FTX

phoebecatesboobs

Let’s say they go into bankruptcy protection. In the past what has happened is court proceedings take so long that the assets end up being worth significantly more. This happened to Mt Gox and FTX for example. They wouldn’t be dumb and dump it all at once, and they may only need to sell a small amount of their overall holdings. If you think this is wrong, then why would it turn out differently for Strategy?

tx_brandon

Straight up for a year after FTX crash? Naw, that's not what happened. A 22% pullback late Feb to early March isn't straight up. Plenty of wise people loaded up on the 22% pullback. Got another 20% pull back from April to June 2023. Then another from July to September. Don't shoot the messenger.

KiNg-MaK3R

This. This is exactly why you DCA. When Bitcoin bottomed out with the FTX crash, it basically went up straight for more than a year. I bought during this time every month and I can’t tell you how many people said they’d buy once Bitcoin got under $10k. There are so many memes of people waiting for $10-12k during that period. Loading up while it was going up from $20k to $40k seemed dumb to many people at that time. Now you are buying sub $90k dips and think it’s a steal. Hope this helps everyone. DCA is your path to sanity.

Veganarchyst

It is bizarre to me that 99.9% of all Bitcoin "influencers" and YouTubers and BTC dabblersetc tell us that "it is necessary" for Bitcoin to be accepted by the banks and financial institutions and government, when Bitcoin is LITERALLY created to be the opposite, to be against that system to be the opposite of everything capitalism and corporate finance and banking is about I have disagreed with all of them from the get go And this is why The only way Bitcoin will function as it should and was created to do, is if retail acceptance comes back in and takes over, but retail is at the largest FEAR index it's ever been (probably rightly so), and the average person thinks Bitcoin is "too expensive" now, even though we are at such an early time But if retail doesn't come back, and it looks like it's not going to, the way financial systems work, they gobble up and modify and manipulate everything for their own use and wants, and all we will have is more corporate capitalism companies like Celsius and FTX who will manipulate the market, sell paper coin as if it's real, find clever ways to turn everything against the average person And we look like we are already 70% of the way there now Once they ingrain their systems, it won't go back

elidevious

4. Banking pressure: “Operation Choke Point 2.0” You’ve probably heard this phrase. The claim: Federal bank regulators quietly pressured banks to “de-risk” crypto clients, echoing the Obama-era Operation Choke Point against disfavored industries. Evidence: • Commentators like Nic Carter documented a pattern of supervisory guidance and backchannel pressure from Fed, FDIC, and OCC, discouraging banks from serving crypto firms. • After Silvergate, Signature, and SVB collapsed in 2023, reports noted that the FDIC required Signature’s buyer to drop most of its crypto deposits, feeding the narrative of a coordinated crypto banking crackdown. • FDIC correspondence later surfaced that explicitly treated digital-asset activities as elevated risk, giving more credence to the “Choke Point 2.0” framing. Formally, regulators say they’re just enforcing risk management. Practically, many banks concluded, “Crypto = not worth the supervisory heat.” That’s a soft ban in all but name. ⸻ 5. Sanctions, AML, and the war on privacy tooling Tornado Cash sanctions On August 8, 2022, Treasury’s OFAC sanctioned Tornado Cash, adding smart contracts to the sanctions list — the first time open-source code infrastructure itself was directly targeted as a sanctioned “entity.” • OFAC alleged Tornado Cash was used to launder over $7B, including hundreds of millions stolen by North Korea’s Lazarus Group. • This raised huge civil-liberties questions: if immutable smart contracts are “sanctioned persons,” is using privacy tech itself a potential violation, regardless of intent? Crypto users and developers sued, arguing OFAC exceeded its authority. A federal appeals court later rejected the sanctions as applied, finding they went beyond what the underlying statute allowed. But for most of Biden’s term, Tornado Cash was under a cloud of sanctions, developers were arrested/charged, and using mainnet privacy tools felt legally radioactive. Broader AML enforcement Alongside Tornado Cash, there were stepped-up actions against: • Exchanges and platforms with inadequate KYC/AML • Mixers and DeFi projects alleged to facilitate sanctions evasion and cybercrime ⸻ 6. Stablecoins: treated as proto-shadow-banks The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (PWG), together with FDIC and OCC, issued a major stablecoin report in Nov 2021: • Highlighted risks of runs, payment-system disruption, and concentration of economic power. • Recommended that only insured depository institutions (i.e., banks) be allowed to issue “payment stablecoins,” and that Congress urgently create a comprehensive federal framework to regulate them like banks. So from the administration’s own working group: “Stablecoins should be bank-like and under bank-level regulation.” That’s not a ban, but it is a big red target on the current stablecoin model (Tether, USDC, etc.), and an invitation to clamp down until they look like regulated bank deposits. ⸻ 7. Mining & environmental angle The OSTP/White House climate report didn’t just analyze; it recommended tools: • Track mining locations, electricity use, emissions, and e-waste • Consider energy efficiency/performance standards • Potentially limit or restrict high-emission mining operations if they conflict with climate goals Combined with state-level moves (e.g., New York’s partial moratorium on certain mining operations), this reinforced the idea that Bitcoin mining, in particular, was fair game as an environmental target — even as many miners argued they were using stranded or renewable energy. ⸻ 8. Tax enforcement emphasis While the IRS first labeled crypto “property” back in 2014, under Biden: • The infrastructure bill’s reporting rules (see §1) were explicitly sold as addressing the “tax gap” in digital assets. • Treasury and IRS repeatedly flagged crypto compliance as a priority area, and IRS got more funding under the broader push to beef up enforcement across high-income and complex assets. ⸻ 9. Big picture: was it a “war on crypto”? If you zoom out: • Narrative from the administration side: • Crypto is mostly speculative, rife with fraud, environmentally risky, and a potential threat to financial stability and sanctions enforcement. • Therefore: heavy enforcement of existing laws, tighter tax reporting, banking supervision, and exploring stricter stablecoin rules. • Narrative from the industry / Bitcoiner side: • SEC refused to write clear rules while suing everyone. • Bank regulators used soft power to de-bank the industry (“Operation Choke Point 2.0”). • The White House’s own reports and rhetoric were openly hostile, not neutral. • Privacy and self-custody tools were treated as suspect by default (Tornado Cash being the poster child). You can call that “prudential oversight” or a “war on crypto,” depending on your priors — but in practical terms, scrutiny and friction massively increased during Biden’s term, especially 2021–2023 after the bull peak and ensuing blowups (Terra, Celsius, FTX, etc.).

