ETF

Bluejumprabbit

A chunk of these outflows is the cash and carry basis trade unwinding, once the CME futures premium compressed the arb desks pull the ETF leg and dump spot. It reads as fear in the headlines but a lot of it is just the funding spread no longer paying enough to hold the hedge.

OutlandishnessLimp25

Condolences on the loss of your dad. Pause in this moment and understand the fact that he owned Bitcoin made him smart, or at a minimum, curious and doubtful about the dollar. Your Bitcoin is already invested. Think of the vehicle the dollars sit in, that’s what it is invested in. For example, say he left you Apple stock, the US dollars are invested in Apple stock, so you’d have to sell the Apple stock and you’d be left with US dollars (if you’re in the US). With Bitcoin, you’d have to get rid of Bitcoin and be left with US dollars. Depending on how you own Bitcoin would determine exactly how you’d sell it. (Owning the Bitcoin directly or via an ETF etc.) In both examples above you would be choosing to have dollars instead of the other asset (Apple stock or Bitcoin). You’re essentially saying, “I’d rather have dollars instead” if you sell the other assets. Of course, it’s your inheritance and you can use the funds however you’d like, but I’d highly encourage you to first study Bitcoin before selling it—or at least meet with 2-3 financial advisors (depending on how much he left you this is a good idea in general). Here are a couple visuals to help you understand that US dollars over the longterm will steadily lose their value, while Bitcoin will steadily be worth more as time goes on. (Dollars are printed into an oblivion by the Fed, making them worth less and less over time.) In both examples, below, you’ll see, holding onto Bitcoin over large amounts of time is more valuable than holding onto dollars. https://ibb.co/sV1sLSV https://ibb.co/qWtxfmF Something to consider, Elon Musk, whether you love him, hate him or indifferent towards him, has chosen to hold Bitcoin as an investment via Tesla and SpaceX. He owns nearly $1Billion worth and has so for many years. Lastly, if you were my family member and I do realize your financial situation may vary and details do matter, but if you were my family asking me “what should I do” I would suggest Bitcoin is the absolute last thing I’d sell assuming you have other assets to sell before Bitcoin—and this would include selling a house before selling Bitcoin. The tricky part with the house example is, you may have family of your own and the house can be helpful for more people than just you, it also may have sentimental value. But over the next 5,10,20 years Bitcoin will be more valuable than a home. Educate yourself on what you own before you start selling stuff —this applies to Bitcoin and any other assets your dad may have left for you. Best of luck!

Huge_Position890

Thanks, all three are fair. I ran them as a locked follow-up: the rules, the power check and both our predictions were committed before any returns were computed. Short version: the result holds at the order level, and the ETF line was a split-sample story that I'm correcting. \*\*(1) Prints vs orders.\*\* You're right about the unit. In aggTrades, one taker order sweeping several price levels shows up as several prints. \- I rebuilt the ledger from the same 84 days. Prints with the same timestamp on the same side, back to back, were merged into one taker order. Then I re-ranked the top 1% by order size. \- The distortion is real: \- 57% of the selected orders consist of more than one print; \- only 68% of the originally selected prints fall inside a selected order. \- Merging by timestamp is an approximation. Before 2025 the files have millisecond stamps, so two separate takers in the same millisecond can merge (72% multi-print then). From 2025 the stamps are microseconds (45% multi-print). So I report the two eras separately. \- \*\*Result at the order level:\*\* pierced minus absorbed over 15 minutes is \*\*−1.54 bp, t −3.82\*\* (null 95%: 2.11). In the original it was −1.47 bp, t −3.59. \- Pierced: −1.03 bp. Absorbed: +0.16 bp. \- All three coins negative. \- Both timestamp eras negative: millisecond −1.92 (t −3.4), microsecond −1.16 (t −2.1). \- Power check: with no real effect it fires 5.5% of the time. A 0.5 bp give-back is caught 82% of the time. \*\*(2) Which horizon.\*\* 15 minutes was the pre-registered primary. 60 minutes was listed as descriptive in the locked file, but the post didn't say so; my mistake in the write-up. With a Bonferroni over both horizons, p goes from 0.0003 to 0.0007. Widening the Newey–West bandwidth from 2 to 8 days leaves t at −3.6 to −3.8. \*\*(3) The ETF line.\*\* You're right that "clear after the ETFs" was a split narrative. \- With an interaction term on the pooled day-level model, post-ETF minus pre-ETF is −0.38 bp, HAC t −0.37. There's no evidence of a regime difference. "Clear after" was just 65 days vs 19. \- I also checked for sign flips across half-years: 7 of 8 are negative in both ledgers, and the eighth is about zero (+0.06 / +0.2). \- Daily volatility doesn't moderate it either (t −0.8). So the card's sentence stands at the order level: after a big order pierces, the price gives a little back on average. It's 1–2 bp, far below fees, so it's a description and not a signal.

Zerovaxqc

I personally will never sell mine but there are now Bitcoin ETF I mean there is no way Bitcoin will got to a million dollar and make us all giga rich. I doubt it will go up that much. 

Holywizy

Fair points. The "dump right as BTC loses the 50-day" timing does look a bit too neat, and $22M is small change for him. Could easily be clearing the deck to buy back lower. Agree on not trading off one guy's mood though. I mostly found it interesting as a sentiment signal alongside the ETF outflows. Curious whether the $80K support holds this week.

Interesting_Talk7144

bitcoin is for holding your own keys not for giving money to blackrock. cold card hack was a mess but still better than any ETF. ledger is closed source so I would skip that. if you want something simple bitkey is okay but you lose some control. just pick a wallet where you control the seed and forget the rest

RetiredAvocado

Strike is alright for automatic purchases. You can set up something like $420 a month buy. If you want bitcoin just buy it and hold it. If you want ETF shares that's fine too. ETF will be easier they will handle tax maths for you when selling. Bitcoin gains tax is more complicated, you must keep track of each individual purchased lot, dates and cost basis, and report that when selling. If you are going to buy some of each, buy bitcoin all at once. Like whole $2500. One tax lot with one cost basis and one date. The ETF shares you can buy at whatever interval you like. Functional exchanges are Gemini, Coinbase, Kraken. Use the exchange side, not the vending service side. Usually they are called advanced or pro and offer limit orders with lower fees.

Zealousideal-Pay2642

If you're already planning to learn self-custody, skip the ETF. You'll just pay extra fees and miss the point of having actual keys. Start with Strike or River for recurring buys, the fees are tiny once you use their auto-purchase feature, and moving coins to a wallet is real simple there. For learning wallets, grab something like Sparrow and do a small test withdrawal first before you move larger amounts. The ETF only really make sense if you're using a tax-advantaged account where you can't hold actual bitcoin, otherwise I'd put all $5K in the real thing.

