FTX

Educational_Cable405

Crypto already ran the esports experiment and it left a crater. FTX paid TSM 210 million for a ten year naming deal in 2021, Crypto.com signed Fnatic, Coinbase was plastered all over ESL events. Two years later the orgs were doing mass layoffs, TSM scrubbed the FTX name off everything, and the deals died in bankruptcy court. People aren't sleeping on esports, they watched the last cycle's money set itself on fire there.

futures_cj

The headlines aren’t even as bad as past cycles. 21-22 people were absolutely certain it was dead with regulation fears and the FTX collapse. Now it’s dead because of AI lol

aaj094

Inability to understand what I said is why people can't understand why FTX saga didn't make bitcoin die. It's because people change life stages, new people come into age brackets, world moves on. Nothing just rests on one sentiment of a point of time.

futures_cj

I remember 2021-22 when everyone was certain it was dead. FTX collapse, crypto fraud and regulation fears. Headlines were much worse than during this drop. Yet here we are again. This time not even as severe. The drops are getting smaller percentage wise each time. First around 85%, then 84%, then 77% and currently as much as 53%. Based off that I’d say 65 to 70% could be the bottom before it repeats the same cycle again.

diwalost

I think he should also file criminal suit against victims of FTX crash.. /s

Patient_Craft2195

It really depends on your location. For those in the US, you should choose Coinbase Advanced over the normal Coinbase. The fees drop from 3.74% to 0.6% for the same exact trade. This is low key a secret and a lot of people don’t even know that. When it comes to Robinhood, you should be careful for self-custody. Some plans don’t let you withdraw to your own wallet and you should definitely be avoiding the exchanges that have an “earn” that give you 8-10% APY. Half of those exchanges have blown up (FTX, Celsius, Voyager, and WazirX, which got hacked ). If you’re not located in the US, which country you live in is super important. If you drop your country, people will be able to give more specific and insightful responses.

mel2000

> btc tanked to 16k after the FTX collapse. BTC also went over 120K after the FTX collapse.

crunchyeyeball

How can you have multiple "all time" *lows* (ATL)? I see these same figures posted over & over again, but has anyone ever taken the time to *check* them? This being being a bitcoin sub, I say "***don't trust, verify***". E.g., Just looking at the most recent high & low, and a little googling: > The *lowest price of Bitcoin in 2022* was $15,760.19, which was recorded on ***November 21st, 2022***. This sharp decline followed a volatile year for the cryptocurrency market and the collapse of the FTX exchange. > Bitcoin reached its *highest price* on ***October 6, 2025*** when it hit an all-time high of $126,198.07 There are exactly **1,050 days** between November 21, 2022 and October 6, 2025.

Whole_Historian_7185

Stratagey is in a tough position. The STRC flywheel has become a $120M/month burden. Even though Strategy will probably get through this winter, what if they blew up? mt.gox and FTX did not destroy bitcoin... they just gave the rest of us better buying opertunities.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Interesting fact, the RSI for Bitcoin had dropped and was already getting into oversold territory before the FTX/Luna crash. Which made TA believe that it was a great time to buy for a bounce back.

ScooterMcWTF

Coinbase timeline has a 300k jump when I bought LUNA at 2am then went to sleep 😃. Yes, it was during the FTX fiasco. Had a great sleep though lol.

Educational_Cable405

The part people skip is that every dip shows up wearing a reason. March 2020 was 'the world is ending', late 2022 was 'FTX blew up, crypto is dead'. The fear is never some vague feeling, theres always a headline telling you this time its actually different. Thats the whole point of DCA imo, it doesnt require you to be brave on the scariest day.

Rube777

Lmao, btc tanked to 16k after the FTX collapse. What planet are you on

DankShibe

Ukraine war and FTX collapse

fan_of_hakiksexydays

People always talk about MSTR and STRC being a potential black swan event. But there's actually a lot of other crypto-heavy companies, plus sovereign funds, and crypto heavy funds. There's a lot more defi this time around, crypto lending, and crypto banking that could come under heavy strain. Along with a ton of projects, alt coins, stablecoins, etc... that are taking a huge brunt right now. And all these things aren't isolated in a vaccum. We could see a domino effect of multiple collapses. That's why I don't think this time around the bear market black swan is just gonna be limited to just 3 things like when we had the Luna, FTX, Voyager combo. We could have a much bigger combo this time.

