IBIT

KiNg-MaK3R

Good point OP. Also genuine question and not sure if anyone knows this - how about the spot ETFs? I've got some bitcoin in IBIT in my retirement account. Is that basically like bitcoin on the exchange as well as also leveraged against using derivatives?

moonape6969

IBIT under $40 is a great but long term, 4-8 years.

C_B_Doyle

Bitcoin crashes when volume dries up because low volume means buyers vanished, so one seller can slam price lower, while stocks usually hold up because forced buyers create a floor.Bitcoin doesn’t make money, doesn’t own anything, and doesn’t pay you anything. The price moves because people feel like buying it. When they don’t, bids disappear and it can fall fast. 🐻 Timeline 2008 – White paper by “Satoshi Nakamoto.” 2009 – Network launches. No business, no revenue, just code + scarcity. 2009–2010 – Early names: Hal Finney, Adam Back, Nick Szabo, Wei Dai. Satoshi’s early coins never move. 2011 – Len Sassaman (close to Finney) dies. Some people guess he could be Satoshi. No proof. 2014–2016 – Epstein invests in Coinbase/Blockstream and is linked to Sharia-compliant crypto pitches (which avoid interest and prefer real assets). That actually shows the problem: Bitcoin is intangible and has no yield. 2017–2018 – McAfee hype era. Big talk, big promotion, classic pump cycles. 2020–now – Michael Saylor goes all-in. ETFs/funds show up. More money comes in, but now you also get custody and counterparty risk. Bitcoin is a digital token. It has no assets, no cash flow, no yield, and no floor. Not useful money for stores: too volatile, taxed, slow, and everyone still needs fiat. No real smart contracts on the base layer. Anything fancy needs layers or custodians → more moving parts, more risk. How the Price Really Works Price = last trade. “Market cap” is just math, not value. Bitcoin’s buyers are mostly speculators. Low volume alone doesn’t crash price. Crashes happen when bids get pulled. When the order book gets thin, the next real bid can be way lower → air pockets and gap-downs. Stocks usually have buyers (buybacks, value funds, insiders, index funds). Bitcoin doesn’t. There’s no natural floor. Custody Is a Minefield Your keys = your money. Lose them and it’s gone forever. People use hardware wallets, metal seed plates, passwords. Still easy to mess up. Public blockchain: transactions are traceable. Privacy is weak. Hacks happen: phishing, SIM swaps, malware, exchange failures. Lost coins: a big chunk of supply is already gone → fake scarcity, worse liquidity. KYC ties your identity to wallets. ETFs/funds (like IBIT) add fees, counterparty risk, and rehypothecation risk. The Big Economic Problem No earnings. No assets. No yield. No valuation anchor. Demand is belief-driven. If belief fades, buyers vanish. With no floor, price can fall to almost any level. Early holders only win if new buyers keep showing up. Nothing productive supports the price. Bottom Line Bitcoin is an intangible, no-cash-flow, no-yield asset with fragile, sentiment-driven liquidity. It’s hard to secure, easy to mess up, and has no natural buyers when things go bad. The price runs on hype and inflows. When that stops, it can drop fast. In practice, it behaves like a high-risk speculative pump-and-dump, not real money.

CoffeeAlternative647

>The money printer (inflation) sucks. You can keep purchasing power up by investing in a broad market index ETF. Not with the performance of Bitcoin. In ETF's specifically, winners pay for the losers. The S&P for example is just a mirror of the money printer. > Do you mean circumventing laws? >How often do you transfer your complete wealth btw? Seems like a niche. >I travel with just my phone, with a digital credit card, with all currencies. No issues. I do not mean circumvent laws. I mean soverignty. There will be a time in my life I will have to hand my entire wealth to my spouse and kids. Rather do it without the interference of any government. Again, sovereignty. Good, till your bank closes your account for no reason and you wait months for them to settle and hand you your funds. This application is full of complaints from apps like Revolut that suddenly closes their accounts and lock their funds for months. > I would rather give them my money and live (!) and get the money back from my bank via insurance. Still, you're putting way to much trust on a 3rd parties that is not certain to refund you. You pay big premiums for something that's not certain. Once you put your money in a bank, its their money, not yours. I'd rather have responsability on my money instead of hand that responsability at a cost, to some people that I do not know. > Bitcoin ETFs (e.g. IBIT) make it very easy for investors to invest in Bitcoin. If you buy IBIT you're buying an IOU that gives you exposure to Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin isn't something you invest. Bitcoin is money. You save in Bitcoin.

