ATH

AutoModerator

Post is by: financeguruIB and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1r1hugj/market_outlook/ I just want to know how some folks can look at the current market and say that we are in a bull market still with full confidence. Please stop listening to crypto shills and other idiots on Reddit and X and use your brain. BTC hit ATH October and has since been on a multi month downtrend making lower highs and lower lows. I’m not trying instill fear or anything into yall. Just please see reality for what it is and understand the macro environment as well. Crypto also needs to be shit on every few years. This is the year they will call crypto dead and that is when you buy. Then reap the rewards 2029. Happy investing/gambling! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Mantis-Prawn

I think you are wrong, but hey, even if you were right: Did you check Nasdaq's performance during a bear market?  1) Last recovery took just ~3 years.  2) They are near ATH right now.  3) And in the last 45 years it is up +10000%

OpticallyMosache

I've done the accumulating in the bear twice and it paid off. There is a concern Bitcoin changed and this isn't going to recover again like it did. But last time it felt bad, too. And going against my instincts and emotion with BTC have always been the best moves. I sold a chunk at $110k while honestly believing it's going to $180k and maybe never returning lower. Now I have to buy while I worry we're going to $45k and maybe never hitting a new ATH within the 4 year pattern.

Comfortable-Ad-6740

I think that might be part of the point: by him buying even though it’s common knowledge that it’s near ATH, he’s signalling that there’s growth and he’s not worried nickle and diming on a few thousand diff. If instead he’d start to trim as BTC dipped, with (iirc) the largest active btc stockpile, he’d send btc into absolute free fall. I’m becoming less of a btc believer as Saylors process is centralising a lot of btc allowing for some market control (in particular in a future where btc shoots up)

ItIsRaf

Allow me to explain myself: This asset with complex computer algorithms has skyrocketed to the value of a trouble trillion. (Other than some very good computer algorithms mixed with blockchain environment, its value relies on complete speculation and some other extra complex algorithms). We are only human (greedy at most) and if devalues 90% from the ATH, someone will 100% buy more than saylor) Again, we are only human and Bitcoin will bring the greed out.

oki_sauce

Curious if the ones who were calling for 70k while we we were chilling at ATH are now calling for 40k or if they bought and didnt get scared

Inevitable-Waltz-889

Maybe not rapidly, but we're definitely going to another ATH.  And another and another after that.

No_Paper612

Redditors are dumb, inverse them. When the clarity act gets passed, we’ll reach ATH rapidly.

escodelrio

**Historical Bitcoin prices for today, February 10th:** 2026 - $69,936 2025 - $97,438 2024 - $47,771 2023 - $21,651 2022 - $43,565 2021 - $44,918 2020 - $9,857 2019 - $3,690 2018 - $8,622 2017 - $989 2016 - $382 2015 - $220 2014 - $583 2013 - $24 2012 - $5.9 2011 - $1.0 **Additional Stats:** Bitcoin's current market cap is $1.40 trillion. Bitcoin's current block height is 935933; with the average block time for the last 7 days being 9.76 minutes and the average block size for the last 7 days being 1.63MB. Bitcoin's average block time for the year 2026 is 10.65 minutes. Bitcoin's mining difficulty is currently 125.86 trillion; with the next difficulty adjustment anticipated on 20-Feb-2026 (within 1,507 blocks). The mining difficulty is currently expected to increase 11.94% to 140.89 trillion. Bitcoin's current block reward is 3.125₿, which is worth $218,551 per block. Bitcoin's average daily miners' revenue for the last 7 days is $31.71M; with the average daily miners' revenue for the last 7 days being $0.0322 per terahash per sec. The next Bitcoin halving is anticipated to happen between 26-Mar-2028 to 20-Apr-2028 (within 114,067 blocks); the block reward will fall to 1.5625₿. There are currently 25,137 reachable Bitcoin nodes. Bitcoin's average daily hashrate for the last 7 days is 985 exahashes per second. Bitcoin's average daily trading volume for the last 7 days is $75.69 billion. Bitcoin's average daily number of transactions for the last 7 days is 433,620. Bitcoin's average transaction fee for the last 7 days is 3.8 sats/VB, with the average fee's USD amount being $0.63; with the median values being 1.33 sats/VB & $0.22 respectively. There are currently 19.99M ₿ in circulation, leaving 1.01M to be mined. There are currently 4.08M ₿ held by companies, governments, DeFi, and ETFs, representing 20.40% of circulating supply. There are currently 57,974,684 nonzero Bitcoin addresses that contain 164.31M UTXOs. Bitcoin's average daily price from 18-Jul-2010 to 10-Feb-2026 is $20,129. Bitcoin's average daily price for the year 2026 is $85,892. 1 US Dollar ($) currently equals: 1,430 satoshis; making 1 penny equal 14.3 sats. Bitcoin's minimum (closing) price for the year 2026 was $62,702.10 on 05-Feb-2026. Bitcoin's maximum (closing) price for the year 2026 was $96,929.33 on 14-Jan-2026. Bitcoin's minimum (intraday) price for the year 2026 was $60,074.20 on 06-Feb-2026. Bitcoin's maximum (intraday) price for the year 2026 was $97,860.60 on 14-Jan-2026. Bitcoin's largest daily decrease for the year 2026 was -$10,317.60 on 05-Feb-2026. Bitcoin's largest daily increase for the year 2026 was +$7,853.29 on 06-Feb-2026. Bitcoin's all-time high (intraday) was $126,198.07 on 06-Oct-2025. Bitcoin is down 44.58% from the ATH. Bitcoin has not reached an all-time high in 2026. It has been 127 days since the last ATH.

