AAA

earthcomedy

Not in private credit in terms of $ there, but I relate in my head CLOs to private credit. - in terms of spreads / liquidity. I was just in PAAA, but that's basically zero now. I move up quality ladder as AAA CLOs are stilll technically lower rated from my understanding. Prudential PULS has some CLO exposure - but minimal. Ah yes, Treasury Direct. Their website is painful though. If I need something like that I use BILS State Street.

earthcomedy

yes.. i'm handidly up for the year in all accounts on an annualized basis beating all indices (12-35%+), and that's with deploying in risk-on assets - only partial. Vast majority of funds are in things like JPST/MINT/AAA CLO (Though I've exited most of my earlier CLO - private credit thing). STill have PULS. gold-resource-commodities have been the best, though I've traded in and out of defense, etc... cut losses early, don't get greedy!

ProlapseMishap

That is above the record amount in the state by more than $1.50 and I don't see anything on gas buddy or AAA charts so big doubt from me on this.

PinPsychological82

There is a reputable games industry analyst I follow and he said making racing games suck lol. The licensing, fees, and the smaller player bases don’t make it economical. Racing games are actually pretty bad. So much in licensing and fees compared to the player base. Also with the gaming industry maturing, new AAA investments are hard to justify. We are entering a brainrot economy where low attention entertainment is generating all the buzz

Emotional_Two_8059

Was the Private Credit AAA and Synthetic by any chance? Certainly not, right?

wishihadaps42

50% mobile rest is console and PC from what I understood in their financials. They focus on core big budget AAA games, highest quality possible, annual sports games with recurring revenue/monetization and of course mobile market of freemium monetized games.

wishihadaps42

I tend to agree. I do wish they had more in the pipeline but time will tell if they consider making some racing games and other large AAA investments.

Business-Ad-5344

it's hard to get what he means with those selected quotes, but in some places, he's talking about "We" as in "Society" and also in his lifetime, meaning society in his lifetime there was a point when video game industry did not exist. That is correct. because in his lifetime he's talking about since he was born. but then later he does say "modern video game industry." i say half true only because they invented the GPU. eventually coming out of that was Halo and Half Life. those are what "Modern" gaming originates from. I believe by "modern" gaming he's talking about splinter cell or call of duty, GTA, cyberpunk, etc. "modern" game is the games considered AAA games and cost millions to make. it's a bit of a stretch. I believe modern game industry is created mostly by the creative studios themselves.

Raskuja46

I think there's a good chance Playstation an Xbox just outright die before they manage to crank out another generation of consoles. AAA gaming market's been rolling out a lot of huge financial failures lately and people are turning to their backlog and more affordable games from smaller teams.

CalebVanPoneisen

You lost half an AAA game on stonks?

Jorsonner

Turn off Kuwaits AAA at this point. I’m sure we have enough without them.

888virgil

Actually, the 2008 crash was primarily due to the S&P failing to rate junk bonds as junk bonds instead of AAA. While at the same time, banks were making loans at 125% of value to underqualified people. You did not have to be poor to be involved in this huge fail in our financial system. I attribute it to bankers greed.

guhhhh_MU

lets compare banks running a huge Fraud with "AAA" rated subprime housing loans to tech companies who beat earnings by billions and continue to make tons of money. Notice the difference? Calls

Sel2g5

The problem with every AAA is that they're all looking to be gta with a campaign and unlimited money online platform. GTA is a unicorn. Give it up. Stay focused on making great games that innovate. The writing has been on the wall for a few years now, the games are cookie cutter and have lots of micro transactions. Make great games and build from there. Nothing else. The company is probably already dead.

Real_SkrexX

Ubisoft has always been really good at visuals. They kept that quality, yes. But I don't see real innovation there as well. Also graphics has been a selling point for a while, but since games pretty much all look pretty decent, this is way less important than before. Just look at all the very popular indie games that are far from AAA-graphics.

daddywookie

I’ve seen similar behaviour in another publisher, but that was for casual/midcore mobile games. I think the “same game but different IP” model works there, but not for AAA.

vincehk

Most acclaimed recent AAA videogames wouldn't exist without Ubisoft / Assassin's Creed though; Elden Ring, last 2 big Zelda, Ghost of Tsushima, Horizon etc

Familiar_Gazelle_467

all the reddit tards will bash it while probably preordering their next AAA release, lmao

McZootyFace

Indie games and AI are going to absolute fuck the AAA market.

