ETF

Hitachi22

It's looking more and more like a failed experiment that never gained adoption. It was a great idea, having a global peer to peer digital currency but it's accepted at even less places now than in 2017. Early adopters were the only ones that got rich. Now it's just another asset that wall Street can manipulate and milk the ETF fees for all eternity.

RefrigeratorOwn1224

I'm buying ETF shares. I expect BTC to hit $50,000.

_Panda

The reason for the AP structure is that it makes them much more tax efficient. In a mutual fund structure (what you imagine), every time the mutual fund has to sell assets to redeem customers wanting to cash out shares it generates taxable events that affect all fund holders even if they themselves did not cash anything out. The ETF structure isolates so that you are only exposed to taxable events when you sell your own shares. Of course it means that APs get a small payout, but that is part of the expense ratio and most passive ETFs have very low overall expenses. Of course buying and holding the base assets for yourself means no expense ratios to worry about, but there are plenty of other responsibilities and risks that entails.

AstroRoverToday

You can't lose what you don't have. If you only invest in an ETF you aren't actually buying bitcoin. Your title suggests you want to own BTC. If that's what you want, then buy bitcoin. Once you own it, and you're careful with how you store it, you won't lose it.

word-dragon

Technically, you don’t own bitcoin, but a line on the ETF spreadsheet. If it’s in an IRA or a (non-solo) 401K, you’re probably stuck with the ETF.

stanktoedjoe

What ETF are buying?

Romanizer

That's exactly the point of the video. The IGV ETF that tracks tech stock correlates with Bitcoin even more. Traders still think Bitcoin is a tech stock. 4 year cycles are business cycles and coincide with liquidity regimes.

OwnHelicopter7255

Yep it’s the same it’s going down your right. But here’s the big difference, the more people that have been burned by bitcoin means less new capital that want to enter. It’s easier to attract suckers when those fools haven’t been burned already. Now what makes this also different is there’s no more new whale to bring in fresh capital, who can come in now, government? Already done, ETF’s? Done, stocks ? Done? Where’s the new cash coming from?

ILETOJUL

2026 Current Market outlook. The crypto market has entered a clear bear phase, down 40–50% from its October 2025 peak. Analysts expect weakness or sideways movement for another 3–8 months, with a possible bottom by mid to late 2026. A modest recovery could follow in the second half of the year as ETF inflows return and interest rate uncertainty fades. Some suggest the next uptrend will align with improving global liquidity rather than the traditional halving cycle timeline.

OwnHelicopter7255

Stop calling it a “crypto winter” Call it what it is, bear market and trust me this time you’ll lose big money holding in. If the US government, Strategy, ETF’s and so forth can’t hold its price then you’re fucked. This isn’t like “all the other crashes” this is a knife dropping

Vegetable-Rabbit7503

If you want to fight the corrupt system the only way is self custody, ETF holders or exchange users are not part of the revolution.

rgnet1

The answer is that spot ETFs sit in the middle. They're not derivatives. They must be settled, so actual bitcoin must move around as the shares are bought and sold. But it doesn't happen as quickly as bitcoin changing owners on exchanges, so it does impact liquidity. And low liquidity is not a derivatives friend. Reading about ETFs, by the way, I find it to be its own crazy system. You imagine that when customers buy shares in a spot ETF, the fund manager goes out and buys bitcoin. No. There are "Authorized Participants" (banks) that buy bitcoin, give it to ETF custodian, get shares for it, and THEN sells those shares on the market that you or I would purchase. Same in reverse. Bank redeems shares, get the bitcoin, then sells it in the market. The AP makes money on arbitrage. Sound like yet another scam to make banks money when people could just directly buy/sell themselves?

TheresNoSecondBest

>but I am suspicious about whether it can survive once the cost of mining becomes unprofitable, and once new coins effectively run out. This has been already explained in many comments. Simply, unprofitable mining makes mining for others more profitable. >I am considering dipping some baby-money into Bitcoin ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding garbage tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. Going DCA is probably the best approach, IMHO. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. If there's a 10% drop in the price since my last buy, I usually double my buy. This [DCA calculator](https://dca.bitnob.com/) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. Use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor) [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, etc. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

ExactArugula6821

would be icing on the cake if this is after 401ks allowed ETF buys

s1cWid1T

Just look away otherwise you will be sick to your stomach wishing you sold the top just like every draw down ever. Review the power law, review all the positives. Remember this is blackrocks new bell cow and top earning ETF, they will not let it die unless they have to. Remember we have to utilize stablecoins to refinance our debt Citibank, Charles Schwab etc are new entrants More banks to come. There is a lot but you must keep understand it is a risk asset and not widely used as collateral in credit products. There are some lenders that are utilizing btc in real estate loans etc so it’s still finding its place in the traditional finance system for now it is just a volatility instrument. Hopefully it gets adopted, I imagine it will first through stablecoins and tether buying more and more for their reserves along with whatever happens to DATs. The world isn’t quite ready for bitcoin but soon enough it will be. Likely commoners really will not be using it at scale but some will. Most people got burned in ftx but they ultimately are not folks that had a pot to piss in for investments anyway and now dislike crypto because they lost gambling as they never invested a day on their lives and had never lived through volatility. Ramble ramble.

