SPY

biba8163

> ETH performed second best at the current time. So you only want to compare ETH to Shitcoins that lose money? ETH has an annualized return of 3.3% over a ~7 year period. It's a toxic non-performing asset. You could have mad more money in U.S. Treasuries staking fiat at zero risk than holding ETH. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 24.93% | QQQ | 16.82% | GOLD | 13.26% | SPY | 9.91% | ETH | 3.3%

BitcoinBaller420

Good point. I looked into this more and found this WSJ article from 2020 talking about Tesla not being included due to the committee: [https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-tesla-was-left-out-of-the-s-p-500-11599579707](https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-tesla-was-left-out-of-the-s-p-500-11599579707) The article improves my "at least 500m in SPY" estimate, ballparking the funds that passively track the index at 11 trillion dollars at that time. It means Strategy inclusion would result in 10 figures of price-insensitive buying, which Saylor will turn one way or another into bitcoin. Good to know not to bet the farm they will be included at the first opportunity though.

BitcoinBaller420

And still 20% below all time highs. Only 6-7% away from Strategy joining the S&P500. When this happens, It will enter the index already inside the top 100 companies... index funds are going to need to buy a lot of shares to balance the index. Total S&P500 market cap \~50T. The SPY ETF alone is about $500m market cap, or roughly 1% of the equity of these companies. If a $100b company enters the index, it creates $1b of price-insensitive demand for the shares. just from SPY alone. If that demand drives up the share price, they need to buy even more. Yet another fly-wheel driving bitcoin adoption engages.

BitcoinBaller420

Judging by the volume data, lots of bitcoiners are taking this advice. In the week after "Liberation day" April 2nd, SPY volumes spiked 3x at least (source: marketchameleon). Bitcoin volumes don't show any obvious change during this period. Bitcoiners dgaf they refuse to panic sell. We picked up a lot more quality hodlers last cycle and they are paving the way for another big move up with this behavior.

d8_thc

[GLD + BTC vs QQQ/SPY/DXY/TLT](https://i.imgur.com/YpCOwWr.png)

dyrnwyn580

Not so fast. The correlation argument is taken from velocity, yes. But on the sixth month, the SPY is -12% while BTC is +30%. There is much more going on right now than when it was a risk on, speculative, asset.

BitcoinBaller420

SPY down 3% and falling as I write this. Bitcoin up nearly 3% day over day.  Let’s keep some perspective here this is an incredible Bitcoin performance. 

fresh_start0

Tech socks annihilated SPY down 3% DXY down 1% Euro up 1% Bitcoin and gold up 3% It's begun.....

biba8163

Reminder to NOOBs that BTC behaves completely different than other classes. BTC zig zags from ~0.5 to ~0.75 correlation to the S&P and NASDAQ to spiking to negative correlation every few months which is oftentimes when it makes its biggest moves up or down. - July 2024. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC tanks. - January 2024. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC pumps big. - October 2023. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC pumps big BTC is Digital Gold but it does not follow Gold. BTC closely follows the stock market until it doesn't. BTC divergence is why it has outperformed the S&P, NASDAQ, Gold over long periods (7-years) even when it has been a large marketcap of over $250 Billion. - BTC is THE diversifier for out-performance in your portfolios. - Shitcoins are Toxic Assets for under-performance in your portfolios. Shitcoins have a parasitical dependency on BTC, historically have ~0.90 correlation with BTC, under-perform BTC, under-perform S&P/NASDAQ, under-perform Gold, under-perform Treasuries and most of the successful ones are guaranteed to make you lose money. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 22.19% | QQQ | 16% | GOLD | 11.3% | SPY | 10.8% | ETH | 1.1% | ADA | -8.5% | XRP | -9.25%

fubar_giver

3 months since the new administration and SPY is down 13% DOW is down 11%, BTC is down 18%. It's holding better than most crypto and certainly some individual stocks, overall its not looking much better.

warriorlynx

That's an argument I don't necessarily accept, it's a speculative store of value at this point in time, it's best hedge is clearly against altcoins especially during a bear market. There is some correlation with other assets/index funds like SPY. I have yet to see hard evidence that it's a hedge against anything else

Just-a-demon

If you have a 6 month emergency fund of savings tucked in a HYSA, then by all means; go 100% into BTC. You could also simultaneously DCA the SPX/SPY just to be safe

