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Bitcoin is going to hit $102, 020+ by 2025 - Here's Why
Helping the above average John guy understand the Defi space : Decentralized indices, The DeFi ETF Landscape, Index Cooperative (INDEX), Indexed Finance (NDX), PowerPool Concentrated Voting Power (CVP), How to compare them, risks and notable mentions
Bitcoin, correlated to Stocks or bonds? Well, the past days BTC was not correlated to either of those and is doing its completely own thing, almost like a new asset-class…
Bitcoin, correlated to Stocks or bonds? Well, right now BTC is not correlated to either of those and is doing its completely own thing, almost like a new asset-class…
Coinbase Insider trading details — a wallet started buying $400k worth of tokens about 24hrs before the Coinbase Asset Listing post was published. The tokens are worth over $572,000 now.
Coinbase Insider trading details — an Ethereum wallet started buying $400k worth of tokens about 24hrs before the Coinbase Asset Listing post was published. The tokens are worth over $572,000 now.
This is why I believe the bottom has been reached in BTC according to my own on-chain, sentiment and chart analysis.
"Worst is yet to come" for bitcoin and crypto, analyzes BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes
Why BTC will probably be doing good the following months with my own on-chain and chart analysis. I also think the bottom has been reached.
Mentions
One thing people learn with stock picking is that it all depends on Wall Street pumping. If they like a stock, they'll pump it (TSLA, PTON, AAPL, etc.). That's when one makes money. However, when the party is over (TSLA), hope you got out and shifted to the new darling. Best to just trade the futures ES or just invest in the SPX/NDX ETFs to keep up with inflation. Bitcoin is a game changer if you can swipe the bottom with TA.
Crypto behaves a lot like the nasdaq. That's all you need to know. When rates fall quickly due to a black swan event or a recession signal, crypto will get hit hard along with the NDX. Anybody selling you the digital gold narrative doesnt know that even actual gold first falls during a recession and then recovers with strength afterwards. If rates are paused at an elevated level due to sticky inflation, say good bye to stocks and crypto for at least a year. Thats what happened in 08.
I personally don't care anything about a 2% annual return (after inflation). SPX and NDX were up 24% and 50% respectively last year. But it all comes down to risk tolerance and at 28 I see no reason to have a bond allocation but some might want less volitility so they pay for that reduction in risk.
Compared to BTC and the Nasdaq it is. Jan 2013 to today: SPX is at 3x NDX is at 4.75x BTC well over 200x
Honestly it's not if you're watching how NDX is performing right now. Btc closely follows tech stocks.
**Just facts:** 2018 "Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies" episode aired on 3/11/2018. 2023 "Cryptocurrencies II" episode aired on 4/23/2023. **During that span: BTC up 295%, NDX up 97%, SPX up 57%, DJI up 41%.**
Could be some profit taking and getting rid of all those longs or just a bad trading day as NDX and SPX are down as well.
Too many new people on this sub that won’t recognize how correct you are. Once nations begin issuing bitcoin backed bonds, see El Salvador, Bitcoin will be the de facto world currency. For that reason alone, $200k is well within reason. People always seem to forgets, or maybe they don’t understand, that the Bitcoin exchange rate is absorbing new supply creation in addition to trading and sentiment. Price going down and hashrate rising is an indicator of what the miners think about Bitcoin, let that sink in. Costs are up and rewards are down, yet they are adding more computational power. Adoption and acceptance will happen quietly and quickly. Bitcoin exchange rate already scrolls across the screen on the same Bloomberg TV ticker as SPX, DJI, and NDX, 24 hours a day, worldwide. When I first discovered Bitcoin during the Cypriot Banking Crisis, this would have been unthinkable. Most of the naysayers have only experienced the last 2-3 years of Bitcoin’s history. I look forward to their humbling. Just like the naysayers in 2018-19 and 2014-15.