IceSea192

SBF isn't just a bad apple; he is the inevitable result of centralized, custodial finance. The entire system is built on fractional reserve illusions. This is exactly why the only real exit protocol is aggressive self-custody. If it's not sitting on a physical hardware device that you control, it's just an IOU waiting to be evaporated by the next FTX. I did a deep-dive breakdown on how his architecture of fraud perfectly highlights the need for a decentralized baseline here: https://youtu.be/0zdSHvjHiss?is=OuW9STOzwE0fVlYR

Subject-Chest-8343

It also did in 2022, at the time of the FTX collapse. That's why it's so weird we're seeing it now, with no FTX and the stock market at ATH

Whole_Historian_7185

Fail?! are you kidding? mtGox and FTX didn't cause bitcoin to fail. In retrospect both events provided a great buying oppotunities IF ( and that's a big if) Strategy were to sell significant bitcion this crypto winter would be extended allowing people like to to aquire more sats for our money. Long live the winter. There will be another summer

TK_Eternal

Yes, it was way more fun when crypto firms like FTX, Three Arrows, Celsius, and Voyager tried their hand at banking and defi, lol.

ChangeHeroOfficial

FTX was a dark chapter for the industry, we stand firmly for transparency and accountability

thinktobreath

Let's basically clone Hawk Tuah, make a world liberty token scam like FTX, and promote the masses to legally predict (gamble) my next scam. 

tenor_tymir

BTC is too big and important to corporations. they’ll buy it all up in a heartbeat if it really went that low. As disastrous FTX was, all it did was create a very good buying opportunity and a massive bull run from 15k to 124k. I believe the harder BTC falls the higher the next top will be. I don’t think you’ll be able to 10x your money but 5x can still be possible if you manage to time the cycle low perfectly (provided there’s a black swan event like FTX).

fueltheburns

People are more likely to lose money by buying crypto. Bitcoiners on the other hand understand the value of self custody. Just look what happened to Mt Gox, BlockFi, Celsius, FTX, etc. Someday it may be Coinbase and I will be there to buy the cheap sats.

sideshowsito

When FTX crashed in Nov 2022 and it went to the next ATH ( oct 2025 ) …. it took 35 months . Just keep buying

Rare-Quantity5503

Never believe new twitter accounts like this. One made in 2022 and one in 2025. If you base sentiment on people larping, you’ll crash and burn pretty quickly. Also their points are personal. Nothing really to do with the market IMO. Luna and FTX were worse IMO - the sentiment was that the system had failed. Before that it was that we hadn’t made it, or that we didn’t reach the goal. But the FTX Luna situation was on of, we made it, we went really mainstream and then we fucked it up.

Educational_Cable405

Fear at 12 mostly means the people who bought the top are sweating. I set my buys to auto about a year ago so I'd stop refreshing this number, and it's honestly been the best thing for my sanity. Last time it sat sub 15 was around the FTX blowup, and that ended up being one of the better entries I got.

xarips

> Many of the big alts are dropping BELOW their low ranges of the 2022/2023 bear market, lower than even where they were after the collapse of FTX. they are all much lower than that and have been for ages

LayWhere

Also 2017 and agree completely. Luna/FTX scandals killed people appetite for alts, AI stealing the limelight for speculative greed and the whitehouse rugging $trumpcoin doesn't help either. The reason alt appetite didn't completely die in previous cycles was because the market was smaller and not in the mainstream eye, not at the scale of 2021 anyway. BTC is being killed by Saylor imo, with his infinite loop ponzinomics.

Friendly-Direction42

Got used to this at this point, also experienced LUNA FTX etc

AJSE2020

Past performance is not indictor for future results The the price could end up to 30k … Just immgine MSTR getting squeezed FTX collapse and luna collapsing Would look like a joke in comparison

ubermensch1001

What you are seeing right now is a very rare event in the crypto space. 2018 and 2022 do not really compare to this, I remember both. However, the COVID crash of March 2020 and I'd also say the 10/10 crash last year are more comparable. I saw earlier that the RSI on ETH was at historic lows, despite this it's actually still holding fairly strong right now above $1500. Other alts though are getting absolutely destroyed and many are BELOW their lows of the post FTX fallout, which is insane. This will eventually stabilize, but until then enjoy the show and consider accumulating here.

