ETF

Zealousideal_Rain_79

At this point, just buy a BTC ETF!

T_sauce9112

This is why I couldn't do that, read this : Can u tell me how many prompts it took for us to formulate the retracment thesis we have built? Yes. Based on the conversation history I can reconstruct, we're well over 100 prompts into developing and stress-testing the BTC retracement thesis. My best estimate is roughly 120–160 user prompts, beginning in earnest around mid-August and accelerating from Aug. 19 through today. That's not counting my responses as prompts. And importantly, those weren't 120 variations of "tell me BTC is going down." We progressively attacked the thesis from different directions: cycle history, MVRV, Bollinger mean reversion, RSI divergences, market structure, 80–85K liquidity, positioning, ETF flows, institutional/retail sentiment, historical bottoms, Elliott/Fibonacci structures, credit spreads, yields/rates, Fed policy, labor data, inflation, Japan, recession indicators, influencer theses, lunar-cycle claims, ETH/BTC divergences, liquidation maps, and potential catalyst timing. There were also several prompts where you specifically told me to look for evidence that contradicted the thesis, test whether the bottom actually was in, determine whether the four-year cycle had broken, and find what would invalidate the retracement rather than simply reinforce it. So the thesis we're sitting on now—roughly 80–85K as a potential distribution/liquidity-sweep region → meaningful downside with ~70K as the primary retracement area and 60–65K as the deeper-tail scenario—wasn't generated from one clever prompt. It evolved through dozens of independent questions and probably ~120–160 iterations. If we count every individual back-and-forth involved in the BTC thesis, including earlier work before Aug. 19, I wouldn't be surprised if we're approaching 200 total analytical iterations. This is why I'm so confident...

AbstinenceJr

Look… America has been around for 250 years… 250 years = 40 trillion debt . We need a whole new system. We are in debt 40t USD. This is where Web3/Blockchain/Crypto/ETFs . The Federal Reserve is going to pump the debt via ETF into the blockchain… Practically Uploading our debt online.

T_sauce9112

Omg, imma pray for u. And leave my chapgpt anaylsis here The price is going back to 1.10 around September 11-16 is my time horizon. We have HUGE catalyst that can most likely push BTc to the down side. Sept. 10 — U.S. PPI Sept. 11 — U.S. CPI Sept. 15–16 — Fed Sept. 17–18 — BOJ 1. September 10–16 is the obvious macro danger window This is probably the cleanest scheduled catalyst cluster. The official BLS calendar has PPI September 10 and CPI September 11, both at 8:30 a.m. ET. Then only four trading days later, the Fed meets September 15–16, with the decision on the 16th. And because this is a quarterly meeting, we also get the new Summary of Economic Projections/dot plot. 2. Japan may be the underappreciated one This is the catalyst I'm most interested in investigating further. Japan's bond market has been undergoing an enormous regime change. Japanese yields are at multi-decade highs, the yen has recently strengthened sharply, and markets are debating additional BOJ tightening. Why should a BTC trader care? Because for years investors could: borrow cheap yen → convert it → buy higher-yielding/risk assets → lever the trade. When Japanese rates rise and the yen strengthens, that trade becomes less attractive. Investors unwind: risk assets sold → currencies converted back to yen → yen appreciates → additional carry trades become painful → more deleveraging. That's the yen carry unwind. There's a second macro window after the Fed September 30 is another interesting date. BEA releases both the final Q2 GDP/corporate-profits data and August Personal Income and Outlays, which includes the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measures. Bureau of Economic Analysis And JOLTS arrives September 29. Bureau of Labor Statistics So September has effectively three macro clusters: Sept 10–11 PPI → CPI Sept 15–16 Fed → dot plot → Powell Sept 29–30 JOLTS → PCE → income/spending → corporate profits. That's a lot of opportunities for volatility. Rather than trying to predict the actual headline, I'd watch the financial fingerprints that usually appear before the headline becomes obvious: USDJPY rapidly falling — yen strengthening/carry unwind. Japanese yields rising — BOJ/liquidity stress. US 2Y rising — Fed repricing. DXY rising simultaneously — tightening global dollar liquidity. High-yield spreads widening — actual credit stress. VIX rising while equities haven't fallen much — hedging occurring before spot selling. BTC Coinbase premium weakening again — institutional spot bid disappearing. BTC OI remaining elevated while price falls — liquidation fuel building. ETF inflows continuing while BTC stops responding — absorption. If three or four of those begin moving together while BTC remains unable to clear $82–83K, it's highly probable we will sweep lower liquidity at 72k-75k This is my base case. We are bot breaking downside structure until Dec-Jan

AbstinenceJr

Long story short, the system is continuing to decline. Kevin Warsh is going to put trillions in ETF inflows to selected Cryptocurrencies… I have the list.

