FTX

soks86

It never was Bitcoin itself though. Mt. Gox, FTX, frozen withdrawals, that's all external to Bitcoin itself.

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Year_of_the_Dragon

Keep in mind how the US government sees Bitcoin as well…. They view it as property… on their balance sheets and for tax purposes.. the best part for them…. They can accumulate just by seizing it, for now . Though there is speculation they are actively buying it as well with the new reserves act. To think the two largest governments are naive and just a holding point for bitcoin is a step I find comical. They know exactly what they are doing. They are trying to hedge it and control it to the best of their abilities. Both governments can single handily stop any bull run at any time. If they needed to. And they create false scarcity by holding. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with any of it. I still think on paper Bitcoin is as perfect as it can be. It still creates large pockets in between for growth and large dips for buying opportunities that will always be there. But Bitcoin isn’t going to 0. No chance. I’m not sure there can be a bigger scandal than FTX. And look at the bottom then. So the new bottom has to be higher than that or close to double that. Which there would be so many call sheets to buy it would go on a bull run. I’m at the point I believe misinformation and scandals get released on purpose to create buying opportunities for the upper echelons now. Bitcoin reacts eerily similar to the creation of the stock market. And we all know how that reacted in the 1930’s. Just like Bitcoin. And every drop thereafter was not as bad , but still painful. Yet the stock market still goes and in theory perfect on paper in a mechanical way. Yet bad players always trying to take advantage of it.

HomelessInASuit

For what he did to FTX? You’re just going to ignore the fact that he was under international securities fraud for years until he bribed Trump? CZ isn’t the guy you seem to think he is. Binance is just another exchange and at the end of the day I don’t know how many times we need to tell you. “Not your keys, not your coins.”

Romanizer

Yes, the FTX collapse pushed the lower boundary down a bit. The upper, lower bound and fair price are just multiples of the middle band, IIRC. I think it follow the methodology of bitcoinfairprice.com.

Ornery-Aerie-940

If you're looking for volume and performance but want to avoid the counterparty risk of another FTX, check out Hyperliquid. It's matching CEX speeds now but fully self-custodial. A lot of the big on-chain volume is migrating there. https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/BITWHISPER

Formal_Meaning8389

Fair. Think of it like this: Bitcoin’s price dumped, but none of the machinery around it failed. No Mt. Gox, no FTX, no frozen withdrawals. Blocks kept coming, ETFs cleared, custody worked. The weakness wasn’t Bitcoin itself — it was leverage and liquidity *around* it. When people had to sell, bids vanished faster than systems broke. That’s different from past crashes, where prices fell *because* infrastructure failed.

Hungry_Mission_3933

MSTR is nothing like FTX. MSTR holds verifiable BTC on the block chain and it is held in self-custody by major institutions. FTX held paper BTC "IOU's", and used customer funds as leverage. FTX collapsed because their assets didn't exist. MSTR price fluctuates because BTC is a volatile asset with a history of major swings to both the upside and downside.

ChuckNorrisFacePunch

Coinbase has 90x the users of FTX when it folded.

Der_Saian

Celsius, FTX, Gemini,

Guilty-Log6739

Dude, FTX was 4 years ago. That’s not ancient history. Stop with this bullshit. You are not advocating for people’s best interest.

GreenStretch

The wallets and exchanges earlier people started with are now called trash in all the crypto spaces. Some really were, like Mt. Gox or FTX. Don't use Gemini! Use Strike! Use River! Are the new ones better or have their flaws just not been exposed yet? Normies are going to do what Brian Harrington and British HODL advise, whether they watch youtubers like that and buy the bitcoin through Blackrock or Fidelity.

6thcoin

FTX only held .1% of the btc that was deposited. NOT YOUR KEYS NOT YOUR CHEESE.

JeremyLinForever

Okay Brian Armstrong. Get out of here with your non self-sovereign crap. Nobody wants to put money into a spot Bitcoin ETF that has an expense ratio, and OP forgot about FTX and exchange collapses because he probably joined in 2025 and doesn’t know anything.

