ADP

howdoiwritecode

I think your comment highlights a disagreement “institutional” and retail have. Institutional investors don’t believe they’ve lost any data in the shutdown. The government data actually kinda sucks and is constantly revised across all meaningful metrics. The news talks about it, but for institutions that’s 1 data source of N sources that come together to make the whole picture. For example, we still had the ADP report which is considered more accurate. Again, I don’t see institutional investors on the ground worried about tariffs. I do see a lot of noise from news and loud institutional investors who talk about it from a high-level, sort of how executives at technology companies talk about AI…

Bitter_Eggplant_9970

Any thoughts on Automatic Data Processing ($ADP))? I started looking into them this morning as Marjorie Taylor Greene has just disclosed a purchase. She seems to be one of the dodgier politicians when it comes to stock trading. [Their diluted EPS has consistently increased over the years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/ADP/adp/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted). Despite this, they're down around 15% over the last 12 months.

Happy_Discussion_536

Ber claims economy is falling off a cliff. Bond and credit boys, aka the smartest guys in the room, have not sniffed it out at all and they're the most concerned with defaults. https://i.imgur.com/eJpIQCK.png https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1NURM&height=490 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1NURI&height=490 Zero sign of it in earnings. Double digit earnings growth 13%+ with 92% companies reporting. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_111425.pdf Robust 3Q GDP growth forecasted for 4%. ADP shows slowing job growth as expected with peak participation and constrained immigration but zero sign of mass layoffs. There's just no evidence for ber thesis. Fed injecting liquidity in 2 weeks. Fully ending QT which ultimately means $40B more a month in asset purchases vs. last 8 months. Confirmed QE3 soon before crisis next year: >Steve Liesman: if you stop the runoff now, does that mean you have to go back to actually adding assets sometime next year so that the balance sheet doesn't shrink as a percent of GDP? >Powell: So you're right. The the place we'll be on December 1 is that the size of the balance sheet is frozen.... And because the size of the balance sheet is frozen, you have further shrinkage in reserves. And reserves is the thing that we're managing that has to be ample. So that'll happen for a time but not a tremendously long time. We don't know exactly how long but at a certain point you'll want to start to grow reserves, to start gradually growing to keep up with you know the size of the banking system and the size of the economy. TL;DR - Next year easily - SPX 7500, NVDA 240 and BTC $140,000.

Extension_Rub_6761

Being serious, I mostly meant that I can't believe we're looking at DoorDash data now when we at least still have ADP.

Substantial_Policy39

official govt data now that shutdown is over or ADP?

NobodyImportant13

I can't tell if you are just memeing or serious, but alas, we do have ADP data. It's released the first week of each month.

Extension_Rub_6761

Can't believe we went from BLS data to Door Dash numbers. Even ADP would be more reliable.

Swiftnice

So Calls on ADP now that they are official in charge of all the U.S. government jobs data? haha

meNriveBabylon

So basically yesterday's ADP "bad" employment report was just some hedge fund who didn't get a chance to buy in on last weeks' drop.

sudharsansai

I'm guessing the bull play is to close all contracts tomorrow in anticipation of the Thursday jobs report, which will likely be shit? Or go for lotto tickets joong they match the ADP numbers?

meNriveBabylon

Why would ADP publish some data today announced. Angry.

Happy_Discussion_536

ADP +42,000 in October. So-called labor spiral downwards nowhere to be found. Just mathematically guaranteed slowing of growth at peak participation and constrained immigration. A completely expected outcome.

DonaughtInspired

Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Slips; ADP Data Points to Softer Jobs Market https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-11-2025 Stocks were broadly weaker Tuesday, with tech shares among notable decliners, as investors weighed signs of labor-market weakness and a likely end to the government shutdown. The Dow industrials inched up, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite retreated. The dollar weakened, while silver and gold extended gains. U.S. bond markets were shut for Veterans Day. Late Monday, the Senate passed a spending package to end the stoppage. The bill now moves to the House for a final vote as soon as Wednesday and then to President Trump’s desk. The reopening is likely to unleash a barrage of delayed data, with the September jobs report likely to be among the first to be published. In the absence of official reports, investors have scrutinized alternative gauges such a report Tuesday from ADP. That report indicated the private sector on average lost more than 11,000 jobs a week in the four weeks through Oct. 25. Separately, Goldman Sachs has estimated deferred government resignations could help trigger a 50,000-job drop in total nonfarm payrolls for October.

Happy_Discussion_536

ADP +42,000 in October. So-called labor spiral downwards nowhere to be found.

