ETF

Twerking_Vayne

ETF is a wrapper, not an asset. A mix of ETFs at age 55 means a lot of bond ETFs, which is the point.

Traditional_Most105

I was a beginner 3 months ago when a friend told me he made some money into crypto and i wanted to give it a try. I did not become an expert nor did i make any money although am in the green zone cause btc went up but i can give you some advice based on everything i learned in these 3 months. I started by asking chatgpt some questions, found a 1-3 coins in the top 200 bought them in small quantities... Then i wanted to buy memecoins, i bought what were available on revolut so they were already established memecoins with not a huge upside like you can find in other exchanges. I was focusing on coins that were very cheap in order to get lots of each coin. That's a mistake cause a cheap coin doesn't mean a huge upside. You have to see it's marketcap, it's price, circulating supply, FDV (Fully dilluted value). So for example PEPE it's a memecoin. It's price is around 0.0000034. You put 50 eu and you get around 14 million pepe coins. And you think that if it goes to 1eu each you'd be a millionaire. BUT if you see that it's market cap is 1.38 billion, circulating supply is 413 trillion pepe and max supply the same which means that all tokens are unlocked, then you realize that if it goes to 1 eu each it means that 1 x 413 trillion means it's market cap should be 413 trillion which is impossible for a memecoin with no use. Then you have other coins that it's circulating supply is 50% or less which means only 50% of the tokens were unlocked, so it means when they unlock more of them or even all of them then it's demand will decrease and it's price also because more coins circulating = less demand = less upside. Then i started learning about narratives and i wanted to diversify into those narratives as well, bought some coins of different narratives also. Then i saw in socials about a memecoin and i wanted to buy that also. Bought that also. Then i decided to do some serious learning and research on crypto terms, other altcoins, etc.. and i bought some more alts also. I focused on coins with good tokenomics, a good project purpose that i understand by reading whitepapers, it's purpose mostly on coinmarketcap site. Then i started dca on them gradually. FOMO or Fear of missing out is a factor you have to stop at the start or don't let it blur your mind and put large amounts of money. I started putting small amounts of money cause i was acting based on FOMO. Later when i did more research and more learning it helped me narrowing down to more "safer" alts than randomly buying whatever i was seeing on socials. Trading memecoins is a dangerous game. There are memecoins that are honeypots which it means that you can buy them but the creators made them so you can never sell them. Other memecoins are literal rug and pulls, they hype a coin and insiders know when it's price will go up and they sell before you realize it's price went up plus they use bots. Not to say there are not "safer" memecoins but they are already established and have gone through at least one cycle. And not to say that you can't find safe memecoins that are not scams and make money but this leans towards day trading which will consume many hours of your time and i didn't go towards that path. If you want to invest in crypto BTC is the safest option. Then there are altcoins which include ETH which is the second safest option. And then other altcoins and then memecoins. Make sure to research an altcoin before investing in it, understand its purpose. Answer what's it's purpose? If the project succeeds and gets adopted will the coin's demand increase? Does it have good tokenomics? Does the coin/token have a utility inside the network? Why this decentralized project and not a centralized one? Why this coin and not another competitive coin? Listen and read socials, watch influencers AFTER you do your research and learning and let this noise be 5% of the deciding factor of you investing. Most want to hype their coins and use you as their exit strategy. Another advice is make sure to put money you can afford to lose, do your own research on everything if you want to invest and speculate safer, make sure to have a plan on when and how much to invest for example this amount monthly... and also have an exit strategy for example when it hits this price i sell 20% and i leave the rest for a later exponential rise. I wrote some words that might seem like alien language to you. That's how i was reading them. Research them, learn the terms, learn more about how crypto works, about BTC, about ETF's, about past cycles, altseason, crypto regulations, what affects crypto to go up or down, how the market was in the past compared to how it is now, learn how to read each coins tokenomics, learn everything you can first and then invest large amounts of money. I know you might be excited and if you want to invest now, invest very small amount of money until you learn most of the basic stuff. There are no guarantees in crypto and sure it's not just plain gambling. It's speculation sure, but it also needs some research and learning in order to speculate safer. Although memecoins is plain speculation or reading charts but it's more time consuming than holding some coins you have researched for long term. Imagine that you hold a map and trying to find a treasure and there's no certain area circled but multiple treasure spots that might be empty. That's just speculating and gambling in crypto blindly. Now imagine having a map with many treasure spots again on it but this time an area of the map is circled and it's in that area the treasure. That's crypto after you did your learning and your research. You still have to speculate on where the treasure is but at least you know it's less time consuming = safer bet/speculation.

BigvalBROski

Glad I bought a coin through the ETF at $64k.

2xfun

You should try mentioning bitcoin in a FIRE sub. They will turn into buttcoiners and it’s hilarious to watch … I once try to argue that the real inflation is not the cpi but much closer to M2 in that sub … they had a meltdown because an 10% inflation rate means they were not turning a profit with they ETF based strategies … it’s hilarious 

OneMiners_Hosting

The important part here is these are direct BTC-to-ETF conversions, not BlackRock going out and buying $5B of bitcoin. Holders are moving BTC they already own into IBIT in exchange for ETF shares, so it’s more of a change in ownership structure than fresh buying.

