AEO
American Eagle Outfitters Inc
Mentions (24Hr)
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American Eagle stock takes flight on earnings beat, inventory management (NYSE:AEO)
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Thoughts on AEO? American eagle outfitters. Looks good to me. Unusualwhales sent out a call option buy for next friday so i got 3. Then i looked into it 😂. Would love to hear what y'all think!
$30K Earnings Play for BBY, AEO, JWN, DKS, and ANF. Eating well or not at all 🙏
Thank you Macy's for the gift. I'll use it for BBY, JWN, and AEO next week 🚀
AEO to Buy Quiet Logistics for $350 million.
AEO is set to buy Quiet Logistics for $350 million
I am a Quiet Employee, and the company has grown exponentially. Is this a good move for AEO and something investors should be interested in?
DD-SUPER BULLISH ON $AEO($25) with a TARGET PRICE OF LOW $40’S 60%+ UPSIDE
AEO - American Eagle Outfitters down 12% after beating all earnings in 2nd record high.
BACK TO SCHOOL...BACK TO SCHOOL...GRADE 5 READING LEVEL REQUIRED. $AEO American Eagle Outfitters MOON 🚀
BACK TO SCHOOL...BACK TO SCHOOL...GRADE 5 READING LEVEL REQUIRED. $AEO American Eagle Outfitters 🚀
$GPS A Double - Only Paying for Old Navy Today, Fabletics IPO Implies Substantial Athleta Value (Dealreporter Article Out Recently), Full YZY Launch Imminent
$GPS A Double - Only Paying for Old Navy Today, Fabletics IPO Implies Substantial Athleta Value (Dealreporter Article Out Today), YZY Launch Imminent
The next big Retail play is American Eagle (AEO)
$AEO - is it a good bet to keep rising or fall after a 5 year high? 🤔
Mentions
I am one of those short term swing traders. Sentiment is the biggest indicator. Be it news or social media narratives; the narrative is always my leading indicator. Connectivity has really transformed market movements over the past 5 years. Sentiment is followed by increased volume and momentum. An oversold stock that has an increasing volume of buyers or has new upside momentum is something that leads me to pay attention. Then there’s technical analysis that I use to execute. (This all works in the inverse too). I’m big on charting. Seeing a stock test resistance levels on the up side or down side are important and ultimately the last step to planning a trade. I’ll give you an example. AEO and Sydney Sweeney. The news of her ad absolutely demolished the stock price. But it shined a massive light on an otherwise forgotten brand that was heavily over sold. I entered that trade under $12 with the knowledge that Q3 earnings were going to post just after the back to school new clothes buying ritual. Plus the stock was already in an up trend from its bottom. My entire thesis was to hold AEO till the Q3 report and sell the news of a positive earnings report after a new influx of retail buyers choosing to shop AEO for back to school. I was actually familiar with AEO as I was a buyer of their shirts prior to all of this because they were cheap and good quality. In any event, I held from the end of July till September when the Q3 report printed then sold at a 50% profit. I traded rare earths and precious metals along side and after that trade till October. I’m now doing a similar trade with Tesla using an inverse ETF, shorting Tesla from its high on November 3rd after news started to circulate heavily about Elon’s 1 trillion dollar pay package. My thesis being that regardless of whether the vote was positive or negative it was bad for the shareholders and that the stock was heavily overbought after its lows of 290 over the summer. While holding my inverse ETF I’m day trading a correlated ETF for the up swings to cover my short position using technical charting. I did the same thing with MSTR when BTC fell below 100k and then Nvidia before earnings, going short through an inverse ETF’s. This week I made the same inverse ETF trade on Google as I see retail piling into an overbought stock that’s up over 50% in 3 months. It’s about understanding the market dynamics, both psychology and price action, then using those to develop a strategy that gives you an edge.
The commercial is great and was an awesome response to AEO's commercial with Sweeney. Unfortunately their clothes are still ass for men.
Holy fuck Sydney Sweeneys dress. Calls on AEO
To clarify: a stop-loss is designed to stop your losses from becoming too big. So if you set a stop-loss limit order @ $11, it would sell @ $11 to stop you from losing more than $1.66 per share. A Limit Order is for buying or selling. You could set a Limit Order to sell AEO @ $20. Also - look into "Paper Trading" accounts. These are accounts that give you $100,000 of fake money to practice trading. Better to learn by losing fake money than real money. Some people - like the other guy giving you 'advice' on here - want you to put the same amount of $$$ into an index fund every month. This is a guaranteed way to buy at 52-week highs. Overall, it's often times hard to make money buying at the high. If you buy individual stocks such as AEO, it's because your goal is to have better returns than the S&P 500. Warren Buffet ALWAYS goes shopping when markets tankz and that's why he's one of the richest guys in the world. Have junior come up with a bunch of names of companies he's familiar with. Does he have Nike shoes, drink Coke and eat at McDonalds ? Then have him watch stocks of companies that he's already familiar with. Investing in individual stocks will eventually generate losses, but don't let that pour cold water on things. It's much better to lose 25% of $300 than 25% of $150,000 - which junior will eventually be investing many years down the road. It's great to learn young. P.S. Always buy AEO @ $10ish & sell around $20ish
Did you sell ? The CFO sold a bunch of shares around $20, and I sold some of mine at $20, too. It's often times risky to chase the hype.. occasionally it works out for some, but SS & TK are a lot of hype, and the CFO knew it. The stock went from $20+ down to $14. I bought a little back at $14.xx Keep AEO on your long-term watch list. Look at their all-time chart: don't buy high. Typically only buy under $15, and especially at $10. AEO also isn't a long-term hold. Typically sell at $20+, and/or when the CEO or CFO sells.
