MSTR

Large-Cow9765

It depends on the product. For STRD, nothing. For STRC for instance MSTR has to pay interest on skipped dividends that will cumilate (they have to pay it off eventually but can skip a date).

Large-Cow9765

This is categorically not possible, they cant be liquidated on unsecured debt and convertible notes. Only MSTR can decide to sell bitcoin. Stop spreading BS.

gpt5mademedoit

Bitcoin can 100% go to zero. Gold or silver or diamonds can’t. Neither can most companies (at least where debts are less than assets). So MSTR def could with their 8billion debt if bitcoin tanks.

Striker40k

I wonder how long MSTR can hold out. It's still above their average cost but they are leveraged to the tits.

Y0l0BallsDeep

I'll buy in after MSTR and Tether implode.

Y0l0BallsDeep

What makes you think that? Unlike any other bank MSTR can't create money out of nothing. Eventually he’ll have to repay the money he owes his creditors—principal plus interest—or keep rolling that debt over. On top of that, he has ongoing obligations to shareholders and all the operational liabilities that come with running a business. His entire model is built on leverage. And leverage means borrowing Asset A to buy Asset B. If the value of Asset B (BTC) drops far enough to violate loan-to-value thresholds, creditors will demand that he post more collateral. If he can’t, they’ll liquidate the position. There’s nothing mystical about it. It really is that simple. Don’t get distracted by the bullshit Michael Saylor pumps out to keep the narrative alive.

TONNAGE1975

When does MSTR go bankrupt?

GabeDef

Nah. It’s my fault. I bought a ton of MSTR and then BTC shit the bed. Unfortunately, I’m going to buy even more MSTR to average down… so, I’m sorry for the next dump.

Backrus

Was, not anymore. Let's look at April low. NVDA, the biggest market cap in the world, did 2.5x from the bottom. BTC did like 50%. Even from bear market bottom it was underperforming META, etc. On a risk-adjusted basis is done until proven otherwise. It's also the only asset in the world this year that collapsed instantly the moment it went into positive gamma. And it should behave more like TSLA or gold in August - gap up and go, and you don't look back because gamma feeds onto itself. Free assets move like that, and, on top of that, are able to squeeze shorts. You could have been short BTC since December 2024 FOMC meeting and never be in danger. In a post halving year, with historically weak dollar and during later innings of the greates bull market in history. Let that sink in. Since BTC as freedom idealogy is dead, and has been for quite some time, I'm interested in outperforming debasement, and it seems like mega caps with passive flows are the way to go. Those and anything with decent momentum. Logically, one should assume that there will be frontrunning of new FED chair and ZIRP so bottom around May, but who knows. It depends how deep we'll go this bear. IBIT cost basis is at 80.5k. Selling will accelerate there. Zombie companies will start puking coins. MSTR will get delisted from indices because it's just a close fund (and for close fund with expenses being 6-10% below mNav is considered fair value). So my guess would be 30k-40k range as bottom. Maybe even below IBIT floor, why not? Unless US or Japan tumbles - BTC has never seen real recession so 4-digits is the possibility then. There's also a scenario that the real top was in early December 2024 because we got peak euphoria then and BTC has topped in gold terms (and it printed and confirmed nasty head and shoulders in gold terms now). All in all, fully financialised BTC aka hijacked coin has become everything I don't like about financial world so I sold my whole stack few weeks ago and I'm enjoying unfolding carnage now. But I can see reality when Wall St runs ETH without BTC because narrative is there and test pump in Q2 was quite successful.

Mediocre_Wealth_9035

Only problem is that MSTR average btc price is 75k. If it gets that low we might get Saylor defaulting on some loans which might drag the whole ship down a lot more

Minute_Knowledge_401

One more leg down and MSTR is fucked. Got my popcorn ready lol

JustLTFD

Agreed. There is always a catalyst. Mt Gox, FTX, LUNA, ect. The catalyst this time is MSTR is blowing up. They borrowed billions and have been buying the last couple years. Well they are out of money and their stock has burst. So they will no longer be buying and will likely need to become sellers to cover interest payments. Many saw this coming long before it happened. Somehow Saylor is still in denial about having to sell BTC. The day he says it there will be blood in the streets.

baIIern

What morons are in charge of this that they are buying MSTR for a wealth fund 😭

CliffordBBanes

Why are they putting their money into MSTR? Are they degenerates?

