ETF

HatemodeNJ

Or even the last five years. They have to do back to growth that will only happen once and never again. It should of died when FTX collapsed, but people want to get rich quick and don't realize they will never see thode hyper batshit crazy growth again. I also don't think people realize, Bitcoin is more 'legitimized' than ever and has more access to the general public through ETF's and is still just not doing much. Could it hit 125 again? Maybe, but a lot of people that put in over a hundred are going to take their money back out soon as they break even. A lot of the new investors are at a loss and would the done better in almost any other investment. Why continue to take the risks. So even if it does hit 125K again, where is it gonna go from there? I personally don't see how it's gonna double triple or go even higher anytime soon without something extremely significant happening. I'm not saying you cannot make money with it though. It's not like you can't lose money in the stock market, but crypto comes with far higher risks that no longer are outweighed by the reward.

Useful-Amphibian4841

Just buy the ETF lol

Appropriate-Top-5134

Maybe AI is overhyped, but ETF flows don’t really say anything about that. The more interesting question is whether the demand is broad and sustainable—or concentrated in a few products.

Appropriate-Top-5134

A 10x in four months is possible, but definitely not something to treat as a base case. That’s a highly speculative single-stock bet, whereas ETF flows reflect broader institutional Bitcoin demand. Different risk profiles entirely.

ippleing

Blackrock's ETF holdings are balanced automatically. They're more than happy collecting custodial fees than they are gambling on speculative assets.

Levi-2018

For example, if I buy bitcoin, my taxes are 16%. It I buy the ETF, the tax is 3%

KateR_H0l1day

Blackrock is not a Company buying BTC for itself, it a holding ETF for retail, same as Fidelity, Ark, etc who have a BTC ETF. This is totally opposite to Strategy, Strive, MetaPlanet, etc. who are BTC-TC’s that buy for themselves! Therefore, your hypothesis is completely wrong, retail is getting stronger than native buyers. They (retail) like the safety of companies such as Blackrock holding their BTC for them, and are willing to pay for that privilege!! Which, also shows the status of how holding crypto is perceived, still far to many scams/frauds and opportunities to lose what you’ve worked hard to buy, including losing your seed phrases 🤷‍♀️

Suspicious-Can-7079

I'm just saying you do realize blackrock adding isn't blackrock buying btc it's their customers buying their ETF which in turn makes them purchase btc to back their etf.

Interesting_Phone_72

Idk which country you are in but I've been holding crypto ETFs in a tfsa. That way there's no tax on gains. Each share of an ETF is directly backed by x# of btc. Usually something like 0.000012BTC (which is 30$ today)

bullinside

It is really controlled by Jane Street on the backend with their control of ETF. We are at their mercy, but it is short term notice in the grand scheme of the whole economy.

Romanizer

It's adopted by Wall Street as a technology and rolled out to customers gradually, starting with ETF, followed by 23/5+ tokenized trading and blockchain-collateralized loans.

AutoModerator

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onlinemaxi

The chad emoji for Satoshi is just woww. Liked how you have focused on such small details 🫡 Since you asked for some suggestions: I see you have date ranges till 2 months. You planning to show overall BTC holders as well? One more doubt: Your stats also account for the BTC ETF buys and sells?

Hephalumpicus

You might diversify your BTC across different holdings, especially for larger amounts. Use at least two hw wallets from different companies; ledger, trezor, and bitkey. Put some in ETF's; Blackrock, Fidelity for example. Maybe some in an exchange but personally I would put exchanges and hot wallets low on my list. It's very unlikely all would be hit at once and if one gets hit, you conserve your losses and the remaining still goes to the moon, hopefully!

