Reddit Posts
I am afraid to stop contributing towards my investments to build 6 month emergency fund because of my portfolio manager
WSB and Stocks won't let me post this but here is my DD on $OPI - JPOW to the MOON
AWS Can't Compete in Cloud so Now Is Openly Attacking Microsoft
Private company I invested in looking to go public through a reverse takeover (RTO)
Mentions
That 'rebranding' history is just how Reverse Takeovers (RTO) work—they bought an empty shell (Cassel/Guild) to list quickly. The old history belongs to the shell, not the current defence tech.
That 'rebranding' history is just how Reverse Takeovers (RTO) work—they bought an empty shell (Cassel/Guild) to get on the LSE without all the extra hassle. The old history belongs to the shell, not the current defence tech. You're right about 'no sales' though—this is why we're waiting on the December commercial realisationmentioned in a previous statement. We are betting that they flip from 'R&D Phase' to 'Commercial Phase' this month. If the contracts land, the 'no product' argument dies instantly and the stock should get a re-rate
Crazy to think my employer has implemented a RTO policy - and tracks it via "badge swipes"... I have not gone to the office a single time during the entirety of 2025 and nobody has noticed yet... If they catch me I would rather get fired than be forced to go since the commute is soul draining.
That's why they forced RTO so hard, they are loosing ass on commercial property right now and dropped $3 billy on the new HQ no one wants to work at.
You’re actually right about scaling, CHAR Techs main issue is scaling fast enough. One facility isn’t enough to move the needle long term. They need multiple sites up and running, and that’s exactly what they’re lining up with the Thorold and the Lake Nipigon project. Scaling is the real challenge, not feedstock. Feedstock itself isn’t the bottleneck at all. Ontario produces way more forestry residuals, sawmill waste, and construction wood than CHAR could ever process. There’s an insane surplus of clean biomass that’s literally being landfilled or burned right now. The risk is how fast they can replicate Thorold, not whether they’ll run out of material. The actual demand side is the opposite of risky, it’s basically unlimited. Steel producers are all under carbon tax pressure, regulatory pressure, and customer pressure to decarbonize. Same with RNG, utilities are required to add RNG into their pipeline mix for compliance. So the market is already there waiting. CHAR’s issue is not finding buyers, it’s building capacity fast enough to supply them. On the technicals: the chart looks like it’s been down since day one, but that’s because of the reverse takeover years ago of a shell company they merged with. After that, the early price action was hype with nothing physical built yet. Now that Thorold is almost completed and actual commercial production is about to start, the stock is finally entering a phase where price should reflect fundamentals instead of the old RTO overhang. Scaling quickly is the real challenge, not demand or feedstock. And the technicals only start to matter now that the company is transforming from hype to real revenue and production.
He cares more about RTO than anything else
It is, although what is slightly troubling is that party X has been renamed to party 9 in that same filing (but interestingly remains as party X in the proxy). Currently trying to wrap my head around why they would suddenly go from an alphabetical identifier to a numerical identifier and whether this still means party 2 could = party 9. My best guess is that the legal entities for a PIPE and an RTO must be different. In this case, perhaps the PIPE investor might be QAI Moon LLC whereas the RTO target may have been Global Digital Holdings or vice versa.
RTO is dumb. These execs could steal our money by letting us gamble from home, instead I have to better manage my liquidity when I’m stuck in an office
Yeah, I went all-in before the RSS because I was worried the RTO would drop at the same time... really wish I hadn't, but we make our choices :) This whole thesis has been fun to play along with since Aug, but yeah - definitely not for the faint of heart lol
The predictions made both myself and doot were based on the information we had at the time. SONM did not make it public that they had pivoted from an S4 RTO to a synthetic RTO. If you can’t appreciate how that affects the timing of filings and how the transaction unfolds you can’t be helped. The 8k has to be filed within 4 days of the shareholder vote, and the shareholder vote must happen before 13th January.
