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Post is by: Environmental_Bat399 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1su7beh/what_tools_do_systematic_crypto_traders_actually/ I've been building trading bots for a while and wanted to share what my current stack looks like — curious what others are using. **Price data**: Binance API (free, fast, reliable). Hard to beat for real-time candles and order book. **On-chain**: Honestly skipping the expensive stuff (Glassnode $800+/mo, Nansen $150/mo). For most systematic strategies, on-chain data adds noise more than signal unless you're doing whale-tracking specifically. **Sentiment**: Fear & Greed index + funding rates. These two alone capture most of the crowd positioning signal. **Regime classification**: This is the one I think most people are missing. Knowing whether you're in a bull, bear, or chop market *before* your strategy runs changes everything. An EMA crossover that prints in a trend gets destroyed in a range. I built an API for this — [Regime](https://getregime.com) — that runs 10 signals (SMA cross, funding, F&G, dominance, stablecoin flows, volume, volatility, liquidations, DXY) and outputs bull/bear/chop with a confidence score. Updated every 5 minutes. Try it yourself: curl -s https://getregime.com/api/v1/market/regime | jq Free tier gives you BTC + ETH with 500 calls/day. Pro is $49/mo for all 20 assets + real-time + signal breakdowns. **Execution**: Custom bots on Node.js. I've also built a [Freqtrade integration](https://getregime.com/freqtrade) for anyone using that. What does your stack look like? Especially curious about what people use for regime/market-state classification — most solutions I've seen are either too simple (just RSI) or too expensive (Glassnode + custom analytics). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Feels a bit overfit tbh. You’re mixing macro (Hormuz, oil, DXY) with a super tight short-term trade plan. If this was really a macro-driven move, it wouldn’t depend on a $1–2k range and a specific entry window. BTC holding here is interesting, but that alone isn’t “institutional support” — it can just as easily be a range before the next move. Right now it looks more like compression under resistance than a clear long setup.
Post is by: Disastrous-Prune-529 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1skmamr/i_built_a_macro_scoring_system_that_outputs_a/ For the past few months I've been building a system that tries to answer one question: *what is the macro environment actually saying about BTC right now?* Not vibes. Not Twitter. A deterministic score. **How it works:** The system pulls data across 6 categories and weights them into a final score from 0 (strongly bearish) to 100 (strongly bullish): * **Inflation / Economy** — CPI trend, real rates, recession signals * **Fed Policy** — rate trajectory, liquidity conditions, balance sheet * **DXY** — dollar strength as a BTC headwind/tailwind * **Risk Sentiment** — equities, credit spreads, fear indicators * **Liquidity** — global M2, financial conditions index * **Bitcoin-specific** — on-chain signals, dominance, funding rates Each category produces its own sub-score. The final verdict also includes a confidence level and the key signals driving it. **What I deliberately avoided:** Letting an LLM decide the output. The scoring logic is rules-based and auditable. LLMs are only used in one place — classifying macro headline sentiment — and even that feeds into the score as a minor weight, not a judgement call. **Current output looks like:** Score: 67/100 Bias: Moderately Bullish Confidence: High Key drivers: Softening DXY, M2 expansion resuming, Fed pause confirmed Headwinds: Elevated real rates, risk-off equity positioning Supports current / weekly / monthly timeframes and stores snapshots so you can audit past calls. Still in late-stage development. If this sounds useful to you — whether you're a trader, running a small fund, or writing a newsletter — I'm looking for a handful of people to try it and give honest feedback. Drop a comment or DM if interested. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
to be fair, the dollar in your pocket changes value constantly…. you’ve just chosen to ignore it. The chart on trading view is DXY. Everything reacts to the market…. literally
Wrong. the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot. Venezuela in January -> Iran in February. Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days. Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance. The oil thesis was the obvious layer. However, when you zoom out & view the last four years as a single sequence rather than isolated geopolitical events, the architecture of the grander US plan becomes visible. 1st was Europe, which laid the groundwork. The Ukraine conflict provided the justification for sanctions that collapsed Russian pipeline gas from 150 billion cubic meters to 40. Then Nordstream was destroyed, which rewired the entire European energy system permanently. The US went from supplying 28% of Europe's LNG in 2021 to 58% by 2025, exporting a record 111 million MTs, the 1st country in history to break 100 MT. Europe was transformed from a customer with options into a captive market now purchasing its survival in USD. 2nd was Syria. The fall of Assad severed the critical node connecting China's Belt & Road Initiative to the Mediterranean. The trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq & Syria, designed to bypass Western maritime chokepoints, was completely destroyed. This isolated Iran geographically & cleared the path for what came next. 3rd was Venezuela. In January the US effectively took control of the world's largest heavy crude reserves. The US Gulf Coast has the most advanced refining complex on earth, specifically built for heavy sour crude. Phillips 66, Valero & the rest are now positioned to process hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan crude daily. The US captured a massive strategic reserve & solidified its position as the dominant exporter of refined petroleum products, an industry worth $110 billion in 2025 alone. Venezuela & Iran were the two major oil supply channels that existed outside the dollar system. Both produce heavy crude sold primarily to China & evaded US financial supervision. Both now being neutralized within 90 days, which leads us to.. 4th is Iran & the Middle East energy shock. Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir. Iran retaliated against Qatar's Ras Laffan, the single largest LNG facility on earth, responsible for a fifth of global supply. QatarEnergy's own assessment is that 17% of export capacity is gone and recovery will take up to 5 years. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. European gas prices spiked 70%. Asian spot prices doubled. The only remaining scaled supplier? The United States. If Iran falls & a successor government is installed that the US controls or influences (the Delcy model described weeks ago) then roughly 40 to 45 million barrels per day of global production out of 103 million is effectively under US control. OPEC becomes irrelevant because the US coalition is now the marginal producer. Now add the gas dimension & it goes beyond oil. This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD. The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale. The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They're now locked into the US energy system. The market confirms this. DXY went from 96 to 101. Gold down ~20% from its January all time high. Bitcoin down 20% on the year. Brent above $100. European & Asian institutions are liquidating precious metals and crypto to buy dollars because they need dollars to buy the only remaining scaled energy supply. The world is selling its gold to buy American energy in American currency. The dollar is now being weaponized through energy dependency. The structural repricing is happening regardless of how the conflict resolves. But the US grand strategy goes deeper.. Artificial intelligence is a physical industry. It runs on power and chips. Data centers require massive uninterrupted baseload electricity, primarily provided by natural gas. Semiconductor fabrication requires helium & rare earths. By choking the Strait of Hormuz & crippling Middle Eastern LNG & helium production, the US is systematically degrading China's ability to power its data centers & fabricate semiconductors at scale. The US is energy self sufficient, especially with newly captured Venezuelan reserves & expanding Gulf Coast capacity running on domestic gas. On the other hand, China is import dependent & every joule it imports effectively now transits chokepoints the US Navy controls.. Iran was the Belt & Road's overland energy bypass, the corridor that allowed China to mitigate the Malacca Trap. With Iran neutralized that corridor is severed. China faces a world where its compute infrastructure competes for scraps on a depleted global LNG market, while American data centers run at full capacity on domestic energy. Russia is next in the sequence. A post-war Iran reopening under US influence competes directly with Russia for the same refineries in China & India at lower cost. Iran's production costs are lower. Russia loses its last structural advantage in heavy crude & its economic lifeline. Additionally, under the Iran war cover, Ukraine has been opportunistically destroying Russian energy infrastructure & all signs point towards Russia being at the end of the line. The message from Washington becomes very simple: we dismantled two regimes in three months, your economy is about to get crushed, sign the Ukraine deal. Then Trump sits down with Xi holding every card. Complete energy dominance. The hybrid petro/LNG-dollar fortified, Iran cleared, Russia cornered, & China facing the Malacca Trap fully closed with no remaining energy bypass. Israel & the GCC are absorbing the kinetic cost of a conflict whose primary beneficiary, counter to the mainstream narrative, is actually America (First). Qatar offline for 5 years reprices the entire global gas market in favor of US exporters for the remainder of the decade. The Gulf states face years of rebuilding. Europe faces its 2nd energy crisis in four years. Sure, the average American might face temporary moderate inflation & higher gas prices. But if you are the architect of the US empire & you view the rise of China & Chinese ASI as an existential winner takes all scenario, the collateral damage is acceptable cost. Whoever controls the energy corridors controls the monetary system. Whoever controls the monetary system & the energy supply simultaneously controls the compute infrastructure that determines which civilization builds ASI first. The US is seizing all 3.
Weird considering DXY is up since the start of the war. 97.7 to 100 in a month Maybe the commonly held talking points aren’t actually true?
That’s a fair assessment. The difference between "resilience" and "true momentum" is a fine line right now. To lean into that macro-heavy perspective and spark some debate, you could ask: Do you think we need to see oil and the DXY actually cool off before BTC can break its correlation with macro fear, or is the fact that it's holding the high 60k range despite those headwinds the 'clean' signal we're looking for?
