FTX

CoffeeAlternative647

Same happened with MTGOX in early days and years later FTX, Quadriga, Alameda. Bitcoin not only survived, it came back stronger. Although Bitcoin will take a hit if Saylor go belly up, it is resilient enough to survive. The honey badger don't give a single F.

BrooklynNeinNein_

MSTR is not fraud though. It could be that they'll fail as a company. But not because they're fraudulent, but because their "product" didn't succeed in the market. Things like FTX were straight up fraud, MSTR is a debatable idea, but not fraud.

riscten

Market went to 16 because of FTX though. We might see something similar if shit hits the fan at one of the treasuries. Probably not Strategy, but who knows.

Jason_DeHoulo

Saylor will create a death spiral similar to what FTX did pretty soon imo

Educational_Cable405

I've had funds on Gox, Celsius, and FTX. At some point I quit blaming bad luck and admitted I keep handing my coins to whoever has the smoothest podcast voice. We don't get our main character sacrificed, we volunteer one every cycle by giving a single guy custody of everything.

EddValera

SBF was giving interviews when FTX was already just debris.

2xfun

1) don’t talk about bitcoin with anyone 2) that person is not friend 3) we don’t know if it ever go up again. This might be the downfall of Stratergy and Saylor (FTX moment)

Awkward_Potential_

It would also be the most obvious buy in history. If you were there for Mt Gox, but didn't buy, and you were there for FTX and didn't buy, you'll probably also fade the fall of Strategy.

starvoice

From what I gathered so far: A company called Strategy owns 850k Bitcoins, made a bad decision of selling some Bitcoins for liquidity a little while back. With so many Bitcoins in their wallet, investors panicked and decided to hold or sell. By the time Strategy realized it's mistake that caused it's stock to fall, they decided to get even dumber by reversing course completely and start buying Bitcoins again! This made them look like children who don't know what they are doing, and made investors panic even more (FTX moment). The best course of action at this point is for Strategy to STFU and do nothing until the crisis they caused pass. Because any action they take now will be a wrong one.

Chemfreak

They have been smart enough in their various financial instruments and strategic debt and equity financing that it's a very strong house of cards. Yea there are scenarios where it would fail, but that scenario is like Bitcoin going to $20k for a pretty extended period of time or going significantly lower than $20k. This is also discounting that they would not be active in their survival as price falls. It's not like FTX or Celsius or something like that, MSTR is a bit more sophisticated in a sense that they have protected themselves much better.

BTCMachineElf

We only went to 16k because of the FTX collapse. This time we have ETFs and treasury companys instead of FTX and Tera Luna. This is the bottom.

Clue571

Yeah since you took that text out of chatgpt, im gonna do the same. No way im reading all of this nonsense. "This write-up is a perfect example of why people should read the actual bill instead of social media summaries. You're oversimplifying a highly complex piece of legislation into a bunch of catchy talking points. The idea that a token is simply a commodity if it's open source and nobody owns more than 20% is not how securities law works in practice. Regulatory classification is far more nuanced than a single threshold. The claim that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are being permanently grandfathered as commodities is also misleading. The bill creates frameworks and criteria; it doesn't magically make regulatory questions disappear forever. Saying the Clarity Act will prevent another FTX is equally questionable. Customer asset segregation is a good safeguard, but fraud, mismanagement, and exchange failures can still happen under any regulatory regime. No law eliminates that risk. The section about stablecoin yield caps preventing another Terra-Luna collapse is also a stretch. Terra failed primarily because of flaws in its economic design, not simply because yields existed. The SEC vs. CFTC framing is another oversimplification. This isn't a battle between a "bad" regulator and a "good" regulator. The real question is whether the proposed division of authority is effective and enforceable. Finally, the political commentary about the President and his family has nothing to do with whether the legislation itself is sound. Mixing policy analysis with partisan opinions doesn't strengthen the argument. Overall, this reads less like an objective explanation of the Clarity Act and more like a collection of assumptions, speculation, and personal opinions presented as established facts." See ? Took me 30 seconds.

crazy_lolipopp

FTX 2.0 incoming

FitCompetition1804

Could be this bear market’s FTX moment. Only thing I’m nervous about is spending too much dry powder before it reaches the actual bottom.

Kitchen_Net_GME

That sudden move in 2022 from $20K to $16K was due to FTX.