T_sauce9112

The price is going back to 1.10 around September 11-16 is my time horizon. We have HUGE catalyst that can most likely push BTc to the down side. Sept. 10 — U.S. PPI Sept. 11 — U.S. CPI Sept. 15–16 — Fed Sept. 17–18 — BOJ 1. September 10–16 is the obvious macro danger window This is probably the cleanest scheduled catalyst cluster. The official BLS calendar has PPI September 10 and CPI September 11, both at 8:30 a.m. ET. Bureau of Labor Statistics +1 Then only four trading days later, the Fed meets September 15–16, with the decision on the 16th. And because this is a quarterly meeting, we also get the new Summary of Economic Projections/dot plot. 2. Japan may be the underappreciated one This is the catalyst I'm most interested in investigating further. Japan's bond market has been undergoing an enormous regime change. Japanese yields are at multi-decade highs, the yen has recently strengthened sharply, and markets are debating additional BOJ tightening. Eurasia Business News +1 Why should a BTC trader care? Because for years investors could: borrow cheap yen → convert it → buy higher-yielding/risk assets → lever the trade. When Japanese rates rise and the yen strengthens, that trade becomes less attractive. Investors unwind: risk assets sold → currencies converted back to yen → yen appreciates → additional carry trades become painful → more deleveraging. That's the yen carry unwind. There's a second macro window after the Fed September 30 is another interesting date. BEA releases both the final Q2 GDP/corporate-profits data and August Personal Income and Outlays, which includes the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measures. Bureau of Economic Analysis And JOLTS arrives September 29. Bureau of Labor Statistics So September has effectively three macro clusters: Sept 10–11 PPI → CPI Sept 15–16 Fed → dot plot → Powell Sept 29–30 JOLTS → PCE → income/spending → corporate profits. That's a lot of opportunities for volatility. Rather than trying to predict the actual headline, I'd watch the financial fingerprints that usually appear before the headline becomes obvious: USDJPY rapidly falling — yen strengthening/carry unwind. Japanese yields rising — BOJ/liquidity stress. US 2Y rising — Fed repricing. DXY rising simultaneously — tightening global dollar liquidity. High-yield spreads widening — actual credit stress. VIX rising while equities haven't fallen much — hedging occurring before spot selling. BTC Coinbase premium weakening again — institutional spot bid disappearing. BTC OI remaining elevated while price falls — liquidation fuel building. ETF inflows continuing while BTC stops responding — absorption. If three or four of those begin moving together while BTC remains unable to clear $82–83K, I'd be considerably more interested in your $70K front-run. This is my base case. We are not going up until at least demecember into January

Forward_Sound_4434

Please dude, just stick to Blue Chip Shares, or ETF'S. There's no get rich quick investments as most will pull the rug or burn you!

nunyabizzy101

Don't forget this isn't their first attempt. There's been multiple campaigns in the past that have failed this time may be different. I think for now they're riding on the Zcash ETF wave.

dark-cosmos

Don't waste your time with anything else then bitcoin. But honestly, with this little amount, better spend it on ETF.

PeaceSalt8172

All-in Solana oder sogar nen Memecoin. Wenn ichs wirklich sicher bräuchte dann BTC, aber dann würd ichs wsl sogar nicht in Krypto sondern in nen ETF stecken.

KateR_H0l1day

I was up a lot last year, but just sold some rewards weekly for about 9 months, about $300/wee. But, it dropped below my pivot point, so I started accumulating again, and selling/trading TradFi, buying Crypto related coins and ETF Crypto related dividends, as I need income too. 2025 I paid taxes, both Capital Gains and Income on approximately $250K. But, my total holdings right now are down substantially, however I hold substantially more assets now than I did a year ago. So, I’m just waiting for BTC to go back up, it obviously fluctuates wildly!

Financial-Gap-6767

This. I'm on my third cycle and the dumbest thing ever was holding anything else. Also just buy ETF in tax advantaged broker account.

hank-_-the-_-tank

As a company that gets 0.4% of all the money that’s in their bitcoin ETF every year, I can understand why they wouldn’t talk shit about it.

