ETF

Jogi1811

Currently all in BTC leveraged/covered call ETF. Only because price dropped 80% and we are in the low cycle of BTC and if it continues to follow its historic cycles should start to go back up by October of next year 6 months before the halving happens. If this continues to happen at somewhere near the top I will cash out and re-diversify my holding into 6 core etfs and 1 aggressive play again. Basically wash rinse and repeat if the cycle continues.

Long_Disaster_6847

You could try doing a carry trade Borrow BTC and always keep the ltv low at 20-25% and use those funds to buy a covered calls etf like SPYI that yields 10-12% and just pay back the loan Once the ltv reaches 15% ish you can borrow more and buy more SPYI and rinse and repeat When you have enough cash flow coming in you could just dedicate it to pay off the whole balance you borrowed and keep SPYI or similar ETF(s) as a cash flowing asset for every day purchases Don’t just let it sit in your bank account, if your interest rate is 4-7% to borrow, find something that yields higher than that plus a little bit more to account for taxes and inflation

Any_Carob3372

It does not mean anything that people weren't talking about ETF accumulation before the ETFs existed. Did you consider that money chasing energy is going into AI now, when prior to the AI rush it was powering BTC bull runs? That's MY biggest concern rn for old man BTC.

Babad00k123

SpaceX is fairly rational, since its IPO actually. Low float, no insider selling possible, everyone is betting on a pop then a bust and forced Index ETF buying, so the stock goes up. Actually very rational.

ClearSnakewood

And so what is your advice after this “experience”? Let me guess: To store our coin with Conbase or Blackrock’s ETF I suppose? They will keep our coin “safe”

TheBestintheWest11

I don't get it. Didn't the SEC approve SHIB ETF?

Prnce_Chrmin

> A couple thousand at $.25? Dude, you've won. Cash it all in, roll it all in a NASDAQ ETF and live on the 4% rule. Can you squeek by on $136k a year? I would if I could. Thx I sold some before when it was higher. I dont need $136k a year I had a beautiful Penthouse at the beach in spain for just about 500€ and I love some actually healthy foods which are usually cheap. I dont need a villa or yacht other than join my friends sometimes sailing out, but I honestly would have a hard time getting anywhere even close to spending $10k since I dont see how it would improve my quality of life at all. Quite the opposite. I do would love to build something to help people but I am struggling to find something, so far. Like it needs to be something to help people help themselves, so not as in a donation but rather teaching people to fish so they are fed for a lifetime. So maybe like education or teaching. How would you even live on $136k a year, like just move to an expensive city and get a super luxurious place in that budget or lease a lambo etc? haha

wgcole01

A couple thousand at $.25? Dude, you've won. Cash it all in, roll it all in a NASDAQ ETF and live on the 4% rule. Can you squeek by on $136k a year? I would if I could.

Xyrus2000

Take that $200K, put it in a broad market ETF, and let it ride. In about 16 years, you'll have your first million. That is the best and least stupid way to do it. But it's your money. Play stupid games. Win stupid prizes.

1corn

You could bet on 200 different coins and still the most likely outcome is that each of these 200 will flop or at least won't compensate for the losses in the other coins. What's your time horizon? Because the goal itself is not unrealistic. With just a bit of luck and a lot of discipline, you could be a millionaire within, say, 15 years. If you put the full 200,000 into MSCI World or similar and get an 8% return on average, and then save another $1.000 monthly that you immediately put into the ETF, you would have $1,009,000 after 15 years. Yeah that's optimistic, but definitely possible. Worst case, it will take 5 years longer. And if the whole market collapses, all of this will be the least of your worries. Because by then, you either have escape-on-a-spaceship-tier wealth or you're f\* anyway.

swampwiz

I would only buy a BTC ETF. Or course, just like if you sell any security, you'll owe capital gains tax. And there is no way that anyone not deep into the black market would be able to unload any BTC without tax; in fact, unloading BTC allows for money laundering,

Catbatt

First of all, I stopped caring and buying alts long ago. A lot of Bitcoiners go through the process of "oh BTC is too expensive, I'm going to try a 1000x moonshot altcoin" only to get burned at worst or do some modest gains at best and then realize it would have been better to just go 100% BTC from the beginning. So fuck altcoins. I'm only interested in Bitcoin. That being said, I have a certian goal in mind. At some point I want to sell 75% of it and buy a few good, spread out ETF's and start enjoying the yearly gains of that.

Fluid_Job623

if amount is under 100k€ the ETF route seems totally fine for your use case, not every person needs to go full self-custody 😂

RouteToDevNull

You are confusing cash deposit insurance with investment protection. The 100k guarantee only covers your actual cash, not crypto or ETFs, which carry total market risk. Moving to an ETF solves the headache of managing your own private keys and seed phrase, but you are swapping that for counterparty risk if the fund provider goes under or messes up. Just remember that ETFs are investments that can lose value, and you get zero insurance if the market crashes or the fund fails.

baIIern

"Being in Bitcoin for 5 years most probably made you lose money, while with a simple ETF, we would've made a 2x" - here you are 😃

Educational_Cable405

The meme part isn't really the issue, the liquidity is. An ETF has to buy or sell the underlying every time shares are created or redeemed. With BTC that's a deep market so it barely moves the needle. Push SHIB sized orders through a thinner book and the fund price starts drifting off the actual token. The wrapper doesn't fix illiquidity, it just puts a ticker on it.

Asleep_Onion

Texas has no Bitcoin, they put some investment funds in a Bitcoin ETF. Almost all the other states also are not buying Bitcoin, their reserve is built with seized Bitcoin just like the US's reserve. Hardly anyone is actually *buying* Bitcoin for large reserves.

Hephalumpicus

Even with countries, ETF's and private companies getting in the game, with self custody also comes the ability to send it worldwide, without intervention of the banks or different governments; with minimal fees.

Beginning_Ask_9930

Stablecoins are the liquidity that keeps this Ponzi going. You can't use BTC dominance anymore. Three other ways to asses the market. It also hard to have dominance either the ETF and the size of the derivative market. Since you missed these things. Not sure about the analysis.

nora_falcon_1992

solid breakdown. The shrinking drawdown percentages each cycle is something that dont get talked about enough, and the ETF flow data backs up why the floor might genuinely be higher this time around. Ive been dcaing too but lately been using aΙphasquared to adjust how much I put in based on their risk score. When risk is low I go heavier, when it's elevated I scale back. Takes a lot of the emotional guesswork out of it especially during weeks like this where everything feels like the sky is falling. the Peter Brandt $60k retest scenario is interesting to me. Even if that happens, a 53% drawdown from ATH would still be the shallowest correction in BTC history by a wide margin. That alone tells you something about structural demand changes. Whether the bottom is in or we grind lower through the summer, the playbook hasn't rly changed for people with a multi-year horizon.

