FTX

choppyish

FTX collapse and bitcoin ETF. There’s a new ATH

magus-21

It went down because sentiment changed. If not FTX then something else would have done it, and by just as much. That's how bubbles work. The 4 year cycle isn't because of anything special to Bitcoin like the halving. The 4 year cycle is because that's how long it takes for sentiment to change back and for people to think, "What happened two years ago? I don't remember. YOLO, BABY!" Then it's one year of pumping, another year of dumping, and two more years of developing selective forgetfulness about crypto.

Coininator

It went down so much because of the CEX collapse. Remember FTX?

Subject-Chest-8343

I think the 2022 bottom happened when it did, because of the FTX collapse, that came after the TerraUSD collapse, and all of 2022 was a down year for the stock market, and there were huge layoffs in tech. Saying the bottom HAS to be in october 2026 is essentially saying ''my crystal ball told me that the Nasdaq will be on a downtrend all year, Tether will collapse next week, and then Coinbase in october''. I mean, it could be different but similar outcomes, e.g. the AI bubble pops and we get a huge recession. Point is, big moves in the price of bitcoin tend to correlate with big events, and we can't predict that some sort of major event will happen in october.

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Post is by: Mouflon77 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/SuperteamUK/comments/1rvafai/happy_6th_birthday_solana/ **Today, March 16, 2026, marks exactly six years since the creation of Solana’s genesis block.** Looking back at 2020, the timing of the launch seemed almost impossible as the world was entering COVID-19 lockdowns and markets were reacting. Yet, what began as a whitepaper by Anatoly Yakovenko proposing Proof of History (PoH) has evolved into one of the most resilient and active ecosystems in blockchain history. **The Journey: Six Years of Milestones** * **2020 (The Genesis):** Mainnet Beta launches on March 16 with SOL trading at roughly $0.50. * **2021 (The Breakout):** Solana explodes into the mainstream. The NFT boom (Degenerate Ape Academy) and "Solymer Summer" send SOL to a peak of $260. * **2022 (The Reckoning):** The network survives its "darkest year," weathering the Wormhole exploit and the FTX collapse. Many wrote the network's obituary when SOL fell below $10, but the developers stayed and kept building. * **2023–2024 (The Recovery):** Solana stages a "phoenix-like" comeback with major partnerships like Visa for stablecoin settlement and Google Cloud running a validator. * **2025 (The Institutional Era):** Solana hits a new all-time high of 1 billion in net inflows within just six weeks. * **2026 (The Present):** Today, Solana handles 148 million non-vote transactions daily which is a staggering 148x increase since its first year. Key Performance & Infrastructure Wins * Firedancer is Live: The long-awaited independent validator client from Jump Crypto launched on mainnet in December 2025, bringing critical client diversity and the potential for 1M+ TPS. * Network Stability: As of late 2025, Solana had achieved a historic streak of 662+ consecutive days without a network outage, proving that the infrastructure has matured significantly since the turbulence of 2021–2022. * Real-World Assets (RWA): Major institutions are no longer just "testing" Solana. Galaxy Digital tokenized its Nasdaq-listed stock on-chain, and Figure filed with the SEC to natively issue equity on Solana. * Mobile Revolution: Following the sell-out of the Saga, over 150,000 people have pre-ordered the Solana Seeker, shipping mid-2025/2026 **What’s Next?** The **Alpenglow consensus upgrade** is expected soon (Q1 2026), targeting **150ms finality** approaching the speed of traditional web services. Six years in, Solana is no longer just "the Ethereum Killer" it has carved out its own identity as the premier **consumer layer** for high-frequency DeFi, gaming, and global payments. **Cheers to the Solana community and everyone who built through the bear markets!** We in London will be celebrating in the heart of London with Solana's 6th Birthday Party! I believe waitlist is full but can put your name in in case they open some spots: [https://luma.com/Solana6thBday?tk=XQUihS](https://luma.com/Solana6thBday?tk=XQUihS) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

snek-jazz

MSTR is up more than 10x from the FTX fall out low, bitcoin is not. Why is that?

snek-jazz

MSTR mNAV is low now, but share price is 10 times higher than the FTX fallout bottom. Bitcoin is not 10 times higher than it was then. MSTR from then until now was a better return, even though mNAV is not currently high.

