IMO

AInception

No, very likely you're thinking of Nanci Pelosi whose husband is a hedge fund manager. She constantly outpreforms the S&P and her name is synonymous with insider trading. But IMO it's the result of propaganda that her name alone is associated with insider trading. A dozen other congresspeople outpreform her by 2X each year without hedge fund insights. Kind of wild to see that reaches people not in the US. Anyway, Warren was the chairwoman who implemented the bank/financial safety measures after the 2008 global financial crisis. She became a senator and spent her years nailing bank execs on their fraud. Then she took a HARD stance against cryptocurrency and its deregulated nature, and quickly started working *with* big banks to work their same KYC/AML/yield etc. regulations into crypto -- while forcing banks to not work with crypto companies who wouldn't or honestly couldn't. She's frequently involved in targeting small indie crypto teams rather than going after the larger one's doing the same thing and actually harming people; a team of 3 teens with a hobby project over Do Kwon (Luna) raking in billions. So she can cheaply/easily (unfairly) set the legal precedent that would affect the entire industry, knowing the indie teams can't afford lawyers and must cede/settle on far overreaching terms that would otherwise be argued out of court. Lots of people involved with crypto really hate them both. :P But for different reasons. ^*The more you know.*

AutoModerator

Post is by: Express-Potential485 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1r3enc7/the_cycle_within_the_cycle_a_quick_breakdown/ A lot of people may not know of the money flow cycle within the crypto cycle. Veterans know the basics but perhaps not quite as detailed as i’m going to present to you briefly. the basics: money flow into first - btc ➡️large caps ➡️ mid caps ➡️ small caps ➡️ privacy coins ➡️ market bleeds…… ➡️ memes ➡️ more bleeding ➡️ bitcoin and repeat memes are up next… now this cycle not only works for the macro entire cycle… but it also works on smaller time frames down to the minutes. you can see it in action if you know what to look for and quickly switch from one sector to the next as the last focus starts to drop. try it out. i also have a theory that since this happens on smaller time frames, and the cycle as a whole…. perhaps it works over multiple cycles and each cycle has a focus. this was the bitcoin focused cycle. infrastructure was laid, blah blah. the next full bull market in my theory, will be a large cap focused cycle. mainly ethereum and solana and a few others… within these “focused” cycles every thing else still applies, its just that we are running that very same cycle listed above on like a 40 year cycle instead of 4. not necessarily 40, but im sure you understand. so next cycle will establish the big players like eth and solana and a few others surely will arise to the top, cementing their place in the new financial infrastructure. chainlink likely will play a massive role in the next run IMO. so with this theory, that means that if the current run is over… the next run will be large cap focused, then 8 years from now will be the Alt season focus cycle. 12 years from now, small cap focused. every tom dick and harry will have a project and they all will moon. at this point crypto is engrained in our society. 16 years from now…. some sort of event will happen, geopolitics and police state dystopia becomes more and more of a threat. quantum computers are powerful… this is the privacy coin cycle focus shining through. it’s at this point that Zcash replaces bitcoin fully and completely 😎 not even joking about that last part. might even happen sooner… as in next cycle. but more likely will come in that cycle in 16 years from now. it just makes sense. 20 years from now, everyone and their momma uses crypto, all sorts of stuff is popping up… meme season cycle will be upon us. anyway, thoughts? if you take a step back overall it makes sense. also… zcash is 100% replacing bitcoin. i see the future… the method is technical analysis. you can learn how to as well. ask away if you have questions or need explaining. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

bbqyak

In general that's all you can do. Nobody can ever time the bottom perfectly. That being said, we still have a long way to go IMO I wouldn't be throwing my wallet at this "dip" just yet.

DryTechnology5224

I believe it will squeeze, but from lower levels. We haven't seen the bottom yet IMO

easauer

Will it stabilize in the near future? No. But it will stabilize eventually. Will it ever replace fiat currency? No. Not at least for hundreds of years IMO. But, its not going away. Anything new takes time. Think about adoption of computers and the internet. Was not overnight and a massive change to the global currency will take even longer. But, the fact that governments across the world are working on governing legislation to support it and banks are looking at how they can introduce crypto infrastructure to their business means it is taking hold as a permanent and viable currency. We are nowhere near mass participation so investing is still very lucrative in the right coins. Most of us aren't market players. Do research. Invest in what has been around long term and let it sit long term.

azdcaz

It’s a shitty headline. While Coinbase is blocking the bill, they’re blocking it because the big banks got their hands into this bill and are trying to weaken the crypto industry by banning yield. Coinbase is doing the right thing IMO.

JKimRX

For me, I really do think this is a chance to jump in early (yes, we’re still early) on a generational shift in how stores of value are exchanged Not so long ago, people used cash to pay for everything. Then came paper checks. It was unheard of, that someone could write a value amount on a piece of paper, sign it, and that paper was now worth said amount. Then credit cards and online banking. Again, crazy to think that a piece of plastic (with a chip) can access your funds. Next was peer to peer, like Venmo, CashApp, Zelle using mobile apps and mobile banking. Finance is always evolving and IMO, All of this is leading towards decentralized digital currency, with BTC as the backbone. I believe BTC hasn’t exploded yet because it’s not yet accessible for mass public, but it will be.

stefansilva_xrp

The issue is more to do with the bull market returns than the bear market. IMO.

