MSTR

ztsmart

>What about if I own some precious metals, Then you are a fool!! >and some real estate Real estate is allowed if it is purchased with debt denominated in fiat (this helps bitcoin) and can improve your liquidity. >maybe a few stocks MSTR is allowed. Every other stock is garbage and you are a fool if you own any of them.

pingusuperfan

I would sell all but the MSTR and COIN and double down on those or invest in Coinbase bonds if your retirement account lets you trade bonds

cidec85226

I do the same thing. I have over 100k in retirement accounts. But I have no wear near that amount of liquid money elsewhere. So I too buy a lot of GBTC/MSTR.

poojoop

while I don’t necessarily think that their demise would actually *kill* the crypto market, the fall of either would have serious, long term ramifications. For MSTR - saylors liq price is around ~3k. After seeing ftx and alameda explode but struggle to bring btc sub 15k, 3k seems progressively more unlikely.

ty_rex

Clearly lol. It’s hard to get a good advice in other places though. Investing forums will just spew hate on crypto. R/Bitcoin mods removed my post. Agree with you on MSTR and GBTC, mostly concerned about the miners, especially BITF.

poojoop

OP - this isn’t the place to ask a question about stocks unfortunately. Most of these people don’t even understand the “retirement account” aspect of your post and are just wondering loudly why “you didn’t just buy Bitcoin???” That said, MSTR and GBTC are probably safe. Not sure about the miners, especially w next halving approaching - but Saylor’s liquidation price is like 3k and Greyscale is Greyscale lol. Those two should be fine.

A_BC12

> MSTR, GBTC, HUT, and BITF I'm genuinely....WATAFAK?

ty_rex

Yeah, agreed. It wasn’t meant to be a LT play. Meant to be ST and sell when we hit 100k, but that didn’t happen. Thinking about selling all of them so I can sleep at night and maybe allocate just a little to COIN or MSTR for exposure. Tough to get direct exposure to BTC In retirement accounts without doing a lot of work to go self directed.

ty_rex

Thanks! I’m thinking about selling and staying in COIN and MSTR. The rest seem to unreliable to make it through the bear market.

DoeyB

Honestly never even heard of MSTR, GBTC, HUT or BITF and ive been in crypto for years lol

cdnkevin

TL;DR MSTR will need to top up BTC collateral on loan at BTC price $13.644 USD. MSTR will need to find external funding to service loan at BTC price of $3561 USD or be liquidated “MSTR received advantageous fixed interest rates on its 2025 and 2027 convertible notes, …However, the 2025 Secured Term Loan from Silvergate with a floating interest rate has proved costly in a rising interest rate environment. On top of the unfavorable interest rate, the LTV ratio required to maintain the loan is locking up a considerable amount of its collateral.” “… the bigger worry lies in the company’s ability to service the interest on its outstanding debt. Prior to taking on over $2.37B of debt, Microstrategy was earning interest on its operations. However, they now see a net outflow of cash from the interest expense to service its debt.” “When looking at the operating income from its software business, we see a clear decline in profitability...The nearly $40M of interest expense paired with the declining income from operations is a cause for concern…However, the company maintains a cash and cash-equivalents balance of nearly $67M, providing MSTR with a buffer through 2023 in the event that its income from operations continues to tread water.” “…for the time being, Microstrategy poses no immediate risk to the Bitcoin market.”

KAX1107

Coinbase custody apparently has 10% of bitcoin supply. You can make the distinction from Coinbase exchange but still third party custodian. Institutions need to learn how to safely self custody with their own secure MPCs and multisig vaults. But in some cases like MSTR, there are some legal hurdles to self custody.

reddorical

Slightly different topic, but why didn’t Binance convert BNB to BTC or ETH during the bull market? BNB was approaching $1000 a coin, and if they had been slowly draining into the finite supply of BTC then BTC’s price would surely have pumped even more which would have brought all the others along with it. If huge CEX like Coinbase and Binance are holding millions of actual Bitcoin (not millions of $ worth) in reserve then the store of value proposition is further reinforced. They could also find a way to issue more BNB in future if they want to cash out more on a pump/dump play within their own ecosystem. If those with the greatest ability to do this sort of thing are not doing it, what does that say about BTC? Why do these exchanges not do what Saylor and MSTR are doing and denominate their balance sheet in BTC?

optiontraderkyle

Microstradgy is not generating enough cash flow to service its debt. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR/balance-sheet?p=MSTR

Tomato_Jumpy

FTX wasn't a black swan , even MSTR and grayscale failing at same time won't be a black swan, world war 3 won't even be a black swan, the only one i can come up with could be a longer than 24 hour solar storm that wipes out all electronic devices. (But BTC could potentially even survive this.....)

