MSTR

Wild-Cup7515

Buying under 100k isn't risk free though. MSTR company acts like a convertible bond to give investors exposure to btc volatility. Saylor and mstr collectively own less than 2.5% of BTC supply. It's big yes but it wouldn't be radical to think of a situation where BTC hits 40k. Not to mention Trust in crypto lowering after Trump came into presidency and I don't say that because the price is down or it has volatile swings.

JustLTFD

Wait until MSTR goes bankrupt. Then think about entering. No point in considering crypto right now with them on the brink of starting to sell in under 2 years. It’s going to be ugly

mathaiser

So my June 27 MSTR leaps still have a chance? Lol.

cherrypoplar

He's obviously trying (and failing) to stop BTC from falling, and probably using up his so-called cash reserve in the process. Hasn't helped MSTR prices though.

Chemfreak

Sounds like i need to do more research on MSTR. I have avoided it like the plague because I would rather own the real deal at a non inflated price per BTC and I have enough long exposure on BTC.

Chemfreak

I'm not in the loop on how MSTR is structured, but does MSTR have the liquidity or cash flow to service its operating expenses? Just cause debt isn't due until 2028 doesn't mean there are no bills.

LargeSnorlax

Well, it just gets downvoted by the same people whining about crypto "not having a use case" because they literally know nothing about it. Look at the replies here, hell, most people only know crypto exists because Saylor told them nonsense about being a hedge or a store of value. How many times have we heard the same nonsense by people who show up here every few months from /r/valueinvesting talking about intrinsic value, or wsbers tying it to MSTR? Yeah, like, we get it, you lost some money, or you think it's funny the price goes down, but like, why spend time trashing something you don't know anything about? No one goes on /r/nvidia and calls Jensen a scammer to get internet points every day, that's just a sad existence.

JustLTFD

You clearly have not done your homework. Strategy will 100% have to sell BTC. Where do you think the $100 million a month comes from to pay their dividends? Right now it is coming from selling stock. But the mNAV has been on a constant decline and once it goes below 1, they can no longer sell stock. However, the debts and dividends still need to be paid. So please tell me where they get the money from? They have raised some cash anticipating this, but that cash will run out also. So please tell me what scenario there is where MSTR doesn't have to sell BTC. The only one is if magically they are able to keep raising money selling stock, but that's impossible.

PopLegion

Did I ever imply that Saylor is doing illegal things? I just said that's the only thing holding back MSTR from being a ponzi scheme, he hits the other 3 criteria, he just isn't committing any known fraud. If that were to change, it would be correct in calling it a legally defined ponzi scheme imo. I said it's not correct to call it that, so not sure why you are pearl clutching me over that. And no, MSTR fails regardless of BTC price action whenever Saylor misses a few funding rounds and can't accrue enough of other peoples money to continue growing his war cheat of BTC. Would BTC price have an impact on that? Sure. But in a world where BTC is perhaps appreciating at many multiples over the amount of extra BTC Saylor can accrue his previous investors, the entire point of buying into his company falls flat.

rgnet1

Recent downturn aside, if bitcoin trends precisely as it has since 2009 (i.e. upwards), is it still a scam? Again, the thesis is simply "bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom." Take debt in fiat and hold a fixed supply, non-centrally controlled asset like bitcoin. The rest works itself out. The only reason this fails is if the bitcoin experiment fails. And if it does, then MSTR goes down regardless. As to this statement: >The only thing holding MSTR from being legally defined as a ponzi scheme in my opinion, is at least currently we don't have proof of him cooking any books or posting fraudulent documentation Ouch. Guilty until proven innocent, I guess. Not really any way to argue with that, is there? Saylor's doing bad stuff because, well, because we don't know if he is!

PopLegion

The only thing holding MSTR from being legally defined as a ponzi scheme in my opinion, is at least currently we don't have proof of him cooking any books or posting fraudulent documentation. They do not generate much of any legit earnings, they fund old investors gains in BTC by gaining new investors, and they are constantly needing to accrue more capital to keep the train rolling. I agree that the market should work itself out, and I don't think Saylor should be stopped by some governing body or anything like that, as he is not breaking any laws. Doesn't mean it's not a scam though. I do think however many people here and generally have 0 clue how MSTR works and have zero idea that the entire thing is just one big constant cycle of finding more and larger investors to fund the growth for the older investors. And I think I am in my right to point that out on a crypto sub, and explain to people how this scam in my eyes is operating.

