BTC

retracement

Congratulations. Realising and solidifying profits is never a bad thing. Any future rises (and profit) is only theoretical until it happens and you lock in by selling. Your house is likely to hold value. Hope you enjoy your new home and good luck with any future speculation on BTC.

ma7she

Only matters how much BTC you have not how much it is worth in fiat unless you want to sell. Buy more, average down and hold for when you're much older

BTCMachineElf

Yes, forever. BTC Is a bet against fiat, and fiat was built to fall. In the future you can use the Bitcoin as collateral bfor Fiat lones and as Bitcoin outperforms the loan APR, there is never a reason to settle. If you do that, just remember to keep margins that are healthy for any possible future downturn.

Rare_Rich6713

First off, that’s a crazy trade. 20k average to 110k exit is elite timing, can’t even argue with that. And you’re right about consensus usually being dangerous in crypto. When something becomes obvious, the asymmetric upside tends to shrink. But I think there’s a difference between consensus narrative and base asset allocation. Heavy BTC isn’t a hype trade. It’s more like default positioning when uncertainty is high. In early bull euphoria, consensus can kill you. In late-cycle or unclear macro, consensus safety can actually be the smart play. For me it’s less about BTC will 10x from here and more about BTC is the asset least likely to punish patience. And as you can see looks like BTCFi is starting to gain traction which means many are starting to see BTC as an asset to hold for long term and even worthy of staking.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Binance's SAFU Fund has purchased an additional 4,225 BTC worth approximately $299.6 million, bringing its total holdings to 10,455 BTC. The acquisition is part of a reserve rebalance aimed at enhancing user protection. Binance has committed to transparency by providing onchain references, including wallet addresses and transaction IDs, for tracking fund movements. The SAFU fund, established in 2018, safeguards user assets and currently holds crypto assets valued at around $1 billion. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Rob_Cake

BTC could hit $1 and everyone would still be making these posts 

Rare_Rich6713

That’s a painful but very real lesson. Respect for actually admitting it. Leverage feels smart when it works and catastrophic when it doesn’t. Most people only talk about the wins, not the blown accounts. BTC-only isn’t about being conservative, it’s about survival. If you stay in the game long enough, the math starts working for you instead of against you. Sometimes the real edge is just not self-destructing. Anyways what do you think about staking BTC?

Mageant

It also works the other way too, if you miss out at buying at 70k and need to buy at 90k, then you only have 0.78 BTC instead, which means you miss out at $110K.

jchexl

I haven’t used a BTC atm in awhile but I used to use these in Canada like 7 years ago, fees weren’t much more than you’d expect from an exchange, and there was 0 KYC. That being said Canadas cracked down on crypto recently and it’s very possible they have to require it now.

seomajster

We have millions similar assets(cryptos). At least houndred that are really popular. BTC is not that special. Its only popular. Is crypto/blockchain technology dope? Sure. Its hype? Sure. Does it provide tremendous value that change average Joe life? No. Average Joe dont care. Average Joe want to get rich quick, and that's why it costs what it costs. We are on bear market. Crypto crash we see may cause financial crysis similar to crysis in 2008 when lehmann brothers went belly up. Big fishes may just speculate on BTC by buying BTC on lows and creating dumps on high while earning good money by shorting btc. When market will go low enough - big fishes will acumulate BTC and wait years. Global crypto market is worth something like $2.5 trilion USD. Global AI market is something like $300 bilion. In this comparision AI is really something, and crypto is nothing (with few exceptions). Still crypto market is worth nearly 10 times more. Why? Speculation.

