ADP

throwaway9gk0k4k569

Yo the ADP report says your job is gone

TiredElephant_c

It’s actually fuckin’ wildddd that the ADP jobs report just said we lost 32 thousand jobs in September when the expected change was to add 52 k and we stilll ripped higher. That’s nuts like just appreciate how wild that is

Boys4Ever

Don’t forget the defeatist ADP jobs report. Market didn’t even blink. Haven’t checked the bond market but that should have reflect distress. If it didn’t. I quit trying to makes sense and just accept my own defeat

psnanda

Pretty much. Rate cuts are all but sealed now because of ADP numbers and Powell saying that the labor side of the equation needs more support. We are back to sub 4% rates bby!!!

FnAardvark

The market crares amout fiscal and monetary policy way more than this bullshit shut down. Poor jobs report from ADP means rates are going to drop, which is bullish for the market.

UndergroundHQ6

My theory: the ADP report/revisions. Gov shutting down means no NFP this Friday, which elevated ADPs importance. And it showed, again, that jobs are in trouble. Which = more reason for fed to be dovish = market rally

seifer__420

ADP showed job losses in September. No nonfarm payroll number on Friday because of the shutdown, so that is the best we get at least this week. Bad jobs number means more Fed cuts.

Putrid_Pollution3455

On top of HORRIBLE ADP report....good thing all reports are canceled until things are up again X\_X I guess maybe the only thing that matters is company earnings? I'm not really sure what even matters at this point lol

I-IV-I64-V-I

We did get some jobs data today, it was -33k jobs with a revision of the last months saying we didn't get as many jobs . U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/adp-nonfarm-employment-change-1

JayRoo83

So all jokes aside, I assume this is because the markets are 100% convinced we're getting a rate cut in October off of ADP data

upvotechemistry

I think this is a revision to the ADP numbers, not BLS. We wont get BLS data with the government shutdown, imo

mislysbb

Completely shit ADP report means another cut is almost guaranteed this month

LeBhikariLe

after the ADP numbers, DT gave SPY CEO a call and fixed the glitch

enc-nyc

Stocks hit ATH as government enters shutdown and ADP reports jobs decline <- It's literally the topic of one article here, since when they hired clowns to write article topics? ... oh, hold on, it's actually true!

CardiologistEqual336

Jobs reports by ADP not bad, so more rate cut fueled hope

Valkorion335786

Thank you ADP for the negative job number 🤣

VariationAgreeable29

Soft ADP payroll numbers? Feeling that JPow needs to drop faster?

goofy-boots

shutdown doesnt mean dick, its the ADP report that should have had an impact

Smurf_Crime_Scene

September ADP job report, expected a gain +51,000, but it's a loss, MINUS 32,000.

LeBhikariLe

and you thought ADP report mattered... it did, because it means bigger rate cuts!

Altruistic_Court5981

When I saw the bad ADP employment numbers I just knew the market was going for an ATH on a crashing economy 🤡

darahs

I see the ADP jobs numbers made a double top... so its gonna tank now? /s

I-IV-I64-V-I

Jobs are down -33k Market go up U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/adp-nonfarm-employment-change-1

MalikTheHalfBee

Reminder to take ADP data with a very large grain of salt even if it supports you’re preferred narrative as it’s historical record of being indicative of the overall job economy is pretty weak 

theperezident94

Been staying the hell out of the way of this irrational market, but today is especially shocking. Back to back negative ADP jobs reports and a government shutdown should be major risk off. I guess the party keeps roaring until AI CapEx stops.

Medical-Analysis-554

Some time in the next 3-6 months ADP will come under fire from The Regime and will be sued for providing independent data that disagrees with their made-up-bullshit

TACO_Orange_3098

So from the ADP Report itself : # SMALL ( Less than 50 people ) ---- LOST 40,000 Jobs # MID-SIZE ( 50 to 499 people ) ---- LOST 20,000 Jobs # LARGE ( Greater than 499 people ) ---- GAINED 33,000 Jobs

Maxfunky

I can't think of any reason why they would? Besides, this report is specifically "private sector" jobs. So even though some local governments use ADP, they're not included either.

