MSTR

_SlipperySalmon_

I had hopped on board around $30per share then figured it was likely entering at too high premium to NAV so I sold off not wanting to make same mistake I did with late MSTR entrance... I dunno I'm assuming this will cool off as well? Maybe I should have held onto my $30 shares

Due-Dog5695

I buy MSTR in my roth IRA

acorcuera

I liquidated Mag 7 and consolidated into IBIT and MSTR.

RoyYourWorkingBoy

When big hitters like MSTR are buying, you get this nice stable bottom.

acorcuera

You’ll be better off with BTC than any other investment though, except maybe MSTR (I have both). BTC is the apex investment.

andys811

Long perps > MSTR calls

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Because it’s a shared security model with a binary outcome. Either the network is secure, in which case any one entity’s contribution is effectively a waste, or the network is insecure and the value of the holdings plummet. The incentive to freeload or simply not participate at all is large. Why would anyone run at a loss if they don’t know if their contribution will actually keep the network secure? Why would they put themselves at a disadvantage to freeloaders? Anyone who doesn’t help keep the network secure beats out anyone else who does, even if MSTR decides to help keep the network secure, they will eventually lose ground to those that don’t.

Oddsee

Who says they won’t? They don't right now because they don't need to. If we reach a point where the hash rate drops low enough to pose a real threat, presumably decades into the future, MSTR - likely one of the most powerful and influential entities in the world by that point - will have every reason to step in and defend their stake. They wouldn’t be losing out by supporting security - they’d be protecting the value of their holdings, just like any rational actor defends their own capital. Game theory doesn’t stop at freeloading, it includes rational responses to risk.

JJADu

If your tax free account (CELI in french) is not maxed out, I would put it all, or as much as you can in it. MSTR, MSTX, and BTC ETF. Split according to your risk tolerance and faith. If your account is full, lump sum in BTC, about 40K now and DCA rest with lump sums if it drop in the 80s.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

If the largest individual owner of Bitcoin won’t contribute to its security why the hell do you think anyone else will? The game theory is pretty straightforward, the incentive structure is to freeload, exactly like MSTR is doing. Anyone who tries to contribute to security instead of freeloading just loses out to those who freeload. The game theory equilibrium is network collapse as freeloaders gain more and more market share overtime until the system is attacked.

Miserable_Twist1

I don’t care about MSTR, it’s a systemic risk at this point, and it alone could cause a prolonged bear market and further tarnish bitcoin after said bear market is over.

Oddsee

Why does MSTR need to participate in the security of the network? Yes they - like most other users - are indeed freeloading in that sense, and that's fine. Shareholders of Amazon don't maintain the Amazon servers, and most people benefit from the internet without running the backbone infrastructure. We only need a relatively small number of specialized actors with aligned interests to maintain critical systems and networks. Besides, with the rate of growth of institutional and even nation-state participation, do you really think they'd sit back and allow a successful attack to happen without intervening? If adoption keeps growing up to the point where mining is no longer profitable, I wouldn’t be surprised to see systems emerge that boost the hashrate at a loss purely to reinforce security. Because by then the value of protecting Bitcoin will far outweigh the cost.

Realityhitshard23

I have no idea. But I saw this article explaining about it. Related to MSTR but i think it also refers to “whale companies” in its whole I presume. https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:16bff3db1094b:0-strategy-s-bitcoin-buys-should-be-super-careless-to-pump-price-exec/

snek-jazz

If you expect the price of bitcoin is going to go sideways until the end of 2029 then you should definitely avoid MSTR. I'm not expecting that.

M3Seriesz

This chart hasn’t price in what’s happening right now : Larry Fink, MSTR, BSR, nationwide adoption, banks custody, etc. This chart doesn’t mean shit

Fix_The_Money

Now you're ready to stack 100 shares of $MSTR. Then once you've got that, you can start selling covered calls. Then when you're tired of that, you can buy $MSTY

Thick-Ad5921

I have self custody. I learned I could buy ETF’s inside s tax free savings account. One bank did not understand what I was talking about. I did go through our existing wealth manager. He was not in favour of Bitcoin but he thought ETH had potential. Ultimately I put as much as possible into TFSA. I had to sign papers saying “not financial advice”, “very high risk” and “complete speculation.” Wife and I together started buying MSTR with $US. I doubled in 3 weeks. Same wealth manager called us in to separate MSTR from his (our) traditional portfolio because it was “distorting” the portfolio by growing too fast. Again, wife and I both had to sign the same papers I has previous. It is very odd that a wealth manager does not acknowledge the best performing asset 11 out of the past 14 years. So be it, more BTC for me.

