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FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
FOMC Week… 1-26-24 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ/ NQ Futures, 10YR Yield, DXY/ US Dollar and Cl/ Oil Futures Weekly Market Analysis
What I'm watching for the week ahead. JOBS NUMBERS WEEK.
Everything I'm watching for the week ahead incl. Some Expectations
I forgot to roll over my 401(k) when I got laid off six months ago.
US stocks rise as disappointing ADP payrolls point to future rate cuts
More minimum wage hikes are coming across U.S. states in 2024, from California to Nebraska, Delaware, Maryland and Hawaii.
Jobs & inflation report will weight on the Markets.
U.S. job growth slowed sharply to 177,000 in August, below expectations
Economy Private sector added 324,000 jobs in July, well above expectations, ADP says
The Crash this Fall is Now a Mathematical Certainty, but First, We Go Up
Analyzing Today’s Economic Data: US Economy Grapples with Trade Deficit Decline and Recession Concerns
EUR/USD: Uncertain Technical Outlook Ahead of US Jobs-Focused Week
[Macro] Will a US jobs data miss cause the stock market to fall or rally?
[Macro] Will a US jobs data miss cause the stock market to fall or rally?
Market Recap - 6/1/23 - Stonks only go up?
With the May ADP release again beating expectations, what do you think of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data?
Likelihood of Bank of New York selling Petrochina H shares that underly delisted ADR shares?
Payrolls rose more than expected making Fed hike more likely - Bloomberg News
Payrolls rose more than expected making Fed hike more likely - Bloomberg News
Sell in May and Go away? Banking Crisis take two, FOMC, calendar of events and VIX 52W low … 4-28-23 SPY/ ES Futures, and VIX Weekly Market
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 10th, 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 10th, 2023
Why Appian ($APPN), Snowflake ($SNOW), and Shopify ($SHOP) all stumbled today
Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, well below expectations, ADP says
Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, well below expectations, ADP says
SSGA is reclassifying a few stocks to different GICS groups
Are the bulls back in control?... 3-3-23 SPY/ ES Futures Weekly Market Analysis
Nomura ~ Massive NFP Beat = Rates Higher for Longer?... (FULL REPORT)
NOMURA Research (FULL REPORT) - Payroll Surprise Supports "Higher for Longer" Thesis...
NOMURA (Full Report) - NFP Beat = Higher for Longer?
Nomura - Payroll Surprise Supports "Higher for Longer" Expectation (Full Report)
Nomura ~ Massive NFP Beat = Rates Higher for Longer?... (FULL REPORT)
Non-agricultural! Will jobs, wages cool further and the markets and the Fed be happy?
Private payroll growth slowed to 106,000 in January as weather hit hiring, ADP says
11M vs 10M Job Openings. ISM Manufact 47.4 vs 48. ISM Prices Paid 44.5 vs 39.5. ADP 106K vs 178K + FOMC Predictions.
Private payroll growth slowed to 106,000 in January as weather hit hiring, ADP says
Apple and Amazon Earnings, a Federal Reserve Decision, January Jobs Data, and More for Investors to Watch This Week
Stocks with bullish signals from US markets
Stocks with bullish signals from US markets
Insider Trading Weekly Update #021: Execs Dump $ADP, $NVCR, $AZO, $DDOG; Largest Trades + Sector and Market Cap Overviews From The Past Week
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 9th, 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 9th, 2023
U.S. stock futures steady as traders eye nonfarm payrolls report
1-5-23 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Daily Market Analysis
ADP jobs report December 2022: Inflation is Out Of Control!
Private payroll growth surged by 235,000 in December, well above estimate, ADP reports
10.46M Job Openings vs 10M. ISM Manufacturing 48.4 vs 48.5. Prices 39.4 vs 42.6. Employment 51.4 vs 48.3.
2-6 Jan. Detailed Economic Calendar for the Coming Week
2-6 Jan. Detailed Economic Calendar for the Coming Week
Expected Moves this Week: SPY, QQQ, Record Put/Call Ratio and Early Assignment.