BrokenHefaistos

MS is only in it for his ( and ETF holders ) profit, he's not somekind of protecting god. He's a pro taker. The more it dips, the more he earns when it recovers, at 150k the risk of others dumping becomes rather high.

MaxiMaxLaurent

ETF has been more of a reactionary force than a driving force. It reacts to wherever the wind blows. Hence the dissappointing bull cycle and why it didn’t provide the driving force people expected. We saw it on the way down as ETF didnt sustain its inflow and just reacted to the market. That’s because people who buy ETFs aren’t buying coins they’re gonna hodl in cold storage long term, they’re just buying to ride the speculation.

SaneLad

The financial alchemy continues. Just buy Bitcoin folks. If you absolutely must, buy a Bitcoin ETF. No normal person needs multiple layers of leverage and interest obligations on top of it. And nobody should ever pay $2 for $1 of Bitcoin under management.

canadianragweed

Why can't an individual hold 1+ BTC on an exchange or through an ETF? It's 80k, a modest vehicle.

avgjoe104220

38% Very sizable position though in gross fiat total. I'm up on whole portfolio. Average buy of direct BTC prob around mid 60's and average of btc ETF prob around $39/share. I'm not as attached to btc etf so I'm going to plan to sell some once it hits all time high again and hold it to redeploy once it crashes again next bear cycle.

M4roon

Eh, wasn't it a few weeks ago we were having people posting in here how they lost all their life savings in that cold wallet hack? and before this little pump, there were lots of posts about people who have been investing for years and have basically broken even. If they had just put it in an ETF they'd be well on their way to retirement. BTC has use cases. And it is possible to double your wealth if you do it right. There's also a chance you lose everything, and a better chance you break even or make a small profit.

GILL-47

and ? ETF outflow is also just as quick

Generationhodl

I love it when people don't even read the article thats linked in this thread. "BlackRock's IBIT has processed more than $5 billion of direct Bitcoin-to-ETF conversions after lowering the minimum transaction size from $25 million to $1 million." "BlackRock has helped move more than $5 billion of directly held Bitcoin into its [iShares Bitcoin Trust](https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/ibit-options-volume-record-bitcoin-call-options/) (IBIT), strengthening Wall Street's grip on an asset originally designed to operate outside the traditional financial system. The shift allows large holders to exchange BTC for ETF shares without first selling their coins for cash."

QXPZ

That's super interesting. I didn't know anything like that existed. Thought you had to sell and pay taxes before moving to ETF.

BastiatF

Nope, their customers buy ETF shares which pushes the price above NAV. This creates an arbitrage opportunity for authorised participants who buy bitcoins and exchange for new ETF shares that they can sell at a premium. ETF customers never touch a single sat.

International_Long60

Exactly and I just matched the numbers in the picture with Sosovalue BTC ETF chart, and it seems like lookonchain shared the same numbers that are for 08/25 with some twisted words.

AmeriChino

Half of mine is in tax advantage account (IRAs/401k) as ETF. The other half is actual bitcoin in a cold storage. I plan to sell most if not all bitcoin ETF eventually and keep the real bitcoin untouched for as long as I can. I don't make promise on it.

Friendly-Sign-3289

Na Monero has the superior privacy & better devs these guys just put money into the right pockets for the ETF

Jogi1811

I decided to shelter my Bitcoin in the form of an ETF in a non taxable account. This also allows me to leave the Bitcoin ETF to my loved ones without any issues. I'm kind of on the fence about keeping it versus selling it every 4 years. The ETF I have also pays a dividend that will pay for the principle amount that I invest that I will use to purchase my core ETFs.

yefuck

… and not everyone likes to buy target date funds and bleed out. My point is that Roth / IRA’s mean nothing. And the biggest indicator we have is that ETF’s are paper hands based on past performance. If you don’t believe that you have blinders on.

PreferenceOk2716

BlackRock’s IBIT has reportedly processed $5B+ in direct Bitcoin-to-ETF conversions. These let large holders move BTC into ETF shares instead of selling it first. BlackRock also lowered the minimum conversion size from $25M to $1M, making the process accessible to a much broader group of wealthy/institutional holders.

HedgeHog2k

There’s something to be said about holding btc etf (thinking about it myself on the balance sheet on my company). But there’s zero reason to buy “real” bitcoin on a traditional exchange and keep it there. User above should go for ETF/ETP…

Practical_Mango7633

I completely agree. The current financial system is so rigged that it is shocking. And it became so clear after GameStop when they literarily removed the buy button and only kept the sell button. That is extreme marked manipulation and they got away with it. It feels good owning something outside of the financial system. Even though they now buy up a lot of it, have made ETF's and options. The fact is still that they can never access my Bitcoin or deny/block any transaction I want to do.

word-dragon

Michael Saylor, Coinbase, and the ETF’s are all getting ready to jump into the new, spam-free, world! /s

Secret-Ruin-9075

That's like trying to shame someone for investing in an ETF and shaming them for not owning the underlying stocks. See how dumb that sounds? That's you.