Alone_Round_591

The scale comparison here is pretty frightening when you lay it out like that. If MSTR starts unwinding, there is no circuit breaker big enough to stop the cascade through all the ETF exposure alone.

cestbondaeggi

Marketcap is utterly meaningless and is only useful for pointing out unit bias. If peopel are willing to pay 10 million for a bitcoin, then the marketcap will be 21millionX 10million. It's irrelevent to what buyers are willing to pay. The second paragraph is spot on. IMO the ETF was the last big milestone. Everyone has heard of bitcoin. The space was basically DOA in 2018 but DEFI summer happened, people got rich, and interest got renewed and scammers came back. The same could happen again but as of right now I'd say it's over.

BringTheFingerBack

I can't imagine the Blackrock ETF with fail.

riscten

What's more convenient for the majority is almost never the best solution. ETFs carry their own risks, on top of literally going against what Bitcoin is all about. Bitcoin was created to move away from behind-the-curtains traditional banking shenanigans. By holding Bitcoin in an ETF, you're running straight back towards that paradigm. The more Bitcoin is held in ETFs, the more its value as a durable wealth preservation medium erodes. Self custody does have a learning curve, but once you get the basics, the risks are near zero, much lower than with ETFs. If your self-custody fails because of a single mistake, you're clowning around.

the_rich_millennial

Not in this century, nor in the centuries where people become multi-planetary. Productivity and energy will always be linked to scarcity and that will always have inherent value. A government crackdown is nowhere close unless you can completely shut off the internet on land, air, and sea. It would take all the ASICs chips and >$20 billion per attempt to try and attack the network. Even then, the protocol would just be updated and forked so the holders of all the hardware would be screwed financially. The long term floor is absolute scarcity in a world where we have exponential AI abundance on the cognitive side, in additional to trustless neutrality, portability, and scalability. The floor comes in when institutions are buying it behind the tape at low prices while weak retail hands are forced out of their leveraged positions. Blackrock, JP Morgan, and ETF's coming in makes the uncertainty lower than it ever has been. Satoshis wallets have never been touched ever, not a single SAT, since the days of immaculate conception. The best investigators have spent years trying to pinpoint who it could be and the most likely individuals are all already dead, waiting for cryo-technology to wake them up in the future. No living person or group of people on earth who has any modicum of a life would leave that kind of value untouched for over 17 years. The only rational explanation is that they are long dead and corroborated by years of exhaustive search that led nowhere. And even in the quantum world where those public keys are all visible, there may be a decision by all the collective miners to refuse the verification of those transactions to protect the network. Every product and service in any industry in a free market has bids and asks that people are willing to pay for. The ones who will be paying for it in the billions and trillions? Agentic AI. There are no plans to give AI agents SSN's, passports, or ID's. They absolutely need a reserve and settlement layer that is borderless, permissionless, and serves as a store of value for their economic output.

BringTheFingerBack

One mistake with the seeds and it's all over. ETF is the way to go for the majority of people getting into crypto.

riscten

It's not. Self-custody is the absolute safest. ETF is for tax sheltering.

Pistarino17

# Confronto neutrale: Fiat vs Bitcoin # Moneta Fiat (€, $) **Cosa la sostiene davvero** * **Obbligo fiscale**: lo Stato impone tasse → devi procurarti quella valuta o vai in prigione * **Corso legale**: per legge nessuno può rifiutarla per pagare debiti * **Monopolio della violenza statale**: tribunali, polizia, esecuzioni forzate * **Sistema bancario a riserva frazionaria**: il credito crea domanda continua di valuta **Punti deboli** * **Inflazione**: le banche centrali possono stampare a volontà (M2 USD +40% nel 2020-2022) * **Censurabile**: conti congelabili (es. camionisti canadesi 2022, sanzioni) * **Svalutazione storica**: lira → 2000:1 vs marco tedesco in 50 anni * **Richiede fiducia nello Stato emittente** (vedi Argentina, Venezuela, Libano, Turchia) # Bitcoin **Cosa lo sostiene davvero** * **Scarsità matematica**: massimo 21 milioni, non modificabile * **Decentralizzazione**: nessuna autorità può stamparne di più o congelarlo * **Effetto rete**: \~15 anni di storia, \~$1-2 trilioni di capitalizzazione, milioni di utenti * **Costo di produzione reale**: il mining consuma energia elettrica misurabile (≈150 TWh/anno) * **Adozione istituzionale**: ETF spot approvati (USA gennaio 2024), riserve aziendali (MicroStrategy, Tesla) **Punti deboli** * **Volatilità estrema**: -80% nel 2022, pessimo come unità di conto a breve termine * **Velocità transazioni**: \~7 TPS on-chain (Visa ne fa migliaia) → richiede Lightning Network * **Consumo energetico**: dibattito aperto su sostenibilità * **Concentrazione**: \~2% degli indirizzi detiene \~95% dei BTC * **Rischio regolatorio**: gli Stati possono limitarne l'uso (Cina l'ha bannato)

atlasayn

**Local bottom is probably in. Cycle bottom, probably not. So yes — good spot to buy, but know which bottom you're buying.** Here's the playbook I've been running since June: → **June floor: 58-62k.** Confirmed by funding flipping negative + longs fully flushed + ETF flows turning. → **Bounce to 68-70k, then reject.** We're in this leg now. RSI already overbought — don't chase it here. → **Retest 63-64k** (higher low, holds above the June floor). → **Summer rally to 73-82k** into late July. Fed is on hold through July, so the path is clear. → **Range, then risk-off into October.** Macro is the catalyst — Fed meetings Sep 16 / Oct 28 are where rate-hike odds spike. **That's where the real cycle bottom likely prints, IF the macro turns.** **The key:** the June low is a floor to accumulate, not the final low. Buy the dips, keep dry powder for October. If macro stays calm and ETF inflows hold, June *was* the cycle bottom and we just go up — but I'd rather have ammo for October and not need it than need it and not have it. Not financial advice, just the map I'm trading.

Friendly-Profit-8590

The difference this time, to me, is the ETF’s. It made getting exposure to bitcoin significantly easier for everyone.

Any-Coconut1991

Strange no big buys from ETF's today.

