IMO

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Post is by: absurdcriminality and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1rp2h67/the_coinbase_premium_index_has_flipped_back_above/ I ran into this fact while reading a Bitmex [blog post](https://www.bitmex.com/blog/3-trades-5-March) about trading, and it seemed worth sharing. That’s also not the only positive indicator. Spot ETF flows are in the green as well. >Spot ETF flows have rebounded to more than $1 billion over the past week. BlackRock’s IBIT leads this with daily inflows above $275 million (Feb 24–26), reversing prior cumulative outflows. Even though the charts don’t look very good, indicators are slowly starting to signal a possible reversal IMO. What do you guys think? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

FilmDazzling4703

IMO there seems to be two categories of meme coins. First being hype projects that are trying to ride a wave, either a popular meme or like this a public figure who is getting attention. It seems like this is the majority of the meme coin space and I’m not surprised they burn fast and bright. The second are pure belief assets. Not claiming to have any use case as p2p cash or future utility. Just purely about collective power of individuals and conviction. There are less of these projects, and most of them don’t find a hold in the zeitgeist well enough to establish themselves. But imo the ones that do like SPX6900 are the best options in the meme coin space

minorthreatmikey

The idea is, the interest you pay is less than bitcoin’s average yearly appreciation. Mathematically it makes sense, but mentally, most people won’t be able to do it in practice. IMO, these loans are still WAYYYY too high of an APR. If you take out a loan and the loan is over-backed by your bitcoin, you should be paying 1 or 2% as there is essentially no risk to the lender. However we are not there and Bitcoin isn’t considered prestige collateral yet. That could change over the next decade, just keep stackin for now.

Many_Income_2212

Aside from scammers, if you don’t know how to do it, you **will ** get hit by AML - anti money laundering laws going on in almost every country right now. Meaning you won’t see that 100k. Better off going via a crook and a 10/15% cut IMO

Decentralization-God

Yep … Full agreement on this. Memecoins, Trump coins, Saylor madness, I think crypto or Web3 suffered some heavy reputational hits. It again is mainly Charles who openly talks about how retail people were screwed … Who else is talking like that? I mean critics to its own industry. This is a sign of authenticity and also builder mindset. But if Vitalik somehow restarts Ethereum then sure, I wish him all good too. 2026 and 2027 will be IMO decisive years for this industry. It will either step up or collapse …

wetokebitcoins

I hope she can get this done before she retires. IMO the deminimis is a REQUIREMENT for bitcoin to grow into the role of currency.

planetpluto3

You investment horizon is too short and adds risk. At 3+, it becomes almost risk less. But you have to stomach being in the red for some of that time. IMO, the bear market isn’t done. If you plan to buy and hold for longer, feel free to DCA. The “perfect” lump sum day isn’t here yet.

KateR_H0l1day

Yes it will, but there’s a choice of when to buy and at what price to maximize profit, because the buy in price is always the most critical point in any investment. The Preferred’s offer an alternative now, many are seeing this as an easy low risk at this moment in time, but that will change for many. But, many who don’t like volatility and risk will just keep going for the steady “guaranteed” returns. I personally believe that having this choice was an excellent move by Strategy, financial engineering where it wasn’t known, impressive move! Just IMO of course 🤷‍♀️

KateR_H0l1day

It’s the 🐻market driving people to STRC, once it starts turning 🐂, people will sell and buy BTC/MSTR directly. Just IMO of course 🤷‍♀️

BlackDog990

IMO the cycle exists (in some form) at this point because people think it does. Basically a self fulfilling prophecy at this point. Technically the halvings really don't matter a ton anymore since most btc has been mined. It's all about how traders behave.

roswellralph

HUT has a 10GW total pipeline capacity and is about to start building a 1 GW location in Texas. There is a lot of volatility, but the company is still wildly undervalued for the long term IMO.

Professional-Push680

Hold on tho - what if their situation isn't contextualized as you assume? It could be that he should thank his lucky stars she hasn't run for those same hills. Spending = an action that reveals one's priorities. IMO, everyone should get some personal, private funds to spend at their discretion, but what if he's burned thru that, they're close to broke, and their cats need fed? Bet you didn't think about that, did ya?

