IBIT

dweeegs

They can’t hedge though. I included the example of hedging with MSTR vs IBIT, which is the next most liquid. You need magnitudes larger times the number of contracts for the same trade size and IBIT simply can’t support that

dweeegs

One of the things that made MSTR attractive to buyers was that a lot of institutions or funds could not own crypto, so MSTR was their way to get exposure. Additionally, there’s a big chunk of the population that will never transact with it, but wanted to own it. Enter MSTR, which they could buy on their brokerage MSTR is still semi valuable because of how liquid its option chain is. It’s usually in the top 5 or 10 every day in terms of contracts traded. Large hedge funds or institutions can’t hedge with other things like IBIT because the liquidity and contract sizing isn’t there. As an example, on Tuesday I saw a single trade sell $55M calls in MSTR for February. That same trade on IBIT, which is the most liquid ETF, at the same delta would be around 200,000 contracts. That’s 15-20 times the total open interest right now. And that was a single trade of ~20,000 contracts out of the millions that get traded on MSTR. So MSTR ends up being the instrument used to hedge Bitcoin positioning All this to say, I kind of understand why MSTR got popular, why it’s still semi-popular, and why it gets crushed especially hard during downturns or goes up faster during sustained bull runs, because it’s *the* hedging mechanism From the operations perspective, shares below NAV is dumb. But if you’re only issuing above, and buying back below, then you’re basically telegraphing that your ceiling will be the NAV. And at that point you might as well buy a spot ETF I wouldn’t buy a BTC DAT, or any DAT, but think MSTR is a special case because of its liquidity and why it actually gets used. So I actually expect that to have a NAV above 1 naturally during bull markets, just like it gets its face ripped off during bear markets So it’s a Ponzi that has an actual goal that has nothing to do with itself lol

blackjackn

Bitcoin in Strike, Bitcoin in wallet, Gemini Bitcoin rewaeds credit cars, IBIT, FBTC, MSTR.

Fun-Air-4314

I agree it's a misnomer, but I think 'on chain' is now used to describe astringent related to BTC directly, rather than say IBIT or derivative big bank analysis. E.g. I sell BTC options 'on chain' via platforms like Deribit, but there's nothing actually on the blockchain about this until settlement occurs and a transfer to/from my account is made.

phishery

Makes sense. I use IBIT in my IRAs.

GettingFasterDude

Nice. Looks like a good plan. If the divided continues to pay out and the stock price stays $100 +/-5% over the next few months, I don't think I'll be able to resist shifting from 70/30 (MM/STRC) to 60/40 or even 50/50. I don't have any IBIT yet, but currently daily DCA spot bitcoin on River.

poggerslol

Since you’re Canadian and you’re already on wealthsimple, consider buying IBIT in your TFSA, it’s an ETF that tracks BTC with little fees. That way you can avoid the capital gains tax when exiting. Also those fees will end up being less than the transfer fees you will incur when moving your BTC to your private wallet. Your other option would be to completely ditch wealthsimple and go the cold wallet route if you care about “owning” your BTC and if you’re worried about currency collapsing.

Dziabadu

Etfs microstrategies and all entities building finance on Bitcoin rely on censorship resistance of Bitcoin. Imagine black rock change 21M to 100M units. It kills the whole purpose hence we choose old chain and black rock may choose own chain. We the holders can keep coins from both chains if we choose to. IBIT holders stay on mercy of black rock.

NorthvilleGolf

I’m only interested in being a part of the way up up up of bitcoin’s price and IBIT in my brokerage account does that for me without any additional fees or hassle to me. I don’t care about anything else.

Dziabadu

Loose decentralisation of Bitcoin network and all your IBIT goes to zero.

