ETF

NatBitty

It’s ETF supply now.

spid3rfly

This particular cycle we've seen more institutional and bitcoin treasury companies come in. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the macro conditions have 'everyone' freaked out so if they have their ETF shares, they're selling, and once those coins are dumped on the market, the price reflects it. Still yet... it's bizarre that we've dropped in the way that we have recently.

Throwaway4VPN

ETF outflows for today are gonna be fucking wild. Shall increase the weekly DCA for the next few months!

Hoescallmesanta22

The ETF + institutional wave does change the game. With banks and big funds involved, price action is definitely more influenced by macro flows, narratives, and good old-fashioned market games than pure on-chain fundamentals. That said, “manipulated” cuts both ways. Institutions bring deeper liquidity, longer time horizons, and more legitimacy, which can also dampen some of the wild DeFi-era chaos. It’s less cypherpunk, more TradFi with a crypto wrapper. So yeah different market, different rules. Anyone trading it like 2017 DeFi is probably gonna get surprised 😅

sixjasefive

The ones that paid over 100K. I’m not anti bc, but I’ve done well with ETF’s over time to retirement level and bc fascinates me but not enough to buy back in after my original time in/out.

footybay12

Same. Ffs really thought the introduction of ETF's and genuine wall street involvement would trump the 4 year halving cycles narrative

MGreymanN

FBTC is a spot ETF and is required to directly own the underlying asset. They cannot own derivatives and similar to track the price and this is enforced by the SEC. They own the assets under Fidelity Digital Asset services and is segregated in different wallets with most being offline. This organization is regulated by New York Department of Finacial services and are required to own 1:1 reserves. They also have quarterly SEC filing that show how much they own.

baIIern

I mean, we also thought that during 2022 and it was the best time to buy. But I'm thinking different this time. After all the ETF stuff, what will be the driver of the next bull? There is no narrative left

AnusMistakus

forget about technicals, everyone was screaming 78 is the floor, then 67... bottom is in once ETFs sell half of their coins. this is planned robbery against ETF holders who paid 80k+ per coin. once they capitulate and sell their coins for half the price, we go back up.

FinallyArt

Was an ETF holder who only sold today. Hit my limit after watching this daily since Oct. No other asset drops anything like this... that store of value bs will never work again.

mikehaueisen94

So your flex is that in four years, Bitcoin would be up 62% from its all time high? Buddy you can just buy any broad-market ETF for those kind of returns lmao

jpdoctor

One of the advantages of bitcoin is that you can see a lot of the characteristics of \*who\* is selling. One of those characteristics is how long those folks have been holding their BTC. Here is a [great post summarizing that info.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1qwc6do/comment/o3pvpib/?context=3) From that link: \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ Another gem of an observation from [Eric Balchunas](https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/2019404292294312339?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw), Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg: > TradFi has seen net outflows YTD but majority of sell pressure isn’t coming from TradFi, it’s coming from short to medium term HODLers as demonstrated by the [HODL waves chart](https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/hodl-waves/). YTD >10 years cohort increased their share from 17.2% to 17.36%. YTD 7-10 years cohort increased their share from 8.34% to 8.5%. YTD 5-7 years cohort increased their share from 5.67% to 5.74%. It’s the cohorts below these who are predominantly selling as their percentage of total BTC held has been decreasing since the year started.

General_Josh

Just out of curiosity, do you hold your bitcoin in your own personal wallet? Or do you buy it in the form of an ETF/custodial wallet?

ODD_Old_Dirty_Degen

Blackrock only buys BTC when there are net inflows into their ETF. For a more detailed explanation I suggest you ask AI about it.

TheNobodyThere

Let's face the reality. Whoever wanted to buy the bitcoin had the opportunity to do so. It was available to every single person, even your grandma could have bought bitcoin ETF. It didn't work out. Now the reality sets in and combined with recession, we are about to see 80-90% drop and then slow rise again.

rtublin

I am buying the ETF in my IRA with tax-deferred dollars

Low_Importance6263

People realise that the days of 10X are finally over. The ETF's mean the little guy is just a sucker for the big guys to take money from. They don't care about the price. They have the time to wait. Little guy doesn't.

Tempestdoor76

The "Warsh Shock" (Federal Reserve Policy) The single biggest catalyst was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chairman on January 30, 2026.  • The impact: Wall Street views Warsh as a "Hard Money" advocate who supports higher interest rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet.  • The result: This signaled an abrupt end to the era of "cheap money," causing investors to pull out of high-risk assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks. 2. Failure of the "Safe Haven" Narrative Historically, Bitcoin was pitched as "Digital Gold"—a hedge against geopolitical chaos. However, recent events proved the opposite: • Middle East Tensions: As tensions escalated in late January, investors didn't buy Bitcoin; they sold it to move into cash and actual gold. • The Identity Crisis: While gold surged to record highs above $4,700/oz in January, Bitcoin fell, leading many institutional investors to treat it as a "high-beta tech stock" rather than a store of value.  3. ETF Outflows & Liquidation Cascades The "Big Money" that drove the 2025 rally is now the same money leaving the building: • Record ETF Outflows: US Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.5 billion in outflows in the last week alone.  • Forced Liquidations: Over $5.4 billion in leveraged "Long" positions were wiped out in a single 72-hour window. This created a "liquidation domino effect" where falling prices triggered automatic sells, which pushed prices even lower.  4. Macro Headwinds • Government Shutdown: Fears of a partial US government shutdown in late January/early February created a "Risk-Off" environment where traders preferred the safety of the US Dollar. • AI Bubble Concerns: A broader sell-off in AI-related tech stocks (which you likely see in your NVDA/MSFT holdings) has bled over into crypto, as they are often part of the same "innovation" trade.

