SPY

RedditUser32804

I will do exactly that. And I am a big fan of Harry Browne and actually use the permanent portfolio in my trading. The only difference is that I am only long when the trend is up in SPY, TLT, and GLD when their trends are up instead of all the time. And I use LEAPS instead of shares. I have been successful with speculating with etfs, but never considered bitcoin until recently, so this really helps me a lot. Thank you for your replies.

foxroadblue

Read the OP. Holding through a 75% drawdown just to end up barely beating the SPY and trailing gold, not to mention any number of individual stocks. Why would this interest anyone? It used to be that even if you bought at the very top, if you held 4 years you could 3.5x your money last cycle or 20x the one before that. People already called the 2021 top disappointing, and this one is even more so.

UkraineCombat

Reason for crash??? I don't consider myself a great trader by any means , but SPY ATH 687.39 on October 29, 2025 is a good indicator ... Crypto is just NQ on steroids , it's big money cashing in and using 'let me but the dip" retail as exit liquidity . I m sure random shit kinda will pump , but the accumulation period has passed on many of them . Right now , any pump will be getting used as an exiting/taking profit ... I only held a few coins , but sold most of them . Some of them might be too early . I start to rotate once SPY hit 650 , every pump above that I would sell a portion. I m about 60% cash ... I never sell 100% . Ingot maybe 10% to go ... I usually time it ok, last time I went 50% cash was when everyone was waiting for Santa rally, than sold another 30% during one short pump in jan .... Market & Economy is in a complete disconnect right now . Imo, right now economy is crap /gov shut down/ tariffs will wipe out a lot of small businessea that rely on anything out of country . Normally, you anticipate strong earning from big retail names . But I think it will be a very tight Christmas for everyone. I watched money leaving the money for a good month now , the last time I have seen this trend was during the post covid crash . Back then the money leaving part lasted a few months, so my guess is that it will be trading sideways and maybe even see a few more good pumps . But when Christmas earnings will start hitting the tape - we will be going down hard in jan . Then again , it's only opinion of some ahole on reddit . You might go all in on some Pepe jizz shitcoin and riding in kambo in Jan 😉 Nobody really knows . I am going with my market experience since I started trading in 2005-06 ... Got wiped out in 07, but came back very strong after that fiasco . * https://preview.redd.it/pmvzpul1qjzf1.png?width=377&format=png&auto=webp&s=d87087a6f43104652a18e74aded5dac22a45347e

BankBonusOffer

Reason for crash??? I don't consider myself a great trader by any means , but SPY ATH 687.39 on October 29, 2025 is a good indicator ... Crypto is just NQ on steroids , it's big money cashing in and using 'let me but the dip" retail as exit liquidity . I m sure random shit kinda will pump , but the accumulation period has passed on many of them . Right now , any pump will be getting used as an exiting/taking profit ... I only held a few coins , but sold most of them . Some of them might be too early . I start to rotate once SPY hit 650 , every pump above that I would sell a portion. I m about 60% cash ... I never sell 100% . Ingot maybe 10% to go ... I usually time it ok, last time I went 50% cash was when everyone was waiting for Santa rally, than sold another 30% during one short pump in jan .... Market & Economy is in a complete disconnect right now . Imo, right now economy is crap /gov shut down/ tariffs will wipe out a lot of small businessea that rely on anything out of country . Normally, you anticipate strong earning from big retail names . But I think it will be a very tight Christmas for everyone. I watched money leaving the money for a good month now , the last time I have seen this trend was during the post covid crash . Back then the money leaving part lasted a few months, so my guess is that it will be trading sideways and maybe even see a few more good pumps . But when Christmas earnings will start hitting the tape - we will be going down hard in jan . Then again , it's only opinion of some ahole on reddit . You might go all in on some Pepe jizz shitcoin and riding in kambo in Jan 😉 Nobody really knows . I am going with my market experience since I started trading in 2005-06 ... Got wiped out in 07, but came back very strong after that fiasco . https://preview.redd.it/1f3mo61zjjzf1.png?width=377&format=png&auto=webp&s=0365ddbcc4e502e54f18999fad895754ce7ab64c

Major-Rabbit1252

I wouldn’t go all in on any one thing I’d spread it out a bit via DCA, especially into BTC. I’m starting to grow weary of alts, but they’re at a great price range right now if you have conviction and have DYOR I’d avoid any lump sums unless you’re putting it into an ETF like SPY, QQQ, VOO Before anything else though, I’d use it to pay off any high interest debt. Do you own a home? You could do some home repairs. Do you want a home? $20k isn’t a bad starting spot for a down payment World is your oyster! My only advice is not to lump sum into any crypto rn. DCA should be the move.

