MSTR

HSuke

Oh. Now you're asking the smart questions and going down the misleading BPS metric rabbit hole. BPS is calculated as: (Total BTC) / (Assumed Diluted Shares Outstanding) Diluted shares includes convertible debt, so paying that off increases BPS. The problem with BPS is that it doesn't account for cash reserves or for preferred shares (except for the convertible STRK). It also doesn't account for BTC price. It's a misleading metric that can be manipulated. For example, they can keep selling and diluting STRC, and it just increasing BPS, which is why BPS is currently increasing. https://np.reddit.com/r/MSTR/comments/1thtje5/the_measuring_problem/ https://x.com/thelogman/status/2053156489422848062

beerbaron105

I hold 1050 shares of MSTR I am at break even point currently, I think next bitcoin cycle they do an easy 10x remindme! two years

bbatardo

Debt is debt though. Also the people that bought convertibles were shorting MSTR, so they will also unwind those shorts.

Awkward-Silver1333

Who really owns Bitcoin? Currently Satoshi and MSTR holds vast amounts.

Awkward_Potential_

That's inaccurate. Strategy's average price is 66k and BTC is at 77k. MSTR is 10x where it was last bear market.

FireBest59

First, there aren’t enough cyclists to be the reason why the price dumps, unless the mega whales are also cyclists. Which would mean this is a self-fulfilling prophecy and you’re betting on the wrong side either way Second, the price before the halving isn’t what determines the cycles. The cycle works on a time basis, where the tops, bottoms, and major price movements consistently happen around the same timeframes after the halving starts. And once again, this cycle followed almost the exact same timing as every other cycle Also, the ATH happened barely 2 weeks before the halving, which can easily be explained by the sudden inflow of money from countries, ETFs, MSTR, and all the other bullish adoption news. It wasn’t far off anyway, and it’s mostly irrelevant because the overall price action is still basically copy-paste when you compare the timelines. Every cycle, people say “this time is different” because of some supposedly unique factor, and every time they end up being wrong. This cycle will probably be no different, especially with an even weaker argument Look at the cycle low multiple chart and you’ll see the only real difference is diminishing returns and smaller price swings, which makes sense because of the growing market cap, but they still happen around the exact same timeframes. Yet somehow people still compare cycles on a yearly basis like normal stocks instead of comparing the days since the start of halvings. And those timelines naturally shift slightly forward each cycle because mining difficulty doesn’t adjust fast enough for block production times to consistently stay at exactly 10 minutes The only way we’ll know if the cycle is broken is if the bottom isn’t around October before a new bull market erupts

Dmarine999

It certainly feels this way.... BTC treasury companies, lead by MSTR, are hoarding and making it less decentralized. I feel like this is not a good thing. I have just hit 2 coins recently, but I feel that I'm too late too the party.

Starkey18

Veryyyy generous. MSTR liquidating even 10% of their stack takes me 50% of bitcoins price out

UC_DiscExchange

So we can agree that MSTR **does** hold the amount of Bitcoin they claim. Now the concern is risk of colluding with the board/execs to embezzle in the future? Doesn't that risk exist for every company?

HSuke

Why can't they just act like a normal company and focus on increasing long-term shareholder value and EPS? That's really frustrating for STRC and MSTR shareholders.

Laffargan

I hope my MSTR 100 puts will be cooked,then I can buy some real Bitcoin with it 🤣

No-Put7619

I don't understand. Are you asking why would MSTR cooperate? Or why would the government buy? I'm looking at Intel as an example. Something like this recently happened to that company. I guess I would have to go back and see why Intel went along and why the government bought Intel. I'm not saying any of this is likely. I'm just trying to create a scenario suggested by Luke Groman.

No-Put7619

I just watched Luke Gromann on TFTC. He suggested that Warsh could “cap” the price of Bitcoin — but when asked how, he admitted, “I have no idea.” I don’t think it’s likely, but if the Fed (or Treasury) wanted to try, the only plausible route I can imagine would be using MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings. MicroStrategy holds about 4% of the available Bitcoin supply. One theoretical option would be to acquire a controlling interest in MSTR to gain access to that Bitcoin. A forced buyout or large purchase of MSTR shares could, in that scenario, let officials influence — or at least remove — a meaningful chunk of supply from the market. It’s an unlikely and extreme play, but it’s an interesting thought experiment. As a side effect, a large buyout of MSTR at, say, $800 per share (financed by expanded money supply) would also inflate U.S. stock-market valuations, making them look more attractive. I'd like to hear any alternative theories about how that might accomplish this.

