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Make sure to get an open source btc only cold wallet. And start diversification, I would suggest something simple like SP500 or VWCE, heck I'll say it, even government bonds if you wanna spend it in the next 5 years. Preferably you should have something that you can use up in the next 5 years and something that is for the long term 10-20 years or more. A lot of people advise 100% btc but if you want to buy something in the near future (car or home or whatever) you cannot count with that, also a hassle to sell still.
Why do u think VT would be better than SP500? Curious
Never smart to put all your eggs in one basket. I’d put at least half into a broad etf/index fund. SP500 is fine. Total stock market (VTI/VTSAX) or entire world (VT) would be better IMO. But your instinct to invest a lot at a young age and to do so consistently regardless of price (dollar cost average) is right on. As a third bucket I would build up an emergency fund of cash so nothing derails your DCA strategy.
Very green? SP500 going down 0,50% at the moment
Wait till SP500 or gold retrace... now that's going to be a bloodbath
Same old garbage as usual. First you check for Trump tweets, then for US economic report releases if it was around 8:30 am est on a weekday, then check whatever SP500 is doing, and then finally if none of those look like the reason it is the good ole fallback of crypto being pumped or dumped due to manipulation
My dad told me to buy a house in his state in 2017. I told him I dont have money. I put it in ETH. I went down -95% in 2018. Since 2020 I am a multimillionaire. My NW high was 3.9M USD. Of course it has been around 700k as recently as 2025 after the Trump tariffs. Currently 818 ETH is worth 2.4M. How much have homes appreciated? 150k? I used to own stocks before I got in crypto. I doubled my money in around 4 years. I had like 30k so it wasn't much but same concept applies. Now I pay rent and it's about 25k/year. If I want to pay my housing expenses, I just need my investment to cover more than 25k/year. Once I sell my ETH, I'll never buy a house. I'll rent and keep my money invested. Rent is a rounding error. If you did math you would understand but instead, you will keep insisting on the same poor mentality that keeps everyone in debt and poor. My credit score is 830 and has been as high as 848. I never had debt. I have a bachelor's degree and I'm currently in a masters program paid by my GI bill. I wish you people could just listen to advice instead of repeating the same shit that keeps you all poor. It's better to invest in growing assets. Not necessarily crypto. The risk isn't for everyone. But say SP500 is relatively safe and grows 10% per year. How much does a property grow? And have you considered the price of your mortgage? You pay nearly double in interest, taxes and repairs. Right now my electrical panel is busted and my landlord will pay my entire monthly rent in repairing that shit. I sit back and call him to come get it fixed. The cost of opportunity is wasted when buying property. As I tell you this story, my dad bought a property worth 260k in 2017. Today it's estimated value is \~400k. And instead of having 1 400k property, I have the cash to buy almost 4 similar properties after I pay my taxes. Mind you that ETH is actually sucking right now. So what I want you to consider is the purchasing power and what offers you more purchasing power. "Owning" (you never really own. Either you pay your landlord or you pay your government, your HOA, your maintenance and repairs) or actually maximizing investing. You can talk about the history of civilization but if owning homes made people rich, no boomer would ever be poor.
Just think.. more and more are putting it on DCA and forgetting about it. More and more are being exposed to it indirectly, whether they like it or not.. because a company in their employers 401K plan SP500 has BTC exposure. Limited supply with consistent DCA? Look at Silver :D
Exactly... I was frantically buying not that long ago at 115K. Unless you think it ain't headed back above 125K this is a glorious buying chance. About a 40% increase back to 125K. Average SP500 return is about 10-12% annual. Even if you assume 3 years at 12% return, that would JUST break even with the 40% increase on BTC from current price to prior ATH
Nope unless you already are a millionaire and buy a dozen bitcoin won’t get you there sorry. Not on the short or medium term. Just see bitcoin as a ~15% CAGR asset from now on. Similar to how the SP500 is performing during bull years. You need to adopt the FIRE mindset and save most of your salary each years for 10-20 years to retire early.
You should look at the overall risk-on environment that small cap index funds are showing and forecasting. Once you understand what they mean, you wouldn't sell. We are on the verge of a massive run-up in crypto. Whenever the Russell 2000 and SP600 (not SP500) convincingly break past their previous ATH resistance that has rejected them for many years, crypto has always proceeded onto have a face-melting parabolic rally. This is because the business cycle and manufacturing index have bottomed by putting in a base. They're curling up. When that happens, small cap stocks and crypto outperform drastically. The catch is that crypto has a 7-15 week lag following the breakout of Russell 2000 and SP600. I'm using objective data, not subjective opinion about cycles.