12-30-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Weekly (and yearly) Market Recap and Analysis
United States ADP Employment Change 127K (forecast: 198)
Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports
Nonfarm payroll tomorrow 8:15 AM, Employment Situation Report from DOl on December 02 8:15 AM
Key Themes in the Market to Watch this Week:
Expected moves this week: SPY on Jobs Number, Salesforce, Snowflake, Crowdstrike and more
$ADP SMA10 & SMA20 Crossover on OceanAlgorithm.com
ADP and ZipRecruiter Data: Hiring is still booming in some industries, but falling in others
ADP Research shows a surge in leisure and hospitality hiring. Does this undercut the idea of a Fed pivot?
Stocks Stage highly regarded Rally Ahead of Fed Meeting
Expected moves this week. SPY, QQQ, AMD, Starbucks, Roku, Draftkings and more
economic news + notable earnings for this upcomming week.
Notable earnings and economic news for this upcoming week.
Expected Moves this week: SPY, QQQ, Google, Amazon and more.
Wall Street Newsletter S02E02 : The perfect date & levels to buy SPX for the "Bear market rally 3"
Mohnish Pabrai bought 5% of TAV Airports(Turkish Company), here's the DD of the business.
In Case You Start Hearing 'Stagflation', Here's A Primer
The Recession No One Will Discuss; As Equity Investors Rush To Exit
Looking for options in anticipation of upcoming bad job report.
Companies added 455,000 jobs in March, slightly more than expected, ADP says
Mentions
ADP NonFarm Payrolls Actual: 62k Estimated: 114k Prior: 155k Basically just a sign of a big economic slowdown, Q2 gonna be much worse
Well, as it turns out we actually did have negative growth for the first quarter. And ADP reported private hiring for April of 62,000, 120,000 was predicted.
\*Today\* we had a negative GDP report, and ADP showed 62k private sector jobs created, down from 147k in March. I'm not sure how much faster you expected things to drop - outside of COVID, this is one of the fastest drops in economic conditions we've ever had. I get that 3 weeks seems like an eternity online, but this is objectively a really fast deterioration.
- SPY notches 7th straight win - Markets shrug off GDP and ADP data - CORE PCE data minimizes stagflation for now
My comment from yesterday: >Job openings report this morning was one of the first job/employment related indicators to indicate a potential downturn in that sphere. Curious to see if any other releases in next few weeks show anything similar. Well, ADP figures came in WELL below estimates. Let’s see jobless claims tomorrow and unemployment on Friday.
The drop isn't as steep as I would've expected after a negative Q1 and poor ADP job numbers
You know it’s bad when r/conservative deletes all of these posts 😭. ADP report today suggest well most likely receive another quarter of -GDP, so officially a recession.
Im expecting a massacre after the ADP report today
Large retailers such as Amazon and Costco have instant data to consumption and price increases. ADP has relatively quick data to new hires and fires. Get the notion on waiting to digest but some of this should be available for digestion quicker.
The morons over on the Con sub are spinning this as “good news” because of the cutting of Government spending. Meanwhile ADP jobs #s were bad, inflation is up, and consumer spending is down. Completely delusional
So in summary on the data front: -Abysmal ADP employment numbers. Companies have just completely stopped hiring. -Shrinking economy, but mostly due to threat of tariffs jacking up imports to stock inventories before they take effect. Q2 will be the true test. -Core PCE cool/flat - expected because effects of tariffs on prices won't be seen until producers work through those increased inventories and have to either start paying tariffs or find (more expensive) domestic alternatives. Big picture: markets rightfully freaked out at slowing economy metrics, then saw the cool PCE has a rescue boat: "JPow will save us with low rates!" Only JPow isn't stupid. He knows that tariff price effects come later. Help is not coming as fast as they think it will - if it comes at all.
ADP Employment Change APR Actual 62K Forecast - 110K It's almost like businesses stopped hiring because they were unsure of the economic situation. It will balance out so long as we stay the course on the tariff's because it implies certainty right? RIGHT? 5d chess
ADP has been wrong 3/3 prior months this year, don't trust that number.
Healthy growth! || || |[ADP Employment Change](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/adp-employment-change) APR|[62K](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/adp-employment-change)|147K ®|[115K](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/adp-employment-change)|[110K](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/adp-employment-change)|
The ugly ADP payroll data certainly does seem like confirmation of an ugly situation underway. Only so much longer Wall Street can ignore bar data.
