Owning crypto miners is like a proxy for owning BTC. Investor looking for volatility chose these stocks because of the potential for quick gains or losses. However the rally we saw today compared to the direction of the overall market is interesting. The DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P are all relatively flat over the last 5 trading days while BTC is up 11%. I’m trying to figure out what’s going on but can’t seem to find a logical explanation anywhere.
Maxis of any kind are morons and toxic. Some people there (and here as well) believe that crypto exists in a bubble and is not affected by the macro enviorment. The same people believe that 'crypto of choice' is a hedge against inflation and that fiat is doomed. Spoiler, none of this is true. However crypto is a new asset class that will likely be looked as the S&P, DOW JONES, NASDAQ etc. In the future. Maybe not however dont think it will replace fiat in the next 20 years. Dont be delusional
Because BTC is not a short term hedge against shit. It’s a risk-on asset but over time, much like the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P, will always be up decade over decade. People expecting any single asset, or bucket of assets to react short term, in perfect sync with its long term trend, doesn’t understand markets…. Or inflation :)
so are a lot of people into crypto. Unfortunately BTC is coupled to the economy which is going into recession. Which leads to people having less disposable income to bet on risky things. people tend to pull out of riskier stocks and put their money into bellwethers. The DOW is also likely to drop, so are gas prices(though they are artificially high right now) and mortgage defaults. This isnt complex or some massive prediction. And dont even work in finance. But this isnt complex finances. It happens every recession. crypto just happens to be arround for this one.
That’s to be expected, nobody necessarily counts on a 5x or 10x from their stocks. A 2-3%move for stocks is a big deal, for crypto it’s daily volatility. When you compare stock crash today, compared to March of 2020, it really hasn’t been all that bad quite yet. For example DOW from its top to its lowest so far is a -19.53% move. Back in March of 2020 it was a -38.84% move. I think what we’ve seen so far has only been a controlled demolition. What I fear, is that come September-October, stocks will be seeing true dumpage. What this means for crypto I can only speculate.
The basic thought is that you have no idea what the price will do. Through time you will pick up at a good average price as you are naturally buying more sats or shares during bear markets where others panic sell. You may completely miss out if the ATH keeps going (say someone thought market was to hot at DOW 22k and they have been holding USD for years and they just are losing value waiting, instead of saying in decades this will be worth so much more so I should just keep buying no matter what). This leads to a better average than say buying 0.1 BTC a month because it means during peak times you may be buying 0.03 and during low prices you are picking up 0.2 naturally giving you a good average.
Very confident. Take a look at the stock market and see how APPL, NASDAQ, DOW J, S&P 500, etc have faired over the past 4 decades. Crypto has had a somewhat similar cycle to stocks, SNX even more rapidly. Besides, the crypto market has been garnering traction since it’s inception with ingenious platforms like Ethereum, Chainlink, Polkadot, Ocean Protocol, Polygon, etc. Also, take a look at how BTC has ushered in a stream of tech innovations since it’s inception.
Crypto has never seen a recession, especially one that looks to be prolonged. The DOW will end up 24k at some point. BTC will go 4-16k (hard to tell). This isn’t rocket science…speculative assets get massive boosts when money is plentiful and cheap and get culled hard when it’s not. Crypto has tracked with small tech for years now for this very reason.
"The entire financial market is collapsing" - Lol, alright there, let's do some very simple math. Since the peak of Bitcoin, ~Nov 2018; Bitcoin Fell 74% between 68,991 to 17,600 DOW Fell 16% between 355 to 298 Hmmmmm, No. the US economy is doing a hell of a lot better than the cryptocurrency economy.
Thanks, it's a little bit of luck too. I shorted Nasdaq, DOW, EUROSTOXX 50, DAX and also Bitcoin because I was convinced the inflation and QT has to at least start a correction. Bitcoin is by far the biggest gainer in this, not to downplay the other profit.
I know exactly what dividends are. Yes, I know they reduce the share price accordingly on the ex dividend date, even still, you can use them to rebuy the stock which still leads to compounding vs just holding cash. How is surviorship bias nonsense? Bad companies are eventually excised from the indexes if Standard and Poors feels like they no longer meet the requirements for being in the index. The DOW of today is nothing like the DOW from 1928. If you're so smart, enlighten me.
I clearly don't understand economics. I invested in crypto as a haven from the stock market, a way to "diversify" somewhere I could put my money not influenced by the tides of the DOW. Yet here we are dipping when they dip... Only harder.
