Reddit Posts
It's not over till Stradegy sells a lot
Can MSTR create a ripple effect on the whole stock market should it collapse to nothing?
Crypto Fatigue: Riding Solana, Stuck in the Noise
MSTR and STRC are a feast or famine greedy scheme. Awesome in a bullrun, catastrophic in a bear market. It can amplify a rocket ship during good times, but could now potentially amplify into a death spiral.
The MSTR mess has exposed some important truths and lies not just about Bitcoin but Cryptocurrency more widely.
Why I bought IBIT for the first time today.
Saylor turned a software company into a bitcoin proxy you can buy on the stock market. so why can’t a creator do the same with their own upside?
If BTC goes to 100k again MSTR will dump it again?
How Does Michael Saylor Keep Buying Bitcoin Even When MSTR Stock Drops?
60k has such a massive support structure that it is effectively the new bottom. You can treat it as effectively $0.
What do you think MSTR filings will show come Monday?
Galaxy Says Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 Could Have Prevented Polymarket’s $375M MSTR Disaster
Galaxy Says Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Could Have Prevented Polymarket's $375M MSTR Disaster
Why Is Crypto Crashing: Bitcoin at $63K, MSTR Down $10B and $750B Asia Bloodbath
I just sold the exact bottom on MSTR, in the EXACT MINUTE
The Saylor sale isn’t bearish because it was 32 BTC. It’s bearish because it happened at all.
Last week EMJX AI system predicted that Crypto will go down
Strategy (MSTR) Investors 'Deeply Concerned' After Market's Reaction to Michael Saylor Selling Bitcoin
Will Michael Saylor be this cycles SBF ?
Strategy (MSTR) Investors 'Deeply Concerned' After Market's Reaction to Michael Saylor Selling Bitcoin
Strategy selling 0.0038% of the it's BTC holding is a good thing and not a cause for panic at all.
CEO Matt Cole says Wall St will fight against bitcoin-backed digital credit providers like Strive and MSTR
Bitcoin Treasury Weekly #2: Why a Canadian Pension Buying MSTR Changes Everything
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF vs. Strategy’s (MSTR) Bitcoin holdings chart
MSTR just dropped another $255M on BTC. 818,334 coins and still buying.
Strategy (MSTR) overtakes BlackRock's IBIT after aggressive bear market BTC buying
MSTR buys 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion
Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) moves to pay STRC dividends twice per month
this week's Last Trade rip is out and you're not going to want to miss this one - you'll either love it or hate it the TLDR as always: Stay Humble and Buy Real Bitcoin, not $MSTR, $STRC or any other pseudo bitcoin product
Is $MSTR Broken? The Answer Might Surprise You
Thinking about moving half my BTC off cold storage — ETF, exchange or MSTR?
Strategy (MSTR) Bought Over 4,000 Bitcoin Today via STRC As Strong Week Continues
Strategy holds 738,731 Bitcoin. Their average cost is $75,862. Bitcoin is at $69,600. The treasury is underwater and nobody is talking about what that actually means.
Deep Dive on Hedera - It's quietly becoming one of the go-to chains for institutions
Can someone please explain to me how MSTR is losing to IBIT on the way down and barely beating it on the way up?
What are your thoughts on MSTR? Shares of Strategy jumped nearly 9% after a rally in the price of bitcoin created upward pressure.
MicroStrategy Adds More BTC Despite a $5.7B Paper Loss — What Are They Seeing?
MSTR stock eyes rebound, Strategy's Michael Saylor: Bitcoin's not for sale
Bitcoin Hasn't Bottomed Yet says Ex JPMorganChase Vice Prez, BitThumb Crisis Worsens - BFM Times
With Saylor’s BTC underwater will this hurt his ability to raise capital ?
Bitcoin Treasury Holdings: Top 100 Public Companies Control 1.13M BTC
Bitcoin price news: BTC re-takes $70,000 extending bounce from Thursday's crash
I closed my eyes for a second and now Bitcoin is down 63k~
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Barely Escapes Cost-Basis Scare — A 20% Price Swing Awaits?
