MSTR

MECO-420

With 17 months of USD in reserve to cover the dividends, if they sell BTC now, its to buy back STRC or MSTR at a discount. Why shouldnt Saylor buy back STRC at $80 or $90 when they sold it at $100?

_BreakingGood_

Wait untill MSTR blows up, then buy. Their current funding gives them a maximum of 17 months, but it will probably happen before that

SilverPrivateer

To be fair most of the MSTR financial products were also made with AI

PresidentRevrac

How does MSTR pay for the dividends? What product does it produce? This screams some sort of scam

fan_of_hakiksexydays

"$MSTR can sit for 17 months and be fine" Famous last words. All the cope narrative of MSTR gives me such LUNA/FTX vibes, along with all the famous last words of all the shit that collapsed in this space in the past.

usrname_chex_out

Tbh I agree if I had to guess we go lower at least one more time, idk if that’s this week or October or some other time. The whole MSTR/STRC thing is nice to see though cause that’s definitely the kind of stuff that happens near bottoms. Maybe the bottom happens when they sell 1B worth of btc to cover dividends? Still 58-62k was good enough for me and I put in about half to 2/3rds of what I want to get in

HSuke

It's $1.25B on top of another $1B for STRC buybacks and $1B for MSTR buybacks. So about 55000 BTC total.

Infamous_Mechanic356

Selling your .2 btc is not going to rock the market.... MSTR Selling 2 Billion in btc might have some effect.

Local_Math_5512

The people in this sub are horrible with money. STRD was literally trading at $50 earlier this month. MSTR sold those shares at $100 a share. Why wouldn't you want MSTR to take the opportunity to buy those share back? If you sell something for $100 and buy it back at $50 then that means you profit $50 while simultaneously reducing liabilities. Do the math people.

PopLegion

Bears making liquidation event scenarios is retarded yes. What is much more likely is MSTR becomes a perpetual seller of BTC for years on end as they never recapture 1.0 mnav, and BTC needs to deal with a constant downwards pressure for years. If saylor can't raise money through ATM offerings of MSTR or STRC, 1.5 billion a year minimum of selling from saylor. Def worth keeping in mind if you are long BTC. As for MSTR and STRC investors today, I feel sorry for them. I'm sure many made money, but the ones left will become bagholders.

HSuke

Basic mNAV is a very simple formula: (total MSTR mcap) / (total value of BTC held) Their website shows enterprise mNAV, which they quietly switched to late 2025. All 3 types of mNAV can be found here https://bitcointreasuries.net/public-companies/strategy

ds3101

Forgot to include that I’m not buying MSTR lol. But just market sentiment in general

Special_Trifle_8033

MSTR went up over 12 percent today so clearly the market thinks it's good.

BitcoinBaller420

ok well if you feel that way due to a desire for self-sovereignty for yourself, good on ya. If you feel that way because say you don't think MSTR represents leveraged Bitcoin exposure in a portfolio, then meh another closed-minded early bitcoin adopter who doesn't understand their worldview isn't the only one and that philosophical choices aren't objectively corrrect, but what else is new, this cohort's mental inflexibility is not news.

nafnaf0

Yep. They can now fund MSTR stock buybacks by monetizing BTC. Because MSTR shares often gets depressed far more than Bitcoin during the bottom of bear markets, selling BTC at bottoming to repurchase those heavily discounted shares creates value for the common shareholders. It is an active treasury maneuver capitalizing on market volatility and buyback discounts to structurally increase shareholder value when it is most advantageous.

supermanal

The four year cycle bottom is usually this October. If it is, I’ll be buying more MSTR.

OkRip7540

If they're just going to issue more MSTR, why even spend a billion dollars on MSTR buy back?

wolfenstein734

Im assuming they sell BTC to buy back STRC then resume buying BTC by issuing MSTR?

ClearSnakewood

Whole industry is under attack. This space is not just supply and demand. There’s also incentives. Big banks and Wallstreet have all the incentives to attack us. And price dumping so aggressively is not just OG’s and whales dumping. You’re telling me that whales and OG’s are also selling MSTR and COIN stock in paralel during US market trading hours? Lol. They hate crypto and everything associated with it. We are under attack. I say F them.