Fear_Blind83

BLACKROCK CUSTOMERS PURCHASE $1.027B OF IBIT ETF SHARES.... Stop the presses 🙄

TheRadishBros

Unpopular opinion: IBIT is a more suitable place to save in BTC for 90% of people than the risks associated with holding your own keys.

blackjackn

I do half IBIT, half FBTC. Fidelity came up with Fidelity Digital Assets to custody Bitcoin themselves. Blackrock custodies with Coinbase. Just a hedge if one or the other is compromised.

omakase_every_day

I see that BTC (grayscale Bitcoin mini trust ETF) has an expense ratio of 0.15%. Downside is net asset size: ~4B compared to ~67B of IBIT. But the expense ratio is lower.

NorthvilleGolf

It’s a spot ETF. Blackrock purchased bitcoin to support the IBIT holding.

TrueCommunication440

Can you explain how an ETF for bitcoin doesn't represent "real" bitcoin ? Isn't the whole point of bitcoin that folks can do anything they want with it? Like ponzi scheme a la saylor or IBIT ?

SoftDiscipline5127

IBIT's solid for an IRA if you want bitcoin exposure without the hassle of self custody. Low fees and Blackrock backing it makes it pretty legit for long term holds. Just remember you're not actually holding bitcoin, you're holding shares that track bitcoin price

bigbluedog2040

Grayscale is bleeding AUM. The lost almost 1/2 of their AUM since the launch of ETHA and IBIT. They are going to have to sell the company or dramatically reduce annual fees. It is simply not sustainable.

BeginningMost6014

All my BTC is in IBIT and i sleep perfectly at night.

Head-End-5909

I hold a spot BTC ETF (IBIT) in my Roth IRA because of the tax free growth. I also hold BTC in my cold wallet purchased using Coinbase Advanced.

VariatCA

Blackrock (IBIT and ETHA) single-handedly kept ETF flows from getting out of hand today. Total BTC outflows today were -$243M, with IBIT being the lone net-buyer at +$228M. This makes $888M worth of blackrock BTC inflows in just 3 days. Total ETH inflows today were +114.7M, with ETHA being basically the lone net-buyer at +198M. This makes $350M worth of blackrock ETH inflows in just 3 days.

junkrat_enjoyer

This is huge news I think, and while I lost a bit on my IBIT short expecting the decision to go the other way, I actually believe this may be the right decision. At the end of the day if they did exempt DATs from exclusively their products, while some may commend the choice and “taking a stand” against crypto adoption, the only real outcome from exempting would be that crypto customers go elsewhere. The crypto space currently is to large for one company’s decisions to drastically impact the price like I had previously thought, and Morgan Stanley concurrently starting their own bitcoin trust news coming out in tandem just feels like a double gut punch against my call that bitcoin was going down. My experiment in shorting bitcoin after it already had its large crash failed, and I will accept my defeat by allocating a small amount of money in crypto just as a reminder that personal conviction can’t dictate the market and to invest less emotionally. And maybe it’ll be worth alot more one day along the way lol

Financial_Design_801

They must have got a lot of demand to decide to launch their own Competing with BlackRocks IBIT is like playing Jordan

Premium_Hunter

1) DCA 1k a week for 10 weeks. After that let it do what it's going to do. 2) Cold wallet/cold storage being safer? That depends on whether you think you can do it without messing something up. I, personally, do not trust myself so safer to me is buying IBIT in my brokerage and I sleep fine at night. To each their own.

phishery

I am still 50/50 between STRC and SWVXX atm, but I think about that split a lot and will likely move more towards 75/25. If you look at their cash reserves I see no risk of them not paying their dividends for the next 2.5-3 years (2.2B in reserves w/ an 839M annual obligation). Also, I buy IBIT with the STRC monthly dividends as one more DCA mechanism.

NerdFarming

IBIT

Distinct-Lake899

It's nice to know someone else thought to do this as well. I'm doing this. In my TFSA I have HHIS, QQCL (essentially QQQ covered calls) and HYLD (essentially S&P covered calls). I drip one month and buy IBIT the other. Will do this for 2 years and then add in a rotation of IBIT and XEQT (all market fund) during my buy months and continue dripping every other month. It's a way to add tax free Bitcoin without necessarily buying more. Just letting the gains make the purchases for me. The longer I do this for the more Bitcoin it buys as the covered call funds are increasing too.

