Reddit Posts
I am afraid to stop contributing towards my investments to build 6 month emergency fund because of my portfolio manager
WSB and Stocks won't let me post this but here is my DD on $OPI - JPOW to the MOON
AWS Can't Compete in Cloud so Now Is Openly Attacking Microsoft
Private company I invested in looking to go public through a reverse takeover (RTO)
Mentions
Oh don't get get me wrong, I don't mean to trivialize what's happening there now. I kind of miss visiting but it's way too unpredictable right now. But I'm hoping that it will eventually stabilize. Maybe that's naive but that's the hope. Up here across the border we are also affected. So much of our trade has been with the US. Some of our leaders got the RTO idea from yours, it seems. Our prices have gone up a lot too, even basic groceries are much more expensive than even in December. A lot of our produce comes from your farms - even lettuce for some reason - why can't we grow enough of our own lettuce?
Yeah then you don’t know. Shit is expensive for the same or less than before. Thought Covid was bad but now it feels like it’s gonna get worse. We got breweries closing left and right. Strip Malls barely hanging on. Employers are doing the RTO to get people to quit. Companies are doing more with less and we aren’t happy about it. Gas prices been up because of the war like we weren’t just scraping by before and now this. So yeah it’s different today vs 2011…
What did Khameni in was his inflexible RTO policy. They could’ve had the Saturday call on Teams.
**Khameni last meeting transcripts:** Thank you for coming on such short notice. And on a Saturday. I’m sure your wives are thrilled. Today’s topic: RTO and Unlimited PTO. It’s important we are together. Every day. In person. Alignment requires proximity. As for Unlimited PTO. It is unlimited. In theory. Taking it, however, would signal weakness.” Remember: culture isn’t built in Slack. It’s built in rooms where no one is comfortable leaving. Finally, who ordered Einstein bagels, again? I said last time…
Khameni insisted on RTO. That did him
Khameni’s RTO policy is what did him in. He insisted all senior leadership to be present at the staff meeting on Sat. No Teams call, no exception.
Khameni could’ve just used Teams for the meeting. Nah, he had a struck RTO policy. Everybody had to come in.
There have been many false dawns since this journey started back in September, but I truly believe this will be my last update on this thread. For those unaware, SONM must file the audited financial statements for the DNAX acquisition (19th December) by Monday 2nd March. But it is now clear to me that SONM never intended to file these statements. The DNAX platform has zero traffic, no privacy policy page, and no terms & conditions when you try to connect your wallet. It is a complete smokescreen, and a very bad one at that. The entire purpose of the DNA acquisition was to buy a 71-day grace period with the SEC where SONM did not have to declare itself as a shell, provided it could close another IPO disclosure-level transaction in that period e.g. a super 8-k which contains full audited accounts for 2-3 years & a 200-page prospectus. The question is now whether that grace period was enough time for SONM and the theorised counter-party to close the deal. It is in this context that I have also realised that the QMLS direct listing was never about separating the hardware and software layers. They may still indeed do that down the line, but the more likely answer is that by filing to direct list, Qumulus was able to derisk its own audited financial statements and prospectus by getting the SEC to pre-review it. Now that the SEC has done that, Qumulus can roll these statements into the SONM PIPE super 8-k, effectively rendering the DNAX acquisition statements meaningless. They will effectively weaponise the regulators' approval to prevent them from shutting down the deal. A super 8-k completely derisks the merger from a Qumulus point of view. Whereas an RTO via an S-4 (as originally planned back in June) would've taken months of SEC comments and a shareholder vote to close the transaction, a super-8k closes the transaction entirely and doesn't need shareholder approval, as the PIPE investors (qumulus) will be issued with series A preferred convertible shares - this is how Chardan always do it. What gives me confidence for Monday is that if SONM didn't have a deal ready to go and were forced to file the bullshit DNAX statements, they would've filed them last night after hours in the hope that the market would forget about it over the weekend. You do not file statements that out yourself as a shell to the market and regulators on a Monday - that would be corporate suicide. This has been a crazy investigation and I never planned on going down such a rabbit hole when SONM first came on to my radar. While there is a non-zero chance this could prove to be a wild goose chase, I somehow really doubt it. Thinking about this from a pure self-interest point of view, every party would lose if this deal doesn't close: 1. SONM would become regulatory purgatory and no one would acquire them for 12 months 2. Chardan, who are not taking a fee and are getting paid in shares, will be stuck with privately valued shares that are pennies in comparison to what they usually get paid for such a deal 3. Qumulus would be unable to execute their 23k roadmap, would complete destroy their "hyperspeed" branding, and would be stuck looking for another public vehicle for another year, or IPO and give up equity they have been hell bent on not giving up. I want to thank everyone for their contributions. I've had a lot of DMs about this trade since I first wrote the proxy statement thesis and have made some real friends along the way. If this does print, you can head over to the new subreddit I made where we can discuss valuations and next steps on the QumulusAI sub (I'm not allowed to link to it here). If it doesn't, let's pretend this all never happened and never speak again. See you all on the other side.
Tech led the way in 2022 for RTO and stopping of hiring, bers, keep your eye on this
Throw them into the volcano to appease the market! Chant the sacred mantras of AI and RTO!
Teamviewer, just like Zoom, et al were darlings of the Covid remote work world. Now, with heavy-handed mandates to force RTO, these tools are no longer nearly as valuable as they were back then.
Last gasps of a dying era. RTO is pointless and workers know it. Now it's time for Commercial Real Estate to suck it.
as a regular user, i might tweak your analogy, we built an fleet of semis that now can be operated by one methed out trucker on highways that only used by other truckers. Sure there is some risk, but the only people who really notice are other methed out truckers and who gives a shit about them, we RTO'ed them and they quit anyway
When will my AI supe RTO??
