FTX

azdcaz

People conveniently forget all the bs that BTC has survived in the past. Mt Gox was insane. FTX, Celsius, Voyager, Terra Luna etc etc all collapsing at once was pretty serious. Yet here we are watching BTC being woven into the fabric of modern financial markets. Even if MSTR has to sell a portion (ppl seem to think they can only sell 100% of their bitcoin), Bitcoin will be ok over time.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

For those still hopeful that $60K might have been the bottom, I hate to bring this up, but we still have the Microstrategy specter looming over the market. Some people still believe it won't be a black swan event like FTX, or not have any impact at all. Go look at how STRC works. STRC shows that the Strategy's BTC gamble is showing cracks during this bear market, to the point that Strategy is getting really desperate and throwing one last do or die gambit. But STRC is also already showing cracks right from the start.

MrBtotheTC

there’s no reason for it to drop anymore there’s no catalyst for it. The only reason we drop last time is because of FTX.

DemandNew8116

Interesting. Steel man argument is that the second 2021 bull run was paper bitcoin, basically unstable raising of the price with very little volume (unlike 2021) caused by FTX and other shenaningans and that ended spectacularily

Romanizer

I am looking at a change of momentum (MACD crossover on the weekly). In August 2022, the price momentum changed from downwards to sideways. Without the FTX crash, it would have stayed in the $20k area until the bull run began. Also consider that ATH of last cycle was in March 2024, just before the halving.

Abject-Stretch-1187

Exactly. Without FTX, we wouldn’t have smelled 16k BTC. For it to go lower this time, bears will have to tell us exactly what would cause it to go lower other than “patterns” They have no legitimate reason but charts. 

Romanizer

The last cycle's bear market ended in August 2022. We only had a crash afterwards due to FTX collapse. Bear markets get shorter with every cycle.

Nomadictionnn

Solid post and genuinely wish more people did this due diligence before throwing money on random platforms. I've been around since the Mt. Gox days and lost a good chunk on QuadrigaCX back in 2019, so yeah, the "it won't happen to me" mindset is exactly how it happens. I'd add one more thing to your checklist though operational track record under stress. Plenty of exchanges look great on paper with all the licenses and PoR, but when the market actually goes crazy (May 2021 flash crash, Luna, FTX week) their engines freeze, withdrawals slow to a crawl, or positions get liquidated at weird prices. I only really trust platforms that have been through multiple cycles without losing customer funds or pulling shady moves during volatility. The ones that have been running clean for 10+ years in this industry you can count on one hand honestly. Licensing is necessary but not sufficient imo. FTX had licenses too.

-irx

In a world where people uses common sense and have some idea of market cycles. Remember FTX collapse? That was massive buy signal and market bottom.

Revolutionary-Cup78

All are extremely unlikely, but thet are very real. Completely unexpected vulnerability (bitmain as an example), successful quantum attack, a new fork controversy, and the most likely I'll mention: 1) Simply not reaching the expected returns. It could be that 60k was already the bottom and that the price in 3 years is way below your target. 2) you forget your wallet credentials, your wallet credentials get stolen, or if using a custodian, having this custodian become insolvent FTX style

originalrocket

It's Celsius, FTX, Luna, and the rest all over again.

missourifats

I had the luxury of getting into bitcoin just BEFORE this happened. I had stacked up a decent little pile, and was digesting podcasts. I kept hearing about cold storage, but seed phrases? Lose it and youre toast? I put it off. Then FTX died. And I knew just enough to know that the main stream narrative of "See! Crypto and Bitcoin is all bullshit!" was preying on people's ignorance. So I wasn't shaken as I wasn't exposed to FTX. But I very suddenly had an eye opening real time experience to reinforce this idea. Not your keys. Not your coins. I now have 3 wallets.

harvested

40K is silly, not gonna happen. Bit I think price dropped below power law band at FTX low didn't it?

Mammoth-Birthday-437

46 days of negative funding is nuts. last time this happened post-FTX the snap back was brutal though, like a coiled spring. shorts get comfortable, open interest builds up, then one catalyst and it all unwinds fast. doesnt mean it happens tomorrow but the setup looks similar to late 2022 before the rally started

Romanizer

I would say maximum of 2 months. The last bear market ended in August 2022 with the MACD crossover. We would have gone sideways from there on out, if FTX did not implode afterwards. It just wouldn't fit the cycle narrative (together with some other points).

