MSTR

Alternative-Junket28

L'action MSTR n'est pas le priorité de Saylor L'action MSTR va servir a nourrir STRC

Alternative-Junket28

L'action MSTR n'est pas le priorité de Saylor L'action MSTR va servir a nourrir STRC

Sonizzle

This would been more appropriate for when Germany sold its BTC in 2024. MSTR still has tons of BTC left.

TreGet234

How to try and outperform MSTR? I can of course just fullport MSTR. I'm also looking at other distressed crypto treasury companies but they are so junky and most didn't even manage to outperform their underlying token this week.

tenor_tymir

Invest more and you’ll make more. Maybe look into BTC related stocks like MSTR, they tend to move twice as much, then start looking into MSTU or MSTX which again leverage the movements of MSTR. You can amplify your “only 2x“ into the sky by choosing some of the leveraged products which I would not really recommend.

Romanizer

Likely 3 years from a peak with Bitcoin outperforming every other asset in each of these years. So yes, taking a position anywhere from now to December is a good idea. I don't know how you imagine a MSTR meltdown, but I surely wouldn't want to wait for decades.

Usual_Suspect8663

MSTR is gonna become so powerful in the next few years it’s not going anywhere

FewUnderstanding2214

Just buy bitcoin why buy MSTR? Don’t you want to control when you buy and sell your bitcoin?

Longjumping_Bet_8563

It's interesting how people want to compare MSTR's situation to FTX; they're not the same. MicroStrategy has tangible assets backing their Bitcoin strategy, unlike FTX's questionable operations.

JimmyWhatever

My plan is to keep $500K of Bitcoin (and or related stocks MSTR, IBIT, Metaplanet). Every time those holdings exceed $500K, sell.

JimmyWhatever

Everyone saying bottom in October. In other words, no way that’s happening. So three months ago I bought 3500 shares of MSTR , 1200 shares of IBIT. Didn’t need to “see it coming”. Everyone made it obvious..

QuietLedgerAcademy

1) Entry Strategy: The Blended DCA Approach Lump sum buying immediately after a pump is where most returning investors get caught. A sensible entry is splitting your intended capital in half: allocate 50 percent into a weekly Dollar Cost Averaging plan over the next 4 to 8 weeks, and keep the other 50 percent in cash to deploy on inevitable 10 to 15 percent pullbacks. This eliminates FOMO while preserving capital for better entries. 2) Asset Split: Spot Assets vs Equity Proxies Spot crypto should remain your primary foundation. A clean ratio is 70 to 80 percent in direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum (skewed heavily toward BTC for cycle stability), and 20 to 30 percent max in equity proxies like MSTR. MicroStrategy acts like a high beta, leveraged Bitcoin play with traditional market risk, so treating it as an aggressive satellite position rather than your core holding keeps your downside protected. 3) Mindset for Coming Back In Do not worry about catching the exact bottom or missing the initial move. Crypto bull cycles provide multiple consolidation windows. Focus on disciplined position sizing, keep the majority in spot, and let the market come to you. At [https://ledgersacadamy.com/](https://ledgersacadamy.com/) you should find all the answers you looking for in the future, or just google. I hope this answer the question 😄

JEI2E

You lot have been screaming "MSTR collapsing will be this cycle's black swan event" and the only thing that happened is Strategy maturing and selling off a small chunk of their BTC in order to build a bigger cash reserve stack for the future (and as a big middle finger to all the bears and scared investors). I'm not saying this company will never go down, but it's so funny that some people are waiting for it to happen before they'll potentially jump into BTC again. If it happens in two more cycles (which is 8 years), your "gift for a generational market entry" will still be tenfold of today's price. There is a reason why people on the sidelines will always remain poor. It's the worst financial decision one could make. Even worse than buying in at a wrong time. At least then you tried something.

FuckM0reFromR

The "gift for a generational market entry" will come *after* the MSTR meltdown. If you have money to gamble with you can try to wait till then. If you want a position soon, DCA Sept through December this year. If the halving/election cycle holds we're still 3 years from next peak.

JollyPicklePants1969

I guess if you want to sacrifice overall return for stability while you believe in Bitcoin, you can convert a portion to MSTR's fixed income products. You'll likely still outperform the stock market if bitcoin does well while cutting out the volatility.

Cartier1847

I bought MSTR at $125. I heard thinking positive helps with manifestation. Will leave my grump old self aside and try to be “jolly” this weekend.

Clean_Difficulty_225

Haha, yup. They don't even look at annualized ROI anymore or compare it to returns like the broader stock indices. MSTR will be back in the red soon anyways, the whole global macroeconomic environment is in shambles, we're about to have a stock market crash, this recent move in BTC is the pump before the dump.

Fomo_Family

"risk being left behind" is the bit I'd sort out first. That feeling is usually what ends up sizing the position, and then you're holding something you can't sit through. Also MSTR/BMNR aren't really a sibling to BTC/ETH. They're equity wrappers, so you're getting crypto exposure plus premium to NAV plus dilution plus whatever stocks do that day. When the premium compresses they fall harder than the coin does. Fine if you want that leverage on purpose, just know it's a different bet. Entry timing, nobody in here knows. And I'm not giving you numbers, those are yours.