uncapchad

Legislation and Institutions have worked to keep retail away. Institutions couldn't get involved until there was legal clarity and they were also concerned about volatility. Now Institutions have stripped the volatility which makes it boring. The other issue is also legislation - from intensifying AML enforcement the world-over to blocking certain domains/entities operating outside of enforcement. In India for e.g. they got ISPs to block domains. Taxation & surveillance has been another avenue to frighten off retail - being kicked off exchanges, funds frozen etc. Add in a few rug pulls, hacks and of course the bull run that never came and yeah, retail just don't see the point. They'll buy an ETF or add a MSTR/STRF/STRC to a portfolio but the heady days of easily making bank are over.

GPThought

67k and the fear index is screaming. meanwhile ETF holders havent sold. retail panics, institutions accumulate. same story every dip

Kalelofindiana

Broad market ETF? Example please 🙏

No-Permit8369

Open a fidelity account, drop 20k into the contra fund and 10k into their bitcoin ETF. I’d spread it out too.

biba8163

> Crypto will pump with the Clarity Act, Genius Act... Reminder of the ETF hopium that would pump various cryptos. Desperate bagholders are being strung along again. It's always bait and switch from the old narrative to the new as the old narrative fizzles out. - ETH is down 🔻-42% since its first ETF launch in July 2024 - XRP is down 🔻-42% since its first ETF launch in November 2025 - LINK is down 🔻-30% since its first ETF launch in December 2025 - HBAR is down 🔻-52% since its first ETF launch in October 2025 - SOL is down 🔻-58% since its first ETF launch in October 2025 - LTC is down 🔻-52% since its first ETF launch in October 2025

biba8163

> Crypto will pump with the Clarity Act, Genius Act, the fight between banks and crypto exchanges for yield on stablecoins Who cares? None of this matters to crypto prices. Reminder of the ETF hopium that would pump various cryptos. Desperate bagholders are being strung along again. It's always bait and switch from the old narrative to the new as the old narrative fizzles out. - ETH is down 🔻-42% since its first ETF launch in July 2024 - XRP is down 🔻-42% since its first ETF launch in November 2025 - LINK is down 🔻-30% since its first ETF launch in December 2025 - HBAR is down 🔻-52% since its first ETF launch in October 2025 - SOL is down 🔻-58% since its first ETF launch in October 2025 - LTC is down 🔻-52% since its first ETF launch in October 2025

JumpedUpPantryBoyy

This is the smart thing to do IMO. In a S&P500, Total Market or All-World ETF, something like that.

hit_that_snare

Don’t put it all in BTC. I would recommend putting 20k into an all-world ETF like VWCE and the rest in BTC. Hedge the risk and diversify.

ChartSage

Fear index at 9 and we're seeing massive ETF inflows.

Last-Reception-2296

the digital gold narrative is having a bit of an identity crisis lately lol. it is interesting to see actual gold hitting records while BTC is behaving more like a high-beta tech stock. i honestly stopped trying to guess the reason why behind the price action because internet theories are just noise. my advice is to try some tools that track real-time institutional fund flows. it will help you see if the big players are actually exiting or just rebalancing so you dont end up as the exit liquidity. are you focusing on the total AUM movement or just the specific spot ETF outflows?

numbersev

There was a controversy last year between BlackRock and Coinbase over paper Bitcoin. Experts Weigh In on Coinbase-BlackRock “Paper Bitcoin” Spot ETF Rumors https://share.google/zkahPk23Or8TvhKVo

magus-21

Physical gold sucks. Just get a gold ETF.

ruibranco

saying the quiet part out loud — MSTR stopped being a software company years ago and is now a leveraged Bitcoin ETF with extra steps. the "we'll just refinance" framing only works as long as someone is willing to keep lending against BTC collateral that just dropped 90%.

luke_3007

I started investing in Bitcoin in August. I was relatively high at the all-time high. After the crash, I felt very insecure. I couldn't take my eyes off the chart, even though it was just standard DCA. But then I delved deeper into the subject and learned so much more about investing. I increased my savings rate and made several large individual purchases, so my average buy-in has dropped so drastically that if Bitcoin rises again, I'll already be in profit. For the last two or three months, I haven't even looked at the chart and have just let my position run, hoping that Bitcoin will drop a bit before my savings plan is executed, further improving my buy-in and allowing me to gather even more data. So, in the roughly eight months since I started investing in Bitcoin, I've learned more about investing than I did in two years as an ETF investor. ... It was truly amazing to understand how to properly read a chart like that. I also traded Bitcoin occasionally, which I wouldn't recommend to anyone. I made three good trades and then lost everything in one. I wouldn't recommend it to anyone. It's better to buy stats instead of trying to make more money with leverage. I will certainly never sell Bitcoin!

devCheckingIn

If I could at least stake my ETH ETF and make a little pittance on that... 😩

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Bitcoin experienced a massive crash, dropping nearly $15,000 in 24 hours, with theories pointing to high-leverage bets by Hong Kong hedge funds. These funds reportedly used risky strategies involving Bitcoin ETF options and the Yen carry trade, which backfired due to slumping Bitcoin prices, rising financing costs, and losses in the silver market. This led to forced liquidations and a market sell-off. While other factors like AI-related sell-offs and regulatory uncertainty may have contributed, the hedge fund theory remains the most compelling explanation. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Cryptotiptoe21

When the first gold ETF was made gold went on a 10yr bull run...

