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But the $ is down bad so that I'm only up ~2% on the SP500 over the year
If you bought the top 100 “internet” stocks in the 90s and 99% of the company’s in your portfolio failed you’d still have beat the SP500. Not saying HODL is the best advice but with emerging technology, patience can be lucrative.
There's no rush. Bitcoin bullruns are parabolic (straight up). This thing doesn't go up or down steadily. It's not like SP500 or stocks. Stocks are mostly macro and fundamental because they are still based on the income statement. Even though the valuation of the income statement can vary largely due to different forecasts and financial models. But it's still based on the income statement. Equity valuation is based on the company's ability to make money. That said, BTC is not equity. It has no income statement. Its value is based on sentiment. Bear or bull, though? It's really a 50/50. But I am no way shorting BTC.
What? All equities benefit from that debasement. Why do you think the SP500, Gold and pretty much everything has had insane returns since the pandemic?
Post is by: Recent_Category7425 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pildm9/i_backtested_2000_youtube_trade_calls_most_gurus/ Everyone knows 90% of finance YouTube is just entertainment, but I wanted to know exactly how much money you’d lose listening to them. I built a bot to scrape transcripts, log every "Buy" call, and track it against the S&P 500. **The Reality Check:** * **Meet Kevin** is currently the worst performing in the market by -31% in this dataset. * **Tom Nash** has a win rate of only 13% on tracked calls. * Only a handful are actually generating positive returns vs. SP500, and these are not the biggest Youtubers with large subscriber following. Creators always delete their bad calls but I’m building a permanent record. Would anyone here be interested in this type of data? I have a list of creators who also focus on BTC and Crypto and analyze their performance vs. the general market *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It’s viable. It’s also very volatile. It’s also an alternative to SP500 or Dow index and interest rates.
Do you know what prompts heavy cuts and increased m2? Market doing poorly. SP basically putting in new highs already. Have to flush out the people who think we are going to 200k in december atleast
It could go lower. In the long term, there’s always risk it lags behind SP500 and other assets
That's the thing. Retail is broke to Crypto but look at SP500. It's otw to ATH again..
Si je peux me permettre, moi j'ai 28 ans bientôt 29. J'ai commencé à investir vers 2021. Je suis toujours entrain d'apprendre, chaque jour. La seule chose que je peux partager c'est qu'aujoourd'hui je suis en profit. Est-ce que j'ai encaissé vous vous demandez ? Eh bien la réponse c'est non. Je n'ai pas "encaissé" les pofits, mais le bassin que j'ai me permet d'avoir des horizons plus larges pour commencer à m'investir ailleurs. Une chose que j'ai compris avoir lu quelques livres (Père Riche, Autouroute Millionaire, Fils Babylone, Psych de l'argent...) c'est que dans la vie si tu veux réussir pour de vrai, tu dois prendre le risque. Ce risque, corrélé à la chance évidemment est comme son nom l'indique, un "risque". Si je perd tout je suis cuit. En fait presque, tant que je suis en vie, que je gagne de l'argent et que j'ai du crédit à disposition eh bien rien ne m'arrête. En tout cas, c'est plus facile de le dire que de le vire j'en conviens. Pas plus tard qu'hier j'ai fait une transaction sur blockchain de 2k et je croyais avoir fait une erreur j'avais envi de me suicider, mais cette fois c'est bien parc que c'est une erreur stupide de ma part que j'aurais pu éviter à 100% en étant plus patient. Pour revenir au Bitcoin, c'est un peu différent. Je le vois comme l'opportunité d'un siècle, l'opportunité d'investissement. Si je perd, d'autres perdent et encore plus que moi, car je ne considère pas avoir