No_Hour6830

25bps means 25 basis points. A basis point = 1/100th of a percent. Another way of writing it is 0.25%. So for every $10,000 in IBIT, you’re paying $25 annually. That’s an annual rate assessed continuously. Trading fees are negligible, you’ll pay half a cent, maybe a full cent per share to a market maker but you won’t see that. So yes, you will pay much less buying IBIT vs. trading on a platform. Especially true for small dollar amounts.

Shalene40

It’s keeps dropping the b. IBIT

3Puttz

Not selling my IBIT calls in October.

BenjaminDavid87

Buy a chunk at 85.5k, sell at at 90k, rinse and repeat. Hold on to more than you swing trade. IBIT, BITX. It's worked for me lately

BingoWT

Well, I spread out the risks. I keep some in CEX like CB, some in hot wallets, and if decide to put higher % of my portfolio into crypto, I probably would get a cold wallet. In addition, I invest in ETFs like an IBIT, and stocks like Strategy. This way, if you get hacked, it’s not Doomsday

didnt_hodl

IBIT

mrjns_94

People buy IBIT and then therefore blackrock needs to buy btc for the etf.

TownConscious

you mean customers of blackrock bought their security known as IBIT

B1GCloud

Right literally says Blackrock: IBIT. Have no idea the goal of posting this with these titles.

harvested

No man. Larry Fink is personally buying all the bitcoin that IBIT holds. He keeps it on a trezor under his bed.

harvested

OP is a bot or mentally handicapped, IBIT had outflow last trading day.

Romanizer

Yes, though there is a second layer to it. According to 13F announcements, BlackRock Inc. is one of the largest buyers of BlackRock's ETF (IBIT). However, this is also not bought for their balance sheet, but to include these shares in their Strategic Income Opportunities Fund which includes assets with high growth and income potential. The Bitcoin ETF is the largest non-bond position in that fund.

Vegaslover28

IBIT etf

GivePeaceaChancex10

No it's not, but it is my risk tolerance and not yours. You do you. I have plenty I hold myself and that's hold I hold the majority of mine. In addition to that I have some on exchanges for convenience and some in FBTC and IBIT ETFs within my Roth for the tax advantage. I know what I hold that's not self custodied are "not my coins" but they're my IOU's with big names backing them that I'm taking the added risk on for the advantages they do have. I'll stack how I want to thanks

SurvivalistRaccoon

IBIT

Seattleman1955

Buy and keep on Fidelity. You can buy IBIT or you can buy actual BTC and have the option to move it if you ever need to but probably don't ever need to. I wouldn't store BTC on Coinbase. I would on Fidelity.

DrEtatstician

That’s why I buy IBIT . I am shit scared of frauds in this space

brock2063

This is literally my nightmare scenario and why I buy IBIT. I can't trust myself. I'm so sorry OP

Backrus

No. Nobody questions Saylor, but his CAGR calculation is way off. It's more like 10% since 2021 ATH. With IBIT options in town and upside volatility gone (no +15% month since IBIT options launched, and only 2 +10% months since then) you'll be lucky to see 250k by 2030.