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Substantial_Ad_2116

Yeah especially now that a huge chunk of retail is holding ETF exposure rather than actual sats, there is even less impact even if everyone holding in exchanges decided to self-custody.

Velvet_Samurai

Not sure what coins we're talking about, but I went from being up 100K to being up 20K. So obviously that sucks, but I'm not changing a thing. I'm not going crazy on purchases, but I've made a couple of small BTC purchases recently. I suggest you get into more traditional investments. Buy some ETF's. I have about 20% of my investments in crypto. I wouldn't buy too much more crypto until its way less than half of your entire portfolio.

9xD4aPHdEeb

>The S&P for example is just a mirror of the money printer. Exactly, so: maintaining purchasing power. >There will be a time in my life I will have to hand my entire wealth to my spouse and kids. Rather do it without the interference of any government. Again, sovereignty. To me, this still sounds like you don't want to pay inheritance tax. You could have the opinion that that tax is unfair and should be abolished, but at the moment it is still a law (where I live). >trust on a 3rd parties That is correct. I trust Revolut, my bank, Apple, IBKR, Vanguard, etc. >Once you put your money in a bank, its their money, not yours. No, it's my money, and some 3rd parties hold it for me, but legally it is my money. >Bitcoin is money. Many people disagree. If you buy something, you probably first convert it to USD (or another currency). Sounds more like you sell the BTC investment, similar to selling an ETF.

Low-Perspective-4258

ETF lol

DebtTop8364

Every cycle people ask the same thing: *“Is the next crypto boom coming?”* The truth is — crypto doesn’t move randomly. There are usually signals before a major run: **1. Liquidity returning to the market** When central banks slow down rate hikes or signal easing, risk assets (including crypto) tend to benefit. **2. Bitcoin dominance shifts** Historically, BTC moves first. Then profits rotate into altcoins. **3. Retail interest spikes** Search trends, social media growth, and exchange signups usually rise before parabolic moves. **4. Institutional positioning** ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and corporate adoption are big catalysts. But here’s the part most people ignore: The boom doesn’t make people rich. **Positioning before the boom does.** Most retail investors enter when headlines are euphoric. The smarter strategy is learning risk management, capital allocation, and long-term positioning early. If you're researching ways people prepare before major market cycles (not just hype-chasing), I found some structured insights here that break down different approaches: [https://inversionesaltasalejandro.com/](https://inversionesaltasalejandro.com/) Curious to hear your take — Are we early, or are we just hopeful again?

CoffeeAlternative647

>The money printer (inflation) sucks. You can keep purchasing power up by investing in a broad market index ETF. Not with the performance of Bitcoin. In ETF's specifically, winners pay for the losers. The S&P for example is just a mirror of the money printer. > Do you mean circumventing laws? >How often do you transfer your complete wealth btw? Seems like a niche. >I travel with just my phone, with a digital credit card, with all currencies. No issues. I do not mean circumvent laws. I mean soverignty. There will be a time in my life I will have to hand my entire wealth to my spouse and kids. Rather do it without the interference of any government. Again, sovereignty. Good, till your bank closes your account for no reason and you wait months for them to settle and hand you your funds. This application is full of complaints from apps like Revolut that suddenly closes their accounts and lock their funds for months. > I would rather give them my money and live (!) and get the money back from my bank via insurance. Still, you're putting way to much trust on a 3rd parties that is not certain to refund you. You pay big premiums for something that's not certain. Once you put your money in a bank, its their money, not yours. I'd rather have responsability on my money instead of hand that responsability at a cost, to some people that I do not know. > Bitcoin ETFs (e.g. IBIT) make it very easy for investors to invest in Bitcoin. If you buy IBIT you're buying an IOU that gives you exposure to Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin isn't something you invest. Bitcoin is money. You save in Bitcoin.

TheresNoSecondBest

>The money printer (inflation) sucks. You can keep purchasing power up by investing in a broad market index ETF. Not everyone can. The poorer you get, the less choices you have. The poorest cannot even open a bank account and are forced to save in cash, getting to hit the hardest. >Do you mean circumventing laws? Like the example of supporting a military of attacked country, I've linked earlier. >How often do you transfer your complete wealth btw? Seems like a niche. He's not talking about complete wealth. In the majority of cases it's about a small portion, while **knowing I can access to all of it if needed. Common people living in Ukraine can't.** >I travel with just my phone, with a digital credit card, with all currencies. No issues. There are many companies like Conbase, offering the same for bitcoin. No issues, if you're happy with someone else holding your money. >I would rather give them my money and live (!) and get the money back from my bank via insurance. The same is AGAIN, doable with bitcoin, having it in an account with a custodians. Also, once you give them your money, why would they let you live? >Bitcoin ETFs (e.g. IBIT) make it very easy for investors to invest in Bitcoin. There you have it, mate. Bitcoin at a custodian. Go nuts, if you like other people holding your money. Some of us are responsible enough to take care of our money despite the "negatives".

