SPY

TexasBoyz-713

Didn’t SPY just make ATH like a week ago

Novel-Yak1927

I try to stay away from the last 3 months of the year just bc people take profits. SPY is currently up %13.5 for the year an QQQ is up %20, seems like profit taking is certainly due before years end so hedge fund managers can round out their yearly return numbers.

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Post is by: Patriot_tech and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/Squeeze_em/comments/1x2hiwp/veeas_short_interest_fell_96_before_its_47_friday/ The most important number of the week showed up Friday afternoon. FINRA's Sep 30 short interest, published Oct 9, put VEEA at **50,744** shares short. On Sep 15 it was **1,216,996**. We spent the week quoting the old figure, roughly 77% to 80% of the float. By the time VEEA closed up 47% on Friday, most of the shorts we kept describing were already gone. The market barely helped. SPY rose about 1.2% for the week and IWM fell about 0.9%, so the moves below were about the stocks. **How fresh this is:** Closes and volume are Nasdaq's daily history (Oct 2 to Oct 9). Short interest is the Sep 30 settlement via Nasdaq. Borrow is Curved Trading's IBKR feed as of Saturday morning, which reflects Friday. Filings are from EDGAR, checked Saturday morning. --- **What ran** * **$VEEA** finished at **$5.70**, up 71% from $3.33 a week earlier. Monday did most of it (+71.8% on 66.9M shares). Then came three red days, then Friday's run to **$7.09** on about 83M shares after Thursday evening's news that Veea is back in compliance with Nasdaq's listing rules. That's more than 50 times the 1.58M float. Borrow ended at **844.7%** with 15K shares to lend. * **$APUS** went from $4.59 to $7.13 on Tuesday and hit **$9.84** Wednesday. It closed Friday at $5.02, about 49% under that high. Short interest was only 10,346 shares at Sep 15 (we don't have its Sep 30 figure yet). * **$BMGL** gained 14% to $3.75 in the same week it priced 6M units at **$1.33**. **What faded** * **$MEDS** fell 20% to $2.96. Thursday's 14M-share pop (+18%) was mostly gone by Friday's close. Friday it filed an amended S-1 to register up to **34,462,057** resale shares. The filing counts **4,515,862** shares outstanding. * **$IPDN** hit $6.78 on Tuesday's 70.6M-share day and closed Friday at $3.53, about 48% lower. * **$ONDS** slid 7% to $6.73. The Oct 9 $7.50 calls we tracked all week expired out of the money. * **$TNON** lost 7.8% and **$BTCT** 12.2%, quietly. **What short interest did, Sep 15 to Sep 30** VEEA fell 96%, BTCT 95%, BMGL 93%, TNON 89%, IPDN 46% and ONDS 4%. MEDS went the other way, up 22% to 525,081 shares. BIAF also rose, from 71,167 to 115,467. **What we got right** We said MEDS looked like shorts betting against the balance sheet, not a crowd waiting to get squeezed. The S-1/A is that balance sheet showing up. We flagged TNON, BTCT and BMGL because each had stock waiting behind the short interest, and BMGL priced at $1.33 while the stock traded above $3. We called ONDS a disagreement, not a trap. **What we got wrong** Two things. First, we leaned on a three-week-old short count. VEEA's borrow stayed brutal, which is why our standing rule kept it on the list, but "80% of float short" was mostly history by Sep 30. We had the right stock and the wrong fuel. Second, we dropped **$BIAF** after Tuesday. On Thursday it ran as much as 52% to **$9.38** on a Japan patent notice, traded 35.3M shares, and the company priced a roughly $4M offering at **$6.122** the same day. It closed Friday at **$4.725**. A spike followed by an offering is exactly the risk we write about, and we weren't watching it. A fee is not a squeeze. This week, an old short count wasn't one either. When the official count is two weeks old, what do you trust more: the borrow fee, or the number of shares available to lend? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Ammused-Muffin-6942

Can consider doing the wheel method for IBIT. All premiums are just reinvested into actually BTC. I did the wheel method against SPY and reinvested into BTC. Now I just hold SPY and just sell covered calls.

