AMD

CC-5576-05

I was deep in Nvidia and AMD, sold those two and brought home some crazy profits. Now I'm sitting on 50% cash.

mightyscottie9

It's a complete 180 from the capital allocation playbook they were running five years ago. The buybacks at low rates made sense when growth was slowing and they needed to signal confidence. Now they're betting the farm on infrastructure that might not pay off for a decade, if ever. The Hyperion situation is the part that keeps me up at night. That deal structure with Blue Owl is so convoluted it feels like they're hiding something in the fine print. I've seen enough construction contracts to know when something looks over-engineered just to obscure the real numbers. What gets me is the Nvidia and AMD buying in. If the chip suppliers are willing to put $5 billion of their own cash into this, either they know something we don't or they're just propping up their biggest customer so the orders keep flowing.

BadaBingSil

$AMD 550 calls for Friday yeeeeeeeet

Kulutiheges

Wtf happend to AMD and intel

w3_vic

[Meta's $95B Equity Offering and the AI Circular Financing Machine: Financial Relationships, Incentives, and Systemic Risks](https://app.goai.digital/share/u_X3NHcjqmQs2_XXtes1CbVA?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=meta_ai_circular_financing_20261026) Meta's $95 billion equity offering, anchored by non-binding interest from Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, is the most explicit public illustration yet of AI circular financing: chip suppliers providing equity to customers who use that capital to purchase those suppliers' chips. The Class C non-voting structure insulates Zuckerberg's governance control from the equity dilution required to fund an infrastructure program that has already turned Meta's free cash flow negative. The IMF identified this exact pattern two weeks ago as a top-three global financial stability risk. The mechanism that makes it dangerous — "wrong-way risk," where equity and debt depreciate precisely when the revenues they depend on are impaired — is structural, not contingent on fraud or opacity. The bull case rests on AI monetization arriving fast enough to validate the capital committed. The bear case rests on the productivity paradox: that the market needs to reach $6T/year by 2031, against a $1.2–1.8T reality today. The deal itself is neither proof of a bubble nor proof that the system is sustainable. It is proof that the AI industry's financing model has reached a threshold where the largest, most creditworthy participants can no longer fund their ambitions from operating cash flow alone — and that the supply chain is being asked to help finance the demand it is selling into.

Kind_Initiative_7567

504 was the bottom in AMD it looks like , to 700 I hope

greenpride32

It isn't clear whether AMD/AVGO/NVDA are potentially buyjng up to $5b each or $5b cumulatively. But let's assume at most $15b, that still leaves you with $80b. Like all of the other "circular financing" arguments, the substantially larger amounts of flow is "outside the circle". I would agree the META/AMD deal was a bit unusual - but it was more about AMD being desparate to sell AI GPU's as NVDA CUDA dominates the market to the point AMD cannot find buyers without offering huge incentive.

bslaven3

Also several chip company earnings this week. Believe SNKD & INTC are this week and AMD is next week. Also KLAC reports this week. I think that one will be important for the chip giants due to the scope of what they do.

Zwatrem

Now this is actually triple circle-funding, interesting: \- Meta buys chips from AMD \- In exchange they get 10% of AMD \- AMD use that money to get shares of Meta.

kemar7856

2025 full year (the draft's headline numbers)** - Revenue: ~$4.6B, up ~12x from ~$386M in 2024 - Net loss: ~$42B — but ~$34B of that is a non-cash accounting charge on convertible financing; the actual operating loss was $8.06B (vs $2.98B in 2024) - Compute & infra spend: $7.33B, triple the prior year — more than its entire revenue **H1 2026 (updated draft, via WSJ)** - Revenue: $16.3B for six months, vs $1.1B a year earlier - Net loss: $80.7B, of which ~$72B is the same non-cash convertible-note charge - Compute spend: ~$9B in six months alone, already above all of 2025 **The real number — the $518B+ compute commitments over ~10 years, ~80% non-cancellable:** - Broadcom leases: ~$161B - Google: $111B (2026–2033) - Amazon: $110B (2026–2036) - xAI: up to $84.5B (mostly cancellable on 90 days' notice) - Microsoft: $31.4B - AMD: $20B+ of compute, plus up to $5B of Anthropic stock they're buying - WSJ read of the newer draft: ~$450B non-cancellable, potentially $750B total if pending deals close **Other details** - Two customers were ~25% of 2025 revenue; ~80% of revenue is business, not consumer - Cash: $20.28B at year-end 2025, before the May 2026 round - Five share classes; the founders' Class F share carries 50.1% voting power - ~80 of 261 pages are risk factors, including "existential risks to humanity" Context: confidential draft filed June 1 at a $965B valuation; reports have the public S-1 dropping ~this week and an IPO at $1.8–2T as soon as the week of Nov 9. The non-cash losses will look better in the audited public version, but the $518B of fixed compute bills is the part that doesn't get nicer.

