SPY

JerseyGemsTC

Sure, but then you seem to be leaving a ton of opportunity cost on the table. If I held for the last 5 years I’d be underperforming SPY over the same period.

aimhigh7shootlow8

ETH is in Wave 4 macro / Wave 5 micro — the final flush before the macro Wave 5 setup. This fits your playbook perfectly: accumulation zone, not entry yet. Wait for the short-term bearish Wave 5 to complete ($1,545–$1,798 zone), confirm reversal structure, then size in for the macro Wave 5 launch. Your SPY Wave 2 correction trigger lines up directly with ETH bottoming in this zone. $1,384 is the deeper macro invalidation — below that, key price levels at $883 and $356 become relevant for eliminating bullish wave count scenarios entirely.

Kitchen_Net_GME

I’m just not sure. I still have vivid memories of October 2022. SPY was crashing. Bitcoin falling. Tons of people kept calling for further drops. Everyone had a chart suggesting further drops were incoming. People referenced historical trends and how it would play out again. This feels like that. I think we bobble in the range of 53-65K for awhile. And there has already been a lot of consolidation in this range in 2024.

G_Felix

Over the last six years, SPY has grown 160% (includes dividends). Bitcoin has grown by 500% over that same period. Watch that gap grow!

Lord_Gudda

It's a bear market. I've tried to look for correlation to other assets. Closest i've seen has been SPY but after the AI hype that one is dead too.

PrestondeTipp

If you're heavy in BTC you're down 25% in a month and 31% year to date. The risk free T-bill rate is 3.839%  SPY is up 8.45% Inflation alone will land somewhere between 2.7-3%

No-Contribution1070

How was he right? Equities are all time highs. Bro went all cash at the end of 2024... SPY is up lile 30% since... What's an extra 30% of $350 billion? Thats how much money he has since lost out on. Probably more, i just used SPY as an example.

OwnConflict5118

I believe in bitcoin as money. Not store of value. But, I will say this is nonsense. You cannot even compare two index funds over the course of two years. I bet you would be unwilling to compare 15 years of history. SPY can easily lose 30% in a year. SPY lost 36% in 2008. And, a multi year losing streak at the begining of the century. -10.58% in 2000, -12.3% 2001, -22.14% 2002. If you invested in 2000 you will still have an average annualized return of 8.19% today. But, if you take those 3 years it is a trash investment.

AutoModerator

Post is by: vac2672 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1twn12g/attention_young_grasshoppers/ I really feel for all these obviously young wannabe superstar traders losing their shirts in these markets. Real facts here... you ain't gonna make a living day trading, esp. crypto (unless you happen to have been very lucky and bought years ago, but chances are you sold it.) I have been buying BTC since it was $300, unfortunately selling along the way as well. Anyway take this advice young bucks, because it is pure gold...if you have the discipline you will thank me in years to come, if you don't, and you continue to pretend using terms like 'support', 'breakout', 'test' when it comes to btc you will pay dearly... btc is worthless, just face it, you are here to trade and make money, not because you're waiting for the financial system to collapse... it ain't gonna so get on w your life. I have done technical analysis professionally on wall street for years using custom software built for portfolio analysis, so take my advice or don't, i really don't care... Here is how you get rich: If you're in you late teens, 20's, even early 30's not too late... simply put 85% of what you can save each month in stocks (i'll explain how), and 15% (10% btc, 5% your fav worthless alt coin). This is IN ADDITION to maxxing out your 401k and/or ira's. That is priority #1 **Of your 85% Stocks breakdown as: 40% QQQ, 20% SPY, 40% Top Tech (Faang or Mag 7, etc)** Now you assign your dollar amount to that... whether it is $100 a month or $1k and do your portfolio purchases. Now here's the rule: DON'T EVER SELL ANYTHING. I didn't sell through the dot com bust, i didn't sell through '08, and now I am rich by most standards. The freedom you will gain is beautiful.. stop trying to time btc because it has no timing, it is a trading vehicle, that's it, treat it that way... it ain't your lifeblood.. I still to this day don't PERSONALLY know a single person who has used btc to purchase anything. You use it to make money, stop being a fanboy. You can believe me, don't believe me, downvote me, whatever.. i'm giving you free advice, i've done it all, i was the wannabe daytrader, i built automated blackbox trading models, etc.. i've watched top PhD's try to beat the market...it all fails. The only thing I have seen work is the above. Anything else is timing and a little luck. Oh, and you're welcome *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Flexerrr

