MSTR

No-Problem49

Could be anyone. Whales are left in a prisoners dilemma sort of scenario with MSTR where they have to front run any one else attempting to sell before MSTR pain points. One of the ways to solve that prisoners dilemma is to just crash the price and short MSTR yourself before someone else does it.

Moist-Fruit-693

> Where’s everyone landing — capitulation flush, or the start of something worse? And is the SOL flow divergence signal or noise? Technical analysis has rotted your brain. More people are selling than are buying, a big reason might be worries about MSTR beginning to shit the bed.

harvested

No clue about the short term, but all the tourists are gone. Providing MSTR doesn't need to puke up coins, we should have a good base here. Long term bullish.

Local_Math_5512

The Dude still owns $15 Million of MSTR shares.

AutoModerator

Post is by: Fit_Equal6932 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1tz1f7g/what_do_you_think_mstr_filings_will_show_come/ They need to pad up their USD Reserve fast. The only have 6.3 months worth of dividends payments left before they need to liquidate BTC Per their 10-Q: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000031/mstr-20260331.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000105044626000031/mstr-20260331.htm) "Further, for any additional shares of STRC Stock that we issue under the ATM of STRC Stock, our current intention (which is subject to change in our sole and absolute discretion) is to issue **any such shares of STRC Stock at a price per share not less than $99 or more than $101**. **However, we may issue any additional shares of STRC Stock at any price we choose.**" |**Date / Security**|**Shares Sold**|**Notional Value (in millions) (1)**|**Net Proceeds (in millions) (2)**|**Available for Issuance and Sale (in millions)**| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**April 26** *MSTR Class A Common Stock*|1,451,601|$-|$255.0|$26,474.5| |**May 3** *MSTR Class A Common Stock*|492,210|$-|$82.0|$26,392.4| |**May 10** *MSTR Class A Common Stock*|231,324|$-|$42.9|$26,349.4| |**May 17** *MSTR Class A Common Stock*|430,344|$-|$83.7|$26,265.7| They can always issue more MSTR which they have been. Last month's totals were: And last week: "On May 26, 2026, Strategy Inc ("Strategy") announced that, during the period between May 18, 2026 and May 25, 2026, **Strategy did not sell any shares under its at-the-market offering program and did not purchase any bitcoin. "** What do you think they did? ATM for stock and the USD reserve looks better now? Bought a few bitcoin to project strength? Would this project enough strength to kick the can down the road and everything calms down or is it irretrievable? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Miamiconnectionexo

The thing that trips people up is reading insider transactions on MSTR like normal companies. Pull the Form 4 yourself on the SEC EDGAR site instead of the headline. It almost always shows a matching option exercise on the same date, which is the tell that it is mechanical, not conviction-based selling. If you ever see him dumping shares with no corresponding exercise, that is the day to actually pay attention.

Fit_Equal6932

This is completely plausible as long as Saylor is around. We can talk when he has nothing to do with all this with his MSTR nonsense.

ProceduralTaco

If MSTR can’t pay the dividends on preferred stock STRC then MSTR would be worth 0. That is how cap tables work. The fact that STRC is discounted at an effective 12% dividend implies people have low confidence. High confidence would be 4-5% dividend and trade at par. You don’t offer a big dividend to be cool. I don’t think MSTR will go to zero either. It’s an unsophisticated pov to think the choice are between bankruptcy and the moon. It could just go down a bit more.

