MSTR

SouthernGoal4836

I honestly don’t have any cold storage. I have IBIT and MSTR. Been investing a few years and may make the jump eventually but my main strategy is that these are in tax advantage accounts that will be either tax free or reduce my taxes each year while investing. But I was just imagining a setup where you can digitally store your key (hidden in plain sight) vs the metal plate I always hear of. I was imagining in a random book every word for my private key would be in there. Let’s say in a book page 36 paragraph 2 sentence 1 word 3 was my first word. 36213 sounds like the price of a new car is used as a entry for a budget item. 23 more to go. Obviously I’d memorize the seed phrase but it would just serve as a backup. And I could put more random numbers that have no association whatsoever. But that would seem unnecessary If the book burned and my brain forgot. I could buy a couple of copies or just know I could always buy a new copy if needed.

Erocdotusa

When can the MSTR shorts get liquidated tho

KIG45

>Sector giant Strategy (MSTR) still trades at a premium to its bitcoin stack, but maybe not for long if the trend continues.

lostinyourwords

Yeah, the yield headline probably comes down to how they’re measuring returns vs. dilution—similar to the MSTR debate. If they’re accounting for reduced future dilution or debt restructuring, you can show big percentage ‘yield’ jumps even if BTC per share hasn’t moved that dramatically yet. If you’re focused on BTC yield strategies in general, borrowing against holdings to unlock liquidity without selling is also something people weigh among options.

lostinyourwords

"Yeah, the BTC return debate is similar to the MSTR yield argument—different metrics lead to different conclusions. Long-term CAGR looks strong, but year-to-year will likely normalize as market cap grows. If you’re eyeing BTC yields, borrowing against it (e.g., collateralized loan platforms) can unlock liquidity without selling—just another option to weigh alongside simple HODLing. Thoughts?

Chris_Apex_NC

I love the MSTR preferred stocks! Go with STRC if you want to minimize price fluctuations. MSTR is down a bit so STRK might be a good choice if it rebounds.

harvested

After 60K, did you not buy throughout the bear? If you did, can I ask what would have been better than this return? You could cherry pick stocks like Nvidia or MSTR but it's doubtful you'd have risked as much on them. Can I also ask do you really think this market is determined by when the bitcoin halving occurred? If so, why do you think the halving is significant? Have you sold in anticipation of a bear market? Personally, I'll be going long. Seems like you are winning and you prefer to look at the negatives.

Free_Entrance_6626

No, I would diversify. BTC, MSTR, MSTY, STRF

willofscott

Blockstream, Jade plus. Blockstream had bitcoin on their balance sheet before MSTR did. Founder is the only individual cited in Satoshis Bitcoin white paper. Adam Back. Thee or at least one of the original OG bitcoin maximilst. His company been around along time and I feel safe to believe he has done his absolute best to build a cold storage thats better or equal the best one available. At least that was my decision following research. Bought 3 of them. will buy more when needed. All in one wallet is absolutely irresponsible, plus have back up plans if you get head injury or no longer can remember where things are, it happens to alot of people, could happen to anyone. Or if you die, and your family can stare at the 66 million, 72 million, 106 million…1.2 billion in your device until the great grandkids-kids-kids-kids-kids….maybe forever. Knowing how much wealth is in there would be horrendous thing to do to your family! At some point…2.74 trillion. Maybe quantum came along and helped along the way but who knows? I would also suggest hiring, a company consultant or other highly respected well known consultant to review device usage, device storage, key storage, estate planning, etc etc. You are now the real deal, even with a small supply you are on your way to being the real deal, act like it and spend a bit of money to be safe and not fuck this up. Ok, captain fire up this rocket, we have some charts to climb! Next stop…..126 Trillion

zenecence

My brother in Christ... MSTR owns 70B worth of BTC. You do realise this is nearly 3/4 of XRP's total market cap.

Frequent_Optimist

MSTR down 4.2% YTD. Sucks for stock holders.

devCheckingIn

Yesterday Citibank issued a "buy" rating for MSTR with a target of $485. Seems like a risky call to me.

Frequent_Optimist

Would probably be better for this community if Saylor stopped tweeting about MSTR and how it's "BTC amplified" when it's up only 4% YTD. If this stock was bought during the majority of this year though, stockholders would be down. Has underperformed majority of the known market.