quelque chose d'important je ne suis pas un "whale". Bref, l'avenir semble prometteur. Je ne sais pas si je suis séduit plus par l'idée, par l'euphorie, par l'excitation que ça me procure (je vous rassure, je suis très conservateur pas du tout le profil gambler), mais quand même, je remet constamment en question mes choix et mes décisions. Je continue à croire que c'est un bon investissement. Je ne vois pas en quoi ça ne l'est pas. Steve Jobs à tout mis sur Apple, idem pour les autres philantrope. De plus, étant un étudiant en histoire, je comprend une chose dans cette vie: Seule les voleurs s'en sortent! Eh oui, il ne faut pas être naïf les frérot, Van Der Built et co "les Barons Voleurs" de la moitié du 19e siècle, au Armaturges francais des premières plantations, rien n'est bâti et ne fonctionne sur la "morale". Ca c'est pour la société, jamais pour l'élite. Bref, je ne veux pas m'égarer du sujet car je peux sauter du coq à l'âne comme vous le voyez. J'avais simplement envi de partager mon point de vue sur ce que je considère être une chance en or , la Ruée vers l'Or du 21i siècle. Elle coche toutes les cases. Technologie Blockchain (on s'en ligne vers la tech, pas les pierres). Secondo, indexer de la monnaie papier à l'Or ca ne fonctinone pas, demandez à vos grands-parents aux USA ils vous l'expliqueront mieux que moi. Ce système est désuet dès lors qu'IL EST POSSIBLE DE CRÉER DE L'ARGENT. Personne ne peut calculer mathémathique, rapidement, fluidement le nombre d'or corrélé à son papier. Mais avec une .equation matthématique incorruptible, A PRIORI, soit la transaction passe soit elle ne passe pas. J'écoutais un asiatique parler sur youtube, il à fait une analogie tout à fait intéressante, il a dit: Le Bitcoin d'aujourd'hui et le SP500 d'hier. C'est incroyablement... vrai . Pourquoi? Allez jettez un coup d'oeuil sur le graphique Trading View de SP ou de n'importe quelle action. C'est n'import quoi? Je ne vois pas du profit. Je vois de la dette. Je vois un dollar inflater, c'est tout ce que ca représente. Une monnaie-papier qui ne vaut rien. Alors mon objectif à moi c'est de posséder des commodités dans una venir proche. Pour s'y faire j'ai besoin de capital. Je ne peux pas épargner 100k en 5 ans de travail acharné. C'est quasiment impossible pour un mec lambda. Or, l'investissement devient inébvitable, malheureusmenet et malencoutreusement devrais-je dire car c'est les concours de ciconstances qui nous determinent à être la aujourd'hui en 2025, une cinquantaine d'année suite à 1971. Bref, bref bref, les frérot, je vous conseille d'étudier l'aversion à la perte, le risque et de plongez. Le pire qui arrive vous perdez. Mais sinon, les gains sont juste fabuleux et on va pas se mentir, personne n'a envi d'être riche à 67 ans, avec un diabète un cancer diagnostiquer et une pénurie de médecins dans des hopitaux bondés et un traffic insupportable sur la route. Il faut profitez aussi de sa jeunesse, de sa santé de ses amis de ses relations. Donc, ménagez le chou et la chèvre n'est pas facile et je pense que le Bitcoin va simplement servir de multiplicateur. Bref, je pourrais écrire encore longtemps, j'espère ne pas vous avoir découragé, ni encouragé. Vous êtes maitres de vos décisions, mais la vie est courte et vous ne voulez pas savoir que vous auriez pu mais que vous ne l'aviez pas fait.
The point is that you’re calling it a rule when it’s based on just four data points. That’s not a law. Sure, those are the only data we have, but they’re still insufficient. Even with the SP500, it’s hard to draw solid conclusions despite more than 100 years of history
Stocks are only better if you are looking very short term. Anything before 1 yr+ and Bitcoin wins against SP500 and Nasdaq. Of course there are individual stocks that have outperformed Bitcoin over different timeframes, but you have to be awfully lucky to pick them out of the thousands of underperforming dogs. This is one of the great things about Bitcoin - it's dead simple. Just buy it and wait.