One more thing I've spotted on a 5th reading. One of the confusing things about the proxy, as I noted in the main body of my post, is that certain parties are assigned alphabetic identifiers (Party A, B, X, etc.) while others are assigned numeric identifiers (Party 1, 2, 4, etc.). The key to understanding this is that the labeling system does not identify parties by identity or deal likelihood, but by the type of transaction track they were involved in at the time the events occurred. According to the proxy, alphabetical labels are used when a counterparty’s communications “involved the Legacy Business”, which does not mean the party is interested in *buying* or *operating* the rugged-device division. Instead, it means their proposal required evaluating how the legacy business would be separated, what liabilities would remain in the public shell, and how the structure of the asset sale would affect them. This includes parties contemplating a capital infusion or PIPE after the asset sale, because such investors must understand the post-sale condition of the shell. These are “Legacy-involved” communications, and therefore alphabetic. Numeric labels, on the other hand, represent parties engaged in non-Legacy Business strategic transactions, including reverse mergers, change-of-control discussions, or PIPEs associated with bringing a new operating business into the shell. For example, Party 4 is numbered even though they contemplated a PIPE, because their PIPE was tied to an RTO/crypto-treasury strategy, not to the legacy business separation. This distinction becomes crucial when we examine the language used for Party X. The proxy states that on August 8, 2025, Party "**extended a letter of intent contemplating a PIPE transaction RATHER THAN A CHANGE OF CONTROL OR REVERSE MERGER**”. This phrase is extremely telling. The only reason to say “rather than a reverse merger” is if the party had PREVIOUSLY been involved in discussions about a reverse merger or change of control. But these are precisely the types of discussions associated with the numeric (non-Legacy) track, not the alphabetic one. Alphabet parties, by definition, are not introduced as RTO candidates in the proxy. **Why make a caveat when by definition an alphabetical letter doesn't need one?** The only way this statement makes sense is if Party X originally appeared earlier in the process as a numbered RTO party and later shifted to a PIPE-only structure once the company moved closer to divesting the legacy business and cleaning up the shell. Once that shift occurred, the same counterparty became involved in legacy-related structural communications (liabilities, timing of the asset sale, shell condition, etc.), which caused them to be relabelled under the alphabetic group for that portion of the narrative. This is confirmed again in the filing: "On August 12, 2025, \[Party X\] delivered a revised LOI reflecting Sonim’s oral suggestions, **including the use of staking income to fund post-Legacy Business operations, repay outstanding debt, and reduced the exclusivity period to 30 days."** Combined with the matching industry description (AI/crypto) and the timing of Party X’s LOI, this strongly implies that Party X is the same real-world entity as Party 2 i.e. an original RTO candidate whose later proposal transitioned into a PIPE structure as the asset sale progressed. The proxy’s labeling system actually supports this interpretation once you understand how the transaction tracks are divided. I am 99.9% sure Party X = QumulusAI.
Just wanted to add some things to the original post after doing more research and re-reading the filing. * Chardan have done this before also with [SONN.](https://www.chardan.com/case-study-sonnet-biotherapeutics) It is the exact same scenario. * Filing says "On May 31, 2025, Venable communicated a revised draft of the letter of intent to Party 2. The revisions removed proposed cash adjustments, changed the suggested combined company’s board composition to include one director designated by the Company in the resulting entity". We know Mike Mulica was appointed to QAI board, so it's an interesting coincidence assuming party X = party 2 * "On August 15, 2025 ... the Company informed Party 8 that it was in the final stages of negotiating a letter of intent with another counterparty \[Party X\]." That's only 7 working days from when reps of Party X first engage SONM to finalising an LOI. Doesn't sound plausible unless some due diligence has already been done * "On or about July 24, 2025, Party 2, through its bank, communicated that it w**ould resort to an alternative strategy** and did not intend to proceed **with the RTO**". The choice of wording here is remarkable, because it specifies that the party is pursuing another strategy, whereas other failed negotiations with other parties in the filing are simply referred to as "decided not to proceed". This is in the context of the board having had a meeting the week before which discussed "uncertainties related to the proposed RTO with Party 2, **which had initially been contemplated to be executed concurrently".** That's an caveat to end the paragraph with. * Now some tin foil shit: Mike Mulica first like of QAI content on LinkedIn is of a [DiRocco interview](https://imgur.com/a/Y6QHbsE) some time 3 months ago. * We know that QAI post the same content on LinkedIn/Twitter on the same day. In this case, 1[9th August](https://imgur.com/a/ciUJFHN). * The LOI with Party X was signed on 19th August - TLDR Mike Mulica first likes QAI content on the day LOI was signed. Having spotted these extra nuggets and had more time to dwell on everything, it would appear to me that the proxy delay meant that SONM and QAI realised they were not going to have enough time to complete a traditional S4 merger. The board acknowledges in the filing the risk of it failing is high and jeopardises the asset sale. It's possible therefore QAI had to go back to the drawing board and find another way i.e. a PIPE.
If people didnt have to sell inventory wouldnt be skyrocketing. Homebuilders absolutely have to sell, as do lots of people who got laid off or RTO'd. Youre right that its not 2008 but that doesnt mean there arent real factors creating downward pressure on home prices.
The prelim 14A filed end of yesterday - at first concerning, if the RTO language is taken at face value, but then it struck me that it might be more of a procedural feint, in order to simplify the vote to get past the asset sale more easily, first?
Another RTO has hit the tower
They do, but that's conveniently satisfied by the RTO. Even if the RTO can't get finished by the compliance deadline for the equity and they need to appeal to NASDAQ for more time, they'll likely get it, given the enormous promise of this deal. NASDAQ wouldn't delist something that's essentially going to turn into QumulusAI, along with the ChEF waiting to be taken advantage of. I'm still super positive on this - my only regret is not saving some money to buy now instead of earlier.
These companies have offshore offices that manage entire tech, however they still push for RTO. AI adoption is an excuse only an excuse. All jobs are only opened offshore in tech, finance, customer support
RTO got a boost after Musks acquisition of Twitter and they so publicly shared everything that was going on. It was obviously a badly run company but it gave everyone else the excuse they needed to do the same at their company.
Honest question, what makes something like RTO a stupid ass idea?
Subprime auto loan will be our undoing, ever since 2009 it's been the biggest fear. For a moment COVID looked like it actually solved the problem by pushing so many people to remote work and increased pay for service workers that couldn't be remote. With all the RTO mandates though, we're right back into going to eventually get fucked by subprime auto territory. It might not be what kicks things off, that could be an AI bubble popping from no regulation, a market crash from AI regulation, TSMC getting bombed into rubble, new tariffs, or something else... but any of those market disruptions are highly likely, though not guaranteed to then trigger the subprime auto collapse.