AntoniaFauci

ADP implying -11,000 jobs per week

Reasonable_Roger

ADP weekly -11k. Rate cuts are back on the menu boys.

Me-Regarded

ADP jobs looking bad. Trend consistent with recession

Mjhudson65

ADP lookin ROUGH

DifficultyFuzzy5090

Did we get the ADP data today yet? Supposed to be out by 8:15 est, I don’t see anything, anybody got any clue?

LarryStink

ADP before open tomorrow. Might be the last dip to buy before ath

Sea-Standard-1879

If the retailer hires ands pays the seasonal worker, and that retailer uses ADP, the data is classified under trade/transportation/utilities. So that 47K certainly represents some number of seasonal hires in October.

weasler7

I’ll play devils advocate. Where are the mass layoffs? They weren’t in the ADP data. I doubt even if the shutdown continues another month it will have a substantive effect on growth. The market and economy doesn’t care about snap benefits. Trade war has been priced in for a while and there’s sign both sides want to de escalate. Just today China removed export restrictions on a few rare earths. Cost of living at record highs? US apartment rent prices are actually down. Just google “us apartment rent collapsing”. Fuel is cheap AF. Auto insurance rates are down substantially (recent WSJ article on this).

CraftedMany_

> As long as the government remains shut, the Fed must navigate without a compass. I didn't get that impression from Powell at the last Fed press conference. What he said: > [PriceStats, Adobe, ADP, the Beige Book] doesn't replace the government data, but it gives us a picture. Again, I think if something material were happening, if there were material developments, I think we would pick that up. [Source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251029.pdf)

brooklyndavs

Yes but there is no official BLS report that’s the problem. BLS is what the Fed acts off of as the rest (ADP etc) don’t capture the whole picture

LittleBoy1954

"build a strategy: Yes. I have a strategy in my trading plan that works. I tweak it every so often but not by much. "and blindly follow it without any additional support or indicator." That's right no technical analysis indicators. MA, MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, Gann, etc. However I do use a lot of fundamental analysis. I do that starting at 8:30AM (ET) by: Reviewing Asian markets activity (they're closed) Reviewing European market activity (they're mid day) Reviewing morning Economic Indicators (ADP, CPI, etc.) Reviewing AM earnings releases Fed upcoming activity Morning political activity and, especially, Morning futures market activity (e.s ES, YM, NQ, DX, GC, CL etc., ...and a few more things. By 9:30AM (ET) I'm ready to begin trading SPX 0DTE options. I generally let the market open for a 10-15 minutes and let it settle down. Then I look at Expected Move, IV, IVR and IV% and jump in with a Call and Put credit spread. Looks like a lopsided iron condor but in fact I trade the spreads separately. Some days the spreads are 1SD away from the money other days closer to 2SD. That's it.

EveryPassage

BLS reports are way more encompassing than private reports like ADP or Challenger.

Zealousideal-Heart83

I am wondering the same. I suspect 1. Layoffs in October do not reflect in ADP immediately - from what I see it takes 60 to 90 days (just going off of Amazons 3 months to find an internal project) 2. Lost 1 million, but there were 1 million and 40 thousand nee jobs (?) - sounds less likely ?

JoeyVottoS

Layoffs are generally bullish for specific companies. In the macro sense though, data (ADP at least) shows the job market is still strong. unemployment rate still below 5%, no sharp declines but a slow unwinding that hasn’t cause great concern per the fed chair himself. Labor participation is down however. Government shutdown ending will be a nice relief rally into the holidays

goofy-boots

I did see that, although it's pretty large it's actually not that bad in the grand scheme of things. ADP also added like 45,000 jobs

koalabearpoo

ADP is private sector only, Challenger is private and public sector

evil_timmy

ADP is private payrolls only, the report in the article includes public sector jobs as well which are obviously extra hard hit. That +42,000 disappears quickly when you add all the people Uncle Sam isn't paying.

IncrediblyDedlyViper

Didn’t ADP data released just yesterday show job gains? Am I imagining that?

ga643953

Didn't the 10 year yield shoot up last night because the ADP numbers were not as bad as expected? So which is it?

Optimal-Archer3973

Someone paid off ADP to post trump positive numbers within reason. They do not expect anyone to have common sense and understand that unless there was a position open there was no one actually hired.

sudharsansai

Does anyone know why the market dumped towards the end? I'm assuming the pump earlier today was due to ADP job numbers and Supreme Court tariffs case tone?

