MSTR

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Oh my god there is so much gold here, thanks for this lol. This really illustrates how deeply delusional MSTR supporters have had to become now. Strategy has not failed? Their whole "strategy" was literally stacking BTC and never selling BTC. But now they're not doing that. And now they've switched to their new strategy of buy high and sell low lol. Wait, your whole argument is that it bounced back less than 2 years into their new Strategy of buying BTC? You realize they only started buying their first BTC in the middle of 2020, right? Also the whole hype train about MSTR started in 2024. 2022 was 2 years before the whole hype. But the one that takes the gold is your argument that "no they didn't have to, they chose to sell because they wanted to show that if they sold it wouldn't tank the market". So it wasn't because their stock was tanking, their profit per share was going into the negatives, or that STRC was unpegging too much for too long, or that they were hitting losses in the billions, or that their whole system was collapsing. It was because they wanted to do a social experiment to show that if they sell the price wouldn't go down? 🤣 That experiment seemed to have failed. They started to sell in the final week of May when the price was above $73K. Then the market tanked. The only reason it stopped tanking (other than always having a bounce when there is a drop this big), is because of the very bullish march of traditional markets into record territory. Plus the constant renewed hopes that the war with Iran might end.

xaviemb

I find every single negative take on Strategy is based on 'feelings' not lot logic. I'm genuinely baffled at how any half intelligent person could think Bitcoin goes up, and MSTR doesn't. MSTR is literally designed to push Bitcoin higher, and mathematically ride higher (in USD terms) than Bitcoin if it goes up an average of more than 12% annually. These are not opinions... it's just data/reality. For some reason the Bitcoin bear has decided they need a villain this cycle, turning things that are good for Bitcoin into boogeymen as a vent for their inability to simply enjoy the dip. Wise up.

Laukess

I don't really understand your reply. MSTR holders want Strategy to buy as much bitcoin as possible. STRC holders want Strategy to hold a fiat reserve so they can be paid out. Holding fiat and buying bitcoin are opposites. They've even started selling bitcoin to increase that fiat reserve. Right now they try to defend STRC, and grow their fiat holding. I understand why STRC holders want this. I don't understand why MSTR holders prefer that to them buying more bitcoin? >Because we believe in bitcoin long term Can you expand on this? Would those people not buy MSTR instead over STRC? I don't really feel like you answered my initial question. At it's core, I want to know why MSTR holders are happy with the pivot to STRC. Sounds like it's against their interest, and you even mention that being the case on the MSTR sub, so is that the answer? They aren't happy? The downvotes are because it sounds vaguely like a critique of Strategy? I don't feel like the question was bad or in bad fait. I have no interest in Strategy myself, but I think the focus to STRC is interesting. Seems like a great way to broaden the product so people who don't care about bitcoin can get access to a high dividend stock/product.

quintavious_danilo

but wasn’t it available through selected brokers like schwab and fidelity earlier under a different ticker? I remember people buying it early and the ticker was MCSTP not STRC. Here are user reporting buying it under $90 https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/s/GvRQkFAZ1M But yeah, I did some research and i confused STRC with STRK which had $80 IPO. My fault

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Going to? Strategy is already coming apart at the seams. MSTR has already dropped more than 80%. STRC still hasn't been able to peg back for the last 3 months despite all efforts. Strategy hasn't been able to buy BTC in 2 months. And now Strategy has had to break from its core "strategy" and has had to keep selling BTC to keep itself from spiraling too much.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

The cash reserve came from selling MSTR but it’s a cost associated with STRC. It absolutely counts against the BTC yield of STRC. They wouldn’t have needed a cash reserve otherwise.

CommercialDuck7496

Because we believe in bitcoin long term, and this drop doesn't really hurt us unless it stays like this for years. Why would this push us away from MSTR? Your expectation made complete sense before the release of STRC and the other prefs. My guess is he is only gonna raise maybe 4 or 5 more billion dollars through dilution or bitcoin sales, that would be enough to cover the convertible bonds. and dividends payments for over a year. By then STRC should also be back up to par, and the bitcoin buying can continue (at the bottom!) My feeling is that most MSTR holders despise STRC, or at least thats the vibe I get from the MSTR subreddit. But I have no real data to support that, and I myself hold more STRC than MSTR at the moment, although I plan to rotate into 90/10 MSTR/STRC over the next 10-14 months

sssssssssssssss5s

Why would BTC ever reach 250k? People spout insane numbers but have no explanation. Its nonsense. MSTR already pivoted away from their hold BTC and never sell strategy. The writing is on the wall, but you dont want to read it.

