SPY

rkquinn

While it’s a near certainty Fed will cut 25bps it’s not unheard of for their decision to buck market sentiment. In Sept 2008 the Fed shocked the market to the downside by holding rates steady, when markets had already priced in cuts as a near certainty. VIX is up sharply this week diverging from its normal correlation with SPY. This suggests hedge funds and other institutional investors are buying puts as insurance for their longs. They would not engage in this if something “is already a fact.” Even if downside risk is small, it’s present to protect your positions against it when managing institutional money.

Outrageous_Word_999

Invest in something safe like QQQ or SPY. Use the proceeds to pay off the loan, profit like 5%.

VariatCA

See my response below to Ghost, but in short it certainly looks like the stock markets and gold have priced in their expectation of a September rate cut (and gold's expectation of inflation / potential incoming volatility). But BTC retraced that rate-cut euphoria almost immediately, while stocks held their momentum after the Jackson Hole speech. Since that August 23-24 retrace, BTC has basically only aligned in percentage growth parallel to the gains made by SPY/Nasdaq. It's impossible to guess if stocks are trying to front-run 1-2 more 2025 rate cuts for now, though.

VariatCA

It sure isn't "priced-in" to BTC, considering how the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22nd went. SPY/Nasdaq recover-rallied when the Fed hinted at answering Unemployment worries with a rate cut, and BTC immediately withdrew the correlation. Stocks are absolutely front-running the rate cut from the looks of SPY's recovery & rally since that day, which is precisely why I wouldn't be surprised if investors start rotating back out to BTC/crypto assets once rate-cuts are confirmed this week. Even most crypto mining/treasury stocks are absolutely flying while BTC (and Eth) are stagnant. That liquidity is chasing the wave in stocks for now. My money is on fireworks for crypto by end-of-week.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Spirited_Syllabub488 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1nhon2l/btc_ml_model_13000_points_in_last_12_signals_60/ I’ve been working on a BTC machine learning model that’s been running live for the last couple of months. It gave around **+13,000 points across the last 12 signals (about 60 days)**. A few details about how it works: * Trades are held for about **4 days.** * Entry and exit happen at **fixed predefined times** — no chasing candles. * There are **no hard stop-loss or take-profit levels**. Instead, I work with net results across trades and calculated risk. * The system avoids unnecessary leverage. That way, even if a trade goes against me, I’m not risking a capital blow-up. Why am I lending it out if it’s profitable? The honest answer: **I don’t have the capital size to live a luxury life off just this model’s returns.** It performs well, but the compounding is slow at my current size. So I figured if others can benefit from it for a minimal fee, I can grow alongside it — while keeping the integrity of the system intact. This isn’t a promotional pitch. I just thought some people here might find it interesting to see a practical, systematic approach that isn’t based on hype or overleveraging. Also the real interested traders can have a trial before moving forward. No strategy has promised return every single month, but this strategy has not given loss in a single quarter for the past 3 years. We have to at least trade it for 2-3 months to see it playing out and beating the SPY. If anyone’s curious about the methodology or results, I’m happy to discuss. Also users can see the stats here - [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yZGuFUf8XecgE2kel1zahbt6JrvzUeBR5LrxyOvYOyg/edit?usp=drive\_link](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yZGuFUf8XecgE2kel1zahbt6JrvzUeBR5LrxyOvYOyg/edit?usp=drive_link) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

VariatCA

With how BTC has moved against the stock market for the last month since the August PPI report, it seems like investors are trying to scrape together all the liquidity they can to ride the hype of the stock market's rate-cut anticipation before the FOMC meeting this week. If the market gets their wish and rate cuts materialize, there's a terrific chance that liquidity from stocks begin to flow elsewhere looking for the next wave to ride. BTC is a prime target, considering not only its distance from the August ATH but its relative lag compared to the SPY/Nasdaq's growth since then. TL;DR if/when the Fed cuts the rate, it may be a very intense month for crypto's growth.