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Post is by: jvictor118 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1rmhsun/all_these_ai_trading_agents_are_either_bad_or_a/ I've been building software in fintech for about a decade (sold a trading infra company to Coinbase a few years back) and the current wave of "AI trading agents" is making me lose my mind. Every week there's a new bot promising autonomous trading powered by "proprietary AI." Of course most of them are just if/then rules hitting an exchange API with a ChatGPT skin on top. The industry even has a name for it now - "agent washing" - and it's gotten bad enough that the SEC started filing enforcement actions for people hocking fake agents. They charged two investment advisers in March 2024 for straight up lying about their AI capabilities, and by 2025 they'd set up an entire unit ("CETU") with AI washing as a priority. A founder raised $42M claiming his app used AI when it was literally contractors doing the work manually. The ArtificialIntelligence sub landed on a pretty good litmus test that I think everyone here should apply before touching any of these tools: 1. Does it take initiative, or does it wait for every instruction? If you have to tell it exactly what to do every time, it's a script with a chat UI. 2. Does it handle unexpected situations, or does it crash and need re-prompting? A real agent adapts when the plan breaks. A wrapper just fails. 3. Does it use external tools (APIs, data sources, code execution) or does it only generate text? Most "AI trading bots" are just generating text responses about markets. That's a chatbot, not an agent. 4. Does it remember context across a multi-step task without you repeating yourself? If every interaction is stateless, you don't have an agent. You have autocomplete. The reliability math alone should scare people. Carnegie Mellon built a benchmark (TheAgentCompany) that tested agents on realistic multi-step tasks. The best model they tested completed 24% of tasks autonomously. That's the best one!! And if you assume even 95% reliability per step, a 20-step workflow has about **a 36% chance of finishing without error**. Can't imagine trusting that with my portfolio. Meanwhile at Consensus Hong Kong this year, Bitget's CEO said the quiet part out loud: current AI trading bots are trained on limited historical data and fall apart when markets do something genuinely unfamiliar - like the 10/10 liquidation cascade. In these cases, the ones where your whole P/L is decided, human intervention is still fully required. **Here's what I think almost everyone in this space gets wrong:** They're trying to build agents that make trading decisions. IMO, that's the wrong problem to automate. The decision is the hard part. It's the part that requires judgment, risk tolerance, conviction, and context that no model actually has about your specific situation. Delegating that to an agent is how you get blown up. The right problem to automate is everything around the decision. The research, the monitoring, the risk math... the pattern recognition across your own trade history. The stuff that a serious trader does (or should be doing) but that takes hours and is brutally tedious to maintain manually. **Think about what a firm like Bridgewater does.** They don't have a magic algorithm. They have investment theses that research analysts refine over time and pressure-test against current conditions. A risk desk optimizing risk-return profiles. Analysts providing inputs to all the above based on their reading of current events. It's not a crystal ball - it's disciplined analysis compounding over time. That's the gap agents should be filling. Not replacing your judgment - augmenting your operation so you can make better calls with less manual overhead. Decision support, not decision making. It's not about a super-smart agent, it's about how smart you could be if you had the resources of a group at Citadel. **So I've been experimenting with this kind of thing over the past few months.** I have a multi-agent setup where each agent has a narrow, well-defined job - monitoring on-chain activity, running quantitative checks against my positions, watching for news and sentiment shifts in my specific holdings, tracking risk metrics I've defined myself. They share a common data layer so they're all working from the same picture of my portfolio. None of them execute trades. They surface information, flag anomalies, and make sure I'm not missing something obvious at 2am when I'm not looking at charts. It's early and I genuinely don't know yet whether this will meaningfully improve my returns or just be a simple way to feel informed. But so far it's been working really well - I regularly find myself acting on information I probably would never have noticed before. And the architecture feels right in a way that "autonomous trading bot" never did to me. The agents pass the 4-question test above - they use real tools, maintain context, adapt when data changes - and more importantly, I'm still the one making the call, just with a much better picture of what's actually happening. Curious whether anyone else has landed in a similar place - using agents for the support layer rather than trying to close the loop on execution. Or if the consensus here is still that the only valid use of automation in trading is fully systematic strategies with tight parameters, that it's really not algo trading if the algorithm doesn't do everything. I could see arguments either way. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Ok-Significance-1399

I like to be open minded, so I can partially agree with you. However, we have to compare, motorola was the first mover for handheld phones. IBM made the first smart phone. They are still alive but behind the competition for providing phones nowadays. If Bitcoin came first, and that is literally it. Then I cannot convince myself that it won't turn out to be like motorala or IBM, aka outdated. I don't think Bitcoin will be outdated, I think there is more to bitcoin than being the first of it's technology. Yes, it has the benefit of the network effect, but a new born in the 2026, will eventually grow up make money and buy bitcoin in the future, that has more to do with the first mover tech, or network effect. Bitcoin will last longer than motorola or IBM IMO, so I had to justify it in a philosophical way, which tech guru's and economists hate, a monetary behavioral phenomenon.

LoveSexDraems

You don’t stat trading with crypto IMO. Good luck!

HesitantInvestor0

It depends on the pathway and the reason. If Bitcoin shot up to 250k this year in a wild run where the macro was tepid, I'd likely sell half my stack. If it took a more gradual path, or if the macro picture changed substantially, I'd probably hold. I don't think it's smart to have only a number in mind. The number doesn't give you enough information IMO.

AkimboPiccolo

Just more fuel for the fire IMO, hope they get eviscerated obviously.

ConfidenceNo6318

Ease of use, air gapped, connects just by holding to back of phone, comes with a back up..extremely safe IMO

