ADP
Automatic Data Processing Inc
Mentions (24Hr)
100.00% Today
Reddit Posts
Midterms, jobs and AI earnings: can tech find a floor this week? My outlook for November 2-6
ALEC: Genentech deal + Oct 13 R&D event
ADP Automatic Data Processing stock, AMPL ADP APPF APPN
Treasury yields remain high even after all recent reports indicated softer inflation and econ data. Is this concerning for the market?
Treasury yields remain high even after all recent reports indicated softer inflation and econ data. Is this concerning for the market?
Stock Market Recap for Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Stock Market Recap for Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Private companies added just 44,000 workers in July, below expectations, ADP reports
Jobs report smashes expectations with payroll growth of 172,000
ADP Payrolls Drop: Will Wage Growth Hold or Signal Labor Market Cooling?
$MVST DD: US battery company carving out assets, acting real suspicious
ADP: US private payrolls +62K vs +39K est in March. 58K of 62K in education and health services
ADP: US private payrolls +62K vs +39K est in March. 58K of 62K in education and health services
Private sector hiring totaled 62,000 in March, better than expected, ADP says
I dug into the filings for 5 "boring" companies and now I think boring is underpriced
ADP: Private employers added 63,000 jobs last in February, the best monthly showing since July
Week Recap: Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time ever. The S&P 500 lost 0.10%. Is the rally starting? Feb. 2, 2026 – Feb. 6, 2026
ADP Payrolls just hit 22k vs 48k expected. Labor market is definitely cooling.
Private payroll growth in January misses expectations as market awaits official jobs data
Why have Software - Applications stocks been in free fall for many months? ADBE SAP CRM UBER SHOP INTU NOW ADP SNOW ADSK
Private payrolls rose by just 22,000 in January, far short of expectations, ADP says
Longterm investing is over and no one wants value
ADP: Automatic Data Processing Q2 Earnings Call - Live Transcript on WallStreetBets
Any brokerage recommendations for transfering a penny stock to?
Week Recap: The S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% after Trump's venezuela move and closed all-time high. Precious metals also gained. The labor market continues to signaling. Jan. 5, 2026 – Jan. 9, 2026
The November ADP Jobs report is worse than you think, and a sign of what's to come
Week Recap: The Fed cuts interest rates by 0.25%. Chip stocks dragged down the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 broke 2-week winning streak. Dec. 8, 2025 – Dec. 12, 2025
Crucial Fed decision looms as stocks fly high near records: What to watch this week
Week Recap: Bank of Japan signals 25 interest rate hike. The Fed will probably by 25 rate cut next week. Neutral week completed. It still finished higher. Dec. 1, 2025 – Dec. 5, 2025
ADP data shows sharp slowdown in the U.S. labor market as small businesses struggle
ADP data shows sharp slowdown in the U.S. labor market as small businesses struggle
November private payrolls unexpectedly fell by 32,000, led by steep small business job cuts, ADP reports
Futures inch up as markets price in higher odds of a December Fed rate cut
Asian stocks edge up, Japan bond auction in focus
US Mortgage Market Stays Frozen as Rates Hold Steady Buyers Only Moving for Cheaper Loans
U.S. labor market showing more cracks ADP says layoffs rising sharply
Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports
MTG resigning, but not before betting ADP & PAYX
Asian markets make tepid gains as US shutdown set to end
Wake me up when the Shutdown ends
Fed Faces a Gamble Ahead of Next Interest Rate Decision (my analysis of the current situation)
Week Recap: The government is still closed. The stock market showed cornerns about AI bubble and the S&P 500 broke 3-week winning streak. It closed the week lower more than 1.5%. Nov. 3, 2025 – Nov. 8, 2025
OSCR earnings as an example of future rug pulls
US government shutdown now officially the longest in history
AI Revolution Prompts Most October US Layoffs in Over 20 Years
US private payrolls rebound in October, but some industries continue to shed jobs
Private sector created nearly 15,000 jobs a week over the past month, preliminary ADP data shows
BYND holders: email IR to request an OBO/NOBO audit + holder reconciliation (template inside)
The Wall Street Journal: "Fed Lost Access to Private Jobs Data [from ADP] Ahead of Government Shutdown"
Powell: Economy’s firmer, but labor’s stalling what does that mean for rate cuts?
