SPY

SchwiftySqaunch

There are very sexy, but SPY/microsoft/chip stocks have been good to me. Any of the two big to fail companies like Walmart Coca-Cola and others are pretty dependable if you're thinking long-term 5 to 10 years

Preme2

If Bitcoin trades like the SPY or QQQ, do you think the 4 year cycle is over if the economy/market holds well into 2026?

VariatCA

Crypto still has options for high-risk high-reward, namely thousands of other altcoins and memecoins. Of course, like lottery tickets, many of them are called high-risk for a reason... they're much more likely to simply lose money with. BTC is at the point where it trends more like the SPY or QQQ index fund, which considering its market cap and institutional adoption, makes sense. It's still more volatile than the S&P or Nasdaq, but that also includes its upwards volatility. It beats the S&P on nearly every metric in growth, but also has more potential for drawback in bear markets.

mustachechap

lol, that’s pretty funny. In theory she understands that lump sum is the way to go, and that the SPY is the way to go, but when it came down to actually handling larger sums of money she got cold feet. Oh well, just happy to be able to own some BTC. I’m hoping to do well this bull run (which I anticipate will peak in the next couple of months). Hoping to surprise her with whatever gains I get. Good luck to us both :)

EarningsPal

Some Bitcoiners already know they will die with the goal to pass on the BTC. Because they know for a fact they will regret selling. So at some point that old shit. The mess on chain they made in the past, will just sit there. It’s too much work to deal with. But they just move on and restack as possible because it’s for 10 years from now. They have no choice. To them it’s a guaranteed gain of future buying power faster than holding the SPY. They believe it’s currency wars > total productivity US companies SP500. And of course they believe BTC wins the currency war. It’s mind share that matters. Ever more people who will just aim to borrow against it and stack. If they want something, they will buy it with a defi loan somewhere. Because they can’t stomach selling but they realize they will die. So a smidge risked in defi won’t matter in their lifetime even if it was lost to a protocol code defect or dev theft. So as time passes. BTC will gain mind share even if it’s not the fastest in the crypto world or particular companies. Let’s call the winner at 33 trillion m2.

mustachechap

Lol my wife is also pretty risk averse. We’ve only been married a few years, so this was something I recently discovered. She makes more money and recently received a pretty big chunk of cash and prefers to keep it in a high interest MMA. We compromised on DCA’ing into the SPY over two years, but I was ready to lump sum it all two years ago. Anyway, thankfully our finances aren’t completely “together” just yet, so I’ve been aggressively buying FBTC lately, knowing that her portion is invested more cautiously.

DaBurgerBoi

Tbh either grab sol on the low, or just dont go crypto rn. We are anywhere to mid/end of cycle, probably mid but still. Your best profit opportunities are gone and you would be incuring alot of risk all inning rn. bitcoin is up 5x already this cycle already, Solana is up over 14x. Go for stocks and funds like SPY or S&P. save up for next bear market. You could also park it in crypto but you risk this being the peak and having your money tied up till next bull market. I am pretty bullish still but you never know.