Previous_Valuable873

Honestly, I think BTC will never reach the non inflated price of 100k high ever again of 2023. Look at the USD, how much it devalued since. Tether and MSTR bound to spin out of control both of them, pulling the whole shit down. (I have been around since 2012 and through btc-e and mtgox days...) BTC had its run, now its just a puppet of centralized government surveillance. I'd look into privacy coins if I were you guys, to continue the actual aim and vision Satoshi had with BTC.

RUYYRUYY

AFAIK, the last time Saylor said anything about how much bitcoin he, not MSTR, personally owns was 2024. Who knows if he even has any?

benditbackwards

remember its not one man, its all the retail that are buying STRC and MSTR that made make up the 4%

StitcherSteve

MSTR 😉

No-Put7619

I like Doomberg. He’s smart, funny, and well spoken. But a recent take on BTC and MSTR reads like a conclusion looking for a reason. Previously he was negative on Bitcoin for reasons unrelated to MSTR — MSTR wasn’t part of the critique. Now that MSTR is succeeding, his main concern is suddenly MSTR. It’s like saying, “I don’t like X because it will never work,” then when person Y succeeds at X the argument shifts to, “I would have liked X if not for Y’s success, but now I’m worried.”

HSuke

I could've sworn you were 100% in MSTR and BTC.

dataCollector42069

best part of crypto is shorting it. MSTR puts printing

HSuke

Can confirm. The BTC bulls in the MSTR community mainly buy MSTR instead of STRC. If anything, our buying STRC helps Microstrategy fail harder and faster. It makes it less sustainable in the long run.

devCheckingIn

MSTR stock being pummeled this morning.

dataCollector42069

Idk how "reputable" news sources like CNBC and Bloomberg don't just straight up call MSTR/STRC a ponzi

Glad-External8640

In less than 10 years all BTC will be bought by MSTR and other big boys....the need for seeds and passwords protection will be wiped out for ever (fortunately)

Crivos

They went all in on MSTR instead.

Scared-Metal9294

I’m down $625k as of Friday. Bought BMNR 8 months ago, an ETH DAT thinking it would preform similar to MSTR and once adoption started to gain momentum it would follow. I know a lot of people recommend to hold crypto for a long time (not sure how long) however, once there’s a correction in equities, I think we’re going to see severe bleeding in crypto.

Illustrious-Boss9356

The bonds are convertible into equity, so while its 0% they participate in your upside. In scenarios where MSTR does very well, the cost of capital will be much greater than 0%. Also, it's not 0% because they are retiring the bonds at a 7-8% discount. So it's really like 3-4% bonds (maturity in 1.5 years) vs 11.5% preferred stock. My understanding is this pref is also non-cumulative (most post-GFC prefs are). So they can skip payments but can also resume them to build credit market reputation again.

r2d2overbb8

Bitcoin and thus MSTR do not have any cash flows. (The business intelligence company is at best, treading water, and not important) MSTR has partially used preferred shares and debt to finance a large portion of their bitcoin purchases, so that when combined after this buy back of debt strategy owes roughly $1.647 billion in preferred and dividends every year going forward. How do they pay it? Issuing more MSTR shares will make BTC Yield go down, so will selling bitcoin, and so the only option is to issue more debt or preferred shares. You do that a few years in a row and due to compound growth that number quickly spirals out of control.

r2d2overbb8

you have it backwards. Convertible bond arbitrage requires buying the convertible bonds and shorting the shorting the stock. The imbedded call option in the bond is the long side of the trade, so to off set it they need to short the stock. They are betting on volatility. They want MSTR's stock to go up and down as much as possible because every big move they make money. If MSTR just had a slow constant decline of 60% then they probabaly would not make much profit. Bitcoin and thus MSTR have been very stable compared to last year which is why those vol traders are more willing to sell back their debt.

r2d2overbb8

from my quick calculations with this move MSTR's weighted combined debt/preferred rate went from 6.84% to 7.61%. Any time you can increase your costs by over 10%. You got to do it.

HSuke

Convertible bond purchasers have long-term short positions on MSTR. 1. If the price of MSTR goes up (from when they purchased it), they gain the premium from the loan and can offset their short with the convertible shares. 1. If the price of MSTR goes down, they gain from the short position, and redeem the loan for the principal amount in cash. And since the price of MSTR dropped 60% from their purchase price of $433, they must've taken a huge profit from their short positions.

