Crypto Price Index
Many seem to think we are heading into a long term recession for stocks and crypto, because of macros. But if you look below the surface of macro-economics , emerging data is showing signs that it could be cut short, and potentially only be a correction.
In short, crypto are not going away. Considering its broader future use cases and value unlocking, coordinated by global human and financial capital, it's not hard to imagine this asset reaching over $1.5 trillion, it's hard not to get excited about it, but we need to be involved long-term
So the only hope we have for complete markets recovery is that the FED won't be able to raise the bond's interest rates in any significant way without causing further damage to the economy with the final result being = US national debt balloon crashing.
Of course, of course. We are already at the bottom. Just Hodl and keep buying as much as you can. A speculative financial product which its only value is waiting for sombody else to buy this magic bean. CPI around 9% and interest rate only 1.75%. What can go wrong?
It could be useful, but it is also easily manipulated and used to manipulate. CPI has been used to intentionally underestimate true inflation to try to convince people that they are not being fucked as hard as they actually are. To justify smaller wage increases, more money printing and lower interest rates. We have been living through a massive redistribution of wealth from those that already had little to those that already had a lot.
its the adjusted number so people don't get scared of the real number, but nonetheless a useful metric, traditionally 3 straight months of decline is said to mark inflation ending, but the current reasons why CPI are inflated have nothing to do with actual inflation. at some point we will see these numbers go down as sharply as they rose.
Believe me the CPI for June will be utterly disappointed and it will force fed to go full force to 1% rate rise. Those housing market mafia investors greedy bastards got so much free loan can absorb short-term decline in housing market and keeping inflated housing price causing this inflation and recession even more weird or painful. That is causing high inflation everywhere.
Depends on timeframe, short-term maybe 15k-20k. Could be 10k-20k bounces till stability in inflation, fed reserve and stock market centiment and confidence is present for a couple of consecutive quarters. If you want to make risky trades throughout the bounces and make money in the meantime, you can do so. Depends on your emotional/risk tolerance. If you believe in the long term success of blockchain tech and since instituional investors are in the space, you can purchase now and hold for a few years and sell when there is 5x to 10x gains. If you wanna have some more fun and a little more greedy, you can wait and hope we can get in the 10k range. Personally, I'd focus on the monthly CPI reports on inflation and fed responses as well as the war in ukraine. Remember that crypto investing is a worldwide phenomenon and so is inflation and energy crisis. The last thing you want is to buy at 20k and let it fall to 10k and run out of cash to throw in. You can also DCA down the dips.
Don't trust the numbers either.. The CPI has been a pack of useless lies forever. 8.5%? Really? Find me ONE thing that is only up 8.5%. In fact if you look at the components of CPI they are ALL up over 8.5%. How they get that number is a mystery, but it probably involves fingers and assholes.
BS. We were assured that inflation was transitory. That it is controlled. Now we are told it has peaked (YET PPI still exceeds CPI --- not indicative of dropping CPI). We'll see. One thing that is now clear is that none of these experts know shit.
>Then, so much fluctuation doesn't help with mass adoption. Fluctuation ***IS*** adoption taking place. You cannot have adoption without volatility. Bitcoin has to be adopted before it can become a medium of exchange. That is why store of value is inherently the first value proposition of Bitcoin. When people say it's an inflation hedge they don't mean it has inverse correlation to CPI in the US. Bitcoin starts going up when inflation can be forecast. Once inflation arrives the trade has already taken place. The validation of inflation becomes a "sell the news" event. People making these "inflation trades" are speculating. They are not using Bitcoin as a store of value like the rest of the community. They are simply a tourist coming into a sound money movement because they know that sound money is about to become a lot more desirable as a narrative.
