SPY

kdizzle619

You were literally gambling and you think you were investing. Had you put that money into ETFs like SPY or VOO which is what you should be doing if you want to be conservative.

Veshino99

Also, it was priced in, check last weeks trading, for example SPY went like 7 red days out of 8

carlos5577

SPY green bitcoin green

SoCallMeDeaconBlues1

You bought one of the most volatile instruments in the entire market, and a day or two later got scared because number go down? Crypto probably isn't for you. Maybe put your money somewhere safer, like a HYSA (High Yield Savings Account. Or an index etf like SPY or VOO or QQQ.

New_Manner_1826

It is about getting assets with rising value and instead rent until you can buy a house in a place right for you for cash. Anton Kriel talks about REIT, thinking outside of the sheep mentality. Look at the trends, 200 day moving averages. If you bought BTC 10 years ago you would be up 10 000 %, SPY 10 years ago you would be up 260 %, AAPL 1000 %, XBI 150 %, HG1! 180 %..

Ghola_Mentat

I think you need to seriously ask yourself if you should be trading options. If you still feel the need, do it with stocks that are far more predictable. Maybe start by selling some covered calls on SPY?

Street_Smart_Phone

Please. Whatever you do, don’t invest in SPY

AcademicallyAcademic

Btc recovering pretty strongly after that Warsh speech, regardless of what SPY is doing

mtndewaddict

Like BTC it's value is not based on fiat currency, only communicated. 1 SPY is 1 SPY the same way 1 BTC is 1 BTC.

Pure_Ad_6530

I have index funds ( SOXX, QQQ, SPY) and GLD and 20% in T-Bills

dataCollector42069

My SPY returns have also been good since 2018 when I started contributing every two weeks

NadlesKVs

That's literally not correct at all lmao. SPY/ QQQ are literally a combination of all of the top traded companies. BTC is not made up of the top Altcoins. Altcoins follow BTC because majority of Altcoins are traded against BTC (or ETH, SOL, etc) which a large portion are traded with using BTC.

iiGoodVibesii

Lack of words... It's the SPY (and nasdaq) of crypto. Get it?

CharacterStrategy598

Even this recent pump while impressive for a week puts Bitcoin on parity with the SPY. Both SPY and BTC were at 630 and 63000 respectively 6 months ago and are at 770 and 77000 now.

CharacterStrategy598

I find it weird that Bitcoin went to exactly 77000. The SPY is also currently at 770. And both of them had a low at 630 although Bitcoin went lower but it stayed in 63000 for a long time.

Beautiful_Level_3259

We would simply need a rate hike with a crashing SPY. Both very possible to close the year and happen in midterm years. Nothing crazy.

babypho

I wonder if there's subreddit for VOO or SPY

burusai

SPY hasn’t been anywhere near 729 in August.

drew2f

IMO Shorts were squeezed when someone in Trump's circle leaked his notes for yesterday afternoons presser. There is also a chance this has something to do with Bessents comments about buying long bonds, but I think it was partly that, partly a leak and partly a squeeze. Nasdaq and SPY down and BTC up so much seems odd to me.

z0dz0d

He has a solid plan there, because i did the opposite a week ago (shifted a bunch from SPY to BTC) and we all know how that turns out.

INDUBITABLY_AI

SPY went from 729 -> 780 in 2 days last week. Its leverage unwinding and shorts getting burned that causes the explosive moves. We will melt up Covid style until 2027 when inflation spikes again. They are injecting tons of money into the market to try save JPY and UST. Right now Bitcoin is reacting accordingly

General-Macaroon2

Yeah.. the past 2 days have been red. If the reason if everything is spiking because USD is going down, why hasn’t SPY gone up during the same time?

General-Macaroon2

Why isn’t SPY going up too? Genuine question cuz I have no idea lol. Seems like risk assets or just crypto?

RichardUkinsuch

Some got lucky on call options specifically in the chop and AI stocks, then get greedy and way overleverage. Wouldnt be surprised if SPY and QQQ take a massive dump as these guys get liquidated and they are margin called on their whole portfolio.

thrwaway1614211

I would be happy for him if he made his money in a legal way, but he did not. Most of his ventures failed hard and he would have been better off just putting it in SPY. He only really got rich after becoming president due to his blatant corruption.