ProceduralTaco

I think people didn't react much because he is just telling the truth. Whatever you think about MSTR Saylor is being very transparent. He could have to sell btc but he also may not have to. I don't really get why people buy the common stock when you can own a btc ETF or just btc.

Excellent_Can2901

More like a nice invention to get normies to give MSTR shareholders more fiat to buy Bitcoin with.

BitcoinBaller420

You understand perfectly why this is a controversial prediction. I haven't actually seen the earnings call funnily enough, but I feel pretty tuned-in to Saylor's mind (not surprised that they said they could sell Bitcoin, also not surprised the world was surprised because everyone loves to exaggerate and no one can just see the nuance of the fucking thing)... and he sees what I see because he helped me see it... Strategy does not need to sell MSTR common for STRC sales to make sense for a very long time with Bitcoin at least like $750k / coin, and further, they have decided they don't need to sell MSTR to avoid spooking credit markets and wreck the network effect before it starts. It's started. It's on. And they are going to just lever-long as hard as they can during / inducing an insane mind-melting short squeeze that will expose a lot of people swimming naked out there imo. ps I dig your style too homie

el_rico_pavo_real

Love this post - only thing I am not sure of is the zero MSTR ATM. I believe, and I could be wrong, they like to sell a proportional amount of MSTR to maintain the amplification ratio of STRC… so I expect some MSTR ATM, just not a ton, relative to STRC or previous ATM sales.

BitcoinBaller420

**tl;dr - markets are stupid and Bitcoin is ridiculously underpriced** Here's what happens next. STRC has its first $2 billion day today, and Strategy is the primary seller. This weekend, Bitcoin continues to go up as Strategy deploys these new funds into spot. By Monday, the world realizes that Saylor is seriously not selling MSTR common, when Strategy releases their weekly sales / purchases and there is 0 MSTR on there vs $2.5b+ in Bitcoin, despite nice premiums available, Bitcoin strength, and juicy mNAV for the taking. Bitcoin per share soars in just 1 week, and the mNAV starts looking stupidly low. Strategy eventually starts tapping the ATM at a much higer immediate profit, and this efficiency just pours more jet fuel on the fire as the greatest short-squeeze in world history begins to take shape over the next year, driven by credit market demand for STRC's high-return-on-very-low-risk-tax-deferred asset qualities. Right after that, the Clarity Act will be passed, and Strategy will quickly announce at least one partnership with a major bank to realize their dream to back a 0-vol money-market USD account with Bitcoin as the backing collateral. The US bank savings deposit base immediately becomes much more accessible to start moving into Bitcoin, now with regulations and approvals to the highest levels, and guidance from advisors these people have trusted for decades. That's yet another big deal in the future demand curve for Bitcoin (not to mention a huge win for the everyman facing an impossible battle with a 0% savings account that leaks 5%+ buying power every year). I went balls deep yesterday, I'll be in there picking up some deals on the 3-month prefs today. STRK imo is stupidly under-priced right now.... 10% ROC and I get a perpetual call on leveraged-Bitcoin?! What are we talking about here. I'll be on the bid side again today, see you there.

Yoloballsdeep

The whole idea of a crypto treasury company that does nothing but accumulate Bitcoin is absurd. The main reason MicroStrategy (MSTR) exploded in value is because Michael Saylor built a narrative around buying Bitcoin indefinitely, at virtually any price, and never selling. So what happens when a company that built its entire reputation on relentlessly buying Bitcoin suddenly starts selling it? That completely undermines the core thesis investors bought into in the first place.