MeanTwo4080

Good points, although I dont know if btc will ever become money but this use case is not that important for me. Also I dont see buying ETF as a problem, if the etf buyers dont appreciate selfcustody it does change anything for me. It still an asset class unlike any other, which makes it unique and valuable in my view.

Internal-Map-4658

The ETF flows are one thing but the coldcard issue is bigger for people actually holding their own coins. I still prefer self custody, but now I check the device more careful before I sign anything. Maybe the answer is both, use etf for some exposure and keep cold storage for the rest

Generationhodl

can only tell you what I would do for myself I myself would do it, but only if you can survive 70-80% volatility and crashes without getting panic and you want to invest it longterm for at least 5+ years. Better 10-15 years. imagine investing 300k and watching it go back to 100k and sitting there for 1-2 years, if you can still sleep well, then its fine. remember, before investing in ANYTHING, do your own research, learn about it, learn as much as you can so you are building conviction and trust. The amount you invest into ANYTHING should be direct related to your knowledge and conviction about it. only use some long known and legit exchange / broker to buy bitcoin. IF you do self custody, be sure to know what you are doing. If too much stress then simply just buy the ETF.

quitting2021

Did you incur a capital gains on that? Or did you take a loss just so you can get it in an ETF?

EnderSword

Yeah, I'm doing the ETF route these days, also because there's tax shelter benefits for that. I haven't had to launder money or go on the run yet, but never say never.

_st4rlight_

At this point sell and buy an ETF Inb4: "blah blah decentraliziation blablah" - we are all in it for the Money. Yes, also you

sabrina-m-779

A spot ETF doesn't mechanically tie BTC to stocks; it gives brokerage investors another route to direct BTC exposure. Any correlation comes from how people trade it.

devCheckingIn

dem ETF flows 🤩

JustFunj

The true path is to dabble on 3 of them and if you can all 4. BTC + ETF + a business or “passive income” (which is a lie, there’s no thing as passive income you have to manage your drop shipping or your Airbnb. Source I have a Airbnb)

Dramatic-Tackle-792

Two thirds of Bitcoin owners are average Joes. These guys will hodl for a long time but life and death always happen and they will sell to buy lambo and homes, pay for kids college, invest in something new. There will be a supply for years from this just like mining. Hedge funds are for investors, pension funds, banks, insurance companies, etc. They want safe solid 30% growth every year. Big money have invested billions in setting up bitcoin exposure because they know they'll make trillions from derivative products and custdy fees. Sovereigns need some form of digital gold. There are different agendas, but China, Russia, Iran and Venezuela are already using Bitcoin to bypass sanctions. The BRICS nations want an alternative to USD settlement outside the SWIFT system that can't be weaponized like it was against Russia. Russia doesn't want to hoard yuan and China doesn't want bank vaults full of rubles. There needs to be a digital gold in between. Bitcoin is at every level of most African economies from small purchase to state level finance. China has spent billions buying influence and making roadways into the whole continent and they need Bitcoin for that trade. That's why they went from trying to ban Bitcoin to using Hong Kong as their crypto proxy. That's why Taiwan has legislation in the pipeline for a Bitcoin reserve. They'd never poke the bear without a nod from Beijing. 40 countries are in talks with Coinbase. Countries like Bhutan, Norway, Czech Republic, Switzerland, China, USA, UK, El Salvador, the Ukraine, Venezuela, Iran and Ethiopia already have it. Banking apps allow everyone to buy. Younger generations are able to change their banks by pushing a few buttons on their phones. They'll have all that boomer wealth in the next couple of decades and won't be as trusting of banks and investment firms. They do like Bitcoin. Banks know this and have no choice. No Bitcoin, no customers. EFTs are being used to suppress the price while institutions and banks are accumulating quietly. But for over a year all news, good or bad news was followed by changes in ETF flows that raised or lowered the price to flush out open interest. These coins were subsequently bought and moved to whale wallets. The miners are not dudes in garages, that's true. Those guys were forced out by big money manipulating the price so they could slow the roll out of new coins and buy more on their terms using OTC deals. This has been going on for years and it becomes more and more obvious from patterns repeating and the blockchain/wallet activity. So, yes, Wall Street can manipulate the price and has been doing so for a couple of years now, but bitcoin is at every level of the global economy and is global. Bitcoin is going to be a lot bigger than Wall Street.

DiamondHandsDarrell

On the mining side, if some miners decide they can make more money turning their facilities into AI/data centers, that doesn’t mean Bitcoin stops working. The remaining miners keep mining, and if enough hash power leaves, Bitcoin eventually adjusts the difficulty downward. Obviously you don’t want a massive amount of hash power disappearing because that affects security, but the system is designed to adjust to miners coming and going. As far as the price, I don’t think you can tie Bitcoin to any one thing. It’s ridiculously complicated, probably even more so than stocks because traditional markets, bonds, yields, interest rates, etc. have been studied forever. Bitcoin is still kind of the wild card. Institutional money moves in and out depending on where it thinks the best return is. When traditional trades become less attractive, some of that money rotates into Bitcoin. Then you have ETF flows, interest rates, Treasury yields, the dollar, leverage, regulation, geopolitical events, countries experimenting with crypto for settlement, and a dozen other things all pushing on it at the same time. That’s why I’m always skeptical when someone says, “Bitcoin went up today because of X.” X might have helped, but there are usually five or ten other things happening underneath it. Bitcoin is still young enough that nobody has a perfect model for how all of those forces interact

iSharesOfficial

While partnership taxation is one of the most complex areas of the tax code, the [iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/350678/ishares-bitcoin-premium-income-etf) only holds a few positions, which makes it relatively straight forward compared to other partnerships with private investments. As with any managed fund though, investors rely on the manager to make decisions in the best interests of the fund and its shareholders. We spent over a year developing BITA's structure with a focus on tax efficiency, allowing us to manage complex tax elections and accounting decisions at the fund level. We have also committed to providing K-1s by March 15th, helping address investor concerns around delayed tax reporting.

iSharesOfficial

Many partnerships with complex private investments deliver K-1s late and require filing an extension. If a K-1 didn’t require filing an extension would that change your perspective on them or do you have other concerns too? The [iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/bita) commits in its prospectus that it will deliver K-1s no later than March 15^(th).

jawni

>So would you give up shareholder rights for 24/7 trading? Or would you rather own traditional shares? What shareholder rights does the average shareholder actually invoke? I certainly have never exercised any of those "rights" but I sure as hell have wanted to trade outside of the trading hours. As long as I trust the custodian, it's an obvious choice. It's the same with any token, not just tokenized equities. Do I need to hold my BTC on chain when it gets 0 yield? No, I might as well hold it in a custodial wallet or through an ETF. Do I need to hold my SOL on chain? Well that actually makes sense, because I can get yield, I can use it in defi, etc. Most people in this sub are idealistic idiots, who don't really think pragmatically, but rather they project an ideal and then reject anything that doesn't live up to it. So just because it may not have the shareholder rights they have literally never once even considered using, they'll miss out entirely.

