MSTR

HSuke

Pretty sure it's the exact opposite. Microstrategy also increased the reserves to $4.6B by selling/diluting $653M of MSTR. They don't need such large reserves unless they're planning to pay back debt. The $1.5B 2029 convertible bonds have their earliest call date on Dec 4, 2026 (in just 4 months), which is the earliest the Microstrategy can pay off the debt. I suspect Microstrategy is building up a reserve for the option to pay back the bonds early.

HSuke

Well this is interesting. Microstrategy increased the reserves to $4.6B, which is much higher than what they had before STRC collapsed in late June. The $1.5B 2029 convertible bonds have a put date on Dec 4, 2026 (in just 4 months), which is the earliest the holders can sell. **Its bond holders would earn $672.40 per share instead of the current MSTR market price of $95**, which is insanely good for the bond holders and bad for Microstrategy. I suspect Microstrategy is building up a reserve to buffer against when that bond holder inevitably sells.

Delicious-Income9893

OP, you are not alone. I know a nice, bright guy who hit it BIG with Game Stop. We bonded over a mutual interest in crypto for him, Bitcoin and MSTR for me. Plowed the earnings into leveraged shitcoin trading. Last I heard from him he was 100 to 1 on Fart Coin, and then later swore Bittensor was the thing. I just cringed. Poor guy. I don’t think it’s gone well, because I stopped hearing from him.

BitPulse_

Waiting for $75 is risky because MSTR's valuation moves with its BTC reserves and mNAV. Tracking this on my model (**BitPulse** \- www.bitpulse.digital), MSTR vs BTC sits at a **Z-Score of -1.19** (historical equilibrium/discount zone). BTC actually leads MSTR on a 5Y view (+41% vs +30%, R=0.930). If deploying $80k, I’d use a hybrid plan: • **30% now** (mNAV at fair value) • **40% reserved** for deeper discount (Z-Score < -1.5) • **30% dry powder** Focusing on mNAV bands beats guessing fixed stock prices.

Generationhodl

Same, 1-2 years ago when he started focusing on Saylor, MSTR and then BIP110, I lost interest in his stuff.

Romanizer

Maybe you should try to look at more than just charts if you want to be a trader/investor. I don't really care about MSTR as a stock, but there's more about a company than their stock price.

Monster213213

In 176% up in 3 years, just plow income into an ISA (tax free UK), and 80% of my portfolio is in Apple google meta MSFT My average for MSTR is 118, so significant assymetic upside. Spend about 15 mins on stocks a week and the rest of my life earning or having fun. Doing ok bud.

UC_DiscExchange

> Whether we want to talk about it from a business perspective or from a community perspective, it's all bad. This is what we fundamentally disagree on. Prior to Bitcoin the company had no positive outlook for the company. Their software was a drain with no avenue of recovery. Regardless of today's price there exists an actual possibility of being a longstanding successful, which flat out didn't exist prior. That's it. > Since the crux of your position relies on looking at MSTR as a good company and Saylor as a good CEO Quote me on either of these statements. You love to assume the other person's positions. Whether he's made a good or bad move is to be determined. Calling it bad because Bitcoin entered a bear market is equally misguided as viewing him as a visionary. What I will say is he successfully turned a poorly performing company known as a dot com disaster into every investors vocabulary. For better or worse will be judged in the years to come, not the past year. As for his impact on Bitcoin, I think it's neutral. Concentration of ownership can eventually be bad, but 4% isn't even notable in relative markets of finite goods.