GIGAbtcHodl

happy for you on the BTC journey! also interested how many of us will leave the community in this current moment, on the other hand, filtering out community with strong hands is a nice thing

Rare_Rich6713

That's the goal, no matter what BTC cant go wrong, I noticed this morning Binance just bought some BTC around 300M worth. I DCA too lol, and I'm staking on babylon, my target is around 150K which is a clean 2x from here, that's all I need to retire hopefully it happens sooner.

cyclicalwand

BTC dropped from $69k to $15k during Bidens second year in office. Not sure that was ‘just fine’.

defi_farmoor

The ETF angle is what separates this cycle from previous XRP hype. Last week XRP spot ETFs pulled $39M in net inflows while BTC ETFs bled $689M. That's institutional money making a directional bet, not retail FOMO. Add RLUSD launching in Japan via SBI this quarter, plus stablecoin regulation discussions at the White House with Ripple literally at the table, and you've got real fundamentals backing the price action. Not saying it can't dump. But the setup is genuinely different this time. The on-chain activity and institutional flows tell a different story than 2021.

defi_farmoor

Crypto doesn't care about promises from politicians. BTC dropping alongside equities tells you everything: macro still drives price short-term. Tariffs, rate uncertainty, dollar strength. None of that changed because someone signed an executive order. The interesting signal is actually in the ETF flows. XRP and SOL pulled inflows last week while BTC bled $689M. That's not retail panic. That's institutional rotation into higher-beta assets. Long-term the regulatory clarity helps, but expecting a president to pump your bags is peak cope.

rs1971

Maybe it's not FUD. Maybe, outside of BTC, it is all worthless and people have finally figured that out.

WellieWelli

Could be many things. End of war in Ukraine, Trump losing mid-terms, clarity act passing, fed rate change, government reserve purchases, returns on gold & silver go back to normal Any one of these mixed with the fact that BTC fundamentally hasn't changed, institutional adoption is still rising, temporary/ lightweight investors get shaken out after a long bear market and previous cycles seem to control retail expectations.

GPThought

You nailed the psychology here. The mainstream investors who FOMO'd in at 100k-125k are in a brutal spot - they're not ideologically committed to BTC, they just wanted gains. Now they're stuck between selling at a massive loss or holding through uncertainty. The silver lining? This is exactly how diamond hands are forged. The ones who survive this and learn WHY Bitcoin matters (not just the number going up) will become the next wave of true believers.

RichyKisia

BTC will definitely shoot again come December holders will be smiling

eiretaco

House first. Consider DCAing a smaller more affordable amount monthly if you must have some BTC exposure. The money I have in i do not need for years from now.

RichyKisia

I remember in around 2021/2022 BTC went down to around 20000$ and many people sold their BTC. Only for it to hit 100000$ some around 1 and a half a year later. If possible buy BTC at it's lowest

Hot_Roof_7545

Bitcoin often defies expectations, and trying to perfectly time the market rarely works. Holding back because of the 4-year cycle theory can make you miss opportunities. Even buying at 70k instead of 50k, the long-term gains are massive if BTC reaches$500k. Accumulating now, even during a correction, positions you for significant upside. Patience and conviction matter more than perfect timing in crypto, especially with Bitcoin’s history of surprising price moves.

Mundane-Outside8943

So should i Hodl forever? .cause we dont know the next ATH. As recorded BTC always fell 50 to even 80 percent from its ATH severel times in history. whats ur plan ?

Used_Rhubarb_9265

Biggest mistake I made early on was overtrading and thinking I needed to react to every dip. I’d say focus more on understanding custody and risk than chasing gains.  Plus since you’re in Argentina, it’s also worth thinking about access to liquidity. One thing I learned later is that selling BTC isn’t the only way to get cash. Crypto-backed credit can be useful if you ever need short-term liquidity without exiting your position. Platforms like Nexo offer that but I’d only explore it after you’re comfortable with the basics and risks.

DoctorFrosty6219

Miners are in trouble due to energy prices. I’ve read a lot are closing shop because they are losing 1000’s of dollars per day compared to their revenues if the BTC is this current value. If BTC stays like this for a while, and miners will stop, transaction delays will increase due to less computing power. This makes the blockchain less safe. My gut says: sell it all. Don’t wait for the real dip when this becomes mainstream news.

