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SPY 0DTE after PMI: was this move mostly price, gamma or IV expansion?
10-year yield hits highest since January 2025 as higher oil prices stoke inflation worries
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It's hardware fuse lock. It's like saying you will take an Apple Silicon M from a Macbook, Mini, Studio and making your own board for it and selling these chips that are pennies in the market since they are paper weight without the matched PMI and firmware in aftermarket. You can't.
Preview for this next week, Skew is pretty evenly distributed, with 7790 being an upside cap and 7550 being the downside floor. 7650 still remains the point of control for this week. A shift from last weeks bearish positioning to neutral. Above 7650 into Tuesday close sets up a high probability for further upside into weeks end. Vol has come out post fomc/opex with little room below to sustain large upside. Vix currently at 14.8 with about 1 vol point left to contract. Breadth is horrendous with sp500 stocks above 20dma at 19% 50dma at 28% and 200dma at 50% Dispersion has bounced off the cycle lows, and putting all of these together, the highest probability for this week is Dispersion expansion with single stock vol rising, rotations, and a fairly subdued index. SPX likely trades between 7600-7700 for the week with no sustained multi day trends. A fairly quiet week for macro compared to last, we have a few bond auctions every day but friday this week, as well as several fed member speeches. Tuesday ADP, Wednesday Trump/Xi summit, and PMI, thursday jobless claims.
Growth takes time, inflation will be much faster. Makes me feel like saving for a home is maybe not the best plan rn. Just go ahead and buy at the prices we have now and eat the bullet on PMI and interest.
Rough split, honestly mostly delta, but that 4-point IV jump after PMI did a lot of the heavy lifting on the speed of the move. Without the vol expansion, it would've taken way longer to get there.
I think the interesting part is that you had both delta and IV working for you at the same time. The ORB confirmation is what makes this more than just “buy calls before PMI and pray” . For 0DTE, I’d definitely check IV beforehand because a cheap-looking option can get absolutely wrecked by IV crush even when the direction is right.
Here’s the CBOE’s page on it: https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/sp-500/xsp-options/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=PMI-Retail-S&P-500-Suite---SPX/XSP-Non-Brand---US/NL/HK&utm_term=NA&utm_content=XSP-NB-EXT&gclsrc=aw.ds&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=23423593416&gclid=Cj0KCQjw--7UBhCpARIsAGJBptjGrSVsfVPvsnX2YFdz3iV5ieGzWHTEJvnbpdUjdPBmYmQt0J3lf9saAsGiEALw_wcB
US ISM Services PMI came in at 55.4, while the expectation was 54.3 and you are bearish?
🇺🇸 US ISM Services PMI came in at 55.4, while the expectation was 54.3. WTF this is very bullish, us manufacturing exapanding fast
strong services PMI makes a rate hike more likely
It's hilarious seeing this post get upvoted so hard for absolutely no reason. Are the "strong economic prospects" in the room with us right now? Surely GDP growth would be accelerating, PMI booming, and jobs numbers way rosier if "strong economic prospects" were actually propelling rates higher. Here in the real world, rates are surging because inflationary pressures are absolutely exploding, due in no small part to the Iran war and related energy crisis. Go look at charts for agricultural products, for metals, for fertilizer, for gasoline/diesel, for electricity prices, etc and they're all waaaay up this year. Apparently stagflation can be viewed as "strong economic prospects" it you're delusional enough
> yikes i hope you dont have an ARM nope, just a fixed 30yr 5.85% that i was hoping to re-fi down into the low 4's (and drop PMI on the re-fi)
Jobs Report and PMI will tank this market
rAtE hIKeS iM sErIoUs >US RETAIL SALES ADVANCE (M/M): JULY: -0.6% (EST 0.1%; PREV 0.2%) >US UNIV. OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT AUG P: 51.0 (EST 55.0; PREV 55.2) - CURRENT CONDITIONS: 51.8 (EST 54.8; PREV 54.8) >US MNI CHICAGO PMI FOR AUGUST IS 47.1, LOWER THAN ESTIMATED 57.9 AND PREVIOUS 57.6. >May jobs revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000 >June jobs revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000 >U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Loses 23,000 Jobs in July, Missing Forecasts by Wide Margin
Chicago PMI missed by 10.8 from estimates. lol
PMI: 47 vs 57 forecast - big miss, probably just cooked to justify no rate increase. . .
That PMI is terrible. No way they are raising rates in September.
Sell off for consumer sentiment report, Chicago PMI, and Warsh speech. Jim Kramer saying if you didn't sell your scalp yet, you're highly regarded!
Sell off for consumer sentiment report, Chicago PMI, and Warsh speech
PMI wants to go...just needs volume and people to let her spread her wings.