Extra-Effective-2554

One important catch: Tether Gold’s own FAQ says U.S. persons cannot purchase or redeem XAUt directly through the issuer. I would confirm your eligibility before comparing platforms, since availability can also vary by state. If you find a platform offering it, check that you are buying actual spot XAUt that can be withdrawn, not a futures contract or price-only product. Then compare the spread, trading fee, withdrawal fee, liquidity, supported network, and custody setup. I would also read the redemption terms carefully. Tokenized gold adds issuer, exchange, wallet, and blockchain risk that you do not have in quite the same way with a gold ETF. Testing with a small amount first makes more sense than moving the whole ETF position at once.

Mysterious_Rest_6623

Looks like a bit of everything tbh. ETF inflows, weaker dollar and then shorts getting squeezed on the way up

OtherwiseNeat9617

It still matches to the cycle even if its already bottomed. It was only 2 to 3 months different.. things arent going to happen to the exact month every time.... it was oretty obvious this time would be different. It it an institutional asset of 1 trillion dollars. Held by ETF's.. one company hlds 840,000 BTC.. thats why its different. Every other cycle was retial driven.. not anymore You think it always stays the same to the day, to the dollar ??? Nope.

Romanizer

That's true. It seems like ETF inflows are stabilizing around $300m per day, Strategy has prepared $1.5bn to deploy at will. If STRC hits par, this may get much more. So it's a bit of consolidation and built-up of further buying pressure, maybe waiting for more shorts to open.

Commercial-Ad90

My Roth IRA is 100% bitcoin ETF. Looking forward to tax free w/d on gains a couple decades from now

bonsoma

The major difference versus May is the flows underneath the price. In May, Bitcoin was around this same level while spot Bitcoin ETFs were seeing billions in net outflows. This time, ETF demand has turned strongly positive, with billions flowing in over several consecutive days. The price may look similar, but the underlying buying pressure is very different.

avgjoe104220

na I bought these two weeks after ETF came out been DCA'ing since then. I'm up, I think 15% on my cost basis. So when we hit all time high, ill be just fine.

Top-Stepdeez

If history repeats itself. It just seems we never see the bear market lows each cycle. I’m afraid if I wait we won’t ever see below $100K. Especially now with the ETF in play. Top $15K> Low $3K>Top $65K>Low$15K>Top$126K>Low$58-60K>Top$200k> Low$115-$120K.

sweet-breads

The new ATH high this cycle happened before the halving so would like to see earlier over Kay as the argument is the cycle started earlier due to the ETF remains taps turning on 3-4 months before the halving. Maybe a chart overlaid with new ATHs rather than the halving?

Suitable-Guava7813

Even more if you compare it with an all world ETF did since the beginning of this year (and then we are not even stockpicking).

narrowThistle

There’s definitely more behind this move than just buyers > sellers. ETF inflows, weaker dollar and the short squeeze all helped. I’d be careful chasing after a move this strong

Romanizer

No shit, it's an ETF not coin.

twincam-110

It was a huge short squeeze plus BTC had institutional inputs - six-session total from August 17–24 to roughly **$2.26 billion of net ETF inflows**

eToroTeam

$80k matters psychologically, but the interesting part is who is doing the buying once the breakout excitement cools off. If spot and ETF demand keeps coming in during a retest, that's a much stronger story than price holding simply because shorts are still being squeezed.

Economy-Tip5925

Sono entrati i grandi fondi di ETF che muovono miliardi

Greedy_Doughnut_9209

Just buy a BTC based ETF from a reputable online broker.

destinationexmo

We can only speculate. My optimistic speculation is we saw a record week in ETF inflows last week, that alone wouldn't really explain this big of a jump but if it coincided with the end of a major liquidation event going on behind the scenes or a supply crunch then that could explain it. My pessimistic speculation would be insiders got news of something during that Trump meeting last week and are buying in before he makes some big announcement so they can dump it for profits.

ZICRON_ULTRA

Explain how to drive a car to a 5 year old is irresponsible, especially if you think they are actually going to go out and do it. It's a pretty deep and complicated process. For a 5 year old I'd recommend an ETF, or simply buying on an exchange. Everything has a tradeoff.

Cool-Bath874

This cycle is nothing remotely close to previous cycles. This is something i don’t think many people are grasping clearly enough. IBIT, ETHA, XRP & 2X XRP leveraged ETF’s, and even BSOL have all been within the most active and top movers on brokerage platforms. And that is HUGE. It doesn’t mean 4 year cycles don’t matter, they do. It means they’re no longer predictable about a specific month (there’s also no specific month like october that says “this must be the bottom”). BTC trading volume and inflows/outflows on platforms like IBKR alone have been absolutely astounding lately, also contributing to why SOL started overextending today. TL;DR — i wouldn’t just sit here waiting for a bottom for a specific month. DCA, because the chances of it just plummeting to $45k within 5-6 weeks is pretty unlikely unless DXY absolutely soars / macro gets completely hostile / positions completely unwind. 4 year cycles are not the same as they used to be