> Mmm, I'd argue the more general objective of fiat is to absorb economic shocks by fully abstracting out the concept of value from any arbitrary concrete resource. Fiat doesn't "absorb" anything. Only the real economy absorbs economic shocks - read up on the concept of "money neutrality". Economic shocks cause the economy to adjust. Some shocks are structural, e.g., the shift from the US manufacturing economy to the US services economy. Some shocks are transitory, like a short-term recession. In either case, there is a transitioning period. Different schools of thought advocate different approaches to handling the transition. The fringe Austrians argue for Darwinism, aka no intervention. The more mainstream argument is that the central bank has a role in intervening to ease the pain of transition through monetary policy tools. And that easing, usually always translates to debasing the currency in the long run. > but sometimes it isn't (e.g. the Volcker years). Congress sets out a dual mandate. You don't want an inflation situation running into another Weimar Republic. When it gets out of control, the long-run cost is that fiat loses all coordination value and, in turn, hurts long-run employment levels. In the long run, it nearly always ties back to the government's social contract with the public to stabilize unemployment. > It's a little strange to characterize investment as "hiding wealth." Most of the wealth throughout history has been "hidden" (i.e. invested) in less liquid, more productive assets, There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING PRODUCTIVE with the Chinese overinvesting in their real estate market. China has a whopping 25.21 housing price-to-income ratio! In comparison, in the US, the ratio is 3.44. What it means, these Chinese houses are not built for average ownership. They just sit there for buyers to pass their cost basis from one person to another. Most of these apartments are fucking vacant for years, and they are still priced above what people can afford. That is not a natural outcome for the market of "productive assets". Since September 2006, the SP500's PE has grown close to 2x. There is NOTHING PRODUCTIVE about growing a PE ratio. These trends are literally people trying to escape from currency debasement. > (Which is why Bitcoin and cryptos are not "cash".) That is something I agree with. Crypto narrative-as-cash is an IQ trap. The crypto market reflects that. Crypto assets branding themselves as "cash" don't perform well as a store of value. > given network's native coin can be valued by how economically productive the network is. That doesn't make sense. You need to assess the asset's comparative advantage before deciding how to use it. Decentralized computing is slow and expensive. You need to pay multiple operators to do the same shit over and over to get a consensus. It is not what the business world often needs. Take the example of AI compute: you need fast and low-latency compute. Fitting decentralized computing into the situation is like trying to square a circle. > anymore than stock shares or corporate bonds would be. Stocks and corporate bonds are subject to termination risk. If the company goes bankrupt, your claims go to shit. This is where decentralized compute for crypto is important. It eliminates the termination risk as the ledger is distributed.
SP500 was ripping last week and btc fell bad.
Why do we think there’s such a gap between where the SP500 is and where Bitcoin is relative to their ATH?
calm your pants. We are green cuz the SP500 is ripping today
U are wrong. Tons of people choose BTC over SP500 because they dont want to fund the military industrial complex, or big oil, or big ag, etc. Thats a protest
I have had this experience with stocks in March 2025 when Trump caused his first huge drop in markets worldwide. I sold with 15% loss. My reasoning was the following: I have no fundamental understanding of the economy so I do not know if a big recession is really coming, but I know that it is highly possible looking at the world and especially the US nowadays. In such a situation it's better to withdraw from the market to secure what you have at the moment. I did it. The market has slowly recovered since then but I believe my reasoning was right and I never regret it. What I learned is that assets do not carry in them the price you paid for them. The real price of an asset is always the current one + the current outlook and never the past price. Remembering the past only puts you in emotional restriction which has no connection to reality. That's, you should estimate your assets anew at every moment and do not allow the past price to condition you emotionally. It's not easy but it is the right way to deal with indetermination. BTW, SP500 chart for the great depression era shows that it took about 20-25 years for stock prices only to get back to their numbers without counting inflation. Something cannot happen only until it does.
First of all, I would be very suspect of statements about Trumps wealth, he is heavily indebted, so the actual total may not be nearly as impressive. And even if I would take it at face value. All that effort, conning, and bankruptcies for mere 35% on top of SP500? LOL.
This is why it is so important to go into the market with a plan. Looking at the charts should not make you anxious. It will lead to bad trades. As the market cycles, it is OK to adjust the plan, but you shouldn't abandon it because you got anxious. Trump's presidency will end in 2028 (well, '29), it is extremely likely we'll get a Democrat in office. Dems *always* pump the markets. This event will coincide directly with the next halving. It should come around a year after the next halving, which is typically when we see the market really take off following the halving. Over the next 3 years, the markets will be in the dumps. All of them. The writing has been on the wall for years, SP500, NASDAQ, Crypto, AI, everything has been overheated for years. They need to time cool, and that will happen over the next few years, and we will enter a recession. Coming out of this recession, we'll have a general election that will coincide with the halving, the AI bubble will have popped, the war in Europe will likely be over, and the markets will rally. BTC and ETH will be primed for explosion. 2030 is my exit, and I'll be buying during this 3 year crab.
People are losing faith cause people could have just invested into the SP500 & gotten a 20% return of their money instead of losing with Bitcoin, it’s not so much believing in bitcoin, it’s whatever can buy you your financial freedom fastest.
If fact Trump has managed his inheritance rather poorly, had he invested everything in SP500 he would be quite a bit wealthier than he is now.
