ETF

Maxtradermongolia

https://preview.redd.it/fdztccrfvd9h1.png?width=1484&format=png&auto=webp&s=8de35c3bab0f40a4a6c6e4027e75ce9c45d9fb39 Hey everyone, I’ve been looking at the BTC/USD weekly chart, and I wanted to share my long-term technical analysis with you all. Looking at the macro structure from 2020 until now, Bitcoin has been respecting a major multi-year ascending trendline. If we apply the Fibonacci retracement tool to the entire impulse wave, the current price action around $61k seems to be breaking down from the local channel. According to my chart, if the bearish momentum continues, here is the path I'm anticipating: 1. \*\*The $49k Support (0.705 Fib):\*\* We have a minor horizontal support here, but it might not be enough to hold the macro trend shift. 2. \*\*The Ultimate Bottom ($35,658 - 0.79 Fib):\*\* This is where it gets interesting. The 0.79 Fibonacci level perfectly aligns with our long-term macro trendline around late 2026 / early 2027. 3. \*\*The Macro Rebound:\*\* If this trendline holds, this exact macro confluence ($35k) will be the ultimate institutional accumulation zone, triggering a massive wave towards new all-time highs by 2028-2029. I know calling for a $35k BTC might sound extremely bearish to some right now, but historically, Bitcoin loves washing out over-leveraged traders and hitting deep Fib levels before a true macro expansion. What do you guys think? Is a drop to $35k in the cards, or will institutional ETF inflows prevent us from ever dipping this low again? Let's discuss!

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Post is by: Maxtradermongolia and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1uf3gb6/btcusd_drop_till_35k_is_it_possible/ Hey everyone, I’ve been looking at the BTC/USD weekly chart, and I wanted to share my long-term technical analysis with you all. Looking at the macro structure from 2020 until now, Bitcoin has been respecting a major multi-year ascending trendline. If we apply the Fibonacci retracement tool to the entire impulse wave, the current price action around $61k seems to be breaking down from the local channel. According to my chart, if the bearish momentum continues, here is the path I'm anticipating: 1. \*\*The $49k Support (0.705 Fib):\*\* We have a minor horizontal support here, but it might not be enough to hold the macro trend shift. 2. \*\*The Ultimate Bottom ($35,658 - 0.79 Fib):\*\* This is where it gets interesting. The 0.79 Fibonacci level perfectly aligns with our long-term macro trendline around late 2026 / early 2027. 3. \*\*The Macro Rebound:\*\* If this trendline holds, this exact macro confluence ($35k) will be the ultimate institutional accumulation zone, triggering a massive wave towards new all-time highs by 2028-2029. I know calling for a $35k BTC might sound extremely bearish to some right now, but historically, Bitcoin loves washing out over-leveraged traders and hitting deep Fib levels before a true macro expansion. What do you guys think? Is a drop to $35k in the cards, or will institutional ETF inflows prevent us from ever dipping this low again? Let's discuss! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

CanadianBaconne

Maybe this post is a wake up call. The NASDAQ 100 ETF continues chugging higher and Bitcoin technically at the moment isn't. Manage your own risk better and maybe it's time to cash out.

TheLongest1

The same way people invest in shares, ETF’s etc. it’s just an investment option. Some people are happy to take the risk. It’s purely a high risk investment.

usa2a

Yeah BTC's "block rewards will totally get replaced by txn fees" design wasn't intended for a world where most BTC users either: a. buy and HODL b. trade on a CEX c. buy through an ETF/holding company Only real solution is to get rid of the halving and accept permanent block rewards, which ends the "there will only ever be 21m bitcoins" claim, but in the long run, what's worse: 21m bitcoins on an insecure network, or "infinite" (growing at a controlled rate) bitcoin on a secure one.