Funny how I got upvoted, yet any ETH holders in past 5 years have no profit and lost to SPY lol

Leather-Ad-1253

Wash sale wouldn't apply to BTC on exchange or peer to peer. Wash sale would apply to paper bitcoin such as an ETF product. Spot BTC from exchange is treated as a commodity and you can buy and sell and buy within the same day. No wash sale. Paper BTC in an ETF such as FBTC/MSBT/IBIT, treated as a security and subject to wash sale rules. Now...can you sell IBIT and buy FBTC much like some do with SPY/VOO? Maybe...

Original-Read-6475

Nothing to do with cope. If you believe that SPY at it's current ATH is a better investment like OP seems to imply, then by all means go invest. The smart people invested in SPY while BTC was at ATH and no one talked about SPY

Original-Read-6475

Typical bear market sentiment. Go chase the green candles then and put your money on SPY while it's at ATH and euphoria phase. I'm sure it will work out just as great as for those who bought into the gold euphoria in late January.

Zestyclose-Power-132

This is exactly what i think, but now litterally it feels like SPY is more of an actual storage for value rather than BTC. I am just sad?

pattywhaxk

1. Bitcoins promise is zero monetary inflation. That doesn’t mean it will maintain its value against any currency, equity or commodity in the short run. 2. Bitcoiners generally aren’t concerned with short term price action. They’re either in it for the tech, concepts and ideals that underpin the system or for the long term investment opportunity, usually a combination of both. I’m not saying you aren’t one, but I think it’s easy to get caught up in the dollar numbers and forget about everything else that is going on. 3. We are in the bear market. We were at ATH less than 9 months ago. This happens every 4 years, and we are exactly where we are supposed to be. A new ATH is made after the halving, and then around the 2 year mark BTC crabs around the previous cycle ATH, which is exactly where we are at. 3a. To further prove my point about the cycle, in every 2nd year post halving, SPY outperforms BTC. 2014, 2018 and 2022. I suspect that 2026 could be the same. In this cycle the timeline was pushed up due to macro factors like the ETF approvals, but the cycle has maintained its general structure.

Shot-Structure-1274

Well, if the stock markets start to enter a bear market after a super massive run up and BTC is already at 65k, then it's possible for a real massive decline from here as ALL risk-on investments are in a bear market. If SPY drops -35% from here, we could see BTC drop -70% from here and trade at 20-25k. Of course, stocks could drop even worse and then BTC could as well. Either way, stocks and BTC are headed lower because BTC drop first and then stocks.

Applecity82

I mean not all of us HOLD when hitting ath. I take profits when we start getting into new ath territory. Right now I’m buying again. When and if it goes back up, I’ll rinse and repeat. Even if I miss some profits and sell too soon, I figure it’s better than watching it go way back up and then all the way back down. I throw profits into SPY

Illustrious-Boss9356

Dude 10-15% is easily lambo land what are you on? The SPY averages like 11%.

whiskeyH0tel

Would you rather get 8% on SPY, slow and boring?

Lord_Gudda

Short time frame no, long time frame yes. I believe it will retrace to this years lows very fast. It is still a bear market and altcoins always perform poorly. Not to mention what will happen to crypto of SPY and the other stocks have a correction or the SpaceX IPO is just a huge dumpfest.

BainTrain55

While SPY will be pushing like 900 or some shit

baIIern

I actually did. Not SPY though, but a world ETF. Sold BTC a bit too early though

HopiumTrump

SCHD, SPY, QQQ, SPYI!! These are some great ETFs!! There will be a time to buy Bitcoin at end of this year!! 4 year cycle is kang!!

