Amazon tokenized stock FTX
> It's even simpler than that. OP did not understand Systemic Risk. In terms of my crypto investing, sure on its own it's failing to account for Systemic Risk, but I also feel it's unfair to simply single out crypto because that's a self fulfilling prophecy. Crypto on its own, particularly when you take it out of its private key cold storage is going to be inherently risky. This is like saying "your tech portfolio is at systemic risk." But why single out a single portfolio? I did diversify in the sense that 100% of my day to day earnings goes 100% into traditional finance only. It goes to build up my 401k, my Roth IRA, my home fund, my brokerage fund, etc. It's because of that I could afford to be significantly more risky with crypto. And yes I've been around in 2000-2008 with stocks too, but for you to single out tech as diversification... well you're right for one investing ONLY in tech isn't diversification, but your talk about timelines isn't really diversification. In terms of long term investing, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL not only recovered but far surpassed their dot com levels. >Anyone who has not taken the time to learn the basics on Investopedia or elsewhere, use this bear market to learn so you don't get slaughtered if the next bull run comes. I agree. My talk about diversification wasn't simply to state that the only thing I should've done was spread my crypto out to more CeFi lenders. That certainly is ONE form of diversification--simply putting all your eggs into ONE lender would be a far worse option IMO. With that said I encourage diversification all around IF you want to invest. I probably should've also looked at DeFi (would've been rekt by Anchor/Luna probably) as well if I truly wanted to diversify yield earning.
This is one of the posts where I’m completely baffled why it is so highly rated. Crypto prices are not driven by retail investors. It doesn’t matter if people have less money to spend on Christmas presents. The technology of the coins doesn’t matter, crypto isn’t bought because ETH announces a new features. It is a pure speculative asset right now without significant real-world use, with the market in the hands of pretty much one group: institutional investors. They decide if crypto goes up or down, or what it correlates with. Crypto was highly correlated with NDX for a very long time. Is there any fundamental reason for that? No, the big players simply made it so. There is no reason it should start to pump tomorrow. And there is no reason it shouldn’t. We have nothing to do with that. Big finance decides that, or more precisely their algorithms. There would be only one way to give crypto a fundamental reason to rise: widespread adoption. There are only two entities who can make that happen: governments (that would take a long time) or a handful of companies who have the ability to do it. The latter could go much faster, if they want to make it happen. Funnily, most of these companies are in NDX: AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, PYPL,…
Paywall dodge: —— 'Why aren't you in jail already?' Internet erupts after Sam Bankman-Fried confirms participating in New York Times' DealBook -Barbara Kollmeyer “ “How did this dude steal billions of dollars and is now speaking at a summit as a free man? Make it make sense.” ” That was Twitter user @WSBChairman responding to a late Wednesday tweet by disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who confirmed that he will participate in the New York Times’ DealBook Summit in November, where he will be interviewed by journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin. “Scam man. I lost everything because of you,” anotherTwitter user @Alexand56464660 replied to SBF. In a separate tweet, Sorkin said “nothing is off limits,” when it comes to interviewing SBF. “There are a lot of important questions to be asked and answered,” said the journalist. The furious responses triggered by tweets from both SBF and Sorkin — who also got suggestions on questions to ask — were just a taste of the boiling rage from the investment world that the former CEO who is accused of mismanaging billions of dollars would appear at the prestigious DealBook gathering of high level executives, business and cultural leaders. The 29-year old will be appearing alongside Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock BLK, +0.33%, Reed Hastings, Netflix founder and CEO NFLX, -2.23%, Andy Jassy, Amazon.com’s AMZN, -0.59% president and CEO, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, to name a few. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz is among those echoing that “why is he not in jail?” question, given his firm doesn’t expect to recover some $77 million in cash and digital assets it had in FTX when the whole enterprise fell apart. “I think his day will come,” he said Wednesday in an interview. SBF has been accused of treating FTX as a ‘personal fiefdom’, in addition to potentially sparking more fallout, with Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao saying telling Bloomberg on Thursday that he expects to see “a little bit of contagion.” Crypto trading firm Genesis has also been at the center of bankruptcy worries recently. But those hoping to come face to face with SBF may be out of luck as a spokesman for the New York Times told MarketWatch that he is expected to be “participating in the interview from the Bahamas.”