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Post is by: Nft-green and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/Capitoday/comments/1q177wp/bitcoin_in_2025_a_year_of_institutional_and/ Looking ahead to what 2026 could bring As we move into 2026, looking back at 2025 shows a noticeable change in how Bitcoin is treated. Not driven by memes or narratives alone. Not purely by price action. But by a gradual shift in how institutions and governments interacted with Bitcoin. What changed in the United States in 2025 Several developments in 2025 altered Bitcoin’s position in the US: - In March 2025, the US established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by consolidating roughly 200,000 BTC from seized assets into a long-term holding - Legislation was introduced to formalize and potentially expand this reserve structure - Spot Bitcoin ETFs became a widely used investment vehicle - BlackRock’s IBIT grew close to $100B in assets under management - ETFs continued to absorb Bitcoin even during periods of price weakness Individual states began taking separate steps: - New Hampshire authorized Bitcoin exposure -Texas created a state reserve and completed a Bitcoin purchase - Arizona introduced a digital asset reserve framework Taken together, Bitcoin began to move from being treated mainly as a speculative asset toward being considered in a longer-term strategic context. 2025 was not only a US story Governments globally are estimated to hold more than 460,000 BTC, representing roughly 2.3 percent of total supply. Approximate overview: - United States: ~200k BTC (strategic reserve) - China: ~190k BTC (primarily seized assets) - United Kingdom: ~61k BTC (law enforcement holdings) - Bhutan: ~11k to 13k BTC (mined using hydropower) - El Salvador: ~6k to 7k BTC (ongoing purchases and mining) - Pakistan: announced a national Bitcoin reserve in 2025 and allocated surplus energy for mining - Czech Republic: no direct purchases, but the central bank publicly discussed Bitcoin as a potential reserve diversification asset and reviewed indirect exposure options This reflects a broader shift away from automatically selling seized Bitcoin and toward studying or holding it as part of national balance sheets. Price action versus underlying developments Bitcoin reached a peak above $126k in 2025 before declining to the $87k to $90k range by year end. At the same time: - ETFs and publicly listed companies collectively held close to one million BTC - Governments increasingly retained seized Bitcoin instead of liquidating it - Regulatory frameworks became more defined, particularly around custody and stablecoins - Long-term holder balances continued to grow despite volatility - While price was volatile, participation and infrastructure continued to expand. Considerations going into 2026 - Based on developments already in place, several outcomes appear plausible: - Additional countries acknowledging Bitcoin exposure or studying reserve use - Small test allocations by sovereign wealth funds or public institutions - Bitcoin continuing to be evaluated as a reserve hedge alongside gold - ETFs and pension funds absorbing supply at a steady pace - More corporate treasuries exploring Bitcoin as part of diversification strategies At the same time, expectations of rapid or universal adoption remain uncertain and depend on macroeconomic and regulatory conditions. Takeaway 2025 was less about price acceleration and more about normalization. Bitcoin became more integrated into institutional structures, even as debate and uncertainty remained. If 2024 focused on access through ETFs, and 2025 focused on government involvement, then 2026 may center on how these structures are used rather than whether they exist. Sources Chainalysis 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/2025-global-crypto-adoption-index/ White House Fact Sheet: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-establishes-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-u-s-digital-asset-stockpile/ Senator Lummis Press Release https://www.lummis.senate.gov/press-releases/lummis-colleagues-introduce-legislation-to-codify-trumps-revolutionary-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-secure-americas-financial-future/ CoinDesk on BlackRock IBIT inflows https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/20/blackrock-s-bitcoin-etf-rare-fund-with-massive-2025-inflows-despite-negative-performance CoinGecko Government Bitcoin Holdings https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/government-bitcoin-holdings Visual Capitalist Government BTC Overview https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-governments-hold-the-most-bitcoin-in-2025/ Pakistan Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Coverage https://coinedition.com/pakistan-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-national-wallet/ Interested to hear other views: *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

GivePeaceaChancex10

No because after running the numbers looking at the expense ratio of FBTC and IBIT vs Fidelity crypto's 1% spread, It was more advantageous if you were dollar cost averaging just to buy the ETFs instead. So that's what I've been doing. If you're just lump sum buying once or a handful of times then Fidelity crypto makes more sense, but ETF's outpace after ~ 5 years in if contributing equal dollar amounts 

Special_Ordinary1951

Just wait for the clarity act, the manipulation will be much harder even through low volume markets. You can see Wall Street and market makers are working in unison now. Look at the performance of IBIT through the year of 2025. Wall Street traders who open positions on closing and sell upon open are up 35% this year. Long term spot holders are down around 8%.