This is one of the posts where I’m completely baffled why it is so highly rated. Crypto prices are not driven by retail investors. It doesn’t matter if people have less money to spend on Christmas presents. The technology of the coins doesn’t matter, crypto isn’t bought because ETH announces a new features. It is a pure speculative asset right now without significant real-world use, with the market in the hands of pretty much one group: institutional investors. They decide if crypto goes up or down, or what it correlates with. Crypto was highly correlated with NDX for a very long time. Is there any fundamental reason for that? No, the big players simply made it so. There is no reason it should start to pump tomorrow. And there is no reason it shouldn’t. We have nothing to do with that. Big finance decides that, or more precisely their algorithms. There would be only one way to give crypto a fundamental reason to rise: widespread adoption. There are only two entities who can make that happen: governments (that would take a long time) or a handful of companies who have the ability to do it. The latter could go much faster, if they want to make it happen. Funnily, most of these companies are in NDX: AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, PYPL,…
>Once again pointing to past performance when the markets haven’t seen anything like this before, crypto has known nothing but an increasing debt bubble with no major correction, is foolhardy. Regarding my comments on past performance I never said that - I pointed out that the way crypto has crashed would have happened REGARDLESS the macro situation. SO FAR, there is nothing out of the ordinary when it comes to the crypto bear market. >In fact the overall sentiment here seems to be that this is normal, nothing to fear. That's not true, everyone is expecting a deep capitulation and is parroting doom and gloom bullet points. You might think so though because many around here DCA and just don't care that much about it. >If the DOW falls another 20-25% what does that mean for the crypto markets 40-60%? For the sake of the argument I will accept that it does. At some point that would have been true: crypto mirrored SP500/NDX but in an 2X-3X exaggerated fashion. Then it stopped and started doing its own thing for a while, then it resumed mirroring but at an almost 1:1 ratio and while the two indices were making deeper lows crypto cunningly maintained its 18.4 local bottom. What does it all mean? Should the indices fall for another 20%-25% we might be pleasantly surprised by crypto. Sure, we might touch this cycle bottom again which changes nothing, and even drop a bit more, but I don't see the lifetime opportunity you are talking about happening (I see it, but it is now).
Odds are quite low for BTCUSD to slide back below the Oct low (around 18k) before December. As its correlation with S&P500 and Nasdaq100 on a weekly chart remains fairly high, the Dead Cat Bounce underway for both SPX and NDX and strengthening suggests high odds for a good bounce on BTCUSD towards 25k in the next few weeks. An interesting question for after the SPX and NDX exhaust on their Dead Cat Bounce is whether their correlation with BTCUSD begins trending down, which would suggest that the low we saw in June may have been the BTCUSD bear market low.
NDX is at around 11000 points, just about what it was in July 2020. What are the numbers you are talking about ?
SPX -4%, NDX -5%, Bitcoin -10% What a day. We truly bounce softer and drop harder relative to stocks these days. The idea was that Bitcoin would be a hedge against inflation but it truly is just a risky asset eh :/
Let’s do this exercise. Go to tradingview and bring up 2 charts: BTCUSD and NDX. Go to 12th Aug 2020, take note of BTCUSD and NDX values Then go to 12th Aug 2018, take note of BTCUSD and NDX values Then go to 12th Aug 2016, take note of BTCUSD and NDX values Then go to todays charts and take note of these values again. Then ask yourselves: was it too late to invest in 2020? Was it too late in 2018? Was it too late in 2016? It was only 2, 4 and 6 years ago. It’s never too late to invest in cryptos (and stocks) for a long term holder.
If you're trading charts go back and look at how things like crude oil, XBI, NDX, and SPX behaved in July of 08 because its eerily similar
Bitcoin has never seen a recession. If it can go down 85% in 2017, can go way down than that in a recession for sure. SPX and NDX charts doesn't look good at all, nor the inflation.
[https://it.tradingview.com/symbols/SPX/](https://it.tradingview.com/symbols/SPX/) https://it.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-NDX/
Can NDX pull a SOL and shut the switch off for the weekend!!!
You know the difference between NDAQ and NDX right? The Nasdaq index is down, no one cares about NDAQ
NDX is down 10% in the past year. BTC is down 44%. NDX has been +/- 25% over the past year, BTC gas been +/- 50% over the past year. If you look at the yearly chart there's a slight correlation but it's not really recognizable.
NDX goes down, we crash NDX goes up, we slow bleed!! LMAO!
But it's pretty unlikely to not sell off more given that the SPY and NDX are looking so scary.
