MSTR

Shichroron

Mostly yes. MSTR is the highest quality DAT. Is it objectively a high quality asset? No sure. But quantity of other DATa drops exponentially

dweeegs

One of the things that made MSTR attractive to buyers was that a lot of institutions or funds could not own crypto, so MSTR was their way to get exposure. Additionally, there’s a big chunk of the population that will never transact with it, but wanted to own it. Enter MSTR, which they could buy on their brokerage MSTR is still semi valuable because of how liquid its option chain is. It’s usually in the top 5 or 10 every day in terms of contracts traded. Large hedge funds or institutions can’t hedge with other things like IBIT because the liquidity and contract sizing isn’t there. As an example, on Tuesday I saw a single trade sell $55M calls in MSTR for February. That same trade on IBIT, which is the most liquid ETF, at the same delta would be around 200,000 contracts. That’s 15-20 times the total open interest right now. And that was a single trade of ~20,000 contracts out of the millions that get traded on MSTR. So MSTR ends up being the instrument used to hedge Bitcoin positioning All this to say, I kind of understand why MSTR got popular, why it’s still semi-popular, and why it gets crushed especially hard during downturns or goes up faster during sustained bull runs, because it’s *the* hedging mechanism From the operations perspective, shares below NAV is dumb. But if you’re only issuing above, and buying back below, then you’re basically telegraphing that your ceiling will be the NAV. And at that point you might as well buy a spot ETF I wouldn’t buy a BTC DAT, or any DAT, but think MSTR is a special case because of its liquidity and why it actually gets used. So I actually expect that to have a NAV above 1 naturally during bull markets, just like it gets its face ripped off during bear markets So it’s a Ponzi that has an actual goal that has nothing to do with itself lol

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani predicts Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 by 2026, with a peak target of $200,000 in 2027, despite a weak 2025 finish. Strategy Inc (MSTR) has increased its Bitcoin holdings to 673,783, valued at $50.55 billion, through recent purchases totaling 1,286 Bitcoin. The company funded these acquisitions via its stock offering program and continues to use Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

blackjackn

Bitcoin in Strike, Bitcoin in wallet, Gemini Bitcoin rewaeds credit cars, IBIT, FBTC, MSTR.

PaleontologistNo6593

Institutions don’t want it as a hedge. You think they don’t see the volatility in it. You think they haven’t seen at least two governments get slammed because they went all crypto. How’s MSTR doing. Gotta have a low buy in. I wonder how long it is until they make a profit again. There’s some that would say institutions don’t want a hedge. They want to control the digital realm. That they don’t want a physical backing anymore. Like gold silver and cash. That way they control retail. If you don’t have physical value and they shut off your digital value. What do you do next?

ReliantToker

Throw in a cup of MSTR, STRC

VariatCA

The difference between BTC and MSTR is that Strategy can dilute the piss out of their stock to buy more Bitcoin, which increases the value of their stash while diminishing the value of their shareholders. As long as he's buying while the price of BTC is flat, their share price will continue to fall as he uses their shares/STRC as an A.T.M. for funds to keep buying, unless a wave of speculation suddenly rushes in to Strategy.

EmbarrassedPrompt697

I’m totally diversified: BTC, MSTR, MSTY and STRC. Let’s fucking go!

Glittering_Pick_9738

And on top of that MSTR getting disproportionately nuked for no reason. Couple of weeks ago I tried to average down by buying some at 170 USD. Today it's at 155 dollars. This always happens when you think you bought the dip. I guess MSTR has no bottom too. Getting whacked from all angles. 

23_skido-o

Are BTC and MSTR starting to be driven by "chances the Fed cuts rates"?  The jobs report today apparently don't suggest cuts, and SCOTUS didn't rule on tariffs today.  Checking tickers time of post, we have a crab and a plummet.

sylsau

MSTR volatility is higher in both directions.

sylsau

**tl;dr:** * Strategy (MSTR) shares rose 6% in after-hours trading after MSCI's decision on digital asset treasury companies. * MSCI stated that distinguishing between investment companies and those holding digital assets requires further research. * The current index treatment for companies with digital assets making up 50% or more of their total assets will remain unchanged.

