FTX

FriendsMade_MeDoIt

Kinda feels like the vibe just matured tbh. Back then everyone I knew was hyped on “next ETH killer” type plays, and group chats were just nonstop altcoin shilling. Now those same people are way more cautious after getting burned on stuff like LUNA and FTX. I don’t think it’s just one thing, more like a combo of big blowups + people realizing a lot of projects didn’t deliver. So sentiment shifted toward “stick with what actually survived.” Even in my circle, the convo went from chasing random alts to mostly BTC/ETH and maybe a few picks people actually understand. The hype isn’t gone, it’s just way more selective now. Feels less like a free-for-all and more like people actually questioning things before piling in.

2LostFlamingos

There is no staking of bitcoin. What someone calls this is you lending them your bitcoin. They re-lend it to someone else who sells it short. The intermediary collects a fee for this, from which they give you a small percentage as your “staking reward.” No it is not safe. See Celsius, BlockFi, FTX, as a few examples.

Drumroll-PH

It’s basically the market maturing after getting burned. After things like FTX and Terra (LUNA) collapsed, people stopped trusting hype and started focusing on what actually survives. That’s why most attention shifted to Bitcoin and Ethereum, they proved they can last through cycles. The rest didn’t necessarily die, they just lost credibility and narrative.

NotSoSchrodinger

I don’t think people just got more negative. Feels more like the market got a lot harsher about what it’s willing to trust. LUNA and FTX didn’t just wipe out capital, they kind of killed that old reflex where people would give alt narratives loads of benefit of the doubt for way too long. Then this cycle had a much clearer institutional bid for BTC, and a bit for ETH, so capital didn’t really spread the same way it used to in older retail-heavy runs. So to me that’s the shift. Not “people stopped caring about ecosystems”, more that liquidity, survivability and actual demand matter a lot more now, and most alts don’t get trusted by default anymore.

cashflashmil

Yeah, the shift is real. A big part of it is that the market got much less forgiving after LUNA and FTX. Those blowups didn’t just destroy capital - they broke trust in a huge part of the old “ecosystem growth” narrative, and research on FTX’s collapse even points to Terra-Luna as the pivotal shock that worsened FTX’s liquidity fragility. The second change is structural. This cycle, a lot more capital is flowing into Bitcoin through ETFs and other institutional channels, which has changed how liquidity enters the market and made BTC much more resilient than in older retail-led cycles. That has hurt alt sentiment. Bitcoin dominance has been sitting around the high-50s, and the usual altcoin season indicators have stayed weak, which tells you capital is still concentrating in BTC rather than spreading across the market the way people got used to in earlier cycles. So I don’t think people suddenly stopped caring about ecosystems. It’s more that the market now cares a lot more about liquidity, survivability, and where real demand is coming from. BTC has an institutional bid. ETH still has relevance. BNB has a functioning exchange-driven ecosystem. A lot of other large caps now get treated as legacy narratives until they prove they still matter. That’s why the vibe feels harsher now. It’s not just cynicism - the market got burned, then matured, and now it’s a lot less willing to give altcoins the benefit of the doubt.

kitbiggz

The best days for crypto gains are probably over for most normal traders. All the wild swings, flash crashes and drama of the past are gone. Mainly because CZ, Sam and FTX and a lot of other wild cards got arrested. Crypto is under full control by the Wallstreet elites now.

Tebasaki

Does that mean he also sold his FTX too?

Middle-Musician-7245

There is always a risk when someone else is custoding the assets, we saw that on Celsius and some FTX and some others more, in this case check hodl hodl, this one i think uses multisg scrow, but pleade before, make your research . Usually the better conditions on lending , less advantage on custody, hodlhodl.com is not as great as ledn, but nobody is custoding

rayven1lk

I had the same reaction. I went in expecting a takedown of actual scams like FTX, Celsius Network, pump-and-dumps, fake yield products, influencer grifts, etc. There’s more than enough real material there. Instead, it felt like the conclusion was already decided first: all crypto = one BIG scam, and then everything got filtered through that lens. A few contradictions / selective points stood out: 1. Bringing up David Chaum as if his criticism means digital currency itself is nonsense. Chaum literally spent decades building digital cash systems before Bitcoin existed. If he calls Bitcoin primitive, that’s not the same as saying the whole concept is fraudulent. 2. Conflating scams built **on top of crypto rails** with the rails themselves. FTX was fraud. Celsius Network was reckless nonsense. By that logic, banking fraud would mean banks themselves are scams. 3. Acting like criminal usage is unique to crypto while ignoring cash, shell companies, laundering through traditional finance, etc. Bad actors use whatever works. 4. Calling the whole ecosystem worthless while barely acknowledging real existing use cases like stablecoin settlement, cross-border transfers, tokenization pilots, and programmable settlement experiments. You can debate scale or future relevance, but pretending zero utility exists is weak analysis. 5. Using experts selectively. If one technical critic says Bitcoin has flaws, that becomes gospel. But experts who see legitimate innovation get ignored. 6. Dismissing Bitcoin as nonsense while skipping the genuinely novel achievement of decentralized double-spend prevention without a central issuer. You can dislike it and still admit that mattered. I really wanted to like it because I’m all for scams being exposed. But calling the entire space a scam is ignorant at best, delusional at worst.