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Post is by: chainglance_cm and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1x0udgi/why_hype_is_surging_and_what_could_crash_the/ If you've been on crypto twitter at all lately, you've probably seen the hype around HYPE (yes, I did that on purpose). And since it started pumping, everyone's doing the usual thing, zero research on what it is or why it's going up, and just shilling the fuck outta it or getting shilled.  If you've been watching from the sidelines with some FOMO but want to understand what's actually driving this before you make a move, I did some research and here's why HYPE is suddenly so big (feel free to add or correct anything).  **What Hyperliquid is** Hyperliquid is a perp DEX, and it's the one that finally made on-chain perps feel as smooth as trading on Binance. Instead of building on top of an existing chain, the team built their own L1 designed purely for trading, with a fully on-chain order book. That's what lets it match CEX speed and fees while you still keep your own keys and skip KYC entirely. That combo is why volume migrated over so aggressively, and today it handles a huge share of all on-chain derivatives activity. It makes money the way any exchange does, through fees on every trade. **What HYPE is** HYPE is Hyperliquid's native token. You can stake it to help secure the chain, use it to vote on protocol changes, and holding it gets you lower trading fees. The real reason people care, though, is what the exchange does with its revenue. **How the buybacks work** Hyperliquid uses its trading fees to buy their own token, HYPE, off the open market and then burns it, which means those tokens are gone for good. It's basically what Apple does with its stock as well. Buy back shares, fewer left in circulation, each one owns a bigger slice of profits.  So more trading means more fees, more fees mean more HYPE bought, and the circulating supply keeps shrinking. There's a buyer in the market every single day that never sells. And since in HYPE’s case, the bought tokens get burned, there are fewer HYPE left over time. If demand stays the same but there are fewer tokens to go around, the price goes up.  In one recent 24-hour window, Hyperliquid bought and burned 112,580 HYPE, worth about $10.15 million. Total removed so far is roughly 49.25 million HYPE, around $4.45 billion worth. **The second, bigger buyback engine** This is the main catalyst behind the recent run. Every leveraged position on Hyperliquid needs collateral, and most traders use USDC for that. Add that up across the whole platform and Hyperliquid is sitting on billions in USDC at any given time, all of it earning yield. For a while that yield wasn't doing anything for HYPE holders. Then in August, Hyperliquid switched on a system called AQAv2, which sends 90% of the yield from roughly $5 billion in USDC reserves straight into automatic HYPE buybacks and burns. It went live on August 26, with the first payout scheduled for October. So now HYPE has two buyers working at the same time, one funded by trading fees and the other by yield on deposits. The more the platform gets used, the harder both of them buy. **What else added fuel** While AQAv2 is the biggest catalyst behind the recent surge, a few other events added even more momentum. Hyperliquid launched tokenized NVDA, QQQ and SPY that trade 24/7, pulling in people who'd never used a perp DEX. US regulators also gave tokenized stocks a lot more legitimacy this year. The SEC and CFTC put out guidance in January and March, and in September the SEC announced a five-year exemption for platforms trading tokenized securities. None of it approves Hyperliquid directly, but it took the whole category out of the gray zone. On the TradFi side, Bitwise and Grayscale launched spot HYPE ETFs (huge credibility booster), so every dollar going into them buys real HYPE. And Bloomberg just listed Hyperliquid's perps on its Terminal, putting it in front of basically every fund manager (more credibility). All of this means more volume, more fees and more USDC sitting as collateral, which all ends up as more HYPE bought and burned. Open interest just hit a record $18 billion. **What could go wrong** Things look really promising right now, but there are a few risks that could stall the run or kill it entirely. Hyperliquid Labs is selling 3.75 million HYPE (about $340 million) OTC to a single unnamed institution. The whole bull case is built on supply shrinking, and this adds more than a month's worth of burned tokens back into circulation in one go. It won't hit the order book directly, but OTC buyers often get a discount and can sell for a quick profit once they're able to.  On top of that, the team selling a big bag right as the price nears ATH doesn't exactly scream confidence. And plenty more supply is still locked, so this won't be the last time. All USDC on Hyperliquid comes in through a bridge, and bridges are among the most hacked contracts in crypto. A hack would hit user funds and the reserves funding the new buybacks. The validator set is small and closely tied to the team. In March 2025, they delisted the JELLY token and settled positions at a price they picked to stop a manipulation attempt. It protected the platform, but showed a few people can override the market. The same SEC guidance that legitimized tokenized stocks also says they're securities, and Hyperliquid offers them offshore without SEC registration. Stricter enforcement could turn that growth driver into a problem. And it all depends on activity. If volume dries up, both buyback engines slow down. With all that said, what you do with this info is up to you. And if I missed something or got anything wrong, drop it in the comments. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