HopiumTrump

In 2021, A Centoshi (0.01 BTC) was $600+ while a share of SPY was $440. In 2025, A centoshi was $1100-1250 when SPY was $600. If you think Bitcoin underformored the Stock market, you need to ask yourself why you didn't sell when a Centoshi could have bought you 2 shares of the Spy. From top to top, Bitcoin did not underperform the stock market as a whole.

Lord_Gudda

Stocks don't give a shit what crypto does. But if SPY falls or any of the other AI stocks...BTC will fall and ALTs will collapse.

StrangePhotoSTL

Historically, Alt season comes when smart money is rotating out of btc. It's the mainstream name with first mover advantage as a brand. And 10x is massive. I claimed I have heard btc was dead every year since 06. You said I didn't. Then I posted a historical tracker supporting the opposite of a dead opportunity. You don't have alt season without btc, hence why I stated how many times I've heard it. If you have been in the space long enough, you would have understood that basic concept. It's the opposite of inconsistent, as it follows traditional markets regardless since the same people are in crypto and trads. Just look at it on a chart next to SPY. The personal insults also indicate I upset you somehow and you're speaking with emotions instead of logic.

Lord_Gudda

I think the people that would have pumped altcoins like 2021 have moved on to prediction markets or even SPY.

fin47

SPY has higher expense ratio than VOO, why in the world would he do that?

NormalGuyPosts

Maybe half BTC, half SPY stock market? Or, to be my mother about it, a 2:1 SPY-BTC play? Unless you're doing truly great, $35k isn't the type of money you "forget" about.

Agronopolopogis

Put a large portion into a Roth IRA if you can, and invest it into a stable ETF like SPY, then forget about it. It will grow over your lifetime, and at your age, trust me when I say you will thank yourself. Then in fifty years when you withdraw, because it's in a Roth, no taxes. This obviously assumes any of this infrastructure still exists. Edit. $100k at 10% year over year returns, compounded, is almost $12 million in fifty years.

aimhigh7shootlow8

CORRECTION MAP: ATH: $749.48 Alert 1: $730 (correction confirmed — start deploying) Target 1: $720 (38.2% Fib) Target 2: $699 (50% Fib) ← primary reload zone Deep case: $673 (61.8% GP — unlikely but possible) not a collapse, just a correction! Current ATH: $749.48 (today) W2 correction: $699–720 (4-8 weeks) W3 target: ~$848 (+14% from correction low) The China US news that just broke delays but still inevitable. Possible scenario- Blow-off top (most likely) The tariff deal gives SPY one final W5 extension to $755-765. Smart money distributes INTO the gap-up. The Hindenburg Omen, volume divergence, and hawkish Fed are still underneath. The correction still comes — just from a slightly higher level and maybe 1-2 weeks later. W2 target shifts from $699-720 to maybe $705-725.

frustratedstudent96

Can you expand on SPY?

evilemprzurg

I was wondering why SPY raised so much this morning, because this was going to be announced this afternoon. 🤓

colemusic1

Correct answer. Buying individual tech stocks is already high in volatility, even NDX type tech stocks like: - apple - tesla - amazon - etc and, i really don’t think people quite understand the risks of 100% crypto concentration. the question OP should be asking is: “should i diversify into a mix of QQQ or SPY as well as BTC?” because his question is really more: “should i switch high volatility for even higher volatility?” could honestly diversify across different tech stocks if OP wanted to — as well as BTC. but people have to know the risks. can never go wrong with adding a good portion of anyone’s portfolio with S&P500, or QQQ if you’re happy taking on a bit more volatility but still not just one tech stock

UpbeatFix7299

SPY is the same 5 years back. Retail buys crypto near the top due to fomo.

KamikazKid

Put half my bitcoin into SPY and FIRE.