No-Masterpiece2246

OK kudos to you for remaining relatively clean. I think you'll agree you're the exception rather than the rule. Gary is back at MIT as an endowed chair, I hear he lectures about how crypto works, no thanks to him. I think the finance industry is in need of some serious reform too. It seems like SEC is mostly a paper tiger and/or an attack dog for opponents of big hedge funds and banks. In 2020-24, Crypto projects that were viable but required a US legal entity were killed in their sleep by fear of some big US government hammer. The arbitrary enforcement ensured that some of the brightest projects (ie Ethereum and Solana) wasted years and billions trying to "comply", and contorted themselves into knots for lawyers and pencil-pushers, all to adhere to laws that weren't even designed to apply to decentralized protocols. This US regulatory circus caused the rise of DeFi, which is now the locus of crypto fraud. USA had the unique distinction of being hostile to crypto innovation. We were on banlists with Sudan, North Korea, etc., just so crypto entrepreneurs and users wouldn't get threatening letters or worse. Legit companies like Binance set up straw man entities to adhere to silly rules that seemed to be invented on the spot. All of this was downright embarrassing to Silicon Valley. Yet somehow the most US-regulated crypto company in history, FTX, stole billions and cratered confidence and the entire crypto market. You must admit that's incredibly ironic. And we all know what happened, SBF and his insider family bought off the entire sitting administration. They didn't just steal crypto, they stole COVID relief money, and they laundered billions thru the Bahamas. Rumor has it half of the Ukraine Aid never made up Zelensky's ass and came back into the US via FTX. No serious investigations into fraudulent transactions at FTX by US Congressional reps was ever done. With the help of Caroline's dad's and Bankman's direct line to Gensler, SBF planned to monopolize crypto trading in the USA. Meanwhile Coinbase and Binance remained hamstrung in a toxic legal stew. After all of this nonsense, what is the best way to prevent crypto fraud? Education. I encourage you to expand your horizons and call out fraud inside the halls of Wall Street. I say that Saylor's MSTR is the biggest fraud in crypto, and Lutnick's Tether is a close second. And what is needed to make that fraud obsolete is to spread the word. Think of Trump's token, how much damage has it really done? People are smarter than they look. Finally, I hear that Credit Default Swaps are quietly being sold to offload toxic private lending and real estate debt. Never seen this movie since 2008. What can be done about it this time? Thanks.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

Even if that scarce asset goes up forever, it doesn’t have to go up in a straight line or even over a 5 year period. What MSTR did was put a timer on their position, they can’t wait for it to go up “eventually” it now has to go up “soon”.

Hfksnfgitndskfjridnf

A strategy based an issuing an exponentially increasing amount of securities that carry a 11.5% coupon isn’t a real strategy, it’s a guaranteed failure. It isn’t the first 10 Billion of issuance that’s the hard part, it’s the next 100 Billion you have to issue to keep it going that becomes the problem. If they issue 10 Billion of STRC per year, after only 9 years all their capital raising will go towards servicing those dividends and not towards anything else. So they can’t issue just 10 Billion a year, they must issue progressively more and more each year. With how volatile Bitcoin is historically and how little it’s used in the wider economy besides speculation this is guaranteed to blow up on them. They might push the price up in the near term, but all that does is allow them to keep issuing more STRC, which they will assuredly issue as much as the market will allow them. Inevitably Bitcoin will decline massively from a recent high and the market will know MSTR is in an unsustainable situation. The market will anticipate MSTR sales of Bitcoin and will wait for it to happen.

Torshein

Please dump your Bitcoin so Saylor can buy it and I can buy the .03% he sells. MSTR is a net accumulator, forever. They bought 1500+ today alone.

A1JX52rentner

Im 70% BTC 30% MSTR so. Still think its an intresting topic.

Calm_Situation_1131

It's because Saylor and company have a fiduciary obligation to MSTR shareholders above all else, including BTC. Once the company runs out of cash, they will be forced to suspend the dividends and sell BTC instead of diluting MSTR common stock to death. MSTR owes around $1.5B in annual preferred dividends, along with massive amounts of debt that can be redeemed early. That's $1B in putable debt in 2027, $6B+ in putable debt in 2028, and $800m in 2029. MSTR runs out of their $2B cash reserves next year just paying the annual preferreds. I expect the board to suspend the dividends before then as the debt must be paid first. People bagholding the common stock and preferreds are about to understand how Saylor pretty much kicked off the dotcom implosion and nearly went to prison for securities fraud. He's a grifter through and through.

PrestondeTipp

Yup lol the "flywheel" - issuing STRC to benefit MSTR shareholders, and then issuing more MSTR shares to pay STRC shareholders Robbing Peter to pay Paul 

Friendly-Profit-8590

I took it as selling bitcoin when shares of MSTR were worth less than the total value of their btc holdings. Meaning it made sense to sell btc and buyback MSTR shares. Could be wrong. Maybe they’ll just sell to sell but that was my understanding of it. Otherwise this grand experiment will be able to continue in as long as people are willing to buy their preferred’s and/or btc does in fact have a future.

BuddahFi

Agreed, if the scenario is isolated to only selling STRC, fund dividends, then buy more Bitcoin with the proceeds. However they might also use the sale to buy back debt, or just buy back shares of MSTR if mNAV is low. That would all increase Bitcoin/share for shareholders (which is ultimately is their business model). It all depends on the current mNAV and whatever the market is doing. Selling Bitcoin is not a goal, it's just a tool in the toolbox for gaining shareholder value.