Formal_Lobster_2349

Because it’s a scam. MSTR is just a platform for the billionaires to exit their Bitcoin positions, just before the crash. The crowd doesn’t seem to understand this glaring fact, by the time they realize it will be too late.

rgnet1

Again: where is this a hidden agenda? Where are people being lied to? And also, isn’t the “entire return thesis” that “bitcoin value always go up”? All the obligations MSTR takes on is actually irrelevant if bitcoin itself goes up in value. Which is the belief of many, including Saylor. To clarify I have zero interest in holding MSTR. I think the real scam is people have been conditioned to believe we need any vehicle representing bitcoin. Everyone can custody bitcoin. That’s the f’ing point of it. ETFs are “great” for commodities that are expensive to transport and store - not so for bitcoin. Only banks want people to believe they should sit as middlemen for it. Only govs want it out of self-custody because it loses them control. But if idiots want to hold paper of an easy to own digital asset, then by all means let the free market allow Saylor to accumulate as much as he can.

PopLegion

The entire return thesis of Micro Strategy predicates itself to investors as the following: If you spend 100k on MSTR shares, those shares have a certain amount of BTC associated with them. As MSTR accrues more BTC, your shares will see an increase in the amount of BTC on MSTRs balance sheet associated with them. So while a 100k investment into MSTR may not get you 1 BTC of asset value currently, in the future, it may represent greater than 1 BTC. The only way for MSTR to accrue more BTC is through continued and ever increasing equity and convertible debt offerings. This means that new investors are being brought on, to find the gains of older investors, and this cycle needs to constantly go on, and constantly increase in size to have the desired result of your investors shares of MSTR have an increased amount of BTC per share. Sounds very much like a pyramid scheme to me.

Check_Me_Out-Boss

Dude has no problem committing tax fraud using MSTR. Why do you think they care about shareholders? https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/03/bitcoin-billionaire-michael-saylor-settles-dc-tax-fraud-case-for-40-million.html

dweeegs

The cash they have isn't to buy BTC at all. They do fresh ATM's every week to fund their BTC purchases. They already did a big raise last December to keep a couple year's worth of cash for STRC and other products they have There is nothing forcing them to sell within a remotely short time frame, even if BTC price gets halved. The next shot would be a year+ from now when their convertibles are due and I can guarantee they'll either refi or shit out more MSTR before he sells a single BTC. The dude is batshit crazy The risk from Saylor isn't to BTC it's to his "shareholders"

bam-RI

Its so simple it doesn't need math. MSTR has zero return on bitcoin assets yet it pays dividends. Where will the money coming from? Yep - the common share holders.

Maddcapp

If I were you, I'd sell now (or 75% of it) and monitor the price. It seems to be on a downward trend. If it continues to drop I'd buy back at a lower next level. If it starts to pick up then dca back in when the trend and macro conditions look better. That's what I'm doing with MSTR and I avoided the last month of drops. I believe in Michael Saylor and BTC but I don't want to hold the bag while it goes down. And remember, you have a very long time horizon. Longer than you realize. Any mistake you make now is a blip. But if you make smart decisions, it will give you a huge advantage later. I'd also diversify a little. Imagine what the price of gold, silver, Google, Apple will be when your 65. You're already smarter than most kids your age because your saving and thinking about these things.

Astr0b0ie

Meanwhile, in the last two days since the 15% dump in Bitcoin, MSTR has actually bounced a few percent.

Imagination_Drag

Please go google, “does MSTR borrow money to buy bitcoin”. You will see 100 articles on how he issues preferred stock and convertible bonds to finance (aka borrow) money to buy bitcoin. Here is one of them: https://m.investing.com/analysis/is-microstrategys-borrowtobuy-bitcoin-strategy-a-risk-too-big-to-take-on-200652072?ampMode=1 The question is, what are terms??? If he can avoid cash calls then he will be fine on convertible bonds. If he has triggers based on price he is screwed. That is the risk here. I need to find all the terms of all his paper to understand this.