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1vxl6ry/bitcoin_hit_79406_and_slammed_into_a_wall_its_now/ [BTC ripped 24% in a week off the Treasury buyback news, tagged $79,406 Monday morning](https://news.bitcoin.com/market-updates/bitcoin-storms-past-79k-before-hitting-resistance-near-80k/), and immediately got rejected. The whole rally's next move comes down to one speech from a man who's been Fed Chair for three months. Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address: for anyone not tracking it, Jackson Hole is the annual symposium where the Fed Chair signals the direction of monetary policy, and markets hang on every word. Last year Powell used it to pivot dovish and Bitcoin blasted from $113K to $116K in a day. This year it's Warsh's turn, and he's a genuine wildcard, three months into the job, a known hawk, running a committee where half the dot plot is penciling in rate hikes, walking into a rally that was built entirely on the expectation of easier financial conditions. This entire move happened because the Treasury pushed long yields down and the market read it as easing. But if Warsh gets up at Jackson Hole and reasserts that he's serious about killing inflation, that hikes are still on the table, that he won't let financial conditions loosen, he directly contradicts the premise the rally is standing on. Yields climb back, the debasement trade deflates, and $80K becomes the local top instead of a launchpad. Warsh spent his first meeting stripping out forward guidance and posturing tough on inflation. A guy who did that isn't going to Jackson Hole to sound dovish three months into the job and undercut his own credibility, especially with the buybacks having already done the easing for him. The setup favors disappointment. I'd be genuinely surprised if BTC clears $80K cleanly before he speaks. The whole thing is coiled on what one relatively untested Fed Chair decides to signal, and everything else, the SEC rules, the ETF inflows, the White House summit, is noise next to that one speech. Bet on the catalyst, not the vibe. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

yefuck

ETF’s sold a ton during the downturn. I am a bitcoin bull but lets not get ahead of ourselves these are retail investors with paper hands.

29da65cff1fa

bitcoin ETF

RGBrewskies

better off grabbing an etf?? where do you guys get this shit... what ETF is doing 20%

Awkward_Potential_

If you need to buy an ETF Bitwise or Fidelity are my preferred choices. 

sylsau

BlackRock just absorbed nearly **70% of all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in a single week**. That should make every Bitcoiner pay attention. Not because BlackRock controls Bitcoin. It doesn’t. Your node does not know who Larry Fink is. But Wall Street’s gateway to Bitcoin is becoming increasingly concentrated around one product: **IBIT.** **That creates a fascinating paradox:** → Bitcoin stays decentralized → Institutional access becomes centralized → ETF liquidity attracts more ETF liquidity → IBIT becomes the default pipe → The default pipe becomes market infrastructure **The protocol remains permissionless. The financial wrapper does not.** And this is where the next phase of Bitcoin gets interesting. **BlackRock cannot change Bitcoin’s 21 million supply.** But it may increasingly influence how billions of dollars of traditional capital reach that supply. That is not protocol control. It is **distribution power**. And distribution power matters when the asset being distributed cannot increase production to meet demand. **Bitcoin decentralized the money. Wall Street may be centralizing access.**

sylsau

BlackRock just absorbed nearly **70% of all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in a single week**. That should make every Bitcoiner pay attention. Not because BlackRock controls Bitcoin. It doesn’t. Your node does not know who Larry Fink is. But Wall Street’s gateway to Bitcoin is becoming increasingly concentrated around one product: **IBIT.** **That creates a fascinating paradox:** → Bitcoin stays decentralized → Institutional access becomes centralized → ETF liquidity attracts more ETF liquidity → IBIT becomes the default pipe → The default pipe becomes market infrastructure **The protocol remains permissionless. The financial wrapper does not.** And this is where the next phase of Bitcoin gets interesting. **BlackRock cannot change Bitcoin’s 21 million supply.** But it may increasingly influence how billions of dollars of traditional capital reach that supply. That is not protocol control. It is **distribution power**. And distribution power matters when the asset being distributed cannot increase production to meet demand. **Bitcoin decentralized the money. Wall Street may be centralizing access.**

visionanalyticsio

You’re not wrong on the practical side. For someone who just wants price exposure and doesn’t want to become a security engineer, the ETF is cleaner. Institutional custody, audits, legal separation, tax simplicity — all real advantages over the average person trying to DIY it. The pushback usually isn’t “BlackRock is going to steal your coins.” It’s that you’re concentrating a lot of the world’s bitcoin under a handful of custodians, and the whole “not your keys” thing exists because third-party risk has a long history of eventually mattering. Insurance helps until it doesn’t, and legal segregation is great until you’re actually in the middle of a messy insolvency. Still, for pure risk-of-total-loss from user error, most people are safer in IBIT than they are with a hardware wallet they half-understand. The Coldcard situation just made that more obvious. I think both can coexist. ETF for the boring long-term allocation, self-custody if someone actually values the sovereignty and is willing to put in the work. Treating it as binary is where it gets religious.