diarioechohumo

Easy! I'm sharing my full Bitcoin income strategy using IBIT, designed to work through market cycles, generate cash flow, and minimize taxes over the long term. The strategy is built on the 500-day halving theory, covered call income, margin management, defensive hedging during bear markets, and the principle of never selling the core position. Here's the deep breakdown: I started with \$300,000 in capital: * \$60,000 in a Roth IRA, fully invested in IBIT * \$10,000 in a Roth 401k, invested in SPY * \$230,000 in a taxable brokerage account, fully in IBIT I also borrowed \$165,000 using margin to increase my IBIT exposure. That brought my total IBIT position to \$455,000, at an average cost basis of about \$57/share. Each week, I sell covered calls on my IBIT holdings, targeting around 0.10 delta. Historically, this type of strategy yields around 15% annually. On \$455,000, that generates approximately \$68,250 per year in premiums. Here's how that breaks down: * About \$9,000 in premiums come from the Roth IRA and are completely tax-free * The remaining \~\$59,250 come from the taxable account and the margin-funded shares Margin costs me 5.25% annually on the \$165,000 borrowed, which is about \$8,662 per year in interest. I pay this interest using a portion of the premiums collected from the weekly call sales. After interest, my net premium income is approximately \$59,600 per year. Of that, \~\$50,600 is taxable and \~\$9,000 is tax-free. Importantly, I apply the after-tax, after-interest portion of the premiums—what I call "net net income"—to gradually reduce the margin balance itself. Over time, this means my debt is shrinking while the asset value of IBIT potentially grows. Even before a cycle peak, I’m reducing risk in the background without selling any shares. In addition, from my full-time job earning \$56,000/year, I contribute approximately \$600/month to my investment accounts. This ensures I meet the annual Roth IRA contribution limit while slowly boosting my long-term tax-free holdings. I contribute 6% of my salary to my Roth 401k, and my employer matches 4% into the same Roth 401k. Because of my combined salary and taxable option premium income, I land in the 24% to 32% federal tax bracket, plus California’s 9.3% to 11.3% income tax bracket. On the \~\$50,600 in taxable premiums, I expect to pay around \$22,000 to \$25,000 annually in taxes. But here's where the real strategy kicks in: My core principle is to never sell IBIT. Instead of realizing capital gains, I generate weekly income from covered calls while allowing the ETF to appreciate. This avoids triggering taxable events related to selling. The only time I'd realize a gain is if I get early assigned on a call and my shares are called away. If that happens, I’ll check the holding period. If I've held the shares for more than one year, I qualify for long-term capital gains; if not, I try to avoid assignment by rolling the option out and up. If Bitcoin crashes before the expected ATH window, I have a contingency plan. I can sell a deep in-the-money LEAP call at a much lower strike than planned—perhaps even \$25 or \$30—depending on the price at that time. This allows me to raise enough capital from the LEAP premium to pay off the margin and eliminate interest payments. I don’t panic sell IBIT. Instead, I use the premium income and the LEAP structure to manage downside risk while keeping my core holdings intact. When the market reaches its expected peak (based on the 500-day post-halving theory, which puts the next top around September 2025), I plan to sell a deep-in-the-money (DITM) LEAP call, such as a Jan 2027 expiration with a strike around \$30 or \$40. If IBIT reaches \~\$100/share by then, a DITM LEAP can yield a very large premium, potentially \$50+ per share. Selling this LEAP gives me a large upfront cash inflow without actually selling my shares. I use that LEAP premium to fully pay off the \$165,000 margin balance. That eliminates interest costs and removes margin call risk entirely. Most importantly, because a LEAP sale is an open position, I don’t pay taxes on that premium until one of three things happens: the LEAP is assigned, expired, or closed. Until then, it's unrealized. This is key: I remove debt at the market top, neutralize risk, and defer taxes. I can then continue selling weekly calls on any uncovered portion of my IBIT, generating more income even after locking in the top through the LEAP. During the bear market phase (typically about 12-18 months post-ATH), I accumulate cash from call income. I do NOT DCA blindly. Instead, I hold and wait. When we hit deep bear market lows (expected late 2026 or early 2027), I plan to buy more IBIT or rotate into leveraged ETFs like BITX, or long-term LEAP calls on IBIT or MSTR. This aggressive reinvestment during fear phases is how I compound over multiple cycles. The strategy I follow during the bear market is almost identical to what I do in the bull phase, but inverted. I shift from selling calls on IBIT to doing the same with inverse instruments. I apply the same covered call strategy to positions in inverse ETFs like SBIT or BITI, or use shares of inverse MicroStrategy proxies like SMST or MSTZ. I sell weekly calls against these bearish instruments while they appreciate in a declining market. This provides income during downtrends and gives me even more cash to deploy when the market bottoms out. The account structure is also intentional: * Roth IRA: tax-free growth + tax-free weekly income from calls * Roth 401k: tax-free SPY growth * Taxable: income and appreciation with margin flexibility By combining this structure with cycle-based timing, I avoid taxable sales, maximize cash flow, defer realized gains through LEAPs, and only reinvest at the deepest value points. This isn’t financial advice, but it is my real strategy: full-time job, low lifestyle cost, Bitcoin ETF compounding, option income, responsible use of margin, applying premium income to reduce debt, contingency planning for early crashes, bear market hedging, and cycle-based patience. I’m not trying to time days or weeks. I’m trying to own time itself.