DeeDzs

BTC for savings, MSTR for growth, MSTY for side income. MSTY would generate $2,000 /month low case scenario, or about $8000/month high case. Keep your job, until MSTY and your savings significantly outpace your income. There will be ways in the future to generate income from BTC and MSTR as well.

DeeDzs

BTC/MSTR/MSTY - take $250,000 out of your profit and split it 50%/25%/25% respectively. Keep $50,000-$100,000 in a 4% money market account for rent + emergency fund. Enjoy Life. Look back at this comment in 10-15 years on a beach somewhere sippin margaritas.

vijsha79

Selling Bitcoin until Fiat completely dies won’t make a lot of sense. It better to find out ways to generate yield off Bitcoin. One way that I have been researching about is: bitcoin - savings (60%) MSTR - Investment (30%) MSTY/IMST - Income (10%) In that framework when the post tax income from investment bucket goes to 2x your expenses you should be ok to quit 9-5. You might ask why 2x - Bitcoin is volatile and so are other assets built on top of Bitcoin and you don’t want to be in a situation where volatility goes down and your income can’t meet your expenses.

PresentAdvertising29

u/DrunkDoge420 u/GivePeaceaChancex10 I mean, I plenty believe in the fundamentals. I'm thinking more of a black swan event which takes down bitcoin, either something we can anticipate (i.e. quantum, MSTR collapses, taking bitcoin down with it and ruining global confidence in it forever) or something we can't even imagine right now. But, that's just me, I'm cautious by nature. As much as I feel bitcoin is the only thing truly worth investing in right now, it makes me VERY queasy seeing how large a portion of my portfolio it is.

PresentAdvertising29

Yes, I have this idea too! I'm wanting to buy long term, way way out of the money puts. They will be super cheap anywhere near the top. So there that, but I'm also thinking it would be prudent to insure against a disaster in general. For instance some totally unforseen quantum breakthrough, MSTR collapse, etc etc. I mean, I am way way past the point of "money you can afford to lose"...

MyAnusBleeding

No, take some MSTR off the top and convert to MSTY. I bought tons of MSTR early for the purposes of generating cash flows, there was no MSTY back then but I’d figured this kind of instrument would come along.

RealTimeFactCheck

He means you would have had twice the BTC per share if you had just bought BTC directly instead of MSTR shares So yes, if you own MSTR you are accreting BTC yield but you are starting off with half the BTC if you had just bought BTC directly

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Yes the developer/community response would require impeccable coordination and strategy, which is why it wouldn’t work against a single attacker with the requisite capital. The game theory is pretty simple, you’re already seeing it with MSTR, it’s called freeloading. MSTR has close to 4% of the circulating supply, yet pays almost nothing for transaction fees. In fact, if they had to pay for network security their entire investment thesis would fail. The vast vast majority of Bitcoin holders will not try and protect the network, they will try and freeload instead, and it will cause the network to fail.

heinzmoleman

First and foremost there needs to be an understanding that investing anything involves a certain level of risk. There is no such thing as a sure bet when it comes to investments and even less so when the instrument is delivering large returns. Of course MSTR and anyone else utilizing BTC as an investment expects it to increase in value as it has historically done. With this in mind the convertible notes due in 2029 are eligible for conversion at a share price of about $670. If at that time MSTR share prices are below that then they would likely see repayment using other means. This could be a mix of cash/stock to avoid massive dilution. Keep in mind these notes are unsecured, non-recourse, and carry little to no interest so nobody can ever really force MSTR to sell BTC. MSTR also has the ability to redeem distant notes early like they did in January with the 2027 notes.

