SBR
STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE
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Sunny Aggregator raked in over $3 BILLION in locked assets in just a few weeks and in return for 16% of SBR rewards earned from that nut they give out their currently useless SUNNY governance token. Amazing times.
Invest in the blockchain coins or their ecosystems?
How does saber USDT-USDC LP pairs provide such high apy?
Traded USDC for SABER (SBR) on Raydium and Disappeared
Mentions
Everybody hear me the fuck out please. I know it looks bad right now, even shit. But get some clarity in your minds. We are just under ATH at post halving year, more specifically 16 months after halving. We usually top out between the 17th and the 18th month, usually in the last 3 months of the year, we are three weeks away from getting rate cuts (bullish at for risk assets), we have an SBR, institutions keep buying, we have ETF’s, we have the most important president in the world holding bags too as well as the people around him. Doesn’t get better than this. Buy the fucking dip and enjoy.
yeah. with all the adoption, ETF, SBR, everything. Really disappointing that we did an ATH in eur in January and then everything else that happened was just usd shitting the bed.
Looks like yet another changing narrative once the "Omega & God" candles didn't pan out after the ETF approval, SAB120 Repeal, SBR, Regulatory Clarity. New narrative to disguise the disappointment is "Long Term Stability and Low Volatility" despite the fact that just a ew months ago we had a 30% drop in a matter of weeks.
Bessent stating that the government won't actually be buying more btc for the SBR,seems to have taken the wind out of the sails.
This cycle proves diminishing returns is real. Just look at the price action... we haven't even doubled the previous cycles high after over 4 years. I was expecting more— a lot more. Things are looking a bit grim imo. And now that Bitcoin is underperforming its previous cycles, just look how the narratives have changed. Remember the "God Candles" or "Omega" candles all the influencers were talking about once the ETF was approved, once the SBR was approved, once SAB 121 is rescinded, once we get regulatory clarity, etc... it goes on and on. They were wrong about everything! And now the new narrative "institutional will cause a slow grind up and end volatility" completely contradicts the old one of a "violent upward green candles" that they were shilling for so long. Just look back. Literally every single thought-leader/influencer has been completely wrong about Bitcoin's performance. Nobody knows shit about fuck.
I think it was a controlled knowing misdirection, that adhered to the letter of the law at the time. Bessent was speaking before Trump has signed the Lummis SBR bill. Nevermind that the bill passed the Senate and House and was sitting on Trump's desk waiting for his signature... it's not law until he signs it and he could still change his mind. At the time of the statement he had no mandate or funding to buy BTC. The second the bill is signed, that changes.
Important to note that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the US Digital Asset Stockpile are two distinctly different things. Im pretty sure that the policy is that there will be no purchases of cryptocurrencies for to the USDAS, only confiscations. Then there will be budget neutral acquisition of BTC for the SBR.
The SBR is in the same spot as always, they won't buy any but they'll hold what they do have. Bessent's comment wasn't news, just reiterated the existing stance. And rate cuts probably coming September, but either way the market has been doing fine without them, we literally have both BTC and ETH close to ATH and I don't think it would be fair to say that's because of rate cut expectations.
>No SBR >"White House affirms that while they aren't directly buying BTC, they have no intention of selling their current reserve and will continue adding to their stockpile with criminal asset seizure. Choose only the second one
Lot of tough news, no rate cuts this year, no SBR, those were two things we were holding onto. Guess its over.
Even coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has repeatedly said if the US Gov grows their SBR other G20 countries will follow. Hopefully Trump's phony administration just keeps printing more money, weakening the dollar.
There is a dichotomy that I find interesting. Bitcoin itself is the same. What changes is people's perceptions - who is pro bitcoin and why. Who is anti-bitcoin doesn't really change, nor do their reasons. It does seem that the long heralded institutional era has begun and so it seems too early for the nation state era to really begin. I've always thought that, even when the SBR was announced. To much too soon. But there's an oscillation to the Overton window, like dipping a toe into the water, each time. Some institutions started last cycle. Some nation states started this cycle. The direction is clear on that time-scale.