Y0l0BallsDeep

Or if BTC price drops enough to breach LTV and MSTR can't post more bitcoin as collateral. >>> Margin call/ forced liquidation

JustLTFD

"Trouble" is a relative term. MSTR can be just fine, if they sell their BTC to cover their obligations. The problem is, if they go from being buyers to sellers, the price of BTC is going to crash, therefore MSTR crashes also. It will be any week now they announce they aren't buying anymore BTC. Who knows when Saylor actually admits he has to sell BTC to cover interest.

magus-21

I'm not defending MSTR. And we're on the same page about how fucked up the crypto economy is. But MSTR doesn't have an obligation to pay back investors. Preferred dividends can be stopped indefinitely if they don't pay and don't intend to pay common dividends. It's obviously *not a good sign* if they do that, but other mechanisms will be what forces liquidation if it comes to that. I just think OP has an idea that investors have the ability to tell companies like MSTR, "Yo, pay us this money or we'll force you to sell everything." Unless they have a controlling stake, they don't. Lenders, however, do.

VeryThicknLong

He’s also made billions… how low does BTC actually have to go before MSTR is in trouble?!

JustLTFD

And MSTR pumped the price by borrowing billions. That's why it got to where it is. THEY ARE OUT OF MONEY AND WILL HAVE TO START SELLING BTC TO COVER DEBT. This could be the biggest draw down in bitcoin history.

Y0l0BallsDeep

Saylor is fucked.... Or to be more accurate, MSTR shareholders are fucked. Saylor will be OK and move on to the next grift

Y0l0BallsDeep

No, you are wrong—because you’re talking like these are normal operating companies instead of crypto-treasury leverage bombs. Companies like MSTR, CLSK, RIOT, HIVE, etc. aren’t regular equity structures with diversified operating cash flows. They literally are forced sellers if the underlying asset nukes far enough because: 1. They have USD-denominated obligations. Preferred shareholders don’t get paid in “vibes,” they get paid in dollars. If the balance sheet is mostly Bitcoin and Bitcoin is worth half of what it used to be, the company suddenly has half the liquidity to pay a fixed obligation. 2. Preferred dividends are not optional. If they miss those payments, shit breaks fast: preferred dividends accrue credit rating tanks cost of capital explodes new financing becomes impossible covenant breaches trigger restructuring becomes likely Missing preferred payments in the real world is how you end up sliding into bankruptcy court. 3. If revenue doesn’t cover the dividend, they MUST sell reserves. MSTR isn’t a normal operating business generating strong free cash flow. Their “cash flow” is literally: selling Bitcoin issuing debt issuing new shares If BTC collapses hard enough, those three lifelines all choke simultaneously. 4. Falling BTC → falling equity → rising cost of capital → forced liquidation. This is exactly how leveraged balance-sheet plays die. Ask anyone who lived through: mortgage REIT collapses commodity-linked trusts Terra/Luna treasury mechanics Celsius/BlockFi Once the collateral (Bitcoin) drops far enough, the capital structure becomes unserviceable. 5. Bankruptcy DOES happen if assets < obligations. A company becomes insolvent when asset value drops below liabilities, not when “investors want to liquidate.” These Bitcoin-heavy companies literally are structured so that their treasury asset value has to remain high enough to cover fixed USD liabilities. If BTC nukes to, say, $15k and stays there? MSTR’s ability to pay its preferred shareholders, coupons, and refinance its converts gets torpedoed. Then yes—they either: sell their Bitcoin to survive dilute shareholders into oblivion or collapse into restructuring That is liquidation. That’s how liability-driven balance-sheet blowups work.

Rainyfriedtofu

lol Yes buy the dips so I can see MSTR go up so I can short it again.

meshreplacer

That would be catastrophic for MSTR if price continues to drop.

JustLTFD

When the bitcoin treasuries like MSTR who drove this whole thing up have to start selling, you'll see $30k. Bitcoin never ceases to amaze. It always goes higher or lower then anyone would expect.