BushyOldGrower

Why do we assume bitcoin will always go up and never experience volatility, zoom out and you’ll see it’s not always an upward trajectory. Yes it can and will go down below is MA at times and vice versa, these are the only two things for certain we know bitcoin will do. Reading this sub 90% of posters should not be investing in Bitcoin or anything but SPY if there panties are going to get in a bunch every time it drops.

berry-7714

Lol, returns are compressing heavily, how is it going to 10x? They have been compressing every cycle and the 5 year chart will be below SPY gains in 3 more months, and of course below most stocks too, it is already behind several stocks in the 5 year today and its about to get a lot worst even if it stopa dropping.

meshreplacer

Terrible risk adjusted return. At least with SPY it is very liquid, can be held in SIPC/FDIC protected brokerage accounts, can sell options on SPY to hedge risk and generate cash.

Uberrings

Blame the crypto president and greedy exchanges with their cutthroat price swings to capitalize on panic selling waves. 19B of derivatives liquidated in 1 night and the brutal slow decline afterwards is enough to deter anyone and their mom, while stocks and gold are hitting record high. The math is simple. Why am I in this thing if it can drop 20% overnight, whereas for the same amount of money Joe doubled his earnings with gold, Jane tripled with NVDA and Brad just bought his Lambo with SPY and little volatility?

_CryptoAlpha_

SPY did peak 4 years ago tho

_CryptoAlpha_

You have a point with gold, but SPY had its last top 4 years ago too so it’s a valid comparison.

PE_Diablow

You’re literally talking about a 4 year cycle for bitcoin but comparing it to assets where the 4 year cycle doesn’t apply like SPY and gold. If that’s not called cherry picking data, idk what is

Simke11

This sub doesnt understand that timing the market is name of the game, instead they are playing it as if they are buying SPY

fromthepharcyde

Not sure if you noticed but the NASDAQ is down almost 2% and SPY lost over 1% today because the CEOs of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs commented on the chance of a pullback in stock evaluations over the next 1-2 years. This is fueling the narrative that the AI bubble will pop, which tanked tech/AI related stocks. Crypto more or less follows the same trends, so it crashed. Pretty obvious that if bad “news” like talking about an overvalued market seeing a pullback in a few years can tank the market, good news like the end of the government shutdown, another rate cut, and kicking off QE will bring it back up. This is the definition of “buy when others are fearful”.

Illustrious_Tear_682

I am truly happy you are getting wealthier. I am not saying today is the day to diversify. If you are already all in on BTC, you cannot buy more today. I already sold some SPY today and bought BTC. I guess we have different opinions about putting all of your eggs in one basket.

MrT_IDontFeelSoGood

You’re missing the point - Bitcoin goes up and down with risk assets bc it’s essentially a riskier version of QQQ. It doesn’t matter why QQQ or SPY or any other index of risk assets go up, Bitcoin tends to rise with them but more aggressively when times are good. Still, recent years show its risk-adjusted returns are worse than QQQ bc its drawdowns are so intense from all the leverage and speculation baked into it. And when markets feel shaky like this past month, Bitcoin is the first thing the people with money dump. The USD was up almost 10% in 2022. Energy sector was up over 50%. But those are less relevant bc those were temporary macro swings and most ppl can’t be expected to time tactical swings well.

Sea_Variety_1691

"Buy the dip" Suck my cck i'm moving back to SPY

ilikeplayingthisgame

so disappointed in BTC this year, could have just bought SPY this year, made more money and had significantly less stress. hopefully things improve soon before 5 year chart creeps up in march/april and that will be when people will really start doubting the space. we've already had bullish catalysts happen in the last month (like rate cuts) and it just dumps.

NinjaN-SWE

Not saying BTC is destined to fail but I want to point out a problem with your reasoning. You're putting up a risky investment against no investment. That is a poor way of thinking about this. Instead compare a lower risk investment with BTC. 20 years in the stockmarket (say the SPY index) has historically looked like a 5x return. Taking your $10k USD to $50k USD. So what you're risking by choosing BTC is not just the initial principal $10K, but the full alternative cost compared to the other options you have. Is it likely that BTC increases more than 5x in 20 years? I'm not qualified to say but I think that is certainly possible. I do see a question mark if BTC truly can reach $1M, i.e. 10x in 20 years, simply based on the market cap "problem" of it being such an enormous asset compared to others. I wouldn't chose BTC to get rich at this point. Rather I'd chose it as a long term hedge (because short term it follows the stock market up and down). In particular against the USD, which has a lot of challenges ahead and seems likely it will drop further in value compared to other currencies.

thenamelessone7

Well, even with btc the time to sell was a year ago and put it in SPY

ilikeplayingthisgame

if we go sideways for a few more months until march, the five year chart will below SPY

iTurbo6

I sold some this weekend and today. 106-111. With trading stocks and crypto, I personally feel that bitcoin has been taken over by wall street. the ETFs rule it. a down market is a down bitcoin. but worse is that bitcoin front runs and has even higher volatility. SNP choppiness leads to larger chops down by btc with smaller recoveries up. Govt/institutional buyers are using it as a store of value but its losing value - and retail isn't buying enough to have any momentum. Every rally is getting sold. Instead I'm thinking that the crypto revolution is stablecoins. Faster to send stablecoins than wire. I sold some bitcoin and sent the USDC to my robinhood in seconds. Feels like we are going to dump below 100 this month. SPY dump to 670 will easily bring BTC under 90.

