ADP

whiskeyinthejaar

I think part of that is lack of trust of the government in a very generic way. There are valid reasons of this skepticism mostly socioeconomic ones, but then it all gets tossed away whenever you see train of thoughts like the OP. CPI, Unemployment, GDP, and all these statistical reports are massively flawed, but no one cares when things are good; they are just cooked when numbers are not to to the mood of some. Its like the gap between ADP and BLS reporting on jobs. Every year or other, there will be massive gap. Nothing new and nothing is cooked, its just different calculations that smooth out overtime. Point being, sometimes people read, but no matter whats in there, the numbers are fake and everyone is lying.

DD_equals_doodoo

I understand the skepticism, but when you consider other metrics/measures (like ADP, disposable income, hours, JOLTS, etc.) they essentially all point in one direction. My feeling/sense is that people got used to *the* best job market in U.S. history and are trying to adjust/understand.

jeditech23

Yes. My point was there was no guarantee. Sorry if I'm ambiguous with my ramblings In March 2020 when the market completely fucking took a shit, if I known the Fed was going to turn the money printer on turbo mode .. hell I would have dumped everything I had into the market and to other assets I've been burned several times before and was just trying to play it safe because everybody was getting laid off.. I know if I got laid off then my ADP pay history would be cut and then mortgage Access would be eliminated. It's hard to tell the future

Revolutionary-Web673

I believe so..I’ll look into it. That’s all I see in my ADP app.

Evening_Cut4422

That's the employment situation at 8.30. We have 2 data today ADP at 8.15 and nonfarm at 8.30

dacalo

ADP was yesterday. Tomorrow is from Bureau of Labor.

Evening_Cut4422

This is for ADP tonight, if unemployment rate is up we pump. If its unemployment rate is dumb I think all hell break lose as retail paper hands. Then we bleed till CPI

Evening_Cut4422

Nope. ADP tonight and CPI next wenesday. If any of this is hot I believe we will see another huge leg down.

Evening_Cut4422

The data is gonna be hot, but the private data is shit while the gov side is manipulated. They have been doing this shit for 5months now, so if anything we will hit expectation then trade sideways untill the next data like all previous ADP

Evening_Cut4422

Yup ADP just looked up their Callander

Evening_Cut4422

ADP is tmr (jobs data)

InformalBasil

It certainly seems unjust but at the small company I work at it played out in a way the benefited everyone. Back in 2015 the company offered a really poor 401k. There was no match and 1% fees on the terrible funds that were part of the plan. The plan was so awful that the only people who decided it was worth it were our highly compensated managers and sales people. As a group they were very pissed with the company failed the ADP test. They were also the people in the company with the most power to influence change. The next year the company got a new 401k plan with lower fees and a safe harbor match. Unsurprisingly participation when up.

JohnnySquesh

Jobs number and yield response should dictate the action. Could be right back in business w a weak number. ADP scared people earlier in the week. 3 rate cuts this year seems unlikely unless inflation and economic data start to roll over. Later in the year seems more likely.

dacalo

Bruh ADP was yesterday

iBeFlying676

All depends on ADP data tomorrow

john2557

Enjoying this rally, but am a little worried about the jobs report tomorrow. Signs (i.e. Jolts, ADP, etc.) seem to point toward a hot print. Market doesn't seem concerned though.

iBeFlying676

$VIX going down steadily tells me nobody gives two fucks about ADP data tomorrow.

iBeFlying676

Nothing today. ADP data coming out tomorrow and everyone waiting for it.

iBeFlying676

It will all day. No movement till ADP data tomorrow. Don't buy any 0DTEs

iBeFlying676

I think that is it for today, boys and girls. Market gonna be flat as fuck till ADP data tomorrow morning. Don't waste your money on 0DTE options, just to feed theta.

tropicalia84

30,000 more new jobs than expected from ADP report. Stocks green. 7,000 more jobless claims than expected. Stocks extremely green.