Knight925

Welll .... no! It is really not that hard to set up a hardware wallet and 24 words. Are some people too incompetent to do this? Yes. But setting up a ledger can literally be done in 5-10 Minutes. There have been many Exchanges that lost customer money. FTX was one of the biggest and well known exchanges .... and I had an account there .... and it still failed.... I don't really use test transactions. You can check all letters before you send. Not that complicated. The only need for test transactions is exchanges, because they force you to do Satoshi Tests and you never know, if they will really ratify your incoming transaction. When sending your Bitcoin to a private adress it is way easier. You send it and after 6 blocks it's just there and can be used again. No GUI, no regulation, no oversight ... it's just there Good look with having an exchange still be there in 20 years. I would bet against it with that time frame I think. There is none of the exchanges left that were relevant 10 years ago. I agree with Grandmas who cannot use computers though. At some point the risk of user error overshadows the risk of exchanges. But that is certainly not the case for middle aged ppl used to computers. There is no anxiety with hardware wallets. Just the opposite. You could literally burrow your seed into the ground for 15 years and all your assets will still be there

Puzzleheaded-Nose329

Bringing up Mt. Gox and FTX in 2026 is like saying you’ll never fly a plane because of the Wright brothers' crashes. Those failures are EXACTLY why top-tier exchanges today are safer. They paved the way for Proof of Reserves, multi-billion dollar insurance funds (like SAFU or Bybit’s Protection Fund), and strict regulation that didn’t exist back then. You say 'Not your keys, not your coins' like it’s a magic spell. But tell me: how many people lost everything because they misplaced a piece of paper or got phished on a 'secure' cold wallet? The stats show that **user error** is a much bigger threat to retail than modern exchange security. And about my profile—yeah, I look for the best deals and tools. That’s called being a smart trader, not a 'shill.' I’d rather have 24/7 security and a $1,000 bonus than feel morally superior while my 0.1 BTC sits on a plastic stick doing nothing. Keep your keys if you want to be your own bank manager, IT department, and security guard. I’ll stick to the pros and focus on actual gains.

ShinAlastor

It looks like you are shilling a notorious exchange judging by your profile. Not your keys, not your coins. Explain your nonsense to the people who lost their funds using Mt Gox, Celsius or FTX.

kitbiggz

We are in a bear market year for Bitcoin. Don't be fooled. Go back and study the Nov 2021 top last cycle. We didn't bottom til December 2022. The FTX crash probably made the bear market longer. No that everything is more organized and No more wildcard like Sam Bankman fried. This bear market could over pretty fast. Maybe summertime

justignoremeplsthx

Uh- 1 million users lost the ability to withdraw their funds from the FTX collapse. 24,000 folks lost their bitcoin in the Mt. Gox hack. QuadrigaCX platform- $190 million became inaccessible. Celsius was 1.7 million users and 4-5 Billion dollars. Voyager- 3.5 million users (I was one of them) with some alt coins not in cold storage. BlockFi, hundreds of thousands of users in 2022. Sorry, but these just don't compare to users losing their seed words. Not your keys, not your coins.

Stray14

MSTR will cause the market wash out / cascade event that will signal the end of the bear market. MSTR is the FTX of this run.

CryptigoVespucci

yeah everyone seems to be vaguely saying, "someone blew up," but so far there's no Mt. Gox, FTX style body floating anywhere that anyone can see. Maybe some funds in Hong Kong, but nothing major it appears.

Swanky_Gear_Snob

Institutional crypto has turned into a machine that extracts value from retail. Spot ETFs like BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC, CME futures, options, perpetual swaps and structured products let funds profit from volatility, crashes and liquidations through shorts, leverage and basis trades. Price is driven by derivatives desks and macro flows, not real usage. A small group of custodians and institutions hold huge portions of supply, while paper Bitcoin and rehypothecation dilute the scarcity narrative. We have already seen how this ends for retail with FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, Terra and countless liquidation cascades. People lose everything while funds collect fees and trading profits either way. The tech side is not immune either. AI is accelerating exploit discovery and protocol attacks. Quantum computing is a real long term risk to current cryptography and signatures. If large scale quantum becomes practical, much of today’s blockchain security model is compromised. The reality is decentralization is shrinking, financialization is total, and the security assumptions are not permanent. Crypto is increasingly just another Wall Street asset class where retail takes the risk and institutions extract the value.

laxpanther

The bear market was the cause of FTX collapse. They probably could have kept up with all that illegal shit (for a while anyway) if the price didn't fall. Basically the same thing that did Madoff in.

