AMD

BrieflyBrilliant2004

​I am in a similar boat mentally. My marriage, my job performance, panic attacks... everything is almost the same. I had 50k in gold and cashed out 25k of that to invest in January 2025. Gold had its bull run, but my portfolio got wrecked during the Liberation Day period. Then I panicked and sold all my GOOGL, AMD, Intel, Micron, and uranium stocks; I flew to safety and bought Berkshire and VOO. All of my previous stocks went flying just like gold did before. I was down about 20 percent at that point. ​Luckily, I got my courage back and bought some silver miners before silver went crazy. That not only covered my losses but I was up like 50% at the top. I was feeling like a prodigy. When silver went down from 54 to 45, my portfolio saw -20% again since miners were behaving like they were leveraged. I was 100% invested in silver miners at that point. Again, I panicked and sold 80% of my silver miner stocks and bought Berkshire, VOO and gold. I probably should sell the rest of the silver stocks and dollar cost into VOO. Maybe I should even sell Berkshire to buy more VOO, since that is stock picking as well. ​I mean, I don't want to sound like a dick since I did not lose any money and I am still up about 50%, but I am mentally wrecked. I could have just kept all of my gold and had about the same result without this mental deterioration. I hurt my wife; I blamed her for not helping me during my panic sells and blamed her just because she was not interested in trading. She forgave me in the end, but I cry every time I remember how badly I behaved toward her and the things I said that I wish I hadn't. I was a top performer at work, but now I fear that I could get fired. In the end, I learned some lessons, but very expensive ones. I concluded that stock picking investing is not for me because I panic sell every time. I will just keep buying VOO and gold. Advice: Stop looking at the stocks for a while and focus on your life. We both learned that the market doesn't just take your money, it takes your peace of mind and changes your behavior toward the people you love. Apologize to your partner again and again, not because of the money, but because she/he is your real safe haven. Accept that you (and I) are not built for active trading. The best thing we can do is move to boring investments like VOO or gold. A peaceful life is worth more than extra profit you might get from stock picking.

psykeknight

Yea I like AMD also I DCA AMD

Xanchush

Alright time to use AMD

phatpham1803

I just sold all my NVDA shares to go all in AMD. My PT is at least 500 by 2027

RB5Network

This sounds ridiculous, but I have absolutely no doubt Mossad WILL be gunning for backdoors in chip drivers. You cannot convince me otherwise. The only chips who may be immune to this is AMD on a Unix system which uses open source drivers.

dataCollector42069

Good luck. I yeeted wayy too much of my net worth in AMD this year at 165 and bitched out at $218. Hopefully these print for you

Ecstatic_Captain_697

Who has the least amount of ties to Israel, Nvidia or AMD? Whichever is less is what I will be buying in the future. Fuck Israel.

Internal_Field5970

Silver, truly the AMD of metals 

Bjamnp17

Indeed! In on the same boat but with AMD/NVDA. Though I have a nice size stake in AST! Love the potential that AST has. Going to be an exciting next 2 years!!! AND BEYOND!!!!

Sawii

You are still mixing up a lot of things. Your article talks about equipment. You mix in producers, and than finally you mention AMD and Google, which are neither equipment producers or chip producers. They design the chips.

WoodenLynx327

How are you down on AMD?

EfficientPumpkin1642

Why not $AMD? A lot safer and has very good upside. Nebius can potentially go up way more but $AMD CAN 5-10x by 2030 and is a lot safer

Ryanmaster1

All aboard AMD baby. I'm never touching Nvidia again 🤢

R-Dragon_Thunderzord

Nvidia APUs to compete with AMD in the mobile x86/x64 computing space?

ContentBlackberry0

I see Apple Broadcom and AMD would all be winners not sure how you lost there.

DrHoflich

Look to ETFs. ETFs are a diversified fund. There is a small fee for using them. QQQ and SPY for safer plays. You can even just look what stocks are in these ETFs and copy them purchasing the stocks directly to avoid the fee. It comes down to your risk profile and time window. If you have a long time window, I’d routinely just buy in set intervals stocks like Microsoft, NVDA, Cummins, WM, etc. and set it and forget it. Maybe buying a little extra on dips. Personally, I make some riskier plays, but also value invest. I sold my PLTR, NVDA, IONQ, and AMD for some decent gains, now I am waiting for a larger pullback in the “AI” market to buy back in. I recently purchased, Chipotle and I am up 20% on that, but may sell soon and move the position to Duolingo. I also purchased KVUE at 16.50 (Tylenol) as the company is doing well, but the stock is down on bad press and another company is looking to purchase it at $20 a share essentially just handing 30% gains to stock holders if the deal goes through. Most of my long term stocks are REITs I purchased extremely cheap during the COVID crash.

Mo_Steins_Ghost

I was referring to the semiconductor industry, not AMD. Gaming accounts for less than 10% of industry revenues.

fallingdowndizzyvr

All hardware depreciates fast. Nvidia or AMD are no exceptions. Take the Mi50 for example. It sold for thousands at launch. It bottomed out at $130. Lately it's had a deadcat bounce back up to $400. Which is still a tiny fraction of what it cost new. Nvidia is no different. Look at the P40 for an example of that. This is just the standard boom bust cycle. It's all happened before. It'll all happen again.

Wowmuchrya

Any day AMD is red is a good day in my books

movdqa

I'm not in AMD. Haven't been since 2004 or 2005.

Mo_Steins_Ghost

I don't invest in tech, and I don't understand your comment. I am talking about my actual literal brother. He's an exec at AMD.

