Reddit Posts
China’s Financial Giant Files Application for Bitcoin Spot ETF in Hong Kong
Inverse Jim Cramer ETF Shut Down After Poor Performance Leaves Investors In The Hole
Inverse Jim Cramer ETF Shut Down After Poor Performance Leaves Investors In The Hole
MSTR or miners for leveraged play? (and how is the halving supposed to be bullish for miners??)
BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF Volume Topping GBTC Today, Signaling Market Shift
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF has surpassed holdings worth over $2 billion, equivalent to more than 52,000 BTC.
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF has surpassed holdings worth over $2 billion, equivalent to more than 52,000 BTC.
Hong Kong SFC Welcomes First Spot Bitcoin ETF Application
The Global Landscape of AI vs Bitcoin: Trends, Interest, and Growth Outlook
UK looks increasingly isolated in its anti-crypto ETF stance
Large Chinese fund files for spot Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong
How would you invest in crypto if you had a million in fiat, sterling or dollar
Harvest Fund Applies for Spot Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong
I am bullish on ETHEREUM ETF. Wallstreet and Institutional investors will invest in an Ethereum ETF because Ethereum is GREEN and does not pollute the environment, It is ESG compliant. Past Events that will make Ethereum ETF a success.
Analysts expect Charles Schwab to make a Bitcoin ETF play
Bitcoin ETF advertisement all over Boston subways
Big Day Tomorrow: Google Likely to Start Allowing Bitcoin Spot ETF Ads
The last deadline for an Ethereum ETF approval for the SEC is in May 2024, expect a stronger pump than the months before the BTC ETF approval
My last post was deleted: I heard you guys loud and clear
Why BTC will be sideways or downward for months..
ETF's price drop explained, and why the growing optimism!
BlackRock’s IBIT Hits $2B Inflows, Google Greenlights ETF Ads
Ripple Makes Strategic Hiring In Preparation For XRP ETF
Question about ETF -- are BTC traded or do they tend to be held?
Is there a good database of publicly known wallet addresses?
Is Bitcoin Finally Finding Firm Ground as Grayscale’s BTC ETF Outflows Calm Down?
Is Bitcoin Finally Finding Firm Ground as Grayscale’s BTC ETF Outflows Calm Down?
Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF Is Shutting Down with a Loss of 15%
DePIN projects have highest growth potential in 2024 / 2025 and DePIN ETF is most likely to be approved in the future by the SEC.
DePIN projects have highest growth potential in 2024/2025 and DePIN ETF is most likely to be approved in the future by the SEC.
Spot Ether ETF Applications Decisions Delayed by SEC
Coinbase is the custodian of nearly ALL Bitcoin ETFs. Coinbase insurance covers a loss of $320mm, while Coinbase already holds over 2 BILLION in Bitcoin. 💣
SEC Delays Spot Ethereum ETF Decisions
Here's the New SEC Deadline for BlackRock's Spot Ethereum ETF
Bitcoin ETF Data: Net withdrawals from the #BitcoinETFs are around 80 million. The bottom line drains for the fourth day in a row.
ELI5: GBTC and dumping from FTX and other bankruptcies
The SEC’s Bitcoin ETF Approvals Have Forever Altered The Global Monetary System
The SEC’s Bitcoin ETF Approvals Have Forever Altered The Global Monetary System
The SEC Bitcoin ETF Approvals Forever Alter The Global Monetary System
Do you still believe in Buy the FUD and sell the News?
Official on-chain addresses for ETF holdings verification
New SEC Deadline for BlackRock's Spot Ethereum ETF Announced - Daily Coin Post
Binance Report Unveils Crypto Market Insights
Bitwise Becomes First Spot Bitcoin ETF Provider to Provide Wallet Address
The SEC extends its decision on BlockRock's spot Ethereum ETF proposal to March, allowing more time for evaluation.
SEC Extends BlackRock’s Spot Ether ETF Decision to March
More dangerous to hold Sh&t coins right now … Greyscale selling pressure might bring down BTC price due to liquidity crunch
To everyone who told me to dump all my money in and not DCA before ETF Approval!!
SEC delays BlackRock's Ethereum spot ETF to March
Is SEC’s Bitcoin ETF Green Light a Watershed Moment for Crypto Industry?
Is SEC’s Bitcoin ETF Green Light a Watershed Moment for Crypto Industry?
$515 million came out of GBTC yesterday for a total of -$3.96 billion in outflows since converting to an ETF. Newborn 9 saw +$409 million flow in. Net outflows in total for yesterday were -$106 million. --- Bloomberg's James Seyffart. Hence, GBTC selling maybe near the end. GLTA!!!
Crypto.com is now 9th largest exchange by spot volume, with more spot volume than Kraken and Kucoin
Bitcoin ETF derby in near real-time…Shows total btc held by each ETF, excl GBTC
SEC Commissioner: Ethereum ETF approvals won’t be same as Bitcoin
Isn’t the amount sold by greyscale small compared to the amount they hold? Shouldn’t we expect most of the rest to be sold too?