LinoStar69

NASDAQ new ATH, SPY about to open at ATH too, crypto 🤡

parota_kurma

Don’t want to dox myself. But my company offers PCRA with my Schwab 401k that I basically use for buying SPY, FETH & ARKB.

Classic_Flower_735

So its not really the NUMBER it can grow to in fiat price it is really the VALUE or buying power it grows to....which gets wierd to quantify. Maybe one uses gold except maybe gold drops to its industrial metal value of $50/ounce or so? Or oil? Or shares of SPY? Or some index of basic consumer goods? How to you even guage pure actual value if the fiats have all gone to zero?

ilovesaintpaul

I dunno. My SOL I bought at $90 i just sold yesterday for over a 2x gain. That's what we're gonna get now. Way better than QQQ or SPY.

ManOfDZ

Investing in SPY feels like watching paint dry Investing in 401jk feels like watching Star Wars ROTS for the first time

SnooEagles2610

25% BTC, 25% SPY, 25% QQQ, 25% Individual Stocks. That combines = 50% of total investments. The other 50% is Real Estate (rentals).

stellarfirefly

Back in 1994 I bought my "dream car" at the age of 24 for $35,000 though the payments with interest totaled $41,500. (I had modest dreams.) I calculated that had I invested that amount in SPY instead of paying for a car, then I would have over $600,000 as of the end of 2024. Instead, I have a meager $40,000 that I am slowly growing again. Do I regret it? No... because I had my dream car at 24.

quicksilverth0r

Bitcoin is a investment vehicle, no more, no less. The investing sub doesn’t even consider funds or stocks outside SPY investments, let alone any other asset or asset class.

69dumbredditname

Couple points of clarification: ***"Sure, he made a 14k profit by investing 12k,"*** This is unrealized profit unless he sold his BTC. It could drop back down to $30K later today and wipe that out. ***"I just feel like it’s better to be safe and invest in big conglomerates like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft."*** Single stocks aren't "safe". TSLA is a great example. People who owned it at it's ATH of $479 9 months ago were having a very merry Christmas, but 3 months later it had plummeted to $262 and now sits around $333. If you want a safer investment, consider an S&P 500 ETF like VOO or SPY that expose you to a broad range of stocks. Or, if you're young, a target-date fund that will adjust for risk as you age. Everyone's risk tolerance is different and you may have a lower tolerance than your friend. That being said, a diversified portfolio is the best choice for most people and BTC has quickly become a part of that. I have reallocated more to BTC in 2025 due to the turbulence in the stock market, but it's still a small part of my overall portfolio because it is risky and I'm old.

LinoStar69

SPY pump, BTC bleed

Msn435

SPY

cheese20202

I think 5 years is a fair snapshot at a recent market cycle. I can pick a 10 year window frame for you, in September 2015, SPY was $191 and today in September $644, then over the past 10 years, SPY increased 12.92%+1.7% dividends=14.84% a year annually. And it's about the same in the 15 year recent window. but my main point is if the market can increase an annual at 15% a year, then why can't a volatile asset such as BTC can't?

cheese20202

From September 4, 2020, SPY was at $350, today on September 3, 2025 it is at $644. INCLUDING dividends, that's $12.97%+1.5%=14.66% annually over the past recent 5 years

taboothrushe

If you want to break event DCA into SPY. If you want to actually accumulate something it's tech stocks and crypto.

MakCapital

Most things launch on Solana first regardless of asset type. This is where most trade. Recently popular stocks with SPY came to Solana first, and now private securities like OpenAI, Discord, SpaceX are trading on Solana. Right as a token swap on Jupiter or Phantom. Everything happens on Solana and Hyperliquid. Memes included.

USD_Memecoin

New here, just want to introduce myself. I love BTC and I love MSTR as a leveraged BTC accretion machine. Personally not betting on expecting SPY inclusion but would be pleasantly surprised. I believe BTC still has a ways to go this year, but cautious about how sentiment could react to an unknown macro macro event that's obviously not priced in. Here's what has me nervous though... the consensus from what I'm seeing is for a q4 run up. Will Bitcoin really allow everyone to predict this and be right? I don't think so lol.

