MSTR

HSuke

I was testing you. I had already marked you as a lazy incompetent MSTR and BTC maxi multiple times throughout the year. This was your final test to see if you could actually read critically or if you only read titles. I give up. You're beyond hope.

Subject-Chest-8343

That's what I'm doing. The play here is that MSTR is likely to outperform bitcoin over say 10 years, then you have the option to sell, withdraw tax-free from Roth IRA then buy more bitcoin.

MapIntelligent93

MSTR

canuckaudio

yes MSTR keeps buying it to keep it afloat

HSuke

In this case, they're talking about convertible notes, the same kind that MSTR uses. MARA is also a large Bitcoin reserve.

forsenbois21

Stick to the theory sycle with this you get the idea to look at time not price. and things changed this last sycle Altcoins are no longer secure like every sycle used to be, my guess is that money was stolen or driven into BTC etfs or it's derivates like MSTR and the new to come.

xxTheAIguy

I always wondered that. Why doesnt MSTR pay off the debt?

HSuke

Well, relative to the shit that MSTR is doing their shareholders. MARA surprisingly took a profit on its convertible debt repayments, and did so without diluting shares or selling stock. Complete opposite of MSTR.

HSuke

The reason they have debt is because they're also one of the biggest BTC reserve companies and followed the same model as MSTR to sell convertible debt. Unlike MSTR, they're paying off their debt early, not diluting shares, surprisingly taking a profit on the repayment, and pivoting to AI data centers.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Gotta love the MSTR bulls. “You guys just don’t understand the genius strategy of Saylor. Issuing perpetual stock with dividend obligations of 11.5% forever is brilliant!” Meanwhile their first tranche of STRC issued has already given back 10.1% of the BTC per share it acquired in less than a year. If MSTR stays at this price for another year, even if they start increasing 30% y/y every year going forward, this initial STRC issuance will be a net negative decision.

Daedalus_Knew

MSTR is a BTC company, they don't have a responsible option that involves selling Bitcoin. That would destroy them.

HSuke

> The company has made it clear they are pivoting toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. The big difference between MARA and MSTR is that MARA is acting more like a responsible company that values its shareholders and profits. Meanwhile, MSTR is still diluting and canabalizing its MSTR shares for its premium shares and BTC holdings.

Crypto_tipper

Nah. By just buying on a schedule I’m totally at ease. I actually get a little worried every time MSTR announces a big buy because it means I’m running out of time to accumulate.

Tubby94

I went full send like this but I'm strictly buying MSTR

wkndatbernardus

No, it's only a wash sale if you sell a spot ETF, like IBIT, and then buy the same ETF right away (before 31 days has elapsed). The grey area is whether we can sell a spot ETF, like IBIT, and then buy another spot ETF, like FBTC, without waiting 31 days. Some financial pros say that strategy is not a wash sale because they are different securities, operated by different companies, and some say it is because they both track the exact same asset. Personally, I solved this problem by selling some IBIT at a loss and then purchasing MSTR with the proceeds.

Valyarian

I can see where your coming from, but this would only make sense if MSTR was over leveraged to the point that it was unhealthy for Bitcoin, but it’s actually the opposite, you should any of his recent earnings calls, he point out how he’s created this monstrous acquisition using only 10% leverage, all the rest is of his own financial engineering. I feel bad for people who don’t DYOR because this goes so deep that it’s easily the best that can make you life changing wealth, MSTR dies if Bitcoin goes under 8k for 3 years, if that ever happens, I’d go all in on Bitcoin.

JerkyJunkie

For the most part, you answered your own questions pretty well. Well, I would recommend in. This is not financial advice. Would be to take all the liquid to your currently sitting on. Use it to purchase STRC, put a DRIP on it, and forget about it for six months or so. At the same time take as much as you physically can each pay period, and dollar cost average into self custody bitcoin. At the end of the six months, you should have a pretty large amount based on the original investment in STRC. If you choose to do so you can then cut off the drip, and use the 13% un taxed dividend, monthly to help assist with bills, etc. The STRC will continue to produce 13% monthly. Then you can use much more of your pay period funds to continue to dollar cost averaging at a higher rate into bitcoin. Unless you sell it, the STRC will be there forever producing 13% monthly. Which gives you a good passive base, and allows you time to build up your bitcoin stack, as well as looking into other opportunities like bitcoin proxy trades (MSTR), when it turns around call options will be incredibly lucrative! G-D Bless, and stack sats!