KateR_H0l1day

I bought my first BTC at ~$44K, but it wasn’t my first crypto, I started mining HNT, which is what got me into crypto. Because I needed a wallet for my HNT, and eventually a way to sell, after research I selected CDC, and because of that, my second crypto I was buying, was CRO. Now my HNT Is in the toilet, but it’s mostly free due to mining (management just sucks), but I am well into the green with my CRO, even at these low prices! I’d high hopes for DOT & KSM, Yowzer, how wrong can you be, but I started buying SOL after the FTX crash, my average pice is ~$28.50, so obviously green there. I added to my BTC, am still green there and added more today, patience and a long term outlook is key in this game we’re all playing. The obvious 🙄 thing is; that it’s critical at what price you buy and average too, and the more blood in the streets, the more likely you are to end up with good profits. Just IMO of course 🤷‍♀️

ClassicusHD

First time? IMO don’t try and look at numbers to make sense of everything. I’m not saying you’re wrong(you’re right it sucks now), just speculating never brought me much joy personally. DCA, don’t invest anything you can’t afford to leave alone for 5+ years, and go enjoy life 🫂 But hey, if you like math, you-do-you.

whataboutbenson

Maybe it shouldn't do it, maybe it doesn't make any sense, but you only have to watch the price action to see that the four year cycle is still playing out pretty much perfectly. IMO it's the greatest evidence against the "efficient market hypothesis." In theory, yes, if it was that predictable, everybody would buy and sell at the same time and therefore destroy the cycle. But after you spend enough time in the community you see just how clueless retail largely are. Everybody consistently overthinks it, people place far too much importance on the news, especially US domestic news, people start getting into alts which are far less predictable, all kinds of narratives and stories become rampant, and people get either greedy or begin to despair and make irrational moves.

WIRED_REFLEX

Saying you're here in "good faith" and addressing folks as "Jesus Freaks" features some great dichotomy. Nobody forces you to believe in either, you are free to do as you will. Buy Bitcoin or not. Worship God or not. Chastising either group for their belief, regardless of how that belief was formed would be strange and presumptuous/judgmental IMO. I think the similarity you can identify here is that both demand submission as a prerequisite.

JumpedUpPantryBoyy

This is the smart thing to do IMO. In a S&P500, Total Market or All-World ETF, something like that.

RandomJoe7

Look, it's simple populism. MOST people do no have money to invest, so if you propose this to them, they think "nice, tax the rich!". It's an easy way to get votes from the general populace. People who have something to gain from it (the people receiving welfare etc) will always vote for stuff like this - and then call this theft "democratic" or "social". In reality this shit is extremely evil. IMO it's in the best interest of governments to keep its citizens as small/poor as possible, because nobody likes to bite the hand that feeds them. If most of your population is down bad, they'll keep voting for the socialist politicians who offer them more free stuff. It's a losing dynamic - which is why our western societies have gone down hill for the last decades.

Godrayoae123

IMO leverage is a fool game for 99% of those who try to play. This said, just protect your down side and the lesson won’t be too painful.

Snooke

As much as people see the limited supply of bitcoin as a selling point. In my opinion the fact that it is completely static is a massive drawback and will cap its value. Money / currency has value if it can be transacted. For it to be transacted there needs to be enough supply to do that. There will only ever be 21m bitcoins produced, but ultimately there will never be 21m bitcoins in circulation. Every day more bitcoin is lost into the ether. Cold storage is lost. Whales are hoarding. As the demand increases, you need enough moving through hands to allow people to buy and sell it. Paul Krugman talks about it in his masterclass. Not with bitcoin specifically, but how in some circumstances increasing the circulating capital is what allows an economy to grow transactions and therefore real GDP - sometimes without devaluing the currency. The argument is satoshis increasing the supply, but that assumes people will believe in valuations for a single bitcoin in the millions, which will only happen if enough people buy into it and for enough people to buy into it there needs to be enough bitcoin to transact. Its a circular problem but it caps the upside IMO. Gold and silver can be dug out of the ground and its not clear how much exactly there is which means it has a flexible, albeit scarce, cap on its available volume. Its not the same as having an absolute, knowable amount to ever be produced and an unknowable diminishing amount of available bitcoin in circulation every year after all 21m are produced.

Lurked_Emerging

I mean probably countries will have to block that kind of vertical monopoly. If a company can generate electricity to run and build it's own robot army without buying anything from anyone that starts looking like a country. Bitcoin would still be the currency of choice if fiat middle man ponzi/debt games are irrelevant to your economic model but if this happens we'd have other problems to worry about IMO. Bitcoin might shift their priorities to compete over hash but a lot of uncertainties at that point.

Calm-Expert-5414

In 10 yrs you'll have made 500% IMO

_father_time

I’m seeing a lot people thinking they are going to predict what Bitcoin is going to do. When I see that I think the opposite will happen. IMO the greatest asset in history is undervalued.

kobriks

Or it can be 18 months of pain instead. Which is IMO more likely

RoaringDragonSword

It depends on fully do you think ETH has been hammered enough last cycle, and for it to continue this cycle? I think ETH will climb over BTC in 2028-20230. This year, I hope it can go sideways or at worst double bottom at .017. That would set up next 3 years to outperform BTC and potentially reclaim what was lost last cycle. Primarily, monetary policy will favor ETH over BTC IMO.

JDVance-Goy

Bruh mfs always blaming shit on manipulation. IMO the reason this dip happened is due to the fact that the new fed chair wants rates and inflation to fall, so he is going to have to control the FED balance sheet to achieve this. There is a lot of uncertainty as to how this will impact M2 which is why gold, silver and btc all dumped like fuck.