Layoffs are at a 17 year high Companies would simply not be pushing 5 day RTO mandates and extra harsh performance reviews if the economy was good
With RTO a lot are just people retiring or leaving the work force entirely. I'm about to change jobs for the second time this year. Maybe even again next year we shall see.
We have a 3:1 pay ratio for our India resources compared to our us people. The sad thing is they cut the US resources further that we lost 4-5 people for every 3 people they brought up over there. So yeah my company is banking on that for revenue and the forced RTO to smaller offices making money hand over fist.
They have no choice. Their customers are demanding this compute. If they're investing this much, I see it as a positive. However, the way they are treating staff in an effort to free up cashflow for AI investments does concern me. AWS has to be 100% reliable to retain customers, and laying off experienced staff or losing them through forced RTO seems to me to be storing up problems.
Amazon is too busy innovating RTO attendance tracking tools. The stock will surely shoot up once everyone is fully compliant with RTO5.
Don’t forget the absolute terrible RTO plan and removing WFH from Amazon. Just a complete shitshow that is paying for their practices.
I'm at the outskirts of the company, and there are three concerning things about Microsoft I well pondered on that in the end made me sell my stock before the earnings: 1 Leadership change. Due to the changes in direction and signals coming from them in the brief time since they took charge, I have no faith in this new Leadership Team. 2 Broadly sweeping return to office that sees them reverse a hugely beneficial policy that leads them to actively bleed their best talent. Fyi, Microsoft benefitted massively from the Google and Apple RTOs, with their "work from anywhere" guarantees in place since 2020. Those are the people behind significant product and revenue improvements in the recent years at Microsoft. Even Edge got good as a good chunk of the Chrome and Safari teams moved to Microsoft as the Edge team was fully remote. Once new MS leadership took charge, the first order of operations was to start talking AI and cutting employment numbers, and so they announced a reversal and a RTO. This further eroded my trust in their new leadership. The weekly Team meetings now supposedly spend a chunk of time talking about departures of the most experienced folks who tend to have options, and who were the reasons why the last few years were wildly profitable for Microsoft. 3 Their disproportionate ties to the success of OpenAI, which does not have a viable path towards monetization that would pay them back for their massive investments. But the main red flag to me are the Leadership and direction changes away from what made them so much money. It's a common sentiment within Microsoft. The unpopular or risky decisions make me doubt that they remain as successful as they were, aka I doubt 2026 and 2027 are as good as 2025 was for them. And in the end, when making stock decisions, they are future-facing.
To me, this sequence seems less like a coincidence and more like a calculated financial strategy. Phase 1: Impose a rigorous RTO, which naturally triggers "voluntary attrition" (reducing termination costs). Phase 2: Audit the remaining workforce to identify high-cost redundancies. Phase 3: Execute targeted cuts to finalize the reduction of operating expenses. I wonder if the RTO requirement wasn't just about collaboration—it actually functioned as a mechanism to audit the efficiency of the workforce and maximize revenue per employee, just in time for the first quarter report.
The job market is the worst I've seen since about 2010. Housing and rents are absurd. Tons of jobs are implementing RTO policies, and cars are wildly expensive too.
RTO x 5. That should increase value for the shareholders 🫣
since late 2022/early 2023 it's gone line this: end of remote work (return to office). 2 rounds of layoffs totaling 30k+ right before the RTO as well (my RTO date was may 2023). from there we shifted from hybrid (3 days in office, 2 remote) to full in office with no remote. then as of 6-ish months ago they pushed a "return to hub" where many/most employees need to move to a hub location (so Seattle/Virginia) by a certain point or lose your job. then the recent news is 2 more rounds of layoffs (around 30k total again) PLUS they released a new internal tool to flag folks who aren't in office by a certain time and/or spending "x" amount of hours in office which has never been a thing for salaried employees at amazon historically speaking. basically at this point i just feel like a cuck if i stay, lol.
It's not his time as a CEO I was talking about. He was the one that started and led AWS from the beginning. That's why he's important for Amazon. Also, working there, my yearly raises were much better than under Bezos because of his policies. I hate the RTO shit he's pulled, other than that, I don't really give a fuck. As for the stuff you mention, mostly true, only the stuff about the stores is bullshit because it wasn't a scam, just a pilot project that failed.
Sorry, best we can do is offer mandatory RTO, and if you can't comply, you're "quitting."
I work at a company that only requires us to go into the office once a month. The last time we were hiring we basically got the pick of the liter because of other companies pushing away top tier employees with their RTO policies.
I'm also in the tech industry (not gaming) but we had the same shit. Everyone who didn't RTO got PIP'd and canned. It's not just Ubisoft, this is a widespread problem.
