OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Mentions (24Hr)
125.00% Today
Reddit Posts
OXY FEB 02 CALLS, They Didn't Believe In Us YOLO!!!
Why does Buffet keep buying OXY? The stock hasn’t gone anywhere in years. Is this a play on carbon capture?
Buffet Bringing $OXY Into The Promised Land
Occidental OXY, W&T WTI, and Talos Energy TALOS Oil Spill
Oil Volatility Amid Middle East Tensions: My OXY Options Strategy
Growing MiddleEast Problems + War - Stocks to buy/ Stocks to short and why
Can anyone explain how I can calculate profits for OXY warrants?
OXY buys back some of Warren Buffett, BRK PS THIS IS WHAT WALLY WEITZ loves to also do.
W.Buffet & Vanguard added millions more to $OXY
Buy PUTS on $OXY, my brother just bough $OXY stocks!👋👋
Insider Trading Weekly Update #041: Buffett Cannot Get Enough $OXY, Royalty Pharma CEO Adds $4.8M | Insider Trading Recap
Insider Trading Weekly Update #040: Buffett Adds 9-Figures to $OXY Stake, $LAZR CEO Buys $21M Over 2 Days | Insider Trading Recap
How do we feel about going long on oil?!? BP,XOM, CVX, SHEL maybe even OXY
Insider Trading Weekly Update #039: Buffet Adds $125M to $OXY Stake, Fred Ehrsam Adds $50M to Coinbase Stake | Insider Trading Recap
Stocks moving in after-hours: Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A), Beam Therapeutics Inc($BEEM), Tesla ($TSLA).
Occidental Petroleum Redeems 6.5% of Preferred Stock Held by Berkshire Hathaway: the mechanics of this redemption
$OXY occidental, petroleum, buy, sell, hold. What would you do.
Rip speculative Oxy calls and potentially share price on Monday
Warren Buffet & Berk bought $217mill of OXY (Occidental Petroleum) from March 23-27. I think the stock symbol is enough of a reason why.
Insider Trading Weekly Update #031: A(nother) Buffett of Oil | Financial Sector Insiders Buy Bank Shares in Droves | Insider Trading Recap
Insider Trading Weekly Update #031: A(nother) Buffett of Oil | Financial Sector Insiders Buy Bank Shares in Droves | Insider Trading Recap
2023-03-16 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Insider Trading Weekly Update #030: Billions Into Biotech, Billionaires Buy More Oil | Insider Trading Recap
Occidental sees U.S. oil production falling short of government forecast (NYSE:OXY)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)🚀
Occidental edges lower after missing on Q4 earnings, revenues (NYSE:OXY)
OXY gonna rip this year to $100 when they bring back the dividend?
Oil stocks continue to rally even as oil prices go down
Why buy OXY stock when you can get warrants?
For a non-shitpost. Where would you put $15k?
💰💰💰Good morning! #premarket #watchlist 01/19 $XRTX -Announces Positive Topline Results from XRX-OXY-101 Clinical Trial (+64%), $APGN -Apexigen Announces New Phase 2 Data Evaluating Sotigalimab(+36%), $GNS -Genius Group names ex-FBI official to head task force to investigate illegal trading (+22%)
Paramount Global (PARA) as a long term buy and maybe short squeeze candidate
Questions: Roth IRA, 401k, stocks, index funds
MMTLP - 7 trade days left before it spins out to NBH and no longer tradable - don’t miss the launch
99 problems and Russia ain’t 1. $99k in OXY for the swing to new annual highs
Commodity prices as recession leading indicators
F13 Q3 Update: Berkshire Hathaway Just Started a Position in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Trimmed Activision (ATVI)
oil will drive higher? CVX calls $190 Nov 18 2022. (serious DD) (not a meme) (GTFIH - Get the fooork in here) 💰💰💰 🚀🚀🚀
How I’m Getting Rich Trading In This Bear Market
How I’m Getting Rich Trading In This Bear Market
How I’m Getting Rich Trading In This Bear Market
How I’m Getting Rich Trading In This Bear Market
How I’m Getting Rich Trading In This Bear Market
How can a public company go private when there are still shares out there?