CommercialDuck7496

This is factually not true. They bought like 120k bitcoin from the proceeds of STRC, and have paid 620 million in dividends, at current prices that would be like 10k work of bitcoin, He would have 110k more bitcoin than he started with if you ignore everything else. MSTR will not forever be worse off from what they've done with STRC. they currently have a lower net bitcoin per share because the price of bitcoin has gone down, so the relative burden of the liabilities is increased as a percentage, and they've had to pay the dividends, but if bitcoin goes back up, it will be a net increase in bitcoin per share again. I ran you through the math in a different comment. but the STRC IPO shares have not lead to a permanent decline in net BTC per share, if bitcoin gets to 185k by the end of 2028, Even the IPO, which is the worst out of all of the STRC issuance, will be accretive.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

How are you getting the current break even level is 149k? Are you simply taking their buy price and adding the dividends to it? Because that is the wrong way to analyze it. MSTR has to pay out the dividend every two weeks, so you must take into account the price of Bitcoin at the time they have to pay out, that’s when the dilution happens. It’s like when you retire, you have to live off your portfolio and if your portfolio tanks in the first year you’re screwed even if in the longer term returns are higher than your withdrawals. MSTR screwed up the execution because they decided they needed to raise 3 years of dividend coverage AFTER Bitcoin tanked 50%. If the stock market tanked and then you sold afterwards to cover 3 years of living expenses. Your portfolio is now so small that you need insanely good returns just to not run out of money. That is what MSTR did. They retired, saw the market crash and then went to cash. The only reason it doesn’t look this way is because STRC is only a small part of the total.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

I don’t think you get what actually has happened because it’s obscured by the fact that they started with over 600k Bitcoin before they issued STRC. If they didn’t have any BTC to begin with and simply issued STRC at IPO they would have 0 Bitcoin at this point, so Bitcoin could go up 100% a year forever and it wouldn’t matter. MSTR will be forever worse off from what they’ve done with STRC so far because they waited until Bitcoin tanked and then raised 3 years worth of dividend coverage. If they had done it at the same time they bought the Bitcoin this wouldn’t be the case. And future issuance of STRC may be accretive long term depending on how quickly BTC appreciates. But the STRC IPO shares have already lead to a permanent decline in BTC per share.

CommercialDuck7496

It is, because MSTR is amplified bitcoin, if bitcoin goes up 2x, mstr can go up 4x. They don't operate inefficiently, their operating company profits like 80 million a year, and they increase their bitcoin per share over the long run, so the fact that there are more shares, isn't really telling the full story, by owning a share of their stock you end up with more bitcoin backing up each share than you started with. I agree that you should always factor in opportunity cost. but if the belief is that bitcoin is going to appreciate more than 15% per year, then MSTR just amplifies that, both are above the long term average of the sp500

WillingCurrent3663

You don’t get it. The people who invest in $STRC don’t want Bitcoin and they don’t want amplified Bitcoin in $MSTR. They are fixed-income investors who hurt want a high yield. It’s the largest liquid capital pool in the world, which is why Saylor sells $STRC to that massive market to accumulate more capital to buy Bitcoin with. The people who buy $MSTR are the ones who believe in Bitcoin. And they buy $MSTR vs Bitcoin because they understand the mechanics and that it’s a leveraged play on Bitcoin that outperforms BTC in bull markets.

WillingCurrent3663

MSTR is just an IQ test. Most folks just don’t have a high enough IQ to understand MSTR. In 1-3 years, $MSTR stock will be $700-$1,000+ per share easily. Save this message and watch it unfold from the window of your short bus.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

The stock would have appreciated more if they kept their original Bitcoin stack and didn’t issue STRC at all. MSTR share price can still rise if Bitcoin rises. That doesn’t mean issuing STRC was good for shareholders. They’re better off if MSTR just kept their original stack.

Laukess

I don't understand why this doesn't push away MSTR holders. Have they fully pivoted to STRC now? My expectation was always that they would be buying on the way up, not the way down, as that's where they can borrow the most money. But now they're also selling the bottom.

jwz9904

hail MSTR

SilverPrivateer

You all bit the hand that feeds. I warned all of you bitcoiners not to let MSTR fall beneath 1 MNAV or we would start our "stinky dumping" instead of buying. You would be at 20k without us... And now you poked the bear. Did you think we would not defend the dividend obligations? That we would not defend strike, stretch; and for you, perpetual strife? Did you think we would place the "HODL" ethos over shareholder value? This is your last warning. The MSTRarmy