Crazywar17

The gap is already smaller than people think honestly. I'm running cross-border payment flows for a small fintech and we settle some of our hedges through Bitmex equity perps now (SPY, oil contracts) instead of opening a separate broker account. Tighter spreads on TradFi side still real but for anything under $50k notional the convenience of staying in one collateral pool wins by a lot. Three years ago this would've sounded insane, now its just Tuesday.

colemusic1

don’t watch the charts, blindly DCA into an asset that has had repeated halving cycles that sees -50% corrections. this is something i’ll never quite understand, the idea of “blind buy DCA BTC at any price, anytime” is it wrong? not necessarily, but is it the most optimal way you can build your net worth and realized gains so that you can actually use that liquidity to buy even more BTC? not really either. Blind dca’ing and not watching charts is precisely what SPY or QQQ is for. it takes a global financial crisis to see a -30% to -50% deep correction when broad index ETF’s get hit this hard (COVID being a prime example). But if you can at least reasonably predict cycles such that you’re not trying to time tops or bottoms, you’d be making building your networth significantly faster by not blind DCA’ing even if it’s at parabolic ATH’s

UpbeatFix7299

Nearly 5% of the total supply held by this little conman and it's still in the shitter. Bros should have just bought SPY like sane humans

hawkeye224

Yeah you always get these guys in threads like these. The performatively cautious/sceptical ones, where if they really believe in their "cautious" scenarios then there's no point stacking BTC lol. Like "yeah maybe we'll reach $1M in 25 years" where it underperforms SPY.

Reddshockk

This take reminds me of last june when NVDA had that earnings beat after the bell on a thursday. Watched the after-hours print do most of the move and figured I was stuck waiting for monday like usual. Then remembered bitmex actually has equity perps these days, opened the app, scaled into a long over the next hour. Caught maybe 60% of what wouldve been priced in by monday open. Wouldnt have thought of it at all if I hadnt been forced into trying their SPY contracts a few weeks earlier just to test the rails

matthegc

It will be part of everyone’s “financial advisor portfolio” like exposure to SPY or other index funds

dataCollector42069

Wait till you look at the SPY and QQQ Or stocks like AMD, Intel, Amzn in the last couple months

PassiveBotAI

Built a bot specifically to trade these regimes. Can confirm — the day Trump posted the ceasefire extension our F&G jumped 8 points overnight. No technical setup, no halving math, just a tweet. The halving is now background radiation. Geopolitics is the actual weather. The painful irony is the institutions that were supposed to legitimise crypto are the exact reason it now trades like leveraged SPY. BlackRock doesn't care about Satoshi's vision. They care about their risk models. You invited them in and now they're running the vibe. Your borrow-not-sell strategy is underrated btw. Selling into fear and watching it rip is genuinely one of the worst feelings in this space. 🎯

PassiveBotAI

Been building one for 6 months. Here's what nobody told me: **The coding is the easy part.** AI solved that. The hard part is everything after — data quality, regime detection, knowing when NOT to trade. **Most "edge" is fake diversification.** I ran 29 strategies through 20 years of data this week. Strategies that looked independent were all just long SPY in disguise. They all lose together in a crash. Real diversification is harder to find than it looks. **Your bot will do exactly what you told it to, not what you meant.** I had 6 bugs running silently for months. One meant my LLM consensus was never actually reaching 2/3 agreement — it was just echoing the first model's answer. Zero trades fired for weeks because of one parsing error. **The gates matter more than the signals.** Same strategy: 70%+ win rate in fear regimes, losing money in greed. The signal didn't change. The regime did. Most people optimise signals endlessly and never touch their filters. **Why isn't the world adopting it rapidly?** It is — institutional algo trading is 70%+ of volume now. The retail version is hard because you're fighting people with better data, lower latency, and more capital. The only edge retail has is patience and niche strategies the big players ignore because they're too small capacity. Still worth building. Just go in with eyes open. 🎯

Ok-Name1312

SPY needs more liquidity to surpass 9k.  Holding out for a massive dip buying opportunity.

