MSTR

restore_democracy

Quite the contrary, if you could indirectly buy $1.05 worth of platinum for $1 it would be a better investment than if you had to pay $1.05 for $1 worth of platinum. Better to buy at a discount than a premium, at least once it gets beyond a range that accounts for any friction or expenses. Buying MSTR when it was at 2-3x its holdings was what didn’t make sense.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

MSTR owns over 3% of the total supply and over 4% of the circulating supply, if you don’t think that hasn’t moved the price up I don’t know what to tell you. Saylor himself has said if MSTR never bought BTC its price would be 10k right now.

VIXtrade

>wtf is everyone freaking out about MSTR investors have already seen the price lose more than 70% since it peaked and started crashing

jarederaj

It is commonly assumed that MSTR is the largest buyer, but they are a tiny percentage of trading volume and there isn’t good supporting evidence for the claim that they are the largest.

DeLoreanDMC-12

Even if bitcoin goes down, it creates an opportunity to do accumulation. Bitcoin is just dependent on MSTR would be wrong, both financial giants Blackrock and Fidelity has billions parked in BTC. There will be demand. Right now people are hoarding gold once that gold rush is over they will return to digital gold aka bitcoin.

No-Operation-3100

Could you share a source for those 800K? I’m reading 100K: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/29403831860617. On the same period, MSTR has bought 32K, and despite that prices have dropped 30%.

FnAardvark

It bodes fine for the future IMO. OG whales dumped over 800k BTC between Oct and Dec. That means the market absorbed more BTC than MSTR holds in just a few months. Yea, the price is down, but MSTR doesn't move the market because they aren't a significant part of the market volume.

Party-Ingenuity-3967

Please do research about the conversion prices of the convertible notes and the different preferred stocks of MSTR before saying that kind of blatant falsehood.

ThreeTonChonker

Is any of this even worth discussing anyway? MSTR buys aren’t moving the price of BTC. Every couple of years this sub finds a new source of FUD (China ban, tether liquidity, quantum computing, etc) and if it isn’t bots driving it for market makers then it’s the human equivalent. FTX was never part of the FUD narrative because it was actually a huge deal but like most things you should actually fear, completely unknown. My underlying assumption is that market makers consider this sub to be retail and thus use FUD as a lever to push sentiment in whatever direction they choose. Which is hilarious because redditors can’t be making that much while working the drive thru at Wendy’s so I don’t know why they bother.

pop-1988

What you're really saying is that the debt exceeds the equity if the price falls further than 40k The OP linked article hypothesizes $13k It's not a simple as that anyway. The article predicts collapse in 2026, but the loans become due in 2028. Also, when the loans fall due, they can be converted to MSTR stock

pop-1988

> MicroStrategy could become insolvent Not true. MSTR can convert the loans and the preferred stock to regular stock. The low stock price might make the lenders insolvent MSTR's accumulation of Bitcoin is a number-go-up bet. It's obvious that if the price doesn't go up, the bet fails The loan contract periods are based on a prediction of the timing of price increases which follow a price fall. The prediction is based on an analysis of historical price charts. That is, it doesn't matter if the price falls below $13k, if it increases back to at least $70k before the loans fall due The lenders are playing exactly the same bet. They know they're risking insolvency if the price is low when the loans fall due, ie. if the historical cycle doesn't repeat MSTR's chief number-go-up advocate claims MSTR never needs to sell BTC. That's true, because MSTR can convert its loans to regular stock Who loses if the price falls and doesn't go back up? Lenders and shareholders, through MSTR stock price fall, and dilution Is it sustainable? No, because historical price charts are not useful for predicting future price movements

MonsieurGump

Bitcoin goes to 40k. MSTR survives but at $60 a share. The recovery comes in 2027, everything peaks pre-halving.