I think one could argue crypto/BTC is caught up in macro economic stuff, but it fizzled in 2021. Even while SPX and NDX were putting new high after new high. Seems likely BTC peaked in spring 2021.
Very good points. Crypto has only existed in a stock bull market fueled by excess liquidity provided by the FED and other central banks. It has not yet weathered a full blown recession and stock bear market with the tightest financial conditions in a few decades coupled with inflation. Many people ignore these points because the view is that crypto is an uncorrelated asset. It's unfortunately not, as proven by it trading just like the NDX and ARKK. ​ Your leverage point is one I forgot to mention in my write-up, but it's probably one of the most important one. The amount of leverage in crypto is insane. Not a lot of it is visible to the common user until its gone entirely through forced liquidation.
What do you mean? It lost less money in absolute terms? Its of course the case if the market caps are differently sized as they are. Crypto total market cap is down \~45% from its November peak. BTC is down 41.6% from its November peak. NDX is down 23.4% from its November peak. Crypto and BTC both correlate very closely to the Nasdaq100 and ARKK. Crypto was supposed to be this uncorrelated asset and a safe haven, but now it has been trading like the risky meme stocks. The factor tying them together is traced exactly to the day the US FED decided to start tightening. What conclusions should you draw from this? Was it FED liquidity financing BTC/crypto rise? Were people simply looking for any place to park their money or did they believe in what they were investing in?
If the whales aka smart money always wins, why do most mutual funds and hedge funds underperform the benchmark (SPX, DJI, NDX)? Very few can consistently outperform the market, smart or dumb. In fact a small agile shark (retail trader) can get in and out quickly & easily or stay in cash etc which whales can't do. All whales can do is control the media and drive a specific narrative that shapes retail behavior (teasing out fear or greed in retail money), use insider trading, counter trade against their clients neglecting their fiduciary duty. And despite all this trickery they rarely outperform the index. Seeing the several large funds collapse in 2008 was beautiful. Proof that even with PhDs on supercomputers you can still blow up your account!!
Holding up well compared to Nasdaq? NDX is down 20% BTC and ETH are down 40%. Many alts down 50-80%. They are down horrendously compared to stocks and NDX has yet to break support yet (it will). It hasn't even begun.
NDX is one of my biggest losses after the hack hilarious to see coinbase consider listing it
"Over 11 hours, the wallet spent $88,942.48 buying KROM, $80,023.48 on DFX, $72,299.45 on RADAR, $70,635.74 on RAC, $64,864.59 on NDX, and $27,309.96 on PAPER ... On Tuesday afternoon, Kromatika was up 40%, DFX up 42%, DappRadar up 53%, RAC was up 22%, Index up 43%, and Paper up 63%." Yep, dodgy AF.
Market has already sold off and traders have already priced 3-4 hikes into their models. That being said it does deserve to fall further, but what you’re seeing now is the public responding to what they are seeing in the news and CNBC. Traders will happily take these knee jerk sell orders as they already shorted on the way down, even out and add to their positions and then run it up to a point where they will start selling them back to the public as if the fear is gone. This is the way it always works. Traders are 2-3 months ahead of the public. So bumpy yes, further to fall sure, but a massive crash I don’t see. 13 on the NDX, 32 on the DJI and maybe 4 even on the SPX
Good observation. This last rise in the NDX / QQQ's has shot way over an upper trendline since the bottom in 2009. So, the bull market has accelerated.
Touche. I think the party is over for stocks that have a ridiculous valuation or no earnings . From Friday’s prices those kind of stocks cud go down another 50% or more. And the mkt is only down 6%. In 2000 NDX went down 75%. SpX 45% can’t rule out anything. High beta names this is just the first wave down . Some stocks will Never see their previous highs again or go out of business. Bullish near term
This is truly an issue in crypto, rumination, anxiety, obsessive thinking, all these factors can erode your mental health. I manage this in a variety of ways. The first is portfolio construction, whereby ninety per cent of my holdings are big cap, relatively lower risk plays such as bitcoin and ethereum. The final ten percent is allocated to some well researched altcoin plays. With these riskier bets I use what I call the sleep test to determine whether my allocation is suitable for my risk tolerance: is the amount of capital sufficiently insignificant such that I will not lose any sleep thinking and/or worrying about it at night? If the answer is no I size down my bet. So this little test combined with a long term plan help to keep the emotions out of my trading/investing. I was a victim of the recent NDX hack and was fine with it immediately because I knew it was in beta, took a calculated risk, and while the loss stung it wasn’t big enough to really fall apart over, and more than compensated by gains in other projects. The other crucial thing is to remember that all this ain’t what’s important in life. We invest in crypto but the end of this activity is a better, freer life with our near and dear. It’s useful to tune out from chart watching and consuming financial news as often as possible, and remember to actually live and enjoy your life. Take care of yourselves, and each other and GL guys.