Keith_Kong

They can’t just buy more Bitcoin because they have to service their existing debt. They can only buy more by issuing more debt, but they can’t just infinitely do that. The reality is that their current liquidation is about 3.5k and there is nothing they can really do beyond that. They that hits, all their Bitcoin is liquidated since they have put it all up as collateral by that point. Time is the only thing on MSTR’s side at this point. They need to continue paying down the debt in order to lower their margin call, but that will take years to make a significant dent (using cash flows alone). Basically, the price has to just not dip that low. Period.

SpaceTabs

Isn't that what MSTR is doing now? "Selling stock to buy [30,400] Bitcoin"? Also it's probably not obvious that their stock is $167 and one year ago it was $663. So Bitcoin is 50% cheaper but their stock is 25% of its former price. After the tax evasion suit is resolved I wouldn't be surprised if there were other legal difficulties, the guy was openly telling people to claim residence in a state with no income tax like he is doing. Basically I think their only play is scarcity, but what about the $4 billion or so that the US govt has seized? That may be auctioned off in the near future.

yourmom_fat_as_hippo

I think they are segregating their investors. They are giving a constant message that they are going to buy BTC for a long term now. This makes anyone favourable of BTC to buy their share, and anyone critical of BTC to sell their share. It's a good strategy long term, considering most of your investors will have the same ideology as you do. Excellent. Bullish on $MSTR

dado3

He deleted it because it was wrong. Coinbase has 2 buckets of BTC: the BTC being held and traded on their exchange, and the BTC they are custodying on behalf of customers like BGTC and $MSTR. The number CZ quoted was the reported balance **on the exchange only** and was completely unrelated to the BTC being held in custodial accounts. He wasn't trying to warn retail: he was trying to take down a competitor with a false tweet. He knows the difference between exchange and custody accounts. So for all those people who think CZ is "one of the good ones," no. No he's not.

from_gondolin

i dont know about recommended, but i've been going for MSTR. No expense ratio, and I'm pessimistic the fund will ever be converted to an etf.

dashby1

In the US, in a Roth IRA, what would be the closest proxy to BTC outside of GBTC... MSTR is one... any others??

ArtyHobo

I'm not up to date on MSTR optics, but iirc it's about as close now as it's ever been to stock price prior to the 2020 pump. Looks like it's around 160 atm, but with the indexes set to fall a fair way yet before any sort of official recovery kicks in, I'd wager you could see 120-130 yet. At those kind of prices, there might be a fair bit of upside, assuming BTC hasn't capitulated further.

ArtyHobo

Saylor himself would say the smart man buys BTC and MSTR is an inferior asset

MichaelAischmann

How much leverage is in MSTR vs buying BTC straight?

Jd20001

Something was up with GBTC today, bitcoin was down, MSTR down, .iners down, even ETHE down 10% but GBTC was flat to down only 1%. I sold all this once the premium went negative and never looked back

sfgisz

I'm sure he's worked out some nice corporate structures where a good chunk of his personal wealth is safe even if MSTR-BTC fails. As long as he's not committing fraud like SBF he's safe enough.

Zigxy

Almost all of his net worth is tied to his personal holdings of BTC and to his ownership of MSTR. If BTC tanks further, he will be relatively poor (still probably hundreds of millions of dollars).

