FTX

SerenityCerulean

Worst narratives tend to bottom. Last was the FTX collapse. The fact that Bitcoin only dropped 5k for this size of narrative is itself very bullish.

mazdarx2001

Quick tip. I had funds in FTX. I tried to cash it out to my bank account, and it would lag out and crash. But transferring to another wallet worked.

Ill_Imagination_6791

"First time?"- FTX CEO

Flexerrr

Binance is insolvent, will soon be compared to FTX

OtherwiseNeat9617

The so called FTX tokens valued at 20 dollars were fake... The capital was locked in certain tokens once the administration took over. So the liquidations were limited. Not all of it was fake. Most of the profit was fake.. they ran out of capital when the market turned red. Textbook rookie mistake

Leading_Wafer9552

This isn't like FTX/Celsius where the platforms were insolvent and fraudulent. Binance has already stated they have the funds to make their users whole and cover any loses.

farfromjordan

How did FTX creditors get paid out over 100% if it was all fake

6DeliciousInches

Binance assets under management is $160 billion. $5 billion was stolen. ONLY $155 BILLION REMAINING AT BINANCE ARE WE FUCKED OR WHAT?????? FTX had $9 billion AUM and misappropriated… $9 billion in customer funds. So let’s go over once more. FTX lost all the money. Binance lost not 5%. Final point, a pump is a $1000 BTC 1 min candle.

OtherwiseNeat9617

The difference is. CZ and binance hace 140 to 150 billion USD under custody.. FTX had nothing, because it was all fake

SeasawPhilosopher

The wild thing is FTX had nearly 8% ownership in Anthropic at one point. If they didn’t fuck up and then have to sell that position it could have been one of the greatest trades in history. They would have turned $500 million into $40-50 billion.

soks86

They used an Excel spreadsheet to guesstimate balances. It was even worse than you describe, but yeah, Binance and FTX are very different beasts.

TheRabbitHole-512

It’s not the same as FTX. The heist was big yes 6.5B but they have 140B total, it’s less than 1%, it’s actually less than 0.5%. Give CZ some credit and the benefit of the doubt. So far he’s been a champ.

SE4NLN415

I mean just use Mt Gox or FTX for example. Long and tedious but maybe some partial recovery. Coldcard Hack or even with the Liquid federation shit, absolutely ignored and fucked?

bhalter80

I'm waiting to see the \*s put on that including being made whole and as of when and in what currency. If they're paying out in kind that works. If they're paying out in USD or equivalent it will be a fiasco like FTX where there are plenty of opportunity cost losses and effectively redemptions that get taxed

tenor_tymir

It’s FTX all over again, just in a different form. People, don’t be stupid and don’t start selling, fear is creeping in again and that’s when buying becomes the sweetest.

FrugalityPays

You're right that the bank and brokerage rules don't apply. Crypto at Fidelity isn't covered by FDIC or SIPC. The protection comes from how they hold it. About 98% sits offline in cold storage, in shielded vaults across multiple sites. Moving any of it takes multiple signatures and approval from more than one person, so there's no single point of failure. They don't use outside custodians or exchanges like Coinbase, and they don't lend out client assets, which is what wiped out FTX customers. So it's not a government guarantee. It's Fidelity's own custody controls. The real weak spot is persoonal login

mischag107

Nothing to the scale of the FTX going bust at 10 billion

_Commando_

FTX was saying the same thing "Funds are SAFU", and what else... "Deploying more capital" ? Yea good night Binance.

EducationalSock948

Fidelity are not safer. They store the btc on Coinbase, which can be hacked like Binance or go bankrupt like FTX. There is indication that North Korea’s next target hack is ETFs via Coinbaase.

lombuster

FTX wa$nt a hack, right!?

clutchtho

I read stories like this and think, eventually this will be the story of everyone. I've also been in crypto for 10 years. Moved my crypto to a hardware wallet off of Celsius 1 month before collapse, moved more funds off FTX around the same time as well, I considered myself lucky getting through those 2. But now I've never felt less confident in the space than I do now. Major exchanges being hacked. Hardware wallets being hacked. Zero days coming out every day now. Even if you do everything right for years and years, something completely out of you control will eventually come in and take it all away.

togetherwem0m0

Binance isnt collapsing. FTX collapsed because they had 0 bitcoin but maintained customer ledgers of billions. In a weird way, this demonstrates publicly that binance has bitcoin to steal. So proof of funds. Not the best way to do it, but its recoverable.