Stores of value primarily exist in hindsight. Dogecoin and Tesla have stored value but back then I wouldn't have considered them to be good stores of value. Anyone that's investing is presumably trying to either maintain their wealth or compound it so It's really all just semantics. Neither are necessarily mutually exclusive. I wouldn't say every investment that goes up would be considered a good store of value. To me a store of value has 4 things. It has to have utility, price history, a large pre-existing value and a clear long-term trend. The more of each the less risky the asset. In my view there's only one true store of wealth and that's property. If I were to make a tier list of stores of value in terms of risk/reward it would go as such: S tier- Property A tier- SPX, DOW, BTC, Gold B tier- Blue-chips C/D- Altcoins, non-blue-chips F tier- Cash
BTC hasn’t always followed the Nasdaq though. Yes, this recent cycle saw the highest correlation between crypto and stocks but it still wasn’t a perfect correlation. I agree with you that this bull run for both was propped up and both markets will suffer so long as inflation isn’t checked, but once inflation is curbed crypto doesn’t necessarily have to follow the nasdaq/DOW exactly for a future bull.
I remember: The DOW was about 700 and something. You could buy a middle class home for about $35K. A $12,000 per year salary was really good money. I bought certain candies, 2 per penny; those now cost 10 to 15 cents *each*. A bus ride was 15 cents. Now it's about $3. A new Toyota was three or four thousand dollars. Now: * the DOW is 31K * those same $35K homes are $900K to $1.2M * a $180K salary is good money * a new Toyota is $21K Anybody dumb enough to believe anything you say deserves whatever bad things happen to them as a result.
Everybody here seem to live under the rock. All markets are tanking. NASDAQ, S&P500, DOW. Look at rising inflation and how may's inflation was above projected value. We might be already in recession and crypto is not safe from any of it. It will be probably even more hammered short term than traditional markets.
I know it's a tongue-in-cheek post, but just factually Bitcoin was never really strongly coupled/correlated to the stock market (SP500 or DOW) to begin with, specially if as you've said you've waited "five years". There were ups and downs in [the correlation coefficient](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/cryptocurrency-correlation-study/?timeframe=365days&asset1=SP500&asset2=BTC#correlationtable), but the Pearson index never really going over 0.36 in a year scope and at worst (in the short term of 90 days) being at max around 0.5-0.6 means those assets aren't very correlated. The kind of correlation you think you observe is for couple of hours/days and they are not meaningful to investors, maybe it preoccupies day traders (gamblers) though.
Funny how the FTSE and the DOW though seeing some drops recently are still at near ATH's despite the global economy's looking extremely dicey? Seems that they don't want to go lower at all whereas Crypto is tanking extra hard on very little negative news?
Highly doubtful if you scale back over time and compare what markets were worth 5 years ago. Market values are significantly higher than they were even 10 years ago. For the last year, the DOW Jones is at it's lowest point, but overall it's close to be on par with the highest point of 2020.
What difference does the claim make if there's no point? What's the point? Whatever your point is, it's only valid in an extremely limited vacuum. Gold is money. It's value does not constantly go in one direction, however it trends upward. Which direction is Bitcoin trending every four years? If you had put $$ into each of the following equally just 18 to 24 months ago, which would net you more purchasing power -- BTC, gold, silver, NASDAQ, DOW, US Treasury bonds, etc.??
Krypto Kurrency Klaims (KKK) 1. Encrypted - yes, but very weak 2. Anonymous - no, easily traced 3. Always goes up - no, tracks DOW Jones 4. Inflation hedge - no, goes down with inflation 5. Protection - no protection, no accountability 6. Value - has no value 7. GRQ - Get Rich Quick, no 8. Not pyramid scheme - yes, Ponzi scheme 9. Gold mining - no, vapor mining
Krypto Kurrency is tracking the DOW and proves block-chain is total shit. If the DOW goes down and oil goes up, Krypto Kurrency nosedives. It is proof about all these innovative algorithms was total shitpostware. The millennial snowflake gonk and their worthless fiat currency are soon parted.
I should have said last week actually. I'm wrong over the last 4 weeks. 2 weeks ago it started to even with the DOW and the last week BTC has outperformed. It might be wildly interesting to see what happens when people become scared of the dollar. Typically everyone flocks to silver and gold, and we are just about to hit that point, but if BTC can hold on to $30k for a couple of weeks as global meltdown continues, that's a big moment of truth.
Looks like the stock market wants to go green tomorrow. You can feel the tides are turning. The DOW and the S&P 500's selling pressure has been easing for 4 hours straight now. -DI is dropping on the hourly. Shorts seems to be covering behind the scenes. If we don't get bad news tomorrow, I think BTC will be green alongside the Indexes.
Looks pretty solid, but you wouldn’t diversify that 50% into some Russell/Nasqad/DOW trackers as well as S&P? I would think that diversifying that 50% into other index trackers as well would be good, but probably even more boring.
