BTC

Upper-Media3769

S&P 500 is good for long term holding. For Monero you can only speculate. I keep some to always be able to make anonymous payments. I also think that it has a lot of potential with fiat currencies getting digitalized. But I don't think it will become mainstream like BTC because governments do everything to make it unavailable for normies.

xcrunner2414

This calculator assumes the BTC are held through retirement. Y’all don’t even understand what you’re criticizing, lol.

crunchyeyeball

Kinda. This [video from 3Blue1Brown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBC-nXj3Ng4) explains it far more eloquently than I ever could. Basically, a miner groups together as many transactions as will fit into a block, prioritized by fee. These miners *compete* to create such a block by find one whose header *hashes* to a value below a certain threshold based on the current "*difficulty*", where this *difficulty* adjusts to keep the time between blocks at around 10 minutes. This can be though of as finding a hash with x zeroes for simplicity. The winning miner gets to award themselves all the transaction fees, plus the block *subsidy* (currently 3.125 BTC).

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anonz123

Do you think BTC will go up? * **If yes**: Buy more * **If no**: Don't buy more

ComasArentFun

Dude, if I need to fanny around with arcane parameters to get somewhere close to actual real world expectation, it's nothing short of fantasy economics and moving goalposts to arrive at a number the user is happy with, which is by definition useless If I go to my pension planner, and I could just straight up lie about everything to make it sound like I can retire tomorrow, reality wouldn't reflect that (which is why their sites rely on your assets and realistic projections) - your site has the opposite problem. I'm not sure if you have totally vibed the entire thing without understanding the core concept of why BTC matters, and how it works, or this is an "Anti-BTC" attempt with a vague handwave at some flawed data to project a veneer of legitimacy. Honestly, I've seen both many many times so it's a coin flip as far as I'm concerned. Roger Ver? Is that you? Is there another site that tells me why BCH is the better alternative and I can retire on a fraction of the upfront costs?

meaningful_convo

Me too.. we are all learning as time goes on, no mattwe how long we're in the markets. Seeing that you do not express dunning-kruger effect like most new people and admit it, you are one step further from others. Just know the math, don't emotionaly attach to any crypto I will one advice that i wish i had been given when i started on Feb 2017.... price of a tooken is actually not important, what is is market cap. That is why inflation rate is so important. Know that the difference beetween 2017 and now is that nowdays at a ~$1.2T market cap, Bitcoin is a massive ocean liner. Every new dollar that comes in has to absorb the selling pressure of early adopters taking profit. For BTC to double from here, you need the equivalent of the entire market cap of Amazon, Google, or a significant chunk of the S&P 500 to flow exclusively into Bitcoin.

salinungatha

All I need is 65000 BTC apparently. Easy

marvpaul

I don’t think this is any useful, I need 236BTC more to retire.

reddevilandbones

313BTC to retire. Yep sounds about right 

Impressive-Fig-9532

but i would also like to add that Tesla never took out Toyota,bmw,etc the traditional car companies. It ended up dominating its Niche area and then is now slowly taking away marketshare from the traditional car companies. Will EV eventually replace gas? who knows. I see zcash doing the same thing, it will dominate the privacy niche area and slowly take away marketshare from BTC and will it eventually replace BTC? who knows.

Lost_Anywhere_69

If you believe this, go ahead swap all your BTC for zcash post the proof… maybe I’ll join you.

Infernoswelt

This is literally wrong. He said that BTC will not break the previous high at around 82.800$ this year, but it did. Not that the low is definitely in now.

Queasy-Ride4291

The blockchain does not turn money into BTC. Only an exchange can do that. Wether it’s a marketplace exchange like Binance or Coinbase, or an exchange between individuals. There are hundreds of thousands of scams out there. If you don’t know what you’re doing, don’t do it. 

Queasy-Ride4291

Good on you because BTC has NEVER stayed above the power law support curve. Been proven time and time again. 