reggieLedoux26

He deliberately conflates the fraud of FTX with the utility of blockchain

courtesy_patroll

His points are shallow. He argued that Bitcoin's code can't be trusted because SBF "changed" the code on FTX. SBF didn't change any code he just diverted funds, and even if he did change code, it has no bearing on BTC.

sam-sung-sv

Correct. Both were released at a good time (FTX implosion, crime is legal now)

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Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1swqrtr/blackrocks_bitcoin_etf_options_market_just/ This is the kind of milestone that reads like a typo, until you check through the numbers. IBIT options open interest on Nasdaq hit $27.61 billion last week, overtaking Deribit's $27 billion. This marks the first time a regulated US product has taken the top position from Deribit, which has operated since 2016 and has been the dominant venue for crypto options globally. Yes, that track record spans multiple bull markets, the 2021 peak, the FTX collapse, and everything else that's happened since. But closing that gap? Only took less than two years. Frame it this way to recognise the gravity of what this means: Deribit represents the platform where professional options traders, hedge funds, and market makers have priced Bitcoin optionality for most of its derivatives history. When analysts talk about implied volatility, skew, max pain, or put/call ratios, the data they're pulling is overwhelmingly Deribit data. It has been the authoritative source of how the market prices risk and expected movement in Bitcoin. That IBIT options have surpassed it says several things simultaneously: * Institutional capital entering throug the ETF wrapper is now large enough to generate a derivatives ecosystem of its own * This ecosystem is built inside of US regulation (on exchanges, with US market structure) * Its investor profile is significantly different (longer-term, more patient / less 'degen' buyer base) Most structurally important: as [IBIT options become the dominant venue, the pricing of Bitcoin risk increasingly happens on regulated infrastructure](https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-etf-inflows-turn-fully-positive-across-key-timeframes-led-by-blackrocks-ibit/). That has real implications for how Bitcoin fits into the broader risk framework of institutional portfolios, how it gets hedged by major asset managers, and arguably how it gets valued. If the venue where risk gets priced shifts from an offshore platform to a Nasdaq-listed product, the asset class has completed a very significant leg of its institutional integration. Deribit is a Coinbase subsidiary now. It isn't going anywhere. But the fact that IBIT, a product that didn't exist in 2024, just took the top position is a data point that tells you more about the velocity of institutional Bitcoin adoption than almost any other single number this year. The pace of this is not normal. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

cooltone

I think everyone has their own theory. I came to the conclusion that the underlying power-law behaviour reveals itself when speculation dries up. From this I predicted ~20k$ would be the bottom. The price stabilised at ~20k$ for a few weeks and I bought. Then FTX tanked the price down to ~25k$. I was gutted, but expected the price to rally back to 20k$ and it did in a couple of weeks. Throughout this I had some BTC from the start of the cycle and watched it get trashed, but I was confident the power-law behaviour would bring it back and it did.

Romanizer

Personally, I see a accumulation phase between bear and bull market which started last week. In the last cycle that happened in August 2022, but was interrupted by the FTX Liquidation. But I agree that with breaking that level mentioned we are going back to full bull mode.

Muted_Adagio2780

FTX

Salamandrine88

The "audits mean nothing" hill is the correct one to die on. Mazars literally gave FTX a clean report 3 months before they imploded mate, absolute state. 8 years without pausing withdrawals > any PDF. Been on Mex and Deribit for derivatives, different flavour of boring but both pass the checklist.

Left_Entrepreneur918

Yeah after 7 years I deleted the apps, just DCA and once a month transfer to hardware wallet. Btc at almost 80k during a bear is insane to me. Now in 2022 I was watching and fretting every hour after FTX, I had made huge purchases all the way down from 50k to 40k to 30k, 20k and watching all that investment tank at 15k, that was stressful. But I held, and still hold

never_safe_for_life

When the tide gos out we see who’s naked. So why didn’t Tether collapse when FTX went down and contagion rekt everyone else in the space? Also the last time I heard this exact same song and dance. Answer: Tether is probably sufficiently collateralized. Do we have to trust them? Hell no. Are they secretly running a scam so vast it’s capable of bringing down the entire space? Also no.

Grunblau

It is manipulated, clearly… I just wish that CZ would stop liquidating longs and start clearing out the shorts. In the FTX trial, SBF’s cohorts acknowledged his directive to keep BTC under $60K.