Both, no SBR and high PPI.
pfff never sell your BTC buy CEFs (CRF, CLM, special drip at NAV) buy income generators (e.g., ULTY, YMAX, YBTC) buy growth (e.g., SCHG, QQQM) buy MLPs and REITs/mREITs (e.g., ET, USAC, O, MAIN, CSWC, SBR, etc.) buy Strategy preferred (STRK, STRF, STRC) - STRK = Yield Engine - STRF = Stability Layer - STRC = Capital Anchor - STRD = (situational) buy buy buy and hodl after all the years of fancy trading and options trading etc., I have found that these instruments are sufficient and that buy and hold is the best strategy (for me) because it frees up my time but these vehicles still use the same mechanisms I used to trade so now I have more time but keep the yield Accumulation is the name of the game Rebalance when you have opportunities that make sense but accumulate often and sit on it Time in the market beats timing the market Focus on tax strategy Don't follow stupid fads like selling MSTY to buy ULTY just keep hodling the MSTY and ride out the investment while you continue to accumulate elsewhere
Bo Hines said the SBR should be coming in short order! Lets hold him to it. Email Bo!
WI doesn’t yet have an SBR proposal yet, but I believe their largest state pension holds Bitcoin.
History says back then there weren't Bitcoin ETF's, Bitcoin treasure companies or SBR's.
Haven’t even had interest rate drops, announcement of how the us is gonna fund SBR, banks selling BTC. We goin to the moon 🌕 🚀
The market may act irrational for any reason but especially for BTC I think the biggest potential risks are Trump administration imploding and dragging crypto down the drain with it due to its positive stance in which Bitcoin may take a huge hit, especially fears around the SBR being reversed and sold off which would cascade the whole market down in the short term. War would of course be bad too until BTC is seen as the de facto backing of the involved countries currencies makes that way harder and a majority of capital adopts a Bitcoin Standard sentiment. Long term I think there is nothing stopping it, on the contrary everything points to Bitcoins rise both due to "good" things like the new US legislation around crypto / SBR / Corporation adoptions etc and the "bad" like tariffs / EU economic development and policy and idiotic crypto projects like XRP taking focus from Bitcoin etc.
Initial focus was on the 3 crypto bills that are currently in various stages of becoming law. My guess is once those are all signed we will see a focus on the SBR.
Buy BTC, ETH, XRP. Too late for 10x. Still riding it myself. With Saylor, SBR, corporate treasuries, blackrock, ETF all buying. and new stablecoin regulation. What else do you need?
My private SBR doesn't move the needle does it? 😅
> Why would I bother? Because you've made a claim, and you can't substantiate it with simple examples, which means you're not serious (either you're tolling, or you're just not qualified to talk about this). You said reserves are not necessary, so you should have examples of cases where in practice they aren't used and still lead to success. The real answer is none, no government or successful business operates without reserves, because they are necessary, contrary to your claim. They help mitigate risks like economic shocks, unexpected expenses, currency instability, and cash flow gaps. > Cameroon and Nicaragua operate without reserves, but you'll tell me they're not good enough examples. Which AI's arm did you twist to come up with these 2 names? Both of these countries have reserves (including gold) valued in **b**illions of dollars: * Nicaragua: [$3.21 billions](https://www.maxinomics.com/nicaragua/foreign-exchange-reserves-including-gold-billion-usd) * Cameroon: [$3.46 billions](https://www.maxinomics.com/cameroon/foreign-exchange-reserves-including-gold-billion-usd) > Any number of small to medium businesses operate without reserves, but that won't be enough for you. We're talking about governments and successful businesses at a scale where cash-flow is an important notion past knowing if you're going to have electricity next week or not. Nobody cares about brick and mortar shops with an owner that doesn't pay themselves and will be bankrupt next year (many times because they don't make enough to build reserves, ironically enough). Note the "successful" qualifier before "business" in my previous message. I won't hold you more, go back to your daydreaming about governments spending everything they collect/produce and don't necessitate reserves. I'll go back in reality, where ALL governments operate with reserves (mandated by laws or not) and few of them are now considering Bitcoin mature enough to have some in their reserves. Most recently a small one, maybe you've heard of it, they're called the USA, they've laid out plans for one with their SBR.
They already announced the SBR and it was not worth the hype.