R50cent

Yea but again my guy the argument is about whether or not Saylor contributed anything to bitcoin and it saving him is not that argument, but sweep it aside. Let's talk about what you wanna talk about. They made a ton of money switching their entire company from software to being a 'bitcoin treasury company', yea that brought a lot of institutional money in. Institutional money. Retail traders were historically an incredibly small footprint in MSTR, so in regards to 'cui bono', it wasn't bitcoin investors, it was regular investors looking to dip a toe in the water through an intermediary, and boy did they... and boy did most of them leave, handing the bag to late term investors who were... survey says... retail. But that's not what you're trying to talk about, you want to know specifically if market cap bigger now than before. Sure was. I'm glad you have one hill that you want to stay on. It's a good one for you, and it's why you ironically point out that I stuck to my guns as being a big ol issue while ignoring yourself doing the same. But again, no worries at all. By 2025 retail investment was around half of the company, so the bitcoin world in terms of smaller investors took not only a big hit from losing value from their bitcoin, but those of them that doubled down lost just as much other the past year from their MSTR holdings. Whether we want to talk about it from a business perspective or from a community perspective, it's all bad. A single company holding 4 percent of the worlds bitcoin is *bad* for the community, at least in regards to what it used to be about, but maybe you weren't there or don't remember or don't care to, but there's one aspect. Since the crux of your position relies on looking at MSTR as a good company and Saylor as a good CEO, let's again walk it out objectively and see. No mean words... just objective numbers. They are currently listed as a Mid level Cap stock with a market cap of 33.14 billion dollars. They missed their Q4 earnings by 45.90 cents, Q1 of 2026 by 31.34, and Q2 by 17.25. They have no forward p/e ratio because they make no money. 52 percent of the company is institutionally held which is a 30 percent increase over the past 6 years. The overall percentages of outstanding shares being shorted by the market sits at 11.34 percent. Their 5 year valuation stands at an increase of 30.67 dollars a share, marking a 42.13 percent increase for anyone who invested during August of 2021. Their 1 year valuation sits at a loss of 283.40 dollars a share, marking a loss of 73.92 percent for anyone who invested during August of 2025. The companies current trajectory for the week is up at 7.23 percent but remains down for the month at -.74% and down for the past 6 at -25.88%. Since 2020 the company has issued approximately 291.7 million basic shares, increasing the amount of existing shares (95.9M) to 387.6 million, or a 304.31 percent increase, translating to a 75.27 percent share ownership dilution per previously issued share. Now for the less objective. If you showed me that information I wouldn't touch that company with a ten foot pole, but that's just me. It's very easy to talk about what Saylor has done for the company when Bitcoin was doing well, but let's see how he does not that it's a bear market, his company has a market cap of 33 billion and an outstanding debt of 21.1 billion between convertible debt and perpetual preferred stock. Hey but again, as was always an option, you feel how you want. I'm going to keep saying that the writing is on the wall and that that guy's another Trump, Hoskinson... name your grifter. He's one of them. But we can disagree.

UC_DiscExchange

It's hilarious how emotional you are about this. > No it quite literally isn't and I tried explaining that, so it's super fun that you'd try to project that You're rebuttal in every comment is to look at a one year chart. You haven't addressed what I brought up(that Strategy was slowly bleeding money prior to Bitcoin) at all. > I think you're another person upset that I might come and take the piss out of something you otherwise laud, and hey, that happens. I don't care about MSTR one way or another. You act like pointing out that it **massively** benefitted his company means I must be neck deep in it. > So how much money did you lose on MSTR so far? $0. How much enjoyment did you get out of fantasizing about a strangers hypothetical investments?

R50cent

> To you the "entire picture" is always only a one year chart and you call others myopic. No it quite literally isn't and I tried explaining that, so it's super fun that you'd try to project that. It's like you didn't read what I wrote at all lol. Implied by omission. You didn't bring it up because it wasn't pertinent to the argument you were trying to make, which I get, but the context of it sure is damning. >Again, how Bitcoin has moved since ATH is a completely different conversation that is not something Saylor has control over. Again, context is context is context, and here the context was about the value of MSTR, not the value of bitcoin, but I get why you might not get how that's part of the criticism. Bitcoin moving drastically... shocker! effects the company that only has said asset as the driving force behind the company's value. And no bud... the entire conversation WAS NOT about 'was bitcoin good for his company' it was about whether Michael Saylor has contributed anything positive to bitcoin, or rather, what was his biggest contribution... which is why I argued that he was nothing but damaging, and then laid out my reasoning for why. You disagree? TOTALLY FINE BUD. Good to know, but if you want me to change my mind along with you then you'd better find a better argument or I'll just keep listing off all the reasons why I disagree.

Monster213213

Is your time horizon 5 years? 3 months? A snapshot? Are you a trader? I firmly believe in BTC and with that firmly believe MSTR will succeed and be one of the largest companies in the world - whether 5, 10 or 25 years

R50cent

Depends on where you bought, but feel free to go look at the chart and tell me where the smart investment happened during the bitcoin jump for MSTR. Something something 'catching knives in the market'. If you didn't bail out of MSTR around a year ago, you're sucking wind.

zenethics

You're right. The only option for storage in 2026 is some startup with 3.5 million in revenue and 5 employees. You _have_ to use coldcard because your favorite podcaster told you to. Nevermind Trezor, Ledger, Coinbase, the ETF, MSTR. When it comes to self custody for substantial funds, the only real choice is to go off the beaten path and to use something a bootstrapped startup made with low funding. The podcast cold storage startup was the smartest choice. The only choice, when you think about it.

nachtraum

Actually, if you have bad news like millions of $100 got hacked, and MSTR selling thousands of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin price is neutral, this is often a good bullish sign. For example at the end of 2022, Bitcoin just dropped from 22K to 15K in the FTX aftermath. Then there were a bunch of further bad news coming out but price didn't care. It signaled the bottom of the cycle. Not saying it is assured we are the bottom, but feels good.

