ETF

leo_of_august

If it's good enough for Harvard’s endowment fund, it's good enough for BlackRock to sustain their most successful + profitable ETF in 2025 alone.

Uzivert-

Bitcoin ETFs racked in 3 Billion in the last week. That is good news for me. Institutions have not given up on the asset. Retail aren’t the only players anymore and we are small players now. The giants have entered the arena. Honestly, the moment BlackRock announced their ETF, that was the point of no return. Trump endorsing Bitcoin and firing Gensler was the sweet cherry on top. BlackRock has scooped up 820K (currently 777k) BTC in 2 years. It took Saylor 5 to get there and with massive leverage. BlackRock has gotten there due to client demand. Lmao, I truly believe “it’s going up forever, Laura”.

LowerStranger9021

These are short term trading vehicles. Not intended for long term holding. The structure of these ETFs is the reason they aren’t recommended for buy and hold investing. Even the marketing materials for this particular ETF caution against holding for more than a few days. If they are saying that it’s wise to listen.

LNCrizzo

Dice roll to select your words directly from a table like [this one](https://github.com/scottmsul/DiceTables/blob/master/dice_tables.pdf) or [this one if you only have D6s. ](https://github.com/taelfrinn/Bip39-diceware/blob/master/coin_plus_d6_bip39.pdf) Roll 23 words (or 11), then have the device calculate the final word. Then check the complete seed on another wallet to make sure it gives you the same addresses as your Trezor. You can do this with an online wallet since you probably don't have a second HWW or offline computer, just discard that first seed after you are done. Maybe do a small test transaction and play with the features and phone app on the throwaway first to get comfortable. Then when you're ready roll a new seed that you only enter into the Trezor. Checking a seed on two different wallets ensures that the Trezor is correctly generating the wallet from your seed words and it is recoverable. By dice rolling your seed you know that the entropy exists because you shook up the dice yourself (I recommend shaking them in a cup). Using a word lookup table bypasses trusting the software to convert a random string of numbers into words for you. You can see that the entropy of a 1D4 and 3D8 table is solid because 4x8x8x8=2048, which is exactly how many BIP 39 seed words there are to choose from. If you let the Trezor generate the seed then you can't be sure and just have to trust they did everything right. If this all sounds like too much work then I don't know what to tell you. I don't know how much BTC you're trying to secure, but if it is or could eventually be a life changing amount then spending the time and effort to learn this stuff should be a no-brainer. If you just want it to be easy then buy the ETF or keep it on an exchange.

miner_guy_22

Diversifying against different attacks/points of failure is a good strategy. Should add that depending on which ETF, if they are using Coinbase for custody you haven't diversified and have added another potential point of failure.

DifficultSquash1517

I'm a sucker for greed and security so I go with the ETF not only is it safeguard against any hacks I also get to earn up to 2% every month writing calls on my positions 🤑

Expectations1

Jokes aside, mt view is that as this pump is ETF driven they will have a longer term horizon, they arent going to be trading this like the derivatives markets. Thiswasnt a leverage driven pump. Best bet is get in at the 70-$74k range.

United_Weight3580

Do you care about Bitcoin and the Blockchain as concepts? Do you intend to "use" btc for something except as an investment or trading/gambling? If you answer no to both these questions and only want financial exposure to the btc price, you're better off buying a BTC ETF

AggravatingGuest1956

Just allocate a small Roth portion to crypto ETF’s and forget about it. I’d steer clear people I know IRL to actually wanting to purchase on an exchange, explore DeFi, or anything else in crypto. You’re better off just buying the majors and forgetting about them instead of picking the .00001% coin that isn’t a scam or rugpull. Same reasoning behind VOO and chill.

AutoModerator

Post is by: orid7 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1w1rvfe/btc_85k_by_2026_is_68c_but_smart_money_is_81_yes/ One BTC prediction market I keep coming back to: "Bitcoin hits $85,000 before 2027" is sitting around 68c. The clean read is almost boring: the model number I have is 70c, so there is not some giant gap here. The interesting part is the wallet split. Among tracked profitable prediction-market traders, about 81% of the smart-money side is YES. That makes this feel less like "BTC is obviously cheap" and more like a crowding question. If the market is already near fair value, are those wallets seeing a path/volatility edge, or are they just all leaning the same obvious macro trade? Touch markets are weird because BTC does not need to end 2026 above $85k. It only has to tag it once. That makes 68c look less aggressive than it would for a year-end close market. But the other side is real too: long-dated markets tie up capital, spreads can eat the apparent edge, and one slow volatility-crush period makes the "one wick will do it" thesis a lot weaker. What would you want to see before calling this correctly priced: options vol, ETF flow, liquidity on the market itself, or just BTC reclaiming a specific level first? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

womanlyhegemony0

$100k is just a number but the ETF flow charts don't lie, liquidity is getting hoovered up faster than anything I've seen