AnyPortInAHurricane

the CRCL scam just imploded, joining the MSTR and BMNR scams as epic tax losses winning!

Lavayo

STRC is just on another level. MSTR bought 7649 BTC a week YTD. That's well above any year before, and 49x more than last bear market (156 a week). If they can keep this up they will hit 1M in August/September or early Q4. Impossible to time that moment, but what's your best guess anyways?

TheKaotiicImpulse

Why not MSTR? Basically amplified Bitcoin stock

Adventurous-Soil528

I’m 100 percent MSTR in Roth and 90 percent SCHB and 10 percent SCHD in the 401k. When I am closer to retirement, I will rotate some of my MSTR into STRC. Next year I am considering opening a bitcoin only Roth IRA with Unchained and making my contributions 100 percent spot bitcoin for the year. I also buy spot btc outside retirement accounts of course. I see nothing wrong with your 100 percent btc exposure in your retirement accounts. I believe bitcoin will do some very interesting things these next 3 halvings and we will be very happy with our decision.

Nice_Category

My Roth is about 65% FBTC. 20% of the remainder is some form of MSTR. The final bit is a typical retirement mix. 

stoplossftw

if MSTR goes bust, that's a positive for BTC in the long run

Darkerjev

Dont believe in the doubters. Do the research and follow your gut. My roth IRA is full MSTR. At peak mstr price, my roth ira was about 100k. Im hurting now though, but im in it for the long term.

F4NT4SYF00TB4LLF4N

BTC is about -45% from its peak. When it comes down, it goes back up. When BTC goes up, MSTR goes up more.

F4NT4SYF00TB4LLF4N

I was 100% FBTC in my Roth. Then I sold it and went 100% MSTR.

la-bella-confusione

with the sole exception of NVDA, MSTR has been the best investment over the past 15 years, so that would be another way to play this strategy (see what I did there?)

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

They bought 1,000 BTC and increased BTC per share by 0.0011%. This did absolutely nothing for common stock shareholders, it just made MSTR bigger and made future yield harder to get.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Collapse or restructuring of MSTR is inevitable. The only question at this point is how long does it continue and how much more capital do they absorb beforehand. Saylor has set himself up for failure. He has pitched his company as producing value through “BTC yield”. Except the math is pretty simple, the more Bitcoin he buys, the harder it is to get additional yield. The more preferred stock he issues, the harder it is to maintain a positive yield. Finally the more overall Bitcoin he owns the more likely the shares are to trade at a discount rather than a premium. All three factors work against MSTR and all can only get worse as time goes on. The first one is pretty obvious, the more Bitcoin they own, the harder it is to get yield because you’re operating off a bigger base. MSTR first started reporting “BTC yield” when they had 226,500 BTC toward the end of 2024. In Q4 2024 they bought 194,180 BTC and generated a “BTC yield” of 48%. In all of 2025 they bought 226,102 BTC, yet only generated a BTC yield of 22.8%. So they bought more BTC but only got half the yield. So far in 2026 they’ve bought 89,599 BTC but their yield has shrunk to 3.4%. If they keep up this pace they’ll buy about 50% more BTC than they did last year but only get about half the BTC yield. And 2027 will be even worse. The second factor is also pretty obvious, the more dividend obligations they take on, the harder it will be to maintain positive yield. At the end of 2024 they have essentially zero interest or dividend obligations, it was only 39 million in total per year. Since launching the preferreds, however, that number has ballooned, they now owe 1.08 Billion in interest and dividend payments per year. Considering MSTR has raised 7 Billion in capital this quarter, dividend obligations represent 3.7% of the capital raised. The more preferreds they issue, the higher that percentage will become. They’ve basically started on a treadmill of doom. The more preferreds they issue, the more capital they must raise every quarter just to maintain the status quo. The market does not have an infinite capacity to supply more and more capital to one enterprise. Finally, the more Bitcoin MSTR owns, the more likely the shares will trade at a discount to the Bitcoin holdings compared to a premium. If investors of MSTR want to reduce their exposure to Bitcoin, all they can do is sell their MSTR shares. MSTR doesn’t then go and sell the Bitcoin, it keeps it. This means that over time, the larger the Bitcoin holdings get, the more likely you are to have shareholders that no longer want exposure to Bitcoin, and the shares will start to trade at a discount because that sell pressure only flows towards the shares and not Bitcoin itself. Trading at a discount will create major problems for MSTR because it impacts their BTC yield significantly. Buying BTC through common stock sales will no longer be accretive but instead will be dilutive. Also selling common stock to pay preferred dividends will reduce yield even more than it would have. Once shares trade at a discount MSTR can only get BTC yield through issuing more preferred stock or by selling Bitcoin to buyback shares. The issue with selling Bitcoin to buyback shares is that it shrinks the company and makes them more prone to bankruptcy. The only reason they can issue preferred stock in the first place is because they are taking the proceeds and investing in Bitcoin with it, hoping the gains in Bitcoin will outpace the dividends. If they start to sell the Bitcoin to buyback shares, well then what’s the asset that’s paying for the preferred dividends? It’s not there anymore. So selling Bitcoin to buyback stock when it’s trading at a discount isn’t really an option. Which means the only way to produce yield is to issue more preferreds. But that ultimately ends up with the same problem. The market will eventually stop buying enough new issued preferreds that covering the dividend will be impossible. So they either have to sell shares trading at a discount or sell the Bitcoin itself. Either way, that’s the end of the BTC yield story, and which point why would anyone buy the shares unless they are getting a steep discount? The company won’t be generating any value and there will be huge costs to carry. Anyone could just buy BTC themselves and avoid those costs…. So that’s exactly what they’ll do. And as more people do that, MSTR will trade at a bigger discount and the preferred dividends will eat further and further into the solvency of MSTR until it collapses or restructures. There really isn’t any other alternative. The only question is how long it takes and how big MSTR gets before it happens.