Different-Guess8999

Move your MSTR shares off exchanges people

botford80

To prove that he can. Critics of Strategy say that he is so deep into btc that he can't sell any of it and is stuck holding. He sells chunks of btc to prove to the critics that his strategy is actually sound and will not tank btc price or MSTR. Basically a proof of concept.

SilverPrivateer

You all bit the hand that feeds. I warned all of you bitcoiners not to let MSTR fall beneath 1 MNAV or we would start our "stinky dumping" instead of buying. You would be at 20k without us... And now you poked the bear. Regards, The MSTRarmy

zenethics

My idea was to track the performance for people who got involved in BTC early on their non-BTC ideas. The idea here is that this might be visionaries that see trends before others do (like, maybe they get involved in AI early too). Once a company has 50%+ of NAV in BTC their performance is going to echo that of BTC. It looks like the only candidate that fits the theory is Elon Musk. Michael Saylor is great too, but in a portfolio holding MSTR goes in the "hard money / BTC exposure" bucket whereas TSLA or SPCX would fit in other buckets like "risk growth" or something and filling the other buckets was where my mind was. So, not an argument that MSTR is a bad investment or anything, more of a question of diversifying into something with good management who also have a worldview that understands BTC but whose success or failure isn't largely tied to BTC (here, the low BTC allocation is a plus not a minus - a plus because they own some, and a plus because it's not too much and I can tune my own exposure by having my own BTC proxy bucket).

cuteman

None of what you describe exists It's either MSTR or a company that holds a small portion of assets/cash in BTC or other crypto

zenethics

It doesn't work for a few reasons. 1. The goal would be to track companies whose management understood Bitcoin early, not to track BTC directly (tracking BTC directly is easy) 2. MSTR's operating business is tiny to the point of being irrelevant 3. MSTR isn't even a holding company really, it's more like Saylor's hedge fund where who knows what he'll do next

cuteman

I mean you're the one who wanted to observe a "bitcoin-holder only portfolio would look like performance wise" and MSTR is the closest thing on the planet aside from something like Coinbase

ProperSyllabub8798

BTC is dead. There is no Safeway to hold your coins. Get out before the whales like MSTR crowd the exit

BigBigMooney

MSTR and STRC are in a “death spiral”

markphillips401

So, the same thing traders do. MSTR has turned into a Bitcoin trading company as opposed to a Bitcoin acquisition company.

cuteman

Is that not MSTR?

cuteman

Is that not MSTR?

Lefties_TheWorst7331

Saylor said *you* should never sell your BTC. Saylor is busy trying to get MSTR included into the SP500, and to do so, they need to look more like a company and less like a digital asset. On record ≠ old ass interviews? BTC has been going up on the news of his selling, so I'll take it..

More-Translator9074

Boycott MSTR

DrApricot

The Coldcard theft is a PR disaster for Bitcoin, and may do permanent damage to its franchise. If MSTR and the Bitcoin EFTs were smart, they’d get together a syndicate and buy Coinkite and refund everyone’s stolen coins. They have all made huge bets on the future of Bitcoin. It would also demonstrate to bitcoiners that they are not opposed to safe self-custody when it’s done right.

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

I know funds and RIAs are clear to HIFO but I wonder when a general corporate like MSTR runs into issues Like you say, it's probably de factor HIFO through a spec ID methodology that they don't as such

Leithm

I think people underestimate how much crypto’s fortune is tied to Bitcoin and how much Bitcoin’s fortune is tied to MSTR. Also how close MSTR came to forced liquidation of much more Bitcoin.  However I think they are out of the woods for now. They have shown how easily they can raise money.  Lets say they get to 5 Bln cash (already at 4 bln) they will have over 3 years of coverage for STRC. Add the interest on their cash and a reduction of dividend to 10-11% they will have about 4 years of coverage. STRC will increase to par, and any more sales they generate at par will strengthen their balance sheet further. They already own 4% of  the supply so don’t  ever really need to buy any more, so will be able to do nothing and watch BTC rise. 

