A sub 20k bitcoin is very, very much on the table. If the equities markets swell off there’s currently a zero percent chance bitcoin doesn’t follow suit. Zero percent. The SPY and QQQ could shed another 20+ percent dragging the entire crypto market with. Easily.
If you are using a platform which doesn't charge any fee to hold then index ETFs like QQQ (NASDAQ), SPY (S&P500) or DIA (DJ30) are far safer for long term HODL than any crypto, even BTC. Basically if you hold you are guaranteed to go green at some point. Obviously there is inflation and opportunity cost etc. But funds are safu.
Ya big time if 25k was the bottom now could be the start of the melt yer face candles; which is why people FOMO so much in times like this... they know that the pump up is quick and not to be missed so they buy the relief rallies and get bull trapped. I think this will be a sustained relief rally with higher supports until new macro conditions develop or showcase that the markets aren’t strong and then crypto going down with QQQ
Ok. A good starting place is stocks in the form of index funds like SPY and QQQ. Investing is a long term strategy. Then maybe read up on BTC and ETH and make your call from there. Anything smaller is a gamble by comparison but you may find things you like and believe will have more value in the future. Best of luck.
They won’t buy bitcoin, they’re better off buying etf index funds (VOO or SPY). Bitcoin, literally, mirrors the QQQ. It’s not special, it’s an investment tool for people to make or lose money on. If the market continues its downward trend, bitcoin is going to get smashed. I would be surprised if it goes all the way back down to $5,000. (Lol, remember when people people, moronically, that it was going to $100k by YE 2021?) Bottom line is that bitcoin, nor any of the other 12,000 coins are special. They’re worth something as long as a sucker is willing to pay more. It’s inconvenient to hear it but it’s the truth nonetheless. Buy etf index funds, it will serve you better long term.
You’re missing my point. Bitcoin is immensely more volatile. In 2021, bitcoin had a realized annualized volatility of 87%. For comparison, SPY was 13%, QQQ was 18.2%, and to make your growth comparison fair, VUG was 17.2% and VBK was 20.8%. It’s clear that these investments are in entirely separate leagues or risk from bitcoin. It’s equally misleading to say that tons of money that can’t afford to be lost is equally bad if it’s in stocks or crypto. Over the past 4 months (starting January 13th) Bitcoin lost 31.07% of its value. For comparison, VUG is down 20.9% and VBK is down 19.8%. Not only is your point about growth investors being down more misleading, but it’s factually incorrect too. The only world in which you’re correct is if you’re cherry-picking individual growth stocks and claiming that’s somehow equivalent to “growth stocks.” Investing in cryptocurrency is far, far riskier. Nobody should invest money they can’t afford to lose, but it’s pretty clear which is the lesser of two evils.
You’re missing my point. Bitcoin is immensely more volatile. In 2021, bitcoin had a realized annual volatility of 87%. For comparison, SPY was 13%, QQQ was 18.2%, and to make your tech comparison fair, VBK, Vanguard small cap growth was 20.8%. It’s fact that these investments are in entirely separate leagues or risk. It’s equally misleading to say that tons of money that can’t afford to be lost is equally bad if it’s in stocks or crypto. Over the past 4 months (starting January 13th) Bitcoin lost 31.07% of its value. For comparison, VBK is down 19.8% and VUG is down 20.9%. Not only is your point about tech investors being down more misleading, but it’s factually incorrect too. The only world in which you’re correct is if you’re cherry-picking individual growth stocks and claiming that’s somehow equivalent to “growth stocks.” Investing in cryptocurrency is far, far riskier. Nobody should invest money they can’t afford to lose, but it’s pretty clear which is the lesser of two evils.