No-Operation-3100

For me the main issue is that MSTR is the biggest buyer at the moment, and therefore contributes significantly to the buying pressure. If they stop buying, we should expect the price to lower or even to drop. We need to differentiate here the traded volume (mostly driven by Market Makers, Day Traders), and the “true volume” (the people that actually are trying to build a position). If they have to start selling, there is a significant risk of a death spiral : they sell, lowering the price of their remaining assets, forcing more sales, and so on.

baIIern

Some 'investors' thought it's a good idea to buy $MSTR instead of Bitcoin. It's so sad. Many people will have a hard time

jl2l

The average cost per coin is $70k. If it goes below that it's negative cash flow, when USD runs out where are they going to get the money? Under $16-20k they are insolvent. They don't produce anything it's Aerotyne Aerospace and they have a new generation of military radars that are going to blow your socks off John. Trust me and join us at the investor center. The bigger issue is that it could become a bear sterns moment because they basically are doing credit default swaps only with Bitcoin instead of mortgages..and no ones knows how many institutions are sucked into MSTR ponzi.

Agreeable_Meaning_96

you seriously think a company with $50 billion in bitcoin value is going to go under on $15 billion in debt, anyone doubting it not being serious, if bitcoin goes to $40k MSTR has more equity than debt, wtf is everyone freaking out about

HSuke

I'm more concerned that they are canabalizing MSTR with their preferred shares (STRC, STRK). It has gotten too complex.

dweeegs

I’m in agreement, MSTR has a bunch of catalysts that made it suck *especially* hard over the last couple months 1) it’s been selling shares to build up a cash position on top of the shares it was selling to buy Bitcoin 2) it’s already considered a leveraged Bitcoin proxy and Bitcoin itself has been trading awful 3) fears about the MSCI index exclusion that’s about to be ruled on 4) it’s a prime candidate for tax loss harvesting. Pretty common for shit stocks to get extra shitty into year end as they get sold to offset gains elsewhere #1 appears to be over, #4 is basically over, #2 is probably more than priced at this point as it’s been a known potential for months And for #3, I think metals take a break here soon and crypto takes over as the new momentum trade I actually don’t hate owning crypto or MSTR here. MSTR will be more explosive out of the gate if crypto does bounce but I’d flip back into crypto itself afterwards for a sustained long-term holding

Easik

You should literally type a complete thought when commenting to people. MSTR and BTC are both near 52 week lows. mNAV is also near a 52 week low.

The_Realist01

Btc was higher than $10k without him. He was an ant in 2020-2021. With that aside: Anyone buying over 1.0-1.5 nav should NOT HAVE been doing that. I’ll say it again, buying MSTR is a dumb leveraged btc proxy. There’s no need to do that. However, he is extremely advantaged in his position, and he’ll likely do much better than me buying spot btc. 2 years of preferred is huge. Don’t belittle that. He could raise another 2 years at very little comp in the next 7 days and not even blink. He’s already won, it’s just how much more will he be able to vacuum up.

WrathofTitus

The bearish reddit crypto bros here forget that MSTR went through the last bear market with no issues. I'm sure everything will be fine once global liquidity starts pumping again.

DrEtatstician

BTC/ MSTR - 85% : QQQ- 10%; VTI - 5% that’s my portfolio from 2020

ThatsAllFolksAgain

Tl;dr: Wall Street wants MSTR to die so they can steal all their bitcoins. If bitcoin was allowed to rise then MSTR would become the most valuable company in the world and that cannot be allowed. They don’t like Saylor.

Easik

The MSTR website has up to date information that this random website can't have until their fillings hit public record. At best, they mirror strategy's website, at worse their data is old.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

The preferreds are perpetual, they only have enough cash to cover them for 2 years, they will then have to raise more cash. It still costs them 1.5% per year, every year. Stock comp still dilutes the shareholder, it’s still a cost. MSTR shareholders were sold a bill of goods thinking they’d get “BTC yield” by over paying for shares 3x their value. Quarterly BTC has gone from 48% to 11% to 7.8% to 5.2% to now negative 2.3% this quarter. Can’t wait for the whole thing to implode. Saylor has even said that if MSTR wasn’t buying, Bitcoin would be at 10k right now lol.