BTC went up over 2% while SP500 went up between 1% and 2%
You don't need to pick pico bottoms and tops to beat the SP500, we're just 35% down from the top and 214% above the bottom for this cycle. RN after a serious dump You just need to trade it not like a total redart to beat it
There is literally so much more bitcoin that is locked in cold storage and not sold by countries, companies and entities when BTC was at 15k, I doubt we will see anything below 70k but never say never. As long as the general market indexes trend down, BTC will trend down too. I mean look at SP and nasdaq, they are down trillions of dollar in the past few weeks, they are down today too. I assume when the general market trend goes upwards with QE starting in usa, and general QE worldwide with stimilus checks coming up, the economy will boom again.
Incorrect but keep making assumptions. BTC was lapping the SP500 x 10 up until this dip here.
it is a scam and i bought in too. There is a 50-50 chance it would go up or down, a gamble, not like the SP500 index fund with all the major companies that bring in the profit. If you invest in the index fund there is a 70 percent chance you will win, and it won't stop to go up unles there is a world war or something. Guys let's stop pretending that btc isn't roulette :)
>> The stock market has been dropping, too. The SP500 is only 5% from it's high this year???
He’s most certainly going to diversify it into things like real estate, SP500, gold . Maybe start some businesses.
THE REASON IS : NVIDIA earnings was a bit scam (they're not that good) and OpenAI seems a scam company!!! so SP and Nasdaq nosedive!! Also the jobs report was cancelled!! market is afraid
The whole SP500 index nearly outperformed BTC 🤣
The whole markets crashed during that time. If SP500 is down 30% , BTC will also crash 60-80%.
Only around 60% of all supply is in profit, that's literally has not been seen since 2023. It's a really rare moment. I think people who would have sold at a loss already sold and we should be bouncing up soon. Every market is in extreme fear, every market is down, BTC RSI is at an all time low, BTC's fear greed is also extreme fear, stocks are down, rate cuts are possibly not happening. All the indexes have been negatively effected the past few weeks, it's no wonder BTC is down. Guys just think, when SP and NASDAQ rises back to their ATH and higher, which it needs to rise about 8.5% for nasdaq and around 5-5.5% for SP500, don't you think BTC will follow with explosive gains? I assume when (dunno when, could be few months or weeks from now) SP and NASDAQ recovers to their ATH and pumps beyond it, BTC will be above 100k, going up and up.
Nasdaq is down 7.5% fro ATH, SP500 is down 5% from ATH. Bigger market indexes are down quite a bit and BTC is amplified version of them, although we are down about 32% from ATH BTC wise, theoratically most drawdowns were around this range of between 25 to 35 %, if BTC falls below 80k and continues to fall that's a 100% confirmation of a bear market, if it bounces up around these prices then it's a correction and most likley the whole market is also rallying upwards.
And then you can buy tangible gold or stocks to achieve similar results to bitcoin with less volatility...? SP500 and gold isn't going anywhere but up, bitcoin? who knows if it's going to 10k or 1 million... Certainly not me, that's for sure. I'm still holding some but I don't get how people can all-in on crypto.
True but why do you think we are nearing pre rate cut price for the SP500 and Yearly low for BTC
Good point but why do you think this hasnt been reflected in the price? Even the SP500 seems to be edging closer to the price it was before the first rate cut
SP500 3% from ATH what do you mean
Yes, go look at SP500. Movement down tracks exactly with crypto movement down
10% is SP500 and 90% is split between IBIT and MSTR.
Trump makes one last all out attempt to pump the markets, involved the fed and QE. SP500 pumps to 7500. Bitcoin gets a dead cat to 100ish
like 5 or 10 SP500 stocks are like responsible for like 90% of gain or something. some crazy shit like that
mmhmm I am bullish, but I accept the fact that bear markets are where you can easily compound your gains. Until bitcoin becomes so stable where it only has like 20% bear markets, like SP500, it makes sense to compound the cycles 3 year to the bottom 4th year. For example, if this follows the last cycles, like I did last time to rebuy at 20k > 60k, people just get back to break even, but then you get 3x, let alone the top of the cycle, or just my trailing stop around 102k. If we go to 30k to 102k next year, I make 3x again, let alone the probably extra 2x after that. Might work again, might not.
If you sell it all now you have roughly 17 million. The SP500 gives on average an annual interest rate of 15% so roughly 2.5 million. If you think you can live comfortably off of 2.5 million a year or less then sell it all and invest it and live off the interest. You can even reinvest what you don’t spend. Right now let’s say you live comfortably off of your 12k a month that’s 144k a year. You can triple that and still reinvest 2 million annually. After 20 years you’d have 500 million. It’s highly unlikely that BTC continues to see growth of 15% for the next 20 years given that the amount it has grown annually slows down slowly but surely and is a speculative asset. You can retire tomorrow and travel the world and have generational wealth easily by selling.
