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DXY with a nice breakout. Going to put pressure on risk assets.
Naaaa, nobody needs to be told what money is. How it operates behind the scenes and how it works beyond just transactions is a different thing! Mike Maloney is a great plug for the history of it THE MONEY MASTERS, great historical video Something that demonstrates Fiat without backing is not real money... ... But generally people look at money as not an investment. But what you spend to get products and services And I think this was more true when we were getting around 0% for savings, still true in Banks but with online banks and money market funds we can get around 4% now... Then money becomes more of an investment when you can beat the inflation rate at least... Not to mention, figuring out foreign exchange rates and DXY...
Don't listen to amateurs, use this: [https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals](https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals) Pros use data driven approaches and confirm confluence with fundamentals and important news; in this line of thought I also think that some underrated tools is using other (macroeconomic) symbols, namely, $DXY, $SPY, $CPC, $BTCEUR, $TOTAL; why? Because: \- $DXY; when dollar goes up, $BTC goes down, thus when dollar goes down $BTC goes up and the intensity of this movement is directly proportional to $DXY and $BTCDOM \- $SPY; $BTC is significantly correlated to the american market, when $SPY goes up, $BTC typically goes up and viceversa \- $CPC; since $BTC is significantly correlated to the american market, you can use the total put call ratio to gauge the reversals; when $CPC tops, $BTC bottoms, and when $CPC bottoms, $BTC tops; we haven't bottomed out $CPC yet... \- $BTCEUR; this is a more realistic view of $BTC price action without dollar fluctuations, so movements here tend to show the actual picture of $BTC value \- $TOTAL; same approach as above, but encompassing the whole crypto picture; paired with $CPC this will allow you to determine wether we've reached a local top in $BTC or an actual $TOP in the whole crypto market Be mindful that you can always swing short too, so instead of buying you can also try to go short... I don't think it is time to short yet...
DXY — U.S. Dollar Index Chart — TradingView https://share.google/W9WOLGyYJBJnfqMJX Rapidly losing value... Lol. Looks like totally standard fluctuation historically.
That last little line down (2025) is the "collapsing" Reddit is obsessed about. Lol, zoom out and get a freaking grip. DXY — U.S. Dollar Index Chart — TradingView https://share.google/W9WOLGyYJBJnfqMJX
It means the DXY is at 69 and inflation spikes to 420
I'll give two answers. For most people? Lump sum. If you're in the 99.9% who aren't deep in markets every day, just buy and hold. As they say, time in the market beats timing the market. This is anyone who hasn't personally built winning trades for a living with a team for many years. Easy game. For experienced professional traders at major shops? Lump sum. I see some signs that suggest bitcoin might be a little warm at this price, but not so much I want to time it and def not a FOMO over-heated froth. Price is a bit above cost of production, front page memes show some signs of excitement, and it's hard to know how much demand has been pulled forward by treasury companies. My biggest fear is that treasury companies get themselves over-extended. But as a long-term entry I'm happy here, I've lump sum'd recently myself. Demand catalysts are everywhere (see treasury companies, strategic reserves, US admin and family betting big on bitcoin). Fiat markets are flashing major warning signs (see DXY, US treasuries, government debt loads), while crisis correlations with bitcoin have broken down many times this year (see liberation day, threats to fire Powell). I don't see this as the time to get fancy, especially since tradfi assets look so weak themselves, but if you're a rich person on a bitcoin standard and wanted to sell say 1-year+ covered calls on 25% of your position to de-risk a bit, I could get behind that.
Took you this long? What was your first guess? When he shilled ADA and scammed his followers? Or when he made a big show about investing Bitcoin and flipped the reserve bill? Or when his son is actively shilling coins and takes credit when the price goes up and barely returns to local ATH? Or when Trump rugpulled his own coin? Or when he’s actively destroying the DXY to speedrun a USD crash and fluff up BTC value?
