FTX

drunkentoubib

I didn’t know FTX before it fell. To this day I don’t undertstand what happened. How did it get so far, so fast. Would have been Coinbase, binance, etc I would have understood. Not debating selfcostudy, just FTX was weird stuff.

crooks4hire

Fuck all that noise. FTX taught me to be a bitter digital hermit and keep my keys on a bolt and washer set at my house. Keep some cash in a hot wallet on your phone and the rest can live in your own vault and grow the way bitcoin was intended to grow. No staking or launching or loaning or get-rich-quick/easy shit. Just keep what you earn.

crooks4hire

Yea, none of this shit sells to folks whose bag FTX burned up

anonymousopsec1337

Most people got into crypto post FTX I feel. People should read about that…

Unable-District-3042

You’re money in your bank account is insured. If the bank goes belly-up, you still get your money. Not the case with exchanges holding your bitcoin. FTX should be a lesson to everyone. Whether you are willing to learn that lesson is on you.

Liquid_zer0

It needs to overcome a few things still on the front end of usability. Right now an average person doesn’t know how to set up a cold storage wallet, nor do they care to learn how. As simple as it seems to us, most people are tech illiterate and they don’t feel comfortable doing these sorts of transactions. Sending money with a giant wallet address that you have to read upper and lower case letters and numbers, and verify to make sure you don’t accidentally get 1 digit off is scary to many. They can leave it on the exchanges but there’s endless stories of people getting hacked, or collapses like FTX. I think it’ll get there in time but still has some kinks to work out.

Saintgein

It was the uncertainty about a war maybe starting in Iran which brought it down, after the war started there was certainty again. Also currently it's clear that the sellers are running out of steam, since at around 60k big money keeps on buying every dip. This makes it hard to go much lower, except for when some sudden black swan even happens. This is what happened in 2022 when FTX collapsed.

CuriousRaisin1447

FTX, the founder is such a great guy. I got a load of crypto 5 years back and I'm leaving it in, going to be worth loads soon

anymonero

That is not what people mean by fake exchanges. They're not mishandling funds like FTX or Binance, their only goal is to get you to deposit money and steal it at the same time.

cjsaksa

How do you mention the 2022 low and not mention FTX collapse once in the article? People just write articles to fit narratives and pump out anything.

Django_McFly

I use Coinbase, but pretty much the only "exchange" I do with them is exchanging dollars in my bank for USDC and then I buy what I want on a DEX. And as a free bridge for USDC/ETH/cbBTC. I kinda don't like them but they offer 1:1 USDC to USD on buys and sells so it's convenient. There *was* a Direct Deposit program which was nice but they got rid of it and switched to a provider I don't trust. They changed my account, gave me no notice, their attitude was "meh, I'm sure he'll notice something is up when the money is missing so why bother letting him know ahead of time?" Binance.us was always ass. Crazy fees on everything, even when you withdraw to BSC. For the tokens I buy, Coinbase withdraw fees are $0 as long as I'm not withdrawing to ETH L1. I actually liked FTX.us because they treated like 5 different stables as 1:1 with USD and supported a bunch of chains, but obviously they had issues. Kraken is a US exchange and is older than Coinbase but they didn't start accepting US bank transfers until like 6 years after Coinbase did, so they weren't a real option for me (my primary use is converting dollars in my bank for crypto) when I was getting started.

angelwolf71885

Depends because the only fake exchanges i have herd off were FTX and Binance so far and so far Coinbase and Robinhood hve been the only legit exchanges i have found so far

mustafa_khalifa

FTX looked legit at the time...

Kitchen_Net_GME

I think there were people who were fearing another FTX type of situation that could push bitcoin below 50K. I’m not sure that going to happen. My best guess is we bob up and down for a bit. I think slowly bitcoin is becoming less volatile over the years.

longReshape40

A cherry on top of the miserable cake. I think most former FTX customers can finally bury the saga behind them even though the opportunity cost (received fiat versus their crypto holdings at cycle peak) and time lost still sting

Actual-Indian

Yeah him, he was a big grifter about FTX time and that chinese girl that lacked relevance apart from reporting on SBF think her grift has changed to AI while she waits for quantum and does not age.