JohnnyMadrid

!banbet AMD 220 EOW

Natural-King

I see you know a lot about AMD, can we chat about it?

enc-nyc

I'm not sure if there's shittier stock than AMD

GreedyPomegranate391

Cash/Money market funds: 5% I-bonds: 1% Gold ETF: 3% Bitcoin ETF: 0.75% US domestic index funds & mutual funds: 37% International index fund: 4% Vanguard TD 2055: 1% AMD: 35% Some individual stocks and ETFs not worth mentioning because of the low %: 2.25% House equity: 11% 100% of my 401k contributions are going to the international index fund since the second half of 2025 and will continue the same going forward until reaching 30% of my portfolio. Expecting AMD to run up starting sometime at the end of 2026, so I'm waiting to sell sometime after that.

movdqa

One of my nightmare scenarios is Intel fails on 18A and they get broken up with less support for their products going forward. AMD would have a field day in x86. On the downside, the RAM and SSD shortages and associate price hikes are dampening gamers enthusiasm for builds. We've started to see some motherboards that will use DDR4 or DDR5 or that support DDR4 so that customers can reuse the RAM in their existing system so they don't have to pay the huge prices for RAM today. AMD is still selling older generations of CPUs that helps this market but I think that the overall effect of high RAM and SSD prices will crimp the sales of their high-end CPUs. This morning I watched a video by Hardware Unboxed: How much RAM do you really need? Where they compared gaming performance on 8 GB, 16 GB, 32 GB and 64 GB. So their viewers are looking to see how little RAM they can get away with. I don't know where AMD is with AI. I only hear nVidia, nVidia, nVidia.

Internal_Field5970

Silver is the AMD of metals 

Fantlastic_Tree_6671

I hear you, nobody's sleeping on NVIDIA or AMD, but I'm also bullish on Intel and the gains it could bring. You might wanna check out Intel a bit more.

Much_Candle_942

And, that's why it'll outperform by 2X. Always inverse Reddit! Retail is foolish. And retail that posts and boasts on social media takes the crown. Plenty of examples: Meta, AMD @ sub-100. RKLB @ 40 just recently.  But.. this.. But that.. these pseudo smart FUD comments is exactly when smart money is buying. *"This one is once in lifetime, retirement enabler"* that's when you're the exit liquidity!

dieharddubsfan

They had a nice run, but not sure what's going to propel them for the next run. TSMC, NVIDIA, AMD seem more solid choices to me.

betadonkey

Nvidia and Intel are not competitors they are long time partners. Intel and AMD are the only companies operating an x86 license and AMD is a direct Nvidia competitor. Nvidia has a strong strategic interest in Intel’s success and is likely working with them on a next gen PCIe solution/replacement for high bandwidth x86 to GPU data lanes.

skystarmen

Yours is 99% of cases. Even the people that invested in whatever stock that went to the moon 15 years ago, almost everyone would have sold when it went up 2, 3x or even 4x. Who keeps holding until it goes to 20x or more? \-source: bought AMD at \~$10, sold at $14 and was happy with my 40% gains in a few months! It's $215 today...

Effective-Pace-5100

More than doubled the market at a 36% gain YTD. Main winners were CLS, RKLB, GOOGL, AMD. If you had a loss in this bull year you need to seriously consider your investment strategy 😂

Natural-King

Agreed. If the position is small enough, the volatility doesn’t really matter. I’m long AMD, but I’ve been careful not to size it in a way that would mess with my sleep.

X-Boozemonkey-X

Nvida and AMD sailing around the bay with the anchor deployed. Get your asses climbing.

mharrison4819

You can hold growth stocks like AMD and NVDA for the long term but at the same time, manage your position sizes diversify your risk, and set up mental and cash buffers. That way you can stay steady through both bull runs and pullbacks.

Alert_Weird6893

Hardware depreciation - keep in mind that GPU/CPU does not age like a milk. If companies lack funding to upgrade their hardware every 2-3 years then they will stick to the 5-6 year cycle (using OPs numbers). You do not need state of the art hardware for generating cat pictures, that animated porn your wife's boyfriend likes, or summarizing of long DD posts. That, lets say 10%, performance boost is nice but not crucial. Also iirc then Altman or perhaps Ilya said that some of the future computational speed gains will come from optimized algorithms/software instead. if you talk pricing then who says NVDA can not lower their prices(up to a point where AMD can stick their theoretically better yet more expensive GPU to you know where)? NVDA margins are so high that there is no problem for them to enter pricing war. But at the moment the demand sets the price. ROCm - open source(ouch, ow, ow). Unless the pricing/money is what moves people from CUDA to ROCm then you are going to need a god tier evangelists and marketers to move the top tier scientists/code from one working platform to another, sometimes-working-if-all-versions-match platform. All in all, competition is nice but I am not at all convinced that AMD will dethrone NVDA with that MI300X. although they are a real competitor. Sadly AMD valuation is already at a quite high level so while I am sure NVDA share price will fall I do not believe that AMD will win from that in a huge/meaningful way. Anyways, thx for the solid DD.

my_wing

We all needed to understand that TSMC most important customer is Apple, there is no indication that iPhone is not releasing in Sep/Oct, it is around 6 months from HVM to product available, the most educated guess is that TSMC is more reasonable to be in HVM around Feb and not Dec, the website a number of sites out there is linking is an old website from TSMC which is a prior estimate. This is a trick, just treat you did not heard that TSMC had HVM N2, as there is no indication that Apple has shift its iPhone launch schedule. TSMC N2 is going to be in HVM in Feb 2026, there is the most reasonable educated guess. As mentioned FCF have a component of growth to be added. With Intel, AMD, Qualcomm leaving or planning to leave TSMC most advance node, i.e. the most profitable, there is no indication that TSMC can fill up the gap that left by Intel, remember the first N3 class customer is launch by Apple > Intel > nVidia / AMD > mediatek > Google, that No 2 spot make Intel a more important customer to TSMC then nVidia even Intel is making a loss. That is a "-" & "-", TSMC needed to find a customer that can replaced Intel and another one to maintain growth, that seems remote, nVidia is not going to fill that gap, they need a node that has D0 < 0.1 in order to manufacture a large die area chip, which Apple and Intel did not needed, therefore even N3B was in trouble, Apple's chip is smaller (as mobile vs server) and can absorb the loss. CC Wei @ TSMC = Bob Swam @ Intel. CC Wei need to go, he lead the company into a no High NA EUV company, did not even investigate other technology e.g. Dry Photo Resist, Pattern Sharpening. Quad Patterning, i.e. Good Luck, so instead of asking why I think Samsung can catch up, the better way to ask is why do you think other will slow down, while TSMC slow down. From this webpage the slide headed EUV Lithography Process and Roadmap challenge [https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/lam-research-tokyo-electron-jsr-battle](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/lam-research-tokyo-electron-jsr-battle) You can clear see that what TEL is thinking and that is why TSMC N2 is still at 0.021 um\^2 which is the same as Intel 18A, both 18A and N2 is already hole pitch \~36nm (the TEL slide use 26nm) i.e. what TEL think is the limit for Low NA EUV, even with multiple patterning, if TSMC is using a sharper Dry Photo Resist then might push this limit, while Line Pitch can be push by Pattern Shaping (Applied Materials), because of these limit, from day 1 I am very skeptic that TSMC can scale > 1% density (SRAM) from N3E, (N3B in itself is a kinda of fail node not going to count). Whatever TSMC is say, I am not believing since that is the limit set by a number of industry research that I read. Intel will widen the PPA gap to TSMC and Samsung will close the Gap, that is going to happen, especially under CC Wei as their CEO.

