RL

Deep-Bench-2016

Four reports in 24 hours on Wednesday is not a "pick the winner" setup — it's a "find the divergence" setup. Here's how I'd frame what to actually watch: 1. Capex guide vs. cloud rev growth. MSFT, GOOGL, and META all guided $80-100B+ capex for FY26. If any of them lifts the capex number AND keeps cloud accelerating, that's the bull case re-stamping itself. If capex ticks up but cloud growth flattens, that's the first crack — they're spending into a slowing demand curve. 2. AWS operating margin direction. AWS margin has been the swing factor for AMZN three quarters running. If margin is flat or down with rev growth above 18%, that's actually fine — they're investing. If margin is up but rev decelerates, that's cost-cutting masking demand softness, which is the worse setup. 3. Meta's Reality Labs loss vs. ad rev growth ratio. Reality Labs lost \~$17B last year. If ad rev growth is decelerating AND RL losses are widening, the stock is going to take a different reaction than the "bulls love everything" setup the last few prints have produced. 4. Apple is the loneliest report. AAPL doesn't have an AI capex story to ride, so it has to win on services margin and iPhone unit cycles. The bar is highest there because AAPL has been flat-to-down YTD while the rest ripped. Honest take: the easy money on this print cycle was already made in the run-up. The interesting trades come Friday morning, after we see which of these four diverges from the others. Sector beta gets you to the print; idiosyncratic moves come after it.

Correct-Ad-4285

What convinced you to Invest so much in RL?

-vp-

RL **without** HF isn't something inherently impossible with an LLM / transformer achitecture though. If the model itself is able to self post-train and re-weight itself to "understand" new facts, handle novel tasks asked up them *reliably*, etc.would that meet your definition of AGI? It's something certainly possible with today's architecture albeit likely infeasible in terms of speed, cost, and accuracy and what frontier labs are trying to achieve.

SporksInjected

Ok well that’s great. Waymo is a good thing and you’re right that it would be devastating to their product if you had to intervene. They have a fleet of 3,500 really expensive and specialized vehicles that do a very specific thing and their business is valued on the product doing that. Tesla has a fleet of over six million vehicles that are sold to consumers. They’re selling a lot of cars. My point is that they don’t exactly need to increase their own liability to fully level 3 right now because the business is doing fine with “it drives you wherever you want, but you have to pay attention” Another really good against level 3 for Tesla though is that when you drive in FSD, you’re working for Tesla to make their models better. The car is getting your human telemetry and your RL/feedback to retrain the software. By having this as supervised, they get that for free.

SporksInjected

Ford will literally never catch up and here’s why: Tesla has the only complete, in-house training/RL pipeline. It’s without a doubt the best in the industry because every single car on the road is collecting training data as well as RL/feedback. Millions of cars driving millions of miles per day capturing feedback. Ford or any other American OEM simply doesn’t have anything like this. You can have level 2 or 3 from heuristic systems but it won’t be as versatile as the Tesla solution.

_hiddenscout

RL still has been pretty solid lol. It's the only retail thing I own.

PARABOLIC-Explorer

I don’t like the Cvnt mouth of my ChatGPt. That lil bistch would find me outside in RL

Gizznitt

[Congressional Salaries and Allowances: In Brief | Congress.gov | Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL30064#:~:text=Additional%20information%20on%20many%20of,found%20in%20reports%20referenced%20throughout.&text=The%20compensation%20for%20most%20Senators,from%20Puerto%20Rico%20is%20%24174%2C000.) Compensation The compensation for most Senators, Representatives, Delegates, and the Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico is $174,000.

Gizznitt

[Congressional Salaries and Allowances: In Brief | Congress.gov | Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL30064#:~:text=Additional%20information%20on%20many%20of,found%20in%20reports%20referenced%20throughout.&text=The%20compensation%20for%20most%20Senators,from%20Puerto%20Rico%20is%20%24174%2C000.) Compensation The compensation for most Senators, Representatives, Delegates, and the Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico is $174,000.