Why do you feel fatigued from having BTC, but not feel fatigue from having SP500 ETF shares? To me it is the same. It is a chunk of my future retirement, and it doesn't matter the current situation, as long as I don't need the money, I'm not selling.
It's ok, sometimes SP500 does bad gains, sometimes it crashes, sometimes it skyrockets. We will see, i invested almost 1 year ago, every 3-6 months I'll decide if I like this asset more than anything or not. So far, it's ok as it's expected to be volatile, i was up 40%, now down 8% from my DCA so stuff happens maybe next year i will be up 70% who knows. I will just DCA for the next few years and decide if its performing well or not.
Ok, this is a honest answer and to the heart of the question, so thank you. Some others also said they would compare it to SP500 for an extended period of time, I saw others proposed 4 years, but 10 years is just as good of an answer. I really hope others would also just answer the question, and not take it as a provocative question, which it isn't.
You don’t have the balls to just come out and say it.. beating around the bush won’t get you anywhere. But I’ll bite. For an investment It would have to underperform the SP500 or other “standard” investments for an extended period of time. 10+ years. Store of value, it would have to underperform gold or other “standard” SoV over an extended period of time. 10+ years.
A lot of people here don't understand economics, they just want to put their money in something and watch it grow fast. Growth is going to get lower and lower, someday it will be like SP500 where your money doesn't grow at all. Things have a max value and it jumps up and down towards it, but jumping less and less. It is similar to how something gets closer and closer to a number but never hits it. You will notice growth rate decreases over time for these things.
Yall are crazy. BTC is $94k and you guys are making it seem like everyone's losing money. Literally BTC, Gold, SP500 are all near all time highs. BTC isn't even down 30% from ATH. Have some perspective, the US federal debt load continues to grow at over $200bn/mo. Living is becoming less affordable and historically that means helicopter monetary policy. Keep buying capital assets and chill, WAGMI.
Where does he want to go, to the SP500?
The cycle is broken, and institutional adoption killed it. From here on out the dips won't be as extreme but the gains won't be as parabolic either. A multi trillion dollar asset that SP500 companies and global banks and governments hold on their balance sheets is not going to tank 70%, but you also are not going to see a multi trillion dollar asset quintuple in a year either.
"Oh my god my asset is up %20 this year, which is %5 more than SP500, its so over" are cryptobros retarded?
One can measure purchasing power in anything he likes. I can measure the purchasing power of TV's in barrels of oil if i find it insightful. It doesn't matter what reference point you use, the number of dollars is just one of them. Also, the state-reported inflation (usually between 2-4%) is not the actual inflation. It's more around 10%, right up there with how much the SP500 grows.
At least SP500 is less than 2% down from ATH, but bitcoin is 20% down
I’m not saying bitcoin is doomed or even that this bull run is over, I am just saying it actually more closely follows the SP500 trends as of recently. This is due to the number of “traditional investors” that now own bitcoin indirectly due to ETFs. This is actually true
Yeah no. Measure the SP500 in gold and you are losing purchasing power. Account for inflation and you're running to stay still.
But there is...Bitcoin is just to volatile. SP500 is safer and leads to gains beyond inflation on a good margin.
Agreed, reaching 200k means nothing though if it can’t outpace the SP 500.
I own a business and was in a similar situation about how/where to invest. Having 6 figures invested in MAG7 and I am young no kids yet thus wanted higher risk tolerance. Averaged 15%-20% in MAG7 over a few years but felt like there was opportunity cost of no crypto was something I’d regret. So I cut 1/2 my SP and Mag 7 into crypto. I rushed to get 1 BTC as soon as I could and now DCA. You only spending $5k is crazy on 20k. Live your life brother 💀. I do recommend to grab a coin as soon as possible and DCA what you can. I mean BTC has averaged 40-50% over last 10 years, and we’re entering mid term year, with Trump as presy and he will turn the money printers on. Especially with new fed chair, the liquidity will be crazy over a 3 year time horizon IMO. Get TREZOR BTC only wallet. Easy and most secure. Good luck. I’d jump at the current 103k price btw.