Sothisismylifehuh

I've missed out of plenty of opportunities because I have been vary and suspicious. But that also helped me avoid disasters such as CEL and other platforms that promised massive yields. Same with algorithmic stablecoins like LUNA or CEXes like FTX with signup bonuses and too-big-to-fail mentality. Sounded too good to be true and wasn't worth the risks.

Kitchen_Net_GME

I think somewhere in the low to mid 50K range as well. We may have hit bottom. But we could go down to that spot. We spent quite a bit of consolidation in the price range we are currently in during 2024. I also think BTC is becoming less volume (relative to its past). I just don’t see us dropping 75% from our last all time high. Considering our last upward cycle was far less parabolic than previous rallies (percentage wise). I also think the last downward cycle should have bottomed out at $21K. Which would have been a 68% drop. But then the FTX disaster happened.

MarioWilson122

Well, since Trump didn't get him out, he'll likely be in there for quite a while. By the time he gets out, who knows what the crypto landscape will even look like. People are acting like he'll just walk out and launch another token, but technology, regulation, compliance, identity verification, AI monitoring, and fraud detection are all advancing rapidly. The industry could be a completely different beast in 20 or so years. Of course, people have short memories, so I wouldn't completely rule anything out. Still, if he does eventually launch something, it will probably be entering a much more mature and heavily scrutinized market than the one that existed during the FTX era.

Thecrookedpictures

It's not ideal I agree, none are. Been round for like 15 years of all this BS, One coin, Thodex, Bitconnect, FTX, Africrypt all huge ones too well over 3-4 billion some of them. In the end only a few will prevail

DreamingTooLong

If you don’t have control of your private keys You don’t have control of your coins If the website that has your coins disappears, so does your coins That’s the point of having a hardware wallet Remember FTX few years ago? That’s a perfect reason to use a hardware wallet

LargeSnorlax

Reddit (and especially /r/cryptocurrency) was overrun in 2020 by wallstreetbets posters. It became cool and hip to gamble irresponsibly because everyone was making money left, right and center. After the bear, none of those guys had any idea whatsoever about the space. They never looked at what they were buying, never had any idea how to make a transaction or even what the fuck Bitcoin was - They never had any need to have decentralized money, hell, their *entire identity was gambling with the most centralized money in the world*, the stock exchange. So a bunch of them quit. Became Buttcoiners. Buttcoin got the biggest population increase ever after FTX and the regular posters there today are people who bought the hottest garbage when FTX collapsed and have been calling crypto a scam because they suck at investing. Queue 2024 and Saylor. In 2024 MSTR started buying up Bitcoin wildly. A new cycle of noobs came in, buying MSTR at $300-$400 and causing 6 new Bitcoin all time highs in 2025. So you've got a whole fresh batch of institutional money who thinks they're going to be rich and think that Crypto is exactly like stocks and Saylor is a genius. And once again, just like clockwork, the cycle hits. Bitcoin goes down. MSTR goes down. WSB posters lose their shirts. What's funnier, is this is happening in the middle of one of the frothiest bubbles the stock market has ever seen, and all these clueless folks see that they could've invested in X or Y or Z and made it rich or whatever hindsight reality they've made up. Now we're back in another bear and the people who are here are people who have lost a TON of money, because they didn't do any research into the space whatsoever. None of them have any use for Bitcoin and I doubt 1/100 people who bought Bitcoin in the last run even know how to do a bitcoin transaction, let alone self custody it, which is the *entire point of owning Bitcoin in the first place*. So we're back in the same repeating situation - Before they go and join Buttcoin, the people who lost their shirts have to cope post about how crypto is a scam (obviously, because it didn't go up when they bought it) and how Quantum is going to make it obsolete or how no one uses it. It's all the same arguments, over and over again, every single time. Crypto is a space where to survive, let alone make profit, you actually have to know what you're doing. You're going to see the same sheep get slaughtered over and over again. They'll never listen to advice or to not go near frothy tops or to actually be involved in the space you're trying to make money from, but you'll sure hear from them nonstop when they pull the lever and the machine doesn't spit out coins.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

STRC and MSTR could be much larger than Luna and FTX combined. MSTR owns 4% of the total supply of BTC (over 840K BTC). Luna owned one tenth of that (about 80K). FTX owned 0. Customers had a total of around 100K BTC entangled during the downfall. Plus, an MSTR fall would have a ripple effect into other funds, custodial markets, and ETFs.

