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Disclosing my ALHC positions for accountability.
ALCH will moon after Trump kicks grandma off Medicare
Technical Analysis for the week 4/18/22
Mentions
ALHC earnings: Health plan membership at the end of the quarter was approximately 294,100, up 31.5% year-over-year Total revenue was $1,335.6 million, up 31.6% year-over-year Adjusted gross profit* was $182.9 million, up 35.3% year-over-year, and income from operations was $42.1 million Adjusted gross profit excludes depreciation and amortization of $7.9 million and selling, general, and administrative expenses of $131.0 million (which includes $16.3 million of equity-based compensation). Adjusted gross profit also excludes $1.9 million of equity-based compensation recorded within medical expenses Medical benefits ratio based on adjusted gross profit was 86.3%, an improvement of approximately 40 basis points year-over-year Adjusted EBITDA* of $68.1 million represented an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.1% and grew 48.4% year-over-year, while net income was $36.6 million, compared to $15.7 million the year prior
ALHC A former executive at Alignment Healthcare alleges the insurance company manipulated its finances to boost its stock price and executive compensation, according to a whistleblower lawsuit filed Wednesday.....
ALHC getting a nice reaction from its investor presentation today ...
Took a nibble at ALHC. 30% growth and a business model that involves making their sickest customers less sick (which saves a ton of money long term) seems like a proper use of health insurance. I also think if the Dems take one or more chambers of Congress next year they're going to lob money at health insurance companies because they really have to defend something they did 18 years ago to the death.
ALHC earnings: First Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights All comparisons, unless otherwise noted, are to the three months ended March 31, 2025. Health plan membership at the end of the quarter was approximately 284,800, up 30.9% year-over-year Total revenue was $1,235.2 million, up 33.3% year-over-year Adjusted gross profit* was $145.9 million, up 36.1% year-over-year, and income from operations was $15.5 million Adjusted gross profit excludes depreciation and amortization of $7.8 million and selling, general, and administrative expenses of $121.1 million (which includes $12.6 million of equity-based compensation). Adjusted gross profit also excludes $0.02 million of depreciation expense and an additional $1.4 million of equity-based compensation recorded within medical expenses Medical benefits ratio based on adjusted gross profit was 88.2%, an improvement of 25 basis points year-over-year Adjusted EBITDA* of $37.9 million represented an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.1% and grew 87.6% year-over-year, while net income was $11.4 million, compared to $9.4 million net loss the year prior
In financials I'm big on ABX. Still extremely cheap here. I own a ton. JXN also decently cheap. I own, but it's not as exciting. KFS is technically a financial, but has a lot of other businesses going. In healthcare.... ALHC really has me interested, but I don't own it yet. They have a model of health insurance that actually tries to help it's most sick customers and thus lowers costs long term. CLPT and QURE are extremely cheap if their thesis plays out, but also early stage biotech is risky. So beware. TWST has gotten expensive, but is a great watchlist name. They make synthetic DNA for medical testing.
A few interesting buys out there. BNED. I own some, but it's held up really well in this selloff, which is generally a good sign. Obscenely cheap. ULH/trucking broadly. Been on this one for awhile, flatbed trucking is still going nuts. Like COVID era nuts. Had HTLD/KNX previously, but I like the flatbed operators more at this point. ALHC, probably a little early, but could legitimately 3-4x in the next 4 years as the health insurance stocks get back on track. Gold streamers. Upside of gold with out the downside of operating a mine. MRX. Had a nice little rally after it's annual report last week, but still stupid cheap for a huge compounder. MIAX. Chart is a little rough, but great play on options trading and a free call option on predictions markets. Solar. I own calls in SHLS, but lowering the FED funds rate is great for HELOCs. High energy bills and cheap sources of financing is great for solar. Also, data center demand. JOE. Bruce Berkowitz sold another portion of his holdings and interest rate fears created a 1-2 punch down. Still great fundamentals. TOITF. If it holds here we're looking at a nice double bottom. Bullish. All that said, I still don't think the market has fully priced in a long term closure/restriction of the strait of Hormuz, so there's that threat in the background.
Any opinion on ALHC, alignment healthcare?
It came up in Steve Eisman's latest [podcast](https://open.spotify.com/episode/5e0LmgAtwFQUuAOhJwZ6QH?si=Bod7Mp0fSi2E66NjYaHarA&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A12Z1fRNhtOLLRCAtjCOPsx), but has anyone looked into ALHC? They're doing pretty cool things with health insurance like trying to make their customers healthier so they avoid costly hospital stays. Growing fast and great customer reviews. Stock is down but performing way better than peers, which is a good sign when the sector turns around.
I am looking at IBEX, ALHC, RVLV, TEVA. Quite good in terms of fundamentals and has potential for good price action in coming months.
