MSTR

Misher7

He’ll need to sell if he can’t roll over the notes / debt on his books when they come due. That works in a very liquid market where credit is flowing. If he can’t refinance or it has to be under terms that are more stringent then yes, he may have to sell some btc. It depends on the lenders and how they view him as a counter party risk. Right now lenders are tightening their asses and they may view preferred stock as collateral as dogshit. MSTR’s risk is not btc falling below their average. It’s becoming insolvent. And trump would be fucking dumb enough to bail him out for some quid pro quo (benefiting his now crypto bag). The optics on that would be on a whole other level of fucked up.

Awkward_Potential_

I'm buying more MSTR just because of this post. Counter trading reddit poors is the only alpha I need.

biggamble510

These posts are pretty wild. What's the next driver of the bull run? MSTR is going to start a selloff, institutional and ETFs are already engaged. Retail who can barely afford to live? Enjoy the coping mechanisms, I hope you have an exit plan.

Y0l0BallsDeep

MSTR is fucked. Michael Saylor is going to eat shit and sell his bitcoin very soon to pay his preferred share holders their 10% The only one who can save us is the US taxpayer if Trump bails out Bitcoin and pump our bags with taxpayer money

Impossible-Weight852

We need big players like MSTR to step up big time, but I suspect they may be over leveraged to do anything. They’re probably hoping that bitcoin doesn’t go any lower to save themselves from being liquidated.

blaggerbly

MSTR is leveraged 14% mNAV contracting is fair He’s never doubling his stack is he so no way it can be greater than maybe 1.5. Currently at 1.21 Bitcoin going down. What is fair to question is the company valuation based on unrealised gains when BTC increases and calling it profit. The value of the company has to increase/decrease with BTC price but that’s balance sheet value, it’s not profit. I’m no accountant, and it’s all smoke and mirrors anyway, but MSTR and profit is the weird thing to debate. MSTR is not over leveraged

blackjackn

All good. I'm still DCAing. When it looks like its bottomed out, 10-20% of my BTC dca will go to MSTR.

Complex-Photo-973

MSTR is a leveraged long on Bitcoin with a management team that actually knows how to use debt and equity to keep stacking BTC. Saylor has conviction, the company isn’t under near-term debt pressure, and every major BTC bull cycle tends to send MSTR up even harder than Bitcoin itself. If BTC keeps growing, MSTR gives amplified upside. To top that. Do you think there won’t be any rate cuts happening within the next 2 quarters? There’s almost 90% that rate cuts will happen, even with data points that didn’t release. And when these rate cuts happen, these are a trigger point to crypto to turn bullish. I’m not arguing or wanting you to agree. Just laying out my side of facts. Many people here are wanting to go lower just to benefit their mind, to enter at lower prices, that’s the only fact they have.

AdFormal8116

MSTR Ave is around 78k, so your only 25% worse of then someone who’s so vested they’ve bought sound 650,000 BTC I’d say not bad

mikkeltaylor1

Do you think black rock or MSTR are investing in Bitcoin just for a year? Bigger, more intelligent companies / CEO’s are investing in Bitcoin for the long term. What’s the point in trying to time the market when you can just buy and hold and get 50% ARR

Wildren77

Lol BTC could drop to 20K and MSTR will still be fine. They're never selling BTC.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

They don’t have to go bankrupt for common stock shareholders to get essentially wiped out. MSTR might dilute 10x their current shares over the next 3-4 years without adding anymore Bitcoin. They owe about 800 million a year in dividend payments on the preferreds and have 8 Billion in convertible debt that they will probably have to issue shares to pay for, except it will be even more shares if the current MSTR share price is less than conversion price. If Bitcoin gets cut in half and MSTR drops 75%, they’ll be diluting a ton each year just to pay the preferred dividends and then a ton to pay off the converts.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Dude, MSTR does not have guaranteed access to capital markets. You think if BTC goes to 40k, lenders are gonna be lining up to give them new loans? If they can even get new loans, it will be at horrible terms, which will force them to go bankrupt eventually anyway. I don’t think you really understand how this works.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

People who bought MSTR prior to 2024 only invested a few Billion dollars, own 90% of the company and have tens of Billions of dollars in profits. People who bought MSTR in 2024 and 2025 have invested tens of Billions of dollars in the company, only own 10% and are down massively on their investment. Early investors are massively in profit in large part from the investment of later investors, which dramatically increased the intrinsic value of shares because new investors massively overpaid. What does that sound like to you?

snek-jazz

refinancing can be done when your assets are increasing in nominal terms. Nice thing about the pref shares is that they are like debt has an infinite term so doesn't depend on anyone else for refinancing. As ever the argument will just boil down to "but what if bitcoin is still down by 2032 or whenever" - yeah, we know that's the risk, the thesis is that won't happen. If you think that'll happen avoid MSTR. What if bitcoin is up by 2032 though?

