MSTR

Pavickling

If MSTR is forced to start selling or starts selling covered calls below their avg. purchase price, $30K would be a strong entry.

TurkishBitcoiner

I am a long term MSTR share holder i know their strategy and dca. They won't have issues at all. As long as BTC grows 1.5% a year, and doesn't fall 80% and stay there for decades, MSTR shareholders won't have problems in the long term. Assuming 1.5% growth for BTC is also extremely low compared it's past performance of 80 vol, then 50 vol. MSTR will never sell BTC unless BTC and the stock market literally crashes much much much much worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

Scharman

just google MSTR average bitcoin price - last time I checked it was around $70k. If price dropped to their parity point they will have challenges. They are already seeing their share price drop, so will be interesting to see how they keep securing funding and maintaining their current debt.

BoringPrinciple2542

Double check my numbers… I pulled from several sources and put this together while jumping between meetings so could have some errors. If correct it looks like MSTR really nuked BTC per share in Q1 of this year. https://filebin.net/xa3ph8q1v3hlnogo

Scharman

MSTR doesn’t have the capital reserves for anywhere near 15-20k. I think they would fail at around 70k which is roughly where they bought in.

TurkishBitcoiner

Nvidia won't come in light with earnings, MSTR won't sell their BTC unless we go below 15-20k and stay there for few decades. December will come, QT will end, QE will come, china's 1.2 trillion stimilus check, usa 2000 usd stimilus check, the money supply reaching new ATH's and you think stocks and crypto will crash? The opposite is literally about to happen in the next few weeks.

imfuckinglying2u

MSTR and Saylor will be fine. Their investors, on the other hand...

devCheckingIn

MSTR going to be a penny stock soon.

GrumpyScroogy

Show me any prove institutions are buying bitcoin. And exclude MSTR

vremains

Is it ironic that I stack sats every day but I shorted MSTR 😅

Confident_Section568

He also commited fraud during dot.com bubble and after that And MSTR was biggest loss in dot.com bubble himself losing god knows how much

dataCollector42069

MSTR puts just printing money lol. I love crypto - it attracts ponzi's to bet against

phoebeethical

Any idea why the post would be removed from MSTR sub

pop-1988

This topic isn't relevant to cryptocurrency, because it discusses the fiat finance schemes being used as debt and pseudo-debt instruments by a single company. Who is affected if the preferred stock become worthless? Only those people who bought them It's obvious that the purpose of these schemes is to transfer the risk of Bitcoin price falls to the investor. The investor is aware of this, and chooses to accept the risk The dilution of ordinary shareholders' shares is also an issue. But those shareholders meet every year, and they re-elect the MSTR board. This mean that they're aware that their shares are being diluted Investor's choice. Investor's risk The real scam is those Redditors claiming that MSTR is a proxy for investing in the Bitcoin price market. It's a traditional stock market instrument. It's not Bitcoin

MeatKettle

Think, boy. It's going back up. And yet you sold at a loss. You gave away money for free! I'm sure MSTR appreciates your donation!

KenFX4

As a successful "early adopter" of bitcoin, I'm curious what your take is on the DATs that are popping up now. Are you a believer in MSTR and BMNR? Would you recommend some of us newer crypto investors (like me) skip the treasury stock investments and just go buy the coin directly through Coinbase or Cashapp?

Catchdown

MSTR is buying bitcoin except you give Saylor a slice of your pie for free. What a deal!

HesitantInvestor0

That's incoherent thinking. He isn't trying to time to bottom, in fact he CAN'T try timing anything even he wanted to. He can only buy when capital is flowing, when he can raise money. When is that easiest? When Bitcoin and MSTR is high. That's why you saw huge buys at local tops, and much smaller buys or no buys at all on weakness. It's the reason I don't like MSTR. Effectively they are handicapped, they cannot achieve a reasonable average buy in price.

Sanguinius

'We should just cheer for Saylor and MSTR to buy all the available BTC, because its main strength is decentralisation right? Right?'

VariatCA

It's always the ones that have literally no idea how MSTR's Bitcoin ownership or debt operates that are the loudest about "Saylor getting liquidated". Just a bunch of apes used to losing their paychecks on 0DTE stock gambling and think the whole world operates like that.