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Norway's sovereign wealth fund, managed by Norges Bank, has incurred significant losses exceeding $200 million on its investment in MicroStrategy (MSTR). The bank has been investing in MSTR since 2008 and increased its holdings significantly in 2024 and 2025. However, MSTR's value has dropped 38% in 2025, leading to substantial losses. Norges Bank's strategy appears to be tied to tracking indices like the Nasdaq 100 rather than a specific belief in MicroStrategy's prospects. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Sensitive_Election83

I took a bearish btc trade last week by buying puts on MSTR and doubled down on it today. If btc / mstr recovers you can thank me. Or you can also join me in this trade. We all know btc will go down again at some point, and seems like maybe this is the end of the cycle as this cycle got too frothy with crazy leverage which someone (Barron I hear) popped in October. We can go long and go short. I think this is the time to go short. And a year from now will be the time to go long once again.

VariatCA

And to the point, MSTR isn't going to suddenly panic and sell (let alone hit some kind of "stop loss" and have to begin selling) just because they're temporarily below their profit line. It will have no immediate effect on their holdings. Though sure, their stock price will have surely tumbled more by that point. It's not like MSTR wasn't -85% down from 2021 stock-highs through most of the 2022-2023 bear market. They still came out unscathed, even after dropping below their profit-line back then, too.

devCheckingIn

Yes, that's their average cost. But even if it goes under they don't have to sell any until debts are due. I think Saylor's biggest concern right now is the very real possibility that MSTR could be pulled from some of the index funds like Nasdaq-100, etc.

VariatCA

Some companies might be beholden to their shareholders, but guess who holds MSTR's decision-making authority? Yeah, Saylor, and he's said they have neither the interest in selling nor the need to. They're *still* over 10k above their buy-average, and could weather *years* being far below that figure, especially with the reserved right to suspend dividend payments rather than selling BTC to cover expenses.

bytemute

Public companies don't operate like individuals. They can and are forced to sell their holdings if their stakeholders agree to it. That is specially true for a leveraged company like MSTR.

VariatCA

If you bought something in cash and kept it at your house, then its value suddenly dropped -30%, would you be *forced* to sell (liquidate) it? No lmao. It's still your property, but just worth less. This is MSTR and their BTC holdings. There's no StOp LoSs / Liquidation point, they *own* it.

bytemute

I just want to know MSTR's SL levels. How close are we?

bytemute

Welcome to interconnected leverage markets. There is no such thing as enough money so people take whatever they have and buy positions in a separate market (real estate, bonds, another country's stock market). Then they get a loan backed by that equity and buy in their original market where they got their profit. Boom you have a company like MSTR. They are not alone. Everyone is on 2-3x leverage now. That's how you get these volatile swings. It is either a virtuous cycle or a vicious cycle. No middle ground.

Wild_Bunch_Founder

If it breaks below 65k MSTR is going to 💩 🧱

imfuckinglying2u

*\*nervously eyes MSTR*\*

AlertCrab9829

Atleast we didn’t buy MSTR

Mind369

One of my mistake is that I sold a MSTR csp at 275, crashed hard.

wildwych

Thank you for your detailed analysis of what's happening to BTC. I agree with most of what you say, but small investors are not responsible for the BTC situation. MSTR and others, the big institutions, and most of all Trump are to blame for the more recent instability in the markets. The billions they invest far outweighs the ordinary investors. I wonder if the root cause of the problem is that BTC was conceived as an alternative currency, not an investment vehicle. There is nothing supporting the price levels other than buyer/seller agreement.

AnyPortInAHurricane

we warned ya about BMNR and MSTR being scams COIN is junk $BTC is junk https://i.redd.it/j2c3o1qprf2g1.gif

biba8163

There have been a lot of people posting and commenting that institutions will just dump everything as BTC goes into a freefall causing an even worse bear market than before. Institutions DO sell but not to the degree of panic selling that retail does and they scoop the bottom better than retail does. Just look at institutional GBTC 13F filings and MSTR from 2021-2022. The cycles have essentially been broken and people are still expecting a deep cyclic bear market drawn down. Same as when BTC broke out of the bear market early and broke new ATH before halvening, the risk is that people are not going to be able to predict the bottom or the bear. **GBTC 13F and MSTR from Q4 2021 (BTC hit $69K) to Q4 2022 (BTC @ $16K)** | Quarter | 13F Holders | Shares | MSTR ₿ |:-----------|------------:|:------------:|:------------:| | Q4 2021 | 66 | 9,641,514 | 124,391 | Q1 2022 | 56 | 8,170,710 | 125,051 | Q2 2022 | 46 | 7,962,380 | 129,218 | Q3 2022 | 51 | 7,600,163 | 129,999 | Q4 2022 | 48 | 23,700,056 | 132,500

