ETF

slickrick_27

Yeah I definitely don’t think it’s going to be 1M or anything crazy by then. It just seems with increased adoption, ETF exposure, country reserves, etc it should be higher. Maybe in the 300s?

NoBrosCrypto

Was looking at this earlier today. ETF money flow nets out to approx. $53B inflows since the ETFs began in 2024 and $30B net inflow in the last 12 months. That’s after accounting for all the outflows. Follow the money. Ignore the noise.

Nice_Material_2436

Where exchanges didn't have to worry too much about people withdrawing real money, they now they have to take ETFs into account. It's much riskier to pump the price and try to induce a bullrun when ETF sellers can demand real dollars at any moment without a way to stall or block accounts. So yea don't get your hopes up for another bullrun based on monopoly money.

_Stylite

The idea that Clarity Act passes and suddenly the next year there will be billions in inflows from banks and monry managers with fiduciary dity is a pipe dream and there is no reason to believe that. There is literally nothing stopping any ofmthe parties you mentioned from buying BTC derivatives, ETFs, commodities contracts and pegging a client’s portfolio to BTC to any degree, other than the market risk of the investment. What do you think stops any of those funds from riding BTC investment through other vehicles? BTC ETF’s are already here my friend, and ETFs are the preferred vehicle for all money managers under fiduciary duty. Once ahaincyou have demonstrated thet you have no idea what you are talking about. And btw banks avoid BTC because it’s their competition, and also too risky. Nothing to do with regulation or compliance at all

UrbanGrower187

Coca-Cola isn’t a comparable example because its supply isn’t fixed, it isn’t a monetary network, and it doesn’t have the same adoption dynamics. My thesis isn’t “Bitcoin went up before so it’ll go up again.” It’s that Bitcoin’s fundamentals today scarcity, institutional demand, ETF inflows, and growing global adoption support a bullish outlook. Historical returns are just context, not the thesis. And saying BTC could go to $100 or $1,000,000 isn’t a useful investment thesis every asset has upside and downside. The question is which outcome is more probable based on the available evidence.

UrbanGrower187

That’s fair if you’re evaluating Bitcoin as a mature asset instead of a startup network. But even over the last 3–5 years it has outperformed most major asset classes despite surviving a 70%+ bear market, multiple regulatory crackdowns, and now trading as an institutional asset. The question isn’t whether the CAGR will match its first 15 years. it almost certainly won’t. The question is whether adoption, ETF inflows, sovereign accumulation, and a fixed 21 million supply continue to drive demand faster than supply. That’s a very different argument than saying its best days are behind it.

Financial-Gap-6767

Convert my coin to ETF in a tax free account

LevelZero_Project

I feel you on that psychological grind. The slow bleed is honestly way worse than a 30% daily red candle. A flash crash rips the band-aid off and gives us that volume climax we all want to buy. This slow chop just drains your sanity. The reason this cycle doesn't rhyme with the old ones and lacks that "violent puke" capitulation is exactly because of the ETFs and the Wall Street money you mentioned. The market structure fundamentally changed. We aren't just dealing with retail degens getting liquidated on 100x leverage anymore. We're dealing with institutional algorithmic unwinding and capital rotating into AI stocks. That doesn't happen in one massive red candle; it happens in a slow, agonizing multi-month distribution. As for the two camps: 42-44k is definitely the max-pain scenario. If liquidity keeps flowing into tech/AI and the ETF outflows persist, we could easily grind down to the low 40s to flush out the absolute last drop of retail hope. BUT, waiting for it is a dangerous game because right now, everyone and their mother is placing limit orders in the 40s expecting the obvious play. The market rarely gives the masses exactly what they are waiting for. Honestly, sitting on your hands isn't the worst play here if you're already positioned. But if you're sitting on dry powder, trying to snipe the exact bottom usually just leads to getting left behind when things randomly reverse. This is exactly the kind of boring, soul-crushing sideways action where the only real defense is a blind, automated DCA. Turn off the charts, let the auto-buys trigger, and go outside. The chop is designed to make you make a mistake. Don't let it win.

tgreen0504

I just genuinely don’t understand why care about what other ppl are investing in lol. Like, I am not a dividend investor. I primarily invest in broad market ETF’s….but you won’t see me on a dividend investing page trying to give “thought experiments” to ppl lol. Live your life. Why worry about other ppls money? Weird to me bro

ProtectionMoney9176

Tough macro environment right now 👀 Rate hike fears + ETF outflows = short term pain but historically these periods create the best long term entry points The Clarity Act delay is frustrating though regulatory clarity would be a massive catalyst.

Laukess

Sounds like you're making the assumption that this sub-reddit is an accurate representation of the community. I think this place is mostly frequented by bitcoiners and shitcoiners that have only been into bitcoin for a year or 2. This place is mostly noise, and I think most people move on to places with more signal, when they realize they wont find it here. I also don't agree that people have to understand bitcoin for it to succeed. We're still fairly early in the adoption phase, so it's all a bit hazy at the moment, but I think as adoption increase (might be for investments reasons for some time to come), the price will increase, and stabilize, and I think we'll see more normies adopt it. It's a bit extreme, but you see countries like El Salvador where they moved from their own currency to the USD for stability. We might see normies in 20-30 years use bitcoin because they can see that it's the stronger currency. Now, the road to global adoption is long and unclear. I don't know the exact steps we'll have to go through partially because the future in uncertain. We might also get to a point where banks will custody your bitcoin, and you'll be able to use it the exact same way as they use fiat today (including chargebacks and the likes). They'll obviously still get the upside from the issuarance cap, but will lose out on a lot of the other powerful properties of bitcoin. Think of it as a bitcoin standard, like the gold standard where paper might be backed by bitcoin instead of gold. This will allow the normies to use bitcoin as just another currency, but people who understand the power of bitcoin can self custody, and get all the benefits. The adoption of ETF's are a bit worrisome though. Maybe they'll have to get burned to understand the power of self custody. I think that's my biggest worry right now, a future where 99% of the bitcoin is custodied by a 3rd party would be a wasted oppotunity, but it would still be better than what we have today, and we can force people to use bitcoin the way we think they should, but we can try to educate them. Cheers

morerepsmoreproblems

I’ve got into the stock market back in October and have been buying ETF since then. Much better move not going to 100x your money overnight, but it’s very nice to open the portfolio and never see it lose value