Antonio_928s4

I already have .06 BTC. I’m not buying more dips. I’m waiting for Bitcoin to reach $100K to sell it all. I’m switching to QQQ, SPY & VTI instead.

hideurtowers

They never steal my SPY

CharacterStrategy598

At this point SPY is a better investment to get back to break even. Just recently SPY went from 630 to 770. Meanwhile Bitcoin has been stuck at 63k.

Petrichord

Seems like we’ve found a bottom and things will move up a bit soon. Hard to say how much. SPY at all time highs too

cdeussen

I don’t think it will ever reach 6 figures again. I can make 50% gains monthly, sometimes daily or weekly with SPY futures, so I think investors will move steadily away from BTC. You used to make good money with little risk. Now, there is a real risk of losing money and returns occur over a much longer period. AI is a better investment. Soon another sector will replace AI. BTC had its day and it was great, but it’s over. Kind of like people still holding GameStop thinking it will rocket again. It won’t.

cdeussen

It wasn’t hard during that period. It never really went down for any significant period if you look back. My initial purchases were for offshore gambling. Then the investment potential became clear. I bought at significant forward movement and sold at long pauses. Movement from $100 to $3000 was slow so it’s not like these were single massive trades. It was easy money. I use the exact same momentum strategy with SPY futures today and do very well. You invest with a model - not emotions and gut feel.

Big-Finding2976

You could have got 13x if you bought ZEC a year ago. SPY has done 22% in that time. QQQ 28%.

unknowngloomth

You have a point VOO and SPY have just hit a new ATHs as crypto bleeds

Just_Bluebird_5268

SPY ripping to new highs while cryptocoin stays flat? I mean it's not great is it

unknowngloomth

He said that buying SPY would make more money than crypto which is false. I made more money in crypto last cycle than holding stocks. If you think you can't make money off of crypto why are you here then? Go to the stock subreddit? 🥴

MisterMephistopheIes

BTC 1 YR charts: Down 44% SP500 1 YR charts: Up 21% You're  not as smart as you think you are because you can quote the most well known fact in all of investing lmao. Literally just buying and holding SPY would have made you way more money than buying crypto. And if you have the slightest amount of emotional control, conviction, and ability to do your own research, it's really not that hard to beat SP500. I'm up over 100% in the last year, just making logical choices and rotations. 

MisterMephistopheIes

There is way more money to be made in stocks, companies that actually produce value and profit for shareholders. Majority of people have realized that crypto is just GambleTokens and KalshiKoins, there is no intrinsic value, you are literally just gambling on macro factors like fed rates, Iran war, etc and you can do the same with SPY or any tech stock and make way more money and have predictable factors and outcomes you can research for. 

Complex_Account_4268

Own whatever you want to own. Can’t teach a guy who doesn’t know what SPY is lol

Complex_Account_4268

Bitcoin isn’t SPY

UpbeatFix7299

You could probably turn it into $25 in 10 years if you bought SPY. You aren't turning $12 into shit dude. Be realistic

PMmeuroneweirdtrick

All this juat to underperform SPY

bytemute

BTC plunging with SPY step by step.

retro_grave

I'd recommend buying SPY, but based on your record that might top out as well.

BSP9000

I bought in 2022, sold last year, and bought again this year. As a trader, the volatility and semi-predictable cycles are a plus. I have no idea if the long term returns will be better than SPY so I don’t HODL. If I had to pick one, I’d buy stocks instead.

randomuser051

Do u know what Berkshire Hathaway is? It’s an investment company with thousands of diversified investments within it. It’s very different investing 100% of your portfolio into bitcoin vs SPY. One is diversified, the other isn’t. And I’m not sure what your first sentence has to do with this.