Thanks for reading and the kind words. Of course I have no problem addressing all your questions - healthy scepticism is always welcome. Regarding my background: I don't have a degree in finance, nor have I worked in an M&A environment. I did study economics in school, and I have a post-graduate degree in a government-related field and worked near policy-making for best part of 5 years. I had some exposure to macroeconomics in that role but more importantly the job required a forensic level of attention to detail, which I think has served me well in other areas of life - investing being one of them. I've been investing/trading as a hobby for the last 4 years, and in that time I have grown my portfolio by 600%. I have a tendency to go down rabbitholes on topics I find interesting (I'm slightly ADHD), which I think gives me a natural inclination to deep dive on a stock and learn about a new company & industry. I actually work in a creative field now after a complete career change, but would love to eventually be a full time investor. As for previous delays, I presume you are referring to previous posts back in September/October when we were in the dark about the RTO structure having been abandoned. It's important to remember that, at the time, we were still under the impression that the transaction was structured as a classic S4-style reverse merger. S4 mergers invite a lot of SEC scrutiny and can take many months to be approved, so our thinking (mine & doot's) was that the S4 filing would be filed around that time to allow enough time for it to be approved before the asset sale outside date (13th January). It was only when the November proxy statement was filed (which was filed immediately after the government shutdown ended) that we found out the RTO structure had been abandoned. As you'll recall, my reading of the proxy statement is that the RTO was abandoned because Social Mobile's lawyers, Blank Rome, did not want the RTO linked to the asset sale. Regarding industry-wide momentum, you are right that there has been a cool off on neoclouds. To be perfectly transparent, I am skeptical of the sector as a whole and do not have any positions in any other neoclouds. That said, I think 2026 will see a growing shift towards inference now that a lot of these LLMs have been trained and I think that is one of several things that makes Qumulus AI exciting. You don't need to be hyperscale to deliver inference - you actually need to be hyperspeed, because that gives you a better chance of securing the contract with the company that needs that inference. Mike Maniscalco put it very well in his first interview: what if you could achieve the same level of scale over time but through a hyper-distributed/decentralised and modular system that is deployed at hyperspeed? To put this into numbers, think of hundreds or thousands of small modular pods distributed in various places that each take 30-60 days to deploy, rather than one big hyperscale factory that takes years and doesn't make any money until it's finished construction? If you think of companies like electronics, plane or car manufacturers that require AI for things like yield optimisation, defect detection, predictive maintenance and so on, you need something that is near your factory for latency purposes - those are speed-dependent applications that require real-time feedback. A hyperscale centre on the other side of the country is no use to you, and it's also complete overkill. What you need is access to a small cluster of GPUs on site or in the nearby area. This is why hyperframe research are arguing inference is the next [bottleneck ](https://hyperframeresearch.com/2026/01/15/is-distance-based-latency-the-ultimate-bottleneck-in-the-inference-ai-economy/). When you pair this distribution model with the financing model Qumulus AI have in place with Permians Labs - DeFi which can be accessed in 7 to 30 days as opposed to TradFi which takes 60-90 - you start to really appreciate the beauty of this approach, especially given that the interest payments are also much less than TradFi. I'm not sure if I've actually answered your question, because you asked me about neoclouds relative to other trades like drone tech and power gen. I haven't gone deep into either of those areas so I can't give you an educated answer. I think satellite connectivity will be a big thing later this year. I have been following ASTS since 2019 before they went public and have had shares in them since 2021, and I think they're only just getting started. Solid-state battery tech is a big one and I'm a fan of Quantumscape. I also think autonomous trucking is something to keep an eye on towards the end of 2026 once there is the regulatory framework for it.
I haven't taken a real 💩 since RTO 5x was implemented a couple weeks ago. Puts on my bowels
Spent all that money and then supported the RTO party. Incomprehensible.
These are all very real problems, and I'd say the root of tackling them is tackling various sorts of inequality. There's a labor shortage in agriculture that can't currently be solved without immigration or seasonal foreign labor. Both of these types of labor will continue to be exploited (decreasing wages for everyone) for as long as they don't have equal labor rights to Americans for the duration that they are in the country. That problem will persist for as long as these workers are treated as an underclass, are afraid to report employer violations, can't change jobs easily, and can't compete on equal footing with Americans. This applies also to H1Bs and those with pending green cards based on employment. For as long as there's fear and inequality of treatment, there will be exploitation and depression of wages. Some part of agricultural workers would prefer to come here for a few months and then go home the rest of the year if that were possible. Their money goes further at home and they have higher status at home. But the available visas that allow this don't come close to meeting the demand, so they come and stay illegally rather than risk multiple border crossings or irregular earnings. For as long as people can't reliably plan their lives around crossing the border both ways for seasonal work, illegal arrivals and their exploitation will continue. Small and medium business is struggling because Congress is bought and sold by large corporations. This is made possible by the current state of laws around campaign finance. If I could reform this, I would make it so that political donations aren't made to a candidate but to a race, are always anonymous, and then all donations to that race are split evenly between candidates' campaigns. Apparently there was an attempt to pass this kind of reform years ago but it failed. As far as I know it's the norm in at least some parliamentary democracies that candidates are limited to spending the same set amount on campaigning. That's why political campaigns in Europe are a lot shorter. There are lots of other things that can be tweaked, like eliminating preferential tax treatment to specific companies - either all get it, including small and medium business, or none do. To your last point - remote work solves this. People love remote work, and during the pandemic when it was the norm we saw an exodus from big expensive cities to smaller ones. Rents went down in big cities as a result. But executives ignored the studies showing the benefits of remote work and ordered RTO, so this process got mostly reversed.
Every time goog rips up during overnight and premarket, it ends flat or red during RTO, so 🤞its not going to be a rug pull again. My ass still hurts.
RTO isn't happening, as per the title of this post. DNA X can't hit the 600 million volume/1 million revenue/day without the 30% deposit Permian Labs needs to give Qumulus AI the 70% leverage. They cannot wait until SEC approval that would take 3-6 months. Add another 3 months to raise the capital for the B300s and another 3 months for them to deliver and suddenly B300s are irrelevant with NVIDIA rubins delivering in H2 2026. Qumulus AI need to raise cash via the markets immediately - they are running out of time. The only vehicle that is ready to do that is SONM. Predictive Oncology have a lot of Aethir on their books but their filings say don't intend on converting that to any other stablecoins (which would have to happen to buy USDC to then convert and stake USD.AI.)
