MSTR

Medical-Molasses615

And you assume this time is the same? Despite an ever increasing number of coins being held in large reserves by the likes of MSTR etc. Despite that the mineable coins have largely been exhausted? These two factors combined completely destroy the entire concept of BTC. How is it of any value as a digital blockchain when coins will only become available when large reserves want to sell? The inflation of the price of BTC is completely controlled by these reserves which completely defeats the point. All that has happened is corrupt banks have been replaced by corrupt companies headed by former criminals.

NinjaN-SWE

I don't think so at all. Saylor makes his money from the compensation package he gets from his CEO role at MSTR. I doubt he holds any significant Bitcoin personally. To keep his compensation up he needs happy shareholders which means he needs to keep the stock value high, which means he needs to be a positive impact on the BTC price.  Personally for Saylor keeping this thing going is all that matters, keep the gravy flowing. Right now the wound is too raw for a lot of investors who bought at the peak but give it months to a year and he'll start babbling about how this is a great purchase opportunity to get BTC on the cheap before the next moonshot.  Rug pulling BTC at a new ATH would make no sense for either the company or Saylor, that just kills the gravy train for cash on hand they can't use for anything investors care about. 

PermissionPlusFour

Just because I called out a lie, doesn't mean I think they're untouchable. The idea that they'll get margin called is laughable, and just shows he little understanding people have of how MSTR works. You're right that they'll be in serious trouble if the market doesn't recover.

Crim3mast3rZ

People really think MSTR is untouchable and it's funny tbh. Let's see how they do in 2 years when the market doesn't recover. This clown has lied before and idk why people blindly trust him 😂 it's so over for them

Quietabandon

If bitcoin drops low and enough and forces some whales to collapse, maybe even force MSTR to sell then long term its good for bitcoin.  Having whales hold so much supply is bad for bitcoin. 

DubaiEnthusiast

> out of the money that MSTR put into Bitcoin, they put 1/3 of that money in their own pockets. > For this service they pay themselves the one remaining dollar. Are you saying that 1/3 of the money is paid to the executives of the company ? Do you have any proof of them 'paying themselves' so much money, or are you saying random stuff ?

Mobile_Collection646

can’t wait till MSTR gets margin called LMAO

Crim3mast3rZ

How green is MSTR now with those btc holdings?

chompah99

How does MSTR make money if they're never going to sell BTC? Is it basically a leveraged btc etf in disguise?

NatBitty

I do puts on ETFs / MSTR yes. And buy inverse ETFs like ETHD. Easier to just say short.

i_have_chosen_a_name

At that point there will be a spiral where you can heavily short Bitcoin which will lower the price, which will force MSTR to liquidate more Bitcoin to meet their financial obligations which will make the short profitable. Then you take that profit and open an other short, which lowers the price of Bitcoin which will force MSTR to liquidate more Bitcoin. Kind of like what happened to the stablecoin of Terra when it collapses. A downward spiral. Because MSTR controls about 1/4th of all the Bitcoins that get daily traded. And because most of that trading is washtrading. It could easily take 2 years before MSTR has sold their last BTC. That could take us to insane lows, like 5K and even lower. 2 years is more then enough time for everybody to realize it won't go up till everybody has sold first. News articles about MSTR their downfall with titles like "Bitcoin Death Spiral" would pop up everywhere. Most degenerates would be like: oh well we can't really make that good money with shorting as with longing but it's a low risk bet as the price is bound to go down and they will flip all their longs to short. So it becomes a self fullfilling prophecy. Once the true hodlers have realized that at the top everybody is now making money on the downfall of Bitcoin they will flip over as well. When MSTR is forced to sell their first BTC to pay for their financial obligations, that's when the market will be over for 5 years or longer.

i_have_chosen_a_name

His objective is to take 3 dollars from dilluting and selling MSTR shares and then put 2 dollars in to Bitcoin and 1 in his own pocket. He only sells those MSTR shares to degenerate gambles when there is hype. There is only hype when BTC is at ATH or close to. So he supports the tops. If he would buy the bottom he would have to do it with his own money because at the bottom there is no hype and so no degenerates to sell MSTR shares too.

