MSTR

Responsible-Laugh590

Yea retail is abandoning it and hype has died while institutions have been grabbing a share. So it’s basically becoming the opposite of what it’s designed for, and tons of shitty grifters have been lauding it all year. Not looking good for crypto right now. Also the question of whether quantum invalidates it. Make some money shorting it, it’s the best time for it. Been shorting MSTR all year and it’s been great :)

Correct_Maybe4545

You have GOT to be kidding me. Read a few books and keep stacking SATS. This is not a trade, this is getting a better asset than Fiat. I have stomached 6 figure swings. Do you truly understand what you have there? The more you study and truly grasp self sovereignty, and an absolute scarcity limit, you will sleep better in life. On a side note, you will be happy when Bitcoin "crashes" if you dollar cost average. Do yourself a favor and scoop up as much MSTR till you have IBS, and also keep stacking SATS.

Skeewampus

Whales yes, but the volatility that comes from MSTR, etfs , options on all the things, and futures is new. It has changed the game. BTC and all the things now based on it exist simply to trade.

jollierumsha

I only buy and hold, and occasionally sell btc. Shorting MSTR in the stock market can be lucrative though

Background-Day-4957

Bearish for the first two months of 2026. Current headwinds: 1. ⁠Bank of Japan recent rate hike. Waiting for Yen Carry Trade to play out. 2. ⁠Bank of Japan to start, in January 2026, “slowly” selling their long held ETFs, which will further decrease liquidity. 3. ⁠Morgan Stanley’s (not JP Morgan) decision on January 15 to possibly exclude from their MSCI indices DAT companies which hold more than 50% of their value in crypto, like MSTR. 4. ⁠MSCI review and changes to their indices on February 10th. 5. ⁠Possible prolonged government shutdown again over spending and healthcare subsidies. We saw what happened to the price of crypto in October and November during the previous shutdown. 6. ⁠Supreme Court ruling over legality of Trump’s emergency tariffs, resulting in increased volatility. Be patient and buy the dip.

VariatCA

...They haven't purchased anywhere close to the amount of BTC that has been mined since they began their purchases back in 2020. Even just from 2021 until the 2024 halving, there was ~328,500 BTC being mined every year, and about half that yearly rate since the last halving ~18 months ago or so. MSTR owns about 671,000 Bitcoin. They began purchasing back in August 2020. Since then, there were about *1,500,000* Bitcoin mined between then and now.

HSuke

At least it's not MSTR. Down 50% since the start of Millennia.

JeremyLinForever

I have this dilemma and I’m not sure if other people feel the same way - every time I get dividends from income Bitcoin ETFs, my mind tells me to plow it back into spot Bitcoin ETFs or just buy cold BTC, but my heart says to yolo that in double leveraged Bitcoin ETFs and MSTR…

devCheckingIn

Crypto stocks getting pummeled again while the overall market is green. Can't wait to see quarterly earnings for some of these guys like COIN and MSTR. I'm surprised analysts still have buy calls out for this stuff.

djihadmechekef

The 'Ponzi' label gets thrown around a lot whenever the premium on these treasury stocks cools down. But there's a huge difference between a bubble bursting and a valuation normalizing. MSTR and others aren't just 'holding' BTC; they are institutionalizing the adoption. As long as they keep stacking and the BTC supply remains capped, the mNAV heading toward 1 is just a healthier entry point, not the end of the model. Do you think we’ll ever see these companies trade at a discount to their holdings, or is the premium here to stay?

harvested

I wouldn't touch any corp except MSTR, they are the only bear-tested.

