BTC

LiquidityCompass

Feels a bit overfit tbh. You’re mixing macro (Hormuz, oil, DXY) with a super tight short-term trade plan. If this was really a macro-driven move, it wouldn’t depend on a $1–2k range and a specific entry window. BTC holding here is interesting, but that alone isn’t “institutional support” — it can just as easily be a range before the next move. Right now it looks more like compression under resistance than a clear long setup.

Content_Researcher21

Been trying to get to that 1 BTC milestone for while now but man, the price keeps running away from me. Every time I save up enough fiat, Bitcoin decides to pump another 20%. At this rate I'll be DCA-ing in small amounts for next few years just to hit that target. My dog probably has better investment timing than me - he always knows exactly when to ask for treats.

TapThatYak

Regardless we know BTC is going to rocket. Whales move it. Op, what is this feeling you have? Not to knock it, but the market gets moved according to the mass money. My thoughts are, if you are legacy banks and investing institutions, is $70k good enough for a buy in? Decades ahead yes, but if you could manipulate price down to 45-50k that seems more attractive for everyone. The only thing that changes for me is I'll stack harder if it falls that low. It's disappointing we haven't gotten rate cuts. The whole US economy has been engineered to not implode up to mid terms. A good rate cut panic would definitely reset a lot of assets.

Realistic_Fee_00001

So are we actually getting this elusive fee market and the high fees BTC needs for its security?

suckyuhhmada

The Schwab move is probably the most meaningful signal in this whole post. Retail access through a trusted brokerage removes a ton of friction for people who want BTC exposure but aren't going to self-custody or manage a CEX account. The ETF recovery above $100B alongside BTC holding the $74-75K range while DeFi took the hit does feel like the market is communicating something about risk appetite right now. Whether that gap closes or keeps widening through the rest of the year is the actual question.

Salty_Sabuteur

Son, no one wants to use BTC for anything

piggleii

I've noticed that bears literally expect BTC to rally straight to new ATHs immediately without any pullback whatsoever. Any little retrace is celebrated hard with calls for 50k.

Unique_Caregiver_331

DO NOT trust random people on the internet with this. If anyone signs into your account, they can send the 50 BTC to themselves.

Triseult

Good luck. ETH has been pinned hard to BTC through arbitrage for a very long time. BTC would have to go up to $2M for ETH to hit these numbers.

HugeLarry

Currently, I try to maintain a target percentage of my portfolio in BTC, but I never sell to rebalance. I only buy to rebalance. So if I’m overweight in BTC, I buy other things instead. If BTC dips and I become underweight, I start buying it.

Stock-Air-8408

It's not common. But if you're part of this, you lose everything. And I guess many of us have hundreds of k's stored via BTC.

autoencoder1

Whatever happens NEVER share your seed phrase and also DO NOT transfer out to any other address. If anyone wants to know if the bitcoins were held in Swyftx account then blockchain explorer has all the details on when and how much was transferred. You can safely key in your PUBLIC BTC address (if you don’t know what this is then do not do anything unless you fully j sweat and the difference between public address and private key aka seed phrase)

MooseLoot

In the states, they let us use pre-tax dollars to contribute to retirement accounts (you get taxed on the withdrawals when you make them). It’s not about carrying forward any losses, it’s about getting to own what is currently $X of BTC instead of $X-taxes of BTC

NoResponse4u

It sounds like he did intend for you to inherit it, but by transferring it and not updating the will, it adds a grey area, which could lead to you not getting it or a portion of it. Based on the transfer there are two possibilities. Did he transfer the BTC to Self Custody/Ledger and give you the keys because you were the only person who understood how to access it, and protect it so gave you the keys, OR did he transfer it to Self Custoody and gift it to you while he was still alive? If he gifted it to you, then it is yours but there would be tax and reporting implications of that he may not have taken care of which may fall onnthe Executor of the estate (your aunt), also it sounds like she does not agree/believe this is the case so she can contest and take you to court about it and if there is no proof of the gift you could still loose it. If, on the other hand, he just gave you the details but retained ownership, then it is part of his estate and should go through probate. This is where you should talk with your aunt and her solocitor about her intent to honor the will and give you the BTC, or if she intends to claim it no longer matches the wording of the will and instead liquidate it to cash as a general estate asset and distribute it across all beneficiaries of the estate. In this case, you may end up having to get your own soliicitor to contest the will/estate administration to get what you believe should be yours. Either way, if you do not have an agreement, or the BTC amount is substantial or unknown, then it could lead to animosity or problems when it does become known. Only you can answer if you think that will be an issue. Additionally depending on the tax and inheritance laws in your country, if the BTC is disproportionately large compared to other assets and if there are inheritance taxes, what if they had to sell/use a substantial portion of the other estate assets to cover the taxes on the BTC you are Inheriting ... that may not be fair to others, and some BTC may need to be sold to cover that, it will all depend on the size of the state, local laws, and how may people are involved as any inheritor, creditor, or family member can possibly contest the will so best to work with the Executor vs against them if you can.