I'd be surprised if anyone that has owned BTC since pre 2017 is suddenly concerned by recent price action.
Is the fact that there are a bitcoin ETF such a milestone?
Bullish: Bitcoin set for supply shock as ETF buys surge and halving nears
Despite Grayscale's sell-off the total amount of BTC in all ETF's are increasing
Despite Grayscale's sell-off the total amount of BTC in all ETF's are increasing each day
Despite Grayscale's sell-off the total amount of BTC in all ETF's are increasing each day
Can Someone Explain How Bitcoin ETFs Work?
Amount of BTC Held by Bitcoin Spot ETF Companies Has Been Revealed: Here's How Much BlackRock and Others Hold
Bitcoin Tumbles Below $39K, Shaking Market Confidence as Grayscale ETF Shareholders Continue to Exit Positions
Bitcoin Tumbles Below $39K, Shaking Market Confidence as Grayscale ETF Shareholders Continue to Exit Positions
LMAO 40k support lever held for over 6 weeks into ETF FOMO
Mentions
The difference lies in the systematic inflow. Corporate treasuries make one-time buys; ETF capital is a predictable, multi-year buy-and-hold allocation from millions of wealth management clients. That slow, constant flow is what builds the foundational bid wall, not short-term speculation.
One possible scenario I see (although isn’t a classic ‘rug pull’) is a company that owns an ETF collapsing, and it taking time on the order of years for the holders of the ETF to be made whole based on the value at the time of collapse. This isn’t a value going to 0 scenario, but misses out on potential upside. Also it’s presumably more likely of a company collapsing in a bear than a bull, which increases the likelihood of missing out on upside while the capital is frozen. Just my two cents
The majority retail layman is not gonna take it as far cold storage IMO. ETF’s are more beginner friendly
Eh, not much different honestly than countries buying or major publicly traded companies buying. ETF isn’t some guaranteed inflow. If the market gets spooked it will dump fast.
BTC, ETH, and SOL are probably the best mix for someone new. XRP might do well someday, but the others already have liquidity, adoption, and now even ETF exposure. I keep mine on Nexo so I can earn yield and borrow when the market dips
The banks are really irrelevant, really. They start loving BTC at the instant moment when they invent some way to skim fees from their customers with it. Like Blackrock did 180 degree turnaround after the ETF launch. The bankers and the companies running these ATMs are pretty much the same. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if some bank buys these ATM operators at some point.
Would you rather there be no ETFs? What price do you think BTC would be then? ETF means institutions have given Bitcoin the green flag as money. It's no longer a "scam"
IBIT is an ETF that will only buy BTC when there are net creations of the ETF, and sell BTC when there are net redemptions. That's driven by IBIT investors, not by Blackrock themselves. For some reason people treat BTC purchases/sells in IBIT and other ETFs as if they represent some bullish/bearish call by the sponsor when they're passive ETFs that simply act systematically based on the activity of the underlying investors.
Critical difference now is the mechanics of the new variable. Past 'new money' was speculative, but the current ETF flow is systematic, buy-and-hold allocation from wealth managers. It's a fundamental change to the supply side dynamics, not just new narrative money.
Strategy bought 390 BTC for $43.4 million just 2 days ago: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltf8d808d9b8cebd37/blt5d53967701adc5e7/68fec8cf58694f22dc2c67b8/form-8-k_10-27-2025.pdf Strategy bought 168 BTC for $18.8 million 9 days ago: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltf8d808d9b8cebd37/blt2829fd4822c1bf78/68f599bf69003d69ba0d7492/form-8-k_10-20-2025.pdf Strategy bought 220 BTC for $27.2 million 16 days ago: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltf8d808d9b8cebd37/bltf1d894170dc21720/68ec73beb5c8cb623d14dcb4/strategy-acquires-220-btc-and-achieves-btc-yield-of-25-9-ytd-now-holds-640250-btc_10-13-2025.pdf Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF only buys BTC when people buy shares of IBIT. Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF only sells BTC when people sell shares of IBIT.
I don’t understand the need for this constant ETF preaching. I think this is a know your audience kind of situation. If you’re in this sub you probably are trying to understand or understand. It’s been stated many times over ‘not your keys…’ All that being said ETF’s are an option that can be used with the understanding that it is a risk. People using ETF’s have their reasons and it’s a risk they are choosing to take.
Incorrect. When, not if, the next hard fork occurs, the US Govt will mandate which fork the ETFs must go with and ETF holders will have zero say in the matter. This risk is likely spelled out in your ETFs prospectus. I predict this announcement will be made at 4:05pm EST on a Friday after market close. This way, all ETF shareholders will be unable to sell their shares for 3 days while their forked ~~Bitcoin~~ shitcoin crashes.