>An emergency fund is a barrier to investing if you needing to have one prevents you from investing. You seem to have this backwards. An emergency fund isn't a 'barrier' to investing, it's an important step \*in\* investing. > Investing in Enron and investing Microsoft or Apple are two completely different things. Which is easy to say in hindsight. How can you *today* know which corps are going to fail *tomorrow*? > If you afraid to be over-exposed to one company, invest i an INDEX FUND. This is the first somewhat sensible thing you've said. > If you invested in the QQQ 5 years ago, YOU WOULD STILL BE UP OVER 100%! Not necessarily. If I had invested $10,000 in QQQ 5 years ago but did not have an emergency fund, I'd probably be tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of dollars poorer today. The problem with your reasoning, is you are not factoring in the real-life events that make emergency funds a good idea.
An emergency fund is a barrier to investing if you needing to have one prevents you from investing. Investing in Enron and investing Microsoft or Apple are two completely different things. Please do not try to equate the two. If you afraid to be over-exposed to one company, invest i an INDEX FUND. If you invested in the QQQ 5 years ago, YOU WOULD STILL BE UP OVER 100%! How about YOU get educated? Don't be a pretentious ass.
I've been through the btc boom bust before as well. Some tough lessons that this sub doesn't like BTC is a high beta asset that sort of acts like leveraged QQQ. Risk on => Rallies, Risk off => Crashes hard. Right now it's not a storehold of wealth or an inflation hedge or anything of that sort though it might become one in the future. Lesson 1 of holding BTC - Don't fight the Fed. Lesson 2 is that the supply matters. Halvenings cause price to rally and it doesn't get priced in until it actually happens for some reason. Reduced supply coupled with easy money causes BTC to rally hard. I don't know if we've seen what happens when btc halves but monetary conditions are tight. Where are we going now? That depends on what your view is for the terminal fed funds rate. If you have an opinion (2%? 3%? More?) then you can time the BTC run too (along with most tech stocks, meme stocks etc). The key indicator to look at is the US 10yr breakeven rate (a proxy for long term inflation in the US). If you really have enough conviction to hold no matter what happens then you'll probably be fine eventually. If you have cash you're waiting to deploy, I'd say start DCAing in now with the understanding that things can get quite a bit worse (peak to trough drawdowns for BTC are 80% ish). For this cycle that's around $14k. Please correct me if my math is wrong here. https://medium.com/galaxy-digital-research/contextualized-analysis-of-bitcoin-drawdowns-f4717ff8e3be It is impossible to time the bottom or the top. Don't go all in with your cash, go in with 5-10% increments.
Now's actually a terrible time for index funds, as they're full of junk. Now's the time for stock picking. Like, instead of owning the QQQ (which has large positions in NFLX, PayPal, Tesla, etc), buy GOOG, MSFT & AAPL. Or maybe pickup some U or RBLX, great companies at firesale prices.
If you had bought the dip very broadly; i.e., the Nasdaq 100 and not individual stocks from companies that shit the bed like $JDSU, and just kept doing so and waited long enough, you would be sitting pretty today though even after this huge pullback in the QQQ. Of course, crypto is different than equities in many ways.
Depends how much ur investing. It's supposedly gambling whenever it's so volatile. How many New investors in the QQQ playing in and out getting wrecked rn? Tesla undercut how many folks now since they are in the 700 mark? It's honestly just money.
The rate at which supply is added to BTC is negligible. “Humanity has progressed passed subsistence.” No, it has not. Humans would very much die without basic necessities. Some modern societies have removed it from public consciousness but it is very much still there. Bitcoin is not programmatically deflationary. However, it is hoarded and lost and cannot be recreated. In a practical sense it is deflationary. Yes, those are real variables. Our kids hailing the Bitcoin overlords predates 1815 and throws us into Feudalism. It feels like I’m an adult as some teenager tells me “I don’t know” what some basic life experience is like. I do carefully consider your points. I like the idea of Bitcoin as a globally recognized means of exchange. Something untied to a centralized authority. Fine. Maybe it will neatly fit around 20-30% of investible gold. Maybe It’ll just be a thing institutions pump n’ dump over time. Maybe it’ll just be a leveraged analog to QQQ. Who knows. “A Bitcoin economy will lead to prosperity for most, not death.” Just replace Bitcoin with “asset backed” economy and it’s already been there for centuries. This sensationalism that everyone will be better off with a Bitcoin economy is delusional. Fiat and something like Bitcoin must coexist.