visionanalyticsio

Fair take. For pure price exposure, especially if someone is new and just wants BTC beta in a brokerage or IRA, the ETF is the lower-friction option. Most people are more likely to screw up their own seed phrase than BlackRock/Coinbase are to lose the coins. That said, the risk isn’t really them “stealing” 0.2 BTC. It’s operational failure, concentrated custody, or some edge-case legal mess if things go really sideways. Still low probability, but not zero. Self-custody is great when someone actually wants the sovereignty and is willing to learn the ops. For a lot of people who just want the number to go up, the ETF is the more practical choice and the “you’re doing it wrong” comments don’t help.

visionanalyticsio

Yeah a lot of people run both. IBIT for the easy brokerage/IRA stuff and then some actual BTC on a hardware wallet so you’re not 100% dependent on the ETF structure and Coinbase custody. After the Coldcard stuff I’d lean Bitkey over Ledger if you’re starting fresh, but both have tradeoffs. Ledger’s been around longer, Bitkey is simpler and more open. Just buy direct and verify everything. Main thing is deciding how much you actually want to self-custody vs keep in the ETF. No wrong answer, just different risks.

AutoModerator

Post is by: sembkaget and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1vxdv40/where_it_stands_today/ Given where things stand, sitting at $78-79K right into a well-documented resistance wall at $80K, with RSI overbought and large holders reportedly ready to sell into that zone, I'd lean toward choppy consolidation in the $73K-$80K range rather than a clean breakout or a collapse. Two scenarios I'd weight roughly evenly: Grind/pullback scenario (slightly favored): BTC tests $80K, gets rejected by large-holder selling, and retraces back toward $73-75K to "digest" the 22% move before trying again. This is the more typical pattern after a squeeze-driven rally this sharp. Breakout scenario: If ETF inflows stay strong and there's any positive CLARITY Act headline (even a rumor ahead of the September vote), the crowd could push through $80K on momentum alone, opening a path toward $85-90K. What I'd not expect this week: a full reversal into bear-market territory. The structural tailwinds (ETF inflows, Treasury liquidity, institutional demand) are too fresh and strong for that kind of sentiment flip in just a few days, bear markets tend to build over weeks/months, not materialize overnight after a rally like this. Bottom line: I'd watch the $80K level as the tell. Hold and close above it = bulls in control. Reject and drop back under $75K = expect more sideways chop before the next move. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

QuietLedgerAcademy

The hesitation is mostly a reflection of market participants dealing with consolidation fatigue while waiting on clearer macro direction. When you look beneath the surface, it is primarily macro driven. Traders are trying to gauge the exact pace of upcoming central bank rate cuts, bond yield movements, and global liquidity expansion. Regulatory developments create localized headline noise, but global fiat liquidity is the real engine that dictates multi week trend continuation. Institutional spot ETF buyers are quietly absorbing float in the background, but retail and momentum traders need a clear, decisive breakout catalyst before committing aggressive capital. Historically, these neutral sentiment compression windows where neither bulls nor bears have strong conviction are the calm before the storm. When volatility finally expands out of a tight sentiment regime like this, the ensuing move tends to catch the vast majority completely off guard.

QuietLedgerAcademy

Welcome back. A lot has changed over the last few years, especially with spot ETFs going live and institutional capital entering the market. Here is a quick rundown on where things stand today: Where to buy Stick to established, regulated platforms for fiat deposits. Kraken and Coinbase are very reliable and beginner friendly. If you are focused strictly on Bitcoin, dedicated apps like Strike or River are great for easy automated recurring buys with low fees. Where to store Do not leave your holdings on exchanges long term. Cold storage is still the golden rule. Physical hardware wallets like Ledger, Tangem, or BitBox02 keep your private keys completely offline and protected from online hacks, exchange insolvencies, or phishing attacks. Where to get up to speed Stay away from noisy social media timelines and paid signal groups. For structured learning, check out open educational resources like Ledgers Academy (ledgersacadamy.com), along with data tools like CoinGlass, DefiLlama, and TradingView to see where real liquidity and volume are flowing. What has long term potential Keep your core strategy simple. Spot Bitcoin remains the premier digital reserve asset backed by massive institutional ETF demand. Ethereum and Solana dominate decentralized finance and onchain activity. Starting with a solid foundation in the blue chips and dollar cost averaging over a multi year horizon is still the most reliable way to navigate the space :)

froopadiddilydoop

This is my point - to make any real profit, you need a lot of Capital. 10k was an arbitrary figure. You’d be better off grabbing an ETF. All the get rich quick stuff happened ten years ago.

The_Realist02

I’m just glad we finally got a bid. I took similar actions. Q2 /Q3 this year was the first time I’ve bought since a couple months post ETF. Feels good.

The_Realist02

Correct. Although the ETF themselves I think I leave out of this. Products downstream from etf I would call paper btc.