biba8163

> Retail is broke Retail is broke and dumb and never did come. A big portion of retail got scammed by shitcoins in 2021 and have sworn off crypto. BTC bullrun was driven by institutional investment and that and the fact that BTC being a multi-trillion marketcap asset meant parabolic gains in a short period were no longer possible and very little profit was going to flow to Alts. I've explained this for 15 months while YouTube scammers, influencers and Alt bagholders kept spouting Altseason with hopium metrics like BTC dominance, Fear & Greed indicator and Altseason index and drawing squiggly line TA voodoo charts. > Burger sales are a good measure of our economy (That *Burgers* meme is not that far off). JPow is ignoring this and other important indicators. Bottom 40% of the population is really hurting. (July 2024) > That bottom 40% are where you'll mostly find the bulk of degenerate retail crypto investors. They are tapped out. Interestingly, the bottom 40% of American households pay no income tax but they are most often the ones who are complaining about Dems and their high taxes. https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1eg8v5g/daily_crypto_discussion_july_31_2024_gmt0/lfv3b5f/ > The M2 Money Supply grew by $5 Trillion from early 2020 until April 2021, up 33%. The M2 is currently below 2021 levels. (August 2024) > I only have anecdotal evidence of of how much of the money comes from low income retail. But during the last bull run, it seemed like every regular Joe who had a smart phone was trying to make money on crypto and meme stocks like GME. My girlfriend's mom who is a waitress got a note from someone who left her a tip saying invest in these two "XRP and DOGE" and she wanted me to put in money for her. Christmas in 2021 I am with my girlfriend's family who have NEVER invested in anything and they're talking about the best shitcoins. That stuff was all over TikTok. My plumber went all in on GME, COIN, SQ, BTC, ADA. I saw him again in 2023 and he now says his only investment is his house. https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1essrtn/seeing_engagement_here_sentiment_is_lower_than_in/li8ll8e/ > Noobs who weren't around in 2016 and 2020, you should know that 2024 looks very very different so far than at this time frame in 2016 and 2020. (Nov. 5, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gkfvzs/bitcoin_price_crushing_altcoins_heading_into_us/lvlrry1/ > The market is changing: ETFs, MSTR, etc account for a lot of the inflows. This money is not going to leave BTC seeking greater return on Alts (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwymxl9/ > Each cycle is a bit different. Too many people are saying, just hold on to your coins, it's playing out exactly the same. (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gqexix/why_are_there_so_few_active_users_when_btc_is_at/lwxx36a/ > Be careful of people telling you this cycle is playing out exactly the same. ETFs, institutional and mainstream involvement, memecoins, L2 options and ETH competitors, it's very different (Nov. 19, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gujmk1/daily_crypto_discussion_november_19_2024_gmt0/lxyt5pw/ > Coinbase is #18 on Apple Store and #30 on Google Play. I don't think a lot of new retail has entered except maybe TradFi investors in the Bitcoin ETF. (December 2024) > With a lot of the old coins that have gone up 2X to 5X, I would guess that it's a lot of bagholders taking some BTC profits and FOMOing into coins that were down 85 to 95% thinking its cheap and its going to recover to ATHs. > I think downloading of apps are a better indicator because it shows proactive interest in crypto instead of passive interest. Anyway, Google Trends interest was was consistently higher at $40K range than it was been at $90K range. https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1h7ntzi/daily_crypto_discussion_december_6_2024_gmt0/m0pfva8/ > Unless you go back to 2011, 2012, 2013 when it was a tiny marketcap, *BTC has never had 100%+ gains for 3 consecutive years. It's going to be even more difficult to have that type BTC performance 3 years in a row and now with a ~2 Trillion marketcap.* > A lot of people are holding heavy Alt bags rationalizing a huge Altseason is coming this year. Your Alt echo chambers are telling you, it's 100% happening. There is zero percentage chance of that happening without another big BTC leg up so it would be wise to temper your expectations. (January 1, 2025) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1hr1bgb/btc_returns_2010_2024/m4uaz4g/ > This is the problem with FOMO into Alts when barely any new retail as entered - the buyers are bagholders circle jerking themselves. (February 2025) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1ihwkiv/daily_crypto_discussion_february_5_2025_gmt0/mb5ufvx/

masixx

Depends on the waves that a MSTR crash would cause.

giveityourall93

FINALLY — I’m glad that with the rate of adoption coming from governments, politicians and companies pushing this doesn’t raise a shit ton of red flags. My two cents as a long time hodler, I truly believe it’s unlikely that the US government has no clue where this thing originated from. The government embracing crypto in my view is not a net positive or a net negative either in some way. My gut just can’t seem to comprehend why the US would even consider embracing a monetary asset that is unknown/uncontrollable. ESPECIALLY if it could dilute the USD’s power. I also think that they wont be buying Bitcoin directly but they’ll continue to find ways to “confiscate it” in order to continue building up strategic reserve, and more importantly, keep a good solid eye on Strategy aka MSTR. At the end of the day, as long as it’s “decentralized” it’s here to stay, it’s grown way too much at this stage and we’re entering a digital era where the monetary system is collapsing and changing right before our eyes. One thing for sure is I have zero trust in the government because the plan is pretty obvious.. CBDCs, digital IDs and the illusion of freedom, even if it means embracing Bitcoin.

ScrewTheBanker

I have other investments in proxy bitcoin. ie MSTR, Smarter web company and some others.

Erocdotusa

MSTR is down close to 50%. When its back over $400 then we can say this latest fear event is over, imo

elidevious

The risk I see with STRC is pretty one dimensional: either Strategy votes to pay dividends or not. My bet is they will pay almost no matter what because nothing matters more to Michael’s long-term strategy than investor trust, especially with these products. Shockingly, it’s the regular MSTR share holders that are taking by far the lion’s share of risk. Im actually quite confident in this trade, but even then, I’m cautious. I have identified one ‘canary in the coal mine’ signal that’s made me even more confident in the trade. Unfortunately, if you don’t understand the product, it won’t mean too much, but I’ll tell you anyway. If STRC lowers the dividend rate, + the lowered SOFR rate, and the share price is under $100, you must exit the stock. To clearly understand, I highly recommend downloading the IPO prospectus and uploading that to ChatGPT to go through the product.

Letsgotothemovie

Just buy MSTR basically the same thing.

hawkeye224

Yeah I traded pretty often and also I had MSTR calls when it exploded

Beneficial-Bat1081

Not to mention dividends they payout. Which makes it 100% a Ponzi scheme considering BTC doesn’t yield income and MSTR doesn’t sell any of their BTC. 