Keep an eye on these on TradeView: - DXY (most important), if it’s going up then the crypto market is fighting against it and struggles from it. But this also benefits ETF’s such as S&P500 - US10Y (U.S government bonds, also super important): if it goes up, it also means the crypto market can take a hit here - QQQ (also important): if it’s going down, chances are the crypto market may also struggle too, now that BTC has heavier ties to ETF’s than it did years prior. So, Just basically download the app, keep an eye on those 3. Whether or not the stock market (individual stocks or index funds such as S&P500) or crypto goes up first is hard to know, but when DXY & US10Y is rising in month to month charts, these two are the most important factors for realising if the crypto market is risk on, or risk off. Other things matter, like the war etc, no denying that much. But those two macro factors single-handedly are the most important factors for knowing if BTC will not only: - rise again - but actually sustain its rise rather than break back down - it’s weird because DXY going up = typically bad for crypto, yet good for stocks/ETF’s
Post is by: NewMJay and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: http://infototrader.com Salut à tous, Je développe InfoToTrader depuis quelques mois et je voulais partager l'outil ici pour avoir vos retours directs. C'est quoi concrètement ? Un tableau de bord tout-en-un pour traders, accessible directement dans le navigateur sans installation. L'idée de départ est simple : arrêter de jongler entre 5 onglets différents pour suivre un actif. Tout est centralisé — prix, actualités filtrées, calendrier économique, niveaux clés, corrélations, indicateurs macro. Les 3 mode de trading C'est ce qui différencie InfoToTrader de la plupart des agrégateurs de données : **M**ode scalper Session en cours, fenêtres de volatilité par actif (ex : overlap London/NY pour l'or ou le forex), événements intraday avec countdown en temps réel, alertes priorité haute. Tout ce dont tu as besoin quand tu as 30 secondes pour décider. Mode day trader : Semaine économique complète, actualités filtrées par actif (pas de bruit inutile), radar réseaux sociaux avec détection de divergence sentiment vs fondamentaux. **M**ode investisseur : Indicateurs macro mis à jour (taux Fed/BCE/BOJ, DXY, US10Y, VIX), analyse fondamentale, scénarios haussier/baissier/range avec probabilités pour chaque actif. Ce qui est couvert 35+ actifs : Or, Argent, WTI, Brent, Gaz Naturel, Cuivre, Blé, Maïs — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD — S&P 500, Nasdaq, CAC40, DAX, FTSE, Nikkei — Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP — Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, TotalEnergies, LVMH. Ce qui rend l'outil unique * Adapté par actif : les niveaux clés, corrélations et événements affichés sont spécifiques à l'actif sélectionné. L'Or n'a pas le même calendrier que le Nikkei. * Sentiment Dynamique : calculé en temps réel à partir de la tendance des prix, de la position vs niveaux S/R et de l'agenda macro du jour — pas un score statique sorti de nulle part. * Niveaux clés dynamiques : recalculés à chaque mouvement de prix via Camarilla Pivots, pas des niveaux figés mis à jour une fois par semaine. * Fuseau horaire : tous les horaires s'adaptent automatiquement à ta zone — un trader en Asie voit les mêmes événements aux bonnes heures. * 100% Gratuit, pas de compte, pas d'email requis, ça s'ouvre et ça marche. Ce qui arrive prochainement * Analyse IA contextuelle par actif (Claude AI) — en cours * Application mobile * Alertes Telegram/Discord Lien : [infototrader.com](http://infototrader.com) Je lis tous les commentaires et je réponds à chaque question. Si vous trouvez un bug, une donnée incohérente ou une fonctionnalité qui manque, dites-le moi directement ici c'est exactement pour ça que je post. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
DXY's at 100. US Treasury yields are up. Nobody's de-dollarising. Maybe later but definitely not now. Market’s focusing on consequences of this war - inflation and potential interest rate hikes. Bitcoin has many advantages one of which is being able to transact instantly, especially if you self-custody. Tokenised gold may get there but it just doesn't have the market Bitcoin has.
DXY is just strength compared to other OECD currencies - look at gold.
DXY is back above 100, and we couldn’t hold levels. Disgusting. Can’t wait for the end of the year. High inflation, low rates, and a weak ass mother fuckin dollar.
tldr; Bitcoin remains resilient at $71,000 despite macroeconomic pressures, including a surging U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) above 100 and 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 4.2%. Risk assets like Nasdaq-tracking QQQ and oil near $100 typically face challenges under such conditions. MicroStrategy (MSTR) added 11,000 BTC using funds from its Stretch (STRC) security, while crypto exchange Coinbase gained 2%. Market signals suggest potential for an explosive move in Bitcoin's price as it holds steady amid these headwinds. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
DXY just exploded up. Now we're going bear market.
Laddered exits beat vibes. Mine: 20% at 180k fib, 30% DXY>105, trail rest on 50-day MA breach. Written plan netted $40k this cycle.
Honestly, this crash isn't just a random correction. If you look at the Nasdaq correlation and the recent tariff announcements, it’s a perfect storm. We’re seeing massive liquidations of over-leveraged longs because people expected the '2026 recovery' to be a straight line up. Macro uncertainty is king right now, and until the DXY cools off, I don't see a bottom...
You get it! 👍🏽 The USD probably has only half a decade at best in the right environment. We're up to our necks in inflation and a fiat currency war with BRICS nations. We know who. Tomorrow should be interesting when the market opens. This shit with Iran will make the DXY and oil act funny maybe.
