MSTR

MelangeBot

Yeah it needs the Bitcoin price to grow by 20 to 30% forever. If it grows less or the price goes in decline it stops working and then the interest payments force more and more Bitcoins to be sold of which creates a death spiral till they are bankrupt. Saylor said that they could survive all the way down to 9000 dollars per Bitcoin so you guessed it, we are going lower then that. Why? because it's very profitable for all the other traders to force MSTR to dump all of their 800k BTC. All you got to do is sell the Bitcoin you have, short the Bitcoin you don't have and resist the urge to buy any. Plenty of whales are more then patient enough to do this. And you know MSRT will eventually be forced to dump every single BTC if you keep the price low enough long enough.

Lavayo

Around 80% at current prices. Of those 80%: 75% BTC cold wallet, 25% MSTR.

poloace

Well, I’m pretty bad about it. I have an Apple Watch and I have it set to display bitcoin as my main ‘complication’ (don’t know why they’re called that but they are). I also have stock ticker MSTR displayed in the upper right hand. Honestly, i look at those often… but end up clicking bitcointicker.co more frequently which is bookmarked on my Home Screen on my phone. So…. Id say probably 50-60 times a day. I’ll be the first to admit it’s not healthy. Help!

ozera202

Is MSTR going to be just like FTX …. If so shits going to get much worse . FML 🤦‍♂️

genobeam

Ok but when they sell STRC they're accumulating debt. I definitely feel like I'm missing something. How does strategy reduce their debt? I buy $100 MSTR. Strategy uses my $100 to buy Bitcoin. Based on the mNAV I own ~80.6% of that purchase, for simplicity let's just say the Bitcoin price is stable and is issued in units worth $100, so I own .806x of these units. I buy $100 STRC. Strategy accumulates $100 cash and $100 debt. • Strategy assets: $100 cash, 1x bitcoin • Strategy debts: $100 cash, .806x Bitcoin After 1 year I earn $11 cash yield from strc and 16% mstr Bitcoin yield. Strategy accumulates $11 cash debt and needs to increase their Bitcoin reserve by 16% assuming your statement about 16% Bitcoin yield is true. Strategy uses $16 of their assets to purchase the Bitcoin. • Strategy assets: $84 cash, 1.16x Bitcoin • Strategy debts: $111 cash, .935x Bitcoin After five years my high yield account has accumulated $68.5 and my mstr account has accumulated .88x Bitcoin • strategy assets: 2x Bitcoin • strategy debts: $168 cash, 1.88x Bitcoin So if I cash out after 5 years, how am I getting paid? How does strategy pay down the debt they owe to me without accumulating debt toward someone else? 

undeadkarlmarx

MSTR is in no way similar to FTX. It’s not holding other people’s coins; it can’t face a bank run scenario like FTX did, and either way there’s no real doubt that they actually have the 800k+ btc with coinbase. That said, it could be the GBTC of this cycle where the share price trades way below NAV for several months, so buying MSTR right now may not be the greatest idea, even if BTC itself is near bottom.

Phylaras

Yes. Because they buy more BTC or buy back MSTR.

MelangeBot

MSTR is 100% going to go bankrupt, nothing can stop that because it was another empty box that you put money in to make it valuable so that people could get payouts from the box till eventually there are so many people getting payouts from the box that the new money entering in the box that has to sustains it can't be found anymore. When that happens 10% of the people playing the game quickly take everything they can out of the box and the 90% is left with an empty box. MSTR is set up to work like that and this will 100% be the end result.

MelangeBot

Just save up to have some money ready by then because even after the MSTR story has played out, Bitcoin still will be far from death.

Phylaras

Say your 1 share of MSTR represented .1 BTC ownership out of their large pile. A 16% BTC yield means by the end of the year, your 1 share now represents .116 BTC. Now MSTR's stock price might be down in USD, but you'd be up in BTC. Saylor thus serves two kinds of customers: 1. If you want USD gains, then you have STRC (11% USD yield). 2. If you want BTC, hold the stock.

BitcoinBaller420

I'm with you. I'm fist-pump allocating from STRC, only stupidly down, into MSTR leaps which are lol do-you-even-bitcoin-bro down. I know it's not the full libertarian life just yet, but it feels more sovereign than most, and I'm on my journey, running a node, paying off golf bets peer-to-peer and encouraging adoption in others where I can. Congrats!

kirillkovalenko

2017 ATH re-test quite possible if MSTR blows up somehow.

mne1237

Dont feel bad, MSTR is not looking good at current btc prices. At the moment MSTR is down 6% in last 24 hours. One of the biggest dips it had in years. You exited at good time. Be grateful.