Queasy-Ride4291

Because the power law support curve is a constantly moving goal post. BTC broke it 3 times this year alone lol

faisal_yk26

I'd flip it. This doesn't make Zcash a threat to Bitcoin, it makes Bitcoin a threat to Zcash's main selling point. It's still just a paper though. No way to move BTC in or out yet, no launch date, and Bitcoin itself doesn't verify the private transfers. Big validation for Zcash's tech, but if BTC ever gets working privacy, the reason to hold ZEC shrinks.

jummy006

Not gonna read all that. Is the “TLDR” Zcash will ultimately become the greater BTC?

easyEggplant

BTC is a good in investment, but anyone promising you fast, large and low risk gains is going to steal from you.

Acceptable_Piano4809

Be careful man….. as someone that’s been through a divorce with a lot of BTC, I wouldn’t tell my wife about any of it if I could take it back. In fact my wife used to tell me to stop talking about my stupid internet money! Then asked for $3M at the divorce

xcrunner2414

Did you change any of the advanced settings? Are you *absolutely sure* there will be a new wave of 500 million people buying your Bitcoin when you attempt to retire on your BTC stack? If you think it’s a load of shit then criticize the methodology. Otherwise you might just be fooling yourself.

MonsieurGump

Apparently I need 268 BTC to retire…I thought about 10 would cover it. What a load of shit.

mysomica

Tells me I need 250 BTC to retire in 10 years on $60,000 per year. At least it's something to aim for. Only 249.998 to go...doable 🤣

angelwolf71885

If you aren’t on Tier 1 BTC you aren’t actually using BTC

MakCapital

Thorchain will be providing a on-chain swap for XMR. You can swap from something like BTC to XMR and swap back. You don't need to swap same amounts. Just like any other exchange, but Thorchain all on-chain and no KYC. Once you've swapped in you're shielded. Until this happens, Monero is vastly inferior to options like Zcash with Solana. Too hard and costly to get in and out. Monero maxis will respond with some garbage p2p marketed services that leverage centralized components, escrow, or some form of semi trust based sketchy solutions with little liquidity and no true permissionless order books. Many of these sketchy services are operated by the whales looking to escape their illicit XMR. Nothing truly solved until Monero adds complex contracts, but Thorchain will finally be the first reasonable option for your average person.

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iSnapThere4iAm

BTC pumped less last cycle than the S&P…. So, you might want to learn the asset you’re trading. It is no longer the volatility play that it used to be. Plenty of better places now for asymmetrical risk.

Successful_Love_6085

I think BTC will cross the 100,000 mark.

Sacredwisp

Because BTC is the only one with any inherent value. It's target market is all monetary premium in assets, which is conservatively valued at several hundred trillion. Meme coins are just that: memes. No utility or use. They are simply gambling. News flash: NFTs are never getting a resurgence. They were a scam to take your money with a fancy story to justify them. Memecoins are the same. Just take the 30-40% CAGR. Don't be greedy and lose it all. If that isn't enough for you, you've got bigger problems.

quintavious_danilo

A decentralized platform to buy BTC without KYC.

Former_Marionberry93

I calculated my avarage entry today. Even with the recent fomo buys at \~80k$, thanks to some buys from back in 2020 my avarage entry is \~53k$/BTC. So I had never a loss on my BTC spot position in this bear market, even though I started DCAing right under 100k. It was sometimes quite a hard ride but I could manage staying convinced.

faisal_yk26

You've hit the classic Bisq catch-22. On Bisq 1 you need some BTC already, because buyers have to put down a BTC security deposit. The way around it is Bisq Easy in Bisq 2. Buyers don't need a deposit there, the seller takes the risk based on their reputation. Trades are capped at small amounts, but it's built exactly for getting your first sats without KYC. Once you have a little BTC, you can use that as your deposit on regular Bisq for bigger trades.

soks86

Halvings also have minimal impact on BTC now. The natural inflation of BTC is significantly lower than \_any\_ available currency worldwide. It would only affect the largest buy and hold stashes and only assuming they're not using any of the stash to generate interest income. Even a small amount of passive income on your BTC will beat whatever loss you have from the printing of more BTC and all of that will be swallowed up by volatility and the ever-increasing scarcity of BTC.