Great way to visualize this is on TradingView: Search “BTC/QQQ” or “BTC/SPY” or “BTC/M2SL” or “BTC/GOLD” to see BTC adjusted for or valued against the Nasdaq, S&P, Money Supply, or Gold. BTC/TESLA is interesting as well. Many other combinations can be interesting and of value. You will see how well BTC has performed recently relative to equities! It’s actually quite impressive.
I'm still not sure why anyone is surprised by this? Crypto is ripe with highly speculative assets, that are basically technological product offerings, so its not really surprising that most cryptocurrencies follow the nasdaq but to a larger extreme. QQQ down 4% on the day? Bitcoin and ethereum will be down 10%, and alts will be down 15-20%. But it goes the other way as well. If QQQ recovers 10% in a week, you would likely see bitcoin moving 20%+
Yes, it was. Futures had already priced in a 99% chance of 50bps happening before it happened. The market barely moved after the announcement. The market rallied in the post-announcement Q&A where Powell said 75bps is off the table. After the rally though, the [futures priced in a 75% chance of a 75bps hike in June.](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-rate-futures-price-75-161241800.html) I think it was because they said the same thing about 50bps earlier, and we got 50bps. I'm not going to act like I know for a fact this was the only reason though. There were rumors that some big money would unload their QQQ and maybe that brought down the whole market. When something happens we like to say x caused y, but in reality, it's most likely a bunch of factors that intertwined that caused this that nobody knows. It's just easy to point to things in hindsight and pretend it's obvious.
Zoom out far enough and see that institutional investors weren't interested until recently. Could be a coincidence but I doubt it. BTC is just a more volatile and less safe version of QQQ at this point. The rich people of the world will grab on to anything that has value and take money from the poor and impatient. Doesn't matter if it's stocks, crypto, or tulips. Crypto bros wanted adoption. Well, here it is.
Great call. I’ve been wondering how long the bear market rally caused by the recent FED nearing will last. When the SPY and QQQ started dropping with disregard to technical support I started shorting. Closed my position a little early as I could have squeezed 5-6% percent more from this move but this shit got too volatile for me. Day trading right now is really fucking risky.
Yes, Amazon dropped but it is because they did a bad investment with an electric car company with is going to shit which is not Tesla. I think Amazon investors are over reacting. I think crypto currently should check QQQ stocks because it is moving with it.
>A year ago Bitcoin was at $54k. Now it's at $39k. Shouldn't bitcoin be skyrocketing with all the crap going on with the stock market, inflation, war in Ukraine, etc? Why is this amazing currency not doing better? It all has to do with the "institutional traders". Those guys are hedge funds and high-frequency trading firms. They do automated trading with algorithms and they treat Bitcoin like a leveraged tech stock. So if the NASDAQ goes down they sell Bitcoin. If the NASDAQ goes up they buy it. The correlation between Bitcoin and $QQQ (nasdaq-100 ETF) is very high lately.
Anyone thought about hedging with the nasdaq? We all want to believe that BTc is not correlated with trad markets. Right now BTC seems to be trading as a risk-on asset with the nasdaq. I hold some GBTC in a roth that I do not want to sell because I own it at discount to NAV and believe in it long term and it may someday be approved as a spot ETF. So, why not buy puts on the QQQ and to a lesser extent SPY? It sure worked out today. Why am I wrong?
