So as it turns out we are roughly ~300 USD away from pre hamster flu ATH for the #SP500, this means we are very close to erase all artificial gains made by printing billions of dollars indiscriminately, but worry not, the #FED frens sold back in Dec so they can buy you cheap today 🤷♂️
USD is backed by trust in the government/FED, which power is secured through USA's military domination. Bitcoin is backed by trust through the blockchain. Its an digital ledger that is immutable, yet malleable enough to successfully adapt itself into whatever it needs to turn into overtime through coding.
Bitcoin is digital information money. It is bulletproof. No need to defend with military and political forces, which is necessary for metal or paper information money. Backed by nothing is its strength. Persistency of holders eats the weak parts of concurrent money. Freshly printed fiat money flows partly into Bitcoin scares the FED is the new reality that the fiat money is these days backed by Bitcoin. More individuals, banks and companies will inevitably back some value in bitcoin. It stabilizes the system.
The cycle always was able to ride the waves of the stockmarket or external factors, but now we are probably going into a recession and that means new factors to consider. Historicly, the stockmarket crashes hard when the FED pivots, as it looks now, next year they will pivot, we might be looking into a historicly long bear market for BTC. Either way, I don't wanna look at it short term, but long term 10-15 years, which I am still bullish on.
>So in the debt defaults, the "trust" in the system is undermined? Trust in counterparties is undermined. And all debt has counterparties with an uncertain web of exposures to other counterparties. Think of the GFC in 2008 wherein the FED couldn't let AIG fail without a domino of contagion spreading throughout the globe. Similarly, the FED erects emergency lending programs when banks aren't willing to lend to each other. Why aren't they willing to lend to each other? Uncertain counterparty risk. That said, I don't see the probability of a deflationary debt default spiral being that high, primarily because the FED will prevent that from happening by papering over it with the only emergency tool they have, balance sheet expansion, which is inflationary. I think Booth's comments that 'everything is good for Bitcoin' addresses deflationary recession/depression out of the need to address 'everything', but not sure if he's assigned a probability to that actually happening.
Inflation is the expansion of the currency. Bitcoin only expands slightly so has a slight inflation. Rising prices are the result of inflation. Dollars get created from Debt instruments. The treasury bond is raised by the treasury and PAYS an interest rate. The FED buys the treasury with dollars they create out of thin air and give those dollars to the government so they can spend them into the economy. Since the government gets access to the money first, the prices are still lower. by the time us schmucks get the pay raise, the prices have already adjusted to the new inflation. Inflation is the hidden tax we pay. Government is not going to want to give up their ability to spend money they don't have to earn or tax for.
Thanks man! Its nice to see it appreciated! Makes the 3 hours I spent on it this weekend not feel like a waste. I need to figure out faster methods to cut some of the work out of it, but I think with what I learned from this project then I could do it in half the time now. If I stop being too lazy to look up a tutorial for auto tracking, then I can proly cut the time much lower. But for now already having this build, I think I can easily swap out the FED, Chinese flag, and WEF symbols with anything else related to things attacking Bitcoin, like say a shitcoin who's owner is dumbass with a campaign trying to change the code away from the very thing that gives its network the power it has
>Imagine being a banker and thinking "yeah, I have an important job and I'm useful to society" Most bankers don't even understand that its the banks that inflate the money supply via the loan creation process. Most believe that they're intermediaries, accepting deposits and then coordinating lending/borrowing of those deposits. IF the FED reserve and its banking cartel didn't have monopoly privilege's to create new money out of thin air, then banks would necessarily perform that function. Banks would, however, separate that function into deposits that are held as a custodian, and deposits that are lent/borrowed, with the depositor making the decision to deposit into either side of that equation. One side is like depositing into a safety deposit box. The other side is like depositing money that will knowingly have higher risk because it is being lent out with the bank as an intermediary. Both of those scenarios are a fiction under our current FedReserve banking cartel.