Phylaras

That's what their BTC Yield figure is. MSTR isn't trying to deliver a spread in terms of dollars, because they think that's trash. They're delivering a spread in terms of BTC. Hold 1 share of MSTR, after a year you have 16% more BTC value added to that share. That spread comes from the value of their NAV (total BTC pile) modified for liquidity, etc. -- their mNAV-- and the share price for MSTR.

Phylaras

As long as MSTR can capture spread, there are going to be people willing to lend it money. It could come from that. It doesn't need to come from selling BTC. Right now, with 2.25b in cash, selling BTC is a choice around tax loss harvesting, etc.

mrxsdcuqr7x284k6

Damn. As soon as that premium gets close to turning negative investors are going to dump MSTR like it’s radioactive. That will put big downward pressure on the underlying BTC. And when he has to pay preferred share dividends again he’ll have to sell more BTC. And the spiral continues downward.

Tim-Rocket

What institutional investing did we see last cycle besides MSTR and El Salvador? ETFs went live this cycle, the "BTC reserve" looks like is now a thing (no idea how that's gonna end, but the narrative is there), and a couple more treasuries appeared. Also, MSTR is now on the NASDAQ, so while not directly buying BTC, pension funds had to buy MSTR. I'm just saying, there's much more money on the institutional side this cycle. How would this actually impact the market? Idksaf, rly. As I said, the drawdown could more severe than that of the previous cycle, or it could not. This is not a prediction, just an observation.

Top-Squash6558

If MSTR goes tits up it’s gonna be more like a Mt.Gox kind of crash.

SilverPrivateer

It's simple. If bitcoiners don't keep MSTR at 1.2+MNAV, we will continue dumping on them. Fat, stinky dumps on the bitcoiners. Why? Because it becomes accretitive to sell bitcoin to buy the MSTR stock. I gave you the final warning, and the selling started. If you don't want your precious bitcoins to be worth 30,000? You better prop up the chart. You scratch our backs, we scratch yours... Or we take a stinky dump on you.

Lavayo

You are right, of course that's the psychological reason. Which is totally overblown still, typical Mr. Market. 1. It's not the first time they sold. 2. Saylor said although he is known for the "never sell" phrase it's due to virality. He would like to have said: "never be a net seller of BTC", which is just not as catchy. And the clearly still are. They could sell 50k BTC and stay net buyers this year alone. 3. They did not sell for fun, and not because they had to but for specific reasons. This goes far beyond needing $2M for dividends. Counting the selling of 32 BTC as selling the bottom is... malicious. The cycle holds til it does not. Before STRC they were forced to buy at high prices, now it's different. MSTR bought around 50x the BTC in 26 so far than in 22.

CommercialDuck7496

Its not a question of if, hes already been doing it, the bitcoin per share has more than doubled since q3 of 2022. There are multiple ways he achivese this, currently the issuing 9f the perputual preferred equities like strc achieves this, but more traditionally, he issues stock when its trading to a premium to the net asset value. Here is the ai overview. Im sure there are better ways to explain it ​Here is the step-by-step math of how the company leverages this premium: ​The Starting State: Imagine MSTR has 10 shares outstanding and holds $1,000 in Bitcoin. Each share represents $100 of Bitcoin. ​The Premium: Because of the NAV premium, the market prices the stock at 1.5x its underlying assets. The stock trades at $150 per share. ​The Issuance: MSTR issues and sells 1 new share to the open market, collecting $150 in cash. ​The Purchase: The company immediately takes that $150 and buys Bitcoin at the spot price. ​The Accretion: The company now holds $1,150 in Bitcoin distributed across 11 shares. The new underlying value is $104.54 of Bitcoin per share. (And the stock still trades for $150)

dapzar

Nah, first, that's just not historically true. VC investment in the crypto space started around 2012, picked up in 2013 with Horowitz and others getting into the space, in 2016 you had the ICO boom, etc. Many all-time highs, in particular the long-awaited 100k milestone, were reached a long time after all those rich people got involved. Second, Bitcoin always needed the next big narrative, otherwise it doesn't work as an investment. It always needs a reason that explains why someone should pay even more for it in the future, and that needs more demand. In the late 2010s, these narratives often revolved around big private companies getting into crypto, there were always the wild "reserve asset" dreams around central banks and in the early 2020s Bitcoin ETFs were the big milestone, lastly more buying was driven by MSTR + copycats. It just may look like this because once all the rich people who are addressable by this are in, you reach a natural end point of who can be the next big buyer to drive up the price.

Mohkinstsis

They’d be selling bitcoin for 30k that they bought for 70k (down over 60%) to buy back STRC at $80 that they sold at $100 (down only 20%.) This decreases bitcoin per share for MSTR owners. When they sell that bitcoin they’re also decreasing collateral for STRC (and all other preferreds) making them look like riskier assets requiring a higher yield to justify them.

