BTC and gold don’t act anything alike. Go back and look at the first 6 months of this year when there were commodity shocks from the war in Ukraine and China shutdown. Gold was basically flat for the first 6 months while BTC was down 60%. BTC behaves like a volatile tech stock (QQQ was down 30% over the same period) and not at all like gold.
Then sell and take the L as a lesson learned. Literally all alts are down 90%. Buy ETH and BTC if that volatility stinks for you. Or just buy SPY or QQQ and walk away. Buy alts when they are 90% down and then hold them. Don't listen to crypto twitter telling you to buy before it's too late, or anyone who uses the phrase "few know" or say "shitfucksandwhichdoge will make millionaires", don't listen to the hopium on coin specific subs, just DCA and walk away until BTC or ETH pushes new ATHs
You are absolutely correct, sir! I trade stocks primarily, so I have my finger on the pulse of both markets. The Nasdaq ($QQQ) gave signals that we were bottoming in early July. Been a freight train since. Thanks for sharing and all the best :)
Since you obviously have no clue, but think you do, I advice you read some charts (BTC, SPX, QQQ) during previous bear markets. There have been a lot of very strong rallies during those periods which will make you believe we are heading to the moon. I'm not here to tell you we are or are not in a bear or bull market. I'm here to tell you don't believe what you want to believe AND come here and state it like a fact. It makes a fool.
Two days in a row now that we have been green while QQQ is red. I have a theory that the jobs report being good is a benefit to Crypto but hurts stocks. This makes is more likely the fed keeps raising rates which impacts the bottom line of companies which borrow money/likes of credit or have customers who finance which really applies to every large business. Crypto is not impacted by any of those factors and infact can make some of the Defi more attractive. Or I might be full of shit and don't know fuck all. Not sure but nice to see green when stocks are red.
Did you read my mind? I was just comparing and analyzing $BTC vs $QQQ charts. 7 consecutive red candles vs. 7 consecutive green candles. Stocks been pushing with much higher momentum than Bitcoin. Relative weakness isn't great for when the market does a pullback/retracement.
I also follow the stock market--specifically the NASDAQ--as the benchmark for institutional appetite for risk. Though similar, the chart is cleaner to read than Bitcoin's. Clues: \-Nasdaq [QQQ ETF bottoming action](https://i.imgur.com/kyaTBF4.png) and change in trend structure \-Bitcoin $19k support being defended multiple times to put brakes on the downtrend \-ETH and Alts leading the rally from the lows (riskier assets had relative strength) Here's a [post I made on July 19](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/w2yw2z/the_anatomy_of_a_trend_part_ii_how_a_downtrend/) when I believed that crypto was attempting to push higher. The day-to-day price action also pointed to sustained uptrends which meant big money was buying. Hopefully that helps. Best of luck :)
Obviously BTC follows Dow Jones, QQQ etc. They all hit their low in June - but have since recovered a little bit. If you compare their trajectory - it just seems to be an inverse of crude oil prices. So essentially, the price of BTC is an inverse of the price of crude oil.
Its simply because the crypto market follows the stock market, if you dont believe me, just look at BTC and compare it to the QQQ, or any etf. The markets are pumping right now, so crypto is following. Now the question as to why? well realistically it shouldn't be, but lets look at the positives. GDP was negative this quarter, but still much better than the negative GDP in Q1, also we have been falling for 8 months, so its not improbable to say that we are pumping, because this shows that the economy is improving. Also Amazon and Apple yesterday smashed their earnings and today Tesla goes BRRRR.
0.75% rate hike was priced in. What you saw today was a relief rally since the Fed didn't surprise the market with 1.0%. The overnight gap on $SPY/$QQQ told you that institutions put on risk going into FOMC statement. That was a big clue. Don't listen to this sub for how the market is supposed to work. Most here are crypto investors who moonlight as financial analysts. Still trying to make sense of the hot inflation number that was suppose to tank the market a few weeks back.
Here are the indicators for free that are likely more beneficial then this silliness: * Previous session high low * Today's high low * QQQ, VIX, ES/SPY/SPX * XLF, XLE * AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, GOOG * 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 34 EMA Outside of those, learn to create resistance and support levels via charting. And use other fun custom tools like bookmap to show where orders are concentrated.