Fit_Equal6932

Not just the CEO, the whole posse: |Form & File|Filed ↓|Reporting for|Filing entity/person| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |[144 (Sale of securities)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000195917326004394/xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml)|2026-06-05||Strategy Inc (MSTR, STRC, STRD, STRF, STRK)Kang Andrew| |[144 (Sale of securities)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000195917326004392/xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml)|2026-06-05||Strategy Inc (MSTR, STRC, STRD, STRF, STRK)Le Phong| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1825170/000182517026000006/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-05|2026-06-03|Kang AndrewStrategy Inc| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1651669/000165166926000005/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-05|2026-06-03|Le PhongStrategy Inc| |[DEFA14A (Proxy materials)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526257683/mstr-20260604.htm)|2026-06-04||Strategy Inc (MSTR, STRC, STRD, STRF, STRK)| |[DEFA14A (Proxy materials)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526255709/mstr-20260603.htm)|2026-06-03||Strategy Inc (MSTR, STRC, STRD, STRF, STRK)| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1624877/000162487726000009/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-02|2026-05-31|BROOKS BRIAN PStrategy Inc| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466505/000146650526000002/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-02|2026-05-31|WINIARSKI GREGGStrategy Inc| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341187/000134118726000002/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-02|2026-05-31|Dietze Jane AStrategy Inc| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1309191/000130919126000024/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-02|2026-05-31|Patten Jarrod MStrategy Inc| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1282917/000128291726000002/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-02|2026-05-31|GRAHAM STEPHEN XStrategy Inc| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1203479/000120347926000002/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-02|2026-05-31|RICKERTSEN CARL JStrategy Inc| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380193/000119312526253980/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-02|2026-05-31|Briger Peter L JRStrategy Inc| |[DEFA14A (Proxy materials)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526253781/mstr-20260602.htm)|2026-06-02||Strategy Inc (MSTR, STRC, STRD, STRF, STRK)| |[4 (Insider trading report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1309191/000130919126000022/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)|2026-06-01|2026-05-28|Patten Jarrod MStrategy Inc|

dataCollector42069

I paid off my $40k in student loans from shorting MSTR 🤌

Large-Cow9765

Thats what all CEO's do. Nothing special about MSTR here.

LargeSnorlax

Its a wsb poster that's been spamming here for days, lost their shirt on MSTR, this is their cope message

ScholarPrize1335

Nice. Hopefully we both do well and MSTR fails while BTC doesn't.

jumpijehosaphat

sayonara MSTR

CriticalCobraz

I can smell a huge Bitcoin buy order from MSTR in the near future

Ch3v4l13r

Would be really funny if MSTR says they are buying in again at more than they sold off.

DarkDankDents

Most of your facts dont address the issue. MSTR has enough cash for 6 months of dividend payments, less now with STRC rising. For the market to be in good condition going forward, he would ideally have over $2b in cash reserves, which is 1.4b in sales. Saylor has no good options here. Tap the ATM equity, brings MNAV much lower. Sell BTC, continue to crash the market AND realize losses. The only potential positive here is if Saylor sold over 1.4b BTC during the week. Otherwise, it's obvious STRC will continue to decline, AND Saylor will continue to burn his cash on dividend payments until he runs out. At which point, MSTR will just be a custodian company, chained to the ground, unable to do anything.

Certain_Piglet7635

Hey. Listen to me carefully- You are 100% right. The risk of MSTR are huge, and dont let all the “smart” people here to “explain” you why you are not or they are smarter than you. Iv been 30yrs in the market- and can tell 100% that this MSTR ponzi scam will go to zero. If not tomorrow, so in 2 yrs. If not in 2 yrs so in 5/10. Stay away from this.

Whole_Historian_7185

The claim is was some sort of test or market inoculation was absolute, total nonsense! Sayer may be a smart man, but he is not as smart as he thinks. His rhetoric can only go so far. These are perilous time for holders of MSTR and STRC.

Calm_Situation_1131

The rise of BTC to $120k was a fluke due to Strategy buying massive amounts of BTC by abusing index inclusion rules to print shares and force passive index funds to buy them. Now that the rules have changed, this isn't possible anymore. In fact, MSTR might get bumped out of the MSCI global index by EOY, which would cause forced selling of MSTR. Every run up in the past was overvalued based on memes and hype. Considering useful crypto (ETH) has run up from ~$0.50 to $1500 in about a decade, I'd say that's more than appropriately priced.

bdjc_ink

Putting a good % of my retirement account into MSTR, going to try to time the bottom, say 50% of what I want in at btc 55k another 50% @ 50%

Outrageous_Sample901

What makes you think $59k isn’t the local bottom? This was all a severe overreaction to MSTR selling a few

Valuable_Paper_6231

You make some great points. AI has all the hype attention at the moment plus MSTR may be forced to sell some of its bitcoins again to meet the crazy high dividends they pay. Other whales may redirect their funds to upcoming mega IPOs: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic.