El_Peregrine

This price action in context with other markets (ie, SPY, QQQ, gold all ripping) is not great. Looks super weak for the short to medium term.

Financial-Seesaw-817

Imo, only invest 10-20% dca into bitcoin, ethereum, xrp, etc... no meme crypto. 2 years and they could be up, down, same as today after bear market, w/e. But they will go back up in next bull market. I would build up savings to that emergency number you set. Usually, at least 3 mos of bills. Hysa is nice, bonds too. CD, w/e. If you have roth or 401k, max it. Put extra into an ira, taxable brokerage. QQQ, VUG, TQQQ, QQQM, SPY, ETC... Don't feel like you have to rush into a house until you are ready. All of this will help you keep wealth and grow it. Building a asset pool and lowering taxes. Then the home and property becomes all that much better. Don't rush it. It's about what you keep, not what you spend.

jurassicman11

Idk why yall be acting like you have to be rich to invest or trade options. $5/week will do, compounding exists. SPY and GLD 0DTE options sometimes cost as low as $3 and moon to over $500 with enough volatility. Once you learn how the market moves then you use it to your advantage. Learn or get left behind

Syncopat3d

Neither extreme is good. What about rebalancing into other thing like SPY or QQQ and not putting all the eggs in one basket?

G3RSTY7

The way I’d treat this is explain to him that you’d like him to diversify a bit (BTC, gold/plat, SPY whatever) but you can have a big bag of XRP. If XRP moons you’ll be like “dang shoulda listened to my dad could have had more oh well” but it’d still be a win/win. If he goes all in on XRP and you’re left with little—your memories of him might be slightly less fond..

ApplicationMean8503

Dumb comparison - bitcoin should be compared to a single stock like NVIDIA or possibly even Robinhood. When an index exist for crypto you can then compare v SPY. HOOD is up 389% over 1yr - just saying…

astroslostmadethis

Recession Indicator. XRP? Bitcoin or Ethereum only for actual "investing". And even that is speculating to much. Depending on how much the savings is. It might just be smarter and safer to drop it into SPY/ETF/Bonds etc. A retirement account even.

Pure_shenanigans_310

BTC is up 55% on the 1y while the SPY is up just under 20%. QQQ is up 29%...

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Post is by: Accomplished_Olive99 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/optionscalping/comments/1ojg6gm/trump_trade_tariff_call_strategy/ # A Behavioral-Driven Market Reversal Model # Overview The *Trump Tariff Call Strategy* is based on a recurring behavioral pattern observed during Donald Trump’s trade policy communications on Twitter and Truth Social. Historically, markets tend to sell off sharply following his **negative tariff threats**, then rebound when he **softens or reverses** his stance within days or weeks. This pattern allows traders to take a **contrarian long position** after an initial panic — anticipating a softening tweet and subsequent market recovery. # Behavioral Foundation Trump’s communication cycle on tariffs follows four repeatable phases: 1. **Hardline Announcement** – Tweets or statements introducing new or increased tariffs (“25% on all Chinese goods”). 2. **Market Reaction** – Volatility spikes, equities pull back, and safe-haven flows rise. 3. **Softening Communication** – Tweets suggesting talks, delays, or exemptions (“Great progress, we’ll delay tariffs for Christmas”). 4. **Market Recovery** – Risk assets rebound as perceived threat subsides. Analysis of six major tariff episodes (2018–2025) shows: * Average delay to softening: **≈ 35 days** * Median delay: **≈ 12 days** * Typical market rebound: **+3–5 % on SPY** # Trading Logic |Phase|Market Emotion|Typical Timing|Strategy Action| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**1. Tariff Threat**|Fear, uncertainty|Day 0|Wait for panic; identify volatility spike| |**2. Capitulation Window**|Maximum fear|Days 1–3|Enter long or buy SPY/QQQ call spreads| |**3. Softening/Deal Tweets**|Relief, optimism|Days 5–20|Take profits on rebound| |**4. Drift Phase**|Neutralization|—|Exit if no reversal by \~30 days| # Execution Model **Trigger:** Detect tariff-related keywords in Trump’s posts (“tariffs,” “China,” “trade deal,” “punish,” “delay,” etc.). **Entry Condition:** Within 1–3 days of the announcement, when SPY or QQQ have dropped ≥ 1.5 % and VIX > 20. **Trade Structure:** * Buy 1–3 week **call spreads** on SPY or QQQ. * Optional hedge: short VIX calls or buy S&P futures. **Exit Conditions:** * Positive or conciliatory tweet appears, *or* * Market rebounds ≥ 3 %, *or* * 15 trading days elapse. # Statistical Survival Model A Kaplan–Meier survival analysis of major tariff announcements shows: |Metric|Value (days)| |:-|:-| |Mean time to softening|87.8| |Median (without long outlier)|≈ 12| |25th / 75th percentiles|5 / 89| |Typical softening window|2–35 days| Interpretation: Most tariff threats “survive” less than a month before Trump softens; half reverse inside two weeks. # Example **Event:** Aug 1 2019 — “10 % tariffs on $300 B of Chinese goods.” **Market:** SPY −3 % in two sessions. **Follow-up:** Aug 13 2019 — “Tariff delay for Christmas season.” **Result:** SPY +4 % rebound → 150–250 % call-spread gain. # Conclusion The *Trump Tariff Call Strategy* exploits a predictable behavioral feedback loop between Trump’s communication style and market psychology. Each cycle begins with **shock and fear**, then resolves through **softening rhetoric** that fuels relief rallies. By systematically identifying tariff-related threats and timing entries around volatility peaks, traders can capture **short-term mean-reversion gains** with defined risk — effectively **turning political noise into a structured trading edge**. [https://cromcall.com/trumpcall-strategy](https://cromcall.com/trumpcall-strategy) [Calculator](https://cromcall.com/trumpcall-strategy) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