SP500 being all-time high means everyone wins, as long as you're playing
ironic, since SP500 is up 13% over the last year versus BTC which is down 12%
I mean, yes, it's a win, better than a bank account for sure, yes. It's still a worse investment than the SP500 in that period, which was the point I did stress out and got spit at for.
Perhaps we are - in a few years we will be able to tell for sure. Meanwhile, I find the correlation between SP500 and bitcoin quite high.
AI coins are has beens. Check out fetch.ai price history, that turd is worth 10 percent of its ATH, or so. When you say you're in the eth ecosystem I thought you had knowledge in eth programming and cryptography, not that you were a bag holder. And yes, Bitcoin and Eth didn't perform well compared to SP500 stock market over the last 5 years, you're absolutely right to laugh at crypto price performance in that period.
Yep BTC, gold and SP500 for the most part.
Want to do this in the future maybe. Right now building wealth with BTC only, but I could see myself buying some SP500 in a few years.
Check $MSTR P/E ratio it was 7 last time I checked. The SP500 average is 20-25 so its way behind the average, I really like checking Strategy's fundamentals because it gives me good analysis for bitcoin, the TA and charts mean absolutely nothing.
That's kinda what I do right now, I have BTC, Canadian Bank ETF, a QQQ ETF and some SP500 related ETFs.
You don't even need to go looking around, the SP500 is up 16% on the year.
Anyone who thinks Bitcoin did not serve well over four years needs to look at sensible numbers. A passive DCA strategy is the objective way to evaluate- not some cherry picked window. And that shows Bitcoin giving a total return and IRR of 130% and 45% pa compared to 42% and 18% pa respectively for a similar SP500 strategy. And don't bleat about risk. If you don't like volatility, then you should go for bank interest.
No reason for that. People are built different. Some people want kids some people don’t. My only point is that sometimes BTC is not everything. Different people value different things at different stages in life. Even for you, one day you may want the stability of SP500. That’s “why own anything other than BTC.”
What people care about depends on their life stage. Someone that wants to build wealth should rent and invest (SP500 is enough). But for someone that wants to have a family, buying a house is important. Buying a house offers stability. Yes you may “spend more” but there is value of stability. For example: kids don’t ever have to move for 10-15 years. Can build out backyard. 100% control over asset, no evictions or issues from landlord. Buying a house is a luxury but there is value in it.
https://inflationchart.com/btc-in-bigmac/?time=1%20year BTC still did pretty badly last year according to that metric, which is why when people say that stupid 1 BTC = 1 BTC thing it is dumb. All assets are measured in relation to other things because it shows if you would have made more money in something else. You would have been ahead last year investing in the SP500 or gold instead of BTC, that’s not good. Hopefully 2026 erases this aberration.
Well, if you ask this in a BTC Reddit section, everyone would go for it. I bought BTC many times in the past, and always got back way more money that what I poured in. Time is your friend. For short period of time? No. For the long run, maybe yes. Would you buy SP500?
1. Save 3-6 months worth of total living expenses and put it in a high yield savings account. This is your safety net. You lose your job. You get into a car accident and can’t work for 3 months. This will keep you afloat until either disability kicks in or you find new work. 2. Open a Roth IRA, max it out every year and invest the money in that account into something that tracks the SP500 (VOO or others). You don’t have to get too fancy with this unless you want to learn a lot about stocks and start picking individual ones. 3. With anything excess, BTC. Crypto in general is a bumpy ride, so be ready to see big red on some days and big green on others. Keep the emotion out of it. If your excess at the end of each month is $100 (meaning you’d be spending it on something you don’t really need or you’d be ok losing it in a casino without starving or jeopardizing #1 or #2), then buy $100 of BTC each month and don’t worry about it for 10+ years.
I'm going to 2010, buying 20 BTC, shares of NVIDIA, google, and loading up on a SP500 ETF, making sure to sell everything mid december 2024, then going all in on April 10 2025, and then selling half the BTC on October 5 2025. And around then I'm pulling up the drawbridge from the moat so none of the riff raff can get too close to my castle.
I know i am in crypto subreddit but i am gonna try to be reasonable. You make a post crying about lost savings and you proceed to make up three options which are still basically gambling. Altcoin buying is still gambling. Yes you can shift the chance on your side with a bit of research, but it still is gambling. There ino 1-2 conviction plays, there is no better entry, there is no diamond hands. For a low of god, get your money out, put 80 precent to proper investments like SP500 or some stocks and then use 20 precent of it to choose from your options. If you are not gonna do this, you will be here two years later, crying exacxtly the same.