GabeDef

If Saylor can crash the market selling 32 BTC, then when he buys more after the crash he caused, then sell and buy again, you’ll understand why MSTR having so many BTC is a bad idea for the whole concept of Crypto. 

MelangeBot

Don't stress it bro, within a couple of months there will be a new bottom. MSTR will be going in it's dead spiral this year. It's the same mechanism that pumped Bitcoin and MSTR but operating in reverse. It works very well. After every MSTR little pump back you can short it. It's free money till they are bankrupt.

MelangeBot

so is crypto and anything that does not create added value. Imagine investing in a company that uses that money to buy machines to make chairs. Eventually the chairs end up not selling very well and the company goes bankrupt. The investors lost their money. They took a risk and lost. But there is still one thing of value that exists in the world that was not there before. The chairs that have been build. That's added value. With crypto and a pryamid stock like MSTR there is no added value. In fact it's even worse then that because Bitcoin mining has a real cost in electricity. A certain amount of Bitcoins needs to be sold all the time just to pay for the electricity. And what do we get in return? Well nothing really. Just make believe. Make believe that moves money out of the pocket of the losers in to the pocket of the winners. The winners have their pockets full of the money of the losers right now and have decided that they are going to stop playing the game again for 4 years. Now the losers about to panic because the new batch of new losers to take over the losing isn't happening because price going down scares them away. Rinse and repeat! See you'll in 4 years. And if you short, don't forget that if your exchange goes bankrupt you will still lose.

MelangeBot

Thanks for the great advice OP. I will sell and come back in 4 years after MSTR has sold their 800K BTC to then buy back much more Bitcoins. That's an amazing idea. I might end up with 10x more BTC then I have today.

MelangeBot

well he has no choice, he had loans to pay of and divident payments on their prefered shares. Usually the money to pay the dividents comes from selling more shares but when the price of Bitcoin goes down the price of MSTR goes down ever harder so nobody wants to buy the prefered shares till they raise the interest rates. Ofcourse to get the money for the higher interest rates they need to sell even more prefered shares which people don't want to buy because the price is going down so quick now, so then they are forced to sell Bitcoin. When they sell Bitcoins the price of MSTR goes down, which makes it harded for them to issue and sell new shares. To solve this they increase the interest rates on the prefered shares but that also means to pay these higher interest rates they need to sell more Bitcoin which lowers the price of MSTR shares ... etc etc It's the same mechanism that pumped the price of BTC and MSTR but in the other direction. It works very well in both ways.

Remarkable_Scheme888

MSTR is fine - you just lost money on it. You panic sold and it is what it is

MelangeBot

They offer prefered shares that pay ove 10% in dividents. The money to pay these dividents comes from issueing more prefered shares, and the cash they have on hand. They get cash on hand by offering more shares and by selling Bitcoin. To get people to buy the new shares they offer, they promise a 10% divident. To pay for this divident they have to sell more Bitcoin and more shares. But when they sell shares they are obligated to pay a 10% montly divident. To get the money for this they need to offer more shares and sell more Bitcoin. Since everybody knows this, everybody will reason that in the end they will be forced to sell all their BTC to pay the dividents. And since they have 800 000 BTC to sell everybody reasons that it would be smart to wait before buying more BTC till they have sold them all. So people stop buying. When people stop buying the price of Bitcoin starts going down. Then MSTR runs out of their cash so they offer more shares. But because the Bitcoin price is now going down, since they changed the psychology of the market by selling, now people are not that interested in buying their new shares. To make people interested they offer higher interest rates. 15% instead of 10%. To get the money to pay the interest they sell more Bitcoin. Since people are waiting till they are donne selling there aren't as many buyers as before so the price goes down quickly. Because the price of Bitcoin goes down the price of MSTR goes down. People don't want to touch their shares anymore! To get the money to pay their loans and divident payments they offer more shares and sell more Bitcoin. Why are people surprised the same mechanism that pumps the price of MSTR and Bitcoin as an infinite money making machine works JUST AS WELL in the other direction? The infinite money making machine is powered by the infinite money losing machine in the future. Duh. So get out now or suffer. Your call. And yes retard, I know that if everybody listens to this advice the price of BTC craters. But that's the fool's game you have been playing, know you have been playing so shut the fuck up complaining about it. Sell, short and be happy. Come back in 5 years to buy again or so.

Local_Math_5512

Your whole argument hinges on STRC dropping. MSTR has a U.S cash reserve of $900 Million yielding $360K annually through treasuries. If BTC drops to 30K and STRC drops to $80 then MSTR could sell another 32 BTC at 30K for another $920K and use that $920K USD to buy back 11,500 shares of STRC at $80 thus reducing annual dividend liability by $1.15 Million each time they do this. You're bad at math guy which is why you've brought none of it. Again. Why are you obsessed with me? Are you trying to give me head?