jarviez

That's funny. This is my story ... and yet it's not one of my alt accounts. Weird! 🤣😉 I will admit that buying into MSTR this summer has hurt me a lot.🤮 But I'm kinda used to it because I too watched my BTC purchased at 42K drop to 16K. ... But, never sold so doing fine. 😎

biba8163

> smart money are buying Smart Money is SHILLING. Tom Lee was appointed as chairman to BMNR for marketing reasons. He is a PAID SHILLER who got compensated 226,722 shares of BMNR. There is a proposal to give Tom Lee 4.5 Million more shares based on the criteria below. For instance, Tom Lee would get 1,000,000 shares (about $30 Million at today's price) when BMNR gets 5% of ETH whether ETH is $1K or $5K. And if BMNR stock hits $250K, Tom Lee would get about $250 Million. | Performance Criteria | Hurdle | Shares | |:-----------|------------:|:------------:| | Share of ETH | 4% | 500,000 | Share of ETH | 5% | 1,000,000 | BMNR Stock Price | $125 | 500,000 | BMNR Stock Price | $250 | 1,000,000 | BMNR Marketcap | $25 Billion | 500,000 | BMNR Marketcap | $50 Billion | 1,000.000 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/149315225026868?cik=1829311 If Tom Lee genuinely considers ETH the **"Biggest Macro Trade of the Next Decade"** then: - Why was he not screaming this in 2024 or before July 2025 when he was marketed as the chairman of BMNR? - Why has he not allocated a percentage to ETH in his OWN ETF, Fundstrat's flagship ETF? - Why is Tom Lee allocating to BTC in his very own ETF portfolio through MSTR and not have ANY exposure to ETH? - Why does he not even understand the basics of Ethereum and call it a fork of Bitcoin? https://grannyshots.com/holdings/ **No, Tom Lee suddenly started shilling the hell out of ETH since June 2025 because he was appointed Chairman of BMNR and is getting handsomely compensated to SHILL SHILL SHILL.**

Objective-Win7524

Just replace "Banks" with "MSTR"

sirbrow

Good points. Quantum is a long-horizon risk, but there are active proposals like BIP-360 to enable a post‑quantum migration path. BTC is mostly saved today, yet Lightning usage is growing—public capacity recently hit ~5,606 BTC. MSTR index pressure affects MSTR, not Bitcoin’s core rules.

poloace

Here is something of interest- I’m all team bitcoin. But I’ve realized a number of people have fled over to btc as apparently the mods here keep booting any convos that seem anyway negative towards bitcoin. I’m concerned about quantum computing Also concerned that we aren’t using bitcoin, just hoarding it. Also concerned about what happens as MSTR cools their buying in jeopardy of having their stock price drop and being excluded from different indices. Indeed, a lot is happening…. A lot of concern, but none of it is making its way to this subreddit bc of moderation.

TestNet777

TestNet777 predicts Bitcoin cycle break, crash in 2026 and bankruptcy of MSTR.

choconou

is the model of btc tc dead ? a few month ago , value of btc tc stocks rose each day, investors flocked to buy shares and convertible bonds . With that companies was buying btc , btc quantity was rising steadily , companies indicated previsions for btc they should own in the future . and people anticipated: they bought the share today for the value of the btc / share of the future , a future depending of the speed of increase of btc owned , from 200 days for recent companies to severals years for old companies as MSTR . nNAV reached value up to 10 , a creation of wealth from nothing of 9 times value of btc owned ! Now it’s more difficult to find investors and they are reluctant to buy shares falling almost everyday , and there is the btc fall. So speed of rise of btc owned falls and effect of anticipation falls also , mNAV falls and is quietly going to 1 . All wealth created from nothing dissipears , only management and some early investors earn something all the others lose money . And the question is now if price of share can go under mNAV =1 , value of 1 imply that company is liquidated , btc sold and money from them distributed to shareholders . But something all the people in place would prefer that company go on and pays them salaries and give free shares for many more years while selling btc . They will try to block liquidation , so people will see the quantity of owned btc and price of share decease.

Wanderlust-Bow

That’s a good summary, but the key risk people keep glossing over isn’t just MSCI exclusion or passive selling — it’s the reflexivity. MicroStrategy is effectively a leveraged BTC proxy at this point: stock down → equity issuance / debt optics worsen → sentiment pressure → more volatility than BTC itself. Works incredibly well in bull phases, but in prolonged drawdowns MSTR can underperform spot BTC by a lot. Anyone holding it should understand they’re not buying “Bitcoin”, they’re buying a highly convex, corporate-structured bet on Bitcoin with real balance-sheet and index risks layered on top.