coindigest

Your "doesn't rhyme" instinct is the sharpest thing in here, and I think there's a real reason for it. The violent puke we used to get came from over-leveraged retail and miners all getting force-liquidated in a cluster. A lot of the marginal flow now runs through ETFs and slower institutional hands that rebalance gradually instead of panic-dumping into one wick. So you get this grind-lower attrition instead of a single clean capitulation candle. Waiting for a 2018 or 2022 style flush might be waiting for a signal this market structure just doesn't really produce anymore. Which kind of flips it: the boredom might BE the capitulation this time, just the time-based version. "Everyone's scared but nobody's given up" dragging on for months is its own form of giving up, people leave quietly instead of nuking the bottom in a day. Almost worse psychologically, like you said. On an actual number, anyone handing you a confident one is guessing, me included. The 42-44k camp is leaning on ETF outflows and the AI-stock rotation, the 55-58k camp is betting the bid holds. Both reasonable. I'd watch the flows and whether dips keep making higher lows way more than any single level. And honestly "not selling, not buying, sitting on my hands" is a totally defensible spot. For most people on a long enough horizon, just keeping a steady stack through the chop beats trying to nail the exact bottom. Sometimes no move is the move.

coindigest

Honest take: the four-year cycle was never magic, it was three things stacking, the halving supply shock, retail FOMO, and leverage blowing up on a rough timer. The reason it might genuinely be breaking is that the halving matters less every single time. The block reward is now tiny next to the coins already in circulation, so the "supply shock" is mathematically weaker each cycle while ETF and institutional flows have become the thing actually moving price. Those flows don't run on a four-year clock, they run on macro liquidity and allocation decisions. So I'd push back gently on the framing: "cycle is dead" doesn't automatically mean "up only with alts pumping." It more likely means longer, choppier, macro-driven moves instead of the clean parabola-then-crash we got used to. Which lines up with what a lot of people are feeling, that this stretch doesn't rhyme with the old ones. On the alt pump specifically, I'd temper that. Liquidity is now spread across thousands of tokens and ETFs are funnelling flow into BTC and ETH, so a broad 2021-style alt season is structurally harder to pull off than it used to be. Could still happen in pockets, but "everything pumps" is a tougher ask now. Nobody actually knows, including me. But if the old clock is breaking, the move is to stop watching the calendar and start watching liquidity and flows. That's the signal that's actually driving this thing now.

coindigest

Your instinct that this cycle "doesn't rhyme" is the sharpest thing in the post, and I think there's a real structural reason for it. The violent puke we used to get came from over-leveraged retail and miners all getting force-liquidated at once. A lot of the marginal flow now runs through ETFs and slower institutional hands that rebalance gradually instead of panic-dumping. So you get this grind-lower attrition instead of one cathartic flush. Waiting for a 2018 or 2022 style capitulation candle might be waiting for a signal this new market structure just doesn't really produce anymore. Which kind of means the boredom IS the capitulation this time, just the time-based, bleed-people-out version rather than the price-based one. "Everyone's scared but nobody's given up" dragging on for months is its own form of giving up, people just leave quietly instead of nuking the bottom in a single candle. On levels, nobody has a real edge on the exact number and anyone handing you a confident one is guessing. The 42-44k camp is leaning on the ETF outflows and the AI-stock rotation, the 55-58k camp is betting the bid holds, and both are reasonable reads. I'd watch the flows and whether bounces keep making higher lows way more than any single price. Honestly "not selling, not buying, sitting on my hands" is a totally defensible spot right now and probably beats trying to be a hero in either direction. Sometimes the move is no move.

TheresNoSecondBest

Perhaps you need to read this, mate: Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (air-gapped) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is not air-gapped. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

CryptoAnarchyst

If you believe that Bitcoin can continue after failure of Strategy, especially after this administration's antics within the crypto sector, then you are a much more naive person than anyone I know. FTX collapse nearly killed crypto and if it wasn't for people like Tom Lee and Michael Saylor, who championed the theory that Bitcoin can be used in a business model, we would not be anywhere close to where we are now. Firstly, we wouldn't have had the ETFs in place, which Michael Saylor was instrumental in assisting with the framework for the iBIT ETF (Fink has always been vocal about Saylor's assistance and continued partnership). Saylor doing what he did with Strategy is what finally drove Fink to apply for the iBIT ETF and push the approval through. Secondly, if the Strategy model fails, then so does any business case use. "JUST HODL" is a great mantra for retail people, but there is no market for Bitcoin in business and institutional world. Insurance agencies can't hold it on the books because they can't lend against it, so it is a useless asset to them. Pension funds can't hold it, nor can they hold iBIT stock in many cases. Sovereign funds are not going to touch it in current form because without strong business use there is no path towards fast adoption. That means that any hope of institutional investment in the next decade or two is gone... and it also means that the money that is in it right now will rotate elsewhere. Three, if Strategy fails, it will bring down significant regulatory restrictions from the Government. Trump has politicized Bitcoin, and that is not a good thing. Having Strategy fail means Clarity Act will be scrapped, and a new more strict version will come out. Probably something akin to what EU is doing right now. That means that not only there will be no business case use, but there will be no retail case use. Your logic assumes "everything as is" but you fail to understand that the markets will not wait for "but this is better digital money" argument. Liquidity will rotate into something new that can make them more money, plain and simple. You've seen that with AI, and the creation of the massive bubble we are in. But if Strategy fails, the Elizabeth Warrens of the world will have enough ammo to gain public support and kill any hope of future crypto growth in the US. FTX set us back years, Strategy will set us back decades if it fails.... the 900K coins hitting the market might be absorbable, but not the 4Million+ tokens which are going to be hitting the market from ETFs and retail... and if miners rotate out, and utilize their data center infrastructure for AI, then you really have nothing left. Be careful for what you wish for... Wanting Strategy to fail is wanting Bitcoin to fail... plain and simple. You can rationalize your hate any way you want but facts are simple, the only reason why FTX didn't do as much damage to crypto in the US is because it was predominantly operating in Bahamas. If it was a US based business, current situation would have been much much more dire.