Maximum-Magazine-333

I bought AMD in 2024 at 150 and I was seeing analysts explicitly stating MU has more upside but I jerked my cock all over a picture of Lisa instead

VotedOut

I'm in general agreement you and Burry on my NVDA bearishness. AMD is in my "too hard for me to value" pile. When it comes to the evaluating the technological or adoption race between Nvidia, AMD, and Intel... I just don't know - other people have stronger and more informed opinions on that than me. The only one I feel strongly about is Nvidia: I don't see how Nvidia's profit margins or growth is sustainable for the next 5 years. They are already a $4.6T market cap company doing like $200B revenue. How is their handful of concentrated customers supposed to double or triple their spending in the next few years without tanking their own earnings? And should I really expect Nvidia's competitors to just lay down and let Nvidia continue to enjoy 55.5% net profit margins without competition making a serious push to grab a piece of that pie for themselves? Most analysts are modeling continued growth and sustained profit margins for Nvidia, but I still see it as a cyclical semiconductor company nearing the peak of a super-cycle. So, I personally think Nvidia should be valued like it's near the top of a cycle, with a forward P/E of maybe 10x... which would cut the stock price down by at least 50%. But I must admit that I have a strong personal bias that makes me hate Nvidia. They are the poster child of everything I hate about the current state of clown capitalism: \- A $4.6T market cap company that employs only 36,000 people. It's now an 8% chunk of the S&P 500 "market" that employs like 0.01% of the United States population (343 million people). \- The bulk of their revenues and earnings are inorganic and are not driven by end-consumer demand from a large customer base. Nvidia is dependent on a tiny handful of companies paying astronomical prices to buy truckloads of their shit just so we can all have a bunch of AI slop on a digital screen shoved down our throats. It's all driven by a small handful of companies all swapping spit with each other on a tech-bro dystopian fantasy. \- Now, the entire stock market is held hostage by the need for this one stupid greedy company to be able to continue to juice their earnings by any means possible. \- And it's making energy usage and climate change even worse. It irritates me that tech-bros are so excited about cooking ourselves to death further just so we can have AI slop on a digital screen that can't even do any physical labor in the real physical world no matter how intelligent it may get.

phatpham1803

Should I sell all my NVDA and AMD shares to all in MU ?

ComfortablePiglet842

It’s been a while since the last GOOG/AMD/PLTR pump cycle. I’m wondering if all 3 are gonna pick up momentum in the next couple weeks

BLESSED_NOT_PRESSED

Sorry For Typo In AMD’s Tradeplan “ 🐂 Case: BUY AAPL” I meant “ 🐂 Case: BUY AMD $210 CALL”****

Adventurous_Tea_2198

Don’t expect much from intel in 2026, Trump pushed the china silicon ban to 2027. Their consumer panther lake and nova lake cpus are an improvement but they’ve still lost mindshare to AMD, their server cpus still aren’t close to taking over amd. I haven’t seen any evidence of large foundry customers for 2026 so I wouldn’t expect it.

my_wing

The previous valuation is base on TSMC has a node advantage. As an accountant valuation no matter normal is using FCF, TSMC is over valued. The last 2 years see that Intel has shift production to TSMC most advance node, i.e. that is the growth component, since that Intel shift that production back to its own foundry, sorry that grow is not going anyways. The last 2 years we also see that Pixel CPU is move to TSMC from Samsung. The last 3-5 years also seen that nVidia shift back to TSMC from Samsung. Growth is already well reflected. Currently is the other way around, AMD / Qualcomm all considering moving to Samsung or Intel, demand is reduced. TSMC growth is going to go slow, as Samsung is going to catch up in 2028 as High NA enter production in Samsung. TSMC node disadvantage is going to be widen as Intel using High NA for 14A in HVM. This is a professional finance analyst from a Chartered Accountant my friend. TSMC is a sell and sell it fast

PadreSJ

2025 was my year of selling short. Shorts: \- Tesla \- NVIDIA \- Intel \- Accenture \- Adobe \- United Health \- Chipotle Long: \- AMD \- Amazon \- Dominos Pizza I'm up about $220k for the year.

hiphopanonomos

No way you must have bought around $120 or so, well done. AMD is one of those that I looked at every single day and never bought then watched it immediately go to 200+ and never return. May take your advice with leaps. Do you do 1 year out and how far OTM?

