FTX

sgtslaughterTV

If necessary, please use translation software to translate this message to your first language. Do not respond to anyone who is sending you private messages. People who send you private messages are usually scammers that are trying to steal your money. 1. Generally speaking yes, but if you only want bitcoin, then you can buy bitcoin on Strike or Cashapp. The fee is lower. 2. Any place where you buy crypto can be hacked. This is a question of "How much risk can you tolerate?" I know people who say "If the amount of money I have on an exchange is less than two weeks' pay, I won't withdraw because of the withdrawal fee." 3. There might be, but I do not think they are worth the risk. In 2021, there were many projects that tried to do this and they are all bankrupt: FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, etc.

I360noscopedjfk

Not at all, SBF was running a legitimate business worth billions but was fraudulently mixing pooling customer funds together with business funds and ended up over leveraging himself; which would have been manageable if CZ didn't cause a bankrun on the exchange. SBF made some amazing investments that paid off insane returns. If the bankrun didn't happen we probably wouldn't even know of the fraud that went on at FTX.

Rare_Rich6713

Most exchange staking rates aren’t really staking, you’re giving custody to the exchange and trusting them to manage risk. If they pause withdrawals, rehypothecate funds, or fail like FTX style, your yield won’t matter. The likes of Babylon is different because BTC stays on Bitcoin in a non-custodial, time-locked script. You earn rewards without handing over your keys or relying on an exchange balance sheet. Lower headline APY sometimes, but massively lower custody risk. For BTC especially, security greater than extra basis points.

DoritoZNJ

You don't say! But yea, since the FTX crash I hope people learned their lesson

drifterlady

Getting off exchanges is always recommended. See Mtgox, Celcius, FTX, Genesis, BlockFi.

user_name_checks_out

> NYKNYC is stupid. > Bitcoin is not a pet rock. It is meant to be used. False dichotomy. I do not need to entrust my bitcoins to any custodian in order to use them. > Current self custody methods do not work for the majority of people. Nor do current custodial methods. c.f. Mtgox, FTX, Celsius, etc. etc. etc. Given a choice between: A) encouraging people to entrust their bitcoins to a custodian B) encouraging people to get better at self custody I choose B.

tornavec

I'd like to remind you that in the FTX case, Binance was simply trying to take over the exchange in an underhanded way, which is why it dumped FTT tokens. In the Flow project case, the developers claim that hackers managed to cash out the stolen cryptocurrency through this very exchange. And Binance has previously been caught cashing out cryptocurrencies from Venezuela.

Interesting_Low_1025

Buying 1.25btc on FTX dip and selling pump to 23k thinking it would dip back down

frogman202010

Binance did the right thing delisting Flow imo, it wasn't about "revenge". Same goes with FTT, unless you're implying that Binance should not have delist FTX, put their customers at risk and allow the ponzi to go on

Dziabadu

Where is the biggest Bitcoin exchange to fall? FTX gone, cz paid the price for binance. Leverage gone. Saylor has billions to run on flat BTC. You are delusional

ubermensch1001

Here's a breakdown for you. Do you think it makes sense for certain alts to drop LOWER than their absolute lows of this cycle? I'm talking the lows we had right after the collapse of FTX, at that time the market/BTC was the most oversold/undervalued it had EVER been in crypto history. At that time, ADA was at 23 cents, ETH was a little over $1,000. More recently, ADA was trading at a hair under 33 cents at a bit under 400 sats, so just slightly up from the lows of this cycle with regards to $ AND it was also trading at cycle lows with it's BTC pairing, which is roughly 400-500 sats. This was a fantastic time to be accumulating, as the potential to the upside was/is insane. Could we have dropped a bit further, sure, but why the hell would I sit completely on the sidelines holding off on buying because it could maybe go to 25 cents lol. This is the reason why you dollar cost average, I also created the bulk of my position in the summer and fall of 2023 and the fall of 2024. I'll give another example. I didn't touch ETH at all this cycle until April of 2025, I made a lump sum purchase when it was trading at a little under $1400 AND with it at cycle lows with regards to it's BTC pairing of under .02. Again, could it have gone down another 10%, sure, but to not see that as a fantastic time to create a new position there is beyond idiotic. There is always the possibility that something super unexpected happens or where the market goes way lower than you could imagine. I've been in this market since 2018, and the craziest event throughout my time here has by far been the COVID sell off. However, these events do NOT happen very often and they are not something to be waiting for BEFORE making purchases and creating positions. I will also add that what we saw from the October 10th crash going into December was a time period that was comparable to these major sell off events; such as the COVID crash, FTX fallout, bottom of the 2018 bear market, etc. What we saw more recently was more similar to post FTX and late 2018, as it wasn't as sharp and short as the COVID scare and took place over a much longer period of time. With that out of the way, if people are still sitting on the sidelines doing nothing during times like this they are setting themselves up for failure. At this point, with this little rebound in the market I think I'm going to hold off a bit and see what transpires over the coming weeks. I made some solid purchases to add to my positions last month, mostly BTC and a little ADA, that I'm quite happy with.