PeaceAgitated1978

Exactly. Nice resume. All we shall look at is, first before anything else, does they plan to print money to debase the national debt. Yes. Then when? Then is the legislations, laws, support from Big money, clarity act is something.. but even without it. We still go up like moonshot if the last correction hit the reset has they wishes. Recovery will be spectacular. Can't happen without a finale. One last fireworks. And how they time it. With the flood's gates of newly minted stablescoin and $$.. is the true how fast will the recovery be. Just wait and see. Macro economics is financing BTC rise.. nothing else. That last cycle was lame because of how adoption been. And because not the same players were in the arena.. ETF and MSTR, versus gamblers over leveraged.. whales has been made in 2021.. now they ain't acting the same. They adapted to who is the biggest fish in the ponds. And it's not them, for most of them. 800 000 BTC all to one single entity. The same for ETF. Even bigger if you group them .. ok, it's just 20% of the 21 millions total supply. But don't forget the 4 millions BTC that never have moved and are estimated lost. Market volatility adapted .. these big entities are feeling bigger since we got some deads account loaded. In % of the whole. They understood that years ago. They control and manipulate BTC. Just by a lack of organization on our side. We totally still can GameStop the chart against them 🤣 only most of us don't share the same language.

rechtim

Time to buy MSTR or IBIT and chill

Frequent_Finance3904

MSTR & BMNR holder (do not trust myself with cold storage) in 2 different brokers (do not trust 100% the brokers)

_alkoshi_

I think your core point is right. At this point Strategy looks less like a BTC treasury and more like a leveraged Bitcoin degen. They raised expensive capital, bought BTC, and now have a large recurring $ cost attached to that position. Once they start selling BTC below cost to fund preferred dividends, any later purchase at a higher price just raise the real break-even higher as the realized loss is already locked in. Their published average BTC cost also misses the picture, because every year another $1B+ of preferred dividends has to be funded somehow. So BTC doesn’t just need to get back above Strategy’s purchase price, it needs to get there fast enough. If BTC goes sideways or even drops, time itself starts working against MSTR holders. I'm not sure how much time they have left until they can become liquidated to be honest.

RUYYRUYY

If Bitcoin doesn't appreciate soon, the MSTR vs STRC investors are going to go to war.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

lol I don't know about $20k. If cycles continue on the same course, $40K sure. Maybe $30K if exchanges and crypto banks run into major problems and if ETFs start to panic. $20K, maybe if MSTR shits the bed and we get a Luna/FTX level event.

xrv01

i’m a Bitcoin maximalist and every day I hope for the collapse for MSTR & Saylor’s stack. he is the biggest threat to Bitcoin

Medical-Lecture-6053

MSTR mods are ghey ban any bearish people posting logic.

DavidHobby

MSTR exists to ensure that the holders of the preferreds get to eat.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

If their gross Bitcoin per common share is now less AND there is 10 billion in senior claims added what does that mean? Gross Bitcoin per share is the upper limit of how much each common share can lay claim to. Gross Bitcoin per share is down and they’ve added more claims ahead of common shareholders so that means net Bitcoin per share is down even more. Using gross is nice because it acts as the best case scenario, whereas net is dependent on Bitcoins price so it changes all the time regardless of what the company does. Using CEBE is flawed because of exactly what has happened with MSTR. They issued leverage and bought high. The price tanked and they deleveraged. Fundamentally that is always bad, yet by using CEBE as your framework for decisions, it said every move the company made was accretive. Explain to me how a company can only make moves that are accretive and wind up in a worse spot? They can only do that if the framework they use to measure what’s accretive is flawed.

CatsBeerGardenCoffee

MSTR is not Bitcoin.

kenseyx

MSTR investment rationale 101: Give me money, I'll pay ridiculous yield. How will you pay ridiculous yield? Because we invest in superior asset. Why wouldn't I invest in the superior asset directly then? Because superior asset can go to hell. If superior asset goes to hell, how are you paying ridiculous yield? Superior asset won't go to hell.

Ok-Amphibian3164

MSTR has outperformed BTC returns since they adopted the Crypto reserve strategy and moved strictly from a software company. End of discussion. This will continue YOY.

A1JX52rentner

It boggles my mind that people compare MSTR to LUNA.

