MSTR

Usual_Suspect8663

Saylor won’t go bankrupt, odds are in the next cycle MSTR is 3x from here and everyone is saying he’s a genius

cchackal

you can get exposure via IBIT/MSTR or maybe use coinbase?

alfredonoodles

MSTR has $8 billion cash on hand and hold 820k Bitcoin, they sold 1800, the same as the coldcard hack.

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

Yeah it does seem MSTR uses spec ID (haven't found a note recently but in their 2005 10K lmao; don't want to dig too deep on the subway home and doubt i'll open the laptop at home) Would be curious if they can elect HIFO as a corporate, even though there's exceptions for crypto (would they have to use HIFO for all other capital gains then? probably not, prob overthinking). I'd bet they just flattened the PNL as best possible and just have some gnarly lot tracking process set up, since they're not active traders and generally transact in one direction in one symbol

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

They absolutely pieces of inventory, and those units of inventory for accounting exercises like this are the tax-lots tracked by the cost at which they were acquired. They certainly are functionally identical, but he's got various tax lots where he acquired at a per-coin cost of $12K, up to probably $125K. When he sells some for proceeds at a $60K per-coin, he can select the oldest tax lost basis to relieve (FIFO) which gives him a gain on the tx, or the newest lot (LIFO) which is the most recent lot he bought, or he can use a weighted average approach which is burdensome, or a specific ID approach (which sounds like what MSTR does - spec ID) which is burdensome for a different reason All the different relief methodologies do is change the recognition timing of PNL (hence why they use spec ID, they probably match cost lots closely to the proceeds of their sale to minimize realized PNL).

Ok_Subject_2447

And MSTR selling Bitcoin in order to survive

fan_of_hakiksexydays

>Do you genuinely believe that MSTR will be worth less than it's underlying Bitcoin in a bull run? Absolutely, since it's currently worth $20B less than its underlying BTC fund. That's because the stock doesn't buy you BTC. It's tied to the share of the company not Bitcoin itself. And the shares are used as a form of raising capital. And they can get diluted. You also can't control when Bitcoin is sold. So for all you know, they're gonna end up getting sold at $30K a coin. Not to mention that Strategy's average BTC cost them $75K. Also, we have to assume that there will be a bullrun again. And looking at the last bullrun, even if we get another one, it might be even more muted and disapointing.

UC_DiscExchange

> You do realize that the stock still dropped 80% despite BPS increasing 56% right? Yes because it's a leveraged position so MNAV drops with the hype. This isn't the gotcha you think it is. > So increase in BPS doesn't guarantee the stock increase. Unless MNAV goes negative, which is a ridiculous long-term assertion, the stock will rise correlative to Bitcoin. Historically MNAV spikes with Bitcoin. Do you genuinely believe that MSTR will be worth less than it's underlying Bitcoin in a bull run? If so, hammer those shorts.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

>It wouldn't because Bitcoin per share has increased. BPS has increased 56% since then, so Bitcoin doesn't have to hit ATH for MSTR to reach it's ATH., assuming MNAV is the same That's not how any of this works lol. You do realize that the stock still dropped 80% despite BPS increasing 56% right? So increase in BPS doesn't guarantee the stock increase. The only reason the stock goes up is if people WANT to buy it. You can increase BPS 200%, if people don't want to buy MSTR, it could go actually go down another -20% instead. People bought MSTR because of hype. That same hype will need to return next bull cycle. And in a big way. Otherwise, it's gonna do the same thing alt coins do. And just like alt coiners they're gonna go "but why isn't it going back to ATH", "but it has higher upside", "but there's X and Y fundamentals and reasons it should go back higher".

