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My Watchlist For 5/6/2021 - Idiot Proof with Stop Loss and Risk Management
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RPAY Under $5 but just keeps steadily climbing. Looks like it may run to $6 or even higher.
RPAY looks promising, very bottom and buyback already started
Anyone have any theories about RPAY atm?
I picked up some RPAY shares this am. Anyone else looking at this stock?
Tuscan (THCB) closed MVST. THCA has an extension vote coming up. This is Thunder Bridge though which closed RPAY and INDI.
Yeah, pretty much. I had enough positions to escape around my cost basis when the really good teams that had never fallen to my buy levels back in March-May finally did - then I stocked up on them at ATLs. I was liquidating stuff wherever I could to load Klein and Cohen warrants in the .80s and Thunder Bridge (RPAY, INDI) warrants in the .60s when the arb whale sellers showed up. I just always focus on upgrading my holdings and am willing to take losses to buy things that are better and more oversold at any given time. Pre-DA, it's all just price action 90% of the time and with huge spreads comes opportunity.
I don't know what your deal is with continually tagging me as if I care about your opinion on my portfolio or strategy. It's like I live rent-free in your head. "In shambles"? I'm still up 45% YTD thanks mostly to SPAC warrants without YOLOing anything, and am more confident than ever about my current holdings and cost bases going forward. Just today flipped my AGILW for 163% gain for TBCPW (1/5 W in units, same team that did RPAY and INDI) at ATL, and mostly I have been rotating stuff around my cost basis and consolidating positions into top flight teams like Klein, Chu, Cohen, Gores, Foley and CPAR at ATLs. I'm not sure what "schadenfreude" you are taking away from me since I never owned MUDS or PSTH, never claimed DAs couldn't get cancelled (which is exactly why I am focused on getting entries at rock bottom values *before* DA) and none of my SPACs are anywhere close to liquidating. So yeah, to answer your question, it's condescension.
These are fair concerns. I think the large float is intentional due to the profile of a fintech that already does $100 billion in transactional volume and controls enough market share to be so readily accumulated by institutions. Regarding competition, see section on MOAT. They clearly differentiate themselves from competitors in iGaming, eCash, multi-jurisdictional regulatory expertise and risk management. Debt is currently high but they just had their debt rating upgraded, successfully refinanced all of it at much lower rates and are on track to expand margins and cash flow to reduce leverage. As I posted: >"The deal synergies and our growth profile will allow us to de-lever quickly and meaningfully make progress in 2022 towards our target of 3.5 times adjusted EBITDA.” > >This quoted debt/EBITDA ratio is better than most fintechs, including FOUR, RPAY, AFRM, BILL, PAYS and FISV. Even before they reach that target, the new interest rate of 3.25% indicates that their pro forma free cash flow to debt service ratio will be around 4.5 to 1.
I'm bullish on this. Not every day you get a SPAC buying buying high growth, high margin businesses at good valuation... \- AdTheorent operates at ‘Rule of 50’ based on 2021P revenue ex-TAC growth and adjusted EBITDA margin; projected annual revenue ex-TAC growth of 28.4% between 2020-2023 and average adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.9% between 2020-2023 \- Palantir in the PIPE, Sponsor upping their commitment in the PIPE \- "42% valuation discount to peers"...21x 2022 EV/EBITDA \- Profitable, cash flow +. The company never did another equity raise after their Series A in 2015. Have grown from their own internally generated cash. One negative is that the sponsor shares is slightly high at 5.9% of proforma ownership, meaning higher dilution. Their last SPAC, RPAY, is trading at $25 though.
You like $PSFE you should check out $RPAY
$FSRV is $RPAY (another SPAC) on steroids. Easy 4x.
$COHU - We have a very strong support, so not BAD but it could be a bit better. If we get a good deal or some life, it could be a very lucrative trade here. ​ $DAO - Very similar to $COHU bit a macro scale play. If we break this resistance trend line, it may be a massive hit. ​ $EARS - Very large potential and volatility, so do extra DD. I like it but in this market it could be a bit sketchy - BUT very profitable. ​ $HIMX - Amazing horizontal triangle. IF we get a breakout to the upside, this thing could be an incredible hold and play for weeks. ​ $NARI - Ascending triangle looking beautiful here. Convergence with the support and trend here - it is an amazing play right here. ​ $RPAY - Amazing horizontal play here too. Very close to $DAO as well, just use a stop loss as well. ​ $WCLD - Amazing ETF that is at value, do extra DD - but when these do get cheap they could be an amazing longer term hold / quick scalp. ​ $ZI - Amazing long term triangle. IT could be a few dollars lower, but when this hits value it may be quite the amazing play!
A few other ex-SPACs which have done warrant tender offers include BIOX, BBCP, AGLY, FG ( FGL Holdings, 2018 merger) and USWS. METX lowered the exercise price of their warrants temporarily to $1.40 a share in December 2020. That offer expired in January. Several SPACs have done warrant amendments or tender offers as part of the business combination, including RPAY (paid $1.50 per warrant, warrants changed from 1:1 to 4:1 ratio), LSEA (paid $1.85 per warrant, warrants went from 1:1 ratio to 10:1 ratio), FREE (paid 75 cents per warrant, warrants went from 1:1 to 2:1 ratio), and ID (paid $0.18 in cash and 0.082 of a share of ID). So it isn't that rare that warrant terms are modified before the expiration or redemption of SPAC warrants.