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Silicon motion max linear merger arbitrage play (Similar to Twitter)
Halt- MXL terminates SIMO deal - going to be blood in the streets tomorrow for SIMO holders after sudden turn of events. Ouch!
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Hello, with Starlink about to IPO, I can see a sincere and strong need for MXL products. As of today, what do you think about the company, and what are your projections being that I can see you have held onto with the longest
Guys - I think something big about to happen with [India military](https://youtu.be/H4MXL5mK1uM?t=137)
What’s your current outlook now, going into October? MXL has been teetering around $16 ever since but honestly, I think this is undervalued as fuck and has the possibility to rocket off of AI hype like Credo and Broadcom.
$GSIW Garden Stage: +49.15% $IXHL Incannex Healthcare : +32.67% $VLN Valens Semiconductor : +23.45% $MXL MaxLinear: +21.48% $BLMZ BloomZ : +14.97%
MXL, undervalued semi stock thats going to be returning to positive free cash flow this year. had a big boom during the semi shortage and i’m hoping it’ll start to do very well in the next year or two
I think I’m one of few who played MXL and glad I did. Hoping to see 20% tomorrow
Anyone in on MXL or CLS?
It depends what time frame you're looking at. $MXL is not really investable imo
So wsb idea is that Trump will put tariffs on TSMC, so american fabless companies like TXN, ADI, QCOM, NVDA, AMD, MXL and probably some other would suffer? Regarded AF 
Someone actually posted the behind the scenes footage [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/nextfuckinglevel/s/QdNy7u8MXL).
M&A - Mergers and Acquisitions. This info will be a bit outdated, but it was the stepping stone I used to get into it and now I have various information sources for new ones as they come up. Some of them are still ongoing too; [List of M&A 1](https://i.ibb.co/4fNWkXv/received-545464927626023.jpg) [List of M&A 2](https://i.ibb.co/gtDPgxL/received-730844524896529.jpg) M&A's tend to follow a predictable pattern, I seem to have a knack for picking the ones that succeed, or getting out profitably before it fails. SIMO is an example of one that failed, but I made good money. I watched them for most of late 2022, and 2023. Entered a position in early July of 2023 around $55 and on July 26th news dropped of chinese approval, it rocketed up to $95ish, and I was out. Few hours later MXL released a statement cancelling the acquisition and it tanked in the same day. You need to look at the Candle Charts to even see that it went up to the 90's that day in July. Activision Blizzard was another one I made good money on (A few times actually, it'd pop on news, I'd sell, it'd consolidate, and rebuy...etc). Black Knight was another. There are more, I'm only taking examples from the two lists above. Options are how you end up with really good return percentages on them. I'll generally give some pretty good leeway with expiry versus when the companies plan on closing the deal. At this particular moment I have a small position with SAVE at an average price of $18/share. If the acquisition happens, I'll be given $31/share, or 72% I'm waiting on entry into IRBT. I personally want in under $35, and have been waiting quite a while...as it hasnt done that since May, except for yesterday, for the first time, where it dipped almost down to $34.00 even, but crawled out to close around 35.50. Now its up in the $37s. I'm not worried. I expect I'll still be in below $35 before the deal closes. Deal is to give them $51.25/share. so if I do enter at $35, or below, I stand to make 46% or more.
What re your thoughts on MXL? They had lots of volatility recently, since their acquisition of SIMO failed.
Dude please step away for a couple of days and re-think if you really want to risk it all. I assume it takes a lot of time for you to earn 190k + I read that you - unlike many of us - do some decent trades between your regard moves. So just chill, take the stairs back up instead of losing it all. That said, tickers I'd look at right now: RIVN, still a lot of upward pressure MXL, got beaten down a bit too hard in the last days, I expect a bounce soon CVNA, fundamentals are shit, but they successfully closed their offering, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this go up quite a bit in the next days
SIMO situation is as bizarre as any I've seen. Got the China clearance and opened up 70%, and then MXL pulled out of the deal at the end of the day and down 40% after hours. Lawyers are going to make a ton of money when SIMO tries to force the merger (like Twitter/Elon).
Lmfao, don’t pull the trigger on SIMO calls yesterday, pull the trigger on MXL calls today and they announce the acquisition is ded. Fuck my life. 
I’ve traded in and out, but was waiting until today to add Sept C70s ahead of MXL’s ER where I expected a positive update. 
I somehow got filled in a $SIMO $75C exp 8/18/23 at 1.65. upside - 1818% downside - 99%. I'll hedge with $MXL calls and shares.
Alternatively SIMO calls and MXL shares is an idea.
This analysis assumes that the MXL call will stay at the same price, but if MXL goes to 30 from earnings and then maybe $35 from deal termination, the MXL call premium is basically gone too.