Rock_Strongo

> If it falls or just languishes, mstr can run into problems. Obviously. But this question is whether MSTR is a ticking time bomb not whether they might eventually run into some problems. Even in the most pessimistic realistic scenarios, they are fine until 2029 or later.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

It sounds more like they are using the news to facilitate an exit liquidity opportunity. Because let's be real, that's not a good news at all. That's the very thing MSTR doomers have been warning about, and will now just accelerate the problem.

SilverPrivateer

One month ago I posted this, and you called me crazy. Well, the MNAV went below 1.2. Then below 1. There's no more playtime. Now Saylor is preparing to dump billions on your head. You had your warning. Now you get the consequences. "Dear Bitcoiners, Hope you're enjoying the pump! Just remember - you would be at 35k without us. Did you read the latest Saylor tweet? "Buy more bitcoin than you sell..." That's right. If you allow our stock to dip below 1.2xMNAV, it now becomes accretive to shareholders to sell BTC to buy MSTR. That's right. Your precious coins will get a big, stinky dump. This is a threat. The MSTR army is kind. But we will not tolerate betrayal. You scratch our back, we scratch yours. You support our chart... we support yours. But if you lets us fall, we're taking you with us. We stink on you and all MSTR holders get bitcoin gain from the sale. That's right. We gain bitcoin, you get agony. Your final warning, from the MSTRer army. So let's keep this pump going... it would be a shame if the music suddenly... *stopped*"

Bred_Slippy

S&P flagged that because MSTR doesn't generate meaningful dollar cash flow and doesn't sell bitcoin to fund operations, it has very low dollar liquidity. A bigger issue is, under S&P's current methodology, bitcoin is excluded from equity calculations due to their perception of its volatility and uncorrelated market risks, so they deduct bitcoin holdings when calculating adjusted common equity.

devCheckingIn

They already announced a 12% dividend. Both STRC and MSTR are up +13% today so I think the market took the news well.

OkRip7540

>one of the criticisms from the rating agency S&P was that they were committed not to sell any Not quite, the concern was "currency mismatch" - Strategy claimed BTC as a liquid currency reserve but S&P disagreed and gave them a "junk" rating. S&P couldn't care less about willingness to sell or buy BTC, they care about the end state of the balance sheet and Strategy has been carrying low cash reserves for a while and that presented as a risk. Bringing cash reserves up to $2.5 billion helps to bring their balance sheet in line with modern risk thresholds - how they fund that cash raising effort is entirely up to them. Strategy doesn't need to sell BTC to fund cash reserves, they can sell equity via MSTR or STRC to do so

fan_of_hakiksexydays

They already had to raise the dividend on STRC from 9% to 11.5%, and will either have to dilute MSTR even further or raise the dividend even more. So whatever cash they had for the next 2 years, is getting depleted quicker than expected. Not that 2 years looked like it was gonna be enough anyway. People are still abandoning ship and not willing to come back, so that 2 years narrative wasn't enough to inspire confidence.

thinkingperson

Based on the charts, most recent date for op to have bought MSTR and "lose" 76%+ is 6 Oct 2025. MSTR is doing what it does, multiplied BTC both ways. If op and wife bought bitcoin then, it would have been at 125k, at the market peak, they would be down 53k. They would be complaining that they lost 53%!! Boohoohoo

snek-jazz

You think MSTR won't last 2 quarters despite having $2.5B in cash, and obligations which are much lower than that? !Remindme 6 months

ZUU_Music

*"They need to sell BTC to save both MSTR and STRC from plunging even further"* The irony.

MysteriousJaguar4577

This is BS, if anything he will be buying more BTC, he just sold more MSTR to cover and dividends owed for the next 17 months … do your research bro. !!

cptcolo0

MSTR stock is up 13% today, STRC is up 12%

BitcoinBaller420

No. The reason is that the returns from the credit are far too strong to justify a 100% capital portfolio even for someone on a bitcoin standard… except for those who are all in on self-sovereignty, which in a cruel twist of fate, is all the early INTJ-adjacent adopters of Bitcoin lol.  Assuming your goal is buying power appreciation, a mix of Bitcoin, STRC, and MSTR will create a significant improvement for return on risk over an asset that already shines in this department.  Good luck to you. 