WasKnown

Even if 99% of SPY gains from the last 12 months were from 1 stock, US equities - that stock still would have severely outperformed ETH. Also, BTC is definitely a risk asset and it’s up significantly as well. I am not saying ETH never has another moment (just look at XRP) but I am saying that holding ETH was undeniably a mistake for the 2023/2024 bull market.

qwertydcf

no im basing it of SPY that lost 100 points in 2 month on the day 18 Feb. Thats insane and a major buying opportunity imo. You can do whatever u want, fomo buy in, you will never catch the bottom.

qwertydcf

Everybody here only cares about profits. But lets be real, SPY is down 100 points since Feb 18, this year. So 2 months. Thats insane. I say it agian 100 points, IN 2 fucking MONTHS. Could it drop more yes. Could this be the best buying opportunity in years YES. So why pussy out. And i know this is crypto blabla SPY = Bitcoin / they move the same.

biba8163

> The imbecile mindset... to buy more eth I wholeheartedly agree with this take - ETH is an non-performing asset mid/long term. If dummies want to make LESS money taking MORE risk, than ETH is an excellent choice - If you want to earn more than ETH at ZERO risk, then you can stake FIAT which guarantee ~5% returns. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame with relatively large marketcaps* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 21.19% | QQQ | 16% | GOLD | 11.3% | SPY | 10.8% | ETH | 1.21%

Evanbm2003

Yeah I see what you’re saying, but it is still so impressive that BTC is holding up this well. If this stuff had happened like 6 years ago BTC would have dropped like 50% when the SPY goes down 15%. We’ll see what happens in the future. But hey, QQQ is down -7.00% this month and BTC is up +0.08% 👀

Dazzling_Marzipan474

Ya I have incredibly bad timing sometimes. I also sold my last SPY stock put on 4/1. The day before You know who crashed the market. 😂 Can't complain tho, made a little money.

qwertydcf

Bitcoin is nothing special anymore, just another stock. It moves exactly like SPY, and is slow as fuck. 40mins for 1 transaction. There are sooo much more better coins in the Market. Whoever says othervise never tryd to buy anything with Bitcoin. 2025 and have to wait 30-45 mins for my btc to come.

biba8163

I am not saying gold is not going to outperform but I wouldn't bet on gold. Gold has artificial scarcity. Gold production tends to increase to meet demand/price. - After gold peak in ~1980, Gold prices were down for over 20+ years. - After gold peak again in ~2011, gold again was down for 7-8 years. You're buying gold now, there is a good chance you are buying at or near the peak again. It takes time investment, mining, infrastructure to be put in place to meet demand/price and after that gold prices staganate for years. Still, since BTC became a large cap with over $250 Billion marketcap in 2017/18, it still has outperformed gold by a lot over a ~7 year time frame. - Comparing 2017/18 ATHs of BTC and ETH over a ~7 year time period which is a good reference point because the S&P 500 doubles every 7 years providing an annual return of ~10%. - BTC outperforms S&P 500 and Gold - ETH is absolute dogshit performance with 1.5% annualized return lagging even U.S Treasuries - Alts. XRP was the only other large cap Alt that reached $100 Billion marketcap, and it's returns a negative annual return over long time frames. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 21% | QQQ | 15% | GOLD | 11% | SPY | 10% | ETH | 1.5% | XRP | -9%

MixtapeNostalgia

Average annual return for BTC is something like 80% and that is just since 2015. Fuck SPY lmfao. The dollar is dead. If you care more about SPY than BTC you're already living in the past and are beyond delusional.

mdnz

50% conservative, lmao That’s around 6 times as much as a regular fund like SPY. Try 12-15% if you want to be conservative and that’s already pretty aggressive at these prices I’d say.

xx123234

These posts keep getting more weird YTD SPY - 9% BTC - 14% Gold + 22%

mollylovelyxx

This volatility is pitiful and trash. This asset used to move so much. Literally SPY moves more than BTC now. Someone tag me if we have a 10% day up or down I don’t even care at this point. Until then I won’t even look at the markets and am more interested in watching the PGA masters game than this (I never watch golf)

SocialSuicideSquad

Survive yes. But in a real recession (2020 did not count) I expect BTC to perform far worse than the indices... Even in 2020 it drilled twice as hard as SPY.