Liskpro_com

Honestly, whether you're waiting for 2028 or not, the key question is: where are you holding that savings in the meantime? A few options people consider: \- **Fiat savings account;** easy, but inflation eats into it loke crazy. \- **Buying Bitcoin gradually now** (DCA): many would argue waiting for a "perfect moment" is just market timing, which rarely works out. My take: always buy. It's always the right moment. \- **Stablecoins**: crypto exposure without volatility, but counterparty risk exists If you do end up holding Bitcoin, whether now or in 2028, make sure it's in self-custody, not on an exchange. Exchanges can freeze, get hacked, or go under (see FTX a few years back). That's where a hardware wallet matters (Skip Ledger, take a look at Jade, Satochip...) If budget is a concern, Satochip is worth a look, it's a fully open-source card-based wallet at €25, works with Sparrow and BitcoinKeeper (mobile). Not your keys, not your coins. But honestly? The "wait until 2028" strategy has real opportunity cost risk. Lots of people said the same thing in 2020.

NeutralSpacerx

Been through Mt.Gox aftermath, Celsius, FTX and a couple of smaller ones you've probably forgotten about and your takeaway is the right one. CEO going on a live stream within hours instead of hiding behind a comms team was the part that stood out to me too, most execs in this industry pull a disappearing act for 48-72h while their lawyers in X lol write something that says nothing. Your last line is the real lesson though a decent outcome once doesn't mean you rely on it twice.

Internet_is_tough

Why write this whole post if you don't understand what you are writing? There is no forced liquidation. STRC is s preferred stock. It's not a loan. He doesn't owe back any principle. The dividend is engeneered to keep it at par at 100$, but it's not a bond. There is no legal obligation to pay a dividend. They can suspend it as any company can suspend any dividend. This will kill the product obviously, but there is no liquidations. Strategy is not FTX.

Happy-Control5922

DCA set on SOL after the FTX crash. Didn’t want to look at my account again. Ended up accumulating a few 100 at the bottom. Not exciting but was a nice surprise when I noticed it a few months later

Maleficent_Sound_919

Please stop… they don’t have revenue that comes anywhere close to what they are doing… Ofc you have to question things look how FTX and other stuff went Those where such “solid” businesses no one saw what was happening My question is the not selling part how is that possible…

Schwoanz

Probably no one here has heard about Yield App. They went bankrupt nearly 20 months after the FTX collapse due to… FTX. So in some cases you have to be careful, even when many months have passed after some incident. I don’t think Bybit is in trouble and I actually like the platform but you never know for sure in the crypto industry.

Crazywar17

I won’t argue. But I lost money on FTX, which is basically why I’m in such a good mood about this whole Bybit situation. Would it be fair to say I’ve evened the score and it’s now 1:1? lol

ownseagls

None. The time to get in was after FTX the next time to get in is if or when micro strategy collapses.

azdcaz

People conveniently forget all the bs that BTC has survived in the past. Mt Gox was insane. FTX, Celsius, Voyager, Terra Luna etc etc all collapsing at once was pretty serious. Yet here we are watching BTC being woven into the fabric of modern financial markets. Even if MSTR has to sell a portion (ppl seem to think they can only sell 100% of their bitcoin), Bitcoin will be ok over time.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

For those still hopeful that $60K might have been the bottom, I hate to bring this up, but we still have the Microstrategy specter looming over the market. Some people still believe it won't be a black swan event like FTX, or not have any impact at all. Go look at how STRC works. STRC shows that the Strategy's BTC gamble is showing cracks during this bear market, to the point that Strategy is getting really desperate and throwing one last do or die gambit. But STRC is also already showing cracks right from the start.

MrBtotheTC

there’s no reason for it to drop anymore there’s no catalyst for it. The only reason we drop last time is because of FTX.

DemandNew8116

Interesting. Steel man argument is that the second 2021 bull run was paper bitcoin, basically unstable raising of the price with very little volume (unlike 2021) caused by FTX and other shenaningans and that ended spectacularily

Romanizer

I am looking at a change of momentum (MACD crossover on the weekly). In August 2022, the price momentum changed from downwards to sideways. Without the FTX crash, it would have stayed in the $20k area until the bull run began. Also consider that ATH of last cycle was in March 2024, just before the halving.

Abject-Stretch-1187

Exactly. Without FTX, we wouldn’t have smelled 16k BTC. For it to go lower this time, bears will have to tell us exactly what would cause it to go lower other than “patterns” They have no legitimate reason but charts. 

Romanizer

The last cycle's bear market ended in August 2022. We only had a crash afterwards due to FTX collapse. Bear markets get shorter with every cycle.

Nomadictionnn

Solid post and genuinely wish more people did this due diligence before throwing money on random platforms. I've been around since the Mt. Gox days and lost a good chunk on QuadrigaCX back in 2019, so yeah, the "it won't happen to me" mindset is exactly how it happens. I'd add one more thing to your checklist though operational track record under stress. Plenty of exchanges look great on paper with all the licenses and PoR, but when the market actually goes crazy (May 2021 flash crash, Luna, FTX week) their engines freeze, withdrawals slow to a crawl, or positions get liquidated at weird prices. I only really trust platforms that have been through multiple cycles without losing customer funds or pulling shady moves during volatility. The ones that have been running clean for 10+ years in this industry you can count on one hand honestly. Licensing is necessary but not sufficient imo. FTX had licenses too.