been looking at NDX for quite a while now, still havent bought, but its for sure my favorite small project.
"They" wouldn't drop the DOW, NDX, and SPX by 2+ percent at the same time would they? No they wouldn't. It's a mixture of the China shit and Biden threatening to double capital gains taxes. Perfect storm for a good buying opportunity
NDX, most promising index offering I've seen so far.
Looking at NDX here as my low cap gem
> It subsequently went from $3000 to $60000 in 7-8 months Subsequently? And what does Bitcoin's bull run have to do with anything this thread is talking about? Why are you bringing up that irrelevant piece of information? The point of this entire thread is to discuss what happens to bitcoin when a developed economy like the US goes into a recession. Now you're mentioning the stock market dropping in the last week? **SPY was down 0.18% in the last 5 days.** Then you mention the BTC bull run? Why? **THE THREAD IS TALKING ABOUT WHETHER BITCOIN IS PRESERVE ITS VALUE WHEN AN ECONOMY IS PERFORMING POORLY.** Not when NDX and SPY catapulting upwards in the last 8 months. **We're talking about whether Bitcoin crashes when the stock market drills**. Last spring, when SPY dropped from 330 to 220, BTC drilled from 10k to 4k. When equities are dumping, Bitcoin does too.
I also just want to point out that DEFI5 has 6 tokens in it because SNX fell below the inclusion threshold and MKR is being moved in to replace it. This is a slow process that's mostly taken care of by arbitragers, but it will eventually reach it's target weight. ​ >This swap fee also impacts most scenarios where you trade in to or out of the index, along with a .5% exit fee. This swap fee of 2% is entirely optional for users and is only applied when a user doesn't want to burn for all of the underlying tokens, but instead just a single token. This is in place to prevent IL in the balancer pools plus that 2% fee gets reinvested within the index. The .5% burn fee gets sent to the treasury and soon to NDX holders.
What is your opinion about [https://indexed.finance/](https://indexed.finance/) and potential growth of NDX token?
Indexed Finance (NDX) is like a baby versioning this on Ethereum currently sitting at a 30 mil market cap. Just for a quick mcap check in. This project looks way better and as you mentioned with the support of CT it could be huge! Plus they have plans to bridge to Ethereum in Q3! Fuck me I’m so bullish it hurts
Key Takeaways: - Index Coop has the largest AUM with a dominance of more than 50%. However, Indexed Finance has the highest AUM growth year-to-date and became the third-largest indices protocol. - Both INDEX and NDX are undervalued in both Mcap/TVL and FDV/TVL relative to CVP. - Index Coop would earn the most revenue as it charges the highest fee on all its indices. - Indexed Finance only has one source of earning - an exit fee of 0.5% from its DEGEN and NFTP. - CVP in the meanwhile has a more diversified income from minting and exit fees. - Currently, Index Coop has only launched 3 indices, while both Indexed Finance and PowerPool have four indices, respectively. - Indexed Finance is only 4 months old, while PowerPool is 8-months old. Hence, Indexed Finance is the fastest at launching products. That said, Index Coop and PowerPool teams work with their methodologist to ensure their products are safe and consider all the associated factors and risks. - Indexed Finance may lose the speed as they launched the Sigma program. The program allows them to collaborate with external partners, which would take a longer time. For instance, DEGEN was the index fund they partnered with Redphonecrypto in late December 2020; it went live 3 months later in early March 2021. - DEFI5 will be the cheapest option to have exposure to DeFi blue chips. Arguably, DPI has the best performance to-date, despite it having the highest fee. - Funds investors could earn passive income with all the funds, with DEFI5 providing the highest DeFi index APY at 32.1%. - DPI utilizes market cap-weighting - which is very popular even in the traditional financial market. Your portfolio will be heavily concentrated on large-cap assets. Whereas, square root-weighting (DEFI5) and equal-weighting (PIPT) will have more weights towards the lower-caps assets. List of Sources and Resources listed in the article.
