BTC

Flat_Cheetah_1567

### Botsfolio: AI vs. 1,076 human crypto traders My initial assessment: this is an interesting benchmark, but it does not yet prove that Botsfolio has a durable trading edge. Its most important finding is that a rules-based, unleveraged BTC/ETH strategy may outperform highly leveraged retail traders primarily through risk control, disciplined execution, and avoiding catastrophic losses. The article was published October 16, 2026, and compares Botsfolio's strategy against 1,076 real Hyperliquid trader accounts using matching historical dates. Crucially, the AI results are backtested, not the results of 1,076 live, capital-matched AI accounts. ### 1\. The headline results Botsfolio's published benchmark · May 2024–October 2026 AI windows ending profitable ### 88.6% Human traders: 31.4% Median AI worst drawdown ### 18.3% Human traders: 89.8% AI beat humans on return ### 78.4% 844 of 1,076 accounts Beat AI on return and drawdown ### 2.4% 26 human traders Source: [Botsfolio's published benchmark](https://botsfolio.com/blog/ai-vs-human-traders?utm_source=chatgpt.com). These are the company's reported results, not independently reproduced findings. The distinction that matters most is that the AI traded spot BTC and ETH without leverage, whereas the human sample primarily consisted of leveraged crypto traders trading a broader range of assets. This is a comparison of two different risk-taking approaches, not a controlled experiment isolating the benefit of AI. ### 2\. The most important finding is hidden in their methodology The follow-up methodology page is more informative than the headline article because it discloses tests the strategy failed. Historical drawdown control The company reports that the BTC/ETH Cycle Trader had a median annualized return of 33.6% across monthly starting windows since 2018, versus 24.1% for holding the same assets, with lower drawdowns. Some out-of-sample evidence The company reports holdout tests using settings selected before the evaluation periods. It also reports tests on coins not used to design the strategy. These are useful tests, although they remain company-produced results. The timing edge remains unproven The strategy failed its preregistered random-timing tests for both BTC/ETH and the unseen-coin group. That is material: reducing exposure during bad markets can produce attractive drawdown statistics without establishing that the entry and exit timing itself has predictive value. Live forward validation is still short The company says its current rules were fixed on October 8, 2026, and its live portfolio results are paper-traded. It plans to wait for 180 days of live results before assigning a live grade. The distinction is fundamental: a strategy can be an excellent risk-management system without possessing a statistically robust source of alpha. ### 3\. What I would challenge before trusting the results | Audit question | Why it matters | | ---------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Does the strategy beat buy-and-hold after all costs? | The correct baseline is holding the same assets over identical periods. | | Does it beat randomized timing rules? | Tests whether the signal adds value beyond exposure management and luck. | | Are the drawdowns measured from intraday equity? | Weekly snapshots can miss substantial losses between observations. | | Are the rules frozen before testing? | Prevents repeated tuning against the evaluation sample. | | Are trades executable at the assumed prices? | Paper trading does not establish real fill quality, market impact or slippage. | | Does it work across distinct market regimes? | A strategy optimized for a weak BTC/ETH period may underperform in a sustained bull market. | | Are results independently reproducible? | A published report is not a substitute for source data, code and independently calculated metrics. | Botsfolio itself acknowledges that weekly drawdown measurements miss intraweek losses, that some design-coin history is in-sample, and that the timing tests failed. ### 4\. What this means for our trading systems The useful takeaway is not to copy Botsfolio's strategy. It is to adopt the strongest parts of its research protocol and apply them to our existing components. A. Separate alpha from risk control Test the signal independently from position sizing, exposure reduction and stop logic. Measure the incremental return attributable to each component, as well as the drawdown reduction and turnover cost. B. Run a matched-baseline gauntlet Compare every candidate against buy-and-hold, simple trend filters, fixed-exposure controls and randomized-timing controls. Match dates, capital, assets, fees, slippage and execution assumptions. C. Measure economic value, not just win rate Prioritize net expectancy, risk-adjusted return, maximum drawdown, tail losses, exposure-adjusted performance and stability across out-of-sample regimes. A high percentage of profitable windows is not enough. D. Reproduce before accepting Obtain the published trade history and rules, independently reconstruct the equity curves, verify fees and timestamp alignment, and rerun the preregistered tests. Treat discrepancies as research findings rather than papering over them. ### My verdict Worth investigating; not yet proven as a deployable source of alpha. The strongest claim supported by the article is that a disciplined, unleveraged BTC/ETH strategy appears to have managed historical risk better than a sample of leveraged retail traders. That is useful evidence for systematic risk management, but it does not establish that AI itself caused the advantage or that the strategy will retain it prospectively. For our own research, I would prioritize the random-timing failure. If the strategy cannot demonstrate that its timing rules outperform simple controls, the appropriate conclusion is to retain any demonstrably valuable exposure-management component and reject unsupported alpha claims. One limitation: I have reviewed the published methodology and claims, not independently downloaded and rerun the underlying trades.

Feralz2

hashrate is not guaranteed, you think this is some kind of magic? lol, if people stop mining BTC because the price is dumping, the hashrate would absolute tank, just like it has tanked before.