SpiderHuman

Half my net worth is in Bitcoin, $MSTR, and $IBIT. These are my 4 main concerns and doubts: 1. 54% of Americans are below a 6th grade reading comprehension... and lazy. Critical mass is never going to put in the time to overcome the threshold and put in the hours to understand and trust Bitcoin. 2. Bitcoin believers in America are all white, male, and right-leaning. When the Great Reset happens... people will vehemently oppose any new system where white, right-leaning males have already front-run the system, and have all the capital, money, and power.... AGAIN. 3. We delay the quantum-proofing of Bitcoin too long. 4. Robots and A.I. are do everything better than humans in 10 years. No way for 99% to add value or earn money, efficiently. At that point, all economic theory and traditional concepts of what money is become obsolete in this new world.

sapheonyx

Because Satoshi is really just the American government that owns the 1mil coins and the encryption to BTC. What they're doing now is controlling, however they can, majority of BTC. Whether it's via MSTR, Blackrock or insider trading, the goal is simple. Get everyone to invest heavily in an asset that came from thin air, devalue the dollar, and push BTC to a ridiculous price that can be used as collateral by the govt for them to borrow more money from The Fed. The gravy train keeps going, yay! Why is it different from gold? Well gold didn't come from thin air. How do I know this is true? Well, time will tell.

Shoddy_Community7935

You absolute NPC. Yes, sell the asset that just dropped from $126k to $105k, so you can buy the asset that has been on a bullish trend for years, all the way from under $3000 to nearly $4500. What could possible go wrong? God, I hate retail so hard and I'm glad you now got less BTC. MSTR and all the other big corpos thank you - and so do I.

Accurate-Shower-6716

But MSTR needs it way over 100k to stay alive. Regular people who just buy the coin will be fine. 

fuscator

When I last looked, they were convertible bonds, which means they can be converted into shares , or presumably their original amount. Basically this means shares being diluted for everyone else. I don't know the technical details like who decides if the bonds convert or not, but I still think MSTR is a ticking bomb. They seem to have discovered an infinite money trick, and every single time we have had something like this that is too good to be true, it's because it isn't.

Optionbulls

I think BTC needs needs to be about 170k for each dollar invested into MSTR to be worth as much as buying BTC direct from an exchange.

Erocdotusa

MSTR is down nearly 50%

clintstorres

What do you mean by preferred shares will increase in NAV? Preferred’s don’t have a net asset value. Also, MSTR’s bitcoin yield this year is 26% do you think that is sustainable? If so for how long.

justjokiing

I like MSTR bc of the increasing btc per share, they aquire btc cheaper than I can and without me adding capital. their preferred stocks are really appealing to me rn, strc and strd at 10.25 and 12.2 percent distributions respectively. both will likely keep or increase in nav as well

tdogger88

I bought a lot of both. NAV is low cause bitcoin has been choppy, it runs off momentum. I bought MSTR cause if bitcoin runs like I think it will, MSTR will multiply gains by 1.5x —> 2x and I just like what Saylor is building as well with MSTR.

HSuke

Ehat nonsense. If a pension fund allows for buying MSTR directly, it will allow for buying a BTC ETF.

HSuke

They can buy the ETF, so it makes no sense to buy MSTR just to get Bitcoin exposure. It's more of an recently inefficient way to sell call options of BTC.

clintstorres

At what rate? It will never be able to match the btc yield of previous years. MSTR has a year to date btc yield of 26%. How many btc would they need to acquire to match that next year?

clintstorres

Why do you think the nav is too low? Also why buy MSTR instead of bitcoin if you think there will be a big move.

Only-Cheetah-9579

institutions can't hold btc directly, hense MSTR exposire. They can have ETF but because they diversify they pick up everything they can

beIIe-and-sebastian

MSTR only makes sense for people that want to have exposure to BTC in their retirement or pension accounts. Pension providers might not like you hold BTC directly or invest in a BTC ETF, but will let you buy equity in MSTR.

Heavy-Situation-9346

The people in r/MSTR haven’t figured out yet what the rest of the market is quickly coming to realize. Paying a premium to own MsTR is dumb

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) shares have dropped 50% from their all-time high as Bitcoin's price fell below $105,000. MSTR is trading at $283.84, down from its peak of $543 in November 2024. The company holds over $67 billion in Bitcoin, with $21 billion in unrealized gains, but recent market turbulence has reduced the value of its holdings by $10 billion. Bitcoin's price decline triggered $1.2 billion in liquidations, affecting both BTC and Ethereum. Strategy's stock remains closely tied to Bitcoin's price movements, highlighting risks for investors. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

EdgeLord19941

MSTR average buy price and liquidation price are not the same

kingjoeg

Why wouldn't they want MSTR to be liquidated? Then their Bitcoins will go to everyone else

Starkey18

The whole banking system won’t fail if MSTR crumbles lol. They are 80b market cap

Flexerrr

Big corps will do anything to prevent under 74k drop. They dont want MSTR to be liquidated. This is big players’ game now

noctecaelum77

I bought MSTR near ATM last year. This here is a walk in the park.