Correct_Maybe4545

Did you read why they did that? Have you no understanding of how they rate companies and securities? There were criteria made to raise the rating of MSTR. there is a playbook. it was publicized and very transparent. you will see why in a few months/years that MSTR as a company will be insanely valuable. I am not a fan boy. I own BTC and a large conglomeration of stocks/real estate/ assets across several markets. I understand fundamental and technical analysis of companies like this and I can tell you that tax loss sales, balance sheets, SEC requirements, bond rating requirements... many things are involved in a sale. He is not forced to sell and he is not the entire company. You really need a deep dive in this... or not

mikitu

He wants to get STRC back to par as number one goal, he keeps saying that. When STRC is back to par he will just smash buy bitcoin and the sats per share will increase, with no MSTR dilution or BTC sales.

GovernmentNew6719

I shorted MSTR when it was trading above $300 and it's $120 today. Who is feeling dumb? lol.

Royal-Membership2303

I don't disagree, but on the flipside there are thousands of people not saying those things - like me, a lurker realist. (My bags are like 90% BTC/MSTR, 5% SpaceX and 5% Tesla) On the flip side you also have people who act like robots repeating the same stuff about S&P-500, DCA, blah blah blah. Its all good advice but it sounds so robotic in nature.

Shwayze23

Time to sell MSTR today or Monday but I think today will be good. I don’t actually think we’re back, look to the left of the last high and you’ll see the seesaw pattern

Dependent_Stay_6954

Obviously, the poster is a newbie to this 😅. Get used to it! Highs and lows. Definitely, not for the faint hearted. MSTR is in the highest risk category in IBKR.

freudianjustthetip

That's not a realistic scenario for at least 2 years, even if the Bitcoin price drops to 10k. MSTR current leverage ratio is 3% at 75k per btc. They have current USD cash to pay dividends for 25 months. They also aren't pumping this Bitcoin run because STRC is not at par-$100 value. Note the moment they hit par on STRC, they'll be pumping this bull run with 100s of millions of new buys.

Ok-Yam-6765

I’m holding. That said I also have some MSTR and will let it go when it goes over $200. Been holding that bag too long while the S&P does laps around me.

ledgerthrowaway12345

Shorting MSTR at the bottom of a bear market. Genius stuff

gororuns

Still it might not prevent their shareholders from selling their stock, which is set up in a pyramid model. Even if BTC skyrockets, there's a high chance all the preferred shareholders sell first, the MSTR stocks are at the bottom of the pyramid and left holding an empty bag.

snek-jazz

Normally a lot of the buyers in bull runs end up selling in the bear that comes afterwards. MSTR helped create a buffer for this. Loads of people bought their shares in the bull as a proxy for btc, and sold them in the bear as a proxy for btc, but the company is a buffer between shares being sold and bitcoin being sold. So overall they bought loads of coins in the bull but have hardly sold any of them in the bear. T

pydev99

MSTR sold a very small percentage of their BTC. The true test will be if/when they sell a large percentage of their BTC.

Rock_Strongo

There is virtually no scenario where BTC goes way up and MSTR doesn't benefit. They own 4% of the entire supply.

AugustinesConversion

No. Bullish weekly divergences exist on MSTR, IBT, spot Bitcoin, and Bitcoin CME futures. The bottom was in despite what cyclers like to parrot.

Octopuusss

“What a surprise” pretty much sums it up 😂 After years of telling people to think long term, the “prepare for difficult years” warning hits a little differently when MSTR is already down this much Saylor staying bullish while admitting the ride could get ugly is certainly something

Possible_Iron2047

**I’m heavily invested in BTC and MSTR. If Bitcoin hits $700k, I’m buying a private jet.**

ChangeNOW_Community

MSTR is one of those stocks where being right about bitcoin might still not be enough. you can be right about the asset and wrong about the vehicle you used to get exposure to it

kehmesis

You don't hold stocks in a company for the value of its holdings. Holding $MSTR is betting on them becoming the biggest bank in the world in a future where Bitcoin is the world's money. Otherwise, you obviously just own Bitcoin or speculate on the stock.

External-Milk9290

What is MSTR doing that makes you say that?

shelby_xx88xx

Ride the waves Been here pre split Up big even in this crypto winter and no worries at all holding MSTR. Trust in Saylor bro. You remind of the haters from back in 2012-2014 who were so sure BTC was a scam. Worse thing someone could have done is listen to them. I play to win and win big.

AugustinesConversion

You'd have to be a complete idiot to short this bottom. MSTR is the canary in the coal mine.