Yeah as long as USD is here That's why I wrote if USD goes to crapper But in general this was/is the plan for Maker protocol *Dai is right now pegged to the USD because it’s the most used global currency and because of its familiarity. However it has always been the plan that the core stability function of Dai should eventually become independent from USD and instead represent pure stability in terms of consumer prices - a CPI basket. There will still be a USD version of the stablecoin available of course, but by having a CPI pegged stablecoin at the core of our system we would be able to resist any sort of external meltdown, such as the USD or another national currency collapsing* *Other than the familiarity of USD, the other big hurdle is that creating a CPI basket is very difficult. Our approach will be to utilize the decentralized governance process that is also used for risk assessment of Dai collateral, so MKR holders will ultimately have full control over the composition of the CPI basket by working together to create an open source scientific framework. It is obviously very ambitious and won’t happen until several years into the future*
Yeah okay - if the CPI doesn't improve for "years" the entire economy will collapse including the stock market. The CPI is a reflection of negligent diplomatic behavior in office between the political views of 2 parties and a financial strain given covid's detriment . You're absolutely reaching mr buttcoiner sir.
Invest what you can, when you can, and HOLD. Pretty straight forward, really. Coinbase or kraken would be my choices. Learn about what bitcoin is and why it is special from people like michael saylor. Or just buy 'the bitcoin standard' book. DO NOT sell for a loss, ever. What you could do is notice that your dollar cost average from last week might go down in response to something like CPI being released and sell that. For example I learned about this strat and the week before bought at 29ish then sold that tiny bit.. bought back in all the way back in from 22k to 18k as the price went down. Paying close attention. If you just 'dollar cost average' aka 20 per week or w/e you do better than people who try to time the market by like.. a lot lol. And its ZERO effort or research.
> just keep in mind there's a penalty for cashing in before the 5 year mark. 3 months interest which is nothing because you'll only cash out early if the interest rate drops to shit anyway. You'll make bank on the completely safe 10% returns while CPI is high otherwise.
I bartended for years in MS even. The manager and a few select servers can add on whatever they want in gratuity. I doubt this restaurant adding more gratuity randomly is indicative of anything. I’m sorry to hear about your beans. I’ll probably just stick with the CPI and market basket to gauge inflation. This is going to sound harsh and I only mean it in a nice-ish way, but if you’re a Mississippian who orders 3 ranch dressings on a salad, you are the opposite of someone I want to do listen to on anything important. Sorry. :)
My bet is on a couple weeks until Q2 earning are out and CPI. Not having a potential recession at least on paper is a good signal for a possible bottom. But I’m also not expecting a 2021 like bullrun more a relief rally and see what future brings. ( Russia, global economics … )
CPI now pushing 10% in kost western economies...elsewhere often higher. Remove 'cheap crap' (look around at your household contents and the contents of most shops, supply chains and even 60% of US businesses AI is Chinese sourced. The blindness of American exceptionism is tragic, and dangerous. Most nations largest trading partner is now China. Cut that and you will have riots on the streets...ie it cannot be done. Get it yet? Reality is USD vs DCEP vs BTC [https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/russia-and-china-unveil-a-pact-against-america-and-the-west](https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/russia-and-china-unveil-a-pact-against-america-and-the-west)
Ask the billion or so Indians if they can afford to stop trading with China. There would be riots in the streets of most nations if trade with China was halted due to the massive resultant CPI inflation and loss of exports. Your exceptionalism makes you blind to how China has already won the trade war.
These are all valid points so, thank you. 2018-2020 gets jumbled a bit for me because of winter/spring of 2020 having a sharp sell off. As for the markets picking back up, does the fed stating they’re aiming for several more hikes this year concern you? The most recent CPI report also showed we’re still behind inflation in a big way, so what’s stopping this from dragging on for an extended period of time? I feel like the pandemic accelerated a long awaited reckoning because the money printer has been ripping for quite some time now. Hell, I remember seeing proposals to move interest rates into < 0% but the fed wasn’t going negative.