Human_Ad8651

I think 10/11 Friday was murder on all the long energy we had. Many tweets about portfolios being halved or fully lost for average people who had stop losses and tiny leverage even (1x for example). It’s the systems fault that they weren’t reasonably protected and a lot of exchanges were all over the place with prices on big coins for hours afterwards - ex sol being off by $20 between coin and Binance. So people come in Nov 2024 - get rugged by trumps meme and tariffs. Lose 90%. Probably leave honestly. New people come in over the July pump - then get washed in October. Doesn’t feel good. I’ve been here since 2020 and my coinbase account got hacked this spring and Cetus hacked in May which tanked my sui plays. MSTR pulls liquidity from spot BTC at a 1.5x nav. That’s 200k bitcoins not off the market because MSTR trades a premium. It leeches and slows BTC growth. Traders constantly pull liquidity out of crypto. Every time BTC runs since May it get shorted to oblivion and sold off for alts pumps so people can (10x). BTC is tired feels like. That’s why people are tired of presidencial rugs, tweets, hacks etc…BTC is the same price as last Nov in q4. Not the gains people wanted. So that’s the energy of why people aren’t frothy atm. That’s said - I still think we get a pump after gov opens and gold cools off (soon imo - 2 weeks). Then we run in Nov. but if people short the shit out of BTC again and sell off for alts then wrap it up. Pump will have no legs once again and people will capitulate. We need BTC up and alts staying flat ideally.

OrcOgi

Name 5 big companies/pension funds etc. actually at risk because of bitcoin price. And if you clown MSTR in there....

biba8163

I have commented countless times for a year that an Altseason is not possible so clueless noobs don't lose money scammed by fairytales of an altseason. Alt appreciation is fueled by BTC parabolic gains. Noobs still don't get this. The site that created this no longer exists but here is a chart from 2017/2018 of capital flows in crypto. https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Frfr47byc55411.png%3Fwidth%3D1080%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D2a2a64a6f404fcc0afcc8a587e8070e8db4a2a93 Notice the green flow of money from BTC to Alts. BTC is what gives value to Alts. BTC gains and speculation into Alts are what drives Alt appreciation. Without BTC going parabolic in short time frames, Alts no longer can have the type of appreciation they've had in the past -- or any appreciation for most of them. BTC is a $2 Trillion marketcap asset, it can no longer have these parabolic runs. Plus a vast part of liquidity into BTC is institutional and ETFs which will never touch Alts. Without that, there is no liquidity flooding into Alts for Altseason. > Noobs who weren't around in 2016 and 2020, you should know that 2024 looks very very different so far than at this time frame in 2016 and 2020. (Nov. 5, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gkfvzs/bitcoin_price_crushing_altcoins_heading_into_us/lvlrry1/ > The market is changing: ETFs, MSTR, etc account for a lot of the inflows. This money is not going to leave BTC seeking greater return on Alts (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwymxl9/ > Each cycle is a bit different. Too many people are saying, just hold on to your coins, it's playing out exactly the same. (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gqexix/why_are_there_so_few_active_users_when_btc_is_at/lwxx36a/ > Be careful of people telling you this cycle is playing out exactly the same. ETFs, institutional and mainstream involvement, memecoins, L2 options and ETH competitors, it's very different (Nov. 19, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gujmk1/daily_crypto_discussion_november_19_2024_gmt0/lxyt5pw/ > *Unless you go back to 2011, 2012, 2013 when it was a tiny marketcap, BTC has never had 100%+ gains for 3 consecutive years.* It's going to be even more difficult to have that type BTC performance 3 years in a row and now with a ~2 Trillion marketcap. > *A lot of people are holding heavy Alt bags rationalizing a huge Altseason is coming this year. Your Alt echo chambers are telling you, it's 100% happening. There is zero percentage chance of that happening without another big BTC leg up* so it would be wise to temper your expectations. (January 1st 2025) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1hr1bgb/btc_returns_2010_2024/m4uaz4g/

Datmiddy

DD looks good, just sent $50k since MSTR shorting paid off great =D

DrEtatstician

Funds like MSTR with reckless share dilutions etc are creating a dangerous bubble around BTC , we should be cautious

biba8163

It was obvious 2024/25 looked nothing like previous cycles waaay back in July 2024. I'd been warning noobs we're in a completely different game this time for 15 months now. But scammer Youtube and other crypto influencers kept pointing to meme metrics like BTC.D, Fear & Greed Index and told them Altseason was coming and it would pump their bags. > Exactly what is wrong? We are crabbing like we always do post-halving. (July 2024) > Agree to disagree. > - 2016 we crabbed at ~$600 range post halvening for months until EOY > - 2020 we crabbed at ~$10K range post halvening for months until EOY > - 2024 we hit ATH pre-halvening and we're starting to crab near ATHs https://old.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1eellzp/daily_crypto_discussion_july_29_2024_gmt0/lfhdf1d/ > Noobs who weren't around in 2016 and 2020, you should know that 2024 looks very very different so far than at this time frame in 2016 and 2020. (Nov. 5, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gkfvzs/bitcoin_price_crushing_altcoins_heading_into_us/lvlrry1/ > The market is changing: ETFs, MSTR, etc account for a lot of the inflows. This money is not going to leave BTC seeking greater return on Alts (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwymxl9/ > Each cycle is a bit different. Too many people are saying, just hold on to your coins, it's playing out exactly the same. (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gqexix/why_are_there_so_few_active_users_when_btc_is_at/lwxx36a/ > Be careful of people telling you this cycle is playing out exactly the same. ETFs, institutional and mainstream involvement, memecoins, L2 options and ETH competitors, it's very different (Nov. 19, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gujmk1/daily_crypto_discussion_november_19_2024_gmt0/lxyt5pw/ > *"Most altcoins barely even moved before Feb-march last cycle"* (January 2025) > If you only entered late last cycle, please don't make things up > - ETH reached ATH on January 25, 2021 last cycle > https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/l4bo67/eth_breaks_ath_of_1440/ > - ADA went from $0.05 in the summer of the halvening to $0.35 by that time last cycle > - BNB went from $15 range to $100 by that time last cycle > - DOT went from $5 in December to $16 by that time last cycle > - LTC went from ~$50 in late 2020 to $170 by that time last cycle > All while the halvening has been 1 month earlier this cycle so in terms of cycles we're in mid-Februrary already if you believe we are still having cycles https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1i7q0z8/daily_crypto_discussion_january_23_2025_gmt0/m8rj5qq/ > Unless you go back to 2011, 2012, 2013 when it was a tiny marketcap, *BTC has never had 100%+ gains for 3 consecutive years. It's going to be even more difficult to have that type BTC performance 3 years in a row and now with a ~2 Trillion marketcap.* > A lot of people are holding heavy Alt bags rationalizing a huge Altseason is coming this year. Your Alt echo chambers are telling you, it's 100% happening. There is zero percentage chance of that happening without another big BTC leg up so it would be wise to temper your expectations. (January 1st, 2025) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1hr1bgb/btc_returns_2010_2024/m4uaz4g/