What exactly is option C here? Look, you *could* diamond hand this shit, but the reality is, all of these projects will probably never reach your entry point again. Will they pump? Maybe, but then you are in a situation sweating bullets trying to time the market. What is more likely, is they'll continue to trend downward. If I were you, I'd cut my losses, because I do think it is going to get worse for these positions, not better. You could wait three years to reach your entry point, but in that scenario, you've also blown the opportunity to get into something that will actually generate return. You lose twice waiting on this shit. Sell it all, and move it into BTC and ETH. These two assets will out preform your current position indefinitely. If you are feeling risk averse, convert to cash, and move this into a simple SP500 fund. Maybe consider a buffered position. At the end of the day, I don't think you'll benefit from holding this shit. Cut your losses.
I do the opposite: 80% BTC - 20% SP500
Even as orange pilled I am, don’t put all your investments into bitcoin. I do 50% Bitcoin (BTC), 40% SP500 and 10% shitcoins and prediction markets
Post is by: 007TheLostOne and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pupuvy/should_i_still_stay_in_crypto/ Hello all, bear with me this is going to be long, I hold ETH, BTC, and SOL. There are a few questions that have been bothering me for a while in crypto. Recently I have lowered my bullish stance on crypto and this is not due to recent market sentiment but due to my own deep analysis. 1. We have been seeing massive bullish news for crypto this year with institutions, legislation and governments but yet that doesnt not reflect on the price action of these assets. Why is that? 2. Liquidity is massively moving away from crypto and into other sectors like AI especially retail investors. We have even seen bitcoin miners moving that way and going towards AI infrastructure needs instead, IREN is a big example of this recently. Why? 3. Institutional investment, I know I said this is bullish but one thing all institutions dont like is volatility. Those days of crazy periods of volatle gains and losses seem to be over specifically speaking on Bitcoin, if you look at the charts there have actually been a few periods this year where Bitcoin was less volatile then the SP500, I think with greater institutional investment this trend will increase. The downside of this will be lower CAGR, so if its CAGR drops then why should I stay invested into it? When there are other sectors that are massively outperforming and more likely will in the future also? 4. Last question, this is a big one for me. But I do believe crypto tech is the future, however in saying that, you dont need to buy the underlying asset to use its tech. Ethereum is a big example of this, its usage is at record high but yet its price is negative for the year, the layer 2 protocol is being used massively, but L2 compression means less ETH used per transaction, the only time ETH is required is a bit for settlement at the base layer, so its tech is being used but its not reflected on the price. Also another crypto I used to be in chainlink, its the most adopted crypto infrastructure by legitimate organizations like the SWIFT banking system yet its down 50%, again just because institutions are using its tech, you dont need to buy the actual crypto. Now the big one, bitcoin, it got sold to us as "digital gold", doesnt seem to be that way, governments and institutions are flocking to gold and silver for monetary debasement instead of bitcoin, gold and silver are at record high and not showing signs of slowing down, bitcoin isnt special it requires liquidity just like any other asset. The projected CAGR on the big crypto assets has fallen, with estimates being from CAGR 8% to 15%, ironically this year its in the negatives. So in saying all of this, I'm at a dillema because I'm seeing the broader market vastly outperform crypto especially specific sectors like AI, space, energy. So I ask myself this question if the CAGR stays between that range then why should I stay invested in these assets when there are better opportunities for future gains outside of crypto? I'm open to all discussion. Tell me what you agree or don't agree with, I'm a very open minded guy. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
A rough way to figure out dollar debasement is just to use a large market like the SP500 Index and see what they return is and subtract about 3%. Productivity is rarely more than 3%. The rest is inflation including debasement. So I person consider the bar to be about 7%.
Stop the biased view. Why is ChatGPT one of the most valuable companies? Why has Facebook and Google and Amazon such good investments? THAT's called adoption. FAST. Low adoption doesn't mean shit if it doesn't grow. You think it is at 3% and still has 50% to go? How about it's at 3% and will max out at 4%. BTC is just not that useful and popular. Meanwhile, AI is useful and will become popular. Bonds, GICs, gold, SP500 - all have high adoption because they are useful.
Ahm, SP500 accumulating ETF went up \~412% in 2012-2022, so your math is wrong from begining. That's 15% CAGR. Yes, still much over official inflation (which is wrong), and also more than M2 money supply rise.
Yeah they’re wrong. Sp does more than keep up with inflation. SP500 is incredible place to grow wealth long term and anyone that says otherwise shouldn’t be trusted. Sp500 investing has created countless millionaires. Not comparing it to btc by the way, purely talking about sp500 here.
What would the burst include? Like the Dotcom bubble that dropped %50 of the SP500 or what percentage does the sp500 need to drop for the bubble to burst?