MikeysOnTheMoon

Where’s the guys saying MSTR is gunna get liquidated. Pretty much every comment in this sub yesterday 😂

CompetitiveAppeal663

You seen MSTR recently 😭

parntsbasemnt4evrBC

MSTR/ Alt coins are outperforming BTC< we might be headed to 97.5k now. ITs possible we get a lower low on BTC to sub 90k before reversing but depends on if there is one more big day flush on QQQ.

Complex-Photo-973

Fair enough — everyone has their own style. Just to clarify though: MSTR is volatile because it’s leveraged BTC, so it’ll swing harder both ways. Short-term it can lag, but over multi-year periods it’s still outperformed spot BTC because those equity raises stack more BTC per share over time. If you or anyone prefers stable, profitable businesses, totally reasonable. MSTR just isn’t built to be that type of investment

Complex-Photo-973

You’re looking at MSTR like it’s a normal operating company, but it’s basically a high-conviction BTC leverage vehicle. The “income/moat/secret sauce” isn’t the traditional business — it’s the fact that MSTR gives shareholders senior access to Bitcoin through a publicly traded, regulated company, with long-dated low-interest debt and zero liquidation risk (unlike leveraged crypto products). Equity raises aren’t a surprise — it’s the entire strategy. They issue shares when demand is high and convert that into more BTC. Historically, their BTC per share has still grown because the BTC they buy outpaces the dilution during bull cycles. If someone doesn’t want a leveraged BTC play, MSTR isn’t for them. But for people who do, MSTR has outperformed spot Bitcoin over multi-year periods, which is exactly why investors hold it. So it’s less about “understanding the business” and more about understanding the thesis: MSTR = long-term, conviction-based, non-liquidating leveraged Bitcoin exposure.

courtesy_patroll

From chat -  Strategy’s dividend products (STRC/STRD) are backed mostly by senior secured private credit loans, which are safer than junk bonds but riskier than Treasuries. The dividend is relatively safe because Strategy earns more on the loans than they pay out and can smooth payments with cash reserves and small MSTR equity sales. Principal risk is moderate—defaults can happen, but the loans are over-collateralized and short-term, which limits damage. Overall, they are fairly safe income products, but not risk-free like government bonds.

youhaveeTDS

To take it a step further, this year we had huge buys from MSTR and etfs.. for a measly 125k top, yikes, we would be lucky to see 150k top next cycle, Given that, we now have to consider if its even worth it, because many stocks and even gold will outperform it going forward

youhaveeTDS

#A year of huge buys from MSTR and etfs.. for a measly 125k top, yikes, we would be lucky to see 150k top next cycle #is it even worth it going forward? Many stocks, even gold will outperform it

Simke11

Safer for whom? If the stock dumps, certainly not for shareholders. Even if MSTR can continue to hold, it benefits no one apart from Saylor.

AnyPortInAHurricane

Doesn't matter, $MSTR was what pumped it to begin with with their ponzi

VariatCA

Bingo. MSTR is far safer than most people realize or give them credit. They aren't in danger if they drop under their average, and it will also take a *long* time even underneath 15k until an action like having to partially sell would ever be required. Shareholders would be stuck, but MSTR would still remain stable and can afford to just HODL for years if need-be lol.

300A24

> Short of a black swan event like FTX, Luna, Mt. Gox, etc, $MSTR

PirateSKB

I just looked at MSTR for the first time in a while, and holy crap whoever bought in August or during this peaks was a madlad lol

Escapement_Watch

MSTR pays a premium OTC by 7k on average.

dataCollector42069

Loving my MSTR puts now already pulled out my cost basis and now they are printing harder

blackjackn

Down about $5k. Not worried. Still doing my dca. If it goes to 85 I'll allocate some dca to MSTR for more leverage.

blackjackn

I'm still doing my dca as usual but if it goes below 85, I'll allocate 20% of my dca to MSTR for even more volatility.

tomsmac

You’re exactly right. I don’t care what Michael Saylor says, at some point MSTR is so leveraged he’ll have to sell and that’s going to take the entire industry down with it. (fyi, Saylor arrogantly says if bitcoin goes to $1 he won’t have to sell)

biggamble510

Pressuring interest rate cuts during high inflation, passing spending bills while cutting taxes. You know, general run a huge deficit things like the first term. Except it's different this time... It's not printing, at least not for Bitcoin or the bottom 99%. And that's going to be a problem. There's no real liquidity from retail waiting to enter. And institutional is fully engaged. What happens when MSTR, a ridiculous concentration of coins, starts to struggle with debt financing? Average buy is mid $70s.