StackingSats1300

I think it's projecting for the next phase of Bitcoin. At some point we all believe BTC won't be easily purchasable for fiat. And with the moves that MSTR has made it's making them look like a financial services company - I think it's possible that they are setting up that next phase, whatever it is.

Friendly-Profit-8590

Idk about that. I get what you’re saying but Bitcoin wasn’t exactly worthless before he started buying. No doubt what MSTR is doing has brought attention to it and presumably raised the price with their purchases but it wasn’t like some $2 alt coin. Whether Bitcoin has long term value or not is another discussion but it wasn’t doing just fine before him. Imagine it’s hang around even if MSTR didn’t.

thewaterisboiling10

MSTR trading at $193 and mNAV is at 1.31, btw

SilverPrivateer

Dear Bitcoiners, Hope you're enjoying the pump! Just remember - you would be at 35k without us. Did you read the latest Saylor tweet? "Buy more bitcoin than you sell..." That's right. If you allow our stock to dip below 1.2xMNAV, it now becomes accretive to shareholders to sell BTC to buy MSTR. That's right. Your precious coins will get a big, stinky dump. This is a threat. The MSTR army is kind. But we will not tolerate betrayal. You scratch our back, we scratch yours. You support our chart... we support yours. But if you lets us fall, we're taking you with us. We stink on you and all MSTR holders get bitcoin gain from the sale. That's right. We gain bitcoin, you get agony. Your final warning, from the MSTRer army. So let's keep this pump going... it would be a shame if the music suddenly... *stopped*

Tickles_and_giggles

Sell my MSTR stack and retire. Keep the BTC for the next generation.

el_rico_pavo_real

Cash in on my MSTR / ASST, keep my sweet, sweet, Cold Storage Corn right where it is.

HSuke

Coffee did not adequately prepare for that video. I'd like to see a debate between actual experts on the topic. I could tell Jeff was just using marketing lingo and misleading figures to hide the weaknesses in Microstrategy's plan. Jeff's math is defining "failure" as when a company is completely bankrupt and ALL their investments go to zero, whereas most normal people would define "failure" as when a company's investments go down in price 80%, new investors stall, and everyone stops talking about the company. That's one of the main differences between what Jeff's saying and what Coffee is saying. Their plan isn't as risky as Coffee tries to make it sound, but it's also nowhere near as safe as Jeff tried to make it sound. Overall, the plan works really well if BTC keeps going up over 10% annually and the number of new STRC investors (who are liabilities through dividend payments) doesn't increase drastically vs BTC price. But it really sucks if BTC price stagnates or goes down for several years. Microstrategy can definitely survive, but a lot of STRC and MSTR investors will pull out if Microstrategy is forced to continue selling STRC, MSTR, and BTC.

RandomsDoom

MSTR is basically constant liquidity… not to mention the rest of the worlds BTC buyers and sellers… most of you are crazy. All you have to do is zoom out on the charts to see we are at the top of the spike

loganbootjak

Who cares? It's the market. He was public with what he's doing, and if you disagree then short MSTR and BTC.

AcostaJA

MSTR sold about 2000 BTC from last 24h

CellAlone4653

My first job out of college was at MSTR. Back in those heady days when they were known for making BI software.

Novel_Board_6813

There was no financial crisis whatsoever. BTC fell “just because” The day there’s a financial crisis, BTC will be exposed to it for the first time ever. Then we might know if it’s a real asset or if MSTR will survive

Dependent_Stay_6954

No!! I got a fright as I thought MSTR had been liquidated and from my perspective that's what I thought you were implying in your post title.

BattleCreek-michigan

Saylor will pull the best trade off in history when bitcoin gets to 150k and he takes 20 billion in profit and buys more MSTR SHARES MAKING ALL MSTR RICH 🤑! IMO

clintstorres

Do you think that MSTR will past their previous high of Bitcoin per share this year?

brkinard

MSTR selling BTC....lots of cope from the maxis.

Strange_Specific655

MSTR too

K42st

They make profit when the price of BTC rises, they are just taking investors money 🤭, they are using it to buy BTC hence why they offer dividend payment to those investors who are taking risk and hence why the payments will be more than if those investors just stuck their money in US bonds. The whole issue with these treasuries everyone is missing, the problem is they rely on BTC increasing in value which it does but they MSTR and others are suppressing the spot value buy buying OTC, in other words their model works great if BTC increases in value they can harvest profit pay the dividend and repeat they buying, but it shows stress if spot price is down or supressed. There is a word for this it’s called a foot gun and that’s what OTC buying is because only spot reveals true value, but no one wants to pay more for BTC they all want it cheap and as much as they can get .