UC_DiscExchange

> The problem is MSTR is down waaay more than what was expected. It's down 80%. This simply isn't true. Anyone with half a brain would expect a leveraged position to drop more than the underlying asset. MNAV 1.05, which is about exactly what should be expected in a bear market. > And things for Strategy have been going worse than they expected, to the point that they had to sell BTC. Again, they didn't **have** to sell anything. They were already sitting on 2+ years of obligations. This is strictly so they can get back to buying more Bitcoin. >So you would need a hell of a bullrun to get back on track. In fact, MSTR would need to go up 400% just to get back its losses. It wouldn't because Bitcoin per share has increased. BPS has increased 56% since then, so Bitcoin doesn't have to hit ATH for MSTR to reach it's ATH., assuming MNAV is the same.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

I think you are a little delusional about how MSTR works. In theory, yes, it's good if they get a lot of BTC, and when we get a bullrun, its should go back up. And it better happen soon. The problem is MSTR is down waaay more than what was expected. It's down 80%. And things for Strategy have been going worse than they expected, to the point that they had to sell BTC. So you would need a hell of a bullrun to get back on track. In fact, MSTR would need to go up 400% just to get back its losses. So you have to assume that the next bullrun will be as big as past ones. Which the last one wasn't even able to match anywhere close and had very disapointing returns. You also have to assume that people will actually buy the stock in a big enough way to get well past 400%.

Altruistic_Shoe7967

After strategy stock lost its correlation with bitcoin, it's been written in the books. MSTR doesn't even have a core business, just buying bitcoin

BigRevolution5015

Short MSTR !

fan_of_hakiksexydays

STRC is still unpegged. Despite raised yields and raising back cash for yields. MSTR is still down about 80% right now. $4 billion in cash after having to dilute shares and sell BTC because the ship is sinking. But now they have to spend even more of that cash with the buy backs, to basically balance back their debt obligation, pay dividends. So that's billions that are gonna be gone pretty quickly. It will save their asses short term, but if this bear market doesn't bounce back quickly into a bullrun, they are gonna be back to square 1 pretty quickly.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

He did plan on cash reserves, as long as the bear market doesn't last too long. But he also said this bear market wouldn't last long, and we'd be back in a bull market later this year. So this bear market has to turn around within the next few months. I don't think they also planned out how quickly MSTR would dive, how long STRC would stay unpegged, how high they'd have to raise yields (still above promotional yields), or that they'd have to resort to selling BTC. They probably didn't expect they'd have to take this much money out of their cash reserves that were supposed to last close to 2 years. The fact that they not only can't buy BTC anymore, and are even now forced to sell BTC, really shows that this isn't going according to plan.

Monster213213

STRC It’s up 20% from the low and not far off par. MSTR is up week to date 4billion in cash What not working?

fan_of_hakiksexydays

STRC depegging meant they had to raise the yield. Raising the yield meant they had to get a lot more cash. Needing more cash meant they had to dilute shares of MSTR. Diluting shares means MSTR drops in value, and STRC depegs more in fear. Which means they needed even more cash to buy back stocks and pay dividends. Which means they have to sell BTC now. With BTC getting sold off, it means MSTR holders lose the value of their stock is based on, and the feedback loop starts all over again.

HSuke

Yes. I've also noticed that the amount of MSTR sold exactly matches 2 months of dividend/interest. Not sure why they chose exactly 2 months.

mraksmeet

Arbitrage against MSTR not USD

Personal-Ebb-4717

except they also sell 3 millions MSTR shares, which the headline doesn't mention. hmm

HSuke

If you're wondering why they keep "selling low, buying high", it's because they're arbitraging BTC with MSTR--not with USD. MSTR price moves like leveraged BTC price. When BTC price rises, MSTR price rises even faster. And when When BTC price falls, MSTR price dumps even harder. Strategy's main goal is to increase Bitcoin-Per-Share (BPS) of MSTR, which requires selling BTC when its price is high relative to MSTR even though that happens to be when it's low relative to USD. They could "sell high, buy low" if they arbitraged against USD and held a larger USD reserve, but they're stubborn.

AnApexBread

The biggest difference is that MSTR has billions of dollars to cover its losses if the Bitcoin gets stolen.

ClemPFarmer

So MSTR is using online cold storage? I’m one of those guys who isn’t confident in my cold storage “skills”. Seems like if it’s secure enough for MSTR, then it’s good enough for most people?

Old_Cucumber_1343

i keep a little bit on exchanges, a little bit in institutional, a little bit of MSTR, and a little bit of hardware

WizofWallstreet

Clearly you have no clue of how MSTR operates, he’s already bought prior to the post.

macready26

I bought MSTR to my tax advantage account

Own_Display_8154

Anyone know how MSTR secure’s their holdings?

