IMO

Capable-Ninja-7392

4-year cycle is a legacy from when mining rewards made up a substantial amount of activity. Now, daily volume dwarfs mining rewards. Therefore, other factors are driving price, which IMO will continue trending up over the next decade and perhaps onward.

Key-Understanding163

IMO, metals moved up on the news that the fed is buying 40B of treasury bills each month starting on 12/12. While he spoke hawkish, they acted dovish and precious metals like gold sniff out inflation.

Rare_Rich6713

I get why it feels like nothing has changed a lot of the big promises from the early days instant private payments for everyone, fully decentralized everything, zero fee transfers obviously didn’t play out the way people imagined. But under the surface, crypto actually has advanced a lot. The biggest improvement IMO has been infrastructure, especially around payments. Ten years ago, sending crypto meant juggling weird wallets, networks clogging for hours, fees spiking randomly, and merchants having absolutely no idea how to accept anything. Now we’ve got stablecoins, reliable L2s, and actual payment rails that don’t feel like a science project. Stuff like Xmoney and a few other gateways pretty much abstract the janky stuff away businesses can accept USDT/USDC globally with consistent fees and get settlement in minutes. For real-world usage, that’s a huge leap compared to the 2015 era.

mollested_skittles

Its not useless tokenising the stock market on layer 2 on ETH would be nice IMO.

Kie_ra

If anyone's asking you anything regarding BTC, too many people know you own some. IMO any number above 1 is too many people knowing 

slash_networkboy

Mine too :) But I think that the BTC value was pretty good IMO. The day a Sat becomes a dollar... well by then a dollar will be relatively worthless. Look at the Yen as an example for what I think of a dollar that's one Sat.

Seattleman1955

I think it would be helpful if people learned to think things though themselves. In terms of probability, BTC is likely end this year (2025) a little over $100k. It can get to $150k (whenever) just by momentum and nothing else. To get to $250k, you need structural change. We have the setup for that already so when hedge funds and advisors start allocating a little to BTC that's when we'll get that. I'd say 2026 will see $170k. The trend will continue into 2027 with maybe $230k. If we have a recession, it just knocks the predictions back a year. By 2030 we are looking at $300k to $500k. At that point, BTC is mature. That's a 5x move from here in terms of real purchasing power so if you can buy BTC for $100k and it will have $500k in purchasing power by 2030. That's a good deal. The numbers after that mature value are just inflation for if you go out long enough you can post any number and it is possible but it's just inflation and increased purchasing power. This is all you really need to understand about Bitcoin, IMO. It's how I look at it and therefore the daily wild predictions and scenarios, I just ignore. It's just noise and clickbait.

thupkt

Do yourself a favor and stick to the Bitstamp chart of BTC when you're on TradingView, IMO it's easily the best of the BTC charts you can draw up there.

shelby_xx88xx

Been to Dubai Not my cup of tea. Good for a holiday. Actually planning on going back to USA soon. Had my fun in Europe. Also better to just visit IMO.

SaltySn0w

Hard to tell at the moment - indicators are rather bullish IMO. But of course, indicators are only based on the past. 😉 Keep calm

Informal-Ad220

Not the worst crime discovered going on in our schools nowadays. Absolutely benign by comparison, IMO.

konote

RSI reset then dump or continue upwards? IMO I think continue upwards. Selling strength is going away

lebastss

It depends but I'm going to say no to your question, it is fool proof if you are using a high precision scale and you measure it right. The exception is if you buy a large enough gold bar (too big for the scale) or a raw nugget. If you are buying a minted coin it will have precise measurements. Nothing has the same density as gold. It's impossible to replicate exactly. You have to weigh to hundredths of a gram. Anyone buying anything other than minted coins uses an xrf scanner or they should.y largest purchase at once is around 130k in gold, all in one ounce minted coins. Every one was weighed and measured. No issue at all. IMO it's much easier to scam someone out of crypto and Bitcoin with social engineering than fake gold and scam me that way. Scamming in gold also requires you to do it in person. Which is another layer of intrinsic security. Much harder to get away with it.

DistributionOk2111

IMO Gold is the closest thing to btc

anon-187101

Bitkey is a *terrible* recommendation, IMO.