DoctorFrosty6219

Yes they can. Miners are the issue. Energy prices are way too high. Without miners there’s no stable network of transactions. They keep the blockchain safe. If the crash continues, many miners will stop their companies, leading to an even bigger crash. This is going to either be the end of the bitcoin, or a stabilizing factor. I’m pretty sure in the current political and economic environment many people would rather invest in backed products (stocks) to have a bit more stability and predictable income. We’ll see. But my gut feeling is that without miners, BTC is going to be fucked

CriCriSwiss

His match was right because he based it on one BTC not 70k investment. Let’s play nice.

GPThought

This hits different. The "maximum regret" principle is real - BTC consistently punishes people who think they've got the timing figured out. I've seen way more people miss rallies waiting for a better entry than actually catching the exact bottom. The math you laid out is the right framing - 30k vs 50k is a rounding error when you zoom out.

sbudhramk

If she would care about an unrealised loss then this market isn’t for her. Only invest money you can, and are willing to lose. Now, we know BTC won’t ever go to 0 so there’s that.

TapThatYak

Here's a level headed approach for you all that was passed down to me, but also is fundamentally common across youtube. Some short analysis followed up by the easy way to sell out. Lows in percentages down from ATHs: 2017, \~84% 2021, \~75% 2025, \~52% so far This can be used as a guide. Volatility has gone down, therefore he highs and lows are contracting. One can expect a higher than average possibility that this cycle will be down between 62-66%. That puts us in a fair overall drop to $43-48k. (Realistically drop to 50k will be the psychological barrier) Percent increase from Cycle low to cycle low: 2014 low to 2018 low: \~1900% increase 2018 low to 2022 low: \~380% increase 2022 low to current low: \~270% increase If we touched 45k, it will make the low to low from prior cycle will be \~180% increase. Seems low, but once again volatility has come down quite a bit. Let's look at cycle low to cycle highs: 2014 low to 2017 high: \~11500% increase 2018 low to 2021 high: \~2000% increase 2022 low to 2025 high: \~690% increase What's the takeaway: You're never gonna time things 100% correct but you can about 50-70% depending on what metrics you look at and how you DCA. Hint, consider buying when the weekly RSI is below 30 and monthly RSI is below 45. Right now, I assume next cycle worst case will be below 690% increase from this year's cycle low to the next high. Say you buy now (70k), and the cycle low hits 50k this year, and we go up 600%. This puts us at 300k BTC price, that's a 428% return. Say you sell on the way up, 10% at 150k, 15% at 180k, 15% at 200k, 20% at 230k, 20% at 250k and perfectly time the last 20% at 300k. That gives you average sell price at 228k, yielding at \~325% increase. You pulled roughly 54%, 325%/600%, of the overall cycle low-cycle high bitcoin gain! If this happens across 3 years, congrats you just achieved 48% annualized gains. It takes mechanical discipline. If you want your sanity to grow a family and as a person, it's absolutely necessary. If you're wealthy enough and don't care, congrats HODL for the next 3 cycles.

edakaya240

Your approach makes a lot of sense in uncertain conditions. Focusing on BTC reduces narrative risk and keeps you aligned with the asset that historically leads every recovery. Sometimes protecting capital and staying simple is a smarter strategy than chasing early altcoin rotations.

zkrooky

BTC may very well be $30K in one year, while your house will either be 20% more expensive, or already sold to someone else. Don't play with the money you need.

MrNiceGuyEBEB

1. Search his E-Mail account for „Bitcoin“, „blockchain“ or „BTC“ (most likely Coinbase or blockain.info) 2. use AI to assess ideas on how to proceed 3. never share any details (password, user name etc) with either any Nigerian prince or AI 4. don’t answer dms

Jebne

Let me guess: slow bleed until burger dump, they dump for 8 hours straight; BTC -8%, ETH -12% EOD.