Wheaties4brkfst

Dawg just because you need ChatGPT to understand microstrategy doesn’t mean it’s complicated. Your info is out of date anyways, they abandoned bitcoin yield as a kpi after decreasing it for multiple months in a row. Go look the website. You’re now down to BTC yield of 1.7% on the year, down from a high of 13% on 6/1. This means that if you bought MSTR at any date after that you literally own *less* bitcoin than you did previously lol.

snek-jazz

I agree with you on that, I agree with the person you're replying to on their final statement. If you bought MSTR at peak FUD in the last cycle you got a 30x+ run to the peak (source: I did)

HSuke

The last few times Bitcoin shot up in the past month, MSTR either barely moved or actually went down. Today is a total outlier.

CryptKeeperCCR

That was good advice at the time because the MNAV was almost 4, but it's terrible advice long term. MSTR will almost certainly outperform bitcoin long term because of the built-in amplification. Basically, as bitcoin goes up in value, the senior claims on the balance sheet (which are in dollars) go down proportionately, which gives common share holders a larger slice of the pie. As they continue selling preferred shares to buy bitcoin, as long as bitcon's CAGR exceeds that of the cost of capital, they will always outperform bitcoin. It's simple math, and demonstrably true. The only possible way that MSTR could not outperform bitcoin is if it's MNAV drops way below 1.0, which never happens in a bull market. And even if that did happen, over enough time, MSTR would still outperform BTC.

shelby_xx88xx

**MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) financial engineering strategy is a sophisticated, highly aggressive corporate finance model. At its core, it transforms an operating enterprise software business into a leveraged Bitcoin holding and development vehicle.** **Is it complex? Yes and no.** **The fundamental concept is remarkably simple—borrow cheap money or issue stock to buy an appreciating asset. However, the execution, mechanics, and market dynamics are deeply complex, sitting at the intersection of corporate debt markets, equity derivatives, convertible bond arbitrage, and crypto-asset volatility.** **## The Core Mechanics: The Capital Markets Flywheel** **MicroStrategy operates a self-reinforcing financial loop designed to continuously accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) while increasing the amount of Bitcoin backing each share (a metric they term "Bitcoin Yield").** **Convertible Senior Notes: MSTR routinely issues large tranches of zero-coupon or low-coupon convertible bonds (often maturing in 5 to 7 years). These bonds offer investors downside protection as debt, combined with equity upside if MSTR stock outperforms. Because institutional demand for crypto-linked yield is high, MSTR has been able to borrow at very low or even zero nominal interest rates.** **At-The-Market (ATM) Equity Offerings: When MSTR stock trades at a significant premium to the net asset value (NAV) of the Bitcoin it holds, the company issues and sells new common stock into the open market.** **Asset Deployment: The cash raised from both debt and equity offerings is immediately swept onto the balance sheet to purchase spot Bitcoin.** **The Accretion Loop: Because new shares are issued at a price higher than the actual value of the underlying Bitcoin per share, the transaction is "accretive" to existing shareholders on a per-share Bitcoin basis. This theoretically drives up the intrinsic value per share, supporting the stock price and enabling the next capital raise.** **## Why the Strategy Is Complex** **While retail investors often view MSTR simply as "Bitcoin with leverage," the financial architecture behind it involves several layers of institutional complexity:** **1. The Convertible Arbitrage Ecosystem** **A massive driver of MSTR's liquidity comes from institutional hedge funds engaging in convertible arbitrage. When MSTR issues convertible notes, hedge funds buy the bonds and simultaneously short the common stock to lock in risk-free or high-yielding spreads based on the bond's embedded equity options and high implied volatility. Managing this relationship requires constant calibration of debt covenants, conversion prices, and stock liquidity.** **2. Premium to NAV Valuation Puzzle** **Valuing MSTR is notoriously difficult because traditional valuation metrics break down.** **You are combining:** **A legacy software business with modest, steady cash flows.** **A massive, volatile treasury of digital assets.** **An active capital-raising machine that dilutes equity holders while simultaneously increasing total Bitcoin per share.** **The stock frequently trades at a substantial premium to the net asset value of its Bitcoin. Understanding** ***why*** **that premium expands or contracts requires modeling market psychology, liquidity flows, and institutional access constraints (e.g., why some funds buy MSTR instead of spot ETFs).** **3. Reflexivity and Non-Linear Feedback Loops** **Popularized by George Soros, reflexivity describes situations where rising prices create fundamentals that drive prices even higher—and vice versa.** **On the upside: A rising Bitcoin price lifts MSTR stock, increases the NAV premium, allows cheaper capital raises, and fuels more Bitcoin buying.** ** ** **On the downside: If Bitcoin crashes and the stock's premium evaporates, the equity ATM mechanism closes. If the stock falls far enough, convertible holders may demand cash redemption rather than conversion, testing the company's liquidity buffers.** **## Summary of Risks** **The structural brilliance of the model in a bull market becomes its primary vulnerability in a severe, prolonged crypto bear market.** **Fixed Debt Obligations: Convertible notes carry maturity dates. If Bitcoin suffers a multi-year drawdown and the stock languishes below conversion prices, refinancing that debt or meeting obligations without liquidating Bitcoin becomes a major stress test.** **Dilution Risk: Continuous equity issuance increases share count. If the Bitcoin-per-share accretion stalls out, equity holders bear the brunt of dilution without the corresponding asset growth.** **Ultimately, MSTR has effectively weaponized traditional debt and equity capital markets to create a corporate proxy for Bitcoin, pioneering a playbook that other firms are now attempting to replicate.**

Crivos

MSTR pumping today

Wheaties4brkfst

MSTR boosters love to say that the company is doing “complex financial engineering”. They’re not. It’s dead simple. They get financing, and they buy bitcoin. Sometimes they sell the bitcoin and buy the financing back. That’s it. There’s nothing complicated about it all.