TradingBasicsToday

I get the panic. Being down 50% sucks. But no, it's not over for crypto. Solana has been through way worse. It dropped over 90% after FTX collapsed and came back to hit all-time highs. This feels terrible, but it's not the end. Crypto moves in cycles. We had a huge run, now we're in the cooldown. Sideways and dipping for months is normal. Not fun, but normal. The people who panic sell at -50% are usually the same ones who buy back at +100% later out of FOMO. That said, don't just "hold and hope." Reassess your position. Did you invest money you actually need? Did you understand Solana's tech and roadmap, or did you buy because number go up? Be honest. As for me, I'm down on some bags, up on others. That's crypto. If you believe in Solana long-term, zoom out. If you don't, cut the loss and move on. But making a decision based on fear or Reddit sentiment won't end well. What's your actual timeline for this investment? A few months or a few years? That changes everything.

ubermensch1001

This is something I've done several times, so I'll break down what I did. First time I did this was in the fall of 2020. From 2018 through then I had been steadily dollar cost averaging. However, from 2018 up until they first locked down for COVID my income and cash flow was very limited. When COVID hit though my income sky rocketed and I was aggressively dollar cost averaging throughout 2020. In the fall of 2020 I ended up getting a very small loan, about $2,500, with a very low interest rate and I used the funds to invest. The monthly payment was tiny and something I wasn't all that worried about. The second time I did this was in the fall of 2022 right before the FTX crash. I got a personal loan that had a high interest rate but I was buying at around the 200 week and knew that the gains from there would easily offset the interest I would have been paying. The monthly payments were also well within my budget and it gave me space to also continue to accumulate through dollar cost averaging. I ended up paying this loan off in early 2025, well before the full terms of the loan. By late 2023, about a year after getting the loan, I had practically doubled the original investment from this loan. I did something similar in the fall of 2024, which I still have, and also others recently here with this major sell off. Again, I kept all of this well within my budget while being able to also dollar cost average with my leftover income. I have it setup in a way where eliminating some of these loans is easy for me to do within a reasonable time frame. I would only suggest someone do this if they are very familiar with how this market works and have enough experience to know if they can emotionally handle the wild volatility. If you can buy during major dips or near bear market lows, like being around the 200 week right now, you will do quite well if you can let it sit for a couple years. I would also make sure to set this up to where the payments are well within your budget.

L3mm3SmangItGurl

I mean, isn't that kinda why we're all here? Sure, you have free will to invest in eth or sol or some other shit coin. What’s the promise tho? Give me your money and I'll give you insane ROI in a short period of time. Dude was a paper billionaire and had all sorts of insider info we would never be able to see. Anthropic, OpenAI were really good bets. Hadn't heard of either of those companies in 2022 let alone had the ability to invest in them. The FTX collapse happened before chatGPT was released. Just trying to see it from both sides. Yes, dude was a scammer. But if he was slightly less of a scammer and weathered the 2022 crash, like Binance did, he would have been able to make good on all the insane interest he was paying out to people to invest their money. Literally if the crash had happened post ChatGPT, he would have been liquid enough to stay afloat.

Hqjjciy6sJr

What's more bizarre is how FTX/SBF knew about Anthropic so early right when it was founded in 2021 and felt confident enough to invest $500 million... This was at a time when nobody outside specialized tech circles was talking about AI yet.

JeffreyDollarz

FTX2.0

classified_x

they weren't complete idiots, the guys at FTX, but the guys who flamed me after it went under and were saying the money was never gonna be returned, were. also the guys supporting Terra and bullying me before KR dude went missing

neonxmoose99

Is this SBF posting from jail or something? Who tf feels sympathetic for FTX in the big 26?

Xennenial

I bought through the 2018 crash, the COVID crash, and the FTX crash. Given how many people are currently talking shit about crypto right now, I can conclude this is the bottom or somewhere close. I have seen enough bottoms to recognize the pattern.

seambizzle1

Solana nuked the price of solana years before FTX came into the picture

filenotfounderror

FTX didnt hold anything, they were using customer funds to make these invesments.