Meh, the R2 of Bitcoin to DXY is like -.25 or something. Good enough to make a snide remark IMHO
There seems to be only one answer in this thread, which is diversification. It's a great answer, the only free lunch in investing. But it's ironic that few have calculated the efficient frontier of their investments. When you look at these analyses, they almost always limit how much of the portfolio can be bitcoin, or lower assumptions about future bitcoin returns, or both. It might be reasonable to lower expectations for future bitcoin returns, but if we're going there, why not also consider the future expected returns of stocks and bonds? Because at outrageous PEs and bond rates lowered by QE, the future looks bleak for these assets to me. That's why I only own bitcoin, because I see that: \- tradfi is massively under-allocated to bitcoin. Trillions needs to be bought to come into line with even the most conservative efficient frontier tradfi models \- bonds are over-valued by a LOT. Lending money to the US gov at 5% for 30 years is insane. That barely keeps up with inflation if it keeps up at all, which means they are priced for perfection despite the obvious warning signs. \- stocks have insanely high PEs historically despite facing unprecedented disruption risk from AI, not to mention the demographic overhang of the boomers moving into retirement and switching from price-insensitive buying to price-insensitive selling. There's also the risk of foreign investors pulling funds due to dollar under performance, since they measure returns in their local currency (see DXY recent performance) If there is a tradfi crisis and I start seeing things priced in bitcoin that make some sense to me, I will diversify. Until then, no thanks, just bitcoin for me. My mind has value to yield buying power, that's my portfolio diversification.
The DXY was wayyy lower than this through most of the 2000's, and even up until the pandemic ended. Nothing crazy happening here.
I can tell your DXY quotes are delayed because we're well down to 97.7 live.
This sudden pump is because the USD is just dying before our very eyes lol. The USD DXY just dropped from 98.85 to 98.4 in barely half an hour. That's why Gold and BTC immediately shot up in the same timeframe. People are shedding themselves of the dollar and getting into a currency/asset that's more stable globally.
Damn, the Dollar (DXY) just got obliterated in the last hour, 125k incoming?
The DXY just cratered in the last 15 minutes. Anybody hear anything?
DXY continues to rally, probably on the stablecoin legislation passing the House tomorrow (maybe).
The DXY up big today though. And up 2.5% so far in the month of July.
It's not \*all\* of the effect, but don't forget that the dollar is having a crap year too - [DXY down nearly 10% YTD](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?utm_source=google_ads&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=PPCNONBRAND_GOOGLE_GLOBAL_EN_SALES_GENERIC&utm_id=20367781676&utm_term=dollar_index&utm_content=666074055065&matchtype=e&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=20367781676&gbraid=0AAAAABUK9i2uE754uyHnKLuoKbTaB1Si5&gclid=CjwKCAjw1dLDBhBoEiwAQNRiQWxaQeuGchDaL03B8doRcSsWglQZ4QE5IjQ8K89JjC_u_ubZeEO3WxoC9QwQAvD_BwE&timeframe=YTD).
swopping USD to BTC seems like a no brainer. DXY's gonna dump
The dollar value (Index DXY) has also been decreasing so it's both a combination of Bitcoin increasing in value as much as it is the dollar weakening.
"Bitcoin has been absolutely pumping ... and refusing to give back any gains" "..nothing announced will be particularly bullish for Alts" Its okay to say you are sidelined or scared. But nothing you wrote is based in any sort of logic. A lot of speculation. Alts move when risk appetites grow. Alts move when liquidity (M2) ticks up. Alts move when the DXY drops. Alts move when rates decrease. Now obviously its a little more complex, but 3/4 conditions I listed above are met, the 4th is nearly met, once we resolve the tariff drama and we roll into a business cycle later this year (presumably). Also alts didn't recently start their outperformance. TOP ALTs ... or mostly Ethereum, has been outperforming Bitcoin for months. This + institutional flows + positive regulatory correlation + stablecoin interest + so much shit... The signs aren't there to say alts are dead. The signs are there to say they are going to start running hot within the quarter. https://i.redd.it/ahumnq33ypcf1.gif
Yes I'm familiar with DXY and USD trading pairs, you're zoomed out a bit here. USD has been slowly rising against the euro for the last 9 days so I don't see how this correlates to bitcoins pump today
DXY is skyrocketing right now, probably because another Fed governor opened his mouth (this time on CNN) and said you have a better chance of finding a gold-shitting unicorn under your bed than seeing the Fed cut rates this year.
Huh? It's not even the lowest in the 2020s. DXY was lower in 2022, and dipped into the 80s in 2020. It was in the 70s in 2014, and it's lowest was 70.68. We're at 97.6, it's not even remotely close.