diarioechohumo

Easy! I'm sharing my full Bitcoin income strategy using IBIT, designed to work through market cycles, generate cash flow, and minimize taxes over the long term. The strategy is built on the 500-day halving theory, covered call income, margin management, and the principle of never selling the core position. Here's the deep breakdown: I started with $300,000 in capital: * $60,000 in a Roth IRA, fully invested in IBIT * $10,000 in a Roth 401k, invested in SPY * $230,000 in a taxable brokerage account, fully in IBIT I also borrowed \$165,000 using margin to increase my IBIT exposure. That brought my total IBIT position to \$455,000, at an average cost basis of about \$57/share. Each week, I sell covered calls on my IBIT holdings, targeting around 0.10 delta. Historically, this type of strategy yields around 15% annually. On \$455,000, that generates approximately \$68,250 per year in premiums. Here's how that breaks down: * About \$9,000 in premiums come from the Roth IRA and are completely tax-free * The remaining \~\$59,250 come from the taxable account and the margin-funded shares Margin costs me 5.25% annually on the \$165,000 borrowed, which is about \$8,662 per year in interest. I pay this interest using a portion of the premiums collected from the weekly call sales. After paying interest, my net premium income is approximately \$59,600 per year. Of that, \~\$50,600 is taxable and \~\$9,000 is tax-free. I also work a full-time job earning \$56,000/year. I contribute 6% of my salary to my Roth 401k, and my employer matches 4% into the same Roth 401k. Because of my combined salary and taxable option premium income, I land in the 24% to 32% federal tax bracket, plus California’s 9.3% to 11.3% income tax bracket. On the \~\$50,600 in taxable premiums, I expect to pay around \$22,000 to \$25,000 annually in taxes. But here's where the real strategy kicks in: My core principle is to never sell IBIT. Instead of realizing capital gains, I generate weekly income from covered calls while allowing the ETF to appreciate. This avoids triggering taxable events related to selling. The only time I'd realize a gain is if I get early assigned on a call and my shares are called away. If that happens, I’ll check the holding period. If I've held the shares for more than one year, I qualify for long-term capital gains; if not, I try to avoid assignment by rolling the option out and up. Now, when the market reaches its expected peak (based on the 500-day post-halving theory, which puts the next top around September 2025), I plan to sell a deep-in-the-money (DITM) LEAP call, such as a Jan 2027 expiration with a strike around \$30 or \$40. If IBIT reaches \~\$100/share by then, a DITM LEAP can yield a very large premium, potentially \$50+ per share. Selling this LEAP gives me a large upfront cash inflow without actually selling my shares. I use that LEAP premium to fully pay off the \$165,000 margin balance. That eliminates interest costs and removes margin call risk entirely. Most importantly, because a LEAP sale is an open position, I don’t pay taxes on that premium until one of three things happens: the LEAP is assigned, expired, or closed. Until then, it's unrealized. This is key: I remove debt at the market top, neutralize risk, and defer taxes. I can then continue selling weekly calls on any uncovered portion of my IBIT, generating more income even after locking in the top through the LEAP. During the bear market phase (typically about 12-18 months post-ATH), I accumulate cash from call income. I do NOT DCA blindly. Instead, I hold and wait. When we hit deep bear market lows (expected late 2026 or early 2027), I plan to buy more IBIT or rotate into leveraged ETFs like BITX, or long-term LEAP calls on IBIT or MSTR. This aggressive reinvestment during fear phases is how I compound over multiple cycles. I also don’t sit idle during down markets. I’ll consider inverse BTC ETFs like SBIT to profit from the downside, or use puts or inverse ETFs on MicroStrategy like MSTZ or SMST. I hedge actively and build war chests during bear phases. The account structure is also intentional: * Roth IRA: tax-free growth + tax-free weekly income from calls * Roth 401k: tax-free SPY growth * Taxable: income and appreciation with margin flexibility By combining this structure with cycle-based timing, I avoid taxable sales, maximize cash flow, defer realized gains through LEAPs, and only reinvest at the deepest value points. This isn’t financial advice, but it is my real strategy: full-time job, low lifestyle cost, Bitcoin ETF compounding, option income, responsible use of margin, and cycle-based patience. I’m not trying to time days or weeks. I’m trying to own time itself.

Ambitious-Foot6100

If you can stomach the volatility. Bitcoin has a history of falling by 75% and then bouncing back. It also depends on your overall portfolio. If 50k is all you got I would split it between stocks. Hys and bitcoin. 50% VOO or SPY, 25% hysa and 25% bitcoin.

Local-Mall-7203

tbf it did cause a scare and made people take money out of tech stocks. Not a huge deal for say SPY (though still a decent deal) but is more important for baskets like QQQ

catterj

I still have stuff like a car but 90% of my investments are in BTC. I have a pension at my job that I can access with a penalty if I quit, and so about 6% is taken up by that. There are other odds and ends I pretty much can’t put in btc. I sold a single family dwelling my wife and I had as a rental. That paid off debt allowing me to buy more btc per month. I own some MSTR now, but that was a silly move and I will put that into the btc ETF on Monday. Diversification is not necessary for me. Diversification is for when you don’t know anything about what you’re investing in, and/or you are afraid of the risk. I know about Bitcoin, but if you don’t know about it or any company in the S&P 500, then just buy SPY. And start learning about Bitcoin. In my view, risk is the chance of permanent loss of capital, NOT volatility. I don’t care about volatility. Go up, go down, go sideways - buy, buy, buy the bitcoin. I believe my Bitcoin holdings will not experience a permanent loss of capital because of what I have learned. Too much to put into this already too long reply.

Full_Illustrator1525

Hypothetically you could use one third to buy a piece of investment property and hire a tax professional to explain the concept of bonus depreciation, put one third in QQQ, and the rest split across SPY, a good high yield bond fund or private credit fund, a maybe what’s left just have some fun or buy gold. Obviously, not investment advice and you should always consult a professional.

BITCOIN_FLIGHT_CLUB

This math is wild. If bitcoin only doubled over 10 years, the CAGR would be ~7.2%. That’s wild for BTC and would make it a bad investment vs the SPY for example. BTC on the conservative side returns twice that, which would make the return 379k after 10 years on a 100k initial. I’ll carry your interest and fees forward, so that’s: 379k- 100k - 70k = 209 K vs 279k / 2 = 139.5K. So 209k - 139.5k = 69.5 K just for doing business with them? Just take the plunge yourself.