ConsistentRub934

Feels like a real split forming. BTC is becoming a more stable, institution-driven asset, while DeFi is still high-risk, high-innovation—and weekends like this show how fragile that side can be. Schwab entering just reinforces that trend: easier access, less complexity, more trust. Platforms like Nexo kind of sit in the middle—giving liquidity without needing to dive into full DeFi risk.

franks_dingle

Maybe that shit has been hacked? Have you even, ahemm.. checked to see if the BTC is still in there? I’ve heard of people, especially older people, getting scammed and losing their BTC.

hypebeesst

Sentiment + sites shifting towards AI/HPC (energy dependent but far higher margin) as opposed to BTC mining. BTC floor still dictated on price to mine it. If not profitable based on energy, machines turn off.

AutoModerator

Post is by: grandegi and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1sqe0qh/the_bitcoin_realized_powerlaw_envelope_rple_using/ Hi everyone, I’ve been working on a new empirical framework for Bitcoin's price action that I think some of you might find interesting. It’s called the **Realized Power Law Envelope (RPLE)**. While many are familiar with the standard "Power Law" models, this paper takes it a step further by integrating **Realized Price** into the scaling equation. # The Core Idea Standard power laws usually focus on **Time vs. Price**. The RPLE argues that the **Realized Price** (the average price at which all BTC last moved) provides a much more robust anchor for Bitcoin’s value than time alone. Essentially, it anchors the math to actual capital inflow rather than just the calendar. # Key Takeaways * **The Floor:** The model shows how Realized Price acts as a dynamic support that scales according to power-law principles. * **The Envelope:** It defines a clear "upper and lower bound" that has historically contained BTC price action with high statistical significance. * **Robustness:** By accounting for on-chain volume and cost-basis, this framework is significantly more resilient to market volatility than simple curve-fitting. I’m really looking for some feedback from the community. Does anchoring to Realized Price feel like a more logical step for long-term modeling? Or do you think institutional adoption (ETFs, etc.) will eventually break these power-law relationships entirely? I'll drop the link to the full paper in the comments below if anyone is interested. *TL;DR: A new math model that uses Realized Price to create a "Power Law Envelope" for BTC. No speculative 'moon' targets here—just empirical data and on-chain fundamentals* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

titain19

Imo, don't declare it. They don't know anything about it. This is one of the whole points of BTC, it's permissions-less. Also just transfer it to a new wallet you create just to be sure there isn't another backup somewhere.