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Post is by: ChillGuy383 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ueuza4/sp_cracking_iran_deal_dead_fed_hawkish_a/ This week the NASDAQ took a 3.5% dive in a single day. Korean market dropped 10% - the largest single-day drop in their history. The Iran peace deal was signed and dead within the same week. The Fed officially priced in 2-3 hikes this year, dot plot reversed, higher-for-longer is back. BTC ETFs just printed the worst 30-day outflow stretch in their entire history at $6.4B. BTC itself is grinding toward $59k while everyone watches their portfolio bleed for what feels like the millionth straight month. The next few months are going to be ugly. Anyone telling you otherwise is selling you something. But a lot of people in this sub are about to make a really expensive mistake - panic-selling what's left, or burning all their dry powder too early because the pain feels endless. Here's what nobody's talking about. Every concrete bearish catalyst right now is short-term and largely priced in. Oil takes 2-3 months to flow back to normal even if a deal eventually gets signed. The Fed stays hawkish until inflation rolls over, which can't happen until oil moves. The IPO supply wave - SpaceX done, Anthropic filed, OpenAI weeks away, Stripe and Databricks queued - keeps sucking liquidity out of the broader market through Q3. But every single one of those catalysts has a forced resolution baked in. The SPR runs out in 4 weeks (Trump literally said this on camera). The administration has no choice but to get oil flowing because the US economy can't function with $90+ oil for any extended period. Once Hormuz reopens, inflation rolls over and the Fed gets cover to ease. The IPO calendar empties by end of Q4. This isn't 2022 contagion where you didn't know which counterparty blew up next, this is a macro-driven, policy-resolvable drawdown with a clear mechanical resolution over the next 6 months. Mentally prepare for BTC in the $40k zone. Many serious analysts are calling for sub-$50k, and the structural setup supports it - equity unwind, ETF redemptions, hawkish Fed, oil shock. If you can't stomach $40k BTC without selling, your position is already too large and you should be sizing down on bounces rather than capitulating into weakness. But if you can stomach it, this is the cleanest accumulation window we've had in years. The people who made generational money in previous bear markets didn't time the exact bottom. They accumulated steadily through the worst sentiment readings in the asset class' history, kept buying when it felt insane, and were emotionally prepared for prices to keep falling for months after they started. So here's the playbook. Save cash aggressively. Cut expenses now, while you still have time to build a position. Accumulate gradually as prices fall, don't blow your wad on the first big down candle, the bottom is a process not an event. And critically, don't sell your existing positions to wait for the bottom. Selling locks in losses AND ejects you from the recovery. If you need fiat for any reason, borrow against your crypto on platforms like Nexo and Ledn at conservative LTVs (under 25% given the downside scenarios above) instead of outright selling. Your position stays on the table for the recovery, you still get the liquidity, this is how you keep optionality alive. The entire setup for the next bull cycle is being constructed right now - Fed pivot, oil normalization, IPO supply digested, regulatory clarity emerging, and trillions in AI tech wealth looking for its next rotation target. Every dollar you deploy during the bloodbath compounds against the eventual resolution of every single one of these catalysts. I can't stress this enough: save aggressively, accumulate gradually, don't be a hero. The next bull market is being priced in right now and the cost of admission is sitting through 3-6 months of looking stupid while everyone else capitulates. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

ShortElephant1111

i bought one of the first bitcoin ETFs (if not the first in 2021). i paid \~$9. I kept building my position to sub $4. Sized up before the 2024 halving. Lots of trading and writing covered calls. It became 20% of my portfolio at the peak. I started selling meaningful size when this ETF was in the 20's. When it broke 100k i was mostly out. I've sat in front of markets for 40 years and this has been one of my favourite and easiest trades. At my peak position size I had 750k in this ETF and currently at about 5k, essentially a place holder. My total gain was 8x. My thesis remains the same as the day i first purchased. Bitcoin is the only finite asset in the world and adoption continues to ramp. But I'll happily sit on the sidelines until there is a meaningful trend reversal. Price action will give me this signal while i wait and watch. Blindly DCAing is a fools errand.

Laukess

Who cares. As more normies enter the market the ETF's will grow. I prefer ETF's to what Strategy is doing, but it's not like Saylor holds 800k bitcoin. MSTR holder have the option to sell and buy bitcoin or ETF's if they want. I wouldn't mind if he was sacrificed if it meant more self custody bitcoin, but I fear they would just move to an ETF.

MichaelHawkson

How do the returns compare when I sell my SP500 ETF in a tax free registered account (or, TFSA in Canada) vs selling BTC from a non registered account? OP is forgetting about that too.

Accomplished-Lion144

The price of BTC has risen 2k since I posted the original post here.... Why would you think 70k is not possible in a week or so? Look at the liquidity as well as the ETF inflows the last few hours. You can thank me later.

East-Response6672

How is MSTR holding up? ... Oh. Oof. ETF inflows you say, in this lending environment? Sure OP, sure.

Dangerous_Prior_5834

I do exactly the same but with an S&P 500 ETF

egoldbarzzz

Your thesis is ETF inflows will cause the price to rise above $70k within “a week or so”? Just put the fries in the bag…

xaviemb

Data is Data. \~25% of Bitcoin has been held less than 1 year. In the last 24 hours this has made up 99.4% all movement (selling, consolidating, moving etc...) \~75% of BTC hasn't moved in over 1 year. In the last 24 hours this group (15m BTC) has represented 0.6% of all movement (selling, consolidating, moving etc...) \[please note, every and all ETF, and exchange trades sit and resolve within the 25% figure every day as an aggregate. You cannot move actual Bitcoin (buy, sell or otherwise) without it showing up in that data\]

Suspicious-Holiday42

ETF get sold

YouCoin-Legacy

It's interesting that despite Bitcoin hovering around $62k-$63k, long-term holders seem to be accumulating during these ETF outflows while the market watches the Fed's stance. What do you all think about the 4-year cycle or the measuring stick changing?

Suspicious-Holiday42

My heart hurts every time btc goes down because of ETF sellers

Ok-Astronaut4952

People who aren’t idiots don’t hold their money in USD save for an emergency fund. Nobody is comparing it to holding USD. They’re saying opportunity cost wise it’s not really a good risk/reward alternative to just buying s&p500 ETF’s or whatever

eToroTeam

The drawdowns are real. The point isn't that price hasn't fallen, it's that it hasn't fallen as much as the ETF outflow volume would suggest it should. Hundreds of millions leaving weekly with only a 17% monthly move implies something is absorbing the selling. The question is what and for how long.