605_

I’m not. Been following Barron’s short BTC/long BTC positions for SPY and it’s been paying off past 2 weeks.

TroubleInMyMind

New York Stock Exchange ticker SPY.

Vivid_Gift3543

This was me 3 yrs ago. I was mostly all in on SPY only, then started to dca monthly eqaully in to btc. Fastfoward now, BtC returns is more than entire spy bag. Take the pill dont look back

Sea_Variety_1691

yep, BTC is still up 26% on USD YTD as well, tho a lot of that is down to the dollar declining (which i guess is a core fundamental) honestly my conviction in bitcoin grew when i saw it only declined 20% during the tariff scare in April and it was holding up better than SPY at points. i'm not as confident as everyone else seems to be that there will be another 50% drawdown so i'm just stacking as much as i can now

Mohammad_Noruzi

NVDA and SPY are the only stocks that look good to me. also shorting INTL would be good too

daybyday209

SPY ATH, QQQ ATH, more than a handful of the MAG7 stocks at ATH. Maybe the move up happens in the last 2 months, but anyone who says the best place to park your money in for 2025 was BTC is flat out lying.

Croyscape

I totally see him buying SPY calls day before announcing another round tariffs

findingkieron

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) $672.48 +$93.24 (+16.10%) Past year Bitcoin (BTC) $110,540.00 +$42,326.00 (+62.05%) Past year

biba8163

BTC is absoultely gettting murdered this year after 155% in 2023 and 121% in 2024. - QQQ 19% YTD - BTC 17% YTD - SPY 14% YTD

Few_Response_7028

I mean if you [look at the math](https://casebitcoin.com/charts), we're still doing great. We're doing way better than SPY.

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Post is by: SoftKill21 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1odm85w/where_most_edges_die_between_idea_and_execution/ I’ve been trading and building systems for over a decade. Some of them looked perfect. Smooth equity curve, tight drawdown, even the sort of Sharpe that makes you double check the math. Then I added realistic costs such as a few ticks of slippage, doubled commission, average spread per pair and watched them all fall apart. That’s when it hit me. You don’t trade your idea. You trade your *execution*. Every backtest hides a cost layer: fill delay, partials, liquidity depth, and time exposure. The live market doesn’t care about your model, it cares how you enter it. Example from this year. SPY one-minute or five-minutes, mean reversion model. Looked great in sim. Added two-tick slippage per side and 0.03% fee. Edge dropped from +0.8R to negative. Same logic. Just friction. What changed for me was simple: I started treating cost like data. Each pair gets a ledger with spread, slippage, and exposure time logged after every session. You start seeing patterns. Quiet hours with tight quotes. Volatile periods where depth collapses. On top of that I started to look at bigger sessions, minimum 15min timeframes, but my preferred ones are at 60min timeframe systems. It gives so much more room to breath. The same thing applies for manual trading as well. I saw so many systems getting rekt by the market order fills, by having huge gaps, especially on the high volatility periods. Both ways, from entry or from exit, so this is a very important field, yet not so many put accent into it. I know, it sounds boring, but boring is what ends up paying in the end. So I was curious about you reader, how much attention honestly you put into this hidden field? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

dataCollector42069

im green thanks to leaving crypto for stocks. AMD pump did me well. Also made money with memes such as OPEN and traditional SPY DCAing

dataCollector42069

btc isnt worth the risk to reward ratio compared to my SPY DCA either. I am just waiting for eth to come below $2k and will snag some

Future-Bet4783

BTC’s returns are on par with SPY. Very Excellent!

Alkthree

To be fair it’s no different from what this administration has been doing with SPY. No one/no asset is safe when the president of the largest economy in the world is a grifter.