No-Masterpiece2246

FTX settlements paying out SOL right now so plenty of dumping. But generally bullish signs in the chart.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1sls2q5/bitcoin_funding_rates_have_been_negative_for_46/ This is the kind of data point that should stop you mid-scroll. Derivatives funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures have now been negative for 46 straight days. For the non-derivatives crowd: negative funding means short sellers are paying longs to keep their positions open. It's a direct measure of how many people are betting against the price continuing. When funding stays negative for this long, it means persistent, structural bearish positioning. Not a temporary dip in sentiment, but a sustained conviction among leveraged traders that the price is going lower. The last time funding was negative for this long? November-December 2022. Immediately after the FTX collapse. Which, if you remember, turned out to be the cycle bottom. BTC bottomed around $15,500 and went on to hit $126,000 by October 2025. The pattern is worth understanding. Extended negative funding doesn't just indicate bearish sentiment: it actively creates conditions for violent upward moves. Every short position in the market is a future forced buy. When the trigger comes, (a macro shift, a geopolitical development, a policy signal) all those shorts have to cover simultaneously, which amplifies any rally far beyond what spot demand alone would produce. This is exactly the mechanism behind the $600 million short liquidation event when the ceasefire was announced last week. BTC briefly touched $76,000 yesterday before pulling back to $74,000, unable to hold the breakout. The $75,000–$76,000 zone has dealers in deeply negative gamma, meaning their hedging flows will amplify whatever move comes next in either direction. Above $76K, the next meaningful resistance is $80,000–$80,600. None of this guarantees a recovery. The 46-day FTX comparison is one data point, not a playbook. The macro environment in late 2022 had a different texture: the rate hike cycle was approaching its peak, which gave the market something to look forward to. Right now the Fed is on hold with a 98% probability of no cut at either April or June meetings. That's a real difference. But the positioning data doesn't lie. [The market is loaded with shorts at a level historically associated with exhaustion rather than conviction. Someone has to be wrong.](https://news.bitcoin.com/goldman-sachs-files-for-bitcoin-premium-income-etf-with-covered-call-strategy/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

JeffreyDollarz

FTX 2.0.

BakingBreadBB2

So far it looks worse than FTX...

Suguha_chan

Unlikely. In 2022 it only crashed so far because of the FTX crash. Now in 2026 there is no FTX and btcs market cap is higher and volatility much lower

Suguha_chan

Without another FTX crash, no 40k

Suguha_chan

The big 16k crash was because of the FTX crash. Without that, it would probably have stayed much higher

MAGIGS

I did but then Blockfi was exposed to FTX, and now it’s in someone else’s wallet. Not my keys…

chufruity

And there’s even more shit of reputable billion dollar crypto exchanges establishing years ago just collapsing. FTX literally was a leading cause for the 2023 crypto crash, as it was the 2nd biggest crypto exchange in the US at a time. You hear stuff like that and then you still choose to trust coinbase for holding? Even so, just check the coinbase subreddit, there are countless people documenting how their bitcoin was indefinitely frozen from coinbase for absolutely no reason. COUNTLESS. A reputable exchange isn’t safe whatsoever, and if you think that is the case,you may need to study bitcoin again.

MathematicianKey6222

Behind FTX was no one . Behind Bitcoin ETFs are big banks. Big difference

ozera202

i have not seen crypto sentiment this bad, we are literally in the same trash group as NFTs. FTX / Luna / bear market crash had more engaged

RevenantHaunter13

Have you not paid any attention to history? Mt Gox? Celsius? Most recently, FTX? Everyone who trusts someone else woth their coins ultimately loses those coins. Be careful, be smart. Take self custody. Even starting with small quantities so you can get used to it and grow accustomed to owning your own coins, it will be worth it in the long run. Don't trust someone else. Don't trust me. DYOR.

__Ken_Adams__

FTX was reputable. Besides, your train of thought is only addressing an exchange being fraudulent, but coins can be lost in other ways. It doesn't matter how "reputable" an exchange is. They can be perfectly legitimate & still get hacked. It's happened to several "reputable" exchanges.

Sensitive-Mango3216

Been learning this lesson hard way with exchanges going down over the years. Started moving everything to hardware wallet after that whole FTX mess and sleep way better now knowing my keys are actually mine The amount of people who still keep everything in Coinbase or whatever exchange they first signed up with is crazy to me. Sure its convenient for trading but if you're hodling long term why risk it when hardware wallets are like 50 bucks now. Even set up some automation in my home setup to backup wallet info to different locations just in case Not your keys not your crypto is basically rule number one but somehow people still dont get it until something bad happens

Defiant_Ice_4860

Couple things: 1. the power law floor is one of the most robust findings in bitcoin statistics. It held during all the craziness during celsius, FTX, mount Gox and all the others. This is the margin where real adoption lives: more buyers than sellers. 2. Quantum is a potential hazard to old wallet types, not to the network, Satoshi's coins are the canary in the coal mine. Update old wallet types to newer ones and move on. 3. Adoption Saturation is an interesting moment: this is when the world is on a bitcoin standard and fiat denomination is irrelevant.

