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Some Bitcoiners already know they will die with the goal to pass on the BTC. Because they know for a fact they will regret selling. So at some point that old shit. The mess on chain they made in the past, will just sit there. It’s too much work to deal with. But they just move on and restack as possible because it’s for 10 years from now. They have no choice. To them it’s a guaranteed gain of future buying power faster than holding the SPY. They believe it’s currency wars > total productivity US companies SP500. And of course they believe BTC wins the currency war. It’s mind share that matters. Ever more people who will just aim to borrow against it and stack. If they want something, they will buy it with a defi loan somewhere. Because they can’t stomach selling but they realize they will die. So a smidge risked in defi won’t matter in their lifetime even if it was lost to a protocol code defect or dev theft. So as time passes. BTC will gain mind share even if it’s not the fastest in the crypto world or particular companies. Let’s call the winner at 33 trillion m2.
SP500 return 9% a year on average. 99% of professional managers cannot beat the SP500 index. bitcoin has returned over 130% a year on average. buy every week and sit still. find another hobby to satiate that gambling drive.
It's 2045 though. What was the SP500 market cap 20 years ago? About 1/5 of what it is today. So if you take the $50 trillion market cap today and assume it'll be $250 trillion in 2045, not so crazy now is it? Gold will also likely be over $12k/oz by then as well...
I agree with the other comments that you should make this the last time you disclose online how much you hold. However, I disagree with the comments saying you should sell everything in order to only own BTC. Diversification is good, if done properly. Sell the useless gold and buy SP&500 or MSCI world shares with the money. This way you will have a truly diversified portfolio. Don't put all your eggs in the same basket, even in a solid basket like BTC
SP500 depends on Bitcoin now ;)
Is it too late to get 100X+ returns in a year? YES too late to get 100x returns in your life time? NO Too late to dramatically out perform all traditional assets like SP500/real estate etc? NO
That's just not true. Market cap of the SP500 alone is over $50 trillion. Then you add in the market cap of US real estate, which is over $100 trillion. The treasury market cap and corporate debt market cap is also close to $50 trillion. Then you have small caps, private companies, collectibles, etc. And that's JUST the US. So it's just not true that 300 trillion is near the market cap of all assets in the world.
You're right, I was quickly looking at charts and compared 2020 to 2025 SP500 growth to 2021 peak* to 2025 BTC growth by accident. BTC edges out SP500 2021 peak to present and clobbers it 2020 to present. I edited my above comment.
You're right, I was quickly looking at charts and compared 2020 to 2025 SP500 growth to 2021 peak* to 2025 BTC growth by accident. BTC edges out SP500 2021 peak to present and clobbers it 2020 to present. I edited my above comment.
You're right, I was quickly looking at charts and compared 2020 to 2025 SP500 growth to 2021 peak* to 2025 BTC growth by accident. BTC edges out SP500 2021 peak to present and clobbers it 2020 to present. I edited my above comment.
You're right, I was quickly looking at charts and compared 2020 to 2025 SP500 growth to 2021 peak* to 2025 BTC growth by accident. BTC edges out SP500 2021 peak to present and clobbers it 2020 to present. I edited my above comment.
' For example, if you bought at the 2020 peak you would have seen 2x better returns just dumping money into the SP500.' This ^ is not true.
That's just a lie, the Sp500 hasn't 2x'd Bitcoin since its 2020 peak. Bitcoin has had a 3x gain since the highest 2020 price, Sp500 has barely even 2x'd since 2020. I'm assuming you mean Bitcoin's 2021 peak. But even there, bitcoin has gone up 50% vs Sp500 40%, so definitely still not true. (And that’s the WORST possible scenario you can make against Bitcoin's returns since 2021.) You can dislike Bitcoin for whatever reason you want but saying that Sp500 has outperformed 2x it in any period of 4+ years is ridiculous. Yes, Bitcoin was risky, yes, you might think it's not worth it, but the returns of the SP500 DID NOT 2x it like you said.