jaimewarlock

A lot of people like Kraken, but it has a ton of red flags. They are not only replaying all the events that occurred at FTX & Mt. Gox before they went bankrupt, but showing even more additional red flags. \- Payouts to prominent politicians. This is preparation for upcoming legal troubles. In the past small companies like Mt. Gox never did this, but crypto is getting big money now, and it is standard procedure to donate money to your favorite politician before going belly up. We saw it with FTX. \- Delays on deposits. After you manage to get past the canned AI responses to a real human, they have to escalate the issue. Deposits that use to take about an hour, now take a couple days. Note this is unrelated to their recent security issue which involved fiat transfers from banks that weren't completely finalized. As for crypto, even their BTC deposits required multiple confirmations, so this was never an issue. Their fiat security issues are just being used as a smoke screen for their failure to credit crypto deposits. \- Delays on crediting your account. Even after they confirm your deposit, it doesn't show in you account wallet. Once again, you have to jump through hoops to talk to a real human. After that, it takes several days to get credited. \- Random cancellations of accounts. This is huge. Hundreds per day. Recently, a lot of people have been complaining about their account being closed for no good reason. Of course, I don't know their circumstances. However, I do know mine. I went through their KYC, which was by far the most stringent I have ever done. I only own untainted coins bought from major exchanges. I only used Kraken for selling coins to get fiat in my bank account. I never used a VPN and could verify my IP address with my local ISP. I have never lived in or traveled to a banned country on their list. There could be no valid reason to close my account. Apparently, I am not alone in this. They are deleted now, but when I went to their Reddit thread a few weeks ago, I saw dozens of posts by people with the same complaints. \- Gas lighting customers. This is the message they send when they close accounts: "Unfortunately, we must inform you that we will be closing your Kraken account. For security purposes, we cannot disclose the reason for this action". Basically, they say you were bad, but they won't tell you why. They do this to everyone, not just a few special cases. \- Attempting to Destroy Evidence. After they closed my account, I received the following message "To protect your personal information, we ask that you delete this email thread". Note that the email thread did not include any information that they didn't already have or wasn't already available from multiple sources. The only possible motive was to avoid a paper trail showing that they were acting in bad faith. No other exchange has ever done this, but I have witnessed this behavior on several occasion by people with malicious motives. I consider it to be a red flag. I have been majorly involved in cryptocurrency since 2013. I have witnessed multiple companies go bankrupt. And in every case, before they went bankrupt, they showed at least two of the above red flags. Kraken is showing them all.

nomad2585

[don't be so lazy, or you're just intentionally lying? ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_FTX)

IronLawResearch

"Are they really going to let us do it again?" They don't let you do anything. The market makes it as hard as possible to hold through the process. You bought FTX lows because you had conviction when everyone else had fear. Most people didn't. Most people waited for certainty — and bought at $80K. The cycle doesn't get easier. You just get better at tolerating the discomfort of being early.

Possible-Class5969

Eversince the FTX event I'm already taking profits before downturns.

WeakEstablishment686

Sounds easy in retrospect. Truth is, each cycle has a new doomsday scenario where you truly can start second guessing yourself. There’s also timing, fomo, taxes, and plenty of other reasons. We never know if and when the cycle will break as well. Picture these 2 scenarios: 1. You buy at $20k last cycle miraculously despite all the negative headlines and 70% decline, feeling good about timing the bottom, even with sentiment being in the dumps. FTX collapses, one more flush to $16k, you lose 20% instantly…question everything. Sell at a loss. Swear it off for being too volatile. Never buy back in and hate it forever. Those 20k buys are now 3x at peak fear just 4 years later. 2. You time it well, buy at $30k, pumps to $70k quickly. $40k gain so you start to think that massive run up was it, you sell and celebrate a 2x gain. Pay taxes on your gains and then it falls to $55k, so you think you perfectly timed it and did well. Maybe you bought a whole bitcoin even, so you gained what…$30k after taxes? It then takes off and shoots up to 104k in a matter of weeks, you fomo back in it drops a few months later to 78k. Now what do you do. Sell and breakeven from your previous win? Hold? Even if you hold it runs up to 120k…is that enough then? It could go higher though…everyone’s saying 200k! I held this far let’s keep going. Tanks to $86k in a month and a half, then $65k. You’re down worse than you started. You can try to trade it, and with strict rules could very well make some money. But if you truly believe it’ll bounce back, which you are betting on by trading it, why not just accumulate and hold long term? Stay in it for 10, 20, 30 years. Accumulating as much as you can at decent prices might truly become life changing. Thats a bet I’m willing to make and give up short term gains and fomo and maybe not entering back at a price I like. I’m going to hold on as hard as I can to a bigger and bigger piece of an absolutely limited 21 mil supply.

Requirement-Lazy

FTX was a fucking nuke

No-Masterpiece2246

SBF's dad went to school with Gary Gensler, and his mom was in charge of some COVID grifting nonprofit. Total insiders. FTX never would've gotten off the ground without some serious backroom dealings with the Biden admin.