The Market is already pricing in a serious rate hike ahead which will continue to strengthen the dollar compared to all global currencies. Look at the DXY Chart, the dollars strength is at an ATH since 2000 from these rate hikes thus far. People are getting their hands on dollars right now, we need to see the dollar become weaker again/ combined with asset prices marching higher, If BTC continues to trade like the QQQ. If the inflation is a run away train, and they tried to print our way out of inflation. OR artifically weaken the dollar with anything. Even a plaza accord 2.0. Buy as much BTC as humanly possible.
That's a very informative piece. I can tell that you enjoy analyzing data and making sense of the markets. Personally, I focus on the *what* rather than the *why*. The *what* (price action) helps me determine when to buy, add, sell, or trim positions. It makes life much more simple :) One key difference is that I am referring to *institutional money*. They are heavily involved in crypto now compared to past cycles. Only they have the resources to move markets in any meaningful way. Retail has very little impact on asset prices (<20% volume for stocks). It's the big players who dictate macro trends, sector rotations, etc. The entirety of that $817B is a drop in the bucket in the context of global financial markets. [Take a look at the ETF $ARKK](https://i.imgur.com/Mr1KR3U.png). It was the benchmark for high-beta, risk-on stocks. The ATH was reached back in Feb 2021. Institutional money left and it was dead in the water until Nov 2021 (consolidating). In the **very same week** as $BTC ATH, the downtrend in $ARKK resumed. That's coordinated selling by the market as an aggregate. Not all sectors, indexes, assets have to peak and trough at identical moments in time. Institutions rotate into what's hot and bail on what's not. As you know, $SPY and $QQQ continued on for another month and made new ATH on Jan 4, 2022. Then this whole inflation/war/interest rate/recession narrative came into the picture and all markets have gone to shit, in unison. Have you seen [the bond markets lately](https://i.imgur.com/PE6vBJu.png)? It's suppose to be a safe-haven during uncertainty. But rising yields have tanked this asset class, too. Even energy names have peaked for the short-term. Unfortunately, there is nowhere for money to seek shelter in this environment. Markets have been risk-off all year and that explains the multiple Bear Markets. From a Technical Analysis perspective, downtrend until proven otherwise.
Where were those other traders to exploit my short of **$QQQ** (Nasdaq 100 ETF) at $296.50? [Has dropped $8 since](https://i.imgur.com/E19q4PZ.png). That's right, they got ran over by the institutions who sold at resistance (prior high). The market is random > 90% of the time. There exists certain windows (i.e. patterns) where the probability of one thing happening over another is higher. You seem to have your mind made up about, though. Best of luck!
You actually do very similar to my long term investments. I like safe too actually. I am about 50% QQQ 40% AGG 8% DBC and about 2% BTC. I shifted out of QQQ and into DBC as the markets shifted. I'm still losing money like everyone else but this is a 20+ year basket for me. Like steering the titanic, lol.
Hasn't even begun? How so? S&P is only 8% above pre pandemic levels. That's 8% in 2 years, lower than the long term average. QQQ is only 17% above pre pandemic levels. That's ok. Nothing crazy. Tech companies made REAL profits and gains during the pandemic, so if anything 17% probably doesn't even reflect the actual value they generated. So, arguably, oversold. Outside of index funds companies across the board have fallen 50-90%. How is that not even beginning to pay the piper? Are you blind or have you just not looked?
Yes, if you bought that cascade of liquidations then you probably want to sell when about 15-20% up. This isn't over. Perhaps if it touches 22k that might be a sell point, but it mostly depends on what you see QQQ and the 10yr US bond doing next week.
Unfortunately, crypto doesn't exist "outside" of the current system. I can't put my money in crypto to escape, and then still pay mortgage, pay bills, or do anything useful. During a recession, people will be using their capital for exactly those things, paying bills, and paying necessities. This strongly implies that money will flow away from crypto. This is using your logic, not even general economics which would already classify crypto as highly speculative and vulnerable to liquidity issues and thus the first asset class to pop during a recession (see QQQ/ARKK for other examples).