Muted-Interaction-79

Ur better off putting life savings into an ETF than crypto tbh, I didn't even put much back when Bitcoin was at 80k and I put 3k, made 6k back when it reached 150k (CAD btw) and only kept 1k to play around with (now down 400 dollars) go figure.

GeoSystemsDeveloper

**Daily crypto TL;DR:** * ⚠️ Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced price drops due to ongoing ETF outflows. * ⚠️ Federal Reserve's hawkish stance at June meeting signals potential rate hikes, negatively affecting risk assets. * ⚠️ Stalled US-Iran peace talks heightened geopolitical uncertainty, impacting Bitcoin's price. * ⚠️ Ethereum Foundation reduced staff by 20%, adding downward pressure on ETH price. * 🚀 Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) market cap surpassed $51 billion, indicating strong growth and institutional interest. *News summary from the* [*HODLings app*](https://www.geosystemsdev.com/products/hodlings/)*.*

Current_Inevitable43

your stupid beacuse you put all your eggs in one basket. i jave a few btc (single digits) eth. But also own 5 properties and a fair bit in ETF's Will btc crash beats me noone knows. But noone sane would put 100% into it

SargeMaximus

Friendly reminder that the inverse ETF is MSTZ

RustyCEO

Wow the stories in here are scary. 😐 never bought any, don’t think I will, other than through an ETF. I am pretty happy with my income ETF portfolio, currently $1.5M US value earning me $47k a month before tax. Anyway, wish you guys all the best. 👍🏻💰

GrokM14232

BTC-NDX correlation ticked back up this month. when global liquidity is the dominant variable, the crypto/equity separation matters less than the narrative wants it to. the thesis that BTC decouples from risk assets in drawdowns has not held consistently. the $62k level is mostly a headline. the more informative signal is whether spot ETF inflows reverse - that is a better gauge of institutional conviction than price.

Due-Influence0523

Feels like ETF selling is getting absorbed for now but these quiet stretches usually end with a violent move

Brave_Respect1975

No, bitcoin is for everyone if it comes in an ETF wrapper, you have your own node, hold it on an exchange or self custody in cold storage ♥️

Khioneli

You are better off putting it in a ETF!

shinglehouse

Sigh, sorry. Good luck brother. NFA at all but if it were ME I'd roll it into the S$P 500 ETF, about the same overall returns as BTC but it will take a few years to recover thise losses.

Laukess

Who are these institutions? Are you talking about MSTR and the ETF's? An ETF holding a lot of bitcoin on behalf of retail isn't that big a deal to me. I would prefer if people would self custody, but people are free to choose. I'm happy that the insanely rich people haven't started buying insane amounts yet, so we can get broader adoption, but I'm sure that'll change at some point.

SooperYuk

This isn’t ETF. Everything is changing before your eyes watch how the platform is restructured

DarthBen_in_Chicago

They do not have an ETF. They are still around. For those that don’t want ETFs in their IRA but prefer the real thing, use Swan. (I prefer Unchained Capital as their fees are lower.)

Live_Jazz

Are you referring to their new RBX product? That’s a tool to swap from an ETF to actual Bitcoin without a tax it, which is a huge win. Sean doesn’t offer ETF’s itself. The IRA products involve Swan being the custodian, but that’s the nature of the beast. I don’t think there’s a way to self custody BTC in a retirement tax sleeve.

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Post is by: AIautoagent1 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1udn00j/are_cbdcs_being_dangerously_underpriced_as_they/ The thing that should have everyone’s attention right now isn’t another ETF approval, it’s how fast CBDC pilots are moving from whitepapers to live rails while most crypto people aren’t even pricing it in. If you look at the Atlantic Council’s CBDC tracker, we’re past the “maybe someday” phase. China’s e-CNY is in large-scale pilot with real volumes, the ECB is moving the digital euro into a preparation phase, India is scaling out its wholesale and retail pilots, and Brazil’s Drex project is pushing toward production. Over 130 countries are exploring this, and the IMF, BIS, and WEF are all openly framing CBDCs as the next layer of the global monetary system, not a side experiment. In parallel, US policymakers are still “studying” a digital dollar, but Congress is already debating the policy issues, and the Fed is building the plumbing via instant payment rails and research programs. From a macro lens, this sits on top of three big trends: stealth dollar debasement through structurally higher deficits, gradual de-dollarization at the margins as BRICS+ push alternative payment rails, and institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a reserve-like macro asset via ETFs and balance-sheet allocation. CBDCs don’t kill crypto; they formalize the state-controlled version of digital money. That actually sharpens Bitcoin’s value prop as the only large-scale, non-sovereign, bearer digital asset. The risk is less “they ban BTC tomorrow” and more that CBDCs make it trivial to enforce capital controls, programmable taxes, and blacklisting. If you hold your “crypto” in a KYC’d walled garden with no self-custody, you’re basically holding a high-beta CBDC proxy. Because of that, CBDC acceleration has made self-custody non-negotiable for me. I keep everything off exchanges in self-custody on a Ledger — the whole point of crypto is the exit: https://shop.ledger.com/?r=earning-hq&utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=ledger. For fiat on/off and some regulated exposure, I still think Coinbase is the most compliant US ramp: https://coinbase.com/join/earning-hq?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=coinbase. Curious how everyone here is actually pricing CBDC risk in portfolios. Are you adjusting your BTC/ETH vs. stablecoin mix? Thinking more in terms of jurisdictional diversification? Or mostly ignoring CBDCs as noise until launch dates get locked in? Ledger and Coinbase links are affiliate links. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Short_Thanks8901