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Even if BTC was to go up forever, the issues of something similar to a "bank run" and things getting out of hand with the selling of shares and yields can still happen. But Saylor doesn't seem to have taken into account that bull cycles have had drastically diminishing returns each time. We don't have 600x returns anymore. It went down to 23x. And this last bull cycle was down to 8x. And everyone was already so disappointed by those returns. What happens if next bull run the returns are too small and are even more disappointing? What happens if BTC falls just short of a new ATH? What's gonna happen to MSTR and STRC? We might not even need to find out since we might only need a new drop for the house of cards to unravel.

devCheckingIn

Yep. The company has no way to generate revenue other than "selling shares". At least BMNR has some revenue from staking ETH. Saylor's whole thesis is that BTC is "going up forever Laura" but clearly that's not quite how it works. It will make an ATH and then dump 50% and hang around there for three years. With ETFs nobody needs MSTR to get exposure to BTC anymore. And the idea that MSTR "smooths out the BTC volatility" isn't true either because MSTR stock has even wilder swings than BTC.

YePeX

People are assuming that if MSTR ever sells some BTC, it is automatically bearish. I do not think it is that simple. The real question is what the sale funds. If it strengthens the capital structure, supports STRC growth, or lets MSTR take advantage of panic-driven dislocations later, then it may actually be part of the long-cycle strategy rather than a retreat from Bitcoin. There will always be accumulators and panic sellers. That dynamic is exactly why fixed-supply assets can benefit when funded by inflationary currencies. The bigger picture is still the same: Bitcoin is becoming a hedge against monetary disorder, banking distrust, and eventually maybe even settlement-layer competition. I would not tell anyone to go all in. But having exposure to BTC/MSTR/STRC as a hedge against how unstable the world is getting still makes sense to me.

DivineMackerel

Why is it massive? Anyone who believed MSTR would buy bitcoin ad infinitem, should not be allowed access to manage their own money.

DivineMackerel

This company should not get any free airtime. It's a scam from scam artists. Its stock was under $10-$20 a share for a decade. Any growth in that stock is 100% tied to the value of Bitcoin now. Secondly of course they are going to sell Bitcoin. It's all purchased on credit. They have to pay operating costs and debt servicing at some point. Any shareholder gets exactly what they deserve. You know the history of it's leadership. You can buy or sell MSTR's only asset just as easily as you can the stock! If you started a mutual fund with only 1 stock in it's portfolio, no one on Wall street would buy it. No matter how much lipstick you put on that pig, it's name is still Ponzi.

HSuke

Also, if you watch the [streamed YouTube video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chp-9I6Wros), the live chat and reactions are gold. Saylor also talked about being able to maintain STRC dividends indefinitely as long as BTC ARR is over 2.3%. I'm skeptical about that metric. They COULD do that, but that would really, really hurt MSTR shareholders. What's the purpose of MSTR if all BTC bought with MSTR is just going to be used for paying off STRC dividends? This metric does not seem fair.

HSuke

I watched the whole 2-hour meeting. **Both the CEO and Saylor spent about 30 minutes talking about selling Bitcoin, so they're serious this time.** Here are my takeaways: * This seems to be a response to shareholders being upset that MSTR has been cannibalized and taken a backseat to buying BTC. They also want to reduce MSTR short selling and FUD. * Microstrategy's overall goal is still to increase MSTR price, BTC price, and BTC/share ratio. They are still focusing on STRC as their main product. * They want to pay back convertible bonds/debt early and discontinue selling any further convertible bonds. This means selling ~10% of their company value in either MSTR, BTC, or STRC. * There are a LOT of variables they're considering for when they want to sell Bitcoin. There's no simple formula they're using. * One of the main criteria they mentioned is whether mNAV is under 1.22, which is their breakeven point under which it's more advantageous to sell Bitcoin. * They want to maintain a reserve of about $2.5B (or 1.5 years in STRC dividends) in cash equivalents.

azdcaz

MSTR accelerating their BTC purchases through the success of STRC. Consistent buy pressure from the ETF’s. Both causing buy pressure never seen before. The Clarity act likely passing soon.

