HODL

Darryl_444

Caveats: The past does not guarantee the future. These are my opinions only: For those sitting on cash from selling back in Q4 2025, it is probably close enough to start averaging in again soon. If you are pumping the 4-year-cycle, then you don't really have to be all that accurate. Just patient. At this point it is usually a slow bumping along the bottom for like 3 months prior, and 3 months after the theoretical "best" buy date (Oct/Nov 2026?). Even after that it is a gradual climb, nowhere near as steep as it later gets close to the peak. Loads of time to load up, in retrospect. OTOH, selling at the exact peak is almost impossible. But again if you bought near the bottom you will generally do fine even if you miss nailing it. Buying well is much, much easier than selling well. Average in / average out "close" to the expected bottom / top, is what I do. Shotgun vs sniper. Stick to the plan. Ignore price, watch calendar. Look at the big picture. Or else just HODL long term, as that seems to have worked for people who can actually do it. I myself cannot. I am just an average idiot playing with a small portion of my portfolio. Good luck to all.

MCL-Jonathan

Congrats, you’ve officially been **orange-pilled**! 🟠 My biggest advice: split your Bitcoin into two bags before emotions take over. Keep a **HODL bag** for the long term, ideally forever and never sell! Then have a **swing bag** for buying low and taking profits when the market becomes overheated, so you don’t watch every gain disappear in the next bear market. Decide your allocation early and stick to it. For buying, I’d combine **Scheduled DCA in a bell-shaped pattern, hence during the bear market you will be** buying more during especially towards the end of the bear market. Also with a separate **Dip DCA** fund for deeper sell-offs. Have an entry and exit plan before and stick to that. [Bitcoin Bear Market DCA Playbook](https://youtu.be/JXvr49ECTuo)

MajorAnamika

This same conspiracy theory has been spouted every time prices have fallen in the past. "Shaking out retail so that institutions and whales can buy cheaper! HODL!"

Vizion400

for HODL

OutlandishnessLimp25

Been buying since 2017. At first I looked a ton, I think it’s natural—especially with something so volatile. Now, I look but far less than when I first started. I buy any day we see a drop of 4.80% or higher. I’ve never sold a single sat. I sold 4 properties between 2020-2025, most of those dollars went towards buying more bitcoin. Conviction is a must, which for me, came after studying bitcoin a good amount. If someone lacks the conviction, it really is no different than a buddy telling you to buy a bio tech stock that mooned because he made 2000% in 5 days—the moment that drops everyone who lacks conviction is selling. The key is to buy bitcoin but don’t overbuy. What I mean by “overbuy” is setting yourself up to needing access to that liquidity for something in the short run, inevitably you’ll sell at a loss and you do that enough times you’ll begin to think bitcoin is no good, when in reality your inability to hold longterm is no good and the real issue. Zoom out, stack and HODL.

Lucky-Campaign-8965

It if funny how many people keep thinking cycle after cycle that the 4-year cycle is dead, but it is as alive as the 24-hour day. It would be like it going pitch black at noon if the cycle left. HODL

SpendHefty6066

When Bitcoin was trading at a range of $100 to $300 people were stressing about where the "bottom" is. Or between, $1,000 and $3,000. And so on. In 10 years, whether you got in at $30k or $60k will feel the same. A rounding error. DCA stack and HODL. Keep your keys in air gapped cold storage. Live a simple and healthy lifestyle. Don't spend on frivolous shit. Hone your craft. Live your best life. Stop watching charts trying to time the perfect "bottom". That's an illusion. Fiat is wasting away. There is no "cashing out". Bitcoin is the exit.

MCL-Jonathan

Welcome! A few things I’d tell my younger self: 1) Learn **why Bitcoin exists** before worrying about trading. Read *The Bitcoin Standard* and spend some time with the Bitcoin whitepaper. 2) Buy Bitcoin on a reputable exchange (I’d pick reputable ones like Binance, Coinbase etc), then move it to a **hardware wallet** once your stack becomes meaningful. Don’t leave large amounts on exchanges. Always move them into hardware/cold wallet (ie ledger). 3) Never store your seed phrase digitally (photos, cloud storage, email, password managers). Write it down or use a metal backup, and keep it somewhere only you can access. 4) Don’t rush into trading. Most beginners would have done better simply buying and holding Bitcoin than trying to outsmart the market. Finally, my approach is simple: **DCA regularly, but become more aggressive during bear markets.** When fear is high and everyone is saying Bitcoin is dead, especially the phase we’re going through right now. That’s usually when I’m buying the hardest. You don’t need to catch the exact bottom, just keep stacking sats and think in 5–10 year timeframes. Be prepared to HODL your bitcoin for at least 1 full 4 year cycles. [Bitcoin Bear Market DCA Playbook](https://youtu.be/JXvr49ECTuo)