JerryFletcher70

ADP revises their numbers on a regular basis based on BLS data on business unemployment tax filings. ADP regularly states that they need the government data to support their data. You can see more details on how their numbers correlate and differ at: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/11/05/how-adp-employment-data-compares-with-official-bls-jobs-reports/

Forward_Guide_3505

I also don’t know if we can trust ADP’s reporting. I could see there being some back room “requests” from the administration to report things in a positive way. I have no evidence of this, but the way things are going it wouldn’t surprise me. I just don’t think we’re going to have any reliable economic data so just use vibes for now. LOL

jnas_19

definitely not that look, at FedWatch and the recent ISM/ADP data and the response from bonds

AnnHashaway

The Education and Health Services category was literally the second-highest gain from the ADP payroll numbers this morning. This reads like an LLM took the biggest headlines from MSNBC and mashed together a scaremonger post. \- TERRIBLE CPI report \- MASSIVE layoffs \- LIQUIDATING 401ks to stay afloat

subpar321

Not sure where you’re getting terrible CPI report, it came in at or below expectations. Jobs are down but ADP data was higher than expected, although still low. End of QT, rate cuts ahead, fed ready to inject liquidity at any moment when needed, QE around the corner. Buy assets, we’ll all be broke millionaires together as inflation eats our purchasing power one year at a time.

TexanFromOhio

ADP does not count governmental or other payroll company numbers...

catresuscitation

Indeed and ADP are using their own numbers. Indeed has fake jobs there.

buppiejc

ADP represents just a portion of the job market, approximately 26 million private sector jobs.

FrostyWinters

Trump: We do this the easy way or the hard way. ADP: We'll take the easy way.

Sea-Standard-1879

From the actual report: <"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced." Last month delivered a rebound from two months of weak hiring, but the bounce wasn't broad-based. Education and health care, and trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth. For the third straight month, employers shed jobs in professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality. Trade/transportation/utilities was the largest sector. This sector includes retail. Given that we’re coming up on the holiday shopping season, it’s not wrong to assume that many of those hires could be seasonal retail workers.

jamesdmoran

Today's ADP data looks potentially weak for PAYC's SMB customers going into earnings tonight: [https://flatcircle.ai/?ticker=PAYC](https://flatcircle.ai/?ticker=PAYC)

cakeandale

They are private but their data isn’t necessarily representative of the full job market - ADP doesn’t have a monopoly on payroll, so they can have a useful indication of how trends are going but they can only see data from employers that use their services.

jarkon-anderslammer

Isn't ADP private and hard numbers?

jasperCrow

Repo and reverse repo settling down, ADP data strong, gov about to reopen, tariffs about to get repealed. Whew so much good news I can’t get any more bullish.

taintedmask

No the report is from ADP. Job growth has slowed down but we don't need to worry about it just yet.

NotGucci

>ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 42,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 4.5% https://mediacenter.adp.com/2025-11-05-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-42,000-Jobs-in-October-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-5 Like I've been saying job market is pretty strong. I highly doubt we see a recession anytime in 2026.

Frequent_Optimist

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran reiterated on Wednesday that he believes the current level of short-term rates is too restrictive and is creating risks for the U.S. economy. “I think policy is too restrictive and that we're too far above where neutral rates would be,” Miran said in an interview on Yahoo Finance’s website. “Given the state of the labor market, I think that continuing to run policy that restrictive” is something that would “run unnecessary risks,” he said, adding that barring a surprise it would make sense to cut rates again in December. In the interview, Miran said that hiring data from private company ADP released earlier in the day was a "welcome surprise." That report said private employers added 42,000 jobs in October. The data came as the ongoing government shutdown has deprived markets of official data, including on the payroll front. \- Reuters

motorcycle-emptiness

I'd vote no. Too much macro uncertainty ahead. Oct payroll came in stronger from ADP but it's really not what people are feeling on the streets.

Gold-Bid-6169

Smci was a bust, AMD was a nothingburger - overseas get crushed, ADP job data points to rate hike more than cut - and we are green? Man, mainstream media sure can make narratives whatever they want. 2025 gives us the easiest access to data, yet we are the most gullible we’ve ever been. Pretty funny really

MikeMikeGaming

So they rigged ADP data to stop the liquidity crisis that was caused by all the people taking their money out of the market? Smart

BigBritches619

In September ADP showed private-sector jobs actually dropped by 32,000, but in October it flipped businesses added 42,000 jobs. That’s about a 74,000 swing in just one monthand tge first real increase in three months. It is not a huge hiring boom yet but it’s definitely a sign that things might be starting to stabilize again.

sugar_addict002

Omagine the coercion trump put on ADP. All data is sharpie-driven now.

fudge_mokey

"The ADP National Employment Report is an independent and high-frequency view of the **private-sector** labor market..." https://adpemploymentreport.com/ I don't think it includes government contractors.