LucaRossi0

It only took Wall Street 9 years, a spot ETF, and massive inflation to finally figure out what satoshi wrote in 9 pages.

Huge_Position890

All fair points, so I ran the two I hadn't done. As before, the rules and my guesses were written down first. **1. Counterfactual.** Done in the reply above. Seven coins with no ETF at the time thinned too, and so did their BTC-independent part. ETH's own ETF date added nothing, and placebo dates show "breaks" as well. So it's a regime change, not an ETF effect. **2. Robust scale.** I re-counted without GARCH, scaling each hour two ways: by trailing 7-day realized vol, and by a 30-day median absolute deviation. |per 30 days, before → after Jan 2024|trailing 7d vol|30d MAD| |:-|:-|:-| |hours beyond 4σ|6.3 → 5.2 (ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.71–0.99)|23.2 → 15.3 (0.66, 0.50–0.89)| |hours beyond 6σ|2.1 → 1.2|9.0 → 4.4| |Hill α|2.31 → 2.66 (+0.34, CI +0.20 to +0.49)|2.10 → 2.49 (+0.39, CI +0.20 to +0.55)| The thinning survives. But you're right that the size depends on the estimator: GARCH gave \~1.7x fewer 4σ hours and \~2.8x fewer 6σ hours, and robust scales give roughly 1.2–1.5x and 1.7–2x. I'd quote it as a range. **3. Bai–Perron.** I ran a mean-shift model on the monthly rate of 4σ hours, allowing up to 5 breaks with 15% trimming and choosing the number by BIC. BIC picks **zero** breaks for BTC under both scales and for the control average. If I force a single break anyway, it lands in Dec 2020 under MAD scaling, Sep 2023 under trailing vol, and Jul 2021 for the controls. None of those is significant (sup-F 2–7) and none is at the launch. By your criterion the ETF story weakens. The before/after difference is real, but it looks like a slow drift or regime, not a step on an ETF date. **4. Drying volume.** Agreed on direction: no tilt. One nuance from my data: it didn't widen the next move either. The next day was narrower in absolute terms (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%) and no different relative to current volatility. In my sample it's a state that mostly says "it's quiet."

Huge_Position890

All fair points, so I ran the two I hadn't done. As before, the rules and my guesses were written down first. **1. Counterfactual.** Done in the reply above. Seven coins with no ETF at the time thinned too, and so did their BTC-independent part. ETH's own ETF date added nothing, and placebo dates show "breaks" as well. So it's a regime change, not an ETF effect. **2. Robust scale.** I re-counted without GARCH, scaling each hour two ways: by trailing 7-day realized vol, and by a 30-day median absolute deviation. |per 30 days, before → after Jan 2024|trailing 7d vol|30d MAD| |:-|:-|:-| |hours beyond 4σ|6.3 → 5.2 (ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.71–0.99)|23.2 → 15.3 (0.66, 0.50–0.89)| |hours beyond 6σ|2.1 → 1.2|9.0 → 4.4| |Hill α|2.31 → 2.66 (+0.34, CI +0.20 to +0.49)|2.10 → 2.49 (+0.39, CI +0.20 to +0.55)| The thinning survives. But you're right that the size depends on the estimator: GARCH gave \~1.7x fewer 4σ hours and \~2.8x fewer 6σ hours, and robust scales give roughly 1.2–1.5x and 1.7–2x. I'd quote it as a range. **3. Bai–Perron.** I ran a mean-shift model on the monthly rate of 4σ hours, allowing up to 5 breaks with 15% trimming and choosing the number by BIC. BIC picks **zero** breaks for BTC under both scales and for the control average. If I force a single break anyway, it lands in Dec 2020 under MAD scaling, Sep 2023 under trailing vol, and Jul 2021 for the controls. None of those is significant (sup-F 2–7) and none is at the launch. By your criterion the ETF story weakens. The before/after difference is real, but it looks like a slow drift or regime, not a step on an ETF date. **4. Drying volume.** Agreed on direction: no tilt. One nuance from my data: it didn't widen the next move either. The next day was narrower in absolute terms (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%) and no different relative to current volatility. In my sample it's a state that mostly says "it's quiet."

ghostchihuahua

Fuck these ETF’s, i still don’t understand how coupling bitcoin to the markets in any such way is relevant or a smart thing to do, this just another hedgie shit-vessel for daytraders..

LaminatedDenimJeans

That’s where I got in too. I made a couple hundred quick bucks and cashed out. I lost some money when it went down to 60k and I got out, and switched to the stock market. I’ve had some luck at the start but I didn’t have much capital to invest, so what I made wasn’t life changing to say the least. Now I have a balance of Crypto, stocks and an ETF. It works for me.

CodsterTX

The ETF's being easy to manage. Bought when it reached the bottom of the power law around 60k

No-Masterpiece2246

They have a fair amount of discretion when rebalancing ETF shares. They don't have to buy BTC when they issue more shares. Just adhere to accounting requirements and keep the shares/coins balance roughly accurate. Also, they're Blackrock. No way would the SEC or CFTC ever prosecute them if/when they violate the rules. They have more money than God.

Dedsnotdead

I agree, but my point was that their current buying is on behalf of their clients and the ETF’s they manage. They will execute those trades regardless of the direction of the market as custodians.

An_Individualist

Whatever ETF you choose will track one of the categories in that list, IE a US Large Cap ETF, or Bitcoin ETF, etc.

iSharesOfficial

To fully set the stage, we are referring to the bitcoin income segment given the grantor trust already fits the spot segment so well. In the bitcoin income segment, you can launch in a traditional ETF structure, but your long bitcoin exposure needs to be implemented synthetically via derivatives, which comes with roll costs and gains/losses that need to be realized each year. If you’re a long-term believer in the bitcoin growth story, recognizing gains each year can lead to a materially adverse after-tax result in this backdrop compared to compounding gains without realizing tax until the investor decides to sell. This is what the partnership structure enables in this segment – it provides the flexibility to hold spot bitcoin directly, which we believe to be more tax-efficient than synthetic but comes with the inconvenience of a K-1. We are trying to better understand if the market is simply allergic to K-1s broadly or if they are okay if the investment rationale can justify it (and it can be delivered in a timely fashion before the April tax deadline).

