FTX

I_am_the_darkness_99

Yeah Bissent's bond buyback created a positive black swan moment that has faded now. The week after elections is typically a bloodbath. We've regressed to the mean from before the bond buyback, and it remains to be seen if the downward momentum carries us to the really low drop percentagewise we saw in previous cycles or not. Inflation is still looming, as are stagflation/recession worries. Good news with the war in Iran could turn things around, maybe. But my guess is that we get a deep correction towards $50k if not below. My original guess for the bottom of this cycle was like $38k, but in the past there have been some really bad failures that dogpiled on each other like the Luna/Celsius/FTX fiasco last time. I thought the Binance hack was going to do that but they did a great job covering the losses and maintaining customer faith.

No-Explorer-8949

Every bottom has a forced seller. Miners in 2018, Covid in 2020, FTX in 2022, AI pivots now. The reason changes, the window doesn't. Nothings changed just me against time. Late November into mid December.

BatumTss

If you've been in for a while now, these despair signs all over social media is a good buy sign. All of this sounds too familiar. Though 2022 felt like the worst, after the FTX collapse and dozens others it really felt like another Mt. Gox in the making.

Ill-Blacksmith3260

Oh man I'm sorry I think I explained it all weird haha but that's why I mentioned the FTX situation and Sam Backman freid, the CEO who "over collateralized" 😅It's the scenario played out in real life

Ill-Blacksmith3260

Absolutely, is it a bad thing? In most way yes, most crypto firms go under and those stocks would be worthless. But I dont think you can "over collateralize" I think you can only receive 50% of you're collateral on most contracts. But let's say if a CEO dumped 50 million tokenized stocks into a smart contract to receive 25 million in USDC, the stock doesn't plumet it stays the same while the stocks are locked in the contract, only until the contract is broken is when the company get control of the stocks. If the CEO pays back the 25 million then the CEO receives the stocks back. If the CEO does this knowing the stocks will be worthless at some point then it turns into a FTX situation then alot of people lose alot of money.

AriesThef0x

Same here, bought for the first time one month before the FTX collapse. Doubled down afterwards and went quite hard around the sub 20k range. Continued to buy up towards 100k. Sold 60% of my stack at $115k and bought my first house. Started buying again around the 70-60k range and I clawed back about 70% of BTC sold last year.

Awkward_Potential_

After FTX collapsed, I bought at $30k then $25k, then $20k, clear down to 15k. It feels idiotic while it's happening but DCA is the way.

HSuke

Sure. But the Dec 2021 to Jan 2022 wasn't that grim. It wasn't until mid to late 2022 that it was full blown clusterfuck. FTX didn't implode until late 2022.

JustStopppingBye

>Billions were thrown at FTX LOL! You're confusing speculative crypto investments with actual institutional adoption with a purpose. Swifts blockchain infrastructure is now live, moving beyond the pilot and experimentation stage toward real world deployment. If blockchain produces nothing, why is one of the world's largest financial networks putting it into production? FTX failing doesn't invalidate the technology.

Rad_dad3

Millions of dollars have been invested into web3 and other moronic blockchain/crypto projects. So yes. What kind of questions is this? Billions were thrown at FTX. Billions have been thrown at crypto in general and it produces nothing.

Main-Inspector-6611

My bet is also that they're son some FTX shit, definitely.

