MSTR

AidenTai

Well, if you look at the buyers, it's more spot (ETFs, companies like MSTR and retail) that seems to be buying. The normal tradefi seems to be more quiet, so those whales aren't taking all that much interest in raising prices now. Longs haven't risen as much as you'd expect, which actually means any drop from here might not be as drastic as the last time we had a similar setup play out.

OrangePillar

Strategy is leveraged bitcoin. When bitcoin goes up, Strategy goes up faster. But when bitcoin goes down, Strategy also goes down harder. If you like bitcoin, and a lot of us do, its volatility might be enough for you without the leverage from MSTR. In that case just buy spot bitcoin. MSTR exists for portfolios that can’t easily access spot bitcoin. If you can buy spot, and you don’t love volatility, buy spot and leave MSTR to others.

lamensterms

Yeah this feels like a terrible direct for MSTR.. Stinks of classic crypto scams with manipulated mechanics and price control and stuff The AI ads are the cherry on top

yadius

Buy the NASDAQ listed stock $MSTR through the bank's stock brokerage.

dataCollector42069

I don't think you are smart enough to realize. MSTR issuing new shares devalues current share holders lol

SilverPrivateer

This place? A ghost town The buyers of BTC are whales and Saylor for MSTR while you guys... I don't even know what you guys do here anymore haha. At least I'm buying bitcoins through my MSTR and keeping this market alive for ya'll np

KateR_H0l1day

1. STRF (Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock): The most senior preferred share, designed to be overcollateralized with lower volatility, often considered similar to investment-grade securities. 2. STRC (Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock): A unique, high-yield flagship series with a dividend rate that adjusts monthly to keep the share price near $100. 3. STRK (8% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock): The only convertible series, with each share convertible into 0.1 shares of MSTR common stock, positioned between STRF and STRD in risk. 4. STRD (10.00% Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock): The most junior preferred stock, sitting directly above MSTR common stock in the capital structure.

callebbb

You call a 50% CAGR since Jan 1 2014 bad performance? Thats at the lows of this cycle. If that’s bad performance then S&P 500’s 11% CAGR over the same time frame must be garbage. I get the whole “past performance doesn’t dictate future results” mantra. Obviously I am not assuredly saying Bitcoin will continue at that pace. But to argue that it will suddenly become a bad investment, when historically it’s been THE BEST investment, is asinine. Same for MSTR. It is up, at today’s valuation, 700% since they adopted a Bitcoin reserve strategy. 🤷 My money is on BTC and MSTR. My cash is in STRC, earning a monthly dividend of 1%. And I’ve been in this asset class since 2016.

Excellent-Notice6325

Do not forget to add some Micro Strategy (MSTR) thats Bitcoin on steroids.

Sleavitt10

The stock price of MSTR and their ability to borrow money (which is not the right term to use anyways, because preferred stocks aren't actually considered borrowing money; he's paying dividends, not interest) has no effect on STRC so it doesn't matter that that is out of his control. For easy math, let's say he has a hundred billion dollars worth of bitcoin. If it goes up 2%, that would be 2 billion dollars of dividend payments. He would sell 2 billion dollars of bitcoin to pay the dividends, and he'd still have a hundred billion dollars worth of bitcoin. It's really easy to shit on Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related companies in the middle of a big drawdown, but time will tell. I think that over time Bitcoin will continue to outperform most other investments on a risk-reward basis, and I believe that MSTR stock will outperform Bitcoin. I also believe that STRC will continue to be a safe investment that will provide a steady stream of income for people who want exposure to the ROI of Bitcoin without the volatility of Bitcoin.

TheRhythmTheRebel

The value on Kraken on listing will be pegged to the crypto market cap and general sentiment. Look at MSTR, COIN, BMNR, CRCL, Gemini and countless others. As far as compliance is concerned Kraken is certainly more respected than its counterparts. So failing breaches or something tangible, they’ll be fine… Agree on comments above. They filed a while back and this timing couldn’t be worse for them value wise. Regardless, I don’t understand why you would invest in any of these companies if you own cryptocurrencies… Spread it out a little..

baIIern

Starting to sell would be the end for MSTR

Notoriousrb

The majority of people buying STRC are retail though so your point is invalid. MSTR holders are now facing perpetual dilution unless dividends get suspended. Saylor said he is going to issue 21 billion STRC. That's 1/2 of their current BRC holdings... It doesn't take a genius to work it out.