LuckyWinds

> Why does it matter if it’s a third party? I literally could not care less. You might not care that you are completely reliant on third party businesses to facilitate practically every single transaction for you, others find issue with that. And transactions are just 1 use case of many. Not every use case will be applicate to every single person in the world and for every single instance. So of course some use cases (or even all use cases) will not be applicable to you. That's fine. > It’s just extremely niche The bitcoin ETFs were the fastest growing ETFs of all time. IBIT is Blackrock's most profitable ETF. So the worlds largest asset manager's most profitable ETF is...bitcoin. There are 37 bitcoin ETFs out there. Most major financial institutions offer bitcoin products. Bitcoin is one of the largest assets in the world. How is that "niche"? Bitcoin is pretty mainstream at this point.

Infamous_Mechanic356

But the outflow hurts.....lol[ETF outflow](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/25/bitcoin-etfs-see-record-investor-flight-as-the-cryptocurrency-hits-new-2024-lows.html)

AncestorFlat

If you are so certain Bitcoin will keep dropping, you should short it with an inverse ETF to profit—but I doubt you actually have the confidence to make that bet.

devCheckingIn

It's just a vehicle for increasing BTC exposure. That means MSTR goes up more than BTC in bull markets and down more in bear markets. An ETF will only give you 1-to-1 exposure to BTC whereas MSTR is accretive, increasing BTC per share by purchasing BTC with stock issuance.

AutoModerator

Post is by: AIautoagent1 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ugcog4/are_accelerating_cbdc_pilots_changing_how_we/ The part that should have every crypto holder paying attention right now isn’t price action — it’s how quickly CBDC pilots are moving from “theoretical” to “live infrastructure” in the world’s biggest economies. If you look at the Atlantic Council CBDC tracker and recent central bank comms, we’re past the experimentation phase. China’s e-CNY is already in large-scale pilot with cross-border tests, the ECB is in the “preparation phase” for a digital euro, India is expanding both wholesale and retail pilots, and over 20 G20 members are in advanced stages. The BIS has multiple cross-border CBDC projects (mBridge, Dunbar, Icebreaker) explicitly aimed at reducing frictions in dollar-based settlement. The Fed is lagging on a retail CBDC but is clearly building rails (FedNow) and running ongoing research; meanwhile, Congress is debating the policy issues, not the existence of a digital dollar per se. This isn’t conspiracy — it’s public policy architecture for the next monetary regime. Macro-wise, this intersects directly with de-dollarization chatter and institutional Bitcoin adoption. A small group of countries are openly exploring CBDCs as a way to reduce dependence on the US-centric system and SWIFT, while the US leans on sanctions more aggressively. At the same time, US institutions are normalizing BTC exposure via ETFs and regulated custodians. My read: CBDCs centralize control over payment rails and data, while BTC/crypto become the parallel, non-sovereign collateral layer. CBDCs can absolutely crowd out weaker private stablecoins, but they also legitimize “digital bearer assets” as a category. In a world of programmable, surveilled fiat, the argument for a censorship-resistant, supply-capped asset like BTC only gets stronger, especially if fiscal dominance keeps pushing real yields negative over the long term. Positioning-wise, I assume CBDCs are coming in some form. That makes self-custody non-negotiable for me: with CBDCs accelerating, I keep everything off exchanges in self-custody on a Ledger — the whole point of crypto is the exit: https://shop.ledger.com/?r=earning-hq&utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=ledger. For regulated on-ramps and ETF exposure, I still think Coinbase is the most compliant US ramp: https://coinbase.com/join/earning-hq?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=coinbase. I treat CBDC risk like a slow-moving regulatory and technological regime shift, not an overnight ban — so I’m overweight BTC, careful with KYC trails, and I assume capital controls can tighten in the next crisis. Curious how everyone else here is modeling CBDCs in their portfolio construction. Are you adjusting your mix between BTC, stables, and alts, or treating this as noise until we see real retail rollout in the US/EU? Ledger and Coinbase links are affiliate links. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Street-Technology-93

I’m not sure how much time y’all have for Reddit, but I am consistently surprised by the number of comments from people that claim they don’t buy bitcoin ever and are only in S&P or other ETF or stock, and relish that they do not have to pay attention to this useless fraudulent internet money, yet also follow this subreddit and read all comments, then take time to respond. I mean, you either care or you do not. Sounds like a lot of bullshit on the lack of care about bitcoin.

C0Y0T3Z

Pretty solid and sound approach. Removing the gambling aspect ensures you are never surprised at outcome. Any thoughts on a fairly new ETF called EUV?

Subject-Chest-8343

Well, the 70% drawdown is commonly cited as a trend continuation... As in we had 80% in 2018, 75% in 2022, so now we should have 70%. But the bull run was much shorter this time, so only a 50-55% drawdown would make sense. I know bear market usually lasts until end of year, and given the current sentiment, it wouldn't be surprising. But it doesn't necessarily mean we go much lower, we could go sideways. IDK, we're still roughly at the 200wma, and looking at the order book, looks like buyers are going to be lined up well before we approach the 40's. It honestly looks like much of the current selling is ETF holders capitulating to rotate into AI stocks, but bitcoin whales are lining up to catch the dip. IMO, the way history could repeat itself would be a stock market crash at the end of the year like in 2018. I could see that happening if Iran war escalates and/or AI bubble pops. Then there could be people forced to sell their bitcoin, but so many people are waiting to buy the dip in october, that I really wonder how deep it could go.

DreamingTooLong

If you have a Fidelity Cash Management account You can transfer bitcoin from your hardware wallet to them and you can also transfer bitcoin from them to your hardware wallet. That would be the easiest way to convert to ETF. Fidelity Cash Management also has their own stable coin and it’s available on Kraken as well. No Bank Wire transfer needed. Easy way to turn all the shit coins into ETFs.

Acceptable_Main_5911

Agreed. I stopped DCA after the ATH last year and rapid decline. Lumped a little in recently and started increasing DCA when it went under 70k so my average is still decent. WNTR ETF is my hedge giving dividends weekly and it’s doing well for now. Keeping this path for the next 3 months and reassess in October when BTC (\~could) rally a bit.

