SPY

No-Average3202

Everyone was blaming Trump and the tariff for the dump, but now SPY is at an all-time high, so how does that make sense? Maybe it wasn’t because of Trump or tariff after all???

Glum-Wealth-6171

Lol timber!! Meanwhile SPY is gonna hit 630 today. Up 2% and 10% on the month...

HotInvestigator7486

SPY keeps making new ATH. We are cooked if there is a market drawdown. Alts will vanish

MrSir6t4

When I learned about BTC Sold all of my SPY

chi_guy8

Not quite. One reason Bitcoin appears to be appreciating is that the U.S. dollar is losing purchasing power. In many ways, Bitcoin’s rise reflects the debasement of fiat currencies rather than pure real growth. Similarly, long-term returns in the S&P 500 (e.g., $SPY) often reflect capital preservation in real terms rather than substantial real gains. While Bitcoin has increased in real terms, a portion of its perceived appreciation is simply a reflection of nominal differences between BTC and USD. When someone like Michael Saylor projects future Bitcoin valuations (e.g., $1 million per BTC), those forecasts often assume significant dollar devaluation. In that context, $1 million in the future may have the purchasing power of only $500,000 today. So while the nominal price may rise, much of that gain may be a function of inflation and currency debasement rather than a true increase in intrinsic value, though it is increasing in real terms as well.

BitcoinBaller420

You’ve missed the point. You can measure buying power in whatever you want. SPY and Bitcoin are priced in yen too. The question is the final buying power of the money, and assuming it’s going to be “all the wealth of the world” isn’t Hal’s most clever moment. 

chatrep

I think this is huge… I meet so many people globally that want to invest in US stocks and ETF’s. Think SPY/VOO, Tesla, Google, Nvidia, etc. As far as I know, this will be the easiest way to access US markets.

hurfery

And the USD has lost 10% of its value in 5 months, so we're not really close to a debasement adjusted ATH for BTC or SPY.

turribledood

Because it's all just monetary supply fuckery. M2 supply is at ATH, and guess what? So is BTC and SPY!

SpontaneousDream

Well for starters BTC is up 60% on the year. SPY up 13%, Nasdaq 15%, DJIA 12% on the year. That doesn't even mention things like MSTR, NVIDIA, etc. All of equities are up. Trump has been talking about replacing him for well over a year. This is not "new news". In any case, news has picked up more recently but I think it's mostly priced in at this point. Everyone knew it would only be a matter of time until he replaced Powell.

dataCollector42069

I have six figure returns on just the SPY not including other equity and crypto exposure. Have fun once the music stops in crypto though :)

SpontaneousDream

HAHAHA BRO...let me give you some facts: * SPY 10 Year Performance: 246%, 13% CAGR * BTC 10 Year Performance: 45,000%, 136% CAGR Lmao stay poor

dataCollector42069

I been doing quite good the past 10 years putting money into the SPY every two weeks, but thanks.

eupherein

Back then there was no “cycle.” Just people who mined from $0.002 per, up to $30 in, and back down below $5 all within the same 4 years. r/Buttcoin was created during this time when a majority of people in this sub today, would have likely agreed with their sentiment. No one who sold at any price was an idiot, and anyone who held all the way up/down/up was quite honestly insane, and at best, extremely imaginative. No one could have imagined the ticker being next to the S&P and NASDAQ on new stations, with treasury companies and exchanges listed in QQQ and SPY. Just DCA lol

hiddenintheleavess

Everyone will say more BTC. IMO, Eth is worth holding as it’s essentially the second best behind BTC. Sol I would probably sell but it has potential for growth. IMO, I’d sell the RMNBY and VOO- if you want SP exposure I’d go SPY over VOO unless you’re holding for like 15 plus years. NVDA is probably a keeper, short or long term. GPUs are not going away anytime soon. TLDR: Sell the SOL, RMNBY and VOO. Consider SPY and buy BTC for the rest.

JudgeCheezels

Even TA hasn’t really been a religiously followed principle with stocks lately. Penny stocks DGAF about TA, the newest meme coin aka SPY moves on a fucking tweet. So yeah, TA should really only be referred to when swing trading or leaps.

biba8163

| | 3-Month | 6-month | 1-YR | |:-----------|:-----------:|:------------:|:------------:| | BTC | 30%| 12.7% | 77.8% | SPY | 13%| 4.54% | 13% | QQQ | 14%| 6.3% | 14.4%

Alfador8

1 week: BTC: +1.8%, SPY +3.5% 1 month: BTC -1.2%, SPY +4% 6 months: BTC +12%, SPY +3% 1 year: BTC +75.3%, SPY +12.8% Your thesis is based on SPY's slightly better performance than a notoriously volatile asset on a one month time frame?

