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Quite the rally in the DXY and the 10yr bond yields. The problem with the underlying arguments for BTC is that they're not always true. The dollar isn't collapsing, there isn't massive money printing, budget deficits aren't inflated away, etc. If you're a long-term holder you have to wager what the fundamentals of the economy will look like far into the future. And that's not as easy as a task as the dollar-doomers would have you believe.
It’s more the dollar was in a huge bubble last winter. Google the DXY chart and pull out a couple years and you can see what’s really going on with the dollar. Don’t let the gold bugs fool you on what’s happening with the dollar, they’re down 10% so far and panicing.
I just watch the DXY 1-min chart and can tell from that how it went.
Come back with that when you can cite an actual *reason* that BTC/Crypto would retrace 70%+ in a vacuum, while the Stock/Equity markets are still greenlit for favorable conditions of loose monetary policy and lowering rate cuts... that cute chart doesn't cut it lmao. Gold sure as hell didn't retreat for a decade simply because "it had a good run, was fun while it lasted." Gold began to fall around 2011-onwards because the USD DXY was strengthening, economic outlook was improving after the '08 Greater Financial Crisis, and Quantitative Easing was tapering-off as the U.S.'s recovery was well underway. Gold is a hedge against not only inflation, but also global economic uncertainty.
This level of coping is insane, BTC has been at this price last year in December as well. Pick any asset, stock or index fund and let's compare. None has performed this poorly. Not even mentioning that DXY was 110 at the start of the year and it's now under 100. The USD has lost more than 10% of its value, where can I see that reflected in BTC's price?
With high interest rates and slow grinding profits from BTC, I’d not expect it. There are many things that will need to happen to align with people cashing BTC profits out into sketchier coins. Interest rates much lower, BTC huge fast pump then holding price for an extended period of time, hype cycle with crypto making popular news, BTC.D and DXY impulsive bearish price moves. Until the winds start to change, it’s okay to be honest.
Watch currency and the DXY and trade real futures off that. I focus on true currency in futures market. Started with wheat futures then went to silver futures an then stuck with currency.
2017. You have to go back to 2017. Thats the point. BTC dont look nearly as good recent years. Maybe sell 50% GLD Tuesday and rest by Wednesday midday. Buy the dip Thursday if VMBS and DXY show dollar weaken. If dollar strengthens, be hella careful of GLD multi year drop. Compare SLM 2006-08 and now.
Well, I saw it coming. I had this drop top mind for the past couple months AND I told people to watch out for it. I pegged it to DXY strength vs BTC dominance vs the BTC chart. The charts showed their hand. I was posting about it on Reddit, I was in subs and DMs trying to help people avoid it and what did I get for it? Ridiculed, name called, and ignored and when that wasn't enough, Reddit kicked me off subs entirely for trying to give folks a heads up. I told my buddy to sell his 10k in Fartcoin at $1.18 which is trying to breakdown past .36 now. Oof. Thing is- I don't invest or trade via vibes. I chart. I document. I look at flows. I track sentiment. I look at the entire macro geo-political and economic environments. I reason from all angles. And I have been doing it for a while. So this is an I told you so of sorts, but not the kind thrown out there to feed my ego. You are all learning the exact same way I did. By getting screwed by the markets and the evil that drives them, you are receiving an important lesson: these markets are all smoke and mirrors - you need multiple charts and multiple points of confluence to accurately gage the direction and you need to be zoomed out looking at macro views first. Those give away the support and resistance levels you need to be aware of - even when these charts are in new price discovery. Learn how to contextualize all of that data and incorporate correct size and risk management and you won't get burned like this again.
What’s insane is like—well, where else is your money safe? CASH? No, $DXY down >12% and the USD getting further devalued. EQUITIES? This WAS the move if you believed in U.S. Capitalism and engineering/innovation. Not anymore. CRYPTO? This ALSO WAS the move given policies, public bullishness, insider support (Sacks, Barron, etc.) Not any more… GOLD? This is ironically the place where you go when you don’t believe or trust in the administration. Apparently, DJT is either retarded, immoral and extremely greedy, or is acting on behalf of those who benefit from destabilization.
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I keep refreshing the news but not seeing anything that triggered the market-wide dump? Even the DXY dumped?