Scribble_Box

For real. Definitely a little daunting spending thousands on a couple contracts. First expensive leaps I ever bought were on AMD. Dropped about 10k on it, and over the course of a few months watched it go -90%. Thought I was well and truly fucked. Waited a few more months and sold for over 100% gains. Fucking Rollercoaster of emotions lmao.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

Had to get my receipts out for this one. [MI300X released December 6, 2023](https://www.amd.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-12-6-amd-delivers-leadership-portfolio-of-data-center-a.html), [H200 announced November 13, 2023](https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2023/NVIDIA-Supercharges-Hopper-the-Worlds-Leading-AI-Computing-Platform/default.aspx) – they're literally the same generation competing products released within weeks of each other. I've been comparing apples to apples this entire time. [Across Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, and TensorWave, AMD shipped 327,000 MI300X units in 2024](https://www.theregister.com/2024/12/23/nvidia_ai_hardware_competition/). Specifically: Meta accounted for 173,000 units, Microsoft 96,000 units, and Oracle 38,000 units. Microsoft is using MI300X to power Azure OpenAI Chat GPT 3.5 and 4 services. [Oracle never stopped buying MI300X in 2025 with ongoing shipments through Q4 2025](https://x.com/MikeLongTerm/status/1998586597810344301). MI325X mass shipments started Q2 2025. [MI355X volume production started June 2025, with Oracle scaling to over 131,072 GPUs](https://blogs.oracle.com/cloud-infrastructure/announcing-general-availability-of-oci-amd-mi355x). On AMD figures being a dissapointment – [Lisa Su went into 2024 expecting $2 billion in GPU sales, AMD delivered over $5 billion, exceeding expectations by 150%](https://digidai.github.io/2025/11/17/lisa-su-amd-ai-chip-nvidia-challenge-deep-analysis/). [AMD raised GPU outlook from $4B to over $5B during 2024](https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/07/30/amd-earnings-report-q2-2024.html). Stock dropped on slightly softer Q4 guidance and MI350 launching mid-2025 while Blackwell was shipping – timing issue, not execution failure. You've contradicted yourself at every turn. AMD shipped 327k units in year one to Meta/Microsoft/Oracle at scale, crushed their own guidance by 150%, and MI400 specs (432GB HBM4 @ 19.6 TB/s) beat B300 (288GB HBM3e @ 8 TB/s). Same EPYC playbook.

aChillPear

Dropped my shares and added to $AMD

SinAnaMissLee

I never saw Nvidia & Intel as competitors. Many home assembled gaming PC's rely on both. In fact, they have a common competitor: AMD. Being bullish on all 3 & TSMC and others in that space & their supply chains is absolutely the most sane thing to do. I am relatively biased here because I bought Intel at a major dip. So any one bringing attention to Intel is going to make me happy. And as for whether Nvidia had a better use for that money? I don't think so. Let's not forget, NVIDIA bought Intel stock at a ~ 50% discount. That means they can sell their stake tomorrow and get 5 billion dollars or so in profit. I don't think that discount was fair but ... Well; it's forgettable.

981flacht6

Nvidia is going to go further up. I would imagine Broadcom also. I'm not so certain how much runway is left for AMD as they will end up with the smallest market share, but we are deeply compute constrained, I expect everything to sell out for years. AMD could take a big hit on margins due to HBM pricing though. I've also heard that Google didn't lock in LTAs for memory so that could also take a huge hit. Nvidia has locked up the most capacity from TSMC and from memory makers.

PhaseExtra1132

The market doesn’t care about an office. AMD will probably follow suit since it’s free money they’re giving out since they lost a lot of business

Bitter_Macaron_4032

"No one's buying MI300X"? 327,000 MI300X units shipped in 2024 across Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and TensorWave. Meta and Microsoft were NVIDIA's biggest customers and they're diversifying to AMD at scale. You've contradicted yourself multiple times: * First: "AMD isn't good at training" * Then: "Supercomputers don't matter" * Then: "You don't know what an APU is" * Then: "Focus on GPUs not CPUs" * Now: "No one's buying MI300X" (despite 327k units shipped) You're not arguing in good faith. You're just throwing shit at the wall. The thesis stands: AMD has competitive/superior hardware at 1/3 the cost, shipped 327k units in their first year, ROCm is maturing, and MI400 specs (432GB HBM4 @ 19.6 TB/s) beat B300 specs (288GB HBM3e @ 8 TB/s). Same pattern as EPYC.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

MI300X pricing ranges $10-15k depending on volume. Fine, let's use your $10k number since you want to be precise: 8x MI300X @ $10k = $80k 8x H200 @ $44k = $352k You just made my argument stronger. Now it's a $270k difference per rack instead of $200k. Thanks. On "AMD makes awful deals": AMD won El Capitan and Frontier ($1.2B) in competitive bids against NVIDIA. They're taking market share from zero to 327,000 MI300X units shipped in 2024 across Meta, Microsoft, Oracle. That's not "awful deals" - that's the EPYC playbook. Undercut on price, gain share, scale volume, expand margins over time. Intel made "amazing margins" too... until AMD took 28% server share and Intel's stock went nowhere for 5 years. That's the pattern you're missing. And I never said "focus on CPU crumbs." I said AMD offers complete CPU+GPU solutions that NVIDIA can't match without partnering. That integrated offering + cost advantage is the competitive edge. You've spent this whole thread moving goalposts. I'm done here.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

A rack of 8 MI300X GPUs is \~$112k, not $320k. You just made my point. 8x MI300X @ $14k each = $112k 8x H200 @ $40k+ each = $320k+ You're paying $200k+ more for less memory per card. That's the entire thesis. When hyperscalers are spending $30B on infrastructure, saving $200k per rack adds up fast. The $1.2B in supercomputer contracts proves AMD can execute at exascale for AI. The business case is hyperscalers seeing that execution and adopting the same architecture at massive scale with 3x cost savings. You keep saying "focus on GPUs not CPUs" while missing that AMD sells both sides at better economics. NVIDIA can't offer that without partnering. Newsflash - you can't have an AI server without both a CPU and GPU. You need a CPU for any computer. AMD makes both and has better TCO than Intel or NVIDIA. Thank you for this. What a lay up.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