Abgg_Reviss

Yup. Also, it really can't be an FTX event imo, because the total amount stolen is less than $3B, right? Binance holds over $200B if I'm not mistaken. This amount should be coverable by their profits alone, unless a bigger exploit hits them soon.

JuxtaposeLife

Agree 💯 As most focus heavily on the spot Bitcoin price, the longer term trends and activities of those holding 80% of Bitcoin (wallets that haven't moved in 6 months or longer) are the real alpha about what is coming. My read, this won't be an FTX event, but those who need liquidity will lean heavy into trying to convince retail this is an FTX event. So that they can accumulate at the start of this bull cycle.

Turdfurgsn

Reminder that the FTX collapse marked the bottom of BTC in that run Sell if your scared but I see opportunity

Driftmier54

Literally a copy of last bull market beginning when FTX went to zero 

Suguha_chan

Never would have thought that binance is this bear markets FTX

maxis2bored

Banks have been around as long as the monetary system, crypto is emerging. When banks were emerging, they were robbed too. With that, even deposits at FTX, Celsius etc eventually repaid. Again this heist (while huge) only presents 4% of their holdings, so if anyone has actually lost anything we have yet to know.

likethemouse

I guarantee you someone lost millions on FTX, didn’t learn their lesson and now will lose millions on Binance

YoghiThorn

FTX was not a black swan

bryanchicken

It’s over. Just like it was with FTX and all the other times shit like this happened. It’s funny it always happens at the end of the bear market too

Independent-Piece505

It got very ugly after FTX. It will get ugly now. I noticed some prices have rebounded, I don't see this being sustained.

binary_blackhole

Nah I was buying at 60, there was no apparent reason why it was crashing it was just an opportunity to buy more. I’m just not sure if we’ll have another FTX scenario, if binance handles this really badly, and if they start selling btc to cover losses, the market will eventually hit new lows.

Flexerrr

Sure, FTX said same thing https://preview.redd.it/gn4z6jc86lyh1.jpeg?width=585&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f54b3aeb1b51e7223cbe5a740622615a8af3bba5

Perslue

That's kind of exactly my point. FTX was the start of the bear market last cycle, but you're saying it was previously the end of the bear market. But we went from like 70k to 20k after FTX went down and didn't even start to look like we were going back up until a year after that. So if your idea of this being an end of bear market symbol is kind of crazy.

Weird-Web7456

Of course it does but it’s not like this is our first rodeo, FTX… There is was too much smart money in there now for it ti just go bust. They are getting it right where they want it b4 lift off

Ok-Act-705

Macro/Micro COVID/FTX

binary_blackhole

do you guys think it’s a good time to sell to enter again at a lower price and raise my btc holdings? it feel like this will be like the FTX crash, everyone will panic and think crypto isn’t safe and all will crash into oblivion before the next cycle

iterativ

Couple months later it was at 40K or so, after FTX.

AndriukasV

never trusted binance knowing that they had deals with FTX

Hot_Rough_7867

Not if nothing is inherently broken with the blockchain. FTX/Celsius showed the platforms were insolvent or fraudulent. This is an external compromise where Binance says user funds are safe and they’ll cover the losses. Temporary sell pressure? Somewhat. Dramatic re-pricing of Bitcoin itself or the broader cryptocurrency market? No, it shouldn't. People can always irrationally selloff their positions, but if they invested for the technology itself because they believed in it, then they shouldn't when there is nothing really wrong with it.

ubermensch1001

So, you are saying when FTX and Celsius collapsed back in 2022 there was no reason for those to be major catalysts for sell side pressure?

ubermensch1001

3-6 months from now is not that far off, man. We are going to set a new all time high well before the 2028 halving. Think about it this way, November of 2022 we had the FTX crash and saw BTC at around 16k. 15 months later it was setting a new all time high in late February/early March of 2024.