Phylaras

This post has inaccurate information. MSTR has ~$2.25b in cash and a ~$120m monthly burn. That is ~18 months of burn.

iisgambit

This is how I know most people still don't know what Strategy is or does and their financial position. There's nothing to force him to liquidate his position ffs. He has like \~8 billion in debt and 50 billion in bitcoin. That debt is not margin debt. Can't margin call him or force him to sell. Every bear market he have the same convo - omg MSTR will fail along with the usual omg btc is going to zero. Every freaking time. And in bull market, everyone is trying to jump in last minute to catch the rocket up. Just chill and relax. Especially if you're not a MSTR shareholder. This bear market will be over eventually and no one will be saying Saylor/MSTR will fail. Until the next bear market and round and round we go.

AJSE2020

Past performance is not indictor for future results The the price could end up to 30k … Just immgine MSTR getting squeezed FTX collapse and luna collapsing Would look like a joke in comparison

XBullsOnParadeX

No I think they mean everything. Look at bitcoin. Look at MSTR and them selling BTC. Why would they only mean alt coins?

CryptoAnarchyst

Kinda sad... really... I feel sorry for you... Who hurt you man? Tell me you buy MSTR at $400? $500? Is that why you're bitter?

CryptoAnarchyst

You are a living proof why I don't argue with idiots... they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience... Pleas tell me where I say I have a PhD? Please. Also, as an educated person I am able to look at DATA, which you seem not to know a fucking thing about. My ability to read the market has made me a millionaire, and the fact I saw crypto as an opportunity in 2016 should tell you that I can read the markets... unlike you who probably got burned by crypto because you believed in the hype, you bought MSTR at $400 and now are sitting on losses... which I hope you haven't sold, because the rotation of liquidity is going to be epic. You lack the ability to not only read the markets, but understand them... please leave it there, let's see where it goes.

Eximietate

I’ve been following the cycle for 7 years and I don’t care if there are diminishing returns or BTC is dying. All I care is that it has been predictable, so far. And due to predictability I can make leveraged gains on BTC proxies, in particular, MSTR.

boofles1

This is the issue, not selling 23 bitcoin. Saylor retired a bunch of debt and now they only have a few months of dividends, MSTR are clearly going to sell a ton of bitcoin so why wait for them to dump. It's a crazy situation but here we are. I think it will bring a lot of other things down with it, lots of debt floating around our there.

nafnaf0

Yes, long term it should rely on selling some bitcoin if new sales and the MSTR stock itself can't take carry the full burden of the dividend liabilities. The idea is you are trading upside in BTC for steady 11.5% dividends. Strategy buys bitcoin with your money and then uses the general upside return on BTC to fund dividend payments. I believe Michael Saylor said in a presentation earlier this year that they modeled many scenarios I think around a 20% ARR BTC bear case through 2030 was the worst case scenario and they would still be fine and then some. STRC is current trading for around $92, so now should be a great time to get in, unless you think the whole thing will collapse.

Fit_Equal6932

So you are telling me that STRC -> MSTR -> Crypto Contagion -> Financial system is not plausible.

ThomasHobbesIV

MSTR is going to zero. The convertible debt can't be paid back. BTC is going lower. I'll see you guys in 18 months.

Fit_Equal6932

Yep MSTR is sitting in the biggest unrealized loss in history. He sure has a nice mansion and a yacht. A squeaky voice and glib talking can get you a long way.

Fit_Equal6932

He could have just kept running MSTR the way it always was, trade at a premium you sell more stock buy more bitcoin No one is going to ask you any questions all on autopilot. But then god complex takes over and you come up with kookie financial engineering ideas that land you in a pickle. I seriously see no way out of this.

thetimsterr

They can't ATM STRC while it is below par. That would push it even lower. I agree they can ATM MSTR for a little while longer, since mNAV is around 1.20. That's one saving solution. I disagree they can sell BTC in this environment. If they start selling $140M worth of bitcoin at these levels, that's going to be thousands of BTC per month. We just saw what 32 bitcoin did...imagine if they sold 3,000. It could cause a death spiral. I do hope they are working on some form of additional convertible debt that goes out 4 years from now. I otherwise cannot fathom how this sustains itself in a bear market, and it really bugs me that they used half their reserves to buy back debt that didn't need to be bought back.

habbadee

He disclosed in 2020 when MSTR first bought Bitcoin that he personally owned 16,000. No doubt he's bought lots more for himself in the 6 years since.