Calm-War101

AMD Calls?

AffectionateTour3021

Fall behind? NVDA is more than 5x AMD

Legitimate-Jury3878

Once again NVDA is going to fall way behind AMD and MU

Kantmzk

The biggest players of AI will always be fine. GOOGL is quite cheap now. AMD and NVDA are incredibly cheap. MU is a steal if the narrative flips.

DubiousChemistry

It was really beaten down, several tech people I knew felt they made good products, and they had a chance to take market share off NVDA with their MI series chips. I've been all in one stock pretty much my whole investing life. Whether that be SPY or TQQQ or AMD. Andrew Carnegie agreed: "Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."

Longjumping_Air_9827

I lost my mum, brother. We were planning to move to Australia together, but she suddenly passed away, and now I’m all alone trying to save up enough money for my visa, which is still being processed. I’ve been working hard and putting some of my money into stocks. I trusted AMD because I’d been reading analyses saying its future looked promising, but then it suddenly dropped. I’m honestly so depressed, bro. I haven’t even managed to save that much money yet, and I feel like I’m dealing with everything on my own. I don’t really have anyone to talk to about all of this, brother. I’m so stressed, and sometimes I don’t even know what to do anymore. and now everything red cryyyyy

steem99

people in here stressing over good entry points in AMD meanwhile WW3 is a few months away

gamersEmpire

Fuck you AMD

mpunaskar

u/DubiousChemistry Can you please 1> explain your theory/reasons behind choosing AMD v/s other (eg why was AMD chosen compared to other shiny names at the time) 2> Position sizing e.g. buying 1 stock rather than 4 or buying 5 stocks rather than 15? Thanks.

taisui

Apple design their own processors, they don't own fabs. Neither do Nvidia and AMD.

pmotiveforce

I hope so. I hope they fucking rain down hell on the sycophant lickspittles who have been cozying up to the regime. Nvidia, Apple, SpaceX, TSLA, AMD, many others. Crush the fuck out of them.

g_bleezy

Oh yeah, just worked on a project. There are 300+. There are even marketplaces that aggregate capacity across them. They’re mostly backed by debt on rapidly depreciating assets so consolidation was always on the horizon. Nvidia will yank their support if you try to diversify your fleet with AMD or Google TPUs. It’s not a winning category imo.

hb2xdr

% Below All-Time High Apple: -1% S&P 500: -3% Microsoft: -5% Palantir: -8% Nvidia: -13% Amazon: -14% Meta: -19% Google: -22% AMD: -22% Tesla: -26% Gold: -29% SpaceX: -35% Bitcoin: -36% Netflix: -51% Ethereum: -53% Dogecoin: -90% Fartcoin: -95% Trump Coin: -98% Melania Coin: -99%

Valkyrie_Skuld

trader a long time ago, probably still is probably made a killing on AMD

Valkyrie_Skuld

what do you think about AMD

Fun_Presentation_215

Okay so AMD is +0.1%, and as someone who is balls deep in AMD calls I can go to sleep (just to wake up and see -4%(

FinePerformance1046

The pop has already happened outside of the mega cap stocks like AMD, DELL, MU, Mag6... Just look at quantum, space, nuclear, most mid cap semis... It's ugly out there.

wrestlerkid

Lol. You must be new to trading AMD 😂 . U know theres charts of past history and this really intricate tool that was invented called a calculator right? Do yourself a favor before you post these kinds of comments publicly... open the chart, roll back every previous ATH peak, take that number write it down, then find the trough in the inevitable sell-off that follows. Then calculate your % difference. Do it for all the previous peak/through cycles. Observe a strikingly similar pattern 🤔. Take those numbers, get an average. Subtract that from the current peak. Look back at the chart and make observation 🧐. That number will land right around the previous through AKA where buyers stepped in AKA support. This is how stocks work that are in a structural bull cycle with an unbroken thesis. This will not hold true for all AI stocks because their thesis is breaking. AMDs is not. That being said, their is a 99% likelihood that is where you want to be buying.

MICT3361

My average price in AMD is 120. I guess I’m smarter than hedge funds

BadaBingSil

AMD 5Y Sales Growth: +200% AMD 5Y Stock Growth: +300% WDC 5Y Sales Growth: -20% WDC 5Y Stock Growth: +700% makes sense

Its_kinda_nice_out

It seems the market has oversold. Nothing has really changed. It’s a volatile sector and always has been. Companies like AMD go through 20% dips and recoveries multiple times a year. Add to that people think it’s going to peak and want to get out early, like they did earlier this year. Fact is it is literally the only sector that is showing significant growth so I expect it to recover and then some. Whether that’s in 2 weeks or a year, who knows? My guess is that we see a bounce back by the time NVDA releases earnings.

walking_in_the_dark_

If I only have hold everything I bought and added since liberation day, like I do with my Index. I would have had significant amounts of more profit on single stocks. I can name a few, NVDA, PLTR, AMD, MSFT, META.. even if the QQQ correct with around 33% I would be flat accounting inflation numbers.