Fed hike is already priced in, if it does dump because of this it I don’t believe it will be as big as the ones we’ve seen in recent months. I’d pay closer attention to next CPI numbers, that’s going to be critical as to whether or not we have reached peak inflation yet.
> Destroying money is almost as disrespectful as creating it. Why? The destruction creates a guaranteed demand for the currency, which increases liquidity and stability as well as enabling the Fed to shrink the money supply in response to above-target inflation. Essentially, every dollar is backed by a someone's promise to destroy that dollar in the future. Why is it wrong for stablecoin issuers to increase or decrease the supply of the stablecoin to enforce a promised, expected, and relied-upon peg? USD is a stablecoin targeted to 2% CPI inflation (medium term) with minimal price and interest volatility (short term).
All previous crypto bears were during a global (or at least US) bull run, the longest in history. US economy was slowing down in 2018 but nothing like we're seeing today. This is new territory for crypto and I really wouldn't expect any "traditional" metrics to hold water until CPI cools off.
Idk why but the feeling whales waiting for another capitulation doesn’t leave me alone… Celsius, 3arrows, miners, institutions are all on a cliff. Beside a pumping stock market & Q2 earnings and CPI I can’t see other reasons for BTC to pump anytime soon
Haha, what? You gave russia's number not me. We know for a fact the US number is a lie to keep social security, pension, and medicare costs in line. Former administors have said as much and you can see the CPI basket changes in realtime. Why do you say learn to cope? I am american bro, not russian. I am not pro russia in any way. I however anti US financial sanctions to people and countries that are not American. Especially when they are for reason that havw nothing to do with us and likely killed the dollar. Meh, maybe that.last thing is good. Bitcoin will help stop this nonsense. Lets keep it on financial and bitcoin. Peace.
Apparently news is that due to weak economic data, market is pricing in recession. So we go from fear of inflation to fear of recession. Why fear of recession = stonks up? -> because it might mean Fed can't deliver all the tightening they said they would when the economy was doing fine. Might even go back to stimulus at some point. It's the situation of "bad news is good news" we have seen in 2020-2021 Whether or not this keeps going is, if we start getting CPI prints lower and lower.
I'm not saying you shouldn't buy Bitcoin. You just shouldn't be a 100% in Bitcoin or 100% in cryptocurrency for retirement. Ever heard of diversification? You want to put all your eggs in one basket? >What good is a 401k that’s measured in dollars decaying at a minimum 8% CPI You're not really understanding how inflation affects the stock market. When I bought my 1st share of NVDA back in Feb of 14' at $16 and change that was with USD. Inflation happens, stock buybacks happen, and what do you know as inflation drives down purchasing power it drives up stock market valuations. Inflation is baked into the stock market. Now that same stock is valued at $162, but that was after a 4-1 stock split so If you were to not with the stock hypothetically it would be valued at $648 a share. My longest held portfolio that holds Nvidia is up 3,151%. That's more gaines than my Bitcoin as of now. If you don't think there's a place in a portfolio to be earning 3,151% return, then you're about batshit crazy. Nvidia is just one example, but just that one alone has already netted me six-figure returns. >Taxes will eat whatever remains when you start drawing payments at retirement Ever heard of a Roth IRA? You pay taxes up front. Everyone should have one. It also can be used as an emergency fund in a pinch. Also ever heard of capital gaines? you have to pay these on Bitcoin. I had to pay $16,000 in taxes on cryptocurrency for this past year. Bitcoin is in a name to taxes and other assets in retirement isn't either, So not sure what you're talking about. You dont avoid taxes anymore with cryptocurrency. >Real estate might get you some cover but what are the chances that your local government won’t rob you blind with property tax I purchased in 2015 for $188.5k. It appraised during the refinance last year $430k. I only pay about $2,400 a year in property taxes. The property value will continue to rise over long term even though a short-term correction is definitely in the cards to the tune of maybe 15 or 20%. I only owe 17 years left out of the original 25-year loan, and plan on selling in another 7-10years. So I'll pay about $24,000 in taxes over 10 years, but be able to turn a profit to the tune of >$200k. Once again I don't know how you see real estate as a bad investment. Yes it has its cons, but still deserves a place in a portfolio. >. Gold might be an option I do own some physical gold that I've been buying from JM Bullion. Definitely don't fool with the paper bs, and own the real thing. I don't really look at it as an investment but as a store of value. Gold fluctuates but usually isn't super volatile, and against the backdrop and for inflation should rise. Even if it holds steady though, It protects you from inflation. And if none of this still doesn't make any sense to you then just keep your fingers crossed with your retirement portfolio that is 100% Bitcoin. You could be totally fine and I hope you are because I'm betting on Bitcoin too, but if I'm wrong my retirement is secured. If You're wrong You're screwed and have nothing to show for it.
