ETH

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Post is by: Mr_Hodlerr and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1xmvdq4/following_the_1_copy_trader_for_6_months_turned/ Copy trading gets sold as "find someone good, press copy, earn what they earn." I wanted to see what that actually looks like, so I pulled every copy trading vault Hyperliquid has ever had and simulated what people really do with $10k. **What $10k became after 6 months** Each run starts on the 1st of a month (23 starts, July 2024 to May 2026) and only uses what the leaderboard showed that day. "Following the #1" means putting everything in whichever vault was top by 30 day return and moving to the new #1 each month. All results are after the leader's 10% profit share. |What the copier did|$10k after 6 months (median)| |:-|:-| || |All in the #1 vault, switch monthly|$237| |Split across the top 10, re-pick monthly|$4,611| |Split across the top 10, never switch|$7,758| |Split across the 10 biggest vaults, re-pick monthly|$9,759| |Just hold BTC + ETH|$10,316| Over a full year it's the same story, just worse. From 16 start dates, the #1 chaser ended at $25 at best, the re-picked top 10 at a median $691 and holding at $8,682 **Why Hyperliquid** Most platforms only show the lead trader's own return, so you never see what happened to the people who copied or to the traders who blew up and disappeared. Hyperliquid's copy trading runs through vaults and every vault's balance, profit and followers are onchain, including the ones that closed. That's 9,470 vaults opened through Oct 30 and I used all of them. **Time works for holders, against copiers** With holding, the longer you stay, the better your odds. Half BTC and half ETH from any day since 2018 made money 64% of the time after 1 year, 70% after 2, 97% after 3 and 100% after 4. Copy trading on Hyperliquid runs the other way. Of followers still in a vault today, 52% of those in for 3 to 6 months are in profit, 20% of those in for 1 to 2 years, and 5% of those in for more than 2 years. (Followers who cashed out aren't in this data, so it's a snapshot, not every start date.) **The exception** Some vaults did hold up: the ones with a year or more of history, small drops and steady weeks. None of the ones still open was near the top of the 30 day board. A split across vaults like that (1+ year record, worst drop under 30%, up over the last 6 months) beat holding from 10 of 12 one year start dates. But only 1 to 4 vaults a month qualified before Sept 2025, so take that one with a grain of salt. **How I measured it-** [full report and method](https://botsfolio.com/blog/does-copy-trading-work) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

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Post is by: Holywizy and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1xmq5ez/mercado_bitcoin_brazils_largest_exchange_halts/ Following up on the Binance hack from last week: this is the third big crypto security incident in about a week, after Binance ($6.3B) and Polymarket. What we know so far: \- Mercado Bitcoin paused all deposits and withdrawals on November 2 after a "security incident" \- Wallets on at least 10 blockchains were drained \- Estimates range from about $40M up to $46M (Arkham tracked about $46M across 36 addresses) \- The attacker has already started moving funds, reportedly about $8M in ETH \- The exchange says no customer lost money and no data leaked, but there's no reopening date yet \- No public link to the Binance hack so far Anyone here using Mercado Bitcoin? And after this week, are you moving more off exchanges? Full breakdown with sources: https://holywizy.com/blog/mercado-bitcoin-hack-40-million-withdrawals-halted-brazil/ *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Previous_Valuable873

XMR ahead of DOGE in marketcap, what a time to be alive :D Top 3 around when ETH hits 1000 and BTC 38k :)

jasonslpt

Sorry this happened. The unlimited USDC approval from Oct 22 is the first thing to look at. An approval lets the approved contract move that token with transferFrom at any time, with no new signature or biometric prompt, because the permission already sits on chain. The part that does not fit a pure allowance drain is the SOL and ETH gas leaving at the same time: when someone else calls transferFrom they pay the gas, so gas taken from your wallet suggests a transaction was sent from your own address. That makes it worth treating the seed or device as exposed. Steps that help now: open the drain TxID on a block explorer and check which address actually sent the call. Check the token approvals for your address and revoke every unlimited allowance, USDC first. Move anything left to a fresh wallet with a new seed created on a clean device. Keep the TxID, timestamps and the state log together for the support ticket, and file a report with your local cybercrime unit, since funds that land on an exchange can sometimes be frozen. Going forward, approve the exact amount you plan to spend instead of unlimited.

habibiCEO_onsol

The freeze part is kind of the whole debate in one story. The stablecoins got frozen in hours because they have an issuer, the ETH couldn't be, and the hack itself was on a custodian, not on the chain.

No-Masterpiece2246

If anything it's a selling point for ETH and BTC, and a huge reason to never use stablecoins. They can be stolen arbitrarily by government or the issuer.

Previous_Valuable873

Every single day since mid 2024 when I converted everything I had as shitcoins (including ETH, BTC, and a lot of smaller ones) to XMR has been the best decision of my life. The only true crypto, not on CEX, witchunt against it nonstop and still 4x while Bitcoin halved.... Wake up people, most of you who think they buy a fungible, untraceable CRYPTO when buying BTC realize eventually that it is exactly the opposite... Just ask yourself the question, why every government is afraid of it? Because it is what BTC originally wanted to be Satoshi just could not solve the fungibility with untraceable ways yet.

NoNameSwitzerland

Was it ever? The Canton tries to be modern, so officially supported it a little bit. But was there much more, besides the millionaire of "Bitcoin Suisse" living there and the ETH (some organisation) letterbox.

msc1974

And 90% has already been replenished (from Binance): "Since our last update, the covered amount has risen from approximately 80% to 90%. All BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC are fully backed at 100%. We'll keep purchasing the remaining assets through market and OTC channels until the covered amount reaches 100% for all tokens."

webisticsmarketing1

Crypto is ass because in a market where virtually every other asset is growing impressively bitcoin is down over 10% YTD and ETH is down over 20% YTD.

jkl2035

There Are quantum Secure Algorithms - some projects already use them, path is to migrate the existing projects (See BIP360/361 for BTC, ETH quantum roadmap), my worry is that some of the projects are not fast enough. Quantum is currently speeding up on all sides - algorithms, Hardware & design (I just found ecdsa.fail a few months ago & really freaky how this moved since then)

Aquirox

The reported 1.76 billion USDT were frozen by Tether and have not been converted into ETH. Other stolen funds were reportedly swapped for ETH and TRX before the freeze. In theory, Tether could issue 1.76 billion replacement USDT and return them to Binance, provided the frozen tokens are permanently neutralized and the recovery process is approved.

Bluejumprabbit

On the ETH leg they used an EIP-7702 delegation to point Binance 14 at a sweeper contract, so each time the hot wallet auto refilled it got drained again, three passes in a row. The signing setup got compromised to authorize those delegations, so no raw private key ever had to leave wherever it was held.

GEB82

Secret BTC wallets?…that must be a new thing I’m unaware of…ETH secret wallets, also, news to me buddy..