No_Giraffe_4647

In a way it is hard and better to find a partner who share the same vision towards crypto investment.(we fall or rise together). Hopefully on my end I have flexibility to manage household investment as I see fit but I never tried to over expose us on anything especially cryptos. Now regarding the current price value it is more an entry point that exit point IMO

DBRiMatt

Solana is hardly competition for Etheruem, and will always be 2nd rate to that too. IMO, BTC will always be #1 in marketcap, there will be no flippening. But as I said, you can actually do a lot more with ETH, and that doesn't mean the ETH will have periods where it closes the gap with Bitcoin.

DangerHighVoltage111

> What do you think is the agenda for btc core not to change the protocol? Isn't it obvious? People freely transacting without the control of a custodian that can be easily coerced into submission by the state is the nightmare of every ruler. They took what was available to them (the 1MB spam limit) to stop the p2p cash usecase. And they succeeded. >Wouldn’t those with most to gain in btc adoption want the LEAST controversy around its development - they’d want less fragmentation Back was late into Bitcoin and why would he care anyway he can have all the dollars he wants. He got millions in funding for Block(the)stream and still hasn't delivered ANY profitable product. >The trilemma was authored by Vitalik originally - or is he also part of a conspiracy to keep btc on top? As I said, they took what was available. Why make your job harder and make people suspicious? The 1MB limit was already there, the idea of Bitcoin as gold was already in some minds. The trilemma was a nice compact info piece that could be used for propaganda. They just needed to push these and suppress other opinions. Which they did relentlessly. >If you really are at the technical level to know the best way forward, why aren’t you developing a fork and making the case? What is stopping the free market moving to a fork? Because that fork already exists. It got slandered to hell and back, price supressed and that was it all the opportunists and FIAT maxis wanted to be on the "winner" side. But it survived and is IMO our best chance for sound scalable p2p money. There are still a few p2p casher left in BTC. They are gathering around the Knots guys. But they are currently finding out what the Big Blockers knew since 2017. They are getting zensored and gaslight and are in a very weak position against the hijackers.

RandomJoe7

So, it's been a few months since my Post. And yes, I'm glad I sold everything. And if I want to, in addition to having taken profits, I can buy in a lot cheaper now (or even cheaper in the coming months, IMO). :)

brianmonarch

They really don’t say that anymore. I don’t think Swift is even on their to do list. And it’s technically not centralized. If ripple went out of business tomorrow and did not exist, XRP and the XRPL would still exist because ripple only runs one of the many nodes. All that being said, I don’t think it’ll do what the moon boys think it will. But I don’t think it’ll be going anywhere and it will have a better run than most when the next blow off top happens. Also there are advantages to having a company behind a coin. Look at Kaspa…. One of the most efficient and fastest coins out there with lots of retail interest, yet they still haven’t been listed on most of the top exchanges because they don’t have a company behind them to pay for it. Which has hurt its progress IMO. Anyway…. We’ll seeeee.

piggleii

“Rally” may last for a few days IMO NFA

TT_________

Personally I don't think this is the bottom either. IMO we will have a decent bounce 100k+ before bottoming out in the last half of the year.

jawni

I really do want to believe you're honestly trying to learn, but you should be updating your view much quicker if you're really understanding any of this. You basically glossed over my response and then doubled down on your own beliefs, which are backed up by nothing. >Rapidly decreasing validator count, I view as a bad sign, if there was some dotation system which ended and revealed naked truth, then why should I change my view? Because you're not understanding the nuance. First off, it doesn't seem like you understand that validators are not fungible entities, there are all sorts of validators, and having a million validators isn't necessarily better than having only 100 because you have to take into account far more context. With that in mind, you should maybe re-read my comment where I talked about those other factors, that context is what matters. If you really cared about decentralization, you'd be looking at these factors and likely holding a very different point of view. >The truth is it is expensive, people wrapped up, decentralization suffers. The chain is actually significantly more decentralized, like I already mentioned. There is 10x less stake from the foundation, independent validators are increasing. Client diversity constantly improving. Alpenglow update will make it more financially feasible as well. >Also there are rumors Solana runs substantial amount of the nodes itself - yeah, it is rumours. lol. Do you have... literally any sort of theory on this or any evidence? Have you even looked at, what you should know, is the very public validator list and even found *any* you suspect of being secretly ran by Solana? And why would they run their own validators when the delegation program obviously worked as well as it did? > Then there are all those bots inflating transaction metrics, including of those non-client transactions and damn memecoins where kids are creating tokens and then rugpulling each other - substantial part of Solana, IMO sign of decadency. bro... lets graduate from the grade school level FUD 1. Bots are not inherently bad, these are smart contract platforms after all. They are made for autonomous transactions, why do you think x402 and stuff like openclaw is such a hot narrative right now? I've never understood the "all bots = bad" argument, luckily it's an opinion not held by anyone of any esteem in crypto. 2. Every networks suffers from usage from bots that can be detrimental, not just Solana. Thinking only Solana has "bad" bots is just showing either your bias or your general lack of knowledge about the industry. Here is some reading for you to get caught up: https://x.com/bertcmiller/status/1934657926272307332 , https://x.com/chrischang43/status/1923835638261907921 , https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.01462 3. Even if you don't count vote transactions, Solana is smoking the competition. For reference, exactly one week ago, Solana processed 148m non-vote transactions. To put that into context, Solana did 30% more transactions in a single day then Cardano has done in its entire existence. And the amount of transactions over that week was as many as Ethereum has done in the last 2 years. (source: https://x.com/vibhu/status/2018368750408364174) 4. Memecoins exist on every network and the will continue to exist unless chains start censoring them. Your username is literally Decentralization-God so I'd think you'd understand this but maybe not, decentralization is a means to an end, not the goal itself. One of the qualities you want decentralization to bring, is censorship-resistance. Either you should be ok with memecoins existing, or you should quit pretending to understand and/or care about decentralization.