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Post is by: Stunning-Ask3032 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1uvykd8/can_i_get_real_institutional_liquidity_and_level/ If you have tried trading SPY on standard crypto platforms during big news drops (like CPI or rate decisions), you already know the pain. As soon as volatility hits, the order books completely empty out. Spreads widen, and you end up eating massive slippage just trying to get in or out of a position. I used to use a few of the bigger platforms, but getting filled way off my target price finally broke me. I recently started looking into the actual +/- 1\\% order book depth to figure out why this keeps happening. Turns out, most exchanges rely on thin, isolated matching engines. I compared the numbers and found out Bitget's** **rToken is drawing directly from NASDAQ/NYSE order books via Reality Protocol, making its SPY depth: 54x deeper than Ondo 4,465x deeper than Binance 17,155x deeper than Gate I switched over my size trades to rToken, and the execution is night and day fills are basically instant and spot on because you are hitting real stock market liquidity instead of a tiny pool of crypto users. Plus, if you have VIP, the free Level 2 data actually lets you see where the real bids are sitting. What’s the worst slippage you’ve ever taken during a high impact news drop? I've lost way too much to bad fills and I’m trying to learn how others manage this risk. Do you look at order book depth before trading, or just click market and hope for the best? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

KateR_H0l1day

There’ll be a lot of people writing about the second half of 2026 in the future, all about how they wish they’d have bought more during that period. And many more writing about how they wish they hadn’t sold when they did. And, yes this is definitely a prediction for what we’ll see! The smart money is looking at the markets, and considering when to rotate out of the S&P500/Nasdaq etc; back into Crypto, primarily BTC. I sold some SPY in the last month and bought BTC. I’m planning to do the same during the rest of this year, but only when I feel the prices are right both ways, and it’ll be relatively small amounts.

Specific_Essay6041

But why take the risk with BTC? That boat has sailed, even if it gets to 150 or even 200 and one buys in at 60k that isn’t any different than SPY in the last 5-6 years and SPY is much safer in historical returns compared to who knows what may happen to BTC

kream_downstairs

Go look back at SPY and look every 4 years when there is a new president. You will see a huge dip every time. Same concept and people still haven’t caught on.

Prior_Material4115

Historically it’s the best performing asset which is objectively true haha, and that statement was more of a testament to how great bitcoin has been since its inception. My average is 61 for this cycle so far (this is a multi year plan), it was about 22 last cycle so I can assure you I made more on Btc than I would’ve in SPY although I own that too

wentwj

lol if your average is 61 why are you calling it the best performing asset? you’re just above break even. Just buying SPY would have probably been a better investment.

MrT-1000

While true, it also is at the same price it was back in 2023, anyone who bought and held since then is either at a loss now from the last peak or is at a net neutral. At the end of the day I understand your frustration, I too have been burned by cardano though with a much smaller investment. Ultimately it's up to you to decide on selling, taking the losses, and reinvesting the capital in something a little more consistent in the year over year gains, or if you want to stick it out with the crypto clans on "based on X metric we're GUARANTEED another bull run at Y months and then we're to the moon!" I wouldn't fault you for that. My advice for the future, if you're up in crypto and selling and taking the profit could legitimately benefit your life, just do it. "Holding" doesn't mean jack squat, I learned that after my first two "bull runs", and after taking profits by the 3rd run, and completely cashing out at 4 and reinvesting in SPY/vanguard and paying off all my student loans while leaving some residuals around to play with as house money, I feel so much less stressed on the investment front. Tl;Dr: Crypto isn't for the faint of heart, take the profits when you feel comfortable and enjoy your life

parcelwing

And meanwhile, stackers have been beaten over the last 1 year, 3 year and 5 year timeframes by those who bought SPY, QQQ, GLD, SLV and most other asset classes. In the long term, productive asset classes always beat non-productive and bitcoin is now a mature non-productive asset. That said, it's a fantastic vehicle for trading the cycles, but you have to buy low and sell high. DCA stackers will continue to lose to passive index investors from here most likely over the long term, but those who sell euphoria and buy despair can do better

xaviemb

Strategy has bought 175,000 Bitcoin YTD... I think you're missing the forest for the trees here by focusing on a symbolic sell of less than 3% of that total simply to appease the S&P500 committee to allow the trojan horse into capital markets. If Strategy is successful in getting into the SPY by doing this, the inflows of capital that otherwise wouldn't have reached Bitcoin... is hard to put into perspective. The fixed income market (which mostly ignores Bitcoin, or avoids it like a plague) would suddenly start to flow towards Bitcoin by way of this proxy build by Strategy. That market is $270 Trillion...

