FED

idontspellcheckb46am

Should they keep the money printer going? Tell me who bullied the FED out of discontinuation of purchases of MBS in 2018?

kakkesugi

in the short term maybe! lets wait and see what the FED has to say by the end of the month lol

descartablet

I see a little of this happening now as FED increases the rates to curb inflation as they promised. Good for them. A few months ago we had serious "economists" arguing in favor of funding nation states with endless money printing, they even [congresses](https://www.mmtconference.eu/) about this idea

Reverend_Renegade

Bottom may come in when the FED stops raising rates.

Blex98

Some people think that if the recession becomes official, the inflation might peak and the FED will pivot and start the money printer again, giving everyone cheap $$. At least that seems to be the current narrative

Banalfarmer-goldhnds

Or they think it was created by a FED working group as a trap

Waffenstanz

Yes, so anything can happen after the FED meeting just like the last time.

vattenj

Sure, GS traders are already in the market since 2011, JPM is late but they are testing too. Banks always benefit from a recession since they have unlimited funding from FED (In fact FED is actually controlled by banks)

CryptoNewsAccountKeK

It's just feeling lol, if people feel confident they will invest, if not they will retreat Inflation is high but the FED is scrambling to stop it, and people feel like we probably hit the bottom, Idk we might have, we might have not, fuck knows anyway. No one knows what is happening ever, i just keep dcaing into btc and kda and chill Stressing over this would cost me healthcare, and I am in a free healthcare country

Beyonderr

The US midterms are at the end of the year, right? That is a prime reason why I expect a pump. In my opinion the timing of the FED's actions are heavily correlated with politics...

martind170

I think we need to wait for the FED meeting, may be then it is possible.

MrBluoe

FED joins the room.

oscarsebe

I thought that after the last CPI report price of the bitcoin will gonna dump, but i was very surprise to see the reversal. Now i am waiting that the next FED meeting how they gonna increase the rate this time.

vattenj

And that is exactly what FED do, align with them, should never go wrong

Cryptlsch

Most likely a few points hike. Like 25 or max 50. There's also different bonds the ECB and/or FED that are issued for banks. This way the banks get money by buying a bond increasing it's value sometimes even x10. And with no interest (or even beneficial) payment it becomes a pyramid of banks buying new bonds to pay off old bonds, bonds is basicly just debt. So bonds/debt is mostly a 'contract' that is x amount is being lend out with x amount interest % and with a repayment time of x amount of days. The amount of time you have before banks need to repay their borrowed money is currently being extended because banks can keep borrowing new money so they don't have yet to pay back the money that they borrowed. At some point some companie(s) will go insolvent, or entire countries can default, all which have continental and possible worldwide disruption

Reverend_Renegade

The recession hasn't even come yet and frankly I hope it doesn't after having gone through the last one. Point being, until the FED can get inflation under control they will continue to raise rates or reset / replace the current system with a CBDC. Look for "identity verification." https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/money-and-payments-discussion-paper.htm There have been some people who have said that if the dollar get wiped out anyone holding it as a store of value will lose everything. This is obviously a far fetched theory but there's no problem in planning for an uncertain future regarding reserve currencies.

Surfif456

This is an amazing opportunity to short IMO. We are still in a Global recession and more FED hikes are coming soon.