Do uou think MSTR will go bankrupt or collapse?
Do uou think MSTR will go bankrupt or collapse?
Strategy ($MSTR) Bought 855 More Bitcoin Before Price Crash
MicroStrategy's, $MSTR, Bitcoin position officially turns red as Bitcoin falls below $76,000
What is the argument that BTC isn't going to $0?
Here’s my BTC/BTC backed holdings as of current date. Thinking of a BTC backed loan if we see another downturn.
Strategy ($MSTR) Hits 52-Week Low As Bitcoin Crashes To $83k
GPUS, the next MSTR? Small-cap treasury is now over 100% Bitcoin backed
Bitcoin , MSTR and MSTY Price Action Breakdown, The One Level That Chang...
Top Public Companies & Countries With The Largest Crypto Treasuries Right Now
Tracking a “Bitcoin treasury company” from SEC filings + building a real time dashboard (KULR as example)
I didn’t expect stocks to feel this familiar
MSTR buying a month worth of new bitcoin supply made in a month, in a week, is pretty crazy
MSTR stock at a make-or-break price as Strategy buys 13,627 Bitcoins
Crypto DATs are literally legal ponzi machine (BMNR / SBET / MSTR / etc...)
Bernstein expects Bitcoin to Rise, Strategy (MSTR) Buys More Bitcoin
Metaplanet Buys $451M Bitcoin, Hits 35,102 BTC And Generates $55M Via Options Strategy Like MSTR
$4,000 to invest – MSTR, COIN, COP or something else?
Strategy shares dropped nearly 50% in 2025, far outpacing bitcoin’s decline
Why I believe 2026 is the year the "4-Year Cycle" officially breaks (BTC Thesis)
MSTR stock forms a death cross pattern as enterprise mNAV turns negative
My biggest mistake that I thought MSTR moves base on bitcoin which it doesn’t. MSTR is heavily shorted and doesn’t follow bitcoin 🤐
The "Grayscale Syndrome" Hits MicroStrategy: Why It Spells Trouble for Bitcoin
Peter Schiff Tells Michael Saylor That Buying Bitcoin While MSTR Trades Below NAV Makes No Sense
Bitcoin's Investment Future Now Rests on MicroStrategy's Health
Bitget Stock Futures Break Through $10 Billion as Global Traders Rush Into Tokenized Equities
The war between JPMorgan Chase and Bitcoin has begun.
Was the sky falling the last downturn/bear market?
Mentions
Right now MSTR IS THE GREATEST THREAT THIS CYCLE
Thanks for your fear, just made me more confident in buying more BTC and MSTR stock.
i mean of course anything can happen to mnav, but a good bet is MSTR goes up if BTC does.
If MSTR goes who will be left buying?
Man, reading the MSTR sub is just sad. It's the guy who came how to his wife naked in bed, and another man sneaking naked out of the guest bathroom, and doing everything in his power to rationalize that it wasn't cheating. Some people there have a truly parasocial relationship with that stock. They will rabidly reply to *any* comment even remotely critical of it. Who are they trying to convince? These people need to be studied clinically
Institutions getting in on Bitcoin in a high profile manner is a bad idea. Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralised freedom. Bitcoin will go on long after MSTR blows up. I just hope people get through the pain when that happens.
What’s the floor of MSTR ? So I can buy?
But they specifically called out Jack Maller and BTC in the title along with Saylor and MSTR, then referred to plural P.T.Barnums. So it seems they are saying BTC is snake oil too
But you cannot beat me. I can even dip the strongest company with ultra strong fundamentals lol. Once I buy it, it just stops there, goes down a lot or do sideways until I sell. I am a guy with superpower to stop things and put them down for good, like MSTR haha.
Maybe you can elaborate then? From what I understand, this instrument was supposed to be to get an 11% yield but people holding are now underwater and MSTR still needs to fund the yield even though Bitcoin is not going up.