>An eight-episode limited series exploring the unraveling and scandals behind sunken crypto exchange FTX and its leadership is slated to soon begin production. > >The series has been purchased by technology conglomerate Amazon, and will likely air on Amazon’s video streaming service Prime. Russo brothers directing it is just an icing on the cake. Also, please include orgies too. Bullish on AMZN if they include orgies
This post got me curious about some more realistic scenarios that some might find interesting. Here's the data: Many started investing/trading/gambling (or managing their own investments held previously by a FA) when the pandemic shutdown started in March 2020. $1000 Starting Investment $400/month fixed contributions ($100 a week) March 1st 2020 - October 31st 2022 Ending Balance Time Weighted Rate of Return (TWRR) Max Drawdown - BTC/ETH 50/50 $25,204 78.61% -72.62% - BTC 100 $15,242 - ETH 100 $34,926 - SPY ETF $14,605 12.29% -23.95% - TSLA, AAPL, META, AMZN, GOOG [TAMAG] (20% ea) $13,376 25.08% -40.72% +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ Jan 1st 2016 - October 31st 2022 - BTC/ETH 50/50 $2,834,323 <------ 187.03% -81.39% - BTC 100 $356,443 81.39% -73.91% - ETH 100 $2,855,645 195.70% -89.91% - BTC/ETH 5%/5% , ~18% TAMAG Stocks ea. $196,885 62.57% -41.97% - SPY ETF $48,458 11.71% -23.95% - TAMAG Stocks (20% ea) $84,293 26.24% -40.72% Summary: If you got in BTC or ETH or both in 2016, had nerves of steel to ignore the drawdowns, and kept religiously DCA'ing $100 a week, well, lucky lucky you! This is why those who did are so braggadocios about it. Not that it's not annoying. But I personally would have surely sold going through a 75% - 90% drawdown. I also would have never put all my eggs in that one basket. I would have done exactly what I have been doing last few years - Diversification, a tilt towards traditional ETFs, stocks, alt assets, with an allocation to BTC ETH and some altcoins. But, since I sold a few bottoms and bought a few tops, the metrics above wayyyy outperformed me. What was it that Matt Damon said? Fortune Favors the Brave? Hmm. Seems so. At least back then. Too bad SBF destroyed crypto and it will never return numbers like that again. I say that with 50% certainty and 50% sarcasm. Which means I have no idea, not brave, and better get used to accepting 8% CAGR boomer returns until I retire. Oh well.
This is picking one of the best scenarios for crypto. While I don't hold any stock we still have to be realistic about the situation we're currently in. Looking at 1 year vs now: AMZN $51.3 APPL $94.3 MSFT $70.2 TSLA $47.5 ETH $30.2 BTC $29.2 These are dark times indeed.
November 14, 2022 Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) Chair Jeff Bezos has given out the $100 million "Bezos Courage & Civility Award" to crypto CEO and philanthropist Sam Bankman-Fried. What Happened: Presenting the 2022 award, along with his partner Lauren Sanchez, Bezos said about Bankman-Fried, "he gives with his heart, what he’s done for kids and literacy and so many other things is just incredible." Bankman-Fried was visibly excited in the video shared by Sanchez on Twitter while receiving the award, he said, "1) What 2) H”
I guess the silver lining here is that those who are trying to exploit the crypto community are getting exposed or cornered. While it’s great that BTC could go back to 30K, those crooks like FTX, Celsius would still be operating under the disguise that everything is alright. That I’d argue would be worse in the long run. I guess these are necessary growing pains for an asset that’s still very new and highly speculative. There’s a lot of nastiness to shake off and folks are starting to understand the line between total decentralization and total regulation. I assume in the next decade or so we’ll find the happy middle point between the two. Im still very optimistic going long and sort of happy that crypto community is having an honest discourse with itself. This is time of reeling, healing and eventually growing. Lastly, this is pain not exclusive to crypto. Many folks got torched holding stocks, even ones that were deemed “safe” (NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL and META). So folks need to understand the macro environment and not make panic moves like sell all their crypto for something else that’s also in the dumps. When time comes for money to flow back into the markets, you can bet crypto will rally again.
I guess the silver lining here is that those who are trying to exploit the crypto community are getting exposed or cornered. While it’s great that BTC could go back to 30K, those crooks like FTX, Celsius would still be operating under the disguise that everything is alright. That I’d argue would be worse in the long run. I guess these are necessary growing pains for an asset that’s still very new and highly speculative. There’s a lot of nastiness to shake off and folks are starting to understand the line between total decentralization and total regulations and I assume in the next decade or so we’ll find the middle point between the two. Im still very optimistic going long and sort of happy that crypto community is having an honest discourse with itself. This is time of reeling, healing and eventually growing. Lastly, this is pain not exclusive to crypto. Many folks got torched holding stocks, even ones that were deemed “safe” (NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL and META). So folks need to understand the macro environment and not make panic moves like sell all their crypto for something else that’s also in the dumps. When time comes for money to flow back in to the markets, you can bet crypto will rally again.