Alarmed_Yesterday515

Buy Bitcoin ETF so it is harder to be hacked.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

CryptoPulseOficial

Corto: es una herramienta divertida con memoria selectiva, no un oráculo. Contexto: nació en 2014 como un **meme** en Bitcoin Talk — alguien pintó bandas de colores sobre un gráfico logarítmico y les puso nombres ("¡Estás loco si vendes!", "Máximo de burbuja", etc.). Después varios la refinaron con regresión logarítmica. **Lo que sí tiene de fondo:** BTC ha crecido en escala logarítmica desde su origen, así que una regresión log "atrapa" el precio hacia el centro de las bandas razonablemente bien. **Lo que nadie te cuenta:** * Es *curve fitting*: la recalibraron después de casi cada ciclo. El arcoíris de 2017 "falló" en 2021; el de 2021 ya fue reajustado. Siempre afilan el pasado, nunca predicen el futuro. * Solo funciona mientras BTC crezca secular. Si entra en fase de madurez (tipo oro), las bandas dejan de tener sentido. * Cero fundamentos: no ve halvings, flujos de ETF, macro ni adopción. Es el precio pasado dibujado bonito. **Cómo usarla bien:** como termómetro de sentimiento, no como señal. Bandas inferiores = históricamente zona de acumulación paciente. Bandas superiores = zona donde la euforia te cobra caro. Pero ni eso es garantía: en 2021 tocar la banda roja no impidió que siguiera subiendo un buen rato después. Si tu plan es "compro en verde, vendo en rojo", funciona hasta que deja de funcionar — y nadie te avisa cuándo es ese momento. Úsala como mapa del clima, no como pronóstico.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

Working_Pick_5723

Price refusing to break while a seemingly bearish flow is hitting the market is often more interesting than the flow number itself. If sellers keep showing up and price absorbs it, somebody else is taking the other side. Reclaiming and holding 80K would make that resilience more meaningful. Moon's BTC market gives a continuous directional read but I would still watch spot structure and actual ETF flows before treating sentiment as confirmation.

Ltsmba

Ahhhh the good old days... a 9 billion dollar market cap Fast forward to this week - on 9/21/26 ETF inflows were 1 billion on that day alone.

AidenTai

Well ETF flows are important because they're the best indicator of continuous spot action. And spot is what ultimate drives price in a 'permanent' way. I think you're giving too much importance to the trigger for the rallies. Yes, they were short squeezes. But that's because positioning was too negative and the price in effect had been artificially pulled down through leverage (so the squeezes just unwound leverage and removed downwards money which hadn't been 'real' premanent sell pressure). This means that Bitcoin price shouldn't really be all that low, but whether or not price should rise much more to reflect a continued rally depends entirely on capital flows. The 'negative' macro news is one thing, but remember that we had a lot of positive equities movements and the year wasn't all negative (putting aside inflation and the war in Iran for a second). So it's not like what impacts equities has to impact Bitcoin as directly and in the exact same way. We are unlikely to rise for months if macro causes equities to descend for an extended period. But if we're only talking about some quick correction here or there, or we get some 'soft landing' with interest rates, then Bitcoin could rise on a flat or only briefly negative equities environment.

MilkNutty

This is why you buy your bitcoin with an ETF, $IBIT is king

powerbone

Institutional ETF absorption distorts historical 200DMA averages, making structural liquidity key for $BTC expansion.

Zabobo

Put it into a Bitcoin ETF

Bluejumprabbit

ETH now has spot ETF flows and a native staking yield, both new since the last cycle. Once BTC dominance cools these consolidation calls usually resolve upward, so I'd watch the flows

faisal_yk26

Fair, the ETF didn't start it. Though it was mostly since 2020, before that the correlation was close to zero. The ETF just made it tighter.

c0dyharris

Injective - INJ. ETF catalyst, pineapple financial adding $1 billion worth of real estate data on chain, supply shock, more on chain finance.

Rich_Environment2988

For this very reason, I moved half into a Bitkey wallet with their inheritance feature, 1/4 into IBIT on Fidelity, 1/4 still in my Cold Card (seed created with my dice rolls). 0% chance the Cold Card funds would be recovered, but I’d give the Bitkey a 95% + chance and IBIT ETF 100%.

panoskj

This paper says the exact opposite of what you say: "Overall, cumulative return to bitcoin during ETF non-trading hours is responsible for 95% of bitcoin price appreciation".

get_MEAN_yall

Bitcoin was strongly and positively correlated with the Nasdaq for it's entire existence, long before the ETF.

