Reddit Posts
Correlation of GBTC & ETHE to US stock market
In case anyone is wondering what happened to the price of gold after the GLD ETF hit the market. This happened.
Crypto asset manager, Grayscale, overtakes world's largest gold fund
JPMorgan Says Bitcoin’s Record Run Is Being Driven by Inflation
It took the previous record holder, the gold ETF GLD, three days to cross through the ten digits and $BITO has done it in only two.
New bitcoin futures ETF could trigger rally to $168,000, analyst assert.
$BITO ETF has traded $280m worth of shares in first 20min
GBTC trading at a discount, why?
⚡️ $PROXY - Institutional grade L2 Wrapped BTC for bringing Bitcoin to DeFi with no centralized exchange, no price slippage. Launched 24 hours ago!⚡️
3 Reasons Why a U.S. Bitcoin ETF Will Be Approved Soon And Be The Next Major Catalyst
Are there any ETFs that are essentially a pile of crypto?
On Markets, Interest Rate, and the Musk Effect
My thoughts on Peter Schiff's "The beginning or end of the bitcoin bear market?"
Bitcoins role during a financial crisis in a post internet world.. It is the only safe haven that has functional utility.
Grayscale’s GBTC At The Verge Of Surpassing World’s Leading Gold ETF
Mentions
I think it’s because Strategy (MSTR) is likely to be delisted from index funds Index funds are supposed to contain different companies. But they claim that MSTR is essentially not a company at this point, but rather a fund. For example IBIT is an ETF for buying bitcoin. It’s a fund, not a company, and IBIT isn’t included in index funds. Likewise, GLD is the same but for gold - also not in index funds. They’re claiming that MSTR is essentially like a bitcoin fund and not a company, since bitcoin is >50% of the company value.
2025 - Smart people and institutions short it making a bank. I mean that was a easy take, BTC on 120K was like 15% gold market cap. And taking in account central banks are still massively buying GLD it is virtually impossible to have BTC over 280K within next 10Y. So a crash is what makes sense to be able of having a runup. Is not tough to understand. I was banned from BTC sub for telling this like 2 months ago and still appearing so casually on rddit main page somehow some folk post I cannot comment in
You should observe your behavior carefully. Then you should dabble in 0dte xsp options to grow a pair of risk tolerance. You need to see positions go up xx,xxx% and then implode to zero. Investing is an upside down kingdom; the harder you work, the less you will make. I recommend 0dte xsp options trading to quickly teach you a valuable lesson; you will not win by trying hard. Even if you try for weeks, months, or years, you’re going to fail if you try. If you spend every waking moment of your life fighting market makers and algorithms, hedge funds, technical analysis, micro and macro economic data, candle sticks, interest rates and yield curves, capital flows and dark pool liquidity, relative price movements on TLT GLD VIX, tinker with hundreds of indicators…..you could get to a point where you see patterns everywhere; you could have demonic foresight, BUT they’re just statistical probabilities in a game you’re fighting against God. Read that last sentence again. There is no safety. Everything that was created can be destroyed. These movements are boring compared to the degenerate shit I did the past two years. TLDR: from what I’ve read, statistical probabilities on historical data show that a -80% decline from all time highs is completely normal for Bitcoin. You need a plan with rules in it. You need an asset allocation where you buy some assets and you never think about it ever again.
You could buy an EFT instead.. IBIT seems to be the larger of the two choices.. supposed to track price of BTC like the GLD EFT.. 🤷♂️
Crypto seems to be most correlated to tech an AI bubble or nasdaq QQQ, more of the intraday swings are aligned with the flushes pops, vs as a currrency hedge with GLD or anti USD. So if you can predict the nasdaq youc an probably predict which way crypto breaks.
I will do exactly that. And I am a big fan of Harry Browne and actually use the permanent portfolio in my trading. The only difference is that I am only long when the trend is up in SPY, TLT, and GLD when their trends are up instead of all the time. And I use LEAPS instead of shares. I have been successful with speculating with etfs, but never considered bitcoin until recently, so this really helps me a lot. Thank you for your replies.