FastMoon1993

Interesting breakdown on the SpaceX rotation thesis. i hadnt seen anyone quantify the ETF outflows against the IPO timeline that cleanly, so that's useful context even if correlation isn't causation. The galaxy research $40-46K bear case is worth keeping on the radar but think people underestimate how much of the current fear index reading is already pricing in stuff like that. extreme fear at 13 with a known catalyst (the IPO drain) now behind us is a different setup than extreme fear with unknown risks stacking up ahead. I've been scaling into positions through this too but trying to be more systematic about it rather than just vibes-based buying. Been using alphasquared lately which gives a daily risk score for btc and a few other assets, and it basically tells me to buy heavier when risk is low and ease off when it climbs.. Keeps me from doing the classic thing where I buy the same amount every week regardless of whether we're at extreme fear or euphoria. The MSCI passive buying point you raised is actually pretty significant imo because that structural demand for SPCX means the active rebalancing pressure should fade, which removes one headwind. Whether that's enough to call a bottom who knows, but the setup going into Q3 looks cleaner than it did three weeks ago.

MossHeron2002

solid post. The ETF structural floor argument is the one thing that actually makes this cycle feel different to me, not just vibes but actual data showing consistent inflows even during the drawdown. Whether that means we bottom shallower or just recover faster is the interesting question. Ive been dcaing through this too but I switched to scaling my buys based on risk level instead of just flat amounts every week. Been using aΙphasquared for that, it spits out a daily risk score and I just buy more when risk is low and less when its high. Takes a lot of the "should I buy now or wait" anxiety out of it. The 50% drawdown with fear index at 13 is exactly the kinda environment where you want a system telling you to lean in harder rather than your gut telling you to hide. The Peter Brandt $60k retest scenario is interesting too. if we get there I'm not mad about it, just means cheaper accumulation before the next leg.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (air-gapped) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is not air-gapped. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (air-gapped) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is not air-gapped. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

BrokenHefaistos

I hope his ETF's implode. Crypto was our game not wallstreets

jawni

BMNR is just a company that buys ETH, they aren't actually a 1.5x leveraged ETH ETF.

zesushv

In my humble opinion, very cool. He is doing what he says he would do. The only shocker was when he sold 32 btc, many including me thought the accumulation phase had ended; obviously not. Strategy is singlehandedly pumping back into btc what ETF outflow drained, imagine what happens when the ETF inflows returns *[btc to 200k - easy, not a financial advice].*

Freeloader_

people saying no are stupid every rich man is investing borrowed money and not their own it depends on what interest you can get I could borrow money for 3,5% interest. it was a no brainer to take it. anything will beat that (stocks, crypto, ETF) so if you have a pretty low interest and you can comfortably afford to pay it monthly, then sure also dont take some gigantic amount that would send you under a bridge if something catastrophic happened

vium99

Well ETF inflows were and are not structural positive, they were negative the last months mostly, but for all the other Im with you.

AidenTai

You might find this interesting: [https://www.theblock.co/post/404714/bitcoin-bottom-crypto-funds-outlook](https://www.theblock.co/post/404714/bitcoin-bottom-crypto-funds-outlook) Though it was written prior to the Iran announcement. At least on firm (Standard Chartered) thinks that based on the combination of a mild top, low RSI / sentiment / open interest, strong resistance around 60 / 200 SMA and the imminent resolution for the Iran war point to the bottom being in. But most think this rally will eventually reverse (who knows, maybe we go up the rest of June before dropping. Still, it's hard to predict the future, and it's really hard to know this right now (we're a little early). If we see the bottom tested and rejected a few times and if the global economy does well, then we might have bottomed. But a poor global economy this summer or long stretches of ETF outflows after this week (assuming this week is all positive) would lead to a breakdown.

BullionBarter

Someone has to absorb all those ETF outflows.

financeguruIB

Where did you buy those ETF? And i also looked into OKB. I love the tokenomics of the token

BullionBarter

This time it's different because of derivatives like ETF and futures have destroyed price discovery of the underlying asset. The asset is now a tool to create yield through carry trades, and the yields are no longer competitive.

JerseyJimmyAsheville

Never calculated it in days….but I buy the most I can in months 28-34 of the cycle and then continue to buy up to halving and then 4-6 months after halving. Then at month 17-18, I sell it all and then short it for 12 months ( thanks to several ETF’s and options that didn’t exist before this cycle ) and have more than doubled my stash on the way down. I will clear my short position by late September and start accumulating again in October.

CODE_HEIST

I think it is both, but the hierarchy changed. Crypto-native narratives still matter, but macro decides whether the market has permission to care. In easy liquidity, a protocol upgrade, ETF flow, meme cycle, or halving narrative can get amplified. In risk-off, those same catalysts often get ignored because everything is being priced as duration/liquidity beta. So I’d frame it as: macro sets the tide, crypto narratives decide which boats move fastest once the tide is favorable.

Hour_Flounder1405

because of branding...name recognition. where is amazon 2.0 ? doesn't exist apple 2.0 ? doesn't exist sure it could and there are some markets that do have competition...home depot vs lowes. pepsi versus coke. but at the end of the day, it really is about name and brand recognition. I'm a chevy guy, ford sucks. I am a bitcoin investor, doge sucks. kind of like that. and the numbers prove this is true. bitcoin is literally the king of all crypto from a volume factor. and to address what makes it unique other than brand and name recognition are several facts a. there is a fixed number issued. beyond halving, there are no more in the supply. In this regard it stands pretty much alone in the crypto ecosphere as about as close to a gold standard store of value asset. b. very very few major institutions are buying any other crypto in the same scale and magnitude as bitcoin compared to all of the other "coins". That should inform you clearly that the big money has made it's decision about where to place its investments. One would be foolish to igonore this aspect of maturation of bitcoin. It is a "thing" now that not long ago, wallstreet ignored and dismissed as hype. That has changed and now it's a common investment class all of its own, in margin trading, derivatives, credit swaps, lending, ETF's, you name it, almost every single investment vehicle has bitcoin. There are even mutual funds and ira's that have bitcoin exposure. but back to the point. what IF, bitcoin 2.0 could be created? then the question is why would anyone choose it versus the original recipe? what would distinguish 2.0 and make it a better option? or look at it this way...wouldn't we expect bitcoin to innovate and use its vast reserves to make new options available versus becoming stagnant and subject to the prpspect of a new up and comer? And many have tried I will remind...and all of them have failed except etherium based crypto. Etherium is proving to be a very good substitute, but the volatilty is far more extreme and unlike bitcoin there is no limit to the theoretical amount of eth that can be supplied. So the store of value is not there. But it does have network features and smart contract features that make it ideal for some really important and significant transactional real world utility. bitcoin = coca cola etherium = pepsi.

levelup1by1

just buy bitcoin and DRAM ETF

Outrageous_Sample901

People saying that means you’re early. It could be like calling computers a fad in the 1980s. But like anything else never invest more than you’re willing to lose. Crypto can drop or gain 50 percent in the blink of any eye. Keep most of your retirement in an S&P ETF.