I pray for the halving to save us... but to compare this to the dotcom bubble, we may be at the point where AMZN doesn't reclaim the high for like nearly a decade. Ideally that's not the case but all the old parables have been dashed on the rocks and washed into sea.
AMZN only knows product at a UPC level. They don’t track which unit belongs to which seller that sent the product into their warehouse unless it has anti counterfeit protection like Transparency (basically a unique QR code per package). Looking at AMZN, it appears the ASINs might be gated in that no one else is allowed to sell as new. Note there are some listings as Used-Like New but might indicate original packaging. Don’t trust that for sure. Personally, I would avoid the hassle and only purchase direct.
BTC isn't the issue here though. It's simply the mentality of people coming in here thinking they will get rich. Of course you can point to Bitcoin now, but there are so many other ways to get rich. Why didn't you buy TSLA? Why didn't you buy AAPL? Why didn't you buy AMZN? If everyone had a crystal ball we'd all be millionaires by the time we're 18. The problem is people getting greedy and just trying to get rich. Focus on long term strategies--long term investing at 10% returns doesn't sound sexy, but it doesn't take long to become a millionaire if you keep at it. Always trying to jump on the next hottest thing thinking you will get rich is why you lose everything--what's to prevent you from jumping on the next scam coin, next MLM, next rug pull? Bitcoin maximalist or not, most of you aren't going to be millionaires here by shilling your coin or Bitcoin or whatever. Greed is what kills. Discipline, money management, asset allocation is how people get rich. Many people got rich because they were lucky, not because they thought mining coins in 2010 would make them filthy rich.
BTC isn't the issue here though. It's simply the mentality of people coming in here thinking they will get rich. Of course you can point to Bitcoin now, but there are so many other ways to get rich. Why didn't you buy TSLA? Why didn't you buy AAPL? Why didn't you buy AMZN? If everyone had a crystal ball we'd all be millionaires by the time we're 18. The problem is people getting greedy and just trying to get rich. Focus on long term strategies--long term investing at 10% returns doesn't sound sexy, but it doesn't take long to become a millionaire if you keep at it. Always trying to jump on the next hottest thing thinking you will get rich is why you lose everything--what's to prevent you from jumping on the next scam coin, next MLM, next rug pull? Bitcoin maximalist or not, most of you aren't going to be millionaires here by shilling your coin or Bitcoin or whatever. Discipline, money management, asset allocation is how people get rich.
Yeah that was a lame quote from me! What I meant to say was BTC's price has no direct correlation to the NASDAQ or thru Technical Chart Analysis. These past similarities have been coincidental only. NASDAQ is down 30% from November 2021 BTC is down over 60% from November 2021 Its the same with the Chart Analysis Savants that throw out their wisdom. It's not gonna happen, you cannot predict the direction of BTC. For instance: The NAZ can drop 200 points and at that time AMZN comes out and says they opened up their node and will now accept BTC? BTC will go parabolic and the NAZ still tanks. Its a matter of time and this scene will hold true. Now who's the F-n Nostradamus? Cheers
One couldn't really pinpoint where to invest back in the dot com bubble either, AMZN crashed many times in it's lifetime, the only reason Jeff is so rich is because he held onto his stocks throughout it all. The trillion dollar question now is what do we now hold for that amount of time? Is it still stocks like AMZN or is it something cryptographically new?
Bitcoin mimics the stock market because that's how most people see it. Most people see BTC next to AMZN in their trading app so they treat it like a tech stock. Once enough people realize that it is a completely different asset class it will eventually decouple. It takes time and education.
There was strong speculation they would raise rates by an additional 25 basis points and stocks like Texas Instruments and AMZN both miss earnings estimates. Hike was the expected amount, and some major earnings reports were better than expected, so stocks go up.
Here are the indicators for free that are likely more beneficial then this silliness: * Previous session high low * Today's high low * QQQ, VIX, ES/SPY/SPX * XLF, XLE * AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, GOOG * 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 34 EMA Outside of those, learn to create resistance and support levels via charting. And use other fun custom tools like bookmap to show where orders are concentrated.