I see, you are trying to time the market, instead of spending more time in the market. That indeed has worked for a few people, some trades were successful there is no denying that. But for a vast majority of trades staying in the market is a better option. I could understand an argument for a "dynamic DCA", where you are adding more when BTC trades closer to the historical lows and adding less or maybe even selling some when it reaches all time highs. That might work, I don't know. I know that in SP500 missing just a few key days in a decade means a huge loss long term, so probably same applies to BTC. You do know that there are folks out there who sold everything in March 2020 and they are still not sure how to re-enter the market? It can be a real challenge Gets worse, some people sold everything in 2009 ...
Holaaaa!!! Si nunca invertiste en nada invierte en el SP500 haciendo DCA... Osea, ve a un broker tradicional ya sea tu banco Trade Republic, Degiro, Interactive Broker... compra acciones del SP500 cada mes y vende dentro de 3 años (no te preocupes por si sube o baja)... Una vez que entiendas como funciona esto recien ahi te recomiendo entrar solo en bitcoin haciendo lo mismo... y mientras tanto sigue leyendo, y quizas puedas invertir en otra moneda....
You would have also gotten to $1M investing the same in the SP500 during that time.
I have half my eggs in btc and the other half in SP500, I'm not worried.
Just stick to BTC and hold it for 8+ years. Why overcomplicate things? Here is list for dummies: 1) Build emergency fund that equals to 1-2 years of your average spending 2) Set a goal of your investment. What do you want to do with the money? Buy your first house with cash? (Doubt it's worth it in US which cheap mortgages). Retire early? Write down your number. 3) Invest only in BTC if you have balls, if your balls are small diversify with SP&500, if you have no balls don't invest at all 4) Continue to work (preferably for yourself, not building someone else's wealth), continue to DCA. 5) Your goal is reached. Either buy your house, retire or do whatever you planned in the first place. Never sell untill the goal hasn't been reached. Is it really too hard? I started like 9 years ago and will probably retire in the next 5-7 years, before I'm 40 and living in poor country compared to US and it's opportunities.
Unfortunately, years pass and it is still difficult to get the message across that with Bitcoin it is sufficient to buy and hold in the medium to long term. The same people who get hurt with bitcoin would also get hurt with the SP500, because they think they are smarter than the market. Except that the SP500 has many institutions and financial advisors advising small investors to remain patient, while in Bitcoin do-it-yourself has prevailed.
I like using Gold as a hedge in my portfolio. If you look at the charts during past crashes, it is without a doubt the best performing hedge in crashes. I thought that Bitcoin would be a fantastic hedge also years prior but my opinion on that has changed now, Bitcoin recently has become way too interlinked with the overall markets, its now moving the exact same on the chart as the SP500, look at the charts yourself if you dont believe me. So in saying that I think Bitcoin is a good growth assest but it doesnt even come close to compteting with Gold as a hedge.
Meanwhile SP500 up 13% a year
You have to look at SPY, the SP500 will determine what Bitcoin does
You know Bitcoin is still up 12% on the year. It's still outperforming the SP 500. I would suggest that anyone dunking on it right now is an imbecile and not worthy of response
About 18 months ago or less the SP was about 25cents
Most stocks are too. AI has been carrying the SP500 like a mfer
To what? Even most equities were flat or down over the past few years. AI is literally carrying the SP500 on its back. Yea BTC had a decent run from Saylor infinite bid, but it also seriously lagged. Alts as a segment never set new highs. Isolated outperformance doesn't count as it was just us rotating capital around to narratives.... memes, dino coins, AI, privacy, etc. Nothing sustained.
We are down 18% from ATH, which was hit about a month ago, compared to SP500 and Nasdaq which is basically less than 1% away from ATH which they hit few days ago. It's normal to panic when stocks are outperforming BTC in the last 6 months. Nevertheless, it's better to buy bitcoin now than it was at 125k.
I think it's more of what OP stated and I don't think Trump is at fault for this. Every cycle is providing lower returns and becoming more stable. It's inevitable as marketcap grows. If anything, Trumps pro crypto policy helps. Just look at the SP or total market indexes. Markets are up this year and near ath's. If it was a macro issue, that wouldn't be the case.