Alfador8

BTC 1 week: +1.8% SPY 1 week: +3.5% BTC 1 month: -1.2% SPY 1 month: +4% BTC 6 months: +12% SPY 6 months: +3% BTC 1year: +75.3% SPY 1 year: 12.8% Your thesis is based on SPY's slightly better performance than a notoriously volatile asset on a one month time frame?

Lord_Alamar

WHERE ARE THE STOCK BEARS WHERE IS YOUR SAFE HAVEN ASSST Looks like they're wrong again folks it's just another WIN for US STOCKS WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE THANK YOU SPY THANK YOU NASDAQ THANK YOU DOW WOOOOOOOOO STOCK BULLS WIN STOCK BEARS LOSE CRYPTO BULLS LOSE CRYPTO BEARS WIN USA USA USA

Suspicious-Holiday42

you mean, dollar is going down. Thats why SPY goes up

Glum-Wealth-6171

Kind of terrifying markets rn. SPY is just completely going nuts... meanwhile all the small caps and crypto are either dead in the water or dropping. Btc has barely moved in 2 days.. wtf to do?

rvalu

Tell her the truth. Tell her you took a highly risk reward play that turned into mud. Don’t let her be unaware. You should have told her to put money into SPY, or VTI and leave a percentage in CDs.

jwz9904

QQQ and SPY getting towards ATH. I am being mocked as the crypto dude in my class.

Kidatsfresh

Coinbase stock up over 40% in the last month. SPY about to reach all time highs. Hopefully BTC is up next

Glum-Wealth-6171

Jeez.. ok ok I get it... BTC and SPY calls from now on.. doesn't seem like either market gives a shit about anything else.

panthera_N

NVDA stock is at all time high, SPY near ATH, same as BTC. TSLA sucks but don't underestimate Elon fanatics

Paragon_Voice

Reason I got into Bitcoin in 2021 was because I forward projected the cost of college tuition for my kids out to when they would be graduating high school. There was no way that my wife and I would afford supporting them without massive student loans on our combined salaries. Now, my wife doesn't have to work if she doesn't want to, because we can live comfortably on my salary. What I would've put into my 401k, I ut into BTC, and it has grown magnitudes better than if it were pegged to the $SPY.

Glittering_Pick_9738

what are you talking about? SPY in last month +2,5%. Nasdaq 100 + 3,34%. Bitcoin -2,5%. Yes, bitcoin is better than other crypto but this is because other coins are complete garbage. Bitcoin has hard time outperforming anything else (like stocks or gold).

Alfador8

SPY in the last 6 months: +1.38% BTC in the last 6 months: +3.47%

BitcoinBaller420

Great response to the war news for bitcoin. In the crypto world, where trading was actually open, it went down the least and was fastest to recover. Again. Overall outperformed SPY, QQQ, and the Mag 7. Again. Who still doubts bitcoin's utility as a store of value?

foxroadblue

SPY and QQQ were green too? Literally why would you expect BTC not to be green either. Maybe Post when BTC holds 100K when SPY goes to 550 lol

throwawayainteasy

Current SPY chart ~20 minutes after open is basically a vertical line up. The market hasn't behaved rationally in a while. Fake nothings we know won't actually stick (like the liberation day tariffs) cause huge drops, bur real, tangible issues like war between Iran/Israel and the potential closure of the straight keep the market flat or send it up.

Based_Thanos

SPY $700+ / BTC $180k+ 🐂🤑🤑

Matskalsen

This is the bottom signal 😂 Reversal tomorrow after SPY tanks

No-Advantage845

No but shutting down the straight of Hormuz would lead to skyrocketing oil prices and massively destabilising global economies. Anyone who hasn’t figured out that btc is still essentially pegged to the price action of SPY simply has not being paying attention.. like at all

_BannedAcctSpeedrun_

And then struck the next day? So glad I bought SPY puts at $597 for Monday. What a fucking impulsive idiot this guy is.

colorblind-and

I feel like I've noticed that Bitcoin tends to drop initially on bad news before rallying back stronger than say the SPY would. I wouldn't be surprised if we are back in the 105-108 range by Tuesday assuming there isn't any other surprises or escalations outside of what's expected.

BigDemeanor43

Ikr. It's like the meme of SPY being under $500/share and people not buying and then wishing they bought when it's back at $600. As long as you don't need the money in the next month then just buy and ride it out. Even if BTC goes to $70k again, it'll pop right back to $150k+ before you can even blink and you'll be kicking yourself in the ass for not buying any. 

Ok_Rent_2937

Yes, have both bitcoin and SPY

markphillips401

MSTR. Coinbase. Carpenter Technology Corp. Van Eck Gold Mining ETF. Ishares Gold Trust. Aberdeen Standard Precious Metals Basket ETF. Yes. I'm at holder at times of SPY500 based ETFs, mainly the tech weighted ETF.