TheRadishBros

Compare ETF inflow chart to BTC chart

faisal_yk26

Right. Satoshi separated money from the state, then Wall Street wrapped it in an ETF and plugged it straight back into the bond market.

TheresNoSecondBest

I would personally avoid go mining, buying bitcoin directly is IMHO more profitable. Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

idekwutp

Probably just transfer to a CEX tbh. As bad as they are, a place like coinbase would be totally fine to transfer to for a day. People blow the whole CEX thing out of proportion, the industry has really matured. With that being said nothing should be on them long term, if you’re gonna give your custody to someone else just use an ETF

bestjaegerpilot

you have to be your own bank --- meaning you needed to have setup some kind of inheritance scheme OR just buy the bitcoin ETF

Right-Head5861

Sell the BTC, buy BTC ETF. Give her log-in details to your trading account.

zachmoe

Bro, just get the ETF.

yapy_yes

It's an ETF, not a coin, so you're buying shares of the futures contracts held by BlackRock, not the actual Bitcoin directly.

Friendofducks

I wrote an entire business plan on this very problem, market changed 2 years ago and became difficult to get interest again. Most folks use ETF now so the problem while real, seems limited. Open to challenges on that

was526

I sat on the sidelines for a long time because of the "not your keys not your coin" people. They always want to jump to the worst case scenario that ETFs are going to eventually lose access to their Bitcoin. ETFs are good for bringing more people into the space. I currently trust a large brokerage more than I trust my self to not lose my Bitcoin. I'm sure some of those people out there that lost their seed phrase wish they could've just put it into an ETF.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

FreshMistletoe

And the ETF will be sued and someone like Fidelity can easily cover it.

oneawesomewave

...until the Bitcoin covering the ETF are mismanaged and lost like MtGox. Will happen at some point

CodsterTX

I feel safer splitting between 2 ETF's than managing it myself with hacking risks.

bbatardo

I would argue that it offers the best of both worlds. People can use Bitcoin as it was intended and if people don't want to, there are ETF's. My perspective is I don't want to manage my own wallet/keys, but I believe in Bitcoin's success, so get exposure through ETF's.

VettaQ

The indicators with the most consistent tracking record are the boring ones: DXY, US 10y real yields, and a global liquidity aggregate (M2 or central bank balance sheets). Stablecoin supply is the endogenous one worth adding - it measures dry powder actually inside the crypto system rather than conditions outside it. The trap is treating any single correlation as structural. BTC's correlation to Nasdaq has swung between roughly 0 and 0.6 depending on the window and the regime - risk-on/risk-off phases tighten it, crypto-native cycles (halvings, ETF flows, exchange events) loosen it. A fixed "BTC follows X" rule breaks exactly when you size up on it. What worked for me: pick 2-3 indicators, fit the relationship on a rolling window, and treat the current beta as a regime reading rather than a law. When the rolling correlation snaps back toward zero, macro stops being the driver and positioning or on-chain flows take over - that regime switch is usually the more useful information.

IHateCreatingSNs

Me, I'm the idiot. I was really just intending to sell from one Bitcoin ETF and buy a different one. But I got greedy and thought "I'll wait a couple weeks and buy in for cheaper......"fml

GrokM14232

$82K tells me less than what happens to real yields and the dollar over the next few Fed meetings. BTC can clear every price level on that list and still get hit if rate expectations reprice higher and liquidity tightens. Fwiw, I’d watch spot ETF flows alongside Treasury yields before calling the bear dead.