TheresNoSecondBest

>The money printer (inflation) sucks. You can keep purchasing power up by investing in a broad market index ETF. Not everyone can. The poorer you get, the less choices you have. The poorest cannot even open a bank account and are forced to save in cash, getting to hit the hardest. >Do you mean circumventing laws? Like the example of supporting a military of attacked country, I've linked earlier. >How often do you transfer your complete wealth btw? Seems like a niche. He's not talking about complete wealth. In the majority of cases it's about a small portion, while **knowing I can access to all of it if needed. Common people living in Ukraine can't.** >I travel with just my phone, with a digital credit card, with all currencies. No issues. There are many companies like Conbase, offering the same for bitcoin. No issues, if you're happy with someone else holding your money. >I would rather give them my money and live (!) and get the money back from my bank via insurance. The same is AGAIN, doable with bitcoin, having it in an account with a custodians. Also, once you give them your money, why would they let you live? >Bitcoin ETFs (e.g. IBIT) make it very easy for investors to invest in Bitcoin. There you have it, mate. Bitcoin at a custodian. Go nuts, if you like other people holding your money. Some of us are responsible enough to take care of our money despite the "negatives".

9xD4aPHdEeb

> Bitcoin is a monetary system outside the traditional rotten money printer system that sucks your purchasing power over time, punishing savers and rewarding spenders. Your work is rewarded with something that someone can print endlessly and effortlessly with a push of a button. The money printer (inflation) sucks. You can keep purchasing power up by investing in a broad market index ETF. > you don't need permission to access, transfer or use your wealth. Do you mean circumventing laws? How often do you transfer your complete wealth btw? Seems like a niche. I travel with just my phone, with a digital credit card, with all currencies. No issues. > Its also inconfiscable that even if someone points a gun to your head they can't access it unless they negotiate with you. They kill you, no access. We can discuss either someone is willing to die for their wealth, but thats another topic. Personally, my family can access my BTC without asking me anything, so if someone kills me to access my BTC it will be in vain for them and my family has total access to it. You can also easily use decoy wallets and hide the real cake while hand the cherry to the thief. I would rather give them my money and live (!) and get the money back from my bank via insurance. > Bitcoin is a one of a kind asset and it still is out of reach for the vast majority of people to wrap their heads around it no matter how intelligent these people are. Bitcoin ETFs (e.g. IBIT) make it very easy for investors to invest in Bitcoin.

PassengerRecent7002

This highlights the impact of Gamma Squeezes and Delta Hedging in regulated markets. Unlike native crypto perps, ETF options force Market Makers (MMs) to buy/sell the underlying ETF shares to remain neutral. When the BTC price dropped, MMs' delta exposure decreased rapidly, forcing them to dump excess IBIT shares into a thin market to stay hedged. Combined with the Yen Carry Trade unwinding (increasing borrowing costs), this created a liquidity trap. While crypto Twitter looks for on-chain whale movements, the real selling pressure originated from institutional delta-neutral rebalancing in the TradFi plumbing.

DA2710

I had an ultra high net worth mentor type call me on Friday and ask me how to buy bitcoin. He’s 71, mega wealthy from real estate. Has white glove service at Goldman Sachs etc. He really didn’t know that you can download an app like river or Coinbase and was completely unaware of IBIT. We tend to think Bitcoin is prolific and everyone knows or has thought about it. I’m guilty of this. But hearing his genuine lack of knowledge or awareness was a positive sign to me how truly early we are. The older cohort doesn’t take risks , doesn’t look for new ideas , they wait for their advisors to tell them or they hear something from a friend and maybe then. When we have had some time to educate this cohort it will be a positive catalyst that’s silent but moves the needle.