$LDI $50k YOLO. Don't sleep on this multibagger, last week to load up
Analysis of current market and overview of the bear thesis
No jobs report? ADP just lit a fuse
ADP September jobs survey sees decline of 32,000, missing expected 44,000 gain.
Stock Market Today: Dow set to fall 150 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq also called lower, as U.S. government enters shutdown and ADP reports jobs decline
ADP employment change way below expectations -32k vs 52k
Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout
ADP US Sept. Private Employment Falls 32,000, Est. +51k
Alternative Economic Data Poised to Gain Influence in Year Ahead
I'm done. Going to listen to Warren now
Week Recap: The stock market closed higher. Labor market grow slow. A rate cut is almost certain, but recession concerns are rising. September 1, 2025 – September 5, 2025
Weak US Payroll Growth of 22,000 Cements Case for Fed Rate Cut
Cooling labor market vs expanding services, mixed signals before the jobs report
Market just doesn’t make sense at this point.
Labor market growth slows dramatically in August with U.S. adding just 54,000 jobs, ADP says
Jobs Data Week: Will the Fed Deliver Cuts or Kill the Rally?
Massive RKT rocket mortgage development
Since BLS Reports are about to lose relevance/credibility what other reports are you watching? ADP maybe?
Since BLS Reports are about to loose relevance/credibility what other reports are you watching? ADP May be?
Mentions
You can look at independent ADP reports if you like. Doesn't fit your narrative though.
Do you expect ADP to walk straight into the Department of Labor and demand non-fake numbers?
Yes but ADP is trying to extrapolate the broader economy by using their slice of insight. Have they ever said they think that the government numbers are wrong or are they just giving their own estimation based on the smaller set of numbers they have?
ADP literally does this and their numbers have been interesting the past couple months. * **August 2026:** A sharp divergence occurred when the BLS reported that the economy added 127,000 private payroll jobs. Meanwhile, ADP's report pointed to a much weaker gain of only 38,000 private jobs. \[[1](https://fhmtg.com/blog/oops-bls-does-it-again/)\] * **October 2026:** ADP reported that private payrolls expanded by a steady **86,000 jobs**. Two days later, the broader BLS employment report significantly blew past expectations, indicating a much stronger private-sector gain of **127,000 jobs** (and 165,000 total nonfarm jobs). \[[1](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/04/private-companies-added-86000-jobs-in-october-slightly-higher-than-expected-adp-says.html), [2](https://fhmtg.com/blog/oops-bls-does-it-again/), [3](https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-today-october-data-live-updates-2026-11)\]
No, ADP is up. So is DUK, FSLR, GRAB, HEINY, SO, and VMRK. (So is the cash in the money market!) I'm bagholding a ton of tech shite ... but it was obviously time to start rotating into companies with lower PE's and dividends a while back. Probably ain't too late, either - there will be a bounce, and thus another chance to GTFO ... right?
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Oct) 86K vs 67K est.
Tomorrow puts if ADP is neutral or higher than expected, reinforced by ISM Serhice prices higher
That’s not rotation, that’s risk off panic. ADP popping 3% doesn’t means people are hiding in payroll processors because they’re terrified of duration risk. XLP being is literally the market saying give me the canned food and toilet paper stocks because I don’t trust anything else.
Safety companies. ADP is up over 3%, consumer staples is up XLP, oil is up XLE, healthcare is up XLV. Tech is down 5+% XLK.
Is ADP starting to look overvalued? I know it has a lower multiple compared to peers, but it seems like it has gone up too fast.