SoleilWish

skip futures and leverage for now.. thats how beginers get wrecked. Practice on a demo acccount, then just DCA into BTC on spot whit money u can afford to lose

Suspicious-Local-901

Try Relai if you’re looking for BTC only

moonRekt

If you have a whole coin, and only made $4k in gains from gold, I’m guessing you have a lot more BTC. Keep the gold, stay diversified

nycteris91

Offff. Using the same OS yoy use to watch p*rn to send BTC. Never, never, never. Dedicated OS (avoid Linux with telemetry) in a USB. Clean and only used for banking and BTC.

easyEggplant

Only BTC. No shitcoins. Buy and hold.

Ok_Entertainer_1179

Study BTC first and build your own conviction.

No_Jeweler_5049

First rule:don't touch futures untiel you actually understand spot trading. Seriously. Way too many beginners get wiped out by leverage in their first week. Start with spot, buy some BTC and ETH, learn how markets move, and THEN think about futures if you want.

quintavious_danilo

There are no great options, you can either go cheap *or* reliable. You can’t have both. **OKX** is very cheap but I wouldn’t use it for larger amounts. I only use it for trades up to €1k because of the travel rule you can’t withdraw anything larger without a neckbreaking hassle (proof of ownership of your wallet, satoshi test etc.) **Kraken** ***Pro*** is my go-to and when you have the funds, it’s reasonably cheap. Fees depend on how much you trade. I cannot recommend **Binance** (not MiCA regulated) and I’m not really impressed by **Bybit.eu** either, they have reasonable fees but low volume, your orders are going to get filled poorly. **Bitpanda** ***Fusion*** (the exchange side of the broker, not the broker itself!) is reasonably cheap as well, but it’s a small exchange with low liquidity. Not a big fan of them either. Never traded with **Bitvavo**, I hear they are cheap (0.25%?) and reliable, can’t say anything about them though. If you want reliable and BTC-*only*, you can look at services like **Relai**. They’re from Switzerland but have unreasonable high fees (\~1%).

Good-Book-6912

Just remember. The possibility of theft does not justify theft. If those BTC are basically stolen from people with a fork just because there is a risk of theft, that should be the end of Bitcoin.

scibward

In my area, homes have a CAGR of 3.5% over the past 20 yrs. Shift it to past 15 and it’s 5.5%. With the way I expect the govt to handle the debt, really good chance that CAGR is 10% over next 20 yrs… hoping BTC will rise too, but the returns could look a lot better on paper than in reality

Moumou-Johnson

Shrimp < 1 BTC, Fish 1-10, Sharks 10-1k, Whales 1k-100k, Exchanges 100k+. So no plankton tier yet, you're at least a shrimp 😄

Numerous_Big_3680

man who bought civics in 2016 is probably crying right now, car worth less than a trip to mcdonalds in BTC terms

KidAmulet

Yeah, don't do anything with futures or leverage now. Safest is to put all in BTC, or you can spread it out into BTC, ETH, and SOL and get a little higher ROI. And then just hold for years. And while you're account is slowly growing, you can educate yourself about futures and options. But stay away from them until you are not a beginner anymore. Honestly, only people that are experts in the market with years and years of experience should do futures or options. If you trade 24/7 then maybe after a few years of experience.

VettaQ

The breadth approach is the right instinct, but there is a sampling trap in it: the top 50 today is not the top 50 from 90 days ago. Coins that got crushed fall out of the list, so counting today's top 50 over the last 90 days quietly drops the worst performers and biases the 40% figure upward. The cleaner version is to freeze the top-50 list at the start of the window, then count how many of those beat BTC. You usually get a lower number, and the gap between the two counts is itself a useful measure of how violent the rotation was underneath.

zenonelongbow

Imagine getting a house loan in BTC 😂

ScopulyX

Bitvavo could be worth looking into, especially for EUR deposits and withdrawals. I’d compare its fees and BTC withdrawal costs with a few other exchanges before deciding.

TheCurlyHomeCook

I think that you're misguided and not understanding what everyone else sees as consensus. Yes it gives an idea of the difference, but it is a poor comparison. Both can be true. It's a very poor comparison, and poor post. But yes, I can still see that BTC has grown in value whilst these have become worth less in BTC. But there is no frame of reference for how much change there has been. No cost in £/$ to see what the cars themselves are worth in Fiat. Which is fine, if using two identical examples. But given that we have two completely different vakue cars from different manufacturers, a decade a part with no cost reference - it's a fucking pointless post. If I could be arsed I'd gladly make one showing how much a kitten was worth in BTC in 2015 vs a lion cub in 2026. It would be about as useful in indicating accurate growth as using a watermelon as a phone.