Suspicious-Skill1934

the thing scary is that every other assets are a their ATH, if they drop what happen to BTC

Glittering_Pick_9738

Even at the prices below 2021 ATH we get to experience a standard dump as soon as the US markets open. Last week the volume was good. This week it subsided substantially, so people don't really rush to buy the dip. 5 year chart looks worse than that of any other asset. Fake news Fear and Greed Index starts rising again to make room for further decline.  Historically it was the best time to buy. Hopefully this time it is not going to be different. 

JOliverScott

Without getting into a debate about which snowball started this avalanche, I think it is safe to say that anybody who rode it down to this point is probably going to stay in it for the long haul. Personally I see it as institutional investors who are required to re-balance their investment portfolios annually and if they were too heavy into crypto then they started a massive sell-off which pegged the fear index and triggered retail investors to start failing out. It also doesn't help the amount of misinformation and ill-informed self-appointed online experts who keep proclaiming Bitcoin is dead to further undermine market confidence. So I would say we have reached a stabilization level which will persist until the fear index subsides and market confidence begins to pump the price back up but that could still be months, no one really knows for certain. Since Bitcoin's history demonstrates its tendency towards greater volatility, it would make sense that this level of sideway stability is, if not the floor at least close to the floor, and should not sink significantly lower for any amount of time before it begins it's climb back to the ATH and higher.

OxbridgeDingoBaby

This is nonsense advice. Even in this latest market, before the crash, DOGE rose well over $0.12. Like most alts though, it didn’t hit a new ATH, but if $0.12 is where you need to get to, it will likely hit that once we exit out of this downtrend - whenever that is.

FitCompetition1804

Yes I understand about potential diminishing returns but it boils down to what you think future ATH’s will be. Will they start to stabilize or continue to grow in similar historical patterns?