TNET | TriNet Group - Current Price: $70.39 - Market Cap: ~$3.23B - Bull Target (12–18m): $90–$100 - Bear Target: $55–$60 - Upside: +28% to +42% - Downside: -15% to -22% - Reward-to-Risk: ~2.0:1 🟢 - Success Probability: 60% - Expected ROI: ~+16% - Forward P/E: ~15.6 - Debt-to-Equity: 7.60 🔴 - Total Debt: ~$950M - Cash: ~$358M - Net Debt: ~$592M - Dividend Yield: ~1.7% - Revenue (TTM): ~$4.8B - Q2 Revenue Growth: -5% YoY 🔴 - Q2 Net Income: $53M, +43% YoY 🟢 - Free Cash Flow (TTM): ~$288M 🟢 - Share Count: -3.0% YoY 🟢 - ROIC: ~24.6% 🟢 - Price Trend: Weak longer-term trend, attempting to stabilize 🟡 - Bull-Case Market Cap: ~$4.1B–$4.6B - Comparable Companies: Paychex, ADP, Insperity - Risk: Moderate-High - Conviction: 6/10 - Grade: B TriNet provides outsourced HR, payroll, benefits and compliance services primarily to small and midsize businesses. Earnings, free cash flow and buybacks are encouraging, but falling revenue, declining worksite employees and very high debt-to-equity prevent me from going above B despite the roughly 2:1 reward-to-risk at $70.39.
Simple example, last Friday ADP employment numbers came in at 29K, way below expectation. And the stock market went up.
the 29k miss is just the headline tweak – the big picture still feels tense. payroll revisions cut about 58k in the last three months, but ADP and Paychex keep reporting +70k plus payroll‑cost pressure, so the labor market isn’t that idle. the 5.5% 30‑yr signals tighter financials but the Fed is still eyeballing sticky prices, and a near‑zero break‑even growth is a red flag – labor supply could tighten, wages could jump again. so it’s not just “wages flat”; the underlying dynamics can still make the Fed wary enough to hike in October if inflation expectations push back up.
if you look at the Dallas Fed's breakeven job growth lineit’s roughly zero these days—so that 50k prompt is the slack you can get before unemployment rises, not a flat 50k of “real” growth. even the ADP payroll report shows a \~40k rise in July‐August payrolls, which suggests the market is still feeling some strength after the headline revisions. on the Fed side, the last hike was a price‑signal pull‑back that already pushed the 30‑yr curve >5.5%. with inflation still stubborn and the 2‑year‑30‑yr spread compressing, they can’t just hammer the rate up again without risking a sudden cooling of the economy. so the revisions do point to a cooling labor market, but the inflation‑risk and the shape of the yield curve keep the Fed from flipping policy in the next meeting.
What is this based on lol Government data has become less trustworthy sure but anyone who has a need for these metrics has just switched to buying high quality replacements from private brokers. Nobody is holding their nose and blindly continuing to use government numbers in their models, they are buying alternative inflation numbers from PriceStats or State Street, payroll estimates from ADP, etc The current market is not a mirage based on government cooked numbers hopium, it’s just an AI momentum trade
ADP publishes their own report based on their own data: https://adpemploymentreport.com/
Trust but verify of course, but this report is a survey based on business plans. Plans obviously change. The environment we're in is also chaotic because of the current administration so I would expect a lot of revisions. Check the ADP report which looks at actual payrolls and both should be directionally similar.
Here's the ADP report on private employment: https://adpemploymentreport.com/
I am betting it drops. The market needs overnight to digest the PCE and ADP jobs report.
ADP says total jobs increase and salaries up, PCE says inflation still bad but not as bad as predicted. Looking like a decently green day!
Indeed, but what's surprising though is that the ADP employment number isn't bad, like it's not great but it isn't horrible either and they can't cook those numbers. Very confusing data.
ADP — are those 90,000 jobs in the room with us?