Fair point — gold has had a great run. My framework does incorporate cross-asset signals (DXY, gold, SPY) as context for crypto positioning. Different thesis though: I'm not trying to pick the best asset class, I'm trying to generate alpha within crypto using on-chain + macro signals
There is no $150B “refund hole” and the Fed does not print money to fund tariff rollbacks. Treasury operations are not QE. If tariffs were adjusted, that does not automatically create a sudden liquidity injection. Refunds are not instant, not guaranteed, and not funded by the Fed turning on a printer. If this were a real liquidity shock, we would see it in actual plumbing. Fed balance sheet expansion. Meaningful reverse repo drain. Sustained DXY weakness. Credit spreads tightening. Lower real yields. That is what liquidity looks like. Not a headline. Also, crypto has historically moved in a 4 year reflexive supply cycle tied to the halving and liquidity conditions. Markup, rotation, blow off, contraction. If we are entering the contraction side of the cycle, liquidity tightens and alts underperform. A single macro rumor does not override structural cycles. This isn’t about politics. It’s about mechanics. Liquidity is measured, not imagined.
I'm going to give you one metric that currently has a 100% correlation with metals, crypto, and stocks: DXY. Everything hinges on market expectations of future rate cuts. If DXY hugs the 97 points floor, it's good to be long. If it rallies, everything drops. I'm not joking — until there's an official policy, you're trading the dollar in so many disguises.
and how do you know if we havent bottom? DXY is below 96, MVRV Ratio is 1.31 and fear index is 11. It just doesnt make sense to keep going down.
i think the same, we won't go below $65k. DXY is below 96, MVRV Ratio is 1.31 and fear index is 11. It just doesnt make sense to keep going down.
Trump promised American crypto people that he will be a pro crypto president, and yet he is the mastermind of this crypto catastrophe. First, the pump and dump Trump and Melania coins, Second the war which strengthen the DXY. Third, the pardon of CZ, which allegedly in collution with trump, give trump crypto market, and the will be free. Fourth, more altcoins are being created, which divide the liquidity of altcoin and crypto market as a whole.
Actually, EUR/USD changes 1X % within a year all the time, both ways. You're just subscribing to the lastest fad to parrot and I think we're up for a DXY bullrun.
Meanwhile bad jobs numbers don't even more the markets / DXY anymore.
The dollar is up 10% over 5 years up against a basket of currencies, DXY Yen euro pound krona Swiss franc and Canadian dollar
2026 it goes back to DXY for the most hated rally
Crypto is just liquidity for institutions. Go watch the chart from tonight and put it against DXY. It has a nearly perfect correlation, technicals and trends be damned. To answer your question: crypto can only go up when the dollar is weak, yields are low, and there's excess cash in the system (M2). Without these prerequisites, it's literally a highly liquid, non-yielding asset that can be sold 24/7 to cover margins, so they'll keep selling it when needed until the macro environment changes.
I can point to a chart and explain the gold movement vs the dollar. You cannot do that with Bitcoin. Go compare XAU to DXY. They move inversely because that's how value works. An asset can be undervalued or overvalued, but will still move within reason over time. Simply show me where Bitcoin has gone up as the dollar has fallen and then moved inversely. You say Bitcoin hedges against the dollar, show charts that prove this.
Silver and gold just hit new ATHs while the dollar value is at a multi-year low. The dollar bounced and metals fell. That's exactly what you want to see. Compare DXY to gold or silver. They move inversely as they should. That is the definition of a store of value.
I don’t think you’re following what I’m saying. DXY is down about 12% over last year and bitcoin is about the same over that same period. There’s variations yes but as the dollar value has declined relative to other currencies so has bitcoin. Bitcoin is absolutely tied to the US dollar.
april to nov BTC/DXY was up 75%. There's no escaping a bear market in a bear market.
Yeah, go look at bitcoin’s price relative to the DXY. The graphs over the last year tell the story.
Well, first of all, this isn't true. The DXY jumped +0.50% (which is a big move) between 10-11am ET while BTC plummeted 4% in the same hour. Second, the S&P 500 made an ATH on Wednesday, and equities are tied to the USD. The fact is, crypto is in a very unique position of being just about the only asset in a bear market.
That doesn't really make sense though if your currency is USD. When people talk about the dollar devaluing they're usually referring to the DXY, which is just a comparison to other currencies. Unless you're doing foreign exchange, or are measuring something in the other currency, it doesn't mean much. Unless you're talking about purchasing power, which is an inflation thing.
126k was the pump. Now it's dumping, along with the DXY lol
Is anybody else genuinely worried about Gold price ascent and DXY fall while crypto standing still? I for one am pretty jittery about this and I have a relatively far time horizon.
Look up DXY's performance in the last year lol. It has devalued exactly 11% in the last year as of Jan 28, 2026.
Upside of gold is discussed at $6000 as fast as it goes up it goes down. 20% upside. Bitcoin downside is around $10000 lower but upside is between $150 000 and $250 000 but this is speculation at best. The earnings and potential government shutdown are key factors. DXY is dropping best to not be sitting on too much cash, or carry too much debt.
tldr; Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, suggests that potential Federal Reserve intervention to support the Japanese yen could lead to increased dollar liquidity, weakening the dollar index (DXY) and boosting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Hayes theorizes that the Fed and U.S. Treasury might create dollar reserves to stabilize Japan's bond market, indirectly benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. While his hypothesis remains unconfirmed, he believes such actions could drive asset price inflation, with traders closely monitoring Fed data for signs of this scenario. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
DXY seems to have just broke below a decade+ long support trend line that it’s bounced off of since 2011🤔
DXY seems to have just broke below a decade+ long support trend line that it’s bounced off of since 2011🤔
Sheesh. Dollar is collapsing hard right now. DXY, USD/CHF, USD/EUR, USD/JPY all pointing down.