Not fundamentally different if you had, say, AMZN stock and did the same. Totally a taxable event. Although I am not sure it would be if you bought your car in El Salvador and drove it back. Probably still a taxable event one way or another :-(
The only stocks I'm really waiting to buy are MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, AMD. Outside of that I just do indexes and day trade SPY. I'd think about JPM and some other banks after the market gets clobbered and the trash gets taken out. I've got cash stocked up for purchases when the market is sufficiently beaten down. Outside of that $10k into I-bonds will yield good interest for the next year to year and a half. I think food disruption from Ukraine/Russia and then EU/Africa will cause issues in the short-term. In the long-term I look at what Burry said and think you have mega-corps cutting spend and reducing inventory in the short-term with rising rates, but as soon as rates start decreasing there will be a supply shock due to lack of supply while people are again flush with cash - and you'll have this whipsaw between extremes at both sides of the demand equation.
I don’t have a problem with this post. Investing is psychological. If lowering your cost basis helps you feel better and even more importantly keeps you from selling at a loss and giving up then it’s not a bad strategy to DCA down. Most people capitulate and sell at the worst times. Also never use leverage. This will allow you to weather these times. I am older than Most who post here. I was heavily investing in the .com bubble. A DCA strategy buying the likes of AMZN, Apple, and Google would have worked out nice for you. I think the key takeaway is to keep buying through all this. Don’t try and time things. Nobody knows the future.
Apple makes popular things people want, and they are just introducing new ones, with a very profitable balance sheet. Amazon sells things people want and makes a huge profit too. Both companies have huge assets, either one alone is larger than the market capitalization of the entire crypto space. I am keeping AAPL and AMZN.
It's one thing to pity investors but we are all investing in an emerging and volatile asset class. It's riskier than AAPL or AMZN but the biggest payoffs for those have come and gone. All we can do is make our investments and protect them. Store your own coins 🪙
All of those companies have real assets and real cash flows. There is theoretically a bottom point at which the market capitalization is below the total real assets of a company. If you buy below that, it's a relatively safe bet because even if the company goes bankrupt and is liquidated, the company's value is determined by its assets. Plus, thinking that coca-cola, apple, MS, or AMZN will go to zero is silly.
>Or it’s the bubble popping for good this time This is so amazing to me. How people actually think this could be true. You really think Bitcoin is simply a bubble? How did it not "pop for good" the last 8 times it had a 70% drawback? All of those times it was different because the price was... lower? So now, you have this "bubble" token that... is still worth $20,000? This idea is **exactly** the same as people who would sell AMZN, GOOG, etc stocks during the dot com bust. Sure, there were losers in the dot com bubble that would never come back. But "The Internet" didn't pop for good.
Go to fidelity. Open a personal investment account Open a personal Roth IRA if your company doesn't offer one Put money in each. Mostly ETFs and sector ETFs. And a few stocks. Enable "reinvest dividends" Let sit Readjust occasionally. Put stop loss orders when market is bearish I Series bonds are paying 10% + right now. 1000x on AMZN stock 10x on AMD stock 4x on Games Workshop Stock. There. You can do this today. You don't need to trade every day. You don't even need to stress. If you do this with your first job and let it sit you can retire before 65.
Did you even read the article? He’s basically saying that it’s *because it’s the only crypto asset not competing on tech or product It’s competing primarily on security/stability. So if bitcoin fails, it probably won’t be because it’s replaced by something better* You can read his while twitter thread here: https://twitter.com/aridavidpaul/status/1536764452040843267?s=21&t=gOvPZOhJQHgz2QEUzAOOig And in comparison to Amazon, they focused on what they promised and delivered, while other companies like Ebay didn’t make it as far as AMZN because they only had their best interests in mind.
Profit can come from the growth of a company. Amazon going from nothing to a trillion dollar company generating billi9ns in profits didn’t cost anyone. Early investments turned into big riches. More recent investments small riches. No one lost money for AMZN to grow. It maintains value because it’s a profit machine. That’s how real investing works. Crypto is a pump and dump scheme. Bitcoin only costs what it takes in electricity to mine it. It’s only value is someone willing to hold it. Bitcoin itself earns no money. Makes nothing and generates nothing. The algorithm halving the rewards simply makes it more expensive to pay for energy to get the next Bitcoin. If everyone decided Bitcoin is stupid it would go to zero. If people started hating Amazon stock then Amazon would just take their profits and buy their own stock up and become private. Crypto and stocks are two very different things.