AllCapNoBrake

RL look into r/Bitcoin daily thread....LAST year. https://preview.redd.it/883ikp3dkuug1.png?width=399&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d0da16e89f29a211ef318b50b2025a44ffbd699

vplatt

😲 Oh.... that is so SO on point. I'll take a meme war over some stupid actual RL carnage, but hey here we are that we get both. Maybe they can heat sink the real war efforts with extensive propaganda and keep the administration so enraged with them that they don't even notice their commanders ignoring all their raged out illegal orders. Honestly, I think they're on to something here. The Lego style theme is a winner! Shoot, give 'em a Nobel award and see what happens.

roswelljack

going the Civ Gandhi route apparently. Shame RL is not a video game though.

physicshammer

I’m a bit younger than you but not much… What I do is, basically I invest a percentage of my “cash” based on what the current price / valuations are at… so when the market was at 7000, I was 60% in cash. The market went down about 9%, some companies (like GOOG, MSFT, etc.) were down 20% or so… during that time period, I put in about half of that cash, so now I’m at 30% cash. I built up positions in GOOG, MSFT, BRK.B, UI, RL, JPM, TSMC, ASML, etc… the biggest movements were into GOOG and MSFT. Now that the market is kind of irrationally high again in my mind, and with great uncertainty about Iran (I think people might be overly sanguine about it), I’m taking some back out - but maintaining almost the entirety of the positions in GOOG and MSFT, because I am loathe to sell them while they are low :) Anyway - long story short - I do it as a PROPORTION of my cash, and I do things pretty gradually… except when prices on GOOG went down 20%, I deployed cash pretty damn quickly.

Independent-Tree-985

Life is like an RL Stine's choose your own adventure book, and most of you choose to put on the vampire mask

Rich-Use1484

RL in Zurich still employs tons of FTE and Contractors (CW- Contingent Workers). Zurich is a high cost location and CWs are not cheap. So don't believe in Meta's layoffs news.

kalakatikimututu

This is oversimplification. Cursor started from Kimi K2.5, then continued pretraining it and did substantial RL/post-training to make Composer 2.

Boromir-Wants-

I honestly crave attention and it’s obvious asf by the posts I’ve made her today. Not Karma board tells you all you need to know how engaging I am in RL. FML 🤦

Boromir-Wants-

I have a man bun in RL.

funkinaround

Total US Foreign Aid to Israel from 1946 - 2025: \- Military: $124.5B \- Economic: $34.3B \- Missile Defense: $16.1B From [https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33222](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33222) Also, with respect to economic aid: >For many years, U.S. economic aid helped subsidize a lackluster Israeli economy, but since the rapid expansion of Israel's high-tech sector and overall economy in the 1990s ... Israel and the United States agreed to gradually phase out economic grant aid to Israel. In FY2008, Israel stopped receiving bilateral Economic Support Fund (ESF) grants. The country had been a large-scale recipient of grant ESF assistance since 1971. From what I can tell, this aid, like the military aid, required Israel to spend the money on US suppliers. If they bought vaccines and medical equipment from the US to support their universal health care, then I guess that could fit with your guess.

funkinaround

[https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33222](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33222) >To date, the United States has provided Israel $174 billion (current, or non-inflation-adjusted, dollars) in bilateral assistance and missile defense funding. We give (and have been giving) Israel money to buy our weapons.

averi_fox

They got good at math (like actual math aka theorems etc) when they started doing RL for verifiable math problems. "Handing it off to a calculator" is only the easy part of it that only works for computation, not for general math. They can find and verify proofs quite well. On the "uncommonly used combination of libraries": if you use a top-end thinking model (i.e. deep think) and give it a way to verify the results (like executing code) it should find the novel combinations. It will definitely compile when the LLM has the tools to check if the code compiles The problem is the complexity scale, the best models are great at solving well-defined, scoped problems but get lost and messy once the scope gets too big. But that complexity wall has always been here (and always will be), but is constantly being pushed: compare opus 4.6 vs gpt 4. Our expectations got way way higher. The benchmark is about pushing it further to whole codebases with many commits.

RedParaglider

Every model uses distillation. That whole drama over distillation was hilarious for anyone that knows how all LLM's are given RL. That was bullshit technobabble made for investors that don't know their head from their ass.

Lord_Rictor

I don't buy it at all that's the problem. It's refreshing to think outside the box but unfortunately refreshing things never happen in real life. People are more addicted to the internet than ever. AI is only going to boost that with personalized content down to your exact preference of boob size and skin tone. Maybe you want to watch a new game of thrones ending? The idea people will be going out more in RL is ridiculous. For one thing they're not going to have the jobs or the funds to do it. Government will keep the bread and circus going. The bread speaks for itself and the circus is going to be AI.

btcale546

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTFwV8HOjXYSagom1gmfhDlVlE3KQ7RL0C5NQ&s

Hulksulk666

The open Labs / academia and the closed labs are not so far behind in terms of secret sauce . And there already exists alternative transformer architecture (mamba exist and is used) , what the labs are rushing towards is better generalization method in post training other than pure RL since that's not sample efficient .Though they for now it seems their answer to generalization is just throw enough money at it and train on all use cases.