AutoModerator

Post is by: jjj1jjj1 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/cybersecurity/comments/1sqdlmw/please_inform_57_formerly_leaked_btce_users_whos/ The gov. can't contact owners in the 100 000+ BTC forfeiture case No. 23-CR-239 (CKK) However the BTC-e database has leaked in October 2014 with 568 000 accounts (\~50%) The deposit addresses of the 57 BTC-e accounts were: `1JWPWZsYfuXP7XHTPTDE3SiuqDDUyBcFVw` `1E7XRpckv19r5ak1FmWBedYekh2peNHcme` `1AJWsoWkyfDhvkryVpbGPzbLKHCnDXpEp1` `15hQJXpeKJ4dwxdEcRCkck4wu8TNoapadX` `1LdMunBhzmAk8HG273wTa4yTyb2ZAwGv1s` `1DboNsKjZea4mbDbwpRVc9tCArJS672yzW` `1Ar3Y9VgfHTCg32MZzaVHzRLGH7xbCP1Gg` `18JAWHviWNEpM1DouUMnBq5m7PH5JmyV3A` `1FRwEMJHZYCCvXgeBzydMQ8qhpFJYDyYfW` `1MCdvLmrnEMw9UTM4x1nJ9fCqGM7vQowaT` `1Q79qwzyEnJLaiLXSmXQfimpMKoJhTiyM4` `1LXxAw5HEAoFXZx7mE3BFqNMu4MFRS8bsJ` `1M3XsAkEzSofMQA7aFPt6vN4x64FJC5PZe` `1PWYhVN2VzHwijHuHUkD63cAse3Gyk6AxS` `1DonwNENxVe1rsZKuv51R7ztG6cwhHTQwS` `1P8msCG57s1ui3bnNjkznkdmtyYLtKCwm` `16xq8xebgZE7szg5quGW5fqjFVxfe97MmF` `1L8MZq3C2hqnRjzWXnraMUpDMbf1xZDeeq` `16bQsKsAS3kNBDPzXEwFuZtSUv3X2HsQnn` `17ois3BU7iUfgKJUkEY1xehk5NbmSJqepv` `1AUh9YzrPqjvfcJDyBoKcmjiPCzSdFbwRb` `1JSho6seDfJeqWu5TtViTfJ6J7hwuA6Rs1` `1FfWoCVu6W7JxBUt5iNzvA1nkixEnJQFAw` `17EMK8xkBv789UnAtpzufyJGUEfv1iNRpF` `1CGWEAz8a5BNa9EknSpWSaC2ET8YQ4rFMX` `1N8p33bejeRGBKsw3eANEC6FFkyPQWx62j` `1PhML1iTPgHDYp5Af1gMcmaMBHp9hnENiD` `18S1KzsMAdCF8nnQiV2VYCsxbkfjDeLLa3` `17UVtTKxsGuxKVjZdGqxBWvcFhkv5chBNw` `1KTFKJLKbQNaKPY2nZUKGfKACCQ4TvYNWQ` `16FYTyjanfLDcLQshKrQ63zCiqCM2UYtDt` `19ZrGMVaJ19Fn1hdkwvYoTGVbyd4aqw9n6` `15w7XbeVm3vfNdEBuincBdi6r6njjexRTh` `1PyjxEMb2BdZ11cmA2sdURiVtYRgdE1B9R` `1DaSQUstSz6pqfHRwXPbJ8G7b3aNB6xsic` `1EgQ5wgPaGbFyzmRxFvd7TAxrfvAKKPUN7` `1z9ZqjN9kMMgejRJ5phsdNysKWPJ3kTon` `1M2ozRjDegCpqht32VVKwcucr1EtUcDt23` `1HHz3nWZMiz8WktuAqqZTngFRMrw1qf4db` `1JBeb2jCmXmwYi8EimutNh2fghCfMyZeVX` `16ZoJUG11WUYBjsMWvnsG1QP7FNfLj4RL6` `1912LbVDyWDwEh6C2iy1ywwSKtEjpxN2aY` `1BMbPNzieQhh6cGDdEmx9mpMF2ma4u8eXG` `1BDTkwKGrHz2F9LoA9Cn4uwyyRzVbiNZfA` `1MA1wScxYQkcEwJJgJrtNih3CdftgMZhy9` `1PNL84pm94JhLXDNhU5Mfc9vkRVbsDBbK4` `17vYAmZKUBpDyUg6tGnQtaFKLkZa4LZqaf` `1FPj2LSYyH5qRGrwc9whwBKE13Cc16WyPn` `1D9VhU89Eg8pPAKdYagkvsRWAG48a2Vk1T` `1LcUMzU7CLGjmS1N27W5PNLRHrttrdoy51` `14cbKfkJaKFXWjoNwWq6HD5UYFvs6EmGvD` `1BTeG4N7tQWvnwaNMfsT4Qqo5AKRvjiaLk` `199BUf3VhwCYexJrLTnPTrJso69BD3HuaE` `1MMLzEvSwbGEDFNrq1jiEUmtjN61Y1pkQ7` `1HXRqXBKCMTXRbQJbqEMN2g5UUmjnrj5gV` `1LT5P1eJMfMG3ATDuMmt9vHRqZWNnPJRzz` `1LKgc59XebEWKwoVBYNWVuCYT755KkXMAL` `1CpPin1R9tpwciweuQ5KMVWkJz7EH9uBNH` `1GqMc4EJzMzxKegaX1n4pHGPzXRBRi7fK5` `1G6EGT2FHkGSEsczDNbZsPbpA3ZSgYNC7b` `1FNMTghaUPWwnG3CXNLrcVrnAgyS3oA1bi` `1Kmyr5YT8cmChGWwKm65T7ruxFshPeuSfR` `1NFmgSbnwk4CTcWBfFuzmKRp5iZeNSPw7s` `13opZLdQ4tJuYHmzX7Qx1DnhcDQhdrzUwR` `1JfMynrPf2h1WuySshrDH2WFbf1K2WEymp` `1GBZa8h4s1B3y7RHCWWfYbu9YFw4D1yXSA` `1GiQdU3ooEJV7y9C1AwLEZQyMGbQQ5chzn` `13VYesCGDHSqAo6t3Zzcw2GmnNRUvGXf26` `1FJTBkVsTVcCbTgexLkD36mKJQZVhtVneZ` `1Cn9iUoKfK9wjKRn2wwWS5GnEBHRL46yik` `17cudaMgTcXoi2ssETVBrBy5GfPdCqDBkh` `1AjkEpKYKhu23xDzq559tkW56ky9pTDU5z` `1PyhF6R5YnPWRCVqNwL2eNnQR6RovYxi2D` `1MQH7QqfD8ns5zYzxGzKZi7H6cGDcRAUtZ` `1QHrprJD51vtZEgZpb1a3WctgfK5xFYKnn` `1H9GjjXU5Jj1aobvxumHTi8B9KtwYkxURP` Who could notify? "Leak Data Hoarders" (Journalists, Scientist, Spammers) ( Big Crypto exchanges; Former crypto exchanges; ) List of the 2016 exchanges and services (ranked by victims' usage) Poloniex, Bitstamp, OKCoin, BTC-e, LocalBitcoins Huobi, Xapo, Kraken, CoinJoinMess, Bittrex, BitPay, NitrogenSports-eu, Cex-io BitVC, Bitcoin-de, YoBit-net, Cryptsy, HaoBTC, BTCC, BX-in-th, Hashnest, BtcMarkets-net, Gatecoin, Purse-io, CloudBet, Cubits, AnxPro, Bitcurex, AlphaBayMarket, Luno, BTCC, Loanbase Bitbond, BTCJam, Bit-x, BitPay, BitBay-net, NucleusMarket, PrimeDice, BitAces-me, Bter, MasterXchange, CoinGaming-io, CoinJar, Cryptopay-me, FaucetBOX and Genesis-Mining *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

tylerthediaraj

DEX is the right call if you need non-custodial. Otherwise for BTC/USDT specifically CEX usually wins the cost math ，it's the deepest pair in crypto and spread is minimal. If CEX is on the table: BYDFi's BTC/USDT book is close to top-3 now, and multichain deposit means you can route BTC in as native or wrapped on BNB/Solana/Base/Arbitrum — whichever has cheapest fees that hour. Spot fee 0.10% base, which beats most DEX-aggregator + bridge combos once you factor in gas.

