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Yeah it’s going up now a lot against the USD as the DXY is falling. Look at BTCEUR and see how much weaker it looks than BTCUSD, because the dollar has collapsed 9% in two months.
The image presents a comparison between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin prices from around 2017 to 2025. The key message it conveys is a possible inverse relationship between the strength of the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin bull markets, particularly during so-called "Mania Phases" in crypto. Here’s how to interpret it: Key Elements in the Chart: Green Line = DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Orange Line = Bitcoin price Green Highlighted Zones = Periods labeled as "Mania Phase" Green Circles = Points where DXY breaks below 100 Timeline = Covers from 2017 to projected 2025 Meaning: 1. Inverse Correlation: In each “Mania Phase,” DXY breaks below 100 — signaling weakness in the U.S. dollar. At or soon after these break points, Bitcoin begins to surge, often dramatically — hence the term “Mania Phase.” 2. Historical Pattern: Around late 2017, DXY dropped below 100 and Bitcoin hit its then-all-time high (\~$20k). Again, in mid-2020, DXY dropped below 100, preceding the 2021 bull run where Bitcoin peaked over $60k. In early 2024, DXY again breaks below 100 — prompting the question: “Mania Phase?” — implying another bull run might be coming or has started. 3. Speculative Insight: The image suggests that Bitcoin rallies often coincide with periods of dollar weakness. It implies that the current macro conditions may be setting up a similar scenario, possibly leading to another Bitcoin bull market. Contextual Takeaway: If the U.S. Dollar Index is falling (especially below the psychologically significant level of 100), it may reflect macroeconomic uncertainty or inflation concerns, leading investors to seek alternatives like Bitcoin — especially as a hedge or speculative asset. Would you like help finding or analyzing the current DXY and Bitcoin trends?
i think theyre implying a weak dollar / DXY below 100 correlates with Bitcoin rising rapidly
I think he's trying to say the DXY is going below 100, which means a weak dollar. I think this generally means the printer is coming.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=ALL
US dollar index - represents how the dollar is doing against a basket of foreign currencies. When it breaks below 100 it show's that a hundred bucks is actually doing worse than 100 Euros. And that's when things are off the charts bad. [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=60M](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=60M)
Many many cryptos have potential to go up this year. We are in a bull cycle and we are hanging out at serious lows, particularly in Alts. If I had anything left to invest I would be picking up some bargain basement alts right now. Yes this year also holds volatility on Macro front particularly til tariffs worked out. But we also have a lot of tailwinds toward bull including lower DXY and likely easing/cuts. Good luck!
DXY is roughly at 99-100 - Bitcoin is $95k DXY was roughly 100 in September - Bitcoin was $62k. Yen/AUS/CAD still way down. Euro and Ruble are up.
Huh? Do you even read charts? Or do you just post based on your emotions? DXY is just under 100. Last time DXY was near 100 (Sep 2024), BTC was only at \~$62k. But get real, retail is buying the shit out of BTC right now.
And it’s still higher than its average going back to 2015, and has been range bound and chopping for quite some time, which is what Bitcoin will do in return. Most markets are that way due to the uncertainty. OP is probably just another young kid that wants to get rich quick and has zero understanding of how any of this works. The DXY did break a critical support on the daily before it bounced back up recently. When we retest it and head back down this post will make a little more sense, but not by much lol.
It’s complicated. Bitcoin is denominated in Bitcoin. By its nature, you have forex risk to every other currency in the world that ppl might exchange for a bitcoin (including off exchange). USD investors just benefited from forex. The DXY tanked and Bitcoin/USD went up. There’s a ton of factors at play but I’m sure some of our EU friends saw they could buy the same amount of BTC for less euros and the smart ones pulled the trigger.
DXY is bouncing back up while gold is tanking.
Gold has been diving back down while DXY is bouncing back up. But BTC is still holding up.
Stocks dump= BTC pump DXY dump= BTC pump Stocks pump= BTC pump DXY pump= BTC pump. It seems like we might be entering the phase where it doesn't even matter what anything else does, BTC pumps.
DXY massive rally on the news. Did the markets really believe he was serious?
DXY is not a “reserve” currency. Not by a long shot. Call it global liquidity, fine, but absolutely not reserve.
Hard to be exited about 90k when DXY has been falling off a cliff.
Not really. DXY was at this level nearly every year for the last three. Plus debt is still dollar for dollar. Lower DXY gets the better consumer/margin debt gets.
Tech socks annihilated SPY down 3% DXY down 1% Euro up 1% Bitcoin and gold up 3% It's begun.....