UnfairPerformer1243

I sold all of my AMD stock, other than that holding

arkyde

I’m heavy in AI as well. NVDA, AMD, NBIS, BUT also have crm Walmart apple msft google amazon, GE, COP, DIV, MRK… and lotsa cash in hysa. gotta stay diversified.

Busy-Needleworker523

Gave my buddy the tip on AMD in November, he’s very happy

Qweasdy

Nvidia mainly, AMD, micron and skhynix aren’t doing too bad either

Brownrainboze

AMD to 560 on monday

Obvious-Sundae1469

Should be mag 10 by now, space x, AMD, AVGO

GainDelicious1894

How many AMD calls did you buy? 

Succulent_Rain

The sudden spike in June by semiconductor stocks was unprecedented and came on the heels of blowout numbers from the memory stocks and AMD. We’re just having a correction to the sudden spike, that’s all. I don’t think we will ever see the June highs again, but we will see a slight rebound and then a slow deflation of the AI bubble as it becomes increasingly clear that the bottom 493 Enterprises within the S&P 500 are the ones that have to actually pay for AI and that’s the only way the top 7 even make any money.

MtGloomy0420

That’s hilarious…my $NVDA, $MSFT, $AMD, and $TSM shares completely dismantled your theory.

Dumbeldore_75

The same thing happened last November, sentiment got bad, fears about software and fears about ROI. I actually think it’s healthy for the market and a sign that we’re not in a bubble. Last year I ran out of cash when this happened so this year I kept 15 percent in cash, which meant trimming stocks that I really love like AMD and Micron and Crowdstrike when they ran up massively. I’m investing mostly in a retirement account so there’s no taxes. I’ve been able to buy back some of those shares and buy up stocks on a nice discount. Who knows what happens after earnings and the elections but I wouldn’t be surprise if AI stocks rallied again

Next-Paper-2068

Or you could you know... buy good companies that are trading cheap and hold... I bought AMD at $113, sold at $558. $185k in profit off of a $48k investment over 1.5 years No short term bullshit.

Ill-Ad1603

My avg on Google is 338. Losses on Google are small. Biggest losers are AMD, LITE, COHR. I’m not actually down as much of my invested capital. Most of it is melted gains.

Ill-Ad1603

Down over $120k since October 6th, biggest losers, AMD, LITE, COHR, AVGO, MRVL, AMZN, GOOGL, MODINE, CLS, NFLX. No options. Just shares. How brutal is this? Just looking for someone who experienced similar losses. 16% off from all time highs on my port.

bearhunter429

#I can't wait to buy Microsoft at $100, AMD at $50, Intel at $15, NVDA at $35, META at $250, Google at $100 next year LMAO🤌

Glittering_Dig3798

I bought AMD at $80 but it wasn’t that many shares

Legitimate-Jury3878

Why is NVDA not even able to stay up with AMD or MU i don’t understand

Western_Coffee_5445

google has strangled money out of almost as many people as AMD has

piltdown_manchild

>The real cost of AI is being suppressed, however once the entirety of society is dependent on it, people will pay it's true cost. It's being subsidized. The "true cost" will depend on how many people need frontier models versus cheap open-weight models. If 90% of tasks only require commodity AI, the profit margins may not be that impressive. There are already harnesses that route simple prompts to cheaper models. My friend is running an AMD Ryzen AI Halo rig at home and it does a pretty good job with Python coding. It's an expensive setup for a home user, but trivial for a small company. You can do the same thing with Nvidia Spark or Mac Studio.

1098duc_w_the_termi

That monthly candle on AMD looks like the top lmao

powerboner

Happened to me Monday w AMD. They had outages j couldn’t sell shit and lose my 0dte

Puzzled_Lobster_69

If AMD ends above $525 my parents might get back together

OvertaxedOne

Hardware layer (big margin potential right now, effectively only 3 providers; NVDA, AMD, Apple), hyperscalers (modest margin), hosting (low margin). The model itself is already mostly irrelevant for most tasks, you could throw a dart at a wall with all the recent models on it and for the vast majority of business use cases, you'd see no difference. Models are completely interchangeable already for most users, we swap them constantly using a model router at work, our users don't even know what model they are using (DSV4Flash for most tasks, just because I trust you guys!). ;) The other potential capture area is in the harness layer. Swapping from one harness to another, particularly if you're talking something that's a personal assistant/agent can be a real challenge. I hate FB as a company/investment, but their move with Muse is a great business decision, if you can lock users into your agentic layer that is much stickier. Not sure there's a ton of revenue to generate here, but the potential exists IMHO.