Easik

The main thing to consider is the timing of the bond maturity. There is a right to demand repayment or conversion date and it's a ladder. The first round is due 2027 , but the stock conversion rate is around $180/share. MSTR may drop all the way down to $70/share next year, but by 2027 I'd really expect and even bet the stock price is at least $180 by March 2027, so they'll just convert to shares instead of asking for repayment. BTC would have to be basically dead (under $20k) and stay that way until 2032 for them to go bankrupt. Or fraud / hack occurs and then they definitely go bankrupt.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Dangerous-Pea495 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: https://youtu.be/oOyp7rFDe2g I have admired Buffet’s investing strategy for years but fell for all the hype around Bitcoin & MSTR. He has at times been a little too conservative in certain sectors but what he says here around Crypto has some merit. I could have done without the fluctuating stress levels and still made decent returns had I listened to this or maybe been in a better position had I just gambled the money. The market is for investments not getting rich quick, not for gambling away hard earned money. Lesson learned *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

oakstreet2018

This explanation for the movement makes sense. I still don’t see how there won’t be forced sales in a big correction. I like Bitcoin but I really hate the systemic risk that MSTR poses. It’s kind of like how tether was before but seems to have now avoided.

Ok-Amphibian3164

You cank track all MSTR holdings on Arkham Intel. These click bait articles are so dumb.

VonnyVonDoom

This is literally perfect. Saylor making away with all the 10% of the BTC supply while using still using all the MSTR bonds and shareholders as exit liquidity to buy more BTC in major corrections. I just wished I realized how dumb easy these cult stock CEOs get all their fanboys money.

Chrissylumpy21

How’s MSTR going to survive this winter?

TwoInchClit

Imagine leaving that many billions of dollars on the line and posting something like that that could make you lose billions in seconds. Insane move, poorly thought out and investors should probably think twice before putting their money in MSTR if someone that bone headed is running things.

VariatCA

At least that's what we hope, yeah lmao. With no subtext, on the same day they transferred around nearly 50,000 BTC, in the midst of a rough drawdown for Crypto and for MSTR's share price, that post's timing literally couldn't have been worse.

gibcapwatchtower

thats not how it works.. it has to do with being profitable over a certain number of quarters to be eligible, so if it becomes unprofitable over a certain number of quarters than it will be able to be removed.. don't ask me how it's been profitable, I thought all MSTR did was buy and hold bitcoin..

harvested

What are you talking about? 2021 was a zero interest rate fueled blow off top that was littered with fraud and corruption. Sell pressure and interest rate hikes sent us directly to a deep bear. This year we've had a year of steady consolidation at ATH levels, shittons of profit taking without collapsing the price. Harvard University and Sovereign funds are buying, MSTR a powerhouse. I can't believe I have to explain this. They are nothing alike.

Beneficial_Light_770

I leveraged into MSTR instead of bitcoin directly

YogurtCloset3335

I wouldn't assume MSTR will stay in S&P at this point. It has lost 50% off the last 3 month high. Drops like that aren't really a good look for an index, they can drag the whole thing down with them.

ScrupulousBit

Can you harvest losses from MSTR and then buy IBIT and put back into MSTR after the wash restriction expires?

El_Peregrine

Financial institutions (MSTR, etc) have captured the upside. The downside volatility is still ours to have as plebs 

DarthBen_in_Chicago

Now that MSTR is in the S&P500 (and assuming it remains), money will flow into the stock on various paydays through pension plans, retirement plans, and asset managers. The collective “we” who participate in those types of investment vehicles are the exit liquidity.

TestNet777

Feeling like my 2x short on MSTR (MSTZ) is gonna make me a lot of money! Dump on!

Tim-Rocket

Thing is, if Strategy needs to sell in order to pay their debt ([$8.24B](https://www.strategy.com/)), they would not need to sell that much BTC\*. If they go the OTC route price would not even be directly affected. It may trigger a cascade of panic sells, but those will be paperhands with follow the leader energy. When, in fact, that would actually be really good for BTC, it would mean their (MSTR's) strategy paid off. We'd be seeing way more companies adding BTC to their sheets or even changing their operation to become a BTC reserve. \*Around 100k BTC, it's a lot, but it represents just a little bit over 15% of their holdings. Even less if you consider they have other sources of revenue (preferred stocks)

StrangelyBeige

If MSTR unwinds..oh boy, oh boy it’s straight to blight town for crypto.