VariatCA

Got nothing to do with "hunting liquidity" or "following the cycle" or BTC in general at all, the markets are on fire with in-house political fighting between Elon & Trump today, the S&P/Nasdaq have been trying to sell-off multiple times, and Crypto algorithms trend alongside those markets. If SPY/Nasdaq dumps, BTC/Eth/Everything else tends to immediately follow. Could be worse, at least we're just loosely mirroring the bigger markets. Tesla's looking to close down -20% today over this shitstorm lol.

urbangoose

I'm pretty neutral on this At one hand, I don't want too much regulation overhead and I do believe the better projects will survive in the end. I know Ethereum has been shat on the past 4 years by the community, but it's 'surviving'. It's done better than 99% of other coins since the 2021 peak. It's just Bitcoin has far surpassed any other coin these 4 past years. And on the other hand, if people want to gamble and lose money, they will do it (and let them do it) - crypto or not. Current trend tells me that it's more than crypto. The likes of DraftKing and Polymarket becoming enormous is because retail traders are willing to play the game. And, even if you take away the meme coins, DraftKing, and Polymarket, etc., there's still TSLA, GME, AMC, and even SPY 0DTE options. Yea, pump fun theatrics is crazy. But coins come and go. Some reach the moon before they go, some don't. I was looking back at top 10 coins of 2016 the other day. Dash, Maid, Xem, Steem.. were all considered the 'best crypto projects' that year. I doubt anyone prior to Covid even heard of those coins.. No, they weren't meme coins but the bad apples, it's all the same. They come and go.

Guysmily425

agree - wish some of these guys focused half their saving enthusiasm into SPY for diversity

urbangoose

💯 ARKK has to be one the most pathetic excuse of an ETF in the last 2 decades. The only ETF that somehow have gone down in the past 5 years all the while SPY, NQ, and Bitcoin have continuously made higher highs.

Abundance144

I've seen days where the SPY is down and Bitcoin is up, so I dont know. I hope it doesn't tank too hard! I want to retire.

DefsNotAVirgin

that is wntirely possible, but given that bitcoin crashes when SPY does too, its more likely to me that bitcoin becomes like any other asset in the big boys portfolio and will suffer the same consequences

vqkyg53f3k72

I literally would liquidate my 2 SPY ETF shares

pcm2a

Open up a stock account at Fidelity or similar. Deposit your mother's money there. Put half of it in a Bitcoin ETF like IBIT or ARKB and the other half in the S&P500, like VOO or SPY. You won't have to worry about risking it all, you won't lose it on bad coins, and you won't have your account compromised and everything stolen.

KryptoSC

Exactly this for me. In my case I only had 2 choices, leave my IRA portfolio in SPY or convert it to IBIT. There was no other option that didn't involve a 45% penalty for liquidating and buying actual Bitcoins.

Known-Respect9935

Diversification is good if you’ll buy negatively correlated assets to reduce volatility, but since Bitcoin, Gold, and SPY are positively correlated most of the time (they go up together and down together) you should only hold the highest performer out of these assets, it is pointless to own all of them at the same time

OnlyBTC2035

I totally agree with you and that’s why i want to keep the BTC allocation around 35%, have my house and the rest in SP500 indexes funds like VOO-SPY.

holdmysugar

Yes way less risky than any individual stock. I learned this the hard way when AT&T shat on its shareholders and I lost tens of thousands of dollars. Not necessarily less risky than SPY though. The thing I love about the S&P 500 ETF is that if a company decides to go to shit, they drop out before they go bankrupt and a better company takes their place. This to me, is the safest place to be. It won't return what bitcoin is about to do in the next 10 years, but eventually Bitcoin will stabilize more and start giving returns more comparable to the S&P.

holdmysugar

The only good way to do this honestly is if you can get a low interest SBA loan, you need to have a business to do it, and you need to be able to fulfill all of their requirements which normally are some reporting items and insurance requirements. If you are in some kind of disaster area you will get generous SBA offers. I have done this twice. One was a 30 yr loan at like 3%. I met all the requirements had receipts to show where the money was spent, but my business does well so I was able to save the amount of the loan in an investment account. I ended up buying a rental property the first time. The second time I got a smaller 15 yr loan for 4%. I did all the requirements for SBA, technically I have all receipts to show how the money was spent in case I ever get audited. I also have the loan amount as the initial deposit in an investment account that holds 50% BITB, 25% SPY, and 25% XLK. I also had a year before I even started paying it back, so as you can imagine it has already grown some. Loan 1, my Tennant is paying the note. Loan 2, I will pay for with business profits and keep the investment account growing. SBA seems to have no problem with what I do since I have assets, receipts, documentation to back up all claims, and I pay my notes on time.

alpha247365

Check out its 1 year 5 year compounded performance relative to SPY QQQ GLD and your favorite ETF in your portfolio.

Sapere_aude75

I'm a big Bitcoin supporter, but this is stupid. We should be paying down our debt not purchasing assets. This is no different than buying gold or SPY. This is not the purpose of government

outerdead

more chatgpt, no idea if its right, but it sounds bad. **He’s assuming Bitcoin behaves like QQQ or SPY**, which it doesn’t.

Fun-Sundae4060

False. You can hold LETFs long term. There is an efficient frontier for volatility and gains. The sweet spot for QQQ is 2.1x and SPY is about 3x. For a swing trade, you win massively with multiple green day’s in a row, even with decay. How do people keep commenting about LETFs when I know about that already

futureformerjd

I sound like a guy who thinks it's foolish to put all my assets into one basket. Wouldn't matter if it were Bitcoin, Treasury bonds, gold, or SPY.