C_B_Doyle

Bitcoin’s price is driven by liquidity and sentiment not cash flow so when volume dries up and bids are pulled the market thins out and price can drop sharply because there are no built in buyers like earnings driven funds buybacks or institutions required to step in. Its adoption has been fueled by narratives and capital inflows rather than everyday usefulness since it remains volatile taxed slow for payments and dependent on layers custodians and intermediaries that add complexity and risk. With no earnings assets or yield there is no valuation anchor so demand exists only as long as belief does and when that belief weakens buyers disappear leaving nothing to prevent large rapid drawdowns. # Why Bitcoin Could Crash Hard **It's Just a Belief** Bitcoin doesn't produce anything. No earnings, no income, nothing. The only thing keeping the price up is people thinking someone else will pay more later. The moment that stops, you've got nothing to fall back on. **Too Few People Actually Own It** Most Bitcoin sits in whale wallets or gets locked up. The amount that actually trades every day is tiny. So when someone big wants to sell, there's barely anyone there to buy. Price moves hard and fast in either direction. **It Never Actually Became Money** Bitcoin was supposed to replace your credit card. It didn't. It's slow, expensive, you get taxed on it, and it swings 10% in a day. Even the big retailers that used to take it—Microsoft, Dell, Overstock—they all stopped. There's no real adoption here, just speculation. **Nothing Catches a Falling Knife** When a stock crashes, the company buys back shares. When a crypto crashes, nothing happens. There's no safety net. It just keeps falling until it finds a bottom nobody knows. **Everything's Held Together With Tape** The whole thing depends on exchanges that have blown up (FTX, Genesis), stablecoins that might not be backed, custodians that could disappear tomorrow. If any of those break, the whole trading infrastructure seizes up and price plummets. **Leverage Makes Everything Worse** Most of the "trading" is actually bets on bets—futures contracts, leveraged positions. When price drops, all those positions get forced to close at once. That forces even more selling. It spirals. **The Story Keeps Changing** First it was the future of money. Then digital gold. Then institutions were going to make it real. Then ETFs would save it. Every time the old story falls apart, they invent a new one. That's not investing, that's chasing narratives. **Gold Actually Works** Gold has central banks holding it, jewelry makers using it, thousands of years of being valuable. Bitcoin has people agreeing it's cool. One's real, one's not. **How It Could Fall Apart** A whale tries to cash out → the order book can't handle it → price drops 10% → panic sets in → people start dumping → the exchange or stablecoin infrastructure cracks under the pressure → derivatives blow up as positions liquidate → miners who can't make money anymore start selling → it just keeps going down. There's nothing to stop it once it starts. **The Real Risk** Bitcoin doesn't have a floor. It's just whatever the last bid was. When belief evaporates and liquidity dries up, you're not looking at a slow bleed. You're looking at a 50-70% crash in days.

C_B_Doyle

# Why Bitcoin Could Crash Hard **It's Just a Belief** Bitcoin doesn't produce anything. No earnings, no income, nothing. The only thing keeping the price up is people thinking someone else will pay more later. The moment that stops, you've got nothing to fall back on. **Too Few People Actually Own It** Most Bitcoin sits in whale wallets or gets locked up. The amount that actually trades every day is tiny. So when someone big wants to sell, there's barely anyone there to buy. Price moves hard and fast in either direction. **It Never Actually Became Money** Bitcoin was supposed to replace your credit card. It didn't. It's slow, expensive, you get taxed on it, and it swings 10% in a day. Even the big retailers that used to take it—Microsoft, Dell, Overstock—they all stopped. There's no real adoption here, just speculation. **Nothing Catches a Falling Knife** When a stock crashes, the company buys back shares. When a crypto crashes, nothing happens. There's no safety net. It just keeps falling until it finds a bottom nobody knows. **Everything's Held Together With Tape** The whole thing depends on exchanges that have blown up (FTX, Genesis), stablecoins that might not be backed, custodians that could disappear tomorrow. If any of those break, the whole trading infrastructure seizes up and price plummets. **Leverage Makes Everything Worse** Most of the "trading" is actually bets on bets—futures contracts, leveraged positions. When price drops, all those positions get forced to close at once. That forces even more selling. It spirals. **The Story Keeps Changing** First it was the future of money. Then digital gold. Then institutions were going to make it real. Then ETFs would save it. Every time the old story falls apart, they invent a new one. That's not investing, that's chasing narratives. **Gold Actually Works** Gold has central banks holding it, jewelry makers using it, thousands of years of being valuable. Bitcoin has people agreeing it's cool. One's real, one's not. **How It Could Fall Apart** A whale tries to cash out → the order book can't handle it → price drops 10% → panic sets in → people start dumping → the exchange or stablecoin infrastructure cracks under the pressure → derivatives blow up as positions liquidate → miners who can't make money anymore start selling → it just keeps going down. There's nothing to stop it once it starts. **The Real Risk** Bitcoin doesn't have a floor. It's just whatever the last bid was. When belief evaporates and liquidity dries up, you're not looking at a slow bleed. You're looking at a 50-70% crash in days. 🐻