VariatCA

I mean, the guy's trying to answer for MSTR being down 20% in a week / 33% in a month / -50% since BTC's May all-time high, while still having to answer uneducated questions like "Are you about to get liquidated?" and "We noticed you moved some coins today, DID YOU SELL??" Damage control is a much better alternative than radio silence, considering what's been going on with his company all year and BTC since October.

inphenite

He did not. They moved some coins into self custody. Stop spreading false information. There’s 500 people debunking this, including MSTR officially.

Tundra_Ratio

MSTR is heavily over collateralized on their debt. They can withstand an 80% drawdown without having to sell. In fact, on Monday morning they will be announcing a huge buy.

paxwax2018

How’s that work then? MSTR share price falls 50% investors wealth 50% less, ..?, profit?

DigitalDustChan

Most people don't understand that MSTR makes money on VOLATILITY. If he dumps the stock price than all his investors are just as happy as when he pumps it.

Complete-Nothing-758

the boys are crying like little babies bro? the unsinkable fiatship is burning down and the orange little boat is rescuing him, any other interpretation is pure garbage. bitcoins stil the same like a year ago, nothing changed **f**undamentally. he litterally EXITES THE SINKING SHIP. every MSTR investor thinking hes scamming you now and selling somewhat sounds pathetic.

D3VOUR3DD

MSTR is just breaking down below the neckline of an “Adam and Eve” chart pattern. Which means the capitulation is getting closer.. it’s going much lower

New-Ad-9629

I told my wife the exact same thing today, except that I have MSTR options and I'm fucked.

corporate-citizen

Hey mods, why doesn't this subreddit allow image upload in the comments like r/MSTR does? How are we supposed to discuss charts with annotations?

stellarfirefly

The point is that most people who are not exactly "in the know" about Bitcoin will not see it that way. Hence, the rumors about MSTR is selling off some of its BTC holdings.

BoringPrinciple2542

Fair interpretation but makes no sense in context. BTC price is falling which means it is currently becoming less valuable compared to fiat (looking at short term not overall history of BTC). As fiat purchasing power is increasing relative to BTC, MSTR begins moving considerable stacks, rumors begin that Saylor is selling, he then posts an image of himself on a life raft as the ship behind him burns. You may be correct in his intended message but the optics are bad and it’s a poorly designed message. The comments on [his X post](https://x.com/saylor/status/1989308024817598534) illustrate my point. His social media team goofed on this one.

Quixotus

Everyone's saying MSTR has been dumping BTC like there's no tomorrow? CEO tweeted a sinking ship while he's escaping on a life raft like a rat?

BoringPrinciple2542

His bizarre image choice doesn’t help with the rumors. Somewhat evocative of fleeing a sinking ship in my opinion. I disagree with 99% of the claims of market manipulation but I suspect Saylor knows this and is hoping to create fear so MSTR can buy the dip.

binary_quasar

You do not understand how any of this works. Either way, most BTC holders plan to be lifelong bag holders regardless of what MSTR is doing.

binary_quasar

You have a fundemental misunderstanding of how custody works. Coinbase is the custodian for their BTC holdings. This is a meaningless event and it would be illegal for him to lie to investors saying we aren't selling when they are selling. All of MSTR's BTC holdings are "on Coinbase." They dont even need to move it to the exchange, its already there.

binary_quasar

Every single bearish regard in history that has said this about BTC has been fundamentally and demonstratably wrong. Will happily add another wrong prediction to the pile, but what makes you think you have any insight whatsoever into the future of Bitcoin that isn't based on vibes and conspiracies about MSTR and Blackrock?

AdFormal8116

Ah the MSTR Strategy

Quixotus

What if BTC crashes to $90-80k? Is this even possible? How much destruction would that bring? What's MSTR liquidation level?

AnyPortInAHurricane

MSTR you got what you asked for 65% loss

Minute_Knowledge_401

Die MSTR die! 🤣

HesiPullup

People need to understand that if MSTR gets in the $180 range, they’re going to be required to start dumping some BTC which can be a bad feedback loop Not trying to scare, just put it out there

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Strategy moved 38,657 BTC from its known wallets, sparking rumors of selling as Bitcoin dipped below $95,000. Michael Saylor, the executive chairman, denied these rumors, stating the company is buying more BTC. The transactions included movements to Coinbase Custody wallets, causing market speculation. Strategy's MSTR shares dropped to $201, reflecting Bitcoin's performance. Despite concerns about its financial strategy, Saylor reaffirmed the company's commitment to holding and acquiring Bitcoin for long-term gains. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

iLLuSion_xGen

Norway has MSTR

Word-Alternative

For folks who aren't getting nervous about MSTR / Saylor's position, you're whistling past the graveyard. I won't sell, haven't sold anything since 2017. But this is creeping up on explosive diarrhea territory due to their treasury holdings and potential debt situation.