It's a great idea until it's not. It's only a matter of time until one of the custodians holding the bitcoin for an ETF experiences an insider or external attack, negligent loss, etc. The question then will be how does the ETF manager treat its shareholders? Will they be immediately remediated or do they spend years in a class action suit only to get back a tiny fraction of the holding value at the time of the loss? The latter is almost a certainty when we look at how customers of defunct exchanges have been treated. Have you read the fineprint of Grayscale's Trust in the event they lose the underlying asset? Holding bitcoin poses its own risk of your own negligence or an external threat, but it's something you also feel a lot more control over, and it's unlike any other class of wealth in existence in that regard. All other bearer assets come with physicality that is a lot harder to move and protect.
How do you envision an ETF “being rugged”
Bitcoin is meant to be peer to peer electronic cash as stated in the TITLE of its whitepaper. And all I’m reading here is ETF’s, IRA, dollars, returns, yields, taxes and everything that has NOTHING to do with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a financial revolution and exit from fiat. It’s INSANE how mentioning this here will now get you downvoted… This sub has completely lost the plot.
Simple: you cannot hold plain BTC in 401k and have no other options but to own the ETF if you want exposure to it.
Just be mindful the floor % won't be as low as before as the ETF buyers do provide a bit of stability. Good luck bro. I did that in 2013, but then never rebought because I was literally broke asf from 2014-2020. Instead of buying real estate post Covid I should have just bought some BTC and chilled on vacation
Supply isn't really shrinking that much though. The supply on market has changed from 3M to 2.4M bitcoins from previous lows in 2023 to today. Which seems extreme and may indicate things on a macro level, but what happens in the short term when people dump as they typically do post halving? Tradeable supply will increase, price will drop. IRA investors do provide some stability, but it's not like they can't sell their ETF and get a different asset. Current price * current supply at that price = $258.5 trillion suppressing the market. We have a LONG way to go before that point. (Math not exact as price would rise if more are bought but hopefully you get my point). Right now it seems like retail is buying but not fast enough. What will change is when there is crypto banking that actually works or government adoption for their fed reserves. Governments aren't going to FOMO into this peak unless Trump or China makes a big move here. I'm just seeing an article from France that plans to buy 420K BTC, over the next 7 to 8 years. This move is also telegraphed and we will be able to see it in advance play out. Others will do the same, but it's likely we see our retail drop to 65-70k and governments will drive the next bull run. I don't think we see as low of a drop just like we have seen a lower ceiling. There is way more stability from ETF buyers.
Go past a Gold shop these days and there are still lines of people outside, ETF's sure as shit haven't stopped people buying the real thing. BTC will be just fine, ETF's or not.
I disagree. Cold stored is best if you can do it properly. ETF'S are fine for what they are...they will not be "rug pulled".
Spot can be hacked/stolen or lost way, waaaaay easier than an ETF. I own both.
I can recommend the ETF called "StudyBitcoin"
FBTC is Fidelity’s bitcoin ETF. They hold it in cold storage - as in not on an exchange which represents added risk.
Echoing what others have said, your future isn't ruined. This was an important life lesson. Crypto being highly unregulated right now is full of this kind of thing, unfortunately. Even BTC has seen massive drops in price (I buy through an ETF and whenever I do, the broker forces me to read this paragraph on how it's highly speculative and could go to zero, lol). But yeah scammers like the ones you've described should be in prison imo. Thank you for sharing something *real* on this site.
Whenever the Democrats finally vote to open the government there are over 100 Crypto ETFs pending approval and it will create crypto as a whole new sector of the stock market. Every crypto with an ETF will then gain momentum especially the lower cap ones with limited supply like LTC and BCH
ETF THE FAKE WORTHLESS BITCOIN What doesn't belong to you!👍⭐
People actually believed TradFi and Institutional investors would be rushing to buy random shitcoins. I hope we can put the ETF hopium to rest after yesterday: - Litecoin ETF did $1.5 Million volume on first day of trading - HBAR ETF did $8.5 Million volume on first day of trading - Solana staking ETF did $55 Miilion volume on first day of trading For comparison: - *"Bitcoin ETF volumes eclipse $4.5B on first day of trading"* - *"Spot Ethereum ETFs generate over $1 Billion in trading volume on first day"*
It is a mistake to view bitcoin ownership as a spectrum, where on one end you self custody, and at the other you entrust your bitcoins to a custodian such as an ETF. These two things are black and white. With a custodian, you do not own the bitcoins, and they can be taken from you at any time, for any reason, or none at all.