No_Profession_3125

I do the exact opposite: when the market crashes I buy the dip by swapping USDT to ETH, and when the market surges I take the profit by swapping ETH to USDT.

Wayne

I thought I read something where the majority of the funds were put on to a lending platform as collateral. They then defaulted on the loan and ran off with the borrowed ETH.

OtherwiseNeat9617

Its noted... everywhere. Do you think they kept all of it in one hot wallet ?? Also, more information. Ethereum smart contracts caused the hack. Native to ETH. If the BTC was in its own wallet it wouldn've been safe. Shit coins again

Ill-Bodybuilder9263

Shake out. Shake out XRP, ETH, they don't want retail owning these cryptos anymore 

Fun_Professor_4324

With all the chai analysis companies and AI watching the chain, it’s very unlikely for them to cash out 18k BTC. Bitcoin doesn’t have a proper working mixing service like Tornado Cash or Railgun that ETH has. The amount is too big, everyone has their eyes wide open. My guess is it will stay still for a very long time

fan_of_hakiksexydays

In the last 10 years crypto has been around: \-Blockchain security has slightly improved on major chains like BTC and ETH. \-Major exchanges have improved their security requiring more layers of verification and more indepth internal security. \-Hardware wallets have improved their hardware and software. BUT \-Hardware wallets have also added features that create more vulnerabilities. \-Exchanges still have a lot of the same weak points. \-Hacking is vastly more powerful plus has the help of AI, so the improved exchange security could still fall behind. \-Quantum might still be a threat for blockchain, but not for at least a decade or two.

HardGayMan

All the ETH here in Canada is frozen. You just need to warm it up before you trade it outside of Canada to a warmer place.

Rickard403

That much BTC and ETH getting dumped on the market could do some damage. Probably not serious damage by itself, but additional fall out could occur from others selling out of fear, longs being liquidated, etc.

ApprehensiveSorbet76

If a major bank were completely drained, the transactions would most certainly be reversed. At the very least the legal system could be used to seek recovery. With ETH, you don’t even know the identity of the staker who signed off on the transactions. The real problem here is that the etherium network validators dropped the ball. Clearly these were fraudulent transactions that should have failed even the most basic validation checks. The key signature check alone is too basic. It’s so inadequate that banks aren’t even legally allowed to be so simplistic.

Sensitive_File6582

Yes you can walk back with transactions. It’s why there was the split between ETH and EatH classic. YouBTC you cannot 

chainglance_cm

For stables, sure. It’s basically a normal debit card with a bit of extra spread. With BTC or ETH I’d skip it. In a lot of countries every swipe counts as selling crypto, so a month of groceries turns into 40 tiny capital gains events to deal with at tax time. Some cards also hide a 1-2% conversion spread on top of the ATM fees. Cashback is the only real reason to use one, and that’s usually paid in the card’s own token, so it’s worth whatever that token decides to do.

ofjay

Before anyone says ‘not your key, not your coins’ I was unfortunate to send some ETH to Binance last night just for conversion to USDT (BSC) and my withdrawal has been suspended. Things like this happen and some people just get caught in the crossfire.

FoucaultCareofSelf

Ai overall, not just in one way, is really beating crypto down, hard. Would be fascinating to see where BTC and ETH would have been without AI.

2peg2city

No it was withdrawn from their system, the stolen ETH and BTC are not able to be frozen. Quite a bit of thr USDT and USDC was frozen, some was used to borrow ETH and BTC before that happened

GueRakun

60m usdt frozen for 60m worth of ETH? That is small compared to $1.5b.

suspicious_Jackfruit

They have more potential wealth in BTC than ETH (about a billy in each) so I'm not really sure you understand enough to be allowed to use margin trading

Radiant-Concern6391

You must not understand how big binance is. It will fully reimburse users for the $6.3 billion hack using its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU, holding roughly $1 billion in Bitcoin) plus company funds. No private key leaks, and about $3 billion already frozen via partners.  The exchange maintains substantial reserves, with recent Proof of Reserves showing roughly $151–165 billion in crypto holdings and over 100% coverage ratios for major assets like BTC, ETH, and stablecoins. The loss represents only a small fraction of total reserves, enabling full coverage without impacting user balances or binance operations

Radiant-Concern6391

You must not understand how big binance is. It will fully reimburse users for the $6.3 billion hack using its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU, holding roughly $1 billion in Bitcoin) plus company funds. No private key leaks, and about $3 billion already frozen via partners.  The exchange maintains substantial reserves, with recent Proof of Reserves showing roughly $151–165 billion in crypto holdings and over 100% coverage ratios for major assets like BTC, ETH, and stablecoins. The loss represents only a small fraction of total reserves, enabling full coverage without impacting user balances or binance operations

dida2010

Quote: The attacker raced the freezes by selling USDT to market makers and borrowing ETH against USDT on Aave. It now holds more than 420,000 ETH and 18,270 BTC, **about USD 2.4 billion in assets beyond any issuer's reach.** Thank you , please come again

TargP

To be authorised, a firm is required to hold - inter alia - balance sheet capital to cover prudential risks, and to have insurance cover for assets held in hot wallets. None of that can be covered by client funds - house and client funds must be legally segregated. Binance is regulated in multiple jurisdictions, so will have demonstrated to and satisfied multiple independent international regulators that they have sufficient coverage on an ongoing basis. So, although they may currently be short a specific asset (e.g., ETH), they will have the asset value covered. This is an asset mismatch issue, not a funding one.  Whilst I may be unable to alter your adopted perspective with any measure of wisdom, I'm simply trying to explain how this works. Regulation, compliance, risk and capital management across financial and crypto markets is my professional field of expertise. 

gkibbe

Aave will make money on the collateralized usdt when they dont pay the ETH back

brows1ng

You’ve probably seen by now, but they deposited it into Aave and took a loan out in ETH using the USDC/USDT as collateral. When the collateral got frozen…the hacker already withdrawn the ETH, which cannot be frozen. Such a simple move, but you need to know what you’re doing to have planned that part out - smart on their part.

RationalDialog

Because you want anonymity? Monero is the only blockchain I would ever really consider. With say ETH, everyone could go check all your transactions where you buy stuff, how much you pay for rent and so forth. 0 anonymity. This is also why blackmarkets bascially use xmr only.

AidenTai

Okay, a spooked market can sell of some, sure. That's not unreasonable, especially if amounts change. But Binance didn't lose as much in the way of stablecoins as it did 'traditional' crypto, meaning if anything it would need to \*buy\* BTC and ETH to return that to its coffers. This would take time, but yeah, if Binance has assets in hard currency and needs to correct imbalances between customer holdings and its assets, it would need to buy up what the customers were holding which is missing. Ergo buy pressure. And 'non of this is federally insured' tells me you're from the US and think this would affect US customers, but this has nothing to do with the US or US customers at all.