waitmarks

Like what? What would you be doing as head of MSTR if you had access to all those bitcoin and also a bunch of debt obligations?

DrEtatstician

When MSTR stops instance accumulation otherwise it’s just MSTR coin , it’s loosing appeal

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

This guy buys even when it’s not beneficial to common stock holders. MSTR increased their total Bitcoin holdings by .14% with this buy. It increased their Bitcoin per share, their stated metric they are trying to optimize, by .0011%. Yes that’s 2 leading 0s. At that conversion rate they would have to double their total Bitcoin, get to 1.5 million total just to increase their BTC per share by 1%. So my question is, why is he still buying when it’s not benefiting shareholders? It’s because he’s stuck, and he has to constantly buy or risk both BTC and his share price tank. Saylor isn’t optimizing for long term shareholder value creation, he’s desperately trying to prop this up. Every buy he makes with common shares hurts the long term potential value of the company should Bitcoin actually succeed. The 1,000 BTC he bought this week didn’t do anything to help Bitcoin per share, in fact, buying 1,000 BTC just made it more difficult to get BTC yield in the future because they now have a bigger base of BTC. In the long term he is better off not buying anything until he can get better terms. But that’s not what he’s doing.

waitmarks

They sold just MSTR Class A this time. I guess he is done pretending he isn't just diluting his shareholders.

busterbythelake

90% of liquid assets in BTC. 10% cash to cover emergencies and bills. 100% of Roth IRA in MSTR. I chose that amount because there’s no second best and time is on my side. I’m 33 years old. Make sure you hold it in cold storage and run a node.

docherino

MSTR went up 4000% from bottom to top last cycle. BTC only 800%

Josh743

Good point, I think I will put part into MSTR 👍

Josh743

Why do you prefer MSTR?

docherino

Are u from the UK? I would utilise the ISA and buy MSTR instead of bitcoin. Im fully porting MSTR If it bottoms below $100

Appropriate-Pear4726

BTC follows a pretty clear trend. Some of you just have to stop with this cult like mentality and make some money. 66-74 is its current swing. It’s a real easy flip. MSTR is the tax friendly way to make it work. Once MSTR hits $139-140, short it. Depending your risk tolerance close the position when it hits $134-136. You all need to snap out of this emotional trap of holding

docherino

At that point just go 100% MSTR

finnestboy

80% $MSTR 20% BTC No risk no Rari

HSuke

How deep are you in MSTR, and at what price point?