I’m wondering this too. BTC is currently 3.5x its 2020 peak (just under $30k, last day of the year). SP500 for that same time, if I’m reading correctly, is like 1.6x?
I think many of the people who ask that question are really asking "can I still make alot of money very quickly" like BTC did early on in its life"? To that id say dont count on it. For example, if you bought at the 2020 peak you would have seen 2x better returns just dumping money into the SP500. But the real question people should be asking is whether future BTC value appreciation will generally best tradfi in the coming years. To that my personal bet is that it will.
Because this isn’t the SP500. Statistically there is just as equal of a chance it tanks than it increases
I think it’s more than enough to live rest of your life. That’s 1.5-1.7 million dollars. Invest $500k of that into Vanguard SP500, you’ll get quarrel dividends and the part of your money still continues to grow
I would probably hold 2 and sell 1BTC to buy SP500 and some physical gold. Just to diversify.
Bitcoin CAGR last 7 years starting January 1st 2018 and ending Dec 31st 2024 (includes 2 bear markets for more conservative number) = 29.49% Bitcoin CAGR last 5 years starting January 1st 2020 and ending Dec 31st 2024 (includes only 1 bear market) = 67.02% I can't predict the future but my most bearish estimate is that it should at least keep up with the SP500 CAGR for the next 10 years, so at least 10%. Bullish estimate = money printer rocket ship 🚀 It's hard to predict. Going forward I think the crazy gains we saw in the past will level out but I also think we won't be seeing huge drawdowns like before as well.
I totally agree with you and that’s why i want to keep the BTC allocation around 35%, have my house and the rest in SP500 indexes funds like VOO-SPY.
70% SP500 / 30% BTC. I will add more to Bitcoin around 35/40% allocation of the portfolio in the future.
>Could you explain the 14% needed to stay ahead? Is this just USD terms? Yes, primarily USD terms, but since all fiat currencies face a similar fate i think it applies across the board. To put it simply, you need that 14% to stay ahead of monetary debasement and price inflation. In the US, the money supply grows about 7% per year. They say inflation is only 3% but thats some BS. Even if it was, that 3% compounds year after year raising the cost of living. The gains made by the SP500 are largely due to the steady increase in the money supply, and the need for people to beat inflation. >I agree with you, but isn't it more risky to have all your eggs in one basket? Last time you bought eggs, how many baskets did they come in?
Risk-weighting is my thing. Going by their 3yr standard deviations, Bitcoin is about 4x more volatile than the SP500 is. So if I had equal conviction in both the SP500 and Bitcoin, my cash investment would be: 4 parts SP500 to 1 part Bitcoin
I have a few thoughts- not sure how helpful I'll be as I drank the orange kool-aid years ago. Yet I am female and probably one of the few in this thread so I'm going to give it a shot. Have you and your wife talked about what you want your retirement to look like? Do you know your number? I'll price it in fiat for the sake of your wife- ex: 2.5 million, 4 million? I ask because often people get so down about the future but they can't actually language out what they want it to feel, look, taste like, etc. Are there some costs you could cut that would free up some money to invest in other investments that could give your wife some comfort? I don't even know if that's the challenge here though. Example; agree to max out the Roth each year and choose the SP500 (I know I knowwww) but also do some BTC proxies like, iBit, Strategy, etc.? As mentioned though below- there's not really an asset that's going to give a better return than BTC. There might be some compromise that's needed and in doing so, gains knowingly will need to be "let go". Is your current BTC bag secure? Please tell me it's secure. I'm going to assume it is. But if it isn't... secure it. Does your wife spent a lot of time on social media? I have no other way to ask this without sounding like a dick. But if she's on the Tok, or the Instagram much- this could be skewing her perception of now, what is good, what is real, your future including retirement. Maybe just start streaming audible BTC-related books in your home. Larry's new book, Lyn's Broken Money, etc. There's a new YouTube channel called Sat Chats I've caught a few episodes of. The whole premise is this guy is trying to talk his wife into letting him buy more BTC. He's spending the first 99 episodes practicing on guests (there's a fair about of women) and hearing their stories, definitely seeking the female perspective and trying to hack the female brain IMO. The 100th episode his wife will appear and he will try to orange pill her. It might be valuable to listen to a few to see if anything resonates. I wouldn't make your wife sit down and listen but there could be some sparks you could try to implement. If she is open to listening to some podcasts- Natalie Burnell, Pierre Rochard's wife (sorry, forgot her name), etc. Also, probably be careful how much you tell her to "chill." ;P
I will never forget January 2023. Most analysts were predicting a doom and gloom year....we move forward in December 31st 2023...the SP500 was up more or less at 25%. Their predictions are just as useless as ours.