KateR_H0l1day

I like Alt’s, but not all of them obviously, so I’m buying bits here and there, it’s all about the price you buy and average out at, it’s fairly simple IMO 🤷‍♀️

Decentralization-God

I have read carefully your response, and honestly I am surprised you took the time and effort, I am upvoting it actually! (as a certain sign of respect). I am in no echo chamber but there were lots of information on problematic Solana aspects. You tried to explain some, OK, but the problem IMO remains. Rapidly decreasing validator count, I view as a bad sign, if there was some dotation system which ended and revealed naked truth, then why should I change my view? The truth is it is expensive, people wrapped up, decentralization suffers. If you are claiming 200nodes is enough, then I strongly disagree. Also there are rumors Solana runs substantial amount of the nodes itself - yeah, it is rumours. Then there are all those bots inflating transaction metrics, including of those non-client transactions and damn memecoins where kids are creating tokens and then rugpulling each other - substantial part of Solana, IMO sign of decadency. For me this all is a sign of problematic and controversial platform. But no, hard feelings, you see that differently, that is fine. Time will tell, because truth prevails eventually 🤔

Decentralization-God

I have read carefully your response, and honestly I am surprised you took the time and effort, I am upvoting it actually! (as a certain sign of respect). I am in no echo chamber but there were lots of information on problematic Solana aspects. You tried to explain some, OK, but the problem IMO remains. Rapidly decreasing validator count, I view as a bad sign, if there was some dotation system which ended and revealed naked truth, then why should I change my view? The truth is it is expensive, people wrapped up, decentralization suffers. If you are claiming 200nodes is enough, then I strongly disagree. Also there are rumors Solana runs substantial amount of the nodes itself - yeah, it is rumours. Then there are all those bots inflating transaction metrics, including of those non-client transactions and damn memecoins where kids are creating tokens and then rugpulling each other - substantial part of Solana, IMO sign of decadency. For me this all is a sign of problematic and controversial platform. But no, hard feelings, you see that differently, that is fine. Time will tell, because truth prevails eventually 🤔

favioswish

IMO it’s the largest guarantee of directional predictability of any asset in history besides knowing the dollar will go down. It’s played out near flawlessly for a decade and a half. Bitcoin may not care about the government, but people definitely care about what the government can do with their bitcoin, and bitcoin definitely cares about what people think about that. If that idea of independence and autonomy is broken because the government can now track every holding and exchange, that could very well amplify the drop and lessen the bull run. Especially if other governments around the world continue implementing similar policies

biophysicsguy

Ah, so you are DCAing now, that’s wise IMO. But if we don’t hit your buy target and BTC starts pumping I don’t see how $200/week gets you to your 30+ BTC goal.

favioswish

I was in 2012 and had this mindset once. Bitcoin was once an incredibly useful and unique asset. However, at least in my country, adoption has brought with it heavy regulation, market manipulation at a larger scale, and most importantly, strict tax law enforcement. IMO this has ruined a good bit of the advantages it had over other assets, which could very well erode its demand. That being said the cycle is a fact of how bitcoin is programmed not some myth

KateR_H0l1day

People are selling, institutions are selling, Blackrock is mainly a holding company in this case,saying Blackrock are selling is somewhat of a misnomer. The problem always envisaged with the ETF’s was that it was people who don’t understand crypto. They aren’t used to volatility, and would sell at the first sign of a dip, causing more panic and just like domino it falls until there are none left to sell. But, this also causes opportunity for those that do understand. Just IMO of course 🤷‍♀️

Acceptable_Deal_4662

This guy is defending deregulation of crypto. Which is crazy since you see a new case of fraud involving it at least once a week. IMO Elizabeth Warren has the right idea.

Old-Air-5614

Yeah, this is a real edge IMO, just underused because it’s harder than staring at charts. Top holder behavior often leads price, especially in smaller caps. I still use price/volume for confirmation, but if I see consistent accumulation or quiet distribution from key wallets, that matters way more to me than a clean pattern on a chart. The tricky part is filtering real intent vs noise.