The-great-phoenix

This is a complex situation: Macroeconomy is bad so it will put a medium downward pressure on crypto market Tokenization of RWA is progressing and will expand the size of crypto market with a large upward pressure Prediction markets and perpetual contract are adding volatility so the price could go wild because of massive liquidation either up or down. The individuals and institutional interest regarding crypto is growing so there are more ETF and wallets opening that are channeling more money so upward pressure on cryptos Finally inflation will drive price of token up especially the ones that are deflationary or with max supply released Globally I would say that price has most chance to go up in the near future unless we enter into a depp recession

KrazyKreutz

I thought about this.. Probably the greatest reason it won't happen. But im pretty sure big institutions can still invest money during the weekend right, its just their stocks won't move. ETF's and stuff of course won't flow in during the weekend but still.

DangKilla

Not a chance. All ETF’s bought in at $32K and one at 51K.

devCheckingIn

9-day ETF inflow streak broken yesterday 🥀

Signal-Fig-2952

Self custody is going to be increasing hazardous as more and more interest in Bitcoin appears in the coming years. The thieves and crooks will become more determined to steal your assets. Props to those of you who are still determined to hold the keys, but I prefer not being killed in my home. I keep it in custodial management in an ETF (and some on Coinbase but with physical 2FA, multisig, and time locks).

SoullessGinger666

ETF's

Romanizer

We have build support and bottom around the 200WMA around $60k, saw seller exhaustion at that level and just saw $3 billion of ETF inflows around the short squeeze. Price is now close to 50WMA. After the last bear market, we had to wait 4 months to climb to that level. Most on-chain indicators are bullish. I don't see a bear case anymore. The only counterargument is "October" from those that can't count days on their own.

migueliiito

I might get downvoted to oblivion, but honestly the lowest risk for most people is an ETF, or Coinbase using their vault feature

ElderberryPerfect263

Self custody is for ideologues. ETF’s are way easier to transact

BigvalBROski

Buy the ETF…… much easier…. This isn’t 2018. Get to 1 coin and hold for 20 years .

Cheqraise

Feel like a more balanced strategy is needed. I'd just stick 80% of it on the All World ETF. Spacex is a long term investment so not sure what you expected from holding the stock for a couple of months. Still worth holding a bit. I'd honestly not touch Bitcoin. Good luck to you anyway and hope it works out.

nomady

2.5 billion flooded in by ETF the last 5 days.

Physical-Salary5713

I think alts have a chance only with ETF investors. If more ETFs will be applied, we can see altseosen for some of them

joefunk76

The expense fee of an ETF comes out the back-end. It doesn’t matter what kind of tax vehicle you hold it in. The price is the price at any given time, no matter where it’s held.

SamwiseGamgee87

Also today with ETF, probably a lot of people have more than 1 BTC but who they manage the address is something we can't know.

RandomPlayerCSGO

Because I want to buy real BTC and transfer it to my wallet not an ETF

holdy73

Judging by the response, it’s no longer available — it closed in February 2024. I only found SJIM on TradingView, but it also closed before 2024. Another interesting thing is that a similar fund that invested with Cramer (Long Cramer Tracker ETF, ticker: LJIM) closed even earlier — in August 2023, having existed for only 5 months. In short, there won’t be any money, guys, let’s go.

froopadiddilydoop

They aren’t pathetic, I’ve made quite good money from ETF, and believe it or not, the Bonds and Gilts markets.

sspecialists

Collapse? hahaha go buy an ETF if you aren’t ready for 15% swings. 1% is nothing in crypto.

Substantial_Trip_706

Creo que usted ni siquiera sabe lo que es un ETF

Rey_Mezcalero

Will see what happens but if the rise up was the new ETF…there already is a bunch of other ETF and after the excitement and few months of sales the price went back down. While I don’t think 40k is going to happen, I wouldn’t be surprised the “excitement” wears off, price stalls and people take profits

Twerking_Vayne

ETF is a wrapper, not an asset. A mix of ETFs at age 55 means a lot of bond ETFs, which is the point.