Creepy-Mastodon-4676

1. sorry for your lost 2. do not response to any DM, all of them are scammer try to steal BTC from you 3. keep your seedphrase safe, research in this sub about "boating accident"

LittleStinkerGuy

He technically gave you the BTC before he passed. It’s yours.

Villavillacoola

Tragic occurrence and my condolences but this comment sums it up. Consider this BTC found and not inherited. Even better if you lost it, it never existed, or you never found it. At best, maybe you know where it is; maybe not.

cryptoboywonder

Did your dad declare anywhere to the government that he owned BTC? If not then say nothing and do nothing. Governments are corrupt. They enrich themselves and their friends. So keep what is yours.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1sqcigm/btc_still_sitting_at_7475k_after_the_worst/ While DeFi experienced its worst weekend of the year; * $292 million drained from Kelp DAO, * $6.6 billion in TVL evaporating from Aave, * AAVE down 17%, emergency freezes across 9+ protocols), Bitcoin spent the weekend ranging quietly between $74,000 and $75,500. It didn't crash or spike. It just sat there. In previous cycles, a DeFi contagion event of this scale would have dragged BTC down as the market repriced systemic risk across the whole ecosystem. The fact that it didn't suggests something structural has shifted in who's actually holding Bitcoin, and on what infrastructure. The ETF holders, the Schwab clients, the institutional allocators, are [not exposed to rsETH or LayerZero bridges](https://news.bitcoin.com/zachxbt-flags-280m-kelpdao-exploit-hitting-ethereum-defi-lending-markets/). Their Bitcoin exposure is custodied at Coinbase and BNY Mellon, sitting in regulated trust structures that have zero connection to the DeFi composability stack that just blew up. Speaking of which, Charles Schwab formally launched Schwab Crypto this week, opening direct spot BTC and ETH trading to its clients at 75 basis points per trade. That's not cheap by crypto-native standards, but Schwab has 34 million active brokerage accounts. The product doesn't need to be price-competitive with Coinbase. It just needs to be convenient and trusted, and for that audience it is both. Bitcoin ETF total assets crossed back above $100 billion this week on the back of strong inflows, the first time since the bear market deepened in February. The week ending April 17 saw some of the heaviest single-day inflows of the year. The picture being painted is a market in genuine bifurcation. DeFi is running hot with innovation, yield, composability. And apparently, with hackers who can drain $292 million in 46 minutes. Bitcoin, increasingly wrapped in regulated ETF structures and accessible through traditional brokerages, is becoming something different. Less volatile relative to its own history, less correlated with DeFi drama, more insulated from smart contract risk. Whether that's good or bad for the soul of crypto is a separate debate. As a price dynamic heading into the next six months, it's probably bullish for BTC specifically. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Available_Win5204

Energy skyrocketed and BTC dropped.

Impressive_Tale5475

I would hold what you have, if not add to it and add BTC to the mix

Available_Win5204

One person mentioned BTC. Zero proof anyone ever transacted with it. Which makes sense, since it’s a terrible choice for transactions. 

Beginning_File7817

i sold 0.1 BTC for $500. i bought it back at around $10k

moldyjellybean

USO oil fell on Friday and BTC was pumping. Sunday night it’s pumping premarket but BTC is falling

moldyjellybean

How did a bankrupt shoe company stock go up 200 million in a day saying they were an AI company? How did big bank stocks go up right before the crash, its last pumps before the crash. Believer in BTC but on YouTube it’s still vids of BTC going to 80/90k etc. Just too much hope. I like to buy my btc when it’s forgotten for 6 months. Watching Carvana and SMCI two companies who are doing Enron accounting make it’s last fee pumps kind of has be not believing in this rally.

davidtakahashi

It's just liquidity, more money printing. Michael Saylor has a new tool (STRC) to attract his weird investors so that he can buy more BTC at these price levels. Tom Lee is getting his investors back into ETH. So, it's not surprising or unusual for BTC to reach 80k levels, even 90 because of the current buy pressure. But for sure we're NOT going to reach an ATH in 2026. That's absolutely absurd. We'll still find the bottom of this bear market in October.

kwijibokwijibo

Actually, you *can*debank BTC. It's the entire purpose of onchain analytics today. BTC is pseudonymous - not anonymou It's particularly easy in this case because we know whichever wallets Iran tells you to send to is associated with the regim

davidtakahashi

If you're a derivative trader, it doesn't really matter lol. You long the longs and short the shorts. You just have to figure out the catalysts, TA, etc. But if you're looking to buy BTC at the bottom for a spot bag or something then expect the bottom to be in October.

--TheCity--

Not to mention Iran stated the toll included crypto currency (BTC I think) payments as well as yuan.

Deep_Decision4441

What do you base that on? BTC could be used as an auditable form of regular settlement that's cheaper, faster, and more reliable that what financial institutions currently use. Literally, a world reserve currency, that operates closer to digital gold. If the lightning network ever takes off, that'll also enable very cheap/fast transactions. I see a best case scenario that's a lot more useful and functional than the one you see. But that's the bet, right? If everyone thought like I did, there'd already be adoption, and MSTR wouldn't have its potential upside.

jackofnac

How is inflation bullish for BTC when history has demonstrated the precise opposite?