HighlySuccessful

It's not much different from Microstrategy, they buy Bitcoin and all you can do is trade shares of it. Except MSTR has business outside of Bitcoin and GBTC is just that, they buy Bitcoin and take 2% of it every year "for fees"

trojanattorney1

its premium/discount is just a reflection of demand/supply. Prior to MSTR and the flood of GBTC shares from pos accredited investors (bill gates was a big one) there was a lot of demand for bitcoin in a wrapper you can use in your IRA during its run up to 60k. After it popped and alternatives popped and the supply of GBTC shares exploded, the premium inverted into a discount. I tried to explain this to a client that asked to buy it (when it was at 35% premium) but it was like talking to a wall

Mas113m

The important thing is that Bitcoin allows for the option that is right for YOU. Buying, transferring, holding and selling. Saylor has explained why the BTC owned by MSTR is held in a custodial account and not a hardware wallet. He wasn't pushing for either/or type of ownership, simply explaining why his company holds it the way they do.

2globalnomads

>When FTX collapsed were there shorts on the other side who made a killing? It was CZ. >Is this a zero sum game? Definitely. >Could the FTX stooges have hedged their positions by placing offsetting positions against other crypto’s or perhaps stocks like MSTR or ??? I doubt that. >Shouldn’t they be prosecuted by borrowing depositors coins without their knowledge and then throwing their hands up when things blew up? SEC was in SBFs pocket. >Wasn’t the primary purpose of a decentralized currency, the ability to avoid regulation, taxation, and remain anonymous? CEXes are an anomaly in that sense. >I keep hearing about calls for regulation.. From greedy politicians who want their cut and from desperate crypto marketers who want to believe that it would return the trust. I doubt it would make anything else but increase corruption and make the system way more rigid, slower and politically motivated that it currently is.

fireballx777

MSTR at this point is basically a Bitcoin trust with extra steps. Only taking into account their Bitcoin holdings (and not evaluating any other aspect of their business), they're trading at a ~20% discount to NAV. If you assume their business is worth more than $0, then the discount is even better. For pure Bitcoin exposure, it's not as good of a discount as GBTC. But if you don't like the uncertainty around GBTC becoming an ETF (or just want to diversify BTC exposure in tax-advantaged accounts), MSTR is a good option.

bakraofwallstreet

Sure but it's not as simple as hodl BTC like Saylor claims. At a retail level, investors do not have that type of protection and would've sold by now. MSTR's bet on BTC is huge so they can't withdraw, doesn't mean they're genius or its the only right move as Saylor preaches

Zelulose

Tether imploding or Saylor $MSTR going bankrupt (btc liquidation 13500) are the worse case scenarios

gvictor808

MSTR is a cousin to what you describe. It acts as a leveraged Bitcoin ETF. They hold 130,000 BTC and also carry debt and also run a software company. But for all intents and purposes, it is a BTC ETF. I suppose, more importantly, it is the closest thing we have to an ETF here in the US.

red6786

This has been done- it’s called GBTC (also MSTR in levered form).

bakraofwallstreet

MSTR is down $1.8B on its BTC bet and its stock is in decline. There is no confirmable thesis as to when they'll make the money back.

LuKeNuKuM

I know some folks don't dig the guy but so far I think he's been a solid supporter and has literally put his money where his mouth is. He's humble to the 'OG' crew and very in tune with the maxi's to my mind. To come out hours after such big drops in BTC when he's so public about MSTR's holdings I think is noteworthy.

WallStreetBoners

Just for the record I only have cold storage sats. Either way it’s speculation. Yes the chance btc wins > the chance MSTR wins. But I can’t buy sats in my IRA; I can however buy call options.

diydude2

BTC wins. What happens with MSTR is out of my hands. Besides, who says your broker or the counterparty will even be able to pay up? The traditional financial system makes FTX look solvent. So I'll just keep sweeping sats into my wallet. It is what has always worked, and I see no reason for this time to be any different.

WallStreetBoners

A long dated call option on MSTR might have the best risk/reward right now. Either btc wins or loses. There is no in between.

Jeremiah_Vicious

MSTR to the moon

zeitgeist785

Imagine the worst possible scenario: Contagion is so bad that btc falls under 3k while interest rates keep rising, other exchanges go bust, miners go bust and turn into forced sellers, Saylor need to add more collateral, $MSTR get annihilated, $COIN declare bankruptcy BTC keep falling under 1500$, margin calls after margin call all the leverage is liquidated. 98% of the shitcoins go to zero. The industry is in shock, new very restrictive regulations get proposed. Years after year and “crypto” seems not a thing anymore. Mining becomes an hobbyist thing again as the difficulty adjustment plummets. Then people realise Bitcoin keeps going, block after block. The ledger hasn’t been affected, nodes are still active all around the world. Number of whole coiners all time high. Maybe Bitcoin is not crypto. People start realising that bitcoin is a mathematical discovery. It can’t fail. It can’t be killed. New start up ditch the crypto mania and start building on the only immutable ledger that matters 1 BTC = 1 BTC

bigboyz75

This is going to age well….MSTR is about to be forced to liquidate all its holdings of BTC because they’ve broken loan covenants and when they tried to renegotiate they had no success. So be ready for the market to absorb 130k more BTC. Surely they will try to sell secondary market but it’s coming one way or another.