Pal3-Assignment

SPY is up over 70% in five years BTC is only up 38% in that same time

burusai

Yeah. It really comes down to when the strait is opened again. Oil prices are irrational right now. Supply is drying up quickly. But for some reason the fallout doesn’t seem priced in. SPY setting new ATH in the middle of chaos.

colemusic1

i gotta say, i’ve never quite understood the idea either btc — even as the deepest liquidity crypto asset as being merely just a blind dca every month regardless of price. by all means, absolutely do you. i think that’s great if it’s something you’re trying to reach, but unlike etf’s where entries are almost irrelevant if you’re dca’ing at a fixed amount monthly — btc is still extremely volatile, constantly moving in cycles. i never quite understood the idea of buying it at any given price. people will often find their actual genuine avg buying cost basis will be significantly lower if they’re buying and selling at the right times during cycles. but again that’s not financial advice — i just feel like it makes more sense to treat it like it is, a crypto asset, rather than an ETF such as SPY where dca’ing regardless of price really does work in the long term thanks to multi-year compounding and predictable growth

WDTBB

SPY

4xtraderr

Okay that’s good bitcoin is still trash invest in SPY better bang

4xtraderr

Invest into SPY better bang for your bucks Bitcoin is trash I wouldn’t even invest into Bitcoin unless it’s below $30k

callebbb

What are you talking about. You can cherry pick dates all you want, but I’ll cherry pick some. March 2020 it went to $3.5k a coin. March of 2025 (5 years) it’s in the 80s. It went to a high not more than a year later (2021) in the 60s. All time high of 120k. Since lows of 2020 you’ve got a 35x gain. +3500% S&P 500 (SPY) did well cherry picking too. A low of 282, recovered a year later to ~400. Low of 2020 to ATH of 709, a modest 1.85x increase. 185% gain from trough to peak. 🤷. Seems like Bitcoin did better. But sure, I’m sure you have a date range that makes me look bad and your altcoins look incredible.

oki_sauce

Use a ETF overlap cause you have a good amount of overlap in these ETFS. Im assuming youre young and thst means you can take risk. Crypto is bad. Btc is good. The further you go down the line, the riskier and/or more volatile you get. Look into international etfs like VXUS too. Also, just because you have overlap doesnt mean you need to sell them, just start reinvesting your dividends into something else. schb also has higher expense ratio, so you are paying more. Nobody suggests buying SPY for example because the expense ratio is high. You can find something that measures the same fund but at lower expense like SPYM

sarcastic_bastard

The only answer is ETFs and more specifically SPY and VTI. Stocks require knowledge and experience and crypto is, well, gambling.

hewhosleepsnot

Diversification. I’m nearly all in stocks as, despite recent upturns due to oil, I am not a USD bull and hate holding cash. I have 1-2% in crypto (BTC ETH SOL primarily) 1-2% in physical items (Lego gold collectibles), rest stocks and ETFs with a half year of savings in a HYSA. Tech stocks beaten down right now so if not think AI going to replace them all then I like GOoG, msft, NVDA, meta. Bit late to try and get in on oil and tankers unless think Iran going to escalate or continue for longer and no TACO tonight. IAU for more exposure to gold tha you don’t have to hold and protect. Look for something with reasonable valuation and long term uptrends. ETFs are always great as can set and forget. VXUS, SPY, emerging market ETFs etc.

ItsPickles

It’s not a bad idea. Diversifying just dilutes your exposure to risk. Might as well just invest in SPY and call it a day. Diversifying makes no sense if you are trying to beat the market. If you aren’t trying to beat the market, then just invest in an index fund.

ScholarPrize1335

Yea it's absolutely crushed SPY and gold over that 5 year time frame 😜

Excellent_Load9336

since 2021, Altcoins havent recovered 2022 bear market. BTC made highs and dropped, QQQs and SPY near ATH, gold and silver hit moon... where are we going? will altcoins ever recover? What can cause it to outperform rest of market? will it atleast recover?

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GonnaGetHop-Ons

It is an oversimplification but this asset has built what I consider a pretty reasonable track record at this point. I think any dollar invested in BTC right now is PRETTY likely to return 300% within 3 years. If BTC doesn’t hit over $180K in the next few years then something is broken and I’ll eat crow. Anyone who has taken some lumps on this pullback could realize those losses and pivot into VTI, VOO or SPY or something and hope for what? 3 years of 30%/year growth on the craziest of timelines? All that said, I still max my Roth and put some into my 401K (no company match). But the rest is piling in right now. We may go touch $40K and I’ll DCA all the way down but selling right now unless you can’t make the mortgage payment seems…inadvisable.