Plastic_Tangerine898

excuse? The only way he could have made FTX suceed was if he dropped alameda but SBF was dumb he didn't create FTX to become rich he created FTX so he could trade through it with Alameda. The guy is not smart. What I am saying is that he was at a crossroads, because Alameda was in the negatives and they had no assets. So either he bankrupts alameda or steals customer funds. Did you not follow this situation? He was desperately trying to get investors into alameda by skewing their balance sheets to make them seem more profitable. There were only 2 choices, bankrupt alameda or steal funds. You can't just press pause on a business that owes hundreds of millions, and their lenders also started partially recalling loans putting more pressure on alameda. That's the fraud, that's the illegal activity. You can't just imagine up a world where SBF suddenly aqcuires a brain halfway through his business empire and randomly starts making sound business decisions when the entire strategy that got the seed money to start FTX was high risk trading.

Wombo_Zombo

Crypto is highly speculative and scares easy. It ruins trust in the asset class FTX crash caused a 20%+ drop in BTC and bottomed that cycles bear market.

AriesThef0x

No it was November of 2022 The Coindesk report came out Nov 2nd, FTX halted withdrawals on Nov 8th, FTX filed for chapter 11 by Nov11th.

ukredimps2k

Agree- this is the FTX of this cycle…

its_witty

Exchanges are legitimate until they aren't, FTX also said they have money to cover the hack, and shortly after it was revealed they don't. I too believe they'll be fine, but only time will tell.

tompie09

Just like FTX

bryanchicken

Wasn’t FTX the bottom last time? This shit is as old as time. If time was a teenager

MightyWolf39

Wait when FTX collapsed all crypto crashed but when the largest hack happens on the largest crypto exchange BTC goes down 4%

North_Sun_2777

Ah yes "ThE UsEr FuNdS ArE SaFe" said FTX calmly .

Rickard403

Pretty sure in 2022 the price halved after the FTX collapse. It could get very ugly.

Roflcopter71

Didn’t FTX crash happen around this time 4 years ago?

Tinre

FTX said the same thing

robert-anderson-0009

Same thing they caught FTX in… do you have it and do you have the liquidity for an attack… we are about to find out

LilSeanGOfficial

Maybe not as bad this time though, considering every time an exchange goes down it takes less time to recover than the previous. Mt. GOX took 3 years to get back where it was at, but FTX only took less than a year. My guess is that there weren’t as many exchanges back then so if one went down there was lots of liquidation happening, whereas now it’s just a drop in the ocean

SpecialDonkey6563

Selling your Bitcoin because Binance got hacked is like selling Nvidia because Schwab got hacked. We’ve seen this movie before with the FTX collapse. Nothing about Bitcoin has changed.

Sothisismylifehuh

Do Kwon said this. (LUNA) Stephen Ehrlich said this. (Voyager) Alex Mashinsky said this. (Celsius) Sam Bankman-Fried said this. (FTX) ...

MelangeBot

Their insurance fund (SAFU) is completely wiped out, [it's only $1 billion in BTC](https://www.binance.com/en/academy/glossary/secure-asset-fund-for-users) The name of the fund was originally inspired by [this meme](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DelF6zEHXpE) FWIW, at the end of every crypto bear market, a CEX usually blows up (eg FTX)...

Jenda66

Oh boy.. remember FTX hack bottom?

CyanDew

i mean, Bitcoin has survived things that would kill most systems: a 2010 bug that briefly created 184 billion coins (fixed in hours), the Mt. Gox and FTX collapses, China banning half its miners overnight, and four 75%+ crashes, each followed by a new high. BTC been declared dead 400+ times, yet the network has been running almost nonstop since 2009 and has never been hacked. exchanges and companies fail; but Bitcoin keeps producing blocks. thats the resilience i’m referring to.

Infinite_Raise8611

They are not rational- somewhat convinced half of em weren’t even here. In 2022 FTX/terra Luna/celsius had imploded and everybody legitimately thought it was going to 0- ETFs did not exist, saylor was irrelevant, it was illegal in many countries relative to today and Ukraine war/rate hike cycle was happening. Macro today is undoubtedly trash but I have been calling for early/shallow bottom on socials since last year. The infrastructure has changed/no major exchange implosions/cycle without true mania phase- no reason to assume we’d get a 70% dump.

