SPY

azdcaz

Ah so 2-3 more years, and then possibly diminishing returns if trends hold. So we might match the SPY.

azdcaz

Yeah when you can do significantly better holding SPY (or fucking t-bills for that matter) then BTC loses its luster.

ProudPeak3570

even a 5% drawdown on SPY will be brutal for crypto

KlearCat

> But are you sure that they can't do that with the ETFs or similar? > > You can look up the ETF guidelines and see for yourself. Do you worry that when you buy an ETF like VOO or SPY that the ETF provider is not actually holding the assets they claim?

ProudPeak3570

SPY at aTH. We are so fucked if it has a drawdown

banditcleaner2

You're not spending bitcoin on real purchases, so claiming you can exit the government inflating the dollar by buying bitcoin is silly. You could make the exact same argument by telling me that I can avoid government inflation by buying SPY or other stocks. That doesn't make those stocks a currency. And at least when I own stocks of real companies I have part ownership in a company that actually produces a real product/service. What does bitcoin produce? It doesn't produce anything.

Initial-Finding-9285

If you bought the low on the SPY this year you'd be up over 35%

MetalEnthusiast83

If you’d put $100 into SPY on Jan 25, 2025, you’d have about $113 now — 13% gain. If you’d put the same $100 into Bitcoin at that time, you’d have about $83 —17% loss.

Worried-Artist-4274

Not following SPY these days. SPY is down a few percent Bitcoin over 30%

Excilionator

Personally I feel like Bitcoin isn't in a great spot right now. It seems very correlated with SPY in recent times. Yet right now it's at a low while SPY rebounded back to near ath. If spy takes another nosedive back to 650 or worse I could easily see Bitcoin plunging below 70k.

Mediocre-Exchange-86

It's always a good idea to cash out when you make 10-20% to protect your investment. Don't get greedy! I would cash out and wait for a great buying opportunity when things dip again. Maybe use 90% of that in a safe investment like Bitcoin or SPY. The remaining 10% in something risky like you did previously that has the possibility for huge gains. This way if you lose you still have 90% of your money still available. Be careful putting to much money in something risky and try not to tell unless you are in the green or breaking even.

Puzzleheaded_War6102

You know how many bubbles bursted in the last 100 years? What happened each and every time 4 years later? Bubbles bursting is healthy and puts VOO and SPY on Black Friday sales. So I’ll be buying more. Same as I did on liberation day this year.

Puzzleheaded_War6102

Brother housing has never at any period in last 100 years outperformed S&P. you people with YOLO mentality is a much bigger part of issue than you realize. If you can 100-500/month, it will do wonders in 5-10 years if invested in SPY or VOO. I went from -150K debt to 1.5M in 15 years with S&P and chill.

Robotoverlordv1

It is a big deal and risk tolerance is irrelevant.  You generally should not buy and hold leveraged ETFs (like 2x or 3x bull/bear ETFs such as TQQQ, SPXL, SOXL, TNA, UVXY, etc.) for the long term because of three destructive mathematical forces that compound over time: 1. Daily Reset + Volatility Decay (Beta Slippage) Leveraged ETFs reset their leverage daily. They are designed to deliver 2x or 3x the daily return of the underlying index, not the long-term return. When the underlying index is volatile (even if it ends up flat or slightly positive over long periods), the daily re-leveraging causes the leveraged ETF to lose value over time. This is called volatility decay or beta slippage. Classic example (simplified): Day 1: Index +10% → 3x ETF +30% Day 2: Index –9.09% (back to original level) → 3x ETF –27.3% Result: Index = 0% over 2 days, but 3x ETF is down ~5.5% Repeat this hundreds of times and the decay becomes devastating. Real historical example (TQQQ vs QQQ, 2010–2025): If you had invested $100k in QQQ (Nasdaq-100) in Nov 2010 → ~$1.05 million by Nov 2025 Same $100k in TQQQ (3x QQQ) → ~$11–12 million in a straight bull market → Looks amazing… until you hit a volatile period. But look at 2022 (a bad but not catastrophic year for tech): QQQ: –32.6% TQQQ: –79.1% It would take a ~380% gain in TQQQ just to break even from that drawdown (while QQQ only needed ~48%). 2. Path Dependency Because of the daily reset, the long-term return of a leveraged ETF depends far more on the path than on the ending point of the underlying index. Even in long bull markets, any sideways/choppy periods cause permanent capital erosion. The longer you hold, the more likely you are to hit one of these periods. 3. Expense Ratios & Borrowing Costs Leveraged ETFs achieve leverage through swaps and futures, which cost money (especially when interest rates are high). Typical expense ratios are 0.9–1.2%, and the embedded financing cost can push effective drag much higher. When leveraged ETFs can still make sense Very short-term tactical trades (days to a few weeks) when you have a strong directional conviction Hedging in taxable accounts (e.g., short-term 3x bear ETFs instead of options) Very small portfolio allocation in strong trending markets (some people allocate 5–10% and rebalance) Bottom line Leveraged ETFs are trading vehicles, not investing vehicles. Almost everyone who says “I’ll just hold TQQQ forever because the market goes up long-term” eventually gets destroyed when the first serious bear market or prolonged sideways period arrives. If you want permanent long-term leverage, better alternatives exist: Margin in a brokerage account (you control the leverage and no daily reset) Futures (/NQ, /ES) rolled quarterly Options strategies (LEAPs, PMCC, etc.) For sophisticated investors: boxed perpetual swaps on crypto venues (lower decay) But for 99% of people: just buy and hold the unleveraged index (SPY, QQQ, IWM, etc.) and let compounding + lower volatility do the work over decades. Your sleep quality and ending balance will thank you.