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is up 15% so far this month despite the decision of OPEC to cut oil production earlier this month. Do you think OXY will reach $77 or above by Oct. 31?
2022-10-24 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
$OXY Calendar . BOTH an earnings and Midterm elections play at $195
$OXY Calendar . BOTH an earnings and Midterm elections play at $195
6 high-risk, high-reward stock bets with upside & 5 stock picks for the long-term: ($PINS $CRWD $EQT $UNH $ZS $VAL $OXY $ASND $AMT $BTU) DD
2022-10-07 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
OXY.. what do you get when you have one of the most shorted stocks in the world, plus a global economic event and investments from one of the most successful investors in history (Mr. Warren Buffet) ?
OPEC+ cutting oil production by 2 million barrels/day & here is WHAT TO DO
When will you ape regards start following the f*cking silverback? Another OXY purchase...
Mentions
I think OXY is a buy here.
Maybe those OXY 65/80 Bull spreads weren't the best idea after all
i closed the XOM OXY and VG calls i bought last week at 10:30 this morning for around 70% profit, so at least i got that going for me
but /u/ub3rm3nsch kept telling us to only buy back below his S&P 500 sell price below 20% ATH and we will make huge bank on OXY calls!
I'm not an experienced trader by any means, I don't read charts or involve myself with LAME BEHAVIOR, but instead I deeply involve myself in human psychology, incentive structures and history instead because I'm unironically autistic like the rest of you tards (except the ones of you who larp). Built a whole portfolio around the thesis that this war escalates while the rest of you keep buying peace dips like goldfish with 15 second memory. OXY up 26%. Bought before the war. Turns out watching troop buildups is pretty useful. CF Industries. The play nobody is talking about. 30% of global fertilizer goes through Hormuz. Strait closed. It's planting season. There's no strategic fertilizer reserve. That damage is done. Your grocery bill is going up into 2027 and no peace deal fixes it. Equinor. If Houthis close Bab al-Mandeb too then Europe loses both shipping routes and Norway becomes their entire energy supply. Already happening. Leonardo. Europe rearming. NATO 5% GDP. Germany dropping €500B. US munitions depleted. This doesn't reverse on a ceasefire. Gold. Because obviously. "MUUHHHH the peace deal!" Yeah. 749 insiders sold $19B in stock this month. Zero buys. Kept only oil. Someone dumped $580M in oil futures 15 minutes before Trump's last peace announcement. The TACO trade. Trump Always Chickens Out. But sure, this time the deal is real. Just like the last four deadlines were real. CNN says a deal is expected tonight and Trump said a deal was made WITH PAKISTAN(?!). The IRGC says all restraint has been removed and they'll deprive America of oil for years. I know which one I'm believing. Sources for it included here: [https://kenoma.substack.com/p/the-biggest-heist-in-history-is-happening](https://kenoma.substack.com/p/the-biggest-heist-in-history-is-happening)
So randomly I also bought really cheap deep OTM puts on OXY last week 4/10 DTE at 59 strike price, 10 contracts. At close they were worth like .25 cents each. Wonder what % gain I’ll be looking at in the morning on those if the dump holds..it’s legit down like 10% rn
i urge everyone. buy OXY right now!
now is a good time to buy OXY and oil. flash crash as anticipated. expect it to reach all time highs by next week
Thanks for confirming my XOM and OXY calls will print, you’re real af
we're getting a ceasefire (it'll eventually be broken, so who cares). i urge everyone to buy more oil and OXY stock tomorrow. I expect oil to explode by monday
Anyone know why OXY stock is dropping and not rising if oil keeps going up?