NivekIyak

MSTR is such a joke, doesn’t stan for anything now, it can go bust for all i care

anonuemus

I don't really see the problem with Saylor. He made mistakes like we all did at some point (buy high, sell low). Yes, STRC is borderline, but in general he aligns with bitcoin and if bitcoin keeps going on, like many of us believe, then MSTR will be good in the future. Even if he somehow fucks this company up, the interest in MSTRs bitcoin is still there.

mikkeltaylor1

Bitcoin isn’t available in a tax free account for some people like me. MSTR has also proven to outperform Bitcoin

mikkeltaylor1

MSTR is available to people like me in a tax free account, bitcoin is not. MSTR out performs Bitcoin as it’s been proven to do so. Not sure I see your argument…..

Big-Finding2976

In the UK we can't buy crypto ETFs in a tax-free ISA, so our choices are either buy BTC and pay tax or buy a company like MARA or MSTR in an ISA. A couple of SIPP (pension) providers let us buy crypto ETNs that are listed on the LSE, like BTC1, WBTC and IB1T, and there are some tax advantages doing that but we have to pay income tax when drawing down the pension, apart from the the first 25% of the pot which we can take tax-free.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

He banned me from MSTR and blocked me. Doubt he’s coming into this thread. Basically called me a troll for suggesting that even if you think BTC can grow dramatically in the long term that STRC had still be a drag on common shareholders. Which after only 1 year is already true. It doesn’t matter how much Bitcoin increases per year from here on out, the damage STRC has done to common shareholders can’t be recover. Common shareholders have lost Bitcoin per share because of STRC already and they are still on the hook for 1.2 billion a year. Bitcoin per share will keep dropping forever based on the STRC already issued.

JeromePowellLovesMe

Will MSTR even be in the MSCI by then?

macready26

Get into MSTR preferred stock STRC pays 12% dividend yield monthly or Strive ASST pays 13% daily dividend. That way you can still participate in Bitcoin

ALth0r

They are not gonna manage STRC. At the moment it's propped up by selling btc or with share dilution, so at the cost of MSTR shareholders whom will lode confidence in the product with time if it keeps happening. STRC was a terrible idea. I don't need complex structure to understand that giving interest from something that doesn't generate interest is a terrible idea.

shsususysgwhwisuhdhs

Even if believe in BTC, there is no mechanism for MSTR to give BTC to the shareholders. The only way shareholders make money is if MSTR sells BTC and returns the capital to the shareholders via a dividend or share buyback. I don't see how they can do that without tanking the price below their average.

PriorLeast3932

The bear case is the market will wash MSTR out

Ok-Amphibian3164

Can't wait to see the all the haters sit idle while watching MSTR crush Bitcoin YOY returns.

Rock_Strongo

It's somewhat funny because I would be willing to bet a lot of people in here have bags that are down way more, percentage-wise, than Saylor is right now. His strategy could collapse and go to 0 before the next bull run. But if there is another bull run anywhere in the not-distant future in all likelihood MSTR will be fine. I still wouldn't touch the stock myself though.

gizram84

> In the cryptocurrency space, MSTR is the last place you should be putting your money If argue it goes: Bitcoin (self custody), Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin (exchange), MSTR, STRK, Ethereum, all other shitcoins. In that order. Yes MSTR sucks, but the average person will make so much more money in MSTR than any of the shitcoins they "iNvESt" in

CarobBrave8898

Relax guys, Microstrategy will be next cycles bottom signal. We just had the coldcard incident, MSTR will fold sometime in 2030 giving us time to act like the pros we are 😎

HSuke

> husband in denial after walking in on his wife with another man No kink shaming. Some MSTR holders enjoy the cuck chair watching STRC get buybacks.

Lordofthewhales

I remember reading a lot of posts on Reddit from people who had moved their entire pensions into MSTR last year when the stock was flying... Remember kids, don't gamble with your retirement fund.

1dabaholic

MSTR failing will be the mt gox, FTX, bitconnect, etc of this cycle

PrestondeTipp

Every argument I've ever heard in favour of MSTR has actually been an argument for Bitcoin. In the cryptocurrency space, MSTR is the last place you should be putting your money. Idiotic, cash burning decisions seem to happen almost weekly.

TheRadishBros

Really promising to see price hold up in light of the MSTR selling.

TheGreatCryptopo

 MSTR not practicing what they preach.

PureCod9290

MSTR is like a Nigerian prince scheme. Anyone who listens to the basic business "model" and doesn't immediately think it's the stupidest thing they've ever heard are invited to be bagholders. Like spelling mistakes in an email the stupidity of the scheme self selects regards

PrestondeTipp

You're right about the strength of convertibles. I think the problem is that the debt market doesn't exist for MSTR anymore. No one would buy convertibles, certainly not at 0%.