cooltone

Bitcoin is complicated. There are multiple influences on the price. The comments on this sub are like the proverb of the Blind Men and the Elephant, each provides sage advice based their perspective, some just want to crash the price for gain and others for resentment. Bitcoin is a network that has value. Metcalf's law historically has been used to value networks, similarly Power-Laws are used to describe network growth (See Geoffrey West's Ted talk that precedes the bitcoin network.) From my blind man perspective, once someone does the research and gain confidence they rarely stop being a bitcoin convert. Which means the adoption of bitcoin will grow slowly, then rapidly - this underlying behaviour has been tracked and it is following a Power-Law. All the other influences sit on top of this Power-Law, they come and go, and from time to time the price relaxes back to the Power-Law - which is what is happening now. The Power-Law is why DCA works over the long term. Even if you buy at a point above the Power-Law price, eventually the Power-Law price will catch up and take you higher. Of course it is best if you can buy close to the Power-Law price. The Halving is a well known influence. The block reward halves roughly every four years, which reduces supply. The impact is cumulative and is felt ~530 days after the halving producing a price peak, after this the price relaxes back to the Power-Law. How high the peak is and how fast the relax is depends on the prevailing conditions which are very difficult to predict. This time around I believe the peak was low as speculator looked to other assets. The low peak meant there was no sustain in the peak so the relaxation was fast. Using the Power-Law it my estimate for the absolute lowest price is $52k - and it might take an FTX event to do this. Without an extreme event a $60 low would be a more likely scenario.

user_name_checks_out

FTX absorbed millions of dollars that would otherwise have gone into bitcoin.

Citizen_Kano

FTX didn't happen until November 2022, we were already well into a bear market before that

Shaykh_Hadi

Markets go in cycles. There’s never a straight up forever for an asset. Bitcoin will recover and go to all time highs. Bitcoin would have crashed in 2021 even without FTX. It would have been different, maybe less severe and the bull market might have lasted longer but it still would have happened.

NOneHOne

Exactly. Nobody stops DCA'ing just because the price is dropping. That would kind of defeat the purpose. And it's only gambling if you can't afford to lose it and/or you don't believe in it. Most of are certain that the cycle will continue. Really glad that I kept buying during and through the whole FTX meltdown. Gotta love panic selling though. Buy high, sell low!

loseineverything

No. FTX was shady. They had been loaning customer deposits to Alameda Research. Alameda lost a shitload when crypto crashed in 2022. FTX didn’t have enough funds to honor customers withdraws. Sam Bankman had been lobbying against Binance and when the crash happened. The CEO definitely played a role but if FTX wasn’t lending customer deposits it would’ve been fine.

maltokyo

I am a Nigerian Prince, and I specialize in investing in crypto exchange startups! Finally, a project with a solid whitepaper and a clear roadmap. "I’m collecting Bitcoin" is honestly the most transparent business model I’ve seen since FTX. It’s refreshing to see someone skip the technical jargon and get straight to the "give me money" phase of the rug pull. Tell you what, I actually have $45 million in unclaimed inheritance currently stuck in a cold wallet because I lost my seed phrase in a tragic boating accident. If you can send me just 0.25 BTC to cover the "blockchain transaction verification fee," I will personally fund your entire exchange. We can call it **RoyalRugSwap**. I’ll even let you be the CEO while I handle the liquidity management from my palace in Lagos. Just DM me your private keys and your mother’s maiden name so I can start the wire transfer. To the moon, brother!

SouthJazz1010

It's a lie “FTX, FTX US, and Alameda Research together still held $3.4 billion in crypto assets.” ($5 billion in assets in total.) FTX were crooks, just like Binance. But let's put my point in plain English: FTX was a smaller exchange with fewer reserves and fewer creditors, while Binance is a bigger exchange with larger reserves and more creditors. So having larger reserves doesn't necessarily help when enough creditors come knocking. https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/will-ftx-dump-its-crypto-holdings https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/ftx-has-recovered-5-billion-worth-of-liquid-assets-lawyers-say-bankman-fried-crypto.html

Keyosu

Did you say this during FTX and them stay quiet as it went to 100k? I'm curious.

moonkingdome

Yep.. Cycle 1 Low: January 14, 2015 Bitcoin bottomed at approximately $152 - $200. This occurred roughly 410 days after the November 2013 peak and about 542 days before the July 2016 halving. Cycle 2 Low: December 15, 2018 The price hit a cycle low of approximately $3,122. This was 363 days after the December 2017 all-time high and occurred roughly 512 days before the May 2020 halving. Cycle 3 Low: November 21, 2022 Following the collapse of the FTX exchange, Bitcoin fell to a low of approximately $15,476. This bottom occurred 376 days after the November 2021 peak and 515 days before the April 2024 halving. Cycle 4 (Current): ???? 650+ days already in..