Luctom

RL model training?

eagle2120

RL/RLHF envs negate that need, which experienced offensive operators can clearly see do when they work with the tools and latest models. The uplift for capable actors is quite a bit

skilliard7

>Google's LLMs are competitive by any reasonable benchmark Google makes extensive use of RL to overfit their models to benchmarks, which makes them perform far better in benchmarks than they do in real world tasks. >I use it every day for work as a senior software engineer to accomplish a wide variety of coding tasks, with similar performance to other models I've tried. I've found it to perform significantly worse than Anthropic and OpenAI's models for high complexity tasks. Gemini is good enough for basic coding, but if you are working on apps that require high performance, Claude Opus and GPT 5.2 seem to perform much better >Search and YouTube are having no decline in engagement per the recent ER - search in particular has defied predictions of its imminent demise for quite some time now. ER is only through Dec 2025. The 20% YoY reduction in search traffic was reported for Jan 2026.

skilliard7

> Google stands to benefit most if they start enshittifying and/or more heavily paywalling ChatGPT. You say that, but Google has been enshittifying their product far more than OpenAI has: 1. They are increasing ads displayed on Search and YouTube to boost revenue, at the expense of user engagement. 2. They changed Gemini Pro to always default to their "flash" model, to try and save compute costs... makes for a lousy UI. What are your thoughts on Google failing to produce a competitive LLM, and relying on RL to overfit to benchmarks, misleading investors? I've been running my queries across all LLMs(OpenAI, claude, Gemini), and fact checking the results, and Gemini consistently has a much higher hallucination rate than the others.

Randromeda2172

BO is impressive and is definitely ahead of RL, but RL is the better company imo. There is no reality where launching and landing a medium lift rocket is easy, but it IS easier when you've got one of the world's richest people bankrolling you. RL had to fund Neutron through Electron and Space Systems, which understandably slows it's pace.

Marston_vc

Kind of irrelevant. Everybody knows BO has dragged their feet. That’s exactly why Bezos fired the CEO a year or so ago and replaced him with someone more ambitious. The nature of reusables is that they are essentially exponential. Once BO lands on a reliable and reusable model, which it appears they are nearing, every serial number off the press thereafter is potentially hundreds more in future launch capacity. The BO and New Glenn of today don’t really care about the previous 20 years beyond “let’s be faster than that”. And to be clear, it’s not like Rocket Lab is a new company either. BO was founded in 2001 to RL’s founding in 2006…..

Marston_vc

Blue inarguably ahead of RKLb. I’m long RKLB and got in around $3. I’m very happy with them and think SPB is a great CEO. But from a pure hardware perspective, BO has launched their Falcon 9 competitor, New Glenn, twice and landed the second. Comparatively, RL hasn’t launched their Neutron once yet. I’ve long been a BO hater but it’s a fact that they are ahead of RL regarding reusables as of right now and that won’t be debatable until RL lands its first Neutron rocket and even then it looks like BO is already trying to *reuse* its NG2 booster *this month*. If I had to say, BO is easily a year ahead of RL right now unless RL radically increases their tempo.

candyking16

Funniest thing to come out of Amy 

CEO-of-SOXL

Wife is working late tonight at the club. Time to put the kids down and get some Uber Eats. It’s Lobsterfest at RL boyz

MyGruffaloCrumble

Same thing can happen to your bank account, brokerage account, or any other thing connected to the internet. In RL someone can rob you at gunpoint, clone your debit card, kidnap or mock kidnap a loved one to force you to capitulate.   Scammers are going to scam, regardless of how you choose to hold your net worth.

astromouse2024

What I’m REALLY waiting for is RL. Huge fan of the brand, and I’m liking their insane pricing power with the I think 18% in average unit retail. Obviously tariffs are a huge issue but other than that it’s great. I’m just waiting to see if there’s a bottom because it doesn’t look as though it’s at a discount where it’s at NOW.

eeaxoe

His people are right. The US *is* behind China on open-source AI models. Just compare Llama to Qwen or Kimi — the former is a steaming pile of garbage that torched billions of dollars a la RL for Meta, whereas the latter models are the first choice for startups looking for a model to build on. I even have a side project myself based on Qwen.

_hiddenscout

I really think some retail names are going to have a new boost from holiday sales. Still holding RL and hoping for good numbers.

d33p7r0ubl3

Started seeing a lot more RRL and Polo around Manhattan lately. RL's latest catwalk also has people turning heads. I'm eyeing a position as I think U.S. sales will show growth

weisswurstseeadler

I'm yet to meet a single person in RL actually excited about VR. Even for people excited about the tech (I work with lots of IT Engineers) it's just dusting on a shelf and is 'cool' for just some niche stuff every other moon. And kinda mirrors my experience with VR - cool for a bit, but more like tech-demo cool. AR - on the other hand - I see much more potential.