TechnologyMinute2714

Bro's going to be like those that shorted, aiming for $13k when FTX collapsed then get liquidated because he's waiting for the doomer scenario not realizing his midwit take on MSTR isn't short term nor enough to counter the upcoming massively bullish macro environment in the global economy.

Sonu201

Criminals are mostly using crypto for money laundering. Now if he took $500 mil from criminals and fled, it is not going to end well...so don't "invest" your hard earned money in crypto...its stupid pension funds are now "investing " in this scam, Ontario teachers pension plan lost $120 M in FTX...the fund manager needs to be fired!

Additional_Cash_3357

I appreciate the reasons you feel Bitcoin feels like a revolution in “trust” and “freedom,” but the real-world track record doesn’t support that story. “Trustless” in theory just became new things to trust in practice: * Exchanges like Mt. Gox, Quadriga, and FTX: billions evaporated because people still needed middlemen. * Mining pools + core devs: a tiny group ends up steering the whole network. * Whales: a handful of wallets can tank the price on a whim. You've replace trust and handed it over to actors with zero accountability. And that "freedom" part? Ask anyone who lost coins to a hack or mistyped a seed phrase. There’s no protection, no reversal, no recourse. The freedom is basically “you’re on your own.” Great until something goes wrong. "**your wallet, their money"** Meanwhile the wealth distribution is wildly unequal. The top wallets control the vast majority of supply. If anything, Bitcoin created a more concentrated, opaque elite than the banking system it claims to replace. Bitcoin just replaced familiar ones with unregulated ones that answer to nobody. You've been hoodwinked with slogans and bullshit, all the while the old regime has been replace with the new one. These guys are the real "globalists."

B1ggusDckus

Dumping? Tis a minor correction. You probably weren't around for the FTX or Covid 19 crash for that matter.

Awkward_Potential_

If they want to be the next FTX they can try. But people figured out sam pretty quickly.

ualdayan

I wouldn’t, but then I remember Celsius offering bonuses before they suddenly froze withdrawals and declared bankruptcy. I thought it would be better to spread it around last cycle — don’t put it all in one basket - so I also had some at Blockfi, FTX, Nexo (ironically the one I considered the least trustable and put the least in). I even thought let’s try DeFi - borrow against some Bitcoin and put it in UST for yield. Yeah - not doing that again. Never again am I going to chase yield or ‘bonuses’ on Bitcoin.

na3than

Who cares? Anyone who got suckered into similar get-something-for-nothing products and promotions from Celsius, FTX, BlockFi, Voyager, Genesis and others that ultimately imploded and took their customers' assets down with them.

Archophob

Not your keys, not your coins. If you have some prepper mindset, you will want to be prepared in case the exchange of your choice goes the Mt.Gox or FTX route. If you don't have this prepper mindset, why bother with bitcoin in the first place? Just let your financial advisor pick some stocks for you, and pray that nothing goes wrong.

zenecence

I lost 0.1 BTC held on FTX. Good luck.

urbangamermod

I can imagine, you must be brave to go through all that volatility for so many years and haven’t sold during that period. I only endured one brutal bear market which was the FTX collapse. I started in 2020-2021? I never sold but at the same time I didn’t aggressively buy either, I only DCA’d :/ wished I bought more in bear market but oh well.

crunchyeyeball

If you are able to follow the instructions and recommendations that come with cold storage, it's perfectly safe. If you're the kind of person who will ignore those instructions and hand over your seed phrase to the first scammer who emails you about an "urgent security update", maybe the ETFs are a better option. If you really want to leave it on an exchange, ask yourself whether they'll will one day be added to this list: |Exchange/Service|Year Failed|BTC lost| :--|:--|:--| |MtGox|2014|850.000| |FTX|2022|150.000| |Blockfi|2022|| |Celsius|2022|| |QuadrigaCX|2018|76.000| |Cryptopia|2019|| |Bitgrail|2018|| |Youbit|2017|| |Einstein|2017|| |Cointed|2018|| |Bitcoinica|2012|43.000| |Vircurex|2014|| |Coin.mx|2015|| |BTC-e|2018|| |Cryptsy|2016|13.000| Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins. Nobody thinks it will happen to them, until it happens to them.

joannew99

Coinbase Advanced Trading option for lower fees Sorry, but since 2022 I’ve seen huge exchanges that even had nationally televised commercials go under (Voyager, FTX), I’ve seen exchanges stop serving regions (Binance) and I’ve seen exchanges lock services for users in certain regions with months notice (Gate.io). Coinbase is a publicly traded company and survived CEX-DeFi Summer 2022. I trust them more than others. And also Kraken.

NerdFarming

Not Voyager, Celsius, Block Fi, or FTX. You're welcome.

