Listed Funds Trust - AAF First Priority CLO Bond ETF
Are there any downside in investing in a municipal money fund instead of purchasing municipal bonds assuming the money fund's yield > muni bond yield?
Question about Graham's intrinsec value formula
How to purchase distressed subprime auto loans?
Fed raises rates a quarter point, expects ‘ongoing’ increases
Credit Downgrade on US Debt from AAA to AA+ 2011 price action in S&P500 now that we know CDS are through the roof ( Swipe right )
Credit Downgrade on US Debt from AAA+ to AA 2011 price action in S&P500 now that we know CDS are through the roof ( Swipe right )
TSLA Tesla Evaluation - Fundamental Analysis
Doomsday Clocks’ Likely Before Congress Hikes Debt Limit
Does option premium get more expensive along with interest rate?
Why are airline companies still down if 99% pre-COVID traffic is expected this year?
Gaensel Energy Group Provides Corporate Update Where MetroVR Studios Enters Production for Summer 2023 VR Game Release and the Launch of MetroVR VRCore(SM) Technology
Be greedy when others are fearful? Only if others are selling like there is no tomorrow!
The US CPI print for September has come in at 8.2%, beating estimates for 8.1%. The average CPI day SPY return is -1.07%. JP Morgan says a too-hot CPI would put stocks at risk of a 5% drop. Do you think stocks will close lower today?
CPI came in at 8.2%, more than expected despite rate hikes
INTEL Corp. (A quick Evaluation part II) with adjusted data
INTEL Corp. (A quick Evaluation Part II) with adjusted data
INTEL Corp. (A quick Evaluation part II) with adjusted data
Intel Corp. Stock Evaluation (TLDR: $36.08, Undervalued)
Interl Corp. Stock Evaluation (TLDR: $36.08, Undervalued)
Interl Corp. Stock Evaluation (TLDR: $36.08, Undervalued)
Interl Corp. Stock Evaluation (TLDR: $36.08, Undervalued)
What does the end of Moore's Law mean for the tech industry
Gasoline Prices Jump in West/MidWest U.S. Defying Falling Futures Markets - Where Do You See Gas Prices in Q4 and 2023 relative to today?
Gasoline Prices Jump in West/MidWest U.S. Defying Falling Futures Markets - Where Do You See Gas Prices in Q4 and 2023 relative to today?
Gasoline Prices Jump in West/MidWest U.S. Defying Falling Futures Markets
T-Bills at 3% on Vanguard. The current market earnings situation.
Gas prices drop 70 days in a row in the second-longest streak since 2005
It's so obvious BBBY is not going bankrupt and media trying to get us to sell
We be spending most our lives living in stonkers paradise
US Long-Term Inflation Expectations Drop to One-Year Low; Retail Sales Beat Expectations
There are 3 major signs inflation may have peaked — but they don't mean things are going to get cheaper right away By Ben Winck
Jeff Bezos Lashes Out at Biden Over Call for Lowering of Gas Prices [off topic]
Record travel this weekend, yet we're headed to a recession?
Wall Street Specials : "Fed Guy" and "One of Salomon Brother" discuss about Collapsing Liquidity in Global Financial Markets.
Biden tells US oil companies in letter your 'well above normal’ refinery profit margins are not acceptable
Is the next Great Muppet Reaping at hand?
Mortgage Backed Securities. What’s the real issue here?
Gas prices topped $5 a gallon nationwide as of Saturday, according to the latest price data from AAA, and the sharp rise in recent months is not showing signs of slowing.
Housing Crash and Shorting the MBS ETFs To The Ground
I told you so, but you didn't listen. Here's what's coming next in 2022.
Is the next Great Muppet Reaping at hand?
The Real Reason Behind the Invasion? [$SPY - Predictions for the week of 4/25]
The housing bubble is going to burst soon narrative is the dumbest thing I’ve read since Nam.
One year ago, I wrote a bear case for AMD. Let's review.
Nearly 2 years ago, I wrote a bear case for AMD. Let's review.
Me to the mods after they delete my fucking AAA memes
Fed raises interest rates for first time in 3 years to fight inflation, forecasts six more hikes in 2022
Is Credit Risk Rising on Wall Street, America ? Lets take a deep look at the Bond Market using TA...
U.S. gasoline price hits it's all time record with a $4.173 average per gallon.
US stocks open lower, oil still high but off earlier peak
U.S. crude oil jumps to $125 a barrel, a 13-year high on possible Western ban of Russian oil
National average for a gallon of gas in US tops $4, the highest price at the pump since 2008
Nio Reportedly Raises $163M Through Debt Offering In China
BlackBerry Protect & Optics Awarded AAA Rating two years in a row, providing holistic detection and protection coverage against all attacks
A History of Bill Ackman's Best Defensive Hedge Trades
In your professional opinion, what is the chances of profit for this paypal yolo my retard pet made?
$SWRM $TGHI AppSwarm and Touchpoint to Focus NFT Development Around Metaverse Games and Rewards
Is the next Great Muppet Reaping at hand?
Is the next Great Muppet Reaping at hand?
Take-Two's $12.7 Billion ZNGA Acquisition: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight, MoffettNathanson Downgrades to Neutral; Other Analysts Also Mixed
Infinite money glitch from gaming companies based on pre-orders
Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, Dec 21, 2021. Please enjoy!
Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, Dec 21, 2021. Please enjoy!
Mods, please help, I'm being censored and have proof including a $300k gain I can provide.
Do I need to DRS just to speak in these parts or did charlie find free loan?
FINRA their short interest rates on GME are just as crooked as the AAA+ CDO ratings from credit rating agencies in 2007-2008
Whack the CACC: I want to short the auto lending industry.