No-Masterpiece2246

DeFi on the rebound. UNI ETF launch. Preparing for a Dem victory and crackdown in 2028. Elizabeth Warren will likely be running the SEC at that point. Trump will get shat upon and possibly charged with fraud. Crypto will be hurt during this crackdown but volume will shift to DeFi.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

Brilliant_Error5370

But what do you do when you take profits? My approach is to reinvest those profits into other income-generating assets, especially assets that can provide cash flow on a daily, weekly, bi-monthly, or monthly basis. These income streams can come from dividends, ETF and fund distributions, crypto staking, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, and real estate rentals. My goal is to continuously expand and diversify my income sources rather than letting profits sit idle. Currently, I'm also exploring the next evolution of investing through tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). I find it fascinating how technologies such as blockchain can provide access to fractional ownership of income-producing assets, potentially creating new opportunities for both growth and passive income. For me, investing isn't just about growing capital. It's about building multiple streams of income that work together to create long-term wealth and financial freedom.

giospez

Holding an ETF for a long time is a sure way to lose money. ETF's have managing teams that take percentages of the holdings to pay themselves. So, if the benchmark stays the same forever, the ETF will eventually go to almost zero. Reverse and leveraged ETF's are even worse. I would recommend researching more sensible strategies to hold value over extended periods. And no, don't ask me, I'm not gonna tell you what to do with your money

AutoModerator

Post is by: gareth789 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wndy86/is_tokenized_gold_actually_better_than_a_gold_etf/ Tokenized commodities are now worth nearly $5 billion, with gold making up most of the market. A gold token can move between wallets and trade at any time. An ETF has deeper liquidity and clearer investor protection. Which would you rather hold? [https://app.rwa-xyz.com/commodities](https://app.rwa-xyz.com/commodities) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Any_Ad_4987

I would not have bought ETF. I would’ve bought bitcoin directly and put it in cold storage. You’re buying an ETF you’re not even buying bitcoin. If you buy a **Bitcoin ETF**, you generally are **not buying Bitcoin directly into your own wallet**. You’re buying **shares of a fund that represents an interest in Bitcoin exposure**.

spid3rfly

I think the crazier thing is you (hopefully) have that much conviction to throw that much money in but with that conviction, why not buy spot? ETFs aren't a bad thing but I do wonder. If we ever see a spot price of millions of dollars, I wonder how the ETFs will adjust. I think there was a lot of chatter when the ETFs launched and I'm sure someone has done the math on how much a share of the ETF goes up in relation to the spot price... but I'm too lazy to go looking.

omg_its_dan

There are pros and cons. Not everyone wants to deal with self custody especially after the cold card incident. Unless shit really hits the fan he will still get the same exposure to the price appreciation holding the ETF.

Tall-Ad1293

Spot on. Forced buying from liquidations clears order books temporarily, but once the squeeze chain exhausts itself, you need real spot/ETF demand to hold those new highs.

Cryptomuscom

Who cares about ETF inflows when bears are already liquidated

AndreaFPisacane

Several reasons, improved liquidity by the US treasury, massive ETF flow, short squeeze and derivatives liquidations, regulatory optimism, weaker dollar, and obviously technical breakout

sQtWLgK

ETF though, so it's probably just fake, paper BTC and not the real deal

Sea-Development-8046

Because with actual $BTC we could ask for proof, which he could easily provide. With an ETF, it's easy to fake. Dude is full of shit.

DragonfruitEasy61

Why ETF and not just Btc?