TtradesTOwin

If you regularly buy quality assets (regardless of short term price fluctuations), you will likely build significant wealth. This hold true for stock indices (I buy SPY and VOO), physical gold, and especially BTC. Happy buying all! I am buying every day at these prices!

LegendaryJohnny

I read here few times that SPY is here and there - why do you panic. Yeah, it LOOKS good as soon as hold in USD which is around 10% weaker against other big currencies. If you hold im EUR or GBP, its not really reason to party and its down since Trump took over. But cool, divident coming. It will cover about 5% of my Q1 loss.

docherino

SPY has outperformed BTC over the past 5Y

MissingInAnarchy

People seem to forget that the current administration wants BTC in peoples 401k’s. When that starts happening, and the auto -funds from peoples paychecks stat going to BTC and not the SPY, then i don’t know how it doesn’t go up. 

eyeseepoop

If say I own an amount of BTC to fiat in real world cases, not Tether. Should I worry so much about Tether going away? Especially with the on going push for actual markets to be to tokenized, where is Tether’s position in that? If I can then spend some BTC straight to buy SPY, wouldn’t that be so much more efficient?

Jason_DeHoulo

1. I see I though you meant 6 months red in a red which is untrue. 2. 6 months sideways trading is nothing. Your stat is hilariously cherry picked. Zoom out to 1 year ago and it's still up 10% after this dip 3. Even if you want to keep that 6 month timeframe, SPY has still hilariously outperformed BTC

Erocdotusa

6 months red on SPY now actually

Proinsias37

Was about to say exactly this. He isn't wrong. It's very much a 'the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'. I have been itching to go all on on puts for months (and I may have waited to long' but SPY where it is makes zero fucking sense. P/E ratios make zero fucking sense. Financial news is bad, and will worsen. There's a war disrupting supply chains and the price of oil, and in STILL not confident that it will drop. It's fairy dust.

Desperate_Jacket_876

it can, but generally speaking when an asset is in a bear market it tends to follow the general market trend and amplify it to the downside. Its interesting that with SPY drilling and the general market panic we are experiencing lately, BTC continues to outperform and refuses to make even a new marginal low. In fact, we are very far removed from 60k now. Anyway, nothing is guaranteed so time will tell.

asacho

yeah and bitcoin is 660.000% up vs 443% from SPY since 2011, decoupling defined

KingPettyx

Bitcoin is down .07% and SPY is down .31%. Define decoupling

Revenantjuggernaut

Going to have to educate myself more. But I got SPY,QQQ,BTC,VIX UUP,DGX,USO,XLE up on a market tracker and I look at them and try to pretend I know how to read it 😂

Thankyouclouds

I told you it was regarded. Hard to say shit when you’re down over half (and we’d like to retire sooner than later) vs partner who is way up with SPY. So yes, of course I want BTC to moon. I want it to moon hard because anyone that deserves the next moon is already all-in on this.

Thankyouclouds

Yes this is exactly why. I know it sounds regarded but some of us have partners that are absolutely terrified of this crash and are applying unnecessary stress to us and pressure to sell. You don’t get any of that when BTC is 120k. And no, not gonna leave my partner or sell but I know BTC will go up again so this stress is just SO unnecessary. I also understand the concern because my retirement & Roth account (all IBIT) is sliced in half while partner’s half is sitting pretty in SPY.

bitusher

**Statistically Lump Sum investing will outperform DCA investing.** DCA is usually the best advice for those that don't have the capital upfront. For investing in any assets = realty, stocks, bitcoin, or gold the best advice is to make a solid plan after doing your research up front, diversify with uncorrelated asset classes that are properly hedged and invest all up front. This is especially true with Bitcoin because no one can predict the price and most appreciation happens on a few days each year that are unexpected so the quicker you own BTC , the quicker you get exposure to this appreciation. This being said you should not be investing at all in Bitcoin unless you have paid off all your high interest debt and have at least 3-6 months of fiat in an emergency fund to cover living expenses. Lump sum investing outperformed DCA investing 68% of the time according to a Vanguard study - https://static.twentyoverten.com/5980d16bbfb1c93238ad9c24/rJpQmY8o7/Dollar-Cost-Averaging-Just-Means-Taking-Risk-Later-Vanguard.pdf and 75% of the time according to this study: https://www.northwesternmutual.com/life-and-money/is-dollar-cost-averaging-better-than-lump-sum-investing/ 2 reasons - 1) stocks (I suggest an index funds like SPDR/SPY or QQQ ) and BTC have an inherent upwards bias so the sooner you invest the quicker you can accumulate appreciation 2) Inflation drag - fiat uninvested will be slowly losing value due to inflation In bitcoin its higher than 75% of the time and if you doubt me go ahead and pick 10 random dates in the last 15 years and test it for yourself