The banks would give people loans even if those people couldn't pay them back, put them in a tranche with a few hundred other poor souls and market those loans as AAA or AA when more than half the time they were BBB or BB. As you could imagine, when the interest rates kicked in on those loans and mortgages, people couldn't pay their AAA or AA loans because they weren't actually that good, and banks were losing money like it was nothing, so they had to take back all of those assets, most of which were over valued anyway because of the housing bubble caused by these over valued loans that the banks knew were over valued and the government knew they were over valued but we're getting paid to increase the ratings artificially. Basically, people were sold a scam and instead of the scammers getting punished, the scammed were. A true showcase of the corruption and idiocy that runs our institutions.
Listen you highly regarded Wendys employees..... Right this second is the Nvidia GTC meeting. It's been going on all week. All you have to do is look at who is attending those meetings and what they're selling. AI/ML and advanced compute. Yea yea, little billy can play the latest AAA game on 8k resolution but that is the small shit to keep you in the dumpster behind Wendys. The real story is who are at these meetings, how many industry leaders and government representatives are there? Spoiler alert, system integrators that develop shipping, defense, geospatial, etc solutions. And all that stuff is only getting better with Machine Learning. Nvidia knows this and that is why they're really selling to people that don't buy a 3060Ti so they can play burger flipping simulator. They sell to people that buy BUILDINGS full of A550s because they need to do crazy deep learning shit. ​ \*Disclaimer - I am a long-term bag holder that is too chicken shit to buy puts on Nvidia. This is not financial advice.... this is a Wendys sir.
The subprime mortgages were a symptom, not the root cause. You might benefit from watching "the Big Short" again. Easy access to capital caused banks to overleverage their assets as a means to remain competitive. Rating agencies (Moody's, Standard and Poor's etc..) failed to execute their sole purpose and gave AAA ratings to poorly performing assets. As a result the risk management profile for these assets was not representative of their risk/return. Greed and mismanagement were the root cause of the 2008 crash, just like the S&L crisis (search Charles Keating) and the dot.com bubble. There are prior analogous examples but those should help you to see these are recurring events with specific impetus and outcomes. In good times legislators give in to donors and remove restrictions that were put in place the last time something similar happened (Glass-Stegall, Dodd-Frank etc..). Then corporations take on excessive risk and reap record profits for a couple years. When it ends the citizens (taxpayers and the public lic at large) get stuck with the bill.
I've got the solution. We take this debt, and package it with a bunch of other unmanageable debt into a single product. We call it a "collateral debt obligation." Then we have S&P rate it AAA and sell it to a bunch of investors. Literally can't go tits up
Let's bring back AAA-rated subprime mortgage-backed securities. SVB and Credit Suisse were child's play compared to Lehman and Bear Sterns. We need a new meltdown to ascend to Harambe's level.
It is, but i dare you to play Gad of War on cellphone with touchscreen. Wait second, you can't, there's no God of War on GeForce Now, or any new AAA game.
The same Moody's that rated junk bonds as AAA prior to 2008?
It could be divided up into multiple financial instruments. The good mayo in some and sold as AAA mayo, and the bad mayo packaged with bread or like you suggssted "MOASSEROLE", and resold on a different market. Can't fail!
Yeah they should just package all the toxic assets mix with some mediocre ones, hire some rating company to give them AAA rating and sell it, I bet you it will still sell like hot cakes today.
These credit rating agencies have no credibility after 2007-09 Great Recession. S&P, Moodys, and Fitch gave AAA ratings to garbage-tier mortgage-backed securities, which were toxic time bombs. Sadly, the retail investor has to do in-depth research and analysis to figure this stuff out on their own. We can't trust these "credit rating agencies" clowns.
Yes....flash us those AAA setups.
1. Trade with discipline like chess, not like a first person shooter 2. Wait for a AAA entry, not 50/50 bullshit 3. Don't be fucking greedy 4. There will always be another trade, losing money is 10x worse than missing some gains. 5. Be patient. (see rule one)
Don’t forget these are the same ratings agencies that said securitized mortgages were AAA in 2007
LOL. The same rating agencies were give AAA ratings to CDO in 2007.
Personally, I think Alphabet is the most obvious AI play, but the market thinks Nvidia is. It's the one, sure, AI bet. Maybe META ultimately ends up with the best AI. Maybe it's Alphabet. Maybe Microsoft. Some unknown startup that nobody has ever heard of before. The one thing that everybody does know however, is that Nvidia is the one that's going to be selling the shovels during the gold rush. Also, no one is anywhere close to Nvidia technology wise. AMD might be the closest, but they're not in the same league. AMD is AAA and NVDA is major leagues. Nvidia has been the leader in this industry for 20 something years. They proven it repeatedly
Citadel is a hedge fund, not a bank. They allow large hedge funds to also be market makers because of their supposed knowledge and capital/liquidity positions. Technically Citadel's hedge fund operations need to be totally separate from its market making activities. Volcker rule doesn't apply to Citadel the way it applies to banks, even regional banks. Realistically, all it takes to be a market maker is to have sufficient capital and liquidity to fill trade orders prior to finding a counterparty so very short term. Any national or super regional bank can do that - some regionals depending on the market and that bank's charter. Some banks rely on capital markets underwriting and trading activities more than others. All in all market making is just a service that anyone can perform. The banks looking for liquidity are very different. On a banks balance sheet deposits are the liability and loans are the asset. So when people take deposits out of the bank the bank will need to sell assets to meet demand. No one has enough liquid assets to meet the full demand of all depositors, that would be impossible to do. When a lot of depositors take money out the banks does the following 1. Pay out available cash, 2. Sell it's "available-for-sale securities" portfolio. This is generally made up of short dated treasuries or AAA rates bonds. 3. Sell it's "held-to-maturity" securities. This is where the problem comes in as they are longer dated securities like mortgage backed securities, municipal bonds that are not supposed to be sold. When SVB went to sell this portfolio they had to do it at a major loss because of interest rate risk within that portfolio. The next thing to sell would be loan portfolios which takes a lot of time and is also done at a big discount.