I bought 10/17 GLD calls mid-August just before it started the parabolic run from $305 to $400... sold for 10% profit We all make mistakes
I bought them when GLD dipped to $377 after it dumped the most amount in a day since 10 years or something. Lol
Gotta be really late to the party to lose money on GLD calls But again, I'm blood red on IBIT calls
I am SO GLAD I spend money on nice things that bring me joy, and don't relegate myself to the existence of a miser in order to meet financial goals. JFC. I am SO happy I bought myself a $1,700 Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra phone, and a $5,000 Alienware laptop earlier this year with the money I would've otherwise lost in the stock market on GLD calls :/ Jesus bros.
Idk why yall be acting like you have to be rich to invest or trade options. $5/week will do, compounding exists. SPY and GLD 0DTE options sometimes cost as low as $3 and moon to over $500 with enough volatility. Once you learn how the market moves then you use it to your advantage. Learn or get left behind
I would be if it weren't for the massive tax it would take from selling all these stocks I've been holding forever. HOWEVER, everything that I was losing on or wouldn't take a big hit. I sold off for Bitcoin. I used to tons of treasuries.. ALL GONE..just BTC Baby.. I'm either selling the rest off little by little, or rolling into GLD or IBIT
The current price of BTC relative to S&P and GLD, for one thing.
Yeah because part of the handshake was that Greyscale would keep their fees high while dumping on the market so that OldFi could load the boat on the cheap. Also followed the same pattern as when GLD ETF was introduced. Which is a tool for suppressing the price, too.
Just some perspective and random thoughts from myself, BTC was at 69k this time last year - this month and probably Nov will be telling - the next rate cut should already be priced in which is concerning that BTC hasnt responded. I expect a bit of a tick up in GLD over the next few weeks. Have entered into a bit of a scalp (with SLV too). I do expect a bit of rotation into BTC, mainly from institutions; retail will not ape in unless BTC starts doing 180-200K. Bit concerning BTC rejected hard off 114, but we need higher lows to start forming. Lower lows will be concerning. I bought in low so not too bothered either way but I do want to position myself for the bear. Overall we need to break 114k soon!
Not trying to brag obviously I can’t predict the market but the theory still stands as it has been for 100 years when GLD is at all time highs people move the money into other risk assets. Have you ever heard someone saying “gold is so expensive lets buy it”
Crypto be like "Drainage! Drainage, GLD, you boy. Drained dry. I'm so sorry. Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? Watch it. Now, my straw reaches acroooooooss the room and starts to drink your milkshake. I... drink... your... milkshake!"
80%? Are you actually stoned? You think that BTC is going to accumulate close to 25B worth of market cap from GLD? IN THE NEXT TWO MONTHS? hahahaha you people man. Just shut up and buy.
same with gold and silver via GLD and SLV... different strategies for different ppl.
I've seen the same mentality split in the gold community where some swear by physical gold only and others are fine holding ETFs like GLD.
Coinbase sucks. Forgot my password process took 3+ months. Had to send driver's license and multiple email inquiries. Still have my coins there but anything new, ETFs are waaaay better. On top of that, you can sell covered calls and generate even more income. I'm not staking coins on shady sites to earn. I own GLD too, don't have a single gold piece of jewelry either. Enjoying my paper gains.
I have about 5% of my retirement accounts invested in $GLD. It was at about 5% back in the start of this year, and I’ve been selling tiny pieces as it’s gone up so much in the last few months that it’s still about 5% allocation. I might drop it down to 4% really soon.
Bitcoin is harder to mine because of network and increasing electricity costs due to inflation. Everything scales up the same for bitcoin as it is to mine gold. How does prices affect the scarcity? Gold is just gold, dollars is more dollars over time. BTC = BTC is the same as GLD = GLD at some point in the future.
Bitcoin is harder to mine because of network and increasing electricity costs due to inflation. Everything scales up the same for bitcoin as it is to mine gold. How does prices affect the scarcity? Gold is just gold, dollars is more dollars over time. BTC = BTC is the same as GLD = GLD at some point in the future.
The golds of these ETFs are house with 3rd party vault and you can redeem the shares for physical gold. They are audited at least quarterly. Of course you could lose your investment if you invest with a shady firm. Every investment come with risk, it just matter how you manage it. Keeping physical gold have it own risks too. Someone could break into your safe stole your gold, worst yet, you could put you life in danger because someone know you owns physical gold and where you keep your physical gold. Keeping BTC in cold storage also has it owns risk, such as misplaced the physical hardware or worst forgot seed phrases. Ask the British guy who has his BTC in a hard drive that buried in the landfill or the German-born bay area programmer who could not remember his pass phrases how thing work out for them. Didn't ledger also got hacked before? The two oldest gold trust ETFs, GLD/GLDM are issued by SPDR (State Street Global Advisors) and IAU/IAUM are issued by IShares (Blackrock) respectively. If you can't trust Blackrock or State Street, you might as well not invest in the stock market at all.
