FTX

HesitantInvestor0

It's been a combination of investor psychology, self-fulfilling prophecies, and coincidence IMO. If people believe in the 4 year cycle, why would they buy now and not in October? Why would they sell in Q4 three years later? As long as people broadly believe it, it's going to happen until a bigger buyer breaks the trend. On the coincidence front, if you look at the highs and lows over the last couple cycles, there were really clear signs outside of any kind of bullshit theories. Rates rising, equities dropping like a rock, FTX, war, blah blah blah. It has diverged a bit over the past 9 months and I think that's because so many got burned by leverage and derivatives. Essentially, the reason things don't get totally priced in is because of the tension between people who believe in the 4 year cycle, people who don't, and people who aren't even thinking about it. It will break eventually, and there will be a ton of angry people who get caught on the rough side of a bad trade, either waiting for a time to buy that gets bid up early, or selling too early and watching it continue going, or trying to hold and sell at the right time and watching it drop hard earlier than expected. There's no legitimate reason for a 4 year cycle. The halving is irrelevant at this point, more or less. So now it's just about how long it takes for people to stop believing in it. All it will take is one time being completely blindsided, and it will happen eventually.

siammang

Be happy you don’t lose them all from FTX, Block Fi, Mt Gox, nor Gemini earns

Discokruse

In other words, ethereum is worthless, but the treasury bonds that prop up the stable coins on the layer 2 are worth more than the underlying layer 1 cryptocurrency. This is FTX and FTT token all over again, just 4 years later.

madonnatroia

yes but that's referred to the market not the process. collectible cards are also unregulated it doesn't mean a seller can take your money and not give you the goods, unregulated does not mean lawless, that's why that fat fuck over FTX is in prison now

loc710

And FTX

ancientalien47

Defined and capped dollar value\*\* Not their true dollar value. The issue of what was sold and when is only a part of the real problem. The real problem is why consumers have no effective avenue to recourse for these types of situations. Particularly the precedent set by courts need to address much closer to face value the proportionality of deceptive acts like that of FTX

Lazy-Effect4222

Sure. Lot’s of different scenarios could have happened. But what DID happen is that their investments were basically locked at the top of the bull market and forcibly sold(which alone could have implications on small cap assets) after their value crashed and THEN the funds “returned”. And infact reality is even worse. Users assets were actually sold during the bull market and then valued at the bottom of the bear market. FTX kept the price difference.

will2002g

I know some don’t agree but I keep some on Robinhood and Coinbase. My logic is simple they are publicly traded US companies. Here’s another point, when you need the actual money you have to do what? Transfer your coins back onto an exchange and then to your bank account. Again I know some don’t agree due to the crash of those other exchanges but they weren’t publicly traded companies. Once I reach my goals I will simply sell it and deposit into my bank account. And BTW nothing is safe in the absolute sense. We are all taking some kind of risk. I lost money on Voyager, FTX, & BlockFi. It good to have some stored and some on and exchange in case you need the cash. But now I only use Robinhood & Coinbase. This works for me, so take your time and slowly get back in the game.

harvested

How do bears plan to get this to 40K? What is the FTX equivalent? So many are gonna be left sidelined.

PlainPrecision

\>> FTX customers with approved claims have received up to **96.6% to 100%** of their allowed claim values (based on November 2022 bankruptcy prices). People could’ve also lost that money making terrible trades or dumping into shitcoins. They atleast got their dollar value back.

Blade_Runner_69

Polymarket is a disgrace. Anyone that uses that trash is a degenerate gambler. Look at the massive marketing push Polymarket is on at the moment. They are everywhere trying to improve image. Giving me FTX vibes before they imploded.

Lazy-Effect4222

FTX was a major exchange.

DJ_Ben_Frank

For someone with zero experience or knowledge of crypto, maybe. But saying exchanges are better security-wise than self custody on cold storage…? FTX Mt Gox Voyager QuadrigaCX Cryptopia Celsius KuCoin CoinCheck BitGrail Maybe ONLY major exchanges can help you, but that’s still a maybe.

Objective-Choice6518

Only morons believed that Guy Everyone with some common sense knew that MSTR would be the FTX of this cycle 

JeremyLinForever

The best part of the shit talkers in this sorry sub? That they are so butt deep in their altcoins they don’t know that Strategy only has 11% outstanding debt to equity, can get of all their convertible debt and still own the largest Bitcoin stack next to Satoshi publicly, and continue to sell stock to raise capital and keep the music going with their non-cumulative dividends. Stick to armchair altcoins if you don’t understand regulations for 13F filings, public disclosures that are different than other companies like BlockFi and FTX being backed by Terra Luna and other crap coins. It means peak sentiment is at its lowest, and you all will never buy when there’s blood on the streets but will only limp in when it’s at ATH.