MOODY'S SAYS IT IS COMFORTABLE WITH AAA RATING FOR SWISS SOVEREIGN DEBT FOLLOWING CREDIT SUISSE LIQUIDITY INJECTION FROM CENTRAL BANK ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
>MOODY'S SAYS IT IS COMFORTABLE WITH AAA RATING FOR SWISS SOVEREIGN DEBT FOLLOWING CREDIT SUISSE LIQUIDITY INJECTION FROM CENTRAL BANK ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-16 ^09:49:06 ^EDT-0400
Ooooooooh boy, I wonder how the banks are going to fail with bad AAA loans this time 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
rates trades chasing "Dwarf Cavendish" (AAA banana cultivar group) on trees jumping left/right/up/down & some of them falling to ground...
Couple a couple odd comments as you say, but the overall context for failure as basic ineptitude by leadership and how the Fed is dumping MBS on regional banks they cannot afford to hold in an inflationary environment along with the correlation between a AAA and a BB grade at 500bps was interesting.
The difference as I see it is that in 2008 we had a moderately large class of bonds (MBS) that was complete trash, while the majority of mortgages were actually good. Compared to now where almost all treasuries issued in the last few years are severely underwater. They might not be total trash, but the magnitude and how widespread it is makes it a much larger problem. Status in 2008 - 300Billion dollar hole Large parts of AA and lower rated MBSs would default. However by far most of MBSs were AAA and were not affected by the crisis. So out of all the MBSs the cumulative default rate was only 6%. Few very bad apples, but in general not terrible. Probably around 300-500Billions in total losses in the end. Status in 2023 - Trillion dollar hole in unrealized losses While the loss of each treasury is only partial, The problem is universal through all treasuries making the total loss much much larger. the cumulative hole in treasury valuations is multiple times worse than the defaults of mortgages in 2008. So the only difference as I see it now is that even those that were prudent in picking secure treasuries are going to lose their stuff.
Bank liquidity is an issue, but it seems like the FED is dealing with that via buying them at par value. Hopefully that eliminates the risk, and double hopefully we learn that other banks are more.... competent at risk management than SVB was. While some banks might have crypto related problems, my understanding of the GFC was that MBS were treated as AAA bonds and they got spread everywhere. When it was realized they were not AAA, no one knew what value anything had. Crypto, and anything related to it, never was treated as anything other than a risk asset. People who took risk might be brought down, but I can't think of a systemic failure from that. I've been wrong before though.
Pretty much, he's a goddamned child too. Meanwhile Thiel and all of the investors that lobbied for bank deregulation caused the run that did svb in when they panicked & warned their investors to pull out. It was stupid af of svb to announce the issue while lining up funding too. None of this is surprising, svb didn't even have a risk manager for 8 months. They were stocked up on long term bonds almost entirely for one industry; did they expect the fed to keep rates at 0 forever? To the people whining about wokes and dems causing this, that's fucking stupid. This is 100% because svb wasn't properly assessing risk and liquidity, ironically after lobbying hard to have gov oversight of both removed under djt. When will people learn that banks and finance can't be trusted, they'll crash the economy selling shit bundles of loans & rating AAA if it means bonuses for bosses.
Useless entity. In other news,Moody's just gave Lehman Brothers another AAA rating.
It looks like it says A rated to the left. The others are AAA and B/ BB / BBB.
Print moar money CS to issue central bank guaranteed 100 year corporate bonds, credit rating AAA because of government's guarantee Central banks offer 30 year liquidity facility in exchange for "high quality" collateral at face value ​ There. Done.
I've been searching for what I thought would be an easy answer to find, but maybe my keywords are wrong... Would someone please explain exactly what happens to stocks when you're holding shares in a public company and it's bought by another, larger public company in a cash transaction? Here's the statement: >Under the terms of the agreement, XXX will be acquired by AAA. AAA will pay $[plenty] in cash for each share of XXX common stock in a deal valued at approximately $2.9 billion. My question is, if the sale goes through will the XXX shares magically disappear while cash is deposited to my brokerage account? Or do I have to take specific action at the time of sale?
Hertz had a ‘AAA’ and sold 900 mil of bonds back in 2020, then they collapsed and went bankrupt.
If I need a crystal ball to determine how stable a bank is, then the bank is unstable. For example you can look at a house's foundation and be 99% sure of how reliable it is, or at least, what kind of shocks it can handle. But let's say you're unable to see one entire side of the house - You know three sides are 99% stable, but the fourth is a total unknown. As a society our idea of risk management is to try to imagine real hard what could happen to the house and if the three sides could handle it, then just assume the fourth side is an average of the other three. But the side we can't see could maybe just be some sticks shoved in the dirt. Or the foundation is completely gone. That's how we got garbage Moody ratings like AAA for Mortgage-Backed Securities back in the day, and now SVB being supposedly a liquid and dependable institution.