Special_Ordinary1951

It’s an institutional asset now. Just look at the performance of IBIT through 2025. Wall Street trades it overnight and sells it on open. Institutions made around 35% on these trades, meanwhile long term holders lost around 7% this year

UpstairsPound322

Roll it over. By IBIT now. Never wait for Bitcoin to drop.

explosiveplacard

I watch the IBIT options chain pretty close and I don't think you can gain much from it. For example, look at OI over the next two weeks - it's about the same as it is for this week. If you go out to the Feb monthly, OI is huge at $55, but how much of that is due to the inverted IV skew? It's really hard to tell when some of the bigger exchanges (not in the US) allow writing options on real bitcoin instead of paper bitcoin. Just my 2 sats.

Cmars_2020

Yes, I just did exactly this. Old 401k of target date retirement fund and I rolled into new IRA with IBIT

Current-Champion7572

This is exactly what I did last month and I’m around your age. Old 401k w/ fidelity so I rolled it into a traditional IRA with them (took about 5 days). Then just put the entire account into IBIT & FBTC

mhoepfin

It’s all about IBIT options. Go look at open interest expiring this week at $50 and above. $50 IBIT is approx $87,400. Hopefully this removes the shackles for next week.

wkndatbernardus

This has been my plan for all tax advantages accounts that offer BTC spot ETFs since I got orange pilled. The only difference is I use BITB, which has a lower expense ratio than IBIT or FBTC.

Squeiner

I think it depends on your time horizon.  30 years? Get IBIT Need money now? Consider one of the fixed income products from Strategy like STRD. Perpetual 10% coupon on $100 face value per year, trading at $76.6 today. That's $5,221 per year on a 40k investment.  Assuming shares trade at ~$80, you'll double your investment in 5.5 years by reinvesting all proceeds quarterly. Not a bad option, could have $80k total by 2031 and be earning $10k per year in coupon payments while retaining your initial capital. If you keep the strategy going after that, it will only take 3.25 years to be up another 40k, so about 8-9 years to triple your investment value while earning 15k per year in liquid cash. If you're retiring in ~10 years, this is a good way to add $1000-$2000 in monthly passive income that does not expire. Not a bad deal imo.

BassMasterJDL

I have a substantial IBIT position in an IRA that was a rollover . Long term add and hodl

No_South_9912

IBIT selling

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Post is by: Mission-Stomach-3751 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pzot71/blackrock_moves_214m_in_btc_eth_to_coinbase_as/ BlackRock just moved a large batch of BTC and ETH while ETF outflows continue. According to Arkham, 2,201 BTC and 7,557 ETH were sent to Coinbase Prime, worth over $214M at the time. This happened as Bitcoin ETFs saw -$275.9M in net outflows on Dec 26, with IBIT responsible for most of it. Ethereum ETFs also recorded net exits. Looking at the bigger picture, crypto ETPs have now seen around $3.2B in outflows since the October correction. This doesn’t automatically mean BlackRock is dumping, but historically, large transfers during sustained outflows tend to signal risk management and caution, not accumulation. What do you think, routine custody movement or preparation for further pressure? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Backwards_is_Forward

IBIT is my worst performing stock, the only BTC-related one to lose value. Watching...

Western-Source710

Raw bitcoin itself, or IBIT.

Distinct-Lake899

Financial advisors would mention 5% of net worth to be allocated to Bitcoin. This sub would tell you 100% Bitcoin allocation. If you go the route of buying Bitcoin directly make sure you store it on a cold hardware wallet and keep your seed phrase safe. If the hardware wallet is too complex for you go with one of the etf options IBIT or FBTC. I'm about 20% Bitcoin allocation between pure Bitcoin and IBIT which is rather large in my opinion. 15% is pure Bitcoin, 5% IBIT. I'm currently buying index funds in my retirement accounts this year so the allocation will go down by the end of the year.