Competitive_Swan_755

LWFI is the new FTX.

cooltone

I'm with you, both in your belief of the power-law and in your skepticism - the best way to be. Here's a few things I discovered on my journey: - power-laws existed before bitcoin was invented. They have phenomenom that apply to all power-laws. - There are many examples of power-laws behaviour. - I believe there is only one power-law trajectory that applies to bitcoin - the Bitcoin Power-Law Trajectory (BPLT). - market environments, speculation and events may push up the price from its the BPLT, but eventually the price will relax back to the the BPLT. - the price above and below the BPLT is not symmetrical. It is easier to push the price above the BPLT, but much harder to push the price lower - see FTX impact. According to Santostasi and Perrenod the underlying mechanisms are 1) pervasion according to the rules of epidemic spreading and 2) valuation according to Metcalf's Law. These items are identifiable and measurable, this is where any change in the power-law can be identified. - The BPLT is ~ P(usd) = 10^-16.78 * t^5.69 P= price in USD t=days from genesis 3/01/2009 to today (see: Santostasi and Perrenod) I send this for everyone to scrutinize and improve/criticise, we are all in this together.

A1JX52rentner

FTX used at least $10 billion in stolen customer funds to prop up Alameda Research. Looks more like luna, but we always know after the crash :D

dino-delicious

Is this more similar to the FTX crash or the LUNA crash?

plebbtc

You are right about Binance and BNB. Is Binance using the BNB token to collateralize loans, like FTX did with FTT?

AdhesivenessCivil581

FTX repeat? The fun thing about crypto is that it's not systemic. Frauds happen, collapses happen, massive theft happens and the rest of us just need a nice big bowl of popcorn to get through it. Thanks bros for the entertainment.

plebbtc

The co-founder overlap between FTT and FTX is very similar. Then also add in they are both crypto related. Oh and also tokens, like FTT, are being used to take real value out of the system. Let's hope that Dolomite is run better than FTX.

Top_Performance_732

this is absolutely nothing like FTX except that they were both crypto related

plebbtc

FTX all over again.

LeanCrafterUK

Remember FTX also took big to fail lol . Don't ever say too big to fail again

Competitive_Swan_755

WLFI is the new FTX

KCConnor

That's a bit too low unless we get another FTX sized collapse. Strategy being forced to sell into the lows, Blackrock being proven to hold no actual BTC for their ETF (though that should actually drive price up rather than down but it's scandalous enough), something like that. I see a trend line from the October high to the January 14th high, descending through to October 2026. By the first week of June we should be in the $58K range. I expect summer flirtation with $60K on and off, then an August/September scare to $44K.

Discokruse

This is FTX token's downfall all over again. SBF tried to use FTT as collateral for loans and the brand counters at LedgerX called them out. The cards came crashing down within 90 days.

unknowngloomth

I'm not recommending any kind of investment. You absolute 🤡. Yeah, I'm aware of FTX collapse. So what? That's the risk I'm willing to stomach it. Who said I don't trust the project? I trust HYPE. The team literally didn't sell a single coin. It's all on-chain. Even Arthur Hayes who held and had dumped HYPE watched the team literally not selling their coins. He bought back and became bullish. HYPE tokenomics is deflationary. They use the trading fees to buybacks and burn. Everything happens in real time which you can check by yourself checking on-chain data. Am I saying that hype will be the next BTC? No, fuck that. Am I saying that HYPE is a sure thing? No, fuck that. In crypto everything is uncertain. But yeah, I believe that HYPE has the potential to dwarf SOL and compete with BNB, XRP and ETH. Am I recommending you to buy HYPE? No, screw you. You don't have the balls to go all in on ETH the wager you believe and that's why you're posting here wondering to strangers. Nobody knows shit about fuck in this space 🤡

pythonhulk89

Not a fan of two exchange founders fighting. Last time this happened was FTX times... And that sucked for everyone

AdPrevious5886

Well, nobody looked like wanting reassurance in any of these opinions, unlike you. ETH foundation sold like it did many other times, and they explained it every other single time, they sold to have liquidity and keep improving the ecosystem, not having to rely in outter investments, which looks pretty intelligent to me. They working on the project with their own money, not with other peoples money, but also for other peoples money. If you think a crypto asset is just reliable for having a Dex, wait until you learn more about Mt. Gox and FTX. Its worth it for you because you see a huge oportunity to get rich, not because you trust in the project. I really hope it works out good for you. If you're trying to get people convinced, you should change your speech. Also, saying to other people that you would invest better in HYPE than ETH and then saying you dont recommend any kind of investment, looks like pure hypocresy to me. And again, you are you, and me are me, and i dont mind about the risk at all if i know where and how im putting my money on, because if i wanted low risk, i would let inflation slowly eat my money in the bank like ive been doing last 5 years. But im definitely getting my money eaten by inflation than investing it on HYPE, thats for sure. But yeah im the one 🤡

Infinite_Airline7705

FTX had a better UX than any hardware wallet. The people who stayed because it was easier lost everything overnight.

DemandNew8116

conditions are wildly different. this bear market is pretty organic trading, whereas 2022 bear market was a speculative and paper bitcoin implosion with FTX liquidation being the final nail in the coffin dragging bitcoin to 16k briefly.