Keep DCA and if you really believe it will dip just put a small amount on the side every month. Me I don’t care when I buy since this baby is going to 250k, 500k, 1m, 10m, it will happen at some point. Even at 250k people will think it’s undervalued. Even at 1m. These prices don’t mean shit right now, we are still earlier than most countries can set up a SBR.
this is the most crypto friendly administration in history. Trump's cabinet are all pro BTC. FASB, SAB 121 repeal, SBR, banks holding crypto. the list goes on.
Looks like the Trump administration is giving the states a head start. Once enough of them have signed off and stacked some SBRs in their portfolios, the federal SBR will drop, get approved instantly, and go live. The states will be sitting on a pile of cheap BTC just before it moons. Does anyone else think so, too?
Well plus the US has an SBR via EO.. About as much as they could do without the senate.
Early miner sold to either the US GOV SBR or sold to Elon musk is my best guess
How many “Bitcoin Black Swans” are out there waiting for their target price and not needing the money? Supply Shock is a real possibility by simple Supply and demand imbalance. For the comment about “hearing of supply shock for the past 5 years” well there was no buying momentum with players like : Strattegy-Saylor, Blackrock and friends ETFs, corporate and country SBR 5 years ago. So let’s get real : Supply Shock is coming. This is not wishful thinking. Read this article in Medium with plausible scenarios based on new crypto bank regulations. Bitcoin at $250 000 in 2025: A Com Bitcoin at $250 000 in 2025: A Comprehensive Analysis of Supply-Demand Dynamics and Price based on… https://medium.com/trading-chart-analyst/bitcoin-at-250-000-in-2025-a-comprehensive-analysis-of-supply-demand-dynamics-and-price-based-on-2e1aa74e6e08 prehensive Analysis of Supply-Demand Dynamic.
Lets hope Trump doesn't TACO the SBR.
>Every cycle there are people claiming this time is different This is the first cycle where ETF's are buying by the billions and the first SBR's are starting to take shape.... Tell me this cycle isn't different.
Texas Update: Gov. Abbott today signed 300 bills, but *not* Bitcoin Reserve bill SB 21. BUT - He *did* sign HB 4488, which ensures that the SBR (if created) would be protected as a permanent fund. And reminder: with or without his signature, SB 21 becomes law on Sunday. [Source](https://x.com/bitcoin_laws/status/1936189841303347438?s=46&t=ihVglVXC0BQSbw6j57EoaA) 👀 doesn’t want market front running I take it
1 Million coins (SBR) is worth roughly $100 bn today. To match net debt, Bitcoin needs to rise 37x, probably much more to allow for healthy rebalancing. I would assume the US government is aiming for $5-10m/BTC throughout the next 5 years.
Followed BTV for past 8 years but was not well educated + convinced government would "shut it down" When Trump won and anounement of SBR, I got educated and saw the risk gone. Bought 7 months ago and been deep red numbers ever since due to dollar collapse. I dont have any remorse I did not buy past 8 years. I do have big remorse I did not wait 3 more months when It was down 25% in BTC and another 15% in currency. Thats 40% in few months god Damn.
There is tremendous pent up demand from multiple sources from ETFs, Bitcoin corporate funds (MSTR), government SBR, corporate treasuries, sovereign funds. And with new regulations on stablecoins we are looking at a huge retail movement through actual banks. Possibly an additional 50M additional Bitcoin holders in the alone. $150K Bitcoin is not as much wishful thinking anymore.
This cycle is different: Trump, SBR, MicroStrategy, ETFs, treasuries buying, sovereign funds, new stable coin legislation, Potential USD decoupling. Should I go on…..
It is never too late to invest even $1000 in Bitcoin. The momentum from new US legislation, ETF demand, corporate treasuries, SBR, sovereign funds ; with send Bitcoin from $105K to $500K easily then to $1M. Where can you find an asset with such appreciation potential? Get in the market. ASAP.
ETF's are buying up all the newly mined supply, So does MSTR, with bitcoin treasury companies popping up left and right. Oh and the SBR in the US (and a few other, still insignificant countries). Demand seems to be increasing, and we all know the new supply will be decreasing. Tell me the future doesn't look bright! I never said bitcoin cannot fail. I said I am almost 100% certain that bitcoin is going to the moon. It even was a little dig at the guy saying "When I walk the street I’m almost 100% certain I’m going to make it to the other side". If me saying what I say has any influence on your faith, then oh well, maybe your faith isn't that strong. Do what you please anyway.