Charming-Designer944

Safe is a relative term. Keeping assets on an exchange have its strengths, but also many weaknesses. There is very low risk that you mess up and loose access to.yoir coins. There is a risk that your account is stolen and drained. There is a risk that the exchange is hacked and goes bankrupt There is a risk that you get stuck in KYC/AML regulations. But that risks is very small when you DCA and use an well known exchange that is certified for your region of the world. If you are HODL then the best option is a bit of both DCA on an exchange, and transfer to a personal cold storage every 6 months or at least yearly. The first couple of years its perfectly fine to keep all on the exchange until you have a significant saving that varrants the trouble of setting up and securing a personal cold storage. Transferring from DCA saving more often is counter productive. Increaes both cost and risks.

Drevinth

My strategy is to DCA and HODL. I have panic sold before and regretted it. I now find it's easier to not sell early when I actually have a plan.

FromtheBigO

Congrats! :) Def take a very long and clear minded look at your ultimate plan. Can you afford it lose this money? Can you afford to DCA and if so in what increments. Set up automation. Do you have a cold storage wallet? Vital to proper storage for Bitcoin. Especially if you’re HODL’ing because this is a very high conviction, long game. I have some building that goes to cold storage, but am considering doing all I do contribute to my BTC ETF holding. But that’s a personal matter, as well as some tax advantages and needed CSW upgrade. Do your best to do automation things you can afford, don’t check everyday/follow specific news about BTC etc. you’ll drive yourself crazy! Wishing you and everyone the best of luck!

autonym

So your own net worth may or may not exceed $7k (depending on how much BTC you have, and regardless of your intent to HODL). But the question was why you claim that more than 99% of the population has a net worth below $7k.

Earningsalgo

Honestly I haven’t found any analysis worth it, I just buy and HODL

ThunderBurrn

Nothing, once you realize you've bought low and knowledge you will HODL for a long time, it doesn't matter... 

Equivalent-Banana370

At this point I don’t even care. I look at the price once a day maybe and 🤷‍♂️ The btc isnt earmarked for a lambo or new house or something. It going down to 50k or up to 150k doesn’t affect my standard of living. I am become HODL, watcher of charts

SnooTigers2877

Everyone and I mean everyone I knew said neck yourself if you buy BTC & fast forward 1-2 years, they all ask me how I’m doing and should I buy in now after 15k to 74k, history will repeat but at way higher prices my friend. HODL, the time will come.

TheresNoSecondBest

Do they still HODL bitcoin or they paperhanded it all to the plebs?

sexualsidefx

It felt like nothing. Because all you have to do is HODL

MCL-Jonathan

First of all, never compare yourself to people with 1, 10, or 100 BTC. We all started somewhere. Different life stage. Different life goal etc. Focus on growing your income while consistently stacking sats. That’s far more powerful than trying to cut your way to a whole coin. Personally, I wouldn’t live in my car just to buy more Bitcoin. Protect your health, your career, and your ability to earn. Learn new skills take up new side hustle. All of these will help you to stack more. If we’re still in a bear market, as I believe we are, keep a regular DCA going, and be ready to buy more aggressively during periods of fear, especially around major long-term support like the 200-week moving average. Stack more during bear market stack less during bull market. Have a HODL and swing bag for bitcoin, take profits during bull market on your swing bag. By the time bear market comes, re-enter! Use the Bitcoin 4 years cycle to your advantage! [Bitcoin Bear Market DCA Playbook](https://youtu.be/JXvr49ECTuo)

hetobe

DCA. HODL. Use a fully open source hardware wallet. And make sure you've secured your seed phrase, preferably using a metal backup. This is the way.

TheresNoSecondBest

ETFs like IBIT or HODL. Also, **you're doing Bitcoin wrong**, mate.

