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I think it’s cute you want to believe bitcoin has any real value outside of hype. SP500 has not been selling off and is currently near all time high. Unless you want to argue that Bitcoin is correlated with open door and pltr type shit stocks. Which again proves the point that Bitcoin is all hype
Bitcoin is not correlated with the SP right now at all, as has not been for the past year since the HYPE has died off. Not sure what you are looking at
SP has performed just as well as BTC for the last 5 years, without the insane volatility. BTC showing signs of diminishing returns.
That would mean a CAGR of just 7-8%. If you believe that you should rather buy SP500
My realistic target is range between 50k-70k. I think we can go to 50k if SP500 have 10% drop. Usually in midterm year May-October is the worst. Thats why DCA is the best plan
SP500 has been on a rampage the last five years, in large part due to the AI boom.
I’m showing how much the five year returns fluctuate based on the current date. From the bottom of a bear, we’re close to SP500. Two months ago the same analysis would have showed 5000%+ returns. Over almost all five year periods, Bitcoin massively outperforms SP500. The fact that we just had a massive crash and are still close to SP500 returns on the five year chart shows just how much upside is possible with Bitcoin for those who hold for five years.
Point is that holding for five years make any volatility during that time irrelevant. At the end of the five years, either you’re up, or you’re up a lot. Doesn’t matter if it dipped 80% along the way. The last five years has shown that the SP500 in the best case is roughly on par with BTC in the worst case. And buying BTC at anywhere other than the top has massive upside over SP500. If held for at least five years.
Invest in the SP500, invest in blue chips, pick some nice growth stocks like RDDT, why even make a list of coins like one is different from another, they’re all pump and dump ponzis, including bitcoin, which is simply the first to do it.
I am in a similar position to yours, but the thing is, I am not selling. I didn't buy bitcoin to use it in the next years. I bought it so it can allow me to retire in the next 10 years. And for that, a 50% drop now feels like a way to stack cheaply. It obviously hurts, but the thing is I wasn't gonna retire in 10 nor in 20 years by investing in the SP 500. I'm a slave of the system. So might as well invest in the only thing that might give my a chance to financial freedom. I would have gotten more stats had I waited a few months, but well, I can get cheap stats now, and lower my cost average.
It has potential to drop to 45k if SP500 keeps slipping in a scary way. Will be a great tome to buy regardless. BTC will be over 200k in 2-3 years again
This has been stated over and over (even by myself in the previous days) since months now. Yes, investing in Bitcoin was a worst choice than in the SP500 5 years ago, just when I entered. Thank you for reminding me.
Sure, like Dec 2020 -> Dec 2025. Five year period. >5,000% returns. Ironically, what OP showed was that even in the absolute worst case (buying at a cycle high and selling at a cycle low), as long as you hold for 5 years, Bitcoin STILL gets pretty close to SP500 returns. On the other hand, if you buy somewhere lower, like now, 8-10x returns become possible, as long as you hold for 5 years.
Even during this drawdown BTC have outperformed SP500 exactly 5 years ago so far.
Im not sure what are you looking at but you are lying or something. [SP500 from last 5 years is +82%](https://i.imgur.com/j6kG6WC.png) [BTC from last 5 years is +92%](https://i.imgur.com/NIYTyGW.png) Even with your divident counting SP500 have not outperformed BTC.
Well with AI its highly likely that 90% of public companies are replaced with a private company in the next 10-15 years that undercuts them and puts them out of business because of needing 100x less humans. So I fully expect the pool of quality public companies to be even less. TBH the Mag7 are the only relevant SP500 companies already.
Yesterday I had a gem user explain to me it’s more likely that the entire SP500 goes to zero than BTC. Ended with them saying “good luck staying poor”.
Why I’m gambling? I have 4 yard horizon minimum. And I’m pick the best active for invest, how I think(I can’t invest to gold or SP500) I just want more solid investments for the future.
This is especially worrying as normally the Stock Market and crypto beforehand were closely related. Now we had days where the SP was reaching a peak when the crypto was falling off a cliff. It is worrying and denying it serves no purpose but to push a narrative of blind trust.
We don't do comparisons, because it's clearly different now to last year. Down is down and the whole market suffers from uncertainty. Yes there are assets that are more stable or even bullish but many of those are non-US assets or non tech stocks/blue chips. When the general market is in the red (SP500), precious metals are in the red and Crypto is in the red, then the whole market has a major correction or general uncertainty. The market is never fully down. There's always a winner. But generally the popular assets said to have the most upwards potential are down.