sylsau

**🚨 THE SACRED COMMANDMENT OF BITCOIN IS DEAD. 🚨** For years, the $MSTR playbook was a one-way black hole: Raise fiat. Buy Bitcoin. **NEVER SELL.** But you can’t pay an 11.5% fixed yield with diamond hands. 💎👐 ➡️ 💸 To fund the massive dividend obligations on their new $STRC preferred stock, the ultimate Bitcoin whale just admitted the unthinkable: *They will have to sell BTC.* The "infinite money glitch" is officially over. The market's biggest buyer of last resort is now on a billion-dollar cash-flow treadmill. **What happens to the market when the black hole reverses? 🕳️🔄**

steelchairframe

Love all the MSTR fan boys that were screaming never selling trying to now rationalize what he's just said. Now he has said he'll be dumping on your head like everyone else. I love bitty like the next person but even Stevie wonder could see the original plan of 'never selling' wasn't sustainable considering BTC doesn't generate an income. Welcome back to reality regards.

LegitosaurusRex

Assumptions like [this one](https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/comments/1n37isc/bitcoin_per_share_the_metric_that_actually_matters/)? >It what ensures MSTR outpaces BTC over the long run, regardless of what mNAV is doing to the price short term (hint, it cannot compress another 60% like it has since Nov) It literally fell 68% after you said that, lol. You should hedge your statements with "I doubt" or "I think" when you're guessing at things.

SilverPrivateer

Hello bitcoiners. This is a threat. If MSTR gets below 1.2xMNAV, we will DUMP on your heads. Big, stinky dumps. You prop us up, we buy. You betray us? We stink on you and all MSTR holders get bitcoin gain from the sale. Don't bite the hand that feeds. Your final warning, from the MSTRer army.

funkinaround

On [https://www.strategy.com/financial-documents](https://www.strategy.com/financial-documents), you can find the MSTR 10-K. This form has their balance sheet. On the balance sheet, you can see the relationship between MSTR's assets, including Bitcoin, and liabilities, including debt. They have $58.8B in Bitcoin and $8B in long term debt.

fan_of_hakiksexydays

I'm starting to think we might not get that "really mild" bear market. People have been saying it would only drop to $40K. It would be "the most bullish bear market". "No 80% drop this time". But MSTR and STRC might crater all that.

brkinard

So Saylor is now open to selling MSTR BTC......what a cuck. Thank God for Tom Lee!

Ganonstonk

It sounds like you've already made up your mind with your limited understanding of how MSTR and STRC work. Your other comments show you have literally no idea how it works so there's no point in trying to have a conversation. and I was responding to this comment "lowkey feels like one of those things that works great in a bull vibe but gets real quiet when sentiment flips" It doesn't even make sense because we're in a bear market and sentiment is in the gutter already and last month they raised 2 billion dollars to buy bitcoin and are about to do the same over the next 10 days. If you want to form your opinion based on how you feel go for it, but don't go around acting like it has any merit whatsoever.

bkx90

bought a ton in the 60s and even got some MSTR under 110. I'm good.

r7908

If you don’t want to hold bitcoin directly, dollar cost average a bitcoin etf and MSTR. And hopefully some other responsible investment choices.

callebbb

I mean there is plenty of liquidity. MSTRs coins pale in comparison to globally traded volume on any time frame greater than 24 hours. Then again, MSTR isn’t selling, doesn’t need to, and has no plans to, so it is sort of a straw man argument.

devCheckingIn

Yeah the whole point of creating STRC was to raise more capital because BTC has underperformed so poorly the last two years that MSTR common shares are going nowhere and he can't milk that anymore. Which reveals the entire hole in his BTC treasury company strategy.

SilverPrivateer

Retail is here. We're in MSTR stacking sats, not buying your peepeestinkycoin. Trillions in volume in the greatest cryptocurrency product designed while stinkpoopcoin that used to be at 50m is now worth dust. Maybe time to make the switch to bitcoin and mstr?

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Normally I'd say that's very hopeful. But since STRC, those rallies are much more worrisome than positive. Because now MSTR is hanging over this like a shadow of FTX. Every time it rallies like this, it's more of a reminder that the black swan is growing into something that could become even worse and come back to haunt us down the line, in a bigger way than previously thought.

cyger

I disagree, most of those coins are in separate wallets in 50 BTC chunks, it would take time to acquire and sell all them (perhaps at significant expense) . The ETFs and MSTR could absorb 1M in sales. That is pretty much the level of selling that took us down from 120k to 60k over the last year.

dmitryaus

Yes Bitcoin and MSTR are overvalued. One has to go under.

callebbb

Look into STRC. If you’re bullish on Bitcoin and don’t mind the correlated risks, it’s a yield bearing product which only has downside credit risk if Bitcoin fails. I’m using it as a cash slush fund that pays dividends monthly. They might go to a twice a month dividend soon, pending shareholder approval. STRC is a preferred stock product MSTR sells in order to continue purchasing Bitcoin. I hold both MSTR and STRC and Bitcoin, because I’m very bullish on this whole ecosystem expanding and eating the fixed income/bond market.