Tbh you're right. If I have 10 shares of SIMO at 53 and one MXL Call, if the deal falls through ill be down $144 assuming SIMO goes to 40 (could be a lesser drawdown), and the MXL call might cover the loss (or result in a gain). If the deal goes through, my reward is around $530 minus the MXL call option premium, which totals to around $300. So the risk is around \~$144 or less (ill lose if MXL doesn't move and theta crush, could be more than 144). If I get a Aug 18 SIMO 75C though, my reward if the deal goes through is around 2.8k (3k gain from SIMO call, 99% loss on MXL call.) However if the deal falls through, the call option is essentially worthless and ill have to bank on MXL rising a ton to cover my loss. The risk in that scenario is around \~the entire SIMO call premium, and more if my MXL call gets theta crushed. I guess the reason I'm holding shares is that I am more risk-averse to the cyclicity of the semiconductor sector, and less affected by theta and potentially bad earnings coming up. I don't know whether or not the deal can be extended again after the second extension date (I think it was August 7th, but if certain requirements are met it can be extended by 10 days.) This could pose another risk to holding SIMO calls.
[Three cheers for five years](https://i.imgur.com/CSc3MXL.jpg)
NVDA: Too late. Priced in already. TSMC: Way too much geopolitical risk. ASML: Too hard a limit on the quantities they can produce. Making ultra-precise instruments with a workforce of Ph.D's and engineers is cool, but if your machines get more popular you can only sell to whomever the US gov has blessed. Intel has been trying to stop their slipping lately, I think AMD's server strategy and ease of installation is going to keep paying off. Rumors are Intel loses a major client if they are late in their next server launch, and guess what they usually do when it comes to time management? If you're desperate to experiment and not willing to let the wife wear a strap on, try SIMO / MXL since that's a Taiwanese semiconductor outfit getting acquired by an American. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Motion Tho it's a little weird to invest hard in SSDs imho. It's a bad time to invest in semiconductors, or the best time, I can't figure out which since the macro cycles of this industry are so utterly godless.
Max Linear- $MXL Axcelis- $ACLS AMD- $AMD Marvell- $Marvl Cloudflare- $Net
Yeah there’s a lot of solid not talked about semis out there. TXN is a really well run company. Some other interesting ones to check out: ON NXPI MXL Also a big fan of QCOM. However TXN is a really well run business. They guided down next quarter, if you’re long, it’s not much to worry about.
For sure! Thank you for always sharing oil stuff, find that market so interesting. Really stoked on the MXL purchase today. I love stuff that beats and guides up and then trades down the next day lol.
Still trying to get you to the infrastructure/industrial dark side lol. Fun fact ATKR is now up like 35% this month. Wire is doing pretty well today. Opened up a position in MXL and APH this morning.
I asked about MXL earlier, looks like they announced today as well. [https://quantisnow.com/insight/3575182](https://quantisnow.com/insight/3575182) Record net revenue of $285.7 million, up 2% sequentially and up 24% year-over-year Record GAAP gross profit of $167.5 million and non-GAAP gross profit of $177.1 million, with GAAP gross margin of 58.6% and non-GAAP gross margin of 62.0% Connectivity revenue, led by our Wi-Fi product offering, delivered $83 million, up 46% sequentially and 118% YoY Going to open a position now! It's up 5% in the AH's
Anyone here a holder of MXL? Started looking into them today. Seems to be an interesting chip play with some infrastructure mixed in there and really cheap right now.
You've got my attention, MXL looks great.
Long 100 lots SIMO Short 38 lots MXL Long MXL leaps
The MXL purchase should put a floor in the stock, though the current market environment is so risk off that the spreads to the deal are ridiculous. The deal won't actually close until 2023, so whenever the market turns the spread between SIMO and the intrinsic value of the offer should tighten. **Formula for Buyout Value** Intrinsic Value = \[cash\] + \[stock offer x current acquirer stock price\] **SIMO Example** MXL offer for SIMO was $93.54 cash and 0.388 MXL stock per share of SIMO. So MXL offer Intrinsic Value = 93.54 + \[0.388 x $40\*\] = *109.06* \*stock price as of writing on 5/18
MXL 
MXL share are down a lot? Concerned?
Absolutely. I want to wait a few days to see if it converges toward the intrinsic value of the deal ($93.54 cash + \[0.388 x MXL share price\]). This would be the max proceeds from the deal, but merger-arb funds will likely tighten up spreads toward that value while applying a discount for probability the deal falls through. In other words, with it here down at 95.65, the intrinsic value assumes that MXL is trading at \~5.50... ofc it's actually trading at 43.
MaxLinear (MXL) buying Silicon Motion (SIMO) for $114.34 consideration, cash & stock deal. $93.54 cash, 0.388 shares in combined entity. This comes in slightly below my high range of 15x Fwd EPS (\~$120) but well above my low range of $100-105. Congrats everyone!
ASML at a decent P/E. I’ll take under 30. NVDA, AMD at more attractive levels, though I probably should’ve snagged AMD at 80 the other day. Kicking myself for not doing so. I’m looking at a couple small caps like SITIM and MXL to come down as well.
Dude- zoom already has multiple competitors including Microsoft and Salesforce. TDOC can’t be monitized enough to even pay for marketing. These are not innovations that will take over the world. STEM EXTO RKLB ASTS AMBA MXL now those stocks are unique
What's your take on MXL. I bought in last week
Watching $MVIS, $MXL, $WPRT and $MARA.