Erocdotusa

MSTR is about the weakest and worst it has ever been. Definitely not the halving cycle i expected

BitcoinBaller420

MSTR could easily cover their debts at $60k per bitcoin, even if it stayed there for years. You can see their real time debt-to-equity at strategy.com. I'm not sure what the right mNAV is for that company, but no need to FUD one of the largest single demand drivers in Bitcoin's history.

Ancient-Stock-3261

Yeah, I saw that too. Sounds hyped but I’d tread lightly. These reverse merger plays can pump short term but usually fade once the buzz cools off. Not saying it’s trash, just don’t expect another MSTR-type moonshot anytime soon.

warsoul805

60k would start causing some insane issues especially with MSTR lol

Erocdotusa

Never seen MSTR this bad, so yeah

Human_Ad8651

I cashed everything out after the bounce from Black Friday for this exact reasoning. The 2021 fall top was essentially just a wick above the spring pump. BTC hit about 127k this cycle which is a solid multiple from the low. I remember November 2021 how it ground up and there were calls for 100k only to have it whimper away into 2022 and the bear. People held on though for months as interest slowly faded back then. All influencers have called all coins “shitcoins” besides BTC and Eth. That wasn’t true in 2021 - crypto was changing the world then - people actually believed that their project could be transformative. Projects were at least real sometimes. Now useless coin describes everything else besides the top 2. Who wants to believe in useless tech? It’s fake. It’s cosplay for investing. You have to lie to yourself that what you have is worth anything. The narrative shifted to everything trash - no wonder people don’t want to go player versus player to try and outrun/rug the next guy. It wasn’t like this in 2021. Back then people thought their coin was going to help humanity or actually solve a problem. Now they say their coins are trash but people will buy them anyway. Idk - seems like a tough sell. Also MSTR is killing BTC spot gains. I could see it pump if BTC can get liquidity again, but atm at every small BTC pump people sell it off to front run alt season so we’ve been chopping since May essentially. Anyway - thanks for you comment - tldr - agree with a lot of what you said.

thec4nman

They aren’t tho.. MSTR and COIN are red

PMmeuroneweirdtrick

Miners have been on a good run. Anything crypto related except MSTR haha

usrname_chex_out

I’m not selling any of my bitcoin. I am, however, taking profits from IBIT and MSTR in my retirement accounts

ErgoMogoFOMO

The only dumb thing to do is to have no exposure. Buy Bitcoin. If you won't, then buy ETFs. If you won't, then buy something lesser still (e.g. Bitcoin on exchanges, MSTR stock, etc.) But equally important is to keep moving towards full custody of your Bitcoin exposure.

rechtim

my dad is ecstatic i got him to buy MSTR at 240

tiltihilti_MSTR2100

Buy MSTR2100 but it takes Time

hynreck7

MSTR stock bled so hard on the market last 30 minutes, oof

The_Nothing00

Crypto winter is coming. I'd wait for 4 digit prices if I were you. The AI bubble gonna burst, and then MSTR is gonna go down with it, and so too goes BTC. We'll be sub 10k before we're 150k.

Godz1lla1

I bought MSTR back when it was also below NAV. Then it went 20x. :-)