ottwebdev

Now do 10 year comparison. Ill save people the time SPY about 250% Bitcoin about 15,000%+

CharacterStrategy598

You'll be fine if you invest in SPY. That thing nearly doubled in last 5 years which is similar to what Bitcoin might do if it reclaims 124k as per the four year cycle.

casualAutistDad

If that’s truly your thesis would you just sell the bags and but SPY for 3 years and then buy back in? I’m holding bags but only because I have no better thesis and am terrible at timing.

undonedomm

My gut says on October there will be a 5% correction on SPY, that will sent risk on asset bitcoin all the way down to 40k.

LifterNineFour

The panic is beautiful. The comparisons to QQQ and SPY are great. The bottom is coming in soon.

QuailCharacter544

After a few bear markets you just start to see it as an opportunity. The first time it was gut wrenching; now I just scoop some up at lower levels and forget it exists. It comes with the territory; if you want safety throw your money in SPY because this is par the course for volatile assets

Every_Application_26

SPY also gives out dividends. Total return in the past 5 years annualized is 15%: You know why SPY can give out dividends? Because you are owning companies that actually do useful things and generate a profit that can be shared with share holders. [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance/) While I do own BTC for my own reasons, hoping for it to moon is really perverse. It was never intended to be a tool to make early adopters rich. Now the biggest gamblers have made the biggest noise and have totally devalued the product into some dumb speculative asset.

PopLegion

You just answered the question, no this investment strategy clearly has basically returned exactly the same as just DCA'ing into SPY wouldve returned for this guy, while adding much higher risk and volatility. Maybe over the next 5 years it will pan out better, who knows?

CandidateNo1004

The problem isn't disbelief in BTC, it's that this guy and many people are trying to get all the BTC they can because of a single price target. It doesn't make sense to throw everything into BTC even if $1M is the long-term price target. Lets say BTC hits $1M... in 2046- well that's a CAGR of 15% from today... Excellent performance, beats the SPY500, but that puts BTC in the same category as other high performing assets, not it's own league. If the goal is wealth building, you might as well diversify because in a world where BTC averages 15% CAGR for 20 years and hits $1M per coin- then shit- AI must've also boomed, robotics probably also revolutionized logistics, energy sector boomed, etc. And well, if BTC does indeed become the largest store of value asset in human history- you'd still be happy even if you diversified.

JGdc12

"number go up then sell for fiat" bro that's just investing. that's how stocks work too, nobody buys SPY to frame the certificate, they want more fiat eventually as well. so you're not wrong, you've just correctly identified that most of crypto IS speculation, same as most of the stock market is speculation if you want the case beyond 'price go up', self-custody means no bank or government can freeze your funds without your keys, that alone matters more than people give it credit for. and at this point the banks themselves are telling you what's coming, it's not just crypto bros. CECA Bank just launched crypto custody through Bit2Me under MiCA. Standard Chartered acquired a custodian. Citi's building their own platform. US community banks are plugging into fintech rails to offer Bitcoin through apps people already use. every major bank wants a crypto desk because they know exactly where this is going JPMorgan, Fidelity, BlackRock, and Visa are all building around BTC/ETH specifically. that's adoption happening in real time whether people are watching or not we're still early. the people asking what's the point now are the same ones who'll be asking why nobody told them later