VettaQ

Nice instinct replicating on a held-out period - that is the part most of these posts skip. The next thing to nail down is the decomposition: define 'coin-specific' as the residual after removing the coin's beta to BTC (or your market factor), otherwise a market-wide dump gets labeled idiosyncratic and inflates the effect. Then condition on the residual drop percentile and compare forward returns against matched coins in the same liquidity bucket that did not drop. Two traps to check. Survivorship: if your universe excludes coins that later delisted or died, the 'keeps falling for a week' path is understated, because the worst cases left the sample. And reporting: show the hit rate and the tail, not just the average path - the interesting difference versus equities is probably in the left tail, since crypto has no designated liquidity provider obligated to absorb a one-sided book, and a perp funding cascade can keep forcing sellers in after the initial move.

lobhater

Tell me you just bought BTC for the first time without telling me you just bought BTC for the first time

VettaQ

Attribution is the hard part here, not the observation. Before pinning anything on the ETFs you need a counterfactual: run the same exceedance count on an asset that did not get an ETF in the same window, and on BTC over placebo dates away from the launch. If the drop in tail hours shows up everywhere, it is a regime change, not an ETF effect. Second, 'six-sigma' is estimator-dependent: with fat-tailed hourly returns, a Gaussian sigma moves just because vol clustering changed. Re-count with a robust scale (median absolute deviation, or a fixed multiple of trailing realized vol) and see if the result survives. Third, use an actual structural break test (Bai-Perron) instead of eyeballing the ETF date - if the estimated break does not land near the launch, the story weakens a lot. And you are right about volume: drying up is a state, not a signal. It widens the distribution of the next move without tilting its direction.

Volvemi

Not just BTC. Let’s spend some money!

LikSaSkejtom

Yeah, like a new fork, or payment method in under 5 seconds, or accepting BTC as main asset for trading of energy. Its some random exchange and a graph.

No_Weather9887

Yeah, I've been using Oobit for everyday payments and it's been pretty convenient so far. Still holding my BTC though lol, I'd rather spend stablecoins

baz0oka_Bob

BTC has not been a problem for a while now, literally every tx is tracked by US and EU government people.

EthanDavis63

Fiat system crashing, banks failing, inflation hitting double digits, and BTC HODLers are just chilling having their morning espresso.

ModestlyHazed

What do you mean by "Global index"? And measured in what currency? There are several different global indexes. But it sounds like you are looking at a specific index fund, if so you must take currency effects in to account, when comparing nominal return. Especially if you're comparing it to other assets. The MSCI World, which I referred to, is the index that the most global index funds track. And if you look at the MSCI World from janauary 2022 - january 2026 in US dollars, it has returned approx 35%, and closer to 57% if you stretch it to august 2026. |2026 (to Aug 31)|\+13.10| |:-|:-| |2025|\+21.09| |2024|\+18.67| |2023|\+23.79| |2022|\-18.14| Wether BTC is a better investment than other assets is of course impossible to say. Past returns are no guarantee for future returns and that goes for global index funds as well as BTC. Personally I have around 10% of my portfolio in BTC. My reasoning is basically: The world is getting more and more digital = The worlds biggest digital asset will be in demand in the future.

Internal-Map-4658

I do similar thing but with smaller reserve, like 15% maybe. The 25% sitting on side feels little too much for me cause what if BTC just runs up and never dips more than 2-3% in that 12 weeks? Then you lost some gains on that quarter of your money But I get the psychology, having that safety net makes you sleep better at night and that has its own value. Maybe you can decide some rules for when to use the reserve, like if price drop 5% you put half of it in, if drop 10% you go all in. Without rules is easy to just keep waiting for perfect dip that never comes I started my DCA 3 years ago and my biggest mistake was trying to time too much, now I just set it and forget it

BrendanRodgersss

I'd be careful with the assumption that illicit economic activity automatically translates into lasting demand for BTC. Transaction volume isn't the same as people holding Bitcoin. If someone receives BTC and immediately converts it back to fiat or stablecoins, that has very different implications from accumulating it as savings. Blockchain-analysis reports might give you some estimates, but they're generally measuring detectable activity, not the entire illicit economy.

xcrunner2414

Depends how much BTC we’re talking about. 1 whole BTC, or much less? The closer it is to a whole BTC, or more, the sooner I would suggest dice throws to generate a seed phrase and all address-generation and signing should be performed by a Seed Signer device. If we’re talking about 0.1 BTC, or less, then I would just put it on a hot wallet app, like Blue Wallet or even Strike.

VivaHollanda

Understood. I know nobody can stop BTC transactions. Governments can however effectively block it's citizens from using it in normal day-to-day transactions, not much different from blocking a bank account. 