biba8163

> How are people who lived previous cycles in full seeing this? I predict a real Altreckoning will be in 2026. **ONLY 5 out of the top 200 coins from November 2021 are in profit.** *The majority are down -60% to -90% since then.* People still holding are hoping an Altseason will come but in 2026 it will start becoming more and more obvious nobody is coming to buy their bags. https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20211109/ Maybe I am wrong but I predicted ~$50K BTC for 2021, ~$110-120K BTC for 2025 and NO Altseason in the 2024/25 "cycle." I also predicted BTC returns would be more muted in 2025. I am not saying I am Nostradamus but my predictions aren't based on hopium or information from YouTube scammer influencers so it tends to be grounded in reality and generally more accurate. Here are my receipts: > $50K was my conservative estimate of BTC price support although I thought it could go a bit over with FOMO. I didn't know where or how that much new money would come in to Bitcoin to support $50K+ over an extended period of time in this bull run. (January 2021) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/krbcrg/daily_discussion_january_6_2021_gmt0/gi > That is my prediction range $100K to $120K *IF* we do real well. But BTC going 2X from here is not going to give you 5X, 10X, 50X on all these Alts that people are holding at major losses and need those type of numbers to just break even. From this point in 2020, BTC did about 7X. From BTC average bear market price of say $7K, BTC did 10X. All this allowed lots of liqudity to Alts seeking profit. Most Alts are absolutely fucked now. (September 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1f98l4j/daily_crypto_discussion_september_5_2024_gmt0/llnadcz/ > Noobs who weren't around in 2016 and 2020, you should know that 2024 looks very very different so far than at this time frame in 2016 and 2020. (Nov. 5, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gkfvzs/bitcoin_price_crushing_altcoins_heading_into_us/lvlrry1/ > The market is changing: ETFs, MSTR, etc account for a lot of the inflows. This money is not going to leave BTC seeking greater return on Alts (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwymxl9/ > Each cycle is a bit different. Too many people are saying, just hold on to your coins, it's playing out exactly the same. (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gqexix/why_are_there_so_few_active_users_when_btc_is_at/lwxx36a/ > Be careful of people telling you this cycle is playing out exactly the same. ETFs, institutional and mainstream involvement, memecoins, L2 options and ETH competitors, it's very different (Nov. 19, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gujmk1/daily_crypto_discussion_november_19_2024_gmt0/lxyt5pw/ > Unless you go back to 2011, 2012, 2013 when it was a tiny marketcap, BTC has never had 100%+ gains for 3 consecutive years. It's going to be even more difficult to have that type BTC performance 3 years in a row and now with a ~2 Trillion marketcap. > A lot of people are holding heavy Alt bags rationalizing a huge Altseason is coming this year. Your Alt echo chambers are telling you, it's 100% happening. There is zero percentage chance of that happening without another big BTC leg up so it would be wise to temper your expectations. (January 1st 2025) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1hr1bgb/btc_returns_2010_2024/m4uaz4g/

biba8163

> Be prepared for a mega alt season with some of the shittiest of coins pumping for no obvious reason. Hopium. No receipts. > eerily similar to late 2017....I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC at 170k+, ETH at 8k+and some alts doing close to a 10x Hopium. No receipts. I predicted ~$50K BTC for 2021, ~$110-120K BTC for 2025 and NO Altseason in the 2024/25 "cycle." I also predicted BTC returns would be more muted in 2025 and that Alt bagholders will start saying that 2025 is going to be like 2017 late into the "cycle" after waiting for Altseason for a year. Here are my receipts: > $50K was my conservative estimate of BTC price support although I thought it could go a bit over with FOMO. I didn't know where or how that much new money would come in to Bitcoin to support $50K+ over an extended period of time in this bull run. (January 2021) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/krbcrg/daily_discussion_january_6_2021_gmt0/gi > That is my prediction range $100K to $120K *IF* we do real well. But BTC going 2X from here is not going to give you 5X, 10X, 50X on all these Alts that people are holding at major losses and need those type of numbers to just break even. From this point in 2020, BTC did about 7X. From BTC average bear market price of say $7K, BTC did 10X. All this allowed lots of liqudity to Alts seeking profit. Most Alts are absolutely fucked now. (September 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1f98l4j/daily_crypto_discussion_september_5_2024_gmt0/llnadcz/ > Noobs who weren't around in 2016 and 2020, you should know that 2024 looks very very different so far than at this time frame in 2016 and 2020. (Nov. 5, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gkfvzs/bitcoin_price_crushing_altcoins_heading_into_us/lvlrry1/ > The market is changing: ETFs, MSTR, etc account for a lot of the inflows. This money is not going to leave BTC seeking greater return on Alts (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwymxl9/ > Each cycle is a bit different. Too many people are saying, just hold on to your coins, it's playing out exactly the same. (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gqexix/why_are_there_so_few_active_users_when_btc_is_at/lwxx36a/ > Be careful of people telling you this cycle is playing out exactly the same. ETFs, institutional and mainstream involvement, memecoins, L2 options and ETH competitors, it's very different (Nov. 19, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gujmk1/daily_crypto_discussion_november_19_2024_gmt0/lxyt5pw/ > Unless you go back to 2011, 2012, 2013 when it was a tiny marketcap, BTC has never had 100%+ gains for 3 consecutive years. It's going to be even more difficult to have that type BTC performance 3 years in a row and now with a ~2 Trillion marketcap. > A lot of people are holding heavy Alt bags rationalizing a huge Altseason is coming this year. Your Alt echo chambers are telling you, it's 100% happening. There is zero percentage chance of that happening without another big BTC leg up so it would be wise to temper your expectations. (January 1st 2025) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1hr1bgb/btc_returns_2010_2024/m4uaz4g/ > January 2017, BTC did not move and was under $1,000 even though it had gone a bit over $1,000 in late 2016. Halvining in 2016 was in July so 3 months after the halvening in 2024. > The 1st Altseason only started in spring went BTC really broke past ATHs. *It's only a matter of time before YouTube shills and Alt Bagholders discover this and start pushing the narrative that 2025 is more like 2017 to provide some much needed hopium.* (January 2025) https://old.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1icgekb/daily_crypto_discussion_january_29_2025_gmt0/m9qjezh

Flynn_Kevin

MSTR isn't where the yield is. Look at MSTY.