HSuke

A random website? Dude. That's one of the sites that gets quoted on the r/MSTR sub all the time. No one trusts the data from strategy.com because they fudge it in their own favor.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

They pay their management in shares. They also owe 800 million a year in dividends. IBIT charges a .25% “management fee”. MSTR has various obligations that amount to over 1.5% of their Bitcoin holdings per year.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; MicroStrategy's (MSTR) stock is facing challenges as its enterprise value net asset value (mNAV) turns negative for the first time, driven by the ongoing Bitcoin crash and shareholder dilution. The company's Bitcoin holdings have significantly declined in value, and its stock has formed bearish patterns, including a death cross. With further dilution expected and Bitcoin's bearish outlook, MSTR's stock price may continue to fall, potentially targeting the psychological threshold of $100. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

WD40Capital

Anyone buying MSTR has just been financing his dream.

Seattleman1955

You don't get it. They aren't "highly" leveraged. The common shareholder is being diluted during most periods. They own a lot of BTC and they have issued a lot of stock to pay for it and they pay a lot in preferred dividends. I could have 1 BTC or a 1,000 but a 1,000 is any better if I have to pay a lot and take on a lot of debt to get it. MSTR mainly buys BTC when BTC is expensive. Why do you think the mNAV is almost 1 at this point? Common shareholders are on to the game and aren't paying a premium. When MSTR started doing this, they could finance at almost zero interest and BTC was at a low. That's why their returns were high. That isn't happened again. Now they finance with diluting shareholders and by pay 10% interest to preferred holders (expensive) and mainly buy when they have a higher mNAV, which is when BTC is at a high. It's not sustainable for many reasons.

SatoshiReport

MSTR's whole premise is for pension funds which can't own Bitcoin as per their charter can get Bitcoin as an equity. People paid a significant premium for this service however that premium is shrinking. Then what is the point of a stock that is pure bitcoin? Just buy an ETF. MSTR is going down and I hope they don't take Bitcoin down with them.

StackingSats1300

ETFs have more coins combined than MSTR - but they don't control them.  So they don't control the thing that doesn't give control over the network. Additionally, ETFs are owned by large institutions, which may buy or sell as they see fit.  They are good investors as still more slow to sell than retail - but they CAN sell. Thus, ETFs are a second level buyer in my eyes.  Better than lettuce hands but not legally forbidden from selling until an age is hit.

StackingSats1300

Ownership doesn't give control over the network. The only thing that consolidation does is prevent adoption by others. Is that a problem? Unknown. Additionally, noone will be able to out buy MSTR without sending the price parabolic. MSTR has just over 3% of the coins in existence. Jack Mallers from 21 is going to start building a business to earn more Bitcoin but he has roughly 600,000 coins to earn to pass Saylor. Having two such companies regularly smash buying Bitcoin should be positive for the asset price, slowing down accumulation. Finally, at some point in 2026, your 401k and such for USA citizens will let you buy BTC. I would bet many Bitcoin believers will utilize this feature. When this happens, many coins will go into 401k balances that aren't touched for decades. This puts more coins out of reach for others to buy - preventing a mass accumulation like MSTR.

Seattleman1955

You don't understand Strategy as a stock. Over time, BTC will do better than MSTR.

ThatsAllFolksAgain

The reason bitcoin is not going up is because of MSTR. They have too many bitcoins and if bitcoin were to go up to a million, then the banks will be begging MSTR for whatever. They will liquidate MSTR and then magically bitcoin will zoom up. Poor saylor got too close to the sun and now he’s likely going to be burned.

Vipu2

MSTR is printing fiat? What did I miss

PointOfTheJoke

MSTR gets their money through people voluntarily exchanging their money for an asset they think is a good deal. MSTR did a business. Not a money print.

fakehalo

His leveraging behavior feels anti-bitcoin to me, he makes himself and his company vulnerable to the very thing that spawn bitcoin in the first place (the over leveraged great recession in 08/09). I was short MSTR, closed it too early and now it's too low to mess with IMO, just long bitcoin cold storage at this point.

ExtraGuacAM

Is this a real tweet? If so can you share the link? This gives me even more reason not to trust $MSTR and Saylor…. Saylor is bad for Bitcoin. 