LinoStar69

SPY down -0.7% pre market... not looking good

Agreeable_Cow5884

100% agree my friend. I think BTC will eventually have a steady YoY Growth of ~20% After adoption. Which is still significantly more than SPY.

rsheshe

Ehhh if I'm investing in crypto, im risk on. If I wanted boring investments, I'd buy SPY. This has been a great year for BTC/eth so far. Usually Oct / Nov sucks when the whole year has Is there something going on this cycle that makes people feel like we won't have a great Oct/Nov?

MengerianMango

When I say pros, I mean like Two Sigma, JS, PDT, HRT, Optiver, etc. Data driven statarb and market makers. I work in the industry. There are strategies that work. The data costs run around mid-5-figure sums per month even for a startup. The reason publicly accessible hedge funds underperform is two fold. Public funds don't need to beat the market to sell well in their niche. They're selling diversification. Achieving a sharpe of 1 with 0 correlation to SPY is plenty good enough. Beyond that, the strategy is not worth offering publicly. The best are all ran prop.

Dry-Caterpillar9862

As everyone here is joking, this is objectively false. If you are retiring next year, sure it's true. But for the vast majority of us, we will be just fine. It's a far better investment than VOO or SPY imo. And even if not, we were screwed either way. But I seriously doubt the last part.

TheAscensionLattice

"As of the latest available data, the total assets for specific large-cap ETFs are substantial, with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) holding $731.596 billion, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) holding $661.318 billion, and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) holding $659.940 billion."

MakeLifeHardAgain

It is possible that Tariffs will crash the economy. And spike the unemployment rate. if SPY drops by 30%, crypto should have a sell off too

BerryImpossible412

Keep emergency fund of 3-6 months in a HYSA. Put the rest in BTC if you can stomach a 50% drop and not sell. If she’s not all in, buy 0.1 BTC and the rest VOO or SPY and dollar cost average more to make the wife happy in the mean time so your ayleast keeping pace with inflation while you get her to watch videos to understand bitcoin and hopefully she becomes more risk adverse. When that 0.1 BTC becomes half your portfolio give her a nice big, “we would have this much if you listened to me.” If you are unsuccessful on converting her.

scwt

The SP500 is also heavily weighted towards the technology sector, so if that's what you're trying to do, there are better ways than splitting your investments between QQQ and SPY. I'm just saying, if you want to add BTC, and you want to more or less keep your current contributions, it would make sense to cut from the two positions that overlap.

metamorphosis

I can't believe this is the most upvoted answer . >125,000 is a juicy time to pull out, If you bought in 2009 a juicy time to pull out was when BTC hit 100, then 1,000, then, 10,000, 50,000, etc . If you had 1000 BTCs, when it was $10 (a value of only 10K) , make no mistake you most likely cached out when BTC hit 10,000 as bet value would be selling only 30% will make you a millionaire. You will be stupid not too. Unless you were already rich So, BTC whales are indeed absolutely rich. Some are completely dormant and some , as with the stock market , are using advanced algos to make more money. Then these days there are institutions who might use BTC as hedge. Just observe SPY or QQQ , or S&P 500 15 min chart vs Bitcoin during trading hours, just for example from today.... .the pattern is almost identical. Granted volume can be different, but sentiment is almost identical. There are exceptions in some days but for most part are the same. One whale doesn't influence the price, but few whales can indeed trigger algos and sell offs. Then there are market makers and people using leverages...you can say gamblers . Just here on this dub, day in day out there is at least one topic that mentions liquidation during price movements. You can earn an insane amount of money if you time it right and price moves favorably. A 5x leverage on 1BTC can you earn you millions of price swings Look at the volume for TRUMP coin. 24h trading volume is 500 milion. You would think no one is an idiot to trade this coin but clearly someone is buying (and selling? ) These are market makers.... making sure that you don't place an obvious high leverage short and liquidating positions that can make you a millionaire with few 1000s. In short . There is a big Casino out there where people are getting getting against each other . Trading daily. A retail bag holder is just that . A bag holder. Hence the sentiment that whales are not rich until they "pull out" .