Trader0721

MSTR might

nafnaf0

Yeah dude. I simply can not believe the reaction to Michael Saylor selling 32BT. Oh boy.... He said he was going to do it, just to do it. They got almost no money from the sale of it ($2.5M). That is nothing compared to the $125M in new MSTR they issued on the same 8-K filling. Is he trying to manipulate the market? I feel like he doesn't care about those kind of things

Mohkinstsis

Except right now? $93 currently. In a scenario where bitcoin fell to 30k you really think people would have more confidence than they have right now? I think it’s a fine bullet to bite while still believing in MSTR. Pretty easy to say you think the market overreacted and won’t fall to 30k even if MSTR starts selling more bitcoin. Just wild to think a bitcoin treasury company would have more demand with less assets backing them.

Mohkinstsis

In this case they can’t raise capital in anyway to increase bitcoin per share. If STRC is below $100 (even with high dividend), MSTR is priced at NAV, how do they raise capital to acquire more bitcoin? Do you think STRC or MSTR would be in high demand if bitcoin was at 30k and they were actively selling?

Local_Math_5512

If BTC drops that low than MSTR reaches 5% ownership of all BTC sooner, stabilizing the price, and creating an even stronger bull case.

Affectionate-Bid386

Probably because in this illustration the USA dollar is sinking like the Titanic and your BTC held via MSTR is your "real asset", your lifeboat.

NurUrl

Short Selling MSTR

Mohkinstsis

Sure, this assumes they raise zero more capital (they plan to raise more) and also assumes there couldn’t be a brief drop in bitcoins value below 50% of its value due to panic or the market front running Saylor sales. Saylor has said that 30-40k bitcoin is reasonable if MSTR hadn’t been buying. Below 30k seems possible if he was an active seller and the whole market knew he was dumping. My point isn’t to say it’s likely that they’ll go bankrupt, I don’t think they will, but the idea that the only way MSTR would be at risk is for a decade of down years isn’t really true. The risk would come much sooner because markets are forward looking. Imagine 5 years in the market has seen the sale of 350k bitcoin and they know Saylor has another 350k and he’s been fixing the market down those whole 5 years. You don’t see a world where the market temporarily drops, knowing Saylor is selling and then starts to rise again as Saylor gets closer to liquidation?

dataCollector42069

As someone who bought MSTR puts at $153, this is beautiful 🤌

_DaBau5_

and MSTR’s sell price was also 10k higher than the current price lmao

Oakenkai

Except they have about a year's worth of dividend in cash reserves so they don't have to sell or ATM anything for awhile. They didn't sell 32 btc because they had to, they sold it because the S&P committee gave them a checklist of what they need to see to consider MSTR into S&P 500 inclusion. One of those was to rely less on debt, which is why they bought back some of their convertible debt last month. The other was that they needed to see the 850,000 bitcoin as a productive asset. The whole "never sell" thing hurts them in the S&P committee's eyes because then the 850,000 bitcoin is effectively dead weight that can't be considered a part of their balance sheet. They sold some to prove that their model is flexible and they can sell bitcoin when needed. He said in an interview the plan is to sell bitcoin during bull runs to capture capital gains and add to their cash reserves. Everyone seems to think Strategy sold 32 BTC because they had to and were strapped for cash, but that's not why. It was a signal to show that the BTC on their balance sheet can be used productively when needed. Worst case scenario, a year from now bitcoin is still in a bear, they run out of cash and have to sell bitcoin to pay dividends, but let's say they sell 32 btc a month to cover dividends for a year in 2027-2028. That's only 396 bitcoin sold for the entire year. Far from cannabilizing their balance sheet. This also prove they can always pay the STRC dividends, so likely will continue to attract capital into STRC when people see how reliable their obligations are. You might think, but if they grow STRC then they have to pay even more dividends and sell even more bitcoin, well, the more shares of STRC that is bought, the more bitcoin they can accumulate through ATM. They will ATM STRC throughout that year and will be accumulating more bitcoin then they are selling. If bitcoin continues to be in a bear for years then sure, things could get rocky and is uncertain, no one said bitcoin was without risk and MSTR is a bet on bitcoin. So if bitcoin fails, then yeah Strategy deserves to fail, but this is r/bitcoin and I doubt many of us here really believe bitcoin will never be in bull again. With all the major banks and institutions releasing bitcoin products, why would bitcoin fail when Tradfi is now steering the ship?