A lot of the dates are all pretty close as well see qumulus and sonm reverse split. The qumulus direct listing right after the vote. The oncology pipe was in October as well. I want to say oncology or the computer may have reverse splitting October September as well at 15-1. All multiples of 3. I need to play with dna x a bit but looks like it does swing trading if you connect a wallet. Looks like we are just going to hangout in this 2.80-3.20 channel. That put option dna x deal also coincides with the typical period it takes for a company to go public via S1. Part of me feels like any qumulus RTO pipe gets announced after SEC approval. Or they do a more aggressive full RTO if direct fails
Vistra Corp. to acquire Cogentrix Energy whose generation portfolio consists of 10 natural gas facilities totaling 5,500 MW of capacity for approx. $4B. The deal is $2.3B in cash, $0.9B in stock ($185 par) and assumption of $1.5B of debt. The assets are located throughout the PJM, ERCOT, and ISONE RTO regions.
LOL they brought back people to the office today for mandatory RTO. Some of these ppl been working remote for 6 years now. RIP 🙏 thoughts and prayers.
Apologies in advance if this isn't too organized. Is this comment you wrote still going with the idea of the synthetic RTO? This is assuming they have clients lined up to be able to make use of all of those GPUs at max capacity, right? If only for a single day? What about the time to set up/build out the infra for the GPUs itself, not including the time required for the ordering, shipment, etc? Is the DEX just an excuse for SONM to have a business then, in your thesis? If this is the case, how is DNA X going to be the beneficiary of that revenue (to fulfill one of the two milestone requirements per the acquisition terms) coming from the GPUs if Qumulus is the one getting that revenue? Would the DEX play a part at all here? After having written all of this out, I'm guessing you're anticipating Qumulus coming in to still use this new DNA X company to go public, but changing the name and ticker to something of their own? But then what about the DEX, the terms of the acquisition with its one of two conditions? I guess my questions about clients, max capacity, ordering, shipment and build out still stand. I feel like if you're going for the synth RTO, it doesn't really matter whether the DNA X DEX business is given back to DNA Holdings or not. Why does Qumulus need DNA X (the business) anything to perform their transactions? I feel like the only way the RTO thesis makes sense is if this most recent deal for the DEX is really just for a placeholder for SONM. But if that's the case, then the $600m volume/$1m revenue a day thing doesn't matter?
An 8-K reports *sudden, material events* (like M&A, exec changes) quickly (4 days) with *factual, sometimes furnished* details, while a Proxy Statement (DEF 14A) comes annually for shareholder meetings, offering *detailed, filed* governance info (exec pay, director bios, proposals) with *more room for nuanced, qualitative* strategy & compensation narratives, making the 8-K for *news*, the Proxy for *governance & long-term context*, though both must be accurate and not misleading. Have to ready proxy and 8k together. They can speculate more in the proxy. they removed RTO and all that language from the sale so can't have in 8k. This transaction isn't contingent for take over or vice versa they are totally separate
I don't really understand the reason for rebranding as DNAX though if the goal was to RTO Qumulus. Could it be that the asset sale also prevents them from operating as SONM and so they need something for the interim? Feels like that would've been mentioned if it were the case.
The stuff gets sold off. It rebrands as dnax. The crypto arm. Chardan helps set up RTO, as qumulus uses a crypto for their payment. Could potentially use dna x as home base for that like binance has binance coin. It’s pay as you use ai so people buy a bunch of coins creating residual value that then is used for whatever they use ai space for. Vs a monthly plan like a chat gpt
Speaking within the context of energy generation in the US: Over the next 20 years, the rising energy demand will be met with new renewables, new gas, by running coal/gas plants at higher capacity, and keeping more coal/gas online that is slated to retire. The relatively few nuclear plants slated for retirement may also stay online, which is about as bullish as I am for nuclear to “grow” relative to the baseline. This is not a statement on if I think nuclear is safe/clean/good (it is). It’s just too costly for any new capacity to come online compared to how easily renewables are scaled, and how cheap they are to operate. Every nuclear plant is already running at near 100% capacity factor because they are efficient and costly to ramp up/down, so grid operators never turn them off. You can see what I mean [here](https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards/fuelmix) for the fuel mix over the course of a day in Texas: nuclear generation is a flat line at nearly 100% of its total capacity in Texas, and that is the same every day in every region, RTO, and utility. Which means generation at existing plants literally cannot increase, so you shouldn’t even be bullish on expanding fuel demand. Barring a massive, unprecedented shift in how nuclear is regulated/permitted/subsidized/generally viewed politically and economically, it is not going to have a rebirth just because energy demand is increasing That’s all to say, I know this is a stock market subreddit, and general energy market dynamics don’t mean that any individual stock or index won’t a good investment. I’m just responding to the premise of your post; you should adjust your priors away from assuming nuclear is due for a renaissance in the US. There aren’t any forecasts that believe that is likely
What about their dozens layoffs in the past few years? RTO this year?
I feel like the companies which have wanted to do RTO have already done it by this point.
RTO movement is dead. Mandates don't work and nobody important actually shows up.