People keep saying to do half stocks. Except if you put half into QQQ it will tack exactly like Bitcoin so this is currently not a hedge. SPY owns 85% of what’s in QQQ so there’s slightly more of a hedge there but anyone paying attention sees that Bitcoin price is a leading indicator to what happens in the market. If you want to invest in Bitcoin, just do it. And don’t sell for at least 3 years
Futes and QQQ dumped even gold Rate hikes are imminent Nows the calm before the storm . Short term movements upward are attempts to break downward trend until they establish a reverse so in other words this crabbing can only last for so long before it signals bad news
You know, I could handle it if bitcoin was simply correlated to Nasdaq, and dipped when it dipped etc. but it’s just an extra punch in the face when a dip in the Nasdaq correlates to a far more massive and indiscriminate dump in bitcoin. Like, QQQ down 2%? Bitcoin could also be down 2%, or even 1%…or 12% There’s no rhyme or reason to it
But we WERE there, a year ago there were tons of days that the crypto market didn’t care wtf the stock market was doing. I know there’s a war and all that shit now but, I don’t understand why BTC is any better than just throwing my money into QQQ at this point
Algorithms. Bitcoin, and by extension the rest of crypto, is viewed as a high beta risk-on asset class. If SPY is green, QQQ is very green, BTC is hyper green, and alts are galactic green. If SPY is red, QQQ is very red, BTC is hyper red, and alts are dead.
>threw $2k total on individual stocks and every one of them have lost value so I've stayed away from investing in that sector yeah there is a difference between gambling and investing. I find crypto market more interesting too, but most of my money is in index funds. VTI and QQQ have been good to me. I play with individuals too but like you, lose money on most of them! I'm also with Nexo but didn't they just announce US customers can no longer add to earn? Maybe you're not in the US? in which case your earning prospects on coins are a lot better!
If you overlay the Nasdaq 100 with BTC the chart patterns are very similar over the last 6 months. In that regard BTC is able to be analyzed as an asset. It can be argued that the same market conditions that are impacting the Nasdaq companies are impacting Bitcoin trading. Tomorrow should be pretty interesting for both QQQ and BTC.
Well for starters I would like to clarify that 20% is definitely on the higher end of the scale but still in the range of normal. Also law of large numbers would make 20% averaged returns for 100 years impossible. 20% on 100k is relatively easy but 20% on 100B is on the verge of impossible. There's limits to your ability that get harder with size as there's only so much supply and good opportunities. Treasury bills and bonds are essentially considered 0 risk 0 reward. They where designed to offset governments debt. They are more for people/companies holding loose capital that want to offset some inflation. No retail investor should be investing in bills and bonds unless gdp is skyrocketing and yeilds are high because it's a guaranteed way to lose value. Your point about compound growth rates is a long-term nominal average return rate. It's something you'd learn in a class and Is probably useful as overall knowledge but not practical. I bet the median average on those numbers is much higher and it's because it's long term average. If you think about a companies life cycle in general it's growth, peak, decline you are taking an average of all companies including the ones that failed or declined. As an investor you are just looking for growing/peak companies Also 12% on a small cap is not good. The reward should fit the risk. Small caps are more risky so that portion of your portfolio should be getting much higher returns. QQQ which is an index of the top 100 companies by MC is 15-20% depending on the time frame you are looking at. Take in mind most small caps won't make it to mid cap size so indexs averages of small cap will show this and aren't good investments in general. If you are investing in a small cap company you should be looking for 30%+. Volatility is important in making assumptions on future price movement. It's essentially tracking the amount it can move based on probability of standard deviation. The higher the volatility the higher the range the price can swing. Fair competitive markets will have equal amount of green days to red days over enough instances so volatility is what makes the difference. It also refers to stability and risk of an asset so a treasury bill or bond has basically zero volatility in comparison to a small cap but you can look at implied volatility percentile which will tell you if the volatility is high compared to historical volatility. Implied volatility is the markets guess on where volatility can swing. So if implied volatility percentile is high and has been high for awhile you know it will come back down as volatility will always swing back to an average. Volatility in crypto markets is going to be high overall since it's still an emerging market and price finding. Crypto is going to require higher market caps for stability due to it being a speculative asset so inturn it will have large swings until 10+ trillion minimum. Also unlike bonds and stocks it's a store of value or is high velocity(transaction medium) and isn't based off of earnings or tangibles so any rumors, events, policies can create volatility waves both good and bad until the market is too large that sell offs and buy ins move the market cap less.
