ADP
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FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
What I'm watching for the week ahead. JOBS NUMBERS WEEK.
Everything I'm watching for the week ahead incl. Some Expectations
I forgot to roll over my 401(k) when I got laid off six months ago.
US stocks rise as disappointing ADP payrolls point to future rate cuts
More minimum wage hikes are coming across U.S. states in 2024, from California to Nebraska, Delaware, Maryland and Hawaii.
Jobs & inflation report will weight on the Markets.
U.S. job growth slowed sharply to 177,000 in August, below expectations
Economy Private sector added 324,000 jobs in July, well above expectations, ADP says
The Crash this Fall is Now a Mathematical Certainty, but First, We Go Up
Analyzing Today’s Economic Data: US Economy Grapples with Trade Deficit Decline and Recession Concerns
EUR/USD: Uncertain Technical Outlook Ahead of US Jobs-Focused Week
[Macro] Will a US jobs data miss cause the stock market to fall or rally?
[Macro] Will a US jobs data miss cause the stock market to fall or rally?
Market Recap - 6/1/23 - Stonks only go up?
With the May ADP release again beating expectations, what do you think of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data?
Likelihood of Bank of New York selling Petrochina H shares that underly delisted ADR shares?
Payrolls rose more than expected making Fed hike more likely - Bloomberg News
Payrolls rose more than expected making Fed hike more likely - Bloomberg News
Sell in May and Go away? Banking Crisis take two, FOMC, calendar of events and VIX 52W low … 4-28-23 SPY/ ES Futures, and VIX Weekly Market
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 10th, 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 10th, 2023
Why Appian ($APPN), Snowflake ($SNOW), and Shopify ($SHOP) all stumbled today
Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, well below expectations, ADP says
Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, well below expectations, ADP says
SSGA is reclassifying a few stocks to different GICS groups
Are the bulls back in control?... 3-3-23 SPY/ ES Futures Weekly Market Analysis
Nomura ~ Massive NFP Beat = Rates Higher for Longer?... (FULL REPORT)
NOMURA Research (FULL REPORT) - Payroll Surprise Supports "Higher for Longer" Thesis...
NOMURA (Full Report) - NFP Beat = Higher for Longer?
Nomura - Payroll Surprise Supports "Higher for Longer" Expectation (Full Report)
Nomura ~ Massive NFP Beat = Rates Higher for Longer?... (FULL REPORT)
Non-agricultural! Will jobs, wages cool further and the markets and the Fed be happy?
Private payroll growth slowed to 106,000 in January as weather hit hiring, ADP says
11M vs 10M Job Openings. ISM Manufact 47.4 vs 48. ISM Prices Paid 44.5 vs 39.5. ADP 106K vs 178K + FOMC Predictions.
Private payroll growth slowed to 106,000 in January as weather hit hiring, ADP says
Apple and Amazon Earnings, a Federal Reserve Decision, January Jobs Data, and More for Investors to Watch This Week
Stocks with bullish signals from US markets
Stocks with bullish signals from US markets
Insider Trading Weekly Update #021: Execs Dump $ADP, $NVCR, $AZO, $DDOG; Largest Trades + Sector and Market Cap Overviews From The Past Week
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 9th, 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 9th, 2023
U.S. stock futures steady as traders eye nonfarm payrolls report
1-5-23 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Daily Market Analysis
ADP jobs report December 2022: Inflation is Out Of Control!
Private payroll growth surged by 235,000 in December, well above estimate, ADP reports
10.46M Job Openings vs 10M. ISM Manufacturing 48.4 vs 48.5. Prices 39.4 vs 42.6. Employment 51.4 vs 48.3.
2-6 Jan. Detailed Economic Calendar for the Coming Week
2-6 Jan. Detailed Economic Calendar for the Coming Week
Expected Moves this Week: SPY, QQQ, Record Put/Call Ratio and Early Assignment.
12-30-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Weekly (and yearly) Market Recap and Analysis
United States ADP Employment Change 127K (forecast: 198)
Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports
Nonfarm payroll tomorrow 8:15 AM, Employment Situation Report from DOl on December 02 8:15 AM
Key Themes in the Market to Watch this Week:
Expected moves this week: SPY on Jobs Number, Salesforce, Snowflake, Crowdstrike and more
$ADP SMA10 & SMA20 Crossover on OceanAlgorithm.com
ADP and ZipRecruiter Data: Hiring is still booming in some industries, but falling in others
ADP Research shows a surge in leisure and hospitality hiring. Does this undercut the idea of a Fed pivot?