Look at other assets - stocks (DOTCOM, remember that? AMZN crashed 95% from its high in 2001 and took 9 years to recover. If you had bought AMZN at the low, you would be up as much as some of the BTC Hodlers. Yep. Human nature hasn't changed - 500 years ago or so in the Tulip mania a bulbof tulip, a single bulb, could get you a house in Amsterdam at the time :)
He’s actually not wrong, in simple terms; ANYONE can just copy & paste Bitcoin’s code, but not all code is created equal, same with blockchains. But the problem of creating a new coin to kill an existing one won’t work because those *new projects* would need to overtake it’s competitors in network value (users, activity, updates). But if history is any indicator, those *coin* killers never usually overtake Bitcoin or Ethereum, and I doubt any of those new projects will ever takeover BTC and ETH. (ie BSV, LTC, NMC, Terra, ONE, SOL) [list of btc copy&paste projects, all failed, some barely surviving](https://www.coinlore.com/coins/sha256) and [list of eth competitors](https://coinmarketcap.com/view/smart-contracts/) *It’s similar to how there’s many companies similar to GOOG and AMZN, but they never walk pass those giants.* And is crypto a scam? There was never any ill intent when Satoshi or Vitalik created their coins, even the doge founders created their coin as a joke, but look at how that turned out But under the iceberg you got all these scams built on these smart contract platforms, which just slows down the overall growth of the project, just think of these shitcoins as parasites, only good thing about them is that they bring in new users to the project more than the actual project itself. (ie SFM, SHIB, and other safe/inu coins) But there’s definitely going to be a documentary 10-20 years from now about the scam coins and platforms, similar to what we had from the 90’s boiler rooms
Talking retailers, there is only one that matters. Ticker symbol AMZN. It won't help if 75% of retailers accept crypto but they don't. Otherwise, it's not retailers we should care about, but payment processors. There are four that matter, the retailer from above is one of them. Most promising for accepting crypto right now is Paypal.
I didn’t bet millions, that’s what it’s worth now. It was and is an appropriate allocation relatively to my overall financial picture and risk tolerance. Primarily public equities bought and held (AMZN, TSLA helped). Some active options trading. Made a few private investments one of which did extremely well and the others flamed out. No I will not be sharing any sort of documentation bc I’m not stupid and don’t care what anonymous redditors think of me. I don’t mind sharing my approach and what has worked for me, but I don’t owe anyone anything and certainly don’t need to justify myself to anyone.
Coinbase is the first crypto exchange on the fortune 500. I agree with OP that it's a good way to hedge against a single coin falling, similar to investing in the $SPY alongside $AAPL and $AMZN. If BTC rallies 15% while some alts are rallying 500%, it'd be better to have that $COIN than just BTC.
I will give the book a read, but personally I still think that your admirable sentiment is naiive when looking at modern markets (forex, crypto, stocks, etc.), and you were not especially clear that you were ignoring fees and assuming that everyone's earnings always increased and having a purely altruistic assumption of people involved in trading The problem is that in MODERN markets, there are hundreds if not thousands of people trading, some short, some long, some speculating gains, others speculating crashes; there will ALWAYS be loosers in that game, it is sadly a fact that cherry picked systems disguise but don't eliminate (you are using VERY simplistic trading views between 2 people, NOT the modern globalized system where hundreads of people are making trades, which Yes would be nonzero IF they were the only trades operating, but for example, when I send a request to buy BTC that isn't the only request that Binance gets that day, they have hundreds of requests and trades with fees etc. I was using Person A and B simplistically for my AMZN hypothetical because I could not be bothered to type out the different positions of persons ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ and the myriad ways they could have been involved in trades in relation to AMZN where at least one of them would have taken a loss no matter what direciton AMZN moved in the short, medium and long terms TL:DR nice thought, but IRL in modern markets involving more than 2 people it doesn't work
Nonzero does not mean costless. It means that you are making money from helping others get what they want. As for AMZN example, you are assuming that both people involved in the trade must be interested in the same thing: short term gains. But maybe person A thinks Amazon is going to go up in a year, whereas person B is afraid it might go down next month. They have different investment windows, so person A gets what they want -- a good long term investment -- and person B also gets what they want -- to be rid of a bad short term investment. That is win/win. So it works for any maeket. The barter system was just an accessible example. Nothing that I said or Robert Wright said in his book depends on barter. When people have BTC that they wish to unload for ETH and I have ETH and wish to go vice versa, the market that puts us together is win/win because it gave us both what we want that we would not have had without the market. That is nonzero. Seriously -- read the book. You will understand the world a lot better.