Mr_Eckert

I'd never leverage myself in a way that could create a margin call on my BTC stack. Doing so could set me back a decade. What I have done is get leveraged using secured loans (401K/Home Equity) that can't be called. This of course requires the cash flow to service the loan. Another idea would be to pickup some MSTR shares, and let Saylor & his team manage their debts and grow BTC per share.

Benzo_Head

MSTR is down -55% over the past year. It’s literally collapsing as we speak

Glittering_Pick_9738

No one knows that. The question is whether we have any support and whether a fall below, say, 80k activates heavy buying. At this point heavy crash (treasuries going down, MSTR collapsing, 90 percent of investors under water) could completely annihilate crypto so market makers may bail us out as they might be not keen to see that outcome.

Expensive-Tea-4194

Me checking my Schwab account after investing in MSTR.

FailUpset1541

1 year ago MSTR was $380, now it’s $162, so it didn’t do them any good.

AttemptKitchen

Yeah, MSCI index its just completely pointless now for MSTR, its like being removed basically. Many people have fall for the scam pump it did.

Cautious-Lecture-858

I made the horrible mistake of buying MSTR after the MSCI news. Who also made the same stupid mistake?

CapitalIncome845

Sounds like you invested without learning what you were buying. BTC demands a 4 year hold. MSTR probably 7-10. Volatility is vitality but sucks in the short term.

Cautious-Lecture-858

MSCI announced that it will keep Bitcoin and crypto treasury companies in its indexes. This was the biggest reason behind the October 10th crash, which wiped out $19 billion in a single day. The announcement should end the $MSTR FUD about being forced to sell their Bitcoin holdings worth billions. I don't know how to see this as anything other than extremely bullish news for the crypto market.

NietzschianUtopia

Don't buy MSTR, buy bitcoin.

Expensive-Tea-4194

Because I'm already heavily invested in MSTR. It was a mistake I'm stuck with. Obviously Bitcoin wouldn't of been the better option, because Bitcoin has unfortunately been sucking ass for a while now, including today. All out of hopium for either one of them.

Electronic_Bat1032

I’m a self proclaimed btc maxi so I am almost entirely btc and MSTR. Always above 90%. I agree that stocks will also print. I think I may have misread. (Dutch is my primary language)

VariatCA

MSTR is still technically up, and touched as high as 170 today. Though Saylor probably took that opportunity to sell shares / dip into STRC to take out a nice big chunk of cash for his next BTC purchases, helping to drag the stock down. It *also* doesn't help that Bitcoin is down like 3% from yesterday's closing, if you hadn't noticed. They're kind of correlated.

Cautious-Lecture-858

How is it possible for MSTR not to be rallying after such amazing news? Can someone explain?

BitcoinStrategy101

Perhaps look into the MSTR preferred products if you'd like income, but still want BTC-like exposure.

AlphaRed

In case you fell for the MSCI pump, the bad news is MSTR's infinite money glitch has been neutered as funds are no longer required to buy whenever MSTR issues new shares.

Glittering_Pick_9738

Just wait a few more years. All degens will go extinct and then we finally moon. On more serious note: what's even the point of crypto if every news leads to a sell-off? Good MSTR news is responsible for the dump. What would have happened had the news been bad? We all know. Flush shorts, then longs, then take 3 percent profits, then keep it sideways, than short it on the basis of insider knowledge, finally spread a rumour than in 2 years price will be 5 million USD and take advantage of exit liquidity. That's how you make money in crypto.

JustLTFD

100%. Who is going to buy MSTR over 1.0 mNAV when they know Saylor will immediately dilute back to 1.0? Serious, who? All the idiots lost their money already. Then tell me who’s going to loan them money as their stock crashes below 1 mNAV. The game has been over, it’s just going to take time for it to play out.

reliable35

Just load up with proxy companies like MSTR, Microstrategy & BTC miners like MARA, WULF & HUT. Some of these have now pivoted in AI hence, doing quite well. My colleague, £150k of his SIPP, (personal pension) invested into the above last 2 years .. Turned £150k into £350-400k.. A risky bet for sure. But fortune favours the bold..