The problem is to time the market. Who knows what the market will do ? We have more and more institutions buying Bitcoin I don’t think we are gonna see 70% drop again. Look with the tariffs recently, BTC hold better than SP500-Nasdaq.
I have actually thought about asking my boss if I can quit and then rehire a few months later. Then I can have control over how my money is invested. With my company’s 401(k) the highest returning investment option is SP 500 index.
But alts that were in top 10 or top 20 in last cycle aren't really penny stocks. If all the companies in SP500 were going down, besides top 3 or top 5, it would definitely be a bad sign for those companies at the top as well. If the whole economy is collapsing, even those at the top can't keep going strong for too long.
werid basket of cherry picked stocks lmao. the SP500 is only 4% shy of a new ATH
I wonder since Coinbase just joined the SP500 if Coinbase accounts will finally get the backing of the FDIC
100% means doubling your investment. $10 investment going up 100% means it's now worth $20. 200% increase means that $10 investment will be worth $30. When either BTC or SP500 go up 200% your investment will be worth 3 times as much as you put up. You can use multiplier i.e. 2x or 3x. or percentage increase, but you must use them correctly. 200% does not mean 2x, 100% means 2x.
Putting 100k on one stock is borderline crazy. I'd go 50% BTC and 50% SP500 or MSCI World
Bitcoin YTD +19.21% SP500 YTD = negative 0.41%
Firstly well done for investing at your age. I can’t get my kids that are older than you to even look at bitcoin. 1 bought a house at 19 and sold 10 years later for a nice sum. The other still lives with me and is saving to buy his own. You say you are living at home with a loving family. Is there any chance you can borrow from your folks home loan and pay them back the $340 per week. That way the interest would be lower. They will know how you have been investing in shares and your commitment. First thing may be convincing them how good bitcoin is. Tell them do some research independently but give a few points about MSTR, Coinbase on SP500, nation states investing etc. Personally I’m going all in with my savings and DCA, but I can’t justify taking redraw from my house at 5% interest unless there was a big dip. Not worth losing my house over or going back to struggle street. I’d stay away from getting in debt. Also think about selling the shares to finance BTC. That’s money you already have and if btc goes up the way we all think it will, your shares are only a step above fiat. Listening to Michael Saylor says leverage at 4-5% not higher. He is buying BTC at 0% by selling his shares. No one here has the power of a billionaire like him. We all hope you are right about the bull run. Having bad debt on your credit score could give you more headaches in the future.
> Your examples completely miss the mark. Cherry picking Intel as a company that lost massive market share due to years of failed execution doesn't conclude basics of economics. The broader market response to low rates and QE has been consistently positive, just look at SP500 performance after each rate cut cycle. Intel underperformed specifically because they fell behind technologically while AMD and Nvidia innovated. Using pre-2016 crypto alts as evidence is flawed. That market was entirely different, Like it or not, you just agreed to what I said. Assets that have fallen out of favor or recognition don't get a bid even if the credit constraints are loosened. > Not sure how demand could be still missing when everyone starts having more liquidity to invest. Is it because the public increasingly sees crypto as a massive scam and a meaningless sector? For example, go watch a recent podcast by Prof G Market. It is a very well-known "normie" investment-oriented podcast. They even got Saylor to interview about Bitcoin once. In their last season with Coinbase listing, they basically cursed the sector for pumping shit like "cumrockets, Fartcoin" etc. Those are their exact words.