Personally and realistically if I had to invest it. I’d do 60% SP500 20% GOLD 20% BITCOIN but I am Australian so $1mil is more like $750,000AUD
I believe housing has largely underperformed in many areas (even 'before') compared with for example SP500. Leverage in a mortgage skews this but generally speaking if you had put 100,000 usd in a house 100 years ago vs 100,000 usd in a SP500 equivalent, you'd have done better in the stocks. So, in summary, things haven't changed as much as you might imagine. It's just that the previous generation tended to use housing as their vehicle to amass wealth and the barrier to entry to other asset classes is far lower now. Do I think buying a house is a good investment? Most of the time, no. That said there are far worse things you can spend your money on. Cars and boats for example. But, like others have eluded to, there are certain intangibles about buying a house that makes it 'feel' secure for a lot of families. And, a mortgage is a great way to 'force' someone to build equity into something rather than spend it away frivolously as they might be more naturally tended to do. And, just like buying a car, buying a house is an emotional purchase. Not quite the same as looking at numbers on a screen. People do it for all sorts of reasons -some illogical- but as long as people do it, there will always be a market and values will largely hold (but still underperform).
Is the money printer comment accurate? If so. Inflation at 3% means products (SP500) companies are producing more value for the money they get from us (deflation)
Institutions are buying BTC. But they are also buying bonds, SP500, gold, etc. They have huge investment accounts that need to be managed. Institutions buy because they have extra capital. They have extra capital because the economy is good. They have extra capital because their internal growth has topped (ie. they have nowhere to invest it into their own company). BTC price increase is driven by overall economic growth.
BTC is not a hedge against inflation. People need to stop thinking that. My BTC fucking deflated 25% during last year. It was suppose to \*beat\* inflation. Instead, prices grew over 30% faster than my BTC. Low interest rates = better for economy = SP500 goes up = Gold goes up. BTC price is driven by success of economy. It's the last thing on the list to go up in price. What BTC is to most people is "hope". It works, but it has nothing to do with interest rates or "fuck fiat" mentality. If people hate government and fiat so much, why the fuck do they care about the Fed.
Nonsense. Just because the money supply / the total amount of money increases by a certain percentage doesn't mean inflation rises by that same percentage. He appears to argue that the SP500 returns get cancelled out by inflation, but they don't.
And the SP500 has more than tripled over the last 7 years
It's pretty crazy that some people here think that evaluating this bull run by the bear market low (15K) to the bull market high (126K) is the right way to evaluate the bull run. In a volatile asset like the crypto where people are always saying that you should hold (especially Bitcoin), the proper way to look at this is from the previous cycle's high (69K) to the current cycle's high (126K). And during that span of time, Bitcoin did not even go up 2x. That makes this a pitiful run. On the other hand, the 2017/18 bull market had a high of 20K and 20K -> 69K was around 3.5x so that was a good cycle. Now, the 4 year cycle is yielding rate of return that is barley discernible from SP500 while still being extremely volatile, which makes it a high risk, medium return investment.
SP500 is less volatile? Last year FSKAX (Fidelity SP500 index) was $162. It dropped to $138 in April. Now it’s $188. Barely beating inflation.
You’re forgetting another major factor. Crypto is way more volatile than stocks so people are willing to throw their hard earned money into a less volatile asset like SP500.
I was personally a believer in the 4 year cycle until now. Before, every halving the BTC halved was dramatic, it cut the supply drastically, the market cap was in billions or tens of billions or hundreds of billions. It's now 1.75 trillion, with the crypto market cap at 3 trillion. The halving's effects have diminished quite a bit, there are more long-term holders of BTC now than before, more companies and governments publicly holding it and not selling. I feel like we are just following the general market trends and macro events. The SP, QQQ , the general US market all indexes are down quite a bit for few weeks now, gold has rallied 60-65% this year, silver 120%. QE has just begun, it's only 40B but it's better than QT and the rates are being cut. We have stayed at 80-94k range for a month now, so unless we go down more and then rally upwards, the next move should follow the stock market and general macros, if stocks pump up and the next rally begins BTC will follow with much faster upwards growth. Since people already saw 100k+ and 120k+ prices, people now have those prices as targets and therefore it should reach the ATH again and surpass. I am purely speculating tho, however this time rates are being cut, and QE has begun. QQQ needs 7% upwards movement to reach ATH, SP needs 5.5-6% upwards to reach ATH, basically few trillion $ needs to enter the U.S markets to reach ATH prices. I am also assuming when GOLD and SILVER has a price correction, maybe back to mid to high 3k, those trillions of dollars will have to go somewhere, and with rates being lowered, it usually will head to the stock market or BTC.
Thanks for the tip. It makes sense. Another way I've looked at my situation is: If I exit BTC, what is my alternative? The SP500 could fall flat (ie. only 5-10% return next year). If I invest in AI, that could correct anytime too. My portfolio is 30% SP500, 70% BTC.