Sweetgreen has always been a lunch spot. No one brings their family there. As RTO continues to gain momentum should be good - everyone being forced back can still afford it. And their competition kind of sucks. Just Salad tastes like ass. Position: nothing (yet) might pick up a lil tomorrow
Yes but it confirms the thesis furthermore So don’t panic guys. This isn't a random pivot; it is the exact execution of the "Party 9" plan. 1. The "Smoking Gun" The proxy explicitly said Party 9 (Qumulus) proposed a "crypto treasury strategy" and "staking income" alongside the AI deal. • DNA X is that strategy. It is an automated DeFi trading protocol. • It is not replacing the AI deal; it is the funding engine to pay for the GPUs. 2. The Architects (DNA Holdings) The seller, DNA Holdings, isn't some random shop. They just structured a massive $344M "Strategic Compute Reserve" deal for another Nasdaq issuer (Predictive Oncology). • Translation: They are the bankers building this structure. They know exactly how to bridge public shells with decentralized infra. 3. The Blueprint We now have all three legs of the stool: • The Growth: Qumulus AI (Party 9) • The Treasury: DNA X (Yield Generation) • The Capital: $500M ChEF (Equity Line) Verdict: This confirms the Synthetic RTO is happening. They are building a vertically integrated AI + Crypto beast. The thesis is stronger today than it was before the filing.
Nailed it. The only other thing is that Amazon is treating it's corporate employees like shit. Working for amazon in the past (like, ten years ago), the culture there encouraged visionaries and folks who believed in the mission of the company. The pay wasn't top notch among FAANG but it was decent. Now, Amazon has become so much more cutthroat. They have swapped to a more mercenary mindset. Problem is, you gotta pay top dollar to attract folks with that mindset and Amazon absolutely is not doing that. RSUs are a significant portion of your comp at Amazon and their stock has basically been trading sideways for quite some time. So they don't have visionaries and they don't have mercenaries and on top of that, they are engaging in historic layoffs with multiple rounds. Further, Amazon's RTO policy is much more draconian than the average tech company. They pretend that it produces the best culture while simultaneously cutting travel related benefits. They originally were going to complete cut parking subsidies for employees and then only cut them by half after employee backlash. How exactly are you going to extoll the virtues of being in the office while simultaneously making it harder for people to get there? Who even wants to work for Amazon anymore, unless they have no other options? And how can Amazon do anything innovative when the only employees they attract are those with no better options?
Fire it up or get fired. RTO sucks a little less.
haha I get it, but unfortunately no - I work in Dearborn, live in Oxford ... RTO has been fun :(
That 'rebranding' history is just how Reverse Takeovers (RTO) work—they bought an empty shell (Cassel/Guild) to list quickly. The old history belongs to the shell, not the current defence tech.
That 'rebranding' history is just how Reverse Takeovers (RTO) work—they bought an empty shell (Cassel/Guild) to get on the LSE without all the extra hassle. The old history belongs to the shell, not the current defence tech. You're right about 'no sales' though—this is why we're waiting on the December commercial realisationmentioned in a previous statement. We are betting that they flip from 'R&D Phase' to 'Commercial Phase' this month. If the contracts land, the 'no product' argument dies instantly and the stock should get a re-rate
Crazy to think my employer has implemented a RTO policy - and tracks it via "badge swipes"... I have not gone to the office a single time during the entirety of 2025 and nobody has noticed yet... If they catch me I would rather get fired than be forced to go since the commute is soul draining.
That's why they forced RTO so hard, they are loosing ass on commercial property right now and dropped $3 billy on the new HQ no one wants to work at.
You’re actually right about scaling, CHAR Techs main issue is scaling fast enough. One facility isn’t enough to move the needle long term. They need multiple sites up and running, and that’s exactly what they’re lining up with the Thorold and the Lake Nipigon project. Scaling is the real challenge, not feedstock. Feedstock itself isn’t the bottleneck at all. Ontario produces way more forestry residuals, sawmill waste, and construction wood than CHAR could ever process. There’s an insane surplus of clean biomass that’s literally being landfilled or burned right now. The risk is how fast they can replicate Thorold, not whether they’ll run out of material. The actual demand side is the opposite of risky, it’s basically unlimited. Steel producers are all under carbon tax pressure, regulatory pressure, and customer pressure to decarbonize. Same with RNG, utilities are required to add RNG into their pipeline mix for compliance. So the market is already there waiting. CHAR’s issue is not finding buyers, it’s building capacity fast enough to supply them. On the technicals: the chart looks like it’s been down since day one, but that’s because of the reverse takeover years ago of a shell company they merged with. After that, the early price action was hype with nothing physical built yet. Now that Thorold is almost completed and actual commercial production is about to start, the stock is finally entering a phase where price should reflect fundamentals instead of the old RTO overhang. Scaling quickly is the real challenge, not demand or feedstock. And the technicals only start to matter now that the company is transforming from hype to real revenue and production.
He cares more about RTO than anything else
It is, although what is slightly troubling is that party X has been renamed to party 9 in that same filing (but interestingly remains as party X in the proxy). Currently trying to wrap my head around why they would suddenly go from an alphabetical identifier to a numerical identifier and whether this still means party 2 could = party 9. My best guess is that the legal entities for a PIPE and an RTO must be different. In this case, perhaps the PIPE investor might be QAI Moon LLC whereas the RTO target may have been Global Digital Holdings or vice versa.
RTO is dumb. These execs could steal our money by letting us gamble from home, instead I have to better manage my liquidity when I’m stuck in an office
Yeah, I went all-in before the RSS because I was worried the RTO would drop at the same time... really wish I hadn't, but we make our choices :) This whole thesis has been fun to play along with since Aug, but yeah - definitely not for the faint of heart lol
The predictions made both myself and doot were based on the information we had at the time. SONM did not make it public that they had pivoted from an S4 RTO to a synthetic RTO. If you can’t appreciate how that affects the timing of filings and how the transaction unfolds you can’t be helped. The 8k has to be filed within 4 days of the shareholder vote, and the shareholder vote must happen before 13th January.