OutlawLazerRoboGeek

Bulls can win, Bears can win, Pigs just get slaughtered.  If you've got "quit my job and travel the world for a year" kinda money today, there is no guarantee whatsoever that if you sit on your stack that it'll grow to "quit my job for life" kinda money in 5-10 years.  It might just sit, and bleed off value against the SPY like it has for the last year. Or it might 10x before the end of the decade. Who knows? Now is a great time to take some profits and diversify. And yeah, treat yo self a little. 

Upper-Media3769

Stacking subprime bonds into AAA rated bonds in 2007 was also dangerous and look where SPY is now. But I agree and personally I moved to FTSE All World but I wanted to mention SPY as it exists as a pretty liquid tokenized ETF as well.

Beautiful_Level_3259

First let me say I’m a BTC bull. But BTC has never existed during a SPY crash. Trust me if the SPY ends up crashing in the next year or so and we go into some sort of depression, BTC is coming with it and likely sub 50k.

Sacredwisp

Tops: 69k / 21k = \~3.28x 126k/69k = \~1.83x Next cycle, diminishing returns, 1.6x? 202k, generously. The cycle after, 1.4x? 283k Bottoms: 16k/3k = \~5.3x 58k/16k = \~3.6x Next cycle, diminishing returns: 2.5x? 148k The one after, 1.8x? 266k. Basically the same as the top. To note that I am being much more aggressive with the bottom multiplier going down than the top multiplier going down. The math isn't mathing. If you believe bitcoin will succeed, this model doesn't work. It would barely outpace the SPY500. You can't believe bitcoin will succeed and diminishing returns from the tops. It just doesn't work. Pick one.

Beautiful_Level_3259

The issue is the next big SPY crash won’t be a Covid V type crash. It’ll likely be a multi year depression. BTC will have to navigate that which will be interesting.

Darth_Liberty

Well I've been calling bullshit on the four year cycle since I first heard it, and right now I'm continuing to call bullshit on sub $60k future BTC prices. Look, black swans - as you alluded to - can occur. But in that case it will be a Covid-style flash crash with a V-bounce, not a sustained price level. The fundamentals of BTC are just too strong to allow for sub-$60k prices. The floor has been well established as per the exceedingly solid base price trendline one can see on a BTC Power Law chart. In a world in which SPY (and numerous others) could well crash, toppling entire markets, hard assets like BTC will initially be sold off to prop up etherral fiat-based assets, but will then rapidly be reaquired by those rushing into hard assets precisely because fiat markets are cracking at the seams. BTC has been running close to the base levels for a long time now. Weak hands are largely gone and funds have CONTINUALLY been moving into the hands of longer and longer term hodlers. I stand firmly by my declaration of no further BTC prices in the $40ks and $50ks.

Alfador8

Night and day is a fair comparison. They're very different assets. Bitcoin is a single, notoriously volatile asset, whereas SPY is meant to be a relatively nonvolatile basket is exposure to many large companies in a variety of industries. That being said, they share the characteristic of being a hedge against monetary inflation/debasement. The debasement narrative has been picking up steam for the last 3 months, and during that time BTC is up 40% and SPY is up 4%

Feralz2

SPY made a new ATH, and BTC made a new low the last 3 months lol literally night and day

CharacterStrategy598

The gains are indeed comparable to the regular stock market. Based on four year cycles Bitcoin is likely only going to double. SPY almost doubled in the last 5 years with less downside.

Corey_Blake

honestly the data kinda agrees with you. small caps are lagging too, IWM vs SPY is down almost 10% over the last 90 days, so risk appetite just isnt broad right now. i havent tested rates against the index directly so i wont pretend i know how much of it is rates, but nothing ive looked at says alts are about to rip

Plus_Seesaw2023

That is exactly what happened after the Covid crash and what is happening right now as well. Everyone’s euphoric, everyone thinks they’re geniuses… they’ve made +400 per cent on MRNA, +250 per cent on AMD, +400 per cent on INTC… and I’m not even talking about SPCX, ARM, PLTR, which have gone up ten or fifteen times over, and so on. For the moment, I’m sitting patiently on the sidelines with plenty of cash, ready to buy back into the indices when they fall by around -15 per cent… it’s only a matter of time… maybe in 12 months, maybe in 5 years… that’s fine, I’ve got time now… [https://finviz.com/stock?t=SPY&ty=c&ta=0&p=m](https://finviz.com/stock?t=SPY&ty=c&ta=0&p=m) When the climbs are parabolic, sometimes the descents, ...