-irx

In a world where people uses common sense and have some idea of market cycles. Remember FTX collapse? That was massive buy signal and market bottom.

Revolutionary-Cup78

All are extremely unlikely, but thet are very real. Completely unexpected vulnerability (bitmain as an example), successful quantum attack, a new fork controversy, and the most likely I'll mention: 1) Simply not reaching the expected returns. It could be that 60k was already the bottom and that the price in 3 years is way below your target. 2) you forget your wallet credentials, your wallet credentials get stolen, or if using a custodian, having this custodian become insolvent FTX style

originalrocket

It's Celsius, FTX, Luna, and the rest all over again.

missourifats

I had the luxury of getting into bitcoin just BEFORE this happened. I had stacked up a decent little pile, and was digesting podcasts. I kept hearing about cold storage, but seed phrases? Lose it and youre toast? I put it off. Then FTX died. And I knew just enough to know that the main stream narrative of "See! Crypto and Bitcoin is all bullshit!" was preying on people's ignorance. So I wasn't shaken as I wasn't exposed to FTX. But I very suddenly had an eye opening real time experience to reinforce this idea. Not your keys. Not your coins. I now have 3 wallets.

harvested

40K is silly, not gonna happen. Bit I think price dropped below power law band at FTX low didn't it?

Mammoth-Birthday-437

46 days of negative funding is nuts. last time this happened post-FTX the snap back was brutal though, like a coiled spring. shorts get comfortable, open interest builds up, then one catalyst and it all unwinds fast. doesnt mean it happens tomorrow but the setup looks similar to late 2022 before the rally started

Romanizer

I would say maximum of 2 months. The last bear market ended in August 2022 with the MACD crossover. We would have gone sideways from there on out, if FTX did not implode afterwards. It just wouldn't fit the cycle narrative (together with some other points).

No-Masterpiece2246

FTX settlements paying out SOL right now so plenty of dumping. But generally bullish signs in the chart.

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Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1sls2q5/bitcoin_funding_rates_have_been_negative_for_46/ This is the kind of data point that should stop you mid-scroll. Derivatives funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures have now been negative for 46 straight days. For the non-derivatives crowd: negative funding means short sellers are paying longs to keep their positions open. It's a direct measure of how many people are betting against the price continuing. When funding stays negative for this long, it means persistent, structural bearish positioning. Not a temporary dip in sentiment, but a sustained conviction among leveraged traders that the price is going lower. The last time funding was negative for this long? November-December 2022. Immediately after the FTX collapse. Which, if you remember, turned out to be the cycle bottom. BTC bottomed around $15,500 and went on to hit $126,000 by October 2025. The pattern is worth understanding. Extended negative funding doesn't just indicate bearish sentiment: it actively creates conditions for violent upward moves. Every short position in the market is a future forced buy. When the trigger comes, (a macro shift, a geopolitical development, a policy signal) all those shorts have to cover simultaneously, which amplifies any rally far beyond what spot demand alone would produce. This is exactly the mechanism behind the $600 million short liquidation event when the ceasefire was announced last week. BTC briefly touched $76,000 yesterday before pulling back to $74,000, unable to hold the breakout. The $75,000–$76,000 zone has dealers in deeply negative gamma, meaning their hedging flows will amplify whatever move comes next in either direction. Above $76K, the next meaningful resistance is $80,000–$80,600. None of this guarantees a recovery. The 46-day FTX comparison is one data point, not a playbook. The macro environment in late 2022 had a different texture: the rate hike cycle was approaching its peak, which gave the market something to look forward to. Right now the Fed is on hold with a 98% probability of no cut at either April or June meetings. That's a real difference. But the positioning data doesn't lie. [The market is loaded with shorts at a level historically associated with exhaustion rather than conviction. Someone has to be wrong.](https://news.bitcoin.com/goldman-sachs-files-for-bitcoin-premium-income-etf-with-covered-call-strategy/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

JeffreyDollarz

FTX 2.0.

BakingBreadBB2

So far it looks worse than FTX...

Suguha_chan

Unlikely. In 2022 it only crashed so far because of the FTX crash. Now in 2026 there is no FTX and btcs market cap is higher and volatility much lower

Suguha_chan

Without another FTX crash, no 40k

Suguha_chan

The big 16k crash was because of the FTX crash. Without that, it would probably have stayed much higher

MAGIGS

I did but then Blockfi was exposed to FTX, and now it’s in someone else’s wallet. Not my keys…

chufruity

And there’s even more shit of reputable billion dollar crypto exchanges establishing years ago just collapsing. FTX literally was a leading cause for the 2023 crypto crash, as it was the 2nd biggest crypto exchange in the US at a time. You hear stuff like that and then you still choose to trust coinbase for holding? Even so, just check the coinbase subreddit, there are countless people documenting how their bitcoin was indefinitely frozen from coinbase for absolutely no reason. COUNTLESS. A reputable exchange isn’t safe whatsoever, and if you think that is the case,you may need to study bitcoin again.