One more thing I've spotted on a 5th reading. One of the confusing things about the proxy, as I noted in the main body of my post, is that certain parties are assigned alphabetic identifiers (Party A, B, X, etc.) while others are assigned numeric identifiers (Party 1, 2, 4, etc.). The key to understanding this is that the labeling system does not identify parties by identity or deal likelihood, but by the type of transaction track they were involved in at the time the events occurred. According to the proxy, alphabetical labels are used when a counterparty’s communications “involved the Legacy Business”, which does not mean the party is interested in *buying* or *operating* the rugged-device division. Instead, it means their proposal required evaluating how the legacy business would be separated, what liabilities would remain in the public shell, and how the structure of the asset sale would affect them. This includes parties contemplating a capital infusion or PIPE after the asset sale, because such investors must understand the post-sale condition of the shell. These are “Legacy-involved” communications, and therefore alphabetic. Numeric labels, on the other hand, represent parties engaged in non-Legacy Business strategic transactions, including reverse mergers, change-of-control discussions, or PIPEs associated with bringing a new operating business into the shell. For example, Party 4 is numbered even though they contemplated a PIPE, because their PIPE was tied to an RTO/crypto-treasury strategy, not to the legacy business separation. This distinction becomes crucial when we examine the language used for Party X. The proxy states that on August 8, 2025, Party "**extended a letter of intent contemplating a PIPE transaction RATHER THAN A CHANGE OF CONTROL OR REVERSE MERGER**”. This phrase is extremely telling. The only reason to say “rather than a reverse merger” is if the party had PREVIOUSLY been involved in discussions about a reverse merger or change of control. But these are precisely the types of discussions associated with the numeric (non-Legacy) track, not the alphabetic one. Alphabet parties, by definition, are not introduced as RTO candidates in the proxy. **Why make a caveat when by definition an alphabetical letter doesn't need one?** The only way this statement makes sense is if Party X originally appeared earlier in the process as a numbered RTO party and later shifted to a PIPE-only structure once the company moved closer to divesting the legacy business and cleaning up the shell. Once that shift occurred, the same counterparty became involved in legacy-related structural communications (liabilities, timing of the asset sale, shell condition, etc.), which caused them to be relabelled under the alphabetic group for that portion of the narrative. This is confirmed again in the filing: "On August 12, 2025, \[Party X\] delivered a revised LOI reflecting Sonim’s oral suggestions, **including the use of staking income to fund post-Legacy Business operations, repay outstanding debt, and reduced the exclusivity period to 30 days."** Combined with the matching industry description (AI/crypto) and the timing of Party X’s LOI, this strongly implies that Party X is the same real-world entity as Party 2 i.e. an original RTO candidate whose later proposal transitioned into a PIPE structure as the asset sale progressed. The proxy’s labeling system actually supports this interpretation once you understand how the transaction tracks are divided. I am 99.9% sure Party X = QumulusAI.
Just wanted to add some things to the original post after doing more research and re-reading the filing. * Chardan have done this before also with [SONN.](https://www.chardan.com/case-study-sonnet-biotherapeutics) It is the exact same scenario. * Filing says "On May 31, 2025, Venable communicated a revised draft of the letter of intent to Party 2. The revisions removed proposed cash adjustments, changed the suggested combined company’s board composition to include one director designated by the Company in the resulting entity". We know Mike Mulica was appointed to QAI board, so it's an interesting coincidence assuming party X = party 2 * "On August 15, 2025 ... the Company informed Party 8 that it was in the final stages of negotiating a letter of intent with another counterparty \[Party X\]." That's only 7 working days from when reps of Party X first engage SONM to finalising an LOI. Doesn't sound plausible unless some due diligence has already been done * "On or about July 24, 2025, Party 2, through its bank, communicated that it w**ould resort to an alternative strategy** and did not intend to proceed **with the RTO**". The choice of wording here is remarkable, because it specifies that the party is pursuing another strategy, whereas other failed negotiations with other parties in the filing are simply referred to as "decided not to proceed". This is in the context of the board having had a meeting the week before which discussed "uncertainties related to the proposed RTO with Party 2, **which had initially been contemplated to be executed concurrently".** That's an caveat to end the paragraph with. * Now some tin foil shit: Mike Mulica first like of QAI content on LinkedIn is of a [DiRocco interview](https://imgur.com/a/Y6QHbsE) some time 3 months ago. * We know that QAI post the same content on LinkedIn/Twitter on the same day. In this case, 1[9th August](https://imgur.com/a/ciUJFHN). * The LOI with Party X was signed on 19th August - TLDR Mike Mulica first likes QAI content on the day LOI was signed. Having spotted these extra nuggets and had more time to dwell on everything, it would appear to me that the proxy delay meant that SONM and QAI realised they were not going to have enough time to complete a traditional S4 merger. The board acknowledges in the filing the risk of it failing is high and jeopardises the asset sale. It's possible therefore QAI had to go back to the drawing board and find another way i.e. a PIPE.
If people didnt have to sell inventory wouldnt be skyrocketing. Homebuilders absolutely have to sell, as do lots of people who got laid off or RTO'd. Youre right that its not 2008 but that doesnt mean there arent real factors creating downward pressure on home prices.
The prelim 14A filed end of yesterday - at first concerning, if the RTO language is taken at face value, but then it struck me that it might be more of a procedural feint, in order to simplify the vote to get past the asset sale more easily, first?