Worldx22

No. But I've been buying BTC IBIT and MSTR for a moment now. $1k split into 3 buys. Works for me.

noncommonGoodsense

I’m honestly surprised you can form such coherent sentences with MSTR COK so far down your throat.

teh_herper

Loading up on them MSTR puts lol

eltoniq

People still believe in him which is wild when he just lies to their face. Wondering what the MSTR subs are saying about him, or are they doubling down on the kool aid.

Lavayo

Does MSTR have a risk apart from BTCs performance? Yes of course. But I don't trust Saylor but the whole company. It might not seem like it sometimes, but its not a one man show. According to communication and the release of current data like buys / sells its an uniquely transparent company. Your seem to just hate THE ONE GUY and ignore pretty much everything else.

RevengeTrade

Scamael Bailor should be arrested for fraud and conspiracy to fraud. He’s conducting unlawful business. MSTR is a scam. MSTR collapsing would be the best thing to happen for BTC since the ETF.

macready26

Sold few years ago to buy MSTR and max out my registered tax advantage account. I sleep well 😴

gigasawblade

Either spend some of cash reserve, or sell more MSTR

Ruzhyo04

It might not have been a bad idea if MSTR didn’t turn their stocks into a ponzi. I doubt Microsoft would have done the same

Knowledge775

The fundamental change is going to be multisig with a multi-vendor setup from full open-source software. Everyone is a scammer and wants your Bitcoin. The Bitcoin space is filled with shills that shill bad products for money. Coldcard, BlockFi, Coinkite, MSTR, STRC, etc. The Bitcoin space was a huge echo chamber for Coldcard being the best. Coinkite went from being open source to source available after they were butt-hurt from the Foundation using their code for the Passport. The complete irony is Coinkite used Trezor’s code when they started. We have to assume that any closed-source software is compromised. Nation-states don’t want Bitcoin to succeed. Self-custody is against the state’s interests. Hardware wallets are an attack vector.

anthony446

Buy MSTR and chill

cali_dave

Cryptocurrency isn't going to see mass adoption without custodial services. Grandpa isn't going to learn how to use a Ledger. The beauty of crypto is that it gives us degens the option for self-custody. I think you and I have fundamentally different ideas of what centralizes a blockchain. People choosing to take advantage of custodial services doesn't mean the blockchain is centralized. Block production and validation is still decentralized. The point of decentralization is to prevent government institutions from controlling the currency. They can't simply print more (and devalue it in the process). That's why everybody's so up in arms about CBDCs - they're still controlled by the government. A CBDC would allow the government to devalue, seize, watch, or freeze your coins as they see fit. They could rewrite the ledger if they wanted. *That's* why we value decentralization - not because MSTR has a bunch of it or because Grandpa's going to use Fidelity to handle his crypto.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Read it again. Nowhere did I say anything about MSTR being the next Luna and FTX. Nor made any causality connection between them. I literally only compared the market cap, to show the size of MSTR. Not a causality. FTX and LUNA are a good comparison, because those crashed in the last bear market. So if MSTR was to crash, FTX and LUNA's size are a good comparison to get an idea of the size of MSTR and its effect on the market.

tj78492

"We got also MSTR no longer buying BTC, even selling some, and being forced to dilute its shares. MSTR's BTC holdings are still bigger than the entire market cap of Luna and FTX at their peak. Why does it feel like history is rhyming so much once again." You pointed out things in crypto that have nothing do with MSTR and said history is rhyming.... You're waiting for the next shoe to drop and think it's going to be MSTR when the things they are doing is exactly why it won't be them. They've built up enough reserves to cover their obligations and taken the hit on their narratives that were unsustainable. My point is there's nothing there to blow up like Luna and FTX anymore.

Heavy-Syrup-6195

Saylor isn’t selling $5b, nor has he announced any plans to sell. MSTR was previously approved to sell UP TO $5B , if needed. Old news rolled into new FUD.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

You haven't explained why MSTR is like Tether in that it won't fail. It feels like you're just randomly picking out something in crypto that didn't fail, without really having a connection to MSTR, and then just saying "well if crypto X didn't fail, then stock Y won't fail". That's like me telling someone who has a Jeep that it will never breakdown, because my Honda motorcycle hasn't broken down.