LMT, chevron, OXY, yeah there will be green candles
there could be a flash crash in oil due to a fake ceasefire. but i would def buy more OXY as soon as tmrw; i see it going up between 5 and 10% over the next 2 weeks
oil is not done climbing. its following the same chart as google. expected to peak within the next 2 weeks. not is a good time to buy OXY
I literally had my two $100 call picks for the day, long OXY or 1WTE UNH… guess which one I went for… guess which one is worth $1500 right now
will a TACO Tuesday and complete de-escalation drive up OXY price? yeah I fricked up
Damn, OXY about to turn green
OXY is just profit taking, as Brent is pretty high rn. Nvidia is because they know the dump is coming, after all see how it pumps 1% in 1/4volume just to increase artificially so they dump it on bagholders. Check Vix, did not go below 23 any day of this week or even previous despite all green days. If you are bullish deserves to be cooked with all data available there is
I have cash, OXY calls and old shares and LEAPS not related. Actually, my Microsoft shares would stand to gain. Are you suggesting, though, that the actual facts shouldn't be shared?
HEY HOW COME MY USO and OXY stock PRICE DIDNT MOON!!
Buffet bought OXY stock so I bought it and sat on it at $45 for months and it was stuck between $43-46. Eventually I got tired and sold it. Now it is $63!
Based Buffett with the OXY call 15 months early
CF (CF Industries) COP (ConocoPhillips) DHT (DHT Holdings) FRO (Frontline Plc) GLNG (Golar LNG Ltd) INSW (International Seaways) LNG (Cheniere Energy) OXY (Occidental Petroleum) TNK (Teekay Tankers) VET (Vermilion Energy)
Getting ahead of the cycle is what I try to do and see you getting at OP, thoughtful. I think recession is just a quarter or two away (will show up partially in this next quarter, fully in the following on earnings calls). I think utilities have already started their move… What do you think about this? I think housing and adjacent companies are bottoming and have been beaten down…. Ex- I stopped buying OXY last June and that trade just played out…. Very well. If I want to get ahead of the market, I get into real estate and adjacent asset classes now. Wait 8 months and the market will be starting to price in rate cuts (1 year out). I may miss an inflationary bump to consumer staples…. Getting into housing could be a more profitable move. DCA into the RH? Just thinking. Like the foresight regardless OP. 👍
Going to add my 10 shares of OXY on my dating profile
My play is to buy BRK-B when I feel like shit has hit the fan, of which OXY is a part of.
2 decades is probably too long. 3-5 years is probably the the duration of an optimal hold. OXY
For pure gas plays I tend to invest in quality leaders like EQT. They are not cheap tho unfortunately. If you want an underdog have a look at Harbour Energy Plc, great gas assets in NorthSea and super low lifting costs in the british/norwegian coast shelf. They recently acquired longlife oil assets from LLOG in the Gulf of Mexico so they have assets in multiple markets opening arbitrage options. FCF will be insane. Coterra is a nice mixed play in my opinion. They will merge with Devon and have a decent amount of gas in their future portfolio. Long term LNG deals with UK linked to TTF pricing. Personally i hold CVX, DVN, EOG and OXY.
my vehicle is OXY. in my view, they are a leveraged oil bet, without the risk of me getting liquidated :)
My personal favorite is Equinor (Norway) but it's seen quite the appreciation this year. I also have holdings in Vista (Argentina) and CNQ (Canada). Buffett's been long OXY (Permian Basin), I believe.
And Berkshire has their own private oil company too. If they keep buying OXY they just roll it into that.
Looking at historical prices, during the roughly 9-year period from early 2000 to end 2008, the total gains for some of these companies were: • ~614% (adj close Jan-00: 4.87, Dec-08: 34.76) for OXY • ~144% (adj close Jan-00: 17.14, Dec-08: 41.80) for XOM • ~135% (adj close Jan-00: 15.72, Dec-08: 36.89) for CVX • ~25% (adj close Jan-00: 17.40, Dec-08: 21.75) for SHEL These are still way off from your numbers. The large variances in performance also suggest that investing blindly in oil companies does not work and instead you'd have to invest in good companies that happen to be dealing with oil. Back then, you'd have made a healthy 24.4% YoY gain with OXY or a pretty lackluster 2.5% YoY gain with SHEL.