fizikxy

"These morons that don't have a clue" 2 months ago you posted about ["During this, we also saw big money players stepping in and loading up on the dip. For instance, Tom Lee's Fundstrat buying up almost 1 BILLION $ in ETH. I'm going to disregard Michael Saylor's recent big purchase of BTC, because he is always buying lol. This event was the equivalent of the COVID crash of 2020 and the FTX liquidation crash of November 2022."](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1o5rlk9/my_thoughts_on_a_bull_market_peak_for_this_cycle/) Tell me you have no idea why FTX blowing up was so bad without telling me. You also have no sense of business WHY Tom Lee is even buying this much and how much he is already done with buying. other good quotes from this post: * "People are so god damn bearish and fearful, yet BTC is still trading at around 115k, ETH at over 4k and ADA over 70 cents." * "Things will get beyond euphoric and everyone is going to be convinced it will be a super cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC at 170k+, ETH at 8k+and some alts doing close to a 10x or more from here." * "As for bear market of 2026. I think we will bottom out around 70-80k,..." Dunning-Kruger in full force. Just stack your BTC but stop acting like you know what the fuck you're talking about lmao

Flamboiant_Canadian

The 4-year cycle was abruptly disrupted when TerraLuna crashed amid the FTX scandal.

Academic_Attorney996

99% of all ETFs are hold on Coinbase as a their custodian. ETFs are paper bitcoin IOU. What if one day, you can't withdraw like FTX. Again, many times, if it is not your keys, it is NOT your Bitcoin.

ubermensch1001

This is exactly why I think everyone has been so bearish the last couple months, it's a brilliant play by big money market makers to get these fools to fold out of their positions so that they can load up at huge discounts before things take off. This isn't rocket science, but everyone is tied to this 4 year cycle theory without considering things could be different. The best part about this is that in 2021 the real top was actually in April-May of that year, not November. The euphoria back then was off the chain, I distinctly remember seeing insane green candles with just about everything. This cycle has been quite different as well in many ways. 2022 played out very similar to 2018, just a slow grind to the downside, with one major event after another being a focal point for the next leg down. First it was Terra Luna in April, then in June it was Celsius, Blockfi and the crypto lending platforms, and in November it was FTX. 2023 we really didn't do all that much until the very tail end of that year. 2024 was the year that was quite different, where we set a new ATH BEFORE the halving and then had another major leg up after the election of 2024. However, 2025 has basically just been a giant bear market, it's very likely/possible that we saw in Q4 of this past year was the final shakeout. I just do not see a case for this market continuing to sell further from here and do nothing for months and years, it just doesn't make a lot of sense given the variables and factors I mentioned. 2026 is looking like it's going to be a big year, those few people still in the market holding their positions or who have added will be rewarded.

khai0001

Last cycle was FTX, Luna collapse. Everyone said it was the worst.

Academic_Attorney996

So you are telling me that if it happen like FTX (that is a big name in the past) , you are OK with losing your Bitcoin. I see....

Academic_Attorney996

Haha. I smell another FTX 2.0. scam. If it is not your keys, it is NOT your bitcoin!!

JohnMunchDisciple

No one with any credentials to do so actually said that about FTX, quite the opposite. People said it in here, but that's sort of the problem because people in here are stupid.

PricklyyDick

FTX was not a public company that had to report things like liabilities.

RadiiDecay

Too big to fail? People said that about FTX...

NoPea1663

Is krollad@substack.com a scam address. Looks legitimate for FTX settlement. I think it's a scam. Said I have $1200 left in FTX. I believe I only had $100 with FTC which I withdrew. I guess I answered my own question.

partymsl

Don't care abour Saylor, but his company failing will probably be a bigger event than FTX collapsing.

harvested

Lots of crypto bros don't understand what happened in 2021-2022, how significant it was and how the current environment is nothing like it. Rates were rock bottom and the fed signaled the fastest increase in history to get ahead of the curve on inflation. Then unwind caused a lot of dodgy companies to go under, FTX, genesis, 3ac, and a the l-u-n-a collapse which pushed bitcoin further down. In addition some crypto guys are so blinded by the 4 year cycle theory, they don't even know that all assets peaked and tumbled at the same time as bitcoin. You can go look at the nasdaq chart, or Google stock for example. A top when bitcoin topped and a 2-3 year recovery to reclaim. To expect this to happen in 2026, you're gonna need to provide reasoning or thesis to be taken seriously, rather than claiming it is part of some mythical halving cycle.

You_Cards

I think he started a company called FTX

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; If a crypto exchange shuts down overnight, user funds may be locked indefinitely due to reasons like hacks, embezzlement, bankruptcy, or the death of key executives. Recovery depends on the situation; some exchanges like Mt. Gox and FTX have partially repaid users through bankruptcy tribunals, while others like QuadrigaCX resulted in permanent fund loss. Users are advised to use self-custody wallets for better security. Recovery timelines vary, and local laws influence fund ownership during bankruptcy. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

dubblies

Haha 2021 called they want their crypto token/airdrop scams back Im shocked this guy has just tried an FTX style thing yet. Just does whatever the last trendy scam was

mzking87

Bitcoin didn’t just cradle for no reason. In 2022 it was historical rate hikes, then collapse of the Terra “stable” coin, culminating with FTX collapse. 2018 was wild Wild West of ICO scams, culminating with china bitcoin mining ban which essentially took half of all miners offline. Before that it was Mt GOX, just to name a few. So unless you are predicting another market shattering macro news, don’t expect BTC to cradle like those previous years.

uncapchad

well assuming everyone on this sub or every current bitcoiner in general were given this choice, there'd be far more hodlers, far fewer throwing money into Mt. Gox, Celsius FTX etc. Saylor might have bought in 2013 instead of calling it scam and changing his mind 7 years later. I think ole Craig Wright would also like another go to better falsify his documents /s In fact with everything we know now, some of those other events might not even happen at all and other events appear in their place.