Wonderful_Fun543

Cart Vs. Horse IMO, OP ❤️ I asked for all things, that I might enjoy life; I was given life, that I might enjoy all things.

Kitchen-Gold-7643

Unless this is required by law, I don’t know these things, I disagree with your statement. She asked that because $50k is a lot to her and she was shocked and assumed something is up. $50k may be nothing to this person and to assume it is also a lot to him is no bueno IMO. It’s his money. He asked for it. Give it to him. Simple as that.

TheopholusJones

OP is trying to have an open conversation to better understand the viability of a new coin in the L2 space. IMO, your initial "knee-jerk" reaction insinuates that you either have deep rooted resentment or pain from a missed opportunity in the past, Bitcoin? Or that you are in the wrong community and if so, I kindly ask you leave and allow those with relevant questions to ask them freely - quite literally one of the main purposes of Reddit.

DRAGULA85

IMO. Lump it in. This is a glorious dip. Maybe it will hit $79k again one day But imagine the feeling is much worse if you are waiting for the perfect dip and then it it stays above $100k for eternity I would have loved to lump at this price but I got the fomo at $95k

iamjide91

It’s a wild time in crypto, no doubt. BTC and ETH have taken hits (I call them discounts), altcoins are underperforming, and volatility is through the roof (I call that even bigger discounts). While whales and institutions are accumulating (eg, TOM LEE's BITMINE), the real opportunity might be in projects with actual utility. I've always been a fan of that, keeping a close watch on AIOZ, PEAQ and FIL. While everyone is fixated on charts and hype, these projects might be setting up for long-term growth IMO NFA. For those looking beyond short-term swings, keeping an eye on real-world utility projects could pay off big.

LightRider51

Its a platform that can't be accessed by corruptable humans. As long as that holds true, it should have value IMO

ChaoticDad21

I think many markets have just about peaked out. If Bitty were older and more established, it could be the safe haven I hope it becomes one day. But it's not there right now. Long term bond yields are about to surge again, which will mean bad news for speculative assets. IMO

Beaesse

Dude aged well over 10 years, IMO.

unhappy-customer12

I'm actually funneling equity from stocks into BITI. It's not leveraged, but it does go up when bitcoin goes down. I believe we're entering the bear market so I'm planning to hold these for the next 9-12 months before I start funneling the profits into bitcoin again. Selling stocks for Bitcoin is not too foolish as long as you don't need to use the money until 2028-2030. You can average in during the bear market and make a lot. You'll just be down for a couple of years IMO.

Oddsee

Not to mention when people compare things like the price of a Big Mac today compared to 50 years ago, it's not an apt comparison because things have been streamlined, automated, shrunken, etc. so it should be way cheaper. IMO we should be calculating and comparing it to how much a Big Mac would cost today if we reverted all processes, ingredients, etc. to how they were in the past.

TP_Crisis_2020

IMO, I think it will reach around 150k as the ATH for the next cycle, and then beyond that I have no clue.

Fun_Initial_7012

I think the 50 week SMA of approx 102k is the number to watch for. Historically this has proven as a barometer for the end of cycles when it gets crossed under in weekly closes. IMO if we push past 102 we could see a rally upwards. If we get rejected it could move forcefully other way

50sat

My thoughts are this is overwhelmingly positive for the tech, and an advancement to the ideals. The amount of managed value that the larger financial institutions are funneling to blockchain-based products and derivatives is a solid endorsement for the 'real security' of blockchain tech and the follow-on boon of tokenization. Less immediately impactful but a real, backbone change to society is that someone who wants to shoulder the work and risk can just go and directly acquire the assets themselves in a way that you could never do with globally recognized stores of physical value or even shares in a digitized market, If it leads us to a hard currency like economy with digitally flexible stores of value it is, IMO, a quiet but giant step forwards. "See, you're thinking you've got me locked in here with you..."