In 2008 you made most money shorting the AAA because everyone thought it would stop to the Cs and Bs I'm shorting the big banks
>To bad that 91b HTM was only worth 74b at 12/31. Where did you get this number? Their AFS portfolio was sold at only a 9% discount to original book. >If their HTM was so high quality they would still be in business and or the fed would of been able to find a buyer. Their HTM was all in AAA MBS and 10 year treasuries, it's hard to get more high quality than that. Wanna bet not a single dollar of public money will.be spent on SVB? Toxx bet me
Remember an AAA rating measures CREDIT risk not PRICE risk 😂😂😂😂
If we had to point the finger at one entity that enabled the entire GFC to happen it was the rating agencies (Moody's, S&P, etc.). They were the ones who deliberately gave MBS and CDOs AAA ratings, when they knew full well these things were packed with toxic, subprime loans. People should have gone to jail for that In theory, there is nothing "wrong" with MBS or CDOs, provided they are assessed accurately, and investors know the risk. In this case, they were not, and investment banks ended up with a pile of this stuff they couldn't move. In the case of SVB, the analysts assumed that inflation was "transitory", and that there would be 1-2 rates hikes at the most. The Federal Reserve, Biden, and others all promised the public that this was a temporary thing, that inflation was simply due to supply shocks and COVID, and that it would be quickly resolved by the Fall of 2021. So SVB had no worries taking on massive amounts of treasuries and other debt instruments--they assumed they could sell these things with minimal impact if a problem arose. Then the Fed went on a rate-raising spree and massively devalued these things. SVB was crushed. We can't have politicians and the Fed making irresponsible and clearly incorrect statements to the banking sector, or the public in general.
> I don’t know Only correct answer. No outsider could’ve known what was coming in 2008. Unless you somehow knew credit agencies we’re not doing their job there was no reason to think AAA assets were as exposed as they were. It’s a good message because it just shows how fancy finance can hide things from us.
A lot of MBS is tranched, so it it could be the AAA tranche at a much lower yield. But you're right that 1.59% is entirely too low, it's likely ~75 bps higher than that, even for the AAA tranche.
While there are a lot of banks with impaired AAA assets, many were smart enough to hedge them or layer them in such a way to withstand drawdowns. However, no amount of interest rate horsefuckery will save a bank if people decide to panic and empty their accounts. SVB's risk management failed and was magnified by the tech bros deciding to sodomize them. The inflation fight will go on but may slow down due to the SVB wake-up call, but there is no Faustian choice here.
How the heck Moodie rated SVB AAA right before the collapse?
They prob invested in the AAA rated tranches. Overall yield on the MBS is slightly lower than the underlying mortgages to get CE on excess yield
2008 was almost the opposite with rating agencies passing grade F- Bull plop as AAA certified investments. And knowingly doing it too
They should have gone with restructed MBS into CDO’s. Those things always had a AAA rating by all the rating agencies. What could possibly go wrong?
It's all AAA according to... me! :D Trust me bro
No one is buying this and bailing it out unless the government pays them to do so. We'll be lucky if the rest of the banks don't fold within a few months as all the failed home loans over the pandemic don't have to be accurately reported by May. Welcome to the thunderdome motherfuckers. We can add this for highlights: https://uproxx.com/viral/jim-cramer-silicon-valley-bank/ All those analysts saying banks are safe? Yeah those are the guys from the big short, telling you the stock is AAA because other wise they don't get business,
Wait wait, I got a genius idea, why don't we package those lose as assets, hire some rating company to give them AAA rating and sell it! God me smart!
found this, with data from 2008 from Moody's and S&P. https://monevator.com/bond-default-rating-probability/ AAA muni bonds had a 0% default rate historically, while AAA corporates had a 0.60% rate (6/10th of 1%). the default rate gets higher as you go into lower quality debt, B-grade bonds have 8% default rates for munis and over 50% for corporates. these numbers may or may not be accurate today, but it's something...
the ratings on MBS have been suspect for along time. Even the worst of them carried AAA back in 2006--just sayin now this isn't 2008. Very different situation, but let's hope problems in the banking sector don't turn into systemic problems in the real-estate sector
Sorry but no, its completely different. The issue in 2008 was defaults of CDOs of non-agency RMBS bonds. These are agency MBS bonds, which are AAA and money good. This has nothing to do with MBS specifically really. MBS just "happened" to the type of fixed-rate bond they were holding SVB's portfolio of MBS could have been entirely in US Treasuries (*that had a similar mod dur*), and the same thing would have happened. The only commonality is the liquidity issue.
I am a shareholder because it is so healthy, they are one of two companies with a AAA credit rating for a reason (the other being Microsoft)
A little over half a million people die, each flu 'season', just due to influenza. https://ourworldindata.org/influenza-deaths A little more than that die of malaria each year. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/malaria So, just between those two common diseases, about 1.2 million people die every year, and they have for quite a number of years. In fact, those figures have gone down massively since the 1900s, when we lost 24.7 million globally (as a low estimate figure) over two years to the 'Spanish' flu. *Note: which wasn't Spanish at all, but Spain first reported on the outbreak, thus bearing the misnomer. Great article about that here:* https://www.paho.org/en/who-we-are/history-paho/purple-death-great-flu-1918#:~:text=Despite%20its%20name%2C%20researchers%20believe,breeding%20ground%20for%20the%20virus. Losing over a million people more may have some effect on labor figures and in loss of consumers, but the percentages of impact are relatively small, as other posters on here have pointed out. I've been in the workforce for 27 years. To me, the most significant impact covid-19 has had is by normalizing remote work--in private and public sector--for over three years. It's almost as if a gigantic focus group/ study has taken place. Workers who do not have to be in office are choosing to remain remote, a benefit that many have embraced as a total lifestyle change, a positive force for work/ life balance. Several public sector agencies have taken note of these changes to staff habits, the productivity and morale boosts, as well as the alleviation of the traffic, commute hours given back and avoisance of the drudgery of office life. Less sick days are taken. More classes on mental health and balance are attended. Agencies have been letting go of leases, reducing their footprint, and reveling in needing to pay out less mileage reimbursements. Literal tons of carbon dioxide are being kept out of the air. To many, it feels like