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About -1% in the last 5 days (DXY), not really crashing on my terms.
War makes DXY go up, BTC go down. Also makes gas prices increase.
DXY crashing and BTC...also not doing well today. Weird.
DXY is coming down nicely. Get the rocket fuel ready!
Okay, I'll bite. Core aspects of your argument: >1) Bitcoin wealth can vanish Wealth measured in bitcoin can see a large drop in value. The largest dip seen by BTC was -85%, which was back in 2013. Recently, these drops become less intense as global adoption continues, with the most recent Liberation Day -28% drop, of which almost all assets have recovered from. >2) Bitcoin Could lose value in the time of a plane flight (~3 hours) All wealth fluctuates in price--even the most stable asset, the USD, still looks chaotic when you look at $DXY. Each person has their own risk tolerance, and each asset has their own beta. Stocks dropped 13% in a single hour during COVID-19. BTC sees 5% swings at least once weekly. However, generally the trend is up across all assets due to inflation--with some assets outperforming others. >3) Other assets are superior due to turbulence This is a the classic Beta vs Sharpe ratio. As in an investor, the idea is not to minimize risk, but to optimize risk in terms of reward. >4) Gold up my ass would give me pleasure I thinking holding gold would give me pleasure, too. I would do things differently and hold gold somewhere safer other than on your person, but you do you.
A currency loses value by inflation of its supply, not by the DXY which is just a comparison of the USD against a bunch of other currencies. The dollar lost a lot of its purchasing power over the past four years after QE and high inflation. When you're looking at FX, the dollar going down makes US exports more competitive and imports to the US less competitive. You don't necessarily want the strongest currency on the block.
You need to look at BTC.D , ETH/BTC Ratio, compare the supply&marketcap from past and today on alts and also the price it was in the begin of the bullmarket to now. eg. BTC in Jan 2023: 16650$, BTC in 2025 ATH: 110k $ \+660% raise. Doge in 2023 at lowest: 0.05$ Doge ATH since: 0.47$ \+940% That's are just 2 random examples. Next I take for example LINK the comparisson between 6 June 2021 from snapshot in coinmarketcap and present. 2021: Price: 27.55$ Marketcap: 11'874'992'855.91$ Circulating Supply: 431'009'554 LINK Today: Price: 14$ Marketcap: 9.22B Circulating Supply: 657'099'970.45 Link (+52.45% more than in 2021). Which means that if LINK have same marketcap as 2021, the value will not be 27$ but 18$, this due to the diluation of the new coins in circulation. Marketcap 2021 / Circulating Supply Today = Price. But all of these are also influenced by the value of the $, DXY. If the dollar goes down, it's normal to see prices going up, it's just the devaluation of the $ but it's not a real gain. There are so much data that people just don't look after but only dream of infinite pumps, like XRP at 100$ which it will be never a reality and these people are just delusional.
This is not value - DXY doesn’t measure inflation - you Bitcoin because of other reasons and it’s probably based not on education
The -9% DXY directly corresponded to the +10% single day jump in the S&P. Money was “created” not also by printing, but the belief that the global reserve currency of the USD “jumped” and everyone was richer. USD has a large impact on BTC and it did create more liquify to flow into BTC. Everything you said is correct. But the DXY drop created money. It’s both. If basically every other country wasn’t tied to the USD via T-bills, I’d agree with you. It’s not a zero sum.
This is misleading and has got very little to do with what you think it is. DXY is a relative measure of the USD strength against other currencies. Take the EUR and It gained against the USD. So should we all EURO then? Or do we GBP, or JPY? Same reason. This is not why we Bitcoin.
DXY weakening has historically been a strong tailwind for BTC movement. Global liquidity trends are lining up, but you're right that confirmation through volume and structure is key. No rush, just smart positioning as momentum builds.
If you're referring to the chart on Trading View, the data goes through a conversion from USD to the local currency. When the USD devalues vs. other currencies (DXY going down), it makes the global M2 appear to go up. Unless you're referring to just US M2.