DXY chart looks heavy af. There might a slight relief for us there
DXY down 10% in 1 year. Shitcoin level
Bro hasn’t even bothered to pull up a chart of DXY since Trump took office. Fake Fox talking points
the DXY is *not* the inverse of BTC
Dude, the stock market is literally at an all time high. So I don’t know what you’re going on about. The democrats were literally actively trying to kill crypto. Crypto is where the vast majority of my wealth has been made. So yeah, Trump has reversed what the dems were doing and is laying a foundation for crypto mass adoption. While the dems are still fighting. I’ve lived abroad for the past 15 years because I specifically don’t want to deal with all America’s problems. Additionally, I don’t vote because it doesn’t feel fair to participate in something that I’ve removed my self from. That said, it still affects me because of bitcoin and taxes. And you simply will not be able to convince me that Trump was bad for crypto because he rugged meme coin gamblers. I pulled off a 5x this cycle buying low and selling BTC hight. I see absolutely no problem. Besides, I think your world view is way too myopic and US-centric. China is in a deflationary housing spiral. People are rushing into metals to preserve their wealth. The Japan Carey trade is unwinding, further pushing the DXY dollar down. Frances’ debt is crippling Europe. Government around the world totally over leverage. I think we can agree Bitcoin is the solution to a lot of these problems. And I’m grateful, as an American, that Trump is establishing laws supporting crypto, stable coins, and Bitcoin. As for all the shit with ICE murdering people. My wife is a foreigner, and my son. The international conflicts, tariffs, and generally fuckery. Trump is a borderline totalitarian dictator and global bully. That makes me ashamed to be an American and super glad I don’t live there. I daily show gratitude to the country I reside in for the peace and prosperity it gives me and my family. I honestly wish you the best over there.
when DXY dumps, btc usually pumps but usual isn't usual anymore
Seeing this market in the gutter as DXY keeps dropping lower is heart breaking.
I think the issue generally is, BTC's value is tied to the US dollar index and hegemony. That worked for a long time, until the crypto bros got their hooks into the US government, and their techno-dystopian views got baked into US policy. Now they are reaping what they sowed. Over the last year the DXY is down 13ish %, and so is Bitcoin. That isn't an accident. The premise for folks who have weaker currencies, may still benefit for some period, but as the US goes this path that may not be a lasting proposition.
No, both the DXY and BTC.D are about to bounce hard. Historically, this results in a crash across all risk assets with BTC (and risk assets as a whole) taking a big drawdown and alts getting hit the hardest. If you are buying alts to hold right now, the chances are that you will regret it.
Oh and the DXY chart is at an inflection point.
True, DXY is down 9,55% compared to Jan 2025.
Trump trying to jail Powell is gonna only make the DXY index fall and Bitcoin will have a nice rally. Stay strong in Bitcoin.
Depends on how far the DXY falls.
I hear you on the 94k resistance—it's been a tough nut to crack, and the order books show a lot of sell pressure sitting right there. Regarding the 'Tariff FUD' from last April, it’s a perfect example of how the market is now reacting to DC politics as much as it does to on-chain data. It was a classic shakeout that rewarded anyone with a longer time horizon. I think your 82k 'market mean' target is a solid level for a retest. If we do dip below 90k, seeing how we hold at the 82k-85k support will be the real test of this structure. I’m staying neutral for now, but keeping an eye on the DXY—if the dollar keeps cooling, that 150k target for 2027 starts looking very conservative. Are you mostly in BTC, or are you looking at any of the 'tariff-resistant' sectors like DeFi?
One thing I’m watching closely is the 'MVRV Z-Score.' In previous years, it was a perfect indicator of the top, but it seems to be staying in a neutral zone even as prices climb. To me, this suggests that the market isn't 'overheated' yet—it’s just being repriced by larger players. I'd love to hear if any of you are still using the Pi Cycle Top indicator or if you’ve moved toward watching the DXY (Dollar Index) for your primary signals.
This is a checklist of hopium, not a thesis. Ending QT doesn’t mean QE, and rate cuts usually happen because the economy is breaking — not because it’s time for alts to moon. A “crypto-friendly Fed chair” is fantasy until it actually happens, and even then the Fed isn’t cutting rates so random L2s can pump. Regulatory clarity helps BTC and maybe ETH — it doesn’t magically create demand for 90%-down, endlessly diluted alts with zero utility. Being at cycle lows isn’t bullish when most of those projects are structurally dead. If liquidity improves or DXY weakens, BTC eats first — we’ve already watched that play out this cycle. The market changed: ETFs, options, sports betting, and memecoins replaced alts as the casino. Retail isn’t coming back to baghold infrastructure tokens. There will be random pumps. A broad alt supercycle in 2026? That’s pure cope. I hope you all the best, but its best to be real than hold onto false hope.