azdcaz

Definitely AI. Anyways, it’s hard to say there’s no spot demand and it’s purely squeeze driven when the bitcoin ETF’s brought in 1B of inflows today.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1wn1lgy/the_fed_hiked_rates_and_bitcoin_ran_from_75k_to/ The Fed raised rates. Not held, not cut. Raised, for the first time in years, into a slowing economy. Textbook says risk assets bleed when that happens because safe Treasury yields get more attractive and money leaves anything volatile that pays nothing. [Bitcoin went from the mid-$75,000s to over $84,000. $260 million in shorts got liquidated. Analysts are now calling the bear market over](https://news.bitcoin.com/market-updates/bitcoin-price-crosses-84000-as-analysts-declare-bear-market-over/). The single most-repeated bearish setup of the year fired, and the market did the opposite of what the textbook promised. The hike was fully priced before it happened. CME had a 90% chance of higher rates baked in for weeks. By the time the Fed actually moved, every seller who was going to sell the hike had already sold. The event arrived and there was nothing left to unwind, so the shorts stacked on top of the "obvious" bearish trade became fuel instead. That's the $260M liquidation. ETF inflows ran strong through the entire rate scare, IBIT alone pulling billions while everyone argued about basis points. Raoul Pal's framing is the one that fits the tape: rates breaking higher signals fiscal dominance, governments so deep in debt they can't control long-term yields, and that environment is the whole reason a fixed-supply asset exists. The other read is simpler and worth respecting: this is a leveraged short squeeze on thin conviction, not real spot demand, and it fades the moment the liquidation fuel runs out. The Coinbase Premium going negative even as BTC tapped $84K says US spot buyers aren't the ones driving this, which is exactly what you'd expect from a squeeze rather than a durable bid. Both can't hold for long. Either the hike proved crypto has decoupled from Fed policy and $84K is the start of the next leg, or it's a squeeze that unwinds and drags back toward $80K once the shorts are cleared. The negative Coinbase Premium is the tell I'd watch. If US spot demand doesn't show up to confirm this move, the squeeze crowd is right. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

OVGeest

Good call but why ETF?

crispysockz

Can you sell covered calls on an ETF for passive income?

Relevant_Fox_9708

Yes this December just 2 contracts at 29$ and 30$ (grayscales mini bitcoin ETF) I have margin but it’s only about 10% of a diversified portfolio so not a concern

just-a-folder

Buying major dips takes serious discipline when market fear runs highest. Spotting bottom entry points around sixty thousand delivers huge long-term confidence. Strategic ETF allocation makes holding through volatile crypto cycles much easier.

salazarawareness

This is my third cycle too. This exactly time in the cycle going back to the two others were NEVER like this. A 20% crash in my opinion is far too little. We are far too overvalued far too quickly. The ETF inflows and outflows strike me as... manipulative in a different way than previously seen. I've been a bear since November of last year, I don't expect to fully change until late October to early November.

Backrus

Yeah, calling for blue skies ahead at pico top of 2021, so good. Not to mention having close to 0 alts that cycle. His only good call was being BTC heavy into ETF era and that's about it (and even that was quite a lucky call because nobody could predict that IBIT options would kill vol to the point that GVZ flipped BVIV early this year, and BTC would have vol like Google while offering no additional upside and much more downside). Keep in mind that he doesn't trade but has been living off subscriptions since he wasn't balding that much lol So him being right or wrong is a blow to his ego, not to his net worth.

Dense-Permission8346

No liquidity injection? **\~$2.3B increase in stablecoin supply** **Positive Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF net flows** **Renewed institutional/retail inflows into Bitcoin** This isn’t a fakeout, the bottom was in weeks ago when we were at $60k which I tried pointing out only to be scoffed at. Yes we will have ranges playing out but it’s up from here, but “here” was about a month ago.

BigvalBROski

Glad I put $54k into the ETF at $64k!!!!!!

mrtrollmaster

I lump summed into BTC for the first time in my life at $60k. I’ve never understood the personal storage and security side well enough to jump in, but I bought in through an ETF in July cause I liked the $60 price point.

yefuck

There’s crypto IRA’s on the market now just FYI. If lazy and don’t want to go that far just go MSTR or ASST or any of the ETF proxies but I’d rather a DAT with no expense ratio and sats per share increasing not dwindling down.

Jenn2895

I would do $75 $Btc, $75 $Eth, $150 $Link & $100 in an ETF like $VOO

BroadRecipe7225

Put it into an ETF and profit without worrys!