ReplacementFormer861

Exactly right and this is the most underrated part of the current cycle. The 2022 bear market had a body count. Terra, Celsius, Voyager, FTX, BlockFi all gone within months of each other. The contagion was structural. This drawdown has no equivalent. No major exchange has failed. No stablecoin has depegged catastrophically. No celebrity CEO is in handcuffs. The bear case now is purely macro. Iran, oil, rates. Those are external headwinds not internal rot. When the macro clears the infrastructure is still intact. That is a completely different recovery setup than 2022 where you had to rebuild trust from scratch. The one risk worth watching is whether the miner AI pivot creates structural pressure on hash rate. If the companies securing the network keep selling BTC to fund data centers that is internal damage accumulating quietly.

hasin76698

never heard of them tbh. probably another FTX waiting to happen. be careful op, don't leave your stack on there.

Not_a_Ghost_0

8k on FTX? rookie numbers man. i had 2.5 eth stuck in celsius and another $5k in blockfi. 2022 aged me a solid decade tbh.

GrouchyAppointment85

8k on FTX? rookie numbers man. i had 2.5 eth stuck in celsius and another $5k in blockfi. 2022 aged me a solid decade tbh.

Asleep-Character-567

8k on FTX? rookie numbers man. i had 2.5 eth stuck in celsius and another $5k in blockfi. 2022 aged me a solid decade tbh.

Low_Carpet9764

I agree with 54k being possible and good target, especially if war continues which it looks like it will; I am DCAing regardless with lump sums on side for those figures. Also while FTX was “contained” well it ravaged sentiment at all levels which is part of why the bear went all the way to 300 WMA which was my point. Dollar supremacy is in question with other countries trading with Yuan/gold conversions but I wouldn’t say it’s that much more uncertain than 2022 outside of the private credit situation.. WW3 talk was everywhere in 2022. Private credit imploding is very plausible though but all negative short term events have the same end result: massive stimulus in which BTC performs well.. I’ve also theorized in this upcoming stock crash bitcoin completely detaches from software correlation and absorbs some of the stock market (alongside other commodities). In your view what are odds that happens? Since you clearly follow BTC you are aware it is not a software stock and really shouldn’t correlate with it but does anyway. I’m not sure if this upcoming cycle will be when it happens but it WILL happen eventually once the masses figure out what it is and faith in dollar/traditional equities collapses.. factor in BTC front running stock crash and this idea becomes even more likely due to asymmetric returns.

Saffuran

1) My numbers are just literal factual breakdowns of prior cycles -- periods of weakness can be expressed in periods of time as well as in currency denominations, so I prefer to show both. 2) My main average bottom number is around $54,000 but I am more than open to BTC/Crypto going lower because it can, and because the macroeconomic picture outside of crypto is very bad right now. Things are - in general - much more uncertain and therefore higher risk right now than was the case during the late-2022/early-2023 bottom when the broader market was through the worst of COVID and more elements of the global economy were more stable. 3) As an extension of macroeconomics looking bad right now (BRENT oil spot price at $140 and rising, we likely see a price that is 20-25% higher before it peaks and high oil prices effect on the markets are slightly delayed and tend to drag on for months even after some normalization) -- there is a lot of evidence that Private Credit entities (Blue Owl, Apollo, Blackstone, Ares e.t.c.) are greatly overextended and any pullback in the credit markets are felt to a greater extend further down the risk curve. The combined effect of high oil and credit risk has greater potential to pull markets an extra leg down than FTX [which was fairly contained] was able to.

leonm0161

Not your keys, not your coins. If your crypto is not on a wallet, where you are the only one who is aware of the seed phrase, you are trusting the entity who also has access to the seed phrase. In the case of FTX (go watch a documentary on YouTube about the FTX Crash), this trust was betrayed. Buy a cold wallet

Romanizer

Very good work. Just keep one thing in mind: when the Bitcoin power law was first published by Giovanni Santostasi (I think he also is active here on Reddit), there only was the linear regression line which Bitcoin fluctuates around. The fair price, bottom and top line are multiplicators of this line. They have been changed at least once. One time that I can remember is the FTX collapse leading to the 2022 bottom. The growth presented here is valid as long as the power law holds (and it still does since beginning), but I wouldn't count on any lows and highs as being a hard limit. In positive news, the current low point ($56k) may be a bit pessimistic because it was directly influenced by 2 major systemic failures (Celsius and FTX), where we haven't seen anything comparable this time around. It all points to the bottom being in and that we are in the perfect time frame for accumulation.

airfix13

I’ve found myself in the same situation, honestly this shit and FTX it’s enough to make me give up. I’ve resigned myself to the fact I’m not going to get my money. Did you have any joy?

KiNg-MaK3R

I thought it was stupid in 2017 I saw it hit $15k or whatever and really learned about it. I didn’t buy several bitcoin until I got a huge bonus at work and it happened to happen around the FTX implosion. Bought in the $15k range and thought I was an idiot for a while. Turned out Ok.