Excilionator

All i know is that if SPY takes a nosedive again that long position is doomed

Electrical-Value-673

Didn't think of that, but isn't that only the case when you need the money right away? I'm in for the long term, even in a financial crisis, when I'll be probably be buying more (from everything). And I guess these ETF are pretty solvent, just like the SPY and QQQ ones?

MaxPower1867

AGNC is good. BTCI for Bitcoin exposure. Any SPY or QQQ index is good.

RealPrinceZuko

>The world is literally burning Meanwhile, things will not change until the bottom completely falls out. That means total riots/anarchy. People in power will not stop the pump until this happens. There's a lot of money floating around out there, even on the side lines. Keep watching the news and let fear drive your narrative. Meanwhile, SPY and other indexes will keep pushing ATHs

meshreplacer

The question is will retail swap to SPY which pays a dividend from income generated by business and swap out of IBIT.

Pure_Research647

There are quite a few. These are 2 examples https://totalrealreturns.com/s/SPY,NNN,O

watch-nerd

IBIT and SPY have a correlation of 0.05.

dataCollector42069

SPY up 1.5% and btc is down lmao

arbitra8

You don't need a bank. People can hold Bitcoin in an ETF now and just borrow against it the same with a line of credit on their brokerage account the same way they can borrow against a gold ETF, SPY, or whatever. Maybe some brokerages will count the Bitcoin ETF as more volatile than some other position, which would affect the amount of leverage but you're still getting the same interest rate.

BadBoyBilbo

Hello, fellow “investors”. I’m visiting from WSB and have SPY calls expiring Monday. Ideally I’m hoping for a 1-1.5% pump from Friday’s close. If you all could turn down the pessimism and inject a little more hopium, perhaps the crypto rebound will push markets higher. Godspeed. Regards, BBB

BadBoyBilbo

Hello, fellow “investors”. I’m visiting from WSB and have SPY calls expiring Monday. Ideally I’m hoping for a 1-1.5% pump from Friday’s close. If you all could turn down the pessimism and inject a little more hopium, perhaps the crypto rebound will push markets higher. Godspeed. Regards, BBB

dataCollector42069

or just use that money and put into the SPY and chill vs fighting an uphill battle against debt interest while holding an asset that does jack fucking shit

El_Peregrine

Probably: Selling from Japan due to systemic plumbing issues with the yen, and selling from China as they seek to collateralize with gold and punish the US system for embracing crypto. This is then triggering all kinds of cascades from other funds who want to wait out the selling until it subsides, then get back in when risk is less. Either way, it looks pretty awful in the context of other markets. Either QQQ, SPY follow because btc is a leading indicator, or all this dumping is specific to btc and we all just got fucking hosed. Not really happy with either scenario.

Simke11

This sub and their "DCA" and "time in the market", thinking they are buying SPY. Let them learn the hard way, although many who were around last cycle still didn't learn.