Squeiner

Ah ignorance is bliss, it's a wonder you made it this far. Of course, of course, you're right. My requires a license which means these exchanges won't collapse which means they were fine after FTX... except.. Didn't Genesis have their NY Bit license when they collapsed in 2023 as a result of the FTC crash?  You may have a bit too much faith in Daddy government's ability to control the world via licensing. It's a sign of naivety. Now you just outsource your Bitcoin security to the state and pay it no mind. They've got your back! Licensing works!... Good luck with that dude.  And I'm not pretending anything, I'm sure you lose your wallet and leak your seed constantly ;)

atomicdomb

I just don't see 27$k or 43$k being possible in a world where hashrate is as high as it is (which lets remember represents not only on-going mining but also sunk investment via the mining machines which must be purchased up front) and with a 2020 dollar being worth 1.25x a 2025 dollar. The previous bottom was around 16$k flash crash for FTX but stable bottom was like 30$k, with the 25% inflation over 4 years (https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/) and the increase in hashrate I would see 60$k being the absolute bottom. I also personally don't believe 126$k was the top and the old 4 year cycle methodology may be dead due to institutional adoption. So that's my 2c, I've been in the space since 2014 and do Bitcoin centric programming for a living since 2017.

ozera202

Let’s end this POS year , what a waste of time and stressful year 2025 has been. Personally I found 2025 worse than the low point of Luna and FTX crash .

Ikki_The_Phoenix

''I'm a bagholder coping with catastrophic losses by pretending losing 91% is part of some 4D chess strategy that doesn't exist.'' Let's dismantle this garbage shall we? Your Uber Analogy Is Fucking Stupid Uber burns cash to subsidise RIDES. You pay $5 for a $15 ride. Uber loses $10. You get addicted. They raise prices later. That's a real subsidy with a real mechanism. AVAX token at $12 vs $50 subsidises NOTHING. Gas fees don't get cheaper. Developers don't pay less. Users don't benefit. The token price has zero impact on chain usability. You're comparing Uber losing money per transaction to create user addiction versus AVAX holders losing money while the foundation dumps tokens on them. These aren't remotely the same thing. If low token price was ''the strategy,'' why did AVAX hit $145? Did they fuck up their own master plan? Or are you just inventing narratives to cope with bags? Your ''Adjusted Price'' Math Is Weapons Grade Copium You: ''If we adjust for supply, AVAX at $20-30 equals $70 in 2022!'' Current price: $12.36 Your entire thesis depends on a price that doesn't fucking exist. You're not even in your own cope scenario. But let's play your game: 2022: $17.1B market cap 2025: $5.3B market cap That's down 69% You diluted holders with 75% more supply AND lost 69% of market cap. That's not ''adjusting for inflation'' that's getting doubly fucked. ''Buhhbut if you adjust...'' No. Fuck your adjustments. Inflation IS the problem. You can't ''adjust away'' the fact that the foundation is dumping tokens on holders while market cap collapses. BTC has inflation too. Mining rewards add supply. Yet BTC made new ATHs. Why? Because demand outpaced supply. AVAX couldn't do that. Because nobody wants it. Your ''Social Media'' Excuse Is Backwards ''AVAX has bad social media attention which suppresses price'' Price creates sentiment, you fucking moron. Not the other way around. When SOL crashed 94% with FTX, everyone called it dead. Social sentiment was nuclear. Then it recovered. Suddenly everyone loves SOL again. The recovery created positive sentiment. Not the other way around. If AVAX pumped to $100 tomorrow, X would explode with ''AVAX IS BACK'' posts. Influencers would shill it. Social sentiment would flip bullish in 24 hours. AVAX has bad social sentiment because it's down 91% and bleeding holders for 4 fucking years. The sentiment reflects reality. You have cause and effect completely backwards because you need to blame something other than the obvious your coin is dogshit. The ''Worse Market Conditions'' Lie ''AVAX is achieving similar adjusted price under much worse market conditions!'' WHAT WORSE CONDITIONS? BTC: Near all time highs ($87K) Total crypto market cap: $3 trillion ETFs approved and flowing Institutional adoption growing We're in a fucking bull market 2022 was Luna collapse, FTX implosion, mass deleveraging, and nuclear bear market. 2025 is good conditions and AVAX is STILL bleeding (-67% annually). You're getting destroyed in favourable conditions. That's WORSE, not better. Stop lying about market conditions to explain why your shitcoin can't keep up with BTC going up 26% from the same timeframe. Your ''1 to 2% Trading'' Is Admitting Defeat ''Trade 1-2% fluctuations without concern about losing out on upside growth'' READ WHAT YOU JUST WROTE. ''Without concern about losing out on upside growth'' YOU JUST ADMITTED THERE'S NO UPSIDE. This is what you tell people stuck in a dead asset with no future. ''Hey, scalp pennies because it's not going anywhere!'' BTC holders don't need to scalp 1-2%. They just hold and they're up 26% from 2021. You're telling people to actively trade tiny ranges because the underlying asset is DEAD MONEY going nowhere. That's called a zombie coin. Congratulations. Your ''Tech Improvements'' Narrative Is Unfalsifiable Bullshit ''They're making changes like Etna and Octane that appeal to users over investors'' WHERE ARE THE USERS? Show me the user growth. Show me the TVL growth. Show me ANYTHING that proves these ''improvements" matter. Current AVAX metrics: Down 91.3% from ATH Down 67% annually Technical signals: SELL on all timeframes Sentiment: Extreme Fear (20/100) Rank: #31 (was top 10) Your ''tech improvements'' are doing fuck all. Nobody cares. Nobody's using it. The market doesn't believe you. But you have constructed an unfalsifiable narrative: Price goes up = ''See! Tech works!'' Price goes down = ''They're focused on tech, not price!'' With this logic you can never be wrong. Let's Talk About What's Really Happening The Avalanche Foundation is farming you: They printed tokens (245M → 430M = 75% dilution) Market cap collapsed ($17.1B → $5.3B = -69%) You got diluted AND price dumped They keep promising 'institutional adoption' while dumping on retail You write essays explaining why this is fine You're exit liquidity for foundation dumping. ''Buhhbut institutions are testing AVAX!'' Testing ≠ using. I can test drive a Ferrari and buy a Honda. That doesn't make me a Ferrari customer. The Uncomfortable Truth You Won't Accept SOL won the L1 wars. AVAX lost. That's it. Solana: Recovered, top 5, actual users AVAX: Dead money, rank 31, cope essays Your ''363 L1s'' are ghost chains. Your ''institutional partnerships'' are tests that lead nowhere. Your ''tech improvements'' aren't creating adoption. The market is screaming this at you: -91.3% from ATH -67% annually Extreme Fear sentiment SELL on all timeframes But you won't listen because you're financially and emotionally invested in being right