JustLTFD

What about when huge buyers like MSTR stop buying? They bought 400k bitcoin last year and are out of money. What happens when they start selling in 2 years?

junkrat_enjoyer

“What crash” bro 128k to 85k bitcoin and 450 to 170 MSTR, like be real about what the market is saying. You can be up millions, been in since the beginning, but that kind of drop is gonna hit like a ton of bricks for a lot of people. You can be confident in it going back up all you want, and I agree it probably will atleast somewhat, but this action would constitute a crash to any outlooker. I bet its brought a lot of speculative eyes to bitcoin that never would have engaged before which is good for the cause, but being so pedantic to newbies is lame af. Just my 2cents

NinjaChore

I can see MSTR causing BTC to drop significantly

VariatCA

Strategy not being de-listed by the MSCI is another pretty big recovery tailwind for Bitcoin/Crypto. There has undoubtedly been some investors concerned about Bitcoin if MSTR was vulnerable to an index de-list. That could have harmed their exposure, reputation, and their stock price. *That* in turn could put their big stockpile of BTC in jeopardy in the long-term, and cause worry about buying Bitcoin while MSTR unwinding could flood the market and tank the price. That ruling will undoubtedly be a big relief to both potential Bitcoin/crypto buyers *and* MSTR buyers simultaneously.

jaraxel_arabani

Oh my view isn't just about Bitcoin, again I actually view MSTR positivity and have a position in it for a few years and bought more last year. I view that if a company's sole value is holding resources and not processing / utilizing /refining said resources they shouldn't be included. Oil companies have refineries etc and hold oil at inventory and that's fine... That's not their primary value. If a company only holds gold in vaults and then borrow against that gold I'd say the same thing. Timber, anything really. If that commodity isn't held because of the company actually utilizes it for processing I don't see they should be included.

ryencool

This. It used to make up 90% of my holdings when i had little to invest. I now own a few ETH, but its like maybe 40%? I do own some ETH related stocks like SBETand BMNR who both hold wuite a bit of ETH as well. I was hoping to see a MSTR lioe take off with those. I think SBET hit 120$/share for a short time, and is now in the 20s. So im trying to lower my buy in to closer to that. If it jumps again thats a 2.5x, if it goes higher? Gravy. ETH is the red headed step child though, atleast in my 5 years.

Personal-Ebb-4717

the headline is not a lie. MSTR already reported their unrealized gain as Income last quarter. By the same accounting practice, MSTR has to report the unrealized loss as negative income.

Personal-Ebb-4717

the headline is correct. MSTR reported their 'unrealized gain' as INCOME last few quarters. So it should work the otherway around too, Unrealized loss is reported as NEGATIVE INCOME. Can't have your cake and eat it too.

Zigxy

Mostly they just issue new shares of their own stock. So it is investors who feel that MSTR is worth $155/share or whatever is the price is. This dilutes existing shareholders, so they have a smaller % of a company that now gets more $$$. In theory this balances out, but if the timing is bad, the dilution can hurt.

harvested

That was a pretty good attempt to shake people out of their corn. The stuff they pulled with MSTR, removal from indexes. Insane margin requirements. Inability to transfer out of brokers. Quantum fud was layered on thicker than I expected. Knotz were telling us core killed bitcoin and kept trying to associate it with CP for some reason. Not to mention the 4 year cycle. And it all happened while they pumped the hell out of metals - making you question the entire thesis. Sentiment was bad.. Like real bad. I'm not saying we're out of the woods yet, a rejection could send it back down lower. But if you're still hodling at this point... Well done. Sometimes the best thing for your stack is to tune it all out... I'm yet to try that myself though. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

UC_DiscExchange

It's because he buys when people buy stock. People buy stock when Bitcoin is rising. Unfortunately for MSTR bear markets will never be when the common stock is in demand.

Bear-Bull-Pig

MSTR was the og bitcoin ETF.

Seattleman1955

You'll be seeing it in another few months. At least you didn't buy MSTR.