Checkmate327

Are you one of the ones that payed a premium on bitcoin not to own it (aka buyinng shares of MSTR)??? Lmfao. this stock is for trading, not long-term investing.

Resident_Upstairs965

Read the entire conversation. Remember, it is at rock bottom when stock gets manipulated up. Where is the rock bottom? Ppl thought it was $200 price after tanking from 427. But then it kept steadily go down to 150 then stay afloat around 130 then sub 100. Ppl thought maybe once it hit 98 it goes back but it kept dipping. Crypto dying? No. MSTR not being invested simply because there are so many stocks out there (MU, KORU, INTC, UNH) to just name a few. Why would ppl DCA on MSTR when those pay 2-6x???

Bred_Slippy

Although they may, I think they've mainly done this for optics (one of the criticisms from the rating agency S&P was that they were committed not to ask any). MSTR are really gunning for a better rating from them to attract more institutional money into their prefs. 

HSuke

MSTR was mass banning everyone. That's why the r/STRC sub grew.

HSuke

All their shareholders were pissed off they kept diluting MSTR, and their STRC shareholders were pissed off they were letting it free fall without any communications or long-term cash reserve. Today's announcement was the most sane and self-preserving thing they've done in the past month. They need to sell BTC to save both MSTR and STRC from plunging even further.

snek-jazz

> I could have always bought NVDA for 5 bucks the same day MSTR made it's first BTC purchase. The difference is I didn't know how to identify NVDA's run since then. I'm sure plenty of AI experts or people in the chip industry made money. I know bitcoin and MSTR better, so that's where I had an edge. The only timing I needed was when to buy, and that was measured by FUD-level and mNAV and the usual signs of a bear market bottom. I don't think I can time tops as easily, but I know that at $200, and then $300 and then $400 that I'm happy to take some off the table to rebalance.

HSuke

Thank god they finally listened to reason after clowning around for the past month. All their shareholders were telling them to stop diluting MSTR and stop letting STRC free fall. Selling BTC was inevitable if they didn't want their share to crash even further.

00MacDonald

Dude it's not that hard, if you compare MSTR to BTC from the very first day they announced their first BTC purchase to today, you would clearly see MSTR has not been worth it. No risk premium at all, every MSTR dollar would be down compared to every dollar spend on BTC. And it's a pattern you can see for like 80% of the chart 08/11/2020 to date MSTR vs BTC. You can try to time it all you want, but 80% of the time you would be on the wrong side of the equation. not worth it. We can all try and time the market, and in my personal case with MSTR as much as I would have liked to sell at 400 or buy at 14, I still did extremely well with it. I could have always bought NVDA for 5 bucks the same day MSTR made it's first BTC purchase. Nothing changes the fact that from first BTC buy to today, MSTR has not been worth it compared to BTC. That's plain to see.

CryptoDeepDive

It's a public ally traded company. You can read their filings. I don't invest anything in MSTR, so if they burn it all I would be a very happy Bitcoin holder.

CryptoDeepDive

MSTR doesn't custody their Bitcoin directly. They use institutions like Fidelity and Coinbase custodial services. Saylor won't be able to burn the Bitcoin even if he wanted to.

snek-jazz

MSTR I bought for $14 went higher than $400. As someone who trades a bit, and rebalances a bit, it was absolutely fine compared to the risk, from my point of view. I think there's less upside now, but it remains to be seen if, or by how much, MSTR over-performs in another bull market.

00MacDonald

By virtue of its strategy, MSTR carries more risk than BTC. The performance of MSTR over the course of the last 5 years compared to less-risky BTC does not justify buying MSTR at all. I still own both, but I can be objective about MSTR. (I can buy BTC and MSTR just fine in my jurisdiction)

nafnaf0

They can now fund MSTR stock buybacks by monetizing BTC. Because MSTR shares often gets depressed far more than Bitcoin during the bottom of bear markets, selling BTC at bottoming to repurchase those heavily discounted shares creates value for the common shareholders. It is an active treasury maneuver capitalizing on market volatility and buyback discounts to structurally increase shareholder value when it is most advantageous.