Successful_Taro8587

Losing so much in the FTX scandal through a forced sale at the absolute bottom.

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Post is by: Peturio and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1uydbb9/risk_analysis_on_the_largest_individual_eth_book/ Disclosure: I'm part of the team behind Sentralis (portfolio risk and scenario analysis), which produced this. Not advice; all figures are model estimates under stated assumptions. We ran a full scenario suite on Vitalik Buterin's public three-address book — the Safe holding 224k + 7k staked ETH plus the ENS hot wallet, not the $0 poisoned lookalike that circulates, and not the Ethereum Foundation (separate entity). Book: $443.9M at July-15 closes, 99.98% ETH. A one-asset book defeats most portfolio analytics by construction (crisis-correlation stress moved 1-day VaR by exactly $450, reported as the non-result it is). What survives: * **The model-risk gap:** same book, same seed — zero-drift GBM median year ≈ 0%, trailing-365d bootstrap median **−46%** (1-in-20: −65% vs −81%). A single VaR number for a book like this quietly picks a side. * **The scenario ordering:** the FTX replay is the mildest thing we ran (−30%, vs −54% for the Oct-25→Feb-26 bear leg replayed from today). Self-custody has no counterparty leg; macro is what bites. * **Exit arithmetic:** the position is \~0.9 days of the entire measured ETH tape; disciplined full exit ≈ 21 days normal / 70 crisis. No obligation forces any exit. * The January 16,384-ETH open-source funding commitment buys $31.5M today, $5.9–16.9M across the pessimist model's year. Full analysis (address verification, charts, method, limitations): [https://sentralis.io/teardowns/vitalik/](https://sentralis.io/teardowns/vitalik/) First entry in a regular series of risk teardowns. Public figures' and organizations' portfolios, free, publicly disclosed positions only. World Liberty Financial is next; suggestions for after that welcome in the comments. Corrections to the data basis too. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Romanizer

It will need a very strong catalyst or systemic failure to build up lost bear momentum. In the last cycle, the bear momentum already died off before FTX finally collapsed and led to the largest liquidation until that point and Bitcoin dropped to $16k. Many were saying it will dip further to $10k, but it didn't.

DarkDankDents

FTX was a platform to trade on that Sam embezzled money / misappropriated funds out of, whereas Trump coin was a gamble people knowingly decided to take. Yes, the coin got rugpulled, but people should have known beforehand. No one could have guessed what happened to FTX.

copyofa_

Can’t print FTX tokens to buy TrumpCoin anymore :(

Sweaty-Dust6405

It's not like 2022, it was worrisome back in 2022 because of all the fraud that went with FTX and other companies. Right now bitcoin is dropping, but without really much noise compared to 2022. I feel more confident in this bear market opposed to previous bear market.

Generationhodl

I will counter your simple math with my simple math: how many bitcoiners have been fucked by a 5$ Wrench attack? And how many bitcoiners have been fucked by a third entity holding the keys that collapsed / got hacked like MT.GOX or FTX ? So now ask yourself, where is the risk higher. Holding your own keys or letting other, strangers, hold your keys.

hussainazam

I see what you’re saying, however there has been much less volatility imo than previous cycles. The deepest parts of the previous bear markets were triggered by bearish events (FTX). We haven’t seen something similar in the current bear market.

Flying-HotPot

This one is different. All the narratives are gone and the sentiment is worse than after FTX. Bitcoin is entering into mainstream, but at the same time, the dream of mass adoption is dying a slow death. More centralised regulation, more oppressive tax regimes and more completely controlled on and off ramps everywhere. Bitcoin now has to survive the full weight of the fiat system and government trying to control and subvert it. I believe this is going to be a long uphill battle.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

It won't make a difference if there's another bullrun but it arrives too late to save MSTR. Same thing when FTX and Luna were hoping a bull market would come and save them. But it didn't happen in time.

Original-Oil-1515

Crypto was perhaps on the cusp of mass adoption, then along came the meme coin explosion, rug pulls, FTX, crypto based scams and Donald Trump and most of the public wasn’t interested in knowing the difference between stablecoins and shitcoins. So now we are entering the mass rejection phase of cryptocurrencies.

brainrotbro

Agree. Drama this cycle is pretty tame. FTX collapse had more people screaming the end of crypto.