AInception

I truly loved the idea of Bitcoin back in 2010 when I first got involved, but only grew more disappointed the more I saw and studied it. I don't hate it or love it today but I personally believe it was co-opted by malicious actors early on who tore up Satoshi's roadmap for selfish and short-sighted reasons. I'm not trying to be sanctimonious. I've just been thinking about this for a really long time and I'm out of ideas. I want Bitcoin to thrive. I'm mostly butthurt at the irreversible loss of its potential. You can't exactly launch a Bitcoin2 if this one breaks, and very few today care to take any risk seriously. My concern isn't consensus at all, least not around here. I think you might have meant something else? Most people deny it's even possible as if some physical law prohibits it, or say the markets **will** throw hundreds of trillions into BTC simply because they must for Bitcoin's sake, or governments will take over mining at a loss as if that was ever the point. Consensus isn't a good marker for truth when people are personally invested in maintaining the status quo either way. Regardless, without fundamentally changing Bitcoin the miner collapse is a mathmatical inevitably. The math is incredibly simple to do yourself making all kinds of assumptions, there are only a few variables to play with anyway. Don't trust, verify. The only thing that could really prevent such an event is if the price of BTC doubles each halving in perpetuity. Except it would have to become worth quadrillions of dollars (not adjusted for inflation) very quickly only to maintain today's security budget. The more-serious solutions being proposed now are: to migrate Bitcoin to a POS blockchain, delete the 21M max coin cap and continue on a fixed% inflation schedule, tax all BTC some% in perpetuity, or tax all non-moving BTC some% in perpetuity. None of those sound good IMO. On-chain scaling is too little too late at this point. Some hopefully less-serious proposals even suggested restarting the issuance schedule over again leading to a whole new 10.5M coin issuance in the first few years years after its implementation. That is precisely the flavor of short-sighted selfishness I've come to expect from these people, though, so who knows how serious that may really be. 99% of the temporary subsidy is gone today. >James O'Beirne (@jamesob) — Bitcoin Core developer: "We might have only two halvings left before this becomes a serious issue." >Nikita Zhavoronkov (@nikzh) — Founder of Blockchair: "It's now clear in practice that users won't pay large fees. Bitcoin needs to plan its security under the assumption that the fee rate will remain at 1 sat" >Justin Bons (@Justin_Bons) — Founder and CIO of Cyber Capital: "High fees price out all use cases, rendering it useless. Low fees endanger the security budget & are only a consequence of it never being used." If not for those terrible proposals that would destroy Bitcoin's narrative and value, or its market cap becoming worth quadrillions of dollars which is unrealistic.. What else could even prevent a miner collapse??

Stalva989

45k bottom. Anything below 60k is a great opportunity IMO

daflyguy739

25% chance they go bankrupt IMO. Everyone here claiming BTC would have to drop to $20k, and their bonds are not due until 2031, are showing how naive they are about standard business practices. If their share price keeps plummeting, their institutional investors can stage a hostile takeover or push for liquidation via legal avenues to recoup their investments. Tons of precedence for this in the business world. This is far from clear cut.

NOneHOne

Same. In fact, a couple times it was even worse IMO. Fantastic buying opportunity right now. I really don't think it's going a whole lot lower but what do I know? 200 week SMA is somewhere around 58k so that should be the point of resistance and likely the most realistic worst case scenario.

Civil_Atmosphere_885

I don’t know if the old rules ever really applied in a useful sense. From a hindsight POV it can be reconstructed in a way to make loose predictions about the future, but that prediction is only useful as we look back from the next cycle. Maybe once we get a few decades of data where you can correct for massive societal influences like a pandemic, rapid inflation, a major war, or the collapse of the primary reserve currency. IMO, this feels like the “young” Crypto market is just evolving, and adjusting to an unstable landscape. The economy is circling the drain, while the most inept leadership in history engages in a futile debate about which message sounds more nonsensical.

Freefall101

IMO it's all Warsh related. Nothing serious. Nothing stops this train.

AdAmazing8187

All the more reason for concern IMO

r3v3rb_1

This sub is amusing, and by no means alone. 90% of the posts I see are purchase flexes that seek internet validation while the other 10 are memes or random shower thoughts about how nobody else gets it yet and we are somehow geniuses. IMO, people here just tend to show signs of short-term aspirations and paper hands. I feel like I can probably tell within the first few words of a post, comment, or reply who is in their first cycle, who is overexposed, and who is just so insecure in their purchase that they need constant reassurance. There is a huge technical rabbit hole open to anyone who wants to jump down it. Once you "get it", you won't concern yourself with the price of BTC. You'll just focus on acquiring more sats. Heck, you may even be motivated to set up a node and support the network!

reliable35

BTC going to $35k-$45k range… Alts look bad now… but expect another… 80-90% fall from here… retail zero interest.. this is the the of Crypto IMO… retail never coming back..

Special-Age6210

Never held crypto, but I'll be averaging in, with leverage. Most likely to bottom at 50k within the next 3 weeks IMO

efermi

Ask yourself what has changed about BTC if anything. IMO, other than the quantum risk, nothing has changed, but many people are thinking about solutions for this. Bitcoin continues to be more decentralized and secure than before.

OpticallyMosache

IMO - If it falls to $35k or lower, buy as much as you can. I think a lot of prior cycle DCA'ers have an average cost basis around $35k. If those people can lower their cost basis, they will.

vb90

No, this is IMO more bearish. It's largely a market movement without an evident trigger from crypto itself (companies blowing up, SBF level frauds/ponzi's etc). It's a combination of the softer economy, overbought stock market and time-based capitulation in crypto. I think Trump was the chef's kiss. Hard to believe he managed to scam everyone with his term already.

Status-Nose-7173

Ooooooh yeah, now this is something to talk about. What do you think, hold somewhere around $62-$64k? Anything below that and all bets are off IMO. Then people will really have something to cry about haha.

Embarrassed-Cry-7215

Going much, much lower for a long time IMO.