Low-Ad-782

Legit thinking about selling the extra cash I parked in SPY and QQQ in April drop and buying btc. Wanna see how low it can go tho

External_Anteater730

Simple- gold's historically valuable and unlike Bitcoin has an increasing supply. Before the need for fiat to finance the wars in England against the French, etc. and the US and its forever wars gold/specie was widely accepted because every culture needed something tangible and rare enough. The increasing supply was slow enough to generate enough inflation to stimulate spending with the decreased value over time. Also, given your grammar I don't think you even know how to do normalized regression. You follow the percentage of the deltas, not the magnitude- you could also compare the graphs after normalizing them. You can clearly see how gold and BTC have no correlation- BTC was and will never be a store of value, but a speculation. SPY after COVID with the trillions injected into the market by JPow made the market more manic than it would otherwise rationally be, and it's lasted until now. Literally nothing but a fancy tulip.

External_Anteater730

BTC is the new tulip. No utility aside from "value goes up, value must go up". The only thing it truly correlates with is SPY/VXUS. A fifth grader with GPT can write a Python script to determine the correlation index. As the economy wanes and the vast amount of Americans (and Chinese, look at the crashing housing market there rn), people need to liquidate to survive. And like the tulip- the dip accelerates as it falls.

CaptainRelevant

What if any coin holder bought SPY back then?

WideResult6111

What if you bought SPY back then?

FreeSoftwareServers

Trimmed about a third of my SPY to put into Bitcoin today!

salfora

Great job, OP! Excellent choice. SPY and VOO for the win once the market pulls back 💪 agreed the crypto scene has become a flaming pile of trash

blaziken8x

I just hope the AI bubble everyone is talking about doesn't burst after you buy SPY and VOO

Got_Engineers

Bitcoin is dipping because the financial markets have been in terminal for about a month now. Look at the financial market and then look at bitcoin because they’re correlated. $SPY has returned 2.85% 1M and 4.51% 3M. The stock market hasn’t gone anywhere and it’s in turmoil. they both go hand-in-hand so unless you’re comfortable losing more money, I’d probably stop buying for a while.

Opposite-Car2809

anyone near their mental well-being breakdown point? I hate myself for not selling at breakeven point in August and convert half of that money into QQQ or SPY, hate it!! Now everyone is saying we need another 3 years to see btc above 100k and US is likely heading to a economic recession

transfermymoons

Trust me, i wish I didn't and didn't expect the end of this 3rd cycle to hit the way it does. Maybe its because im still eyeing a property and part of me wants to use some part of the profits for that. And mind you, id absolutely never sell out completely or even close to that. :) And while i dont have any SPY shares anymore, Its moreso the 80% drops that are wearing a bit thin..!

early-retirement-plz

You’re confident that other people won’t sell and will continue buying blindly? I ask Because that’s all you’re buying into. There’s no underlying, no dividend, no earnings. Just hope and relentless posts assuring each other that you’re still holding and buying. Not an enviable position. When SPY drops, everyone sleeps easy. When BTC or any crypto drops, it could be the ultimate collapse.

TheLelouchLamperouge

Agreed, all depends on macro conditions in the end. If mag 7 falls and we have a true economic crash Bitcoin will sink at 3x the rate SPY does

ChaoticDad21

Especially if the stock market rolls over which it looks like it might soon. Weekly MACD on SPY just signaled.

Illustrious-Boss9356

Are you also adjusting your conventional adjustments for inflation? Also, many conventional investments have done worse. Sure you can cherry pick the SPY or the QQQ, but what about the Dow or TLT? Or what about Muni's or REITs? I don't see why BTC is held to a different standard... you SHOULD get a higher return investing in productive companies versus a gold/fiat replacement.

dataCollector42069

i switched to the SPY and a few single stocks in April 2025. Best decision I made

OKporkchop

You're not weak at all. Times like this absolutely suck. If you feel like you need the stability, which is understandable, there's no shame in hopping over to stuff like SPY and just letting some money ride. I'll get shit on this sub but Bitcoin is only 15% of my portfolio, and I've committed the sin of selling and moving funds over to more stable ETFs or even just cash, sitting in a savings account with less sexy yields but it's there for me if I know I need it. It's your life, do what feels right to you. Especially with a daughter on the way, you're going to be a dad now. Do whatever you feel is the right decision and fuck anyone else who doubts you or hates on you. This is your life.

