the four coins behave like 1.8 independent bets rather than four. The upside of that is real. In a one year simulation from current volatility and correlations with no trend assumed, 30% of paths double and the top 5% end above 7x. The other side is that the worst 5% lose 71% or more (BTC alone, 51%), five paths in six go through a 50% drawdown at some point, and one in three goes through 70%. This mix does not do moderate. Two things about ZEC the weights don't show. Over the last twelve months its correlation to SOL, NEAR and HYPE was 0.35 to 0.45, low for crypto, which is why the diversification ratio is a decent 1.19. Over the last 90 days that has flipped. ZEC's beta to BTC is now about 1.9, the highest in the book, so a 30% BTC drop today maps to ZEC −56%, NEAR −40%, HYPE −38%, SOL −35%, and the book −46%. The coin that diversified you last year is the one most sensitive to BTC right now. Replays on today's weights. The October 2025 to July 2026 bear, which cost BTC 51%, would have made this mix +47%, entirely because ZEC rose 152% inside that window while SOL fell 66% and NEAR 39%. The path still went to −22% first, in March. The June 2026 liquidation cascade cost 29% in five days and ZEC fell 33% in it, so in a fast deleveraging it does not hedge anything. The FTX window costs 41%, mostly SOL at −63% (HYPE did not exist yet and is filled in by beta). One number to distrust. Resample the last twelve months of actual daily moves and the median outcome is 14x. That is not a forecast, it is the 2025-26 ZEC rally dominating the sample, and what it tells you is that this book's entire track record is one event. Liquidity at retail size is a non-issue for all four, and a stock market shock on its own barely registers. As usual, there are model estimates under those assumptions, not advice.

Schuano

I am begging people to denote the BTC value in other currencies IN ADDITION to USD. Back in 2024 2025, people were talking about BTC going 120k USD etc. without pointing out that the value of the USD had dropped a ton. If you had 92 Swiss Francs in the beginning of 2023, that was worth 100 USD, those same 92 Swiss Francs now are worth 112 USD. One of the main theses of the sub is that the US is devaluing the dollar. Cool. But if you actually believed that, you wouldn't be using the USD conversion as evidence of BTC's real value.

Peturio

Ran the five coins in your screenshot (if there are more below ROSE, post them and I'll add them). At current prices that's about $1,020, LTC 70%, DOGE 10%, VET 9%, ADA 8%, ROSE 3%, and you need roughly +80% to get back to what you paid. Bad year first. Simulated one year forward from current volatility and correlations with no trend assumed, the worst 5% of outcomes lose 64% or more. The same dollars in BTC alone lose 51% or more. The median path goes through a 49% drop at some point during the year, so the odds of sitting through a 50% drop in the next twelve months are about one in two. For BTC alone it is one in five. One path in ten goes through a 70% drop. The recovery question, since that is really what you asked. In the same simulation, 18% of paths end the year at or above what you paid in May 2025. Put the same dollars into BTC and that number is 8%. The reason is the same one that makes the 50% drop likely. These five coins run at about 65% annual volatility against 44% for BTC, and volatility cuts both ways. It is what gives you a real shot at +80%, and it is what puts 13% of paths below half of today's value. If the next twelve months look like the last twelve (a resample of the real daily moves since September 2025), the picture is much worse, under 1% of paths reach breakeven and the median path loses another 54%. That is a statement about how bad the last year was for these five, not a forecast. Which coin does the damage. LTC is 70% of the money and 69% of the risk, so there is no hidden concentration beyond the obvious one. The five move together at 0.8 to 0.9 with each other (ROSE at 0.6), and the mix has a diversification ratio of 1.08, meaning five coins take about 7% of the volatility off compared with holding one of them. If BTC drops 30% tomorrow, the last 90 days of betas say LTC drops 26%, DOGE 35%, VET 31%, ADA 44%, ROSE 29%, and the book 29%. The coins you are down most on (ADA, ROSE) are also the ones that fall hardest when BTC does. Replays of actual crashes on today's mix. October 2025 to July 2026 costs 68%, BTC alone 51%. The 10 October 2025 flash crash costs 23% in a day, BTC 7% (the mix falls three times as far as BTC on a fast liquidation day). The June 2026 cascade costs 20%, BTC 15%. The FTX week costs only 1.6%, but that is because LTC happened to rise 11% in November 2022 while DOGE fell 47%, so treat it as luck rather than protection. The August 2024 yen unwind costs 20%, the December 2024 Fed selloff 17%. Days to get out. At this size every one of the five sells in minutes, total slippage about $4 even at 5% of a stressed day's volume. Liquidity is not a risk you have. What the numbers above do not include is that all of it sits on one exchange, which is a separate risk from price. One more thing the models say. A stock market selloff on its own (S&P −15%, dollar +8%, credit down) moves this book by under 1%. It only reacts to what BTC and ETH do, which matches the 0.8 to 0.9 correlations above. And the necessary disclaimer at the end: none of this is a prediction or advice.

MM0627

When everyone started talking about BTC i prefer short again...