Imagination_Drag

Ummm. $MSTR has been single handedly trying to prop up BTC and has been trying to make it look like a store of value / global macro hedge. With multiple purchases every week over the last couple of months Just go look at their purchase history. They are in a desperate race to prop up the price. If they don’t all of bitcoin goes to $20-30k. If they do prop it up and other buyers start to think it’s bottomed it will recover Quite the interesting game to watch https://www.strategy.com/purchases

xxaripss

zero. anyone who buys MSTR will be rich

neosBentSpoon

It's more important for us to get people using bitcoin as money than getting institutional adoption. All this talk about getting the Fed to approve of it or some companies like MSTR to keep buying and then selling credit instruments on top is antithetical to bitcoin's purpose of being a sound, permissionless money.

Gloomy_Dependent_985

I don’t mean to be over optimistic but what has changed? Iran war will crush short term markets but the us has only one option if they want to continue this futile war, which is to make more money. They just asked for another 200 billion and the war just started. Aside from that MSTR and likely many other treasury companies will have huge inflows. MSTR bought 3 billion in the last 2-3 weeks in a bear market. That only makes the lows higher and the highs higher. Now just imagine when demand for bitcoin rises and fomo sets in. STRC works during a bear market because people want a fixed income instead of seeing their portfolio get wiped. In a bull market MSTR stock being the real titan will be buying far more. I know I keep talking about MSTR but I really think they will have a massive impact imo.

Ace2021

Aside from MSTR obviously, I’m looking at: - XXI - ABTC I think once the bull run hits these companies are going to up significantly.

Classic-Charity-2179

It really depends what "all in" means to you and what's your time preference. Personally I think I can be considered all in, with some MSTR and STRC so same difference, but I have enough to live comfortably with my regular cash flow and I don't need that money for the foreseeable future. So the short or medium term volatility doesn't mean much to me. Even this current winter-ish I'm in the green, so who cares?

CarelessShoe1334

Its all out there in the public domain....After five weeks of outflows, U.S. Spot BTC ETFs just saw over **$2.1 billion in net inflows** in the last 14 days alone. While retail was panic-selling the 'Oil Spike' news, BlackRock and Fidelity were literally absorbing that supply. Also...Look at **Strategy (MSTR)**. They just disclosed buying another **22,337 BTC** this week at an average price of \~$70,194. They aren't waiting for a 'dip' to $50k; they are buying the current $70k floor as fast as they can raise capital...

Nerfi5

Also some MSTR

rawj5561

I got some MSTR today. Still mostly btc tho.

XLinkJoker

BTC/MSTR/VOO, a few other stocks here & there, mostly the MAG7

InvestmentSorry6393

By others I'm assuming the reference is to other crytpos. Yeah I dabble. I have some Solana, and some Eth. When Bitcoin starts ripping I go further down the risk curve to some real shit coins ( but it's only with the goal to convert to stable coin, wait, then convert to BTC when it's down ) I'm pretty much 90% BTC and MSTR

pronebonedetector

Out of that 1 200 000 bitcoins, Strategy (MSTR) alone holds 738 731 bitcoins.

SilverPrivateer

You guys all mock Saylor and MSTR well who else is buying? You guys sure as heck ain't! Should probably say thank you to a MSTR shareholder today for propping up the last shreds of the market, your little altcoins would be down 99% if it wasn't for us (PS: just buy some bitcoin, stop with the memecoin gambling)

lexicon_riot

1. Michael Saylor has institutionalized WSB-level degeneracy to make MSTR the largest holder of Bitcoin, last year was paper Bitcoin summer 2. Lightning Network growth and maturation 3. Ordinals, Metaprotocols, BitVM 4. People want covenants but no covenants yet 5. Core vs. Knots relay policy debate, now with a push for BIP-110 UASF 6. Jack Dorsey, Steak 'n Shake, etc. pushing payments adoption All in all it's been a pretty wild few years. Lots of growth and excitement, but not without its drama and noise. Plenty of crazy tech people are building now lol

Romanizer

You could also split into Strategy (MSTR) and others.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Or the question is, if MSTR wasn’t buying tens of thousands of coins without regard to price, what would Bitcoin be valued at? 10k? How much market demand is out there just because people are assuming MSTR will always be buying and worst case you just dump on them?