biba8163

> The great mystery of crypto for me is ETH You may want to educate yourself and learn how crypto works. I tried educating people in the ETH subs who fell for the "ETH has fundamentals" narrative and it seems people like you are still falling for it. > If you think 0.04 BTC is low, the ETH/BTC ratio is going to feel like getting kicked in the nuts over and over again over the long term as the ratio falls below 0.01 and goes lower and lower. **(Sept. 2024)** > Long term ALL Alts follow the same trend and fall below the initial BTC value they started at. Pretty much all the older Alts, even the most successful fall below this value. ETH is also trending long term to fall below this value. People talk about historic trends, patterns and cycles but this has been the only 1 undisputed and unbroken pattern for 14 years. > | | Initial | High | Current | > |:-----------|------------:|:------------:|------------:| > | LTC | 0.03 BTC| 0.048 BTC | 0.001 BTC > | XRP | 5,594 SATS| 22,500 SATS | 940 SATS > | XMR | 0.005 BTC| 0.035 BTC | 0.0029 BTC > | ETH | 0.01 BTC | 0.15 BTC | 0.041 BTC https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1fgzm3z/daily_crypto_discussion_september_15_2024_gmt0/ln9jvct/ > It's always BTC parabolic gains seeking profits and attracting attention and capital to the crypto space is the cause of appreciation. ETH is a Network Utility Token. That is all ETH is. It's competing with a many competing network utility tokens and many networks and L2s. These networks are increasingly going to be rails for stablecoins and such (97% of RWA are just stablecoins) and in order for the network to remain competitive they need to remain cheap. ETH is utility of being a rail for tokenized assets doesn't give it a $500 Billion marketcap -- ETHs value is derived from the money and investors that the pet rock brings. **(November 2024)** https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwyql0m/ > *Bitcoin, because to me it seems like it's nothing more than a pet rock* > **That pet rock is what gives ETH and Alts value.** ETH doesn't attract money and appreciate on its own like all Alts; ETH ONLY appreciate and attract capital after money flows into BTC and flows out seeking more profit. **(Nov. 2024)** > - Summer 2017, ETH hits ATH of $400 after BTC hits local top of $3,000 > - January 2018, ETH hits ATH of $1,400 after BTC hits cycle top of $20K > - May 2021, ETH hits ATH after BTC tops out in April 2021 > - Nov 2021. ETH hits ATH in December after BTC tops out in November 2021 https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwyql0m/

biba8163

> ETH/BTC was lower last year You are right but if still don't grasp that ETH will go much lower long term, you still don't understand crypto. I've was trying to explain it noobs in the ETH subs how crypto works in 2024. They didn't get it and it seems people still don't get it. > If you think 0.04 BTC is low, the ETH/BTC ratio is going to feel like getting kicked in the nuts over and over again over the long term as the ratio falls below 0.01 and goes lower and lower. **(Sept. 2024)** > Long term ALL Alts follow the same trend and fall below the initial BTC value they started at. Pretty much all the older Alts, even the most successful fall below this value. ETH is also trending long term to fall below this value. People talk about historic trends, patterns and cycles but this has been the only 1 undisputed and unbroken pattern for 14 years. > | | Initial | High | Current | > |:-----------|------------:|:------------:|------------:| > | LTC | 0.03 BTC| 0.048 BTC | 0.001 BTC > | XRP | 5,594 SATS| 22,500 SATS | 940 SATS > | XMR | 0.005 BTC| 0.035 BTC | 0.0029 BTC > | ETH | 0.01 BTC | 0.15 BTC | 0.041 BTC https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1fgzm3z/daily_crypto_discussion_september_15_2024_gmt0/ln9jvct/ > It's always BTC parabolic gains seeking profits and attracting attention and capital to the crypto space is the cause of appreciation. ETH is a Network Utility Token. That is all ETH is. It's competing with a many competing network utility tokens and many networks and L2s. These networks are increasingly going to be rails for stablecoins and such (97% of RWA are just stablecoins) and in order for the network to remain competitive they need to remain cheap. ETH is utility of being a rail for tokenized assets doesn't give it a $500 Billion marketcap -- ETHs value is derived from the money and investors that the pet rock brings. **(November 2024)** https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwyql0m/ > *Bitcoin, because to me it seems like it's nothing more than a pet rock* > **That pet rock is what gives ETH and Alts value.** ETH doesn't attract money and appreciate on its own like all Alts; ETH ONLY appreciate and attract capital after money flows into BTC and flows out seeking more profit. **(Nov. 2024)** > - Summer 2017, ETH hits ATH of $400 after BTC hits local top of $3,000 > - January 2018, ETH hits ATH of $1,400 after BTC hits cycle top of $20K > - May 2021, ETH hits ATH after BTC tops out in April 2021 > - Nov 2021. ETH hits ATH in December after BTC tops out in November 2021 https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwyql0m/

Saiyan_Gunner

How is that when Bitcoin is currently following all the past cycles? Like almost exactly the same.... Pump to ATH in Q3 and then bleed out through to the end of Jan/ early Feb.