It’s really not the whole market. Stocks fell with crypto back in April, they’ve barely moved down this time. SP500 is down a measly 2% compared to the 20%+ back then
You're gonna hate this... Bitcoin’s price target at zero Feb. 05, 2026 11:01 AM Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor Richard Farr, chief market strategist and partner at Pivotus Partners, has issued a stark prediction for Bitcoin (BTC-USD), setting a price target of zero for the cryptocurrency. “Our BTC price target is 0.0. That’s not just for shock factor. It’s where the math takes us,” the strategist said, noting that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has failed to function as a dollar hedge and instead operates as “a speculative instrument correlated to the Nasdaq.” According to Farr, the cryptocurrency faces insurmountable obstacles in gaining institutional adoption or serving as a legitimate medium of exchange. “No serious central bank will ever own something where Michael Saylor controls the float,” he said on X, referring to the Strategy (MSTR) executive who has accumulated massive bitcoin holdings. The strategist also criticized Bitcoin’s environmental impact, stating that miners “are bleeding cash” while the network remains “horribly inefficient as a transaction processor and wastes tremendous amounts of energy.” Farr’s assessment aligns with warnings from Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, who cautioned that falling Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices could trigger a self-reinforcing “death spiral.” Burry noted that Bitcoin, down more than 40% from its October peak, is now “exposed as a completely speculative asset” that does not qualify as a debasement hedge like gold (XAUUSD:CUR) or silver (XAGUSD:CUR). “Sickening scenarios have now come within reach,” the investor wrote in a Substack post. The speculative nature of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has been amplified by its correlation with traditional markets, according to Burry, who noted that BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 (SP500) has reached 0.50. He warned that if prices fall another 10%, Strategy (MSTR) would be billions in the red and could “find capital markets essentially closed.” Spot ETFs, he added, “have only boosted Bitcoin’s speculative nature” while increasing the token’s ties to stock market movements. Should Bitcoin (BTC-USD) decline to $50,000, the consequences could be catastrophic for the broader ecosystem, according to market experts. Burry warned that miners could go bankrupt while “tokenized metals futures would collapse into a black hole with no buyer,” as corporations de-risk by liquidating profitable positions. The investor noted that up to $1B in precious metals was already liquidated at month’s end due to falling crypto prices, illustrating the interconnected risks facing digital asset markets. Here's the link.... https://seekingalpha.com/news/4547997-bitcoin-s-price-target-at-zero?mailingid=43960801&messageid=2900&position=rta_news_bankr_fullrollout_hysa_main_0_title&serial=43960801.14990&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=43960801.14990
Yup, SP500 was at 666 during financial crisis and it was end of the world. Bitcoin is the same, it will sky rocket like sp500
The SP500 futures turned at 666 in March 2009. I know because I bought some at that price. Unfortunately blew them out at 680 a day or two later.
If you bought the SP500 all year last year you’d have better returns
Fiat world assets? Do you mean something like SP500?
I think this will most likely be what happens. Bitcoin people have bought into a religion, and it's based on belief, first and foremost. I don't have that belief, so am a heretic. Very much like a Scientology SP, which I also am. I did buy $6000 worth of two crypto ETFs on literally the day I found out they existed, and sold for about $36,000. Dipped a toe, but have always thought it was likely CIA created and a psy-op to keep people away from real assets during the great reset. Mind you, I AM NOT 100% sure of this - or anything, really, so all you angry and sad believers might be right, and maybe I am the asshole here. But - the folly to me is that this group seems like a group that never considers that people like me might be right. Just watch what the responses to this are, besides all the downvotes. Sorry, but in the brief moments when I look at this group from afar, to me it looks like a group that deserves to have this happen to it. I respect your overall fight and the ideas that you protect as sacred - but this is not a healthy group. It looks like a giant group of brainwashed people that are freaking the fuck out because their bulbs are collapsing, and they are in denial and panic that there even could be another picture that they are not seeing. Sorry for the tough times, whatever happens - but anyone that ever goes mostly into one asset class is always set up for some level of disaster. Some of you might leave this will little more than a huge life lesson. Who knows. I sure don't. Do you?
SP500 will give you better returns in a 5 year basis at this rate and with much less risk
Everyone is guessing. Here is my guess. What we are seeing is just part of the normal cycle. The price will bottom around $60k and then go up over the next couple of years to hit $300k+ There will be a significant market correction in the SP500 due to the high valuations reverting, AI bubble bursting or some kind of global/Trump related turmoil. This will results in a liquidity crisis and aversion to risk which will lead to a major Bitcoin sell off. A $25k bottom is possible, followed by the expected recovery up to $300k. I'm hoping for the latter and am going to start averaging in quite soon at the sub $70k prices.
MS used an accounting loophole to list his unrealized gain as income to try to get in the SP500. Well now his own accounting mumbo jumpo is coming back to bite him in the ass. If you disregard the loss as "misinformation " then you have to disregard his last few quarters profits as misinformation as well.
Many people were waiting to see if bitcoin could beat the S&P once ETFs were established. It has now been a year, and BTC did horrible compared to SP. However, I still believe it is still too early to tell if it will eventually beat it, but I highly doubt it. People are risk adverse; SP is historically safe. Why risk it? This is also coming from someone who owns bitcoins. Put your money into the SP and you can play with BTC, but don't expect moon lambos.