Check_Me_Out-Boss

It's funny that you think Saylor and the MSTR board care about shareholders. And I say this as someone who worked there for nearly 5 years in their finance department.

tre6123

honestly the whole "bitcoin company" strategy seemed genius at first, but buying at 88k right before a dump is rough for anyone holding MSTR stock

shadi150

Okay enjoy then. My MSTR LEAPs have been printing since November so idc what you say. Keep buying the dip and get back with me at months close. Just remember the name…Fibonacci 😛

lonestar-newbie

Right now MSTR has \~3.5% of total supply. How will they get to 33%? Are you saying they will keep buying by selling commons till they reach 33%?

shadi150

They’re leveraged though through convertible debt and preferred equity to fund Bitcoin purchases. And they have major dividend commitments, yes they have the cash for it but that cash is also to buy BTC. If BTC sustains these low prices, and its projected to go lower, they’ll be forced to sell. Selling will cause the value of BTC to crash more, they’ll lose investor confidence. Everyone will sell MSTR. They won’t be able to make to make commitments. Going concern, then bankruptcy.

sirdopa

This was said before the government lost all of it's public trust. And buying dying companies focused solely on trading isn't a smart move to gain voters confidence. It's not like it's saving jobs or some product. If government cares at all at any sort of social confidence, then more likely they will simply force MSTR to sell all it's assets and pay back the stockholders. And this will probably happen, since they have a PR nightmare with the release of files by DOJ. The times, where scamming voters in such obvious ways are nearing the end. Too much publicity on anything they do.

harvested

The equity is MSTR's stock, that's what they are selling.

Imagination_Drag

This is such a dumb response. I never said he’s buying futures. He’s borrowing money via preferred stock issuance and convertible bonds. Don’t believe me, Google “MSTR borrows money to buy bitcoin”. And looks like the costs of borrowing are going up: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/01/strategy-raises-strc-dividend-as-the-preferred-stock-s-price-drifts-below-par

Imagination_Drag

Some of the responses i get are hilarious They have no idea that MSTR has issues convertible bonds and more concerning, preferred shares with high, unsustainable interest rates https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/01/strategy-raises-strc-dividend-as-the-preferred-stock-s-price-drifts-below-par

Imagination_Drag

Not sure is so easy for them to keep raising funds. They are now paying 11.25% for their preferreds and just raised rates This article explains some of it https://www.investors.com/news/mstr-stock-strategy-bitcoin-price-interest-costs-mnav-premium/#:~:text=Strategy%20(MSTR)%20should%20have%20some,October%20peak%20just%20above%20$126%2C000.

tomsmac

Give them time. MSTR has to collapse first.

harvested

For the love of God people. MSTR buy bitcoin with equity (common and preferred) sold at market, and to a lesser extent, convertible notes. Neither act as a lein on their bitcoin that can trigger a 'margin call' or 'liquidation' The only reason they'd want to sell bitcoin is if the the $2B cash on hand isn't enough to cover the distributions on the preferred equity. The risk is bitcoin stays dead for years. But that is not a collateral triggered liquidation event, simply chosing to sell to cover obligations.

Vegetable-Rabbit7503

The lower Bitcoin falls, the higher the demand, the more MSTR, banks, BlackRock, etc., can buy. It's like a safety net. could produce a sharp flash crash lasting a few weeks or months, but that would simply be extreme volatility, absorbed to continue rising.

VoDoka

Ok, so, serious question, is this some sort of death spiral setup? Like, if investors want the payout, it's because the MSTR stock is underperforming, but the company doesn't really have a product beyond a big pile of BTC, so to pay out those investors they have to sell BTC (or find new suckers) which further devalues the stock of every MSTR holder because that pile of BTC, which is pretty much the only value behind that company, shrinks at the same time? So now, the remaining BTC would have to increase in value even quicker than before, so that the next maturing bonds which have even higher values don't do the same?