Continue to DCA and hold. Outlook of the near term macro environment is not great, every asset class has fallen except commodities and cash. E.g. BND down 12%, QQQ down 30%, TSLA down 45%,and cash is also being eroded with the high inflation. BTC being newer asset type being more volatile swings down more in such environment. But I take the same approach for other asset classes too in such headwind, just continue to DCA and hold. Also, the importance of self-custody for BTC should hopefully be better appreciated by more people who used to discount the risk associated with handing custody to a third party for yield (with lenders) or supposed _better security_ (with exchanges).
a lot of new investors that just had 1 or 2 years experience in investing when for high growth stocks like TSLA PLTR and crypto... now most of them are sitting on huge paper losses... some have already given up and sold everything... we can feel the anger and frustration in this crowd... i guess they can only see this as a lesson and school fees being paid I hope the new investors will grow stronger from this but some will never touch stocks/crypto again the experience investors don't really care about the crash they just continue to DCA into SPY/QQQ or big tech FAAMG stocks
It's funny. Gold has been dropping while the hawkishness increases. Bitcoin dropped more. Reference BTC/XAU or simply XAU/USD and BTC/USD separately. I don't think it means that either one failed. Because hawkishness is the CB's actually trying to fight inflation. They're doing a piss poor job,and in no way will it work. But that's the impression the market is getting. Traders treat Bitcoin like the QQQ and then act surprised when the fiat exchange price goes down with the rest of the market. And then they say, hey look, it has no intrinsic value. And we're just over here creatively destroying remittance companies and banks. THE PRICE IS WRONG, BITCH!!!
With this kind of selling pressure... $16-17k btc, $700 ETH next. BTC hasn't needed to drop to its 50% retracement after its big run ups SO FAR. but we're so close to one that it might as well go there now. ETH respected 50% retracement as great support last time. https://imgur.com/mjYtsF0 $QQQ is only like $10 away from retesting its 50% as well. https://imgur.com/0AhEEGg
Other equities haven’t been performing well at all this year, SPY DJI QQQ all have been dropping pretty hard this month, and on chain data also tells us that whales are still accumulating while the smaller wallets are just cashing out off the space.
Crypto's investment nature is defined by the type of investors it attracts. It won't be an inflation hedge for years to come, because a significant segment of crypto "investors" are just fiat gamblers. They aren't investing to hide from inflation. They are "investing" to get fiat-rich quickly. When they are in fiat-profit and inflation is super-high, they will sell BTC and convert it into fiat. That is not an inflation hedging strategy. If you look at gold investors, they hide in gold until they see signs of inflation going down. That is an inflation hedging strategy. These moonshot investors have now defined the BTC price history. Institutions use algorithms to trade and these algorithms look at price history to determine how to trade an asset. Effectively, these moonshot investors have now told institutions to not trade BTC as an inflation hedge, but as a leveraged QQQ because these moonshot investors are also heavy in highly speculative tech, like Tesla. Do you know why Musk is a public figurehead for crypto? It is partly because his retail stock "investors" has a very similar trading profile as many retail investors in crypto. Moonboys fucked us for good....
I think side work for investment cash is a solid idea. Don't try to time the bottom like a lot of these bozos say. If they knew what the future held they would be rich and not posting on WSB. Dollar cost avg into crypto while it falls should pay off in the long run if u plan to hold long term. That said I'd also DCA into QQQ, VTV, and SPY at this point in time.
You are insane if you believe that… We have seen time and time again that BTC is a risk-on assets that is correlated to movement of the QQQ and SPY index. When times get tough people hold on to their money tight and not invest in risky “assets”. Don’t fool yourself and be realistic… Dark times are before us
that seems reasonable my only suggestion which will be unpopular is to increase stocks but only focus on SPY from a 20-50% drop dollar cost averaging on the way down.... and QQQ from a 30-80% drop dollar cost averaging on the way down a balance of about 50% cash / 25% real estate / 20% SPY/QQQ and 5% crypto is better imo
A sub 20k bitcoin is very, very much on the table. If the equities markets swell off there’s currently a zero percent chance bitcoin doesn’t follow suit. Zero percent. The SPY and QQQ could shed another 20+ percent dragging the entire crypto market with. Easily.