Admirral

2.5 BTC is what 200k or so? tbh this is nothing to a lot of people. They have our attention. We should go look if there is any message in the tx instead. or take a look at the sending wallet. It could be a lot of things.

lexxwern

Dumbest comment I've read in a long time. Spot Bitcoin with hard limits (21mil) has supply constraints identical to physical gold, without the burden of storage, transferability and divisibility. Paper gold and Paper BTC are just games and manipulation.

Arijan101

Ok, so BTC did a 3x. Not great no terrible. What else moved except BTC?

Puzzled_Cookie778

People who've been through multiple cycles tend to be traumatized by buying too early, so now they're overly cautious. Ironically, when everyone expects prolonged pain, that's usually when BTC pulls a surprice move

Electrical-Yard1582

BTC is not the market 

Horror-Sector7498

Both individually, retail barely moves BTC. Collectively, inflows/outflows can influence support, resistance, and short-term price consolidation.

DiamondHandsDarrell

A quick return to the low $60Ks this week is unlikely because the recent selloff already flushed leverage and produced one of the most extreme short term oversold readings in years, followed by aggressive dip buying and short covering. When Bitcoin drops this fast and then stabilizes above reclaimed levels (like the high $60Ks), it usually enters a repair phase with higher volatility, not an immediate continuation straight down. For BTC to revisit the low $60Ks again so soon, you’d need a fresh external shock or a broad risk off move in equities and credit, not just technical momentum. Absent that, sellers are exhausted, shorts are cautious, and price typically ranges or grinds higher before deciding the next leg

Gohf046

70% BTC 30% Solana

MysticFlare

It is. BTC is the only relevant next to it. But if you are looking to 10x in mid term TAO alone could do that. Safely. Subnet tokens, which you can buy with only TAO and follow BTC emission schedule, are doing their own bullrun at the moment. Taostats.io shows you these tokens. These are legit companies, like chutes.io , who handle most of openrouter traffic. This is the realest bet with real adoption. Fair launch, no BS sales/backdoor deals or VC’s

sakaloko

I only see it 2 ways BTC is either going to ath again, or never again It's likely that it goes ath again, so I keep stacking

RandomJoe7

First off, I'm not from the US, and I give a single shit about who is in the white house. Second, go to the BTC chart, zoom out max, and look at the 4 year cycles. I literally made a post on this reddit towards the end of last year (that had almost 900k views), saying that the bear market is about to come and one should sell. Completely irrelevant of who was deciding what at what time. Why? Because the cycle is doing the cycle things, as it has already done in 2021 when I was around, as well as 2017 when I was around. And every time the people who didn't see it coming pulled some kind of excuse out of their ass as to why it crashed (instead of just looking at the market cycles). Stop being blinded by emotions, stop being blinded by noise, and focus on the fundamentals. Anyone who did that saw what was coming and sold end of last year near the high - it was obvious. And every cycle the highs get lower - we will never see 100x's again in bitcoin like there was 10-15 years ago. The market is too big for that. So next cycle, I'll be happy if it hits something like 200k ... and you can already count on idiots like you saying "omg wtf is this cycle it's so bad, \*insert reason here\* for why this cycle is underperforming".

RandomJoe7

Good arguments (not). First off, I'm not from the US, and I give a single shit about who is in the white house. Second, go to the BTC chart, zoom out max, and look at the 4 year cycles. I literally made a post on this reddit towards the end of last year (that had almost 900k views), saying that the bear market is about to come and one should sell. Completely irrelevant of who was deciding what at what time. Why? Because the cycle is doing the cycle things, as it has already done in 2021 when I was around, as well as 2017 when I was around. And every time the people who didn't see it coming pulled some kind of excuse out of their ass as to why it crashed (instead of just looking at the market cycles). Stop being blinded by emotions, stop being blinded by noise, and focus on the fundamentals. Anyone who did that saw what was coming and sold end of last year near the high - it was obvious. And every cycle the highs get lower - we will never see 100x's again in bitcoin like there was 10-15 years ago. The market is too big for that. So next cycle, I'll be happy if it hits something like 200k ... and you can already count on idiots like you saying "omg wtf is this cycle it's so bad, \*insert reason here\* for why this cycle is underperforming".