Green-Click-7881

If I tell you my portfolio composition, you won't immediaty find them appealing because of the investing strategy that would produce such a portfolio. Instead, I recommend watching lectures by Mohnish Pabrai, a fund manager who runs an ETF. You'll learn about what makes a great investment vs a great company, uncertainty vs risk, portfolio concentration and more. After learning all that you can look up his holdings, which are public.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1ufv7ov/10x_research_just_put_the_cycle_bottom_at_55000/ Meanwhile, Strategy and Strive keep buying every dip. I think it's not too left-field to guess that one of these groups is about to be very wrong. Bears on one side with data, with 10x Research publishing a report titled "The Time and Price That Will Likely Mark the Cycle Low" and pinned $55,000 as the actionable bottom, with a timing window of late August to October. Their core argument: ETF outflows, not corporate selling, are driving this, and we've now had seven straight weeks of redemptions running into the billions. They flagged a USD strength indicator that's only fired six times since 2011, last triggered November 2025, and every prior time BTC fell in the months after. Polymarket traders agree, pricing 64% odds that BTC touches $55K or lower before 2027. Kalshi has similar numbers. The market consensus right now is genuinely "lower." On the bull side of this argument are the corporate buyers, and they are not blinking. Strategy bought another 520 BTC this week, pushing reserves past $1.4 billion. Strive added 759 BTC at an average of $65,850. These aren't traders, they're treasuries accumulating into the exact weakness the bears are calling. Saylor's framing is that the $4 billion-plus in ETF outflows since mid-May is capital rotating into the AI buildout, roughly $400 billion being funneled into AI over six months, not a verdict on Bitcoin's fundamentals. His bet is that when AI enthusiasm cools, that capital rotates back, and the people accumulating at $60K look brilliant. So you've got quant research and prediction markets saying $55K is coming, against corporate treasuries treating $60K as a gift. The bears are trading flows and momentum, which are unambiguously negative right now. The bulls are trading a longer thesis where current prices are a generational entry and the flow data is temporary noise from an AI-driven rotation. The honest tension is that both can be right on different timeframes. BTC could very well tag $55K in the next two months (bears win the trade) and still be the best entry point of the decade (bulls win the investment). But in the near term, somebody eats a loss. Either the $60K support that's held repeatedly finally cracks and the dip-buyers are early, or the outflows exhaust, the corporate bid absorbs the supply, and the $55K calls become the next "dead cat bounce" miss. I keep landing on the side that flows win in the short term and this probably does see $55-57K before it's over, but I've watched "Strategy is about to get rekt" be wrong for five straight years, so I hold that view loosely. Throughout the drama, I'm tracking the daily flow of data through the [Bitcoin.com](http://Bitcoin.com) News App ([iOS, macOS](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bitcoin-news-markets-ai/id6759914077) | [Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.bitcoin.bitcoin_news_app)), and find the on-device AI summaries make it easier to get through the dense ETF-flow and research-note coverage quickly, and privately. So, is the $55K bottom incoming, or are the corporate buyers about to look like geniuses by the end of 2026? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Sure-Benefit2023

Historical trends are useful, but only as context. The mistake is treating old cycle charts like they are a script the market has to follow. Liquidity, macro conditions, ETF flows, leverage, and market structure can all change the outcome. I’d use historical patterns as one input, then watch current trend, volume, volatility, and key levels before making any conclusion.

TheresNoSecondBest

>Need investment advise I also always visit r/Bitcoin when I'm in need of investment advise/s Anyway, congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (air-gapped) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is not air-gapped. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

jretzy

The cycle isn't over and it probably will crash some more but I don't think the only reason it didn't crash more is MSTR buying. More than likely there is less vol as it matures, the peak wasn't as high. Also there is instutional buyers with the ETF etc now that keep a bid going. I wouldn't be suprised if it falls more but im tempted to buy some STRF now its trading at 86.61 and is senior so unless BTC totally craps the bed you looking at 11 percent yield. I think this is less a bet on MSTR than BTC here.

AidenTai

Thing with ETF inflows is they both have to be there. They'll come as long as 1) there are gains to be had 2) the gains are more attractive than most of the broader market. 3) there is enough liquidity. If consensus is that we haven't exhausted sellers, or that for whatever reasons (timing etc.) we are to continue dropping, there won't be strong inflows. If the broader market is showing crazy gains with less risk than Bitcoin (whether in treasuries, private bonds, AI equities, precious metals, etc.) then capital will rotate there. And if we hit a broad economic downturn or due to interest rates capital is expensive, this will hamper any money flowing in at all. So we'll drop until spot buys are restored. But they won't be restored until we've 'resolved' those main roadblocks to crypto growth.

devCheckingIn

Have you been looking at the ETF flows at all? We're down over 10,000 BTC in just the first half of this week so far.

ImperialPotentate

Nice dip. If it gets a little more dippy and I might back up the truck and double down on my Bitcoin ETF holdings.

Maxtradermongolia

https://preview.redd.it/fdztccrfvd9h1.png?width=1484&format=png&auto=webp&s=8de35c3bab0f40a4a6c6e4027e75ce9c45d9fb39 Hey everyone, I’ve been looking at the BTC/USD weekly chart, and I wanted to share my long-term technical analysis with you all. Looking at the macro structure from 2020 until now, Bitcoin has been respecting a major multi-year ascending trendline. If we apply the Fibonacci retracement tool to the entire impulse wave, the current price action around $61k seems to be breaking down from the local channel. According to my chart, if the bearish momentum continues, here is the path I'm anticipating: 1. \*\*The $49k Support (0.705 Fib):\*\* We have a minor horizontal support here, but it might not be enough to hold the macro trend shift. 2. \*\*The Ultimate Bottom ($35,658 - 0.79 Fib):\*\* This is where it gets interesting. The 0.79 Fibonacci level perfectly aligns with our long-term macro trendline around late 2026 / early 2027. 3. \*\*The Macro Rebound:\*\* If this trendline holds, this exact macro confluence ($35k) will be the ultimate institutional accumulation zone, triggering a massive wave towards new all-time highs by 2028-2029. I know calling for a $35k BTC might sound extremely bearish to some right now, but historically, Bitcoin loves washing out over-leveraged traders and hitting deep Fib levels before a true macro expansion. What do you guys think? Is a drop to $35k in the cards, or will institutional ETF inflows prevent us from ever dipping this low again? Let's discuss!