ModestGenius66

It doesn’t work that way. MSTR can command a 2x mNAV because they are uniquely devoted to stacking btc, the software company now merely an afterthought. Any other company, including very rich ones like aapl and googl, would have as huge business attached to it. They would never be able to command such a premium as they would stay and fall with something that is not btc. MSTR is 100% btc risk and this is why they can play their game. XXI might be able to do the same on a smaller scale. I can’t think of anybody else.

rtmxavi

Wdym paying double the price? Its cheaper when priced in bitcoin for an MSTR share now?

solomoncobb

If bitcoin doesn't increase in value, then MSTR is a savings account. Duh.

Alfador8

Not really, they're borrowing money to buy bitcoin in exchange for price exposure to bitcoin via a trad-fi vehicle. People and entities are more willing to lend MSTR money to do this when bitcoin is doing well. That's why he jokes about buying the tops forever.

Bongressman

Because MSTR and a lot of big buyers do NOT BUY spot. The buy OTC, or by direct negotiated wallet to wallet transfer. This doesn't touch the spot price or market. This is why when Saylor buys, the price doesn't really move at all. He isn't touching supply in the spot pool. He is buying a large batch via a negotiated order placed with Coinbase. Likely placed some time before purchase.

Mageant

At a higher BTC price the MSTR stock price is also higher, so it doesn't matter that much at which price he buys if he is selling MSTR stock to do so.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

The capital will already exist, miners will be worth next to nothing as they will be unprofitable to run. Bitcoin is worth a trillion dollars. Someone could make billions off shorting it or Bitcoin proxies like MSTR. When rewards are only a few hundred million a year, there is going to be a lot of excess mining capacity that can be had for cheap. Someone will scoop that up and use it to attack the network and profit off the price decline. If that price decline doesn’t happen organically first.

MayorDepression

Its tough to understand Bitcoin and it's even harder to understand Strategy unless you have a background in finance. Bitcoin has to drop to $16,000 for a significant amount of time before they would go bankrupt. They are actually one of the least leveraged Nasdaq companies out there. There leverage ratio is below 30% last time I check. If you care, watch MSTR True North.

GaryPotter_

Certainly is not a private entity, very much public. $MSTR

heinzmoleman

A majority of the capital has come through ATM share offerings and super low interest convertible debt notes. There is nothing for investors to sell, in fact they have a vested interest to pump the price higher. The ATM offering is where most of the 21 billion has come from but its been an accreditive dilution in that more shares are offered but because the funds are used to purchase additional BTC the BTC per shares increases for everyone. It really is a clever idea, curious to see how it pans out in the long term but if BTC continues to repeat history than MSTR shareholders are going to have even more FIAT they can pump back into BTC.

heinzmoleman

You have absolutely no clue what you're talking about. Even at 16K per BTC, MSTR is still not forced to liquidate. It is at this number that it's holding exactly match its debt. I highly doubt we will ever see 16K BTC ever again.

DarthBen_in_Chicago

MSTR is a shitcoin

zooka19

Keeping an eye on ETH, BNB, XRP BTC, SOL & MSTR have done me well.

Whatnam8

It’s a double edge sword, if BTC doesn’t rise quickly enough he would lose investment interest so it’s in his best interest to keep adoption going while still accumulating because he believes it will be worth 1+ million a BTC. This allows both their holdings and MSTR value to increase to keep doing convertible bonds

Hvoromnualltinger

The conversion premium means that the debt is transformed into MSTR stock. Not hitting the various price points only means that the debt stays in cash, and has to be serviced. MSTR are not in trouble unless BTC drops dramatically from the current level.

snek-jazz

He's the largest shareholder in MSTR, he literally has more to lose by MSTR failing than any other person on earth.

ModestGenius66

Get Bitcoin risk in a tax efficient way. IBIT or MSTR. Unless your pension account is really fat, I don’t think overpaying is an issue. You’ll likely live healthy for longer than you think (unless you’re fat).

Swagi666

Well - short MSTR then if you dare...

Mantis-Prawn

MSTR is a public company, so all sources are to be found on their website. https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-3-billion-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-due-2029-at-0-coupon-and-55-conversion-premium_11-21-2024

Altruistic_Lost

Only right answer up to now. Makes one think ... Saylor is not doing it for the greater good. If he accumulated quietly he would run out of cash. With MSTR he can keep it up way longer.

dirtypins

Saylor is leveraged to the tits on BTC via MSTR. He thinks by being a Bitcoin salesman, his simps will protect his leveraged positions. Saylor’s opinions on BTC should be irrelevant to you, or any investor.