Romsel87

So Michael Seller buys high and sells low? Is this the FTX of the bear 2026?

Ace2021

“Never worry about a thing” \- BlockFi \- Voyager \- Celcius \- FTX \- MTGox \- Quadriga The list goes on. People who held here thought they had nothing to worry about, until they did. And if the government, robinhood itself, or another entity wants to confiscate “your btc” (really just an IOU), they can.

Wheaties4brkfst

Strategy isn’t going to melt down à la FTX. What is going to happen is a slow, grinding decline over time as MSTR holders get diluted more and more to fund these dividends. Eventually they’ll just stop paying them and completely destroy their ability to raise money. Then it’ll just kinda be….there. No real developments. It’ll start to act much more like an etf and that will be that.

rolo951

FTX collapse

vegtable-jello

They’re trusted, the issue was with their lending partner Genesis Global Capital. They went bankrupt after FTX fell through. Gemini is still good in my opinion as I use their credit card and haven’t had any issues with them as a company, just have to be careful leaving crypto on exchanges and how you lend out the crypto.

Squeiner

Some people didnt think they needed a cold wallet and letf their coins on MtGox, or FTX, or Blockfi, Celsius, QuadrigaCX, Cryptopia, Bitgrail, Youbit, Einstein, Cointed, Bitcoinica, Vircurex , Coin.mx, BTC-e, Cryptsy. All of them ended up regretting their choice. Meanwhile, those of us who have cold storage have lived thru countless exchanges collapsing. I've used at least 3 now-defunct exchanges in the past. Didnt care when any of them went under cause they didnt have my coins. I have my coins. Dont take unnecessary risks. Self custody is very easy to learn. Not your keys, not your cheese

Bogdanoff_dump_it

When FTX collapsed, SOL has lost its credibility as well. Back then, I bought at $10 when everyone told me Solana was garbage.

VisiblePlatform6704

Everybody is saying MSTR will be the next FTX blacknswan event.  I think it will be USDT, and it will be HUGE, like btc to $15k huge. (Or btc to 200k if everyone gets out of shitcoins based USDT and into btc)

jawni

This sub has always been cancer, it's never been a good place for discussion, never been a good place for alpha, never been a good place for research. People here are generally *substantially* dumber than the average person on CT. It's just not sustainable to have a community whose content curation is done by popular vote when you have such varying opinions within that community. So it doesn't really matter who is wrong or right, because people don't upvote and downvote based on that. Post anything remotely positive about Cardano or Nano or Algorand or Loopring, and it would get upvoted to the top immediately. Meanwhile the coins that outperformed the market, like SOL in 2022-2024, were vehemently hated for reasons that were either patently false or were obviously going to become false. "It's only pumping for the FTX unlocks", "All the usage is fake", "Institutions won't use SOL", "It had downtime!", "It's only memes!" but anyone with a brain and the ability to do real due diligence could see how wrong all of those were or would become. Or HYPE, an extremely successful project, which used no VC money and airdropped much of the supply. This sub has a hate-boner for VCs, which would make you think HYPE would've been this sub's darling... but no. I don't even think many people here know about it. And then discovery or discussion on any new project is completely worthless here because everyone just assumes it's a cashgrab or scam without doing any critical thinking. If you use this sub, stop, and find something else. [Look into researching the way I recommend here.](np://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1h7e21t/35yo_new_to_cc/m0kzmqp/)

ReliantToker

Mathematically impossible. Luna/FTX ptsd doesnt change the numbers.

AutoModerator

Post is by: GaryChris55 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ujgvun/can_defi_replace_macro_brokers_in_2026_i_want_to/ Will start with some context first. I've been fully self custodial for a few years now, no CEX accounts, everything sits in my own wallets (after what happened with FTX I just couldn't anymore). I follow geopolitics closely and usually hold strong views I want to capitalise on. I want to print at crucial macro events, gold during rate cycles, Nasdaq around earnings season, dollar around CPI prints… but I can't. The moment I want to act on a view, I have to either open a brokerage account (counterparty risk, KYC, possible account freeze) or go to a CEX, which I won't. So I spent the last month specifically looking for on chain solutions for RWA trading. I just wanted a single trusted perp with exposure to gold, indices, commodities and forex straight from my wallet. But this space is way more crowded than I expected. From the outside it looks like a few protocols are doing this seriously, with real infrastructure to handle out of hours pricing and market open gaps, and I know that's actually hard to get right. Gains Network/gTrade has been doing RWA perps since 2022, Ostium is the newer one that's more RWA focused (gold and metals are a big chunk of their volume), and then Hyperliquid is pushing into equity style perps from the crypto side. Different tradeoffs on each. Some prioritise 24/7 availability, others seem to pause or behave differently around weekends and gaps to keep pricing accurate, which I'd actually want for something like gold. I'm still evaluating the stuff that actually matters: how the LP side economics work in practice (on a lot of these you're effectively trading against the pool, so I want to understand that before sizing up), and whether rollover rates are genuinely transparent or just hidden fees with a nicer name. Has anyone been trading RWA perps on chain for a while? What platform do you use, and which ones are actually transparent with their fee model? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