Simke11

This sub loves "time in the market", thinking they are buying SPY and not shitcoins

ImthatRootuser

BTC year to date is lower than SPY. Loll

McChickenLargeFries

Bitcoin can still easily dump below $100k, SPY is literally even with the price it was 1 month ago.. It has room to drop, which in turn will cause bitcoin to drop even further. Do I want this to happen? No, not at all.. Do I think it will happen? Probably not, especially with another rate cut due coming soon and more quantitative easing.. But everyone thinks quantitative easing and rate cuts are going to bring easy money.. Just like everyone thought this would be "Uptober".. So the bottom line is that it can go up, but it can go do. Thank you for coming to my ted talk.

2020redditlurker

I'm shocked. I played this cycle very conservative. Most in BTC, none in Eth, small percent in alts, auto sell at $138K, closely watching any signals. Nothing could have prepared me for the crazy non upwards volitility , fake early alt season , earlyish top in Jan, crash in April then back up to weakly double top at 125 without triggering any indicators. And don't even mention Eth which is still below 2021 peak. And that scam plunge on alts last week and general manipulation. Oh and BTC 1 yr? Similar to SPY on my 401K. Plus the recent flight to safety in gold vs btc. It's going to take years for my disillusionment to fade if ever.

R3dFiveStandingBye

I bought $500 of gold a little before it went crazy because why not, honestly I may just stick to BTC, Gold and QQQ/SPY

Fun-Sundae4060

That’s a common misconception as well. LETFs that are below the “efficient frontier” of leverage are meant to be held long term, not day-traded. I myself have been holding my positions for over half a year now, mostly all LETFs. The efficient frontier for something like SPY is 3x. For QQQ it is 2x. For BTC, it is 1.2-1.4x. The higher the volatility, the lower the leverage is considered efficient for long term holding. Yes this means BITX is above the efficient frontier so you should hold for too long, but you’ll still make tons of money in a bull run holding for months at a time like I did.

repliesinpasta

even weirder, my grandmother in government told me to liquidate my net worth and go all in on SPY puts

Individual_1ne

Yup. SPY +5%. Btc -25%. As is tradition.

VariatCA

With how many people in here chase Alts & Memes in lieu of BTC, you could probably count on one hand the number of people who would responsibly just invest long-term in SPY/QQQ shares in here. Plenty of FOMO/meme stocks out there to lure gamblers in too.

qwertydcf

SPY at 652 thats okay

theplushpairing

Aug 2011 if you look at SPY performance in Gold https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart

Individual_1ne

The fact that spy is +36% off the bottom of original tariff announcement just goes to show how debased this entire market is. I don't see why SPY wouldn't revisit those levels now that the big boys have gotten their chance to unload on retail and enter their short positions.

Longjumping-Bonus723

After all long leverage was liquidated successfully last friday, it's time for alt season :) watch the charts. I never seen that pattern. SPY up, BTC stable, Alts Up... Very weird.

amayle1

I mean he has a point. If you just invested in SPY, VGT, or gold this year you are doing better. But also gold has never doubled in one year so 🤷‍♂️

donjoe0

I mean VGS of course, since it's tech/AI, but SPY has been equaled this year by the much safer XAD1 (or similar physical gold ones) and far surpassed by GDXJ (or others based on gold mining). The problem with AI is it will hit a wall of electrical power availability (demand far outpacing the physical development of power generation facilities), maybe even this winter as household demand for heating surges and power companies could have to cut off the data centers to keep the homes powered. Then you'd see a pretty deep correction as investors wake up to the realities of how fast AI can really develop under power availability constraints. If you can get ahead of that the optimal play might be to rotate into power infrastructure ETFs (or one could start to take positions in there already, I haven't decided yet for myself), since that will need massive furious development to stop being a bottleneck for AI.

here_we_go_beep_boop

VAS/VGS/SPY have done great for me

VariatCA

...The general S&P/SPY index is nowhere *close* to averaging +100% every 4 years, jesus christ lmao. And you can suspect all you want about what Retail will do over a decade from now. The only way Retail won't be nearly as involved in 10+ years will be due to governments/institutions/whales controlling the unbelievably-vast majority of it... and amongst themselves, it will still remain in high demand.

Individual_1ne

I suspect retail will have left well before 2037 at that rate. And then anyone with $$$ would have to justify their own use case other than extracting retails money. SPY basically paces at 2x every 4 years as well and is far less volatile and liquid.

meshreplacer

Gamble other peoples money you get the end of the barrel. Especially when gambling money that belongs to GUR and other top dogs. Play with fire get burned. he should have just stuck the 10M in SPY.

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Post is by: Excellent_Struggle37 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1o47t7o/spx420_the_official_q4_2025_bear_market_memecoin/ First Memecoing to predict the fall of all risk assets in the during the last quarter of 2025 was created at the end of September. Is SPY ridiculously really going to 420? Did the insider really leave already? Let's all find out together but this it deserves some eyes for now for being created at the perfect moment and making the call for Q4 Turbulence. Well this is a wendy's so why not. Honest thought please? Do we like the memecoin. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Low-Paramedic-6057

If you need to do a video talking about this and post it online, it's because part of what you know is that you know that other people need to know ... BTC is like religion, it only works if people believe and keep pouring money in ... It's not like the volatility is just because BTC is pure speculation. Behind SPY you have 500 productive business. Behind each stock you have someone producing something. And behind BTC you have people like this. Don't get me wrong, I love the BTC concept.