KateR_H0l1day

12 different wallets, all of these are for different coin staking, one Ledger, which I wish I'd never bought,one CEX, which has several low $Value coins, and all my coins in a favourite list. For the most part, I just check the favourite list, and make decisions from there. And, of course I track all my Crypto ETF's in two portfolios, one tax free so far, and the other where I utilise for daily living. Essentially, I can look at BTC price and know where everything generally is, occasionally I get surprised though 😉 So, the easy answer to your question is, no,i have zero issues managing my various portfolios. But, I do this as a full time.e business!!

KateR_H0l1day

And we never had a High before the Halving, but we did this cycle, plus we never had ETF's before this cycle but now we do! Therefore, it's difficult for me to believe it's acting exactly the same as the previous cycles to this one 🙄 But, it's certainly going through the same cycle pattern, but just not exactly like before. However, I'm definitely not saying it won't go down again! Plus, the US administration is having a huge affect on the, which they've never had to this effect before. Additionally, we've never had a new player in the market place that soaks up capital like AI does. Last time anything effected the markets that much was Crypto itself!! Therefore, there's an awful lot of things that are pulling and shoving the cycle one way or another 😉 I'd be quite shocked if the cycle played out exactly the same as the early three cycles. And I haven't even mentioned the advent of BTC-TC's and their effects 🙄

3003IES

Specific year-end targets are hard to take seriously. I’d pay more attention to liquidity, ETF flows, macro conditions and volatility than whether someone picked $120k exactly. For people who want to trade the volatility rather than hold spot BTC, CFDs are one route, although the leverage and financing terms make the risk profile quite different from simply owning bitcoin.

OwnSkill882

The $730M in spot ETF inflows is the real story here not just the liquidations. when short covering drives the move it fades fast but actual buying pressure means something different $80k support test is the one that will tell us if this is for real. watched too many fakeouts where it looks strong then falls apart in couple days

Juus

Please be smart and don't put more than 5-10% of your net worth in crypto. Start with a foundation of a good diversified ETF. Then add on some crypto, if you still feel like that.

Potatotornado20

Hahahaha now the ATH comes before the fourth year Q4 low. These ETF investors are front running everything hahaha

Schvarg

Anyone who saves and invests or contributes to a retirement account like a 401k will be affected and here's why.Tech billionaires hold the vast majority of their wealth not in cash but in shares of the companies they run. For them to be forced to sell off their shares as part of an 'unrealized gains' tax, it would produce tremendous sell pressure on the underlying price of the asset and trigger a chain reaction of panic selling across all equity, ETF, and real-estate sectors. Everyone wold be running for the exit before the law was signed to avoid being on the hook. With such depreciated company valuations, it would also dampen the ability for companies to raise money and expand their businesses, causing economic stagnation and possible long term economic depression.

LionRivr

Yes. Debasement trade thesis is always alive in the long term. But there were more short term catalysts when we went from $120k to $60k. More liquidity problems and overall bearish sentiment after euphoric highs. You had tariff shocks, ETF outflows (traders/wallstreet taking profits), Fed was actually more hawkish and you couldn’t be sure if they’d flip dovish, just over-leveraged bullish people getting wiped out, less interest from retail. But now all those bears are flushed out, and the debasement trade is taking more precedent. Liquidity is certain to flow back in.

nameless_pattern

Approximately 60% of total exchange-traded fund (ETF) assets are linked to institutional investors, though the exact percentage of purchases varies substantially by fund type. [1] (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hP80MXoLd64&t=93) It would be more accurate to say that the majority of ETF purchases are by institutional investors.

OkIllustrator8380

Whether they are the majority of not doesn't change the fact that retail buys ETF. Many will buy it in their tax savings retirement accounts, even if they buy spot crypto in exchange. Obviously institutional money is larger.

OkIllustrator8380

Yes they but and sell the ETF. The ETF is not just institutional buyers. You think all the baby boomers are buying Bitcoin on exchanges?

drfellx

First ZEC ETF launch

OkIllustrator8380

Retail definitely buys ETF

CoinRabbitFinance

Hey! Exchange stablecoin reserves are only one part of the liquidity picture. A decline can mean that funds moved on-chain, into wallets or lending platforms, or were already rotated into BTC. It does not necessarily mean potential buyers have disappeared. I would also watch net stablecoin issuance, spot volume, ETF flows, and whether stablecoins return to exchanges during pullbacks. CoinRabbit is one example of why exchange balances alone are incomplete: stablecoins can be held and used outside an exchange while still remaining part of the broader market liquidity.