NareZiekte

yea the whole ETF thing kind of made all the info/models we had obsolete, best to just check whatever the whitehouse is doing and mirror s&p for day/week/whatever trading, or just be normal and live a stressless life and buy to hold long term, long termers are the only winners anyways

VettaQ

Attribution is the hard part here, not the observation. Before pinning anything on the ETFs you need a counterfactual: run the same exceedance count on an asset that did not get an ETF in the same window, and on BTC over placebo dates away from the launch. If the drop in tail hours shows up everywhere, it is a regime change, not an ETF effect. Second, 'six-sigma' is estimator-dependent: with fat-tailed hourly returns, a Gaussian sigma moves just because vol clustering changed. Re-count with a robust scale (median absolute deviation, or a fixed multiple of trailing realized vol) and see if the result survives. Third, use an actual structural break test (Bai-Perron) instead of eyeballing the ETF date - if the estimated break does not land near the launch, the story weakens a lot. And you are right about volume: drying up is a state, not a signal. It widens the distribution of the next move without tilting its direction.

HugeLarry

I’m going to buy some of the Inverse Schiff ETF.

ceadmin

ETF

newMoneyStyle

ETF inflows don't always move price the same day since spot selling can offset them. Could just be some lag before it shows up

AutoModerator

Post is by: Huge_Position890 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/algotradingcrypto/comments/1xaq5ea/since_the_spot_etfs_bitcoins_6sigma_hours_are_3x/ \- \*\*Shape changed.\*\* On hourly BTC, \*after removing volatility\*, extreme moves became rarer after the January 2024 spot ETFs: 4σ hours \~1.7x rarer, 6σ hours \~2.8x rarer. The tail index rose from \~2.3–2.4 to \~2.8–2.9 (z 5–6.6, pre-registered, survived a planted-effect check). \- \*\*But tails breathe.\*\* The tail was just as thin in 2020–21 and fat again in 2022–23. The latest thin phase lines up with the ETF era. One event, one asset: I can't call it causal. \- \*\*Volume explains how fat the tails are, not why they thinned.\*\* Scaling returns by volume makes tails much thinner overall, but the post-ETF change stays the same size. \- \*\*Drying volume:\*\* the next day is calmer (median range 2.4% vs 3.1%). But that's just calm continuing. It adds nothing beyond what a volatility model already knows. Sharp moves after drying volume went down 52.7% of the time vs 54.3% on other days. A 10-point directional edge is ruled out. **Why I looked again** Last week I posted that crypto's tails are fat in every window and swing no more than noise. I also saw a hint of a slow drift, but I found it after looking at the chart and it didn't clear my bar (SNR 2.5 vs 3). My co-researcher's bet this time was "the ETFs changed the shape of the tail." Mine was "no, they changed volatility, not the shape" (50%). Both were written down before the data was touched. **Setup** \- \*\*Data:\*\* BTCUSDT spot, hourly, Binance, Aug 2017 – Sep 2026. That's 79,807 hours: 55,951 before 11 Jan 2024 and 23,856 after. \- \*\*Cleaning:\*\* \- Remove the weekday × hour pattern, separately before and after the ETFs. US trading hours matter more now, and that is not a tail shape. \- Divide each hour by a GJR-GARCH-t volatility estimate. What's left is the \*\*shape\*\*: how surprising a move is \*given\* current volatility. \- \*\*Measure:\*\* Hill tail index on the top 5% of each tail, before vs after. Higher α = thinner tail. \- \*\*Null:\*\* 200 simulated paths from the fitted model with a \*constant\* tail, each re-estimated the same way. Simulated paths that blew up were filtered out. \- \*\*Checks before looking at the real result:\*\* \- no false alarms when nothing changes (0–1%); \- a planted tail change was caught (100%); \- a planted \*volatility-only\* change was not mistaken for a shape change (0–3%). \*\*Power note.\*\* I first tried daily BTC and a pooled cross-section of \~400 coins. On simulated data, a sizeable tail change was caught only 6–12% (daily) and 30% (pooled) of the time. Pooling coins doesn't help much because crashes hit all coins on the same days. Hourly data was the first design with enough power, so I used it. **Result 1: the shape changed** | | before ETFs | after ETFs | z | | left tail (drops), α | 2.29 | 2.82 | 5.3 | | right tail (rises), α | 2.42 | 2.87 | 6.6 |  \- \*\*Robust to tail size:\*\* the same result holds using the top 2.5% or 10% instead of 5% (z 5.3–6.1). \- \*\*Fitted separately:\*\* fitting the volatility model separately on each period gives the same picture. Volatility fell \~43%, and the tail parameter rose from 3.4 to 4.3. So it's not only "BTC got calmer." Given the calm, big surprises got rarer. My co-researcher was right; I was wrong. **Result 2: but the tail breathes**  \- \*\*2018–19:\*\* fat. \*\*2020–21:\*\* thin, about as thin as now. \*\*2022 to early 2023:\*\* fat again (FTX era). \*\*2024 onward:\*\* thin. \- \*\*The latest thin phase lines up with the ETFs.\*\* In the last window that ends before the ETFs, the tail index was still \~2.2. It rises through 2024. \- \*\*Why I can't call it causal:\*\* \- It's one event, on one asset. \- The tail has moved like this before, without ETFs. \- Other things changed in 2024 too (halving, market structure). \- A test of "is the ETF date special" also ran into this. Split points before the ETFs look like breaks too, because their "after" segment contains the ETF era. So that test can't separate the ETFs from a slow regime change. **Result 3: what about volume?** \*\*A data trap first.\*\* Binance's zero-fee BTC period inflated BTCUSDT volume 2–4x from July 2022 to March 2023. It went from $231B in March 2023 to $47B in April. Anyone using Binance BTC volume across 2022–23 should cut that window. I did. \*\*Does volume explain the tail?\*\* The mixture-of-distributions idea (Clark 1973) says returns look fat-tailed because information flow (volume) varies. So I scaled each hour by its relative volume. \- \*\*The level, partly yes.\*\* The tail index jumps from 2.3 to 3.8; volume does explain a lot of \*how\* fat the tails are. \- \*\*The ETF-era change, no.\*\* It is the same size with or without volume scaling (+22%/+18% vs +20%/+15%). So whatever thinned the tails, it isn't the \*amount\* of trading. Book depth or participant mix are candidates I can't test before the ETFs; I only started collecting depth in 2026. **Result 4: drying volume and the next move** "Volume dries up before the big move" is common folklore. I defined "drying" as the last 24h volume being below 60% of its 30-day median: 394 such days vs 2,578 others.  \*\*Calmer? Yes, in plain terms.\*\* The next day's median range is 2.4% vs 3.1%. But that's just calm continuing. \- My pre-registered test asked whether drying volume adds anything \*beyond\* the volatility model. \- It first said yes: +18% \*more\* movement than the model expected (SNR 4.2). \- The volatility model turned out to be the problem. It barely mean-reverts (persistence ≈ 0.999), so after any calm stretch it under-predicts. \- Adding the last 24h of volatility to the controls makes the drying-volume effect vanish (SNR 0.7). \- \*\*Bottom line:\*\* drying volume tells you the market is calm, which you already knew. \*\*Direction? No.\*\* \- After drying volume, 52.7% of sharp hours (beyond 3σ) went down, vs 54.3% on other days. The difference is −1.7 points, 95% CI \[−9.5, +6.2\]. \- Over 72 hours the shares are 54.1% vs 54.0%. \- A directional edge of 10 points or more is ruled out. The 24h return difference is also indistinguishable from zero. **What it means** \- \*\*For risk, not for direction.\*\* Stops and leverage sized on ATR implicitly assume a fixed tail. Before vs after the ETFs, moves beyond 4σ were 1.7x and beyond 6σ 2.8x more frequent in the fatter phase, so a stop several ATRs away gets hit by noise noticeably more often. A rolling tail estimate is a cheap way to know which phase you're in. \- \*\*"Coiled spring" volume:\*\* it neither predicts which way the next big candle goes nor makes it more likely than the current calm implies. \- \*\*If you compare realized volatility to GARCH forecasts, control for recent volatility.\*\* Otherwise "after X, it got busier than expected" can just be GARCH being slow after a quiet day. I almost published exactly that. **Scorecard (written down before the data)** \- \*\*Tails:\*\* co-researcher "shape changed" — right. Me "shape same" (50%) — wrong. \- \*\*Drying volume → sideways:\*\* we both expected a calmer-than-expected day. In plain terms it is calmer, but not beyond what calm already implies, so the pre-registered rule says no. \- \*\*Drying volume → direction:\*\* I gave "no direction ruled out" only 30%. That's what came out. **Limitations** \- \*\*One asset, one exchange, spot.\*\* BTC only, on Binance spot. \- \*\*Hill depends on how much of the tail you use.\*\* I fixed 5% in advance and reported 2.5% and 10%. \- \*\*The ETF effect isn't identified.\*\* It's one event, the tail moves on its own, and 2024 had other changes too. \- \*\*"Drying" has one definition\*\* (60% of the 30-day median). I didn't try others, on purpose. \*\*References\*\* \- Hill, B. M. (1975). A simple general approach to inference about the tail of a distribution. \*Annals of Statistics\*, 3(5), 1163–1174. \- Quintos, C., Fan, Z., & Phillips, P. C. B. (2001). Structural change tests in tail behaviour and the Asian crisis. \*Review of Economic Studies\*, 68(3), 633–663. \- Clark, P. K. (1973). A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices. \*Econometrica\*, 41(1), 135–155. \- Drożdż, S., Kluszczyński, R., Kwapień, J., & Wątorek, M. (2025). Multifractality and its sources in the digital currency market. arXiv:2510.13785. (Their 1-minute data also shows BTC's thinnest tail in 2024.) \*Not financial advice. This is a research log.\* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Glittering_Pick_9738