PowerFarta

Or holding MSTR lmao

rauzzz_z

Oh no! The same thing MSTR is doing

LiquidityScope

Good overview of macro dates, but the MicroStrategy “forced liquidation” risk is often overstated. MSTR doesn’t operate on margin the way traders do, and most of their debt is long-term and unsecured. mNAV below 1.0 may affect equity sentiment, but it doesn’t automatically translate into BTC selling pressure. Macro matters short term, but Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and long-term adoption still dominate the bigger picture

letsdrinktothat

I've stayed away from crypto stocks so far, it just seems like whatever business model they're using just adds another layer of uncertainty over the underlying value of the crypto they're involved in, so I really just don't know how to value them. But if we're really having a proper bear market, and e.g. MSTR starts trading at a significant discount, maybe I'll dip my toe in the waters.

Responsible-Laugh590

Yea retail is abandoning it and hype has died while institutions have been grabbing a share. So it’s basically becoming the opposite of what it’s designed for, and tons of shitty grifters have been lauding it all year. Not looking good for crypto right now. Also the question of whether quantum invalidates it. Make some money shorting it, it’s the best time for it. Been shorting MSTR all year and it’s been great :)

Correct_Maybe4545

You have GOT to be kidding me. Read a few books and keep stacking SATS. This is not a trade, this is getting a better asset than Fiat. I have stomached 6 figure swings. Do you truly understand what you have there? The more you study and truly grasp self sovereignty, and an absolute scarcity limit, you will sleep better in life. On a side note, you will be happy when Bitcoin "crashes" if you dollar cost average. Do yourself a favor and scoop up as much MSTR till you have IBS, and also keep stacking SATS.

Skeewampus

Whales yes, but the volatility that comes from MSTR, etfs , options on all the things, and futures is new. It has changed the game. BTC and all the things now based on it exist simply to trade.

jollierumsha

I only buy and hold, and occasionally sell btc. Shorting MSTR in the stock market can be lucrative though

Background-Day-4957

Bearish for the first two months of 2026. Current headwinds: 1. ⁠Bank of Japan recent rate hike. Waiting for Yen Carry Trade to play out. 2. ⁠Bank of Japan to start, in January 2026, “slowly” selling their long held ETFs, which will further decrease liquidity. 3. ⁠Morgan Stanley’s (not JP Morgan) decision on January 15 to possibly exclude from their MSCI indices DAT companies which hold more than 50% of their value in crypto, like MSTR. 4. ⁠MSCI review and changes to their indices on February 10th. 5. ⁠Possible prolonged government shutdown again over spending and healthcare subsidies. We saw what happened to the price of crypto in October and November during the previous shutdown. 6. ⁠Supreme Court ruling over legality of Trump’s emergency tariffs, resulting in increased volatility. Be patient and buy the dip.

VariatCA

...They haven't purchased anywhere close to the amount of BTC that has been mined since they began their purchases back in 2020. Even just from 2021 until the 2024 halving, there was ~328,500 BTC being mined every year, and about half that yearly rate since the last halving ~18 months ago or so. MSTR owns about 671,000 Bitcoin. They began purchasing back in August 2020. Since then, there were about *1,500,000* Bitcoin mined between then and now.

HSuke

At least it's not MSTR. Down 50% since the start of Millennia.

JeremyLinForever

I have this dilemma and I’m not sure if other people feel the same way - every time I get dividends from income Bitcoin ETFs, my mind tells me to plow it back into spot Bitcoin ETFs or just buy cold BTC, but my heart says to yolo that in double leveraged Bitcoin ETFs and MSTR…

devCheckingIn

Crypto stocks getting pummeled again while the overall market is green. Can't wait to see quarterly earnings for some of these guys like COIN and MSTR. I'm surprised analysts still have buy calls out for this stuff.

djihadmechekef

The 'Ponzi' label gets thrown around a lot whenever the premium on these treasury stocks cools down. But there's a huge difference between a bubble bursting and a valuation normalizing. MSTR and others aren't just 'holding' BTC; they are institutionalizing the adoption. As long as they keep stacking and the BTC supply remains capped, the mNAV heading toward 1 is just a healthier entry point, not the end of the model. Do you think we’ll ever see these companies trade at a discount to their holdings, or is the premium here to stay?