DarkSombero

Can we shoot you a DM for elaboration?  For position transparency, I have and am planning for further PUTS on MSTR

i_have_chosen_a_name

Of course he will be. MSTR has financial obligations. At some point to meet them, they will be forced to sell Bitcoin. Or they can try to declare bankrupcy first and then eventually the liquidator gets their hand on the Bitcoins and start selling them to pay of some of the creditors.

i_have_chosen_a_name

Also Micheal Saylor lost nothing because he never bought the Bitcoin with his own money. MSTR sells shares. For every 3 dollars they collect selling shares they use 2 to buy Bitcoin with and ad it to their pot of gold. For this service they pay themselves the one remaining dollar. So out of the money that MSTR put into Bitcoin, they put 1/3 of that money in their own pockets.

Stray14

Ok numpty, MSTR has obligations that need to be satisfied, it very well could come to the point that those obligations can only be met with the sale of BTC. He is sweating bullets right now, I firmly believe his attempted to pump the market have overwhelmingly backfired and he is well beyond shitting it. My theory is the market will bottom after the cascade event MSTR will action. Sitting on my hands until then, it’s going to be sharp and hard, get your low ball orders in. Come find me in max 12 months to say, good call.

MyAnusBleeding

70% of my NW is in BTC and MSTR. I have no worries. This is normal

Old_Shop_2601

Sure, but as a business with loans to be paid back to banks, etc, you better don't accumulate too much unrealized losses. I better MSTR BTC were used as collateral to some other strategies, so margin call day getting closer. And once you gets margin called, game over

Important_Shirt_1567

Do you guys think MSTR will go out of business if btc drops too much?

HSuke

Yeah, they don't sell BTC. They just keep dumping MSTR until its price falls over 85% like last cycle. I'm not worried about BTC; I'm worried about holders of MSTR. Falling 85% this cycle would be MSTR at $60. And unlike last cycle, they have to pay back $8B over the next 4 years when they only have $1.4B in liquid assets, and they need to pay interest for preferred shares. It's not going to be pretty for MSTR share price.

Slight-Regular-3711

MSTR is going to be forced to sell soon. Some of these second order funds that invested into BTC by using MSTR as a proxy will sell their MSTR. MSTR will dip below 100. Then MSTR is going to need to sell bitcoin. That should send a ripple of panic selling. I know everyone is like BTC has done 50% pull backs many cycles....nothing different here. But there is something different. You have a huge amount of centralized institutional ownership who will not play the diamond hands game. And once they leave, I would not expect them to come right back. By the time they are ready, they might realize there are a lot other chains out there that are more efficient and have more utility than BTC.

tpc0121

at those rates, and if you're a bitcoin bull, i'd look into some of MSTR's preferreds. STRC, to be specific, and make some money off the arb.

Right-Avocado3870

I like that you are thinking about this and let me be honest that I have time reading their filings. But it looks like at the end of FY 2024 they had $25b in assets (prob 100pct BTC) and about $7b in debt. So in your analogy the person would have about $1.5 m in debt. Here's the thing where I was getting kind of hand wavvy about debt: MSTR has been buying shares by issuing preferred shares. Not technically debt, but those shares have a claim to the btc ahead of the common shares. If the price drops the assets can get sucked out quickly. It's hard to understand the financial structure. I think intentionally so.

perma_banned2025

There are ~400,000 BTC traded per day currently, MSTR hold ~712,000 - less than 2 days worth of total trading volume. Realistically at no point will they need to dump all of their holding to service debt, so there's a near zero chance they could tank the BTC price by 90%. It would have an effect sure, but they are not bringing down the entire market

Every_Hunt_160

People holding MSTR stocks are sounding deluded, some of them really believe in Up forever and infinite money lol