The correlation between falling DXY and BTC price appreciation is undeniable, but attributing the current price action solely to macro factors overlooks on-chain metrics. The declining miner capitulation and increasing network activity suggest underlying strength, potentially mitigating the impact of a future DXY rebound. A nuanced approach considering both macro and micro indicators is crucial for accurate price prediction.
How does DXY dropping lead to an increase in M2 money supply? To my knowledge, it does not. Also I'm not talking just about right now it going up - the trend for the last several months has been up.
Isn't that just because the DXY had a big drop yesterday and $180bn came off the reverse repo facility?
With global liquidity increasing and the DXY weakening, Bitcoin could be gearing up for another rally. Lower dollar strength often pushes investors toward assets like Bitcoin. Still, I’d watch for confirmation through volume and price action before jumping in, since market shifts can be unpredictable and fast-moving.
Really appreciate the detailed macro take—especially the correlations between DXY, global liquidity, and BTC. That 75–85 day offset with liquidity is fascinating and does seem to align with current BTC price action. Also agree that the upcoming policy and fiscal moves (like US bond repackaging via stablecoins) could be a major liquidity unlock for crypto. Let’s see if this aligns with a breakout in Q3. Great insight!
Easy answer. You should have a bullish bias. 1. Whenever the DXY begins to trend down below 100 the crypto markets tend to flourish. The DXY has been trending down from 110 down to 98 over the past few months and looks like it will continue that trend. The 2017 and 2021 bullruns coincided with crazy rallies while the USD was in its weakened state. 2. Global liquidity. You've probably heard about global liquidity being talked about by a bunch of KOLs and the correlation between bitcoin and global liquidity is roughly 82-87% with a 75-85day offset. What this means is that bitcoin tends to follow global liquidity directionally. Global liquidity broke a new ATH recently and has continued trending up since. Global liquidity was in a consolidation period 75 days ago which is what bitcoin has been doing for the past week. Shortly after this consolidation period global liquidity has continued trending upwards since. 3. Tariff clarity. Slowly but surely the tariffs are being finalized and priced into the market. Once the uncertainty around tariffs are removed the flood gates will open. 4. The US Treasury is stepping in to buy 4 trillion in bonds due to decreased confidence in the US treasury market globally. This will help to help deal with the 37trillion in debt that needs to be refinanced. Along with SLR exemptions for Fannie and Freddie this will aim to result in strengthening the bond market. 5. Tether/circle stable coins minting. Created on the ethereum blockchain and minted by tether and circle buying US bonds and creating digital USD on the blockchain. This is a way for the US to repackage their bonds in a more appealing way for global adoption. 6. Crypto positive trump admin. They are very pro crypto partly because of stablecoins and partly because they understand the value in investing in a direct hedge against inflation/money printing. Not only will the treasury print more money to finance the US debt but they will be heavily invested in the direct hedge against inflation resulting in a "win win" situation. Might not all be entirely correct this is just how I've interpreted the macro/TA of the financial markets currently. DYOR NFA
I'll admit that global liquidity / M2 narrative isn't playing out like I thought it would. I guess it was just the inverse DXY after all.
So far the DXY and 10-yr yield are moving more to the "risk off" side since the news came out.
That explains why the DXY just popped.
Its stupid to sell now when global liquidity is pumping like crazy,DXY keeps falling,we have been in consolidation/dip for last 6 months.. Also QT is probably ending in next 90 days,and rates cuts are coming. Honestly,i wouldnt sell before we see QE and rates below 2%.. Sell in greed,not fear
DXY just keeps tumbling down. Tariff scare was barely a blip. Imagine holding cash right now.
DXY was dumping hard last night. Trump had to tweet something. That worked for like 15 minutes, then it went back to dumping.
Just fyi, not fud, but if you want to adjust for both inflation and relative dollar value, the symbol in tradingview is CRYPTO:BTCUSD*(TVC:DXY/99.642)*(FRED:CUUR0000SA0R/31.2) Change the 99.642 to whatever DXY is today, and the 31.2 to whatever the cpi is. This important, IMHO, bc the actual adjusted ath is about 121,340.