harvested

I wouldn't touch any corp except MSTR, they are the only bear-tested.

jarviez

That's funny. This is my story ... and yet it's not one of my alt accounts. Weird! 🤣😉 I will admit that buying into MSTR this summer has hurt me a lot.🤮 But I'm kinda used to it because I too watched my BTC purchased at 42K drop to 16K. ... But, never sold so doing fine. 😎

biba8163

> smart money are buying Smart Money is SHILLING. Tom Lee was appointed as chairman to BMNR for marketing reasons. He is a PAID SHILLER who got compensated 226,722 shares of BMNR. There is a proposal to give Tom Lee 4.5 Million more shares based on the criteria below. For instance, Tom Lee would get 1,000,000 shares (about $30 Million at today's price) when BMNR gets 5% of ETH whether ETH is $1K or $5K. And if BMNR stock hits $250K, Tom Lee would get about $250 Million. | Performance Criteria | Hurdle | Shares | |:-----------|------------:|:------------:| | Share of ETH | 4% | 500,000 | Share of ETH | 5% | 1,000,000 | BMNR Stock Price | $125 | 500,000 | BMNR Stock Price | $250 | 1,000,000 | BMNR Marketcap | $25 Billion | 500,000 | BMNR Marketcap | $50 Billion | 1,000.000 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/149315225026868?cik=1829311 If Tom Lee genuinely considers ETH the **"Biggest Macro Trade of the Next Decade"** then: - Why was he not screaming this in 2024 or before July 2025 when he was marketed as the chairman of BMNR? - Why has he not allocated a percentage to ETH in his OWN ETF, Fundstrat's flagship ETF? - Why is Tom Lee allocating to BTC in his very own ETF portfolio through MSTR and not have ANY exposure to ETH? - Why does he not even understand the basics of Ethereum and call it a fork of Bitcoin? https://grannyshots.com/holdings/ **No, Tom Lee suddenly started shilling the hell out of ETH since June 2025 because he was appointed Chairman of BMNR and is getting handsomely compensated to SHILL SHILL SHILL.**

Objective-Win7524

Just replace "Banks" with "MSTR"

sirbrow

Good points. Quantum is a long-horizon risk, but there are active proposals like BIP-360 to enable a post‑quantum migration path. BTC is mostly saved today, yet Lightning usage is growing—public capacity recently hit ~5,606 BTC. MSTR index pressure affects MSTR, not Bitcoin’s core rules.

poloace

Here is something of interest- I’m all team bitcoin. But I’ve realized a number of people have fled over to btc as apparently the mods here keep booting any convos that seem anyway negative towards bitcoin. I’m concerned about quantum computing Also concerned that we aren’t using bitcoin, just hoarding it. Also concerned about what happens as MSTR cools their buying in jeopardy of having their stock price drop and being excluded from different indices. Indeed, a lot is happening…. A lot of concern, but none of it is making its way to this subreddit bc of moderation.

TestNet777

TestNet777 predicts Bitcoin cycle break, crash in 2026 and bankruptcy of MSTR.

choconou

is the model of btc tc dead ? a few month ago , value of btc tc stocks rose each day, investors flocked to buy shares and convertible bonds . With that companies was buying btc , btc quantity was rising steadily , companies indicated previsions for btc they should own in the future . and people anticipated: they bought the share today for the value of the btc / share of the future , a future depending of the speed of increase of btc owned , from 200 days for recent companies to severals years for old companies as MSTR . nNAV reached value up to 10 , a creation of wealth from nothing of 9 times value of btc owned ! Now it’s more difficult to find investors and they are reluctant to buy shares falling almost everyday , and there is the btc fall. So speed of rise of btc owned falls and effect of anticipation falls also , mNAV falls and is quietly going to 1 . All wealth created from nothing dissipears , only management and some early investors earn something all the others lose money . And the question is now if price of share can go under mNAV =1 , value of 1 imply that company is liquidated , btc sold and money from them distributed to shareholders . But something all the people in place would prefer that company go on and pays them salaries and give free shares for many more years while selling btc . They will try to block liquidation , so people will see the quantity of owned btc and price of share decease.