9xD4aPHdEeb

> Bitcoin is a monetary system outside the traditional rotten money printer system that sucks your purchasing power over time, punishing savers and rewarding spenders. Your work is rewarded with something that someone can print endlessly and effortlessly with a push of a button. The money printer (inflation) sucks. You can keep purchasing power up by investing in a broad market index ETF. > you don't need permission to access, transfer or use your wealth. Do you mean circumventing laws? How often do you transfer your complete wealth btw? Seems like a niche. I travel with just my phone, with a digital credit card, with all currencies. No issues. > Its also inconfiscable that even if someone points a gun to your head they can't access it unless they negotiate with you. They kill you, no access. We can discuss either someone is willing to die for their wealth, but thats another topic. Personally, my family can access my BTC without asking me anything, so if someone kills me to access my BTC it will be in vain for them and my family has total access to it. You can also easily use decoy wallets and hide the real cake while hand the cherry to the thief. I would rather give them my money and live (!) and get the money back from my bank via insurance. > Bitcoin is a one of a kind asset and it still is out of reach for the vast majority of people to wrap their heads around it no matter how intelligent these people are. Bitcoin ETFs (e.g. IBIT) make it very easy for investors to invest in Bitcoin.

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Relevant-Outcome3529

It's simply a speculative investment; if you invest, you should believe in it and never panic. If you want less risk, you're better off investing in an ETF.

PassengerRecent7002

This highlights the impact of Gamma Squeezes and Delta Hedging in regulated markets. Unlike native crypto perps, ETF options force Market Makers (MMs) to buy/sell the underlying ETF shares to remain neutral. When the BTC price dropped, MMs' delta exposure decreased rapidly, forcing them to dump excess IBIT shares into a thin market to stay hedged. Combined with the Yen Carry Trade unwinding (increasing borrowing costs), this created a liquidity trap. While crypto Twitter looks for on-chain whale movements, the real selling pressure originated from institutional delta-neutral rebalancing in the TradFi plumbing.

cooltone

ETF just reflect the activities of retail in their fund. MSTR and most other treasuries continue to buy and hold. Of course hedge funds will short as opportunity arises, no change here. So which institutions do you mean?

Shiriru00

Maybe I'm missing something, but if you buy an ETF that tracks the price of bitcoin, it will track the price of bitcoin. Why would they sell even if the market is down? The ETF is doing exactly what it's supposed to do...

PassengerRecent7002

The "digital gold" narrative always gets tested during these corrections. To see if it's institutional or retail selling, check Farside Investors or The Block Data. They track spot Bitcoin ETF net flows daily. For real-time updates, SoSoValue is also great. Looking at the data for early February 2026, we’ve seen significant net outflows (over $500M in some sessions), which suggests institutions are indeed de-risking or rebalancing into gold/stable assets. Retail panic usually follows these flows. It’s not just a "consolidation" when the big players are hitting the exit button; keep an eye on those daily ETF prints before making your next move.

dooosayn

I completely appreciate your strategy and conviction for btc. This guy is talking about capital ETF investments in fiat dollars.

SWT_Bobcat

Think about all the “conservative” investors out there in Bitcoin ETFs. This is not a joke….so many people putting a conservative 3% of their portfolio in Bitcoin etf in a Roth IRA thinking it’s their play money. A million dollar portfolio has 30k in BTC ETF which loses 20%…lost 6K on a million dollar portfolio and don’t even notice. There are billions of dollars out there in Bitcoin ETFs with negligible loss at all even at 50% BTC drop. I call this baked in diamond hands du to mass adoption. Large amount of small holders that just not worth fucking with to sell at a loss

GPThought

This is what mass adoption actually looks like - not fancy conferences or ETF approvals, but someone casually buying bananas with sats. Every small transaction like this normalizes Bitcoin as money, not just an asset to hodl.

Hayabusa_PT

What I keep telling my friends is, Bitcoin, stocks, ETF or whatever you want to invest in long term but don’t feel safe just DCA, you’ll not be motivated by fear or greed, if suddenly you feel like buying when the fear is spread just do an additional buy.

Putrid_Pollution3455

ETF is retirement possibly where people just throw money into it and never think again.

No_Giraffe_4647

This is the point if you have invested in a risky asset your target figure for retirement should be at least twice the one you would need on diversified ETF portfolio for instance. So instead of targeting 1 million in ETF/ mutual fund you will need 2 million worth of BTC or even more to balance that risk

GPThought

Diamond hands aren't just a meme - they're a selection mechanism. The weak hands get shaken out at every 20-30% correction, concentrating holdings among people with actual conviction. ETF holders might not understand the tech, but their behavior is indistinguishable from true believers.