My friend, You are a *little wanker*, without a clue: [SP500 returns](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns) [BTC returns](https://www.slickcharts.com/currency/BTC/returns) BTC kills the SP500 easily
Might as well invest in the SP500 if thats the case 😭
1. You sure about that? Russia is on the verge of collapse, which will leave a power vacuum in Eurasia like nothing we've seen in modern times. This will go one of two ways, 1) Russia collapses, Putin loses control, the Western world calls for war crime trials, demands reoperations, continues to seize Russian state assets, and expands NATO westward. At the same time, China will be looking to expand influence eastward, and we'll get heightened tensions between China, NATO, and the US, as each power clamors to get hold of Russian natural resources and exert influence over the region. Or 2, as Russia begins to collapse, we'll see a dramatic escalation in the current conflict, which, will involve rattling the nuclear saber, again. So to your first point, there is absolutely a world conflict happening right now. And there is no clear resolution. As Russia and Putin continue to weaken, the likely hood of a dramatic escalation increases. It's like a cornered and injured animal, it will lash out. This is not isolated to Ukraine. This conflict, and it's resolution, will 100% involve all major world powers, and no one has any idea how it will shake out. This, is uncertainty. 2. Well, no. But, we should have had higher interest rates over the last few years. The markets have been overheated for years. Pretty much since COVID. The Fed, has propped up this market with low interest, in hope of keeping the rally going. Typically, when the market is hot (which has been for years) we see high interest rates in an attempt to cool the market. Then, when the market turns down, we see interest rates lowered to cushion the landing. Here, we are seeing interest rates lowered to keep the market hot. It is backwards. 3. I am skeptical here, at best. The Employment Situation Summary has been stagnant for months. We haven't seen any real growth since May, and even then, it was insignificant. The jobs market was stagnant through Q3, and we'll not get the November report because the government is shut down. Oh, and by the way, the fucking government is shut down... In summation, we have a significant world conflict on the horizon. It will likely be a soft conflict, but depending on how the Russian collapse unfolds, it could turn hard very quick. We've also got a macroeconomic slingshot pulled *all the way* back right now. The market has been overheated for damn near 5 years, and right now, the Fed is throwing fuel on this fire. All of my non-crypto holdings are in buffered positions right now. Over the next two years, I would not be surprised to the see the SP500 close at a 5 year low. Crypto will do the same.
my old comment: >i looked at the chart of that crisis before, if i remember correctly SP500 dropped -50%, gold dropped -25%, and they recovered in just 2-3 years, totally a scratch compared to crypto, but mentioned by stock guys like "Dementors" in harry potter, weak guys 🤣 yeah, compared to the "terrible" event you mentioned, BTC has dropped more than that many times every 4 years
They have in common that they are sure to make a profit after a period of investment. Both stocks and cryptocurrencies have countless investments that are forever losing money, but there are only 2 things that will definitely make a profit at some point, which are BTC and SP500.
This shit is over-hyped. I decided to invest 30 percent of my portfolio in Bitcoin in January 2025, brought at 107k then it flopped to 88k USD then I was stuck in red 4 months in a row. When it finally pumped I sold at 111k and then felt like a loser again because it pumped to 120k. At 122k I bought it again thinking I'm going to be ok, but nope it fell again. So in a nutshell this year has been sideways for Btc and me, meanwhile I have 25% return on my SP500 where I haven't invested a dime because it went to Bitcoin.
jackbit with **SPIN100** gets you 100 wager-free spins to test, been using them 8 months and withdrawals always under 15 mins plus house edge seems normal. Not sure what you mean.
Before, when I first started investing, I invested in cryptocurrency, not interested in stocks, and thought that investing in stocks would be profitable, just less, slower than cryptocurrency. But later, I spent some time to learn, it is no different from cryptocurrency, it has a cycle of increase and decrease after a few years, only a few stocks increase strongly, most of them are losses, and a few stocks increase strongly will carry the whole market. before we had altcoin season because market cap was too small, number of coins was very few, easy to pump everything up 100x, now it's bloated and more and more like stocks, money is not easy to earn, you have to accept that profit is less but profit is guaranteed (BTC-SP500), lucky to pick and have higher profit (SOL-NVDA), choose something that worked well in the previous cycle and is getting worse (ETH-GME), or other things with even bigger fluctuations, terrible profit/lost everything
"Crashing" ... You guys need to chill. Price going down does not equal crashing. To answer your question, you need to learn about market cycles. The market isn't just constantly reacting to news. There is a consistent and ongoing oscillation between undervalued and overvalued that takes months or years to play out. Day-to-day news is usually just a blip in the overall cycle. Currently, the market (SP500, NDX) is extended and should experience a short-term pullback, before we continue moving up. Look up Stan Weinstein's market cycles.