It’s not strange at all. Bitcoin is the only property that won’t get check mated by a fiat currency collapse. What good is a 401k that’s measured in dollars decaying at a minimum 8% CPI every year until a final crack up boom event. Taxes will eat whatever remains when you start drawing payments at retirement. Real estate might get you some cover but what are the chances that your local government won’t rob you blind with property tax or if you’re a landlord rent increase moratoriums, eviction moratoriums or other costly regulation preventing you from earning a return to cover the mortgage. Gold might be an option if it wasn’t for the blatent manipulation via the paper futures markets, rehypothication, and plain old counter party lying about reserves. Maybe you could stockpile commodities too. <shrugs> As far as I can see there is no safer bet than Bitcoin. I’m all in. </shrugs>
I'm starting to agree with you. J Pows word of the day was "expeditiously". I think it may be possible, depending on the next CPI numbers, which, I believe will be high, that the July raise may be 100 bps. Then possibly 50 in September and 25 in November. That'll put us in the Feds projected target by the end of the year. I think it'll be a bloodbath until then, but I believe we see the bottom sooner than later.
Basically my very initial point was that looking at growth using nominal values like in the main post can easily be interpreted as a huge and recent upswing even if the yearly growth is stable. And if the yearly growth is stable, it’s a completely different conclusion than if there is in fact a huge and recent increase in the growth rate. This is why these kind of charts should be shown either in a logarithmic scale, and/or the yearly growth in percentage. So say that we find that the yearly growth is stable, and that CPI and other indexes are also stable - then one possible answer to the question in the title is that most likely nothing will happen other than the nominal prices increasing whereas the real prices staying flat. But if we find that there is a recent increase in growth rate and that these are traditionally followed by higher inflation and that salaries are lagging behind - then a likely answer could be that we’ll get poorer. At least initially.
I see you bought ATH, JK. 😅 Everyone needs to take risks according to their risk tolerance. BUT... >Same can be said when BTC was at 40k. If you continued your DCA then- you would have lost 50% of your DCA. Seems like you don’t understand DCA at all my friend. If in Jan you bought at 40k, Feb at 35k, Mar at 30k, Apr at 25k, and May 20k, you definitely would not be at 50% lost. It's in the name itself Dollar Cost Average. Assuming you bought a whole BTC: you own 5 BTC and your cost average would be 30k. With a loss of 10k because the current price is 20k. You would be down ~33%. If you bought at 40k and waited and bought now again at 20k your average is still the same, BUT you own 2 BTC. When it's at 100k who has a better ROI?! >It doesn't make sense to blindly throw in money when things are looking awful and you have some understanding of economic policy. I think DCA isn’t based on economic policy but based on having trust in an asset that you BELIEVE will grow in value after X amount of time. *(Yes Monetary policies are important and you need to pay attention to them.)* >Everyone here yaps on about "DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH" and then when you do it and say -"Wait- shit might get really bad if the Feds start QT and interest rates go even higher than 0.75bp in July so I should wait to see the CPI numbers and GDP growth for the next quarter before continuing my DCA" - then people yell at you for "YOU aRe TiMiNg the Market". Its hypocrisy at its finest. If shit does get worst you will wait again because it could get even worst?! So no it's not hypocrisy. DCA is based on one principle IMO, if you believe and trust that the asset increases in value over time you want to accumulate as much of it as possible DESPITE circumstances and despite the price. You should use buy orders as someone else here suggested instead of waiting for confirmation. Buy orders help to catch the dips, buying at a price you’re happy with but also meaning you don’t have to observe the price all the time. >I had this argument with someone telling me to not wait to DCA into ATOM and it was at 22 dollars then. It went to 6 dollars. DONT LISTEN TO DCA ZOMBIES on this sub. The same thing it could have gone from 22 to 35?! What are the odds?! Neither of us knows... Look in the end do what fits your style of investments, lifestyle, dreams, and goals. But don’t just say things or think that your way is the best.