chuck_portis

Okay first off, there are different types of "laws" or regulations out there. All through time people have tested / broken them and the entire crypto industry is probably against the law / regulations of most countries if you really get into it. So to just blanket say "breaking the law" is absolutely wrong is sheepish and ridiculous. What if Uber never broke the law? We'd still have assholes with taxi medallions running the show. How about if you are a Chinese citizen? You want to buy Google because you believe in the company and think it is a good investment. Your bank doesn't let you buy it due to regulations. But you can easily buy USDT. Once you are onchain, you can swap USDT for a tokenized Google share and voila. You are now invested in Google. Imagine you already owned a Google share in your Chinese brokerage but they came to you one day and said, "Hey the rules changed you are not allowed to own US stocks". What could you do about it? Absolutely nothing. Meanwhile, if you just owned the tokenized versions, while your compatriots are having their shares force-sold by their brokerages, you're completely unaffected. Now, the biggest long term global impact I see from tokenization of equities is the interoperability between crypto and tradfi. Instead of swapping out to USDT and holding that as my baseline asset, I can use the SPY instead. That is, anytime I cash out from crypto I go into SPY. But I keep it onchain so that I can swap back the other way. This way I am always exposed to crypto/equities. That would be a much better long term strategy than going cash/crypto.

Last-Shelter-5880

Bitcoin is a high reward, high risk asset. It will go up and down more than the market. Bitcoin is up over 6% since 6/6, while SPY is only up 0.46%.

Ready_Stress_Go

Half BTC, quarter SCHD/SPY from a car you already replaced is a reasonable split, no notes, but imo skip the SpaceX, overprised fr

manharkatty

Bitcoin for growth and something like SCHD/SPY for diversification

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Post is by: DemetherDefi and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/DerivativeIncomeETFs/comments/1u70prf/are_you_guys_earning_yield_on_stocks/ Been wondering this lately: For stocks that don't really pay dividends (or pay very little), how are you guys generating yield from them? Especially those heavily mentioned ones like: * TSLA * CRCL * NVDA * MSTR * GOOGL * HOOD * SPY * QQQ Are you selling covered calls, lending shares, using margin, tokenized stocks, DeFi strategies, or just holding and focusing on price appreciation? I'm especially curious whether anyone here is earning meaningful yield on these positions without giving up too much upside. Do share what's actually working for you? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

badbilliam

Everyone here will say no, but in reality if you can manage the payments with ease, monetizing debt is a great way to get ahead in life. I took out 200k in debt in March, it grew to 250k now just chilling in SPY + Micron, bought 1 btc at 60k gonna buy 2 more at 50k Interest payments are only $1,150 per month which is basically nothing to me, plus dollars now are worth more than dollars later (thanks to money printing).

ahhhaccountname

I just think the average person doesnt even know how to make an investment account and buy SPY. People using custom bots have some understanding. Assuming there are people that just want their money to make money, I am pretty certain it will get to a point that they just press a button on their bank account and it just does this shit for them.

Fit_Equal6932

Mostly macro plus idiosyncratic on sector specific news. When nothing is happening in crypto land it trades with a beta to SPY. You can line up the chart.

therealoptimoose

If you bought 0DTE SPY calls just before Trump cancelled the “planned strikes” and sold 10 minutes after, you outperformed Warren Buffet this millenia.

Fit_Equal6932

Lacking any crypto specific news it trades with a higher beta to SPY, look what happened today. You can line up the charts. So yeah it will go down harder.

JerseyGemsTC

Sure, but then you seem to be leaving a ton of opportunity cost on the table. If I held for the last 5 years I’d be underperforming SPY over the same period.

aimhigh7shootlow8

ETH is in Wave 4 macro / Wave 5 micro — the final flush before the macro Wave 5 setup. This fits your playbook perfectly: accumulation zone, not entry yet. Wait for the short-term bearish Wave 5 to complete ($1,545–$1,798 zone), confirm reversal structure, then size in for the macro Wave 5 launch. Your SPY Wave 2 correction trigger lines up directly with ETH bottoming in this zone. $1,384 is the deeper macro invalidation — below that, key price levels at $883 and $356 become relevant for eliminating bullish wave count scenarios entirely.

Kitchen_Net_GME

I’m just not sure. I still have vivid memories of October 2022. SPY was crashing. Bitcoin falling. Tons of people kept calling for further drops. Everyone had a chart suggesting further drops were incoming. People referenced historical trends and how it would play out again. This feels like that. I think we bobble in the range of 53-65K for awhile. And there has already been a lot of consolidation in this range in 2024.