Gloomy_Dependent_985

MSTR and asst nearly 15% holy shit

binary_quasar

Couldn't have said it better myself. These people love to FUD MSTR and Coinbase. CB in particular has been on the brink of insolvency or actually insolvent for almost a decade now according to these shitsniffers.

jsands7

!remindme 1 year “This person is very confidently predicting against almost every professional analyst in the world, who was correct? Reference: BTC at $65,000, MSTR at $98”

snek-jazz

how about you check the numbers in the out of date shite FUD you posted? how many bitcoin does MSTR have?

shelby_xx88xx

I have faith in MSTR and the leadership. They are making adjustments to some complex financial engineering they worked up. They are the largest holder of BTC. And I am confident STRC is back at par and capital flows in heavy as crypto winter comes to an end. Now is when you take the risk and make the big money. But most people are scared and just wait for the next bull run, then FOMO in. Rich get richer, poor stay poor.

cyger

The MSTR story has changed a bit since they are selling BTC to stabilize STRC. Still, during a bull market it will likely do better then BTC.

Cisorhands_

Nope if I sell to MSTR OTD 😂

Pristine_Cricket_633

MSTR

dataCollector42069

Made 1.5k today realized. Paid off my student loans last year with MSTR puts

Plastic_Farmer3450

so you don't think this will happen??? [https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MSTR/gFBiqASd-STRATEGY-Final-decline-to-60-will-price-the-Cycle-bottom/](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MSTR/gFBiqASd-STRATEGY-Final-decline-to-60-will-price-the-Cycle-bottom/)

OscarCorterz_20

MSTR hlders must be jubilant lol

Monster213213

Long Literally biggest hack in history, on actual cold wallets, MSTR selling weekly no buys for 2 months, and it’s HIGHER, just. Sitting on 200 week MDA. You’d expect price capitulation with those events and a bear market. To me, this tells me the bottoms in. Could be wrong but it’s a strong monent

Right_Nose6852

MSTR is interesting play but feels like paying premium for something you could hold directly. Not sure about tax side in India but heard some folks use their relatives abroad or structure through UAE entities. Way above my pay grade though

dataCollector42069

grabbed some MSTR puts at the close 🤌

xaviemb

IBIT, MSTR, and similar vehicles can accumulate as much Bitcoin as they want. The Bitcoin network itself doesn't care who owns the coins, how many coins a particular entity owns, or what financial structure sits around that ownership. Ownership concentration is not, by itself, a protocol-level attack. What matters to the network is whether those coins ultimately resolve on-chain and whether the participants involved continue to operate within the consensus rules. You can build ETFs, corporations, custodial structures, treasury companies, derivatives, or any number of financial abstractions around Bitcoin. None of that inherently damages Bitcoin. The line is crossed when an entity attempts to exert control over the protocol itself... to centralize authority, alter the monetary policy, change the supply cap, censor transactions, or introduce some arbitrary rule that benefits the entity at the expense of the network. Simply buying and holding a large amount of Bitcoin does none of those things. In fact, there's an important distinction here: these structures can potentially distort the *financial representation* of Bitcoin without changing Bitcoin itself. They can create instruments that give people exposure to Bitcoin, or that allow them to play the USD/BTC “number go up” game, without changing the underlying protocol or consensus system one bit. The network doesn't need to care whether MSTR owns 1% of the supply or 10%. Bitcoin doesn't become more centralized at the protocol level simply because ownership becomes concentrated. The coins remain governed by the same consensus rules, and the network remains indifferent to the identity of their owner. The real question, then, isn't whether these entities are “Bitcoin” in some metaphysical sense. It's whether their claims on Bitcoin ultimately correspond to Bitcoin that exists and can resolve under Bitcoin's rules. That's a very different question from whether their accumulation of Bitcoin somehow threatens the network itself.

HSuke

They sold/diluted MSTR again this time for STRC buybacks and dividends. My big concern are MSTR holders saying enough is enough, and then selling. That's what I'm seeing in the MSTR sub: weeks of people leaving for good.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

This is never good news. That means he either sold more BTC, more stock, or diluted shares. In this case he dumped more MSTR.