SocialSuicideSquad

Resilience during the COVID crash? The fuck you say From Feb highs BTC drilled ***70%*** while SPY dropped 33%. It has pumped like crazy on low interest rates and cash injection, but it's never seen a real recession... The next year or three should be interesting.

b1mm3rl1f3

Yes I think BTC officially decouples in 2025. The first signal was the Chinese yuan pouring into BTC as it falls to lowest levels in 18y (BTC reserves on exchanges are already extremely low). Then I caught a tweezer top on the $DJI 12M + a climbing 10y + imploding equity market just shows the extreme stress. Then we printed a great CPI this morning with 0 response to the data. Doesn’t add up. These huge stock rallies are also classic bear market behaviours. I think ppl will think the buying opportunity is in stocks, when they drop, but it isn’t. $SPY won’t see another ATH for a long, long time imo. They have to save bonds therefore stocks must crash and BTC flies

qwertydcf

You just know something is really wrong when SPY is just a pump and dump, like a memecoin. This will end so bad, please one big more pump so i can sell this shit.

Capable-Commission-3

Bro…Even now with the Orange Crash SPY is up 109% over five years. Google is up 176%, Amazon is up 95%, Microsoft is up 142%, Philip Morris is up 101%. It’s fairly easy to guarantee 100% returns in five years. Just have to average 20% a year for five years. Berkshire Hathaway has averaged 56% gains annually for the last 25 years and over 33% annually for the last five years. These aren’t obscure, insider picks. These are well-known stocks that are in every 401k in America. 1,000% returns is much more ambitious. Few companies can do it and it’s not a sure thing. Nvidia is the most well-known to have recently done it, being up over 1,300% the last five years. But TSM and BABA, I suspect, will both 8-10x in the next five years.

SomeTimeBeforeNever

This ain’t no dip lol this is just a wee tremor of the tsunami that’s about to wipe out half of SPY.

Opposite-Car2809

See you guys in one month later when SPY drops another 90& and ETH skyrocketing to 90000!

dreamwave94

Bitcoin 6% in 1 year. SPY down -4.5% in 1 year.

AwareChair6095

Fair point, though you're cherry picking the top from 2021 and a severe dip in 2025. My benchmark is actually SPY. So far, we're outperforming SPY over that time period by about 2x. I'm expecting BTC to outperform the stock market for a few more years, as it may suck monetary premium out of other assets if adoption as digital gold expands. After that, gains will likely roughly keep up with economic growth.

chanmalichanheyhey

at this point crypto might as well have been leverage SPY

biba8163

Shitcoiners like you like to use copium math by cherry picking a time when an asset -95% to the lowest value to show it performs great. See ETH, XRP, ADA and all the shitcoins that are still at 2017/18 prices or lower. Or when a shitcoin have little to no value and was a small marketcap. **Investors that make money like to hold assets that consistently appreciate over the long term so we look at ATHs.** - Comparing 2017/18 ATHs of BTC and ETH over a ~7 year time period which is a good reference point because the S&P 500 doubles every 7 years providing an annual return of ~10%. - BTC outperforms S&P 500 and Gold - ETH is absolute dogshit performance with 3.24% annualized return lagging even U.S Treasuries - Scams like ADA, XRP actually result in losses over long time horizons **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 21% | QQQ | 15% | GOLD | 11% | SPY | 10% | ETH | 1% | ADA | -9% | XRP | -11%

Agronopolopogis

Who is whining? I took out a stack of December puts a month ago on SPY because this was the next obvious move for the market 🤣🤣 You see whining when it's simply facts so in turn you've indicated this hit you emotionally..

ElPeroTonteria

A few points. I look at the charts, I see BTC holding strong AF by comparison to the greater market. I don’t expect BTC to just be a magical lifeboat that never dips. What I do seem to see is, over a multi year timeline BTC outperforms everything else. Every time the markets correct it happens violently. Every time it’s the end of the world. I was trading SPY when the circuit breakers hit so much that trading was stopped for the day a few years ago. 6mo later it’s gonna hurt to look back and see where u made mistakes trading that dip.

jwz9904

everyone is adjusting their targets on SPY

RobotEnthusiast

I went all in on SPY puts last Thursday. They expire end of day Monday.