ChaoticDad21

Fiat and MSTR shares have no bottom

elegant-jr

My question is why would anyone be buying crypto? Why not wait till MSTR collapses and is forced to liquidate? 

mathaiser

MSTR leaps.

SilverPrivateer

I did it. I became a bitcoiner weeks ago via MSTR and held through a big drop, nearly 10%. Came to this sub. Asked people how they weathered tough time, learned to WAGMI, diamond hand, and HODL. Upwards and onwards.

RetiredAvocado

I'm not a fan of this phrasing but meh, don't have much of a choice. I think Saylor started this. And he's thinking from his own circumstances, where he does not have custody of MSTR's bitcoin keys. It's quite cumbersome to say "I have custody of my bitcoin keys." So he said self-custody, and a few copycats picked up on it and now it's stuck. Self-custody is redundant when saying I have custody. Self is implied if you have it. And it's often verb-ified. Like "I self-custody my coins." Custody is not an action. It's something one has, not something one does. But language gets mangled all the time, for good or bad. Someone started saying "compute" instead of "computation" and oh boy do they sound pretentious. Saving 1/4 of a second noun-ifying a verb. "Grok uses 200K nvidia units for compute." I hear goobers on tech youtube saying it that way and like, brah, you ain't no Elon.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, is signaling another major Bitcoin purchase despite its stock (MSTR) declining by 43% year-to-date. The company currently holds 671,268 BTC, valued at $50.3 billion, and aims to lower its average cost basis while reinforcing its commitment to Bitcoin. However, it faces challenges, including potential removal from MSCI indices, which could trigger $11.6 billion in forced selling by passive funds. MicroStrategy defends its strategy, arguing against the MSCI proposal and emphasizing its dedication to Bitcoin despite market and regulatory pressures. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Romanizer

And MSTR has a lot of different shareholders, so you would have to break that down. It's technically like a leveraged ETF.

Acceptable_Main_5911

Yeah I started DCAing into a silver ETF SLV only for diversity and it’s nearly my biggest winner for the year. I don’t want to talk about MSTR or BTC yet.

AlphaCryptoHub

MSTR is buying non-stop — anyone else slowing down is just letting them pull ahead. In BTC, hesitation = lost ground. 🚀

Churn

Strategy (MSTR) keeps buying though. If the other BTC treasury companies slow down or stop, they will just fall further behind the company they followed.

longonbtc

I would just buy bitcoin. Even Saylor recommended buying bitcoin instead of MSTR.

Seattleman1955

I don't join groups. I have Bitcoin. The more mainstream it becomes the better. That's it. The groups are for the obsessed and they are usually undereducated and underinformed. Just read the post "Who are these people who are selling? Never sell!". If no one ever sold there would be no market and no value. Or "I love it when the market goes down because I can buy more". That's just because they have very little. No one who wants a strong market wants a market that is always going down. I don't go out of my way to talk about Bitcoin but I don't go out of my way to never mention it either. I treat it like any other financial subject. I'm all for it going more mainstream and growing. MSTR does bother me a bit because an informed person wouldn't buy it but it is what it is.

carlpocket

I feel we still haven't had a run. This bull was mainly MSTR and institutions front running everything. There wasn't an alt season. Sure XRP and Sol ran (but FCC and FTX made those make sense to go back to a normal price). Zcash recently ran. But almost everything else didnt come close to new highs (eth did get a few hundred above 2021). Many coins currently at 1 year lows. Its been weird seeing only bullshit memes from pump.fun run this cycle. I kinda feel alts been in a bear since last Christmas and we might see some start pumping early next year. If not it seems anyone here since 2017 or earlier would never touch an alt again.

Pegasis69

Unfortunately not. I still have a couple of Bitcoin and a decent amount of eth, but I lost a lot on shitcoins in the 2018 crash (still holding some of the dead coins 🥲). My crypto (and MSTR) is worth about 400k in total, so not bad for a 33 year old, but also not early retirement money just yet either.