TheCurlyHomeCook

I think that you're misguided and not understanding what everyone else sees as consensus. Yes it gives an idea of the difference, but it is a poor comparison. Both can be true. It's a very poor comparison, and poor post. But yes, I can still see that BTC has grown in value whilst these have become worth less in BTC. But there is no frame of reference for how much change there has been. No cost in £/$ to see what the cars themselves are worth in Fiat. Which is fine, if using two identical examples. But given that we have two completely different vakue cars from different manufacturers, a decade a part with no cost reference - it's a fucking pointless post. If I could be arsed I'd gladly make one showing how much a kitten was worth in BTC in 2015 vs a lion cub in 2026. It would be about as useful in indicating accurate growth as using a watermelon as a phone.

tenor_tymir

Why would she need $900k to buy 900k BTC? And yes, it’s fake.

kdigo

This will be a nice tool depicting the BTC flows in the (36) months to come!

loupiote2

You should use a hardware wallet and check the dest address on the hardware wallet screen.. If you own more than a BTC, there is no excuse for using a software wallet. Sorry for your loss

TheCurlyHomeCook

A modern lamborghini and a modern Renault clio are not comparable just because they're modern. Likewise a modern tesla and a 10 year old civic are not comparable just because they each were new at the time. That's a very stupid position to take. A modern mansion costs more than a modern flat. So showing a flat in BTC 10 years ago and 6 bed house now - are they comparable because both were new at the time? No. They aren't even close. In comparisons, you use two items that are comparable. A new tesla 10 years ago and new tesla today. In all honesty the two different car idea is a bad one too. It should simply be a 2026 tesla, and how many BTC it would have cost 10 years ago vs now.

Mwayi-Gnoma

Yes, with one important distinction - they could see the transaction, but not your physical location. If the original person knows the addresses or keeps a watch-only copy of the wallet, they can see when BTC moves and where it goes on-chain. They won't see "he spent this in a hotel in London" unless they have some outside information connecting that address to the real world. Also for realism, Bitcoin uses inputs and change, so it doesn't always look as simple as "$500 left the wallet and the rest stayed there."

Moumou-Johnson

Hi, it's 4 adresses with more than 100K BTC. So yeah multiple exchanges. You can check it at the "Who hodls what" section the website [btcflow](https://btcflow.skyex.fr)

meccaleccahimeccahi

Yeah, and in your novel, be sure to clarify that BTC ≠ cryptocurrency

molnardavid84

At €200–€300 monthly, avoid withdrawing immediately to self-custody every purchase. Creating micro-UTXOs under 100,000 sats leads to heavy fee drag later when mempools spike. Instead, leave purchases on your reputable platform until reaching 1,000,000 to 3,000,000 sats (0.01–0.03 BTC) before making a lump-sum withdrawal to cold storage. For self-custody with privacy, Ginger Wallet is well-suited for this accumulation tranche: its built-in coordinator charges 0% coordinator fees on inputs up to 0.03 BTC with free remixes, letting you consolidate and break transaction graph links from your purchase platform before archiving to long-term storage.

Bilatsibagya

High leverage BTC short sellers went aggressive, got squeezed, and were forced to buy.

SamFromJupiter

I see others have already answered your question here. I am curious to know what's the theme of your novel if you can share. 👀 Really amazing that you are using including narratives like crypto and BTC in to make it more relevant for today's audience.

Moumou-Johnson

I tried to found an Satoshi emoji but the chad one is better :) Thanks you for your feedbacks! 1- it already exists on the website in the first section "who hodls what" ([btcfow](https://btcflow.skyex.fr) 2- ETFs don't have a separately tagged address on-chain, their BTC sits in custodian wallets (Coinbase Custody, Fidelity, etc.), so it's likely already folded into your Exchanges or Whales cohorts without being distinguishable.

onlinemaxi

The chad emoji for Satoshi is just woww. Liked how you have focused on such small details 🫡 Since you asked for some suggestions: I see you have date ranges till 2 months. You planning to show overall BTC holders as well? One more doubt: Your stats also account for the BTC ETF buys and sells?