Traditional_Most105

I was a beginner 3 months ago when a friend told me he made some money into crypto and i wanted to give it a try. I did not become an expert nor did i make any money although am in the green zone cause btc went up but i can give you some advice based on everything i learned in these 3 months. I started by asking chatgpt some questions, found a 1-3 coins in the top 200 bought them in small quantities... Then i wanted to buy memecoins, i bought what were available on revolut so they were already established memecoins with not a huge upside like you can find in other exchanges. I was focusing on coins that were very cheap in order to get lots of each coin. That's a mistake cause a cheap coin doesn't mean a huge upside. You have to see it's marketcap, it's price, circulating supply, FDV (Fully dilluted value). So for example PEPE it's a memecoin. It's price is around 0.0000034. You put 50 eu and you get around 14 million pepe coins. And you think that if it goes to 1eu each you'd be a millionaire. BUT if you see that it's market cap is 1.38 billion, circulating supply is 413 trillion pepe and max supply the same which means that all tokens are unlocked, then you realize that if it goes to 1 eu each it means that 1 x 413 trillion means it's market cap should be 413 trillion which is impossible for a memecoin with no use. Then you have other coins that it's circulating supply is 50% or less which means only 50% of the tokens were unlocked, so it means when they unlock more of them or even all of them then it's demand will decrease and it's price also because more coins circulating = less demand = less upside. Then i started learning about narratives and i wanted to diversify into those narratives as well, bought some coins of different narratives also. Then i saw in socials about a memecoin and i wanted to buy that also. Bought that also. Then i decided to do some serious learning and research on crypto terms, other altcoins, etc.. and i bought some more alts also. I focused on coins with good tokenomics, a good project purpose that i understand by reading whitepapers, it's purpose mostly on coinmarketcap site. Then i started dca on them gradually. FOMO or Fear of missing out is a factor you have to stop at the start or don't let it blur your mind and put large amounts of money. I started putting small amounts of money cause i was acting based on FOMO. Later when i did more research and more learning it helped me narrowing down to more "safer" alts than randomly buying whatever i was seeing on socials. Trading memecoins is a dangerous game. There are memecoins that are honeypots which it means that you can buy them but the creators made them so you can never sell them. Other memecoins are literal rug and pulls, they hype a coin and insiders know when it's price will go up and they sell before you realize it's price went up plus they use bots. Not to say there are not "safer" memecoins but they are already established and have gone through at least one cycle. And not to say that you can't find safe memecoins that are not scams and make money but this leans towards day trading which will consume many hours of your time and i didn't go towards that path. If you want to invest in crypto BTC is the safest option. Then there are altcoins which include ETH which is the second safest option. And then other altcoins and then memecoins. Make sure to research an altcoin before investing in it, understand its purpose. Answer what's it's purpose? If the project succeeds and gets adopted will the coin's demand increase? Does it have good tokenomics? Does the coin/token have a utility inside the network? Why this decentralized project and not a centralized one? Why this coin and not another competitive coin? Listen and read socials, watch influencers AFTER you do your research and learning and let this noise be 5% of the deciding factor of you investing. Most want to hype their coins and use you as their exit strategy. Another advice is make sure to put money you can afford to lose, do your own research on everything if you want to invest and speculate safer, make sure to have a plan on when and how much to invest for example this amount monthly... and also have an exit strategy for example when it hits this price i sell 20% and i leave the rest for a later exponential rise. I wrote some words that might seem like alien language to you. That's how i was reading them. Research them, learn the terms, learn more about how crypto works, about BTC, about ETF's, about past cycles, altseason, crypto regulations, what affects crypto to go up or down, how the market was in the past compared to how it is now, learn how to read each coins tokenomics, learn everything you can first and then invest large amounts of money. I know you might be excited and if you want to invest now, invest very small amount of money until you learn most of the basic stuff. There are no guarantees in crypto and sure it's not just plain gambling. It's speculation sure, but it also needs some research and learning in order to speculate safer. Although memecoins is plain speculation or reading charts but it's more time consuming than holding some coins you have researched for long term. Imagine that you hold a map and trying to find a treasure and there's no certain area circled but multiple treasure spots that might be empty. That's just speculating and gambling in crypto blindly. Now imagine having a map with many treasure spots again on it but this time an area of the map is circled and it's in that area the treasure. That's crypto after you did your learning and your research. You still have to speculate on where the treasure is but at least you know it's less time consuming = safer bet/speculation.

BigvalBROski

Glad I bought a coin through the ETF at $64k.

2xfun

You should try mentioning bitcoin in a FIRE sub. They will turn into buttcoiners and it’s hilarious to watch … I once try to argue that the real inflation is not the cpi but much closer to M2 in that sub … they had a meltdown because an 10% inflation rate means they were not turning a profit with they ETF based strategies … it’s hilarious 

OneMiners_Hosting

The important part here is these are direct BTC-to-ETF conversions, not BlackRock going out and buying $5B of bitcoin. Holders are moving BTC they already own into IBIT in exchange for ETF shares, so it’s more of a change in ownership structure than fresh buying.

BrokenHefaistos

MS is only in it for his ( and ETF holders ) profit, he's not somekind of protecting god. He's a pro taker. The more it dips, the more he earns when it recovers, at 150k the risk of others dumping becomes rather high.