biba8163

Institutions DO sell but not to the degree of panic selling that retail does and they scoop the bottom better than retail does. Just look at institutional GBTC 13F filings and MSTR from 2021-2022. The cycles have essentially been broken and people are still expecting a deep cyclic bear market drawn down. Same as when BTC broke out of the bear market early and broke new ATH before halvening, the risk is that people are not going to be able to predict the bottom or the bear. **GBTC 13F and MSTR from Q4 2021 (BTC hit $69K) to Q4 2022 (BTC @ $16K)** | Quarter | 13F Holders | Shares | MSTR ₿ |:-----------|------------:|:------------:|:------------:| | Q4 2021 | 66 | 9,641,514 | 124,391 | Q1 2022 | 56 | 8,170,710 | 125,051 | Q2 2022 | 46 | 7,962,380 | 129,218 | Q3 2022 | 51 | 7,600,163 | 129,999 | Q4 2022 | 48 | 23,700,056 | 132,500

Backrus

And how will he pay dividends on his preferreds? He says they have 80 years of runaway but that assuming 1) badly calculated CAGR (it's nowhere near 60%, and it won't be nowhere near 20%), 2) that they would sell BTC - sell 1 sat and it's all over. MSTR is below mNav=1 which is only natural for closed fund with expenses. All that's left is for their volatility to converge to BTC vol and that's about it - it'll take time, but it'll be ugly. You have to realize that free BTC is no more - it got completely hijacked on November 19, 2024 by IBIT options. Now check when MSTR had ATH. Then chart MSTR/BITU and MSTR/IBIT - that's all you need to know about this ponzi-adjacent scheme.

Hefty_Cup_3484

Honestly the trend makes sense. A lot of these publicly traded firms are basically trying to become the “MSTR of ETH,” but each one has a different thesis. Bit Digital caught my eye mostly because they’re going all-in on ETH staking instead of splitting across BTC/mining. They’re hedging less, but seem to have an active strategy instead of just holding ETH passively.

RakesProgress

Sell BTC, Short MSTR. Once MSTR has collapsed buy BTC until your head caves in.

BoringPrinciple2542

[This is the thread & request that got me started if you want context.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/s/ViWrqdDCRO) “Combined value of liabilities and shares” is a total of the value of the Total Liabilities line item plus the value of the preferred shares (think I just used STRK marketcap). This was first calculated in USD value and then for each period I divided that value by the closing price of BTC the day that the reporting period closed to figure out the BTC value of that debt plus preferred shares. Separately, once total BTC holdings/common shares was calculated I subtracted the BTC value that represented the combined debt + preferred shares to get a “true” value for BTC underlying each share based on my understanding of the original request. Simpler Version: The initial request that I was playing with wanted to see the BTC per share and wanted to see the result if we subtracted total liabilities & preferred shares. Primary reason it’s important is just because I was trying to throw together the view OP in the original post had asked for. Regarding the liabilities line itself, a company has three categories on the balance sheet: assets (cash, BTC holdings, equipment, etc) which are used to generate revenue on the left hand side. Then on the right we have liabilities (this is the borrowed debt/financing) plus equity (invested capital). Ratios like assets/liabilities (debt to assets ratio) and similar are generally used as a metric for understanding how leveraged a company is and is useful in considering risk as well as how effectively a company is utilizing debt to drive revenue. MicroStrategies has recently begun issuing preferred shares (fixed dividends & priority to be paid in event of liquidation but no voting rights) in addition to common shares. I believe the original request’s logic was to see 1) how much BTC exposure an investor receives per share and 2) how much exposure is there after accounting for debt & the issuance of preferred shares. Presumably, the goal was to better understand what you are getting when you purchase MSTR vs just buying BTC or a BTC ETF. Going into it, I assumed that MSTR’s accumulation strategy would lead to increasing BTC/share so that over a long period a one-time buy of $10k for example could lead to a larger total exposure than buying $10k worth of BTC & hodling. Assuming I didn’t fudge anything though, this isn’t true as the company is issuing shares far faster than they are accumulating BTC. You would need to account for stock splits but surface level it appears that you need 10x as many shares in 2025 as you did in 2024 to have the same exposure. In other words, people who buy MSTR & hold over time will see their shares backed less by BTC and more by the MicroStrategy reputation as time progresses. Overall takeaway is probably that if you want exposure to BTC then buy BTC or an BTC ETF and stay away from MSTR.