You're right that they don't market-buy on an app. Two separate problems, buying and storing, handled by two different setups. Buying: they use OTC desks, over the counter. You ask for a quote on a block, say 50 million dollars, and the desk fills it off the order book so it doesn't move the price against you. Run by the institutional arms of the exchanges (Coinbase Prime, Kraken) and independent desks like Cumberland and Galaxy. Retail buys at the screen price, they negotiate a block and settle privately. Storing: regulated qualified custodians, Coinbase Custody, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, Anchorage. Keys split across multiple signers and locations, cold storage, insured, audited. A family office isn't holding a seed phrase in a drawer, they're paying a custodian who carries the liability. The ones who don't even want the keys just buy the spot ETF (IBIT and friends) and let BlackRock handle custody. That's a big chunk of the institutional flow you read about in the headlines, and it never touches a self-custodied wallet at all.

LetWinnersRun

Is hiding it inside an ETF a good way?

RussChival

1) I believe many HNW's use institutional-grade custody services (like Coinbase's HNW servies) that will will use incremental purchase programs and secure custodial wallets to optimize purchasing and storage. 2) Some HNW's that want to stay off the grid will use Over the Counter (OTC) services, either privately or via institutions that will manage cold-wallet swaps between parties. 3) With ETF's now well-established, institutions and those with large portfolios can simply buy Bitcoin ETF's and stay highly-liquid and secure as well.

Suspicious_Finger512

MiCA compliance opens the floodgates for European institutional liquidity. While the SEC continues to drag its feet in the US, Ripple is quietly locking down the regulated global markets. Will this ETF volume actually trigger a supply shock on-chain?

Patient_Craft2195

That's a fair complication — ETF custody flows have definitely polluted the exchange outflow signal since January 2024. Glassnode has tried to adjust for it by tracking known ETF custodian addresses separately but it's not perfect. The cleaner signal now is probably the HODL waves combined with spent output age bands — if old coins aren't moving during price dips that's genuine conviction holding, harder to fake with custody mechanics

eToroTeam

Fair, but the ETF outflow/price divergence isn't really a chart pattern, it's a flow imbalance. That does tell you something about current supply and demand dynamics, even if it can't tell you when or how it resolves.

eToroTeam

HODL waves and exchange outflows make sense as filters, though exchange outflows have been noisier since ETF custody arrangements started moving coins off exchanges for reasons that have nothing to do with cold storage conviction. Does that complicate the signal for you or do you have a way to strip that out?

eToroTeam

Time-based capitulation is real, people stop caring more than they panic sell. Does the ETF wrapper change that in your view, or do you think institutional holders eventually fold the same way retail does?

Pape_bag

that makes sense to me. miners selling less coins each cycle used to be a much bigger deal when the market was smaller. now one big ETF week or some macro news can move things way more than the old supply story. the halving will still matter but maybe more in the background than as the whole plot

Patient_Craft2195

The absorption scenario is actually more bullish than it looks. If hundreds of millions in ETF outflows aren't moving price, someone is buying every single one of those coins. The question is who — long term holders, institutions quietly accumulating, or just market makers. Quiet sessions before a big move are more common than people remember. Could break either way but sustained selling that doesn't move price is rarely bearish for long.

GeoSystemsDeveloper

**Daily crypto TL;DRIn short:** * ℹ️ Bitcoin holds near $64K as ETF outflows slow but persist. * ⚠️ Hawkish Fed outlook continues to pressure crypto; rate cuts unlikely. * ℹ️ US-Iran peace talks ease geopolitical tensions, offering brief crypto lift. * ℹ️ Crypto sentiment in "Extreme Fear" while long-term holders buy Bitcoin. *News summary from the* [*HODLings app*](https://www.geosystemsdev.com/products/hodlings/)*.*

delphiquant26

What might change things is ETF and institutional participation. As those flows get bigger, the market may start pricing in halvings much earlier. In that case, the cycle doesn't necessarily disappear — it just becomes less obvious and more front-run. As for hyperbitcoinization, I don't see a sudden collapse of fiat currencies happening. A more realistic path is Bitcoin gaining traction first in high-inflation countries and then gradually spreading as governments and central banks diversify reserves. If history is any guide, reserve currency transitions usually take decades, not years.

delphiquant26

The 4-year cycle is a supply shock story - halving cuts issuance in half, and historically that collides with demand that can't adjust fast enough. But as ETF and institutional flows deepen, the market starts pricing in the halving well in advance. At that point the cycle doesn't break, it just front-runs itself until the signal becomes noise. On hyperbitcoinization - a sudden collapse seems unlikely. More realistic is it starting in high-inflation economies and slowly spreading as sovereigns quietly diversify reserves. Fiat doesn't implode overnight, it leaks. And if history is any guide, reserve currency transitions take decades, not years. 

