ADP

tryingmybesttolearn2

What? The private sector jobs report such as ADP takes into account over 26M payroll figures and data. BLS survey is only 60K jobs.... ADP has a larger sample which means its most reflective of the data. Also with the new executive order RESTORING ACCOUNTABILITY TO POLICY-INFLUENCING POSITIONS WITHIN THE FEDERAL WORKFORCE from the White House putting into place Schedule F. Any SES or policymaking position which is the top 50K positions that make all the decisions within the Executive Branch which is about 1.5M of the 2.2M federal workforce can be fired at will by the president with no cause. The reason he fired the BLS head prior Erika McEntarferz. The now Acting Commissioner, is William J. Wiatrowski has met with the president several times already. What do you think POTUS told him? I bet my bottom dollar do what I say and report good numbers or your fired. I don't blame William J. Wiatrowski he probably just wants to keep his job and not be unemployed. The USA is becoming like Argentina and Turkey and just fakes its government numbers when their private sector mechanism report the real figures. [https://www.adpresearch.com/how-representative-is-adp-employment-data/](https://www.adpresearch.com/how-representative-is-adp-employment-data/) [https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bls-vs-adp-jobs-reports-divergence-opportunities](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bls-vs-adp-jobs-reports-divergence-opportunities) [https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces\_cps\_trends.htm](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm) [https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/restoring-accountability-to-policy-influencing-positions-within-the-federal-workforce/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/restoring-accountability-to-policy-influencing-positions-within-the-federal-workforce/) [https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/16/ex-bls-chief-said-she-was-blindsided-by-trump-firing-00567852](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/16/ex-bls-chief-said-she-was-blindsided-by-trump-firing-00567852)

Affectionate-Day2743

probably the ADP jobs report being not hot

TheMrfabio24

ADP jobs -150k

ThatFUTGuy

ADP also runs the entirety of $BALL payroll too

I-IV-I64-V-I

The large-ish company i work for just switched to ADP - that would have likely added to their numbers even tho its not technically real job growth \~10k in manufacturing

I-IV-I64-V-I

My company switched to ADP this month/ last month. I wonder if they count that

GneissFrog

correct, and they certainly aren't going to improve after this ADP number

tugrulthelol

The best possible numbers for ADP btw, there is still recorded growth so the economy doesn't look like its in terrible shape, but still below estimates so as to spook the fed into considering rate cuts

GoZukkYourself

US ADP Employment Change Actual 41k (Forecast 50k, Previous -32k)

Reasonable_Roger

ADP +41k Good enough, we pump

Electrical-Snow5167

ADP numbers gonna make it go up no matter what.

sd_glokta

ADP employment report in four minutes...

Any-Cartoonist-7052

ADP & job openings today but does it even matter

ShadowMoneyLurks

You down with ADP? **yeah you know me**

NeighborhoodDry1821

How important is this ADP data? I want blood

ScribbleOnToast

I'm asking Gemini again. Asked it this morning, it said "buy HLT Jan09@290 and sell it 3.10" It's got some interesting ideas about the ADP Jobs data expected tomm.

StocksStormTrooper

ADP employment, Job Reports, and US factory orders tomorrow

eskhalaf

**Week of 1/9 Market News and Data** Hello WSB members, Happy new years to all of you, may this year be a profitable year for all of us! This upcoming week traders, firms, hedge funds etc, get back to the trading desk, which means we get back to normal after the two short weeks. This week we got some few data and reports that are interesting, we also have some quite few earnings coming up this week, not really interesting, but its the early start of the new earnings season. **Monday 1/5:** - ISM Manufacturing Prices & PMI (Dec) **Tuesday 1/6:** - S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) **Wednesday 1/7:** - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices & PMI (Dec) - JOLTs Job Openings (Nov) - Crude Oil Inventories **Thursday 1/8:** - Initial Jobless Claims **Friday 1/9:** - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec) - Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) - Unemployment Rate (Dec) Have a great week WSB members

eskhalaf

**Week of 1/9 Market News and Data** Hello WSB members, Happy new years to all of you, may this year be a profitable year for all of us! This upcoming week traders, firms, hedge funds etc, get back to the trading desk, which means we get back to normal after the two short weeks. This week we got some few data and reports that are interesting, we also have some quite few earnings coming up this week, not really interesting, but its the early start of the new earnings season. Monday 1/5: - ISM Manufacturing Prices & PMI (Dec) Tuesday 1/6: - S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) Wednesday 1/7: - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices & PMI (Dec) - JOLTs Job Openings (Nov) - Crude Oil Inventories Thursday 1/8: - Initial Jobless Claims Friday 1/9: - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec) - Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) - Unemployment Rate (Dec) Have a great week WSB members