Free_Entrance_6626

Drama wise it also seems much lighter than FTX saga or Mt. Gox even. The only thing that would increase the drama is if, for example, Strategy files for bankruptcy or is sued by the government or something. That could send BTC into the 40k range later this year.

noviwu97

That guy's life entirely depends on ETH doing well or he will be recorded in history as the biggest financial scammer, eveb bigger than Madoff and 5-6x bigger than FTX

Steamdude1

"Require proprietary products"? It was $75 and is very easy to use. You were describing a trojan hack, which would not be possible with the dongle, since the hacker would not have access to it. That's not the only reason to own it. Remember FTX and that scandal? I don't understand why anyone with more that a few hundred dollars in crypto wouldn't own one. It puts you in total control. It's the cheapest insurance you could buy. I feel like I'm missing something. There has to be a downside. You say that most people don't have a need? A need to protect their crypto from theft and the shenanigans of whatever exchange (soft wallet or whatever you call it) you would have to use otherwise? I'm confused. I don't understand why each and every one of you wouldn't own one.

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bittenbycoin

Well the bear market that followed Mt. Gox lasted around 2.5 years (30 months) before things started to turn around in mid-2016, while the post FTX / contagion bear only lasted around 6 months before bull started. Those bear markets triggers were explainable, this bear not so much other than the ETF flock decided risk on season was over, last fool holding bitcoin until next risk on season started is the biggest fool in the room. So no one knows if you'll have to wait 6 months, or 2.5 years, or longer to bust back out to green again.

Aazimoxx

>Silk Road admins Opsec fail of a private (identity linked) email address attached to a public question about some code later reused in the SR website - nothing to do with crypto. >FTX, Celsius and Binance executives have been indicted and successfully convicted for their scams. These all used old-school money systems tied to their names, not really relevant to a normal savvy crim washing 5-, 6- or 7-figure crypto, where routes through Monero are still practical. Go on, see what your ChatGPT thinks about that 🙄

Ok-Astronaut4952

You should pay attention to what you said, when you said FTX capitulation you referred to the actual events that caused that bear market. The bear market in the stock market and the LUNA/FTX disasters are why Bitcoin cratered so much in 2022. Us policy that allowed government money to supercharge all financial markets with zero percent interest rates turned the market into the most heavy risk on market that’s ever been seen. Don’t act like everything is just about the halving, it’s such an oversimplification. You sound like an idiot

bruce_cockburn

> there is hundreds of ways to mix crypto and break all traces in a decentralized way with zero risk the thief gets his stolen good impounded This reads like a speculative assertion. Crypto addresses outside of chains like Monero provide a deterministic record of exchanges. Mixers can implicate parties which are uninvolved, but they don't erase the record of transfers. Some technical skill might deliver the money to a clean KYC'd exit, but this doesn't eliminate forensic analysis and tracking of that account and any resulting legal consequences for misuse or hijacking of accounts. The larger the amount, the more difficult to obscure the off-ramp without explicit political connections. > Just needs some technical skill. You don't need a swiss banker anymore, just a programmer. A programmer that can deliver this type of laundering can earn the same money in legitimate work without the same legal risk if any step in their process is flawed. It's one thing to suggest a thing is technically possible. It's another to pull it off for small amounts where the victims are less equipped to investigate the scammer. The bigger the scam, the more risk the off-ramp to non-crypto accounts for individuals can be correlated and then proven to be associated with those public transactions. "Some technical skill" is doing a lot of lifting where Silk Road admins, FTX, Celsius and Binance executives have been indicted and successfully convicted for their scams.

HesitantInvestor0

It's been a combination of investor psychology, self-fulfilling prophecies, and coincidence IMO. If people believe in the 4 year cycle, why would they buy now and not in October? Why would they sell in Q4 three years later? As long as people broadly believe it, it's going to happen until a bigger buyer breaks the trend. On the coincidence front, if you look at the highs and lows over the last couple cycles, there were really clear signs outside of any kind of bullshit theories. Rates rising, equities dropping like a rock, FTX, war, blah blah blah. It has diverged a bit over the past 9 months and I think that's because so many got burned by leverage and derivatives. Essentially, the reason things don't get totally priced in is because of the tension between people who believe in the 4 year cycle, people who don't, and people who aren't even thinking about it. It will break eventually, and there will be a ton of angry people who get caught on the rough side of a bad trade, either waiting for a time to buy that gets bid up early, or selling too early and watching it continue going, or trying to hold and sell at the right time and watching it drop hard earlier than expected. There's no legitimate reason for a 4 year cycle. The halving is irrelevant at this point, more or less. So now it's just about how long it takes for people to stop believing in it. All it will take is one time being completely blindsided, and it will happen eventually.

siammang

Be happy you don’t lose them all from FTX, Block Fi, Mt Gox, nor Gemini earns

Discokruse

In other words, ethereum is worthless, but the treasury bonds that prop up the stable coins on the layer 2 are worth more than the underlying layer 1 cryptocurrency. This is FTX and FTT token all over again, just 4 years later.