I get what you're saying but at least get your facts straight, BTC only hit 100k after Trump was talking about it and he won the election. This entire run from 60k came from hype around US SBR. Don't be surprised to see a crash back to 60k or lower if this doesn't materialize. Institutions will be quick to dump they won't always be buying if the news is bearish.
When is Gavin going to sign the Texas SBR bill into law?
Well on the bright side the SEC has gotten cleaned up and a new SBR was created and those should be long-lasting changes. I just don't get why the markets freak out and panic sell over every little thing. How do these people make the argument that crypto is going to $500k but then they sell at $105k because somebody called somebody else a meaniehead on X? And we know it's not retail selling. It's all these big wigs that keep feeding us stories about how everything is going to moon at any day now and BTC is going to take over the world as they're putting in sell orders.
If Trump goes ahead and buys BTC for Trump media, then they’ll be front running a SBR. I agree with this theory. But if bluebird has no foreseeable revenue, this sort of post is an absolute nothing burger. To suggest otherwise, you are fooling yourself, or trying to fool others. That’s all I am saying.
Tese aren't minnows. They're dolphins. With the NUMBER of dolphins, plus whales, plus minnows & shrimp... the combined number of Bitcoin going into Treasury reserves WILL outpace all sellers significantly this year and likely next year too. I'm not seeing how a bear market is even remotely possible with the number of companies/funds claiming to swap to a Bitcoin reserve. The countries really haven't even started... but if the U.S. does flip the switch on for the SBR, then you're going to want to buckle up.
Feel great I have a five to ten year outlook on bitcoin, minimum. I want to just let it increase and loan it for cash so i never have to sell it and i have also been dollar cost averaging. It was overpriced when I bought in January i thought a SBR was coming so there would not be a pullback then the tariffs happened. I do not think it is overpriced now. I also can collateralize my bitcoin for 5% interest loans now. Time in the market is king, dont wait on the sidelines, for me yea it sucked watching it dip to 75K but i am happy to have bitcoin
I figure the SBR is dead now,outside of lummis it's gone pretty quiet in general.
This is approximately equivalent to South Carolina announcing a SBR.
tldr; Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, announced at the 2025 Bitcoin Conference that the U.S. government will retain all Bitcoin in its custody and seek budget-neutral methods to grow its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Hines emphasized Bitcoin's scarcity and intrinsic value, likening it to 'digital gold,' and ruled out selling any government-held Bitcoin. Suggestions for increasing the reserve include mining royalties and selling altcoins from the Digital Asset Stockpile to acquire more Bitcoin. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Lol what does this have anything to do with Bitcoin? Trump can peddle his memecoin bullshit all day. He has zero long term influence over BTC, besides establishing a true SBR
Pakistan to allocate 2,000 MW of electricity to Bitcoin mining & AI datacenters They plan to use surplus (hydro, wind, solar) energy, which'll make renewable generation more profitable They've been watching Bhutan closely. This will enable them to build their own SBR
[Texas Governor Greg Abbott posted an article about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve movement on his X account](https://x.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1925758015459738065). This potentially signals Abbott is preparing to sign SBR into law.
BTC now has more friends than enemies, but the enemies are very powerful - governments and central banks. Neither are going to give up without a fight, although all their invective and fear-mongering over the last 10 years seems to have come to nothing. This makes them even more fearful so you will see madder and crazier laws being written in the vain hope of trying to get rid of it. For Europe I believe they are working really hard to bring forward the roll-out of CBDC to later this year. I fear that haste my backfire on them super-hard. People get the concept of economic and other freedom, are sick and tired of devaluation and having to pay for "mistakes" and miscalculations etc. How long is a piece of string. It all really depends on CBs and economies being able to get a grip. The higher inflation goes, increasing cost of living, unemployment etc, will all be deciding factors. Some countries will go faster than others. Hence assorted US States enacting various pieces of legislation. This level of adoption cannot be ignored for long. Outcome of Genius Act and SBR (I believe to be debated in August) is also going to dictate the pace. We cannot foresee all things but I would hazard a guess that both Genius and SBR failing would impact the market. Which way is not clear to me. BTC is part of a paradigm shift and those already invested and especially those who have been on this journey for a long time, have never been thwarted by legislation. An idea has taken hold. Across the world. Across any divide we humans have created - religious, political, income/class etc.