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Post is by: Huge_Position890 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/algotradingcrypto/comments/1xaq5ea/since_the_spot_etfs_bitcoins_6sigma_hours_are_3x/ \- \*\*Shape changed.\*\* On hourly BTC, \*after removing volatility\*, extreme moves became rarer after the January 2024 spot ETFs: 4σ hours \~1.7x rarer, 6σ hours \~2.8x rarer. The tail index rose from \~2.3–2.4 to \~2.8–2.9 (z 5–6.6, pre-registered, survived a planted-effect check). \- \*\*But tails breathe.\*\* The tail was just as thin in 2020–21 and fat again in 2022–23. The latest thin phase lines up with the ETF era. One event, one asset: I can't call it causal. \- \*\*Volume explains how fat the tails are, not why they thinned.\*\* Scaling returns by volume makes tails much thinner overall, but the post-ETF change stays the same size. \- \*\*Drying volume:\*\* the next day is calmer (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%). But that's just calm continuing. It adds nothing beyond what a volatility model already knows. Sharp moves after drying volume went down 52.7% of the time vs 54.3% on other days. A 10-point directional edge is ruled out. **Why I looked again** Last week I posted that crypto's tails are fat in every window and swing no more than noise. I also saw a hint of a slow drift, but I found it after looking at the chart and it didn't clear my bar (SNR 2.5 vs 3). My co-researcher's bet this time was "the ETFs changed the shape of the tail." Mine was "no, they changed volatility, not the shape" (50%). Both were written down before the data was touched. **Setup** \- \*\*Data:\*\* BTCUSDT spot, hourly, Binance, Aug 2017 – Sep 2026. That's 79,807 hours: 55,951 before 11 Jan 2024 and 23,856 after. \- \*\*Cleaning:\*\* \- Remove the weekday × hour pattern, separately before and after the ETFs. US trading hours matter more now, and that is not a tail shape. \- Divide each hour by a GJR-GARCH-t volatility estimate. What's left is the \*\*shape\*\*: how surprising a move is \*given\* current volatility. \- \*\*Measure:\*\* Hill tail index on the top 5% of each tail, before vs after. Higher α = thinner tail. \- \*\*Null:\*\* 200 simulated paths from the fitted model with a \*constant\* tail, each re-estimated the same way. Simulated paths that blew up were filtered out. \- \*\*Checks before looking at the real result:\*\* \- no false alarms when nothing changes (0–1%); \- a planted tail change was caught (100%); \- a planted \*volatility-only\* change was not mistaken for a shape change (0–3%). \*\*Power note.\*\* I first tried daily BTC and a pooled cross-section of \~400 coins. On simulated data, a sizeable tail change was caught only 6–12% (daily) and 30% (pooled) of the time. Pooling coins doesn't help much because crashes hit all coins on the same days. Hourly data was the first design with enough power, so I used it. **Result 1: the shape changed** | | before ETFs | after ETFs | z | | left tail (drops), α | 2.29 | 2.82 | 5.3 | | right tail (rises), α | 2.42 | 2.87 | 6.6 |  \- \*\*Robust to tail size:\*\* the same result holds using the top 2.5% or 10% instead of 5% (z 5.3–6.1). \- \*\*Fitted separately:\*\* fitting the volatility model separately on each period gives the same picture. Volatility fell \~43%, and the tail parameter rose from 3.4 to 4.3. So it's not only "BTC got calmer." Given the calm, big surprises got rarer. My co-researcher was right; I was wrong. **Result 2: but the tail breathes**  \- \*\*2018–19:\*\* fat. \*\*2020–21:\*\* thin, about as thin as now. \*\*2022 to early 2023:\*\* fat again (FTX era). \*\*2024 onward:\*\* thin. \- \*\*The latest thin phase lines up with the ETFs.\*\* In the last window that ends before the ETFs, the tail index was still \~2.2. It rises through 2024. \- \*\*Why I can't call it causal:\*\* \- It's one event, on one asset. \- The tail has moved like this before, without ETFs. \- Other things changed in 2024 too (halving, market structure). \- A test of "is the ETF date special" also ran into this. Split points before the ETFs look like breaks too, because their "after" segment contains the ETF era. So that test can't separate the ETFs from a slow regime change. **Result 3: what about volume?** \*\*A data trap first.\*\* Binance's zero-fee BTC period inflated BTCUSDT volume 2–4x from July 2022 to March 2023. It went from $231B in March 2023 to $47B in April. Anyone using Binance BTC volume across 2022–23 should cut that window. I did. \*\*Does volume explain the tail?\*\* The mixture-of-distributions idea (Clark 1973) says returns look fat-tailed because information flow (volume) varies. So I scaled each hour by its relative volume. \- \*\*The level, partly yes.\*\* The tail index jumps from 2.3 to 3.8; volume does explain a lot of \*how\* fat the tails are. \- \*\*The ETF-era change, no.\*\* It is the same size with or without volume scaling (+22%/+18% vs +20%/+15%). So whatever thinned the tails, it isn't the \*amount\* of trading. Book depth or participant mix are candidates I can't test before the ETFs; I only started collecting depth in 2026. **Result 4: drying volume and the next move** "Volume dries up before the big move" is common folklore. I defined "drying" as the last 24h volume being below 60% of its 30-day median: 394 such days vs 2,578 others.  \*\*Calmer? Yes, in plain terms.\*\* The next day's median range is 2.4% vs 3.1%. But that's just calm continuing. \- My pre-registered test asked whether drying volume adds anything \*beyond\* the volatility model. \- It first said yes: +18% \*more\* movement than the model expected (SNR 4.2). \- The volatility model turned out to be the problem. It barely mean-reverts (persistence ≈ 0.999), so after any calm stretch it under-predicts. \- Adding the last 24h of volatility to the controls makes the drying-volume effect vanish (SNR 0.7). \- \*\*Bottom line:\*\* drying volume tells you the market is calm, which you already knew. \*\*Direction? No.\*\* \- After drying volume, 52.7% of sharp hours (beyond 3σ) went down, vs 54.3% on other days. The difference is −1.7 points, 95% CI \[−9.5, +6.2\]. \- Over 72 hours the shares are 54.1% vs 54.0%. \- A directional edge of 10 points or more is ruled out. The 24h return difference is also indistinguishable from zero. **What it means** \- \*\*For risk, not for direction.\*\* Stops and leverage sized on ATR implicitly assume a fixed tail. Before vs after the ETFs, moves beyond 4σ were 1.7x and beyond 6σ 2.8x more frequent in the fatter phase, so a stop several ATRs away gets hit by noise noticeably more often. A rolling tail estimate is a cheap way to know which phase you're in. \- \*\*"Coiled spring" volume:\*\* it neither predicts which way the next big candle goes nor makes it more likely than the current calm implies. \- \*\*If you compare realized volatility to GARCH forecasts, control for recent volatility.\*\* Otherwise "after X, it got busier than expected" can just be GARCH being slow after a quiet day. I almost published exactly that. **Scorecard (written down before the data)** \- \*\*Tails:\*\* co-researcher "shape changed" — right. Me "shape same" (50%) — wrong. \- \*\*Drying volume → sideways:\*\* we both expected a calmer-than-expected day. In plain terms it is calmer, but not beyond what calm already implies, so the pre-registered rule says no. \- \*\*Drying volume → direction:\*\* I gave "no direction ruled out" only 30%. That's what came out. **Limitations** \- \*\*One asset, one exchange, spot.\*\* BTC only, on Binance spot. \- \*\*Hill depends on how much of the tail you use.\*\* I fixed 5% in advance and reported 2.5% and 10%. \- \*\*The ETF effect isn't identified.\*\* It's one event, the tail moves on its own, and 2024 had other changes too. \- \*\*"Drying" has one definition\*\* (60% of the 30-day median). I didn't try others, on purpose. \*\*References\*\* \- Hill, B. M. (1975). A simple general approach to inference about the tail of a distribution. \*Annals of Statistics\*, 3(5), 1163–1174. \- Quintos, C., Fan, Z., & Phillips, P. C. B. (2001). Structural change tests in tail behaviour and the Asian crisis. \*Review of Economic Studies\*, 68(3), 633–663. \- Clark, P. K. (1973). A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices. \*Econometrica\*, 41(1), 135–155. \- Drożdż, S., Kluszczyński, R., Kwapień, J., & Wątorek, M. (2025). Multifractality and its sources in the digital currency market. arXiv:2510.13785. (Their 1-minute data also shows BTC's thinnest tail in 2024.) \*Not financial advice. This is a research log.\* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