Django_McFly

Elizabeth Warren ran for Senate under a "Anti-Crypto Army" platform. To spin it like she's been reasonable and logical about crypto is kinda insane. You're pretending that like everything that happened under Joe Biden didn't happen. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/14/elizabeth-warren-anti-crypto-ftx-00082624 She was supporting legislation that if you people who make wallets have to KYC every user and crypto miners/validators need to KYC every transaction that they process. How do you spin that as: " the worst thing she said is to tax crypto trading the same as stock trading" And that doesn't even seem accurate because crypto is taxed like stocks since 2014 https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-14-21.pdf. Did you actually read what she was saying? >that the goblin was literally a Fascist wannabe. How the fuck are you going to fulfill the potential of decentralization with concentration of power? The US Senate doesn't control whether random tokens are decentralized or not. The president doesn't control every crypto token or network that exists and can make them centralized on a whim. Fascist leaders already exist and there are decentralized tokens. That's a weird connection to make. You make it out like the president can *touch* a blockchain and make it centralized and approve/reject every transaction or something. This sounds like more of that Elizabeth Warren thing where you probably halfway read something. Crypto in the US is in for an incredibly hard time. The people who cozied up to like a super villain (SBF and FTX) and when exposed, went ballistic and declared all players in the space to be super villains are back in control. The industry is back to *everything is a dogfight*. This is only positive for the industry are sayings like, "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger," and, "pressure builds diamonds."

GimpyPlayerOne

Someone on the inside is my guess. Or maybe just another FTX like situation.

stay_safe_and_calm

If you read crypto is dead that's always the most bullish sign you could get. After FTX -> the low was in; After Bybit hack -> best time to buy. After Mt.Gox. -> best time to buy. Always the same story.

CrazyAppel

Lmfao if you believe any of what this dark web money peddler loser tells you, you need Jesus. This guy got into crypto with his FTX buddy SBF doing shady crypto arbitrage with the Japanese markets. They became competitors so Cz outplayed SBF and now SBF is in prison. They basically were out-snitching each other on twitter and CZ won. CZ is still just a loser trafficker criminal retard that deserves public execution. He was/is a compliance gatekeeper for underground money including scams, fraud, drugs and human trafficking. If containers full of children make it from Asia to the West, his hands are 100% dirty.

bitsteiner

Sure, the cause might be different, but fractional reserve just makes it way more risky for customers. FYI FTX effectively operated on fractional reserve model.

Individual-Equal-441

The crisis in Paraguay has nothing to do with fractional vs full reserve. It was caused by fraudulent bank management where the required reserve was missing. That kind of fraud can also happen with crypto, as it did with FTX.

Django_McFly

It actually is true though. They co-signed FTX while suing Coinbase and Kraken. This is true. Maxine Waters is literally blowing kisses at SBF. Elizabeth Warren did run on an anti-crpto platform. All of these things happen. None of it is made up. You can goofle it and and literally see the pictures and campaign ads for yourself. They gave the most corrupt actors in the space the thumbs up while going after the most legit ones. I identify as liberal and progressive but my people have their head totally and completely up their ass for all things technology. If you want to argue that there are pros that I'm not seeing fine, but don't argue me that facts are fantasy and that things you can Google and prove in seconds to be facts are lies just because you don't like them.

No-Average3202

I get the point about Trump’s deals looking shady, but saying you’ve never been this bullish just because he’s taking political hits ignores how much worse the atmosphere was under Gensler. Luna, FTX, Chokepoint, coins getting labeled securities and dropping 50% overnight… that era was a lot more stifling than Trump Coin. At least now people can breathe a bit.

PrintDoErro

What kind of stability and reliability are you talking about? The stability and reliability of Mt. Gox, FTX, Binance? Perhaps BlackRock's "paper Bitcoin" through its IBIT ETF and its operations with Coinbase? One of the major problems with the fiat system is precisely the ability granted by governments to the financial system to create money. Banks can issue financial instruments and extend loans far beyond the amount of deposits they receive, effectively creating money without corresponding backing. This isn't the only cause of inflation, but it is certainly one of them. Bitcoin was created, among other things, to overcome this problem. But if you believe that handing BTC over to the same outdated and failed financial system, allowing it to reproduce those very same practices with Bitcoin, makes any sense, that's your choice.

SamQuentin

Crypto has always had a bad air about it from NFTs to shit coins to meme coins to the FTX scandal to the Binance theft. This won't change at all Clarity act will be written by the banks

Aintnobeef96

FTX was a giant fraud basically so I’d hope not. I’m not hating on them but I don’t see it as comparable, FTX wasn’t hacked and didn’t have the funds to prevent a bank run, that’s not at all similar to what Binance is dealing with here, and they’re handling it well.