It's only at ATH because of the crash of DXY, still 5,500€ before its there
Ok. 2022 the DXY was at 95…….
The DXY has sat between 90 and 110 in the last 5 years. It’s currently at 98 so it’s not really a heavy decline. A year ago it was at 101.
I never see the opposite comment when DXY is pumping. Almost like it doesn’t really matter.
I'm starting to belive in bitcoin and it took me 17 years and I'm of average intelligence so maybe everyone else like me is finally starting to wake up to reality. For a macro based prediction on non-equities style assets like gold bitcoin real estate etc.., you could maybe just observe the m2 money supply, inflation rate, and your fiat index. For example the DXY index is down 10%, inflation is up 2.4% and m2 money supply up 1.96%.....there's probably some formula chat gbt could hallucinate to forecast expected price movements
It's still discounted everywhere, the dollar is crashing. Check out the DXY chart which compares the buying power of USD to a basket of major currencies.
BTC BB 3D tighter than ever with BILLIONS in liquidations @ $111k. The breakout will be MASSIVE. DJT extends tariff pause, stocks breaking ATH’s, M2 moving higher and $DXY to break the 14y trend line. Are you ready for tomorrow? New BTC ATH coming in HOT. New ATH this month, you read it here first
Look at the DXY and M2, I bet new ATH by end of July
In the first half of this year, the DXY fell by a staggering 12%.
> First off, MW is a left-leaning hack gaggle. I mean, it's an index tracker.. What's left-leaning about literal numbers? This is so dumb, please get out of your bubble sometimes.. Here is the exact same data on a different site: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/ Or are these numbers left-leaning too? > With that out of the way, if you don't understand a lower dollar attracts more investments to the U.S., then you don't understand basic markets... Ladies and gentlemen, there it is! The "I have zero clue about economics" award winning comment :D! Yes, inflation is great for .. companies looking to score a cheap deal overseas? However, the people living in a country don't really benefit from their money becoming worth less and less, I hope that's understood? Otherwise, ask the Japanese how the Yen dropping has been for them! Spoiler: Disastrous. But I'm sure you can name some countries that benefitted from their currency inflating rapidly.
Well within its LT range, has been roughly in the same place for 10 years. Look up the DXY
If you want to look at the dollar, then look at DXY. This chart is showing just as much on the euro. If you look at volatility, they basically have the same valuation as 5 years ago. I would not call that very volatile...
Why would you stake USDC as a European. Dollar is literally going to shit against most foreign currencies. Look at the recent DXY charts
Let's not talk about bribes after the last admin. No matter what, no president or head of state should take money given to him/her or their family, directly or indirectly. If Trump just starts trying to fire people, he will lose. Powell has stated numerous times he only uses data to make decisions on fed policy. Which is why we had 9% inflation in 2022 (which he was directly responsible for). It's not like he didn't know they printed a metric fuck ton of money and kept rates low. Now, data is showing to lower rates, has been showing to lower rates and he hasn't. His answer? He believes the tariffs will cause inflation. What happened to only using the data? Why now are we waiting to see how the economy will react to the tariffs. It's not like they don't meet 10 times a year and it's not like they haven't called special or emergency meetings. Granted, I don't think Trump should have threatened him either. It's not very presidential. Nothing about Trump is. The DXY is dropping and the time to refinance the debt is here. Had Powell lowered rates when the data showed, we could have refinanced the debt and been in better shape. Trump has less than 2 years before midterms, he's got to get it done before then so he can show the country his plan works. With Powell changing his tune on how he makes decisions, it appears to be politically motivated. Making the workable time before mid terms even shorter. Powell is giving Trump the ammunition to blame Powell. It won't matter, because by the time we find out if it worked or not, midterms will be over. Then it will be 2 years of "impeachment" trials and once again our government has failed us. I say let him do things within the law. So what if it works. And if it doesn't, then the mid terms will be exactly what I believe they would've always been, another circus.