Not this time. When stocks collapse with crypto, the whole “risk adjusted” argument against investing in crypto dies. Straight up. If I can invest in one of two things that just crashed... say... 50%... and one of them is likely to do 10x as good as the other, then which one am I going to pick? GS understands that the crypto realm will get flooded with cash while QQQ could lose investors. Why?? Again, because after a crash, crypto won’t look like the risky guy in the room next to equities and everyone will want in on the big dip.
I bought my first 1/4 of a coin 2 weeks ago. Spent just under 10k after cashing out some QQQ stocks I’d owned for years. I did this to diversify my portfolio, and my goal is to buy a whole bitcoin. If all goes well tmrw with GME…I just bought 30 more shares after selling some NVDA. I’ll roll the proceeds into BTC and be closer to 1/2-2/3 of a coin. I’m a helicopter mechanic of modest means. These are retirement moves I’m making for 20 years down the line.
So many metrics are pointing to real recovery, I’ve still got that LUNA short open and I’ve been moving to be prepared to cover it. I thought a healthy pullback would be natural but again, markets choose the maximum pain path for the most participants — shorts got wrecked and so many of us opened more shorts we might be headed to test 50k before we retest any lower supports. What I can comment is I don’t trust this support channel because we’re not out of a broader economic cycle signaling recession and slower growth. BTC outperforming SPY ***&*** QQQ in this market would signal to me a coupling of some sorts perhaps we’ll finally find out whether BTC can ever be a reserve asset and not a risk asset.
If Gemini's earn was insured, there would be little to no return from it. People just do not understand that there is no free lunch. If there was truly a 100% risk-less, guaranteed 10% return, NOBODY would invest in any individual stocks or cryptos. And I don't mean the 10% average return from SPY or QQQ, I mean 10% per year every single year consistently. SPY returns 10% long term but the year to year fluctuation is HUGE. Some years -40%, some years +15 to +20%. If there was a riskless 10% per year guaranteed, compounding alone would make that investment far more attractive then anything else that exists.
tldr; Investors who have put money into major US indices have enjoyed respectable returns since the bottom of the market on March 23, 2020. The SPDR S&P 500, Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust have returned 98.00%, 104.51% and 84.77% since then. Cryptocurrency bulls who bought when US markets bottomed out in March 2020 and held on for the long-term have been treated to epic returns. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
The entirety of human history up to 2009. Thus "historically". Land is the source of all resources, when assessing the value of land you have to account for it's productive capacity. It's only relatively recently that speculative trading has surpassed productive investment. Land is, and always has been, the ultimate value investment. Its what wars are fought over. Bitcoin has been financialised by wall street. They have created derivatives such as etf's and options which are being traded in the place of the underlying. As long as capital is captured by these derivatives then bitcoin will not behave as the limited supply would imply. Look at gold. The mechanisms through which wall street leeches value are "rehypothecation" and leverage. You should understand now that BTC behaves more like QQQ than GLD.
I can smell litigation coming but I really doubt anything will come of it. Artists make plans all the time for more work that they don't follow through on. She didn't sign a contract, and a legal team would have to establish that NFTs are an actual investment vehicle for them to show she deceived investors. If I was her, I'd probably have done the exact same thing. She's fucking 25. 1 million into the SPY or QQQ now will be crazy money when she retires. Good for her Either way, this should actually help the value of her NFTs since there won't be any more of them.
But nobody would make the argument that the QQQ would provide inflation protection. And also for the QQQ you could bring the zoom-out argument (which makes no sense to be clear). An asset that fluctuates by +/- 30% in any lazy month is NOT an inflation hedge. A supply cap does not change that fact.