Silmarlion

While they did get hacked numbers are wrong. Just by looking at USDT you can realize that. Tether has frozen the account. It is centralized. From what i have seen from other posts hacked account is ETH not the others.

InjectedFusion

Moved quickly? Not fast enough to prevent from AAVE once again as the pawm shop of choice to borrow some ETH and leave the pool holding the bag on bad debt. Only two outcomes happen. Either Tether releases stables, and the attacker successfully laundered OR the bad debt is stuck in limbo by the Feds in the Southern District of New York.

TenshiS

No no it'll be "Secured from Hackers ETH", or SHETH

FaceDeer

In Feb. 2025 Bybit had $1.5 billion in ETH stolen. That's almost twice the ETH that was stolen just now. No fork. Things have changed rather a lot since the days of TheDAO.

Cryptoxic93

That simply removes ETH from the ecosystem reducing total supply and increasing its value long term.

bitsteiner

They did that because it was ETH's fault (some clever minds used an exploit in ETH, that shouldn't exist).

pistachiosarenuts

The stable coins were froze but only after the hacker put them up for collateral and borrowed ETH

Immediate-Truth-8684

almost 2 years ago bybit was hacked, and 1.5B of ETH were withdrawn, this was recovered fast

SuleyGul

I asked chatgpt to investigate This means the attacker successfully converted approximately $44.6 million of exposure into ETH that Tether cannot centrally freeze. However, the post is misleading in suggesting that billions of dollars were moved through this technique. Aave identified only one such position, involving $60 million in collateral. Why this works

Financial_Clue_2534

I thought they hacked ETH wallets

onlyhere4hobbies

There is still going to be losses. The hackers moved the stolen USDT to aave, borrowed ETH against it since it can't be frozen and moonwalked away

Phylaras

I agree. Likely to be a slow distribution of BTC and ETH over months. But that doesn't mean Binance will implode.

EngPilotNerd

At least the transfer fees on 28k ETH were pretty low.

pplgg4445

They put down the tether as collateral. Borrowed ETH. Layer that tether was frozen. So whoever lent their ETH is sitting on tether they can’t move

RushHourMC

It kind of is, that’s why the hackers have been swapping for ETH since no one can freeze it

Alatarlhun

Fair. ETH is more decentralized than just about anything. I wonder what AAVE's docs say about the risks of having its USDC money market frozen funds by the issuer.

Prior-Front-7741

Not if they’ve been transferred to Aave and used as collateral to borrow ETH, which is apparently what he did. Not sure who will keep the USDT in that case.

feltusen

Its shit anyways. Bitcoin is shit, USDC is shit and ETH is shit

pplgg4445

From Bala on X the binance hacker just did something genius and it should scare you tether froze $1.5 billion in stolen USDT. circle froze $800 million in USDC. everyone's celebrating like the problem is solved meanwhile the hacker deposited the stolen USDT on aave, borrowed ETH against it, and walked away. because USDT can be frozen. ETH can't he's never paying it back. he doesn't need to tether and circle just proved they can freeze billions in seconds. and the hacker just proved that if you know how defi actually works, none of that matters the freeze saved some of the money. but the smartest money was already gone before anyone pressed the button

meccaleccahimeccahi

For context for others: More than $2 billion in ETH and tokens left Binance hot wallets on Thursday for an address created hours earlier and funded through Tornado Cash. Changpeng Zhao said "It looks like Binance was indeed hacked," while Binance itself has said it is investigating but has not officially acknowledged a breach. Estimates vary, with researchers putting outflows as high as $2.77 billion across five blockchains Much of it is already locked up. Tether froze about $971 million in USDT and Circle froze about $823 million in USDC, but about 167,000 ETH also moved, which can't be frozen. Binance says user funds are safe, and CZ said that as a shareholder he expects all user funds to be fully covered. Markets reacted anyway: Bitcoin fell below $79,000 and ETH under $2,240, with $627.7 million in liquidations in a single hour FWIW, nobody has claimed that AI is what hacked it, but I am inclined to agree with OP on that.

omni_wisdumb

Anyone who's been around this space since even 2012/13 knows crypto has become nothing more than a digital casino being controlled by a relatively small group of firms, nations, banks, and companies. All stable coins are fully controlled by the energy that created them, same goes for pretty much every coin other than BTC (which also could theoretically be the case ). The space wants to hate or form conspiracies on banks and how the government or secret groups control them, but then they're cool with XRP and USDT and USDC and the coins (even ETH) that can be edited by their founders. Then there's the whole debate about Quantum and AI hacking and what not. There's also the point that, unlike your bank, most of these coins are unregulated and not backed by anything.

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Post is by: Mother_Job_6154 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1xiwu9m/isit_true_about_the_recent_incident_with_binance/ Anyone else heard of the recent incident regarding Binance. More than $2 billion in Ethereum (ETH) and tokens left Binance hot wallets on Thursday for an address created hours earlier and funded through Tornado Cash, Etherscan data shows. Binance has not said whether customer deposits are at risk. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

LambertIsMyName

Not so long ago HYPE was valued at $28 and ETH at $2800

Feriman22

Sure. It's called FerimanEdge: [https://ferimanedge.com](https://ferimanedge.com/) It tracks BTC, ETH and BNB with a fixed rule set, publishes the current market regime, and sends Edge Updates when the entry/exit conditions are actually met. No AI deciding trades, no exchange connection, no copy trading.

DoingItForEli

I was literally just reading about how an internal model at OpenAI solved the ETH problem (not ethereum.) https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/1xgju7f/openai_says_its_models_refuted_the_exponential/ If so it's a pretty incredible achievement for AI.

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Post is by: Unable_Tackle_1255 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1xgvjn7/19630_eth_is_still_withdrawable_from_six/ Measured from chain state today: 19,630 ETH is claimable across 220,827 addresses in six 2016–2017 contracts whose front-ends are long gone. EtherDelta V2 alone accounts for the bulk; the largest single holder is owed 604.22 ETH and hasn't touched the wallet since 2017. The technical part is trivial and always has been. balanceOf(address token, address user) with token 0x0 returns your ETH balance, and withdraw(uint256) pays msg.sender. No approval, no allowance, no owner involvement — it is permissionless and always was. So the money isn't stuck because of a bug. It's stuck because nobody knows they have a claim. Of the top 400 holders, 97% signed at least one transaction historically, but only 4.5% have signed anything in the last twelve months. I built a read-only checker: [https://jlicerio.github.io/etherdelta-claims/](https://jlicerio.github.io/etherdelta-claims/) It reads all six pools in one public eth\_call and prints the exact transaction to release each claim. No wallet connection, no signature, no key input, no cookies, no analytics, no server-side code — it's a static page you can audit, and it prints the raw JSON-RPC body so you can replay it against any node with curl. Two honest caveats. If you have lost the key to the address, none of this helps and the balance is unrecoverable — that is very likely true for a meaningful share of them. And this is my own tool, so treat it with appropriate suspicion and verify the numbers against Etherscan's Read Contract tab. The point of the post is that the claim probably exists and takes one transaction to take. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