Mindless_Bicycle5091

It sounds to me like you have accumulated a good stack and would benefit from shifting some of that DCA into SPY or even gold.  It's possible to love BTC but also want to build a balanced and diversified portfolio for a variety of reasons. They may not benefit as much from fiat debasement,  but they do benefit and have lower volatility.  At the end of the day you need to ask yourself if the possibility of having a higher net worth is worth the stress.

FunMycologist3981

I was looking at SPY and VOO. Both seem like a good place to store money for a longer timeframe

ilikeplayingthisgame

could have just invested in SPY and had zero stress

Default_Swap

Underperforming SPY which is pretty sad

thenamelessone7

Wow, we going below 100k again tonight? It least SPY ended just 1% below ATH...

e-cosmic

Nah don’t do it. Put it in Mag 7 or SPY

JoeJoeNathan

You have to look at SPY, the SP500 will determine what Bitcoin does

ilikeplayingthisgame

April when the market was pricing in a major recession based off Trumps tariffs. SPY was literally dropping 5% a day and bordering on circuit breakers.

ilikeplayingthisgame

Sure, but again in April the market was pricing in a major recession based off the future impacts of the tariffs. SPY was having -5% and bordering on circuit breakers. I don't think BTC has to dump -70% just because it has in past cycles.

ClearSnakewood

Stop measuring performance only in your shitcoin USD. Bitcoin has performed horribly this year in EUR, Russian Ruble, gold, the housing market and SPY and stonks in general. 2025 so far has NOT been a good year.

wvutrip

SPY better bounce here. If it breaks below 670 with conviction this all going to shit fast

RedditUser32804

I will do exactly that. And I am a big fan of Harry Browne and actually use the permanent portfolio in my trading. The only difference is that I am only long when the trend is up in SPY, TLT, and GLD when their trends are up instead of all the time. And I use LEAPS instead of shares. I have been successful with speculating with etfs, but never considered bitcoin until recently, so this really helps me a lot. Thank you for your replies.

foxroadblue

Read the OP. Holding through a 75% drawdown just to end up barely beating the SPY and trailing gold, not to mention any number of individual stocks. Why would this interest anyone? It used to be that even if you bought at the very top, if you held 4 years you could 3.5x your money last cycle or 20x the one before that. People already called the 2021 top disappointing, and this one is even more so.

UkraineCombat

Reason for crash??? I don't consider myself a great trader by any means , but SPY ATH 687.39 on October 29, 2025 is a good indicator ... Crypto is just NQ on steroids , it's big money cashing in and using 'let me but the dip" retail as exit liquidity . I m sure random shit kinda will pump , but the accumulation period has passed on many of them . Right now , any pump will be getting used as an exiting/taking profit ... I only held a few coins , but sold most of them . Some of them might be too early . I start to rotate once SPY hit 650 , every pump above that I would sell a portion. I m about 60% cash ... I never sell 100% . Ingot maybe 10% to go ... I usually time it ok, last time I went 50% cash was when everyone was waiting for Santa rally, than sold another 30% during one short pump in jan .... Market & Economy is in a complete disconnect right now . Imo, right now economy is crap /gov shut down/ tariffs will wipe out a lot of small businessea that rely on anything out of country . Normally, you anticipate strong earning from big retail names . But I think it will be a very tight Christmas for everyone. I watched money leaving the money for a good month now , the last time I have seen this trend was during the post covid crash . Back then the money leaving part lasted a few months, so my guess is that it will be trading sideways and maybe even see a few more good pumps . But when Christmas earnings will start hitting the tape - we will be going down hard in jan . Then again , it's only opinion of some ahole on reddit . You might go all in on some Pepe jizz shitcoin and riding in kambo in Jan 😉 Nobody really knows . I am going with my market experience since I started trading in 2005-06 ... Got wiped out in 07, but came back very strong after that fiasco . * https://preview.redd.it/pmvzpul1qjzf1.png?width=377&format=png&auto=webp&s=d87087a6f43104652a18e74aded5dac22a45347e