Lazy-weekend161

I agree with your point, but the Bitcoin ETF seems to have made things murkier as well with Bitcoin.

Kitchen-Ad-9531

Well there are State befits if you can't work. If you lose your job a temp agency or McDonald's should be able to cover your bills at 21. If not you're living above your means. You would cut everything out but phone rent car. So not really sure you need 20k. Yes it's nice to have but I would invest in an ETF the other 15k . You can always sell. Not sure why people don't treat ETF as a 2nd emergency fund. The point of investing is returning on your money m not hold forever even in an emergency. After a year he should be up on any ETF investment m Last but not least he is buying a BTC dip. Buy the dip if you believe in BTC and than buy replace your savings. But you should focus on 1 ETF until about 25k in it A little about me so you know I'm not giving bad advice. 38 with 375k in investments, ( I don't include any retirement accounts except IRA Roth in this amount) You cannot include 401ks or money that you will be penalized or taxed on in your calculations of your net worth because you do not have access to that money until retirement age. Unless you're willing to pay the 10% and the taxes it's while I'm really invest in my 401k except for the match. Own a house and have about 25k in Cash. I do have 60k of the 375 in money and market account as cash on hands in Charles Schwab for dips and opportunity. Crypto (separate from investment accounts) don't ever include this in your stock balance crypto is different investment. 2.5k avaxx at 8.40, 10 ethereum at 1746, about 7k in BTC ( You should only be aiming for a 1x on bitcoin from 60 to $120)

textoro

because ETF is for plebs, banks end funds always keep the sources and print fakes for the rest

No_Thanks2844

There is so much FUD and ETF outflows, why can't this thing just crash to like $40k, what is holding it above $60k?

Spirited-Birthday-20

Yeah I’ve seen that pattern too. What trips me up is how reliable it’s been even when everything around it feels different, like inflation, rate hikes, ETF flows. I keep second guessing whether this is the cycle where the clockwork breaks or if I’m just overthinking. Do you have a way of separating the halving signal from all the macro noise? Or is it more of a trust the pattern until it fails kind of thing for you? Would it be okay if I DM you a quick follow up? No worries if not.

East_Indication_7816

Millions are being bought by ETF . Did you not see my chart ?

Good_Paramedic126

Se come dici tu che hai informazioni privilegiate che le grandi aziende o istituzioni stanno comprando..perché i tuoi privilegiati non i spiegano perché no aumenta di prezzo??? Perché tutti i giorni escono milioni e milioni dal ETF perché??? Se tu sei milionario cosa che sinceramente non sei solo e nemmeno mi/ci interessa continui a comprare???? Io ho btc da quando valeva più o meno 40. $ non ho mai venduto e non ho mai ricomprato perché già avevo comprato tantissimi all’epoca però non sono in grado di dire o dare informazioni privilegiate. Uno deve credere in un progetto questo è quello che conta e sono tanti però il prezzo va all’opposto di quello che noi vogliamo e non è comprando che cambia la situazione.

fh3131

Don't forget ETFs as well. There are many people who may be getting out of crypto ETFs, and while that doesn't directly trigger selling of the underlying BTC, if there is enough selling of that ETF, the issuer will eventually sell the BTC, regardless of price.

AutoModerator

Post is by: OpticAlpha8 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1u4om4c/cftc_just_approved_the_first_usregulated_bitcoin/ The direct answer: it changes the basis. Offshore perps on Binance, Bybit, and Deribit have historically carried a funding rate premium reflecting regulatory uncertainty. US-regulated perps on a CFTC-registered exchange eliminate that uncertainty. Arb desks delta-hedge between venues, the basis compresses, and offshore funding premiums shrink. \*\*What got approved\*\* On June 12, 2026, the CFTC issued two actions: \- An Order for Approval to KalshiEX for its BTCPERP contract, a perpetual referencing the spot price of Bitcoin \- A no-action letter allowing Coinbase to give US customers access to perpetuals through its Dubai-based derivatives exchange, Deribit Both operate under the CFTC's existing futures framework with adjusted margin requirements, position limits, and reporting obligations. \*\*Why the offshore premium exists\*\* US institutional desks could access offshore perps, but the regulatory risk and compliance friction were priced in. Offshore venues show consistently positive funding partly because regulated alternatives did not exist domestically. That friction is not free, it gets embedded in the cost of carry. \*\*The mechanism that changes\*\* Once US-regulated perps trade at scale, arbitrage desks can efficiently delta-hedge between onshore and offshore. That arbitrage pressure tightens the basis. Sustained basis compression signals institutional rotation toward regulated venues. \*\*What to watch\*\* \- Funding rate differential between KalshiEX and Binance/Bybit once BTCPERP goes live \- Whether position limits constrain the arb enough to preserve any basis \- Volume migration speed: does institutional flow move onshore or stay offshore? This is the largest structural expansion of US institutional access to crypto derivatives since the spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in January 2024. BTC is near $63,400, above all major EMAs, with order book structure pointing to a $70K liquidity cluster as the next significant level. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

devCheckingIn

Hey we had positive ETF inflows across the board yesterday! Is the bottom in? Altseason right around the corner? 😍

Patient-Ordinary-359

There is no investing in crypto. It's all speculation, gambling. You put the last 10% into it. If you want to grow your wealth in a way which is more stable and predictable, the right choice for almost everyone is a broad ETF, any of the big ones: VT (all world), VT (USA) etc. Longer term you can expect around 8-10% per year, proven by decades of historical results. You can buy these from any mainstream broker.

Much-Log-187

The news are terrible but BTC is still 60k+, which surprises me. I think it will drop between 40-50k from October. Many people lost money with crypto, they are tired of praying for their token to pump, which is way too risky and random. They discovered ETF, semiconductors compagnie, AI, which rely on something in the real world, which is adopted contrary to defi... In less than one year AI has been adopted wildly. At the opposit, more than 10 years of cryptocurrencies have only raise scams, suspicions, sophisticated ponzi schemes and next to no adoption. Altcoins are too diluted. It is too easy to create a new crypto. Blockchains are mostly hype trains but after some time still 0 real usecase. People still believe on BTC as a mean to protect over inflation, monkey money, but as it is also highly centralized and manipulated and its performance are decreasing and decreasing, people will prefer ETFs or stock picking.