2_The_Moon_And_Back

SPY 484 😂 omg

A4_Ts

A lot of people here don’t even know what SPY is

2_The_Moon_And_Back

Another -5% on SPY and it could happen

biba8163

- ETH is a toxic on-performing asset mid/long term. If you want to make LESS money taking MORE risk, than ETH is an excellent choice. - If you want to lose money to inflation ETH is an excellent choice - If you want to earn less than staking FIAT which guarantee ~5% returns, ETH is an excellent choice letting you earn less money than the rate of inflation **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* when cryptos were valued at tens of hundred+ billion dollar valuations** (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 21.69% | QQQ | 14.46% | GOLD | 12.03% | SPY | 8.46% | **ETH** | **1.79%**

biba8163

> If bitcoin drops, ethereum will drop - ETH is a toxic on-performing asset mid/long term. If you want to make LESS money taking MORE risk, than ETH is an excellent choice. - If you want to lose money to inflation ETH is an excellent choice - If you want to earn less than staking FIAT which guarantee ~5% returns, ETH is an excellent choice letting you earn less money than the rate of inflation **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* when cryptos were valued at tens of hundred+ dollar valuations** (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 21.69% | QQQ | 14.46% | GOLD | 12.03% | SPY | 8.46% | ETH | 1.79%

Tax__Player

Looks that way, I should have bought more SPY buts on Friday.

mzking87

Because market is highly volatile right now, everyone expects market to dump any given day much higher than usual, hence pricing of options in general is really expensive and returns much smaller than usual. Usually buying SPY options with 0 day expiry will yield high returns if markets move +-1% or higher. Right now that’s not the case.

qwertydcf

SPY went from 620 to 505 points in 1-1/2 months. Thats the biggest drop ive ever seen in my lifetime, worse than corona. So if we bounce back Monday we "might be okay", if we drop more panic will break out.

fefefufufe

Coupled with expectations of Monday SPY dumb not surprising at all

Longjumping-Bonus723

True. Usually when SPY goes down 1%, BTC goes down at least 3%. This time SPY went down 5% and BTC was like fuck you I'm fine :)

LetWinnersRun

If you look at the implied volatility of the Bitcoin ETF's you will realize that Bitcoin is no more volatile than individual stocks. Yeah it's more volatile than SPY or QQQ, but individual stocks not so much.

Graymatter-70

BTC is up 4.7% from Election Day, yes. But it is down 24% from its high. While that drawdown is not as much as the SPY and QQQ declines it’s still pretty bad. Meanwhile, Gold is up 13.8% from Election Day. It, too, gave back some this week, but holding up much better as a true store of value.

El_Peregrine

I can’t recall the numbers off the top of my head, but since the election, BTC is up > 20%, Gold 10%, Commodities generally flat or up 1-2%, and SPY/QQQ/Equities down significantly. Sometimes it’s easy to miss long term trends, but something has been cooking these past 6 months. 

Butter_with_Salt

It's absolutely not just 1 day. Just compare the SPY and BTC charts. Compare both of their prices today to 1 year ago.

RTX_Raytheon

I hope so. I hate that BTC just acts as leveraged SPY anymore.

KingPettyx

Bitcoin decoupling from SPY and DOW is beautiful

biba8163

| Asset | From 2021 ATH| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 19% | QQQ | 9% | SPY | 8% | ETH | -63%

TexasBoyz-713

SPY: -9% for the week, -10% for the month VOO -9% for the week, -10.3% for the month QQQ: -10% for the week, -12.4% for the month NASDAQ: -7% for the week, -13% for the month ****Bitcoin: -1.81% for the week, -6.7% for the month****

El-Grande-

I mean gold is up 15% YTD while SPY is down 10%… slow and steady is that process.. it has its uses

2_The_Moon_And_Back

I do have to admit i’m surprised and happy about its resilience. Thanks for your positivity, I was spiraling when i saw SPY touch -3% premarket. I was thinking here we go to a double bottom 76k.