PrestondeTipp

Bitcoin being worth more in the future is a good argument for investing in Bitcoin. Not a strong argument for investing in MSTR, which operates inefficiently, burns cash, and dilutes shareholders. Investors may need to wonder how much opportunity cost they are willing to incur while alternatives like the SP500 are sitting on record years. 

Worldx22

Don't stop. Some exposure to MSTR may be in order.

HSuke

Pretty sure it's the exact opposite. Microstrategy also increased the reserves to $4.6B by selling/diluting $653M of MSTR. They don't need such large reserves unless they're planning to pay back debt. The $1.5B 2029 convertible bonds have their earliest call date on Dec 4, 2026 (in just 4 months), which is the earliest the Microstrategy can pay off the debt. I suspect Microstrategy is building up a reserve for the option to pay back the bonds early.

HSuke

Well this is interesting. Microstrategy increased the reserves to $4.6B, which is much higher than what they had before STRC collapsed in late June. The $1.5B 2029 convertible bonds have a put date on Dec 4, 2026 (in just 4 months), which is the earliest the holders can sell. **Its bond holders would earn $672.40 per share instead of the current MSTR market price of $95**, which is insanely good for the bond holders and bad for Microstrategy. I suspect Microstrategy is building up a reserve to buffer against when that bond holder inevitably sells.

Delicious-Income9893

OP, you are not alone. I know a nice, bright guy who hit it BIG with Game Stop. We bonded over a mutual interest in crypto for him, Bitcoin and MSTR for me. Plowed the earnings into leveraged shitcoin trading. Last I heard from him he was 100 to 1 on Fart Coin, and then later swore Bittensor was the thing. I just cringed. Poor guy. I don’t think it’s gone well, because I stopped hearing from him.

BitPulse_

Waiting for $75 is risky because MSTR's valuation moves with its BTC reserves and mNAV. Tracking this on my model (**BitPulse** \- www.bitpulse.digital), MSTR vs BTC sits at a **Z-Score of -1.19** (historical equilibrium/discount zone). BTC actually leads MSTR on a 5Y view (+41% vs +30%, R=0.930). If deploying $80k, I’d use a hybrid plan: • **30% now** (mNAV at fair value) • **40% reserved** for deeper discount (Z-Score < -1.5) • **30% dry powder** Focusing on mNAV bands beats guessing fixed stock prices.

Generationhodl

Same, 1-2 years ago when he started focusing on Saylor, MSTR and then BIP110, I lost interest in his stuff.

Romanizer

Maybe you should try to look at more than just charts if you want to be a trader/investor. I don't really care about MSTR as a stock, but there's more about a company than their stock price.

Monster213213

In 176% up in 3 years, just plow income into an ISA (tax free UK), and 80% of my portfolio is in Apple google meta MSFT My average for MSTR is 118, so significant assymetic upside. Spend about 15 mins on stocks a week and the rest of my life earning or having fun. Doing ok bud.

UC_DiscExchange

> Whether we want to talk about it from a business perspective or from a community perspective, it's all bad. This is what we fundamentally disagree on. Prior to Bitcoin the company had no positive outlook for the company. Their software was a drain with no avenue of recovery. Regardless of today's price there exists an actual possibility of being a longstanding successful, which flat out didn't exist prior. That's it. > Since the crux of your position relies on looking at MSTR as a good company and Saylor as a good CEO Quote me on either of these statements. You love to assume the other person's positions. Whether he's made a good or bad move is to be determined. Calling it bad because Bitcoin entered a bear market is equally misguided as viewing him as a visionary. What I will say is he successfully turned a poorly performing company known as a dot com disaster into every investors vocabulary. For better or worse will be judged in the years to come, not the past year. As for his impact on Bitcoin, I think it's neutral. Concentration of ownership can eventually be bad, but 4% isn't even notable in relative markets of finite goods.