Cryptognito

Higher price = higher MSTR stock price.

VonnyVonDoom

I wonder what happens first. The government snatching his shit or MSTR exploding from maturing debt.

alineali

ETFs are not "not interested in selling". They sell if they have excess shares. Basically only proven noticeable "non-sellers" right now are MSTR and US government.

Darkerjev

Diversifying is the safe mainstream advice. But is it the right one for you? If you ever hope to change to a higher wealth class, then the goal is wealth accumulation. Diversifying is playing it safe, and will take a long time to get wealthy. “Diversifying is simply selling your winner for the losers” - Michael Saylor Im all in bitcoin. I have my own personal bitcoin stash in my cold wallet. A minor amount on exchanges. My Roth IRA is all IBIT or MSTR. My HSA is all MSTR. My 401k is 50% IBIT and 50% vanguard stocks only because it would allow me to go 100% bitcoin etfs. You can say it’s dangerous all you want, in 10-15 years I will be the millionaire while you “play it safe” selling your winner for the loser…. Make the right choice. Do your research.

Timstertimster

the point is that for now it's a private entity. what if one fine day, MSTR gets acquired by BlackRock, which then quietly converts the BTC to USDC or some such weirdness.

Nice_Category

No one really knows what's available OTC except the exchanges that participate in that kind of trading. Honestly, it's not really in the interest of the exchange to do too much OTC trading, because it stunts the value growth of their reserves. But in order to pull in big purchasers, such as MSTR or other large corporations, they have to offer some kind of deal to them. Eventually, it will run out, though.

el_rico_pavo_real

At the scale MSTR hodl’s there isn’t a mathematical reality where any buyer of size like that doesn’t pump the BTC price.

Freedom_58

If you want to invest in Bitcoin but don't want to go the Coinbase route, consider buying a bitcoin ETF, like IBIT or FBTC. Just another option for people who want the potential of Bitcoin. I have Bitcoin, FBTC IBIT MSTR etc. You decide.

DangKilla

MSTR is buying 4x the mining output. I guess he is hoping for a squeeze. The rich don’t sell their assets. If he is successful he will hold and just take out loans against his stockpile.

snek-jazz

> last recession took 2 years of decline to bottom out, a severe recession could last a decade I expect even 1 year of recession would do the following: * Lower interest rates considerably, which makes MSTR's bonds more attractive to prospective buyers. * Money printing to *stimulate* the economy, this will lead to asset inflation and decrease MSTR's debt in real terms. > Would you like to invest in a coin where of the pool 5% is traded, meaning a whale, any whale could crash the price any given moment.

Nice_Category

The thing with Saylor and MSTR is that now they cannot have any other company as their competitor. Every other company from here on out that decides to buy Bitcoin will only increase the value of MSTR. If another company decides not to buy Bitcoin = more for Saylor If another company decides to buy Bitcoin = MSTR's holdings increase in value They've already won.

ValorousAnt

Everyone should look into MSTR business model and the history of Michael Saylor. I've never liked this guy. Yeah he pumps the price but it is such a fragile system. Liquidation chain reaction just waiting to happen some nasty day when world economy takes a big enough hit.

snek-jazz

There's no debt due for over 2 years, and even that willl be already re-payable as shares by September next year if MSTR wants to, and it's only 1 billion anyway - less than they raised by selling shares last week without even causing the share price to go down. There's no chance of MSTR struggling any time soon.

snek-jazz

> Where is he getting it from? Selling newly issued shares > Is he printing coins? No > If using ATM, why? Because the share price is high enough that it means the dilution from the new shares is less than the bitcoin they can buy with the proceeds from selling them. In short bitcoin per share goes up, despite the fact there are more shares. This raises the floor of MSTR since assets increase but debt stays the same.

