ALAR
Alarum Technologies Ltd.
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$ALAR, profitable and growing AI company with 97m in market cap?!?!
5 Cybersecurity Stocks To Watch In The Race To Secure Communications ( $SWISF, ALAR, VHC, BB, HUBC)
5 Cybersecurity Stocks To Watch In The Race To Secure Communications (SWISF, ALAR, VHC, BB, HUBC)
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$ALAR going all in, $19mm market cap and tiny float. Mid $2s, Max fear level has set in from $8 a few days ago
"FBI seizes NetNut domains tied to Popa botnet, forcing Alarum service pause and 53% premarket plunge" \-Finviz - [https://finviz.com/stock?t=ALAR&p=d](https://finviz.com/stock?t=ALAR&p=d)
$ALAR, worst case scenario priced in below $3
Top holdings right now: WMT, QXO, FEIM, ALAR, and ASPI. Also a fair amount of cash
After being in the doldrums for ten months, and having an investor lawsuit against them, ALAR has roughly doubled over the summer (now $15). Their earnings don't really excite me, a few customers are driving increased revenue. But hey, at least it might not be a tax-loss harvest. Same goes for HCC if that sustains its rally.
If data for machine learning is the new currency proven by deepseek and less the models and hardware then take a look at $ALAR based in Israel. They have a platform to collect data for ai at the isp level and more.
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** ALAR **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Strong Buy **Reasoning:** Alarum (ALAR) provides web data collection and AI-powered data insights. Their "NetNut" product boasts a 100% success rate in bypassing anti-scraping measures, a massive advantage in a rapidly growing ($17B by 2030) market. A recent Fortune 200 contract signals significant growth potential. Financials show improving profitability and positive cash flow. The author is long 500 shares at ~$12.6. **Caveat:** Author's projections should be viewed with caution. Not financial advice.
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** ALAR (Assuming this is the ticker. The original post doesn't specify) **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Strong Buy (author's opinion, not financial advice) **Reasoning:** Alarum provides web data collection services, a growing market projected to reach $17B by 2030. Their "NutNet" product boasts a 100% success rate in bypassing anti-scraping measures, a significant advantage. A Fortune 200 company recently signed a 6-month contract with potential for renewal and expansion. Financials show improving revenue, gross margin, and positive free cash flow. **CEO's Podcast:** [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te7b7MEqhBk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te7b7MEqhBk) **Caveat:** Multiples-based valuation is considered unreliable by the author.
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** ALAR (This is implied, not explicitly stated.) **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy **Reasoning:** Alarum is a web data collection company whose "NutNet" product bypasses anti-scraping measures, giving it a competitive edge in a rapidly growing market projected to reach $17B by 2030. A Fortune 200 company recently signed a 6-month contract with potential for renewal and expansion. The company is projected to become profitable in 2024 and achieve 10% annual growth for the next five years. **CEO Podcast (For more info):** [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te7b7MEqhBk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te7b7MEqhBk) **Author's Position:** 500 shares at $12.6 **Disclaimer:** This is just one person's opinion and not financial advice. Do your own research. Remember that even "white men can jump," but sometimes they miss the shot.
If this earnings report had come out when it was at $45, I think it would be genuinely disastrous for ALAR's long-term prospects. Even though I rode that from $27 to its peak, it was just a swing trade based on hype. But after reading the transcript the stock looks very much oversold at this point. Revenue only up 27% Y/Y but Q2 adjusted EBIDTA up 3x, Q2 GAAP EPADS beat by $0.24 (more than double the analyst expectations). I suspect one of their new customers in Q2 is Meta given that A.I. model training requires quality data and LLama has waived off all fees to be open source. Given that Meta is acting as a loss leader in this department, they need to offer a superior product in concert with the network effects of their overall environment; avoiding GIGO is essential to avoid the pitfalls Gemini ran into. $20-22 would be a fair price atm.
If this earnings report had come out when it was at $45, I think it would be genuinely disastrous for ALAR's long-term prospects. But after reading the transcript, the stock looks very much oversold.
ALAR implodes and PSIX explodes on the same day. Volatility really is something.
ALAR (Alarum Technologies Ltd). Israeli stock. Into data scraping. Somehow, I thought it was the way to go, and bought it. It tanked shortly after.
Similar in terms of the last part, but there's a combination of geopolitical fear and speculative nervousness over the robustness of ALAR's business model. The threat of a true regional war with Iran is making investors apprehensive in a way the occupation of Palestine isn't. Having its headquarters in Israel makes ALAR *very* vulnerable to disruption. It was quite an expensive stock P/E-wise, so I don't expect it to rip back to $45 any time in the future.