LowEffortAlpha

ADHD'er here. Utilize this down time to study bitcoins historical price, the dates, the names for all the crashes (FTX collapse, etc), the economics, money supply vs Bitcoin supply, what math problem these miners are solving, the works. Is boring and dry, but when the price come back up, you'll feel more educated on the topic, and hopefully have even more conviction than you do now. The more conviction you have, the less time your brain will spend on today's price, and more time day dreaming when you hit your target. Set a target, one for how many Bitcoin you'd like, and the price of Bitcoin. It'll give you something to work towards and look forward to.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

"$MSTR can sit for 17 months and be fine" Famous last words. All the cope narrative of MSTR gives me such LUNA/FTX vibes, along with all the famous last words of all the shit that collapsed in this space in the past.

Think-Apple3763

It was clear from the beginning of the bull run that Saylor will be the next FTX. This could get ugly.

Ididitforthelulzzz

When Binance knocked over Luna and later FTX completely out of the game, they massively profited. You can make the same argument that their clients own the BTC and not them. They still did it anyway. I don't follow your argument here.

Sweaty-Dust6405

Last bear market also had many exchanges scams like FTX and Celsius which spooked the market much more.

biggest_guru_in_town

People said it wouldn't get back up before with the FTX disaster. Look at history. This isn't even the worse dip.

Zombie4141

This always gets downvoted, but nobody ever comments. I’m a long time HODLer and don’t intend on ever not being one. But what if: Bitcoin is mostly mined by 2 mining pools. What if several governments coordinate an attack on both forcing them to use more than 51% of the energy erroneously. Causing the 51% attack. The only comment I’ve ever gotten is: “it would do much damage, until the rest of the network could reorg. And force them out.” Well it would still be a successful attack on bitcoins flawless history, causing uncertainty and panic. We’ve all seen what happens when one exchange “FTX” goes down. What happens if bitcoin is successfully hacked?

Dear-Director-6043

Hard to believe people who held through FTX collapse and SBF becoming a legendary fraud are remotely worried right now.

pickelRichard

As someone who’s seen multiple cycles it’s satisfying seeing talks of a bottom at 58k. You weren’t there for the Covid crash to 3k or the FTX crash to 15(maybe you were idk). The trend is up my friend, hold whatever you have left. Maybe even buy it back in 30 days if it’s lower so you claim the depreciation. Nothing is broken.

IndoorUseOk

“Lie”? I didn’t know you had a specific goal post in mind. It was posted a few days after fraud was revealed, but before FTX went bankrupt and before SBF was charged. Obviously people mostly post about things when something unusual or alarming happens.

DPSK7878

MSTR is the FTX of this cycle. I am patiently waiting. Bottom will be set when MSTR capitulates.

_RonPaulWasRight_

Yep. Mainly because it's been so many years now. Back when FTX hit, I'd only been in the space for a year or so. I felt I needed to give it more time. But now it's been 5+ years...and I just feel that that's long enough, especially considering the US govt has printed so many trillions in that time...and yet Bitcoin has only appreciated 13% per year since 5 years ago today. I just feel like it's not doing it's job.

Fearless-Sherbert-40

Bro you held through FTX and now you’re getting cold feet?

Comprehensive-Eye500

MSTR will be just another in the long line of catalysts (FTX, Celsius, Mt Gox, Terra Luna, Three Arrows etc.) that will create a huge draw down in Bitcoin. It’s not an if, it’s a when. I love and and am long on Bitcoin by the way but Saylor Moon is going to be part of the problem not the solution.

MarioWilson122

The price will definitely shake if something like that happens, but we've already seen major crypto failures before. Other large entities have collapsed, Bitcoin took massive hits, and still recovered. FTX, lenders, and other high-profile failures all caused panic, yet Bitcoin eventually bounced back. That's why I don't think a Strategy collapse automatically changes the long-term outlook. It would almost certainly create significant volatility and selling pressure, but that's different from proving Bitcoin itself is finished or that it has to revisit $10k–15k.