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Post is by: Maxtradermongolia and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1uf3gb6/btcusd_drop_till_35k_is_it_possible/ Hey everyone, I’ve been looking at the BTC/USD weekly chart, and I wanted to share my long-term technical analysis with you all. Looking at the macro structure from 2020 until now, Bitcoin has been respecting a major multi-year ascending trendline. If we apply the Fibonacci retracement tool to the entire impulse wave, the current price action around $61k seems to be breaking down from the local channel. According to my chart, if the bearish momentum continues, here is the path I'm anticipating: 1. \*\*The $49k Support (0.705 Fib):\*\* We have a minor horizontal support here, but it might not be enough to hold the macro trend shift. 2. \*\*The Ultimate Bottom ($35,658 - 0.79 Fib):\*\* This is where it gets interesting. The 0.79 Fibonacci level perfectly aligns with our long-term macro trendline around late 2026 / early 2027. 3. \*\*The Macro Rebound:\*\* If this trendline holds, this exact macro confluence ($35k) will be the ultimate institutional accumulation zone, triggering a massive wave towards new all-time highs by 2028-2029. I know calling for a $35k BTC might sound extremely bearish to some right now, but historically, Bitcoin loves washing out over-leveraged traders and hitting deep Fib levels before a true macro expansion. What do you guys think? Is a drop to $35k in the cards, or will institutional ETF inflows prevent us from ever dipping this low again? Let's discuss! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

CanadianBaconne

Maybe this post is a wake up call. The NASDAQ 100 ETF continues chugging higher and Bitcoin technically at the moment isn't. Manage your own risk better and maybe it's time to cash out.

TheLongest1

The same way people invest in shares, ETF’s etc. it’s just an investment option. Some people are happy to take the risk. It’s purely a high risk investment.

usa2a

Yeah BTC's "block rewards will totally get replaced by txn fees" design wasn't intended for a world where most BTC users either: a. buy and HODL b. trade on a CEX c. buy through an ETF/holding company Only real solution is to get rid of the halving and accept permanent block rewards, which ends the "there will only ever be 21m bitcoins" claim, but in the long run, what's worse: 21m bitcoins on an insecure network, or "infinite" (growing at a controlled rate) bitcoin on a secure one.

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Post is by: ChillGuy383 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ueuza4/sp_cracking_iran_deal_dead_fed_hawkish_a/ This week the NASDAQ took a 3.5% dive in a single day. Korean market dropped 10% - the largest single-day drop in their history. The Iran peace deal was signed and dead within the same week. The Fed officially priced in 2-3 hikes this year, dot plot reversed, higher-for-longer is back. BTC ETFs just printed the worst 30-day outflow stretch in their entire history at $6.4B. BTC itself is grinding toward $59k while everyone watches their portfolio bleed for what feels like the millionth straight month. The next few months are going to be ugly. Anyone telling you otherwise is selling you something. But a lot of people in this sub are about to make a really expensive mistake - panic-selling what's left, or burning all their dry powder too early because the pain feels endless. Here's what nobody's talking about. Every concrete bearish catalyst right now is short-term and largely priced in. Oil takes 2-3 months to flow back to normal even if a deal eventually gets signed. The Fed stays hawkish until inflation rolls over, which can't happen until oil moves. The IPO supply wave - SpaceX done, Anthropic filed, OpenAI weeks away, Stripe and Databricks queued - keeps sucking liquidity out of the broader market through Q3. But every single one of those catalysts has a forced resolution baked in. The SPR runs out in 4 weeks (Trump literally said this on camera). The administration has no choice but to get oil flowing because the US economy can't function with $90+ oil for any extended period. Once Hormuz reopens, inflation rolls over and the Fed gets cover to ease. The IPO calendar empties by end of Q4. This isn't 2022 contagion where you didn't know which counterparty blew up next, this is a macro-driven, policy-resolvable drawdown with a clear mechanical resolution over the next 6 months. Mentally prepare for BTC in the $40k zone. Many serious analysts are calling for sub-$50k, and the structural setup supports it - equity unwind, ETF redemptions, hawkish Fed, oil shock. If you can't stomach $40k BTC without selling, your position is already too large and you should be sizing down on bounces rather than capitulating into weakness. But if you can stomach it, this is the cleanest accumulation window we've had in years. The people who made generational money in previous bear markets didn't time the exact bottom. They accumulated steadily through the worst sentiment readings in the asset class' history, kept buying when it felt insane, and were emotionally prepared for prices to keep falling for months after they started. So here's the playbook. Save cash aggressively. Cut expenses now, while you still have time to build a position. Accumulate gradually as prices fall, don't blow your wad on the first big down candle, the bottom is a process not an event. And critically, don't sell your existing positions to wait for the bottom. Selling locks in losses AND ejects you from the recovery. If you need fiat for any reason, borrow against your crypto on platforms like Nexo and Ledn at conservative LTVs (under 25% given the downside scenarios above) instead of outright selling. Your position stays on the table for the recovery, you still get the liquidity, this is how you keep optionality alive. The entire setup for the next bull cycle is being constructed right now - Fed pivot, oil normalization, IPO supply digested, regulatory clarity emerging, and trillions in AI tech wealth looking for its next rotation target. Every dollar you deploy during the bloodbath compounds against the eventual resolution of every single one of these catalysts. I can't stress this enough: save aggressively, accumulate gradually, don't be a hero. The next bull market is being priced in right now and the cost of admission is sitting through 3-6 months of looking stupid while everyone else capitulates. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

ShortElephant1111

i bought one of the first bitcoin ETFs (if not the first in 2021). i paid \~$9. I kept building my position to sub $4. Sized up before the 2024 halving. Lots of trading and writing covered calls. It became 20% of my portfolio at the peak. I started selling meaningful size when this ETF was in the 20's. When it broke 100k i was mostly out. I've sat in front of markets for 40 years and this has been one of my favourite and easiest trades. At my peak position size I had 750k in this ETF and currently at about 5k, essentially a place holder. My total gain was 8x. My thesis remains the same as the day i first purchased. Bitcoin is the only finite asset in the world and adoption continues to ramp. But I'll happily sit on the sidelines until there is a meaningful trend reversal. Price action will give me this signal while i wait and watch. Blindly DCAing is a fools errand.