Oh and while we are talking price, when do the prediction markets predict that a share of MSTR will cost less than a share of STRC? MSTR is losing almost 10% a day... STRC about 6.5%... You do the math.
I am at an age that I will be long gone when MSTR is $1,000.00. But.. talking tough ... I would not be surprised if MSTR is gone before I am... Be Well
Afraid of MSTR failing, it’s not too late to sell your Bitcoin for Ethereum. Buy ETH.
Let me guess... You like talking tough, but you'll be nowhere to be found when MSTR is 1000$ ? GTFO
The screenshot is STRC, not MSTR
MSTR is down 46% just for this month. His BTC holdings are now below 22% from their average purchase value.
\* MSTR/STRC yield banking on BTC going up forever \* LUNA/USDT yield banking on Do Kwon’s cash reserves Very similar.
It will this time, because of MSTR. They hold 800 000 BTC and have been for a while the main buyer of BTC. Everybody else will wisely wait till MSTR is forced to have sold all the 800 000 BTC before buying again. That's all you have to do, wait. And sooner or later those 800 000 BTC go on the market for lower and lower and lower prices.
The only important question is: *will they keep paying the dividend?* If the answer is yes, then take advantage of the sellers' foolishness and get 15% yield *plus* the chance to have a 31% capital gain also. If no, then definitely short MSTR and STRC asap
No, he’s talking about MSTR stock where the pic is STRC
They can survive for 2 years until the 2027 and 2028 convertible note put options as long as Saylor doesn't do anything stupid. MSTR will fall to the low single digits in price if BTC drops to $40k. But based on his track record, he will do something stupid.
These advertisements were absolutely garbage and I’m kind of glad they are being tossed back in the face of MSTR because even as a shareholder this was both: 1. Terrible AI 2. Showed a complete lack of foresight that the bottom might not be in and how bad these would look when STRC took a dump off it’s ‘peg’ (I prefer capped price because this ain’t no peg) 3. Clearly targeted at horny boomers who CANNOT afford principal loss and… here we are.
the earliest maturity date is 2028 for the converts, payable with MSTR shares. most of the debt matures in 2030 and later Strategy very recently reduced the debt from $8B to $6.7B it is a fortress. short sellers will never bring it down. they tried oh so very hard in 2022 and then it was just fine, then steady in 2023 and then it really pumped in 2024-2025
Im one of these persons , and I Tried to think why I am happy, I mean if i do not ever intend to buy bitcoin, then why should I care? and these are the reasons i came up with: 1) Schadenfreude is definitely a part of it, while I believe and can argue, that in the long run bitcoin and crypto is a losing proposition , in the short run there are a lot of assholes flaunting the real or perceived wealth. 2) bitcoin and crypto is using up a finite shared resource : energy and carbon budget. I mean everything uses at least one of those , especially AI and I do not begrudge other people, but any other use has some other benefit. bitcoin is just use for the sake of using. 3) i do not intend to ever buy bitcoin. but i may be forced to in the future. if i am attacked by a ransomware i may have to. bitcoin supports this industry. 4) I do not intend to ever buy bitcoin but i am forced to do it today. with MSTR getting into the indices I can either stop passive investing, engage in complicated and costly financial engineering to negate the effect of MSTR on my portfolio , or resign having part of my investment be in bitcoin. This is the reason I would like to see MSTR go down in flames , I do not even care if my part of the investment goes down with it, the fact that basically a giant pile of bitcoin joined the index of actual companies and automatically forced me to invest fuels my hate to Saylor in particular and the crypto in general.
I couldn’t imagine ever touching anything Saylor is involved with. MSTR/STRC deserve every bit of this unfortunately and it’s only going to get worse.
Exactly, every cycle's bottom is marked by a big player going down. Btc is not attractive when one dude owns 5% of the supply and has bad finances. I will not return to btc unless MSTR sells.