Objective-Walk6780

In the past I would would do 100% cold storage like Blockstream Jade. These days, I buy Bitcoin related stocks like MSTR and IBIT (30%) store some BTC on RobinHood (20%) and cold storage the remaining 50%. Trust me, this is the best way.

partialbits

Unfortunately it's just an echo-chamber of pro MSTR and they ban you if you don't agree...

WordsHappenedHere

Because his entire business model depends on it. He cannot dilute MSTR and raise money unless the price of bitcoin high. When the price is high, It allows MSTR to trade at a premium to mNAV. Their entire business model depends on Bitcoin going up forever. It’s a scam. They’ll go bankrupt eventually and that will be the final crash wave coming for Bitcoin.

FixedGearJunkie

They are. Sadly they don't understand that for every coin sold someone is buying that coin. Else there wouldn't be a sale. Thank MSTR or Strc or Saylor or whoever. But whoever bought it did OK. Or at least will be OK in a few years. Or not. Who cares really?

SilentEmploy3649

bitcoin isn't dead, the thread is about MSTR

WordsHappenedHere

If Bitcoin goes much lower than people think it can. Like sub $20k then MSTR will liquidate and create a crash wave that will send Bitcoin under $10k easily. Way too much risk to be involved in crypto right now.

Mr_Eckert

I agree that the fate of MSTR is tied to the fate of BTC.

Sufficient_Mud_3179

MSTR suck until it doesn't If BTC goes to 200K, everyone will call Saylor a genius again

ackyou

If BTC goes up MSTR goes up. Not sure by how much but either way a short of MSTR does not do well in that situation. 

courtesy_patroll

Huh? You're saying nothing would happen to MSTR stock? If btc goes up their balance sheet looks very different. 800k btc at $100k per...

CollarControl

MSTR is the federal reserve of BTC

jkc7

Hmm. Seeing a lot of MSTR buy signals lately.

ackyou

Short position blows up. I wouldn’t have anything to do with MSTR.

SkidMarkShark

Self-custody spreads ownership and removes counterparty risk, making the system more resilient and aligned with Bitcoin’s design as permissionless money without trusted intermediaries. Centralized ETFs and exchanges concentrate coins under a few custodians. That adds systemic risks from failure, seizure, or regulation, weakening the network’s antifragility even though the protocol and hashrate themselves remain unchanged. Putting capital into [$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) (and ETF products) funds BTC purchases held with a few institutional custodians rather than individual self-custody. That concentrates counterparty, corporate, and regulatory risks instead of spreading ownership, reducing the network’s antifragility the same way ETFs and exchanges do—even as it supports demand and accumulation.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

> But that is materially different from saying the STRC already issued is permanently a loss today. Even using your own numbers and your own attribution methodology, the worst tranche has not yet crossed the irreversible threshold. And if the worst tranche has not crossed it, the blanket statement is even harder to make about the later STRC issuance, which started with substantially better economics. Thanks for agreeing with most of what I’ve said. There are a ton of moving parts and trying to get a truly accurate depiction of what exactly is or is not attributable would take more time than it’s worth. If you’re going to hang your hat on the fact that only 89% is gone after a year instead of the full 100%, I would say that is rather foolish. I will concede that they technically aren’t in an irrecoverable position quite yet, I’ll let you do the math on what CAGR Bitcoin needs to salvage the situation, I’m guessing triple digits. It’s clearly a disaster and I don’t see how a reasonable person could say otherwise. MSTR would be in a much stronger position today if they hadn’t issued any STRC. But this is the issue with STRC, it’s not that BTC just has to grow faster than the dividend rate, it also depends on the path it takes getting there. And having to keep years of dividend coverage makes that hurdle even higher. And the fact that structurally they are designed to buy tops because that’s when they have the most access to capital means it probably won’t be that great of a funding mechanism going forward either.