Editor-Forward

His college fund is 100% MSTR

tpc0121

you realize that MSTR was around during the last bear market? or that MSTR's mNAV compressed to like 0.70 and stayed there for months? when they were more levered up? please do some actual research before posting dumbass takes smfh.

blackjackn

I'm dumping my Bitcoin and buying MSTR for the leverage.

viresennumeris

MSTR is not the reason bitcoin is up or down. They buy OTC. it’s not reflected in the market. Bitcoin is up or down purely bc of volatility, there’s no rhyme or reason. Bitcoin will continue to do what it wants whether companies/countries are buying or not or whether legislation is getting passed or not. It made it this far without them and doesn’t need anything or anybody to continue to succeed. It will succeed on it’s own purely based on its untouchable algorithm that can’t be manipulated by this corrupt world and that is the only calm we all need to continue to whether these drops mentally and come out on top when Bitcoin eventually goes back up

JollyPicklePants1969

Sure, and what you say sounds smart, but the real question is - are you correct? Your arguments make a lot of sense on the surface, but you make a lot of assumptions, and without actual data and analysis, it's just fluff. (typical retail lol). Not gonna lie, I'm retail too. I'm not a fund manager or anything, but I've been watching markets for about twenty years now. Here's my response to your points. 1. Forced selling happens and institutions are participants in that. I lived through 2008, and that was quite a lesson there, but it's impossible to know how deep any deleveraging is going to be in the near term, or which markets will be most affected. 2. I don't know why you made this point. ETFs aren't anything special. If you're saying risk averse participants will stop buying and start selling bitcoin, then sure. That's a given. 3. You might be overstating how overleveraged MSTR is. 4. Maybe, maybe not. 5. Didn't we already have a huge perp unwinding? Isn't the current dip a byproduct of that. It seems to me this fall has been the product of the unwinding you are talking about here. The question is, how much is past, and how much is in the future? 6. QE should arrive after pain in theory, as a sort of stimulus out of recession. But there are other driving forces now. I would say that what you are laying out is highly possible. It's not a given though. I've been in the game long enough, and wrong enough times to know that we could be at or near the bottom right now, we could dip further to 70k, or we could even head to 40k, but there's a lot of complexity to consider.

SwimOld5053

The part where you sell if it goes 16K 😅 MSTR didn't have such holdings in 2022.

kingsheperd

Which part? To me, you are the one talking nonsense. Why would MSTR ”explode” now if it didn’t when btc went down to 16k in 2022-2023?

kingsheperd

I love how MSTR is the ”tsar bomba” but came out fine when BTC bottomed to 16k last time, fuck, they were fine before that too. If ETH or btc even comes close to the last ATL I’m selling everything I own istg

spirax919

im an MSTR holder When BTC becomes the biggest asset in the world, Saylor will own damn near 10% of it MSTR will become the single biggest company to ever exist

binary_quasar

Anybody who says this hasn't looked into details and is a charlatan. Bitcoin would have to sit for an extended amount of time below $40k for MSTR to be at risk of **anything** beyond a stock selloff. People think Saylor has a automatic liquidation price like they're trading on fucking BitGet. You have no idea what you're talking about. Stop spreading FUD.

ShittingOutPosts

Only people who cannot define a Ponzi scheme think BTC and MSTR are Ponzi schemes. They don’t remotely fit the definition.

inphenite

I wrote this post on r/mstr but it also explains primarily what I think is happening with BTC right now. Might offer value for some Bitcoiners here. https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/s/d2BLqJYlgP

smellyfingernail

Michael "Do Kwon" Saylor's preferred equity are now trading below their peg. He will no longer be able to ATM sell these for more money to buy bitcoin - meaning MSTR no longer has any available source of cash flow to buy with. Doom loop has begun

greatthebob38

So that AI post of him paddling away from a burning ship is him selling MSTR

Wheaties4brkfst

MSTR probably won’t implode but I do think holders are going to see a serious decrease in BTC/share. Worst case scenario probably is that the bonds are OTM at maturity or the holders exercise their puts at an inopportune time and they have to dilute very quickly. And the whole thesis of investing in MSTR is that BTC/share increases over time.