ConcernSquare2474

This is the first step, next step is to introduce krakens own utility token, ultimate step is when liquidity is tight, only pay out utility token for rewards and refund. Anyone remember FTX and FTT? Nah just kidding, but this needs to be monitored pretty close. Thanks for sounding the alarm.

mzking87

In 2022 crash was caused by historical rate hikes, FTX and Teraluna collapses etc, not but drawing lines on a chart. So unless you are predicting another significant macro event I don’t see where you getting the collapses to $30k from.

adiabatic_storm

Yep, held through the FTX collapse. My attitude was basically, who cares what happens to some random new central exchange? Obviously a bummer for anyone who had BTC there and didn't move it off the exchange, but frankly that's something they should have known better than to do anyways after Mt. Gox...

light_death-note

Sol after the FTX debacle

Aggressive_Spell2314

Did you hodl through the FTX collapse? that’s when I got into crypto. I bought BTC like psycho when everyone was panic selling. lots of FUD back then. Things have changed a lot since.

jphillips8648

People would shit on him during the FTX collapse and now they are doing it again and they aren't even under water. Also, just because it looks like a pyramid, doesn't mean its a pyramid scheme.

JakRenden2

I keep thinking it won't happen but right now things aren't looking very good out there. If Saylor is forced to sell some BTC into this liquidity the FTX and Luna crashes will look like peanuts

AttemptKitchen

Crazy huh, just like the whole drop since 10th october, no news or anything for these movements. At least in past cycles we had the dramas of Mt. Gox, FTX, Terra Luna etc.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Prog47 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pbjprd/cyrpto_exchange/ So, I am thinking on trading crypto again. I don't need some of the more unusual coin availability. So limited type of coins is fine. Right now i'm thinking on just trading BTC & Eth. I am not a crypto holdler just a trader so i don't need to be able to hold my private keys & honestly would rather not assuming the broker is trustworthy. I do already have a gemini account but don't know how much faith i have in them. Creating my account a few years ago was a pain & their support was HORRIBLE (granted they could have improved). During the whole FTX fiasco i either sold my crypto & transferred my money out or transferred my crypto. I really didn't trust them at the time especially considering they breach they had & they got my email. I created a fidelity crypto account but fees seem high. I have used robinhood in the past & was wondering how they offered free cyrpto trading but now i know its from the spread which isn't great & robinhood. What i would prefer is to be able to trade in an account where i already have funds but i'm not going to deal with high fees. I would also like a place that has more advanced type of orders & functionality (like a buy limit order for example). I could probably make robinhood work but definitely. I primarily have funds in IBKR, Fidelity, & Schwab. I do have accounts at robinhood & gemini but really don't have any money there. If gemini is recommended then please let me know if i should be concerned of the safety of the broker. If i need to i guess i could create a coinbase account. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

iterativ

Just like After FTX at 16K then ? Read the posts from then and how the waiting for 12K, even 10K ...

baIIern

With ETFs in play and less danger of FTX 2.0, we will probably not got down 80% anymore

PaymentFlo

Crypto + gold isn’t competition, it’s stacking liquidity layers. Gold gives exchanges a durable base asset, crypto gives them speed and settlement finality. The blend reduces blow-up risk (FTX-style) and makes on/off-ramps more trustworthy long-term. If anything, gold accumulation signals exchanges are preparing for a more stable, institutional future.

Socialinfluencing

All markets are predictable. It's hilarious when you see the argument '' if it's so predictable why aren't you a multi millionaire? '' The reality is you need cash to buy in. The markets get manipulated to shake people out of their cash so that when opportunities arrive very few people actually get to take advantage of it, by design. That's why when you read about how the world is controlled by a very small group of people, the average person thinks it's some sort of conspiracy. It's true, and the majority of them work together. The whole FTX thing was planned, lmao. There's people that are grown adults that actually believe Sam was just some lone bad guy that wasn't indicative of the whole picture. He's also not in a regular prison, they get pampered. I myself didn't learn about investing until maybe 5-6 yrs ago, I didn't grow up with it. But I grew up with street smarts, and through that I quickly identified how manipulated and orchestrated the whole thing is, no matter what you invest in, crypto especially though. I used to try and tell people on this sub to wait etc, but there's so many bots and bros here that I decided to just focus on myself. The reality is, the road to winning in this market is a cold and lonely one, it's only after you hit it big that people will wanna listen to you, but I've figured out the average person is conditioned to have a poverty mindset, they want to be lead. So unfortunately there's nothing you can do about it. Undoubtedly the remaining retailers in this market will get caught out by suckers rallies or they'll make some money but ultimately miss out on the real gains. When the '' sky is falling '' though I'll be ready this time, ready because I want my own house, ready because I can't afford not to be. The average person doesn't really view it that way, you gotta be strategic and desperate enough to actually stand a chance.

diradder

> They are pegged to the dollar. They don’t need to beat inflation. Tether is a business endeavor of iFinex, they do need to make profits and if these profits do not beat inflation, it means they are not making profits. Their peg is only a feature of their product (USDT), that keep people using this service. If you want some kind of public service where profits are not required/abstracted, you want to involve a government, not a business... so is your answer, Tether should not be a business after all of this? > They need to run their business on tight margins and they’ll still get billions per year. interest on cash equivelents and fees are their moneymakers. Sure, try to convince their shareholders that they should be content with the minimum yield possible and the risk of not getting profits if inflation outpaces whatever they could get... that's just not how businesses work in liberal capitalism. > Saying they have 80% in cash and cash equivalents seems really bad to me. I think they’re claiming its higher. Not for 2025. That's likely one of the reasons their rating got decreased. They are taking more risks, they are betting on a recovery after the current downtrend, and they certainly are not alone on this. But I agree with you that they take more risk than they should, hence my avoidance of that asset as much as I can. But it's totally understandable that people can factor all of these risks and still use it (because it's most liquid, most convenient/prevalent on the market, has less oversight than other stables that are more ingrained US banking like USDC). > Having stablecoins backed by any amount of crypto also seems really bad to me. Any run on one, will coincide with a run on the other. > To prevent a collapse if users and arbitrage don’t cover the spread, then they need to buy it back immediately. If it dropped just a few points it would take a massive amount of money very fast to maintain confidence. This seems like a difficult thing to do amidst some sort of market panic event. This has been tested multiple times, events like FTX or COVID didn't really impact the peg as iFinex manages the supply based on this and preserves it. If they were just printing USDT "out of nowhere", such events would be noticeable on USDT's price history as liquidity is key in such cases.