No-Emergency4880

AAA stands for "AAAnd it's gone"

Dumbest-Questions

It's definitely not a full "wheel", but maybe they are talking about Berkshire Hathaway selling long-dated (10-15 year) puts before the GFC? It was a bunch of huge trades where everyone got fucked in the process - Berkshire lost their AAA rating over these things _and_ their counterparties mishedged the structures.

psydelicdaydreamer

And the wh*res at the ratings agencies will give you at 92-93% AAA rating, no questions asked

miseducation

Microsoft sells gaming hardware big dog. both consoles and practically the entire PC gaming market. They've been very vocal in saying the price of AAA games is a huge problem as a console manufacturer. they've promoted crossplay across consoles before it was standard. A big thriving game development environment undeniably makes microsoft money. The Xbox division is a big loser right now with this moat you speak of.

KweenieQ

I've had mixed results with REITs: Success until the sub-prime meltdown. Failures or meh since then. US real estate as a sector has been depressed for a while, but there are bright spots. You just have to find them at the right time. I like bonds. Good ol' fashioned "boring" bonds. Cash on a regular basis for reinvestment somewhere else. I hold them to maturity, so I get full face value back. Or I buy discounted issues on the secondary market and then get full face value at maturity. I make sure they're not callable, or that the last call date has passed, and I stick with investment-grade bonds (those rated AAA down to B). My husband has held gold and silver for about 10 years. Not ETFs or mining stocks; bullion. Silver has already come down from a recent high, but gold remains elevated. Be careful with this; volatility comes with the commodity.

KweenieQ

Bonds, investment-grade (AAA-B) or government-issued. The bond market operates differently than the stock market, but it's worth deciphering. You say you're risk-adverse, but you've got significant positions in equity funds and individual stocks. Consider whether that's the right allocation for you.

longinuslucas

Seriously, the only AAA asset I will buy is government debt. Can’t trust these rating companies no more

CoolBeansChemist

Listen we take a bunch of BB and BBB rated dogshit data centers package them together and get a AAA rating and sell that to people. Definitely sustainable and will not cause major economic issues.

Initial_Ad_9250

Triple AAA rating ,A stands for Ass

NewOil7911

We should pull together multiple data centers debts, to "diversify risk", and get a AAA rating. And then sell it to all investors worldwide. Let's call it a CDO.

Emotional_Goal9525

People consider them AAA bonds. WMT is less likely to go tits up than US is to default on bonds.

d33p7r0ubl3

K shaped economies can't last forever. Something has to give. If you're able to use AI to take weeks of work down to a single day, I'd argue you're doing trivial work. Do you mind sharing an example? I haven't found chat bots to be of any help on problems encountered in AAA games as every problem is novel.

Raskuja46

Yeah, but the AAA market is coming apart at the seams while indie games are beating them up and taking their lunch money. Players are just as happy to play games that run on a potato as they are ones that require big beefy hardware. Even if AAA moves all their stuff to cloud based, the fact that they're struggling to put out *good* games means it won't create the market shift you're imagining.

SavingsDimensions74

Thanks for your input, none of which is based remotely on fact. Literally, every point you make is totally wrong. Impressively so. I won’t waste my time on every point you make but Greece didn’t almost collapse due to fake AAA packages. It neared collapse because: Structural fiscal deficits Corrupt accounting/shitty tax regs Eurozone design flaws Inability to devalue its currency Mortgage-backed securities were minor by comparison I won’t go into the rest because you obviously serve your own narrative but in Canada during ‘08: No Canadian major bank failed No taxpayer bailouts Credit kept flowing Canada exited emergency policy earlier than the US/Europe But sure, you do you. I prefer facts

ChanThe4th

The funny part is Carney being awful for England and doing nothing for Canada is agreed upon in an almost unheard of bipartisan fashion. The only group supporting him is China because any damage to Western Alliance they feel is good. He got Canada through 08? Canada didn't have any exposure to the fake AAA packages, which were primarily held in Europe, which is why Greece almost collapsed. Him and Harper made trade agreements with China illegally hiding them from public view that are still intact today. To top it off he went to England after they sorted out most of their issues post 08' and he came in and absolutely demolished their gains. You could easily argue both Trump and Xi support Carney because he is going to destroy all Canadian prosperity and allow both super powers to do whatever they want. It blows me away people are ignoring this, but then again most of this app are clankers pushing propaganda.