teh_d3ac0n

Sure and when FED announces 100 base points here comes mensurating candles

accersitus42

>I don't think you know what I'm advocating for. The problem with a debt based inflation driven economy is that it encourages the very behavior you seek to condemn. This is r/Bitcoin. The economy needs balance. Near 100% freedom and near 100% control are both recipes for disaster. The US economy is too close to 100% freedom for the wrong people causing the majority of the instability. Europe for the most part has a mix of Freedom and Control that prevents the greatest problems of both control and freedom. This is why Europe is not on the verge of collapse the way the US is. This allows the European economy to benefit from the freedom at the same time as it can regulate out the impulses that would be destructive for the economy. This kind of policy is not a simple binary question, it's a question of where you are on a scale, and going too far in either direction causes big problems. >I don't really care if I'm using metric or imperial when I'm measuring distances. I don't really care about using Bitcoin or gold to measure value. I just want a common measurement of value that doesn't change everyday on the whim of a select few people at the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve isn't even a part of the government. This is where I think we disagree. I think you put way to much blame on the FED, and way to little on the Corporations who hold the actual power in US economy and politics. You are focusing on a scapegoat, and not on the corporations that are robbing the American population blind. Also, if you want a common measurement of value that doesn't change every day, that is most currencies out there. Most currencies are stable within their own economy. If a loaf of bread costs $1 today, you can be pretty certain it will cost $1 in three months as well (for most of the western world). Inflation usually happens at predictable intervals (often 2 times a year, July 1st, and January 1st) unless some extraordinary issues are causing supply problems (and in that case prices go up no matter what the currency is "worth"). If the exchange rate between $ and € changes, it doesn't really effect most people. Exchange rates function as a "gearbox" between economies, it's not about assigning a value to the currency, it's about the balance between imports and exports, and the efficiency of the economy. The more efficient an economy is, the higher they can allow their currency to be "valued" and still be competitive with exports, and the increased currency value can be leveraged for better deals on imports. Inefficient counties can devalue their currency to remain competitive, but that can also reduce the standard of living for the population as they have less opportunity to buy imports, unless the country is self sufficient with many luxury products. The US$ is and anomaly since the "value" of the US$ is artificially inflated by demand because it is the reserve currency, and the currency oil and gas is traded with. This is in some ways a strength for the US, but also a crippling weakness for US manufacturing that is priced out of competition because the inflated $ value is greater than the production efficiency in The US >You can't centrally plan your way out of this mess. That's how we got into this mess in the first place. The US economy hasn't been planned in 50 years, it's reactionary. If they had a plan other than "give the power to the corporations", the US wouldn't be in the state it is. Government could have instituted an inflation adjusted federal minimum wage 50 years ago instead of deregulating, and the US population would have been a lot wealthier except for the large corporations who would still have been filthy rich, just not quite as wealthy as now because they would have needed to pay more wages. Allowing the corporations to stagnate wages and crack down on unions has probably done some of the worst harm to the US economy of everything. If you still believe the underlying issue is the FED, then I wish you good luck going forward, but I don't think we'll agree here.

daBiggaFigga

All good questions. IntoTheBlocks has some nice historical correlation charts between BTC/ETH and the stock indexes. Both Russell and NASDAQ take turns being highly correlated on the dips YTD, while they almost all jump in on the consecutive pump days. It's also interesting to see them all move the same after a FED interest hike announcement. But this is crypto's first stock bear market, so no one knows. All the TA from the previous crypto crashes, like in 2018, can be thrown out the window. I'm not even going to try to guess the bottom and just plan to DCA and accumulate through this cycle. Mostly just to HODL, but also lending some since I know there are degens out there that are going to gamble in this market.

hcollector

The next rate hike will be announced soon by the FED and it's going to be minimum 75bps and possibly 100bps given the 9.1% inflation rise. This range isn't going to hold.

dfvChrome

I am also waiting for some of my order to hit, hopefully after next FED meeting.

signallyCall70

But i not wanting the Matic pump, right not i am mean in the buying mode for the matic. Hopefully that after the FED meeting it will fall from there and gives me some better buying opportunity.

ZiraDev

yeah, this small spike surprised me also... It just doesn't make sense. We'll see end of July what the FED will report, but I think we already know

AbsoIution

Yeah prices are still good even though they have gone up 5-10% they are still down 50%... I've seen a lot of people talking about the 26th/27th of this month for some FED announcement or some shit which is projected to indicate more accurate inflation numbers? And which might mean a dip, but idk I'm not American and don't really follow it.

danielgmnh

I will take my chances after the next FED meeting, let see.

Scullyx

People still think crypto market isnt controlled by the same algos that move tech stocks lol. Its just an oversold rally across all markets, only the FED decides if its gonna be another bear market rally or some sustained recovery

Prized-Man

This recession won't be your typical "text book recession" that much is clear. Let's see what the FED says on 27th

mecca666

There is zero real reason for the merge to cause a pump. Giant dump inc around the FED rate announcement.

SYgEnDsT

It looks like energy prices will keep pressuring CPI and there is nothing FED can do.

fwast

Probably gonna be a flat week, and the last week of the month is going to be where all eyes should be with the FED meeting.

sugarduck99

As long as FED doesnt announce QE, we will not see new ath.

xmister85

My personal opinion is that we are already into a global recession and the people doesn't need a FED announcement to know that. They know simply by the fact that money vanishes faster from their bank accounts and wallets and the number of items are smaller than before

Comfortable_Kiwi_290

Yes. FED will raise rates till inflation comes under control and will pivot (reduce rates) only when inflation tops and starts coming down.

Shaglock

How low would this dump go? Do you think 20K will hold? Will we ever see 19K again before FED rate hike end of month?