suspicious_Jackfruit

Why would the owner of a dormant wallet already with millions in it add 2.5 more BTC after years of nothing? This is silly

Accomplished_Owl1338

Your thinking and intention are right, but maybe you are lacking communication with your wife. DCAing now is the right thing to do, imho, given the recent price action. Historically BTC has performed much better than any other asset - including real-estate, which is a liability - and periods of underperformance are great opportunities to accumulate so the money invested on it can be used to buy a better property later on and set you both up for a better future. Now, if your wife wants to buy a house, she must be planning to have kids soon and that is definitely a conversation you two should be having so there is alignment on the mid/long term goals :) Maybe suggest you start saving for the house in 2027-28, or plan to buy it by the time you are 32 and work the savings math backwards (how much for downpayment x how long to save that amount, all inflation adjusted).

Rydog_78

$70k is still a lot of money to throw down for 1 BTC. If you were an OG and got a bunch of BTC for the cost of a bushel of raspberries and hodl then you’re doing great. However, not many people can drop 70k to own 1 whole Bitcoin. Owning 1 Bitcoin is extremely rare now. Also, I think if everyone knew that Bitcoin would be 450k in a short amount of time then Bitcoin will be worth that much because everyone would buy as much today and poof the price would skyrocket to 450k. Kind of like a self full filling prophecy. But in reality no one has a crystal ball and knows what the price will do or know when BTC will hit 500k. Personal time preference plays a big role too. Some might not be willing to wait for BTC to hit 500k and who’s to say it ever actually reaches that price. Again it goes back to time preference. Some might want to never sell. Some might want to buy and sell quickly for a little profit. Some will not want to wait a long time for the price to reach that amount. Some might look elsewhere for a hot trade that will moon and outperform BTC and make a lot of money but without having to drop 70k to own 1 BTC. I think fiat games have instilled in a lot of people the mentality to trade in and out of stocks. To find the next thing to buy and wait until it goes up and sell, rinse and repeat. People can’t wrap their brains around that you don’t need to do this. Just buy and hold BTC and that’s all you need to do

Rexpertisel

We all need exit currency bro. How much BTC you wanna buy?

Sin-City-Sinner

💯 how ya gonna not scoop some BTC if you happened to be watching when it hit 61-62k this last week..

Rexpertisel

Let's not forget that the people who own 1/3rd of the world now own enough BTC to control the btc market the same way they do all other markets.

Practical_Cap_4815

Every clown is saying 'time to buy!' - therefore BTC will not do what the circus wants. Exchanges are in control. Not clowns.

imnotyour_daddy

Don't buy BTC on credit.

andys811

While I agree with the first half, you are thinking about the second part you said completely wrong. Don't think in Bitcoin if you are using dollars to purchase Bitcoin, otherwise you will buy more when it's high and less when it's low, if you want 1 BTC if it was $1,000 you'd buy $1,000 and if it was $100k you'd buy $100,000. It would be better to reverse that for obvious reasons, might aswell buy 100 BTC if it was $1,000 if your going to buy $100k at $100k... If you have $100k and you buy at 70k you have ~1.43 BTC, that's 710k at $500k per BTC, whereas at $50k price you'd get 2 BTC which would be worth $1m. That's 40% more, it's not logical to think you make $20k less gains because you are not comparing the same amounts invested

RSI-Watcher

BTC just bounced off its 200 week moving average. Week, not day.