BankBonusOffer

Reason for crash??? I don't consider myself a great trader by any means , but SPY ATH 687.39 on October 29, 2025 is a good indicator ... Crypto is just NQ on steroids , it's big money cashing in and using 'let me but the dip" retail as exit liquidity . I m sure random shit kinda will pump , but the accumulation period has passed on many of them . Right now , any pump will be getting used as an exiting/taking profit ... I only held a few coins , but sold most of them . Some of them might be too early . I start to rotate once SPY hit 650 , every pump above that I would sell a portion. I m about 60% cash ... I never sell 100% . Ingot maybe 10% to go ... I usually time it ok, last time I went 50% cash was when everyone was waiting for Santa rally, than sold another 30% during one short pump in jan .... Market & Economy is in a complete disconnect right now . Imo, right now economy is crap /gov shut down/ tariffs will wipe out a lot of small businessea that rely on anything out of country . Normally, you anticipate strong earning from big retail names . But I think it will be a very tight Christmas for everyone. I watched money leaving the money for a good month now , the last time I have seen this trend was during the post covid crash . Back then the money leaving part lasted a few months, so my guess is that it will be trading sideways and maybe even see a few more good pumps . But when Christmas earnings will start hitting the tape - we will be going down hard in jan . Then again , it's only opinion of some ahole on reddit . You might go all in on some Pepe jizz shitcoin and riding in kambo in Jan 😉 Nobody really knows . I am going with my market experience since I started trading in 2005-06 ... Got wiped out in 07, but came back very strong after that fiasco . https://preview.redd.it/1f3mo61zjjzf1.png?width=377&format=png&auto=webp&s=0365ddbcc4e502e54f18999fad895754ce7ab64c

Major-Rabbit1252

I wouldn’t go all in on any one thing I’d spread it out a bit via DCA, especially into BTC. I’m starting to grow weary of alts, but they’re at a great price range right now if you have conviction and have DYOR I’d avoid any lump sums unless you’re putting it into an ETF like SPY, QQQ, VOO Before anything else though, I’d use it to pay off any high interest debt. Do you own a home? You could do some home repairs. Do you want a home? $20k isn’t a bad starting spot for a down payment World is your oyster! My only advice is not to lump sum into any crypto rn. DCA should be the move.

BushyOldGrower

Why do we assume bitcoin will always go up and never experience volatility, zoom out and you’ll see it’s not always an upward trajectory. Yes it can and will go down below is MA at times and vice versa, these are the only two things for certain we know bitcoin will do. Reading this sub 90% of posters should not be investing in Bitcoin or anything but SPY if there panties are going to get in a bunch every time it drops.

berry-7714

Lol, returns are compressing heavily, how is it going to 10x? They have been compressing every cycle and the 5 year chart will be below SPY gains in 3 more months, and of course below most stocks too, it is already behind several stocks in the 5 year today and its about to get a lot worst even if it stopa dropping.

meshreplacer

Terrible risk adjusted return. At least with SPY it is very liquid, can be held in SIPC/FDIC protected brokerage accounts, can sell options on SPY to hedge risk and generate cash.

Uberrings

Blame the crypto president and greedy exchanges with their cutthroat price swings to capitalize on panic selling waves. 19B of derivatives liquidated in 1 night and the brutal slow decline afterwards is enough to deter anyone and their mom, while stocks and gold are hitting record high. The math is simple. Why am I in this thing if it can drop 20% overnight, whereas for the same amount of money Joe doubled his earnings with gold, Jane tripled with NVDA and Brad just bought his Lambo with SPY and little volatility?

_CryptoAlpha_

SPY did peak 4 years ago tho

_CryptoAlpha_

You have a point with gold, but SPY had its last top 4 years ago too so it’s a valid comparison.

PE_Diablow

You’re literally talking about a 4 year cycle for bitcoin but comparing it to assets where the 4 year cycle doesn’t apply like SPY and gold. If that’s not called cherry picking data, idk what is

Simke11

This sub doesnt understand that timing the market is name of the game, instead they are playing it as if they are buying SPY

fromthepharcyde

Not sure if you noticed but the NASDAQ is down almost 2% and SPY lost over 1% today because the CEOs of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs commented on the chance of a pullback in stock evaluations over the next 1-2 years. This is fueling the narrative that the AI bubble will pop, which tanked tech/AI related stocks. Crypto more or less follows the same trends, so it crashed. Pretty obvious that if bad “news” like talking about an overvalued market seeing a pullback in a few years can tank the market, good news like the end of the government shutdown, another rate cut, and kicking off QE will bring it back up. This is the definition of “buy when others are fearful”.