GharDK

I bought 2,63 BTC in 2017 that eventually ended up on FTX for "long term storage" - learnt my lesson like the stupid bitch I was for making that decision.

killrmeemstr

more discounts! i pray it makes FTX crash look like a joke

Glass-Lifeguard1919

This is simply my opinion, and no professional... I think the reason we didnt see an alt season is because of the fed monetary policy that we're in. The policy was closer to 2019's mini cycle than it was any of the prior bull cycles. That policy will change soon. They will start cutting rates & they will start printing money. I honestly think the next bull cycle we have in those conditions will actually see a better alt season. However, with that being said, the alt seasons of the past didn't have the competition that's here today. You have politicians making meme coins. You have influencers making meme coins. The market is greatly diluted. There just isnt enough money going around to see crazy blow off peaks on every single coin anymore. You have pump & dump scams, market manipulations, fraud crypto companies like Celsuis & FTX making news with their ceos getting sent to prison. The whole altcoin space feels scummy to most retail traders and virtually all institutional traders. Then you have actual use case for most of these coins. DOT for instance, has a use case but NO USERS. Nobody is using DOT and up until Sept of this year they were steady issuing more coins. I mention all that to say this: In order for DOT to see any meaningful rally, BTC will have to rally to all time highs first. The risk to return is too high to keep holding DOT. You would be better off converting back to BTC and waiting for BTC to rally again. In the next big rally if you want to go back into DOT when risk is lower, that's your prerogative. I personally transferred all my DOT into BTC years ago (at a 40% loss at the time I might add,) and it obviously saved me losing another 55%... DOT, like most other coins with no use case, is going to zero.

diradder

They don't need to, they can remember FTX, and the next generation will remember another CEX scamming them/bankrupting... you know what's the constant there? CEXs... exactly what OP's trying to pretend is the better alternative. Go figure. Same for his "dirty funds", probably went gambling in a jurisdiction where it's forbidden and attempted to go back to fiat with their funds... and they blame "self-custody", when doing this straight from a CEX would have given exactly the same result. I've been practicing self-custody for over a decade and I haven't lost a single sat this way, the only sats that were lost is the dust I left on an exchange that failed (Cubits). Again, the same constant.

Daryltang

That’s why I only use FTX, Celsius and I’ll throw my rest of BTC in Mt. Gox for long term storage, it’s the biggest and nothing could ever go wrong!

MasterofPenguin

And still remembered the password to Your wallet, your family didn’t throw away your hard-drive, and it survived being stored in the attic. And you didn’t store it in FTX, etc.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Such_String_5464 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1pa04us/the_crypto_lie_selfcustody_is_a_disaster_for_95/ Let's be real. The "Not Your Keys" mantra is a liability for most. Human error (lost seeds, wrong addresses, phishers) causes more permanent loss than any major exchange hack ever did. 1. Human Error Risk: One mistake in self-custody = money GONE FOREVER (no recourse). CEXs offer password recovery and customer support. 2. Safety & Regulation: Post-FTX, regulated CEXs are insured, accountable, and often more trustworthy than your own security skills. 3. Toxic Funds Risk (AML Contamination). I got burned by this myself. I had a transfer hit my Trust Wallet, and only 2% of those coins turned out to be 'toxic' (linked to a scam). Because of that tiny 2%, another service FROZE THE WHOLE AMOUNT. I lost almost $4,000. Don't make my mistake! If you use wallets, always run an AML check on incoming coins. I use https://btcost.com because it is free. 4. DeFi Minefield: The average user cannot vet smart contracts. CEXs keep you safe from rug pulls and complex scams designed to exploit novices. Prioritize wealth preservation over ideological purity. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

haochizzle

FTX, quadriga, bybit 2025 $1.5 billion hack... even CeDeFi like blockFi nd celsius. does more really need to be said? you're pointing at an education and literacy problem.

tungfa

Ja sure - i “self custody” since ages and survived - Mt Gox, Mintpal, Bitfinex, Celsius, FTX, ….. ! So everybody forgot AGAIN what can happen if ; ( same old shit …. educate yourself - be extra safe - if u think none of these Hacks and Exit Scams can happen now (“oh it’s a new area , they are all regulated by now”) think again ; )

noviwu97

People in crypto have the memory of gold fish. Most already forgotten that FTX was #2 biggest exchange. Not a single soul outside of FTX thought they're insolvent until they froze withdrawal and admitted it. Bybit, the new #2 exchange, was also on the brink of destruction when they got hacked for $1.5B+. 

002_timmy

Found the FTX bot

LifeisDankiThink

I mean after the FTX exchange situation, you really think that’s the best option?

GiaDuddy

Remember how good FTX was? Fuck outta here

HSuke

I'm sure they remember FTX Even so, I think Coinbase and Kraken are safe enough, and ETFs are probably even safer. I trust them more than I trust random crypto holders.