EvaUnit343

Congrats! I think you should sell lmao, but you do you. I actually heard about it in 2016-2017. Thought it was pretty cool - I even built a mining rig. Then I lost interest. Fast forward to 2020, and it became clear to me the skyrocketing price was just FED-induced super liquidity, so I sold all my coins I had (not much, couple thousand bucks in gains). You say there is a "whole industry". Ok fine, but what have they actually done that justifies the hype? What problems is it actually solving that modern nations need solving? What merits BTC massively outperforming AAPL as an asset over the past decade? So much funding has gone into this space with so little to show for it. And every where I look industry "leaders" turn out to be grifters just looking to scam people (LUNA, FTX, MSTR). If I was Blackrock and their institutional ilk, I'd have a look around and get the fuck out. So, since money is no longer free (thanks JPOW), makes sense to go position short on crypto, which as far as I can tell has only ever been a levered play on money printing the past decade.

Bully__Maguire_

Saylor liquidated. That exact day when MSTR will go under, I will go all in.

EvaUnit343

Actually an excellent post. Thank you. It is indeed all a house of cards and anyone who values their money should get out now. Do you have a position to benefit? I’ve been very successful with BITI and COIN/MSTR puts this year. I will stick with BITI as I’m not sure their is a liquid way to directly short tether.

ben_kird

Can't tell if it's sarcastic or not but I'll bite. To short something you just borrow the asset, sell it at its current market value, and buy it back. If the prices goes up - you owe money, if the price goes down, you make money. So if you shorted MSTR you would have sold it for 1.2k on the open market. If you were to close the position you would have made (1.2k \* n) - (the current price - n) where n is the number of stocks/assets you shorted. Today it's price is $175 so you would have done well.

ben_kird

You should've shorted it a year ago - shorts on MSTR and COIN would have been appropriate. Don't short with crypto financial instruments - there is no way to guarantee liquidity. Don't be a dumbass. Or, do, I don't care - not financial advice do whatever the hell you like.

vonhudgenrod

They are in deep shit bro, their average cost is like in the high 20Ks, down over 1.5 billion and MSTR EPS is currently at - 54.

inadyttap

MSTR is currently still worth $1,630,000,000. they will manage.

Yoloballsdeep

Michael Sailor would disagree. In other news MSTR is eating shit

nationshelf

Interesting, miners going down more than MSTR.

iwakan

We all enjoy the loss porn of SBF losing billions, but don't forget that Michael Saylor has also lost about $700 million between bitcoin and MSTR stock in the last two days.

Giga79

All exchanges that don't audit their reserves imo are running a fractionalized reserve system. There's no reason *not* to sign your wallet otherwise. So basically only Kraken isn't lol. Most people don't self custody so most would never have an idea if their coins exist or not. Lots more people probably don't even care, and would be happy with paperbacked BTC (ETF/MSTR) if it means they can ride the price speculation. It's systemic and our community should probably try harder at getting people *out of* fractionalized crypto systems. The Monero community is able to every year.. Exchanges are only good for active trading and on/off ramps, *not storage*. None are regulated or trusted enough to ensure they back their reserve 1:1 as they should.

Alfador8

Thanks for the advice! Going all in on MSTR based on this

rqnyc

It's still gambling to ONLY invest in BTC. And it's a disservice to MSTR investors by having no long-term version of crypto evolution, and only knowing shill

bandikut2020

Went balls deep on MSTR, ARB and few others in my pension pot. Hasn’t gone as expected so far …

Technical_Order7673

>Instead of being down $1.3 billion on their investment, MSTR would be up $1.6 Bn. Thats a delta of almost $3 Billion.. It's billion of dollars Instead, if, and woulda.