EitherInvestment

That is almost inconceivable. Truly crazy things happen, but it would take more than another covid for MSTR to have to start selling

gentlegiant80

It’s cute when people imagine Saylor’s buying BTC with a Robin Hood margin account. MSTR’s debts are convertible bonds, the first of which doesn’t come due until next year. There are no margin calls.

daynomate

Check the power law graph that’s held true since the beginning. We have plenty of room to go still and MSTR can’t do much about it. 50-60k

Typical_Positive7454

Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin (at least that’s what they tell the public, but that’s a topic for another conversation). At market close last Friday, their 06FEB2026 contracts had * 49 million positive gamma exposure * (meaning hedge funds buy on dips, sell on rips). That’s some of the highest positive gamma you’ll see on most stocks. In order to maintain some semblance of “equilibrium”, the big boys will be buyers here for MSTR. By proxy, you see similar behavior in Bitcoin. Also, the low volume node mentioned - as well as the fair value gap that hasn’t been touched for quite some time - means buyers are ready to pull the trigger. The last time we saw this price, BTC/USD rallied all over u/Comfortable_Radio384’s mom’s tits. +68% to be exact.

Necessary_Force_1105

A lot of things might collapse this year. If MSTR sells I really thing sub 30k might be possible.

czm_labs

it’s below MSTR’s avg right now

stories_from_tejas

Yea Tom Lee said in some interview that the government could acquire a company like MSTR, ever since that it’s been artificial price drop. They can’t beat Bitcoin, but they can own it. It’s so obvious. The moment it’s eminent domaines by the government it’ll skyrocket up to 250k

thechonkiestchonk

Don’t know man. I’m just here for the ride. 150$ bimonthly is within my disposable income range so either it helps me retire early or it doesn’t and I retire at the regular time. That is the amount worth the gamble to me. Also got a bunch of MSTR that will either play out or won’t. I still got a good 30 heads in the workforce so we’ll see what happens in 15-20 of those

JustLTFD

You forgot the 90% draw down. And no this time isn’t different. It’s actually worse. MSTR has 700k bitcoin they need to sell. I’ll be back when that’s done.

Imagination_Drag

It’s not technically margin, but if MSTR borrowed money to buy btc it’s in effect the same thing. The question is how much was borrowed and what are the triggers to repay (which always exist in this sort of loan)

HSuke

I don't think that matters for the lenders. https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-announces-pricing-of-convertible-senior-notes-11-20-2024 If we look at the biggest convertible note lot, Microstrategy gets that election a full year after the lenders are allowed to convert it themselves for the redemption value, so it really doesn't matter. The lenders have priority. What's important is this: > Holders of notes may require MicroStrategy to repurchase for cash all or any portion of their notes on June 1, 2028 or upon the occurrence of certain events that constitute a fundamental change under the indenture governing the notes at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be repurchased, plus any accrued and unpaid special interest to, but excluding, the date of repurchase. Later on about 1.5 years after the earliest redemption date, if Microstrategy wants to force a conversion to shares or whatever, they can also do it as long as the MSTR price is > 130% of the redemption price.

No-Put7619

When we see MSTR margin call headlines carpet bombing media for a sustained period of time we will know we are very near the bottom.

Acrobatic_Rate_9377

Tomorrow we will see some REAL selling as the MSTR and various associated leverageETF levers get pulled, 20% down not Outta the question

Any-Pipe-3196

MSTR is only fucked if it stays low for a very long time. Just hitting this level isn't going to mean anything for them really

i_have_chosen_a_name

That just means a third party would be a guarantee for a pay out in case of insolvency. It does not mean MSTR can decide not to pay if they have the assets to pay with. If they have the assets, they are solvent. And they can pay, so they would be forced to sell their Bitcoins and pay. because their obligations are in us dollars, not in Bitcoin.

Friendly-Profit-8590

To me bitcoin would have to implode for MSTR to implode. I mean as long as MSTR has the cash to pay their debt obligations (which for now they do) and can continue to raise cash through their various offerings (which for now they can) they’re good. Doesn’t matter what price bitcoin is at. That said if bitcoin collapses cause it’s not seen as viable then MSTR is collapsing too. That said, if MSTR is forced to sell some of their bitcoin for some other reason then I imagine Bitcoin’s price would crater.

ljungbergsghost

What I’m interested in is what will the impact on bitcoin be if and when MSTR implodes or is required to start liquidating? It’s hard of bitcoin. It has to have an effect on the market as those hundreds of thousands of bitcoin are put in the sell pipeline.