FuckM0reFromR

As much as I want the BTC price to go up forever, one of the biggest BTC criticisms over the past few years was the concentration of holdings in institutional hands. The MSTR bankruptcy and forced liquidation will cause a cascading effect on many other institutional holders forcing them to also liquidate their BTC hodlings. This sudden dump and absolute cratering in price will cause a torrent of cheap BTC for small retail buyers to snatch up, causing a huge redistribution of BTC and provide an opportunity for almost anyone set a foundation for their generational wealth. But bitcoin will be considered "dead" at this point and many will watch in fear, uncertainty, and doubt as this lifetime opportunity passes them by. Bitcoin is here to stay as the longest running crypto currency, and as the internet's "native" digital, stable, and decentralized medium for value exchange. Do with that what you will...

FuckM0reFromR

As much as I want the BTC price to go up forever, one of the biggest BTC criticisms over the past few years was the concentration of holdings in institutional hands. The MSTR bankruptcy and forced liquidation will cause a cascading effect on many other institutional holders forcing them to also liquidate their BTC hodlings. This sudden dump and absolute cratering in price will cause a torrent of cheap BTC for small retail buyers to snatch up, causing a huge redistribution of BTC and provide an opportunity for almost anyone set a foundation for their generational wealth. But bitcoin will be considered "dead" at that point and many will watch in fear, uncertainty, and doubt, as this lifetime opportunity pass them by. Bitcoin is here to stay as the first and oldest crypto currency, and the internet needs a digital, stable, and decentralized medium of value exchange. Do with that what you will.

gizram84

Great rebuttal. I loved all the facts and logic. Keep up the good work. I'm sure you'll be right and MSTR is surely done for now!!!! 50% dilution coming!! The sky is falling!!! Ohs noes!!!

Pikajeeew

You can’t make this shit up lmao. People like you are the reason MSTR has done what’s it done for so long 😂😂😂

gizram84

"Raising equity" doesn't magically dilute shareholders. What are you even talking about? Only issuing newly created MSTR shares dilutes shareholders. You don't seem to understand anything about this at all, yet you're acting like an expert in the matter.

Bucser

Thing is, he didn't. At least not with leverage that you can margin call on. MSTR bought it for Equity convertible bonds and newly issued equity on which they pay very low interest.

Time_Classroom_3234

Yes that is how it works. The bond holders are not exercising their convertible option, MSTR is raising equity to pay off the bonds, which right now, would dilute shareholders by 20%.

oldbluer

But then they can’t buy… negative mNAV will keep MSTR from taking on new debt. They are pretty trapped at the moment

DubaiEnthusiast

> not a single anti MSTR post lays out at what price and when they would be “liquidated”. There won't be such a post, because there is no 'liquidation price'. Redditors realised that the sentiment about MSTR is at rock bottom, so they're consistently churning out the anti-MSTR posts to get some karma. As you said, there's a lot of emotion but there's barely any substance.

HSuke

> Strike price doesn’t have any bearing on the convertible bonds, so long as the convertible bond obligations are fulfilled, no matter the strike price. Interesting way of phrasing it. What do you think their convertible bond obligations are, and how are they going to fulfill them? I'm just trying to figure how you think this will play out in a realistic scenario if MSTR falls to $100 and remains there until 2030.

Calm_Situation_1131

The bonds maturing next have a repurchase provision where the bondholders can force an early buyback in Sept 2027. That's \~19 months out, not 2.5 years. MSTR common stock will get crushed as this date nears and BTC stays flat or down because the redemption provision will eat up \~$1B in liquidity, in addition to the preferred payouts. And then there is a $6B wave of redemptions possible in 2028.