Whilst I appreciate your sentiment - modern markets (forex, stocks and shares, crypto) are NOT barter systems like you have described, if I want to buy BTC I'll probably use USD, and I'm not sending my USD to Dave so he can send me his BTC cost-free, I'm sending it to a broker and paying for the privilage (transaction costs, etc.) somewhere along the line Person A thinks AMZN is gonna go up, Person B thinks AMZN is gonna go down for either person A or B to 'win', the other person must loose (replace AMZN with USD/EUR/ETH/whatever business/currency you like
Still think that's a smart term play. I'm about 50/50 equities and cryto. Was more heavily weighted crypo in fall, obv. Of crypto, 95% is comprised of BTC and ETH. Of Equities, 90% is in GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA.
And as any psychologist, economist, or other social scientist with a PhD could tell you, the concept of modeling works great for the natural material world or particles and forces because it is devoid of consciousness or intention. Humans, however, can choose to follow rules or break them, can come up with new rules that invert the old ones overnight, and most importantly can act according to diverse rationales, up to and including sacrificing themselves in battle to save fellow countrymen to whom they are not genetically related (the so called altruism problem) or voting for a president who admits he plans to harm their economic interests because he promises to be mean to the people they hate (just to pick a random hypothetical). Much of economic theory depends on a so-called "rational actor" model of individual people maximizing their own economic good. But much other research challenges that with the dynamics of people in groups acting against their own "rational" interest out of "emotional" motivations. I'm just skimming the surface of a complex problem of using, say, mathematical models of prior human behavior to predict future human behavior. People routinely do destroy good things that work, even if your case is crypto is a good thing that works. People routinely do get impatient, or overly greedy to where they forget to follow a disciplined strategy, or fearful to where they also forget to exercise self-discipline, and FOMO or cash out in a down market. Fight or flight responses are much more primitive (evolutionarily speaking) than our intuitions and instincts for thinking with abstractions like "money" and "future income." I'm with OP. I've been investing for about 30 years as a regular middle class dude. I've mostly followed the classic disciplined strategy of buying and holding stocks in quality companies and index funds and diversifying broadly across the sectors of the market including fixed income and real estate. I've lived through the effervescence of the late 1990s and the dot com crash, and also through the 2008 crash and bear market. I just kept DCA'ing in and I'm approaching retirement in Zfine shape. I would tell any young investor that decades of data give us a more reliable assurance about that strategy than any other of your goal is *sufficient* wealth. But that is of course a personal choice and varies a lot. "Fuck you money" is a whole other thing and most of the people who have it started with some head start. But a few got smart or lucky on things like lottery tickets or a really good stock pick or early adopting Bitcoin. Not everyone will be lucky. And it's hard for us to admit to ourselves but most of us are not likely as smart as we think we are. There are smarter people trying to beat the system than you. ALWAYS. But maybe you'll be luckier than them. And of course there's the ethical question of what you're willing to do to beat the system, and whether that includes taking wealth out of the hands of other people like you who are less smart, less lucky, etc. A lot of crypto investment culture seems to cross that line, but then again so do publicly traded stocks. I own some AMZN and it's made me a lot of money over the years. I bought it early when the company was still mostly just an online bookstore but obviously had its hands on something important. But to get as big as it has it has exploited the labor of people a lot less educated or privileged than me, and imposed significant carbon costs on the society at large, and killed many small businesses that were important institutions in real communities. I've made big gains on the back of these practices. So have tens of millions of other Americans who are somehow invested in the company (often via mutual funds or pension funds so they didn't choose the stocks themselves). So the ethical issues aren't specific to crypto. But they aren't solved by crypto either. Or some are and new ones are introduced.
You’ve psyched yourself out of the market, probably spot on about a crash, but less so on how bad. An economic recession isn’t an economic depression. Most of the 70s were in or felt like a recession and I lived thru that. This one won’t be as bad unless there are continued world or US events that force or cause the economy to react lower and continuously—like a steady move towards world war, US political-civil strife, famine, terrorism, power system disruptions, major missteps by the fed or the President, etc, which play out over 3-10 years. The markets survived back then, 70s, and while high inflation drives away speculative money, “the market climbs a wall of worry”—it will rebound, slowly zig-zag or strongly, no one will know until it happens. The crypto bear is here or so it seems, and while no one knows for sure how bad, BTC has a habit of crashing hard, 80-90% during past bears. However, with the slow and increasing institutional investments, and low but steady world adoption, I suspect a BTC if this is indeed a bear, will not retrace as deep, maybe 66-80%, or as fast as previous crashes and could play out more slowly than in the past. That would still suck bad but if you’re indeed an OG, you seemed to have forgotten that blockchain despite all of its good, bad and ugly crypto assets, tokens and coin, represents an obvious technological-internet revolution that’s not going away. We are all early, like venture capitalists investing in MSFT or AMZN years before their IPO. Dollar-cost down just like you know to do when the market is trending higher.