I have been holding PMI for a year… after the reverse split my average was $45 and I averaged down to 7.60 and was able to get out with profit. I almost gave up hope 😭
What’s going on with PMI
PMI is a rather new requirement.
There is a reason mortgage companies require PMI when you put less than 20% down. There’s a reason car loans require either solid credit history or down payments or both. Your statement is completely nonsensical. It’s one thong to have insurance cover a bet. It is another to be naked like this idiotic fund is.
I mean this is exactly why when we bought, we bought a place that was relatively cheap ($250k) and we hoped would appreciate enough to refi later, sinxe we live in a busy area. At the time, looking at the interest paid on our 30yr fixed was nuts, but it was doable. Got a 30yr with PMI at \~3.7%, refi'ed a couple years later to a 15yr fixed at \~1.8% and the difference was staggering. Monthly went up obviously, but not badly enough for it not to math well. The interest we're paying still hurts but it's nothing like before. Fast forward to now - everything around us is $400-600k, and 30yr fixed is approaching 7%. In this market we would be renting. So I generally agree with your observations (and this doesn't even account for other economic factors that weren't present a few years ago. E.g., I wasn't afraid of losing my job back then).
What are we thinking for today? Do we care about PMI or no? Probably not. Green day
Michael Burry is a meme. Just because he made generational money from The Big Short during the 2008 crisis, it doesn't mean he's right most of the time. He's actually wrong most of the time. A simple way to gauge the market's health is to look at the ISM PMI, which stands for the Institute for Supply Management - Purchasing Managers' Index, known as the business cycle. Macro tops in the stock market have never occured until around the top of the business cycle, which is only about halfway to the its peak. The PMI probably tops in 2027. This makes sense, since the stock market should do well in a booming business cycle, even if the economy is K-shaped like many believe. Only large companies are benefiting the most from AI. The middle class loses jobs due to AI, while Big Tech margins grow from doing more with less employees. AI CapEx will still continue to stimulate the K-shaped economy until spending slows down.
In for 1k shares on this. Also check out PMI. Just RS and the float is under 1m shares. Could squeeze violently like 10x + if it gets a little volume on the buy side.
You could catch some pull backs and make a few bucks day trading it but I’m personallly done with it leaving it behind now. PMI is what I’m heavy in right now. Tony float just needs a little buying pressure and it’s gonna go 10x. Hopefully.
# Manufacturing PMI® at 55.6% # July 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report New Orders Growing Production Growing Employment Growing Supplier Deliveries Slowing Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers’ Inventories Too Low Prices Increasing; Imports Growing; Exports Growing (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the **manufacturing sector expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month**, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest **ISM****^(®)** ***Manufacturing PMI******^(®)*** ***Report***. The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^(®) (ISM^(®)) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The Manufacturing PMI^(®) registered 55.6 percent in July, 2.3 percentage points above the June figure and the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). The overall economy continued in expansion for the 21st month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI^(®) above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index expanded for the seventh consecutive month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 56.7 percent, up 0.7 percentage point compared to June’s figure of 56 percent. The July reading of the Production Index (58.5 percent) is 6.3 percentage points higher than the 52.2 percent recorded in June and the highest figure since November 2021 (60.5 percent). The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 71.1 percent, a 1.9-percentage point decrease from June’s reading of 73 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 55 percent, up 4.5 percentage points compared to the 50.5 percent recorded in June. The Employment Index reading of 52.8 percent is up 3.1 percentage points from June’s figure of 49.7 percent, putting the index in expansion territory for the first time in 33 months,” says Spence. “The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slowing performance for the eighth month in a row after one month in ‘faster’ territory. The reading of 58.9 percent is up 1.5 percentage points from its June reading of 57.4 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^(®) PMI^(®) Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) “The Inventories Index registered 51.2 percent, down 0.2 percentage point compared to June’s reading of 51.4 percent. The Customers’ Inventories Index reading of 40.7 percent is 1.6 percentage points lower compared to the 42.3 percent recorded in June. “The New Export Orders Index returned to expansion territory with a reading of 53 percent, 4.5 percentage points higher than the 48.5 percent registered in June. The Imports Index registered 55.7 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher than June’s reading of 52.9 percent.” Spence continues, “In July, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at its fastest rate in more than four years. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI^(®), four grew faster compared to the previous month; the exception was the Inventories Index, which was down just 0.2 percentage point. [https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/july/](https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/july/)
US. ISM Manufacturing PMI hotter than expected, growth for first time in three years, this morning (at 10am on the dot).