SouthJazz1010

FTX’s creditor list is likely an order of magnitude smaller than Binance’s. Do you know how proportions work.

SouthJazz1010

I bet you would have said the same thing about FTX in 2021. >B̶i̶n̶a̶n̶c̶e̶ FTX has cold wallets fat enough they can easily slowly sell for years without going insolvent. Its like saying the qatar and saudi oil cartel will go insolvent. Its a comedy fabricated by stupid zoomers with total lack of economic knowledge.

Presidente83

Interesting. Is it a choice mainly related to self-custody or also to flexibility compared to more integrated solutions? I ask because I see that many, after FTX, prefer to accept more complexity rather than remain on one platform.

doodaddy64

seems like Binance had a big part in the failure of FTX did it not? turned them in after FTX begged for a loan or something?

BeefonWeck00

listen, im not saying that I disagree. I don't care about XRP at all besides the fact im well positioned to make money. But there were people like you telling me similar things when I was buying Solana during the FTX fiasco left and right when the coin was worth 13 dollars. I genuinely mean this with no offense, but i don't take yours or anyone elses opinions seriously when it comes to crypto on reddit. If anything, comments like these have only been bullish for me.

Presidente83

Fair point. That’s exactly why I’m trying to understand when people are willing to accept platform risk for convenience, and when they’re not. FTX changed that threshold for a lot of users

binglelemon

FTX around & Find Out

Bowlingkopp

I feel you. I was in DefiChain and made about 100k through it, with liquidity mining. Had about 0.75 BTC and the rest mostly in DFI (DefiChain). Then the inflation started to kick in, the FTX breakdown and I don't remember what else, but DFI went from 4.5$ to 0.35$. So my crypto portfolio went down from 130k to 17k, I think. That was a hard time. The could have should have game doesn't help you. My stocks went from 60k to \~30k. Meanwhile I'm at 70k with stocks and crypto, but the latter I sold last autumn. Try to learn from your mistakes and make it better. What I learned is, don't fall in love with an investment and diversify. Base your investment decisions on facts. And if these facts change your decision has to change. If that means sell, then sell. And if you're still in crypto, sell the rest. This is not the end of the bear market. Microstrategy and Saylor are going down and BTC with them. When they are gone, BTC may be able to get up again.

cooltone

Just ignore the bots. They will make an unjustified statement and go silent when you ask for a rational explanation. I doubt the price will go below $53k as well. And to justify that it's to do with the power-law. There is a core power-law trend line that the price has never gone below. Of course it's not impossible, but if it did what would be the justification? The last time the core power-law was touched was after FTX imploded and trashed the price - that was $17k/Jan 2023. Since then the power-law growth is 45%/year. Then 17k x (1.45^3) = $52k. So $53k isn't pulled out of OP's arse.

hoppeeness

People probably said the same about FTX and they were less sketchy than Binance has been.

hoppeeness

That all happened like almost a week ago. What causes a one day drop so dramatic? Most even dollar drop for btc and most % since FTX. I am not saying we wouldn’t have gotten to 60k either way…but in one day? Could be banks shorting or selling to put pressure on crypto for the clarity act.

hoppeeness

I mean it is the biggest % drop since FTX and the biggest dollar drop ever for BTC in a day…sooo it’s not “normal”.

hoppeeness

I guess my point is Binance isn’t exactly trustworthy and was looking for explanations for such a steep drop…like the FTX one.

Blueberry_Dependent

It's exact representation of a person who already survived FTX, Covid crashes. This is just another dump, nothing to panic

RVALover4Life

FTX and COVID yes...less so with Ukraine to me....but the fact we're in such a situation now without an existential crisis over our heads....it's instead pure policy with no end in sight....that's the bigger worry. There's nobody to turn the ship around or hold things up. There's no stimulus coming like with COVID either to artificially hold the economy up.

CryptoDeepDive

I withdrew hundreds of thousands from both Voyager and FTX in 2022. They crashed a few months later. Doesn't mean shit.

Blade_Runner_69

I'm not even a fan of Binance or BNB, but even I know it's all dumb FUD and idiots trying to cause panic. There are powerful people in America that hate CZ with a vengeance, because of what he did to their darling Sam Bankman the SEC insider and FTX. So expect lies in the media.