GettingFasterDude

I don’t own MSTR and never have. However, Saylor bought 640M BTC at $74K. BTC is at $95K. $Billions in profit. Where is the tragedy?

Beneficial_Poet_7983

"Apparently MSTR's mNAV has gone below 1. This means that the company has lesser bitcoin holdings than its marketcap." The share price has tanked in the last few months. The market cap was always well above its Bitcoin holding, sometimes 2x. Which means you are paying twice the price for BTC exposure than BTC costs. I think you likely have a very bad math issue, more likely a complete lack of understanding of what mNav means. "In such a scenario, MSTR cannot issue equity to buy bitcoin because it wouldn't make sense for anyone to purchase their equity when they would be getting lesser bitcoin exposure." In such a scenario it makes more sense buying MSTR, not less, as you are now getting it for 1x its Bitcoin holding, and not 2x.

Mantis-Prawn

He is MSTR’s captain, not BTC’s……

RastaBooties

MSTR holds 640k+ bitcoin not 484k, very reliable info you're parroting.

CryptoCryBubba

>Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) reduced its Bitcoin holdings Is this the "never sell your BITCOIN" guy. The guy who says he'll never ever sell? I guess he's selling other people's BITCOINs, so maybe that doesn't count. Semantics are important.

noxel

$MSTR - ARKHAM: SAYLOR’S STRATEGY CUTS BITCOIN HOLDINGS BY 47K Arkham data shows Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) reduced its Bitcoin holdings from 484,000 to about 437,000, a drop of roughly 47,000 BTC. It’s unclear whether this came from transfers or sales. This is the first reported decrease since July 2023, after months of steady accumulation. Saylor posted “HODL” on X the same morning, along with an image of himself appearing to escape a sinking ship. https://x.com/deitaone/status/1989321989320798640?s=46

Mantis-Prawn

MSTR needs BTC, it is not the other way around.  Bitcoin will be Bitcoin, also if we lose the humpback whale.  Might even be better in the long run…

llccnn

MSTR down 6% premarket. 

Simke11

MSTR holdings reduced by 47k BTC. Whether they were sold or just moved is unclear.

kingjoeg

MSTR isn't going to survive this bear market and poor 2025 bull run

chenrung

MSTR dropping under $200 pre market. BTC dropping below $95k.  How long before Saylor has to start selling?

Proper_Mine5635

People don’t know what fear actually is. When it dips below 75k and MSTR is freaking out- THAT is fear. Buy when Michael Saylor is shitting his pants.

hablandolora

At this point, this man and his company are doing more damage than anything to BTC. No country, big company, or billionaire is going to go all in on BTC knowing how much this guy has. If BTC were the world currency, his company would become astronomically rich, hence more powerful than most countries and all big tech firms. Absurd. Even though I would love for BTC to skyrocket, I believe MSTR having so much will forever stop it from happening. No one wants this man or his company to become the economic giant it would if BTC skyrocketed.

Urselff

Would it be smart to buy puts on MSTR?

ilikeplayingthisgame

Yeah, MSTR buckling is a black swan event. It would take crypto by extension many years to recover, if ever.

VariatCA

MSTR has survived worse for longer, and he'll have enough cash from the $STRC offering for another 4 months of weekly $50,000,000 purchases. Strategy is just a leveraged-BTC stock the same way BTC acts like leveraged-Tech stocks. They're bound to have worse drawbacks while BTC is in one of its moods.

ozera202

MSTR looks fucked

xarips

MSTR MNav below 1. Holy shit Saylor is going to prison

Rainyfriedtofu

I took my profit on MSTR today. I hope bitcoin pump again so I can rebuy some puts during the Santa rally.

parntsbasemnt4evrBC

IT is is hard to find reasons for a quick reversal without a mini crash capitulation candle in BTC or crypto in general. 1) MSTR shorts are locked in betting against saylor pushing thier bitcoin holdings value to a discount from a premium, each time they borrow money to buy more bitcoin they add to shorts even more amplfying the discount further. Eventually the stress will force them to stop the bitcoin purchases which i'm guessing is what the shorts are after putting the screws to this company and or they are waiting for broad capitulation in crypto. 2) Bitcoin whipsawed back and forth multiple times above 100k and fought hard to hold it but ultimately failed, when a level like this goes down quick without much fight you can usually potentionally expect a hard reversal or snap back, but when a level has extended fight it sucks in more peopel to believe it will hold creating more fuel to expand price the other way if it fails. 3) Fed board members speeches raising inflation cocnerns as the main focus putting the december rate cut in a question (50:50 now down from 65:35) creating a sell everything deflationary environment. Of course if things crash enough they would probably reverse course back to saying we need a cut but, its unlikely to happen right away or they would lose credibility so give a few days to a week of pain first.

