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Let's go BTC! I think the previous haven for global investors, the SP500 will see pressures as people lose their jobs and therefore their automatic 401k contributions, as well as global investors diversifying away from the US. BTC is very well as a non-geopolitical store of wealth. This will be BTC's decade!
BTC is not a safe risk off asset yet. It may become one at some point, but it is not right now. I think to see a crazy rally, we would need the stock market to do well and the FED to return to QE, which is not guaranteed to happen soon. Stocks already recovered alot, but this could be a bull trap. I would watch the 50 week SMA at the SP500, it has acted as resistance before. If it reclaims that level and holds it, the worst may be behind us and BTC has clear skies. But so far it is risky to assume we will go to new ATHs soon. That said, there are significant liquidation levels around 97k and a short squeeze could propell price higher in the short term, if we make it past 97k. But I would watch the stock market, job reports and economoc data from the US and wait for the SP500 to reclaim the 50 week SMA as confirmation of a structural recovery. Thats just my analysis, not any Youtuber or something.
Stack aggressively when you get a career, BTC isnt going anywhere. Reallocate the money that would go to a retirement account, fuck employee match, the limited options will kill your return and the vesting period will take years anyways. Use this time to continue building your knowledge so your conviction can rise as well, buying and holding isnt as easy as it seems, esp. for new investors. BTC is the SP500 2.0, neither BTC nor SP500 are going anywhere.
True, it's definitely volatile relative to certain other assets but note that a couple dozen stocks in the SP500 were actually more volatile than BTC in 2024 and during most years for that matter. Moreover, long-term, BTC is the best performing asset on the planet since inception. There are dozens and dozens more objective data points. But yeah, it's definitely a wild ride relative to the SP500 and holding onto a single horse.
The current system is working for a certain subset of people. They are wealthy, their dreams have come true, they picked the right career / have the right parents / sacrificed / born in the right country, whatever. For that group of people, BTC is of no interest. Why should they care? They are doing just fine. The super wealthy will buy some because money doesn’t mean anything to them. Just buy everything. It’s the upper middle class and the low millionaires that just dismiss it instantly. Particularly real estate investors in my experience. None of that is wrong. You increase wealth numerous ways. Real estate and SP500 will still make millionaires. But BTC is now a third way to go about it, and some people are just angry there is another option.
Buy the SP500 etf and don’t think about it then. You don’t need to be a professional investor. You need to spend 10 hours learning about how to preserve your hard earned dollars. And it’s easy to read a book and come to the obvious conclusion: buy the SP500 etf and then get back to work. This is a weak argument.
Man seriously SP500 never gives you return average of 60% per year. BTC average for last 12 years is 65% per year! 🤷
ETH switching to PoS, United states switching to high tariffs and fighting everyone outside US. Ethereum and SP500 are now both shit-assets
If SP500 can keep up with BTC they would be very very 😃
1) Tariffs get "solved" somehow (or so they say on the news) 2) SP500 does a complacency shoulder to 5700 and Btc goes to 130-140k (big players sell everything while all the doubters that sold SP500 at 4800-5200 and bitcoin at 75-85k buy again because it's going to the moon) 3) It turns out that the tariff drama started a chain of events that lead to global recession so Bitcoin goes down -75% and SP500 -40%
Oh look another engineered BTC pump to make fellas say “it finally decoupled from SP500 !!!”
This. I don’t see a snap yet in SP futures. Could be missing something though.
Untrue but don't let that stop you from lazy fud. Measured from when ETH went to PoS: If you bought S&P500 and bought ETH, then sold each at the respective tops in the past year, you'd have made 270% on ETH, and only 70% on SP500.
well at least right now you can hit them back with 'how's the SP500 doing grandma?'
Without leverage x10 is hard. If you shorted with x10 SP500 before the crash you made a lot of money for example.