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

Why did you reply to me twice [I already confirmed to you that yes, if you had invested in MSTR 4 years ago you made a great trade selling today](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR/). Personally I would've just bought native BTC 4 years ago, but maybe you're not comfortable with that and so you sought out the publicly listed equity that holds BTC exposure for you. I think perhaps you're a bit out of your depth when it comes to thinking about PNL or corporates or investing in equity markets.

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

Well, yes - if you invested in MSTR 4 years ago you probably bought shares around $32 in early August 2022 and it's trading around $94 today. So your cost basis in 100 shares you bought for $3200 would've been $32/share, which you now sell for $94 per share giving you a total proceeds of $9400. $9400 - $3200 = $6200 profit you made over 4 years, which will be taxable in the US under LT capital gains rates of 20% so you owe a tax bill of $1240 out of the $9400 total proceeds you brought down. So correct, no problem for you - it was a great trade. Accounting aside, do you just...not know how things work?

Usual_Suspect8663

Saylor won’t go bankrupt, odds are in the next cycle MSTR is 3x from here and everyone is saying he’s a genius

cchackal

you can get exposure via IBIT/MSTR or maybe use coinbase?

alfredonoodles

MSTR has $8 billion cash on hand and hold 820k Bitcoin, they sold 1800, the same as the coldcard hack.

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

Yeah it does seem MSTR uses spec ID (haven't found a note recently but in their 2005 10K lmao; don't want to dig too deep on the subway home and doubt i'll open the laptop at home) Would be curious if they can elect HIFO as a corporate, even though there's exceptions for crypto (would they have to use HIFO for all other capital gains then? probably not, prob overthinking). I'd bet they just flattened the PNL as best possible and just have some gnarly lot tracking process set up, since they're not active traders and generally transact in one direction in one symbol

ThisIsMyFifthAccount

They absolutely pieces of inventory, and those units of inventory for accounting exercises like this are the tax-lots tracked by the cost at which they were acquired. They certainly are functionally identical, but he's got various tax lots where he acquired at a per-coin cost of $12K, up to probably $125K. When he sells some for proceeds at a $60K per-coin, he can select the oldest tax lost basis to relieve (FIFO) which gives him a gain on the tx, or the newest lot (LIFO) which is the most recent lot he bought, or he can use a weighted average approach which is burdensome, or a specific ID approach (which sounds like what MSTR does - spec ID) which is burdensome for a different reason All the different relief methodologies do is change the recognition timing of PNL (hence why they use spec ID, they probably match cost lots closely to the proceeds of their sale to minimize realized PNL).

Ok_Subject_2447

And MSTR selling Bitcoin in order to survive

fan_of_hakiksexydays

>Do you genuinely believe that MSTR will be worth less than it's underlying Bitcoin in a bull run? Absolutely, since it's currently worth $20B less than its underlying BTC fund. That's because the stock doesn't buy you BTC. It's tied to the share of the company not Bitcoin itself. And the shares are used as a form of raising capital. And they can get diluted. You also can't control when Bitcoin is sold. So for all you know, they're gonna end up getting sold at $30K a coin. Not to mention that Strategy's average BTC cost them $75K. Also, we have to assume that there will be a bullrun again. And looking at the last bullrun, even if we get another one, it might be even more muted and disapointing.

UC_DiscExchange

> You do realize that the stock still dropped 80% despite BPS increasing 56% right? Yes because it's a leveraged position so MNAV drops with the hype. This isn't the gotcha you think it is. > So increase in BPS doesn't guarantee the stock increase. Unless MNAV goes negative, which is a ridiculous long-term assertion, the stock will rise correlative to Bitcoin. Historically MNAV spikes with Bitcoin. Do you genuinely believe that MSTR will be worth less than it's underlying Bitcoin in a bull run? If so, hammer those shorts.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

>It wouldn't because Bitcoin per share has increased. BPS has increased 56% since then, so Bitcoin doesn't have to hit ATH for MSTR to reach it's ATH., assuming MNAV is the same That's not how any of this works lol. You do realize that the stock still dropped 80% despite BPS increasing 56% right? So increase in BPS doesn't guarantee the stock increase. The only reason the stock goes up is if people WANT to buy it. You can increase BPS 200%, if people don't want to buy MSTR, it could go actually go down another -20% instead. People bought MSTR because of hype. That same hype will need to return next bull cycle. And in a big way. Otherwise, it's gonna do the same thing alt coins do. And just like alt coiners they're gonna go "but why isn't it going back to ATH", "but it has higher upside", "but there's X and Y fundamentals and reasons it should go back higher".