Looking at the charts, during the 9-year period from early 2000 to end 2008, the gain was around: • ~614% (adj close Jan-00: 4.87, Dec-08: 34.76) for OXY • ~144% (adj close Jan-00: 17.14, Dec-08: 41.80) for XOM • ~135% (adj close Jan-00: 15.72, Dec-08: 36.89) for CVX • ~25% (adj close Jan-00: 17.40, Dec-08: 21.75) for SHEL These are still way off from your numbers. The large variances in gains also suggest that investing blindly in oil companies does not work and instead you'd have to invest in good companies that happens to be dealing with oil. Back then, you'd have made a healthy 24.4% YoY gain with OXY or a pretty lackluster 2.5% YoY gain with SHEL.
Um...$OXY is up \~400% ALL TIME, and you think it will go up 1000-3000%? I doubt it.
I loaded up on NTR, IPI, CF, OXY, BP, SHEL, BPR, VG
I find it really weird on Friday that we were down like -1.5% then when the market open we just pump hard. What the most weird thing is oil stock like OXY/XOM they both go down while oil keep pumping 🤔 Wouldn't surprise me we somehow pump again money ever if we got very bad news on the weekend.
Long OXY calls then sold for 25% that turned out to be + 400% at expo. Long SPY calls sold for +40% turns out to be +1000% at expo. How stop MADE 0 dollars. Port almost recover How stop Please Help
I think you might be missing something key here. Both of you are right and wrong at the same time. Value investing is both picking companies with rock solid balance sheets that you would hold forever and also understanding and reacting at the portfolio level to macro trends and realities. Buffett is 100% a long term value investor and he also makes good reads and reacts to the macro environment. Just look at the cash he is sitting on. Did he sell everything then short all his previous positions, no. He’s still mostly invested he’s diversified but he also knows there is uncertainty ahead and has the ability to cash in on that later without missing out on the very near term reality that markets might still be on the up for a bit. He didn’t short the war in Iran he took a massive position in OXY Petroleum years ago to hedge against energy volatility in the Middle East. Don’t be so wedded to buy and hold forever that you miss the opportunity to be macro-informed.
I'm 61 and just retired. I sold the bulk of my stock in my IRA two weeks ago, and, so far, I'm glad I did. CD rates are pretty good (I've put some money into 1-month CDs at around 3.9%). I also bought some energy stocks (CVX, OXY, SLB) as I anticipate that those companies will benefit from high oil prices (margins for domestic crude will increase, leading to more domestic production). I think the safest bet right now is that crude oil prices are going to be very high for the foreseeable future. One sign that the Trump administration is preparing for high oil prices is that the EPA just issued an "emergency waiver" of prohibition against marketing 15% ethanol gas during the summer months. Typically, there's a shift from high reid vapor pressure fuels (winter blend fuels) to low RVP fuels in the summer. There's no reason for the EPA's "emergency waiver" of this requirement but to try to lower gas prices and boost corn prices for American farmers. That's about as good a sign as any that the "government insiders" know that crude prices are going through the roof. High oil prices are going to weigh heavily on every segment of the economy; but the pain will be a bit delayed while countries burn through their strategic oil reserves, and all the "cheap" crude that was purchased before the war works its way through the system. I think it's also a safe bet that there is no "clean exit" for the US from the Iran war. While I'm not placing any bets on ground troops going into Iran, I think the probability of that happening is high. If it happens, I think the stock market will tank. I'm sitting on the sidelines with cash for the time being.
Does anyone know why $USO was up so much today but stocks like $XOM and $OXY were down?
I’m balls deep in OXY so I’m good
WTI is up like crazy but wo weird that OXY and XOM is down
Glad I sold all my OXY calls 10 minutes in today and have a cash restricted account so I can't fuck up those gains on this wild ass day. I do have $500 to yolo though any suggestions?