Not the OP but for me personally: Stocks (and real estate) have inflated with a monetary premium because people are using them to store value in a broken system. We can't safely store our wealth in the banks so we were all forced to become "financial experts", trying to figure out the best ETFs and investments that would outgrow the pace of currency debasement. This overinflated the market and placed a monetary premium on stocks because people started using them as "money". Bitcoin is different. It was built from the ground up as a pure store of value: fixed, scarce, and incorruptible. Over time, it will absorb the monetary premium currently embedded in all these other assets. So while I don't see Bitcoin as an "investment", I do think it will appreciate more relative to stocks (i.e. the SP500) due to its superior qualities as money.
> Bitcoin is way to correlated to US stocks for it to benefit from the collapse of the US Dollar. It's not correlated to stocks at all. It only appears that way. Try comparing Bitcoin directly to the SP500 for instance.
Most employers use 401k plans that offer mutual funds that have no direct BTC exposure. Most Americans go with with SP500/ International/ Target Date/ Bond/ Cash funds. There are some national and international funds that offer exposure to BTC, the largest being Tesla. Americans can choose to link their 401k to a different broker and invest with more freedom however it's not as common as you'd think. I don't know how exposed Pension funds are to crypto however that's not a 401k.
Max in what time line? Next 20 years? Most calculators would say that’s a conservative estimate but probably closer to a $1MM projection. Days of 10 or even 5 or 2x in a couple years probably behind us. SP500 doubles every 10 years which is probably close to what we can start seeing with btc. Maybe closer to 5 or 7 in the next decade as we’re still somewhat early.
but this is the first death of the SP?
you cant understand crypto without the stock market, its true that the SP500 went to shit but its because its flooring now that BTC is also recovering. BTC is now part of the economy, even though gold is in ATH. you have to consider everything (macroeconomy) even though what you are saying its true, its called speculation, real prices sometimes overheat and then there are corrections, and when macroeconomic stuff coincides with inflated prices, liquidations happen and there is more panic than usual. and great traders know when an ATH can coincide with Big news to profit even more. the question now is predicting when is gold gonna go down to profit from it
What's the point of btc if it is associated with the stock market... you have more risk and in the end you depend on how well or badly SP500 does... that disappoints me, gold however does act as a store of value
SP500 is down less than 5% and BTC around 2.3%, both currently heading to the moon. People are overreacting.
Nobody knows what the hell is going on, the problem is that market is scared right now and the economical war that trump has issued on the world is short term bearish for stocks and crypto. Once the economy slows down and inflation goes down the fed is going to cut interest and start printing money again, then we would definitely see some bullish momentum. The thing I am arguing is that bitcoin has handled everything pretty well. Look at the charts the SP500 has dropped 20% in the last few weeks and BTC is down 25%. I say hold on
OP is asking a fair and valid question… all the Bitcoin Maxi thought leaders have been wrong and are currently changing narratives on an almost daily basis. It’s always been “buy Bitcoin and hold at least 4 years.” But that strategy has barely outperformed the SP500 these past 4 years. Now they’re saying hold 5 years, or expect diminishing returns, market cap is too big, etc…
Have you checked the SP and NQ today? Lmao
You are not answering my question. What happened after it "went to the mooooooooon" could you please answer that? You can't just deflect it with "don't jump in with no exit strategy SP500 you're the type who buys..." when the SNL example is there. What happened during the SNL appearance? What was the price after that? Keywords: pump, and, dump
Biiingooooo. People assuming this is the bottom of the correction are in for a treat. SP500 could go much, much lower.
Didn't BTC drop in price \*more\* than the SP500/Dow over the same few days?
Don't beat yourself over this. I don't think anyone should expect crashes not to happen ever. The leverage part is the worst, though, and I'll say in this regard it is the riskiest action one can take, especially with crypto. I myself am in Algorand, running a node for rewards, and as it goes down, it is even better because I will buy more and get more rewards. This is where you make money, right here, you buy when it crashes. Patiently observe and put some money in, NOT leveraged, and take profits when the time comes. Why does it always have to be swinging for the fences and expecting super high returns? If you can invest and make 20-30% in a year, that is great! That is better than the average of the SP500 and real estate 10-year average.
I dont know mate. USA was top world economy for 80 years or so but it seems this is start of an end to it. In 1365 it was amazing time to buy SP500 index from Holy Roman Empire, but today it would be worthless. Same fate will meet US stocks one day and with Orange Man its closer than ever.