L00PYLL0YD

Touching a leveraged based instrument, even more so than common MSTR stock is wild. I haven't checked, but as of the other day, I was -63% on MSTR, I would be cooked it was leveraged

RED-WEAPON

Sentiment is very mixed for 2026. Very good chance we see some much bigger dips down to $60K, $40K at worst. Upside: easily over $100K maybe even $250K (best case scenario) end of year. If you truly, really, strongly believe in BTC: you'll see drastically greater gains by investing that $10K into MSTU: a 2X leveraged stock tracking MSTR: MicroStrategy: the #1 BTC holding company.

No-Operation-3100

If you hold MSTR, you’ve already been sold une bridge for the price of two.

awaller777

1st mistake. my first 30 % dip made me sell. it was before I understood what I was holding. I got right back in after it immediately rebounded and continued learning and am still learning. 2nd mistake. I sold out of tech/ ai positions last year and bought btc treasury. MSTR/MTPLand TSWCF all at the wrong time assuming we have a 'normal' 4 year cycle. I also spent 10,000 on MSTY to never have to add to my Roth again and use income to stack sats on the blockchain. I'm bag holding now for the next 4 years. I'm okay with it bit it was my shitcoin moment. would have been better off holding my winners.

ActuarialActuary

The banks are trying to make MSTR go belly-up so they can buy up their Bitcoin

turribledood

I'm aware of all of that fuckwit. If MSTR ever gets S&P inclusion, you're gonna figure out real fucking quick why it's different from your ETFs. There's also just a generally obvious >0% probability that owning an outsized portion of the total BTC supply will be tremendously valuable to a company in the future. Again, feels pretty obvious. But besides that, how the fuck can you be conned by an insanely straightforward and transparent pitch? "We're going to use cash and share offerings to buy as much Bitcoin as we can as fast as we can." And then they did that. You either buy it or you don't, but it's not a con if you can't figure out what that means.

turribledood

I never have, nor do I plan to own any amount of MSTR. But the whole point of these BTC treasury companies is to use dollars to buy BTC now and wait for the obvious dollar debasement that is ongoing to both inflate their dollar denominated debt obligations away while their BTC appreciates faster than the payments due on their bonds. And, critically, they can do all of these things from within the comfy confines of the heavily regulated US stock market w/ tax advantaged retirement accounts, transparent accounting requirements, institutional order flows, options chains, massive liquidity, and on and on. I have no interest in it, but acting like it "makes no sense" or is somehow difficult to understand is dumb. It's very, very simple at face value.

phul_colons

What you don't know is $MSTR has no bottom because saylor prints shares from nothing diluting you the same way the US Govt and Fed do with the USD

Mission-Argument-842

Im watching MSTR ASST and ABTC Best way to profit is with these leveraged bets

NationalBitcoin

my take is people buying MSTR have no idea what the hell they are buying and sell out as fast as they get it

23_skido-o

MSTR sub is currently talking about how that stock stays "high volume".  So do Nickelback concerts

Whole-Reserve-4773

They’re buying with other people’s money. If the whole thing blows up they’ll still be very wealthy. After looking into MSTR and STRC I really don’t see the benefit of the extra company risk vs just buying BTC. But seems like MSTR is approaching a good entry / low point so not sure if I should allocate some as a bet there vs just keep buying BTC

Glittering_Pick_9738

New Year, old patterns. I do think Bitcoin is as close to an actual death as it ever has come during its rather short existence. We did not have blow-off top, did not even double the price from 2021 top, MSTR is just barely above the water and harsh crypto winter at this point can downright kill crypto. It won't go down overnight in a single flashy explosion but instead will slowly fade away and become ghost town. This bs during US market hours that singlehandedly ruined 2025 momentum becomes unbearable and if it persists into 2026 I will contemplate cutting my losses and leaving. Just like that.

pixelsteve

If we do have the typical 9-12 month bear market and MSTR price gets annihilated. I will 100% be a buyer, even after this massive drawdown it has still outperformed Bitcoin over the last 3 years.

franfishy

This whole cycle has been driven by MicroStrategy and friends. It is unlikely for the next few years at least. By mid Jan once MSCI removes MSTR from the index, BTC may even tank to 50-60k. Then you can start DCA-ing for a good 2x imo

unmatched25

ETFs are an alternative how Bitcoins can be bought, so it’s not all additional demand. MSTR will most likely disappear as a buyer in 2026 since their mNAV is close to 1. Where are buyers there are sellers.