IntrepidFarmer5666

People will see that coordinated drop across the entire crypto market and still claim that there is no manipulation going on in equity markets  They do this same exact thing with SPY 30 min before close because robinhood automatically closes option contracts that expire this is literally stop loss hunting to force liquidity so they can buy cheaper while profiting by forcing the sell off and exiting at the top except with options it’s so they can buy back the options they sold when the price drops dramatically

Ethmemes

Yes I agree that investing in SPY is the good choice. If OP is being egged on by this forum of 1M$ prices, he could have tried that same luck in picking individual stocks and definitely made more than the 2x that BTC has had in 4 years.

MusicalBonsai

Not sure where you checked your data but I looked at 5 year price action and SPY 97% while BRBA is up 186%

New-Ad-9629

I have been tracking Bitcoin vs SPY and QQQ. There is a clear diversion and decoupling. Bitcoin is now being treated as a risk-off asset, not a 'risk on' asset.

BitcoinBaller420

What a perfect setup. Bitcoin is down because correlation traders are seeing the big SPY / QQQ moves (Trump 50% tariff threats) and expecting bitcoin to follow. They don't realize they are the only sellers, the correlations are broken, and bitcoin will likely rebound in their face. You can see the same effect on Wed around 1pm... big tradfi rip down on macro uncertainty, bitcoin down levered on bots, but tradfi assets continue to sink the rest of the day while bitcoin rallies into the close and sets all time highs that night. I expect the same thing today, I'll be buying. The models are broken, take advantage of these fire sales.

motivated_user21

It’s starting to look like they won’t matter anymore. DCA’ing from any point would be profitable at this moment if you bought before yesterday. I think Saylor will be right in that it just turns into basically a 2x SPY

BitcoinBaller420

Imagine panic selling 106 because SPY is down and bitcoin is a "levered risk asset" only to watch it recover in a matter of *hours*. Your models are broken. Market makers short overnight looking at the bitcoin price action: sweaty\_guy.meme

R3dFiveStandingBye

SPY just puked, Bitcoin just reacting we good

ItsPickles

Probably in about 8 years. Once bitcoin millionaires aren’t just those who bought in 2013 and are more mainstream. It will be more common akin to holding AMZN, GOOG, META etc. rather than replacing SPY or USD

urbangoose

Usually I just laugh at stuff like this.. thought I'd actually write something I've seen the Twitter posts and YT videos about "Oh there's a 2-3 month lag between M2 and BTC". No, there isn't. M2 has been going up. SPY has been going up. BTC has been going up. Everything, on a monthly time frame is highly correlated. This is how it looks if you span it out longer than the 2024-2025 chart people have been posting on Twitter and YT. [https://charts.bgeometrics.com/m2\_global.html](https://charts.bgeometrics.com/m2_global.html) Are you going to just ignore the 2018 peak? How about the 2021 peak that BTC came first? I'm not saying BTC isn't going to go up in a higher time frame. But, this isn't a tradeable information. To say, BTC is only up from here (or down May then up June+) is doing a disservice and non-sense. That's too low time-frame of a prediction based on a high time-frame information.

Cautious_You7796

Yeah I had huge gains in 2020-2021 and lost it all. I wish I would've taken some gains, bought SPY, maybe bought something nice for myself, and then started accumulating again. I've learnt my lesson.

PresentAdvertising29

1. Part of why gold is a relatively poor hedge is that it itself is inflationary. Roughly 2% gets added to the supply every year, that's about 5000 TONS yearly. The official inflation rate of the USD over the past 20 years is around 2.3% yearly, so its not hard to see why it doesn't perform THAT well. And yet, gold was selling around $450/oz in 2005, while SPY was about $120. So, this non-productive metal has still handily outperformed the S&P. Yes, the belief is that "Bitcoin’s value proposition that it's a highly undervalued form of digital gold that will eventually reach its intrinsic value and then grow more slowly, like gold does? " Both because Bitcoin is still quite speculative compared to gold, and because of its many superior qualities (deflationary, portable, verifiable, secure). How do you determine what the intrinsic value is? We just can't, only the market can compute that, over many years. All good questions BTW, ignore anyone saying otherwise.

AllUrUpsAreBelong2Us

Over a long enough period it just goes up. So does SPY, because the dips become irrelevant on a bigger timescale.

AdmirableUse2453

The solution is to make it so you can easly invest in stock in bitcoin not only in fiat, like having 1 BTC in stock or ETF like SPY and earn interest back in BTC.