lookingglass91

And when oil is priced in btc? Ignore You (2009-2012): BTC is a niche experiment. Cypherpunks mine it; media/Twitter barely notices. Price: <$1 to $10. No threat. Laugh at You/Ridicule (2013-2017): "Magic internet money," Ponzi scam jokes from CNBC, economists (e.g., Krugman: "Bitcoin is evil"). Bubbles pop (Mt. Gox), but awareness grows. Price: $1k peaks, crashes. Retail FOMO starts. Fight You/Attack (2018-2025+): Heavy resistance—regulators ban exchanges (China), SEC lawsuits (Ripple, Coinbase), FUD campaigns ("rat poison squared" - Warren Buffett), inflation smears, energy FUD, CBDC pushes as competition. 2022 FTX collapse weaponized. Yet halvings, Lightning, ETFs force grudging respect. Price: $69k ATH (2021), bear to $16k, back to $100k+ (2025). You Win (2026+ emerging): Mass adoption. Energy priced in BTC. (Electricity / oil), BTC as reserve asset (nations like El Salvador, maybe others), corporate treasuries (MicroStrategy, Tesla hold), TradFi integration (Goldman, Fideltiy, Citi Bank) (ETFs >$100B AUM), payment rails. Governments buy dips or launch BTC ETFs. Price moons indefinitely as sound money supplants fiat. Where are we now (March 2026)? Still deep in Stage 3: Fight You, but cracking toward Stage 4. Post-2025 peak ($125k), we're seeing intensified battles—SEC delays on more ETFs/staking, EU MiCA regs squeezing privacy coins, US political theater (pro/anti-BTC bills), bank FUD on volatility amid macro chaos. But wins mount: Nation-state buying rumors, ETF inflows resuming, on-chain metrics show HODLers stacking (reserves <2.5M BTC). The "fight" is fiercer because victory's close—institutions aren't laughing anymore; they're competing. Full "win" hits when fiat debasement accelerates. Resistance = fuel; expect more noise before silence.

DelapidatedNoodle

We need FTX Sam back out to fake pump our bags. This time we know it's fake and we will cash out before the crash. Right guys? Right?....

Apprehensive-Eye6767

Given what happened to you with FTX, I’d keep it boring this time. If I were in your shoes, I’d separate three things very clearly: stack sats steadily, keep a real cash buffer, and stop trying to be clever with dips. A weekly DCA already solves most of the problem. The bigger mistake for someone rebuilding trust is usually overcommitting too early, then getting shaken out by volatility a few weeks later. Personally, I’d keep the 7–8k partly outside the market and scale in over time rather than fire it all at once. Not because timing is impossible in some grand philosophical sense, just because peace of mind matters. If BTC drops right after you deploy everything, it can mess with your head even if your long-term view is intact. You already have the right instinct: treat this as accumulation, not a trade. The other part is custody. After FTX, I’d make self-custody part of the plan from day one, not something to think about later. You’re early in your career, you have income, low fixed costs, and time on your side. That matters more than finding the perfect entry.

DemandNew8116

First of all congrats. You passed the Ego test. Bitcoin gods will be pleased with you. (figure of speech, tsk, tsk we have no gods) 2nd of all if you are somebody that is looking to live a normal peaceful life, you set up a regular DCA, and then - this is where you messed up with FTX - you withdraw those coins to the wallet YOU OWN. There are a lot of resources around the internet about which wallet and how to do it safely etc. Then treat your hardware wallet the way you would treat a repository of gold. Keep it secret, keep it safe, as Gandalf would say. On dips like these you double the dca amount and then after we are back in the range that we can consider "fair price" - power laws are putting this to be fair above 100k, if you believe those things. This is the way.

Dudester319

How’d you lose money at FTX? They refunded losses to most folks I heard pretty much on Solana gains alone.

Stats_DontCare0

Your $100/week DCA already sounds like a solid, low stress approach. If it were me, I’d probably keep the DCA and deploy the extra 7–8k gradually instead of all at once. After the FTX situation, spreading risk over time just feels safer mentally too.

CryptoOnTheSidewalk

Losing coins in the FTX mess would put anyone off for a while, so taking a slower approach now makes sense. Quick question first, are you planning to keep your BTC on an exchange again or move it to your own wallet after buying? Your DCA plan already looks reasonable for your income, the main thing is consistency. A lot of people split that extra lump sum into chunks instead of deploying it all at once, just so one bad entry week does not mess with your head. Something like adding a bit to your weekly buys until the 7–8k is used up is pretty common. The other big lesson since 2020 is custody. If you plan to hold long term, buying on an exchange and then periodically moving it to your own wallet removes the “FTX risk” from the equation. Just keep in mind fees and network conditions when moving funds around, small frequent withdrawals can add up. The boring plan usually wins here.

giregam

considering exchanges you trust now, not FTX. security and custody are key for long-term HODLing

Well-I-suppose

Your broker is risk free if you're using one that's CHESS sponsored. You should never be using a non-CHESS sponsored broker in the first place. Your bank is risk free if you live in a first world country and use any major bank where the government will bail it out to protect deposits. The ETFs in any first world country have very strict reporting and transparency requirements. It's nothing like FTX. The only reason not to trust ETFs is if you live in a third world country and/or dictatorship like China.

bytewitco

fear & greed has been sub-15 for over a month now. longest streak since FTX. every previous instance of 2+ weeks below 15, the 90-day return was positive — avg +47%. doesn't mean timing is easy but the risk/reward at these levels has historically been heavily skewed to the upside.