Juice79man

I remember back a couple months ago saying this was gonna happen. I sold at 115k. Everyone shot on me saying it wasn’t gonna go below 100k. When I said we’d see 60k qt least everyone laughed at me saying no chance. It will never drop that low again. But, But, But, the ETF’s. The mass adoption. It’s gonna become less volatile now and more stable because of these reasons. It’s quite apparent people haven’t been around BTC long enough to know this happens every 4 years. But, But, But the 4!year cycle is over….. Currently down 52k from all time high. I said I’d start my DCA at 60k all the way down and back up. My suggestion to people who are new to crypto (4 years or less) is to learn the cycles and listen to people who have been around through previous cycles.

BaldGuyAce

What institutions are you talking about? BlackRock and Fidelity don’t actually own any bitcoin for themselves. The only bitcoin they own are what they have to buy because of the people who bought their ETF. If bitcoin goes to zero, BlackRock just loses some fees, but they’ll be fine.

Even-Leave4099

Exactly this. The whole ETF and hoarding of bitcoin by large institutional investors is what is destroying bitcoin.  Short term gains to move away from the initial purpose of bitcoin will be its demise. 

ghostsolid

I’m sure the ETF panic sellers are not far behind!

pigeons1

The other times you could say, wait until we get a pro-crypto president, wait until we get a pro crypto SEC, wait until crypto regulations are less onerous, wait until we get an ETF, wait until we get mainstream attention, etc. this time you van wait for more details about Epstein's funding or wait for SBF to get pardoned or wait for a use case besides scamming.

Special_Ordinary1951

At the end of the day no one knows what the market is going to do…everyone is guessing based off historic patterns. Crypto didn’t perform the way anyone expected it to and the market humbled a lot of people. When everyone is 100% certain the market will do something that’s when it tends throw people a curveball, could just be a massive late cycle correction. Your best bet is to accumulate assets on days that feel like crypto will never make a comeback. Preferably that bring tradfi to crypto and ones that have ETF’s or pending ones. Btc eth sol xrp Tao hype ondo link syrup…sei is my high risk play.

CIM2000

0 direct fee but the MER of the etf is 0.33% -- IBIT-C I use Disnat and I can only buy ETF with spot bitcoin to have the exposure.

Legitimate_Cry_5194

I know one thing, stock market is 3% down from its ATH and BTC is 42% down. Tells you all you need to know about where the BTC price is heading if the stock market does a 20%-bear market territory-retrace. When the BTC price ends up where it will, use your own intuition, end up, Strategy will be under severe pressure to sell some of her holdings, and make no mistake that she will. It's not going to bankrupt Strategy and it won't destroy BTC, but it will be a huge blow both to the company and to an industry that has 99% of her eggs in the baskets of Strategy, of ETF flows and of a "crypto" president. Keep dry powder available and don't try to catch that falling knife.

Necessary-Nature-380

I'm convinced the absolute dip is around $50k which isn't too far away. Once all the liquidity is sucked out, whales can't make any money and it certainly won't have any huge institutional outflows from ETFs.... assuming it returns to it's price pre-ETF level. That's the great thing with bitcoin.... fixed amount and no money printing... 1BTC = 1BTC. I am certain it will rise again, USD is supposedly weak... and the trading pair with BTC is well.... not accurate...

CIM2000

I can't. Its a registered account.. issuer must be from Canada in CAD. So its an spot ETF

particlecore

Do you even understand how an ETF works?

After_Club6421

The flaw is the ETFs. They will sell, and sell, and sell. There isn’t enough retail demand to match the ETF flow if it goes on

Dramatic-Tackle-792

Time. It will take time. Banks are positioning to sell bitcoin products to clients. They have invested billions setting this up and they need more coin to do it. They can suppress the price for months by just slowing down ETF purchases. Their deals are done OTC with miners and brokers so their price is fixed for months. They don't want higher prices. What they want is BITCOIN. They are dragging out this crabwalk so traders get bored and sell and longs and shorts get forced out. It's like a coiled spring. There are enough big players in the game to make a supply squeeze inevitable. The news has been great all through last second half of 2026 and no moon. There's massive support at $75K because that's the institutional buy-in and that's what they pitched to pension funds and high net worth clients. Big money doesn't get emotional but it banks on small money getting emotional. Don't let them win!

Dramatic-Tackle-792

It's a leverage flush. Everything's fine. Institutions stop buying bitcoin and ETF to lower the price. Longs and shorts get forced to sell. The price goes down and big money harvests more corn.