UC_DiscExchange

> The problem is MSTR is down waaay more than what was expected. It's down 80%. This simply isn't true. Anyone with half a brain would expect a leveraged position to drop more than the underlying asset. MNAV 1.05, which is about exactly what should be expected in a bear market. > And things for Strategy have been going worse than they expected, to the point that they had to sell BTC. Again, they didn't **have** to sell anything. They were already sitting on 2+ years of obligations. This is strictly so they can get back to buying more Bitcoin. >So you would need a hell of a bullrun to get back on track. In fact, MSTR would need to go up 400% just to get back its losses. It wouldn't because Bitcoin per share has increased. BPS has increased 56% since then, so Bitcoin doesn't have to hit ATH for MSTR to reach it's ATH., assuming MNAV is the same.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

I think you are a little delusional about how MSTR works. In theory, yes, it's good if they get a lot of BTC, and when we get a bullrun, its should go back up. And it better happen soon. The problem is MSTR is down waaay more than what was expected. It's down 80%. And things for Strategy have been going worse than they expected, to the point that they had to sell BTC. So you would need a hell of a bullrun to get back on track. In fact, MSTR would need to go up 400% just to get back its losses. So you have to assume that the next bullrun will be as big as past ones. Which the last one wasn't even able to match anywhere close and had very disapointing returns. You also have to assume that people will actually buy the stock in a big enough way to get well past 400%.

Altruistic_Shoe7967

After strategy stock lost its correlation with bitcoin, it's been written in the books. MSTR doesn't even have a core business, just buying bitcoin

BigRevolution5015

Short MSTR !

fan_of_hakiksexydays

STRC is still unpegged. Despite raised yields and raising back cash for yields. MSTR is still down about 80% right now. $4 billion in cash after having to dilute shares and sell BTC because the ship is sinking. But now they have to spend even more of that cash with the buy backs, to basically balance back their debt obligation, pay dividends. So that's billions that are gonna be gone pretty quickly. It will save their asses short term, but if this bear market doesn't bounce back quickly into a bullrun, they are gonna be back to square 1 pretty quickly.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

He did plan on cash reserves, as long as the bear market doesn't last too long. But he also said this bear market wouldn't last long, and we'd be back in a bull market later this year. So this bear market has to turn around within the next few months. I don't think they also planned out how quickly MSTR would dive, how long STRC would stay unpegged, how high they'd have to raise yields (still above promotional yields), or that they'd have to resort to selling BTC. They probably didn't expect they'd have to take this much money out of their cash reserves that were supposed to last close to 2 years. The fact that they not only can't buy BTC anymore, and are even now forced to sell BTC, really shows that this isn't going according to plan.

Monster213213

STRC It’s up 20% from the low and not far off par. MSTR is up week to date 4billion in cash What not working?

fan_of_hakiksexydays

STRC depegging meant they had to raise the yield. Raising the yield meant they had to get a lot more cash. Needing more cash meant they had to dilute shares of MSTR. Diluting shares means MSTR drops in value, and STRC depegs more in fear. Which means they needed even more cash to buy back stocks and pay dividends. Which means they have to sell BTC now. With BTC getting sold off, it means MSTR holders lose the value of their stock is based on, and the feedback loop starts all over again.

HSuke

Yes. I've also noticed that the amount of MSTR sold exactly matches 2 months of dividend/interest. Not sure why they chose exactly 2 months.

mraksmeet

Arbitrage against MSTR not USD

Personal-Ebb-4717

except they also sell 3 millions MSTR shares, which the headline doesn't mention. hmm

HSuke

If you're wondering why they keep "selling low, buying high", it's because they're arbitraging BTC with MSTR--not with USD. MSTR price moves like leveraged BTC price. When BTC price rises, MSTR price rises even faster. And when When BTC price falls, MSTR price dumps even harder. Strategy's main goal is to increase Bitcoin-Per-Share (BPS) of MSTR, which requires selling BTC when its price is high relative to MSTR even though that happens to be when it's low relative to USD. They could "sell high, buy low" if they arbitraged against USD and held a larger USD reserve, but they're stubborn.