MathematicianKey6222

Behind FTX was no one . Behind Bitcoin ETFs are big banks. Big difference

ozera202

i have not seen crypto sentiment this bad, we are literally in the same trash group as NFTs. FTX / Luna / bear market crash had more engaged

RevenantHaunter13

Have you not paid any attention to history? Mt Gox? Celsius? Most recently, FTX? Everyone who trusts someone else woth their coins ultimately loses those coins. Be careful, be smart. Take self custody. Even starting with small quantities so you can get used to it and grow accustomed to owning your own coins, it will be worth it in the long run. Don't trust someone else. Don't trust me. DYOR.

__Ken_Adams__

FTX was reputable. Besides, your train of thought is only addressing an exchange being fraudulent, but coins can be lost in other ways. It doesn't matter how "reputable" an exchange is. They can be perfectly legitimate & still get hacked. It's happened to several "reputable" exchanges.

Sensitive-Mango3216

Been learning this lesson hard way with exchanges going down over the years. Started moving everything to hardware wallet after that whole FTX mess and sleep way better now knowing my keys are actually mine The amount of people who still keep everything in Coinbase or whatever exchange they first signed up with is crazy to me. Sure its convenient for trading but if you're hodling long term why risk it when hardware wallets are like 50 bucks now. Even set up some automation in my home setup to backup wallet info to different locations just in case Not your keys not your crypto is basically rule number one but somehow people still dont get it until something bad happens

Defiant_Ice_4860

Couple things: 1. the power law floor is one of the most robust findings in bitcoin statistics. It held during all the craziness during celsius, FTX, mount Gox and all the others. This is the margin where real adoption lives: more buyers than sellers. 2. Quantum is a potential hazard to old wallet types, not to the network, Satoshi's coins are the canary in the coal mine. Update old wallet types to newer ones and move on. 3. Adoption Saturation is an interesting moment: this is when the world is on a bitcoin standard and fiat denomination is irrelevant.

Competitive_Swan_755

LWFI is the new FTX.

cooltone

I'm with you, both in your belief of the power-law and in your skepticism - the best way to be. Here's a few things I discovered on my journey: - power-laws existed before bitcoin was invented. They have phenomenom that apply to all power-laws. - There are many examples of power-laws behaviour. - I believe there is only one power-law trajectory that applies to bitcoin - the Bitcoin Power-Law Trajectory (BPLT). - market environments, speculation and events may push up the price from its the BPLT, but eventually the price will relax back to the the BPLT. - the price above and below the BPLT is not symmetrical. It is easier to push the price above the BPLT, but much harder to push the price lower - see FTX impact. According to Santostasi and Perrenod the underlying mechanisms are 1) pervasion according to the rules of epidemic spreading and 2) valuation according to Metcalf's Law. These items are identifiable and measurable, this is where any change in the power-law can be identified. - The BPLT is ~ P(usd) = 10^-16.78 * t^5.69 P= price in USD t=days from genesis 3/01/2009 to today (see: Santostasi and Perrenod) I send this for everyone to scrutinize and improve/criticise, we are all in this together.

A1JX52rentner

FTX used at least $10 billion in stolen customer funds to prop up Alameda Research. Looks more like luna, but we always know after the crash :D

dino-delicious

Is this more similar to the FTX crash or the LUNA crash?

plebbtc

You are right about Binance and BNB. Is Binance using the BNB token to collateralize loans, like FTX did with FTT?

AdhesivenessCivil581

FTX repeat? The fun thing about crypto is that it's not systemic. Frauds happen, collapses happen, massive theft happens and the rest of us just need a nice big bowl of popcorn to get through it. Thanks bros for the entertainment.

plebbtc

The co-founder overlap between FTT and FTX is very similar. Then also add in they are both crypto related. Oh and also tokens, like FTT, are being used to take real value out of the system. Let's hope that Dolomite is run better than FTX.

Top_Performance_732

this is absolutely nothing like FTX except that they were both crypto related

plebbtc

FTX all over again.

LeanCrafterUK

Remember FTX also took big to fail lol . Don't ever say too big to fail again

Competitive_Swan_755

WLFI is the new FTX

KCConnor

That's a bit too low unless we get another FTX sized collapse. Strategy being forced to sell into the lows, Blackrock being proven to hold no actual BTC for their ETF (though that should actually drive price up rather than down but it's scandalous enough), something like that. I see a trend line from the October high to the January 14th high, descending through to October 2026. By the first week of June we should be in the $58K range. I expect summer flirtation with $60K on and off, then an August/September scare to $44K.