Kagemand

Either way MSTR goes to 0.

bam-RI

My understanding is that MSTR decides that.

mingeathinaikos

Tipping point? When does Saylor own to much? Interested in thoughts around MSTR continuing to buy bitcoin. Most Bitcoiners seem to think it’s great that they keep buying, but I’m not so sure…. Under the thought experiment that they own all Bitcoins, there would surely be no value to them, as there is no desire for anyone else to have them at that point, and MSTR don’t want to trade them for fiat. This extreme example is clearly not going to happen, but there must be a tipping point where they are reducing liquidity to a point that it negatively effects the demand. May be a simplification, but I also think of every time MSTR buys coins, this is off multiple parties, and these trades are essentially one party believing in Bitcoin and multiple smaller parties not believing in Bitcoin. In a market that is struggling to convince the wider market that Bitcoin is relevant, I feel like increased MSTR ownership % of the pool results in less ‘people on the train’….

Acidom

I see a lot of emotional posts, but not a single anti MSTR post lays out at what price and when they would be “liquidated”.

bam-RI

This has been discussed in the investing section. See https://np.reddit.com/r/investing/s/OwevovURGO My conclusion is that the price of Bitcoin is less important than the share price as the whole "business" model relies on diluting shareholders to pay dividends and interest to creditors. In effect, Saylor has used shareholders to buy himself Bitcoins, and so long as the shareholders believe, he can use their money to finance his scheme. Because MSTR has relatively little other income.

UnknownEars8675

I constantly consider buying some MSTR because I know that will send it and bitcoin down further, which woud make me very happy. Or, they go up and I have to live with the profit. The reverse hedge.

HSuke

Realistically, I would expect them to sell MSTR first until mNAV is well below 1. If they did sell Bitcoin, I doubt it would exceed 5-10% of their supply. But even selling 5-10% of their supply would send huge shockwaves and cause BTC to plummet.

dannyshalom

Acting like there's even a single MSTR stakeholder currently that isn't completely on board with the Bitcoin strategy lmao

HSuke

That's because $6B out of the $8B in debt they need to repay redeems 2.5 years later. I'm worried about how much MSTR price will dump when they sell it to get through year 3.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Michael Saylor's company, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), is now $630 million underwater on its Bitcoin holdings as Bitcoin's price fell below the company's $76,037 average cost basis. This marks a loss of $47 billion in unrealized profits from four months ago. Despite the downturn, Saylor remains committed to his Bitcoin strategy, emphasizing its broader accessibility through Strategy's equity structure. Critics argue the company's heavy buying influenced Bitcoin's rise and its current inability to buy more may impact prices further. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

AnnHashaway

I agree. There are definitely risks, and they're nuanced since MSTR doesn't fit into traditional models. Certainly more "educated guesses," since we can't point to past outcomes. The purpose of the comparison was to hopefully spur a little curiosity, and maybe get a few people to look deeper into things. I think the overall MSTR narrative is a bit dramatic, but what else is new. Fear sells.

Juus

That is a crazy idea. Why would he ruin his life for that philosophy? He would still be very rich without MSTR

Quietabandon

Did Satoshi want volatility? Nothing in the manifesto suggests the speculation driven volatility or Bitcoin etfs were in Satoshi’s vision. I think he envisioned a more functional high volume trading currency.  Giant corporate whales like MSTR also would seem against the spirit of Bitcoin. MSTR going defunct and fire selling their Bitcoin would be the best thing to happen to Bitcoin and create the liquidity necessary to generate lasting utility and value. 

usa2a

One teensy tiny little difference in that the retired maxi can sell BTC for cash any time to make ends meet if they need to, nobody will know and the market will not even flinch. They would rather sell at high points than low points but really they'll be fine selling a little here and there to meet expenses for the rest of their life. MSTR on the other hand really, really, does not want to sell even a single coin, because it will be public knowledge and will greatly reduce confidence of MSTR shareholders. It's already hard to justify holding MSTR when it's basically a 1:1 proxy for BTC. Why would anyone want it if they begin selling BTC so the amount held per share is shrinking? This would cause the shares to trade at a big discount to BTC, making it very hard for them to raise any more cash from share offerings. That would in turn increase the odds of them having to sell even more BTC and if they start really dumping they could crash the whole market since they hold like 3% of the total supply. It would be a death spiral.

dwshorowitz

Microstrategy and their listed financing vehicles (i.e. STRC) are going to singlehandedly implode the the price of BTC and bankrupt MSTR. When peak financial engineering gets stress tested, the blowup is glorious. Grab your popcorn.