BobLoblawBlahB

I would totally believe that this was insider, but curious to know how unusual this really is? Looked at the btc chart and while yesterday did have a very big move, it doesn't stand out like it does on SPY chart, for example. Is a multi-million dollar short that rare or is it plausible that this was just someone getting lucky on timing?

Backrus

Malding about zero earnings/revenue while being in BTC is kinda ironic, don't you think? First of all, learn about risk- and volatility-adjusted returns. Not your absolute % nonsense not applicable in Wall St world (the one that hijacked your favourite coin). Now, learn math behind those calculations. Let's see, you're comparing asset (BTC) to index (SPY), so it's uninformed at best, and most likely disingenuous (just like Saylor's 60% CAGR when in reality it's been 10% since 2021). Given that BTC is not a part of S&P, choosing it as benchmark will always put you in a good spot. But somebody else could point to, eg GREK or EPOL which outperformed BTC 2x this year. It also would be disingenuous. To each his own. Now, be honest and compare BTC to NVDA (leader to leader), or gold (SoV vs wannabe SoV), or to silver (similar market cap). Or compare it to vol-related stocks and their returns (implied vol, realized vol flatlined since April). Not to mention, you're probably operating using USD, look at BTC price action in stable currencies like CHF (or even EUR). It's abysmal. And don't talk about "longer time horizon" because the game has changed in November 2024 when IBIT options launched. That's the new era - era of "shitty" returns for BTC. Your narrative falls apart the moment you look at the data behind your favourite KOL's talking points. I'm done. Have a nice day :)

ratpH1nk

In other news some placed a 12.5M put order for on $SPY at $520 11/28 exp at a cost basis of 0.60 now trading at 1.27 (close) was as high as 1.31 and the 201,000 call interest is still open. Not a bad way to make 12.5M in 1 day.

VariatCA

BTC is its own class of a long-term store of value, but there's a reason gold has 13x the Mcap and is still globally accepted as such. It's got a precedence that dates back as far as the history of recorded civilization for being such lol. And BTC is doing more than fine on every single metric compared to the general stock indexes/ETF's like QQQ or SPY. "One of the worst-performing assets in the world" is just a label you give while hoping nobody *actually* looks at the charts to disprove it. From the tariff-lows of April, BTC is *still* up 50% even after what happened yesterday, and was as high as 65% just days prior. Sure you can pick & choose some stocks that have done better... but BTC is has still performed better than the S&P, SPY, QQQ, or Nasdaq. It's more volatile, so the drops are more noticeable... but it has stronger periods of recovery and success to make up for that, which go completely unrecognized.

General-Ease2907

Great discount. I bought a bunch of SPY and NDAQ yesterday too.

uTurnSpecialist

Put it into stock indices SPY QQQ of the sort. BTC ETH is TOO volatile, everyone on leverage got liquidated (its an unregulated market for a reason). Look at XRP, EVERYONE got liquidated within 1 min. Its a scam dude open your eyes, move onto stock indices and start over.

Glum_Coyote_378

The SPY is falling!!!

VariatCA

When the second tweet came out in after-market, SPY (The big S&P tracker basically) Dropped about 1% more in aftermarket trading, before almost completely recovering to its daily-close value from earlier. This weekend will probably be a little bleak for Crypto, but Stocks didn't hold nearly as rough a reaction to the second news development. BTC at market-close was still around 117k with ETH at ~4k. Just hang tight, keep your ears open for any news / relations / negotiations this weekend, and buy the dip if you're bold enough. We may get a decent reversal come Monday.

VariatCA

By "compared to other assets", you mean picking and choosing which stocks to compare BTC against on specific timeframes? BTC is practically the "index of crypto" at this point considering its dominance, and an aft comparison is against either SPY/QQQ or the Nasdaq. And I'm assuming you mean Trump taking a sledgehammer to Chinese export/trade markets during stock aftermarket hours, where only our 24/7 market is open to freak out about how bad his announcement was lol. No worries, SPY was open in aftermarket trading and also took a gigantic shit.

fire_him

All great questions. We are very pretty vanilla, we have 2 holdings on the stock side SPY and QQQ. 3 assets total including BTC. We were all very much inspired by the FIRE movement so keeping investment simple made sense for us. We buy x amount every month. Plan is to not sell any BTC at all ever (willing to transact in sats if needed). Its also under a LLC so we each report it. Decision to sell, how we would sell, etc all written in an operating agreement we have. For example, we all have to agree to sell an asset if we head that direction.