Sure the price dumping sucks, but what really annoys me is being slave to the FED. I know that it's a consequence of an asset that becomes "too" big. But still.. being a slave to their words and decisions is not a good feeling
Well, that really can't happen (a return to 90's prices). Even if the FED achieves its goals and "brings inflation back down", that doesn't mean that today's prices will fall back to where they were years or decades ago. That would require deflation. When we bring inflation down, that simply means we are slowing the rate of currency debasement, not changing directions and causing the currency to become more valuable. In a fiat system like ours, the purchasing power of the currency is always "down and to the right" (but this isn't inherently a bad thing if wages and productivity are increasing, i.e.. economic growth.) Think of it like a balloon you can only blow air into but not release air from. You can blow it up quickly or slowly, but the balloon can only get bigger, that is, until it pops. Generally, hard assets (and commodities) tend to see price appreciation that tracks inflation (there is a lot nuance to the reasons why). BTC is very hard to predict in that way though, especially because a large part of the population has no idea what it is, and among those people that do know what it is, many of them (many of whom are perfectly intelligent) reject it outright as a real asset, commodity or money. It will have to gain widespread adoption and trust, a sea change across society for all intents, for it to really succeed over the decades to come. If that doesn't happen, the BTC price could certainly retract despite inflation.
The FED and ECB are raising rates and every risky marked is getting rekt. Is this the bottom? Probably not. Expand your time horizon, play the lottery if you want to get rich quick. DCA and focus on living your life and we'll see each other on Saturn in few decades
The FED doesn't print USD as much as they want to, that's some USSR/China propaganda I don't believe in, and I'm from the other side of the USA background. They might adjust here and there but they never let it out of control like some other bankrupt/corrupt countries. So I do believe that BTC will gain it's deserved place, but USD is not going to cost 1 Indian Rupee, you can forget that.
I don't need the media to tell me anything. I just listened to his positions from his own mouth. I can't bring myself to vote for someone who calls themselves a doctor yet denies evolution. You can't just cherry pick facts you like and ignore others. He's right about the FED but a broken clock overall.
About banking: It's not BTC vs Banks, but BTC vs Central Banks. Secondly: Central Banks, like the Federal Reserve (FED and the European Central Bank (ECB) aren't necessarily inherently evil. Especially the FED hasn't done that much of a bad job. Obviously some criticism is very accurate but please try to remain rational. There are a TON of rich people that aren't aware of bitcoin, if they only hear these ignorant people complaining about stuff they barely understand, they will view bitcoin as a cult movement that's driven by mostly young people. However, whats important to understand is that the idea of a central bank has historically always been heavily opposed. But still, before central banking it didn't look pretty either. Bitcoin is a technology that allows us to not need a bank. We simply store or future buying power in bitcoin, and since the current paper money system will always opt for inflation even though our interest rates have gone to shit, you are basically forced to invest your money if you want to save it overtime. The funny thing currently, is that our paper money system has run into an inevitable end stage, and to prevent this, governments are trying to digitize the current money by implementing CBDC's. There have been thousands of paper money systems in the past, and every single one of them ended in zero. The interesting paper money systems that are very identical to the current USD (which is the world's current "central" currency) are: the dutch Guilder pre-industrial revolution and the British Pound post-industrial revolution. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) are currently in development, but you'll only hear about it if you actively searched for it yourself. CBDC's are basically an imitation of Bitcoin. The thing with bitcoin is, that its like a natural resource in terms of market mechanics. Nobody really owns it, which means that there is no "single point of failure". If you took the gold price after ex-president Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1973 (which was inevitable) and you applied the stock-to-flow model to golds future price potential, you would have an rather accurate prediction. The same is applied to bitcoin, and it continues to follow it quite well. What is money? It has 3 functions: 1. Store of value (your buying power remains/increases over longer time frames) 2. Unit of Account (you can use money to count and compare goods and services. The lower the price volatility, the better it fulfills its job as a Unit of Account) 3. Medium of Exchange (how efficient can this money be handed over from one to another) Bitcoin, at its current stage, isn't necessarily meant to be a medium of exchange. There is only one country in the whole world that adopted bitcoin as legal tender. (el Salvador) The rest might follow, but most developed countries will probably not follow el Salvador. (But might be forced eventually, who knows. The world has been on a gold standard during times of massive technological development). Contrary, if you want to transact one billion dollars to the other side of the solar system, it can be done instantaneously without any hassle. (Golds biggest problem historically speaking, was its weight. This is why paper money was invented in China around the year 900) Bitcoin is also not good as a unit of account since it has been a volatile asset. Only until recently volatility has calmed down, but it might pick up again soon. However, you can imagine that the more money flows into a certain asset, the harder speculators will have to "work" for it to remain in price volatility. I am fairly certain bitcoin will reach a stage where it will be stable enough for it to function as a usable money. Bitcoin's base layer is currently designed to function as a store of value for the most part. Because central banks aim for an annual inflation, despite having fairly limited tools to control this inflation + the fact that they basically depleted all the tools that could effect inflation, you can say with 99.99% certainty that the current money will inflate to shit. Meanwhile, bitcoin is set up in a way to be deflationary. It does this by the halving event that will half the amount of bitcoin that is mined roughly every 4 years. Money also has to consist of certain characteristics. It'll take me way too long to explain it all, but google the following: The characteristics of Money - BTC vs GOLD vs FIAT Ask me anything. If you have things that might make you doubt bitcoins future, please tell me. ,
They are spokesmen for the FED, they are selling you on fiat, they don’t hold any paper money, they own treasury notes and stocks, they need this system to stay, they have a fiat bias because everything they own is tied to it.