I’ve noticed around midnight EST Uniswap fees go down to an “acceptable” ~$30 (still high but that’s about what Bilaxy charges to withdraw). Anyway, anyone have thoughts on these Uniswap/Sushiswap coins? $SOAR, $DERI, $NDX, $EYE
Just look at how Elon has brought positive sentiment to the market, he tweeted that you'd be able to buy Tesla with Bitcoin and bam. Alts are going to perform really well if you want some of the good ones you can look at some crypto indexes like NDX, Defi++ or Scifi. Scifi's team is very proactive with their listings and selections, also listings are voted upon by the community. The recent listings on Scifi are Ftt and Snow.
Scifi has been outperforming other indexes aswell like NDX, Piedao etc , but I am interested in Spice it has the best price appreciation mechanism and whoever came up with this idea was a genius. They literally replaced it with the management fees which somebody would have charged to participate in a certain index. Spice is market bought if other constituents in the index overpower spice in terms of value as spice being one of the constituents in the index, thus making a flow of monetary power from the top performing alts into Spice.
So if you are looking for someone to suggest then you should let the experts do it, there are defi index funds for example which have underlying assets locked in smart contracts. There are NDX, PIEDAO, DEFI++ SCIFI, out of which I prefer SCIFI mostly, they have proactive developments on their platform and a monthly rebalancing of the portfolio, recently they added Snow and Ftt, nice move these were gaining some reputation lately.
You can do your own research and trade on your own via Uniswap, but I wouldn't recommend that, due to high fees. As the folks bellow mentioned, try finding a crypto index, easiest way to diversify your portfolio, with minimum stress and work. You have at least 4 different crypto index projects( INDEX DOUGH NDX to name a couple) , but the scifi is the only one that compares themself with competition on market. [Here is the link](https://twitter.com/sci_finance/status/1366806321664770050)
There is lots of hype that people are earning x100 via airdrops, which is hard to belive, but everything is possible in crypto. With airdrops there is sometimes lots of work, and most of the time the instructions are not good ( imo ). So for a passive income try crypto indexes. I would try [SciFinance](https://twitter.com/sci_finance/status/1366806321664770050), it has 2 diferent indexes, which they compare to other crypto indexes like INDEX, DOUGH, NDX...and they are better at it.
Yeah SCIFI is a better one imo, their research team are experts in balancing their AUM's which happens every month I guess. Also from a broader perspective I think the assets on SCIFI will perform a lot better than of NDX, but their degen index looks pretty spicy haha. SPICE is something that somebody would like hold over here it is pegged to both of their indexes and grows in value as the indexes do.
Ok, you talk about crypto indexes, let me give you a view from the other side of the diverzificating your portfolio. [SciFinance](https://twitter.com/sci_finance) has 2 index tokens named SCIFI and GBI, and their governance token is SPICE. Comparing the index governance token of SCIFI with INDEX, DOUGH and NDX is this SPICE + 25.5% INDEX - 22.2% DOUGH -11.6% NDX -4.1% So do check them out, hope I helped expanding the view a bit
One I can recommend is SPICE, a low market cap gem with so much potential. SPICE is an index governance token, it performed solidly well in the past week when compared to other index governance tokens like DOUGH NDX and others. SPICE has good use cases as it's a DAO token.
That’s the DEGEN index, which actually has value of the underlying assets and liquidity. It will also be stakeable with, if similar to DEFI5, ~200% APY rewarded in NDX.
Staking - yes. For example, indexed.finance, which is has two tokens. Defi5 which tracks the top 5 DeFi tokens and cc10 which tracks the top 10 crypto. You can stake (lend) just the defi5 token, doesn’t need to be paired with eth, although they do have a defi5/eth pool as well. In return you get NDX, their governance token.