bansoma

Under this scenario you are unlikely to get liquidated. You could be expected to further fund your margin account however. I'm assuming you borrow in $ against your 0.1 BTC. Under this case if the price of BTC drops \~75-85% you will be asked to cover your margin. (The bank doesn't let it drop 90%, they want to be paid BEFORE you loose it all). At this price you will loose 100% of your 1.0 BTC to cover the margin. I would consider a 85% drop unlikely, but you never know... You can also sell earlier and save your shirt, or fund the account with $. Either way you owe the full $ amount and margin accounts are setup with collateral held in trust that makes it a sure bet for the person providing liquidity. As the person taking leverage you actually WANT this setup. Because it means your interest rate will be super low, basically just a borrowing fee + CPI levels of interest. If the bank is guaranteed to make this money back so then they can charge very little... IMO, High volatility assets are enough to just own. You don't need leverage to boost your returns on them. Usually these types of accounts are only used after large nest eggs have been built. So value can be accessed from assets that appreciate faster than the debt service in a tax advantaged way. Even then, if you run the math on them they are BARELY better than just selling, paying cap. gains taxes, and then spending the cash instead.

No_Knee3385

He's right because of AI, and currency will go away, esp chains like Bitcoin. Smart contract chains will likely be the only ones that exist after AI removes currency. Although, this is in a few generations IMO. Unsure how decentralization will work in the post-AI world because it revolves around incentives

Romanizer

Yes, you would need to look up the quarterly 13F filings, which is a bit complicated IMO. However, I like this site here: https://13f.timechainindex.com/?ticker=ibit&period=2025Q3 It shows that for example BlackRock Inc. Increased their holdings in the IBIT ETF from roughly $500 million to $650 million during Q3 2025. Q3 figures are still processed but it looks like all Wall Street banks increased their exposure significantly. The caveat here is that 13Fs do not state if the institution is holding for themselves or for clients. However, BlackRock wouldn't need to buy their own product to sell it.

angelus97

Sparrow + ColdcardQ is a fantastic experience IMO.

ah-hum

$175-250 lowest. Never $150 again (IMO)

theuniverseisgodvfdm

It is a fact (at least according to all previous bull markets) that bitcoin falls at least 65% on average. From 126k (assuming that really was the top), 65% puts us at around 45k 🤷‍♂️ IMO you’re the one denying reality. It may not happen now, but it will happen.

No_Knee3385

No, money won't exist in a few generations IMO

VariatCA

To my knowledge, Powell said that the Fed's economic roadmap was considering at least 2 more cuts sometime in 2026 and the potential restart of QE, but no specific timeframes were given. Which IMO is kind of a relief, since the last 4 months it feels like the U.S. economy has been trying to completely price-in 3 consecutive cuts, and kept faltering any time there was even any *question* that it wouldn't happen. It would be nice for the markets to just go "alright we won't stress about it, maybe we'll get one by April and another by September or something".

Chris_Apex_NC

$70k is a high probability IMO. And about as low as I think it'll go. But who knows

NeoDynomite

Nothing is going up, if Bitcoin doesn’t go up. It’s the backbone of the whole market so your argument is valid. If Bitcoin climbs and it will, other tokens will outperform due to their smaller market cap. It simply takes less money to move them. IMO, we should all have a bit of bitcoin maxi because Bitcoin is the linchpin. If it fails, nobody will trust anything in crypto again. I wish more people understood this.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Decentralization-God and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pbhuqz/crypto_cycle_rationale/ I would find interesting to read well argumented opinions on “crypto cycle” as this whole thing is or always was IMO kind of “artificial”. In general I am crypto friendly person, and have some investments, but I also want to be strictly rational investor and not a narrative-driven. In past, there obviously were those cycles whose fundamental part (or cause?) was bitcoin halving event and its consequences. Also while there are no technical dependencies between Bitcoin and all those alt coins, there is actually super-strong dependency and everyone can see how precisely all altcoins copy bitcoin (with exception here or there). This is a clear evidence of still speculative component in price, and very little value. If trust in bitcoin shakes, whole industry shakes - a dominantly trust based “asset class” as the real use and value still needs to be developed. But what about that cycle, which seems to be broken now? IMO the cycle was kind of convention created by bitcoin community - and it was passed on newcomers. Since it is all mostly based on trust, this convention was kind of guide in terms of where we are - is it good to buy, enter or sell? It worked somehow. Also part of this cycle were those waves or sequence: 1. Cash BTC 2. Pump and dump ether 3. Pump and dump altcoin1-n All was like a scripted game which helped to navigate. But this “seasonality” does not exist on WallStreet and in Fin industry at all. The speculation there is omnipresent but most assets have underlying value - commodities are best example and events affecting underlying value is what drives price movements adjusted by speculation and trading approaches. So once these big institutional players went into bitcoin, many applauded as price went up. However “kids game/convention” was effectively broken as these guys do not follow some convention, cycle etc. They came with their very own rules! IMO they did not join this game just to pump and dump massively this asset and “destroy” further adoption potential. Their strategy is more long term and less about that massive volatility. They dont like huge crashes. IMO it is these guys who protected price from “cyclic crash” which they did not join, they bought the dips triggered by retailers etc. So the game changed. That is my opinion, but I keep hearing those who still think all is the same and they rule the game - they believe in classic cycle, which is not reality any more IMO. So folks, is my reasoning flawed or how do you see that? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Impossible_Nature849