If you are using a platform which doesn't charge any fee to hold then index ETFs like QQQ (NASDAQ), SPY (S&P500) or DIA (DJ30) are far safer for long term HODL than any crypto, even BTC. Basically if you hold you are guaranteed to go green at some point. Obviously there is inflation and opportunity cost etc. But funds are safu.
Ya big time if 25k was the bottom now could be the start of the melt yer face candles; which is why people FOMO so much in times like this... they know that the pump up is quick and not to be missed so they buy the relief rallies and get bull trapped. I think this will be a sustained relief rally with higher supports until new macro conditions develop or showcase that the markets aren’t strong and then crypto going down with QQQ
Ok. A good starting place is stocks in the form of index funds like SPY and QQQ. Investing is a long term strategy. Then maybe read up on BTC and ETH and make your call from there. Anything smaller is a gamble by comparison but you may find things you like and believe will have more value in the future. Best of luck.
They won’t buy bitcoin, they’re better off buying etf index funds (VOO or SPY). Bitcoin, literally, mirrors the QQQ. It’s not special, it’s an investment tool for people to make or lose money on. If the market continues its downward trend, bitcoin is going to get smashed. I would be surprised if it goes all the way back down to $5,000. (Lol, remember when people people, moronically, that it was going to $100k by YE 2021?) Bottom line is that bitcoin, nor any of the other 12,000 coins are special. They’re worth something as long as a sucker is willing to pay more. It’s inconvenient to hear it but it’s the truth nonetheless. Buy etf index funds, it will serve you better long term.
You’re missing my point. Bitcoin is immensely more volatile. In 2021, bitcoin had a realized annualized volatility of 87%. For comparison, SPY was 13%, QQQ was 18.2%, and to make your growth comparison fair, VUG was 17.2% and VBK was 20.8%. It’s clear that these investments are in entirely separate leagues or risk from bitcoin. It’s equally misleading to say that tons of money that can’t afford to be lost is equally bad if it’s in stocks or crypto. Over the past 4 months (starting January 13th) Bitcoin lost 31.07% of its value. For comparison, VUG is down 20.9% and VBK is down 19.8%. Not only is your point about growth investors being down more misleading, but it’s factually incorrect too. The only world in which you’re correct is if you’re cherry-picking individual growth stocks and claiming that’s somehow equivalent to “growth stocks.” Investing in cryptocurrency is far, far riskier. Nobody should invest money they can’t afford to lose, but it’s pretty clear which is the lesser of two evils.
You’re missing my point. Bitcoin is immensely more volatile. In 2021, bitcoin had a realized annual volatility of 87%. For comparison, SPY was 13%, QQQ was 18.2%, and to make your tech comparison fair, VBK, Vanguard small cap growth was 20.8%. It’s fact that these investments are in entirely separate leagues or risk. It’s equally misleading to say that tons of money that can’t afford to be lost is equally bad if it’s in stocks or crypto. Over the past 4 months (starting January 13th) Bitcoin lost 31.07% of its value. For comparison, VBK is down 19.8% and VUG is down 20.9%. Not only is your point about tech investors being down more misleading, but it’s factually incorrect too. The only world in which you’re correct is if you’re cherry-picking individual growth stocks and claiming that’s somehow equivalent to “growth stocks.” Investing in cryptocurrency is far, far riskier. Nobody should invest money they can’t afford to lose, but it’s pretty clear which is the lesser of two evils.
>An emergency fund is a barrier to investing if you needing to have one prevents you from investing. You seem to have this backwards. An emergency fund isn't a 'barrier' to investing, it's an important step \*in\* investing. > Investing in Enron and investing Microsoft or Apple are two completely different things. Which is easy to say in hindsight. How can you *today* know which corps are going to fail *tomorrow*? > If you afraid to be over-exposed to one company, invest i an INDEX FUND. This is the first somewhat sensible thing you've said. > If you invested in the QQQ 5 years ago, YOU WOULD STILL BE UP OVER 100%! Not necessarily. If I had invested $10,000 in QQQ 5 years ago but did not have an emergency fund, I'd probably be tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of dollars poorer today. The problem with your reasoning, is you are not factoring in the real-life events that make emergency funds a good idea.