alt-co

Pretty classic case, and more fixable than you’d think. The blockchain is your receipt. Even with no chat logs, each sale usually shows up on-chain as two matching events: the NFT leaving your wallet to an address, and ETH arriving from that same address around the same time. That’s a P2P trade, and it reads like one on the blockchain. Here's what we’d add around it: * Proof you control the wallets (a signed message or a small test transaction, this shows that it's your wallet that received the NFTs) * What the collection was trading at on the day of each sale. Overpriced NFT sales are a known laundering pattern, so showing yours matched the market answers that question before it’s asked * Screening of the buyers’ wallets, since “random dudes” is the one part a compliance officer will want checked * Any Discord or Telegram screenshots you still have, as supporting rather than main evidence We’ve done this for plenty of people who traded peer to peer or bought with cash back in the day. Before AML rules caught up with crypto, LocalBitcoins, meetups and cash deals were simply how a lot of people got in. A good report explains that context, then backs it with whatever trail exists: matching cash withdrawals from your bank, old platform account data, and the on-chain history from that point on. Although as we are not accountants, the focus is on the trades that made the money. Losing trades rarely need the same level of evidence.

jekpopulous2

The roadmap was to upgrade their chain to be an ETH validium but at some point they abandoned it and decided they were going to remain a sidechain. No idea what they were thinking but they lost me. The best thing that they had going was their zk prover and their pessimistic cross-chain prover. Now they’re just another EVM L1 and the tech behind it isn’t even very good compared to Sonic, Avax, etc…

Feriman22

Not manually. I only act when the system triggers an entry on BTC, ETH or BNB, so I don't really have a "this looks cheap, I'll buy it" list. That's kind of the point - removing that discretion from the process.

VestaScan_

i think the premise is half right but the “AI can’t pass KYC” part is a bit off agents don’t really need their own bank account. in practice there’s always a human or a company behind them that’s legally responsible, and that entity already has a stripe account. and the card networks and stripe are clearly not sitting still on this, they’ve all been pushing agent payment stuff (visa, mastercard, stripe with openai etc). so for “agent buys something from a normal business” the boring tradfi rails will probably win for a long time where crypto actually has an edge imo: * **micropayments.** paying $0.002 per API call or per scraped page doesn’t work with card fees. stablecoins on cheap L2s or solana do. coinbase’s x402 thing (payment over HTTP basically) is the most interesting attempt i’ve seen at this * **agent to agent with no business in the middle.** if two agents settle between themselves 24/7 programmatically, a wallet is just way simpler than any bank API * **cross-border.** same reason stablecoins are already growing for B2B payments but notice that it’s mostly stablecoins, not ETH or SOL as currency. nobody wants their agent’s budget swinging 10% in a day. so the question is more “which chains host the stablecoin volume” than “which token goes up”. LINK is a different category anyway, that’s oracles/data, not a payment rail the part people underestimate is compliance. at my company (VestaScan, we do RWA tokenization) we’ve spent more time on KYC flows and who’s liable for what than on the smart contracts themselves. regulators won’t let anonymous agents move real money at scale, so whatever wins will probably have identity baked in somewhere, likely tied to the human or company behind the agent timeline wise i’d say micropayment use cases are real now but small, and big volume is still a few years out. curious if anyone here is actually running agents that pay for stuff on-chain today

Coleyx123

Definitely agree. BTC and ETH are for holding (at least for me), and most tokens are for trading. If the tokens are cheap and have a decent community, I hold a few million just in case, but that's some "I'm not going through DOGE again" type stuff. Spent $3 on DOGE way back when I thought I was going to trade myself to riches. I did not and should've held. Idk what 7.5 mil of DOGE is worth, nor do I want to, but I picked them up for a $1 or $3. Life happened, traded them, and now I cry, lol.

HisCromulency

Why is ETH not $100k yet

8hzWANU_P

Because I still have hope for my position, not booking the loss, when I sell man same day or next day I promise you, you will see it’s all green god candles for ETH till I buy in again. You guys should start paying me to hedge your positions.

8hzWANU_P

Of course I’m in, cant close down a 77x leveraged position when its down 3200%. ETH. The futures contract has been open for a year now. Im mentally ready for another year.

HorrorCapable

You have overlooked the supply and demand, which is one of the most important factors in the game of market, as BTC has limited quantity of 21 millions and only about 1 million left to end, whilst ETH has no limits of supply! Surely this will not be unfavorable to ETH.!

Chief_reef_steve

If ETH flips BTC you can have all of my BTC lol.

VerbalVisually

**Four data points plus arbitrary lines is curve-fitting.** The author admits the Fibonacci levels mean nothing. Inverting a chart to find bottoms has no economic basis, because supply cuts don't create a hard price floor. **Supply isn't the main driver anymore.** Annual issuance is under 1%. ETF flows, liquidity, and macro conditions now move price far more than halvings do. **"No more gains" doesn't mean "insecure."** Security depends on the block reward times price, plus fees. A flat price at $60K+ still funds near-record hashrate. The long-run "security budget" question is a legitimate debate, but on a decades-long horizon, not 10 years. **The Monero comparison is weak.** Monero is CPU-mined and much smaller, so hashpower could be redirected to it. Bitcoin runs on specialized ASICs that an attacker can't simply rent at the scale needed. **The biggest hole: Ethereum has no miner reward.** It switched to proof-of-stake in 2022. The whole thesis rests on miner rewards providing security, yet the proposed successor doesn't use them. Staking has its own trade-offs, which the author never addresses. ETH/BTC has also trended down for years, so the "flippening" hasn't shown up in the data. **Internal contradiction.** An asset whose upside flattens doesn't have to fail. Gold doesn't need halving-style rallies to stay valuable.

ConsciousPressure292

The charts are cool but this feels like someone who learned just enough about log scales and fib levels to build a whole religion around them. That Monero attack mention is doing a lot of heavy lifting for the security argument but those were very different circumstances than what Bitcoin faces. I’m not sold on the ETH flip either. The security model difference is the whole point of Bitcoin for a lot of people and Ethereum moving to proof of stake didn’t exactly convince the hard money crowd it’s a better long term store of value. The halving diminishing returns logic makes sense on paper but markets don’t read white papers. We’ve had plenty of people calling the top and bottom based on perfect mathematical models only to get steamrolled by a black swan or a random Elon tweet.

J5966358

Man you have quite a strong opinium. Often the universe does not care about opinions. But as an ETH holder I would not mind if coming true. 