Epictricker2025

Hundreds of trades in a minute. Well if I would want to make that happen on BTC I would need a bot and an exchange with zero fee. Swing trading is legit but I doubt it's enjoyable in crypto right now given the market situation. I do have a long on oil I just got in last Friday at 80$.

hypebeesst

BTC moves up and down with the price of energy

Infinite_Switch1412

I wish I could buy that pizza for that guy for 10 BTC... .. Take me back, 😂😂

Additional_Ability47

Has anyone seen that Instagram account where it shows a guy in every video depositing money into an ATM from his car, buying BTC on Robinhood and refreshing to show the balance? He would buy like $25 every day.

HorseBatteryStapleNo

My point is simply that you can create a VERY CONSERVATIVE mortage sinking fund that will easily outperform 2.6%. No reason to invade BTC or the rest of your portfolio! Being debt-free is smart; having easily serviced 2.6% debt with a multiyear cash cushion earning more than 2.6% is even smarter. Having said that, different folks have different priorities. You're already \*modestly\* set for life, and you're not wrong to zap 100% of debt if that's your comfort zone.

Main_Firefighter1593

Just start buying BTC, better to be spread

jackofnac

BTC cares about interest rates from central banks (a lot) and central banks care about inflation.

DPNX1000

This is genuinely significant. Iran using BTC for Hormuz transit isn't just a payment story — it's a signal that sanctioned states are actively building parallel financial rails outside SWIFT. The interesting question is whether this creates long-term demand pressure for BTC or just short-term narrative fuel. If more trade corridors start denominating settlement in crypto, the use case becomes structural rather than speculative. Either way, this is exactly the kind of real-world adoption that Bitcoin maximalists have been waiting for.

DePraelen

Iran has been taking payments for their toll on the strait in BTC. States and corporations have been buying large amounts of it.

MonoFields

Don't you think that, given the current market conditions, holding swing trades on BTC isn't exactly logical (since it's in a sideways trend)? And if you hold a swing trade on futures, just imagine how much funding you'll rack up.

LehighLuke

What if OP also has wrenches? Isn't anyone with a reasonably nice car and house a target for this?...as is the case for me, for example. I also have some BTC, I never broadcasted how much. But if someone comes on my property looking for trouble, that's what they'll find. Maybe OP also isn't scared

HorseBatteryStapleNo

Oh jeepers. You are paying 2.6% fixed??? Free money as was said earlier. No reason to sell BTC. The mortgage is your best wealth-building! Put money into short-term CDs etc & buy stock on the next major correction.

Reasonable_Fall_7808

What are you talking about? In what world does 0.5 ever mean 5%? You’re braindead which is why you only have 0.165 since 2021. (I mean 0.165 BTC, not 1.65% by the way)

No-Masterpiece2246

Careful with this sort of logic, it makes the BTC Maxi sheep anxious...

Unable_Illustrator_2

The mentality is this: you can do it too. BTC is legit. I support BTC.

Kzaanb

It is over collateralized borrowing, and the collateral is held in immutable smart contracts (Morpho Blue, which holds over $7bn). So nobody "holds" your BTC, it is held by the immutable smart contract and only you have access to it. The safety net is effectively the fact it is over collateralised. Better question is how the oracles work so you don't get liquidated randomly.

Unable_Illustrator_2

You make good points. If BTC tanks below $61k, Im down. However, 2 points I can make to answer you: 1) I have time on my side. This positions is not leveraged. I bought it with my hard earned money from my job. Therefore, I can sell it when I want to. 2) I don't need to sell because I do not need the $. The only way I need the money is if I get sick, or my wife does. However, if I get sick, I will just choose to die. If my wife gets sick, then yes, I will sell all my BTC to pay for her health. Outside of that, Im not selling.

Kzaanb

Yeah I think this is the holy grail of how we should use our BTC, if you can spend against it in real time, and effectively be long BTC and short FIAT, this is the perfect solution.

HorseBatteryStapleNo

Not quite what I was saying. If you sold every tranche at $90k-ish, you’re not being sufficiently rewarded for the risk. You could sell all now, pay taxes, and at least reduce the carrying cost of your mortgage. The monthly debt service would remain unchanged, but interest expense would drop. Agree with your implicit thesis that this would be unwise. Taxes are the reason “hold” exists between “buy” and “sell”. I am not a BTC maximalist. But I think that BTC making it to $250K long before you mortgage is paid off is a reasonable bet. No reason to bet the house on that. No reason to be willing to sell every tranche at $90K, either.

MotoMola

You're either selling the pump or bagging the dump. There is no end game anymore. Institutions utilize BTC for short term gain into more secure and long term investments. Which is why every pump gets sold off before Monday's market open.

Drumroll-PH

BTC exit plans tend to break not because of taxes or intent, but because price and liquidity don’t move in a smooth, predictable way. Selling gradually is a solid way to reduce timing risk, but anchoring to a fixed minimum price can create gaps where you either don’t sell at all or end up reacting emotionally later. The key variable is flexibility, not the exact target.

FunWithSkooma

I wonder what happens when the private keys of ETFs exchanges gets hacked. Seriously, even if they have 69 multisign keys, in the end, it still a normal private key, if it gets leaked in a compromised system, it done, the hacker has the private key, it all about loading it in a wallet and sending the funds to another wallet. Like guys, lets get real, with fiat, it much impossible to just hack into a bank and not have the feds tracing the money to the guy, but with BTC or any crypto, it a matter of cleaned the bitcoins using Liquid Networks, Lightning Channels and Spark, it gone forever, and so is your Bitcoin. Bitcoin was not made for this kinda of custody.

richpinky3

BTC doesn’t give discounts, it only gives regrets to those who are too greedy to buy.