Stocks Stage highly regarded Rally Ahead of Fed Meeting
Expected moves this week. SPY, QQQ, AMD, Starbucks, Roku, Draftkings and more
economic news + notable earnings for this upcomming week.
Notable earnings and economic news for this upcoming week.
Expected Moves this week: SPY, QQQ, Google, Amazon and more.
Wall Street Newsletter S02E02 : The perfect date & levels to buy SPX for the "Bear market rally 3"
Mohnish Pabrai bought 5% of TAV Airports(Turkish Company), here's the DD of the business.
In Case You Start Hearing 'Stagflation', Here's A Primer
The Recession No One Will Discuss; As Equity Investors Rush To Exit
Looking for options in anticipation of upcoming bad job report.
Companies added 455,000 jobs in March, slightly more than expected, ADP says
Mentions
Yea the ADP report confirmed the fuck outta that
So JOLTs said we added like 400k job openings or whatever but ADP saying we lost payrolls Who gonna work at the sock factories we’re opening up after all these tariffs 😢
it was ADP, tomorrow morning will matter more
That's ADP, it just means they lost more customers. Jobs number will probably be at around 80-90k. Last month will be adjusted down like crazy though
I'd love to see that ADP paystub
>The smallest firms tended to see more job losses this month than their larger counterparts. In fact, businesses with more than 500 employees saw the biggest payroll growth in the month with an increase of 30,000, per the ADP. So, Amazon and Walmart are okay?!?!?! Oh thank god
What's being priced in. We had +200k job openings on jolts. And then -30k jobs on ADP. What's gonna happen tomorrow?
First negative ADP jobs report in over 2 years, 20%+ tariffs on Vietnam, and Iran is causing more baby mama drama and oil is up 3%+. And we still green. Unbelievable. This is truly one of the bull markets of all time.
Timing the market works because of assymetric impact on performance between large drawdowns and large up days. If you miss 1 month that stocks fall 20% and miss 1 month that stock go up 20%, you will outperform by 4%. There is a high chance this can be liberation day 2.0. Inflation came high, income and expenditure were down, ADP numbers were shit, NFP may come shit aswell… And we are at ath. But you do you lol
ADP report was so bad. And we pump like this? Is there even a modicum of sanity left anywhere?
ADP fraudata be like: bers in lambos! bol r fuk!
Priced in with todays ADP already?
Desperate attempt to show that his administration is making progress. Go watch the ADP report (private sector job creation)., it is horrendous.
Private sector sheds jobs for the first time in 2 years, ADP report shows one day ahead of tomorrow's job report The chief economist from ADP said firms showed "a hesistancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers"
Tomorrow we've got Unemployment rate, Balance of trade, Jobless claims, PMI, and Factory orders. Given today's reaction to ADP numbers, we reach ATHs again to end the week off?
I wouldn't say it's awesome but ADP is noise. We have to see the same thing for more than one month on NFP for it to mean anything at all, with confirmation on initial claims and continuing claims.
ADP is not reliable. March 2023 53,000 even more were lost. Yet we had a booming economy and hockey stick profits in 2023 and 2024.
Worst ADP report in 2 years btw.. after hot PCE.. market literally does not give a fuck. Then one day it will and everyone will ask WHAT HAPPENED. \[Ber copium mask emoji\]
ADP is private. Nonfarm is government and self employed numbers included
True, but ADP tracks real, live data for the month of actual payrolls they executed while the non-farm numbers go off of a survey and then revised months later when the actual numbers are determined.
>ADP Employment (expected): **100,000** >ADP Employment (actual): **-33,000** Market just shrugging this one off, eh?
|| || |||Actual|Expected| |[ADP employment](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/adp-says-economy-loses-jobs-for-the-first-time-since2023-due-to-trade-wars-3507db19?mod=home_ln)|June|\-33,000|100,000| Market just shrugging this one off, eh?
|| || |||Actual|Expected| |[ADP employment](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/adp-says-economy-loses-jobs-for-the-first-time-since2023-due-to-trade-wars-3507db19?mod=home_ln)|June|\-33,000|100,000| Market just shrugging this one off, eh?
|| || |||Actual|Expected| |[ADP employment](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/adp-says-economy-loses-jobs-for-the-first-time-since2023-due-to-trade-wars-3507db19?mod=home_ln)|June|\-33,000|100,000| Market just shrugging this one off, eh?
A reminder after today's -33k ADP jobs report. It's considered a recession when your friends & neighbors receive layoffs. It's a depression when you get laid off. A 2nd reminder. The economy and the stock market are not the same thing. They never have been and never will be. S&P 500 hit a new ATM in October 2007. Less than 52 weeks later we were in the midst of the GFC.