MaxiMaxLaurent

ETF has been more of a reactionary force than a driving force. It reacts to wherever the wind blows. Hence the dissappointing bull cycle and why it didn’t provide the driving force people expected. We saw it on the way down as ETF didnt sustain its inflow and just reacted to the market. That’s because people who buy ETFs aren’t buying coins they’re gonna hodl in cold storage long term, they’re just buying to ride the speculation.

SaneLad

The financial alchemy continues. Just buy Bitcoin folks. If you absolutely must, buy a Bitcoin ETF. No normal person needs multiple layers of leverage and interest obligations on top of it. And nobody should ever pay $2 for $1 of Bitcoin under management.

canadianragweed

Why can't an individual hold 1+ BTC on an exchange or through an ETF? It's 80k, a modest vehicle.

avgjoe104220

38% Very sizable position though in gross fiat total. I'm up on whole portfolio. Average buy of direct BTC prob around mid 60's and average of btc ETF prob around $39/share. I'm not as attached to btc etf so I'm going to plan to sell some once it hits all time high again and hold it to redeploy once it crashes again next bear cycle.

M4roon

Eh, wasn't it a few weeks ago we were having people posting in here how they lost all their life savings in that cold wallet hack? and before this little pump, there were lots of posts about people who have been investing for years and have basically broken even. If they had just put it in an ETF they'd be well on their way to retirement. BTC has use cases. And it is possible to double your wealth if you do it right. There's also a chance you lose everything, and a better chance you break even or make a small profit.

GILL-47

and ? ETF outflow is also just as quick

Generationhodl

I love it when people don't even read the article thats linked in this thread. "BlackRock's IBIT has processed more than $5 billion of direct Bitcoin-to-ETF conversions after lowering the minimum transaction size from $25 million to $1 million." "BlackRock has helped move more than $5 billion of directly held Bitcoin into its [iShares Bitcoin Trust](https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/ibit-options-volume-record-bitcoin-call-options/) (IBIT), strengthening Wall Street's grip on an asset originally designed to operate outside the traditional financial system. The shift allows large holders to exchange BTC for ETF shares without first selling their coins for cash."

QXPZ

That's super interesting. I didn't know anything like that existed. Thought you had to sell and pay taxes before moving to ETF.

BastiatF

Nope, their customers buy ETF shares which pushes the price above NAV. This creates an arbitrage opportunity for authorised participants who buy bitcoins and exchange for new ETF shares that they can sell at a premium. ETF customers never touch a single sat.

International_Long60

Exactly and I just matched the numbers in the picture with Sosovalue BTC ETF chart, and it seems like lookonchain shared the same numbers that are for 08/25 with some twisted words.

AmeriChino

Half of mine is in tax advantage account (IRAs/401k) as ETF. The other half is actual bitcoin in a cold storage. I plan to sell most if not all bitcoin ETF eventually and keep the real bitcoin untouched for as long as I can. I don't make promise on it.

Friendly-Sign-3289

Na Monero has the superior privacy & better devs these guys just put money into the right pockets for the ETF

Jogi1811

I decided to shelter my Bitcoin in the form of an ETF in a non taxable account. This also allows me to leave the Bitcoin ETF to my loved ones without any issues. I'm kind of on the fence about keeping it versus selling it every 4 years. The ETF I have also pays a dividend that will pay for the principle amount that I invest that I will use to purchase my core ETFs.

yefuck

… and not everyone likes to buy target date funds and bleed out. My point is that Roth / IRA’s mean nothing. And the biggest indicator we have is that ETF’s are paper hands based on past performance. If you don’t believe that you have blinders on.

PreferenceOk2716

BlackRock’s IBIT has reportedly processed $5B+ in direct Bitcoin-to-ETF conversions. These let large holders move BTC into ETF shares instead of selling it first. BlackRock also lowered the minimum conversion size from $25M to $1M, making the process accessible to a much broader group of wealthy/institutional holders.

HedgeHog2k

There’s something to be said about holding btc etf (thinking about it myself on the balance sheet on my company). But there’s zero reason to buy “real” bitcoin on a traditional exchange and keep it there. User above should go for ETF/ETP…

Practical_Mango7633

I completely agree. The current financial system is so rigged that it is shocking. And it became so clear after GameStop when they literarily removed the buy button and only kept the sell button. That is extreme marked manipulation and they got away with it. It feels good owning something outside of the financial system. Even though they now buy up a lot of it, have made ETF's and options. The fact is still that they can never access my Bitcoin or deny/block any transaction I want to do.

word-dragon

Michael Saylor, Coinbase, and the ETF’s are all getting ready to jump into the new, spam-free, world! /s

Secret-Ruin-9075

That's like trying to shame someone for investing in an ETF and shaming them for not owning the underlying stocks. See how dumb that sounds? That's you.