OkSeries5363

"lol the APs are ALL hedge funds" Nope they arent? The IBIT APs include JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and UBS. These are G SIBs global systemically important banks. Under basel III regulations these banks face a 1250% risk weight on Bitcoin. This means for every $1 of Bitcoin they hold they have to set aside $12.50 of their own cash as a penalty. It is mathematically and legally impossible for them to hold it for a few hours to see if they can make a buck. "lol these corporations have trillions" You are fundamentally confusing AUM assets under management with corporate balace sheet. BlackRock has trillions in AUM but that is other people's money they cant legally buy bitcoin with other peoples assets. A JPMorgan trading desk has a limited amount of the banks own cash. You are describing an insane business model where a bank 1. Sees the retail market panic selling Bitcoin. 2. Uses its own limited corporate cash to buy those falling shares. 3. Receives the Bitcoin and holds it while the price continues to crash. Think about that. You are arguing that the worlds smartest banks make money by catching a falling knife with their own capital. If they dont sell that Bitcoin immediately to recoup their USD, they run out of cash and their desk goes insolvent. No bank on earth stays in business by trading away liquid USD for a falling volatile asset just to see what happens. That isnt a strategy its a suicide mission. They arent speculators they are a toll bridge. They receive the Bitcoin dump it on the open market immediately to get their cash back and keep the tiny $0.01 spread. The proof is in the NAV tracking. If the APs were waiting like you suggest the ETF would be a disaster that didnt track the price.

CryptigoVespucci

I'd guess it's probably still higher than it's ever been. A bunch of people got liquidated and had to sell, but the ETF outflows actually haven't been that crazy. Pretty sure Blackrock's IBIT saw net inflows on the worst day of the sell-off.

ProfessorBagholder

Bitcoin is not a company and does not have a "product". If you care about owning Bitcoin and its underlying ethos, then self-custody is the only play. >Does self custody still matter once you start using financial products Maybe you can elaborate as to what exactly you mean about using financial products. If one is getting exposure to Bitcoin via an ETF such as IBIT or FBTC, is that "using financial products"? Without more context it seems like a strange question to even ask. Whether one might opt to utilize one of those ETFs for example is not mutually exclusive to somebody else preferring to self-custody.

Ok-Sympathy9768

Yup.. I believe you are right about the 4 years cycle .. denial or conviction, call it what you want, I should have recognized the signs before it dipped below 100k… cost me well over a million in profit.. cashed out in tranches at 90k,80k,75k, and 69k(last ATH).. a majority of buys were lump sum at 3k, and 16k, with small amounts DCAd over that timeframe .. the last of my holdings, a small amount of exposure in IBIT ETF, equivalent to about 2 whole coins, is getting sold in about 5 minutes when the market opens (can’t go broke taking a profit)… good luck to everyone on their BTC journey…

WorthwhileDomains

I've been holding since 2020, but this one hurt pretty bad, considering I had loads of IBIT calls for March and June.. now all almost worthless

fucken_jim

If reading seems complicated then Bitcoin isn't for you. It defeats the whole purpose of Bitcoin, but if you want exposure, buy IBIT

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Post is by: Own-Cartographer409 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qzt7zi/why_did_bitcoin_crash_etfs_options_global_macro/ Why did Bitcoin crash? Not panic. A leverage blow-up. This drop came from ETFs + options + global macro colliding. Hong Kong hedge funds loaded up on deep OTM call options on IBIT, funded by yen carry trade money, betting on a short-term BTC moon. What went wrong • BTC failed to rebound • Yen carry trade worsened → funding costs jumped • Funds also had silver exposure • Added leverage to recover losses • Margin calls hit • Forced liquidations followed • Large IBIT selling spilled into spot BTC Why no one saw it This wasn’t on-chain. It happened in spot ETFs + ETF options. Key difference vs the past CME options were cash-settled → no need to trade real BTC. ETF options are linked 1:1 to spot ETFs. The mechanical part • Deep OTM calls → low delta → MMs bought little IBIT (quiet on entry) • BTC dropped → delta → 0, gamma collapsed • MMs were stuck with excess IBIT • To stay delta-neutral, they mechanically sold into a falling market Quiet on the way up Violent on the way down Takeaway Opacity + leverage + ETF options is dangerous. This crash makes a strong case for putting ETFs and options on-chain. Just a theory, but cleaner than most narratives out there *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

harvested

Bitcoin + IBIT + MSTR + STRC = full diversification 🤣

Power_Drawing6025

IBIT and FBTC (ETF funds) $25K in each.