BoringPrinciple2542

This is why the chart specifically addressed preferred shares vs commmon shares. The original request that had me goofing around with it was to create a view that looked at the average amount of BTC per common share while subtracting out the “BTC value” of total liabilities and preferred shares. So if you look at the data table above the chart that is addressed. Addressing the loans you mention, are one of the drivers for the massive reduction in BTC per share that you see around the start of FY25. Future convertibles weren’t part of the request but have a negative effect on BTC-per-share so even if we did account for that factor it shouldn’t affect the direction of the trend. Regarding the quote, I said “previously I would have thought”. Arguing with a rejected hypothesis is a strange move but if you want to do so then understand that the premise is based on the concept of gaining BTC exposure through MSTR so the thought is based on BTC-per-share not BTC price. As demonstrated, BTC/share is being diluted significantly therefore anyone who intended to gain indirect exposure is getting shafted and had a ~90% reduction in the BTC “backing” their shares.

pop-1988

There are shares and there are preferred shares. If you're only accounting for MSTR shares, you're missing the fairly recent practice of the company issuing preferred stock and buying BTC with the proceeds of sale. And then you need to account for the yield being paid to the preferred stock investors. After that, do the preferred stock shares convert to MSTR - diluting MSTR. If so, the future BTC per MSTR share is lower due to the conditions attached to the preferred shares Similarly, the loans used by MSTR to buy Bitcoin also have a condition allowing MSTR to convert them to MSTR shares on maturity. This is also a dilution of MSTR shares > longterm MSTR could be advantageous as you lock your position at time of purchase and the BTC per share would accumulate Not advantageous if the price of BTC falls

global_hodl

10% is SP500 and 90% is split between IBIT and MSTR.

Ok_Field_8860

Well BTC in and of itself is a speculative asset - meaning it (BTC specifically - not a reference to all crypto) has no inherent value outside of what someone in the future will pay for it. So it requires a marketing team to upkeep it at the values it’s seen lately. And the sub doesn’t like negative marketing that could hurt the BTC or MSTR price.

Ok_Field_8860

Some complexity here. But - in theory - Current mNAV is 1.16. Market Cap is $53B and debt (including preferreds) at $16B. So - if BTC price increases 25%. Assuming mNAV sticks at 1.16, market cap will grow to $71B - and if they take on no more debt (I know, but for the purpose of this example) that means their stock price grows 32%. Works in reverse as well. BTC loses 25% stock drops 32%. Now MSTR challenge is they have interest/dividends on their debt. They don’t want to sell BTC to pay it - so let’s assume their debt grows 10% to cover that interest. Now, a 25% growth in BTC only yields a 29% growth in MSTR. But here’s the kicker. A 25% loss in BTC yields a 35% loss to stock price. Where’s the break even - it’s if BTC grows at the same rate as their debt. So at 10% BTC growth the stock grows 10% as well. It’s a leverage play against BTC - so has all the volatility of BTC and then some. Another interesting tidbit. Because the mNAV is above 1 - assuming it does not change. When MSTR adds debt (and uses 100% of it) to buy BTC - in theory the stock price would increase with no increase in BTC price. Very nominal - like 1% change on 25% increase in debt. Anyways. This math is why MSTR trades above a 1.0 mNAV - and why (in theory) if they use all new debt to buy BTC it won’t decrease common stock holder value. Due to debt - common stock holder value grows (or shrinks) faster than BTC. Because the debt has interest, which we are assuming will increase their debt over time even without raising more for BTC the leverage on the upside is lower than the leverage on the downside. Meaning BTC going down hurts stock more than BTC going up helps it (by a few percentage points). Beyond this math - you must also trust the people managing the BTC and money - and Saylor has given reason in the past to be untrustworthy. One of those high risk high reward situations. If we had a crystal ball and knew whether risk or reward side was higher - we’d be rich. Alas.

capital_awesome

The loans come due 2028-2032 and are staked against btc. He has $58B worth of BTC and $24B of debt staked with BTC. The market cap should be $34B or 40% lower. The “strategy” isn’t working. Short MSTR long BTC. Perfect trade.