CommercialDuck7496

I think your historical math and data is mostly reasonable, but I don’t think it supports the conclusion and claim you started with. I’ll grant your framework for the sake of argument. The original STRC IPO bought 21,021 BTC, which you calculate represented roughly 10.9 million MSTR share equivalents of additional gross BTC exposure. You then estimate roughly 2 million MSTR share equivalents have been consumed by dividends already paid, and allocate another roughly 7.6 million shares of reserve building dilution to that original STRC tranche. That gets you to about 9.7 million shares of attributed dilution against an original benefit of about 10.9 million. But notice what your own calculation says: 10.9 million minus 9.7 million is still positive by roughly 1.2 million share equivalents. In other words, even under your attribution assumptions, the original July 2025 STRC IPO ... * the worst tranche by fsr*, because it was issued at a discount, bought BTC around $117k, and has accumulated the most dividends ... has still not crossed into negative attributable gross BTC/share. That matters because you’ve now clarified that your actual irreversible threshold is gross BPS going negative. On that specific point, I agree with you: if a particular STRC tranche has genuinely caused gross BTC/share to fall below the no-STRC counterfactual while the STRC senior claim still remains outstanding, then Bitcoin simply going up cannot make its net-BPS contribution positive. As BTC rises, the BTC-equivalent burden of the fixed-dollar claim approaches zero, so net approaches gross from below. If gross is already negative, BTC appreciation alone cannot push net above zero, sure. My point was, we arent there yet. We are closer than I thought for the OG tranche, but the others are substainally better. But by your own numbers, that has not happened yet, even for the original IPO tranche. So the statement you have been making throughout this discussion, that “the STRC they have already issued is permanently a drag on shareholders regardless of what Bitcoin does,” is stronger than what your own calculation establishes. What you’ve actually shown is that the original tranche may have consumed roughly 89% of its initial gross BPS benefit under your allocation methodology. Losing 89% is NOT the same thing as crossing below zero, and that difference is critical here. I also think the 7.6 million share reserve allocation needs to be treated as an estimate rather than a fact. Allocating 19.3% of reserve building issuance to the original STRC tranche because it currently represents roughly 19.3% of covered annual obligations is a reasonable simplifying assumption, but it is still an assumption about the counterfactual. The USD reserve is pooled across preferred dividends and debt interest, the capital structure and STRC outstanding balance changed throughout the period, and the exact percentage of the marginal reserve requirement attributable to the original July 2025 tranche was not necessarily 19.3% at every point when those shares were issued. A truly precise calculation would have to reconstruct the liability mix and reserve requirement through time rather than apply one current percentage to the entire period. There is also a potential accounting issue we should be careful about before simply adding the 2 million historical dividend share equivalents to the 7.6 million reserve shares. If some common issuance was used to replenish the USD reserve after reserve cash had already been spent on dividends, then counting the historical dividend separately and then allocating the replenishment issuance as additional reserve dilution can double count the same economic cost. You would need to follow the reserve cash flows and distinguish cash still sitting in the reserve for future obligations from cash that replaced prior distributions before adding the two buckets together. And there is an important distinction between gross BPS and economic value here. If you are strictly calculating gross BTC/share, then yes, cash in the reserve gets zero credit by definition and the additional common shares reduce gross BPS. I have no disagreement with that. But if you move from “gross BPS fell” to “that amount of shareholder value has already been permanently destroyed,” then the cash raised by those shares cannot simultaneously be treated as worthless. It remains an asset until it is spent. Gross BPS deliberately ignores that asset; an economic or net value analysis cannot. Most importantly, future Bitcoin and MSTR prices still matter until the tranche actually crosses your negative gross threshold which has been the thing ive been trying to get across FROM THE VERY START. STRC’s dividends are fixed dollar obligations at a given dividend rate. If MSTR remains depressed, servicing those obligations can consume a lot of common shares and eventually erase the remaining gross BPS benefit. If Bitcoin and MSTR appreciate substantially, the same dollar obligation can be funded with far fewer common shares. So whether that remaining ~1.2 million-share equivalent cushion ultimately gets consumed is not predetermined today. Even tho we woule probably both agree that it most likely will. I think the strongest version of your argument is: “The original STRC IPO has already burned through most of its initial gross BPS benefit, and if the cumulative servicing dilution eventually exceeds that initial benefit, then BTC appreciation alone cannot repair the resulting negative gross BPS.” I agree with that. But that is materially different from saying the STRC already issued is permanently a loss today. Even using your own numbers and your own attribution methodology, the worst tranche has not yet crossed the irreversible threshold. And if the worst tranche has not crossed it, the blanket statement is even harder to make about the later STRC issuance, which started with *substantially* better economics.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Go ahead and look up the historical numbers. When STRC IPO’d they issued 2.8 Billion notional and bought 21,021 BTC with it. Based on their Bitcoin per share that was the equivalent of 10.9 million MSTR shares. Since then they’ve paid out $10.94 in dividends on those STRC shares (through July 31), which if you go by the MSTR share price at the time paid (which is how you have to do it because they issue the shares the week of the dividend payment) equates to 2 million MSTR shares to cover just the STRC IPO share dividends. Now since the start of June they’ve issued 39 million more MSTR shares to build the USD reserve. The STRC IPO accounts for 19.3% of the dividend obligations so if you attribute that ratio to the shares issued you get an additional 7.6 million MSTR shares attributable to STRC IPO. (I’m even ignoring the BTC sales fyi). This means in total they’ve issued 9.7 million MSTR shares to pay for the STRC IPO dividends and USD reserve. So they have lost 89% of the gross BTC yield from the STRC IPO and are still on the hook for 330 million in yearly dividend obligations forever. I’m not saying future STRC issuance can’t or won’t be accretive. I’m saying the STRC they’ve issued so far is a massive negative for shareholders. They’ve given up essentially all gross Bitcoin yield already and the dividends will continue to be a drag forever. Once the gross Bitcoin per share attributed to the STRC issuance goes negative, it does not matter what Bitcoin does subsequently, they are already at a loss. The company would have had more gross and more net Bitcoin per share if they simply hadn’t issued any STRC period.

sykemol

Six years after starting the Bitcoin strategy, MSTR is sitting on an unrealized Bitcoin losses of about $10 billion, with a net debt of about another $2 billion, with a $2 billion interest payment staring it in the face. Over the last five years, MSTR has substantially underperformed the S&P 500 and even under performed Bitcoin itself. One of Saylor's preferred metrics is Bitcoin/share. This year that number has barely budged. In what version of this story has this been a good investment?