Godex_io

Imagine explaining NFTs, LUNA and FTX to him in one sentence

NoodlesOnTuesday

APY is almost the last thing I'd look at. The number that actually matters is the LTV ratio and where the platform sets the liquidation threshold. Borrow at 50% LTV and they liquidate at 80%? You need a 60% BTC drop before you're in trouble. Liquidation at 65%? Much less room. In a volatile market, that gap is the difference between a useful tool and a wipeout. A few things I'd check before comparing rates: * Do they notify you and give time to top up before liquidating, or is it automatic and instant? * Is your BTC held in their custody, or verifiable on-chain? * What's their track record when markets move fast? FTX taught everyone that APY means nothing if the platform has issues. Once those boxes are checked, then compare rates. Optimising APY before liquidation mechanics is the wrong order. Cheers

Academic_Attorney996

Giving your Bitcoin to someone to handle is serious business that you can lose it. Sound like FTX scam, 3Arrow,BlockFi, and TerraLuna Crash kind-of-loan-collateral.

samurai0

look at the fibs. we always retrace just below the 23.6 retracement. That makes high 30s almost guaranteed. With a "black swan" like FTX, or 10/10, 30K becomes a pretty good target.

beklog

Staking in FTX ;)

kyle_yes

Geminis explanation The "Hidden" Motives Behind Outflows Internal Exchange Shuffling: Often, an exchange will move massive amounts of Bitcoin from a hot wallet (used for active trading) to a cold wallet (offline storage) for security purposes. On-chain scanners sometimes misread this as an "outflow" when the exchange is just reorganizing its own funds. OTC Desk Liquidity: Whales and institutions rarely dump massive bags directly on the open spot market because it would tank the price and ruin their average exit price. Instead, they move coins off the main exchange and route them to Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks to sell privately. Institutional Custody Transfers: A large entity might withdraw from a retail platform to move their holdings to an institutional custodian (like Coinbase Prime) specifically to execute a steady, algorithmic sell-off (like a TWAP—Time-Weighted Average Price) over several weeks. Government or Bankruptcy Movements: Massive spikes often correlate with seized assets (like the US or German governments moving Silk Road BTC) or bankrupt entities (like Mt. Gox or FTX estates) preparing to liquidate assets to repay creditors. When you see a single day with a massive 31,900 BTC outflow like we saw on March 4th, it is almost always an institutional transfer or an exchange doing housecleaning, rather than retail investors suddenly deciding to hold long-term.

pixelsteve

FTX crash happened on a super blood moon

baIIern

30k would be crazy tbh. Approx. the same loss as during last bear (in percent) but back then we had FTX helping with it. What would be the catalyst this time?

ubermensch1001

What's crazy is to think that in late November of 2022 we were in the fallout after the collapse of FTX and just 15 months later from there they launched the BTC ETFs AND we were setting a new all time high.

PirateSKB

Ya Kucoin, Cryptopia, Bittrex ((iirc?) and others did something similar with exchange tokens >What do you mean artificial scarcity? Ya, that's the usecase for most burns. Scarcity = value. Alot of projects since Bomb after the 2017 bullrun started doing that. On alot of levels, it seems like it worked well imo, especially for optics There's always the chance we could get a 2017 or 2021 style bullrun in a few years and it could moon, or it could moon on its own, or the entire exchange could go up in flames like FTX did, or like my personal favorite Cryptopia did back in 2019 (I lost my BTC during that crash along with lots of other dead projects) Realistically no one knows bud, but if you like the project, there's nothing wrong with throwing a few disposable bucks at it

Baseic

That's insane talk. 'It's the previous government fault for being slow and incapable, so now have to give free reign to open corruption.' Meanwhile the people calling out FTX before it went under were ridiculed exactly by the same people asking for free corruption now.

Sharlach

Four years of Gary Gensler bringing frivolous lawsuits against companies that did nothing wrong while letting FTX commit fraud right under his nose may have been a mistake on the Democrats side.

marvinrabbit

Similar, I agree. Mt gox was largely caused by external theft, (although internal bad practices caused it to be not caught or ignored). FTX was largely caused by internal theft (and channeling crypto funds from the exchange to their highly related investment company, which also failed). However, there was little difference to the users/customers that lost money.

RobinhoodtraderBTC

But the guy running it was a piece of shit. I don’t remember the details but he was scamming people, it wasn’t really the fact that he used an exchange that FTX was a scam.

Boat-Song-7788

I stand corrected. FTX was indeed after, not before the crash. The point remains that at that time there was a real link between regulations and the crash of BTC, while now that link is simply not there.