srg0pdrs4

Lol... Jfc. This is why we can't have mean rips...a $2k drop is a "wtf is this" post. Giant pussies should just go invest in SPY.

danperegrine

0.04 is roughly what literally anyone with the most conservative, Bitcoin-neutral, $100k portfolio should have as a bare minimum. \~5% is the recommended allocation for someone who does not have a strong-BTC thesis and simply wants to extract the minimal conservative benefit of the superior Sharpe Ratio Bitcoin exposure offers to any benchmark that that doesn't include 5% BTC allocation. (eg, 100% SPY vs 95% SPY 5% BTC; etc). Now, if 0.04 BTC is 100% of your current portfolio that's a different question. As to long term value. A true Bitcoin hyper-maximalist would argue that what Bitcoin is actually doing is demonetizing all other assets. Essentially, capturing the monetary premium of everything that isn't Bitcoin. A house has a utility value - but the price of a house reflects both the utility value and the fact that it's an investment - the difference is a 'monetary premium'. This is also true of productive assets (stocks & bonds), precious metals (gold being the obvious example - only 20% or less of Gold's market price reflects its industrial and commercial non-monetary utility), etc. In 2020 McKinsey estimated a 'global balance sheet' of $1540 Trillion. If we imagine 20% of all assets to be utility and 80% to be monetary (to simplify, it's probably more skewed than that give how much of that asset base was actually just money) then the total addressable market of Bitcoin is a 2020 USD adjusted $1232 Trillion which would correspond to a BTC value (2020 dollars) of $0.58 per Satoshi or 1 BTC being equal to $58,000,000 or your 0.04 BTC being worth $2,320,000 in 2020 equivalent dollars. So, if you imagine that scenario and you think $2.3 Million is enough to retire on, then go for it. Or, if you think that scenario probably overshoots the potential market, or if $2.3 million is insufficient for your needs, then you might want more.

PeachScary413

Pretty much zero liquidity underneath compared to something like SPY, QQQ, Tesla or whatever.. a single whale dumping a couple hundred of millions of dollars will crash it but if it was SPY you wouldn't even see the ticker move.

Chartlense

Smart approach… Start with mastering risk with one non-negotiable rule: never risk more than 1% of your capital on a single trade. Only after you've done that, pick one market (like SPY), one simple strategy, and paper trade it for months to prove you can be consistent. For the vets here: which of those pillars did you learn the hard way?

BasedCarrotMan

Instead of $SPY, consider $VOTE. It's the same index, but the fund appoints environmentally responsible board members.

RepresentativeKick66

Study economics before you study Bitcoin. Invest in SPY before BTC. Bitcoin is a gambling game.

ConfuciusYorkZi

Of course, spy is 500 companies, how many companies actually change the world? Maybe 10-20? The rest are zombies. BTC is infinite. Its the best store of value ever. SPY is pegged to the Dollar, 1 BTC = 1 BTC, forever... Did you know that 1 BTC now = 1 Day of Miner Supply in 2060? The risk is 0 compared to SPY/VOO.

BitcoinBaller420

I'm sure there's truth in your words. I'm not sure I believe that super successful people are also highly secretive. What's the upside to telling people you love about great investments? Seeing people you love succeed? Seems like a big upside. There is a lot of secrecy in this sub it seems, but rich people aren't hard to find. Anyone who buys a big house or a fancy car announces they are rich. If you're kidnapped, SPY stock liquidates just as easily as IBIT. Sure, hodl'd coins can move quickly, but in the famous kidnapping story, they held the guy for 2 weeks. I prefer not to live in fear, but I understand people think differently. Good luck to you.

towelheadass

& 0DTEs on the SPY are... Its all in the approach, you can make anything gambling.

Pat_McCrotch

v-shape back to where we were 2 hours ago like nothing happened lmaooo wild move. SPY still slumping while bitcoin runs a quick squeeze in both directions

SusanForeman

That's all well and good but that's kind of meaningless when people who bought 4 years ago were told the same thing, and they finally got back to break-even. DCA and "forget" about a SPY investment 4 years ago would have 46% gains already, and be much, much more stable.