VariatCA

They illustrated no *need* to start selling at all, even through the entirety of the last Bear Market while down over 80%. They own their BTC, paid for by stock offerings, and they reserve the ability to withhold dividend payouts in lieu of selling BTC to weather downturns. Their debt is also long-dated and miniscule compared to their holdings. People *really* underestimate MSTR's financial stability.

ithastogoupfromhere

at least I'm short MSTR but would prefer some nice BTC ralley

AnyPortInAHurricane

how are all my homelies today yes its me , i tried to warn you but you failed twice, you held scam , and you didnt listen to me $MSTR $BMNR destroyed

Large_Doctor3466

If you have a long-term horizon on Bitcoin, is MSTR a good hold?

Every_Hunt_160

Accounting fraud tanked MSTR stock by almost 99% back in the 2000 dot com crash

el_rico_pavo_real

That’s not how MSTR works at all.

VariatCA

Oh you mean like how MSTR was down nearly -80% from its 2021 high for *nearly two entire years*, and yet still came out the other side unscathed and unliquidated?

ED-5555

Yes,but its not selling Bitcoin yet,MSTR IS SINKING like The Titanic,but still buying with borrowed money at hig interest to protect what they have,but whenever they need to sell bitcoin at a cheaper price,it will collapse

baIIern

People here lack the imagination. When MSTR stock dumps enough we'll have a problem.

EuphoricParley

MSTR has already been under water, look at saylortracker.com

VariatCA

Not even close lmao. MSTR's Bitcoin isn't just some leveraged-long that gets "wiped out" in a dip.

theduke9

MSTR will likely have 1B in funds to purchase bitcoin by the end of this week.

dataCollector42069

except those making money on MSTR puts now

btcpsycho

I survived, and MSTR will also survive (MSTROKIN)

Human_Ad8651

Saylor the biggest short seller of MSTR in the world lol

KifDawg

I feel attacked. I rode MSTR presplit to 300, dumped and bought SMST. Just riding the cycles saylor, nothing personal

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR), criticized short sellers, stating that 'nothing great has ever been created by a short seller.' He dismissed critiques from Jim Chanos, a prominent short seller, and emphasized the value of Bitcoin and digital assets. Despite Strategy's stock being down 22% year-to-date, Saylor remains optimistic about the digital economy, highlighting improved industry fundamentals and investment opportunities. Over 193 public companies hold Bitcoin, though many imitators of Strategy's approach face challenges. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

The best part about when they talk BTC yield from the preferreds, they never mention how that yield is front loaded, and the permanently negative on a go forward basis. MSTR has achieved 26.1% BTC yield YTD, but like half of that is from preferred issuance, which will decrease BTC yield every year going forward by about 1%. So they are reporting the good part upfront and not taking into account the bad part until later. Sounds almost exactly like the accounting fraud the committed during the dot com bubble. They signed multi-year contracts and reported the revenue immediately and the costs later. That’s fundamentally the same thing as reporting the entirety of the yield immediately and the costs of the dividends later.

parntsbasemnt4evrBC

what do you guys think of MSTR turning from a bitcoin premium into a bitcoin discount, Youw ould think with 100k bottom that the shorts would be covering and shooting the premium up but they are are locked in going for hte kill instead.

Every_Hunt_160

Can’t see MSTR surviving if BTC goes to the next bear market, the amount of loans they took to accumulate BTC this bull cycle has been crazy

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

I’ve been saying this for a year. It was basically inevitable that mNAV would collapse to 1 or below, because there is nothing structural about MSTR that would give it an enduring premium. It was only able to generate yield because the shares were overpriced. So all premium justification relied on circular logic. Issuing debt at 10% is not a structural advantage, I can take out loans at lower interest rates than that myself.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

I mean if they skip preferred dividend payments the common stock will also tank and they’ll massively dilute. The company might still exist, but common stock shareholders will have 90%+ permanent losses. Bitcoin could eventually go to 1 million a coin and MSTR shares could be worth less than they are now.

TynHau

MSTR is useful for managing portfolio performance. When Bitcoin dips it‘ll dip twice as hard but when Bitcoin moves upwards Saylor issues more shares, keeping prices in check. It‘s the only way to stay in the red during a Bitcoin bull market, genius!