Dude btc is LIMP. DXY is absolutely cooked. Even AUDUSD is flying and trust me AUD is USDs bitch, so that says a lot. And btc is only 110k and almost under 90k euros
True but im not saying "sell in EUR", im suggesting "watch prices in Eur". BTW: Still looking for a better option. Id like a btc/x chart comparing to many currencies at once, similar to how DXY displays usd
Soon as trading on the DXY, gold, silver, oil, etc. opened up, memes started pumping also. It's all algos doing the work but who knows where the liquidity is coming from.
Look what SP500 does and then BTC does, so you'll see how your coin will do. Check BTC.D, TOTAL1. TOTAL2, TOTAL3. Compare the supply coins of your tokens when it was ATH to now and see how much the price could be if a certain marketcap reached for that. Also look at DXY, the dollar becoming more and more worthless would give you a false impression that everything is increasing in price but instead it just reflect the current price of dollar. also USDT.D how many money are kept on hold and waiting vs invested. and many other stuff.
Do the research on the fed. The Federal Reserve System was significantly shaped by a secret meeting held on Jekyll Island, Georgia, in 1910. A group of powerful bankers, led by Senator Nelson Aldrich, gathered at the Jekyll Island Club to devise a plan to reform the nation's banking system and prevent future financial panics like the one in 1907. This plan, which included the establishment of a central bank with regional branches, eventually formed the basis for the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. The meeting was held in secrecy, with participants initially denying its occurrence. The primary goal was to address the weaknesses in the existing banking system and prevent future financial crises. (Which we now know has failed multiple times). They never admitted to this meeting until 1933. The Jekyll Island Club was a private retreat for wealthy and influential individuals, including prominent figures like J.P. Morgan and Joseph Pulitzer. Shocker! The Fed is a countable to no one. They print money at will, which is part of the reason we are so far in debt. They attempt to "control" inflation and keep it at 2-3%. First, democratic president Franklin D. Roosevelt suspended the gold standard for domestic transactions in 1933, allowing the government to increase the money supply and stimulate the economy. Then, Republican President Richard Nixon ended the international convertibility of the dollar to gold in 1971, effectively ending the gold standard entirely. In the 1970s, the U.S. faced pressure from rising inflation and a potential "gold run". To address this, Nixon ended the dollar's convertibility to gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system, which had linked currencies to the dollar, which was in turn linked to gold. So, the Federal Reserve System doesn't work. We have had runaway inflation that the Fed was suppose to curb, but hasn't. This is why there are calls to either audit the Fed or end the Fed. 1 of the other problems with Powell is, he has constantly said he only relies on data and not speculation, which was his excuse for having 9% inflation in 2022. However, now he is saying that even though the data suggests rates should be cut, he is using speculation of the tariffs that "might" cause inflation. Also, every 4 years the US restructures their debt (falls in line with the M2 money supply). However, if our debt is restructured now with higher rates, it will cost the US much more in interest. By lowering the rate, we can have a better rate to refinance our debt (much like people who refinance their house at lower rates). Ironically, even though Trump appointed him originally, Biden reappointed him. Then, late to the party Powell, allowed inflation to run rampant after printing so much money in 2021 with low rates, that caused inflation. Now, with inflation at 2.2% (which in line with Fed practices, and job growth slowing, he is using the tariffs as his reason for not lowering interest rates. Which could send us into a recession. Trump is begging him to cut rates, as he normally would, and if it looks as though inflation would be on the rise, to raise rates then. To keep them artificially high is costing the US money on paying our debt. So Powell is actually hurting the American people with higher interest rates. I hope this helps. I do believe a new monetary system is coming. Many countries are buying more gold which means there is less reliance on the world reserve currency, the US Dollar. The dollar is falling (check the DXY) and interest rates are high. Prime conditions when the dollar is falling is lower interest rates so people will borrow more. Currently, it costs almost 3 cents to make a 1 cent penny. (Another reason why this will be the last year the penny will be minted). The new monetary system will be similar to what we already use, digital, it will just be much faster to transact after Nov when ISO 20022 goes into effect. While still using physical money, I believe it will be phased out over time. Change will soon be rounded to the nearest nickel if you pay with cash. If you use digital money, ie. debit cards, credit cards, apple pay, Google pay, or digital wallets, you will get the correct change. This will be the incentive to push everyone into using digital wallets.