Master-Monitor112

This is why bitcoin is on a small uptrend because of ETF BTC investors believing this October hype.

Hour_Flounder1405

and both can be wrong imagine for a moment that the so called store of value (bitcoin is a deflationary asset) no longer holds true and that its purely a speculative asset held together solely by the significant rise of algorithmic AI models that extract profits second by second ekking out very fast, very tiny arbitrage opportunities that exist between various exchange platforms and market makers? and that despite what we might think we know about the impact and consequences of the very high probability of interest rate hikes, treasuring buy backs...those things don't hold much weight at all in the decision of "bots". They are not designed to predict future movement based on macro economic schedules. They act solely to capture these fshort lives, but extremely profitable changes in prices that exist almost all the time; changes in price we the retail traders will never see, cannot see, because they are literally hidden from our price feeds or because the same exchanges upon which these arb opportunities exist make them available ONLY to private companies who pay handsomely for this data...dozens and dozens of different global exchanges, all attempting to present the price of bitcoin as one single thing...which it absolutely cannot be. this is a new development, esp with respect to the speed and growth of these monster super intelligent bots. The models and cycle and macro impacts are therefore immaterial to price in the long run. What is left are those who insist that they must exist...the retail trader/investor and the sellors of ETF's .. and this isn't just bitcoin to be clear. ket me give an example. blackrock has ticket called TLT-USD. It's at its 20 year low for "a reason". inflation has increased during that time. As interest rates have been increased, 20 years bonds, while paying a semi attractive premium on interest, the underlying value to the bond does down. The explains the price of TLT-USD. It is at a 20 year low. However, what I predict is that despite the near certainty that the fed will increase interest rates at least 2 times in the near future...probably once soon, and another after the midterms...(again, the entire market is already pricing these changes), what happens if TLT-USD actually goes UP? and I think it will. This is where one can study the disconnect between what we "think" about classical correlations between a week dollar and bond rates...but more improtantly, recognizing that even stocks such as TLT-USD are now subject to bot trading in a way that has not happened before. The decoupling from all classical interpretations between macro events and these assets happens..and will probably happen. I am not suggesting anyone go out and bet the farm on TLT, nor am I advocating that we short bitcoin either. What I am suggesting is that the classical means to derive future price of these assets are no longer in correlation to macro event links...and are more or less controlled by edge trading bots that never sleep, never stop trading and do so with enormous leverage...I call them super hedge vehicles. When you accept this new reality, price then is nothing more than what you might expect from gambling in a casino. And in a casino if you are caught using statistical and probabilistic methods to "cheat the casino", you will ge thrown out and never to be allowed to gamble again. Because that is the only way you can win anything from a casino. Or become lucky as with the lottery. As much as we would like to think bitcoin is going to rise in price due to store of value thinking...the energy costs to continue to mine that last 1 million coins...and that somehow it is limited and scarce over time...those things no longer carry any impact on the price. The casinos hold that price. And they don't care what that price can be or will be. They only care to clip the liquidity when it occurs. Now we can continue to hold on to this notion that bitcoin will follow some cycle and hit new all time highs. But I seriously doubt that will ever be true. What is more likely is that we will see long periods of retracement, followed by sharp spikes either way. The lull is the building of liquidity and the spikes happen at the most unpredictable moment to take that liquidity and knock down over exuberant short or long dumb dumb money. volatilty is produced yes in this kind of action, but it does not guarantee prices will go up significant;y. They might even go down significantly to attract legacy retail traders/investors who still cling to the idea that lower prices of bitcoin represents some kind of value that is irresistible to ignore. And when that happens, lets saya 50K, 33K, 17K...the typical retracement "hard support floors" that are often discussed...bitcoin doesn't stop getting hammered well below those values. its definitely something to think about. there is no free lunch don't bet the farm God Bless America

Ok_Lunch1400

ETF

bananabastard

>It would be smarter to invest in a more stable stock/ETF in my opinion That's been accepted as the "smart" choice since 2009.

JacobCohen5

When ETF inflows and macro liquidity dwarf daily miner rewards, the halving becomes noise rather than the signal. Bitcoin is just growing up into a traditional macro asset.

Adorable_Check510

Depends on what kind of money we are talking about. But generally speaking, I’d sell most of it (maybe 80%) and from that spend money on one thing that is important to you (travel, lifestyle, business,… but with a clear budget) and invest the rest into a World ETF.