KeanuRekt

What happens if one of the MSTR or ETF custodians get's hacked and hundreds of thousands of BTC are lost?

praslovan

We've had one yes. But what about MSTR capitulation event? We're not there yet

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Actually, Luna is also a stablecoin. So you could have just as well said more like Luna than FTX. MSTR is just a stock tho. It's not like it's something people use or need on exchanges like stablecoins. Tether has its issues but it's been able to survive because it can mint and burn at will to stay pegged, and its mechanism still works fine. Even during bear markets. That's the big difference. MSTR hasn't been able to solve its issues. It's just been spiraling. It's stock has been tanking. STRC hasn't been able to stay pegged. They had to increase the dividends. They had to dilute shares. They are burning through their reserves faster now, which they needed to keep to pay for dividends. And now they can't buy BTC anymore. So it's definitely not the same problems Tether has lol.

Kenjati-Outside

The $5B Strategy Authorization: Is Wall Street pulling the strings? Check the Full 6-part breakdown of the MSTR debt structure over on X: https://x.com/i/status/2083594345244926427

fan_of_hakiksexydays

So we now started having exchanges collapse, major hacks, one alt coin after another getting killed off. Are we entering that phase of the bear market again? And of course we got MSTR no longer buying BTC, even selling some, and being forced to dilute its shares. MSTR's BTC holdings are still bigger than the entire market cap of Luna and FTX at their peak.

kachurovskiy

Some folks have mentioned using leveraged BTC futures - I think that would be a far inferior strategy since there's a liquidation and holding price on top of crypto commissions. With MSTR, there's none of that.

Late-Space-9161

i don’t like MSTR, i would just buy leveraged btc futures, you’ll make more money depending on your leverage

HSuke

He will have the last laugh, but mainly because he's already fucking rich from his investor's money. Same with CEO Phong Le, who's been selling MSTR shares regularly on schedule. They're still be rich even if MSTR goes to zero.

Milcah_Ganderton

MSTR's timing has been hilariously bad - they basically speedrun the retail investor experience but with billions backing them. Guess even mega corps can't escape the urge to panic sell at the worst possible moments.

toniistheworst

my man MSTR is a ticking time bomb. there are better examples for your argument other than saylor xD

WizofWallstreet

MSTR and ETF is how it gets legitimized, not random tech offshoots that offer these services. Love it or hate it that’s where we are going

Personal-Ebb-4717

MS will find out that the "fly wheel" spins both ways. If dividend continues to be paid without any new STRC ATM. MSTR will eventually paid out more in dividends than the money they raised selling STRC in the first place. And dividend continues in perpetuity. In other words, the dividends is not sustainable and the matket is pricing in this risk, hence STRC is trading way below par.

callebbb

It’s a similar argument for why you’d buy Gold or own bonds or currency issued by a large institution that owns large amounts of gold (ie a bank). Bank gets to monetize their inert asset (Gold), and the debt purchaser gets reduced insolvency risk (in theory) and a steady rate of return. Ultimately, people who hate Bitcoin won’t buy the company. If you don’t think Bitcoin is going to revolutionize money, you wouldn’t buy MSTR. Just like if you think banks are gonna go insolvent or Gold is gonna be meaningless, you wouldn’t be buying treasuries or holding the dollar.

PureCod9290

MSTR "investors" truly the dumbest people on the planet. Every time I hear someone try and pump this moron scheme I wonder if they wear a bicycle helmet to the supermarket. Probably not allowed to drive etc

fan_of_hakiksexydays

MSTR and STRC might be up there as some of the dumbest things to ever hit this space. It's purely greed driven schemes. While I'm glad Saylor helped pumped my bags last year, it's not what I got into BTC for. And I'm also not liking how it's controlling such an increasingly massive share of the active supply of BTC in the market. I don't know if people realize it, but they are controlling far more BTC than FTX and Luna ever had combined. Despite the drop in price, Strategy's BTC holding are still worth way more than the total market capitalization of Luna and FTX at their peak.

