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Reddit Posts

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Rat Poison, Tulips and a Pet Rock: Everything Bitcoin's Been Called (so far)

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Bitcoin’s last 90 days have a 97.1 correlation with a stretch ending in February 2023

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

For HODLers: want to know your portfolio risks?

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

A walk through some of bitcoin's history on the blockchains: the 2010 inflation bug, the halvings, Mt. Gox

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

I’m starting to think Bybit may be heading toward bankruptcy

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

I’m starting to think Bybit may be heading toward bankruptcy

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Bybit Could Go Bankrupt This Year

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Bybit Could Go Bankrupt This Year

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

The "Presidential Cycle" Strategy: Why Buying Bitcoin 2 Years Before US Elections Works

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

is bybit having liquidity issues? withdrawals are not being processed

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Two sides of the same coin

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

It has already happened just like always. Sorry guys if you missed out

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Is this the first bottom in bitcoin history that every single bull called exactly?

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Found this FTX hat cleaning out my closet

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

How unlucky can I be?

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

4th Cycle Never Began or Ended

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

SBF and FTX: The Complete Breakdown of How $8 Billion in Customer Crypto Vanished

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Is ZEC the next LUNA? From June 1–July 27, when the critical bug was disclosed and panic was highest, less than 1M ZEC moved. Since July 28, 3.3M ZEC has moved into Ironwood in just 16 days. That looks less like real users moving coins and more like an exploiter moving funds.

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Individual centralized companies (Coldcard, Bitpay, FTX, MtGox, etc.) will always have failures. Bitcoin is secure. Cybersecurity expert Roman Yampolskiy to Rogan: "If someone could hack Bitcoin, there's a trillion dollars sitting there. The fact that no one has claimed it tells me it's secure".

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

If you lost crypto to a hack (eg. coldcard), a dead wallet, or a collapsed exchange, there's a tax angle worth knowing

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Warren's SEC letter on the TRUMP coin reads less like an enforcement request and more like a CLARITY Act negotiation move

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

History repeats.

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Coldcard Hack Sparks Biggest Bitcoin Migration Since FTX

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Storing Bitcoin On Exchange...

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Cold Wallets: How to handle trade-off?

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Your keys, not your crypto. A 330K lesson for all.

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

PSA, tomorrow the sun will rise again

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

After the Coldcard attack, I’m honestly losing more and more faith in crypto security who can we trust anymore?

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Bottom Signals

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Laziness Helped Me Dodge a Bullet?

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Unbelievable that redditors were recommending Cold Card!

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Reflection on today's episode

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Where Did the $8 Billion Go? #cryptonews #storytime #ftx

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Every crypto account you make is a database with your name on it. Here's the legal case for swapping without one.

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

PoR ratio everyone screenshots doesn't mean what people think it means

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

BitMEX and BitMart shutting down in the same week is the healthiest thing to happen to crypto this month

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

OKX: love or hate?

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

FTX Customers to Receive Up to 120% in New $900 Million Payout

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

Risk analysis on the largest individual ETH book

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

U.S. Senate unanimously opposes clemency for FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

The Justin Sun Offshore Trap: How HTX and Poloniex Use "AML Cyber-Terror" to Freeze Users' Retail Funds and Cover Multi-Million Dollar Exploits.

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

History Suggests the End of the Bear Market by EOY 2026

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

Crypto Dilution

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Anyone else worried that it’s too easy?

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

So guy what’s the next big thing / catalyst for crypto

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

What will happen to Bitcoin once MicroStrategy collapses and fails?

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

This dip is different. Crypto might not recover…

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Without a MICA license, Nexo is at a higher risk of doing a "Celsius, Voyager, BlockFi, and Genesis"

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Every major exchange and lender collapse from 2014 to 2023. The pattern is always the same.

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Bitcoin will reach Saylor’s liquidation point

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Clarity Act, simple explanation and status

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Mt. Gox to FTX: a writeup of the major crypto custody collapses

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

How I got my parents to finally understand Bitcoin

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

just your daily reminder that FTX held 7.84% of Anthropic

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Sam Bankman-Fried Loses Appeal as Federal Court Upholds 'Robust' Fraud Conviction

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

FTX founder SBF officially petitions President Trump for a pardon.

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

FTX Co-Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Applies for Trump Pardon

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Anyone else lose more money to their own emotions than to the actual market?

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried applies for pardon from President Trump

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

Anyone else feel like this 50% crash hits different than the last few?

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

It's wild watching the market unwind like this

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

How long till Nexo bursts?

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Stormrake - Dodgy custody of Bitcoin

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Stormrake Crypto Broker - Dodgy Custody!!!

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

2014 HODLer still HODLing

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

SBF looked like a genius

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Going balls deep into Bitcoin again!

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Today is giving me COVID crash vibes.

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Bitcoin Warned Us About FTX. Nobody Listened

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

I knew better. I still sold near the bottom.

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Regime vs. signal — what LUNA and FTX taught me about crypto risk frameworks

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

Regime vs. signal — what LUNA and FTX taught me about crypto risk frameworks

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

SBF didn’t lose $8 billion. He hid it. Here’s the timeline.

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Vivek's Strive Buys Another $85 Million in BTC.. Are We OKAY?