Feeling-depress369

50% MSTR 25%BTC 25% Cash. Will be deploying more as we go down.

BackgroundTeacher210

MSTR is leveraged BTC

Imagination_Drag

Everyone responding to this thread is missing the big question and it’s not about dividends MSTR has enough cash to pay a couple year of dividends The real question is how much leverage has MSTR used? And what are the triggers on repayment? Basically at what level does MSTR have to sell to make the “margin call” And it’s not just MSTR. It’s all the “treasury” firms. If we start to see “margin calls” and especially any of the treasury firms start to sell it will cause a death spiral of positions being liquidated. So it’s really important to know If there is ton of leverage used by MSTR and other treasury firms. The other issue is ETFs which if investors dump tomorrow could also easily depress the market Strangely enough the massive concentration of these Treasury firms and the easy liquidity of ETFs make bitcoin perhaps riskier than previously when only true believers owned and leverage was difficult to get to buy bitcoin

Friendly-Profit-8590

Not anytime soon. No. In fact it looks like MSTR will keep buying btc. If Bitcoin has a future MSTR will be fine long term. If it doesn’t then MSTR’s toast. Just depends on one’s view of Bitcoin in a few years.

long-da-schlong

Yea that is very fair and is probably what you should do. Bitcoin will come back up in time, MSTR much be fucked

JustLTFD

The forced selling comes when MSTR can no longer raise money by selling MSTR to cover debt and dividend payments. This hasn't happened yet, but will happen in the near future (1-1.5 years). That's when you see a 90% draw down. It will be the largest liquidation event in the history of BTC. It's going to be epic.

NatBitty

25k shares at $24.50 and yeah I’m not feeling great not being up 100% anymore, but at least selling calls against it and buying MSTR/ETH puts has saved me.

devCheckingIn

MSTR will report earnings on Thursday. Will be interesting to see what kind of guidance they provide for the next quarter. Coinbase reports next week.

baIIern

MSTR will be so cheap, Bitcoin price must follow or they need to sell Bitcoin

SatoshiReport

Last cycle MSTR wasn't holding a significant portion of the entire bitcoin network.

dweeegs

Selling MSTR? Ya Selling BTC? No

Tradewell3845

I think investors should at least consider this as a real possibility. Just kicking myself I didn’t by MSTR/Riot puts at the top

KristianME

Question to those with much experience anf knowledge in the crypto world.. Does Ethereum have a problem now compared to other cryptocurrencies? I mean everyone is talking about that it might be an issue for BTC if we cross the MSTR BTC average at around 76k. If Ethereums case, prices are below their average by a huge margin, like BMNR and Sharplink that bought alot of Eth in the hype around ATH. They might be forced to sell etc? I put some capital in my exchange to buy some, was first thinking Eth, but then i thought about this problem.. Might consider Solana instead.. Would appreciate any input..

ReliantToker

50% BTC 40% MSTR 20% STRC. 10% Margin

bestjaegerpilot

MSTR is fine bro. They don't need to sell Bitcoin unless it drops to something like sub 20k. Blackrock makes money off fees---that means they're \*incentivized\* to keep the party going---that's how money works

Background-Day-4957

Waiting for more DAT companies (many DAT companies have higher average buy than MSTR) to get forced liquidation.

NewestNumber2

Funny, I asked a similar question last year as I was looking at getting into MSTR. I asked what would happen if BTC retreated to $65K. I was basically called a regard for suggesting such a ludicrous thing and never really got an answer to my question. The bottom line is that no one on this sub knows BTC’s highest-highs nor lowest lows on the horizon, charts be damned. To answer your question, BTC would have to be at $50K for quite some time in order for MSTR to liquidate anything as they’ve been building their rainy day cash reserves for this specific reason. Been looking into MSTR for some time but still own none. I hold BTC and really don’t care what it trades at as it costs me nothing to hold it.

N0-name1

lol MSTR made I through the 2022 BTC bear market with a worse capital structure. FAKE NEWS!