PristineDiscount3208

Not according to the ADP report

chatrep

I never understood ADP revisions. Don’t they just look at their actual data? It’s not a survey.

fenriswulfwsb

ADP employment cones in awful. Government shitting down. SPY -.15%. Clown market.

isolated-cat

Yahoo - US stocks pulled back on Wednesday after the US government entered its first shutdown in seven years, putting hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in output at risk. Meanwhile, key ADP jobs data showed private payrolls declined in September, widely missing estimates. bruh Nasdaq is literally pumping right now. is Yahoo finance retarded?

cheesemonk66

No ADP gets this info by being one of the largest payroll processors in the US

behindlife

The feds don't provide information to ADP?

Cultural_Plankton661

That ADP report though....

Maxfunky

The federal government does not use ADP for payroll...

Nonya5

Wait until an angry tweet goes out about ADP and then they'll revise their numbers.

Winter_Present_4185

ADP report negative. I doubt it

RampantPrototyping

Yikes on the ADP report

White_Sugga

The shutdown, the Tarriffs and I just read a bad jobs report by ADP for the private sector

looool_k_libtard

ADP REPORT: NUMBER OF JOBS CREATED IN AUGUST WAS REVISED TO -3,000 FROM 54,000 Lmao

fudge_mokey

As the other commenter pointed out, ADP is a private company

StaleCookies

ADP is consistent. You're thinking of BLS (govt)

Worried_Quarter469

The generals were brought here to bring the ADP people to justice

mcs5280

>🥭: ADP = ANTIFA DEMOCRAT PROPAGANDA. THIS IS THE BEST JOBS MARKET THE WORLD HAS EVER SEEN!  Puts on ADP I guess 

Organic_Season5591

"ADP shows labor market worsening" Market: F you! Labor market and me are not the same! I always get better

LeBhikariLe

ADP CEO must be fired/replaced at this rate for publishing this data

spac420

ADP done lost their dayum minds! LOL! No chill!!! 🤪😭🤣

Dmoan

We will buy ADP and then make them do that

MutaliskGluon

That ADP print confirms what I have known all along. US is in a recession. Its not TECHNICALLY showing as a recession because of AI capex, but thats just burning money to boost GDP. The upcoming depression is going to be fucking brutal for everyone not already well off. Enjoy your gains bulls, start to take profits. And get CRWV Leap Puts

bleesclees

ADP numbers are super ultra mega good guys.

Easik

Is there a parlay on if this administration sues or fires the ADP CEO for this fake news?

GoZukkYourself

Good luck firing the people who work for ADP.

k3t4mine

Based ADP applying the revisions as soon as they get them, instead of waiting till January each year like BLS does.

Specialist-Fee-3288

bad ADP numbers

lostinspacs

ADP is a private company

RedditBlows6942

Government shutdown bullish. 0.5% pullback for shutdown, 3% rip for reopen. ADP numbers were awful, but that just means the fed can cut more, so bullish. Everything is bullish. Literally everything.

OfficerTenBagger

it's called Always Wrong ADP for a reason

Remarkable-Drive3503

The utter lack of movement or interest on ADP release just shows how much wall street gives a fuck to their numbers. Basically NADA. But Bloomberg was flashing red banners at me like the world was ending.

teamyg

🥭 will demand to fire the CEO of ADP, soon.

Jerikolol

FedWatch Tool went from 89% yesterday, to 94% 5mins before ADP numbers to 99% now. Epic winning, we getting our 3 rate cuts this year boiz.

probablyuntrue

ADP about to find itself under 17 different federal investigations

ScrewChaseBank

Holy shit those ADP numbers are atrocious. Fed needs to fucking cut lmao.

gainsusmaximus

ADP jobs report is

lostinspacs

bad ADP data just dropped Gold is guaranteed to move higher through the end of the week

timeforachangee

When does 🥭 take a stake in ADP to fix those numbers

brookedow

September ADP Employment Report -32K VS. +45K EST.