MoccaLG

Step 1.) Everytime when BTC gets a dropdown - Buy some. 2.) But with 400 right now, ETF - world and wait for the tech stock to crash than buy em

TheresNoSecondBest

We all are "normal" people around here, mate. Some more then others. Perhaps you have cashapp too. That's IMHO a better option. There's also Strike, mentioned in the comments. Conbase and Kraken might be overwhelming. Talking about overwhelming, have a look at this guide: Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

tobypassquarant

Sell. Sell. Sell. Get rid of it. Sell it all. If you want BTC, buy the ETF. But do not hold any bitcoin. Or crypto. Don't. They're onto you. And they WILL lock you down and DESTROY YOUR SOUL. THE MIGHTY, GREAT, EVIL OVERLORDS COMMAND YOU TO SELL!!!!

thetimsterr

I used to have half in ETF and half cold wallet, but after the Coldcard debaco, I'm now half exchange and half ETF. If it weren't for tax implications of selling on the exchange, I'd be 100% in ETF. The self-custody thing is cool and all, but Coldcard really soured me on it. I'd rather offload that risk for the small fee that an ETF charges.

ipalvr

I wish I could convert to an ETF like the “Authorized Participants” and avoid capital gains.

csever31

I used to keep it all on a hardware wallet, but I moved everything to ETF because of my wife and kids.

sylsau

**They didn’t ban Bitcoin. That wo**uld have been too loud. Instead, they did something much worse: they quietly hijacked the exits. For 15 years, we’ve been told that crypto is the ultimate "permissionless" money. Un-censorable. Un-freezable. But while everyone was distracted by ETF approvals and bull market charts, Washington built a silent, permanent kill switch for the entire industry. * $475M frozen by a private stablecoin company without a single court order. * An entire nation's digital asset sector blacklisted by one unelected official's pen stroke. * Software developers treated like enemy combatants simply for writing open-source code. They used the sanctions war on Iran as the perfect Trojan horse to test the machinery. Nobody objected, because the target was a pariah state. But the beta test is over, the precedents are set, and the weapon they built was filed away for immediate reuse. **If you still think your Bitcoin is untouchable, you are missing the biggest heist in modern financial history. The trap has already snapped shut.**

Electrical_Chard3255

Not being defensive we are talking about two different things, So what I have built is for a crytpo wallet not an ETF, and everything else is simple, not sure if you looked at the page and the documentation, but an heir has everything they need when they need it, the two halves, and a bit of paper. I give my three sons a blue half each, my solicitor gets the red half, as do I, and possibly a trusted friend, who has no idea what it is, or its stored on a dead mans switch, or in a safety deposit box. I do get your point about ETF's, but not everybody wants an ETF, some countries dont support them, the good lawyer is for both cases, and the saved time is 45 minutes of creating and splitting a seed. Which you control all the way. Its just another string to a bow

TakingChances01

It kind of is though. No need to be so defensive. ETF’s are an easy process for an heir, and probably a good option for many that may otherwise lose their coin via scams, compromised seed phrases, software exploits. Etc.

Abject-Stretch-1187

Dude responded like he knew wtf he was talking about lol These are the bears we're dealing with. Imagine thinking ETF holders give a shit about a final bottom especially when the asset ETF holders want to buy is already 50% down from ATH. Retail investors can sometimes be a special type of stupid, they've grown accustomed to massive drops that they forget to realize when they're being overly greedy. They forget to factor in landscape changes like ETF buyers buying at a 50% discount while them(the retail investors) naively assume that the cycle theory will hold just for them like they genuinely believe they solely have control over BTC's price movement.

Cautious-Lecture-858

It’s mind blowing to me why would anyone hold actual tokens instead of an ETF derivative from a reputable financial institution.

CryptoDeepDive

If you don't know wtf you are doing, just buy and hold Bitcoin or Eth on an exchange or an ETF. Ffa