HSuke

Even investment companies like Berkshire Hathaway invest in **other** companies that produce **real goods and services** for real customers. Down the chain, it's involved in real value creation for external customers. MSTR, STRC, and BTC are circular investments that don't produce real value or utility. BTC is a negative-sum game for investors. Some investor value is being permanently lost to mining and electricity/e-waste.

callebbb

I know we're trying to contextualize the financial instruments used by Saylor and comparing it to a ponzi scheme, but isnt it more like a holdings company, like Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire earns around 0.4% of its value in dividends. This means, at today's valuations and dividend payouts, it will take 250 years for each share to be made whole. Now this is just internal. Owning Berkshire does not give you access to any of these dividends. Instead, the CEO of Berkshire reinvests those dividends into companies. All Berkshire does is buy companies. They don't make iPhones. They don't build data centers. They don't sell coca-cola or earn high margin revenue from adspace. And look at the stock market today. Just like there are people saying "Bitcoin is going to zero" or "Bitcoin is going to the moon", the stock market is filled with companies that are absurdly overvalued or undervalued depending on your point of view. When you buy Berkshire Hathaway, you're buying a narrative centered around primarily 1 guy making stock picks to drive value. You're not buying some cash generation machine that will make you whole with a decade of parabolic growth. Obviously this isn't a 1:1 comparison. Buffett isn't issuing preferreds and then spending the money on more stonks. Regardless, I think Berkshire Hathaway is a great example as to how a "holdings company" can monetize assets. Another example would be REITs, but I don't want to beat these analogies with a deadhorse. Disclaimer: I am biased myself due to positions. Positions: I hold Bitcoin, MSTR LEAPs, and some STRC as well.

HSuke

A Saylor scheme is when you take investment capital from shareholders and instead of actually investing it, uses it to pay another group of shareholders. And vice versa. 1. They sell MSTR to pay for STRC dividends 2. They ATM STRC above $100 to buy BTC, which increases MSTR value It's circular.

HSuke

**A Saylor Scheme** is Ponzi-adjacent. Design-wise, they are very similar. The main difference is that Strategy openly-discloses its actions while a Ponzi scheme lies about what it does. ####**Ponzi Scheme**: Shareholders are **directly** paid by other shareholders. The scheme is hidden behind fake accounting and fraud. New shareholders pay old shareholders. ####**Saylor Scheme**: Shareholders are **both directly and indirectly** paid by other shareholders. The scheme is publicly visible, but hidden by financial complexity. 1. Group A directly pays for Group B: New MSTR shareholders pay for STRC dividends. (Though recently in July 2026, there was a BTC sale that paid for STRC dividends). 2. Group B indirectly pays for Group A: New STRC shareholders pay for BTC (via ATM when its price is over the $100 par), which indirectly increases MSTR value Similar to a Ponzi scheme, there are no external customers increasing shareholder value. Unlike a Ponzi scheme, Microstrategy can also legally pause dividend payments for STRC indefinitely, so it has a mechanism to temporary prevent a complete collapse of the company if there are no more new investors. Thus a Saylor scheme is not a Ponzi scheme, but it has significant similarities.

SimpleMoonFarmer

If MSTR increases BTC per share by selling MSTR and buying BTC with mNAV > 1 (market cap of MSTR > BTC holdings of MSTR) then when it's the other way around (mNAV < 1) MSTR would increase the BTC per share by selling BTC and buying back MSTR stock with that money. They should do that, no?

fan_of_hakiksexydays

MSTR quarterly results are in. They hit a whopping net loss of $8.22 Billion. A major loss was always expected, but this still exceeded what Wall Street expected. The expectation was a -$2 to -$3 loss per share, which turned out to actually be a -$24.45 loss per share. The company still has $2.5 Billion in cash and investments to still cover its ass. But at the same time, with the dilution of the stock, convertible debt interest, increase of STRC dividend to re-peg it, repurchasing of debt, etc...it has had to use a lot more cash and now will have to use a lot more cash than expected. The dividend coverage runaway is now shortened even more now that they don't have the same ability to raise cash with fresh stock issuance. Especially after having already diluted their stock.

feltusen

Its not. And you cant backup your claims. I can. Adoptation, where is it? People has lost hope in it, eg the prize and market cap is falling and has been for a long time. Doesnt help that MSTR and other freuds keep luring people in, most people see that

SatoshiMckenna

Bitcoin only. If you are feeling ballsy then MSTR, ASST,abd MTPLF are good options as well.

devCheckingIn

MSTR and COIN report earnings today after market close. I suppose everyone is expecting a disaster but it will be fun to see what kind of numbers and guidance we get.