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Post is by: jordiceo and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/kaspa/comments/1xfil5y/i_made_a_free_tool_that_turns_the_kasbtc_ratio/ Hey r/kaspa, I'm a long-term holder who buys KAS and BTC on a regular schedule. Every time I bought, I'd check charts, the KAS/BTC ratio and sentiment, then try to decide how to split that week's buy. So I built a tool to do that for me, and I'm sharing it free. **🔗** [**kaspa.rostr.one**](https://kaspa.rostr.one/) · **Code (MIT):** [**github.com/Rostr-EdTech/kas-signals**](https://github.com/Rostr-EdTech/kas-signals) **What it does** * **Market signal:** buy zone, neutral, greed warning or trim zone, based on the 20/50/200-day moving averages, RSI and Fear & Greed. It always shows the reasons, not just a verdict. * **This period's plan:** you enter your holdings, how much you buy and how often, and your target KAS/BTC split. It then suggests how to divide your next buy. New money leans toward whichever coin is relatively cheap on the KAS/BTC ratio. If your allocation has drifted too far, rebalancing comes first, without selling. * **Signal report card:** shows how *your* thresholds would have done over KAS's full price history. It recalculates in your browser whenever you change a setting, so you can test your own rules instead of trusting mine. * **Chart:** KAS price or the KAS/BTC ratio, moving averages, buy and trim zones, RSI, log scale, zoom, and a "Share image" button. * **Goal projection:** your holdings plus regular buys under four scenarios, and a "what if recent trends continue" view at 1, 2 and 3-year rates. You can add ETH, SOL, ADA, XMR and others if you hold them too. * **Kaspa vs other networks:** live market caps and ranks, KAS's price at each network's market cap (plain arithmetic, not a forecast), and simplified technical specs. It covers where Kaspa stands out *and* where others lead. The specs are in one file, so corrections are easy. * **Network and mining:** hashrate, emission, the next monthly reward reduction, and a miner profitability calculator. * **Guide:** plain-language explanations of every number. Light and dark themes. **Privacy** Everything runs in your browser. There's no server, no account, no cookies and no tracking. Your holdings never leave your device; they're stored only in your browser. **What it isn't** It isn't financial advice or a price prediction. The signals are historical tendencies from a few years of data, and Kaspa hasn't been around long. Treat it as a way to stick to a plan, not a crystal ball. **I'd love feedback** * Are the network comparisons fair? If a spec is wrong, tell me or open a GitHub issue. * Are there indicators that you would like to add or tweak? * What would make it more useful for how you buy or mine? * Devs: PRs welcome. It's plain JavaScript with no build step. It's free and will stay that way. If it helps you, feel free to use and share with others. If you feel inclined to support the project, there is a "Donate KAS" button in the app that creates a payment request that you can scan using your wallet. But please don't feel obliged. Thanks to everyone building in this ecosystem. 🙏 *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Ferdo306

I'm balls deep into crypto But I don't know a single person using crypto on a daily basis. As opposed to LLMs which everyone uses including my 70y old mom. To be fair, she also holds BTC and ETH so perhaps she's not a benchmark

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Post is by: Current_Twist_5363 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: https://vipmap.2324678.com/ Ethereum developers have postponed the "Glamsterdam" upgrade on the Hoodi testnet following the discovery of potential security risks in existing smart contracts, leaving the activation date for this major development milestone currently undetermined. This decision comes as the price of ETH fell below $2,400, marking a decline of approximately 0.5%. The Ethereum Foundation announced last night that the Hoodi testnet upgrade, originally scheduled for October 26, has been delayed. Developers require additional time to study how proposed changes to gas pricing might impact smart contracts already deployed on the Ethereum mainnet. No new date for the testnet upgrade has been announced, and plans for the mainnet upgrade remain undecided. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

HoldCtrlW

$2340 ETH, finally broke-even on my short

devCheckingIn

And consider that's with a ton of ETH being bought up by BitMine. Though in fairness BTC's 5-yr chart doesn't look good vs. other assets either, despite all of the DAT accumulation. The price of these things is mostly set by gigantic institutional leverage trading now (i.e., paper). So all of the fundamentals and tokenomics and supply caps don't really matter.

SpontaneousDream

eth/btc has erased 3 months of gains. [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHBTC/?timeframe=ALL](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHBTC/?timeframe=ALL) \-56% in the past 5 years, up only 60% in the past 10 years. I expect the 10 year chart to turn negatively eventually, as it has before. From there, .02 is the big level to watch. Once it goes hard below there then I can see the bleed out accelerating to ICO price. I honestly don't understand why anyone holds ETH anymore given the fact it has zero buybacks and (effectively) zero burns. It's a protocol that isn't money and makes barely any revenue. Save my comment, it's going much lower long term. RemindMe! 5 years

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Post is by: Holywizy and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1xe5low/arthur_hayes_just_sold_his_entire_trading_book/ Full breakdown with a chart of what he sold: https://holywizy.com/blog/arthur-hayes-sells-22-million-crypto-bitcoin-below-81k/ Quick summary: Hayes says Maelstrom closed all directional positions. Lookonchain estimates about $22.3M sold, with ETH by far the biggest chunk. He says macro and geopolitics look "a bit dicey", that the market may need to go down to go up, and that he'll sit on the sidelines for now. Only nine days ago he said he was long BTC and ETH. At the same time, BTC is hovering around $81K, and Bitcoin ETFs saw about $635M of outflows on Oct 22 alone. Do you think he's right this time, or is this a classic Hayes flip before a bounce? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

utilitycoder

Bollinger Bands come to mind. Just don't know which way they'll break but the longer it's compressed the bigger the move. Remember when ETH was stuck in a range for months and then skyrocketed. Same idea.