Longjumping-Pop7512

And Blackrock rolling eyes what it got into. Try explaining ETF to a mooner 🤣

joetacos

I bought 12k in ETF close to the high. Down 37%. Not selling or buying. Just going to ride it out. Hopefully I don't have to add cash to cover my margin. I have been buying SPMO and SMH.

Few_Ad_3557

There really arent any big money institutions that hold actual crypto. They hold ETF’s that mirror it, there’s a big difference. Tesla had a bunch and sold it long ago, and I think Goldman actually a decent chunk on their balance sheet for awhile but its a common misconception that banks hold this stuff. They service it, which is lucrative, but dont own it.

baIIern

Yeah 'bro' it wouldn't be the first ETF to be liquidated

_TheWolfOfWalmart_

Big money isn't that interested in ETH. Daily ETF volumes have been a small fraction of BTC ETF volumes.

TeachLazy

Early investors who are cashing out big and ETF outflows imo.

No-Inspector8315

Mate all due respect, but if you need ChatGPT to format your investment strategy coherently, than you’re probably better off selling at a loss and trading ETF’s

XXsforEyes

Key idea is, and will continue to be, not enough Bitcoin. The price will go up, the price will go down, the price will chop sideways because of macro trends, whale manipulation, ETF inflows/outflows etc. But zooming out there will NEVER BE ENOUGH. All that is to say: Buy the💩 out of the dip!!

Aerocryptic

>You guys know what happens when ETF holders are starting to sell The ETFs have been mostly red since October. The inflows match almost perfectly BTC's price

baIIern

Bitcoin in free fall. You guys know what happens when ETF holders are starting to sell, right? The ETFs might be closed and liquidated if they become small enough

Critical_Letterhead3

Another reason to buy Blackrock. This stock reminds me of a giant ETF

Elegant-Act4876

How an ETF can be stopped 1. Regulators can shut it down Because ETFs exist by permission: • Approval can be revoked • Rules can change • New restrictions can be imposed • Trading can be halted This happens in markets all the time—for reasons ranging from fraud to “systemic risk.” Bitcoin doesn’t ask permission. ETFs do. ⸻ 2. Exchanges can halt trading ETFs only work during market hours, on approved exchanges. • Volatility halt? Trading stops • Market emergency? Trading stops • Political or legal order? Trading stops Bitcoin trades 24/7/365, globally, with no circuit breakers. ⸻ 3. Custodians are a single point of failure Every Bitcoin ETF relies on custodians. That introduces: • Counterparty risk • Legal seizure risk • Operational failure risk If a custodian is frozen, hacked, or legally constrained: The ETF can’t function normally. Bitcoin custody can be self-sovereign. ETFs cannot. ⸻ 4. Creation/redemption can be blocked ETFs stay in sync with price through a creation/redemption mechanism. Regulators or issuers can: • Pause redemptions • Limit creations • Change settlement rules When that breaks, ETFs can: • Trade at premiums • Trade at discounts • Become disconnected from reality Bitcoin itself never stops settling. ⸻ 5. ETFs are jurisdiction-bound An ETF lives inside one legal system. If that jurisdiction decides: • “No more Bitcoin exposure” • “Capital controls apply” • “Foreign assets frozen” The ETF obeys. Bitcoin just routes around it. ⸻ ⸻ The key distinction (this matters) Let’s put it bluntly: • Bitcoin is unstoppable because it has no choke points • ETFs are stoppable because they have many choke points Bitcoin survives even if: • Every ETF shuts down • Every exchange halts • Every bank refuses service ETFs do not survive without: • Regulators • Exchanges • Custodians • Issuers

Elegant-Act4876

I can think of several ways an ETF can be stopped….. goes to zero

Open_Situation686

So basically because you have unlimited conviction it will never fail. That’s what makes it safer than a broad market ETF. And you are calling people ignorant over this. Bruh.

Lavayo

Honestly? No. It sucks. I joined in 24 with the ETF run, and did a DCA since then. I'm at my cost basis now. I'm not worried in the long term, everything is fine. It's just that I'm basically all in and compared to what's already on my hw wallet my DCA amount won't matter that much. And since I don't try to sell high buy low I just have to wait. In the end I would prefer us skipping 2 years over having 5% more. That's just my personal feeling though, it's not that I would sell it anyways.

Fear_Blind83

You mean Blackrock's IBIT ETF customers sold.. https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf

-909-

I find it interesting that many models are seemingly 'broken' lately. To be fair there's a disclaimer on the Pi Cycle Top Indicator page and probably some of the others too: >"It is also worth noting that this indicator has worked during Bitcoin's adoption growth phase, the first 15 years or so of Bitcoin's life. With the launch of Bitcoin ETF's and Bitcoin's increased integration into the global financial system, this indicator may cease to be relevant in this new market structure." Also I've been wondering how much psychology is at play with regards to these cycles as well as the halving/4 year cycles. The 'top' is *supposed to be* 18 months after the halving; 2026 is *supposed to be* a bear market, and so on. I wonder how many people sold in October believing it to be the top 18 months after the halving. They look pretty vindicated today but all those models say that wasn't the top. Bitcoin seems more unpredictable than ever to me.

CatchNo2865

Always play the long game with crypto. There are short ETF s that are easy to enter / exit so you can catch greenies on the way down !!