PreparationNervous92

lmao. yes, and go back to your SPY and ETF stonks.

NarrowArtist

Same boat here, my SO and I are 6 figures in student loan debt with low paying jobs, even with our degrees. I did what I was told by the system and got cooked. The interest on hers alone is over 1/3 of her income. I basically decided I’m doomed if I keep doing what the system tells me and now I’m putting all my extra money into BTC and TSLA. Might be a foolish mistake but f it you live once and this is the only possible path to freedom I have found. My friends that make 4X my salary tell me to just invest in SPY but with the low income/small shovel I don’t see a chance for me following that path. 

RepresentativeKick66

SPY

ThinCrusts

Soo we're gonna slowly bleed till the US market reopens tomorrow morning and hope SPY keeps chugging along? Europoors and dumplings ain't gonna help us pump or even hold the line this time

meshreplacer

Works great trading SPY ETF. TACO trades are phenomenal.

ElPeroTonteria

Yea, we all did that… some learned faster than others…. You’re already trading a super volatile asset, it moves more in a day than SPY will in a month. Do you really need leverage here? Wait for it to suddenly drop, dead cat then buy around that reversal price…

foxroadblue

It’s a 0.8% increase over previous ATH. Literally who cares? SPY and QQQ are making daily new ATHs too

JSunshine11

I’m on my 4th 401k loan. Spy hits highs, I take a loan and buy BTC dips. Btc runs, I sell no more than 30% to repay to the loan when SPY is hitting lows. When SPY is low and I can’t sell BTC to pay the loan I hit it hard from my paycheck. Repeat. I like it juicy.

VariatCA

I'll follow up next time I chat with about it and float that as well. I had mentioned just DCA'ing what he could into the SPY as another option, but a 529 would also be a terrific choice. Appreciate the advice mate, cheers!

riscten

> buy 1/3 bonds, 1/3 SPY, 1/3 reestate/gold etfs 🤮

discussionandrespect

You don’t need a FA. Just keep DCA bitcoin and DCA SPY gg

sssssseeeeee

No. They aren't people that are interested in understanding the changing monetary order and economic landscape. They are salesmen that sell safe products that likely wont even beat SPY. I had a conversation with one, and asked him about bitcoin, and he said, "I just dont invest in things I dont understand, and dont advise my clients to either" WHAT!? Have you heard of Blackrock, they have the worlds biggest pool of assets under management, you know what their fastest growing asset class is over the last year? BITCOIN! GFY if you're in the financial advice industry and you "dont understand" bitcoin, fucking learn it, you dimwit. As for you, If you want to diversify, you dont need some FA to tell you to sell the "risky" bitcoin and buy some bonds and money markets, just sell 30% of you btc (pay taxes) and buy 1/3 bonds, 1/3 SPY, 1/3 reestate/gold etfs. The FA will just try and sell you insurance and shit you have to pay fees on. If BTC is all you have and you feel its risky, ask ChatGPT what to do with 30-40% of you stack to reduce risk.

Dettol-tasting-menu

Jokes aside, I feel that butters are actually not the burger flippers type. If you’re down on your luck and get stuck in a dead end job, maybe you’d be more likely to try new things to get out. I sort of feel that the butters are the traditionally do-well type, the TradFi bro, “well educated”, the VOO, SPY, investment properties kind who think they are doing so well (or well enough) that they don’t need to learn anything else. Their arrogance comes from the fact that they’re doing ok, but also at the same time feel super salty as they see bitcoiner (who they think of as idiots) are doing exponentially better than them in just a few years. They feel violated because in their eyes bitcoin idiots do not deserve the gains, it’s just gambling and dumb luck, and whatever paper gains we made are the result of some market manipulation or fake news. Their saltiness and pettiness means that they simply cannot accept that there is now a new form of money being adopted by the world and is leave them behind as we speak. The resentment over there is actually my entertainment. Too bad I’m banned, I’d love to check in on them and throw in a few infuriating comments from time to time.