All that tells me is it's a GREAT time to buy the right altcoins... Binance is only suppressing altcoins because they are fighting VCs and token unlocks, getting them to sell as low as possible, in the meantime retail and the sentiment get demoralized leading to capitulation because altcoins are dead. It's literally just been a whale battle all cycle. But exchanges don't truly cash in until they lower float and pump token prices. Green is what attracts retail, retail does not cause the rallies, retail gets distributed on. Buy when everyone says altcoins are a scam and that they're dead and retail is never coming back. Because that's the best part of that fear mongering, RETAIL IS NOT NEEDED. This is why altseason “almost” breaks out and then dies. It’s not failed demand. It’s deliberate capping until supply overhang is absorbed. Right now VC is still dumping, smart money won’t let them dump into strength. So they keep liquidity shallow and ceilings low. I can guarantee we see a 18-25% OTHERS market dominance again by 2027. We're currently around 6%. And even if something like covid hits between then it won't wreck dominance, it didn't last time. The bigger risk at this point is holding Bitcoin over ETH or other quality altcoins. The exact opposite of what you would think due to sentiment. I promise you altcoins aren't going anywhere. ETF and RWA will bring in so much fomo before you know it we'll be seeing the opposite sentiment and how Bitcoin dominance won't be able to recover blah blah blah. Emotional sheep.
There is a reason Blackrock said they had no interest in launching ETFs for random altcoins - Litecoin ETF did $1.5 Million volume on first day of trading - HBAR ETF did $8.5 Million volume on first day of trading - Solana staking ETF did $55 Miilion volume on first day of trading - *"Bitcoin ETF volumes eclipse $4.5B on first day of trading"* - *"Spot Ethereum ETFs generate over $1 Billion in trading volume on first day"*
Bitcoin ETF Holding price down!⭐ The ETF is a real stone around real Bitcoin's neck!⭐
Post is by: Apraemio_ofc and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1oiycli/crypto_market_insights/ GM, APRA Fam, Welcome back to Crypto Insights, your weekly guide to the boldest moves and biggest shifts across the digital asset space. Let’s break it down: 1️⃣ **Is the long-awaited crypto rally finally here?** 🚀 The long-anticipated crypto rally may finally be starting. The United States and China have taken major steps toward creating a mutually beneficial trade framework, easing global market tensions. In response, Bitcoin has climbed back above $115,000, Ethereum is holding near $4,100, and Solana has once again crossed the $200 mark. The crypto market has been positioned for escalation rather than relief, meaning even modest positive news can now trigger strong upward momentum across major assets. 2️⃣ **MegaETH launches its long-awaited sale** 💎 Between October 27–30, MegaETH kicked off one of the most anticipated auctions of the year. The event, held on the Ethereum blockchain, offers 10 billion MEGA tokens available for purchase exclusively in USDT. The low starting price was no coincidence, the team’s goal is to provide fair access and establish a committed, long-term community rather than quick speculation. With strong demand and growing visibility, MegaETH could become a noteworthy player in the Ethereum ecosystem. 3️⃣ **Japanese banks move toward crypto** 🏦 Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is considering allowing subsidiaries of major banking groups to offer cryptocurrency trading services. This would enable bank-affiliated firms to buy, hold, and trade crypto assets directly. If approved, the move could mark a major step toward integrating traditional finance with digital assets in Japan opening the door for broader institutional participation and accelerating crypto adoption across Asia. 4️⃣ **What to watch next** 👀 • AAVE: Ongoing discussions around a $50M buyback program to strengthen long-term token value. • MON: The project’s first early airdrop is scheduled for October 28. • ETH: BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF staking program reaches its next key milestone on October 30. • SOL: The first spot Solana ETF launched on October 27, marking a major milestone for institutional Solana exposure. We’ll catch you next week with more insights and updates from the ever-evolving crypto market. — **Team APRA** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
You're delusional. 2023 was pretty much up only lol Bottom was in November '22 at 15k, in March BTC was close to 30k thanks to regional banks fiasco. From then it drifted and the last quarter of 2023 were front running ETF, the last time BTC was free. Too bad it got hijacked on November 19, 2024 with the introduction of IBIT options. Hijacked coin, paper bitcoin, bona fide shitcoin.
tldr; BlackRock CEO Larry Fink described crypto and gold as 'assets of fear,' driven by concerns over government debt and financial security. Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative conference, Fink highlighted fears of asset debasement and weakening purchasing power, particularly in the U.S. He noted crypto's evolution from skepticism to being seen as an alternative investment akin to gold. With BlackRock managing $12.5 trillion in assets, including a major Bitcoin ETF, Fink's views influence global markets amid growing institutional adoption of crypto. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
The main danger with an ETF is very simple. At any moment, your broker, the ETF issuer, or any entity that has authority over either of those, can freeze your funds. And of course, ETF units are really just an IOU for a traditional financial product for which there is zero verifiability. It's all based on trust.
ETFs may also be advantageous for real estate mortgages if you can find a bank who will approve an asset depletion loan. If your coins are in cold storage then they're far less likely to approve you than if you're holding an ETF in Fidelity or whatever. I'm not recommending doing that, but for some people it may be beneficial.
> "Netflix sending DVDs in the mail" early. 🤭 Think we’re barely above 1%, right? Do the institutional investors and ETF buyers count towards adoption in any real sense?
ETF is a lot more dangerous than self-custody. The only benefit of ETF is the possibility of tax sheltering.
You can borrow against it with ETF
There’s a reason most BTC coiners said they have went ETF.. Either true or not, knowing they hold the keys is dangerous enough
It was the [biggest ETF launch of the year volume wise](https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1983265686991581385) but it's been expected to launch all year and DATs came out frontrunning the excitement and crypto is the lagging market right now so it feels subdued everywhere.