AnApexBread

The biggest difference is that MSTR has billions of dollars to cover its losses if the Bitcoin gets stolen.

ClemPFarmer

So MSTR is using online cold storage? I’m one of those guys who isn’t confident in my cold storage “skills”. Seems like if it’s secure enough for MSTR, then it’s good enough for most people?

Old_Cucumber_1343

i keep a little bit on exchanges, a little bit in institutional, a little bit of MSTR, and a little bit of hardware

WizofWallstreet

Clearly you have no clue of how MSTR operates, he’s already bought prior to the post.

macready26

I bought MSTR to my tax advantage account

Own_Display_8154

Anyone know how MSTR secure’s their holdings?

Worldx22

No. But I've been buying BTC IBIT and MSTR for a moment now. $1k split into 3 buys. Works for me.

noncommonGoodsense

I’m honestly surprised you can form such coherent sentences with MSTR COK so far down your throat.

teh_herper

Loading up on them MSTR puts lol

eltoniq

People still believe in him which is wild when he just lies to their face. Wondering what the MSTR subs are saying about him, or are they doubling down on the kool aid.

Lavayo

Does MSTR have a risk apart from BTCs performance? Yes of course. But I don't trust Saylor but the whole company. It might not seem like it sometimes, but its not a one man show. According to communication and the release of current data like buys / sells its an uniquely transparent company. Your seem to just hate THE ONE GUY and ignore pretty much everything else.

RevengeTrade

Scamael Bailor should be arrested for fraud and conspiracy to fraud. He’s conducting unlawful business. MSTR is a scam. MSTR collapsing would be the best thing to happen for BTC since the ETF.

macready26

Sold few years ago to buy MSTR and max out my registered tax advantage account. I sleep well 😴

gigasawblade

Either spend some of cash reserve, or sell more MSTR

Ruzhyo04

It might not have been a bad idea if MSTR didn’t turn their stocks into a ponzi. I doubt Microsoft would have done the same

Knowledge775

The fundamental change is going to be multisig with a multi-vendor setup from full open-source software. Everyone is a scammer and wants your Bitcoin. The Bitcoin space is filled with shills that shill bad products for money. Coldcard, BlockFi, Coinkite, MSTR, STRC, etc. The Bitcoin space was a huge echo chamber for Coldcard being the best. Coinkite went from being open source to source available after they were butt-hurt from the Foundation using their code for the Passport. The complete irony is Coinkite used Trezor’s code when they started. We have to assume that any closed-source software is compromised. Nation-states don’t want Bitcoin to succeed. Self-custody is against the state’s interests. Hardware wallets are an attack vector.

anthony446

Buy MSTR and chill

cali_dave

Cryptocurrency isn't going to see mass adoption without custodial services. Grandpa isn't going to learn how to use a Ledger. The beauty of crypto is that it gives us degens the option for self-custody. I think you and I have fundamentally different ideas of what centralizes a blockchain. People choosing to take advantage of custodial services doesn't mean the blockchain is centralized. Block production and validation is still decentralized. The point of decentralization is to prevent government institutions from controlling the currency. They can't simply print more (and devalue it in the process). That's why everybody's so up in arms about CBDCs - they're still controlled by the government. A CBDC would allow the government to devalue, seize, watch, or freeze your coins as they see fit. They could rewrite the ledger if they wanted. *That's* why we value decentralization - not because MSTR has a bunch of it or because Grandpa's going to use Fidelity to handle his crypto.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Read it again. Nowhere did I say anything about MSTR being the next Luna and FTX. Nor made any causality connection between them. I literally only compared the market cap, to show the size of MSTR. Not a causality. FTX and LUNA are a good comparison, because those crashed in the last bear market. So if MSTR was to crash, FTX and LUNA's size are a good comparison to get an idea of the size of MSTR and its effect on the market.

tj78492

"We got also MSTR no longer buying BTC, even selling some, and being forced to dilute its shares. MSTR's BTC holdings are still bigger than the entire market cap of Luna and FTX at their peak. Why does it feel like history is rhyming so much once again." You pointed out things in crypto that have nothing do with MSTR and said history is rhyming.... You're waiting for the next shoe to drop and think it's going to be MSTR when the things they are doing is exactly why it won't be them. They've built up enough reserves to cover their obligations and taken the hit on their narratives that were unsustainable. My point is there's nothing there to blow up like Luna and FTX anymore.