Beautiful_Level_3259

We’ll see. BTC has never existed through a SPY crash which is definitely possible this year/early next year. Funny how BTC can deviate above and cause everyone to believe the low is in but can’t also eventually deviate below and cause a lower low… The people that were claiming cycles don’t exist now are all talking about how we’ve broken the cycle because it now fits their narrative. MMs best option from here is a complete wipeout sometime in the next 6 months to flush out the extreme greed I’m seeing everywhere. 99.9999% of people now say up only. That’s a perfect recipe for lower.

mrmarketinguy

Nope. 1.8M if it was put on SPY with similar parameters

randomuser051

You could apply this math to SPY or QQQ and come out with a very similar result. Useless

KateR_H0l1day

I bought MSTR/MSTY/BTCI when it was in the $59K range, but just relatively small amounts, also bought ASST @$14.5. My total is looking so much better today, but who knows how long it'll last?? My ARKB is up 40% today, however my SPY is up 250% today, everything is relative!

kdizzle619

You were literally gambling and you think you were investing. Had you put that money into ETFs like SPY or VOO which is what you should be doing if you want to be conservative.

Veshino99

Also, it was priced in, check last weeks trading, for example SPY went like 7 red days out of 8

carlos5577

SPY green bitcoin green

SoCallMeDeaconBlues1

You bought one of the most volatile instruments in the entire market, and a day or two later got scared because number go down? Crypto probably isn't for you. Maybe put your money somewhere safer, like a HYSA (High Yield Savings Account. Or an index etf like SPY or VOO or QQQ.

New_Manner_1826

It is about getting assets with rising value and instead rent until you can buy a house in a place right for you for cash. Anton Kriel talks about REIT, thinking outside of the sheep mentality. Look at the trends, 200 day moving averages. If you bought BTC 10 years ago you would be up 10 000 %, SPY 10 years ago you would be up 260 %, AAPL 1000 %, XBI 150 %, HG1! 180 %..

Ghola_Mentat

I think you need to seriously ask yourself if you should be trading options. If you still feel the need, do it with stocks that are far more predictable. Maybe start by selling some covered calls on SPY?

Street_Smart_Phone

Please. Whatever you do, don’t invest in SPY

AcademicallyAcademic

Btc recovering pretty strongly after that Warsh speech, regardless of what SPY is doing

mtndewaddict

Like BTC it's value is not based on fiat currency, only communicated. 1 SPY is 1 SPY the same way 1 BTC is 1 BTC.

Pure_Ad_6530

I have index funds ( SOXX, QQQ, SPY) and GLD and 20% in T-Bills

dataCollector42069

My SPY returns have also been good since 2018 when I started contributing every two weeks

NadlesKVs

That's literally not correct at all lmao. SPY/ QQQ are literally a combination of all of the top traded companies. BTC is not made up of the top Altcoins. Altcoins follow BTC because majority of Altcoins are traded against BTC (or ETH, SOL, etc) which a large portion are traded with using BTC.

iiGoodVibesii

Lack of words... It's the SPY (and nasdaq) of crypto. Get it?

CharacterStrategy598

Even this recent pump while impressive for a week puts Bitcoin on parity with the SPY. Both SPY and BTC were at 630 and 63000 respectively 6 months ago and are at 770 and 77000 now.

CharacterStrategy598

I find it weird that Bitcoin went to exactly 77000. The SPY is also currently at 770. And both of them had a low at 630 although Bitcoin went lower but it stayed in 63000 for a long time.

Beautiful_Level_3259

We would simply need a rate hike with a crashing SPY. Both very possible to close the year and happen in midterm years. Nothing crazy.

babypho

I wonder if there's subreddit for VOO or SPY

burusai

SPY hasn’t been anywhere near 729 in August.

drew2f

IMO Shorts were squeezed when someone in Trump's circle leaked his notes for yesterday afternoons presser. There is also a chance this has something to do with Bessents comments about buying long bonds, but I think it was partly that, partly a leak and partly a squeeze. Nasdaq and SPY down and BTC up so much seems odd to me.

z0dz0d

He has a solid plan there, because i did the opposite a week ago (shifted a bunch from SPY to BTC) and we all know how that turns out.