Dorkasteri

I thought more confident market sentiment would benefit risk assets, but apperently I know nothing. Right now all eyes are on the american stocks. Seems like sell everything to buy SPY.

qwertydcf

SPY is up 20 points alrdy, so Bitcoin will follow, but im also always wrong so ye its up to you

foxroadblue

Already back to 104K. Pretty annoying it rallies less than SPY

Sundance37

Meh, if we are all being fair, bitcoin people seem to want to only talk about bitcoin. And there is already a place for that. If every single investing subreddit were all talking about bitcoin, all of the time, life would be far less interesting. Although it would be great for bitcoin. But just let them talk about their SPY holdings and we can talk about bitcoin.

cryptoNcoffee

Here’s the reality. It costs millions, if not tens of millions, to get all of the regulatory licenses, authority fees, employee infra, etc., to get a legit RWA platform. So far I’ve seen a a few well funded ones like BackedFi. They don’t have a token just RWA tokens on chain like SPY etc. pretty cool. Personally, I’m not using any RWA anything until I see a few years of a protocols success with billions TVL

Kesonac

Lol. Someone Just bought 10mil Puts for SPY, prob a Trump Insider. Yall are so delusional, No run will Happen while Trump is Here

Similar_Scar7089

If you'd have DCA into bitcoin or SPY over those cherry picked 4 years, you'd still be far better off buying bitcoin

Similar_Scar7089

If you DCA into Bitcoin and SPY for the past 4 years you'd have 50% more if you invested into bitcoin.

Fun-Sundae4060

Because it clearly looks like none of you realize where the money is coming in from to buy BTC? Lmfao. It’s braindead to not realize that bullishness in the stock market will pump all risk assets. If the SPY and QQQ cross 200SMA or China trade deals are announced, BTC will pump. It’s that simple 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

xtexm

If you HODL until a million, pull out and put it on margin with a broker, you now have $200,000. That could go into any of the numerous BTC yield products. BITO MSTY YBTC etc etc. By that time, there should be another 200+ competitors, and anything that’s NOT Bitcoin related, (SPY) will look like bonds. Flat, stable, and not worth it.

jacd03

That dump on SPY last 10 minutes lmao from 570 to 563. Meanwhile ETH pumping.

biba8163

> The astute investor uses BTC as a diversifier maybe along with Gold along low cost broad market index funds and tech stocks. > The simpleton thinks BTC should be outperforming every year otherwise it's not a good investment. > The Low IQ investor holds shitcoins which under-perform U.S Treasuries or lose money over medium and long terms | Year | GOLD | BTC |:-----------|:------------:|:------------:| | 2018 | -1.06% | -73.48% | 2019 | 18.28% | 92% | 2020 | 25.75% | 303.09% | 2021 | -3.73% | 59.71% | 2022 | 2.08% | -64.27 | 2023 | 13.14% | 155.41% | 2024 | 27.20% | 120.98% | 2025 | 27.54 | 2.99% **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) **Only including cryptos that were $100+ Billion marketcaps ~7 years ago (tiny/small caps may outperform when they have little to no value) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 25.19% | QQQ | 15.92% | GOLD | 13.83% | SPY | 9.99% | ETH | 3.24% | XRP | -15.12%

nickjsul4

VOOG, SPY, or any asset that has been around long enough and proven to be solid investments. Take a smaller portion and put it into bitcoin seeing as though it’s a higher risk asset. If you want to risk blowing $25k instead of growing that money for your kid, you probably shouldn’t be gambling in the crypto space with it. Maybe read a some books on investing instead of ask in people on Reddit what to do with your money? Can even make sound financial decisions but is having children. Sounds about right on this sub.

MrSir6t4

You can get a better return than SPY by HODLing and you can go outside and touch grass.

Past_Hotel_5987

More risk on SPY than the risk of altcoins, let's admit it.

Squirrel_McNutz

Not sure how safe of a bet the SPY is anymore

jamjam794

10-20% for the risk? naah. min 30-40% CAGR on average. if i want 10% i can make a save bet with SPY. crypto is here to stay, yes. but altcoins are still a gamble on its own level.

narrowbuys

3 week old account, probably a spy for $SPY

Majestic-Ad-7019

Neither SPY or VOO are better returning than Berkshire

The137

SPY is a ticker, and a version of the SP500 which is the biggest 500 companies in the stock market combined. Its a good view of the market as a whole The Mag7 (Magnificent 7) are the the companies absolutely dominating the market, its more of a nickname because theyve grown so big - Nvidia Meta Tesla Amazon Google Microsoft Apple The SP is a fairly constantly rotating list while the mag7 is not. If Tesla continues to fail we may start hearing about the mag 6 instead, or if btc hits a new all time high we may start hearing about the mag8 with the addition of something like MSTR.

Longjumping-Bonus723

SPY will crash BTC

looneytones8

Clearly you have never seen SPY priced in bitcoin because it’s been crashing for the past 16 years. Neat.

sreaka

Fuck Berkshire, they don't even pay a dividend, just buy SPY or VOO if you want a better returning ETF without the need to lick Warren's butt. Sees Candy, nothing says Boomer more than that.

WasKnown

Not sure how that's relevant at all but it's an undeniable fact that ETH has tanked at a time when the SPY and BTC are up significantly year over year. You can look at other assets too, like gold. A good asset over time will trend up. ETH has not.