nachtraum

MSTR is leveraged Bitcoin, so this is how it is supposed to be

LyingPervert

I bought like $75k of MSTR and MSTU about a year ago, and it’s worth about $25k now

WIRED_REFLEX

This is how MSTR probably started

dweeegs

But they've got $2B+ in cash on hand The company will be fine but the shareholders of MSTR will always get the short end of the stick. Gotta tap that ATM

RetiredAvocado

How did you count all the gold? What does "gold in circulation" mean? Why does bitcoin's market cap have to be the same as gold's? How adopted is gold? You see more or fewer stories of people paying for stuff with gold bars vs paying for stuff with bitcoin? Why is the value of bitcoin dependent on "general public" when the rise of "bitcoin as holding asset" companies like MSTR and introduction off ETFs and institutional money into that has a much greater effect than Bob setting a $20 recurring buy on strike? A lot of loaded presuppositions there.

cqm

that was what had gotten me interested in MSTR initially, but they couldn't find demand for their bonds. The idea that it was just MSTR and they could do stock dilution and bond sales to stack BTC and actually have leverage at max they only ever had like 10% of BTC purchases with debt, so leverage was always minimal instead now they found demand for other esoteric financial products they created under STRC STRF etc MSTR buyers till act like MSTR is the former simpler offering

Cptn_BenjaminWillard

That chart is crazy. I don't particularly like that it's a log chart, but that's necessary so the majority of the firms in third place and below don't show up as noise on the left axis. But when you envision what the chart would show as a non-log chart, it's pretty crazy how far MSTR is ahead of BitMine, and how far BitMine is compared to #3.

brows1ng

This is a great take IMO. 10x from here will be a very, very slow grind. The one thing Bitcoin has working for it that I think would lead it to 10x growth over time is the scarcity and the fact that Bitcoin treasury companies (MSTR) are the S&P500 which has a constant stream of demand via MANY millions of Americans’ 401k plans. I’m pretty sure the Bitcoin ETFs are either an option for 401k providers or on the way. If that’s in play, that would be an even more direct way for supply to get sucked up by constant stream of demand. Might not be a year, might not be 10 years, but I bet Bitcoin does to a 10x from here jn 10+ years. Unless something catastrophic happens, I’m very confident about that.

PrestondeTipp

It didn't take a genius to see that MSTR at 3x NAV was not going to be a permanent phenomenon.

renoracer

exactly, and judging by the flood of bot posts and comments that attack MSTR, i'm almost certain it is just coordinated and organised FUD. long term MSTR is a no brainer, and it's a shame "bitcoin maxi's" who hold $500 btc buy into this FUD and shit talk it at every opportunity.

jabootiemon

Here come all the hindsight heroes to dunk on MSTR lmao, buy and hold MSTR and you'll prosper in the long run. Short term is anyone's guess

baIIern

Whoever was dumb enough to buy MSTR won't be fine though

HSuke

MSTR is designed to bleed out to their new preferred shares stocks (STRK, STRF, STRC) in a bear market. It's only going to get worse.

Phylaras

It would be more damaging, yes. I think people fail to realize the way MSTR is now integral to BTC--for better and for worse.

No_Implement_5807

Waiting for the day MSTR starts selling BTC and they take the whole crypto market down with them

vb90

First domino countdown: MSTR MSCI exit. Heating up. Happy New Year bagholders! Gonna be a long one again!

mrjune2040

You’re 24, just got laid off, and 4 weeks ago you were asking whether BTC or MSTR was the better bet. I hate to break it to you but you’re probably not going to be wealthy at the end of 2026 given your current financial situation. And more generally if someone isn’t wealthy already, it’s unlikely that even the most bullish movement in BTC is going to make life changing money in the span of a year. Post like these should be a reminder that Bitcoin isn’t a get rich quick scheme.

Impossible-Weight852

We need big institutional buyers. The little guys have trouble scraping enough together to buy 0.1 BTC, if that was some magic number, but I’ll use that since everyone online throws out that number. Unfortunately, companies like MSTR are tapped out, and is only raising cash to make interest payments for the loans they have outstanding. I highly doubt any government is going to establish a bitcoin reserve to pump it up. It will only be used for holding confiscated BTC. If history is any indication, you’ll be in for downward and sideways action until the next halving is around the corner.