Cautious-Lecture-858

Binance death would be one of the best things that could happen in the industry. Short term pain in exchange for more legitimacy, and governance. Binance is a cancer. Just like FTX was.

dontcare4512789

I remember Binance processing around $14–15 billion in customer withdrawals after the FTX collapse. I know because I was monitoring it at the time.

dontcare4512789

I remember Binance processing around $14–15 billion in customer withdrawals after the FTX collapse. I know because I was monitoring it at the time.

Oheson

Exactly. And there is always some narrative the idiotic "news" comes up with to try to explain it. Last cycle it was FTX, Tether, (fill in the blank".

Ok-Independence210

So in your mind, people are worrying cause of FUD? No exchanges have gone under? The crypto game is full of fraud and scams. FTX went under, so please don't act like there's nothing to see..

qwertylopez

Thanks for this man. I hadn’t experienced the Covid and FTX falls, so appreciate the perspective here.

A_friendly_goosey

Worst day for Bitcoin since FTX according to CMC - Its been a tough time, I had to sell as my stack was edging close to my required bag for an upcoming move and dam did it suck. I know we will be back, but when... I've got buys at 40 and 45k but I cant imagine it getting there.

iterativ

There was the -40% in 2020 then, then with lockdowns. Also, all the current major exchanges went through much worse. There is no bank that can survive withdrawals for that kind. These exchanges did and doing fine. FTX was established in 2019, so not proved yet at the time.

knowmansland

Where are the facts? FTX crashed after the fact. In addition to LUNA. Hold steady lads. The whole market is under manipulation. Crooks on every algo taking your assumption as cash. Remember that SBF, Do Kwon, and CZ were on signal chats. In fact I think it was Sam who wanted to tank LUNA. It’s a big club and you ain’t in it.

Mother_Network9453

FTX failed because the balance sheet was already broken. Noise and pauses aren’t the same as a bank run unless exits stop permanently. For founders, the lesson is clear: markets now stress test platforms in real time. Build for transparency, self custody, and failure scenarios not just uptime in bull markets.

DankShibe

Covid dip and FTX crash dip were worse

iterativ

There were multiple such run, all current exchanges basically, after FTX, other times. There is no bank in the world that can withstand such withdrawals. Exchanges as you see, went through several "bear markets" and still there. FTX was not the case, it went not a single bad "bear" before. It established in 1019 or so.

Glittering_Pick_9738

Yesterday I was buying BTC on its way down. Today I threw some change in BCH because it's the black horse of this cycle and sort of uncorrupted bitcoin. But also in SOL (more or less evenly) because it's one of the most hated coins now and sooner or later people will be back in casino. And I still regret not buying it for $10 during FTX collapse. It's not at $10 today but still a multi-year low. Unless crypto literally dies this time, it should be good purchase.

hoppeeness

You don’t know that currently there is no bank run. Bank runs don’t = bank (Binance) fails…especially if they are solvent. But it doesn’t mean people aren’t taking money out because they are worried. Agree everyone else survived. Not sure how that applies here. FTX didn’t survive. That can never happen again?

Rayl24

There's no bank run on binance. It was an industry wide withdrawal after FTX collapsed, all other exchanges survived it proving their liquidity

hoppeeness

Ok…and then there was a bank run on Binance. Are you saying Binance would handle to the same way? CEO isn’t exactly trustworthy and still hasn’t answered for 10/10. I am just asking…..this is the largest single day drop by % since FTX

hoppeeness

How did FTX go insolvent then?

DankShibe

That level of uncertainty was seen again during the FTX collapse and Ukraine war short after and also on Covid and the following supply chain crisis.

repezdem

So you think FTX or SHIB bagholders have no losses cause they never sold their bag? This is why you shouldnt invest lmao

Odd_Fun5012

honestly feels like both things happening at same time 💀 the withdrawal pause got everyone spooked even if it was just "technical issues" and then general market being trash this week made it worse people definitely remember what happened with FTX so any exchange having problems = instant panic mode, can't really blame them for pulling funds out just to be safe 😂

GabeSter

If Binance is health any opinions on who you think is hemorrhaging. Number 1 and Number 2 worst percent single day pull backs in the last five years were FTX and Celsius collapsing. This is third worst barely behind FTx era single day losses.

Acceptable_Deal_4662

bro even back when it was first made it was immediately used for the online black market, FTX, inflating company profits on earnings calls. its been used for all the wrong reasons since its inception.