SirFabber

There’s a difference between Bitcoin being hacked, and an exchange that allows you to trade Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) being hacked. The core blockchain/consensus layer has never been hacked. Whenever you hear about Bitcoin “hacks” or people losing money, it’s essentially always phishing attacks or exploits that target exchanges, hosted wallets, or in general any piece of web2 software that interacts with the Bitcoin blockchain. As we have seen in the past with exchanges such as FTX, an exchange can stop existing literally overnight. If you want full ownership of your tokens, well I’m just going to say it because honestly I thought this was already common sense: NOT YOUR KEYS NOT YOUR COINS

Kittens-EU

Let me tell you something. Whatever is about to happen is about to happen! I lived through countless cycles. Even was part of the FTX collapse and I am still here and I am still investing! Stop worrying about things that may not happen! Live your life!

RegisZZ

That’s a cute way of saying CZ exposed all the bullshit FTX was doing

Romanizer

$58k Gang made sure that this level would never be breached again. And looking at technicals, it's almost impossible. Buying today at $58k would be like buying at $10k after the FTX crash.

EbbMother5325

Well CZ did give FTX a substantial kick so it would crumble faster

Expensive_Seat5694

Funny how people hate on Binance even though they’re able to cover everyone’s funds unlike FTX

Treece-57

Bro - chill lol this is nothing compared to FTX collapse pandemic dump. The worlds ok ✅ HODL

rankinrez

It’s 18 years today since the white paper. If the evangelists have not had any second thoughts in all that time I can’t see the silly Binance hack making any difference. It’s nothing compared to Mt Gox or FTX.

la_roscinante

Just like Mt. Gox and FTX heists had no impact on btc price. Right?

dontcare4512789

This is not true. The OP is deliberately misleading people. BTW A bank run is nothing new for Binance.  when 3AC and FTX went down, Binance processed around 15 billion in withdrawals. They will be fine.

Efficient_Range1156

crypto guys have been down bad since SBF and FTX so my guess is that she wasn’t

Electrical-Value-673

Well, tell that to the people that got hit during the FTX period.

Pristine-Bee-269

Problem is you do not know when it will become a FTX situation.

sluuuurp

Didn’t FTX pay everyone back after the bankruptcy? My understanding is that they made very risky bets with lots of non-liquid assets, not that all the assets were fake.

star_trek_wook_life

Don't give Binance too much credit. They robbed the shit out of FTX when it fell and laundered the proceeds. Heard this story before.  Same thing happened to BTCe back in the days of mtgox. BTCe were partially responsible for the mtgox hack and laundered funds through their accounts. Then when BTCe got their own hack they made a portion of users whole before running off with the rest of the bag. People praised BTCe... until they stole the bag and ran.  Time is a circle

dontcare4512789

True, I was monitoring the situation when 3AC and FTX went down, and Binance processed around 15 billion in withdrawals. They will be fine.

Full-Atmosphere-4818

I would not trust that they really have the money to cover all this. If I had money there I would be out and into a cold wallet. Just because they say they have the funds covered does not mean they do. Mt Gox said the same once. So did FTX. Why take a chance? Bitcoin was never about "trust."

jekpopulous2

The difference is FTX was under-collateralized. Chainlink PoR oracles show that Binance has about $150B in reserves. This hack was absolutely massive but they can easily cover it.

tenor_tymir

Maybe they could loan themselves, that’s worked great for Alameda and FTX.,

Omniknight111

Binance is next FTX. Take your money out before too late

GoldEdit

That’s what they said about FTX

Conscious_Eagle_8653

FTX didnt public proof of reserves and have a $14 billion venture capital fund seperate from their customers funds. They collapsed because their customers funds were their venture capital fund.

softnrg

FTX will be fine if Sam has been truthful so far

Significant_Sail_901

Have you seen the culprits in the FTX debacle??? 