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) 90K vs 73K est.
| Time ET | Report | Expected | If ABOVE expected | If BELOW expected | |---|---|---:|---|---| | **8:15** | **ADP private jobs** | **+72K** | 🔴 More hiring → yields may rise → **QQQ/tech pressured** | 🟢 Weaker hiring → yields may fall → **tech relief** | | **8:30** | **Core PCE MoM** | **+0.3%** | 🔴 **Biggest danger.** Hot inflation → yields/Fed expectations ↑ → **QQQ, SMH, AAPL, DELL ↓** | 🟢 **Best outcome for tech.** Inflation cooling → yields ↓ → tech potentially ↑ | | **8:30** | Headline PCE MoM | ~**+0.4%** | 🔴 Inflation hotter, especially problematic with expensive oil | 🟢 Inflation pressure easing | | **8:30** | Core PCE YoY | roughly **3.3–3.4%** | 🔴 If materially above that → stronger “higher-for-longer” reaction | 🟢 Below that → favorable for bonds/tech | | **8:30** | Per
I don't see proof he's wrong yet. Fundamental business isn't really in the toilet, just not stellar and it's McDonalds turn for the sentiment dumping. People were dumping on MSFT last year, not so much anymore. People were dumping on ADP earlier this year, not so much anymore. Somebody gets an idea that things are falling apart with a grain of truth and the sheep all jump off the cliff. It should recover in time. I don't know about 340 by Q127, but MCD will be fine.
what happen with ADP ? I don’t get it
Preview for this next week, Skew is pretty evenly distributed, with 7790 being an upside cap and 7550 being the downside floor. 7650 still remains the point of control for this week. A shift from last weeks bearish positioning to neutral. Above 7650 into Tuesday close sets up a high probability for further upside into weeks end. Vol has come out post fomc/opex with little room below to sustain large upside. Vix currently at 14.8 with about 1 vol point left to contract. Breadth is horrendous with sp500 stocks above 20dma at 19% 50dma at 28% and 200dma at 50% Dispersion has bounced off the cycle lows, and putting all of these together, the highest probability for this week is Dispersion expansion with single stock vol rising, rotations, and a fairly subdued index. SPX likely trades between 7600-7700 for the week with no sustained multi day trends. A fairly quiet week for macro compared to last, we have a few bond auctions every day but friday this week, as well as several fed member speeches. Tuesday ADP, Wednesday Trump/Xi summit, and PMI, thursday jobless claims.
Posting this one more time for the regards in the back. Not only is the left tail fatter this week, its also longer. Higher probability of a down week and a larger downside range than upside. 50pts of upside compared to 150 pts of downside From a positioning perspective in SPX, this week has a negative skew. 7700 is the upside 7650 is the point of control and 7500 is the lower bound. If we stay below the control of 7650 into Wednesday, massive charm flows and delta decay start the slide lower. 7625 is the first accelerator and thursday 7575 is the max accelerator. ADP and 20y bond auction on tuesday and FOMC Wednesday. Light calender thursday and OPEX Friday. Monday and tuesday is all positioning ahead of the event, and noise. Wednesday is the tell, and the point of control decides direction. Into Wednesdays meeting Above 7650 7700 into opex, below 7650 7500 into opex.
From a positioning perspective in SPX, this week has a negative skew. 7700 is the upside 7650 is the point of control and 7500 is the lower bound. If we stay below the control of 7650 into Wednesday, massive charm flows and delta decay start the slide lower. 7625 is the first accelerator and thursday 7575 is the max accelerator. ADP and 20y bond auction on tuesday and FOMC Wednesday. Light calender thursday and OPEX Friday. Monday and tuesday is all positioning ahead of the event, and noise. Wednesday is the tell, and the point of control decides direction. Into Wednesdays meeting Above 7650 7700 into opex, below 7650 7500 into opex.
From a positioning perspective in SPX, this week has a negative skew. 7700 is the upside 7650 is the point of control and 7500 is the lower bound. If we stay below the control of 7650 into Wednesday, massive charm flows and delta decay start the slide lower. 7625 is the first accelerator and thursday 7575 is the max accelerator. ADP and 20y bond auction on tuesday and FOMC Wednesday. Light calender thursday and OPEX Friday. Monday and tuesday is all positioning ahead of the event, and noise. Wednesday is the tell, and the point of control decides direction. Into Wednesdays meeting Above 7650 7700 into opex, below 7650 7500 into opex.
Funny how ADP released their numbers of like 36k jobs created and also on the same day diesel prices hit record highs. If you think anything that comes out of this regime is legit I have a bri to sell you in Brooklyn
Big difference between the ADP numbers and the federal government numbers. Pretty suspicious to me.