I would wait and stack up a lot of cash preparing to unload when it retests 69k ATH. I know I’ll get downvoted because the DXY has been in free fall, but BTC has never failed to retest a previous ATH and confirm it as support. Somehow someway the MM will crash us in the middle of the night on a low volume weekend to 69K before we absolute moonshot to 200K and beyond….maybe I’m just hopeful….but if you buy now you’re okay too in the long run because 126k won’t be the top.
Crazy to think the DXY could break over 100 again. Markets are probably tempering their rate cut expectations.
People overleverage themselves thinking the only way to make money with 22 million different coins. Any resistance and a little downside action is just the liquidity flush. It will keep going untill the gamblers are out of money. Also. If DXY breakout happens (around 10 november latest) expect NO altseason. Everything goes down. Gold, bitcoin, altcoins. Then again. Am bullish for this month. But not Q4.
More than that actually, yeah! Gold being up almost $400 in a month is something like $2.75 Trillion in Mcap. Honestly pretty unprecedented. Unless the buyers know something everyone else doesn't though, it's still very overblown. With U.S. inflation teetering around 3-3.5% and the DXY down 11% this year, it still doesn't explain a 54% rise in Gold's value for the year. People are just front-running the actual worst case scenarios for it, and there will be a crazy pullback if/when things stabilize.
Crypto goes up sometimes, and down sometimes, you can't explain that! You're going to love hearing about this thing called the DXY, where even currency goes up & down against one another.
It’s the DXY price since January. It’s down 11% since then. What they fail to point out is it’s only down 4% in the last year and actually up 5% from 5 years ago.
Its a bit more complicated than just taking BTC increase which is measured relative to the dollar and divided by the percentage decrease of DXY which is the value of the dollar index against 6 different foreign currencies. Those currencies themselves are also devaluing.
Gold or the $DXY, to name a couple
Look at the dollar index, DXY, it looks like we're soon bottoming the devaluation in comparisson with other currencies and I do expect a reversal starting from 2026 so it's a double win if you live in Euro zone and Dollar start valuing more than EUR. Right now is good to buy USD with EUR.
The DXY is up 5% in the last 5 years. Currencies fluctuate. In 2000 I got $2 for £1 now I get $1.35 for £1.
The DXY looks like its about to fall off a cliff and head into a bear market reminiscient of 2008. If that happens I dont see Bitcoin having its typical bear market anytime soon.
It is only consequential. US has a debt problem - that realization is now going around the globe. Next step in the thought process is "How are they going to solve that problem?" Devaluation of the USD is the answer & inflation hedges protect against that. Need evidence? Look at the DXY trend YtD or even just the last 5 days. Look at gold. Soon BTC will be at ATH as well again.
No, wrong thing! This is the same thing as switching from Bitcoin to the USD when the DXY spikes up. When the price is depressed relative to the other asset, that’s when you want to buy lots and wait.
crypto's perceived value is not tied to USD. if DXY drops significantly, all else being equal, overall crypto MC, expressed in USD, ought to rise. in short, it's not something that worries me. an outright USD crisis brought about by the US defaulting on its debt, for example, is obviously a different story.
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GDP came in much better than expected and the market is interpreting that (probably falsely) as the US economy being on fire. Rate cut chances going down, DXY going up and bond yields rising. All of this is bad for risk assets. I suspect the next jobs report will smack people's faces back into reality though.
DXY up, 10-yr up, rate cut probabilities down... not exactly the best setup for risk assets.
Because headlines ≠ order flow. • Gross ≠ net. $1.47B of buys tells you nothing about total sells. Price moves on the net imbalance at the margin. • OTC + internalization. Big tickets often clear OTC or via market makers who hedge on-perp/spot over hours or days. Minimal immediate chart impact. • Derivs dominate. Perp funding/OI swings can steamroll spot. If leverage is skewed long, even bullish headlines get faded as dealers/CTAs sell into it. • Liquidity matters. If depth is thin, one decent sell wall or a cascade of stops outweighs a few block prints. • “Buys” ≠ executed buys. These could be allocations, mandates, or AUM shifts announced today, partially filled earlier, or dollar-costed over time. • News = liquidity. Smart money often distributes into good news (use green to sell), then rebids lower. • Macro crosswinds. Strong DXY / higher yields / risk-off = headwind, so you need persistent inflows to push price up, not just one morning’s tickets. TL;DR: Price is set at the margin by net flow in the derivatives-driven market, not by the size of bullish headlines. Big buyers can be OTC, hedged, or staggered—meanwhile sellers, leverage and macro can still push spot down.