ElRiesgoSiempre_Vive

The customers of Mt Gox, FTX, Celsius and Quadriga are not "most people." I was a customer of Gox. It was a very, very small percentage of people overall.

Subject-Chest-8343

I think that guy is wrong. 2022 is the only one time it went below the previous ATH at all. Not only this, but if you look closer, it only went below at the time of the FTX collapse, which was coincidentally at the end of a very bad year for most markets. And, on top of that, BTC went down to 16k, but in the previous cycle, it only stayed above 16k for a couple days. So yeah, I would be weary of using the word "historically" when you only have one, very questionable data point.

Fickle_Actuator_5145

Sure thing! Self-custody just means YOU hold your own Bitcoin instead of leaving it on an exchange like Coinbase or Kraken. Think of it like this: when your BTC is on an exchange, it's like keeping your money in someone else's safe. They give you an IOU. If they go bankrupt (like FTX did), your money might disappear. Self-custody means you move your BTC to a wallet where only YOU have the private keys (basically a long secret password that proves the Bitcoin is yours). Two main types: 1. Software wallet (free, on your phone) - apps like BlueWallet or Sparrow. Good for smaller amounts. Think of it like a wallet in your pocket. 2. Hardware wallet ($60-150) - physical devices like Trezor or Coldcard. Your keys are stored on the device and never touch the internet. Think of it like a personal safe. Best for larger amounts. The process: buy BTC on an exchange, then send it to your own wallet address. The exchange no longer has it. You do. The tradeoff: you're now responsible for keeping your private keys (or "seed phrase" - 12-24 words) safe. Lose those words, lose your Bitcoin forever. No customer service to call. But nobody can freeze your account or steal your funds either. For a beginner I'd say: start with a software wallet like BlueWallet to learn how it works with a small amount. Once you're comfortable (and your stack grows), upgrade to a hardware wallet.

Fickle_Actuator_5145

Honest answer that isn't just "HODL" or "buy the dip": Before you touch Bitcoin or any investment, do these first: 1. Pay off any high-interest debt (credit cards, personal loans above 8%). No investment consistently beats 20%+ interest rates on credit card debt. 2. Build 3-6 months of expenses in a high-yield savings account or stablecoins earning yield. This is your "sleep at night" money. 3. Only invest what's left. If you have no debt and already have an emergency fund, great, all 25k can go to investments. Now for the actual investing part with whatever's left: Don't put it all in at once. BTC is sitting below 67k right now after a meaningful pullback. Nobody knows if this is the bottom or if we go lower. Dollar-cost average over 3-6 months. Put in a set amount every week or every two weeks. Split between Bitcoin and a broad index fund (S&P 500 ETF like VOO). Bitcoin is high conviction for a lot of people here, and I get it, but diversification isn't a dirty word. Something like 60-70% BTC, 30-40% index funds gives you crypto upside with less volatility. Self-custody at least some of your BTC. Hardware wallet (Coldcard, Trezor, etc). Not your keys, not your coins isn't just a meme after what happened with FTX. Most importantly: have a plan and write it down. What's your time horizon? Are you holding for 5+ years? Are you going to panic sell at the first 30% drop? Be honest with yourself before the emotions kick in.

cooltone

I agree. I can only speak about the FTX melt down. The price was at the bottom for 5 months before the price fell another 25%, but it didn't last that long. There was a feeding frenzy and the price recovered in ~ 8 weeks. We have been at $67.5k ± 2.5k for two months, so it could be another 3 months if anything were to happen, but it would take an FTX level event - if it does they can bunk up with SBF.

user_name_checks_out

Tell that to the customers of Mt Gox, and FTX, and Celsius, and Quadriga, etc. etc. etc. The "benefit of the asset class" is that it is trustless.

Green-Experience420

ya they just want to scam the world with stable coins like FTX. We just want bitcoin to be a recognized commodity

HeyYes7776

Just pay the god damn bribe already like the other Crypto Criminals. I’m so tired of these assholes. Fucking Blockfills just did an FTX… this was weeks back…. Why - because these idiots see crime pays and don’t care about the bag left for the rest of us.

TokenPulsar

958 out of 959 periods profitable is actually insane when you say it out loud. the one losing window was buying the literal top of 2017 and selling during FTX. like you had to be maximally unlucky twice in a row to lose.