Holy shit DXY is in the absolute bins. Btc is 15% away from the EUR all time high in Jan but only 4% away from ATH in USD from a few weeks ago A good portion of this move is an arthritis pump. I hope to see 120k+ BTC at these USD values
Surprised Bitcoin isn't climbing as DXY hits three year low.
tldr; The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022, reflecting a weakening USD amidst geopolitical tensions like the Iran-Israel conflict. Unlike previous crises, the dollar has not shown its typical safe-haven strength. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has rebounded to $107,930 after briefly dipping below $100,000, with analysts noting its resilience and potential as a new emerging market asset. Comparisons are drawn to the early 2000s when a weakening dollar spurred growth in emerging markets and commodities. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
I don’t understand why so many people buy other coins, other than bitcoin. Bitcoin has a brand new all-time high every three or four years. Most coins can go for seven or more years without ever seeing the previous all-time high. I get it, people are drawn in with the promise of larger gains in a shorter amount of time. Do those gains really matter if you plan on holding the same thing for the next 30+ years? I thought the whole point of crypto was a safe haven against the US dollar. For some people they are just trying to accumulate more US dollars even though the US dollar index DXY is down 10% since the beginning of the year. I highly doubt any alternative coin is capable of replacing the US dollar someday. Bitcoin has a chance though.
Again not how this works. DXY is just a measurement against other currencies but mostly just the yen and euro. All this tells you is that likely both the yen and euro got stronger against the dollar. Dollar debasement is calculated with CPI. How much less goods and services you’ll receive for the same dollar
Right - how much is a one point drop in DXY worth?
DXY is almost 99. It was at 100 September of 2024.
We are entering the "fun zone" (under 100.00) The last 3 times this happened in the DXY, bitcoin saw outrageous upward movement to follow If this aligns with any rate drops later this year, look out
The DXY is not the same thing as inflation. It's being compared to other currencies, not to itself.
About -1% in the last 5 days (DXY), not really crashing on my terms.
War makes DXY go up, BTC go down. Also makes gas prices increase.
DXY crashing and BTC...also not doing well today. Weird.
DXY is coming down nicely. Get the rocket fuel ready!
Okay, I'll bite. Core aspects of your argument: >1) Bitcoin wealth can vanish Wealth measured in bitcoin can see a large drop in value. The largest dip seen by BTC was -85%, which was back in 2013. Recently, these drops become less intense as global adoption continues, with the most recent Liberation Day -28% drop, of which almost all assets have recovered from. >2) Bitcoin Could lose value in the time of a plane flight (~3 hours) All wealth fluctuates in price--even the most stable asset, the USD, still looks chaotic when you look at $DXY. Each person has their own risk tolerance, and each asset has their own beta. Stocks dropped 13% in a single hour during COVID-19. BTC sees 5% swings at least once weekly. However, generally the trend is up across all assets due to inflation--with some assets outperforming others. >3) Other assets are superior due to turbulence This is a the classic Beta vs Sharpe ratio. As in an investor, the idea is not to minimize risk, but to optimize risk in terms of reward. >4) Gold up my ass would give me pleasure I thinking holding gold would give me pleasure, too. I would do things differently and hold gold somewhere safer other than on your person, but you do you.
A currency loses value by inflation of its supply, not by the DXY which is just a comparison of the USD against a bunch of other currencies. The dollar lost a lot of its purchasing power over the past four years after QE and high inflation. When you're looking at FX, the dollar going down makes US exports more competitive and imports to the US less competitive. You don't necessarily want the strongest currency on the block.
You need to look at BTC.D , ETH/BTC Ratio, compare the supply&marketcap from past and today on alts and also the price it was in the begin of the bullmarket to now. eg. BTC in Jan 2023: 16650$, BTC in 2025 ATH: 110k $ \+660% raise. Doge in 2023 at lowest: 0.05$ Doge ATH since: 0.47$ \+940% That's are just 2 random examples. Next I take for example LINK the comparisson between 6 June 2021 from snapshot in coinmarketcap and present. 2021: Price: 27.55$ Marketcap: 11'874'992'855.91$ Circulating Supply: 431'009'554 LINK Today: Price: 14$ Marketcap: 9.22B Circulating Supply: 657'099'970.45 Link (+52.45% more than in 2021). Which means that if LINK have same marketcap as 2021, the value will not be 27$ but 18$, this due to the diluation of the new coins in circulation. Marketcap 2021 / Circulating Supply Today = Price. But all of these are also influenced by the value of the $, DXY. If the dollar goes down, it's normal to see prices going up, it's just the devaluation of the $ but it's not a real gain. There are so much data that people just don't look after but only dream of infinite pumps, like XRP at 100$ which it will be never a reality and these people are just delusional.