CapitalDeal1655

Thanks for this, I have a decent amount of IBIT in trading 212 ISA already. I have looked into the new updates for this, and apparently most likely scenario will be that purchases of IBIT in S&S ISA will be able to be grandfathered/remain, but new IBIT buys will have to be under the IFISA. Trading 212 have confirmed that a forced sell is unlikely at this point, but even just this BS makes the whole 'not your keys not your coins' saying more true lmao.

uncapchad

From **6 April 2026**, crypto ETNs held in Stocks & Shares ISAs will be reclassified as **Innovative Finance ISA (IFISA)** investments.  This change may affect platform availability, and some platforms may not support IFISAs, potentially forcing investors to sell or transfer holding If you're considering crypto exposure in an ISA, cETNs from providers like 21Shares, WisdomTree, or ETC Group are currently the only eligible options. IBIT remains excluded from UK ISAs due to regulatory incompatibility

Detstar

Genuine question, how does this argument apply to BTC funds like FBTC and IBIT?

EcstaticCell1511

Id rather hold IBIT than hold bitcoin on exchanges imo.

JuanPabloEscobar

Same people bashing this statement are the ones scolding people for wanting to buy IBIT. Community is toxic to anyone who actually wants to invest in btc, then complain when people don't adopt. Plus, majority of people on this sub probably have less than 0.1 btc and act like they are going to change the world

Sir_Richard_Dangler

I only have bitcoin in my Roth IRA (IBIT) No taxes and I have no reason to be tempted to sell for the next 30 years. If I'm low on funds, I'll work harder.

watch-nerd

They're correct. HK hedge fund was levered to the tits on IBIT once the cap was removed.

Ok-Sympathy9768

I lump summed at 3k .. and again at 16k… my goal was 10 million.. I lost all perspective..watched well over a million in profits dwindle away because of conviction .. so pissed and regret I didn’t sell at 100k.. started offloading in tranches- a chunk at 90k, then 80k, then 75k, and the last of the stack at 69k( except for a minimal amount in a ETF-IBIT).. that’s it, my btc journey concluded this past week..a little sadness and feeling a depressed never was able to hit my btc 10million goal… but not hodling through another BTC winter.. had to take profits and live life…

Away_Vermicelli5602

Buy IBIT in that case on margin, same as buying bitcoin. Only difference is you can’t get out or buy 24 hours

Swanky_Gear_Snob

Institutional crypto has turned into a machine that extracts value from retail. Spot ETFs like BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC, CME futures, options, perpetual swaps and structured products let funds profit from volatility, crashes and liquidations through shorts, leverage and basis trades. Price is driven by derivatives desks and macro flows, not real usage. A small group of custodians and institutions hold huge portions of supply, while paper Bitcoin and rehypothecation dilute the scarcity narrative. We have already seen how this ends for retail with FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, Terra and countless liquidation cascades. People lose everything while funds collect fees and trading profits either way. The tech side is not immune either. AI is accelerating exploit discovery and protocol attacks. Quantum computing is a real long term risk to current cryptography and signatures. If large scale quantum becomes practical, much of today’s blockchain security model is compromised. The reality is decentralization is shrinking, financialization is total, and the security assumptions are not permanent. Crypto is increasingly just another Wall Street asset class where retail takes the risk and institutions extract the value.

EyeSea7923

I actually bought for the first time. Long calls on IBIT, and a couple puts end of yesterday to straddle that may not count here. Nonetheless, it felt like a good price point to take a risk. I think there are better risks to reward ratios out there, but volatility can be our friend.

lukypunchy

I'd love to find out if this dip was the fault of some foreign trad-fi being too leveraged into IBIT

bansoma

I have both. Mostly for tax purposes, though custody and survivorship play into this as well. Less taxes = more buying. 30 years from now with high gains this will be a pittance, a small price to pay for ROTH untaxable BTC-like holdings. Just keep in mind that GLD and SLV are currently delivering for \~+5% over spot price when buying physical rather than the paper asset. Similar things will likely happen with IBIT if you ever try to request physical(electronic) delivery -- you won't get the full 100% of value, you'll get something else... I wouldn't neglect holding pure BTC. If it isn't your keys it isn't your crypto at the end of the day.

bbatardo

Here are mine. I use IBIT puts to short and some I paper hand too early lol https://i.redd.it/kdotoelk3yhg1.gif

R3dFiveStandingBye

I bought two shares of IBIT at 60k last night. I saved the market. Nice.