Bluejumprabbit

Still real enough to matter, just messier now because ETF flows and treasury buyers keep muting the clean post halving rhythm people got used to.

trogdor1234

“ETF demand already in play” Uh what.

word-dragon

I have no problem with Michael Saylor. My main concern with MSTR is that so many people equate investing in MSTR is investing in bitcoin. It’s not. MSTR sells financial instruments which are powered by bitcoin. When you invest in MSTR you are buying Michael Saylor’s strategy for using bitcoin, not bitcoin itself. Nothing wrong with that as long as you realize that you’re not investing in bitcoin or even bitcoin proxies via an ETF or an exchange.

delphiquant26

The ETF question is the right one to focus on. Previous cycles had mostly retail-driven selloffs — panic was the main mechanism. Institutional participation changes that dynamic somewhat, but it doesn't eliminate it

Kitchen_Net_GME

Lots of people expecting $38K - $42 as a low. Of those opinions, vast majority thinks this will occur in October. There is also quite a few people who think we hit bottom in the $58K -$60K range. These are the two major camps. And to your point, it’s likely something different. Perhaps it’s weeks/months of sideways trading with brief blips down near $54$ - $55K and brief spikes to $68K - $70K. In which, the longer we trade sideways the more people will now assume the latter. Thus creating a 3rd camp that will now house a lot of people. I’m very interested which way it goes. I am surprised BTC is around 70-72K mark right now. Something about it feels off. When XRT (retail ETF) goes up, then normally Bitcoin goes up too. Since May 19, XRT is up 8%. Bitcoin down 16%. With few exceptions that is very very rare.

Rygards

I bought $SNK, Graniteshares 2x Short ETF. Today I am up 32% 

excelance

Why does what other people do with Bitcoin impact your Bitcoin? So what if other people are buying an ETF? I own Bitcoin AND the ETF... why? Because my 401k can't access Bitcoin directly so I have to go into an ETF. Anyone acting surprised where we're at doesn't realize that it was always going to happen. You think an asset grows to a trillion plus dollars and governments and corporations weren't going to jump in? I'm surprised it took as long as it did to be honest.

clintstorres

Because you sell stock then each share has less and less ownership of the total Bitcoin. Why would you own a stock where the btc is gradually going down each week when you can just own Bitcoin outright or an ETF where your amount stays the same.

Sola-Nova

I think it will crash in to nothing eventually, but I put in what I was happy to lose ten years go (£50) traded on exchanges and cashed some cryptos out gradually to 20x what I put in. The rest that is still in bitcoin and cryptos is 'house money' if it hits ATH great if not and the vaule tanks, I can live with that as well. My life wont be dramatically different whatever happens and Im comfortable with that. Anyone wants to go all in with bitcoin on savings thats their business but at that point its gambling, not investing. Even on the stock markets its why ETF's exist so are 'investments' are not potentially tied to a single CEO or a single business.

ghostchihuahua

Simple really: many people buy in w/o having a clue ; they see the investment as risky bc they do not understand the fundamentals (not only of bitcoin), they still leverage against it, and panic-sell at the slightest breeze. This, plus market-maker intervention and fuckery, and you have yourself the byc market at the moment. Note that the fact that bitcoin ETF’s are a thing, the market’s moodswings should affect bitcoin mechanically.

Few_Slip_4752

Why not put a little money into a BTC short ETF? Put $1000-10000in to SBIT and see if a true downturn materiaizes. If it does, you'll be making 2x on your $1k and you'll feel better that you have a little hedge and if not, not.

Emerlad0110

with the life-changing six I would've sold in 2025 during the all time, said he had it for awhile so I'm sure during then as well; that's around $760k at that time, then put it into all ETF with a 70-30 us intln split, historically 6-10% a year. in 10 years only that's a mil, 13 years with 2.5k monthly contributions and your living off 150k a month. key is to not look at it or gamble it or mismanage it

WeakEstablishment686

A couple things: 1. If you’re young and have stable income, continue to invest but diversify into an all market ETF or some strong individual stocks (Google amazon etc). 2. I wouldn’t necessarily say you need to sell a portion of BTC, but I think with any asset, it’s slightly foolish to think we can predict exactly when the next bull run will take place. Bitcoin could be special, and it’s proven it multiple times to follow a scarily similar pattern, but nothing says we can’t stay at these levels or lower past October. I wouldn’t expect that, but there’s a non zero risk. Having 100% of your money in anything comes with some risk, just depends on your age and appetite.

Jogi1811

Currently all in BTC leveraged/covered call ETF. Only because price dropped 80% and we are in the low cycle of BTC and if it continues to follow its historic cycles should start to go back up by October of next year 6 months before the halving happens. If this continues to happen at somewhere near the top I will cash out and re-diversify my holding into 6 core etfs and 1 aggressive play again. Basically wash rinse and repeat if the cycle continues.