This is not value - DXY doesn’t measure inflation - you Bitcoin because of other reasons and it’s probably based not on education
The -9% DXY directly corresponded to the +10% single day jump in the S&P. Money was “created” not also by printing, but the belief that the global reserve currency of the USD “jumped” and everyone was richer. USD has a large impact on BTC and it did create more liquify to flow into BTC. Everything you said is correct. But the DXY drop created money. It’s both. If basically every other country wasn’t tied to the USD via T-bills, I’d agree with you. It’s not a zero sum.
This is misleading and has got very little to do with what you think it is. DXY is a relative measure of the USD strength against other currencies. Take the EUR and It gained against the USD. So should we all EURO then? Or do we GBP, or JPY? Same reason. This is not why we Bitcoin.
DXY weakening has historically been a strong tailwind for BTC movement. Global liquidity trends are lining up, but you're right that confirmation through volume and structure is key. No rush, just smart positioning as momentum builds.
If you're referring to the chart on Trading View, the data goes through a conversion from USD to the local currency. When the USD devalues vs. other currencies (DXY going down), it makes the global M2 appear to go up. Unless you're referring to just US M2.
The correlation between falling DXY and BTC price appreciation is undeniable, but attributing the current price action solely to macro factors overlooks on-chain metrics. The declining miner capitulation and increasing network activity suggest underlying strength, potentially mitigating the impact of a future DXY rebound. A nuanced approach considering both macro and micro indicators is crucial for accurate price prediction.
How does DXY dropping lead to an increase in M2 money supply? To my knowledge, it does not. Also I'm not talking just about right now it going up - the trend for the last several months has been up.
Isn't that just because the DXY had a big drop yesterday and $180bn came off the reverse repo facility?
With global liquidity increasing and the DXY weakening, Bitcoin could be gearing up for another rally. Lower dollar strength often pushes investors toward assets like Bitcoin. Still, I’d watch for confirmation through volume and price action before jumping in, since market shifts can be unpredictable and fast-moving.
Really appreciate the detailed macro take—especially the correlations between DXY, global liquidity, and BTC. That 75–85 day offset with liquidity is fascinating and does seem to align with current BTC price action. Also agree that the upcoming policy and fiscal moves (like US bond repackaging via stablecoins) could be a major liquidity unlock for crypto. Let’s see if this aligns with a breakout in Q3. Great insight!
Easy answer. You should have a bullish bias. 1. Whenever the DXY begins to trend down below 100 the crypto markets tend to flourish. The DXY has been trending down from 110 down to 98 over the past few months and looks like it will continue that trend. The 2017 and 2021 bullruns coincided with crazy rallies while the USD was in its weakened state. 2. Global liquidity. You've probably heard about global liquidity being talked about by a bunch of KOLs and the correlation between bitcoin and global liquidity is roughly 82-87% with a 75-85day offset. What this means is that bitcoin tends to follow global liquidity directionally. Global liquidity broke a new ATH recently and has continued trending up since. Global liquidity was in a consolidation period 75 days ago which is what bitcoin has been doing for the past week. Shortly after this consolidation period global liquidity has continued trending upwards since. 3. Tariff clarity. Slowly but surely the tariffs are being finalized and priced into the market. Once the uncertainty around tariffs are removed the flood gates will open. 4. The US Treasury is stepping in to buy 4 trillion in bonds due to decreased confidence in the US treasury market globally. This will help to help deal with the 37trillion in debt that needs to be refinanced. Along with SLR exemptions for Fannie and Freddie this will aim to result in strengthening the bond market. 5. Tether/circle stable coins minting. Created on the ethereum blockchain and minted by tether and circle buying US bonds and creating digital USD on the blockchain. This is a way for the US to repackage their bonds in a more appealing way for global adoption. 6. Crypto positive trump admin. They are very pro crypto partly because of stablecoins and partly because they understand the value in investing in a direct hedge against inflation/money printing. Not only will the treasury print more money to finance the US debt but they will be heavily invested in the direct hedge against inflation resulting in a "win win" situation. Might not all be entirely correct this is just how I've interpreted the macro/TA of the financial markets currently. DYOR NFA
I'll admit that global liquidity / M2 narrative isn't playing out like I thought it would. I guess it was just the inverse DXY after all.