I agree. But BLS statistics are not reliable anymore- that's why the market places heavier weight on ADP now, they're perceived closer to the "source of truth" than ADP is now.
ADP numbers were consistently showing lower job growth well before Trump was in office
ADP numbers have been fake news for the last couple years. They always scare the market, but when the official data comes out. The two numbers aren't even close.
20% on Vietnam? Wow... \-33k ADP when expected was +90? Let the good times roll
Have you considered it's possible you're the 🤡? ADP shed 55,000 jobs in March 2023. Guess what we saw in 2023 and 2024? Roaring nominal growth. Market continued to hockey stick up.
you thought ADP was gonna stop the train lol
ADP uses payroll data. BLS uses surveys and other less reliable things that can and are manipulated as we have seen for 3 straight years. Yet the market seems to only care about the (phony) headline BLS numbers, and not the revisions or ADP prints. Late cycle behaviour is fun
Less concerned about ADP. More concerned about the continued larger downward revisions.
> That's gotta be the worst revision i have seen. Shit is way past 2SD. it's not the same report. that was ADP revising down from their 37k figure, so it's a much lesser reduction. either way, looking to ADP for these numbers is like going to vgchartz for game/console sales figures.
> Did I see correctly that the May jobs report got revised again down to 29,000? It was initially 139,000. it looks to be different reports. the 29k figure looks to be coming from ADP, which is kind of trash. the 139k figure was from BLS (while ADP said may was only claiming 37k)
ADP numbers looking real bad. Pump it
ADP data isn't really as strong or taken as seriously as the gov data
Did I see correctly that the May jobs report got revised again down to 29,000? It was initially 139,000. If this is right, why aren't more people talking about it? This would be a bigger concern than the ADP figure for June.
> f the ADP numbers said there was bigger than expected jobs growth though but they didnt.
ADP was heavily below BLS in 2022-2023 and literally missed so badly that they remade the index
> ADP results are legit no they're not. they only have insight into their own customer base and make extrapolations on that which may or may not be accurate. the last wave of ADP numbers were wrong, time will tell if these ones are too.
Considering that BLS numbers are not reliable anymore, ADP is considered the "best" lol. But yeah I agree with you.
Considering BLS numbers are probably pulled out of thin air at this point, ADP is now the most reliable lol.
I hope people realize that ADP data’s track record of reliable predicting jobs is very poor which is why you never saw it being reported on much before people realized you could get clickbait over it.
ADP results are legit and not able to be faked like the phony ass BLS number we get each month that inevitably get adjusted down from "economy is strong" to "economy is in a recession". JOLTS numbers from yesterday are irrelevant too since the way they calculate job openings is dumb and allows for fake postings and double postings etc. Melt Up will continue in the meantime though until the data is too bad to ignore and something breaks
Exactly. ADP is an expert, but the heroine addict/brainworm addict who sounds like he's gargling rusty fish hooks just told me "We need to stop trusting the experts and do our own research."
Reality is more gray. ADP isn’t exactly a reliable metric, and job posting aren’t either.
ADP is a private payroll company 🥭 calls CEO and asks how he feels about alligator swamp prisons suddenly the fed has a great excuse to cut rates NOW
ADP measures change in payroll no? So there was a net negative change in employees on payroll I.e. job losses
Who even uses ADP, anyway? ✋ 🤚 "ADP? Who the hell are these people?" ✋ 🤚 "They hate America and I'll be looking into them very bigly, very strongly" ✋ 🤚 "We might have to put DOGE on ADP" ✋ 🤚
ADP Employment was projected at +100k and it came in at -33k lmao
You joke but ADP is not a serious metric. Granted BLS reliability is faltering too, but ADP has never been very serious.
Inflation never actually goes down. It just slows down. ADP Jobs basically show that small 🚎 ness is contracting and corporate big business continues to grow. The strain on the economy will be felt disproportionately by the small employer, so that makes sense. However, small employers represent a large part of the US economy. The Big Beautiful Bill narrowly passed the Senate, but I doubt in can pass the House, so that’s a moot point. The national debt is an entirely different issue. Wall Street obviously cares, the tax payers who will be paying that debt care and the proposed BBB represents the largest increase in taxation in history dressed up as tariffs. That’s an issue, but this administration is not going to address it. As usual, debt and cost of living increase but this time with a declining dollar and an isolationist administration. Personally, I never believe we were heading for a recession. I do believe the economy will push through but the markets will have periodic adjustments for the NET loss to the US economy. Small local retail is probably not happening under this administration.