INDUBITABLY_AI

SPY went from 729 -> 780 in 2 days last week. Its leverage unwinding and shorts getting burned that causes the explosive moves. We will melt up Covid style until 2027 when inflation spikes again. They are injecting tons of money into the market to try save JPY and UST. Right now Bitcoin is reacting accordingly

General-Macaroon2

Yeah.. the past 2 days have been red. If the reason if everything is spiking because USD is going down, why hasn’t SPY gone up during the same time?

General-Macaroon2

Why isn’t SPY going up too? Genuine question cuz I have no idea lol. Seems like risk assets or just crypto?

RichardUkinsuch

Some got lucky on call options specifically in the chop and AI stocks, then get greedy and way overleverage. Wouldnt be surprised if SPY and QQQ take a massive dump as these guys get liquidated and they are margin called on their whole portfolio.

thrwaway1614211

I would be happy for him if he made his money in a legal way, but he did not. Most of his ventures failed hard and he would have been better off just putting it in SPY. He only really got rich after becoming president due to his blatant corruption.

Antonio_928s4

I already have .06 BTC. I’m not buying more dips. I’m waiting for Bitcoin to reach $100K to sell it all. I’m switching to QQQ, SPY & VTI instead.

hideurtowers

They never steal my SPY

CharacterStrategy598

At this point SPY is a better investment to get back to break even. Just recently SPY went from 630 to 770. Meanwhile Bitcoin has been stuck at 63k.

Petrichord

Seems like we’ve found a bottom and things will move up a bit soon. Hard to say how much. SPY at all time highs too

cdeussen

I don’t think it will ever reach 6 figures again. I can make 50% gains monthly, sometimes daily or weekly with SPY futures, so I think investors will move steadily away from BTC. You used to make good money with little risk. Now, there is a real risk of losing money and returns occur over a much longer period. AI is a better investment. Soon another sector will replace AI. BTC had its day and it was great, but it’s over. Kind of like people still holding GameStop thinking it will rocket again. It won’t.

cdeussen

It wasn’t hard during that period. It never really went down for any significant period if you look back. My initial purchases were for offshore gambling. Then the investment potential became clear. I bought at significant forward movement and sold at long pauses. Movement from $100 to $3000 was slow so it’s not like these were single massive trades. It was easy money. I use the exact same momentum strategy with SPY futures today and do very well. You invest with a model - not emotions and gut feel.

Big-Finding2976

You could have got 13x if you bought ZEC a year ago. SPY has done 22% in that time. QQQ 28%.

unknowngloomth

You have a point VOO and SPY have just hit a new ATHs as crypto bleeds

Just_Bluebird_5268

SPY ripping to new highs while cryptocoin stays flat? I mean it's not great is it

unknowngloomth

He said that buying SPY would make more money than crypto which is false. I made more money in crypto last cycle than holding stocks. If you think you can't make money off of crypto why are you here then? Go to the stock subreddit? 🥴

MisterMephistopheIes

BTC 1 YR charts: Down 44% SP500 1 YR charts: Up 21% You're  not as smart as you think you are because you can quote the most well known fact in all of investing lmao. Literally just buying and holding SPY would have made you way more money than buying crypto. And if you have the slightest amount of emotional control, conviction, and ability to do your own research, it's really not that hard to beat SP500. I'm up over 100% in the last year, just making logical choices and rotations. 

MisterMephistopheIes

There is way more money to be made in stocks, companies that actually produce value and profit for shareholders. Majority of people have realized that crypto is just GambleTokens and KalshiKoins, there is no intrinsic value, you are literally just gambling on macro factors like fed rates, Iran war, etc and you can do the same with SPY or any tech stock and make way more money and have predictable factors and outcomes you can research for. 

Complex_Account_4268

Own whatever you want to own. Can’t teach a guy who doesn’t know what SPY is lol

Complex_Account_4268

Bitcoin isn’t SPY

UpbeatFix7299

You could probably turn it into $25 in 10 years if you bought SPY. You aren't turning $12 into shit dude. Be realistic

PMmeuroneweirdtrick

All this juat to underperform SPY

bytemute

BTC plunging with SPY step by step.

retro_grave

I'd recommend buying SPY, but based on your record that might top out as well.