IMO it's part of your stack. You're far more likely to lose Bitcoin you have the keys to than you are your IBIT shares.

Wonderful_Fun543

The worlds of cryptography and privacy are equally exciting and opposite. Advancing one without the other could result in some truly orwellian stuff IMO. Institutions, governments, and corporations all care about privacy/propriety. Criminals surely enjoy privacy too, but we the public should not surrender our right to privacy in response (opinion). Agree that most A.I. coins are garbage (tho I did toss a cpl into deepsnitchAI lol), oh well gotta YOLO sometimes... I'm old enough to remember #lulzboat/#antisec so part of me supports privacy protocols just to piss people off... Shout out to railgun users!

theMonkeyTrap

unrelated to bitcoin somebody publish a paper title 'Even GOD would get fired as a fund manager'. read it, goes into much more details. [https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Even\_God\_Would\_Get\_Fired\_as\_an\_Active\_Investor.pdf](https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Even_God_Would_Get_Fired_as_an_Active_Investor.pdf) My Half-backed theory is that HOLDers will hold bitcoins till the pain becomes unmanagable & that IMO would be somewhere between there 10-100x ex-crypto networth. you could almost make a MVRV model around that.

frozennorth0

If you are investing in bitcoin for profit, the “never sell” stance is just asinine IMO in terms of risk. Why would you never trim your position when sitting on massive LTCG when you know the investment is cyclical?

DaVirus

Gift cards. Gift card are still the way to spend fiat IMO.

Romanizer

Exactly, just thrown away IMO.

Longtezzies

IMO the wort that happens is you buy at suboptimal price - as long as you can be patient! But probs the wise money would scale into position..

No_Knee3385

POW is part of the model. There are pros and cons to all consensus mechanisms but bitcoin itself can never be made on ethereum. IMO pow is *slightly* more decentralized on the spectrum of decentralization, but this can really be argued either way

penty

IMO: You stop when the sum of all your future BTC purchases fail to significantly affect the date you reach your goals.

Decent_Procedure2981

That's pretty awesome. Interesting to learn you didn't think it would go to zero. I feel like back then a lot of people did. Even now some do, but unlikely IMO. So then yeah you just stuck it out and used the Tesla stock/stock to pay off things you need. I am at a point in life where if my 10K turned into 100k I'd want to sell for a down payment on a condo, pay off student loans, etc. I think you are implying (and it turned out to be true for you) that by waiting you can end up making even more. Ex. Buying a condo in cash after 15 years of waiting vs just the down payment (after 4 year of waiting). Inspiring! Perhaps I should HODL too.

PedroJTrump

Eureka is a word that doesn’t get used enough, IMO

linuxmeaningfully

IMO stack more bitcoin. You can setup a BTC wallet on an old phone (Cupcake, Bull Wallet, etc) or laptop (Sparrow) (ideally, not connected to the internet) and get comfortable to moving money that way. You can always move the seed phrase or sweep the sats to a new wallet later You’ll hit a point where you feel you need more security and get a wallet. I think similar to other commenters it should at least be 0.01 BTC / 1 million sats per UTXO. Look up videos from BTCSessions for learning to custody your coins. He goes over various hot and cold wallets

NewPudding6277

Cycles not over, ATH coming by end Jan IMO

simonmales

IMO you'll be fine. But if it helps sleep at night, go for it.