Drumroll-PH

Most people accumulate gradually rather than all at once, so holdings range anywhere from small fractions to multiple BTC depending on the person. The more useful framing is not how much is standard, but how much you are comfortable holding in a volatile asset relative to your overall finances. In terms of exchanges, they are generally fine for smaller, active amounts, but long term holdings are usually moved off once they become meaningful to you.

richpinky3

0.5 BTC is the ultimate flex. You’re halfway to being a whole-coiner legend!

Saffuran

BTC ETH SOL are about where I'm comfortable for "safer" assets in the space. Others like LINK and AVAX are higher up the risk curve but I see utility/value in them also.

suckyuhhmada

Fear at 27 with BTC still holding $75K is genuinely one of the more interesting setups I've seen. Usually when fear spikes this hard, price is near a local bottom. The fact that it isn't — and that on-chain accumulation is quietly happening — suggests the selling exhaustion hasn't flipped into distribution yet. Watching for whether this translates into a squeeze or just a slow grind sideways.

TheresNoSecondBest

>Do you all think I can slowly offload all my BTC over the course of next 6-7 years $40k per sale transaction, netting at least $250k overall? According to [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/mDvbAU21yF), if you stick to only $40k per year, there's 99% chance you'll never run out of bitcoin.

VortexNode

0.5 BTC is a dream for many, especially after 5 years of staying strong through all the dips. Massive respect for moving it to cold storage (Trezor) immediately. This is the way! Congrats on joining the 21 million club (well, the 42 million club for now)!

AutoModerator

Post is by: TrenVantage and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/TrenVantage/comments/1sq0tfu/bitcoin_to_target_new_ath_technical_analysis/ Quick post on the potential of BTC to push towards new ATHs. This post is only taking a look at the Monthly chart from a macro perspective. The concept is simple, holding the move that formed the previous ATH sets them up to form a new ATH. This is based on general trend analysis. **Concept:** The longer bitcoin can hold this current range above 58k, the chances increase for pushing towards new highs.  When we think about "the move that formed the high" we see something like this...  Realistically it might look more like this if you want to draw each trend individually.  The concept here remains the same. Holding this move between 71k and 58k sets BTC up to take out its current ATH and form a new higher high. I think it helps to look at these as two different trends within a larger trend  Essentially the logic would be, if bitcoin can continue to hang on and gain true upwards momentum, without seeing a significant rejection in the higher (orange) trend. Then the push for new ATH becomes easier. Bouncing off the levels and replaying them is fine, what they dont want is to see 82 slap them down significantly and lost the subsequent weekly levels being played on lower timeframes. **Monthly Steps:** 1. The first step in a push towards new ATH is to regain the trend at 71k. This was a significant monthly that they lost back in Feb. The start for a push up begins with April closing above 71k. 2. The second step is 82k. This will be the first real test for BTC going back to new highs. If they can push above 82k, I would suspect the run up to 103k happens very quickly. 3. Once 103k is regained on the monthly timeframe, new highs will be inevitable. 4. Target 165k  **Taking a look at the Weekly:** We can see they are currently playing this significant weekly level of 78k. This was the final weekly support for the trend that carried them to the current ATH. A reaction here is expected  Due to how markets work, seeing a rejection at 78 is not bad until they go on to lost both 72k and 65k again. If we see them bounce off 65k then 82 truly becomes the short term target. Gaining 82 sets them up to target 103 and gaining 103 sets them up to target all time highs.  Weekly progression has them targeting 93k if they can get past 78k. Holding 72 and 65 sets them up to this. 82k monthly is in the way so would expect a reaction but gaining that shows true potential to continue higher. They are currently forming this W pattern which is bullish in nature. Holding 72, 70 and 65 on a retest sets them up to continue higher. **Indicators:** The indicator used in this analysis is called TrenVantage TRADER. It automatically plots the trends as well as key support and resistance levels. This is an outlook on BTC forming new ATH and the potential it currently has. Yes there is downside risk, yes it can go either way. However the concept is thus. As long as BTC can hold this move that formed the current ATH, new ATHs are in play. For reference here is a chart showing the downside risk on BTC  Happy to hear your thoughts, comments, questions, and analysis in the comments section! Cheers! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

ieatvegans

If it helps, stocks are gonna dump on Monday. Of course, BTC will further dump, but still.

moonRekt

Glad I sold all my AAVE for my Audi a couple months ago. Spending money on cars is stupid but sometimes not as stupid as HODLing. Really only trusting BTC and ETH right now

theplainuser

I’d say don’t rush into it expecting quick profits, most people lose at the beginning. It helped me to just focus on BTC/ETH at first instead of jumping into random alts, and spend time understanding how the market moves. Also, staring at charts all day gets exhausting really fast. I trade on 15m using pivot + RSI, and at some point I ended up making a small alert bot for myself just to stay a bit more disciplined. Still learning myself, but focusing on risk management and keeping things simple helped way more than trying to learn everything at once.

theplainuser

I’d say don’t try to watch charts all day, it gets exhausting really fast. Personally I found it easier to focus on BTC/ETH at the beginning instead of jumping into random alts. I trade on 15m using pivot + RSI, and at some point I got tired of constantly checking charts, so I made a small bot that alerts me near levels. Still testing it, but it helped me stay more disciplined and not overtrade.