An emergency fund is a barrier to investing if you needing to have one prevents you from investing. Investing in Enron and investing Microsoft or Apple are two completely different things. Please do not try to equate the two. If you afraid to be over-exposed to one company, invest i an INDEX FUND. If you invested in the QQQ 5 years ago, YOU WOULD STILL BE UP OVER 100%! How about YOU get educated? Don't be a pretentious ass.
I've been through the btc boom bust before as well. Some tough lessons that this sub doesn't like BTC is a high beta asset that sort of acts like leveraged QQQ. Risk on => Rallies, Risk off => Crashes hard. Right now it's not a storehold of wealth or an inflation hedge or anything of that sort though it might become one in the future. Lesson 1 of holding BTC - Don't fight the Fed. Lesson 2 is that the supply matters. Halvenings cause price to rally and it doesn't get priced in until it actually happens for some reason. Reduced supply coupled with easy money causes BTC to rally hard. I don't know if we've seen what happens when btc halves but monetary conditions are tight. Where are we going now? That depends on what your view is for the terminal fed funds rate. If you have an opinion (2%? 3%? More?) then you can time the BTC run too (along with most tech stocks, meme stocks etc). The key indicator to look at is the US 10yr breakeven rate (a proxy for long term inflation in the US). If you really have enough conviction to hold no matter what happens then you'll probably be fine eventually. If you have cash you're waiting to deploy, I'd say start DCAing in now with the understanding that things can get quite a bit worse (peak to trough drawdowns for BTC are 80% ish). For this cycle that's around $14k. Please correct me if my math is wrong here. https://medium.com/galaxy-digital-research/contextualized-analysis-of-bitcoin-drawdowns-f4717ff8e3be It is impossible to time the bottom or the top. Don't go all in with your cash, go in with 5-10% increments.
Now's actually a terrible time for index funds, as they're full of junk. Now's the time for stock picking. Like, instead of owning the QQQ (which has large positions in NFLX, PayPal, Tesla, etc), buy GOOG, MSFT & AAPL. Or maybe pickup some U or RBLX, great companies at firesale prices.
If you had bought the dip very broadly; i.e., the Nasdaq 100 and not individual stocks from companies that shit the bed like $JDSU, and just kept doing so and waited long enough, you would be sitting pretty today though even after this huge pullback in the QQQ. Of course, crypto is different than equities in many ways.
Depends how much ur investing. It's supposedly gambling whenever it's so volatile. How many New investors in the QQQ playing in and out getting wrecked rn? Tesla undercut how many folks now since they are in the 700 mark? It's honestly just money.
The rate at which supply is added to BTC is negligible. “Humanity has progressed passed subsistence.” No, it has not. Humans would very much die without basic necessities. Some modern societies have removed it from public consciousness but it is very much still there. Bitcoin is not programmatically deflationary. However, it is hoarded and lost and cannot be recreated. In a practical sense it is deflationary. Yes, those are real variables. Our kids hailing the Bitcoin overlords predates 1815 and throws us into Feudalism. It feels like I’m an adult as some teenager tells me “I don’t know” what some basic life experience is like. I do carefully consider your points. I like the idea of Bitcoin as a globally recognized means of exchange. Something untied to a centralized authority. Fine. Maybe it will neatly fit around 20-30% of investible gold. Maybe It’ll just be a thing institutions pump n’ dump over time. Maybe it’ll just be a leveraged analog to QQQ. Who knows. “A Bitcoin economy will lead to prosperity for most, not death.” Just replace Bitcoin with “asset backed” economy and it’s already been there for centuries. This sensationalism that everyone will be better off with a Bitcoin economy is delusional. Fiat and something like Bitcoin must coexist.
Great way to visualize this is on TradingView: Search “BTC/QQQ” or “BTC/SPY” or “BTC/M2SL” or “BTC/GOLD” to see BTC adjusted for or valued against the Nasdaq, S&P, Money Supply, or Gold. BTC/TESLA is interesting as well. Many other combinations can be interesting and of value. You will see how well BTC has performed recently relative to equities! It’s actually quite impressive.