> after BTC and ETH, HBAR is the next getting an ETF There is a reason Blackrock said they wouldn't launch random Altcoin ETFs - HBAR ETF did $8 Million volume on first day of trading - *"Spot Bitcoin ETF volumes eclipse $4.5B on first day of trading"* - *"Spot Ethereum ETFs generate over $1 Billion in trading volume on first day"*
I wonder why Blackrock had zero interest in random Altcoin ETFs? - HBAR ETF did $8 Million on first day of trading - *"Spot Bitcoin ETF volumes eclipse $4.5B on first day of trading"* - *"Spot Ethereum ETFs generate over $1 billion in trading volume on first day"*
Assuming you don't know much about it, why do you think 2040 is too late? You say the return won't be much higher than a stock ETF, or at least not very worth it?
> way early BTC or even ETH ETF launches did. That is because we now have more data and understanding of its ETF flow. Plus, REX SOL ETF has been live for months now. You could see REX ramp up inflow up to the SOL ETF launch. The thing is, without BlackRock pumping billions, it is really hard for these ETFs to move 100B+ market cap based on ETH's flow.
But even with a high concentration of ownership- blackrock isn’t owning bitcoin, they are stocking reserves for their ETF people are buying, and even if they are, the inability to control the programming of the money still is the main point. They can’t increase the cap through lobbying like they do for lobbying congressmen on debt ceiling negotiations
Post is by: Real-Craft-1984 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/VirtualsProtocol/comments/1ohqfw9/datadriven_virtual_analysis_rotation_setup/ Sharing institutional-grade analysis on VIRTUAL's current positioning for the community. --- ### Current State **Price:** $0.89 (-82.7% from $5.07 January peak) **Market cap:** $585M **Revenue:** ~$26M annualized ($182k/24h, $495k/7d) **Supply:** 100% unlocked (major structural advantage) --- ### The Rotation Pattern (Week 1) **7-day performance:** - AIXBT: +59.2% (small cap) - VIRTUAL: +16.4% (large cap) - AI16Z: +3.5% **This is textbook small-cap-leads behavior:** Historical crypto rotations show consistent patterns—small caps pump first (easier percentage math), then capital rotates to large-cap leaders 2-4 weeks later. **Mathematical reality:** - AIXBT $55M → $165M = $110M inflow for 3× - VIRTUAL $585M → $1.75B = $1.16B inflow for same 3× Speculation enters via small caps, then seeks "safer" established plays. **Current assessment:** Week 1 of potential rotation. Historical patterns suggest 2-4 week timeline before large-cap phase. --- ### The Unlock Advantage (Underappreciated) **VIRTUAL: 100% of 1B supply circulating** Most alts face scheduled unlock events causing -20-40% drawdowns as locked supply hits markets. VIRTUAL eliminated this structural risk entirely. **What this means:** - No unlock FUD - No surprise dilution - One major recurring dump catalyst removed - Holders competing on fundamentals, not unlock calendars This is a significant edge vs most alts with 30-60% locked supplies releasing over 1-3 years. --- ### October 24 Robotics Pivot **Announced expansion:** Digital AI agents → Physical robotics applications **Potential impact:** TAM expansion beyond software-only into physical-world automation **Validation window:** Beta metrics expected mid-November **What to watch:** - Deployment statistics - Usage data (not just announcement hype) - Partnership announcements - Revenue attribution (can robotics generate fees?) **Bear case:** Pure narrative play with weak execution **Bull case:** Legitimate differentiation vs competitors stuck in digital-only Mid-November data will clarify which scenario is reality. --- ### The BTC.D Reality (Most Important Variable) **Current:** 59.91% = Bitcoin Season **The iron law that overrides everything:** - BTC.D >54% = Bitcoin Season = alts don't work - BTC.D <54% = Transition begins - BTC.D <52% = Confirmed altseason - BTC.D <48% = Peak euphoria **Why this matters more than VIRTUAL's quality:** Protocol could deliver perfect robotics metrics, announce major partnerships, post record revenue—and still trade sideways if BTC.D stays elevated. This isn't about VIRTUAL's fundamentals. It's about capital flow regimes. **Timeline projection:** - December-January: Possible transition (54-56% range) - January-February: Possible confirmation (<52%) - Could extend significantly longer No deterministic timeline—depends on Bitcoin price action, ETF flows, macro. --- ### Scenarios & Expected Value **Near-term (4-12 weeks):** | Scenario | Prob | Target | Return | |----------|------|--------|--------| | Bear | 20% | $0.50-0.60 | -33% to -44% | | Base | 50% | $0.70-1.00 | -21% to +12% | | Bull | 25% | $1.50-2.00 | +68% to +124% | | Moon | 5% | $3.00-4.00 | +237% to +349% | **Expected Value: $1.15 (+29%)** **Conditional altseason (IF BTC.D <52%):** | Scenario | Prob | Target | Return | |----------|------|--------|--------| | Early | 40% | $1.20-1.80 | +35% to +102% | | Confirmed | 35% | $2.00-3.50 | +125% to +293% | | Peak | 15% | $4.50-7.00 | +406% to +687% | **Conditional EV: $2.51 (+182%)** **Critical dependencies:** - BTC.D transition (40%) - Robotics execution (70%) - AI narrative sustains (60%) - VIRTUAL captures rotation (50%) = ~8% compound probability all align within 12 weeks **Most probable outcome (50%):** 4-8 more weeks consolidating $0.70-1.00 while awaiting BTC.D decline and robotics validation. --- ### The Value Capture Question **Critical uncertainty at current valuation:** $585M market cap with $26M revenue = 22× revenue multiple **Question:** How do token holders benefit from protocol fees? **Current sources don't show:** - Token buyback mechanisms - Fee distribution to holders - Staking rewards capturing revenue **What this means:** Protocol revenue generation proves product traction and real usage. But without explicit value accrual mechanisms, token holders are speculating on future implementations—not buying current cash flows. **You're buying platform growth expectations, not dividends.** This represents material valuation uncertainty that should be understood. --- ### Week-by-Week Monitoring Framework **W1-2 (Current):** AIXBT vs VIRTUAL spread - Narrowing = rotation confirming - Widening = pattern stalling - Watch: If AIXBT dips and VIRTUAL follows, capital exiting sector entirely **W3-4:** Robotics metrics validation - Real numbers (deployments, usage, partnerships) - Not just Medium posts and Twitter hype - Weak metrics = catalyst invalidated **W5-8:** BTC.D transition signals - Weekly closes below 56% → 54% - Confirm with TOTAL3 rising (if BTC.D drops but TOTAL3 flat = BTC bleeding to stables, not alts) **W9-12:** Rotation confirmation or timeline extension - BTC.D <52% sustained - VIRTUAL tests $1.50-2.00 resistance - Pattern validates or extends to Q1 2026 --- ### Invalidation Signals **Week 4:** AIXBT +80-100% total but VIRTUAL still <$1.00 = Rotation pattern broken, large caps not participating **Week 8:** BTC.D still >56% = Timeline broken, delays to Q1 2026 minimum **Week 12:** Robotics shows minimal adoption or weak metrics = Catalyst invalidated, no differentiation edge --- ### Key Levels **Support:** $0.85 (critical floor—break likely invalidates pattern) **Resistance:** $1.50-2.00 (first heavy zone if rotation confirms) **Danger:** <$0.85 sustained = bear case active --- ### Historical Positioning Approaches **Approach 1 - Wait for Confirmation:** Entry deferred until BTC.D <54% AND robotics validated - Lower risk tolerance - Avoided consolidation chop - Entered 15-30% higher **Approach 2 - Position During Setup:** Entry at $0.85-0.90 ahead of catalysts - Moderate risk tolerance - Endured 4-8 week sideways + -20% drawdowns - Captured full move when catalysts aligned **Approach 3 - Focus Smaller Caps:** Allocated to AI16Z/AIXBT for superior math - Higher risk tolerance - Greater daily swings - Maximum percentage upside --- ### Bottom Line for Community **What VIRTUAL has:** - Real product with measurable revenue ($26M annualized) - Sector dominance (9× larger than nearest competitor) - Zero unlock risk (100% circulating supply) - Potential rotation setup (Week 1 pattern) - Robotics differentiation catalyst (mid-Nov validation) **What remains uncertain:** - Token value capture from protocol fees - Robotics execution vs narrative - BTC.D timeline (could be weeks or months) - Rotation pattern confirmation (need 2-3 more weeks data) **Most probable near-term:** 4-8 weeks more consolidation while waiting for BTC.D decline and catalyst validation. **IF conditions align:** +182% conditional expected value in altseason scenario. **BUT:** Only 8% compound probability all factors align within 12 weeks. **This is a timing bet dependent on broader market cycles, not just VIRTUAL's execution.** --- **Full research (5,000+ words) with detailed probability methodology, historical rotation analysis, monitoring protocols:** https://pierce-pierce.ghost.io/virtuals-protocol-2-51-target-if-altseason-hits-8-chance-all-factors-align/ --- **Disclaimer:** Educational analysis for informational purposes. Not financial advice. All probabilities are illustrative estimates based on historical patterns, not predictive guarantees. Crypto investments involve substantial risk including total loss. DYOR. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Boomers won’t buy alts even if there’s an ETF 😆
thinking about buying some LTC, it's only up 2x from 2022 bottom, and just got an ETF 🤔
If I had a sat for every time someone doesn't understand Blackrocks BTC ETF, I'd have more BTC than Satoshi.
Because the entire US economy is changing to use digital currency. Physical cash will be obsolete. The big 3, Blackrock, State Street and Vanguard are buying all the $BTC/Making BTC/Crypto ETF’s. The dollar has already lost -11% of its value since the beginning the year alone. Anyone still holding cash by 2030 is screwed.