SufficientPop7502

But without any big catalyst, -no FTX crash, but a wider adoption at the market

No-Masterpiece2246

what are you on about? "We" didn't build any "guardrails". FTX was the most regulated crypto exchange in history, and it was the biggest scam. They bought the entire US government off through SBF's Harvard and Wall Street connections. If you think their "regulations" are to protect you, I have a bridge to sell you.

read_more_comments

He's waiting for FTX to return so he can dump all his crypto there. It was worth 32 billion in 2022, so imagine how good will be in v2!

AutoModerator

Post is by: Huge_Position890 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/algotradingcrypto/comments/1xaq5ea/since_the_spot_etfs_bitcoins_6sigma_hours_are_3x/ \- \*\*Shape changed.\*\* On hourly BTC, \*after removing volatility\*, extreme moves became rarer after the January 2024 spot ETFs: 4σ hours \~1.7x rarer, 6σ hours \~2.8x rarer. The tail index rose from \~2.3–2.4 to \~2.8–2.9 (z 5–6.6, pre-registered, survived a planted-effect check). \- \*\*But tails breathe.\*\* The tail was just as thin in 2020–21 and fat again in 2022–23. The latest thin phase lines up with the ETF era. One event, one asset: I can't call it causal. \- \*\*Volume explains how fat the tails are, not why they thinned.\*\* Scaling returns by volume makes tails much thinner overall, but the post-ETF change stays the same size. \- \*\*Drying volume:\*\* the next day is calmer (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%). But that's just calm continuing. It adds nothing beyond what a volatility model already knows. Sharp moves after drying volume went down 52.7% of the time vs 54.3% on other days. A 10-point directional edge is ruled out. **Why I looked again** Last week I posted that crypto's tails are fat in every window and swing no more than noise. I also saw a hint of a slow drift, but I found it after looking at the chart and it didn't clear my bar (SNR 2.5 vs 3). My co-researcher's bet this time was "the ETFs changed the shape of the tail." Mine was "no, they changed volatility, not the shape" (50%). Both were written down before the data was touched. **Setup** \- \*\*Data:\*\* BTCUSDT spot, hourly, Binance, Aug 2017 – Sep 2026. That's 79,807 hours: 55,951 before 11 Jan 2024 and 23,856 after. \- \*\*Cleaning:\*\* \- Remove the weekday × hour pattern, separately before and after the ETFs. US trading hours matter more now, and that is not a tail shape. \- Divide each hour by a GJR-GARCH-t volatility estimate. What's left is the \*\*shape\*\*: how surprising a move is \*given\* current volatility. \- \*\*Measure:\*\* Hill tail index on the top 5% of each tail, before vs after. Higher α = thinner tail. \- \*\*Null:\*\* 200 simulated paths from the fitted model with a \*constant\* tail, each re-estimated the same way. Simulated paths that blew up were filtered out. \- \*\*Checks before looking at the real result:\*\* \- no false alarms when nothing changes (0–1%); \- a planted tail change was caught (100%); \- a planted \*volatility-only\* change was not mistaken for a shape change (0–3%). \*\*Power note.\*\* I first tried daily BTC and a pooled cross-section of \~400 coins. On simulated data, a sizeable tail change was caught only 6–12% (daily) and 30% (pooled) of the time. Pooling coins doesn't help much because crashes hit all coins on the same days. Hourly data was the first design with enough power, so I used it. **Result 1: the shape changed** | | before ETFs | after ETFs | z | | left tail (drops), α | 2.29 | 2.82 | 5.3 | | right tail (rises), α | 2.42 | 2.87 | 6.6 |  \- \*\*Robust to tail size:\*\* the same result holds using the top 2.5% or 10% instead of 5% (z 5.3–6.1). \- \*\*Fitted separately:\*\* fitting the volatility model separately on each period gives the same picture. Volatility fell \~43%, and the tail parameter rose from 3.4 to 4.3. So it's not only "BTC got calmer." Given the calm, big surprises got rarer. My co-researcher was right; I was wrong. **Result 2: but the tail breathes**  \- \*\*2018–19:\*\* fat. \*\*2020–21:\*\* thin, about as thin as now. \*\*2022 to early 2023:\*\* fat again (FTX era). \*\*2024 onward:\*\* thin. \- \*\*The latest thin phase lines up with the ETFs.\*\* In the last window that ends before the ETFs, the tail index was still \~2.2. It rises through 2024. \- \*\*Why I can't call it causal:\*\* \- It's one event, on one asset. \- The tail has moved like this before, without ETFs. \- Other things changed in 2024 too (halving, market structure). \- A test of "is the ETF date special" also ran into this. Split points before the ETFs look like breaks too, because their "after" segment contains the ETF era. So that test can't separate the ETFs from a slow regime change. **Result 3: what about volume?