biba8163

> ETH and BTC are some of the assets best positioned to weather the geopolitical storm. Even fiat cash isn’t safe from devaluation. Anyone still lumping BTC and ETH in the same sentence is either a bagholding shill. Reminder that BTC behaves completely different than other classes. BTC zig zags from ~0.5 to ~0.75 correlation to the S&P and NASDAQ to spiking to negative correlation every few months which is oftentimes when it makes its biggest moves up or down. - July 2024. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC tanks. - January 2024. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC pumps big. - October 2023. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC pumps big BTC is Digital Gold but it does not follow Gold. BTC closely follows the stock market until it doesn't. BTC divergence is why it has outperformed the S&P, NASDAQ, Gold over long periods (7-years) even when it has been a large marketcap of over $250 Billion. - BTC is THE diversifier for out-performance in your portfolios. - Shitcoins are Toxic Assets for under-performance in your portfolios. Shitcoins have a parasitical dependency on BTC, historically have ~0.90 correlation with BTC, under-perform BTC, under-perform S&P/NASDAQ, under-perform Gold, under-perform Treasuries and most of the successful ones are guaranteed to make you lose money. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 22.19% | QQQ | 16% | GOLD | 11.3% | SPY | 10.8% | ETH | 3.24% | ADA | -7.5% | XRP | -8.24%

biba8163

Reminder that BTC behaves completely different than other classes. BTC zig zags from ~0.5 to ~0.75 correlation to the S&P and NASDAQ to spiking to negative correlation every few months which is oftentimes when it makes its biggest moves up or down. - July 2024. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC tanks. - January 2024. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC pumps big. - October 2023. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC pumps big BTC is Digital Gold but it does not follow Gold. BTC closely follows the stock market until it doesn't. BTC divergence is why it has outperformed the S&P, NASDAQ, Gold over long periods (7-years) even when it has been a large marketcap of over $250 Billion. - BTC is THE diversifier for out-performance in your portfolios. - Shitcoins are Toxic Assets for under-performance in your portfolios. Shitcoins have a parasitical dependency on BTC, historically have ~0.90 correlation with BTC, under-perform BTC, under-perform S&P/NASDAQ, under-perform Gold, under-perform Treasuries and most of the successful ones are guaranteed to make you lose money. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 22.19% | QQQ | 16% | GOLD | 11.3% | SPY | 10.8% | ETH | 3.24% | ADA | -7.5% | XRP | -8.24%

R3dFiveStandingBye

Last time the SPY was this low, Bitcoin was 49k, thats… interesting

MansSearchForMeming

I'm honestly surprised it didn't shit the bed more. This is a massive shock to the economy and BTC is still where it was a couple days ago. I'm already way overweight BTC, but the outlook on stocks and bonds for the foreseeable future is grim. I might move a chunk of my SPY money into IBIT.

GenXDad507

I guess. One day isn't a trend though. Just look at the past 5 days and SPY / BTC charts are still heavily correlated.

RockmSockmHobo

I'm pointing out that the volatility of btc in regards to the movement of SP500 is decreasing. The past few econ shocks had SPY down 2% and BTC would drop 4% in kind. The pattern indicates that btc could increasingly be becoming a hedge against economic recession like gold. In regards to Liberation Day, the market chose BTC over SP500

GenXDad507

SPY down 8.06%, BTC down 11.15% this past month hmm

RockmSockmHobo

SPY down 4.97%, BTC down 0.01% today hmm

unpleasant_wrecker

Yes, "and this time it's different" "If you're scared to invest, just put your money in SPY" These old chestnuts no longer apply

IcyDragonFire

Not holding as well as SPY.    Not to mention gold, the actual thing, is +0.71%.

Capable-Commission-3

This is the first test to see if bitcoin can ever fluctuate independent of the stock market, like gold. Previously, it hasn’t. But so far it’s down 5.8% this week while SPY is only down 4% and gold is only down .8%. So I wouldn’t hold my breath or say it’s necessarily holding well.

Brilliant-Elk2404

SPY is like 200 % up in the last 7 years. You guys are stupid it hurts.

biba8163

> comparing their loss from ATH is bad data to prove your point. Coping Shitcoiners like you like to use copium math by cherry picking a time when an asset -95% to the lowest value to show it performs great. **Investors that make money like to hold assets that consistently appreciate over the long term so we look at ATHs.** - Comparing 2017/18 ATHs of BTC and ETH over a ~7 year time period which is a good reference point because the S&P 500 doubles every 7 years providing an annual return of ~10%. - BTC outperforms S&P 500 and Gold - ETH is absolute dogshit performance with 3.24% annualized return lagging even U.S Treasuries - Scams like ADA, XRP actually result in losses over long time horizons **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 22.19% | QQQ | 16% | GOLD | 11.3% | SPY | 10.8% | ETH | 4% | ADA | -7.5% | XRP | -8.24%

ThisBuddhistLovesYou

Honestly at this point it’s BRK.B, with the current fuckery it’s destroying commonly held wisdom like SPY and sit on it.

welcome_to_urf

I bought 10k worth of SPY 5 years ago, and now it's worth $18k plus dividends...