It's not worse than Covid yet. SP500 went down around 34% back then.
Holy shit the SP is hitting a circuit breaker today for sure
I must really suck at buying bottoms. Bought SP500 on friday afternoon to see 6% immediate dump (after it dumped like 10% already before. Bought some ETH and LTC today after ETH went to low 1700s and LTC under 80 just to see 10% of my portfolio gone 2 hours later. What a time to be alive.
do you think this dip is likely indicative that the SP500 is going to get obliterated tomorrow ? In general, since btc is more liquid it seems it has been preceding stock market action rather than lagging behind... if so, tomorrow could be crazy for stocks
its over. SP500 will drop 40% tomorrow
can't wait for tomorrow to see how low SP500 dips. as a random redditor, I have a feeling that we're gonna see a huge nosedive (not a financial advice)
SP500 is living rent free in this guys head
I’m not disputing the legitimacy of your claims or how wish to classify it, ultimately to some degree it should reflect a hedge against inflation and US market risk. I am simply pointing out, if the claims made by supporters are true, BTC should behave differently than it currently is. Correlation with the major US indices, DJIA, NASDAQ, or SP500, is too high. The viability and value of BTC as an alternative payment platform independent of the influence of centrals banks should increase as the current financial system falters — but it doesn’t.
Today yes, but historically it trades more like a hype tech stock — like TSLA. Generally, positively correlated with the market just more volatile. Yesterday it sold off and mirrored market performance. It’s evident that you have a good grasp of the fundamentals, but I’m a little shocked by how many other supporters have invested in it without a basic understanding. Which raises legitimate concerns on how it will actually behave. BTC shot up after trump won because he showed support and Biden was opposed it. - that makes sense Inflation was the primary issue for voters in 2024 election pushing gold on a historic run but BTC was down most of 2024 before shooting up on news of election results. 2025 BTC is down just like the DJIA, SP500, and Nasdaq. In theory it should hedge against inflation and the US market selloff, how it actually behaves in practice is a different thing altogether. Showing you can be right and ultimately still lose money. Be careful.
I didnt buy high, I bought low long time ago and years later its still low, with peak ans unrealized profit not even 3x. Unless you think that 75 - 90% down from ATH is not low. In terms of SP500 I am not sure, but I bought it when it was already down 13%, which I thought its smart idea for an asset which usually have maximum 2% volatility. Well, didnt expect it will drop like some Solana memecoin in 1 day.
So after years and years of suffering in crypto I decided to invest into SP500 and buy the dip after years and years of stead climb. I am down 6% since my purchase yesterday. Thanks Trump.
A stock market crash is 100% unavoidable and will always be happening. An infinite growth is physically impossible, so there must be a decline at some point before further recovery and growth. A crash is part of the cycle. If you have money in the stock market and you don't want to lose it, either transfer the money to Bitcoin or funds that are always expected to recover and grow. So, basically, avoid single stocks and invest in funds like SP 500, but keep in mind growth is either the same as the inflation percentage or just barely outpaces inflation. Don't expect a significant growth like it can happen with Bitcoin.
Crypto is kinda holding up remarkably well, the last 7 days. I expected crypto to puke more as the SP500 went further down
You're gonna wreck yourself financially, but that's your choice. > SP500 isn’t overvalued? It's overvalued compared to specific stocks for sure, but not compared to Bitcoin.
I don’t care about 5 years bro, you don’t get me.. 5 years is nothing for what time I am intending to hold. As long as I can DCA and buy more bitcoins ^^ SP500 isn’t overvalued ?
SP500 just casually dropping another 3%. Wtf is going on.
>The SP500 and DOW are all American companies. Which people overseas also invest in.
BTC is global. The SP500 and DOW are all American companies.
wtf are you talking about. Solana did worse than the SP today. It dropped a rough 6% while the SP lost just under 5% When will crypto bros learn out to do simple math?