MtGloomy0420

I remember that other guy saying a buyer was in the room last April. Must be like a AAA scout where they are just going stadium to stadium looking for that special magic.

hexcraft-nikk

Productivity isn't up, prices are. Quality control has gone down across every sector. From the AAA gaming market to mainstream software giants, to food conglomerates. They have cut corners everywhere and fired everyone. Many sectors are running on skeleton crews in order to make profits look better than they are.

Vlisa

True! Why give the AAA guy a top when he could give me a tip instead. 😍😍😍

Vlisa

Not to blog, but I locked my keys in the car and AAA is two hours away. I hope my misfortune brings y’all joy and you are having a good Valentine’s day.

Anon58715

Thanks. Because of the AAA ratings, I think both these companies share could be used as collateral in the repo market.

Anon58715

AAA rating, which is the other company besides MSFT?

opo113

I hold some software stock so I decided to check their credit ratings. Might be true in general that software companies in general have lower credit ratings, but it seems like the reputable ones are investment grade. *Disclaimer: I know basically nothing about credit ratings and this comment is probably categorically incorrect* ADBE has investment grade bonds: https://public.com/bonds/corporate/adobe-inc/adbe-5.3-01-17-2035-00724pak5 NOW is investment grade: https://public.com/bonds/corporate/servicenow-inc/now-1.4-09-01-2030-81762pae2?wpsrc=Organic+Search&wpsn=www.google.com MSFT is rated AAA, the highest possible rating, one of only two companies in the entire US with this high of rating: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/faq

nobertan

Broad Incompetence is why. Gaming arm blew all that money acquiring multiple AAA studios with next to no plan executed, and watched the value of them vanish. Xbox console has basically just given up even trying at this point, just turned up the gamepass price to absurd levels and removing games from said bought studios (which was a key reason in acquiring them in the first place); turning a market dominating product into a ‘questionable at best’ one. Windows 11 update is actually regressing because of the bloat and damage they’re actively doing to it, users have had enough. Their quantum hobby project is going nowhere, IVAS went nowhere (somehow they managed to get some money back on that, which was honestly surprising). Complete fumbling of co-pilot after pulling off a crystal ball deal with openAI, only to let all the first mover advantage pour all over the floor. MSFT had a broad profile of meandering and directionless products with its only shining light being Azure, but it remains to be seen how well it’s performing if it’s almost entirely due to OpenAI partnership or not. Then there’s Satya trying desperately (and it LOOKS desperate) trying to drum up support for Ai data centers. “*i solemnly swear to pay taxes*” was a good bit, making people ask “were they not already?”… MSFT is a real odd ball, as they have all the tools and market position to push on from here but somehow each division has no idea what they’re doing other than just jacking up prices to pad the books. There’s definitely a leadership culture crisis there if this continues. They’ll still be very profitable, but won’t be growing like everyone will be.

daytraderrr

Say what you will about MSFT, but it’s the only stock I truly feel comfortable loading up on at every dip. Wanna stack now for the inevitable split one day, long term hold for sure. Great company, great financials, many revenue streams, triple AAA credit, beat earnings, what’s not to like?

miseducation

Netflix has traded at Meta, Amazon multiples like 30x forever. Disney is probably the closest competitor and they're at 15x at best. Tech giants are maturing as businesses and Netflix is starting to be repriced more accurately in the same way that we've seen across non AI tech the last year. A more realistic multiple is pretty good for the core business considering that in the last 5 years: \- Market share dropped as Disney+, Paramount, HBO Max, Apple TV+ spent hundreds of billions to compete. \- Prices of subscriptions increased 40-60% depending on the plan. \- Number of global subscribers still doubled from 158-325m. \- Competitors have lost money funding their competing services and still have quite a bit to invest if they hope to catch up. I can't think of a good reason for them to lose significant revenue in the next five years. Their costs per asset are only going to shrink considering that they're consolidating the competition in WB, vertically integrating more studios, crews, production lots in huge build outs across the world, facing much weaker resistance from unions who have been annihilated post writer's strike. No promises whatsoever of explosive growth unless you think the ad platform and live sports have a lot to grow but no reason to doubt the core business will get anything but cheaper to produce and more profitable. WB acquisition brings some ugly debt but outside of IP it also brings the kind of prestige in AAA movies they have tried and failed to reproduce on their end. Content licensing outside of Netflix is also a new revenue channel since they would inherit those. Folks outside of the film business always: \- Overrate the potential of AI as disruptive to studios and distributors when they stand the most to gain from cheaper costs. \- Underrate how much Covid killed what was left of the legacy film industry in favor of streamers. \- Underrate how the writer's strike cemented their market position as the leader. Before the strike the major streamers were in a Mexican standoff to see who could fund more content. After the strike they never brought production costs back up to the old spend levels, and since they killed legacy film during covid, something like 50% of the writers/actors/directors who were striking would never get another gig again.