Dmoan

When coffeezilla went on another podcast for MSTR supporters he was attacked and the host claims It’s safe 🤡

FnAardvark

Leveraged ETFs will not 2x your gains on the way back up because of volatility drag. The more volitile the asset, the more drag. As a matter of fact, if you buy and hold a leveraged ETF, you can make less than just buying and holding bitcoin. Leveraged ETFs are for short term directional bets. If I wanted to make a leveraged BTC play (which I don't) I'd buy ASST or MSTR. ASST being further out on the risk curve and higher upside potential.

ProceduralTaco

People that tried after MSTR didn’t get traction. It will be like SPACs, as long as people remember it failed you won’t convince people to do it again. If it fails.

Fit_Equal6932

Remember the chain STRC->MSTR. MSTR has 55 billion or so and they hold 5% of bitcoin and a lot more if you consider only the float. Any sales from them will have a huge price impact and also imagine the signaling aspect of it. From there you go into leveraged assets, ETFs, 401k etc. Strive is using STRC dividends to further payout their SATA dividends etc.

HamEggandDips

MSTR is just a (centralised) altcoin and its amusing seeing BTC maxis deny this

UrbanGrower187

I think this argument is overstating the STRC risk and turning a real financing concern into a collapse narrative. Yes, STRC is a variable-rate preferred share designed around a $100 stated amount. Yes, the dividend rate can move higher if the market price trades below target. And yes, Strategy recently sold a very small amount of Bitcoin to help fund preferred distributions. That part is fair. But the conclusion that this automatically creates a death spiral is missing scale, balance-sheet context, and financing flexibility. First, the Bitcoin sale being discussed was tiny relative to Strategy’s overall holdings. Selling 32 BTC is not the same as Strategy “dumping Bitcoin.” It is a rounding error compared with a treasury holding of hundreds of thousands of BTC. A sale that small does not meaningfully move the global Bitcoin market by itself. Second, STRC dividends are not some surprise liability. The entire instrument was designed as preferred equity with cash distributions, and Strategy disclosed from the start that dividends are paid when declared by the board and only from legally available funds. The dividend mechanism is not an uncontrolled automatic trap; it is a capital-markets tool Strategy can manage. Third, Strategy is not forced to fund every dividend by selling BTC. They can use cash reserves, operating cash, common equity issuance, preferred issuance, debt markets, or selective treasury management. The bearish post assumes only one funding source exists: selling Bitcoin. That is simply not true. Fourth, even if the STRC dividend rises from 11.5% to 12.5% or 13%, that is a higher financing cost, not an automatic insolvency event. It may reduce efficiency. It may make future STRC issuance less attractive. It may slow BTC accumulation. Those are valid risks. But “higher cost of capital” is not the same thing as “MSTR collapse.” Fifth, for this to become a true negative feedback loop, multiple things would need to happen at once: Bitcoin would need to remain weak for an extended period, MSTR’s equity premium would need to compress severely, capital markets would need to close, STRC would need to stay deeply below target, and Strategy would need to have no better funding option than repeatedly selling BTC. That is possible in an extreme bear case, but it is not the base case. The more balanced view is this: STRC is a real risk factor because it increases fixed cash obligations and can become expensive if market conditions deteriorate. But the idea that a small BTC sale and a higher preferred dividend automatically lead to forced Bitcoin dumping and corporate collapse is exaggerated. A fair criticism would be: “STRC could become a drag on Strategy’s ability to accumulate Bitcoin if financing costs keep rising.” An unfair criticism is: “STRC guarantees a death spiral.” Those are very different claims

MechRxn

You are all delusional. If MSTR fails there will be further ramifications and net negatives for this space.

Fit_Equal6932

I mean we are in the same camp. No point arguing over semantics. I just meant black swan because if STRC goes and then MSTR goes it will lead to really bad unwinding in crypto. This will definitely spread to regular financial sector since everybody's grandma's 401k holds crypto now. Financial systems are intricately linked with unknown layers of leverage. It doesn't take much to trigger systemic stuff. You can compare the scale of all this to the Silicon Valley Bank situation.

ch_raposo

Personally I don't like MSTR. Only BTC for me. But good luck!