Discokruse

This is FTX token's downfall all over again. SBF tried to use FTT as collateral for loans and the brand counters at LedgerX called them out. The cards came crashing down within 90 days.

unknowngloomth

I'm not recommending any kind of investment. You absolute 🤡. Yeah, I'm aware of FTX collapse. So what? That's the risk I'm willing to stomach it. Who said I don't trust the project? I trust HYPE. The team literally didn't sell a single coin. It's all on-chain. Even Arthur Hayes who held and had dumped HYPE watched the team literally not selling their coins. He bought back and became bullish. HYPE tokenomics is deflationary. They use the trading fees to buybacks and burn. Everything happens in real time which you can check by yourself checking on-chain data. Am I saying that hype will be the next BTC? No, fuck that. Am I saying that HYPE is a sure thing? No, fuck that. In crypto everything is uncertain. But yeah, I believe that HYPE has the potential to dwarf SOL and compete with BNB, XRP and ETH. Am I recommending you to buy HYPE? No, screw you. You don't have the balls to go all in on ETH the wager you believe and that's why you're posting here wondering to strangers. Nobody knows shit about fuck in this space 🤡

pythonhulk89

Not a fan of two exchange founders fighting. Last time this happened was FTX times... And that sucked for everyone

AdPrevious5886

Well, nobody looked like wanting reassurance in any of these opinions, unlike you. ETH foundation sold like it did many other times, and they explained it every other single time, they sold to have liquidity and keep improving the ecosystem, not having to rely in outter investments, which looks pretty intelligent to me. They working on the project with their own money, not with other peoples money, but also for other peoples money. If you think a crypto asset is just reliable for having a Dex, wait until you learn more about Mt. Gox and FTX. Its worth it for you because you see a huge oportunity to get rich, not because you trust in the project. I really hope it works out good for you. If you're trying to get people convinced, you should change your speech. Also, saying to other people that you would invest better in HYPE than ETH and then saying you dont recommend any kind of investment, looks like pure hypocresy to me. And again, you are you, and me are me, and i dont mind about the risk at all if i know where and how im putting my money on, because if i wanted low risk, i would let inflation slowly eat my money in the bank like ive been doing last 5 years. But im definitely getting my money eaten by inflation than investing it on HYPE, thats for sure. But yeah im the one 🤡

Infinite_Airline7705

FTX had a better UX than any hardware wallet. The people who stayed because it was easier lost everything overnight.

DemandNew8116

conditions are wildly different. this bear market is pretty organic trading, whereas 2022 bear market was a speculative and paper bitcoin implosion with FTX liquidation being the final nail in the coffin dragging bitcoin to 16k briefly.

ReplacementFormer861

Exactly right and this is the most underrated part of the current cycle. The 2022 bear market had a body count. Terra, Celsius, Voyager, FTX, BlockFi all gone within months of each other. The contagion was structural. This drawdown has no equivalent. No major exchange has failed. No stablecoin has depegged catastrophically. No celebrity CEO is in handcuffs. The bear case now is purely macro. Iran, oil, rates. Those are external headwinds not internal rot. When the macro clears the infrastructure is still intact. That is a completely different recovery setup than 2022 where you had to rebuild trust from scratch. The one risk worth watching is whether the miner AI pivot creates structural pressure on hash rate. If the companies securing the network keep selling BTC to fund data centers that is internal damage accumulating quietly.

hasin76698

never heard of them tbh. probably another FTX waiting to happen. be careful op, don't leave your stack on there.

Not_a_Ghost_0

8k on FTX? rookie numbers man. i had 2.5 eth stuck in celsius and another $5k in blockfi. 2022 aged me a solid decade tbh.

GrouchyAppointment85

8k on FTX? rookie numbers man. i had 2.5 eth stuck in celsius and another $5k in blockfi. 2022 aged me a solid decade tbh.

Asleep-Character-567

8k on FTX? rookie numbers man. i had 2.5 eth stuck in celsius and another $5k in blockfi. 2022 aged me a solid decade tbh.

Low_Carpet9764

I agree with 54k being possible and good target, especially if war continues which it looks like it will; I am DCAing regardless with lump sums on side for those figures. Also while FTX was “contained” well it ravaged sentiment at all levels which is part of why the bear went all the way to 300 WMA which was my point. Dollar supremacy is in question with other countries trading with Yuan/gold conversions but I wouldn’t say it’s that much more uncertain than 2022 outside of the private credit situation.. WW3 talk was everywhere in 2022. Private credit imploding is very plausible though but all negative short term events have the same end result: massive stimulus in which BTC performs well.. I’ve also theorized in this upcoming stock crash bitcoin completely detaches from software correlation and absorbs some of the stock market (alongside other commodities). In your view what are odds that happens? Since you clearly follow BTC you are aware it is not a software stock and really shouldn’t correlate with it but does anyway. I’m not sure if this upcoming cycle will be when it happens but it WILL happen eventually once the masses figure out what it is and faith in dollar/traditional equities collapses.. factor in BTC front running stock crash and this idea becomes even more likely due to asymmetric returns.