Your examples completely miss the mark. Cherry picking Intel as a company that lost massive market share due to years of failed execution doesn't conclude basics of economics. The broader market response to low rates and QE has been consistently positive, just look at SP500 performance after each rate cut cycle. Intel underperformed specifically because they fell behind technologically while AMD and Nvidia innovated. Using pre-2016 crypto alts as evidence is flawed. That market was entirely different, totally smaller in scale compared today with global crypto adoption nowadays.
Point one: Gold is as good an inflation hedge as anything else. The twenty year returns on GLD are near the SP500 which is the benchmark for professional investors. Bitcoin has significantly out performed during it's 16 years and will likely continue to follow that trend with diminishing out performance (but still out performance compared to the high returns of SP500, Nasdaq, etc). Intrinsic value may or may not be what you are interested in on the second front of this question. I think you are thinking in 'fair value' terms? Gold's fair value (currently $3,288) can be loosely calculated as Fair Value of Gold = β₀ + β₁(Real Rate) + β₂(Trade-Weighted USD) + β₃(US CPI) + ε Bitcoin could be calculated using Fair Value of Bitcoin = β₀ + β₁(Real Rate) + β₂(Trade-Weighted USD) + β₃(US CPI) + β₄(Network Activity) + β₅(Supply Dynamics) + β₆(Adoption) + β₇(Regulatory Environment) + ε but those additional variables are up for debate so an actual number isn't going to be widely adopted or useful for years or even decades Intrinsic value is complicated and what a lot of people argue about in regard to bitcoin/Bitcoin (gold also faces critique from a lot of finance/investment folks that just prefer productive assets that are relatively easy to explain in financial terms). Point two: Lightning does have similarities in that most users will have a custodian manage the channels for them. One significant difference is that lightning doesn't block anyone from participation. If you ever live in another country you might see how multiple incompatible platforms are hard to deal with. Deciding on Venmo or Paypal is maybe trivial for Americans, but working internationally it is a big pain in the ass that banks often don't work together. Another difference is that the user has the option of running your own checking account digitally. With fiat you can only use cash to fully control your spending. Bitcoin's base layer gives you the ability to handle larger transactions and is pretty easy for most people to self-custody. Lightning is harder to self-host, but the self-self-sovereign option exists. Personally I don't distrust the financial system in terms of it not working over the rest of my life. Still bitcoin is useful to me in sending money internationally, storing value, and having some assets that no one can touch without my permission. Point three is extremely nuanced and I don't want to dive into that completely since this reply is already very long. My perspective is that the current system is broken in that value is being robbed of anyone that isn't a quasi-savvy investor. I grew up with a lot of working class people that don't trust big corporations anymore than the govt. Bitcoin gives people a dead-simple option to hold wealth without worrying about NVDA's earnings or the full faith and credit of the federal govt. I don't think bitcoin loses significant value if the current system lasts forever. But you might want to think in terms of decades and centuries. Fractional reserve banking and fiat currency at the current scale are fairly new experiments. Until around WW1 it was not normal to create a bunch of govt bonds and then buy them with a national bank or federal reserve. Point four: here you are misunderstanding the math. You can divide a penny infinitely too. Slicing bitcoin into smaller pieces doesn't change anything other than decimal places. There are 21 million bitcoin max. 2.1 quadrillion sats max. Keep renaming and increasing the number of units however you want. Nothing changes with the set of units. Dollars are intended to increase in supply regularly and in pretty large quantities. Fundamentally different models for issuance. The concern would be if we needed bigger units of division for bitcoin as the dollar out performs it. The usefulness (intrinsic value?) of the Bitcoin protocol ultimately determines the demand. As long as there are zero false transactions and the network continues to function there will be increased demand (maybe not a lot, maybe a ton). People have gotten used to credit card rewards and banks that baby-sit their money. But all that is fairly new. My grandparents buried money in the yard because the banks all failed when they were young. It is possible that people will (to some degree at least) decide that the banks and government are not 100% trust worthy for this essential aspect of life. I think banks and treasuries have shown themselves to be pretty bad actors in the first part of this century. Even if you think everyone in finance and financial policy is completely benevolent there is a pretty big incentive for bankers to expand lending and risk to the edges of what is legal and ethical. Politicians are perhaps even more short sighted. They typically just want to stay in office and/or make connections with the private sector for future personal enrichment.