No-Problem49

MSTR investors in 1999: “look at mstr financial report they filed with the sec the numbers support a bull thesis and they can’t be wrong”. MSTR investors who followed saylors 1999 financial report in 2013 : “hey guys only 13 more years and a whole new fraud before we break even☠️😂☠️”

stefansilva_xrp

MSTR caused this sell of 0% they didnt do anything if you blame them for this then u have to blame them for october dump and february dump. sell off is because of the IPOs and bear market

aznpridesu

Saylor needs to print like $1 trillion worth of MSTR shares to buy the whole 20m coins. He has to sacrifice it for the great good. lol

LatvianMafia

I don’t think Bitcoin would then go to zero. Unless Tether also colapses and Satoshi’s wallet gets activated. If MSTR would get liquidated, so there would be a massive Bitcoin fire sale, but the coin itself would just keep existing. And there are too many Bitcoin fanatics that would buy it all up at some price point, so it would crash like crazy but it would eventually find the floor (10k, 1k, 100 usd?).

No-Problem49

>do the opposite You should buy bitcoin and MSTR. 😂🤣😂

HSuke

Well not literally leveraged. But Saylor has said multiple times that MSTR is a "leveraged" play on BTC.

thistimelineisweird

It sounds like you should probably short BTC and MSTR then.  I am going to stick to the golden rule of doing the opposite of what everyone says on Reddit, so... whatever.

ObviousTotal9069

Have we ever had a Saylor Type situation? I'm still pro-BTC long-term, but I feel like MSTR slowly unfolding could cause a cycle to continue beyond expectations.

MustacheSwagBag

Leveraging BTC with their stock products = They're taking out loans against their holdings of BTC Stock Dilutions = They're diluting the value of their stock to pull in more $$ to buy more bitcoin in the short-term If people do not continue buying bitcoin, it creates downward pressure on the price because MSTR holds so much BTC and will eventually have to sell if they continue to take loans out against their holdings and manipulate their stock to buy more (they use risky methods to gain temporary increases in holdings, which can cause a small bubble). They are one of the largest holders of BTC and if they were to sell all of their holdings it would cause a massive downward swing on the price. The thing I don't think he is looking at is the timing of their loans and defaulting on said loans. People are scared right now because MSTR did just sell 32 bitcoin (small for them) to pay off a debt, and they've said for a long time they won't sell...but they just did. So that means they were backed into a corner on paying the 1.8M or w/e the value of 32 btc was, or it just didn't make sense for them to find another way to pay that debt. Selling 32 btc was the best option financially. Finally, he's saying that they could short BTC and then sell all of their holdings to profit off of the price going down as they sell it. Because they have such a massive portion of bitcoin they can manipulate the price and make money off of the manipulation, when they want to. I would think this would be considered insider trading, though. Not sure. All of these things lead to downward pressure on the price of BTC...if they continue to do so without a return. However, if MSTR continues to buy BTC and accumulate as much as possible, none of it matters.

darienrude_dankstorm

What you're saying is the equivalent to paying off your credit card with another credit card. Which in a vacuum and in a falling interest rate environment can be fine, but in MSTR's case they clearly have no big lenders willing to help them out considering the need to sell STRC at a slight discount to par and at an almost 12% dividend rate. They already were basically doing what you suggested (a ponzi), and it stopped working, hence the situation we're in. Idk how you reconcile "oh gee I don't know anything" with confidently correcting someone who has followed the situation closely.

No-Problem49

All I’m saying is that acting like the floor is 30,40,50k is insane because people will want to front run MSTR collapse. The closer it gets to 30k the greater the pain, and it could trigger an exponential collapse where more and more coins are needed to be sold to pay for strc and saylors loans. And that doesn’t even account for saylor committing fraud again, which I totally believe he would because he got basically no punishment last time. If I was a bank and I knew there was a pain point for MSTR around 30k , I’d for sure begin selling around 50k to avoid Saylor fucking me. Furthermore; someone may have a financial motive to have MSTR collapse. Imagine you have a large holding of bitcoin you got cheap and you want to unwind quickly and you are worried about crashing the price. One way to cut the downside of unloading it all and make a fuck ton of money would be to place a leveraged short on MSTR and sell your bitcoin holdings knowing you’d crash the price. You get out of a falling asset and make a ton of money. People sense blood in the waters ; people sense MSTR is shaky and that bitcoin is shaky. Some where, there is a Michael burry type short seller who smells blood who is smarter then you or I who will figure out a way to tip the scale.

etaoin314

I certainly would not mind it; but if mister fails the price craters for the forseeable future. everyone with skin in the game will be in a difficult position. Without a big kahuma like MSTR buying the tops regularly the price could stay depressed in perpetuity. That said, it would allow the market to grow organically.