I'm pointing out that the volatility of btc in regards to the movement of SP500 is decreasing. The past few econ shocks had SPY down 2% and BTC would drop 4% in kind. The pattern indicates that btc could increasingly be becoming a hedge against economic recession like gold. In regards to Liberation Day, the market chose BTC over SP500
Hodler is not shoping, hodler is out of job, hodler bought the dip before the dip before the dip when the dip was a dip and not a correction, threading a bear market teritory. Hodler is -20% down and today his SP500 gains were lower than his crypto loses. Life's good, hodler lives in peace because he has half of his spendings in his bank account. To hell with the investments, hodler isn't pressured yet to sell them.
Fun fact: If today holds, 5/5 biggest SP500 point decline days in history will be under Trump
You still don’t know. It’s pretty easy to assume it will steadily outperform the SP500 though
Ya, like how the SP went from $1900 to $3800 during his first term.
Btc only has 1.65T, not sure what the total is. SP500 has aprox 47T mcap, which makes it less volatile. Payments, loans, interests stuff like that.
I am iPhone hater but its still top 3 SP500 company. 7% down premarket is crazy.
Premarket is bloodboth and european SP500 index bleeding like pig. Trump is officialy worse than covid for world economy. Vanguard SP500 in British Pounds dropped 93 GBP to 79 GBP since his inauguration. Apple today dropping like memecoin 7% premarket. LOL Expect 70k btc range.
There will be brutal anti tariffs from EU. Imagine Tesla not getting gov support ( it was donated in many countries by 4-5k euros) and costing 25% more. It would destroy the brand completely. Unlike in US brands like Xpeng or BYD are already estabilished. Iphones will be also fucked hard. And thats top 10 companies in SP500, imagine the rest.
No but I sold long time ago and can buy now more shitcoins. But I am moving my money to stocks. Will go rather to SP500 which dipped a lot than to shitcoins. And how are you today? Crying about price now?
How though? Which coins did you buy? Suggestions - some cash in bank, some in SP500, some for current dips, some for future dips
I heard somewhere by a Youtuber that crypto will be wiped out eventually and he compared it to the 100 warehouse that were making vehicles and how only 1 made it but that one made him successful what are your guys thought on this? He said that’s why he does not invest in crypto and only invests in SP 500
What you can't do is insinuate something and then say the rest of us are using fallacies. You're insinuating that the fucking profitable and solid companies in the fucking SP500 are a gamble, just like a shitty cryptocurrency based on promises and smoke and mirrors.
BTC is pretty much the SP500 from 9 to 5 from monday to friday it just swings harder but it pretty much moves in tandem.
10% in BTC, 90% in SP500 for me feels reasonable. Although I started with 1% BTC, 99% SP500 but you know what happened in the last 5 years.
Buying SP500 for instance…this has basically mirrored M2 money supply so basically just keeping up with money printing…
The fuck BTC in the SP500? That would be madness. It's just not right.
There’s a high likelihood you personally know multimillionaires of her generation that accumulated their wealth with modest salaries. If you had 50+ years to invest in the SP500 with average returns during that time period, you’re going to be a multimillionaire. Hell, I know people who became multimillionaires from simply buying a home in a HCOL region in the 90s. This isn’t the gotcha you think it is. Crazy you are in a crypto subreddit and don’t understand investing. Go play with a compound interest calculator so you realize how uneducated your argument is.
Yes, but majority of them probably go with SP500 or other low volatility, low risk assets. That's the realistic end game for a lot of people, and how I hope to retire early. Once you can start selling your investments to fund the rest of your life, the only thing that matters is de-risking your investments. Yeah, you could triple your money but why take the risk if you're already in a position where you don't have to worry about money for the rest of your life?
It is artificial. Average SP500 companies continue to beat earnings and estimate next quarter revenues to continue to grow. The stock market is not the economy.