BM7K

I see 100% plus returns on a simple buy and hold over the course of 18-24 months. Easy long term buying opportunity IMO

Unusual_Cranbery

You're very young so you have time to learn from this. There is a crypto project right now that's actually gone up during this crash. It's called HUNDRED and IMO it's better than every token you invested in 💯

stupidfuckingfreak

Man I bougbt last year at 82K(GBP), dont get disheartened - this is the percect time IMO. Buy low sell high my friend and no matter how low it goes, HODL

jawni

>SOL is bleeding pretty damn bad. yeah, that's the point behind this thread, everything is cheap, meaning unless the corresponding fundamentals dropped as much as the price, then it should be a more attractive asset. Solana is far and away the most competitive chain to ETH, it took the opposite approach to scaling which now looks even smarter as Vitalik is questioning the execution ETH's L2-centric roadmap, onchain metrics are already top of the industry but even then they've been improving, tradfi inflows are steady, RWA adoption continues to increase, Solana is still the preferred chain for most project launches and is generally the first place where emerging narratives and use cases proliferate(AI agents, DePIN, etc). Not to mention we're now 2 years away from the last outage, and since then 10+ other chains have had downtime(mostly ETH L2s and Sui), yet no one cares. New L1s have popped up, but none of them have really gained any traction. You had Plasma launched by Tether, Monad super hyped up, Tempo, Keeta, none of these are really doing anything, so it seems clear that the networks effects of Ethereum and Solana have given them a strong moat. I can't see any new L1s challenging them if the recent launches are trending this way and I doubt any old L1s will catch up. Outside of Solana lacking a more competitive perps protocol, there isn't really much specific weakness in the ecosystem. Solana has been steadily progressing towards the original North star of "decentralized NASDAQ", teams from other networks understand how important Solana is and now even L1 coins like MON, ZEC are getting put on Solana. Coinbase/Base has upped their Solana support, devs from Near(who are very respected) made SolSwap. Even if you kind of bearish on crypto in general, you should be extremely bullish on Solana relative to the industry IMO.

zenethics

It's real because people think its real. If some huge part of the trading public were treating moon cycles or astronomy as if it were real then it would be, because the chart is an aggregate of market orders and "that's a dumb reason IMO" doesn't mean it didn't lead to a buy or a sell, often in high volume.

Loose-Leather-8048

this crash reminds me of the deregulated market causing the real estate crash and frauds bundling up risky investments and selling them as if they arent. we have all these BS crypto ETFs going bankrupt that lived off this premise they just buy low sell high or whatever and its a recipe for disaster for them. It doesnt mean cryptos a pump and dump asset IMO. I know its not a house but plenty of people decided their mortgages were under water so screw that asset and someone bought the property cheap and now its worth way more. I've not been into crypto long but whats obvious to me is the cost of transaction fees on the system makes the companies purely making money off buying reserves and holding for highs and lows is a good way to tank the whole economy tethered to it and waste energy doing it. you can look at the rest of the market and its reactions to its volatility and see it is just as real and impactful an asset as any whether you believe in its function or not. like if you see a better investment opportunity than crypto I dont blame you for liquidating but just grabbing another hot reserve currency at a high price like gold that will eventually settle down is also stupid. how many people that bought gold even physically have it? the stock market is the same way it used to be a piece of paper saying you own stock. wow. a piece of paper. how can that be worth anything? a dollar is a stupid green piece of paper at the end of the day. its all a means for trade. the nationalist attitudes around the world is making trade harder with more fees which makes trading real goods less worth it for the buyer and seller. tariffs are bs fk that commie BS. let the best product win. if you want to make crypto more valuable treat it as a currency. let people pay you in crypto while it is down at market value.

octopus_limbs

Majority of bitcoin holders here IMO are whales that have been holding since before it hit 1000EUR so I think they are good

NecessaryComposer424

You have to be honest with yourself and cut all the BS out. BTC and all of crypto are apart of a hollow (no material use case) ultra risky asset class that ONLY thrives when the US government engages in quantitative easy aka turning on the money printers. IMO in the near term it holds value because the current administration is chomping at the bit to lower interest rates and jumpstart QE but long term I wouldn’t hold it, it’ll fissile out like most of the financial engineered markets.

62DoubleCab

Will settle between 40-50k IMO…possibly to 30’s. I’d wait.

cosmicselva

Yep. IMO tops not in I could be wrong, but my moneys where my mouth is Third “cycle” in for what’s its worth

Nossa30

IMO, once you have about $5-10K worth of BTC, it should probably be in your own wallet. Any less you would just be better off using that to buy more Bitcoin rather than buying a cold wallet.

LongBeachJohn

CAGR of roughly 18% is not worth the risk and volatility of BTC, IMO.

ReliantToker

Bear in mind the % you are using is SPY tapping ATH and BTC in a 40% drawdown, little misleading IMO.

TIC_UK

This is not advice, but IMO the most important thing for any new investors to consider when they are first getting into to crypto is to make sure they consider diversification across other asset classes in their overall portfolio. Crypto is an exciting and valid asset class to invest in, but it should be a very small part of your portfolio. Again, IMO. If you did want to learn more, we do have many general Crypto guides that you can check out here: [Crypto Pillar - The Investors Centre](https://www.theinvestorscentre.co.uk/crypto/) Regardless, I wish you the best of luck on your journey! If you have any more specific questions, please do let us know.

TIC_UK

Well straight away my main concern is BTC being 20% of your whole portfolio. This is not financial advise, as I am not a financial advisor, but crypto IMO should be a very minimal amount of your total wealth. It's great to own, and I have no issue with anyone owning it as part of their long term wealth build strategy, but 20% feels way too risky on something so speculative. It's hard to say what I would do in your position because I would not have made the decision in the first place. I do understand why this now concerns you debating whether to rebalance and lose on the drop etc. But moving forwards I would urge you to reconsider your allocation. Again not advice to do anything specific, just think about where your money is, and how much of it you are willing to be risky with in the future.