The Texas House is right now about to begin its second reading of its Bitcoin reserve bill and we might get a vote shortly. If this passes the House, it's 99.9% going to be approved by the Governor because he's a Republican and outspokenly pro-crypto. Texas passing an SBR bill is much more bullish than New Hampshire, so hold onto your balls because BTC is about to moon even more.
Waiting on Genius Act then SBR will be debated around August. Hard to know at this point about purchases - I think it would be a mega fight. More likely they will just formalise their hodl strategy of repo'd coins
IMO Bitcoin will never be ‘mainstream’ in the sense people think sometimes think that every person on earth will hold it. It’s the same thing with stocks/ETFs/etc, only a fraction of people know how it works and hold some. If you think otherwise it’s because Reddit and specific subs are echo chambers. This being said I think what will push it forward is a big country like EUA/Canada/main EU countries creating SBR. I would say also a big company like Apple/Microsoft buying in but Tesla has been holding Bitcoin for years and no one even cares, so not sure.
Until the U.S. starts buying for the SBR
I'm not sure how anybody can have this outlook right now. - Fed is extremely likely to end QT this year. - U.S. is finding ways to buy BTC later this year for the SBR. -States like New Hampsire, Arizona, TX and more are starting state level SBRs - Businesses like MetaPlanet many more are adopting MSTR's strategy and becoming purely Bitcoin companies who's entire purpose is to invest and advance BTC's future. - hash rate hitting new ATHs all the time - BTC dominance hitting ATHs - We are sitting above $100k and the ETFs are seeing record inflows. - we just have a several year long bear market I don't get how people see these things and say we are headed into a bear market.
New Hampshire and Arizona both just passed SBR
You could mention about the SBR or say the top performing companies in the world are Bitcoin treasury companies, or let him know the market cap is as large as google / amazon now. People will open their eyes eventually. I just tell them they should study Bitcoin if they want to preserve their wealth, or they don’t have to doesn’t make a dif to me 🤷♂️ lol
Hard to tell, some people say the sudden increased demand, or inflow of money. others point out that the dollar is worth less now and ask for more dollars when selling. Electricity prices can also affect the price since miners need to pay their bills. Sometimes boardroom decisions and political decisions have a direct effect since adding SBR and bitcoin to the balance sheet increases the sentiment. Sometimes Mr Trump announces something that affects the price. That will not happen now though, the next 24 hours he will negotiate peace between India and Pakistan, but maybe after Friday lunch?
Wow I am genuinely surprised Katie Hobbs signed the Arizona SBR bill after vetoing the prior one. Wonder what changed? Maybe it was the backlash she got but damn it is refreshing to see a politician put aside party BS for once and actually be willing to change their vote. This is not just a small state like NH either, AZ is a \~$500 billion GDP economy, roughly equal to about Norway/Thailand/Austria. It's beginning. Altcoiners...come home to daddy Bitcoin...
But not overnight. BTC has risen 28% in a month. The correlation is not lining up. What I think? the New Hampshire SBR is a driver. Other states aren't far behind.
It was just an example to show you that the debasement of the dollar will drive the (dollar) price of bitcoin up, forever. This of course assumes similar demand. I actually do believe in $10 million per bitcoin in 10 to 20 years, but that really depends on mass adoption, the SBR etc. I do believe we are in mass adoption phase right now.
Mods dont like repeat posts in this sub. Isnt just about this one topic. Do you know how many other New Hampshire SBR posts they likely deleted after I posted this one?
Did you read it? US SBR has been approved but hasn't made a single purchase yet (therefore no price action beyond speculation). Definitely excited about US SBR but until it makes a purchase I don't think it will move the needle much. New Hampshire allows for up to 5% of public funds: https://gc.nh.gov/bill\_status/legacy/bs2016/billText.aspx?sy=2025&v=SP&id=707#:\~:text=II.%20%C2%A0Notwithstanding%20RSA,by%20the%20legislature.
Wasn't the SBR deadline meant to be today for the US treasury to outline how it was going to be set up, I must of missed it.
What time is this SBR announcement?