FrankSlipHelp

>\\\*\\\*Consider what we know:\\\*\\\* Ok I’ll expect credible sources then. >1. How it’s used to conduct cross-border payments Plenty of info direct from Ripple on this. >2. Ripple owns the majority of shares, primarily (IMO) so they can control the price Coins, not shares. XRP is not a share of stock of Ripple, Ripple did not issue XRP, XRP ownership does not transfer to Ripple ownership. How would owning a majority of coins control price? Look at the daily, weekly and monthly trading volume and explain what price control Ripple’s monthly escrow or other OTC sales could possibly happen. The math doesn’t math. Ask your favorite AI agent to do the math for you. >3. The goal is worldwide adoption/to replace SWIFT Credible source on this? Ripple has stated that they expect to take some marketshare from Swift due to the nature of the technology and banks wanting to have faster cheaper payments without holding nostro vostro accounts, but nowhere have I ever read that the software RipplePayment’s was intended to replace swift. Swift is a secure messaging platform, Swift does not move value, RipplePayments moves value, it is also a secure messaging platform. >How will smaller and mid-size banks adopt the technology if they can’t afford to buy the large amount of xrp needed in their reserve to conduct transactions? They don’t need to hold XRP in reserve, RipplePayment’s is a software suite and when ODL (on demand liquidity) is used no nostro / vostro accounts are needed. >XRP is intended to represent an amount, the amount of money being sent, as I understand it. It would be stupid if it was worth $50 where the dollar is worth $1, right? No. This post is from David Schwartz. >It can’t be dirt cheap. That doesn’t make any sense. If XRP costs $1, they’d need a million XRP which would cost $1 million. If XRP cost a million dollars, they’d need one XRP which would, again, cost $1 million. >Except that higher prices make payments cheaper. Right now, you can buy a million dollar house with bitcoins. When bitcoins where $300, it would move the market too much and be too expensive to be practical. So higher prices make payments cheaper. ~ David Schwartz recently retired CTO of Ripple and co-creator of the XRPL and XRP ~ https://x.com/joelkatz/status/932748963526066178?s=61 Slippage is real, and why moving the market makes payments more expensive, in order to not do that a higher value coin helps with keeping payments cheaper. >Does ripple control the price because THEY HAVE TO in order to KEEP IT LOW to operate as intended? Ripple does not control the price. Let’s use critical thinking here. If this was the case, wouldn’t that have been discovered during the 5 years that the SEC had full access to every financial document Ripple had? Wouldn’t that have been a ‘gotcha’ for the SEC? No, and they know what you don’t, Ripple does not control the price, has no means to control the price, and there is no evidence they have controlled the price. >Is xrp essentially a “hybrid” version of a stable coin (I know it’s not one technically). But it just seems like it has to remain stable or it can’t function as it’s intended. Your logic used here is false, it may ‘seem’ this way to you, but I don’t know where you derive your assumptions from, but from what I have read from you i’d say you need to get info from the source and not 3rd party. XRP is a country neutral crypto currency that has no central authority, stable coins are issued by companies and under regulation by the jurisdictions they are used in. >CAN SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME IM AN IDIOT AND EXPLAIN WHAT IM MISSING? Not an idiot, but you don’t know what you don’t know. Same for everyone until due diligence is done and even then there is always more to discover about what you don’t know and learn.

Fro3en_Cornchip

OP I think you have missed the boat to take profits when it bounced to 97. I think we can expect more rallies now after a few red months but probably lower highs. Forget your profits this year and just hold and stack more. Right now your DCA amount should be at max chickens IMO and be prepared for some aggressive buying if we hit the 50s and 40s. I’m not sure why people think a multi year bear market. The cycle is still playing out so no reason to think it’s any different. Meh at the end of the day all our opinions don’t mean shit anyway.

-Xaron-

You're right that the exit is where the money is made, NOT the entry. $250k is quite a stretch goal IMO.

FocusFlukeGyro

IMO, investing more than you can afford to lose would be unwise because of the volatility. Then as well as now. That being said, investing a reasonable amount of money, into an investment you believe in, is generally fine.

nightwind_999

I get that, IMO the fees youre paying rn for loading up stables is pretty fair, unless you're doing some bulk institutional order, i think it's hard to go beyond 1%.

Dubb18

There are some investors who won't put money (directly) into the sector because of the lack of regulatory clarity. There's some legal restrictions. Someone who covers TradFi awhile ago explained it while talking about ETFs. Regulatory clarity allows for things to open up to a degree. IMO, that doesn't mean BTC to $1M like some of the bulls have been saying, but a rally to some degree.

Dubb18

There are some investors who won't put money (directly) into the sector because of the lack of regulatory clarity. Someone who covers TradFi awhile ago explained it while talking about ETFs. Regulatory clarity allows for things to open up to a degree. IMO, that doesn't mean BTC to $1M like some of the bulls have been saying, but a rally to some degree.

JashBeep

If you've been following along this long, how is it possible to still think you've missed out? Doesn't that necessarily mean you think it is close to the highest value it will ever have? Wasn't that exact same thought true in 2014, 2017, 2021.... Do you really believe it won't continue to accrue in value from here? I mean, you have to think in terms of percentage changes, not dollar values. But that's pretty basic stuff. Have you 'missed out' on the nasdaq now that it's at 22k? Or do you think over the long term the nasdaq will grow in percentage terms? I mean, the way you described bitcoin gives me no confidence you think it is fundamentally a valuable thing, so it seems you're kinda capped at thinking about it in terms of a speculative play. So it's probably for the best that you haven't bought it anyway. IMO, bitcoin will still be here for you later on if/when you need it. So I guess that's ok.

busterbythelake

Sure, you can do whatever you want. If diversification is your goal, ideally you’d want some allocation to Bitcoin. Depends on whether or not you can stomach volatility. I recommended starting with 5-10% and see how that goes. IMO, the greater risk is not being exposed to an asset that has outperformed most equities. My advice is to do a little bit of studying on why Bitcoin will disrupt the system and go from a risk asset to a flight to safety. This will take a long time but that’s the opportunity. You get to be extremely early. Here are two books I’ve read and it changed my whole perspective on what money is and how the system is rigged against us. 1) The Bitcoin Standard 2) The Big Print

automatic_taco

BTC value behaves like an aggregate of most global markets, IMO, after watching it for 12 years.