Yep, and it's even worse.. These CEOs all sit on the boards of other companies. This is why stupid ass ideas like RTO, mass layoff, and force AI adoption all spread like wildfire once one company does it.
Pretty sure RTO was just a failed ploy. Anyone making that money can stay at home. The cost of having and maintaining a house plus the mortgage rate is all up everywhere. The cost of owning will only imcrease and more people will be pushed out of thr market. It's a K shaped economy and it's only going to get worse. You are right, there is no place to put money, but inflation will fix that. The Fed bowing to the pres has proven it
Referring to nomadichedgehog's most recent post, one item that's holding up the RTO is the NASDAQ clearance on the non-compliance on bid price. Looking at NASDAQ's compliance list page right now, this is still showing for Sonim, even though Sonim has passed 10 days well above the $1 threshold, so this seems like an internal/procedural holdup at NASDAQ right now.
Last nights taco bell for breakfast. Gotta fight RTO where we can 🫡
I ran a global team and had three team members in Manila. These were all women in their mid 20s with college degrees. Very sharp, organized, and always on the ball. Market rates weren’t far off from that, the lowest and highest earners on my team made 19k and 26k PHP respectively, so between $320 and $550 per month. Annualized bonuses were 20-30% and they shared with me that those all-in salaries were considered to be fairly good by local standards (perhaps for their age group). I helped out where I could by letting them charge their home internet connection and transport costs to and from the provinces to the team budget, but unfortunately that was put to an end by the company after RTO mandates came into effect. I’ve since left the company and all three women have left for better paying jobs (one stayed, but was transferred to Europe after I put in a recommendation). It was always surprising to me how exploitative some of these companies are with local wages there. Granted, it’s not as expensive as other parts of the world but salaries tend to be considerably lower than what you would expect.
If you want a good laugh, read rhe copium DD on r/opendoor about how their earnings call missing expectations is actually bullish. One user said RTO mandates will increase the share price 🤣🤣🤣
Exactly. This AI junk didn't exist until recent, and it only exists because investment companies think they can boost productivity with it These are the same companies forcing RTO because they think in person meetings and hotel cubicles also increase productivity... When it finally lands this AI slop is just a search engine upgrade and a way for AI companies to collect your data and sell it... The bubble will burst.
To anyone still following, this is definitely happening. [Q3 results](https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/272694) from SONM: *"These costs ... position us to complete key* ***transactions*** *and unlock future value. We remain focused on exploring* ***strategic opportunities*** *to monetize our Nasdaq listing and* ***maximizing shareholder value****"* TRANSACTIONS = PLURAL = LEGACY ASSET SALE & RTO Also: *"We remain committed to building on this momentum and delivering value to stockholders in the fourth quarter."* FOURTH QUARTER = SOON I believe what is holding up the deal now is twofold: the finalisation of the asset sale and the letter of compliance from NASDAQ now that the RSS has taken place. SONM needs to trade for 10 days over $1 for this letter to be issued. That then means the SEC doesn't flag the non-compliance when the S4 drops. My hope is that we will finally get the S4 circa 10th-12th November.
I think all the RTO would impact Dash too to be honest. Lot of RTO mandates for office workers. So when they used to order DD for lunch or dinner, they are eating out at lunch or bringing a lunch and picking up on the way home.
What’s your thoughts for SONM still. Ive held with about 1,000 invested before the split. My shares were converted post split. The stock price has continued to slide but there is only one option left for the company, to RTO to a company wanting to get listed. I think it may take up to a year for something to be announced and occur because from what I see, they are finalizing the sale of the assets. What are you doing, what are your thoughts, how much do you have and are you buying more?
What’s your thoughts for SONM still. Ive held with about 1,000 invested before the split. My shares were converted post split. The stock price has continued to slide but there is only one option left for the company, to RTO to a company wanting to get listed. I think it may take up to a year for something to be announced and occur because from what I see, they are finalizing the sale of the assets. What are you doing, what are your thoughts, how much do you have and are you buying more?
What’s your thoughts for SONM still. Ive held with about 1,000 invested before the split. My shares were converted post split. The stock price has continued to slide but there is only one option left for the company, to RTO to a company wanting to get listed. I think it may take up to a year for something to be announced and occur because from what I see, they are finalizing the sale of the assets. What are you doing, what are your thoughts, how much do you have and are you buying more?
Google is slow. They did RTO because the free snacks were going bad. Employees go to the office 5 days a week, each 10,000 worth of calories each then go home having accomplished nothing. It's where young people go to retire.
Amazon admitted they over hired during COVID and that enough people didn't take the RTO - go away without a severance, so here they are laying off people. This is what big publicly traded companies do. California has the highest amount of Amazon workers and Seattle (where the companies' American headquarters is) will take the biggest hits. Stockholders got to make the $$$$$$ so the board people keep their positions and $$$$$ coming in. Remember Amazon is a want....not a need. The world was here long before Amazon......The world will be here long after they are gone someday!!!!!!