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

FTX Law Firm Fenwick Agrees To Pay $54M in Settlement

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

Voyager Bankruptcy Update (May 2026): Court Deadline Extended Six Months

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

please read hyperliquid fundamentals

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

8 years in, calling it

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

I made an animated documentary on FTX's last 24 hours — the Binance call, the $8B hole, and what really happened that night- YouTube

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

What's the safest way to stake ETH?

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

What's the single best decision you've made in crypto, and would you make it again knowing what you know now?

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Crypto Sentiments

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

My BitMEX review after 5 years - the good, the bad

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

Bitcoin funding rates have been negative for 46 consecutive days. The last time that happened was right after FTX collapsed, at the bottom of 2022.

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Trump-linked World Liberty Financial borrowed $75 million (in stablecoins) against their own token WLFI from a platform its adviser co-founded. FTX vibes?

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Moving your crypto off an exchange is the right call. But there's a problem nobody talks about.

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Moving your crypto off an exchange is the right call. But there’s a problem nobody talks about

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

What Is the Current Status of FTX Tokens and Stocks After the Bankruptcy?

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

How to live on a bitcoin standard during a bear market

•r/CryptoMoonShots•See Post

How to Track Bitcoin Prices in Real Time: Best Apps and Tools

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Former FTX Engineer Nishad Singh Fined $3.7M by CFTC, Avoids Prison After Cooperation

•r/CryptoMoonShots•See Post

How FTX’s Bankruptcy Affects Investors and Legal Proceedings

•r/CryptoMoonShots•See Post

What Is FTX and Why It Mattered in the Crypto World

•r/Bitcoin•See Post

Five year holding stats that'll blow your mind

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried 'Was A Victim Of An Out Of Control Prosecution,' His Mother Says

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

Fear & Greed just hit 10.

•r/CryptoMoonShots•See Post

Best Apps to Track Oricon Shares and Omicron Coins in One Place

•r/CryptoMarkets•See Post

the wallet with the best accuracy I track just went $65M short on ETH

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

Survived another cycle! The reality of 8 years in crypto

•r/CryptoCurrency•See Post

FTX Has Paid $10B to Creditors and Another $2.2B Is Coming on March 31

Mentions

Seriously I have Binance, Coin base, PayPal, and over 10 sketchy exchanges (got into crypto very early)  never had money stolen. I believe 2 of those were a pyramid type scheme OC fell for and FTX I could see how people fell for that one. You would think OC would learn to keep his crypto in his own personal cold wallet by now

Mentions:#OC#FTX

Binance. Coinbase. Trust. FTX. Celsius. Genesis. Paypal. I have had assets STOLEN from every one of them. I've had a dozen traditional bank accounts in my life and have yet to have a single dollar kept for nefarious and wholly criminal reasons. When it comes to crypto, it's so normalized, it's embarrassing.

Mentions:#FTX

Unfortunate that you’re finding out like this but It’s highly recommended to keep your funds off of an exchange and only use them as needed. They’re not trustworthy in a multitude of ways. Think FTX, BlockFi, Celsius, Bitconnect, Mt.Gox, Bitfinex, Thodex, etc. Hope you eventually get your funds back

Mentions:#FTX

I was buying at $16-$30k after FTX. So, no, I'm not in the red.

Mentions:#FTX

It's not a conspiracy theory, it's just how derivatives work. CME futures, options and perps are cash-settled, so you can have big BTC exposure without owning a single coin. Perp volume and open interest regularly dwarf spot, and liquidation cascades there move the spot price. They also don't "bankrupt themselves" if BTC doubles. Market makers hedge. The ones who don't are the ones who blow up (FTX, Celsius). And you're right that spot ETFs hold real coins, but that's only one slice of the market. Nobody has to be secretly manipulating anything for paper exposure to move price. That's just leverage and derivatives.

Mentions:#CME#BTC#FTX

did you hear about FTX? 

Mentions:#FTX

I lost 5k with BlockFi just because themselfs invested on FTX and I make like 50€ a day maybe? You either get up and learn your lessons or just dwell on it I guess... It could have been worse mate, since there are people who have lost all or most of their life savings. My advice is, take it like a learning certificate/medal and diversify your investments só that if one fails, you have others to offset the risck of said failure.

Mentions:#FTX

Is this FTX’s $800 million worth of equipment?

Mentions:#FTX

Everyone thought FTX was safer than Binance in 2022

Mentions:#FTX

Spoken like someone who didn't experience the FTX collapse

Mentions:#FTX

> If you think exchanges are safe you must have missed FTX, Celsius, voyager, etc... Those corrupt firms never had the esteem or longevity of Coinbase or Binance. The people who put their money in them were already risk-takers.

Mentions:#FTX

If you think exchanges are safe you must have missed FTX, Celsius, voyager, etc...

Mentions:#FTX

FTX Veteran here. I genuinely thought my crypto was safer on the Exchange. Didn't bargain force the exchange to be the crook.

Mentions:#FTX

I’ll give you some hints • BlockFi • Celsius • Haru Invest • Voyager • FTX • Midas Investments They all gave you juicy % on your BTC, but can you tell me where they are now? In prison, doing life. You might not have witnessed this shit show personally but I can guarantee you that those like us who have lived through this disaster, have a very strong opinion on whether it’s a good idea to lend your coins away for some measly %.