VivaHollanda

Can China effectively block it's citizens from using BTC in China? 

jake_engineering

We’re talking here about using BTC as a mean to pay and get paid. I don’t think that anyone uses houses like that. With such constant sudden growth of value and drop of value of money in your wallet I see even bigger risks. It’s like introducing constant hyper deflation and hyper inflation at once. This wouldn’t end well for anyone. However if we would really be about to replace USD with BTC, than we would have to stop talking about its value in this way and its value would rather be represented by transactions costs. But first most of the people would have to start using it, so we stop treating it as investment asset.

CutFabulous1178

If you invested $1000 each time Schiff Shits on BTC And he’s been Bashing since 2013.. Let’s just say you’d be happily retired or some place nice

VeryThicknLong

Time to buy some BTC!

VivaHollanda

BTC doesn't solve this.  It doesn't apply to transactions between private individuals. And I guess that in other cases BTC has to be treated as a cash payment, why would a business be allowed to accept BTC without the mandatory checks that do apply to cash. 

privacymatterznow

I was talking to people I play Padel with and saw they opened an exchange. I said oh, you get BTC? They said, "bro its a scam". I replied "that its been out for 17 years and went from worthless to $81k. You sure about that bro? Its like saying the usable internet in its current form that is about only 30 years old is a scam." Then of course they changed the subject. 

Effective_Engine319

I used BTC to buy dinner last week. The fee was $0.001.

tres_pares

my guy if he got $720k in 2023 and used all that to buy that dip he would have 1000 BTC by now and that would be $81m in the current price, and $125k\~ at last year peak and prolly gonna reach $150-200m this bullrun

chainglance_cm

Most BTC “staking” is really lending it out or wrapping it, so you’re adding custodian or smart contract risk to the one asset people hold specifically to avoid that. Fine if you know what you’re signing up for, just keep it a small slice. For the Bitcoin standard thing, LN is honestly the best part. Small spends in sats feel way more natural than doing onchain txs for a coffee, and fees are basically nothing. Cold storage for the stack, LN wallet for spending money, like a savings and checking account. Once you’ve got BTC split across cold storage, LN and wrapped versions in DeFi, keeping track of what’s where gets messy. Trackers like Chain Glance help with the onchain side. Probably not needed if most of it just sits in cold storage though.

mia45452

A small test withdrawal is a useful reality check: it shows you can get BTC on-chain today, though it doesn't prove the platform could honor every customer's balance at once.