Live_Jazz

I know, was being a bit facetious. I own quite a lot of FBTC in my IRAs. A lot of boomers have a lot of money in IRAs, but it’s the vehicle itself that seems to lend itself to holding. Inherently time horizon. I’d actually be curious to see ETF ownership by age bracket, now that I think about.

OkSeries5363

"lol the APs are ALL hedge funds" Nope they arent? The IBIT APs include JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and UBS. These are G SIBs global systemically important banks. Under basel III regulations these banks face a 1250% risk weight on Bitcoin. This means for every $1 of Bitcoin they hold they have to set aside $12.50 of their own cash as a penalty. It is mathematically and legally impossible for them to hold it for a few hours to see if they can make a buck. "lol these corporations have trillions" You are fundamentally confusing AUM assets under management with corporate balace sheet. BlackRock has trillions in AUM but that is other people's money they cant legally buy bitcoin with other peoples assets. A JPMorgan trading desk has a limited amount of the banks own cash. You are describing an insane business model where a bank 1. Sees the retail market panic selling Bitcoin. 2. Uses its own limited corporate cash to buy those falling shares. 3. Receives the Bitcoin and holds it while the price continues to crash. Think about that. You are arguing that the worlds smartest banks make money by catching a falling knife with their own capital. If they dont sell that Bitcoin immediately to recoup their USD, they run out of cash and their desk goes insolvent. No bank on earth stays in business by trading away liquid USD for a falling volatile asset just to see what happens. That isnt a strategy its a suicide mission. They arent speculators they are a toll bridge. They receive the Bitcoin dump it on the open market immediately to get their cash back and keep the tiny $0.01 spread. The proof is in the NAV tracking. If the APs were waiting like you suggest the ETF would be a disaster that didnt track the price.

CryptigoVespucci

I'd guess it's probably still higher than it's ever been. A bunch of people got liquidated and had to sell, but the ETF outflows actually haven't been that crazy. Pretty sure Blackrock's IBIT saw net inflows on the worst day of the sell-off.

RandomLemonHead

Where was the big dick institutional capital? ETF's are just more retailers. The big dick institutional capital is MSTR and it is becoming more flaccid by the week.

The_Bitcoin_Act

Total U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings sit around 1.27 million BTC (valued near $90 billion at prevailing prices), representing about 6% of Bitcoin's total supply.

Most_Refuse9265

Only 6.6% of Bitcoin ETF holdings have sold since ATH October 2025 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-holders-diamond-hands-160516190.html

mjs1050

I will answer myself using Gemini AI's help. I was wrong. $100 per month into Bitcoin vs $100 per month into S&P 500 ETF for last 5 years: * **Total Invested:** In both scenarios, you would have contributed a principal amount of **$6,000**. * **Dividends vs. Volatility:** While the S&P 500 provided steady growth and a consistent **1.3% - 2.0%** annual dividend yield, Bitcoin's extreme price appreciation from roughly **$35,000** in February 2021 to over **$70,000** by February 2026 drove its superior performance despite massive intermediate crashes. * **Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA):** DCA was particularly effective for Bitcoin, as it allowed you to accumulate more "sats" during the 2022-2023 "crypto winter" when prices fell below **$20,000**.

RandomLemonHead

Maybe - I'm way overweight in SPX. Looking at ETF exc North America. Or sell btc and buy back later this year. Timing the market sucks, but also if the four year cycle doesn't hold to the downside, why would it hold to the upside?

ProfessorBagholder

Bitcoin is not a company and does not have a "product". If you care about owning Bitcoin and its underlying ethos, then self-custody is the only play. >Does self custody still matter once you start using financial products Maybe you can elaborate as to what exactly you mean about using financial products. If one is getting exposure to Bitcoin via an ETF such as IBIT or FBTC, is that "using financial products"? Without more context it seems like a strange question to even ask. Whether one might opt to utilize one of those ETFs for example is not mutually exclusive to somebody else preferring to self-custody.

ifureadthisurepic

You basically don't have to worry about keeping it safe. Someone else does it for you. The downside is, if Coinbase ever gets hacked and loses their Bitcoin, your funds are gone. There's also the risk of seizure by the government down the line. But this is still fine for the majority of regular people who just want to buy Bitcoin and forget about it. You just have to understand that you do not actually control the Bitcoins that you buy when you buy the ETF, and that there is a risk of losing them by actions of a third party.

biba8163

100% confirmed in Jan. 2025 by those with common sense (like me) and many others. If you believed in Altseason you got scammed by influencers and circle jerking bagholders. > A lot of people are holding heavy Alt bags **rationalizing a huge Altseason is coming** this year. Your Alt echo chambers are telling you, it's 100% happening. **There is zero percentage chance of that happening** without another big BTC leg up so it would be wise to temper your expectations. **(January 1st 2025)** https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1hr1bgb/btc_returns_2010_2024/m4uaz4g/ > *Uhh, is it "Altcoin Season" yet?*. **(Jan. 2025)** > BTC ETFs have put a kink in the old rotation, as ETF profits go off chain into stocks, bonds, and cash. /u/watch-nerd https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1iadnpm/comment/m9aqi0q/