Illustrious_Tear_682

I am truly happy you are getting wealthier. I am not saying today is the day to diversify. If you are already all in on BTC, you cannot buy more today. I already sold some SPY today and bought BTC. I guess we have different opinions about putting all of your eggs in one basket.

MrT_IDontFeelSoGood

You’re missing the point - Bitcoin goes up and down with risk assets bc it’s essentially a riskier version of QQQ. It doesn’t matter why QQQ or SPY or any other index of risk assets go up, Bitcoin tends to rise with them but more aggressively when times are good. Still, recent years show its risk-adjusted returns are worse than QQQ bc its drawdowns are so intense from all the leverage and speculation baked into it. And when markets feel shaky like this past month, Bitcoin is the first thing the people with money dump. The USD was up almost 10% in 2022. Energy sector was up over 50%. But those are less relevant bc those were temporary macro swings and most ppl can’t be expected to time tactical swings well.

Sea_Variety_1691

"Buy the dip" Suck my cck i'm moving back to SPY

ilikeplayingthisgame

so disappointed in BTC this year, could have just bought SPY this year, made more money and had significantly less stress. hopefully things improve soon before 5 year chart creeps up in march/april and that will be when people will really start doubting the space. we've already had bullish catalysts happen in the last month (like rate cuts) and it just dumps.

NinjaN-SWE

Not saying BTC is destined to fail but I want to point out a problem with your reasoning. You're putting up a risky investment against no investment. That is a poor way of thinking about this. Instead compare a lower risk investment with BTC. 20 years in the stockmarket (say the SPY index) has historically looked like a 5x return. Taking your $10k USD to $50k USD. So what you're risking by choosing BTC is not just the initial principal $10K, but the full alternative cost compared to the other options you have. Is it likely that BTC increases more than 5x in 20 years? I'm not qualified to say but I think that is certainly possible. I do see a question mark if BTC truly can reach $1M, i.e. 10x in 20 years, simply based on the market cap "problem" of it being such an enormous asset compared to others. I wouldn't chose BTC to get rich at this point. Rather I'd chose it as a long term hedge (because short term it follows the stock market up and down). In particular against the USD, which has a lot of challenges ahead and seems likely it will drop further in value compared to other currencies.

thenamelessone7

Well, even with btc the time to sell was a year ago and put it in SPY

ilikeplayingthisgame

if we go sideways for a few more months until march, the five year chart will below SPY

iTurbo6

I sold some this weekend and today. 106-111. With trading stocks and crypto, I personally feel that bitcoin has been taken over by wall street. the ETFs rule it. a down market is a down bitcoin. but worse is that bitcoin front runs and has even higher volatility. SNP choppiness leads to larger chops down by btc with smaller recoveries up. Govt/institutional buyers are using it as a store of value but its losing value - and retail isn't buying enough to have any momentum. Every rally is getting sold. Instead I'm thinking that the crypto revolution is stablecoins. Faster to send stablecoins than wire. I sold some bitcoin and sent the USDC to my robinhood in seconds. Feels like we are going to dump below 100 this month. SPY dump to 670 will easily bring BTC under 90.

El_Peregrine

This price action in context with other markets (ie, SPY, QQQ, gold all ripping) is not great. Looks super weak for the short to medium term.

Financial-Seesaw-817

Imo, only invest 10-20% dca into bitcoin, ethereum, xrp, etc... no meme crypto. 2 years and they could be up, down, same as today after bear market, w/e. But they will go back up in next bull market. I would build up savings to that emergency number you set. Usually, at least 3 mos of bills. Hysa is nice, bonds too. CD, w/e. If you have roth or 401k, max it. Put extra into an ira, taxable brokerage. QQQ, VUG, TQQQ, QQQM, SPY, ETC... Don't feel like you have to rush into a house until you are ready. All of this will help you keep wealth and grow it. Building a asset pool and lowering taxes. Then the home and property becomes all that much better. Don't rush it. It's about what you keep, not what you spend.

jurassicman11

Idk why yall be acting like you have to be rich to invest or trade options. $5/week will do, compounding exists. SPY and GLD 0DTE options sometimes cost as low as $3 and moon to over $500 with enough volatility. Once you learn how the market moves then you use it to your advantage. Learn or get left behind

Syncopat3d

Neither extreme is good. What about rebalancing into other thing like SPY or QQQ and not putting all the eggs in one basket?