New Fed chair in 2026 who will be more crypto friendly, more etf's for crypto coming, QT has ended and QE will be starting up, inflation is slowly getting under control, more possible fed rate cuts coming 2026, The war between Russia and Ukraine might end soon, PMI ready to expand, crypto risk for alot of altcoins sitting at cycle lows, DXY weakening, clarity act is coming soon. Good luck and never buy more then what you can afford to lose. I'm not saying a super cycle will happen but factors are possible for a rebound.
Interesting data. Here's how I'm reading it as a trader: The ETF Flow Context: $314M outflow is notable, but context matters: Total BTC ETF AUM is ~$100B+ This is 0.3% of holdings - not massive in relative terms Single-day flows are noisy (year-end rebalancing is real) What Actually Matters for Traders: December 26th timing suggests: Tax-loss harvesting completion Institutional portfolio rebalancing Holiday liquidity thinness amplifying moves The Real Question: Is this the start of a trend or isolated noise? Indicators I'm watching: Does this continue into January? (Actual trend) What's on-chain flow doing? (Miners, whales, exchanges) Funding rates across derivatives markets Correlation with macro (DXY, yields) Prop Trading Implication: For anyone in prop challenges right now, this is exactly why you don't size up aggressively into year-end. Low liquidity + uncertain flows = higher risk of stop-hunts and volatile swings. If you're in evaluation, survive December, size up in January when flows normalize.
Somebody flushed the toilet on the DXY.
For me, most of the time my edge is decaying because the market is rotating on higher timeframes. Or at least that’s been my own conclusion. But most of my edge revolves around technical setups (market structure, price action, volume), so it’s a lot less likely to be impacted by things like macroeconomics or fundamentals. But yeah, usually your trade journal will give you some decent clues to start ruling out some possible causes. Really this depends a lot on your strategy. If your strategy is actually try arbitrage play, then you should consider whether the arbitrage exists anymore. Those are great strategies while they last, but they never last for very long. If you’re using fundamental analysis in your strategy, you it’s more likely to be affected by changes in fundamentals (obviously) and macroeconomic shifts. If you operate purely on technical analysis, then it could be a lot of things, but you can kinda narrow down the possibilities by analyzing your data in a smart way. First, you want to see the equity curve. Is it decaying in a gradual arc downward? Is it getting a lot choppier with consistent wins but more frequent losses? Is it moving in a wave? You just kinda have to tease out the data and work like a scientist. Rather than just asking “why” something is happening, ask “what should I be seeing in my data if X is true?” And always follow up with “would it ever make sense to see that pattern in my data if X were false?” This is how you gradually rule out different factors. There is no single “right way” to do this. You just have to have a really strong understanding of where your actual edge comes from, and you need to figure out how to isolate various factors to understand their impact independently from other factors. This is effectively what data science is. And it’s worthwhile to gain a basic understanding of statistics to help with your analysis. One place you could start is by looking at the macro context. If you notice an obvious decay occurring around a single point in time, you should look at various correlated (and inversely correlated) assets that could indicate a macro shift. For example, I trade foreign currency futures, so if I notice the US dollar suddenly starts trending down on the DXY (dollar index), then I should expect short trades to fail more often on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Even great short setups on those pars will just naturally fail more often because I’m fighting a trend on a significantly correlated instrument. One thing you’ll probably notice is the crypto tends to go up as the dollar weakens. It tends to go up when high value stocks are making all time highs. It tends to trade inversely with gold. Why? Because all of those are indicators that investors are taking on more risk, which is necessary for crypto to continue rising. Idk, it’s all so situation-specific, so it’s hard to give you concrete answers. I hope this at least helps you get started down the right path.
The inherent reasons behind the dollar losing value is also behind the reasons why crypto/BTC has spent so much of 2025 in turmoil. A 2025 without all the problems affecting the DXY would have kept crypto much more stable and healthy as well.
The inherent reasons behind the dollar losing value is also behind the reasons why crypto/BTC has spent so much of 2025 in turmoil. A 2025 without all the problems affecting the DXY would have kept crypto much more stable and healthy as well.
Did I miss the face value of each check? I heard 1.45 million Servicepeople, so even something high like $2k a check would be $3 Billion worth of military perk. DXY might tick-down a bit tonight at least, but we've been averaging like $2 Billion a day in fresh debt in 2025.