Extra-Effective-2554

One important catch: Tether Gold’s own FAQ says U.S. persons cannot purchase or redeem XAUt directly through the issuer. I would confirm your eligibility before comparing platforms, since availability can also vary by state. If you find a platform offering it, check that you are buying actual spot XAUt that can be withdrawn, not a futures contract or price-only product. Then compare the spread, trading fee, withdrawal fee, liquidity, supported network, and custody setup. I would also read the redemption terms carefully. Tokenized gold adds issuer, exchange, wallet, and blockchain risk that you do not have in quite the same way with a gold ETF. Testing with a small amount first makes more sense than moving the whole ETF position at once.

Mysterious_Rest_6623

Looks like a bit of everything tbh. ETF inflows, weaker dollar and then shorts getting squeezed on the way up

OtherwiseNeat9617

It still matches to the cycle even if its already bottomed. It was only 2 to 3 months different.. things arent going to happen to the exact month every time.... it was oretty obvious this time would be different. It it an institutional asset of 1 trillion dollars. Held by ETF's.. one company hlds 840,000 BTC.. thats why its different. Every other cycle was retial driven.. not anymore You think it always stays the same to the day, to the dollar ??? Nope.

Romanizer

That's true. It seems like ETF inflows are stabilizing around $300m per day, Strategy has prepared $1.5bn to deploy at will. If STRC hits par, this may get much more. So it's a bit of consolidation and built-up of further buying pressure, maybe waiting for more shorts to open.

Commercial-Ad90

My Roth IRA is 100% bitcoin ETF. Looking forward to tax free w/d on gains a couple decades from now

bonsoma

The major difference versus May is the flows underneath the price. In May, Bitcoin was around this same level while spot Bitcoin ETFs were seeing billions in net outflows. This time, ETF demand has turned strongly positive, with billions flowing in over several consecutive days. The price may look similar, but the underlying buying pressure is very different.

avgjoe104220

na I bought these two weeks after ETF came out been DCA'ing since then. I'm up, I think 15% on my cost basis. So when we hit all time high, ill be just fine.

Top-Stepdeez

If history repeats itself. It just seems we never see the bear market lows each cycle. I’m afraid if I wait we won’t ever see below $100K. Especially now with the ETF in play. Top $15K> Low $3K>Top $65K>Low$15K>Top$126K>Low$58-60K>Top$200k> Low$115-$120K.

sweet-breads

The new ATH high this cycle happened before the halving so would like to see earlier over Kay as the argument is the cycle started earlier due to the ETF remains taps turning on 3-4 months before the halving. Maybe a chart overlaid with new ATHs rather than the halving?

Suitable-Guava7813

Even more if you compare it with an all world ETF did since the beginning of this year (and then we are not even stockpicking).

narrowThistle

There’s definitely more behind this move than just buyers > sellers. ETF inflows, weaker dollar and the short squeeze all helped. I’d be careful chasing after a move this strong

Romanizer

No shit, it's an ETF not coin.

twincam-110

It was a huge short squeeze plus BTC had institutional inputs - six-session total from August 17–24 to roughly **$2.26 billion of net ETF inflows**

eToroTeam

$80k matters psychologically, but the interesting part is who is doing the buying once the breakout excitement cools off. If spot and ETF demand keeps coming in during a retest, that's a much stronger story than price holding simply because shorts are still being squeezed.

Economy-Tip5925

Sono entrati i grandi fondi di ETF che muovono miliardi

Greedy_Doughnut_9209

Just buy a BTC based ETF from a reputable online broker.

destinationexmo

We can only speculate. My optimistic speculation is we saw a record week in ETF inflows last week, that alone wouldn't really explain this big of a jump but if it coincided with the end of a major liquidation event going on behind the scenes or a supply crunch then that could explain it. My pessimistic speculation would be insiders got news of something during that Trump meeting last week and are buying in before he makes some big announcement so they can dump it for profits.

ZICRON_ULTRA

Explain how to drive a car to a 5 year old is irresponsible, especially if you think they are actually going to go out and do it. It's a pretty deep and complicated process. For a 5 year old I'd recommend an ETF, or simply buying on an exchange. Everything has a tradeoff.