Inevitable_Pin7755

mostly comes down to control. When your BTC is on an exchange you don’t actually control the keys, the exchange does. So technically you just have an IOU from them. Most of the time it’s fine, but history has shown exchanges can fail, freeze withdrawals, get hacked, or collapse. FTX is the obvious example but there have been many others over the years. Cold storage just removes that counterparty risk. If you control the private keys, no company can block you from accessing your Bitcoin. For small amounts some people leave it on exchanges for convenience, but once the amount becomes meaningful many prefer moving it to cold storage so they fully control it. If you’re holding long term it usually makes sense. I talk about this kind of stuff a lot in my newsletter as well. Link in my profile if you’re interested.

Well-I-suppose

>  Is it because of trust on exchange?  Yes. > What if the exchange is trusted? FTX was trusted too. Then it went bankrupt and everyone lost their money.

Grand-Button5819

Ask people who held their coins on FTX. 😉

Hayabusa_PT

A lot of people trusted FTX...

get_MEAN_yall

You're confusing cause and effect here. FTX collapsed as a result of the price going down not vice versa. The collapse was Nov 2022 after btc price had already gone -70% that cycle.

Boat-Song-7788

In addition to that, almost all previous big drops were DIRECTLY linked to some event happening (i.e. the FTX fiasco in 2022 or the regulatory crackdowns in 2018, ). This time there is no such link.. this time the reason for the drop is a large drop in general confidence in the crypto space.

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Subject-Chest-8343

Well... I'm starting to think it could be priced in. We went below 2022 ATH in 4 months. In 2022 we went below 2018 ATH after 12 months, AND rate hikes, AND a very bad year for stock market AND TerraUSD collapse, AND Celsius, AND FTX. So in a sense, it almost looks like the market expects rates to stay the same or go higher, the stock market to go down, and seeing either Strategy or Coinbase to blow up, all in 2026. Max pain price for end of march is 75k, and 85k end of june... Time will tell.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Approximately 38% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows, surpassing the stress levels seen after the FTX collapse. This highlights a systemic weakness in the altcoin market, driven by prolonged structural decline, reduced liquidity, and diminished investor confidence. The broader macro environment remains unfavorable for speculative assets, with capital flowing toward equities and commodities. While altcoins face significant pressure, historically, such depressed conditions have often preceded potential recovery opportunities. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

whataboutbenson

IMHO Bitcoin is almost completely divorced from the news cycle and always has been. It just does its own thing and sometimes its big moves just happen to coincide with news stories and people falsely connect them. The only events I think made a genuine impact were covid lockdowns and FTX, but even they were relatively short-lived.

watch-nerd

14 is not the lowest since FTX. It as 5 about a week ago.

angelwolf71885

An exchange hack could certainly do that alah GOX or an exchange collapse alah FTX

ODD_Old_Dirty_Degen

Talking in absolutes like "impossible to guarantee world economic growth" is almost always inaccurate. Especially when the period from 1870 to 1914 had great economic growth and is seen as the most dynamic growth period in modern economic history. About Bitcoin depending on exchanges: Bitcoin the protocol does not depend on exchanges. People use exchanges for convenience and liquidity. Thats a difference. FTX failing did not stop the Bitcoin network for a single block. The protocol continued operating exactly as designed. That distinction matters. Youre right that most people rely on intermediaries but it doesnt logically imply Bitcoin requieres a banking system clone to exist. It only implies that convenience layers tend to crentralize - which happens in every industry, including the internet itself. On your "institutions only speculate" argument: speculation alone doesnt invalidate an asset. Gold has no cash flow either. Neither does art or certain commodities. The srongest claim you make is that without massive black market Bitcoin would be worth zero. Thats a bold statement, but it needs evidence. You would have to show that illicit demand is large enough to hold up the value of a trillion dollar asset class. So far available blockchain analytics suggest illicit activity represents only a small fraction of total volume.Also the idea that only criminals would stay invested completely ignores that: \-public companies hold BTC on balance sheets \-regulated ETFs exist (with cumulative inflows of 55b $)

ReallyOrdinaryMan

Binance partnership with Ondo Finance. It looks like another FTX situation, FTX started by partnership with Binance.

TheresNoSecondBest

I think keeping all my bitcoin in one would be too risky so I've decided to keep 30% in Celsius, 30% in BlockFi, 30% in Voyager and 10% in FTX. Now just waiting to get the decent returns./s #Funds are safu.

Plunkerton_

Celsius and BlockFi are the biggest and most trusted, backed by many high profile investors. Voyager is also high profile with decent returns. If you want something for a more institutional feel you could check out Genesis or 3AC, or if you want something a bit smaller but paying more check out Vauld. If none of these are quite the right fit, you could always just park it on FTX for a flat 5%.

AvatarOfMomus

They're only 'infrastructure' if they're widely used, and specifically widely used in the US. They aren't, and if they were to even get close to becoming 'structural' to the US economy the government would increase regulation and scrutiny of them. We already saw at least one round of this after the FTX collapse and subsequent fallout, and it saw CZ go to jail and Binance's US opperations significantly curtailed because it turns out the sorts of people who wanted to use Binance didn't want to do a bunch of KYC checks under US jurisdiction, and even less wanted to do it with literal law enforcement reading over Binance's shoulder. Everyone who was fine with strict KYC in the US, or even saw it as desireable, was already on Coinbase.