NoPunAtt

I too am with you. Have a very large part of my holdings shifted into MSTR been DCAing since $200 range. I feel like we are at the bottom. Made my final 10k buy last week. Will sit and watch. Lets hope the gods are on our side. Will see you in the next bull run.

Dependent_Code7796

Considering MSTR/ASST are buying BTC for 12-13% interest and banks are only charging 3.5-7% for a mortgage, I’d call all mortgages relatively cheap to fund BTC purchases.

master-beast-72

The Saylor comparison is apt but there's one structural difference that makes the ETH version more interesting from a network perspective: if Bitmine stakes that ETH, they're not just a price-concentrated holder, they become a significant validator. 5% of staked ETH is meaningful. Current staking participation is around 27-28% of supply, so 5% of total supply translates to roughly 18% of the staking pool if they stake it all. That's in range to start influencing things like block proposal rates and MEV extraction patterns. It doesn't give them consensus finality power (you need 33%+ to threaten liveness), but it's enough to matter. The no-debt point from r/euro347 is the key variable. MSTR's vulnerability isn't the BTC concentration, it's the convertible note structure — if BTC craters, they can't service debt and have to sell into a falling market. Bitmine without debt just sits through a drawdown. The house of cards analogy only applies if there's leverage behind the position. The real question is what they actually do with the ETH. Buy and hold on the balance sheet is one thing. Stake it, run validators, and participate in MEV supply chains is a fundamentally different entity.

Euro347

BMNR has no debt, unlike MSTR

Israel_Trump_Fan

" old investors paid out of new investor money" That's literally what MSTR is doing right now lol.

dataCollector42069

Paid off $40k in student loans shorting MSTR now

ShrugsforHugs

Just happened to go back to a "True North Podcast" (The guys who run strive now) from January of 2025. They were calling bitcoin to return to around 200k and MSTR to trade at an mNAV of 10. They were talking about how they couldn't see a possibility in which MSTR wasn't trading above $1,000 by the beginning of 2026. It ended up at about a fifth of that and has been cut in half since.

GrapefruitOwn6261

I’ve been looking into TAO and the subnets that Kraken has started listing. Does anyone here have much experience with them? I’m tempted to start building a position in TAO while it’s still relatively early, as it seems like it could be a strong AI play going into the next bull run. I did well with AKT last cycle, and some of the TAO subnets, like LIUM, seem to be tackling similar infrastructure but with much smaller market caps, which obviously makes them a lot more speculative. Most of my monthly investing goes into MSTR because the gains are tax-free in my Stocks & Shares ISA, but I still like allocating a bit to crypto for the potential of outsized returns. Would be interested to hear what people think about TAO and which subnets are worth researching.

Herosinahalfshell12

No theres a few black swan events to happen yet. Maybe MSTR dumps, maybe US govt abandons its BTC reserve, maybe a large ETF like Blackrock exit. Something that makes it seems like the end for real this time.

devCheckingIn

Will be interesting to see what Saylor "bought" this past week. I'm guessing this is going to be MSTR and / or STRC buybacks.

Lefties_TheWorst7331

DCA and average down.. BTC probably won't get much cheaper than it currently is. People are expecting the 4 year cycle to play out and it's getting front ran before the expected October low of this "4 year cycle". And if the 4 year cycle holds true, next year is going to be absolutely juicy. STRC should return to par soon, and MSTR has increased their cash position to secure STRC and/or possibly buy up more BTC with it. Just DCA and let it bring that average down!