ADP and GDP. Soon to come for bols anoos later today, PCE
*"I've got the best ADP Employment Change numbers, better than ever before. Those numbers are so beautiful, everyone is saying that..."*
And ADP is supposed to be good 'cause private jobs sector revival. Are we winning yet.
That just might be the worst mix of results since 2020 PCE bad GDP bad ADP jobs bad Man I'm feeling liberated
Bear porn this morning. Negative GDP. Huge ADP miss. And CPI coming in hot.
Here's the kicker... people are going to argue all day that front running tariffs had a big impact (it did) and that consumption was fine (but think about why)... the kicker is that Q2 will now have less impact from tariffs but still some due to 90 day extension, AND it will have weaker demand thanks to companies now pausing a lot of projects/expansion until they have more clarity on tariffs. We get an upside surprise to unemployment on Friday, and we'll have fireworks. ADP number today was also a HUGE miss... if nonfarm confirms the same, then it's game over.
Play-by-play announcer: "Bulls QB, 2nd down and 25, under center after being sacked by ADP report on the last play...here's the snap, back to pass --" Color announcer: "Oh, no" Play-by-play announcer: "Another sack! Blew right past expected number, GDP with the strip-sack! Ball is loose!"
Might just be that circuit breaker day that’s been talked about… ADP Private Payrolls 62K, Exp. 115K, Last 147K GDP in 2 mins..
ADP jobs report came out bad
ADP Jobs Report: - Private payrolls rose by 62,000 - Down from March's 147,000 - Way below DoW Jones estimate of 120,000
ADP is ... i mean -44% employment .. i mean .. its over? goodbye USA? \*single tear drops down my cheek as eagles screech above\*
Bulls QB just got de-cleated with sack/fumbled ball by ADP report
US ADP just came in: - Actual 62K - Forecasted for 114k. - Previous Month was 147k. Fucking Brutal.
ADP employment: Added 62K jobs vs median forecase of 120K for April
ADP numbers 62,000 vs EST. +115K
ADP employment is bad. if gdp comes bad as well,we having circuit breaker today. lol
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in 50% lower than forecasted
ADP employment came in 62,000 vs. Forecast 120,000. 45% decrease from forecast. Holy bad.
US ADP Nonfarm is 62k below expected of 114k bullish 
If the GDP and ADP payrolls are bad enough maybe we'll see all-time highs soon We need a real recession to get SPY to 10,000
ADP is only for bigger businesses tho right? Those that can afford to pay ADP's services. so SME, agriculatural workers, part time gig guys etc, wont be show in this data ye?
ADP Employment Report @8:15est GDP report @8:30est Consumer Spending @10est PCE @10est One or two of these reports gonna surely send the market to downspiral
10 mins till bad ADP, 25 minutes till bad GDP. All in calls, this shit gonna fly today 
ADP employment numbers 120,000 vs. Estimated 155,000
when does the ADP Jobs report release?
ADP/ CAT for premarket health of the economy vibe check, then AH MSFT/META for AI/futuretech/hype going forward? kinda a good day? with a sprinkle of GDP data in the middle to really Panican us, or go into mass hysteria. Good day to have my coke (coca cola) with me.
Reportcalypses Tomorrow is not for the weak. Here’s the schedule, you beautiful degenerates: MACRO HELLFIRE: • 8:15am – ADP Employment (Apr): Payrolls report. Will the job market print gains or just vibes and DoorDash gigs? • 8:30am – GDP Q1 (Prelim): If this is bad, start practicing your “Welcome to McDonald’s” intro. • 9:45am – Chicago PMI: Industrial strength or just Illinois-shaped L? • 10:00am – Core PCE (MoM/YoY): Fed’s fav inflation stat. If this comes in hot, JPow might ghost rate cuts harder than your last situationship. • 10:30am – Crude Oil Inventories: Oil barons or bicycle renaissance — we’ll see. ⸻ CORPORATE THUNDERDOME: • MSFT, GOOGL, META: The AI Holy Trinity reports. If one misses, the Nasdaq cries. • AMD: Big chip energy. Will Lisa Su cook, or are we getting microwave earnings? • BA (Boeing): Will the jets fly or will QA sabotage another earnings call? • V (Visa): If consumer debt is up, Visa’s winning. If it’s down, the world probably ended. • SNAP: Still trying to monetize selfies and filters in 2025. Bless their delusion. • SPOT: Can Joe Rogan carry this thing harder than your friend carried you in ranked? The market tomorrow is a live grenade. You either catch tendies or take a tax-loss harvest you’ll be explaining for years.