Pavickling

If MSTR is forced to start selling or starts selling covered calls below their avg. purchase price, $30K would be a strong entry.

TurkishBitcoiner

I am a long term MSTR share holder i know their strategy and dca. They won't have issues at all. As long as BTC grows 1.5% a year, and doesn't fall 80% and stay there for decades, MSTR shareholders won't have problems in the long term. Assuming 1.5% growth for BTC is also extremely low compared it's past performance of 80 vol, then 50 vol. MSTR will never sell BTC unless BTC and the stock market literally crashes much much much much worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

Scharman

just google MSTR average bitcoin price - last time I checked it was around $70k. If price dropped to their parity point they will have challenges. They are already seeing their share price drop, so will be interesting to see how they keep securing funding and maintaining their current debt.

BoringPrinciple2542

Double check my numbers… I pulled from several sources and put this together while jumping between meetings so could have some errors. If correct it looks like MSTR really nuked BTC per share in Q1 of this year. https://filebin.net/xa3ph8q1v3hlnogo

Scharman

MSTR doesn’t have the capital reserves for anywhere near 15-20k. I think they would fail at around 70k which is roughly where they bought in.

TurkishBitcoiner

Nvidia won't come in light with earnings, MSTR won't sell their BTC unless we go below 15-20k and stay there for few decades. December will come, QT will end, QE will come, china's 1.2 trillion stimilus check, usa 2000 usd stimilus check, the money supply reaching new ATH's and you think stocks and crypto will crash? The opposite is literally about to happen in the next few weeks.

imfuckinglying2u

MSTR and Saylor will be fine. Their investors, on the other hand...

devCheckingIn

MSTR going to be a penny stock soon.

GrumpyScroogy

Show me any prove institutions are buying bitcoin. And exclude MSTR

vremains

Is it ironic that I stack sats every day but I shorted MSTR 😅

Confident_Section568

He also commited fraud during dot.com bubble and after that And MSTR was biggest loss in dot.com bubble himself losing god knows how much

dataCollector42069

MSTR puts just printing money lol. I love crypto - it attracts ponzi's to bet against

phoebeethical

Any idea why the post would be removed from MSTR sub

pop-1988

This topic isn't relevant to cryptocurrency, because it discusses the fiat finance schemes being used as debt and pseudo-debt instruments by a single company. Who is affected if the preferred stock become worthless? Only those people who bought them It's obvious that the purpose of these schemes is to transfer the risk of Bitcoin price falls to the investor. The investor is aware of this, and chooses to accept the risk The dilution of ordinary shareholders' shares is also an issue. But those shareholders meet every year, and they re-elect the MSTR board. This mean that they're aware that their shares are being diluted Investor's choice. Investor's risk The real scam is those Redditors claiming that MSTR is a proxy for investing in the Bitcoin price market. It's a traditional stock market instrument. It's not Bitcoin

MeatKettle

Think, boy. It's going back up. And yet you sold at a loss. You gave away money for free! I'm sure MSTR appreciates your donation!

KenFX4

As a successful "early adopter" of bitcoin, I'm curious what your take is on the DATs that are popping up now. Are you a believer in MSTR and BMNR? Would you recommend some of us newer crypto investors (like me) skip the treasury stock investments and just go buy the coin directly through Coinbase or Cashapp?

Catchdown

MSTR is buying bitcoin except you give Saylor a slice of your pie for free. What a deal!