Mohowl_

I'll take a guess........ somewhere between 100k and 120k. Also, 1 BTC will be worth 1 BTC.

TheReaIJuice

He is talking more about BTC than Saylor

Previous_Valuable873

I disagree. BTC is extremely expensive to move, slow, sluggish and in general totally transparent. When i first bought BTC i assumed I am buying XMR featureset wise. It was back in 2013 mind you. When normies hear "crypto" I am sure they all expect monero. And then they get BTC and later on find out "holdonasecond wtf, this is bullshit" and switch to xmr.

Material_Ship1344

BTC is going to 1M. its time to stack

No-Iron9866

Bitcoin is no longer used for this as much now that people have figured it out. The actual question here is the opposite how much legal money needs flow through btc to get the price tag you’re looking for. BTC has always been based around trust not deceit.

GooodNiightaringding

It's honestly crazy. "Cap of 21 million BTC" is the major selling point of BTC, yet it's the exact same thing as "eventually spend nothing on security". Am I crazy or do people just not understand why we're even paying miners to begin with?

jay-valkyrie

A very likely future demand for BTC will be Super Intelligence agents. They will require a token that cannot be double spent, has a fixed supply cap and is recorded on an immutable ledger.

CoinEditionIndonesia

I think the distinction between adoption and speculation is important here. Bitcoin doesn't necessarily need to become an everyday payment method to have monetary utility. Cross-border transfers, self-custody, and holding an asset outside the traditional banking system are already use cases.. But there's another question worth asking: how much of the current demand comes from people actually using those properties, versus investors seeking price appreciation? That distinction probably matters more for long-term adoption than the number of merchants accepting BTC

HJDASHU

I have 26 BTC that I can just sit tight on😁

lus1d

I don’t get this anguish at all. My last purchase was 3 boxes of Modafinil from Indiapharmacy and paying by crypto I even got a discount so it only cost 0.2 BTC. Oh, wait….

lus1d

You might be right, or you might not. I’d suggest there’s a high probility 0.5 BTC will be liquidated and lost forever. But there’s a higher probability it will be in serious profit in 2 years…. Without having put more equity from the pay check into it. Any individual can tweak the trade to suit their risk profile, the above trade I discussed would fall under the category of Degen. (Unless your bag size is 50BTC, then it’s just a 1% risk 4R trade.)

lus1d

100% agree. And you will note I did not suggest that we won’t dump to $70k 60 50 40 or $20k anything is possible. If BTC wasn’t volatile, none of us would be here. We’d all be in metals stonks property or whatever.

cubeeless

BTC to $400k!

Holywell65

I consider the ability to transfer BTC peer to peer to be a supreme value. Also it’s fixed supply.

jasonslpt

Calling it over might be early, but the map leans against a quick rip. About $15M of longs got flushed in the last hour, nearly all of it longs, and longs are still roughly 63% of open interest, so the crowd has not cleared out. There is only a thin long liquidation pocket around 81.3K to 81.4K, then a much bigger pile near 79K, and I lean toward price getting pulled down to that area. I am wrong if BTC clears 81.6K and holds above 82K, since that would squeeze the shorts stacked right overhead. Not advice.

webisticsmarketing1

want to see something interesting? Go on google keyword trends and search for terms like "Bitcoin" "BTC to usd" "Bitcoin price" and for fun you can even throw in "eth to usd" "Ethereum price" etc. Looking at this was one of the main things that finally convinced me to dump my remaining crypto recently. It really seems like the global interest and focus already came, peaked, and went during covid. I genuinely think the masses are over it.

Patrick_Atsushi

Not being able to patch up the quantum threat for BTC for all wallets. This could be considered a design flaw that might shake up BTC if not handled properly and promptly.

Sin-City-Sinner

True i remember seeing a BTC machine like 13 years ago maybe a little less, however it does not mean it’s a smart thing to use in 2026–27

Regular_Attempt_7073

Its been 15 years since BTC came on the scene and has been challenging people’s concept of value and assets. Its timeline is undetermined because no one knows the future but what we do know is that things always take longer than people expect.

cyclik

I’m holding my BTC. If I would have had money last time I wanted to hold, I would be a millionaire today. 100%. I had the orders ready in 2013, but couldn’t establish the capital at that time. Now is different. I’m holding at 66k. It’s not going away. Not in this playthough. And I won’t gamble by playing the leverages game… they make it too easy to lose everything with one bad choice. If you have to gamble to work in the market, you should find another line of work…. Or a new hobby, because this isn’t a good one to dabble in. I wish I had some insider info, and that acting on said info wasn’t a felony. I need a network of people I can trust, but I can’t meet anyone anymore. Everyone is locking themselves away or getting stuck in dead end, life and souls sucking jobs that don’t even pay the bills. What is a man to do…

CyanDew

is it like buying BTC P2P from say something like Bisq, only more expensive and time consuming? or are these Bitcoin being paid out from exchanges?

cyclik

Omg. Check today’s price of BTC. That’s the catch.