Stinky_Pot_Pie

USA tech has been ripping it, mag7 etc. there are tons of tech focused etfs if you want just that though. Ark has some fun etfs as well imo. Gotta shop around and see what you think is good, no one can recommend it for you, if you don't want to research but want exposure then SPY is hard to beat. For me I'm long on nvda msft googl ibit. Thinking on going into XYZ and others that might play big roles in future finance.

MisterPink

Ugh we might be hitting a capitulation phase. Doesn't help that SPY is possibly stalling out at near all time highs.

CPA_Illinois

With 200K, I would just sell CSP’s and LEAPS and just keep churning those 1-3 weeks (while you don’t have a job right now). This way, you can collect a premium for just putting up the capital and even if you get assigned, just short term swing to get out and sell CC against the shares. I would do it on the SPY or QQQ since those are already diversified for you and give you tax benefits at year end. Wish you well with the divorce, life goes on. ❤️👍🙏

sorthawk

Map out monthly living expenses and how long you think it’ll take you to get a job. Say it’s 6 months and you’ll spend 3000 per month. Set 20,000 aside for short term living expenses. Invest 60,000 in something less volatile like SPY that you can sell and liquidate in under a week if it takes longer than 6 months. Invest the rest (120,000) in Bitcoin for long term saving and try to not touch it at all. If Bitcoin rises exponentially, sell only the 20,000 off the top to book some gains and hold till it drops 15-20% below the price you sold at. Repeat to increase savings.

Tergtels

Since 2014: SPY: +218% Pelosi: +746%

Standard_Event_3838

Gold has averaged an annual rate of return of 4.8%….that falls behind inflation! SPY over the same span has averaged an all in rate of return of 10-12%….more than double $100k of gold purchased in 1985 would be worth $1,070,000 today. $100k of SPY purchased in 1985 would be worth $8,292,000 today.

blueleaf_in_the_wind

🍻 You're not alone, homie. But it's beating gold and the SPY, so let it ride, I say! HODL

SchwiftySqaunch

There are very sexy, but SPY/microsoft/chip stocks have been good to me. Any of the two big to fail companies like Walmart Coca-Cola and others are pretty dependable if you're thinking long-term 5 to 10 years

Preme2

If Bitcoin trades like the SPY or QQQ, do you think the 4 year cycle is over if the economy/market holds well into 2026?

VariatCA

Crypto still has options for high-risk high-reward, namely thousands of other altcoins and memecoins. Of course, like lottery tickets, many of them are called high-risk for a reason... they're much more likely to simply lose money with. BTC is at the point where it trends more like the SPY or QQQ index fund, which considering its market cap and institutional adoption, makes sense. It's still more volatile than the S&P or Nasdaq, but that also includes its upwards volatility. It beats the S&P on nearly every metric in growth, but also has more potential for drawback in bear markets.

mustachechap

lol, that’s pretty funny. In theory she understands that lump sum is the way to go, and that the SPY is the way to go, but when it came down to actually handling larger sums of money she got cold feet. Oh well, just happy to be able to own some BTC. I’m hoping to do well this bull run (which I anticipate will peak in the next couple of months). Hoping to surprise her with whatever gains I get. Good luck to us both :)

EarningsPal

Some Bitcoiners already know they will die with the goal to pass on the BTC. Because they know for a fact they will regret selling. So at some point that old shit. The mess on chain they made in the past, will just sit there. It’s too much work to deal with. But they just move on and restack as possible because it’s for 10 years from now. They have no choice. To them it’s a guaranteed gain of future buying power faster than holding the SPY. They believe it’s currency wars > total productivity US companies SP500. And of course they believe BTC wins the currency war. It’s mind share that matters. Ever more people who will just aim to borrow against it and stack. If they want something, they will buy it with a defi loan somewhere. Because they can’t stomach selling but they realize they will die. So a smidge risked in defi won’t matter in their lifetime even if it was lost to a protocol code defect or dev theft. So as time passes. BTC will gain mind share even if it’s not the fastest in the crypto world or particular companies. Let’s call the winner at 33 trillion m2.

mustachechap

Lol my wife is also pretty risk averse. We’ve only been married a few years, so this was something I recently discovered. She makes more money and recently received a pretty big chunk of cash and prefers to keep it in a high interest MMA. We compromised on DCA’ing into the SPY over two years, but I was ready to lump sum it all two years ago. Anyway, thankfully our finances aren’t completely “together” just yet, so I’ve been aggressively buying FBTC lately, knowing that her portion is invested more cautiously.