Discussions with US treasury may lead to a SBR in the UK sooner as expected.
tldr; Arizona has become the first U.S. state to pass a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) bill, allocating 10% of its public funds annually to Bitcoin to protect against inflation and economic uncertainty. Senate Bill 1025 was approved by the Arizona House with a 31-25 vote and now awaits Governor Katie Hobbs' decision. The move has sparked discussions in other states and influenced Bitcoin's market value, which rose 1% to $94,500. Advocates view this as a step toward financial resilience and fostering a robust digital asset ecosystem. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.
Hes the dumb one for not...be patient and think of it the same way you would any retirement tool. Just forget it's there and stop looking for the instant profit. Think of it like a 401k or any other retirement vehicle just let it sit there and work its magic. If you asked anyone about Nvidia in 99 or Netflix in 02 they'd probably say the same thing and look how well those investments played out. Countries ,nation states , and institutions are creating SBR. So all these people who run these financial giants are dumb 🙄. If you bought a house in 2018 It would've cost you 5000 btc at the avg of 350k today to buy that same house its now 435k and cost you 6 or 7 btc. So what does that tell you? Its a deflationary asset. Not only did it bridge the gap it costs you way less over time to do the same thing. You cant say the same for fiat if you held that same 350k in the bank you would have lost valuation.
I am bullish on bitcoin, I think the SBR is far more impactful that the market reaction suggested. But this is just pure hopium speculation, something people on this subreddit seem to suffer a lot from.
I also started small, I regret that now 😅 I mean that was way before all these positive developments like SBR, states eyeing BTC, sovereign nations, companies pumping it. Yeah it looks less risky than a few years back even at these prices. Prepare to sit on a 50% loss for like a year as a bad case scenario, it comes back. Any worse economic situation like that and BTC probably is pumping not dumping
Remember Chris Pan who got booed at the OSU commencement speech for bring up bitcoin? [https://www.reddit.com/r/Columbus/comments/1cl4epr/reaction\_to\_chris\_pan\_mentioning\_bitcoin\_at\_osus/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Columbus/comments/1cl4epr/reaction_to_chris_pan_mentioning_bitcoin_at_osus/) They still resent him for it almost a year later, AFTER bitcoin ETF approval and SBR promise: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Columbus/comments/1i2ofax/newly\_released\_emails\_from\_ohio\_state\_detail/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Columbus/comments/1i2ofax/newly_released_emails_from_ohio_state_detail/) Respect the fate people insist on themselves.
It already succeeded. It has ETF. Countries are holding it. U.S even has SBR.
Im convinced The Economist understands what’s going with Bitcoin but they are underplaying it so rich people have a chance to load their bags first. Of course they know that the SBR will be taken up as a legislative priority when US Congress returns from August recess. Of course they know M2 is rising and this fall Bitcoin officially gets that “state sanction.”
The article https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/04/16/how-a-dollar-crisis-would-unfold Unwalled https://archive.ph/hT8pJ >The world would suffer because the dollar has no equal—just pale imitations. The euro is backed by a big economy, but the euro zone does not produce enough safe assets. Switzerland is safe but small. Japan is big, but has its own vast debts. Gold and cryptocurrencies **lack state backing**. Say hello to my little friend, [SBR](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/). Not that Bitcoin needs backing, (it is the asset that will eventually back everything) but I guess these economists just love the state slavery and anything that the daddy government touches is the Holy Grail.
good with need more clueless dumb people to vote for SBR. lets goooooo
You need to update your model, The ETFs and the SBR change things significantly. You can already see how dramatically its changed via the price action this cycle.
I was thinking that Howard Lutnick would be wise to prod the IRS and all govt agencies to accept BTC for the SBR. Talk about hoovering it up to forever lockup…
Agreed. Recent price action has been 100% fear and uncertainty driven. We basically manifested our own correction and made recession indicators flash despite no true underlying issues. It's actually a pretty poignant example of market psychology driving everything. There's no covid or defaulting banks. Tariffs have barely been active. Everyone just panicked because they thought for a second they might have elected a madman who doesn't understand macroeconomics. (He does). Yes he's reckless and this is a dangerous game that could backfire, but there's clearly a plan. But yesterday proved the Trump Put is still a thing and that this is all a negotiation albeit a risky one. Trade deals will get made one by one. Inflation will come in way cooler than expected the next couple months. The fed will ease. The market will regain confidence. All the sidelined money will chase prices up. The SBR will get introduced to Congress and hit the news cycle. The DXY is way down. Global liquidity is up. None of the crazy bullish BTC news we got in February and March got priced in. It's only been a day so the fear hasn't subsided but as price goes up, the greed will kick in quickly. 90 days is a long time in markets. I'm biased because I loaded up on MSTR calls at the bottom on Tuesday. But this is a perfect textbook setup for the next leg up. I'm glad the other posters here are still fearful. Good sign. Time will tell.