Come on, after all this green, are you telling me we are dropping on the lame ADP report?
This is the way. ADP numbers come in terrible: green. ADP numbers come in gangbusters. Yep, more green.
Bad ADP jobs numbers and 90-day tariff pause ends July 9th
ADP US June Private Employment Falls 33k, Est. +98k Hahahhahahhaahahahahahahaha 🥭 killed the economy in six months
ADP miss, data dump with a short trading day tomorrow before a long weekend and the tariff pause set to expire next week. It’s gonna be red the next two days.
The post came minutes before ADP showed a net loss of jobs in lieu of a gain tens of thousands higher
ADP counts the illegal immigrant jobs and black jobs that 🥭🥭🥭 has cut during the past few months. This administration will release number soon showing white jobs increase by wide margin. Call it is /s
Expected +98k reality -33k ADP private. Worst since March of 2023. Maybe doesn't matter until we nonfarm payroll tomorrow
ADP was “wrong” last month. Lets see what the true numbers are tomorrow
not to forget BLS nonfarm payroll is always revised downward 2 months later to match ADP data
And tomorrow's NFP will somehow come in with 200,000 adds. The worse ADP is, the better government reported NFP is. Somehow.
ADP job numbers were atrocious. Time to load up on calls. New ATH here we come
believe it or not. Calls. The ADP report showing contraction in the labor market will cause Jpow to cut faster and possibly more. Ironically thanks to taco.
WITH THE ADP, Traders increase bets on at least two Fed rate cuts by end-2025
That's just like ADP's opinion, man. I'm sure the skeleton crew at BLS has their finger on the "real" pulse.
Even zerohedge isn't posting his usual doomer stuff on ADP numbers
*We will be nationalizing the FAKE NEWS ADP before the next jobs report. Thank you for your attention to this matter!*
oops sorruy abutt dat, The ADP National Employment Report for June, released on July 2nd, indicated aloss of 33,000 private sector jobs. This is a significant miss compared to economist expectations of a 100,000 job increase. The report also revised May's job growth figure down to just 29,000 jobs added
ADP numbers were trash because people are starting to be replaced by AI
ADP’s correlation to official data has weakened, but think it’s directionally right here. The job market is in shambles compared to the Biden Administration.
After ADP Jobs report, market moons ADP drills
Tlt barely moved on ADP ADP is trash
The ADP National Employment Report for May 2025 indicates a 37,000 increase in private sector jobs. This is a significant slowdown compared to previous months, with the pace of hiring reaching its lowest level since March 2023 oh oh too late jpow will have to cut rate soon lol
ADP negative statistic everyone. ADP negative statistic.
ADP trash, wait until tomorrow's numbers
ADP missed but like 150,000 jobs but yea sure let’s keep doing the tariff thing
US ADP Employment Change Actual -33k (Forecast 98k, Previous 37k)
Futures are mooning in anticipation of useless ADP numbers
ADP report. Institutions waiting to see what to tell the algos to do today. Any dip is buyable.
ADP jobs data this morning, meh
Nikkei spooked by empty 🥭 tariff threads. US quiet before ADP report. This always happens before new reports drop. Won’t worry about a bear trend day until we take out yesterday’s low with volume. We’re in a holiday week to boot so low volume program buying is expected today and tomorrow.
Free money for sure. Especially if ADP comes in hot
Predictions for tomorrows ADP numbers? Perhaps a quick dip then immediately afterwards some mooning?
Key Events This Week: 1. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Tuesday 2. June ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday 3. May JOLTS Job Openings - Tuesday 4. June ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Wednesday 5. June Jobs Report - Thursday 6. US Market Closed, 4th of July - Friday
The ADP employment numbers are going to be so fucking bad lol
ADP is on my watchlist. Never falls too much unless the economy and employment collapse. Down 4 percent today because? Might need to add some shares
Got some ADP today. Figured now is as bad a time as any
Everyone keeps claiming that the only jobs getting hired for are low wage. That's simply false as shown by ADP and BLS stats. Wages are up in both mean and bottom quartile. Finally beating inflation as well. Looking at one person and saying "that's what happened everywhere" is not a good way to gauge the market. Go ahead and bet on a recession though. Just short spy and let me know how that goes. If you're confident, bring some receipts.
Saw something similar in another sub/thread - do you realize that ADP doesn't run the payroll for every single company in the country? While they are certainly a leader in the space, they cover less than 15% of the market. Does it seem reasonable then that 39,000 from a single minority source, could become 139,000 when factoring in statsitics from the other 85%?