KAX1107

Reddit shitposter telling a rocket scientist who runs a S&P 500 company he should have gambled on altcoins If MSTR started buying at the peak of late 2017 to early 2018 bull market, eth is down over 50% in BTC terms since then

technically_fruit

Chill, friend. I said entity. MSTR is an entity. In case it wasn't clear, my concern is not with the protocol, my concern is with the price (yes, I care about the price of Bitcoin). My point is, the MSTR board can wake up one day and decide to take the company in a different direction, and the whole market is going to suffer -- unsettling. The LUNA crash should be proof enough how flimsy the market actually is. If your point is that MSTR selling isn't going to have any significant impact on the market, well, all I can say is I disagree with you.

KAX1107

Who cares? Do you even understand bitcoin? Almost 300k BTC was dumped on the market from all the yield ponzis and overleveraged funds getting liquidated at once. Guess what happened next? Retail scooped it all up. 105k new bitcoin addresses became wholecoiners. Michael Saylor doesn't own 129k BTC. A public company is holding bitcoin as its balance sheet currency instead of dollars. They spent billions of dollars acquiring the position. Does it give MSTR any special privilege over the protocol? Nope.

arensurge

I didn't find anything personally. I invested in microstrategy via ISA which has the largest single holding of BTC of any publicly traded company. Theoretically when BTC value starts to moon again so will MSTR, however the correclation between the 2 definitely isn't perfect.

nationshelf

Swapped my IRA mining stocks for MSTR instead, thankfully before CORZ and Argo fell off the cliff.

MECO-420

MSTR is on fire.

gvictor808

Check this out. MSTR is late to the party? Square CashApp is live with lightning https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ye08ix/bitcoin_can_now_be_sent_and_received_on_cash_app/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

JunoKat

Bitcoin is always the first choice: You don’t need to trust MSTR management, you don’t need to worry about their business making a profit or lost, you don’t need to worry about them issuing more shares, or their partners who keep the bitcoin for them get hacked. Bitcoin has minimum third party risk. MSTR is a good option only if you don’t have an option to directly buy bitcoin, like money in a self manage pension fund in the UK for example: you can’t take the money out, but you can’t buy Bitcoin. Only then, consider MSTR.

extrastone

I think I would go with the Bitcoin but I'd like to make a simple case for owning some MSTR: Saylor talks about the idea that for a financial profile you need two things: a business that has positive cash flow and bitcoin. MSTR can be your business that has positive cash flow. When we arrive at hyper bitcoin MSTR will be a world leader in whatever it chooses to be. I'm not totally sure what that is which is why I am still hesitant.

underdog_exploits

There is nearly no difference in value, so imo, it’s about the risk. MSTR owns 130k btc, $2.6B value. At a stock price of $268.69, MSTR’s market cap is similarly $2.6B. It’s a little crazy that microstrategy’s market cap is currently only tied to its btc holdings, but I wouldn’t expect that to change under btc $31,000, which is mstr’s average cost. Once they are in a profitable position, then maybe they can look to sell and deploy that capital differently, but they have not said anything about that, so I wouldn’t expect anything anytime soon. I would not invest in a company based on something they could or might do, only based on what they’ve said they’re doing. Also, if mstr does sell btc in order to deploy that capital differently, it will likely be to fund an acquisition, and who knows how that will go, and they’ll have to pay a premium for whatever business they acquire. Maybe mstr gets acquired by a tech or bank, but that’s not something I’d bet on today. But it’s easy to believe mstr could have a ton of potential. Until mstr announces how they’ll deploy btc profits, then maybe you’d buy stock, but until then, I’d buy btc as the prices are linked and it’s less risk.

Existing-Vegetable-3

You can buy Bitcoin without kyc. But even so, I could leave the country today if I felt it was going in the wrong direction and then become a hated dissident in a non-extradition country. My Bitcoin will go with me, my MSTR will be frozen. Hopefully that makes sense. If not, I don't have time to explain it further, sorry.

Humanofnow888

BTC is censorship resistant. MSTR is a really good stock but still bonded to US market. I'll go with BTC. As recommended by Michael Saylor himself. 🤲🏽🧡✨

Leading-Fail-7263

MSTR’a supply can be increased with almost zero cost.