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Post is by: Huge_Position890 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: https://bitdataview.com/ \- \*\*Where we left off.\*\* Two weeks ago I posted about our live "order absorption" card. When a big taker order pushes the price, 2 minutes later the move has either faded (absorbed) or held (pierced). About half fade, half stick. I ended by saying I couldn't show it predicts anything. \- \*\*What I did.\*\* I rebuilt the card's exact logic on Binance's public trade files and made a ledger of every big order: 1,045,082 orders on BTC, ETH and SOL, Apr 2023 – Sep 2026. \- \*\*Coin flip, three and a half years later.\*\* The median day still sits at 49.9% absorbed. \- \*\*The pre-registered question:\*\* when an order pierces, does the price keep going? \*\*No, it gives a little back.\*\* About −1 bp over the next 15 minutes (t −3.6 for pierced minus absorbed) and −1.8 bp over an hour. Absorbed orders stay put. \- Same sign on all three coins; clear after the spot ETFs. \- \*\*Size of it:\*\* 1–2 bp against 20 bp of round-trip fees. Not a trade. It changes how to read "the wall just broke". **The ledger** \- \*\*Source:\*\* Binance publishes every aggregated trade at [data.binance.vision](http://data.binance.vision), with checksums. \- \*\*Same logic as the card:\*\* each hour, the top 1% of trades by size in the first 50 minutes. Look 5 seconds later (did it push the price?) and 120 seconds later (did the push fade?). \- \*\*Check:\*\* for 20 October, 124 of the live card's 137 windows came out identical. The other 13 were within 3 orders; the live job starts its window a few seconds off. \- \*\*Sample:\*\* \- the 8th and 22nd of every month, Apr 2023 – Sep 2026: 84 days; \- BTC, ETH, SOL: 252 coin-days. \- \*\*Why not earlier:\*\* Binance's zero-fee BTC period (Jul 2022 – Mar 2023) inflated trade counts, so it's skipped. The three-week coin flip from the last post holds over three and a half years: median day 49.9%. \*\*One correction to the last post.\*\* I said the per-pair rows in a single hour are "best read as noise". I've since checked against 30 days of the live card. Hours swing about three times more than sampling noise alone would allow, so some hours really are different. Only the thin rows (fewer than \~30 orders) are about half noise. **The test** The natural reading of "pierced" is that a wall broke and the price will run. \- \*\*My research partner\*\* expected exactly that, from watching the card during a rally. \- \*\*I wasn't sure.\*\* Big orders tend to be followed by more orders the same way, which pushes for continuation. But the last post also found that a big trade's impact peaks around 120 seconds and then decays. A price that is still far out at that point may just be impact that hasn't faded yet. Written down and committed before computing anything: \- \*\*Measure:\*\* the price move from 2 minutes after the order to 15 minutes later, in the order's direction. Each price is a 10-second volume-weighted average, to soften bid-ask bounce. \- \*\*Statistic:\*\* pierced minus absorbed, averaged per coin-day, then over the 84 days. Newey–West t. \- \*\*Calls:\*\* \- t ≥ 2 → continuation; \- t ≤ −2 → reversal; \- in between → nothing. \- \*\*Null:\*\* within each coin-day, shift the label sequence in time. This keeps the clustering of pierced and absorbed orders but breaks their link to the future. \- \*\*Power, checked first:\*\* with no real effect the test fires 5.0% of the time; a 0.5 bp difference is caught 88% of the time. \- \*\*Predictions:\*\* \- partner: continuation; \- me: continuation 40%, nothing 35%, reversal 25%. **Result** | next 15 minutes | move in the order's direction | |---|---| | after \*\*pierced\*\* orders | \*\*−1.06 bp\*\* (t −3.0) | | after \*\*absorbed\*\* orders | +0.04 bp (t 0.2) | | \*\*difference\*\* | \*\*−1.47 bp, t −3.6\*\* (null 95%: 2.1) | \- \*\*Per coin:\*\* BTC −1.1 bp (t −3.2), ETH −1.1 (t −1.9), SOL −2.2 (t −2.9). \- \*\*ETFs:\*\* after the spot ETFs, −1.6 bp (t −3.5). Before them it points the same way, but there are only 19 days (t −1.2). \- \*\*60 minutes:\*\* pierced orders give back 1.8 bp; the difference is −2.3 bp (t −2.5). Both of us missed. Reversal was my least likely call. **Reading it** \- \*\*"Pierced" at 2 minutes is not a breakout signal.\*\* On average part of that extra move fades. This fits the decay found last time. \- \*\*Why can't I tell the cause?\*\* Two explanations fit equally well: temporary impact decaying, or the 2-minute price being slightly "too far out" and drifting back. Either way, the extra move fades. \- \*\*The bounce isn't doing it.\*\* On BTC and ETH, bid-ask bounce is far below 0.1 bp, so it can't produce this. SOL's coarser tick may add a little. \- \*\*In a rally, prices keep going anyway.\*\* That's the trend, not the piercing. Trending days are in the sample, and the average still comes out as "gives back". **Mistake** \- \*\*One of my pre-registered side cuts looked ahead.\*\* It was "remove each hour's drift". The hour's average included the very price moves that define the labels, which pushed the result down mechanically (t −11). \- \*\*Discarded and logged.\*\* The main test isn't affected: each order's window starts after its own 2-minute mark. **Limits** \- 3 large coins, one exchange, 2 days a month. \- Orders within an hour aren't independent; inference is per day for that reason. \- 1–2 bp is far below fees. This describes price behaviour; it isn't an edge. \*Not financial advice. This is a research log.\* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

jawni

They already are: 1. [Bitcoin miner Core Scientific to sell bulk of BTC holdings in 2026 to fund AI pivot](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-03-03-bitcoin-miner-core-scientific-to-sell-bulk-of-btc-holdings-in-2026-to-fund-ai-pivot-391967) 2. [In the past month, IREN Limited reported its fiscal 2026 results and highlighted a transition of its sizable Bitcoin-focused data center capacity toward AI compute workloads, underpinned by new multi-year AI Cloud agreements and ongoing contract expansions with major customers including Microsoft.](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/did-iren-pivot-bitcoin-mining-150655271.html) 3. [Bitfarms Pivot To AI Data Centers Raises New Questions For Investors](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitfarms-pivot-ai-data-centers-231042885.html) 4. [Terawulf CEO on pivoting the business from crypto mining to AI data center supplier](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/24/terawulf-ceo-on-pivoting-the-business-from-crypto-mining-to-ai-data-center-supplier.html) 5. [Cipher Digital loses $114 million in Q1 as bitcoin miner accelerates AI data center pivot](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-05-05-cipher-digital-loses-114-million-in-q1-as-bitcoin-miner-accelerates-ai-data-center-pivot-400034) 6. [Why Hut 8 (HUT) Is Up 5.2% After Pivoting Toward AI Data Center Infrastructure](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/why-hut-8-hut-5-111022243.html) 7. [HIVE Digital accelerates AI infrastructure push with $1.7 million Canada data-center land deal](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2025-11-03-hive-digital-accelerates-ai-infrastructure-push-1-7-million-canada-data-center-deal-377306) 8. [Bit Digital Pivots to “Strategic Asset” Model, Goes All-In on ETH and WhiteFiber AI Infrastructure](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bit-digital-pivots-strategic-asset-020820479.html) 9. [CleanSpark (CLSK) Is Up 13.7% After Pivoting Into AI Data Centers And Hyperscale Hosting - Has The Bull Case Changed?](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cleanspark-clsk-13-7-pivoting-131801068.html) 10. [Riot Platforms' pivot from bitcoin mining to AI data centers is 'encouraging,' analysts say](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2025-01-21-riot-platforms-bitcoin-mining-ai-data-encouraging-analysts-say-336129) 11. [Why MARA Holdings (MARA) Is Up 19.4% After Selling Bitcoin To Cut Debt And Pivot To AI](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-mara-holdings-mara-19-230428211.html) 12. [DMG Blockchain pivots Bitcoin miner to AI data centre amid revenue slide](https://disrupts.disruptsmedia.com/ai-ml/dmg-blockchain-pivots-bitcoin-miner-ai-data-centre-amid-revenue-slide) 13. [Vulcan Infrastructure and Power, formerly Greenidge Generation Holdings, announced Monday that it agreed to raise about $39.4 million through a private investment in public equity transaction. The company also changed its legal name as part of a planned shift from bitcoin mining toward AI/HPC infrastructure.](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/greenidge-generation-renames-vulcan-infrastructure-132807620.html)