Trader0721

I think it would be better for bitcoin long term if MSTR is forced to liquidate…it’s going to be hell during that time but also a hell of a buying opportunity

Master_Jee

I’m going to sound like a conspiracy theorist here, but I don’t think Strategy is a pure “Bitcoin adoption hero.” I think it’s a giant reflexive trade that’s slowly turning into a systemic risk for BTC’s market structure & Saylor is the Trojan horse. One corporate entity accumulating 3%+ of the total eventual supply (and growing) is not “decentralization is dead” in the protocol sense, but it absolutely does centralize price-impact risk, narrative risk, and forced-flow risk. People keep cheering the buys as if they’re inherently bullish, but the how matters: the position is being built and maintained through layers of capital markets instruments (preferreds, converts, ATMs, etc.). That stack sits above common, introduces obligations, and depends on continued access to funding + a market willing to price the equity/premium favorably. That’s fine in a regime where liquidity is easy and volatility is trending up. But in a regime where BTC chops sideways/down for long enough, or the premium collapses, or capital gets expensive, or index/passive flows change, that whole machine flips from “infinite bid” to “forced de-risking.” And forced de-risking doesn’t just hit MSTR shareholders; it hits BTC sentiment and liquidity because the market has anchored so much narrative to one balance sheet. So yeah, I’m calling it that this ends one of two ways, either they thread the needle forever, or eventually the capital structure becomes the story and the unwind becomes the event. Bitcoin doesn’t need a corporate savior. Turning BTC into a corporate treasury megatrade is how you manufacture a future crash catalyst, even if the underlying protocol is fine. Whist currently still bullish, I’m worried for the future of Bitcoin as a result.

Professional_Dog8408

MSTR was trading well below mNAV every bitcoin bear market and every time has significantly rebounded. Whats your point?

Str8truth

Strategy has overhead costs that BTC and ETPs don't have. Against those costs is the prospect of Strategy shares gaining Bitcoin Yield (BTC per share of MSTR).

EmbarrassedYak1110

If Bitcoin falls further, MSTR shares can falls faster

SilverPrivateer

Bitcoiner, I own share of MSTR which own bitcoin

jwz9904

you are a MSTR, not a bitcoiner

SilverPrivateer

This is tough. I recently became a bitcoiner via MSTR and it's a real test. I'm going to keep diamonds handing but man I can't believe some of you managed to get through multiple bear markets in order to get huge gains... hope I can join all of you guys in attaining glory.

EmbarrassedYak1110

MSTR losing market premium is best understood as a function of mNAV convergence rather than a loss of structural appeal. As Bitcoin’s price is more efficiently priced into MSTR’s net asset value, the equity behaves more like a leveraged, capital-accretive Bitcoin vehicle. Compared with GBTC which was historically plagued by redemption frictions and discount risk, MSTR’s structure remains fundamentally superior

angel22tg

last cycle there was no ETFs, no institutional buying, no government backing, no pro crypto president, no MSTR with 600k+ BTC, no sovereign funds buying, no countries buying...

rudgeyyy

To jump on the tax side of things, it’s the same in the Uk, we buy MSTR in our stocks and shares ISA to avoid capital gains tax. So that we buy ‘shares and etfs’, you fool. Enjoy playing your tax.

habbadee

I once owned over 250,000 shares of MSTR.