You may find the DXY interesting, it measures USD vs a basket of global currencies. Just remember that USD can remain flat on this graph and still inflate, if the others inflate at the same rate.
DXY dollar index is down 10% since the previous ATH
Thanks for telling us that you don't know that CPI and DXY are not the same thing.
The Stock Market today was teetering because of the lack of demand in the auction of U.S Treasury Notes led to a spike in yields to try to entice buyers. I've always been against Gold but listening to Ray Dalio in February, I finally started buying Gold this year. And of course, I hold BTC. What he said in February is very relevant to what happened today, what is happening to the DXY (measure of U.S dollar against other relevant currencies) and the Bond Market. > The goverment interest rate is the backbone of all markets. Stock market, bond market, all borrowing. All lending everything. > Inflation, think of the number 3%. 3% of GDP. We have a projected deficit of 7.5% of GDP. That means all those bonds have to be sold and because of the supply demand imbalance...when I calculate the buyers of the bonds, there will not be enough buyers, and it could be worse in this dynamic because those who own bonds could also sell them when that happens there is a tremendous supply demand imbalance, then we have big problems. > Think about the value of debt and money, when debt is money. > Then it's about the supply/demand of debt. That will be the driver. If you have a supply demand problem, and you do and you will, what does the government do about that? If they don't provide the buying, then interest rates go up. That has a bad effect on everything. > We don't think enough about what is alternative money. Debt is money. When you're holding debt, you're holding the promise to get money. When you hold money, you're essentially holding it in debt. That is our biggest risk. The money part of our risk > **So what is your alternative money. Do you have an alternative money? Yes, Gold, Bitcoin is alternative money. Think about debt and money when debt is money. Throughout history it's always the interest rate you get that is temptation and is it enough to deal with the supply demand problem?** https://youtu.be/bXFRAXuEi_E?t=122
The Stock Market today was teetering because of the lack of demand in the auction of U.S Treasury Notes led to a spike in yields to try to entice buyers. I've always been against Gold but listening to Ray Dalio in February, I finally started buying Gold this year. And of course, I hold BTC. What he said in February is very relevant to what happened today, what is happening to the DXY (measure of U.S dollar against other relevant currencies) and the Bond Market. > The goverment interest rate is the backbone of all markets. Stock market, bond market, all borrowing. All lending everything. > Inflation, think of the number 3%. 3% of GDP. We have a projected deficit of 7.5% of GDP. That means all those bonds have to be sold and because of the supply demand imbalance...when I calculate the buyers of the bonds, there will not be enough buyers, and it could be worse in this dynamic because those who own bonds could also sell them when that happens there is a tremendous supply demand imbalance, then we have big problems. > Think about the value of debt and money, when debt is money. > Then it's about the supply/demand of debt. That will be the driver. If you have a supply demand problem, and you do and you will, what does the government do about that? If they don't provide the buying, then interest rates go up. That has a bad effect on everything. > We don't think enough about what is alternative money. Debt is money. When you're holding debt, you're holding the promise to get money. When you hold money, you're essentially holding it in debt. That is our biggest risk. The money part of our risk > **So what is your alternative money. Do you have an alternative money? Yes, Gold, Bitcoin is alternative money. Think about debt and money when debt is money. Throughout history it's always the interest rate you get that is temptation and is it enough to deal with the supply demand problem?** https://youtu.be/bXFRAXuEi_E?t=122
The Stock Market today was teetering because of the lack of demand in the auction of U.S Treasury Notes led to a spike in yields to try to entice buyers. I've always been against Gold but listening to Ray Dalio in February, I finally started buying Gold this year. And of course, I hold BTC. What he said in February is very relevant to what happened today, what is happening to the DXY (measure of U.S dollar against other relevant currencies) and the Bond Market. > The goverment interest rate is the backbone of all markets. Stock market, bond market, all borrowing. All lending everything. > Inflation, think of the number 3%. 3% of GDP. We have a projected deficit of 7.5% of GDP. That means all those bonds have to be sold and because of the supply demand imbalance...when I calculate the buyers of the bonds, there will not be enough buyers, and it could be worse in this dynamic because those who own bonds could also sell them when that happens there is a tremendous supply demand imbalance, then we have big problems. > Think about the value of debt and money, when debt is money. > Then it's about the supply/demand of debt. That will be the driver. If you have a supply demand problem, and you do and you will, what does the government do about that? If they don't provide the buying, then interest rates go up. That has a bad effect on everything. > We don't think enough about what is alternative money. Debt is money. When you're holding debt, you're holding the promise to get money. When you hold money, you're essentially holding it in debt. That is our biggest risk. The money part of our risk > So what is your alternative money. Do you have an alternative money? Yes, Gold, Bitcoin is alternative money. Think about debt and money when debt is money. Throughout history it's always the interest rate you get that is temptation and is it enough to deal with the supply demand problem? https://youtu.be/bXFRAXuEi_E?t=122
The 20 yr US bond auction went terribly and a reflection of fat donny's terrible foreign and economic policy. DXY dropped a little as did the US stock market. BTC hit a new ATH while that happened. I think USD is unraveling as global reserve and BTC is taking its place.