callebbb

On top of that, STRC is a variable rate preferred. So the rate is liable to change. In fact there are predetermined rules, subject to change at MSTR’s board’s discretion, that dictate how that rate changes in an effort to keep the shares at $100. On top of that, the preferreds have varying seniority in payout. If I’m not mistaken, STRC is the most senior. Saylor’s bet is that he can gobble up the $100+ trillion bond market. There are way too many people with opinions on the matter that just have no clue how the fintech stack of MSTR works, and what position you tech from an investment thesis standpoint, when you buy these products.

RevengeRabbit00

If you made a bet in 2022 that MSTR would not sell bitcoin you would have lost. It doesn’t matter that it was a wash sale and the bitcoin was immediately purchased back. I don’t think those sales are legal anymore but who knows what reason there could be for selling at this point.

shakdnugz

One concession is that Strategy determine the number of STRC outstanding, so it can never get "out of hand" per say.. They can limit the issuance to the amount they believe they can afford, it's not like a JPM or Citi can just print x number and expect a dividend.. So with that in mind STRC < BTC holdings notional. 2nd it's not protocol, decentralised or liquidity based.. The funding comes from declared and reported assets. He's said it a million times but its "stepping down" the vol, so if we anticipate >12 ARR, then Strategy pockets the alpha and pays out the rest in dividends, and as the industry matures, you shouldn't necessarily expect them to need to sell, they could collateralise stock, some other financial instrument, or the underlining bitcoin. Compare that to say a Celsius, or Luna which has a less broad base user base than bitcoins, where liquidity was provided by retail and MM. You would need to expect a run on BTC first, before MSTR, or STRC is at risk -- no where near similar to a run on Luna or Celsius. Disclaimer: I don't own or endorse STRC or MSTR; NFA.

Glazindon1

For context, I already own some spot bitcoin, IBIT, and ASST. I’m probably at around 35% allocated to bitcoin at the moment. Will be much higher if I fill port my TFSA into an ETF, I also considered MSTR the CAD hedged version of MSTR

NotAnotherRebate

ETF all the way, maybe even MSTR for a more leveraged buy. Buying the actual BTC is just asking for the possibility of getting your coin hacked/stolen, you forgetting your keys, or you get scammed out of them.

Paladin340

$MSTR or $MSTE from here going forward.

Business_South_7956

Have to count how many MSTR investors own the equivalent shares.

JoeSmith716

I have IBIT, BITX, BITO, BTC, GBTC. Also a coinbase account and MSTR stock, probably the equivalent of 5 or 6 bitcoins.

No-Put7619

For me it both is and isn't. It bends my mind. It seems that the only way to fight MSTR is to let Bitcoin rip higher in dollar price to force MSTR to use more dollars to get less Bitcoin. Even if you do that MSTR still wins but they don't win as much or as fast. Also, it feels like STRC demand has a correlation to the private credit crisis...But I may be imagine it.

Deep_Decision4441

While MSTR refuses to provide their btc addresses for reasons (which I don't love), they ARE audited regularly by respected auditors, which would presumably raise any red flags about missing BTC.

donttakeitfrommebut

I dont think so, when a exchange stops They will ask you to move your coins to another wallet. When MSTR stops, im pretty sure they will pay out your share.

ThreeTonChonker

Wrong. MSTR is buying physical Bitcoin. Why make up bullshit?

CoffeeAlternative647

That applies to MSTR too. There will be a day when proof of reserves will be mandatory and these guys will be left only with his underpants.

Glad-External8640

equivalent to shares .....MSTR holds for shareholders like some exchange holds on behalf of people

behyot

60% self custodied Bitcoin 20% MSBT 20% MSTR

Logical-Tax-4462

MSTR can be wild ride though, goes both ways pretty hard. I've been watching it for while and when BTC drops even little bit MSTR just gets hammered way worse For that amount maybe split between direct BTC and some of these ETFs? The yields look nice but always check what's behind them first. I learned this hard way with some other "safe" crypto yields lol IBIT seems solid choice if you want exposure without dealing with wallets and all that

ThatCommercial3587

MSTR all in

Mysterious_Olive3418

MSTR is a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. You as a shareholder will never own a Bitcoin.