thebestname1234

Holy shit- Reddit is toxic. Why would anyone buy Bitcoin when no one is willing to offer a little bit of advice, at least to steer them in the right direction… Here’s at least a little to get you started. IMO what most people don’t understand about Bitcoin in this sub and outside of it needs to be your starting point for everything- the goal of Bitcoin is to become a universal way to protect your purchasing power as governments debase the currency. The people who own Bitcoin are placing their bet that this will become true over time. We know governments will spend, the question is can anything protect our purchasing power? The world is already beginning to agree that we need to get back to a method for this again and a lot of people are saying gold will regain this title. The thing is- gold already has failed this test and hence why we have the dollar system in the first place. The failure of gold literally led to the dollar system taking over. The more you dive into why gold doesn’t work, the more you learn why Bitcoin is the only thing that can work. Will it, well- we think so and by the time people are sure- it will be unaffordable to ever own a whole coin. Most people then start to argue that gold has industrial use cases, which also means that they don’t truly understand the underlying thesis. Gold didn’t double in value due to industrial use suddenly,it is more because of governments overspending. Of course much of the price increase this year is also just speculation on price with no true reason. But that leads us back to the point that gold cannot be the future for the same reasons it failed in the past. So the question is, at what point do people realize this? When kids can’t ever own a house? When people try to redeem gold and get turned away? When a new Bitcoin payment system makes it easy to pay at every store? When selling stops being taxed? Again- the time is unknown but we don’t see any other way to beat the debasement. Beyond that- there are many amazing things about Bitcoin and some things that are not so amazing that get presented on news stations. Remember Bitcoin is not bad, people can be. In time it will evolve, so should you own some today? That’s for you to decide in time.

Affectionate_Lack709

For what it’s worth, I was really pointing to the “who” that will profit from this war, not the general fact that people profit from war. That’s a talents old as time. Based on your question and our current back and forth, are you arguing in favor of democratizing the ability to profit from war? If the rich do it, we should too? If we’re talking about a question of morality, thinking like that leads to a society that is more favorable towards utilizing violence instead of diplomacy to resolve conflict. Thinking like that is IMO immoral and makes the world a more dangerous/less stable place. I bought some crypto during 2021 and like the rest of the cryptos out there, it turned out to be a scam. Luckily it was only a couple of hundred of dollars and not my life savings. The crypto world is clearly filled with people who are lacking in morality (or create their own moral codes to justify their actions/belief systems). It’s interesting to me that you turns to this subreddit to ask about morality because I bet the nature of the responses here are pretty different than the responses that you’d find on other subreddits.

bytewitco

"Monitoring the situation" LOL. Actually, the sunday nights' signals will give some directions IMO.

-Xaron-

IMO fundamentals don't play a role in crypto as there is simply no underlying fundamentals, no value, nothing.

Background-Call2711

Too bad Citi sucks. (IMO)

OpticallyMosache

IMO - You're a fool if you're waiting for the 200WMA and below. If you think you'll time the bottom before you make you're first buyback, you're gonna miss it. Also, buying $67k on the way down (if it keeps moving down) is the same price you'll be buying on the way back up. But by buying it on the way down, you're increasing your chances of buying the low.

NilNow

I mean loading up on a centrally controlled coin with super concentrated ownership for your treasury is next level regarded IMO. Will the treasuries who bought XRP complain if Ripple which owns at least $40B worth decides to sell some?

niddess

I'm not looking for excuse, I really am trying to find a good robust option. Yeah KYC is more revealing, but name, last name is already way too much IMO. Meeting people is only possible in big cities or the offer just does not exist, sending money through mail is just too risky, bitcoin ATM without KYC is for very few countries. Only option left is WU/similar, I'll dive into this to see if there is something rotten with this method, or if it's the golden one

lxlmandudelxl

It's a decentralized and borderless peer-to-peer medium of exchange that can't be inflated or manipulated. That's the simple answer IMO

JerryLeeDog

Haha "ended" No, dont believe this. This not my first cycle. We could hit $50s before it over. We COULD have seen the bottom but not likely IMO

FlyinDanskMen

Don’t cash it out early and take tax hits to do that. Some 401k will let you invest in crypto holding companies, which is a better bet on protecting the tax status. IMO shouldn’t be more than 25% crypto, especially at your age. I’d lean closer to 15%. Which is still about 2 bitcoins. If it still goes to the moon you’ll ride it high. But the stock market is going crazy and probably will in the future too.

No_Knee3385

Rejecting worldcoin is about rejecting centralization IMO. What use case are you concerned about? EVen if you spin up 1 million accounts and buy enough tokens to overtake a DAO, you're still at a gigantic financial risk

According-Order-4035

20k 😂 be lucky to see it under 50 ever again. IMO

Langstudd

Why not just invest in a BTC fund through your 401k? If not currently available, it probably will be within a year. Not worth all the withdrawal fees IMO.

BlazingPalm

Hyperbitcoinization is happening before our eyes IMO. Probably one of the most common remarks here is “zoom out” for a reason: This asset class is still a baby! Also, forget about Alts, BTC IS the class. BTC has been around for ~16 years now, not counting it’s very early days. Market Cap is outrageous for something so new. Anybody ever hear the phrase, “power is not given, it is taken”? The power that govts and banks and fiat wield over the global population is immense and unyielding. There has not been an easy light switch moment because of the power and wealth struggle going on right now and it’s still heating up. So, month to month, crazy shit happens in finance, war, politics, policy. But year to year and eventually, decade to decade, the trend is clear. It doesn’t seem like a straight line up, but it kinda is.