BTC +4% NASDAQ -2.5% and DXY -10% to a 3 year low WITHOUT any rate cuts yet.
Bitcoin is going to $0 just like DXY
Bonds and stocks dropping with DXY. Not ideal for the fed. Need one of those big red buttons Fiatello had.
M2 skyrocketing, DXY crashing, legislation turning, institutions getting orange pilled. Imagine not owning any BTC right now?
Is that how purchasing power is measured? How much foreign paper one can buy? No. Purchasing power is measured by how many goods and services you can buy. Did prices climb 10% in the last 3 months? No. DXY ≠ inflation/deflation.
I’m not here to claim that bitcoin will be the reserve currency. Could be a digital yuan, could be the euro. Could indeed be bitcoin. Who knows. All I know is the dollar has lost 10% of its power since beginning of the year against the other currencies in DXY. People aren’t really talking about that. But…. This should give us all concern.
DXY index gives a pretty clear picture.
DXY is basically USD vs. euro, it means very little. All other moves are nothing.
BTC is not going up, USD is going down. Watch the Dixie, (USD currencies index,DXY, stands at approximately 98.32, marking a significant drop down). Watch BTC/EUR (down 2% last month) BTC/GDP and BTC/JPY, not only BTC/USD. If you live everywhere else in the world USD went down and BTC just went down a little less, but down all the same. Good news the bitcoin isn't taking this hit, but if I was a US resident shit like this would worry me.
> DXY falling 10% in 3 months also doesn't mean US citizens have 10% less purchasing power for real world goods & services. The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. So...yes thats exactly what that means relative to holding other countries currencies.
Changes in purchasing power are measured by inflation, not the DXY.
A lot of talk about the weakness of the US dollar. At the time of writing, it stands at \~98 points after dropping from \~109 points 3 months ago. It's not as severe as some people make it out to be, so let's put it into perspective. 98 points is about the average DXY value of the last 50 years. In other words: the dollar is just as strong as it was in in 1973. DXY falling 10% in 3 months also doesn't mean US citizens have 10% less purchasing power for real world goods & services. Prices didn't rise 10% in the same time.
The dollar is falling harder than S&P 500 Futures: [DXY Trafing view](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/) Serious USD outflows. Gold also rising strong.
Soon. It’s pumping on a holiday and a Sunday, books thin, low volume. So quiet you could hear a pin drop in this sub. Futures red, $DXY sliding even further and BTC 4H closes on a bull divergence. “Bitcoin doesn’t move gradually. It launches.”
Guys, just have a look at the DXY. The US dollar is going down the drain.
Imbeciles, DXY has fallen off the cliff. Euro/usd is up 0.50%. Your btc hasn’t moved
DXY slide continues... well into the 98s now.
I would enter $7200 over this weekend, BTC vs DXY every day of every week until I am being eaten by the worms. FIAT is shit, as you seem to know, your gut is pushing you in the right direction. The people below, yelling with their opinions about "investing" I don't believe they have any idea as they are still under the fiat spell. BTC is the rarest commodity on earth, look at Gold, imagine what BTC will do? When the first Sovereign realizes you can print paper and exchange it for BTC it would be too late for you at that time. This is my opinion and you seem like myself a year or two ago. Although you might be ahead of me if you are already running a node but I am right behind you. Good luck my friend. Chance and opportunity is all yours!
you're right about bearish macro, but have you considered the chance of the dollar devaluing? BTCUSD might stay confined while DXY freefalls. Just an idea.
The dollar dropped 3.2% last week alone. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/
DXY down, and crypto takes a dump. So stop acting smart
-DXY Falling - Bonds Yields Rising - Volatility Permanently Elevated - Stocks Tanking - Imports Getting Choked - Economists warning of a recession All the indicators of an epic Alt Season are here, /r/cc loading up on shitcoins
Unpredictable on the daily. But it’s rational. DXY down. Dollar worth less. Bitcoin up.
Whenever someone makes a comment and finds a way to stick Trumps name in, I know they’re clueless. Risk assets have a negative correlation to the DXY. Bitcoin has always had this relationship. When Bitcoin goes up, dollar is usually going down.
DXY below 100. Honestly we're just waiting for Trump or Jerome to fold then we send
$DXY finally broke 100 tonight, gold soars to highest closing price in history and BTC is back to $80k+. Countries will race to buy as much bitcoin as possible according to DJT's executive director
Hardly bad for crypto. The DXY is highly inversely correlated to BTC price with a delayed effect. Just put the two on the same chart and inverse the DXY price scale.