GoZukkYourself

-32k vs. 52k ADP

According-Page8618

US ADP -32K vs 51K Expected, lol

AntiOriginalUsername

So what data is coming out this week after ADP, assuming the shutdown goes to the weekend?

JohnnyFartmacher

ADP came in at -31K. I believe the expectation was +51K

Jerikolol

ADP more like ADropped the Ball... wheres MY DATA???

Ok-Analysis4121

We still get ADP numbers today as they're not a govt agency

Me-Regarded

Oh crap, ADP in 15. Only number this week. Big if true

Ok-Analysis4121

ADP numbers at 8:30 fyi

UnderB0SS

Everyone just gonna use ADP now, which was probably always more accurate anyway.

TollTroll

I think Indeed and LinkedIn gather employment data, and truflation is pretty useful for \~real time consumer price levels. Facteus and ADP are a couple chatgpt just told me about but idk how good they are

yayahi

Dear dairy: have 10k qqq puts, 10/24 and 10/31, 595 expiry. My EXPECTED catalyst is all the job numbers rest of this week i think net on net will be bearish & will start move down. i have 3 micro nq shorted, if we get bad ADP tomorrowt i will legit short a single NQ (30K), so looking to scale in on dumps. if we pump next week after good job reports, i'll probs dip out of puts for -50% & these nq shorts for loss of total of about -10k or so. but i think it's worth, u can't wait really for the drops anymore in these type of market for swings & macro news events to me, this is like 8/10 trade, ight now, techncially, for first time all year, have confluence of all the indicators i watch for when shorting, i shorted 3 times before this year after the tarrif, it went -10k and -4k, then +1k lmao (just few days ago), but i gotta try again lmao, lfg is swing, so ill probably still buy more puts if we drop 1-2%, but not gonna buy more if we keep going up, looking to hold for 4-6 weeks and roll these into other ones later depending on how it goes as always hope the best regard wins

Godzilla_slayer

Note that the ADP jobs report doesn’t account for government jobs.

G0RD0N_CLARK

ADP isn't the government

CulturalDish

ADP isn’t the government.

CulturalDish

ADP Employment Report out at 8:15 AM to flatten the market and then it will trade sideways until everyone is out except Pelosi.

95Daphne

That was purely mechanical because of the JPM collar roll. It was looking like a shaky day before then. My base case is that we start off October with tech leading a down day, and it's mostly just because it's what's happened for the last few months, though you might, might get to see what would happen if ADP is your main jobs report.

95Daphne

Closer to reality probably than what Reddit peeps want to hope. But I do think this shutdown lasts longer than a week. I'll say at least 2 weeks unless you see more people than Fetterman vote yes in the Dem caucus today. Only difference will probably be that you'll get much more of a reaction to ADP this week than you typically do.

RealSchweddy

ADP employment report not looking good

Put_Er_There_Sport

I wonder how ADP employment changes will get affected when roughly 30% of federal employment will be out of their job tonight

Interesting_Bag2762

Does the fed even pay attention to the ADP numbers

DoctorEconomy3475

It won't matter. ADP or someone similar will share their information. The market wants to know and if an official source isn't available, smart people paid by rich people will find the answer a different way. You can't cover up nationwide unemployment.

Interesting_Bag2762

Theres still the ADP redport

GRINZ_DOCTOR

Doesn’t matter, we have private companies to release this information now, Like ADP, that will highlight what’s really going on.