So far the DXY and 10-yr yield are moving more to the "risk off" side since the news came out.
That explains why the DXY just popped.
Its stupid to sell now when global liquidity is pumping like crazy,DXY keeps falling,we have been in consolidation/dip for last 6 months.. Also QT is probably ending in next 90 days,and rates cuts are coming. Honestly,i wouldnt sell before we see QE and rates below 2%.. Sell in greed,not fear
DXY just keeps tumbling down. Tariff scare was barely a blip. Imagine holding cash right now.
DXY was dumping hard last night. Trump had to tweet something. That worked for like 15 minutes, then it went back to dumping.
Just fyi, not fud, but if you want to adjust for both inflation and relative dollar value, the symbol in tradingview is CRYPTO:BTCUSD*(TVC:DXY/99.642)*(FRED:CUUR0000SA0R/31.2) Change the 99.642 to whatever DXY is today, and the 31.2 to whatever the cpi is. This important, IMHO, bc the actual adjusted ath is about 121,340.
You may find the DXY interesting, it measures USD vs a basket of global currencies. Just remember that USD can remain flat on this graph and still inflate, if the others inflate at the same rate.
DXY dollar index is down 10% since the previous ATH
Thanks for telling us that you don't know that CPI and DXY are not the same thing.
The Stock Market today was teetering because of the lack of demand in the auction of U.S Treasury Notes led to a spike in yields to try to entice buyers. I've always been against Gold but listening to Ray Dalio in February, I finally started buying Gold this year. And of course, I hold BTC. What he said in February is very relevant to what happened today, what is happening to the DXY (measure of U.S dollar against other relevant currencies) and the Bond Market. > The goverment interest rate is the backbone of all markets. Stock market, bond market, all borrowing. All lending everything. > Inflation, think of the number 3%. 3% of GDP. We have a projected deficit of 7.5% of GDP. That means all those bonds have to be sold and because of the supply demand imbalance...when I calculate the buyers of the bonds, there will not be enough buyers, and it could be worse in this dynamic because those who own bonds could also sell them when that happens there is a tremendous supply demand imbalance, then we have big problems. > Think about the value of debt and money, when debt is money. > Then it's about the supply/demand of debt. That will be the driver. If you have a supply demand problem, and you do and you will, what does the government do about that? If they don't provide the buying, then interest rates go up. That has a bad effect on everything. > We don't think enough about what is alternative money. Debt is money. When you're holding debt, you're holding the promise to get money. When you hold money, you're essentially holding it in debt. That is our biggest risk. The money part of our risk > **So what is your alternative money. Do you have an alternative money? Yes, Gold, Bitcoin is alternative money. Think about debt and money when debt is money. Throughout history it's always the interest rate you get that is temptation and is it enough to deal with the supply demand problem?** https://youtu.be/bXFRAXuEi_E?t=122
The Stock Market today was teetering because of the lack of demand in the auction of U.S Treasury Notes led to a spike in yields to try to entice buyers. I've always been against Gold but listening to Ray Dalio in February, I finally started buying Gold this year. And of course, I hold BTC. What he said in February is very relevant to what happened today, what is happening to the DXY (measure of U.S dollar against other relevant currencies) and the Bond Market. > The goverment interest rate is the backbone of all markets. Stock market, bond market, all borrowing. All lending everything. > Inflation, think of the number 3%. 3% of GDP. We have a projected deficit of 7.5% of GDP. That means all those bonds have to be sold and because of the supply demand imbalance...when I calculate the buyers of the bonds, there will not be enough buyers, and it could be worse in this dynamic because those who own bonds could also sell them when that happens there is a tremendous supply demand imbalance, then we have big problems. > Think about the value of debt and money, when debt is money. > Then it's about the supply/demand of debt. That will be the driver. If you have a supply demand problem, and you do and you will, what does the government do about that? If they don't provide the buying, then interest rates go up. That has a bad effect on everything. > We don't think enough about what is alternative money. Debt is money. When you're holding debt, you're holding the promise to get money. When you hold money, you're essentially holding it in debt. That is our biggest risk. The money part of our risk > **So what is your alternative money. Do you have an alternative money? Yes, Gold, Bitcoin is alternative money. Think about debt and money when debt is money. Throughout history it's always the interest rate you get that is temptation and is it enough to deal with the supply demand problem?** https://youtu.be/bXFRAXuEi_E?t=122