Standard-Top-5942

Is this correct? Saylor's MSTR is valued significantly under NAV ... so society considers him and his company as having essentially negative value all things equal. He's literally a parasite on the world (not to mention the immorality of holding all that money and not doing anything productive to society with them).

Regret-Select

As long as MSTR csn generate money to buy Bitcoin, or take out dent to buy Bitcoin, they're probably fine even if Bitcoin is unrealized losses I don't think MSTR does this currently, but you can short Bitcoin and turn profits. Not saying they should or shouldn't, but, would make sense I'd they did give it a chance to make some short term realized gains Companies don't need to buy everything at once with pure cash. MSTR could be debt, Bitcoin goes does, MSTR shorts and makes short term realized gains to pay debt

Catchdown

I think it could go down to like 20k. Like who knows? If you had a crystal ball you'd be swimming in cash. I totally see MSTR getting liquidated and selling their btc stash causing a market crash. The possibility is real

Scary_Caterpillar226

Saylor’s price average is around 71k. If we dip below that number and MSTR has to liquidate some of their btc, we most likely will experience a large (er) drawdown.

NatBitty

This is amazing. MSTR puts now up 350%.

Degster26

Buy MSTR to diversify the portfolio.

NatBitty

Another beautiful day to hold ETHD and MSTR puts

Traditional-Roll-620

Do you hold some of MSTR stock?

Internet_is_tough

Institutions sell - The most relevant institutions are bitcoin treasuries. There has been only one sale of BTC from 200 crypto treasuries in 2025. MSTR is a ticking time bomb - MSTR is 10% levered into their BTC purchases with convertible dept and payable dividends. They already have enough cash to cover the dividends for 2 years, the convertible dept needs to be serviced in tranches starting at 2028, and they can easily roll it over. MSTR will not sell a single bitcoin unless BTC price goes below 25k and stays there for a decade ETF inflows do not go up - IBIT was the most successful ETF launch in history. In the history of the world. 1.5 years after all big financial institutions have launched or are launching multiple BTC related ETFs (income, leverage, non leverage, crypto industry etc). Sounds like a failure right? Treasuries dumping - The treasury business model has no dumping as part of the strategy - MSTR has survived the crypto winter, prices well below their average buy price, BTC sold? ZERO. Treasuries are lean companies, BMNR is run by 10 people. They don't need cash. They have no reason to dump besides buying their own shares if MNAV is way below 1. Leverage is insane. 10/10 event was the single biggest liquidation event in history. All the leverage has been wiped from the system. The only leverage actually left is short. QE - irrelevant speculative. So yes wrong on 6/6 points.

teh_herper

Time to short MSTR

dweeegs

> As for our earnings guidance, I also want to reaffirm what we communicated three months ago, which is an operating income target of $34 billion, a net income target of $24 billion, and an EPS target of $80 at the end of this year. Again, all assuming a Bitcoin price of $150,000 This was MSTR’s last conference call just 3 months ago I’m tuning in Thursday just to hear the circus

jotunck

tfw your BTC average is lower than MSTR's

MonkeyKing676

I hoping that since I'm investing in MSTR and IBIT, they end up moving right along with Bitcoin

JustLTFD

The whole original argument was “will MSTR sell their BTC..” So mNaV DOES mean a lot because if it never drops below 1, then you are correct, they would never have to sell BTC, they would sell more stock to pay their debts and dividends. If it does drop below 1 then they need to sell BTC to raise money to pay their debts and dividends. This isn’t fantasy land, mNAV will CERTAINLY drop below 1 very soon. Good luck pal!