I have just noticed big ETF inflows yesterday, highest since 9/22. And the price still went down. It's weird as recently ETFs were carrying upwards volatility.

RevolutionaryPick241

In USA it's called ETF

Rav_3d

Why not use BTC or similar ETF?

Figozinho4

IMO still beats any ETF performance out there over time

GrowingPainsIsGains

I look at the Debt to GDP ratio of major countries. The rapid erasure of jobs due to AI. And I DCA in everything related to AI. Stocks in AI. ETF’s with semi conductor. And guess what top preferred currency for AI was? Bitcoin. I highly recommend owning assets or a stake that produces wealth that scales with AI. Or be in a job that touches AI. No single moment in history has this scale of revolutionary leap that we have automation that can “think” for us.

ResponsibilitySad583

The 10% spike in September was due to ETF inflows driven by quarter-end rebalancing. Aside from the ETFs, retail buying was very minimal. There is no major movement in either direction.

DullTeaching3093

Not much else it can do right now with all this uncertainty floating around. The fact price didnt crash below 80K is something I guess but saying it held up feels like giving too much credit. ETF flows been weird lately and whole market just waiting for something to happen I think we gonna see more sideways movement before any real direction maybe couple weeks of boring candles. My portfolio is just sitting there doing nothing so I stopped checking it everyday

Romanizer

Turning the wheel on ETF shares appears to be very profitable. At least for BlackRock. Doesn't have the risk of liquidation and you can earn some fees on top of your holdings.

Savings-Leading4618

I mean, it's not bad advice. If you don't want to sell, why not consider moving your Bitcoin to a reputable exchange? I know this might be unpopular in Bitcoin circles, but I genuinely believe your heirs have a better chance of actually inheriting your Bitcoin if it's held on a reputable CEX or through an ETF than if you leave them some complicated multisig inheritance setup that they could easily screw up. And that's just one of the risks. How was your seed phrase generated? Hardware wallet? Software? What if a vulnerability is discovered years down the line, or the seed was generated using compromised or insufficient entropy? Imagine your children finally figuring out how to access your wallet, only to discover it's been drained. Then there's quantum computing. What happens if Bitcoin eventually needs a hard fork to become quantum-resistant, but you're seriously ill or otherwise unable to migrate your coins? Could your heirs end up inheriting coins that are vulnerable or potentially unspendable? And these are just a few examples. The list goes on. Of course, exchanges and ETFs come with their own risks. I'm not pretending otherwise. But after everything that's happened this year, I genuinely struggle to recommend self-custody to newcomers, especially when we're talking about inheritance. The whole point of leaving Bitcoin to your children is making sure they actually receive it, not leaving them a cryptographic puzzle they might fail to solve. At some point, we need to acknowledge that eliminating counterparty risk isn't necessarily worth introducing a whole new set of risks that ordinary people, let alone their heirs, may not be equipped to manage.

BergeracSuce

His premise is that bitcoin will not be a monetary standard. If you have to own it through ETF, then he's right lol.