Wanderlust-Bow

That’s a good summary, but the key risk people keep glossing over isn’t just MSCI exclusion or passive selling — it’s the reflexivity. MicroStrategy is effectively a leveraged BTC proxy at this point: stock down → equity issuance / debt optics worsen → sentiment pressure → more volatility than BTC itself. Works incredibly well in bull phases, but in prolonged drawdowns MSTR can underperform spot BTC by a lot. Anyone holding it should understand they’re not buying “Bitcoin”, they’re buying a highly convex, corporate-structured bet on Bitcoin with real balance-sheet and index risks layered on top.

ChaoticDad21

Fiat and MSTR shares have no bottom

elegant-jr

My question is why would anyone be buying crypto? Why not wait till MSTR collapses and is forced to liquidate? 

mathaiser

MSTR leaps.

SilverPrivateer

I did it. I became a bitcoiner weeks ago via MSTR and held through a big drop, nearly 10%. Came to this sub. Asked people how they weathered tough time, learned to WAGMI, diamond hand, and HODL. Upwards and onwards.

RetiredAvocado

I'm not a fan of this phrasing but meh, don't have much of a choice. I think Saylor started this. And he's thinking from his own circumstances, where he does not have custody of MSTR's bitcoin keys. It's quite cumbersome to say "I have custody of my bitcoin keys." So he said self-custody, and a few copycats picked up on it and now it's stuck. Self-custody is redundant when saying I have custody. Self is implied if you have it. And it's often verb-ified. Like "I self-custody my coins." Custody is not an action. It's something one has, not something one does. But language gets mangled all the time, for good or bad. Someone started saying "compute" instead of "computation" and oh boy do they sound pretentious. Saving 1/4 of a second noun-ifying a verb. "Grok uses 200K nvidia units for compute." I hear goobers on tech youtube saying it that way and like, brah, you ain't no Elon.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, is signaling another major Bitcoin purchase despite its stock (MSTR) declining by 43% year-to-date. The company currently holds 671,268 BTC, valued at $50.3 billion, and aims to lower its average cost basis while reinforcing its commitment to Bitcoin. However, it faces challenges, including potential removal from MSCI indices, which could trigger $11.6 billion in forced selling by passive funds. MicroStrategy defends its strategy, arguing against the MSCI proposal and emphasizing its dedication to Bitcoin despite market and regulatory pressures. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Romanizer

And MSTR has a lot of different shareholders, so you would have to break that down. It's technically like a leveraged ETF.

Acceptable_Main_5911

Yeah I started DCAing into a silver ETF SLV only for diversity and it’s nearly my biggest winner for the year. I don’t want to talk about MSTR or BTC yet.

AlphaCryptoHub

MSTR is buying non-stop — anyone else slowing down is just letting them pull ahead. In BTC, hesitation = lost ground. 🚀

Churn

Strategy (MSTR) keeps buying though. If the other BTC treasury companies slow down or stop, they will just fall further behind the company they followed.

longonbtc

I would just buy bitcoin. Even Saylor recommended buying bitcoin instead of MSTR.

Seattleman1955

I don't join groups. I have Bitcoin. The more mainstream it becomes the better. That's it. The groups are for the obsessed and they are usually undereducated and underinformed. Just read the post "Who are these people who are selling? Never sell!". If no one ever sold there would be no market and no value. Or "I love it when the market goes down because I can buy more". That's just because they have very little. No one who wants a strong market wants a market that is always going down. I don't go out of my way to talk about Bitcoin but I don't go out of my way to never mention it either. I treat it like any other financial subject. I'm all for it going more mainstream and growing. MSTR does bother me a bit because an informed person wouldn't buy it but it is what it is.

carlpocket

I feel we still haven't had a run. This bull was mainly MSTR and institutions front running everything. There wasn't an alt season. Sure XRP and Sol ran (but FCC and FTX made those make sense to go back to a normal price). Zcash recently ran. But almost everything else didnt come close to new highs (eth did get a few hundred above 2021). Many coins currently at 1 year lows. Its been weird seeing only bullshit memes from pump.fun run this cycle. I kinda feel alts been in a bear since last Christmas and we might see some start pumping early next year. If not it seems anyone here since 2017 or earlier would never touch an alt again.