Adorable_Check510

Finally someone with good advice. Listen to this guy. And by invest: not all in crypto, but into a relatively safe ETF

Beautiful-Narwhal690

They didn't need the funds until now? Crypto is kinda on the fence as far as community acceptance goes. It would be smarter to invest in a more stable stock/ETF in my opinion but I'm just a dumbass on the internet nobody should be taking financial advice from anyway.

chainglance_cm

You're not missing much, that tension is real. An ETF gets you price exposure only, no wallet, no keys, no actually holding the asset, which cuts against the whole self custody point of Bitcoin. But it does have real upsides. It sits in a normal brokerage account, can go inside an IRA, and taxes are simple since your broker just sends a 1099. GBTC's 1.5% annual fee is steep though compared to newer spot ETFs charging way less. Self custodied BTC has none of those fees but you're tracking your own cost basis across every wallet and exchange, which gets messy without tools like Koinly or Bitcoin.Tax (or Chain Glance if using DeFi) and you're also responsible for the safety of your assets. Basically comes down to owning the asset vs just owning its price.

newMoneyStyle

Yeah, ETF route is way easier unless you really want self-custody.

Romanizer

Depends on what you think is the concept behind Bitcoin. Holding the ETF still helps to secure your position in the debasement trade while mitigating self-custody risk.

SpendHefty6066

You can have exposure to the price of it. But you cannot own Bitcoin in an ETF. Exposure and secured ownership are not the same.

DifficultSquash1517

Nothing. I'm very confident my ETF is not going to be drained💪👍

GettingFasterDude

If 1000 BTC, I'd hold 1/3 in an ETF (FBTC or iBIT), 1/3 in Fidelity Crypto and 1/3 in cold storage (collaborative multisig).

BambooShuriken

Hola, yo empezaría por invertir, no por hacer trading. Al principio céntrate en pocos activos que entiendas, como Bitcoin o un ETF del S&P 500. Cuando ya te sientas más cómodo y entiendas mejor cómo funcionan los mercados, puedes aprender sobre trading. Y si algún día quieres especular con memecoins, hazlo con una cantidad pequeña que estés dispuesto a perder. Lo importante es pasar tiempo en los mercados, vivir la volatilidad y no arriesgar demasiado al principio. Si tienes dudas concretas, pregúntalas por aquí y con gusto intento ayudarte.

olyvian

thanks! good idea. Real in/outflows (exchange flows, ETF flows) need on-chain data that CoinGecko doesn't have, so I can't do those properly. What I do have is daily volume, which is already on the coin pages, and I could add the dollar change in market cap over a week or month, though that's a value change rather than money actually moving. Would that be useful, or did you mean something more like exchange flows?

Cold_Law4248

Not sure if you saw the actual disclosures OP linked but it's more complicated than that. The trust documents basically say they can decide to abandon any fork rights if they think it's not worth the trouble, and they don't owe shareholders anything from it. So even if some fork somehow held value, the fund could just say nah and move on Went through similar thing with my own keys back in 2017, had to figure out which exchanges even supported the fork coins to dump them. Was a whole process and the value dropped like 80% by the time I got access The real question is what happens if a fork actually gains traction and the ETF just ignored it for months, that's when the legal mess starts

ArugulaPotential366

Same. Started with a little and now it makes up roughly 60% of my portfolio. I made the decision to allocate the rest of my budget this financial year to btc and a smaller percentage to ETF's for now

Low_Bodybuilder7594

we went from debating what money should be to watching ETF inflow charts

Extension-Car8582

It's funny you mention Andreas, his talks were basically required listening back then. felt more like a movement than a market. i stumbled across one of his lectures around 2015 and it just clicked, not the price, but the why. now half the chatter is about ETF inflows and who spoke at whatever conference. different energy entirely

KevinNegocios

Honestly, the hopium in this headline is off the charts. First, comparing a global, permissionless network to the S&P 500 (a strictly US-centric stock index) is like comparing apples to a toaster. But the real joke is confusing "price exposure" with actual adoption. Having 50 bucks sitting on a centralized exchange or buying a fraction of a Wall Street ETF does not mean you "own" Bitcoin. If we take Woo's 5% and filter it down to users who actually hold their own private keys in cold storage—which is the entire point of the protocol—we’d be lucky to even scrape 1%.