LargeSnorlax

Actual reality: - Gold 5year: 100% - SPY 5 year: 94% - QQQ 5 year: 113% - Bitcoin 5 year: 1058% Gold can have its +2% day.

HauntingAardvark521

Nice SPY recovery today… crypto, what’s that?

k_brn

This might be the most reliable "buy and forget" strategy for a 30-year horizon. SPY was created 32 years ago - if you bought it in 1993 and woke up today, you could still sell it.

1Tim1_15

Congrats man. I went through basic years ago. If I were in your boots today (and this is not financial advice) I'd put around $5,000 in BTC. Why not more? We're currently at/near all-time-highs, and I still think the 4 year cycle is going to play out, although probably extended. If it does, that means a bear market is coming when you'll have plenty of time to buy at lower prices. If trends continue, the bear market will start in the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2026...plenty of time. But anything could happen, so I'd at least get some BTC now. For the rest of the money, I would put some or all USDC at Coinbase and let it earn 4.1%. That's if I was paranoid about the stock market, which right now I'm not. Whatever I didn't put in USDC @ Coinbase I'd put in the SPY index fund (tracks the S&P 500) which is doing well right now and doesn't seem to be close to a downtrend. But anything could happen. I have computer and accounting degrees and they never taught us how to manage personal money. So, I recommend Dave Ramsey's baby steps...just google that. I don't agree w his credit card ideas but for some people it's the correct advice. Just the fact that you're asking where to put your money is a good sign. Best of luck!

dataCollector42069

SPY would like a word with you

StimpackDealer1

You need to just put that money in a high yield savings account and dollar cost average into bitcoin and SPY. You don’t have the stomach for a lump some investment with a post like this

Odd-Condition-4528

I love Bitcoin so don't get me wrong but #1 rule is don't invest in anything you don't know. Here is my real suggestion follow the buffett rule 90-10 to $SPY/index funds and 10% government bonds

TyreesesCup

You should consider diversifying. Look at VOO or SPY or maybe some dividend stocks. It might ease your worry to not have all your eggs in one basket.

Annual_Juggernaut_47

Sure. But I’d wager BTC will outperform SPY and QQQ from here through end of this year.

dataCollector42069

yeah I have discretionary capital I can afford to lose, its just DCAing into the SPY/QQQ seems better right now

Quixotus

Next stop $150k, then $200k straight after. It's almost too easy at this point. Just buy and hold through any dip, because it's guaranteed it will make a new high sooner or later. It's been like that for the past 20 years. Just look at SPY all-time chart. It's the same with BTC. Buy at any point, hold through any dip, cash out once you're sufficiently happy with the gains. It's the infinite money glitch.

biba8163

*If you are lucky enough to be an investor who has access investments in the capital markets in the U.S, you really should diversify.* There are a lot of people in developing and 3rd world countries who don't have access this type of market that are relatively efficient, high growth, free of corruption and manipulation and BTC may be the only option for them. Use February 2021 as a starting point when BTC reached $1 Trillion marketcap as a global asset and not 2018, 2013 or 2010 when BTC was either a relatively small or tiny asset giving you some outrageous CAGR which cannot be repeated by a multi-trillion marketcap asset. From there BTC performance is still impressive but it's more in line with other traditional assets. It's actually very impressive that despite the huge appreciation in gold with central banks buying thousands of metric tons of it in the last few years and the AI narrative and CapEX spending in the stock market, BTC is still a top performer among these assets in the last ~5 years from when it reached a $1 Trillion marketcap. I throw individual stocks in the comparison because people inevitably scream NVDA today like they screamed TSLA in 2020. Outpeformance of various asset classes, individual stocks and even BTC wanes and waxes and nothing is guaranteed so diversification is key. BTC has been a great diversifier even after reaching a monstrous $1 Trillion marketcap. *Annualized from 02/19/2021 when BTC reached $1 Trillion Marketcap* | Asset | From Date | CAGR | |:-----------|------------:|:------------:| | NVDA | 02/19/2021| 75.1% | META | 02/19/2021| 24.28% | MSFT | 02/19/2021| 18.06% | GOLD | 02/19/2021| 17.87% | BTC | 02/19/2021| 17.20% | AAPL | 02/19/2021| 16.18% | QQQ | 02/19/2021| 13.65% | SPY | 02/19/2021| 12.38% | GOOGL | 02/19/2021| 11.57% | TSLA | 02/19/2021| 11.44% | AMZN | 02/19/2021| 6.74%

gosb

Your going to get a bunch of pro Bitcoin responses in the Bitcoin sub. This thread was recommended in my feed and I'm not subbed to Bitcoin. I'm not pro Bitcoin. I will say this, investing is believing it'll still go up even though it's at a all time high. SPY, NVDA, etc keeps shattering their ath walls. I didn't believe in BTC when it was $60k this time last year. I underestimated how far a pro Bitcoin president would take things. Things are different then they were 12 months ago because there's a lot more support. I still don't believe in it personally for the long-term but it seems like a more solid investment then 12 months ago. If your a investor, go for it. If your a trader maybe wait and hope for another drop.