*SBR: Strategic Bankrupt and Recession*
I believe it was because trump didn’t even mention the SBR executive order in the first 24 hours of his presidency (Jan 20th) like we all thought was gonna happen.
Lump sum is what gives the best returns in the long run, but yes, with that said, DCA is the best method for most people. Bitcoin wont go down to 40K because of ETF, BlackRock, SAB 21, SBR and so on. The demand for Bitcoin is simply to great imo.
Well you were wrong? The things Trump has done for the crypto space in this short time is incredible. It looks bad right now, but with crypto glasses on, we had Ross freed, Banks can custody your Bitcoin now, we have SBR, chokepoint 2.0 is gone…. I could go on. He has kept all of the promises when it comes to crypto that he made during the election campaign.
The first Bitcoin buy for the SBR is my guess. It will illustrate the pathways (within the budget neutral framework) they intend to do it and the pace they're willing to acquire. If they suggest a budget neutral avenue with a lot of runway behind it, like repricing the US gold reserves, then Bitcoin will moon due to having a lot of firepower to acquire. I do agree with your QE and lower rates being major catalysts ahead as well.
I don't even know where to start with how stupid, shortsighted, and inexperienced this take is. The outlook for crypto currency has literally never been brighter. We have legitimized the space drastically with repealing SB1, so banks can not issue bitcoin and crypto products and hold bitcoin on the books like they can with other financial assets. The SBR was just passed. The president of the US just started a bitcoin mining company and want to provide incentives for other companies to mine btc in the US. Here you are with your finger up your ass pretending that you know what you're talking about. Ususally, do people get rich during bear markets or bull markets? Both. **You need the bear market buying opportunities to have significant bull market gains.** If you aren't buying in a bear market and have the cash, you're just a shortsighted idiot who should let their 401k manager do all of this for you because you are bad at it.
If anything they're more likely to do the opposite and implement a Bitcoin export tax, similar to how some countries have implemented metal export taxes to control domestic supply. With the US implementing a SBR, it would make sense for them to also try and keep Bitcoin in the hands of its citizens.
we got more institution adoptions , we got SBR, we got bitcoin ETF, we got less regulations. If 109k is the top then bitcoin is dead to me.
So you worry about wallets being hacked in the future, and you worry about people walking away from bitcoin due to lack of price go up. Until quantum computing, no wallets will be hacked. Even when quantum computing is here, it remains to be seen how quick it can break sha256. But by the time there will be quantum-proof wallets on the market. As for people walking away from bitcoin.... Since the ETF, money is pouring into bitcoin. We have just had the confirmation that the US is going ahead with the SBR. It doesn't get any better than that. Jees, just stack and HODL. In general, the more you study bitcoin, the better you sleep. I am all in, and I sleep like a baby, even when the price tanks. Wherever you decide to put your money, it is always a risk. Bitcoin is the best asset, when you see that, you stop worrying.
Few things I would add: 1. There are larger whales and Hodlers (who will never sell) like Saylor 2. Depending on which estimates you use 2-5M bitcoins are lost forever 3. If nation-states start buying for SBR they will never sell. 4. Not all 21M is in circulation yet That said I am agreeing with you and just saying it is more scarce than you described.
The bull market has hardly begun. Last cycle most people predicted ATH of \~$125k in 2021 and we still haven't reached that. 4 year average CAGR has dropped to its lowest ever point. Yet talk of SBR and increased corpo adoption is all around hinting we might see a supercycle here. $84k is certainly not expensive, it's more like 99% discounted. This is a $200tn idea trading at $2tn currently. Psychologically it might be easier if you DCAd a small amount every week and set it and forgot about it.