No-Problem49

If MSTR goes to zero bitcoin goes to zero. Last time Saylor committed fraud and people tried to catch the falling knife on MSTR when it dropped 70% in hours in reaction to saylors fraud, it took them over 20 years and a new fraud to break even. If Saylor committing fraud again and something happens where he is forced to sell a lot at once; bitcoin going to zero and this time it’s gonna remain in the dust.

No-Problem49

Dawg if it hits 20k bitcoin is hitting zero based on MSTR and strc. What happens when people find out Saylor did the same thing he did in dotcom bubble and falsified records robbing Peter to pay Paul. Last time Saylor committed fraud in 2000, MSTR dropped 70% instantly like within hours. What effect on bitcoin would that have if the exact same thing happened? Hint it’s going to zero. Buying at 20k and catching such a falling knife would be an insane move

ClearSnakewood

And people here ignorantly talking about buying IBIT and MSTR 🤦‍♂️ F tradFi and all their horsemen

God_Hand_9764

Feeling that on MSTR right now. And I fucking had the opportunity for a perfect breakeven a few weeks ago and slept on it. Shit!

darienrude_dankstorm

MSTR is almost certainly doomed but people's reading on the situation is wild lol

PM_ME_YOUR_SENDINGS

I reckon MSTR takes the fall first given they are leveraged to the teeth on Bitcoin, whereas BMNR at least has the staking income to cushion the blow.

LargeSnorlax

Already saw people calling out $8k Bitcoin targets yesterday We've got a steady bunch of wsb posters who've never posted here before trolling so they must've gotten their butts punctured by MSTR

Certain-Cucumber3447

I have begun DCAing into MSTR. Will start getting more aggressive once it reaches sub $100. This is good for me!

Real-Technician831

Not got started with fool’s errand in the first place. The point is MSTR is at loss on their Bitcoin holdings, so they made loss with that trade. That is very significant.

Kitchen_Catch3183

STRC has completely lost its peg and MSTR is cratering. You know what that means right? It means he’s going to sell more, very soon.

Real-Technician831

The point is that MSTR is on loss at Bitcoin on tune of 10 billion

No_Pen8240

So where does that leave $MSTR --- Due to there current holdings being so large -- They really can't sell as that will collapse the value of their remaining bitcoin. So in order to salvage $MSTR we need a TON of hype and speculation short term to drive the price up. Long term we need bitcoin to replace fiat currency as a routinely used currency that has lower fees and more simplicity than credit cards. Chance of success: <5% in my opinion. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

No_Pen8240

Sadly, $MSTR is stuck in a bad position, they have > $10 Billion in unrealized losses. . . and if they try to sell their current bitcoin --> The price of bitcoin will collapse causing even higher losses. With no option to exit their position without incurring even greater losses (likely greater than $20 Billion if sold this month); the option to sell doesn't really exist! so $MSTR is forced to continue down the current road hoping that Bitcoin will recover. So the question, what can improve the price of bitcoin \#1) It can be used as a currency -- While rare, the use of bitcoin as an actual currency provides long term value through it's use as a medium of exchange. Sadly $MSTR is just a buy and hold company and will not pursue this route. \#2) Hype and Advertisements -- Proven effective in the past -- Celebrity endorsements has always increased value. This is short term and transitory value. \#3) Speculation -- Just like Tulip Bulb mania -- Get people to buy into the asset thinking it will just go up in value. <--- This has been $MSTR strategy the whole time. Sadly buying an asset and sitting on it hoping it goes up in value is known as the greater fool theory. \#4) Intrinsic value -- Unlike silver and gold, bitcoin has no intrinsic value.