Shaglock

How low would this dump go? Do you think 20K will hold? Will we ever see 19K again before FED rate hike end of month?

AffectionateCanary25

PCE from month to month is decreasing and likely peaked in June. That metric has more weight to the FED than CPI. Keep in mind, most of the FED's indicators are lagging. The acceleration of inflation is likely in disinflation trend (we just don't have the numbers to support this). Everyone knew that inflation would be caused by the FED back in 2020, but that took **18 months** to manifest in the data. I do think earnings are going to take a hit and crypto will likely follow. But we're getting to a point where people and companies have so much cash waiting for the stormclouds to part. You might as well buy whatever stock/crypto you want in September (just buy something you know will be around 5 years from now). The FED has crushed demand, they crushed the bond market, they crushed the 401ks. The last thing to crush is housing, which is good, too many assholes buying houses and painting the kitchen only to sell the house again for 25% profit 6 months later. Those assholes deserve to get wrecked and should be stuck with a 400k house that is worth 240k. The FED doesn't care about your portfolio or home-equity but there is something that they are really destroying... Emerging markets, the dollar has strengthened considerably as the flight to safety as more countries default and more civil unrest (food and energy shortages). The world may actually need more dollars to stabilize. I see 75bps this month, then maybe another 50/75bps in August then a pause. I agree with the FED that the labor market is strong, so although our consumption (70% of our GDP) may print a negative GDP we are working out way back to trend. The world may be doing poorly but the U.S. is positioned to do benefit regardless. Aren't you glad we didn't go 100% renewables? We would have been fucked like Germany.

ethereumhodler

I don’t think FED will stop rising rates. They have inflation to fight and they are more likely ready to sacrifice the economy than the US dollar. I do believe that they will chikened out at some point but not before things get way worse

FinFree4Ever

The FED will raise rates until they break something. The "new normal" should be 4-6% for at least the next 5 years.

poomata

The government can’t service their debt if the FED “raises rates to the sky”. >Stuck between a rock and a hard place>, an inevitable outcome.

partymsl

Everyone except the FED knew that we are in a recession just they have been the constant deniers and soon they have to accept the reality too.

Prized-Man

Wait till the FED announcement. I don't expect a massive drop (like some do) but it'll drop anyway *as usual*

lifenvelope

Hoping here too for a official recession! Will put pressure on FED to be less hawkish

badadadok

My financial advisor works at a DVD rental store as a janitor. He says the FED will increase interest rates by 400 basis points.

rootpl

Just wait for next FED figures for interest rates and inflation and I'll go back down again like every month after the announcement in the last few months.

Prized-Man

Hmm tbh I personally don't think that we will stay like this till 2024. "Suppose" FED eases up next month then I fully expect BTC to pump too!

w00tangel

The ones in charge of their stablecoin issuing like Maker DAO actually in theory have infinite money. Just like FED and ECB. As long as your colateral covers it, no problem at all.

w00tangel

Actually yes. The beginning of the end game actually just happened recently. Big banks usually borrow money from central banks, that is the purpose of existance of FED, ECB and the like. A few days ago, for the first time in the history, one of the largest banks in the world Societe Generale applied to Maker DAO for a loan instead of the central bank. They tokenized their AAA credit rafting bonds as ERC-20 tokens and request ed Maker DAO to take them as colateral for DAI loan. They will sell the DAI for USD and give out credit to retail, earn difference between the yield and repay their loan to Maker DAO. This is the first step. First time a DAO took over the role of the central bank as issuer to the retail bank. If this caches on, for the first time in the history, central banks will no longer have the monopoly and will have to compete on the market with their rates. https://thecryptotime.com/french-bank-societe-generale-applies-for-30-million-loan-from-maker-dao/

Romsel87

Nobody knows. Debt to GDP ratio is around 135% in the United States. That number should be around (maximum) 77%. If the economy is in the shitter and debt cannot be payed back, the FED has no choice to "save the economy" with money printing. If im wrong here, somebody correct me.

Tell-Honest

FED likely increasing rates by a full point soon I expect another dump. I’ll probably load up a bit more then. Still doing my regular DCA but if we see some big red dongs I’m ready to switch some more dirty FIAT over to ETH.

Socalwarrior485

Friedman is referring to longer term. The FED reserve is “independent” from the executive. Money supply doesn’t immediately increase inflation because it must be lent and spent to have an effect. That’s why QE can often be seen as “pushing on a string”. It can take 3-5 years to feel the effect of loosening lending in consumer prices. Significant deficit spending can have a much more immediate effect (1-2 years) The real problem is that once inflation takes hold, it requires a LOT of pain to control it again. JPow should have not done the level of QE that drove mortgage rates to all time lows. It fueled all kinds of speculation in crazy markets. All of that money needs to evaporate. We are talking trillions.