I have been selling into those days when OXY has the upward mojo. So far, I have sold about 20 percent of my holding, with with small trades that range from 59 - 65.xx. We know that during the Ukrainian invasion, OXY topped out from the post Anadarko fangdango in the mid 70s. My assumption is that while history won't repeat, it may well rhyme ... BUT I think the climb will be slower and the price level more sustainable vs the Ukraine moment. Plus new CEO on the horizon. Finally, I will likely sell all my stock during the next few weeks, but keep the warrants until further notice
Wtf is this price action on OXY
Already sold all my SPY puts and OXY calls I loaded up on yesterday. Imagine buy calls yesterday LMFAO
People are aware, not just in this sub. The price of everything that travels through the strait will skyrocket and yes a lot of companies will eat it but they have already likely hedged enough against this probability. The futures market exists to allow companies, farmers etc…to either hedge or get paid in advance for a product to be delivered later. Long $OXY, $XOM, $XOMO (weekly pay YieldMax ETF based on $XOM and $MOS (Brazilian fertilizer with upside in rare earth mining). Thesis for $XOM and $XOMO is rising oil prices will offset disruptions and their LNG plant in Wyoming produces ~20% of helium in the world while Qatar LNG plant had 30% of supply taken off-line and thats used in etching in semiconductors. Most exposed are TSM and SK Hynix and Samsung in memory since 65% of their helium comes from the Middle East. I was considering shorting semis and still might. $OXY has ~15% of exposure to the Middle East but its concentration in US shale will give it room to go vertical soon. $MOS is simply a Brazilian fertiliser play whose previous earnings were due to one time costs and sulphur issues but with ~30% of fertiliser passing through the Strait, the price will skyrocket and its low valuation trading at a PE of about ~14 compared to industry average of 19 it seemed like a good choice since it has zero exposure to the Middle East. Also, joint venture with a mining company may yield huge dividends in rare earth metals by 2030 meaning that it may be a candidate for a longer term hold as a hedge since China currently does almost all rare earth minerals mining and building out mining and processing for these materials. Without them no EVs, semiconductor shortage, etc…
Same. Wish I’d gotten USO. I did add OXY
Pre-market, Most of my holdings are down except WMMVY, KDP, EP, SM, CRGY and I added some OXY last night that’s up a little bit. I usually buy and hold so we’ll have to see what happens over the weekend and Friday (closed market). I suspect a Friday news dump on this war. What about you?
Appreciate the post OP. Global instability is a headwind and I think valuations were inflated as well. Like to hear more of your thoughts. Thanks I went into cash / took profit the moment we entered the Middle East conflict (except for a heavy position in OXY., 42$ average and sold out of that recently). Sold a highly speculative minor loser as well. I expect a few quarters of earnings misses due to margin constriction (increase in oil prices = higher cost of moving / shipping / trucking = higher cost of everything). Added 25% of capital and still adding to a position in BDJ, a CEF (closed end fund) that pays a 0.0619 / share every month. +8% yearly but compounds monthly. Have it set on drip (divy reinvest). Share price is less volatile, but a decrease in share price is positive. Dividend buys more shares every month as share price decreases. Divy stays 0.0619 / share. Holding cash to buy my favorite stocks at a discount. I also expect a crypto run back to ATH in the next 2 years. Aware of the 4 year cycle, so adding but cautiously. Appreciate the thoughts, thanks for the perspective.