TooFewTulips

I get it. My friends have a knack for discussing investments. They talk about buying SpaceX and AI stocks and I say MSTR and Bitcoin look like good value. I give my brief analysis when asked, but they just come back with the FUD du jour. No criticism of analysis. Just FUD that Strategy’s 4% means Bitcoin is compromised, or that quantum is a threat — even they know nothing about bitcoin’s encryption, or most recently how miners are pivoting to AI. They offer no analysis of their stock picks other than being Elon fans and believers in Ai. They are like the personification of an X feed. I think many such people today just regurgitate the hot takes of the day.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Oh my god there is so much gold here, thanks for this lol. This really illustrates how deeply delusional MSTR supporters have had to become now. Strategy has not failed? Their whole "strategy" was literally stacking BTC and never selling BTC. But now they're not doing that. And now they've switched to their new strategy of buy high and sell low lol. Wait, your whole argument is that it bounced back less than 2 years into their new Strategy of buying BTC? You realize they only started buying their first BTC in the middle of 2020, right? Also the whole hype train about MSTR started in 2024. 2022 was 2 years before the whole hype. But the one that takes the gold is your argument that "no they didn't have to, they chose to sell because they wanted to show that if they sold it wouldn't tank the market". So it wasn't because their stock was tanking, their profit per share was going into the negatives, or that STRC was unpegging too much for too long, or that they were hitting losses in the billions, or that their whole system was collapsing. It was because they wanted to do a social experiment to show that if they sell the price wouldn't go down? 🤣 That experiment seemed to have failed. They started to sell in the final week of May when the price was above $73K. Then the market tanked. The only reason it stopped tanking (other than always having a bounce when there is a drop this big), is because of the very bullish march of traditional markets into record territory. Plus the constant renewed hopes that the war with Iran might end.

xaviemb

I find every single negative take on Strategy is based on 'feelings' not lot logic. I'm genuinely baffled at how any half intelligent person could think Bitcoin goes up, and MSTR doesn't. MSTR is literally designed to push Bitcoin higher, and mathematically ride higher (in USD terms) than Bitcoin if it goes up an average of more than 12% annually. These are not opinions... it's just data/reality. For some reason the Bitcoin bear has decided they need a villain this cycle, turning things that are good for Bitcoin into boogeymen as a vent for their inability to simply enjoy the dip. Wise up.

Laukess

I don't really understand your reply. MSTR holders want Strategy to buy as much bitcoin as possible. STRC holders want Strategy to hold a fiat reserve so they can be paid out. Holding fiat and buying bitcoin are opposites. They've even started selling bitcoin to increase that fiat reserve. Right now they try to defend STRC, and grow their fiat holding. I understand why STRC holders want this. I don't understand why MSTR holders prefer that to them buying more bitcoin? >Because we believe in bitcoin long term Can you expand on this? Would those people not buy MSTR instead over STRC? I don't really feel like you answered my initial question. At it's core, I want to know why MSTR holders are happy with the pivot to STRC. Sounds like it's against their interest, and you even mention that being the case on the MSTR sub, so is that the answer? They aren't happy? The downvotes are because it sounds vaguely like a critique of Strategy? I don't feel like the question was bad or in bad fait. I have no interest in Strategy myself, but I think the focus to STRC is interesting. Seems like a great way to broaden the product so people who don't care about bitcoin can get access to a high dividend stock/product.

quintavious_danilo

but wasn’t it available through selected brokers like schwab and fidelity earlier under a different ticker? I remember people buying it early and the ticker was MCSTP not STRC. Here are user reporting buying it under $90 https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/s/GvRQkFAZ1M But yeah, I did some research and i confused STRC with STRK which had $80 IPO. My fault

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Going to? Strategy is already coming apart at the seams. MSTR has already dropped more than 80%. STRC still hasn't been able to peg back for the last 3 months despite all efforts. Strategy hasn't been able to buy BTC in 2 months. And now Strategy has had to break from its core "strategy" and has had to keep selling BTC to keep itself from spiraling too much.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

The cash reserve came from selling MSTR but it’s a cost associated with STRC. It absolutely counts against the BTC yield of STRC. They wouldn’t have needed a cash reserve otherwise.