Aggravating_Fold1154

Nah it's not all deregulation, he actually added more regulation like requiring stablecoins to be pegged to the dollar. He just did what he did to appeal to the right crowds and get elected. You say he enabled people to openly scam and defraud people but that shit has been happening way before Trump got elected (FTX, Terra Luna, Celcius, etc...). The re-regulations are a net positive in this shit show imo

InvestAISavvy

Different setup than 2022 in a few important ways. In 2022, the crash was driven by internal crypto contagion — Luna, 3AC, Celsius, then FTX. Each domino made the next one fall, and trust in the entire ecosystem collapsed. Stocks recovered first because crypto had its own structural problems to work through beyond just macro. This time the pressure is mostly external — Iran, oil above $100, stagflation fears, the $14B options expiry on Deribit yesterday. Crypto doesn't have a contagion event happening. Fear & Greed just hit 12, which is the lowest reading since October 2023, but the social data tells a different story. I track engagement volume across platforms and BTC social attention is actually *climbing* while price drops. That kind of divergence — more eyeballs, rising panic, falling price — has historically shown up near capitulation bottoms, not the start of extended drawdowns. The other piece worth watching: institutional infrastructure is still being built during this fear cycle. Morgan Stanley is prepping a Bitcoin ETF at 0.14% fees, undercutting BlackRock. ETH ETFs have had six straight days of outflows, but that's positioning, not abandonment. Institutions don't build low-fee products for assets they think are going to zero. The stock market has its own headwinds right now — oil is squeezing margins, the Dow just entered correction territory, and the VIX is above 30. If the Iran situation drags out, stocks could stay pressured longer than crypto because corporate earnings take a direct hit from energy costs. Bitcoin doesn't have an earnings report to miss. No crystal ball, but the setup feels more like BTC leads the recovery this time rather than lags it.

ThreeTonChonker

Wars, market manipulation, Jane Street, etc. None of it BTC’s fault. None of the problems are even crypto related like past bear markets (FTX for example). Feels like a planned accumulation phase by market makers who are probably currently dumping their positions in gold. Here’s what makes sense to me: if I was a market maker and see BTC as the ultimate long term asset, I want to shake loose anyone on the fence before the price makes fence sitters rich enough to have an opinion. Wouldn’t be surprised if a switch is flipped with the SAVE act, new fed chair, Iran war ends when the US pulls out and Trump declares victory, maybe these FUD bots disappear off social media, and a few major players add BTC to their payment options. The infrastructure has slowly been added to platforms like PayPal with crypto on and off ramps to make this the quickest bear rugpull of all time. Unfortunately this is out of the hands of retail but retail has proven to be the most cowardly holders so it’s no surprise.

Fuzzyfoot12345

I felt this way when bitcoin was 15k during the FTX SBF fiasco. I'm 50-50 on bitcoin moving forward, seems to double every 5 years now, will be really telling on the longterm when the next bull run hits.

RUYYRUYY

I don't think it makes sense to EVER give up custody of your Bitcoin other than selling it. Over and over and over again for the entire history of Bitcoin, what was considered a trusted custodians of Bitcoin has stolen or lost the Bitcoin serves they were trusted with. Mt Gox, QuadrigaCX, FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Genesis, Voyager Digital, etc

TheresNoSecondBest

Shitcoin casinos will always try to distract the noobs. It's their business model. Anyone running an ad for the most centralized scam out there (r/ripplescam), deserves the same fate of FTX in 2022.

LinusVPelt

It's an example of real adoption. Adoption is always in weaker economies first, they are the ones most needing it. Exchanges do not really reflect the utility of the assets, because their business is based on trading and other services. He talks about Gemini because he cannot talk about Binance or Tether - which would represent more systemic risk - but even their crisis won't really represent a fault in the value of the decentralized assets, like it didn't with FTX and other big platforms collapses.

Xennenial

This really isn't a risk at this point if you are using a Tier 1 exchange based out of a less corrupt 1st world nation. For instance, Coinbase is based in the US, and is subject to jurisdiction accordingly, furthermore it is a publicly traded company and will face the consequences of crashing stock prices if they do something that shady. Telling me I should be weary of Coinbase in 2026 because of what happenned with FTX years ago is like telling me it's not safe to go out at night in Tokyo because Rio de Janeiro once had the highest murder per Capita in the world.