Background-Day-4957

If it goes below $75, MSTR will be in forced liquidation and drive the price even lower.

thisisrealusername

100% MSTR lol

double_r76

10% in IBIT plus smaller positions in MSTR and BTCI

TPratticus

Right. It would have to stay quite low for several years. MSTR is prepped to hodl and has numerous options to deal with dips

Amazing-Jury-6886

What, MSTR? they are toast. Blackrock?? They are custodians not investors in btc.

biba8163

> The man has staked his entire reputation on the ETH fund Tom Lee was hired for his reputation with the strategy that he'd draw gullible TradFi investors into BMNR. He knows very little about ETH: - Tom Lee calls ETH a fork of Bitcoin He doesn't believe in ETH itself. If Tom Lee genuinely considers ETH the **"Biggest Macro Trade of the Next Decade"** then: - Why was he not screaming this in 2024 or before July 2025 when he was marketed as the chairman of BMNR? - Why has he not allocated a percentage to ETH in his OWN ETF, Fundstrat's flagship ETF? - Why is Tom Lee allocating to BTC in his very own ETF portfolio through MSTR and not have ANY exposure to ETH? https://grannyshots.com/holdings/ Tom Lee was paid an undisclosed sum of money when he was initially brought into BMNR. In addition to his performance based criteria for ETH % held by BMNR, BMNR stock price and BMNR marketcap he is also getting a ton of guaranteed money > Guaranteed Cash: $35 Million > Regardless of company performance, Mr. Lee is entitled to: > Up-Front Payment: > - $15 million paid immediately upon approval. > Annual Retainer/Salary: > - $5 million per year for 4 years. https://x.com/TheShortBear/status/1999234338609635349

mgtowmoney

Considering MSTR already reached that zone, I think BTC will. Decent chance we go under that zone.

chernz94

90% BTC, 10% MSTR lol

baIIern

The OTC Bitcoin would be sold on exchanges if MSTR didn't buy it, right? In the end, it doesn't really matter. Also I'd think that people would start to trade MSTR buys

iLLuSion_xGen

About MSTR: What happens IF Saylor doesn't buy OTC but spot? Wouldn't the price skyrocket and make MSTR safe?

Stop_looking_at_it

You’re right that the conversion decision belongs to the bondholder, not MicroStrategy - that’s an important point most people miss. But you’ve got the payout mechanics wrong. If MSTR is below $672, bondholders don’t get “$672/share” - they get their principal back ($1,000 per note). The $672.40 conversion price just determines the conversion ratio (1.4872 shares per $1,000 note). They’re not entitled to $672/share in cash. Also, MicroStrategy actually does retain some control here. From their own press release: “The notes are convertible into cash, shares of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock, or a combination of cash and shares of MicroStrategy’s class A common stock, at MicroStrategy’s election.” Source: https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-3-billion-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-due-2029-at-0-coupon-and-55-conversion-premium_11-21-2024 So bondholders choose whether to convert, but MSTR chooses how to settle (cash, stock, or mix). The real risk isn’t the conversion mechanics - it’s whether they can refinance or have liquidity to repay ~$7B+ in principal if Bitcoin tanks and they can’t roll the debt. That’s the actual bear case.

awesomeplenty

Once $MSTR gets liquidated at $20k BTC

raar__

OKKKK first of MSTR at inception was 10 fucking dollars. So fuck right off. BTC going to zero, CUM coin hasnt even gone to zero. Who the fuck is TOM LEE. SRS fuck right off

HSuke

I wouldn't be surprised if MSTR shareholders attempt to frontrun this by dumping MSTR even more. Microstrategy has $8B in convertible debt maturing in the next several years. 5 out of 6 of them are below the average strike of $450. The price of MSTR is well below $450, so they will not convert to shares. Microstrategy only has $1.4B of liquid assets. Since they refuse to sell BTC, they will need to sell MSTR to pay back those debts, which will cause MSTR price to decline.

HSuke

They have $8B in debt maturing the next 4 years and $1.4B in assets other than MSTR and Bitcoin. If they don't sell BTC, they MUST eventually sell MSTR or raise money some other way to pay off their debts.

tatertot4

The same thing happened last cycle, and the same stories came out with the same doom and gloom. Then MSTR ripped >30x over two years.