No_Pen8240

Strategy and Michael Saylor are a ticking time bomb and will crash Bitcoin -- At the end of the day. . . Bitcoin needs to grow by about 10% annually for Strategy to make money \~equal to the stock market <---- Anything above this is "amplified bitcoin" 0% annual growth -- STRC will make money while common stock slowly collapses over 4-5 years . . . Then both will collapse 10% decline -- STRC will make money while common stock collapses over 2 years . . . Then both will collapse 20% decline -- STRC will make money as common stock collapses over 9-18 months . . . Then both will collapse 30% decline -- 9-12 months til both collapse So on and so forth. For MSTR (and STRC) to make money long term, Bitcoin needs to average 10% annual growth. You can't financially engineer profits when you hold an asset with 0% growth but still have to pay interest on loans + dividends on preferred stocks (Which is very similar to interest on loans)

ahhhaccountname

The thing that is bothering me RN is that the recent bullrun has just about everything you can ask for. Many huge new ETFs, countries investing, MSTR pumping the FUCK out of it, trump boosting it, etc... and it only made it to like 1.82x ATH. Trump says "dell" and it is like 3.7x It just feels a bit irritating. When btc was 126k I had posts complaining about how micro the bullrun felt. I wanted to see at least 300k to feel satisfied but it barely went up with all the macro events at play. In the end, Ill continue to hodl

Original-Read-6475

MSTR average purchase price in 2022 was about $33K per BTC while the coin was down to $16K and he was fine. He is not getting liquidated.

cyger

Usually there is a blow off top as well, and there was not. The combination of ETFs and MSTR may dampen the down sides. Maybe we will touch 50k, but I think there is very good chance ~60k is the bottom.

Real-Technician831

Pretty much yes, selling any is pretty much against anything MSTR claimed to be.

TheBestintheWest11

MSTR just revealed it's a ponzi scheme. This was a big eye opener for a lot of BTC investors. So pretty much everyone is pulling out and BTC is taking. a hot cause of it. It'll go up.Silk road crash was worse.

Important-Level6672

Institutions… it’s literally just MSTR Hoarding BTC. The other are just crypto miners who obviously hold their own coins and crypto exchanges for obvious reasons. Blackrock are just custodians for their customers that don’t want to set up a Binance account. There is 0 major or relevant institutions holding crypto for themselves apart from MSTR.

Ill-Sea291

if MSTR keep selling it'll be over

Flexerrr

If MSTR keeps selling, it’s definitely not the time to buy

Taraih

Everybody is panicking, MSTR thing going on, even unrelated subs starting to spread FUD, CRAMER saying its OVER. This is the time you buy, similar to 16-20k area last bear market

ozera202

Every cycle has one major news at the final leg down to drop it low as it can , FTX , Mount GOX , Covid and now MSTR who was the biggest shill for btc now selling . I’m buying these fears , I have cash on the side 😈

fspodcast

That would be nice but can it really overpower Black Rock and MSTR holders?

GreedVault

i think its a combination of factors, not just the 32 btc, with openai spacex and anthropic IPOs on the horizon, it feels like money is rotating out of MSTR into those instead.

willofscott

More FUD, get your facts straight man…MSTR didn’t sell In 2022 in the traditional sense, they sold 704 for tax loss and rebought 810 2 days later, that not selling. Keep it accurate. This 32 was just a display that it can if need be, and it won’t stop the world turning.

ProceduralTaco

What panic? STRC is selling at $95. That preferred stock paying an 11% dividend - really 12.5%at that price . If preferred stock doesn't trade at par, what do you think MSTR is worth? That's not panic, thats just pricing an asset at what it sells for.

ozera202

This like the ftx spook with MSTR selling perfect time to buy …. Every cycle had some major company causing a sell off. I’m buying more

willofscott

Kiyosaki disregard, Cuban disregard, The to use “dump” is to FUD In your own words… Saylor sold 32 BTC just to show he could, thats like 2.5 million dollars, like .00000001% of anything, they don’t need 2.5 million they have billions coming constantly. He sold 32 and turned around and buys 1000’s everytime, I believe days after he sold 32. It was to get that out of the way, it shows MSTR has more strength… being they can if need be - sell alittle to get through any difficult times, it’s actually really bullish. It protects the ones buying STRC which is the money flow for buying bitcoin. Anything which promotes STRC sales is bullish for BTC. Watch your accidental FUD, not needed. The other two guys, who cares about them, both just want to be in the lime light.