Im going to read the comments for anyone who says no. Not sure how you could miss it…. We say it in the previous term, it ls like we had the playbook… I have been investing and trading based on the blatant manipulation since the election. I decided it would be stupid to sit back and watch others profit off of the manipulation. It’s not even hard to see and anticipate the next moves. it’s blatant and lacks any sort of subtlety. The crypto rip was telegraphed. If you didn’t see that coming…. Just hope you took profit rather than sit on the roller coaster and watch profit drift away. The general / overall inflation in traditional stock market valuations should have been obvious as well. I dropped 10k $ back into the market right after liberation day. Took profit and went into cash when the US entered the Middle East conflict. Kept my heavy position in OXY till it hit my profit target. What’s next? The increase in oil prices will increase shipping cost which creates a global inflationary environment. As this trickles into quarterly reports, / cuts into margins of almost every asset class, companies will hit the low end or outright miss analyst projections…. I expect a further downside correction… 5-10% from whalers we are now. A slow drip… As the traditional market stagnates and declines, I expect crypto to break out again. Not sayin g the 4 year Bitcoin cycle will be broken. That will probably happen, but institutional investment may moderate or cut it short. I’m positioning myself for that. Dca into crypto and crypto adjacent stocks. 20% cash to buy if the 4 year cycle plays out. Looking for valuations to deflate in blue chips and take advantage of it. I almost 100% sure there is another crypto bull run coming before the next presidential election…. Sometime in the next 2 years I expect bitcoin to test ATH (along with the rest of the crypto market). That’s how I’m playing it…
Full ported today: OXY, BP, SHEL, PBR, DVN, VG, NEXT, BATL, TALO
One thing that also clear is that he bought OXY bonds so that’s all anyone need to know
Just need OXY to hit 80 and I'm good
Ehhh, prolly just gonna buy a few shares of OXY today.
Loaded up on SHEL and OXY
I can’t wait to buy this dip on OXY in a little bit. Sold at $66.98 yesterday and it’s down 4% this AM.
They are gonna dump and funnel back into USO, OXY, VLO, CVX, BP, SHEL
Why OXY calls and not USO?
Look at how he turned his purchase of OXY and get back to me
Save my OXY calls. Roll in strike package Bravo, put boots on the ground, go freedom that oil.
Can we go back to pumping OXY please - oil is still $100 a barrel..
This take lines up pretty closely with what I’ve been trading on for the last three weeks. Positions: OXY Jun $65 calls (7), OXY Jun $70 calls (3), XOM Jun $180 calls (3). Started with about $4,700 deployed across all entries. Account is sitting around $25k with $1,200+ already realized from trimming into strength along the way. The pattern has been consistent. Trump posts about progress on Truth Social, oil dips, Iran denies within hours, oil recovers. I’ve sold into the pumps at progressively higher prices ($4.50, $5.58, $6.54) and bought back on the dips. Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf has literally been posting on social media calling Trump’s posts “fake news used to manipulate financial and oil markets” and telling people to do the opposite. He’s been right every time. Today was the biggest test. Pezeshkian said Iran was “prepared to end the war” and OXY fell from $67.50 to $63 in about 30 minutes. I added 4 more contracts between $4.00 and $4.25 while it was dropping. An hour later Iran’s FM confirmed they’re not negotiating. Recovered most of the drop by close. The detail people missed today: while the market was celebrating ceasefire hopes, Iran’s parliament quietly approved formal toll legislation for the Strait of Hormuz. You don’t codify toll laws if you’re planning to hand the waterway back unconditionally. Futures curve tells the same story. June delivery is at $100, doesn’t get to the $80s until August, and doesn’t see $70 until 2031. Even if the war ends tomorrow, the supply disruption takes months to unwind. Qatar said Ras Laffan alone needs years to fully repair. 79 days left on all my contracts. Thesis is intact.
Any chance Warren bagged his OXY followers in that breakout and sold the top?