FranklinCook

I dont see a reason to go into anything crypto related except BTC and maybe top 3 alts. If i want more of a short term gamble i rather buy a stock/Tech sector ETF etc. Obviously some selected alts will do well but its so hard to get the right ones now with the sheer amount of projects/coins available…

Mrkonijntje

Institutions see shit. Look at the ETF outflow. U see fomo at the top and outflow at the bottom. Dont make me laugh lol

mickalawl

Brokers already offer fractional shares. As does any ETF. And the chain is not the actual settlement layer of actual ownership. The exchange is in terms of actual ownership, who votes, who gets dividends. Hiw does an extra layer and the additional rent seeking fees improve what have had for a long time?

Raph0uX

How the fuck is it still early when there already are billion dollars ETF with BTC ☠️

Street-Technology-93

With the AI IPOs, bitcoin stays down through 26. If those same companies’ sticks appreciate in 27, bitcoin stays down. They’re like a black hole absorbing liquidity. Around that time, quantum reality hits its stride. So, in answer to the question we see every teenager post here, yes, it is too late. You didn’t discover shit. Buy an index ETF and best of luck finding a job in this employment hellscape.

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (air-gapped) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is not air-gapped. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

Patient_Craft2195

been around since 2020 and this feels almost identical to mid 2022. same group therapy threads, same "is this 2018 again" posts, same alt bleed.what im watching — stablecoin supply (USDT and USDC printing usually leads bottoms by a few weeks), hashrate near miner shutdown levels, and ETF flows finally stopping the bleed. none of those have flipped yet which is why im also not FOMO-ing here.solana, BNB, XRP holding up cleanest. agree most other alts are zombies until macro turns.

ReliantToker

The event you are referencing from early May was a well-documented technical failure where a third-party pricing provider sent a corrupt data tick to Revolut's interface, causing the display to briefly flash to $0.02. There was zero corresponding price dislocation on actual primary liquidity venues like Coinbase, Kraken, or the CME. A retail app experiencing an API feed error is not proof of an evaporated global order book. While wash trading was prevalent in the unregulated offshore exchanges of 2017, the primary volume drivers of today's spot market are regulated Wall Street entities, CME futures, and spot ETF issuers. Highly audited institutions operating under SEC and CFTC oversight are not running illicit spoofing algorithms to fake their multi-billion dollar daily flows. Claiming that a sale of a "few dozen coins" permanently drops the market demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of capital markets arbitrage. Dumping 50 BTC at market might cause fractional slippage of a few basis points on a single, isolated exchange's order book for a matter of milliseconds. However, automated arbitrage instantly capitalizes on that inefficiency, buying the locally discounted asset and selling it on premium venues, to restore global price parity seamlessly. Where do you people even come up with this stuff?

CODE_HEIST

Crypto still has its own narratives, but macro decides how much oxygen those narratives get. In strong liquidity conditions, protocol news, ETF flows, halvings, and sector rotations can matter a lot. In tight or risk-off conditions, most of that gets overridden and crypto trades like a high-beta liquidity asset. I would track both: internal crypto catalysts for what can lead, and macro/liquidity for whether the market has room to care.

Educational_Cable405

Institutional ownership moves the price chart, not the protocol. ETF coins sit in custody with exactly zero say over consensus, because rule changes get decided by economic nodes, not holders. We already stress tested this in 2017 when the biggest miners and exchanges lined up behind SegWit2x and a bunch of hobbyist node runners just said no. BlackRock could own a quarter of the supply and still couldn't touch the 21M cap.

Anonimo1sdfg

Creo que hoy hay opciones interesantes sin tener que recurrir a eso, por ejemplo el ETF BITU es como BTC x2 y tiene un costo anual de mantemiento del que se descuenta del precio de 1.89% aprox. Claro tiene sus riesgos estod instrumentos por lo general no invierten directamente en BTC usan derivados fianceñieros como futuros.

baIIern

The MSCI 2x Amundi is great though. Not as volatile, thus less decay [https://www.onvista.de/etf/Amundi-ETF-Leveraged-MSCI-USA-Daily-UCITS-ETF-EUR-ACC-ETF-FR0010755611](https://www.onvista.de/etf/Amundi-ETF-Leveraged-MSCI-USA-Daily-UCITS-ETF-EUR-ACC-ETF-FR0010755611)

Drumroll-PH

Nobody really knows if BTC hits $150K or $200K this year, and I've learned to be careful with price targets because markets love proving people wrong. If it does make a big move higher, I'd expect the biggest drivers to be continued ETF inflows, favorable macro conditions, and more institutional and corporate adoption rather than any single catalyst. The utility and infrastructure side matters too, but large pools of capital entering the market tend to have the biggest impact on price.

devCheckingIn

Good article. I was looking into an inverse ETF the other day and when I read about "volatility decay" I noped right out of that idea.

NeitherTumbleweed228

I think next 4 years will show us what will be the future of Bitcoin. If with ETF, Clarity act and good price we dont see massive entry from smart money/countries/big companies i dont see why jt will be different in 10 years tbh

CODE_HEIST

Price targets are less useful than the conditions needed to sustain them. For BTC to push toward 150k or 200k, I would want liquidity improving, ETF flows staying positive, leverage not overheating, and spot demand leading perps. If the move is mostly funding and hype, it can unwind fast. I would rather track market structure and flows than anchor on one headline target.

bumtrainer69

No. I use a lot of margin for ETF's, but BTC to risky.

That_Bar_5570

Never will I introduce someone to the world of finance and then recommend crypto. Recommending a volatile asset to someone with 0 investment experience is asking for problems. High chance of them panic selling or not taking profits. If someone has 0 experience for the love God recommend an ETF. As they get more experience, then turn to crypto. 

AutoModerator

Post is by: Any-Material4877 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1u30og7/i_built_a_free_nosignup_dashboard_that_tracks_us/ Every cycle the same thing happens: liquidity moves first, price follows, and the narrative shows up last. So I built a thing that just watches the first step. **What it tracks, all from primary sources:** - **US Net Liquidity** = Fed balance sheet (WALCL) − Treasury General Account − Reverse Repo. When the Treasury rebuilds its cash pile, dollars leave the system. When they spend it down, dollars flow in. The most underrated driver of BTC. - **Stablecoin supply** (DefiLlama) — minting = dry powder loading; burning = capital leaving. - **Spot BTC ETF flows** (Farside) — the BlackRock/Fidelity bid, 5-day net. - **Broad dollar, SOFR−IORB spread, ECB/BoJ/PBoC balance sheets** — the global backdrop. It compresses all of that into the LiqTide Score (0–100, drained → flooded), plus a lead-line chart (net liquidity shifted ~10 weeks over BTC), a 9-asset sector-rotation wheel, and a world map of the flows. **Honest caveats:** net liquidity is a proxy, best read on 2–4 week persistence, not a daily trade signal. The famous 10–13 week lead is partly FX artifacts. Built to see *conditions*, not predict candles. Free, no signup, no paywall; the daily JSON is an open API (liqtide.com/data/latest.json). Methodology with all sources is on the site. liqtide.com Feedback genuinely wanted — what signal would you add? Considering PBoC OMO and the MOVE index next. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (air-gapped) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is not air-gapped. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