Cool-Bath874

This cycle is nothing remotely close to previous cycles. This is something i don’t think many people are grasping clearly enough. IBIT, ETHA, XRP & 2X XRP leveraged ETF’s, and even BSOL have all been within the most active and top movers on brokerage platforms. And that is HUGE. It doesn’t mean 4 year cycles don’t matter, they do. It means they’re no longer predictable about a specific month (there’s also no specific month like october that says “this must be the bottom”). BTC trading volume and inflows/outflows on platforms like IBKR alone have been absolutely astounding lately, also contributing to why SOL started overextending today. TL;DR — i wouldn’t just sit here waiting for a bottom for a specific month. DCA, because the chances of it just plummeting to $45k within 5-6 weeks is pretty unlikely unless DXY absolutely soars / macro gets completely hostile / positions completely unwind. 4 year cycles are not the same as they used to be

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1vxl6ry/bitcoin_hit_79406_and_slammed_into_a_wall_its_now/ [BTC ripped 24% in a week off the Treasury buyback news, tagged $79,406 Monday morning](https://news.bitcoin.com/market-updates/bitcoin-storms-past-79k-before-hitting-resistance-near-80k/), and immediately got rejected. The whole rally's next move comes down to one speech from a man who's been Fed Chair for three months. Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address: for anyone not tracking it, Jackson Hole is the annual symposium where the Fed Chair signals the direction of monetary policy, and markets hang on every word. Last year Powell used it to pivot dovish and Bitcoin blasted from $113K to $116K in a day. This year it's Warsh's turn, and he's a genuine wildcard, three months into the job, a known hawk, running a committee where half the dot plot is penciling in rate hikes, walking into a rally that was built entirely on the expectation of easier financial conditions. This entire move happened because the Treasury pushed long yields down and the market read it as easing. But if Warsh gets up at Jackson Hole and reasserts that he's serious about killing inflation, that hikes are still on the table, that he won't let financial conditions loosen, he directly contradicts the premise the rally is standing on. Yields climb back, the debasement trade deflates, and $80K becomes the local top instead of a launchpad. Warsh spent his first meeting stripping out forward guidance and posturing tough on inflation. A guy who did that isn't going to Jackson Hole to sound dovish three months into the job and undercut his own credibility, especially with the buybacks having already done the easing for him. The setup favors disappointment. I'd be genuinely surprised if BTC clears $80K cleanly before he speaks. The whole thing is coiled on what one relatively untested Fed Chair decides to signal, and everything else, the SEC rules, the ETF inflows, the White House summit, is noise next to that one speech. Bet on the catalyst, not the vibe. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

yefuck

ETF’s sold a ton during the downturn. I am a bitcoin bull but lets not get ahead of ourselves these are retail investors with paper hands.

29da65cff1fa

bitcoin ETF

RGBrewskies

better off grabbing an etf?? where do you guys get this shit... what ETF is doing 20%

Awkward_Potential_

If you need to buy an ETF Bitwise or Fidelity are my preferred choices. 

sylsau

BlackRock just absorbed nearly **70% of all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in a single week**. That should make every Bitcoiner pay attention. Not because BlackRock controls Bitcoin. It doesn’t. Your node does not know who Larry Fink is. But Wall Street’s gateway to Bitcoin is becoming increasingly concentrated around one product: **IBIT.** **That creates a fascinating paradox:** → Bitcoin stays decentralized → Institutional access becomes centralized → ETF liquidity attracts more ETF liquidity → IBIT becomes the default pipe → The default pipe becomes market infrastructure **The protocol remains permissionless. The financial wrapper does not.** And this is where the next phase of Bitcoin gets interesting. **BlackRock cannot change Bitcoin’s 21 million supply.** But it may increasingly influence how billions of dollars of traditional capital reach that supply. That is not protocol control. It is **distribution power**. And distribution power matters when the asset being distributed cannot increase production to meet demand. **Bitcoin decentralized the money. Wall Street may be centralizing access.**

sylsau

BlackRock just absorbed nearly **70% of all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in a single week**. That should make every Bitcoiner pay attention. Not because BlackRock controls Bitcoin. It doesn’t. Your node does not know who Larry Fink is. But Wall Street’s gateway to Bitcoin is becoming increasingly concentrated around one product: **IBIT.** **That creates a fascinating paradox:** → Bitcoin stays decentralized → Institutional access becomes centralized → ETF liquidity attracts more ETF liquidity → IBIT becomes the default pipe → The default pipe becomes market infrastructure **The protocol remains permissionless. The financial wrapper does not.** And this is where the next phase of Bitcoin gets interesting. **BlackRock cannot change Bitcoin’s 21 million supply.** But it may increasingly influence how billions of dollars of traditional capital reach that supply. That is not protocol control. It is **distribution power**. And distribution power matters when the asset being distributed cannot increase production to meet demand. **Bitcoin decentralized the money. Wall Street may be centralizing access.**

visionanalyticsio

You’re not wrong on the practical side. For someone who just wants price exposure and doesn’t want to become a security engineer, the ETF is cleaner. Institutional custody, audits, legal separation, tax simplicity — all real advantages over the average person trying to DIY it. The pushback usually isn’t “BlackRock is going to steal your coins.” It’s that you’re concentrating a lot of the world’s bitcoin under a handful of custodians, and the whole “not your keys” thing exists because third-party risk has a long history of eventually mattering. Insurance helps until it doesn’t, and legal segregation is great until you’re actually in the middle of a messy insolvency. Still, for pure risk-of-total-loss from user error, most people are safer in IBIT than they are with a hardware wallet they half-understand. The Coldcard situation just made that more obvious. I think both can coexist. ETF for the boring long-term allocation, self-custody if someone actually values the sovereignty and is willing to put in the work. Treating it as binary is where it gets religious.