Medical-Lecture-6053

Bitcoin still has a albatross tied around it which is Michael saylor and his MSTR holding 5% of the supply of BTC with a weak debt / preferred structure. However, what would stress MSTR to blow it up to force BTC liquidation would be much lower prices ( think 20-30k BTC). However in inflationary environment where they currency remains strong(deflationary) this allows for further fiscal stimulus then it allows them to continue to support investment to AI & reshoring infrastructurr. If they have rope they will generally use it until its fuly tied around their neck. Then when the Rates spike uncontrollably along with the Currency collapsing and breaking down it inflation turns into hyper inflation thats where the demand destruction and the forcing of the fed to tighten rates and reign in liquidity could rubber band that extreme inflation right back into deflationary depression, Basically once it becomes so costly to keep trying to spend that the government has no choice but to cut spending, that is where BTC is vulnerable. Thats where BTC new lows and MSTR blowing up is possible. However, to get to that point BTC likely has some sort strength/run through hedging where Currency devaluation / rate increased is still contained and not completely dislocating breaking charts and causing excess momentum and panic. So as a short you tentatively go long right now in inflationary enviroment, with the foreknowledge that a deflationary reckoning and black swan crash will eventually come to drive much lower prices. However, this is something you definitely don't want to get caught shorting betting on it going down too early, monitoring credit markets for real LT breakdown is wise, a contained minor breakdown is not enough.. If we look at Japan markets which has higher inflation rates eventually the people. get mad enought hey vote out anyone who doesn't address the inflation(especially if its caused by currency devaluation and weak structure), so you'll finallly get politician who is more responsible.

Quick_Lawfulness7501

What’s the difference between STRC and MSTR

Routine-Can-1678

Macro regime change. Turns out, most altcoins are really just doing an interest rate carry trade. You borrow money from a bank at near 0% interest rate, shove it into Aave or Compound or Curve for about 5%, profit. The liquidity spillover is the part that fuels the really stupid stuff like NFTs, DOGE, etc. We went from 0-0.25% interest and $100b/month free money from the Fed to about 4% interest and $100b/month of Fed taking money away. Every Ethereum + copycat, L2, and things that rely on spillover liquidity died simultaneously for 2022-2025, because the money vanished. The only things that stayed alive were things like: Bitcoin Treasury companies: MSTR, Strive, Metaplanet Crypto stocks: COIN, HOOD Futures trading protocol: Injective, HyperLiquid Bitcoin-similar protocol: Kaspa DeFi with 20-150% interest rates: Sui Organic meme-casino: Solana, Raydium OG memes: DOGE, BONK, PEPE In the late cycle, when retail boomers see headlines about Bitcoin ATHs and get very greedy, but balk at the price, they get interested in XRP. XLM also gets a boost because it's the same narrative. After that, everything dies. The only profitable thing during a bear market is IBIT puts.

DannyGo-60

I have 900 shares of MSTR, so that is like 1.3 - 1.8 bitcoin, depending on how you figure it or zero being indirect, etc., lol. I own MSTR instead of bitcoin because I sell options off of the MSTR for yield. So in a way I'm more renting out the bitcoin I own indirectly...

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Probably around Q4 of this year. But it might come down to when MSTR really starts to unravel.

Earningsalgo

Well the money is in a rollover IRA so i couldn’t take it out and add to my ledger anyway Other than that MSTR owns 55 billion dollars worth of BTC vs MSTR market cap of 33Billion If btc rolls , mstr market cap will fill that gap if not exceed their holdings

Financial_Freak

can you tell me why are you buying MSTR instead of BTC?

Earningsalgo

I’m there ! 1 BTC on my ledger and just added 325 shares of MSTR

grajnapc

Mostly stocks but I have been adding to IBIT STRC and BTCI every week. Maybe will add BITA MSTR and/or MSTY or BLOX

master-beast-72

This is actually a meaningful disclosure change that's getting buried in the headline. Strategy's original "BTC Yield" metric tracked the change in BTC per diluted share over time — but it had a flaw: it didn't show that the ~$7B+ in convertible notes have a senior claim on the company's assets, including the BTC. If Strategy ever had to liquidate or restructure, noteholders get paid before common shareholders see a dollar. The BTC "per share" number was technically accurate but economically misleading. The new approach that accounts for senior claims gives a clearer picture of what MSTR common shareholders actually own on a risk-adjusted basis. Effectively: (total BTC × BTC price - face value of senior notes) / shares outstanding. That's the residual equity value, not just gross BTC exposure. Why it matters: A lot of retail traders use MSTR as leveraged BTC exposure without fully understanding the capital structure. The notes create a situation where BTC could be at $50k and MSTR equity is worth less than the gross BTC implies, because the debt holders capture the first slice. Ironically, this more honest reporting might actually be *better* for the stock long-term — institutional buyers who model the capital structure correctly will find the valuation more defensible than one built on a metric that obscured leverage.

tenor_tymir

You can also look into companies like Strategy (MSTR), they are buying massive amounts of Bitcoin which means their share prices are inextricably linked to the Bitcoin price development.