Willstdusheide23

Finally someone who knows economics. Too many people here are delusional because they only think about making money here, not using their senses to make investments for their future. The markets are going to remain low when it's being manipulated by economic policies such as tariffs to push more people out, and for other delusional economic interests. Our President thinks he can bully his way into making countries buy our stuff when they and ourselves rely on China. The markets including crypto do not respond well with uncertainty, people who keep saying the Crypto market shouldn't be affected are delusional or naive. Everything is connected within the market, if SPY is down, best bet most of the time means Bitcoin is down too.

forthetorino

Oh look BTC LTC and SPY chart identical. Is this what you wanted? IS IT???

BitcoinBaller420

So many still don't get it. The world has just entered an economic war. People are worried, and in their asset sales, they are proving to the world what they value and what they don't. It's easy to go on a message board and say "I love bitcoin", it's hard to actually hold it when you're afraid everyone else might sell, or you're worried your job might be at risk. Those are the times when bitcoin displays its progress towards top dog #1 global reserve asset. The thing people BUY when they are scared and want SAFETY. Look at this bitcoin move. SPY is down 3.5% after hours, this is a macro move over major world events. Bitcoin is down maybe 5% in this time, and that's after a nice rally beforehand. Now think back a couple cycles. Big macro move? Probably you're looking at bitcoin down 15% or more. Then it was 10%. Now it's 1.5x. Yes, it's still early, bitcoin is still priced as a levered-risk-on asset by the incremental seller minute-to-minute. But those sellers are running out, and all that's left in their place are the market makers and their trusty models that have been so profitable. You can bet a lot of bitcoin selling in the last few hours are exactly these guys, they say SPY down 1% sell bitcoin until it's down 3x based on correlations. But bitcoin is valuable precisely because these correlations are breaking down over time. You don't even have to have a very long time horizon to see that bitcoin is holding its value better than traditional assets during a time of uncertainty. That drives adoption. I'm not a Saylor fan-boy, but he's right about at least one thing: The models are broken!

HesitantInvestor0

This is a guy whose advice centers around finding "cheap" assets without considering growth, debt obligations, trends, regulation, geopolitical risk, etc. He almost universally advocates for buying dying companies that are losing market share. Anyone listening to him for investment advice over the last ten years has underperformed gold, QQQ, SPY, VTI (really any broad market ETF) as well as of course Bitcoin. He's a total idiot and collects money from those who are even bigger idiots.

IcyDragonFire

> Checks BTC and SPY/VTI prices for the past 4 years.   Yeah, it's not pretty, and it's only gonna get worse.   Moreover, with so much volatility and risk for BTC, investors expect higher returns, which no longer exist.

Glum-Wealth-6171

Wow BTC is surprisingly strong this morning. Did it finally break from SPY? Could be back to 87k in a few hours at this point.

AssistancePretend668

Thanks - this is really thorough and I appreciate it! Leaning towards IBIT currently as I'm going to put some into SPY as well and add to that over time too. Keep it all in one place.

Rando1ph

Yes, I can't argue with that. I'm 75%BTC, then another 15% SPY. The rest is meme coins and stocks, with the majority of that in DOGE and Wendy's. But I'm going to keep my $2 a month into all the alt coins, just to feel it out. I'm probably at least even on all of them now, I've been doing it a while. And I bought back into BTC in Feb 2023, so yes, that is exactly what I'm doing. But with these huge price drops in the meme coins, I can't help but to feel like there is some money to be made right now.

Glum-Wealth-6171

Crypto finally decoupling from SPY. Bears pulling their hair out trying to figure out what went wrong lol

2_The_Moon_And_Back

SPY already down 1% in premarket, a lot of blood will be spilled today and tomorrow ehh?