jawni

nah... I was talking about all of these: [Bitcoin miner Core Scientific to sell bulk of BTC holdings in 2026 to fund AI pivot](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-03-03-bitcoin-miner-core-scientific-to-sell-bulk-of-btc-holdings-in-2026-to-fund-ai-pivot-391967) [In the past month, IREN Limited reported its fiscal 2026 results and highlighted a transition of its sizable Bitcoin-focused data center capacity toward AI compute workloads, underpinned by new multi-year AI Cloud agreements and ongoing contract expansions with major customers including Microsoft.](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/did-iren-pivot-bitcoin-mining-150655271.html) [Bitfarms Pivot To AI Data Centers Raises New Questions For Investors](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitfarms-pivot-ai-data-centers-231042885.html) [Terawulf CEO on pivoting the business from crypto mining to AI data center supplier](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/24/terawulf-ceo-on-pivoting-the-business-from-crypto-mining-to-ai-data-center-supplier.html) [Cipher Digital loses $114 million in Q1 as bitcoin miner accelerates AI data center pivot](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-05-05-cipher-digital-loses-114-million-in-q1-as-bitcoin-miner-accelerates-ai-data-center-pivot-400034) [Why Hut 8 (HUT) Is Up 5.2% After Pivoting Toward AI Data Center Infrastructure](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/why-hut-8-hut-5-111022243.html) [HIVE Digital accelerates AI infrastructure push with $1.7 million Canada data-center land deal](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2025-11-03-hive-digital-accelerates-ai-infrastructure-push-1-7-million-canada-data-center-deal-377306) [Bit Digital Pivots to “Strategic Asset” Model, Goes All-In on ETH and WhiteFiber AI Infrastructure](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bit-digital-pivots-strategic-asset-020820479.html) [CleanSpark (CLSK) Is Up 13.7% After Pivoting Into AI Data Centers And Hyperscale Hosting - Has The Bull Case Changed?](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cleanspark-clsk-13-7-pivoting-131801068.html) [Riot Platforms' pivot from bitcoin mining to AI data centers is 'encouraging,' analysts say](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2025-01-21-riot-platforms-bitcoin-mining-ai-data-encouraging-analysts-say-336129) [Why MARA Holdings (MARA) Is Up 19.4% After Selling Bitcoin To Cut Debt And Pivot To AI](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-mara-holdings-mara-19-230428211.html) [DMG Blockchain pivots Bitcoin miner to AI data centre amid revenue slide](https://disrupts.disruptsmedia.com/ai-ml/dmg-blockchain-pivots-bitcoin-miner-ai-data-centre-amid-revenue-slide) [Vulcan Infrastructure and Power, formerly Greenidge Generation Holdings, announced Monday that it agreed to raise about $39.4 million through a private investment in public equity transaction. The company also changed its legal name as part of a planned shift from bitcoin mining toward AI/HPC infrastructure.](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/greenidge-generation-renames-vulcan-infrastructure-132807620.html)

Babad00k123

How does Fork Coins like BCH and ETH Classic still hold any value? Like who is buying a copy of a chain?!

Conscious-Pizza5469

Alts are basically BTC with the volume turned up. It drops a little, they drop double, it pumps and they barely move. BTC dominance has been stuck around 58-60% for most of the year and the altseason index hasn't gone anywhere near 75. I'm mostly BTC and ETH now, the rest isn't worth the stress.

toniistheworst

Yes you are right about BNB, this one actually is an overperformer and ETH is all over the place. I just can't bother mentioning these very few exceptions because it doesn't change the point that you're pretty much guaranteed to be worse off when investing in altcoins and holding them for such a long time. It's like finding the needle in a haystack. And yes of course I excluded the coins that haven't existed for so long. Solana can pull it off I guess, we'll see. But then again, what are the odds of you catching these few coins out of hundreds of thousands? It's just much easier and less stressful to dump your money into Bitcoin longterm and that's it :D

BigVermicelli2757

Honestly the boring advice is the right one: only put in what you'd be fine losing, stick to BTC/ETH while you learn, and move coins off the exchange once the amount starts to matter. Everything else you'll pick up by watching the market for a few months.

jawni

idk what they're talking about but the stablecoin market cap has been steady at $300b. Looks like ETH and BSC have seen a bit of a drop, HYPE and Tron have had steady increases and SOL has been up and down but is generally trending up. Everything else is relatively insignificant in size. (all of these being measured from 12 months ago) I think this is just people moving their funds elsewhere. https://defillama.com/stablecoins https://defillama.com/stablecoins/tron https://defillama.com/stablecoins/solana https://defillama.com/stablecoins/ethereum https://defillama.com/stablecoins/hyperliquid-l1

GothicCrow

Freedom just mirrors the society you live in. Nobody forces the Joe to be a greedy idiot looking for "get-rich-schemes", nobody forces to hold them something outside of BTC/ETH/XMR with lower volatility and low profits. While idiots got scammed, people in Iran or Russia got the opportunity to move money around without the US censorship; people in EU to save some money from outrageous taxation; etc. Decentralization is like a gun or drugs legalization - you can live a proper life with it or make a shooting/an overdose, you need brains and responsibility.