Ok-Sympathy9768

Yup.. I believe you are right about the 4 years cycle .. denial or conviction, call it what you want, I should have recognized the signs before it dipped below 100k… cost me well over a million in profit.. cashed out in tranches at 90k,80k,75k, and 69k(last ATH).. a majority of buys were lump sum at 3k, and 16k, with small amounts DCAd over that timeframe .. the last of my holdings, a small amount of exposure in IBIT ETF, equivalent to about 2 whole coins, is getting sold in about 5 minutes when the market opens (can’t go broke taking a profit)… good luck to everyone on their BTC journey…

Capable_Ant_291

Multiple factors; 4 year cycle, long term investors taking profit, and the big one, spot ETF BTC and futures BTC basis compressing, thus creating a less attractive position for hedge funds and large institutions arbitrageurs. What used to be a no risk high gain commodity with approx 10% annualized return is now 4% or lower, with fees and other options this is certainly not worth it for those large players. If you take a look at when BTC pumped hard, it was after BTC purchase was available with exchanges rather than buying on crypto platforms. This opened the flood gate for a lot of institutions and the spread between spot ETF and futures was way too attractive to let go.

BudgetBon

You are about to buy a 'Paper Rock' from a startup that might not exist in 2 years. Tokenized Gold is the only mature market, PAX Gold (PAXG) is the only one I would touch. It is regulated by the (Financial Services) and you can legally audit them. If you want Gold, buy PAXG. If you want Uranium or Platinum, buy a Stock Market ETF. At least the SEC ensures the physical metal actually exists.

defi_farmoor

The ETF angle is what separates this cycle from previous XRP hype. Last week XRP spot ETFs pulled $39M in net inflows while BTC ETFs bled $689M. That's institutional money making a directional bet, not retail FOMO. Add RLUSD launching in Japan via SBI this quarter, plus stablecoin regulation discussions at the White House with Ripple literally at the table, and you've got real fundamentals backing the price action. Not saying it can't dump. But the setup is genuinely different this time. The on-chain activity and institutional flows tell a different story than 2021.

defi_farmoor

Crypto doesn't care about promises from politicians. BTC dropping alongside equities tells you everything: macro still drives price short-term. Tariffs, rate uncertainty, dollar strength. None of that changed because someone signed an executive order. The interesting signal is actually in the ETF flows. XRP and SOL pulled inflows last week while BTC bled $689M. That's not retail panic. That's institutional rotation into higher-beta assets. Long-term the regulatory clarity helps, but expecting a president to pump your bags is peak cope.

f00dl3

44-48k would be enough of a pain point to force ETF hodlers to sell in fear. The real buying will start when people lose their shit

AutoModerator

Post is by: Own-Cartographer409 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qzt7zi/why_did_bitcoin_crash_etfs_options_global_macro/ Why did Bitcoin crash? Not panic. A leverage blow-up. This drop came from ETFs + options + global macro colliding. Hong Kong hedge funds loaded up on deep OTM call options on IBIT, funded by yen carry trade money, betting on a short-term BTC moon. What went wrong • BTC failed to rebound • Yen carry trade worsened → funding costs jumped • Funds also had silver exposure • Added leverage to recover losses • Margin calls hit • Forced liquidations followed • Large IBIT selling spilled into spot BTC Why no one saw it This wasn’t on-chain. It happened in spot ETFs + ETF options. Key difference vs the past CME options were cash-settled → no need to trade real BTC. ETF options are linked 1:1 to spot ETFs. The mechanical part • Deep OTM calls → low delta → MMs bought little IBIT (quiet on entry) • BTC dropped → delta → 0, gamma collapsed • MMs were stuck with excess IBIT • To stay delta-neutral, they mechanically sold into a falling market Quiet on the way up Violent on the way down Takeaway Opacity + leverage + ETF options is dangerous. This crash makes a strong case for putting ETFs and options on-chain. Just a theory, but cleaner than most narratives out there *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Low_Delivery6809

Yes they used web3, NFT and meme tokens to bring people into crypto. Then ETF. So what's next? Probably PnD.