madonnatroia

yes but that's referred to the market not the process. collectible cards are also unregulated it doesn't mean a seller can take your money and not give you the goods, unregulated does not mean lawless, that's why that fat fuck over FTX is in prison now

loc710

And FTX

ancientalien47

Defined and capped dollar value\*\* Not their true dollar value. The issue of what was sold and when is only a part of the real problem. The real problem is why consumers have no effective avenue to recourse for these types of situations. Particularly the precedent set by courts need to address much closer to face value the proportionality of deceptive acts like that of FTX

Lazy-Effect4222

Sure. Lot’s of different scenarios could have happened. But what DID happen is that their investments were basically locked at the top of the bull market and forcibly sold(which alone could have implications on small cap assets) after their value crashed and THEN the funds “returned”. And infact reality is even worse. Users assets were actually sold during the bull market and then valued at the bottom of the bear market. FTX kept the price difference.

will2002g

I know some don’t agree but I keep some on Robinhood and Coinbase. My logic is simple they are publicly traded US companies. Here’s another point, when you need the actual money you have to do what? Transfer your coins back onto an exchange and then to your bank account. Again I know some don’t agree due to the crash of those other exchanges but they weren’t publicly traded companies. Once I reach my goals I will simply sell it and deposit into my bank account. And BTW nothing is safe in the absolute sense. We are all taking some kind of risk. I lost money on Voyager, FTX, & BlockFi. It good to have some stored and some on and exchange in case you need the cash. But now I only use Robinhood & Coinbase. This works for me, so take your time and slowly get back in the game.

harvested

How do bears plan to get this to 40K? What is the FTX equivalent? So many are gonna be left sidelined.

PlainPrecision

\>> FTX customers with approved claims have received up to **96.6% to 100%** of their allowed claim values (based on November 2022 bankruptcy prices). People could’ve also lost that money making terrible trades or dumping into shitcoins. They atleast got their dollar value back.

Blade_Runner_69

Polymarket is a disgrace. Anyone that uses that trash is a degenerate gambler. Look at the massive marketing push Polymarket is on at the moment. They are everywhere trying to improve image. Giving me FTX vibes before they imploded.

Lazy-Effect4222

FTX was a major exchange.

DJ_Ben_Frank

For someone with zero experience or knowledge of crypto, maybe. But saying exchanges are better security-wise than self custody on cold storage…? FTX Mt Gox Voyager QuadrigaCX Cryptopia Celsius KuCoin CoinCheck BitGrail Maybe ONLY major exchanges can help you, but that’s still a maybe.

Objective-Choice6518

Only morons believed that Guy Everyone with some common sense knew that MSTR would be the FTX of this cycle 

JeremyLinForever

The best part of the shit talkers in this sorry sub? That they are so butt deep in their altcoins they don’t know that Strategy only has 11% outstanding debt to equity, can get of all their convertible debt and still own the largest Bitcoin stack next to Satoshi publicly, and continue to sell stock to raise capital and keep the music going with their non-cumulative dividends. Stick to armchair altcoins if you don’t understand regulations for 13F filings, public disclosures that are different than other companies like BlockFi and FTX being backed by Terra Luna and other crap coins. It means peak sentiment is at its lowest, and you all will never buy when there’s blood on the streets but will only limp in when it’s at ATH.

Romsel87

So Michael Seller buys high and sells low? Is this the FTX of the bear 2026?

Ace2021

“Never worry about a thing” \- BlockFi \- Voyager \- Celcius \- FTX \- MTGox \- Quadriga The list goes on. People who held here thought they had nothing to worry about, until they did. And if the government, robinhood itself, or another entity wants to confiscate “your btc” (really just an IOU), they can.

Wheaties4brkfst

Strategy isn’t going to melt down à la FTX. What is going to happen is a slow, grinding decline over time as MSTR holders get diluted more and more to fund these dividends. Eventually they’ll just stop paying them and completely destroy their ability to raise money. Then it’ll just kinda be….there. No real developments. It’ll start to act much more like an etf and that will be that.

rolo951

FTX collapse

vegtable-jello

They’re trusted, the issue was with their lending partner Genesis Global Capital. They went bankrupt after FTX fell through. Gemini is still good in my opinion as I use their credit card and haven’t had any issues with them as a company, just have to be careful leaving crypto on exchanges and how you lend out the crypto.