Blze001

Yeah, well, in RL I'm broke AF too. Becha feel dumb now!

hasuchobe

Ask the people that sold it down to 75% in 2022. Tech stocks frequently get hit with 50% corrections. The 2022 narrative is about to replay again but this time its RL and AI departments burning a hole in META's pockets. No ad-pocalpyse (yet) so no giga correction yet. Also Zuck is pre-empting by trimming down employees which is what gave them the 2022 reversal.

Flat-Jacket-9606

I mean, I didn’t even know it existed until my Fiancee said she liked RL and I should invest. I made fun of her for a bit and she made me look into it, and yeah here I am. One of our quiet lowkey money makers. And it still looks like they have strong growth and are still expanding. Who am I to complain.

d33p7r0ubl3

RL is such a weird one to me because I can’t find anyone who purchases their clothing yet the stock continues to rip.

skilliard7

1. Google is known to cheat at benchmarks by overfitting their models via RL to perform well on benchmarks, when they perform poorly in real world topics. 2. Google still relies on Nvidia for training; their TPUs are mainly for inference(running the models in production) 3. There are other competitors that do a better job than Google's TPUs for inference tasks. 4. Google's deal with Apple is unprofitable and cheapens their brand. They are being paid ~$0.05 per month per iPhone user and have a liability to provide AI services. That's dirt cheap compared to the $20 a month most LLMs charge.

PM_40

>Leading models have hardly improved in the past year in real world performance; most of the perceived gains are just from overfitting RL to benchmarks. This gives shareholders the illusion of progress, when in reality LLMs are not much different to where they were a year ago. That's cheating and siphoning off investors money at scale and likely all are doing it.

_hiddenscout

So wild to look back at this stuff sometimes. RL is up like 13% from this. However, GILT is up 52% lol.

brielkate

Those are still nice brands though; WHBM is underrated in my opinion. The brands that are “hot” really seem to be going after younger people… like Aritzia. That said, their product has such wide appeal that I’ve seen ladies who would be the WHBM/RL type shopping at Aritzia now, and I do think that customer might find Aritzia’s Wilfred and Babaton lines quite attractive.

mustachechap

RL?

iMakeGOODinvestmemts

$META was cheap because people didn’t value the cost of dram and NAND memory they have to overspend by 100% higher. So buyside capex was most likely if I were to guess was $20-25B above consensus. If you take that out from PT that’s why stock was so below all 30x PE or 40% below PTs. I think both buyside and sell side is wrong. If they cut RL, and Dram/Nand prices start going down next year, it could be Goldilocks for Meta that’s about what I can say. No financial advice. It’s an IF as Zuck has chosen to keep RL alive.

iMakeGOODinvestmemts

[$Meta](https://x.com/search?q=%24Meta&src=cashtag_click) was cheap because people didn’t value the cost of dram and nand they have to overspend by 100% higher. So buyside capex was most likely if I were to guess was $20-25B above consensus. If you take that out from PT that’s why stock was so below all 30x PE or 40% below PTs. I think both buyside and sell side is wrong. If they cut RL, and Dram/Nand prices start going down next year, it could be Goldilocks for Meta that’s about what I can say. No financial advice. It’s an IF as Zuck has chosen to keep RL alive

ap485860281

Be interesting to see if it foreshadows RL numbers? Retail did appear to be quite strong though.

AllCapNoBrake

Is there any difference between watching corn on your phone/laptop vs watching your hommie clap your wifes cheeks in RL? No, no there isn't. TYFYATTM

ImpressiveNeat9039

> And one that no one is betting on existing anytime soon Well then you should probably make yourself a bit more aware and probably educated on this topic and probably less bet oriented based on poor information .. I hold a Masters in CS from one of top US universities an AI/ML/D/RL were subject areas and I work on technology. So I know what is happening in these areas very well and how well is it progressing and how far we are from these kind of technologies. You not betting on it is your choice.. Won't stop what is coming.

BrobaFett_1

I've been trying to figure out which retail stock to pickup since I've recently been reading about this bull case. Between RL and CTRN so far. Might snag both. I'd like Hermes, but it's at that premium valuation

creemeeseason

Solid move on RL! Black Friday was record setting and all indications are Christmas will be the same. I know there's a lot of doomers out there, but I'm actually vaguely bullish on consumer discretionary.