Yeah, ADP reports numbers, but all people talk about is the *number* of jobs, not the *quality and pay* of those jobs. Easy to say we've created 160k jobs, but they're all fucking part-time.
Meanwhile [ADP](https://adpemploymentreport.com/) reports largest gains were in Education and Health Services, with other big gains in Construction, Leisure & Hospitality and Finance.
Doesn’t ADP report numbers as well? Can’t we get a “clearer” picture with those numbers?
The thousands of economist reviewing it and the correlation with ADP and Blackstone. But feel free to ignore it if you want
The thousands of economist reviewing it and the correlation with ADP and Blackstone. But feel free to ignore it if you want
The thousands of economist reviewing it and the correlation with ADP and Blackstone. But feel free to ignore it if you want
Somehow ADP payroll numbers don't correlate. 38,000 added less than 47,000 predicted. We'll see downward revision after elections https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-09-02-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-38,000-Jobs-in-August?utm_
HUGE LIE! Compare BLS vs. ADP payrolls and this is a complete CROCK OF SHIT....as usual. Only 38,000 jobs were added in August.
Bullshit!!! The ADP numbers do not remotely resemble these numbers for private sector job growth. Another damn lie.
ADP reports are now the gold standard. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/09/02/private-payrolls-rose-by-38000-in-august-fewer-than-expected-adp-reports.html
It’s completely fake. ADP came in under expectations and somehow this one reported by the government is 3x higher than expectations? Trump is already bragging about it and that we should cut rates. It’s 100% going to be adjusted next month much lower.
First of the all the ADP report from August gives a completely different picture with only 39,000 added, it is a HUGE difference and worthy of being looked into. In the new report food and drinking service added 59,000 and local gov education added 42,000 while tech and finance lost 34,000 jobs. I know this logic will be hard to follow but Trump is now openly calling for ending trade with all countries with a trade surplus because of this report. He also is demanding that rates be lowered when a job report like this actually makes it more likely for rates to be raised. The market probably hates his reaction and the more likely increased rates.
62% of these "increases" were low paying jobs. August tends to be the hardest jobs report to predict but the gap between ADP in the private sector jobs couldn't be wider. Next month won't have the luxury of massive education and cafeteria workers added to payroll. Can't wait to see how they cook the books next month. BTW even these numbers are weak for past August Reports. The bar is so low.
Hmm... interesting how these numbers don't follow the same trend as ADP's...
I feel like the only way to explain the current price action is that they think the jobs numbers are BS (They probably are since ADP was completely different).
I feel like ADP was the opposite? Who's lyin'?
We have different social circles then. Also, previous jobs data such as ADP came below estimates recently.
If he wants rate cute/no hikes it'll have to be pretty bad. Which would match ADP.
If you don't think the FOMC is going to raise interest rates, go look at US bonds and then tell me there is another way to get that situation under control. I don't think they can get a financial repression system in place soon enough, and this is a global problem anyway, not a national one, so repression mechanics are much less effective in that scenario. It seems like the market is trying to creep up because of that less-than-great ADP employment report, but it wasn't negative jobs and I don't think the gov reports between now and the next week would change things. CPI/PPI next week is probably going to be bad due to resumed war and the diesel price passthrough is not going to be ignored. That will seal the deal, I think. Diesel is going to make food and transportation prices explode in the next three months. The FOMC members are not stupid. They know this. Trump currently thinks he's winning. See the WSJ article from yesterday. His plan is to continue like this for another six months. It's not going to last six months when diesel hits $6.50. And between tropical storms, required maintenance after running over 95% util for an extended period of time, school busses starting to run, farmers harvesting, and dwindling supplies already, prices will most definitely hit at least $6.50. Explain why I am wrong, and I would like to be wrong.
Try not to read it so literally. Yes we all know and acknowledge that foreign policy is outside the Fed’s wheelhouse. However, Trump and Bessent both realize that reducing inflation + giving the markets a tailwind will increase their Nov electability odds considerably. \+ recognize and acknowledge Warsh is focused on reducing inflation. The Fed’s only tool for that is rate hikes. Yes, weak ADP yesterday and likely weak NFP on Friday will lessen the probability of rate hikes. But those two data points do not lessen the supply shock of high oil prices as a result of less Strait traffic over the last six months. Put that all together and it leaves Trump with really only one option - stop the attack on Iran in order to get the Strait open.