the office has evolved, finally. Thus, to me, this lifestyle and work change has a far more reaching effect than the deaths from covid ever could. Cities are heaving to imagine different uses for the empty office buildings. Many workers and managers have moved away from urban areas to cheaper living situations. Some have started hobbies like beekeeping or serious gardening. Families have scaled back from two or three cars to one. More gig work is available for deliveries. More folks are ordering household items on Amazon, or handmade gifts from Etsy, or second-hand designer clothes from Poshmark. Many areas of the economy have been affected by covod-19, from office building owners to travel dependent/ seasonal businesses, tourist shops, hotels, amusement parks, et cetera. Local big stores have lost even more market share to Amazon and other stores, like Target, Costco, and Walmart, that have transitioned to more online shopping. According to AAA, the average number of all daily personal car trips plunged 45% in April 2020 and 40% for trips by all modes of transportation combined. The dip in travel moderated later in the year but has remained below 2019 levels. Source: https://newsroom.aaa.com/2021/07/travel-before-and-during-covid-july-2021/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20research%2C%20the,but%20remained%20below%202019%20levels. Many workers have discovered they're happier with less l, have more time for self-care, and spend more quality time with their loved ones. They also seem to be spending a lot online, whether in video games, shopping, or bread-making equipment. 🍞 It seems to me that even *one* of these ripples in the pond would all mess with various business projection statistics, let alone all of them combined. The rapid descent from folks praising tech to cannibalizing it ravenpusly this year was an eye-opening insight into how scared, confused, and in the dark we all are about what happens next. Most of the day traders and economists that I know and/or listen to are using extreme caution in the market and are leaning back in their chairs, waiting to see what will happen next... while all their one-treasured historical charts are lying on the floor, disused and trampled upon. Like some others, I'm kind of watching the fire from afar, wondering if it's worth investing in firehose equipment now... or waiting until the fires are out and turn the land into a nature preserve for bees and other pollinators, instead of the sprawling, empty development that was once there. Now, there are some moxie-soaked daredevils out there that risk everything to jet in and out of the flames, pulling valuables out and making a very small fortune. However, once cashed out, they'll turn around and make an absolute *killing* selling youtube courses on "how to make it like me!" It's a brave new world, I guess. No one really knows what the full impact of Covid-19 will be for probably another five-ten years, if then. Bit of a long-winded post, but I hope this broadened your vision of how many theories and experiments are playing out. Watching the plethora of economy news pieces feels like the proverbial chucking of darts at the projection dartboard.
Please women play at AAA MIDGET level. But off the ice sure
Ha, I searched this sub wondering if anyone else was wondering this. I was also reading a few posts along the lines of “why didn’t everyone buy 30 year bonds when they were 15% in 1981.” Answer: it didn’t necessarily seem like a good deal then, inflation was nearly as high, rates could have gone higher, etc. In short, uncertainty. The exact kind of uncertainty we have now. I’ve been eying AAA bonds but none of the names look good to me yet for a high enough yield but that’s slowly changing. Sub 1 year treasuries are pretty good actually if that’s your horizon. Hard to imagine 30 year treasuries get too much higher than they are but given where we are, a few points higher isn’t too far fetched, and then we are close to average long term stock returns. I don’t think this will ever appear to be the sure thing trade though, if it looks like that then it’s probably a mirage. And like in the 80’s you’ve got the fear that rates keep going up and hurting your position, yield aside.
Talking heads on CNBC throwing up their hands not knowing what to say or do. I have been posting 2Yr/Corporate AAA rates for months and the correlation to equity moves. Why, someone who is dumb as shit like me, can I look at actual data and say, "This shit is fucked up and we are going lower." and these people who are paid to do this shit have their thumbs up their asses? FFS. ​ I started a long position in UNH today. 😁
I charted [this strategy](https://i.ibb.co/WcQCyZF/AAA0-D15-D-B9-AB-4-A48-BA63-BB07-DBB3-C482.jpg) out for SPY. ChatGPT needs to stick to ETFs and bonds
The number of people performing the action doesn't change the fact that the action is possible, and therefore separates it from Bitcoin where that action is not possible. This is where implicit value comes into play. Sure, dividends can get cut, that's why you buy a broadly diversified ETF filled with hundreds if not thousands of profitable companies. Bonds are lending, but they can be risk free, for example treasuries, or nearly risk free, such as AAA debt. Lending Bitcoin has proven to be absurdly risky. And yes, owning a rental property is a business. Agreed.
Ah yes. Bring me back to 08 with those AAA CDOs
The mortgage backed securities crisis happened because AAA rated loans were actually subprime. Markets are fine with losses. A crisis happens when something safe turns out to be risky. It's like rock climbing. If you grab a risky rock, it's fine. But if the safe rock you're putting all your weight on slips, that's when you fall. In this case, everyone already knows that those mortgage bonds have lost value due to rising interest rates. It's already priced into the market. BND plummeted 12% over the past year and 20% since the 2020 peak. Bank stocks have also tanked in value. Last year was one of the few times in history where both stocks and bonds both tanked at the same time. Everyone has seen those balance sheets and marked those assets down to market.
Fair enough, thanks for responding. I respectfully disagree with you on both points: the NFT marketplace might seem mundane and not very profitable, however, most formal projections of the web3 space account for rapid explosion of AAA games transitioning towards web 3 this year, whereas the web 3 space is already seeing a exponential growth of multi billion dollars each quarter. Additionally, somewhat speculating, it gives GameStop a credible reason to issue an NFT dividend, demolishing the (naked) shorts. Your second point: even if the hardcore following is declining together with the share price, like you assume, the DRS numbers prove otherwise, already locking up 60% of the free float and lucking up te full float in less then a year (if the progress keeps going). If the share price further declines the float is going to be locked up in retail hands through DRS even quicker... Giving household investors the majority of ownership in GameStop, also crushing the (naked) shorts, never done before in the history of Wall street in this manner. To the uninformed eye GameStop might seem over and done, to the informed eye the game is just beginning to become interesting.