First time I've seen the DXY below 100 in a long time.
If we can get both DXY and Interest rates to drop then we zoom. In general of following DXY is good. That means assets go up against the dollar.
Agreed. Recent price action has been 100% fear and uncertainty driven. We basically manifested our own correction and made recession indicators flash despite no true underlying issues. It's actually a pretty poignant example of market psychology driving everything. There's no covid or defaulting banks. Tariffs have barely been active. Everyone just panicked because they thought for a second they might have elected a madman who doesn't understand macroeconomics. (He does). Yes he's reckless and this is a dangerous game that could backfire, but there's clearly a plan. But yesterday proved the Trump Put is still a thing and that this is all a negotiation albeit a risky one. Trade deals will get made one by one. Inflation will come in way cooler than expected the next couple months. The fed will ease. The market will regain confidence. All the sidelined money will chase prices up. The SBR will get introduced to Congress and hit the news cycle. The DXY is way down. Global liquidity is up. None of the crazy bullish BTC news we got in February and March got priced in. It's only been a day so the fear hasn't subsided but as price goes up, the greed will kick in quickly. 90 days is a long time in markets. I'm biased because I loaded up on MSTR calls at the bottom on Tuesday. But this is a perfect textbook setup for the next leg up. I'm glad the other posters here are still fearful. Good sign. Time will tell.
Kinda crazy that the DXY and 10-Yr Note just can't be kept down. It's like holding a beach ball under water.
People down vote anything that isn't positive news. It's quite possible that thing "recouple" from this point. $BTC is a sovereign currency devaluation hedge. We are not on the precipice of default. Watch FX markets for that -- the DXY would need to drop into the 80s for this to be a remote possibility.
I’d love to see Correlation with DXY since, sayyy 2020? Would capture Covid printing, Q1 2023 banking crisis, etc.
BTC has a particularly hostile relationship with the DXY
DXY is only down 5-6% YTD. I’d say the fact that we are holding up, regardless of a weaker dollar, is still good. I think the worst is behind us and once trade negotiations are announced we will continue up. I’m just some dude on Reddit though and I’ve been wrong before.
Maybe in USD when DXY is plummeting lmao Delusional take otherwise.
DXY getting blown to smithereens.
Remember when all of the experts said the DXY increase was only getting started in September 2022? Remember when all of the experts said natural gas prices could continue to go parabolic through 22/23 winter? What these experts say on TV, and what they actually DO are two different things. I'm not saying this his prediction will be right or wrong. I'm just saying you need to keep this in mind. No one is your friend in this market.
Bitcoin would have to fall to about $17k. None of the Bitcoin is encumbered. Strategy will recognize FASB on the q1 earnings call, which will give them approximately $9B profit for the quarter. Strategy should be included in the S&P index this year or next which will give them cash flows from 401ks until the stock market collapses. Trump is working on crashing the DXY, built a strategic Bitcoin Reserve, let every bank in the world offer crypto solutions, bought $100M of crypto himself.. had Saylor on stage.. And finally, the USG is about to have to turn the big money printer on - and you're worried? GTFO.
Yup I watched Truflation and the DXY fucking bomb We need to lower imo or it will get bad fast
I went through some MASSIVE AI prompts with tons of data, including market sentimrnt, DXY, heatmaps, price correlation to bitcoin for alts, fear and greed, RSI etc. Over the last few days, I've been analyzing the best time for bull momentum, and earlier today we hit all the triggers. Of course it could go the other way with news, but current conditions are pretty bullish. CPI tomorrow or other conditions could swing things.
I completely agree with you on the market being forward looking, so the fed was indicating QT was coming which raised the DXY to higher levels also increasing QT.
DXY is collapsing and global liquidity increasing The biggest grifter alive keeps buying more ETH and the edge case of the US becoming anti crypto is gone BTC still above the 50 day MA Fear is everywhere, similar to September 2023 and August 2024 bottoms Short term holders are capitulating And you think the cycle is over?
The USD is THE global reserve currency. What purpose would it serve the US to buy an illiquid asset to serve as a reserve? The point of holding a liquid reserve asset or currency by a central bank is to help to stabilize its currency against volatility. That’s the reason all central banks hold dollars and has sold most of its illiquid gold years ago. The US stabilizes USD volatility through bond purchases and sales. This makes the currency the most stable in the world. In fact, if the US bought crypto as a reserve that action would telegraph to the rest of the world that the USD is no longer backed by the faith and goodwill effort of the Fed and the US government to govern and support the currency. The response to the US’s establishment of a crypto reserve would lead to a shit storm (you’re actually seeing it now as the DXY is crashing) in global finance and beyond. The result would make the Great Depression resemble a birthday party for a 6 years old.