There are very few posts about AEO, and yours is one of them. AEO really seems to trade in a range over the years, and I would consider shorting it if it gets to $25 or $30, but buying around $10. Keep it on your watch list.
Unfortunately I did not. If I would have held onto the short a bit longer, I would have cleaned up. And my $26 additional short level was PEAK AEO price!
For fake meat to Shrek all focus must be on it unlike a few months ago when DNUT, OPEN & AEO were all competing with each other
Just went to the mall. Here's the scoreboard I counted. GAP: 34 customers (quick headcount). AEO: 13 customers. Levis: Literally 1 TLDR: Gap is actually packed and busy. It's not a meme, wtf.
Yah, I know. I saw it happen. There was a fuckton of options volume Friday. There was also almost 5k more contracts bought that match mine (25c's). Some regards decided to match my 20c's too. I was previously over 95% of the OI. \--- The rumors seem to hold true. I just went shopping at the mall. I stopped by a few places. GAP: 34 customers (quick headcount). AEO: 13 customers. Levis: Literally 1. It was actually really busy inside GAP & some shit was sold out / some shelves empty. No fucking way I'm papering this one.
Yes and no. They often do run on trends, but when they get enough traction they start to become sticky. AEO's ad campaign was insanely successful - but I don't think it was sticky. They failed to capitulate on the momentum / launch other campaigns to keep interest, etc, etc. This was evidenced by my friend who went to the mall last week. She reported quite literally a single customer in american eagle, whereas GAP was quite busy in comparison. GAP didn't stop. They've launched 3 ad campaigns in the last \~2.5 months and all considered highly successful. The reach / trends on them is insane. A lot of fashion relies on the executive team (more than the brand, trends, etc). Why??? A good team \*can execute\*, launch ad campaigns, start trends, revive brand awareness, etc, etc, etc. \--- Look at their current exec team - it's really good. Current CEO ran Mattel for \~15 years (GAP poached him) and was responsible for Barbie, Hotwheels and Fisher-Price. He's credited with 'reviving' those brands. GAP has 4 sub brands (GAP, Old Navy, Banana Republic, Athleta) - which suggests to me there is a ton of room to grow there too. \--- Basically - if you can gain momentum and keep it going you start getting repeat customers. They're doing that with a good exec team. That's what you want. IMO they're making GAP relevant again, and that is what matters.
The TLDR: Yes, that is what I suspect. The institutional flow suggests others agree with me (they wouldn't be punting 10mil+ into calls on Friday if they disagreed) \--- It is risky, my entire investment style is. If you're more of a 'fundamental' investor than catalyst trader look at the traditional metrics. GAP has a PE of \~9.3, AEO sits 14.3 and LEVI's sits \~14. From that standpoint alone it's arguable that GAP is undervalued. I'm arguing that market priced no growth on GAP with a PE of less than 10... but I think we saw some. So market mispriced it. People keep asking me why not LULU. "It's so cheap!". Lulu has a pe of \~11.5. The answer is simple - my friends don't shop there. GAP would have to see a \~20-25% price increase to match lulu. Lulu hasn't been doing any massively viral advertising imo -- I'm actually hearing more GAP than LULU around where I live. Lots of the girls are mentioning it / talking about it.
Have you shorted AEO again ?
cool. but 6x is antigrowth. lowest multiple in the sector while actually growing with a good balance sheet. GAP at 8.9, AEO 13x, urban outfitters 16.0x lululemon is 11x, levis 16x.
30+. Most recent one I agree with, but it didn't consider growth well... \> the same price action as AEO with the Sydney Sweeney campaign Sweeney wasn't sticky. It was a one time thing imo. Whereas GAP did 3 campaigns and all insanely successful. Don't compare GAP to AEO. Ads work - we all know this. Compare ad campaigns this year vs last, This years are over 100x higher impressions & interactions
Do you have a price target. I saw your DD and thought that it would/will follow the same price action as AEO with the Sydney Sweeney campaign as well. I’m probably gonna get in bc of fomo with the November 24’s. If they get itm I’ll roll out for January calls
See my updated post. \--- I could sell calls, yes. But I don't like doing that with options. I tend to simply use them for directionally leveraged bets. I've seen stocks move like 30%+ in days, even in fashion (see: AEO). If I sell shit I could get run over. I don't like that risk, so I don't assume it. I find it hard to quantify.
Nothing wrong with taking profits. Goodluck! \--- It's over 30 EOY imo. Most recent PT was 30. Tariffs are being fixed via supply chain changes (last ER's 10% of inventory was produced in china, but they project that it'll be down to 3% by EOY). The impacts will be lower than people originally suspected, short term effects. Also people are saying their stores are busy due to their highly successful ad campaigns. Don't compare it to AEO - compare it to their previous attempts. The ones this year have over 100x the average engagement vs last year & last years resulted in growth. Context: I diamond hands & actually averaged down hard.