Jarjabings

Ah bon laquelle ? Puisqu'elle peut sortir des ETF bitcoin spot à l'infini qui peuvent s'acheter ou se vendre en quelques secondes ( si fait par un humain ) ? Et il n'y a pas d'obligation pour les fonds ETF d'avoir un ratio 1:1. Même problème qu'avec l'or physique vs ETF

securityguardnard

# Bitcoin analysis as of Oct 18, 2026 Bitcoin is trading at about **$81,700**, roughly 35% below its all-time high of about $126,000 (Oct 6, 2025). |Window|Start price|Change to today|High|Low| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Since inception (Oct 2009)|\~$0.001\*|\~+8.2 billion %|\~$126,000|\~$0| |10 years (Oct 2016)|\~$640\*|\~+12,700% (\~62%/yr)|\~$126,000|\~$600\*| |5 years (Oct 2021)|\~$61,500\*|\~+33% (\~6%/yr)|\~$126,000|\~$15,500\*| |1 year (Oct 2025)|\~$108,000|**-24.5%**|\~$110,000\*|\~$57,800| |6 months (Apr 2026)|\~$75,500\*|**+8%**|\~$87,250|\~$57,800| |3 months (Jul 18)|\~$64,800|**+26%**|\~$87,250|\~$62,800| |1 month (Sep 18)|\~$80,000\*|**\~+2%**|\~$87,250|\~$80,300| |1 week (Oct 11)|\~$83,000|**-1.6%**|\~$84,100|\~$80,700| |Today|\~$81,400|**\~+0.2%**|\~$81,960|\~$80,655| \*Estimate or from my own memory rather than a source I checked today. See the caveats at the end. # What drove each window * **Since inception:** Bitcoin went from a tenth of a cent to six figures. The big steps were the 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025 cycle peaks, each followed by a crash of 50% to 93%. Spot ETFs were approved in 2024. * **10 years:** This window includes most of the early-cycle gains. The growth rate has faded as the asset has grown. * **5 years:** You’d be up about 33%, or roughly 6% a year, even though the price is far above the 2021 low. The 2021 peak (\~$69k) was followed by a 2022 crash and then the 2025 high. * **1 year:** The decline reflects the post-peak correction. A Feb 2026 selloff took the price to about $63,000, with drivers cited including the U.S.–Iran crisis and money rotating from Bitcoin ETFs into AI stocks. The low came in June at about $57,800, when the price fell about 18% in the month and the Fear & Greed Index hit “Extreme Fear” (15). * **6 months:** The price rose from about $75,000 to a peak near $83,000 in May. It then dropped to the June low and recovered sharply. * **3 months:** This is the rebound. August gained about 25% and September about 8%, and sentiment moved from fear toward greed. * **1 month:** September’s rally topped out around $86,600 on Sep 21, after the Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% on Sep 16, and the price has chopped sideways since. Headwinds include August CPI at 3.4%, Brent crude near $103, and the failed CLARITY Act Senate vote. * **1 week:** The price slipped about 3% in the first part of the week. A weak September jobs report (+29k) briefly lifted it, but spot ETFs saw about $681 million in net outflows over Oct 5–9, and about $1 billion in profit-taking was reported around Oct 8. * **Today:** Very thin weekend trading, with about 657 BTC of volume on Kraken. Nothing is moving the price until US ETF flow data and futures markets reopen Monday. Upcoming catalysts are the FOMC decision on Oct 28 and Deribit options expiry on Oct 30. # Summary The longer trend is still strongly up, but returns have been shrinking cycle after cycle. The 1-year picture is negative because the price is still recovering from the October 2025 peak. Over the past 3 to 6 months it has rebounded about 26% from the summer lows and is now stuck in a range of roughly $80,000 to $87,000. Short-term direction depends on the Fed, inflation and oil, and ETF flows. Some analysts say Bitcoin has exited its bear market, citing a move back above its 365-day moving average. Others point out that the all-time high is still far away, and none of this is a forecast. This is analysis, not financial advice.

Lost-Do73

It’s more inportant where you keep your Bitcoin. Al the IOY bitcoin wil be gone because it is stolen from exchanges and from the ETF’s So only decent selfcustody will let you keep your Bitcoin. Your saved selfcustody Bitcoin will bring you wealth long term. But since $ are a digital ponzi sceme …. Nobody can pay with card. Cash is run out….. after 3 months without elektricity the debt is reset and the economy is back to 200 years before.

Practical-Smoke-9337

not your keys not your coins, that’s the whole thing ETF is just a paper promise, if the exchange get hacked or govt decide to freeze assets you got nothing. with self custody you actually own it, nobody can take it away but yeah for most people the convenience is worth the risk, just don’t be surprised if one day you can’t access your funds

Doctor_Fritz

Before that pump in BTC, Trump posted on his truth social shit that it was time to buy all the crypto. Shortly after there was an announcement of bond buybacks which pushed crypto up as well. It was the culmination of a ton of fomo after the trump post and a short squeeze all rolled into one. The price movement here is not systemic. The push up triggered more fomo from ETF buyers, puching the price a little higher. But then look at the current climate. Interest rates and inflation are soaring, making highly volatile tech holdings less interesting in favor of bonds. Yet, still crypto soared like this? It doesn't make sense. The S&P500 reached ATH at the behest of a handful of megacaps all tied to a circular self financing scheme leaning on AI infrastructure buildouts. The rest of the stocks on the US market are down 20% or so on average. Pumptober created an uptick for a bit but it seems to me that whales are now looking to unload their pumped up crypto onto unsuspecting bag holders after a few months of (relatively) sideways movement. I think it'll dump after the elections beginning November. this is my own opinion, not financial advice.

ItsPickles

People in bonds aren’t going to bitcoin. They will go to SPY or some dividend ETF

DeFiBandit

Pauline and Jacob would be in the ETF and have never heard of Binance. Thankfully scams don’t ever occur outside of crypto, right?

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

Few-Sky-976

I'd put the $25K in a brokerage account (Schwab, Fidelity, WeBull, Robinhood) and buy the corresponding ETF for either ETH or Solana. Or both. The ETF tickers are: ETHA, GSOL. Wait a day or two as the market is headed down this week. The advantage of buying ETFs is no crypto tax reporting, no wallet security issues, no transfer losses, etc. As the ETFs are 1:1, it's so much easier. Cons: no staking options, or SOL rewards, but also you dont need crypto tax software to track the pesky rewards.

colemusic1

i wouldn’t exactly agree it has “all” the fundamental properties to hedge against inflation. Whether we see it this way or not, it is considered a risk asset. that doesn’t mean it’s risky per se, it means it’s a volatile asset that can have big swings. it’s not a broad index ETF where volatility is low, such that it moves at a slow yet steady pace upwards. With that said, it’s always worth an investment into it if you’re looking for a growth asset and are completely okay with accepting volatility and potentially large swings downwards, as well as upwards

fittes7

When u buy ETF you buy IOU, if u do not know what is it google it rather than act smart on the comments You buy a paper that says that somewhere over there someone has BTC 1:1 to this paper, and no one owes you anything incase something happens So you dont buy a bitcoin, you buy a paper that follows BTC price, so this is what I call rented. I own ETFs too

VettaQ

The version of this question that actually works is writing the invalidation down before you need it, with thresholds and a review date. Two separate lists help: position-level invalidation (a weekly close below a level you name in advance) and thesis-level invalidation (the one or two variables your reason for holding actually depends on - ETF flow regime, monetary conditions, an adoption metric - and what 'wrong' looks like in numbers). Without that, every new piece of evidence gets reinterpreted to fit the position you already have, which is the loop you described in your first sentence. On waiting for everything to agree: confirmation has a price. The cost of being early versus late is asymmetric and depends on horizon - a 200-day cross matters for a months-scale position, but on a multi-year horizon price structure is mostly noise and the thesis variables carry the signal. Fewer pre-committed triggers beat a dashboard of maybes.