TopClass31

Google it, you’ll find information. Why do you find that shocking ? Anybody who entered crapto for the first time at ATH around the arse end of 2021 aren’t in profit ! In fact most are down about 80-90%. Unless they have already jumped ship with huge losses.

dweeegs

Can’t wait to wake up at $66k while everything else is hitting ATH’s again

Dnlaly

I’ll HODL to the next ATH

OpticallyMosache

Maybe...it's hard to make an accurate assessment when price is collapsing. At its ATH, the sentiment was just as irrationally optimistic and it is irrationally pessimistic now. Even if I gave up on BTC as an investment to make me rich, I'd still hold at least 1 in cold storage forever. In the future, that 1 BTC in cold storage may find its value and use. Couldn't hurt to have 1 to diversify outside the traditional system/guardrails. Il If price fell to $15k, people on the fence should still try to have 1. Get 1 and then move on with life.

noviwu97

HBAR ATH in 2021 was around $0.5 with \~$6.5B marketcap. Currently it's sitting at 4B marketcap, only 40% off ATH. Tet the price is down 85%. It's just a VC pump and dump. Same as ALGO

bobbyv137

I do find it painfully comical how so many seemingly smart people 'in this space' made all sorts of claims and predictions, yet the 4 year cycle seems to have simply repeated yet again. For those unaware and trying to reframe the cycle's fundamental principle, no it's not based on percentages, or when the ATH is broken, or whether Bitcoin has a green or red year. It's the timing of the top and bottom. For the 4th time in a row, price topped in Q4 the year after the halving. This happened in 2013, 2017, 2021, and (thus far), again in 2025. And then, as per historic precedent, the bottom formed in Q4 the subsequent year. This happened in 2014, 2018, 2022. Will history repeat in 2026? We'll find out in 10 months. For the cycle to be **conclusively invalidated**, and new ATH must come in 2026 or 2027.

After_Height9724

2021 was a great year. Hit ATH’s that year and sold 1 btc. It crashed in 2022. It was 2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022

FaradayPhantom

No, but the consensus is that BTC will be worth more long term than the previous ATH. So if you’re willing to suffer the roller coaster for the run up, then you should be willing to hold for the larger ROI.

MyEXTLiquidity

You don’t have to believe me, but I have been preaching since late 2024 to my friends that Bitcoin will crash down in 2026. I actually got a second job specifically to capitalize on this and have been stashing money in a HYSA Yet, despite all that, I’ve been DCA’in since August. Not a lot. $20-$50 a week. In case I was wrong at least I had a little skin in the game. Was my reasoning. I fully expected that money in the short term to lose value and it has.  Maybe I was an idiot and could have better utilized my funds and just held that $20-$50 off but frankly I’m a simple guy and I don’t have the time or energy to try and hyper optimize everything. Easier to just have the auto buy on. In 2028-2029 I see bitcoin decently higher than our ATH this time.  This is a long winded way to say DCA. But scale your DCAs appropriately and don’t be afraid to lump sum some, as well.  I was DCA’in at 120k. I DCA at 90k. Once we broke 80k, my DCA doubled. Once we broke 70k, that DCA doubled. Deployed a good bit of my war chest at 63-60k. No more adding from the war chest currently, but still have my auto DCA for tmmrw. We have a lot of time. Don’t bite your nose off to spite your face. Sure, set some aside for a bigger drop but buying at this price right now is still a great profit if you think we will hit ATH again 

financeguruIB

Ya you have a pretty good strategy. I’m waiting for sub 50k as well to start deploying capital. Next ATH will easily be over $200,000. I’m thinking 225-250

TheMovieBuff10

If so, the bear market should be over this October/November and begin its climb to a new ATH over 2 years?

Most_Refuse9265

Only 6.6% of Bitcoin ETF holdings have sold since ATH October 2025 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-holders-diamond-hands-160516190.html

Bkokane

It used to go up a lot too. 2013 > 2017 was around 20x 2017 > 2021 was around 3.5x 2021 > 2025 was around 1.8x It’s historically never gone much below its previous ATH. So going below 60k would be unprecedented. It’s not going up as much so we should assume it won’t go down as much either. But who knows.

No_Tomato5563

ATH used to drop a lot. Just look at ATH of 2021 vs min of 2022, Or ATH of 2017 vs min of 2018, etc. They are like 1:0.3. Good source is the cvs file on CoinMarketCap.

erjo5055

I agree regarding the blue chip alts, though I think the ATH issue is more about 2021 being free money fueled mania and 2025 occurring under tighter monetary conditions. I think ETH/SOL will likely have meaningful new ATHs in 2028, though I still think BTC is the best risk adjusted return.