OpticallyMosache

That's a good point. When I first started buying BTC, the goal was always to get 1 full coin. I never even really knew how much I had spent. So getting 1 at an average of $70k instead of $50k wouldn't have mattered. It seems like a person that is trying to only time buys at lows and max out their sats/dollar will actually just end up never buying as much.

boomerangthrowaway

Oh the days ripping BTC lol

Excellent_Mango7377

Entry points dont matter if you plan to hold 10 years. Imagine the folks waiting for 10k BTC price when BTC was 15k or 20k. When it went to 126k, I dont think anyone cared that they entered at 10k or 20k. Entering and holding is the most important. Trying to time the bottom and the top is a fools endeavor. If it goes to 500k or 1 Million, the entry point today is even more of a non issue.

OpticallyMosache

That's a good point. When I started, it was always a goal of getting to 1BTC and I never really knew how much I had spent. You know?

Direct-Protection-81

If you held a few BTC at the start and sold at peak and invested in stocks then this would be quite believable, I also wish to do similarly. Buy btc with stock profits, stack when low, sell and pull a little out to buy more shares when ideally a bit higher, as a more secure way of holding the liquidity.

jtashiro

DCA+ as others have pointed out. Set your DCA that you always want to buy and then place additional limit orders at predetermined prices certain percentages below market, and increase the amount you want to buy. If BTC dips down, you catch those dips automatically by having limit orders already on the exchange, without having to jump in. Set and forget. Reset daily.

grayjacanda

If you buy are able to buy 1 BTC at $50K then having $70K on hand at that point would get you 1.4 BTC, which actually \*will\* be a big difference down the road Nothing wrong with admitting the value of a good entry point I agree with the general idea that the winter may be cut short just because everyone has seen this movie two or three times already now ... but on the other hand, there are what look like previous attempts to frontrun the cycle that just ended up failing. Assuming that we just go up from here, six or nine months before it would normally be over, seems very optimistic.

7ivor

I agree with the concept of buying at good prices and not waiting for a further drop, but at least do the math right. If you have $70k to buy 1 BTC, but instead wait for (and get) $50k/btc, then you can buy 1.4 BTC. At $500k/btc that extra 0.4 btc is worth $200k. The difference between buying at $70k and $50k isn't just $20k, it's a 40% increase in the bitcoin purchased.

lfcliverbird96

Rent as long as possible and save in BTC, then be patient and wait until BTC can pay for your house…however it could be years…it will be high risk and you will have to wait if the upside doesn’t come..

ElderMight

Bitcoin is long term savings. It's not an asymmetric bet that could net you 400% or more returns in 1 year. You're gonna need the loan anyway. After the house, figure out the DCA - increase your income, reduce spending and costs. Now if you're willing to wait 5-10 years, saving in bitcoin makes more sense. Housing prices in bitcoin are trending toward 0 BTC over time. If it were up to me, we would keep saving in BTC over another 5 years, but we have a toddler now. We've seen >200% returns on our savings. Luckily I made 500% in the stock market last year so we will not have to touch our BTC yet.

Lazarous86

Everyone in here trying to time it, but started passively buying this year and don't plan to stop. BTC is just something to own, not to trade. Eventually I might take some profit whenever that day comes, but I'll never sell all of it. 

Fit_Aide_1706

BTC 200 week moving average is $58K. So $60k and lower is probably good buy there. But a lot of people are saying it can crash even lower like 35k-45k.

khai0001

These are good lessons. Another thing is that people underestimate the returns of hodling BTC and do nothing. They like the shinny new coins and chase the 100x returns but ended up getting burned after the narrative died.

OpticallyMosache

I would not recomend buying Bitcoin with funds you may need in the next couple years. You may be forced to sell at a loss. I only buy BTC if I'm willing and able to hold it for 10+ years.

No_Broccoli_4427

OCT is the cycle LOW bro , i personally converted my BTC to something else (CC canton)

Flamboiant_Canadian

Solana is always good. It'll tank if BTC tanks, so best to stock up. I was referring everyone to Solana back when it was $17, unfortunately I paid off $80k in debt instead of investing. If it goes that low again, I know what I'm buying!  Everyone can hate Solana for what it is, but it's a sheer money machine and it follows BTC up and it follows BTC down (unlike everything else that just goes down and doesn't recover). 