Hungry-Kick1389

Isn’t that kind of MSTR strategy? 😂

i_sniff_glue80

What are your thoughts on MSTR? Would you consider buying it instead of BTC if the MNAV went under 1?

marcvv

According to Michael Saylor, Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the world. Yet [$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) invested over $54 billion in Bitcoin over the past five years, and as of now the company is down about 3% on that investment.

marcvv

According to Michael Saylor, Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the world. Yet [$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) invested over $54 billion in Bitcoin over the past five years, and as of now the company is down about 3% on that investment.

_Doomer_Wojack_

MSTR is down 8% today and going lower .. don’t know what you are talking about

K42st

I’d rather not argue with you because your limited knowledge of the subject you are discussing is confusing you. Mnav under 1 makes no difference to Strategy because. 1) They are an operating company 2) They have a Bitcoin treasury 3) Their BTC buys are financed with mainly long dated, low cost debt 4) This is the big one, there is no redemption mechanism Why MNAV doesn’t mechanically “correct” For funds or trusts: • If price < NAV → arbitrageurs buy • They redeem shares • They receive underlying assets • Discount closes MicroStrategy has no redemption path. You cannot: • Hand in shares • Claim Bitcoin • Force liquidation So the market is free to price MSTR as: Anymore questions ask away but if you do your own research you’ll find out what everyone know there is no issues with Srategy!

CitronEmergency8805

So many of you were mad at Michael Saylor Last Week, now Look how MSTR is Green. Pls Trust in Michael Saylor, only he can Save this mess created by JP Morgan and the democrats

nutsackninja

MSTR does I don't think BMNR does.

Guest_0_

MSTR is down another 9% today, the stock is getting absolutely fucking crushed.

CitronEmergency8805

So many of you were mad at Michael Saylor Last Week, now Look how MSTR is Green. Pls Trust in Michael Saylor, only he can Save this mess created by JP Morgan and the democrats

NatBitty

Up 100% on ETHD now and 200% on MSTR 4/17 puts. Have completely offset and even gained above my IBIT losses. Thank you traditional finance for giving me these tools!

Content-Insect-8770

Well it didn't help MSTR. It's down 50% worse (6% vs 4%) than bitcoin itself.

BrilliantVoice371

There is no advice except put in what you can afford to lose. I’m all in with 1000 shares on MSTR and . I have been buying the dip with ladder limit buys and daily BTC DCA’s. I’m in it until the wheels fall off and bitcoin dies because I believe in this. And if I’m wrong, I won’t have any regrets and if I’m right I will have a nice chunk of change.

Blueberry_Dependent

mstr is nobody, just a company speculating with price action. They didn't even believe in BTC before calling it a scam but many people don't remember the old posts of Saylor. I believe in the system which BTC provides, the options of guarding your own money, transfer it quickly and without the need of approval from banks. System always being up and running, never downsides or outages. Many things positive and will become even more important in the world of BIg Brother is watching everything and controlling your money and desires. So again MSTR I don't care about them or if they sell their BTC, maybe actually I do care so we can all buy even cheaper more sats because of them.

froz3nt

Indeed. Probably also selling some of the stock of MSTR he owns too

DarrinEagle

OP - you can do this, ***but you have to wait 31 days***. If you buy the same or similar security, you trigger the wash sale rule and your supposed tax loss is disallowed. This is enforced by brokers because they report your income and gains to the government. I have sold GBTC and bought MSTR and Fidelity did not report it as a wash sale. But if you sell one security and buy the same or similar security within 31 days your broker likely will report it as a wash sale. The rule can also get you in reverse - if buy and then sell, or sell and then buy.

desertstorm4

MSTR has strong cash reserves to pay their obligations for 2 years. He will not need to sell BTC. MSTR has massive potential in the near term. The Yen carry trade is unwinding as we speak. Bitcoin is a 24hr market. The Yen carry traders need to pay their debts now and they’re selling their bitcoin. MSTR is like bitcoin with leverage, but without the decay of bitcoin leveraged ETFs. Bitcoin price will begin to rise sometime within the next five days when the carry trade fully unwinds. Those betting against MSTR will be forced to buy MSTR stock as bitcoin price begins to rise. I will be making dollar cost averaging buys of MSTR starting 2/3/26. Don’t be left in the rocket fueled cloud of dust.