BigTasty1975

These Epstein and Bitcoin allegations are just fake news which will revitalize bitcoin and all the other crypto's...i bet bitcoin surges in 2026 to a new ATH and those people who say it will reach 1 million by 2030 are insiders that know whats really going on and it will reach 1 million by 2030...............

BigTasty1975

These Epstein and Bitcoin allegations are just fake news which will revitalize bitcoin and all the other crypto's...i bet bitcoin surges in 2026 to a new ATH and those people who say it will reach 1 million by 2030 are insiders that know whats really going on and it will reach 1 million by 2030.

No_Balls_No_Glory

Dude will go all in at near ATH, doesn't even know it yet 😂

northcasewhite

You will be wrong! BTC will ATH in 2026 or 2027. >Eth was like $125 a pop at one point  Do you realize ETH went from less than a dollar to $1400 in 2 years? It was bound to crash that much regardless of covid and it did fall so much before covid.

V0idScribe

No new ATH for the next 3 years imo

OsChMoScH

I remember comments about exactly that right at Silver's ATH lol

KusanagiZerg

Biggest reason for me to drop Eth is that, comparing 2021 ATH to 2025 ATH, Bitcoin did a +82.92%, whereas eth did a fucking sad +1.83%.

Chambana_Raptor

HOW are these peoole so fucking dumb. I DCA'd during the bear down to a cost basis of <$20K for BTC, <$1500 for ETH, like TWENTY FIVE for SOL. Started my sell ladders after BTC crossed last cycle's ATH. Timed the top almost perfectly this time with over 50% of my BTC holdings sold ~$120K. It was hovering there for MONTHS. It was SO easy. HOW did these morons not sell?? Not even a LITTLE profit taking?? I went almost 10X on SOL. Kept with tradition and rode the DOGE waves for what...5X all in? Only thing I didn't quite get out of was ETH but I still made enough to triple the buys I made during the last winter, when the next one comes. Now my profits have been rotated into foreign index funds that are up almost 30% in 6 months (always bet against Trump!). In a year, I'm going to start stacking back up. And most of this sub will still be idiots. Whatever, I guess. Thanks for being our exit liquidity, gang 🤑

SameWeekend13

Seriously man, ETH looks like it wants to make an ATH at this point.

SameWeekend13

So we are on our way to make a new ATH ? Specially Ethereum ?

Playful_Judge_9942

4 year cycle seems intact but there may be some slight deviations. For example this cycle we saw a new ATH before the halving - that never happened in previous cycles. This bear market may be shorter than others and we may see another ATH even sooner before the next halving than the last one but who the fuck knows what will happen?