parntsbasemnt4evrBC

MSTR looks like it might be seeing initial signs that shorts are covering with the it strengthening towards the end of the day , meaning there is some anticipation of a intermin bottom shortly in BTC. Although one day it is very early you need a secondary day of strength to really to confirm.

biba8163

*OP bought a bunch of shitcoins because he thought they'd all *"go through the roof"* in Altseason and he lost a ton of money. So he decided to post like he still knows something, warning of the most brutal crypto crash and of MSTR collapsing.* *Just like he knows nothing of how crypto markets work, he knows nothing about Microstrategy debt structure, obligations and maturity.* **HINT NOOB: Microstrategy leverage is nothing like 3AC, Celsius and Terra.** I do have some concerns past 2027-2028 but if you are going to write about MSTR collapse, at least provide some details and a cohesive breakdown of why it will fail and not some bogus gibberish just because you lost money on ETH and shitcoins like ADA and LINK. > Tell me your three bets and why **(Nov. 15, 2024)** > ADA/ETH/SOL/LINK https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1grzmlx/comment/lxbn0pb/ > I have hears this one many times, every cycle "this will be the mast major alt season". Yet, we see it again and again. Also this time. **(November 2024)** > In fact, the high liquidity injection to BTC's mcap could truly send ETH through the roof when focus shifts. https://np.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/1gq1oax/comment/lwxx711/ > ADA and ETH are my top bets. Personally I believe ADA has a lot more room for growth, also financially. **(December 2024)** https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1h43p01/any_coins_that_will_beat_eth_and_ada_in_2025/lzxm06k/ I warned NOOBs like the OP that THIS time was very different. You can't be holding a bunch of shitcoins and expect them to just go up. They lost money and now still are acting like they know what they're talking about. > Noobs who weren't around in 2016 and 2020, you should know that 2024 looks very very different so far than at this time frame in 2016 and 2020. **(Nov. 5, 2024)** https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gkfvzs/bitcoin_price_crushing_altcoins_heading_into_us/lvlrry1/ > The market is changing: ETFs, MSTR, etc account for a lot of the inflows. This money is not going to leave BTC seeking greater return on Alts **(Nov. 13, 2024)** https://np.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/1gq6ahm/daily_general_discussion_november_13_2024/lwymxl9/ > Each cycle is a bit different. Too many people are saying, just hold on to your coins, it's playing out exactly the same. **(Nov. 13, 2024)** https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gqexix/why_are_there_so_few_active_users_when_btc_is_at/lwxx36a/ > Be careful of people telling you this cycle is playing out exactly the same. ETFs, institutional and mainstream involvement, memecoins, L2 options and ETH competitors, it's very different **(Nov. 19, 2024)** https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1gujmk1/daily_crypto_discussion_november_19_2024_gmt0/lxyt5pw/

SwimOld5053

Good breakdown. I’m not saying MSTR is another Terra. They’re transparent and heavily regulated. The risk is more about how a high cost basis + leverage + macro stress can force balance-sheet decisions long before people expect it. It’s not about fraud risk. It’s about institutional structure under pressure.

GrumpyScroogy

OP is correct, predicted this 8 months ago already. 1) Trump is a huge risk for crypto, since he is a grifter and doesnt care about anything besides his own wallet 2) MSTR is a bomb that has blown up before and will do so again 3) This time is different "its not" See: [https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1jeh9rm/been\_here\_since\_2016\_crypto\_subreddit\_are\_dead/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1jeh9rm/been_here_since_2016_crypto_subreddit_are_dead/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)

boristheblade223

What happens if there’s no MSTR to push up BTC afterwards?