The NASDAQ is a tech heavy index and often doesn't reflect the whole market. Flr example right now it's down more than the DOW or the market as a whole because with the pandemic easing people are moving money out of tech stocks. My point is that Bitcoin isn't really overperforming crypto as a whole. Some stuff can under perform, some can overperform, but Bitcoin isn't going to stay up when the crypto market suffers a shock and tanks.
how much would you have now if you invested $10,000 into the dow jones vs into BTC and held for: 1 year DOW $9,630 BTC $8,500 2 years DOW $13,400 BTC $33,500 3 years DOW $12,700 BTC $35,900 4 years DOW $13,300 BTC $34,600 5 years DOW $15,800 BTC $144,200
Sadly ppl think btc controls the market when in fact the S&P, DOW, Nasdaq, inflation rates and money supply does. I urge you to check what's being built on other chains and then comme t. Blockchain is the underlying technology and bitcoin is 1 form of how this tech can be applied. What you're saying like saying the Internet is only for sending and receiving emails.
You realize for the next coming months you will see lots of suicide hotlines being shared in different communities right? You realize the S&P 500 has its 3rd worst year opening in the history of the stock market? NASDAQ 100 erased 1.5 trillion in 3 days? DOW is in freefall? This is a sentiment you will see pretty much everything finance related. Id imagine Netflix holders probably felt the same thing. Am i going to make an anti Netflix reddit community filled with satire and venomous hatred? LUNA is a problem for some people. People will have lots of problems going forward that you wont be able to prevent, try and be a friend to them instead of just repeating this “its a scam” mindlessly
Also, one other thing, when the old school institutional guys finally figure out what a decentralized currency means and what wallet-to-wallet transactions are they will stop tying the value of BTC to the NASD/NYSE/DOW/S&P which is crazy that it is. In fact, it is doing the exact opposite of what it should be, for example: when the government announced the sanctions against Russia, It should have driven up the value of BTC due to it being the best way to move money around the sanctions, same with the war with the best way for Russians/Ukrainians to protect and move their money... problem is as more old school money comes into BTC they are just starting the learning curve and many of these guys just arent tech savvy, you cant teach a old dog new tricks as the saying goes! They will come around and get the picture eventually
Bitcoin has definitely been projected to be far far higher than 40k or 80k, or even 200k, right now. The fact is it has stalled, and it's been like that for awhile now. Take that for what you will. BTC is not a "get quick rich" scheme. It's also not a scam, but rather a decent investment, if you believe in the technology. But it's not substitute for investing in the stock market, and there's 0 chance that it will replace those markets. So unfortunately, I've come to the conclusion that Wall Street has largely tethered BTC to DOW and NASDAQ trends, it doesn't have it's own separate trading environment anymore. It's not the same crypto I was investing in 5 years ago, and it's not going the direction I had hoped or expected. Grandmas and aunts aren't buying groceries with BTC, and I don't see that happening anytime soon, if ever.
Because yesterday the DOW experienced a 1000pt drop and the NASDAQ dropped 5%. It was a particularly bad day for the stock market - the worst since 2020. Yesterday some stocks and companies noticed a huge 3% gain, but instead of leveling out 0.5% -1% it instead dropped below the original 3% level. And even though we're not talking about the stock market, crypto is still heavily tied to fiat.
It’s perspective really. As I feel I’ve seen the same happen the other way around too. Decent day on the markets, DOW is up, crypto is up, then BOOM - Evergrande hits and down we all go. I’d gotten pretty good at doing my “last thing before bed dip buy” where I would by a small amount just before lights out and could get some pretty good prices. I mean, I almost spent 4 figures on DOT but decided to hold because it was a pretty flat day. Then that night, BOOM - Ukraine. Ended up getting my DOT at a 30% discount. So it’s all just what you are looking for. It’s perspective.
>so is the stock market Uh…. No. If the top 10 coins falls 99% overnight and stays there for the next 20 - 30 years it wouldn’t cause a world war. If the DOW, SP, or NASDAQ did the same and didn’t recover… WWIII would become a reality.
That's because of fear. This huge run down, and then a +900 in the DOW, crypto follows suit and bounces up 4-5% overall, so those that are scared are all selling now that there was this rebound to investment firms. Next the news will come out will massive FUD as they gobble as much retail assets as possible on this fire sale.
Eh, it’s too late for commodities. That and commodity mutual funds are a 50k min investment with a pretty high expense ratio. I’ve had my eye on VCMDX for a month. But I’m not in the business of day trading. If anything we’re buying into the mkt at a discount. Some may argue the same with crypto, but my logic still holds if the DOW went down 90% overnight it’ll start a war. I can’t say them same for BTC or any other crypto, frankly it’ll just be another Tuesday.
I'm just blindly purchasing index funds at this point. It'll go back up eventually. Because if it doesn't we'll be entering WWIII. ALGO, ETH, BTC, etc dropping 80% of ATH nothings going to happen. But if the DOW goes to 10k... shits about to get real bad.
I agree with you, however it is important to note that even though there is a correlation, BTC moves a lot faster than the stock market. So hypothetically BTC could easily put in new all time highs and break 100k while the DOW and S&P move a mere 20% over 5 months