Companies will buy some BTC as part of their portfolio. When companies have cash, they invest it into the open market. For example, Apple has $200B + on their balance sheet as liquid assets. They will only invest 1-3% into BTC at most - it's called portfolio management. You know what's funny? Anybody who has money will buy a shitload of SP500 before they buy BTC.
But at some point you have to sell some SP500 stocks to pay your loan no? You increase in usd value, but your decrease in number of stocks, right?
I would think a key indicator of adoption is a price increase. Banks opening doors to, or putting out a brochure about BTC is just them trying to make more profit. Meanwhile, what is the case of BTC adoption for individuals or markets? I'm really heavy on BTC but during these downturns, BTC really loses its value as an investment vehicle. It's very speculative with extreme downturns and rallies. Another issue with BTC is that it doesn't allow compounding growth. In the bear market, it dips too much. It's a bad characteristic of this asset. When it dips 30%, it takes 42% increase to break even. SP500 compounds steadily and consistently. I'm not trying to paint a bear case, but honestly trying to be educated on the situation. Hope is not a good investment/business strategy for me.
Borrow against Bitcoin or SP500 if you have any. Also look into a personal loan or HELOC as a last reaort
Yes there is a lot of risk on the table or else BTC wouldn't be tanking . Strategy has a huge affect on the BTC industry. The AI industry has a shitload of risk, but the capital rushing into that industry is immense in order to beat China and race to artificial general intelligence. The street is dry on dry powder. There's gotta be a catalyst...The economy isn't great. I think the only thing going to get pumped is SP500. BTC is the last to pump, it's the risk-on asset. People are no where near the risk-on phase yet. There is too much risk on the table as it is.
Just NASDAQ AND SP500 DUMP!⭐
“This doesn’t feel like investment anymore”. SP500 can go sideways for months or even years on end. Does that feel like investment? Coz it is.
But the $ is down bad so that I'm only up ~2% on the SP500 over the year
If you bought the top 100 “internet” stocks in the 90s and 99% of the company’s in your portfolio failed you’d still have beat the SP500. Not saying HODL is the best advice but with emerging technology, patience can be lucrative.
There's no rush. Bitcoin bullruns are parabolic (straight up). This thing doesn't go up or down steadily. It's not like SP500 or stocks. Stocks are mostly macro and fundamental because they are still based on the income statement. Even though the valuation of the income statement can vary largely due to different forecasts and financial models. But it's still based on the income statement. Equity valuation is based on the company's ability to make money. That said, BTC is not equity. It has no income statement. Its value is based on sentiment. Bear or bull, though? It's really a 50/50. But I am no way shorting BTC.
What? All equities benefit from that debasement. Why do you think the SP500, Gold and pretty much everything has had insane returns since the pandemic?
Post is by: Recent_Category7425 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pildm9/i_backtested_2000_youtube_trade_calls_most_gurus/ Everyone knows 90% of finance YouTube is just entertainment, but I wanted to know exactly how much money you’d lose listening to them. I built a bot to scrape transcripts, log every "Buy" call, and track it against the S&P 500. **The Reality Check:** * **Meet Kevin** is currently the worst performing in the market by -31% in this dataset. * **Tom Nash** has a win rate of only 13% on tracked calls. * Only a handful are actually generating positive returns vs. SP500, and these are not the biggest Youtubers with large subscriber following. Creators always delete their bad calls but I’m building a permanent record. Would anyone here be interested in this type of data? I have a list of creators who also focus on BTC and Crypto and analyze their performance vs. the general market *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It’s viable. It’s also very volatile. It’s also an alternative to SP500 or Dow index and interest rates.
Do you know what prompts heavy cuts and increased m2? Market doing poorly. SP basically putting in new highs already. Have to flush out the people who think we are going to 200k in december atleast
It could go lower. In the long term, there’s always risk it lags behind SP500 and other assets
That's the thing. Retail is broke to Crypto but look at SP500. It's otw to ATH again..