Tiny-Design-9885

MSTR and ETFs are dollar denominated. You buy these when you want to play in dollars. Or the intersection of where dollars and BTC meet. Bitcoin on the other hand is a different universe than the dollar. Just listen to the talking heads: are they talking about how much bitcoin you can get or are they talking about how many dollars you can get in the future. The one talking about dollars and the risk to your dollars doesn’t get the premise yet. This is good for those accumulating BTC.

jawni

>That works to a point, but if the situation gets severe I think it results in full meltdown. Doing this should be the more sustainable way, you're more likely going to get into full meltdown mode by making bad purchases. Share buybacks under mNAV help fight against that. >And MSTR holds such a massive share of the market, the waves would likely cause exchanges to start collapsing as well. It's gonna collapse even faster if mNav goes below 1 and they never buy back shares. >Everything depends on BTC being above MSTRs cost basis in 2027-2028 when they have to pay their debts. I think it will be. This is like buying a dollar for a dollar and change, instead of buying a stablecoin that you know is fully back by a dollar for a discount. But not over spending is how they'll be able to save money and you do that buy monitoring mNAV and buying whichever is undervalued, the shares or the underlying asset.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

It ain't over until $74K fails. That's the confirmation of a bear winter (lower cycle low). If you believe the cycle theory, then Q4 should be the beginning of the end. So there's a chance it's over and it's "see you in 4 years". It's not an exact science, so there is still roughly a little over a month for a new ATH or even mania rally and still be within the numbers for the cycle theory. If you believe more in fundamentals, then QE, M2 supply, rate cuts, ETFs, sovereign funds, tariffs scaled back, and even stimmy checks, all point to a potential break of cycle in 2026 and potentially more bullrun. If you believe in doom, then you're thinking whales are leaving a sinking ships, then ETFs are gonna panic, then all these funds and things like MSTR are gonna collapse and it's gonna be a total collapse.

TheRandomArtist

I thought it was pretty clear banks are trying to force Saylor into selling by shorting MSTR and BTC at the same time...? No one gives two shits whether you hold or sell. They need MSTR to be forced into a financial death spiral, so his holdings are released to all the institutions.

InternationalType218

I appreciate your opinion and I agree to an extent. I’ve held MSTR and FBTC in my IRA for a while since I can’t hold actual BTC there. MSTR and XXI have possibilities that real BTC doesn’t. Yes it’s a lottery ticket hoping that they succeed in creating something from their massive pile of BTC. I would still like to know how one website calculates mNAV for these two companies so differently. The MSTR number appears to be right while the XXI number looks like they used garbage numbers to calculate it. [the miscalculation](https://bitcointreasuries.net/public-companies/xxi)

glasser999

That works to a point, but if the situation gets severe I think it results in full meltdown. And MSTR holds such a massive share of the market, the waves would likely cause exchanges to start collapsing as well. Everything depends on BTC being above MSTRs cost basis in 2027-2028 when they have to pay their debts. I think it will be. The only thing separating MSTR from a ponzi is BTC going up forever. I hope Saylor is right, I think he is.

ComaKaho

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that includes the 500 largest American companies. These are companies that produce useful things like cars, for example. It's not based on hot air, unless MSTR is included. But we hope they'll be kicked out.

curveball21

I think we have to "peace out" MSTR. Only after Saylor gets nuked can we be truly free.

Business_Sand_3094

[$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) has bought over 21,000 [\#Bitcoin](https://x.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click) in December so far. Saylor is not slowing down.

Business_Sand_3094

[$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) has bought over 21,000 [\#Bitcoin](https://x.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click) in December so far. Saylor is not slowing down.

Business_Sand_3094

[$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) has bought over 21,000 [\#Bitcoin](https://x.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click) in December so far. Saylor is not slowing down.

Equal_Classroom_4707

Dude, this has to be explained a million times a day. MSTR is in incredible shape to endure drastic BTC downturns. Source, Strategy and Saylor discuss the math ad nauseum.  Microstrategy leverage is not impacted by market price movements.  There is zero forced liquidation mechanisms. They can't be margin called. People don't seem to grasp that time and pressure is BTC's best friend, and strategy has all the time in the world with the way their debt is structured.  Everyone thinks in terms of margin, basic debt, leveraging, basic lending terms. None of those apply to strategy.