The H100 being 3 years old and still used proves Burry's depreciation point, not refutes it. Companies are depreciating these over 5-6 years while economic value erodes faster. But here's what you're missing: AMD's generational leaps blow NVIDIA's out of the water. MI200 to MI300X: 3.4x performance jump H100 to H200: 1.05-1.1x improvement And looking forward to 2026: MI400: 432GB HBM4 at 19.6 TB/s NVIDIA B300: 288GB HBM3e at 8 TB/s AMD has 1.5x more memory and 2.45x more bandwidth than NVIDIA's next-gen chip. Both shipping in 2026. AMD had the performance advantage with MI300X but nobody wanted to deal with ROCm immaturity. Now ROCm is maturing, MI400 is coming with specs that destroy B300, and the software excuse is disappearing. NVIDIA's been iterating incrementally while coasting on CUDA. AMD's been making generational leaps. Once the software gap closes, the hardware advantage becomes undeniable. Argue some more. You're showing the thread how dumb you are.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

You're right - rotation won't be 100% AMD. But here's what matters: NVIDIA grew so large because they were the ONLY option powering AI companies. Once investors realize their money machine has real competition that could become a primary provider - sentiment changes fast. The AI companies benefit either way. They save 70% on hardware costs with comparable or better performance, which lets them scale higher than the NVIDIA ecosystem allowed. More efficient capital allocation = faster innovation. I'm not saying AMD takes everything. That's absurd because they don't need to. If AMD takes 20-30% share by 2027 (same as EPYC did with Intel), NVIDIA's margins compress and the stock reprices. The AI bubble doesn't burst because of this. It gets healthier. Competition lowers infrastructure costs, which means AI companies can actually scale sustainably instead of burning cash on overpriced hardware. GPUs are commoditizing. The companies putting them to work are what matter - and cheaper, competitive GPUs help those companies succeed.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

Fair correction on MI300A - it's an APU, not a discrete GPU like MI300X. I should've been more precise. But that doesn't change the core point: AMD delivered integrated CPU+GPU solutions (whether you call it APU or discrete) that beat NVIDIA in competitive evaluations for El Capitan and Frontier - $1.2B in contracts for exascale AI workloads. And yes, NVIDIA has Grace now - another fair point. The thesis isn't about semantic distinctions between APU and GPU. It's about AMD being competitive across the full stack (EPYC + Instinct MI300X/MI400) at a 3-4x cost advantage. When MI400 ships with 432GB HBM4 and hyperscalers are deciding where to spend $30B, the integrated offering + cost differential matters more than whether one product is technically an APU. You've pointed out technical imprecisions. Cool. None of it refutes that MI400 specs are competitive, ROCm gap is closing, cost advantage is real, and the EPYC playbook worked once already.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

Fair question. Let me ground this in what actually happened with Intel/AMD: Intel during AMD's EPYC takeover (2017-2025): * Market share: Went from 99%+ server share (2017) to 72.7% (Q2 2025) * Stock performance: -15.45% total return over 5 years vs AMD's 53.30% annualized * Intel didn't die - they're still generating revenue. But shareholders got crushed as margins compressed and growth stalled. My NVDA valuation thesis follows the same pattern: NVDA current: \~$187, 47x forward PE, 73% gross margins If AMD takes 15-20 points of share by 2027 (same cadence as EPYC), NVDA's margins compress to 68-70% and PE contracts to 35-40x. That puts fair value around $130-145. Not collapse - just repricing as the monopoly breaks. AMD current: \~$215, 22x forward PE, 35% projected CAGR If MI400 executes like Milan/Genoa did, AMD continues scaling from here as GPU revenue accelerates and margins expand toward NVDA levels (still lower, but closing the gap). The trade: Long AMD from $116 (now \~$215, up 85%). Adding NVDA Jan 2027 $180 puts ($26.65 premium, breakeven at $153.35) betting on margin compression repricing the stock to $130-145 range. That's 50-88% return on the puts if the thesis plays out. The thesis isn't "NVDA goes to zero." It's that AMD starts growing faster in NVDA's core market, margins compress, and NVDA reprices lower even while revenue grows. Intel's still alive - their shareholders just wish they'd rotated earlier. What's your take on fair value?

Bitter_Macaron_4032

Fair points on ROCm - it's still catching up, no question. But the gap is closing faster than people think. PyTorch has official ROCm support now, and Meta/Microsoft are already deploying MI300X at scale for inference. At the very least it's being integrated and considered by players that once stood by NVIDIA. That's enough for me to see the value. Basically ROCm sucks until it doesn't, and it's getting closer to not being shit every day. On the RAM modules: MI400 is coming with 432GB HBM4 at 19.6 TB/s bandwidth. If NVIDIA's pluggable RAM strategy works, great for them - but AMD's already shipping competitive memory specs on integrated packages. The question is cost and time-to-market. Your 40/40/20 split is actually pretty reasonable for risk management. I'm more concentrated (heavy AMD, short NVDA) because I think the 2026-2027 window is the inflection point, but I respect the diversified approach. The CUDA moat is real. I'm just betting that when CFOs are looking at $30B infrastructure budgets and ROCm is "good enough" for most workloads, the 4x cost gap becomes impossible to justify. Same thing happened with EPYC - Intel's ecosystem was "better" until the economics forced adoption. Appreciate the thoughtful take instead of just "AI FUD" dismissal.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

An APU is an Accelerated Processing Unit - CPU and GPU integrated on one die. The MI300A has 24 Zen 4 CPU cores AND CDNA 3 GPU compute cores. That's the whole point - it's both. You said it's "cpu. not gpu, not ai" which is factually wrong. On earnings vs revenue: Supercomputers prove AMD can execute integrated CPU+GPU at exascale for AI workloads. The business case isn't selling to national labs - it's that hyperscalers see El Capitan and Frontier running exascale AI and adopt the same architecture. These are reference deployments, not the revenue model. On the 4:1 ratio: You're proving my point. NVIDIA can only sell the GPU side. AMD sells both sides of that equation. When a hyperscaler spends $30B building infrastructure, having one vendor for the entire stack (CPU + GPU) at 1/4 the GPU cost is a massive competitive advantage. NVIDIA has to partner with CPU vendors (hence the Intel deal). AMD doesn't. You keep saying I don't know what I'm talking about while demonstrating you don't know what an APU is. I'm good here.

mindrunner

$AMD has really bad software. As much as I like it as a competitor, now that RAM prices have skyrocketed and $NVDA will release GPUs with pluggable ram modules, CUDA will still be the goto for AI training. I'd still be like 40% $NVDA 40% $GOOG 20% $AMD

VelcroCat78

What’s going to happen with AMD and Spacelink?