SomeonesSecondary

I got into “crypto” in 2020-2021. Got burnt, got out but learned more about Bitcoin. Now I love Bitcoin and find “Crypto” to be cringe. I think anyone with a very limited knowledge of BTC who heard about NFTs, memecoins, rug pulls, and other scams is automatically going to be very wary of it all. Learning more about the history, origin, and foundational principles of Bitcoin can turn anyone with an open mind into a maximalist, but you have to be in the right headspace to want to even take in any of this information. I think a lot of us look at the price charts and see it as USD getting weaker, rather than Bitcoin rising, but that’s a worldview you have to develop

AnApexBread

Being treated like Cash instead of investment. Right now of I want to spend BTC I have to pay capital gain taxes on it.

economic-salami

Real world adoption goes hand in hand with its utility. Believe it or not BTC needs some way to do the central banking, in sense that it can do a stabilizing monetary policy.

AcanthisittaFuture38

Just as Visa and Mastercard have become dominant payment networks, accepted by virtually every merchant, Bitcoin is already well known. Now it needs to become useful in everyday life. Even many people who own BTC don’t actually want to use it; they’re just waiting for its price to go up so they can pass the “hot potato” on to someone else.

AcanthisittaFuture38

Exactly—not even people who have BTC want to have BTC; that's the biggest problem!

RyzenNinja

Strike has started doing 3.5% in BTC for the cash you store in your account. So you move your savings there then you could get your BTC through words.

Big-Cheetah5159

They accept BTC at the dealership?

AP_lookingahead

I think by this point the average person knows about BTC (it’s been heavily included in popular media, news, etc) but they just don’t care.

Rude_Difference2273

Let it become more widespread. Right now, it’s a perfect asset for those of us who believe in it; however, the day you can walk into any store and pay freely with your BTC—that’s when you’ll see a return on your investment today.

adarshhehe

To all, I don't think BTC will be valuable in the future. Some folks are just coping and expecting it to boom. No one cares about BTC anymore like it used to be. So chill the f out and do something else. Gold is valuable because, it's a physical entity. And BTC is air to common man. Gold has thousands of years of history backing it up and actual physical applications. You can hold it, wear it, and use it in manufacturing. BTC, on the other hand, is just a string of code on a decentralized spreadsheet, propped up by internet hype and tech bros trying to pump their own bags. When the economy gets genuinely rough, everyday people aren't going to scramble for tokens they can't even touch. The blockchain tech might be a neat experiment, but as a global reserve currency? It's a massive delusion. It’s time to wake up, stop gambling savings on digital ghosts. I used to be a crypto fan boy, but it's not worth it. No body cares

ughonrepeat

100% agree, in 2018 my buddy had 6 BTC. Decided to use a coin for leverage and lost it in short period. Then decided to leverage one to get the one back he just lost. Never called me for advice, at the end of the day he lost all 6. His wife was pregnant at the time but she had no clue he owned 6 to begin with so he is still married…..he told me the next day at work, said he would never touch BTC again and honestly after that conversation I never brought it up again because he must be sick to his stomach

DankShibe

Still has potential . It is decentralized, fast transactions for a PoW crypto , low energy usage ( less than BTC) and a large community. As long as BTC is around , so will Doge

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Ok_Computer_4595

Theres a coin called $worthless on solana that pays you in bitcoin, ive been holding for an hour and ive made $40 in BTC heres CA: 87sEXKPMBeoryaqFQQnq1Yq6mUvjeNzhiFGxJbRjpump

PowerAndControl

Not even commenting on whether he should put it into BTC or not, but if his entire wealth was in 1 condo, then same-same. It was already in 1 asset class. He just switched assets. Time will tell whether or not he made the correct decision.

pilar-9441

One extra variable in your target math: the loan is in euros but your BTC targets are in dollars, so EUR/USD affects how much you can repay with. A BTC price target alone doesn't tell you what your holdings will be worth in euros when payments come due.

braamdepace

“I’ve been DCAing since Feb 2026, I put in $10 a month in and it doesn’t look like I will be able to retire by the end of the year. Is BTC over”

Queasy-Ride4291

Hell yea, in about 10,000 more years, BTC will also have a 29.1T market cap. All we have to do is wait. HODL!!!

HSuke

I meant in 2021. I remember writing a post about how it was the first time BTC price dipped below the same price after exactly 5 years.

Embarrassed_Bid3531

I mean if you are looking at it like that the elites are jumping in BTC with both feet as well so I think gov and trade fi getting in crypto at all sucks because you know it but some time away from them fucking it all up

Squeiner

This is the kind of thing I'd use a BTC backed loan for

ChuCHuPALX

Where did you spurce the BTC from that it was determined to originate from a "restricted" person?