skeuser

Finally someone said it. Tax free AAA/AA munies when rates were high were very attractive.

Comprehensive-Law293

God & the universe are 2 grade AAA scumbags that love to fuck with me.

lOo_ol

BBB+ is not rated "quite high". It's 2 notches about junk bonds (BB+). Greece is rated BBB. In the same BBB+ category, you'll find the Philippines, Thailand or Indonesia. Germany, Switzerland, Australia are rated AAA. *"Just be aware that things are as simple as "the healthy treshold is 60% because 30 years they decided so"* You read what you wanted to read, because I'm pretty sure I said the opposite. The point is that there's no threshold in a form of a number. 60% was arbitrary back then, like saying $100T is the limit today. We'll only know how far the US can push it in hindsight, when this whole house of cards collapses.

zdravkov321

Can we get some AAA level regards to put a ton of money on spy puts so our calls can pop off? Thank you for your attention to this matter.

cupofchupachups

"You're absolutely right. That is too low of a credit rating for the USA. I apologize for error and have updated the credit rating to AAA." 

lordnikkon

i mean that is what the credit rating on bonds are. Except they are letter grades like AAA instead of numbers

Ok_Fly6165

Of course not buddy. Central banks only buy AAA bonds or so

Over-Computer-6464

VUSB. Avg maturity 1.3 years, duration 1.0 years. Corporate investment grade bonds, now about 4.1% yield. 0.1% expenses ratio. 2/3rd of portfolio are A or BBB, 22% AAA. ————————- VCSH. Maturity and duration 2.8/2.6 years, 90% A and BBB, 4.2 to 4.3 yield. 0.03% expense ratio.

Hwangoutpltr

5'4" and hung like a AAA battery

whateverisok

Look up bond rating scale for investment grade. WSB is AAA - Moody’s, S&P, Fitch

the_Q_spice

Yup, this is a good example of how AAA video game stocks work. They get priced in early, then inevitably tank when the game doesn’t live up to expectations due to crunch and bad optimization. Not an expert, but have some close friends who work for AAA game developers.

ShittyUsernane1222

Lord help us all when AAA international bond ETFs begin trading like wsb regards bank account.

swampassOG

Call AAA

setec404

talk about AAA grade copium

WPrepod

Same as corporate tax reductions. Decreased costs mean increased profits and they're not gonna let that go to waste on reducing costs for the consumer. Specifically games, that shit is priced in and AAA titles will sell for 70/80$.

ShittyUsernane1222

give or take a few weeks, international AAA bond ETFs will be trading like a shitcoin.

Ok_Complaint_3589

Hahahahahhahahhahahahahaha AAA told u so

ShittyUsernane1222

AAA international Bond ETFs will soon trade like shitcoins with the way things are going.

TIC321

Problem is innovation and AI. Most AAA titles are becoming repetitive and redundant with no new innovative ideas.. which is why we usually see remakes, remasters of the old games coming to fruition.

gaflar

> gaming in the future could look more like... Or it could fucking not, because nobody actually wants that and gamers will keep playing what they want instead of buying whatever AAA slop the industry tries to force down their throats. Have you ever actually played a video game? Can you read, my son?

LocodoloDev

After the runtime fee PR disaster there was a lot of noise on social media regarding developers leaving Unity for Godot but from what I could see the vast majority were vocal hobbyists and students who Unity does not make much money off. Unity excels in the mobile gaming market which is over 50% of the gaming industry. The big companies in that space don't make knee jerk reactions. Unreal is the defacto for big budget AAA titles but on the whole is not as suited for mobile games.