22marks

This take on MSTR is way off. People keep repeating it because it sounds dramatic, not because it matches how MicroStrategy’s debt actually works. MSTR is a leveraged BTC play, sure, but most of their debt is unsecured or convertible with long-dated maturities. Only one slice is backed by BTC, and the collateral requirements are nowhere near being triggered by a routine 40 to 50 percent drop. Saylor set it up on purpose so they would not face forced selling during normal crypto volatility. (I believe the origin of this is from Silvergate, but that loan was paid off in 2022.) The comparisons to 3AC, Celsius, Terra, or FTX make no sense. I mean, come on. Those blew up because of hidden leverage, rehypothecation, fraud, or unbacked liabilities. MicroStrategy is a publicly traded company with audited financials and transparent debt terms. Risky? Absolute. But comparing to the other companies is lazy. If BTC dropped hard, MSTR’s stock would get wrecked, but forced liquidation of their Bitcoin is not an automatic chain reaction. And even if margin pressure hit the secured loan, they could post additional collateral. This idea that a margin call on MSTR would unleash a crash worse than every prior blowup isn't supported by data.

dennis3282

I'm still hoping for more bull, but it looks bleak now. But if the bear is here, let's nuke it as low as possible. Why do you think MSTR will implode though, out of curiosity?

Digitalbanana

MSTR bought over the course of last week, it was only reported today. $102k is the average purchase price during that period. Saylor normally posts the purchase stats for the prior week on the following Monday.

AutoModerator

Post is by: n8ivblu and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: https://www.strategy.com/purchases Strategy's latest purchase, reported today, is for 8178 BTC at $102k each. The market price for the past few days has been much lower than that, and today's price is $10k lower. Why would MSTR pay a 10% premium instead of buying at market? Is it a private purchase thatvwas at a pre-negotiayed price rayher than a market purchase? Or is the reporting delayed and it was a previous purchase? Is there anyone who knows how to check the on chain data to see when they aquired the additional BTC in this batch? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

SwimOld5053

Well done. And Pretty much as you say. I see MSTR implode similar to when FTX collapsed. It was brutal for the market, but it also created one of the best buying opportunities of the cycle. We probably wouldn’t have seen $15-16K BTC without that liquidation cascade. Same idea applies here. Big failures hurt, but they also open doors for the bold.

siasl_kopika

\> For me, in the account I bought MSTR MSTR is a way to buy bitcoin for people who cant print money that cant leave the stock market in very specific ways. For them, MSTR is a good option, because the imaginary dollars they are spending cannot be used to buy real btc. MSTR isnt really optimal for an individual to buy, not with money you earned or retirement savings. For individuals, always buy and withdraw to self custody.

clem_the_man

I sold my last Satoshi at 102k looking to buy back when MSTR implodes

SwimOld5053

Stocks don’t have collateral based unwind risk like BTC does. ETF redemptions, MSTR leverage and corporate treasury exposure create forced selling that stocks simply don’t have. Yes, institutions don’t need to sell everything. They only need to sell enough to trigger cascades, and crypto reacts way harder to those moves.

peppaz

Most can't get liquidated. Like MSTR doesnt have a liquidation price. They owe convertible bonds of.common stock in the futue.

SwimOld5053

Yeah, they are just another bagholder like anyone else in crypto. They had good DCA in strategy, but no exit plan. They will be forced to sell the bitcoins when BTC plummets to south of $70K. I believe the next big black swan event of 2026 will be the downfall of MSTR when they're liquidated, we retail will have amazing entry point again.

clintstorres

Yeah I haven’t looked into it in any detail. So I could be completely wrong and I am trying to see something that isn’t there. But people on this sub are acting like when announcement is made that the price should go up afterwards. It may go up but has nothing to do with MSTR because the announcement is the last thing in the process.

Friendly-Profit-8590

I get that. It’s not a 1:1 with bitcoin. For me, in the account I bought MSTR, buying btc was not an option. Think ibit may not have been either so it was the next one up. As it stands I also own ibit.

clintstorres

I mean there are a lot of people who are bullish on bitcoin but bearish on MSTR even if it doesn’t explode because MSTR has additional costs that owning bitcoin or even an ETF do not. Let’s say that the drag on MSTR compared to btc is 1% to account for paying the companies employees and other costs. Over time that 1% adds up very quickly and BTC and MSTR will diverge in value further and further every single year.

SATASHl

You care too much about Saylor and MSTR. Bitcoin is autonomy. You get to do your thing, he gets to do his thing. Doesn't really matter if he's faking it all.

clintstorres

Hasnt he sold like over a billion dollars worth shares in MSTR over the last 2 years?