Absolutely. People can shit on musk all they want but at least he knows how to pump his stock. His cult following does at least. Meanwhile Jassy doesn’t know how to do shit besides mass layoffs and RTO
Yeah I didn't work in other orgs so not sure what everyone else's experience was like. But mine was awesome. My director was definitely not frugal. He would fly in the whole org of like 50 people from around the US every month for 2 days to have a good time all paid for. He would get chastised by his leadership for this spending but we brought results so he could bend the rules for us. Of course this was all before the great layoffs and RTO. Not sure how it is now, but he was definitely a fighter for a good culture of fun with results.
SONM. Flat(ish) after RSS is good news for RTO?
My wife works for Amazon she was acquired when Amazon purchased One Medical(whom purchased her original company Iora health all in 2 years). She has worked from home for 2 years or so. She and her team have been told that starting next year they would have to work all holidays not on the weekend even Christmas also RTO. They’ve also taken 2 weeks of PTO and reduced sick time she went from 5 weeks to less than 3. F*** Amazon, when this is over I’m canceling prime.
I wonder how many of the Amazon workers that had to relocate back to a hub for RTO with no guarantees of future employment are getting laid off less than a month later? It’s okay though, at least their stock will go up. Amazon is criminal
Nooooooooo not the middle managers noooooooo who will be pushing for RTO now nooooooooooooooo
This is bad. Both my neighbors work for Amazon and are freaking out right now. One is a Snr manager and the other is a Dev Project Team Lead with each having multiple years in ther role. Each stayed strong when RTO was mandated, insisiting that they would continue to WFH with their performance goals being the criteria for evaluation. Eventually, their managers agreed and they continued to WFH. But now, with this news, they are very worried. The Snr manager who reports to the VP, who also happens to be their mother, believes they might be in trouble as the VP retires this year. The Project Team Leader , daughter of the Snr Director who leads the department is also concerned for both herself and her dad. We all live on Oahu so I figured Id invite them over for some afternoon surfing/mai tais to cheer them up.
Just drive around my neighbourhood to see Halloween decorations. Looks barren out there compared past few years. Either people are busy due to RTO or many don’t have enough disposable income anymore
Right, but the NASDAQ non-compliance is two parts, isn't it? One is the $1 price minimum (5550(a)(2)), which the RSS will easily cure, but the other is the shareholder equity min of $2.5M (5550(b)(1)), which would still have that Dec 31 deadline even after the RSS, and would still be an issue unless the RTO closes before the deadline, I think? I often feel I'm swimming out of my depth here, so I'm happy to be corrected :) Thank you again for all your hard work on this, Detective!
The Nasdaq deadline will be lifted post reverse split, as they are not in compliance with stock price. Let’s say worst case scenario, the RTO miraculously falls through. The shell will still be completing the $20M social mobile asset sale and be approved for a $500M ChEF. Which makes it an incredibly valuable shell So in theory, i could be holding for a long time. But im highly confident i can get out of this thing even if my thesis falls apart.
Thanks again for your latest post; I've been following this quietly since August, and I've got a fairly substantial position in this right now based largely on your original DD and the updates (also appreciate the various posts by NomadicHedgehog) My question is how confident should we be that the RTO could close before the extended NASDAQ deadline of Dec 31 for the $2.5M equity requirement? I know Michael Mulica has massive incentive to make this happen, but as you've mentioned about the frustration of Sonim dragging their feet up to now, even with Mulica in there driving this forward, how do we feel about Sonim moving fast enough to get through the procedural that awaits?
Hey don't, I just hit you on X but wanted to comment here in case people aren't tracking there. What are you expecting for Monday, given the guaranteed RSS and the likely RTO announcement on the same day? Seems like it might be potentially calculated to reduce the likelihood of share price tanking, by giving shareholders a reason to hold on at the same time
I am long-term positive on AMZN but short-term negative. It's been flat and bending down for a reason. The new management sucks even more than Bezos did. They are inspiring negativity. Talent is leaving and they can't acquire good talent because pay sucks. That outage was just a symptom of a bigger problem. They broke DNS because there was a security update released and they fucked it up with improper testing and the inability to fix it when things went bad. Good post on this subject here: https://old.reddit.com/r/aws/comments/1obww2z/today_is_when_amazon_brain_drain_finally_caught/ They are doing mediocre on AI. Their new hardware isn't as good as it could be and they are failing to apply AI in useful scenarios both internally and customer-facing. It's not terrible but like I said above, they have a talent failure due to RTO mandates, poor pay, low industry respect, and toxic management. Like Google, Amazon kills projects. However, Amazon has had a whole lot more failures than Google. Alexa should be a good part of their ecosystem, yet it's considered a failure? That's horrifying. I should note I work in this area. Literally and figuratively.
And there is more. There is something called Cost Centers. That's how they call their abroad offices which exists soly for the purpose of exploiting the citizens of that country. In România we have the highest inflation in Europe for more then 1 year by now and in the last 2 months the official inflation was 9.9% and 9.8%. What these companies did? Lay offs and masked lay offs through RTO. Investing in such companies with 0 care about what they actually do is like sponsoring terrorists.