Crim3mast3rZ

Nahh they do this 24/7 and suck off any post about the god Saylor and MSTR😂😂😂🤦

investingtruth

So Saylor is absorbing more than the new supply hitting the market and etc is still down over the past 12 months? It's creating a concentration risk. One entity controlling that much of the float and being this leveraged introduces tail risk if MSTR is ever forced to unwind.

reebs81

See, if someone holds bitcoin and bitcoin drops, I don't have to sell. MSTR might have to liquidate due to its leverage. Once they liquidate, who knows what will happen to them. Leverage = Risk. That's why MSTR is below NAV now and was above NAV when the market was going up.

glasser999

Buuuut if investors/lenders ever actually want to get their money back..MSTR would have to either sell BTC or pay them with new investors money. If they start selling large amounts of BTC, it causes a panic, dropping the price. Causing more investors to start pulling their money.. dropping the price further. Feedback loop begins, BTC keeps dropping, and suddenly MSTRs bitcoin reserves pale in comparison to share value. MSTR goes insolvent. Shareholders get screwed. Very ponzi-esque. The whole thing relies on people trusting Saylor's longterm vision for BTC

Aerocryptic

They may once have been big? Bro they sold for 8 to 9 figures of btc 😂 There was a 2011 old wallet with 80k btc who sold this summer. Ain’t that big enough? The only one who’s really big in that list compared to these old whales is MSTR.

Confident-Tank-1036

Fuck Michael Saylor and his company. People praise him for what ???? Wait till his shit gets hacked, wait people they didn't buy Bitcoin they bought MSTR shares. And then they wake up. Gets offline wallet Get your own satoshi, no need for a middle aged guy that doesn't know how to shave his beard🤣 Yeah I am aware, I am a big hater of Michael Popeye.

ShanghaiBaller

It isn’t very hard to calculate. .93x is using enterprise value which adds debt to market cap, which makes no sense in this sense. Go to MSTR website, it says the actual mnav market cap-debt/btc holdings value.

CromulentDucky

The risk involved? Buying MSTR and shorting Bitcoin might present an arbitrage however, depending on costs to do so.

Informal-Ad220

Saylor expects bitcoin to return 30% to 20% long term, while his Stretch (STRC) investors give him 100% up front and expect 10% annually. If he is right, then MSTR will do very well. That's my understanding.

mathaiser

lol! MSTR bankrupt?! In what universe. The future is digital bro. Digital world. Digital capital. Fast. Move around the world effortlessly, instantly. It’s like… everyone still talking shit about bitcoin…. I just have one question for you: Do you think there will be more money in digital assets next year or less money in digital assets.

antaran

MSTR has obligations to pay dividends on their preferred stocks and repay their loans when they are due. So in case MSTR goes bankrupt, a liquidator will sell the BTC to pay off the debtors.

rickydickk

Because the internet is mad at MSTR

SeaworthinessSad7300

is MSTR trading less than the value of its BTC? Really? If so thats a brainless BUY. what am I missing here?

PirateSKB

On the 1 year chart Bitcoin is down 18.8% but MSTR is down 58.50% Stonks

dmitryaus

Nothing will happen. Somebody will buy their stack at a below market price. MSTR investors lose money. Saylor happily retires.

02bluesuperroo

I wonder what will happen to the BTC when MSTR goes bankrupt

Sea_Homework_8151

The real question is: does MSTR trade at a BTC proxy premium or as an operating company? The answer kind of decides who’s right here.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Peter Schiff criticized Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy (MSTR) for continuing to buy Bitcoin while the company's shares trade below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Schiff argued that selling Bitcoin to repurchase shares would better serve shareholder value. Saylor defended the strategy, emphasizing long-term Bitcoin accumulation over short-term equity optimization. This debate highlights differing views on Bitcoin's role as a corporate asset and its impact on equity value, with MicroStrategy remaining the largest corporate Bitcoin holder despite ongoing criticism. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

TimePyre

Banks doing battle to try and crush MSTR into a forced selloff so they can acquire BTC at a massive discount - putting massive downward pressure on BTC. When the battle ends and there is a winner things will get real

VariatCA

He has stated that MSTR's purchases are outside of spot-price markets multiple times. He does OTC to prevent market influence. It's also easy to look like he's always "buying the top" when Bitcoin has spent nearly every week steadily going down since August 14th. It trended down for 6 straight weeks after the August ATH, spent 1 single week steadily climbing, and has been down since October 6th. Any purchase he's made in a given week has been statistically underwater compared to the next week.