ComprehensivePaint48

Market was looking for any excuse to pump irrationally lol. Can’t believe what a slight tick in unemployment means inflation is over rate cuts secured. But yeah ignore the ADP from the day before Tomorrow gonna be interesting.

MenthorQ

yeah honestly, your best bet when there is an event like today ie ADP is to use spreads. We knew going in this morning that the market was in negative gamma. So we knew the day would have been volatile simply by looking at the option positioning. Plus an event most of the times is volatile. With option spreads you risk manage. You dont want to be directional when there is so much volatility, or better if you are you better know how to risk manage your position if it goes against you.

LargeLie821

According to the technical graphics analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, when the index falls to the 30-day moving average, it will rebound. It has happened 3 times so far. So is today the fourth rebound? Personally, I think there is a good chance of a rebound today. The adjustment of the Dow Jones Index in the past two days is a good thing, because there is no one that can only rise but not fall, and there is no one that can only fall but not rise. In addition, economic-related news must be combined, which will have a certain impact on the stock market. There is another piece of news that deserves everyone's attention today, and that is the employment rate in the United States. However, the news has been announced. U.S. ADP employment increased by 184,000 in March. It is expected to increase by 150,000, and the previous value increased by 140,000. From a comprehensive perspective, the Dow Jones Index is more likely to rise today, so the market will generally rise today. Let us look forward to it together...

4score-7

We should be selling off TODAY, not yesterday. Unless, of course, and I’m just conspiracy-sharing, someone got the ADP numbers ahead of time….

MenthorQ

ADP? No way

MenthorQ

Note that the Dollar made a big move higher here after the ADP numbers. Bullish dollar is never fun for equity markets https://preview.redd.it/clslh2llo9sc1.png?width=1050&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a7d24dc862228328c8f9cc237519fc99bfe5044

MenthorQ

he is hiding after today's ADP lol

MenthorQ

Lol. This ADP says US firms added 184k jobs in March, Est. 150k. US firms added 155k jobs in Feb. Job market is hot. That will affect Dot Plot for sure ie rates cuts

jplug93

ADP green let’s see PMI

95Daphne

Thing that I've found though is that ADP has usually been too cool if there's a discrepancy. The best I can say here is we're really setting up for a warmish jobs report to be fully priced in at this point, and getting close to this week just winding up being a replay of how we opened January, which was not well.

ComprehensiveKiwi489

ADP jobs report was pretty hot today for both jobs added and wage gains. It has been wrong before though, contradicted by the BLS report a few days later.

Dmoan

CNBC talking head 5 months: markets will roar as Fed does 6 or even more rate cuts. CNBC analyst now: strong ADP employment # is good sign economy is strong and bull market will continue. 🤡

Impressive-Cold6855

With the hot ADP report, it's now time to cut rates and loosen financial conditions!!!

ubswiredadd

Smashing private ADP payrolls 184,000 vs. 155,000. Dumbass Ber still thinks recession incoming 😂.

ComprehensivePaint48

Bulls dead. ADP hot and February was adjusted higher as well. 

ComprehensivePaint48

ADP jobs report should decide our fate today. Good luck to both 🐻and 🐂. 

OrangeForeva

Yes almost every day. ADP and other news Wed morning. NFP Friday AM.

tropicalia84

Classic bear trap before ADP tomorrow. Should be sniffing 523 before open.

cryptowhale80

How did you get to pick individual stock? I have 401k through ADP and it does not offer individual stocks.

Zachmode

Anyone in sales knows that HR tech is hard to sell in this economy. It is the first thing employers cut money on. Every deal the sales reps are closing is being nickel and dimed by the clients trying to save every penny they can. It’s competitive, you have Paychex, Paycom, ADP, Gusto, just to name a few. I think the older companies like Paychex and ADP will struggle, newer companies like Gusto will see higher growth as they gain market share. I think it’ll be a bad earnings for them and a worse forward guidance.