Cloudbase_academy

That was nothing compared to the covid dump. SPY was minus 12% on a single daily candle on the worst day

jwz9904

SPY down nearly 1% pre-market. Someone is definitely winning.

biba8163

> Ethereum is dead, until it's not *ETH is not dead but like all 2-Cycle Shitcoins, it's shitting the bed* - There are ZERO Alts today that are above ATHs they reached in previous cycles. - There are ZERO Alts have reached new ATHs in 2024/25 when adjusted for inflation. - There are ZERO Alts have hit ATHs in 3 cycles when adjusted for inflation. *ETH is not dead but it's a 2-Cycle Shitcoin that will put you in the red* ETH is an underperforming/non-performing asset mid/long term. If dummies want to make LESS money taking MORE risk, than ETH is an excellent choice. If you want to earn just as much as ETH at ZERO risk, then you can stake FIAT which guarantee ~5% returns. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame with relatively large marketcaps* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 22.19% | QQQ | 16% | GOLD | 11.3% | SPY | 10.8% | ETH | 4%

Character-Sky-2512

No i dont think any of the other coins makes sense. I personally got lucky with btc, doge and shib. Btc has been the real winner for me. Doge and shib was really just 3x and extreme luck. Those other coins dont do anything. There was a coin called sia where they actually used your machine to host other peoples data as a true cloud storage system. I thought it was such a good idea but it did not really take off and now there are so many file hosting services but sia did something. Btc has proven intrinsic value to me I ran mining rigs, spent btc, got a coinbase btc credit card and still run a node after 12 years. It was a lifestyle. Buying it now for me does not make sense. This week I purchased 200 SPY puts. They are up 160% already. Btc wont do that again. Btc was for the people in the early days, now its for the banks and regulation. Whatever becomes Bitcoin2 thats what i would buy. I dont know what it is though. That being said if you pick the right altcoin on the right day you could make a lot of money. I am gambling with 1200TH and solo mining. It costs about 24$ a day in electricity but solving a block would be worth it.

SUPAH_ACE

As for vocabulary words and what they mean, investopedia is a great resource. YouTube is another great resource for general information as well. Just be careful on YouTube as learning all kinds of different things can actually hinder your progress as a trader. Too much information, especially information retaining to different things in the market can be bad and confusing. Start with a general topic and research subjects within that topic. Also every YouTuber can put out good or bad information. It’s up to you to decide what to do with that information. For example. Swing trading. Look at how to swing trade and how it works. Then how are you going to swing trade? Whether that will be buying stock shares, option contracts, or futures or forex. Then, what are you going to trade? Is that SPY, Apple, NVDA, or TSLA? Then ask yourself how are you going to do it? What is your strategy to swing trade that stock? The last question is most likely the hardest thing to do. A strategy brings everything you’ve learned onto the charts. Learning and practicing a strategy you will use to trade live will make it or break it. You can come up with your own or use someone else’s. Not every strategy will work. It’s different for each trader. 100% win rates is nearly impossible. Also, read up or research on risk management and emotions during trading. Those two factors are some of the biggest factors people forget. Risk management is important so you don’t loose all your money in one trade. Emotions are important as they can lead you to revenge trade or oversize your position. One more thing, use trading view to look at charts and do technical analysis. Stocks react to technical analysis 90% of the times. This includes trends and key levels. Very similar, if not the same as DEX screener and works in the same way, just better features.

SUPAH_ACE

On average, I was doing around $50-$200 weekly. I had a small account ($200) and only bought SPY 0dtes. I recently been swing trading and it’s working a lot better for me. Swing trading stock options yielded me around $200-$500 weekly, again with a small account (~$1000). However, I mixed up my strategies with day trading and swing trading and lost a few trades. Currently taking a break and just paper trading for now.

2_The_Moon_And_Back

SPY keeps drilling in AH too damn.

burtritto

Crazy how SPY and Bitcoin are so correlated. I thought Bitcoin was a hedge against that...

avance70

that could be why the coming recession will be so bad... people look at the usa SPY index, and everyone expects it to continue going up in pretty much a straight line, like it's been going up from roughly 1942