After-hours action $VRME VerifyMe : +76.33% $PI Impinj : +21.82% $SGD Safe and Green Development: +21.24% $RAYA Erayak Power Solution Group : +21.09% $ALHC Alignment Healthcare : +20.92%
Thats a dinosaur bud.. you should go in with ALHC or CLOV
I think the ticker is ALHC …. Interesting DD will look into it although affordability might be an issue
UNH has always depended on the government increasing Medicare payments so they can keep showing increasing profits. There are a lot of smaller Medicare Advantage companies that are keeping people healthier by using Ai technology and innovation now and are showing the government they can profit and not need to gouge the government. The problem is these smaller Medicaid companies can only grow so fast because as they add new patients, those newer patients seem to increase cost for the first 2 years or so. ALHC grew a healthy 13% and Clover health also did well and grew 20% in those enrolled yoy last quarter. Although a company like Clover Health is not profitable yet, it has a much lower MCR rate per patient when compared to UNH and is expected to have an EBITDA profit of around 50 to 75 million this year. Both ALHC and Clover Health are using technology to assist them in keeping people healthier and reducing expenses. I own Clover Health shares so it’s awesome to see them start to turn the corner into profitability and still grow their Medicare membership. Last quarter they earned 0 cents per share but you need to remember 4th quarter and 1st quarter are both usually flu season and people tend to have more doctor visits. Next year, Clover Health will start to get paid for being a 4 star Medicare Advantage insurer(this year they are still getting paid by the government as a 3.5 star)and the increase will be in the hundreds of dollars per patient per year. In fact during the earnings call CEO Andrew Toy mentioned they were looking at increasing benefits for their Medicare Advantage members to make thier plans in more attractive for 2026. I feel older more established Medicare companies like UNH, Humana and Aetna should look at newer companies like Clover Health and ALHC and start to use technology and Ai to assist them also for the future.
$ALHC. Like CLOV but has better fundamentals.
> This would actually be problematic for volatility since people would assume they know something Eh. I think that fear would be largely overblown. People don't freak out about most insider trades unless they're exceptionally large, and if 10 senators that were in a closed door meeting about an outbreak decided to sell 75% of their stock portfolios in the same week, I'd consider this a benefit not a negative. The point is to remove the benefits they get from timing the market on confidential info, and generally people will be able to remove that incentive if all their trades were public and delayed by a week/month/whatever. > we might end up with a new gme situation every week. GME isn't a great comparison. Better to compare against companies with large insider trades in the recent past. ALHC is a good example of a recent one with a bunch of insider sales recently.
AMWL breaks $4, buying in. Also bought ALHC.
ALHC base breakout. AMWL testing top of its range, looks good above $4. OLLI looks interesting, but probably going to pass on it.
Looking at memes CLOV dropped on an eps beat and ALHC its comp is pumping on a miss?
CLOV lost money at gross profit. [https://imgur.com/a/YHlfYdf](https://imgur.com/a/YHlfYdf) Gross Profit ignores everything besides the cost of paying out benefits. They are paying out more in benefits than making in Premiums. None of these other healthcare companies Lost on Gross Profit during the same period. Even MOH and ALHC, which are also primarily Medicare companies which work with Seniors, were Gross Margin positive during this period. Why is CLOV losing out on Gross Profits when other similar companies are not? Being in the "growth phase" isn't an answer to this question since that shouldn't affect Gross Margins.
CLOV lost money at gross profit. [https://imgur.com/a/YHlfYdf](https://imgur.com/a/YHlfYdf) Gross Profit ignores everything besides the cost of paying out benefits. They are paying out more in benefits than making in Premiums. None of these other healthcare companies Lost on Gross Profit during the same period. Even MOH and ALHC, which are also primarily Medicare companies which work with Seniors, were Gross Margin positive during this period. Why is CLOV losing out on Gross Profits when other similar companies are not? Being in the "growth phase" isn't an answer to this question since that shouldn't affect Gross Margins.
How do you lift the hood off something that is getting better every day, every minute, every sec. the more data the CLOVER ASSISTANT receives, the better is the performance. Like seriously, do you have any idea about AI and ML? Lifting the hood is boomer speak, and frankly you sound like a stooge of the short seller and short hedgies. Last laugh will be ours, until then continue hating. ALHC will be bought out by CLOV (either for pennies or for fair price) - wait and watch. Tick-tock to you. I hope at least you are short the stock, otherwise where’s the fun, eh?
Again. I'm in the industry. I've lifted the hood on their stuff. It's not a game changer. ALHC's AVA platform is better. Both of them have to get to 500K members to survive. I wouldn't invest in CLOV. I might make a small bet on ALHC because I believe ALHC will beat their plan this year for membership. With a plan like this it's all about the network. ALHC is working with Scripps, Cedars Sinai and IORA.