CLS is below $45 from a height of $63 despite beating revenue and EPS estimates while announcing its new storage controller. It's on the verge of breaking into oversold territory for all periods going back 6 months. ALAR is in a similar spot. I wouldn't do anything until this volatility subsides.
I don't have a good link, but Investtalk was talking about how overweight hedge funds have been in big tech. Any sign of a rotation and they were basically going to have to sell the only thing they had to sell, tech, to rotate into the new sector. I don't always fully understand the mechanics of flows in the market, but it makes sense in the context we're seeing the mass liquidation of a few big winners to free up cash to buy small cap and value. There have been more voices calling out the huge growth forecasts of AI as being too optimistic, and it wouldn't surprise me if AMSL earnings kinda dampened those estimates too. They weren't bad, just not meteoric. Kinda like what happened to ALAR when they announced some numbers the other day.
(ALAR) With the highest short rate I ever seen
Sounds plausible. Holding the stock for a bit longer, I’ve seen such crazy decreases for ALAR quite some time. However, luckily, it recovered with almost the same velocity. Fingers crossed for letting this happening once again
I'd been eyeing ALAR (227M mkt cap) but didn't pull the trigger and then eyed it rocket up... Today it's down -25% after a fine looking earnings report. Anyone else see this as an opportunity to jump in, or am I missing something troubling?
24% drop for Alarum Technologies (ALAR) after report recording revenues https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alarum-estimates-record-revenues-17-124500003.html Small cap play
What is the deal with ALAR? grew 1.8k% since last year? Anyone know?
Oh look, investors woke up and realized there was nothing wrong with ALAR.
Other AI stocks I hold are PLTR, ALAR, CRWD, AMZN, and GOOG. I also have positions in CLS, VRT, and PSTG.
> Do you look for specific time frames to determine a lasting correlation or was this rather noting that a regime ended and backing away? The former. I started backtesting mid-February when CLS' volume grew enough to see meaningful price swings. First I had to establish the beta then went up the ladder: individual announcements to check whether CLS' move on that day constituted a sigma event -> regression analysis against individual companies -> regression analysis against the NASDAQ composite and NASDAQ 100. Re-calculate every weekend for the previous week, month, and timeline back to February to see if the correlations are fading or strengthening. > Do you do this for specific tickers or track a few universes? Depends on the sector. Like we talked about elsewhere global shipping is affected by the same exogenous conditions, but the individual companies don't interact. So there I just track the universe indicators like change in shipping rates, etc. In tech, it's a case-by-case basis. I did it for ALAR and CLS as they benefit handsomely from the successes of bigger companies that will be their future clients. > I've been adding flows to calculation commodity pricing to my trading engine lately (doesn't work), but operate on far longer time frames and haven't looked at volume or such technicals, besides e.g. reading Andrew Lo. Flows can be good if the program distinguishes between institutional vs retail. The former will act on inside info when investing in companies that don't have obvious appeal, making asset flows predictive.
CLS, ALAR, GAU and SAND. CLS has been a workhorse for the last six months, but the fundamentals of its price movement have completely disintegrated. That's a warning sign too big to ignore, but I might reopen a position if it drops below 50 RSI and the FOMC meeting proves encouraging.
I will give you four accounts to follow (different level of expertise on the name and general knowledge in investing level) and one to avoid: this guy basically is a Jedi (he runs a fund) u/nicholasp66 (on twitter). Also, you need to avoid ideas that are too complex for you $ALAR is one (personally speaking, I don't think I can understand it, it's some software company that is up like \~1,000% in 1 year and I suspect he is out of this name. Why? He seems to have stopped tweeting about it). Basically go read this thread: [https://x.com/nicholasp66/status/1791135393447813497](https://x.com/nicholasp66/status/1791135393447813497), hopefully you can understand and appreciate the level of research/understanding on companies he invests in. this guy has a big position and he does ground work research: u/natillack (on twitter) he seems like a regular dude with a normal job and he basically does ground work research like going to different stores to see they carry $SOWG candies and he purchased them to try to see if he likes different flavors and what not. Obviously, only good for this name so far and he hasn't talked about other stocks as of yet. idk who this guy is but this guy seems like he has seen shit and he is experienced: u/spaceX_cowboy (on twitter) [https://x.com/spaceX\_cowboy/status/1794352648440987744](https://x.com/spaceX_cowboy/status/1794352648440987744) this guy is a student. Obviously, he is not there yet but he has a lot of potential u/DMetropolitan (on twitter) [https://dametropolitan.substack.com/p/sowg-a-potential-freeze-dried-candy](https://dametropolitan.substack.com/p/sowg-a-potential-freeze-dried-candy) this guy needs to be avoided: [@KyleAdamsStocks](https://x.com/KyleAdamsStocks) he is a salesman and he basically tweets nonstop about $ALAR and basically tries to create the FOMO in you but I don't think long-term he is good for your account balance in your investment portfolio. Just a general tip is to go through who they follow (except the last guy) and follow them as well (Twitter used to let you see the full list of people they are following but since Elon has taken over, they only let you see a portion, it's fucking BS but it is what it is). Best of luck and hopefully, you guys can stop YOLOING on options (some of you guys at least) and able to vote correctly and see a bigger picture.