Less-Information-256

The average buy price in the article you shared is almost $10k higher than the current price. If MSTR orchestrated this dip so their rich buddies could buy more at a cheaper price they should have been more coordinated.

_DaBau5_

did i not say i meant “them” as in [MSTR and their rich buddies](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/02/strive-adds-2-500-bitcoin-to-hit-19-000-btc-just-a-day-after-strategy-turns-seller)? STRC dipped under $100 in November and February too and that didn’t stop them from buying more a couple weeks ago. do you only think about the market in daily intervals?

HydraAkaCyrex

Extremely unlikely doesn’t mean it won’t happen. You are currently a year off where the usual low in the cycles are, and we are already down 50% from ATH. If MSTR sells anything at all, the price of btc will plummet, as you have just seen this week.

Less-Information-256

How does mstr buying 28k bitcoin for 80k each a few weeks ago mean they benefit from this dip? You said dumb money will sell on the fear so they can buy lower. What money are they going to buy lower with. I’ve already explained twice why they can’t use STRC or MSTR stock to buy it. It’s a really basic question.

Less-Information-256

I don’t know how you don’t understand the that they can’t use STRC because it’s dumped way below $100 and bitcoin is more expensive in terms of MSTR stock so they would get more bitcoin for their money before this dip. I thought I already explained this quite basic concept to you. So what money are they going to use please?

Dmarine999

Nobody in their right mind would buy newly issued MSTR right now.

fspodcast

so either continue selling bitcoin which will actively cannibalize the assets backing the company or dilute the MSTR and issue massive amounts of new MSTR common shares to raise cash and because MSTR is already crashing due to the Bitcoin downturn, diluting shareholders at these lower valuations destroys the stock's premium and severely punishes long-term equity holders.

_DaBau5_

i didnt mean MSTR specifically when i said “them” i more meant [MSTR and all their rich buddies](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/treasury-secretary-bessent-reveals-information-230000662.html)

Zestyclose-Class-998

The largest marginal buyer of BTC was MSTR and when the convert market dried up there was no fresh liquidity for salylor to pump BTC. That and inflationary macro with the Iran conflict is bad for BTC. Look at gold and how it’s performing. Those two factors will weigh on BTC until rates top out, Iran conflict is done and we enter the next cutting cycle. Welcome to my Ted talk.

Regret-Select

32 BTC could have been sold at the very top, and I still think it would be considered negative news. Guy wrote an entire book, and based MSTR, on buying and holding It's still profitable to short Bitcoin. I would feel more comfortable as a MSTR investor, if they just profited over accurately shorting. Is CEO not capable of calling when to long or short?

_DaBau5_

lol i’ve been in this market over a decade who u calling sweet summer child? last i heard MSTR’s liquidation price was like $12k

Blueskyminer

Or worse. All the BTC and MSTR holders on suicide watch.

No_Paper612

The issue is that MSTR is a bag-holder for Bitcoin, their Bitcoin is worth less than what they paid. They’re trying to issue a dividend despite not being profitable.

Phylaras

Yes on the first part, hopefully not in a meaningful way on the second. In the long run, yes, BTC needs to rise more than STRC premiums cost. Saylot's thesis is that fiat currencies are struggling and will lose considerable value going forward while BTC won't. That means BTC doesn't go up so much as USD goes down. Selling BTC has two branches. A. Strategic Selling: tax loss harvesting, bull run gain harvesting, potential other DAT acquisition, etc. B. MSTR has no money to service STRC. If they're at B, which they aren't at presently, then yes. It is very bad.

Local_Math_5512

BTC today $65K. Hypothetical 50% drop puts BTC at $32K. MSTR owns 843,706 BTC for a value of $55B. A hypothetical 50% drop puts the value at $27.5B. MSTR has a cash reserve of $900 Million. This USD reserve won't drop as it has no relation to bitcoin. They currently have issued $15.4 Billion in preferred equity spread between STRC, STRF, STRE, STRK, and STRD. For simplicity, assume an 11% yield across all Preferred even though STRD/ STRF issue at 10% yield and STRK issues at 8% yield. At 11%, MSTR owes an annual dividend payout of $1.7 Billion (rounding up). ($27.5 Billion BTC + $900 Million USD) - ($6.7 Billion debt + ($1.7 Billion preferred payouts \* 10 years)) leaves $4.7 Billion remaining after 10 years with BTC at 50% of today's value. This assumes zero reinvestment of dividends from preferred equity holders which likely won't even happen.