FKNLE63ND

Hardware wallet/ cold storage wallet. It’s a hardware device to store that holds the keys to your bitcoin but you’re in control. If the exchange you keep your btc goes bust (like FTX) your bitcoin goes with it. Check out Trezor , Blockstream Jade, Coldcard Q is the best imo but it’s a bit more advanced and not so beginner friendly. Depends on your skills tbh. Congrats again and good luck. And please make sure you don’t get scammed by emails from companies or something similar.

Excellent-Storm-5201

BTC sitting right around $60,750 and the 4-hour RSI is hitting extreme oversold levels at 15.4. Historically, the last time we saw readings this deeply oversold was during the capitulation phases of the FTX crash. While oversold conditions can certainly grind lower and stay extended if the daily ETF net outflows continue ($4.4B out in 13 days), historical data suggests these levels typically precede sharp, violent relief bounces due to shorts getting overcrowded. Key levels to watch right now: $60K acts as the major psychological and technical floor. A clean break below that opens the door straight to the $55K support cluster. On the flip side, any sudden reversal in ETF inflows could trigger a massive short squeeze given the current -22.8% OI drop and negative funding rates. Not financial advice, just watching the technicals and data points closely.

idontgiveafunyun

He might’ve meant 300W SMA. We briefly broke below it during the FTX crash. But the Covid crash hit right off it. That’s at about 55k right now I believe

Excellent-Storm-5201

BTC hitting $60,745 today with RSI at 15.4 — last time we saw readings this low was during the FTX crash. Historically these levels precede sharp relief bounces, but oversold can stay oversold while ETF outflows continue ($4.4B out in 13 days). Key levels to watch: $60K as major floor, break below opens $55K. On the flip side, any ETF inflow reversal could trigger a violent squeeze given the -22.8% OI drop and negative funding rate. Not financial advice, just watching the technicals closely.

saksit13429

Nah it's unlikely to drop 10k in a day unless there is catalyst event like FTX 2.0

ClearSnakewood

Saylor does not custody his coin, therefore he doesn’t own it (NYKNYC) Conbase does. And who knows what type of shady shit they’re doing with other people’s coin. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if fractional reserving it, just like FTX. And I think these ETF’s are shady players too. Self custody needs to be emphasized waaay more.

morerepsmoreproblems

You can tell who wasn’t here in 2022 when shit was really bad… the market nowadays offers able far more certainty than back then when Celsius and FTX went under it seems like everything was going to follow it recovered and broke new highs

ozera202

Every cycle has one major news at the final leg down to drop it low as it can , FTX , Mount GOX , Covid and now MSTR who was the biggest shill for btc now selling . I’m buying these fears , I have cash on the side 😈

gphie

I made my first small fortune in Bitcoin investing through the FTX collapse when people like YOU told me I was stupid for doing so. Go buy bonds if you're risk averse

A1JX52rentner

This only works if you can show the actual forced-selling mechanism. “BTC goes down, therefore MSTR must dump its Bitcoin” is not enough. Where is the margin call? Where is the covenant? Where is the redemption right that forces them to sell? MSTR is not FTX or Celsius. There are no depositors withdrawing coins. Most of the financing is long-dated equity/convertible/preferred capital. A falling BTC price can make the equity ugly, sure, but “ugly” is not the same thing as “automatic bankruptcy”. The bear case needs more than “empty box” rhetoric. It needs to explain the specific path from BTC drawdown → forced liquidation → insolvency. Otherwise you’re just saying “I don’t like the structure.”

Born-Public-3854

I have a youtube account that breaks down a bunch of finance crimes, heres the FTX video - [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU)

Born-Public-3854

I have a youtube account that breaks down a bunch of finance crimes, heres the FTX video - [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU)

Born-Public-3854

I have a youtube account that breaks down a bunch of finance crimes, heres the FTX video - [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NHhjRyXSvpU)

KiNg-MaK3R

I only bought one bitcoin when it was $3k. I bought more when it was $40k. I could have had 10x bigger of a stack than I have now. Still happy I understood bitcoin in time for the FTX crash though.