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Somewhere between 2-4 million BTC are assumed lost. That means 16-18 million BTC are accessible, with 1 million left to mine. MSTR is close to 5% of the supply already if there are only 16 million BTC.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Saylor is the egg man. Price collapse of Bitcoin is inevitable, the only question is how long it takes and how much of the bag belongs to MSTR shareholders. He’s put himself on the treadmill of doom, this week alone he committed to 120 million more in yearly dividends. By the end of the year that will be over 2 Billion a year. MSTR is only raising 20-30 Billion in capital a year so 10% of all future capital raises will go towards dividend payments instead of buying BTC. The more preferreds he issues the worse it gets. Any strategy that only works by exponentially increasing capital raising and needing exponential rise of an underlying asset isn’t a real strategy. It’s a recipe for guaranteed failure.

Magikarpeles

When MSTR fails it's gonna be epic

ReliantToker

​THE "STRAIT OF HORMUZ" DECOUPLING ​While the legacy markets are shivering at the prospect of energy-driven inflation—with the Nikkei and US futures slipping as oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains tight—Bitcoin has effectively checked out of that correlation. ​In a massive show of strength, Bitcoin surged nearly 4% to hit $75,921 early today, its highest level since early February. This move is significant because it’s happening against the grain of traditional risk assets. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are grappling with the fallout of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a cross-border liquidity bridge and a geopolitical hedge. ​The internal mechanics of the market support this shift. We’ve seen a clear move of assets into long-term custody, even as prices hold this psychologically heavy $75k zone. With Tokyo-listed Metaplanet securing another $255 million to follow the MSTR playbook, the "Corporate HODL" is not just an American phenomenon—it is a global race to capture the last few liquid satoshis before the supply-demand imbalance becomes irreversible.

goawayjoebro

reposting this from that comment section. Saylor himself having ownership of more than 5% of bitcoin is a real concern. However, many large firms (Vanguard, blackrock included) use MSTR as a part of their means of acquiring Bitcoin by proxy. Vanguard has a larger portion of MSTR stock, i think about 11%, Blackrock owns about 5% but has much larger stores of it's own BTC via the BTC ETFs. Blackrock's bitcoin ETFs by volume actually hold more Bitcoin than Saylor's company. Saylor has ~730,000 and Blackrock's total BTC ETF issuance is slightly more than that. What this signals is that there is increasing retail/big firm/tradfi adoption of Bitcoin. Strategy is actively being pried out of Saylor's hands. *Exact figures:* - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), its primary spot Bitcoin ETF, holds approximately 782,180 BTC as of March 16, 2026. - - MSTR holds 761,068 BTC as of today - Vanguard holds approximately 8.55% of MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock, while BlackRock holds approximately 5.8% - Blackrock AUM = ~14 trillion, Vanguard = ~12 Trillion

goawayjoebro

Saylor himself having ownership of more than 5% of bitcoin is a real concern. However, many large firms (Vanguard, blackrock included) use MSTR as a part of their means of acquiring Bitcoin by proxy. Vanguard has a larger portion of MSTR stock, i think about 11%, Blackrock owns about 5% but has much larger stores of it's own BTC via the BTC ETFs. Blackrock's bitcoin ETFs by volume actually hold more Bitcoin than Saylor's company. Saylor has ~730,000 and Blackrock's total BTC ETF issuance is slightly more than that. What this signals is that there is increasing retail/big firm/tradfi adoption of Bitcoin. Strategy is actively being pried out of Saylor's hands.