Could you do it for the SP500 in comparison?
First; an investment budget is by definition a budget of money which doesn't go towards mortgage, necessities, vacations etc. So if everything there is wiped today, while I would be pissed as shit, it wouldn't affect our day-to-day. Furthermore, those money are already "lost" in a sense that they are locked in for the forseeable future as I'm not planning to cash out anytime soon. Second: My allocation is textbook perfect. At one point I had over 2/3 in 3-years bonds because I knew we would buy a house in 3 years. Otherwise it might look something like 75% SP 25% BTC, but if I see that BTC dropped drastically and SP is at ATH I might do 100% BTC for a month or so. I'm not sure why you keep insisting this is an "addiction" or something bad for my family lol, looks like projection to me. Have you lost big chunks? Are you ok?
131% over 5 years beats the SP500. Also, if you bought in the bear market period within the past 5 years, you’d be up well over 300% over a shorter time span. This is a bear market period — think about that.
SP500 Dump = BTC Dump. Nasdaq Dump = BTC Dump. Precious Metals Dump = BTC Dump. Etc. Do Bitcoin follows when all of these recovers? Ofc not, it stays flat until the next dump making new lows. We can’t even recover to 80k, literally no bidders in this market anymore, just people that are underwater holding or forced to cut loses because they need the cash. No person should be still bullish about Crypto at all, I think everyone already have the mentaility of a bear market.
BTC has a much higher likelihood of going to 0 than the SP500
1. Very low interest- crypto used to be the shiny object to chase that returned 5-10x at least, but market has moved onto stocks, AI and metals. Why chase losses in crypto when everything else is in the green? 2. Poor regulatory clarity- allegedly there is lots of interest in crypto from institutions but they are hesitant to invest in it without the passing of the Clarity Act. 3. Use case- there still isn't a very clear use case for crypto, outside of sending money. Sending money is important but a token is never gonna go up if people just send it and immediately sell. BTC continues to plummet amidst every market environment, tariffs on/off, wars starting/ending, gov't shutdown or running, etc. BTC was marketed as a hedge against inflation and gov't problems, but it has failed recently at both. If it cannot sustain itself in those times, why are people buying it? Making matters worse is the fact that there are more attractive trades out there- gold and silver have skyrocketed, AI trades, even just holding the SP500 is doing great. 4. Too many projects- too many memecoins and other random projects that are for shills and grifters. Liquidity is spread super super thin as people chase massive returns quickly. 5. Massive whale selling is contributing to falling price action as well. Tons of OG investors are liquidating, and why wouldn't they? A lot of them bought below $1k, and even at today's price, it's still a 70x.
50 percent of my savings are invested, the other 50 percent i keep as liquidity. I have currently frozen my btc accumulation but I continue to DCA in SP500 etf index. My portfolio is 80 percent index 20 percent bitcoin. This is not advice, this is me saying how to play it safe. Take it as you wish.
The stock market has just started to decline and that's going to make it even worse for BTC. If the SP 500 has a -20% correction, BTC will be down to $45k. We are in very dangerous territory and Nasdaq, and the mega tech stocks are also at huge risk here with the potential of a -35% decline.
Post is by: One-Asparagus-319 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1qt84rw/bitcoin_v001_alpha_if_you_could_go_back_to_2009/ The README file for Bitcoin version v0.01 ALPHA, released by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009. It's surreal to read these lines knowing what this code has become: Bitcoin v0.01 ALPHA Copyright (c) 2009 Satoshi Nakamoto. Distributed under the MIT/X11 software license. See the license.txt file or http://www.opensource.org/licenses/mit-license.php. This product includes software developed by the OpenSSL Project for use in the OpenSSL Toolkit (http://www.openssl.org/). This product includes cryptographic software written by Eric Young (eay@cryptsoft.com). Supported Compilers \------------------- MinGW GCC (v3.4.5) Microsoft Visual C++ 6.0 SP6 Dependencies \------------ Libraries you need to obtain separately to compile: Default download path wxWidgets \\wxWidgets [http://www.wxwidgets.org/downloads/](http://www.wxwidgets.org/downloads/) OpenSSL \\OpenSSL [http://www.openssl.org/source/](http://www.openssl.org/source/) Berkeley DB \\DB [http://www.oracle.com/technology/software/products/berkeley-db/index.html](http://www.oracle.com/technology/software/products/berkeley-db/index.html) Boost \\Boost [http://www.boost.org/users/download/](http://www.boost.org/users/download/) Their licenses: wxWidgets LGPL 2.1 with very liberal exceptions OpenSSL Old BSD license with the problematic advertising requirement Berkeley DB New BSD license with the additional requirement that the