This and also because DXY going down global liquidity going up which is really really good and people dont see this but just see btc dropping and are scared to death.lmao.
DXY is dropping usd valuation going down is bullish
DXY dropping, bitcoin rising. I'm super bullish. Hyperbitcoinization will start within the next decade.
The DXY and Truflation just fell off a fucking cliff. I always save dry stuff. Bring it on. I'm only 41 and have rental property to sell for Bitcoin if it really got that bad haha I do think the worst is not over. The Fed is not lowering rate on the 19th unless shit gets very bad very fast. It'll probably get bad right after that meeting and they will lower next meet or June. IMO
The SBR is not “established” it hasn’t “finally happened” We had a White House crypto summit today, which is bullish for the long term. At the summit trump said something along the lines of “I hope lawmakers can put this on my desk by August” People expect their bags to moon over news events, but what about the next FOMC? What about March OPEX? What about the end of QT? What about the DXY finally falling? What about global M2 liquidity reaching a boiling point? All of those things are bullish and are happening right now over the next couple of months. Give it some time. Or, sell your BTC to me, I’ll buy it…
tldr; The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) experienced its largest weekly drop since 2013, a rare event historically linked to Bitcoin market bottoms. Past instances in 2015, 2020, and 2022 saw significant Bitcoin price rebounds following similar DXY declines. A weaker dollar often benefits risk assets like Bitcoin, making them more attractive. Despite the recent drop, the DXY remains relatively strong at 103.8. This trend suggests potential optimism for Bitcoin's future performance, especially as market sentiment improves with upcoming crypto-related developments. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Brother we are having a crypto summit at the Whitehouse today. How much more bullish of a sentiment do you want? We have none of this in 2021, or 2017. We had an economic collapse in 2021 and crypto was a fuckin security during both bullruns. But if there are a couple more catalysts you should look at: 1. We are during the phase of the bullmarket post halving year when BTC.D traditionally starts dropping. You usually have the first parabolic run end up being bitcoin dominated, and then the market cools off a bit and the second leg up usually follows an altcoin rally 2. Global liquidity is on the rise 3. Quantitative tightening is ending soon 4. DXY is crashing now 5. BTC and crypto literally got approved for a reserve today which is HUGE 6. All of the most prominent political figures have ETH. Even the majority of Trump’s stash is ETH. It’s clearly being manipulated atm
DXY falling below 105 and people confused why assets are rallying. Yall are out here playing checkers lmfao.
Relax time of year has nothing to do with it. Look at global liquidity and bitcoins correlation with it. It lags or front runs it by around 3 months. Global liquidity in Q4 took a steep dive as the DXY rallied which we are now feeling in all stock markets and crypto markets. The good news is liquidity has been accelerating very quickly for the last 2-3 months.. it's only a matter of time till the markets absorb some of this increased money supply. Buckle up.
Lol US is cooked. DXY is dropping without risk asset going up = loss of investor confidence. We’re entering a global bear market, not just crypto. Thanks Trump.
His crypto policies aren't causing weakness in the market though. We have restrictive monetary policy so we can't expect high money supply and liquidity like we saw in the previous bull run. That's partly why every pump is sold off. It's all PvP because there isn't a lot of money sloshing around out there in the financial system just looking for a place to go. When the Fed announced there won't be any more rate cuts going forward, Big Money's pocket books zipped up. And yes, I will admit that the tariffs have moved all the markets more "risk-off" than they were a month ago. But this is a temporary thing, all based on fears that likely won't even materialize. We managed through years of some of the worst inflation; this won't even rival that. Meanwhile there are plenty of good things going on. The DXY and 10-yr note continue to go down, which is a good signal for risk assets. Despite all the hysteria, the core inflation numbers are actually coming down, and that trajectory is forecast to continue. The slight increase in unemployment may give the Fed the runway it needs to start cutting rates again. QT will be ending in a few months. And the official policy of the administration is to have a pro-crypto approach at least in the regulatory sense. The chances of a strategic reserve are high. And Americans may get a tax cut later to help money supply. The story isn't over yet. Nobody knows what it's going to look like 3- or 6-months from now. People are too focused on "the 4-year cycle" and can't get their minds out of that rut.