WheelerDan

Because this is how the housing market collapsed in 08. they took something with a AAA rating (spacex) and starting saying what if we sold packages of shit (twitter and his robot bullshit) mixed in with the AAA and everyone will buy it. Theres a reason twitter is shit and worth almost nothing. Mixing it with good shit is just a scam. He's trying to hide his losses and pay off his debts.

greygray

My counterpoint: - gaming as a segment is moving downmarket. The juice is not worth the squeeze for AAA titles and they make way more money with mobile games. - apply a moore’s law curve to this tech and it does start to compete pretty strongly with incumbents. - gaming in the future could look more like world AR / seamless than sitting at home with a PC or oculus (imagine solo leveling with a HUD or Pokémon Go). My bull case for unity would be to be acquired by Meta, Google, or Apple and used as part of a platform play. I could see it being more useful to Meta to help build a more robust content library ahead of their broader push into AR glasses.

DaStompa

Its accessibility. You needed a guy like carmack who is an absolute programing psycho to push a AAA title and there's not a ton of them out there in the world, you'd have little groups surrounding wizards outputting the best games and bigger players really couldn't compete. Now its all MBA's pushing addiction and gambling mechanics as hard as they can and the actual game is secondary.

DoTheMario

I agree - any evaporation of discretionary spending probably hits this form of entertainment first. This is not to say that I believe people stop playing games but I do think their consumption habits will change in economic hardship. Free to play games, gaming backlogs, steam deals, etc. allow people to access gaming for very little up front cost. As people tighten their belts I'm sure theyll turn to replaying old games or tapping secondary markets to purchase discounted and used games. AAA should be worried because I don't think it has a very good model if people are not frivolous. Microtransactions, skins/cosmetics, and similar monetization is going to be rough if people are looking at tight budgets. Full price $80 gaming and consoles I can only imagine hit a wall as well.

yourwebg

I have faith in gaming, but any investment in a western AAA developer is a huge risk. 

Acolyte_of_Swole

Betting on the overall market is always safe since society is getting more dystopian and people need an escape/stress release. But the AAA industries are producing some real trash which imo is causing stagnation, especially along with rising prices and predatory monetization practices. In combination with an attitude of "you do not own anything you buy from us" and aggressive DRM, I have a feeling the future of spending will be a lot of indies and emerging AA titles. There will always be those people who just buy madden every year and only play madden and nothing else. I'm not talking about those. For the people who play a lot of different game genres using pc or consoles, AAA has been highly disappointing in the last decade and I think most are moving away from it. Also it bears mentioning that indie games cost less and if people have less money, saving money buying indie games or old games on sales is only natural.

Brick-Throw

Can't wait to have to buy a 10090 RTX to play a game that is nearly as buggy and unpolished as a game released 20 years ago by a AAA company.

Chemical-Narwhal3965

Gaming is not invest in any gaming Company rn. AAA games have not been good or have had allot of pushback from the big companies over the last couple years. And with AI being controversial in games, i dont trust any of the publicly traded companies to get it right. Very volatile rn.

bb1180

I'm in the group that has absolutely zero confidence in western AAA game development. Seems like they're prioritizing everything except their internal talent level and their customers.

GLGarou

Hate to say it as gaming is my biggest pasttime. Video game sector is easily one of the worst sectors right now. They have been losing a ton of investment money over the last few years. Not just AAA, but even more the AA and indie companies.

Honest_Bee_9549

Western AAA companies have worsened a ton over time and are now at an all-time low in reputation. Not a good investment for me

InvisibleEar

I have no faith in the management of AAA developers. I expect more of them to Ubisoft themselves than soar.

SB_90s

That's like saying the rise of Netflix was the best time to be a video rental company, because of the chance to specialise and differentiate. I did point out the likes of CDPR and R* will keep having devs that thrive. And I agree with you that on the other end of the spectrum certain indies will also thrive. But that doesn't negate the fact we're going to see massive layoffs on this sector over the next decade (and it's already been hit hard in recent years as it is) and most developers will use AI more and more in their games. On your persistent world point, as I said this is all contingent on Genie 3 just being the start/proof of concept, with it continuing to mature and eventually start outputting games on par with AA and even AAA games at some point. Everyone and Google understands the importance of persistent and saved worlds to actually compete. I don't see why that won't eventually come. Much like how existing LLM agents can remember and recall previous information that's been input and outputted. To be clear, I don't support any of this especially the idea of layoffs and AI replacing everything. But if we all just take the easy road of ignoring the threat and not choosing to see what this could, and likely will, become, then we'll all just be more unprepared for when it happens.