_-FallenArchangel-_

KYC ,order 6102 ,not to mention open ledger will not be hard for the feds to track you down and put you in prison until you hand over the Bitcoin. You own a company buy buying shares in it thus you technically own a part of the Bitcoin yes they can sell at a moment notice but at the moment would not make sense unless they were forced to. The reason I’m interested in MSTR is because I don’t have to secure it , I don’t have to pay a lawyer to make sure I’m complying with the government’s laws , I don’t have to worry about forgetting the seed code or natural disaster Most importantly I can’t be put in jail because of my Bitcoin. Someone sue me , government puts me in jail for owning Bitcoin, divorce, taxes, all of that type of stuff I don’t have to pay or deal with mstr does

Abundance144

The only reason yous consider it is that MSTR is a leveraged position. Potential greater gain, with potential greater losses.

Existing-Vegetable-3

Why would I want Microstrategy stock instead of Bitcoin? Is MSTR stock censorship resistant? If there is a crisis, can I be sure that my brokerage won't be able seize my MSTR stock? If forced to flee, can I memorize a few words, escape the country I live in, and be sure I still have access MSTR stock or will it get seized by the government? Can the government not just seize MSTR itself? Can I transfer MSTR stock to any body within minutes without relying on a third party? I think the answer is obvious. There's a reason we Bitcoin.

Jleeh7

MSTR could end up selling their btc for whatever reason

jimfird

The price of MSTR correlates pretty closely with the price of BTC. Could make some pretty decent premiums selling OTM CCs on that much stock. Unpopular opinion here maybe but I’d probably opt for the stock and use it for passive income on options.

gvictor808

If I were you, I’d put that $5k into MSTR which is a sort of leveraged BTC fund. DYOR and all, though. You are going to need to show traditional assets for loans and such, and with MSTR you also avoid a bunch of hassles while gaining max exposure to BTC. This is all assuming you are bullish on BTC.

Zigxy

People need to understand that price is determined by where sell pressure and buy pressure even out. HODL-ing doesn't actually cause price to go up. All it does is ensure you aren't part of the sell pressure. DCA-ing does cause the price to go up. But of course we should all be weary that DCA isn't magic; in investing we all need to recognize that: - Nothing is certain (e.g. BTC $100k) - Going all-in is not investing; its gambling. Nobody should have a majority of their portfolio in crypto IMO. I've seen a few people with the mentality that traditional investing returns aren't high enough to ever get them to retire. They believe with a few grand a year they will buy enough BTC to have financial freedom since it will 100x eventually... That is not responsible and will likely leave them even further behind than had they just saved traditionally and focused on school or work. Locked up crypto doesn't mean it will stay like that forever. If MSTR runs out of capital suddenly a few billion gets liquidated and then we will regret cheering on low liquidity.

MECO-420

No wonder my MSTR is up 16% in the last 30 days!! 🚀🚀

MECO-420

MSTR is up 16% in the last 30 days. We are in a bull run.

rpaverion

Some people / companies / investors have so much liquidity they lend it out at near-zero interest rate to credit-worthy* borrowers. *If MSTR is credit-worthy remains to be seen obviously

DefiantHamster

Capitulation is around 3.5k for MSTR. They have a ton more BTC to add if their leverage gets close. Their liquidation previously was around 17k and they added leverage to drop that this past summer.

MichaelAischmann

$MSTR is a leveraged Bitcoin bet. If you can't take the heat, don't do it.

jamesdthomson

Thinking of getting some $MSTR in my shares ISA (UK tax free savings account) in order to gain exposure to BTC price. But... what if BTC has a capitulation to \~$14k? Might Microstrategy end up liquidated and bankrupt? I'm confident BTC will be awesome by 2024/5, but how sure am I that MSTR will still be chugging?

xanderalmighty

“Michael Saylor is down about a billion dollars on his bitcoin (BTC) bet and just stepped down as CEO at MicroStrategy (MSTR), the software company he founded in the 1980s.” https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/08/04/michael-saylor-lost-big-in-the-dot-com-bubble-and-bitcoins-crash-now-he-aims-to-rebound-again/ Maybe he’s actually just an idiot.