Sacredwisp

There is very little FUD. Quantum is basically a meme, and so is MSTR selling 32 BTC. We've already retraced down the the 200 week moving average like every other bear market and hit several bottom indicators from the prior cycles at only -50%, such as over half the coins being underwater. This range was also the top in 2021, where it acted as resistance for nearly a year, and we spend 8 months accumulating here mid-cycle in 2024. We've also hit bullish divergence on the weekly RSI I believe, like we did on the FTX crash. Other than the % drawdown being lower and the mythology of "it must bottom on October", the technicals are all saying we've either bottomed already, or very close to it. I'm not saying it can't go lower. It absolutely can. I also expect we still have at least several months of chop left before it starts grinding up. That said, expecting it to crash to 50k or lower when sentiment is already shot and sellers are exhausted is wishful thinking unless we get another black swan and stock market crash. This is a fantastic price right now, and I expect we end the year on an uptrend with the next bull market started. Then, all the people who sold and are waiting for 40-50k are going to get sidelined and have to buy in higher again, pushing the market up even more.

HSuke

FTX was forced to liquidate its 8% stake in Anthropic in early 2024 for $1.3 billion. Imagine if could have held that until now.

rankinrez

This is largely how FTX was made whole. Couple of small investments in OpenAI, Antrophic etc

foxxxer22

bitcoin won't solve the problem which you mentioned. the paper money at least works also when there is a blackout, and FTX is bankrupt.

TheForesightGuy

There are still just too many Bankmann-Fried's out there, and another FTX-like scenario will hit as certainly as the Amen in a church! Can't really feel sorry for this guy.

sdea001

Strike has no fees on their daily DCA after the first week. I have been using them since FTX failed.

Low-Method3448

This is the same FUD as China banning mining, FTX collapse, Japanese carry trade implosion etc.

Subject_Ad3837

Hopefully, the cycles still hold up in 2029, but this just feels different than 2018 or 2022 due to alts never getting a proper bull run after the tariff crash and crypto market being outperformed by stocks and gold in 2025. In 2018, crypto was also less saturated and wasn't getting the same amount of negative publicity due to FTX and association with Donald Trump and his corruption schemes like Trumpcoin.

Educational_Cable405

Crypto already ran the esports experiment and it left a crater. FTX paid TSM 210 million for a ten year naming deal in 2021, Crypto.com signed Fnatic, Coinbase was plastered all over ESL events. Two years later the orgs were doing mass layoffs, TSM scrubbed the FTX name off everything, and the deals died in bankruptcy court. People aren't sleeping on esports, they watched the last cycle's money set itself on fire there.

futures_cj

The headlines aren’t even as bad as past cycles. 21-22 people were absolutely certain it was dead with regulation fears and the FTX collapse. Now it’s dead because of AI lol

aaj094

Inability to understand what I said is why people can't understand why FTX saga didn't make bitcoin die. It's because people change life stages, new people come into age brackets, world moves on. Nothing just rests on one sentiment of a point of time.

futures_cj

I remember 2021-22 when everyone was certain it was dead. FTX collapse, crypto fraud and regulation fears. Headlines were much worse than during this drop. Yet here we are again. This time not even as severe. The drops are getting smaller percentage wise each time. First around 85%, then 84%, then 77% and currently as much as 53%. Based off that I’d say 65 to 70% could be the bottom before it repeats the same cycle again.

diwalost

I think he should also file criminal suit against victims of FTX crash.. /s

Patient_Craft2195

It really depends on your location. For those in the US, you should choose Coinbase Advanced over the normal Coinbase. The fees drop from 3.74% to 0.6% for the same exact trade. This is low key a secret and a lot of people don’t even know that. When it comes to Robinhood, you should be careful for self-custody. Some plans don’t let you withdraw to your own wallet and you should definitely be avoiding the exchanges that have an “earn” that give you 8-10% APY. Half of those exchanges have blown up (FTX, Celsius, Voyager, and WazirX, which got hacked ). If you’re not located in the US, which country you live in is super important. If you drop your country, people will be able to give more specific and insightful responses.

mel2000

> btc tanked to 16k after the FTX collapse. BTC also went over 120K after the FTX collapse.

crunchyeyeball

How can you have multiple "all time" *lows* (ATL)? I see these same figures posted over & over again, but has anyone ever taken the time to *check* them? This being being a bitcoin sub, I say "***don't trust, verify***". E.g., Just looking at the most recent high & low, and a little googling: > The *lowest price of Bitcoin in 2022* was $15,760.19, which was recorded on ***November 21st, 2022***. This sharp decline followed a volatile year for the cryptocurrency market and the collapse of the FTX exchange. > Bitcoin reached its *highest price* on ***October 6, 2025*** when it hit an all-time high of $126,198.07 There are exactly **1,050 days** between November 21, 2022 and October 6, 2025.