IggyRazlis

That was MSTR’s purchase for the day

ReliantToker

ATM has a very minimal affect on price action. The algorithm they use is programmed this way. A perfect example would be shortly after the mnav guidance announcement. ATM stopped stock still dropped. This stock has absolutely ripped to the upside the last 5 years. You have to understand that even at these prices some are still up around 7x on initial investment. Then you have short sellers piling on due to sentiment. Banks spreading FUD because the MSTR model is disruptive to theirs. Alot of forces are working at the same time here. In the end it doesn't matter because bitcoin will do what bitcoin does and MSTR will keep stacking and become one of the most valuable companies in the world.

Agitatednunchuck

Been a share holder of MSTR for a year now. If price goes up, Saylor hits the ATM to buy more bitcoin and the price comes right back down again. MSTR will only moon shot if Bitcoin goes up significantly and Saylor stops buying bitcoin which will rocket the mNAV up. Won’t happen any time soon if I was a betting man.

Illustrious-Boss9356

If all the BTC sits in ETFs and in MSTR wallets, what transaction fees are there?

brainoverflowed

do you buy both MSTR and BTC? is it okay to buy only MSTR?

InvestmentSorry6393

I knew I was right to put all my savings into a diversified portfolio consisting of BTC, MSTR, and MSTU. 33% each, with a 1% Trump coin hedge

NinjaChore

is one of those whales MSTR?

Advanced-Comment-293

>He is going to continue to dilute shareholders until he gets to his target, which just means you lose money That's not how that works. He sells stock and puts the money in ETH. Yeah there's additional shares, but there's corresponding additional ETH. If the company gets valued in excess of its ETH holdings then there should be a net positive effect. Big if though. I believe in that as much as I do in MSTR, which is not at all.

snek-jazz

Sounds like you've incorrectly evaluated the demand for bitcoin, including indirect demand via MSTR.

satsugene

If you are in the US look into the wash sale rule for re-buying assets within 30 days. Booking the loss wouldn’t be permissible. It gets cloudier if you are say, selling real BTC to buy one of the ETFs or MSTR even if they intrinsically or effectively encapsulate the same fungible assets and a question for your CPA or attorney.

ReliantToker

Yup but MSTR rn.

dataCollector42069

cant wait for btc to crash and make bank off these MSTR puts that are printing :)

ExtraGuacAM

Just wait until MSTR provides BTC with tons of liquidity when the MSTR game is up… MSTR is going to give BTC a bad rap if Saylor’s circle jerk falls apart. … and yes I own BTC.

ralphyb0b

They won't have to sell BTC. They just diluted shareholders to raise 21+ months of cash reserves. It would take a very bad black swan to sink them, IMO. With that said, I would rather hold BTC than MSTR.

ralphyb0b

I hear you. They are promising yield to MSTR holders through dilution. Not your keys, not your coins always applies. I do like that they are making it a base layer for different financial products. This was the use case that made the most sense to me, as it was clear that it doesn't make for a good e-cash or payment system for day to day transactions.

Maleficent-Map3273

He was spouting off about MSTR $400 calls 3 months ago. Classic!

No-Magician-2257

They need to short a lot more to force MSTR to sell.

The_AMD_Guy

MSTR alone has bought 20k BTC in the last 2 weeks, which is 4x the amount which came onto the market via mining during that time. I really don't understand BTC's price action, I understand MSTR buys OTC but still.