Saffuran

1) My numbers are just literal factual breakdowns of prior cycles -- periods of weakness can be expressed in periods of time as well as in currency denominations, so I prefer to show both. 2) My main average bottom number is around $54,000 but I am more than open to BTC/Crypto going lower because it can, and because the macroeconomic picture outside of crypto is very bad right now. Things are - in general - much more uncertain and therefore higher risk right now than was the case during the late-2022/early-2023 bottom when the broader market was through the worst of COVID and more elements of the global economy were more stable. 3) As an extension of macroeconomics looking bad right now (BRENT oil spot price at $140 and rising, we likely see a price that is 20-25% higher before it peaks and high oil prices effect on the markets are slightly delayed and tend to drag on for months even after some normalization) -- there is a lot of evidence that Private Credit entities (Blue Owl, Apollo, Blackstone, Ares e.t.c.) are greatly overextended and any pullback in the credit markets are felt to a greater extend further down the risk curve. The combined effect of high oil and credit risk has greater potential to pull markets an extra leg down than FTX [which was fairly contained] was able to.

leonm0161

Not your keys, not your coins. If your crypto is not on a wallet, where you are the only one who is aware of the seed phrase, you are trusting the entity who also has access to the seed phrase. In the case of FTX (go watch a documentary on YouTube about the FTX Crash), this trust was betrayed. Buy a cold wallet

Romanizer

Very good work. Just keep one thing in mind: when the Bitcoin power law was first published by Giovanni Santostasi (I think he also is active here on Reddit), there only was the linear regression line which Bitcoin fluctuates around. The fair price, bottom and top line are multiplicators of this line. They have been changed at least once. One time that I can remember is the FTX collapse leading to the 2022 bottom. The growth presented here is valid as long as the power law holds (and it still does since beginning), but I wouldn't count on any lows and highs as being a hard limit. In positive news, the current low point ($56k) may be a bit pessimistic because it was directly influenced by 2 major systemic failures (Celsius and FTX), where we haven't seen anything comparable this time around. It all points to the bottom being in and that we are in the perfect time frame for accumulation.

airfix13

I’ve found myself in the same situation, honestly this shit and FTX it’s enough to make me give up. I’ve resigned myself to the fact I’m not going to get my money. Did you have any joy?

KiNg-MaK3R

I thought it was stupid in 2017 I saw it hit $15k or whatever and really learned about it. I didn’t buy several bitcoin until I got a huge bonus at work and it happened to happen around the FTX implosion. Bought in the $15k range and thought I was an idiot for a while. Turned out Ok.

ElRiesgoSiempre_Vive

The customers of Mt Gox, FTX, Celsius and Quadriga are not "most people." I was a customer of Gox. It was a very, very small percentage of people overall.

Subject-Chest-8343

I think that guy is wrong. 2022 is the only one time it went below the previous ATH at all. Not only this, but if you look closer, it only went below at the time of the FTX collapse, which was coincidentally at the end of a very bad year for most markets. And, on top of that, BTC went down to 16k, but in the previous cycle, it only stayed above 16k for a couple days. So yeah, I would be weary of using the word "historically" when you only have one, very questionable data point.

Fickle_Actuator_5145

Sure thing! Self-custody just means YOU hold your own Bitcoin instead of leaving it on an exchange like Coinbase or Kraken. Think of it like this: when your BTC is on an exchange, it's like keeping your money in someone else's safe. They give you an IOU. If they go bankrupt (like FTX did), your money might disappear. Self-custody means you move your BTC to a wallet where only YOU have the private keys (basically a long secret password that proves the Bitcoin is yours). Two main types: 1. Software wallet (free, on your phone) - apps like BlueWallet or Sparrow. Good for smaller amounts. Think of it like a wallet in your pocket. 2. Hardware wallet ($60-150) - physical devices like Trezor or Coldcard. Your keys are stored on the device and never touch the internet. Think of it like a personal safe. Best for larger amounts. The process: buy BTC on an exchange, then send it to your own wallet address. The exchange no longer has it. You do. The tradeoff: you're now responsible for keeping your private keys (or "seed phrase" - 12-24 words) safe. Lose those words, lose your Bitcoin forever. No customer service to call. But nobody can freeze your account or steal your funds either. For a beginner I'd say: start with a software wallet like BlueWallet to learn how it works with a small amount. Once you're comfortable (and your stack grows), upgrade to a hardware wallet.