DietOk3400

Biggest difference is that with BTC you see the price change daily. Keep that in mind, remember your “why”, hodl. Good luck sounds like a nice problem to have

tocortes

The point of the original post was basically “banks think your money is theirs” because you can't instantly withdraw $10k in cash, with the implication that BTC somehow solves this (or does not have this problem). >That depends on who you are, where you are and who you know. In almost all places where there are banks it dosen't depends on who you are and who you know. You just need money, you can store it, you can get it back. >But it's a dumb question, even from a rhetorical angle. How quickly can you transform $10k of *anything* into cash? Why is it dumb? That's exactly my point. The original post presents something as a failure of traditional banking while implying BTC solves it, when it doesn't. And seeing people applaud that argument makes me think they don't really understand how any of this works. BTC is great for many reasons, but for most people in the world, it's still not a practical replacement for everyday money. And Lightning witch can be a solution its still very hard to use We can appreciate Bitcoin without pretending it solves problems it doesn't.

jasonslpt

The friction people usually describe isn't the K-1 itself, it's the timing and the knock-on costs. K-1s often land late in tax season, which pushes filings toward extensions or amendments, and plenty of folks who self file with cheap software suddenly need a paid preparer. For spot BTC exposure most investors see a 1099 product as the default, so a K-1 structure needs a clear, measurable benefit to compete. Publishing a realistic K-1 delivery date and a plain worked example would probably remove more hesitation than any marketing would.

jasonslpt

Plenty of people are still here, they're just quieter on red days. BTC near 81.9K has longs doing almost all of the liquidating this past hour, and funding is still a touch positive, so the crowd hasn't fully flushed yet. I lean down toward 81.6K first, where roughly $457M of long liquidations sit, with a smaller pocket around 81.75K on the way. That read dies if BTC reclaims 82.1K and holds, since about $450M of shorts would get squeezed up there. Late longs are basically paying rent for everyone else. Not advice.

Easymacsauce

Depends on how you think the market is going to go. If I had $100k I’d put $50k now then set when I’d go in next. You need to set your entrance levels so you don’t FOMO. I set my limits for my two lump sums and I actually missed which was to my benefit. End of the day I believe BTC will be trading well above $150k by 2030 so a couple thousand dollars now doesn’t matter to me.

Avanchnzel

>Has anyone here used MPC wallets? How was your experience? Yeah I've been using Viltisig from the beginning. The upsides are: \- There never exists a single full key anywhere, so there are no seed words to be compromised. \- There's no single point of failure. \- You use your own hardware that you already own (smartphone, desktop, browser extension, etc.) so you don't need to buy any specialized hardware. \- You can always add or remove a device or re-distribute the key-shares without losing the underlying wallet, which makes it flexible. \- It's pretty much chain-agnostic, open-source and has undergone public audits. And in case the application gets abandoned for some reason you can use an [emergency tool](https://docs.vultisig.com/security-and-technology/emergency-recovery) to retrieve individual keys per chain (i.e. a BTC wallet key, an ETH wallet key, etc. depending on what you need). There's a user-friendly tool and a CLI tool for more technically inclined people. The downsides are: \- Slightly higher overhead for signing transactions, because you have to coordinate with multiple devices (though there is a single-device option that involves a third-party signing server that works together with a password, completely optional) \- You have to make sure to keep (optionally encrypted) backups of the key-shares for each threshold device, which is the equivalent of keeping a backup for a seed phrase. If you don't and use more devices/keys than the minimum threshold, you're fucked. (You also need to make sure not to keep the backups in the same location, but they can be encrypted with a password at least, just in case). That's from the top of my head, I'm sure I forgot some details. But yeah, it's not necessarily more secure or less, it really depends on your needs and wants.

Morkyfrom0rky

Thank you. I was just reading about this method. Still no KYC using bitrefill that I could find and a $500 apple giftcard will cost $515 in BTC. Apple only accepts 8 cards online and 20 in store

RetiredAvocado

Buy apple giftcards on bitrefill. They have a max value of $500 so you will need multiple cards. On checkout you can add several cards, or at least you could before. Double check that. Get to final checkout page to get the total and see how many codes you can add. The final difference you can pay with credit or debit card. If you never used bitrefill try smaller amounts first and read the TOS. Add 2FA to bitrefill account. Mine is pretty old and there's on option to do ID verification in it but they don't force me to do it. Not sure how they roll with new accounts on pushing for ID. And it will cost about 2% in their fees plus maybe lousy spread on market price of your BTC.

Fun_Manufacturer_122

He didn’t ask you whether it’s worth selling BTC; he’s asking how to do it. Learn to read.

BrendanRodgersss

I think the important distinction is privacy versus the safety of the coins themselves. A public server knowing your addresses doesn't give it the ability to spend your BTC, but it can still learn quite a lot about your holdings and activity. That's worth considering even for a normal holder. Your trust point is the key caveat though. Routing through your node changes who gets that information, not whether somebody gets it. I'd make that very clear in the tool.

BrendanRodgersss

It's understandable to feel that loss even if you never lived there. Having a place you've owned for 12 years is a different kind of security from having an investment account. The one thing I'd make sure of is keeping enough liquid cash for your travel and living expenses so a BTC downturn never forces you to sell at a bad time. Hope the next chapter treats you well.

strangegod

Buy $worthless coin it’s paired to BTC

BrendanRodgersss

I'd separate Lightning spending from anything described as BTC staking. Bitcoin doesn't have native proof-of-stake rewards, so most BTC yield products introduce some additional counterparty, lending or wrapped-asset risk. That's very different from using Lightning to pay someone. Holding for savings and spending small amounts where LN is accepted aren't mutually exclusive either.

Efficient_Range1156

I literally sold MY M4 max 48 GB ram macbook a week ago for 0.03BTC

Signal-Fig-2952

The easiest way to sell BTC is through a CEX. I personally would just take a loan against it, since that’s tax free.