ProgramLow8782

So they're taking MSTR's playbook re. STRC... wowsers

Aggressive_Estate688

This sounds more like a custody problem than an investment one. Moving to MSTR just to avoid self-custody risk means giving up control completely. A better move is fixing the setup. Trezor stress usually comes from the seed phrase. Tangem removes that, no seed to manage, just backup cards, much easier to live with long-term. I’d keep the BTC and simplify custody instead of switching assets.

TraderJulz

You do know that Saylor is a convicted fraudster right? And he's running the same scheme with MSTR

fucken_jim

You have NO control over that BTC, therefore the BTC MSTR have is not yours. If you only own MSTR shares, you have control of 0 BTC. Simple.

volocom7

Late to reply but reading back our chat, I do agree with you. Bitcoin is what should be bought over MSTR. That being said, I do personally think its reasonable to give MSTR a portion of my portfolio. The reason is because they are building the bridges between hundreds of trillions of dollars in fiat world buckets (bond market, equity market, dividend stock market) to Bitcoin. I think its a magnificent mechanism they've built and I think having some fiat money in their equity will do well for the forseable future. Super long term I think very little investment vehicles will exist outside of Bitcoin. Its hard to fully wrap my head around that phase of a paradigm shift like this.

Lavayo

MSTR alone excludes a few thousand people per week from ever becoming wholecoiners.

geneius

Exactly. MSTR can sell or borrow against that BTC without asking shareholders, thus shareholders don’t own the coins.

Djidji1997

In fact, it’s a smarter move to buy MSTR now. Ride up the bull, sell and put it in STRC. Next bear accumulate in real BTC

Major-Baseball-5391

the key point in your argument is "sole trustee". Shareholders of $MSTR are in no way the "sole trustee", Saylor probably is but the shareholders aren't.

pretendingtobebroke

MSTR is not an ETF, it's a company which happens to own a lot of BTC. Owning MSTR shares does not entitle you to BTC.

BakingBreadBB2

The MSTR "rally" in question : Price: 139.89 USD 1Y performance: -55.08% - 1Y price performance: -171.56

Illustrious-Boss9356

But for the purposes of calculating how many people can own rental properties, if there are 10 on a street and they're all owned by LLCs, it would be disingenous to say "no one owns those homes". You're removing the $700k MSTR BTC from the supply because they're owned by a corporation but in reality that corporation is owned by people. So therefore I would argue those need to be included in the supply when calculating people who own >1 BTC.

Althea520

When everyone ,everywhere from the news, the internet proclaiming again BTC is dead going to zero. We never went below $63k didn't touch $59k. I have been thru a few bear markets in the last 8 years and HODLED everyone and stacked. I do not see some 30k drop in October. There is way to many financial institutions involved now. Not to mention MSTR buying like a crackhead looking for a fix.

Illustrious-Boss9356

But MSTR is owned by tens of thousands of shareholders, prefholders, debtholders, etc.

el_rico_pavo_real

STRC is simultaneously pumping my Corn, MSTR, and ASST bags lol niceeeeee

snek-jazz

> from 2027 upwards ( how many BTC do you expect MSTR to have then, and what price of BTC (before your assumption that MSTR sell any)?

L00PYLL0YD

STRC/MSTR and Iran preserving value in BTC with the tolls additionally.

AdAcrobatic4002

MSTR eating up all the supply + some seller exhaustion kicking in

hames100

it’s pretty necessary for a serious bear. we need institutions like governments and MSTR to give up on it and dump their bags.

ProgramLow8782

MSTR's preferred STRC just bought a billion dollars worth of BTC through it's ATM issuance. They've been gobbling up all supply over the past month and a half and it's starting to consistently trade over 100 (on par) so the excess is used to buy BTC. check out [strc.live](http://strc.live)

BakedGoods

yeah i mean look, if you're imagining a scenario where the demand dries up so completely on their common and preferreds that for 2 years they have to use cash then sure, they're in a bind and likely they won't actually dilute they'll just return the BTC to the capital stack and fold. diluting the shareholders consistently over time isn't viable. so if that's the edge case you're betting on you're welcome to do that, the rest of us will buy MSTR and ride this thing up. point is we're not there, and for the last few years selling shares has been accretive.