Another RTO has hit the tower
They do, but that's conveniently satisfied by the RTO. Even if the RTO can't get finished by the compliance deadline for the equity and they need to appeal to NASDAQ for more time, they'll likely get it, given the enormous promise of this deal. NASDAQ wouldn't delist something that's essentially going to turn into QumulusAI, along with the ChEF waiting to be taken advantage of. I'm still super positive on this - my only regret is not saving some money to buy now instead of earlier.
These companies have offshore offices that manage entire tech, however they still push for RTO. AI adoption is an excuse only an excuse. All jobs are only opened offshore in tech, finance, customer support
RTO got a boost after Musks acquisition of Twitter and they so publicly shared everything that was going on. It was obviously a badly run company but it gave everyone else the excuse they needed to do the same at their company.
Honest question, what makes something like RTO a stupid ass idea?
Subprime auto loan will be our undoing, ever since 2009 it's been the biggest fear. For a moment COVID looked like it actually solved the problem by pushing so many people to remote work and increased pay for service workers that couldn't be remote. With all the RTO mandates though, we're right back into going to eventually get fucked by subprime auto territory. It might not be what kicks things off, that could be an AI bubble popping from no regulation, a market crash from AI regulation, TSMC getting bombed into rubble, new tariffs, or something else... but any of those market disruptions are highly likely, though not guaranteed to then trigger the subprime auto collapse.
Yep, and it's even worse.. These CEOs all sit on the boards of other companies. This is why stupid ass ideas like RTO, mass layoff, and force AI adoption all spread like wildfire once one company does it.
Pretty sure RTO was just a failed ploy. Anyone making that money can stay at home. The cost of having and maintaining a house plus the mortgage rate is all up everywhere. The cost of owning will only imcrease and more people will be pushed out of thr market. It's a K shaped economy and it's only going to get worse. You are right, there is no place to put money, but inflation will fix that. The Fed bowing to the pres has proven it
Referring to nomadichedgehog's most recent post, one item that's holding up the RTO is the NASDAQ clearance on the non-compliance on bid price. Looking at NASDAQ's compliance list page right now, this is still showing for Sonim, even though Sonim has passed 10 days well above the $1 threshold, so this seems like an internal/procedural holdup at NASDAQ right now.
Last nights taco bell for breakfast. Gotta fight RTO where we can 🫡
I ran a global team and had three team members in Manila. These were all women in their mid 20s with college degrees. Very sharp, organized, and always on the ball. Market rates weren’t far off from that, the lowest and highest earners on my team made 19k and 26k PHP respectively, so between $320 and $550 per month. Annualized bonuses were 20-30% and they shared with me that those all-in salaries were considered to be fairly good by local standards (perhaps for their age group). I helped out where I could by letting them charge their home internet connection and transport costs to and from the provinces to the team budget, but unfortunately that was put to an end by the company after RTO mandates came into effect. I’ve since left the company and all three women have left for better paying jobs (one stayed, but was transferred to Europe after I put in a recommendation). It was always surprising to me how exploitative some of these companies are with local wages there. Granted, it’s not as expensive as other parts of the world but salaries tend to be considerably lower than what you would expect.
If you want a good laugh, read rhe copium DD on r/opendoor about how their earnings call missing expectations is actually bullish. One user said RTO mandates will increase the share price 🤣🤣🤣
Exactly. This AI junk didn't exist until recent, and it only exists because investment companies think they can boost productivity with it These are the same companies forcing RTO because they think in person meetings and hotel cubicles also increase productivity... When it finally lands this AI slop is just a search engine upgrade and a way for AI companies to collect your data and sell it... The bubble will burst.
To anyone still following, this is definitely happening. [Q3 results](https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/272694) from SONM: *"These costs ... position us to complete key* ***transactions*** *and unlock future value. We remain focused on exploring* ***strategic opportunities*** *to monetize our Nasdaq listing and* ***maximizing shareholder value****"* TRANSACTIONS = PLURAL = LEGACY ASSET SALE & RTO Also: *"We remain committed to building on this momentum and delivering value to stockholders in the fourth quarter."* FOURTH QUARTER = SOON I believe what is holding up the deal now is twofold: the finalisation of the asset sale and the letter of compliance from NASDAQ now that the RSS has taken place. SONM needs to trade for 10 days over $1 for this letter to be issued. That then means the SEC doesn't flag the non-compliance when the S4 drops. My hope is that we will finally get the S4 circa 10th-12th November.
I think all the RTO would impact Dash too to be honest. Lot of RTO mandates for office workers. So when they used to order DD for lunch or dinner, they are eating out at lunch or bringing a lunch and picking up on the way home.
What’s your thoughts for SONM still. Ive held with about 1,000 invested before the split. My shares were converted post split. The stock price has continued to slide but there is only one option left for the company, to RTO to a company wanting to get listed. I think it may take up to a year for something to be announced and occur because from what I see, they are finalizing the sale of the assets. What are you doing, what are your thoughts, how much do you have and are you buying more?
What’s your thoughts for SONM still. Ive held with about 1,000 invested before the split. My shares were converted post split. The stock price has continued to slide but there is only one option left for the company, to RTO to a company wanting to get listed. I think it may take up to a year for something to be announced and occur because from what I see, they are finalizing the sale of the assets. What are you doing, what are your thoughts, how much do you have and are you buying more?
What’s your thoughts for SONM still. Ive held with about 1,000 invested before the split. My shares were converted post split. The stock price has continued to slide but there is only one option left for the company, to RTO to a company wanting to get listed. I think it may take up to a year for something to be announced and occur because from what I see, they are finalizing the sale of the assets. What are you doing, what are your thoughts, how much do you have and are you buying more?
Google is slow. They did RTO because the free snacks were going bad. Employees go to the office 5 days a week, each 10,000 worth of calories each then go home having accomplished nothing. It's where young people go to retire.