AbjectFee5982

That's because when shit hit the fan with silvergate FTX, etc etc they were cooking the books and sending it back and forth between coinbase kraken BNB etc etc.

GabeSter

I remember in 2022 when after FTX collapsed that I posted a warning that Binance did not have adequate reserves for the BNB Chain custodied tokens. Which was especially suspicious since they pulled it from the 1 to 1 BNB Chain reserve wallets into BNB exchange hot wallets... Right before they had an audit to claim they backed Binance reserves on a 1 to 1 basis. I did think they were going to go down in 2023. Surprised they didn't. But that's unrelated to now.

Adept-Knowledge3710

Trump has been the worst thing to happen to crypto since SBF and FTX

TapThatYak

I have also been through this 3 times, like many others here. The doom and gloom is a scam. Media is overspeculating making people panic and further the crash. Meanwhile the weekly and month RSI is as low as when the FTX event when BTC went down to 17k in the next few months. Generational buying opportunity starts now and if people dont scoop it up fast maybe it will last a few months into the spring, summer would be a stretch.

Eggsplant33

What’s different is how fast it’s dropped within a week. But I see you’ve been around during the FTX-related crash. I remember those days, too. Remember how emotional that was? It was insane. I liked the memes most of all and still have my favorite meme during those days saved. In the end, this is fun. But sometimes it doesn’t feel fun to everyone who hasn’t been in it for 10 years. Remember when you were a teenager with only $1k to your name, knowing college fees will soon need to be paid, bills need to be paid to help your family. And you’ve put your last $100 into Bitcoin, which seemingly instantly turns into $50. Remember how something like that felt? Now imagine a bunch of people on here doing that to the thousands, tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of dollars hoping bitcoins will go up, only to see their money half. How does that feel? I’m not worried myself. But I’ve been in bitcoin long enough to fully understand why people are acting the way they’re doing now, through experience and observing people all this time. I think if you remember what it was like during the ups and downs over the past decade, you’ll get your answer why people are acting the way they are right now.

cooltone

I estimate the absolute bottom is around $52k and I do not believe this will be reached unless there is an FTX like event. From the the FTX low of $17k, it would put the annual growth at ~45%/year. The cycle is playing out. I see it as an impulse response to the halving step function. This time around with a reduced step and liquidity diverted to sp500, gold & silver the $123k ATH didn't reach bubble territory. As a result the price has relaxed back to the core power-law faster than usual. I have to admit I have been surprised how fast the price collapsed, but I estimate this is because the price didn't enter the bubble zone this time around. Once the price stabilises somewhere between now and $52k I expect growth will resume, just a little muted as many will stay away. They will return in a year when they have forgotten - and the influencers will say the banana zone is back on as liquidity has returned. I expect it will take a year to get back to $100k.

Stray14

2nd leg in action, we’re only just getting going. We haven’t seen any form of cascade at all. S&P hasn’t moved and wowww does it look like it’s about to roll over, layoffs, AI bubble, trade uncertainty international tensions interest rates, Mag 7 etc etc. I called 32k, that looks like a given at this point. We could well duck right below that. No jokes if the timing of the S&P downturn coincides with with 3rd downwards leg of BTC we could test the lows of FTX 15k region. Wow that would be epic.

Good_Extension_9642

Remember the FTX debacle when it went all they way down to 15.5k?

R3dFiveStandingBye

It hit $15,400 after FTX collapsed, but yeah those targets are good, I like $42k.

xG8q_P7l9zR0

FTX like event

Der_Saian

Same shit every time. It's not even at its peak yet. Wait until BTC is dead anð over forever starts. Especially if some kind of black swan event happens like FTX or Celsius collapse or Covid. This time it can be MicroStrategy or something unexpected. Been watching since 2017 investing since 2019. Had a bunch of money stolen by Celsius, Voyager and Gemini

Simke11

The worst is yet to come once companies in this space start imploding. Every bear market will have it's Luna/FTX.

GoShogun

Yes, but this seems even faster and more violent than any drawdown previously. And without a crystal clear catalyst (like FTX). I'm curious to see what that might imply for recovery (if ever).