ReliantToker

You’re raising a valid point about the "incentive to shape narrative," but calling IBIT the "lazy path" ignores the regulatory and fiduciary reality of 2026. ​Here is the "non-manufactured" breakdown: The Fiduciary Mandate: For the 1,686 institutional owners currently holding IBIT—including pension funds and endowments—direct cold storage isn't just "hard," it’s often legally prohibited by their investment mandates. An ETF isn't the "lazy" choice; for many, it’s the only choice allowed by their board of directors. ​The Collateral Evolution: Unlike 2024, in 2026, Bitcoin is a "Tier 1" asset. Major banks like Wells Fargo and BNY Mellon now recognize IBIT shares as collateral for credit facilities. You can’t easily walk into a legacy bank and get a low-interest loan against a multisig wallet yet, but you can against an ETF. ​The MSTR Distinction: While I agree MSTR is a "monster" for adding tailwinds, it carries its own premium/discount volatility. IBIT offers pure delta exposure without the "Saylor Premium" risk, which currently sits at 1.01x mNAV (a rare reset). ​Is BlackRock making a fee? Of course. Is it "manufactured" to say that $55 billion in AUM represents a massive vote of confidence from the world's largest pools of capital? No, that’s just the math of the "Institutional Superhighway."

NinjaChore

Is someone just guessing a number? Because MSTR just bought 1.57 billion

JuxtaposeLife

The sad reality is that a large share of the pro-IBIT, anti-MSTR narrative online often looks less like genuine analysis and more like manufactured consensus... and you see that here constantly. The reaction to even mild criticism of IBIT is often so disproportionate that it begins to feel less like rational debate and more like narrative defense. That is especially striking because, at a high level, Bitcoin cold storage and MSTR represent two distinct paths of exposure, while IBIT arguably combines some of the disadvantages of both. At best, it is the convenience option (the lazier path) but one that comes with unnecessary headwinds. It also happens to be an enormous cash cow for BlackRock, so it is not difficult to understand why there would be a strong incentive to shape the surrounding narrative. Some of this clearly comes from real people repeating a framework they have not examined very deeply. But much of the rest reads like coordinated amplification masquerading as independent market opinion. That may serve incumbents well, but it does not make the argument any more true. Strategy, notably, does not appear to require that kind of support.

Friendly-Profit-8590

Does MSTR account for any of that or no?

snek-jazz

There are 3150 coins mined by miners per week. In the last two weeks MSTR alone bought around 42,000 bitcoin. That's more than a quarter of what will be mined this year bought in 2 weeks. The question isn't who will buy the miners coins, it's who the hell else is selling 10s of thousands of old coins at ao99 price they could have sold higher than over much of the last 2 years, and how many more old coins are for sale at these prices if MSTR keeps gobbling them up.

snek-jazz

The 11.5% is a variable rate that can come down if demand allows for it. We can consider things that affect that: * faith in MSTR being able to meet their obligations (which is a function of how much bitcoin they have, and the price of bitcoin) * the rates of competing products (which is a function of fed funds rate)

snek-jazz

And the majority of it from STRC ATM, not MSTR common. Amazing week for MSTR.

Calm_Situation_1131

Lol this can't be a serious comment because Saylor already sold about $400m in MSTR stock since starting the BTC strategy.

Calm_Situation_1131

Saylor and his firm literally marked the start of the dotcom crash. MSTR had an "accounting error" that caused the stock to fall 99%. Con artist through and through. He doesn't give af about BTC, just that his stock goes up and he can dump it.

Awkward_Potential_

>there's little structural danger here. MSTR does not custody their own Bitcoin. In fact, they probably use the same custodian as IBIT and many other ETF's. Ummm, that's actually my biggest concern. Strategy should self custody to keep Coinbase from being too large of a custodian.

Cadenca

When you really boil it down, there's little structural danger here. MSTR does not custody their own Bitcoin. In fact, they probably use the same custodian as IBIT and many other ETF's. IE., this is a moot point. Ownership is not centralized either. Those Bitcoin belong to me and hundreds of thousands of shareholders (inb4 someone tries to point out that technically the MSTR equity does not have direct claim to their BTC yadda yadda). The market can easily tolerate MSTR being at least 10% of the market, so that's 2.1 million coins. That's like 3x what they have now. We'll cross that bridge once we get there, but this is hardly the limit.

busterbythelake

Join a community and go to bitcoin meetups. I am 95% allocated to BTC with a little bit of MSTR. I keep a little bit of cash for emergencies and to cover monthly bills. That’s it. My only regret is not doing it sooner. I lost a lot of money gambling in the crypto casino with shit coins. I chose to ignore everything else and focus on the one asset that is truly decentralized and trustless. Everything else is noise. Stocks are noise, bonds are noise, real estate is noise, diversification is noise… if you’re younger than 40, time is in your side! Two things you have to remember: 1) If Bitcoin is not going to zero, then it’s going to millions 2) Are the central banks going to continue to debase their fiat currencies? If so, then you want to be on the fastest horse in the race. Bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom.