ozera202

Is MSTR going to be just like FTX …. If so shits going to get much worse . FML 🤦‍♂️

undeadkarlmarx

MSTR is in no way similar to FTX. It’s not holding other people’s coins; it can’t face a bank run scenario like FTX did, and either way there’s no real doubt that they actually have the 800k+ btc with coinbase. That said, it could be the GBTC of this cycle where the share price trades way below NAV for several months, so buying MSTR right now may not be the greatest idea, even if BTC itself is near bottom.

supper-dipper

My guy. Respect the conviction but you've got Luna/FTX PTSD and still going back in? That's either diamond balls or a gambling addiction lol. Jokes aside — no debt, no kids, simple life? That's literally the best position to take a swing. Worst case you're back to index funds. Best case you're retired early and annoying everyone at parties. Just don't go *so* balls deep you can't sleep when the next black swan hits. Because it will. It always does. Godspeed you beautiful degenerate.

Fair-Average5139

The next "FTX collapse" is probably Saylor and his "Strategy" going nuts

Tim-Rocket

>Last cycle we bottomed at around -33% from 200 WMA, I expect this cycle to, at least, revisit the 200 WMA. (Currently sitting at \~$58K) But, we've got to keep in mind, this time is actually different because of institutional players. But I do not know how this will play out. IMO there's 2 scenarios, on one hand we might not dump as much, because they (institutionals) are in it for a long term. On the other, we'd get a dump as we've never seen before, forget the Germany flash sale, forget FTX. If this happens we'll see what Buffet means with "blood on the streets". 200 WMA revisited. Alea jacta est. This summer seems to be readying up to be quite interesting. [Original comment.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1qjypcb/comment/o155aq1/) (Jan 22)

Simke11

This is nothing like FTX panic.

nachtraum

The panic looks like a bottom indicator. November 2022 was similar, Bitcoin went below 20k and people lost their sh*t. FTX just collapsed, people said we are done and it was sure it would go below 10k, said Saylor will be liquidated at 3k. But it went from there pretty much straight to over 120k. You never know, but panic selling is often one of the worst decisions. I will stack some more.

mypoopypencilhead

I completely agree. I’m as pure of a Bitcoin believer as possible but the reality is that the majority of retail and institutions are choosing to buy through the etf which allows banks to control how and when orders get executed. It seems the etf was pushed so hard by Blackrock etc for the same reasons Sam launched FTX, to control liquidity have a large pool to fill their shorts. A billion dollar inflow can have nearly no price impact now where before a billion dollars worth of spot buying would have an instant reaction. This dampens any upside while amplifying the downside. All of this is extremely concerning if we can’t figure out a way to fix it as Bitcoin no longer trades like a fixed supply asset. 

takinglifeslower

I get the comparison, but I’m a bit more cautious about mapping past crashes 1:1 onto current setups. In 2020 and post-FTX, the macro backdrop, liquidity, and sentiment shifts were pretty specific to those moments. Even if prices feel similar, the conditions driving them aren’t always the same. Could still be an opportunity zone, but it’s usually not as clean or “repeatable” as the COVID analogy makes it sounddd

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1tw8e2w/bitcoin_just_broke_a_trendline_that_has_held/ $1.35 billion in liquidations. 165 dormant wallets from 2011-2017 woke up last month and sold. The trendline that analysts have been watching for months finally gave way this week and it's worth being honest about what that means rather than either catastrophising or dismissing it. [BTC fell from just over $71,500 on June 1 to an intraday low of $65,362 on June 3. That's a 10% drop in under 72 hours.](https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-sinks-to-66346-as-1-35b-in-long-liquidations-accelerate-market-selloff/) The June 2 session alone saw $1.35 billion in liquidations, the largest single-day liquidation event of 2026. Long positions accounted for $767 million of that. Total crypto market cap dropped below $2.5 trillion for the first time since mid-April. The trendline that broke is the ascending log support that connects Bitcoin's major lows going back to 2012. It held through the 2018 bear market, through the 2020 COVID crash, through the 2022 FTX collapse. Every time BTC has broken below it historically it has entered a prolonged bear phase and every time it has recovered it has gone on to new highs. The last break below it was June 2022 when BTC was around $20K. The recovery from that took about eight months. The context around the break matters. Strategy's 32 BTC sale broke a four-year HODL streak and spooked the market more than the size of the sale warranted. ETFs have bled $2.43 billion in May alone, the worst monthly outflow of 2026. And on-chain data is flashing signals that have historically appeared near cycle lows, not at the start of them. CryptoQuant's MorenoDV specifically noted that his bottom indicator is approaching the zone that has marked every major BTC floor for over a decade, but isn't there yet. The other data point worth knowing: 165 previously dormant wallets moved 5,073 BTC in May. A wallet last active in August 2010 woke up and moved 20 BTC on May 31. A 2014 wallet moved 109 BTC on June 1. These are people who have been sitting on coins for 10-15 years finally taking profit. That's not manipulation or institutional rebalancing. That's the original believers cashing out into what they presumably think is a good enough price. Which is simultaneously a vote of confidence in Bitcoin's value journey and a source of real supply pressure. K33 Research is projecting lower volume and downward price drift through August. Canary Capital expects a 50-55% total peak-to-trough decline, which with BTC already down about 48% from $126K puts the low somewhere in the $60-65K range. Benjamin Cowen had October as his base case for the cycle bottom. None of that is guaranteed. But the trendline break is real and the historical context around it is not encouraging for the short term. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