SetMood

"CEXs are safer" - tell that to FTX users who lost everything. Mt. Gox. Celsius. Voyager. All "regulated and trustworthy" until they weren't. You're basically saying "I'm too lazy to learn self-custody so everyone else should risk their money on exchanges too." Hardware wallets aren't rocket science - buy a Ledger, write down 24 words, don't be an idiot. That's it. The irony of saying "users can't vet smart contracts" while trusting a CEX is hilarious. You think the average person can audit whether Binance is lending out their crypto or cooking their books? At least with self-custody, the only person who can screw you is YOU. Keep small amounts on exchanges for trading. Everything else goes to cold storage. This isn't complicated.

ExpertLocality

Self custody isn’t the problem, user education is. Blaming the tool because people don’t know how to use it is peak nanny state energy. You wouldn’t tell people don’t drive, most crashes are human error, stick to public transit forever, and while regulated CEXs are better than the FTX clown show era, they still freeze accounts, follow political winds, and fail quietly. Even polymarket users hedge every major regulatory announcement because custody risk never disappears; it just moves. Freedom is messy so is self custody

ZephyrXBT

"post ftx" loool, there was regulations before FTX, nothing really changed in term of security after.

aceofangel

Even for FTX the 'excess' is going to creditors.

Aidenried

Feels like we've heard this "once in a lifetime opportunity" narrative several times in the last few years. COVID, the 2022 crash, post-FTX collapse, and now again. While I agree the risk-reward looks decent with the halving and potential ETFs, remember that analysts always frame current conditions as "unprecedented." The truth is, asymmetric opportunity exists in both directions. What specific metrics are they using to quantify this asymmetry? Usually worth digging deeper than the headline.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Bitcoin is currently experiencing a significant 'asymmetric risk-reward' scenario, similar to the conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe. He suggests that Bitcoin's price reflects a bearish global growth outlook, including factors like quantitative tightening and the FTX collapse. Despite recent price drops, analysts predict a potential rebound, with some expecting Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 and possibly reach new all-time highs by the end of the year. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

OutlandishnessLimp25

Depends which exchange. Coinbase and River I think you’ll be ok. That said, I don’t leave Bitcoin on exchanges longer than I have to, I always send to cold wallets. Exchanges work until they don’t and then you’re screwed. Nobody wanted their money tied up in a legal battle. Just ask anyone who had money with FTX (I did not) but that money was tied up in court for years…and the real “work” of owning Bitcoin is waiting for time to pass, imagine the time passes, but then you don’t get the reward, that’s what happened to FTX holders. They got their bitcoin back at the USD price it was confiscated at (plus some interest) , not at the higher price it was worth. At the time of FTX's bankruptcy filing on November 11, 2022, 1 BTC was worth approximately $17,034 USD (based on the closing price that day). Under the confirmed FTX bankruptcy repayment plan (effective January 3, 2025), non-governmental creditors—including those with BTC claims—are entitled to 100% of their allowed claim value (pegged to the USD equivalent of their holdings as of the November 2022 petition date) plus interest, totaling 119% of the original claim amount for 98% of eligible creditors. This equates to a repayment of approximately $20,271 USD for a 1 BTC claim. Distributions began in early 2025 and have continued in phases (e.g., a third round of $1.6 billion started September 30, 2025), with most creditors expected to receive full payouts by the end of 2025 or early 2026. Note that while the plan prioritizes USD-equivalent recoveries, some creditors may opt for distributions in crypto assets at prevailing market values, but the baseline recovery remains tied to the 2022 USD valuation plus interest.

ImNitefall

While you're learning, consider this: "Not your keys, not your coins" is a core crypto principle. Exchanges can fail (FTX, Mt. Gox), freeze assets, or get hacked. The risk depends on the exchange's reputation and your amount invested. For beginners, consider: - Using established exchanges with insurance (Coinbase, Gemini) - Enabling all security features (2FA, whitelisting) - Having a timeline to move to self-custody - Starting with a small hardware wallet purchase to practice Even a basic hardware wallet is significantly safer than any exchange for long-term holding.

kodymcclurg

**Conversational** Happy 4-year anniversary! It's amazing to look back and see your journey through a full cycle. That sailing boat purchase sounds like the perfect reward - sometimes using a bit of profit for something that brings joy is the best investment. Your self-custody evolution resonates with me. I went through something similar after the FTX collapse scared me straight. The peace of mind is worth more than any yield could pay. That 45% annual ROI must feel satisfying! Did you stick with regular DCA throughout or adjust your strategy during the bear market? I found myself getting more aggressive with purchases as we went below 20K. Also curious - what hardware wallet setup did you en

Be_Me_Anon_irl

Mt. GOX & FTX say...bitch please...

Mosiera01

I think five years feels light considering the scale of damage caused by the Terra/Luna collapse. While Do Kwon's case is complex, it's worth noting that billions were wiped out in that crash, and it triggered a devastating chain reaction across the entire crypto ecosystem. For context, Sam Bankman-Fried got 25 years for FTX's collapse. Though their situations differ (SBF was convicted of fraud and conspiracy), it's interesting to see the disparity in sentences being discussed for major crypto failures. The aftermath of Terra/Luna is still being felt today. Many retail investors lost life savings, and several companies like Celsius and Voyager were pushed into bankruptcy after exposure to

JustKiddingDude

EU regulations are a joke until something like FTX happens. Then everyone is shockedpikachuface and wonders how this could have happened.