BainTrain55

Something is clearly going on with Binance. A repeat of FTX or something and they are all escaping before us retail find out.

hughlanko

I appreciate the spirit of your post and glad your buddy dodged that bullet. However this kind of advice is only going to exacerbate the situation isn’t it. At some point it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. We don’t want the big exchanges to collapse, we want them to succeed. FTX was a criminally fraudulent enterprise. We shouldn’t tar established, legitimate exchanges with the same brush.

ericargyle

Been here since 2020. Last two weeks felt like 2022 all over. Today felt like the FTX collapsing day.

bccrz_

I agree, I bought at 70, probably buy again now closer to 60. I started early 2020 and heard about drawdowns after big thing like Gox the saw Covid & FTX & whatnot, so I assumed there’s usually a big thing that would force prices down. I guess macro doesn’t look very good so just going through risk off cycle right now.

Titanium_Eye

Hey man, you've been looking at it from 2024, but this is really nothing new. We had crashes much more brutal than this. It's all hyper speculation, not investing. When FTX imploded and the regulators started filling the autocanons, people were fearing it was gonna get shitcanned on the UN level. And then eventually it rose right up again and so everyone and their pets started jumping on again, clearly it's not sustainable. The roller coaster is part of the experience, don't buy in if you can't take the hit.

MountainManic186

The bull spear is a little shorter but ultimately it depends on my free cashflows. I’m generally a buyer at any price but I try harder to save in a bear. I’ve bought the FTX crash at $17k & I’ve also bought at $120k. The only thing I ever regret is not having more free cashflows to buy more!! 

Serenaded

\> It had temporarily paused withdrawals on the same day, which gave strong support to the rumors of insufficient reserves, a dire situation faced by FTX mere days before its bankruptcy. They do things like this on purpose. It's not an accident. They dump the market when things go bearish. They start listing good coins and assets when things go bullish. Even though they're billionaires, they're also trying to 2-3x their wealth every year.

Live_Jazz

This is my base case with maybe 70% ish certainty. Bitcoin often leads stock market corrections which we are starting to see…and then bounces first. I’m looking do Bitcoin to start to level out, stocks continue their slide, and the Bitcoin bounce and lead stocks as the admin pours showers liquidity around for the mid terms. That’s if we don’t get any new skeletons in the closet à la FTX. We shall see.

christianc750

Well I actually sold near the top (experience or luck, whatever...) so now just starting to buy back in, it feels odd because I think it will go down more but I also know it is a good time to buy. What I wlll say is the law of diminishing returns also applies to the law of diminishing losses. Without a crazy exogenous event like last time (war in Ukraine + FTX) the panic is probably overblown. BUT... BUT.... BUT.... I do personally think AI will be a version of the dotcom bubble and that of course could carry us into the 20s range for a short period. AI investment is really the main character in this market at the moment....Bitcoin will certainly retake ATHs around the next halving (whether AI is legit as the market is hailing it to be or not). My guess with AI, in the next couple years it will create major losses, in the next 20 years it will be used in vastly different ways than today that are not even remotely as compute intensive as the capex of today implies. OpenAI will more than likely be the AOL of it all too imo...

ubermensch1001

Bro, what were the big catalysts in 2018? Unless you were/are overly invested into alts, the drawdown here with BTC is literally nothing compared to previous cycles AND we are already very close to the 200 week moving average. In 2018 we respected this quite well as the floor around 3k and only went noticeably below this in March 2020 during the COVID scare AND after the collapse of FTX later in November 2022. I'm not telling you throw in your life savings or sell your kidneys, but this is a fantastic place to be accumulating right now.

bccrz_

This is the first time I’ve seen Bitcoin go into bear market without a big catalyst (I.e FTX blowup, Luna meltdown, etc).

iterativ

Like those that waited for 10K after FTX ?

Actual_Pattern_265

> Bitcoin's supply is still fixed at 21 million. Rehypothecation, derivatives, synthetic BTC, make the supply infinite. People learned nothing from FTX. Or gold and silver in the past. It's incredible. There is no such thing as fixed supplies with modern financial instruments - especially in unregulated offshore exchanges, who can rehypothecate BTC to the tune of...nobody knows. FTX was a significant amount, and likely not even a drop in the bucket.

BagPitt

Cool your socks, dude. Plenty of accounts with history turned off. Binance has been fudded to oblivion and back and still around rofl. Meanwhile FTX not so much lol

Necessary-Nature-380

\-25% for bitcoin in the 1 week time frame. That's around $380 billion completely wiped out in market cap. If that doesn't signal "bad actors" considering how neither COVID nor FTX was as drastic... then look elsewhere. Wake me up when September ends.... that's September 2028 😐