Humble_Concentrate23

best bet is just dollar cost average BTC, buy every month no matter where it is. BTC is likely going to go higher than it is. just long term invest in BTC first and then later on you can decide if you want to start trading any other crypto currency’s which j would advise against

BrendanRodgersss

Markets trade expectations more than headlines. If the hike was heavily expected, a lot of the selling can happen before the actual announcement. Then when nothing worse shows up you get the weird looking green candle after “bad” news. I wouldn't take one move as proof BTC stopped caring about macro, but holding up this well after a hike is definitely better than the alternative.

Hephalumpicus

You might diversify your BTC across different holdings, especially for larger amounts. Use at least two hw wallets from different companies; ledger, trezor, and bitkey. Put some in ETF's; Blackrock, Fidelity for example. Maybe some in an exchange but personally I would put exchanges and hot wallets low on my list. It's very unlikely all would be hit at once and if one gets hit, you conserve your losses and the remaining still goes to the moon, hopefully!

Crazymachiato

so basicly, Satoshi can now send her BTC without a trace of him moving it? 🤔

Top_Anteater_8581

Sideways is just BTC charging up for the next run, let the weak hands get bored and sell. I spend the quiet days browsing weird houses on zillow I can't afford yet

fittes7

Dip? What dip? BTC is 84k

TheresNoSecondBest

>Now users must use OTHER app to move into L-BTC and then somehow swap into BTC addres.. or smth..? It is ducked up situation for sure. But you don't need "OTHER app to move into L-BTC", your sats are already in Liquid. The swapping from liquid might currently be difficult not because of Breez, but because of liquid being recently hacked and the federation is missing about 15% BTC. So not many people are willing to exchange L-BTC to BTC.

Traditional_Most105

If you are afraid losing money then you wont make money. Same goes if you are reckless and dont care losing money. You have to care enough that your choices are based on learning and research and you have to not be afraid in order to put money you can afford losing and not put savings and money you need for your life. I only do spot trading which is basically buying a coin and i personally hold long term and when it goes up to a price i think its best for profits i will sell. I use kraken for exchange as i want the safe way instead of having a wallet i might mess up. I started back in July this year and i did my research and i learned a lot before i put more money in. I used chatgpt to learn faster (it makes mistakes but if you know what to ask it it can be helpful for learning). I used it to learn more about crypto in general. Either put your money in BTC or ETH which are safer bets with less possible upside or do your research on a coin from the top 50s. Do your own research, dont listen to anyone who tells you to contact him and help you its probably a scammer. Just learn more, pick a safer coin, add very small amount to try and you see how it goes. Learning and researching wont make you make more money but it will help you understand more, make safer choices and identify scams. Dont act on the hype of social media. Listen to it but always do your own research. And most important accept any negative consequences. The crypto market is so volatile that it could go either way...

yellowmonkeyzx93

1. Do only spot trading as a beginner or even advance investor. The idea being that, as long as you don't sell (when you're at a loss), you don't actualize it for real. Its only paper losses. Leverage and futures has destroyed people instantly and still is. 2. Learn technical analysis to analyse charts, the 4 year cycle, liquidity rotation from BTC => ETH => major caps => small caps 3. Timing is important. Great time to enter the market now. 4. Invest in long-term horizons and remember to take small profits on the way up and reinvest. 5. Blockchain backer is a great analyst to learn from on Youtube.

crosshawk21

Anyone else actually enjoy the boring Bitcoin days? After enough years in BTC, sideways feels almost relaxing 😂

quintavious_danilo

KYC/AML rules and the recently introduced MiCA regulation aim to regulate the crypto market and prevent money laundering and tax evasion. Do you think these regulations will be relaxed or tightened over the next 10 to 20 years? I’d say they’ll get stricter, making it increasingly difficult to buy and sell unregulated BTC. I’m just an ordinary guy you know. I want to accumulate BTC now and be able to sell it easily later whenever the time feels right. Should I look for people on P2P exchanges to sell my BTC for cash? But what would I actually do with, say, $500k in cash? And yes, those are the kinds of sums I’d like to have accumulated in 10 to 20 years. I just want to cash out and be done with it. I have no intention of playing Robin Hood or anything like that.

themastersmith123

Avoid LEVERAGE. AVOID OPTIONS. JUSR BUY AND HOLD BTC

PatchyRain

This time round, just SOL and BTC. Got fed up of all the sh*tcoins dragging my portfolio down.