PunchTheMonky

Anything can happen. \-MSTR can cause an epic implosion like when Mt Gox went down. \-Stock market can go bullish and bring in big money through the Btc ETFS. \-Stock market can panic over AI balance sheets and cause a mild downturn. \-Clarity act passing and getting signed into law before midterm elections can cause a mild boost.

beerbaron105

Once again MSTR is poised to become one of them most valuable companies on earth, leaving bears completely speechless. Willing to play the long game  Remindme! Five years 

korean_kracka

MSTR’s average price for their 850k btc is $75k. They are $12,750,000,000 in the red in their bitcoin holdings alone. This is not counting the debt. But everything is fine

snek-jazz

You'll find plenty of junk bonds offering rates in that range, that are not scams, they're just deemed risky. The question is whether the risk is correctly priced or not. MSTR depends on bitcoin's success. We know this.

Prnce_Chrmin

MSTR is the new Tether. It will blow up any second now! /s

nafnaf0

MSTR investors are well aware of this already. If you follow their statements and earnings calls, this comes as no surprise. I have seen a lot of people arguing otherwise, or saying other non-sense like they will just not pay the STRC dividends as opposed to selling the BTC if needed.

snek-jazz

and yet nothing happens. For example, if bitcoin goes back to 120k what will be different about MSTR, than if bitcoin had not gone under 75k?

thinkingperson

Well, then MSTR will indeed never sell lol

snek-jazz

the best times to buy MSTR have been when the FUD is at it's highest, I know because I've done it.

patatepowa05

hes not really retarded, hes just responding to market forces, they always get the best capital raises during positive momentum. The real retards are the MSTR investors.

Huckleberrysdick

When the largest holder of BTC starts selling for liquidity, the downward pressure on price snow balls. RIP MSTR.

snek-jazz

nothing specific happened to MSTR at that threshold either

whisperedstate

If you bought MSTR at $14, then you bought it in August of 2020, at which time BTC was trading around 10k. To match BTC's return (6x), you'd need to have bought under $14, around $13.50. So you actually made out worse than if you just bought BTC. The tax advantaged situation I have no idea about. In my country, you can buy any ETF in a tax advantaged account.

RevolutionaryArea532

I think they mean specific to MSTR, not that there's a specific impact to the entire ecosystem below $75K (other than holdings being worth less).

PrestondeTipp

Sell MSTR shares: - use the proceeds to fund preferred dividends and preferred share buybacks Sell Preferred Shares - use the proceeds to fund the purchase of dividends or buy back MSTR shares  *** What's missing in all this? Earnings! This is just an inefficient money recycler

WeddingPKM

There has to be some very real fear that the MSTR keys will get “lost” as well if anything really goes down.

snek-jazz

I've owned bitcoin since 2013. I've also owned MSTR since it was $14, during which time it has gone up more than btc, and I understand why it has. Additionally one reason I own MSTR is that it's in a tax-advantaged account where I can't buy spot, or bitcoin ETFs.

whisperedstate

MSTR's mnav is 0.99 right now. IF your thesis is BTC go up, why in the world would you do that through a complex set of intermediaries like this instead of, I dont know.. buying BTC? You even have the option from your bank account.

DaveLLD

I mean the absurdity of a "I talked to an LLM, and this is what it said", the entire history of cryptocurrency is basically people like Michael Saylor saying something, everyone believing them and heckling / downplaying critics until the financial realty finally catches up, the wheels fall off and tons of people loose a massive amount of money. Then everyone says, how could you not have known. Am I saying this is guaranteed to happen with MSTR? No, but I have heard very similar sounding songs for years, and they've all ended one way, despite each time everyone saying "but it's different for this reason". On it's face it seems silly to buy a company who's only activity is to buy and hold bitcoin when you could just buy and hold bitcoin yourself.

gigasawblade

Not his loss, MSTR "investors" loss

CryptoDeepDive

His keys, for his wealth. Not the MSTR keys.

ratpH1nk

That was $MSTR gamble. We already briefly hit 59k.