TimefortimXD

Something always breaks in the bear. Last time it was FTX. If that holds it could be binance, strategy, or an institutional custodian. When that happens, given the diminishing returns, we would break below the last cycle peak first time, bottom around double previous bottom so 32k. Now I am not saying this is certain or anything

Patient-Bumblebee

Some alts went up like 1000% since the low (FTX bankruptcy). If thats not alt season idk what is. But yes, wont see new highs on many alts until next cycle because 2021 many of them were just way overvalued and interest rates were much lower than now.

Antique-Pie-5981

FTX /s

choicehunter

You’re describing a utopian theory that has already been debunked by history. We have already lived through a "Sound Money" era: The Gold Standard. Gold is mathematically scarce and impossible to "counterfeit" or print. According to your logic, the Gold Standard should have made fractional reserve banking and "bad debt" impossible. It didn’t. In fact, it birthed the modern fractional reserve system. Why? Because human self-interest favors convenience and yield over protocol purity. Banks realized they could issue more paper IOUs than they had gold in the vault because most people preferred the convenience of paper. We see this with Bitcoin today. You say people will choose the base layer out of self-interest, yet millions of people voluntarily gave their BTC to platforms like Celsius and FTX to chase a 5% yield. They traded "real Bitcoin" for "IOUs" because greed is a more powerful motivator than technical auditability for the average person. Furthermore, the base layer cannot scale to 8 billion people. That means 99% of the world must live on sub-layers and IOUs just to function. Bitcoin is a breakthrough in settlement, but it is not a cure for human nature. People will always find a way to lend what they don't have to chase a profit, and no amount of code on the base layer can stop a private contract or a side-chain spreadsheet from existing. I am primarily a Bitcoin maximalist, but my psychology degree and even a casual review of human history (when hard money was in effect) confirms hard money does NOT actually stop these things no matter how much we wish and want to believe it would. It absolutely won't. I stand by my original statement that believing otherwise is completely delusional, or at best, confabulation of the reality of human nature, psychology, and history. Your utopian vision is ideal, and how we both intend to choose to live ourselves, but virtually impossible to become reality with all 8 billion people suddenly living that way. It's not going to happen. That doesn't mean there is no point though. Bitcoin is a tool. It's neutral about anyone's intentions or use cases. It will allow people to use it any way they want. People will absolutely use it in ways contrary to someone else's ideals of what they wish it was solely used for. Bitcoin doesn't care. It's for everyone. We'll use it our way, but history already shows how some people will use hard money when it is the standard and all these problems still existed then.

Zombie4141

When I first started buying bitcoin in 2016 I was using a free portfolio tracker called Blockfolio. It was epic, until FTX bought them out and ruined it. So now I’ve settled with Delta, which sucks. But you can use Coinbase market cap or any free tracker that has bitcoin. Then zoom out the chart all the way back and you can see bitcoin has about a 4 year cycle. After each cycle it usually goes down close to previous ATHs for awhile. Dec 2017 bitcoin hit $19,000 then most of 2018 it was near the $3-4k range, August 2021 it hit $68k then in 2022 it sat around $15k-28k June 2025 it hit $125k ish Next year I’m guessing $60-70kish

Azatis-

If this go down, FTX won't be even close

sngsam4

Remember that they are trustworthy. They even wrote that about bitcoin in 2022: >The value of bitcoin peaked at USD 69,000 in November 2021 before falling to USD 17,000 by mid-June 2022. Since then, the value has fluctuated around USD 20,000. For bitcoin proponents, the seeming stabilization signals a breather on the way to new heights. More likely, however, it is an artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance – and this was already foreseeable before FTX went bust and sent the bitcoin price to well below USD16,000. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2022/html/ecb.blog221130~5301eecd19.en.html

SeriousSamalt2

That doesn't really matter because Binance has ownership over the coins as long as they are sitting in their wallets. We all know how things went down with FTX...