SeveredBrain2020

> I either keep the premium or get the coin How? I mean, I can sell a put on IBIT, but that doesn’t get me a UTXO

SeveredBrain2020

> I either keep the premium or get the coin How? I mean, I can sell a put on IBIT, but that doesn’t get me a UTXO

OpticallyMosache

Did my first conversion of VTI to IBIT in my Roth IRA. Proud owner of 100 IBIT (proxy for real BTC) The way I view it is I have enough native BTC to capture the value of holding a truly bearer asset on a permisionless monetary network. These BTC should never be sold. But then there's an aspect of wanting to ride the upside of BTC's price appreciation. Holding something like IBIT provides this plus I get a 1099 issued if I ever sell which makes tax reporting easy. Anyway, always felt IBIT was wrong but it's not necessarily wrong if you're buying some BTC for NGU technology.

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OpticallyMosache

My only source of big funds is in my IRA which holds VOO. I think I'll start swapping VOO for IBIT tomorrow. These prices were unthinkable three months ago.

OpticallyMosache

I have VOO in an IRA that I'm going to start swapping to IBIT tomorrow.

Responsible_Grape813

[https://optioncharts.io/options/IBIT/max-pain](https://optioncharts.io/options/IBIT/max-pain) was that the panic flush?

csever31

That’s exactly what I did. FBTC to IBIT

Redditreader805

Short answer: Over the last month, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has seen net outflows in the range of roughly $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion in Bitcoin redemptions. This reflects investors pulling capital from the fund, and those redemptions are what drives on-chain BTC liquidations — not BlackRock itself making a strategic sale.  In terms of Bitcoin quantity, using a price range typical for the period (~$70,000 to $80,000 per BTC), that equates to roughly 14,000 to 18,000 BTC redeemed or liquidated from the ETF on behalf of outgoing investors over the past month.

cruxtone

https://x.com/i/status/2019530503674568995 $10B in IBIT volume today. Assume we're dropping to catch the bid. Thin all the way down.

cruxtone

Here's my assessment of the news: $10B IBIT volume (at least there's a buyer for every seller) $56B in customer reserves withdrawn from Binance over the last few weeks (maybe Binance was rehypothecating user funds and are selling to cover. $2.2B longs liquidated

LargeSnorlax

If you desperately want exposure to Bitcoin that bad, why not just buy Bitcoin when it's that low? Or if you want to keep it institutional, why not something like IBIT? MSTR is just a scheme set up on top of an existing asset, if the whole point is to get exposure to a risky asset, you may as well just the asset itself

Backrus

Check my reply below, where I called collapse the moment IBIT cost basis breaks down. Traders trade, KOLs larp - they live off your engagement and paid groups. Influencers aren't your friends, you're their exit liquidity.

BreatheInExhaleAway

I hear ya man, I dumped a big amount in IBIT, due to FOMO, should have just stuck with my consistent DCA plan and stayed steady. That dump is crap, my DCA although modest had low average buy amt

dweeegs

I’m also very confused where this is coming from. I thought IBIT, MSTR, and the other companies/ETF’s were getting a mix from miners and from companies that buy spot on their behalf. But they were being purchased far faster than it’s mined IBIT is the fastest growing ETF of all time (by orders of magnitude) and touched $100B back in October. That’s a lot of OTC to be changing hands

Matty0417

I’m starting to nibble on the etfs. I know I should be buying Bitcoin directly (and I am) but no way I’m letting below $35 IBIT pass by. If it gets to $20 I’m backing the truck up haha 😂

Civitas_Futura

If you want short term gain, you can short or buy puts against the ETFs and companies like Strategy. I think we need to see what happens with those holders. We're in the range where forced selling will accelerate as all of the shares of funds like IBIT go into the red since they were launched. I think we'll see a mass exodus of many mainstream participants who entered the market the last few years thru mainstream channels as all of their gains have now turned to losses.

aaj094

IBIT on track to beating its daily volume record by a long way. Over $7 billion already with 110 minutes to go for close.

MGreymanN

IBIT is good for traders since it has higher liquidity they rely on coin base. Fidelity and FBIT own their own coins. So long term, I prefer that.

Gh0st_Pirate_LeChuck

Sold some VTI and gonna buy some IBIT. Now where the hell is the bottom? Lol Should probably just pull the trigger and not try to time it.

tbiscus

Hmmm...may have to pull the trigger on a Roth conversion of my IBIT here...

chud_the_gluttonous

IBIT ?