They bought that OXY dip real fast
Yesterday, Iran's President stated that Iran remains open to ending the war **IF IRAN'S TERMS ARE MET**, and stated that any decision to end the war with the US and Israel must "guarantee the security and interests of the Iranian people". Today, western financial publications seem to have picked up and run with the story of "Iran President says ending the war". This was on the back of Trump saying he wants to wind down the war last night. Cue the macro oil sell off and the macro S&P gain. And yet, I remain a bear. Looking past the headlines: * Hormuz remains shut. * Iran and the US have irreconcilable negotiating positions. Iran wants regional security guarantees - which likely include a withdrawal of US military assets from the region, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz, and the right to develop nuclear energy. The US wants exactly the opposite. * US troop and equipment build ups in the region remain at all time highs. * The US and Israel continued bombing Iran. Today. * Iran has continued bombing targets in the Gulf, and has declared now US university and economic targets to be in scope for their bombing. None of this leads me to believe that the daily ~ 10,000,000 BPD oil shortfall is anywhere close to being alleviated, and we have already crossed the Rubicon for second and third order economic affects. From the US side, it strikes me as posturing to get European and Gulf allies to fund and contribute to the War. It also is a stated strategy of Trump not to have this viewed as a War by Congress, else he would need a Declaration of War. From the Iranian side, their strategy of Deterrence incentivizes max economic pain on the US, Israel and the West, and they are not eager to give away their most valuable piece of negotiating leverage without concessions by the US. To do so would be to invite overthrow by a negotiating partner that has betrayed them twice and killed their leadership. The headline swings are one of the biggest reasons I remain in mostly in cash (no shorts), and OXY calls. You can be medium term right, and short term wrong. However, as I have said many times on this subreddit, headlines and tweets can't paper over the supply shortfall in the physical oil markets forever. I used today to add to my OXY positions, and I personally am waiting for a 20% off the high S&P before re-entering.
Yesterday, Iran's President stated that Iran remains open to ending the war **IF IRAN'S TERMS ARE MET**, and stated that any decision to end the war with the US and Israel must "guarantee the security and interests of the Iranian people". Today, western financial publications seem to have picked up and run with the story of "Iran President says ending the war". This was on the back of Trump saying he wants to wind down the war last night. Cue the macro oil sell off and the macro S&P gain. And yet, I remain a bear. Looking past the headlines: * Hormuz remains shut. * Iran and the US have irreconcilable negotiating positions. Iran wants regional security guarantees - which likely include a withdrawal of US military assets from the region, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz, and the right to develop nuclear energy. The US wants exactly the opposite. * US troop and equipment build ups in the region remain at all time highs. * The US and Israel continued bombing Iran. Today. * Iran has continued bombing targets in the Gulf, and has declared now US university and economic targets to be in scope for their bombing. None of this leads me to believe that the daily ~ 10,000,000 BPD oil shortfall is anywhere close to being alleviated, and we have already crossed the Rubicon for second and third order economic affects. From the US side, it strikes me as posturing to get European and Gulf allies to fund and contribute to the War. It also is a stated strategy of Trump not to have this viewed as a War by Congress, else he would need a Declaration of War. From the Iranian side, their strategy of Deterrence incentivizes max economic pain on the US, Israel and the West, and they are not eager to give away their most valuable piece of negotiating leverage without concessions by the US. To do so would be to invite overthrow by a negotiating partner that has betrayed them twice and killed their leadership. The headline swings are one of the biggest reasons I remain in mostly in cash (no shorts), and OXY calls. You can be medium term right, and short term wrong. However, as I have said many times on this subreddit, headlines and tweets can't paper over the supply shortfall in the physical oil markets forever. I used today to add to my OXY positions, and I personally am waiting for a 20% off the high S&P before re-entering.
OXY calls and SPY puts is the way
OXY gang going at it 1-2%+ everyday.
Fuck it — Full port OXY and PBR
The Hormuz thesis is solid and most people are definitely underpricing the duration of this disruption. But the 2022 Russia/Ukraine parallel cuts both ways. Yes, equities slid, but crude peaked around $130 and settled back to $80-90 within months because supply rerouting happened faster than expected. The Gulf situation is worse structurally, but US shale producers are already ramping permits. The part I'd push back on is "each day lowers indices." Oil shocks historically front-load the equity damage. The 1973 embargo saw most of the S&P drawdown in the first 3 months, then a slow grind, not a continuous slide. If you're holding cash waiting for a lower rebuy, the risk is that the bottom happens on a headline you can't react to fast enough. Agree on the OXY calls though. If you're going to be bullish on anything in this environment, upstream producers with low breakeven costs are the obvious play.