Better-Waltz-2026

Lol, if you're buying long term, you'll be just fine :) BTC has found support, IMO is going down in Q1 2026 ad always

reliable35

$TAO - IMO is potential the biggest game changer in crypto. Decentralised intelligence.. 128 competing sub-nets (AI projects).. with 1000s to come in future.. not all will be high quality.. but it only needs a few to succeed for this project to 10x even 100x in MC from here..

Impossible-Goal3492

Focus on the underlying technology, not the coin. Understand what blockchain tech actually is & how it will accelerate web3 and intersect with AI. As of now the biggest pillars holding up blcokchain are 1. Stablecoins/Payments 2. Real World Tokenization 3. AI DYOR on which companies are & will be disruptive in those 3 areas and that will tell you which companies will be profitable in the mid term. These are not mystical coins, these are tech start up companies that eventually will need to turn a profit to stay relebant. Based on my 5 years of research, I like Hedera the best (HBAR) as a long term hold. They give you exposure to all 3 pillars & IMO they have the best technology with arguably the smartest founder with the most impressive credentials (US Air Force/Dept of Defense) Many crypto projects will disappear just like the dot com boom when price movement is determined by actual revenue and not just hype. Focus on revenue and tream these 'coins' like real businesses - because that is what they are: web3 blockchain tech companies.

Odd-Farm270

4 year cycle is a bs explanation. You can see the choppy price action in the last few weeks. Really doubt that this bullish movement came out of nowhere to stay. Seems more like a fakeout to then continue dropping to $65-$72k IMO.

Bigdyll13

No. Would be dope, but no. Not impossible, people saying $100k are a bit optimistic IMO.

cliff_smiff

IMO the core hypothesis centers on scarcity, enforced by decentralization and game theory, as opposed to the inevitable inflation of fiat. Those who store value in Bitcoin will do better than those who use eg dollars. But, understanding the importance of this requires a wide view of history, as well as awareness that other countries do in fact exist with billions of real people in them. In my experience, westerners from cushy and prosperous countries dismiss these reasons, as they seem unable to imagine a global order where their states are not on top and they don't benefit from exploiting poorer nations. Likewise, they are unable to imagine living under oppressive governments. History shows us that things will change, eventually, it's just matter of when.

LooseSpot4597

I think he means $150k-$200k and that is the total value of 3 coins. IMO this is reasonable.

Sandharbor

What’s the point? I mean he’s right even the “legit” coins we are all basically trading coins with CEO’s at this point. There basically just unregistered stocks themselves, without needing to be audited, or file financial data, have the ability to dilute whenever they want. They can migrate tokens at will and come up with brand new tokenomics in the process.  I’m not leaving but the most profitable narrative in crypto is defi. But they act like banks and how can they really reward the token holders other than staking rewards or buying back and burning without being deemed an illegal security.  Our crypto friendly president who could’ve done something came in with his crypto friendly idea basically launching slow rugs. His coins look like any other rugged coin.  Google Ben.eth and his coin “Psyop” you could trade that chart and Trump coin chart, it looks exactly the same. Crypto stocks outperformed almost everything. IMO the safest play for crypto other than BTC is probably COIN stock and it did outperform from its market bottom, it plays every facet of the market; exchange, layer 2, crypto treasury, coin base ventures, profits off aerodrome dex, has real earnings, can’t dilute us to crap. 