ADP earnings gonna be interesting. I don’t think they disclose how much of their revenue is federal/state employees..
Smci earnings and fear of ADP/PCE news tomorrow.
ADP earnings tomorrow, any predictions? Could we see any potential economic outlook news? Seems like revenue from employment services has consistently gone up per last Q earnings. Not far from ATH's of $321.13 with the stock currently at $295.77 and seems to be trending upwards long-term. P/E isn't exactly low at 30.39 though.
Well tomorrow’s ADP report may help shine a light on that.
tomorrow: "Gross Domestic Product 1st Release" and "ADP National Employment Report" might be interesting
Asked in another thread but ADP calls? Or am I missing something?
Have to be calls on ADP right? They still haven't gapped up from liberation day and shouldn't be harmed too much with recent goings on, or am I missing something?
The first thing the orange man and his dominions did was fire all the independent regulators and those having government oversight powers. He then put in his own cronnies and 'yes' men/women followers... We've been seeing unexpectedly favorable government released economic data like the monthly unemployment, CPI and PPI data, etc helping to reverse markets. It only takes a half wit to realize that manipulation is what's going on... in short, NO - the Economy is not doing well, especially when we basically have a trade embargo with China where all our supply chain flows through... Economic data published by independent third parties like Consumer Confidence and other metrics (value of dollar, recession forecast, ADP jobs etc) paint a dire 😳 economic outlook..
SAP smashed earnings maybe ADP does the same?
Posted on last thread but here ya go nerds. Next week: Monday: nothing Tuesday: US trade balance in goods/adv retail inventories/consumer confidence/job openings Wednesday: ADP Employment/GDP/PCE/core PCE/pending home sales Thursday: Initial jobless claims/ US Manufacturing PMI/Construction spending/Auto sales Friday: Nonfarm payrolls/ unemployment rate/ wages/factory orders
next week: Monday: nothing Tuesday: US trade balance in goods/adv retail inventories/consumer confidence/job openings Wednesday: ADP Employment/GDP/PCE/core PCE/pending home sales Thursday: Initial jobless claims/ US Manufacturing PMI/Construction spending/Auto sales Friday: Nonfarm payrolls/ unemployment rate/ wages/factory orders Hold onto your beans ladies and germs. 
I recently paid full price at Neiman Marcus for Bvlgari Le Gemme Gyan even though I could have a little over $100 less via a discounter. I got great service from a perfume counter manager who I've known for a while. I walked out with like 30+ mls of samples of some Tom Ford, Hermes, and ADP fragrances in was interested in. A couple weeks later she sent me an invite to Creed's private Eladaria launch event and is sending a sample via mail. So there can be good reasons to build a relationship with someone at a high-end retailer rather than simply finding and paying the absolute lowest available discounted price. If you just walk in, pay full price, and walk out, you're doing it wrong. https://i.imgur.com/Bt7M0lH.jpeg
Next Wednesday is ADP/challenger/employment, PCE and GDP data, if there is a day to gamble that would be it.
Have they since pre-covid market? This is non-news and the ADP report releases this sentiment early anyway
It will be interesting to keep an eye on ADP's employment reports and see how they differ from BLS.