Hey Doot. Do you have any thoughts after this recent 8-K indicating the RSS? It definitely looks like they're setting up for something like an RTO, but also potentially diluting shareholders into oblivion in the process.
FWIW, I had GPT compile some data on companies that underwent a RSS prior to RTO. Shell shareholders typically did not do well following RTO though there are exceptions: # 📈 Aggregate Findings (based on 50+ historical cases) * **Average 1-month return post-RTO:** –25% * **Average 3-month return post-RTO:** –45% * **Average 6-month return post-RTO:** –60% * **Exceptions:** SPACs and a few high-profile tech or resource RTOs that had institutional backing sometimes *rose 100–300%* (e.g., DraftKings, Tilray, Bitfarms). The traits of the companies who did well post-RTO were ones with strong sector tailwinds (e.g. Crypto, Cannabis), real operations/revenue, and coincided with bull markets. You can make the argument that QAI has the traits of past "winners".
Any update on the RTO news? Should have dropped already or?
Why would Qumulus do a takeover of a shitty shell company and go public under your thesis? What's the point? Why was an increase of up to a billion total shares approved? If you anwser both questions you'll understand why the ratio of the RS mattered for this play. That said, it's still up to how much the new company will be priced. But don't say the ratio of RS is irrelevant because hundreds of millions of new stock will be issued as soon as the RTO is finished in order for Qumulus to get funding which is the point of going public.
The risk is indeed in the authorised common shares and ChEF, but I don't agree the existing float was smoked regardless. When the board shot down the Orbic takeover offer in the summer at $3.60/share on the basis of the RTO being a better avenue to bring "share holder value" to SONM shareholders, that provided a pre-RSS baseline of what current SONM shares are worth in the new QAI company. This is where you have to start getting into all sorts of calculations and speculations regarding QAI valuation and the amount of dilution current SONM shareholders will face. The thing is, it is entirely possible that SONM management didn't expect the massive sell off when rejecting the orbic offer. Perhaps they thought QAI deal would've gone through much faster but there have been delays. Perhaps they thought we'd be at $3, not under $1. Perhaps they really don't give a fuck about existing SONM shareholders despite their fudiciary duties and what they say otherwise. One thing is for sure and that is this RSS ratio seems ridiculously excessive. It signals to me that either they need a lot of headroom because they need to buy more time for dominoes to fall with QAI, or QAI have SONM board by the balls: "*we will only take you over and give you (the board) the options and warrants in QAI (something that is common in these types of mergers) if you dilute existing SONM shareholders to hell".* At the moment, it looks like there's only two options. QAI is a monster company on a level that no one can anticipate or see something, or the SONM board is fraudulent.
Op' post? Doesn't change the obvious point that 18:1 rs is bad because the thesis HERE is you are not buying current ownership but "future" ownership. As for share count currently it's at 18.52M pre split. Per the 8k filling from yesterday, an increase of up to 1b shares was approved for dillution if the takeover is successful. 300-500m new shares makes sense for a big data center company. They also don't want to get a low price because that stops big funds from investing. But by all means, believe what you want. Maybe when Qumulus takes over they won't issue new shares and just become a public company for funsies. Maybe they just issue 100m shares and people are willing to buy them at 50 dollars per share... And before you ask where these numbers come from I recommend thinking about the goal of a RTO. Qumulus wants funding.
The RS ratio should not affect post takeover price because after the takeover the valuation will be entirely for the new company. That goes both ways. The percentage you'll own is the same, but the price you paid is not the same! Because of the split... You have ALREADY paid 15-16 dollars for each stock you'll own after the takeover. If the reverse split was 5:1 like OP was expecting you'd only be paying 4-5 dollars for the exact same stock. So now that you know you've paid 16 dollars for the stock (and not 0.9 dollars) you have to hope the price is higher than 16 after the takeover. Assuming 350million shares outstanding total you need at least a 5.5 billion valuation for Qumulus (or whatever the RTO target is). Again if the split was 5:1 you'd make money even if the valuation was "just" 2 billions.
I don't have much experience in US markets and listing rules, and only understand basic RTO theory but if the market value of SONM holdings will be $17.5m out of $300m, then there is a profitable trade available here at any price under $17.5m MCAP right? Then you combine this with the current market conditions for AI companies on US markets and there's a strong argument for fairly rapid appreciation in SP soon after the ticker relists?
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the asset sale needs to close before they can do the RTO. The 8-K shows the deal as still pending (but confirmed as in progress?), so we just have to wait for that to happen before we can expect any announcement of the RTO? Also, I’ve been seeing people talk about the reverse split ratio being bad. Maybe it’s not favorable given the optics, but as far as the resulting share of QAI that current SONM shareholders would get, if the deal is anything like that of VINC and we assume SONM will stick with the numbers from the previously filed LOI, SONM will be $17.5m of $300m (total mcap of QAI) so it doesn’t really matter how many shares of SONM there are and what price they are? There will be roughly 1m shares of SONM after the reverse split, and with the RTO there will be about 17m shares of QAI. 1m shares of SONM after split / 0.05833 (% share of SONM holders of the new company after RTO) ≈ 17m shares of QAI ≈ $17-18 per QAI share (300m valuation / 17m shares)? VS Let’s say SONM did 1-10 reverse split, ≈ 18m shares / 10 = 1,800,000 shares / 0.0583 ≈ 30,800,000 shares of QAI. 300m valuation / 30,800,000 shares ≈ $9-10 per share of QAI So the percentages remain the same, and the valuations remain the same, regardless of what price SONM shares are and how many there are before RTO? Am I missing something here?