Pegasis69

Unfortunately not. I still have a couple of Bitcoin and a decent amount of eth, but I lost a lot on shitcoins in the 2018 crash (still holding some of the dead coins 🥲). My crypto (and MSTR) is worth about 400k in total, so not bad for a 33 year old, but also not early retirement money just yet either.

Trader0721

I think it would be better for bitcoin long term if MSTR is forced to liquidate…it’s going to be hell during that time but also a hell of a buying opportunity

Master_Jee

I’m going to sound like a conspiracy theorist here, but I don’t think Strategy is a pure “Bitcoin adoption hero.” I think it’s a giant reflexive trade that’s slowly turning into a systemic risk for BTC’s market structure & Saylor is the Trojan horse. One corporate entity accumulating 3%+ of the total eventual supply (and growing) is not “decentralization is dead” in the protocol sense, but it absolutely does centralize price-impact risk, narrative risk, and forced-flow risk. People keep cheering the buys as if they’re inherently bullish, but the how matters: the position is being built and maintained through layers of capital markets instruments (preferreds, converts, ATMs, etc.). That stack sits above common, introduces obligations, and depends on continued access to funding + a market willing to price the equity/premium favorably. That’s fine in a regime where liquidity is easy and volatility is trending up. But in a regime where BTC chops sideways/down for long enough, or the premium collapses, or capital gets expensive, or index/passive flows change, that whole machine flips from “infinite bid” to “forced de-risking.” And forced de-risking doesn’t just hit MSTR shareholders; it hits BTC sentiment and liquidity because the market has anchored so much narrative to one balance sheet. So yeah, I’m calling it that this ends one of two ways, either they thread the needle forever, or eventually the capital structure becomes the story and the unwind becomes the event. Bitcoin doesn’t need a corporate savior. Turning BTC into a corporate treasury megatrade is how you manufacture a future crash catalyst, even if the underlying protocol is fine. Whist currently still bullish, I’m worried for the future of Bitcoin as a result.

Professional_Dog8408

MSTR was trading well below mNAV every bitcoin bear market and every time has significantly rebounded. Whats your point?

Str8truth

Strategy has overhead costs that BTC and ETPs don't have. Against those costs is the prospect of Strategy shares gaining Bitcoin Yield (BTC per share of MSTR).

EmbarrassedYak1110

If Bitcoin falls further, MSTR shares can falls faster

SilverPrivateer

Bitcoiner, I own share of MSTR which own bitcoin

jwz9904

you are a MSTR, not a bitcoiner

SilverPrivateer

This is tough. I recently became a bitcoiner via MSTR and it's a real test. I'm going to keep diamonds handing but man I can't believe some of you managed to get through multiple bear markets in order to get huge gains... hope I can join all of you guys in attaining glory.

EmbarrassedYak1110

MSTR losing market premium is best understood as a function of mNAV convergence rather than a loss of structural appeal. As Bitcoin’s price is more efficiently priced into MSTR’s net asset value, the equity behaves more like a leveraged, capital-accretive Bitcoin vehicle. Compared with GBTC which was historically plagued by redemption frictions and discount risk, MSTR’s structure remains fundamentally superior

angel22tg

last cycle there was no ETFs, no institutional buying, no government backing, no pro crypto president, no MSTR with 600k+ BTC, no sovereign funds buying, no countries buying...

rudgeyyy

To jump on the tax side of things, it’s the same in the Uk, we buy MSTR in our stocks and shares ISA to avoid capital gains tax. So that we buy ‘shares and etfs’, you fool. Enjoy playing your tax.

habbadee

I once owned over 250,000 shares of MSTR.