wait they joined the SP500 and the stock is still down from it's ATH. what. the. godly. fuck.
But I am doing with with SP500 and it doesnt shit bed every time it goes up 10%. So what?
all pension funds for example. COIN is already in the SP500. next up is MSTR. so a large chuck of automatic index buying will be directly investing in BTC.
COIN as well, just joined the SP500.
You already answered the question, good sir. If your employer has you on SP500 then just keep buying Btc for yourself.
I know what he means. The SP500 has companies behind, Bitcoin just speculation. But they can both go up forever. What I'm sure of: Bitcoin can't make people rich forever. At some point there are too many Millionaires cashing out and that money has to come from somewhere. Meaning that it can't grow as it did in the past. We could already see this effect during last and this bullrun
Yeah I didn’t get why that particular news drove Bitcoin up so I half expected a pullback. That kind of news is risk on but also good for the USD—in which case, people rush to the SP500 and USD pairs.
Jealous and scared about losing money. They usually don’t buy anything (no SP500) but only stupid “farming money apps with overpriced active founds”. They also waste everything they make in status symbols and things that they don’t really want (but society do)
Dumped it all, and a bit more. I thought that reaction to the news was a bit odd when I saw it—investors should be running to USD and SP500 off the back of such an update.
Even all those 30% pumps are nothing. If you zoom out its just small candle up last 6 months of any alt. I gained more with my SP500 investment than with BTC. I could earn more with LTC if my stop loss didnt hit. But to be honest I was always in crypto to have massive gains worth that massive risks. Not 20% 30% or 2x gains. And I dont see those massive gains there anymore, if you dont win Fartcoin lottery. Rather redirect rest of my portfolio to safe stuff.
SP500 has returned 10% a year on average for 100 years. And for almost half of those 100 years money was backed by gold (until 1971), so without brrrrrrr.
I just see btc as a better performing SP500 now. Typical crypto gains are now from altcoins
Hope is hope :D I was kind of ETH fan and made mistake even ETH > BTC amount in my portfolio but.. this crash atleast give me some lessons. Even has some good bullish patterns and signals [https://coinseekly.com/app/screener/eth](https://coinseekly.com/app/screener/eth) but its unpredictable. Its like predirect SP500 biggest companies in next 5 years.. Maybe yes, maybe no. Although I'm still buying to reduce that red color text with -sign on my eth result :D
Bitcoin, if you're unsure , diversify among SP500 - Bitcoin and big companies such as apple, google, microsoft if you want. H
I feel the same. When I pay my bills at the end of the month and I have money leftover to invest I look at SP500, or other etf's for worldwide exposure, sometimes I'll consider gold or a single stock... But then I always regret buying those instead of just putting everything in bitcoin.
Bitcoin up 6% YTD and SP500 down 4% But the buttcoiners just keep crying instead of joining the winning team! USA announces reserve = nothing Bitcoin continually outperforms market = nothing Bitcoin enhances on properties of gold = nothing Bitcoin ETFs break records = nothing More and more companies buying btc = nothing I swear, if you've taken the time to understand btc and don't at least have a slice of your portfolio in it, you're out of your mind.