Maleficent-Lie1877

I wouldn’t put much weight on the “experts” calling $120k specifically. Bitcoin has a history of making reasonable forecasts look silly in both directions, so I’d look more at liquidity, ETF flows, macro conditions and whether the broader market is still willing to take risk. I’ve traded BTC through enough volatility to know that being right on the long-term direction doesn’t necessarily mean being right on the timing. If you want to speculate on the move without holding BTC directly, platforms like Libertex are one option, but I’d still treat that as a high-risk trade rather than a bet on a guaranteed target.

ArugulaPotential366

Do u solely have Bitcoin or do you also have some ETF's as well ? Most of my portfolio is BTC and I'm 28 years old. I'm trying to figure out if I should max out my tax free savings account or take advantage of the Bitcoin dip

Turbulent-Land-5664

Obviously its a supply and demand Q. Assets rise when the demand increases. I think the adoption will be more institutional, either through investment proxies, ETF's or actual reserves or countries. New people actually purchasing actual BTC for the first time - maybe not so much. Just my guess.

Wide-Wallaby

I have 400 K bitcoin ETF I just saw covered calls or cash secured plates and just go back-and-forth generating money off that to cushion except when I think there’s a bull rush, then I just lay off

Chickensrock1977

Many exchanges or ETF providers offer basket products. That way your investment is spread across several projects instead of hoping just one moon shots.

arBettor

Yeah, either way, if you outsource your investment decisions to an index/committee, then you get to live with the decisions of that committee as long as you're exposed to the index. You may not agree with their decisions, in which case you can buy another index ETF or build your own portfolio. If you wish MSTR was in your ETF still, you could literally just buy shares of MSTR to supplement the ETF.

arBettor

Yeah, it IS up to the market. There are countless index providers and you can choose an index ETF according to your preferences. You can sell your All World ETF and buy something else quite easily and cheaply.

Odra_dek

>Equity investors prefer to own equity in operating companies instead of holding companies for commodities or digital assets. Wouldn't it be up to the market - you know, said Equity Investors - to decide what they prefer and not the wise masters of MSCI rulemaking? As an All World ETF investor I would also have preferred to not own even a tiny piece of the ludicriously overvalued SpaceX stock, but here we are.

LucaRossi0

She buys ETF indices, he buys 100x leverage Bitcoin. Perfectly balanced, as all financial ruin should be.

CoinGate_Gift_Cards

The more interesting signal is exactly what you pointed out: whether BTC can stay resilient when ETF flows cool off. If price only holds when there’s constant institutional buying, that’s not especially healthy.

Icy-Dust2485

I see your point but if that's your argument on why you should put money into Bitcoin then keep it in an index fund or in a broad ETF because those are much less volatile and also go up due to inflation. Why would i choose volatile Bitcoin over an ETF if i want to avoid inflation decay?

Ollis-Yonda

I feel like people give ETF inflows and outflows more credit than they deserve. A couple billion daily doesn't do much when the underlying asset is worth trillions

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

UpsetProfession511

I think periods like this era useful because they show how much the market relies on fresh inflows. If Bitcoin can hold steady even when ETF demand slow down, it could be a sign that there is stronger underlying demand supporting the market.

DangerousBaker6338

The whole ETF flow obsession is just another way for people to feel like they know what comes next. Most of that money is not checking charts every hour anyway, and pension money moves on a different calendar from day traders. A red day after 3 billion is not a signal, its noise.

ImpressiveRelief37

I might be the only one but god damn everytime I do a tx from the old cold wallet it’s super unnerving. I’m scared to death I do something dumb and lose my stash… I wish I just had the ETF tbf. Granted I kinda have a lot to lose, not just a few thousands 

Special-Prior-7272

He tried to explain this on a recent podcast (Diary of a CEO). Long story short he believed that institutional investors were betting that MSTR’s leveraged ETF could not withstand sustained downwards selling pressure. That confidence, liquidity, and credit would collapse if MSTR sold any BTC. They bet that once BTC traded under a certain ratio, it would force a BTC sale which would collapse MSTR’s ETF and likely the company. So they were shorting the shit out of BTC and MSTR. Saylor reasoned it would better to go on the offensive, sell some BTC, and prove that the ETF (and bonds) would be fine. Arguably, it worked.