CryptoDeepDive

Oh sweet sweet summer child. MSTR going belly upwould be orders of magnitude worse than FTX collapse. It's not even close

ClearSnakewood

This is why people need to withdraw their fucking coin from these ETF’s and exchanges into cold storage man. They’ll keep playing with us till we learn. The FTX style playbook is still alive. We need to organize an exchange run and run them dry. Or we’re forever fucked in these trading games.

Left_Entrepreneur918

Exactly, I caught the falling knife in 2022, big buys at 40k, 30k, 20k. Then yolo’d my inheritance the day after FTX crash. Now I just DCA

Knerd5

You’re making the assumption that wouldn’t have happened without the FTX collapse, which is impossible to know. In 2018 bitcoin held at $6k for like 6 months and still stabbed down to $4k in December. In both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets we ended up 25% or so under the 200wma so I think it’s wise to assume that will be approximately the case here too. Nobody can see the future but bitcoin is so cyclical used the past can be a helpful guide and since we’re already below it, it’s likely we keep drilling lower.

Subject-Chest-8343

Look at the chart though, the 2022 bottom would have been in well earlier if it wasn't for FTX. There could be a similar catalyst this year, but it's not guaranteed. The macro setup is different, stock market was down all of 2022, with tightening of the money supply. Now we have the stock market running wild and rates are expected to stay still. Things could play out a bit different. My base case is we stay above the 200wma. Which would mean bitcoin stays boring till year end, but the bottom's in.

Dziabadu

Omg! Who is going to sell in a proper recession if those lettuce hands sell now? I'm really worried for the bears. Imagine FTX collapsed but drawdown was unimpressive. Imagine the bear pain.

ClearSnakewood

Disagree. Why would a miner choose to mine at a loss? If it becomes unprofitable, temporarily turn off your machines then. As for all the OG’s and whales spam selling to completely offset all the “buying”, I find also very hard to believe. Daily volume is about $30-50B and more on volatile days, and I dont believe that’s just a bunch of Mt Gox and whales pressing the sell button for more than 1 year straight during a BEAR market. …What HAS ALSO happened before is FTX, BlockFi, Celsius and some other exchanges swimming naked and rigging the books. So my main argument for speculation is, if it HAS happened before, what would make us think it won’t happen again? There are also parties out there with huge incentives to do so. And if you’ve been around for a couple of cycles, then you know that Bitcoin and its ecosystem is not a happy fair and just industry. And many of these TradFi people dont like Bitcoin man, they want to see it dead. I believe we’re under attack.

BlazeDemBeatz

I did this. Same approach. Started in 2020. Kept buying thru the FTX crash. Kept buying. Hit 2025 and BTC hit 120k. Watched my account balloon and took profit. Rinse and repeat. It’s a lot easier than watching the charts and panicking.

That_Owl_9062

Macro sets the ceiling, liquidity sets the floor and 2022 had forced sell pressure on Luna, 3AC, FTX. This is just absence of buyers. Very different dynamic. I track using Crowdwisdom 360 what top funds actually hold vs what they say publicly and positioning looks nothing like a bear market.

cooltone

Have "Most people" set out a rationale as I have above. In log-log space the rate at which the price relaxes back to just above the red line is a straight line (roughly by eyeball), which means the time taken to reach just above the red line is shorter. This just means the ATH was lower, but the characteristic response of the network after the supply shock is consistent with previous cycles. Come back in 6 months time, tell me I'm wrong. The evidence will be clear 40-50k$ price reached (without an FTX type event of course). Then I will grovel appropriately to the fine members of this sub, if you do the same when the price continues to crab up the red line as it is now.