National_Asparagus_2

The fact is that no one knows what the future holds.   I will not sell now or tomorrow because of this analysis,  I appreciate it though. If anything, when this BTC 30%+ crash happens, I will add to my positions.  Because in the end, assets like stocks and btc will just go up. We saw stocks value plummeted in March of 2020 (covid-19),  in 2022, all cryptocurrencies went to the bathroom(FTX), liberation day April 2nd this year - big crash, and the Deep Seek crash. Some companies market caps went on and more double in value.  I will not sell now because the markets will crash. I will accumulate. 

ProgramAlternative44

2022 was FTX bankruptcy.

Abnormal-Bug

She wasn't just his girl, she was the girl of all the men at FTX simultaneously.

natekates

PumpFun has cashed out $600M via Kraken since Oct 15th. There’s your alt season! Solana extracted everything from us & killed retail participation in crypto, reviving all the “scam” narratives. Funny since the FTX crash was the final dagger of the last bear market. Solana has been nothing but damaging for the crypto space.

Jimud1

Weren't Sam's parents super well connected as well, didn't they get charged with helping him? Didn't his dad work for FTX? 🤔 I wonder how much money they got away with

OkayStonker

"After she brought down the disgraced FTX founder" Framing it like she's some good person. She was involved with it equally with him. It's only because she's a woman that she got a lighter sentence.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research and ex-girlfriend of Sam Bankman-Fried, is set to be released from prison early on January 21, 2026, after serving 11 months of her two-year sentence for wire fraud and money laundering. Ellison cooperated with prosecutors in the FTX fraud case, providing key testimony against Bankman-Fried, who directed her to misappropriate billions of dollars in client funds. Her cooperation helped recover significant assets for creditors and secure Bankman-Fried's conviction. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

BeefonWeck00

most people don't remember or will admit solana was THE laughing stock of reddit for many years. I was buying it after the FTX collapse. I wish I could explain how poor the sentiment was. Even in shit times like these, i still have the last laugh. buy solana and don't listen to reddit

RamoneBolivarSanchez

Stick with BTC and ETH. Solana is centralized garbage. Only has utility when people wanted to get rugged by a bunch of scams. The lawsuit against the the Solana Foundation, Toly, Mert, Pumpfun, and infra like Jito/Meteora isn’t going to play out well. Solana was built out of crime (FTX) and when that didn’t work, they had to bounce back with MEV attacking retail and coordinating with infra providers to extract liquidity.

WearilyNice

Temporarily yes. But we also survived FTX.

Xiximaro

FTX failed on só many levels, is like they never prepared for Winter, wasting money that wasn't them and when it hit them they were to far gone. Hubris and corruption right there

ThreeTonChonker

Is any of this even worth discussing anyway? MSTR buys aren’t moving the price of BTC. Every couple of years this sub finds a new source of FUD (China ban, tether liquidity, quantum computing, etc) and if it isn’t bots driving it for market makers then it’s the human equivalent. FTX was never part of the FUD narrative because it was actually a huge deal but like most things you should actually fear, completely unknown. My underlying assumption is that market makers consider this sub to be retail and thus use FUD as a lever to push sentiment in whatever direction they choose. Which is hilarious because redditors can’t be making that much while working the drive thru at Wendy’s so I don’t know why they bother.

DBRiMatt

FTX had Larry David feature in a crypto commercial before their demise. I guess you'd just assume they were doing okay.

Romanizer

3. There is no such thing as a "cycle top". The mining reward scheme only predicts lower logarithmic base line as a minimum price. Tops and lows were only purely coincidentally aligned with that but caused by external factors (QE, QT, economical downturns,..) and systemic failure (MtGox, Celsius, FTX,..).

Whole-Reserve-4773

It’s this cycles FTX or Celsius. Space is getting more legitimate but this is a legit black swan that could plunge us into a bear. Happens every cycle . Whether it’s fud or not we won’t know until many more months

admin_default

No. The biggest risks are never the ones everyone is talking about all the time. FTX was so catastrophic because they hid it very well - they were even providing funding to support other crypto companies during the bear market. Not everyone liked FTX, but nobody knew how much trouble they were in.