I am bullish on BTC and ETH long term, and so is my old fart financial advisor. I am not bullish on XRP long term, and neither is my old fart financial advisor. I would highly recommend moving into either BTC, ETH, or an SP500 index fund depending on risk apatite. Market has been overheated for a long time, consider a short term, 15 month, buffered UIT.
i looked at the chart of that crisis before, if i remember correctly SP500 dropped -50%, gold dropped -25%, and they recovered in just 2-3 years, totally a scratch compared to crypto, but mentioned by stock guys like "Dementors" in harry potter, weak guys 🤣
Bitcoin is a far better investment than the SP500.
Personally I own bitcoin and will be holding long term but it does make me wonder, its currently 5th highest asset in the world by market cap, and its only up 15% this year? For example my stock portfolio is beating my crypto portfolio by far this year. I feel like we are looking at a whole new crypto market versus to years prior, I'm not seeing the crazy gains in percentage gains we would see in years prior, seems like volitatlity has decreased substantially, crypto for the most part specifically Bitcoin seems too tied up to the marco market settings now than ever before, we used to see bitcoin have green days when the SP500 or NASDQ had red days but now it seems they are all correlated.
SP500 needs to fill a gap and BTC over-reacts, so alts over react even more. But, as a rule of thumb, don't try to find real world or macro-economic reasons to a manipulated drop to clean leverage and spot positions that were bullish. It's all about kicking people out of the market, always.
Because 🤡 blocked me because got upset I called out the bad advice I will never apologize to someone who literally told people to borrow from their future selves and destroy their credit chasing intro APR credit cards…. That’s literally the worse advice I’ve seen on Reddit and there’s a lot of bad information. It’s bad enough people don’t save enough for retirement but you think borrowing from it for a few percentage points, even if that’s right, is crazy not to mention the opportunity cost of the loan amount uncompounded. SP500 is closer to 14-16% CAGR and you telling people to borrow against their 401k instead of bitcoin to save a 1% interest
I know we're on r/bitcoin but my advice is to: diversify. Add SP500, add real estate. The only value of BTC is that people buy it now in the hopes that people will pay more for it in the future so they'll make a profit. If you think all currencies global-wide will collapse and we will buy our milk with BTC, by all means, but if something remotely close to this will happen, it will be a government-issued coin/token instead.
Personally, I don't really believe in the counter-inflation, "fiat is a scam" story that keeps coming up within redditors. The mainstream media is not telling this story. In fact, the mainstream media hasn't been telling any BTC story lately. The last of the BTC pump was driven by the whole treasury thing. We're just waiting for a new pump now. BTC is just another asset with a specific market value. Its value is whatever the market believes it to be. It takes all sorts of marketing and exposure to get it to pump. You look at any asset: fiat, real estate, gold, SP500, stocks. They are all pumped by the market. It's like a religion. It takes believers. All of these assets are pumped up so far far beyond it's intrinsic (utility) value.
Ya, buying a house certainly doesn’t always make sense. Renting can be pretty great. The nice thing about buying is having a 30 year fixed loan here in the states. You are basically shorting the dollar for 30 years, you may pay double the asking price, but hope the property triples or quadruples over that time. Plus, at some point anyway, it’ll be cheaper than renting. May take 5 years, may take 30, but it’ll be beneficial at some point. Will it outperform BTC (or even the SP 500)? No. No it won’t. But everyone has to live some where.
My man, if the SP500 can drop -50% and more, unregulated crypto can dump you into oblivion without breaking a sweat
because SP500 as a whole has a much higher market cap, so its harder to move
what u talking, btc is down over 10% from its ath, while SP500 isn't even down 1%
I just watched Raoul's video and I'm pumped. TLDR: How could just this be the end of bitcoin & crypto when the business cycle is just starting soon (ISM), Global M2 rising, US liquidity coming soon, russell 2000 about to breakout, nasdaq is still strong, SP500 is strong, we are in a historically good seasonality quarter, US govt shutdown ending soon, tariff situation will eventually resolve sooner or latter! Within the next few weeks or a months! Is it fair to ignore all this and lose faith, just because some lines on the charts looks bearish?!
Yep. I got in at $94k and not even a year later i took out all of my whopping 0.10Btc at $118k. It started to feel scammy. Im just gonna cruise along with SP500 and NASDAQ stocks.
Bitcoin has performed better than the SP 500 this year
SP500 yearly inflows through index funds of around 10 billion usd Microstrategy = 0.14% of Sp500 = 14 million a year in inflows I think you're the one overestimating what that will bring