Tradition Gold Trust ETFs: GLD, IAU, GLDM, IAUM, AGOL There are also ETFs holding shares of gold miners such as RING, GOAU GLD and IAU have the most asset I believe and the oldest. These are just a short list of what you can invest in the US stock market. You should research ETF yourself to see which suit your investment goal.
Just made some quick cash from GLD and IBIT
I think he has been trading BTC/GLD pair all this time.
Drop some money in GLD today and see what happens. Manipulated as fuck
Is this possibly the start of a larger historically significant collapse in Bitcoin? Moving in a negative correlation to GLD which is being bought in a historical frenzy.
No, GLD, which is the Gold trust did the legit opposite of the market on friday, when everything crashed gold was up 1.5%
I would go buy some GLD or spy and get that out of shitcoins
That would be weird for me to convert btc into fiat, even if it’s temporary and I don’t need to immediately spend it on something. Kinda defeats the purpose, because you never know how the market will move and I’d hate to be sitting in cash and be priced higher away from btc. But if you really felt you knew the market would sell off temporarily and wanted to try and capitalize on it I guess I’d convert cash to temporary hold GLD, just so I don’t sit on fiat.
2017. You have to go back to 2017. Thats the point. BTC dont look nearly as good recent years. Maybe sell 50% GLD Tuesday and rest by Wednesday midday. Buy the dip Thursday if VMBS and DXY show dollar weaken. If dollar strengthens, be hella careful of GLD multi year drop. Compare SLM 2006-08 and now.
BTC fair price $50-300k. It is not a hedge against stock market, it's a speculative tech stock. Even Gold is not a safe investment. If markets crash, BTC will crash more, GLD less.
It will be worth it in the long run. IMO, GLD is a bit too high and in a bubble for now. Just buy and hold.
I was wondering why it was taking forever to put in my order for GLD calls this morning 🥴
Bitcoin, like gold, is about wealth preservation. It's a hedge against the dollar. If you want to retire you need something that generates wealth (dividend stocks or real estate) My Bitcoin and gold don't do shit (well I make ~$300/wk selling covered calls on GLD) But my real estate sends me a monthly payment equal to a median wage worker. I can use that to buy shit while not drawing down my holding
[https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/) Gold has 0.43 beta last 5Y, according to Yahoo finance. Still tends to drop during major liquidity crunches that hit everything (2020), but definitely periods where it's running counter to SPY. Tends to have low correlation overall either way historically.
I suspect the slow upwards ramp up in Gold prices is due to insiders knowing what is in store for the USD. The Bitcoin whales plan on unloading those large illiquid positions on to the US Treasury at a fixed price. The Whales will immediately turn that USD into either GLD ETF or Physical.
On the off chance that BTC takes longer than expected or becomes more volatile than expected, I am, for myself, considering smoothing out the ride with 10% - 40% gold: physical, or ETF like $GLD, or digital like PAXG, or all the above. That, was not financial advice.
StockSwing pro gave buy signal to GLD at $242. So I bought
Also, no real audits of most traded gold etfs like GLD. people talk paper bitcoins and forget the have been playing paper-gold game forever. this is why they hate bitcoin/crypto, you can actually audit it so they cant bullshit you about reserves.
This is like saying don’t buy GLD, buy physical gold bars.
Ondo, Algorand are my bets. I like gold and silver tokenized on Algorand by Meld. I am considering liquidating my TradFi GLD and PSLV positions and moving them to DeFi. XDC is an old school RWA play that might still be valid but it is not very accessible from a platform support standpoint.