DaBurgerBoi

Tbh either grab sol on the low, or just dont go crypto rn. We are anywhere to mid/end of cycle, probably mid but still. Your best profit opportunities are gone and you would be incuring alot of risk all inning rn. bitcoin is up 5x already this cycle already, Solana is up over 14x. Go for stocks and funds like SPY or S&P. save up for next bear market. You could also park it in crypto but you risk this being the peak and having your money tied up till next bull market. I am pretty bullish still but you never know.

diarioechohumo

Easy! I'm sharing my full Bitcoin income strategy using IBIT, designed to work through market cycles, generate cash flow, and minimize taxes over the long term. The strategy is built on the 500-day halving theory, covered call income, margin management, defensive hedging during bear markets, and the principle of never selling the core position. Here's the deep breakdown: I started with \$300,000 in capital: * \$60,000 in a Roth IRA, fully invested in IBIT * \$10,000 in a Roth 401k, invested in SPY * \$230,000 in a taxable brokerage account, fully in IBIT I also borrowed \$165,000 using margin to increase my IBIT exposure. That brought my total IBIT position to \$455,000, at an average cost basis of about \$57/share. Each week, I sell covered calls on my IBIT holdings, targeting around 0.10 delta. Historically, this type of strategy yields around 15% annually. On \$455,000, that generates approximately \$68,250 per year in premiums. Here's how that breaks down: * About \$9,000 in premiums come from the Roth IRA and are completely tax-free * The remaining \~\$59,250 come from the taxable account and the margin-funded shares Margin costs me 5.25% annually on the \$165,000 borrowed, which is about \$8,662 per year in interest. I pay this interest using a portion of the premiums collected from the weekly call sales. After interest, my net premium income is approximately \$59,600 per year. Of that, \~\$50,600 is taxable and \~\$9,000 is tax-free. Importantly, I apply the after-tax, after-interest portion of the premiums—what I call "net net income"—to gradually reduce the margin balance itself. Over time, this means my debt is shrinking while the asset value of IBIT potentially grows. Even before a cycle peak, I’m reducing risk in the background without selling any shares. In addition, from my full-time job earning \$56,000/year, I contribute approximately \$600/month to my investment accounts. This ensures I meet the annual Roth IRA contribution limit while slowly boosting my long-term tax-free holdings. I contribute 6% of my salary to my Roth 401k, and my employer matches 4% into the same Roth 401k. Because of my combined salary and taxable option premium income, I land in the 24% to 32% federal tax bracket, plus California’s 9.3% to 11.3% income tax bracket. On the \~\$50,600 in taxable premiums, I expect to pay around \$22,000 to \$25,000 annually in taxes. But here's where the real strategy kicks in: My core principle is to never sell IBIT. Instead of realizing capital gains, I generate weekly income from covered calls while allowing the ETF to appreciate. This avoids triggering taxable events related to selling. The only time I'd realize a gain is if I get early assigned on a call and my shares are called away. If that happens, I’ll check the holding period. If I've held the shares for more than one year, I qualify for long-term capital gains; if not, I try to avoid assignment by rolling the option out and up. If Bitcoin crashes before the expected ATH window, I have a contingency plan. I can sell a deep in-the-money LEAP call at a much lower strike than planned—perhaps even \$25 or \$30—depending on the price at that time. This allows me to raise enough capital from the LEAP premium to pay off the margin and eliminate interest payments. I don’t panic sell IBIT. Instead, I use the premium income and the LEAP structure to manage downside risk while keeping my core holdings intact. When the market reaches its expected peak (based on the 500-day post-halving theory, which puts the next top around September 2025), I plan to sell a deep-in-the-money (DITM) LEAP call, such as a Jan 2027 expiration with a strike around \$30 or \$40. If IBIT reaches \~\$100/share by then, a DITM LEAP can yield a very large premium, potentially \$50+ per share. Selling this LEAP gives me a large upfront cash inflow without actually selling my shares. I use that LEAP premium to fully pay off the \$165,000 margin balance. That eliminates interest costs and removes margin call risk entirely. Most importantly, because a LEAP sale is an open position, I don’t pay taxes on that premium until one of three things happens: the LEAP is assigned, expired, or closed. Until then, it's unrealized. This is key: I remove debt at the market top, neutralize risk, and defer taxes. I can then continue selling weekly calls on any uncovered portion of my IBIT, generating more income even after locking in the top through the LEAP. During the bear market phase (typically about 12-18 months post-ATH), I accumulate cash from call income. I do NOT DCA blindly. Instead, I hold and wait. When we hit deep bear market lows (expected late 2026 or early 2027), I plan to buy more IBIT or rotate into leveraged ETFs like BITX, or long-term LEAP calls on IBIT or MSTR. This aggressive reinvestment during fear phases is how I compound over multiple cycles. The strategy I follow during the bear market is almost identical to what I do in the bull phase, but inverted. I shift from selling calls on IBIT to doing the same with inverse instruments. I apply the same covered call strategy to positions in inverse ETFs like SBIT or BITI, or use shares of inverse MicroStrategy proxies like SMST or MSTZ. I sell weekly calls against these bearish instruments while they appreciate in a declining market. This provides income during downtrends and gives me even more cash to deploy when the market bottoms out. The account structure is also intentional: * Roth IRA: tax-free growth + tax-free weekly income from calls * Roth 401k: tax-free SPY growth * Taxable: income and appreciation with margin flexibility By combining this structure with cycle-based timing, I avoid taxable sales, maximize cash flow, defer realized gains through LEAPs, and only reinvest at the deepest value points. This isn’t financial advice, but it is my real strategy: full-time job, low lifestyle cost, Bitcoin ETF compounding, option income, responsible use of margin, applying premium income to reduce debt, contingency planning for early crashes, bear market hedging, and cycle-based patience. I’m not trying to time days or weeks. I’m trying to own time itself.