HesitantInvestor0

The answer is because retail moved from Bitcoin to MSTR and STRC last year and most of them are 50% underwater still. All the hope they've got revolves around Saylor sending them to the moon. I'm not even against owning some MSTR, but Saylor is an absolute car salesman and anyone who thinks he's a super genius is huffing gasoline. He's IMO one of the big reasons Bitcoin has been lacklustre the past year. People rightly see Saylor as being bad for the space.

cyger

The long term is 50 years according to Saylor. And with MSTR buying more BTC then mined it is almost a self fulling prophecy that target CAGRs will be met. I feel it is a safe plan.

tekina7

I mean anyone investing in any STR* product, including STRC, is just betting on the BTC price going up in the long term. So the same number of units are worth more in dollar terms. So if you bought 1000 units of BTC for $1000, you keep getting back $10 every month by selling a certain amount of units you initially bought into. For instance, if price goes up and doubles, you get that $10 back selling 5 units. This math only works for the investor if the price keeps going up; so even though the investor owns fewer units over time, in dollar terms the value is still roughly the same or more. The way MSTR makes money is by betting that BTC will appreciate more than the ~11% they're giving back to the investors and that delta is their profit. (Or loss in case the BTC price appreciates less than the fixed return %.) Personally I feel if you're bullish on BTC then invest in BTC directly - either onchain or vanilla DATs; because if you're convinced BTC will go up eventually, then why cap your returns to a fixed amount lower than the actual price appreciation. You're just paying MSTR to sit in the middle and take the cream on top, only value add being they're smoothing out the short term volatility. If you feel BTC won't do as well as the fixed STRC returns, then don't invest with MSTR at all because why would you invest somewhere that might end going bankrupt and eventually cause a full loss of capital.

urko_crust

Yes, this is pretty much the trade? The entire premise of all MSTR operations require Bitcoin to perform well over the long term. If it doesn't, all shareholders and bond holders are totally screwed, which is where all the risk is. If it does, then probably it will work out unless there's some other risks that are hidden in the financial engineering. These hidden risks I think are what make everyone uneasy/have them peg MSTR as a Ponzi. Return of capital mechanism is a means of avoiding tax on dividend payments. I don't think it makes it materially different than other dividends beyond tax treatment? Probably some technicals there I'm unaware of. The entire set up is a speculative attack on the dollar in favor of Bitcoin as the harder currency, but not dressed up with those words because that would be politically unwise

JeremyLinForever

The real question is who really cares about it anymore? You a basically get near risk free dividends of 11.5% on STRC preferred stock and about 100% dividend on Bitcoin and MSTR covered call ETFs. Who really cares what a shitcoin is doling out on you staking their said shitcoin?

SilverPrivateer

"retail isn't here" Yes we are. We just decided to beat the system instead of buying stinkcoin or poopcoin or whatever you want to sell. We went into MSTR and financial engineer to hover up the 12 trillion dollar bond market into the king of finance, bitcoin. Retail is in here in a HUGE way - we're just smarter, more informed, and know how to stack sats. Endlessly.

SilverPrivateer

Buddy, you're retail. The guy pumping your bags? (assuming you didn't buy altcoins) Saylor and the MSTR gang. We're the next wave of savvy retail who aren't buying jpegs or stinkcoins or peepeecoin, but using financial engineering to stack sats.

Friendly-Profit-8590

No. MSTR reports earnings. No buying.

devCheckingIn

no point to anything else. if you really want a beta play on BTC might as well just stick with a MSTR offering (warning: earnings this week) because alts are cooked and can easily drop another 90% from here.

oo0000000

MSTR is one thing, but treasuries around the world are craving for any kind of dip. 30k would be a god given gift for many but it won't happen at this stage of adoption. Still cannot dismiss possibility of going to 45-50k with strong bear market across broad market

L00PYLL0YD

Nope. MSTR / STRC will buy any dips. I don’t think it will drop to 30K USD.