PinPsychological82

Lol. I would rather just hold VTI over ADP. What made you put all 7,000 in one stock? Also congratulations on contributing to your Roth!

whitewashedsyrian

Guess we gotta wait for ADP and fed minutes on Wednesday for anything to get goin…

ApartmentFindingThro

ADP isn't the government.

Kirko_Cousins

Market figuring out that GDP and inflation numbers are fake? BLS and ADP data will continue to diverge.

ScrandeZ

Nice breakdown — this is exactly the kind of week where having everything mapped out ahead of time matters. Between dense macro (ISM, ADP, PCE), heavy cloud/AI earnings, and multiple Fed speakers, it’s really about scenario planning instead of reacting in real time. If you like tracking weeks like this, having an events calendar helps a lot. I use [https://catacal.com](https://catacal.com) to keep tabs on macro releases, earnings, conferences, votes, lockups, etc., so it’s easier to see where volatility might cluster and which days actually matter.

JayArlington

LRCX and AMAT as memory companies increase CapEx. TXN and ON as industrial onshoring picks up. NOW as enterprise IT spend gets focused and they prove to not be an AI loser. RKT as mortgage rates drop. And my dark horse… ADP as employment picks up and people realize no one is vibe coding a global payroll platform.

Skittler_On_The_Roof

Are you telling me not only is the government full of shit (I'll buy that), but they've also infiltrated all payroll services like ADP, retailers like Amazon and Walmart, as well as media outlets including NPR? Or is it just more of the doomsday jerkoff that conveniently doesn't have the statics to back it because the government is somehow smart enough to coordinate and elaborate scam with all these other massive entities but not smart enough to not fuck the economy?

FullCopy

Before publishing their numbers, ADP should first check with the good folks running LinkedIn. That platform has 5 trillion jobs and climbing.

FullCopy

ADP Job Report: 3 jobs have been created in Nov.

Kitchen-Safety4218

ADP Report Worse Than It Looks: November saw a 32,000 reduction in US private employment. Small Business Signal: Employers with <50 workers cut 120,000 jobs, while larger firms (+50 workers) added 90,000. Small businesses are a leading indicator due to faster reaction times, less bureaucracy (WARN Act exemption), and limited capital access. Future Outlook: Expect deeper labor market slowing, with larger businesses likely to see employment reductions soon. Investment Thesis: Long VGLT, betting on rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE) to boost bond prices and lower yields. Today's Market (Dec 16, 2025): VGLT is at approximately $55.38. US 10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.17%. US 2-Year Treasury yield is around 3.50%. The S&P 500 closed Monday (Dec 15) at 6,816.51, slipping 0.16%.

ShadowLiberal

Part of the reason for the numbers being so different are because large businesses are much more likely to respond to job surveys then small businesses. So in a case like what ADP outlines, where large businesses are hiring and small businesses are laying off, the government uses the data that they do have (large businesses) to guess the numbers for the non-respondents (small businesses). This is part of why the job numbers all across the world have been becoming less accurate, and having bigger swings when they correct errors later on from late responses coming in.

Ok_Cry7572

ADP Weekly Jobless Claims - Tuesday U.S. Jobs Report - Tuesday U.S. Retail Sales - Tuesday Micon $MU Earnings - Wednesday U.S. CPI Inflation - Thursday Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday

Character_Economy928

I just did the math on my salary and ADP has it at $115k a year and not the $110k I was promoted to I figure payroll dude didn’t realize but it’s going to make for a sad salary increase in April when ADP barely changes

Character_Economy928

I just did the math on my salary and ADP has it at $115k a year and not the $110k I figure payroll dude didn’t realize but it’s going to make for a sad salary increase in April when ADP barely changes

luckyred_28

Ah I'd say we have reached the top. ADP jobs data negative last 4 of 6 months. You would have to go back to late 2007 to get a run like that outside of a recession. 2026 will be a big down year

Crazy_Donkies

ADP barely moves the market.