cqm

That and its different people, FTX was 3 nearly 4 years ago

FixNo5178

Too real. FTX taught these people nothing lol

leonm0161

So first off, let me answer your question specifically focussing in Scalable Capital as I have been using it myself for years now with 50k+ Investments: When Searching for "Bitcoin" click on "Kaufen". It will then give you 4 options to choose from: - CoinShares Physical Bitcoin - Bitwise Physical Bitcoin - Invesco Physical Bitcoin - 21Shares Bitcoin ETP BEFORE choosing one, you can click on "Crypto ETPs vergleichen". It will show you the costs per year (TER) and if it's free of tax after one year/Einkommenssteuerpflichtig before one year (langfristig) or if capital gains tax is applied/Kapitalertragsteuer+Soli+Kirchensteuer (kurzfristig) Now there are multiple reasons why I heavily advise against buying bitcoin via Scalable: 1. High spread / worse price (big difference) 2. The TER is high & is a permanent cost 3. You cannot send any coins as they are custodial. If the company holding your coins was to act evil (check our FTX crash) you lose everything. NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR COINS 4. Scalable is focussed on stocks & ETFs, their crypto offer generally is just a nice-to-have service Instead, I recommend creating a savings plan on Coinfinity which I use to buy bitcoins myself. The advantages: 1. No spread 2. Transparent costs (scalable earns most of the money through the worse spread if gives you) 3. They don't try to play with your emotions with displaying no chart to avoid repeated buying/selling out of greed or fear (Hin- und Her macht Taschen leer!) 4. You create your own hot wallet within the app (carefully write down all 24 words on paper if you do) 5. You can automatically invest by setting up a Dauerauftrag & can even make them send your coins to your personal cold wallet automatically or just buy anytime. 6. You support a German company which focuses exclusively on Bitcoin. That way you support other bitcoin holders which will also contribute to a higher Bitcoin price Now if you found this comment useful, feel free to use my personal referral code for Coinfinity: BR6PC2QK This will not only reduce your fees for 6 months but also 21% of your fees which would usually go to Coinfinity go to me instead. With this referral I am obviously biased, so please do your own research. In the Bitcoin community we say (Don't trust, verify!)

HopeHour9304

Yeah the whole salary-on-exchange thing is wild to me too. I've seen way too many people get rekt when exchanges suddenly decide your account needs "additional verification" right when you need to pay rent For bills I just keep like 2 weeks worth on the exchange max and move everything else to hardware wallet. When I need fiat I'll send back what I need and convert it. Takes maybe 10 minutes and saves you from potentially losing everything to the next FTX situation

Aket-ten

For others that may have missed the reference here > FTX's former ~8% stake in AI startup Anthropic is now estimated to be worth over $30 billion based on a February 2026 valuation, representing a massive 60x return on the original $500 million investment. FTX bankruptcy lawyers sold this stake for roughly $1.3 billion in 2024 to repay creditors, missing out on over $28 billion in, potential, upside

mrjune2040

There is no trust-less way to borrow crypto. Nexo is a centralised party (and being private has extremely opaque financials) and so you expose yourself to partial or complete loss of funds should they go into administration, and/or also liability of clawback for the loan amount taken out. This is no different to FTX, Celsius or the countless other 'too big to fail' centralised players that have existed and that have provided lending services.

user_name_checks_out

The more time passes, the less imminent it seems to me that bitcoin will hit $1MM. Going into the 2021 bull run, I was sure that we would hit $100K in 2021 and $1MM in 2025. When we failed to hit $100K, I attributed it to the fact that FTX absorbed millions of dollars that would otherwise have gone into bitcoin. Then in $2025 we only made it to $126K, way less than I expected. So I have adjusted my expectations. 10xing from here now seems a long way off.

ubermensch1001

Exactly. Look back to right after the collapse of FTX and just 15 months later they were launching the Bitcoin ETFs and we were hitting a new all time high. Imagine what's going to take place by the next halving of 2028.

Fuzzyfoot12345

I check out this sub from time to time, I very rarely post on reddit anymore. The last several weeks I have found myself being impressed by the floor, and it's resistance to absolutely crashing and burning in a panic sell. I was expecting something along the lines of the pull back during the FTX fried chicken man, but if this is as bad as it gets as a floor, that is pretty bullish imo. (Still bummed the recent bull run didn't reach higher though).

LatinumGirlOnRisa

yes, even 'the real' Nexo is/waa shady, imho. and no idea if it's really the same 'real' Nexo that has suddenly had a new campaign again appearing in Brave browser ads but after all of the troubles Nexo had before + that Celsius & FTX & too many other crypto platforms had I wouldn't trust a supposedly legitimate Nexo either. I say yes, onboarding into crypto can be a challenge to do without first starting out using a bank & centralized cryptocurrency platforms but it's definitely worth learning how to make use of decentralized and peer-to-peer &/or no KYC platforms, too in order to be able to minimize the use of centralized business entities.

Calm-Professional103

Bitcoin « dies » every time the price drops. Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience despite being tested multiple times by some really disastrous events: Quadriga, Mt. Gox, FTX, weekly Trump tantrums. It is still under-reported in the financial press unless its associated with a negative event. I don’t think any asset has attracted so much hate. It’s very survival is a middle finger in the face of the tradfi establishment that has tried so hard to destroy it.  

Calm_Situation_1131

Yes, this poisons the well for the future. Which is why I think it will be revisited after the next FTX, LUNA, etc., implodes people's life savings again.

Ok-Vegetable-8900

That’s a brutal lesson, but probably one of the most valuable ones in crypto. Mine is similar — not taking counterparty risk seriously until something breaks. Everyone chases yield when things are calm, and only prices in risk after the damage is done. Celsius, FTX… same pattern. “Safe” until suddenly it isn’t. I think a lot of people underestimate how asymmetric that risk is. You might earn a few extra %… but you can lose everything. These days I keep most in cold storage and only move what I need for trading. And even then, I care way more about execution + withdrawal reliability than fancy yields. Took me a while to get there, but yeah — security > everything.