visionanalyticsio

Fair take. For pure price exposure, especially if someone is new and just wants BTC beta in a brokerage or IRA, the ETF is the lower-friction option. Most people are more likely to screw up their own seed phrase than BlackRock/Coinbase are to lose the coins. That said, the risk isn’t really them “stealing” 0.2 BTC. It’s operational failure, concentrated custody, or some edge-case legal mess if things go really sideways. Still low probability, but not zero. Self-custody is great when someone actually wants the sovereignty and is willing to learn the ops. For a lot of people who just want the number to go up, the ETF is the more practical choice and the “you’re doing it wrong” comments don’t help.

visionanalyticsio

Yeah a lot of people run both. IBIT for the easy brokerage/IRA stuff and then some actual BTC on a hardware wallet so you’re not 100% dependent on the ETF structure and Coinbase custody. After the Coldcard stuff I’d lean Bitkey over Ledger if you’re starting fresh, but both have tradeoffs. Ledger’s been around longer, Bitkey is simpler and more open. Just buy direct and verify everything. Main thing is deciding how much you actually want to self-custody vs keep in the ETF. No wrong answer, just different risks.

AutoModerator

Post is by: sembkaget and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1vxdv40/where_it_stands_today/ Given where things stand, sitting at $78-79K right into a well-documented resistance wall at $80K, with RSI overbought and large holders reportedly ready to sell into that zone, I'd lean toward choppy consolidation in the $73K-$80K range rather than a clean breakout or a collapse. Two scenarios I'd weight roughly evenly: Grind/pullback scenario (slightly favored): BTC tests $80K, gets rejected by large-holder selling, and retraces back toward $73-75K to "digest" the 22% move before trying again. This is the more typical pattern after a squeeze-driven rally this sharp. Breakout scenario: If ETF inflows stay strong and there's any positive CLARITY Act headline (even a rumor ahead of the September vote), the crowd could push through $80K on momentum alone, opening a path toward $85-90K. What I'd not expect this week: a full reversal into bear-market territory. The structural tailwinds (ETF inflows, Treasury liquidity, institutional demand) are too fresh and strong for that kind of sentiment flip in just a few days, bear markets tend to build over weeks/months, not materialize overnight after a rally like this. Bottom line: I'd watch the $80K level as the tell. Hold and close above it = bulls in control. Reject and drop back under $75K = expect more sideways chop before the next move. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

QuietLedgerAcademy

The hesitation is mostly a reflection of market participants dealing with consolidation fatigue while waiting on clearer macro direction. When you look beneath the surface, it is primarily macro driven. Traders are trying to gauge the exact pace of upcoming central bank rate cuts, bond yield movements, and global liquidity expansion. Regulatory developments create localized headline noise, but global fiat liquidity is the real engine that dictates multi week trend continuation. Institutional spot ETF buyers are quietly absorbing float in the background, but retail and momentum traders need a clear, decisive breakout catalyst before committing aggressive capital. Historically, these neutral sentiment compression windows where neither bulls nor bears have strong conviction are the calm before the storm. When volatility finally expands out of a tight sentiment regime like this, the ensuing move tends to catch the vast majority completely off guard.

QuietLedgerAcademy

Welcome back. A lot has changed over the last few years, especially with spot ETFs going live and institutional capital entering the market. Here is a quick rundown on where things stand today: Where to buy Stick to established, regulated platforms for fiat deposits. Kraken and Coinbase are very reliable and beginner friendly. If you are focused strictly on Bitcoin, dedicated apps like Strike or River are great for easy automated recurring buys with low fees. Where to store Do not leave your holdings on exchanges long term. Cold storage is still the golden rule. Physical hardware wallets like Ledger, Tangem, or BitBox02 keep your private keys completely offline and protected from online hacks, exchange insolvencies, or phishing attacks. Where to get up to speed Stay away from noisy social media timelines and paid signal groups. For structured learning, check out open educational resources like Ledgers Academy (ledgersacadamy.com), along with data tools like CoinGlass, DefiLlama, and TradingView to see where real liquidity and volume are flowing. What has long term potential Keep your core strategy simple. Spot Bitcoin remains the premier digital reserve asset backed by massive institutional ETF demand. Ethereum and Solana dominate decentralized finance and onchain activity. Starting with a solid foundation in the blue chips and dollar cost averaging over a multi year horizon is still the most reliable way to navigate the space :)

froopadiddilydoop

This is my point - to make any real profit, you need a lot of Capital. 10k was an arbitrary figure. You’d be better off grabbing an ETF. All the get rich quick stuff happened ten years ago.