8471 Automatic data processing (ADP) machines (e.g., computers, servers) and units thereof. 8473.30 Parts and accessories for ADP machines (e.g., computer parts, motherboards, etc.). 8486 Machines and apparatus used for manufacturing semiconductor devices or electronic integrated circuits (e.g., photolithography machines). 8517.13.00 Smartphones. 8517.62.00 Machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images, or other data, including modems, routers, and networking equipment. 8523.51.00 Solid-state non-volatile storage devices (e.g., USB flash drives, SSDs). 8524 Media used for recording sound or other phenomena, whether or not recorded (older category, includes discs, tapes, etc.—less common today). 8528.52.00 Monitors (specifically those with video signal input via connectors like HDMI, DVI, etc.), likely used for computers. 8541.10.00 Diodes, other than light-emitting diodes (LEDs). 8541.21.00 Transistors, with a dissipation rate <1W. 8541.29.00 Other transistors not elsewhere specified. 8541.30.00 Thyristors, diacs and triacs (semiconductor switching devices). 8541.49.10 through 8541.49.95 Light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and photovoltaic devices (solar cells), with the number varying by function and integration. 8541.51.00 Gallium arsenide LEDs (used in high-efficiency optical devices). 8541.59.00 Other semiconductor light-emitting devices. 8541.90.00 Parts of diodes, transistors, and similar semiconductor devices. 8542 Electronic integrated circuits and microassemblies, including microprocessors, controllers, and memory chips.
The following Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTSUS) codes are exempt from the new reciprocal tariffs effective April 5, 2025: 8471 – Automatic data processing machines (e.g., computers) 8473.30 – Parts and accessories for ADP machines (e.g., computer parts) 8486 – Machines and apparatus for manufacturing semiconductors 8517.13.00 – Smartphones 8517.62.00 – Base stations (telecom equipment) 8523.51.00 – Solid-state non-volatile storage devices (e.g., flash drives, SSDs) 8524 – Media for reproducing phenomena (e.g., disks, tapes) 8528.52.00 – Monitors, projectors, not incorporating a television receiver 8541.10.00 – Diodes 8541.21.00 – Transistors, ≤ 1 watt 8541.29.00 – Transistors, > 1 watt 8541.30.00 – Thyristors, diacs, triacs 8541.49.10 / .70 / .80 / .95 – Photosensitive semiconductor devices 8541.51.00 / 8541.59.00 – Solar cells/modules 8541.90.00 – Parts of items in 8541 8542 – Integrated circuits SOURCE = https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/3db9e55
I don’t know about incredible, but the crazy son of a bitch did it. I mean none of the indicators made sense, the 10/2 inversion was there, the job market laughed at at 75-basis point increase, ADP thought if the economy created 1 job it created 55,000, it took them getting mortgage rates over 6 to cool the housing market(but it’s still got a few hotspots).
Chat GPT spit this after the command "Reformat this so it is readable on Reddit" Here’s a reformatted version for Reddit: Major Economic Data Releases: Week of April 1 Apr 1 (Tue): ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, JOLTS Apr 2 (Wed): ADP Employment, Factory Orders Apr 3 (Thu): Trade Balance, ISM Services Apr 4 (Fri): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate Week of April 8 Apr 9 (Wed): FOMC Minutes Apr 10 (Thu): CPI Apr 11 (Fri): PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (prelim) Week of April 15 Apr 15 (Tue): Empire State Mfg, Import/Export Prices Apr 16 (Wed): Retail Sales, Industrial Production Apr 17 (Thu): Housing Starts, Philly Fed Week of April 22 Apr 22 (Tue): Existing Home Sales Apr 23 (Wed): New Home Sales Apr 24 (Thu): Durable Goods Apr 25 (Fri): Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) Week of April 29 Apr 29 (Tue): Trade in Goods, Consumer Confidence Apr 30 (Wed): GDP (1st estimate), ADP Jobs, ECI, Pending Home Sales Earnings to Watch: Week of April 7 Mon: Levi Strauss Tue: Cal-Maine Foods, RPM Wed: Constellation Brands, Delta Air Lines Thu: CarMax Fri: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock
Well that’s what AI was made for 🙂 Certainly, here’s a schedule of key economic data releases and major earnings reports for April 2025. Please note that all times are in Eastern Time (ET), and dates are subject to change. For the most accurate and updated information, it’s advisable to consult official sources or financial news outlets. Key Economic Data Releases: • April 1, 2025 (Tuesday): • 10:00 AM: Construction Spending  • 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index • 10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) • April 2, 2025 (Wednesday): • 8:15 AM: ADP National Employment Report  • 10:00 AM: Factory Orders  • April 3, 2025 (Thursday): • 8:30 AM: International Trade Balance • 10:00 AM: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index • April 4, 2025 (Friday): • 8:30 AM: Employment Situation Report (Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate) • April 9, 2025 (Wednesday): • 2:00 PM: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes • April 10, 2025 (Thursday): • 8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index (CPI) • April 11, 2025 (Friday): • 8:30 AM: Producer Price Index (PPI) • 10:00 AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)  • April 15, 2025 (Tuesday): • 8:30 AM: Empire State Manufacturing Survey  • 8:30 AM: Import and Export Prices  • April 16, 2025 (Wednesday): • 8:30 AM: Retail Sales  • 9:15 AM: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization  • April 17, 2025 (Thursday): • 8:30 AM: Housing Starts and Building Permits • 8:30 AM: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey • April 22, 2025 (Tuesday): • 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales • April 23, 2025 (Wednesday): • 10:00 AM: New Home Sales • April 24, 2025 (Thursday): • 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders • April 25, 2025 (Friday): • 10:00 AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Final) • April 29, 2025 (Tuesday): • 8:30 AM: Advance International Trade in Goods • 10:00 AM: Consumer Confidence Index • April 30, 2025 (Wednesday): • 8:15 AM: ADP National Employment Report • 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – First Estimate • 8:30 AM: Employment Cost Index • 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index Major Earnings Releases: • Week of April 7, 2025: • Levi Strauss (Monday) • Cal-Maine Foods (Tuesday) • RPM International (Tuesday) • Constellation Brands (Wednesday) • Delta Air Lines (Wednesday)  • CarMax (Thursday)  • JPMorgan Chase (Friday)  • Wells Fargo (Friday)  • BlackRock (Friday)  Please be aware that geopolitical events, such as the implementation of new tariffs by the U.S. and China scheduled for April 9 and 10, respectively, may significantly influence market dynamics during this period.
ADP releases private company payrolls (fairly accurate and free from Donald’s direct reach) and they state 155,000 private sector jobs added in March. Given that government sector shed around 100 k jobs, that means we probably only gained 55k jobs in March! Donald is a corrupt crook who loves distorting reality to match his boasts, so no one should be trusting that BLS number! 🤣😂🤷♂️
Do government jobs use ADP? or their own payroll system?
Job number will be good. ADP beat expectations
Yesterday’s ADP employment figure coming in above estimates.
Sure. I honestly doubt it though. The ADP jobs number was 150k vs 120k expected so I’m thinking the Friday numbers won’t be bad. We have to appreciate nobody has any idea how many government jobs were lost, just like we don’t know how many people were deported. So given that it’s basically impossible to be bullish here without clarity..that’s why I’ve been adding. Ultimately I have no confidence that Trump and his traveling circus will stay the course on tariffs raising 700 billion a year ..LOL..they’ll walk the tariffs back and declare victory
good ADP numbers doesn´t matter at all today?
Today's Economic Calendar 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (Previous 6.71% Actual 6.7%) 08:15 ADP Jobs Report (Forecast 105k Actual 155k) 10:00 Factory Orders MoM (Forecast 0.5%) 10:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change (Forecast -2m) 10:30 EIA Petroleum Stock Change (Forecast -1.9m) 16:00 The President participates in the Make America Wealthy Again event 16:00 Reciprocal Tariff Plan Announcement 16:30 Fed Kugler Speech Ten-year Treasury Yield -4bps 4.13% Two-year Treasury Yield -2bps 3.86% Futures; Dow -0.7%. S&P -0.88%. Nasdaq -1.12%. VIX +3.63% Crude -0.67% $70.57. Nat Gas +1.48% $4.05 Gold +0.3% $3,123. Silver +0.31% $33.80 BTC -0.29% $85,025. ETH -2.21% $1,871/. SOL +0.08% $126.87
Nobody gives a fuck about ADP
Good ADP jobs numbers further tanked premarket. Its like any good news will 🥭 more ammo to dial up tariffs
ADP jobs data is kind of ass tbh
ADP massive beat lol. Uuummm recession cancelled it appears for another 6 months 
US ADP Employment Change Actual 155k (Forecast 120k, Previous 77k, Revised 84k)
March ADP payrolls beat estimates. 155k v. 120k.