I think the overall market has another 5-10% correction to price in the macro environment (extended war and increase in fuel costs impacting margins) and deflate inflated valuations. If you are selling now, I think you may be late and may be selling closer to the bottom than the top. I took profit and actualized 1 small loser about a week after the US involvement in the war. Global instability is a headwind. Held onto a heavy OXY position bought between 38-44 a share for a bit longer… 40$ a barrel is below Saudi production cost… 60 is break even. Hate that war made that trade play out… Strategic positioning… Increased and adding to a position in a CEF (closed end fund- BDJ) that pays a 0.0619 dividend per share per month set on drip (dividend reinvest). As share price declines, the dividend buys more shares. Dividend is fixed, so share price decline is a positive (cheaper share price = more shares every month). Have 20% cash position to buy my favorite blue chips at a discount. While the war is the main catalyst, certain areas of the market were overbought / inflated and due for a correction. Looking to dca into NVDA and Amazon. Just my opinion… If you sell now, I think you are reacting late. When retail get to the point of selling to preserve capital (fear) it is a signal we are closer to the bottom than the top. If you don’t need the money, just sit on it. Certain asset classes will see the impact of increased energy prices / shipping costs in the next two quarters. Consumer non discretionary will be impacted by decreased margins due to increased cost of transport (increased oil prices) and targets will miss. All companies will see margin compression. Earnings will miss or hit low end of targets. I think we are entering an inflationary environment. 6-9 months unless the Middle East conflict ends tomorrow. Then only 2 quarters / 4-6 months. I also think capital will move into crypto and crypto adjacent companies. NFA and I don’t know shiz. Just sharing a perspective i haven’t seen anyone posting about. Good luck 🍀 All that said, the entire market could crash tomorrow and never recover…. But that bet has never worked out for anyone ever in the long term.
Jeez only like a 2 dollar discount on OXY
Sorry to ask such a clear "I want to gamble but I don't know what I'm doing" question. If I hypothetically wanted to go long on oil, what does it make the most sense going into. I.e., BNO, USO, or a specific stock like OXY or something else. I really have no idea what make one better or safer than the other, I just know they're all oil.
I sold the rest of my OXY before market close for a cool 10K profit.
Yeah that’s my thesis. The one piece I don’t know how to factor in is, if we drawdown further market-wide, will feet and oil do so too. And how much: That goes for things like OXY, LNG, XLE, XLU, ET, etc.. not sure if I should expect them To get smacked this week or if they’ll trade sideways a bit and then rip harder.
Because it is unusual for oil companies to not follow the direction of oil futures. I've been trading these since before this war even began. Certain ones have more correlation (like OXY) and some less (XOM, CVX) but there's absolutely no fucking reason they should be red or barely green today after pumping 2-3% on open
It would help me because I have OXY calls and SPY puts
Finally began selling OXY shares and moving VOO. OXY was 21% of my portfolio before repositioning
Just need $OXY to follow now
I’ve been riding OXY for several weeks
Can we short tf out of CVX XOM OXY bring all these fks down for ONE week ?
damnit OXY pull back to december lows, I'm so tilted over having missed this entry
What date OXY calls so I can do the same??
hey! if you're looking at E&P stocks, check out something like OXY or CVX. with crude prices on the rise and those supply risks, they could really benefit. also, don’t sleep on smaller players like PXD, they got some solid potential. just keep an eye on those headlines, things are kinda wild right now. what’s your timeframe for holding?
I bought 500 shares of OXY at the old price and sold them at a 1% loss right before it went up :\\ With all this market volatility, I really should’ve waited another week :'(
I bought 500 shares of OXY at the old price and sold them at a 1% loss right before it went up :\\ With all this market volatility, I really should’ve waited another week :'(
I bought 500 shares of OXY at the old price and ended up selling at a loss right before it went up 1% :\\ With all this market volatility, I really should’ve waited another week :'(