Nah. Crypto is risk-on. If the dollar crumbles (as in DXY) then it will generally benefit Crypto as a whole as people will be taking other riskiet options.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency I know it's not exactly what you're asking for. But in my opinion it's better to look at the DXY and forex charts for clues to the state of global liquidity than M2 because it captures real time shifts, whereas M2 data releases lag.
DXY is on a tear, who knows. CME gap fills at $77,360 if you follow that for support.
Any time. I can't take credit for the hypothesis. It's just the consensus among the macro people I follow. Looking at the DXY whenever there is a bitcoin fiat price move often tells the story, for better or worse lol.
He didn’t say VXY, he said DXY and that isn’t an elaborate explanation like he just provided, Cornelius
Increase in the DXY makes it more expensive to hold USD denominated debt, so non-US market participants sell their riskiest assets first for their local currencies and trade for USD to cover their USD denominated liabilities. It's a liquidity squeeze.
Not directed at the OP, but how is the notion of a "shakeout" related to a bump in the DXY creating a global liquidity squeeze?
Watching a bump in the DXY so there is a possibility that we'll be chillin in extreme fear range for a little while yet.
Watching a bump up in the DXY today so there is a possibility the fiat price may wander downhill again. Standing by with my fishing net.
If you want to understand why the bitcoin price moves, it's important to know that the bitcoin market coexists with all other financial markets and is treated by a lot of market participants as a risk asset or tech stock. It's going to be one of the first things to be sold in the event of global liquidity squeezes. The DXY is a good clue for this. A lot of bitcoiners have this silly victim mentality that any negative move is a result of some sort of hostile manipulation and while there may be a small sliver of truth there, the reality is that bitcoin is subject to broader global financial market forces.
Lowering the ten year yield encourages investing and risk taking. Combine that with a decreasing DXY (which likely topped for the year already) and risk on assets like stocks and crypto will benefit. Even if the fed doesn’t cut anytime soon. It is actually what the US government wants right now
The prompt is too long and complicated to explain right now, but the source of the data for use is 4 hours of Binance BTC, including the DXY dollar index and Nasdaq indicators as data, and the recent bitcoin and economic articles are collected and analyzed. In the case of the article, I think there have been reactions in the past. All these conditions are combined to indicate how much impact it has had, and I comprehensively predicted the price, told you the option to buy hold, and made a general review
DXY is always useful. 10 year treasury doesn't hurt either.
What do y’all think of the DXY falling over the past several weeks? Historically a bullish reversal signal
Why are you so fixated on the purchasing power of the dollar and the DXY? Trump has made it abundantly clear that he wants a cheaper dollar to be a more competitive. I don’t understand why you’re measuring inflation solely based on the short term DXY? Did it perform well under Biden? Sure but the FED also aggressively raised interest rates. The reason for my 80% of dollars comment is because I and many other economists believe that inflation is driven by currency devaluation caused by the printing of new dollars.
You conflated the DXY and economy. “Trump inherited the ECONOMY” is your exact statement
I think you and others here may misunderstand the difference between cost inflation and currency deflation. The price of eggs going up universally does no devalue the dollar any more than any other currency vs eggs. Bitcoins buying power is as reduced as the USD and every other currency if we wake up tomorrow and eggs are 2x the price. This is different than the value of a currency deflating causing inflation. The increase of supply of USD could and theoretically has deflated the value of a dollar in regards to all other assets, Bitcoin is protected from this. This is why the COL chart shared by one person is silly in the discussion. It cost more in USD and/or Bitcoin to live in Hawaii compared to Montana. It just costs more no matter what currency do to difficulty of resource allocation. Differentially the DXY gets closer to the point I think they were trying to make "how low can the USD go" but my point stands $1 = $1 never more never less. Meanwhile Bitcoins value has to be translated into USD and other currencies in order to be used in the vast majority of cases. So while $1 is always worth a $1 Bitcoin does not have that ability, it could be worth 10 cents or 0 tomorrow. Does that make it a bad investment vehicle, no, I would guess that is actually why most of y'all invest in it. But until Bitcoin and/or Satoshi become stable directly to purchasing (ie you go to the store and the eggs are prices in Satoshis/Bitcoin) its value is more volatile than USD and most other FIAT and to pretend otherwise is silly. TLDR: If I put $1000 into my bank account in USD in 50 years I will still have $1000. If I bought $1000 in Bitcoin I don't have that guarantee, and I would wager you and everyone else here looks at/measures their crypto balances in terms of USD/Fiat currency.