R50cent

Yea but again my guy the argument is about whether or not Saylor contributed anything to bitcoin and it saving him is not that argument, but sweep it aside. Let's talk about what you wanna talk about. They made a ton of money switching their entire company from software to being a 'bitcoin treasury company', yea that brought a lot of institutional money in. Institutional money. Retail traders were historically an incredibly small footprint in MSTR, so in regards to 'cui bono', it wasn't bitcoin investors, it was regular investors looking to dip a toe in the water through an intermediary, and boy did they... and boy did most of them leave, handing the bag to late term investors who were... survey says... retail. But that's not what you're trying to talk about, you want to know specifically if market cap bigger now than before. Sure was. I'm glad you have one hill that you want to stay on. It's a good one for you, and it's why you ironically point out that I stuck to my guns as being a big ol issue while ignoring yourself doing the same. But again, no worries at all. By 2025 retail investment was around half of the company, so the bitcoin world in terms of smaller investors took not only a big hit from losing value from their bitcoin, but those of them that doubled down lost just as much other the past year from their MSTR holdings. Whether we want to talk about it from a business perspective or from a community perspective, it's all bad. A single company holding 4 percent of the worlds bitcoin is *bad* for the community, at least in regards to what it used to be about, but maybe you weren't there or don't remember or don't care to, but there's one aspect. Since the crux of your position relies on looking at MSTR as a good company and Saylor as a good CEO, let's again walk it out objectively and see. No mean words... just objective numbers. They are currently listed as a Mid level Cap stock with a market cap of 33.14 billion dollars. They missed their Q4 earnings by 45.90 cents, Q1 of 2026 by 31.34, and Q2 by 17.25. They have no forward p/e ratio because they make no money. 52 percent of the company is institutionally held which is a 30 percent increase over the past 6 years. The overall percentages of outstanding shares being shorted by the market sits at 11.34 percent. Their 5 year valuation stands at an increase of 30.67 dollars a share, marking a 42.13 percent increase for anyone who invested during August of 2021. Their 1 year valuation sits at a loss of 283.40 dollars a share, marking a loss of 73.92 percent for anyone who invested during August of 2025. The companies current trajectory for the week is up at 7.23 percent but remains down for the month at -.74% and down for the past 6 at -25.88%. Since 2020 the company has issued approximately 291.7 million basic shares, increasing the amount of existing shares (95.9M) to 387.6 million, or a 304.31 percent increase, translating to a 75.27 percent share ownership dilution per previously issued share. Now for the less objective. If you showed me that information I wouldn't touch that company with a ten foot pole, but that's just me. It's very easy to talk about what Saylor has done for the company when Bitcoin was doing well, but let's see how he does not that it's a bear market, his company has a market cap of 33 billion and an outstanding debt of 21.1 billion between convertible debt and perpetual preferred stock. Hey but again, as was always an option, you feel how you want. I'm going to keep saying that the writing is on the wall and that that guy's another Trump, Hoskinson... name your grifter. He's one of them. But we can disagree.

UC_DiscExchange

It's hilarious how emotional you are about this. > No it quite literally isn't and I tried explaining that, so it's super fun that you'd try to project that You're rebuttal in every comment is to look at a one year chart. You haven't addressed what I brought up(that Strategy was slowly bleeding money prior to Bitcoin) at all. > I think you're another person upset that I might come and take the piss out of something you otherwise laud, and hey, that happens. I don't care about MSTR one way or another. You act like pointing out that it **massively** benefitted his company means I must be neck deep in it. > So how much money did you lose on MSTR so far? $0. How much enjoyment did you get out of fantasizing about a strangers hypothetical investments?

R50cent

> To you the "entire picture" is always only a one year chart and you call others myopic. No it quite literally isn't and I tried explaining that, so it's super fun that you'd try to project that. It's like you didn't read what I wrote at all lol. Implied by omission. You didn't bring it up because it wasn't pertinent to the argument you were trying to make, which I get, but the context of it sure is damning. >Again, how Bitcoin has moved since ATH is a completely different conversation that is not something Saylor has control over. Again, context is context is context, and here the context was about the value of MSTR, not the value of bitcoin, but I get why you might not get how that's part of the criticism. Bitcoin moving drastically... shocker! effects the company that only has said asset as the driving force behind the company's value. And no bud... the entire conversation WAS NOT about 'was bitcoin good for his company' it was about whether Michael Saylor has contributed anything positive to bitcoin, or rather, what was his biggest contribution... which is why I argued that he was nothing but damaging, and then laid out my reasoning for why. You disagree? TOTALLY FINE BUD. Good to know, but if you want me to change my mind along with you then you'd better find a better argument or I'll just keep listing off all the reasons why I disagree.

Monster213213

Is your time horizon 5 years? 3 months? A snapshot? Are you a trader? I firmly believe in BTC and with that firmly believe MSTR will succeed and be one of the largest companies in the world - whether 5, 10 or 25 years

R50cent

Depends on where you bought, but feel free to go look at the chart and tell me where the smart investment happened during the bitcoin jump for MSTR. Something something 'catching knives in the market'. If you didn't bail out of MSTR around a year ago, you're sucking wind.

zenethics

You're right. The only option for storage in 2026 is some startup with 3.5 million in revenue and 5 employees. You _have_ to use coldcard because your favorite podcaster told you to. Nevermind Trezor, Ledger, Coinbase, the ETF, MSTR. When it comes to self custody for substantial funds, the only real choice is to go off the beaten path and to use something a bootstrapped startup made with low funding. The podcast cold storage startup was the smartest choice. The only choice, when you think about it.

nachtraum

Actually, if you have bad news like millions of $100 got hacked, and MSTR selling thousands of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin price is neutral, this is often a good bullish sign. For example at the end of 2022, Bitcoin just dropped from 22K to 15K in the FTX aftermath. Then there were a bunch of further bad news coming out but price didn't care. It signaled the bottom of the cycle. Not saying it is assured we are the bottom, but feels good.