Mentions:#FTX#BTC

I’ll give you some hints • BlockFi • Celsius • Haru Invest • Voyager • FTX • Midas Investments They all gave you juicy % on your BTC, but can you tell me where they are now? In prison, doing life. You might not have witnessed this shit show personally but I can guarantee you that those like us who have lived through this disaster, have a very strong opinion on whether it’s a good idea to lend your coins away for some measly %.

Mentions:#FTX#BTC

Don’t forget FTX, Gemini, etc.

Mentions:#FTX

Or FTX or mt Gox or BitForex or CoinBene, oh wait…

Mentions:#FTX

Didn’t FTX have basically the same set up, operating framework, and regulations to follow? I’m not saying they are identical to Coinbase, but all the features above are parallel for both of them

Mentions:#FTX

At 0.01 BTC there's no wrong answer, but the risks on each side aren't quite what they first look like. On the exchange. Risks include insolvency or fraud (Mt. Gox, FTX), account freezes, KYC or regulatory problems, and hacks. Large exchanges have handled these better in recent years, but "not your keys, not your coins" is true. It's a counterparty risk you can't control or fully see into. For a small amount you're DCAing into, many people accept it as a temporary holding spot. On self-custody. The biggest risk usually isn't hackers or wallet companies. It's you: a lost seed phrase, a backup that was never tested, a typo in a written word, a passphrase you forget, malware on a machine you thought was clean, or heirs who can't access anything. Far more Bitcoin has been lost to user error than stolen from well-run exchanges. That's the real cost of the added complexity you mentioned.

Mentions:#BTC#FTX

I withdrew my funds from FTX like 3 days before they . Not your keys, not your coins! I almost learned that the hard way.

Mentions:#FTX

FTX thought your money was their money, too

Mentions:#FTX

Just another stupid headline. Who tf cares. The 2014 and 2018 ones were not even major drops, were unrelated to political risk, and recovered within a month or two. Bitcoin wasn’t a mainstream topic then. 2022 was more likely related to FTX collapse. If you’re gonna sit here and try to anticipate drops so you can time your investments, you’re gonna lose money.

Mentions:#FTX

Personally, I’d not buy and go self custody, but a lot also depends on where do you have it now, do you think it’s safe?? Assuming you do, since you’d have already moved it by now! For context, in the aftermath of the FTX debacle I panicked a little and bought a ledger. I didn’t move everything but it was a good bit, since then we had all the Ledger issues. I rarely look at it, and I’m now nervous about it. I did go to look \~9 months ago, it was a problem opening, and I was busy at the time, so I put it away again. I need to such myself up to get it out and actually concentrate on getting open. But, at this time I’m not bothered about selling anything, so I’ve basically put it out of mind. Since I bought it and initially loaded it, I’ve a lot more on my Exchange, and feel it’s safe there, I’ve no intention of loading anything else to the Ledger. Remember, this is just my experience, and from that, it’s the reason I’d say no, don’t bother. But, lots of people are happy with their cold wallets.

Mentions:#FTX

Can’t speak for 2014 or 2018. However for 2022, I think the whole FTX ordeal was much more impactful on the price drop than midterms.

Mentions:#FTX

Dude, FTX

Mentions:#FTX

Post is by: Gigseye and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wxkh88/sbfs_ftx_quietly_built_possibly_the_greatest/ In April 2023 the FTX bankruptcy estate sold a 5% stake in Anysphere, the company behind Cursor, for $200,000. Exactly what it had cost a year earlier. On current marks that stake would be worth about $3 billion. And that is not even the big one. The $500 million Anthropic check from 2021 would be worth roughly $77 billion today on straight pro-rata math. Add Robinhood, Solana, Sui and the rest and the full 'what if' portfolio lands near $95 billion. All of it built with customer money, by a man now doing this math from a prison cell. The story is genuinely fascinating. I wrote the whole thing up here: [https://substanceoverstatus.substack.com/p/he-turned-500m-into-77-billion-then](https://substanceoverstatus.substack.com/p/he-turned-500m-into-77-billion-then) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Mentions:#GP#FTX

That topic was huge a few years ago, until everything collapsed: • BlockFi • Celsius • Midas Investments • Genesis Global Capital • Voyager Digital • FTX and many more folded. I would not chase yield by lending out your funds. It’s just not worth losing it all.

Mentions:#FTX

a crypto that takes no accountability for selling to insiders and rugging its community...and then tries to frame FTX as if the logic of blaming an outside entity for your own corruption....that's not a good crypto to begin with. If Ethereum allowed FTX to manipulate it using perp futures, then ETH would be a failed coin. But that only happens with ICP because ICP is a VC scam.

You’re gunna have to back that up with something. Because this is the first take ive ever heard that exchanges are more reliable than hardware wallets in my 10 years here. There have been well over 500 crypto exchanges that have gone bankrupt and stolen peoples money 17 of which are major exchanges, like FTX, Mt Gox, BlockFi, Celsius.

Mentions:#FTX

Spent a lot of money with Block-Fi and got less than a quarter of it back. The shit part was they only gave back what it was worth when they froze FTX finances. BTC had almost quadrupled in the time elapsed so I really only got back a quarter of a quarter. But that experience is actually what made me forget other shit-coins and focus entirely on BTC and cold storage.

Mentions:#FTX#BTC

Even 7-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady couldn't escape the FTX breakdown. If BTC doesn't hit $1M soon, we're all joining him in that cardboard box.