NatBitty

I might be the last IBIT holder left in profit soon. Needs to stay above $41k

dweeegs

IBIT doing its daily average volume within an 50 minutes of the market opening

Excellent_Growth3952

Can someone help me with how to do better. I bought IBIT when it was 61 and then DCA until 52. I started investing last year. I am not immediate need of cash. Now IBIT has fallen to 38 ish. I am wondering should I buy or still quietly. or something else.

Gh0st_Pirate_LeChuck

Buy IBIT

Revolutionary_Sea159

I invest in IBIT etf, if you want to buy Bitcoin, there are a lot of options like binamce, etc...

CIM2000

0 direct fee but the MER of the etf is 0.33% -- IBIT-C I use Disnat and I can only buy ETF with spot bitcoin to have the exposure.

Putrid_Pollution3455

That’s not true. It works as currency better than gold and silver for personal transactions, that’s good enough. Spot price IBIT is up 36% since inception a couple years ago. Now that it’s maturing the gains and swings won’t be as diabolical but this is the future reserve asset of the world. It’ll be a lovely experiment where we all can win again

NatBitty

My IBIT position is down $700k from October peak lol.

Fear_Blind83

You mean Blackrock's IBIT ETF customers sold.. https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf

Internet_is_tough

Institutions sell - The most relevant institutions are bitcoin treasuries. There has been only one sale of BTC from 200 crypto treasuries in 2025. MSTR is a ticking time bomb - MSTR is 10% levered into their BTC purchases with convertible dept and payable dividends. They already have enough cash to cover the dividends for 2 years, the convertible dept needs to be serviced in tranches starting at 2028, and they can easily roll it over. MSTR will not sell a single bitcoin unless BTC price goes below 25k and stays there for a decade ETF inflows do not go up - IBIT was the most successful ETF launch in history. In the history of the world. 1.5 years after all big financial institutions have launched or are launching multiple BTC related ETFs (income, leverage, non leverage, crypto industry etc). Sounds like a failure right? Treasuries dumping - The treasury business model has no dumping as part of the strategy - MSTR has survived the crypto winter, prices well below their average buy price, BTC sold? ZERO. Treasuries are lean companies, BMNR is run by 10 people. They don't need cash. They have no reason to dump besides buying their own shares if MNAV is way below 1. Leverage is insane. 10/10 event was the single biggest liquidation event in history. All the leverage has been wiped from the system. The only leverage actually left is short. QE - irrelevant speculative. So yes wrong on 6/6 points.

CAFN8TD

You could also just ride the momentum down by buying IBIT puts then once it bottoms out, close the put and buy back BTC where it forms support. Just saying.

CAFN8TD

Been buying IBIT puts. So far it's been working out. Wondering how much lower it can go.

MonkeyKing676

I hoping that since I'm investing in MSTR and IBIT, they end up moving right along with Bitcoin

Vaginosis-Psychosis

Nope. I just buy ₿ and move to cold storage. I have IBIT in my Roth IRA and Roth 401k

Emotional_Union_3758

Thank you. I have only invested in IBIT in my personal account. My 401k does allow self-directed contributions, but I have not tried it, so I wasn't sure.

BeachedinToronto

Here come the 60's. I keep telling myself IBIT is the Harvard Endowment's biggest single stock holding and they are wicked smart right?

Emotional_Union_3758

Can't you already do this with IBIT?

NatBitty

Up 100% on ETHD now and 200% on MSTR 4/17 puts. Have completely offset and even gained above my IBIT losses. Thank you traditional finance for giving me these tools!

EcstaticCell1511

Not too familiar with deribit. I'd rather do CSPs with IBIT.

HodlPackLeader

That makes sense. ETF flows are probably the cleanest signal right now, especially with IBIT leading the volume. Waiting for redemptions to slow before assuming a floor feels reasonable. I’m less focused on catching an exact bottom and more on whether selling pressure is exhausting rather than reversing. Even neutral days would say a lot. Curious though — do you treat ETF flows as a timing tool, or more as confirmation after price stabilizes?

knightsone43

Lmao Bitcoin is not still early. Every boomer has IBIT now. Gone are the days you described. It’s a major part of the system you said it was created to be against

Moon-Hodler174

I’m looking at the BlackRock (IBIT) data daily right now. We’ve seen nearly $6B leave the ETF complex since November. Until those redemptions turn into even modest net-neutral days, it’s hard to believe the floor is in. I’d rather miss the first 5% of the bounce than catch a falling knife that's being driven by institutional de-risking.

zzx101

If you sell one ETF at a loss and immediately buy a different one would that be a wash sale? For example sell IBIT and buy FBTC.