Ge_Yo

Same here. I think BTC’s evolution will include ways to earn from it without wrapping or changing its core properties. Would you consider staking it or using it in DeFi?

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Saylor has put himself in a position where he needs to raise an every increasing amount of capital or his whole position collapses. I called it the treadmill of doom over a year ago. The creation of STRC and the massive amount of issuance is likely the final speed of the treadmill before he falls off. It’s never the first 50 Billion of capital raised that’s the problem, it’s the specter of having to raise another 50 Billion more and then 100 Billion after that to keep things going that becomes the problem. They owe 1.2 Billion a year in dividends, like 1.4 Billion after this past week. They only raised a little over 20 Billion this past year, meaning over 5% of their on going capital raises are earmarked for dividends only, not adding more BTC. A few more months of this level of STRC issuance and that might reach over 10%. This is where the problem starts. They must continually accelerate how much capital they raise just to keep up with the ever increasing dividend obligations. And at some point the market isn’t gonna be there for them to do that. And then they are screwed. Also keep in mind there are only 21 million Bitcoin, and MSTR already owns 800k of them after this week. That’s 4%. They started this journey 5 and a half years ago, and the way exponentials work, they are actually closer to the end of their Bitcoin journey than they are to the beginning of it. It will inevitably implode, the only question is how big do they get before that happens. Is that 10% of all Bitcoin? 15, 20%? The more they buy, the more illiquid it becomes and the more likely they are the only real buyers.

EstimateIll4262

I just could fnd where to out address in. On CDC. i found it. but ran in to Authenticator issue since I changed phones. So instead of resetting the 2fa. and maybe locking my CDC account. I just bought BTC on OKX exchange. and when it clears for transfer/selling(they claim 7 days) I will send to the renewal address. and hope for the best.

HorseBatteryStapleNo

I like your plan. My only issue is that selling at $90K seems to leave money on the table vs. the real risk you are still taking on. Keep in mind that in the US, selling in the 0% tax rate will generally move other income from the 12% to the 22% bracket (so not as free as it seems). If you are in the 22% bracket and the sale moves you to the 24% bracket, not as big a deal, even with the 3.8% NIIT. You could divide 3 BTC into annual tranches yielding $40,000 each: willing to sell at 90K, 120K, 150K etc. In some years, you might not sell at all; in bull market years, you might sell two tranches, taxes be damned. This strikes a middle ground between HODL and your pragmatic financial goal.

BlackDog990

Yeah I mean honestly there is virtually no reason to pay that down quickly. It's as close to free money as you're ever going to get for your whole life (no, we're not gonna see rates that low again absent REALLY bad news for global economy.) Whether you were talking about selling stock or BTC ky advise would be to let that balance ride and grow wealth in other vehicles. Heck you could dump a pile of cash in an online savings account and basically wash the 2.6% rate. Just not a wise move if you're looking to maximize your wealth, mostly an emotional "i dont have a mortgage!" Vibe.

EstimateIll4262

Normally i would agree. But i dont need to understand how the ibner working are. Just to pay a little $95 payment. But it seems some of you feel that way. And of thats what it takes to send some BTC for payment. BTC will never be a mainstream payment source

rawfuelinjection

Because BTC not dead

Skotland85

The missing value here is what is your financing rate ? If you have a mortgage rate of around 3% - I would not sell an appreciating asset to pay off an asset that likely will not appreciate anywhere close to 1 BTC over long run. When 1 BtC is the price of your remaining loan balance - then sell that to pay off your mortgage.

Ok_Rent_2937

My portfolio is $4M, BTC is only about 5-6% of it. I am not dependent on BTC hitting $1M to be able to retire. In other words, I don’t need a home run, singles will do nicely

DwightsShirtGuy

If that’s what works for you I have no argument against that. For me, I’d rather just pay off the loan. That interest is costing you more and more over time. BTC returns are unpredictable, and add capital gains into the mix. I’d be curious to see a mortgage statement (balance remaining, interest rate, amortization table) and run a comparison of taking the money you plan on using/have used to buy BTC, including CGT, compared using that money to pay down the loan. If it’s close, I’d ditch the risk and tax burden. But everyone has a different situation.

rodmandirect

You can, though. Today, you could borrow about $3500 at an 11% exchange rate, you’d be paying about $1.10 per day for the privilege of having that loan, until you pay it back. If the value of BTC goes up substantially, you’ll get some of that BTC back. If it goes way down, like say below $35,000, and you can’t pay that loan back, and you have no more BTC to put in it to make up, you’ll get liquidated.

wigglytail

No! It's great they are doing this ( i don't know anything about this service but the more BTC has practical use the better) and you're great for trying to figure it out. I don't know CDC, I assume it's some sort of exchange? If you can make payments or "withdraw" to a wallet do that either directly to this subscription or to a private wallet if you have one (if not I would recommend BlueWallet for you it's easy and safe and it will get the job done). If you cannot, try to buy some BTC on an exchange that does do this, or from a peer2peer platform like peach ( I buy my BTC this way ), which you will still need a private wallet for. And as always: Don't trust, verify.