Sweet_Mind_4385

Only thing up are my ADP Calls lol

ObviousExcitement105

37 year old millennial looking for advice on a recent CD that matured. I recently had a 1 year CD mature, should I reinvest into another CD for 5.45% for 1 year or should I put it all in VOO? I will not need this money any time soon so I don't mind locking up into a CD it necessary. I have about 25k in my Schwalb account in VOO, VCR, VXUS, Apple, Amazon, Waste Management, ADP, ET, Coke, and CIM.

blacksteveman

I requested a W2 correction through ADP/HR 8 weeks ago and havent heard anything back. Spoke to my tax accountant and they said that they can do the correction on their end and it would take a matter of a week or 2. ADP blows and so does HR.

dbgtboi

On paper: strongest economy ever, lowest unemployment ever In reality: there have been so many layoffs, the payroll processing firm ADP is now even doing layoffs

Strong_Audience_7122

That same jobs data that is revised lower every month and is diametrically opposite of the BLS's own sister household survey and the ADP payroll data? The jobs data that shows growth when every state except Texas reported increasing unemployment since October?

Extension-Comb-9260

last month ADP revised down 40%, this administration cooking numbers like crazy lol crazy market still sees US data as credible 💀

Automatic-Ad3616

Private companies added 140,000 positions for the month, an increase from the upwardly revised 111,000 in January but a bit below the Dow Jones estimate for 150,000, ADP reported.

potato111a

Okay okay we got some good ADP numbers

TrashPanda_924

On my radar is LULU, Rollins (they own Orkin), ADP, and Applied Materials. I have some other ones identified, but watching these four intently. I *really* like Rollins. Healthy dividend, wide moat, and stable.

nauticalmile

Bring that up with your employer. In many cases, the administrator has at least some choice in the fund options provided to employees. It’s often your employer/administrator choosing a default “recommended” basket of funds because they don’t know any better. I’m pretty sure I’ve had some kind of S&P500 index fund in every 401k I’ve participated in over the past 25 years, even going back to a small ~20 employee business with ADP as their custodian.

Monkey_Trap

ADP numbers are trash and no one takes them seriously

newprint

could you be more specific ? I wasn't aware that ADP published their stats (and I had my pay checks coming through ADP)

Significant-Ad3083

If all payroll providers could generate a combined report that would be great. ADP is a good proxy still

Salty-Fishman

And 2 month later they revise the number. Only number I trust is the one from ADP and is trending down.

fluffyinternetcloud

ADP got the same thing and paid $16 million. That’s one cent to ADP. They made $600 million in float last year.

MoFeaux

I had similar concerns a few years ago moving my 401k from ADP to a Fidelity IRA - it’s baffling that there is no transfer in-kind process between all brokerages/custodians like there is for typical brokerage accounts. But, I wanted it out of ADP for similar reasons as you and had them mail me a check. I wanted it to transfer as soon as possible to ensure it was in the market as long as possible. I have USPS Informed Delivery so I get an email each day with photos of my mail that will be delivered. I saw the check and knew it was coming on a particular day. I had my transfer instructions ready, but had an appointment that day so would have to wait until the evening to get the mail. Later that day I get home around 10pm and there’s no mail. Odd, they usually deliver it around 2pm, so I checked my security camera. Some jerk was driving around at night on the wrong side of the street stopping at every mailbox and stealing everyone’s mail! I’ve never had my mail stolen before or since and the one day it happens I’m waiting for a 6-figure check. I called ADP and despite having decent evidence of my check being stolen, I had to wait 10 days since they mailed it for them to cancel and cut a new check (which I received and transferred without incident). It was annoying and stressful, but at the end of the day being out of the market for ~1 month across my entire accumulation period is not a big deal.