Wild-Cup7515

Buying under 100k isn't risk free though. MSTR company acts like a convertible bond to give investors exposure to btc volatility. Saylor and mstr collectively own less than 2.5% of BTC supply. It's big yes but it wouldn't be radical to think of a situation where BTC hits 40k. Not to mention Trust in crypto lowering after Trump came into presidency and I don't say that because the price is down or it has volatile swings.

JustLTFD

Wait until MSTR goes bankrupt. Then think about entering. No point in considering crypto right now with them on the brink of starting to sell in under 2 years. It’s going to be ugly

mathaiser

So my June 27 MSTR leaps still have a chance? Lol.

cherrypoplar

He's obviously trying (and failing) to stop BTC from falling, and probably using up his so-called cash reserve in the process. Hasn't helped MSTR prices though.

Chemfreak

Sounds like i need to do more research on MSTR. I have avoided it like the plague because I would rather own the real deal at a non inflated price per BTC and I have enough long exposure on BTC.

Chemfreak

I'm not in the loop on how MSTR is structured, but does MSTR have the liquidity or cash flow to service its operating expenses? Just cause debt isn't due until 2028 doesn't mean there are no bills.

LargeSnorlax

Well, it just gets downvoted by the same people whining about crypto "not having a use case" because they literally know nothing about it. Look at the replies here, hell, most people only know crypto exists because Saylor told them nonsense about being a hedge or a store of value. How many times have we heard the same nonsense by people who show up here every few months from /r/valueinvesting talking about intrinsic value, or wsbers tying it to MSTR? Yeah, like, we get it, you lost some money, or you think it's funny the price goes down, but like, why spend time trashing something you don't know anything about? No one goes on /r/nvidia and calls Jensen a scammer to get internet points every day, that's just a sad existence.

JustLTFD

You clearly have not done your homework. Strategy will 100% have to sell BTC. Where do you think the $100 million a month comes from to pay their dividends? Right now it is coming from selling stock. But the mNAV has been on a constant decline and once it goes below 1, they can no longer sell stock. However, the debts and dividends still need to be paid. So please tell me where they get the money from? They have raised some cash anticipating this, but that cash will run out also. So please tell me what scenario there is where MSTR doesn't have to sell BTC. The only one is if magically they are able to keep raising money selling stock, but that's impossible.

PopLegion

Did I ever imply that Saylor is doing illegal things? I just said that's the only thing holding back MSTR from being a ponzi scheme, he hits the other 3 criteria, he just isn't committing any known fraud. If that were to change, it would be correct in calling it a legally defined ponzi scheme imo. I said it's not correct to call it that, so not sure why you are pearl clutching me over that. And no, MSTR fails regardless of BTC price action whenever Saylor misses a few funding rounds and can't accrue enough of other peoples money to continue growing his war cheat of BTC. Would BTC price have an impact on that? Sure. But in a world where BTC is perhaps appreciating at many multiples over the amount of extra BTC Saylor can accrue his previous investors, the entire point of buying into his company falls flat.

rgnet1

Recent downturn aside, if bitcoin trends precisely as it has since 2009 (i.e. upwards), is it still a scam? Again, the thesis is simply "bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom." Take debt in fiat and hold a fixed supply, non-centrally controlled asset like bitcoin. The rest works itself out. The only reason this fails is if the bitcoin experiment fails. And if it does, then MSTR goes down regardless. As to this statement: >The only thing holding MSTR from being legally defined as a ponzi scheme in my opinion, is at least currently we don't have proof of him cooking any books or posting fraudulent documentation Ouch. Guilty until proven innocent, I guess. Not really any way to argue with that, is there? Saylor's doing bad stuff because, well, because we don't know if he is!