I wasn’t attempting to say anything is intrinsically wrong with PoS. Besides, I don’t believe it to be intrinsically bad. I do disagree with the “million little guys”’outweighing whales though is all. It’s all theoretical and has never happened in a large cap PoS chain, and there’s no reason to believe it ever will happen in the coming decades without some breakthrough in “democratic” chains or something. It would be like pointing out all those little retail investors who own large cap MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, GOOG shares could outweigh the whales who own shares in a proxy vote. Well, no it’s impossible: You can count them up, just like you can count up the stake of the top known whales and on every larger cap PoS chain and see no way can the little guys even budge the whales. *The only time it matters (at this point in history) is basically for breaking “ties” between whales, which is at least something though*.
Why are you treating me like I don't like Crypto? I never had AMZN, the only stocks I had were TSLA and GPS, I have 100% on Crypto and I am mostly an Ethereum trader, its my favourite asset for swing and position trades. But I took everything out of my ETH and Metamask wallets to my BTC wallet in case this goes wrong. You just think in one dimension so I am not talking to you anymore. Fucking dumb kid. Hope you lose all your money in ETH and I stack my ETH from idiots like you for 500$ or whatever.
1. Exchanges provide access to people who wouldn't have it otherwise. 2. Stocks in general are toys unless you hold commanding shares. The environmentalist BS is absurd. 3. Seethe 4. Crypto is nothing, fiat is nothing. It's all believed value based on faith. 5. Lol at qualifying it with a "non-stablecoin". I don't take out mortgages payable in AMZN, AAPL, GM, or GME so I don't understand the point they're trying to make. 6. Ignorant rambling. I don't even understand what they're saying. 7. Because there's absolutely no volatility in world markets whatsoever. Morons. 8. Another inappropriate usage of the term "ponzi", and if it was, there wouldn't be people who have made money from crypto. I guess Vitalik was running a mafia extortion racket at age 19, weighing 110lb soaking wet. 9. It's like fiat cash except without borders. No government to fuck it all up. 10. So then what are you so scared of?!
So stocks I’m looking to buy are AMZN, KO, BA, DIS, and FUN. (Amazon, Coca Cola, boeing, Disney, and cedar fair). As far as price targets go I don’t really have any, I’m just waiting to assess the impacts of the next couple FOMC meetings, because if the fed raises rates at both we won’t be close to the bottom yet imo. As far as cryptos go, just BTC and ETH although I do have a bag of ADA. Anything under 30k is solid for BTC and anything under 2k for ETH. Although I think we still have a ways to go before we hit bottom
It is nice to find some good classic math here. Your work is excellent, and yes, your conclusions are correct. There is correlation and at the same time there is no correlation. I think that correlation exists in panic-times, whereas normal times, they are independent. I did a similar job, you can improve this. The NASDAQ index is weighted like this: AAPL 12.628 MSFT 10.371 AMZN 6.087 TSLA 4.081 That's 33.167% there! Supposing that the remaining stocks will move up/down cancelling each other, you can safely assume that based on 4 stocks movement you can improve your entry points, NASDAQ will follow them.. This is a long story. You can find more interesting fact plotting the same BTC/AAPL BTC/MSFT BTC/AMZN BTC/TSLA, and the most interesting data is the plot in the earnings release date of one of those big 4. ​ Hope to hear more of this!
It's a ponzi scheme, whether Bitcoin or Luna. Dump your coins. Invest your money into good companies with proven track records like APPL and AMZN or better yet, an index ETF that does the job of picking future winners for you. Sleep like baby knowing you're good on the long run.
L1s apart from BTC and ETH would not be viable long-term, there's room for only one more at max now. I'm not saying all those DOT, ALGO, SOL are bad it's just that they're too late for the party for the possible incremental advantage they bring in. Innovation is going to drive the market, if someone brings something completely new to the table like how ETH brought when Crypto was just BTC. I don't know what that would be but someone has to really create something. I know this might upset people or feel attacked..but I'm NOT saying remaining L1s are bad it's just that the early movers advantage is not there. Imagine me trying to bring a new e-commerce app, it has to be substantially different or better value prop than AMZN. Also everything is possible insta, whatsapp, reddit, FB, linked in all exist despite all of them being Social Networking apps, but if you observe all of them are very very different and cater to different use-cases and experiences.
All of these people kept on arguing and down voting me said otherwise. Really comical, lol. MSFT goes from near $0 to 350 on a longer time frame, same for AMZN, AAPL, and many other companies, same for BTC. All of them all fall at the same time because none are protection for inflation. Yet, these people are still arguing. I can't stop laughing...