diarioechohumo

Easy! I'm sharing my full Bitcoin income strategy using IBIT, designed to work through market cycles, generate cash flow, and minimize taxes over the long term. The strategy is built on the 500-day halving theory, covered call income, margin management, and the principle of never selling the core position. Here's the deep breakdown: I started with $300,000 in capital: * $60,000 in a Roth IRA, fully invested in IBIT * $10,000 in a Roth 401k, invested in SPY * $230,000 in a taxable brokerage account, fully in IBIT I also borrowed \$165,000 using margin to increase my IBIT exposure. That brought my total IBIT position to \$455,000, at an average cost basis of about \$57/share. Each week, I sell covered calls on my IBIT holdings, targeting around 0.10 delta. Historically, this type of strategy yields around 15% annually. On \$455,000, that generates approximately \$68,250 per year in premiums. Here's how that breaks down: * About \$9,000 in premiums come from the Roth IRA and are completely tax-free * The remaining \~\$59,250 come from the taxable account and the margin-funded shares Margin costs me 5.25% annually on the \$165,000 borrowed, which is about \$8,662 per year in interest. I pay this interest using a portion of the premiums collected from the weekly call sales. After paying interest, my net premium income is approximately \$59,600 per year. Of that, \~\$50,600 is taxable and \~\$9,000 is tax-free. I also work a full-time job earning \$56,000/year. I contribute 6% of my salary to my Roth 401k, and my employer matches 4% into the same Roth 401k. Because of my combined salary and taxable option premium income, I land in the 24% to 32% federal tax bracket, plus California’s 9.3% to 11.3% income tax bracket. On the \~\$50,600 in taxable premiums, I expect to pay around \$22,000 to \$25,000 annually in taxes. But here's where the real strategy kicks in: My core principle is to never sell IBIT. Instead of realizing capital gains, I generate weekly income from covered calls while allowing the ETF to appreciate. This avoids triggering taxable events related to selling. The only time I'd realize a gain is if I get early assigned on a call and my shares are called away. If that happens, I’ll check the holding period. If I've held the shares for more than one year, I qualify for long-term capital gains; if not, I try to avoid assignment by rolling the option out and up. Now, when the market reaches its expected peak (based on the 500-day post-halving theory, which puts the next top around September 2025), I plan to sell a deep-in-the-money (DITM) LEAP call, such as a Jan 2027 expiration with a strike around \$30 or \$40. If IBIT reaches \~\$100/share by then, a DITM LEAP can yield a very large premium, potentially \$50+ per share. Selling this LEAP gives me a large upfront cash inflow without actually selling my shares. I use that LEAP premium to fully pay off the \$165,000 margin balance. That eliminates interest costs and removes margin call risk entirely. Most importantly, because a LEAP sale is an open position, I don’t pay taxes on that premium until one of three things happens: the LEAP is assigned, expired, or closed. Until then, it's unrealized. This is key: I remove debt at the market top, neutralize risk, and defer taxes. I can then continue selling weekly calls on any uncovered portion of my IBIT, generating more income even after locking in the top through the LEAP. During the bear market phase (typically about 12-18 months post-ATH), I accumulate cash from call income. I do NOT DCA blindly. Instead, I hold and wait. When we hit deep bear market lows (expected late 2026 or early 2027), I plan to buy more IBIT or rotate into leveraged ETFs like BITX, or long-term LEAP calls on IBIT or MSTR. This aggressive reinvestment during fear phases is how I compound over multiple cycles. I also don’t sit idle during down markets. I’ll consider inverse BTC ETFs like SBIT to profit from the downside, or use puts or inverse ETFs on MicroStrategy like MSTZ or SMST. I hedge actively and build war chests during bear phases. The account structure is also intentional: * Roth IRA: tax-free growth + tax-free weekly income from calls * Roth 401k: tax-free SPY growth * Taxable: income and appreciation with margin flexibility By combining this structure with cycle-based timing, I avoid taxable sales, maximize cash flow, defer realized gains through LEAPs, and only reinvest at the deepest value points. This isn’t financial advice, but it is my real strategy: full-time job, low lifestyle cost, Bitcoin ETF compounding, option income, responsible use of margin, and cycle-based patience. I’m not trying to time days or weeks. I’m trying to own time itself.