BTC will keep looking for new ranges with Mt. Goxx coming and if the recession will hit the US, causing the FED to pivot. The ETF decision has been postponed just far enough into the future to look "close" and "possible", while anything can happen inbetween yet.
Times of stable value has long gone since the removal of gold standard. Now FED is driving waves and waves of QE and suddenly tightened drastically after they saw inflation shoot up. Nothing is going to be stable under such kind of modern monetary policy. Your time frame is too short I think Satoshi picked 4 years for a reason, so that most of the speculators would not have patient for such a long time frame, they would just been wiped out and will not affect bitcoin's long term fundamentals It is not about transfer money, but holding an asset that you can liquidate anytime into any currency. Name another asset that has this kind of international reach? Even USD or US government bond can not, they don't trade during weekends
Next week is the annual FED meeting in Jackson Hole: "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy." It will be held Aug. 24-26. At this annual economic policy symposium dozens of central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world will discuss and decide what way should the World Economy go for the next 12 months. Black Rock either perfectly timed their application or I'll start to believe big corporations function on pure luck.
I would advice to let go of feelings. If it looks like it is more profitable to exit and then re-enter then do it. I got lucky on my investment and was still breaking even with the FED minutes dip. I sold and luckily missed the Evergrande dip. I waited for a price I liked and re-enter the market yesterday. Hodling only works for BTC. Don't be stubborn with the rest of the coins.
This right here. In the previous low years we didn't have the kind of market conditions we have today. Mind you, inflation is still rampant and the FED is still hiking interest rates. I still don't think we've see the end of the hurt just yet. There's more to come.
The FED is trying to suck liquidity out of all risk assets right now in order to tame inflation. The government will be shooting themselves in the foot with regard to the inflation fight if they approve something that causes crypto markets to take off right now. I would expect these ETF’s to all get approved roughly around the same time as rate cuts start.
I have a different perspective. We came from a total crypto market cap of $3T in 2021, sitting now around $1T. A 10x would take the whole market to $10T. With appr. 50% dominance BTC would be around $250k. With a BTC ETF at the horizon, the FED to stop rate hikes and inflation going down, I can imagine this to happen.
I've held back on buying crypto the last few months and feel really good about it. I've been setting aside my typical DCA until the FED figures out what their job is and how to do it. I think I could be ready for this come back.
I think the recession is the period created by bankers who want to buy cheap assets(only they have access to large amount of cash during a recession). But now more and more rich people get to know this trick, they might act before bankers do, it might not develop following other mainstream investments During the last FED rate hike cycle, bitcoin did not change its pattern of 4 year cycle
I'm not sure, looking at the euro zone it seems like the ECB have been quite effective in bringing inflation under control, they certainly aren't going to raise interest rates as hard as the FED and force a recession. Figures released today in France show food prices falling by 7%, this was done by putting pressure on the producers and distributors rather than the consumer. Saying that, the UK looks likely to struggle for a while but then again they are no longer in Europe. The asian market isn't that bad either, China is struggling but it has been for quite a few years and doesn't seem to drag the rest of the market down. The middle east is also keeping its head above water.
We were crabbing at 30k, 29k. Now it seems 28k is the level. Imo we going vack to 25k where we were before spot etf hype. And taking into account FED declarations about rates and how strong job market at US is, we gona see 20k too and below, I believe. Warm up ur reserve fiat money, buying opportunities incoming.