Seattleman1955

I'm tired of it and am now down to 1 BTC (from 6). I'll kept that one and just forget about it. I bought in 2021 (avg cost $48k) and did nothing but hold until the end of 2025 and sold 1 to reinvest in the stock market. This year I've sold 4 and reinvested that in the stocks market (and into gold). Since I bought BTC in 2021 it's gone down to $18k and up to $125k and now to $76k. My QQQ has outperformed my BTC over that time period. Gold has outperformed my BTC. It's just not worth it to me (I'm retired by the way). It's not that I need the money, I just don't see the story playing out to the extent that I need that much BTC in my portfolio. If it's just going to be a speculative asset that only does well during times of high liquidity...anything will do that. I'm not "panic" selling. It's just not a good risk/reward trade off for me anymore. Part of the Bitcoin as an asset narrative, IMO, is about "philosophical" assets (BTC) and financial assets (QQQ, VXUS, GLD). I put more emphasis on financial assets and not philosophical ones.

perceptual01

By no means am I pro binance but my USDC withdrawal on kraken took 15-20 min to process the other day. We going to write an article about that too? This is silly IMO

idkzoroqn

Lmao, “safer” compared to the memecoins that most people trade, IMO this is the safest option with all this lore.

Past-Young2217

Here’s the emotions….DCA’ing right now weekly over the next 6 months no matter which way the wind blows (mini bear) or (super cycle) is still the right answer. At 100+ people begged for this retracement, now that we are down 40% from ATH it’s “death”. I think IMO with “bull” not seeing any form of euphoria or blow off top this cycle that the “bear” will also be more muted. Will it go to 55-60k probably. Can it course correct here and will 70k be the floor..maybe. Either way, you will win if you don’t capitulate and keep stacking over time. This may expand your horizon a bit but for me 2032 gas always been my “end game” so this is just trying to get to the point I can get to my target of BTC which I am very far away and may not ever reach. To be fair, I think we see a reversal…we will see.

Polymatheia

Ngl I do kind of like this Always found it a bit on all the cheering on here about the 'crypto president' when he clearly didn't really care about it (IMO) and was just using it to get votes from younger demographics and grift (hence the TRUMP and MELANIA coins etc)

The_Brem

If you think it'll rebound then buy more. If you don't then sell now to prevent further losses. Only you can decide. I sold all my bitcoin in 2021 so I've been out of crypto for awhile but have been a user since 2012. IMO it won't rebound until the hash rate recovers, nations include it in reserves, and normal person utility increases. I think I'll start buying back in after the mid terms.

Mousa786

I’ve been using Tangem for everything for about 3 years now, including long-term holdings, and it’s been solid. It’s easy to use, secure, and there are no batteries or cables to fail, which is actually a plus for long-term storage IMO. And on the security/privacy side, Ledger and Trezor have both had data leaks in recent years, while Tangem has never lost user funds.

Nossa30

I would not be too worried. You bought at or near the bottom. It might dip a lil, but you bought at a good time IMO. Saying this as a 9 year hodler.

Ch0pin

It's only wrong if you get it right, but you're more likely to get it wrong than to get it right IMO

neksys

I’ve BEEN holding for 10+ years. Got robbed twice (Mt. Gox and Quadriga), made a million mistakes, won and lost on bets and learned a ton since I made my first buy in late 2013. BTC will always be a part of my holdings, but it’s so institutionalized and commodified now that I don’t see it ever becoming the “main currency”. I expect we will see blockchain technology become more and more interwoven in our day to day finances, but IMO there is no plausible path to total fiat replacement in our lifetimes.

PittFanIAm

IMO, financially you should buy/hold. It will pay off long term. However, psychologically, you’re not built for this. If you’re this shaken after this little hiccup, there’s no way that you’ll be able to buy/hold all of the way down and back up. You’re best off saving yourself the stress by getting out now. Note: That is in no way me talking shit on you. There’s probably something wrong with the ones (me) who can keep holding and happily keep buying through 70% dips.

angrySprewell

He's just talking about making an alt with bitcoin code IMO. This is garbage and a distraction.

Bagmasterflash

That is incredibly short sited. Although XMR started with very good privacy other coins have infinite time to develop comparable privacy whereas monero is stunted due to its design limitations. Better luck next time. r/bitcoincashautist, [Jan 13, 2023 at 10:09 AM] Monero achieves great privacy, I give it that, but it has to give up a lot for that, it is a trade-off: - There's no concept of an UTXO, because you can't tell which TXOs are spent and which are not. - Because of that, you can't prune much, and have to keep all TXOs ever made around for forever, and it can't be in some slow archive storage because TXs using ring signatures regularly reference a random pick from ALL historic TXOs so you need those readily accessible. This is the biggest scaling bottleneck IMO. Your blockchain "state" is the whole blockchain, as opposed to Bitcoin where only the UTXO set is the current state. - Wallet scaling, because of key blinding they need to process each TXO and do expensive CPU operations on it to check whether it belongs to them - as opposed to Bitcoin where you only need to do a simple pattern match. - Very limited programmability of (U)TXOs because any spending requires authentication by a key, and for many decentralized applications you can get rid of the keys and have UTXOs be spendable if some other conditions are satisfied. Satoshi gave Bitcoin a scripting system, programs encoded with the UTXOs and executed on spending. This is incompatible with Monero. - Auditability of supply. Breaking a cryptographic primitive used to blind the amounts would allow freely minting amounts without anyone knowing about it. - Long-term it will be broken by quantum computers, not sure whether there are drop-in replacements for all the primitives, and if there are it all gets huge so big impact on scaling. Bitcoin really only needs to do a few things: move from 256-bit to 384-bit hashes and upgrade signature opcodes + some scheme to transition. After '23 P2SH32 upgrade, it will be possible to lock BCH in quantum-proof contracts. Because of all that, I believe there's a natural adoption ceiling, lower than "p2p cash system for the world" win scenario we dream about with Bitcoin Cash. Adoption is hard. Monero has a smaller total addressable market but there it lies its advantage: it's the only player that has a product for those users, it's the best in class. Bitcoin Cash has a bigger total addressable market, but it has to compete against a lot of other coins.