Mentions:#FTX#BTC

This is better than the structure I had, so I'm taking it. Labels in the first half, and then a second half that's just "it can't come back from this" with the date and the thing: Mt. Gox in 2014, the China mining ban in 2021, the 2010 overflow bug, the 2013 chain split, the 2018 inflation bug, FTX. Same conclusion every time, different reason every time, which is the part worth showing. Can I credit you by handle for the idea?

Mentions:#FTX

24k, I made my first purchase in summer 2020 about 10k from the sale of my swords. Then waited on my check from the 401k cash out through September and caught it at 16k. Watching it go from 10k to 16k waiting on that damn check to come, deposit, then clear was hell. Then I DCA all until 2022, I got an inheritance of 50k. 20k went to new floors, 5k a new gas range and water heater and the rest went to BTC, I bought the day after FTX. I was sweating it though because I had watched it all go to 69k then crash down to 15,500. Everyone was saying wait to 10k but I thought old me would have panic sold so I should panic buy. Then DCA until 2024 then lost my job. I haven’t bought anything since.

Mentions:#DCA#BTC#FTX

And the FTX collapse single handily prolonged the 2021-2022 by 45-60 days So it really went 406 days, 362 days, 300 days, now 267 days. Clear trend imo

Mentions:#FTX

Or even the last five years. They have to do back to growth that will only happen once and never again. It should of died when FTX collapsed, but people want to get rich quick and don't realize they will never see thode hyper batshit crazy growth again. I also don't think people realize, Bitcoin is more 'legitimized' than ever and has more access to the general public through ETF's and is still just not doing much. Could it hit 125 again? Maybe, but a lot of people that put in over a hundred are going to take their money back out soon as they break even. A lot of the new investors are at a loss and would the done better in almost any other investment. Why continue to take the risks. So even if it does hit 125K again, where is it gonna go from there? I personally don't see how it's gonna double triple or go even higher anytime soon without something extremely significant happening. I'm not saying you cannot make money with it though. It's not like you can't lose money in the stock market, but crypto comes with far higher risks that no longer are outweighed by the reward.

Mentions:#FTX#ETF

Did Binance do an FTX ?

Mentions:#FTX

> This exchange had non of those issues in the 15 years of its existance *existence Gox, Quadriga, FTX, etc. - they were all okay until they weren't.

Mentions:#FTX

As they say, *not your keys, nacho cheese*. You can't track past the custody provider, which in most cases is Coinbase Custody. They pinky-promise not to hypothecate, but that is not externally verifiable For instance, and as far as history goes, FTX US was also regulated and properly contractually segregated and bankruptcy remote (from FTX, Alameda, etc.), but the reality is that the coins were no longer there when shit hit the fan.

Mentions:#FTX#US

there’s the folks who started shoveling their net worth into Bitcoin when FTX was all over Fox News

Mentions:#FTX

I actually have a legit answer to this question. It stems from human psychology and how our species evolved to survive. Humans evolved to understand cause and effect, a subconscious understanding of Newton’s third law. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. If a saber-toothed tiger is chasing you, it will not stop until something stops it. Like a spear. It’s the same reason gods exist, to explain the inexplicable. We used to have many gods, that explained the wind, the sun, the moon, etc. Once science explained those away, we were left with one god to explain the rest. This brings me to markets. Stocks, bonds, commodities, sports, tulips, doesn’t matter. A market is a market. When something is trading in one direction, humans believe that only an outside event can cause that trajectory to change. Cause and effect. The flaw is that markets don’t work like that. The markets are the collective will of all participants. The market moves without regard to what’s happening around it. Sure, a news event can cause some volatility, but it’s not going to change the collective will of the market as a whole. The latest group to be burned by this phenomenon was Bitcoin bears. Price was moving down and bear the bottom several news events occurred that made them believe price was dropping even further, since the effect of something like cold card wallet attacks is negative, therefore that only adds to the trend. Well, once again, as can be related thousands of times over thousands of years, that line of thinking is incorrect. The market does not move “reacting” to outside events. If anything, outside events are reflected in the market. The cold card hack was at the bottom of a market of some degree. The “FTX crash” at the bottom of a market after a sustained downtrend. The beginnings of World War II, you guessed it, the bottom of a down trend. Same thing happens to the upside. A “pro crypto” president gets elected in the US, etc. The news events that happen are reflected by the trend that is already occurring in the market. Of course this happens at varying degrees. So, of course price can reverse for BTC, without a “reason.” It has before and will continue to do so. Because the laws of the market are more akin to quantum physics rather than Newtonian physics. Humans just aren’t hard wired to understand it since it goes against our very survival instincts. Anyway, that’s the answer to your question. 

Mentions:#FTX#US#BTC

You (BTC) have been the benchmark all along, so here is your card. One year forward from current volatility with no trend assumed: worst 5% of years lose 51% or more, one in five paths goes through a 50% drawdown, one in a hundred through 70%, median path bottoms at −38%, one in twenty ends below half, one in twenty doubles. Replays on 100% BTC: the Oct 2025 to Jul 2026 bear −51%, the 10 Oct flash crash −7% in a day, the June cascade −15%, the FTX week −23%.