I do not think OP is saying BTC is the snake oil. I think he is referring to MSTR and its one trick pony STRC
Why would MSTR sell it's Bitcoin... they have $1.4 billion in cash, and only about \~ $150m in monthly obligations. They also have raised \~$12B in cash so far this year. So they have the ability to raise enough cash to literally do nothing for 4 years...
MSTR is dropping because all investors feel the same way, doesn't matter how much you think you're right, investors are spooked, MSTR is a glorified pyramid scheme
The cycle isn't over and it probably will crash some more but I don't think the only reason it didn't crash more is MSTR buying. More than likely there is less vol as it matures, the peak wasn't as high. Also there is instutional buyers with the ETF etc now that keep a bid going. I wouldn't be suprised if it falls more but im tempted to buy some STRF now its trading at 86.61 and is senior so unless BTC totally craps the bed you looking at 11 percent yield. I think this is less a bet on MSTR than BTC here.
We saw what happened when they sold a tiny fraction. If they sell ANYMORE it’ll just speed up the process of MSTR collapsing. They’ve completely cornered themselves and unless some entities come and bump BTC back to near ATH then they’re fucked. Chances of BTC pumping hard right now? Not far off 0%
You might believe right, but I'm personally betting against it. Honest question, tho: Every previous cycle crashed way harder than 50% feom ATH. The only reason (in my humble opinion) this cycle didnt crash as hard as the previous was because MSTR was artificially keeping the buying pressure high with their non-stop buying... All in borrowed money. What do you think happens if they have to resort to their last possible resource, selling their bitcoin?
there's still a ton of volume and volatility in MSTR, options traders will go in and out of this stock and harvest volatility. until the volatility & volume in MSTR declines this stock still has the liquidity to survive a bear market, which by most measures is either at the bottom or 3-4 months away.
Bitcoin is already doing what it usually does: Crashing after a. New ATH. If this is the bottom and it goes up from here, there might believe hope. If it crashes any further than it already did, there's no stopping the MSTR death spiral as the faith is already evaporating and the liquidity is nearing its breaking point.
If they stop paying dividends, STRC crashes to 0 immediately. In fact, its going down now because of the fear this might happen already. I hope they do it, to be honest, because anyone who bought into STRC deserves to be rugpulled. But this will tank MSTR and bitcoin with it as there will be no more ways to raise money to pay interest on their loans. The loans are convertible, but if the credors start to convert to cut their loses, thats the end of MSTR as well. Michael Saylor flew too close to the sun.
The spreads on BTC are fucking terrible for one. Not that I trade MSTR though.
I agree. I don't WANT to see people get wrecked financially, but 5% is just too much & Saylor, in my humble opinion, is more of a Bitcoin owner than a Bitcoiner. If Strategy lost half of its Bitcoin, it wouldn't be a bad thing imo. I'm just glad I'm not part of it. I'm aware that some plebs bet half the farm on this & that's just sad. I blame all these influencers pumping MSTR, they're all silent now, shocker.
Man, you're delusional. The price of bitcoin didn't drop from selling 32 btc lol. And yes the MSTR price is more volatile than bitcoin, but it's by design. Feature not a bug. They can't go bankrupt unless bitcoin goes to 8k and stays there for years.
> the purpose of buying a company Couple years ago some institutions wanted an exposure to crypto, but legally were prohibited from directly buying BTC: > Direct Crypto Restrictions: Most equity index funds cannot legally purchase raw commodities, spot cryptocurrencies, or unregulated digital assets due to their investment mandates, institutional custody rules, or SEC fund classifications. > The Corporate Loophole: MicroStrategy is legally incorporated as an enterprise software company. Because its shares trade on the Nasdaq as a standard equity, any index fund tracking broad market or technology benchmarks was mechanically required to buy MSTR once its market capitalization grew large enough.
Strategy only has cash on hand for \~9 months. They owe \~$12B over the next 3 years between debt and dividends. How will they pay it? Half stock (MSTR dilution), half BTC sales. It's on the website.