BakedGoods

yes agreed, i personally use diluted mnav for my performance tracking which last week fluctuated between 0.99x and 1.02x, which explains why the common accretion was basically flat at 0.032% (on a diluted basis). look, ultimately the whole play for this stock is they acquire more btc exposure per share over the long run. you can essentially buy 1 bitcoin, or 1 bitcoin equivalent (in dollar terms) of MSTR, and assuming the BTC per share increases overtime even at 1.0x mnav you'll have out preformed holding the 1 btc. to date they have consistently shown increasing btc per share. as you noted the preferreds allow them to still acquire BTC when sentiment is low on their stock (less accretive 1x mnav, ie. now). should btc double in two years, i'd expect that mnav to expand (then contract back to 1x). this flywheel has incredible opportunity for outsized gains compared to BTC assuming (a) btc's long-term trajectory is up and (b) the demand of the preferreds and liquidity in the common allow their btc yield to be positive over whatever timeframe your risk tolerance is (mine would be 4 years). any analysis outside the above is just noise in my opinion.

meshtron

MSTR will go down 5%

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Good call, just did the math and agree with you, looks like I am wrong for last week, but if you do the same math for other weeks this year, BTC per share has decreased the weeks they only issued common stock. Looks like MSTR is not being consistent in their calculations. They are not using ADSO in their calculation for marketcap and EV, but they are for BTC yield. Their market using ADSO is 52.3 Billion vs 47.8 Billion listed on their site. Since their marketcap using ADSO is slightly above the value of their Bitcoin, any sales of common stock would be accretive. Whenever marketcap using ADSO is below the value of their Bitcoin Bitcoin, common stock sales would be dilutive. So you can’t just say mNAV > 1 means issuing shares is accretive based on what Strategy is using for mNAV. In this case it’s around 1.15 mNAV where the break happens between increasing/decreasing Bitcoin per share when issuing common stock. Earlier in the year MSTR was trading below 1.15 mNAV which is why Bitcoin per share dropped in those weeks that they only bought BTC through common stock ATM.

FnAardvark

Nope, I was demonstrating why people would decide to own BTC instead of MSTR. I wasn't exaggerating the risks, or telling people to not buy it.

FnAardvark

So there's exactly zero added risk to owning MSTR compared to BTC? Is that your point? I never said that MSTR was going to fail, and to be honest I hope it doesn't. Now go back to what I wrote, and figure out what the point was.

snek-jazz

MSTR is up more than 10x from the FTX fall out low, bitcoin is not. Why is that?

snek-jazz

MSTR mNAV is low now, but share price is 10 times higher than the FTX fallout bottom. Bitcoin is not 10 times higher than it was then. MSTR from then until now was a better return, even though mNAV is not currently high.

0xParcel

The real risk most people miss is not the unrealized loss - its the dilution math. Strategy has been issuing ATM equity and convertible notes to fund BTC purchases, meaning MSTR shareholders are paying a premium over NAV to access BTC they could just hold directly. When the premium collapses (and historically these premiums revert hard), the equity underperforms BTC even if BTC recovers. Saylors wait thesis is fine for BTC holders. Its a different calculation for MSTR stockholders who bought at 2-3x NAV.