34 yo man here. Used to own stocks and etfs like VTI, QQQ, reits, etc. And only like 5% of bitcoin bought in 2019. Back in september I sold all my tradicional portfolio and bought 100% crypto, I realized all the gains I missed If only I was 100%in bitcoin back then.
Depends on the stocks and crypto. There is no real answer to this question. If you're buying ETFs and shitcoins, stick with the ETFs. If you're buying BTC and ETH and the SPY or QQQ as a hedge that's a different story.
Thanks. >Is this FEAR the BTC index, or is this something specific to the stock market? Yes its called the VIX and its measurement of fear. Whats great about it is that you can actually purchase and ETF for the VIX so that you can hedge it against the market, like a QQQ index. What I want to figure out is to find a good lag time so that I can get in or out based on the VIX that would be way awesome.
I'm quite sure that this move was almost entirely non-attributable to this news. Contrary to popular belief, news has a very, very small impact on Bitcoin. The only news that shakes Bitcoin is news that also shook traditional markets, e.g. the expedited federal fiscal tightening. Go see for yourself - Bitcoin is extremely correlated to the Nasdaq and every major top has coincided with a large QQQ correction (Dec '13, Dec '18, Apr '21, Nov '21).
Facts: 1) Bears pinned down us down for half a month in the 30K-38K region. 2) All of a sudden on Friday, the bull pushed up and got to 44K right now at a laughable level of volume. I watched what happened over the weekend. Bulls pushed up everything with very small volume compared to fights you had last summer or even last year. It is like all the short-selling bears just vanished overnight. 3) The supposed "resistance points" were laughable, e.g. 40K, 42K, 44K. Hardly any obstacle for bulls to overcome. In a matter of hours, the bulls overcame the resistance points. 4) Pro-Share QQQ short is green today. Nasdaq is bleeding. FAANGs are bleeding. We act as a tech stock for the last few months. All of sudden, we just stopped? 5) BTC shorts are getting liquidated. People are switching to long positions. FOMO buyers are back. The fear index went down. The Bloomberg and sub are calling for 100K. Does that sound like greed is on again? You know what the big boys will do when people get greedy.
1. It's massively oversold and overshorted to the point that there's barely any supply left to sell and many shorters needing to buy. This is the biggest one. 2. Similarly, lots of sidelined people holding stablecoins that will fomo in one after the other. 3. we just broke out of a 3 month downtrend with a clean and obvious technical breakout 4. We came to a high time frame supply zone All the narratives are noise. However it doesnt hurt that SPY/QQQ are no longer in freefall
Np. Set aside a % of you income that will go into your portfolio. Just remember buy good assets, think long-term. Look at QQQ and they companies it holds. Dear about bitcoin, under what it has to offer. The ride will be bumpy, however if you have bought good assets you'll be okay. I know nothing about making quick money.
Start building your portfolio. Can't grow wrong with a 50/50 split of bitcoin and QQQ. Big thing to understand, is investing does not entail quick money. You buy something because you think it is a great asset, not because you think it'll go up because of what you heard on tiktok. Buy good companies and bitcoin.
I’ve thought about this, let’s say I woke up with 1 million. 250k straight into VOO, SCHD, KO and QQQ (sorry I know this is a crypto sub…) for long term retirement I would keep myself part time at my job because I work fast food to have income still coming in (I’ll also have something to do without the stress of money) to that I can just choose whatever to do with. I would give 200k at least to my mom easily so she can retire. Definitely would buy a Tesla right away so that’s where the 50k is going. 50k in crypto. The rest of the 300k would sit until I’m older to buy a house or it’ll just sit there. 50k in the bank ready to spend when needed.
that would be astronimical however keep in mind that apple is a single stock; I chose ETH and BTC because both are as close to an index in crypto, so it would be like buying SPY and QQQ; I know its not the same but the idea is to purchase without much thinking; picking the winners are hard.