Ambitious-Foot6100

If you can stomach the volatility. Bitcoin has a history of falling by 75% and then bouncing back. It also depends on your overall portfolio. If 50k is all you got I would split it between stocks. Hys and bitcoin. 50% VOO or SPY, 25% hysa and 25% bitcoin.

Local-Mall-7203

tbf it did cause a scare and made people take money out of tech stocks. Not a huge deal for say SPY (though still a decent deal) but is more important for baskets like QQQ

catterj

I still have stuff like a car but 90% of my investments are in BTC. I have a pension at my job that I can access with a penalty if I quit, and so about 6% is taken up by that. There are other odds and ends I pretty much can’t put in btc. I sold a single family dwelling my wife and I had as a rental. That paid off debt allowing me to buy more btc per month. I own some MSTR now, but that was a silly move and I will put that into the btc ETF on Monday. Diversification is not necessary for me. Diversification is for when you don’t know anything about what you’re investing in, and/or you are afraid of the risk. I know about Bitcoin, but if you don’t know about it or any company in the S&P 500, then just buy SPY. And start learning about Bitcoin. In my view, risk is the chance of permanent loss of capital, NOT volatility. I don’t care about volatility. Go up, go down, go sideways - buy, buy, buy the bitcoin. I believe my Bitcoin holdings will not experience a permanent loss of capital because of what I have learned. Too much to put into this already too long reply.

Full_Illustrator1525

Hypothetically you could use one third to buy a piece of investment property and hire a tax professional to explain the concept of bonus depreciation, put one third in QQQ, and the rest split across SPY, a good high yield bond fund or private credit fund, a maybe what’s left just have some fun or buy gold. Obviously, not investment advice and you should always consult a professional.

BITCOIN_FLIGHT_CLUB

This math is wild. If bitcoin only doubled over 10 years, the CAGR would be ~7.2%. That’s wild for BTC and would make it a bad investment vs the SPY for example. BTC on the conservative side returns twice that, which would make the return 379k after 10 years on a 100k initial. I’ll carry your interest and fees forward, so that’s: 379k- 100k - 70k = 209 K vs 279k / 2 = 139.5K. So 209k - 139.5k = 69.5 K just for doing business with them? Just take the plunge yourself.

VariatCA

Got nothing to do with "hunting liquidity" or "following the cycle" or BTC in general at all, the markets are on fire with in-house political fighting between Elon & Trump today, the S&P/Nasdaq have been trying to sell-off multiple times, and Crypto algorithms trend alongside those markets. If SPY/Nasdaq dumps, BTC/Eth/Everything else tends to immediately follow. Could be worse, at least we're just loosely mirroring the bigger markets. Tesla's looking to close down -20% today over this shitstorm lol.

urbangoose

I'm pretty neutral on this At one hand, I don't want too much regulation overhead and I do believe the better projects will survive in the end. I know Ethereum has been shat on the past 4 years by the community, but it's 'surviving'. It's done better than 99% of other coins since the 2021 peak. It's just Bitcoin has far surpassed any other coin these 4 past years. And on the other hand, if people want to gamble and lose money, they will do it (and let them do it) - crypto or not. Current trend tells me that it's more than crypto. The likes of DraftKing and Polymarket becoming enormous is because retail traders are willing to play the game. And, even if you take away the meme coins, DraftKing, and Polymarket, etc., there's still TSLA, GME, AMC, and even SPY 0DTE options. Yea, pump fun theatrics is crazy. But coins come and go. Some reach the moon before they go, some don't. I was looking back at top 10 coins of 2016 the other day. Dash, Maid, Xem, Steem.. were all considered the 'best crypto projects' that year. I doubt anyone prior to Covid even heard of those coins.. No, they weren't meme coins but the bad apples, it's all the same. They come and go.

Guysmily425

agree - wish some of these guys focused half their saving enthusiasm into SPY for diversity

urbangoose

💯 ARKK has to be one the most pathetic excuse of an ETF in the last 2 decades. The only ETF that somehow have gone down in the past 5 years all the while SPY, NQ, and Bitcoin have continuously made higher highs.