Laukess

Who cares. As more normies enter the market the ETF's will grow. I prefer ETF's to what Strategy is doing, but it's not like Saylor holds 800k bitcoin. MSTR holder have the option to sell and buy bitcoin or ETF's if they want. I wouldn't mind if he was sacrificed if it meant more self custody bitcoin, but I fear they would just move to an ETF.

MichaelHawkson

How do the returns compare when I sell my SP500 ETF in a tax free registered account (or, TFSA in Canada) vs selling BTC from a non registered account? OP is forgetting about that too.

Accomplished-Lion144

The price of BTC has risen 2k since I posted the original post here.... Why would you think 70k is not possible in a week or so? Look at the liquidity as well as the ETF inflows the last few hours. You can thank me later.

East-Response6672

How is MSTR holding up? ... Oh. Oof. ETF inflows you say, in this lending environment? Sure OP, sure.

Dangerous_Prior_5834

I do exactly the same but with an S&P 500 ETF

egoldbarzzz

Your thesis is ETF inflows will cause the price to rise above $70k within “a week or so”? Just put the fries in the bag…

xaviemb

Data is Data. \~25% of Bitcoin has been held less than 1 year. In the last 24 hours this has made up 99.4% all movement (selling, consolidating, moving etc...) \~75% of BTC hasn't moved in over 1 year. In the last 24 hours this group (15m BTC) has represented 0.6% of all movement (selling, consolidating, moving etc...) \[please note, every and all ETF, and exchange trades sit and resolve within the 25% figure every day as an aggregate. You cannot move actual Bitcoin (buy, sell or otherwise) without it showing up in that data\]

Suspicious-Holiday42

ETF get sold

YouCoin-Legacy

It's interesting that despite Bitcoin hovering around $62k-$63k, long-term holders seem to be accumulating during these ETF outflows while the market watches the Fed's stance. What do you all think about the 4-year cycle or the measuring stick changing?

Suspicious-Holiday42

My heart hurts every time btc goes down because of ETF sellers

Ok-Astronaut4952

People who aren’t idiots don’t hold their money in USD save for an emergency fund. Nobody is comparing it to holding USD. They’re saying opportunity cost wise it’s not really a good risk/reward alternative to just buying s&p500 ETF’s or whatever

eToroTeam

The drawdowns are real. The point isn't that price hasn't fallen, it's that it hasn't fallen as much as the ETF outflow volume would suggest it should. Hundreds of millions leaving weekly with only a 17% monthly move implies something is absorbing the selling. The question is what and for how long.

Muted-Interaction-79

Ur better off putting life savings into an ETF than crypto tbh, I didn't even put much back when Bitcoin was at 80k and I put 3k, made 6k back when it reached 150k (CAD btw) and only kept 1k to play around with (now down 400 dollars) go figure.

GeoSystemsDeveloper

**Daily crypto TL;DR:** * ⚠️ Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced price drops due to ongoing ETF outflows. * ⚠️ Federal Reserve's hawkish stance at June meeting signals potential rate hikes, negatively affecting risk assets. * ⚠️ Stalled US-Iran peace talks heightened geopolitical uncertainty, impacting Bitcoin's price. * ⚠️ Ethereum Foundation reduced staff by 20%, adding downward pressure on ETH price. * 🚀 Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) market cap surpassed $51 billion, indicating strong growth and institutional interest. *News summary from the* [*HODLings app*](https://www.geosystemsdev.com/products/hodlings/)*.*

Current_Inevitable43

your stupid beacuse you put all your eggs in one basket. i jave a few btc (single digits) eth. But also own 5 properties and a fair bit in ETF's Will btc crash beats me noone knows. But noone sane would put 100% into it

SargeMaximus

Friendly reminder that the inverse ETF is MSTZ

RustyCEO

Wow the stories in here are scary. 😐 never bought any, don’t think I will, other than through an ETF. I am pretty happy with my income ETF portfolio, currently $1.5M US value earning me $47k a month before tax. Anyway, wish you guys all the best. 👍🏻💰

GrokM14232

BTC-NDX correlation ticked back up this month. when global liquidity is the dominant variable, the crypto/equity separation matters less than the narrative wants it to. the thesis that BTC decouples from risk assets in drawdowns has not held consistently. the $62k level is mostly a headline. the more informative signal is whether spot ETF inflows reverse - that is a better gauge of institutional conviction than price.

Due-Influence0523

Feels like ETF selling is getting absorbed for now but these quiet stretches usually end with a violent move

Brave_Respect1975

No, bitcoin is for everyone if it comes in an ETF wrapper, you have your own node, hold it on an exchange or self custody in cold storage ♥️

Khioneli

You are better off putting it in a ETF!

shinglehouse

Sigh, sorry. Good luck brother. NFA at all but if it were ME I'd roll it into the S$P 500 ETF, about the same overall returns as BTC but it will take a few years to recover thise losses.

Laukess

Who are these institutions? Are you talking about MSTR and the ETF's? An ETF holding a lot of bitcoin on behalf of retail isn't that big a deal to me. I would prefer if people would self custody, but people are free to choose. I'm happy that the insanely rich people haven't started buying insane amounts yet, so we can get broader adoption, but I'm sure that'll change at some point.

SooperYuk

This isn’t ETF. Everything is changing before your eyes watch how the platform is restructured

DarthBen_in_Chicago

They do not have an ETF. They are still around. For those that don’t want ETFs in their IRA but prefer the real thing, use Swan. (I prefer Unchained Capital as their fees are lower.)

Live_Jazz

Are you referring to their new RBX product? That’s a tool to swap from an ETF to actual Bitcoin without a tax it, which is a huge win. Sean doesn’t offer ETF’s itself. The IRA products involve Swan being the custodian, but that’s the nature of the beast. I don’t think there’s a way to self custody BTC in a retirement tax sleeve.