xarips

> /s for the MAGA maybe you should take a look at the SPY, lefty

dalvik_spx

The cause of “uptober” is quite simple: it is the beginning of Q4,and if markets have done well during the year, this forces sidelined tradfi capital into the market, needing to keep up with competitors and their own benchmarks. This is not just a simple matter of fomo, it is a necessity to keep up with your benchmarks and competitors, or you will lose AUM or even your job. BTC is a great vehicle for this, due to its high volatility, returns and liquidity. Not much can substitute for it in this regard. This is especially true if SPY and GOLD are up a lot on the year; it’s only natural to begin eyeing BTC as a way to catch up. Conditions going into the end of this year could not be more perfect for a textbook performance chase, as many were shaken out by the tariff tantrum and either underperformed or some still (esp liberals and moderates) sidelined entirely. Many of the traditional crypto specific seasonality effects are fading in relevance with a fundamentally different set of participants driving the market post ETFs. But the drivers of the Q4 performance chase have become more relevant, if anything. Credits: [https://x.com/grimacexbt/status/1973741517039878343](https://x.com/grimacexbt/status/1973741517039878343)

De4dMoney

Here is what I found today on X by @grimacexbt an excellent account to follow “Why is October often so bullish? The cause of “uptober” is quite simple: it is the beginning of Q4,and if markets have done well during the year, this forces sidelined tradfi capital into the market, needing to keep up with competitors and their own benchmarks. This is not just a simple matter of fomo, it is a necessity to keep up with your benchmarks and competitors, or you will lose AUM or even your job. BTC is a great vehicle for this, due to its high volatility, returns and liquidity. Not much can substitute for it in this regard. This is especially true if SPY and GOLD are up a lot on the year; it’s only natural to begin eyeing BTC as a way to catch up. Conditions going into the end of this year could not be more perfect for a textbook performance chase, as many were shaken out by the tariff tantrum and either underperformed or some still (esp liberals and moderates) sidelined entirely. Many of the traditional crypto specific seasonality effects are fading in relevance with a fundamentally different set of participants driving the market post ETFs. But the drivers of the Q4 performance chase have become more relevant, if anything.”

Irish_swede

If you can only double up once in 15 years then you suck. Just picking SPY with drip would result in a 4-5x in 15 years on top of your contributions as well.

TheRealTheory001

It's more than just psychology though. Could see SPY retrace as it's had a huge run, I could see that having an effect. I think we're macro bullish though.

meepstone

Dude lol... Tesla stock would be $6,606 right now without the stock splits. So you're criticizing her for being right about Tesla share price... You cherry pick stuff so I'll cherry pick something too ARKW is up 938% total return vs SPY 306.59% total return since ARKW inception. Something you need to realize is every fund manager, analyst, research company will be wrong many times about lots of stocks. By your logic you wouldn't listen to any of them. It's statistically impossible for anyone to be right all the time and never make bad predictions. Michael Burry who nailed the housing crash has been wrong dozens of times and loses money on stocks. But people worship anythecsays because he got famous for 1 big trade.

DifficultyMoney9304

Im talking short term. Since the 22nd the SPY has temporarily rolled over - which coincided with the rather violent recent flush we've had on crypto.. Gold is on another level.

Yorn2

If anyone says anything other than DCA (even for lump sum amounts that could otherwise sit in money market accounts or SPY ETF while you DCA) they are not offering sound financial advice for the average person. But to be fair, you're asking for financial advice on the Internet, go talk to a financial advisor and take their advice seriously. Tell them you are committed to some form of BTC ownership but give them your age and they'll help you for planning for more than any sort of get rich quick plans you might think you're getting into with BTC.

ryan69plank

the Alt season already happened a while back with the AI coins exploding it was a quick short Alt season I think right now theres been some recent alt coin action but with BTC selling down so hard its created another consolidation period the last year or two has more felt like a winter but with no proper bear.... I think with the Nasdq and the SPY so inflated the alt coins might crash tbh

MakCapital

Exchange what? Texit? I wasn't referring to that btw. That's one of the sh*t tokens that only takes 5 seconds to know you should avoid. No one is using that or will ever use it. Use defilama to determine what people actually use if you are new. Then spend the next few months purely just researching BTC, SOL, ETH, HYPE, SUI. Learn the fundamentals of the majors. Then you'll quickly know how to weed out the garbage. Remember, everything in the world is becoming a token. Nvidia, SpaceX, SPY now all tokens. Need to know what you own if you own a token. Tokens are just representation of ownership over something else. Is that something else worth holding? Outside of tokens there are L1 coins. There's only around 3-4 L1s that actually still matter outside Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the only L1 that doesn't need revenue. Everything else is revenue or bust. Texit appears to be some L1 coin cash grab if I'm looking at right site. A trash fork. Pure garbage. As for lending on major defi lending platforms, all borrowing is fully collateralized. Not sure what you were asking about that.