Amimir1992

Now should we cry? The only thing you should do right now is buy everything you can, every day, week or monthly. Here there is no time to regret it, The only thing that really matters is ¿how much Bitcoin you managed to accumulate to this day? I don't care if my friends have been accumulating for years, I don't care if Binance or Coinbase will suffer the same as FTX, I don't care about Michael Saylor and his company MicroStrategy. I try to earn a little more every month with overtime and my other income to buy everything I can. That's it.

cooltone

Zoom out with [this.](https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/) After an ATH drawdown the price will crab along, just above the red trend-line. This is the natural trajectory of bitcoin until something kicks it up off this line (halving impulse, ETF launch) or kicks it down (FTX). The drawdown isn't a kick down force, it is a removal/resolution of the kick up force. Ignore the green and purple trend-lines they are a distraction. Based on the above the most likely date the price will reach 100k$ is September, 2027.

baIIern

>I wonder if this is just the calm before the storm in the next cycle? Nobody can tell, but I've seen posts like yours during the last bears as well. People who are aboard for many years but lost trust during the FTX crisis. After that, BTC went up 8x (ish) again

AttemptKitchen

Everyone in CT has been talking about the 4 years cycle since months ago. in 2022 most people didn't believe in the 4 years cycle and said that the Bear Market was caused because macro economics, rate hikes, stocks dumping etc. also black swan events like TerraLuna and FTX collapse. But this time around everyone is aware of it because the 4 years cycle is the only reason they given to this Bear Market.

Traditional-Fan-9315

How? FTX stole money. Saylor is just infinite money glitching his way into Bitcoin hegemony.

WhaleWilliam

The buy and sell pressure now days is so strong it has stabilized the price greatly. A crash like FTX wouldn't have the same effect on Bitcoin today as it did back then. Also anyone who tries to sell their entire stack too quickly will loose money from decreasing the price of they continue to sell at low prices. The larger the pot to longer it takes for the transaction to complete to avoid slippage loss

Tasty_Action5073

Dude! Saylor and Strategy are the FTX of 2026 😂

whetherwhether

Didn't think Saylor selling 32 BTC would be this cycle's FTX.

ClearSnakewood

Then where’s all that extreme selling pressure coming from? Someone’s cooking the books heavy… 10x FTX’s power-level. There’s NO fucking way the selling from the last 2 years is ALL organic

igoldring

2022 was Luna, 9% inflation, and the Russia / Ukraine war that led to a harsher downturn. Then add in FTX and you have your final blow. This time I’m sure it’ll still be ongoing war, higher inflation + oil, Saylor selling (usually a bottom signal), and fed raising rates. If we get a recession by EOY with a mixture of weak job numbers and high unemployment then yeah it can get much uglier. We should bottom between now and October tbh, Ben Cowen has been spot on for his analysis.

ClearSnakewood

imo, all these ETF’s are probably 90%+ fake paper Bitcoin to extract demand and liquidity from real Bitcoin buying. It’s FTX’s playbook professionalized. Even with Saylor’s billions of $ buys I’m starting to have my doubts now. All this “buying” and “adoption” and yet we’re struggling to keep above 2021’s ATH? So who’s selling? At least I don’t think they’re buying… We’re being played here plebs…

SallyYoung1

What most people don’t realize is that inside the industry, it’s business as usual. We’re hiring. We’re planning for the future. We’re launching more new products than ever. And demand is still growing in important parts of the world. Not everywhere, obviously. The market might be down, but this industry has survived way worse. Terra/Luna blowing up. FTX collapsing. Major hacks. USDT losing its peg... all things that really could have spelled the end. I also think we’re moving past the cursed memecoin era. At least I hope. There's more focus on actual utility, and more practical use cases. Crypto actually being used in underbanked regions, tokenization etc. These are all building a more stable foundation. Just gotta stick around long enough for the recovery.