HoldCtrlW

I shorted ETH again at $2340 if it goes up again I am going to be so mad. I just broke even

Mary_Stewart11

The energy rental thing isn’t a scam, that’s just how Tron works. TRC20 transfers eat Energy, and if you don’t have TRX staked you either burn some TRX or rent energy for that one tx. It’s basically a flat fee per transfer, so on $20 it looks insane and on $2k you wouldn’t even notice. ETH gas is the same deal btw, doesn’t care how much you’re sending (it just depends on how busy the network is). What would’ve saved you all this: check which network the payment page actually wants before buying anything. USDT on Tron and USDT on Ethereum have the same ticker but they’re separate tokens, and most checkouts only take one.

fleshN2gear

ambushed by people who didnt even want to imagine the benefits of a decentralized, anoymous mainnet with a solana side issuance that allows the privacy coin to become tradeable because otherwise most CEXs and DEXs dont accept privacy coins for trade. But, they do allow wrapped privacy coins or 1:1 issued tokens that already have the infrastructure built to become stakable, and used for arbitrage profiting by day traders. which will keep the two coins closer in price than hey otherwise would be. No to mention the propsed future developments like **ull-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++):** Upgrades the anonymity set from 16 to the entire blockchain history. **Benefit:** Renders statistical deanonymization and chain-analysis attacks computationally infeasible while optimizing proof sizes for faster node verification. **Seraphis and Jamtis Protocols:** A next-generation transaction protocol restructuring how view keys operate. **Benefit:** Significantly improves the security and usability of multi-signature (multisig) wallets, light-wallet servers, and subaddresses. **Decoy Selection Upgrades (OSPEAD):** A mathematical framework to optimize decoy outputs. **Benefit:** Counters sophisticated analysis firms by ensuring the algorithm picks decoy outputs that perfectly mimic the spending habits of real users, preventing timing or clustering heuristics. **Native Atomic Swaps:** Trustless cross-chain exchange protocols built directly into the desktop wallet. **Benefit:** Bypasses centralized exchange delistings and KYC requirements, providing censorship-resistant liquidity and decentralized fiat off-ramps (e.g., swapping native FRG for BTC or ETH). **Rust Node Migration:** Rebuilding the C++ daemon into a modular, memory-safe Rust architecture (similar to Cuprate). **Benefit:** Eliminates C++ memory vulnerability risks, modernizes the codebase to attract new developers, and simplifies native integrations with the Solana Token-2022 Oracle bot and other Web3 infrastructure. I had roadmapped to eventually provide multilayer functionality, eventually culminating with cell data aggregation by individuals cellphones. the phone does the aggregation and they are give rewards for ProofusefulWOrk, incentivizing their continuing use of the collectiong app. while the data is sent back to the main network servers which are rewarding people for storage capacity, as thats where the data will be encrpted and stored so that the data can be commercially packaged and sold to various companies looking for GPS data, Cell Service Data, Acellerometer and Gyroscopic data. The they can use to calcualte cell outage areas, poor road conditions across fast distances, areas of roadway where people drive erratically etc. All datat points that can be used by government agencies and private coorproations to efficiently fix roads, service areas, map out lanscapes in 3D for developers etc. I dont understand how you guys can consider this just another pointless project... im not trying to keep ledgers of transactions. im trying to facilitate the safe transfer of data and commercialize it while also providing decentralized and anonymous monetary transactions, facilitate staking and guaranteed returns. all on the same network. yall seem to be under the impression i hobbled together an idea to try and print money. which is incredibly insulting

CheetahLoose7514

Depends why you’re selling. If you just want fewer coins, I’d keep the bigger ones like ETH and SOL and cut the small stuff first. IQ is tiny and way more likely to fade out. Also check which ones you’re up or down on before selling, since that changes how much you’ll owe in taxes.

Huge_Position890

All fair points, so I ran the two I hadn't done. As before, the rules and my guesses were written down first. **1. Counterfactual.** Done in the reply above. Seven coins with no ETF at the time thinned too, and so did their BTC-independent part. ETH's own ETF date added nothing, and placebo dates show "breaks" as well. So it's a regime change, not an ETF effect. **2. Robust scale.** I re-counted without GARCH, scaling each hour two ways: by trailing 7-day realized vol, and by a 30-day median absolute deviation. |per 30 days, before → after Jan 2024|trailing 7d vol|30d MAD| |:-|:-|:-| |hours beyond 4σ|6.3 → 5.2 (ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.71–0.99)|23.2 → 15.3 (0.66, 0.50–0.89)| |hours beyond 6σ|2.1 → 1.2|9.0 → 4.4| |Hill α|2.31 → 2.66 (+0.34, CI +0.20 to +0.49)|2.10 → 2.49 (+0.39, CI +0.20 to +0.55)| The thinning survives. But you're right that the size depends on the estimator: GARCH gave \~1.7x fewer 4σ hours and \~2.8x fewer 6σ hours, and robust scales give roughly 1.2–1.5x and 1.7–2x. I'd quote it as a range. **3. Bai–Perron.** I ran a mean-shift model on the monthly rate of 4σ hours, allowing up to 5 breaks with 15% trimming and choosing the number by BIC. BIC picks **zero** breaks for BTC under both scales and for the control average. If I force a single break anyway, it lands in Dec 2020 under MAD scaling, Sep 2023 under trailing vol, and Jul 2021 for the controls. None of those is significant (sup-F 2–7) and none is at the launch. By your criterion the ETF story weakens. The before/after difference is real, but it looks like a slow drift or regime, not a step on an ETF date. **4. Drying volume.** Agreed on direction: no tilt. One nuance from my data: it didn't widen the next move either. The next day was narrower in absolute terms (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%) and no different relative to current volatility. In my sample it's a state that mostly says "it's quiet."

Huge_Position890

All fair points, so I ran the two I hadn't done. As before, the rules and my guesses were written down first. **1. Counterfactual.** Done in the reply above. Seven coins with no ETF at the time thinned too, and so did their BTC-independent part. ETH's own ETF date added nothing, and placebo dates show "breaks" as well. So it's a regime change, not an ETF effect. **2. Robust scale.** I re-counted without GARCH, scaling each hour two ways: by trailing 7-day realized vol, and by a 30-day median absolute deviation. |per 30 days, before → after Jan 2024|trailing 7d vol|30d MAD| |:-|:-|:-| |hours beyond 4σ|6.3 → 5.2 (ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.71–0.99)|23.2 → 15.3 (0.66, 0.50–0.89)| |hours beyond 6σ|2.1 → 1.2|9.0 → 4.4| |Hill α|2.31 → 2.66 (+0.34, CI +0.20 to +0.49)|2.10 → 2.49 (+0.39, CI +0.20 to +0.55)| The thinning survives. But you're right that the size depends on the estimator: GARCH gave \~1.7x fewer 4σ hours and \~2.8x fewer 6σ hours, and robust scales give roughly 1.2–1.5x and 1.7–2x. I'd quote it as a range. **3. Bai–Perron.** I ran a mean-shift model on the monthly rate of 4σ hours, allowing up to 5 breaks with 15% trimming and choosing the number by BIC. BIC picks **zero** breaks for BTC under both scales and for the control average. If I force a single break anyway, it lands in Dec 2020 under MAD scaling, Sep 2023 under trailing vol, and Jul 2021 for the controls. None of those is significant (sup-F 2–7) and none is at the launch. By your criterion the ETF story weakens. The before/after difference is real, but it looks like a slow drift or regime, not a step on an ETF date. **4. Drying volume.** Agreed on direction: no tilt. One nuance from my data: it didn't widen the next move either. The next day was narrower in absolute terms (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%) and no different relative to current volatility. In my sample it's a state that mostly says "it's quiet."