StupidStartupExpert

Maybe I’m misunderstanding something but isn’t the whole point of these things basically just to buy bitcoin whenever buy your stock and not necessarily speculate on price? Is MSTR different from like a BTC ETF or is it just an exposure asset? It’s not like SLV stops buying silver when it goes up?

nomorelosses1

‘BTC is getting more stable with all the ETF’s and institutional buying 🤪’

Power_Drawing6025

IBIT and FBTC (ETF funds) $25K in each.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Bitcoin's recent drop to $60,000 triggered panic selling among short-term holders, with many selling at a loss. This selloff was influenced by broader market risk-off sentiment, including declines in equities and increased volatility. Key indicators such as liquidations, ETF outflows, and on-chain metrics like SOPR and supply in profit suggest a leverage reset rather than full capitulation. While forced selling has subsided, the market's recovery depends on renewed demand and stabilization of risk conditions. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

AutoModerator

Post is by: NPC_With_Agency and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qzbyl4/the_machine_economy_is_arriving_and_wall_street/ Right now, the market is obsessed with "Macro" — unemployment numbers, interest rates, and ETF inflows. They are treating crypto like just another high-beta tech stock. They are dead wrong. While everyone watches the *human* economy, a **non-human economy** is being built right under our noses. And unlike us, this new economy has no choice but to use crypto. We all know AI is blowing up. But here is the problem: **An autonomous AI Agent cannot walk into a bank and open a checking account.** It doesn’t have a driver’s license. It can’t pass a KYC check. It can’t get a credit card. So, if millions of AI agents need to buy data, pay for storage, or rent compute, what money are they going to use? They are going to use the only rails that are permissionless and programmable: **Crypto.** This isn't sci-fi for 2030. The plumbing is literally being laid right now. The "HTTP 402" (Payment Required) error code has been broken for 30 years. It is finally being fixed *right now*. * **Coinbase & Cloudflare** launched the **x402 Protocol**. * This standard allows AI agents to pay for resources (like reading a news article or calling an API) instantly, without a login or credit card. * Cloudflare is already handling **billions** of AI requests that can now be monetized this way. **T**he logistics of the payments is where the alpha is. * **For "Big" Payments:** Agents will likely use **USDC** (on Base/Solana/Ethereum) for larger settlements. * **For "Streaming" Payments:** Imagine an AI paying for electricity *by the second* or buying data *by the token*. You can't do that with a credit card (too slow) or even most L1s (gas fees). You need **Lightning** (or potentially high-throughput L1s) to stream money efficiently. Bottom line, Wall Street thinks the "AI Trade" is buying Nvidia stock. The *real* trade is buying the currency that the AI itself is going to earn and spend. We are front-running an entire new species of consumer. Let the tourists panic sell. The machines are bidding. **Discussion:** Do you see AI agents preferring Stablecoins (ease of use) or Native Assets (censorship resistance) for their economy? ... And obviously, this isn't financial advice. I'm just a dude with an opinion who is long Bitcoin and holds positions in the assets mentioned. This post is a thesis on market mechanics and technology. DYOR. I could be wrong. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

L3mmy_winx

If she doesn’t understand the technology, but wants the exposure to bitcoin price ups and downs, then she is the perfect customer for the ETF. Her ETF choices are her own, I’d simply point there and let her know it follows Bitcoin quite closely, both in bull and bear markets, but cannot be sold 24/7 currently.

No_Giraffe_4647

I put on stocks too like MSTR for instance. More seriously 90 pct of my portfolio is in ETF and stocks but here we talk crypto mostly so the overall view could be biased as I am just posting about how the other 10 percent are allocated

user_name_checks_out

In the run up to the approval of the ETFs, it seemed obvious to me that that news alone would cause the price of bitcoin to go up - nevermind the price of capital. After the ETFs went live I could not believe that the price of bitcoin still had not gone up. So to me this is one example of a case where the bitcoin market is not very efficient at pricing in upcoming events. > I'd say the first 2 years of ETF are priced in now. Well, pricing in past events, there is nothing remarkable about that. By the way I already came within $11K of winning our bet 😆

sphorx13

I think lump sum usually wins when people are referring to stocks ETF but something as highly volatile as crypto id rather DCA to find an average entry. Or 50% lump sum while we are low and leave some for additional dca.

harvested

Bit hard to price in capital from an ETF without said capital being able to enter yet. I'd say the first 2 years of ETF are priced in now.

Fun_Kangaroo512

Bitcoin has never had a guaranteed floor. BTC has dropped 70–85% multiple times after being “too important to fail.” ETFs reduce volatility over time, but they do not eliminate deep drawdowns. > “Bitcoin is staked with the US and Chinese government” This is false. Bitcoin cannot be staked (that’s Proof-of-Stake; BTC is Proof-of-Work). The US government holds BTC mainly from seizures (Silk Road etc.), not strategic staking. China officially bans Bitcoin trading and mining; it does not back or stake BTC. There is no sovereign staking or backing of Bitcoin. > “Bitcoin is backed by US Treasuries” Flatly incorrect. Bitcoin is not backed by anything, by design. Some stablecoins (USDT, USDC) hold US Treasuries — Bitcoin does not. ETFs may hold BTC custodially, but that is not “backing.” > “BlackRock and Coinbase are staked” Wrong terminology again. BlackRock’s ETF custodies Bitcoin, it doesn’t stake it. Coinbase acts as custodian, earning fees — not staking BTC. > “Bitcoin is more valuable at lower prices” Not economic truth. Lower prices may increase future upside and adoption incentives. But Bitcoin’s network value, security budget, and miner economics improve at higher prices, not lower. Unlike the dollar, BTC does not gain utility from being weaker. > “For Bitcoin to fail, USD and JPY would have to fail” This is provably false. Bitcoin could fail due to: regulatory bans protocol failure loss of miner security superior competing tech Fiat currencies can survive just fine without Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not systemically required for fiat survival.