I've spent a long time educating myself on money, markets, and personal finances. I don't trust most financial advisors, many are actively harmful. The best give you simple advise you could implement yourself. Regarding diversification, I generally think diversification is a good idea. It helps you emotionally weather the downs, it provides access to upsides in a variety of sectors, and there is good evidence to support that getting high on the risk/yield curve and selling one asset class that is currently high to buy another asset class that is currently low as part of a portfolio rebalance is a winning strategy. All that said, I'm not sure I've ever tried to talk anyone out of being long BTC. You may not want to YOLO 100% in, but that is more about the general principal of never doing that with any single asset ever than it is about the fundamentals of BTC. A lot of financial literature the FA is consuming is anti crypto. Amongst that crowd it is pitched as "too new," What isn't said is that the FA crowds REQUIRE your assets in a stock/bond portfolios to collect commissions. With IBIT this may slowly start to change... The best FA's are fiduciary flat fee advisors, this group is generally less anti-crypto overall. BTC is up 26% YTD, GLD is up 25% YTD, S&P is up 8% YTD, Real estate is up 2% YTD. Three years ago the percentages were the same but the order was reversed. No one can predict the future exactly, diversification makes it matter less, but it can also eat into your potential for total gains. Less downsides, less upsides.
The diminishing returns may be a lot later due to institutional investments. They tend to attract long term investments rather than day trading spikes. For example, when Gold got ETF it sparked a 7 year bull run. Here we are barely a year into BTC and ETH ETF: GLD Launch: Nov 18, 2004 Gold Price at Launch: ~$430/oz Peak After Run: Sept 2011, ~$1,920/oz Duration: ~7 years Overall Gain: ~+346%
Every time I consider it it's just waaaay too much of a hassle. Much like BTC if you buy into most of the theses on how it's going to go parabolic you kinda have to take delivery of actual gold. People regularly bitch about the premium exchanges charge, especially if you don't know what they're doing and don't use something like active trader. But the 1-2% spread and fee is peanuts compared to the fees you fork over to a gold dealer. You probably have to be buying something like mid 6 figures to get a price within 10% of spot. (I was going to say 5%, but jesus if I didn't do a quick search and I'm staring at 1000kg bars selling @ 14% above spot) At the end of the day I'm also more skeptical of the average gold bug's arguments than I am of Bitcoins story of adoption and growing network effects. The fiat/USD collapse thing isn't a necessity for bitcoin to work out in my opinion, while it's kinda fundamental to gold working. On the flip side I'm agnostic to buying some GLD or other derivative for a short term trade, 'cause you think gold will do well because the push and pull of macro stuff like interest rates and the long bond being under constant pressure this year is a great opportunity for gold to out perform. But I'm just not a trader of stuff like that. If I want to do that much work to get a 40% return, I'd rather do it learning about tech companies.
I moved everything I had in GLD into FBTC in my IRA, no ragrets
Hey congrats on your portfolio! By gold and silver I meant the ETFs (GLD and SLV), I guess that covers “the fear of loosing it” part. Anyway huge thanks for the detailed explanation! It means a lot! Mind if I DM you?
Wrong, it literally doesn’t matter just like with index fund ETFs. Also, People said the same thing about GLD. It’s a dumb argument because the ETFs are generating the price appreciation this cycle.
Got house in US with a USDA mortgage loan (basically a federal program that allows 0% down in designated rural areas) in 2017 and my early 20s to support my dad and siblings after my mom cheated and left abruptly. Sold it in late 2021 for about twice what the mortgage was for after fixing it up a bit and experiencing a covid market surge. Reason for the sell was specifically because I knew BTC is going up massively in the coming years. Decided to sleep in my car (honda Civic) while throwing the proceeds and work income into BTC and related stocks. It wasn’t too hard because I was used to it since I slept on the couch at my house and gave the bedrooms to my dad and siblings. Sold half the MSTR and about 20% of my BTC this year and Bought a new house outright with cash and threw all the extra cash into ULTY for weekly passive income which is at almost 4000 weekly. Current portfolio: BTC IBIT - Blackrock BTC ETF MSTR - MicroStrategy CRSP - Crispr Therapeutics MTPLF - MetaPlanet GLD - Gold ETF GME - GameStop ULTY - Yieldmax Weekly Income MSTY - Yieldmax Monthly Income I agree Yieldmax is too good to pass up right now
Got house in US with a USDA mortgage loan (basically a federal program that allows 0% down in designated rural areas) in 2017 and my early 20s to support my dad and siblings after my mom cheated and left abruptly. Sold it in late 2021 for about twice what the mortgage was for after fixing it up a bit and experiencing a covid market surge. Reason for the sell was specifically because I knew BTC is going up massively in the coming years. Decided to sleep in my car (Toyota Civic) while throwing the proceeds and work income into BTC and related stocks. It wasn’t too hard because I was used to it since I slept on the couch at my house and gave the bedrooms to my dad and siblings. Sold half the MSTR and about 20% of my BTC this year and Bought a new house outright with cash and threw all the extra cash into ULTY for weekly passive income which is at almost 4000 weekly. Current portfolio: BTC IBIT - Blackrock BTC ETF MSTR - MicroStrategy CRSP - Crispr Therapeutics MTPLF - MetaPlanet GLD - Gold ETF GME - GameStop ULTY - Yieldmax Weekly Income MSTY - Yieldmax Monthly Income You should check out the crazy yields on Yieldmax. It’s not a dividend, it’s a covered call fund so it’s taxed as income. I believe MSTR is going to be one of the next multi trillion marketcap stocks so imo it’s going to continue seeing absurd yields for the next coming decades.