CompetitionDouble420

Meanwhile, I'll continue mining BTC quietly in the background while watching the retail guys quarrel over MSTR/STRC and BIP110 🤙🏼

ratpH1nk

I don't think, honestly, given their business model they have a choice. A bit baked in was a gamble that $BTC would not drop below 75k (which I think was their average cost basis). We are definitely below $75k. This was always the rational fear about $MSTR

Main-Towel-3678

There’s a middle ground that MSTR stock is a bad investment because of dilution to support obligations, but the entity as a whole won’t be in trouble as a result.

Civil_Pin_9682

Problem (disclamer: this is my humble opninion :P) is that investors are buying into AI now. And after AI it will be something else. I doubt you can get to 100K+ a coin again without the mass public buying it. If only investors buy it, and companies like MSTR and banks it will be worth a lot less, but it will be a lot more stable as well. More like stocks or currencies like EUR/USD. And then it becomes boring, no more fast money. But we'll see, time will tell. I sold everything I wouldn't buy right now. I'm waiting for the AI bubble to burst. I'm pretty sure 60K isn't the bottom. But then again I'm no expert I wouldn't know, it would be really easy if I did :)

Interesting-Jump-657

You must hate money if you are not buying btc below 60k or MSTR below 100.

anymonero

> Why is anyone buying it at $100 when they can buy it cheaper on the market There were people buying MSTR at a 3x mNAV so don't underestimate the stupidity of the market.

GregS73

Saylor STRC and MSTR are here to stay.

Davess010

I don't understand why it's a bad thing if MSTR would blow up. Surely the prices will crash but this would be a huge buying opportunity. Eventually prices would recover. If MSTR blows up, I might be able to afford a whole coin.

snek-jazz

> If those losses keep up, MSTR won't last another two quarters, and it will be very easy to hit those losses due to the apparent 6:1 leverage they're using. Bitcoin really wouldn't need to drop very far from where it is to cause MSTR to declare bankruptcy. This is completely false. Show your numbers or GTFO.

snek-jazz

pretty lame argument, since everything needs to be evaluated on its own merits. Saying Company X might fail because Company Y did in the past, is not in itself analysis. You'll also find similar sentiment to this in each prior Bitcoin bear market, and especially for MSTR in the last bear market. Lots of FUD about how they would be liquidated if bitcoin went under $21k. Bitcoin went to $16k and oh look! no liquidation.

Ryanopoly

Original Comment: What will happen to Bitcoin once MicroStrategy collapses and fails? from msidd32 via /r/CryptoCurrency sent 4 hours ago ChatGPT give MSTR about a 1% chance of going bankrupt in the next ten years.

Raymikqwer

People clearly don't understand MSTR. It's not in the best of positions. But it's a very long way from dump all their bitcoin.

PeaceAgitated1978

If you're serious about believing in Bitcoin.. like a true maximalist, you should borrow money and buy MSTR with it . 🤔🤣 Nothing else. In a TSFA,, 3 years later you might have instead of 25k.. 200k 🤔🤷 it's in the possible.. more like.. 175k legit.. but that's my plan. All in or nothing on being right!

Sea_Specialist_5580

BTC is fine. But I don't see a case for MSTR being anything better than a levered position on crypto. They are below their cost basis already. It's looking very bad and anyone unironically using the term "FUD" is likely a bagholder or at least deluded. There's nothing inherently wrong with a leveraged position on a risky asset. But it can and will absolutely get wiped out if bitcoin doesn't recover

admin_default

gBTC was about the equivalent of $8-9K BTC at the bottom. I loaded up then. But MSTR is very different. It has debt and leverage - much more complex with serious risk of dilution.

Royal-Blackberry6015

I’ve made plenty of mistakes but I’ll I can say is position accordingly and to your own circumstances. If you are single with $100k net worth vs $1M and having a wife and kids putting 100% MSTR is probably not wise. But putting 5-20% of your overall Bitcoin holdings into MSTR? Much better risk return structure. It’s actually the smaller but hedged bets that have compounded my gains the most. 

HSuke

Did OP say it's "dead"? This is a strawman argument against something that wasn't said. He just said Microstrategy is in a really shitty position that would cause MSTR and BTC prices to lower. He didn't say anything about it killing BTC or even specify by how much.