EvenLion7908

Traders got liquidated, prices drops. All the pleb get rich quick losers panic and sell price goes down. ETF buyers panic and sell. Btc will be called a Ponzi scheme for the next 2 years and then in 2028 everyone buys at the top and we do this all over again 😂😂😂😂

No-Wish-4737

Saylor and ALL THE ETF's account for 30% of bitcoins demand on chain. So try again.

ImaFamilyGuy

Came looking for this comment. Ever since Ark filed for the new crypto ETF, I've been looking into alt currencies. I'm sure other firms will follow. I still think BTC is great for holding value but there are other better options for actual utility.

kajunkennyg

The last big drop was because of wall street. I posted here right after ETF's got launched saying it would not be good for btc. I may have been right. See what happened [here](https://x.com/HugotoCrypto/status/2020045654924419480?s=20).

HugeLarry

It’s true that the risk of self-custody user error is higher than third-party custodial risk for some people. If those people want BTC exposure as an investment, and if they trust their financial institution, then why shouldn’t they own BTC through an ETF or through their financial institution keeping custody on their behalf? It’s worth mentioning that exchanges aren’t the only custodians available. For example, Fidelity can now custody BTC, and although there’s risk with any custodian, I think it’s silly to claim that Fidelity is just as risky as any random crypto exchange. A lot of the people who want BTC exposure and don’t want to deal with self custody probably already have a bunch of assets with companies like Fidelity, so it’s a natural step for them. My view is that self custody, third-party custody, and the ETFs are not mutually exclusive, and that the ideal distribution across those depends on each person’s specific circumstances. Splitting BTC across those methods can be advantageous because it removes any single point of failure. If you screw up and lose your keys, at least you still have some BTC in ETFs or third-party custody. Similarly, if your custodian tanks or your government tries to seize assets, you still have your self-custody BTC. Another important consideration is that the ETFs have big tax advantages when held in retirement accounts. Logically, I agree with “Not your keys, not your coins”, but of course “Lose your keys, not your coins” is also true. Taking a broad view, our whole society is still based on trust. Trust between people. Trust between entities, etc. I’m a big fan of how BTC can be used in a totally trustless way, but I also think it’s reasonable to say that some people might want to trust other people / companies to take care of BTC on their behalf. Yes, they are taking a risk, but we’re all taking different risks all the time, and we all have to decide which ones we can live with.

SDW137

That's cute, I opened up a brokerage account and put most of my 401k in a BTC ETF, right when the BTC ETF became tradeable on Fidelity.

Unbalanced_Acctnt

Depends on each individual’s goals. If it’s only an investment or store of value for someone that’s not interested in self storage it makes sense. If you want to use BTC as a medium of exchange to expand its use as a currency or you are trying to avoid a centralized party holding it for you, self custody makes more sense. I have some self-custody and some in an ETF through my IRA and brokerage accounts. Each person needs to decide what works best for themselves.

BroadbandEng

Ignore all the nerds here who say she has to hold her own keys and have her invest in the Blackrock ETF. That way you won't have to be the one she blames for a 100% loss when she plays with tech she has no business fiddling with and gets hacked.

Comfortable-Prior922

Glad you said it. How are we feeling about iBit? Fidelity + ETF seems pretty safe to me

DekiEE

Well I think what we have seen is part of what many have actually wished for. Institutional involvement has opened the doors to many people who have never been in the crypto roller coaster before and additionally I suspect that a lot of ETF purchases are part of some managed portfolios which are nowhere near as risk averse as crypto guys and that they will sell off in order to save the overall portfolio performance.

noviwu97

I made lots of money going heavy-BTC portfolio in 2023 with average buy of $20k and sold 80% with average of $110k. Back then it's still niche to be heavy BTC, heavy ETH was much more common in retail. Which is why when BTC outperformed ETH, lots of people were sidelined and forced to buy high. ETF buy pressure also helps a lot. But now, heavy BTC has become the consensus. Consensus trade rarely bode well in crypto 

No_Giraffe_4647

I tend to agree especially for boomers generation. On my end I made a split into 3 parts: One part on ETF crypto One part on cold wallet One part on hot wallet Cold wallet is by definition the only viable choice if the global economy crash down for real, and financial institutions liquidating everything including your cryptos which are in fact IOU on the contrary of cold wallet storage. But on my end I do not see this crash coming before I die I would say we have until 2060+ before it happens with a realistic probability.

jwz9904

with the ETF, we won't get a deep bear again. Heard this before.

inexorable_stratagem

Buy just a little. Like 2% of her portfoio in a bitcoin ETF.  Super easy

CortaCircuit

You can use a platform like Onramp Bitcoin that uses multi-institutional custody so you have control of the keys. Much better than an ETF or leaving coins on Coinbase. 

Emergency-Warthog-56

That's ok. Everyone has their opinions. Maybe research ETF'S that went bad? They are out there.