** \*\*A data trap first.\*\* Binance's zero-fee BTC period inflated BTCUSDT volume 2–4x from July 2022 to March 2023. It went from $231B in March 2023 to $47B in April. Anyone using Binance BTC volume across 2022–23 should cut that window. I did. \*\*Does volume explain the tail?\*\* The mixture-of-distributions idea (Clark 1973) says returns look fat-tailed because information flow (volume) varies. So I scaled each hour by its relative volume. \- \*\*The level, partly yes.\*\* The tail index jumps from 2.3 to 3.8; volume does explain a lot of \*how\* fat the tails are. \- \*\*The ETF-era change, no.\*\* It is the same size with or without volume scaling (+22%/+18% vs +20%/+15%). So whatever thinned the tails, it isn't the \*amount\* of trading. Book depth or participant mix are candidates I can't test before the ETFs; I only started collecting depth in 2026. **Result 4: drying volume and the next move** "Volume dries up before the big move" is common folklore. I defined "drying" as the last 24h volume being below 60% of its 30-day median: 394 such days vs 2,578 others.  \*\*Calmer? Yes, in plain terms.\*\* The next day's median range is 2.4% vs 3.1%. But that's just calm continuing. \- My pre-registered test asked whether drying volume adds anything \*beyond\* the volatility model. \- It first said yes: +18% \*more\* movement than the model expected (SNR 4.2). \- The volatility model turned out to be the problem. It barely mean-reverts (persistence ≈ 0.999), so after any calm stretch it under-predicts. \- Adding the last 24h of volatility to the controls makes the drying-volume effect vanish (SNR 0.7). \- \*\*Bottom line:\*\* drying volume tells you the market is calm, which you already knew. \*\*Direction? No.\*\* \- After drying volume, 52.7% of sharp hours (beyond 3σ) went down, vs 54.3% on other days. The difference is −1.7 points, 95% CI \[−9.5, +6.2\]. \- Over 72 hours the shares are 54.1% vs 54.0%. \- A directional edge of 10 points or more is ruled out. The 24h return difference is also indistinguishable from zero. **What it means** \- \*\*For risk, not for direction.\*\* Stops and leverage sized on ATR implicitly assume a fixed tail. Before vs after the ETFs, moves beyond 4σ were 1.7x and beyond 6σ 2.8x more frequent in the fatter phase, so a stop several ATRs away gets hit by noise noticeably more often. A rolling tail estimate is a cheap way to know which phase you're in. \- \*\*"Coiled spring" volume:\*\* it neither predicts which way the next big candle goes nor makes it more likely than the current calm implies. \- \*\*If you compare realized volatility to GARCH forecasts, control for recent volatility.\*\* Otherwise "after X, it got busier than expected" can just be GARCH being slow after a quiet day. I almost published exactly that. **Scorecard (written down before the data)** \- \*\*Tails:\*\* co-researcher "shape changed" — right. Me "shape same" (50%) — wrong. \- \*\*Drying volume → sideways:\*\* we both expected a calmer-than-expected day. In plain terms it is calmer, but not beyond what calm already implies, so the pre-registered rule says no. \- \*\*Drying volume → direction:\*\* I gave "no direction ruled out" only 30%. That's what came out. **Limitations** \- \*\*One asset, one exchange, spot.\*\* BTC only, on Binance spot. \- \*\*Hill depends on how much of the tail you use.\*\* I fixed 5% in advance and reported 2.5% and 10%. \- \*\*The ETF effect isn't identified.\*\* It's one event, the tail moves on its own, and 2024 had other changes too. \- \*\*"Drying" has one definition\*\* (60% of the 30-day median). I didn't try others, on purpose. \*\*References\*\* \- Hill, B. M. (1975). A simple general approach to inference about the tail of a distribution. \*Annals of Statistics\*, 3(5), 1163–1174. \- Quintos, C., Fan, Z., & Phillips, P. C. B. (2001). Structural change tests in tail behaviour and the Asian crisis. \*Review of Economic Studies\*, 68(3), 633–663. \- Clark, P. K. (1973). A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices. \*Econometrica\*, 41(1), 135–155. \- Drożdż, S., Kluszczyński, R., Kwapień, J., & Wątorek, M. (2025). Multifractality and its sources in the digital currency market. arXiv:2510.13785. (Their 1-minute data also shows BTC's thinnest tail in 2024.) \*Not financial advice. This is a research log.\* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