PopLegion

The only thing holding MSTR from being legally defined as a ponzi scheme in my opinion, is at least currently we don't have proof of him cooking any books or posting fraudulent documentation. They do not generate much of any legit earnings, they fund old investors gains in BTC by gaining new investors, and they are constantly needing to accrue more capital to keep the train rolling. I agree that the market should work itself out, and I don't think Saylor should be stopped by some governing body or anything like that, as he is not breaking any laws. Doesn't mean it's not a scam though. I do think however many people here and generally have 0 clue how MSTR works and have zero idea that the entire thing is just one big constant cycle of finding more and larger investors to fund the growth for the older investors. And I think I am in my right to point that out on a crypto sub, and explain to people how this scam in my eyes is operating.

Formal_Lobster_2349

Because it’s a scam. MSTR is just a platform for the billionaires to exit their Bitcoin positions, just before the crash. The crowd doesn’t seem to understand this glaring fact, by the time they realize it will be too late.

rgnet1

Again: where is this a hidden agenda? Where are people being lied to? And also, isn’t the “entire return thesis” that “bitcoin value always go up”? All the obligations MSTR takes on is actually irrelevant if bitcoin itself goes up in value. Which is the belief of many, including Saylor. To clarify I have zero interest in holding MSTR. I think the real scam is people have been conditioned to believe we need any vehicle representing bitcoin. Everyone can custody bitcoin. That’s the f’ing point of it. ETFs are “great” for commodities that are expensive to transport and store - not so for bitcoin. Only banks want people to believe they should sit as middlemen for it. Only govs want it out of self-custody because it loses them control. But if idiots want to hold paper of an easy to own digital asset, then by all means let the free market allow Saylor to accumulate as much as he can.

PopLegion

The entire return thesis of Micro Strategy predicates itself to investors as the following: If you spend 100k on MSTR shares, those shares have a certain amount of BTC associated with them. As MSTR accrues more BTC, your shares will see an increase in the amount of BTC on MSTRs balance sheet associated with them. So while a 100k investment into MSTR may not get you 1 BTC of asset value currently, in the future, it may represent greater than 1 BTC. The only way for MSTR to accrue more BTC is through continued and ever increasing equity and convertible debt offerings. This means that new investors are being brought on, to find the gains of older investors, and this cycle needs to constantly go on, and constantly increase in size to have the desired result of your investors shares of MSTR have an increased amount of BTC per share. Sounds very much like a pyramid scheme to me.

Check_Me_Out-Boss

Dude has no problem committing tax fraud using MSTR. Why do you think they care about shareholders? https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/03/bitcoin-billionaire-michael-saylor-settles-dc-tax-fraud-case-for-40-million.html

dweeegs

The cash they have isn't to buy BTC at all. They do fresh ATM's every week to fund their BTC purchases. They already did a big raise last December to keep a couple year's worth of cash for STRC and other products they have There is nothing forcing them to sell within a remotely short time frame, even if BTC price gets halved. The next shot would be a year+ from now when their convertibles are due and I can guarantee they'll either refi or shit out more MSTR before he sells a single BTC. The dude is batshit crazy The risk from Saylor isn't to BTC it's to his "shareholders"

bam-RI

Its so simple it doesn't need math. MSTR has zero return on bitcoin assets yet it pays dividends. Where will the money coming from? Yep - the common share holders.

Maddcapp

If I were you, I'd sell now (or 75% of it) and monitor the price. It seems to be on a downward trend. If it continues to drop I'd buy back at a lower next level. If it starts to pick up then dca back in when the trend and macro conditions look better. That's what I'm doing with MSTR and I avoided the last month of drops. I believe in Michael Saylor and BTC but I don't want to hold the bag while it goes down. And remember, you have a very long time horizon. Longer than you realize. Any mistake you make now is a blip. But if you make smart decisions, it will give you a huge advantage later. I'd also diversify a little. Imagine what the price of gold, silver, Google, Apple will be when your 65. You're already smarter than most kids your age because your saving and thinking about these things.