HSuke

Microstrategy has a lot of debt to pay back that will be maturing in the next several years. They currently have $8.2B of debt and only $1.4B of liquid assets, so they will need to sell MSTR or Bitcoin (or issue new shares of MSTR to sell). * $1.0B in Sep 2027 with conversion price of $183 * $3.0B in Jun 2028 with conversion price of $672 * $0.8B in Sep 2028 with conversion price of $150 * $2.0B in Mar 2028 with conversion price of $433 * $0.6B in Sep 2028 with conversion price of $233 * $0.8B in Jun 2029 with conversion price of $204 If the price of MSTR is below the conversion price, the holders of those notes will choose to be paid in cash instead of converting to MSTR shares. Currently, the price of MSTR is below the conversion price for ALL of those notes except for one of them, forcing Microstrategy to sell once their $1.4B of liquid assets runs out. I wouldn't be surprised if MSTR shareholders attempt to frontrun this by dumping MSTR even more.

HSuke

Microstrategy has $8B in debt and only $1.5B in liquid assets. He's going to have to sell either Bitcoin or MSTR shares. The only way he can avoid that is if MSTR is worth more than $400-600 so that the convertible notes will convert instead of selling at strike price for cash.

mikeysz

Agree, unless MSTR have to sell or go under in which case 20k-30k easy

zzseayzz

Already 100% Bitcoin hodlin' in 401k - IBIT, MSTR, MARA, XXI

HSuke

> Strategy can extend maturities (roll over its debt), convert debt to shares when they come due. Note that the first convertible note put date isn't until the third quarter of 2027. I don't think the author fully understands how the convertible notes work. Microstrategy can NOT choose whether to extend maturities or convert that debt. That's not their decision; it's the customer's. **For example, for the $672.40/share notes expiring in 2029**, the customer is allowed to choose up to 1 year ahead (in 2028): 1. If the price of MSTR is below $672, the customer will ask for Microstrategy to pay them $672/share 2. If the price of MSTR is above $672, the customer will ask for Microstrategy to convert the bonds to MSTR shares. If MSTR is under $672, Microstrategy will lose money on this deal. It's not their decision.

JammedTlilet

Once it hits $74 MSTR is gonna unload and it'll crash to the 50s before large governments and banks buy in mass.

WeakEstablishment686

Yep good way to think about it, though essentially by 2140 all 21 million will be mined I believe since the new amount will be so small it’s rounded to 0. I know the price will eventually continue to rise, there’s more demand than ever before, it has largely followed the power law (though seems to have diverged with this recent drop), etc. My only concern is whether the net increase in demand will overtake the additional supply of coins mined. I know it seems obvious it should, but would love to hear some math behind this if anyone has something. Seems like we’ll have 330k BTC mined in the 4 year period from 2028-2032, less than half of MSTR’s current holdings. So as long as net demand > net sellers + net supply, price should rise correct? Obviously our CAGR will continue to decrease, but is there a scenario where it takes much much longer to actually hit $1M? Seems like 20-30% annually will get us there in 10-14 years, a beautiful 12x return on current prices.

NatBitty

I have 225 MSTR 4/17 $100 puts and I’m itching to see how much they are up on Monday.

noblestation

Buy BTC, short MSTR.

Purple_Errand

if he sells then his peddling about MSTR holding is over. trust is broken.

Wheaties4brkfst

True, but the first one is next year, and then most are in 2028. I doubt MSTR will blow up or anything, but it will almost definitely underperform just a regular ETF. They will probably just dilute the shareholders a lot, and their key “BTC yield” metric will collapse because the way they calculate that assumes that the convertibles will convert. They will need to create more shares than the calculation assumes.

dweeegs

I don’t care - this wasn’t about MSTR stock, this is about whether he’ll have to liquidate his BTC I couldn’t give any less of a fuck about how his shareholders feel

bam-RI

You'll be able to buy some of MSTR's at that price.

AutomaticShopping638

That’s where the bottom lies - when MSTR blows up that will be the bottom….

JustLTFD

Long odds? It's essentially guaranteed. They have dividend debt and dividend payments to pay and they can no longer sell MSTR stock! They have a cash reserve to cover that for a bit, but that will 100% run out also. IT IS 100% GUARANTEED THAT MSTR WILL HAVE TO SELL BITCOIN, AND IT'S GOING TO GET UGLY!