kwijibokwijibo

You're painting the market with a massive brush, not understanding the niche role that HFT plays, and how it doesn't determine larger momentum price movements Even the hedge funds frontrunning order flow don't determine where SPY will be the next day, for example

canmountains

Oil is going to blast up, crypto and SPY are going to have another red day Monday. Oil might be 100+ a barrel on Monday

Desperate_Jacket_876

we are just dumping with the general market, I hope you dont expect BTC to be up when SPY is down 1.5%.

Ryytter

That's a really good and thoughtful question. I was considering it but decided not to for a few different reasons. I am however a bit unsure what you mean by comparing to the SPY 🤔 1. Why not use STRC instead of SPY? SPY is as much about diversification as it is about returns for me. STRC is a in my opinion a good product but it isn't exactly diversified from MSTR's financial situation 🤔 2. Why not park cash in STRC while waiting to get into BTC. This looked attractive to me on the surface, but after doing the math it looks a bit meh. Not to any fault of STRC. Just fees man 🤷 My time frame to get the rest into Bitcoin is still September-October. So let's say 7 months. That's the time frame I would hold STRC. So we gonna get roughly 7% return in that time frame which is good. But this is assuming I buy in full and sell out in full. That's 7% return. But that's probably not what's gonna happen. I'd probably buy in full and sell out over 6-7 months. So that brings return down from 7% to maybe 4% ? 🤷 And then you have big fees, slippage, spread to account for. Especially at my brokerage I have to use due to taxes. Its quickly 0,5-1% per side. So then we have 3-3,5% 🤷 Add in any depeg from par and just the hastle of it 🤔 It's not that attractive to me 🤷 But it's mainly a time frame problem more so than a problem with STRC 😆 I hope that answers your question

EarningsPal

Crazy how $9M wasn’t enough. $1 Million into Stablecoins for interest $1 million into Gold $1 Million into BTC $1 Million into ETH $1 million SPY $1 Million into QQQ $1 Million into those new startup secondary markets that you need $1 Million to invest $1 million into 2 x $500,000 condos (one in a city where you want to spend 6mo, second one in another country where you can’t get another passport and go stay there when the main city gets cold) Leaves $1 Million to keep playing dangerous games.

Denpants

7M loss is pain, but he's still up 2100%. If I were him I'd take half, dump a milli into SPY, then keep gambling

Ryytter

Bought 40% of what I want here. Happy to buy the remaining 60% in the band of 40-60k per coin. If I don't get full exposure that's fine with me 🤷 Rest can go in SPY 😆

Ryytter

You can copy my approach if you like. I bought 40% of what I want at current prices roughly. 66-68k. A coin. Then I'm looking to at the ret incrementally. 60, 55, 50, 45, 40. If we don't get those prices it's just going in come September/Oktober at whatever prices are at that time. Or it can also just be dumped into SPY. 40% Is still decent exposure and much more than most people want in Bitcoin in the first place 😆

External_Anteater730

Looks like massive copium to me, gold/silver is pretty decorrelated from BTC movement over the past 3 months (and throughout the lifetime of BTC, which follows SPY much more as a speculative asset). Seems to me like the remnants of the BTC recovery are due to either the banks priming exit liquidity or retail buying back in with the expectation of a quick Iran war, but it's not going to hold long term if SPY keeps SPYing down

Ryytter

Already took it. Bought 40% of what I want here. If it drops more I buy more. Otherwise I will just dumb the remaining 60% in SPY and call it a day 🤷 Seems a win/win to me

Commercial_Ad_9864

Considering my girl also buys BTC and SPY. i think well be ight

Fluffy_Goal_6240

You got 800k? Buy 2 bitcoin. Sell 10 long SPY puts at $620. Guaranteed money as long as you don't panic sell. Keep the rest of your $ in VOO and chill. Jesus, man, with 800k. If you play your cards right, you can be at 2mil in no time and then just live a decent life from a high dividends or you can even work a solid deal with the right bank. Just have a lawyer check everything for you. The right bank should get you a 7-7.5% return per year just for putting your $ in there. They'll even buy you a nice ride as a thank you gift.