Mentions:#BTC#FTX

ZEC is the whole story here. It runs at about 150% annual volatility, more than twice SOL, so with 48% of the money it carries 72% of the risk and the four coins behave like 1.8 independent bets rather than four. The upside of that is real. In a one year simulation from current volatility and correlations with no trend assumed, 30% of paths double and the top 5% end above 7x. The other side is that the worst 5% lose 71% or more (BTC alone, 51%), five paths in six go through a 50% drawdown at some point, and one in three goes through 70%. This mix does not do moderate. Two things about ZEC the weights don't show. Over the last twelve months its correlation to SOL, NEAR and HYPE was 0.35 to 0.45, low for crypto, which is why the diversification ratio is a decent 1.19. Over the last 90 days that has flipped. ZEC's beta to BTC is now about 1.9, the highest in the book, so a 30% BTC drop today maps to ZEC −56%, NEAR −40%, HYPE −38%, SOL −35%, and the book −46%. The coin that diversified you last year is the one most sensitive to BTC right now. Replays on today's weights. The October 2025 to July 2026 bear, which cost BTC 51%, would have made this mix +47%, entirely because ZEC rose 152% inside that window while SOL fell 66% and NEAR 39%. The path still went to −22% first, in March. The June 2026 liquidation cascade cost 29% in five days and ZEC fell 33% in it, so in a fast deleveraging it does not hedge anything. The FTX window costs 41%, mostly SOL at −63% (HYPE did not exist yet and is filled in by beta). One number to distrust. Resample the last twelve months of actual daily moves and the median outcome is 14x. That is not a forecast, it is the 2025-26 ZEC rally dominating the sample, and what it tells you is that this book's entire track record is one event. Liquidity at retail size is a non-issue for all four, and a stock market shock on its own barely registers. As usual, there are model estimates under those assumptions, not advice.

Ran the five coins in your screenshot (if there are more below ROSE, post them and I'll add them). At current prices that's about $1,020, LTC 70%, DOGE 10%, VET 9%, ADA 8%, ROSE 3%, and you need roughly +80% to get back to what you paid. Bad year first. Simulated one year forward from current volatility and correlations with no trend assumed, the worst 5% of outcomes lose 64% or more. The same dollars in BTC alone lose 51% or more. The median path goes through a 49% drop at some point during the year, so the odds of sitting through a 50% drop in the next twelve months are about one in two. For BTC alone it is one in five. One path in ten goes through a 70% drop. The recovery question, since that is really what you asked. In the same simulation, 18% of paths end the year at or above what you paid in May 2025. Put the same dollars into BTC and that number is 8%. The reason is the same one that makes the 50% drop likely. These five coins run at about 65% annual volatility against 44% for BTC, and volatility cuts both ways. It is what gives you a real shot at +80%, and it is what puts 13% of paths below half of today's value. If the next twelve months look like the last twelve (a resample of the real daily moves since September 2025), the picture is much worse, under 1% of paths reach breakeven and the median path loses another 54%. That is a statement about how bad the last year was for these five, not a forecast. Which coin does the damage. LTC is 70% of the money and 69% of the risk, so there is no hidden concentration beyond the obvious one. The five move together at 0.8 to 0.9 with each other (ROSE at 0.6), and the mix has a diversification ratio of 1.08, meaning five coins take about 7% of the volatility off compared with holding one of them. If BTC drops 30% tomorrow, the last 90 days of betas say LTC drops 26%, DOGE 35%, VET 31%, ADA 44%, ROSE 29%, and the book 29%. The coins you are down most on (ADA, ROSE) are also the ones that fall hardest when BTC does. Replays of actual crashes on today's mix. October 2025 to July 2026 costs 68%, BTC alone 51%. The 10 October 2025 flash crash costs 23% in a day, BTC 7% (the mix falls three times as far as BTC on a fast liquidation day). The June 2026 cascade costs 20%, BTC 15%. The FTX week costs only 1.6%, but that is because LTC happened to rise 11% in November 2022 while DOGE fell 47%, so treat it as luck rather than protection. The August 2024 yen unwind costs 20%, the December 2024 Fed selloff 17%. Days to get out. At this size every one of the five sells in minutes, total slippage about $4 even at 5% of a stressed day's volume. Liquidity is not a risk you have. What the numbers above do not include is that all of it sits on one exchange, which is a separate risk from price. One more thing the models say. A stock market selloff on its own (S&P −15%, dollar +8%, credit down) moves this book by under 1%. It only reacts to what BTC and ETH do, which matches the 0.8 to 0.9 correlations above. And the necessary disclaimer at the end: none of this is a prediction or advice.

Post is by: Peturio and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wn2ypp/for_hodlers_want_to_know_your_portfolio_risks/ A lot of the focus in this channel is on short-term trading risk or the risks of one specific coin. For a HODLer's portfolio, the longer-term, structural risks, however, matter more than things like daily momentum. Post your allocation in percent (e.g. 50% BTC, 20% ETH, 20% SOL, 10% LINK) and I'll run your portfolio through our risk engines to answer questions like: * How much could your mix lose in a bad year, and is that better or worse than just holding BTC? * What are the odds of sitting through a 50% drop at some point in the next twelve months? * Which coin does most of the damage when things go wrong? * How would your portfolio hold up in a repeat of the Oct 2025 to Jul 2026 crash, or the FTX week? * How many days would it take to get out of each coin in a panic? Four or more coins works best. Will reply as soon as possible. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

He should look into Manifold Markets, and Manifund. They started with seed money from FTX Foundation. Manifold and Manifund kind of split, and Manifund recently hired Caroline.