KiNg-MaK3R

Same. Oh man the FTX crash sucked…

Willing_Gas7868

That’s a solid idea. Seeing real data through 2021, the crash, and FTX gives people a realistic view of what DCA actually feels like. Tools like this can help beginners focus on consistency instead of timing.

Zestyclose_Paint3922

The gold standard is a worn out discussion, i would encourage you to read about it in an academic way. Long story short it was impossible to guarantee world economic growth as we have it now if it wasnt abolished. About BTC reliabilty as you say it lies in intermediareis. To make it something practical it will have to depend on exchanges and exchanges as it has been proved time after time, will "dissapear" the money one way or another unless they are regulated and regulating them would just be equivalent to creating another banking ecosystem identical to the one that already exists. About governments and institutions accepting it, it is mostly again due to speculation and not so pure interests (they dont really have an use for it). I havent been able to find data regarding how much of bitcoin transactions are around illicit activities, but again, understanding how investments works in general, the numerous situations around exchanges (FTX like) already proved BTC will never be really functional without regulation, so unless there is an incredibly big black market around BTC its value would have gone to zero a long time ago. Its impossible there are enough well informed, well intentioned investors that kept enugh real money in the ecosystem with the repeating catastropees around reliability. Only people with increibly high risk acceptance and loads of real but "unusable" money could have done that (criminals).

economist_kinda

FTX was a "legit exchange"

9th_username

So was SBF, the head of FTX

Glittering-Doubt4955

Jane Street is a notorious bad actor. Caroline Ellison, partly responsible for the FTX fraud, was from Jane Street.

mrjune2040

Yeah, it's crazy- I think the issue is probably that it's just such a small amount of money compared to other crypto cases. They've probably spent as much money as being distributed at this point. Celsius, FTX etc only took a few years which was relative quick given the complexity of their financial situations. Anyway- good luck to you (assuming you're a creditor) and any others with the return 👍🏼

cooltone

June 2022 the price hit bottom at ~ $20k - then sideways. November 2022 - FTX imploded the price to ~ $16k - then sideways. January 2023 the FTX sales was over and the price went back to ~ 20k - from then it accumulated ~ 40%/year. I believe bitcoin now at ~ $67.5k ± $2k will accumulate at ~ 40%/year, unless there are some macro market events that people have to sell their stash for. I also believe institutions are aware that the environment is now favourable for building sovereign reserves, acting as a buffer, so any price window below $65k will be short lived.

DemApples4u

Might explain the low peak this cycle. Another FTX situation

Ryytter

You lucked out this time. Glad you learned the lesson without paying the cost. FTX collapse should still be in the memory of everyone. Take a deep breath 🥰

Blueberry_Dependent

Forget about fundamental and look what's happening in the world - Basically nothing major in order to crash Bitcoin 50%. For the first time in many years banks have interest in crypto and Bitcoin yet price down, fear index at all time low. Basically now people are more scared than during Covid or FTX collapse which doesn't make sense at all. Everything is a F joke of manipulation for the poor people so they sell whatever breadcrumbs of BTC they have on a low price 

Spirited-Ad655

Try FTX

Prestigious_Neck_382

What can I google to find what happend with FTX?

HSuke

Yeah. Every cycle is different. * **2014** - Cycle ended hard with Mt. Gox collapse * **2018** - Felt like a gigantic bubble when retail entered hard. Contrary to popular belief on this sub, I think most logical retail investors (at least the more intelligent ones) left during this cycle. * **2022** - Cycle ended hard with the FTX collapse, crypto hedge fund collapse, CEX collapse, NFT collapse * **2025** - No sudden collapse. Instead, it's a slow decline of all the Bitcoin/crypto narratives. Retail just isn't interested anymore. They've moved onto other speculative assets.

marvinrabbit

FTX looked like it wasn't a huge risk as little as a week before failure. Their name was on a stadium, their logo was on MLB officials, they had TV ads. It's only in hindsight that you could look back and see warning signs. So if the warnings can only be seen in hindsight that can apply to any current exchange.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Justin Sun, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency industry, is embroiled in numerous legal battles involving his projects and affiliations. These include disputes over the Huobi name, allegations of reserve mismanagement with TrueUSD, lawsuits with Coinbase over Wrapped Bitcoin, and accusations from the FTX estate regarding asset retention. Sun is also facing an SEC lawsuit for alleged unregistered securities sales and market manipulation. Additionally, he has filed lawsuits against Bloomberg and David Geffen, while his financial ties to Donald Trump have drawn scrutiny. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

harvested

Bit of a difference isn't it Last bear had the most rapid interest rake hike in recent history after zero rates. Many fraud / corruption blowups such as FTX, 3ac, genesis, and tons more smaller ones. An administration that would have loved so smack down some crippling regulation on those blowups. Its fundamentally a completely different environment. But keep looking at the calendar. Jfc this account has bad takes all over.