If you need liquidity, buy T-bills ETFs: * USFR for FRNs, which are a new (since 2014) product from the U.S. Treasury * TFLO also holds FRNs, yield is slightly lower than USFR * SGOV for fixed rate 0-3mo maturity T-bills, lowest yield * FLOT for corporate AAA flexible rate bonds, highest yield but not no-risk like the three above, which hold T-bills T-bills ETFs will be largely exempt from state and local taxes. Holding these ETFs gets monthly dividends, can sell anytime to buy anything else, same day.
They’re also AAA rated by Moody’s
it's been legal in Canada for longer. you can get amazing weed for $100/oz so it doesn't seem to insane that old stuff could be that cheap, they just don't sell low quality here at all. it's either AAA, AAAA, or AAAA+
It’s gonna be both. The kids will adopt the silly VR, then the technology will be incredibly immersive and AAA game studios will get involved. AI will also revolutionize the applicable industries, they’ll probably even merge in a lot of ways.
Good to know. I had AAA when I had my last car because it was older and alternators don’t last over 200k miles. When it finally died at 260k, I called AAA at 6 pm while I sat on the side of the interstate. 1.5 hour wait on a tow. At 7:45 pm I called and asked where’s the tow truck. They said it was canceled and they would send another one in 1.5 hours. At 9:30 I called them and said the truck still wasn’t there. They didn’t seem to gaf and said to keep waiting. I told them I’m leaving, pick up the car and tow it to my address. They said, you have to be with your car. I said no I don’t and I left it there. At 4:00AM, a tow truck driver calls me and says he’s got my car and is otw. That ended my relationship with AAA. Now I have a Toyota so I shouldn’t need AAA.
I don't know about older Mercedes, but new ones are expensive to maintain and difficult to do the work on your own. I know of people paying $600 for regular maintenance at a dealer and $500 for a new battery, this is with AAA roadside not being able to figure out how to charge the battery.
I pay nearly the same as OP here for two cars. One paid off. I have some accidents and claims in the past but none were my fault. I have never even paid my deductible. A lot of it is Michigan's fault but even my parents and middle aged people pay like 40/mo for 2 cars. They all tell me "oh the insurance will plummet once you hit 25." Still waiting 5 years later. An agent did a run of my MVR and said that even using a claim for roadside assistance and rentals is causing my rates to keep going up. Ummm what? Roadside assistance makes me more volatile? In what world? All I did was get a tow to a dealership from my house because of a dead battery. Her recommendation? Call AAA and don't use your insurance. Then what's even the point ...
AAA ratings on used POSes but LOTS of used POSes makes it OK
Short term treasuries at the moment have slightly higher yields than CDs. Perhaps agency and gse bonds if you have longer duration needs? I believe that most agency and gse bonds should be AAA rated.
Glad to see you realized you had a drug problem and joined AAA… oh shit that is for flat tires !!!! Sorry
TLDR(?): The 2008 financial crisis was caused by a combination of factors, including the low interest rates offered by the Federal Reserve and the easy availability of mortgages for homebuyers. The Chinese government's demand for US T-bills brought interest rates down, and a surge in the popularity of exotic investment instruments such as the Mortgaged Backed Security (MBS) and the Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread the risk of loans across the entire economy. The CDOs were usually broken up into "tranches" or levels of risk, with lower levels absorbing losses first. Demand for houses and mortgages increased, leading to a housing bubble. Credit ratings agencies were too easygoing, giving most of the top levels of the CDOs a AAA rating. When the housing bubble burst, the risk spread throughout the economy, leading to the financial crisis. Unfortunately, this summery, does not do describe the details.
You are simply wrong. AAA bonds are yielding about 4.75% pre-tax, so about 3.75% or lower after tax. That is about 250 bps below inflation. You keep making claims that are completely false. I've explained it; I can't help you anymore.
Have you even looked at their fundamentals? Bankruptcy? How do you invest in a company that you don't understand their fundamentals or financial status. Let's look at how much money SoFi has, shall we? As of Q3 2022 (10K is not out yet) SoFi had 10,662,995K unpaid principal on their loans. (page 27 of the 10Q) Out of all of that, 2,314,950K are from warehouse facilities (page 51 of the 10Q). Out of the remaining, SoFi also had 5,031,630K deposits (page 4 of the 10Q). After accounting for both, SoFi had $3.3B of their own money in loans (seeing as there are only 3 sources of money to fund loans). Now, this is just their own money that is in loans. This is assuming all deposits are used for loans (which they quite possibly are not), this is also ignoring their cash and cash equivalents of $935mil in Q3 which would include their revolving facility money of $486mil. ​ Now, for them to actually actually head to bankruptcy they have to spend more than they make. But it doesn't really work that way with GAAP accounting because GAAP accounting counts non cash expenses as well, for example SBC expenses. From their cash flows and my own spreadsheets, Q3 marked SoFi's first quarter where SBC expense is higher than their actual net loss, meaning they are actually increasing their own cash situation. In Q3 the difference between SBC expense and the net loss was about $3mil, in Q4 that difference increased to $30.9mil (while SBC expense was decreasing from Q2 to Q3 and then to Q4). ​ In a later reply I saw you said SoFi has issues selling securitizations, that is plainly wrong. SoFi literally sold 2 securitizations in the last 4 months (440mil and 340mil) within a day, both receiving AAA ratings from 3 different rating companies. [Finsight](https://finsight.com/sponsor-8773-social-finance-inc?products=ABS%2CHYC%2CIGC®ions=APAC%2CEMEA%2CLATM%2CUSOA) The buyers of these securitizations? Bank of America, Cantor Fitzgerald, Goldman Sachs, JPM, US Bancorp, Mizuho, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank. This is on top of them doing whole loan sales because securitizations are less profitable to do. In Q3 they sold $1.08B of loans (value of unpaid principal on them) for which they received $1.1B for.