Anyone else surprised DXY gained almost a full percentage point since FOMC. Aren't rate cuts supposed to weaken the currency?
GME ETH is one of my favorites Also Andy 0x68 and Wolf 0x67 Good beta exposure to ETH, you can run multiples if we get the right conditions which so far with QE on the horizon and the DXY starting to nuke they should run hard. Great RR imo
DXY recovered quickly & now stands higher than before the cut & speech.
Interesting that DXY was way stronger during our mini alt season last December
DXY looks like on the verge of breaking below a multi year trendline… could be nothing.
DXY looks like on the verge of breaking below a multi year trendline… could be nothing.
> Bitcoin rallies into FOMC > 25bps rate cut, as expected > volatility.exe > Powell says "good afternoon" > markets tank, sell the news > we're so back → it's so over > altcoins flush, late longs punished > bleed into end of September > uno reverse October, bullish Q4 > more rate cuts, Fed dovish pivot > DXY continues to tank > equities run higher, crypto follows > we all get girlfriends > we all sell the pico top > we all retire and ride into the sunset
I'm surprised to see just how much the DXY is dumping today. Somebody got a bug in the FOMC meeting room?
>DXY goes through the roof. The opposite should happen. lower U.S. interest rates make dollar-denominated assets less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher returns, reducing demand for the dollar and consequently causing its value to fall against other major currencies.
DXY is taking a massive shit. Weak ass US dollar, *should* mean BTC goes up w/ precious metals.
My prediction for wednesday. 25bp cut as labor market is fucked. Hawkish tone because of inflation and tariff uncertainty. "We will monitor the data closely wether or not more cuts can come in the future". Market does a big poopoo because it signals the economy is weak. DXY goes through the roof. Sue me.
Youre right, DXY down, GLI up, equities at ATHs, gold at ATHs. Rate cuts being priced in. Cpi and ppi came in cool while the job market is looking rough. Bonds are coming down, sol, xrp and sui etf all launching this year. Tommy Lee advocating for ethereum, WLFI built on solana will definitely result in a big solana pp, iso 20022 will help fuel hbar, xlm, xrp, Ada, link etc. As long as youre holding something its bound to go up atp
The (worse than expected) annual job revisions report seemed to have the opposite effect than I thought it would, with the DXY spiking.
Perfect summary of every TA ever. In all seriousness, this is why macro > micro-TA right now All those signals are conflicting because the real drivers are off-chain: ETF inflows/outflows, the DXY, and Fed policy expectations. The chart won't resolve until macro does.
Hmm, good question! Honestly, I think the most reliable approach is combining multiple indicators rather than just relying on one thing... So like, technical stuff - price action, volume, moving averages, RSI - these give you the immediate vibe of what's happening. But then you've also got market structure... are we making higher highs? Breaking support? That kind of tells you the bigger picture, you know? Oh and sentiment indicators are huge imo. Fear & Greed Index, funding rates, even just scrolling through crypto Twitter lol. Sometimes when everyone's screaming doom, that's actually when things bounce. You mentioned the S&P correlation - yeah that's become way more important lately. Crypto moves with traditional markets now, especially when there's macro stuff happening. DXY, bond yields, Fed meetings... it all matters. For crypto specifically though, on-chain metrics can be pretty telling - like are whales accumulating? Exchange inflows/outflows? Sometimes the fundamentals are strong even when price action looks ugly. Oh btw, I've been checking prediction markets more lately too - like Polymarket or Kalshi or Fliq. Sometimes they price in events before the actual markets react. Pretty interesting way to gauge what smart money thinks about upcoming catalysts. The annoying thing is markets can stay stupid longer than you think they should lol. I've learned to wait for confirmation from at least 2-3 different types of signals before I'm really confident about direction. What about you? Do you lean more technical or fundamental when you're trying to read the market?