AccomplishedMany9277

Kraken is a solid first recommendation, especially post-FTX. Regulated in multiple jurisdictions, clean track record, good educational resources. Coinbase is the other obvious one for absolute beginners — slightly worse fees but the UI is the most beginner-friendly in the industry and it's publicly listed which adds a layer of accountability. For top 30 projects specifically, both have deep enough liquidity that spreads won't be an issue. The main thing to tell your friend: enable 2FA on day one, never leave large amounts on any exchange long term, and understand that "customer service exists" doesn't mean "your funds are safe if the exchange fails." Self-custody is the next step once they're comfortable with the basics.

deltamark_btc

chain doesn't tell you much about safety. hyperliquid runs an off-chain orderbook with on-chain settlement - the real risk surface is the bridge and the HLP vault, not "doesn't run on sol". jupiter perps uses the JLP pool so you're taking LP counterparty risk instead, different architecture but not obviously safer, just a different attack surface. what actually matters: treat your perp deposit like a magazine, not a savings account. load what you need for the trade, pull profits back to cold. every major perp blowup (drift, FTX-adjacent stuff, anything) hit users who left idle capital sitting there. platform choice matters way less than collateral hygiene.

jwz9904

the FTX moment has arrived.

sumtib

You are dumb as fk, YOU need to learn from history, it already happened in the past with MtGox, Celsius, FTX, Luna, and so on, Saylor is no different, Bitcoin was and will be fine, we don't need any of those scammers.

Romanizer

Also being below the 200WMA. 2022 was the exception where we spend a lot of time below that line after the FTX implosion. All other cycles only crossed it very briefly.

ardyes

March 2020 COVID crash \~10.5–10.6 million BTC in loss 2022 (FTX bottom) \~10.5–10.6 million BTC in loss Current (2026) \~10.69–10.83 million BTC in loss I think we are near the bottom.

quintavious_danilo

only because FTX happened already late in the cycle.

ubermensch1001

The reality is we could linger sub 70k for quite a while from here. Hell, even buying at 70-80k isn't even really all that bad. With that said, I think a lot of people are also severely underestimating just how fast this could get back to 100k+. Just 15 months after the collapse of FTX in November 2022 BTC was already setting a new all time high.

CryptoAnarchyst

If you believe that Bitcoin can continue after failure of Strategy, especially after this administration's antics within the crypto sector, then you are a much more naive person than anyone I know. FTX collapse nearly killed crypto and if it wasn't for people like Tom Lee and Michael Saylor, who championed the theory that Bitcoin can be used in a business model, we would not be anywhere close to where we are now. Firstly, we wouldn't have had the ETFs in place, which Michael Saylor was instrumental in assisting with the framework for the iBIT ETF (Fink has always been vocal about Saylor's assistance and continued partnership). Saylor doing what he did with Strategy is what finally drove Fink to apply for the iBIT ETF and push the approval through. Secondly, if the Strategy model fails, then so does any business case use. "JUST HODL" is a great mantra for retail people, but there is no market for Bitcoin in business and institutional world. Insurance agencies can't hold it on the books because they can't lend against it, so it is a useless asset to them. Pension funds can't hold it, nor can they hold iBIT stock in many cases. Sovereign funds are not going to touch it in current form because without strong business use there is no path towards fast adoption. That means that any hope of institutional investment in the next decade or two is gone... and it also means that the money that is in it right now will rotate elsewhere. Three, if Strategy fails, it will bring down significant regulatory restrictions from the Government. Trump has politicized Bitcoin, and that is not a good thing. Having Strategy fail means Clarity Act will be scrapped, and a new more strict version will come out. Probably something akin to what EU is doing right now. That means that not only there will be no business case use, but there will be no retail case use. Your logic assumes "everything as is" but you fail to understand that the markets will not wait for "but this is better digital money" argument. Liquidity will rotate into something new that can make them more money, plain and simple. You've seen that with AI, and the creation of the massive bubble we are in. But if Strategy fails, the Elizabeth Warrens of the world will have enough ammo to gain public support and kill any hope of future crypto growth in the US. FTX set us back years, Strategy will set us back decades if it fails.... the 900K coins hitting the market might be absorbable, but not the 4Million+ tokens which are going to be hitting the market from ETFs and retail... and if miners rotate out, and utilize their data center infrastructure for AI, then you really have nothing left. Be careful for what you wish for... Wanting Strategy to fail is wanting Bitcoin to fail... plain and simple. You can rationalize your hate any way you want but facts are simple, the only reason why FTX didn't do as much damage to crypto in the US is because it was predominantly operating in Bahamas. If it was a US based business, current situation would have been much much more dire.