BSP9000

I bought in 2022, sold last year, and bought again this year. As a trader, the volatility and semi-predictable cycles are a plus. I have no idea if the long term returns will be better than SPY so I don’t HODL. If I had to pick one, I’d buy stocks instead.

randomuser051

Do u know what Berkshire Hathaway is? It’s an investment company with thousands of diversified investments within it. It’s very different investing 100% of your portfolio into bitcoin vs SPY. One is diversified, the other isn’t. And I’m not sure what your first sentence has to do with this.

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Post is by: Stunning-Ask3032 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1uvykd8/can_i_get_real_institutional_liquidity_and_level/ If you have tried trading SPY on standard crypto platforms during big news drops (like CPI or rate decisions), you already know the pain. As soon as volatility hits, the order books completely empty out. Spreads widen, and you end up eating massive slippage just trying to get in or out of a position. I used to use a few of the bigger platforms, but getting filled way off my target price finally broke me. I recently started looking into the actual +/- 1\\% order book depth to figure out why this keeps happening. Turns out, most exchanges rely on thin, isolated matching engines. I compared the numbers and found out Bitget's** **rToken is drawing directly from NASDAQ/NYSE order books via Reality Protocol, making its SPY depth: 54x deeper than Ondo 4,465x deeper than Binance 17,155x deeper than Gate I switched over my size trades to rToken, and the execution is night and day fills are basically instant and spot on because you are hitting real stock market liquidity instead of a tiny pool of crypto users. Plus, if you have VIP, the free Level 2 data actually lets you see where the real bids are sitting. What’s the worst slippage you’ve ever taken during a high impact news drop? I've lost way too much to bad fills and I’m trying to learn how others manage this risk. Do you look at order book depth before trading, or just click market and hope for the best? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

KateR_H0l1day

There’ll be a lot of people writing about the second half of 2026 in the future, all about how they wish they’d have bought more during that period. And many more writing about how they wish they hadn’t sold when they did. And, yes this is definitely a prediction for what we’ll see! The smart money is looking at the markets, and considering when to rotate out of the S&P500/Nasdaq etc; back into Crypto, primarily BTC. I sold some SPY in the last month and bought BTC. I’m planning to do the same during the rest of this year, but only when I feel the prices are right both ways, and it’ll be relatively small amounts.

Specific_Essay6041

But why take the risk with BTC? That boat has sailed, even if it gets to 150 or even 200 and one buys in at 60k that isn’t any different than SPY in the last 5-6 years and SPY is much safer in historical returns compared to who knows what may happen to BTC

kream_downstairs

Go look back at SPY and look every 4 years when there is a new president. You will see a huge dip every time. Same concept and people still haven’t caught on.

Prior_Material4115

Historically it’s the best performing asset which is objectively true haha, and that statement was more of a testament to how great bitcoin has been since its inception. My average is 61 for this cycle so far (this is a multi year plan), it was about 22 last cycle so I can assure you I made more on Btc than I would’ve in SPY although I own that too

wentwj

lol if your average is 61 why are you calling it the best performing asset? you’re just above break even. Just buying SPY would have probably been a better investment.

MrT-1000

While true, it also is at the same price it was back in 2023, anyone who bought and held since then is either at a loss now from the last peak or is at a net neutral. At the end of the day I understand your frustration, I too have been burned by cardano though with a much smaller investment. Ultimately it's up to you to decide on selling, taking the losses, and reinvesting the capital in something a little more consistent in the year over year gains, or if you want to stick it out with the crypto clans on "based on X metric we're GUARANTEED another bull run at Y months and then we're to the moon!" I wouldn't fault you for that. My advice for the future, if you're up in crypto and selling and taking the profit could legitimately benefit your life, just do it. "Holding" doesn't mean jack squat, I learned that after my first two "bull runs", and after taking profits by the 3rd run, and completely cashing out at 4 and reinvesting in SPY/vanguard and paying off all my student loans while leaving some residuals around to play with as house money, I feel so much less stressed on the investment front. Tl;Dr: Crypto isn't for the faint of heart, take the profits when you feel comfortable and enjoy your life