G3RSTY7

The way I’d treat this is explain to him that you’d like him to diversify a bit (BTC, gold/plat, SPY whatever) but you can have a big bag of XRP. If XRP moons you’ll be like “dang shoulda listened to my dad could have had more oh well” but it’d still be a win/win. If he goes all in on XRP and you’re left with little—your memories of him might be slightly less fond..

ApplicationMean8503

Dumb comparison - bitcoin should be compared to a single stock like NVIDIA or possibly even Robinhood. When an index exist for crypto you can then compare v SPY. HOOD is up 389% over 1yr - just saying…

astroslostmadethis

Recession Indicator. XRP? Bitcoin or Ethereum only for actual "investing". And even that is speculating to much. Depending on how much the savings is. It might just be smarter and safer to drop it into SPY/ETF/Bonds etc. A retirement account even.

Pure_shenanigans_310

BTC is up 55% on the 1y while the SPY is up just under 20%. QQQ is up 29%...

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Post is by: Accomplished_Olive99 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/optionscalping/comments/1ojg6gm/trump_trade_tariff_call_strategy/ # A Behavioral-Driven Market Reversal Model # Overview The *Trump Tariff Call Strategy* is based on a recurring behavioral pattern observed during Donald Trump’s trade policy communications on Twitter and Truth Social. Historically, markets tend to sell off sharply following his **negative tariff threats**, then rebound when he **softens or reverses** his stance within days or weeks. This pattern allows traders to take a **contrarian long position** after an initial panic — anticipating a softening tweet and subsequent market recovery. # Behavioral Foundation Trump’s communication cycle on tariffs follows four repeatable phases: 1. **Hardline Announcement** – Tweets or statements introducing new or increased tariffs (“25% on all Chinese goods”). 2. **Market Reaction** – Volatility spikes, equities pull back, and safe-haven flows rise. 3. **Softening Communication** – Tweets suggesting talks, delays, or exemptions (“Great progress, we’ll delay tariffs for Christmas”). 4. **Market Recovery** – Risk assets rebound as perceived threat subsides. Analysis of six major tariff episodes (2018–2025) shows: * Average delay to softening: **≈ 35 days** * Median delay: **≈ 12 days** * Typical market rebound: **+3–5 % on SPY** # Trading Logic |Phase|Market Emotion|Typical Timing|Strategy Action| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**1. Tariff Threat**|Fear, uncertainty|Day 0|Wait for panic; identify volatility spike| |**2. Capitulation Window**|Maximum fear|Days 1–3|Enter long or buy SPY/QQQ call spreads| |**3. Softening/Deal Tweets**|Relief, optimism|Days 5–20|Take profits on rebound| |**4. Drift Phase**|Neutralization|—|Exit if no reversal by \~30 days| # Execution Model **Trigger:** Detect tariff-related keywords in Trump’s posts (“tariffs,” “China,” “trade deal,” “punish,” “delay,” etc.). **Entry Condition:** Within 1–3 days of the announcement, when SPY or QQQ have dropped ≥ 1.5 % and VIX > 20. **Trade Structure:** * Buy 1–3 week **call spreads** on SPY or QQQ. * Optional hedge: short VIX calls or buy S&P futures. **Exit Conditions:** * Positive or conciliatory tweet appears, *or* * Market rebounds ≥ 3 %, *or* * 15 trading days elapse. # Statistical Survival Model A Kaplan–Meier survival analysis of major tariff announcements shows: |Metric|Value (days)| |:-|:-| |Mean time to softening|87.8| |Median (without long outlier)|≈ 12| |25th / 75th percentiles|5 / 89| |Typical softening window|2–35 days| Interpretation: Most tariff threats “survive” less than a month before Trump softens; half reverse inside two weeks. # Example **Event:** Aug 1 2019 — “10 % tariffs on $300 B of Chinese goods.” **Market:** SPY −3 % in two sessions. **Follow-up:** Aug 13 2019 — “Tariff delay for Christmas season.” **Result:** SPY +4 % rebound → 150–250 % call-spread gain. # Conclusion The *Trump Tariff Call Strategy* exploits a predictable behavioral feedback loop between Trump’s communication style and market psychology. Each cycle begins with **shock and fear**, then resolves through **softening rhetoric** that fuels relief rallies. By systematically identifying tariff-related threats and timing entries around volatility peaks, traders can capture **short-term mean-reversion gains** with defined risk — effectively **turning political noise into a structured trading edge**. [https://cromcall.com/trumpcall-strategy](https://cromcall.com/trumpcall-strategy) [Calculator](https://cromcall.com/trumpcall-strategy) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