BTC-Max1e

HODL king

Ok_Plastic5399

Over the next year you will likely have to hold your nose and HODL through the bear, but long term it should work out nicely.

WorldlyCaramel3793

What's your next move? Cut loss or HODL?

TheresNoSecondBest

Every bear feels shorter. The one starting in 2014 was dragging forever. 2018, two massive drops (2018 & 2020) and one small bull. 2022 was quite short, a new ATH even before the halving. This bear is so far, very weak. People waiting for a lower entry might be surprised. This being said, DCA and HODL is the only thing that works in Bitcoin. That and memes.

Some_Tax2898

I believe in cycles, but I don't trust them. HODL

Zer0boii

Don’t trade.. you already bought at 100-126k, not great trades.. just HODL for 10 years and don’t look at it Although if I were you I would just put like 50/70% into a global accumulation fund once you get back to 100-125k Also I would put a percentage into MSTR & Coinbase Also you need a gold allocation

AstroRoverToday

I HODL and accumulate during bear cycles. During bull runs I use the "extra" fiat to take a nice vacation. It helps me balance investing for my future while also enjoying my hobbies while I'm generally healthier than I will be later in life. I HODL since I don't want the stress of trying to time the market. Less stress = longer health span (all other variables kept the same).

bigmo1312

HODL

MCL-Jonathan

True. Maximise your income follow by stacking more Bitcoin. Especially during the Bitcoin bear market period (right now)! HODL it for at least 1 cycle you will see how much Bitcoin appreciated

Boring-red

Nobody knows for sure is the thing. I’m not a HODL. I stack aggressively when it’s dipping then whenever it hits a number I’ll stack a lot slower and eventually when it hits a number I’ve decided upon I’ll sell a good portion. Keep that money aside invest it elsewhere. Then when we hit a bear cycle start aggressively buying again. I’ve done this cycle since 2019. I haven’t timed it perfect at the top but every time I’ve sold I’ve been really happy with the profit I was able to take. So it works for me. If I tried to be perfect I’d end up going insane from the stress.

Krobarred

Yes! HODL

MCL-Jonathan

Great conviction. I respect that. But don’t disappear for 10 years. 😄 I’d still manage **two bags**: **A HODL bag** you never touch. **A swing bag** you gradually DCA into during bear markets and DCA out of during bull markets. The goal isn’t just to own Bitcoin, it’s to **grow your Bitcoin stack** over multiple 4-year cycles. Make the bag bigger, not just wait longer. ⏰₿ [Bitcoin Bear Market DCA Playbook](https://youtu.be/JXvr49ECTuo)

Least-Situation-3477

don't do leverage folks. i always knew it was stupid and to just HODL. but i got greedy, made money then lost even more. fuck me...

FitCompetition1804

I believe in Bitcoin long term and I also believe the 4 year cycle is real, until it isn’t. So far the 4 year cycle is tracking per usual. So I plan to use the bear market drops of the 4 year cycle to accumulate. What I’m less comfortable with is using the 4 year cycle bull market to sell. Besides timing the exact top, which is almost impossible, what if it doesn’t drop to levels expected as I wait to re-enter the following year? In that scenario I’ve just put myself in a position where I’ll have less BTC than if I just HODL’d and stacked harder on the drops. That’s a gamble I’m not willing to take.

Similar-World-6668

The true HODL mindset isn't just about avoiding sales, it's about the conviction to keep accumulating via DCA through all the noise and doubt. That long-term focus is everything.

IBAN-IBON64

HODL BTC only 💪 comme Satoshi

__Ken_Adams__

Go ahead & try it yourself. Many of us have tried it and it only solidified our conviction that HODL & DCA are the better option. It's not as easy as it sounds but if you want to prove it to yourself & most likely underperforn the HODLers be my guest.

NewAmerica2025

It amazes me how many people just don't get it. It's called HODL. You don't sell, the price goes up. If everyone sells, well, you see the results. Same Bitcoin, same anything.

OldUniversity9799

Hitting the refresh button like it’s going to change in a few mins 😂 HODL

Hacken_io

Nothing changes. Those who HODLed it will continue to HODL

NewAmerica2025

This. The value of bitcoin can only go up if we collectively agree to HODL no matter what. With all of us holding and never selling, we have the potential for it to be worth millions.