CalligrapherAlive829

I think the same as you. I don’t hold bitcoin, I hold MSTR. But if I were to hold bitcoin instead, I wouldn’t plan on holding bitcoin forever just like I don’t plan on holding MSTR forever. Because profit is not really profit until I actually trade it for things that, you know, actually give me tangible things that benefit me in life. Just holding bitcoin forever isn’t going to pay my mortgage or rent, know what I mean? So if I plan on trusting robinhood with my retirement money, why wouldn’t I trust them to hold my hypothetical “paper bitcoin” that I will end up selling eventually for that retirement money?

Earningsalgo

I’ve added 325 shares of MSTR recently. Let’s ride boys

AvailableTie6834

because by buying MSTR you do not own any bitcoin.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Can we finally break $66K already so we can finally try to liquidate the bubble of shorts at $67K, so we can then fail to break $70K and drop right back, so we can liquidate the longs and drop to a new low into the $50Ks, so that even more people panic out, so that MSTR can start to collapse and sell BTCs, so that it causes even more panic and we drop into the $40Ks, so that ETFs and sovereign funds hit the panic button too, so that now exchanges are getting too much outflow and are hitting their panic button, so that their crypto banks now are at risk of a collapse, so that the whole market is heading for a collapse, so that we can finally hit the bottom and be done with this bear market, so that we can finally go back up and hit the new bull cycle peak of $142,069.

HoldOnDearLife

When they liquidate Apple Park, you, as a common stakeholder, would be entitled to none of the money. When MSTR liquidates BTC because they file bankruptcy, you the common shareholder, would be entitled to NONE of the money.

Wheaties4brkfst

It’s mathematically true as long as STRC isn’t at par and mnav is low. Will they rebound? Maybe. If you’re looking at MSTR rn there isn’t really an incentive to get in as long as STRC remains below par. There isn’t any way to increase BTC per share without the preferreds or new debt. And you will only be more diluted as the company pays more dividends. The only way they could is by selling bitcoin and buying MSTR. Which they might! But we’ll see how much that pushes down the price.

Rock_Strongo

You shorting $MSTR then?

fan_of_hakiksexydays

I always thought MSTR could stay solvent and irrational longer than expected. But in the last several weeks, it's been one thing starting to unravel after another. This new headline is actually one of the milder and less concerning one compared to all the other stuff unraveling. But it looks like they are already in panic mode behind the scenes, and still trying to sell us "nah, everything is fine, this is part of the strategy". There's been already so many signs of the house of cards already having its foundations chip away. We've been seeing the first dominoes fall.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

But to raise that cash they have to dilute MSTR. And that's gonna plummet it's already plummeting value. Which is gonna limit how much cash they'll be able to raise from that in the future, if they don't want to tank the whole thing. Which means their next option is pretty much gonna be selling their BTC reserve. Because if they raise STRC dividends even more, which is already high, it's gonna raise their cash need obligation even more.

Zer0boii

Don’t trade.. you already bought at 100-126k, not great trades.. just HODL for 10 years and don’t look at it Although if I were you I would just put like 50/70% into a global accumulation fund once you get back to 100-125k Also I would put a percentage into MSTR & Coinbase Also you need a gold allocation

fan_of_hakiksexydays

We just had a perfect sweet spot for a rally. But that window might be slipping away. We had a few weeks of a perfect storm of bullish traditional markets, a bounce with shorts getting liquidated, Clarity Act being pushed, a deal with Iran to stop the war, CPI better than expected, rate cuts off the table, improving job numbers, etc... Now it's starting to look like it's reversing. The war is back in full swing, oil stopped moving, traditional markets are going back down. And we haven't even hit the part of the bear market where the shit really hits the fan, and not just the price. When exchanges start to sink, coins and projects collapse, crypto banks start to unravel. And this time around we have three new beasts that could unravel in a big way: MSTR, sovereign funds, and ETFs.