Internet_is_tough

Institutions sell - The most relevant institutions are bitcoin treasuries. There has been only one sale of BTC from 200 crypto treasuries in 2025. MSTR is a ticking time bomb - MSTR is 10% levered into their BTC purchases with convertible dept and payable dividends. They already have enough cash to cover the dividends for 2 years, the convertible dept needs to be serviced in tranches starting at 2028, and they can easily roll it over. MSTR will not sell a single bitcoin unless BTC price goes below 25k and stays there for a decade ETF inflows do not go up - IBIT was the most successful ETF launch in history. In the history of the world. 1.5 years after all big financial institutions have launched or are launching multiple BTC related ETFs (income, leverage, non leverage, crypto industry etc). Sounds like a failure right? Treasuries dumping - The treasury business model has no dumping as part of the strategy - MSTR has survived the crypto winter, prices well below their average buy price, BTC sold? ZERO. Treasuries are lean companies, BMNR is run by 10 people. They don't need cash. They have no reason to dump besides buying their own shares if MNAV is way below 1. Leverage is insane. 10/10 event was the single biggest liquidation event in history. All the leverage has been wiped from the system. The only leverage actually left is short. QE - irrelevant speculative. So yes wrong on 6/6 points.

LostNtranslation_

You might also check brokerage accounts in case he has BTC ETF. Its not likely but would answer the question. Perhaps a vacation home. Known password for wifi or other accounts might be the 25th word. You might find washers on a bolt. A crossword puzzle.

paullofurno

Unfortunately a tough lesson to learn. In the future put your money in the stock market. The S&P ETF You will make money over time and never wake up to that nightmare again.

GoldmezAddams

For every buyer, there's a seller on the other end. For every hardcore hodler who realizes the game is to acquire as much BTC as possible before everyone else gets wise, there's a trader looking to exit their position in exchange for dollars. And my honest read is that sentiment is weirdly down in the dumps right now, despite being well above last cycle's all time high. I think people were expecting a more insane bull run than we got, paper bitcoin dampened the volatility, and now they're disappointed that they haven't gotten rich quick. On top of that, I think $100k was a big psychological number that prompted some long time holders to finally cash some out for their lambos. Plus, I think a lot of the ETF crowd got in at $90k plus and don't have the experience of holding through past cycles of volatility. Those guys must really be sweating and wondering if they should cut their losses. I assume we'll shake out the weak hands and start grinding back up. Of course, I can't see the future, and we could certainly test more lows before that happens. I'll be happy to scoop up more discount sats, if so.

JerseyJimmyAsheville

Check the high to the lows in a Bitcoin 4 year cycle. Bitcoin has dropped 70% from the high to the low in each cycle. That means $126k x .30 to find what Bitcoin could drop to, which is appx $38-$39k. Liquidity due to ETF’s and options markets may keep it above these levels, but as m as ny know, Bitcoin will do what it wants.

Inevitable_Pin7755

I have been through this exact headspace before and honestly the mental part is the hardest bit, not the drawdown itself. A 30 to 40 percent drop feels brutal when it is your first real cycle, but historically it has been very normal for Bitcoin. In past cycles there were multiple drops like this even during strong bull phases. People forget that because they only remember the final chart going up and to the right. Most of the recent weakness is not some secret failure of Bitcoin. It is a mix of liquidity tightening, people front running ETF hype and then selling the news, leverage getting flushed out, and general risk off behaviour when rates stay higher for longer. None of that changes the long term supply dynamics or why people hold BTC in the first place. The mistake most people make is thinking they have to do something. Cut losses, time the bottom, go all in, whatever. In reality the edge for normal people has always been boring. Position size that lets you sleep, long time horizon, and adding slowly when sentiment is bad rather than when everyone feels clever. If you believed in Bitcoin enough to buy it near the top, the worst moment to abandon that belief is when it is hurting emotionally. That is usually when the transfer of coins from impatient hands to patient ones happens. I write about this stuff from a very normal person perspective, not trader talk or moon posts. I bought badly, panicked before, learned the hard way. If anyone finds that useful it is on my profile. Either way you are not crazy for feeling this way. This is just what holding Bitcoin actually feels like in real time.

BBPinkman

I also bought the top and have been DCA my way down to 73k. In addition to self storage I thought it would be a good idea to pick up the Bitcoin ETF. It was not because I couldn’t stop fixating on the ETF dragging my portfolio down. Now I use strike and think in Sats not dollars.