linked software be open source Free Boost License similar to MIT OpenSSL \------- Bitcoin does not use any cryptography. If you want to do a full build of OpenSSL to exclude the cryptographic routines, some patches are needed. (OpenSSL v0.9.8h) Edit engines\\e\_gmp.c and put this #ifndef around #include <openssl/rsa.h> \#ifndef OPENSSL\_NO\_RSA \#include <openssl/rsa.h> \#endif Add this to crypto\\err\\err\_all.c before the line ERR\_load\_crypto\_strings: void ERR\_load\_RSA\_strings(void) { } Edit ms\\mingw32.bat and replace the parameters in the Configure line with this list that excludes everything. You need to put this in the batch file because batch files cannot handle more than 9 parameters. perl Configure mingw threads no-rc2 no-rc4 no-rc5 no-idea no-des no-bf no-cast no-aes no-camellia no-seed no-rsa no-dh Also remove the following line in ms\\mingw32.bat. The compilation fails after it has already finished compiling libeay32, which is all we are interested in, but the failure interrupts the script before it executes dllwrap to generate libeay32.dll. REM if errorlevel 1 goto end Build ms\\mingw32.bat If you want to use it with MSVC, generate the .lib file lib /machine:i386 /def:ms\\libeay32.def /out:out\\libeay32.lib Berkeley DB \----------- MinGW with MSYS: cd \\DB\\build\_unix sh ../dist/configure --enable-mingw --enable-cxx make Boost \----- You may need Boost version 1.35 to compile with MSVC 6.0. I couldn't compile version 1.37 with MSVC 6.0. Here, Satoshi lists the supported compilers (MinGW GCC 3.4.5, Microsoft Visual C++ 6.0 SP6) and manual dependencies: wxWidgets, OpenSSL, Berkeley DB, Boost. He even gives instructions for removing encryption from OpenSSL, because "Bitcoin doesn't use any cryptography"—only hashing and proof-of-work. It's an open-source, minimalist, almost handcrafted project. No pretty GUI, no exchange, no ETF, nothing "To the moon." Just an idea, a whitepaper, and a .txt file explaining how to compile. Did anyone here attempt to compile this version in 2009 for various study purposes? Or even today? What were the biggest challenges? Ironically, Satoshi says, "Bitcoin doesn't use any cryptography." Today, how much of the discussion about BTC is about technology, and how much is about speculation? People celebrate having 1 BTC as a life milestone. In 2009, you could have mined hundreds with a regular PC. What changed? Us? Or the dream? \*“Distributed under the MIT/X11 license.”\* Perhaps the license was free, but the freedom to understand the historical moment was not. Here's an excerpt from the code of version 0.01 for reflection (genesis block): “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks” It seems that Satoshi was already writing not just code, but a manifesto. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
i expect to see this start this year---their ETFs came online last year and this year as well. They can prop it up years, if not decades. See the SP500.
I'm short but thinking about when to start DCA. I've already set up an IRA with weekly contributions and buys into SP500. Its hard to time but then again OCT 10th 2026 is the obvious day. So before then I'll convert to a BTC ETF then (on fidelity)
Far from it. Lot easier to predict the SP500 or even the weather than bitcoin
Sorry! Meant to say I’d wouldn’t be withdrawing, but changing my holdings from zero expense SP500 to bitcoin!
Thanks for the input! I would just be mildly adjusting my holdings. Right now I’m in zero/low expense mutual funds (essentially 90% SP500/NASDAQ) and the rest international fund. Was thinking about dropping some SP500/NASDAQ tracking funds to maybe have 10% FBTC (like 0.25% expense fee). The only issue is that if fidelity or the bitcoin get hacked, the fund and investors will lose money.
Bitcoin is -30% in past 3 months and -32% in past 6 months. If Bitcoin were a stock in the SP500 (500 stocks listed) and sort it by performance: 3mo performance: 491st 6mo performance: 485th If you limit it to top 100 largest stocks: 3mo performance: 99th (ahead of Oracle -36%) 6mo performance: 97th (ahead of Intuit -36% and Oracle -33%). It doesn't feel like Bitcoin is doing terrible but stocks have been in a bull market so it is alot worse than it looks.
in case you haven't noticed, bitcoin is basically an institutional product now---pitched as higher returns than the SP500 but w/ more volatility---they'll prop it up and make money off the massive swings, holders will see the promised returns...
If Bitcoin were in the SP500: 3 mo performance: 28% down -- 11th worst 6 mo performance: 31% down -- 17th worst Pretty rough recently, hope it does better.
Its not so bad as it sounds probably. Say the next top in 4 years only reach 126 k again. If your average is 88 that will give 45% up. Divided by 4 years that is 10.4% a year. Thats a classically good return, basically the average return of SP500. Anything you manage to DCA down before that will enhance the gain. Probably you should not sacrifice everything else to DCA because thats depressing, but DCA a little here and there. Also next top will probably be higher once again, which will enhance the return. The scenario I gave is bearish in my view.