SB_90s

Game devs are also absolutely cooked, unfortunately. It's clear the suits and bean counters run all the mid to large sized studios these days. They don't respect the devs as it is now, so that'll only get worse as AI games improve and radically cuts the need for a big (human) dev team. Top tier studios like CDPR and R* will survive just fine (TTWO was absolutely a buying opportunity when it dropped 10% on this news) because they truly earn their rep and put out unmatched games. People will keep coming out to pay big for their games even when this AI tech is capable of putting out AAA game. So those studios can keep affording to pay for a big dev team and it'll be their massive moat among the sea of AI game studios. Everyone else is fried eventually tbh. Other big studios like EA and others who have franchises that will likely remain popular (sports, CoD, etc) but aren't really known for quality, care, or uniqueness will also have their dev team gutted for AI and the casuals who eat up those games every year won't care about a drop in quality, etc. I would say the slop studios like EA (if it stayed listed) and Ubisoft could be massive buying opportunities because they can massively cut costs/headcount once this tech is mature, and their sales probably won't change if they can maintain quality. But honestly, knowing those studios, they'll cut way too early and use the tech wrongly first, tanking sales for a bit. Until the tech is actually ready to replace devs, then sales will probably recover and their margins will skyrocket. If you're training to be a gaming dev currently, don't. If you're in the industry, particularly if you're still young, pivot to a different industry now.

Dragon_yum

You need to look where the puck is going no where it is now. Just two years ago it would have been science fiction to see something like this. The gameplay is Roblox isn’t crazy complex and there’s no reason that within a rather reasonable timeframe ai wouldn’t be able to do something semi decent when compared to the quality of Roblox. We aren’t talking replicating CoD or some other AAA title, just some shitty games that are just good enough to get young kids hooked on them.

zaepoo

Hey now, those were AAA grade mortgage backed securities thank you very much.

FishHammer

Video game companies going public is a lot of what's wrong with the current state of "AAA" gaming. Valve still crushes it because their profits stay on Gabe's yacht next to the nacho cheese waterfall/lazy river

thrawnisahero

AAA Rated

qbjc392

Anyone who knows what a game engine does will laugh at you. AA and AAA Game engines are one of the most complicated piece of software to make, and current LLMs still make dumb mistakes on relatively simple tasks. The neural simulators just generate a real-time video feed based on inputs, it's far from being a game. Plus, you lose don't have control over anything like physics, art, rules of the game, etc. It's a cool tech for sure but not a case against game engines.

ficoplati

How is this supposed to speed up release cycles of games? It's literally not a game it's just predicted/generated 2d renders of 3d frames at a staggering costs. The only reason I could ever see this being useful for actual game dev is generation of 3d assets/3d animations. That is already being done today anyways. Maybe some cut scenes that have 0 overlap with actual game assets/worlds could use this. This is not a game or anything close to a game, it cannot be used to speed up game dev because game dev does not work like this. You cannot use this to make a game level faster because it does not produce the code and assets required to make a game level in the first place. This is equivalent to saying that a 3d artistic animation of two particles colliding could be used to speed up CERN physics research. You realize how idiotic that sounds. Even if we somehow assume that in some years the tech advances so much that it can reliably "generate" an actual AAA game scenario with correct physics, lighting etc. and perfect object permanence. The cost would be insane. Every time you sat down to play the "game" it would probably cost you 100dollar+/hr. The only realistic speedups to game dev have already been achieved with 3d asset generation and code generation. This stock reaction is literally just markets being commanded by people that are completely clueless about how gamedev actually works and think that games are just magically made from wizards at the computer typing away what they want to see at the screen.

Kryslor

>no more indie games and more AAA slop! Oh God please no

Funny_Story2759

The whole point is lower barrier to entry to a business that is roughly controlled by select talent. Ai can bring more people into creation using less people which would result in AAA quality games from indie studios ultimately.