Porcellanidae

They sold more than they actually had ?!?! Never hold on the exchange or in ETF's my friends

stablecoinn

ETF flows and corporate treasuries are the marginal buyer instead of halving-driven supply.👍

riscten

Again, you can't get hacked if you follow best practices. Trusting Coldcard's RNG without ever auditing the code was never best practice. It was fine for small amounts but still a large risk. Anyone who lost large amounts of money with Coldcard wasn't being diligent with their self-custody. As for being able to call someone if your ETF goes to zero, that works until it doesn't. On a CEX specifically, you expose yourself to massive risks of fractional reserves. People seem to have an incredibly short memory when it comes to this. When BlockFi went down only 4 years ago, investors all had numbers they could call but still largely ended up with empty pockets. And while a traditional pure Bitcoin ETF is better in that regard as it involves many participants keeping each other in check, you're still exposing yourself to state-level freezes and seizures. If the US decides to seize all Bitcoin like they did for gold with Executive Order 6102, or even that they decide for one reason or another that you shouldn't own your Bitcoin, you won't be able to do anything about it as institutions will just comply. And then there's the futures and synthetic Bitcoin derivative ETFs that can literally print coins out of thin air.

Dehyak

Well you don’t own BTC if you’re investing through an ETF. And if it’s with an ETF, it’s on a CEX. During the financial crisis, companies weren’t stealing peoples stocks. Self-custody is great, been doing it since 2018. But with self-custody, you can still get hacked (Coldcard), you can expose yourself through negligence or just bad practice, you can forget your password, lose your pass phrase. It’s all a risk, I still opt for self-custody. But buying an ETF through a CEX does look more and more attractive than custody imo. If my account says $0. I have numbers I can call

riscten

Bitcoin held in self custody using best practices cannot be hacked or drained. The people who have their coins stolen are those who just wing it without understanding the tech. They stored on a hot wallet on an insecure device or trusted a digital RNG to produce their mnemonics (as was the case with Coldcard), and then someone swept it all. This doesn't happen to people with 2-of-3 multisig wallets with geographically distributed, dice-generated mnemonics stamped on metal. It doesn't even happen to people with single-sig wallets using high-entropy passphrases. The risk with institutions holding your coins for you isn't that your coins might be hacked or drained. They have people who do custody properly (like you should). The risk is that they get to decide if you own it or not, and in a crisis, that may not favor you. Bitcoin was created in reaction to the 2008 financial crisis, when bankers, which some people trusted, worked against the people's interest behind closed doors, until it all collapsed.  The whole point of Bitcoin is to put zero trust in opaque, large institutions. This is why everything is verifiable. Stick Bitcoin in an ETF or on a CEX, and you're right back to square one. Right back to the very thing Bitcoin was designed to protect against.

Jogi1811

I think it's too early for a serious breakout. It's holding steady at $77k right now but it's only the start of the week so who knows. Not excited really but nice to be in the green now. Running in an ETF not sure if that matters.

Hqjjciy6sJr

Vanguard ETF

Romanizer

Bitcoin goes up in value when demand for a scarce, liquid, non-sovereign digital asset grows faster than its fixed supply. That demand can come from retail, institutions, ETFs, treasury adoption, macro hedging, collateral use, or simply more people wanting exposure to a monetary asset outside the traditional system. Stocks rise because businesses generate earnings. Real estate rises because property produces rent and scarcity in specific locations. Gold rises because people trust it as a neutral store of value. Bitcoin is closest to digital gold, but with easier transfer, auditability, divisibility and global settlement. It goes down when liquidity tightens, leverage unwinds, regulation looks hostile, ETF/institutional demand weakens, holders lose conviction, or risk appetite collapses. So the reason to own Bitcoin is that it offers a unique risk/reward profile: fixed supply, growing accessibility, strong liquidity, and potential monetary adoption. The downside is volatility and missing cash flow. The upside is that if it continues to become a recognized reserve/collateral asset, its addressable market is much larger than today and growth potential is higher than in any other asset.

kepalautakkau

both imo, but institutions are probably driving more of the bigger moves with ETF flows playing a big role

KateR_H0l1day

Weekend always seems to slow things down a little, not much ETF activity. But, we can expect Monday market opening and throughout the day to show us where we’re going. Hopefully it’s upwards and the bottom will be cemented relatively soon, or we head back to mid $60’s!

nassauboy9

Did a bit of evaluating today on both options. Im currently in QBTC on Toronto exchange. For me at the time the nice ETF did not exist but now that they do either will significantly reduce my MER. These particular funds in a TFSA (tax fee) account. What I have noticed about QBTC is the diff between ask and sell is significant, and the depth is not great. Im not a high-frequency person but in any moment I want good liquidity. For my purposes the FBTC (canadian in my case) provides a good delta on buy ask and good depth and enough volume for my purposes. Im going to do the swap Monday as in my case either is a good choice LOL

Leynnox

Crypto could still be allowed, but they can decide to stop crypto ETF for whatever reason, like some big guys complaining about liquidity going there and not in stocks. Not saying it will happen, but totally could tho.