TvAGhost

No, but it is a possible source of cash absolutely. It's the same thing as MSTR and STRK.

dataCollector42069

other morons putting there money into this ponzi. I am so thankful for MSTR as I made about $30k since September just shorting it

AgnewTheModHamster

Saylor is sitting on over $2B in cash now from sales of MSTR ATMs. His obligations on his preferred stocks means that he can pay dividends out thru late 2027, and that is his largest capital obligation, larger than his seneior convertibel notes. It doesn't matter what BTC price does as long as he can meet those obligations, so I am afraid we are stuck with Saylor, he can't be forced out of the market. That being said, is there a time of reckoning for Saylor? I believe so, but it will more like a move like GBTC's where Barry Silbert was forced out of the CEO seat with Goldman Sachs installing its Global Head of Growth as CEO. That can happen with a serious drop in MSTR's mNAV and with his current dilution in Class A, Saylor would lose control of the Board of Directors. He just made his 1st Annual dividend payment on his preferreds today, I don't think MSTR price will dump out here, but at some point, if BTC price stumbles, MSTR will perform worse and with the annual shareholder meeting for MSTR in May, an attempt to dump Saylor out of control of his stack could come in March or April of 2026.

BoringPrinciple2542

Microstrategy is a key reason people think BTC has value. MSTR will eventually collapse due to its increasingly absurd balance sheet but it won’t be a shadowy cabal doing it; just the inevitability of being over-leveraged against a speculative asset.

VariatCA

Anyone who says "Saylor will be *liquidated* soon" only demonstrates they have absolutely no idea about MSTR's financials or obligations.

unmatched25

A hilft story of 2026 could be MSTR‘s mNAV finally reaching a value below 1. This story could fill the BTC newsflow for a couple of weeks and bring BRC down to 50k.

Western-Source710

The 4 year cycle is broken forever. - Mass adoption is still in its infancy, but it's beginning to happen! - Almost all supply has been minted now. MSTR *alone* purchased more BTC in 2025 than what all miners actually minted in full. - The larger an asset grows in size (market cap), especially one like BTC is the harder it is for it to experience volatile swings, without major news. - Inflation will remain low, maybe go lower, fed will lower rates more in response to it, cheaper debt = more market pump, lower inflation means my money goes further, further into the market that is. - If Quantum Computing happens, it won't break or destroy BTC. It will embrace it as Michael Saylor said. It will probably mine at an insane hashrate, mining lots of BTC, and verifying lots of transactions (collecting fees) with a much higher efficiency than our current BTC mining operations with ASICs, etc. So if anything, QC won't destroy BTC, it'll destroy BTC mining databases and their companies. - Even though we are still in early adoption, there are TONS more money being DCA and HODLd right now than ever before, absorbing tons of supply. Cycles don't always repeat, especially in finances. World events happen and do have an effect on things. Especially as those things become more adopted into.. world events. So yeah, chalk this "4 year cycle" up, as dead. <-- Notice the pun, "died"?

pardod

Did I not say more than once? MSTR is on it’s way to it’s second

JustKing0

Put MSTR

Professional-Dog2405

MSTR before btc in 2019 was worth $150mm-#200mm market cap and profitable....how much is your company worth?

r_xy

if you want as much BTC as possible, wait for MSTR to collapse and have to sell off theirs. It will be a lot cheaper then.

snek-jazz

That's incorrect. There are 343,641,000 shares outstanding, and MSTR own 672,497 btc. Divide total btc by total shares to get bitcoin per share and it's: 0.0019569750 How much is that BTC per share worth? well multiple it by the 88k price and you get... *drumroll* ... $173

PrestondeTipp

I could buy one Bitcoin today for $88,000.  To own the same amount of Bitcoin through MSTR, I would need to purchase 1641 shares. At $156 each, that is *$255,966.* (https://bitbo.io/tools/mstr-btc-calculator/) MSTR would need to triple their current holding of BTC without diluting shares, changing the price of BTC, or incurring new liabilities, to have a Bitcoin yield equal to just buying Bitcoin. Of course, this is not possible as one mechanism impacts another. MSTR investors will never again regain the price levels of 2024.  If you want to benefit from Bitcoin valuations, just buy bitcoin.