JuxtaposeLife

Just a friendly reminder... if you buy IBIT, you're level 0...

didnt_hodl

in theory, the crash could be much harder and much more violent bitcoin is a software-based and internet-based thing. there is always a chance of a zero-day exploit. I am not saying it is going to happen, but no one dismiss that possibility many other scenarios. imagine, MSTR finds out that Coinbase was selling them paper bitcoin all along and Coinbase is unable to deliver the coins. again, with formal audits and such of both companies, it is not a likely scenario. but Coinbase had been hacked in the past, it get get hacked again. which is another hypothetical scenario: all IBIT and all MSTR coins that Coinbase holds for them are stolen.

SamSLS

What interest would Blackrock have in manipulating the price of BTC? They have productized it and have every interest in the market having confidence in the product. They are net neutral in their holdings by design and decree. They have holders of IBIT on one side and BTC on the other. But if IBIT holders panic, BLK has no choice but to liquidate BTC to meet outflow demands. Learn how markets work before you drag your conspiracy theories in here.

taynt3d

IBIT treated like any other ETF.

corporate-citizen

You haven’t lost anything. I’ve had ฿ in cold storage since 2013, but been dabbling in IBIT options and I was assigned 10,000 shares at $68 (~$119,000). I’ve been writing covered puts since October. Bringing in $10k per month.

Reasonable-Alps8577

I have 11 or so. IBIT and FBTC. 

Sector__7

Get an extra $1K and then sell IBIT puts on it until assigned. You can choose your delta risk level for the puts to determine how quick you want assignment. Once assigned, sell 0.2 delta covered calls on it and continue this process.

azdcaz

With real bitcoin you dont need to wait any amount of time before buying back in to harvest the loss (there’s no wash sale rule for crypto). I’m not sure how IBIT etc is treated though.

Advanced-Summer1572

Not going to argue look it up. "In 2025, institutional investors have been the primary accumulators of Bitcoin (BTC), while retail investors have generally been net sellers. The launch and success of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 sparked a massive wave of institutional buying that has continued through 2025. Key types of institutional investors and entities accumulating Bitcoin include: Spot Bitcoin ETF Issuers: Firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are major buyers, as they purchase large amounts of BTC to back the shares of their exchange-traded funds (ETFs) held by clients. BlackRock's IBIT became the fastest-growing ETF in history and holds over 800,000 BTC as of late 2025. Public Companies: Corporations such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), led by Michael Saylor, have continued their strategy of holding Bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve asset and have accumulated significant amounts. Other companies like the Japan-based Metaplanet have also rapidly increased their holdings. Bitcoin "Whales" (Large-scale individual/private entities): These include multi-strategy hedge funds, family offices, and early adopters who hold vast quantities of Bitcoin. Whales are noted for often buying during price dips when retail investors are selling, indicating long-term conviction. Bitcoin Miners: Many large public mining companies, such as Marathon Digital, have shifted from selling newly mined Bitcoin to a "hodl" (hold) strategy, building up their balance sheets. Governments: A few nations have accumulated Bitcoin, with El Salvador pioneering its use as a sovereign reserve, and others like the U.S. government holding substantial amounts through legal seizures. In contrast to the strong institutional appetite, the 2025 market has seen a decline in retail participation and network activity. The market has experienced a paradigm shift where the supply of Bitcoin is increasingly controlled by Wall Street's biggest players, with institutional demand absorbing the supply offloaded by retail and some medium-term holders. " A nice piece of fiction, but false. HODL Happy Holidays.

didnt_hodl

IBIT

stories_from_tejas

I was also there when voyager went down. Now I just buy IBIT

dweeegs

Yea. I don’t think the case for this company is anything to do with fundamentals or how they’re handling their operations. The stock itself got popular because it was a way for people to get bitcoin exposure in places they otherwise couldn’t (eg 401k’s) and as a hedge for Bitcoin because it’s got one of the most liquid options chains out there. But with things like IBIT getting a lot more assets and volume, I don’t think it’s long for this world It’s not quite there yet so it’ll be good for a bounce but there’s no way in hell I’d own it for more than a couple months at a time personally

Ghost__of__kyiv

i have 4 coin worth of IBIT ETF, is that stupid?