Abundance144

I've seen days where the SPY is down and Bitcoin is up, so I dont know. I hope it doesn't tank too hard! I want to retire.

DefsNotAVirgin

that is wntirely possible, but given that bitcoin crashes when SPY does too, its more likely to me that bitcoin becomes like any other asset in the big boys portfolio and will suffer the same consequences

vqkyg53f3k72

I literally would liquidate my 2 SPY ETF shares

pcm2a

Open up a stock account at Fidelity or similar. Deposit your mother's money there. Put half of it in a Bitcoin ETF like IBIT or ARKB and the other half in the S&P500, like VOO or SPY. You won't have to worry about risking it all, you won't lose it on bad coins, and you won't have your account compromised and everything stolen.

KryptoSC

Exactly this for me. In my case I only had 2 choices, leave my IRA portfolio in SPY or convert it to IBIT. There was no other option that didn't involve a 45% penalty for liquidating and buying actual Bitcoins.

Known-Respect9935

Diversification is good if you’ll buy negatively correlated assets to reduce volatility, but since Bitcoin, Gold, and SPY are positively correlated most of the time (they go up together and down together) you should only hold the highest performer out of these assets, it is pointless to own all of them at the same time

OnlyBTC2035

I totally agree with you and that’s why i want to keep the BTC allocation around 35%, have my house and the rest in SP500 indexes funds like VOO-SPY.

holdmysugar

Yes way less risky than any individual stock. I learned this the hard way when AT&T shat on its shareholders and I lost tens of thousands of dollars. Not necessarily less risky than SPY though. The thing I love about the S&P 500 ETF is that if a company decides to go to shit, they drop out before they go bankrupt and a better company takes their place. This to me, is the safest place to be. It won't return what bitcoin is about to do in the next 10 years, but eventually Bitcoin will stabilize more and start giving returns more comparable to the S&P.

holdmysugar

The only good way to do this honestly is if you can get a low interest SBA loan, you need to have a business to do it, and you need to be able to fulfill all of their requirements which normally are some reporting items and insurance requirements. If you are in some kind of disaster area you will get generous SBA offers. I have done this twice. One was a 30 yr loan at like 3%. I met all the requirements had receipts to show where the money was spent, but my business does well so I was able to save the amount of the loan in an investment account. I ended up buying a rental property the first time. The second time I got a smaller 15 yr loan for 4%. I did all the requirements for SBA, technically I have all receipts to show how the money was spent in case I ever get audited. I also have the loan amount as the initial deposit in an investment account that holds 50% BITB, 25% SPY, and 25% XLK. I also had a year before I even started paying it back, so as you can imagine it has already grown some. Loan 1, my Tennant is paying the note. Loan 2, I will pay for with business profits and keep the investment account growing. SBA seems to have no problem with what I do since I have assets, receipts, documentation to back up all claims, and I pay my notes on time.

alpha247365

Check out its 1 year 5 year compounded performance relative to SPY QQQ GLD and your favorite ETF in your portfolio.

Sapere_aude75

I'm a big Bitcoin supporter, but this is stupid. We should be paying down our debt not purchasing assets. This is no different than buying gold or SPY. This is not the purpose of government

outerdead

more chatgpt, no idea if its right, but it sounds bad. **He’s assuming Bitcoin behaves like QQQ or SPY**, which it doesn’t.

Fun-Sundae4060

False. You can hold LETFs long term. There is an efficient frontier for volatility and gains. The sweet spot for QQQ is 2.1x and SPY is about 3x. For a swing trade, you win massively with multiple green day’s in a row, even with decay. How do people keep commenting about LETFs when I know about that already

futureformerjd

I sound like a guy who thinks it's foolish to put all my assets into one basket. Wouldn't matter if it were Bitcoin, Treasury bonds, gold, or SPY.

IntrepidFarmer5666

People will see that coordinated drop across the entire crypto market and still claim that there is no manipulation going on in equity markets  They do this same exact thing with SPY 30 min before close because robinhood automatically closes option contracts that expire this is literally stop loss hunting to force liquidity so they can buy cheaper while profiting by forcing the sell off and exiting at the top except with options it’s so they can buy back the options they sold when the price drops dramatically

Ethmemes

Yes I agree that investing in SPY is the good choice. If OP is being egged on by this forum of 1M$ prices, he could have tried that same luck in picking individual stocks and definitely made more than the 2x that BTC has had in 4 years.

MusicalBonsai

Not sure where you checked your data but I looked at 5 year price action and SPY 97% while BRBA is up 186%

New-Ad-9629

I have been tracking Bitcoin vs SPY and QQQ. There is a clear diversion and decoupling. Bitcoin is now being treated as a risk-off asset, not a 'risk on' asset.