Romsel87

Yeah HODL till retirement and than Steak N Shake all day loooooooong errrday

Time_Basis2535

Break off 30% maybe every five years other than that HODL

heisindc

The silk road Wired article turned a lot of people onto bitcoin. I dodnt do drugs, but still bought some because I thought it would be cool to trade worldwide for goods. I sold some for various reasons but still held a bit because HODL became a thing. And, like every HODLer, I love to remind my family and friends about the price, even now, when I told them to buy at $2000, $20000, etc. I just didnt have any money at the time....

dav3therav3

HODL in for the long, bought some more at £48k to top it up. Hopefully we get another cycle to see my stack rise again. Or maybe the institution capital might keep playing the game to squeeze Coinbase and Strategy into oblivion!

BarnacleOwn604

1. Buy BTC on any exchange 2. Educate yourself on what you’re buying, what a seed phrase is, what self custody is, what cold storage is 3. Send to cold storage 4. Secure your seed phrase somewhere safe and offline 5. DCA what you can afford weekly or monthly and don’t worry about selling or liquidating 6. HODL 7. Continue HODL’ing

RevenantHaunter13

Start learning how to use it. The moment you understand how this thing works, you realize it is priceless. Money won't even be able to buy it anymore 10 to 20 years from now, it's that valuable. That's how. Just DCA and forget that you even are buying it regularly. Put in cold storage as it gets bought and HODL and you'll be golden.

CryptSander

HODL

OutlandishnessLimp25

HODL

Foreign-Concept-1184

Excellent article. Few will take the time to study it and then apply the deep truths of "scarcity"... Glad I stopped by to read it. HODL

AgentSmith2077

HODL untill 2029 then re-evaluate what to do.

AddordableRep865

Set stop losses or be a true HODL

BSP9000

I bought in 2022, sold last year, and bought again this year. As a trader, the volatility and semi-predictable cycles are a plus. I have no idea if the long term returns will be better than SPY so I don’t HODL. If I had to pick one, I’d buy stocks instead.

__KubaS__

I heard about HODL HODL did you heard about it?

Myc0n1k

I own restaurants and yes. You can definitely DCA with bitcoin and make a killing when you HODL long term.

WatchDecent2822

The knowledgeable people told everyone to HODL while they dumped during the last ATH. They'll be back when the next hype cycle starts in a year or two.

SlooperDoop

I'm 58. 3 or 4 times in my live I've started over with nothing. Divorce, just wanted a fresh start, Laid off and ate Ramen for a couple years getting a degree, etcetera. Financial you have zero impact... (assuming you were HODL'ing and not daily spending). You just keep doing as you've been doing...all your daily expenses have been covered and still are. Mentally...it will help if you do a lot of research into crypto security. You will be comfortable investing again when you trust your of tech level enough. OR just invest in more secure methods (ie ETF).

No-Wrap3568

I hope you won't use your hot wallet to HODL because it's definitely not safe. For day to day spending, small trades, it's good. That being said, Sparrow should be a good option for you

eltoniq

Do the meme where you HODL but you’re a skeleton, cause you be dead. Haha. Doesn’t stop people from HODLing forever though.

No_Investigator3369

I was about to give this a HODL high five but I think you're right.

ShittingOutPosts

Forced HODL? Or were they able to convince you to hand it all over, assuming you still had some when you were arrested?

disruptioncoin

Yes. Then I started my own bitcoin-tangential business and earned several dozen bitcoin for myself, only to then spend them all long before it reached current price levels. Never making any of those mistakes again. Buy and hodl. No matter the price, just fucking keep buying. Don't try to time the market. Don't "take profits" that are bullshit compared to the 10x that has happened over and over given enough time and will happen again. Don't treat it like savings you can dip into to treat yourself. JUST BUY AND HODL GOD DAMNIT. EVERY PAYCHECK, whatever is left - just buy and hodl.

Applecity82

I take profits now. I don’t believe in the HODL mentality. What goes up must come down. Maybe I miss some profits if I would like f waited longer to sell. It I can’t time the top. I take profits and buy back when we go back to a bear market

FizzyWizzy369

You’d kick yourself if you sold and years later when it reaches a million. Just buy some more and HODL.