The Federal reserve hasn't even cut rates how are people calling end of the cycle now 😂 the last 9 months BTC has practically chopped sideways. We are still under December 2024 high DXY adjusted
That’s true, equities and BTC often move hand in hand when liquidity shifts. 📈 But the DXY is like the “meta signal” — it drives both stocks and crypto. When the dollar sucks in liquidity, everything else feels it.
I think the US stock market has bigger correlation to BTC price, rather than the DXY
Alright, with that logic I do understand I have to use simple terms in order for you to understand. Personal Finance 101, in High School? The cash didnt go anywhere, but wasnt worth the same after the bubble. How so? Gold however was rising (who would have thought). Every bond and share went down, and therefore making that cash you had in your mattress less valuable. And if you want to discuss bitcoin since covid; it has rissen from about 9k to about 109k (without mentiouning peeks). DXY on the other half is down from 98k at the start of covid to 97k today. Are you still a hater? Discuss this with your teacher on monday, and let me know what he/she says.
Yeah, DXY matters — but tbh this cycle feels different. ETF flows + big players stacking BTC might drive price more than the dollar itself.
DXY dumping on rumors Lisa Cook got fired. But I haven't found anything official.
The catalyst was probably DXY suddenly mooning. Then long got liquidated creating a cascade effect,
Don’t forget the DXY. God candle today
The 4 year cycle is not just a stonewall pattern based on calendars. It has typically followed global liquidity and dollar strength (DXY), which just so happen to have operated in roughly 4 year cycles since the financial crisis. And given what we are seeing now it would suggest that we should not expect to see things play out exactly as they have in the past
Jpow spoke today and the market realized it overreacted this past week. Also DXY is down and probably rotating out to rek leveraged shorts
I’m looking at weekly’s and I’m not especially excited nor worried… Go look at the charts… everything is down, crypto, stocks, bonds, even the DXY is down and XAU is just neutral… There’s a lot happening with high unemployment and now higher inflation. idk exactly what the short term holds. I’m not about to take a taxable hit on a hunch and I’m super long term invested anyway
I see a sell off in bonds and a rising DXY and no real big drama in stocks. To me it suggests further uncertainty in US fiscal policy, a move into cash/ t-bills. Thats about it. Im not a short term trader, I suck at it. I do the boring, long term thing. So BTC n chill, I still see more upsides to BTC from here and im not rushed.
PPI Came in hotter than expected. Concerns for no drop in rates. Bonds selling off, DXY on the rise.
BC BTC is the big mover in the crypto-verse... BTC tends to move inverse to DXY. DXY. Spiked on higher PPI. Bonds are selling off, Those players appear to be going cash and stocks.
DXY actually went up on PPI news.
Gold rallies during market downturns and copper rallies during economic upswings. When copper is moving higher, DXY is usually headed lower and risk assets rise. For now, BTC is still treated as a risk asset.
>That's impossible, by definition other currencies are worth less relative to the dollar if the DXY goes up. Yeah I wasn't quite sure how else to word it. DXY is a relative-strength index, but I guess I meant more in terms of U.S. policies strengthening the dollar rather than something that would directly harm other currencies in doing so. An example would be a complete trade embargo on another Nation.
>If the U.S. figures out how to correct that and strengthen it again It's actually good for the US in many ways if the dollar isn't *too* strong. Exports become more competitive, it's better for US-based multinational corporations, it's better for the tourism industry, and it helps with the trade deficit among other things. The main bad thing is import costs rise. Right now, it's a bit higher than the historical average. I wouldn't mind the DXY coming down to the low-mid 90s, that's probably a good place to be.
DXY dumping is what's inspiring me to take profits from BTC/ETH's run up, as the USD devalues compared to the Euro and other currencies. If the U.S. figures out how to correct that and strengthen it again, in a way that doesn't directly end up devaluing its currency competition, BTC/ETH may fall more in-line with their EUR-counterpart valuations.
DXY keeps dumping. Translation: SEND IT!
DXY crashing and rate cuts seem to be the perfect storm for alt to rip Reckon BTC will run first like it usually does? Kinda cuked myself by defensively swapping alts to BTC 2 weeks ago
its fun bc you and I took the same thought journey...(Also sleep deprived)... If I woke up tomorrow morning and the DXY was at 10, id have much bigger worries than BTC, but I still wouldn't sell and Id assume coinbase would be down.