HIMS and LULU are in a battle to see who can get the Netflix docuseries first. AEO doesn't even warrant an any attention. She had her moment, but not even enough to warrant a HULU docuseries. PUTS all around.
HIMS 58. AEO 13 SOUN 19 PUTS IMAX 33 RIVN 14.5 ONON 43 Calls
AEO just because Sweeney as green genes.
you clearly don't follow OP if you had you'd be rich and would dare shit on his MS paint TA the only one I've seen him call that didn't do great was one of those online trading platforms, Webull or etoro. And idk I stopped following it, maybe it did take off like he said. He's called a bunch though. AEO, Google, I think HIMS and a few others.
CAT 505 IMAX 33.75 RIVN 14.25 ONON 43.75 calls. AEO 13 HIMS 51 WULF 12.25 puts.
ONON 43.75, SHLS 10, RIVN 14.25 IMAX 33.75 calls WULF 12.25, AEO 13, HIMS 51 puts.
Can S Sweeny tweet a tiddy pic and save my AEO calls please? Pretty please w sugar on it.
buying LEVI puts cus AEO stole all their denim sales actual financial advice
No. Just plain old retail. Some of those stocks I think will suddenly take off soon. Some sort of already have. Look at AEO, it's down now but was on fore after earnings...I've been buying. GAP should be good too. But they load, accumulated, then drum up the buzz. So you gotta be able to pick a good stock all on your own. ADBE one I'm on. A little biopharm company that's taken off here lately. Doordash maybe, Lowes, HD, TGT. I mean idk if target is still wide of the mark but these are April low prices still for that stock and a 5% dividend at this price. They're not gonna talk you out of staying in speculative AI stocks, they'll just let you figure out that they were supporting the price action. Oil stocks, gold, silver, miners. Vale is an iron play. Nov is drilling equipment. Caterpillar is taking off. Utility conglomerates. Verizon, ATT. The rest of the market has been left to languish to dare dummies into full porting into AI, who think they have solved the riddle. People called me an idiot here in March/April for going 95% NVDA. But once I realized it was a trap...I mean they don't normally tell me when a stock is gonna tank. So lately I'm doing yeoman's work swinging smaller percentages and selling calls, I've got a big play or two but more important I know I won't get wiped out in a bubble collapse bloodbath. And if you don't have a clue....Cash is just fine. My natural instinct is the opposite of the herd so I play to my strengths. Just know if you don't have an idea of what the market value of a stock should be, or a price target you independently reached ,you're the mark. And when you realize you made a mistake and stuck around too long, don't wait 5 years hoping you really were accidentally on the golden ticket. Cut the losses. Cause 100% take it to the bank some of these companies are not going to recover. They only existed to fleece retail. TDOC and PTON come to mind from the pandemic. They're just now showing signs of life. And I know people who rode them all the way down because they were more invested in being right than their money. Just basic psychology at the end of the day.
Same lol, AEO was my best play yet it could be the same here but who really knows
Just took positions in AEO, CPB, CAG will wait for sector rotation then nut up!
is AEO done(American Eagle)? It's dumped about 20% since the commercial...
Hahaha, I wonder if that “unluck” regard is still holding. I saw a post talking about GAP running because of some ad that had way more views than the Sydney Sweeney AEO ad and how that was gonna be some sort of catalyst. A week later I saw a report saying most of the Sydney Sweeney hype was just bot driven discourse and that most people couldn’t care less about “good jeans”.
Short LEVI, cause other brands sold all jeans already (AEO and GAP)
It's hard to predict trends -- we won't know until the next ER's / until we see the raw numbers. One thing the market typically forgets about these type of events is the long tail. After a successful campaign peoples eyes are on it again. For the last 20 years everyone has been saying the gap is dead. That changed about 2-3 months ago. The thing GAP did right was they targeted the correct audience - GenZ women. It was so successful that basically every GenZ women is aware of GAP now. And they did it in a very gender inclusive way - which is very important in todays society. This is as compared against the AEO ad - who I chatted with a few girls who were really offended by it and said they refuse to shop there now. It's hard to predict these trends, yes. All I can do is chat with people and come up with my best guesses. \> It's a gamble All investments are gambles, all you can do is try to guess the best you can what is undervalued / has potential. If you don't like active investing -- just do passive like index and chill. \> But if they breakout, it becomes huge. That was a large part of my bet. I figured the odds of this were decently high after talking around (I literally had friends go to the stores / chat with employees & also a few go to college campuses and chat with women there). The general consensus I got was everyone was aware of them again and quite a few of my friends wives were actually shopping there again (who previously did not). To me that signals it could be a trend (we don't know). I bought the call options as the market isn't really pricing much volatility on GAP right now (I think that's gonna change next ER's) - in which case it's a lopsided risk vs reward matrix imo. I do a lot of options trading, so take it with a grain of salt. For literally everyone who doesn't trade options (in a serious way) -- shares are always a better bet.