_hiddenscout

Agreed. I think we are going to see some good holiday numbers and some of the retail names aren’t AI trades, so they can totally catch up.   Part of why I bought some RL. 

skilliard7

>Going through your comment history, you're very anti-Google for some reason. I think you just missed out. I did buy some Google back in April 2025 when I felt it was fairly priced and I wanted some exposure. You are correct that I did sell it once I felt it was overvalued, and it kept going up. However, I made way more money with SK Hynix than I would've made if I kept holding google. So I have no regrets. >Its average 10-year P/E is 28, so it's not much higher than that, and it deserves a premium right now. I don't think they deserve a higher PE. They are very likely to lose market share over the next decade and see stagnating/declining earnings. Additionally, their capital expenses are growing. > Gemini better than ChatGPT Gemini fails at most tasks I give it that ChatGPT succeeds at. IT either hallucinates, fails to follow directions, or fails to come up with creative solutions to problems. The reasons Gemini scores well on benchmarks is that they performed RL on benchmark questions, rather than real world scenarios, which makes it perform very badly for real queries. >Even if you don't use Google search, it doesn't mean the vast majority of people don't. Please look at a search engine market share graph. ChatGPT will never come close Saying to look for a search engine market share graph in 2026 to justify investing in Google is like saying to look at a video rental market share graph to invest in Blockbuster in 2002... its a red herring and not relevant.

SolarisDelta

RL Baron Haronnenn

2020bubbles

Once again, that does not explain why they are twice the economy of Egypt who has received 94 billion dollars in aid and is still half the size of Israel with a population 10 times its size. Also, the total number is 174, not 300. This is basically over 80 years, which averages slightly over 2. The aid they received in 2022 was 3.3 There is more to the equation you are intentionally ignoring, ingenuity and economic stability https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/RL/PDF/RL33222/RL33222.51.pdf

Gom_KBull

Sure its overblown and companies+investors are wildly overestimating its use case... but its much more than what we had before it (thats why I treat it as a tech leap) i agree LLMs are technologically ants compared to AGI which is elephants and LLMs may not even directly influence AGI research, but i still think we had to incorporate LLMs to some degree to get there eventually. i share the same view about non-LLM AI. specialized areas and RL are soo soo much more valuable. Personally i feel machine learning has so much to offer but its not "sexy" to business/investors

eht_amgine_enihcam

Not even a tech leap forward. The dude making GPT's has come out and said it was a side track. People act like you can pump in compute/data and get better outcomes indefinitely, but the data sources are getting polluted by AI generated data/diminishing returns. To actually approach AGI you'd need a completly different paradigm, I think RL has the best chances but you'd need the proper value function etc.

Inevitable_Pin7755

Probably not anytime soon. Reality Labs isn’t being run like a startup, it’s being funded by one of the most profitable ad businesses in the world. As long as Family of Apps keeps throwing off tens of billions in cash, Meta can afford to treat RL as long-term R and D rather than something that needs to justify itself quarter to quarter. Zuck has been pretty explicit that this is a multi-decade bet. More likely than a shutdown is continued scaling down, tighter cost control, and waiting for hardware to catch up. Killing it entirely would be admitting the metaverse thesis is dead, and that’s not something leadership seems willing to do while the core business keeps growing.

Sky_Tube

The fact that you only focus on launch business which is not even 20% of RL‘s main business shows everything wrong with your research. Their focus is on Space Systems (i.e. satellite components) and that segment just got an order for 816 million USD from the US government. Focussing only on launch is a mistake many people make and it is not the core investment thesis behind Rocket Lab. Vertical integration and having access to space in house is. But you sound very prejudiced so I guess that won‘t change your opinion. And lastly, Rocket Lab is not in direct competition with SpaceX, they serve very different market segments. Might change with Neutron online, but most of the ~2 billion in backlog is for satellites, not launches