Whole_Historian_7185

Stratagey is in a tough position. The STRC flywheel has become a $120M/month burden. Even though Strategy will probably get through this winter, what if they blew up? mt.gox and FTX did not destroy bitcoin... they just gave the rest of us better buying opertunities.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Interesting fact, the RSI for Bitcoin had dropped and was already getting into oversold territory before the FTX/Luna crash. Which made TA believe that it was a great time to buy for a bounce back.

ScooterMcWTF

Coinbase timeline has a 300k jump when I bought LUNA at 2am then went to sleep 😃. Yes, it was during the FTX fiasco. Had a great sleep though lol.

Educational_Cable405

The part people skip is that every dip shows up wearing a reason. March 2020 was 'the world is ending', late 2022 was 'FTX blew up, crypto is dead'. The fear is never some vague feeling, theres always a headline telling you this time its actually different. Thats the whole point of DCA imo, it doesnt require you to be brave on the scariest day.

Rube777

Lmao, btc tanked to 16k after the FTX collapse. What planet are you on

DankShibe

Ukraine war and FTX collapse

fan_of_hakiksexydays

People always talk about MSTR and STRC being a potential black swan event. But there's actually a lot of other crypto-heavy companies, plus sovereign funds, and crypto heavy funds. There's a lot more defi this time around, crypto lending, and crypto banking that could come under heavy strain. Along with a ton of projects, alt coins, stablecoins, etc... that are taking a huge brunt right now. And all these things aren't isolated in a vaccum. We could see a domino effect of multiple collapses. That's why I don't think this time around the bear market black swan is just gonna be limited to just 3 things like when we had the Luna, FTX, Voyager combo. We could have a much bigger combo this time.

IceSea192

SBF isn't just a bad apple; he is the inevitable result of centralized, custodial finance. The entire system is built on fractional reserve illusions. This is exactly why the only real exit protocol is aggressive self-custody. If it's not sitting on a physical hardware device that you control, it's just an IOU waiting to be evaporated by the next FTX. I did a deep-dive breakdown on how his architecture of fraud perfectly highlights the need for a decentralized baseline here: https://youtu.be/0zdSHvjHiss?is=OuW9STOzwE0fVlYR

Subject-Chest-8343

It also did in 2022, at the time of the FTX collapse. That's why it's so weird we're seeing it now, with no FTX and the stock market at ATH

Whole_Historian_7185

Fail?! are you kidding? mtGox and FTX didn't cause bitcoin to fail. In retrospect both events provided a great buying oppotunities IF ( and that's a big if) Strategy were to sell significant bitcion this crypto winter would be extended allowing people like to to aquire more sats for our money. Long live the winter. There will be another summer

TK_Eternal

Yes, it was way more fun when crypto firms like FTX, Three Arrows, Celsius, and Voyager tried their hand at banking and defi, lol.

ChangeHeroOfficial

FTX was a dark chapter for the industry, we stand firmly for transparency and accountability

thinktobreath

Let's basically clone Hawk Tuah, make a world liberty token scam like FTX, and promote the masses to legally predict (gamble) my next scam. 

tenor_tymir

BTC is too big and important to corporations. they’ll buy it all up in a heartbeat if it really went that low. As disastrous FTX was, all it did was create a very good buying opportunity and a massive bull run from 15k to 124k. I believe the harder BTC falls the higher the next top will be. I don’t think you’ll be able to 10x your money but 5x can still be possible if you manage to time the cycle low perfectly (provided there’s a black swan event like FTX).

fueltheburns

People are more likely to lose money by buying crypto. Bitcoiners on the other hand understand the value of self custody. Just look what happened to Mt Gox, BlockFi, Celsius, FTX, etc. Someday it may be Coinbase and I will be there to buy the cheap sats.

sideshowsito

When FTX crashed in Nov 2022 and it went to the next ATH ( oct 2025 ) …. it took 35 months . Just keep buying

Rare-Quantity5503

Never believe new twitter accounts like this. One made in 2022 and one in 2025. If you base sentiment on people larping, you’ll crash and burn pretty quickly. Also their points are personal. Nothing really to do with the market IMO. Luna and FTX were worse IMO - the sentiment was that the system had failed. Before that it was that we hadn’t made it, or that we didn’t reach the goal. But the FTX Luna situation was on of, we made it, we went really mainstream and then we fucked it up.