KIG45

Alright, the decision has been made. Now, all that remains is to adequately secure your BTC, so that you don't end up with nothing at some point. I hope you know how to protect yourself properly. Good luck!

0a0d0s0

Good idea. I also think $500,000 in BTC is far too big an advantage in 2013. Time for some changes!

Bakkus1987

Do this shit if you wanna lose your BTC

Professional_Tea4502

It’s not, I buy BTC every week so I caught all the low 60s which is the low of the bear market. We have already bottomed this cycle. You clearly aren’t good at reading charts 📈

bjm3384

I live in New York also and have been trying to find away around this problem for a while. I was able to find that Speed wallet works well. It accepts traditional BTC and lightning. I also mine Bitcoin from my phone on GoMining. It’s free to sign up and earn bitcoin daily. Currently New York users can’t deposit or withdraw but I’m still earning for the future and will withdraw once the state turns its head around on crypto https://gomining.com/?ref=MINEWITHPURPLE

Rav_3d

Why not use BTC or similar ETF?

CyanDew

bitrefill is dope as f. in the event that you’re cut off or somehow shunned away from using a U.S. bank account, prepaid cards paid in BTC is pretty clutch.

lus1d

Or wrap ur BTC and borrow usdt at an easy 50% lvr and buy ur stonks.

lus1d

Exactly! Portfolio should be balanced across all sectors….. BTC, L1 Dino coins, DeFi, Memes, CEX Tokens, Governance coins, Utility tokens, RWA

lus1d

I’m not a fan of looping, but you could always use it as margin on a CEX and get a leveraged long position. Let’s say price around $80k and you know deeply and profoundly and spiritually we are never going to see $40k again (lol) throw it into an exchange, and take a long position of 1 BTC for a couple years till the next peak. Close your long in say December 2028, you (probably) still have your 0.5 plus you have the additional profit of riding 1 BTC from 80k to 200k. Woohoo I wanted to do this from $16k to $100k with funds pulled out of my mortgage….. but I chickened out 😂 🐓

audiomediocrity

Last time I checked the BTC ATM, it also wanted a drivers license

Huge_Position890

Good question, so I checked it. The split rule and my guess were written down before I ran it. The question itself came after the post, though, so treat this as a follow-up rather than a pre-registered test. Each day I split coins into thirds by their past 30-day trading volume and re-ran the same regression inside each third, in both periods. **Next 7 days vs the average coin, per 10% coin-specific move:** ||small|mid|large| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |after a pump, 2022–26|−2.2%|−2.0%|−3.1%| |after a pump, 2019–21|−4.4%|−2.1%|−0.4% (not significant)| |after a drop (further fall), 2022–26|−0.6%|−1.1%|−3.3%| |after a drop (further fall), 2019–21|−1.4%|−1.9%|−2.2%| Your mechanism fits the pump side better than the drop side: * **Pumps:** in 2019–21 the largest third's pumps didn't fade at all, while small coins gave back a lot. That's where size matters. * **Drops:** the continuation shows up in every size group in both periods. In 2022–26 it's actually strongest in the largest third (large vs small difference, t = 4.6). So it isn't mainly a "small altcoin with nothing underneath" effect. My own guess was also that drops would continue less in large coins, and that was wrong too. **BTC and ETH on their own:** * **BTC pumps:** BTC-specific pumps fade over the next week in both periods. A BTC-specific pump means BTC beating what the market and its own characteristics predicted that day. In 2022–26 that's −2.7% per 10% (95% CI −4.5% to −0.9%); in 2019–21 it's −5.7% (CI −10.9% to −0.5%). * **BTC/ETH drops:** the intervals are too wide to say anything. Their coin-specific moves are small (daily residual sd \~2.2–2.6%, vs \~4–5% for the median coin), so there isn't much signal to work with. One caveat on "large": it means the top third of Binance spot pairs by volume (\~110 coins a day in 2022–26, median \~$13M a day), not just BTC and ETH. Why would large coins' own drops keep going longer? I don't know. One guess is that a large coin rarely falls on its own without real news (an exploit, an unlock, a regulatory story), and news takes time to sink in. I can't separate news days yet, so that's untested.

thrwaway1614211

Really depends on your outlook. As you correctly identified, the days of the crazy gains are long gone. Personally I profited from BTC in the last decade, but would not invest in it now. Since there are no real fundamentals, it is purely hype driven speculation..... and the hype is just kinda gone. The crazy upside is gone and you can make much bigger gains with the AI plays, which means much of the speculation money has shifted from BTC to those stocks. But at the same time it's also not stable enough for the passive investors. So what's the point of investing in it? In the absolute and quite unlikely bull case I would expect at most a 2x - 3x in the next 5 years, but this moderate gain still comes with huge risk. In the end it's your decision, but just don't get fooled by people posting crazy CAGR percentages which track btc since the inception. If you look at rolling window charts, the CAGR has completely collapsed and sits around 12% for the last 5 years and still trending down.

thrwaway1614211

This is such a stupid argument. If the only reason for BTC/USD increase is devaluation of USD due to inflation, then BTC did not rise at all....