Erocdotusa

Meanwhile MSTR on life support. Sigh

Senior-Profit-1626

The answer would reasonably be that to hold specific related information stocks and BTC (Bitcoin Treasury Companies) is to some extent diversified. Ie., I hold MSTR, STRK, CEP, MTPLF, IRIS, CIFR, WULF, BLSH, BMNR, and Gold and Silver,(physical). Maybe some combination for consideration. I hold other things too. Bloom Energy, MARA, HIVE, ARKX, ARKQ to name a few. None of these necessarily stray far yet provide some diversity. AI/Energy is the next five or ten years of innovation and infrastructure development. Holding foundational technologies almost exclusively in the NASDAQ is a great Macro opportunity. FWIW.

umirinbrah29

OpenAI raised $100 billion the other week like it was nothing, the likes of BlackRock and Vanguard have trillions in AUM and have a large percentage ownership through their holders of the main financial markets. If they can do it, what is stopping MSTR? MSTR holds what is historically the best performing asset, and it will rise with the tide of BTC inevitable growth. I anticipate MSTR will trend closer to mNAV over time, but a valuation of 1.1x or so seems entirely fair due to future growth, therefore even 40% yield is not needed. We also cannot predict the future, as the largest holder of the most valuable and scarce asset class, this may open opportunities for future income streams once the treasury play has settled. They could easily branch out into other areas in digital financial services to generate revenue in the 2030s and beyond. I agree with you that sky high mNAVs are not sustainable long term, but I think at current mNAV there is still significant upside potential to warrant the extra risk compared to spot BTC.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

They already own 4% of all circulating Bitcoin. BTC yield is Bitcoin PER SHARE, not total Bitcoin owned. For them to get 40% BTC yield they’ll have to double their total BTC, that means owning 8% of circulating supply. It also means raising 50+ Billion in capital, and they’re doing 20-30 million a week. MSTR is more likely to go bankrupt than they are to increase BTC per share by 40%.

umirinbrah29

You are forgetting STRK, STRD, STRC, STRF and any future preferreds. You are dismissing future avenues for yield via BTC banking avenues etc. Put it this way, if mNAV is approx 1.4x, they need to achieve 40%+ BTC yield over the entire life time of the stock, to ensure MSTR outperforms spot bitcoin over the same duration, even if mNAV trended down to 1. 25% yearly accrual I agree is extremely unlikely moving forwards... but 40% over a lifetime? Sounds realistic to me.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

I’m giving the latest data, that’s not cherry picking, that’s called looking at future performance vs past performance. MSTR will never get 25% BTC yield ever again. They might not even get double digit yield ever again, 2026 is the last year they even have a chance of doing it.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Investors massively overvalued MSTR and Saylor did a good job taking advantage of that overvaluation to dilute and raise capital, effectively transferring value from new shareholders to existing shareholders. Don’t expect him to be able to sell 1$ for 3$ ever again. It’s a lot easier to overvalue something at a 10 billion market cap instead of a 100 billion market cap. And without being able to accretively issue common stock, their BTC yield is basically dead.

umirinbrah29

They've generated over 25% BTC yield already this year, you are cherry picking. Naturally if and when mNAV expands and preferred stocks gain more traction, BTC yield will increase again. Even at 0.8% every couple of months... that's 3-4% BTC yield per year on top of BTC price gains. I'm weary of the current market sentiment for MSTR don't get me wrong, but with a long time horizon I still believe it will outperform BTC.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

MSTR bulls and Saylor love to talk about BTC yield. In the last 2 and a half months, MSTR has generated .8% BTC yield. In the last month, MSTR has generated 0.0% BTC yield. In the last 3 weeks MSTR has generated NEGATIVE 0.1% BTC yield. And the bulls wonder why the mNAV premium has shrank and MSTR has underperformed BTC massively the last 6 months.

codemajdoor

I think people are conflating 2 things here, store of value & utility. there are tonnes of crypto that serve specific type of utility. if you are making a utility coin then do that, just dont expect it to evolve into store of value. there are tremendous network effects at play here & it takes long history and being able to weather storms successfully for ages before people trust you as a store of value. and I am not talking about stablecoin type store of value where you maintain reserves but more like Bitcoin where investors/institution & even nation-states consider you a store of value. there are only 1-2 projects like that except for Bitcoin. I'd argue we dont really need more, Bitcoin is good enough. now we just need tradfi to build ecosystem on top of it like MSTR's bonds etc. I am completely ignoring memecoins for .. reasons.

MichaelAischmann

They will eventually overtake Satoshi. If anyone can, it will be MSTR.

Erocdotusa

Bear market until I see MSTR over 400 again

No-Pepper6969

I get 50% for BTC etf with my canadian broker and 30% for MSTR. This shit is dangerous

Worried-Joke-821

I think bitcoin is (somewhat) market correlated because a lot of investors treat bitcoin like their stock investments, and they don't understand bitcoin. It is my opinion that this is only a small percentage (say max 20%) and they move the price only so much. And even if MSTR dumps all their bitcoin on the market, surely the price will tank big time, but then bitcoin will just continue what it was doing... I think bitcoin is inevitable.