Educational_Cable405

Fear at 12 mostly means the people who bought the top are sweating. I set my buys to auto about a year ago so I'd stop refreshing this number, and it's honestly been the best thing for my sanity. Last time it sat sub 15 was around the FTX blowup, and that ended up being one of the better entries I got.

xarips

> Many of the big alts are dropping BELOW their low ranges of the 2022/2023 bear market, lower than even where they were after the collapse of FTX. they are all much lower than that and have been for ages

LayWhere

Also 2017 and agree completely. Luna/FTX scandals killed people appetite for alts, AI stealing the limelight for speculative greed and the whitehouse rugging $trumpcoin doesn't help either. The reason alt appetite didn't completely die in previous cycles was because the market was smaller and not in the mainstream eye, not at the scale of 2021 anyway. BTC is being killed by Saylor imo, with his infinite loop ponzinomics.

Friendly-Direction42

Got used to this at this point, also experienced LUNA FTX etc

AJSE2020

Past performance is not indictor for future results The the price could end up to 30k … Just immgine MSTR getting squeezed FTX collapse and luna collapsing Would look like a joke in comparison

ubermensch1001

What you are seeing right now is a very rare event in the crypto space. 2018 and 2022 do not really compare to this, I remember both. However, the COVID crash of March 2020 and I'd also say the 10/10 crash last year are more comparable. I saw earlier that the RSI on ETH was at historic lows, despite this it's actually still holding fairly strong right now above $1500. Other alts though are getting absolutely destroyed and many are BELOW their lows of the post FTX fallout, which is insane. This will eventually stabilize, but until then enjoy the show and consider accumulating here.

FKNLE63ND

Hardware wallet/ cold storage wallet. It’s a hardware device to store that holds the keys to your bitcoin but you’re in control. If the exchange you keep your btc goes bust (like FTX) your bitcoin goes with it. Check out Trezor , Blockstream Jade, Coldcard Q is the best imo but it’s a bit more advanced and not so beginner friendly. Depends on your skills tbh. Congrats again and good luck. And please make sure you don’t get scammed by emails from companies or something similar.

Excellent-Storm-5201

BTC sitting right around $60,750 and the 4-hour RSI is hitting extreme oversold levels at 15.4. Historically, the last time we saw readings this deeply oversold was during the capitulation phases of the FTX crash. While oversold conditions can certainly grind lower and stay extended if the daily ETF net outflows continue ($4.4B out in 13 days), historical data suggests these levels typically precede sharp, violent relief bounces due to shorts getting overcrowded. Key levels to watch right now: $60K acts as the major psychological and technical floor. A clean break below that opens the door straight to the $55K support cluster. On the flip side, any sudden reversal in ETF inflows could trigger a massive short squeeze given the current -22.8% OI drop and negative funding rates. Not financial advice, just watching the technicals and data points closely.

idontgiveafunyun

He might’ve meant 300W SMA. We briefly broke below it during the FTX crash. But the Covid crash hit right off it. That’s at about 55k right now I believe

Excellent-Storm-5201

BTC hitting $60,745 today with RSI at 15.4 — last time we saw readings this low was during the FTX crash. Historically these levels precede sharp relief bounces, but oversold can stay oversold while ETF outflows continue ($4.4B out in 13 days). Key levels to watch: $60K as major floor, break below opens $55K. On the flip side, any ETF inflow reversal could trigger a violent squeeze given the -22.8% OI drop and negative funding rate. Not financial advice, just watching the technicals closely.

saksit13429

Nah it's unlikely to drop 10k in a day unless there is catalyst event like FTX 2.0

ClearSnakewood

Saylor does not custody his coin, therefore he doesn’t own it (NYKNYC) Conbase does. And who knows what type of shady shit they’re doing with other people’s coin. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if fractional reserving it, just like FTX. And I think these ETF’s are shady players too. Self custody needs to be emphasized waaay more.