Both_Secretary_8286

I think the mistake is expecting Bitcoin to behave like gold over short timeframes. Most holders still treat it as a risk asset, so when liquidity tightens everything gets sold. The more interesting question is whether Bitcoin needs to be a perfect inflation hedge at all. Plenty of assets fail that test over months or even years. If BTC is going to earn the "digital gold" label, it probably happens over decades, not during a single inflation spike or geopolitical event. That said, the ownership base argument is hard to ignore. As long as the marginal buyer is an ETF investor lumping it in with tech and other risk assets, it's going to trade more like Nasdaq than gold.

GeoSystemsDeveloper

**Daily crypto TL;DR:** * ⚠️ US-Iran tensions drive Bitcoin below $62K, causing broad market declines. * ⚠️ Over $363M in crypto futures liquidated in 24 hours, primarily affecting long positions. * ⚠️ Crypto Fear & Greed Index hits 'Extreme Fear' at a score of 14. * ⚠️ US May CPI rise of 4.2% YoY reinforces expectations for steady Fed interest rates. * 🚀 Morgan Stanley launches lending services backed by spot Bitcoin ETF holdings. *News summary from the* [*HODLings app*](https://www.geosystemsdev.com/products/hodlings/)*.*

Trick_Customer_5767

In my opinion for BTC to trade like hedge again the ownership base needs buyers who are not running BTC in a risk-asset sleeve marked to Nasdaq beta. Sovereign accumulators, self-custody stackers, or funds with an explicit mandate to hold regardless of equity correlation. The ETF wrapper democratized access but it also wired BTC's demand dynamics to institutional portfolio rebalancing in a way that does not unwind quickly. I track daily ETF flows with issuer-level breakdowns here if useful: [https://thriveinmarkets.com/](https://thriveinmarkets.com/)

Ced-Invest

Honest answer, the same thing gold was useful for, which is nothing except staying scarce while everything else got printed. That was enough for 5,000 years. The difference isn't usefulness, it's who holds it. Gold's base is central banks and people who never sell. BTC's base right now is ETF allocators who trim it the second rates reprice. Hype flows somewhere else, sure, but that's a holder problem, not an asset problem.

Far-Photograph-2342

I'd argue this isn't as clean a test as it seems. Bitcoin has never consistently behaved like gold during short-term geopolitical shocks. In periods of acute stress, investors usually sell what they can, not necessarily what they want to own long term. That's why you often see cash, Treasuries, and gold benefit first. What's more interesting is whether Bitcoin can preserve purchasing power over a multi-year period of inflation and currency debasement, not whether it rallies the same week CPI surprises to the upside. That said, I do agree that the ETF era has changed the ownership base. When a large share of buyers treat BTC as a risk asset, it's going to trade like one. The real question is whether that changes over time as adoption and use cases continue to expand.

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Post is by: Ced-Invest and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1u2qk1y/cpi_just_printed_42_the_strait_of_hormuz_is/ Think about what the pitch was for the last decade. When inflation comes back, when governments lose control, when there's conflict over real resources, you'll want a hard asset outside the system. Yesterday we got the full scenario. May CPI at 4.2% year over year, first time above 4% in three years. Oil at $91 after touching $95, because Iran closed the most important chokepoint on the planet. Missiles hitting US military facilities. The Dow dropped 900 points. And bitcoin? Dipped under $61K during the print, bounced to around $63K, still down roughly half from the October top and about 11% on the year. Meanwhile gold sits near its all time high. Spot ETFs have bled $5.5B over 13 straight sessions. I keep coming back to the same uncomfortable read. The marginal buyer of bitcoin today is an ETF allocator who books it in the risk-asset sleeve of a portfolio, right next to Nasdaq beta. When rates reprice higher and equities sell off, that allocator trims the whole sleeve. The asset can't trade as a hedge when its ownership base treats it as leverage on liquidity conditions. The store-of-value bid clearly exists right now. It's just going into gold. I'm not saying the thesis is dead forever. Ownership bases change. But this stretch is the cleanest natural experiment the inflation hedge narrative has ever faced, and so far it's failing it on every axis that matters. What would actually have to change for BTC to trade like a hedge again? Different holders, a different macro regime, or was the hedge story always just narrative on top of a liquidity asset? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

SaeedOrkz

Man, I appreciate you taking the time — this is gold. The ETF point hit. I hadn't fully processed how much institutional flow changes the game. DCA into BTC while I relearn the landscape makes total sense. I'll park the alt temptation for now. On appetite — I want to actively trade eventually, but I'm honest enough to admit I'm rusty. So phase one is rebuild knowledge and discipline. Phase two is active trading with proper risk management. Quick question if you don't mind — which on-chain tools or dashboards do you consider essential these days? The tooling landscape has changed so much.

Suitable_Acadia_190

Three years out is actually a cleaner starting point than most people realize. You are returning with pattern recognition intact but without the bad habits that accumulate from trading through a full cycle without a complete system. What has changed structurally since 2024 that matters most: spot Bitcoin ETFs are now live and institutional flows are measurable and directional. The ETF approval changed the demand structure permanently. Funding rates and open interest mechanics are more institutionally driven than they were in the 2021 cycle. Solana matured significantly as a tradeable perpetuals market. Regulatory clarity improved across major jurisdictions which brought more systematic capital into the space. What has not changed is the part that determines whether you succeed: price still sweeps liquidity before it moves, Wyckoff accumulation and distribution dynamics still play out across every timeframe, and the psychological traps that ended your trading three years ago are still exactly where you left them. Start smaller than feels necessary. The gap between where you were and where the market is now needs to be closed through observation before it is closed through position sizing. Two to four weeks of screen time without live trades will tell you more about what has changed than any summary can.