watifurdadpulledout

1. Yield curve Inverted 2. Quits Rate Going Down 3. Manufacturing Index in Recession for 14+ months 4. Jobs Numbers Revised Down last 9 months, except December 5. ADP and BLS numbers don't match - Jan numbers in 2 separate universe 6. BNPL numbers not fully calculated 7. Commercial Real Estate Fucking Banks' Balance Sheets 8. Excess Savings from COVID is GONE!!!!!! - They will get 1 last boost from TAX REFUND This Recession is Coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

JustSayingMuch

Climbing: LYFT+10% VRTX META STNE MAR WELL TPR CSGS ALKS ADP

PaleontologistWise19

Had ADP employee stock left the company put a stop loss order in for a certain amount Ended up buying 200 shares of MSFT at 40 a share That was the single best investment I still hold Should have put all my proceeds from ADP into it and it would be a lot more Fast forward 10 years my wife works for MFST and has been investing fully into employee stock purchase program

Successful_Wedding82

the math is on my ADP account and shows every tax. State and fed tax is what took it. Its correct 

LaykeTaco

It’s a B tier company competing against bigger competitors like INTU and ADP. You can do better in the payroll space. Your money would be treated better in those… or in $SPY.

Strong_Audience_7122

Anyone watching the sharp yeild curve reversal? Historically a harbinger of recession. The Confrence Board Index isn't looking happy either. Why is the sisters household survey and ADP payroll data showing a decline while BLS estimates are so positive? I one analyst said the way seasonal adjustment, numbers of workers and hours worked were estimated by BLS changed.

AluminiumCaffeine

PAYC tonight, PCTY tomorrow should be interesting after they have gotten beat down even with strong jobs numbers unlike ADP/PAYX

watifurdadpulledout

ADP said 107K jobs for January but BLS said 353K which one do you trust? a private company or a clown government?

swolebird

Companies like ADP track payroll processing, and by extension hiring and firing by other companies, so they have direct insight into what companies are doing with staff levels. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/adp-employment-change

InitiativeBeginning

Sorry intern just counted 2X of payroll ADP

watifurdadpulledout

So you are saying that ADP is wrong. a private company that does payrolls is wrong over a government that benefits from higher numbers. Also the BLS revised its own numbers down 9 months straight. SO which one is more possible? A private company that is wrong or Federal Government? I know critical thinking is not your generation's strong suit. But Please **Think.**

BanditoBoom

ADP is one view. They process payrolls for companies. But not all companies. Not even most companies. There are others. Are ADP’s numbers only their proven numbers? Or do they have a formula to extrapolate to the broader economy? If it is their proven numbers then it isn’t even the majority of companies in the US, which means you have to take it with a giant grain of salt. If they extrapolate out to the broader economy then they are just as ripe with potential errors as any other guestimate.

gizamo

ADP is always less than half the BLS and DOL numbers, because ADP never has all of the numbers. Most businesses do not use ADP, mate.

watifurdadpulledout

Truth Hurts. ADP is much more trustworthy than this Administration.

watifurdadpulledout

Agreed there was a bigger difference before but in both cases I believe ADP over the Government.

orangehorton

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-08/adp-has-explanation-on-why-its-jobs-figure-varies-from-payrolls?embedded-checkout=true First sentence of this article. ADP reported 251k higher than gov did, more than the delta in your post

orangehorton

Do you say the same when the gov number is less than ADP?

BakerXBL

I see you also use ADP

Daddy-Eric

I'm just all in the wrong stuff. Not bearish, but thinking the market widens out and more stocks than 7 will do well. So I'm in mostly in small/mid caps which got hit on Fed comment and ADP report. I did score on Amazon, but everything else I got screwed on. In fall I did amazing on small caps, I still think round two is coming but not until interest rate cuts are in bound. I bet wrong in other words, lol

indieaz

Does job creation automatically mean inflation, though? How many of these are low paying or second jobs people have to make ends meet? ADP's data showed the pay gains are slowing, a trend that continued in January. [https://payinsights.adp.com/](https://payinsights.adp.com/)

ninkorn

>ADP: 600k\~ open manufacturing jobs in US Someone wake up Lulu and tell his lazy ass to apply for jobs