AutoModerator

Post is by: T_sauce9112 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wkqzuq/ive_been_trying_to_break_my_btc_thesis_since/ Since apparently using AI for research means you just typed “is BTC going down?” into ChatGPT and copied the answer This comes as result of being mocked and ridiculed and taken down for my methods, so here is the complete break down. This analysis didn't start yesterday. I've been building it since August. At this point I've probably used around 250 prompts researching it, questioning it, changing it and trying to break it. It originally started with me questioning whether the bottom was actually in and whether everyone calling for straight up was getting ahead of themselves. From there it turned into looking at the 4 year cycle, previous BTC corrections, left/right translated cycles, Elliott structure, RSI divergences across multiple timeframes, moving averages, Bollinger bands, volume, support/resistance and what previous BTC bottoms actually looked like. Then I started tying macro into it. Fed policy, rate expectations, 2Y/10Y yields, inflation, jobs, oil, diesel/crack spreads, Japan/BOJ and the carry trade, VIX, credit spreads and what normally starts breaking BEFORE risk assets really get hit. Then ETFs and positioning. ETF inflows/outflows, OI, funding, longs vs shorts, liquidation levels, CME gaps, Coinbase premium, spot vs perp activity, CVD, whale activity and on-chain buying/selling. I wasn't just asking AI to prove me right either. A huge amount of the prompts were basically me saying attack this, find out why I'm wrong, find the bullish argument, look for something we're missing, compare it to previous cycles, check another market, check another timeframe, rerun the numbers. That's how the thesis kept evolving. And that's exactly why I started questioning this latest giant green candle. BTC broke down to around 74.8k and instead of continuing lower it completely reversed and eventually ripped from around 77k to 81k+. So instead of saying “well I'm bearish so the pump must be fake,” we dug into what actually happened. Around $178M in BTC shorts got liquidated compared to only around $8M in longs. One of the biggest hours had roughly $171M in liquidations with around 95% being shorts. Futures OI jumped from around $51.2B to $56.4B in a day. Large Binance perp trades showed around $5.71B aggressive buying vs $5.15B selling. Coinbase premium was negative around -9.5bps while offshore derivatives were heavily involved. And BTC basically ran through liquidation levels from 78k, 79k, 80k and into 81k before stopping right under the same 82k area we've been watching. Then volume dried up. That doesn't prove manipulation. I can't tell you who pressed the first buy button or what their intentions were. But it definitely gives me a reason to question everyone looking at one giant green candle and automatically calling it organic bullish demand. That's how I've been using AI. Not “tell me what to think.” More like having a research assistant that I can ask 200 follow up questions, make it check another market, AT LIGHTNING SPEED, attack my argument, compare historical data, look underneath price action and then change the thesis when something doesn't make sense. If you disagree with the analysis that's perfectly fine. Give me the data and I'll look at it. But “you used AI” isn't a counterargument. TLDR: What's actually on the table now? 82-85k is still the major resistance area I've been watching. If BTC rejects up here and loses 80k, then 78k/77k, I'm watching 75k again. But another wick to 74-75k isn't enough anymore. We've already seen BTC do that and rip all the way back. For the real bearish confirmation I want to see BTC break 74-75k, fail to reclaim it and actually ACCEPT below it. Then I'm looking at 72k-70k, and if 70k fails the deeper target is still 65-68k. The other side is simple too. If BTC breaks through 82-85k, holds it, retests it and buyers actually defend it as support, then my bearish thesis is in trouble. Sustained acceptance above 85k and I have to admit the setup I was looking for didn't happen. Until one of those things happens I think BTC is basically fighting inside a giant 75k to 82-85k range. I'm not pretending I know which side wins. I'm using every tool available to me to figure it out before everyone else does. Thats what the institutions do... *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

T_sauce9112

Respectfully resident dimwitted. U would can't even fathoms how my promts going my LLMs. Ur head would explode. Hers an example hey chat bot howamy promtd did I use to gather this information in this anaylsis? This wasn't one AI prompt lol. This was built over several weeks and roughly 200 prompts. We started with a simple 70k retracement thesis, then stress tested it against TA, RSI divergences, volume, OI/liquidations, ETF/on-chain flows, rates, credit, oil, Fed/BOJ policy and macro data. We constantly looked for evidence that could invalidate the thesis, challenged our own assumptions and adjusted probabilities as new data came in instead of just looking for reasons to confirm it. 🤡 ass...