lus1d

Risk management is key. Leverage used properly is a way to reduce your risk. (Eg if FTX didn’t offer leverage I would have needed to have my entire trading bag on the platform for equity. Leverage meant I only needed 5% of my bag on the platform to take on a 1R or 1.5R trade) In 2018 CryptoCred did a great YouTube video on Risk Management (incl using leverage) and it’s likely your mate would still have his coins if he had watched it and closely followed the practice. (The trade I proposed above is NOT following Creds risk management system)

Feisty_Emphasis_4412

the 2020 cycle dragging all the way to July 2025 feels like a stretch, that crash at end of 2025 was pretty textbook cycle ending stuff but I get what you mean about things being off, the timing been weird since covid messed everything up. government money printing and all that FTX drama definitely threw a wrench in the natural flow 360k for 2028 actually seems conservative if AI really does pump stocks another 50%, that kind of liquidity flood would send btc flying past your target easy

mathaiser

Pointless scam at that point. Open to manipulation. This was FTX and Celsius.

ShitAfterShower

FTX. Didn’t even flinch.

No_Strawberry1266

FTX

Upper_Top9348

Same idiots that were in FTX.. and before that MT gox or whatever it was called lol

Excuse_Unfair

Seriously I have Binance, Coin base, PayPal, and over 10 sketchy exchanges (got into crypto very early)  never had money stolen. I believe 2 of those were a pyramid type scheme OC fell for and FTX I could see how people fell for that one. You would think OC would learn to keep his crypto in his own personal cold wallet by now

baby-samdwich

Binance. Coinbase. Trust. FTX. Celsius. Genesis. Paypal. I have had assets STOLEN from every one of them. I've had a dozen traditional bank accounts in my life and have yet to have a single dollar kept for nefarious and wholly criminal reasons. When it comes to crypto, it's so normalized, it's embarrassing.

Deemkore

Unfortunate that you’re finding out like this but It’s highly recommended to keep your funds off of an exchange and only use them as needed. They’re not trustworthy in a multitude of ways. Think FTX, BlockFi, Celsius, Bitconnect, Mt.Gox, Bitfinex, Thodex, etc. Hope you eventually get your funds back

Awkward_Potential_

I was buying at $16-$30k after FTX. So, no, I'm not in the red.

UniversityHelpful823

It's not a conspiracy theory, it's just how derivatives work. CME futures, options and perps are cash-settled, so you can have big BTC exposure without owning a single coin. Perp volume and open interest regularly dwarf spot, and liquidation cascades there move the spot price. They also don't "bankrupt themselves" if BTC doubles. Market makers hedge. The ones who don't are the ones who blow up (FTX, Celsius). And you're right that spot ETFs hold real coins, but that's only one slice of the market. Nobody has to be secretly manipulating anything for paper exposure to move price. That's just leverage and derivatives.

obsodion

did you hear about FTX? 

Xiximaro

I lost 5k with BlockFi just because themselfs invested on FTX and I make like 50€ a day maybe? You either get up and learn your lessons or just dwell on it I guess... It could have been worse mate, since there are people who have lost all or most of their life savings. My advice is, take it like a learning certificate/medal and diversify your investments só that if one fails, you have others to offset the risck of said failure.