They forget the sentiment was the complete opposite of this near the top, where most were calling for 140k+. DXY, ETHBTC, Russel2000, BTC.d not exactly showing signs of a rally. Also BTC being putting in higher highs in a tightish range. People have no patience and are just purely emotional and blindly follow this supposed 4 year cycle. The bear trap is set up perfectly, loads who were happily buying above 110k now too scared to buy at these levels because that's obviously rational, and when price likely rises they're all going to start feeling some FOMO and feeling stupid based on the macroeconomic outlook. Also idc I've been called delusional too many times at this point for being bullish for crypto this last month
Biden was president from 2021 to 2025. Inflation was going down towards the end of his term because it has gone up so high already. And either way, over those 4 years there was still inflation ie the dollars value still went down because of inflation. And the DXY index tracks the dollars value relative to other fiat currencies; that doesn’t mean shit to the average person. It has a small impact on what imported items you buy, but that’s all. We’re talking about what the dollar buys you here; groceries, housing, other assets, transportation, energy. I’m not saying that trump is doing a good job, or inflation isn’t insane with him too. I can see you think that though with how deeply you’re trying to defend your side. I’ll expand on my first comment, Biden did a shit job, trump did a shit job (twice), Obama did a shit job, Bush did a shit job, etc. They almost always grow the deficit to gain votes from gullible people like you and they allow bankers to run the world and grow the money supply to enrich themselves, make the middle class poor and make the poor poorer.
Dude, you're so off base it's hilarious. You need to check your facts before you comment, because you're confusing two different four-year periods. First, your inflation number is a total lie. The official inflation rate for the first administration you're talking about (Jan 2017 to Jan 2021) was only about 7.7% total. The massive 19% price hike everyone suffered happened after that. Get your timelines straight. In fact, inflation was basically dead when the Biden term ended. Core inflation (the number the Fed actually cares about) was almost at the 2% target. The only reason it jumped and spiked again is because of the new tariffs that started in January. You can't even blame the previous guys for the current price hikes; the Fed Chair himself, Jerome Powell, basically told Congress that the tariffs are the reason inflation is still running hot and over the 2% goal. The claim about the dollar is just silly. The dollar is constantly going up and down, that's how currency works. It saw huge increases in 2018 and 2020. Saying it "never goes up" is just demonstrating you don't know how the DXY index works. And yes, there was massive money printing, but let's be accurate about that too. That money printing started with the CARES Act in 2020 under the first administration. M2 money supply exploded by over 41% between 2020 and 2022. That completely destroys the original poster's claim about "less spending" because money was flooding the economy across both presidencies. Look at the actual scoreboard for those latter four years. The performance of that administration completely crushed the one before it. We got back all the pandemic jobs and hit near 50-year low unemployment rates. The stock market kept hitting massive new highs. The World Bank even came out and said that the strength of the US economy was the only thing stopping a global recession. That is not weak, that is phenomenal. As for the world "hating us," that's just a lazy opinion. International favorability changes with every single new president. Our financial power isn't suddenly gone, it's just that other rivals are finally loud enough to challenge the dollar's dominance, but we are still the world's biggest economy by far. You tried to fact check the original poster, but you're just spreading inaccurate numbers and confusing the timeline. The economic data on jobs, markets, and global stability all point to the latter four years being the stronger period.
Of course it matters. But no one issue / concern takes total precedence over another. What it all really boils down to is "what will increase or decrease buying interest in crypto, what is happening to the dollar's value with respect to inflation/DXY, and are there any major concerns in the near future that might affect these." You know what basically sparked the 2020-2021 bull run? To the date, it was the Fed having an emergency session to cut interest rates by over a full percent down to just 0-0.25%, and announcing the beginning of QE where they're building a reserve of assets in the equities markets, at the same time the Stimulus Package was signed (another gigantic liquidity injection). It took over 18 months from that point for the economy to actually feel the pain from those decisions, which was right in November 2021 as the Fed reversed course. 2025 has had very steadily-improving fiscal conditions, but also mixed with HIGH uncertainty in inflation risk and unemployment risk, alongside the "Oh Shit Factor" of Trump just antagonizing the whole damn world. When things calm down, all that's left to affect the markets is the backlog of positive conditions.
Yeah S&P500 definitely matters since they're both treated as risk-on assets. But you missed the Dollar Index (DXY). Usually when DXY tanks, BTC rips. That inverse correlation is huge.
Because DXY is getting stronger. 104 will be here soon
Just to add to this before 4y cyclists point out that we topped in Q4 - *exactly* on schedule. We really didn't. What happened is the US dollar crashed, printing a new ATH on BTCUSD. If we look at BTCEUR, the top really occurred in January. We went up a *whopping* 1.4% from that peak in October. So no, you didnt *really* get your classic Q4 top. Had the DXY remained neutral there wouldn't be anyone seriously considering it a new ATH, even though on paper it is.
Y’all don’t get it lmao we aren’t in a bear market or going into one. We’re coming out of one for the last 3 years . DXY breaking down from a level that sparked the last 2 bull runs, US PMI heading higher, USDT.D at resistance ready to send lower. All the indicators that have sparked the previous bull runs are flashing big green lights. Good luck don’t get wrecked.