Noticed a lot of people mentioning the stock should have moved up already, but the point is that it has been touted as one of the most successful ad campaigns this year and just by the numbers that are visible to the public, it's pretty clear that this is the case. For a campaign to hit such a massive reach, with impressions likely understated as of the latest figures (the CEO's interview on 8/28, only 9 days after the ad campaign, and even that is likely to not be live figures since a team has to prepare those figures before his public discussions) and not convert something significant is highly unlikely. Wall street may not recognize anything yet **because the campaign** occurred way too close to the recent GAP earnings and the reporting period was **before** the actual launch of the campaign itself. I also would not expect Wall street to be in tune with social sentiment - why did AEO jump so much after earnings instead of running up and pricing things more accurately before earnings? Also, isn't it the best time to buy when a stock is **trading at dirt cheap valuations?** Which GAP is? This reduces the risk significantly - so if you're in shares, it's a pretty solid asymmetric bet. Even with options, the IV is low and premiums are not demanding. I've held PLTR with an average of $12 til now, and the narrative was **terrible** for years and now everyone just wishes they've bought more - including myself. GAP isn't PLTR, but the point stands - the market can change winds on a stock once the story changes, and the story typically changes once earnings report something significant worthy of a narrative shift. GAP's story is already near rock bottom, but we have a wildly successful campaign that **would make any business envious** at the tailwind and soft data backing that there is product sell-through - why would this not be a reasonable bet? I'm not sure where your seeing things, but at least on tiktok people are going nuts over the video and the fans are absolutely the insane type to run to a business. I've been a part of a business that's gone viral on tiktok and the demographic was primarily women - and those viral videos generated significant conversion for a service ranging from $60-100. I've been watching plenty of videos and seeing plenty of online threads on people asking about where to get the hoodie, or their GAP haul, and buying items from the campaign. It's even lead me down rabbit holes to other mini trends that actually have huge engagement and have resulted in sell-through of other GAP related products. I think the other social media platforms may be a bit more subdued, but from what I can see on Tiktok the fans are nuts, just like with every other k-pop esq group (although they're more of a "global" group). I just did a quick google search on reddit and example discussion thread of people hunting for the hoodie drop - the fans will convert, the main uknown question is will it be enough to move the needle. By my initial DD & estimates, I believe so - and I keep hearing more promising news as other regards continue to dig up positive highlights that wouldn't be so obvious to wall street. [https://www.reddit.com/r/katseye/comments/1n061b3/katseye\_gap\_hoodie\_discussion\_thread/](https://www.reddit.com/r/katseye/comments/1n061b3/katseye_gap_hoodie_discussion_thread/)
Not in the states and not a woman. The original DD had good points. Yours also is quite comprehensive. The AEO impact was great because of the Sweeney “flash”. I’ve got to go to bed 😴. Cheers Paper.
From my understanding it more or less hit every Gen Z girl -- with celebs even replicating the dances on tik tok. The way it's been executed - the audience knows its gap. It also targeted the \*correct\* audience. See what the gen z girl mentioned here - it hit everyone she knows. Almost all the women I've chatted with more or less seemed aware of it as well. She mentioned her friends are upset inventory is still sold out and she has recently become a customer as well. They're the ones buying this stuff, not men. Most of the men I've chatted with had no idea what I was talking about. WSB's & the investing world is dominated by men -- not enough female representation here to get proper insights. I had to chat with girls irl. \> I'm speculating but I think the case with AEO was some kind of "solidarity" reaction from politically conservative consumer I tend to agree. It was controversial -- yes. I won't dive into the politics - I don't bring politics into my investing (I'm just here to make money). \> I don't see why that would be the same with GAP and Katseye, despite Katseye being extremely popular More about brand recognition with the correct target audience. With AEO I suspect a lot of people will move on (a girl I chatted with said she refuses to buy AEO them because of that ad). If your selling jeans to women -- you want to make sure they like you & the brand. I was discussing fashion with her and she thinks "the GAP is back". Her rational was that Gen Z doesn't remember that "GAP isn't cool" - as it was before their time. With the ad campaign push + major moves being done via advertising campaigns (targeting the correct audience, and well) - it's become popular with Gen Z very recently. That's the big difference I'm speculating on.
I like your thesis and analysis but I'm not convinced that an add with Katseye could ever have sparked the same amount, and more importantly, the same intensity of attention as was the case with AEO and Sydney Sweeney. I'm speculating but I think the case with AEO was some kind of "solidarity" reaction from politically conservative consumers. I don't see why that would be the same with GAP and Katseye, despite Katseye being extremely popular. God speed fellow regard
plus the AEO campaign probably had some boycott from the liberal side, while the GAP campaign clearly has not gotten on the radar for old / young white men on reddit for a counterOP campaign
The AEO stuff got a lot of notice in for conservatives - i dont picture a whole lot of affluent white women or truckers buying AEO. The gap stuff got publicity for young/liberal - i'd imagine the group buying this kind of stuff. I dont shop there now but it was affordable when younger
You heard about AEO because it was controversial and it also blew up in business/investing circles. The GAP campaign was larger with its actual target demographic, and was a more effective marketing campaign.
Devil's advocate: comparing the Katseye ads to Sydney Sweeney is apples to oranges. Lots of engagement on social media, whatever. When the AEO ad happened EVERYONE was talking about it due to the controversy. Fuck, even I heard about it, and I could not give less of a shit about clothes. Tons of people were pissed about AEO's ad, but any publicly is good publicity. GAP hasn't gotten anywhere near the same amount of attention from the general public regardless of what your social media metrics suggest.
For my Roth IRA, I buy one stock at a time to trade all in. If I don’t have enough confidence for that then I don’t buy. This year I have traded HOOD(great) and then AEO on Sydney (great). Now I am in NKE which did just ok. Constantly looking around me in real life to see what might pop on the next earnings. May be in all cash for months in a year while waiting on something good. For my 401k it’s all VOO.