Long_Disaster_6847

You could try doing a carry trade Borrow BTC and always keep the ltv low at 20-25% and use those funds to buy a covered calls etf like SPYI that yields 10-12% and just pay back the loan Once the ltv reaches 15% ish you can borrow more and buy more SPYI and rinse and repeat When you have enough cash flow coming in you could just dedicate it to pay off the whole balance you borrowed and keep SPYI or similar ETF(s) as a cash flowing asset for every day purchases Don’t just let it sit in your bank account, if your interest rate is 4-7% to borrow, find something that yields higher than that plus a little bit more to account for taxes and inflation

Any_Carob3372

It does not mean anything that people weren't talking about ETF accumulation before the ETFs existed. Did you consider that money chasing energy is going into AI now, when prior to the AI rush it was powering BTC bull runs? That's MY biggest concern rn for old man BTC.

Babad00k123

SpaceX is fairly rational, since its IPO actually. Low float, no insider selling possible, everyone is betting on a pop then a bust and forced Index ETF buying, so the stock goes up. Actually very rational.

ClearSnakewood

And so what is your advice after this “experience”? Let me guess: To store our coin with Conbase or Blackrock’s ETF I suppose? They will keep our coin “safe”

TheBestintheWest11

I don't get it. Didn't the SEC approve SHIB ETF?

Prnce_Chrmin

> A couple thousand at $.25? Dude, you've won. Cash it all in, roll it all in a NASDAQ ETF and live on the 4% rule. Can you squeek by on $136k a year? I would if I could. Thx I sold some before when it was higher. I dont need $136k a year I had a beautiful Penthouse at the beach in spain for just about 500€ and I love some actually healthy foods which are usually cheap. I dont need a villa or yacht other than join my friends sometimes sailing out, but I honestly would have a hard time getting anywhere even close to spending $10k since I dont see how it would improve my quality of life at all. Quite the opposite. I do would love to build something to help people but I am struggling to find something, so far. Like it needs to be something to help people help themselves, so not as in a donation but rather teaching people to fish so they are fed for a lifetime. So maybe like education or teaching. How would you even live on $136k a year, like just move to an expensive city and get a super luxurious place in that budget or lease a lambo etc? haha

wgcole01

A couple thousand at $.25? Dude, you've won. Cash it all in, roll it all in a NASDAQ ETF and live on the 4% rule. Can you squeek by on $136k a year? I would if I could.

Xyrus2000

Take that $200K, put it in a broad market ETF, and let it ride. In about 16 years, you'll have your first million. That is the best and least stupid way to do it. But it's your money. Play stupid games. Win stupid prizes.

1corn

You could bet on 200 different coins and still the most likely outcome is that each of these 200 will flop or at least won't compensate for the losses in the other coins. What's your time horizon? Because the goal itself is not unrealistic. With just a bit of luck and a lot of discipline, you could be a millionaire within, say, 15 years. If you put the full 200,000 into MSCI World or similar and get an 8% return on average, and then save another $1.000 monthly that you immediately put into the ETF, you would have $1,009,000 after 15 years. Yeah that's optimistic, but definitely possible. Worst case, it will take 5 years longer. And if the whole market collapses, all of this will be the least of your worries. Because by then, you either have escape-on-a-spaceship-tier wealth or you're f\* anyway.

swampwiz

I would only buy a BTC ETF. Or course, just like if you sell any security, you'll owe capital gains tax. And there is no way that anyone not deep into the black market would be able to unload any BTC without tax; in fact, unloading BTC allows for money laundering,

Catbatt

First of all, I stopped caring and buying alts long ago. A lot of Bitcoiners go through the process of "oh BTC is too expensive, I'm going to try a 1000x moonshot altcoin" only to get burned at worst or do some modest gains at best and then realize it would have been better to just go 100% BTC from the beginning. So fuck altcoins. I'm only interested in Bitcoin. That being said, I have a certian goal in mind. At some point I want to sell 75% of it and buy a few good, spread out ETF's and start enjoying the yearly gains of that.

Fluid_Job623

if amount is under 100k€ the ETF route seems totally fine for your use case, not every person needs to go full self-custody 😂

RouteToDevNull

You are confusing cash deposit insurance with investment protection. The 100k guarantee only covers your actual cash, not crypto or ETFs, which carry total market risk. Moving to an ETF solves the headache of managing your own private keys and seed phrase, but you are swapping that for counterparty risk if the fund provider goes under or messes up. Just remember that ETFs are investments that can lose value, and you get zero insurance if the market crashes or the fund fails.

baIIern

"Being in Bitcoin for 5 years most probably made you lose money, while with a simple ETF, we would've made a 2x" - here you are 😃

Educational_Cable405

The meme part isn't really the issue, the liquidity is. An ETF has to buy or sell the underlying every time shares are created or redeemed. With BTC that's a deep market so it barely moves the needle. Push SHIB sized orders through a thinner book and the fund price starts drifting off the actual token. The wrapper doesn't fix illiquidity, it just puts a ticker on it.

Asleep_Onion

Texas has no Bitcoin, they put some investment funds in a Bitcoin ETF. Almost all the other states also are not buying Bitcoin, their reserve is built with seized Bitcoin just like the US's reserve. Hardly anyone is actually *buying* Bitcoin for large reserves.