Mentions:#FTX

The regulated companies are often the most fraudulent. Think FTX or Crypto dot com. Kalshi is rigged like the rest of them, and they're going to die on that hill. Should've stayed quiet.

Mentions:#FTX

Real OG HODLers survived Mt. Gox, China ban 5.0, and FTX collapse. A 2.5% dip or a $10k pump doesn't even move our heart rate anymore.

Mentions:#FTX

FTX was not a US regulated company. Any US company could commit fraud and submit false books (including your bank). But I don't think cash app is going to risk their industry leading company to loan out your $59 of Bitcoin bro.

Mentions:#FTX#US

The SBF / FTX fud of 2022 was apocalyptic

Mentions:#SBF#FTX

FTX was like 5 minutes ago

Mentions:#FTX

Yes me. I used to keep some on Celsius and i had loads on FTX too. Never felt safer and more secure. Ignore the noise when they say NYKNYC. Thats nonsense. Anyway, after losing a sizable amount (FIRE money) Im off to Wendys for my day shift. Bye!

Mentions:#FTX#FIRE

Buying SOL for the first time after FTX, @ \~ average $28 for the months after, then staking, still have it. Like everyone else, wishing I’d of bought more of course. But my BTC at an average of \~$50K is very nice too 😌

Mentions:#SOL#FTX#BTC

To be fair, so far cycle geeks have been right. I remember in the last bear cycle right around August, we all thought $19K was the bottom and we had entered the bull market, and cycle geeks got the timing wrong. Then we dropped to $18K. Then in November FTX tanked and we crashed again to $15K.

Mentions:#FTX

People seen to forget FTX was a thing

Mentions:#FTX

well anything in life can be considered speculative even the so-called ‘risk free assets’ or to a more dramatic extent, the humble street cross as demonstrated. so therefore, you are technically correct . your originally comment was gambling. under strict definition arguably also correct. ill be honest i started out trying to prove you wrong, despite having doubts. everyday risks=walking across a street>bench pressing>commercial flying>driving<>charter flight deposit account>savings account (fed gaurentee) hedging>reasonable derivitives justified risk/reward assets=gold (lol) > AAA tnotes>AAA tbonds> upper tranche cdos (nvm you are correct) > mid tranche (lol)> non cyclicals>etfs (lol)>blue chips>LLY>NVDA>mid cap>small cap>S&P 500=world index=overvalued mega caps=>BHP(ax)=>AUD=ASX200=iron+copper+superannuation+property>LLY>TSLa>META>stocks>equities > low tranche > property (lol) speculation = gold>bitcoin>ethernet>black jack>poker>option spreads>ai stocks with other moat>pure chip stocks>forex>Elon musk=TLSA>DOGE>spacex>bonds at risk of default> selective bond default > bonds in default>ada>luna (pre crash). Darwin’s award contenders=gambling>sports>roulette board> leaving money unguarded in a public space> smoking cigs>shit coins>whatever meme coin is popular=doge=luna (post crash)>FTX>LUNA pre crash>upper tranche cdos>0DTE>taking meth>fking a girl with hiv>lottery ticket>GME stocks>SEERS shares gold x2 is intentional. many others probably should follow the same rule. list is WIP. i could go on, but i concluded half way through the subjective risk justified section that you are indeed correct.

Personally I wouldn’t call going down to 3k with FTX “resilience”

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

"Nothing has gone wrong so far, therefore nothing could ever go wrong". 🤡 Tell that to the users of Gox, Quadriga, FTX, Celsius, etc. etc. etc. NYKNY₿

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

Is it shady? Sure. Is it illegal? I dunno Celsius and FTX pulled it off for a little while

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

When there's trillions of dollars waiting on the sideline for this bill to pass, the pressure to pass it is impossible to ignore. Those holding out are only protecting the banking monopolies who invest people's money without their consent. This might be a controversial comment but, it kinda reminds me of FTX tbh.

Mentions:#FTX

This isn't the first time crypto legislation has been considered. Sam Bankman-Fried's legislation got hearings in the House and Senate before FTX imploded from fraud.

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

You sure about that? Would you still have your FTX coins?

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

Happens all the time, would take a scandal similiar to FTX or equivalent. BTC has not even hit a weekly uptrend yet

Mentions:#FTX#BTC

Whatever the final text says, the practical effect of any market structure bill is that compliance cost becomes the moat. Big venues absorb it, small ones can't, so "clarity" usually means fewer venues rather than safer ones. The genuinely useful parts for retail are narrow: custody segregation and reserve requirements, the FTX shaped holes. Most of the rest is about who gets to issue and list, which was never a retail question.

Mentions:#FTX

FTX - Utility token

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

I had all my btc (multiple coins) on FTX. I withdrew everything 3 days before they froze the withdrawals. I read strange tweets from some insiders that something fishy is going on there, I ignored it and went to sleep, but while I was falling asleep I started to be nervous about it so I woke up a took everything to my trezor. Btw I also dodged celsius collapse by like 2 weeks.. I am not taking any chances now, everything is on my trezor. But seeing what happened with coldcard, well I am not so calm anymore. I guess I will just betray self custody and move everything to btc etf..