JarOfNightmares

I'd never judge her for being ugly, but given the fact that she also was a member of some kind of sex cult at FTX, she is shockingly ugly

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, faces significant financial risks due to its highly leveraged position, holding over 671,000 BTC funded by $15 billion in debt and stock dilution. Its sustainability is tied to Bitcoin's price, with a potential collapse in 2026 if BTC drops sharply. A failure could trigger a market shock larger than the FTX collapse, as forced liquidation of its holdings might destabilize Bitcoin's price and the broader crypto market. The probability of collapse is estimated at 10–20%, highlighting rising concerns about its financial fragility. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

noviwu97

People already forgot about FTX, the #2 biggest exchange back then

noviwu97

FTX was #2 CEX back in 2022 and its collapse sure hit like a truck to the whole market, but it recovers after a year.

one-man-circlejerk

She knew exactly what FTX/Sam was doing and chose to participate in it. If they had gotten away with it, she would have been happy to spend the profits. She has a mathematics degree from Stanford and grew up in a home with two MIT economist parents. She plead guilty to the fraud charges. She knew what was going on, and had a hand in it. Painting her as some naive, starry-eyed girl who was duped by her boyfriend is rewriting the facts.

zeroboundss

Honestly, I don't think Caroline deserved jail time. She had nothing to do with FTX and at Alameda she was basically just Sam's puppet. People hate her because she was his girlfriend, but looking at everything that surfaced after the collapse it's clear Sam was the one pulling the strings. She was just a girl in lalaland who blindly trusted her scammer bf and ended up paying a price for it.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison, sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX collapse, is set to be released on January 21, 2026. Ellison pleaded guilty to fraud and conspiracy charges in 2022 and cooperated with prosecutors, testifying against FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. Her early release, about 10 months ahead of schedule, has not been publicly explained but may involve good-conduct credits. Post-release, she faces a 10-year ban on serving as an officer or director of public companies or cryptocurrency exchanges. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Laukess

I don't personally think that's enough. It did break the previous ATH, but not by a lot, and I also feel like the previous ATH was gimped by the fraud that happened (FTX, 3 Arrow capital, blockFI and so on). For me, the 4 year cycle is: 4 (2021): ATH 1 (2022): Bear market 2 (2023): bottom at the start of the year, if it was not at the end of the previous year. The year ends with bitcoin having recovered a bit. like bottom being 75% down and end of the year it's 50% down, so we've recovered but still far from the high. 3 (2024): we break the previous ATH at the end of the year. I don't really care if we're off a little bit, but I think we'll see new ATH's in 2026, and unless it's a blow off top, I don't expect a deep bear market, for the same reason I don't think we'll see a deep bear market in 2026. Right now we're at a cross-road and it's unclear what will happen, but with a top this low, I just don't see how the points above will be likely. It's important to note that between now and the previous cycles ATH, the dollar is down like 10% compared to the euro, and we've seen inflation, so it just doesn't add up to me. Interesting times ahead.

Suspicious_Compote56

The fact is crypto hasn't had a real alt coin season in ages. Bitcoin only headed towards 100k in the first place because of Trump, the US economy has been shit since the Biden administration.Im not a mega Trump supporter but to blame him and he has been in office for like a year is stupid. There hasn't been an Alt coin season since the fall of FTX

Hitchie_Rawtin

Most unlocks will cause price to go down but look at SOL, a constant stream of unlocks and FTX staking dumps but memecoin casino scum kept lapping it up. The only presumption to be made is that enough hype around a project can counteract the unlocks, but very very few projects ever gain that hype. Look at the first 4 years of the ICP chart to see the typical outcome of aggressive unlocks. I've no idea why people bought it at all for the first few years, anybody who bought it on the first day, month or year was certifiably insane. Now the look of that chart puts everybody off of it despite no more unlocks & despite the technology. Monad's FDV is more than 10x higher than its current market cap, so by buying now you're making a bet that it will *at the very least* outperform enough to reach its FDV once max supply is circulating.

Lee911123

Snitches get stitches unless the snitches are getting full support and protection from the FBI. A lot of SBF’s crimes wouldn’t have been made public if the board of FTX didn’t turn their backs on SBF, so at least that’s something

Large_Calendar_934

>FTX >Terra Luna >Celsius Sure the Gensler SEC missed massive amounts of fraud, but at least they committed enough perjury to shutter legitimate firms in the process. I still don't understand why people think they were successful. Not only were they ineffective at regulating the industry, but they directly fed into today's overly permissive backlash.

6969101016969

Neither FTX, "They are to big to fail" And "the entire crypto ecosystem could vanished if they fail" (No, didn't happened)

Subject_Ad3837

It's puzzling how Trump was touted as the savior of crypto. It was obvious from the get go Trump being "pro crypto" was merely a side effect of him wanting to profit from his preexisting corruption and shadiness. It's like saying the founder of FTX was pro-crypto because he ran a fraudulent crypto exchange.

letsburn00

Last I checked, FTX has theoretically paid back everyone. When they imploded, Bitcoin was worth much less. The amounts that were owed were totalled in US dollars. When BTC rose enough, the value at the day in US was say $60k, since it had risen to $90k, these guys will say there was always enough money. Nevermind that they had put in crypto that had accumulated plenty of cash if they had actually received it.

Sooperooser

Pretty sure the Alameda/FTX people have some wallets that do not appear in any excel sheet.