MonsutaReipu

I remember when Shiba Inu and other memecoins "burned" half of their supply by donating it to Vitalik's eth address. I also remember the parabolic crash in the value of these tokens when Vitalik decided to just dump all of the memecoins in his wallet one day. If Satoshi's wallet ever wakes up, BTC is crashing hard.

mattriver

As others have recommended: 1. Ignore the DMs, as nearly all will be scammers. 2. Search through his old emails and search for things like BTC, Bitcoin and maybe Coinbase. In all likelihood, you’re likely looking for a 12-word group of random words, this is called the “seed phrase” or “key phrase”. It allows you to unlock and access the digital wallet that the Bitcoins are stored in. If the Bitcoin was purchased in a centralized exchange like Coinbase, then you likely just need the username and password to that account. Good luck!

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Post is by: Own-Cartographer409 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qzt7zi/why_did_bitcoin_crash_etfs_options_global_macro/ Why did Bitcoin crash? Not panic. A leverage blow-up. This drop came from ETFs + options + global macro colliding. Hong Kong hedge funds loaded up on deep OTM call options on IBIT, funded by yen carry trade money, betting on a short-term BTC moon. What went wrong • BTC failed to rebound • Yen carry trade worsened → funding costs jumped • Funds also had silver exposure • Added leverage to recover losses • Margin calls hit • Forced liquidations followed • Large IBIT selling spilled into spot BTC Why no one saw it This wasn’t on-chain. It happened in spot ETFs + ETF options. Key difference vs the past CME options were cash-settled → no need to trade real BTC. ETF options are linked 1:1 to spot ETFs. The mechanical part • Deep OTM calls → low delta → MMs bought little IBIT (quiet on entry) • BTC dropped → delta → 0, gamma collapsed • MMs were stuck with excess IBIT • To stay delta-neutral, they mechanically sold into a falling market Quiet on the way up Violent on the way down Takeaway Opacity + leverage + ETF options is dangerous. This crash makes a strong case for putting ETFs and options on-chain. Just a theory, but cleaner than most narratives out there *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

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Post is by: zipl3r and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qzt2t3/long_term_crypto_portfolio_advice/ Hey guys, I’ve always followed crypto but only recently started putting money into it. I’m planning to invest about 10% of my monthly salary into a long term portfolio and hold it for the next 5 years. The coins I’m looking at right now are: • BTC – 25% • ETH – 25% • SOL – 35% • Render – 7.5% • Celestia – 7.5% Just wanted to hear some thoughts. Does this look balanced enough or should I adjust anything? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

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Post is by: zipl3r and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qzt1w3/long_term_crypto_portfolio_advice/ Hey guys, I’ve always followed crypto but only recently started putting money into it. I’m planning to invest about 10% of my monthly salary into a long term portfolio and hold it for the next 5 years. The coins I’m looking at right now are: • BTC – 30% • ETH – 30% • SOL – 25% • Render – 7.5% • Celestia – 7.5% Just wanted to hear some thoughts. Does this look balanced enough or should I adjust anything? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Horror-Sector7498

If you want a mix of stability + potential, I’d personally go with something like: * BTC – long-term anchor * ETH – strong utility + ecosystem * RYO – real-world payments, AI tools, and regulated growth You could split your funds evenly or weight more toward BTC/ETH for safety and sprinkle some into RYO for growth potential.

92sheran

In the end nobody really knows what will happen in the near future or longterm, 1 important news will happen sometime next month and that is: there is only 1 million BTC left to be mined! I personally believe right now is a good time to get in or DCA

Ltsmba

Its really interesting to see that 2009 all the way to 2017 now just shows up as a "flat line". All the pumps, crashes, and sideways trading of that entire 8 year period when looking back from today is just an uninteresting flat line (relative to how high BTC is now - 70x in 9 years). It will certainly take longer than another 8 years, but there will come a year when 2017 through 2026 will look exactly like that - just a flat line, and all of these crashes and pumps will be mostly forgotten (because of how high BTC will be relative to today).