OkSeries5363

I see the issue. ​You are still describing a hedge fund, a speculator but we are talking about market makers, the plumbing. Those are two completely different business models with different rules. BlackRock is the Sponsor. They created the ETF. They are legally forbidden from being the AP for their own fund because that would be a massive conflict of interest. When you sell your ETF shares you arent selling them back to BlackRock. You are selling them on an exchange. The AP takes that share to blackrock and says I dont want this. Give me the underlying Bitcoin. BlackRock cancels the share and hands the AP the Bitcoin. Now the AP has Bitcoin but they need their cash back to keep their business running. So they sell that Bitcoin on the open market immediately. If this happened slowly the ETF would fail to track the underlying.  ​'Holding for a few hours to avoid losses' That is objectively false. Read the risk factors in the official IBIT Prospectus. Blackrock explicitly warns that the ETFs value relies on APs being able to liquidate Bitcoin quickly to maintain the link between the share price and the BTC price. If an AP waits a few hours to see if they can make a gain they are violating their mandate to keep the ETF price tracked to the underlying. They are failing at their one job. Providing liquidity. Its also a misunderstanding of institutional risk. APs like JPMorgan or Jane Street operate under strict VaR limits. If an AP receives $100 million dollars in BTC and waits a few hours to see if the price goes up they are taking an unhedged directional bet with the banks own capital. Risk departments dont allow wait and see they require delta neutrality. They sell or hedge instantly because their profit comes from the arbitrage spread not the price move. In high finance learning to fly with the firms liquidity is a firing offense.    ​'They choose the price' Bitcoin is a global commodity. If an AP tries to sell $100M of BTC above the market price at their own prerogative, nobody will buy it. They sell into the global spot market at the prevailing bid because they need to settle the cash side of the trade immediately. They dont choose the price any more than you choose the price of a stock when you hit the market sell button. ​The cash loop issue This is the part you arent understanding. If the AP doesnt sell the Bitcoin where do they get the cash to pay the next thousand retail investors who want to sell? Thats their whole job. When retail sells the ETF the AP uses their own cash to buy those shares. They then hand those shares to Blackrock to get the Bitcoin. At this point the AP is out of cash and long Bitcoin. To stay in business they must sell that Bitcoin to get their cash back so they can facilitate the next trade. If they dont sell the Bitcoin they are just sitting there with a drained bank account and a pile of crypto. They are a bank not a holder.  Your missing the clearest evidence we have! How in sync the APs keep the price. The fact that iBIT maintains such a tight tracking error to its NAV is proof that the arbitrage mechanism is working exactly as intended. APs arent holding for a better exit they are executing high speed delta neutral arbitrage. Their objective is to capture the spread while minimizing exposure to the underlying assets volatility. If they waited for a better price as you suggest the ETF share price would decouple from the Bitcoin price creating a massive discount or premium. The near perfect tracking we see is the result of APs clearing their inventory immediately to recoup liquidity and eliminate price risk. ​You are arguing about what a speculator could do if they wanted to gamble, Im simply explaining what a liquidity provider must do to remain an AP. If they dont sell the underlying they arent an AP anymore they are just a very unhedged hedge fund.

Chemfreak

I have two plays that I am long on for basically the foreseeable future, BTC and 1 other stock I don't really want to disclose. I have been trimming my position in one or the other when the other position is "overvalued" relative to the normal spread between the two. Thing is, it feels so much better holding the stock because I sell CCs on it. Like right now the spread is great and I should be dumping more into BTC but the "passive" gains of the CC are so attractive. So this literally changes a lot, I can start selling CCs on both ends, and if I ride too close to the sun and the calls end in the money, well it likely will be a good opportunity to go into the other anyway because if I'm forced to give up my shares that means the spread had to have increased in my favor. Unless of course both rocket up... And yea, I do hold leaps too so I may have to do that with IBIT, which would reduce some of the "risk" of both positions going on a crazy run.