Sparky90032

The shakeout is REAL! HODL forever ♾️

RevolutionSerious132

Because HODL!

BlyG

Classic maxi move: HODL through the top like a legend, then spend nights doing regret math like a degenerate trader. Diamond hands, glass emotions. Just DCA the pain away, king — therapy is for fiat cucks.

captainorganic07

HODL logic can be so stupid sometimes. Take profits. Don’t blame yourself, this subs culture may change.

ChronicBurnout3

If you could time buying and selling anything with consistency youd be a billionaire in a week DCA, HODL is the only proven method

NoBrosCrypto

Just remember that when you sell the top, you pay tax. I did the maths. Let’s say I bought $10K worth at BTC $25K and made 5X by selling the absolute top $125K. So now I have $50K and made $40K net profit. $12-15K in tax. So now I have $35K total left to buy back in. If I just held, my BTC dropped in value to $25K since it’s about half the high. I’m only $10K ahead with a whole lot of risk if I timed it incorrectly. Then with the $35K I have to time the absolute bottom whilst being completely out of BTC. Would I have held out to $60K?? Or would I have jumped back in at $80K? In which case I’d be about on par having not sold anything. Always easy in hindsight but the reality is different. HODL is easier and less stressful. Hope the above gives you comfort.

Gears6

> I keep replaying it in my head. I had chances to sell high last year and just... didn't. Told myself I was in it for the long haul, that timing the top was a fool's game, all the usual HODL logic. And on one level I still believe that. But some nights I do the math on what I left on the table and it stings. I am still a Bitcoin maxi but I'm constantly thinking I could have doubled my BTC in a single year. Like anything, you learn. I've done that a few times with stock. One time, I earned $400k on a stock. Didn't take the gain, and figured I'm in for the long haul. Saw the stock shrink to a fraction of that, and now I'm taking a gain of $150k instead many years later. Learning from that, I now take some gain off the table, and go after more lucrative opportunities. With that said, you cannot agonize over something you don't know. You could've sold the BTC at $80k and at $120k you could've said damn, I lost out on 50% growth! 👀 So the rule I have is, buy things when they seem low (based on whatever metric you use since BTC is hard to evaluate) and sell some when they seem overpriced. Then also don't solely rely on a single source of investment, especially something as risky as BTC. In other words, I sold some stocks recently and bought some BTC. I'm contrarian.

Phenix621

Stop being a bitch and HODL.

HopefulChampion3150

Let me give you my perspective. what i regret is not buying at 15k because i thought it was going to go down to 8-10k… this was less than 5 years ago and if you look at current valuation it is more than 4x. Dont regret buying, regret investing money you cannot afford to HODl cuz if you are gonna HODL there’s is no selling at the top.

Dapper-Bee490

Ofc m8. HODL

year2039nuclearwar

Timing the top, fool's game, usual HODL logic. To me, I suspend all that for cryptocurrency, the volatility is too high and especially when the 4-year cycle is as predictable as it is. The cycle is probably just all us degens making sure it happens in the dates it's meant to happen. I like to think we make our own destiny.

Sparky90032

No fucks Given! HODL’ing forever ♾️

Adventurous-Soil528

I’m not a bitcoin maxi so that’s probably why HODL ing doesn’t affect me as much. I have no problem busting holding through everything. I don’t even think about the price of bitcoin. I just auto DCA every Friday. I own stocks/etfs through my brokerage 401k, Roth, and brokerage.

FuckSteveHuffman3

What are you talking about? It's not wrong to HODL bitcoin. 

rizzlejee

I only started buying at that point. And now I'm continuing to DCA all the way down and will continue all the way up too. And HODL forever until I can use my BTC to pay for my expenses

DonTheHolder

Don't overthink. HODL. Remember the pizzas.

eltoniq

Shit all this time I've been told to HODL. WTF do I do now? I've done my research. Just tell me, buy or sell?

Electronic_Quote399

Assuming you're correct about all that, no it isn't the same. The post is talking about $trump official. What he did is the opposite of a rug pull. The family as whole control about 80% of the supply and thats the same amount they had on launch. Since so much of the supply was locked up, the price went sky high, then crashed just as violently. What they should have done is sold off some of the supply in chunks to suppress the initial rally. Since they got greedy and just wanted to HODL, the early Asians who sold the peak are the ones who rugged the trumps. Keep 80% of your supply locked up, your coin is gonna crash because of thin liquidity when others sell it.