There are some similarities, but you are being too reductionist. Yes, the stock market is definitely inflated by passive 401 (k) inflows. There are many well-published academic papers showing that SP500 passive DCAing is a key driver of PE expansion relative to real growth and a vast decrease in liquidity-adjustment efficiency. Now let me tell you where you run. 1) SP500 is basically a hedge fund, not the stock market. You aren't stock picking. The hedge fund is doing all the work, and its market-weight approach skews towards a survival-ship bias. People are DCAing into it because of simple consistency and familiarity. Your "memecoins" these days are just new runners to generate volume to print fees for launchpads and trading apps. Your activity is really about centering attention on a game of hot potato. Hence, there is no room for stupid passive investing. The adjustment of these metas happens so fast; a lack of consistency in preferences, no follow up bid after hitting certain market cap etc., means a fund using a market-weight approach, like the SP500, is doomed to tend towards zero. The VCs understand that their best way to earn a slice of this market is to keep things dispersed and profit from selling volatility. It makes things predictable and milkable. You want to fence the cows and sheeps rather than let them roam free.
Probably because it's on a 4 year cycle. BTC never just went up and up like the SP500... ever. So some research
Make sure to get an open source btc only cold wallet. And start diversification, I would suggest something simple like SP500 or VWCE, heck I'll say it, even government bonds if you wanna spend it in the next 5 years. Preferably you should have something that you can use up in the next 5 years and something that is for the long term 10-20 years or more. A lot of people advise 100% btc but if you want to buy something in the near future (car or home or whatever) you cannot count with that, also a hassle to sell still.
Why do u think VT would be better than SP500? Curious
Never smart to put all your eggs in one basket. I’d put at least half into a broad etf/index fund. SP500 is fine. Total stock market (VTI/VTSAX) or entire world (VT) would be better IMO. But your instinct to invest a lot at a young age and to do so consistently regardless of price (dollar cost average) is right on. As a third bucket I would build up an emergency fund of cash so nothing derails your DCA strategy.
Very green? SP500 going down 0,50% at the moment
Wait till SP500 or gold retrace... now that's going to be a bloodbath
Same old garbage as usual. First you check for Trump tweets, then for US economic report releases if it was around 8:30 am est on a weekday, then check whatever SP500 is doing, and then finally if none of those look like the reason it is the good ole fallback of crypto being pumped or dumped due to manipulation
My dad told me to buy a house in his state in 2017. I told him I dont have money. I put it in ETH. I went down -95% in 2018. Since 2020 I am a multimillionaire. My NW high was 3.9M USD. Of course it has been around 700k as recently as 2025 after the Trump tariffs. Currently 818 ETH is worth 2.4M. How much have homes appreciated? 150k? I used to own stocks before I got in crypto. I doubled my money in around 4 years. I had like 30k so it wasn't much but same concept applies. Now I pay rent and it's about 25k/year. If I want to pay my housing expenses, I just need my investment to cover more than 25k/year. Once I sell my ETH, I'll never buy a house. I'll rent and keep my money invested. Rent is a rounding error. If you did math you would understand but instead, you will keep insisting on the same poor mentality that keeps everyone in debt and poor. My credit score is 830 and has been as high as 848. I never had debt. I have a bachelor's degree and I'm currently in a masters program paid by my GI bill. I wish you people could just listen to advice instead of repeating the same shit that keeps you all poor. It's better to invest in growing assets. Not necessarily crypto. The risk isn't for everyone. But say SP500 is relatively safe and grows 10% per year. How much does a property grow? And have you considered the price of your mortgage? You pay nearly double in interest, taxes and repairs. Right now my electrical panel is busted and my landlord will pay my entire monthly rent in repairing that shit. I sit back and call him to come get it fixed. The cost of opportunity is wasted when buying property. As I tell you this story, my dad bought a property worth 260k in 2017. Today it's estimated value is \~400k. And instead of having 1 400k property, I have the cash to buy almost 4 similar properties after I pay my taxes. Mind you that ETH is actually sucking right now. So what I want you to consider is the purchasing power and what offers you more purchasing power. "Owning" (you never really own. Either you pay your landlord or you pay your government, your HOA, your maintenance and repairs) or actually maximizing investing. You can talk about the history of civilization but if owning homes made people rich, no boomer would ever be poor.
Just think.. more and more are putting it on DCA and forgetting about it. More and more are being exposed to it indirectly, whether they like it or not.. because a company in their employers 401K plan SP500 has BTC exposure. Limited supply with consistent DCA? Look at Silver :D
Exactly... I was frantically buying not that long ago at 115K. Unless you think it ain't headed back above 125K this is a glorious buying chance. About a 40% increase back to 125K. Average SP500 return is about 10-12% annual. Even if you assume 3 years at 12% return, that would JUST break even with the 40% increase on BTC from current price to prior ATH
Nope unless you already are a millionaire and buy a dozen bitcoin won’t get you there sorry. Not on the short or medium term. Just see bitcoin as a ~15% CAGR asset from now on. Similar to how the SP500 is performing during bull years. You need to adopt the FIRE mindset and save most of your salary each years for 10-20 years to retire early.