TommyV8008

I am very much agree with you. There is at least one company that is working diligently at this and they have made amazing progress, IMO.

Logical_Lemming

Their official stance before was that staking their ETH could be seen to compromise their neutrality or give them undue influence in the event of a contentious hard fork. That's... still pretty true, IMO. But they way people complain about their selling.... it's hard to say what the right decision is.

Machine7272

Bitcoin has to be understood as a volatile asset and knowing you will never truly time the highs and lows for entering and exiting the asset. I learned from the last market and sold my BTC at 115K. Didn’t time it perfectly but my cost basis was 33K and was happy with the return. This time won’t be different IMO, good time to dollar cost average into it and sell at the next peak

nightwind_999

If you see gold for instance, it has a huge historical track record of being used for trading for who knows centuries? Anyway, for something which is this old and the times it has gone though, there gets attached an inherent trust - it's just human psychology. Fast forward to the modern era, we got equities and bonds and what not to trade, they have utilities, they can serve their purposes but that didn't diminish the value of gold (as i said the trust that this commodity has accumulated is immense and should be respected) so when the times are bad, folks turn to this one damn thing which has helped our great grand ancestors thrive in their times. The same is BTC: it's the oldest, has survived times and hence looks battle hardened, IMO it shall always be the gold standard of crypto industry. New equities might come and go, you may earn good fortune but eventually when the times are bad - nothing replaces BTC.

trimbandit

I sold at 120 knowing it might go to 145 and being ok with that. You can't be greedy and try to hit the exact top IMO.

ygzok

Maybe you're right. But not seeing those numbers short term IMO.

KPTA-IRON

Good man. IMO risk on will go to nano and small cap miners to complete the metals cycle. Why would people risk on useless alts when they can pick up junior explorers and developers at these metal prices

they_call_me_tripod

IMO is failed as a currency, and the comparisons to gold don’t hold up anymore either. Pretending this downturn is the same as the past is naive. Not saying it can’t go back up, but the arguments made in the past down hold up anymore.

evnsbn

Bottom is near. Already seeing 'crypto is dead" clickbaits on youtube. I keep eye on the supply in profit %, its getting there. Below 50% Im buying. Crypto market is rigged, now more than ever. I dont believe drug lords are the reason for the price going lower. Markets work in cycles. Big money avoids risk. Greedy leveraged investors get wrecked as stop losses are triggered, and big moves happen suddenly because of this, its a cascade effect. IMO, market must and will go much lower, capitulation is near, but we're not there yet. We still not seeing blood on the streets. Its only the beginning. Some say: all in below 50k. It could go to zero in a flash only to wreck leveraged money and flush the market, then shoot up again. Unfortunately, money is a magnet for crooks. So, we're playing along on a market that is run by them. As the game evolves, they evolve, so must we. Crypto isnt being hammered, its being recycled.

NilNow

This is an important point. When a tweet can move btc down 5%, it can also do the reverse. Can think of any number of things the orange man could tweet (even if completely untrue) that would send us up to $75k instantly. Not saying he will, but the despair here is absurd and IMO totally buyable.

FidgetyRat

IMO about as realistic as they made out having “AI” everywhere changing our lives.

Botlenose

Both are stores of value. I like gold bc it has been accepted for thousands of years. I like bitcoin because it’s portable. I like that Bitcoin is entirely its own financial system and I can send money anywhere anytime as long as I’m connected to the internet. So yea, I like them for different reasons. Gold is good, but really IMO Bitcoin does certain things better.. it’s the tangibility that bothers a lot of people that don’t understand it.

Sparky14715

Hurting children is a whole different level. IMO

Botlenose

I agree it doesn’t work as a currency in a world dominated by fiat. Why spend something that goes up long term relative to fiat currency? IMO it is a long term secure store of value. That’s my opinion and people can disagree all they want. It’s volatile but its scarcity will drive it up over the long haul. In 10 years it’ll crash from 1 million back to 500k and people will say it’s over all over again.

ScholarPrize1335

BTC is no longer driven by individual speculation. It's driven by big money and big institutions and how do they justify holding a speculative asset with bond like yields for the last 5 years? No fund manager can eat the opportunity cost of having investments that don't perform for that long. Also IMO anyone with a investment license not at a hedge fund is violating their ethical duty to follow modern portfolio theory. BTC is nowhere near the efficient frontier. Especially when the non-fait competition has been golden.

AkimboPiccolo

Meaningless for price but pretty important overall IMO. If it actually follows a power law it really strengthens its position as fundamental infrastructure. I have no idea if it actually follows power law though, I think the floor should be like $68k at the end of the year so we might have our answer then if its chilling below that. Either way power law is interesting.