Moist_Bass_5823

QQQ STF and SPY coming

biba8163

> ETH performed second best at the current time. So you only want to compare ETH to Shitcoins that lose money? ETH has an annualized return of 3.3% over a ~7 year period. It's a toxic non-performing asset. You could have mad more money in U.S. Treasuries staking fiat at zero risk than holding ETH. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 24.93% | QQQ | 16.82% | GOLD | 13.26% | SPY | 9.91% | ETH | 3.3%

BitcoinBaller420

Good point. I looked into this more and found this WSJ article from 2020 talking about Tesla not being included due to the committee: [https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-tesla-was-left-out-of-the-s-p-500-11599579707](https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-tesla-was-left-out-of-the-s-p-500-11599579707) The article improves my "at least 500m in SPY" estimate, ballparking the funds that passively track the index at 11 trillion dollars at that time. It means Strategy inclusion would result in 10 figures of price-insensitive buying, which Saylor will turn one way or another into bitcoin. Good to know not to bet the farm they will be included at the first opportunity though.

BitcoinBaller420

And still 20% below all time highs. Only 6-7% away from Strategy joining the S&P500. When this happens, It will enter the index already inside the top 100 companies... index funds are going to need to buy a lot of shares to balance the index. Total S&P500 market cap \~50T. The SPY ETF alone is about $500m market cap, or roughly 1% of the equity of these companies. If a $100b company enters the index, it creates $1b of price-insensitive demand for the shares. just from SPY alone. If that demand drives up the share price, they need to buy even more. Yet another fly-wheel driving bitcoin adoption engages.

BitcoinBaller420

Judging by the volume data, lots of bitcoiners are taking this advice. In the week after "Liberation day" April 2nd, SPY volumes spiked 3x at least (source: marketchameleon). Bitcoin volumes don't show any obvious change during this period. Bitcoiners dgaf they refuse to panic sell. We picked up a lot more quality hodlers last cycle and they are paving the way for another big move up with this behavior.

d8_thc

[GLD + BTC vs QQQ/SPY/DXY/TLT](https://i.imgur.com/YpCOwWr.png)

dyrnwyn580

Not so fast. The correlation argument is taken from velocity, yes. But on the sixth month, the SPY is -12% while BTC is +30%. There is much more going on right now than when it was a risk on, speculative, asset.

BitcoinBaller420

SPY down 3% and falling as I write this. Bitcoin up nearly 3% day over day.  Let’s keep some perspective here this is an incredible Bitcoin performance. 

fresh_start0

Tech socks annihilated SPY down 3% DXY down 1% Euro up 1% Bitcoin and gold up 3% It's begun.....

biba8163

Reminder to NOOBs that BTC behaves completely different than other classes. BTC zig zags from ~0.5 to ~0.75 correlation to the S&P and NASDAQ to spiking to negative correlation every few months which is oftentimes when it makes its biggest moves up or down. - July 2024. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC tanks. - January 2024. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC pumps big. - October 2023. BTC has a NEGATIVE correlation to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. BTC pumps big BTC is Digital Gold but it does not follow Gold. BTC closely follows the stock market until it doesn't. BTC divergence is why it has outperformed the S&P, NASDAQ, Gold over long periods (7-years) even when it has been a large marketcap of over $250 Billion. - BTC is THE diversifier for out-performance in your portfolios. - Shitcoins are Toxic Assets for under-performance in your portfolios. Shitcoins have a parasitical dependency on BTC, historically have ~0.90 correlation with BTC, under-perform BTC, under-perform S&P/NASDAQ, under-perform Gold, under-perform Treasuries and most of the successful ones are guaranteed to make you lose money. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 22.19% | QQQ | 16% | GOLD | 11.3% | SPY | 10.8% | ETH | 1.1% | ADA | -8.5% | XRP | -9.25%

fubar_giver

3 months since the new administration and SPY is down 13% DOW is down 11%, BTC is down 18%. It's holding better than most crypto and certainly some individual stocks, overall its not looking much better.

warriorlynx

That's an argument I don't necessarily accept, it's a speculative store of value at this point in time, it's best hedge is clearly against altcoins especially during a bear market. There is some correlation with other assets/index funds like SPY. I have yet to see hard evidence that it's a hedge against anything else

Just-a-demon

If you have a 6 month emergency fund of savings tucked in a HYSA, then by all means; go 100% into BTC. You could also simultaneously DCA the SPX/SPY just to be safe

WasKnown

Even if 99% of SPY gains from the last 12 months were from 1 stock, US equities - that stock still would have severely outperformed ETH. Also, BTC is definitely a risk asset and it’s up significantly as well. I am not saying ETH never has another moment (just look at XRP) but I am saying that holding ETH was undeniably a mistake for the 2023/2024 bull market.

qwertydcf

no im basing it of SPY that lost 100 points in 2 month on the day 18 Feb. Thats insane and a major buying opportunity imo. You can do whatever u want, fomo buy in, you will never catch the bottom.

qwertydcf

Everybody here only cares about profits. But lets be real, SPY is down 100 points since Feb 18, this year. So 2 months. Thats insane. I say it agian 100 points, IN 2 fucking MONTHS. Could it drop more yes. Could this be the best buying opportunity in years YES. So why pussy out. And i know this is crypto blabla SPY = Bitcoin / they move the same.