True re: the DD part. Sydneys was much more controversial. GAPs hit their target audience (teenage girls) arguably better. This is the long term trend I see (going way way back 20yrs). Over the last few years it looks to me like GAP has been trending up in popularity, and AEO going (more or less) sideways. I should run some lin-reg over these charts / trends to be honest. It's very hard to visualize / see / act off incomplete data. Perhaps I'll do that over the next few days. https://preview.redd.it/1fwoykkgjksf1.png?width=1756&format=png&auto=webp&s=77daf3e2265928b66329f7f6b5dfc092fdbb25a2
It's not happening AEO is much smaller than GAP. Katseye is not Sydney Sweeney. Sydney Sweeney has bigger breast size than all and that is the only DD you will need
These guys are busting your balls. You've laid out a quite sound and logical case for playing a jump on earnings compared to a lot of the dd posted here. I think the only weakness in your argument is it being essentially an 'AEO popped off the back of a similar campaign, so should GAP'. Probably need to to go into the stores themselves, chat to the staff, get some anecdotal evidence of a lift in business activity, see if the product was enhanced in any way etc. to encourage repeat sales.
It's basically a super early ER's play. I don't think the market has noticed this at all yet (which is why it hasn't moved). Either I'm just early or wrong. I suspect we \*may\* see a similar upswing as AEO did on their campaign. We'll see all the results of this during the next ER's call. I bought due to super low IV on the options, so even super small movements make this one print or faceplant (UPNL) .
Since the moderators never let me post on main, I'm running this back: ONON and RIVN have already been accomplished. Still believe IMAX. Plus: AEO 17.00. WULF 9.50. RUN 15.50. GRAB 5.25 puts. 10/27 [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1nldrby/comment/nfgl54f/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1nldrby/comment/nfgl54f/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Not getting the reference or point you're making with the last bit but yes I sell covered calls. But I don't always sell them. Depends on the security, my conviction, market environment and my personal outlook for the market. Occasionally sell puts, buy puts, or LEAPS, but otherwise shares only. If I sell calls it's generally going to capture a sizeable gain in a relatively short time frame. Got called away on AEO recently for example and missed some of the spike but 28% on a position in one month is fine by me, and the premiums opened a starter position elsewhere right away.
Agreed. I was digging into the turnaround efforts and they seem serious about it within leadership and have engaged with top tier branding revamp partners. I’m not sure if the narrative will be a shorter pop in sales but it seems it’s part of a broad concerted effort to “save” the brand that has been viewed as successful (so far). Quite a few articles on Google about it, including fashion industry sites. I’m curious how sustainable analysts think it will be and how that impacts how they price it in. But even AEO is still trading well above where it was pre-campaign after coming down from the peak
No, quite a bit larger than that. Just an update as I'm at the bar right now lol. I had 3 people go to stores in person and talk to staff as well. Plus looked up trends (ie: terms people actually use / search for when buying things) and diffed the impact of trends against AEO's campaign. GAP had a much more pronounced spike in bullish terms. The tik tok videos also got half a billion impressions and "GAP katseye" was the most searched term on tik tok a few weeks ago. Typically hedgies start evaluating / looking at companies 4-6 weeks before their next ER's. The ad campaign had \*just started\* right before the last ER's (literally 5 days) so nobody really paid much attention to it. Their CEO has a really good track record of turning around "failed brands" and if they can execute this there will be other campaigns.
Guys, just saying. GAP is a legit play. You have \~4-6 weeks to monkey / average in before the hedgies realize. It's not on their radar right now. I just talked to 3 girls at the bar (ages 24-28) - all said it's super popular right now. 2 of them even heard of katseye. 40% of GAPs revenue comes from online sales. Online searches (google trends) spiked by 200-400%. In person searches / trends for "gap store" and "gap location" spiked by a staggering 800 & 400% respectively. It remained elevated for a month. Current P/E is \~9.5. They gonna hard beat ER's, analysts didn't price this in imo. JP Morgan analysts have PT's of \~28-32, imo 30+ after next ER's. This ad campaign was more successful than AEO's. DYOR. Been doing a bunch more DD on it, I updated my last post / yolo. Didn't wanna spam the forums
I really don't think so. It had elevated sales for \~1 month based off the trends I'm seeing. You report earnings every \~3 months meaning at least \~30% of next quarters er's will be higher. If you diff this against AEO's ad campaign, GAPs has been more effective (look at the google trends and diff the magnitude of spikes). The amount of people looking up "GAP location" spiked 800% worldwide. It basically means that the brand is gaining popularity (or likely is / will). Denim is popular again, and people buy what they're familiar with. It could be a one off event -- yes -- but so could have AEO's. Remember GAP is a "dead brand" with a P/E of 9.5. Compare that to lulu - it's got a P/E of 12.5 still, ie: \~30% more expensive. Lots of people I've been talking to have mentioned that the young girls LOVE GAP / denim / their pants right now. It's very hard to predict social movements in the younger generation / demographic -- but often these things are sticky for years. It could be the start of a new trend or a one off thing - we don't know. What it does show me tho - is that the new CEO (who has a good history of turning around failed brands from my understanding) can execute. He's been running it for \~2yrs and he's making good moves. That is \*very\* good for long term prospects. It also shows me that they can run incredibly successful ad campaigns - bringing brand recognition back. That's really good for these types of companies.