Heavy-Syrup-6195

Saylor isn’t selling $5b, nor has he announced any plans to sell. MSTR was previously approved to sell UP TO $5B , if needed. Old news rolled into new FUD.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

You haven't explained why MSTR is like Tether in that it won't fail. It feels like you're just randomly picking out something in crypto that didn't fail, without really having a connection to MSTR, and then just saying "well if crypto X didn't fail, then stock Y won't fail". That's like me telling someone who has a Jeep that it will never breakdown, because my Honda motorcycle hasn't broken down.

KeanuRekt

What happens if one of the MSTR or ETF custodians get's hacked and hundreds of thousands of BTC are lost?

praslovan

We've had one yes. But what about MSTR capitulation event? We're not there yet

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Actually, Luna is also a stablecoin. So you could have just as well said more like Luna than FTX. MSTR is just a stock tho. It's not like it's something people use or need on exchanges like stablecoins. Tether has its issues but it's been able to survive because it can mint and burn at will to stay pegged, and its mechanism still works fine. Even during bear markets. That's the big difference. MSTR hasn't been able to solve its issues. It's just been spiraling. It's stock has been tanking. STRC hasn't been able to stay pegged. They had to increase the dividends. They had to dilute shares. They are burning through their reserves faster now, which they needed to keep to pay for dividends. And now they can't buy BTC anymore. So it's definitely not the same problems Tether has lol.

Kenjati-Outside

The $5B Strategy Authorization: Is Wall Street pulling the strings? Check the Full 6-part breakdown of the MSTR debt structure over on X: https://x.com/i/status/2083594345244926427

fan_of_hakiksexydays

So we now started having exchanges collapse, major hacks, one alt coin after another getting killed off. Are we entering that phase of the bear market again? And of course we got MSTR no longer buying BTC, even selling some, and being forced to dilute its shares. MSTR's BTC holdings are still bigger than the entire market cap of Luna and FTX at their peak.

kachurovskiy

Some folks have mentioned using leveraged BTC futures - I think that would be a far inferior strategy since there's a liquidation and holding price on top of crypto commissions. With MSTR, there's none of that.

Late-Space-9161

i don’t like MSTR, i would just buy leveraged btc futures, you’ll make more money depending on your leverage

HSuke

He will have the last laugh, but mainly because he's already fucking rich from his investor's money. Same with CEO Phong Le, who's been selling MSTR shares regularly on schedule. They're still be rich even if MSTR goes to zero.

Milcah_Ganderton

MSTR's timing has been hilariously bad - they basically speedrun the retail investor experience but with billions backing them. Guess even mega corps can't escape the urge to panic sell at the worst possible moments.

toniistheworst

my man MSTR is a ticking time bomb. there are better examples for your argument other than saylor xD

WizofWallstreet

MSTR and ETF is how it gets legitimized, not random tech offshoots that offer these services. Love it or hate it that’s where we are going

Personal-Ebb-4717

MS will find out that the "fly wheel" spins both ways. If dividend continues to be paid without any new STRC ATM. MSTR will eventually paid out more in dividends than the money they raised selling STRC in the first place. And dividend continues in perpetuity. In other words, the dividends is not sustainable and the matket is pricing in this risk, hence STRC is trading way below par.

callebbb

It’s a similar argument for why you’d buy Gold or own bonds or currency issued by a large institution that owns large amounts of gold (ie a bank). Bank gets to monetize their inert asset (Gold), and the debt purchaser gets reduced insolvency risk (in theory) and a steady rate of return. Ultimately, people who hate Bitcoin won’t buy the company. If you don’t think Bitcoin is going to revolutionize money, you wouldn’t buy MSTR. Just like if you think banks are gonna go insolvent or Gold is gonna be meaningless, you wouldn’t be buying treasuries or holding the dollar.

PureCod9290

MSTR "investors" truly the dumbest people on the planet. Every time I hear someone try and pump this moron scheme I wonder if they wear a bicycle helmet to the supermarket. Probably not allowed to drive etc

fan_of_hakiksexydays

MSTR and STRC might be up there as some of the dumbest things to ever hit this space. It's purely greed driven schemes. While I'm glad Saylor helped pumped my bags last year, it's not what I got into BTC for. And I'm also not liking how it's controlling such an increasingly massive share of the active supply of BTC in the market. I don't know if people realize it, but they are controlling far more BTC than FTX and Luna ever had combined. Despite the drop in price, Strategy's BTC holding are still worth way more than the total market capitalization of Luna and FTX at their peak.