MakCapital

Fundamentals would require the chain to scale which scales revenue. Currently sits near 0 revenue with near 0 activity. No return to investors without activity and scale. Defilama clearly shows highest earning chains and ecosystems. This is fundamentals. A single app on Solana brings in more than multiple lifetimes of the entire chain of Cardano. SPY, Nvidia, Discord, SpaceX, or whatever you want trade on Solana. Hyperliquid does more in buybacks from revenue in one week than Cardano investors will ever see. ADA is now a meme bet off ADA/ETH getting ridiculously low. At some point that ETH money will take the trade. Maybe. That doesn't mean you long hold it all the way to the bottom. Insane opportunity cost.

ElPeroTonteria

No, you cant. No BTC, No ETFs, No MSTR. Might even get forced out of SPY and a few other companies going forward. Look, $1m could solve all my problems and set me up really well, but I don't want $1m and not be able to save that in BTC in any way. No way, Ive got more patience than that.

Additional_Bar_6601

Appreciate it, guys — I was thinking of going heavier on SPY and QQQ, but your insights really made me want to invest more into BTC instead.

Ok_Gap_3412

Well he also thinks SPY being up 0.2% means it’s “ripping”

amgoblue

How about Bitcoin? Being that youre in that sub and all. Or maybe Lightning? There is only one. Everything else, literally, is a shitcoin. From crypto to SPY to USD. Id say bitcoin is a pretty revolutionary project that has a genuine, real-world use case that isn't just speculation. GTFOH with any other shitcoin bull shit.

BtcUpMyBooty

Probably SPY like every other shmuck

OlleKo777

50/50 SPY and Bitcoin

grapedog

I'd just have more in my brokerage which tracks the SPY... the SPY has had a great decade or so. AFTER inflation, it's around 10% growth year over year for the past decade... which is really good. Not fantastic, but very good. Dependable.

foxroadblue

Didn’t say it was bad, just boring. QQQ also outperforms SPY yet no one is excited about that either

avance70

SPY -2% "the world is ending!" BTC -5% "bitcoin isn't volatile anymore"

BitcoinBaller420

The S&P500 has been down 5 days in a row, down over 2% in that time. Similar to bitcoin. Hawkish comments from the Fed chair are likely driving the move. Bitcoin isn't going down, the dollar is going up, see the DXY chart for dollar buying power relative to other currencies. The fact that bitcoin isn't down 3x SPY is another good sign on the road from "risk on" triple-levered asset, to store of value. We're still early.

veegaz

All money from that SPY selling will flow into crypto, everytime. Rinse and repeat

Dorkasteri

This is not even bad considering how much SPY is falling. Chill out.

Over-Boysenberry-452

Because SPY

WelderAffectionate92

No need to be so aggressive - calculating returns over a period of time with a known CAGR is simple. Oftentimes it’s estimated using historic context I.e SPY as a rough average 8% annual returns. My question is what CAGR could be used to calculate possible future returns for BTC or if it’s even possible given the new, volatile nature of the asset (and asset class). Again - no need to be aggressive or act like a know it all, simply asking for clarification would be suffice.

jonoghue

If I HAVE to spend it I'd buy SPY shares for diversification. I have zero desire for anything that costs anywhere near that much money.

OriginalFluff

Justifies me never investing into SPY but I also play volatile stocks lol. I’d say the one caveat is that increased money supply is likely what allows SPY to essentially grow forever, so it is objectively better than cash FWIW. What tool did you use to analyze the data?

evgeniy_pp

You’re correct. I’ve just put SPY vs USM2 and since 1993 (the oldest year available) SPY +1,348.98, USM2 +544.05%. Not as bad as it was shown before. But if we calculate CAGR (SPY 8.71%, USM2 5.99%), and use M2 as the inflation rate, then it turns out S&P500 index (dividends included) only returns 2.72% after inflation for the last 32 years. Not impressive tbh.

cazzeo

The index usually doesn't include dividends, which are a substantial portion of returns. You'd need to compare against SPY or the SP total return index.