Chogo82

I’m familiar with Zitron’s arguments and if this was 1990 then I would agree with them but tech businesses do not function like that anymore so a bunch of his arguments have zero weight when you look into the current landscape of how tech businesses are scaled. It’s like all of a sudden people forgot about the early days of all the FAANG companies and how much debt they all took on. Ed foolishly assumes that current revenue = future revenue. We know this is absolutely false especially in the world of AI. Coreweave is an infra company and experienced 7x YoY revenue growth recently. The application layer of AI is still being developed and ultimately the application layer will make more money than the infra layer. As for GPUs in warehouses, ALL AI infra is currently at capacity. It doesn’t get more bullish than that. The challenge in the US is that with regulations and bureaucracy, it takes ~3 years for a data center to be built up. This means there will ALWAYS be GPUs sitting in warehouses waiting to be put into data centers that are currently being built. As for companies not being successful with AI sure that will always happen early on in tech adoption. Shitty implementation will always be shitty implementation regardless of how shiny the tech is. Shitty company architecture can also lead to shitty implementation no matter the talent you get. What we should be focusing on is which companies are successfully implementing AI. I have friends in several well known companies and all of them have had workflow efficiency gains from utilizing AI effectively. Right now the US is increasingly deregulating in order to produce more power. AI efficiency gains are also on the order of 10x YoY. Prominent people in AI saying the current approach isn’t going to work is referring to ASI. With the current models, the lowest common denominator is words and not cause and effect. That’s why there is a push to explore world models. However that doesn’t mean current models and technology is ineffective. We are seeing how existing infrastructure is being utilized in the field of robotics. Xpeng’s robots learned to perform movements in hours using RL large models and simulated training compared Boston dynamics months of training just 8 years ago. I can go on and on disproving all of your points but if you really care to learn and aren’t here for just the FUD then a quick conversation with any of the chatbots will show you how all the arguments here are easily defeated.

lies_are_comforting

You were just unlucky to be honest. No one had any idea Nike stock wouldn’t continue going up steadily. Going back to Covid lows in March 2020, Nike stock was approximately $60 and take something like Ralph Lauren stock which was also $60 during Covid lows. Today, Nike stock is trading for the same price but Ralph Lauren stock trades for $360. Who would’ve guessed. All I know is I certainly feel better about buying Nike stock for $60 than Ralph Lauren stock for $360. In five years from now I wouldn’t be surprised to see NKE being more expensive than RL.

_hiddenscout

Hey, don't really know too much about them or follow too much with retail/fashion names. Did buy some RL recently, but just looking at the numbers: [https://quickfs.net/company/TPR:US](https://quickfs.net/company/TPR:US) revenue growth really picked up last quarter, gross margins are improving, which something that is great. Same with operating margins. Margins are super important, as dumb as it sounds, but you just make more money on the same amount of revenue. Valuation doesn't seem bad for what you are getting, seems like a set and forget it name, I think you are looking at a fair price here, so you could think about a few different options. Look at TA and try to get a better entry. Put it on a watchlist and buy some on a pullback or just dip your toes in now. If you are buying long term, seems like a great company and a good price. However, not sure how much exposure they have to China. One thing about luxury retail I do know is that a lot of is driven by more middle class: [https://www.michelegargiulo.com/blog/middle-class-luxury-spending](https://www.michelegargiulo.com/blog/middle-class-luxury-spending) So could have some fears around consumers cutting back or any recession talk, but again, if you are going long it's not the worst name out there. Plus getting a little dividend is never a bad thing.

OmegaThree3

So which stock is profiting most from 'YNs" buying quarter zips? Lands End, PVH, RL, Oxford etc.

ap485860281

RL buy coming along quite nicely here. Thanks u/_hiddenscout!

DrunkenSealPup

Moving out will just make you miss gains and raise your tax bill. I'd invest in all 3 and do invest in all 3. Intuitive machines has had a rough time with bad luck for the past 2 launch/landings but I think the IM-3 mission will do well, they've made a lot of changes. In the 2030s people will be saying they should have bought them in the 2020s. PL and RL have solid processes right now and are scaling up. Lunr is a bit longer play. They're all lead by good leadership with good vision.

PTRBoyz

I loaded the boat on META AMZN TSLA during the panic the past couple of weeks. Those were my focus stocks for 2026 (alongside GOOGL and UNH which I already own). I entered into starter positions in RBRK and PATH (very small position honestly, they need to show growth accelerating and and DBNR over 120% for me to be real bullish, but just gamble sized) today which I think could end up being good winners next year (both should get bought out).  I’m also eying BA as a value play now that they’re flipping FCF positive. And would buy RL for some non tech exposure if it consolidated or corrects a little. 

thri54

Operating income was down 40% YoY in 2022. It was lower than FY 2020, too. Reality Labs’ loss had increased from $6.6B in 2020 to $13.7B in 2022. Free cash flow halved year over year, primarily because capex jumped 66% in 2022. Most of that money was investment for Reality labs. FCF was the lowest it had been since 2018. Family of apps was still highly profitable, but reality labs was weighing heavily on their consolidated financial picture. It rebounded because Zuckerberg cut RL’s spending.