-richu-c

Sure. Ever heard of FTX, quadriga?? Exchanges are to buy and sell, not for stacking.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research and key figure in the FTX fraud case, has been moved from federal prison to community confinement after serving 11 months of her two-year sentence. This could mean she is now in home confinement or a halfway house. Ellison had cooperated significantly in the prosecution of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison. Her projected release date is February 20, 2026, nearly nine months early. Details about her current location remain undisclosed for privacy and security reasons. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

bottlejob69

Ledger support is great, my device had a firmware update which bricked my nano x. They sent out a replacement even though I was out of my warranty period. Don’t risk your crypto sitting in an exchange like FTX and MT GOX… not your keys not your crypto

Dziabadu

Bitcoin is boring. Bitcoin has to be boring. If you move your coins without strong reason you do it wrong. The only fees you are supposed to pay is for buying Bitcoin and for moving to cold storage. I feel your pain. A year of down only is depressing. In 2018 I was down 55% on my principal. I remembered quotes from Warren Buffett "buy when there's blood in the streets". I was very confident. I swore at people of the world "why are you so stupid to sell?" Later though I realized there was nobody out there. Just longs unwinding hence that was not normal, like stretch underpants. Will shoot up sooner or later. Never have I ever go under again, not even in deeps of bear FTX collapse. (Except one day March 12 2020)

Twomanator

You’re wrong plenty of wash trading still going on I built an indicator specifically for spotting these instances. Every buyer and seller is manipulating the price of Bitcoin most to nil effect. Any exchange can run partial reserves or print Bitcoin out of thin air to short aslong as they don’t run out of or sell all of their Bitcoin like FTX. The amount of manipulation that can be successfully orchestrated is to lesser effect in this financialized version of the Bitcoin market. That said currently liquidity conditions are not strong so it is ripe for strong hands to prey on weak ones. All I’m saying is if I’m headed out for a round of golf with the boys, we’re teeing off around 10am. No watch me manipulate this drive

Known_Click

We have to move out of the 4 year cycle thing if we really want Bitcoin to be some asset to take seriously. In past cycles we had luck that it aligned with stocks dumping as well, rate hikes , QT  and some project fiascos and companies in the space like FTX. But right now nothing it’s happening, it’s all the opposite, rate cuts, QE around the corner, Global Liquidity more up than ever,  economic numbers overall better than expected etc.

KCConnor

FTX has entered the chat. /s Coinbase, Binance, and other big exchanges are capable of making use of BTC they don't legally own (but technically have control over) in order to run down or up the spot price and liquidate leveraged traders. This is a huge reason why it's important to remove your BTC from exchange wallets and put it on a wallet only you control. EXCHANGES ARE CONSTANTLY SELLING BITCOIN THEY DO NOT HAVE. (caps to match yours) They just happen to keep reserves to cover if their gamble doesn't pay off. It's pretty unlikely they'll get wrecked by stop loss/liquidation hunting, but they're doing it with idle client BTC. I don't think that this is the root cause of this particular bull market's unsatisfactory performance though. Wall Street WANTS Bitcoin. And they're determined to get it for the best price. If it takes them 10 years, that's fine. They don't care. But they have a steady constant sucking bid that is roughly fixed somewhere between the mining price and the fair market price. While they own the insignificant minority of the asset, it will remained valued low. Once they begin to control the stored volume of the asset, it will appraise higher. The one thing they ABSOLUTELY do not want, is the 4 year cycle volatility that allows savvy BTC cycle traders to sell high and buy low. They undermined the 24-25 bull run, and they're going to also undermine the 26-27 bear market buy-up. They'll hold the price as high as possible, and keep the monthly swings small. They piss off HODLers enough, and they think we'll capitulate and sell into this $85-$90K limbo, and we won't buy back in at $75K. But I think the next 2-3 years will be the steady sound of a relentless steady-sucking institutional bid.

copyofa_

They use circuit breakers on the stock exchanges to control volatility. BTC does not have that. Retail got fucked by FTX. They started buying gold. K shaped economy. The lower leg of the K doesn’t have cash to buy BTC. At these prices, retail’s influence is less pronounced than all times previously. Hard to scoop up 1 coin at nearly 100k. Maybe we are back to revisiting the uncorrelated asset aspect of bitcoin. Gold has been ripping because institutions and sovereigns and countries across the world are deleveraging dollar in transitioning into a time tested store value asset.

Bred_Slippy

Another example would be exchanges which can technically allow users to sell more BTC than they actually hold in reserves. If an exchange doesn't have 1:1 reserves, they're effectively facilitating a form of naked shorting or fractional reserve banking (a la FTX; Mt. Gox). Once again, not saying this is actually going on en masse, but it's a possibility.

L00PYLL0YD

I'm sorry to hear about your brothers passing. Don't answer PM's from anyone, as scammers will exploit you. I guess it all depends if you want to hold for the future. 15K if in BTC is around 0.17 BTC in the USA or around 0.23 if its 15K GBP (Unsure of your country). That is a good stack of BTC, in the future that could be worth a lot of money. I would suggest researching Bitcoin and if you believe in it long term, maybe consider self custody in regards to holding it (Cold storage etc) as leaving large sums of money on an exchange is risky due to hacks and also the integrity of the exchange (Look up FTX, Mt Gox, Celsius etc). Good luck!

snower88

No problem. U are better off than me. I bought bitcoins and store them in FTX and Celsius. Never seen my coins ever again

MaximumStudent1839

Bottoming at $50K means it is off by 30% from its previous ATH at $69K. Even with FTX and all the shebang last cycle, BTC bottomed around 5% from 2018’s ATH. So the analyst is telling me BTC is going to see a worse performance than last bear market?