Been hearing that for years.....put up or shut the duck up NY-AG already has a report out that their audit shows Tether is all smoke and mirrors Q2 earnings are due to start dropping in a week and the June CPI is due in 3, the inevitable (imo) market catastrophe that's on the way is probably going to finally shake Tether out if it is indeed as fraudulent as a lot of experts say So I guess we shall see huh....
Same can be said when BTC was at 40k. If you continued your DCA then- you would have lost 50% of your DCA. It doesn't make sense to blindly throw in money when things are looking awful and you have some understanding of economic policy. Everyone here yaps on about "DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH" and then when you do it and say -"Wait- shit might get really bad if the Feds start QT and interest rates go even higher than 0.75bp in July so I should wait to see the CPI numbers and GDP growth for the next quarter before continuing my DCA" - then people yell at you for "YOU aRe TiMiNg the Market". Its hypocrisy at its finest. I had this argument with someone telling me to not wait to DCA into ATOM and it was at 22 dollars then. It went to 6 dollars. DONT LISTEN TO DCA ZOMBIES on this sub.
tldr; Canadian inflation jumped 7.7% in May, the biggest year-over-year increase since January 1983, according to Statistics Canada. The increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was driven by soaring gas prices, which rose 12% compared to April. All eight major components of the index saw increases in the month of May. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
This is kind of silly, no offense. For reasons that should be entirely obvious its inappropriate to use 1990 as a base for determining how to measure current inflation. "Shadow government statistics" ( a name that inspires comfidence) is throwing out commonly accepted practice in favor of following an outdated one, even sillier when you consider the impetus is this.... "Anecdotal evidence and occasional surveys have indicated that the general public believes inflation is running well above official reporting, and that public perceptions tend to mirror the inflation experience that once was reflected in the government’s formal CPI reporting." Anecdotal evidence of peoples feelings, essentially. Great....
The Fed is in a pretty impossible position. They have to get a handle on inflation, but the aggressive rate hikes and QT can’t go on for very long unless they want to induce a depression. Add to that the political pressure from an election year and the Fed is doomed either way. And so are we. That said, the CPI is a lagging indicator. Hopefully they can at least reduce the CPI a bit and get a downward trend before easing off the hawkishness.