Legitimate_Cry_5194

They might come from an alien civilization, from ETF's, from spot, from short liquidations, the only thing certain is that there are more buyers than sellers.

neo-caridina

Pushed by VCs, ETF introduction last month, Bitcoiners diversifity for quantum and privacy woes but still want a hard cap with similar supply I guess. Zcash has a checkered past with original trusted setup, dev tax, not-by-default privacy, recent inflation bug, and murky ties to US and Israeli governments.

creative_usr_name

Google inactive account manager as my "deadmans switch". Provides the info that my heir doesn't already have along with instructions. Or you could just convert to ETF and then inheritance is easy.

AutoModerator

Post is by: No1worldchamp and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/litecoin/comments/1wkdfn2/could_litecoin_replicate_a_similar_move_to_zcash/ **I have just been looking into this and going through Ai also to see what similarities Litecoin has to Zcash.** **Strong similarities between LTC now and ZEC before it started to move.** **Both are old, established proof-of-work cryptocurrencies.** Zcash launched in 2016; Litecoin goes back to 2011. Neither needed to prove it could survive an entire crypto cycle. **Both spent years far below previous highs.** LTC is currently around **$58.84**, roughly **86% below its $410.26 ATH**. **ZEC was similarly neglected immediately before its move.** It was about **$74 on 30 September 2025** before reaching approximately **$734 on 7 November** — nearly a **10× move in roughly six weeks**. **Both have fixed maximum supplies.** Litecoin’s maximum is **84m LTC**; approximately **77.6m are already circulating**, so more than 92% of the eventual maximum supply already exists. **Both use declining PoW issuance.** ZEC’s November 2024 halving reduced issuance before its enormous 2025 move; Coinbase specifically identified lower issuance as one of ZEC’s supportive structural factors. **Litecoin has the same type of future supply event approaching.** Its next halving will reduce its block reward again in 2027. That’s potentially important if demand increases at approximately the same time. **Both have privacy functionality.** Privacy was central to ZEC’s repricing. Litecoin isn’t primarily a privacy coin, but MWEB gives it optional confidential transaction functionality. The narrative isn’t remotely as powerful yet, but the underlying feature exists. **Both can benefit from “old coin rediscovery.”** CoinDesk specifically described the 2025 privacy move as capital rotating back toward themes associated with the 2017–18 era. **LTC already has very broad liquidity/exchange availability.** That’s important because if interest suddenly returns, investors don’t have to wait for major exchanges to list it. **LTC now has something ZEC didn’t have in exactly the same form: a US spot ETF.** Canary’s spot Litecoin ETF, LTCC, began trading on Nasdaq in October 2025 and physically holds LTC. With Litecoins market cap currently sat at only 4.5Bn it looks interesting to me along with the 2027 halving on the way. This is NFA and just a comparison of the two before Zcash moved. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

RelievedFrigate

Man, this is the take I keep coming back to. Everyone's hunting for the one killer app or the one ETF that flips the switch, but it might just be a slow, boring grind over a decade. Adoption probably looks more like Venmo integrating it than some flashy new chain dropping.

TheresNoSecondBest

Also, read this, mate. Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

Coininator

So why ETF demand then?

colemusic1

There has been a significant amount of things that have changed. IBIT is genuinely no speculative BTC ETF anymore. It’s got $100B+ in assets, and we have live data now that is showing us how much inflows/outflows is happening intraday. And that’s a huge deal. And that doesn’t mean cycles don’t matter, they still do. But what it does mean is we don’t have any data on how cycles can/will run when this has only been happening since 2024. ETHA (ETH ETF) is also attracting a significant amount more inflows lately, and they even have ZEC on there now too. This is a big deal for BTC specifically though because it exposes BTC to millions of more investors who otherwise don’t own a crypto exchange account and maybe don’t want to. They simply just login to their brokerage platform, buy some IBIT and call it a day. If you want to know how significant this genuinely is right now from live readings of the top 5 most actively traded stocks / ETF’s: • IBIT (spot BTC) • BITO (BTC futures) • NVDA • INTC • SPCX