Sharlach

I'm not a Bitcoin maximalist by any means, and I have no idea where the baseline level of demand is, so I'll leave that topic alone, but I do know that investment demand was [the single biggest source of demand for gold in 2025](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-gold-demand-hits-record-high-2025-wgc-says-2026-01-29/). >GOLD INVESTMENT AT A RECORD HIGH The WGC expects another year of strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds and robust demand for bars and coins. ETFs saw inflows of 801 tons of gold in 2025, while demand for bars and coins jumped 16% to a 12-year high. Overall gold investment demand soared 84% to a record high of 2,175 tons in 2025. However, the WGC expects record-high prices to hit jewelry demand this year and will slow down purchases by central banks to 850 tons from 863 tons in 2025, even though their buying remains elevated when compared to the pre-2022 level. All the stablecoin issuance and de-fi infrastructure is being built on other chains, so I think those are more likely to benefit from any kind of wider crypto utility and usage, but I do think Bitcoin is seen as a cryptocurrency proxy by the wider investment community right now, along with MSTR and COIN stock as well. If someone wants to dip their toes into investing in cryptocurrency, they look at those three first, and maybe Ethereum as well. That can absolutely change over time, and many people expect a flipping in market cap at some point, but for now the first mover advantage and network effect has held up.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

You do know their stock is trading at a discount to their Bitcoin holdings now, not a premium right? Everytime MSTR issues common stock to buy Bitcoin now it decreases BTC per share. It’s only when they issue preferred stock do they gain BTC per share at this point.

Olsku_

The higher the price of MSTR stock the more Bitcoin MSTR is able to afford. They raise capital by diluting shareholders and selling debt, both more profitable the higher MSTR's valuation is.

sasquatchington

Makes plenty of sense. That’s when they can ATM the most because people are trading as MSTR is at ATH lol.

Ryytter

I bought 0,15 worth of proxy exposure through MSTR at current ish prices. I like MSTR for tax purposes and I can also disclose my position without risking getting hacked which is kinda nice 😆 I'm looking to add the same fiat amount if we drop to 40-45k so that would likely be 0,25 ish Bitcoin. That brings me close to half. Then let it ride. The mNav expansion could allow for flipping that for a full physical coin in the future. But who knows what the future holds.

xarips

youre dumb as pig shit If BTC fails MSTR will too. If BTC succeeds so will MSTR. Its not hard

FnAardvark

Ok, I looked and I am talking to you. What of it? You haven't made a case that there is zero additional risk to holding MSTR instead of BTC. If you want to do that, then you absolutely should, but you shouldn't be attacking people just because they don't want to to take on that additional risk. You should probably go outside and take a little break from the internet. When you start insulting people over minor disagreements, it's probably a good time to put down your phone for a while.

FnAardvark

In December 2029 there is a batch of convertible bonds due. If MSTR isn't worth $672.40 at the time he will have to pay cash instead of shares. That means if there's a prolonged bear market, or even just a black swan event at the time, he will be forced to sell BTC. That could easily trigger a sell off of MSTR. There's scenarios that could happen which MSTR could never recover from. I can't really say the same for BTC. You seem to think MSTR is guaranteed, but it's added risk. I don't see why it's so crazy to you that people would prefer to hold BTC rather than MSTR. I'm not knocking you for buying MSTR, but why are you being such an aggressive asshole to people without even understanding that there's an additional risk?

Suspicious-Case3861

It's leveraged. For me I don't have 50k. I have little, do the maths MSTR is going to help me a lot. Let's go Saylor.

ApartBathroom5237

It’s a leveraged play. Because there’s more volatility in MSTR than BTC.

neonxmoose99

The ONLY reason you would ever buy MSTR is if you think BTC is going to go up. And if you think BTC is going to go up why wouldn’t you just buy BTC?

El-Grande-

ELI5: Why would I pay a premium to own MSTR when I can just… buy my own BTC?

clintstorres

Average growth doesn’t matter. It can be 30% cagr or wherever but volatility is what will make the whole thing go under. If one year there is a 50% drop in price, no one is giving MSTR debt to make debt payments. Let alone accumulate more and so they have to sell bitcoin. Every single investor will know this and front run their selling and short Bitcoin.

xarips

By the end of the year Saylor will own damn near 5% of the entire supply and that doesn't even include the massive number of coins lost forever. If you believe in BTC, like if you actually believe in it and think its going to become globally adopted and the price will go to $1 million then I don't understand how you wouldn't be going all in on MSTR.

Which_Drop_5877

MSTR is not in the S&P 500 so you can just self custody BTC.

wkndatbernardus

Yes, that is my strategy on the Fidelity platform as well. I'm actually also considering some MSTR to go with the FBTC in my Roth since, if it hits, I'm going to enjoy those tax free gains and withdrawals 🤑