Just_Another_AI

>are you saying we should have just let it collapse? Yes! "Too big to fail" should not exist - the correct phrase is fuck around and find out; the big banks fucked around because they knew that they would be bailed out. They had no downside. If you ran a responsible bank, you were gobbled up in an acquisition by a much larger, faster-growing irresponsible bank. This sort of behavior ahould not be rewarded, yet it was. With all the FED's additional spending via long-term qualitative easing and holding the interest rates near zero for over a decade, ahat we're seeing now is that the fallout from 07/08 never actually ended anyway - they kicked the can down to road to today and now the chickens are coming home to roost

Xen7963

Do you really believe in FED who caused market up and down?

throeaewae

You’re nitpicking. When people say the FED they’re clearly talking about the federal government. Don’t be stupid

TranquilTrader

Sure, it holds for any asset that does not actually produce anything. Profitable companies as assets are a bit different story though. For now Bitcoin is only a very high risk speculative asset, and not even close to a monetary system. For it to reach a monetary system status and to be able to even try to dethrone the fiat currencies one would need to solve the PoL (problem of lending). Money lending requires inflation of the currency to cover the risk of defaulting borrowers, some of them will always default. What's going to happen to Bitcoin no one knows. Perhaps we end up in a depression and massive deflation due to the FED having to pull trillions of dollars out of the market. They blew up their balance sheet and now they have to reduce it. In that outcome Bitcoin would continue the downwards trend (with pretty much every other asset).

Romsel87

The FED is losing credibility. Debt to GDP is fucked. They can tighten untill they can't. Then money printer goes brrrrr again and we're back on track, 21 million divided by infinity.

ChrimsonChin988

Funny that people are still so obsessed with halving cycles. Truth is, they matter a lot less than they used to. In 2016, inflation rate dropped from 8% to 4%. That's a significant difference. Next halving cycle, inflation rate will drop from 1.6% to .8%. Quite insignificant. What is far more important to Bitcoin price short-term, is what the FED's doing.

Ill-Addition2024

I'm waiting for Btc to be at 10k to buy 0.1 btc. Already bought bags at 28k and now at 20k. Recesion is coming in a week there is a FED meeting going on.

w00tangel

The problem is they don't have competitors. That's not democracy or res-publica. The world has gone to shit and a few smart people came up with idea how to save it. No, central banks should not have unlimited power and monopoly over "money". It should belong to the people. Where do you think the inflation came from? It is literally a product of mass monetary expansion of FED and ECB. Do you think u elected official should have such power?

moldyjellybean

If you pick the best time to ipo into a pumped market, QE, when the FED was buying everything, when interest rates were near 0 everyone was stuck inside with free stimulus checks , pp loans and free money into the biggest crypto run ever . If all those lineup then Coinbase can make a profit. In a normal market or bear market they are going to have their troubles, you’ll see at the next report date and the next half dozen

w00tangel

Yesterday, Societe Generale, one of the largest banks in the world, showed a middle finger to the central banks, tokenized their bonds as ERC-20 tokens and submitted a proposal to Maker DAO to deposit their bonds in exchange for DAI tokens loan they can exchange for USD and give out credit to retail with it. This was a first time in the history that a DAO took over the role of a central bank (think FED or ECB) and became a competitor to central banks. It marks the beginning of the endgame. What Satoshi dreamed of. A world of decentralized finance where central banks actually have to compete on the market.

Elephant810

No worries, it made me laugh too. The FED will do FED things, macro econ 101 - the party has gotten too wild so they gotta take away the punch bowl. The sobriety will be painful but most will survive. Punch bowl will be back and the party will start anew… and the cycle will repeat.

__SpeedRacer__

Sorry for the snarky comment, but I couldn't resist :D You have a point, inflation is rampant now, but it will slow doan. The FED and other Central Banks around the world won't let it get to hyperinflation or anything like that. Recession with fix inflation and energy prices soon enough.