Commercial_Pea1194

If you just want leveraged BTC exposure, Moon is an option to look at. It’s not a stock or ETF though, you’re wagering up or down on BTC

Prestigious_Try_3741

Bitcoin is money. Bitcoin on Fidelity is an ETF of bitcoin. Someone other than you owns the bitcoin. If their website is down or you need your money, you have to ask permission and wait to get it in fiat into a bank account. Then trigger a report to the IRS to pay taxes on your money you had someone holding for you. Your bank does same

Mack_Mimsy

Has been since ETF approval.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **Good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (**air-gapped**) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is **not air-gapped**. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better build. I would go stateless instead of using their servers. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. There's also ColdCard, great features but recently had a massive duckup, I would wait until all of their code is fully open source, preferably rewritten by the community before touching it. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

leo_of_august

If it's good enough for Harvard’s endowment fund, it's good enough for BlackRock to sustain their most successful + profitable ETF in 2025 alone.

Uzivert-

Bitcoin ETFs racked in 3 Billion in the last week. That is good news for me. Institutions have not given up on the asset. Retail aren’t the only players anymore and we are small players now. The giants have entered the arena. Honestly, the moment BlackRock announced their ETF, that was the point of no return. Trump endorsing Bitcoin and firing Gensler was the sweet cherry on top. BlackRock has scooped up 820K (currently 777k) BTC in 2 years. It took Saylor 5 to get there and with massive leverage. BlackRock has gotten there due to client demand. Lmao, I truly believe “it’s going up forever, Laura”.

LowerStranger9021

These are short term trading vehicles. Not intended for long term holding. The structure of these ETFs is the reason they aren’t recommended for buy and hold investing. Even the marketing materials for this particular ETF caution against holding for more than a few days. If they are saying that it’s wise to listen.

LNCrizzo

Dice roll to select your words directly from a table like [this one](https://github.com/scottmsul/DiceTables/blob/master/dice_tables.pdf) or [this one if you only have D6s. ](https://github.com/taelfrinn/Bip39-diceware/blob/master/coin_plus_d6_bip39.pdf) Roll 23 words (or 11), then have the device calculate the final word. Then check the complete seed on another wallet to make sure it gives you the same addresses as your Trezor. You can do this with an online wallet since you probably don't have a second HWW or offline computer, just discard that first seed after you are done. Maybe do a small test transaction and play with the features and phone app on the throwaway first to get comfortable. Then when you're ready roll a new seed that you only enter into the Trezor. Checking a seed on two different wallets ensures that the Trezor is correctly generating the wallet from your seed words and it is recoverable. By dice rolling your seed you know that the entropy exists because you shook up the dice yourself (I recommend shaking them in a cup). Using a word lookup table bypasses trusting the software to convert a random string of numbers into words for you. You can see that the entropy of a 1D4 and 3D8 table is solid because 4x8x8x8=2048, which is exactly how many BIP 39 seed words there are to choose from. If you let the Trezor generate the seed then you can't be sure and just have to trust they did everything right. If this all sounds like too much work then I don't know what to tell you. I don't know how much BTC you're trying to secure, but if it is or could eventually be a life changing amount then spending the time and effort to learn this stuff should be a no-brainer. If you just want it to be easy then buy the ETF or keep it on an exchange.

miner_guy_22

Diversifying against different attacks/points of failure is a good strategy. Should add that depending on which ETF, if they are using Coinbase for custody you haven't diversified and have added another potential point of failure.

DifficultSquash1517

I'm a sucker for greed and security so I go with the ETF not only is it safeguard against any hacks I also get to earn up to 2% every month writing calls on my positions 🤑

Expectations1

Jokes aside, mt view is that as this pump is ETF driven they will have a longer term horizon, they arent going to be trading this like the derivatives markets. Thiswasnt a leverage driven pump. Best bet is get in at the 70-$74k range.

United_Weight3580

Do you care about Bitcoin and the Blockchain as concepts? Do you intend to "use" btc for something except as an investment or trading/gambling? If you answer no to both these questions and only want financial exposure to the btc price, you're better off buying a BTC ETF

AggravatingGuest1956

Just allocate a small Roth portion to crypto ETF’s and forget about it. I’d steer clear people I know IRL to actually wanting to purchase on an exchange, explore DeFi, or anything else in crypto. You’re better off just buying the majors and forgetting about them instead of picking the .00001% coin that isn’t a scam or rugpull. Same reasoning behind VOO and chill.