Bitter_Macaron_4032

MI300A is an APU - it's CPU and GPU integrated on one package. Specifically designed for AI/HPC convergence workloads. You just said it's "cpu. not gpu, not ai" which shows you have no idea what you're talking about. From AMD's own specs: MI300A combines 24 Zen 4 CPU cores with CDNA 3 GPU compute. It's literally the integrated AI accelerator that powers both El Capitan and Frontier for mixed AI/simulation workloads. On supercomputer revenue: You're missing the forest for the trees. These systems prove AMD can execute integrated CPU+GPU at exascale for AI workloads. The revenue isn't in selling to national labs - it's in hyperscalers adopting the same architecture for their data centers. El Capitan and Frontier are the proof of concept for enterprise deployment. On CPU ratio: 4:1 GPU to CPU doesn't mean CPUs don't matter - it means you need both. AMD is the only vendor competitive on both sides. NVIDIA has to partner for CPUs (hence the Intel deal). That's the integrated advantage. But sure, keep telling me the MI300A is "just a CPU."

dirtydriver58

AMD only offers repurposed laptop chips the G series in non gaming desktops

Bitter_Macaron_4032

Hold up. You said supercomputers "don't amount to much" and there's "no money there." El Capitan is the world's fastest supercomputer, powered entirely by AMD EPYC CPUs and Instinct MI300A GPUs [AMD ROCm](https://rocm.docs.amd.com/projects/install-on-linux/en/latest/install/3rd-party/pytorch-install.html). LLNL explicitly states that El Capitan allows them to integrate AI with traditional simulation and modeling workloads, opening new avenues for discovery across scientific disciplines [AMD ROCm](https://rocm.docs.amd.com/en/latest/compatibility/ml-compatibility/pytorch-compatibility.html). Frontier, the second fastest supercomputer in the world, is also powered by AMD EPYC CPUs and AMD Instinct GPUs, and continues to enable researchers to tackle complex problems from climate modeling to training large language models [AMD ROCm](https://rocm.docs.amd.com/en/latest/compatibility/ml-compatibility/pytorch-compatibility.html). These aren't just academic toys. They're exascale AI/HPC hybrid systems - proof AMD can deliver integrated CPU+GPU solutions at the absolute bleeding edge of AI infrastructure. When hyperscalers build data centers, they're building the same architecture, just distributed differently. You can't build an AI server without CPUs. AMD is the only vendor offering best-in-class on both sides. NVIDIA has to partner for CPUs. Intel can't compete on GPUs. That integrated advantage is the whole thesis. If you think CPUs don't matter in this discussion, you fundamentally misunderstand how AI infrastructure gets deployed.

TheoryInttro

Well, at least my poor AMD's clawed its way back into the green, there's that.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

Finally someone who gets it. Fair points. ROCm still has rough edges, no question. But it's closing faster than people think - PyTorch has official ROCm builds now, Meta and Microsoft are already deploying MI300X at scale for inference. That's not experimental, that's production. You're right that NVIDIA isn't asleep like Intel was. But Intel also wasn't sitting still - they just got outflanked on chiplet architecture and economics. NVIDIA's moat is software, but when hyperscalers are spending $30B+ on infrastructure, the 4x cost gap becomes impossible to ignore. CFOs will force the ROCm investment. On timeline - MI300X is gen 3. MI400 is gen 4. EPYC didn't dominate until Milan (gen 3) and Genoa (gen 4). Same generational cadence. People said the exact same shit about EPYC. "Intel's ecosystem is too entrenched." "Enterprise won't trust AMD's roadmap." "Software compatibility doesn't matter if nobody uses it." Naples got laughed out of the room. Rome was "interesting but not ready." Then Milan shipped, delivered on every promise, and adoption happened fast once enterprises saw AMD could execute. AMD proved they can execute a multi-generation comeback against an entrenched incumbent. Discrediting that same playbook on GPUs is the mistake. They did it once. They're doing it again.

bankshotzombies1

I’m bullish on AMD too, but it’s been flat for 3 months now. Even if a stock is good, it’s difficult to gain momentum when the whole market is in a cautious state. I’m waiting to see some confirmation.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

I hear you on training vs inference. But look at what's coming with MI400 in 2026 - specs show 2x the compute of MI350, 432GB HBM4 at 19.6 TB/s bandwidth, positioned directly against NVIDIA's Rubin with comparable performance. Obviously these are engineering projections, not shipping benchmarks yet. But if the specs hold up anywhere close to AMD's claims, it's not just competitive on inference anymore - it's closing the training gap hard while keeping the cost advantage. Here's what people miss: AMD powers El Capitan and Frontier - the top 2 supercomputers in the world. They make both the CPUs and GPUs. NVIDIA is stuck on one side (GPUs), Intel is bleeding out on the other (CPUs, literally fighting off a government bailout). Intel's so desperate they're partnering with NVIDIA just to stay relevant. AMD already proved they can execute on both fronts. MI300X was proof of concept. MI400 is where they go toe-to-toe across the board at 1/4 the cost. Same playbook that killed Intel's server dominance. NVIDIA's next.

VotedOut

>"I structured an investment thesis the way analysts have structured them for decades." I disagree. There's variance in their formatting, structure, language style from what I've seen - and they don't all look like the ChatGPT stereotype response. But whatever, I'll let this one go and ask you: Do you have any analysis on what you think NVDA and AMD's valuation should be?