Good Morning Everyone, “We need to talk about what happened last night....” she said. I rubbed my eyes, groggy and confused in bed. “What? The yen or the kospi?” I replied, trying to shake off my hangover. “No” She shook head, pointed to the disaster of a mess I made in my drunken stupor. Red sauce everywhere, bits of crispy meat in bed next to me. “You destroyed the kitchen last night, what the fuck happened?” she snapped. Oh yeah… I tried to make home made Korean barbeque in honor of our degenerate Korean brethren. Ironic, I’m also having financial and memory problems, but unlike the ants, I’m not getting margin called. I’ll clean later, let’s do a quick recap of what happened around the world last night. Australia and New Zealand: Both Australia’s ASX200 and New Zealand’s NZ50G are green and showing strength. The ASX closed at 9006 with both markets ending the day with a modest gain of roughly +0.6%. In Asia: (closed) Japan: Despite a coordinated intervention between the US and Japan to rescue the Yen, the Nikkei 225 is down nearly -1% along with the the TOPIX down -1.08%. China: In Shanghai, the The SSE Composite Index closed red, down -0.59% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed green on the day with a modest gain of +0.48%. In Korea: The KOSPI is once again a giant red candle, closing at -5.12%. The volatile index has been struggling to stabilize as investors are suffering from hyper leveraged investments into the uncertainty of the A.I memory trade moving forward. Europe: (open) In Germany: The DAX came out the door swinging and opened with a +1.3% gain which it has maintained. The index is looking poised to close near +1.5%. In France: The French CAC is also closing strong despite opening into some selling pressure. It is +0.66% at the time of writing. In London: The FTSE 1000 is looking weak and currently trading at \~-0.35% and currently trending down. The EURO STOXX50 index was able to manage an early trading session rally and is up +0.9% although looking at a few consecutive red candles. North America: (pre-market) All four of the major index futures are green this morning with the DOW (+0.6%), S&P500 (+0.5%), Nasdaq(+0.55%) minis rallying on the news of the 38th concept of a perimeter of a an agreement of a peace deal that was announced on Truth social. Markets are optimistic the end of this 2 week war is near. The volatility index (VIX) appears stable around 16.03 this morning. The PMI manufacturing final index will be released at 9:45am this morning and no other major economic reports are expected today in North America. The Canadian markets are closed today for a holiday. Price Checks: Bitcoin: Continuing it’s downward trend, down -1% on the day and is now down-44% in the last year. Currently trading at \~$62,800. Commodities: Crude Oil futures are down -5.67%. Gold futures are slightly down, -0.08%. Silver is slightly up +0.89%. What to watch today: The major uncertainty around tech stocks, the AI trade and the ongoing wars in the middle east and Europe are major sources of uncertainty for everyone. I’m staying defensive for the day and hoping that I can save my marriage and my portfolio by focusing on getting the bbq sauce out of the linen instead of trying to guess if the markets believe this weekend’s peace deal announcement.
“We need to talk about what happened last night....” she said. I rubbed my eyes, groggy and confused in bed. “What? The yen or the kospi?” I replied, trying to shake off my hangover. “No” She shook head, pointed to the disaster of a mess I made in my drunken stupor. Red sauce everywhere, bits of crispy meat in bed next to me. “You destroyed the kitchen last night, what the fuck happened?” she snapped. Oh yeah… I tried to make home made Korean barbeque in honor of our degenerate Korean brethren. Ironic, I’m also having financial and memory problems, but unlike the ants, I’m not getting margin called. I’ll clean later, let’s do a quick recap of what happened around the world last night. # Australia and New Zealand: Both Australia’s ASX200 and New Zealand’s NZ50G are green and showing strength. The ASX closed at 9006 with both markets ending the day with a modest gain of roughly +0.6%. [](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!opb6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2d0e22d-808b-4b69-977e-bfe0efa9b24a_485x281.png) # In Asia: (closed) Japan: Despite a coordinated intervention between the US and Japan to rescue the Yen, the Nikkei 225 is down nearly -1% along with the the TOPIX down -1.08%. China: In Shanghai, the The SSE Composite Index closed red, down -0.59% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed green on the day with a modest gain of +0.48%. In Korea: The KOSPI is once again a giant red candle, closing at -5.12%. The volatile index has been struggling to stabilize as investors are suffering from hyper leveraged investments into the uncertainty of the A.I memory trade moving forward. # Europe: (open) In Germany: The DAX came out the door swinging and opened with a +1.3% gain which it has maintained. The index is looking poised to close near +1.5%. In France: The French CAC is also closing strong despite opening into some selling pressure. It is +0.66% at the time of writing. In London: The FTSE 1000 is looking weak and currently trading at \~-0.35% and currently trending down. The EURO STOXX50 index was able to manage an early trading session rally and is up +0.9% although looking at a few consecutive red candles. # North America: (pre-market) All four of the major index futures are green this morning with the DOW (+0.6%), S&P500 (+0.5%), Nasdaq(+0.55%) minis rallying on the news of the 38th concept of a perimeter of a an agreement of a peace deal that was announced on Truth social. Markets are optimistic the end of this 2 week war is near. The volatility index (VIX) appears stable around 16.03 this morning. The PMI manufacturing final index will be released at 9:45am this morning and no other major economic reports are expected today in North America. The Canadian markets are closed today for a holiday. # Price Checks: Bitcoin: Continuing it’s downward trend, down -1% on the day and is now down-44% in the last year. Currently trading at \~$62,800. Commodities: Crude Oil futures are down -5.67%. Gold futures are slightly down, -0.08%. Silver is slightly up +0.89%. # What to watch today: The major uncertainty around tech stocks, the AI trade and the ongoing wars in the middle east and Europe are major sources of uncertainty for everyone. I’m staying defensive for the day and hoping that I can save my marriage and my portfolio by focusing on getting the bbq sauce out of the linen instead of trying to guess if the markets believe this weekend’s peace deal announcement.