h311s

IMO accumulate bitcoin for wealth use other coins for daily transactions which have faster transaction time & lower fees use XMR for privacy and this doesn't seem to change in the mid-short term yes xmr is very useful no harm holding a few

Robotoverlordv1

The fact that Epstein’s publicist spoke so ill of Sailor is a testament to Sailor’s good character IMO.

MulberryAcceptable39

IMO the crypto market didn’t like trump nomination of Earsh. Reider would have been received better.

CowDogRatGoose

Yea, but if you do that, you are selling your stocks at a low. Shuffling money around isn't the game. IMO. But, Good Luck!

AdFast1121

I don't believe in just one, thats scarcity mindset. But yeah, Warsh is absolutely biased towards things that actually benefit the financial system and aren't speculation only. If the token solves an actual problem and makes things more efficient it is way more likely to survive. ETH absolutely clears this bar IMO

Token_12345

IMO RWA coins and those with full adoption will hang around lomg term but 90% of altcoins are going to zero in the next 2 years. Bitcoin is being pumped by wall street now so it's a tool to make money so it will be useful until it's not and then it will get dumped across the board.

scott_in_ga

IMO the only real support is down below the 2022 lows, before all of the artificial sugar-high COVID spending helicopter money started: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/noeTZHms/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/noeTZHms/)

InformationOk6569

IMO dinner is overrated

BardosThodol

If that were to happen mining would become non-profitable but the majority of Bitcoin would have been mined already so it really wouldn’t matter. It’s been going that way anyway as necessary hardware demands exponentially increase the cost. At that point it’d become a reserve and likely used for specific purposes, even now it’s not as often used for normal transactions due to high gas fees. IMO Bitcoin did what was necessary already, which is spark the blockchain and subsequent evolutions/derivatives. Even if it wasn’t the monetary powerhouse it currently is (even at a fraction of its current value it holds more worth per a single unit than most other goods or currencies that exist) it’ll never lose its symbol as the father of the blockchain - that’s honestly why it’ll likely never get that low anyway ignoring the obvious ability to work the global prices easier than, let’s say, the stock exchange, which is always going to make trading/holding Bitcoin attractive to the opulently wealthy. Bitcoin was $20 at some point and was profitable because of abundance and prices of technology. Who’s to say a new processor won’t be out in a couple years that could make mining profitable again? Anything can happen really but very good point.

pnw_cartographer

Eh I would avoid Binance. Shady CEO and depending on the state you live in, you cannot use the app. IMO there are better options out there. Now if you’re try to buy some shit alt coin and need binance coins to convert then that makes sense. But using binance for btc? Nahh dog.

bobbyv137

You’re asking questions nobody has a definitive answer for. IMO it’s going much, much lower yet.

tomsmac

Yeah, I know. Nevertheless, IMO we’re going to see MSTR collapse.

islanda_1973

Eth will survive, tokenization of stocks, metals and RWA will be huge trilions will flow to them from countries where is very difficult to access these investments. But ETH will collect only breadcrumbs the real money will go somewhere else not to crypto. So with ETH inflation it could go a little bit up or down impossible to say but IMO it will not die, it could also flip btc in 10/15 years but it will be very sad

ArrivalEffective2848

Market is all over the place , hard to track IMO

Radiant_Ad4480

IMO we have hit the ALT for BTC this bullrun. Now we wait a couple of years until the bear market bottoms and then reinvest. If you start investing now, you'll see sufficient losses for the next few years IMO. Especially when you see everyone swapping into gold and the American dollar is at a 4 year low... Remember, at the beginning of this Bull run, BTC was under 17k! I'm guessing between 30k-45k next bear market. Unless you're looking to future trade(pulls/puts), but that's highly not recommended until you have a couple years of paper trading under you belt. ChillTrader on X is the person to educate yourself off of. His PnL, win/lose ratio is insane. He is NOT an influencer. He's a REAL trader. Anyone who promotes a coin is an influencer and knows nothing. The more followers, the bigger the influencer, the more money you'll loose because they will only tell you what you want to hear while they secretly dump on their followers, turning them into liquidity.

JohnnyStrides

That's a healthy amount, congrats! Time to get a Trezor (or other hard wallet) and get that off the exchange. You should have done this a while ago but there's no time like the present. You should still accumulate if that's the plan but every $5K or so ship it off the exchange to the wallet IMO.

SophonParticle

IMO it is following the pattern I saw during the dot com bubble where companies created an html website with a splash of JavaScript and got $10M funding to sell keychains. The market is maturing, filtering out losers, consolidation, finding real use cases (see Fidelity using stable coins)

audigex

IMO if you have less than 1BTC it’s not gonna be worth FU money in your lifetime (I also have less than 1BTC, I’m not judging or punching down here, just giving a view)