CryptoDeepDive

Oh sweet sweet summer child. MSTR going belly upwould be orders of magnitude worse than FTX collapse. It's not even close

Local_Math_5512

Basic Math would disagree. BTC today $65K. Hypothetical 50% drop puts BTC at $32K. MSTR owns 843,706 BTC for a value of $55B. A hypothetical 50% drop puts the value at $27.5B. MSTR has a cash reserve of $900 Million. This USD reserve won't drop as it has no relation to bitcoin. They currently $15.4 Billion in preferred spread between STRC, STRF, STRE, STRK, and STRD. For simplicity, assume an 11% yield across all Preferred even though STRD/ STRF issue at 10% yield and STRK issues at 8% yield. At 11%, MSTR owes an annual dividend payout of $1.7 Billion (rounding up). ($27.5 Billion BTC + $900 Million USD) - ($1.7 Billion \* 10 years of payouts) leaves $11.4 Billion remaining after 10 years. This assumes zero reinvestment of dividends from preferred equity holders which likely won't happen.

Mohkinstsis

This is only true if they can sell without moving the market significantly. When their 9(?) billion in debt comes due by 2031 (starting in 2028 I believe) and their ~1 billion/year of dividend obligations they have to pay. Right now they can only survive one year without suspending dividends or raising more capital or selling bitcoin. If bitcoin drops when they sell they can’t do that. If STRC is significantly below $100 they can’t raise that way without increasing the dividend which they didn’t do this month (and likely are scared of raising it much more.) Raising through MSTR doesn’t work because the NAV is too low for it to increase bitcoin per share. The “safe for a decade” only works because they have bitcoin that can sell. What we just learned is that thy can’t really sell the dollar amount that they own because when they try to sell the market falls. How do you think they can raise money to pay the dividend and debt obligations they have if bitcoin falls when they sell?

darienrude_dankstorm

So for MSTR to go up, BTC needs to go up while MSTR also needs to sell BTC to fund preferred stock dividends. sounds like a horrible business

nafnaf0

They issued $128M in new MSTR stock in the same 8-K filling, the $2.5M in BTC sold is nothing in comparison: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526249768/mstr-20260530.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526249768/mstr-20260530.htm)

AirStick24

MSTR selling had nothing to do with the value drop. People realize the ride ended and they have better investment choices. 

Kc_sp

Goal is to keep shorting MSTR until I have a few hundred thousand dollars

MACAUFATFAT

Quick go to fail MSTR ,im hunting to buy more btc and you are ruin already MSTR

MACAUFATFAT

I love to watching MSTR fail and i buy btc for more and own by myself,i not depend anyone ,this is crypto

smellyfingernail

Die MSTR Die

devCheckingIn

That's something specific to MSTR. The latest press release had it at 13.3% YTD: [https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-completes-1-5-billion-debt-repurchase-and-achieves-btc-yield-of-13-3-ytd-now-holds-843738-btc\_05-26-2026](https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-completes-1-5-billion-debt-repurchase-and-achieves-btc-yield-of-13-3-ytd-now-holds-843738-btc_05-26-2026)

Local_Math_5512

This kind of goes back to the original statement. BTC would have to go down 50% and stay down for a decade in order for MSTR to be at risk of not meeting it's STRC obligations. If BTC goes down and stays down for 5 years then MSTR will be stressed but it will still be able to match it's liabilities. If it goes down and stays down for 10 years than MSTR collapses. Therefore, the only question that matters with regards to MSTR is this: "Will BTC be worth more than it is today 10 years from now or not?". If the answer is yes than MSTR will be just fine. If no, then MSTR will collapse.

zenren1989

i assume you are heavily shorting MSTR stock as we speak? making a killing off shorting it right now?

Mohkinstsis

That only works if they have cash. If bitcoin is mooning and they can sell it without effecting the market that would work great but if bitcoin is mooning then STRC will likely be pegged at $100. In a scenario where people have so little faith in the company that a 11.5% dividend stock is discounted to $80 (meaning a 14% effective yield) then they aren’t going to be able to effectively ATM MSTR to buy STRC and selling bitcoin to buy STRC also adds to the downward spiral (less bitcoin to backup the outstanding STRC.)

Local_Math_5512

Preferred shares go both ways. You say that he needs to raise dividends in order to keep people buying STRC, but he also has the alternative of just buying back STRC if the value of the preferred drops low enough and the outlook of BTC isn't positive. If he sell's STRC at $100 but the market values STRC at $80 for example than MSTR could essentially buy back the STRC they had previously sold at $100 for a $20 discount while simultaneously reducing the liability around there BTC holdings.