Did you read it? US SBR has been approved but hasn't made a single purchase yet (therefore no price action beyond speculation). Definitely excited about US SBR but until it makes a purchase I don't think it will move the needle much. New Hampshire allows for up to 5% of public funds: https://gc.nh.gov/bill\_status/legacy/bs2016/billText.aspx?sy=2025&v=SP&id=707#:\~:text=II.%20%C2%A0Notwithstanding%20RSA,by%20the%20legislature.
Bitcoin. Real estate. SP500. Gold. This is Bitcoin’s category, for now. We expect it to overtake all of them as the alpha asset. Bitcoin is already in a different league. Other crypto coins are either startups that none of them so far have come even close to Bitcoin - or they’re just straight-up gambling.
SPY is a ticker, and a version of the SP500 which is the biggest 500 companies in the stock market combined. Its a good view of the market as a whole The Mag7 (Magnificent 7) are the the companies absolutely dominating the market, its more of a nickname because theyve grown so big - Nvidia Meta Tesla Amazon Google Microsoft Apple The SP is a fairly constantly rotating list while the mag7 is not. If Tesla continues to fail we may start hearing about the mag 6 instead, or if btc hits a new all time high we may start hearing about the mag8 with the addition of something like MSTR.
A lot of horrible advice in this thread - you're not going to get rich with stacking 0.1 BTC or even 1 BTC.. There's a reason the guys got rich - because they were early adopters. BTC is so mainstream even the cashier at your Walmart knows about it. Instead learn a skill, get a job, invest it to SP500 or ETFs. Good luck!
yes. I personally think that bitcoin is a better investment than let's say SP500, VWCE, or any individual stock for that matter for a normal retail investor with no insider information. however there's no shame in diversifying and owning a little bit of everything. \* not a financial advice, DYOR, yadayada \*
All-time low: Jul 14, 2010 (15 years ago) $0.04865 +198,629,423% Did SP500 do better returns?
It happened, BTC outperformed SP500 in the last 5 days!
So that's today they need BTC at at least a certain price like 92k to be included in the SP500 or not at all?
Let's go BTC! I think the previous haven for global investors, the SP500 will see pressures as people lose their jobs and therefore their automatic 401k contributions, as well as global investors diversifying away from the US. BTC is very well as a non-geopolitical store of wealth. This will be BTC's decade!
BTC is not a safe risk off asset yet. It may become one at some point, but it is not right now. I think to see a crazy rally, we would need the stock market to do well and the FED to return to QE, which is not guaranteed to happen soon. Stocks already recovered alot, but this could be a bull trap. I would watch the 50 week SMA at the SP500, it has acted as resistance before. If it reclaims that level and holds it, the worst may be behind us and BTC has clear skies. But so far it is risky to assume we will go to new ATHs soon. That said, there are significant liquidation levels around 97k and a short squeeze could propell price higher in the short term, if we make it past 97k. But I would watch the stock market, job reports and economoc data from the US and wait for the SP500 to reclaim the 50 week SMA as confirmation of a structural recovery. Thats just my analysis, not any Youtuber or something.
Stack aggressively when you get a career, BTC isnt going anywhere. Reallocate the money that would go to a retirement account, fuck employee match, the limited options will kill your return and the vesting period will take years anyways. Use this time to continue building your knowledge so your conviction can rise as well, buying and holding isnt as easy as it seems, esp. for new investors. BTC is the SP500 2.0, neither BTC nor SP500 are going anywhere.
True, it's definitely volatile relative to certain other assets but note that a couple dozen stocks in the SP500 were actually more volatile than BTC in 2024 and during most years for that matter. Moreover, long-term, BTC is the best performing asset on the planet since inception. There are dozens and dozens more objective data points. But yeah, it's definitely a wild ride relative to the SP500 and holding onto a single horse.