Squeiner

Some people didnt think they needed a cold wallet and letf their coins on MtGox, or FTX, or Blockfi, Celsius, QuadrigaCX, Cryptopia, Bitgrail, Youbit, Einstein, Cointed, Bitcoinica, Vircurex , Coin.mx, BTC-e, Cryptsy. All of them ended up regretting their choice. Meanwhile, those of us who have cold storage have lived thru countless exchanges collapsing. I've used at least 3 now-defunct exchanges in the past. Didnt care when any of them went under cause they didnt have my coins. I have my coins. Dont take unnecessary risks. Self custody is very easy to learn. Not your keys, not your cheese

Bogdanoff_dump_it

When FTX collapsed, SOL has lost its credibility as well. Back then, I bought at $10 when everyone told me Solana was garbage.

VisiblePlatform6704

Everybody is saying MSTR will be the next FTX blacknswan event.  I think it will be USDT, and it will be HUGE, like btc to $15k huge. (Or btc to 200k if everyone gets out of shitcoins based USDT and into btc)

jawni

This sub has always been cancer, it's never been a good place for discussion, never been a good place for alpha, never been a good place for research. People here are generally *substantially* dumber than the average person on CT. It's just not sustainable to have a community whose content curation is done by popular vote when you have such varying opinions within that community. So it doesn't really matter who is wrong or right, because people don't upvote and downvote based on that. Post anything remotely positive about Cardano or Nano or Algorand or Loopring, and it would get upvoted to the top immediately. Meanwhile the coins that outperformed the market, like SOL in 2022-2024, were vehemently hated for reasons that were either patently false or were obviously going to become false. "It's only pumping for the FTX unlocks", "All the usage is fake", "Institutions won't use SOL", "It had downtime!", "It's only memes!" but anyone with a brain and the ability to do real due diligence could see how wrong all of those were or would become. Or HYPE, an extremely successful project, which used no VC money and airdropped much of the supply. This sub has a hate-boner for VCs, which would make you think HYPE would've been this sub's darling... but no. I don't even think many people here know about it. And then discovery or discussion on any new project is completely worthless here because everyone just assumes it's a cashgrab or scam without doing any critical thinking. If you use this sub, stop, and find something else. [Look into researching the way I recommend here.](np://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1h7e21t/35yo_new_to_cc/m0kzmqp/)

ReliantToker

Mathematically impossible. Luna/FTX ptsd doesnt change the numbers.

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Post is by: GaryChris55 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ujgvun/can_defi_replace_macro_brokers_in_2026_i_want_to/ Will start with some context first. I've been fully self custodial for a few years now, no CEX accounts, everything sits in my own wallets (after what happened with FTX I just couldn't anymore). I follow geopolitics closely and usually hold strong views I want to capitalise on. I want to print at crucial macro events, gold during rate cycles, Nasdaq around earnings season, dollar around CPI prints… but I can't. The moment I want to act on a view, I have to either open a brokerage account (counterparty risk, KYC, possible account freeze) or go to a CEX, which I won't. So I spent the last month specifically looking for on chain solutions for RWA trading. I just wanted a single trusted perp with exposure to gold, indices, commodities and forex straight from my wallet. But this space is way more crowded than I expected. From the outside it looks like a few protocols are doing this seriously, with real infrastructure to handle out of hours pricing and market open gaps, and I know that's actually hard to get right. Gains Network/gTrade has been doing RWA perps since 2022, Ostium is the newer one that's more RWA focused (gold and metals are a big chunk of their volume), and then Hyperliquid is pushing into equity style perps from the crypto side. Different tradeoffs on each. Some prioritise 24/7 availability, others seem to pause or behave differently around weekends and gaps to keep pricing accurate, which I'd actually want for something like gold. I'm still evaluating the stuff that actually matters: how the LP side economics work in practice (on a lot of these you're effectively trading against the pool, so I want to understand that before sizing up), and whether rollover rates are genuinely transparent or just hidden fees with a nicer name. Has anyone been trading RWA perps on chain for a while? What platform do you use, and which ones are actually transparent with their fee model? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

LowEffortAlpha

ADHD'er here. Utilize this down time to study bitcoins historical price, the dates, the names for all the crashes (FTX collapse, etc), the economics, money supply vs Bitcoin supply, what math problem these miners are solving, the works. Is boring and dry, but when the price come back up, you'll feel more educated on the topic, and hopefully have even more conviction than you do now. The more conviction you have, the less time your brain will spend on today's price, and more time day dreaming when you hit your target. Set a target, one for how many Bitcoin you'd like, and the price of Bitcoin. It'll give you something to work towards and look forward to.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

"$MSTR can sit for 17 months and be fine" Famous last words. All the cope narrative of MSTR gives me such LUNA/FTX vibes, along with all the famous last words of all the shit that collapsed in this space in the past.