platinumarks

Not by investing in a crypto-backed ETF

AutoModerator

Post is by: Civil-Mine-4168 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1vwfbcj/the_btc_breakout_was_a_treasury_liquidity_event/ Quick reconstruction of the week, because the sequencing matters more than the price action: Aug 18 — SEC proposes "Regulation Crypto Assets," easing disclosure requirements for certain offerings. Aug 19 — Treasury announces long-dated bond buybacks at least double in size, $2B to $4B+ per operation. Yields drop. Aug 20 — BTC breaks the six-week range, tops $71K. Roughly $3B of shorts liquidated in 24h, largest since 2021. Spot BTC ETFs take $606M. Aug 21-22 — BTC settles around $77.3K, +22.7% on the week. ETH \~$2,360. XRP +39%. Fear and Greed 72. Two of the three catalysts are policy, and policy can be withdrawn. The buyback expansion is the load-bearing one — it's a real change in dollar liquidity, and it's why this looked more like a macro risk-asset repricing than a crypto narrative pump. The part I think is being misread: everyone is calling a top off the Greed reading. But perp funding is only running about +4.7% annualised on the month, and the trailing week cooled to +3.8% — roughly half the long-run +8.4% average. After a +22% week you'd expect funding to be screaming. It isn't. That implies this leg was driven by spot and ETF flow rather than leveraged longs piling in. Which is a genuinely different risk profile than a squeeze top: fewer forced sellers stacked up on the way down, but also much less short fuel left on the way up. The 24h liquidation tape has already flipped two-sided (\~$858M longs vs \~$816M shorts), so the easy direction is gone. What I'm watching rather than predicting: \- Whether ETF inflows keep printing $200M+ days now the squeeze fuel is spent \- Whether funding actually normalises upward, which is when the crowded-long argument becomes real \- Dominance. Alt gains so far look like beta off a BTC breakout, not rotation — the tell would be dominance breaking down while BTC goes sideways. Curious what the bear case is beyond "it went up too fast." Anyone still short, what's the thesis? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

dowuu

Well some Analysts are warning that institutions (BlackRock, ETFs) now control the flow, which has dwarfed the impact of the halving's supply shock. Because daily ETF inflows ($100M - $1B) can now overwhelm the $35M - $40M in new BTC mined daily, this "500-day pattern" may be less precise this time.

Legrosbelge

I'm going to buy a canned-food ETF.

Romanizer

Why not? There even is a XRP ETF. If people want to pay fees for that, someone will offer it.

eiretaco

ETF inflow is 0 as its Sunday and markets are closed. Billions of ETF inflow came all week. And until markets open tomorrow thats parked off. Treat today as noise, or possibly buying opportunity, until ETF money starts rolling.

Porcellanidae

When the majority holds in ETF's this isn't guaranteed anymore.  Self custody is the solution. Do not buy IOU my friends 

djbaerg

And those people don't have very much life savings. If they're not willing or able to buy a government savings bond, or a mutual fund, or an ETF, they're not going to be convinced to buy bitcoin based on the argument that their cash loses a few percent in value each year.

eiretaco

I do that too. I have allocations to different asset classes. Bitcoin is looking hot right now though. ETF inflows are effectively 0 today as markets are shut. Today represents a good buying opportunity as billions in ETF money thats been flowing in all week has hit 0, when markets reopen Monday we may see a reversal. I think today could be a potentially profitable day for the week ahead.

eiretaco

No ETF inflows on Sundays. Billions of ETF money poured in last week, now it's Sunday and thats stopped completely until Monday morning. Thats a massive drop in defensive buying. I suspect today will see a nice dip until Monday morning when ETF support resumes when markets reopen. Id treat it as either noise, or an opportunity if you have dry powder.

eiretaco

ETF inflow will be parked off for Sunday until Monday. So buying pressure will be reduced. Today is a good time to stack before ETF money starts rolling on Monday. Billions in ETF money was rolling in during the week, I suspect there will be a brief discount today while that dissapears until markets open tomorrow and the money begins rolling again... Good time to start for them OP

Used_Weight5550

Isn’t the whole point of investing in bitcoin to hedge the world economy collapsing? If the dollar remains as the world global reserve currency, there is no use for bitcoin. Either bitcoin or gold would replace the dollar if the growing country risk of the US caused everyone to dump their T bills. In that case the company’s running those ETF’s are probably going under, so it doesn’t seem to me like there is much hedge value in bitcoin on an exchange compared to personally held

KryptoSC

Speaking from firsthand experience, if you or anyone plans to diversify their Bitcoins, the best way to do it IMO is to convert your real Bitcoins to one of the ETFs like IBIT and buy ETF equivalents of gold or silver or even real estate. Then when you are ready to exchange portions of it for gold or silver, you can click a button to sell and another click of a button to buy GLD/SLV/VNQ. This is the most frictionless way to exchange. If you buy actual bullion or real estate, then you will be dealing with expensive transaction fees and other inconveniences.

NoobPwnr

Can you say more about the tax burden? Maybe there was a taxable event to sell the BTC to then buy the ETF? I’m kind of with you on your sentiment and might follow suit.