Scottex99

You don’t have any money, you don’t know what you’re doing - there is zero point in “becoming a trader” Put $100 into BTC and check it again in 10 years

Bred_Slippy

AI and BTC mining use very different hardware (GPUs/TPUs vs SHA-256 ASIC) so you can't just switch their compute like that. 

Billgatesisamoron

I no longer have the confidence I once had in BTC because of how retarded the developer community is on both sides of any debate. I started diversifying into owning acreage. It seems as though holding btc in 2026 is basically putting the fate of your entire net worth in the hands of a small group of retard developers. Some of them want to increase the supply cap with tail emissions. Not a safe bet imo.

Medium-Renewed

You're right, my example was bad but you get the point. Short term outperformance against BTC shouldn't count as altseason when they are generally still down massively from ATH, so the index should rather consider data that indiciates that altcoins are showing major growth to actual new highs (like TOTAL3ES). Hope we will see that again this cycle..

omni_wisdumb

No the F it's not. Stop pretending BTC (or any Crypto project) is trying to have any utility. There's a reason Satoshi left the project way back at the beginning, and most definitely lost his keys bc he also thought it was dead. There's only one reason anyone gets into this space, and it's to make more fiat via profits.

HedgehogGlad9505

Comparing to what? I mean, do you think you will be better holding 100k USD than 1 BTC when ASI happens? That is all you need to decide. The rest is not related to BTC.

chainglance_cm

By the morning of the announcement, futures traders had it at over 90% odds, so it was priced in weeks earlier. That's partly why BTC was sliding in the run-up. Once the Fed actually did it, the uncertainty was gone and the "sell the news" crowd had already sold. A small 25bp hike also looks nothing like 2022, when they kept hiking every meeting. Add oil dropping and Trump-Xi optimism, and a relief bounce makes sense. So yes, three things usually happen at once. The trick is to ask what the market expected, since the event itself matters less than the gap between the expectation and what actually happened.

Cryptognito

Start by not trading. Start by not calling it crypto and sticking to BTC only and start by having a buy and hold strategy. Once you’re comfortable with that strategy, and you see some gain in value of your portfolio by simply sitting and holding Then and only then should you consider the possibility of diversifying out of BTC and or trading If you know, nothing about trading then you will be I’m a short pass to losing money Buy and hold patiently is a strategy that can be used by novices and still get gains.

Cryptognito

Start by not trading. Start by not calling it crypto and sticking to BTC only and start by having a bite and hold strategy. Once you’re comfortable with that strategy, and you see some gain in value of your portfolio by simply sitting and holding Then and only then should you consider the possibility of diversifying out of BTC and or trading If you know, nothing about trading then you will be I’m a short pass to losing money Buy and hold patiently is a strategy that can be used by novices and still get gains.

chainglance_cm

Nice work. Are you using today's top 50 or the one from 90 days ago? Today's has survivorship bias baked in, since coins that pumped into it count as winners and the ones that dumped out vanish. Also worth stripping stables, wrapped BTC and LSTs, since they can't beat BTC by design. Your Dec 2024 point is the solid though.

chainglance_cm

TradingView has a paper trading mode, and Binance and Bybit both have demo accounts if you want to poke at futures without real money. Give it a month and compare your results to just buying BTC and doing nothing. Most people lose to the "do nothing" strategy, and it's way better to find that out with fake money. I'd skip futures for now. With $300 and leverage, a random wick can liquidate you even when you were right about the direction.

Cosmineus

BTC is a hot potato now

Heyy_linni

Forget buying things when BTC hits millions. I’m just waiting for the dip to buy the dip of the dip.