i want several acres of land and guns and gold bars and a selection of 90s and 2000s automobiles. preferably in a mountainous region within half an hour from a walmart and mcdonalds. what i buy and sell to get there doesnt matter much. i dont really see the point of OWNING shares of Apple over investing in AAPL through a traditional brokerage platform. *(yes i realize that blackrock and fidelity and vanguard get all the voting power to control the corporations and thus control the planet. i never believed BTC was going to change that. i honestly believe BTC was made by the CIA to buy the USA another century of hegemony and give the secret banking families that control the planet more time to take over the world's supply of GOLD because there will be less upward pressure on the price of gold due to all the demand that will shift to BTC. banks have been and will continue to take over the world and governments will continue to do whatever it is banks want as has been the case for the past 500 years. i dont think this ends until jesus comes out of the sky to defeat his enemies. am i crazy. sure. i also bought BTC at $7k and i'd like to learn more about this cold storage thing. but its a bit confusing.)* the same thing goes for gold and bitcoin... though i could see a future where i might want to keep a portion or all of my gold holdings in physical coins buried in the woods... i cannot see a situation where i need to do the same with bitcoin in other words. i see a .0001% chance of a zombie/nuclear/weimar/electromagnetic disaster bringing us to a world where guns and bullets and gold coins reign supreme. it would be very convenient to be holding a box full of gold coins and not GLD shares that are entirely gone. poof. i see a 0% chance of my bitcoin or stocks being useful in that scenario. if the US stock market goes to ZERO... its because there are aliens blasting us with lasers and bioweapons and the only safe places to live are in caves... so BTC in a cold wallet is as useless as BTC on the coinbase platform or BTC in a fidelity ETF.
yeah, that’s what I think happens. we’ll see two markets form: one for paper BTC (ETFs, derivatives) and one for real, self-custodied BTC. paper BTC might lag during big runs, just like gold. those markets can be throttled, settled in cash, or manipulated through supply expansion. but real BTC is not printing more, and it’s fully auditable. if people start demanding actual delivery and can’t get it, the gap shows up fast. it feels inevitable. just look at gold, most people know they’ll never redeem their GLD shares for real bars. but Bitcoin’s culture is different. self-custody is part of the ethos. so if demand spikes and custodians can’t meet it, trust in paper BTC cracks. the crowd shifts toward real BTC, and that’s when the premium kicks in.
Honestly why not make a modern day asset allocation? 25% VTI/BND/GLD/BTC Or VOO/bitcoin 90/10 or some combo where Bitcoin is your reserve asset?
How much does it cost to make 1 BTC? Either in seashells GLD or USD.
Less volatile in both directions. Hard to believe but Bitcoin has barely outperformed gold since March of 2021. This is what happens when ETFs and governments start buying it: volatility drops. This also happened to gold after GLD came into existence and banks started buying it and futures contracts took over. So many ways to change the nature of it. Those thinking BTC will 10x in the next couple years are dreaming. Those kinds of runs are over.
Considered selling paper SLV and GLD and buying tokenized versions like Meld GOLD and SILVER as well. At least buy PSLV if you can.
Actually, it's worse. Under IRS section 408(m), physical gold is considered a "collectable" and thus gains are subject to a 28% (long term) - 37% (short term) tax rate. Shares of many paper gold ETFs (e.g. GLD) are also subjected to the same tax treatment. It depends on how the ETF is structured but if you're buying an interest in physical gold it's the same as buying the physical gold for the IRS. Bitcoin is taxed as property thus your long term gains are one of: 0%, 15% or 20% depending on your gross income. Short term gains are taxed as ordinary income with the top tax bracket being 37% for earners filing jointly with an income over $751k.