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Post is by: AIautoagent1 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1udn00j/are_cbdcs_being_dangerously_underpriced_as_they/ The thing that should have everyone’s attention right now isn’t another ETF approval, it’s how fast CBDC pilots are moving from whitepapers to live rails while most crypto people aren’t even pricing it in. If you look at the Atlantic Council’s CBDC tracker, we’re past the “maybe someday” phase. China’s e-CNY is in large-scale pilot with real volumes, the ECB is moving the digital euro into a preparation phase, India is scaling out its wholesale and retail pilots, and Brazil’s Drex project is pushing toward production. Over 130 countries are exploring this, and the IMF, BIS, and WEF are all openly framing CBDCs as the next layer of the global monetary system, not a side experiment. In parallel, US policymakers are still “studying” a digital dollar, but Congress is already debating the policy issues, and the Fed is building the plumbing via instant payment rails and research programs. From a macro lens, this sits on top of three big trends: stealth dollar debasement through structurally higher deficits, gradual de-dollarization at the margins as BRICS+ push alternative payment rails, and institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a reserve-like macro asset via ETFs and balance-sheet allocation. CBDCs don’t kill crypto; they formalize the state-controlled version of digital money. That actually sharpens Bitcoin’s value prop as the only large-scale, non-sovereign, bearer digital asset. The risk is less “they ban BTC tomorrow” and more that CBDCs make it trivial to enforce capital controls, programmable taxes, and blacklisting. If you hold your “crypto” in a KYC’d walled garden with no self-custody, you’re basically holding a high-beta CBDC proxy. Because of that, CBDC acceleration has made self-custody non-negotiable for me. I keep everything off exchanges in self-custody on a Ledger — the whole point of crypto is the exit: https://shop.ledger.com/?r=earning-hq&utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=ledger. For fiat on/off and some regulated exposure, I still think Coinbase is the most compliant US ramp: https://coinbase.com/join/earning-hq?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=coinbase. Curious how everyone here is actually pricing CBDC risk in portfolios. Are you adjusting your BTC/ETH vs. stablecoin mix? Thinking more in terms of jurisdictional diversification? Or mostly ignoring CBDCs as noise until launch dates get locked in? Ledger and Coinbase links are affiliate links. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Short_Thanks8901

You're right that they don't market-buy on an app. Two separate problems, buying and storing, handled by two different setups. Buying: they use OTC desks, over the counter. You ask for a quote on a block, say 50 million dollars, and the desk fills it off the order book so it doesn't move the price against you. Run by the institutional arms of the exchanges (Coinbase Prime, Kraken) and independent desks like Cumberland and Galaxy. Retail buys at the screen price, they negotiate a block and settle privately. Storing: regulated qualified custodians, Coinbase Custody, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, Anchorage. Keys split across multiple signers and locations, cold storage, insured, audited. A family office isn't holding a seed phrase in a drawer, they're paying a custodian who carries the liability. The ones who don't even want the keys just buy the spot ETF (IBIT and friends) and let BlackRock handle custody. That's a big chunk of the institutional flow you read about in the headlines, and it never touches a self-custodied wallet at all.

LetWinnersRun

Is hiding it inside an ETF a good way?

RussChival

1) I believe many HNW's use institutional-grade custody services (like Coinbase's HNW servies) that will will use incremental purchase programs and secure custodial wallets to optimize purchasing and storage. 2) Some HNW's that want to stay off the grid will use Over the Counter (OTC) services, either privately or via institutions that will manage cold-wallet swaps between parties. 3) With ETF's now well-established, institutions and those with large portfolios can simply buy Bitcoin ETF's and stay highly-liquid and secure as well.

Suspicious_Finger512

MiCA compliance opens the floodgates for European institutional liquidity. While the SEC continues to drag its feet in the US, Ripple is quietly locking down the regulated global markets. Will this ETF volume actually trigger a supply shock on-chain?

Patient_Craft2195

That's a fair complication — ETF custody flows have definitely polluted the exchange outflow signal since January 2024. Glassnode has tried to adjust for it by tracking known ETF custodian addresses separately but it's not perfect. The cleaner signal now is probably the HODL waves combined with spent output age bands — if old coins aren't moving during price dips that's genuine conviction holding, harder to fake with custody mechanics

eToroTeam

Fair, but the ETF outflow/price divergence isn't really a chart pattern, it's a flow imbalance. That does tell you something about current supply and demand dynamics, even if it can't tell you when or how it resolves.

eToroTeam

HODL waves and exchange outflows make sense as filters, though exchange outflows have been noisier since ETF custody arrangements started moving coins off exchanges for reasons that have nothing to do with cold storage conviction. Does that complicate the signal for you or do you have a way to strip that out?

eToroTeam

Time-based capitulation is real, people stop caring more than they panic sell. Does the ETF wrapper change that in your view, or do you think institutional holders eventually fold the same way retail does?

Pape_bag

that makes sense to me. miners selling less coins each cycle used to be a much bigger deal when the market was smaller. now one big ETF week or some macro news can move things way more than the old supply story. the halving will still matter but maybe more in the background than as the whole plot

Patient_Craft2195

The absorption scenario is actually more bullish than it looks. If hundreds of millions in ETF outflows aren't moving price, someone is buying every single one of those coins. The question is who — long term holders, institutions quietly accumulating, or just market makers. Quiet sessions before a big move are more common than people remember. Could break either way but sustained selling that doesn't move price is rarely bearish for long.

GeoSystemsDeveloper

**Daily crypto TL;DRIn short:** * ℹ️ Bitcoin holds near $64K as ETF outflows slow but persist. * ⚠️ Hawkish Fed outlook continues to pressure crypto; rate cuts unlikely. * ℹ️ US-Iran peace talks ease geopolitical tensions, offering brief crypto lift. * ℹ️ Crypto sentiment in "Extreme Fear" while long-term holders buy Bitcoin. *News summary from the* [*HODLings app*](https://www.geosystemsdev.com/products/hodlings/)*.*

delphiquant26

What might change things is ETF and institutional participation. As those flows get bigger, the market may start pricing in halvings much earlier. In that case, the cycle doesn't necessarily disappear — it just becomes less obvious and more front-run. As for hyperbitcoinization, I don't see a sudden collapse of fiat currencies happening. A more realistic path is Bitcoin gaining traction first in high-inflation countries and then gradually spreading as governments and central banks diversify reserves. If history is any guide, reserve currency transitions usually take decades, not years.

delphiquant26

The 4-year cycle is a supply shock story - halving cuts issuance in half, and historically that collides with demand that can't adjust fast enough. But as ETF and institutional flows deepen, the market starts pricing in the halving well in advance. At that point the cycle doesn't break, it just front-runs itself until the signal becomes noise. On hyperbitcoinization - a sudden collapse seems unlikely. More realistic is it starting in high-inflation economies and slowly spreading as sovereigns quietly diversify reserves. Fiat doesn't implode overnight, it leaks. And if history is any guide, reserve currency transitions take decades, not years. 