ThatChrisGuy7

IMO MONADS money will flow into SOL once some of the early buyers capitulate

Purple-Wall3847

IMO, they are pointing out the history of a step decline, a climb, a leveling out, then onward and upward. Higher lows, higher highs. Without breaking out a real chart and my software, the back of the napkin art shows a possible low down to abt 80K (flame suite on lol) https://i.redd.it/9dv35nfgpg3g1.gif

50sat

Reading some of the comments and statements has caused me to look around at this and note that it's proper operation of a blockchain ecosystem. 1) Someone made a transaction that broke some rules that were already adjusted. 2) A bunch of lazy node operators got off on a fork due to an old ruleset. 3) Disagreement (fork) was resolved by moving the miners to the current ruleset for consensus. Enough miners ignoring development to cause the fork is an interesting statement about the health of the community but this is the skeleton of the process for many, if not most, extant block chains. This was good for the chain. In a tough-love, wakeup call sort of way. Whether it comprises an attack or not, laughable. I don't even pay attention to what hoskinson has to say any more because he's so contrarian he basically cockblocked an entire avenue of bitcoins evolution IMO.

DigitalHemlock

In fairness they are making money off your money in exchange for that 4% AND a banking system you use, web interface, app, ATMs, ACH payments, protections via FDIC and against theft, etc, not to mention in many cases physical locations and customer service. Not saying the amount they make vs what you get is "fair", and that crypto shouldn't change the industry, but they do provide a service that costs them money to provide so having a spread on what they make vs what they pay is at least categorically reasonable IMO.

Sandharbor

I like watching influencers for entertainment and sometimes ideas to start my own research. For every hundred coins recommended by them one might be worth it.  A lot of the recommends though are for crap with poor tokenimics, which IMO are gonna act like slow rugs while the holders get diluted on a continual basis.  As the market matures I hope to see some influencers focus more on the potential revenue streams and metrics of the coins. At the same time hope to see more protocols along with legislation figuring out a way to reward or share that revenue/profits with their holders. 

Emergency_Egg1281

What happened to the job report bump ? The market is being manipulated by the super rich. People say Trump , and i laugh cuz he ain't got that kind of cash. Im betting Bezos and 5 or 6 of his buddy's are bound and determined to not let the people make any money just to make a president they hate look bad. thats IMO.

harvested

I think the lines are already beginning to blur, but no, wouldn't a December rally to ATH be in line with the cycle? IMO a cycle break would be 2025 = flat or down, 2026 = up year or ATH.

ItsEtidorpha

It’s not a bad book, and does explain a lot about currencies since the beginning of time, monetary policy and the benefits of Bitcoin. However a lot of it is not actually about Bitcoin IMO. If you want something focused primarily on Bitcoin then I’d recommend Bitcoin One Million.

BainTrain55

IMO depends how stocks do tomorrow, we need a red day for stocks and green day for BTC to convince me still.

CyberCurrency

There are a lot of credit card companies that offer enrollment perks. Usually get $200 back after $500 in purchases. You can easily churn $1k/yr across brands. Cancellation call typically takes 5 minutes to complete. Worth the hassle, IMO

TheWaveCarver

Im not trying to be overly stubborn or discouraging, bear with me here as I think this is a worthwhile discussion. Bitcoin is seen as the future of finance but situations like this need to be handled with more elegance for it to succeed. Saying your finances will "expire" unless they are moved only supports the use of centralized custodians IMO. Maybe there is a better way. If there is literally not then maybe there is a better alternative to Bitcoin out there. And Im not shilling, I dont hold any altcoins currently.

TheWaveCarver

IMO 2 years is not nearly long enough deadline for what youre describing. These wallets could potentially be someone's life savings not a gift card

uncapchad

consumers pay in Bitcoin on the Lightning network, merchants have the option to either keep it or convert to currency or automatically convert up to 50% of their daily card sales into Bitcoin. All with zero fees until 2027. Their services include wallets and tax tracking. This is rolled out across USA and 8 other countries with more to come next year including online payments. This makes it easier for the many merchants out there who want to accept Bitcoin or already do accept it but face technical and other challenges. You see posts in this sub all the time across a variety of sizes of businesses, self-employed etc. IMO, Block wouldn't have done this if they felt the adoption level would be low. Also if they didn't feel that changes in regulations regarding taxes (in the US at least) weren't coming. According to their research, cryptocurrency payment users in the US are expected to grow by 82% by 2026.

FamousAirline9457

IMO bitcoin is at its correct price. The price drop was a well needed correction. It was way too high at 120k.

No_Knee3385

IMO, just DCA into this account over the next few decades or however long.