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Post is by: Right_Effect8912 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1u2gkfv/i_built_a_free_nosignup_dashboard_that_tracks_us/ Every cycle the same thing happens: liquidity moves first, price follows, and the narrative shows up last. So I built a thing that just watches the first step. **What it tracks, all from primary sources:** * **US Net Liquidity** = Fed balance sheet (WALCL) − Treasury General Account − Reverse Repo. When the Treasury rebuilds its cash pile or RRP rises, dollars leave the system. When they spend it down, dollars flow in. This is the single most underrated driver of BTC. * **Stablecoin supply** (DefiLlama) — Tether/Circle minting = dry powder loading; burning = capital leaving. * **Spot BTC ETF flows** (Farside) — the BlackRock/Fidelity bid, 5-day net. * **The broad dollar, SOFR−IORB spread, ECB/BoJ/PBoC balance sheets** — the global funding backdrop. It compresses all of that into one 0–100 "Tide Index" and draws it as a map of capital flows between the Fed, the Treasury, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Beijing, the stablecoin issuers, the ETF desks, and the Bitcoin network. Green arcs = money flowing toward risk, red = the drain. Refreshes once a day after the Treasury's daily statement drops. **The honest caveats:** net liquidity is a proxy, not gospel — it's a regime/backdrop gauge, best read on 2–4 week persistence, not a daily trade signal. The famous "global M2 leads BTC by 10–13 weeks" charts are partly FX artifacts. I built this to see *conditions.* It's free, no signup, no paywall, and the daily JSON payload is an open API if you want to build with the data (liqtide.com/data/latest.json). Methodology with all sources is on the site too. [**liqtide.com**](http://liqtide.com) Feedback genuinely wanted — if you track liquidity, what signal would you add? Considering PBoC OMO and the MOVE index next. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Freudarian

Or, market makers are pushing the price down to prepare the inventory for ETF launch. Maximizing profit. Not sure what is more likely, the most decentralized blochain going to die with new update coming to testnet on 23rd of june. Or market makes being greedy and depressing market so they can fill their bags and make a shitton of money. I wonder 🤔

ClearSnakewood

In self custody yes, but there’s too much paper bitcoin out there via Tradfi. Dump your ETF and MSTR and withdraw all your bought Bitcoin into cold storage.

jkcards_

That seems surprising, any idea if that includes ETF holders? Although I guess they don’t own/hold bitcoins directly

TheresNoSecondBest

Congrats on the move, it's never too late, [despite new people thinking otherwise](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rskpuf/i_have_only_600_bitcoinsi_missed_the_bus/). ONLY INVEST MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. Invest in your knowledge, learn about Bitcoin as much as you can. The Bitcoin Standard book is a must read. So is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. Also, **don't reply any DMs**, emails, private messages on other social media, promising to buy Bitcoin from them or get rich quick by investing into some website. They all are scammers. Even the hot Asian chick, he's a scammer too. **Price wise, nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow, next week or at the end of the year.** **Try "Bitcoin ONLY" strategy for at least the first 210,000 block cycle**, you'll sleep much better. Newcomers lose so much money, holding tokens just because someone on YT told them to. If you don't like losing money in [failed coins](https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed), avoid. DCA is probably the best approach. Once a week works best for me, but I'm getting paid weekly. This [DCA calculator](https://21vox.com/dca-calculator) might help to decide what will work best for you. In a few years, even $10 dollars a month can make a massive difference. This [DCA blog](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) is pretty interesting too and compares buying bitcoin VS stocks. Now, don't buy some fake bitcoin at a spot ETF place or similar, **get the real thing** that you can withdraw anytime you want. Register at a proper exchange and buy real Bitcoin. Any of these will do [https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin](https://bitcoin-only.com/get-bitcoin) Install (or buy - in case you're getting Bitcoin in Thousands of $) one or more of these wallets. **A few good wallet choices:** [https://blockstream.com/app/](https://blockstream.com/app/) \- Top Security Features, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://bluewallet.io](https://bluewallet.io/) \- excellent, easy to use wallet, Open Source and Non-Custodial [https://www.sparrowwallet.com](https://www.sparrowwallet.com) - top desktop wallet [https://electrum.org](https://electrum.org/) \- Solid choice, Open Source and Non-Custodial, one of the oldest and most trusted Bitcoin Wallets. I prefer the desktop version but it works on mobile too. **Lightning wallets** to consider (cheaper and faster transactions, great for small amounts): [https://phoenix.acinq.co/](https://phoenix.acinq.co/) \- Phoenix - very good wallet, uses Tor for extra privacy, easy for anyone new [https://blixtwallet.github.io/](https://blixtwallet.github.io/) \- Blixt - great UI, fast and clean. The app runs a full LND node on your phone and you have the ability to easily open channels to whatever nodes you like. [https://zeusln.com/](https://zeusln.com/) Zeus - impressive wallet with many features, can even generate Nostr keys [https://breez.technology](https://breez.technology/) \- Breez - excellent POS for small business owners as well as integrated Bitrefill Note: Breez does also a hybrid liquid/LN wallet called Misty Breez - the sats being on liquid means no need for channels although the payments take a few extra seconds. You'll also can get a free customable LN address. While talking about hybrid wallets, there's also Aqua Wallet although not IMHO as good as Misty Breez. There are also custodial LN wallet but I would honestly avoid using them because you have to trust the wallet operator not to steal your money. Their only advantage is that they are incredibly easy to use, although it might cost you big one day. To keep up to date with spending wallets, visit r/TheLightningNetwork at least once a while and perhaps r/RGB in the future. **Hardware Wallets** (to store larger amounts): [Trezor](https://trezor.io/) \- Easy to use, no matter how new in Bitcoin you're. If you can afford it, opt for Safe 7 (air-gapped) and use the Bitcoin only firmware as it's safer than a multi coin software. [ColdCard](https://coldcardwallet.com/) - air gapped, Bitcoin only, has advanced features but a new user will do fine with one of the great tutorials available. [BitBox02](https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/bitcoin-only/) - another great little device, opt for the more secure Bitcoin ONLY version (less coins = less code = less chance for a hidden bug or a backdoor). Sadly, this device is not air-gapped. [Jade](https://blockstream.com/jade) - air gapped, fully open source, Bitcoin only, great features. There's a newer version called Jade Plus, it has much better camera and overall is a better, although a bit more expensive, option. You can even [build it on your own](https://github.com/Blockstream/jade/), if you feel adventurous. [Seedsigner](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) - another DIY, fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, not for you if you're just starting up but something to consider later. [Krux wallet](https://selfcustody.github.io/krux/) - one more DIY hardware device, I love this one for many reasons. Similar to Seedsigner, it's fully open source, air gapped, Bitcoin only hardware wallet, that is not for you right now if you're just starting up, but something to consider at a later stage and/or to up the security of your bitcoin. There's also Ledger, but I wouldn't recommend it as it's not fully open source, keep and already leaked customers' details, recently said they're capable of sending customers' keys out just with a firmware update, making is an expensive hot wallet. The opposite of what you want from a cold wallet. **Stay away**, save yourself a headache in the future. The same goes for many other hardware wallets that are too new or filled with too much of unnecessary shitcoin code. Stay away. Whatever wallet you'll decide to buy, purchase DIRECTLY from the manufacturer, no eBay, no Amazon. Make sure the device is NOT preset, and you will generate your own seed words. Write them down on any piece of paper as well as the receiving address. Now wipe the wallet and generate a new wallet. If the seed words are different from the first set, you're safe to use it. Find an option to set a passphrase and use it. This will boost the security to another level. Never store the seed words and passphrase together. Use a different medium if possible. If somebody finds both, they'll be able to steal your coin. This little device will hold the keys to your money, that's the reason why you have to be a bit more careful. Also, no worries, if it breaks, you can replace it - as long as you keep your seed words and passphrase(s) safe. Welcome to the rabbit hole and don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions anytime during your Bitcoin journey. Also, [check the sidebar](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about) that's filled with lots of great info and if you have any questions, visit r/BitcoinBeginners or r/Bitcoin and look for the answers.