ADP Employment Change in 12 mins
Wed Apr 2, 2025 – Key Events Macro Data: 8:15 AM ET – ADP Jobs Report (Mar) → private sector hiring 10:00 AM ET – Factory Orders (Feb) → mfg sector demand Tariffs: 4:00 PM ET – Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement → could impact multiple sectors + market volatility Fed Speak: 4:30 PM ET – Fed Gov. Kugler speaks → watch for policy hints Earnings Today: ANGO – AngioDynamics (med devices) BB – BlackBerry (cybersecurity) FC – Franklin Covey (consulting) RGP – Resources Connection (staffing) RH – RH (luxury retail) CGNT – Cognyte (security software)
Oh boy ADP employment and tariffs tomorrow, are we winning yet?
Wednesday Tariffs and ADP National Employment Report
I don’t know what special about bill ackman, to this day i these stupid things he did: 1) He went on cnbc crying about the market while having a short position during covid, he made a lot of money, but this is disgusting from an ethical pov. 2) he made a whole fuss about investing in netflix, how its a good business and a long term hold , he sold out of it a month later , got scared of a 15% pullback. 3) Herbalife short was atrocious, too much to explain. 4) He targeted college students for their opinion regarding gaza and the middle east, threatened them of blacklisting in wallstreet and legal action. 5) ADP fight , that was stupid and too long to explain. 6) finally, he lost 4 billion over 2 years with Valeant investment. For these reasons ,this man character, knowledge and actions, are not worthy of being followed or even talked about.
Week Ahead Watch Mon: Japan/China data dump. Earnings from $PVH Tue: ‘Liberation Day’ tariff watch, JOLTS Wed: ADP payrolls, factory orders. $RH Thu: PMIs, Fed speakers. $CAG $LW $AYI Fri: Non-farm payrolls
So there are signs of the labor market slowing down or underperforming. The jobs numbers were lower than anticipated despite the anticipated number already being revised down. The ADP hire numbers for February were the worst February since 2009 and the worst month since June or July 2020
For all those who don't have options to cover their positions, y'all better thank whoever fudged the job report yesterday. ADP usually correlates 98%, if the real numbers were released it would have caused a crash 100%. It's crazy how obvious the major players knew the numbers would be fudged as there wasn't a dip after the ADP numbers came out. The tariffs aren't going to materialize in the increased job numbers needed to combat the fudged numbers. Buckle up for the motherload of all adjustments whenever it's clear they can't keep up the charade.
The jobs report today was very obviously fabricated (The ADP numbers usually correlate 98%). They probably did the math to right above what would trigger the common metrics to trigger a crash. Probably still wasn't enough and the bean heads told Trump if he didn't delay tariffs they couldn't fudge the report enough. Keep an eye out for the motherload of all adjustments.
Be lucky he fired the independent groups that did the backup analysis of the numbers for todays job report. (Also schetchy stuff with DOGE employees showing up as department of labor employees with unknown responsibilities. More tin foil theories at this point though) ADP probably has the right numbers and if jobs report reflected reality there would have certainly been a crash.(Historically there is a 98% correlation). Job report has government jobs but that's 100% inflated as all the federal layoffs that have happened and scheduled happened after the cutoff for the jobs report. Things aren't going to get better, and they can only fudge the numbers for so long, get ready for historically high adjustment. The play is to pray that tarrifs increase internal job growth enough to offset the adjustment news. (It won't)
How was missing expectations that were already revised way lower due to ADP results earlier in the week, good? They were bad numbers. If you look at the pre revision numbers they are quite terrible.