Think-Apple3763

It was clear from the beginning of the bull run that Saylor will be the next FTX. This could get ugly.

Ididitforthelulzzz

When Binance knocked over Luna and later FTX completely out of the game, they massively profited. You can make the same argument that their clients own the BTC and not them. They still did it anyway. I don't follow your argument here.

Sweaty-Dust6405

Last bear market also had many exchanges scams like FTX and Celsius which spooked the market much more.

biggest_guru_in_town

People said it wouldn't get back up before with the FTX disaster. Look at history. This isn't even the worse dip.

Zombie4141

This always gets downvoted, but nobody ever comments. I’m a long time HODLer and don’t intend on ever not being one. But what if: Bitcoin is mostly mined by 2 mining pools. What if several governments coordinate an attack on both forcing them to use more than 51% of the energy erroneously. Causing the 51% attack. The only comment I’ve ever gotten is: “it would do much damage, until the rest of the network could reorg. And force them out.” Well it would still be a successful attack on bitcoins flawless history, causing uncertainty and panic. We’ve all seen what happens when one exchange “FTX” goes down. What happens if bitcoin is successfully hacked?

Dear-Director-6043

Hard to believe people who held through FTX collapse and SBF becoming a legendary fraud are remotely worried right now.

pickelRichard

As someone who’s seen multiple cycles it’s satisfying seeing talks of a bottom at 58k. You weren’t there for the Covid crash to 3k or the FTX crash to 15(maybe you were idk). The trend is up my friend, hold whatever you have left. Maybe even buy it back in 30 days if it’s lower so you claim the depreciation. Nothing is broken.

IndoorUseOk

“Lie”? I didn’t know you had a specific goal post in mind. It was posted a few days after fraud was revealed, but before FTX went bankrupt and before SBF was charged. Obviously people mostly post about things when something unusual or alarming happens.

DPSK7878

MSTR is the FTX of this cycle. I am patiently waiting. Bottom will be set when MSTR capitulates.

_RonPaulWasRight_

Yep. Mainly because it's been so many years now. Back when FTX hit, I'd only been in the space for a year or so. I felt I needed to give it more time. But now it's been 5+ years...and I just feel that that's long enough, especially considering the US govt has printed so many trillions in that time...and yet Bitcoin has only appreciated 13% per year since 5 years ago today. I just feel like it's not doing it's job.

Fearless-Sherbert-40

Bro you held through FTX and now you’re getting cold feet?

Comprehensive-Eye500

MSTR will be just another in the long line of catalysts (FTX, Celsius, Mt Gox, Terra Luna, Three Arrows etc.) that will create a huge draw down in Bitcoin. It’s not an if, it’s a when. I love and and am long on Bitcoin by the way but Saylor Moon is going to be part of the problem not the solution.

MarioWilson122

The price will definitely shake if something like that happens, but we've already seen major crypto failures before. Other large entities have collapsed, Bitcoin took massive hits, and still recovered. FTX, lenders, and other high-profile failures all caused panic, yet Bitcoin eventually bounced back. That's why I don't think a Strategy collapse automatically changes the long-term outlook. It would almost certainly create significant volatility and selling pressure, but that's different from proving Bitcoin itself is finished or that it has to revisit $10k–15k.

AccomplishedMany9277

Kraken is a solid first recommendation, especially post-FTX. Regulated in multiple jurisdictions, clean track record, good educational resources. Coinbase is the other obvious one for absolute beginners — slightly worse fees but the UI is the most beginner-friendly in the industry and it's publicly listed which adds a layer of accountability. For top 30 projects specifically, both have deep enough liquidity that spreads won't be an issue. The main thing to tell your friend: enable 2FA on day one, never leave large amounts on any exchange long term, and understand that "customer service exists" doesn't mean "your funds are safe if the exchange fails." Self-custody is the next step once they're comfortable with the basics.

deltamark_btc

chain doesn't tell you much about safety. hyperliquid runs an off-chain orderbook with on-chain settlement - the real risk surface is the bridge and the HLP vault, not "doesn't run on sol". jupiter perps uses the JLP pool so you're taking LP counterparty risk instead, different architecture but not obviously safer, just a different attack surface. what actually matters: treat your perp deposit like a magazine, not a savings account. load what you need for the trade, pull profits back to cold. every major perp blowup (drift, FTX-adjacent stuff, anything) hit users who left idle capital sitting there. platform choice matters way less than collateral hygiene.

jwz9904

the FTX moment has arrived.

sumtib

You are dumb as fk, YOU need to learn from history, it already happened in the past with MtGox, Celsius, FTX, Luna, and so on, Saylor is no different, Bitcoin was and will be fine, we don't need any of those scammers.