parcelwing

And meanwhile, stackers have been beaten over the last 1 year, 3 year and 5 year timeframes by those who bought SPY, QQQ, GLD, SLV and most other asset classes. In the long term, productive asset classes always beat non-productive and bitcoin is now a mature non-productive asset. That said, it's a fantastic vehicle for trading the cycles, but you have to buy low and sell high. DCA stackers will continue to lose to passive index investors from here most likely over the long term, but those who sell euphoria and buy despair can do better

xaviemb

Strategy has bought 175,000 Bitcoin YTD... I think you're missing the forest for the trees here by focusing on a symbolic sell of less than 3% of that total simply to appease the S&P500 committee to allow the trojan horse into capital markets. If Strategy is successful in getting into the SPY by doing this, the inflows of capital that otherwise wouldn't have reached Bitcoin... is hard to put into perspective. The fixed income market (which mostly ignores Bitcoin, or avoids it like a plague) would suddenly start to flow towards Bitcoin by way of this proxy build by Strategy. That market is $270 Trillion...

ottwebdev

Now do 10 year comparison. Ill save people the time SPY about 250% Bitcoin about 15,000%+

CharacterStrategy598

You'll be fine if you invest in SPY. That thing nearly doubled in last 5 years which is similar to what Bitcoin might do if it reclaims 124k as per the four year cycle.

casualAutistDad

If that’s truly your thesis would you just sell the bags and but SPY for 3 years and then buy back in? I’m holding bags but only because I have no better thesis and am terrible at timing.

undonedomm

My gut says on October there will be a 5% correction on SPY, that will sent risk on asset bitcoin all the way down to 40k.

LifterNineFour

The panic is beautiful. The comparisons to QQQ and SPY are great. The bottom is coming in soon.

QuailCharacter544

After a few bear markets you just start to see it as an opportunity. The first time it was gut wrenching; now I just scoop some up at lower levels and forget it exists. It comes with the territory; if you want safety throw your money in SPY because this is par the course for volatile assets

Every_Application_26

SPY also gives out dividends. Total return in the past 5 years annualized is 15%: You know why SPY can give out dividends? Because you are owning companies that actually do useful things and generate a profit that can be shared with share holders. [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance/) While I do own BTC for my own reasons, hoping for it to moon is really perverse. It was never intended to be a tool to make early adopters rich. Now the biggest gamblers have made the biggest noise and have totally devalued the product into some dumb speculative asset.

PopLegion

You just answered the question, no this investment strategy clearly has basically returned exactly the same as just DCA'ing into SPY wouldve returned for this guy, while adding much higher risk and volatility. Maybe over the next 5 years it will pan out better, who knows?

CandidateNo1004

The problem isn't disbelief in BTC, it's that this guy and many people are trying to get all the BTC they can because of a single price target. It doesn't make sense to throw everything into BTC even if $1M is the long-term price target. Lets say BTC hits $1M... in 2046- well that's a CAGR of 15% from today... Excellent performance, beats the SPY500, but that puts BTC in the same category as other high performing assets, not it's own league. If the goal is wealth building, you might as well diversify because in a world where BTC averages 15% CAGR for 20 years and hits $1M per coin- then shit- AI must've also boomed, robotics probably also revolutionized logistics, energy sector boomed, etc. And well, if BTC does indeed become the largest store of value asset in human history- you'd still be happy even if you diversified.

JGdc12

"number go up then sell for fiat" bro that's just investing. that's how stocks work too, nobody buys SPY to frame the certificate, they want more fiat eventually as well. so you're not wrong, you've just correctly identified that most of crypto IS speculation, same as most of the stock market is speculation if you want the case beyond 'price go up', self-custody means no bank or government can freeze your funds without your keys, that alone matters more than people give it credit for. and at this point the banks themselves are telling you what's coming, it's not just crypto bros. CECA Bank just launched crypto custody through Bit2Me under MiCA. Standard Chartered acquired a custodian. Citi's building their own platform. US community banks are plugging into fintech rails to offer Bitcoin through apps people already use. every major bank wants a crypto desk because they know exactly where this is going JPMorgan, Fidelity, BlackRock, and Visa are all building around BTC/ETH specifically. that's adoption happening in real time whether people are watching or not we're still early. the people asking what's the point now are the same ones who'll be asking why nobody told them later