The current system is working for a certain subset of people. They are wealthy, their dreams have come true, they picked the right career / have the right parents / sacrificed / born in the right country, whatever. For that group of people, BTC is of no interest. Why should they care? They are doing just fine. The super wealthy will buy some because money doesn’t mean anything to them. Just buy everything. It’s the upper middle class and the low millionaires that just dismiss it instantly. Particularly real estate investors in my experience. None of that is wrong. You increase wealth numerous ways. Real estate and SP500 will still make millionaires. But BTC is now a third way to go about it, and some people are just angry there is another option.
Buy the SP500 etf and don’t think about it then. You don’t need to be a professional investor. You need to spend 10 hours learning about how to preserve your hard earned dollars. And it’s easy to read a book and come to the obvious conclusion: buy the SP500 etf and then get back to work. This is a weak argument.
Man seriously SP500 never gives you return average of 60% per year. BTC average for last 12 years is 65% per year! 🤷
ETH switching to PoS, United states switching to high tariffs and fighting everyone outside US. Ethereum and SP500 are now both shit-assets
If SP500 can keep up with BTC they would be very very 😃
1) Tariffs get "solved" somehow (or so they say on the news) 2) SP500 does a complacency shoulder to 5700 and Btc goes to 130-140k (big players sell everything while all the doubters that sold SP500 at 4800-5200 and bitcoin at 75-85k buy again because it's going to the moon) 3) It turns out that the tariff drama started a chain of events that lead to global recession so Bitcoin goes down -75% and SP500 -40%
Oh look another engineered BTC pump to make fellas say “it finally decoupled from SP500 !!!”
This. I don’t see a snap yet in SP futures. Could be missing something though.
Untrue but don't let that stop you from lazy fud. Measured from when ETH went to PoS: If you bought S&P500 and bought ETH, then sold each at the respective tops in the past year, you'd have made 270% on ETH, and only 70% on SP500.
well at least right now you can hit them back with 'how's the SP500 doing grandma?'
Without leverage x10 is hard. If you shorted with x10 SP500 before the crash you made a lot of money for example.
Not the OP but for me personally: Stocks (and real estate) have inflated with a monetary premium because people are using them to store value in a broken system. We can't safely store our wealth in the banks so we were all forced to become "financial experts", trying to figure out the best ETFs and investments that would outgrow the pace of currency debasement. This overinflated the market and placed a monetary premium on stocks because people started using them as "money". Bitcoin is different. It was built from the ground up as a pure store of value: fixed, scarce, and incorruptible. Over time, it will absorb the monetary premium currently embedded in all these other assets. So while I don't see Bitcoin as an "investment", I do think it will appreciate more relative to stocks (i.e. the SP500) due to its superior qualities as money.
> Bitcoin is way to correlated to US stocks for it to benefit from the collapse of the US Dollar. It's not correlated to stocks at all. It only appears that way. Try comparing Bitcoin directly to the SP500 for instance.
Most employers use 401k plans that offer mutual funds that have no direct BTC exposure. Most Americans go with with SP500/ International/ Target Date/ Bond/ Cash funds. There are some national and international funds that offer exposure to BTC, the largest being Tesla. Americans can choose to link their 401k to a different broker and invest with more freedom however it's not as common as you'd think. I don't know how exposed Pension funds are to crypto however that's not a 401k.
Max in what time line? Next 20 years? Most calculators would say that’s a conservative estimate but probably closer to a $1MM projection. Days of 10 or even 5 or 2x in a couple years probably behind us. SP500 doubles every 10 years which is probably close to what we can start seeing with btc. Maybe closer to 5 or 7 in the next decade as we’re still somewhat early.
but this is the first death of the SP?
you cant understand crypto without the stock market, its true that the SP500 went to shit but its because its flooring now that BTC is also recovering. BTC is now part of the economy, even though gold is in ATH. you have to consider everything (macroeconomy) even though what you are saying its true, its called speculation, real prices sometimes overheat and then there are corrections, and when macroeconomic stuff coincides with inflated prices, liquidations happen and there is more panic than usual. and great traders know when an ATH can coincide with Big news to profit even more. the question now is predicting when is gold gonna go down to profit from it
What's the point of btc if it is associated with the stock market... you have more risk and in the end you depend on how well or badly SP500 does... that disappoints me, gold however does act as a store of value
SP500 is down less than 5% and BTC around 2.3%, both currently heading to the moon. People are overreacting.