DiamondHandsDarrell

I think the high $50Ks are becoming less likely unless something seriously breaks. BTC just pushed into the upper $70Ks after absorbing months of ugly macro, and now ETF demand is coming back while the dollar has weakened. I still expect pullbacks and a lot of chop, especially after a move this fast, but the question has changed. We’re not waiting to see if BTC can get back to $74K anymore, we’re watching whether it can hold the mid $70Ks and turn this into a real trend toward $80K and eventually $100K+. I think the bear phase looks a lot closer to ending than starting.

bb0110

That is a fair point. If you have to withdraw fairly regularly or you need it right away when you need it and not just using it as a store of value, then the ETF is not a great instrument.

Astrynlow

The squeeze was the accelerator, not necessarily the fuel. The real test is whether spot and ETF demand keeps pushing BTC higher after the forced short covering ends

fortisfortunadiuvat7

¿Sera un movimiento coordinado de hackers para convencer a poseedores de autocustodia a pasarse a los ETF?

OneLazyFiveO

Because it’s detached from the CEX market for the most part. It’s been removed from a majority of the exchanges due to regulation concerns. Andddd no ones applying for an XMR ETF like ZEC has.

Pristine-Bee-269

I did self custody and ETF, but it's really difficult to sell the ETF at your desired price sometimes because it's not 24/7

jazerac

This guy understands whats going on. This could easily get below $70k again. This was a short squeeze which drove the price up in addition to ETF inflows. I exited yesterday. Will wait until it goes below $70k.

JumpProfessional3372

Yeah self custody is not for anyone. But exchanges are also not good for big sums. I guess safest is having ETF shares tied to BTC price. But that cannot be spent directly like in self custody. And can also be blocked by the depository

Wrong-Contest-9617

Guess there is no way to keep it safe then. I guess ETF is the best opinion

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

DiamondHandsDarrell

The squeeze didn’t just come out of nowhere. Treasury moved to increase long bond buybacks, long yields eased, the dollar weakened, and BTC already had a couple days of ETF inflows behind it. That gave Bitcoin the initial push through the resistance area everyone had been shorting against. Once BTC broke through that level, the shorts started getting liquidated. When a short gets liquidated, the position has to buy BTC back, so that forced buying pushes the price higher, which liquidates more shorts, which creates even more buying. That’s how you end up with roughly $1.4B in shorts getting wiped out in a few hours and BTC basically going straight up. So the short squeeze was the accelerator, not necessarily the original cause. Now the important part is whether actual spot and ETF buyers keep buying after all that forced short covering fuel is gone. So far, they haven’t disappeared. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now had five straight days of inflows, roughly $1.9B total, so there is real demand underneath the move and not just forced short covering. Next week is going to test that. Bessent speaks Monday with Iran sanctions and the Treasury bond intervention both in focus. Wednesday we get PCE inflation, the GDP revision and Nvidia earnings, then Jackson Hole and Warsh at the end of the week. Long yields are still extremely high and oil/Hormuz is still a mess. If BTC can keep holding while all of that gets thrown at it and ETF money keeps coming in, then this starts looking like something much bigger than a short squeeze.

DiamondHandsDarrell

The squeeze didn’t just come out of nowhere. Treasury moved to increase long bond buybacks, long yields eased, the dollar weakened, and BTC already had a couple days of ETF inflows behind it. That gave Bitcoin the initial push through the resistance area everyone had been shorting against. Once BTC broke through that level, the shorts started getting liquidated. When a short gets liquidated, the position has to buy BTC back, so that forced buying pushes the price higher, which liquidates more shorts, which creates even more buying. That’s how you end up with roughly $1.4B in shorts getting wiped out in a few hours and BTC basically going straight up. So the short squeeze was the accelerator, not necessarily the original cause. Now the important part is whether actual spot and ETF buyers keep buying after all that forced short covering fuel is gone. So far, they haven’t disappeared. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now had five straight days of inflows, roughly $1.9B total, so there is real demand underneath the move and not just forced short covering. Next week is going to test that. Bessent speaks Monday with Iran sanctions and the Treasury bond intervention both in focus. Wednesday we get PCE inflation, the GDP revision and Nvidia earnings, then Jackson Hole and Warsh at the end of the week. Long yields are still extremely high and oil/Hormuz is still a mess. If BTC can keep holding while all of that gets thrown at it and ETF money keeps coming in, then this starts looking like something much bigger than a short squeeze.

Romanizer

Obviously. ETF figures are openly available. During the last 4 days they added about 4% of the total net flows since inception, about $2 billion net buys alone for the ETFs.

LionRivr

Lol dude the real clown has 17 downvotes saying “that’s now how shorting works” As everyone else proceeds to respond and correct you. You’re butthurt because your own made-up definition of “shorting” is different than the actual real definition lol. Buying puts is a bearish move. It’s still not shorting. Inverse ETF’s are ETF’s. Still not shorting. Whatever other bearish derivative you can think of is still not shorting. I can keep going if you’d like. But I suggest you just take the L and let it go man. Accept the mistake and move on with life. Have some humility and don’t let an internet stranger like me ruin your good mood from all the gains you got from “doing this for a living”. Wish you the best.