Si je peux me permettre, moi j'ai 28 ans bientôt 29. J'ai commencé à investir vers 2021. Je suis toujours entrain d'apprendre, chaque jour. La seule chose que je peux partager c'est qu'aujoourd'hui je suis en profit. Est-ce que j'ai encaissé vous vous demandez ? Eh bien la réponse c'est non. Je n'ai pas "encaissé" les pofits, mais le bassin que j'ai me permet d'avoir des horizons plus larges pour commencer à m'investir ailleurs. Une chose que j'ai compris avoir lu quelques livres (Père Riche, Autouroute Millionaire, Fils Babylone, Psych de l'argent...) c'est que dans la vie si tu veux réussir pour de vrai, tu dois prendre le risque. Ce risque, corrélé à la chance évidemment est comme son nom l'indique, un "risque". Si je perd tout je suis cuit. En fait presque, tant que je suis en vie, que je gagne de l'argent et que j'ai du crédit à disposition eh bien rien ne m'arrête. En tout cas, c'est plus facile de le dire que de le vire j'en conviens. Pas plus tard qu'hier j'ai fait une transaction sur blockchain de 2k et je croyais avoir fait une erreur j'avais envi de me suicider, mais cette fois c'est bien parc que c'est une erreur stupide de ma part que j'aurais pu éviter à 100% en étant plus patient. Pour revenir au Bitcoin, c'est un peu différent. Je le vois comme l'opportunité d'un siècle, l'opportunité d'investissement. Si je perd, d'autres perdent et encore plus que moi, car je ne considère pas avoir quelque chose d'important je ne suis pas un "whale". Bref, l'avenir semble prometteur. Je ne sais pas si je suis séduit plus par l'idée, par l'euphorie, par l'excitation que ça me procure (je vous rassure, je suis très conservateur pas du tout le profil gambler), mais quand même, je remet constamment en question mes choix et mes décisions. Je continue à croire que c'est un bon investissement. Je ne vois pas en quoi ça ne l'est pas. Steve Jobs à tout mis sur Apple, idem pour les autres philantrope. De plus, étant un étudiant en histoire, je comprend une chose dans cette vie: Seule les voleurs s'en sortent! Eh oui, il ne faut pas être naïf les frérot, Van Der Built et co "les Barons Voleurs" de la moitié du 19e siècle, au Armaturges francais des premières plantations, rien n'est bâti et ne fonctionne sur la "morale". Ca c'est pour la société, jamais pour l'élite. Bref, je ne veux pas m'égarer du sujet car je peux sauter du coq à l'âne comme vous le voyez. J'avais simplement envi de partager mon point de vue sur ce que je considère être une chance en or , la Ruée vers l'Or du 21i siècle. Elle coche toutes les cases. Technologie Blockchain (on s'en ligne vers la tech, pas les pierres). Secondo, indexer de la monnaie papier à l'Or ca ne fonctinone pas, demandez à vos grands-parents aux USA ils vous l'expliqueront mieux que moi. Ce système est désuet dès lors qu'IL EST POSSIBLE DE CRÉER DE L'ARGENT. Personne ne peut calculer mathémathique, rapidement, fluidement le nombre d'or corrélé à son papier. Mais avec une .equation matthématique incorruptible, A PRIORI, soit la transaction passe soit elle ne passe pas. J'écoutais un asiatique parler sur youtube, il à fait une analogie tout à fait intéressante, il a dit: Le Bitcoin d'aujourd'hui et le SP500 d'hier. C'est incroyablement... vrai . Pourquoi? Allez jettez un coup d'oeuil sur le graphique Trading View de SP ou de n'importe quelle action. C'est n'import quoi? Je ne vois pas du profit. Je vois de la dette. Je vois un dollar inflater, c'est tout ce que ca représente. Une monnaie-papier qui ne vaut rien. Alors mon objectif à moi c'est de posséder des commodités dans una venir proche. Pour s'y faire j'ai besoin de capital. Je ne peux pas épargner 100k en 5 ans de travail acharné. C'est quasiment impossible pour un mec lambda. Or, l'investissement devient inébvitable, malheureusmenet et malencoutreusement devrais-je dire car c'est les concours de ciconstances qui nous determinent à être la aujourd'hui en 2025, une cinquantaine d'année suite à 1971. Bref, bref bref, les frérot, je vous conseille d'étudier l'aversion à la perte, le risque et de plongez. Le pire qui arrive vous perdez. Mais sinon, les gains sont juste fabuleux et on va pas se mentir, personne n'a envi d'être riche à 67 ans, avec un diabète un cancer diagnostiquer et une pénurie de médecins dans des hopitaux bondés et un traffic insupportable sur la route. Il faut profitez aussi de sa jeunesse, de sa santé de ses amis de ses relations. Donc, ménagez le chou et la chèvre n'est pas facile et je pense que le Bitcoin va simplement servir de multiplicateur. Bref, je pourrais écrire encore longtemps, j'espère ne pas vous avoir découragé, ni encouragé. Vous êtes maitres de vos décisions, mais la vie est courte et vous ne voulez pas savoir que vous auriez pu mais que vous ne l'aviez pas fait.