AfricanSnowOwl

Paywall link, but I’d imagine it had something to do with CRO being in the discussion of being in the gov reserve or also getting an ETF

equality997

Are you buying bitcoin in ETF or buying directly via coinbase and other crypto exchanges

PaulieWoz

I'm probably going to get down voted, but check out TRX. If you strictly look at the technicals and the chart over the last 5 years, it outperformed BTC and most other top 20 coins. When everything else drops. TRX stays flat thanks to USDT. I'd say it's a good hedge and holding it along with BTC/ETH might be a good idea. Sprinkle in some silver, gold and a global equity ETF and I think you'd do just fine. :) Now I know how we all feel about these two, but you can't deny it's resilience when everything else dumps. PS. I don't own any TRX but my FIL does and rubs it in my face every time the market dumps. LoL

buzzyfairy

I'm -35% right now and invested about 17k at ATH lolz. I now buy between 1500$ and 2000$ per month and it barely changes the average loss. Hold on there, the bear market usually dips as much as 70-78%. It probably will go lower. The reason why I bought were because of theories about the end of the 4year cycle since institutionalization with ETF and capacity to borrow on BTC for mortgage. Those theories were wrong and here we are. It might bounce back but the worst case scenario is probably gonna be -70/75% from ATH. I made up my mind that I'm not selling anything until 2029-2030. I might sell some when it reaches a new ATH + 60% from the last ATH, therefore minimally 192k$. I'm also probably gonna hold some even tho the bear market after will probably go as low as 58k (if the usual dip applies). Timing the market is hard. so hold on there. Either you continue your strategy like me, or you buy way less and save for something else you need or you wait until breaking even (don't do that)

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Post is by: B_Boy_Breaker and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/Monero/comments/1qttvxu/the_modern_crypto_trap_why_i_believe_xmr_is_the/ **TL;DR:** The "Digital Gold" promise of BTC is failing as physical gold outperforms it in stability. Meanwhile, mining has become a "Big Fish" game for corporations/governments, and KYC exchanges have turned crypto into "Bank 2.0." While most coins are "glass houses" where everyone can track your money, Monero (XMR) is the only one maintaining the original cypherpunk vision of privacy and decentralization—which is exactly why the system is trying to delist it. **----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------** **Disclaimer:** *I am not a financial adviser. These are my personal thoughts and an honest vision of the current market state. Let’s discuss.* # 1. The Digital Gold Narrative Has Shifted For years, we were told BTC is "Digital Gold." But look at the real-world performance in 2025–2026. **Actual physical gold** recently broke $5,000/oz, acting as a true shield during global instability. Meanwhile, BTC has become a "Wall Street Asset"—highly sensitive to interest rates and ETF flows. It hasn't failed as an investment, but it *has* failed to be the independent, stable alternative to the system we were promised. # 2. The Mining Centralization "Big Fish" The dream of "one CPU, one vote" is dead for most. * **BTC/ASIC Centralization:** Governments and massive industrial mining pools now control the hashrate. The "small miners" who were supposed to be the backbone of the network have been squeezed out because they aren't profitable. * **Market Manipulation:** When a few "Big Fish" (institutions and gov-linked pools) control the supply and the hashrate, they control the price. They eat the small retail investors by manipulating market movements with massive buy/sell walls. # 3. The KYC Iron Curtain The freedom to send and receive money has become a joke. Centralized exchanges (CEXs) have turned crypto into **"Bank 2.0."** * You cannot benefit from your own coins without handing over your ID, location, and a biometric scan. * KYC doesn't just "verify" you; it links your sovereign wealth to a government database, allowing them to freeze or track your assets just like a traditional bank. # 4. The "Glass House" Privacy Lie We were promised privacy, but we got a public ledger where every transaction is a permanent record for the world to see. Blockchain forensics (Chainalysis/Elliptic) have made BTC and other "transparent" coins a surveillance officer's dream. # The Monero Difference: A New Era? This is why I’ve been looking at the few projects that actually kept the promise. * **Monero (XMR) vs. The Delisting War:** In late 2024 and 2025, we saw major exchanges like Kraken and Binance delist XMR in Europe (EEA) due to MiCA regulations. Why? Because Monero **actually works**. It’s the only coin that regulators are truly afraid of because they *can’t* see inside the "Glass House." * **Mining for the People:** While others moved to ASICs, Monero’s **RandomX** keeps mining accessible to regular people with CPUs. With the rise of **P2Pool**, the community is fighting back against the centralization that killed BTC’s independence. * **A Stable Alternative:** Interestingly, assets like **PAX Gold (PAXG)** have shown that people still crave the stability of gold. But while PAXG gives you gold, only **Monero** gives you the "Cash" experience—fungible, private, and peer-to-peer. **Conclusion:** I believe we are entering a new era. The "number go up" phase of centralized crypto is being replaced by a "utility and freedom" phase. Monero isn't just another coin; it’s a possible blueprint for what crypto was always supposed to be before the banks and big fish moved in. **What are your thoughts? Is the "transparency" of the top 10 coins a feature or a fatal flaw?** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

cooltone

There are X main components driving the bitcoin price. 1. The Power-law. This an observation that past performance sits on a trend line described by a Power-law of price against the age of the bitcoin network. I prefer to use a single Power-law trend line which marks the minimum price against network age. This trend line always goes up, which is why many recommend hodling - because eventually you will be in the black. 2. The Halving step function. On top of the Power-law is the halving effect. It appears cyclical and occurs roughly every three years. I believe the halving is a step function impulse and the price behaviour is the impulse response on the network. The block reward is halved and after a delay the price rises (bull market) and eventually returns to the base state described in 1 (bear market). Since the impulse response is reduced every four years, it has a diminishing effect. Interestingly the rate at which the price returns to the base state also seems similar after the bull market. 3. Speculation Speculation sits on top of both of these and has a -ve and +ve impact on the price. In some cases the base state price is never reached due early/speculative buying. Once you are aware of the base state price you can estimate whether the price is over or under bought. It's not easy because of the volatility caused by speculation. Most movement is due retail directly and indirectly (via institutions). If ETF retail decides to sell, the institutions sell on their behalf, but I expect they can time when and make additional profits with options. Who knows. When the price is pushed significantly higher than the base price the reaction is not linear and significant bubbles can form. They move fast and pop quickly - not for the faint hearted - institutional traders as most likely to win this. So mix all this together and you have some idea of why know one really knows what will happen.