G_Felix

Over the last six years, SPY has grown 160% (includes dividends). Bitcoin has grown by 500% over that same period. Watch that gap grow!

Lord_Gudda

It's a bear market. I've tried to look for correlation to other assets. Closest i've seen has been SPY but after the AI hype that one is dead too.

PrestondeTipp

If you're heavy in BTC you're down 25% in a month and 31% year to date. The risk free T-bill rate is 3.839%  SPY is up 8.45% Inflation alone will land somewhere between 2.7-3%

No-Contribution1070

How was he right? Equities are all time highs. Bro went all cash at the end of 2024... SPY is up lile 30% since... What's an extra 30% of $350 billion? Thats how much money he has since lost out on. Probably more, i just used SPY as an example.

OwnConflict5118

I believe in bitcoin as money. Not store of value. But, I will say this is nonsense. You cannot even compare two index funds over the course of two years. I bet you would be unwilling to compare 15 years of history. SPY can easily lose 30% in a year. SPY lost 36% in 2008. And, a multi year losing streak at the begining of the century. -10.58% in 2000, -12.3% 2001, -22.14% 2002. If you invested in 2000 you will still have an average annualized return of 8.19% today. But, if you take those 3 years it is a trash investment.

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Post is by: vac2672 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1twn12g/attention_young_grasshoppers/ I really feel for all these obviously young wannabe superstar traders losing their shirts in these markets. Real facts here... you ain't gonna make a living day trading, esp. crypto (unless you happen to have been very lucky and bought years ago, but chances are you sold it.) I have been buying BTC since it was $300, unfortunately selling along the way as well. Anyway take this advice young bucks, because it is pure gold...if you have the discipline you will thank me in years to come, if you don't, and you continue to pretend using terms like 'support', 'breakout', 'test' when it comes to btc you will pay dearly... btc is worthless, just face it, you are here to trade and make money, not because you're waiting for the financial system to collapse... it ain't gonna so get on w your life. I have done technical analysis professionally on wall street for years using custom software built for portfolio analysis, so take my advice or don't, i really don't care... Here is how you get rich: If you're in you late teens, 20's, even early 30's not too late... simply put 85% of what you can save each month in stocks (i'll explain how), and 15% (10% btc, 5% your fav worthless alt coin). This is IN ADDITION to maxxing out your 401k and/or ira's. That is priority #1 **Of your 85% Stocks breakdown as: 40% QQQ, 20% SPY, 40% Top Tech (Faang or Mag 7, etc)** Now you assign your dollar amount to that... whether it is $100 a month or $1k and do your portfolio purchases. Now here's the rule: DON'T EVER SELL ANYTHING. I didn't sell through the dot com bust, i didn't sell through '08, and now I am rich by most standards. The freedom you will gain is beautiful.. stop trying to time btc because it has no timing, it is a trading vehicle, that's it, treat it that way... it ain't your lifeblood.. I still to this day don't PERSONALLY know a single person who has used btc to purchase anything. You use it to make money, stop being a fanboy. You can believe me, don't believe me, downvote me, whatever.. i'm giving you free advice, i've done it all, i was the wannabe daytrader, i built automated blackbox trading models, etc.. i've watched top PhD's try to beat the market...it all fails. The only thing I have seen work is the above. Anything else is timing and a little luck. Oh, and you're welcome *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Flexerrr

Funny how I got upvoted, yet any ETH holders in past 5 years have no profit and lost to SPY lol

Leather-Ad-1253

Wash sale wouldn't apply to BTC on exchange or peer to peer. Wash sale would apply to paper bitcoin such as an ETF product. Spot BTC from exchange is treated as a commodity and you can buy and sell and buy within the same day. No wash sale. Paper BTC in an ETF such as FBTC/MSBT/IBIT, treated as a security and subject to wash sale rules. Now...can you sell IBIT and buy FBTC much like some do with SPY/VOO? Maybe...