The more the market grows, the more difficult the market manipulation becomes. Over time it stablizes just like stock market or SP500. Smaller ups and smaller downs. Yes, Bitcoin is still relatively small asset in monetary value, and is prone to manipulation. It's happened this year, and actually every year. But the crashing to $10K is wild. That is highly unlikely. Very unlikely to happen even when the bear market comes (which is not yet). We have seen the crypto narrative go extreme fear and despair before, only to recover to new ATHs shortly afterwards. You must be new here. Take a chill pill and invest only what you are willing to lose. *Btw, I don't hold BTC, I hold realism.*
Yep, that's how it was coming for a long time to be honest. It was inevitable. When the institutions or governments get in, that's where it's headed. When Bitcoin stabilizes like 'regular stock market' or SP500, the whales will stop making insane amounts of money. What happens next? Well, the show will continue in other assets, most likely in other big alt coins, where they want to minimize risk but yet be able to influence the sentiment in their own benefit. Tldr? The madness never stops.
Is this a lumpsum vs DCA question? This has been well researched in the stockmarket. If you get a $10 000 bonus and invest in the SP500 right away vs splitting it out, hedging against the volatility with $1 000 x 10 months you would get more money lumpsumming in than DCAing in. I believe it was 70%+ (r/bogglehead has the exact data) of periods the lumpsum got the most returns. I would assume this is the case for BTC, likely even more so. So, in short the research suggest that lumpsum invest what you are comfortable with and then DCA from there. Good luck!
Hey brother first time learning the difference between the Nasdaq 100 and the SP500?
Gold outperformed the SP500 (total return) since 2000.. On my bloomberg chart, the total return was 857% for gold compared to 561% for SP500 (from January 1 2000 until January 22 2025)
>Since 2000, if you had $10K it would have shrank to $5.4K in value I do wish this sub would stop pretending like people hide their cash under a mattress...10k invested in 2000 at 3% (very easy and conservative with CD's/bonds) would be about 21k in 2025. In the US, this would have beat inflation slightly by government's measures. Had they invested in the SP500 they would have over 37k, not Lamborghini money but solid return. I do realize this doesn't necessarily hold up everywhere in the world, but we should stop these dumb comparisons. BTC can beat tradfi on its own merits. We don't need to tie fiat's arms behind it's back for BTC win the boxing match, it can do it all on its own.
This will not be popular opinion,but hey. 1st bought in in 2013. Narrative which got me in,was digital money (not asset),anonymity,finite supply,low fees,me in control of my bitcoins. In short I imagined having btc on my phone,topping up from a cold wallet once in a while, paying everywhere to everyone instantly. Basically thinking in bitcoins.. Not in dollars. While keeping anonymity. Reality check after 12 years. Noone uses BTC for payments. Digital gold because of finite supply? Cmon,I can buy Berkshire shares or SP500. Anonymity? 0 if you KYC somewhere. All in all what is left is me being in control. Not the bank,not the government.. But still the only way how to get something is to cash in to fiat via some institution. It only increases in value? Depends when you bought in. If you bought in 2017 in the peak for 19k,you are up 4x in 8 years.. If 109k was the top this time and you bought in for 50k in 2021,was it really worth it? Yes,there can be opposite,that got in for superb price,but point being - as for the returns magnitude, there starts to be more and more competition in other markets. What will happen when SP500 will start to outperform btc in 4 year cycle? Would you still hold BTC? I m out.. GL to you all...
Nah this isnt it either. Take a look at how many SP500 companies or global powerhouses are now adapting to blockchain technology and using bitcoin to transfer large sums of money to different countries to avoid fees and delays. On a rat race level yes, many atm will be using it to try making money but the ones who drive the market are the whales and corporations - and their direction is quite clear.
Uh, Trump and his stupid tariffs. Bitcoin will not have a higher high or any kind of high until the SP500 slumps
I'm telling you that we are rekt since January 2024 ETF pump was not as good as expected (many people shared Gold chart in comparison), and halving was sell the news event Summer was terrible, alts almost reached bear market level Then we had small pump on November, but mostly memecoins pumped what shoes that people don't care about tech anymore and accept it as gambling The we ran out of steam. Many people expected at least 130k BTC and 5k ETH. Didn't happen. Retail was not here. Smart money was not here. Too many projects Then Trump killed it this year. If you take 4 years March 2021 to March 2024 btc moved only from 50k to 80k which is approx 60% while SP500 did approx 66%. Remember 4 years is a long period and you are getting older, so imo crypto is just not worth the stress. Maybe holding btc is OK, but alts are ded just like ntf died last cycle
SP500 is finally dropping after a ridiculous 4-year bull run, so it's not that different in that regard. Just sayin'
50 years old: 20% Bitcoin (started buying 1 year ago), 30% SP500 index, 10% bonds (just recently from stocks), 30% real estate
I offloaded my SP500 in favour for MSTR this morning as I see more opportunity to recover.
ya BTC down maybe 20% while SP down 10ish?! honestly not bad.