Apparently - yes they can. I posted some DD $GAP on wsb's, a few other guys have as well. The TLDR: Google trends suggests a massive 800% surge in "GAP location" searches and a 400% increase in "GAP store" searches. One investor went to his local GAP store yesterday and was talking to staff about inventory - they're running thru it quicker than usual. I'm doing the exact same thing next week myself. GAP is gonna have a hard beat - just like AEO did. 40% of their revenue comes from online sales & google trends around those also suggest massive 300-600% spikes on the ad campaign \--- [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1npjlwc/gap\_yolo/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1npjlwc/gap_yolo/)
the tldr: they did a massive ad campaign after sydneys (AEO) and the impressions are not neglible. They got over 3x the hit rate, and (the guy who posted the origianal DD) more or less said inventory was sold out across the board. I'm personally verifiying in person next week.
Thanks, the people have been enjoying it. Enjoy the tendies! I only made like 5% as the 30% dip on my options spooked me. If you bought the dip you'd have basically doubled up tho. \--- I think everyone has made money on every single one of my plays - sans OPEN (unless you held to $0 like me) and also MU (which is down like 3% in shares, so really a no-story) if you bought at the same time I did (and took profits). \--- This one is more or less "unknown" to me & I always miss the early entrances. So figured I'd punt early this time before performing all my full risk analysis (which tends to take weeks). I liked the DD & the exact same catalyst resulted in massive beat of AEO. GAP has been doing it better (I think) though based off the DD I read. Much higher impression rates, they literally rode off the sweeney hype, and the videos are getting hundreds of millions of hits.
for raw numbers: the GAP ad on youtube got over 3x the number of impressions / views vs the AEO one. The numbers / results on tik tok suggest hundreds of millions of searches - of which people are adding "GAP" to their query
Anybody who did that with $AEO doubled their money. If it’s stupid and it works, it isn’t stupid.
AEO got people investing in boobs
AEO sales were down 1% year over year
I'm 49 and didn't see either ad, but someone else posted GAP DD a week or two ago and mentioned that the girls in GAP's ads actually looked hot in the clothes. So I checked out the ads and goddamn those clothes are amazing and unlike the AEO ads are actually flattering on those girls. And now I am like "I need to go to GAP and get some new jeans". But idk if a 49yo wanting to buy the stuff is good or bad for the stock, lol!
The difference between GAP and AEO is that the clothes in the GAP ad actually looked hot.
I'd avoid QQQ at the moment. The market is so topheavy with not just mega cap but also a smattering of bubbleish companies. I think we probably have a recession not too far off but short term they'll rebalance, call it a sector rotation, and the overall market won't beas affected. Some companies that have been lambasted will suddenly be just fine without AI and oh hey, look at those fundamentals, ratings upgrades etc. Applied Materials just jumped, look at AEO, plenty of others. Plus tech isn't everything. Once a decade or so the world is reminded oil is may not be ideal but is at the moment necessary. I'd go with a more broad market etf or fund, VOO, FXAIX, many others. And a smaller hedge. Better dividends too. 10% pullback in QQQ seems like it could happen, but if that's where you are in a year and it trades sideways for a bit you'd start sweating. Just my two cents. I have been swinging some oil positions, selling calls or just top of the channel. It's yeoman's work but it adds up and they behavea bit more. The calls probably not necessary but on an apparent spike when I see another shiny object I do sell them with no ragerts. I figure the odds of a sudden spike there are not unreasonable, so you could very well catch that upside.
I haven't looked on other platforms as frequently, but at least on tiktok a lot of commentators are looking at the $GAP ad as almost a rebuttal to the "white supremacy" controversy that the $AEO ad drummed up. It's like more coincidental, but the prevailing narrative goes like: The $GAP ad has a global girl group with girls from all ethnic backgrounds / cultures Dropping it near the same time as when Sydney Sweeney is getting her backlash on the white supremacy The song lyrics from the $GAP ad including "it's better than yours" Campaign's been looked at very positively in comparison to $AEO because of this, and it's been called online as the "Denim War". Mainstream's important and all, but honestly think Gen Z / Tiktok is more influential than any mainstream outlet could ever be, and the audience that consumes social media at this pace is more influenced by what they consume than the mainstream audience.
IMAX $29.75, AEO $17.00, WULF $9.50 puts. ONON $46.50, RIVN $15.25 calls. 10/27
IMAX $29.75, AEO $17.00, WULF $9.50 puts. ONON $46.50, RIVN $15.25 calls. 10/27
Consumer discretionary , especially clothing works in cycles and you need to catch them at the beginning to make a true thesis. At max it can go to 30 , thats like a 35% return in 1 year, not more than that. All your indicators are cyclical . Leases are a huge cost and have increments baked in with improving economy. Ad campaign revenue will not move needle like AEO which is more a smaller base and more targeted. GAP add is very generic to trigger the kind of response you see for AEO. More likely to stay in range than burst out. The bigger point you need to see is there is softening in CD cycle which is the base for rate cuts
Im bullish on Disney. Bought my first shares in years today, this will be great for the stock just like Sydney Sweeney was for AEO. The saying "go woke go broke" has held true. I know that's not a popular idea on Reddit or this sub. But we're taking stocks and not our political opinions and this is gonna bring all the conservative parents back to disney meanwhile the liberals aren't leaving.