Due-Dog5695

I got some stock payouts at work when bitcoin was 35k and went all-in there. Then I moved my HSA into MSTR. This was before the ETFs and I had now other option. I still DCA a small amount daily and add new MSTR when my HSA funds hit. My HSA has gone 8x while my BTC has gone 3x. My plan is to never sell.

imwco

Ya bro, his entire model is selling the thing he can print, MSTR shares. He then uses that to BUY Bitcoin to manufacture the Bitcoin valuation upwards

ItIsRaf

Well a lot of people are bagging the short term raises on MSTR, TSLA and BTC

ItIsRaf

If he is doing dodgy accounts, can you bet he will announce at some point MSTR bough 21 million bitcoins 💀

StonksPeasant

I think the only ones capable of catching MSTR at this point are countries. MAYBE if a Mag 7 got in and started buying without releasing they are buying until quarterlies. As soon as they announce then the price would spike

jenya_

> That’s the basis of my concern Reddit says: > They use custodians to hold their bitcoin.. According to their SEC filings they diversify custodian risk by using more than one (CB is one of them). Another source says they use 3 (CB, BitGo and Xapo) but they could have increased that number since. From MSTR SEC fining: > We hold substantially all of our bitcoin in custody accounts at U.S.-based, institutional-grade custodians that have demonstrated records of regulatory compliance and information security.

NashDaypring1987

Thank you. Will do. I started to buy IBIT in Roth and MSTR in my taxable account.

Freedom_58

Thank you! May I suggest something for you? Since you have 4 years before you retire, do this, if you haven't already thought about it. Max your Roth 401k. Of course, check for income limitations. You can contribute up to $8000 since you're 50 and over. Contribute to your 401k but only enough to take advantage of your employer's matching. Add to your brokerage account. After taking care of your family budget and maintaining your emergency fund, you can buy more Bitcoin. Or you can buy Bitcoin proxies in your brokerage account. IBIT FBTC MSTR etc. Just thought this may help you. Good luck!

Jaykalope

But they didn’t accumulate over a couple of days. Are you saying MSTR only buys on exchanges and exchanges hold all of their bitcoins? I’m looking for actual proof they have acquired and hold the bitcoins they say they have acquired in the past and hold today.

Jaykalope

But they didn’t accumulate over a couple of days. Are you saying MSTR only buys on exchanges and exchanges hold all of their bitcoins? I’m looking for actual proof they have acquired and hold the bitcoins they say they have acquired in the past and hold today.

iamez221

You might want to consider getting some Bitcoin though. With $MSTR you've got a huge third party risk. Maybe divest a little to have a proper risk management.

Prestigious_Long777

MSTR is not the way. Take self custody and buy your own Bitcoin!

NashDaypring1987

I think you made the right choice. I agree with other posters.. you should keep some BTC on a cold wallet. I do all three: IBIT (Roth and low operating expense), MSTR (leveraged BTC play), BTC on Leger HW wallet.

Realistic-Jelly8133

1. MSTR hype is tied to Bitcoin hype. The less it falls over the weekend (and observationally it seems that this has happened quite a bit), the more momentum both BTC and MSTR have going into the week when the ETF buying kicks in. Saylor has also said that he's price insensitive so he may not care about being a price support over the weekend and potentially getting less BTC for his fiat. 2. Can't argue with that. Maybe he bought last weekend too and his average of the two is 92k. Just trying to have fun with different scenarios. Seems like we're all on the same team, regardless.

Jaykalope

Where are the on-chain records of these purchases? Certainly there must be some obvious and easy to find ones given how much MSTR has purchased. And further on that point, if his investment thesis is sound, why are large holders selling their bitcoins to him at the current price? Why not hodl and wait for the price to hit $1m or whatever?

el_rico_pavo_real

Has anyone smarter than me run any models to see what the numbers will have to look like for CEP to “Be a better BTC company than MSTR”? Do they plan to acquire more BTC? Or use some other metric to determine “success”? My brain can’t fathom how anyone catches MSTR at this point.

Realistic-Jelly8133

My guess is that the announcements on Monday premarket are to drive a MSTR pump so that he can sell ATM shares into it. Then he hoards that cash through the week, buys slowly over the weekend to maintain liquidity in the BTC market, then repeats.

tinudu

100% agree. Owners of ETFs or MSTR will one day be 6102ed. They call it the "strategic bitcoin reserve".