Tiny-Design-9885

MSTR and ETFs are dollar denominated. You buy these when you want to play in dollars. Or the intersection of where dollars and BTC meet. Bitcoin on the other hand is a different universe than the dollar. Just listen to the talking heads: are they talking about how much bitcoin you can get or are they talking about how many dollars you can get in the future. The one talking about dollars and the risk to your dollars doesn’t get the premise yet. This is good for those accumulating BTC.

jawni

>That works to a point, but if the situation gets severe I think it results in full meltdown. Doing this should be the more sustainable way, you're more likely going to get into full meltdown mode by making bad purchases. Share buybacks under mNAV help fight against that. >And MSTR holds such a massive share of the market, the waves would likely cause exchanges to start collapsing as well. It's gonna collapse even faster if mNav goes below 1 and they never buy back shares. >Everything depends on BTC being above MSTRs cost basis in 2027-2028 when they have to pay their debts. I think it will be. This is like buying a dollar for a dollar and change, instead of buying a stablecoin that you know is fully back by a dollar for a discount. But not over spending is how they'll be able to save money and you do that buy monitoring mNAV and buying whichever is undervalued, the shares or the underlying asset.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

It ain't over until $74K fails. That's the confirmation of a bear winter (lower cycle low). If you believe the cycle theory, then Q4 should be the beginning of the end. So there's a chance it's over and it's "see you in 4 years". It's not an exact science, so there is still roughly a little over a month for a new ATH or even mania rally and still be within the numbers for the cycle theory. If you believe more in fundamentals, then QE, M2 supply, rate cuts, ETFs, sovereign funds, tariffs scaled back, and even stimmy checks, all point to a potential break of cycle in 2026 and potentially more bullrun. If you believe in doom, then you're thinking whales are leaving a sinking ships, then ETFs are gonna panic, then all these funds and things like MSTR are gonna collapse and it's gonna be a total collapse.

TheRandomArtist

I thought it was pretty clear banks are trying to force Saylor into selling by shorting MSTR and BTC at the same time...? No one gives two shits whether you hold or sell. They need MSTR to be forced into a financial death spiral, so his holdings are released to all the institutions.

InternationalType218

I appreciate your opinion and I agree to an extent. I’ve held MSTR and FBTC in my IRA for a while since I can’t hold actual BTC there. MSTR and XXI have possibilities that real BTC doesn’t. Yes it’s a lottery ticket hoping that they succeed in creating something from their massive pile of BTC. I would still like to know how one website calculates mNAV for these two companies so differently. The MSTR number appears to be right while the XXI number looks like they used garbage numbers to calculate it. [the miscalculation](https://bitcointreasuries.net/public-companies/xxi)

glasser999

That works to a point, but if the situation gets severe I think it results in full meltdown. And MSTR holds such a massive share of the market, the waves would likely cause exchanges to start collapsing as well. Everything depends on BTC being above MSTRs cost basis in 2027-2028 when they have to pay their debts. I think it will be. The only thing separating MSTR from a ponzi is BTC going up forever. I hope Saylor is right, I think he is.

ComaKaho

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that includes the 500 largest American companies. These are companies that produce useful things like cars, for example. It's not based on hot air, unless MSTR is included. But we hope they'll be kicked out.

curveball21

I think we have to "peace out" MSTR. Only after Saylor gets nuked can we be truly free.

Business_Sand_3094

[$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) has bought over 21,000 [\#Bitcoin](https://x.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click) in December so far. Saylor is not slowing down.

Business_Sand_3094

[$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) has bought over 21,000 [\#Bitcoin](https://x.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click) in December so far. Saylor is not slowing down.

Business_Sand_3094

[$MSTR](https://x.com/search?q=%24MSTR&src=cashtag_click) has bought over 21,000 [\#Bitcoin](https://x.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click) in December so far. Saylor is not slowing down.

Equal_Classroom_4707

Dude, this has to be explained a million times a day. MSTR is in incredible shape to endure drastic BTC downturns. Source, Strategy and Saylor discuss the math ad nauseum.  Microstrategy leverage is not impacted by market price movements.  There is zero forced liquidation mechanisms. They can't be margin called. People don't seem to grasp that time and pressure is BTC's best friend, and strategy has all the time in the world with the way their debt is structured.  Everyone thinks in terms of margin, basic debt, leveraging, basic lending terms. None of those apply to strategy.