HSuke

Well, it's pretty damn accurate this time. Let's say this cycle is similar to previous ones, and the bull market doesn't come until 2028. There is no way Microstrategy can cover its obligations until 2028 without tanking MSTR's price by at least 50% from the 80% it has already dropped. There are $1.7B dividends annually plus $5.3B debt expiring by EARLY 2027. That's about $7B in obligations they have to cover, which is 25% of the current market cap of MSTR. There is no way they can sell 25% of MSTR without tanking its price along the way. It might go to near-zero as shareholders try to front run the sales. I don't see any good way around this without selling BTC, which will likely drop BTC price to around $30-40k, which in turn tanks MSTR. It won't be the end of BTC, and there won't be a death spiral for BTC. But I don't see any path where Microstrategy doesn't lose at least another 50% of its value. Lastly, suspending or reducing the dividends will be the end of Microstrategy. No institutional or serious investor will contribute to Microstrategy again afterwards if they halt dividends. That's a complete betrayal of trust.

DPSK7878

MSTR is the FTX of this cycle. I am patiently waiting. Bottom will be set when MSTR capitulates.

HSuke

Stop making strawman arguements. He didn't say death spiral. They can have downward spiral that wipes out most of the value for half a decade without a full death spiral. Pausing dividends is the death of STRC. No one will ever trust them again. It won't completely kill MSTR, but it's practically just as bad.

PopLegion

mnav is below 1.0, STRC is trading 25% below par, and MSTR only has about 10 months of cash burn till it cannot service its dividend payments without additional capital raise or financing. Not to mention 1 billion in senior convertible debt hitting maturity in 2027. buying more BTC here is borderline a breach of his fiduciary duties

Typical_Breadfruit15

it is very simple actually MSTR $ = N of bitcoins \* price of bitcoin. If the bitcoin price goes down MSTR goes down. The only thing he doesnt have to do is to pay dividends they can be stopped at any time.

RevengeRabbit00

You can’t know for sure if MSTR selling 32 bitcoin is what dropped the price of BTC. Narrative often follows price.

msidd32

ChatGPT give MSTR about a 1% chance of going bankrupt in the next ten years.

soorr

BTC can go to $5k and stay there and be fine, however if that happens MSTR will not be fine.

drummer9

Saylor never said HE would never sell. If you listen carefully he was talking to the normies, to retail when he said that. It is a generational loss for a retail investor to sell too soon. For a corporate entity like MSTR, of course they have to sell BTC at some point.

BZ176

You seem smart. Is there a chance that MSTR doesn't increase in value as much next cycle as it did this cycle? For example, people just don't like MSTR as much next cycle so it only increases in value by 5x (the same as Bitcoin) instead of the 10x it did this cycle?

Comprehensive-Eye500

Not exactly. Bitcoin can simply have a large draw down and stay low for a long period of time. MSTR would be fucked and end in a death spiral. Bitcoin can still recover. BTC falls → MSTR stock falls → raising money gets harder → less ability to buy BTC/support valuation → investors lose confidence → stock falls more So on and so forth…… https://preview.redd.it/1gf3ezr284ah1.jpeg?width=1536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c7b6f4f862e418338713d709d6616ac5431cca8

SUMBWEDY

MSTR is being diluted anyways, they already had their 2029 bonds convert in march this year a full 3 years before maturity. The next notes can be converted as early as march next year which will dilute the shares by another $2.8 billion.

Comprehensive-Eye500

This is about MSTR, not bitcoin. Bitcoin will be fine but MSTR will be another footnote of failures in its history.

Comprehensive-Eye500

MSTR is one company that controls 1 out of 25 bitcoin that can ever exist. Tesla and SpaceX are 2 companies out of 1000’s. Kind of a big difference in concentration.

Comprehensive-Eye500

MSTR will be just another in the long line of catalysts (FTX, Celsius, Mt Gox, Terra Luna, Three Arrows etc.) that will create a huge draw down in Bitcoin. It’s not an if, it’s a when. I love and and am long on Bitcoin by the way but Saylor Moon is going to be part of the problem not the solution.

UC_DiscExchange

While that is correct, it doesn't correlate to your previous comment. If anything STRC pausing dividends is good for MSTR holders because they then don't get diluted for dividends they don't receive.