Cuntwhore2004

Yeah, the bottom isn't in until Saylor is in hand cuffs. Strategy will be the FTX of this cycle.

gorewndis

This exact argument gets recycled every bear market. In 2016, The DAO hack nearly killed Ethereum — actual chain split, hard fork, existential debate about immutability. In 2018 it was ICO fraud. 2022 was Terra/Luna + FTX. Each cycle the casino layer died, the infrastructure layer survived and grew. Meme coin gambling is annoying noise, but it's sitting on top of an L2 ecosystem substantially more mature than anything that existed two years ago. Hard to call that dying. The stuff that actually matters keeps getting built regardless of what price does.

Abject-Stretch-1187

Third cycle here buddy. Again it isn’t that simple. When you expect it, that’s when it won’t happen. Hell you’re only talking about last cycle like last cycle was meant to have a 77% drawdown. Without FTX, we wouldn’t have seen such a drawdown so you expecting such a drawdown without any substantive reasoning other than it has happened before will only get you rekt. That’s literally gambling. 

marvinrabbit

A little later I'll outline what I do. I wouldn't call these 'recommendations' because there is such a wide range of really good practices. I was getting a tumor the size of an XL egg sucked out of my brain when FTX went under. I was philosophical that my losses were part of the operation expense. But it would have sucked to come back to reality only to find that all my crypto was gone. (BTW. Don't trust people that say your only backup of wallet seeds should be memorization. When I woke up I had **no idea** what any of my passwords were.)

piggleii

Yeah, FTX's downfall totally had nothing to do with SBF being a criminal psychopath.

Medium_Change4574

He also took out FTX and tried to do so with Hyperliquid.  That mf would fuck up the whole space and then jump on X and be like "🤣 BUIDL!"

Stray14

They are going to be the FTX of this run. Bottom of the market is when they begin to touch their holdings. It’s coming…

marvinrabbit

As a US user, you would not be using Binance, but rather Binance.US. They aren't completely the same. I would not recommend binance.us as I grew dissatisfied with them in the past. I like Kraken much better. But I would also encourage you to think seriously about self custody (along with a small exchange exposure). I don't know you or your situation, but it saved me boat loads of money. I previously traded on FTX. They had all the image of stability. There was an arena, they had patches on MLB officials... It didn't take very long to go from first warning signs to total collapse. Self custody is not something that can be entered lightly. But it is the only way to not rely on outside help. In the US, if my bank fails, it's probably FDIC insured. If my investment brokerage fails, it's probably SIPC insured. There is nothing that fills the same niche for crypto exchanges. So through my pre-planning, when FTX failed, I lost a little less than $1000 dollars instead of all my crypto holdings.

Spirited-Ad655

Well just look at FTX...

Captain_Planet

The black swan last time was FTX, I've got my money on MicroStrategy collapsing.

Quietabandon

Why does every one think everyone else is NPCs. Wouldn’t it be likely that you are an NPC too? Just with main character syndrome?  Plus bitcoin randomly shot up after Trump was elected. What was that about?  The case for Bitcoin is interesting. It’s a portable open source store of value that’s hard capped. It has certain use cases. And does really question what it means to be truly open source and stateless vs fiat that is backed by governments.  But these wild price locations aren’t based in fundamentals like adoption. They are based in speculation. Some of that was speculation about a possible crypto friendly admin that was going to possibly try to force lower interest rates. Some of that was speculation around bitcoin ETFs. Before that we had a downward correction because of FTX.  A lot of this is speculative pressures, whale market manipulation etc. Basically noise. Finding the true value of bitcoin outside of the speculative hype is hard but will be likely the driver of long term growth and trends.  Your responding to near term fluctuations is NPCs behavior too. 

Fool_on_da_hill

You’re the one who posted a really stupid comment. Think it through. What happened after FTX? the market crashed and then recovered.

Whoodabosss

Ya but there must be common sense here guys. Like what is the emotional or higher play here? The scammer shows social proof, then proceeds to say swap your coins for a higher return and then Runs off the with money? Celsius and FTX was one really hard scam to uncover, these were established organizations with widespread corruption.

blaziken8x

It's bait for sure, Kraken is trying to offer me 3% bonus on deposits, but if you look at the small print, you have to keep it on there for a minimum of 18 months and must not move it from exchange during that time period. While I like Kraken, I'm not keeping a large amount of money with them for a prolonged period of time, to earn some change. 18 months is plenty of time to have another FTX or LUNA type collapse.

financeguruIB

Yep. Went as low as $9 in 2022 due to the FTX scandal but went to 270 in 2025

gucciloafer_

I’m 100% out of crypto now purely because of the insanity of the fraud. I was around for Waltonchain (small scale scamming), Celsius (lost a lot there but got some back) and FTX. Just this week I got a phone call from a “Detective Inspector” at a London police station claiming they’d arrested someone who had a copy of my driving license on them. They said it was related to crypto fraud and asked me if I had any funds and on which platform. I said “a bit on coinbase”. Five minutes later someone from “Coinbase Support” called me up, told me they’d locked my account (they hadn’t) and to move my funds to a “new safe wallet”. He then told me to write down a 12 word seed phrase. When I told him the whole thing was sus he read out to me an old password I had used years ago (probably bought the data on the dark web from a leak) and told me i was at risk. I told him i’m not an idiot and that no one should know a seed phrase but me, then he hung up. Just a waste of 15 minutes of my life over some nonsense. Honestly easier to put money into stocks and shares, less hassle and less volatile.