BakedGoods

as long as they continue to offer a product the market wants (preferred shares, leveraged bitcoin exposure) they have a resource (trading volume) they can monetize by selling more shares into the market. notwithstanding the almost 2 years of cash they hold to pay dividends without share issuance, if you're saying what if people stop buying MSTR/preferreds, then yes that's a problem, but i'd be curious of how that could come about if BTC's trajectory continues. a bet on MSTR is just a leveraged bet on BTC. if BTC fails MSTR will, if BTC continues MSTR will as well.

BakedGoods

yeah of course it's a bet they can consistently increase BTC per share (ie buy BTC with no dilution). every stock is a bet. 2024 their yield was 74%, last year it was 22%, this year after Q1 it's already 5%--this means in the last three years there has been no dilution in so far as the BTC per share decreased. the reason people want a financially engineered stock over spot bitcoin is the bet it will outperform btc in the long-run. since aug 2020 BTC is up 500%, MSTR is up 900%--seems to be working.

No_Cod972

Some would say STRC is MSTR's iphone moment...

Spl00ky

Um I don't think you understand. I could short MSTR and then watch it go up 20% in a day, in which case I would cover my short. Then it could drop 50% over the following months.

TooFewTulips

Not for you. (assuming you’re short MSTR)

HSuke

Oh yay. More future dumping of MSTR to pay for STRC dividends

Paladin340

I'm irresponsibly long $MSTR 😉

Flat_Flounder_581

This may work for US individuals but does not work for US corporations. Capital losses can only be used to offset capital gains on the corporate side. So BTC treasury companies like MSTR are tax inefficient. Net gains are taxed but net losses are not deductible.

L00PYLL0YD

It is defo a valid opinion. That said, I own MSTR shares within a tax free wrapper. I like both.

BitcoinBaller420

No, but you can own STRC for a few days when it depegs, capture most of the dividend, and then move your money back into MSTR when it approaches 100 again and come pretty close to it. There are tax implications for the gains but if you do it in a tax sheltered account it works great.

docherino

99% of tradfi don't understand MSTR and even majority of Bitcoiner's don't get it. When i see people on twitter say Saylor will get margin called i just laugh

BitcoinBaller420

The fear of leverage is palpable, but it is creating a huge opportunity in MSTR. 

BitcoinBaller420

MSTR is the clear winner here. No margin calls, massively underpriced both in dollars and relative to Bitcoin, and your buying power is still stacked in spot Bitcoin in the Strategy vault so you are still directly contributing to Bitcoin becoming a store of value. 

Free_Entrance_6626

Do you hold any MSTR?

BitcoinBaller420

A critical point to understand is that buying power stored in MSTR, or any preferred like STRC, is not standing outside Bitcoin. The buying power you put in to these products is stored as freshly acquired spot Bitcoin on the Strategy balance sheet. It’s very different from owning, say, options or futures that might only fractionally translate into actual bitcoin demand.

BitcoinBaller420

Strategy (MSTR) has created a perpetual preferred product (STRC) which yields 11.5% dividends paid monthly with return-of-capital tax treatment. While the product is relatively new, the demand has been huge.  The return and sharpe on STRC will compete for the attention of both the $300T+ credit market AND the hundreds of trillions in equity markets, where people dream of a volatile 10% or a low-vol 5% yield.  These new buyers are shifting allocations into STRC, where they are often buying directly from Strategy. Strategy selling new STRC at $100 is what compresses the product volatility.  When these sales occur, all the new money goes straight into Bitcoin spot buys in the Strategy treasury. 