> Zero elasticity is the point Then if you understand how supply and demand works you'll understand how its price can't ever stabilize. Unless for some reason, demand for Bitcoin starts to stay perfectly still then halve every 210,000 blocks for the next 100 years. Do you think that's likely? >It’s a fixed rate of issuance that can’t be changed by any individual [ruh roh](https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Value_overflow_incident) >compared with a monetary system that is nothing but price elasticity, which is resulting in 8% CPI and home prices that are beyond the affordability of the average person. price elasticity doesn't mean "prices go up". prices are going up precisely because USD supply are not perfectly elastic, if they were supply would reduce till inflation hit 0%. However its a lot more elastic than a currency which is literally hard coded to have 0 elasticity. >I am very happy to answer questions and help people who are genuinely curious and are interested in understanding what Bitcoin is. But I’m not interested in going back and forth with someone who has zero understanding along with an agenda where they’ve already made up their minds. If that’s not the case with you and I’ve misunderstood I do apologize… let me know if I’ve misread the conversation so far. I've not already made up my mind unless you're incapable of saying how an asset with 0 supply elasticity can become price stable. Is there are curiosity based reason you'd rather talk about my motivations rather than just answering the question? you've still not met this very basic challenge besides saying "zero elasticity is the point", which is not something we're disagreeing on, we both agree supply is inelastic, what we're disagreeing on is how a supply inelastic asset can have a stable price in an economy where demand is and never will be stable unless we move to a completely controlled economy where demand is fixed at exactly the rate Bitcoin decreases in supply.
Zero elasticity is the point. It’s a fixed rate of issuance that can’t be changed by any individual… compared with a monetary system that is nothing but price elasticity, which is resulting in 8% CPI and home prices that are beyond the affordability of the average person. I am very happy to answer questions and help people who are genuinely curious and are interested in understanding what Bitcoin is. But I’m not interested in going back and forth with someone who has zero understanding along with an agenda where they’ve already made up their minds. If that’s not the case with you and I’ve misunderstood I do apologize… let me know if I’ve misread the conversation so far.
I don't pay enough attention to notice I guess but are people actually calling this bounce to be a reversal? I think most people probably don't believe that. With that said there are possible reasons the bottom could come faster than previously. The rising rates mixed with how CPI is calculated being not great could easily lead to a fast reversal in the future. If logistical and manufacturer issues finally start clearing up and gas prices start to go down it could easily flip inflation around quickly. Add if the Ukraine Russia war ends and things could flip even faster as all these things are big macro factors. All those things said it makes this one of the hardest markets to navigate possibly ever. Anyone who thinks they KNOW what will happen is an idiot and right now if you are 100% in crypto I'd say don't just add to your crypto bag but also some stocks for diversity and then just...wait. Anything being invested now should be looked at as long term. Need anything short term right now keeping cash is important. Today you still need it for bills and all that and you should keep plenty of it in this situation. Can always invest it later. Too many people go all in or all out when a balance is always going to be the best route for your mental and financial health. Hopefully though things can just calm down a bit soon, I'd just like that at this point personally lol
So I'm spreading misinformation by using CPI as a measure of inflation? Get real. The Fed always raises interest rates to combat high inflation, so the fact that bitcoin is dropping in response to Fed rate hikes means it's a bad hedge against inflation. This is exaclty the opposite of what should happen if an instrument is an inflation hedge. Your stat on the 80% of dollars thing is disingenuous. Do you have a source? I'm fairly familiar with the various types of money and their supply, and I can't think of a single measure of total money supply that has gone up 80% in two years. It's silly that you are dabbling in such borderline conspiracy theories yet are accusing me of spreading false information.
CPI is a fraudulent metric that is carefully curated for political gain. It's common knowledge that actual inflation has been considerably higher for many years. You're cherry picking data. Bitcoin has fallen in part due to the collapse of various shitcoin ponzi scheme markets, but also due to anticipation that the Federal Reserve may attempt to tighten the money supply after more than a decade of historically reckless money creation and inflation. Don't forget that 80% of the dollars that exist today did not exist 2 years ago. Taking into account the broader picture leading up to the Fed's recent attempt to put the crack pipe down, Bitcoin has undeniably been an astounding hedge against inflation. You are either wilfully misinformed or intentionally spreading false information. Either way, stop it.
Just buy back in lower. I’m guessing my entry point will be when inflation has peaked, and then has been shown to go down for at least two CPI reports. That’s when I think we’ll be at the bottom. Until then, we’re going down.