LargeSnorlax

Message is still the same, mark a point for an entry and relax. My personal point is just above the original ETF entry point, 55-60k.

kerstn

This broke the whole nr. Of coins on exchanges narrative. All ETF coins are also on exchange effectively

DarrinEagle

The tax code says same or substantially the same. The interpretation of that is left up to your broker who will report the wash sale to you and the IRS. In the spirit of the rule, what you propose should not work. If you do it at the same brokerage house, it probably won't work. You might get away with it if you sell at broker A and use cash at broker B to immediately buy, but again this should not work. Similarly, selling the ETF but buying a call option on the same ETF should not work (but might).

devCheckingIn

Great ETF inflows yesterday.

No-Pepper6969

Lower my capital gain tax and convert them to ETF in tax-free account to later use it a leverage. The lower it gets, the more whole bitcoin I free from tax.

ruibranco

old headline or not, 401(k) access is the real game changer here. that's trillions in retirement money that currently has zero crypto exposure. even a 1-2% allocation across those accounts would dwarf any ETF inflows we've seen so far

HodlPackLeader

That makes sense. ETF flows are probably the cleanest signal right now, especially with IBIT leading the volume. Waiting for redemptions to slow before assuming a floor feels reasonable. I’m less focused on catching an exact bottom and more on whether selling pressure is exhausting rather than reversing. Even neutral days would say a lot. Curious though — do you treat ETF flows as a timing tool, or more as confirmation after price stabilizes?

Moon-Hodler174

I’m looking at the BlackRock (IBIT) data daily right now. We’ve seen nearly $6B leave the ETF complex since November. Until those redemptions turn into even modest net-neutral days, it’s hard to believe the floor is in. I’d rather miss the first 5% of the bounce than catch a falling knife that's being driven by institutional de-risking.

LaurentDuboi

actual sellers seems to be ETF buyers since 24’ who panics for the fear of the ‘cycle always loses 80% in bear markets’

zzx101

If you sell one ETF at a loss and immediately buy a different one would that be a wash sale? For example sell IBIT and buy FBTC.

cooltone

1. Market wobbles as gold and silver bubbles burst 2. ETF newbies panic sell just like bitcoin newbies 3. Bots and media fuel FUD and accelerate the dip by blaming institutions 4. Experienced bitcoiners recognise the fire-sale and buy the dip 5. Bull run and ATH It's a new tale of media manipulation. Only thing is the identity and motivation of the perpetrator is well hidden.

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Post is by: Sos418_tw and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qumzhg/btc_this_week_feels_like_a_classic_riskoff/ Not gonna lie, BTC the last few days has felt less like “some new crypto narrative” and more like the same old macro playbook: risk appetite fades, leverage gets overextended, and then the market does what it always does — it cleans house. What stood out to me wasn’t just the red candles, but how quickly things turned into a forced unwind. A big chunk of the move looked like liquidations cascading (the kind where price action starts driving the flow, not the other way around). And once that starts, it doesn’t really matter if your thesis is “bullish long-term” — short-term it’s just positioning getting reset. The other thing I’m trying to make sense of is ETF flow behavior around the dump. We’ve had a stretch where flows were clearly not helping, then suddenly you get a “big inflow day” right as people are panicking. Is that actual dip-buying by bigger hands, or just flow noise that doesn’t mean much unless it continues for a few sessions? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Open_Situation686

Explain, please, how it’s more ignorant to think that 1 (even the best) cryptocurrency is less likely to go to zero than an ETF that tracks the top 500 companies in the US.