Saylor will be forced to sell large amounts of BTC soon because selling MSTR dilutes its value too much. And then we go to $30k BTC.
The classic "bitcoin has never broke this trend". Michael saylor could dump 850k btc if he would like. It could 100% dump down to as low as mid 4 digits like $5000 before a bounce up. Of course I doubt he will dump 850k btc, but the market would be overwhelmed by this. If MSTR is forced to sell, i see a low of about 20-30k. If he stays in somehow, maybe as low as 40k
Every cycle there is always one big company going bust that causes a domino effect… this cycle it’s MSTR …. Grab you popcorns 🍿 and let’s watch this shit show unfold lol
MSTR & STRC bloodbath. 🩸🩸🩸
Wouldn’t MSTR have more upside?
Taking SATA down with it. I wonder if MSTR will go lower than STRC. 🤣
If BTC falls to 50K MSTR is going to be in a pickle 
Correct. But I do think most people should own MSTR. Everyone but the most uber-self-sovereign which is actually quite a high percentage of Bitcoin wealth due to the world still being SO early in Bitcoin adoption as a store of value.
You should own MSTR if you are willing to trade self-sovereignty for increased economic returns. You should hold STRC if you are willing to trade the call option part of Bitcoin's returns for steady, high, dependable yield for decades to come even if Bitcoin never goes up another leaky fiat dollar. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.
STRC collapsing causing MSTR to collapse causing a cascade of BTC sells which ultimately leads to lower lows on BTC. See you at the bottom boys!
Well, the issue is 2 fold. 1. No one knows for sure. 2. Time frame matters. Even people who are of the belief that btc will go to 0 don’t know when so taking a leveraged bet on that would be insanely risky. Secondly btc being prone to speculative investment and given the nature of current global events and the current US administration, btc is capable of moving wildly which means that leveraged bets are even more of a risk. Thirdly btc has a small enough daily trading amount that single entities like MSTR can significantly move the price with small moves. Basically you are asking why people don’t think they can time the market on a speculative asset that has a meme stock flavor/ cult following and large players that can move the price with small moves. Finally unless your life savings are somehow disposable for you, investing them all in one type of unsecured asset, even something less unstable than bitcoin is incredibly risky especially if you might need some of that money in the near term. I wouldn’t even recommend people put all their savings into a down payment on a house.
Ill buy bitcoin, but only after MSTR sells. I wont be bagholding their heavy bags :)
>Tell me why I should own Strategy please. I re-read the OPs post and I don't see anywhere he's recommending you to buy MSTR stock.
The company MSTR cannot be brought down by a bank run. Only their ability to raise new capital evaporates.
My friend. It's the bank run IS what causes the shares to fall to 1$. There's just no liquidity, so the entire value evaporates. That happens BECAUSE if the bank run: Everybody wanted to liquidated while nobody wanted to buy. If after that, the bagholders decide to just take the L and donate their now worthless shares back to MSTR virtually for free, it's their problem (as if that would ever happen), but it does not change the fact the company already collapsed and everyone already lost all their money. If you are suggesting that all the badholders who lost all of their money to MSTR would just collectively accept to entirelly absorb the loss and on top of it donate even their now worthless shares back to MSTR to help then rebuild from scratch, youbare beyond delusional, you're now in religious zealot territory. But I don't really believe that. What i think is that you just have skin in the game and therefore no incentive to discuss honestly. You NEED to convince everyone that is all good because otherwise you'll lose your money and so you will say whatever bullshit you think other people might believe. Either that or you just dumb. I'll be respectful and assume that's not the case.
If every shareholder of MSTR wants to sell, then MSTR will buy all shares for $1. It's a bank run that makes the bank stronger. Yoi can't have a bank run with equity.
> There's a good chance MSTR is getting kicked out of the Nasdaq100. > [...] > their road to easy capital is over. And they will/may have another nasdaq100 inclusion event in the future. Over until no longer over.