I-IV-I64-V-I

Look at what was happening before the ADP today. Someone got the report early I wish there was an instant way to track the insiders

GodsPenisHasGravity

That was an ADP report, not government numbers. Dumbass

Mr-FD

Small-cap indexes reach new all-time highs as ADP reports small businesses lose 120,000 jobs due to tariffs

Old_Ape_General

Apparently 🥭 is calling for new leadership at ADP

Peeeeech

They couldn’t rig the ADP report, so they rigged the jobless claims instead

Reasonable_Roger

Jobless numbers match challenger. Beats across the board. Labor market improving? ADP seems to be the outlier here. Who am I kidding. Good news is good, bad news is good. Rate cuts no matter what. Calls.

Own-Depth-537

Either the government or ADP is lying… and honestly I think it’s the government lol

mfalivestock

All based on ADP usage numbers. Imagine paying for ADP as a small company. Lmao

TJMBeav

Turns out ADP was nothing...🤷‍♂️

judge_mercer

>Like last month, I knew the jobs report was gonna beat expectations by a mile.  Part of the problem is that the market was looking for weak numbers that would make a rate cut more likely. That's why today's ADP report was considered bullish by many despite being a bit scary.

Exotic-Body-8734

It was the ADP payroll numbers released this morning

Feeling_Syllabub_270

ADP says y'all mfkers unemployed and broke so how y'all bought Black Friday deals?

ChesterNorris

ADP numbers show a drop of 32,000. Trump's BLS numbers are non-existent. We're flying blindly. This might be the rate cut that tanks the economy.

Saboteurial

Can't speak on structure, but narrative based on a guess: market was printing pre-market this morning and in overnight. Then, ADP reported job losses, which increased rate cut probability. However, MSFT sales goal cut added to AI bubble concerns. Buyers and Sellers uncertain with Algos just moving with momentum.

I-IV-I64-V-I

WHY are insider traders so bullish? ADP was terrible Is it just because we're gonna get the rate cut this December?

d33p7r0ubl3

Love how Nutlick blamed the jobs report on the shutdown when the ADP report is for the private sector

Icommandyou

Kind of worrisome that everybody just started to believe in ADP data

NotGucci

>ADP employment report shows -32,000 jobs lost in November. >Most industries were doing layoffs. The only ones still are hiring are hospitality and healthcare. Really intersting chart here: Seems like small compaines doing lay-off, but big compaines hiring. This is K-type economy, and recession. Mag 7+ semi are going be immune, and carry rest of the market.

GoZukkYourself

ADP is pretty reliable. The BLS, not so much.

rand_walking_charts

So market shook off ADP dat, PMI data, any other data just to make bigger holes in bears anooses. Is that the headline? 😂LMAO🤌🤌🤌

NativePlant870

just wait til Mr. Market hears about the ADP data

Desmater

ADP jobs report.

Bubba_Gump_shrimp1

Dont forget, US jobs report tomorrow (first since shut down), if ADP announced 32k private layoffs, dont exspect tomorrows report to be better. Tomorrow should be a good dip oppertunity, the fedrate will be baking in for next week.

lexi_con

Small businesses are starting to crack amid a weakening economy, rising costs and fickle consumers; and they drove job losses in the US private sector in November, payroll giant ADP reported Wednesday. ADP’s latest monthly look at private-sector employment showed that about 32,000 jobs were lost last month, marking a drop-off from the upwardly revised 47,000 jobs gained in October. ADP’s reports have gained in prominence in recent weeks as the longest shutdown in US history stifled statistical agencies’ abilities to collect, analyze and release economic data. The November jobs report, originally slated for release on Friday, is delayed until December 16. It also will include partial data from October, a month where a full jobs report was nixed. As such, Wednesday ADP data is likely the next-best estimate on the labor market Federal Reserve officials will get before their policymaking meeting next week.

Rez-the-man-123

ADP reports anyone? Good or bad?

mayorolivia

Trump must tariff ADP

Medical-Analysis-554

In the next 3-6 months The Regime will start to target ADP. First the "fake news" talk, then tangible economic persecution. These people hate any sort of independent data or voices

mayorolivia

ADP has ruined capitalism

zeromussc

I wonder if the data errors related to small businesses and how gig worker sign ups work in relation to them are replicated by ADP or if its strictly a methodological issue related to the Fed numbers and how BLS does it. Because if ADP dodges that bullet then this print is \*horrible\* but if they fall under the same methodological error, then this might not be \*as\* bad as it seems. I only say this because I'm not american and I'm not sure how ADP works. But if my assumption that they're that payroll processing company is correct, then this stat shows things are truly getting fucked.