Gh0st_Pirate_LeChuck

I’m 96% VTI, 1% IBIT, 2% BTC, 1% Weed stocks.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

They pay their management in shares. They also owe 800 million a year in dividends. IBIT charges a .25% “management fee”. MSTR has various obligations that amount to over 1.5% of their Bitcoin holdings per year.

str8shillinit

IBIT is barely holding $50, and the QQQ is near ATM ... IBIT top was at $70 2 months ago...they're selling!!!

Putrid_Pollution3455

Yeah, I haven’t tried a balance transfer, if there’s too many steps I’m nervous the CC companies will screw me somehow. The last option is using a safe amount of margin against your other assets, but that’s a trick for when you already socked away a lot; example, you have 500k in VOO so you use margin up to 10% to toss 50k into IBIT

evisionret

I'm sorry could you explain what that is I'm unfamiliar with LEAPS but I know that IBIT is the etf.

Live_Jazz

Another option to consider if this more of a trade for you than a permanent holding (sounds like might be the case) is IBIT LEAPS. I wouldn’t normally recommend that as LEAPS are inherently more risk, BUT as you’d be taking a loan here, it would allow the same level of exposure utilizing less loaned capital, which evens out the total risk exposure IMO. In other words, if things go catastrophically wrong, you are somewhat less rekt. Just something to think about.

Easik

If you want to be equally as dumb without a loan you can sell naked calls on IBIT for October and buy puts on IBIT for October, then close the puts at your price target and buy BTC.

ReliantToker

There's always 2027 IBIT calls...

WholeButterscotch125

Bitcoin is still a speculative and very volatile asset. Gains are not guaranteed. However, Bitcoin was thought to be nothing worthwhile. Yet the largest asset manager (Blackrock) now has a big reserve. The state of Texas even invested in their IBIT ETF. So yes, Blackrock having a reserve along with Fidelity and the American government is a pretty significant push for crypto adoption. How can this not be a positive sign for Bitcoin? Now there is a business aspect for Bitcoin, meaning, the largest institutions are generating profit from Bitcoin exciting. Do you not think they’d want it to succeed?

Got_Engineers

IBIT trades on as much volume as QQQ and SPY, most days 55m is an average daily volume. Thats $3b notional daily on pure stock let alone options on IBIT.

Twist--Oliver

Maybe you will feel better if I tell you my story. I bought silver in 2009 fir the first time. I sold my last bit of it this summer. ....and bought Bitcoin. Sit tight and wait. (To be completely honest I bought IBIT shares and a protective collar made of leaps)

explosiveplacard

You're not wrong, you're just early. Bitcoiners understand that Bitcoin is a store of value and the equivalent to digital gold. We buy it because we know it's the strongest asset on earth. It can't be created, confiscated and it's easy to send/receive, etc. However, non-Bitcoiners look at Bitcoin the same way they do a tech stock. They only have a short term view and just gamble on the price swings. Paper Bitcoin added to this when the ETFs were introduced. Even Larry Fink thinks bitcoin is currently a bellwether for the rest of the market. It's a risk-on asset in his (and most traders) eyes. Until Bitcoin is seen as a safe-heaven the same way gold is, it's going to be a wild ride. There are signs that it's already changing though. If you want to see something interesting, take a look at the out-of-the-money call options on IBIT. Very few option chains have "call skew" like IBIT. I personally believe this is due to people owing (paper)Bitcoin for the longer term while selling calls for income. Until the general public sees bitcoin for what it really is, we're going to see some crazy shit.