daytrader24365

Just buy Bitcoin, not an ETF

OkSeries5363

I see the issue. ​You are still describing a hedge fund, a speculator but we are talking about market makers, the plumbing. Those are two completely different business models with different rules. BlackRock is the Sponsor. They created the ETF. They are legally forbidden from being the AP for their own fund because that would be a massive conflict of interest. When you sell your ETF shares you arent selling them back to BlackRock. You are selling them on an exchange. The AP takes that share to blackrock and says I dont want this. Give me the underlying Bitcoin. BlackRock cancels the share and hands the AP the Bitcoin. Now the AP has Bitcoin but they need their cash back to keep their business running. So they sell that Bitcoin on the open market immediately. If this happened slowly the ETF would fail to track the underlying.  ​'Holding for a few hours to avoid losses' That is objectively false. Read the risk factors in the official IBIT Prospectus. Blackrock explicitly warns that the ETFs value relies on APs being able to liquidate Bitcoin quickly to maintain the link between the share price and the BTC price. If an AP waits a few hours to see if they can make a gain they are violating their mandate to keep the ETF price tracked to the underlying. They are failing at their one job. Providing liquidity. Its also a misunderstanding of institutional risk. APs like JPMorgan or Jane Street operate under strict VaR limits. If an AP receives $100 million dollars in BTC and waits a few hours to see if the price goes up they are taking an unhedged directional bet with the banks own capital. Risk departments dont allow wait and see they require delta neutrality. They sell or hedge instantly because their profit comes from the arbitrage spread not the price move. In high finance learning to fly with the firms liquidity is a firing offense.    ​'They choose the price' Bitcoin is a global commodity. If an AP tries to sell $100M of BTC above the market price at their own prerogative, nobody will buy it. They sell into the global spot market at the prevailing bid because they need to settle the cash side of the trade immediately. They dont choose the price any more than you choose the price of a stock when you hit the market sell button. ​The cash loop issue This is the part you arent understanding. If the AP doesnt sell the Bitcoin where do they get the cash to pay the next thousand retail investors who want to sell? Thats their whole job. When retail sells the ETF the AP uses their own cash to buy those shares. They then hand those shares to Blackrock to get the Bitcoin. At this point the AP is out of cash and long Bitcoin. To stay in business they must sell that Bitcoin to get their cash back so they can facilitate the next trade. If they dont sell the Bitcoin they are just sitting there with a drained bank account and a pile of crypto. They are a bank not a holder.  Your missing the clearest evidence we have! How in sync the APs keep the price. The fact that iBIT maintains such a tight tracking error to its NAV is proof that the arbitrage mechanism is working exactly as intended. APs arent holding for a better exit they are executing high speed delta neutral arbitrage. Their objective is to capture the spread while minimizing exposure to the underlying assets volatility. If they waited for a better price as you suggest the ETF share price would decouple from the Bitcoin price creating a massive discount or premium. The near perfect tracking we see is the result of APs clearing their inventory immediately to recoup liquidity and eliminate price risk. ​You are arguing about what a speculator could do if they wanted to gamble, Im simply explaining what a liquidity provider must do to remain an AP. If they dont sell the underlying they arent an AP anymore they are just a very unhedged hedge fund.

HueBalls1

If this is your plan, stick to it. Just have a plan for every scenario. If it never gets there, if it goes to 30k, if it goes sideways for 2 years. Most people in this sub are complete bulltards and will tell you BTC will be at 500k next month because this time is different and ETF’s, or the FED, or Michael Saylor blah blah blah. Just my two cents, if this is like prior bear markets, we’re gonna be going down lower than most people think, and for longer than most people think. There will be rallies in between to fake people out.

LargeSnorlax

I'm just going to repeat the same thing I tell everyone who asks me about Bitcoin - If you're not interested in the *actual cryptocurrency space*, you should never, ever buy Bitcoin or crypto. If you don't understand the actual space, the chance you're ever going to make money is basically zero, because you're starting off from a losing position right from the start. The answer I get when I ask them why they want Bitcoin is pretty much always *"I want to make money."* - Whenever I hear that, i tell them not to buy it. They *will* lose money and they *will* fail if they don't understand the space, without fail. You're stacking the deck against yourself. You as a retail investor *will* fail because you aren't a bank or an ETF, so if anyone is reading this and wants to be in this space, you *must* understand why this space exists in the first place, or you *will* lose all your money.

ThePugz

Never been tons of institutional buyers involved. The addition of multiple ETF’s holding well over 1 million BTC is a total game changer. The only reason you’re even seeing this much of a drop is because of morons gambling like crazy with borrowing on margin to buy more BTC near an ATH. Their positions got sold because of margin calls leading to this current drop. They’ve been washed out of the market now.

Scott7894

They may be buying bitcoin for the ETF but they aren’t buying for themselves. Why? Because one day in the future they will a liquidate the ETF, payoff the customers at the market prices and keep the bitcoins for themselves.

Haunting_Tackle_3518

Smart move by them, especially at that price point. When exchanges are willing to stack during the fear it usually means they're seeing something the panic sellers aren't The timing with all the ETF buyers underwater makes it even more bullish imo - they're essentially betting on recovery while everyone else is freaking out

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Post is by: Beneficial-Hope68 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qu1e5u/bitcoin_falls_below_75000_what_it_means_for_the/ Bitcoin has broken below the $75K level, a key psychological and technical zone. This breakdown increases downside risk in the short term and may keep overall market sentiment cautious. Key considerations: Loss of momentum above $75K weakens bullish structure Liquidity may be targeted at lower support levels Altcoins could remain under pressure if BTC dominance stays elevated Market reaction to ETF flows and macro data is critical Until Bitcoin reclaims $75K with strong volume, this move should be treated as a risk-off signal, not a dip-buy confirmation. What levels are you watching next? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

OkBuy4754

Accumulation confirmed: BTC/ETF inflows signal strength, alts in liquidity traps. Allocate 85% BTC until alt rotation. Cycle's maturing - less retail frenzy, more institutional EV. Netted $16k last month on BTC swings.