ComplexWrangler1346

In 40 years maybe….i have money in bitcoin don’t get me wrong , but my biggest bags are in alts …unless you are a whale , Bitcoin will never give the normal Joe life changing money IMO..i am not in crypto to make a quick buck , I am in it to make life changing money if I can ….bitcoin won’t do that for me

SteveW928

Sure, there will always be both, at least until one day if Bitcoin either fails, or eventually succeeds and settles down into being primarily just a solid currency everyone uses. At that point, most of the speculator/investor class won't care, and move on to other things. But, there is a mathematical sense in which if it doesn't die, it can't help but go up against an ever expanding fiat supply. While economics is a social-science endeavour (hence the people-behaviour and trust aspects), I don't think it will be possible to suppress that overall movement through the volatility. I can't blame everyone currently. Even a Bitcoin maxi, if they have several hundred or thousand BTC is likely to start spending some of that at points. If they've been waiting to try and catch a peak (and who wouldn't?), we'll always see some sell-off at perceived high points. I don't think it necessarily indicates a shaken trust. Then there is the underlying macroeconomics. The world has been quite a crazy place in the last months, and at the center of it, Powell and Trump have been locked in battle over starting up the printer. USD liquidity is tight. Bitcoin is largely not understood. People are probably going to sell it out of their portfolio first, if things aren't great or are tight. So, I wouldn't agree it relies on trust and nothing else. It is a near-perfect monetary instrument that is worth a lot. Don't believe the 'no intrinsic value' people. The best money won't, and even gold isn't worth that much in terms of 'intrinsic value' if you strip away the monetary aspect. At the core, nothing really has intrinsic value... it's all determined by people and markets. The real breakthrough, IMO, is when start seeing that ability for Bitcoin to change the world, or watching people flee countries WITH some of their wealth, or surviving bank freezes/seizures, or funding a protest the gov't is trying to stop. Or, when you recognize all the prosperity and productivity gain the fiat system has stolen, or all the damage 'endless' fiat money produces in the hands of the gov't. This is when you flip from an investor, to a true Bitcoiner. It becomes like fire, the wheel, the printing press, or the Internet. Once you see that, you can't un-see. 'Laser eyes till fiat dies.'

ConBroMitch2247

IMO just open a Fidelity crypto account. The ETF fees are insane for bitcoin.

Worried-Low4580

IMO tether is a huge weak point in the crypto market. For being the largest stable coin (materially) and not having full audits or reserve disclosures… that could come back to bite us catastrophically

shleebs

The new easy version of BISQ isnt that complicated IMO If you really care about P2P i would spend a little more time reading the docs and figure it out

Seattleman1955

It's largely now just a self-fulfilling thing. People think there will be a "crypto winter" and therefore they sell and the price goes down. The supposed reasons for the cycle change every time. The more important question, IMO, for you to consider is why are you buying BTC? At this point, IMO, it's fairly mature and will perform about like gold performs. No one is obsessive regarding gold so why do you want to buy Bitcoin?

Laakhesis

IMO, get to at least 1 BTC, especially when you're young. Then move to traditional investments like broad market index funds.

PuzzleheadedFly1381

IMO, mega and eclipse kinda a huge flop and extraction. Beta may have legs? Monad is early, tech and is very exciting. This post is gonna rage bait some people, lol.

Mean-Interaction5017

XNO is the future of money! I swear once you DYOR and start using Nano you don't ever want to have to use one of the other cryptos again....XNO is Instant and feeless - the way all digital payments should be IMO💯

pass341

I mean, I would take any bullish outlook from a website called “time to buy bitcoin .com” with a grain of salt 😅 IMO, and I’m no analytical expert, but it seems like they’re conflating models used for stock analysis with this. Bitcoin is a purely speculative asset, there’s no price it “ought” to be. Its price is purely sentimental.

blvrg

Not ofc, that scenario would be highly harmful and it’s really not the case. We are good. BTFD IMO

blvrg

Not ofc, that scenario would be highly harmful and it’s really not the case. We are good. BTFD IMO

Life-Republic2311

IMO they’re a bit scammy.. If you’re newer to crypto, I’d give CB a try, real easy to use, and their wallet isn’t bad either

JustStopppingBye

IMO, it’s a step backwards. Layerzero and Pyth are vastly inferior to chainlinks network. Pyth doesn’t even provide the full data feeds that the US government is putting on chain, chainlink does. They’re seriously handicapping themselves from future growth by doing this. Chainlink has no real competitors, it’s past the point of no return for companies like Pyth and LZ. The only thing their competitors can offer at this point is a cheaper integration, which is what we’re seeing here. They don’t offer any competitive advantages.

Life-Republic2311

Don’t worry fam they’ll come around! People are always scared of new tech.. and even more so of new money. Besides, in today’s economy, most folks don’t have a ton of extra money to invest, and many who do are looking to ride the AI boom. IMO BTC is inevitable… you know what to do 💎

HesitantInvestor0

I don't mean to criticize you unfairly, but it seems like you don't know what you're talking about. If you think politics is all blunt force, you're mistaken. If Scott had pushed it through, it wouldn't have survived. They need support from moderate democrats and the banking lobby, 60 votes in total to avoid a filibuster. The choice was essentially to pull the bill and try to find a middle ground, or let it die. The choice was smart IMO. You can't push a bill that has no support from most sides. If the crypto industry doesn't like it, and the banks don't like it, and the lobbyists don't like it, and the democrats don't like it... The reasonable thing to do is to compromise. Most likely the stablecoin yields will be capped, maybe 2-3% or something. That's my guess. Anyway, I think you could use some more understanding of how politics work. Your idea that republicans can just do whatever they want is ridiculous. Of course technically they CAN just push and push, but if it kills their bills what's the point?

bobbyv137

I wrote that in December. As per the post, I suggested if a new ATH was made in 2026 then the cycle would be invalid. But, as you know, it's dumped massively since. So now the odds of a new ATH this year have significantly diminished, IMO, meaning that the 4 year cycle will simply repeat yet again (this year a bear market, next year recovery).

iwakan

I'm not saying that it's necessarily true that it's dead, but there are quite a few differences this bear market compared to last: - The rally was way smaller. Only 2x from the previous ATH, a price that we have now gone back down to, 5 years later. The weakness of this cycle will make a lot of people disillusioned about future performance. - We had no trigger to the bear market. No black swans, the most crypto-friendly US government imaginable, stock and metal markets reaching ATHs, and yet crypto is in the shitter. - The crypto market feels more centralized and fragile than ever. Just Microstrategy alone going bankrupt would IMO bring BTC to a four digit price. Bitmine going bankrupt would bring ETH to triple digits or worse. Any black swan at all on top of the already bearish market feels like it could be devastating.