One thing you failed to consider in your DD is $AEO is it got a lot of mainstream publicity and seeing the beat a lot of regards who had been watching the stock because of the controversy bought in, it wasn’t just purely the earnings numbers causing the price action. $GAP doesn’t have this in common. All that being said, Godspeed regards.
Honestly not much of a reason - the earnings hasn't been officially announced yet to my knowledge. The 11/20 date everyone is throwing around is the expected date - and from my experience when an earnings is far out and not officially announced, it can change a bit, so I wanted to give myself some buffer time. It could rise with a bullish Q4 overall market rally and sustained price upwards after earnings like $AEO from an improved outlook. May get some more closer to the actual earnings date - but realistically Dec ones are probably fine and I might get some of those closer to earnings. On a side note, I am also trying to risk manage and not full degen / full port into this because although the DD is compelling, life is never 100% and there are risks I've identified that are very real.
If GAP somehow shoots up to $28 before earnings, I may re-evaluate / trim - cause I don't see what news could drive that aside from the entire market ballooning up or GAP management announces guidance early because they have good news. As of now, I do not only because the reinvigoration efforts prior to the Katseye campaign were showing signs of working, with flat/small YoY revenue increases (which is good considering they were pretty flat / going lower if you look farther back in the past). The KATSEYE campaign being only \~a month old and initial signs of sell through being great helps build the case that Q3 rev / EPS has a good chance of surprising. It also helps that the valuation is already in the gutter because of Q1 earnings / the tariff scare. The virality will slow down (as it did with AEO), but with new eyes & new customers - they'll have a funnel to turn a bucket of the new customers into repeat customers / capture their attention with other lines. AEO mentioned that in their earnings and in business - I think this is fairly ubiquitous. I think the campaign itself will be able to carry them in the medium term - but I don't see myself holding in the long term because retail is not a sector that's easily predictable and products are practically a commodity.
Lol - I didn't even know what Citrini was before you said it. Their section on GAP in their viral marketing article was barely a paragraph... They didn't talk about valuations and all they talked about was GAP being one of the companies that have done viral marketing and a bunch of charts showing stock prices and trends... They didn't investigate GAP's current business, it's historical financial performance, expected price targets with data gathered from $AEO's earnings call, estimate potential impacts based on what we know of their business with reasonable assumptions.. it's not even close. Though it does make me feel better that there are other people who've observed this type of play in the markets. I'm sure other people have had the idea, but me researching this was compiling from GAP / AEO's earnings reports / quarterly calls, chatgpt + gemini to crosscheck, and watching countless tiktok videos... and my general background in finance / accounting to provide an estimate.
Probably hold out for earnings. Probably add in weeklies / short dated ones as we approach, assuming premiums are cheap (which I think they will be). If we get an AEO like move, should see a nice % return and probably 1. Sell all and take the nice profit Or 2. Sell to cover cost basis, let it run a little off momentum and possible multiple rerating like $AEO experienced Depends on what management says - but 1 is the likely choice
I agree that it won't pump as much as $AEO. In the write-up, GAP is significantly larger of a business and the needle has to be much larger to move. But based on my assumptions (calculated in the write-up), think it can move enough.
Yep!! I've talked with a couple of people who noticed the same virality of the campaign and thought there was potential for $GAP to pull an $AEO, so dug in some more to see if this thought made sense
Cue the AEO pump. Just started getting the Sweeney ads on reddit
I think it’ll pump but not as much as $AEO. Sydney Sweeney was mentioned by Orange Man and that’s why it pumped so much.
Honestly not much of a reason - the earnings hadn't been officially announced yet to my knowledge and I wanted to give myself some time. Could rise with a bullish Q4 overall market rally and sustained price upwards after earnings like $AEO from an improved outlook. May get some more closer to the actual earnings date
Hey Greg - great to hear from you. The stock did have a slight run-up from early August lows which I considered - but I think that may have been from anticipation of their Q2 earnings and that they were at rock bottom multiples (commentary from management about tariffs, similar to why $AEO dropped off) I did think about the CC data scraping, which is why I think they also rallied in August for Q2 earnings seeing that $GAP is still selling well. Also why I started a position early for the next quarter while the valuation remains fairly low, as from my observation - usually the earnings run-ups happen a little closer to the actual earnings date. I also think it's still relatively early for the institutions to make big enough moves to shift the price significantly as their Q2 earnings just happened. I don't think that the stock was fully priced in as the CEO did mention that campaign and it's success - but we didn't see any of the numbers reported yet back in earnings. The date of the campaign was way too close. I've worked in the Finance / Accounting industry in NYC and from my experience, quarterly reports are heavily scrutinized and pulled together in advance for layers of review (so guidance as well) - which makes me think that their current guidance won't include the impact from their campaign. When the $GAP CEO mentioned the success of the campaign, it had been live for about a week. As far as I can see now, it seems like the metrics of the campaign is far more successful than $AEO's already and the GAP CEO's claims were only reporting that the Ad had 1/5th of the impressions $AEO claimed on their earnings. Could be wrong, but I think the timing of when everything has happened plays well into the thesis that it's not yet priced in. The valuation is low enough that if it doesn't fully beat and surprise like I think it does - won't be too hurt about it.