AutoModerator

Post is by: ScholarPrize1335 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/Buttcoin/comments/1sercte/this_sub_is_not_smart_enough_to_understand_the/ Point 1.) Every investment but MSTR loses purchasing power to inflation. Fiat in MSTR grows in value the more that fiat is less valuable. Point 2.) Fiat will go to zero and BTC will go to infinity. When dollars are essentially worthless MSTR will be worth an insane amount of worthless dollars. Point 3.) Scarcity and value are the same thing. The Vaquita is the rarest animal on earth and farts through its blow hole. If those farts could be harvested and stored as an investment they would be the rarest/ most valuable thing on the planet. Point 4.) Saylor knows if your are HODL or have been disloyal. Currently the person with the most money to invest in buttcoin has that money from buying buttcoin puts. But if that person tries to put their dirty fiat in MSTR Saylor will find them and devalue their shares. Point 5.) Return rates from the last 15 years apply to debt issued today. Buttcoin went up so much that gains from the last decade will easily pay for interest on any and all debt even if buttcion never goes up again. 6.) The name "strategy" is pure genius 3d chess game theory. If you have a fruit stand that doesn't sell Mango it should be named Mango fruit stand. Strategy has no real strategy which means no one can effectively position themselves on the other side of a non existent strategy. Stack, HODL, and & F\*&k fiat!!! Multiple people correctly pointed out that Saylor is like Santa Claus. To that say **"You better not sell, you only can buy** **Don't look at the NAV, I'm telling you why** **Saylor Claus is coming to town** **He's selling junk bonds, so he can buy** **More buttcoin, no matter the price** **MSTR stock is going right down** **Don't look at benchmark index's, they just lead you astray** **He knows if you've been bad or HODL, so HODL for Saylor's sake!** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Scameroochymondo2

My Grandama, 85 years old , just bought $500k MSTR , reckons she’ll double her money in less than 1 year - I doubled down , legend

EndSmugnorance

I hope I live to see the day when Tether collapses and takes BTC and MSTR with it.

docherino

MSTR stock. You are betting on mNav expansion which typically happens in a bull market

umirinbrah29

30% MSTR, 10% BMNR, 10% COIN, 10% CRCL, 10% XXI, 4% RIOT, 4% BLSH, 4% MARA, 4% CLSK, 4% ASST, 2% ABTC, 2% BRR, 2% NAKA, 2% GLXY, 2% FWDI If it wasn't obvious, they are all crypto related stock tickers FYI

dj_destroyer

If you assume BTC goes back to a new ATH -- for example $150k -- what would you expect the share price of MSTR to go up to? Would the stock also top it's previous ATH (\~$455) due to the tight correlation with BTC price? Or would it perhaps not reach the previous ATH due to issuance of new stock/dilution?

Strange_Specific655

It’s gonna be different now because sure the market cap is high but the float is going to be a few million coins smaller with MSTR and other institutions holding forever

IncurableCrush

Lost $400k putting 1mm into MSTR at close to BTC ATH then trying MSTR Options then selling for a loss and moving it all to MSTY then sold that dog and put it into MSTW

Defiant_Ice_4860

No. MSTR is a different beast. That is an exponential again, not a power law. Very different. Imposes execution risk regulatory risk and other risks.

Tubby94

So I can accelerate this even more, with more efficiency by buying MSTR.

Zigxy

Uhh so the premise of this article is that there was a “bullish divergence” on March 31st. But by April 2nd MSTR had lost its entire “bounce” and was down 7% from March 31st.

MobilePenguins

I’ll get downvoted by some true crypto diehards but this is why I just use the stock market. MSTR and IBIT for example. Theres nothing to manage, no wallets to get hacked. You sacrifice self custody for well… no self custody! It’s managed by Wall Street for you. Can still buy and sell, can’t get rug pulled by the Nigerian Prince or a sketchy link. No seed phrase to lose.

randallmauel

Im actually getting ready to start accumulating again. BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, LINK. Prices look pretty good compared to 6 months ago and I was buying at that time. Now might be a good time to open small positions in HOOD, COIN, and MSTR and begin some accumulating. There should be plenty of time to build decent positions since my budget is limited and I DCA. Im down quite a bit but actually quite confident the coins and stocks I listed will come back strong.

Selmemasts

Sure but Metaplanet raised their holding by 14%. 45k for MSTR is only 6% so there I that

KateR_H0l1day

Buying MSTR is over a $120, but MTPLF is under $2. There’s a big difference for a reason, when MYPLF finally get their Mars and Mercury Preferred’s approved for sale, they’ll quickly move to second place. But they’re never catching Strategy, and the price difference between the two will remain high. However, the percentage price increase could be a different animal altogether 🤷‍♀️

Repulsive_Spite_267

Hey man. I hear ya.  Not everyone is cut out for the responsibility of self ownership. Its one of the main things that puts most people off owning it....and why ETFs are a thing. I wouldn't keep it on kraken. Any exchange is risky.  I wouldn't buy MSTR because that's high risk. An established brokerage would probably be your best bet. Unfortunately im not up to speed on those so you'll need to dyor

baIIern

>One just has to notice that it can be a hedge and get the others together. Pyramid scheme :D Yeah, MSTR started it and some already followed

Subject-Chest-8343

Some big players are staying, like MSTR, but others appear to be capitulating. Like MARA who's selling their bitcoin to go into AI computing. Isn't there usually a capitulation phase before bitcoin starts climbing again ? We might be in it. Personally, I'm steadily stacking bitcoin and MSTR, ASST and 3350 (Metaplanet) stock.