Known_Click

I still don’t get why are you guys all bearish for 2026 when there its literally no reason with QE around the corner. In 2022 bear we had QT, way less Global Liquidity, Rate Hikes, FTX and Terra Luna fiascos, Stocks were in the red too.

AutoModerator

Post is by: strategydossier and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: https://youtu.be/Bbw15JpDuK4?si=7IQn_ml9279YWsqF ​Everyone knows FTX collapsed, but reading through the restructuring reports, the actual mechanics of how they moved the money without triggering alerts is terrifyingly simple. I spent the last week breaking down the flow of funds for a visual project, and here are the 3 key takeaways: ​1. The "Allow Negative" Flag Most exchanges have an auto-liquidation engine. If your account goes below $0, it sells your assets. Alameda had a specific hardcoded exemption in the FTX codebase (the "Allow Negative" flag) that effectively let them trade with infinite leverage. ​2. The Collateral Illusion They weren't just taking customer cash; they were minting FTT tokens out of thin air, marking them at market price (despite zero liquidity), and using that as "collateral" to borrow real customer deposits. ​3. The bank run wasn't the cause, it was the reveal. The hole existed for months. The tweet from CZ didn't break the exchange; it just pulled back the curtain on a box that was already empty. ​It’s a classic 1920s style bucket shop operation wrapped in 2020s tech. ​If you're interested in the visual breakdown: I created a short documentary style video visualizing this exact mechanism and the history behind it. ​Link to the strategy dossier: https://youtu.be/Bbw15JpDuK4?si=7IQn_ml9279YWsqF ​Curious to hear your thoughts—do you think decentralized exchanges (DEXs) actually solve this, or will smart contract risks just replace human fraud? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

paperlevel

Yes, President Trump and his family backing it was a big part, I didn't mention that because I knew it would trigger people, but the regulatory path was uncertain before Trump. Also the bad actors such as FTX SBF, Terra Luna, Bitconnect, and BTC clones like BCH, there was just too much uncertainty. When BlackRock launched the ETF I knew the tide was changing. I also like Michael Saylor, he explains it very well, even if he is "too bullish" I agree with most of his sentiment.

KJ2017

Ummmm no that’s a terrible saying for crypto. See it is your money but you’re at the whim of the medium . Exhibit A. FTX. Exhibit B. Voyager

AutisticGayBear69

He panic sold after the FTX collapse. Or maybe he was using leverage and got liquidated. Either way, not the brightest bulb in pack. Zoom out if you’re holding or set stop losses with leverage.

carlpocket

I feel we still haven't had a run. This bull was mainly MSTR and institutions front running everything. There wasn't an alt season. Sure XRP and Sol ran (but FCC and FTX made those make sense to go back to a normal price). Zcash recently ran. But almost everything else didnt come close to new highs (eth did get a few hundred above 2021). Many coins currently at 1 year lows. Its been weird seeing only bullshit memes from pump.fun run this cycle. I kinda feel alts been in a bear since last Christmas and we might see some start pumping early next year. If not it seems anyone here since 2017 or earlier would never touch an alt again.

worique

Was thinking the same, last cycle dump came with the FTX downfall, i’ve been thinking maybe this time AI bubble would be bottom signal of btc

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; The SEC has proposed settlement agreements for former FTX and Alameda executives Caroline Ellison, Gary Wang, and Nishad Singh, barring them from Wall Street roles for up to 10 years. These agreements include restrictions on securities transactions and bans on serving as officers or directors of publicly traded companies. Their cooperation was pivotal in the case against FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who was sentenced to 25 years for misusing $8 billion in customer funds. The executives' testimonies were crucial in the trial and recovery efforts for creditors. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

JDovah

Yeah, it’s likely it won’t drop as drastically as it did in the previous bear market, we’ll know in a year or so. We have to remember there were a bunch of black swan events in 2022. The Terra collapse, FTX bankruptcy, the Celcius collapse, and recession fears. I believe this is the reason BTC dropped so badly on the previous bear market. This was also the first time it dropped below the previous cycle’s ATH. It’s likely it would’ve bottomed at $25-30k without all of these events, but we’ll never know.

copyofa_

Retail is buying gold and silver. They got rekt last cycle by FTX

MrCalabunga

Since you mention FTX, I take it you also agree then with Trump's decision to pardon CZ and think that, too, was good for crypto?

No_Knee3385

I'm not referring to his memecoin, I'm referring to actual helpful acts like the GENIUS Act or the Executive Order. And the chances of her doing nothing with all of the things that FTX wanted to accomplish that would have ruined crypto. And yeah I get it, reddit is very left leaning, I expect no agreeance. Reality is, on 2 timelines, crypto is better off with Trump, regardless of the sentiment with his name, there's a reason every crypto company wanted him to win and donated to him

Queasy-Improvement29

Remember when the FTX around SBM hit hard and everyone said "this is it, it's over"? Now it's just a dent in the history of charts. Welp.

OffThread

Selling you a coin for 85K and buying up at the same time. It's FTX and 2022 all over again.

wavepoint

I think that turned out to be a lie. It was how SBF claimed to be successful and rich to get FTX seed funding. But in reality he had very little and spent investor funds almost from day one when he founded FTX. He was a fraud, not a genius.