I started in college too. Best decision I made was not going all in at once. Just started small, learned how to move crypto, and used Nexo to hold and earn while studying how things work. You’re not too late - if anything, things like the Solana ETF are showing that big money’s just starting to enter. As a student, focus on learning first, profit second.
Lol dude, your edit is entitled AF, its the middle if the day, I have more important things to do then wait for your condescending comment and reply within a 2 hour window. Sorry you dont have the assets to deal with a private banker, that's clear. But if you want near 4-5% just deposit the BTC into a margin account (hold ETF equivalent) and pull out the margin. Lots of brokers do this, IB offers right now 4.9% So instead of being so confidently wrong and arrogant, maybe try to learn from people that know more than you, you'd be far better off in life.
You might not have a large enough balance to get BTC native loan. But if you dont have custody of your BTC anyway you can always just buy a ETF equivalent on a discounted margin account, lots of margin accounts can get you 4.8 or less. Just pull out the extra liquidity its the same as a leveraged loan. If you have at least 5 million dollars net asset you can also just get an equity/asset backed LOC. Thats another way.
I get that feeling, man - the space is overloaded. For me, I’ve started focusing on projects that actually get adopted and have liquidity coming from outside crypto. Solana’s one of the few in that category right now, especially with the ETF coming. I keep mine on Nexo so I can earn yield or use it as collateral while waiting to see how that institutional flow plays out.
LTC just launched an ETF too.
Thank you very much. I have to say. Mass adoption going this deep into their security might be hard. I can see why a lot of people just stick with the ETF stuff
tldr; BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has shifted his stance on cryptocurrencies, now endorsing Bitcoin and gold as hedges against fiat currency debasement. Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, Fink highlighted the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, driven by fears of financial instability and currency debasement. BlackRock's aggressive expansion into digital assets, including its Bitcoin ETF, has positioned the firm as a major player in the crypto market, with predictions of Bitcoin's long-term value reaching $700,000. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
This is my first cycle. I sold my car last summer and put 10k $ into altcoins. Where i live people make like average of 1500$ monthly. Traded it, lost day by day, week by week. I was glued to the charts, didnt sleep. Eventually i rage traded and lost all of it. This was one of the biggest lessons of my life. I was a greedy piece of sh*t. After that i took a rest from markets and now been only buying bitcoin ETF when market has a big dip. I dont care if i own it or not. I just want to get the upside. Now i'm enjoying life and dont feel the need to rush things or "get rich quick". I learned that patience is the key, slowly stack money and make moves when the market gives an opportunity, my vision completely changed. Long term grind is the way. And will stay away from alts. This cycle has proved why BTC is the king and will remain as a king.
You are trying to differentiate btc against alts i am not talking about price appreciation ..thats ii's bacame wallstreet darling with ETF just because bitcoin is so slow and costly it's not a thret against banks or institutions while xrp and other projects was slapped with a law suit ...
There are a lot of companies adding them to their treasuries actually [like so](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/RELI/pressreleases/35699113/reliance-global-group-reli-adds-solana-sol-to-digital-asset-treasury-expanding-high-performance-blockchain-holdings/) - The thing is, they don't need an ETF to do this, anyone remotely savvy has been adding the tokens to treasuries for a while now
“Coverdell ESA” is just the program type (like a 529 plan). I think he just created his own account at Schwab and used it to buy a bitcoin ETF.
I feel like some crummy service is using the trusted Coverdell ESA name to create faux trust. They are way too traditional to be offering a BTC option, especially a non-ETF one…
Bitcoin and Solana. The first Solana ETF of many opens today. Solana is the only block chain that can run the NASDAQ stock exchange. Solana is the fastest and cheapest and over 60% of all transactions in all of crypto take place on Solana. You can trade perpetual on Solana because it is so fast and so cheap you can’t do that on any other Blockchain. Do your research on Solana to verify if what I have satisfaction or not.
Should have kept the money in there and just bought a good BTC ETF
This is surely going to confuse the "others" chart. It tracks the top 125 coins excluding the top 10. So it tracks HBAR AND LTC too. Imagine there is strong demand for those altcoin ETF's, it will then single out SOL and LTC to rise. But that drags the "Others" chart up. Either we get a decoupling and the others chart stops holding any meaning and altcoins need to be looked at individually or it rises everything in the top 125 with it. Thoughts?
Crazy, that after BTC and ETH, HBAR is the next getting an ETF - love it!