Cold_Respond_7656

Yeah PMCC on IBIT is a great way to cover this downturn with income just to buy more, long as you actively manage the positions. Just make sure LEAPs are deep ITM and short side is always above break even

Chemfreak

Wait, IBIT has options available? I thought there were no options for these ETFs...

NorthvilleGolf

Proud to finally be an owner of .1 BTC by way of IBIT.

CatchAfilM

Just less than 10%. Looking forward for what this asset could establish. Will it be tokenized by institutes, what will the mining situation leads. It has a decent potential to what I think, however, I still not feel sure with strong invested with the crypto. (I own $IBIT not bitcoin)

global_hodl

On reason you might want to hold IBIT is if you want to write covered calls on IBIT and generate income that can be used to buy more every month

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. experienced significant outflows of $1.49 billion from January 26 to 30, 2026, marking one of their worst weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone accounted for $947.2 million in redemptions, equivalent to 11,170 BTC sold. Ethereum ETFs also saw $327 million in outflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA ETF losing $264 million. The sell-off was driven by Bitcoin falling below $85,000, market volatility, and institutional investors reducing exposure to risky assets. This trend raises concerns about the resilience of ETF structures under prolonged pressure. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

FirstAmendmentIsDead

75% BTC, 5% IBIT, 15% S&P 500, 5% cash

Geo_Mostovoi

There’s a lot of misinformation in the idea that Bitcoin can just magically go to $0 because it’s “only belief.” For BTC to hit zero, every single person, miner, developer, institution, and ETF would have to abandon it — not just bearish sentiment. That’s an insanely high bar. Plus, BTC isn’t pure vapor — it provides real technical utility (permissionless settlement, censorship resistance, global transfers), which means it can be used even if markets aren’t euphoric. Institutional involvement also puts a structural floor under the narrative, even if prices are volatile. Traditional finance is already embedded in BTC ownership via regulated products: • BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF together hold well over a million BTC in U.S. spot ETFs, with BlackRock alone holding the largest share (~748,000 BTC and Fidelity ~200,000 BTC) — a significant institutional accumulation backed by real money on behalf of investors.  Those aren’t just Twitter bulls — those are regulated asset managers running ETFs for pensions, endowments, wealth clients, and institutions. That doesn’t guarantee BTC goes up, but it absolutely weakens the case that it can simply evaporate to zero. So while “$0 vs $100k” is a fun meme, the realistic argument isn’t that symmetric. Structural demand exists, even if the price is still sentiment-driven and leveraged. Keeping a small, measured position — like you have — is the rational take, not claiming either extreme as a certitude.

jwz9904

IBIT investors are underwater now.

double_r76

10% in IBIT plus smaller positions in MSTR and BTCI

JesC929

Why not just buy IBIT directly from your 401k so you’re still in a non-taxable acct

TheCatOfWallSt

My 401k is 100% IBIT. Bought just under 4000 shares (about $250k worth) when IBIT was over $63 😂. I’m still young, not worried in the slightest. I keep buying $500 more every two weeks. It isn’t as bad as it sounds though, I was only at $50k in mid-2023 and made most of my gains on BITO and then IBIT right when it launched. Sold several times and rebought along the way.

blackjackn

Totally did this. I rolled over an old 401k to a Fidelity IRA and bought all FBTC/IBIT when Bitcoin was at $104k. 😮

zzseayzz

Already 100% Bitcoin hodlin' in 401k - IBIT, MSTR, MARA, XXI

pablo_in_blood

I think he’s saying he would buy IBIT or FBTC in his 401k, not withdraw. But most (all?) 401ks don’t actually allow that. Only works in a Roth IRA (or maybe other types of IRAs, haven’t checked) in the US

ippleing

IBIT is tracking BTC. It will be trading around 30 if BTC goes that low.

_father_time

You think IBIT is going that low?

NorthvilleGolf

I truly believe that ever since the ETFs went mainstream, it simply will not drop into the $20’s again. At most like a 45-50% crash from the previous $120k ATH to low 60’s. I wish the market was open today so I could buy more IBIT right now.

NorthvilleGolf

Wish I could buy IBIT today.

badpopeye

Sold my IBIT last week

danhoyle

Just buy IBIT.