The point is that you’re calling it a rule when it’s based on just four data points. That’s not a law. Sure, those are the only data we have, but they’re still insufficient. Even with the SP500, it’s hard to draw solid conclusions despite more than 100 years of history
Stocks are only better if you are looking very short term. Anything before 1 yr+ and Bitcoin wins against SP500 and Nasdaq. Of course there are individual stocks that have outperformed Bitcoin over different timeframes, but you have to be awfully lucky to pick them out of the thousands of underperforming dogs. This is one of the great things about Bitcoin - it's dead simple. Just buy it and wait.
> Mmm, I'd argue the more general objective of fiat is to absorb economic shocks by fully abstracting out the concept of value from any arbitrary concrete resource. Fiat doesn't "absorb" anything. Only the real economy absorbs economic shocks - read up on the concept of "money neutrality". Economic shocks cause the economy to adjust. Some shocks are structural, e.g., the shift from the US manufacturing economy to the US services economy. Some shocks are transitory, like a short-term recession. In either case, there is a transitioning period. Different schools of thought advocate different approaches to handling the transition. The fringe Austrians argue for Darwinism, aka no intervention. The more mainstream argument is that the central bank has a role in intervening to ease the pain of transition through monetary policy tools. And that easing, usually always translates to debasing the currency in the long run. > but sometimes it isn't (e.g. the Volcker years). Congress sets out a dual mandate. You don't want an inflation situation running into another Weimar Republic. When it gets out of control, the long-run cost is that fiat loses all coordination value and, in turn, hurts long-run employment levels. In the long run, it nearly always ties back to the government's social contract with the public to stabilize unemployment. > It's a little strange to characterize investment as "hiding wealth." Most of the wealth throughout history has been "hidden" (i.e. invested) in less liquid, more productive assets, There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING PRODUCTIVE with the Chinese overinvesting in their real estate market. China has a whopping 25.21 housing price-to-income ratio! In comparison, in the US, the ratio is 3.44. What it means, these Chinese houses are not built for average ownership. They just sit there for buyers to pass their cost basis from one person to another. Most of these apartments are fucking vacant for years, and they are still priced above what people can afford. That is not a natural outcome for the market of "productive assets". Since September 2006, the SP500's PE has grown close to 2x. There is NOTHING PRODUCTIVE about growing a PE ratio. These trends are literally people trying to escape from currency debasement. > (Which is why Bitcoin and cryptos are not "cash".) That is something I agree with. Crypto narrative-as-cash is an IQ trap. The crypto market reflects that. Crypto assets branding themselves as "cash" don't perform well as a store of value. > given network's native coin can be valued by how economically productive the network is. That doesn't make sense. You need to assess the asset's comparative advantage before deciding how to use it. Decentralized computing is slow and expensive. You need to pay multiple operators to do the same shit over and over to get a consensus. It is not what the business world often needs. Take the example of AI compute: you need fast and low-latency compute. Fitting decentralized computing into the situation is like trying to square a circle. > anymore than stock shares or corporate bonds would be. Stocks and corporate bonds are subject to termination risk. If the company goes bankrupt, your claims go to shit. This is where decentralized compute for crypto is important. It eliminates the termination risk as the ledger is distributed.
SP500 was ripping last week and btc fell bad.
Why do we think there’s such a gap between where the SP500 is and where Bitcoin is relative to their ATH?
calm your pants. We are green cuz the SP500 is ripping today
U are wrong. Tons of people choose BTC over SP500 because they dont want to fund the military industrial complex, or big oil, or big ag, etc. Thats a protest
I have had this experience with stocks in March 2025 when Trump caused his first huge drop in markets worldwide. I sold with 15% loss. My reasoning was the following: I have no fundamental understanding of the economy so I do not know if a big recession is really coming, but I know that it is highly possible looking at the world and especially the US nowadays. In such a situation it's better to withdraw from the market to secure what you have at the moment. I did it. The market has slowly recovered since then but I believe my reasoning was right and I never regret it. What I learned is that assets do not carry in them the price you paid for them. The real price of an asset is always the current one + the current outlook and never the past price. Remembering the past only puts you in emotional restriction which has no connection to reality. That's, you should estimate your assets anew at every moment and do not allow the past price to condition you emotionally. It's not easy but it is the right way to deal with indetermination. BTW, SP500 chart for the great depression era shows that it took about 20-25 years for stock prices only to get back to their numbers without counting inflation. Something cannot happen only until it does.
First of all, I would be very suspect of statements about Trumps wealth, he is heavily indebted, so the actual total may not be nearly as impressive. And even if I would take it at face value. All that effort, conning, and bankruptcies for mere 35% on top of SP500? LOL.