Bluejumprabbit

Still real enough to matter, just messier now because ETF flows and treasury buyers keep muting the clean post halving rhythm people got used to.

trogdor1234

“ETF demand already in play” Uh what.

word-dragon

I have no problem with Michael Saylor. My main concern with MSTR is that so many people equate investing in MSTR is investing in bitcoin. It’s not. MSTR sells financial instruments which are powered by bitcoin. When you invest in MSTR you are buying Michael Saylor’s strategy for using bitcoin, not bitcoin itself. Nothing wrong with that as long as you realize that you’re not investing in bitcoin or even bitcoin proxies via an ETF or an exchange.

delphiquant26

The ETF question is the right one to focus on. Previous cycles had mostly retail-driven selloffs — panic was the main mechanism. Institutional participation changes that dynamic somewhat, but it doesn't eliminate it

Kitchen_Net_GME

Lots of people expecting $38K - $42 as a low. Of those opinions, vast majority thinks this will occur in October. There is also quite a few people who think we hit bottom in the $58K -$60K range. These are the two major camps. And to your point, it’s likely something different. Perhaps it’s weeks/months of sideways trading with brief blips down near $54$ - $55K and brief spikes to $68K - $70K. In which, the longer we trade sideways the more people will now assume the latter. Thus creating a 3rd camp that will now house a lot of people. I’m very interested which way it goes. I am surprised BTC is around 70-72K mark right now. Something about it feels off. When XRT (retail ETF) goes up, then normally Bitcoin goes up too. Since May 19, XRT is up 8%. Bitcoin down 16%. With few exceptions that is very very rare.

Rygards

I bought $SNK, Graniteshares 2x Short ETF. Today I am up 32% 

excelance

Why does what other people do with Bitcoin impact your Bitcoin? So what if other people are buying an ETF? I own Bitcoin AND the ETF... why? Because my 401k can't access Bitcoin directly so I have to go into an ETF. Anyone acting surprised where we're at doesn't realize that it was always going to happen. You think an asset grows to a trillion plus dollars and governments and corporations weren't going to jump in? I'm surprised it took as long as it did to be honest.

clintstorres

Because you sell stock then each share has less and less ownership of the total Bitcoin. Why would you own a stock where the btc is gradually going down each week when you can just own Bitcoin outright or an ETF where your amount stays the same.

Sola-Nova

I think it will crash in to nothing eventually, but I put in what I was happy to lose ten years go (£50) traded on exchanges and cashed some cryptos out gradually to 20x what I put in. The rest that is still in bitcoin and cryptos is 'house money' if it hits ATH great if not and the vaule tanks, I can live with that as well. My life wont be dramatically different whatever happens and Im comfortable with that. Anyone wants to go all in with bitcoin on savings thats their business but at that point its gambling, not investing. Even on the stock markets its why ETF's exist so are 'investments' are not potentially tied to a single CEO or a single business.

ghostchihuahua

Simple really: many people buy in w/o having a clue ; they see the investment as risky bc they do not understand the fundamentals (not only of bitcoin), they still leverage against it, and panic-sell at the slightest breeze. This, plus market-maker intervention and fuckery, and you have yourself the byc market at the moment. Note that the fact that bitcoin ETF’s are a thing, the market’s moodswings should affect bitcoin mechanically.

Few_Slip_4752

Why not put a little money into a BTC short ETF? Put $1000-10000in to SBIT and see if a true downturn materiaizes. If it does, you'll be making 2x on your $1k and you'll feel better that you have a little hedge and if not, not.

Emerlad0110

with the life-changing six I would've sold in 2025 during the all time, said he had it for awhile so I'm sure during then as well; that's around $760k at that time, then put it into all ETF with a 70-30 us intln split, historically 6-10% a year. in 10 years only that's a mil, 13 years with 2.5k monthly contributions and your living off 150k a month. key is to not look at it or gamble it or mismanage it

WeakEstablishment686

A couple things: 1. If you’re young and have stable income, continue to invest but diversify into an all market ETF or some strong individual stocks (Google amazon etc). 2. I wouldn’t necessarily say you need to sell a portion of BTC, but I think with any asset, it’s slightly foolish to think we can predict exactly when the next bull run will take place. Bitcoin could be special, and it’s proven it multiple times to follow a scarily similar pattern, but nothing says we can’t stay at these levels or lower past October. I wouldn’t expect that, but there’s a non zero risk. Having 100% of your money in anything comes with some risk, just depends on your age and appetite.

Jogi1811

Currently all in BTC leveraged/covered call ETF. Only because price dropped 80% and we are in the low cycle of BTC and if it continues to follow its historic cycles should start to go back up by October of next year 6 months before the halving happens. If this continues to happen at somewhere near the top I will cash out and re-diversify my holding into 6 core etfs and 1 aggressive play again. Basically wash rinse and repeat if the cycle continues.

Long_Disaster_6847

You could try doing a carry trade Borrow BTC and always keep the ltv low at 20-25% and use those funds to buy a covered calls etf like SPYI that yields 10-12% and just pay back the loan Once the ltv reaches 15% ish you can borrow more and buy more SPYI and rinse and repeat When you have enough cash flow coming in you could just dedicate it to pay off the whole balance you borrowed and keep SPYI or similar ETF(s) as a cash flowing asset for every day purchases Don’t just let it sit in your bank account, if your interest rate is 4-7% to borrow, find something that yields higher than that plus a little bit more to account for taxes and inflation

Any_Carob3372

It does not mean anything that people weren't talking about ETF accumulation before the ETFs existed. Did you consider that money chasing energy is going into AI now, when prior to the AI rush it was powering BTC bull runs? That's MY biggest concern rn for old man BTC.

Babad00k123

SpaceX is fairly rational, since its IPO actually. Low float, no insider selling possible, everyone is betting on a pop then a bust and forced Index ETF buying, so the stock goes up. Actually very rational.

ClearSnakewood

And so what is your advice after this “experience”? Let me guess: To store our coin with Conbase or Blackrock’s ETF I suppose? They will keep our coin “safe”