Just to add the analogy to the dot com era of the late 90s fails on this point for me. That was a stock market bubble and crash. The money put in and lost, or made, went into publicly traded securities governed by regulations against fraud, and laws about transparency, and even bankruptcy law protections for companies that failed. I was a young investor then. I didn't drink the koolaid too much, took my profits along the way, and made considered investments in two companies who products and services I believed in because I used them myself -- AAPL and AMZN. Still hold both 20 lucrative years later. Sure I made some bad bets too. But I was diversified. I took profits off the table when they were there. I rode out the crash and eventually was made way more than whole. The crypto crash is not analogous to that scenario in many ways. The most important of which is that a dozen years in there is no mass adoption of the tech innovation driving the speculative bubble. There won't be winners, just losers. No one has yet demonstrated why Blockchain tech will change the world to most peoples' satisfaction. By 1999 it was very clear the internet was going to change everything going forward in deep ways. I know crypto evangelists say this about blockchain. But it isn't happening and it isn't obvious why it would. The major use cases for the tech seem to be about end-running the power of nation states to regulate economies. That wasn't at all true of internet tech as such, heck the internet began as a military project (DARPA) sponsored by a nation state. The web came later. TCP/IP network protocol was the very big breakthrough tech. In the 80s. It wasn't new in the 90s. You go up against nation states with a technology that undermines their sovereign control of their economies, borders, and laws, you best not miss on the first shot. And crypto already has.
I don’t feel that at all, but then I really believe in those points in the post. I think crypto is going to be baked into our lives, visibly and invisibly, the way smartphone functionality is now. It won’t even be recognizable in 10-20 years. All I see is $1.60 AMZN in 1997.
See. This is where your bias shows. Which metric, apart from gut instinct, shows that Tesla's value is within the realm of fairness? >TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM. (From seeking alpha) >Yes, the tenant trashing the property is a risk, but generally if you buy in high class neighborhoods that's not a significant risk. Also picking something that happens in rare situations and saying that's a reason not to do something isn't a valid argument. By that logic we wouldn't drive because it risks loss of everything. We can get statistics for risk and make logical inferences based on those statistics. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, and if you want to use a reductionist argument to say everything with risk is speculation then you have removed all forms of meaning from the word because then I'm speculating I won't die every time I walk down the stairs. Provide stats on BTC going to zero then. If you're using statistical analysis feel free to share your data.
>It's like buying a house and letting it sit empty and expecting a positive return when anybody can simply make their own houses (other crypto). This is exactly what is happening though. People buy houses, make minor changes and then sell them for tens of thousands more? House prices have been rising by about 10% every single year near me. >Yes, renting out your crypto would be similar to renting out a house, with the major exception that housing is necessary for human life. So like purchasing commercial office space? Or retail? Etc. >Also the risks are far different, the legal system protects your asset you are renting out whereas if nobody pays back your crypto loan the government won't involve the authorities to get your asset back. Yep. There's also risky non crypto investments. Doesn't change anything though. >Also, GOOGL and AMZN don't pay dividends because the shareholders are happy with the returns. If they were to remain flat for five years or so I can guarantee you the shareholders would vote in a dividend or share buyback. Same with some cryptos? Plenty of cryptos have similar mechanisms that the holders can vote on.
Yes, renting out your crypto would be similar to renting out a house, with the major exception that housing is necessary for human life. Also the risks are far different, the legal system protects your asset you are renting out whereas if nobody pays back your crypto loan the government won't involve the authorities to get your asset back. But yes, lending crypto is a different beast and my issue is people buying and holding and simply expecting the price to increase. It's like buying a house and letting it sit empty and expecting a positive return when anybody can simply make their own houses (other crypto). Also, GOOGL and AMZN don't pay dividends because the shareholders are happy with the returns. If they were to remain flat for five years or so I can guarantee you the shareholders would vote in a dividend or share buyback.
>A crypto like Bitcoin has no 'cheap' valuation and no 'expensive' valuation. You will never get any earnings from Bitcoin. It will never make you more money unless you convince somebody to buy it from you. You'll never get money from GOOGL or AMZN unless you get someone to buy it from you. >You can have a positive return with stocks, real estate, and bonds even if you NEVER sell the asset. That is the fundamental difference. Crypto is ONLY speculation. Speculation exists for other assets but it is not the sole return driver. See, you're talking about positive returns from real estate? Do you mean by renting your asset out? Similar to how you can essentially rent your crypto out as well?