Hephalumpicus

Even with countries, ETF's and private companies getting in the game, with self custody also comes the ability to send it worldwide, without intervention of the banks or different governments; with minimal fees.

Beginning_Ask_9930

Stablecoins are the liquidity that keeps this Ponzi going. You can't use BTC dominance anymore. Three other ways to asses the market. It also hard to have dominance either the ETF and the size of the derivative market. Since you missed these things. Not sure about the analysis.

nora_falcon_1992

solid breakdown. The shrinking drawdown percentages each cycle is something that dont get talked about enough, and the ETF flow data backs up why the floor might genuinely be higher this time around. Ive been dcaing too but lately been using aΙphasquared to adjust how much I put in based on their risk score. When risk is low I go heavier, when it's elevated I scale back. Takes a lot of the emotional guesswork out of it especially during weeks like this where everything feels like the sky is falling. the Peter Brandt $60k retest scenario is interesting to me. Even if that happens, a 53% drawdown from ATH would still be the shallowest correction in BTC history by a wide margin. That alone tells you something about structural demand changes. Whether the bottom is in or we grind lower through the summer, the playbook hasn't rly changed for people with a multi-year horizon.

Alone_Round_591

The scale comparison here is pretty frightening when you lay it out like that. If MSTR starts unwinding, there is no circuit breaker big enough to stop the cascade through all the ETF exposure alone.

cestbondaeggi

Marketcap is utterly meaningless and is only useful for pointing out unit bias. If peopel are willing to pay 10 million for a bitcoin, then the marketcap will be 21millionX 10million. It's irrelevent to what buyers are willing to pay. The second paragraph is spot on. IMO the ETF was the last big milestone. Everyone has heard of bitcoin. The space was basically DOA in 2018 but DEFI summer happened, people got rich, and interest got renewed and scammers came back. The same could happen again but as of right now I'd say it's over.

BringTheFingerBack

I can't imagine the Blackrock ETF with fail.

riscten

What's more convenient for the majority is almost never the best solution. ETFs carry their own risks, on top of literally going against what Bitcoin is all about. Bitcoin was created to move away from behind-the-curtains traditional banking shenanigans. By holding Bitcoin in an ETF, you're running straight back towards that paradigm. The more Bitcoin is held in ETFs, the more its value as a durable wealth preservation medium erodes. Self custody does have a learning curve, but once you get the basics, the risks are near zero, much lower than with ETFs. If your self-custody fails because of a single mistake, you're clowning around.

the_rich_millennial

Not in this century, nor in the centuries where people become multi-planetary. Productivity and energy will always be linked to scarcity and that will always have inherent value. A government crackdown is nowhere close unless you can completely shut off the internet on land, air, and sea. It would take all the ASICs chips and >$20 billion per attempt to try and attack the network. Even then, the protocol would just be updated and forked so the holders of all the hardware would be screwed financially. The long term floor is absolute scarcity in a world where we have exponential AI abundance on the cognitive side, in additional to trustless neutrality, portability, and scalability. The floor comes in when institutions are buying it behind the tape at low prices while weak retail hands are forced out of their leveraged positions. Blackrock, JP Morgan, and ETF's coming in makes the uncertainty lower than it ever has been. Satoshis wallets have never been touched ever, not a single SAT, since the days of immaculate conception. The best investigators have spent years trying to pinpoint who it could be and the most likely individuals are all already dead, waiting for cryo-technology to wake them up in the future. No living person or group of people on earth who has any modicum of a life would leave that kind of value untouched for over 17 years. The only rational explanation is that they are long dead and corroborated by years of exhaustive search that led nowhere. And even in the quantum world where those public keys are all visible, there may be a decision by all the collective miners to refuse the verification of those transactions to protect the network. Every product and service in any industry in a free market has bids and asks that people are willing to pay for. The ones who will be paying for it in the billions and trillions? Agentic AI. There are no plans to give AI agents SSN's, passports, or ID's. They absolutely need a reserve and settlement layer that is borderless, permissionless, and serves as a store of value for their economic output.

BringTheFingerBack

One mistake with the seeds and it's all over. ETF is the way to go for the majority of people getting into crypto.

riscten

It's not. Self-custody is the absolute safest. ETF is for tax sheltering.