I’d suggest using a spreadsheet app (like excel, numbers or googles sheets) to put together a financial payment plan. You can get reasonable estimates of interest rates, PMI, insurance, Taxes and the like - and use that to determine the right answer for you. (Also use it to calculate your 401k portfolio, including your contributions and any interest you are paying yourself) Without doing something along those lines, you’ll just be making wild guesses. Having just said that, my wild guess is that you will be better off NOT touching your 401 for a loan.
I’d suggest using a spreadsheet app (like excel, numbers or googles sheets) to put together a financial payment plan. You can get reasonable estimates of interest rates, PMI, insurance, Taxes and the like - and use that to determine the right answer for you. (Also use it to calculate your 401k portfolio, including your contributions and any interest you are paying yourself) Without doing something along those lines, you’ll just be making wild guesses. Having just said that, my wild guess is that you will be better off NOT touching your 401 for a loan.
If I remember correctly, 22% is the the percentage that they automatically remove PMI. Otherwise you can request removal after 20%.
Just FYI. Banks sometimes require equity to hit 22% before they eliminate the PMI. That might change the math between 401k loan vs no loan.
This is a great point. Your 401k loan repayments will likely be more than your PMI, plus you're missing out on the compounding interest. I'd also avoid the loan. I was just in the exact same situation. The thought of having additional 401k debt on top of my mortgage was mentally exhausting. I found a loan officer who was able to get my PMI to $125/month. 3% down, 475k loan.
On the other hand, money spent on PMI is taxed and just gone.
You insinuated historical averages for the market, not your 401k. Even with that clarification yea my 401k is up 19.55% for the 1Y but you're missing the point. You'd very naive to assume 15-20% returns on your 401k year after year long term. You shouldn't be calculating the future based on 15 or 20% regardless. Either way my answer is the same with 10% returns. Paying shorter term PMI, especially with the plan to pay towards principal and get it off sooner isn't going to make up for the lost opportunity cost of the $18k worth of investments continuing to make money
I'd rather pay an extra $2k at closing to not have PMI than $2k/year in PMI for 8-10 years, plus have to fight the mortgage company to get rid of PMI at the end of the term.
Interesting. I can’t imagine PMI being wildly expensive over the course of living at the property. Maybe $150 a month, but even so that’s not even $2k a year, which would also imply we’d have to live there for 9 years to break the 401k loan number.
I had a mortgage through them several years ago. The rate was comparable to the other companies I shopped. Maybe closing costs were slightly higher, but I saved plenty through not having PMI.
Odds are if you're carrying the PMI for only but a short-term with knocking out principal over the first couple years, it's unlikely that you'll save more money doing that. Probably better off not taking the 401k loan and just paying the PMI. Without actual the house price point numbers, it's hard to say for sure but I'd find it hard to believe that it would be worthwhile to take the loan. This is coming from someone who has taken a 401k loan for a house too in the past, so I'm not inherently against it either, but it sounds like your PMI would be very short-lived and not enough to justify the missed opportunity of the 401k loan. Average market returns are not historically 15-20% though either. No need to use misinformation to make your argument though. Even with 7-10% which is average you'd still benefit from keeping that 401k invested
Find a credit union that does mortgages without PMI. If you're eligible, Navy Federal Credit Union does this with some of all of their loans.
How much is PMI going to be before you get to 20%? Is it that much that it makes sense to rob from your retirement?
Avoiding PMI by 401k loan is acceptable, especially if loan type has an upfront mortgage insurance premium charge. You can pay back 401k loan over a shorter time period which reduces the time out of the market.
>China's economy in the second quarter expanded 4.3% from a year earlier, the slowest pace in more than three years, missing the lower end of the full-year target of 4.5% to 5%. >The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49.2 from 50.3 in June, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Friday, dropping below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Economists' median forecast had pegged PMI at 50. cnbc