TranslatorFine

The ones who manipulated the price this low are in regret. They allowed us retail investors stack more cheap sats. Same deal when they plummeted price spreading FUD during FTX collapse and COVID lockdown

holdmysugar

Tether's accounting and practices have been questionable for so long now... I was surprised it survived all of the runs after the FTX collapse. That did show some resilience.

byG-21

It’s all too late and over. I had the thought back then during the FTX crash, when BTC was at 18k… I was close, but I didn’t want to commit. Pretty stupid. How am I supposed to get in at 60?

amyo_b

Now, be fair, Celsius and Voyager also had a hand in that. And Luna the iceberg that sank them (except FTX that appears to have been pure criminality)

KryptoSC

I believe your investment thesis is flawed, mainly due to the regime shift in the Bitcoin markets. Now that institutions and traders can utilize options, futures, and can short Bitcoin (especially via IBIT) it will prevent the extreme volatility swings. Reaching 50k is highly unlikely, in fact I think reaching 70k is also very unlikely without a large FTX-style collapsing event, such as Strategy being forced to sell half their Bitcoins. I think a better approach would be to DCA when the Fear/Greed Index drops below 20.

Alfador8

They survived the FTX pukening and BTC drop to $15k. What *will* kill them?

WeddingPKM

Hard disagree. This probably won’t be what gets them but a company like that is doomed. The crypto world attracts companies like FTX, and tether is no different.

SignificanceThis1265

FTX destroyed trust in crypto forevet

Life_Soft_3547

I'm still surprised he even got the sentence he did. Part of his scheme involved US aid money to Ukraine filtering back into FTX and then back to US politicians via campaign donations. It was a giant money laundering scheme and it's a miracle he wasn't let off the hook considering who benefitted.

MoreAlikeThanUThink

Damn, where shall I start? 1. “Bank lends at 10–12%, gives me 4% – I’m paying them to make money off me” Basic misunderstanding of what a deposit is. • Banks don’t lend “your” exact money at 10–12% and pocket the difference. Their balance sheet is a mix of: • Low-yield government bonds • Mortgages at 3–7% • Corporate/consumer loans at a range of rates • Reserves that earn close to 0–base • Out of the gross yield they must cover: • Capital requirements and liquidity buffers • Staff, branches, tech, compliance • Credit losses and defaults • Deposit insurance premiums • The spread between loan yield and deposit rate is the price you pay for: • Instant liquidity • Near-zero default risk (below insured limits) • Payment rails (cards, transfers, etc.) A current/savings account is not an “investment product”. It’s a low-risk liquidity service. 2. “Inflation 7%, bank 4% → I’m losing 3%, so I’m paying the bank” Yes, cash in the bank has a negative real return when inflation > interest. That part is true but incomplete. You skipped the key question: What is the money for? • For emergency fund / short-term expenses: negative real return is the fee you pay for: • Liquidity on demand • Very low probability of nominal loss • For long-term growth: cash is the wrong tool entirely. You move that into diversified risk assets (equities, bonds, etc.), not DeFi yield farms with opaque risk. You’re blaming the bank for using the wrong instrument for the job. 3. “DeFi apps give 8–10% so ‘actually’ +2–4% after inflation” This is the biggest error: treating DeFi yield as if it’s risk-free like a savings account. To get those 8–10%, you are usually taking: • Smart contract risk – code bugs, hacks, oracle failures. One exploit and you’re at –100%. • Protocol/ponzi risk – many yields are funded by: • Token emissions with no sustainable cashflow • New depositors subsidising old ones (Terra/Anchor was the poster child) • Market risk – yield often paid in volatile tokens or requires you to hold volatile collateral. A 10% yield is meaningless if the token drops 60%. • Liquidity and exit risk – in stress events, liquidity vanishes and “stable” yields vanish with it. 8–10% is not “free real yield”; it’s payment for taking very real default and tail risk. On a risk-adjusted basis, that 8–10% is often terrible. Comparing 4% insured bank interest to 10% DeFi yield is like comparing a government bond to a junk micro-cap meme stock and whining the bond “only” yields less. 4. “Banks aren’t safe – look at 2008, SVB, Signature, First Republic” You’re cherry-picking without looking at outcomes for ordinary depositors. • In developed markets, small depositors are: • Protected by deposit insurance (e.g. FSCS/FDIC up to a set limit) • Further backstopped by central banks and resolution regimes • In 2008 and in the 2023 US bank failures, depositors under insured limits were made whole. Equity and junior debt holders got destroyed. That’s the point of the capital structure. Contrast with DeFi/CeFi blow-ups: • Terra/UST, Celsius, Voyager, BlockFi, FTX, etc.: many retail users experienced: • Frozen withdrawals • Haircuts or 100% loss • No insurance, no lender of last resort, no legal recourse that actually makes them whole So yes, banks can fail – but the system is explicitly designed to socialise deposit risk. DeFi is “you’re on your own”. You claim banks “pretend there are no risks”. In reality, the whole regulatory and capital framework exists because those risks are acknowledged and managed. 5. “At least in DeFi I know the risks” No, you don’t. That’s overconfidence bias. Most people in DeFi cannot: • Read or audit Solidity/Rust contracts • Model collateral contagion and liquidity cascades • Assess oracle manipulation or governance take-over risk You“feel” like you know the risks because you see a number on a UI labelled “APY”. That is not risk quantification; it’s marketing. Ironically, bank risk is far more transparent: • Capital ratios, stress tests, regulatory filings, ratings. • Clear, legally enforceable deposit insurance limits. DeFi often hides risk in complex mechanisms that even many builders mis-price. 6. False binary: “Bank vs DeFi” You frame it as: • Bank = low yield, “pretend safe” • DeFi = high yield, “honest risk” The rational framing is: • Cash in bank: for short-term needs and emergency fund. Maxim: protect nominal value and liquidity, accept some inflation drag. • Long-term growth: diversified portfolio (equities, bonds, real assets, maybe a small crypto allocation) in regulated products. • Speculation / high-risk yield: small, capped allocation if you understand the tech and accept the probability of large drawdowns or total loss. DeFi is, at best, in that last bucket. Using it as a substitute for your basic cash savings is mis-sizing risk, not being clever. To summarise it, you’re comparing insured cash in a regulated bank (a safety/liquidity tool) with un-insured, smart-contract- and ponzi-risk DeFi yield (a speculative product), pretending they’re the same asset. Once you actually price default and tail risk, your 8–10% DeFi APY isn’t a free +2–4% over inflation – it’s just a lottery ticket with better branding.