u/AP9384629344432 u/_hiddenscout I ran a quick screen idea on stock analysis... 5yr revenue growth: over 20% Net Income: Under 0 Forward P/E: over 0 basically looking for unprofitable companies that are at least on the precipice of profitability as a pretext for undervaluation. A few names popped out at me: ALAR and ASPN are on the list, two names we've mentioned. EVH is one I'm going to look into more, they help optimize specialty care in hospitals. I'm not sure what else I'll get out of it, but it is a start.
Yeah, there are a lot of zombie companies in the Russell 2000 and S&P 600. In general, you have to be extremely selective in small cap companies and at the moment it's better to select them individually. DESP, TNP, CLS, GCT, GAU and ALAR have paid off handsomely since the beginning of the year without being weighed down by dead wood in most ETFs.
I added a little ALAR yesterday, but happy to buy more if given the chance. I also like EVVTY, KNSL, and HCI for longer term holds at their current levels.
But with it, ALAR is a money-making machine. 😎
> You follow the Koala on Twitter I see Koala? What koala? I never encounter animals in my line of work. And certainly not ones who know their way around a mine. 😎 > Also I just opened up a position in ALAR lmao. I like your style of investing. Thanks! Nice to meet someone who gets what I'm aiming for.
You follow the Koala on Twitter I see... Also I just opened up a position in ALAR lmao
It is great when you can find growth, profitability and scalability in large caps as that can give you market beating returns. Visa is an example of this as what they do is highly scalable and that’s not a company that was unknown to the general public. Everyone probably has them in their wallet. Since their IPO in 2008, their stock has beaten the S&P 500/SPY and Nasdaq 100/QQQ since IPO. It is even better when you find growth, profitability and scalability in an unknown micro cap as the runway for growth is that much bigger. This is the type of investment that can given life changing returns. Just like when Peter Thiel invested in a startup called Facebook at a $5 million valuation. Now maybe not to the extreme of Peter Thiel’s $5 million into $1 billion, but $ALAR has massive potential. Also, just wait for when they have more consecutive quarters worth of profitability and stock screeners show them having metrics in the positive like ROA, ROIC, ROE and profit margin. If they continue execute in 2024, that will come and that will attract more interest as many won’t invest in companies that are negative in those metric. Finding a profitable micro cap that can become a large cap or even just a mid cap company is a dream scenario.
I just discovered $ALAR this week and recently opened a 60 share position at $26.05 after I somehow found out about this company on X from an account who is into small cap stocks. After doing some “research” on their website, their financials and listening to a couple interviews from the CEO about the overall history of the company and how they recently pivoted to being more focused on NetNut, came away really impressed. Growth looks fantastic, turned the corner on profitability which should explode as they have a product that is high scalable, they are in an industry with a huge TAM (total addressable market) so they have a big runway for growth. If you annualized their last two quarters which were profitable, their ROIC and ROE would be very high. Valuation looks way more attractive than many highly touted large cap stocks. Unless there is something I’m missing, this is a screaming buy because they have many of the “ingredients” that the 100 bagger book by Chris Mayer talks about that lead to multi bagger returns.
Yes, the catalyst is that whilst revenue was mostly flat in the last 3 quarters, this will change in 2024. The flat topline during most of 2023 was caused by two offsetting developments: high growth in its subsidiary NetNut being ofsett by revenue decline in other business areas, which ALAR has now terminated. NetNut grew 150% (!) In 2023 compared to 2022. And this hypergrowth will finally also become visible in ALAR's topline in 2024. ALAR's stock price has moved up 6X over the past 6 months as investors are slowly beginning to understand what ALAR's true potential for growth is. They have been misguided by flat topline and one off losses (asset write offs related to ALAR's formeren business activities it now has shed). Whilst the share price has moved up significantly over the past months, this doesn't mean there's little potential left.
Started putting the little money I have into a Schwab account this last week. I put $100 into LUNR at 8.50 and sold at 10.20 only made like $30 or something but it has served me well so far. For my positions I’m going to hold for longer than a few days I’ve got ALAR, QRTEA, and AIRE
ALAR has some new products to shoot it up over the recent highs and still at a bargain price - should be 40 and up next quarter...
ALAR has some new products to shoot it up over the recent highs and still at a bargain price - should be 40 and up next quarter...