Compared to other currencies (aka the DXY), yes. In terms of purchasing power? Absofuckinglutely not. You need $135 2025 dollars to buy what $100 got you in 2016. The dollar has lost half of its value since 1995 and the trajectory is not improving.
It’s a genuine question. [The USD is stronger than it’s been for the majority of the last 50 years.](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?utm_source=iosapp&utm_medium=share) Your graph showing the last 5 years against a random currency doesn’t really sway me. Sorry.
Can someone explain this to me? The DXY is at the same level as it was in 1972, and it’s been oscillating up and down ever since then. If anything, it’s spent more time below this level than above. Am I missing something?
All time low? DXY is exactly where it was in September.
DXY down because of the credit downgrade like I said
Kind reminder that the DXY lost like 8% since the last Bitcoin ATH. So $105,000 then is worth about $114,000 now.
can't be that bad, DXY bottomed in 2021 at the heights of the bull market and then accelerated upwards when bitcoin flipped bearish
Got it. Correct. U.S. CoL didn’t go up just because USD is down on the DXY. These are tangible gains if one sells.
Does help that the DXY is down 10%. The 105k btc is really the 95k btc of January..
Ironically it seems that when the US-China trade progress was announced, the DXY shot up into the "risk-off" category and the crypto rally completely sputtered. Maybe it's just a coincidence or maybe all that global M2 money is going to flow into stonks?
Then the DXY should drop, causing BTC to pump I would think
It doesn’t matter… and once they understand that, then they buy… $500k $5mm, if you need to move $1.8mm USD and buy a house in AUD, it doesn’t matter what the price is, you’re buying the transaction… no one is saving in USD and looking up the DXY ticker. They’re just saving their money
Wow the DXY really rallied on that trade deal news. Looks like global liquidity is finally rolling over too. Probably have another month of crypto pump left until a break.
This is why I watch, equally, both the BTCUSD chart and the DXY-corrected BTCUSD chart. It’s still up a lot recently, after correcting for the USD losing value, but just not as much. OP is correct, after correcting for dollar’s performance Bitcoin is just slightly less than the level it was at when it first breached $100k on December 5th 2024.
Yes, but BTC has shown a decent amount of resilience across most currencies and for Americans has provided a hedge against the intentional destruction of DXY from this administration. BTC/USD YTD: +7.93% BTC/Euro YTD: -0.67% Dollar is definitely down lol
Little dramatic, dollar is still higher (DXY) than it has been the majority of time since 2000. Few months ago people were talking about dollar/euro parity, we are more or less just back to a historically normal range
DXY bottomed two weeks ago and has increased modestly since then
What you also need to watch is the DXY and the overall picture📊 If you look closely, there are many countries and institutions taking positions behind the noise. Buy what hasn't gone up yet, do your DCA, and wait! That's my advice 😉🤙🏽
Honestly, the market feels like it’s in that classic disbelief phase. Everyone’s expecting a dip, which ironically sets us up for a grind higher. But macro still matters—if the Fed blinks or liquidity rotates in, BTC could rip. If not, we might chop or bleed. But some sectors are showing early strength—Solana DeFi and AI infra especially. Saros is building something real on the DeFi side with zero-slippage trades and native superapp UX. On the AI/data side, Ocean still feels like one of the only serious bets. Just keeping tabs while everyone stares at Bitcoin candles. DXY, ETF flows, and meme volume as early signals.