Local_Math_5512

Exactly right. If BTC is under 40k for YEARS being the main point. If BTC is under 40k for a decade than MSTR is in trouble. If I personally thought BTC was going to stay under 40k for a decade than I would stay away from BTC, crypto, and everything in the entire industry. I don't. Investing involves risk. duh.

origami_bluebird

It's to test the waters, pay his drug dealer debts, and prepare for a MUCH larger sale coming with further bullshit justification of the strategy. Reminder this guy is a guy who has committed tax fraud and investment fraud, a proven white collar criminal, and he will defraud all you idiots again for giving him cash because the punishment will be a slap on the wrist compared to the $100 millions in FIAT dollars saylor has sold of his stock holdings. This is arguably the most disgraceful sub on reddit because it's like watching Enron style fraud in real time. If you aren't a bot or a terrible human, please sell your MSTR stock.

Week-Natural

We're catching up to the Microstrategy risk. BTC goes up and they dump, it goes down. BTC goes down and they need to dump. There's no winning in the size of MSTR

Phylaras

From the capital coming in for the STRC yield. Basically, that yield works as long as BTC, in the long run, makes more. MSTR holders are participating in a strategy that captures the spread between realized gain and the cost to service the yield. So, say STRC costs 11%, but BTC gains 51%, then MSTR captures a 40% spread. That's the rough idea (details do matter).

etaoin314

this is notable, not because it is unusual movement for bitcoin, but MSTR selling is defenitiely new and newsworthy. Its notable because it changes the contract with the investors from, you can trust us we will never sell, your money is safe with us....to we will sell whenever we want and screw your investment.

Phylaras

Agreed. I'd add that he even announced more than a month ago that they would sell. The goal is to deliver more BTC value, not never sell. They stated that a back then. Basically, their business model is simple. 1. STRC provides nice yields. 2. Capital comes in for the yields. 3. MSTR eventually nets more BTC with cash from 2. But he has to manage cashflow and tax efficiencies to get the best outcome at point 3.

No-Problem49

> it isn’t yet. Yes, I agree, eventually something will stop the lending. But also at the same time I think it can be pushed off longer then people realize with money printing and tech stock ai shell games. Furthermore we need to remember who we dealing with. The mask is off. Dawg trump would bail saylor out simply because his son has a MSTR 420 call. That’s how fucked we are. It might not be a banana republic yet: but put trumps power and wealth in between yours and watch how quickly he breaks the rules to steal from you.

liquid_at

good point. We could see an end of bitcoin where MSTR owns 100% of all bitcoin but no one cares to buy. Just because they had to buy to keep the books green.

soorr

If anything, it shows that Saylor has no exit. If he moves to sell at all, price drops. MSTR is cooked.

ClearSnakewood

NOT if they hold it on an exchange. People really need to get their coin OFF of these exchanges and ETF’s and Wallstreet paper products man… Including MSTR.

dripmaster6

I mean, the never sell slogan was just trendy. Eventually, MSTR will dump a whole load of BTC because taking profits, it's not like they're going to go 10+ years without selling a significant portion. This is why I was never a fan of MSTR holding so much of it.

mrxsdcuqr7x284k6

MSTR should have no premium now that a variety of Bitcoin ETFs exist. "Never Sell" was just red meat for the unsophisticated investor. It's a proxy for conviction. But MSTR is a corporation, and corporations don't have conviction. They have fiduciary duty. MSTR has a fairly straightforward, er, strategy. Buy a bunch of bitcoin. Grow big enough to get included in the S&P 500. Get included in all the enormous S&P 500 ETFs. Now index fund investors who have no interest in bitcoin are investing in bitcoin without even realizing it. Bitcoin goes up. Saylor get a huge bonus and everyone loves him. Problem is, S&P 500 prefers companies that are actually doing something other than hoarding an asset. So, despite being larger than many other businesses currently in the S&P 500, MSTR has been considered and rejected several times already. I expect Saylor sees the writing on the wall and wants to get the investing public used to the idea that they will need to sell some bitcoin in the future and are getting people used to the idea now. Of course he will never say that in public.

No-Problem49

Under normal circumstances I’d agree a bailout is absurd. But I don’t put anything past Donald Trump. The right person bribes him and that’s all it takes. Or maybe it is just Trump himself. Let’s say his son is heavy into MSTR. Trump would sell out the entire country because his son bought 0dte calls on MSTR at the wrong time

nomeutenten

You don’t understand how liquidity works. If MSTR goes down we go below last bear cycle bottom

iisgambit

You think revenue stays constant if the demand for their product or services go down? Stocks are (mostly) priced on their forward earnings. NVDA is going to take a dump the moment they announce they won't hit their sales target or the demand shows sign of weakening. Stock dividends are also coming out of profits which are tied to sales/earnings. Blockbuster paid dividends but that didn't save it going to 0. Hell to give even better counter point, Adobe, CRM and other software stocks are doing great business and increasing year over year revenue and yet their stock are a dumpster fire. So a company's stock performing in correlation to its assets (aka MSTR) seems more fair to me. Sure MSTR goes to 0 if Bitcoin goes to $0 (assuming it even does) but so does any other company if their market/product goes down the drain. Blackberry was around 80 billion at its and now barely 5 billion even with revenue going strong.