biba8163

This is you regurgitating Shitcoin and mETH Head narratives: > Remember, late December, early Jan is when ETH and alts start climbing. https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1hhfmsi/daily_crypto_discussion_december_19_2024_gmt0/m2rdoto/ > Not really, ETH has always been a slow grower. It’s typically dumped until late Jan every cycle and has been red for almost every single December from 2016. https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1i00w01/daily_crypto_discussion_january_13_2025_gmt0/m6wgoac/ This is me warning noobs and mETH Heads, that's not what's happening: > Noobs who weren't around in 2016 and 2020, you should know that 2024 looks very very different so far than at this time frame in 2016 and 2020. (Nov. 5, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gkfvzs/bitcoin_price_crushing_altcoins_heading_into_us/lvlrry1/ > The market is changing: ETFs, MSTR, etc account for a lot of the inflows. This money is not going to leave BTC seeking greater return on Alts (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwymxl9/ > Each cycle is a bit different. Too many people are saying, just hold on to your coins, it's playing out exactly the same. (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gqexix/why_are_there_so_few_active_users_when_btc_is_at/lwxx36a/ > Be careful of people telling you this cycle is playing out exactly the same. ETFs, institutional and mainstream involvement, memecoins, L2 options and ETH competitors, it's very different (Nov. 19, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gujmk1/daily_crypto_discussion_november_19_2024_gmt0/lxyt5pw/ Are people like you are really clueless looking at the data right in front of your eyes and still think the pattern is repeating: | ETH | Dec | Jan | Feb | March |:-----------|:------------:|:------------:|:------------:|:------------:| | 2020/21 | 20%| 78% | 7% | 35% | 2024/25 | -10%| -1% | -32% | -14% And I've warned noobs like you again and again, ETH is a Shitcoin Alt and it is waay overvalued: > Long term ALL Alts follow the same trend and fall below the initial BTC value they started at. Pretty much all the older Alts, even the most successful fall below this value. ETH is also trending long term to fall below this value. People talk about historic trends, patterns and cycles but this has been the only 1 undisputed and unbroken pattern for 14 years. https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1fgzm3z/daily_crypto_discussion_september_15_2024_gmt0/ln9gkl4/ | | Initial | High | Current | |:-----------|------------:|:------------:|------------:| | LTC | 0.03 BTC| 0.048 BTC | 0.001 BTC | XRP | 5,594 SATS| 22,500 SATS | 940 SATS | XMR | 0.005 BTC| 0.035 BTC | 0.0029 BTC | ETH | 0.01 BTC | 0.15 BTC | 0.041 BTC ETH is an underperforming/non-performing asset mid/long term. If dummies want to make LESS money taking MORE risk, than ETH is an excellent choice. If you want to earn just as much as ETH at ZERO risk, then you can stake FIAT which guarantee ~5% returns. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 22.19% | QQQ | 16% | GOLD | 11.3% | SPY | 10.8% | ETH | 4%

stockmonkeyking

Will probably get downvoted for this but bitcoin nor gold are best hedges. Best hedges are equities, specifically SPY or an international fund. Even better is a value index fund diversified internationally paying 3-4% in dividends. Inflation goes up, prices of these assets will go up. Doesn't fluctuate as much as bitcoin either. Has revenue and profits backing the assets. If inflation rises, these companies in the funds increase their prices which ultimately raises the asset prices. Safe, surefire, hedge against inflation will be basket of equity, gold, bonds, real estate, and commodities, all internationally diversified. You're not going to see 7000% spikes like btc but you can sleep knowing it also won't crash and is actually backed by revenue being generated. As much as everyone likes to parade btc, its still considered speculative. I'm not saying don't hold BTC, I'm saying be realistic and go ball deep into it thinking its the only surefire hedge. Another coin can get propped up tomorrow with better tech and marketing or something, major country adopts it, now everyone flocks to that and you're left bag holding btc. Also keep in mind, during recessions, people pull money out of their most speculative and risky investments first. That includes bitcoin, not their portfolio that has target funds and bonds.

Opposite-Car2809

This'll repeat till SPY back to 611, BTC stands on 100000 again.

redfishbluesquid

A good general rule in life is to not take advice/criticism from someone you don't look up to. If I had a penny everytime someone who didn't even know basic financial market knowledge (like wtf SPY is and how to buy it) said something about bitcoin, I could buy a small country.

No-Broccoli2402

Any broad diversified etf should be fine. I happen to prefer SPY and BRK.B as my choices.

No-Broccoli2402

Never put all your eggs in one basket. My advice is put 2/3 in your Roth and invest 1/3 in bitcoin. In your Roth I would invest in SPY and BRK.B and if you want more exposure to bitcoin you can invest in IBIT. Robinhood Gold has 3% match on Roth IRA so a little extra bonus. You’re young so if you want to be more adventurous with your money you can adjust the numbers to 50/50 if you want. But you want to be adding to that Roth and getting the tax benefits as much as you can.

Aerion_CA

Algos following SPY