biba8163

> The imbecile mindset... to buy more eth I wholeheartedly agree with this take - ETH is an non-performing asset mid/long term. If dummies want to make LESS money taking MORE risk, than ETH is an excellent choice - If you want to earn more than ETH at ZERO risk, then you can stake FIAT which guarantee ~5% returns. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame with relatively large marketcaps* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 21.19% | QQQ | 16% | GOLD | 11.3% | SPY | 10.8% | ETH | 1.21%

Evanbm2003

Yeah I see what you’re saying, but it is still so impressive that BTC is holding up this well. If this stuff had happened like 6 years ago BTC would have dropped like 50% when the SPY goes down 15%. We’ll see what happens in the future. But hey, QQQ is down -7.00% this month and BTC is up +0.08% 👀

Dazzling_Marzipan474

Ya I have incredibly bad timing sometimes. I also sold my last SPY stock put on 4/1. The day before You know who crashed the market. 😂 Can't complain tho, made a little money.

qwertydcf

Bitcoin is nothing special anymore, just another stock. It moves exactly like SPY, and is slow as fuck. 40mins for 1 transaction. There are sooo much more better coins in the Market. Whoever says othervise never tryd to buy anything with Bitcoin. 2025 and have to wait 30-45 mins for my btc to come.

biba8163

I am not saying gold is not going to outperform but I wouldn't bet on gold. Gold has artificial scarcity. Gold production tends to increase to meet demand/price. - After gold peak in ~1980, Gold prices were down for over 20+ years. - After gold peak again in ~2011, gold again was down for 7-8 years. You're buying gold now, there is a good chance you are buying at or near the peak again. It takes time investment, mining, infrastructure to be put in place to meet demand/price and after that gold prices staganate for years. Still, since BTC became a large cap with over $250 Billion marketcap in 2017/18, it still has outperformed gold by a lot over a ~7 year time frame. - Comparing 2017/18 ATHs of BTC and ETH over a ~7 year time period which is a good reference point because the S&P 500 doubles every 7 years providing an annual return of ~10%. - BTC outperforms S&P 500 and Gold - ETH is absolute dogshit performance with 1.5% annualized return lagging even U.S Treasuries - Alts. XRP was the only other large cap Alt that reached $100 Billion marketcap, and it's returns a negative annual return over long time frames. **Since the 2017/18 ATHs, 7+ year time frame* (Stock Market doubles every 7 years, Rule of 72) | | Annual Return| |:-----------|:------------:| | BTC | 21% | QQQ | 15% | GOLD | 11% | SPY | 10% | ETH | 1.5% | XRP | -9%

MixtapeNostalgia

Average annual return for BTC is something like 80% and that is just since 2015. Fuck SPY lmfao. The dollar is dead. If you care more about SPY than BTC you're already living in the past and are beyond delusional.

mdnz

50% conservative, lmao That’s around 6 times as much as a regular fund like SPY. Try 12-15% if you want to be conservative and that’s already pretty aggressive at these prices I’d say.

xx123234

These posts keep getting more weird YTD SPY - 9% BTC - 14% Gold + 22%

mollylovelyxx

This volatility is pitiful and trash. This asset used to move so much. Literally SPY moves more than BTC now. Someone tag me if we have a 10% day up or down I don’t even care at this point. Until then I won’t even look at the markets and am more interested in watching the PGA masters game than this (I never watch golf)

SocialSuicideSquad

Survive yes. But in a real recession (2020 did not count) I expect BTC to perform far worse than the indices... Even in 2020 it drilled twice as hard as SPY.

SocialSuicideSquad

Resilience during the COVID crash? The fuck you say From Feb highs BTC drilled ***70%*** while SPY dropped 33%. It has pumped like crazy on low interest rates and cash injection, but it's never seen a real recession... The next year or three should be interesting.

b1mm3rl1f3

Yes I think BTC officially decouples in 2025. The first signal was the Chinese yuan pouring into BTC as it falls to lowest levels in 18y (BTC reserves on exchanges are already extremely low). Then I caught a tweezer top on the $DJI 12M + a climbing 10y + imploding equity market just shows the extreme stress. Then we printed a great CPI this morning with 0 response to the data. Doesn’t add up. These huge stock rallies are also classic bear market behaviours. I think ppl will think the buying opportunity is in stocks, when they drop, but it isn’t. $SPY won’t see another ATH for a long, long time imo. They have to save bonds therefore stocks must crash and BTC flies

qwertydcf

You just know something is really wrong when SPY is just a pump and dump, like a memecoin. This will end so bad, please one big more pump so i can sell this shit.

Capable-Commission-3

Bro…Even now with the Orange Crash SPY is up 109% over five years. Google is up 176%, Amazon is up 95%, Microsoft is up 142%, Philip Morris is up 101%. It’s fairly easy to guarantee 100% returns in five years. Just have to average 20% a year for five years. Berkshire Hathaway has averaged 56% gains annually for the last 25 years and over 33% annually for the last five years. These aren’t obscure, insider picks. These are well-known stocks that are in every 401k in America. 1,000% returns is much more ambitious. Few companies can do it and it’s not a sure thing. Nvidia is the most well-known to have recently done it, being up over 1,300% the last five years. But TSM and BABA, I suspect, will both 8-10x in the next five years.