escodelrio

**Historical Bitcoin prices for today, February 9th:** 2026 - $70,210 2025 - $96,500 2024 - $47,147 2023 - $21,819 2022 - $44,339 2021 - $46,481 2020 - $10,117 2019 - $3,671 2018 - $8,737 2017 - $994 2016 - $376 2015 - $220 2014 - $660 2013 - $23.6 2012 - $5.8 2011 - $1.10 **Additional Stats:** Bitcoin's current market cap is $1.40 trillion. Bitcoin's current block height is 935771; with the average block time for the last 7 days being 10.24 minutes and the average block size for the last 7 days being 1.59MB. Bitcoin's average block time for the year 2026 is 10.7 minutes. Bitcoin's mining difficulty is currently 125.86 trillion; with the next difficulty adjustment anticipated on 20-Feb-2026 (within 1,669 blocks). The mining difficulty is currently expected to increase 12.36% to 141.42 trillion. Bitcoin's current block reward is 3.125₿, which is worth $219,405 per block. Bitcoin's average daily miners' revenue for the last 7 days is $31.62M; with the average daily miners' revenue for the last 7 days being $0.0328 per terahash per sec. The next Bitcoin halving is anticipated to happen between 26-Mar-2028 to 20-Apr-2028 (within 114,229 blocks); the block reward will fall to 1.5625₿. There are currently 25,222 reachable Bitcoin nodes. Bitcoin's average daily hashrate for the last 7 days is 964 exahashes per second. Bitcoin's average daily trading volume for the last 7 days is $78.98 billion. Bitcoin's average daily number of transactions for the last 7 days is 427,242. Bitcoin's average transaction fee for the last 7 days is 3.93 sats/VB, with the average fee's USD amount being $0.66; with the median values being 1.46 sats/VB & $0.25 respectively. There are currently 19.99M ₿ in circulation, leaving 1.01M to be mined. There are currently 4.08M ₿ held by companies, governments, DeFi, and ETFs, representing 20.40% of circulating supply. There are currently 57,980,826 nonzero Bitcoin addresses that contain 164.36M UTXOs. Bitcoin's average daily price from 18-Jul-2010 to 09-Feb-2026 is $20,120. Bitcoin's average daily price for the year 2026 is $86,293. 1 US Dollar ($) currently equals: 1,424 satoshis; making 1 penny equal 14.24 sats. Bitcoin's minimum (closing) price for the year 2026 was $62,702.10 on 05-Feb-2026. Bitcoin's maximum (closing) price for the year 2026 was $96,929.33 on 14-Jan-2026. Bitcoin's minimum (intraday) price for the year 2026 was $60,074.20 on 06-Feb-2026. Bitcoin's maximum (intraday) price for the year 2026 was $97,860.60 on 14-Jan-2026. Bitcoin's largest daily decrease for the year 2026 was -$10,317.60 on 05-Feb-2026. Bitcoin's largest daily increase for the year 2026 was +$7,853.29 on 06-Feb-2026. Bitcoin's all-time high (intraday) was $126,198.07 on 06-Oct-2025. Bitcoin is down 44.37% from the ATH. Bitcoin has not reached an all-time high in 2026. It has been 126 days since the last ATH.

Supercc

That's not how it works. They sold at the ATH, which brought the price down 50%. In other words, they did exactly what you say they didn't.

Lavayo

The cycle is both, intact and broken. It depends what you count as being broken. The last top was at the expected time, although a bit shallow and early. But the last ATH was before the Halving, yet this did not sound as the cycle breaking but as an anomaly at most. If we see 180k this year most will agree it broke, although there will also be voices that say it's just a delayed normal cycle. If we see 150k a few months before the next halving this anomaly will be mostly ignored I think. My guess is we will have a normal bear market, maybe shorter than normal because we came down quite fast. Next (small) ATH late 26 or 27, next big leg up in 28 or 29. The earlier and higher the more people will say the cycle broke.

AttemptKitchen

Stocks still near ATH and Bitcoin cant even pump past 70k.

Bongressman

The ATH was hit in the same quarter it's always hit, and to the day... roughly 1064 days since the last ATH. It happened again, as it always does, right on cue. Q4 post halving year. 1064 days plus or minus sine the last ATH. Following year is a bear year, all year... with a few failed rallies in the middle. Each one resulting in a lower low. We have been in the scheduled bear since October.

TheHunterAmin

"Im thinking about a long term investment" , "when it going to reach 120k again I am fully out!" This sounds like a weird plan... first of all you know that BTC always breaking ATH's every 4 years. So why get out when the party starts? Second, long term investments means 10-20 years, not 2-3 years..

TopClass31

Most, reality check - only 7 coins out of the top 200 are in profit from late 2021 ATH’s. Five years is long enough to be bag holding, don’t you think :-(, at least l’m not alone. Millions others out there praying for a Crystal ball miracle !

Bigshift-2034

It’s about accumulating as much possible you can for less then ATH. Even if that means you average actually gets higher, as the ATH will go up over the years. Long game is the only game!

confusedguy1212

Seems like we’re at a funny (read: sad) crossroads. We need stocks to pump hard above their ATH so we could pump hard into our losses.

Ok-Sympathy9768

Yup.. I believe you are right about the 4 years cycle .. denial or conviction, call it what you want, I should have recognized the signs before it dipped below 100k… cost me well over a million in profit.. cashed out in tranches at 90k,80k,75k, and 69k(last ATH).. a majority of buys were lump sum at 3k, and 16k, with small amounts DCAd over that timeframe .. the last of my holdings, a small amount of exposure in IBIT ETF, equivalent to about 2 whole coins, is getting sold in about 5 minutes when the market opens (can’t go broke taking a profit)… good luck to everyone on their BTC journey…

vinyarb

So if we have a new ATH in 2026, you'll be convinced otherwise?