99999999999999999989

I put it to you sir, that the idea of paying taxes on imaginary gains (no matter the percentage being used) is wrong. IMO it is used as a weapon against the middle class in order to strip any wealth they may be accruing due to their investment choices.

AdventureF

If you do try to self custody, go to the Ledger wallet Reddit sub and look at the potential mistakes you can make. Also, hire someone at Ledger to give you and hour of time to learn self custody. IMO, just do ETFs on the stock market. Because crypto is completely tied to the market, and you know you’ll get your cash out.

Subject-Chest-8343

I don't get your thinking. Let's say you are right and it really might go to like 48k. If you bought in at 60k, you'd have risked a 20% drawdown. On the other hand, just returning to 125k would give you a 108% return. Basically, buying bitcoin now very well may be like buying the nasdaq late 2022, which was a great entry point. Basically, yes nasdaq may seem less risky overall, but not right now. I'd say it is very ''optimistically priced''. One thing to consider is if the AI bubble explodes, sadly I think bitcoin will be collateral damage. IMO that's the only scenario where bitcoin really goes to 30-40k. But if that doesn't happen, I'm 95% sure bitcoin outperforms the nasdaq over the next 2-3 years, simply because bitcoin is already in the basement, while the nasdaq is in the stratosphere.

HesitantInvestor0

It's not a tech problem, it's a problem of classification IMO. The biggest win governments got with Bitcoin is in classifying it as a commodity rather than a currency. Personally, it's hard to justify spending Bitcoin, even if the tech side makes it easier to record and group taxable events with purchases.

IDKwhyimsleeptalking

I think a great place to start a position! IMO

Corbiusk_

Drop Render and Celestia. And yes if your only goal is to invest and compound over time (make sure your certain of that aspect) then go all BTC. IMO

uncapchad

yep that's SOP from what I have read here over the years. Punitive fee. It's all theft IMO but that's they how they all roll

Jagger49

IMO this is a big moment for Bitcoin, if you believe in the asset class you buy more. Again IMO I think the past 2 years it’s become more of a speculative security then a investment against inflation by being on an exchange it’s loses its unique properties

Skepsis93

I'm seeing the stock has 68% institutional ownership. Which is about average IMO. NVDA has 67% institutional ownership and SPY etf has 53% for reference. Some stocks in my portfolio have as much as 85-90% institutional ownership. Obviously 68% is enough to cause big moves, but compared to the rest of the market, retail appears to have a healthy level of participation in COIN.

Yukon_Wally

Buy and hold BTC. Alt coins are dead IMO. 

AInception

No, very likely you're thinking of Nanci Pelosi whose husband is a hedge fund manager. She constantly outpreforms the S&P and her name is synonymous with insider trading. But IMO it's the result of propaganda that her name alone is associated with insider trading. A dozen other congresspeople outpreform her by 2X each year without hedge fund insights. Kind of wild to see that reaches people not in the US. Anyway, Warren was the chairwoman who implemented the bank/financial safety measures after the 2008 global financial crisis. She became a senator and spent her years nailing bank execs on their fraud. Then she took a HARD stance against cryptocurrency and its deregulated nature, and quickly started working *with* big banks to work their same KYC/AML/yield etc. regulations into crypto -- while forcing banks to not work with crypto companies who wouldn't or honestly couldn't. She's frequently involved in targeting small indie crypto teams rather than going after the larger one's doing the same thing and actually harming people; a team of 3 teens with a hobby project over Do Kwon (Luna) raking in billions. So she can cheaply/easily (unfairly) set the legal precedent that would affect the entire industry, knowing the indie teams can't afford lawyers and must cede/settle on far overreaching terms that would otherwise be argued out of court. Lots of people involved with crypto really hate them both. :P But for different reasons. ^*The more you know.*