No_Hour6830

It certainly does. Reality Labs has posted an $18B operating loss over the trailing twelve months. Meta's operating income over the TTM is $82B, meaning that without RL it would be $100B. It's a mix of operating expenses and depreciated capital expenditures contributing to the loss. The reason it may not seem like their income is being depressed is because frankly they can afford the massive investments. Whether or not they make sense is a totally different question, but they can afford it.

skilliard7

Google is not crushing them, Google cheated on benchmarks via providing testing data in their training sets and overfitting with RL. Their real world performance is massively behind GPT-5 and anthropic. OpenAI will be a $10 Trillion company by 2035.

skilliard7

That Google is ahead in the LLM competition 1. Google has been cheating on benchmarks by feeding their models test data in their training sets, and overfitting via RL. This has created scenarios where Gemini performs impressively well on popular benchmarks, but very poorly in real world usage. This has completely fooled the 99% of investors that do not actually understand AI/ML. 2. Gemini's significant growth in downloads was mostly due to Nano Banana, not the chatbot itself. This is significant because image/video generation is mostly a fad that users engage with a lot for a month while it's new and exciting, and then usage falls off a cliff once the novelty wears off(at which point it just becomes "AI slop"). Chatbots are far more important, because people use them in their day to day life, and at work. 3. Google has been giving their flagship model(Gemini 3.0 pro) away for free, with nearly unlimited usage, but these massive losses have been covered up because Google lumps Gemini with other businesses to cover up how much money they are losing. As a result, investors do not notice just how unsustainable Google's AI approach really is. Gemini's entire competitive advantage is that it is given away for free with high limits, with no ads, subsidized by their profits in other areas. And even with Billions in marketing spend, integrating it with every Google product including Android, they still fail to come close to ChatGPT's engagement numbers.

skilliard7

I wouldn't say no moat, their models are well ahead of their competition for real-world usage. They only lag behind competitors on benchmarks because they don't aggressively use RL to inflate benchmark scores at the expense of real world performance.

skilliard7

OpenAI has better researchers that are more focused on improving the product rather than winning benchmark wars, that's the main value they add. Even Google's latest Gemini model fails to outperform GPT-5 in real world usage, because Google's researchers overfitted it to benchmarks via RL, which came at the expense of real world performance. In theory Google's assets would put them at an advantage, but they are wasting it on buybacks. They aren't investing in top talent like OpenAI is.

Proper_Ad_6044

Yes, that is distillation. While it can be used to train small models from larger models it is no help for the large model it self. RL is one way to get synthetic data but it is limited in a sense that you need a verifiable reward, eg: math and to some extent coding.

caughtinthought

this primarily applies to vanilla GenAI models and doesn't really apply to high quality RL outputs... current frontier models commonly employ the "create a high quality, high compute model and then use the outputs to train a good quality faster/cheaper model"; see Gemini Pro -> Gemini flash etc

broose_the_moose

Its not accurate it’s just a shitty take wrapped in flowers. Companies don’t give 2 fucks about liability if they can reduce their employee spending by 99%. All of the biggest companies are working on systems to replace humans with AI, the reason why it’s not all over the news is that they don’t publicly speak about this shit for fear of an outcry amongst the populous about greedy capitalist companies cutting people out. It’s also not like you can just plug chatGPT into jobs quite yet, it takes a bunch of RL/custom datasets/verification to actually implement this stuff which takes some time. After all this paper is about the theoretical ability of LLMs to replace white collar jobs. Liability has very little to do with replacing a huge amount of the white collar jobs that the paper references. The case for liability being a blocker is only valid for specific professions such as law/medicine.

LoudestHoward

https://i.imgur.com/T5D4RL8.png

gamjatang111

Funny cus retailers are having themselves a day in the market, $LULU, $KSS, $RL etc etc even retail ETF $RTH up pretty big

_hiddenscout

Haven't followed them too closely to know how they trade into earnings, so great insight. However, been on a screener for minute and actually seem like a solid long term hold. Especially at the current validation. My wife uses the monthly subscription thing and she got into it because all her co workers are doing it as well. They are all hair stylist. I used to work for them like 20 years ago in college lol. Actually loved the job at the time, did shipping and receiving. Actually bought some RL last week.