More sellers than buyers is obviously the simple answer, but I do not think Saylor taking profits on the way up would have changed much when the market turns risk off. If anything, people would read MSTR selling as a massive warning sign and front run it. His whole strategy is basically to be the buyer who does not care about timing
Put down the pipe. People talk their book in both good times and bad. Bill Ackman bought MSFT earlier this year. Afterwards, he was on CNBC talking about how much the stock was undervalued. I wouldn't call that manipulation. Maybe you would. I just call it talking your book. I can list 1,000 examples of this. The same happens on the other side. Michael Burry takes a short position and then post his bearish case on his Sub stack. It's no secret that people have been shorting MSTR for a while. If those same people have deep pockets then of course they are going to fund a huge press campaign deriding MSTR stock and making a big fuss over their supposed debt problems. The actual financials' of MSTR don't accurately reflect what is written in these junky articles. Nonetheless, is spreads a narrative and if some people believe that narrative then those same people will sell. Again. It's not complicated. Incentives aren't hard to understand.
no leverage at all? ask google how much debt MSTR has
OP just get brainwashed by the X trolls per par. Just keep stacking MSTR and BTC.
Give me a plausible scenario where MSTR goes to zero in the next 3 years instead of random words.
You obviously don’t understand retail buyers (his shareholders) as well as he does. The sheep buy when it’s high. MSTR wins by acquiring coins and tightening the supply whenever it can, so long as the price climbs in the long run.
What pressure cooker? MSTR is not leveraged in any kind of way that might force a sale if the company’s position, is it?
That's about the price you'll pay for MSTR shares in a few years.
How would MSTR ever go to zero in the next 3 years?? Is it even possible? Simple math says not a chance.
This post is about how every 4 years the revenue of miners gets cut in half. To compensate for this, to make sure the miners keep mining the price of Bitcoin needs to double every 4 years. This is impossible. And the price has not kept up with the revenue being cut in half. (we need to be at 200K but we are at 60k) So miners are slowly stopping with the mining and the hashrate of Bitcoin is going down. This means that Bitcoin will now become weaker and weaker till eventually an attacker can spend his Bitcoin twice in a double spend attack just by renting a lot of hashrate and mining his own blocks. Ofcourse if the price goes to 200K the problem is solved again. But it won't. Why not? Because right now there is only one big buyer of Bitcoin and that is MSTR. MSTR already owns 800 000 BTC. They have no additional revenue streams except for not even 50M a year with the computer services they offer. So it's only a matter of time before they are forced to start selling those Bitcoins, very slowly ofcourse. But what does everybody else on the market do when they hear that this company that owns 800 000 BTC is slowly forced to sell? Well they will wait because if he was the only buyer and now he is selling, the price will start dropping. Wait long enough and you could buy Bitcoin for under 10 000 dollars! That's a supergood deal when you know that eventually the price will go back to 200 000 dollars. Everybody that buys at 10 000 dollars can do 20x on their money! Amazing. So everybody will wait for years till MSTR is done selling. And the hashrate will slowly start dropping and dropping as miners now pay more for their electricity then they get from selling the Bitcoin they mined. So they will stop mining.
There's a good chance MSTR is getting kicked out of the Nasdaq100. They're going to post a third consecutive quarter of significant losses. SpaceX OpenAI Anthropic And others will IPO this year. If MSCI follows suit in 2027, their road to easy capital is over.
Saylor owns over 4% of BTC so he's hardly a non-factor. But yes, BTC is the real house of cards. STRC/MSTR are the catalyst.
I can imagine that. There will always be a new business that steps in for arbitrage. The prudent part is making sure you don't over leverage. While MSTR looks like a mess right now, if BTC recovers to 125k all will be forgiven. All companies go through lulls.
Who cares. As more normies enter the market the ETF's will grow. I prefer ETF's to what Strategy is doing, but it's not like Saylor holds 800k bitcoin. MSTR holder have the option to sell and buy bitcoin or ETF's if they want. I wouldn't mind if he was sacrificed if it meant more self custody bitcoin, but I fear they would just move to an ETF.