Amazon admitted they over hired during COVID and that enough people didn't take the RTO - go away without a severance, so here they are laying off people. This is what big publicly traded companies do. California has the highest amount of Amazon workers and Seattle (where the companies' American headquarters is) will take the biggest hits. Stockholders got to make the $$$$$$ so the board people keep their positions and $$$$$ coming in. Remember Amazon is a want....not a need. The world was here long before Amazon......The world will be here long after they are gone someday!!!!!!
Absolutely. People can shit on musk all they want but at least he knows how to pump his stock. His cult following does at least. Meanwhile Jassy doesn’t know how to do shit besides mass layoffs and RTO
Yeah I didn't work in other orgs so not sure what everyone else's experience was like. But mine was awesome. My director was definitely not frugal. He would fly in the whole org of like 50 people from around the US every month for 2 days to have a good time all paid for. He would get chastised by his leadership for this spending but we brought results so he could bend the rules for us. Of course this was all before the great layoffs and RTO. Not sure how it is now, but he was definitely a fighter for a good culture of fun with results.
SONM. Flat(ish) after RSS is good news for RTO?
My wife works for Amazon she was acquired when Amazon purchased One Medical(whom purchased her original company Iora health all in 2 years). She has worked from home for 2 years or so. She and her team have been told that starting next year they would have to work all holidays not on the weekend even Christmas also RTO. They’ve also taken 2 weeks of PTO and reduced sick time she went from 5 weeks to less than 3. F*** Amazon, when this is over I’m canceling prime.
I wonder how many of the Amazon workers that had to relocate back to a hub for RTO with no guarantees of future employment are getting laid off less than a month later? It’s okay though, at least their stock will go up. Amazon is criminal
Nooooooooo not the middle managers noooooooo who will be pushing for RTO now nooooooooooooooo
This is bad. Both my neighbors work for Amazon and are freaking out right now. One is a Snr manager and the other is a Dev Project Team Lead with each having multiple years in ther role. Each stayed strong when RTO was mandated, insisiting that they would continue to WFH with their performance goals being the criteria for evaluation. Eventually, their managers agreed and they continued to WFH. But now, with this news, they are very worried. The Snr manager who reports to the VP, who also happens to be their mother, believes they might be in trouble as the VP retires this year. The Project Team Leader , daughter of the Snr Director who leads the department is also concerned for both herself and her dad. We all live on Oahu so I figured Id invite them over for some afternoon surfing/mai tais to cheer them up.
Just drive around my neighbourhood to see Halloween decorations. Looks barren out there compared past few years. Either people are busy due to RTO or many don’t have enough disposable income anymore
Right, but the NASDAQ non-compliance is two parts, isn't it? One is the $1 price minimum (5550(a)(2)), which the RSS will easily cure, but the other is the shareholder equity min of $2.5M (5550(b)(1)), which would still have that Dec 31 deadline even after the RSS, and would still be an issue unless the RTO closes before the deadline, I think? I often feel I'm swimming out of my depth here, so I'm happy to be corrected :) Thank you again for all your hard work on this, Detective!
The Nasdaq deadline will be lifted post reverse split, as they are not in compliance with stock price. Let’s say worst case scenario, the RTO miraculously falls through. The shell will still be completing the $20M social mobile asset sale and be approved for a $500M ChEF. Which makes it an incredibly valuable shell So in theory, i could be holding for a long time. But im highly confident i can get out of this thing even if my thesis falls apart.
Thanks again for your latest post; I've been following this quietly since August, and I've got a fairly substantial position in this right now based largely on your original DD and the updates (also appreciate the various posts by NomadicHedgehog) My question is how confident should we be that the RTO could close before the extended NASDAQ deadline of Dec 31 for the $2.5M equity requirement? I know Michael Mulica has massive incentive to make this happen, but as you've mentioned about the frustration of Sonim dragging their feet up to now, even with Mulica in there driving this forward, how do we feel about Sonim moving fast enough to get through the procedural that awaits?
Hey don't, I just hit you on X but wanted to comment here in case people aren't tracking there. What are you expecting for Monday, given the guaranteed RSS and the likely RTO announcement on the same day? Seems like it might be potentially calculated to reduce the likelihood of share price tanking, by giving shareholders a reason to hold on at the same time
I am long-term positive on AMZN but short-term negative. It's been flat and bending down for a reason. The new management sucks even more than Bezos did. They are inspiring negativity. Talent is leaving and they can't acquire good talent because pay sucks. That outage was just a symptom of a bigger problem. They broke DNS because there was a security update released and they fucked it up with improper testing and the inability to fix it when things went bad. Good post on this subject here: https://old.reddit.com/r/aws/comments/1obww2z/today_is_when_amazon_brain_drain_finally_caught/ They are doing mediocre on AI. Their new hardware isn't as good as it could be and they are failing to apply AI in useful scenarios both internally and customer-facing. It's not terrible but like I said above, they have a talent failure due to RTO mandates, poor pay, low industry respect, and toxic management. Like Google, Amazon kills projects. However, Amazon has had a whole lot more failures than Google. Alexa should be a good part of their ecosystem, yet it's considered a failure? That's horrifying. I should note I work in this area. Literally and figuratively.
And there is more. There is something called Cost Centers. That's how they call their abroad offices which exists soly for the purpose of exploiting the citizens of that country. In România we have the highest inflation in Europe for more then 1 year by now and in the last 2 months the official inflation was 9.9% and 9.8%. What these companies did? Lay offs and masked lay offs through RTO. Investing in such companies with 0 care about what they actually do is like sponsoring terrorists.