Good-Mongoose-7129

Holding all your crypto in etf kinda defeats the purpose of having crypto from the get go. You need something outside of monetary system. ETF is convenient way if you want crypto in your 401k or IRA, but I wouldn’t hold all of your crypto in etf

Scared-Permit2587

ETF. Don't have to worry about partner throwing away a cold storage device.

SomewhereAny8427

ETF, for me Semiconductors displays good progress. or just conservative SnP

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

mercuryy

You need to look at two things. Stablecoins are what's being adopted by finance, not blockchains per se. Blockchains exist since 18 years now, and they never had utility by themselves compared to other architectures, like databases. Financial institutions are centralised, they dont need any of the distributed features. Nothing blockchains are offering them is better, faster, cheaper, easier or more resillient than the systems they already have. They know all their business partners and dont need controllless consensus. Visa and MasterCard, as the most prominent example from recent history, created their own stablecoin. Their interest is in the coins for internal settlement, the focus of utility is absolutely not a blockchain behind it. The features that are being sought, the utility for them is that coin, not a chain. Thats an important difference. The other thing, we always see mostly two ways to profit from any adoption being touted. Either buying some token early hoping it takes off, or investing into infrastructure, whatever that means im the particular cases. There are players/coins like xrp and hype that are sitting on billions of their own supply selling those with just these promises. Not much different from most other heavily premined coins on pump dot fun tbh, but thats not the point. Hoping a coin might be adopted and be that scarce that anyone that bought it earlier will get rich is just short sighted. Because anyone looking to use a coin can see that plan from a mile away too. And thats nothing anyone looking for adoption is interested in. Imagine those little RFID tags on T-Shirts or food containers would suddenly cost spike from the usual cents to dozens or even hundreds of dollars. Would you actually expect any manufacturer to suddenly pay these prices, or just source another supplier, or even produce those things themselves? Before anything even comes near such a supply chain, such eventualities are handled in advance. Thats why, by definition, any coins or tokens that have any chances of being adopted will never suddenly "go to the moon". And there is nothing stopping anyone from creating their very own and personal coin and chain themselves. Ripple was neither big or special for creating their coins, any institution can and will do the same inside a work week if they want or need to. Which brings us to the other point, investing into infrastructure. There is no way any institution would be willing to give away any control over their infrastructure. Alone from being even legally or regulatory not allowed to. They could contract with ripple in that example, or anyone else, but as part of their due dilligence they will absolutely make sure that costs are fixed and the supply is stable. Therefore there is no chance as an outsider to profit from any infrastructure investments other than through the companies facilitating this. Because having control over your infrastructure is paramount in legal and regulatory environments, there can never be a public chain integrated here. No institution is going to underwrite the risk that, for example, the LOLcoin2 they adopted had sadly suffered a 51% attack that did a lot of damage they cant even repair because they dont control their own balances anymore. As i see it , the only way to profit from this is through the institutions and companies that take fees from all the gamblers that just blindly follow hypes. The ones running exchanges for the time being, and the ETF providers. Those are the only ones with a statistically fathomable chance of turning profits from all the trading.

PowerappsDev

I moved everything into a FTSE All-World ETF, spreading my money across over 3,000 companies worldwide. Crypto just feels too unpredictable for me these days, especially with a wife and kids. The ETF has a long history of growth despite occasional downturns, and it's had a strong year so far. I know there are risks too, but I'm investing for decades, not months. It simply fits my risk tolerance much better and lets me sleep better at night.

tekmiester

Ok, fair. First result means first "real" result. I couldn't imagine clicking on an ad if I was looking for research and opinions on something. I also couldn't imagine randomly investing in an ETF not through an existing brokerage platform. I guess some people interested in Bitcoin though aren't traditional investors and don't have the background. What you are saying is it's a standard investment scam and they just use Bitcoin as their entry point. They could be selling anything and operate the same scam.

daguito81

Let me preface by thanking you for the response and the effort. I’ve read some of these and they are really helpful and someone will be better off after reading your post But you’re kind of missing the point that me and many are making in this thread. If you need to read 3 books to kind to figure out how to safely use bitcoin. Then bitcoin will never be a mainstream cash alternative. Because it won’t be safe for the layman. I’m talking about the vast majority of people, not us technical people. The question was rhetorical in “what’s the manual” There isn’t. And if the solution is to go ETF then just get any security. If it has value because you want to invest and speculate that’s awesome. I sued Netscape navigator as well. I don’t agree with the “feeling”. I don’t remember people scamming left and right and rug pulls and such with the early days of the internet (at least as widespread) but maybe that was just me.

velospeed

You can borrow against your BTC. Can you borrow against your ETF shares?

__redruM

Yes, ETF funds. Maybe QQQ, or grab the SMH dip. Certainly start stacking VOO otherwise.

zomerbk

I’d separate flow from price impact: watch cumulative spot CVD or exchange net flows alongside ETF creations/redemptions, then see whether price holds without open interest and funding rebuilding. ETF flows alone miss buyers outside ETFs, and exchange-flow data is noisy, so no single metric settles it.

Downtown_Mode7405

Never invest what you can’t lose. You could also diversify. Half in a boring ETF. The other in BTC.

Tobias_CBC

Lower volatility can reduce short-term speculation, but it can also make Bitcoin easier for larger, longer-horizon investors to hold. The useful distinction is whether liquidity is leaving entirely or simply shifting from leveraged trading toward spot ownership. Which measure would change your view most: trading volume, long-term holders, or ETF flows?

BozEx_12

Yeah, exactly. Liquidations can give us a quick bounce but that doesnt mean buyers are back. I’d watch spot volume and ETF flows first. If price keeps going up without those improving, I’m not really convinced the demand is there yet.

jguest1105

You've actually named the strongest argument against just defaulting to the ETF: what happens if you die. An ETF solves that problem by keeping your Bitcoin in the regular financial system. Your spouse deals with a brokerage account, not a wallet. That's a real convenience, and I won't pretend otherwise. What you give up is ownership itself. With FBTC you hold a claim on Bitcoin held by someone else. You can't withdraw it, spend it, or move it if the fund's terms change or an account gets frozen. You also pay that 0.25% every year, forever, for the privilege. Self-custody flips the trade. Nobody can freeze or lend out your coins, and there's no annual drag. The risk you flagged is also real, but it's a planning problem, not a dead end. Written recovery instructions, a backup that survives fire, and a spouse who has actually walked through where everything is turns "gone forever" into a process your family can follow. Decide which one you're actually buying: exposure to the price, or Bitcoin itself. Most people never stop to make that assessment.