Original-Read-6475

Nothing to do with cope. If you believe that SPY at it's current ATH is a better investment like OP seems to imply, then by all means go invest. The smart people invested in SPY while BTC was at ATH and no one talked about SPY

Original-Read-6475

Typical bear market sentiment. Go chase the green candles then and put your money on SPY while it's at ATH and euphoria phase. I'm sure it will work out just as great as for those who bought into the gold euphoria in late January.

Zestyclose-Power-132

This is exactly what i think, but now litterally it feels like SPY is more of an actual storage for value rather than BTC. I am just sad?

pattywhaxk

1. Bitcoins promise is zero monetary inflation. That doesn’t mean it will maintain its value against any currency, equity or commodity in the short run. 2. Bitcoiners generally aren’t concerned with short term price action. They’re either in it for the tech, concepts and ideals that underpin the system or for the long term investment opportunity, usually a combination of both. I’m not saying you aren’t one, but I think it’s easy to get caught up in the dollar numbers and forget about everything else that is going on. 3. We are in the bear market. We were at ATH less than 9 months ago. This happens every 4 years, and we are exactly where we are supposed to be. A new ATH is made after the halving, and then around the 2 year mark BTC crabs around the previous cycle ATH, which is exactly where we are at. 3a. To further prove my point about the cycle, in every 2nd year post halving, SPY outperforms BTC. 2014, 2018 and 2022. I suspect that 2026 could be the same. In this cycle the timeline was pushed up due to macro factors like the ETF approvals, but the cycle has maintained its general structure.

Shot-Structure-1274

Well, if the stock markets start to enter a bear market after a super massive run up and BTC is already at 65k, then it's possible for a real massive decline from here as ALL risk-on investments are in a bear market. If SPY drops -35% from here, we could see BTC drop -70% from here and trade at 20-25k. Of course, stocks could drop even worse and then BTC could as well. Either way, stocks and BTC are headed lower because BTC drop first and then stocks.

Applecity82

I mean not all of us HOLD when hitting ath. I take profits when we start getting into new ath territory. Right now I’m buying again. When and if it goes back up, I’ll rinse and repeat. Even if I miss some profits and sell too soon, I figure it’s better than watching it go way back up and then all the way back down. I throw profits into SPY

Illustrious-Boss9356

Dude 10-15% is easily lambo land what are you on? The SPY averages like 11%.

whiskeyH0tel

Would you rather get 8% on SPY, slow and boring?

Lord_Gudda

Short time frame no, long time frame yes. I believe it will retrace to this years lows very fast. It is still a bear market and altcoins always perform poorly. Not to mention what will happen to crypto of SPY and the other stocks have a correction or the SpaceX IPO is just a huge dumpfest.

BainTrain55

While SPY will be pushing like 900 or some shit

baIIern

I actually did. Not SPY though, but a world ETF. Sold BTC a bit too early though

HopiumTrump

SCHD, SPY, QQQ, SPYI!! These are some great ETFs!! There will be a time to buy Bitcoin at end of this year!! 4 year cycle is kang!!

HopiumTrump

In 2021, A Centoshi (0.01 BTC) was $600+ while a share of SPY was $440. In 2025, A centoshi was $1100-1250 when SPY was $600. If you think Bitcoin underformored the Stock market, you need to ask yourself why you didn't sell when a Centoshi could have bought you 2 shares of the Spy. From top to top, Bitcoin did not underperform the stock market as a whole.

Lord_Gudda

Stocks don't give a shit what crypto does. But if SPY falls or any of the other AI stocks...BTC will fall and ALTs will collapse.

StrangePhotoSTL

Historically, Alt season comes when smart money is rotating out of btc. It's the mainstream name with first mover advantage as a brand. And 10x is massive. I claimed I have heard btc was dead every year since 06. You said I didn't. Then I posted a historical tracker supporting the opposite of a dead opportunity. You don't have alt season without btc, hence why I stated how many times I've heard it. If you have been in the space long enough, you would have understood that basic concept. It's the opposite of inconsistent, as it follows traditional markets regardless since the same people are in crypto and trads. Just look at it on a chart next to SPY. The personal insults also indicate I upset you somehow and you're speaking with emotions instead of logic.