morerepsmoreproblems

You can tell who wasn’t here in 2022 when shit was really bad… the market nowadays offers able far more certainty than back then when Celsius and FTX went under it seems like everything was going to follow it recovered and broke new highs

ozera202

Every cycle has one major news at the final leg down to drop it low as it can , FTX , Mount GOX , Covid and now MSTR who was the biggest shill for btc now selling . I’m buying these fears , I have cash on the side 😈

gphie

I made my first small fortune in Bitcoin investing through the FTX collapse when people like YOU told me I was stupid for doing so. Go buy bonds if you're risk averse

A1JX52rentner

This only works if you can show the actual forced-selling mechanism. “BTC goes down, therefore MSTR must dump its Bitcoin” is not enough. Where is the margin call? Where is the covenant? Where is the redemption right that forces them to sell? MSTR is not FTX or Celsius. There are no depositors withdrawing coins. Most of the financing is long-dated equity/convertible/preferred capital. A falling BTC price can make the equity ugly, sure, but “ugly” is not the same thing as “automatic bankruptcy”. The bear case needs more than “empty box” rhetoric. It needs to explain the specific path from BTC drawdown → forced liquidation → insolvency. Otherwise you’re just saying “I don’t like the structure.”

Born-Public-3854

I have a youtube account that breaks down a bunch of finance crimes, heres the FTX video - [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU)

Born-Public-3854

I have a youtube account that breaks down a bunch of finance crimes, heres the FTX video - [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU)

Born-Public-3854

I have a youtube account that breaks down a bunch of finance crimes, heres the FTX video - [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU)

KiNg-MaK3R

I only bought one bitcoin when it was $3k. I bought more when it was $40k. I could have had 10x bigger of a stack than I have now. Still happy I understood bitcoin in time for the FTX crash though.

ozera202

Is MSTR going to be just like FTX …. If so shits going to get much worse . FML 🤦‍♂️

undeadkarlmarx

MSTR is in no way similar to FTX. It’s not holding other people’s coins; it can’t face a bank run scenario like FTX did, and either way there’s no real doubt that they actually have the 800k+ btc with coinbase. That said, it could be the GBTC of this cycle where the share price trades way below NAV for several months, so buying MSTR right now may not be the greatest idea, even if BTC itself is near bottom.

supper-dipper

My guy. Respect the conviction but you've got Luna/FTX PTSD and still going back in? That's either diamond balls or a gambling addiction lol. Jokes aside — no debt, no kids, simple life? That's literally the best position to take a swing. Worst case you're back to index funds. Best case you're retired early and annoying everyone at parties. Just don't go *so* balls deep you can't sleep when the next black swan hits. Because it will. It always does. Godspeed you beautiful degenerate.

Fair-Average5139

The next "FTX collapse" is probably Saylor and his "Strategy" going nuts

Tim-Rocket

>Last cycle we bottomed at around -33% from 200 WMA, I expect this cycle to, at least, revisit the 200 WMA. (Currently sitting at \~$58K) But, we've got to keep in mind, this time is actually different because of institutional players. But I do not know how this will play out. IMO there's 2 scenarios, on one hand we might not dump as much, because they (institutionals) are in it for a long term. On the other, we'd get a dump as we've never seen before, forget the Germany flash sale, forget FTX. If this happens we'll see what Buffet means with "blood on the streets". 200 WMA revisited. Alea jacta est. This summer seems to be readying up to be quite interesting. [Original comment.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1qjypcb/comment/o155aq1/) (Jan 22)

Simke11

This is nothing like FTX panic.

nachtraum

The panic looks like a bottom indicator. November 2022 was similar, Bitcoin went below 20k and people lost their sh*t. FTX just collapsed, people said we are done and it was sure it would go below 10k, said Saylor will be liquidated at 3k. But it went from there pretty much straight to over 120k. You never know, but panic selling is often one of the worst decisions. I will stack some more.

mypoopypencilhead

I completely agree. I’m as pure of a Bitcoin believer as possible but the reality is that the majority of retail and institutions are choosing to buy through the etf which allows banks to control how and when orders get executed. It seems the etf was pushed so hard by Blackrock etc for the same reasons Sam launched FTX, to control liquidity have a large pool to fill their shorts. A billion dollar inflow can have nearly no price impact now where before a billion dollars worth of spot buying would have an instant reaction. This dampens any upside while amplifying the downside. All of this is extremely concerning if we can’t figure out a way to fix it as Bitcoin no longer trades like a fixed supply asset. 