Easy-Campaign6805

[FTX](https://www.ft.com/stream/555b8eaf-51c0-4d66-bbf3-dfe5dd0bcaaf) said it had gathered roughly $15bn, mostly from selling venture capital investments made by the exchange and its trading affiliate, Alameda Research

Fluid_Garden8512

>to where? most will do nothing and chill Self custody? Where do you think? Yes do nothing. They have learnt nothing from being the last to withdraw from FTX, Vauld, Hodlnaut, Voyager and be in lengthy multi year bankruptcy proceedings, the last in a long line of creditors.

Fluid_Garden8512

>Everyone could withdraw, but everyone won’t withdraw If you had all your BTC on binance and didn't withdraw when able to that would be insane. Has nothing taught you anything since FTX in being that last to withdraw?

thejourneymanfm2024

I’ve never trusted any of these exchanges. If FTX could do it, any of them could. Cold storage is the only way.

Conscious_Eagle_8653

I was here for every exchange collapse since MtGox. Binance is not over leveraged like FTX. Their business model has planned for this since day 1.

thejourneymanfm2024

Were you not here for FTX?

Lavayo

So did FTX.

mrjune2040

That’s bullshit. The same would have been said about FTX when it lost 8 billion in customer funds. The US arm of Binance literally just did a raise two weeks ago valuing its US arm at 1 billion (which is way down since 2022). That valuation points to the company needing to service debt loads and running costs, and this incident will undoubtedly affect the finance that it will be able to access over the coming 12 months. The global arm is worth way more but it’s still a private company and its books are completely opaque, I very much doubt they’re particularly liquid in terms of cash holdings given the wider financial health of the crypto industry so it will probably also need to reach for external investment to carry some of the debt load on the 6 billion.

Feisty-Driver-1263

Unlike all the people who got paid back by FTX?

Conscious_Eagle_8653

It's not their size it's the way the company is setup and hedged their risk for such an event. They aren't FTX.

Awkward_Potential_

Look at FTX for how this kind of thing can spiral.

jguest1105

Honest answer: there's no clean dataset comparing total losses both ways, and anyone who claims otherwise is selling something. What we have is the failure record, and the two sides fail differently. Exchange losses are rare but correlated and total. Mt. Gox, FTX, and now Binance ($6.3B this week) - when a custodian fails, everyone with coins there is hit at once, and there's nothing any individual holder could have done differently. Self-custody losses are individual. Somebody loses a seed phrase, falls for a fake support message, sends to the wrong place. Those are process failures, and processes can be learned and improved. Is it realistic for the average person? I'd say yes, with the same caveat as any skill: nobody should move their whole stack on day one. Small amounts, a simple hardware wallet setup, a test transaction, a backup you have actually verified. The risk drops fast with a little practice. Bitcoin being for everyone was never supposed to mean it asks nothing of you.

soks86

As a business, it made sense to sell the asset to make the customers whole. The customers were not investors in FTX itself (aside from those holding FTX coin or whatever). It was still an amazing investment, it didn't have to be the best for it to matter because after what happened to FTX it was a miracle finish.

soks86

You're not totally wrong. They're clearly violating some sort of protocols if they're in the business of securing crypto assets. At some level hacks are bound to happen. This was a successful attack and security in depth \_should\_ protect from that. Maybe $6,000MM of assets in one hot wallet isn't the best of ideas, but I don't know how much is in their insurance fund, maybe this is okay for them? (doubt it) Difficult to say without a professional doing a good postmortem and someone smart summarizing it for us laymen. Still, you should study the concept of corporate controls to understand that FTX and Binance are actually extremely different. FTX has no corporate controls, one could argue the fraud was the lack of a properly functioning business in itself (I believe this was argued in court). On the other hand, Binance either had underestimated risk in their policies or got lax with policy enforcement. One is fraud while the other is, likely, an oversight (mistake).