Nobody knows what the hell is going on, the problem is that market is scared right now and the economical war that trump has issued on the world is short term bearish for stocks and crypto. Once the economy slows down and inflation goes down the fed is going to cut interest and start printing money again, then we would definitely see some bullish momentum. The thing I am arguing is that bitcoin has handled everything pretty well. Look at the charts the SP500 has dropped 20% in the last few weeks and BTC is down 25%. I say hold on
OP is asking a fair and valid question… all the Bitcoin Maxi thought leaders have been wrong and are currently changing narratives on an almost daily basis. It’s always been “buy Bitcoin and hold at least 4 years.” But that strategy has barely outperformed the SP500 these past 4 years. Now they’re saying hold 5 years, or expect diminishing returns, market cap is too big, etc…
Have you checked the SP and NQ today? Lmao
You are not answering my question. What happened after it "went to the mooooooooon" could you please answer that? You can't just deflect it with "don't jump in with no exit strategy SP500 you're the type who buys..." when the SNL example is there. What happened during the SNL appearance? What was the price after that? Keywords: pump, and, dump
Biiingooooo. People assuming this is the bottom of the correction are in for a treat. SP500 could go much, much lower.
Didn't BTC drop in price \*more\* than the SP500/Dow over the same few days?
Don't beat yourself over this. I don't think anyone should expect crashes not to happen ever. The leverage part is the worst, though, and I'll say in this regard it is the riskiest action one can take, especially with crypto. I myself am in Algorand, running a node for rewards, and as it goes down, it is even better because I will buy more and get more rewards. This is where you make money, right here, you buy when it crashes. Patiently observe and put some money in, NOT leveraged, and take profits when the time comes. Why does it always have to be swinging for the fences and expecting super high returns? If you can invest and make 20-30% in a year, that is great! That is better than the average of the SP500 and real estate 10-year average.
I dont know mate. USA was top world economy for 80 years or so but it seems this is start of an end to it. In 1365 it was amazing time to buy SP500 index from Holy Roman Empire, but today it would be worthless. Same fate will meet US stocks one day and with Orange Man its closer than ever.
It's not worse than Covid yet. SP500 went down around 34% back then.
Holy shit the SP is hitting a circuit breaker today for sure
I must really suck at buying bottoms. Bought SP500 on friday afternoon to see 6% immediate dump (after it dumped like 10% already before. Bought some ETH and LTC today after ETH went to low 1700s and LTC under 80 just to see 10% of my portfolio gone 2 hours later. What a time to be alive.
do you think this dip is likely indicative that the SP500 is going to get obliterated tomorrow ? In general, since btc is more liquid it seems it has been preceding stock market action rather than lagging behind... if so, tomorrow could be crazy for stocks
its over. SP500 will drop 40% tomorrow
can't wait for tomorrow to see how low SP500 dips. as a random redditor, I have a feeling that we're gonna see a huge nosedive (not a financial advice)
SP500 is living rent free in this guys head
I’m not disputing the legitimacy of your claims or how wish to classify it, ultimately to some degree it should reflect a hedge against inflation and US market risk. I am simply pointing out, if the claims made by supporters are true, BTC should behave differently than it currently is. Correlation with the major US indices, DJIA, NASDAQ, or SP500, is too high. The viability and value of BTC as an alternative payment platform independent of the influence of centrals banks should increase as the current financial system falters — but it doesn’t.