Transfer to Robinhood IRA and buy IBIT or GLD or both.
Bitcoin moves inversely to oil prices because of the energy requirements to mine BTC. BTC also moves up in response to perceived risk to fiat, much the way gold does. In the past 5 days: BTC -5% GLD +3.6% WTI: +13% That BTC didnt drop by ~13% demonstrates my point. It is a store of value, it's just more heavily pushed down by oil prices than pushed up by risk to fiat.
*"IBIT has surpassed the $70 billion mark five times faster than the gold-based GLD product"*
tldr; BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has surpassed $70 billion in assets faster than any other ETF in history, achieving this milestone in just 341 days, compared to 1,691 days for the gold-based GLD ETF. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlights the fund's rapid growth and its legitimacy among major investors. BlackRock currently holds $76.19 billion in digital assets, and CEO Larry Fink warns that rising US debt and the growth of digital assets like Bitcoin could challenge the dollar's supremacy as the global reserve currency. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
You certainly can argue that its a better store of value than precious metals simply by comparing price action of BTC vs GLD since BTC first began.
Check out its 1 year 5 year compounded performance relative to SPY QQQ GLD and your favorite ETF in your portfolio.
ETFS, national reserves, BTC treasury companies on the stock exchange, tapping the market caps of GLD, bonds, housing, being used for large petro purchases by Russia and China in back door deals. Things are different the cycle has been broken “in a sense” there will always be dips, but not like we’ve seen previously. The rate will still cut in half every 4 years causing a more bullish market, but as for the downside the scarcity, and adoption are eliminating the possibility of such large drops. So yes still volatile, but in my own opinion, and I am an idiot, there will be no longer. Crypto winters .The intense supply shock that hasn’t even hit yet, since most people aren’t paying attention has changed everything. Stack SATS, and G-D bless!
Cold storage for long term savings Brokerage is 95% ibit, 2.5% meta planet, 2.5% MSTR Roth is 45% fbtc, 40% MSTR, 5% MAGS, 5% GLD, 5% metaplanet Non Roth retirement account is 50% iBit, 45% MSTR, 5% metaplanet Roth 401k at work is tied up until I leave You could use Swan's IRA but the fees are about the same vs the ETFs for retirement accounts but then you have to deal with swan. I'm debating taking the penalty on the non Roth and pull it all out for cold storage.
I started buying GLD this year, but only buy real BTC. Tried to explain to my wife that I'm investing in gold now and her response was, "Well, where is it all?" ... I think she was expecting a stash of bullion hidden in the house...
Point one: Gold is as good an inflation hedge as anything else. The twenty year returns on GLD are near the SP500 which is the benchmark for professional investors. Bitcoin has significantly out performed during it's 16 years and will likely continue to follow that trend with diminishing out performance (but still out performance compared to the high returns of SP500, Nasdaq, etc). Intrinsic value may or may not be what you are interested in on the second front of this question. I think you are thinking in 'fair value' terms? Gold's fair value (currently $3,288) can be loosely calculated as Fair Value of Gold = β₀ + β₁(Real Rate) + β₂(Trade-Weighted USD) + β₃(US CPI) + ε Bitcoin could be calculated using Fair Value of Bitcoin = β₀ + β₁(Real Rate) + β₂(Trade-Weighted USD) + β₃(US CPI) + β₄(Network Activity) + β₅(Supply Dynamics) + β₆(Adoption) + β₇(Regulatory Environment) + ε but those additional variables are up for debate so an actual number isn't going to be widely adopted or useful for years or even decades Intrinsic value is complicated and what a lot of people argue about in regard to bitcoin/Bitcoin (gold also faces critique from a lot of finance/investment folks that just prefer productive assets that are relatively easy to explain in financial terms). Point two: Lightning does have similarities in that most users will have a custodian manage the channels for them. One significant difference is that lightning doesn't block anyone from participation. If you ever live in another country you might see how multiple incompatible platforms are hard to deal with. Deciding on Venmo or Paypal is maybe trivial for Americans, but working internationally it is a big pain in the ass that banks often don't work together. Another difference is that the user has the option of running your own checking account digitally. With fiat you can only use cash to fully control your spending. Bitcoin's base layer gives you the ability to handle