ADP employment miss: good we can lower rates to pretend it’s to hire more but really we’re just gonna keep quiet layoffs going Factory order beat: more AI. More data center Bond yields up: no one wants to invest in failed governments. We want the government of by and for the data center. Pump it motherfucker. Let’s LBO the new world order and accelerate to AI-ocracy
That ADP report was bad right. Is that good or bad for stoks?
ADP report might pump the market, hell yeah..!
ADP payroll lower than expected for August - rate hikes are certainly off the table now
ADP nonfarm employment change 8:15am ET tomorrow
You mean the report that we get every single month in between the ADP jobs report that we also get every month so the report that we basically get every two weeks?
Lol, sure bro. They're already lying about the jobs numbers, but your idea that some random organization doing inflation numbers has them shaking in their boots, I'm sure. [here's a link](https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=ADP+Jobs+Report)
ADP for example, does payroll and jobs numbers.
QBTS and RGTI puts on Monday ahead of Tuesday’s JOLTS and ISM reports. Strong readings could push rate-hike expectations and the 2-year yield higher. Wednesday’s ADP report could add further pressure if employment comes in strong, followed by Thursday’s jobless claims and ISM Services, where low claims and hot inflation data would favor the puts. Friday’s jobs report is the biggest catalyst, with strong payrolls, low unemployment, and hot wage growth creating the most bearish setup for the week.
US private employers added an average of 25,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending May 30, 2026, per the ADP Research Institute, a slight dip from the previous period’s 29,000 weekly gain. This marks the fourth straight week of slowing job growth. where are dem jobs dammit (holding a fry basket at wendys)
ADP, Oracle, Dayforce UKG, SucessFactors .. pretty much every Workday competitor in HCM is significantly inferior.
Unfortunately, there is no one-size-fits-all approach. Right solution for your business depends on employee count, geographic footprint, number of countries where payroll needs to be processed, and the complexity of functions such as benefits, time tracking, recruiting, performance management, etc. In general, it's like a Lego set - all these components can be supported by different products that are interconnected. Among the major players, SAP SuccessFactors is biggest competitor. They offer heavy discounts if you are already using their ERP products of Finance, Supply Chain, Inventory etc. For smaller and mid-sized businesses, BambooHR, Gusto, and ADP make more sense. They don't offer the same depth or global capabilities, but they do the job and are cost-effective.
Yep. Workday for goals, annual/quarterly employee reviews, peer feedback and all of that bullshit and ADP for actual payroll. We aren't a serious company
My company uses both workday and ADP lmao
is it like a dollar tree version of ADP?
No. It's just the economy. Money circulates. You could say that AWS improves the customer experience downstream but things like Pipedrive, ADP, QuickBooks rarely end up customer facing. Even a company like Home Depot makes more money B2B than B2C. You could argue that B2B is about improving the customer experience but the same argument can be made about AI voice, AI chips for Toyota safety features, and other uses of AI that's already widespread. No one knows if this is or isn't a bubble but ask what would've happened to Cisco and AOL if Wi-Fi was five years sooner.
\> treasury deficit and ADP unemployment numbers beating past recorded ATH puts on america
Private hiring in the US has slowed for the sixth strait week, per ADP Three lost decades
I agree with a trust but verify attitude, but revisements are normal as businesses respond to the survey late. The survey also asks about plans which later change. If you read the report it also mentions all categories are flat to down except healthcare which fits other data out there. Finally, there's the private ADP report, while not the same measurement as the BLS, can give you a directional indicator.
Why do we still watch the numbers out of the Dept of Labor and Statistics when they haven’t been reliable in 50 years? ADP has a better accuracy rating. SMH...
ADP benefits from a very similar cash advantage
ADP was 30k light, no jobs for people
How cooked jobs report gonna be? ADP came in a little light iirc.