Different-Guess8999

Move your MSTR shares off exchanges people

botford80

To prove that he can. Critics of Strategy say that he is so deep into btc that he can't sell any of it and is stuck holding. He sells chunks of btc to prove to the critics that his strategy is actually sound and will not tank btc price or MSTR. Basically a proof of concept.

SilverPrivateer

You all bit the hand that feeds. I warned all of you bitcoiners not to let MSTR fall beneath 1 MNAV or we would start our "stinky dumping" instead of buying. You would be at 20k without us... And now you poked the bear. Regards, The MSTRarmy

zenethics

My idea was to track the performance for people who got involved in BTC early on their non-BTC ideas. The idea here is that this might be visionaries that see trends before others do (like, maybe they get involved in AI early too). Once a company has 50%+ of NAV in BTC their performance is going to echo that of BTC. It looks like the only candidate that fits the theory is Elon Musk. Michael Saylor is great too, but in a portfolio holding MSTR goes in the "hard money / BTC exposure" bucket whereas TSLA or SPCX would fit in other buckets like "risk growth" or something and filling the other buckets was where my mind was. So, not an argument that MSTR is a bad investment or anything, more of a question of diversifying into something with good management who also have a worldview that understands BTC but whose success or failure isn't largely tied to BTC (here, the low BTC allocation is a plus not a minus - a plus because they own some, and a plus because it's not too much and I can tune my own exposure by having my own BTC proxy bucket).

cuteman

None of what you describe exists It's either MSTR or a company that holds a small portion of assets/cash in BTC or other crypto

zenethics

It doesn't work for a few reasons. 1. The goal would be to track companies whose management understood Bitcoin early, not to track BTC directly (tracking BTC directly is easy) 2. MSTR's operating business is tiny to the point of being irrelevant 3. MSTR isn't even a holding company really, it's more like Saylor's hedge fund where who knows what he'll do next

cuteman

I mean you're the one who wanted to observe a "bitcoin-holder only portfolio would look like performance wise" and MSTR is the closest thing on the planet aside from something like Coinbase

ProperSyllabub8798

BTC is dead. There is no Safeway to hold your coins. Get out before the whales like MSTR crowd the exit

BigBigMooney

MSTR and STRC are in a “death spiral”

markphillips401

So, the same thing traders do. MSTR has turned into a Bitcoin trading company as opposed to a Bitcoin acquisition company.

cuteman

Is that not MSTR?

cuteman

Is that not MSTR?

Lefties_TheWorst7331

Saylor said *you* should never sell your BTC. Saylor is busy trying to get MSTR included into the SP500, and to do so, they need to look more like a company and less like a digital asset. On record ≠ old ass interviews? BTC has been going up on the news of his selling, so I'll take it..

More-Translator9074

Boycott MSTR

DrApricot

The Coldcard theft is a PR disaster for Bitcoin, and may do permanent damage to its franchise. If MSTR and the Bitcoin EFTs were smart, they’d get together a syndicate and buy Coinkite and refund everyone’s stolen coins. They have all made huge bets on the future of Bitcoin. It would also demonstrate to bitcoiners that they are not opposed to safe self-custody when it’s done right.

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

I know funds and RIAs are clear to HIFO but I wonder when a general corporate like MSTR runs into issues Like you say, it's probably de factor HIFO through a spec ID methodology that they don't as such

Leithm

I think people underestimate how much crypto’s fortune is tied to Bitcoin and how much Bitcoin’s fortune is tied to MSTR. Also how close MSTR came to forced liquidation of much more Bitcoin.  However I think they are out of the woods for now. They have shown how easily they can raise money.  Lets say they get to 5 Bln cash (already at 4 bln) they will have over 3 years of coverage for STRC. Add the interest on their cash and a reduction of dividend to 10-11% they will have about 4 years of coverage. STRC will increase to par, and any more sales they generate at par will strengthen their balance sheet further. They already own 4% of  the supply so don’t  ever really need to buy any more, so will be able to do nothing and watch BTC rise. 