Optimistic-Pie123

I think the idea of self custody makes sense but I live in a country where it's cheaper to just buy Bitcoin-backed ETF:s or ETP:s and hold it in your trading account than buy it through a platform like Coinbase and then transfering it to a cold wallet, and honestly I'm still a bit trauamtized from the Coldcard wallet scandal.

PowerappsDev

Thanks, I appreciate your perspective! Crypto has become far too unpredictable for me. I was incredibly lucky to sell near the peak because we needed the money for a new car. Otherwise, I probably would have held on much longer and sold at a far worse price. Pure luck, not market timing. A World ETF simply fits my current risk tolerance

AcceptableJacket3947

ETF flows, inflation data, and market sentiment can influence Bitcoin's price, but predicting a market bottom remains difficult.

Typical-Argument6665

I'm bullish but if we slice clean through the 200-week moving average and stay there for more than a couple candles I'd have to step back. That level's held through every major wipeout so losing it would feel different. ETF flows and macro matter but they're more about timing than direction for me, I'm watching that weekly chart like it owes me money.

RetiredAvocado

You said the value of bitcoin will fall if more people will hold ETF.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Tobias_CBC and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1x6i8xy/what_would_make_you_switch_from_bullish_to/ It’s easy to find evidence supporting whichever outlook you already have. I think the harder question is deciding beforehand what would make you reconsider. For those who are bullish: what would signal that this is more than a temporary pullback? For those who are bearish: what would convince you a recovery has real support? Would you put more weight on price making higher highs and higher lows, the 200-day moving average, ETF flows, or macro conditions? My view is that one indicator alone gives an incomplete picture, but waiting for everything to agree has its own drawbacks. What’s your current outlook, your time horizon, and the strongest piece of evidence that could change your mind? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

VoDoka

What is suddenly with all this drama posting when we see 2% price swings? This is crypto, not some ETF?

OkSeries5363

That’s only true for Bitcoin Futures ETFs, which deal in paper contracts. Modern Spot Bitcoin ETFs are backed 1:1 by actual Bitcoin held securely by a custodian Even better, the Monochrome Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) in Australia that I use isnt just a regular spot ETF, it uses a unique bare trust structure. This allows investors to utilize an in kind redemption pathway. So you can choose to redeem your units this way, you can literally withdraw the actual, underlying physical Bitcoin directly into your own cryptocurrency wallet. Its fundamentally backed by the real asset, not just USD returns.

ZuccemSuccem

How? I never understand how people lose money day trading. Even if you enter at a very bad time, you wait long enough for it to turn green again (ideally wait until it pays the equivalent inflation loss + any taxes accrued). The only way I can see people losing all their money is either leveraging themselves, taking loans to gamble, or just constantly trying to time the market and losing money constantly to brokerage. Please for fucksake do not invest, you do not have the mental fortitude to watch red candles. Just put your money in a long term bank account to offset inflation and be happy, or dump everything in an ETF and don’t touch it for 20 years.

AutoModerator

Post is by: TheDTYP and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1x6abl8/do_you_think_its_the_right_time_to_buy_more_btc/ I'm not buying the "wait for the October bottom" thing anymore. Four-year-cycle folks circle October as the low, and people on reddit keep arguing about whether there's another leg down, but I've already been buying as if it keeps going. It was chopping around 80k for a bit. ETF flows bounce around, hot CPI pushes Fed hike odds up and you get a short dump, but the spot floor near 80k is still holding. I care more about the longer stuff: post-halving rhythm, spot channels still open, buyers showing up on dips. Waiting for a perfect low is too mystical for a beginner like me. I've been DCAing a bit of spot BTC on moomoo. I also bought some BTC upside event contracts on moomoo's prediction markets, same direction, small size. Not because I was hedging doubt. I think it still goes higher and I wanted both ways of saying that. Are you still waiting on an October bottom, or are you already buying for upside? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Flat-Aerie-8083

Because you eventually have to sell an ETF. With actual bitcoin you can borrow against it - tax free. And keep your bitcoin.

Basic-Nobody-Too

ETF is more for exposure and trusting someone to custody the property. When you self custody you are sovereign and can move around the world and conduct transactions as you need.

tekmiester

So you are saying people don't take the time to Google "best Bitcoin ETFs" before investing large sums? Also, if an ETF is s scam, how does it but get kicked off the exchange? If you have an article, I'd love to read it.

nada_sagrado

When was the last time you bought stuff/paid for something with a fraction of an ETF? Seems complicated.

Hitachi22

Litecoin had its chance to remain relevant but they screwed that up. Now it's just another shitcoin sitting at all time lows on the ratio. It never pumps when everything else is but sure does dump with everything.  The Litecoin ETF has been live for a year and barely has $10 Million inflows. The worst crypto ETF ever launched. Zero demand. It's headed to zero on the ratio over the long run.

bdjc_ink

So this thread made me try to imagine El Salvador using ETF proxies as legal tender alongside bitcoin🤣🤣🤣

rolo951

When has buying an ETF ever been "not though

RetiredAvocado

People buy an ETF because it buys the thing in it. ETF operator buys the bitcoin.

usedmattress85

I mean to use an ETF to hold your BTC. Because you can hold a BTC ETF inside of a Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA) which makes all the Cap gains completely tax free. You can’t hold self-custody BTC inside a TFSA. So if you’re a Canadian and you have room in your TFSA, it’s crazy to me to hold BTC any other way other than an ETF

RareVibeDelight

An ETF gives you exposure to Bitcoin’s price. Self-custody gives you control over your Bitcoin. If you believe in financial sovereignty, self-custody matters. Run your own node and verify, don’t trust. That’s what Bitcoin sovereignty is about. Not your keys, not your coins. 🧡🚀

m4rM2oFnYTW

It's not really specific to self-custody though. My point was that you could still be robbed even if it's in an ETF or brokerage or bank account. What's more important is operational security and maintaining a low profile and having a backup plan.

KazeFantasia

Buying ETF is ok until it’s not

joefunk76

The ETF is an IOU for bitcoin’s USD returns, not one for actual bitcoin. They never owe you bitcoin.

TheCurlyHomeCook

However, if it was in an ETF then suddenly that's not the case as it's Fiat. So yes exchange doesn't help as much but the question about not having self custody in order to be safe is a good one.