DrSpeckles

Yea I reckon you might be right. I doubt BTC will be worth much at all, its just a useless HODL coin and if thats what you are after youd invest elsewhere. Has to be one on which lots of other things are built. SOL or possibly ETH.

Sausas

permament HODL

ProfessionalLink61

I started DCA at $100k and has been tough to continue, definitely hasn’t paid off yet but stay the course. I’m down quite a bit but HODL!

YouCanJustSayNewYork

This bro is probably a scammer. He keeps plugging his portfolio and pretending to HODL

Cool-Mountain-1811

!!!HODL!!!

trogdor1234

HODL until you sell it for more dividends.

thelonghand

Is this fake? No fuckin way he’d sell and certainly not that much or it’s over… HODL THE LINE!

Automated__Alpha

HODL

IllustriousPie5224

Pre-committing exits is the only way I stopped panic-selling too, wish more people talked about this instead of just "HODL."

IAmSomewhatDamaged

Damnit. See, I don’t make a ton of money at my job. I do just FINE for where I live, but nothing great…. So I’ve always just accumulated since I started (lucky timing in which I bought a little chunk in late 2022 when it dipped below $17k). Since then, I just slowly and steadily DCA. I’ve always latched on to the “only buy and HODL long-term.” I’m up a decent amount, but I WISH I would’ve cashed at least half of it out when we were around $120k. I always feel like it’s safer that way, especially because I don’t have a ton of extra money to take more chances. But I think I’m going to be ready to sell at least half of my BTC this next Bull Run.

MCL-Jonathan

My approach is a little different. I separate my portfolio into a **HODL bag** and a **SWING bag**. For buying, I use **two DCA strategies**: **1/ Schedule DCA** using a **bell-shaped capital deployment**, with the largest allocations in the middle of the bear market. My current Schedule DCA is planned to finish around **Q1 2027**. **2/ Dip DCA**, where I deploy extra capital only when Bitcoin has major corrections during the bear market. Anything failed to be deployment from dip DCA capital will get back to the schedule DCA bucket next year onwards. As Bitcoin starts trending higher, I gradually stop buying, build up cash, and wait patiently. **For me, it’s still too early to take profits for sure.** When the time comes, I’ll use the same principle on the way out: **the way you DCA in should also be the way you DCA out.** Don’t try to nail the exact top. Scale out gradually into strength and euphoria, just like you scaled in during fear. **Buy in fear. Sell into euphoria. Rinse and repeat.** That’s the a good playbook to follow. [Bitcoin Bear Market DCA Playbook:](https://youtu.be/JXvr49ECTuo)

Jealous_Diamond_4321

honestly just stick to the blind DCA if you already HODL, the mental energy of trying to time tops is not worth it for most people i tried the whole sell at ATH buy back lower thing once and ended up just watching it run without me, never again

Speedevee

I think now’s a good time. Maybe spread your purchases to be once a month for the rest of the year. Be prepared to take profits in 3 years or HODL forever.

MCL-Jonathan

I agree, especially during the bear market. This is when I’m stacking the hardest. But I also believe it’s important to understand Bitcoin’s rhythm. Accumulate during the bear, then gradually take profits when euphoria returns near the cycle highs. That’s how I approach building wealth over multiple Bitcoin 4 years cycles. Did that with my HODL and SWING bags concept. [Bitcoin Bear Market DCA Playbook](https://youtu.be/JXvr49ECTuo)

Squeiner

Nobody is against this. (Also you were looking for "averse", not "adverse") People are against the idea that anyone has the ability to predict the market with enough accuracy to get it right consistently, so they caution against attempting this tactic given its obvious risks, instead favoring a tried and true, proven and simple way to accumulate wealth over time.  Look up the origin of "HODL" and you will have your answer. Pit pat piffy wing wong wang...

Business_Office_7978

All very good points cheers! No.3 I wasn’t thinking about that!! HODL on retirement account makes perfect sense at 30% CAGR.

Zombie4141

This is the right answer. Family, health, job loss, bills stacking up. You can only HODL if you’re within a budget and have no expensive emergencies.