The_Realist02

I’m just glad we finally got a bid. I took similar actions. Q2 /Q3 this year was the first time I’ve bought since a couple months post ETF. Feels good.

The_Realist02

Correct. Although the ETF themselves I think I leave out of this. Products downstream from etf I would call paper btc.

Porcellanidae

They sold more than they actually had ?!?! Never hold on the exchange or in ETF's my friends

stablecoinn

ETF flows and corporate treasuries are the marginal buyer instead of halving-driven supply.👍

riscten

Again, you can't get hacked if you follow best practices. Trusting Coldcard's RNG without ever auditing the code was never best practice. It was fine for small amounts but still a large risk. Anyone who lost large amounts of money with Coldcard wasn't being diligent with their self-custody. As for being able to call someone if your ETF goes to zero, that works until it doesn't. On a CEX specifically, you expose yourself to massive risks of fractional reserves. People seem to have an incredibly short memory when it comes to this. When BlockFi went down only 4 years ago, investors all had numbers they could call but still largely ended up with empty pockets. And while a traditional pure Bitcoin ETF is better in that regard as it involves many participants keeping each other in check, you're still exposing yourself to state-level freezes and seizures. If the US decides to seize all Bitcoin like they did for gold with Executive Order 6102, or even that they decide for one reason or another that you shouldn't own your Bitcoin, you won't be able to do anything about it as institutions will just comply. And then there's the futures and synthetic Bitcoin derivative ETFs that can literally print coins out of thin air.

Dehyak

Well you don’t own BTC if you’re investing through an ETF. And if it’s with an ETF, it’s on a CEX. During the financial crisis, companies weren’t stealing peoples stocks. Self-custody is great, been doing it since 2018. But with self-custody, you can still get hacked (Coldcard), you can expose yourself through negligence or just bad practice, you can forget your password, lose your pass phrase. It’s all a risk, I still opt for self-custody. But buying an ETF through a CEX does look more and more attractive than custody imo. If my account says $0. I have numbers I can call

riscten

Bitcoin held in self custody using best practices cannot be hacked or drained. The people who have their coins stolen are those who just wing it without understanding the tech. They stored on a hot wallet on an insecure device or trusted a digital RNG to produce their mnemonics (as was the case with Coldcard), and then someone swept it all. This doesn't happen to people with 2-of-3 multisig wallets with geographically distributed, dice-generated mnemonics stamped on metal. It doesn't even happen to people with single-sig wallets using high-entropy passphrases. The risk with institutions holding your coins for you isn't that your coins might be hacked or drained. They have people who do custody properly (like you should). The risk is that they get to decide if you own it or not, and in a crisis, that may not favor you. Bitcoin was created in reaction to the 2008 financial crisis, when bankers, which some people trusted, worked against the people's interest behind closed doors, until it all collapsed.  The whole point of Bitcoin is to put zero trust in opaque, large institutions. This is why everything is verifiable. Stick Bitcoin in an ETF or on a CEX, and you're right back to square one. Right back to the very thing Bitcoin was designed to protect against.

Jogi1811

I think it's too early for a serious breakout. It's holding steady at $77k right now but it's only the start of the week so who knows. Not excited really but nice to be in the green now. Running in an ETF not sure if that matters.

Hqjjciy6sJr

Vanguard ETF

Romanizer

Bitcoin goes up in value when demand for a scarce, liquid, non-sovereign digital asset grows faster than its fixed supply. That demand can come from retail, institutions, ETFs, treasury adoption, macro hedging, collateral use, or simply more people wanting exposure to a monetary asset outside the traditional system. Stocks rise because businesses generate earnings. Real estate rises because property produces rent and scarcity in specific locations. Gold rises because people trust it as a neutral store of value. Bitcoin is closest to digital gold, but with easier transfer, auditability, divisibility and global settlement. It goes down when liquidity tightens, leverage unwinds, regulation looks hostile, ETF/institutional demand weakens, holders lose conviction, or risk appetite collapses. So the reason to own Bitcoin is that it offers a unique risk/reward profile: fixed supply, growing accessibility, strong liquidity, and potential monetary adoption. The downside is volatility and missing cash flow. The upside is that if it continues to become a recognized reserve/collateral asset, its addressable market is much larger than today and growth potential is higher than in any other asset.