Technician_These

My point is if instead of having a Roth you just buy SPY and hold till you retire, you never have to pax tax till you retire, you are not subject to the minimum withdrawal, and if you have to pull out early there is no penalty. I fail to see the advantage of the Roth in this case

cryptoripto123

Roth IRA or Traditional 401k is really just about pre vs post tax implications. Either way both have some tax benefits so you should do it, and yes buying SPY is fine. I recommend people take advantage of these tax advantaged accounts in addition to buying Bitcoin. I just think people here are so hyperfocused on Bitcoin that they throw any common sense personal financial advice out the window.

RamoneBolivarSanchez

If they hold SPY they already have exposure via companies like Coinbase. These Buttcoiner idiots already own Bitcoin and they don’t realize it.

vohemiq

Don't listen to amateurs, use this: [https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals](https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals) Pros use data driven approaches and confirm confluence with fundamentals and important news; in this line of thought I also think that some underrated tools is using other (macroeconomic) symbols, namely, $DXY, $SPY, $CPC, $BTCEUR, $TOTAL; why? Because: \- $DXY; when dollar goes up, $BTC goes down, thus when dollar goes down $BTC goes up and the intensity of this movement is directly proportional to $DXY and $BTCDOM \- $SPY; $BTC is significantly correlated to the american market, when $SPY goes up, $BTC typically goes up and viceversa \- $CPC; since $BTC is significantly correlated to the american market, you can use the total put call ratio to gauge the reversals; when $CPC tops, $BTC bottoms, and when $CPC bottoms, $BTC tops; we haven't bottomed out $CPC yet... \- $BTCEUR; this is a more realistic view of $BTC price action without dollar fluctuations, so movements here tend to show the actual picture of $BTC value \- $TOTAL; same approach as above, but encompassing the whole crypto picture; paired with $CPC this will allow you to determine wether we've reached a local top in $BTC or an actual $TOP in the whole crypto market Be mindful that you can always swing short too, so instead of buying you can also try to go short... I don't think it is time to short yet...

BinaryPatrickDev

Completely agree in diversification. I would just go SPY vs a bitcoin ETF. Again why buy the ETF when you can own the real thing.

UC_DiscExchange

You could have just invested in SPY and tripled your money and instead investors are down over 95% over 7-8 years. Bold strategy cotton. Let's see how it plays out.

Riflurk123

It will slowly get closer to the levels of SPY over time as we won't be able to have these insane gains we had in the last years since inception

My5thAccountSoFar

Still, historically outpaces SPY.

theatomicstandard

Dump before the recession hits. BTC is not a hedge against SPY. When stock prices fall, so too will Bitcoin prices. Even if you are a full Bitcoin Maximalist cult member, wait 6 months to a year to buy when the recession hits, and then just buy more at a "discount."

TroubleInMyMind

And SPY in EUR is down from Jan 20th

Dettol-tasting-menu

Gold is a mid level boss, not the ultimate big boss. Ultimate final boss is “all monetised assets” - things that aren’t money or savings but are used as money and savings - real estates, bonds, stocks… look at SPY, VOO and Mag7, or $100m apartments - they are just modern day savings account. Bitcoin is going to eat them up like Pac-Man.

supercoolguy54

Same way no one is talking about how SPY is over 600. That’s fucking insanity. But it happened quietly and with a new ATH becoming an every day thing, nobody cares anymore.

theMonkeyTrap

Bitcoin is still a speculative investment. I'd put about 40% in BTC, about 40% in S&P 500 etf like VOO/SPY etc and use the remainder 20% in muni bonds or dividend stocks depending upon state of market. I'd also look at my debts and possibly use the 20% portion to SLOWLY clear out the high interest debts like credit cards etc.