If you are looking for generalized correlations, check out the Bitcoin price vs Gold vs the DXY vs M2. In other words, commodities against the value of the money against the money supply. That's your explanation.
EURUSD went down almost 1% since 4/21 DXY up similar amount
This is the funniest bait post I've seen lately 😂 considering decline in DXY, ATH would already be in.
As an outsider I can tell you that the DXY was killing ii. Why do I know? because a stayed in USD for a long time before jumping in to BTC Trump shat the bed. Doesn’t matter to me because us products got cheaper because USD went down and European currencies went up.
Yeah it’s going up now a lot against the USD as the DXY is falling. Look at BTCEUR and see how much weaker it looks than BTCUSD, because the dollar has collapsed 9% in two months.
The image presents a comparison between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin prices from around 2017 to 2025. The key message it conveys is a possible inverse relationship between the strength of the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin bull markets, particularly during so-called "Mania Phases" in crypto. Here’s how to interpret it: Key Elements in the Chart: Green Line = DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Orange Line = Bitcoin price Green Highlighted Zones = Periods labeled as "Mania Phase" Green Circles = Points where DXY breaks below 100 Timeline = Covers from 2017 to projected 2025 Meaning: 1. Inverse Correlation: In each “Mania Phase,” DXY breaks below 100 — signaling weakness in the U.S. dollar. At or soon after these break points, Bitcoin begins to surge, often dramatically — hence the term “Mania Phase.” 2. Historical Pattern: Around late 2017, DXY dropped below 100 and Bitcoin hit its then-all-time high (\~$20k). Again, in mid-2020, DXY dropped below 100, preceding the 2021 bull run where Bitcoin peaked over $60k. In early 2024, DXY again breaks below 100 — prompting the question: “Mania Phase?” — implying another bull run might be coming or has started. 3. Speculative Insight: The image suggests that Bitcoin rallies often coincide with periods of dollar weakness. It implies that the current macro conditions may be setting up a similar scenario, possibly leading to another Bitcoin bull market. Contextual Takeaway: If the U.S. Dollar Index is falling (especially below the psychologically significant level of 100), it may reflect macroeconomic uncertainty or inflation concerns, leading investors to seek alternatives like Bitcoin — especially as a hedge or speculative asset. Would you like help finding or analyzing the current DXY and Bitcoin trends?
i think theyre implying a weak dollar / DXY below 100 correlates with Bitcoin rising rapidly
I think he's trying to say the DXY is going below 100, which means a weak dollar. I think this generally means the printer is coming.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=ALL
US dollar index - represents how the dollar is doing against a basket of foreign currencies. When it breaks below 100 it show's that a hundred bucks is actually doing worse than 100 Euros. And that's when things are off the charts bad. [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=60M](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=60M)
Many many cryptos have potential to go up this year. We are in a bull cycle and we are hanging out at serious lows, particularly in Alts. If I had anything left to invest I would be picking up some bargain basement alts right now. Yes this year also holds volatility on Macro front particularly til tariffs worked out. But we also have a lot of tailwinds toward bull including lower DXY and likely easing/cuts. Good luck!
DXY is roughly at 99-100 - Bitcoin is $95k DXY was roughly 100 in September - Bitcoin was $62k. Yen/AUS/CAD still way down. Euro and Ruble are up.
Huh? Do you even read charts? Or do you just post based on your emotions? DXY is just under 100. Last time DXY was near 100 (Sep 2024), BTC was only at \~$62k. But get real, retail is buying the shit out of BTC right now.
And it’s still higher than its average going back to 2015, and has been range bound and chopping for quite some time, which is what Bitcoin will do in return. Most markets are that way due to the uncertainty. OP is probably just another young kid that wants to get rich quick and has zero understanding of how any of this works. The DXY did break a critical support on the daily before it bounced back up recently. When we retest it and head back down this post will make a little more sense, but not by much lol.