Alimakakos

FTX style.. Here's your (same number of SOL) we lost you at $295+ at it's current price of $45 lol

Ok-Sympathy9768

you are correct..BUT, I think what keeps the ETFs safe is that if they ever did get hacked and investors did lose their money, it would completely wipe out/destroy the value of Bitcoin now and in the future; for a very very long time ( possibly forever).. mainstream would never again trust bitcoin or any other crypto currency as an investment. It would destroy a multi-trillion-dollar industry .. it would be magnitudes worse than Mt Gox or FTX.. The ETFs are a multibillion-dollar cash cow for BlackRock, Fidelity, and the others ( they will do everything in their power to protect that income stream). ETFs are what is keeping bitcoin “valuable”.. the hackers know this.. hacking the ETFs would be like killing the goose that is laying the golden eggs.

d3r3k1449

Right not if everyone panics so why are you pouring fuel on that? This is not at all the same as FTX.

SerenityCerulean

Worst narratives tend to bottom. Last was the FTX collapse. The fact that Bitcoin only dropped 5k for this size of narrative is itself very bullish.

mazdarx2001

Quick tip. I had funds in FTX. I tried to cash it out to my bank account, and it would lag out and crash. But transferring to another wallet worked.

Ill_Imagination_6791

"First time?"- FTX CEO

Flexerrr

Binance is insolvent, will soon be compared to FTX

OtherwiseNeat9617

The so called FTX tokens valued at 20 dollars were fake... The capital was locked in certain tokens once the administration took over. So the liquidations were limited. Not all of it was fake. Most of the profit was fake.. they ran out of capital when the market turned red. Textbook rookie mistake

Leading_Wafer9552

This isn't like FTX/Celsius where the platforms were insolvent and fraudulent. Binance has already stated they have the funds to make their users whole and cover any loses.

farfromjordan

How did FTX creditors get paid out over 100% if it was all fake

6DeliciousInches

Binance assets under management is $160 billion. $5 billion was stolen. ONLY $155 BILLION REMAINING AT BINANCE ARE WE FUCKED OR WHAT?????? FTX had $9 billion AUM and misappropriated… $9 billion in customer funds. So let’s go over once more. FTX lost all the money. Binance lost not 5%. Final point, a pump is a $1000 BTC 1 min candle.

OtherwiseNeat9617

The difference is. CZ and binance hace 140 to 150 billion USD under custody.. FTX had nothing, because it was all fake

SeasawPhilosopher

The wild thing is FTX had nearly 8% ownership in Anthropic at one point. If they didn’t fuck up and then have to sell that position it could have been one of the greatest trades in history. They would have turned $500 million into $40-50 billion.

soks86

They used an Excel spreadsheet to guesstimate balances. It was even worse than you describe, but yeah, Binance and FTX are very different beasts.

TheRabbitHole-512

It’s not the same as FTX. The heist was big yes 6.5B but they have 140B total, it’s less than 1%, it’s actually less than 0.5%. Give CZ some credit and the benefit of the doubt. So far he’s been a champ.

SE4NLN415

I mean just use Mt Gox or FTX for example. Long and tedious but maybe some partial recovery. Coldcard Hack or even with the Liquid federation shit, absolutely ignored and fucked?

bhalter80

I'm waiting to see the \*s put on that including being made whole and as of when and in what currency. If they're paying out in kind that works. If they're paying out in USD or equivalent it will be a fiasco like FTX where there are plenty of opportunity cost losses and effectively redemptions that get taxed

tenor_tymir

It’s FTX all over again, just in a different form. People, don’t be stupid and don’t start selling, fear is creeping in again and that’s when buying becomes the sweetest.