Leading_Load5505

I guess that's kind of a good point, like it's not going to be seized from you BUT, it is now pretty easy to manipulate, I mean alot of institutions have very very large stakes in it an could pretty easily alter prices if they were for example, be forced to liquidate their bitcoin to cover their massive debt load (MSTR lol). I agree that in theory there is no reason why it couldn't act in the same way as gold but the reason people buy gold is because it's delinked from USD and market sentiment, bitcoin so far has generally tracked markets in direction (not in magnitude ofc) where gold has for most of history had a neutral or negative correlation to stocks allowing investors to sell gold and reenter the market during downturns to buy up assets on the cheap. My main gripe is how market correlated bitcoin seems to be, which as an investor is fucking annoying, because the only reason i want to buy something like gold is to park my money in an inflation safe asset which i can liquidate during a market crash.

harvested

I've told you last time. His ability to buy is based on the demand of his offerings. STRC STRF STRK MSTR

trimbandit

Dude, don't get down or hopeless. I got divorced at 39, had to sell the house in the middle of a huge market crash and took away nothing, had to give my ex the majority of our modest investments. It's 15 years later and I have a house worth 1.8 that I owe only 75k on, and have a portfolio (cash/IRA/brokerage) worth about 2.5m. I got laid off 2 years ago and thought I would take time off, but after looking for a while at the crappy job market, I sort of decided that I had unknowingly retired two years ago. Also, I got burned by MSTR (which is basically leveraged BTC) earlier this year and lost about 300k when I panic sold. I'd been buying and selling off the volatility and thought I was so smart.

biba8163

> Lol anyone with 2 pennies in their brain should be able to tell by now.....This is not the same as the last halving or the previous Yet they still managed to convince the gullible that Altseason was coming. The Total Alt Marketcap is down -16% from 2021 while BTC has gained $1 Trillion in marketcap and stablecoin supply has gone up almost 200% adding $200 Billion in total crypto marketcap. ONLY 5 out of the top 200 coins from November 2021 are in profit. The majority are down -60% to -90% since then. https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20211109/ | | 2021 | 2025 | Δ |:-----------|------------:|:------------:|------------:| | BTC | $1.23 Trillion| $2.23 Trillion | 81.30% | Stablecoins | $0.11 Trillion| $0.32 Trillion | 190.91% | Ex.BTC/Stablecoins | $1.52 Trillion| $1.21 Trillion | -16.65% | Total Crypto | $2.86 Trillion| $3.76 Trillion | 31.47% > Noobs who weren't around in 2016 and 2020, you should know that 2024 looks very very different so far than at this time frame in 2016 and 2020. (Nov. 5, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gkfvzs/bitcoin_price_crushing_altcoins_heading_into_us/lvlrry1/ > The market is changing: ETFs, MSTR, etc account for a lot of the inflows. This money is not going to leave BTC seeking greater return on Alts (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwymxl9/ > Each cycle is a bit different. Too many people are saying, just hold on to your coins, it's playing out exactly the same. (Nov. 13, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gqexix/why_are_there_so_few_active_users_when_btc_is_at/lwxx36a/ > Be careful of people telling you this cycle is playing out exactly the same. ETFs, institutional and mainstream involvement, memecoins, L2 options and ETH competitors, it's very different (Nov. 19, 2024) https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gujmk1/daily_crypto_discussion_november_19_2024_gmt0/lxyt5pw/

OrcOgi

MSTR will blow up. Simple as that

hynreck7

Time to get into MSTR

dgshotuk

The FCA don't allow it in an ISA wrapper so that means nowhere does. For me it's MSTR now or wait till ETFs are available.

Erocdotusa

I can say the MSTR space is all of just dreading every day the market is open

riftadrift

What would that take to bankrupt MSTR?

KifDawg

Lmao I got banned too. I mentioned if they hate btc they could buy smst to short bitcoin / MSTR They fucking told me bitcoin will go up forever because of stablecoin minting, so I said buy bitcoin then? Banned lmao

OceansAura

I agree with this. And if it drops enough to bankrupt MSTR, we’re right back when Mt Gox went under, Voyager/FTX, etc.

BitcoinBaller420

Ah yes could be. I see there's a -3x levered MSTR ETF that's down 95% YTD. Levered products are weird, you could almost say they are a scam designed to go to zero. It's a bit tricky to short them though as they can be explosive short-term. I don't touch them personally.

harvested

I think he's talking about the MSTR short ETF not the stock itself.

BitcoinBaller420

Well, MSTR's leverage isn't a daily return, so it doesn't have the same decay problem as daily levered products. MSTR's leverage is based on a dollar short lasting many years.

PastaKingFourth

What tradfi assets have the same performance as Bitcoin? MSTR has been performing disastrously if that's what you mean.

brucekeller

I do think a lot of treasuries are pretty shady, but MSTR has gotten in early enough that at least it'll take a lot for them to get wiped out... plus they give dividends. Something like NAKA though? I don't know the exact math, but with an average buy price of $118k, I'd figure they would already be looking at insolvency under $100k... plus I doubt they will be giving out dividends anytime soon. An ETH treasury that gives out staking rewards would be nice... but wish there had been one that accumulated substantially before it 4x'd this summer.

yankeevandal

Saylor says that as bitcoin matures, volatility becomes less than we've seen. But also shared, it's a "gift" when it does pullback because it allows every day Joes the ability to stack more. It's become institutionalized, which was an aim, but I think you are somewhat saying two things. Back in the day, there were fewer players in the game, and the value could swing significantly on fewer dollars. Today, it takes more to do that, and the impact is dampened. That's a good thing. MSTR I think could move the market but I don't think the others could to the extent you're suggesting. Remember, it's not an American currency it's global.