Automatic-Unit-8307

Yes, mobile games are garbage, but they make more money than triple AAA titles. People love garbage, so gaming stocks are dead. People buy mobile crap and they will by AI game crap

HorriblyGood

The tech has not been plateauing. I’m not saying the current transformer architecture will take us to AGI, but it’s far from being fully explored and will get us to very good specialized model. There are a lot of research on improving LLMs by reinforcement learning, faster model via masked diffusion LLM, improving reasoning by latent chain of thought. Research papers are being published at an insane rate. Just because you don’t see it in the news doesn’t mean it’s plateauing. It takes time for services like ChatGPT and Gemini time to adopt new advancements because they are training models at large scale and need to test and validate before shipping new models. I know that we are far from being able to generate AAA games like this with AI right now. But I don’t think you understand how long 2 decades is in the AI field. We got to where we are in a little over a decade from almost nothing. AI in 2010 is a joke and now it’s everywhere. The things we have now is unthinkable for anyone who worked in this field back then. And I don’t think anyone can predict what will come in 2 decades. If they say they can, they’re lying. Similarly, people who are so confident in what AI can do in the future is also wrong. No one knows.

CaptainDouchington

Or...it's cause a lot of AAA studios have been churning turds for a while now.

TripTryad

>Very soon you'll be able to completely personally design AAA quality games to your liking using nothing but generative AI. No.... you won't. You will still need actual creatives to use these tools to create those meaningful experiences. This may in some instances however, shorten the development time so you can get 3 Final Fantasy games in a single Generation like we did with the PS1 🤷🏾‍♂️

Raise_A_Thoth

Think of how much time, expertise, and optimization go into AAA gaming titles. AI will not be able to make games that rival good indy or top studio games anytime soon. It can probably make crappy mobile games somewhat soon, but quality comes from art and story and thoughtful design of UI, feel, tone, music, etc. AI can upend the market by continuing enshittification and generating volume, maybe making some studios suffer from the competition of volume, but to the extent that becomes a viable business model, quality of games will suck ass.

FantasticMacaron9341

It cant code alone but saying it sucks at coding is stupid. Same here, you wouldn't be able to generate a game with a prompt any time soon, but imagine a 10 person team could build an AAA like game, crazy

CarlosAlvarados

Man like yeah. People that think we are anywhere close of ai games replacing AAA games are insane lmao

Tristezza

Gaming companies will be fine as you will not be able to "personally design AAA quality games to your liking using nothing but generative AI" for a very, very, very long time.

Rich_Housing971

They actually have a point. They won't be on par, but any time playing AI-made games will be time people don't have for GTA. For each game made with the budget of GTA 6, there's probably tens of thousands of games that can be made with AI. And the studios won't be entirely making games from AI with a single prompt. It will be used to create art assets, 3d models, etc. Think about this like fashion. Someone into fashion will always know which brands are quality and which brands they never heard of. but someone not into fashion or just see fashion as clothes to keep you warm and prevent people from seeing your genitalia will just buy whatever is cheap. They can recognize that Prada is giving them a better product, but they don't care about spending the $500 on a Prada product vs $50 on something they see at Target. A gamer will never buy an AI-made game. But some people who are non-gamers looking for something cheap to do on the weekend will buy the $5 AI-made game instead of the $70+ AAA game made by a studio. It happened for mobile games already. mobile games are known for being lower quality than PC and console games, but most people who are gamers play on mobile.

16semesters

> No matter how great the generative AI become, it would probably be easier, cheaper, less time consuming and less frustrating to buy a game from a professional developer than trying to create an AAA games yourself Some people might DIY through prompts, some may play premade games that are made with AI. But the application of AI will make pretty much all traditional gaming companies lose their moat unless they have some protectable IP.

Bulky_Wind_4356

People are kinda sick of AAA games tho. At least that's what it looks like

holylight17

No matter how great the generative AI become, it would probably be easier, cheaper, less time consuming or frustrating to buy a game from a professional developer than try to create an AAA games yourself.

ihopethisworksfornow

Google genie doesn’t impress me. Sure, it’ll save AAA studios dev time and $$ because they can fire artists now. Your news will be AI slop Your movies will be AI slop Your games will be AI slop The products you consume will be AI slop Everything will become generic garbage and you will pay a monthly subscription for it that goes up in price every month even though the product gets worse.