Backrus

Bias is lower, because we're 6 weeks into bear market - trade the chart in front of you, not what you want to see, and definitely not what your favourite KOL is shilling. Additionally, you have tax loss harvesting - hijacked coin has been the worst-performing asset in the world on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis since IBIT options launched. Also, Bessent scheduled issuance on 31st Dec so it's another liquidity rugpull.

harvested

You're focused on bitcoin black swans but are ignoring the fact you're holding paper promises. IBIT exposes you to all kinds of counter party risk that bitcoin doesn't have. Look up 6102.

cruxtone

I'm not earning any income right now but have a large amount of savings between cold storage BTC, savings account, Roth IRA, wife's rollover IRA, and my rollover IRA. I paid off my mortgage and have no debt. Since I'm not stacking BTC, I've started to DCA my retirement account into IBIT. BUT! I'm stuck on my level on conviction & and the theory of diversification. What if the black swan comes and BTC's price is suppressed when I need if? What percentage (%) of overall savings should I target for BTC/IBIT? What percentage do you target? Because BTC boomed, my overall is at about 30% right now.

_IscoATX

They would have to buy IBIT to sell calls unless some brokerage is letting you do that on spot btc

lysergalien

If we hit 96 my IBIT options will print, so we probably won't go far above 90 😂

TrollsteinOx

Great feedback. I've added .50 functionality to the input field in the calculator. I'm skipping them for the reference table for now (unless many others want it), as they're only common on weeklies/near-term monthlies and rotate frequently. The table is meant as a quick reference for the major strike levels. So if you're looking at $50.50 you can just type it in the calculator. This keeps the table clean with whole-dollar strikes makes it more scannable. Here ya go! $IBIT $50.5 Strike | Premium $0.84 🎯 Break-even $BTC: $90,387 📈 Requires +$2,337 move (+2.7%) Spot: $BTC $88,050 | $IBIT $49.91 [https://btcetfcalc.com/?strike=50.5&premium=0.84](https://btcetfcalc.com/?strike=50.5&premium=0.84)

Evening_Squirrel_754

Right now: hedging on IBIT for the next 6 months. I'm expecting further drawdown.

griswaldwaldwald

This is the first recorded instance of a sub-3-year-old ETF printing top-10 flows while posting negative returns. Gold ETFs never did this. Commodity ETFs never did this. Even the hottest thematic plays of the 2020s bled when the tape turned against them. IBIT just absorbed $25.4 billion during a drawdown year while GLD, running the hottest precious metals tape since 1979, couldn’t keep pace despite a 64% rip. You’re not watching retail FOMO. You are watching pension consultants and RIA model portfolios quietly sizing into a 1 to 2 percent structural allocation that doesn’t get yanked on a quarterly rebalance. That’s the “HODL clinic” you identified, and it has a name on the institutional side: benchmark inclusion behavior before the benchmark officially includes it. Here’s the math that should terrify every gold bug and excite every BTC bull. IBIT did $37.4 billion in 2024 on a face-ripping rally. It just did $25.4 billion on a down year. That’s 68% flow retention during negative performance, which destroys every reference class we have for alternative asset ETFs. GLD in 2013 lost 28% and saw $25 billion in redemptions. IBIT loses 10% and adds $25 billion. If this flow elasticity holds and BTC prints a 40% year in 2026, you’re looking at $60 to $80 billion in inflows and a straight shot past $150 billion AUM. BlackRock isn’t building an ETF. They’re building the fourth pillar of the 60/40 portfolio, and this chart is the first hard proof that the institutional bid won’t flinch when the tape gets ugly.

NiagaraBTC

The average person can choose to own IBIT or FBTC. >which is not something that makes most people feel safe about having it.  That's totally fine. Not everyone is cut out for holding self-sovereign Bitcoin.

ChaoticDad21

No offense to you, but your reading comprehension is terrible. I said it MIGHT retest it, not that I predict it will. If we do rise in price, I think AT BEST it will hit the IBIT 200ma, but won’t hit the BTC 200ma. I do not predict that either will happen tho. I’m sorry that English is hard for you.

ChaoticDad21

Look up the moving averages, homie…they’re not the same because IBIT doesn’t trade on weekends

ChaoticDad21

It might test the 200ma on IBIT soon, but probably not BTC.