CoffeeAlternative647

Same happened with MTGOX in early days and years later FTX, Quadriga, Alameda. Bitcoin not only survived, it came back stronger. Although Bitcoin will take a hit if Saylor go belly up, it is resilient enough to survive. The honey badger don't give a single F.

BrooklynNeinNein_

MSTR is not fraud though. It could be that they'll fail as a company. But not because they're fraudulent, but because their "product" didn't succeed in the market. Things like FTX were straight up fraud, MSTR is a debatable idea, but not fraud.

riscten

Market went to 16 because of FTX though. We might see something similar if shit hits the fan at one of the treasuries. Probably not Strategy, but who knows.

Jason_DeHoulo

Saylor will create a death spiral similar to what FTX did pretty soon imo

Educational_Cable405

I've had funds on Gox, Celsius, and FTX. At some point I quit blaming bad luck and admitted I keep handing my coins to whoever has the smoothest podcast voice. We don't get our main character sacrificed, we volunteer one every cycle by giving a single guy custody of everything.

EddValera

SBF was giving interviews when FTX was already just debris.

2xfun

1) don’t talk about bitcoin with anyone 2) that person is not friend 3) we don’t know if it ever go up again. This might be the downfall of Stratergy and Saylor (FTX moment)

Awkward_Potential_

It would also be the most obvious buy in history. If you were there for Mt Gox, but didn't buy, and you were there for FTX and didn't buy, you'll probably also fade the fall of Strategy.

starvoice

From what I gathered so far: A company called Strategy owns 850k Bitcoins, made a bad decision of selling some Bitcoins for liquidity a little while back. With so many Bitcoins in their wallet, investors panicked and decided to hold or sell. By the time Strategy realized it's mistake that caused it's stock to fall, they decided to get even dumber by reversing course completely and start buying Bitcoins again! This made them look like children who don't know what they are doing, and made investors panic even more (FTX moment). The best course of action at this point is for Strategy to STFU and do nothing until the crisis they caused pass. Because any action they take now will be a wrong one.

Chemfreak

They have been smart enough in their various financial instruments and strategic debt and equity financing that it's a very strong house of cards. Yea there are scenarios where it would fail, but that scenario is like Bitcoin going to $20k for a pretty extended period of time or going significantly lower than $20k. This is also discounting that they would not be active in their survival as price falls. It's not like FTX or Celsius or something like that, MSTR is a bit more sophisticated in a sense that they have protected themselves much better.

BTCMachineElf

We only went to 16k because of the FTX collapse. This time we have ETFs and treasury companys instead of FTX and Tera Luna. This is the bottom.

Clue571

Yeah since you took that text out of chatgpt, im gonna do the same. No way im reading all of this nonsense. "This write-up is a perfect example of why people should read the actual bill instead of social media summaries. You're oversimplifying a highly complex piece of legislation into a bunch of catchy talking points. The idea that a token is simply a commodity if it's open source and nobody owns more than 20% is not how securities law works in practice. Regulatory classification is far more nuanced than a single threshold. The claim that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are being permanently grandfathered as commodities is also misleading. The bill creates frameworks and criteria; it doesn't magically make regulatory questions disappear forever. Saying the Clarity Act will prevent another FTX is equally questionable. Customer asset segregation is a good safeguard, but fraud, mismanagement, and exchange failures can still happen under any regulatory regime. No law eliminates that risk. The section about stablecoin yield caps preventing another Terra-Luna collapse is also a stretch. Terra failed primarily because of flaws in its economic design, not simply because yields existed. The SEC vs. CFTC framing is another oversimplification. This isn't a battle between a "bad" regulator and a "good" regulator. The real question is whether the proposed division of authority is effective and enforceable. Finally, the political commentary about the President and his family has nothing to do with whether the legislation itself is sound. Mixing policy analysis with partisan opinions doesn't strengthen the argument. Overall, this reads less like an objective explanation of the Clarity Act and more like a collection of assumptions, speculation, and personal opinions presented as established facts." See ? Took me 30 seconds.

crazy_lolipopp

FTX 2.0 incoming

FitCompetition1804

Could be this bear market’s FTX moment. Only thing I’m nervous about is spending too much dry powder before it reaches the actual bottom.

Kitchen_Net_GME

That sudden move in 2022 from $20K to $16K was due to FTX.