Besides the yearlong conspiracy theories about Bitcoin being a CIA development and the 1m coins held by Satoshi are more or less the future treasury of the FED, of course they could easily develop such a product - there are plenty of clones.
Hey there, I generally believe that this halving will be a bit different than the other ones. I do expect volatility before and after that event, however not necessarily to the upside. The thing about this halving is the simple fact that everyone is aware of it this time. And I mean everyone. The most basic rule in this game is that the vast majority loses. According to statistics we're somewhere between 90-95% of people losing money in the markets. Depending on the field of course. Now, guess what will happen when you have a date where the majority are gonna be thinking "ohhh bitcoin halving, time to buy". You will most likely see the exact opposite. Having seen this time and time again, a selloff is the more likely option. Speaking from experience. Look at the XRP court case pump for example. This thing pumped 80% in a day, sure, but it's bleeding and bleeding out and will continue doing so, until reaching the original point before the pump and probably going even lower. Or, smaller example, which I shorted personally. The Aptos token (APT), if you are aware of it, announced a partnership with Microsoft. Big deal, price pumped 15% in a few minutes, people euphoric like crazy and buying, thinking this is the next big thing. And what happened in just 2 weeks? Price recovered all those gains and now stands even lower than before that pump. And I got to enter a lovely short position while the majority, who bought, got rekt. It doesn't matter that much if we're in a recession or not or what the FED is doing or whatever. What matters the most is that 90% of people are going to get rekt. Always, no exceptions. And Bitcoin is a master at that, trust me. Now, take that into the context of the halving event and you can make out what will more likely happen.
The FED just cancelled the recession because everyone is doing great! Cars are cheap, homes a breeze and food costs have plummeted, and if you’re making under $100,000 a year you’re rich! While absolutely none of the above is reality, odd are this halving event is probably priced in this time and might see. Nominal spike toward $35k imo , but nowhere near the stimulus infused ATH. At least not for the reason of halving. Worldwide financial chaos? Then you might as people would flee to it.
Just going after logic: The FED is looking to hike until early 2024 at the worst, meaning that we could have a recession from early-mid 2024 in the worst case. The BTC Halving will be in April and the bull market has historically begun 6-8 months later. Meaning late 2024. If we are lucky, the bull market could actually coincide with a economical recovery from a recession, which would be even more bullish.
Hopefully the jittery BS from the FOMC minutes will be forgotten soon enough. Some want higher rates, while others want to keep rates stable. All this, while the FED can print money willy nilly and raise inflation anyway. BTC solves this.
The FED says, it is trying to create a soft landing but if they "fail" by crashing the markets, they can say: "Well, we were too restrictive because our tools are too powerful,..." and then ease again. They can frame it as a win as long as they don't let inflation continue. So they will error on the too many hikes side rather than too few.
Well that's exactly what the FED wants to see. Bigger unemployment and less risky companies. The rate hikes are working as intended while the overall market still remains fairly strong. Looks like we are going to have a soft landing. But I don't want to get my hopes too high, it can all go downhill very very fast
Agree that a CBDC is technically very difficult if not impossible to implement upon the current USD FED RES system - this of course gives the Chinese a huge advantage in implementatioon- an advantage which they have seized- already operating their own CBDC (DCEP) which enables international payments outside of the USD SWIFT legacy hegemony. CBDCs have several disadvantages from a citizens point of view- but from a centralised autocracies viewpoint they increase efficiency and monetary leverage and surveillance. USD vs DCEP Vs BTC. Personally I prefer BTC because it gives ME superior monetary sovereignty and freedoom but we have to recoognise the CCP may see things differently and the CCP now leads the world in mercantile power and can legitimately consider it logical to seek global monetary hegemony or at least independence from the USD fiat debt slavery bankers cartel.
Inflation is proportional to currency in circulation divided by production of goods and services. When money is printed without production, inflation will increase. That is why the United States isn’t any different from China currently. The political agents print large sums of money without correlating production. Unfortunately the FED is no more equipped than the CCP to manage to inevitable inflationary consequences. Both are leveraging currency for political purposes, which will result in a global inflationary crisis.
the guy who made the most money from holding up a sign was back in 2011, he held up a sign that said "Stop the FED! Use Bitcoins", he was paid 32 btc from one person and got an additional 60 btc from other people. made 92 btc total.