BitcoinMD

If BTC is less than 5% of your portfolio then it’s always time to buy.

luckyknight216

Guy only cares about one thing: More people deported to his country by the US = more money for BTC.

elidevious

Talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome. So now Trump is responsible for Bitcoin’s 4-year-cycle that’s been going on for 17-years… Lame, uneducated, and boring take. This cycle, I bought BTC at $20k and sold above $110k. For Bitcoin focused investors, its was a very decent cycle.

JoeyJoJoJr99

It's always a good time to buy BTC!

zepol44

Investing involves risk. If the guy had known that BTC would be worth so much, would he have paid so many BTCs for two pizzas?

FatBottomGurley

If dude bought a thousand worth of BTC in 2013 then you are literally a damn near billionaire

No_South_9912

The fact BTC had 5 down months in a row with a 50% total drawdown doesn't help.

SirArthurPT

So basically someone burn 2.5 BTC, as even if "Satoshi is back", nobody can move coins from Genesis block.

F-machine

!tip 2.5 BTC

diwalost

Then send my 2.5 BTC back.

diwalost

But not 2.5 BTC. That is more than most people's networth.

Sage_of_spice

Do you guys think it'll still be cheap in two weeks, or should I take out a loan? Can I buy BTC on a credit card?

mtnmahogany

Got started with my first BTC back in 2014, when the price dropped after the famous MtGox debacle.  I must say it's been an interesting ride.  And that is all I really have to say.

Turbulent-Land-5664

I expect it - I am not a trader. I know I will see this and another before I might consider counting my money. Meanwhile the only number that matters is how much BTC I have,

Reach_Beyond

I’ll buy more immediately if it drops below 1750. If it stays under 2200 for the rest of this month I’ll probably buy more beginning of March. I’ve been swing trading/long term holding exclusively ETH/BTC and I’ve never changed my core thesis on these 2

anotherbadPAL

Everyone is talking about BTC going down. But i check my trezor and its still the same amount.

Fit_Aide_1706

Have you guys ever heard of Charlie Munger’s strategy? Basically waiting for the 200 week moving average of an asset and then when it dips or approaches close to that average, you ape into it. Going by that strategy, BTC’s 200 week MA would be at 58k.

Blockchainauditor

I did a lot of Coinbase Earn tasks and didn’t turn any of it into BTC. Each Earn came out at between $3 and $25 or do … now, with very few exceptions, they sit at pennies. It’s not a 100k to 20k story, but it illustrates there are few longer term winners here.

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Post is by: Adorable-Detective44 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qzp18q/i_built_a_free_fear_greed_index_that_tracks/ We all know Alternative.me's Crypto Fear & Greed Index. It's useful, but it only tells you one thing: is the crypto market scared or greedy? That's not enough. When BTC dumps, where does the money go? Bonds? Gold? When stocks rally, is crypto following or lagging behind? I built a tool that answers this. It calculates 4 independent Fear & Greed indices — Crypto, Stocks, Gold, and Bonds — each based on 5-7 real market indicators (volatility, momentum, volume trends, relative performance, etc.). But the most useful part is the **Market** **Sentiment** indicator: it compares risk-on assets (Stocks + Crypto) vs risk-off assets (Bonds + Gold) and shows you in real time if capital is rotating towards risk or towards safety. **Example:** if Crypto and Stocks indices are both in "Greed" but Gold and Bonds are also in "Greed"... that's weird. It means money is flowing everywhere — probably liquidity-driven. But if Crypto is in "Fear" while Gold is in "Extreme greed"? Classic flight to safety. It's free, no account needed, updated daily. All data comes from Yahoo Finance and FRED. No proprietary black box — the full methodology is public if you want to check it. Curious to hear if this is useful to anyone here, and what indicators you'd add for the crypto index specifically. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Inevitable-Dot6779

BTC and Chainlink