takinglifeslower

I get the comparison, but I’m a bit more cautious about mapping past crashes 1:1 onto current setups. In 2020 and post-FTX, the macro backdrop, liquidity, and sentiment shifts were pretty specific to those moments. Even if prices feel similar, the conditions driving them aren’t always the same. Could still be an opportunity zone, but it’s usually not as clean or “repeatable” as the COVID analogy makes it sounddd

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1tw8e2w/bitcoin_just_broke_a_trendline_that_has_held/ $1.35 billion in liquidations. 165 dormant wallets from 2011-2017 woke up last month and sold. The trendline that analysts have been watching for months finally gave way this week and it's worth being honest about what that means rather than either catastrophising or dismissing it. [BTC fell from just over $71,500 on June 1 to an intraday low of $65,362 on June 3. That's a 10% drop in under 72 hours.](https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-sinks-to-66346-as-1-35b-in-long-liquidations-accelerate-market-selloff/) The June 2 session alone saw $1.35 billion in liquidations, the largest single-day liquidation event of 2026. Long positions accounted for $767 million of that. Total crypto market cap dropped below $2.5 trillion for the first time since mid-April. The trendline that broke is the ascending log support that connects Bitcoin's major lows going back to 2012. It held through the 2018 bear market, through the 2020 COVID crash, through the 2022 FTX collapse. Every time BTC has broken below it historically it has entered a prolonged bear phase and every time it has recovered it has gone on to new highs. The last break below it was June 2022 when BTC was around $20K. The recovery from that took about eight months. The context around the break matters. Strategy's 32 BTC sale broke a four-year HODL streak and spooked the market more than the size of the sale warranted. ETFs have bled $2.43 billion in May alone, the worst monthly outflow of 2026. And on-chain data is flashing signals that have historically appeared near cycle lows, not at the start of them. CryptoQuant's MorenoDV specifically noted that his bottom indicator is approaching the zone that has marked every major BTC floor for over a decade, but isn't there yet. The other data point worth knowing: 165 previously dormant wallets moved 5,073 BTC in May. A wallet last active in August 2010 woke up and moved 20 BTC on May 31. A 2014 wallet moved 109 BTC on June 1. These are people who have been sitting on coins for 10-15 years finally taking profit. That's not manipulation or institutional rebalancing. That's the original believers cashing out into what they presumably think is a good enough price. Which is simultaneously a vote of confidence in Bitcoin's value journey and a source of real supply pressure. K33 Research is projecting lower volume and downward price drift through August. Canary Capital expects a 50-55% total peak-to-trough decline, which with BTC already down about 48% from $126K puts the low somewhere in the $60-65K range. Benjamin Cowen had October as his base case for the cycle bottom. None of that is guaranteed. But the trendline break is real and the historical context around it is not encouraging for the short term. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

CryptoDeepDive

Oh sweet sweet summer child. MSTR going belly upwould be orders of magnitude worse than FTX collapse. It's not even close

ClearSnakewood

This is why people need to withdraw their fucking coin from these ETF’s and exchanges into cold storage man. They’ll keep playing with us till we learn. The FTX style playbook is still alive. We need to organize an exchange run and run them dry. Or we’re forever fucked in these trading games.

Left_Entrepreneur918

Exactly, I caught the falling knife in 2022, big buys at 40k, 30k, 20k. Then yolo’d my inheritance the day after FTX crash. Now I just DCA

Knerd5

You’re making the assumption that wouldn’t have happened without the FTX collapse, which is impossible to know. In 2018 bitcoin held at $6k for like 6 months and still stabbed down to $4k in December. In both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets we ended up 25% or so under the 200wma so I think it’s wise to assume that will be approximately the case here too. Nobody can see the future but bitcoin is so cyclical used the past can be a helpful guide and since we’re already below it, it’s likely we keep drilling lower.

Subject-Chest-8343

Look at the chart though, the 2022 bottom would have been in well earlier if it wasn't for FTX. There could be a similar catalyst this year, but it's not guaranteed. The macro setup is different, stock market was down all of 2022, with tightening of the money supply. Now we have the stock market running wild and rates are expected to stay still. Things could play out a bit different. My base case is we stay above the 200wma. Which would mean bitcoin stays boring till year end, but the bottom's in.