Calm-Comfortable3308

I think BTC is still extremely undervalued IMO

devCheckingIn

BTC.D going up means these prices aren't going to hold IMO.

Embarrassed_Boss_576

IMO, this picture is accurate: every dolt who thinks that BTC is dead (for like the 900th time), will sell and get proverbially poked in the rear. Let’s put it this way, Bitcoin thrived on numerous occasions when the entire world and powerful governments were against it. It would therefore be naïve to think that it is not slated for a comeback with all of the momentum behind it now — ranging from nation states to institutions. Common sense tells me there’s still lots of gas in the tank for this unique and valuable asset.

RossiCS_

we've seen it before, we usually have a pump on weekends and then a dump when market opens on monday. IMO we'll only see changes in price action if something changes in terms of macro - like a rate cut. As for now there is not a huge reason for the price to go up, and these little bounces are normal in such oversold levels

Beginning-Bird9591

This would be the final nail in the coffin for btc IMO.

Little-Sizzle

AWS already using PQC in several services for costumers, including cloudfront. So I imagine internally they already using it. Also they have an incredible R&D and I bet they are aware. And since they already providing services with PQC it’s easy for companies to migrate, thus more easy then to bitcoin to be quantum resistant. That’s why I don’t agree when people say oh before breaking bitcoin, banks will fail. IMO banks and other companies will just migrate easily. Bitcoin in the other hand will have its challenges if it want to become quantum resistant. (And not to talk about how will be possible to secure the satoshi wallet.) I think there is a report (from cloudflare) saying that 50% of TLS connections for public websites use PQC already.

Optimal-Cycle630

Not at this part of the cycle. Downside risk for the next 12 months exceeds upside risk IMO.  Maybe wait until end of 2026 and revisit 

Friendly-Profit-8590

His job is to talk about stocks. He’s not always gonna be right. Not trying to defend him but that’s literally his job. To get on tv and talk about stocks. IMO he’s better at talking about macro trends than anything but he can’t fill up air time doing just that.

Unusual_Pirate_2727

I do not see a bear market, I see manipulation at its finest, Money printer in USA will turn on pump incoming. IMO

RandomJoe7

No, first of all, I don't buy the "hype super cycle" bullshit ever, and never said that. Second of all, I also never said "its going to zero". So, both of your statements are wrong. What I said: BTC is, IMO, going to 50-70k in the next year, because I think the bullrun is over and multi-year bear market is coming. Nothing about this is "senstational" in one way or the other, it's just a pretty calm and collected thought when looking at the chart.

Lonsmrdr

I've been holding for the last 7 years. BCH IMO is the #1 coin that matters. It's the Bitcoin that unlike BTC that actually works!

Antique-Worth323

Bitcoin was over sold which is why we just had a MASSIVE dump and it’s holding in price. This will be the norm from here on out, just like the stock market. Bitcoin will grow in value the closer we get to 21M The halvings are what will move the needle. It’s estimated that the last new bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140 IMO

funnyh0b0

Quote: The persistence of Bitcoin poses a challenge to established economic principles. “I’m hoping it will bust,” Fama said, “because if it doesn’t, you have to start all over with monetary theory.” Well no shit. If something new comes along then you have to rethink your design of a theory hence why its a theory not a law. Also this whole argument comes from a just "poke holes at a technology I don't fully understand" which is kinda lazy IMO.

cosmicselva

Every single cycle (at a certain period in time) alts outperform the entire market cycle for a couple reasons. And every single cycle (at a certain point in time) alts fall the hardest from the entire market cycle for a couple reasons. People touting a certain narrative are only extrapolating half the information to fit their sentiment and purposely leaving out the other half of the picture. It’s noise. IMO. Alts have a scenario in which they outperform, we’re just not there currently. And people are failing to consider the big picture, only looking at what’s happening right now. It’s not surprising they’re doing so, most people are poor communicators and don’t know how to consider nuance in their belief systems.