I'm still not sure why anyone is surprised by this? Crypto is ripe with highly speculative assets, that are basically technological product offerings, so its not really surprising that most cryptocurrencies follow the nasdaq but to a larger extreme. QQQ down 4% on the day? Bitcoin and ethereum will be down 10%, and alts will be down 15-20%. But it goes the other way as well. If QQQ recovers 10% in a week, you would likely see bitcoin moving 20%+
Yes, it was. Futures had already priced in a 99% chance of 50bps happening before it happened. The market barely moved after the announcement. The market rallied in the post-announcement Q&A where Powell said 75bps is off the table. After the rally though, the [futures priced in a 75% chance of a 75bps hike in June.](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-rate-futures-price-75-161241800.html) I think it was because they said the same thing about 50bps earlier, and we got 50bps. I'm not going to act like I know for a fact this was the only reason though. There were rumors that some big money would unload their QQQ and maybe that brought down the whole market. When something happens we like to say x caused y, but in reality, it's most likely a bunch of factors that intertwined that caused this that nobody knows. It's just easy to point to things in hindsight and pretend it's obvious.
Zoom out far enough and see that institutional investors weren't interested until recently. Could be a coincidence but I doubt it. BTC is just a more volatile and less safe version of QQQ at this point. The rich people of the world will grab on to anything that has value and take money from the poor and impatient. Doesn't matter if it's stocks, crypto, or tulips. Crypto bros wanted adoption. Well, here it is.
Great call. I’ve been wondering how long the bear market rally caused by the recent FED nearing will last. When the SPY and QQQ started dropping with disregard to technical support I started shorting. Closed my position a little early as I could have squeezed 5-6% percent more from this move but this shit got too volatile for me. Day trading right now is really fucking risky.
Yes, Amazon dropped but it is because they did a bad investment with an electric car company with is going to shit which is not Tesla. I think Amazon investors are over reacting. I think crypto currently should check QQQ stocks because it is moving with it.
>A year ago Bitcoin was at $54k. Now it's at $39k. Shouldn't bitcoin be skyrocketing with all the crap going on with the stock market, inflation, war in Ukraine, etc? Why is this amazing currency not doing better? It all has to do with the "institutional traders". Those guys are hedge funds and high-frequency trading firms. They do automated trading with algorithms and they treat Bitcoin like a leveraged tech stock. So if the NASDAQ goes down they sell Bitcoin. If the NASDAQ goes up they buy it. The correlation between Bitcoin and $QQQ (nasdaq-100 ETF) is very high lately.
Anyone thought about hedging with the nasdaq? We all want to believe that BTc is not correlated with trad markets. Right now BTC seems to be trading as a risk-on asset with the nasdaq. I hold some GBTC in a roth that I do not want to sell because I own it at discount to NAV and believe in it long term and it may someday be approved as a spot ETF. So, why not buy puts on the QQQ and to a lesser extent SPY? It sure worked out today. Why am I wrong?
People keep saying to do half stocks. Except if you put half into QQQ it will tack exactly like Bitcoin so this is currently not a hedge. SPY owns 85% of what’s in QQQ so there’s slightly more of a hedge there but anyone paying attention sees that Bitcoin price is a leading indicator to what happens in the market. If you want to invest in Bitcoin, just do it. And don’t sell for at least 3 years
Futes and QQQ dumped even gold Rate hikes are imminent Nows the calm before the storm . Short term movements upward are attempts to break downward trend until they establish a reverse so in other words this crabbing can only last for so long before it signals bad news
You know, I could handle it if bitcoin was simply correlated to Nasdaq, and dipped when it dipped etc. but it’s just an extra punch in the face when a dip in the Nasdaq correlates to a far more massive and indiscriminate dump in bitcoin. Like, QQQ down 2%? Bitcoin could also be down 2%, or even 1%…or 12% There’s no rhyme or reason to it
But we WERE there, a year ago there were tons of days that the crypto market didn’t care wtf the stock market was doing. I know there’s a war and all that shit now but, I don’t understand why BTC is any better than just throwing my money into QQQ at this point