Interesting_Bag2762

Guess were goin with the ADP report this week

eskhalaf

***Tuesday 9/3*** - Chicago PMI (Sep) - JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) - CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) ***Wednesday 10/1*** - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) - Crude Oil Inventories ***Thursday 10/2*** - Initial Jobless Claims ***Friday 10/3*** - Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) - Unemployment Rate (Sep) - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) - S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep) - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

eskhalaf

‏***Tuesday 9/3*** ‏- Chicago PMI (Sep) ‏- JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) ‏- CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) ‏***Wednesday 10/1*** ‏- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) ‏- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) ‏- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) ‏- Crude Oil Inventories ‏***Thursday 10/2*** ‏- Initial Jobless Claims ‏***Friday 10/3*** ‏- Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) ‏- Unemployment Rate (Sep) ‏- Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) ‏- S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) ‏- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep) ‏- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Have a great gainful week 🔥

Pluth

CPI, Consumer Confidence, Jolts, ADP, Jobless claims according to my ThinkorSwim econoday calendar.

eskhalaf

***Tuesday 9/3*** - Chicago PMI (Sep) - JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) - CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) ***Wednesday 10/1*** - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) - Crude Oil Inventories ***Thursday 10/2*** - Initial Jobless Claims ***Friday 10/3*** - Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) - Unemployment Rate (Sep) - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) - S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep) - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

weasler7

EJ Antoni, a heritage foundation guy, is not yet confirmed. There may be a chilling effect though if everyone in the agency thinks they could get fired if they produce "bad" numbers. I think it's too early to say BLS is compromised though. If there are large divergences with private sources (such as ADP data) I would be worried.

madmoravian

They were, until this year when we switched payroll over to ADP.

Financial-Word-4791

If PCE comes in hot (Friday) and/or ADP comes in hot (next week), we might drop.. hard.

DjCyric

Don't gamble your $200 bucks away on some penny stock gamble. Invest it in a solid growth stock and enjoy your returns over the many years. Nvidia, Microsoft, ADP, Visa, Tesla, Google are all solid buys on a down market day like today. Or for lower risk some growth ETFs.

IMSLI

**‘Data like you wouldn’t believe’: the rise of unofficial US economic reports** *Investors and policymakers are increasingly turning to privately produced statistics* [https://www.ft.com/content/d0d3fa3e-cd43-43db-a4e4-10de2f9ebb88](https://www.ft.com/content/d0d3fa3e-cd43-43db-a4e4-10de2f9ebb88) Donald Trump’s attack on US economic institutions and rising concern over the quality of official data are propelling unofficial statistics into an evermore prominent role on Wall Street. The US president has in recent weeks railed against the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces critical reports on inflation and the labour market. His attacks have come as the BLS has struggled with funding and staffing cuts that have made its data collection more challenging. “We’ve always sort of taken for granted that we didn’t have to worry about the confidence of the government data because it set the standard for neutrality and reliability,” said Derek Tang, economist at LHMeyer. “That credibility is being impugned, whether fairly or not, right now.” Last month, following a bleak jobs report, the president sacked BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated loyalist EJ Antoni to replace her. Trump’s administration escalated its assault against the BLS on Tuesday after it revised down its estimates of payroll employment in the year to March 2025 by more than 900,000 jobs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the revision underlined the need for “truthful and honest data” and added that “the BLS is broken”. On Wednesday the labour department’s Office of Inspector General announced it was launching a probe into “challenges that \[BLS\] encounters collecting and reporting closely watched economic data”. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM, said the controversy surrounding the BLS would “increase demand for private label data, which will over time create a widening gap between the haves and the have-nots”. Brian Moynihan, chief executive of Bank of America, last month said government data that relied on surveys “just \[isn’t\] as effective anymore”. He noted that his vast bank can “watch what consumers really do. We watch what businesses really do.” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon echoed Moynihan in a television interview this week. “We get data like you wouldn’t believe,” Dimon said. He added: “The government data is important. Our own data is important. We get data from non-government sources. And you can look at delinquency data, worldwide data, trade data. We get all of that.” Long-standing private reports have recently risen in prominence, including a labour market report collated by payrolls processor ADP. Google searches for the ADP Employment Report have recently trebled. New rivals have appeared on the market, such as Revelio Labs, which earlier this year launched its own monthly labour market statistics, marketed as a “more timely and granular” complement to BLS’s jobs data.