BigBritches619

$OPFI In September ADP showed private-sector jobs actually dropped by 32,000, but in October it flipped businesses added 42,000 jobs. That’s about a 74,000 swing in just one monthand tge first real increase in three months. It is not a huge hiring boom yet but it’s definitely a sign that things might be starting to stabilize again.

fudge_mokey

I don't think the ADP numbers look at government jobs? It's just private sector?

kaapooj

ADP 42k job added in October -bloomberg

7253uy

Waiting for PMI to release to for bigger movement? I figured with ADP employment showing added jobs this month we would've already gone up a few $

primalmarket

Yesterday's Report: Job Openings lowest since 2021 - Sell, sell sell! Today's ADP Report: "Private payrolls rose higher than expected last month, labor market is fine!" This fucking country smh.

Alarmed-Albatross-32

FYI - strong ADP = no rate cuts. It sounds bullish but it might actually hurt matters.

bleepingblotto

market is rebounding today and reacted positive in equities to the ADP report. Risk-on! DFLI, has large ask walls upto 1.26, starting at 1.15

Alarmed-Albatross-32

ADP data just made a December rate cut virtually impossible.

GneissFrog

ADP data doesn't show the labor market is good. If your econ teacher expected you to flunk an exam, but you got a D-, that would be an upside surprise. Does it mean you are doing well? No, just better than expected.

DrCalFun

Rising today due to ADP.

bleesclees

Now the ADP say jobs are good, we don’t need to cut in December lol

MyCactusTeacher

lmao no one cares about ADP

onel1f3

What was ADP data ?

CarefulAd4757

ADP data means no extra rates cuts

itsgodsposterchild

I just reviewed ADP numbers while taking a shit and will now make my important business decisions of the day from the comfort of my bed, watching lines go up and down on my trading app. I’m practically a CEO

gratatatatatatat

Was ADP a nothing burger....what am I awake for....

SlfImpr

ADP Report: * Private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs in October and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year * Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest  * Pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced. ^(Source:) [^(https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-42-000-jobs-in-october-annual-pay-was-up-4-5-302605577.html)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-42-000-jobs-in-october-annual-pay-was-up-4-5-302605577.html)

jasperCrow

ADP data looks great. Ber are soooo fuk

yodamelon

Shouldn't market be uppies not downies for the ADP number? Manipulation.

GneissFrog

lol ADP shows the US is losing higher paying jobs and the upside beat is driven entirely by gains in low paying gigs. So much winning

Miserable-Force27

New jobs data crony bigly faked ADP so nicely.

saintmitchy

That ADP report is suspiciously good

Poundcake2RedVelvet

ADP shows k shaped economy lol, big business gains while small business busts

Frequent_Optimist

ADP Non-Farm : 42k vs 32k expected.

brennfl81

ADP +42K, Exp. 30K, Last -29K

GneissFrog

December is not a forgone conclusion ADP releases December is a forgone conclusion

PaulBaller24

ADP jobs report in 18 minutes

Rexultdis

ADP in 30 min for those who care

teamyg

Sold more TSLA around 450 (cost 442.5) and took profit before ADP

BigSeth

China cutting off export control already accounted for. ADP will be a nothing burger except to the downside. Corpo America is freaking out over a socialist mayor. The only thing that would really cause an upturn is if the Tesla pay package is approved, which I feel is a foregone conclusion and will only affect Tesla. So, yeah you’re cooked bud

CUbuffGuy

ADP matters cuz no actual job data right?

CUbuffGuy

Need this shit to dump. I was +35k at 8pm and I missed extended trade hours closing my puts by 5 min cuz I was shitting lmao. Now with this V I’m prob barely gunna be up 7-8k :( Prob take it before ADP and re-enter after. Tragic really.

CUbuffGuy

To wait for ADP or sell my puts before, hmmm

Pereise1

Futes fake, ADP employment change, PMI, and Jolts job openings coming out tomorrow morning.

mrhappyfunz

None of the after-market matters We get ADP job numbers at 8:15AM. The real game starts then

Ok_Reaction_1549

ADP leaked. -40k jobs . SELL. Liquidity crisis and Commercial MBS crisis SELL # 67

im_burning_cookies

ADP and ISM data 📈

Jbball9269

Sooooo only thing that’ll save us is another negative ADP print

Force_Hammer

ADP employment report 😰

thefxll

We’ve been so deprived of data I completely forgot ADP data is tmrw

7253uy

ADP employment and PMI tomorrow, more bad news? This might be just what we need to go green

Same-Brilliant2014

Nope, ADP jobs numbers gonna be bad tomorrow