Snowballeffects

waiting for BTC to run to $130k then MSTR should land at 330?

syncronicity1

MSTR short today is a big gainer. Why don't you just go with the flow instead?-Day trader since 2005

Benzo_Head

MSTR is a huge ponzi scheme, not even good for Bitcoin. I think it will end up like the new FTX or LUNA

harvested

Yeah I think he's an MSTR holder :(

zxr7

I couldn't help but ask AI. Ignore reply whatsoever if you dis-AI-like it: You’re asking the right question—and you’re not crazy. This is one of the biggest misunderstandings in the current BTC cycle. Let’s break it down cleanly and honestly. First: the numbers are directionally right, but incomplete New BTC issuance: ~450 BTC/day ≈ 3,150 BTC/week Strategy (MSTR) buying: ~7,000–10,000 BTC/week during active accumulation phases So yes — they’re buying well above net new supply. On the surface, that should cause violent price appreciation. Yet price grinds. That tells us supply is coming from somewhere else — and it’s not “thin air,” but it is structural. "Where the liquidity is ACTUALLY coming from" 1. Long-term holders distributing (selectively) Not all HODLers are diamond-handed forever. Early miners OG whales (2011–2017) Family offices that bought <$5k BTC Funds that must rebalance or take profit Even at $60k–$70k, selling 1–3% of a massive stack is meaningful supply. 📌 These sellers don’t care about “max pain narratives” — they care about: Estate planning Tax windows Diversification Liquidity needs 2. OTC desks + dark pools This is the big one people underestimate. Strategy does not market-buy on Coinbase. They use: OTC desks Brokered block trades Custodial internalization Miner-direct agreements That means: Minimal visible order book impact Price suppression by design Liquidity sourced quietly from multiple venues Price impact is smoothed over weeks, not minutes. 3. ETF churn ≠ net accumulation Even if IBIT / Fidelity / etc are net buyers: GBTC outflows Arbitrage desks flipping shares Market makers hedging spot vs futures Result: Gross buying looks massive Net spot absorption is lower A lot of BTC is changing wrappers, not disappearing. 4. Derivatives create “paper supply” This is subtle but critical. Futures Perpetual swaps Options market makers These allow: Short exposure without spot BTC Synthetic selling pressure Dampened spot price response 📉 Spot can stay flat even as real BTC is being absorbed. Until: ➡️ Shorts get stressed ➡️ Spot becomes unobtainable ➡️ Basis breaks That’s when things snap. 5. Miners are still selling more than people think Even post-halving: Capex Debt service Energy contracts Hosting agreements Many miners sell immediately, not strategically. They are forced sellers. “Is China selling?” Not in the way people think. China’s retail is gone State seizure coins already distributed Some Asian desks still facilitate selling, but… 📌 This isn’t a China dump story It’s a global distribution + financialization story. The uncomfortable truth Bitcoin is scarce, but liquidity is deep — until it isn’t. Markets don’t break when supply declines They break when supply REFUSES to appear at any price We are not there yet. But we are closer than most realize. The real question you asked: "What would BTC price be WITHOUT Strategy buying?" No one can give an exact number — but we can give a range. Conservative estimate: $20–30% lower than current levels Why? Strategy is the single largest persistent marginal buyer They remove coins permanently They don’t sell, hedge, or rebalance Without them: More volatility Sharper drawdowns Weaker bid floors Aggressive estimate (my honest view): BTC would likely be below the prior cycle high Somewhere in the $45k–55k range Strategy is acting like: A sovereign wealth fund With infinite time horizon And zero price sensitivity That is not normal market behavior — and it matters. Why this has to end You’re right about this too. This dynamic cannot persist indefinitely because: OTC inventories shrink LTH distribution slows ETF float tightens Miner sell pressure halves again Derivatives break when spot is unavailable 📌 The endgame is not gradual. It’s a liquidity air pocket. That’s when price moves $10k–$20k in days. Final thought “I’m shocked there are still bitcoin available to be had.” That shock is the signal. This is what accumulation before repricing feels like. It always feels wrong until it’s obvious. Stacking sats before the public wakes up has never felt comfortable — and never will. You’re not early. You’re not late. You’re on time — but early enough to doubt it. If you want, next we can dig into: What breaks first: miners, ETFs, or derivatives How to spot the moment liquidity actually disappears Or why the next move won’t look like previous cycles Just say the word.