I wish I wasn’t broke constantly. Haven’t been able to contribute anything this year to my 401k. Actually I had to take out a loan against it and drain most of my Roth IRA after our baby was born. It’s too expensive. Jobs are trying to force RTO and cut salary by $20k or more. IT jobs are paying what they did back in 2019 but stuff is way more expensive now.
Gotta assume SONM knows the RS and eventual RTO will be beneficial, otherwise they wouldn't be helping QAI with the RTO in the first place.
Typically a RS tanks share price because it's a sign the company's not doing well but in this case it's in preparation for a RTO. I don't think a RS necessarily inherently tanks share price... either way I'm along for the ride.
Can I ask why a higher ratio is bad? My impression is, if the RTO terms are anything similar to that of VINC, the shell shareholders will get roughly 5-6% of the QAI regardless. Why does a higher ratio limit the upside if the percentage share is the same regardless of the price?
So I know 1-18 is less than ideal, but even if QAI (assuming they're the RTO party) takes over we still have a pretty decent upside from current levels right? SONM is still o lying floating around 12m-ish market cap? Maybe im underthinking it, first time getting invoked in something like this. Very small position, 500 shares.
The 8k that came out 15 minutes ago says Mike Mulica was appointed to the Qumulus AI board. The RTO proxy statement hasn't been filed but that's pretty as much as close as you will get to a definitive statement that QAI is the target. The bigger concern at the moment is the 1-18 RSS ratio.
Is the thesis confirmed though? It mentions that Michael Mulica serves on the board of "Global Digital Holdings" doing business as Qumulus Ai. Does not name Qumulus as Sonim's RTO target as far as I understand
SONM. Let's see if they announce more details of the RTO
They have up to 4 days to announce the RSS ratio, so Wednesday latest. But the logical thing to do is announce Qumulus RTO vote date immediately after, and would be silly to do that on Wednesday. So. I think we get RSS ratio results today or Monday after hours, with RTO proxy statement by Tuesday latest.
I should have known. So the expectation is RSS announcement comes sometime tonight and the RTO from Qumulis is Monday. I assume if no news by Monday morning, this will likely tank?
So what’s the play here? Buying calls and selling options after they announce the RTO and or buying a boatload of shares and hope after the RTO it is turned into an extremely profitable business and cash in? All seems like speculation, but your information is pretty on point and has me feeling a bit tempted to jump into this.
Yes you're right, and I should have been more clear with my language - the RSS vote was yesterday, it hasn't actually come into effect yet. Yes, the 350 mil share sale was to the financier but I was still making the point that if they were on the open market we would know about it. As for the ratio, yes there is a range in place but anything more than 1:10 or 1:15 max then the SONM will likely destroy all remaining SONM shareholder value and would then not be able to justify shooting down the $3.60/share offer from Orbic earlier in the summer. The ratio needs to be high enough to make Qumulus look IPO ready while justifying rejecting that offer. My guess is we will land somewhere between 1:5 and 1:10. Yes common stock is going up for PIPE investors/enabling financing, that doesn't mean the share pool will be bigger than the 350 million. And yes, RTO news will follow the news on the meeting. I expect we will get that news tonight after hours then RTO news on Monday before market opens.
He likes that the CEO has implemented RTO (great for employee morale, I'm sure!) and posts random "bullish" tweets all day. Oh and the CEO said they're going to cancel a bunch of their SaaS contracts and build out the tools in house....
12 mil free float. 500mil financing agreement. 350mil share sale was filed, but to the financier not on the open market, at market price minus 3.5%. The RSS hasn’t happened. It was voted on yesterday. Special meeting for stockholders to do a 1:2 to 1:30 RSS and 10x the common stock. From 100mil to 1bil. This took me 5 minutes. Maybe the possible RTO news comes out, but the shareholder meeting press release will be first.
I expect an announcement on the 20th so that the RSS news (which we will likely get AH today) will be overshadowed/forgotten by the RTO news (via the proxy statement). Regarding that comment 27 days ago, I'll copy-paste what I said to someone else on another sub: "If you read that comment carefully, I said 't*he timing here is razor-thin, and i would expect choppy waters for the stock price during this time*.' Since I made that comment, bridge financing via Chardan has been confirmed. The stock price has stayed the same/moved sideways. The time lag between filing the RSS vote and the actual RSS (today) has elapsed, so the risk of a sell off before the RTO is now no longer, as Qumulus will likely be announced on Monday. Finally, since making that comment, Qumulus AI announced 500 million in funding this week, they have appointed a new CEO who did brilliant at Applied Digital and Mike Mulica continues to like and share Qumulus AI content. As Seth Klarman says, value investing is about being able to change your view as the thesis/story changes. I've been consistent with looking at things again in a fresh way in the face of new information each time."
So buy SONM now and sell Qumulus at $7-$10 after RTO, if they supercede your expectations on what do you hold?