The problem with multi-purpose chains is that "transfer of value" is the least interesting because least profitable transaction on the blockchain, so it will be the first one that will be dialed back in its priority when the blockchain reaches its limits. If you want 100% of the blockchain-speed to go to transactions, it has to be a single use-case chain. Stable-coins have the issue that they are tied to a FIAT-currency, so they will never be truly independent international currencies. FED using their Printer however they want makes the USD a terrible currency, so why would tying a blockchain to that terrible value improve crypto? Imho it won't. Having it loosely tied to all currencies on earth because it has an exchange rate with every currency that exists, will create a much better global currency. Doge was created as a joke, but developed into a real currency. Just like Bitcoin was created as a currency but developed into gold. Or like twitter was created to be a social media platform but got developed into shit. SHIB sees a lot of hype, but that does not change the fact that 99.9999999999% of all NFTs that have ever been minted are worthless. Even the most hyped NFT collections lost the vast majority of their value and it does not look like anyone will ever get hyped about buying Yachting Apes... Same will happen to everyone who bought NFTs on Shib... It's just empty hype bubbles due to their aggressive and manipulative marketing. But I am invested in Doge because I believe it can be a global currency. I am not invested in Shib because I do not believe that it solves any real world problem better than any of its competitors. They only copy other blockchains, have no unique selling point and have not been able to solve any problem better than any of their competitors. Imho it is a scam.
His portfolio real value is way less, that figure is the projected value in case the underline security/index goes to 0 Plus the FED is not going to sit with a thumb in their ass this time like 2007 and they have given clues about it with the 2020 printing spree
Burry is making a bet based on what the FED is doing. We just had the biggest monetary expansion in the history of finance we are currently experiencing the beginnings of the biggest draw down in liquidity in the USD dollar system ever. Directly from what the FED has been doing, abandoning LIBOR in favor of SOFR and it's given the FED broad new powers to reprice USD based assets especially in dollar markets abroad. It's no accident that China's shit is hitting the fan.
The FED has selectively backed the tier 1 SIBs systemically important banks and raised banking requirements because the interbank markets are dying. LIBOR is dead and never coming back, unsecured lending between financial institutions is gone. The FED has completely moved to a secure digital system SOFR. The problem with that is there are a lot of banks and financial institutions that do not have the liquidity to back their balance sheets, and meet requirements for FED funding. They haven't marked to market. The M2 is collapsing at the highest rate in history because they've been removing dollars from the system...
>they enjoy all of the upside of earning yield on deposits and have none of the downside risk that banks take on through lending Woooah there. 1) banks don't lend deposits. They buy UST's at various durations. SVB's loans didn't go bad. Its assets purchase (UST's) lost value due to historic increases in interest rates, creating net unrealized losses, just like all banks experienced, which ultimately resulted in the FED's Bank Term Finance Program which loaned money to banks using UST's as collateral AT PAR VALUES. IF Stablecoins issuers buy UST's with deposits, they're in the exact same boat, and the only think that keeps them afloat is the fact that they haven't had mass exodus of deposits that would require they 'realized' losses in UST values.
I'm not sure how it works in Argentina, but in the USA the Fed Reserve / Central Bank has member banks that form a banking cartel, and those member banks have the 'authority' to create currency out of thin air and lend it to you with interest. i.e. 95% of the currency is created via loan creation. the only other source is Central Bank 'balance sheet'. So in a way, its the people borrowing money are complicit in the act of money creation, aided and abetted by the legal counterfeiting process of the central bank and banking cartel. I don't think the people borrowing money think their complicit in this process, because 99% of them don't understand how money creation works. As an example, I have a friend that's been in banking for 30yrs. I asked him where his bank gets the money to lend to borrowers, and he couldn't answer the question accurately. He assumed they borrowed the money from other banks and/or used depositors money to make loans. Its all right here in the [FED's own documentation](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/Modern_Money_Mechanics.pdf) of the money creation process. He still wouldn't believe it. Why?...maybe because it illustrates to himself why he's been partially responsible for the very inflation he rants against, but idk.
But you don't buy dollars when interest rates increase, you buy government bonds. I have never heard anyone advising for **regular investors** to ever hold dollars as an investment strategy. By tuning interest rates FED makes it harder/easier for companies to secure more loans and therefore slowing down or speeding up economy. Banks are less willing to lend out money if the risk free returns from FED are higher.