Dr_jitsu

When it hit 124k I said "I am going to buy at 115." Then at 115 I said "gonna buy at 110"...then 105 on down. Unfortunately, can't really afford to buy more. Now (84) IMO, is a great time to buy.

arBettor

"Most traders know that USDT wash trading has kept BTC price up for years. " Even if you had a survey of traders to substantiate this claim, that doesn't mean anything. Do traders have some special information that the rest of us don't have access to? Tether FUD gets trotted out periodically yet it remains completely theoretical and IMO is completely false. Yet you present it as fact here. First mistake. "ETFs other than MSTR are holding their prices." Huh? Are you talking about bitcoin ETFs? They're gotten crushed alongside the bitcoin price, exactly as expected and as designed. Also MSTR is not an ETF. You're grasping at straws here and making no sense.

Romanizer

Yeah, the good thing about Bitcoin is that it rises back to ATH faster than most alternatives. For that, volatility is acceptable. Fresh money pouring in shouldn't be a problem as there is endless liquidity outside of Bitcoin. I think we can be sure of reaching new highs more than before, so 2x in 3-4 years would be really dramatically low IMO.

GenghisKhanSpermShot

https://preview.redd.it/2ro25j3iam2g1.png?width=1350&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f78b9e6e69e38a81028372b18c87309badb4ca2 I made this so some of you can realize we lost a 12 year uptrend channel and this time is probably different. I have never seen so many people in my 12 years of being in Bitcoin say just hodl, it will all be fine, it always goes up. Blackrock openly hyping and institutions and countries getting in is the nail int he coffin IMO but only time will tell.

Shazvox

Right now I'd classify it as a nation independent store of value. Meaning if you live in a country where you can't trust your government or banks then Bitcoin is a way for you to secure your finances against your government. If you live in a more "sane" country it is still technically a global currency free from tampering meaning you can use it to buy/sell whatever you want without having to involve banks (provided the other party provides/accepts bitcoin). It has the *potential* of being **the** global currency of earth, but there's a long way there and plenty of actors that wants to prevent that from happening. The technology is sound, so IMO it's only a matter of willingness from governments and maturity in the form of applicatiins and supporting infrastructure. In my head, it's not a question of *if* it will happen, but *when*.

HesitantInvestor0

You are too absolutist with this assessment IMO. You also got a few things wrong. This decision doesn't effect all indices, just the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes. None of the others like NASDAQ or whatever would be changed unless they adopt the same rules. Also this wouldn't change anything for pension funds, except again those under MSCI. I'd also say this is far from the only reason Bitcoin has been dropping. Look around for a second. There are plenty of reasons including rate cut decisions, job market weakness, broader markets weakening, AI drainage leading to risk off sentiment, illiquidity, people that believe in the 4 year cycle selling, new retail being shaken easily, end of year selling, low miner profitability. I think you're way too dramatic about this one thing, which again, is only partially correct.

jasperCrow

Ehh it’s not the worst. IMO we will very likely get a recovery bounce somewhere from 95k-100k in the next few weeks, you can sell then when suckers fomo in thinking the bull market is back on.

50sat

This isn't counter to your point, really but Bitcoin, or crypto in general, exists within a system of cycles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benner_Cycle If you're not familiar with this it's mind blowing. Being that it's generally considered an asset of some sort it's affected by cyclic pressures. Since the main sentiment about it has shifted it's been a little more fluid (IMO) as it's sort of hopped between the cycles of other asset classes a couple of times. And of course it has it's own timeline (halvings) to weigh in. Everyone that likes the stuff has a favorite cycle but yeah, if enough people just got fed up BTC or any one crypto could go to nothing in a hurry. I think we're past the point where it all vanishes without major infrastructure failure, though. Some TA (token astrology) is fun now and then :)

Dry-Caterpillar9862

I agree, it was the most boring bullrun ever. ATH before halving, didn't even reach a 2x from ATH 4 years ago. But the future looks very bright for bitcoin. IMO, this is an opportunity, not cause for despair, unless you are overextended.

Beginning_Bread_4052

Only diversify if you’re gonna put in more money. If it's just 1k, put all your eggs in one basket, it's much more effective that way. BTC and ETH are good investments, but more inclined to lean on BTC, I'm not confident enough to recommend ETH for the long term. And don't bother with XRP. It's a gamble. It will either blow up unexpectedly or (more likely) dump. Basically, not a good investment IMO