ElPeroTonteria

people get rekt every day on the SPY... Dumbasses gon' dumbass...what's your point?

bitusher

There is a distinction between ownership and control . For example the largest Bitcoin ETF , Blackrock's IBIT has 735,741 BTC now https://bitcointreasuries.net/etfs-and-exchanges/ishares-bitcoin-trust They don't own these bitcoin , and don't even directly control it either as those bitcoin are held by multiple custodians with them acting as Asset managers . The legal ownership is spread across many individuals and companies who own shares in that ETF Another example is a Publicly traded company like Microstrategy, Inc. that has 607,770 BTC https://bitcointreasuries.net/public-companies/microstrategy Those Bitcoin are owned by all their shareholders and since they are listed in the QQQ ETF and soon will be listed in SPY ETF for inclusion in the SP 500 , their shares are **owned by millions of people** Saylor only has 9.9% equity in MSTR thus you could say that he only owns ~60,169 of those bitcoin

ParkerGuitarGuy

Odd? I would say pragmatic. Yes, I have had Bitcoin since around 2014. I always ask myself: “If I were to lose every penny of this, can I stomach that?” If the answer is no, then I consider diversifying a bit better. When this person says “you’re going to make 15%” I presume they’re talking about an index like the S&P500, probably looking at last year’s returns on SPY. When they say “put it in Bitcoin” for the “50%-100%”, that gives me the image of telling someone whose investments are diversified (which speaks to their risk tolerance for that amount of wealth) to move it into a single asset with greater volatility. I took the risk buying BTC and it paid off for me, but it might not for someone else. My advice is always to treat this as speculative and don’t yeet your nest egg at it.

Naillimixam48

SPY is not a stock, its the US stock market, just playing devils avocado lol

holdmysugar

What are your high conviction stocks? I'm 50% BTC, 25% SPY, 25% XLK

grapedog

It's no different with Bitcoin to say a Roth IRA that tracks the SPY500. While Bitcoin is outperforming everything, I like diversity. DCAing into Bitcoin isn't much different from my 401k, Roth, or brokerage... They all generate income pretty passively. And like all the rest along with Bitcoin, it takes money to make money. Like a 401k feels like it's crawling, even with good returns, until you hit 100k... Then it starts to move. The more money you put into any investment vehicle, the better the returns will be over time... It's how it works. But you have to have money to make more.

Major-Rabbit1252

I’d say you’d re-invest a portion. I’d liquidate 25k for living expenses, keep 25k in BTC, invest 200k in ETFs like VOO/QQQ/SPY, etc. Essentially take that 600k and diversify it

eupherein

They think anything except low cost index funds (such low returns that the management fee is scary to them) are gambling. They would all likely agree that even SPY is risky

pissingpolitics

I don't come from wealth or means, but had a small fund setup as an infant of 1k. It was all in low risk mutual funds that barely kept up with SPY. Fast forward to 2012 and I started wanting to try bitcoin as an investment strategy... however my financial illiterate parents wouldn't let me shuffle the now 5k in to my account. So I put other money in to it, traded it through highs and lows, to a total of roughly 35x my initial investment. Paid of school, a car, and 2 years of rent up front to give myself a fresh start. If I didn't need to pull from BTC to pay life events, I'd still have roughly 15 BTC today. :/ Gains are Gains though.

KamikazKid

1/6th is pretty good, I'm currently over a third BTC, and I think you really don't want to overdo it. Personally, I'm trying to move towards a three part approach, I want to be 1/3rd SPY, 1/3rd BTC, and 1/3rd cash. The cash is key, you really want some leg room to move if either the stock market starts dumping or the bitcoin top comes in soon.

Turin1973

I went top heavy into XRP. Got too many people in my ear about it to ignore. Idk what’ll happen in the end but I’m willing to gamble. And I bought some LTC ETC ADA and TRX. For ETF’s (and I know there’s some overlap), I’m in SPY QQQ VOT AAAU SLV ITA XLI SCHD VBR VOE and I’m going to start buying GBTC as part of the rotation. And then the only stock I buy is BRK/B. It’s kind of like an ETF

Time_In_The_Market

Absolutely. I only mention BTC as that’s the thread we are on but even SPY or QQQ, strongly outperforms housing appreciation.