Ok_Rent_2937

I am not interested in taking the risk of borrowing against any volatile asset, be it Bitcoin or stocks. I had a clear plan of accumulating BTC, and then selling at high price down the road to help pay my house loan faster, and that’s the plan I wish to stick to with consistency

forsenbois21

Its a solid one, but based on the cycle theory, I don't think we'll see BTC above 85k this year. Until next year.

Keats852

I would diversify into Bitcoin spot ETFs, MSTR (which has traded above Premium), and then maybe do BITX starting 2.5 years from now, when BTC is back to 70k (from the expected pullback, if you believe in the cycle).

EstimateIll4262

if i send lets say .00127 BTC. Will the receiver receive that exact amount? Or will my fee be taken out of that? of does my fee get paid for on my end(my account) I ask because I dont want to send more then I have to pay for this $95 renewal

EstimateIll4262

bc1qymwm............................. Looks like a BTC address. I just dont know what it asks for SATS?? Even the QR code has a BTC symbol in the center.

EstimateIll4262

I dont know why the renewal place is even asking for SATS. The QR code is clearly BTC.

EstimateIll4262

EXACTLY!!!! I have held crypto for 5 years. just buy and sell. and stake. I have never used it to pay. and now that I tried, its not so easy. Its much more clear from the replies here and Google AI. but the renewal just assumed anyone would understand how to do it. Which clearly I didnt. BTC will never be mainstream payment source. Just buy and hold and make sure to sell when it reaches a point you are satisfied with. Thats what I plan to do with mine.

justcurious3287

Don’t overthink. Overthinking is the enemy of a crypto investor. Your job is to buy and hold as much BTC as you can. Worry about nothing else.

Kayfabe_Everywhere

We are so early on bitcoin that even a small DCA over time will put you in a position that you never have to sell. To get to fiat you'll probably lend BTC, collect interest in BTC, sell that BTC for fiat and never touch your principle. If you wait long enough there's a strong likelihood there will be no fiat. Everything will just be priced in SATs or a crypto currency pegged to the SAT. Paying for things will be even easier at that point because you don't have to deal with selling a crypto asset and paying taxes. You'll just transact everything directly in the crypto universe.

AlgonikHQ

The friction vs fuel distinction is a good reframe, that’s a cleaner way to communicate the setup and more honest about what the signal actually implies for sizing. On ETH/BTC as a leading indicator, I haven’t backtested it formally across full cycles, I use it more as a regime filter than an entry signal. The way I’ve thought about it: when the ratio is in a sustained downtrend it tells you capital is rotating into BTC dominance, and alt setups have a much lower completion rate in that regime regardless of local technicals. When the ratio turns and holds a higher low it signals the rotation is starting, and the same technical setups that fail in the downtrend regime start completing. The lead time question is the hard part. Anecdotally it’s been anywhere from a few days to 2-3 weeks before price follows in past cycles, which makes it useful as a filter but not a timing tool. I haven’t found a reliable way to tighten the confirmation window beyond waiting for a second higher low on the ratio. The 0.0308 level you’re watching, is that a structural support from earlier in the 2026 range or a derived level from the model? Curious whether it’s a price memory level or something calculated.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

EstimateIll4262

well I will see in 7 days. if OKX works. I will leave the funds in Kraken just in case. I will leave my CDC BTC alone.

EstimateIll4262

YES!!! CDC fees are stupid. I just checked on OKX exchange. To send that amount of BTC. the fee is 0.000015 BTC

MoverWhoStacksSats

lol, I get it I’m the new guy with no history but truth is I’m just trying to figure out Reddit. Just obviously started, thought I would just give some genuine encouragement to that person before I ran out the door to church. But what ever you think of me or my original comment the fact is the fact getting .5 BTC is worth celebrating for that person.

PeacefulNA

Thanks! The invalidation criteria point is exactly why I built the system the way I did. Most calls skip that part because it forces accountability. On the funding level, fair pushback, and you're right. -0.000243 is mild negative, not extreme. The squeeze setup is there but it's not a coiled spring. I'd frame it less as "violent squeeze incoming" and more as "shorts aren't getting paid enough to hold through a move higher", the friction is low rather than the fuel being high. Subtle but meaningful difference in how I'm sizing the position. The ETH/BTC ratio point I fully agree with. I have it in the model but I've probably underweighted it in how I communicated the thesis here. If BTC dominance keeps climbing, that's my earliest warning before price confirms you named the right tripwire. I'm watching 0.0308 as the line. If it breaks down from here rather than turning, the whole rotation narrative collapses regardless of what the technicals say locally. On the backtest question, honest answer: I can't give you a clean historical accuracy number on 5/5 window agreement setups specifically. The model is less than 90 days old and the confluence has only appeared a handful of times in that window. What I can say is that in those instances, the directional call was correct but the magnitude varied significantly, which is consistent with "the direction is readable, the size of the move isn't." The 68% confidence reflects that uncertainty; it's not a number I'd round up to "probably works." If you've backtested ETH/BTC ratio turns as a leading indicator across cycles I'd genuinely be interested in how you've operationalized it. Entry signal, confirmation window, how long the lead time typically is before price follows.

EstimateIll4262

I have such a small amount of BTC. I never bothered to move to a hardware wallet

RetiredAvocado

You'd be paying 0.0002 to 0.0004 BTC in fees for each send out from that exchange. That's a ridiculously high fee. That's one more reason not to use exchange as a wallet.