You should look at the overall risk-on environment that small cap index funds are showing and forecasting. Once you understand what they mean, you wouldn't sell. We are on the verge of a massive run-up in crypto. Whenever the Russell 2000 and SP600 (not SP500) convincingly break past their previous ATH resistance that has rejected them for many years, crypto has always proceeded onto have a face-melting parabolic rally. This is because the business cycle and manufacturing index have bottomed by putting in a base. They're curling up. When that happens, small cap stocks and crypto outperform drastically. The catch is that crypto has a 7-15 week lag following the breakout of Russell 2000 and SP600. I'm using objective data, not subjective opinion about cycles.
SP500 being all-time high means everyone wins, as long as you're playing
ironic, since SP500 is up 13% over the last year versus BTC which is down 12%
I mean, yes, it's a win, better than a bank account for sure, yes. It's still a worse investment than the SP500 in that period, which was the point I did stress out and got spit at for.
Perhaps we are - in a few years we will be able to tell for sure. Meanwhile, I find the correlation between SP500 and bitcoin quite high.
AI coins are has beens. Check out fetch.ai price history, that turd is worth 10 percent of its ATH, or so. When you say you're in the eth ecosystem I thought you had knowledge in eth programming and cryptography, not that you were a bag holder. And yes, Bitcoin and Eth didn't perform well compared to SP500 stock market over the last 5 years, you're absolutely right to laugh at crypto price performance in that period.
Yep BTC, gold and SP500 for the most part.
Want to do this in the future maybe. Right now building wealth with BTC only, but I could see myself buying some SP500 in a few years.
Check $MSTR P/E ratio it was 7 last time I checked. The SP500 average is 20-25 so its way behind the average, I really like checking Strategy's fundamentals because it gives me good analysis for bitcoin, the TA and charts mean absolutely nothing.
That's kinda what I do right now, I have BTC, Canadian Bank ETF, a QQQ ETF and some SP500 related ETFs.
You don't even need to go looking around, the SP500 is up 16% on the year.
Anyone who thinks Bitcoin did not serve well over four years needs to look at sensible numbers. A passive DCA strategy is the objective way to evaluate- not some cherry picked window. And that shows Bitcoin giving a total return and IRR of 130% and 45% pa compared to 42% and 18% pa respectively for a similar SP500 strategy. And don't bleat about risk. If you don't like volatility, then you should go for bank interest.
No reason for that. People are built different. Some people want kids some people don’t. My only point is that sometimes BTC is not everything. Different people value different things at different stages in life. Even for you, one day you may want the stability of SP500. That’s “why own anything other than BTC.”
What people care about depends on their life stage. Someone that wants to build wealth should rent and invest (SP500 is enough). But for someone that wants to have a family, buying a house is important. Buying a house offers stability. Yes you may “spend more” but there is value of stability. For example: kids don’t ever have to move for 10-15 years. Can build out backyard. 100% control over asset, no evictions or issues from landlord. Buying a house is a luxury but there is value in it.
https://inflationchart.com/btc-in-bigmac/?time=1%20year BTC still did pretty badly last year according to that metric, which is why when people say that stupid 1 BTC = 1 BTC thing it is dumb. All assets are measured in relation to other things because it shows if you would have made more money in something else. You would have been ahead last year investing in the SP500 or gold instead of BTC, that’s not good. Hopefully 2026 erases this aberration.
Well, if you ask this in a BTC Reddit section, everyone would go for it. I bought BTC many times in the past, and always got back way more money that what I poured in. Time is your friend. For short period of time? No. For the long run, maybe yes. Would you buy SP500?
1. Save 3-6 months worth of total living expenses and put it in a high yield savings account. This is your safety net. You lose your job. You get into a car accident and can’t work for 3 months. This will keep you afloat until either disability kicks in or you find new work. 2. Open a Roth IRA, max it out every year and invest the money in that account into something that tracks the SP500 (VOO or others). You don’t have to get too fancy with this unless you want to learn a lot about stocks and start picking individual ones. 3. With anything excess, BTC. Crypto in general is a bumpy ride, so be ready to see big red on some days and big green on others. Keep the emotion out of it. If your excess at the end of each month is $100 (meaning you’d be spending it on something you don’t really need or you’d be ok losing it in a casino without starving or jeopardizing #1 or #2), then buy $100 of BTC each month and don’t worry about it for 10+ years.
I'm going to 2010, buying 20 BTC, shares of NVIDIA, google, and loading up on a SP500 ETF, making sure to sell everything mid december 2024, then going all in on April 10 2025, and then selling half the BTC on October 5 2025. And around then I'm pulling up the drawbridge from the moat so none of the riff raff can get too close to my castle.