larger transactions and is pretty easy for most people to self-custody. Lightning is harder to self-host, but the self-self-sovereign option exists. Personally I don't distrust the financial system in terms of it not working over the rest of my life. Still bitcoin is useful to me in sending money internationally, storing value, and having some assets that no one can touch without my permission. Point three is extremely nuanced and I don't want to dive into that completely since this reply is already very long. My perspective is that the current system is broken in that value is being robbed of anyone that isn't a quasi-savvy investor. I grew up with a lot of working class people that don't trust big corporations anymore than the govt. Bitcoin gives people a dead-simple option to hold wealth without worrying about NVDA's earnings or the full faith and credit of the federal govt. I don't think bitcoin loses significant value if the current system lasts forever. But you might want to think in terms of decades and centuries. Fractional reserve banking and fiat currency at the current scale are fairly new experiments. Until around WW1 it was not normal to create a bunch of govt bonds and then buy them with a national bank or federal reserve. Point four: here you are misunderstanding the math. You can divide a penny infinitely too. Slicing bitcoin into smaller pieces doesn't change anything other than decimal places. There are 21 million bitcoin max. 2.1 quadrillion sats max. Keep renaming and increasing the number of units however you want. Nothing changes with the set of units. Dollars are intended to increase in supply regularly and in pretty large quantities. Fundamentally different models for issuance. The concern would be if we needed bigger units of division for bitcoin as the dollar out performs it. The usefulness (intrinsic value?) of the Bitcoin protocol ultimately determines the demand. As long as there are zero false transactions and the network continues to function there will be increased demand (maybe not a lot, maybe a ton). People have gotten used to credit card rewards and banks that baby-sit their money. But all that is fairly new. My grandparents buried money in the yard because the banks all failed when they were young. It is possible that people will (to some degree at least) decide that the banks and government are not 100% trust worthy for this essential aspect of life. I think banks and treasuries have shown themselves to be pretty bad actors in the first part of this century. Even if you think everyone in finance and financial policy is completely benevolent there is a pretty big incentive for bankers to expand lending and risk to the edges of what is legal and ethical. Politicians are perhaps even more short sighted. They typically just want to stay in office and/or make connections with the private sector for future personal enrichment.
Buying IBIT, using margin I am borrowing more IBIT and selling at the money calls on the borrowed shares it and collecting premium while holding the shares I’m not selling calls on. Buying GLD with the proceeds.
Most people don't actually buy gold but a gold ETF called GLD, which is essentially ownership of gold without having to store it and secure it yourself. However this year, the IBIT ETF which represents ownership of Bitcoin without having to store and secure it, has seen more money flow into it than the GLD etf has. AKA Wall Street is starting to invest more in BTC than in gold if you're measuring strictly by purchases of these two ETFs for January 2025 and forward.
tldr; BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has surpassed the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) in year-to-date (YTD) inflows, marking a shift in institutional preferences from gold to Bitcoin. Despite Bitcoin's modest 4.03% return compared to gold's 23.07% YTD gain, IBIT attracted $6.96 billion in inflows versus GLD's $6.51 billion. Analysts attribute this to growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset. Regulatory changes, such as the rollback of SEC's SAB 121, have also bolstered Bitcoin's appeal among financial institutions. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
1 month: VTI: -1.25% GLD: 7.31% IBIT: 12.20%
Dude, forget Bitcoin. You could invest in any security starting now and you will thank yourself a million years from now. Diversify. VOOG, GLD, and BTC would be my top 3 picks for long term holds but I also wouldn’t DCA. Try to buy in at the right time. There’s no such thing as “timing the market” but there is such a thing as being educated on the subject and making educated predictions using TA and fundamentals. Most crypto goons will tell you otherwise. Take advice from people involved in the market as a whole not just Bitcoin. Best of luck!