Affectionate_Use_179

This is one of the more realistic projections I've seen. What I like is that it doesn't assume BTC is going to $1 million next cycle. It acknowledges diminishing returns and assumes the next cycle looks similar to the current one. That said, the entire model rests on one huge assumption: that Cycle 5 will behave almost exactly like Cycle 4. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. People tend to forget that every cycle has looked obvious in hindsight and completely uncertain while living through it. In 2018 crypto was dead. In 2022 FTX supposedly killed it. Today people are saying the cycle is broken because the ATH multiple was smaller. Personally, I think the biggest takeaway isn't whether the next top is $160K, $230K, or $300K. It's having a plan and sticking to it. Nobody knows where the next ATH will be. We can only assign probabilities. What matters is having a strategy that works whether the next cycle overperforms or underperforms expectations.

xAlpharaptor

Because that's where the buyers finally stepped in. We saw a similar effect back in 2022 where Bitcoin found a local low after a huge sell-off during extreme fear. It did continue to sell off during Q3 but that was only because of the FTX collapse. Short of a black swan event I do believe 60K is going to hold.

Veganarchyst

You are playing into exactly what the capitalism fiat dollar structure wants you to think The Blackrock and Wall Street money systems are banking on you questioning and selling so they can take as much Bitcoin from you as possible That's why they sell off 1 billion plus in the largest single sell ever. That's why they sell off massively from ETFs, to make you question Bitcoin and sell yours When FTX and Celsius dumping btc under the 200 day moving average for the first time ever wasn't enough, now they are dumping their own creations by making you get out of their own ETFs, but what they really want is you being in max fear index and selling your actual coins - to THEM Regular folk in the retail class are not buying, it's so quiet in retail it's a ghost town Institutional and back door buying is gobbling up all the scared hands crypto Do what you want, but Bitcoin has fallen WAY worse than these drops in the past It's funny how scared and weak the people are around Bitcoin now compared with it's early days Don't buy into their manufactured fear. Don't sell BTC always comes back Look at its lifetime trajectory - it's always going up over time Bet on that Or bet on the fiat capitalism created fear and sell the only money you have that functions outside that 250+ year created pomzi scheme

Putrid_Comedian_1999

!remindme in 1 year when this goes tits up like Bankman-Fried the FTX grifter.

neverhodlHQ

Hey everyone. We built NeverHodl — a composite BTC cycle indicator that combines 37   on-chain, macro, and sentiment signals into a single 0-100 score. Free, no signup.            Quick data dump for anyone tracking the cycle right now: \- BTC NHCI Score: \~32 (what we call the "bottom zone")   \- MVRV: 1.42                                                                                  \- NUPL: 0.29                                                                                  \- Fear & Greed: 22                                                                            \- Global M2 (Big 5 central banks): expanding                                                  For context, the score was in this same range during Dec 2018 ($3,200), March 2020 COVID   ($4,000), and Nov 2022 FTX ($15,600).                                                         Not financial advice — we literally never say buy or sell. We just show where the data says    we are in the cycle and let people decide for themselves.   If anyone wants to verify the data: we have a public API, no auth needed. Just google         "NeverHodl" — the dashboard and API are free.   Happy to answer questions about the methodology or any of the 37 indicators.

Nemozoli

I would say having lived through 2018, Covid AND FTX and having disposable income these times, it is really your fault. Those were not two, but three severe downturn events that marked your Bitcoin journey. Yet you didn't believe it would pull through... this means it is a question of understanding the basics and the underlying principle of the coin. I did the same journey, starting in 2017. I cashed out my initial investment at the December peak to be sure... it all felt so hyped. Then in 2018, appalled at the dreary prospect of losing all my remaining "investment capital", I turned to shitcoins in the hope they would fare better. They did not... During Covid I was in "home office" with 50% reduced wage, barely making it with the family, no extra money for BTC. When FTX came, I was finally in a better place financially, so when $16k came after the FTX downfall, whatever I had, I dumped in Bitcoin! Even liquidated my pension fund which was not doing very well... best financial decision of my life! I could do this because I understand how Bitcoin works and how fiat money doesn't.

uncapchad

looks like BNB, AXS, Aster and ALGO. I cry buckets at AXS. I had 10000 AXS which got swallowed in the FTX debacle. Managed to rescue the rest but the AXS wasn't even worth compensating at the time. Now look! Life is cruel.

uncapchad

Every. Cryptocurrency. Exchange. Collapse. FTX wasn't the first. **your Bitcoin is not insured on registered exchanges**. The executors can take years to refund you and it's often 0 or pennies on the dollar. Being your own bank is hard, but this is waaay worse. Trusted 3rd parties cannot be trusted. The End!