I know i am in crypto subreddit but i am gonna try to be reasonable. You make a post crying about lost savings and you proceed to make up three options which are still basically gambling. Altcoin buying is still gambling. Yes you can shift the chance on your side with a bit of research, but it still is gambling. There ino 1-2 conviction plays, there is no better entry, there is no diamond hands. For a low of god, get your money out, put 80 precent to proper investments like SP500 or some stocks and then use 20 precent of it to choose from your options. If you are not gonna do this, you will be here two years later, crying exacxtly the same.
What exactly is option C here? Look, you *could* diamond hand this shit, but the reality is, all of these projects will probably never reach your entry point again. Will they pump? Maybe, but then you are in a situation sweating bullets trying to time the market. What is more likely, is they'll continue to trend downward. If I were you, I'd cut my losses, because I do think it is going to get worse for these positions, not better. You could wait three years to reach your entry point, but in that scenario, you've also blown the opportunity to get into something that will actually generate return. You lose twice waiting on this shit. Sell it all, and move it into BTC and ETH. These two assets will out preform your current position indefinitely. If you are feeling risk averse, convert to cash, and move this into a simple SP500 fund. Maybe consider a buffered position. At the end of the day, I don't think you'll benefit from holding this shit. Cut your losses.
I do the opposite: 80% BTC - 20% SP500
Even as orange pilled I am, don’t put all your investments into bitcoin. I do 50% Bitcoin (BTC), 40% SP500 and 10% shitcoins and prediction markets
Post is by: 007TheLostOne and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pupuvy/should_i_still_stay_in_crypto/ Hello all, bear with me this is going to be long, I hold ETH, BTC, and SOL. There are a few questions that have been bothering me for a while in crypto. Recently I have lowered my bullish stance on crypto and this is not due to recent market sentiment but due to my own deep analysis. 1. We have been seeing massive bullish news for crypto this year with institutions, legislation and governments but yet that doesnt not reflect on the price action of these assets. Why is that? 2. Liquidity is massively moving away from crypto and into other sectors like AI especially retail investors. We have even seen bitcoin miners moving that way and going towards AI infrastructure needs instead, IREN is a big example of this recently. Why? 3. Institutional investment, I know I said this is bullish but one thing all institutions dont like is volatility. Those days of crazy periods of volatle gains and losses seem to be over specifically speaking on Bitcoin, if you look at the charts there have actually been a few periods this year where Bitcoin was less volatile then the SP500, I think with greater institutional investment this trend will increase. The downside of this will be lower CAGR, so if its CAGR drops then why should I stay invested into it? When there are other sectors that are massively outperforming and more likely will in the future also? 4. Last question, this is a big one for me. But I do believe crypto tech is the future, however in saying that, you dont need to buy the underlying asset to use its tech. Ethereum is a big example of this, its usage is at record high but yet its price is negative for the year, the layer 2 protocol is being used massively, but L2 compression means less ETH used per transaction, the only time ETH is required is a bit for settlement at the base layer, so its tech is being used but its not reflected on the price. Also another crypto I used to be in chainlink, its the most adopted crypto infrastructure by legitimate organizations like the SWIFT banking system yet its down 50%, again just because institutions are using its tech, you dont need to buy the actual crypto. Now the big one, bitcoin, it got sold to us as "digital gold", doesnt seem to be that way, governments and institutions are flocking to gold and silver for monetary debasement instead of bitcoin, gold and silver are at record high and not showing signs of slowing down, bitcoin isnt special it requires liquidity just like any other asset. The projected CAGR on the big crypto assets has fallen, with estimates being from CAGR 8% to 15%, ironically this year its in the negatives. So in saying all of this, I'm at a dillema because I'm seeing the broader market vastly outperform crypto especially specific sectors like AI, space, energy. So I ask myself this question if the CAGR stays between that range then why should I stay invested in these assets when there are better opportunities for future gains outside of crypto? I'm open to all discussion. Tell me what you agree or don't agree with, I'm a very open minded guy. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
A rough way to figure out dollar debasement is just to use a large market like the SP500 Index and see what they return is and subtract about 3%. Productivity is rarely more than 3%. The rest is inflation including debasement. So I person consider the bar to be about 7%.
Stop the biased view. Why is ChatGPT one of the most valuable companies? Why has Facebook and Google and Amazon such good investments? THAT's called adoption. FAST. Low adoption doesn't mean shit if it doesn't grow. You think it is at 3% and still has 50% to go? How about it's at 3% and will max out at 4%. BTC is just not that useful and popular. Meanwhile, AI is useful and will become popular. Bonds, GICs, gold, SP500 - all have high adoption because they are useful.
Ahm, SP500 accumulating ETF went up \~412% in 2012-2022, so your math is wrong from begining. That's 15% CAGR. Yes, still much over official inflation (which is wrong), and also more than M2 money supply rise.
Yeah they’re wrong. Sp does more than keep up with inflation. SP500 is incredible place to grow wealth long term and anyone that says otherwise shouldn’t be trusted. Sp500 investing has created countless millionaires. Not comparing it to btc by the way, purely talking about sp500 here.