CurrentChannel5948

This is actually a solid thesis but I think you're being way too generous on the timeline here. ROCm is still hot garbage compared to CUDA and anyone who's actually tried to run ML workloads on AMD knows it's a pain in the ass The EPYC comparison is interesting but CPUs are way different from the AI accelerator market. Intel was literally asleep at the wheel for years while AMD was catching up. NVIDIA is actively investing billions into their moat That said, your depreciation point is spot on and those MI400 benchmarks could be spicy if they deliver

Bitter_Macaron_4032

Fair. You did argue specifics - my bad on the dismissive opener. On the short: It's a hedge and a conviction play on margin compression. You're right that both can grow in revenue terms. But if NVDA's gross margins compress from 75% toward 65-70% as AMD takes share and pricing pressure builds, the stock reprices even if revenue grows. The market pays 30-40x for dominant margin businesses. It pays 20-25x for competitive ones. Theta is real risk. That's why Burry's using 2027 expiries - long enough for the margin pressure to show up in guidance, not just speculation. I'm sizing the puts small relative to the AMD long for exactly this reason. Your portfolio makes sense - you're playing the rotation without timing NVDA's peak. That's probably smarter risk-adjusted returns. I'm just willing to pay the theta cost because I think the 2026-2027 window is when NVDA guidance starts reflecting real competition and margins get questioned. If I'm wrong and NVDA holds 80%+ share with 75% margins through 2027, the puts expire worthless and I eat the premium. But the AMD long still works. If I'm right about rotation, both legs print. Appreciate the actual pushback instead of "get a job" bullshit. I have a job btw and it's somewhere relevant to my reasoning.

thinkneo

Smart approach. picking the winning robot company is a crapshoot, but they all need components. The actual supply chain breakdown: Precision reducers/gears (this is the niche monopoly): \- Harmonic Drive (Japan: 6324.T) and Nabtesco (Japan: 6268.T) control \~75% of the precision gear market for robot joints. every robot arm needs these. extremely hard to replicate - takes years of manufacturing expertise. closest thing to a monopoly in robotics. Servos/motion control: \- Yaskawa (Japan: 6506.T) - largest servo motor manufacturer globally \- Fanuc (Japan: 6954.T) - dominant in industrial robots AND makes their own servos \- Rockwell Automation (ROK) - US play on industrial automation \- Parker Hannifin (PH) - motion and control systems Machine vision: \- Cognex (CGNX) - dominant in industrial machine vision. high margins, niche leader \- Keyence (Japan: 6861.T) - sensors, vision systems. insanely profitable, 50%+ margins Lidar/sensors: \- this space is crowded and bleeding money. Luminar, Ouster, Hesai all struggling. I'd avoid until there's a clear winner \- Sick AG (Germany) is the boring profitable option for industrial sensors Chips: \- NVDA for AI training and edge compute (Jetson platform is popular in robotics) \- AMD growing in data center, also has embedded solutions \- Qualcomm (QCOM) for mobile/edge robotics \- Texas Instruments (TXN) and Analog Devices (ADI) for the less sexy but essential motor control chips The picks I'd actually consider: 1. Harmonic Drive or Nabtesco (duopoly on precision gears) 2. Cognex or Keyence (machine vision, actual moats) 3. Rockwell or Yaskawa (automation exposure)

Crazy_Donkies

I argued specifics. I disagree with the premium claim because of the entire NVDA ecosystem ensuring ongoing value. Finally, per your statements, if NVDA can still grow, with AMD growing faster, why are you shorting NVDA?  Seems to me theta will eat you alive you're better off putting more into AMD. Funny enough the only MAG7s I own are GOOG and AMZN (new position) and I'm long AMD, AVGO, MU, and some others.  I see rotation into AMD and AVGO, but think it's stupid to short NVDA.

gaieges

This is the biggest problem, IMO. Rotation will not be to AMD exclusively

Bitter_Macaron_4032

"Priced in" is what people say when they can't argue specifics. On depreciation: I didn't say GPUs become worthless overnight. I said there's a mismatch between accounting depreciation (5-6 years) and economic depreciation (2-3 years for cutting-edge training). Yes, older GPUs get rotated to inference - that's exactly my point. They lose their premium value faster than the balance sheet reflects. Burry's thesis is about earnings quality, not whether H100s turn into paperweights. On market growth: You're making my argument for me. If NVDA loses 10% share while the market grows, that's... gradual rotation. Which is literally what I called it. AMD doesn't need NVDA to collapse. They need to do what they did with EPYC - take 15-20 points of share over 3-4 years while the market expands. Both can grow. AMD just grows faster. On "easy button" premium: This logic worked for Intel too. Right up until it didn't. Nobody wants to pay 4x for convenience when ROCm works and your capex budget is $30B. The "easy button" premium exists until CFOs start asking why the fuck they're paying it. On my positions: I'm long AMD because they're taking share. I'm short NVDA because their margins compress as competition arrives. This isn't "rotating out of tech" - it's playing the shift within tech. Intel didn't die when AMD took server share. They just stopped growing and their multiples compressed. Same pattern. You're confusing "bullish on AI" with "bullish on NVDA specifically." I'm extremely bullish on AI. I just think the profits distribute differently going forward. Enjoy your bags.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

I get the CUDA stickiness point, but I think the ARM comparison doesn't really work here. ARM's problem isn't just software - it's architecture, thermals, whole different ecosystems. The AMD vs Intel story is actually the better comparison for CUDA vs ROCm. ROCm is further along than people think. PyTorch and TensorFlow have official ROCm support now. HIP does automated CUDA porting for most stuff. Meta and Microsoft are already using MI300X in production for inference. That's not beta testing - that's real deployment. Yeah, there's friction with debugging and optimization. But EPYC had the same complaints. Everyone said "x86 compatibility doesn't matter if nobody trusts it yet." AMD proved that ecosystem trust builds fast when the value prop is strong enough. The 4x price gap is massive. Intel was never 4x more expensive than AMD. If you're Meta dropping $30B on infrastructure, even spending 6 months porting workloads pays for itself immediately when you're getting similar performance at 1/4 the cost. TPUs are a risk, sure. But Google can't sell them to competitors. Trainium is still early. Custom silicon takes years to iterate on. AMD is the only commercial alternative to NVIDIA that's actually shipping at scale right now. I'm not saying CUDA vanishes. I'm saying 2026-2027 is when ROCm hits the "good enough" inflection point, same way EPYC became default by Milan (gen 3). It's not about if AMD takes share - it's about how fast.