Romanizer

Also being below the 200WMA. 2022 was the exception where we spend a lot of time below that line after the FTX implosion. All other cycles only crossed it very briefly.

ardyes

March 2020 COVID crash \~10.5–10.6 million BTC in loss 2022 (FTX bottom) \~10.5–10.6 million BTC in loss Current (2026) \~10.69–10.83 million BTC in loss I think we are near the bottom.

quintavious_danilo

only because FTX happened already late in the cycle.

ubermensch1001

The reality is we could linger sub 70k for quite a while from here. Hell, even buying at 70-80k isn't even really all that bad. With that said, I think a lot of people are also severely underestimating just how fast this could get back to 100k+. Just 15 months after the collapse of FTX in November 2022 BTC was already setting a new all time high.

CryptoAnarchyst

If you believe that Bitcoin can continue after failure of Strategy, especially after this administration's antics within the crypto sector, then you are a much more naive person than anyone I know. FTX collapse nearly killed crypto and if it wasn't for people like Tom Lee and Michael Saylor, who championed the theory that Bitcoin can be used in a business model, we would not be anywhere close to where we are now. Firstly, we wouldn't have had the ETFs in place, which Michael Saylor was instrumental in assisting with the framework for the iBIT ETF (Fink has always been vocal about Saylor's assistance and continued partnership). Saylor doing what he did with Strategy is what finally drove Fink to apply for the iBIT ETF and push the approval through. Secondly, if the Strategy model fails, then so does any business case use. "JUST HODL" is a great mantra for retail people, but there is no market for Bitcoin in business and institutional world. Insurance agencies can't hold it on the books because they can't lend against it, so it is a useless asset to them. Pension funds can't hold it, nor can they hold iBIT stock in many cases. Sovereign funds are not going to touch it in current form because without strong business use there is no path towards fast adoption. That means that any hope of institutional investment in the next decade or two is gone... and it also means that the money that is in it right now will rotate elsewhere. Three, if Strategy fails, it will bring down significant regulatory restrictions from the Government. Trump has politicized Bitcoin, and that is not a good thing. Having Strategy fail means Clarity Act will be scrapped, and a new more strict version will come out. Probably something akin to what EU is doing right now. That means that not only there will be no business case use, but there will be no retail case use. Your logic assumes "everything as is" but you fail to understand that the markets will not wait for "but this is better digital money" argument. Liquidity will rotate into something new that can make them more money, plain and simple. You've seen that with AI, and the creation of the massive bubble we are in. But if Strategy fails, the Elizabeth Warrens of the world will have enough ammo to gain public support and kill any hope of future crypto growth in the US. FTX set us back years, Strategy will set us back decades if it fails.... the 900K coins hitting the market might be absorbable, but not the 4Million+ tokens which are going to be hitting the market from ETFs and retail... and if miners rotate out, and utilize their data center infrastructure for AI, then you really have nothing left. Be careful for what you wish for... Wanting Strategy to fail is wanting Bitcoin to fail... plain and simple. You can rationalize your hate any way you want but facts are simple, the only reason why FTX didn't do as much damage to crypto in the US is because it was predominantly operating in Bahamas. If it was a US based business, current situation would have been much much more dire.

CoffeeAlternative647

Same happened with MTGOX in early days and years later FTX, Quadriga, Alameda. Bitcoin not only survived, it came back stronger. Although Bitcoin will take a hit if Saylor go belly up, it is resilient enough to survive. The honey badger don't give a single F.

BrooklynNeinNein_

MSTR is not fraud though. It could be that they'll fail as a company. But not because they're fraudulent, but because their "product" didn't succeed in the market. Things like FTX were straight up fraud, MSTR is a debatable idea, but not fraud.

riscten

Market went to 16 because of FTX though. We might see something similar if shit hits the fan at one of the treasuries. Probably not Strategy, but who knows.

Jason_DeHoulo

Saylor will create a death spiral similar to what FTX did pretty soon imo

Educational_Cable405

I've had funds on Gox, Celsius, and FTX. At some point I quit blaming bad luck and admitted I keep handing my coins to whoever has the smoothest podcast voice. We don't get our main character sacrificed, we volunteer one every cycle by giving a single guy custody of everything.

EddValera

SBF was giving interviews when FTX was already just debris.

2xfun

1) don’t talk about bitcoin with anyone 2) that person is not friend 3) we don’t know if it ever go up again. This might be the downfall of Stratergy and Saylor (FTX moment)