HesitantInvestor0

That's incoherent thinking. He isn't trying to time to bottom, in fact he CAN'T try timing anything even he wanted to. He can only buy when capital is flowing, when he can raise money. When is that easiest? When Bitcoin and MSTR is high. That's why you saw huge buys at local tops, and much smaller buys or no buys at all on weakness. It's the reason I don't like MSTR. Effectively they are handicapped, they cannot achieve a reasonable average buy in price.

Sanguinius

'We should just cheer for Saylor and MSTR to buy all the available BTC, because its main strength is decentralisation right? Right?'

VariatCA

It's always the ones that have literally no idea how MSTR's Bitcoin ownership or debt operates that are the loudest about "Saylor getting liquidated". Just a bunch of apes used to losing their paychecks on 0DTE stock gambling and think the whole world operates like that.

MikeysOnTheMoon

Where’s the guys saying MSTR is gunna get liquidated. Pretty much every comment in this sub yesterday 😂

CompetitiveAppeal663

You seen MSTR recently 😭

parntsbasemnt4evrBC

MSTR/ Alt coins are outperforming BTC< we might be headed to 97.5k now. ITs possible we get a lower low on BTC to sub 90k before reversing but depends on if there is one more big day flush on QQQ.

Complex-Photo-973

Fair enough — everyone has their own style. Just to clarify though: MSTR is volatile because it’s leveraged BTC, so it’ll swing harder both ways. Short-term it can lag, but over multi-year periods it’s still outperformed spot BTC because those equity raises stack more BTC per share over time. If you or anyone prefers stable, profitable businesses, totally reasonable. MSTR just isn’t built to be that type of investment

Complex-Photo-973

You’re looking at MSTR like it’s a normal operating company, but it’s basically a high-conviction BTC leverage vehicle. The “income/moat/secret sauce” isn’t the traditional business — it’s the fact that MSTR gives shareholders senior access to Bitcoin through a publicly traded, regulated company, with long-dated low-interest debt and zero liquidation risk (unlike leveraged crypto products). Equity raises aren’t a surprise — it’s the entire strategy. They issue shares when demand is high and convert that into more BTC. Historically, their BTC per share has still grown because the BTC they buy outpaces the dilution during bull cycles. If someone doesn’t want a leveraged BTC play, MSTR isn’t for them. But for people who do, MSTR has outperformed spot Bitcoin over multi-year periods, which is exactly why investors hold it. So it’s less about “understanding the business” and more about understanding the thesis: MSTR = long-term, conviction-based, non-liquidating leveraged Bitcoin exposure.

courtesy_patroll

From chat -  Strategy’s dividend products (STRC/STRD) are backed mostly by senior secured private credit loans, which are safer than junk bonds but riskier than Treasuries. The dividend is relatively safe because Strategy earns more on the loans than they pay out and can smooth payments with cash reserves and small MSTR equity sales. Principal risk is moderate—defaults can happen, but the loans are over-collateralized and short-term, which limits damage. Overall, they are fairly safe income products, but not risk-free like government bonds.

youhaveeTDS

To take it a step further, this year we had huge buys from MSTR and etfs.. for a measly 125k top, yikes, we would be lucky to see 150k top next cycle, Given that, we now have to consider if its even worth it, because many stocks and even gold will outperform it going forward

youhaveeTDS

#A year of huge buys from MSTR and etfs.. for a measly 125k top, yikes, we would be lucky to see 150k top next cycle #is it even worth it going forward? Many stocks, even gold will outperform it

Simke11

Safer for whom? If the stock dumps, certainly not for shareholders. Even if MSTR can continue to hold, it benefits no one apart from Saylor.

AnyPortInAHurricane

Doesn't matter, $MSTR was what pumped it to begin with with their ponzi

VariatCA

Bingo. MSTR is far safer than most people realize or give them credit. They aren't in danger if they drop under their average, and it will also take a *long* time even underneath 15k until an action like having to partially sell would ever be required. Shareholders would be stuck, but MSTR would still remain stable and can afford to just HODL for years if need-be lol.