It’s complicated. Bitcoin is denominated in Bitcoin. By its nature, you have forex risk to every other currency in the world that ppl might exchange for a bitcoin (including off exchange). USD investors just benefited from forex. The DXY tanked and Bitcoin/USD went up. There’s a ton of factors at play but I’m sure some of our EU friends saw they could buy the same amount of BTC for less euros and the smart ones pulled the trigger.
DXY is bouncing back up while gold is tanking.
Gold has been diving back down while DXY is bouncing back up. But BTC is still holding up.
Stocks dump= BTC pump DXY dump= BTC pump Stocks pump= BTC pump DXY pump= BTC pump. It seems like we might be entering the phase where it doesn't even matter what anything else does, BTC pumps.
DXY massive rally on the news. Did the markets really believe he was serious?
DXY is not a “reserve” currency. Not by a long shot. Call it global liquidity, fine, but absolutely not reserve.
Hard to be exited about 90k when DXY has been falling off a cliff.
Not really. DXY was at this level nearly every year for the last three. Plus debt is still dollar for dollar. Lower DXY gets the better consumer/margin debt gets.
Tech socks annihilated SPY down 3% DXY down 1% Euro up 1% Bitcoin and gold up 3% It's begun.....
BTC +4% NASDAQ -2.5% and DXY -10% to a 3 year low WITHOUT any rate cuts yet.
Bitcoin is going to $0 just like DXY
Bonds and stocks dropping with DXY. Not ideal for the fed. Need one of those big red buttons Fiatello had.
M2 skyrocketing, DXY crashing, legislation turning, institutions getting orange pilled. Imagine not owning any BTC right now?
Is that how purchasing power is measured? How much foreign paper one can buy? No. Purchasing power is measured by how many goods and services you can buy. Did prices climb 10% in the last 3 months? No. DXY ≠ inflation/deflation.
I’m not here to claim that bitcoin will be the reserve currency. Could be a digital yuan, could be the euro. Could indeed be bitcoin. Who knows. All I know is the dollar has lost 10% of its power since beginning of the year against the other currencies in DXY. People aren’t really talking about that. But…. This should give us all concern.
DXY index gives a pretty clear picture.
DXY is basically USD vs. euro, it means very little. All other moves are nothing.
BTC is not going up, USD is going down. Watch the Dixie, (USD currencies index,DXY, stands at approximately 98.32, marking a significant drop down). Watch BTC/EUR (down 2% last month) BTC/GDP and BTC/JPY, not only BTC/USD. If you live everywhere else in the world USD went down and BTC just went down a little less, but down all the same. Good news the bitcoin isn't taking this hit, but if I was a US resident shit like this would worry me.
> DXY falling 10% in 3 months also doesn't mean US citizens have 10% less purchasing power for real world goods & services. The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. So...yes thats exactly what that means relative to holding other countries currencies.
Changes in purchasing power are measured by inflation, not the DXY.
A lot of talk about the weakness of the US dollar. At the time of writing, it stands at \~98 points after dropping from \~109 points 3 months ago. It's not as severe as some people make it out to be, so let's put it into perspective. 98 points is about the average DXY value of the last 50 years. In other words: the dollar is just as strong as it was in in 1973. DXY falling 10% in 3 months also doesn't mean US citizens have 10% less purchasing power for real world goods & services. Prices didn't rise 10% in the same time.
The dollar is falling harder than S&P 500 Futures: [DXY Trafing view](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/) Serious USD outflows. Gold also rising strong.
Soon. It’s pumping on a holiday and a Sunday, books thin, low volume. So quiet you could hear a pin drop in this sub. Futures red, $DXY sliding even further and BTC 4H closes on a bull divergence. “Bitcoin doesn’t move gradually. It launches.”
Guys, just have a look at the DXY. The US dollar is going down the drain.
Imbeciles, DXY has fallen off the cliff. Euro/usd is up 0.50%. Your btc hasn’t moved