The Stock Market today was teetering because of the lack of demand in the auction of U.S Treasury Notes led to a spike in yields to try to entice buyers. I've always been against Gold but listening to Ray Dalio in February, I finally started buying Gold this year. And of course, I hold BTC. What he said in February is very relevant to what happened today, what is happening to the DXY (measure of U.S dollar against other relevant currencies) and the Bond Market. > The goverment interest rate is the backbone of all markets. Stock market, bond market, all borrowing. All lending everything. > Inflation, think of the number 3%. 3% of GDP. We have a projected deficit of 7.5% of GDP. That means all those bonds have to be sold and because of the supply demand imbalance...when I calculate the buyers of the bonds, there will not be enough buyers, and it could be worse in this dynamic because those who own bonds could also sell them when that happens there is a tremendous supply demand imbalance, then we have big problems. > Think about the value of debt and money, when debt is money. > Then it's about the supply/demand of debt. That will be the driver. If you have a supply demand problem, and you do and you will, what does the government do about that? If they don't provide the buying, then interest rates go up. That has a bad effect on everything. > We don't think enough about what is alternative money. Debt is money. When you're holding debt, you're holding the promise to get money. When you hold money, you're essentially holding it in debt. That is our biggest risk. The money part of our risk > So what is your alternative money. Do you have an alternative money? Yes, Gold, Bitcoin is alternative money. Think about debt and money when debt is money. Throughout history it's always the interest rate you get that is temptation and is it enough to deal with the supply demand problem? https://youtu.be/bXFRAXuEi_E?t=122
The 20 yr US bond auction went terribly and a reflection of fat donny's terrible foreign and economic policy. DXY dropped a little as did the US stock market. BTC hit a new ATH while that happened. I think USD is unraveling as global reserve and BTC is taking its place.
Compared to other currencies (aka the DXY), yes. In terms of purchasing power? Absofuckinglutely not. You need $135 2025 dollars to buy what $100 got you in 2016. The dollar has lost half of its value since 1995 and the trajectory is not improving.
It’s a genuine question. [The USD is stronger than it’s been for the majority of the last 50 years.](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?utm_source=iosapp&utm_medium=share) Your graph showing the last 5 years against a random currency doesn’t really sway me. Sorry.
Can someone explain this to me? The DXY is at the same level as it was in 1972, and it’s been oscillating up and down ever since then. If anything, it’s spent more time below this level than above. Am I missing something?
All time low? DXY is exactly where it was in September.
DXY down because of the credit downgrade like I said
Kind reminder that the DXY lost like 8% since the last Bitcoin ATH. So $105,000 then is worth about $114,000 now.
can't be that bad, DXY bottomed in 2021 at the heights of the bull market and then accelerated upwards when bitcoin flipped bearish
Got it. Correct. U.S. CoL didn’t go up just because USD is down on the DXY. These are tangible gains if one sells.
Does help that the DXY is down 10%. The 105k btc is really the 95k btc of January..
Ironically it seems that when the US-China trade progress was announced, the DXY shot up into the "risk-off" category and the crypto rally completely sputtered. Maybe it's just a coincidence or maybe all that global M2 money is going to flow into stonks?
Then the DXY should drop, causing BTC to pump I would think
It doesn’t matter… and once they understand that, then they buy… $500k $5mm, if you need to move $1.8mm USD and buy a house in AUD, it doesn’t matter what the price is, you’re buying the transaction… no one is saving in USD and looking up the DXY ticker. They’re just saving their money
Wow the DXY really rallied on that trade deal news. Looks like global liquidity is finally rolling over too. Probably have another month of crypto pump left until a break.