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

Why did you reply to me twice [I already confirmed to you that yes, if you had invested in MSTR 4 years ago you made a great trade selling today](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR/). Personally I would've just bought native BTC 4 years ago, but maybe you're not comfortable with that and so you sought out the publicly listed equity that holds BTC exposure for you. I think perhaps you're a bit out of your depth when it comes to thinking about PNL or corporates or investing in equity markets.

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

Well, yes - if you invested in MSTR 4 years ago you probably bought shares around $32 in early August 2022 and it's trading around $94 today. So your cost basis in 100 shares you bought for $3200 would've been $32/share, which you now sell for $94 per share giving you a total proceeds of $9400. $9400 - $3200 = $6200 profit you made over 4 years, which will be taxable in the US under LT capital gains rates of 20% so you owe a tax bill of $1240 out of the $9400 total proceeds you brought down. So correct, no problem for you - it was a great trade. Accounting aside, do you just...not know how things work?

Usual_Suspect8663

Saylor won’t go bankrupt, odds are in the next cycle MSTR is 3x from here and everyone is saying he’s a genius

cchackal

you can get exposure via IBIT/MSTR or maybe use coinbase?

alfredonoodles

MSTR has $8 billion cash on hand and hold 820k Bitcoin, they sold 1800, the same as the coldcard hack.

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

Yeah it does seem MSTR uses spec ID (haven't found a note recently but in their 2005 10K lmao; don't want to dig too deep on the subway home and doubt i'll open the laptop at home) Would be curious if they can elect HIFO as a corporate, even though there's exceptions for crypto (would they have to use HIFO for all other capital gains then? probably not, prob overthinking). I'd bet they just flattened the PNL as best possible and just have some gnarly lot tracking process set up, since they're not active traders and generally transact in one direction in one symbol

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

They absolutely pieces of inventory, and those units of inventory for accounting exercises like this are the tax-lots tracked by the cost at which they were acquired. They certainly are functionally identical, but he's got various tax lots where he acquired at a per-coin cost of $12K, up to probably $125K. When he sells some for proceeds at a $60K per-coin, he can select the oldest tax lost basis to relieve (FIFO) which gives him a gain on the tx, or the newest lot (LIFO) which is the most recent lot he bought, or he can use a weighted average approach which is burdensome, or a specific ID approach (which sounds like what MSTR does - spec ID) which is burdensome for a different reason All the different relief methodologies do is change the recognition timing of PNL (hence why they use spec ID, they probably match cost lots closely to the proceeds of their sale to minimize realized PNL).

Ok_Subject_2447

And MSTR selling Bitcoin in order to survive

fan_of_hakiksexydays

>Do you genuinely believe that MSTR will be worth less than it's underlying Bitcoin in a bull run? Absolutely, since it's currently worth $20B less than its underlying BTC fund. That's because the stock doesn't buy you BTC. It's tied to the share of the company not Bitcoin itself. And the shares are used as a form of raising capital. And they can get diluted. You also can't control when Bitcoin is sold. So for all you know, they're gonna end up getting sold at $30K a coin. Not to mention that Strategy's average BTC cost them $75K. Also, we have to assume that there will be a bullrun again. And looking at the last bullrun, even if we get another one, it might be even more muted and disapointing.

UC_DiscExchange

> You do realize that the stock still dropped 80% despite BPS increasing 56% right? Yes because it's a leveraged position so MNAV drops with the hype. This isn't the gotcha you think it is. > So increase in BPS doesn't guarantee the stock increase. Unless MNAV goes negative, which is a ridiculous long-term assertion, the stock will rise correlative to Bitcoin. Historically MNAV spikes with Bitcoin. Do you genuinely believe that MSTR will be worth less than it's underlying Bitcoin in a bull run? If so, hammer those shorts.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

>It wouldn't because Bitcoin per share has increased. BPS has increased 56% since then, so Bitcoin doesn't have to hit ATH for MSTR to reach it's ATH., assuming MNAV is the same That's not how any of this works lol. You do realize that the stock still dropped 80% despite BPS increasing 56% right? So increase in BPS doesn't guarantee the stock increase. The only reason the stock goes up is if people WANT to buy it. You can increase BPS 200%, if people don't want to buy MSTR, it could go actually go down another -20% instead. People bought MSTR because of hype. That same hype will need to return next bull cycle. And in a big way. Otherwise, it's gonna do the same thing alt coins do. And just like alt coiners they're gonna go "but why isn't it going back to ATH", "but it has higher upside", "but there's X and Y fundamentals and reasons it should go back higher".