Friendly-Profit-8590

Honestly, to me, that’s one of the intriguing things about MSTR. Its future is binary. Bitcoin either has a future or it doesn’t. If it’s the latter MSTR goes up in smoke but if it’s the former there really are no limits.

thekoonbear

Not margin like the 100x degens but yeah companies like MSTR issuing debt to buy BTC is certainly buying on margin.

Competitive-Bend5730

Saylor keeps buying regardless of price 8,178 btc at current levels is over 750M thats quick mafs. He's either a genius or gonna blow up spectacularly, no in between, polymarkets MSTR stock performance would show if traders think this strategy works long term

Zigxy

Yeah, they thought the movement of his coins meant something What folks need to understand is that MSTR only has one option: Full throttle forward. They are by FAR the largest source of buy pressure for BTC. As soon as MSTR stops injecting billions with their massive buys… or even worse, starts selling, then prices will drop.

parntsbasemnt4evrBC

I think the biggest risk right now is MSTR, it continues to bleed into a discount NAV for their holdings, Although Saylor claims they can surive an 80% drawdown and meet all payments on debt, the gap between what hes saying and what the stock is saying is widening indicating their might be skeleton in the closet to come out and force liqudiation earlier.

Real-Craft-1984

Old wallets are selling you're right. The question is whether it's overwhelming demand or being absorbed. Dominance is currently stable at 58-59% ish, MVRV-Z at 2.06 (fair value), MSTR bought 487 BTC on Nov 10. This looks like distribution from old holders to new buyers, not panic into a vacuum. I tried not to cherry pick metrics. I used 10 data points that previously flashed at tops to avoid this, but what am I missing? Which metrics contradict the thesis? Genuinely just want to understand what's happening, not defend the position or be right - welcome the feedback and the discussion.

Bennyharveygbnf

Why would anyone use a currency that is hoarder by one company? The more bitcoin MSTR accumulates the more likely mainstream adoption never happens. 

Conscious-Music-8688

….I honestly feel like sometime in the near future, we will read about MSTR having to dump huge amounts of BTC at a loss.

zooka19

Haven't looked at my portfolios for a while, and was busy rejigging my stocks (sold MSTR and STKE, I won't be touching crypto treasuries again). Holy bleeding of my crypto portfolio. Got a little cash on the side to dca some more (and payday this week). Gonna wait and look at the charts though.

word-dragon

Well, they are a publicly traded company, so they have reporting requirements for assets. I guess they could lie, but most companies don’t - the cost of being found out is high from a PR standpoint. Not sure what you mean by “traditional accounting measures”. They have presumably a bunch of an accounts on the blockchain, and can easily add up the coin in each. They don’t need a huge accounting department for that - 1 guy with a computer and 2 other guys to check his work and keep him honest, and 6 managers to write up reports and watch over the operation. Your interest in their assets is very indirect - when you buy into an ETF , you get a line in their spreadsheet saying how much they think they are holding on your behalf. So you have a good reason to want to insure that they have 100% of the coin they claim. With MSTR, there is no suggestion that you own a slice of their coin. You have about as much business looking into their bitcoin level as into their video conferencing costs.

SATASHl

I don't care about Saylor. I think the whole MSTR thing is stupid. Doesn't mean he needs to prove anything to you though.

SATASHl

What's with the name calling? Did you put your money in MSTR and lose your savings?

Various_Win562

The whole point of MSTR is to invest in Bitcoin and with that is basically betting against the traditional system. So they should not rely on on traditional authorities to proof the essential things.

word-dragon

MSTR is not an ETF. You don’t own any of his coin. He provides investment products which are fueled by bitcoin. If you buy his stock, you are betting on those products making money. Basically, you are buying Michael Saylor and his strategy, not bitcoin. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s just not investing in bitcoin.