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Post is by: Intelligent_Chard383 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wqhp7t/complete_beginner_want_to_learn_crypto_trading/ I've been lurking this sub for months and finally decided I want to actually start trading instead of just reading about it. Problem is I have maybe $300 to start with and I'm honestly scared of blowing it all on day one because I have no idea what I'm doing. I've seen people talk about spot trading, futures, leverage, and it's overwhelming. Is there a way to practice without risking real money first? And what should a complete beginner focus on, just buying and holding BTC, or is it worth learning futures? Any advice appreciated, sorry if this gets asked a lot. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

BoringPrinciple2542

The rule of 4-5% withdrawals predates Bitcoin by fifteen years and is based on stock market data going back to 1926. The point of 60-75k safe withdrawals is based on the $1.5mil valuation (1.5M x 0.04 = 60k while 1.5M x 0.05 = 75k). The discussion of the relative value of $1.5mil is not tethered to the market volatility of BTC. When the conversation is over your head and you don’t understand what is going on, it is ok to keep your mouth shut. In fact, most people prefer it as it prevents highlighting their stupidity.

CryptoPulseOficial

Corto: es una herramienta divertida con memoria selectiva, no un oráculo. Contexto: nació en 2014 como un **meme** en Bitcoin Talk — alguien pintó bandas de colores sobre un gráfico logarítmico y les puso nombres ("¡Estás loco si vendes!", "Máximo de burbuja", etc.). Después varios la refinaron con regresión logarítmica. **Lo que sí tiene de fondo:** BTC ha crecido en escala logarítmica desde su origen, así que una regresión log "atrapa" el precio hacia el centro de las bandas razonablemente bien. **Lo que nadie te cuenta:** * Es *curve fitting*: la recalibraron después de casi cada ciclo. El arcoíris de 2017 "falló" en 2021; el de 2021 ya fue reajustado. Siempre afilan el pasado, nunca predicen el futuro. * Solo funciona mientras BTC crezca secular. Si entra en fase de madurez (tipo oro), las bandas dejan de tener sentido. * Cero fundamentos: no ve halvings, flujos de ETF, macro ni adopción. Es el precio pasado dibujado bonito. **Cómo usarla bien:** como termómetro de sentimiento, no como señal. Bandas inferiores = históricamente zona de acumulación paciente. Bandas superiores = zona donde la euforia te cobra caro. Pero ni eso es garantía: en 2021 tocar la banda roja no impidió que siguiera subiendo un buen rato después. Si tu plan es "compro en verde, vendo en rojo", funciona hasta que deja de funcionar — y nadie te avisa cuándo es ese momento. Úsala como mapa del clima, no como pronóstico.

Full-Shake-173

ok sure but the word "offer" makes it sound like a hypothetical situation where someone is offering above market price, rather than the price of BTC just being higher at some point in the future

Ordinary-One2597

Take the offer and use the fiat to buy 0.1 BTC lol

Bluejumprabbit

This is just BTC dominance sitting elevated, capital crowds into BTC early in a move and alts only get a real bid once it flattens out. Watch the dominance chart rolling over as your signal, that's usually when rotation into ETH and the majors actually kicks in.

DNR159

AI stocks are the new BTC. BTC is the new gold

Time_Basis2535

Over the last year I have converted 6 0z of gold to BTC. Gold had its run. BTC is still 30 % off

Blackfish69

why it increases more than those other things is simply because of the ease of access AND scarcity. At some point bitcoin becomes a profit center as more people turn to it for any number or reasons. In theory, all of those other things keep becoming more productive, more available, and/or less demand by shrinking populations. In contrast, BTC just needs to capture more market share and keep spreading. That’s basically it.

LiZa_Angel8716

Personally, I wouldn't sell a profitable asset just because another one is dipping. Gold and Bitcoin serve different purposes in a portfolio. I've learned that patience, diversification, and risk management matter more than trying to catch the perfect entry point. Why not keep some gold and gradually build your BTC position instead?

DarrelXero

This is what you will run into. Those of us dipping a toe and moving on are not the whales you are looking for. There were enthusiasts and there was something else. Could be forced HODLing through semi-lost keys or true visionaries. Either way you aren't going to get the historical record you are looking for. Kudos for trying though. I formatted the drive holding my wallet.dat after mining (unsuccessfully) in that time frame but holding multiple BTC freely given by the faucet because I came to the conclusion that everyone was right and it was a scam. Just a story and no system logs. Write a dissertation on that ;)