Whole_Complaint1376

Yer plan contradicts itself. “Thinking of Long term investment” “plan to get out at previous ath” …”my plan is to hold for $60k worth of down side if need be and then exit right before it rips past the current ATH….then fomo back in at the high and lose what gains I had by selling lower”. “Go me”

huntingforwifi

Started buying again under 100k, the lower it goes the more I throw into it. I could wait until it reaches an 80% drop from ATH, what if it only drops 50% this time? Dont want to overthink it i just buy and thats it.

Bigshift-2034

The whole point of DCA is to buy, every month or week. Doesn’t matter the price, it’s about the time in the market. Personally I’m buying for last 4 years every month, when BTC goes down by 40% I double my DCA, and only stop when it goes over ATH. Then restart 20% below new ATH.

MorriceGeorge

The 4-year cycle was due to end with ATH in or around October, which exactly what happened.

Dragnskull

my plan is to hodl until I have enough to retire and live the rest of my days financially free i also don't get out at ATH in my 401k or roth IRA

harvested

So we should only discuss bitcoin (in the bitcoin sub) at ATH to avoid running into you? What are you even here for? Bitcoin living rent free in your head ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

SatisfactionFinal287

The ATH will be sooner than we think, the crash after the next bull run as well.

Mundane-Outside8943

So should i Hodl forever? .cause we dont know the next ATH. As recorded BTC always fell 50 to even 80 percent from its ATH severel times in history. whats ur plan ?

Quintall1

So the plan is to hodl no matter what, but as soon as it comes close to ATH and could start flying you get out. Make it make sense, think about that plan again dude.

Appropriate-Talk-735

I guess new ATH this year and we already saw the bottom. The daily rsi was well below 20 and that has been perfect time to buy historically.

ggeorgieev

And a lot of people predicted 250K+ ATH this cycle right? So guess what happens when you listen to people.

Krystal-Blu

Who told you it's near the ATH?

Bl4ck_Roze

Not until it hits ATH, then buy.

No_Broccoli_4427

yea its just hit the ATH thsi cycle on oct 6 as PREDICTED in 2022 , funny how the NAY SAYERS IGNORE THIS FACT

No-Pepper6969

75% drawdown is 30k. [Last 3 cycles were 77% to 88% drawdown about 1 year from ATH.](https://www.bitcoincyclescomparison.com/) it's going straight to 20-25k by november

lenissius14

I mean, a couple of months ago there were many people on this sub saying the same about how the crash wouldn't happen again and it would bounce to it's ATH sooner...yet it already went down 50% once. In any case, DCA all the way

Happy-Drop6197

So you think the market cap will 2-3x from this ATH? Based on what exactly? The past? The smaller the cap is, the easier it is to rise.

Quirky-Reveal-1669

Close to ATH?

Bongressman

ATH? Are you... ok, OP?

livingwithrage

It’s like 50k away from its ATH.

Little_Astronaut_412

It’s not close to the ATH?

Mr_WildWolf

I love how when bitcoin drops all the “naysayers” can’t stop talking about bitcoin BUT when it is reaching ATH all of the sudden they forget bitcoin exists. 😂

RoaringDragonSword

I don't think this will happen. Look at where in the cycle this happened. We are following cycle bear market to the T. Anyone thinking we are going ATH is ignoring the clear pattern that has developed.

The_Nothing00

Bro everyone can time the market. It peaks every fall on the fourth year of the cycle and nose dives the following year. This has happened every single time. No exceptions. 2021 is 2025. 2022 is 2026. The writing is on the wall the whole time. People just get trapped in the bullish eco chamber with idiots giving out bogus predictions like "WE MOONIN' 250k EOY 2024" tier horseshit when every subsequent cycle has contracted, reaching lower and lower peaks. We didn't even 2x the previous ATH last cycle. We'll be lucky to get a 1.75x the next time people are screaming 'we moonin 500k EOY guaranteed! STACK SATS!" in 2029.

z6joker9

Everyone has unrealized losses from ATH, unless your coins are all individually and constantly setting a new ATH.

gaeee983

Healthy approach. when it was between 2-20k I was kind of worried of whether bitcoin would just fully crash, now I am just curious how long it will take to hit ATH, 4-5 year dry spell, 3-6 months intense bullrun due to some random shit? It is crazy to watch.