FrugalityPays

You're right that the bank and brokerage rules don't apply. Crypto at Fidelity isn't covered by FDIC or SIPC. The protection comes from how they hold it. About 98% sits offline in cold storage, in shielded vaults across multiple sites. Moving any of it takes multiple signatures and approval from more than one person, so there's no single point of failure. They don't use outside custodians or exchanges like Coinbase, and they don't lend out client assets, which is what wiped out FTX customers. So it's not a government guarantee. It's Fidelity's own custody controls. The real weak spot is persoonal login

mischag107

Nothing to the scale of the FTX going bust at 10 billion

_Commando_

FTX was saying the same thing "Funds are SAFU", and what else... "Deploying more capital" ? Yea good night Binance.

EducationalSock948

Fidelity are not safer. They store the btc on Coinbase, which can be hacked like Binance or go bankrupt like FTX. There is indication that North Korea’s next target hack is ETFs via Coinbaase.

lombuster

FTX wa$nt a hack, right!?

clutchtho

I read stories like this and think, eventually this will be the story of everyone. I've also been in crypto for 10 years. Moved my crypto to a hardware wallet off of Celsius 1 month before collapse, moved more funds off FTX around the same time as well, I considered myself lucky getting through those 2. But now I've never felt less confident in the space than I do now. Major exchanges being hacked. Hardware wallets being hacked. Zero days coming out every day now. Even if you do everything right for years and years, something completely out of you control will eventually come in and take it all away.

togetherwem0m0

Binance isnt collapsing. FTX collapsed because they had 0 bitcoin but maintained customer ledgers of billions. In a weird way, this demonstrates publicly that binance has bitcoin to steal. So proof of funds. Not the best way to do it, but its recoverable.

Abgg_Reviss

Yup. Also, it really can't be an FTX event imo, because the total amount stolen is less than $3B, right? Binance holds over $200B if I'm not mistaken. This amount should be coverable by their profits alone, unless a bigger exploit hits them soon.

JuxtaposeLife

Agree 💯 As most focus heavily on the spot Bitcoin price, the longer term trends and activities of those holding 80% of Bitcoin (wallets that haven't moved in 6 months or longer) are the real alpha about what is coming. My read, this won't be an FTX event, but those who need liquidity will lean heavy into trying to convince retail this is an FTX event. So that they can accumulate at the start of this bull cycle.

Turdfurgsn

Reminder that the FTX collapse marked the bottom of BTC in that run Sell if your scared but I see opportunity

Driftmier54

Literally a copy of last bull market beginning when FTX went to zero 

Suguha_chan

Never would have thought that binance is this bear markets FTX

maxis2bored

Banks have been around as long as the monetary system, crypto is emerging. When banks were emerging, they were robbed too. With that, even deposits at FTX, Celsius etc eventually repaid. Again this heist (while huge) only presents 4% of their holdings, so if anyone has actually lost anything we have yet to know.

likethemouse

I guarantee you someone lost millions on FTX, didn’t learn their lesson and now will lose millions on Binance

YoghiThorn

FTX was not a black swan

bryanchicken

It’s over. Just like it was with FTX and all the other times shit like this happened. It’s funny it always happens at the end of the bear market too

Independent-Piece505

It got very ugly after FTX. It will get ugly now. I noticed some prices have rebounded, I don't see this being sustained.

binary_blackhole

Nah I was buying at 60, there was no apparent reason why it was crashing it was just an opportunity to buy more. I’m just not sure if we’ll have another FTX scenario, if binance handles this really badly, and if they start selling btc to cover losses, the market will eventually hit new lows.

Flexerrr

Sure, FTX said same thing https://preview.redd.it/gn4z6jc86lyh1.jpeg?width=585&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f54b3aeb1b51e7223cbe5a740622615a8af3bba5

Perslue

That's kind of exactly my point. FTX was the start of the bear market last cycle, but you're saying it was previously the end of the bear market. But we went from like 70k to 20k after FTX went down and didn't even start to look like we were going back up until a year after that. So if your idea of this being an end of bear market symbol is kind of crazy.

Weird-Web7456

Of course it does but it’s not like this is our first rodeo, FTX… There is was too much smart money in there now for it ti just go bust. They are getting it right where they want it b4 lift off

Ok-Act-705

Macro/Micro COVID/FTX