__Ken_Adams__

If the exchange loses your btc, you lose 100% of the value. If the exchange loses *other people's* btc because you were smart enough to not leave your coins there, any resulting price dip will only be temporary and you lose nothing. Also, bitcoin's history is full of failed exchanges and lost btc. Mt Gox, btc-e, Celcius, Voyager, BlockFi, FTX, QuadrigaCX, Cryptopia, and many, many more. Everyone thinks it won't happen to them until it does. Not your keys, not your coins.

TheRicFlairDrip

He didnt create it but hes the face behind it, similar to when Shaq was sued for promoting FTX

SeanSatBahamas

What would justify a 75% drawdown? Do we have another FTX crash? Do we have fed interest hikes? Do we have a stock market crash? All that and more happened in 2022. 2026 is very much different. I am even shocked that the price dropped 50%!!

ThreeTonChonker

Had to check your profile to see why someone would be wasting their time posting in a crypto sub if they hate it. You invested in both CRO and FTX?

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Bear-Bull-Pig

FTX gave people a target too

Blueberry_Dependent

Because if you don't you might learn the hard way when you lose your money. A cold wallet is 50-100$ but that's a small price to pay if you have to protect 2000$ +. Do what you want but don't blame the exchanges or platforms when shit goes down. I have only one thing to say to you - FTX crash.

lehope

I have a huge bag with ICP and have been buying out of FOMO every time I hear Dominic talking about the tech. But at this point, when he keeps talking about price manipulation 5 years after launch and 4 years after FTX collapse, I start to lose faith. I won't burn any more money in ICP and don't care anymore about missing 10 or 100x.

Patient-Bumblebee

Binance is much bigger than FTX ever was. Even though DEX's have more adoption now than in 2022, the blow to crypto would be massive. Systemic effects (Tether collapse) would be entirely possible at that stage.

CoffeeAlternative647

Its a matter of time till people open their eyes and ask for proof of reserves after they get prevented from withdraw their money, just like what happened with FTX, blockfi, celsius... This is simply the same shit with different smell

SurroundAccording535

for real. the people who kept buying through the FTX mess are not complaining right now

nachtraum

Current state is nothing compared to the,situation after Luna or FTX crashes in 2022.

TheNavyCrow

>Crypto ecosystem already had past crumbles for example when Mt. Gox or FTX collapsed, and it survived. idk. the mt gox incident happened in the early crypto days, and FTX was still way smaller than binance

-5H4Z4M-

It's the same scenario as Satoshi would sell all his Bitcoin. Market would crash instantly, there would be mass panic sell which would low prices even more and also cause millions of liquidations which again low prices. Medias, influencers would say crypto is dead which would keep to create more fear and many people would give up. Weak crypto assets would not survive. On Medium term, capital would flow into other exchanges that are still alive, and it would need months for the migration to take its first effects on the market but it would be bearish for a while. Then after all the liquidity moved to other exchanges, market would start to stabilize, crypto assets that survived would consolidate and a new bullish period would start. Crypto ecosystem already had past crumbles for example when Mt. Gox or FTX collapsed, and it survived.

icnews10

If Binance disappeared overnight, crypto wouldn’t die — but the *retail on-ramp* would freeze hard for a while. Two things can be true at once: • Centralized exchanges are single points of trust and failure • Mass adoption still depends on abstraction layers that most users don’t want to manage We already saw a partial version of this with FTX. Liquidity fragmented, spreads widened, and risk premiums exploded — but the network itself kept running. Self-custody didn’t break; *behavior* did. The real risk isn’t “no exchanges,” it’s **no credible, boring, regulated custodial layer** that people trust like they trust a bank. If Binance died tomorrow, flows would migrate (Coinbase, Kraken, TradFi rails), but adoption would stall until trust re-anchors. Crypto’s bottleneck isn’t technology — it’s institutional confidence and UX. Until those are solved, every major exchange is both an enabler *and* a systemic risk.

mrjune2040

You probably aren't old enough to be around when MtGox died but relative to the market at that time (controlled over 70% of volume) that was a bigger player than Binance is now. FTX also happened, another 'too big to fail exchange'. Of course there would be an all mighty crash, but over time liquidity and trading will simply migrate to existing or new platforms. Binance isn't crypto.