Man, if the DXY slips under 97.7 we could be in for some fun afternoons around the daily...
If the DXY goes down, BTC should go up
I think the DXY is showing an uptrend so idk could just be ETH demand rising
Why did the DXY fall off a cliff 5 mins ago? Somebody tweet something?
There is a notable correlation. But the halvings is not the cause of the 4 year cycle. There are many other stronger correlations if you.want to speculate on mid range trends. Such as inverse BTC/DXY and BTC/M2. Even BTC/SP500 is getting correlated in the recent years but I would not read too much into that just yet. Also this cycle deviates significantly from the previous. And that is not only seen in Bitcoin value.
Powell pulled back on the idea of a rate cut when he spoke on Wednesday, that's why the market tanked and the DXY soared and the CME forecast went down. Don't forget the FOMC had access the the jobs data before the meeting. The Fed is not looking at this the way you and I are.
DXY dumping again on more news: Fed governor Andrea Kugler, whose term was set to end in January, has resigned effective August 8. So Trump will have a new appointment before the September FOMC meeting.
The S&P500 has been down 5 days in a row, down over 2% in that time. Similar to bitcoin. Hawkish comments from the Fed chair are likely driving the move. Bitcoin isn't going down, the dollar is going up, see the DXY chart for dollar buying power relative to other currencies. The fact that bitcoin isn't down 3x SPY is another good sign on the road from "risk on" triple-levered asset, to store of value. We're still early.
DXY is rallying due to Fed rate hold and tariffs about to hit
XRP chart is ripe for a rug pull with DXY climbing, BTC falling + BTC dominance climbing.
Won't be less volatile til the market cap of bitcoin is closer to gold. Already moves similarly to gold and global liquidity but with more volatility. Gold is 10x the market cap. More money required to move the market mean less volatility. As for a cycle top. Don't have a crystal ball but still have 50ish days of a global liquidity uptrend and a DXY downtrend to price in. If these show any sign of a big reversal then I'd start getting ready to exit out of 90% of positions. If this is just a bounce and continues the trends. We may see rate cuts lining up with this to help ease monetary conditions further. This would mean the show will go on and continue through 2026. Depends how long macro data continues to be bullish.
Go look up the DXY... I bought the dip, HBU?
DXY with a nice breakout. Going to put pressure on risk assets.
Naaaa, nobody needs to be told what money is. How it operates behind the scenes and how it works beyond just transactions is a different thing! Mike Maloney is a great plug for the history of it THE MONEY MASTERS, great historical video Something that demonstrates Fiat without backing is not real money... ... But generally people look at money as not an investment. But what you spend to get products and services And I think this was more true when we were getting around 0% for savings, still true in Banks but with online banks and money market funds we can get around 4% now... Then money becomes more of an investment when you can beat the inflation rate at least... Not to mention, figuring out foreign exchange rates and DXY...
Don't listen to amateurs, use this: [https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals](https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals) Pros use data driven approaches and confirm confluence with fundamentals and important news; in this line of thought I also think that some underrated tools is using other (macroeconomic) symbols, namely, $DXY, $SPY, $CPC, $BTCEUR, $TOTAL; why? Because: \- $DXY; when dollar goes up, $BTC goes down, thus when dollar goes down $BTC goes up and the intensity of this movement is directly proportional to $DXY and $BTCDOM \- $SPY; $BTC is significantly correlated to the american market, when $SPY goes up, $BTC typically goes up and viceversa \- $CPC; since $BTC is significantly correlated to the american market, you can use the total put call ratio to gauge the reversals; when $CPC tops, $BTC bottoms, and when $CPC bottoms, $BTC tops; we haven't bottomed out $CPC yet... \- $BTCEUR; this is a more realistic view of $BTC price action without dollar fluctuations, so movements here tend to show the actual picture of $BTC value \- $TOTAL; same approach as above, but encompassing the whole crypto picture; paired with $CPC this will allow you to determine wether we've reached a local top in $BTC or an actual $TOP in the whole crypto market Be mindful that you can always swing short too, so instead of buying you can also try to go short... I don't think it is time to short yet...