But Fitch gave garbage MBS a AAA rating into the gfc and they're doing fine. No prosecutions. Nothing. You're ruled by criminals.
The economy is 50% psychology. If company's like Adani, Enron and Madoff can cook there books and have a lot of power, why can't the government do it too? Recession? Just change the standards. Housing default? Just change them to AAA rating as a rating bureau.
A trillion dollars is really nothing much in the world of the bond market. Its less then a percent and seeing how us bonds are AAA it would be easily absorbed by other countries and investment funds.
The AAA Corporate bond index yield spiked up from 4.65% last night to 4.78% tonight. This usually runs with the 2 YR Treasury yield. That's a really large jump in a day. It hit 4.86% on September 26th when the market took a dump then it hit 4.94% on October 12th. The day the market hit the lows in 2022. The index ran up to 5.13% a week later and stayed elevated for a month. The market hit five smaller dumps between October 12 and November 9 before the AAA Corporate index yield slowly came down around the 4.5-4.7 levels until Feb 1 2023 where it hit a near low in 2023 of 4.23%. Its been a slow, steady run back up to the 4.78% level tonight. I think we would have to see this index hit 5.0-5.15 before the dump given the narrative from the FED about 5.0-5.5% rates to calm inflation. I have been saying since last year I expect a dump back down to 340-360 by end of the month March or early April. If this index yield is any indication of what could happen, we might just see that dump in the next month or two. Add to that the liquidity issues brought up before and Im starting to lean heavily to my predicted outcome. I did buy some 3/17 360 SPY puts the other day but I think Im shy a month to see those do much. https://data.nasdaq.com/data/ML/AAAEY-us-aaa-rated-bond-index-yield
The Federal Funds rate is the rate at which the market generally (not just banks) lend money to the government for very short term loans (2 day, 7 days, 30 days...). Banks lend to each other on the short term market without collateral in escrow at a slightly higher rate. When you are talking about the 30 year government bond that's a long term loan. Generally the Federal Reserve doesn't seek to control that interest rate. Rather the market sets it based on predictions of future inflation (to about 1.5% above the best estimate for inflation). As in all things you get paid to take risk. A 30 year mortgage is about 15 years duration so if it were risk free and no hassles it would trade at the 15 year government bond's level which is going to be more like 1.3% above expected 15 year inflation generally. But there are administrative hassles and risk of default on a mortgage. Those administrative hassles incur costs and the bank passes those costs on to you. The credit risk (risk of default) is low but it isn't 0, the first bit of credit risk is very expensive (look at AAA bond interest rates vs. treasuries) and your mortgage isn't AAA. A 2% spread over the 30 day loan to the government is a sweetheart deal. It could, and probably should be more like a 4.5% spread.
AAA Corporate bonds have been rising since the beginning of Feb even as the market has risen. They are pretty much at parity with the 2Yr around 4.68%. They are at levels we saw in September of 2022. 5.13%ish was what we hit with the big October lows but the 4.60-4.80% levels in September was hit as we started to dump to the lows. Something to watch, especially if the VIX decides to rise.
>Again, you might it's lazy, neither trash nor a scam. The engine is top notch and they used code provided by the Epic Games developers willing for it to be copied. If it wasn’t advertised as a AAA I would agree. >And you could say that ImmutableX is inept if it were the case that the code was stolen, which it wasn't. So their vetting process is yet to be proven wrong. I’m not talking about the code. The overall quality itself. The AAA advertisement. But this isn’t surprising considering the origin of IMX. >They offer quite a lot of features that Lyra doesn't have. Such as? Because they seem to use the exact same weapons and sounds. At least overhaul the thing significantly if you are just building on top of the starter project. >But I do think it is funny that you actually seem to think that Fiat is not made up money. It’s not. It’s backed by the government that issues it. But you are free to not use it. >Especially the dollar started being made up money when it broke away from the gold standard. I think you should read up on why we broke away from the gold standard. >For now I'm just along for the ride and trust neither but I'm not yet sure what else to use aside from GME. That’s hardly a currency. >Only the free float matters as far as I know since the rest is mostly DRSed and locked up in the Companies name because of Employee contracts. But I'm gonna have a look at it again since I can't remember exactly anymore. It’s a made up idea to make the progress look better. Excluding institutions, mutual funds, ETFs, etc… makes no sense. All of the can and do buy/sell all the time.