Sothisismylifehuh

I've missed out of plenty of opportunities because I have been vary and suspicious. But that also helped me avoid disasters such as CEL and other platforms that promised massive yields. Same with algorithmic stablecoins like LUNA or CEXes like FTX with signup bonuses and too-big-to-fail mentality. Sounded too good to be true and wasn't worth the risks.

Kitchen_Net_GME

I think somewhere in the low to mid 50K range as well. We may have hit bottom. But we could go down to that spot. We spent quite a bit of consolidation in the price range we are currently in during 2024. I also think BTC is becoming less volume (relative to its past). I just don’t see us dropping 75% from our last all time high. Considering our last upward cycle was far less parabolic than previous rallies (percentage wise). I also think the last downward cycle should have bottomed out at $21K. Which would have been a 68% drop. But then the FTX disaster happened.

MarioWilson122

Well, since Trump didn't get him out, he'll likely be in there for quite a while. By the time he gets out, who knows what the crypto landscape will even look like. People are acting like he'll just walk out and launch another token, but technology, regulation, compliance, identity verification, AI monitoring, and fraud detection are all advancing rapidly. The industry could be a completely different beast in 20 or so years. Of course, people have short memories, so I wouldn't completely rule anything out. Still, if he does eventually launch something, it will probably be entering a much more mature and heavily scrutinized market than the one that existed during the FTX era.

Thecrookedpictures

It's not ideal I agree, none are. Been round for like 15 years of all this BS, One coin, Thodex, Bitconnect, FTX, Africrypt all huge ones too well over 3-4 billion some of them. In the end only a few will prevail

DreamingTooLong

If you don’t have control of your private keys You don’t have control of your coins If the website that has your coins disappears, so does your coins That’s the point of having a hardware wallet Remember FTX few years ago? That’s a perfect reason to use a hardware wallet

LargeSnorlax

Reddit (and especially /r/cryptocurrency) was overrun in 2020 by wallstreetbets posters. It became cool and hip to gamble irresponsibly because everyone was making money left, right and center. After the bear, none of those guys had any idea whatsoever about the space. They never looked at what they were buying, never had any idea how to make a transaction or even what the fuck Bitcoin was - They never had any need to have decentralized money, hell, their *entire identity was gambling with the most centralized money in the world*, the stock exchange. So a bunch of them quit. Became Buttcoiners. Buttcoin got the biggest population increase ever after FTX and the regular posters there today are people who bought the hottest garbage when FTX collapsed and have been calling crypto a scam because they suck at investing. Queue 2024 and Saylor. In 2024 MSTR started buying up Bitcoin wildly. A new cycle of noobs came in, buying MSTR at $300-$400 and causing 6 new Bitcoin all time highs in 2025. So you've got a whole fresh batch of institutional money who thinks they're going to be rich and think that Crypto is exactly like stocks and Saylor is a genius. And once again, just like clockwork, the cycle hits. Bitcoin goes down. MSTR goes down. WSB posters lose their shirts. What's funnier, is this is happening in the middle of one of the frothiest bubbles the stock market has ever seen, and all these clueless folks see that they could've invested in X or Y or Z and made it rich or whatever hindsight reality they've made up. Now we're back in another bear and the people who are here are people who have lost a TON of money, because they didn't do any research into the space whatsoever. None of them have any use for Bitcoin and I doubt 1/100 people who bought Bitcoin in the last run even know how to do a bitcoin transaction, let alone self custody it, which is the *entire point of owning Bitcoin in the first place*. So we're back in the same repeating situation - Before they go and join Buttcoin, the people who lost their shirts have to cope post about how crypto is a scam (obviously, because it didn't go up when they bought it) and how Quantum is going to make it obsolete or how no one uses it. It's all the same arguments, over and over again, every single time. Crypto is a space where to survive, let alone make profit, you actually have to know what you're doing. You're going to see the same sheep get slaughtered over and over again. They'll never listen to advice or to not go near frothy tops or to actually be involved in the space you're trying to make money from, but you'll sure hear from them nonstop when they pull the lever and the machine doesn't spit out coins.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

STRC and MSTR could be much larger than Luna and FTX combined. MSTR owns 4% of the total supply of BTC (over 840K BTC). Luna owned one tenth of that (about 80K). FTX owned 0. Customers had a total of around 100K BTC entangled during the downfall. Plus, an MSTR fall would have a ripple effect into other funds, custodial markets, and ETFs.