Several_Region_3710

Fair point — gold has had a great run. My framework does incorporate cross-asset signals (DXY, gold, SPY) as context for crypto positioning. Different thesis though: I'm not trying to pick the best asset class, I'm trying to generate alpha within crypto using on-chain + macro signals

phaskellhall

As someone only holding ETH, I don’t think it’s even that smart of a move. In two years it’s down 30% while BTC is up 30%. Zoom out 5 years and Eth is up 9% vs Bitcoin’s 24%. SPY is up 74% for 5. Crypto def seems to be slowing down

Desperate_Jacket_876

Could be but you know how its been lately, good and bad news get sold off hard. Sentiment is so terrible here and I stand by my call that either Bitcoin will start going back up to catch up with the SPY or that the SPY will start to lose ground and join BTC to the downside.

Dazzling_Marzipan474

I did a very rough analysis using AI Here are the numbers for SPY investment over 20 years showing regular and including a 36% scam tax. S&P 500 total return (20 yrs): 434.1% S&P 500 CAGR (20 yrs): 8.73% With 36% annual tax on unrealized gains (losses offset): Total return (20 yrs): ~123% CAGR (20 yrs): ~4.1% $1 grows to (no annual tax): $5.34 $1 grows to (36% annual tax): ~$2.23 So in 20 years you barely double your money Also in 20 years of 2.5% inflation is ~64%. Inflation adjusted after scam tax your $1 investment is now worth $1.43 This is after 20 fucking years! I posted this in the Bitcoin sub too

GPThought

24 with 70k saved up? youre already ahead of most people your age so dont blow that advantage by going all in on one asset. heres what i would do — and this is what i actually did in a similar situation a few years back: put 30-40% into btc, maybe 10-15% into eth, and keep the rest in broad market index funds (SPY/VOO). rebalance once a quarter. boring but it works. the people telling you to yolo everything into btc are the same people who wont be around when it drops 40% in a month and you cant sleep at night. position sizing matters way more than entry price when you have a 30+ year time horizon. you want exposure to the upside without it ruining your life on the downside

TaoZenQi369

My average is around 84, because at the time my entry was at the major support level. I should have a stop order, so now the 84 become the major resistance level. Right now BTC can barely can surpass the current 72k, the next resistance is 76k. I am hoping I can get out around 83k for small lost. Crypto is not for the faint of heart. I should have just stick with SPY, QQQ and IWM, or even APPLE.

bishop42O

Better off buying VOO or SPY.

HSuke

Everyone who started DCA'ing around the time she made news headlines in 2020-2021 until now would be far better off investing in SPY/QQQ than ARKK.

Sleepycoiner

Spy 2021-2026 is an 82% gain from jan to jan lol.. and its in SPY, not something volatile like btc broski..

Simke11

And this is why DCA is dumb strategy when it comes to crypto. You aren't buying SPY but an extremely volatile asset. Buy on big corrections, don't just blindly throw money regardless of the price.

Sleepycoiner

60-70% return in 5 years, why not just buy SPY at that point? Not to mention the fact btc gains drastically slow down every cycle. Next cycle top won't even break 300k. No one is retiring at 40 buying this anymore. Plz wake up

Skepsis93

I'm seeing the stock has 68% institutional ownership. Which is about average IMO. NVDA has 67% institutional ownership and SPY etf has 53% for reference. Some stocks in my portfolio have as much as 85-90% institutional ownership. Obviously 68% is enough to cause big moves, but compared to the rest of the market, retail appears to have a healthy level of participation in COIN.