605_

I’m not. Been following Barron’s short BTC/long BTC positions for SPY and it’s been paying off past 2 weeks.

TroubleInMyMind

New York Stock Exchange ticker SPY.

Vivid_Gift3543

This was me 3 yrs ago. I was mostly all in on SPY only, then started to dca monthly eqaully in to btc. Fastfoward now, BtC returns is more than entire spy bag. Take the pill dont look back

Sea_Variety_1691

yep, BTC is still up 26% on USD YTD as well, tho a lot of that is down to the dollar declining (which i guess is a core fundamental) honestly my conviction in bitcoin grew when i saw it only declined 20% during the tariff scare in April and it was holding up better than SPY at points. i'm not as confident as everyone else seems to be that there will be another 50% drawdown so i'm just stacking as much as i can now

Mohammad_Noruzi

NVDA and SPY are the only stocks that look good to me. also shorting INTL would be good too

daybyday209

SPY ATH, QQQ ATH, more than a handful of the MAG7 stocks at ATH. Maybe the move up happens in the last 2 months, but anyone who says the best place to park your money in for 2025 was BTC is flat out lying.

Croyscape

I totally see him buying SPY calls day before announcing another round tariffs

findingkieron

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) $672.48 +$93.24 (+16.10%) Past year Bitcoin (BTC) $110,540.00 +$42,326.00 (+62.05%) Past year

biba8163

BTC is absoultely gettting murdered this year after 155% in 2023 and 121% in 2024. - QQQ 19% YTD - BTC 17% YTD - SPY 14% YTD

Few_Response_7028

I mean if you [look at the math](https://casebitcoin.com/charts), we're still doing great. We're doing way better than SPY.

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Post is by: SoftKill21 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1odm85w/where_most_edges_die_between_idea_and_execution/ I’ve been trading and building systems for over a decade. Some of them looked perfect. Smooth equity curve, tight drawdown, even the sort of Sharpe that makes you double check the math. Then I added realistic costs such as a few ticks of slippage, doubled commission, average spread per pair and watched them all fall apart. That’s when it hit me. You don’t trade your idea. You trade your *execution*. Every backtest hides a cost layer: fill delay, partials, liquidity depth, and time exposure. The live market doesn’t care about your model, it cares how you enter it. Example from this year. SPY one-minute or five-minutes, mean reversion model. Looked great in sim. Added two-tick slippage per side and 0.03% fee. Edge dropped from +0.8R to negative. Same logic. Just friction. What changed for me was simple: I started treating cost like data. Each pair gets a ledger with spread, slippage, and exposure time logged after every session. You start seeing patterns. Quiet hours with tight quotes. Volatile periods where depth collapses. On top of that I started to look at bigger sessions, minimum 15min timeframes, but my preferred ones are at 60min timeframe systems. It gives so much more room to breath. The same thing applies for manual trading as well. I saw so many systems getting rekt by the market order fills, by having huge gaps, especially on the high volatility periods. Both ways, from entry or from exit, so this is a very important field, yet not so many put accent into it. I know, it sounds boring, but boring is what ends up paying in the end. So I was curious about you reader, how much attention honestly you put into this hidden field? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

dataCollector42069

im green thanks to leaving crypto for stocks. AMD pump did me well. Also made money with memes such as OPEN and traditional SPY DCAing

dataCollector42069

btc isnt worth the risk to reward ratio compared to my SPY DCA either. I am just waiting for eth to come below $2k and will snag some