Their debt is tiny, and what's left of it will be wiped clean from the asset sale to Social Mobile. Again, this is/almost a clean shell, which it needs to be for the RTO. Go and read my post.
I’ve been following this since your post a month or so again. When do we think the announcement about the intended target is coming now that the RTO occurred. Monday?
Okay, so the play isn’t necessarily in Qumulus, but on the news of the RTO and the run up following that and up to the RTO. I don’t think you answered my question about the risk of a sell off (in shares of Qumulus) once the RTO is finished though. Are you anticipating a run up after the RTO announcement and just selling right before the RTO or intending to hold through after that too?
Okay, so the play isn’t necessarily in Qumulus, but on the news of the RTO and the run up following that and up to the RTO. I don’t think you answered my question about the risk of a sell off (in shares of Qumulus) once the RTO is finished though. Are you anticipating a run up after the RTO announcement and just selling right before the RTO or intending to hold through after that too?
SONM have to announce the RTO target via proxy statement. When they file that statement, the SEC has 10 days to respond. If SEC has no comments, SONM then need to file a definitive statement stating the exact day of the RTO vote and must give 20 days' notice. That means there will be a 30-day lag between SONM announcing the RTO target (which the market is currently asleep to) and the RTO actually happening. So to answer your question, there will be a 30-day run up to "IPO" prices. You can either get in now, or you can get in once the market has already piled in and pay a premium. You decide.
So the point of this (if anything) is to basically get in at “IPO” prices then? What’s the risk of a sell off if the thesis is true and the RTO goes off without a hitch? Why buy SONM now as opposed to shares of Qumulus when the RTO is actually finished?
Looking at oklo's jobs page, almost every open position is remote. [https://job-boards.greenhouse.io/oklo](https://job-boards.greenhouse.io/oklo) My company employs about 200 people. Our HQ has 6 desks, because nobody actually travels to the HQ location to work. So a picture of a tiny HQ doesn't tell me anything in 2025. Especially in silicon valley, where RTO has mostly collapsed. We've all been working from home for 5 years now, and the local commuter rail agencies have the dwindling ridership numbers to prove it.
I'm in this for months now but it's mind boggling to me that price is supressed so much, even now. No info about asset sale or RTO before RSS meeting means that we can expect max pain from it. I can't grasp how it may be beneficial to anyone involved from SONM side of the deal. 1:10 will be the best case scenario. If Monday after RSS there will be no significant developement this can be painfull to watch and would require nice mental gimnastics to stay in line with the bigger Pictures.
Still holding. RSS vote is on Thursday. I then expect RTO news soon after - presumably Monday 20th October.
Any update on what’s going on or a potential timeline of when we expect things to happen? It seems like after the Chardan financing, there’s more breathing room for the RTO to happen.
CXAI, SONM, WWR, DVLT, NUAI CXAI - workplace AI, and has a strong partnership with Google. Solid financials and exceeded EPS expectations for the last three quarters. Expecting the same for Q3. “The company achieved its largest ARR renewal with a Fortune 50 client and expanded its strategic partnership with Google Cloud for Agentic AI technologies.” - https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CXAI/cx-app-inc- On Oct 10, Wolverine Asset Mgmt purchased over 1m+ shares of CXAI, effectively making them the biggest institutional holder — bigger than Vanguard! Very bullish! https://whalewisdom.com/filing/wolverine-asset-management-llc-sc-13ga-2025-10-10-cxai SONM - Read this SONM update from this OP. SONM has signed a LOI for reverse take over (RTO) with an unnamed full stack AI factory provider, and the theory is that they’re QumulusAI. QAI also secured $500m in funding recently. This is an early bet, but very convincing- https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/s/ui06oaPIpQ
CXAI, SONM, WWR, DVLT, NUAI CXAI - workplace AI, and has a strong partnership with Google. Solid financials and exceeded EPS expectations for the last three quarters. Expecting the same for Q3. “The company achieved its largest ARR renewal with a Fortune 50 client and expanded its strategic partnership with Google Cloud for Agentic AI technologies.” - https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CXAI/cx-app-inc- On Oct 10, Wolverine Asset Mgmt purchased over 1m+ shares, effectively making them the biggest institutional holder! Very bullish! SONM - Read this SONM update from this OP. SONM has signed a LOI for reverse take over (RTO) with an unnamed full stack AI factory provider, and the theory is that they’re QumulusAI. QAI also secured $500m in funding recently. This is an early bet, but very convincing- https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/s/ui06oaPIpQ
CXAI, SONM, WWR, DVLT, NUAI CXAI - workplace AI, and has a strong partnership with Google. Solid financials and exceeded EPS expectations for the last three quarters. Expecting the same for Q3. “The company achieved its largest ARR renewal with a Fortune 50 client and expanded its strategic partnership with Google Cloud for Agentic AI technologies.” - https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CXAI/cx-app-inc- SONM - Read this SONM update from this OP. SONM has signed a LOI for reverse take over (RTO) with an unnamed full stack AI factory provider, and the theory is that they’re QumulusAI. QAI also secured $500m in funding recently. This is an early bet, but very convincing- https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/s/ui06oaPIpQ
Looks new, dated yesterday. Maybe they’re preparing for the RTO and anticipating that people will rush in to buy this.