TimelyToast

By ADP definitions, South Atlantic includes Virginia, Maryland, DC, Georgia, Florida, etc. so a mix of Red/Blue states... Deep South saw job gains.

CountThief

The ADP result is bullish. Basically locks in another rate cut

Skilledthunder

> " The ADP report showed private-sector employment dropped by 32,000, with job creation seemingly locked in a standstill. Private employers **unexpectedly** shed jobs in November " how in the hell was it unexpected

Primary-Debate-549

I guess it's the "job report" ? The best we is now ADP (a private payroll processor) apparently. ADP: Private payrolls dropped 32,000 positions last month in slowing job market

falken2023

ADP report was shit.

TickTockTaudit

ADP on the board finally.

Glassesofwater

ADP numbers have been wrong for years going back to Biden

HND171

ADP data supports a rate cut, so…

Glassesofwater

Oh now we take the ADP report seriously? I wouldn’t. The figures are always off from actual figures given by the DOL

find_your_zen

ADP job numbers

FuckleUp

ADP carry trade

Gorgenapper

The only surprise about these ADP numbers is how surprised everyone is acting about it

cdjcon

ADP surprise

Linc_24

Was MSFT not ADP that dumped us

WhatRUsernamesUsed4

I tend to watch construction numbers because they are indicators of growth. BLS had peaked construction in the end of spring, but this was the first construction drop in ADP report. AI can't build buildings, and businesses don't grow without building new infrastructure.

d33p7r0ubl3

SPY pls fly again. Looks like the ADP report spooked someone

clapthattrap445

ADP jobs report bad but good for rate cuts. Quantitative tightening ended bad for short term but moon when quantitative easing starts. Imma be extra careful today.

Adventurous-Goal478

ADP Employment was -32k when estimated to be +10k

orangeyougladiator

ADP reports -32k jobs; expected +40k. No problem, those 70k jobs are going to be replaced by AI anyway right? Microsoft lowers AI revenue guidance. 🤨

bub356

*ADP US NOV. PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT FALLS 32,000; EST. +10K In case you’re crying why your calls are going to open down 50%.

VeganTurkishBaklava

ADP job report

Uisce-beatha

ADP employment and if the numbers we are getting suck this bad then one could only imagine how bad the shit this administration is hiding or fudging actually are

FrancisBitter

MSFT lowers sales predictions, ADP employment report is *really* bad

The_Albertino

What happened to 683? Was it the ADP data?

osendze

ADP wasn’t good?

New_Ad_1682

So my long term portfolio combines a buy and hold strategy with S and P 500 companies (80% or so anyway). Every day I look at S and P 500 companies and buy them on significant dips. This works great because I get the benefits of a weighted S and P 500 ETF with the added benefit of market timing. So I'm timing the market so I can have time in the market. In four months, I'm up a little over 20% with this strategy. However, in the last two weeks there have been like zero dips worth buying. Is it too much to ask that the market freaks out a lil over this ADP data? Papa's getting bored throwing miniscule amounts at short term options.

Commercial_Horror204

freshly bad ADP JOB ==> more rate cuts ==> SPY new ATH incoming today

1M-to-Zero

What does it mean by this... November private payrolls unexpectedly fell by 32,000, led by steep small business job cuts, ADP reports

tabrizzi

In the absence of government data, we now have to rely more on private data. But some dude is going to scream "fake news" or designate ADP a terrorist organization.

Distinct_Soil6308

No reaction to ADP… still range bound. Defense still on the field.

Charming_Raccoon4361

bear party **ADP** employment report shows -32,000 jobs lost in November.

FullCopy

ADP: Private employment drops to 10K. EST: 67 millions.

ImSorryReddit0590

ADP came in at -32k jobs instead of the +5k forecasted which was already low Explains why they’re trying to hide economic data/jobs reports the numbers have to be atrocious

FullCopy

ADP: Thousands of poors are being made everyday.

sailortyx56

ADP Employment report breakdown Northeast US: -100k Midwest: +45k South: -43.8k West: +67k Manufacturing -18k, Information -20k, Prof Services -26k, Financials -9k

JasonTong2005

US ADP is shit which means bull right?