Bear1232

I DCA earlier and worry less. I started weekly buying when we hit $80k. Would it have been better if I caught that $60k bottom? Sure, but in the grand scheme of things I believe BTC will eventually hit another ATH. The constant thinking and stress of worrying about catching the lows (1) probably won’t move the needle much on my basis and (2) won’t be worth the gains.

BedeThaii

Don't overcomplicate and keep it simple. If the bounce makes an ATH, then it wasn't a dead cat.

WellieWelli

Yeah but this guy said 12k which would be 90% drop from ATH. Which is why I was pointing out the insanity of wanting that.

banjofrog00

She'll be back with a new ATH. Just gotta hodl

MusicalBonsai

I doubt that’ll happen. This cycle was weird. Price returned to previous ATH before the halving which normally it happens after. And now it’s dropped 50% in just 3 months after the ATH. No way it goes that low again.

CyberCrud

Never buy at ATH.  Buy 16 months before the halving.  Sell at ATH.  Repeat. 

jermcnama

All I know is the cycle has remained consistent so I’m going to ride the wave ATH Dec 2013 → Cycle low Jan 2015: ~410 days Low Jan 2015 → ATH Dec 2017: 1,067 days ATH Dec 2017 → Cycle low Dec 2018: 363 days Cycle low Dec 2018 → ATH Nov 2021: 1,061 days ATH Nov 2021 → Cycle low Nov 2022: 376 days Cycle low Nov 2022 → ATH Oct 6, 2025: 1,050 days ATH Oct 6, 2025 → ??? Wait till October.

heyheyshinyCRH

Buying? I'm panic selling at a loss, I'll buy back at ATH

No-Contribution9918

Solana did reach a new ATH in terms of market cap? It reached $75B in the 2021 cycle and reached $125B this past cycle.

No-Contribution9918

Yeah, at least SOL was able to reach a new ATH this past cycle. ADA didn't even reach half of its previous ATH.

baIIern

Well, in hindsight? If there's a new ATH, then it wasn't a DCB I'd say. If it's going lower after going up a little, it's a DCB. Don't think there's a specific line to draw though

Willing_Gas7868

Solid plan. Buying in fear with a stepped DCA from 60 → 40 reduces timing risk, and aiming for an average around $50k is reasonable. Agree that 2026 looks more like a correction year than a straight run to a new ATH. What matters now is whether BTC can reclaim recent wick levels and rebuild demand.

WellieWelli

You shouldn't be hoping for a 90+% percentage drop when bull markets are giving diminishing returns. There's no longer a 10-20x multiplier going to happen, it will be closer to 3-5x. So a 60-70% drop will be better long term, going 50k to 250k. Otherwise there's a legitimate risk based on previous cycles that it will not regain an ATH next bull market and if that ever happens you can say hello to multi-year stagnation and a slow bleed.

Embarrassed-Cod9079

Just matter of time before ATH.

seansy5000

It’s funny these bold commentaries are never posted around ATH.

Available-Evening-18

I would not say that these 3 particular examples have " failed". XRP hit a new ATH in the last 12 months, ADA is still in the top 15 and Chainlink is still important as an oracle. Examples that I believe better support your point, which I completely agree with, are Polkadot and Cosmos Hub. They seemed to have great use cases and great technology but high inflation, poor real world demand and poor marketing worked against them.

__redruM

While he’s clearly using vibes, BTC does always recover to it’s ATH given enough time sometimes it’s a couple months, sometimes a couple years.

synthwave_man

Thats what the 4 year cycle priests have told you. But that theory isn't a guarantee for anything. I think it will be invalidated this year once and for all, with BTC going back up to at least 100k, perhaps even ATH.

batfolxx

I think right now, it's going to go down but then again, it might go up (but it could go down.). So in summary it's probably going to go up (or sideways, but perhaps down). and then it will finally be dead like they have been saying for years, then hit ATH at $1,000,000

HenFruitEater

Yes it has to reach a new ATH… right??? Right?????