Crazy_Donkies

Priced in. The depreciation claim is invalid. Whitepapers and managements' assertions have already invalidated much of this.  Experts have stated older GPUs are still very much being used for inference and rotated into less demanding work over years.   Do some math on NVDA vs AMD.  NVDA could lose 10% market share while still growing sales and forward profits because the market is growing so much.   However, you don't realize just why people are buying NVDA; they're an easy button for infrastructure.  The premium is worth it in many cases. Finally, your argument for this is bat shit crazy and collapses on itself.  You claim depreciation is a problem but instead of rotating out of tech you're recommending another tech company.  Price to performance is similar between NVDA and AMD and any difference is negated by the easy button. You touch yourself to spreading the ongoing AI FUD.  Get a job.

etzel1200

You’re misunderstanding me. AMD CPUs could easily take share from Intel CPUs as they’re fully compatible. A lot of AI work is built on CUDA. so the better analog is the harder time ARM is having taking share from x86/64.

Bitter_Macaron_4032

Just to clarify: AMD CPUs run on x86-64 (AMD64), not some limiting “x64” distinction. Throwing out ARM as a contender here is misleading... ARM CPUs aren’t designed for high-performance AI workloads. FPGAs don’t meaningfully compete either. The hardware that matters for AI today is GPUs, which is why AMD is pushing Instinct for AI compute, not ARM SoCs or Xilinx FPGAs.

etzel1200

You’re missing a bit how entrenched CUDA is. AMD was still x64. The better analog is ARM. Which has been better than x86 for a while, but inroads are very slow. I do think AMD will add share, but it’ll take a bit of time. Of course, frontier labs can and will adapt. The bigger risk is TPU type architectures.

moxyte

Consistently poor products, it has been losing to AMD ever since first Ryzen. It's so bad of a product company it's trying to remake itself as an American silicon foundry.

Jimmy_E_16

I am up 35% on the year total for my portfolio. Super happy with it, since individual stocks only make up 10% of my portfolio. I would like to send special thanks this year to GOOGL, RDDT, AMD, and the physical Silver I got a few years ago

gregsting

To buy AMD

Scribble_Box

Leaps on GOOG, AMD, UNH, and a couple others made me almost as much as my salary this year. Still up around 70% overall. Pretty crazy run.

ryanvsrobots

They didn't give up nor did they pivot. Again, it's the fastest selling generation. Performance is limited by the node, we are approaching the limits of silicon and that's why the industry is getting more performance via other means like upscaling and frame generation. These new nodes are also way more expensive to produce. Those reasons are why AMD isn't competitive in terms of pure performance, they can only compete in price by taking the L and simply making less money.

enocap1987

What if you bought the wrong one. Nokia instead of apple, yahoo instead of Google, blockbuster instead of netflix, intel instead of AMD. Easy to say now

ElectricalGene6146

Up 70% ytd. Thank you RIVN, AMD, GOOG, RKLB, and others

ryanvsrobots

What? Nvidia didn’t forfeit, 50 series was their fastest selling generation ever and they have like 95% market share. If anything AMD actually forfeited because they’re not bothering to try to compete at the top level. Now AMD is trying to play catch up with features. Welcome to the real world.

Kitchen_File_8946

Apple in my opinion due to a pack of innovation and following behind on AI. I could see AMD, broadcom replacing them or Salesforce

rodentmaster

I'm wondering if I should as well? Nvidia forfeited the GPU wars to AMD by rendering BS frames to fake FPS rates. Not like 1 frame of interpolation, but 1 data-rendered frame followed by 4 AI bullplop frames, and then claiming 200 fps when it's really barely 40fps (whish is rough to play games on), while AMD skipped all that BS and is still crunching frames far faster than Nvidia. The Nvidia 5000 series actually performs worse than the previous generation 4000 series, but is loaded with AI frame generation to make it "smoother" and fake the output numbers. Then they announced they're no longer focusing on GPUs and will limit how many they manufacture, while buying AI companies and saying they're focusing on a volatile bubble as their main income source... I just... I just can't believe this company will survive this series of decisions.

GoogleKushforLunch

AMD chart looks wild, volume must be extremely low still

TheCudder

Is this a sign of AMD + ATI happening all over again? But in reverse...

FuckingJPMAlgos

Intel takes $5B stake in AMD, AMD takes $5B stake in AVGO, AVGO takes $5B stake in TSMC, TSMC takes $5B stake in ...

realribsnotmcfibs

AMD relies on TSMC entirely. Intel has their own fabs & uses TSMC. We know the risks of a TSMC fab where a majority of the brain power and know how is held in Taiwan. A county that could be destroyed literally any day or most likely in the coming years. Intels fab work is vital to US national security and sovereignty. If the US government had to plow several billion a year into Intel fabs to keep the company afloat it would still be the better/required option for the US.

Q_x_Y_z_

If you think $5 billion is something when talking about 4-5T, you deserve to lose money when eventually intel fails cz it's almost, AMD is taking over servers as well.

cisforcar

M chips were elite 5 years ago. M5 chip is still cream of the crop but not ahead of the competition like it once was. Snapdragon x2 elite and AMD Ryzen are now more competitive than ever. Looking ahead aapl is losing its edge in multiple fronts. CPU being one of them.

oldprecision

What is next AMD catalyst? I'm not expecting much from CES.