Mentions:#FTX

This is basically using SOL as a peak example of when you should inverse this sub's sentiment, because this sub is treating ZEC in 2026 the same it treated SOL in 2021(but more accurately 2023, when it started climbing and every commenter in this sub had some cope about how it was only pumping for the FTX unlocks). >I was wondering why nobody’s been talking about Z cash despite the insane run it’s on. Plenty of people are talking about it, but this sub, like this exact thread is point out, is at best far behind the times, and at worst is oblivious to what is going on. If you're on X or if you follow the industry and market, you've been hearing buzz about it for a while now.

Mentions:#SOL#ZEC#FTX

>But BTC was already down 72%. FTX and Luna brought it to 77%. BTC was down 30% ish before Luna. It went from $40k to $20k afterwards

Mentions:#BTC#FTX

You are so right about FTX, that disaster was exactly why we need some rules but not this kind where only the suits get protected

Mentions:#FTX

It's rather important for the institutional side than for retail but it should prevent us from incidents like FTX

Mentions:#FTX

I started to dig more into what happened in previous cycles. I think I may have jumped too quickly to the conclusion that 59k was definitely the bottom. It might still be the bottom, but I don’t see it with the same certainty anymore. I initially thought a drop of only 50% would make much more sense in following past cycles. I thought the only reason past cycles dropped more than 50% was because of events like FTX. But BTC was already down 72%. FTX and Luna brought it to 77%. I also thought that because bull cycles dropped so much in intensity, bear winters would also get equally milder, but they’re actually not. The bounces this year to 96k, 84k, 81k, are very similar to the 2018 bounces to 12k, 9k, 8k.

Mentions:#FTX#BTC
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

I think you'll find that creditors tend to take a big haircut in insolvency cases. | Service Name | % Returned to Creditors | |--------------|------------------------| | FTX | ~30% | | Celsius | 65% | | Genesis (Bitcoin creditors) | 51% | | Genesis (Ether creditors) | 66% | | Voyager | 72% | | Mt. Gox | varies by user | | QuadrigaCX | ~ 46% | | Youbit | ~ 75% | | Prime Trust | varies | | Cryptsy | Minimal |

Mentions:#FTX

From my limited understanding - the most appealing aspect of the Clarity Act would be moving consumers from the back of the line to the front when it comes to to FTX-esque claims on assets.

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

i felt so at first until the FTX collapse and the NY exchanges were fine.

Mentions:#FTX

The red flag for me was FTX Super Bowl adverts - just took a while for momentum to slow down from that point. In my opinion, even the real money and power didn’t recognise the public had lost interest, so we’re in this slow death stage now whilst they try offload.

Mentions:#FTX

It's because of FTX that all the exchanges learned not to do stupid things like gamble with client assets.

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

The Coldcard hack was a bad-RNG bug in how some units generated the seed, not proof that cold storage itself fails. A passphrase Trezor with a good-entropy seed isn't exposed to that one. And "safer on an exchange" forgets Mt. Gox, FTX and Celsius: most of those people waited years or never got made whole, so getting paid back once was the exception, not the rule.

Mentions:#FTX

if you wanna learn just think in the gold, if you have 0.5 kg of gold that buy in 2020 that was in $1.589, and now today (today) is $4.400, this meaning that that piece of gold that you buy in the past have new value, and can buy a little like 0.05gr of gold without lost the rest of you gold, know this register in a public book, were said: you "anna" (example), sell 0.05gr of gold at "samahel" for $7,16, you have the money in he have the piece of gold. other thing is that for the problem of FTX (1 Exchange that lost money of so much clients,) we need to be carefull if you have so much money, you need to buy a wallet cold, that is more securyti in the case that someone try to hack you, or hacken the exchange like BYBIT or other, so this means that you btc dont lost for the exchange, ( this part is just if you have so much money in crypto, if you have $10 (like me) or $100,1000, is something secure, even all dont share your password, and the wallet this subject for the future now no. because you´re a begginer in need to take this slowly uwu, in other thing just, keep the calm i need a little of money too sister, even all i know that you get it xD

Mentions:#FTX

I trust Gemini as I understand they are subject themselves to recurring audits I just wouldn't use their lending /interest bearing options as people lost money during the FTX fiasco

Mentions:#FTX

Luna during the crash at 1$… put 70k woke up 8 hrs later it was 5000$ Algorand during its peak, Solana before it crashed to 8$ but I sold it after FTX collapsed as everyone said it was dead and will go to sub 1$ and a few small cap coins that went to 0 and got delisted a while after as I also though that small Mc on coinbase means it has higher chance to pump

Mentions:#FTX

Yeah, but is it worth putting yourself into debt? You might have to sell off some of your bitcoin to pay off the loan given that it hasn't decreased in value. How bitcoin will behave up until the next halving in April 2028 is a guessing game. What if there's a new FTX or Mt Gox event? If you're willing to take that risk, then go for it. But I wouldn't.

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

i was mad at first but guess which exchanges survived the FTX collapse

Mentions:#FTX

From Mt. Gox, to FTX Alameda Research to Bybit, Cyprus, Bahrain, U.A.E., Saudi Arabia... From Sim Swapping to straight up assassinations/hacking of Bitcoin whales... Anyone who trusts Michael Saylor, Musk, Dorsey, or Bitcoin is surreal/bewildering... People could have been retired if there wasn't insane nefarious activities going on

Mentions:#FTX

So was Sam of FTX, fraud is profitable, right until it isnt.