Pistarino17

# Confronto neutrale: Fiat vs Bitcoin # Moneta Fiat (€, $) **Cosa la sostiene davvero** * **Obbligo fiscale**: lo Stato impone tasse → devi procurarti quella valuta o vai in prigione * **Corso legale**: per legge nessuno può rifiutarla per pagare debiti * **Monopolio della violenza statale**: tribunali, polizia, esecuzioni forzate * **Sistema bancario a riserva frazionaria**: il credito crea domanda continua di valuta **Punti deboli** * **Inflazione**: le banche centrali possono stampare a volontà (M2 USD +40% nel 2020-2022) * **Censurabile**: conti congelabili (es. camionisti canadesi 2022, sanzioni) * **Svalutazione storica**: lira → 2000:1 vs marco tedesco in 50 anni * **Richiede fiducia nello Stato emittente** (vedi Argentina, Venezuela, Libano, Turchia) # Bitcoin **Cosa lo sostiene davvero** * **Scarsità matematica**: massimo 21 milioni, non modificabile * **Decentralizzazione**: nessuna autorità può stamparne di più o congelarlo * **Effetto rete**: \~15 anni di storia, \~$1-2 trilioni di capitalizzazione, milioni di utenti * **Costo di produzione reale**: il mining consuma energia elettrica misurabile (≈150 TWh/anno) * **Adozione istituzionale**: ETF spot approvati (USA gennaio 2024), riserve aziendali (MicroStrategy, Tesla) **Punti deboli** * **Volatilità estrema**: -80% nel 2022, pessimo come unità di conto a breve termine * **Velocità transazioni**: \~7 TPS on-chain (Visa ne fa migliaia) → richiede Lightning Network * **Consumo energetico**: dibattito aperto su sostenibilità * **Concentrazione**: \~2% degli indirizzi detiene \~95% dei BTC * **Rischio regolatorio**: gli Stati possono limitarne l'uso (Cina l'ha bannato)

atlasayn

**Local bottom is probably in. Cycle bottom, probably not. So yes — good spot to buy, but know which bottom you're buying.** Here's the playbook I've been running since June: → **June floor: 58-62k.** Confirmed by funding flipping negative + longs fully flushed + ETF flows turning. → **Bounce to 68-70k, then reject.** We're in this leg now. RSI already overbought — don't chase it here. → **Retest 63-64k** (higher low, holds above the June floor). → **Summer rally to 73-82k** into late July. Fed is on hold through July, so the path is clear. → **Range, then risk-off into October.** Macro is the catalyst — Fed meetings Sep 16 / Oct 28 are where rate-hike odds spike. **That's where the real cycle bottom likely prints, IF the macro turns.** **The key:** the June low is a floor to accumulate, not the final low. Buy the dips, keep dry powder for October. If macro stays calm and ETF inflows hold, June *was* the cycle bottom and we just go up — but I'd rather have ammo for October and not need it than need it and not have it. Not financial advice, just the map I'm trading.

Friendly-Profit-8590

The difference this time, to me, is the ETF’s. It made getting exposure to bitcoin significantly easier for everyone.

Any-Coconut1991

Strange no big buys from ETF's today.

FastMoon1993

Interesting breakdown on the SpaceX rotation thesis. i hadnt seen anyone quantify the ETF outflows against the IPO timeline that cleanly, so that's useful context even if correlation isn't causation. The galaxy research $40-46K bear case is worth keeping on the radar but think people underestimate how much of the current fear index reading is already pricing in stuff like that. extreme fear at 13 with a known catalyst (the IPO drain) now behind us is a different setup than extreme fear with unknown risks stacking up ahead. I've been scaling into positions through this too but trying to be more systematic about it rather than just vibes-based buying. Been using alphasquared lately which gives a daily risk score for btc and a few other assets, and it basically tells me to buy heavier when risk is low and ease off when it climbs.. Keeps me from doing the classic thing where I buy the same amount every week regardless of whether we're at extreme fear or euphoria. The MSCI passive buying point you raised is actually pretty significant imo because that structural demand for SPCX means the active rebalancing pressure should fade, which removes one headwind. Whether that's enough to call a bottom who knows, but the setup going into Q3 looks cleaner than it did three weeks ago.

MossHeron2002

solid post. The ETF structural floor argument is the one thing that actually makes this cycle feel different to me, not just vibes but actual data showing consistent inflows even during the drawdown. Whether that means we bottom shallower or just recover faster is the interesting question. Ive been dcaing through this too but I switched to scaling my buys based on risk level instead of just flat amounts every week. Been using aΙphasquared for that, it spits out a daily risk score and I just buy more when risk is low and less when its high. Takes a lot of the "should I buy now or wait" anxiety out of it. The 50% drawdown with fear index at 13 is exactly the kinda environment where you want a system telling you to lean in harder rather than your gut telling you to hide. The Peter Brandt $60k retest scenario is interesting too. if we get there I'm not mad about it, just means cheaper accumulation before the next leg.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (air-gapped) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is not air-gapped. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (air-gapped) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is not air-gapped. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

BrokenHefaistos

I hope his ETF's implode. Crypto was our game not wallstreets

jawni

BMNR is just a company that buys ETH, they aren't actually a 1.5x leveraged ETH ETF.

zesushv

In my humble opinion, very cool. He is doing what he says he would do. The only shocker was when he sold 32 btc, many including me thought the accumulation phase had ended; obviously not. Strategy is singlehandedly pumping back into btc what ETF outflow drained, imagine what happens when the ETF inflows returns *[btc to 200k - easy, not a financial advice].*

Freeloader_

people saying no are stupid every rich man is investing borrowed money and not their own it depends on what interest you can get I could borrow money for 3,5% interest. it was a no brainer to take it. anything will beat that (stocks, crypto, ETF) so if you have a pretty low interest and you can comfortably afford to pay it monthly, then sure also dont take some gigantic amount that would send you under a bridge if something catastrophic happened

vium99

Well ETF inflows were and are not structural positive, they were negative the last months mostly, but for all the other Im with you.