CXAI, SONM, WWR, DVLT, NUAI CXAI - workplace AI, and has a strong partnership with Google. Solid financials and exceeded EPS expectations for the last three quarters. Expecting the same for Q3. “The company achieved its largest ARR renewal with a Fortune 50 client and expanded its strategic partnership with Google Cloud for Agentic AI technologies.” - https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CXAI/cx-app-inc- SONM - Read this SONM update from this OP. SONM has signed a LOI for reverse take over (RTO) with an unnamed full stack AI factory provider, and the theory is that they’re QumulusAI. QAI also secured $500m in funding recently. This is an early bet, but very convincing- https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/s/ui06oaPIpQ
CXAI, SONM, WWR, DVLT, NUAI CXAI - workplace AI, and has a strong partnership with Google. Solid financials and exceeded EPS expectations for the last three quarters. Expecting the same for Q3. “The company achieved its largest ARR renewal with a Fortune 50 client and expanded its strategic partnership with Google Cloud for Agentic AI technologies.” - https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CXAI/cx-app-inc- SONM - Read this SONM update from this OP. SONM has signed a LOI for reverse take over (RTO) with an unnamed full stack AI factory provider, and the theory is that they’re QumulusAI. QAI also secured $500m in funding recently. This is an early bet, but very convincing- https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/s/ui06oaPIpQ
Hahaha, thanks for the recognition! I’m just spreading the good vibes and want everyone to get in early and win, especially if they’re still under the radar. Check out SONM as well. That’s my next bet. Read this SONM update from this OP. SONM has signed a LOI for reverse take over (RTO) with an unnamed full stack AI factory provider, and the theory is that they’re QumulusAI. QAI also secured $500m in funding recently. This is an early bet, but very convincing- https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/s/ui06oaPIpQ
Qumulus AI just got [500 million in financing](https://www.newswire.com/news/qumulusai-secures-500m-non-recourse-financing-facility-through-usd-ai-to) Regarding price movement, zoom out. It's been going sideways for a month now. I wouldn't pay much attention to short term movements, the market is completely asleep to this merger. The RTO is definitely happening. The question is how much of the upside will be wiped out by the RSS (if at all).
Why would that matter? It’s still fundamentally dilutive. If they sell pre RTO (to say double shares outstanding, which would be about enough to pay down the debt) and then complete the RTO at the same stated 17.5m valuation, then our $0.7 shares are now worth $0.5 in the new $300m company. For us to break even we would need a bounce to a $500m valuation. The hope is that the $300m is not a real number but a deal number, and Qumulus is really worth $5b
I’ve been following this for a while and generally buy into the thesis. What I’m struggling with is understanding the risk–reward balance. If this goes ahead, I’m not sure what the real upside potential looks like. A) What’s the expected valuation range for the new company - somewhere between $300M and $1B? Im not sure how to understand current NAV vs % in acquiring company. B) The filing mentioned the percentage of the new company SONM would own (around 5%, if I remember correctly), but what about existing shareholder equity - could that be diluted or wiped out through a bad RTO share split? C) Given the recent institutional buy-ins, are we (retail shareholders) aligned with them? In other words, if things go south, they’d take a hit too, right? Im a couple of edibles deep, so my brain is struggling to understand what the upside looks like? Is it to current NAV price (which is multi bagger) or is it bigger eg x% of $1b company?
Almost every company has badge readers. What innovations could they add to RTO solutions?
CLIR and CXAI CXAI is a workplace AI company and they offer solutions for companies mandating RTO. They’re hosting the San Francisco Tech week today (Oct 7), along with Google Cloud Executives!
S-1 specifically mentions the anticipated RTO currently in process. IMO this is an amazing asymmetric bet
So from what I understand SONM should file the RTO proxy any day before the 16th most likely today AH or Friday AH?
The RTO will be baked into the price by the time the vote happens. As we saw before, there was no reaction whatsoever to the RSS preliminary filings. Im choosing to see the forest for the trees. The company that is performing this RTO has $500M in GPUs secured to expand operations significantly and already fully financed to boot. Potential speed bumps along the way are fine with me.
You know I've been following this closely since the first day you posted and I agree with you on almost everything. Where we diverse is on the risk of the RSS. They have yet to file proxy and definitive statements on the RTO. After they file the proxy statement on the RTO, the SEC then has 10 days to comment. Assuming no comments, SONM can then file the definitive statement, for which NASDAQ requires 20 days' notice. So if they filed today, the earliest vote on an RTO would be 5 November. That would mean a lag of 20 days (16 October to 5 November) where the market can sell off/react badly to the RSS news, effectively nuking current shareholders. What is more realistic to happen is for SONM to file the proxy statement right after the RSS meeting on 16 October. That would put the earliest possible RTO vote to 15-16 November. On the flipside, the market could also react positively. They could see the vote as a guarantee that the RTO is going to happen. The nuance is whether enough of the market believes the RTO is real and imminent. The fact the SP hasn't reacted to shareholders approving whatever RSS ratio the board (effectively green-lighting the RTO) tells me the market is sleeping at the wheel, which worries me that the market will short the hell out of this post 16 October and pre-merger.