You bulls are idiots. The 159k estimate was a lower revision after the ADP results. So just meeting expectations would have been confirmation of a total dogshit situation. Missing was cataclysmic
Well.. here is the Charles Schwab take.. I personally think they are spot on. U.S. equities have experienced significant weakening over the past two weeks, driven by fears over President Trump’s tariffs and their potential impact on economic growth. The S&P 500 (SPX) has nearly erased all its post-election gains, marking a stark reversal of the U.S.’s multiyear dominance in global equities. Meanwhile, Europe’s shift toward fiscal stimulus has attracted foreign investors, particularly in major economies like Germany. The weakening U.S. dollar has also provided a tailwind for U.S. investors in foreign markets. Economic data has further fueled concerns, with manufacturers reporting a steep decline in orders in February and hiring slowing sharply. The ADP Employment Report revealed that U.S. companies added only 77,000 jobs in February, far below expectations and January’s figures. Policy uncertainty, slowing consumer spending, and trade tensions have contributed to this slowdown, with economists predicting modest job growth and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.0%. The bond market has also reflected dimmer growth expectations for the U.S., with the ten-year Treasury yield falling nearly 70 basis points from its January peak. Fed Funds futures now indicate a 50% chance of a rate cut by May, with year-end projections suggesting up to 1% in rate cuts. However, the Federal Reserve is likely to wait for more concrete evidence of economic weakness before acting. The bearish sentiment is further fueled by concerns over a potential bubble burst in the artificial intelligence sector, policy uncertainty, and a sharp downgrade in 1Q GDP estimates. Personal consumption, which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, has stalled, signaling a potential unfolding recession and negative impacts on corporate earnings. Despite the volatility and negative headlines, the market has so far weathered the trade war. However, with sentiment extremely bearish and the market oversold, rallies are likely to be short-lived, and volatility is expected to persist throughout the year. While the Fed may hold off on immediate rate cuts, the combination of weak economic data, trade tensions, and slowing growth suggests the U.S. economy may be at a significant inflection point. Investors, who entered 2025 optimistic about tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks, now face a more uncertain and challenging environment.
Well.. here is the Charles Schwab take.. I personally think they are spot on. || || |U.S. equities have experienced significant weakening over the past two weeks, driven by fears over President Trump’s tariffs and their potential impact on economic growth. The S&P 500 (SPX) has nearly erased all its post-election gains, marking a stark reversal of the U.S.’s multiyear dominance in global equities. Meanwhile, Europe’s shift toward fiscal stimulus has attracted foreign investors, particularly in major economies like Germany. The weakening U.S. dollar has also provided a tailwind for U.S. investors in foreign markets.| |Economic data has further fueled concerns, with manufacturers reporting a steep decline in orders in February and hiring slowing sharply. The ADP Employment Report revealed that U.S. companies added only 77,000 jobs in February, far below expectations and January’s figures. Policy uncertainty, slowing consumer spending, and trade tensions have contributed to this slowdown, with economists predicting modest job growth and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.0%.| |The bond market has also reflected dimmer growth expectations for the U.S., with the ten-year Treasury yield falling nearly 70 basis points from its January peak. Fed Funds futures now indicate a 50% chance of a rate cut by May, with year-end projections suggesting up to 1% in rate cuts. However, the Federal Reserve is likely to wait for more concrete evidence of economic weakness before acting.| |The bearish sentiment is further fueled by concerns over a potential bubble burst in the artificial intelligence sector, policy uncertainty, and a sharp downgrade in 1Q GDP estimates. Personal consumption, which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, has stalled, signaling a potential unfolding recession and negative impacts on corporate earnings.| |Despite the volatility and negative headlines, the market has so far weathered the trade war. However, with sentiment extremely bearish and the market oversold, rallies are likely to be short-lived, and volatility is expected to persist throughout the year. While the Fed may hold off on immediate rate cuts, the combination of weak economic data, trade tensions, and slowing growth suggests the U.S. economy may be at a significant inflection point. Investors, who entered 2025 optimistic about tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks, now face a more uncertain and challenging environment.|
What does ADP know?? Obviously, fake globalist news.
Welp, ADP ended up useless as usual. Jobs report came in at 151k jobs (+140k private, +11k govt) way above ADP's 77k for private for Feb.
BTC is down, bond yields are down, ADP missed on Wednesday…so it’s gonna be a green day just to wreck my 1DTEs
Well I assume it’s priced in if it hits the estimate right? If it comes in like half of what the estimate is (Like ADP) it could be another sell off. It feels like this is the first canary in the coal mine moment. If it beats expectations we might be ok but if it’s bad news it’s just MORE bad news to the pile and then we will have to see if it’s a blip or are layoffs here to stay. Then we’ll have to see those GDP numbers. It’s got the look and feel of a bear market though.