I’ve just got rid of my SP500 for MSTR this morning as I see more opportunity to recover between them two at the moment. And then thinking about the rest of my portfolio
you're really better of trading Nasdaq and SP500 indexes (NQ and ES), much better respect for TA and ridiculously low fees, you can market in and out for a few bucks trading 100K or more. Crypto exchanges are a scam.
I smell some kind of hope in this sub. The truth is that Nasdaq is bleeding heavily again. Down almost 4%. SP500 is green premarket, European SP500 indexes like VUSA bleeding tho. Cryptp will do side action at best with probability of going down. There might be manipulated fakeout to FOMO you in with sharp sell off. Be careful.
I mean BTC has out performed the SP500 over some periods. E.g. 2 years & 5 years etc. But you are right about other periods. in 201 it was over 60k and we are now at 80k. Terrible.
First of all it matters to understand benefits of regular saving(s), this should become a habit, both for middle and longer duration. Secondly it also important to know to Save in a Safe place where you won't be losing value due to inflation (any fiat currency is bad for this purpose). meaning find a good Asset. Thirdly many consider that Bitcoin will outperform Gold and SP500 for the next decade, because it is globally available it is still just getting monetized. One estimate, based on PowerLaw model, is that average grow for the next 15 years could be from 30% per year to 15%, so each year 1 % lower growth, 30%, 29%, 28%, ... This won't be linear, and it will also have downs but in average you could make this approximation. In that model price in 2040 could be around $ 2 millions. So if you start with 0.1 BTC and do DCA for 15 years with $ 400 each month, you would invest 10 + 72 K, and would end up with around 0.3 BTC, or about 600 K, more then 8x. One could say that is pretty good. In addition some would consider this estimation very conservative, and expect Bit to be over 5 mil. in 15 years.
Just little pump and dump to improve blpod circulation at the beginning of the week. No worries. SP500 index is bleeding heavily premarket. Stay tuned for dump in 5 hours.
Bitcoin has been a better investment over its short life against the SP500and it’s not even close. https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/blog/a-decade-of-bitcoin-annual-returns-and-insights-for-investors/
What are you talking about? Bitcoin has been on a run from the low $20ks up to $109k and now $80ks. Thats a pretty damn good return. I guess if you recently got into BTC your return is not great but BTC has a better return than SP 500 as their is more risk to it.
What are we waiting for ? Bitcoin hit 1 trillion market cap faster than any other asset in the world ever has before ..... it will average triple per year over the SP500 over the next 25 years . It will be over 10 million a coin within 20 years. Buy, hold , repeat . It's that easy
Biden (4 years): BTC - 7k to 75k (technically 108k but I’ll concede the pump from 75k was in anticipation of a pro-crypto admin) / SP500 - 2200 to 6100. Trump (1st month) BTC - 108k to 85k (79k low) / SP500 - 6100 to 5770.
Really? SP500 just went down nearly 10% in the last 2 weeks, this doesnt look good
Trump did it! Some SP500 are 10% down in last 30 days! Trump is officialy as much terrible for economy as Covid and biggwst war in Europe since WW2. Congratz mister Crypto President. Here is Golden Burger prize.
So everyone had the idea to sell the news when trump would announce the strategic BTC reserve at the event, however the madlad did it now, thus people are selling the news now. BTC was way too high compared to SP500 today.
There is a burger place in SP on the corner where I live with a sign "Aceitamos Bitcoin" .. I just dont want to spend btc vs brl heheh
SP500, Nasdaq and others are melting holy cow