HSuke

Even investment companies like Berkshire Hathaway invest in **other** companies that produce **real goods and services** for real customers. Down the chain, it's involved in real value creation for external customers. MSTR, STRC, and BTC are circular investments that don't produce real value or utility. BTC is a negative-sum game for investors. Some investor value is being permanently lost to mining and electricity/e-waste.

callebbb

I know we're trying to contextualize the financial instruments used by Saylor and comparing it to a ponzi scheme, but isnt it more like a holdings company, like Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire earns around 0.4% of its value in dividends. This means, at today's valuations and dividend payouts, it will take 250 years for each share to be made whole. Now this is just internal. Owning Berkshire does not give you access to any of these dividends. Instead, the CEO of Berkshire reinvests those dividends into companies. All Berkshire does is buy companies. They don't make iPhones. They don't build data centers. They don't sell coca-cola or earn high margin revenue from adspace. And look at the stock market today. Just like there are people saying "Bitcoin is going to zero" or "Bitcoin is going to the moon", the stock market is filled with companies that are absurdly overvalued or undervalued depending on your point of view. When you buy Berkshire Hathaway, you're buying a narrative centered around primarily 1 guy making stock picks to drive value. You're not buying some cash generation machine that will make you whole with a decade of parabolic growth. Obviously this isn't a 1:1 comparison. Buffett isn't issuing preferreds and then spending the money on more stonks. Regardless, I think Berkshire Hathaway is a great example as to how a "holdings company" can monetize assets. Another example would be REITs, but I don't want to beat these analogies with a deadhorse. Disclaimer: I am biased myself due to positions. Positions: I hold Bitcoin, MSTR LEAPs, and some STRC as well.

HSuke

A Saylor scheme is when you take investment capital from shareholders and instead of actually investing it, uses it to pay another group of shareholders. And vice versa. 1. They sell MSTR to pay for STRC dividends 2. They ATM STRC above $100 to buy BTC, which increases MSTR value It's circular.

HSuke

**A Saylor Scheme** is Ponzi-adjacent. Design-wise, they are very similar. The main difference is that Strategy openly-discloses its actions while a Ponzi scheme lies about what it does. ####**Ponzi Scheme**: Shareholders are **directly** paid by other shareholders. The scheme is hidden behind fake accounting and fraud. New shareholders pay old shareholders. ####**Saylor Scheme**: Shareholders are **both directly and indirectly** paid by other shareholders. The scheme is publicly visible, but hidden by financial complexity. 1. Group A directly pays for Group B: New MSTR shareholders pay for STRC dividends. (Though recently in July 2026, there was a BTC sale that paid for STRC dividends). 2. Group B indirectly pays for Group A: New STRC shareholders pay for BTC (via ATM when its price is over the $100 par), which indirectly increases MSTR value Similar to a Ponzi scheme, there are no external customers increasing shareholder value. Unlike a Ponzi scheme, Microstrategy can also legally pause dividend payments for STRC indefinitely, so it has a mechanism to temporary prevent a complete collapse of the company if there are no more new investors. Thus a Saylor scheme is not a Ponzi scheme, but it has significant similarities.

SimpleMoonFarmer

If MSTR increases BTC per share by selling MSTR and buying BTC with mNAV > 1 (market cap of MSTR > BTC holdings of MSTR) then when it's the other way around (mNAV < 1) MSTR would increase the BTC per share by selling BTC and buying back MSTR stock with that money. They should do that, no?

fan_of_hakiksexydays

MSTR quarterly results are in. They hit a whopping net loss of $8.22 Billion. A major loss was always expected, but this still exceeded what Wall Street expected. The expectation was a -$2 to -$3 loss per share, which turned out to actually be a -$24.45 loss per share. The company still has $2.5 Billion in cash and investments to still cover its ass. But at the same time, with the dilution of the stock, convertible debt interest, increase of STRC dividend to re-peg it, repurchasing of debt, etc...it has had to use a lot more cash and now will have to use a lot more cash than expected. The dividend coverage runaway is now shortened even more now that they don't have the same ability to raise cash with fresh stock issuance. Especially after having already diluted their stock.

feltusen

Its not. And you cant backup your claims. I can. Adoptation, where is it? People has lost hope in it, eg the prize and market cap is falling and has been for a long time. Doesnt help that MSTR and other freuds keep luring people in, most people see that

SatoshiMckenna

Bitcoin only. If you are feeling ballsy then MSTR, ASST,abd MTPLF are good options as well.