>Yes resale is already possible but only on the platform without competition and a defined price, right? With web3 the possibility is you own the game and you can trade yourself without the platform. Would any publisher like that? No. Pretty sure they like to control the price of their games. Simple example though. A new copy of a game is selling for $50. Used copies are selling for $25 where the publisher makes 10% on resale of those used copies. That means they will get $50 for every new copy sold and $2.50 for every resale. Now assuming resale was allowed they could do that. Or they could simply lower the price of the game to $25 and take 100%. >Maybe it doesn't if web3 gets bigger and bigger and they aren't needed anymore since sale, resale or renting will be easier to facilitate with Nft Marketplaces like gamestop or others. Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, Steam, etc… all have fully functional online shops and infrastructure to support them. Adding such features isn’t too much trouble. >But even if they have to bite the bullet and allow resale, they will get more people to play the game and in turn earn more money with ingame items. Which they can still collect 100% of by not involving a third party. >So how is this a rip off, they made the engine open source you use it and they even explain how to copy the Lyra animation. Also Kiraverse made the maps, the skins, the web3 logic like rentable items ingame play to earn(I don't like that one) etc. A lot of work that has nothing to do with Lyra. Because they basically just made a few maps and skins on top of the starter project and called it a AAA game. It’s honestly trash. >Is it a bit lazy and opportunistic to make a 3d shooter, absolutely. But it's nothing bad since it is supported by developers themselves. Oh that’s the funny thing. The developers are completely anonymous. Not shady at all. >Also somebody would have done a 3d shooter with the engine anyway since Lyra isn't fully developed. It functions almost identically to Lyra. >Also pulling the promoter (ImmutableX) into it which has no Idea about the programming is not fair. It just means they don’t have any sort of vetting process for the games they promote. But fair enough. My expectations are very low on that front given the shear number of scams in the web3 space. >Need to look at net losses and the assets but this seems to be lack of knowledge on my part and they probably wouldn't be profitable even without the reinvestment. Correct. >But the ongoing rent of unprofitable overseas stores goes into net loss and they are being continuously closed over the next few years which gives hope for a better outlook. Possible. But the bulk of their stores are in the US. >Why what? Tokenizing or getting off Fiat? One liberates it from Cede & Co, the other liberates it from the Fed and its tyranny. What's not to like about that? So you are just going to trade in some made up currency? Don’t covert back to fiat then. >500k is one of the worst quarters. But it didn't get to DRS over 50% of the free float with only this little. And if more people join it will go faster. “Free float”. When talking about the actual float it’s 30%.
>I mean it’s already solved. Publishers / platforms just don’t allow it. It’s called a database. >What exactly do you mean with this? I mean enabling trading / resale of games could be allowed easily. But they don’t because they can sell another copy at full price. We can also trade between platforms by allowing the linking of external accounts. >Ah that “AAA” scam. Maybe next time the devs would actually put in effort and not just ripoff Lyra. >Again, what do you mean with this, I don't follow it closely and don't know which devs you mean but as a dev I know that it is perfectly OK to not reinvent the wheel. As long as no licenses have been violated everything is fair game. I mean they literally took the starter project and tried to pass it off as a AAA game. It’s a scam. https://docs.unrealengine.com/5.0/en-US/lyra-sample-game-in-unreal-engine/ >All I wanted to say from the getgo is that Gamestop is building new legs to stand on and even if they won't be leading in anything they will have additional revenue and won't be out of business anytime soon. With the economy slowing they propably won't be profitable in the next year, but the will still be good investment in my opinion. I don’t think making a few hundred bucks a day is going to solve the 100M they lose per quarter. https://www.gmft.xyz/ >Also the added bonus of a cult that wants to destroy the global market and invests in the stock, come hell or high water, is reassuring. Good news is you won’t accomplish that by holding stock in a video game pawn shop. Even so you want to destroy the global economy and somehow you think your shares will be worth something when that happens?
I mean it’s already solved. Publishers / platforms just don’t allow it. It’s called a database. What exactly do you mean with this? Ah that “AAA” scam. Maybe next time the devs would actually put in effort and not just ripoff Lyra. Again, what do you mean with this, I don't follow it closely and don't know which devs you mean but as a dev I know that it is perfectly OK to not reinvent the wheel. As long as no licenses have been violated everything is fair game. The problem to private information in the public ledger is Layer3 I think, but I didn't look at that in depth yet. We are slowly moving away from the Gamestop topic and towards web3 problems, which wasn't my intention. Web3 will get bigger and a company investing into web3 has potential to grow in that sector. All I wanted to say from the getgo is that Gamestop is building new legs to stand on and even if they won't be leading in anything they will have additional revenue and won't be out of business anytime soon. With the economy slowing they propably won't be profitable in the next year, but the will still be good investment in my opinion. Also the added bonus of a cult that wants to destroy the global market and invests in the stock, come hell or high water, is reassuring.
>A lot will be Images like Skins, inventory, collector items in general. What makes you think it will be 99%? Because it is? >True it hasn't solved it, my bad, but I think they are still early. I mean it’s already solved. Publishers / platforms just don’t allow it. It’s called a database. >Kiraverse and ImmutableX are integrating it. But I don't follow it to closely, only know what I see on the Homepage. Ah that “AAA” scam. Maybe next time the devs would actually put in effort and not just ripoff Lyra. https://youtu.be/4j-2aAb0Y5k >The uses of NFT are still in development and the NFT are already more than just a simple file or license, what more is to come I don't know, but NFT can already be used as a pointer to a bigger repository of files. It has a lot of potential. A repository of files that anyone can access. >Before it was the provider and your account that could be hacked. So there is still an upside. Now if it’s hacked or you make a mistake you have no recourse. Code is law! >Also with loopring integrated they have access to one of the cheapest L2 solutions. Ok. But it needs to **solve a problem**.
>So a company trying to restructure itself to capitalize on a $68 billion industry of in Game Asset purchases to be a potential leader to allow the exchange of in game assets to take this out into fiat currency, could in theory turn out to be one of those companies you mention that saw their exponential growth “years ago”. Uh huh. And why would game developers want to share any of that with GameStop? >It’s hard to say exactly but you couldn’t say for certain you aren’t looking at new market leader in a new market space that doesn’t exist yet. Or not at all. >Tencent the owners of Epic Games that produced Fortnite… has even got on board with GameStops push into the NFT space by backing IMX. https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/27/22696978/epic-tim-sweeney-nft-scam-concerns-web-3 >I guess they like losing money and throwing it at spaces they know won’t succeed. Oh yes we have great AAA hits such Kiraverse (straight rip off of the unreal engine 5 starter game) and Undead Blocks… https://youtu.be/4j-2aAb0Y5k Look familiar?