It is. The fact your laughing about it is why it will happen, BTC.d is dropping. DXY dancing at psychological resistance of 100, sentiment is perfect, don't forget the fact that you always see a disgusting liquidation to the downside before almost every parabolic rally. Alt seasons won't start when everyone is screaming for it. It'll start when no-one believes it and it's a laughing matter. #trustmebro
The bounce was correlated with a quick drop in the DXY at exactly 7:30am ET. I'm not seeing any news (yet).
No. None of the signs are in. Everyone's been saying since the end of last cycle that this cycle would be more drawn out because of the institutional investing. We haven't had "blow-off top" even yet. Long term hodler whales are still accumulating, not selling. ETF inflows still positive. No miner capitulation yet. Interest rates are falling and DXY is weakening. We're at the last correction right before the final leg, if I had to guess. Whether the top really blows off like it has in previous cycles still remains to be seen, as the institutional investing may dull the parabolic spike.
DXY is ripping and we’re not absolutely crashing. I think we found the structural bottom. 🤌
Sorry if this a stupid question. What is DXY ? What is the connection with crypto/market ?
The DXY has fallen over 10% this year and crypto has by far underperformed every other asset in the world this year despite having the spotlight
I get where you’re coming from and yeah, 20–35% pullbacks absolutely can happen in a bull market. I’d love if Bitcoin could just go straight up forever. But this drop isn’t acting like a normal bull correction anymore, and pretending it is feels like forcing the narrative. We didn’t just dip into support, we sliced straight through the 8W EMA, the bull market support band, and the 50WMA. In past cycles you might break one of those on a pullback, not all of them at once. That usually happens after the top, not during an “ongoing bull run.” We’re also around 80 weeks post halving, which is way past the part of the cycle where bull pullbacks lead to continuation. Deep breakdowns this late usually mean trend reversal. On top of that, macro is tightening, DXY is rising, yields are rising, and equities look shaky. That’s not the environment where Bitcoin rips to new highs. Fear and Greed dropping to the mid-teens at a six-figure price is also a massive red flag. Extreme fear normally happens after the top, not during “healthy dips.” And hash ribbons getting close to a capitulation signal doesn’t happen in mid-bull phases either. That’s bear market stuff. I’m not rooting for lower prices. I wish the bull kept going. But all the signs right now line up way more with a cycle top and early bear market than a clean bull correction. If I’m wrong, awesome, number goes up and everyone wins. But the data isn’t backing the classic “bull dip” story this time. Also nobody knows shit about fuck and none of the above has stopped my DCA, nor should it for anyone else. HODL all the way down and up
DXY continues to skid. Not really seeing any news so not sure what the thinking is there. I'm guessing it's the Euro pair that's strengthening since the Yen isn't doing well either.
DXY is down 9% this year, so actually BTC if worth less than it was a year ago
BTC and DXY down today. Your BTC is worth less dollars which are worth less burgers.
Now compare it to DXY and you’ll realize crypto is down in nominal, real terms. You can attribute much of the rise in crypto to dollar devaluation that coincided with trump alienating allies fucking up global trade relations, which sent the dollar plummeting.
Problem is the DXY index keeps rising. The value of all the other currencies especially the yen is dropping faster than ours. Lots of foreigners buy Bitcoin and this hurts them the most.
DXY has been upwards since late sept?
Worldwide stock markets are dropping sharply over record-breaking USA government shutdown and the havoc that is causing to the economy. Weirdly, also the Dollar Index (DXY) is going down. While Bitcoin, Gold and long-term Treasury Notes are rising. People are fleeing towards safety, to perceived sound money (we know that only Bitcoin really fits that title).
But Trump’s trade policy benefits from a weaker dollar for exports. I speculate DXY will keep sinking only to recoup by the next midterm elections, which would mark the beginning of the true bear market. Interesting times lie ahead.
Try overlapping 2017 DXY onto 2025 DXY in TradingView and see that they almost overlap starting from Aug. This is very interesting IMHO. If the correlation holds, we could see sub 98 DXY by Dec 2025 and sub 96 DXY by Feb 2026, which would be pretty coherent with a 150-200K BTC.
Yes if we use logic cutting rates should make DXY go down. However in normal situations bitcoin runs much higher on a -0.50% move in the DXY. So this was probably related to tech stocks.
What about the correlation between Q4 2017 and 2025 DXY? They almost seem to overlap so far. If the correlation holds, DXY should presumably sharply decline in mid Nov and BTC should rise accordingly.
I agree but also DXY dropped by -0.50% so not a pretty picture. Even gold dumped a little bit on the market selloff. What if the AI bubble pops ?
Not the long and strong bear market imo. Macros say otherwise longterm. This moment now is about less rate cuts as expected, causing the DXY to raise and the global liquidity did not grow higher. Future events: - Dec 25: QT will stop, more liquidity comes in - Q2 26: Fed chair Powell will leave, rates to be cut
I'm cautious now in general - DXY is trending up, which is bad for risk-on assets in general, and Powell's mention that the Fed may not cut rates in Dec gives me a bearish sense of things. Gold, miners, silver, etc... everything trending down at the moment...