Mentions:#FTX

ich is why bank lobbies spend their money fighting stablecoin legislation rather than Bitcoin. **Threat to official currencies.** Close to zero anywhere with a credible currency. Real in places with high inflation and capital controls — except that there, people move into dollars, usually via stablecoins, not into Bitcoin. So crypto's actual monetary effect so far has been to extend the dollar's reach into places its banking system never got to. It's been dollarising, not de-dollarising, which is the opposite of the usual framing. **Threat to financial stability.** This one has flipped. In 2022 the blowups — Terra, Celsius, 3AC, FTX — stayed inside crypto and the wider system barely blinked. Post-ETF that isn't true any more, because the exposure now sits on regulated balance sheets. The live question stopped being "will crypto replace the financial system" and became "how much crypto risk has the financial system taken on." On your size point: market cap is the wrong measure for contagion. Leverage and interconnection are. A small asset held on leverage inside regulated institutions matters more than a large one held unlevered outside them.

Mentions:#FTX#ETF

People that dealt with FTX in 2022 and several other exchanges have much worse horror stories. This is why everyone loves to repeat the "not your keys not your coins" mantra, and they are right. No one should rely on any exchange to hold their bitcoin. My problem was that limits kept me from moving it quickly enough, an issue I hadn't taken into account when buying in bulk.

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

i got a little bit of everything. MSTR / IBIT / self custody / some on an exchange that survived a bank run during FTX

Mentions:#MSTR#FTX

I remember the fools so vividly at 15k, the day after FTX so many bears sitting on the sidelines until 10k. I made the biggest btc purchase of my life that day. Fuck them

Mentions:#FTX

That sounds familiar > The court noted that FTX touted itself as “the safest and easiest way to buy and sell crypto,” and that customer assets, including digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ether, were held in “custody” by FTX while stating FTX segregated customer assets from FTX’s own assets as a general principle, when in fact customer funds were commingled and misappropriated

Mentions:#FTX

October gang is waiting for an FTX equivalent but market seems healthy enough

Mentions:#FTX

lol Sol crashed because FTX and alameda blew up.

Mentions:#FTX

That’s a fair point only if you look at it strictly through a legacy TradFi lens, but it completely misses the architectural breakthrough of Bitcoin. We use centralized custodians for gold because storing and shipping heavy physical gold bars across the globe is a logistical, expensive nightmare. Stocks literally require a centralized legal registry (like the DTCC) just to exist. In the fiat system, custodians are a necessary evil. Bitcoin was engineered specifically to eliminate that exact counterparty risk. Sending a billion dollars in BTC takes 10 minutes and requires zero armored trucks, vaults, or bank approvals. It's digital bearer property. When you hold "paper Bitcoin" on an exchange, you don't actually own the asset; you just own a digital IOU from a centralized entity. We all know exactly how that movie ends (FTX, Celsius, Mt. Gox, BlockFi... need I go on?). Applying the same flawed, centralized ownership criteria of the fiat system to the very asset built to replace it is wild. It’s like measuring the adoption of email by counting how many people print them out to mail them via FedEx. Sure, it makes the adoption numbers look bigger for the headline, but it totally defeats the purpose of the technology.

Mentions:#BTC#FTX

I did this with ZEC but that was completely a (very) happy accident. BTC (possibly eth) is the only fire and forget crypto...even then, I'd personally wait til the next catastrophic crash (like the FTX collapse) to buy in. Just collect USDC/USDT til the bottom is in. Buy BTC, write down your seed phrase, stick it in your gun safe/safe deposit box, check back in a decade. Otherwise you're just playing in the casino (not trying to be a dick, just relating my own mistakes/successes

•r/BitcoinSee Comment

Also you let someone else hold your bitcoin and they could get hacked, or go south like FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, etc… lol nope not for me.

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

For real. Maybe it's just because I've been through a few cycles, but this bear market didn't seem that bad. There was no FTX type crash. And now tons of hopium that the bear market is over. Makes me think that we'll see one more leg down to really shake people out. And no, I'm not selling my stack to bet on that. I'll continue to DCA and be happy if I can do so at lower prices.

Mentions:#FTX

laughs in FTX lol

Mentions:#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

At least your not like one of those idiots who were waiting for sub $3k Btc during FTX.. Oh wait...

Mentions:#FTX

Last year, I was looking and this and comparing with the chart. When it went to ATH on 07 OCT 2025 and bear began, in front of my eyes, I was like, ffff... Even though it seems like a bottom rn, I'm just retardmaxxing this OCT 6th thing. I also think this bear was too shallow, and no real black swans yet (nothing like FTX or even Luna).

Mentions:#ATH#OCT#FTX
•r/BitcoinSee Comment

Not during the FTX business. They partnered along with other companies for asset recovery. There is something called as DSP you can look it up. What BitGo did was got hold of some part of aseets through DSP and created a platform with 3 auto liquiditation dates where former FTX users can sign to BitGo platform and recover their lost assets. It's a strategic move these companies do but BitGo had no part managing funds when FTX was in business.

Mentions:#FTX

Did they not learn from FTX

Mentions:#FTX