I watch adoption more than price. If there's new corpos converting cash into bitcoin and the SBR finds a source of revenue then the only way is up. At $84k bitcoin is currently heavily suppressed. This should incentivise new entrants to buy in whilst it's on 99% discount. This is a $200tn idea trading around $2tn.
Forever is a long time, so I would bet that there will be more than a few attempts by large organizations or governments to either fork BTC or create their own version and push that as "better". For instance Blackrock has a clause in their ETF that they can choose a forked version of BTC, regardless of market value, and use that for the ETF underlying asset. Think about that. They could fork BTC, pre-mine it, acquiring a large stake, then offer that as Bitcoin to investors. They also have a HUGE stake in the top miners, so they could direct them to mine the forked version, or incentivize it in another way, which would help secure the network and add instant value. Blackrock could pull this off, but IMO, it's a very limited window. Nation state adoption of the original Bitcoin is already underway, solidifying the original version as "digital gold". Once that happens, which it can be argued already has, that window essentially closes. Would countries create an SBR of a forked Bitcoin version that's likely more centralized than Bitcoin? I doubt it. If anything, they'd want to fork their own version and put that in reserves, but that wouldn't be very valuable would it? The more you go down that rabbit hole, the more you start to see how the only way to supplant BTC would be to create a better version AND have BTC fail in some capacity. Otherwise, you're fighting against an entrenched leader with perfect security and widespread adoption. The best opportunity anyone has in the future is developing a "quantum-proof version of Bitcoin", and it would still take original Bitcoin not adapting to the new threat AND being compromised to overtake it. I just don't see that happening, as Bitcoin core developers will forever be ahead of threats. Basically, it's become impossible to offer a better version at this stage and it's difficult to see a future where it's replaced with something better, only something more centralized.
It was weird seeing such a weak pump on the SEC news. But with the SBR news, it pumped to 3.00. That was on a weekend tho so the market is more susceptible to manipulation.
Ukraine war is ending Government isn’t shutting down Global liquidity is increasing SBR I struggle to see much more downside outside of temporary tariff volatility
Not just paper hands, paper brain too. Sell after the SBR announcement is just idiotic.
Nice that means BRICS is forcing USA into the SBR!
SBR. Yes, you read that right. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could be a gigantic black swan for Bitcoin. It goes like this: 1- Components of a SBR 2- Reserve paradox 3- Adoption 4- Mistakes 5- Black Swan 1- The Bitcoin reserve should be comprised of only Bitcoin, that goes without saying. Nonetheless, there were announcements of other altcoins to be included. That is a big indication of the following points in this post, because it shows that the government doesn't know much of what they are talking about. 2- Even if they do everything right and they create a SBR comprised of only Bitcoin, you are faced with the following paradox: USA, the mayor economy in the world, has convinced the whole world to use their money (Dollars) as reserve. So the argument that they should have a SBR to protect themselves from the devaluation of the dollar is contradictory. Or at least is confusing for other economies. 3- If they create a solid, Bitcoin only SBR and also they somehow advance beyond the paradoxes, the most probable outcome is that all the other economies will also have their SBR 4- The thing is that for a long long time there were 2 things happening in the world: a fractional banking system and governments who's only concern was how to spend money. If they apply these rules but with a SBR that is a big mistake. See, in a fractional banking system, if a bank branch lends more than they have in their reserves, HQ can simply print more money for them. If HQ is in trouble, the Fed can print more money for them. And governments, banks, buisinessmen in general are all too used to working like thet. But if you try that with a SBR you have: 5- Black swan. That is when a Bank branch, the bank HQ and the central bank, all of them forgot that BTC can't be printed out of thin air. All of them expanded their loans, their spending beyond what they could afford and now they have to pay back. In Bitcoin. You think that this is waaaay too imaginative but governments spend, that's their modus operandi and banks speculate with risk. Believe me that more than one of them will say "don't worry, this risk is manageable" forgetting that with Bitcoin there is no lender of last resort.
Let's go through bullish signals right now. * Gold ATH * M2 on the rise * Tariff damage mostly behind us * SBR established * SBR buying in the works * SAB121 out of the way for banks * Russia using bitcoin * MSTR tapping 21b via a new channel * New ETFs with exposure to companies with 1K+ bitcoin * New ETFs with exposure to convertable bonds from bitcoin companies What am I missing? I'm so ready