KCConnor

Dude, you're off your rocker. Ignoring 2010 to 2013 (since it's manic and not going to repeat without extraordinary circumstances) and using 2014+ data, BTC has a descending CAGR each year. And it ain't 1000%. Nor is it 90%. For an investment made in January of 2014, your CAGR per year is as follows: 2014: 58% 2015: 24% 2016: 8% 2017: 107% 2018: 38% 2019: 46% 2020: 68% 2021: 67% 2022: 41% 2023: 50% 2024: 55% 2025: 49% That's CAGR based on a 2014 investment. CAGR for an investment made in 2018: 2018: 74% 2019: 29% 2020: 27% 2021: 35% 2022: 3% (that FTX collapse sets you behind the Strike 10% interest rate of your BTC loan) 2023: 20% 2024: 31% 2025: 25% Way lower returns. CAGR for an investment made in 2022?: 2022: -64% (ouch, this might get your collateral liquidated on Strike) 2023: -4% (ouch, this will set you back hard on a BTC loan) 2024: 26% 2025: 17% You're barely 7% ahead of the 10% interest at Strike. Not worth the risk. And I have now shown that Strike's presentation of 30% CAGR is ingenuine at best, for new investors. And BTC's CAGR is in a descending trend. And this clearly shows that BTC CAGR is decreasing for new investment. Expect CAGR to drop to the 30's by next cycle. But that's still averaged, with some years being "bullish" like 2025 that still gave you a -8% for BTC's value between yearly open and close.

giYRW18voCJ0dYPfz21V

I still don't understand what was going in his head. FTX was one of the main exchanges, he would have easily being ultra-rich just from fees and other legit gains.

Realistic_Image_480

Dfinity's Internet computer protocol (icp) it was made to look like a rub on purpose but FTX's futures market the day before pumped to 750$ before actual listing then other exchanges for some reason listed it at 750$ then it crashed. Now they used that narrative for the past 5 years to keep people from investing in it and will move forward now that they have scammed the rest of the crypto dudes with other poo coins

Calm_Situation_1131

None of this is legally binding and will be reversed by later administrations because it allows for unchecked securities fraud. I expect this to happen after retail loses even more money with the next wave of exit liquidity tokens, ponzi schemes, and other scams that make LUNA, FTX token, etc. look like pocket change. This SEC interpetive release is bad policy and the Howey test is still good law after 100 years for a reason. Everyone cheering this doesn't understand that this SEC's direction is a step back because it makes the crypto space even more grifty and subsequently siloed from the legacy finance. The crypto industry was in a good spot with sensible, incremental wins against the last SEC. This total takeover is greedy and self defeating. What do you think will happen when people's retirement funds blow up with the next scam? Crypto goes back into the hole because everyone thinks it's a scam.

manbearbullll

Don’t think anyone ever accused him of being an idiot. It’s the fact that he was using people’s money as his own personal bank with no intention being able to pay back his users in the event they wanted their money. These investments weren’t doing as hot back then and when people liquidated their FTX funds, they had no choice but to sell. Imagine the shit Dimon would receive if you suddenly couldn’t access your US dollars and JPMC just said “you have to wait several years for our investments to have some return.” Crypto supporters would have a field day.

Crimson_Bishop

There was enough recovered to pay everyoneback the USD value of their assets at the time of bankrupcty, not at the time of getting paid back. They sold what was left at FTX at a higher value and gave people back at the crypto bottom when they bankrupted. BTC was at $17k when they went bankrupt (Nov '22). BTC was at \~$65k when they payback was approved (Oct '24). If you were hoping to get your crypto assets back, you only got 25% back. But you did get your USD equivalent just without the 2 years of gains.

genotype0x

CZ should’ve bought FTX then

choppyish

FTX collapse and bitcoin ETF. There’s a new ATH

magus-21

It went down because sentiment changed. If not FTX then something else would have done it, and by just as much. That's how bubbles work. The 4 year cycle isn't because of anything special to Bitcoin like the halving. The 4 year cycle is because that's how long it takes for sentiment to change back and for people to think, "What happened two years ago? I don't remember. YOLO, BABY!" Then it's one year of pumping, another year of dumping, and two more years of developing selective forgetfulness about crypto.

Coininator

It went down so much because of the CEX collapse. Remember FTX?

Subject-Chest-8343

I think the 2022 bottom happened when it did, because of the FTX collapse, that came after the TerraUSD collapse, and all of 2022 was a down year for the stock market, and there were huge layoffs in tech. Saying the bottom HAS to be in october 2026 is essentially saying ''my crystal ball told me that the Nasdaq will be on a downtrend all year, Tether will collapse next week, and then Coinbase in october''. I mean, it could be different but similar outcomes, e.g. the AI bubble pops and we get a huge recession. Point is, big moves in the price of bitcoin tend to correlate with big events, and we can't predict that some sort of major event will happen in october.