300A24

> Short of a black swan event like FTX, Luna, Mt. Gox, etc, $MSTR

PirateSKB

I just looked at MSTR for the first time in a while, and holy crap whoever bought in August or during this peaks was a madlad lol

Escapement_Watch

MSTR pays a premium OTC by 7k on average.

dataCollector42069

Loving my MSTR puts now already pulled out my cost basis and now they are printing harder

blackjackn

Down about $5k. Not worried. Still doing my dca. If it goes to 85 I'll allocate some dca to MSTR for more leverage.

blackjackn

I'm still doing my dca as usual but if it goes below 85, I'll allocate 20% of my dca to MSTR for even more volatility.

tomsmac

You’re exactly right. I don’t care what Michael Saylor says, at some point MSTR is so leveraged he’ll have to sell and that’s going to take the entire industry down with it. (fyi, Saylor arrogantly says if bitcoin goes to $1 he won’t have to sell)

biggamble510

Pressuring interest rate cuts during high inflation, passing spending bills while cutting taxes. You know, general run a huge deficit things like the first term. Except it's different this time... It's not printing, at least not for Bitcoin or the bottom 99%. And that's going to be a problem. There's no real liquidity from retail waiting to enter. And institutional is fully engaged. What happens when MSTR, a ridiculous concentration of coins, starts to struggle with debt financing? Average buy is mid $70s.

Editor-Forward

His college fund is 100% MSTR

tpc0121

you realize that MSTR was around during the last bear market? or that MSTR's mNAV compressed to like 0.70 and stayed there for months? when they were more levered up? please do some actual research before posting dumbass takes smfh.

blackjackn

I'm dumping my Bitcoin and buying MSTR for the leverage.

viresennumeris

MSTR is not the reason bitcoin is up or down. They buy OTC. it’s not reflected in the market. Bitcoin is up or down purely bc of volatility, there’s no rhyme or reason. Bitcoin will continue to do what it wants whether companies/countries are buying or not or whether legislation is getting passed or not. It made it this far without them and doesn’t need anything or anybody to continue to succeed. It will succeed on it’s own purely based on its untouchable algorithm that can’t be manipulated by this corrupt world and that is the only calm we all need to continue to whether these drops mentally and come out on top when Bitcoin eventually goes back up

JollyPicklePants1969

Sure, and what you say sounds smart, but the real question is - are you correct? Your arguments make a lot of sense on the surface, but you make a lot of assumptions, and without actual data and analysis, it's just fluff. (typical retail lol). Not gonna lie, I'm retail too. I'm not a fund manager or anything, but I've been watching markets for about twenty years now. Here's my response to your points. 1. Forced selling happens and institutions are participants in that. I lived through 2008, and that was quite a lesson there, but it's impossible to know how deep any deleveraging is going to be in the near term, or which markets will be most affected. 2. I don't know why you made this point. ETFs aren't anything special. If you're saying risk averse participants will stop buying and start selling bitcoin, then sure. That's a given. 3. You might be overstating how overleveraged MSTR is. 4. Maybe, maybe not. 5. Didn't we already have a huge perp unwinding? Isn't the current dip a byproduct of that. It seems to me this fall has been the product of the unwinding you are talking about here. The question is, how much is past, and how much is in the future? 6. QE should arrive after pain in theory, as a sort of stimulus out of recession. But there are other driving forces now. I would say that what you are laying out is highly possible. It's not a given though. I've been in the game long enough, and wrong enough times to know that we could be at or near the bottom right now, we could dip further to 70k, or we could even head to 40k, but there's a lot of complexity to consider.

SwimOld5053

The part where you sell if it goes 16K 😅 MSTR didn't have such holdings in 2022.

kingsheperd

Which part? To me, you are the one talking nonsense. Why would MSTR ”explode” now if it didn’t when btc went down to 16k in 2022-2023?

kingsheperd

I love how MSTR is the ”tsar bomba” but came out fine when BTC bottomed to 16k last time, fuck, they were fine before that too. If ETH or btc even comes close to the last ATL I’m selling everything I own istg

spirax919

im an MSTR holder When BTC becomes the biggest asset in the world, Saylor will own damn near 10% of it MSTR will become the single biggest company to ever exist

binary_quasar

Anybody who says this hasn't looked into details and is a charlatan. Bitcoin would have to sit for an extended amount of time below $40k for MSTR to be at risk of **anything** beyond a stock selloff. People think Saylor has a automatic liquidation price like they're trading on fucking BitGet. You have no idea what you're talking about. Stop spreading FUD.