Malamonga1

Initial jobless claims every Thursday. Jolts and nonfarm payroll every month. ADP monthly but its irrelevant. That's about it

cutiesarustimes2

GOLDMAN: “.. We do not place much weight on the #ADP miss because of ADP’s negative correlation with BLS private payrolls since the introduction of the new methodology. We left our nonfarm payroll forecast unchanged at +250k ..” #NFP Hm

rygo796

Tech was also the only industry to lose jobs according to the ADP report so it's overstating any issues.

potato111a

ADP and cost of labor down

Sapere_aude75

That ADP employment was big miss, Chicago PMI not good either. Thinkin it might be long bond time.

OnceALoser

Did someone change the goalpost while playing. I thought bad news was good for the market. ADP employment came way below expectations but TNA is going down.

Lucky_Bet_9509

Markets thinking bad ADP numbers gonna precipitate rate cuts?

Retrovex

ADP missed by a big margin

_hiddenscout

ADP private payrolls 107K, Exp. 150K, Last 164K

FullPortPuts

Wow ADP was bad

ConcentrateOdd8190

Very good ADP DATA before jpow Ber fukd

ConcentrateOdd8190

ADP data in 4 minutes will send SPY to 491

banned_boyz

ADP pumped AH and earnings isn’t until tomorrow morning. Did something get leaked or what?

OGrande33

Don't sleep on ADP?

Silent_Cress8310

Do you believe the numbers? Why? Do you own shares of BABA or the ADP that is BABA? Do you remember Jack Ma at all?

Wild-Storage-1429

Didn’t you get them in an envelope from ADP?? Wow!

Sly_Wood

Based on the portfolio that looks like a Roth 401k especially since he said work. But yea looks like the funds they allow you to choose on ADP I think OP simply confused what they’re called. Def 401k

matthew_j_will

CNBC commentators and anchors made fun of the report all AM. The SPY futures were initially down 26 after release. They laughed about the job totals being revised down by 71k for Oct and Nov. 14 of the last 16 jobs reports have been revised downward. ADP has been a true report almost every month, even though it is ridiculed. The market is starting to see BLS numbers as a talking piece for the White House and ignore the many revisions. By the open, it was even and then shot up after factory orders missed by a mile. Let’s see if January’s report revises the 215k below the expected number of 170k.

animositisomina35

In November, the establishment survey found that 199,000 jobs were added which topped both the previous month’s gain of 150,000 and the consensus estimate of 180,000. upward. The Fed sees an unemployment rate of 3.8% to end 2023 which is what it has projected since September. This is significantly lower than the 4.6% projection that the Fed set in December 2022. [The consensus estimate for the nonfarm payroll increase in December 2023 sits just below the November number at 168,000](https://www.mtsinsights.com/post/employment-preview-moderating-but-strong-labor-market) meaning that the trend of “moderating but strong” job gains is likely to continue. Analysts have also matched the Fed’s view of the unemployment rate reaching 3.8% in December. [The ADP number was 164,000 with annual pay up 5.4%.](https://www.roi-nj.com/2024/01/04/industry/adp-private-sector-jobs-up-164k-in-december-annual-pay-up-5-4/)

mrbuhtkis

ADP data is never a good predictor of the jobs data that actually matters tomorrow. It’s never even close.

WillTheGreat

I think it's hilarious to see comments "it'll depend on the jobs data tomorrow" like those people didn't say the same thing the day before ADP and claim numbers like the market didn't show any volatility just because those same people missed a trade anyways.

_hiddenscout

US Initial Jobless Claims Dec 30: 202K (est 216K; prev 218K) Continuing Claims Dec 23: 1855K (est 1881K; prev 1875K) US ADP Employment Change Dec: 164K (est 121K; prev R 101K)