DXY — U.S. Dollar Index Chart — TradingView https://share.google/W9WOLGyYJBJnfqMJX Rapidly losing value... Lol. Looks like totally standard fluctuation historically.
That last little line down (2025) is the "collapsing" Reddit is obsessed about. Lol, zoom out and get a freaking grip. DXY — U.S. Dollar Index Chart — TradingView https://share.google/W9WOLGyYJBJnfqMJX
It means the DXY is at 69 and inflation spikes to 420
I'll give two answers. For most people? Lump sum. If you're in the 99.9% who aren't deep in markets every day, just buy and hold. As they say, time in the market beats timing the market. This is anyone who hasn't personally built winning trades for a living with a team for many years. Easy game. For experienced professional traders at major shops? Lump sum. I see some signs that suggest bitcoin might be a little warm at this price, but not so much I want to time it and def not a FOMO over-heated froth. Price is a bit above cost of production, front page memes show some signs of excitement, and it's hard to know how much demand has been pulled forward by treasury companies. My biggest fear is that treasury companies get themselves over-extended. But as a long-term entry I'm happy here, I've lump sum'd recently myself. Demand catalysts are everywhere (see treasury companies, strategic reserves, US admin and family betting big on bitcoin). Fiat markets are flashing major warning signs (see DXY, US treasuries, government debt loads), while crisis correlations with bitcoin have broken down many times this year (see liberation day, threats to fire Powell). I don't see this as the time to get fancy, especially since tradfi assets look so weak themselves, but if you're a rich person on a bitcoin standard and wanted to sell say 1-year+ covered calls on 25% of your position to de-risk a bit, I could get behind that.
Took you this long? What was your first guess? When he shilled ADA and scammed his followers? Or when he made a big show about investing Bitcoin and flipped the reserve bill? Or when his son is actively shilling coins and takes credit when the price goes up and barely returns to local ATH? Or when Trump rugpulled his own coin? Or when he’s actively destroying the DXY to speedrun a USD crash and fluff up BTC value?
Meh, the R2 of Bitcoin to DXY is like -.25 or something. Good enough to make a snide remark IMHO
There seems to be only one answer in this thread, which is diversification. It's a great answer, the only free lunch in investing. But it's ironic that few have calculated the efficient frontier of their investments. When you look at these analyses, they almost always limit how much of the portfolio can be bitcoin, or lower assumptions about future bitcoin returns, or both. It might be reasonable to lower expectations for future bitcoin returns, but if we're going there, why not also consider the future expected returns of stocks and bonds? Because at outrageous PEs and bond rates lowered by QE, the future looks bleak for these assets to me. That's why I only own bitcoin, because I see that: \- tradfi is massively under-allocated to bitcoin. Trillions needs to be bought to come into line with even the most conservative efficient frontier tradfi models \- bonds are over-valued by a LOT. Lending money to the US gov at 5% for 30 years is insane. That barely keeps up with inflation if it keeps up at all, which means they are priced for perfection despite the obvious warning signs. \- stocks have insanely high PEs historically despite facing unprecedented disruption risk from AI, not to mention the demographic overhang of the boomers moving into retirement and switching from price-insensitive buying to price-insensitive selling. There's also the risk of foreign investors pulling funds due to dollar under performance, since they measure returns in their local currency (see DXY recent performance) If there is a tradfi crisis and I start seeing things priced in bitcoin that make some sense to me, I will diversify. Until then, no thanks, just bitcoin for me. My mind has value to yield buying power, that's my portfolio diversification.
The DXY was wayyy lower than this through most of the 2000's, and even up until the pandemic ended. Nothing crazy happening here.
I can tell your DXY quotes are delayed because we're well down to 97.7 live.
This sudden pump is because the USD is just dying before our very eyes lol. The USD DXY just dropped from 98.85 to 98.4 in barely half an hour. That's why Gold and BTC immediately shot up in the same timeframe. People are shedding themselves of the dollar and getting into a currency/asset that's more stable globally.
Damn, the Dollar (DXY) just got obliterated in the last hour, 125k incoming?
The DXY just cratered in the last 15 minutes. Anybody hear anything?