This is why it is so important to go into the market with a plan. Looking at the charts should not make you anxious. It will lead to bad trades. As the market cycles, it is OK to adjust the plan, but you shouldn't abandon it because you got anxious. Trump's presidency will end in 2028 (well, '29), it is extremely likely we'll get a Democrat in office. Dems *always* pump the markets. This event will coincide directly with the next halving. It should come around a year after the next halving, which is typically when we see the market really take off following the halving. Over the next 3 years, the markets will be in the dumps. All of them. The writing has been on the wall for years, SP500, NASDAQ, Crypto, AI, everything has been overheated for years. They need to time cool, and that will happen over the next few years, and we will enter a recession. Coming out of this recession, we'll have a general election that will coincide with the halving, the AI bubble will have popped, the war in Europe will likely be over, and the markets will rally. BTC and ETH will be primed for explosion. 2030 is my exit, and I'll be buying during this 3 year crab.
People are losing faith cause people could have just invested into the SP500 & gotten a 20% return of their money instead of losing with Bitcoin, it’s not so much believing in bitcoin, it’s whatever can buy you your financial freedom fastest.
If fact Trump has managed his inheritance rather poorly, had he invested everything in SP500 he would be quite a bit wealthier than he is now.
BTC went up over 2% while SP500 went up between 1% and 2%
You don't need to pick pico bottoms and tops to beat the SP500, we're just 35% down from the top and 214% above the bottom for this cycle. RN after a serious dump You just need to trade it not like a total redart to beat it
There is literally so much more bitcoin that is locked in cold storage and not sold by countries, companies and entities when BTC was at 15k, I doubt we will see anything below 70k but never say never. As long as the general market indexes trend down, BTC will trend down too. I mean look at SP and nasdaq, they are down trillions of dollar in the past few weeks, they are down today too. I assume when the general market trend goes upwards with QE starting in usa, and general QE worldwide with stimilus checks coming up, the economy will boom again.
Incorrect but keep making assumptions. BTC was lapping the SP500 x 10 up until this dip here.
it is a scam and i bought in too. There is a 50-50 chance it would go up or down, a gamble, not like the SP500 index fund with all the major companies that bring in the profit. If you invest in the index fund there is a 70 percent chance you will win, and it won't stop to go up unles there is a world war or something. Guys let's stop pretending that btc isn't roulette :)
>> The stock market has been dropping, too. The SP500 is only 5% from it's high this year???
He’s most certainly going to diversify it into things like real estate, SP500, gold . Maybe start some businesses.
THE REASON IS : NVIDIA earnings was a bit scam (they're not that good) and OpenAI seems a scam company!!! so SP and Nasdaq nosedive!! Also the jobs report was cancelled!! market is afraid
The whole SP500 index nearly outperformed BTC 🤣
The whole markets crashed during that time. If SP500 is down 30% , BTC will also crash 60-80%.
Only around 60% of all supply is in profit, that's literally has not been seen since 2023. It's a really rare moment. I think people who would have sold at a loss already sold and we should be bouncing up soon. Every market is in extreme fear, every market is down, BTC RSI is at an all time low, BTC's fear greed is also extreme fear, stocks are down, rate cuts are possibly not happening. All the indexes have been negatively effected the past few weeks, it's no wonder BTC is down. Guys just think, when SP and NASDAQ rises back to their ATH and higher, which it needs to rise about 8.5% for nasdaq and around 5-5.5% for SP500, don't you think BTC will follow with explosive gains? I assume when (dunno when, could be few months or weeks from now) SP and NASDAQ recovers to their ATH and pumps beyond it, BTC will be above 100k, going up and up.
Nasdaq is down 7.5% fro ATH, SP500 is down 5% from ATH. Bigger market indexes are down quite a bit and BTC is amplified version of them, although we are down about 32% from ATH BTC wise, theoratically most drawdowns were around this range of between 25 to 35 %, if BTC falls below 80k and continues to fall that's a 100% confirmation of a bear market, if it bounces up around these prices then it's a correction and most likley the whole market is also rallying upwards.
And then you can buy tangible gold or stocks to achieve similar results to bitcoin with less volatility...? SP500 and gold isn't going anywhere but up, bitcoin? who knows if it's going to 10k or 1 million... Certainly not me, that's for sure. I'm still holding some but I don't get how people can all-in on crypto.
True but why do you think we are nearing pre rate cut price for the SP500 and Yearly low for BTC
Good point but why do you think this hasnt been reflected in the price? Even the SP500 seems to be edging closer to the price it was before the first rate cut
SP500 3% from ATH what do you mean
Yes, go look at SP500. Movement down tracks exactly with crypto movement down
10% is SP500 and 90% is split between IBIT and MSTR.
Trump makes one last all out attempt to pump the markets, involved the fed and QE. SP500 pumps to 7500. Bitcoin gets a dead cat to 100ish
like 5 or 10 SP500 stocks are like responsible for like 90% of gain or something. some crazy shit like that