I haven't looked into Strive much, what do they do different than MSTR? And any particular reason why spot BTC is such a small portion of your portfolio?
But you do realize their business model does not include timing markets and their fly wheel accelerates during bull markets? Like, you do understand how MSTR’s accumulation strategies (for a lack of better words) actually works?
They can raise capital by selling common stock, which is how they've increased their USD reserve by a half-billion in the past two weeks. Yes, it dilutes BTC/share but that's the reality of a treasury company in a bear market. In a bull market, BTC/share goes up. So eventually at the bottom, buyers will come in and pick up both BTC and MSTR on the cheap. The root of the problem here really is that BTC lost half of its value in like six months. There needs to be genuine buying demand for BTC and not just cyclists and whale rug-pulls. People are more upset with Saylor -- who has been a perpetual BTC buyer in season and out -- than they are with all these rug-pulling whales and exchanges that actually hurt trust in the asset among retail. Even if Strategy does have to sell some BTC, it'll hardly be the biggest source of supply. Right now we have \~5,000 BTC selling from ETFs every week and about 3,000 BTC are mined every week. Miners have been a constant source of supply and selling pressure. Then we have all these exchanges offering rehypothecated (paper) BTC for gazillion-times short leverage trading that never get any hate. I don't know why Strategy burned through $1.5bn in cash reserves to pay off debt. It seems that is what the market has reacted negatively to. I'm sure their accounting department had some big-brained idea behind the decision but maybe they didn't expect such a backlash.
It's not all that mysterious. BTC goes down and the MSTR / BTC short sellers come out. Dumping reams of negative press into the ecosphere only helps their bear case as paper handed people feel compelled to sell. There is a lot money to made from liquidations as well. Incentives aren't that hard to understand.
MSTR is a leveraged bitcoin postion..I started buying at 110 a share. That’s why
Even as a crypto skeptic and an MSTR hater: A bank run is a real event that happens that causes the collapse of a financial institution when creditors all ask for their money at the same time, and the institution does not have the liquidity to repay them. Because STRC functions so similarly to a bond which is a type of debt, it is incredibly misleading to say "bank run" here because that implies that such an event would even be possible, which it is not. Even if all STRC holders started selling STRC tanking the price, this does not adversely affect Strategy at all - in fact, it is to their benefit, as they can just buy back those shares at a lower price (they issued them for $100, paid out a few dividends, and can now buy back at $80). They don't "have" to raise the yield. It's completely discretionary by their board, hence the yield staying constant over the past several months despite STRC trading at a discount to their $100 target. Basically their board is like the Fed, and they can change rates as they see fit. The only restrictions they have is that they cannot drop the yield by more than 25 basis points (plus some adjustment based on front month SOFR contracts) so they can't take your money and decide to pay $0 dividends all of a sudden. That being said, you're absolutely right about them fucking over MSTR holders. Selling MSTR at rates higher than ther Net Asset Value was their whole schtick since inception, and they will continue milking that as long as people will buy. Except this time, the money will go toward paying STRC dividends rather than buying more bitcoin.
If STRC fall to 1$ there's no return from that. MSTR have control over the dividends paid, but they still need to pay the interest on the billions loaned. Right now it's STRC paying for the interest. Without STRC, there's only one possible way for them to make money: Sell their bitcoin. If they don't pay their loans, the bitcoin will be juditially seized anyway and liquidated to pay the credors. Now you tell me: What happens if MSTR starts selling large quantities of their bitcoin?
STRC trades at $1 for 12 months. MSTR wakes up from hibernation and resumes 10% dividend after 12 months. Yield is 1000%. BTC delivers the promised 30% annual return eventually. MSTR pays unpaid dividends to yield 5% over the last 12 months and pays 10% going forward. STRC has performed like FED bonds in the past and pays 10% going forward, and thus trades at $100.