Strong_Judge_3730

downvote it, clearly AI takes (no-coiner) like saying an investor that stored everything in FTX is not a speculator and was a careful investor. If you stored everything in a centralized exchange then you ARE a speculator

Academic_Attorney996

F\*ck FTX, F\*ck lending platform. Just DCA and HODL !!!

CryptoOnTheSidewalk

I think a lot more people did this than will ever admit it. In real time the FTX collapse genuinely felt different from a normal crypto panic because trust in the whole ecosystem looked broken, not just price action. It’s easy to sound disciplined during a recovery, but when every headline is telling you the thing might actually die, your brain stops thinking in long-term charts and starts thinking about protecting what’s left. The second cycle does get a little easier though, mostly because you realize fear itself is part of the cycle and not necessarily proof the thesis is dead. I still don’t think anyone becomes fully immune to it.

Peter4real

I think this lacks nuance.. Lending platforms weren’t scams, they were overleveraging. BlockFi and Celsius were balls deep in Luna either directly or indirectly. Luna was the scam. BlockFi were gonna bankrupt eventually after Luna collapse, but they still had money to operate. Unfortunately for them, when they sold to the company to FTX, FTX demanded to be the custodial of users funds. And we all know Sam sold every penny of any funds deposited. So BlockFi wasn’t a scam, it just suffered back to back loses due to actual scams. And after the Kroll restructuring, virtually all users where made whole and they were one of the only companies that didn’t (need) to initiate a claw-back. All that being said, I looked up the company behind the Kraken Vaults - Chaos Labs, and how they make money is basically through fees, lending and LP’s. But they have different risk tiers and I’m not going to touch any of them.

babypho

You can get 3%+ with a fdic HYSA right now. 2.5% yield is such a low amount for an unnecessary risk. You dont want to be the next FTX, Gemini, or one of those dead exchanges victim.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

>Everyone's bullish right now Yea, but all those bullish people have left crypto and gone to chips and AI stocks. Also, sentiment ratio is not every reliable. It's calculating positive vs negative mentions in online posts. Which is already subjective. But keep in mind, that in the past, when we got deeper in the bear market, sentiment ratio started to climb back. Mainly because a lot of people had left, and the only people still posting were bagholders. So even if the market continued to drop and, people continued to exit, the ratio wasn't getting lower. At least up until FTX and Luna tanked.

zesushv

UST/Luna, mtgox, and FTX are arguably the worst events to have happened in crypto... Many are still devastated.

Noels_Nose

lol remember when reddit partnered with FTX

BlindDriverActivist

Crypto died (for now). No hype, no speculation. The years of rugpulls, foundation dumping on certain projects, FTX, Terra, Binance market manipulation, bad monetary policy for risk assets at the time, Trump’s involvement, etc just made everyone collectively say screw this nonsense. Interest went in to perps, then to polymarket and this AI boom drew retail in another direction.

liquid_at

I was trading on FTX. do i need to say more?

fan_of_hakiksexydays

I mean there was also a lot more gold too back then, than what we see now. People put some good effort into analysis, we sometimes had some really creative posts, some funny stuff, some good debate, and thankfully some good in-depth warning about Luna and FTX which saved my ass lol. But we also had a lot of low effort crap. A ton of it. We got a lot of everything basically, because more people participated. But the nice thing about Moons, is anything that the community didn't think was working, they could propose and vote to fix it. And we did manage to start fixing a lot of things. But it took a long time, and we ran out of time too quickly.

Expert-Evening9303

Yeah but that's also why it survived when Celsius and FTX blew up.

zesushv

Sadly yes.... With the events that have been unfolding in recent weeks, FTX wasn't just a cex, it was a gathering of fraudsters with a common goal - **reap people off their hard earned money.**

True_Bodybuilder8095

**Looks like the FTX mess is still costing people big time.**

marvinrabbit

FTX stole everyone's money. And they linked funds in exchange accounts with funds in their company's related investment accounts so they could keep paying out investment accounts. Then all those bad investments started failing and suddenly there wasn't money left.