Why the fuck would most millionaires give a flying fuck about an extremely volatile, extremely manipulated speculative asset that so far this cycle hasn't even doubled in value from its last ath 4 years ago, when there are plenty of safer options to do that? The whole premise is supposedly that BTC is some kind of safe haven of value against the dollar. That was definitely true, and dramatically so, in its formative first few runs up to 2020/2021; the beyond belief returns if you got in prior to 2020, just okay if you got in before 2024, but not any better than stocks or index funds by this point. I guess its holding up against the market downturn right now, but who knows how long that will last. The theory was that when this exact scenario unfolding right now happens, everyone would flock to digital gold (BTC) which it would seem is happening to some extent, but more so they are flocking to GLD which is hilariously ironic. BTC has never been through a recession or depression, though it was borne out of one. I guess we'll see what happens if we tip off the edge into -enter your preferred parlance-. All this to say, I hope it goes up lol.
Index, sector, stock. Become a better trader. Look at WTRG, AWR, O, SPRY, TGTX, BRK/B, GLD, LLY. Bull markets everywhere, try to find them, stop trading losing tech names.
It should noted that during every market crash(2022, 2020, 2018, 2008, 2001) in the last 20 years, the USD actually gained value relative to other currencies. This is the first time it is losing value as our allies are beginning to see the US as unreliable and are fleeing from the USD. This is actually what Trump wants as he's said many times before that he thinks the USD is overvalued. If he weakens the USD, he believes US exports will be more competitive in the market. He's not wrong, he will just achieve this goal by destroying our economy. Buy GLD and BTC. RIP USD holders.
It’s good to diversify. No matter how much conviction you have ultimately nobody can predict the future. I hold VT and FBTC at around 70/30. May add some GLD as well.
i now keep 50% of my portfolio... in GLD. i rebalance every 52 weeks. so this will never happen again.
QQQ DJI GLD and a little bitcoin. Uninspired choices. Especially for a guy with insider information. He's a loser in so many different ways.
Gold & bitcoin for me. With GLD, you don’t need to posses gold to own gold.
I will look this from a different perspective. Total value of US stock market is ~50 T. Even if they move .1% of that to BTC that is 50B. GBTC get converted to spot ETF that is 20B. GLD ETF is 50B. Even though it is pretty much a dead investment.
Every holding that has awesome returns has high negative and positive volatility. Pick defensive holdings to dampen the overall volatility of the portfolio (SHY, UUP, FXF, GLD for negative correlation). Or just be ok with the rise and fall of the high volatility holding (BTC). I love BTC because its a great concept, high return, non leveraged instrument (no volatility decay). Also secondary use deflationary currency gives it long term value.
In case anyone is wondering what the GLD ETF did to the price of gold… it did this: https://i.imgur.com/uYkW59V.png
Next time Bitcoin collapses 70% in a year the perspective will be different. Both have their place. If gold ever goes back to $1600 I would buy GLD ETF. PAXG is a nice gold-backed stable coin to park profits.
I know this is going to seem like blasphamy in this subreddit, but you can always go like 60% BTC and then mix in “safe haven” uncorrelated, low volatility equities in: 20% SHY, 10% GLD, 5% FXF, 5% UUP. These are all good because BTC is high volatility. High volatility is a double-edged sword. Higher volatility = higher returns generally speaking. Like if BTC goes up 1000% sometimes next year goes -74%. Just food for thought.
It's a great idea. I have maybe 2% physical silver, 5/6% physical GLD, and 1/2% titanium, copper, carbon fiber.
I forgot, GLD also is good. I have like 2% in USO as an additional commodity, but its volatile.
One possible parallel is how the GLD etf in the United States made it easier for big investors to invest in gold. From when GLD was introduced in 2004, it went up 4x over the next 8 years with the biggest pullback being just 34% (i.e., not too volatile).
No. Im saying that people buying GLD think they are investing in physical, but aren’t. Im also saying that if you took the $46B out of GLD and those people still wanted to own gold, the spot price would be much higher.
You're assuming that people who invested in GLD would also invest in physical gold. Is that a reasonable assumption?
GLD opened in 2004 at around $45. It’s at $178 now.
You think GLD has 46B in gold deposits?
It will destroy bitcoins the way GLD has fucked gold. You wait and see
Let's look at this interesting point: The first **gold ETF**, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), was listed on the NYSE on November 15, **2004** The gold price appreciation was not too shabby afterwards. Sure, the gold price was also influenced by the global financial crisis in 2007/2008, but still 😉 Gold 30y price chart: https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html My final thoughts: Spot Bitcoin ETFs are free marketing, the BTC network effect will grow and this will lead to more demand => more demand with a fixed supply = BTC price will increase