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Post is by: Legal-Net-4909 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qtxz8w/is_the_current_crypto_market_showing_accumulation/ Bitcoin continues to hold a central position, and ETF inflows have provided a certain level of stability. However, most altcoins are still underperforming, with many projects trading below their 2022 bear market levels. Liquidity remains thin, new narratives are slow to emerge, and retail participation is still limited. One view is that this reflects a maturing market, where capital is concentrating in Bitcoin and a small number of highly liquid assets. Another view is that the lack of fresh inflows is pushing the market into a prolonged period of weakness, especially for altcoins. The question is whether the structure of the crypto cycle has changed, or if this is simply another corrective phase within a familiar cycle. * Focus on Bitcoin or still allocate to altcoins? * In what way is the current cycle different from previous cycles? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Astrofide

This is not self-custody and functions exactly the same as an ETF IOU.

ExpressElevator2Heck

The Fidelity ETF holders probably haven't even panic sold yet. That probably happens this week.

Simke11

>these big institutions are going to panic sell, right? their customers who bought their ETFs are going to panic sell, ETF providers couldn't care less what the price is, they are in it for trading fees. BTC they hold is bought using money that their customers paid for buying ETF shares.

TheManWithTheBigBall

ETF’s being widely included as small pieces of a larger portfolio should keep inflows relatively steady over time. The ETF’s and widespread adoption should make the bitcoin winters have a steady increase (not volatile) in value, now. I think we’re at the real value around 70K (based on the btc power law and current band). Now (or once the price settles at a new low) is usually the best time to dca, and stack as many sats as you can before the next hype cycle sets in with the halving.

JuxtaposeLife

There are ways to get a Roth on chain so you don't have to trust someone else with your BTC... recommend you look into them. If/when BTC is really needed, the ETF version that has been rehypothecated will be resolved by paying you have in USD. If you have actual BTC they can't do that to you ..

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. experienced significant outflows of $1.49 billion from January 26 to 30, 2026, marking one of their worst weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone accounted for $947.2 million in redemptions, equivalent to 11,170 BTC sold. Ethereum ETFs also saw $327 million in outflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA ETF losing $264 million. The sell-off was driven by Bitcoin falling below $85,000, market volatility, and institutional investors reducing exposure to risky assets. This trend raises concerns about the resilience of ETF structures under prolonged pressure. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Every_Hunt_160

Seems like the ETF was started so that the institutions could get easy access to exit liquidity to unload their Bitcoins

Starkey18

There will be a heavy heavy resistance at that 40-45k mark. That was the ETF creation point. I don’t think it goes under that.

Donut_LordO

I guess it depends on if you believe BTC is the future. I’m sure many people thought that BlackBerry was the uncontested king of smartphones and was the future, and then it died all the way to zero, and Apple became king. I don’t blindly believe that BTC will be the future currency of the world. It is speculative, and everything would have to fall perfectly into place for it to replace fiat. I still own BTC, prob because I like to gamble. For retirement, better stick to dividend paying ETF’s

Geo_Mostovoi

There’s a lot of misinformation in the idea that Bitcoin can just magically go to $0 because it’s “only belief.” For BTC to hit zero, every single person, miner, developer, institution, and ETF would have to abandon it — not just bearish sentiment. That’s an insanely high bar. Plus, BTC isn’t pure vapor — it provides real technical utility (permissionless settlement, censorship resistance, global transfers), which means it can be used even if markets aren’t euphoric. Institutional involvement also puts a structural floor under the narrative, even if prices are volatile. Traditional finance is already embedded in BTC ownership via regulated products: • BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF together hold well over a million BTC in U.S. spot ETFs, with BlackRock alone holding the largest share (~748,000 BTC and Fidelity ~200,000 BTC) — a significant institutional accumulation backed by real money on behalf of investors.  Those aren’t just Twitter bulls — those are regulated asset managers running ETFs for pensions, endowments, wealth clients, and institutions. That doesn’t guarantee BTC goes up, but it absolutely weakens the case that it can simply evaporate to zero. So while “$0 vs $100k” is a fun meme, the realistic argument isn’t that symmetric. Structural demand exists, even if the price is still sentiment-driven and leveraged. Keeping a small, measured position — like you have — is the rational take, not claiming either extreme as a certitude.

devCheckingIn

I'm not sure how it works exactly but I'm assuming those ETF outflows won't hit the market (as BTC sales) until the following day or two.

sramp17

If it seems overwhelming for you just buy a bitcoin ETF for the exposure and not needing to worry about managing your keys I hold traditional BTC and ibit on my Roth IRA

TheresNoSecondBest

Welcome aboard. We all have been where you're at right now. Read/bookmark this guide and make sure to learn along your journey. Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding garbage tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. Going DCA is probably the best approach, IMHO. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. If there's a 10% drop in the price since my last buy, I usually double my buy. This [DCA calculator](https://dca.bitnob.com/) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. Use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor) [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, etc. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

lol you might have been looking at a publishing from QTUM that said that. But it's an ETF. They're investors who said that. Look at what Google and what Willow actually said. If you look at the actual Willow roadmap, even with the most optimistic earliest just to for a useful fault-tolerant system will be in the 2030s. And that's just the first stepping stone of many stepping stone. That's not even when it can start breaking cryptography. So after the 2030s, count another 3-5 years for each step. And you're looking at a decade or two after 2030s, before the fastest most optimistic date for Willow to break a Bitcoin key. But not when that tech is even available publicly.