On the MSTR subreddit, if you even hint at the house of cards concern, you get instabanned. Echo chamber.
Definitely picked the wrong time to do MSTR contracts. Currently 5 contracts are down 90.38%, expiring 7/2. At least there is a little time left 🥲. I thought getting a great price when it was 115 was a sure thing, I am amazingly bad at this shit, and insanely regarded.
Not happening. I'm all in on MSTR and MSTX. You do realize that it is not trading at a huge premiun. The only way for Strategy to fall is someone to steal their wallet. If STRC continues to go down, MSTR will make a tender offer to buy them back and effectively make free money due to market manipulators that are depressing the price of STRC.
Note, it is still a house of cards. I'm not saying it is impossible for it to fall. It's just the structure has been setup to mitigate risk. There still is risk though! I don't invest in MSTR, rather BTC directly. Mostly because there ***is*** that additional risk of failing and losing it all. The only circumstance I would invest is if I wanted to like gamble with options or something for a quick gain or loss. But I don't really like doing that. Won't rule it out ever but yea.
10% btc 60 ASST 30 MSTR. So essentially 100% bitcoin+derivatives.
> If STRC de-pegs It's not a stable coin it's a bond. Bonds trade below par (their original sell price) and that's normal. If the price is lower you get a higher yield. There is no bank run. They aren't a bank. They have long duration loans without margin calls. I'm not a fan of MSTR, but oh my god people love to make up so much fake drama.
I’m buying MSTR aggressively
Not me. The best thing is to be 50/50 bitcoin and MSTR. The rebalancing let's you arbitrage MSTR's premium expansion/contraction cycles. Netting you MSTR's CAGR, with only a little more volatility than just bitcoin.
How is MSTR holding up? ... Oh. Oof. ETF inflows you say, in this lending environment? Sure OP, sure.
It’s because it’s literally as simple as more people are selling than there is buying. There’s no hidden conspiracy it’s literally that simple. Saylor and others thought never selling on the way up showed strength. Now, there’s no one buying like MSTR did, MSTR cannot provide liquidity and others are selling. Ironically, if Saylor would have sold some on the way up instead of just buying, he could inject some liquidity to stop the drop. Anyways I’m no expert, hindsight is 20/20
Remember what happened when he only sold 32 BTC? Logically, it shouldn't have caused that big of a reaction, but it did. He might have 10 month of dividend now, but not if conditions worsen. What happens if people keep panicking out of STRC? It's gonna de-peg even more. So he will have to raise the dividend. So he'll no longer have 10 months to cover that. Also to pay the dividend, he has to use up more of his cash reserve. So less money to cover the cost, less money to buy BTC. Less incentive for MSTR buyers, and the value of MSTR drops. If MSTR drops, so does his ability to get cash out of it. And will likely have to dillute the stock to stay afloat, but at the expense of MSTR losing more value, which affects STRC further more. It's a feedback loop. And once that feedback loop reaches a critical point, it could turn into a death spiral, and potentially quicker than expected as we've seen with the reaction when he only sold 32 BTC.
They have been smart enough in their various financial instruments and strategic debt and equity financing that it's a very strong house of cards. Yea there are scenarios where it would fail, but that scenario is like Bitcoin going to $20k for a pretty extended period of time or going significantly lower than $20k. This is also discounting that they would not be active in their survival as price falls. It's not like FTX or Celsius or something like that, MSTR is a bit more sophisticated in a sense that they have protected themselves much better.
Oh no. These are regular members of MSTR being banned. I recognize most of them.
I guess only certain MSTR posts get removed...
You must be bad at math. You can easily check MSTR financials on their website. They can easily survive a decade even if BTC is cut in half. And still more if their preferred equity holders regularly reinvest the dividends.
mine was shorting MSTR, somehow even more dogshit than btc
He had one.. He spent it on clearing some debt. Market didn't like that too much. Now he is bleeding MSTR dry to restore the cash.
Short $MSTR if it isn’t bankrupt already.