Smiling_Jack_

This is just another crypto winter, just as the last bull run was just another bull run that, surprise surprise, wasn't "Different This Time". Stack sats, stay away from most alts, and just wait for the next BTC halvening to expand your portfolio again. "But Jack, BTC only existed in a secular bull market before!" I still vividly remember the .com bubble and subsequent crash. Still get PTSD from the '08 crisis ( a crisis for which we never actually recovered, but that's a story for a different time). And I remember when the US FED did the unfathomable by swooping in and supporting every single credit market in the country as the economy literally shut down during March 2020. Are we headed for stagflation? Most likely. The Fed will have no choice but to pivot by early 2023 due to the sheer cost of the $170 TRILLION dollars in unfunded liabilities. But I know this: In a post-2008 era JPow, now central banker to the world, has **no choice** but to make that money printer go brr. He can stop for a hot minute, but the tap needs to be opened again, and stay open, perpetually. The math demands it. And we all already know what the BTC trendline looks like during the era of QE and laughably low interest rates. Debasement (not to be confused with inflation) compels those holding excess wealth to put that money somewhere.

obsidianmantis

Congress gave the FED the power to print money but its ownership is dictated by stock held by various banks.

velhamo

Why are you in this sub if you're "impressed" by "credentials"? Wrong place, or just trolling? Satoshi Nakamoto has no credentials compared to any FED governor. Jerome Powell said again and again that inflation will be "transitory". Do you still trust his credentials? I'm willing to bet you're an overweight, woke American trying to lecture a guy who is nothing of those things. :)

velhamo

You're in the wrong sub, because for all I know, Satoshi Nakamoto could be an armchair Redditor. He doesn't have the same credentials as FED governors.

velhamo

You're in the wrong sub if you're going to bring up "credentials". What kind of credentials does Satoshi Nakamoto compared to Jerome Powell? /r/FED is your place

velhamo

No, the FED was a massive inflation denier back then. Your memory is not that good. Now enjoy getting poorer and poorer, all while attacking me for telling you the truth... You started insulting me first, remember? Had a bad day with your boss?

More-Philosophy-8603

Government made me lose my money in stocks. Fuck the FED

tarix76

What will really blow your mind is that which cash you hold also matters. When the FED is as hawkish as it is now everyone wants to flood into USD. Then yen is normally a safe-haven currency in risk-off times but due to changes in monitary policy its gotten absolutely crushed. (Check out the USDJPY chart for the year.) If you want to go deeper down the fiat rabbit hole look up a carry trade. There are pairs you can trade in one direction that will pay you daily because of the interest rate differences between two governments. IMHO its important to understand the fiat world if you want to understand the true power of Bitcoin.

stanceski

I mean there are so many things that positively hit the bitcoin and pump that. Start with the bitcoin halving year and then the FED printing and the support of the Musk is well.

BillsFannn

For me it’s cypherium, CPH. Pairing up with the FED would help

liberty2425

I am happy that you made the entry into the bitcoin at the perfect time. And last year was the halving year for the bitcoin and the FED printer was also printing some big money is well.

InternetStrang3r

Why are we pumping? CPI came in high, FED will be raising rates again later this month and the stock market is still red... What am I missing?

stickyricebaby

I mean there were so many things for the bitcoin all time high in the last year, But yes the biggest one was the FED as they were printing the unlimited money and now we are facing the issue.

symmetric69

This is one of the most low vol fraudulent pumps of this year, last time they did that we tanked hard couple weeks later. BTW, not believing in any of the FED bullshit that "oh no we don't want 100 BPS now, changed our minds"; only suckers believe this

Clash_My_Clans

FED: Make every American an instant trillionaire

nomadwheel

How about this thesis: people know that inflation numbers from June published in July where bad (crude price etc.) so was priced in the market even if FED raise interest by .75, next step in August will the cpi number be lower as we all know some supply issues resolved and crude price under 100$ in July. FED will raise interest by .25 and September will not raise at all, bull will begin in September 2022.

CryptoDad2100

FED be like fuck you crypto watch my printer go brr

goescrbit

I think FED were the ones who ran their printer with the speed in the past, And now we are facing the issue of that printer but problem is they have to come out with some better solution.

RealVoldemort

When you say "fear and reaction to what us gov is doing" you mean the FED or crypto regulation?

Omgbrainerror

One thing you missed is the rent and its importance for CPI. Rent is sticky and always lags behind compared to other inflation metrics in CPI. There is always demand for rent house / apartments. The rent price going down is extremly unlikely. The rent prices are like food / energy the point which destroy most of consumer purchasing power. Personally i expect the rent inflation to continue full speed ahead, as FED has no way to lower rent prices.

btce1502

I mean now people are not even trusting the number of the FED here.

Aerith_Gainsborough_

What was BTC's price when the FED claimed to have infinite cash in their reserves?