AutoModerator

Post is by: Express-Potential485 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1r3enc7/the_cycle_within_the_cycle_a_quick_breakdown/ A lot of people may not know of the money flow cycle within the crypto cycle. Veterans know the basics but perhaps not quite as detailed as i’m going to present to you briefly. the basics: money flow into first - btc ➡️large caps ➡️ mid caps ➡️ small caps ➡️ privacy coins ➡️ market bleeds…… ➡️ memes ➡️ more bleeding ➡️ bitcoin and repeat memes are up next… now this cycle not only works for the macro entire cycle… but it also works on smaller time frames down to the minutes. you can see it in action if you know what to look for and quickly switch from one sector to the next as the last focus starts to drop. try it out. i also have a theory that since this happens on smaller time frames, and the cycle as a whole…. perhaps it works over multiple cycles and each cycle has a focus. this was the bitcoin focused cycle. infrastructure was laid, blah blah. the next full bull market in my theory, will be a large cap focused cycle. mainly ethereum and solana and a few others… within these “focused” cycles every thing else still applies, its just that we are running that very same cycle listed above on like a 40 year cycle instead of 4. not necessarily 40, but im sure you understand. so next cycle will establish the big players like eth and solana and a few others surely will arise to the top, cementing their place in the new financial infrastructure. chainlink likely will play a massive role in the next run IMO. so with this theory, that means that if the current run is over… the next run will be large cap focused, then 8 years from now will be the Alt season focus cycle. 12 years from now, small cap focused. every tom dick and harry will have a project and they all will moon. at this point crypto is engrained in our society. 16 years from now…. some sort of event will happen, geopolitics and police state dystopia becomes more and more of a threat. quantum computers are powerful… this is the privacy coin cycle focus shining through. it’s at this point that Zcash replaces bitcoin fully and completely 😎 not even joking about that last part. might even happen sooner… as in next cycle. but more likely will come in that cycle in 16 years from now. it just makes sense. 20 years from now, everyone and their momma uses crypto, all sorts of stuff is popping up… meme season cycle will be upon us. anyway, thoughts? if you take a step back overall it makes sense. also… zcash is 100% replacing bitcoin. i see the future… the method is technical analysis. you can learn how to as well. ask away if you have questions or need explaining. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

bbqyak

In general that's all you can do. Nobody can ever time the bottom perfectly. That being said, we still have a long way to go IMO I wouldn't be throwing my wallet at this "dip" just yet.

DryTechnology5224

I believe it will squeeze, but from lower levels. We haven't seen the bottom yet IMO

easauer

Will it stabilize in the near future? No. But it will stabilize eventually. Will it ever replace fiat currency? No. Not at least for hundreds of years IMO. But, its not going away. Anything new takes time. Think about adoption of computers and the internet. Was not overnight and a massive change to the global currency will take even longer. But, the fact that governments across the world are working on governing legislation to support it and banks are looking at how they can introduce crypto infrastructure to their business means it is taking hold as a permanent and viable currency. We are nowhere near mass participation so investing is still very lucrative in the right coins. Most of us aren't market players. Do research. Invest in what has been around long term and let it sit long term.

azdcaz

It’s a shitty headline. While Coinbase is blocking the bill, they’re blocking it because the big banks got their hands into this bill and are trying to weaken the crypto industry by banning yield. Coinbase is doing the right thing IMO.

JKimRX

For me, I really do think this is a chance to jump in early (yes, we’re still early) on a generational shift in how stores of value are exchanged Not so long ago, people used cash to pay for everything. Then came paper checks. It was unheard of, that someone could write a value amount on a piece of paper, sign it, and that paper was now worth said amount. Then credit cards and online banking. Again, crazy to think that a piece of plastic (with a chip) can access your funds. Next was peer to peer, like Venmo, CashApp, Zelle using mobile apps and mobile banking. Finance is always evolving and IMO, All of this is leading towards decentralized digital currency, with BTC as the backbone. I believe BTC hasn’t exploded yet because it’s not yet accessible for mass public, but it will be.

stefansilva_xrp

The issue is more to do with the bull market returns than the bear market. IMO.

KateR_H0l1day

I bought my first BTC at ~$44K, but it wasn’t my first crypto, I started mining HNT, which is what got me into crypto. Because I needed a wallet for my HNT, and eventually a way to sell, after research I selected CDC, and because of that, my second crypto I was buying, was CRO. Now my HNT Is in the toilet, but it’s mostly free due to mining (management just sucks), but I am well into the green with my CRO, even at these low prices! I’d high hopes for DOT & KSM, Yowzer, how wrong can you be, but I started buying SOL after the FTX crash, my average pice is ~$28.50, so obviously green there. I added to my BTC, am still green there and added more today, patience and a long term outlook is key in this game we’re all playing. The obvious 🙄 thing is; that it’s critical at what price you buy and average too, and the more blood in the streets, the more likely you are to end up with good profits. Just IMO of course 🤷‍♀️

ClassicusHD

First time? IMO don’t try and look at numbers to make sense of everything. I’m not saying you’re wrong(you’re right it sucks now), just speculating never brought me much joy personally. DCA, don’t invest anything you can’t afford to leave alone for 5+ years, and go enjoy life 🫂 But hey, if you like math, you-do-you.

whataboutbenson

Maybe it shouldn't do it, maybe it doesn't make any sense, but you only have to watch the price action to see that the four year cycle is still playing out pretty much perfectly. IMO it's the greatest evidence against the "efficient market hypothesis." In theory, yes, if it was that predictable, everybody would buy and sell at the same time and therefore destroy the cycle. But after you spend enough time in the community you see just how clueless retail largely are. Everybody consistently overthinks it, people place far too much importance on the news, especially US domestic news, people start getting into alts which are far less predictable, all kinds of narratives and stories become rampant, and people get either greedy or begin to despair and make irrational moves.

WIRED_REFLEX

Saying you're here in "good faith" and addressing folks as "Jesus Freaks" features some great dichotomy. Nobody forces you to believe in either, you are free to do as you will. Buy Bitcoin or not. Worship God or not. Chastising either group for their belief, regardless of how that belief was formed would be strange and presumptuous/judgmental IMO. I think the similarity you can identify here is that both demand submission as a prerequisite.

JumpedUpPantryBoyy

This is the smart thing to do IMO. In a S&P500, Total Market or All-World ETF, something like that.