Fickle_Actuator_5145

Honest answer that isn't just "HODL" or "buy the dip": Before you touch Bitcoin or any investment, do these first: 1. Pay off any high-interest debt (credit cards, personal loans above 8%). No investment consistently beats 20%+ interest rates on credit card debt. 2. Build 3-6 months of expenses in a high-yield savings account or stablecoins earning yield. This is your "sleep at night" money. 3. Only invest what's left. If you have no debt and already have an emergency fund, great, all 25k can go to investments. Now for the actual investing part with whatever's left: Don't put it all in at once. BTC is sitting below 67k right now after a meaningful pullback. Nobody knows if this is the bottom or if we go lower. Dollar-cost average over 3-6 months. Put in a set amount every week or every two weeks. Split between Bitcoin and a broad index fund (S&P 500 ETF like VOO). Bitcoin is high conviction for a lot of people here, and I get it, but diversification isn't a dirty word. Something like 60-70% BTC, 30-40% index funds gives you crypto upside with less volatility. Self-custody at least some of your BTC. Hardware wallet (Coldcard, Trezor, etc). Not your keys, not your coins isn't just a meme after what happened with FTX. Most importantly: have a plan and write it down. What's your time horizon? Are you holding for 5+ years? Are you going to panic sell at the first 30% drop? Be honest with yourself before the emotions kick in.

cooltone

I agree. I can only speak about the FTX melt down. The price was at the bottom for 5 months before the price fell another 25%, but it didn't last that long. There was a feeding frenzy and the price recovered in ~ 8 weeks. We have been at $67.5k ± 2.5k for two months, so it could be another 3 months if anything were to happen, but it would take an FTX level event - if it does they can bunk up with SBF.

user_name_checks_out

Tell that to the customers of Mt Gox, and FTX, and Celsius, and Quadriga, etc. etc. etc. The "benefit of the asset class" is that it is trustless.

Green-Experience420

ya they just want to scam the world with stable coins like FTX. We just want bitcoin to be a recognized commodity

HeyYes7776

Just pay the god damn bribe already like the other Crypto Criminals. I’m so tired of these assholes. Fucking Blockfills just did an FTX… this was weeks back…. Why - because these idiots see crime pays and don’t care about the bag left for the rest of us.

TokenPulsar

958 out of 959 periods profitable is actually insane when you say it out loud. the one losing window was buying the literal top of 2017 and selling during FTX. like you had to be maximally unlucky twice in a row to lose.

Aggravating_Fold1154

Nah it's not all deregulation, he actually added more regulation like requiring stablecoins to be pegged to the dollar. He just did what he did to appeal to the right crowds and get elected. You say he enabled people to openly scam and defraud people but that shit has been happening way before Trump got elected (FTX, Terra Luna, Celcius, etc...). The re-regulations are a net positive in this shit show imo

InvestAISavvy

Different setup than 2022 in a few important ways. In 2022, the crash was driven by internal crypto contagion — Luna, 3AC, Celsius, then FTX. Each domino made the next one fall, and trust in the entire ecosystem collapsed. Stocks recovered first because crypto had its own structural problems to work through beyond just macro. This time the pressure is mostly external — Iran, oil above $100, stagflation fears, the $14B options expiry on Deribit yesterday. Crypto doesn't have a contagion event happening. Fear & Greed just hit 12, which is the lowest reading since October 2023, but the social data tells a different story. I track engagement volume across platforms and BTC social attention is actually *climbing* while price drops. That kind of divergence — more eyeballs, rising panic, falling price — has historically shown up near capitulation bottoms, not the start of extended drawdowns. The other piece worth watching: institutional infrastructure is still being built during this fear cycle. Morgan Stanley is prepping a Bitcoin ETF at 0.14% fees, undercutting BlackRock. ETH ETFs have had six straight days of outflows, but that's positioning, not abandonment. Institutions don't build low-fee products for assets they think are going to zero. The stock market has its own headwinds right now — oil is squeezing margins, the Dow just entered correction territory, and the VIX is above 30. If the Iran situation drags out, stocks could stay pressured longer than crypto because corporate earnings take a direct hit from energy costs. Bitcoin doesn't have an earnings report to miss. No crystal ball, but the setup feels more like BTC leads the recovery this time rather than lags it.

ThreeTonChonker

Wars, market manipulation, Jane Street, etc. None of it BTC’s fault. None of the problems are even crypto related like past bear markets (FTX for example). Feels like a planned accumulation phase by market makers who are probably currently dumping their positions in gold. Here’s what makes sense to me: if I was a market maker and see BTC as the ultimate long term asset, I want to shake loose anyone on the fence before the price makes fence sitters rich enough to have an opinion. Wouldn’t be surprised if a switch is flipped with the SAVE act, new fed chair, Iran war ends when the US pulls out and Trump declares victory, maybe these FUD bots disappear off social media, and a few major players add BTC to their payment options. The infrastructure has slowly been added to platforms like PayPal with crypto on and off ramps to make this the quickest bear rugpull of all time. Unfortunately this is out of the hands of retail but retail has proven to be the most cowardly holders so it’s no surprise.

Fuzzyfoot12345

I felt this way when bitcoin was 15k during the FTX SBF fiasco. I'm 50-50 on bitcoin moving forward, seems to double every 5 years now, will be really telling on the longterm when the next bull run hits.