chuck_portis

Okay first off, there are different types of "laws" or regulations out there. All through time people have tested / broken them and the entire crypto industry is probably against the law / regulations of most countries if you really get into it. So to just blanket say "breaking the law" is absolutely wrong is sheepish and ridiculous. What if Uber never broke the law? We'd still have assholes with taxi medallions running the show. How about if you are a Chinese citizen? You want to buy Google because you believe in the company and think it is a good investment. Your bank doesn't let you buy it due to regulations. But you can easily buy USDT. Once you are onchain, you can swap USDT for a tokenized Google share and voila. You are now invested in Google. Imagine you already owned a Google share in your Chinese brokerage but they came to you one day and said, "Hey the rules changed you are not allowed to own US stocks". What could you do about it? Absolutely nothing. Meanwhile, if you just owned the tokenized versions, while your compatriots are having their shares force-sold by their brokerages, you're completely unaffected. Now, the biggest long term global impact I see from tokenization of equities is the interoperability between crypto and tradfi. Instead of swapping out to USDT and holding that as my baseline asset, I can use the SPY instead. That is, anytime I cash out from crypto I go into SPY. But I keep it onchain so that I can swap back the other way. This way I am always exposed to crypto/equities. That would be a much better long term strategy than going cash/crypto.

Last-Shelter-5880

Bitcoin is a high reward, high risk asset. It will go up and down more than the market. Bitcoin is up over 6% since 6/6, while SPY is only up 0.46%.

Ready_Stress_Go

Half BTC, quarter SCHD/SPY from a car you already replaced is a reasonable split, no notes, but imo skip the SpaceX, overprised fr

manharkatty

Bitcoin for growth and something like SCHD/SPY for diversification

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badbilliam

Everyone here will say no, but in reality if you can manage the payments with ease, monetizing debt is a great way to get ahead in life. I took out 200k in debt in March, it grew to 250k now just chilling in SPY + Micron, bought 1 btc at 60k gonna buy 2 more at 50k Interest payments are only $1,150 per month which is basically nothing to me, plus dollars now are worth more than dollars later (thanks to money printing).

ahhhaccountname

I just think the average person doesnt even know how to make an investment account and buy SPY. People using custom bots have some understanding. Assuming there are people that just want their money to make money, I am pretty certain it will get to a point that they just press a button on their bank account and it just does this shit for them.

Fit_Equal6932

Mostly macro plus idiosyncratic on sector specific news. When nothing is happening in crypto land it trades with a beta to SPY. You can line up the chart.

therealoptimoose

If you bought 0DTE SPY calls just before Trump cancelled the “planned strikes” and sold 10 minutes after, you outperformed Warren Buffet this millenia.

Fit_Equal6932

Lacking any crypto specific news it trades with a higher beta to SPY, look what happened today. You can line up the charts. So yeah it will go down harder.

JerseyGemsTC

Sure, but then you seem to be leaving a ton of opportunity cost on the table. If I held for the last 5 years I’d be underperforming SPY over the same period.

aimhigh7shootlow8

ETH is in Wave 4 macro / Wave 5 micro — the final flush before the macro Wave 5 setup. This fits your playbook perfectly: accumulation zone, not entry yet. Wait for the short-term bearish Wave 5 to complete ($1,545–$1,798 zone), confirm reversal structure, then size in for the macro Wave 5 launch. Your SPY Wave 2 correction trigger lines up directly with ETH bottoming in this zone. $1,384 is the deeper macro invalidation — below that, key price levels at $883 and $356 become relevant for eliminating bullish wave count scenarios entirely.

Kitchen_Net_GME

I’m just not sure. I still have vivid memories of October 2022. SPY was crashing. Bitcoin falling. Tons of people kept calling for further drops. Everyone had a chart suggesting further drops were incoming. People referenced historical trends and how it would play out again. This feels like that. I think we bobble in the range of 53-65K for awhile. And there has already been a lot of consolidation in this range in 2024.

G_Felix

Over the last six years, SPY has grown 160% (includes dividends). Bitcoin has grown by 500% over that same period. Watch that gap grow!

Lord_Gudda

It's a bear market. I've tried to look for correlation to other assets. Closest i've seen has been SPY but after the AI hype that one is dead too.

PrestondeTipp

If you're heavy in BTC you're down 25% in a month and 31% year to date. The risk free T-bill rate is 3.839%  SPY is up 8.45% Inflation alone will land somewhere between 2.7-3%