NonVideBunt

Anyone still invested in MSTR deserves to go broke…

Coover117

Because Strategy sold BTC to pay STRC "dividends". Whether you hold STRC, MSTR, or BTC in any form ...the concern is that the engine is broken and it is a downward spiral.

baIIern

This isn't about 32 BTC; it's about a broken narrative. They started selling Bitcoin and the market is pricing in future dumps from MSTR... At some point this will become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Mohkinstsis

You’re only focused on the positive loop that happens if things are going well. The problem with the strategy is the loop can unwind in a really bad way. STRC is under $100. Saylor must raise dividend so he can raise capital. He raises dividend which increases dividends payments on all ~$10 billion outstanding STRC shares. Saylor must raise more capital to be able to pay that increased dividends (plus the dividend on the newly issued STRC), to do so he must sell larger amounts of STRC. STRC becomes less desirable because the more of it sold the lower the amount of bitcoin backing each share of STRC is (because they had like 400k bitcoin just from selling MSTR before the debt and dividend preferred shares started, that 400k stack is distributed among more and more shares of STRC.) He must continue to raise the dividend to keep it pegged at $100. None of this is an issue if bitcoin increases in value fast enough because he can just stop selling STRC and wait for bitcoin gains to make the preferred stock look less risky. The problem is if Saylor’s buys are significantly pumping the price of bitcoin (Saylor said he thinks bitcoin would be 30-40k without MSTR) then he doesn’t have the option to stop purchasing bitcoin so he has to keep selling STRC to make that happen.

MelangeBot

When the MSTR dead spiral starts, it's going to be 3 years of lower and lower lows followed by the occasional bart to liquidate shorters and we will probablly even see a flashcrash to under a 1000 dollars at some point. Yeah yeah go ahead and call me insane but this is crypto. it IS possible.

AnonThrowaway998877

Which is really baffling because he had to know this would be the reaction. Why invest billions upon billions at higher prices and then do this? Why not sell months ago, trigger this fear, then deploy your billions? I admit I haven't been keeping up on all of MSTR shenanigans, so maybe I'm missing something. Are they allowed to have a massively leveraged short on BTC?

JeremyLinForever

Dog water post. MSTR buys thousands of BTC at a time and sold 32 bitcoins out of their close to 900,000 BTC stash. I’m astonished that people don’t see how much of a non-issue it is.

Personal-Ebb-4717

ONE problem with your theory. MSTR buying BC hasn't caused BC price to go higher in any meaning way since 2025. The only thing happening is MSTR become exit liquidity for the early BC whales and probably N korean hackers.

AfterC

Issue new shares to MSTR to pay STRC dividends Issue new shares of STRC to buy assets for MSTR Oops, I need more cash! Sell assets from MSTR to pay dividends for STRC. *** This is the genius plan from little Kermit Saylor. In a perfectly executed, ideal environment, the best MSTR can now do is give you a return that tracks BTC. In a realistic environment, management missteps will cost you more. This is why MSTR is 70% off their high and BTC is only 46% off the high.

circadiggmigration

Bitcoin didn't even rise in value organically last time. Saylor cooked up MSTR to prop it up. Now MSTR has to sell (not literally, but for all intents and purposes). Without Saylor, it would have crashed forever last time. Please be careful with your money. You could be buying qqq or dram right now.

Initial-External-709

EMJX value going up, While MSTR value going down Because the AI system of EMJX shorted Bitcoin last week when it was $78.000 EMJX will go to public these days via reverse merge with SRXH and it has a huge upside potential so get onboard while you can for at least 50X The CEO Eric Jackson's target is 1000X My selling target is minimum $5+ For to learn more please visit subreddit group EMJX The stock to buy is SRXH

Initial-External-709

EMJX value going up, While MSTR value going down Because the AI system of EMJX shorted Bitcoin last week when it was $78.000 EMJX will go to public these days via reverse merge with SRXH and it has a huge upside potential so get onboard while you can for at least 50X The CEO Eric Jackson's target is 1000X My selling target is minimum $5+ For to learn more please visit subreddit group EMJX The stock to buy is SRXH

Initial-External-709

EMJX value going up, While MSTR value going down Because the AI system of EMJX shorted Bitcoin last week when it was $78.000 EMJX will go to public these days via reverse merge with SRXH and it has a huge upside potential so get onboard while you can for at least 50X The CEO Eric Jackson's target is 1000X My selling target is minimum $5+ For to learn more please visit subreddit group EMJX The stock to buy is SRXH