snek-jazz

yeah, that was his pay for the prior decade. I don't invest all my salary in the company I work for either. It's telling when people cling to this, now historic, detail as if it was some devious escape or lack of faith in the company. He holds far far more than he sold, as he always has, and far far more than anyone else. The idea that Michael Saylor, the biggest shareholder, is ripping off all shareholders, or that he has less to lose by MSTR failing than someone like me is as stupid as it sounds.

snek-jazz

The bitcoin stack is constantly increasing, that's what's different from the box you're trying to put them in. So, as ever the argument just boils down to whether you value their bitcoin or not. If you don't think the bitcoin will be valuable in future, and treated as capital, then of course MSTR seems terrible, but this is neither novel nor insightful analysis.

Arc_ClutchUp

I mean MSTR holds over 1/42 of ALL BTC if they wanted to sell it all and devastate the market they could, the reason it doesn’t affect it as much is because saylor has diamond hands

Illustrious-Boss9356

I'm a long term holder (and have been for over a decade) but here are the headwinds: 1.) On-chain transaction activity lower and cheaper, it was muted for most of 2025 until some of the miners and nodes reduced the minimum fee per transaction to below 1 sat/vb. So the increased mempool backlog today are virtualky fee-less relative to the coinbase block reward (which is 3.125 until 2028). It's not when the security budget becomes an issue it's when participants can see that it will become an issue. So this could be a headwind sooner than people think. 2.) Crypto as a whole has been flooded with get-rich-quick rugpulls and some influential family corruption. Not great and I think these projects need to fade for the space to establish credibility. Unfortunately, those bagholding these projects will likely be gunshy of all "crypto" including BTC for awhile. 3.) Adoption for the transactional use of BTC (and crypto in general) has actually decreased relative to the use of stablecoins. People by and large still view their wealth in terms of fiat. Since fewer vendors are accepting it, adoption amongst retail users (as opposed to investors) will likely continue to slow. 4.) Central bank issues and fiat debasement trend still intact but it could be that the capital flows disproportionately run to precious metals and other commodities, as we've seen in recent months. 5.) Lackluster performance (and potentially even going-comcern risk) of BTC treasury companies like Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Metaplanet (TYO:3350) is preventing other corporates from developing a BTC treasury strategy themselves. Those are the headwinds and I think they're impactful. That being said, BTC is still fundamentally solid (barring Quantum breakthroughs) and so with that, I would argue is still a good bet against a debasing fiat world.

Every_Hunt_160

So many comments on Reddit were asking everyone else to buy MSTR when it was at its peak lol

WellieWelli

Your view of the debt vs profit is inane. A company's financials is not the same as you taking a mortgage as an individual and the banks do not view it the same. Low interest and Convertibles make this financially easy for MSTR. Even at 75k this is a financially comfortable position for them. The only "downside" is slight dilution. The only scenario that's actually a threat to them, would be a long term bear market where prices remained below 30-40k during key refinancing years. The current valuation and debt situation is absolutely piss easy for them to deal with.

JuxtaposeLife

Anyone convinced that Strategy is on the verge of collapsing or being “forced to sell Bitcoin” has fallen for a lazy narrative. If you spend even 15 minutes with the actual fundamentals (all public and transparent), you see their so-called *leverage* looks a lot more like someone putting 80% cash down on a house and financing the last 20%... with a business model designed to pay that 20% off. The real risk is Bitcoin failing, not MSTR blowing up. Bitcoiners need to understand this instead of parroting second-hand talking points about “risky leverage” and imaginary liquidation levels at $75K. If you’re repeating that line without doing the work yourself, you’re not just misinformed... you’re undermining one of the few companies materially strengthening Bitcoin’s position in global capital markets.

ChaoticDad21

What’s to talk about? Custody doesn’t change anything. 10-20% odds of collapse of MSTR isn’t new

meshreplacer

How do we know he is not dumping his own bitcoin bags on to MSTR shareholders. He has a checkered past and should not be considered trustworthy.