TradingBasicsToday

I get the panic. Being down 50% sucks. But no, it's not over for crypto. Solana has been through way worse. It dropped over 90% after FTX collapsed and came back to hit all-time highs. This feels terrible, but it's not the end. Crypto moves in cycles. We had a huge run, now we're in the cooldown. Sideways and dipping for months is normal. Not fun, but normal. The people who panic sell at -50% are usually the same ones who buy back at +100% later out of FOMO. That said, don't just "hold and hope." Reassess your position. Did you invest money you actually need? Did you understand Solana's tech and roadmap, or did you buy because number go up? Be honest. As for me, I'm down on some bags, up on others. That's crypto. If you believe in Solana long-term, zoom out. If you don't, cut the loss and move on. But making a decision based on fear or Reddit sentiment won't end well. What's your actual timeline for this investment? A few months or a few years? That changes everything.

ubermensch1001

This is something I've done several times, so I'll break down what I did. First time I did this was in the fall of 2020. From 2018 through then I had been steadily dollar cost averaging. However, from 2018 up until they first locked down for COVID my income and cash flow was very limited. When COVID hit though my income sky rocketed and I was aggressively dollar cost averaging throughout 2020. In the fall of 2020 I ended up getting a very small loan, about $2,500, with a very low interest rate and I used the funds to invest. The monthly payment was tiny and something I wasn't all that worried about. The second time I did this was in the fall of 2022 right before the FTX crash. I got a personal loan that had a high interest rate but I was buying at around the 200 week and knew that the gains from there would easily offset the interest I would have been paying. The monthly payments were also well within my budget and it gave me space to also continue to accumulate through dollar cost averaging. I ended up paying this loan off in early 2025, well before the full terms of the loan. By late 2023, about a year after getting the loan, I had practically doubled the original investment from this loan. I did something similar in the fall of 2024, which I still have, and also others recently here with this major sell off. Again, I kept all of this well within my budget while being able to also dollar cost average with my leftover income. I have it setup in a way where eliminating some of these loans is easy for me to do within a reasonable time frame. I would only suggest someone do this if they are very familiar with how this market works and have enough experience to know if they can emotionally handle the wild volatility. If you can buy during major dips or near bear market lows, like being around the 200 week right now, you will do quite well if you can let it sit for a couple years. I would also make sure to set this up to where the payments are well within your budget.

L3mm3SmangItGurl

I mean, isn't that kinda why we're all here? Sure, you have free will to invest in eth or sol or some other shit coin. What’s the promise tho? Give me your money and I'll give you insane ROI in a short period of time. Dude was a paper billionaire and had all sorts of insider info we would never be able to see. Anthropic, OpenAI were really good bets. Hadn't heard of either of those companies in 2022 let alone had the ability to invest in them. The FTX collapse happened before chatGPT was released. Just trying to see it from both sides. Yes, dude was a scammer. But if he was slightly less of a scammer and weathered the 2022 crash, like Binance did, he would have been able to make good on all the insane interest he was paying out to people to invest their money. Literally if the crash had happened post ChatGPT, he would have been liquid enough to stay afloat.

Hqjjciy6sJr

What's more bizarre is how FTX/SBF knew about Anthropic so early right when it was founded in 2021 and felt confident enough to invest $500 million... This was at a time when nobody outside specialized tech circles was talking about AI yet.

JeffreyDollarz

FTX2.0

classified_x

they weren't complete idiots, the guys at FTX, but the guys who flamed me after it went under and were saying the money was never gonna be returned, were. also the guys supporting Terra and bullying me before KR dude went missing

neonxmoose99

Is this SBF posting from jail or something? Who tf feels sympathetic for FTX in the big 26?

Xennenial

I bought through the 2018 crash, the COVID crash, and the FTX crash. Given how many people are currently talking shit about crypto right now, I can conclude this is the bottom or somewhere close. I have seen enough bottoms to recognize the pattern.

seambizzle1

Solana nuked the price of solana years before FTX came into the picture

filenotfounderror

FTX didnt hold anything, they were using customer funds to make these invesments.

Sacredwisp

There is very little FUD. Quantum is basically a meme, and so is MSTR selling 32 BTC. We've already retraced down the the 200 week moving average like every other bear market and hit several bottom indicators from the prior cycles at only -50%, such as over half the coins being underwater. This range was also the top in 2021, where it acted as resistance for nearly a year, and we spend 8 months accumulating here mid-cycle in 2024. We've also hit bullish divergence on the weekly RSI I believe, like we did on the FTX crash. Other than the % drawdown being lower and the mythology of "it must bottom on October", the technicals are all saying we've either bottomed already, or very close to it. I'm not saying it can't go lower. It absolutely can. I also expect we still have at least several months of chop left before it starts grinding up. That said, expecting it to crash to 50k or lower when sentiment is already shot and sellers are exhausted is wishful thinking unless we get another black swan and stock market crash. This is a fantastic price right now, and I expect we end the year on an uptrend with the next bull market started. Then, all the people who sold and are waiting for 40-50k are going to get sidelined and have to buy in higher again, pushing the market up even more.