>The reason rates are being increased is to start a recession. The Fed has literally said this. They are trying to slow spending cool the labor market. A recession is what cools inflation. Source on the Fed saying they're starting a recession verbatim? Their entire purpose is to not to have recessions. If they have to make you *think* one is definite and you sell all your assets and quit spending they've still done their job, and without raising rates to 10% (which the US *can't* afford to service). >Maybe rate hikes are baked in to current prices, but what about when companies start laying people off in 6 months? This stuff is just getting started. Then unemployment will go from its current historic low back up to average, the bottom 5% of people will be affected to help curb inflation which affects everyone. Aiming for interest rates and unemoloyment rate just to prepandemic levels - not that scary, things seemed ok then. The alternative is to let inflation run so high that people quit spending, but with inequality so bad that'll never happen before something breaks. The markets could react positively to unemployment increasing because it means something being done to reduce inflation, who knows. Mid terms always put in market lows anyways. Unemployment will be a scapegoat maybe but not really rational imo, same fud will happen every election. Now imo it makes sense to dump stimulus (or reduce interest to service loans) *as soon* as the CPI trend reverses. It lags by 6-12 months so we're still using last year's data when things were only beginning to open up and WFH ended and people started to drive and move back to cities, before prices rose as much as they did and all these recent lay offs. Once the data shows people have reduced spending the Fed will have to act fast to prevent recession (unless they've stated otherwise) and 6-12 months before it shows they've over reacted yet again (mini rally). If 2018 taught me anything it's the markets can/will be propped up under the *right* leadership. If the Fed wanted to start a recession, or actually stop inflation (rather than *signal* over and over that they do) they would raise rates 1000 points at a time, not piss around over 25. And if the markets were at all rational they wouldn't price in 1000 every time they talk about 25. Next year has a lot of uncertainty and I've never been certain it's going one way or the other, I'd be surprised if the Fed *signalled* everyone to go short. We have to wait and see. Hopefully the US dollar is strong enough to bounce back (it is at nearly a 20 year all time high *value*:dxy right now despite inflation, can afford *some* printing) or else it has lots of issues ahead (petrodollar / cbdc-dominance) next time inflation inevitably happens.
Kinda, except a lot of those taxes are indirectly helping you by supporting the society you are also a part of. Now, inflation on the other hand, is theft. Checking trueflation.com the real CPI is at 10.92%. So without doing your personal economic calculation, you're at almost 11% slave, which is still horrific compounding year over year.
Bitcoin front run inflation when it went up from $4k to $70k+, even at $18k it’s still compensated for all inflation and then some. Right now the FED reduced the money supply so everything went down, because there is less money. But they can’t do that for long with current debt load, they will have to reduce rates and print money within a year or less, and Bitcoin will run up again. It’s working perfectly, but it does not work exactly to match inflation month by month. BTW another explanation is any economic data is lagging by months or even longer and is faulty, CPI is not ~8% for example, but double if not more, you could argue Bitcoin actually follows the real numbers in real time, we just don’t know because we don’t have correct data on time.
You do know that before Clinton there had been 5 revisions to the CPI. Really every fiat currency has failed? Because there are 167 fiat currencies that haven't failed. But if you can show me a study that proves your claim I'll accept it. Also one question for you. If the U.S. dollar fails how does bitcoin solve the problem? Because last I checked bitcoin isn't backed by anything either.
First of all, real inflation is running 2x what they are currently reporting. Under Clinton they changed the CPI formula but using the old method it's running at over 17%. All attempts to control inflation are akin to putting lipstick on a pig. Ever since Nixon decoupled the dollar, and with it the rest of the world's currencies, from gold, the collapse of fiat money has been inevitable. EVERY. SINGLE. FIAT. CURRENCY. IN. HISTORY. HAS. FAILED. EVERY. ONE. It's just a matter of time.
I think bottom's probably in. Oil and natural gas did a lower low, we are on track for a lower CPI next month, liquidation cascade is ended, BTC dominance is falling... There could still be a potential drop at next US market open...