AutoModerator

Post is by: orid7 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1w1rvfe/btc_85k_by_2026_is_68c_but_smart_money_is_81_yes/ One BTC prediction market I keep coming back to: "Bitcoin hits $85,000 before 2027" is sitting around 68c. The clean read is almost boring: the model number I have is 70c, so there is not some giant gap here. The interesting part is the wallet split. Among tracked profitable prediction-market traders, about 81% of the smart-money side is YES. That makes this feel less like "BTC is obviously cheap" and more like a crowding question. If the market is already near fair value, are those wallets seeing a path/volatility edge, or are they just all leaning the same obvious macro trade? Touch markets are weird because BTC does not need to end 2026 above $85k. It only has to tag it once. That makes 68c look less aggressive than it would for a year-end close market. But the other side is real too: long-dated markets tie up capital, spreads can eat the apparent edge, and one slow volatility-crush period makes the "one wick will do it" thesis a lot weaker. What would you want to see before calling this correctly priced: options vol, ETF flow, liquidity on the market itself, or just BTC reclaiming a specific level first? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

womanlyhegemony0

$100k is just a number but the ETF flow charts don't lie, liquidity is getting hoovered up faster than anything I've seen

The-great-phoenix

This is a complex situation: Macroeconomy is bad so it will put a medium downward pressure on crypto market Tokenization of RWA is progressing and will expand the size of crypto market with a large upward pressure Prediction markets and perpetual contract are adding volatility so the price could go wild because of massive liquidation either up or down. The individuals and institutional interest regarding crypto is growing so there are more ETF and wallets opening that are channeling more money so upward pressure on cryptos Finally inflation will drive price of token up especially the ones that are deflationary or with max supply released Globally I would say that price has most chance to go up in the near future unless we enter into a depp recession

KrazyKreutz

I thought about this.. Probably the greatest reason it won't happen. But im pretty sure big institutions can still invest money during the weekend right, its just their stocks won't move. ETF's and stuff of course won't flow in during the weekend but still.

DangKilla

Not a chance. All ETF’s bought in at $32K and one at 51K.

devCheckingIn

9-day ETF inflow streak broken yesterday 🥀

Signal-Fig-2952

Self custody is going to be increasing hazardous as more and more interest in Bitcoin appears in the coming years. The thieves and crooks will become more determined to steal your assets. Props to those of you who are still determined to hold the keys, but I prefer not being killed in my home. I keep it in custodial management in an ETF (and some on Coinbase but with physical 2FA, multisig, and time locks).

SoullessGinger666

ETF's

Romanizer

We have build support and bottom around the 200WMA around $60k, saw seller exhaustion at that level and just saw $3 billion of ETF inflows around the short squeeze. Price is now close to 50WMA. After the last bear market, we had to wait 4 months to climb to that level. Most on-chain indicators are bullish. I don't see a bear case anymore. The only counterargument is "October" from those that can't count days on their own.

migueliiito

I might get downvoted to oblivion, but honestly the lowest risk for most people is an ETF, or Coinbase using their vault feature

ElderberryPerfect263

Self custody is for ideologues. ETF’s are way easier to transact

BigvalBROski

Buy the ETF…… much easier…. This isn’t 2018. Get to 1 coin and hold for 20 years .

Cheqraise

Feel like a more balanced strategy is needed. I'd just stick 80% of it on the All World ETF. Spacex is a long term investment so not sure what you expected from holding the stock for a couple of months. Still worth holding a bit. I'd honestly not touch Bitcoin. Good luck to you anyway and hope it works out.

nomady

2.5 billion flooded in by ETF the last 5 days.

Physical-Salary5713

I think alts have a chance only with ETF investors. If more ETFs will be applied, we can see altseosen for some of them

joefunk76

The expense fee of an ETF comes out the back-end. It doesn’t matter what kind of tax vehicle you hold it in. The price is the price at any given time, no matter where it’s held.

SamwiseGamgee87

Also today with ETF, probably a lot of people have more than 1 BTC but who they manage the address is something we can't know.

RandomPlayerCSGO

Because I want to buy real BTC and transfer it to my wallet not an ETF

holdy73

Judging by the response, it’s no longer available — it closed in February 2024. I only found SJIM on TradingView, but it also closed before 2024. Another interesting thing is that a similar fund that invested with Cramer (Long Cramer Tracker ETF, ticker: LJIM) closed even earlier — in August 2023, having existed for only 5 months. In short, there won’t be any money, guys, let’s go.

froopadiddilydoop

They aren’t pathetic, I’ve made quite good money from ETF, and believe it or not, the Bonds and Gilts markets.

sspecialists

Collapse? hahaha go buy an ETF if you aren’t ready for 15% swings. 1% is nothing in crypto.

Substantial_Trip_706

Creo que usted ni siquiera sabe lo que es un ETF