HSuke

FTX was forced to liquidate its 8% stake in Anthropic in early 2024 for $1.3 billion. Imagine if could have held that until now.

rankinrez

This is largely how FTX was made whole. Couple of small investments in OpenAI, Antrophic etc

foxxxer22

bitcoin won't solve the problem which you mentioned. the paper money at least works also when there is a blackout, and FTX is bankrupt.

TheForesightGuy

There are still just too many Bankmann-Fried's out there, and another FTX-like scenario will hit as certainly as the Amen in a church! Can't really feel sorry for this guy.

sdea001

Strike has no fees on their daily DCA after the first week. I have been using them since FTX failed.

Low-Method3448

This is the same FUD as China banning mining, FTX collapse, Japanese carry trade implosion etc.

Subject_Ad3837

Hopefully, the cycles still hold up in 2029, but this just feels different than 2018 or 2022 due to alts never getting a proper bull run after the tariff crash and crypto market being outperformed by stocks and gold in 2025. In 2018, crypto was also less saturated and wasn't getting the same amount of negative publicity due to FTX and association with Donald Trump and his corruption schemes like Trumpcoin.

Educational_Cable405

Crypto already ran the esports experiment and it left a crater. FTX paid TSM 210 million for a ten year naming deal in 2021, Crypto.com signed Fnatic, Coinbase was plastered all over ESL events. Two years later the orgs were doing mass layoffs, TSM scrubbed the FTX name off everything, and the deals died in bankruptcy court. People aren't sleeping on esports, they watched the last cycle's money set itself on fire there.

futures_cj

The headlines aren’t even as bad as past cycles. 21-22 people were absolutely certain it was dead with regulation fears and the FTX collapse. Now it’s dead because of AI lol

aaj094

Inability to understand what I said is why people can't understand why FTX saga didn't make bitcoin die. It's because people change life stages, new people come into age brackets, world moves on. Nothing just rests on one sentiment of a point of time.

futures_cj

I remember 2021-22 when everyone was certain it was dead. FTX collapse, crypto fraud and regulation fears. Headlines were much worse than during this drop. Yet here we are again. This time not even as severe. The drops are getting smaller percentage wise each time. First around 85%, then 84%, then 77% and currently as much as 53%. Based off that I’d say 65 to 70% could be the bottom before it repeats the same cycle again.

diwalost

I think he should also file criminal suit against victims of FTX crash.. /s

Patient_Craft2195

It really depends on your location. For those in the US, you should choose Coinbase Advanced over the normal Coinbase. The fees drop from 3.74% to 0.6% for the same exact trade. This is low key a secret and a lot of people don’t even know that. When it comes to Robinhood, you should be careful for self-custody. Some plans don’t let you withdraw to your own wallet and you should definitely be avoiding the exchanges that have an “earn” that give you 8-10% APY. Half of those exchanges have blown up (FTX, Celsius, Voyager, and WazirX, which got hacked ). If you’re not located in the US, which country you live in is super important. If you drop your country, people will be able to give more specific and insightful responses.

mel2000

> btc tanked to 16k after the FTX collapse. BTC also went over 120K after the FTX collapse.

crunchyeyeball

How can you have multiple "all time" *lows* (ATL)? I see these same figures posted over & over again, but has anyone ever taken the time to *check* them? This being being a bitcoin sub, I say "***don't trust, verify***". E.g., Just looking at the most recent high & low, and a little googling: > The *lowest price of Bitcoin in 2022* was $15,760.19, which was recorded on ***November 21st, 2022***. This sharp decline followed a volatile year for the cryptocurrency market and the collapse of the FTX exchange. > Bitcoin reached its *highest price* on ***October 6, 2025*** when it hit an all-time high of $126,198.07 There are exactly **1,050 days** between November 21, 2022 and October 6, 2025.

Whole_Historian_7185

Stratagey is in a tough position. The STRC flywheel has become a $120M/month burden. Even though Strategy will probably get through this winter, what if they blew up? mt.gox and FTX did not destroy bitcoin... they just gave the rest of us better buying opertunities.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Interesting fact, the RSI for Bitcoin had dropped and was already getting into oversold territory before the FTX/Luna crash. Which made TA believe that it was a great time to buy for a bounce back.