CommercialDuck7496

Because we believe in bitcoin long term, and this drop doesn't really hurt us unless it stays like this for years. Why would this push us away from MSTR? Your expectation made complete sense before the release of STRC and the other prefs. My guess is he is only gonna raise maybe 4 or 5 more billion dollars through dilution or bitcoin sales, that would be enough to cover the convertible bonds. and dividends payments for over a year. By then STRC should also be back up to par, and the bitcoin buying can continue (at the bottom!) My feeling is that most MSTR holders despise STRC, or at least thats the vibe I get from the MSTR subreddit. But I have no real data to support that, and I myself hold more STRC than MSTR at the moment, although I plan to rotate into 90/10 MSTR/STRC over the next 10-14 months

sssssssssssssss5s

Why would BTC ever reach 250k? People spout insane numbers but have no explanation. Its nonsense. MSTR already pivoted away from their hold BTC and never sell strategy. The writing is on the wall, but you dont want to read it.

CommercialDuck7496

This is factually not true. They bought like 120k bitcoin from the proceeds of STRC, and have paid 620 million in dividends, at current prices that would be like 10k work of bitcoin, He would have 110k more bitcoin than he started with if you ignore everything else. MSTR will not forever be worse off from what they've done with STRC. they currently have a lower net bitcoin per share because the price of bitcoin has gone down, so the relative burden of the liabilities is increased as a percentage, and they've had to pay the dividends, but if bitcoin goes back up, it will be a net increase in bitcoin per share again. I ran you through the math in a different comment. but the STRC IPO shares have not lead to a permanent decline in net BTC per share, if bitcoin gets to 185k by the end of 2028, Even the IPO, which is the worst out of all of the STRC issuance, will be accretive.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

How are you getting the current break even level is 149k? Are you simply taking their buy price and adding the dividends to it? Because that is the wrong way to analyze it. MSTR has to pay out the dividend every two weeks, so you must take into account the price of Bitcoin at the time they have to pay out, that’s when the dilution happens. It’s like when you retire, you have to live off your portfolio and if your portfolio tanks in the first year you’re screwed even if in the longer term returns are higher than your withdrawals. MSTR screwed up the execution because they decided they needed to raise 3 years of dividend coverage AFTER Bitcoin tanked 50%. If the stock market tanked and then you sold afterwards to cover 3 years of living expenses. Your portfolio is now so small that you need insanely good returns just to not run out of money. That is what MSTR did. They retired, saw the market crash and then went to cash. The only reason it doesn’t look this way is because STRC is only a small part of the total.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

I don’t think you get what actually has happened because it’s obscured by the fact that they started with over 600k Bitcoin before they issued STRC. If they didn’t have any BTC to begin with and simply issued STRC at IPO they would have 0 Bitcoin at this point, so Bitcoin could go up 100% a year forever and it wouldn’t matter. MSTR will be forever worse off from what they’ve done with STRC so far because they waited until Bitcoin tanked and then raised 3 years worth of dividend coverage. If they had done it at the same time they bought the Bitcoin this wouldn’t be the case. And future issuance of STRC may be accretive long term depending on how quickly BTC appreciates. But the STRC IPO shares have already lead to a permanent decline in BTC per share.

CommercialDuck7496

It is, because MSTR is amplified bitcoin, if bitcoin goes up 2x, mstr can go up 4x. They don't operate inefficiently, their operating company profits like 80 million a year, and they increase their bitcoin per share over the long run, so the fact that there are more shares, isn't really telling the full story, by owning a share of their stock you end up with more bitcoin backing up each share than you started with. I agree that you should always factor in opportunity cost. but if the belief is that bitcoin is going to appreciate more than 15% per year, then MSTR just amplifies that, both are above the long term average of the sp500

WillingCurrent3663

You don’t get it. The people who invest in $STRC don’t want Bitcoin and they don’t want amplified Bitcoin in $MSTR. They are fixed-income investors who hurt want a high yield. It’s the largest liquid capital pool in the world, which is why Saylor sells $STRC to that massive market to accumulate more capital to buy Bitcoin with. The people who buy $MSTR are the ones who believe in Bitcoin. And they buy $MSTR vs Bitcoin because they understand the mechanics and that it’s a leveraged play on Bitcoin that outperforms BTC in bull markets.

WillingCurrent3663

MSTR is just an IQ test. Most folks just don’t have a high enough IQ to understand MSTR. In 1-3 years, $MSTR stock will be $700-$1,000+ per share easily. Save this message and watch it unfold from the window of your short bus.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

The stock would have appreciated more if they kept their original Bitcoin stack and didn’t issue STRC at all. MSTR share price can still rise if Bitcoin rises. That doesn’t mean issuing STRC was good for shareholders. They’re better off if MSTR just kept their original stack.

Laukess

I don't understand why this doesn't push away MSTR holders. Have they fully pivoted to STRC now? My expectation was always that they would be buying on the way up, not the way down, as that's where they can borrow the most money. But now they're also selling the bottom.

jwz9904

hail MSTR

SilverPrivateer

You all bit the hand that feeds. I warned all of you bitcoiners not to let MSTR fall beneath 1 MNAV or we would start our "stinky dumping" instead of buying. You would be at 20k without us... And now you poked the bear. Did you think we would not defend the dividend obligations? That we would not defend strike, stretch; and for you, perpetual strife? Did you think we would place the "HODL" ethos over shareholder value? This is your last warning. The MSTRarmy