Algo1000

Is this FTX’s $800 million worth of equipment?

josemartinlopez

Everyone thought FTX was safer than Binance in 2022

josemartinlopez

Spoken like someone who didn't experience the FTX collapse

mel2000

> If you think exchanges are safe you must have missed FTX, Celsius, voyager, etc... Those corrupt firms never had the esteem or longevity of Coinbase or Binance. The people who put their money in them were already risk-takers.

nmount911

If you think exchanges are safe you must have missed FTX, Celsius, voyager, etc...

toasterpocket

FTX Veteran here. I genuinely thought my crypto was safer on the Exchange. Didn't bargain force the exchange to be the crook.

tenor_tymir

I’ll give you some hints • BlockFi • Celsius • Haru Invest • Voyager • FTX • Midas Investments They all gave you juicy % on your BTC, but can you tell me where they are now? In prison, doing life. You might not have witnessed this shit show personally but I can guarantee you that those like us who have lived through this disaster, have a very strong opinion on whether it’s a good idea to lend your coins away for some measly %.

tenor_tymir

I’ll give you some hints • BlockFi • Celsius • Haru Invest • Voyager • FTX • Midas Investments They all gave you juicy % on your BTC, but can you tell me where they are now? In prison, doing life. You might not have witnessed this shit show personally but I can guarantee you that those like us who have lived through this disaster, have a very strong opinion on whether it’s a good idea to lend your coins away for some measly %.

Aggravating-Buy-1695

Don’t forget FTX, Gemini, etc.

cypherblock

Or FTX or mt Gox or BitForex or CoinBene, oh wait…

shpeucher

Didn’t FTX have basically the same set up, operating framework, and regulations to follow? I’m not saying they are identical to Coinbase, but all the features above are parallel for both of them

SuchTrezorVeryCrypto

At 0.01 BTC there's no wrong answer, but the risks on each side aren't quite what they first look like. On the exchange. Risks include insolvency or fraud (Mt. Gox, FTX), account freezes, KYC or regulatory problems, and hacks. Large exchanges have handled these better in recent years, but "not your keys, not your coins" is true. It's a counterparty risk you can't control or fully see into. For a small amount you're DCAing into, many people accept it as a temporary holding spot. On self-custody. The biggest risk usually isn't hackers or wallet companies. It's you: a lost seed phrase, a backup that was never tested, a typo in a written word, a passphrase you forget, malware on a machine you thought was clean, or heirs who can't access anything. Far more Bitcoin has been lost to user error than stolen from well-run exchanges. That's the real cost of the added complexity you mentioned.

DigitalDaydreamers1

FTX

OrvilleGreenenbacher

I withdrew my funds from FTX like 3 days before they . Not your keys, not your coins! I almost learned that the hard way.

bananacrazypants

FTX thought your money was their money, too

Day_Nastee

Just another stupid headline. Who tf cares. The 2014 and 2018 ones were not even major drops, were unrelated to political risk, and recovered within a month or two. Bitcoin wasn’t a mainstream topic then. 2022 was more likely related to FTX collapse. If you’re gonna sit here and try to anticipate drops so you can time your investments, you’re gonna lose money.

KateR_H0l1day

Personally, I’d not buy and go self custody, but a lot also depends on where do you have it now, do you think it’s safe?? Assuming you do, since you’d have already moved it by now! For context, in the aftermath of the FTX debacle I panicked a little and bought a ledger. I didn’t move everything but it was a good bit, since then we had all the Ledger issues. I rarely look at it, and I’m now nervous about it. I did go to look \~9 months ago, it was a problem opening, and I was busy at the time, so I put it away again. I need to such myself up to get it out and actually concentrate on getting open. But, at this time I’m not bothered about selling anything, so I’ve basically put it out of mind. Since I bought it and initially loaded it, I’ve a lot more on my Exchange, and feel it’s safe there, I’ve no intention of loading anything else to the Ledger. Remember, this is just my experience, and from that, it’s the reason I’d say no, don’t bother. But, lots of people are happy with their cold wallets.

AriesThef0x

Can’t speak for 2014 or 2018. However for 2022, I think the whole FTX ordeal was much more impactful on the price drop than midterms.

redditsucks365

Dude, FTX

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