Ikki_The_Phoenix

No your keys no your coins. Not leaving my money on a cex. The FTX collapse is a remnant of it.

Silasurf

FTX sma bankman and Celsius are much better 😉

TooLateQ_Q

The Twitter account is managed by a friend. https://x.com/SBF_FTX

wiredmagazine

Two years after he was found guilty of fraud, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is pursuing a legal appeal—and firing up his X account. Read the full article: [https://www.wired.com/story/sam-bankman-fried-goes-on-the-offensive/](https://www.wired.com/story/sam-bankman-fried-goes-on-the-offensive/)

AshamedTelevision676

It’s akin to very expensive and very volatile AIR Last one holding the bag pays the price of losing all their money like FTX. Its hype market for losers 😂😂😂😂

Boring-Bus-3743

Even easier is just stake with coinbase. They are regulated and secure enough to custody ETF funds. Makes it a lot better than FTX and BlockFi lol

Boring-Bus-3743

Even easier is just stake with coinbase. They are regulated and secure enough to custody ETF funds. Makes it a lot better than FTX and BlockFi lol

Boring-Bus-3743

Even easier is just stake with coinbase. They are regulated and secure enough to custody ETF funds. Makes it a lot better than FTX and BlockFi lol

LightninHooker

Saylor infinite money glitch will work until it doesn't. The other DATs are all cooked already, dead men walking. Ignore this Max and JP whatever, DATs are the FTX of this cycle

Aggressive_Spell2314

Can you wait till the bear market? I didn’t DCA but just bought in big chucks during the FTX collapse and the bear market following year. I do both hard wallet and ETF. They both have pros and cons.

HartbrakeFL21

We did have a couple of large casualties the last time we crashed down (2022, FTX, BlockFi, largest among them).  If we get low enough, first, BUY, second, I can see some peripheral failures again.

Notrustjustverify

Can you elaborate more on "None of the cold wallets seem completely safe?" And regarding reputable exchanges, exchanges like FTX and MtGox were also very reputable until they collapsed, exchanges are also a common target for hackers as they know their is a lot of bitcoin in them. Besides, as I said personally I like to have my money under my control and self custody allows just that.

justasalad185

I think you’re forgetting one big detail! In 2022, BTC only pulled down to -73% before the FTX collapse. That changes how you should look at things. This paints more of a ‘diminishing losses pattern in which I wouldn’t expect an 80% draw down again. I think it would then be safer to assume that unless we see a black swan event or a global market crash, 70% would be the lowest we go at $38,000. So I generally agree with you, but I think it is wise to recognize the pattern and even prepare for something as mild as 60% at ~50k. That is double true because we didn’t peak (currently) in euphoria. It really depends where we’re looking to buy in though. I’d pay close attention starting in May, eyeing for your September/October area as the likely low!

vb90

No, we had the narrative that crypto would change the financial system, tech and even society as a whole in a few years. (at that time). Along with helicopter money to make the lay man dump some cash into that whole idea. FTX/Gemini/Voyager ensued along with a lot of grifters flaunting dumping on retail like it was a Cambodian monsoon. So the picture you're trying to paint has nothing to do with reality. China for example is continuously printing and non one gives a shit.

MakCapital

Should definitely be stacking the largest pullbacks. Low 80s was a first great entry, but at the same time it can easily pullback to the 30s. No one knows for certain so just buy the major areas of support and thank the market for giving such great opportunities on an asset that will eventually become the most valuable asset on earth. Buy when hard assets drop. Take some profits when they make new highs. Very simple, but people are completely driven by emotion. Narrative follows price. Always. No one talked about Microstrategy losing index exposure until AFTER price started down trending. Microstrategy or quantum or whatever other bear distraction is simply the next Mt Gox or FTX to fear. There's always a Boogeyman. Ignore the news and just buy the largest discounts. Get more excited as price runs lower.

Romanizer

Lower than at the bottom, though it was briefly below today's value some days before FTX collapsed finally. In general the fear index is much lower than it would be usual for the beginning of a bear market where everyone is still optimistic.

the_bueg

That's a dumb comment. OP's criticisms are legitimate. > stop pretending decentralization matters WTF. Some people remember FTX, Mt. Gox, ACX, Quadriga... and on and on in a nearly endless list depending on how much lost capital you stop counting. And some people also like to own their own coins, not a fractional reserve database entry where your investment is last in line in their chapter 7 proceedings. If *YOU* don't care, hey that's your business and you do you. But to turn your own words around, "stop pretending decentralization doesn't matter". A more valid rebuttal to OP may be that the problems he is expressing is inherent to the very notion of decentralized finance. But many smart people are working on it, and there are many ways that average people can help.

CryptoMemesLOL

Are they leveraged at all? The real issue with those funds is when they don't have enough collateral and need to sell, this can create contagion like with FTX.