BitcoinBaller420

What a perfect setup. Bitcoin is down because correlation traders are seeing the big SPY / QQQ moves (Trump 50% tariff threats) and expecting bitcoin to follow. They don't realize they are the only sellers, the correlations are broken, and bitcoin will likely rebound in their face. You can see the same effect on Wed around 1pm... big tradfi rip down on macro uncertainty, bitcoin down levered on bots, but tradfi assets continue to sink the rest of the day while bitcoin rallies into the close and sets all time highs that night. I expect the same thing today, I'll be buying. The models are broken, take advantage of these fire sales.

motivated_user21

It’s starting to look like they won’t matter anymore. DCA’ing from any point would be profitable at this moment if you bought before yesterday. I think Saylor will be right in that it just turns into basically a 2x SPY

BitcoinBaller420

Imagine panic selling 106 because SPY is down and bitcoin is a "levered risk asset" only to watch it recover in a matter of *hours*. Your models are broken. Market makers short overnight looking at the bitcoin price action: sweaty\_guy.meme

R3dFiveStandingBye

SPY just puked, Bitcoin just reacting we good

ItsPickles

Probably in about 8 years. Once bitcoin millionaires aren’t just those who bought in 2013 and are more mainstream. It will be more common akin to holding AMZN, GOOG, META etc. rather than replacing SPY or USD

urbangoose

Usually I just laugh at stuff like this.. thought I'd actually write something I've seen the Twitter posts and YT videos about "Oh there's a 2-3 month lag between M2 and BTC". No, there isn't. M2 has been going up. SPY has been going up. BTC has been going up. Everything, on a monthly time frame is highly correlated. This is how it looks if you span it out longer than the 2024-2025 chart people have been posting on Twitter and YT. [https://charts.bgeometrics.com/m2\_global.html](https://charts.bgeometrics.com/m2_global.html) Are you going to just ignore the 2018 peak? How about the 2021 peak that BTC came first? I'm not saying BTC isn't going to go up in a higher time frame. But, this isn't a tradeable information. To say, BTC is only up from here (or down May then up June+) is doing a disservice and non-sense. That's too low time-frame of a prediction based on a high time-frame information.

Cautious_You7796

Yeah I had huge gains in 2020-2021 and lost it all. I wish I would've taken some gains, bought SPY, maybe bought something nice for myself, and then started accumulating again. I've learnt my lesson.

PresentAdvertising29

1. Part of why gold is a relatively poor hedge is that it itself is inflationary. Roughly 2% gets added to the supply every year, that's about 5000 TONS yearly. The official inflation rate of the USD over the past 20 years is around 2.3% yearly, so its not hard to see why it doesn't perform THAT well. And yet, gold was selling around $450/oz in 2005, while SPY was about $120. So, this non-productive metal has still handily outperformed the S&P. Yes, the belief is that "Bitcoin’s value proposition that it's a highly undervalued form of digital gold that will eventually reach its intrinsic value and then grow more slowly, like gold does? " Both because Bitcoin is still quite speculative compared to gold, and because of its many superior qualities (deflationary, portable, verifiable, secure). How do you determine what the intrinsic value is? We just can't, only the market can compute that, over many years. All good questions BTW, ignore anyone saying otherwise.

AllUrUpsAreBelong2Us

Over a long enough period it just goes up. So does SPY, because the dips become irrelevant on a bigger timescale.

AdmirableUse2453

The solution is to make it so you can easly invest in stock in bitcoin not only in fiat, like having 1 BTC in stock or ETF like SPY and earn interest back in BTC.

Dorkasteri

I thought more confident market sentiment would benefit risk assets, but apperently I know nothing. Right now all eyes are on the american stocks. Seems like sell everything to buy SPY.

qwertydcf

SPY is up 20 points alrdy, so Bitcoin will follow, but im also always wrong so ye its up to you

foxroadblue

Already back to 104K. Pretty annoying it rallies less than SPY

Sundance37

Meh, if we are all being fair, bitcoin people seem to want to only talk about bitcoin. And there is already a place for that. If every single investing subreddit were all talking about bitcoin, all of the time, life would be far less interesting. Although it would be great for bitcoin. But just let them talk about their SPY holdings and we can talk about bitcoin.

cryptoNcoffee

Here’s the reality. It costs millions, if not tens of millions, to get all of the regulatory licenses, authority fees, employee infra, etc., to get a legit RWA platform. So far I’ve seen a a few well funded ones like BackedFi. They don’t have a token just RWA tokens on chain like SPY etc. pretty cool. Personally, I’m not using any RWA anything until I see a few years of a protocols success with billions TVL

Kesonac

Lol. Someone Just bought 10mil Puts for SPY, prob a Trump Insider. Yall are so delusional, No run will Happen while Trump is Here