If you're serious, I can see that to be honest lol. I've called some GAP stores so far and probably will continue leading up to Earnings. For now, I'll just have to follow the soft data I see from socials / google / their site since it's the only concrete thing I can observe. A lot of this is reminiscient of how $AEO looked as well during their ad campaign which makes me feel better
I would say this position was bit more detailed because I myself was also a skeptic and it also falls in a sector I don't like holding (retail fashion), just because the trends are shifting and there's a lot more uncertainty. This time around, I wanted to observe the conditions that made $AEO pop and see if $GAP could potentially have a similar run. I also did think about Abercrombie's revival back in the day. I don't think GAP will necessarily pull an Abercrombie, but I think their KATSEYE ad will bring in a significant enough number of new customers that can cause a better than expected EPS/Rev on Q3 & a rosier outlook - similar to $AEO. Read through the $AEO earnings transcript and was surprised that their numbers were still quite meh for their quarterly report, but expectations were so low it didn't matter. I'll caveat with the fact that $GAP's conditions are not identical, but similar enough with a low enough valuation that I can get behind it.
Got in for the same reasons as you after $AEO earnings. Was wondering why going for the 1/16/26 call and not 12/19/25?
Yes, your wife represents all of GAP's potential customer base from this ad campaign. If you cared to step beyond your bubble of you and your wife $AEO's earnings transcript stated their ad got over 40 billion impressions with 700,000 customers purchasing something from the collection. Obviously impressions =/= people, but that's a conversion of less than 1/100th of a percent. What ad campaign do you know that successfully converts 100% of everyone who views it? If you're going to make a bearish argument - I'm all for it, but this is just lazy. The products being shown as "sold out" on multiple instances of me checking the site, the Gap haul videos online, and the obsession the younger crowd has with groups like KATSEYE and the dozens of other actual hard pieces of comparable evidence outside of your one anecdotal opinion clearly shows that there are women buying. No one I know shops at AEO either yet they somehow managed to go from an expected 5-6% quarter over quarter decline and pulling full year guidance to flat revenue and an upbeat outlook going into Q3/Q4.
Does your wife shop at AEO
Just a heads up - I don't think the significant price action will occur until earnings. So you have time. Downside risk should be relatively low since P/E is in the gutter, but theta might eat into your calls a bit while we wait. There's a chance that we could see a small run-up into earnings if institutions get some early CC data that supports a potential rev beat or if they get some data on the impressions / estimated conversions from the campaign. I pulled this just from using the apps - I'm sure some funds somewhere covering the stock can come to a similar conclusion before their earnings. $AEO has a small run up before their massive 40% post earnings move
*TLDR:* *- $GAP is trading at low valuations with low expectations and decent short interest, leaving less room for downside and more room for upside.* *- They have an insanely successful ad campaign running currently for Q3, which has arguably outperformed $AEO's campaign. $AEO's campaign contributed to the stock moving 40% after earnings and had a similar valuation / expectation as $GAP now.* Haha sorry - just wanted to provide as much info as I could.
Yea, I think this is more of a medium-term trade to play off current market sentiment being low & the catalyst of their mega-viral ad campaign causing a beat / rosier outlook than Wall Street's currently expecting. The low valuation (TTM P/E, Forward P/E), high short interest, and poor sentiment make it an attractive play where Wall St is potentially overlooking a cultural phenomenon that'll drive up sales of a brand unexpectedly. Fashion's too tricky to hold for a long - but low expectations with an EPS/Rev beats + improved outlook make for a great potential price move post earnings (hence the $AEO comparison)
*TLDR:* *- $GAP is trading at low valuations with low expectations and decent short interest, leaving less room for downside and more room for upside.* *- They have an insanely successful ad campaign running currently for Q3, which has arguably outperformed $AEO's campaign. $AEO's campaign contributed to the stock moving 40% after earnings and had a similar valuation / expectation as $GAP now.*
If AEO pumped after earnings, I dont see why GAP cant either
I think they'll move similarly like $AEO once earnings comes up, with a potential run-up beforehand with institutions that potentially have access to credit card data. They have a viral ad campaign that is possibly more effective than what $AEO did with their Sydney Sweeney campaign and they're current trading at <10 P/E with low expectations
Isn’t the majority of their clientele senior citizens that eat in their stores? I know they sell stuff like mac n cheese in retail stores (great stuff btw), but can online traffic drive in more revenue? AEO is selling more jeans. What’s CRBL going to do, sell more fried breaded okra (good stuff btw)?
WULF puts $10 AEO $17.50 puts GRAB puts $4.75 ONON $45.75 calls. RIVN $15.50 calls 11/3
LLY buy this morning was so easy on new data for orforglipron. Though I still don't know why AEO is up it's easily my most hated stock.
GRAB is inflated, but is a good long term. Anything between 5 and 5.35 is a fair price. ONON is a long term buy at anything under 45. LULU will never bounce back. (It and HIMS are fighting to see who gets the Netflix docuseries first) AEO "will not replace" it. I said this at 1.50, but CGTX under 1.75 is a good price for long term. A hung amount was bought by insiders at 2.05, when it was 2.48, so, of course, people sold. Definitely something to monitor.
AEO is such a piece of shit stock I don't know how it's green day after day
AEO looks like its about to drop a dollar
buying puts on AEO should be the right move but I'm feeling anxious about these