Investing.bullshit had to send out a push notification because nobody in retail sold the ADP print lmao.
ADP number like \_fart sound\_
Hot ADP jobs would probably be the only chance for a decent dump today I'd think
The software names should come back strong. Just because AI can tell you how to make great lasagna doesn’t mean you’ll stop going out to dinner. VRSK NOW INTU PAYX ADP BR Thank me later!
The software names should come back strong. Just because AI can tell you how to make great lasagna doesn’t mean you’ll stop going out to dinner. VRSK NOW INTU PAYX ADP BR Thank me later!
The software names should come back strong. Just because AI can tell you how to make great lasagna doesn’t mean you’ll stop going out to dinner. VRSK NOW INTU PAYX ADP BR Thank me later!
No, I’m perfectly happy being overweight in CME, Berkshire, ADP, Eli Lilly, and RSP. Other than that it’s just Google and TSM, both of which I bought forever ago.
I would buy Amazon ASM International AMD ADP
What'd you buy at? I told my Uncle to get in at 500... and then wait and buy SKHY at in anither quarter when Rubin starts shipping(that's when SKHY has the ability to raise the price on HBM). He bought 2,000 shares at 980 and then bought SKHY at 170 on the day of the ADP... Now he's asking when it'll go up... and I have to tell him when Rubin is fully rampin, then I think SKHY could go to 300 and MU could go to 1500 or higher... He didn't listen.
ADP isn't actual jobs, it's an estimate as well, they just use the data based on payroll they process while BLS uses surveys from companies They're not sandbagging for a cut. We need one to help reduce national debt interest obligations, it's not just personal.
The reversal on the jobs report which printed weaker than the July 1st ADP, actual jobs data, after printing WAY too hot for the last year + is very strange. It's still using the same model. It's also particularly fishy because 9 of the 18 Governors projected hikes on June 17th. They're sandbagging for a cut into a recession. That's what Trump wants for his ~$500M in bonds. [Nearly every asset](https://www.davemanuel.com/2026/05/14/trump-278t-filings-3711-trades-may-2026/) class he holds benefits from a cut.
All because of some ADP data nobody will care about by 1pm..... SMH, lesss chance of rate cuts ;)
is ADP down for anyone else right now
Corrections happen, no disagreement there. There was a strong argument to be made about specific companies being overvalued, especially considering capex spending and the circular nature of the AI investment cycle. The Yen spiking to 160 doesn't "happen all the time" though. Besides 2024 and now, you'd have to go back to pre-1990 to see the Yen at the same level or higher. In other words, an entirely different era and economy. My argument is that the current narrative about inflation, US interest rates, and the jobs number, isn't the main driver of this. The big banks and other institutions have likely adjusted their models since the start of the war. ADP was also a precursor to the NFP numbers coming in higher than expected, so it wasn't really a "surprise". What likely wasn't in the models was an immediate spike in the Yen to a level that caused a reaction from Japanese officials in 2024. There's much public information about the magnitude of the carry trade, but it's not small. Right now, conservative estimates point to at least $250b in yen denominated debt by US institutions. In 2024, a lot of the discussion about the carry trade pointed to it primarily landing in tech investments. I don't think it's coincidence that when the Yen spiked on Friday, most of the market sold off with above average volume; treasuries, gold, silver, oil, all major indexes, etc.
ADP pulls data from a greater source and doesnt include government jobs. I dont trust Trumps lackeys at BLS, and I dont care if a significant amount of government jobs were created.
ADP only covers about 20% of all private sector employees. You wouldn’t ever expect their number to be similar to BLS’s.
Right but revisions happen all the time and ADP reported only 122k jobs. Also, 172k jobs isnt a great number and 122k obviously isnt either.
Yes, because ADP shows a similar bump: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/06/03/adp-jobs-report-may-2026-payrolls-increase-by-122000.html
It's consistent with Jolts and ADP so maybe the number is inflated, but the general trend might be correct.
Ok I see, but also ADP is on friday, if early derisking happens overnight, what could schwab even do here to this account, they could just put your accoutn to 0 or negative can they?