Ill-Sea291

If MSTR continues to sell, the whole market will be running for the exit

Rock_Strongo

If MSTR continues to sell it will become less and less impactful on price over time. The only reason it triggered a dip this time (if you believe that was a catalyst for this ~8% drop) is because it's their first time selling in a while. Certainly not because 32 BTC is enough to make any difference either direction.

Elean0rZ

Notwithstanding, in the context of blockchain tech there's a very specific technical distinction between "coins" and "tokens". Bitcoin is the former. Whatever one might think about BTC or Saylor, there's still no excuse for using an incorrect term when reporting on it, any more than it would be OK to describe MSTR as a bond.

Mooks79

That’s true, I’m so uninterested in the value of MSTR I defaulted to BTC. But you could take a similar date with the launch of public availability of MSTR shares (obviously adjusting the date and window accordingly).

HSuke

I'm not concerned with them going completely bankrupt to the point MSTR is worth $0. I'm concerned with a slow downward spiral that begins 1 week from now. STRC is down so much that we aren't going to see much ATM this month. What if there is no STRC ATM this month during the ex-div week? If there is no ATM, MSTR is going to take a huge hit. And then they'll need to sell either MSTR or BTC in 4 weeks, which will drop the price even more due to negative news. The cash reserves are far too small already. MSTR bulls have had ATM for so long that they've forgotten what it's like to have no revenue.

Resident-Primary6589

But we’re talking about the value of MSTR not Bitcoin right?

A1JX52rentner

This only works if you can show the actual forced-selling mechanism. “BTC goes down, therefore MSTR must dump its Bitcoin” is not enough. Where is the margin call? Where is the covenant? Where is the redemption right that forces them to sell? MSTR is not FTX or Celsius. There are no depositors withdrawing coins. Most of the financing is long-dated equity/convertible/preferred capital. A falling BTC price can make the equity ugly, sure, but “ugly” is not the same thing as “automatic bankruptcy”. The bear case needs more than “empty box” rhetoric. It needs to explain the specific path from BTC drawdown → forced liquidation → insolvency. Otherwise you’re just saying “I don’t like the structure.”

usa2a

On Strategy.com right now: * USD Months of Dividend Coverage: 6.3 * BTC Years of Dividend Coverage: 31.5 So wow, MSTR can cover their dividend obligations for 32 years! Except what happens when they start dipping into those "BTC Years" selling more BTC to pay obligations when the "USD Months" run out? The value of BTC drops. This means they have to sell a larger quantity of it to meet the same dollar amount obligations. That makes it drop more. It is a negative feedback loop as powerful as the positive feedback loop that got them to this point (buy more BTC -> price goes up -> share price rises -> sell more shares -> buy more BTC), except it can unwind at a rate that is out of their control. Anybody who thinks that would actually last "31.5" years is bonkers especially as we just saw them sell 32 BTC and immediately crash the price. Only 843,674 to go, liquidity should hold up great! Their great financial innovation is STRC, which they adjust the interest rate on to keep it pegged to $100. They can always back that up because of their bitcoin stockpile! You know what else worked a LOT like that? A little stablecoin/unstablecoin pairing called TerraUSD and Luna.

oakstreet2018

It’s really scary how it’s not obvious to everyone. I really like BTC but I don’t like MSTR. This business is a classic ponzi with the main downfall almost always being a loss of confidence which drys up the new funds going into it. Hedge funds actively target businesses that rely on raising new funds because a lack of confidence can easily send the business into a spiral. I currently don’t own any BTC. I want to buy but MSTR really worries me. It will be a monumental impact to BTC unfortunately.

Caspica

Because we're in a completely different interest situation and MSTR has taken on billions in debt.

raesene2

Isn't the challenge that, if they have to start selling BTC to pay dividends that acts as a depression on the price of BTC, causing a cycle of drops? Kind of the reverse of what happened on the way up, where their purchases pushed the price of BTC up, causing more money to come into MSTR as their positions looked more favourable.