Educational_Cable405

Calling any three indicators "unbreakable" is the part that makes me nervous. Every cycle people anchor on a metric that worked beautifully until it didn't. The 200 week MA, the rainbow chart, NUPL bands, they all held until a macro shock or an ETF or a halving changed the supply dynamics underneath them. On-chain data is genuinely useful for context, but treating it as a law instead of a probability is how people end up overleveraged at the wrong moment.

AutoModerator

Post is by: AIautoagent1 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1u288dr/cbdcs_are_becoming_the_default_policy_pathhow/ The most important monetary story right now isn’t another ETF or halving — it’s that CBDCs are quietly becoming the default policy path for most major economies, and that fundamentally changes the game for why Bitcoin and real self-custody matter. If you look at the Atlantic Council CBDC tracker and recent IMF/WEF material, the direction of travel is obvious: China’s e-CNY is already live at scale, the ECB is deep into the “preparation phase” of a digital euro, India is expanding wholesale and retail pilots, and a whole cluster of EMs (Nigeria, Bahamas, Jamaica, some Caribbean states) are already in production. The IMF is literally running training programs on “Macro-Financial Implications of CBDCs and Non-Bank Private Monies.” This isn’t experimental anymore, it’s institutionalized. Meanwhile, the UN/WEF crowd is explicitly talking about CBDCs as part of a more “multipolar” financial architecture – i.e., a slow erosion of pure USD rails in cross-border flows, not some overnight dollar collapse but a structural shift. For crypto, that cuts both ways. On one hand, CBDCs are a state-backed competitor to stablecoins for payments and settlement. On the other, they’re a giant advertisement for why you might want an asset that doesn’t sit on a revocable, permissioned government ledger. As fiscal deficits and debt loads stay structurally high, the pressure for financial repression and soft debasement doesn’t go away; CBDCs just give policymakers finer tools to direct credit, control capital flows, and “nudge” behavior. At the same time, US institutions are normalizing Bitcoin as a macro asset via ETFs and balance-sheet exposure. So you end up with an interesting barbell: CBDCs for compliant transactional money, Bitcoin/crypto as the exit and optionality hedge. Personally, with CBDCs accelerating, I keep everything off exchanges in self-custody on a Ledger — the whole point of crypto is the exit: https://shop.ledger.com/?r=earning-hq&utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=ledger and I use Coinbase for regulated exposure and fiat on/off ramps because it’s still the most compliant US ramp: https://coinbase.com/join/earning-hq?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cbdc&utm_content=coinbase Curious how everyone here is thinking about CBDC risk in their portfolio construction. Are you adjusting your BTC/ETH/stablecoin mix, or treating CBDCs as just another payments rail that doesn’t change the core thesis? Ledger and Coinbase links are affiliate links. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

GreemBeam

Oh yes, stick it in an ETF that's been going vertical and is about to dump hard because that's the sort of advice a financial advisor would tell you, so it must be sensible.

jeremyvr46

Put it in the market. ETF like VOO etc. Don’t put all your eggs in the same basket when you invest your money. Put some in BTC for crypto, some in ETFs and some in individual stocks if there’s anything you like.

darkpool_watcher

Thanks, glad that it helped. Avoiding bad shorts on surprise bounces like this one is really hard, especially in your first cycle. Even experienced traders get caught. The best small hints that a bounce might be coming are price holding a major support level like 59-60k with increasing buy volume, very high short interest combined with extremely negative funding rates, and strong rejection candles at the bottom. But nothing is certain. The safest approach is to avoid shorting with high leverage during uncertain times or only use very small position sizes. Other common unexpected moves in a Bitcoin cycle that often catch swing traders include long squeezes where price drops hard to liquidate longs then reverses sharply, fakeouts and stop hunts that briefly break key levels only to reverse, news-driven whipsaws from ETF flows or macro events, low-liquidity weekend pumps or dumps, and relief rallies right after big crashes that feel like the bottom but aren't the real one. For a first-cycle swing trader the smartest thing is tight risk management, small position sizes, and always having a plan for both directions. Many people lose money trying to perfectly time these moves. The simplest and most reliable edge is still DCA and long-term holding.

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Post is by: Ced-Invest and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1u234ol/bernstein_says_its_the_ai_trade_not_quantum_fears/ OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO on Monday, one week after Anthropic did the same on June 1. Anthropic's last private round put it at $965B, above OpenAI for the first time, with run-rate revenue crossing $47B in May. Meanwhile spot bitcoin ETFs are on a 13-day outflow streak, $4.4B pulled since May 15, IBIT leading the bleed. BTC is sitting around $62K after losing $60K on Friday. Bernstein's read is that this isn't quantum-computing fear or some structural crypto problem. It's allocation. The high-beta, "future of money" slot in a portfolio is a single slot, and right now it's being filled by AI equities and pre-IPO rounds, not by a non-yielding asset that just watched the 10Y climb back above 4.5% after a hot jobs print. What makes it worse for the bitcoin bid: when these IPOs actually price, you get a second drain. Crossover funds and retail money that would have rotated into majors gets parked in the new liquid AI names instead. The ETF wrapper was supposed to bring sticky institutional money. Turns out that same money has a shinier object to chase every quarter now. I'm not calling for a collapse. The flows are cyclical and could flip the day yields ease. But the "AI capex lifts all risk assets together" thesis is dead for this cycle, and anyone still pricing BTC off the Nasdaq melt-up is trading a correlation that already broke. Is this a temporary liquidity rotation that reverses once the IPO supply gets absorbed, or has crypto permanently lost the high-beta growth slot to AI? What's your take? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*