OkFarmer3779

The thing worth watching here is the ATM share issuance pace. Strategy's BTC accumulation is almost entirely funded by selling MSTR equity, when the premium to NAV compresses (which it does in drawdowns), the flywheel slows or stops. At 762K BTC they're already \~3.6% of total supply. The path to 1M BTC in 2026 requires either the premium holding up or new debt issuance. Not impossible, but the marginal buyer premium keeps shrinking as the strategy gets more crowded with imitators like Twenty One Capital.

General-Market5580

Why is MSTR, srry little bit of a new gen here

Ill_Location4524

MSTR

Subject-Chest-8343

I think MSTR is significant. 800k changed hands in the last 30 days, but how much of that is daytrading ? How much of that is for transactions ? Buyer changes fiat for bitcoin, then seller receives bitcoin and changes it back to fiat. If, say, the volume of coins really related to people increasing or decreasing their position for the long term is more like 300k, then MSTR buying like 35k in a month is significant I think.

AttemptKitchen

People saying, where are the institutions and countries/states buying BTC? I only see Strategy and nothing else. They dont get that most institutions, countries and states are buying through MSTR and STRC.

harvested

800K coins changed hands in the last 30 days. MSTR not too significant overall We're locking in about $600m a day of realized losses (people that bought higher, capitulating lower), this is what is needed for bear markets to form a floor. Important to understand what you own.

FuckM0reFromR

Lol we'll see how you feel in 6 months XD And once MSTR cracks, the flood of BTC will be legendary.

L00PYLL0YD

A lot of people saying it will drop lower. UK here so talking GBP. In 2024 it went down to 38K roughly. When it dropped to 5 on fear and greed recently, it dropped to 45-46K. MSTR alone have bought a lot among other companies and countries and people buying for 2 years is shrinking the supply among the usual other lines, such as losses and people burning sending to the genesis block. I don't think it will go much lower, but welcome it, because regardless, DCA accumulation is smart...

YouAreAHugeUser

*please god, let MSTR go delinquent. Please god. Please

jacestrachan

Disagree, we’re in one if the strongest phases of Bitcoin, I don’t see how we aren’t 1mill plus from here in the next decade and MSTR will do MULTIPLES of that

Darkerjev

You aren’t there yet young padowan. There is no “other stuff” I invest all my money into bitcoin or bitcoin derivatives like MSTR, IBIT, STRC, etc. There is only investing in bitcoin. There is no second best.

rs1971

Between actual BTC and MSTR it's about 15% of my net worth at today's prices. It's enough that I'll be set if BTC every really does go to $500k and not so much that I'll be destitute if it goes to zero. I don't intend to ever buy any more of either, regardless of what happens with prices.

Gambler_Addict_Pro

Yield-starving savers? 12% is more than the average SP500! The yields is simply too generous (too good to be true).  I hope it works out since I’m betting on STRC. I’m hoping STRC brings so much Bitcoin to MSTR, that it will push the price back up.

DRX-trade

Hey man, good callouts on the bearish sentiment. MARA deleveraging is a valid point, but single corporate actions often aren't the sole driver for sustained trends. ETF inflows cooling is notable, yet MSTR consistently accumulating shows conviction from other big players, so it's not a total institutional desertion. From a prop trading perspective, we're less focused on headlines and more on the charts and managing risk. Losing the 50-day MA and testing supports is absolutely key. But projecting an absolute $45k based purely on a percentage drop isn't how we define risk. Instead, define your *own* clear invalidation levels for your trades. What specific price action would make your long thesis invalid? Size your positions based on that. The 'altcoin bloodbath' is standard when BTC corrects, so factor that in. Focus on your invalidation and sizing.