110010010011

Miners have always been selling. That’s how they pay for mining. The profit margin is non-existent or slim so the majority of the BTC mined needs to be sold to cover the overhead. But given how low the block reward is now, there is very few freshly mined BTC being sold each day relative to the rest of the market. It’s retail panic that’s powering this drop, same as always. Sure, there have been major catalysts in the past like the Mt Gox hack, the China bans, and the FTX collapse. What’s different this time is we’re not seeing such an obvious cause (yet) other than “by now in the four year cycle, Bitcoin has always peaked.”

dmbveloveneto

That would make sense considering it was the worst weekly candle in BTC’s history.  This is a BTC sub where everyone will circlejerk about it. In reality you need to start asking what other catalyst will move the needle here.  BTC and the broader crypto market has never recovered from the reputational damage of FTX and becoming engulfed in politics has only made it more polarizing. Pre-2022 there was broad curiosity in BTC. There was genuine excitement. Now ppl either wholeheartedly believe in it, or just think it’s radioactive and will never touch it. Even when BTC broke ATH’s, it never had the same buzz around it that it did pre-FTX. Additionally, there’s a growing chorus of concern around the ramifications that quantum computers will have. The inflection point is closer than most people realize. BTC needs quantum-proof cryptography yesterday because the concept will destroy its value well before it actually breaks anyone’s seed phrase. If you still believe in the four-year cycle, you would sell now because quantum computing will likely be able to break a seed phrase before the next cycle top.  So you need to ask yourself where you expect new money to come from, because the ppl who love it are already heavily invested, and those who don’t likely will never consider it. 

Captain_Fredl

The lowest was FTX with 11🤣

harvested

You deleted your other post so I'll reply here: Oh okay, the halving. Is that what caused the pump in 2021 and the brutal drop after? I guess it roughly aligns with a 4 year time frame so it must be. It definitely wouldn't have anything to do with the money supply increasing 40% almost overnight, interest rates going to zero. All risk assets pumping (see: ARK funds, tech stocks). Followed by the fed signaling and executing the most rapid interest rate rise in history, balance sheet tightening (QT) that has remained til today. Which then triggered brutal unwinds of some very sketchy funds, exchanges (FTX, 3ac, etc) which made bottom deeper. But if it was, you would see ARK, GOOG etc drop too and enter a multi year bear market right? Oh what's that? They did do that? Hmm. Yes it must be the halving.

Willing_Juggernaut10

Nice, this is a fairly reasonable explanation for what's going on. The patterns were especially obvious the last couple of weeks, when btc would dump 2-3% when the US markets opened. Almost linear dumps, with no sign of support at any levels. I couldn't for the life of me figure out what was going on lol. Just when everyone thought we'd never get another FTX, we get this at the worst time possible. I wonder how much longer the selling will continue. Even more than that, I worry how the market will react when this matter finally comes to light. Probably another wave of panic selling. Let's hope for the best!

Awkward_Potential_

Yeah, you're not really missing anything. I remember after FTX, I'd buy a little at 30k, then 25k, then near the bottom, then buy more on the way up. You always feel like a fool buying and watching it go further down. It doesn't matter. It's an accumulation game. Just keep acquiring.

anon83818

No, it’s not real. If it was, then November 7, 2022 should have been the 2022 ATL. But FTX imploded *after* November 7, 2022, and BTC’s price fell from around ~$20k to $15.5k, which is a 25% downturn. A trading using this pattern with 2x leverage would lose 50% of their capital. A trader using this pattern with 4× leverage in 2022 would have been liquidated. The fact that the models breaks massively during a real-world stress event is the strongest possible evidence that it’s not reliable and is useless for forecasting. Timing the market is a fool’s errand. Relying on historical patterns, numerology, or dubious limited-cycle theories like this 4chan post (especially for a young asset like BTC) ignores the reality that markets are driven by unpredictable real-world, exogenous events.

Potential_Dealer_202

Everyone should read it. This feels so right about this. I have even seen so many comments on here that said "No crash, no FTX-like, No major thing?" And I agree with questioning that, because it felt odd. This would explain it, the same time-stamps everyday totally shocked me. The same shit, because by watching Bitcoin at US Market open for these last days it really felt like You can already guess what is about to happen in the same patterns, and it happened violently. Right now I am so curious what entity/fund/group did this, because no moves at Coinbase and big at Binance is interesting. Of course there is really optimistic info about reverse, so my bullish side feels great.

b1mm3rl1f3

F&G at 6, WORSE than covid19 or FTX. BTC down -36% from ATH with 3D RSI lowest since 2022 at $18K BTC. I'm no Grant Cardone but MM just gave me the greatest gift of all this holiday season

Budget_Eye5861

WOW - to your post - no it doesn't I buy into crypto so I can live freely 100% of my funds are in crypto in some way Well not right now because I live by the cycle Something you are not going to understand I've not worked in almost 5 full years come this FEB 2026 There is no place else can I make this kind of money and do nothing but want I want to do, daily. I got cash for the next (2) years for my basic needs - and that's only 16% of the total I started with $50 back in 2013 and I've never been more financially stable Paid off Students loans in 2017 Lost $431,000 USD to Luna and FTX in 2022 Bought 2026 Crysler Pacifica Limited AWD in 2025 and As I previously mentioned, banked (2) years of cash to live on for the next (2) years. I mean............... what else is there to

Recordeal7

I’m down 119k from this year’s ATH. Still up 87k overall. The FTX/Luna crash was WAY worse than this.

OkZucchini5351

No it isn't. This crash is scandal-free so far. It's not like in 2021 when we had FTX, Terra Luna, Celsius and BlockFi all rugging and damaging the public image of crypto.

VisiblePlatform6704

My main concern right now is that, we haven't seen the "black swan" event like in past crypto downturns. For example,  the very first one was MtGox hack, then you got , Celcius/3AC, terra/luna, SVB, FTX, to name a few.  Those events triggered mayor sellout. And they happened due to reduced liquidity.   But we haven't seen any of that YET this cycle. Which means that when it happens, things will get messier. 

Peter4real

Mjeh, 2021 was crazier. Luna and FTX really did most people dirty. Now I just see it in parallel to general macro economics trends signalling a downturn in all markets. 2026 and 2027 is going to suck for a lot of people.