What would the burst include? Like the Dotcom bubble that dropped %50 of the SP500 or what percentage does the sp500 need to drop for the bubble to burst?
Personally and realistically if I had to invest it. I’d do 60% SP500 20% GOLD 20% BITCOIN but I am Australian so $1mil is more like $750,000AUD
I believe housing has largely underperformed in many areas (even 'before') compared with for example SP500. Leverage in a mortgage skews this but generally speaking if you had put 100,000 usd in a house 100 years ago vs 100,000 usd in a SP500 equivalent, you'd have done better in the stocks. So, in summary, things haven't changed as much as you might imagine. It's just that the previous generation tended to use housing as their vehicle to amass wealth and the barrier to entry to other asset classes is far lower now. Do I think buying a house is a good investment? Most of the time, no. That said there are far worse things you can spend your money on. Cars and boats for example. But, like others have eluded to, there are certain intangibles about buying a house that makes it 'feel' secure for a lot of families. And, a mortgage is a great way to 'force' someone to build equity into something rather than spend it away frivolously as they might be more naturally tended to do. And, just like buying a car, buying a house is an emotional purchase. Not quite the same as looking at numbers on a screen. People do it for all sorts of reasons -some illogical- but as long as people do it, there will always be a market and values will largely hold (but still underperform).
Is the money printer comment accurate? If so. Inflation at 3% means products (SP500) companies are producing more value for the money they get from us (deflation)
Institutions are buying BTC. But they are also buying bonds, SP500, gold, etc. They have huge investment accounts that need to be managed. Institutions buy because they have extra capital. They have extra capital because the economy is good. They have extra capital because their internal growth has topped (ie. they have nowhere to invest it into their own company). BTC price increase is driven by overall economic growth.
BTC is not a hedge against inflation. People need to stop thinking that. My BTC fucking deflated 25% during last year. It was suppose to \*beat\* inflation. Instead, prices grew over 30% faster than my BTC. Low interest rates = better for economy = SP500 goes up = Gold goes up. BTC price is driven by success of economy. It's the last thing on the list to go up in price. What BTC is to most people is "hope". It works, but it has nothing to do with interest rates or "fuck fiat" mentality. If people hate government and fiat so much, why the fuck do they care about the Fed.
Nonsense. Just because the money supply / the total amount of money increases by a certain percentage doesn't mean inflation rises by that same percentage. He appears to argue that the SP500 returns get cancelled out by inflation, but they don't.
And the SP500 has more than tripled over the last 7 years
It's pretty crazy that some people here think that evaluating this bull run by the bear market low (15K) to the bull market high (126K) is the right way to evaluate the bull run. In a volatile asset like the crypto where people are always saying that you should hold (especially Bitcoin), the proper way to look at this is from the previous cycle's high (69K) to the current cycle's high (126K). And during that span of time, Bitcoin did not even go up 2x. That makes this a pitiful run. On the other hand, the 2017/18 bull market had a high of 20K and 20K -> 69K was around 3.5x so that was a good cycle. Now, the 4 year cycle is yielding rate of return that is barley discernible from SP500 while still being extremely volatile, which makes it a high risk, medium return investment.
SP500 is less volatile? Last year FSKAX (Fidelity SP500 index) was $162. It dropped to $138 in April. Now it’s $188. Barely beating inflation.
You’re forgetting another major factor. Crypto is way more volatile than stocks so people are willing to throw their hard earned money into a less volatile asset like SP500.
I was personally a believer in the 4 year cycle until now. Before, every halving the BTC halved was dramatic, it cut the supply drastically, the market cap was in billions or tens of billions or hundreds of billions. It's now 1.75 trillion, with the crypto market cap at 3 trillion. The halving's effects have diminished quite a bit, there are more long-term holders of BTC now than before, more companies and governments publicly holding it and not selling. I feel like we are just following the general market trends and macro events. The SP, QQQ , the general US market all indexes are down quite a bit for few weeks now, gold has rallied 60-65% this year, silver 120%. QE has just begun, it's only 40B but it's better than QT and the rates are being cut. We have stayed at 80-94k range for a month now, so unless we go down more and then rally upwards, the next move should follow the stock market and general macros, if stocks pump up and the next rally begins BTC will follow with much faster upwards growth. Since people already saw 100k+ and 120k+ prices, people now have those prices as targets and therefore it should reach the ATH again and surpass. I am purely speculating tho, however this time rates are being cut, and QE has begun. QQQ needs 7% upwards movement to reach ATH, SP needs 5.5-6% upwards to reach ATH, basically few trillion $ needs to enter the U.S markets to reach ATH prices. I am also assuming when GOLD and SILVER has a price correction, maybe back to mid to high 3k, those trillions of dollars will have to go somewhere, and with rates being lowered, it usually will head to the stock market or BTC.