_hiddenscout

Same, just had too much in data center stuff and moved more into aerospace and now doing some more boring names like GTX, ODC and RL

_hiddenscout

Still stoked on my RL position lol

_hiddenscout

Exactly! Yeah, I'm looking at RL as long term hold. Bought a few boring things going into the holiday season. I own too much defense and aerospace. Like bought an extremely boring company the other day, ODC. I wouldn't be surprised to see LULU have a good holiday season. No position, but wouldn't be surprised to see URBN pop after hours today after their report.

jrex035

>Numbers are wonky from experience. Ive noticed different sources provide different figures but usually the disconnect isn't that wide. >I think LULU is a great buy for more of a value thing, just personally I worry about how sticky they are fashion is an interesting space. Very true. To be clear, I was just swing trading LULU in my Roth, got a nice bounce on it, but wasnt planning to hold long term. It was at its 52 week lows and seemed like a good opportunity. Reviewing the numbers on finviz, RL is almost certainly the better longterm hold. LULU might bounce back, but damage to its brand and growing competition make it a lot riskier.

_hiddenscout

Numbers are wonky from experience. I don't know if some companies pull things quarterly vs daily. Also probably use different EPS growth numbers, since that's a big driver in the calculation. I normally go off finviz or stockanalysis. I think LULU is a great buy for more of a value thing, just personally I worry about how sticky they are fashion is an interesting space. I just personally like RRL, which is the high end line for them. With RL, I've just watched them for like over a year without buying it and the stock have just performed really well. I go back to the Buffet idea of 'It's Better To Buy A Wonderful Company At Fair Price Than A Fair Company At A Wonderful Price' and just worry that LULU might be in the later than the former.

jrex035

>To each their own, but I do see the PEG for RL at closer to 1.7 than 2.16 Interesting, was pulling numbers from Yahoo Finance not sure what the disconnect is

_hiddenscout

To each their own, but I do see the PEG for RL at closer to 1.7 than 2.16 [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rl/statistics/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rl/statistics/) [https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RL&p=d](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RL&p=d) [https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/rl/valuation](https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/rl/valuation) Buy what you like man, but I think it's a good price for a great company. Overall, performance is much better in the asset and can see it continue, since they are heritage brand. But do you do man.

jrex035

RL is way overpriced compared to LULU by just about every metric. * PE: 11.58 vs 25.87 * Forward PE: 12.63 vs 23.53 * PEG: 0.87 vs 2.16 * Price/Sales: 1.89 vs 2.92 * Price to Book: 4.59 vs 8.22 Not really seeing the value here for RL

_hiddenscout

I posted about RL like last week and that position is up like 10%. I'd rather own RL over LULU, but to each their own with that stuff. URBN is reporting after the bell close today and it's been an interesting name. They are doing well with their monthly subscription clothing service. My wife uses it. Also helps that ANF and Kolh's are having strong days, probably carrying a lot of retail with it.

_hiddenscout

Good morning for ANF and Kohls lol.  Bodes well for my RL position lol.  Stoked to see URBN numbers after the bell close. No position but have been thinking about it. 

easy_wins

RL is a great stock to have and keep for long term, solid earnings 🚀

_hiddenscout

Still think it's kind of funny how numb you can become to price movements and what not from owning stocks compared to the index. Like I bought some RL last week or two weeks ago and the position is up like 5%. That's like half the gains of what you should expect from the SP500 on a good year. Also still love buying such low volume names lol. Like bought some ODC this morning and the volume is like 15,000 today lol. Smaller company I bought, which I technically can't name since it's sub 500M market cap, but is still priced at 65, is looking at 12,000 shares today lol. Still a lot of pockets of the market that no one is looking at.

TimingEzaBitch

that guy from UK essentially went to prison for this in the 2010s IIRC. A good RL algorithm finding or re-discovering advanced stuff is not a news anymore.

Complex-Note-5274

Valid skepticism about the study design. But this is the only way a research study (ie., academic rather than commercial) can be done - through simulation. No financial institution will tell the public how their algos work let alone sharing historical data of real bots trades for research. The point here is that the technology/infrastructure has enabled a new generation of bots: "While traditional algorithmic trading relies on static, hardcoded rules defined by humans, RL-based trading algorithms autonomously optimize their strategies through self-learning, trial-and-error interactions with the market and adapt in real time based on observed outcomes." Re #2 - please read the research showing the "punishment" mechanism of the bots "cartel" behavior Re #3 - exactly. but pricing away from "fundamental" is the reason for volatility, fragile market, and more importantly, inefficient use of capital

zdy132

DeepMind truly feels like the cutting edge of humanity AI technologies, the kind of feeling that OpenAI used to give. I still remember how amazing the spinning up pages were as RL learning materials. I recommended it to so many people. Their RL Dota project was also fascinating. It got me interested in RL and learning based controls in general. Such a shame that OpenAI has fallen to whatever it is now.

Any_Switch_8126

These hate each other so bad in RL

kvothe5688

bit they still do though. they hallucinate a lot. google was focused on bigger specialised models through RL. their alpha series of models. one of them even earned them nobel.