This is just the beginning :-) a few more ETF will launch and most of the time a ETF launch creates price surge only a few months after inception so this 18% pump instantly on launch ist a very bullish sign to me. Also they just launched a few more things like the IBM usecase or the institutional wallet by the hashgraph group! The Blockhain for energy as governing council including some of the most valuable enterprises in the world also got me hyped (Exxon Mobil and Saudi Aramco!) |=|
tldr; Hedera's HBAR token surged 8% ahead of the debut of its spot ETF on Nasdaq, with trading volume doubling to $421 million. The ETF, sponsored by Canary Capital Group LLC and supported by custodians BitGo and Coinbase, will trade under the ticker HBR. The rally defied broader market corrections and saw increased interest from derivatives traders. Anthony Scaramucci described the development as 'the sound of inevitability.' HBAR is the native cryptocurrency of Hedera Hashgraph, a public distributed ledger using unique consensus technology. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Ltc selling into 1 year wait on ETF 🤡😂🤡😂🤡😂
Canary Capital launching HBAR ETF on Nasdaq
Dude, there are only a total of 17 million usable bitcoin, and even among those couple millions are owned by ETF, Saylor, etc. So practically, there are only about 17 million or fewer bitcoins that are on sale. So not more than 17 million people can own 1 bitcoin each. But consider that people don't just own just 1, they own lots ( like Saylor). It is estimated by statistical methods that there are only 800,000 people who own more than 1 bitcoin. So 1 bitcoin is NOT for everybody. Very few people can own it, and fewer actually get to own 1 Bitcoin.
inb4 Fed Bitcoin ETF bailout But they'll rekt Saylor, only Larry Fink gets it
What’s coming ? Shit don’t you know it’s HBAR man ! ETF will be active on Oct 28 , but I’m not supposed to say anything, not till Monday so are you going to be in the few millionaires to be or are you going to be in the masses to miss out ? Go check it out
ETF? Cant it go like ETH initially? sell the news etc
That was just staking. This is the first spot ETF in the US afaik
HBAR ETF lauch tomorow. Nice.
SOL Spot ETF launched and trades tomorrow, nice!
This is only useful if you assume that the mechanisms behind the price action are static year after year, which they aren’t. ETF’s and institutional buying has shifted the paradigm.
>called a Coverdale ESA That’s an outdated name. It’s universally known as Coverdale Education Savings Account (ESA). There are Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) limits for qualifications. Yes, gifting money to your child and having them contribute is a loophole, but not truly legit. Does your child file taxes? If you’re audited by the IRS, you can be busted. Volatility is the big concern with respect to the Bitcoin ETF. How old is your child? How long is your timeframe? For anything under 5 years, I personally wouldn’t do it. But you do you
> I took your eye roll as directed at the person who thought it was not the same. They thought it was the same. I quoted a comment, now deleted, from someone who was arguing that buying the ETF is no different than buying bitcoin. I agree with all your arguments, let's be friends 🧡
> No. It’s not. With an ETF you have to pay a recurring fee. Bitcoin has no recurring fees. With an ETF, the government can confiscate all of it in the name of national security and “reasons”. Bitcoin on a hard wallet can’t be confiscated. Do you understand the meaning of the eye roll emoji? > hard wallet \*hard*ware* wallet
No. It’s not. With an ETF you have to pay a recurring fee. Bitcoin has no recurring fees. With an ETF, the government can confiscate all of it in the name of national security and “reasons”. Bitcoin on a hard wallet can’t be confiscated.
tldr; The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is an important metric for traders to monitor, as it reflects market sentiment and comparative performance. Recent optimism around U.S.-China trade talks has improved the ratio, though fears remain. Bitcoin ETF inflows have lagged behind gold ETFs, suggesting potential for catch-up. Bitcoin has gained recently, partly due to gold retreating from its all-time high. Analysts suggest watching for the ratio to break above 30 as a signal of reduced market fear. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Why is this a question? Either you think BTC is a legitimate commodity that will continue to grow in value over the long term, or you think it’s a speculative instrument that might vanish overnight. If it’s the former, shut up and stack your shares like any other investment. If it’s the latter, shut up and go buy gold or your favorite ETF.
We didn't get it in 2021 either or despite the BTC ETF's this time around. There wasn't a moment where everyone flocked to BTC or crypto. It was all pretty consistent and gradual. Might be the new norm.
I’m probably going to get downvoted, but for people prone to scams (which is at least 50% of people) I always recommend the GLDM ETF if they want to invest in gold. Or for people who aren’t technically savvy or disorganized, I steer them towards whichever bitcoin etf currently has the lowest expense ratio like BTC.
It will happen, but it takes some time. $65k is bottom, or at least that was supposed to be the bottom before ETF's happend. Now only time will tell what the bottom is.
the cycle seems broken no? with all the ETF purchaes the market isnt the same
> Buying etf ibit just the same buying bitcoin \*Buying ETF IBIT *is* just the same *as* buying bitcoin 🙄
When i hit my goal, i decided to keep stacking with 50% of the money i used to put in, the other 50% from there on went into an ETF. So obviously BTC has a huge headstart and will remain forever and by far my largest position, but its nice to built something different on the side, which i prefer to sell in an emergency rather than my BTC that are going to purchase me a house one day and secure my retirement
Stocks top is officially in. I have just decided to diversify and threw some cash into Nasdaq100 ETF. Now it's gonna be down only until the bubble bursts.