pop-1988

MSTR used to have an operating business. The market for that business gradually declined. MSTR was flush with cash, so the board considered pivoting to a new business model. When that discussion failed, the founder decided to put all the company's cash into Bitcoin As the price increased, MSTR borrowed to buy more Bitcoin, with the loans optionally payable with MSTR shares when they fall due - putting all the BTC price downside risk onto the lenders More recently, MSTR have been offering several tranches of preferred stock, and using the money from selling those shares to buy more Bitcoin

pop-1988

> He’ll need to sell if he can’t roll over the notes / debt on his books when they come due The debt is supposed to fall due over a period which spans dips, based on historical pullbacks from ATH. A pullback never drops below prior stable price periods, and often doesn't drop below the previous ATH. The long trend has always been up. The lenders are lending, and the preferred stock buyers are buying because they share the same bet as Saylor, that future price trends approximately follow post-2016 patterns It's not fraud because the lenders share the same view of future price movements as Saylor. But the plan collapses if the long-term up trend doesn't continue. The benefit to the company is that the debt converts to MSTR shares if the BTC price drops. MSTR doesn't become insolvent. It only has a sharp share price fall. The lenders wear the insolvency risk, stuck with penny shares as a loan repayment. They're aware of that risk, and so optimistic about BTC number-go-up that they don't care

OrcOgi

What are we waiting for: 1) The breakdown to 40/50k 2) MSTR to blow up 3) Trump to be impeached 4) Bitcoin to be officially linked to Epstein 5) ?●₩Blackswan#29¿♤◇ Any of these will do really. Cya at 38k end next year. Real world will finally move on from the c***** that is crypto. And this is coming from a 10 year+ holder that was in it for the money, not because i really believed in the tech.

mikkeltaylor1

Absolute bs. Apart from MSTR (which would be fine for multiple years even down at $20k as massively under levered) the rest don’t make up any where near the difference. Are you some sort of bot programmed to spread lies and fud or just that uneducated?

Misher7

He’ll need to sell if he can’t roll over the notes / debt on his books when they come due. That works in a very liquid market where credit is flowing. If he can’t refinance or it has to be under terms that are more stringent then yes, he may have to sell some btc. It depends on the lenders and how they view him as a counter party risk. Right now lenders are tightening their asses and they may view preferred stock as collateral as dogshit. MSTR’s risk is not btc falling below their average. It’s becoming insolvent. And trump would be fucking dumb enough to bail him out for some quid pro quo (benefiting his now crypto bag). The optics on that would be on a whole other level of fucked up.

Awkward_Potential_

I'm buying more MSTR just because of this post. Counter trading reddit poors is the only alpha I need.

biggamble510

These posts are pretty wild. What's the next driver of the bull run? MSTR is going to start a selloff, institutional and ETFs are already engaged. Retail who can barely afford to live? Enjoy the coping mechanisms, I hope you have an exit plan.

Y0l0BallsDeep

MSTR is fucked. Michael Saylor is going to eat shit and sell his bitcoin very soon to pay his preferred share holders their 10% The only one who can save us is the US taxpayer if Trump bails out Bitcoin and pump our bags with taxpayer money

Impossible-Weight852

We need big players like MSTR to step up big time, but I suspect they may be over leveraged to do anything. They’re probably hoping that bitcoin doesn’t go any lower to save themselves from being liquidated.

blaggerbly

MSTR is leveraged 14% mNAV contracting is fair He’s never doubling his stack is he so no way it can be greater than maybe 1.5. Currently at 1.21 Bitcoin going down. What is fair to question is the company valuation based on unrealised gains when BTC increases and calling it profit. The value of the company has to increase/decrease with BTC price but that’s balance sheet value, it’s not profit. I’m no accountant, and it’s all smoke and mirrors anyway, but MSTR and profit is the weird thing to debate. MSTR is not over leveraged

blackjackn

All good. I'm still DCAing. When it looks like its bottomed out, 10-20% of my BTC dca will go to MSTR.

Complex-Photo-973

MSTR is a leveraged long on Bitcoin with a management team that actually knows how to use debt and equity to keep stacking BTC. Saylor has conviction, the company isn’t under near-term debt pressure, and every major BTC bull cycle tends to send MSTR up even harder than Bitcoin itself. If BTC keeps growing, MSTR gives amplified upside. To top that. Do you think there won’t be any rate cuts happening within the next 2 quarters? There’s almost 90% that rate cuts will happen, even with data points that didn’t release. And when these rate cuts happen, these are a trigger point to crypto to turn bullish. I’m not arguing or wanting you to agree. Just laying out my side of facts. Many people here are wanting to go lower just to benefit their mind, to enter at lower prices, that’s the only fact they have.