Weitarded

I’m going to laugh for a year straight if he grows MSTR into “too big to fail” territory

AllCapNoBrake

There's PLENTY of paper/IOU BTC to be sold and re sold. Hell, Coinbase keeps reselling MSTR's 500k bag.

clicksanything

You’re a legend mate. I personally hold btc in self custody cold storage and ~250 shares MSTR in my tax advantaged accounts… but Im also in my late 20s with a lot of working years ahead and it was ez for me to learn. Yeah technically NYKNYC blahblah but imo your setup makes a lot of sense for someone at 59 entering retirement.

Kmyre5

He posted out of desperation. He can't get mor money through selling MSTR stock, he is purely reliant on number go up to avoid bankruptcy.

Mantis-Prawn

It is showing MSTR's purchasing, yes, he has also been buying the top. 

Kadival

The orange dots are Strategy's (MSTR) Bitcoin purchases. He tweets it every time Strategy purchases more Bitcoin.

ManlyAndWise

I don't know how much Bitcoin I own. If I say "I have 1.4 BTC in IBIT and at my broker", people answer "not your keys, not your coins". So the only Bitcoin I own is the around $3000 in my cold wallet. Then I also have 800+ shares of MSTR, which have an intrinsic BTC value (undiluted) of 1.6 BTC. But then I don't own the Bitcoin of that, only the shares; like that guy Saylor, who thinks he owns $9bn in bitcoin, but actually doesn't because he doesn't have the keys, so not his coins. So actually I own $3000 in Bitcoin, but I am stacking. I am "only" 59, so banking on several more years of stacking before I call it a day. Someway I feel quite relaxed about the future, though...

clicksanything

In light of MSTR’s recent name change to Strategy, BlackRock has decided to follow suit and rebrand to “Rock” moving forward.

Mak333

MSTR - If you can get 100 shares you can start selling covered calls with virtually no risk of losing money, and only gaining passively.

Freedom_58

From what I read in your past, you need to learn more about Bitcoin. I don't claim to know everything about Bitcoin but it's a large part of my portfolio. I also have MSTR, IBIT FBTC, and Bitcoin miners. I will sell those before I sell Bitcoin, if ever.

Mak333

My wife and I are doing something similar. We have 3 main investing accounts, which I am controlling. About 30% is her money, and 60% mine. **Account #1:** Bitcoin (20% of overall funds). **Account #2:** MSTR (45% of overall funds). **Account #3:** Aggressive growth in ETFs and individual tech stocks. This is not our overall funds - We have 4X of the aforementioned accounts in two different 401k accounts.

acorcuera

I’m 40% BTC 40% MSTR.

acorcuera

I invest in both BTC and MSTR.

theazureunicorn

MSTR and MSTY Create a self reinforcing perpetual flywheel of digital abundance- all feeding on each other

j592dk_91_c3w-h_d_r

It’s gone up a lot for sure. But still only a market cap of $400M. I bought some this week. I admit I don’t have a good sense of what it should bd priced at, but it is sort of giving early MSTR vibes.

Hochzins

I got about 45% Bitcoin with BTC being 80% of that and MSTR the rest of that portion

ModestGenius66

Yes but if you buy today you run the risk that the operation does not completes as planned. If it completes as planned you are paying a mNAV around 3, MSTR at around 2 seems the better choice.

ModestGenius66

I will look at what their business model is. If it’s very similar, I will buy every month (when I get paid) the one that has a lower mNAV. However, it seems to me that MSTR will have advantages in selling bonds because of their bigger scale.

marcio-a23

100% on MSTR Every normie would say i am crazy but i am happy with results

Aggravating_Apple430

You use MSTY to drip or buy more BTC / MSTR?

Astropin

I'm in my late 50's. I went on a search for a financial advisor and Bitcoin was my litmus test. Result? I'm my financial advisor. My entire Roth is in actual Bitcoin in cold storage (multi-sig). Around half of my SEP IRA is the same...the rest of it is in MSTR and IBIT. I hold zero bonds. My plan is to retire in 2029. No...I will not be cashing out then. I will live off of it or borrow against it.