joeyeats

AMD king let’s go!! keep running 👑

Puzzled_Lobster_69

AMD you’re gonna make me busy ugh

Puzzled_Lobster_69

AMD please keep going

davidbigham

Give me AMD +5% day . 🦘

Puzzled_Lobster_69

AMD please break out

Designer_Respect4285

And as part of that condition he said unless they create an entirely new form of AI they will collapse. They didn't invent a new form of AI and they didn't collapse. Are you illiterate? Sure, a bubble popping would look like what happened in 2000 or 2008. We would see valuations plummeting. In October 2025, Anthropic was valued at around 183 billion, and OpenAI at 500 billion, today it's around 1.5-2 trillion for Anthropic and 1.25 trillion for OpenAI. Not only are they worth a shitload of money, but they are being assigned an extremely high p/s ratio showing investors have faith in the company. Semicondcutor companies like TSM/AMD etc are up 100% YoY and trading are multiples that price in significant growth. No one is saying the bubble has popped.

drazayn99

AMD puts.

Kind_Initiative_7567

Yep spy 760 qqq 700 was the bottom i guess , all in on calls now on AMD

tacticalwarmouse1

Someone bought AMD at $650 😂😂😂

drazayn99

Die AMD, die. Drill to under $500 you prick

jadedpeasant95

NVDA at 160 would be nice, AMD at 300, MU at 500. But do we get it is the age old question. Both bears and bulls can be greedy at times

-Melkon-

"TPUs are quite unique on one hand" Is it? All bigtech has their own versions (under a different name, since TPU is copyrighted) of it: \- Amazon: Trainium \- MSFT: Maia \- Meta: Mtia \- AMD: Instinct \- etc. Google was the first who made it and they have the highest saturation. They certainly have an advantage for now, but that will go away as the competition picks up production. Back then they simply didn't need such a chip.

callmechristianblack

But is AMD competitive in server and workstation cards? I just don't know enough about it. I just know that they make so much money it seems to me there should be more competitition. And where are the cheap Chinese entrees?

AIPAC_SPEAKS

For a while there, AMD wasn't doing what it's known for. Thank god it's back to being Advanced Money Destroyer

Silent-Complaint4020

You're assuming all $825 billion in commitments will translate into cash payments that need to be financed externally. commitments NOT EQUAL payments. Meta generates tens of billions in operating cash flow every q, and these commitments are spread over many years. Some deals, like AMD, also come with equity incentives that could offset the cost if AMD's share price appreciates. So where exactly does your $500 billion funding gap come from?

Vi7riol

AMD bruv

chocohase

I hate to break it to you but as an 11 year long in AMD honestly this has been common practice and at least for now wouldn't read to much into it. Let's see how the debt restructuring of the neoclouds settles. Corporate demand is still very much there and in its infancy.

MaxDragonMan

I can tell from the number of comments that everyone's portfolio has been getting shafted, and mine is no exception. My biopharma play keeps hitting lows, meanwhile the incredible AMD/RKLB runs from this year have been losing some steam (though I'm definitely not complaining about either). I don't see an end in sight either. Rates will probably need a small raise, or will be held here, which is no good. The economy feels weak, but I know nothing about anything so who's to say. Just gonna keep holding, I guess.

EasternLow4706

non-sarcastically i want to say that very smart people used the knowledge and ressources they had back then to analyse a companies value - and many of them lost a lot of money. i'd say the "intelligence" google has may still be undervalued, its basically 24/7 obeservation of the movement, interests and social interactions of billions of people. Others have that too tho, it's sold on a more or less public market. just don't 10x some shit. AMD could be well in business throughout 2027 and still drop to 320$ a share. It's fair to say that the Tech-Industrie is overflowing with money - but money can be put elsewhere. i don't think Jensen would buy more NVDA right now.

Ill-Ad1603

UNH calls up 36%, GEHC calls also up a bit hoping it’ll have a big upside post earning, but absolutely getting blown to bits on LITE, COHR, AMD, AVGO, GOOGL, AMZN, and MRVL.

RobotPimpLibertyBell

Is the AMD guy still alive? I bet the ups and downs cooked him.

RuleSafe6767

Intel's chips are still inferior to AMD on the x86 side and they dont have answer to the low wattage ARM side with Apple or Nvidia, so I don't know why their stock 5x'ed. Would love to see it back at $25/share and absolutely dunk on the Tr@mp trade.

GreedyPomegranate391

If you can afford it, just hold. I'm very bullish on AMD for the next 1-2 years

Puzzled_Lobster_69

What does AMD open at tomorrow?

Interesting_Bar_8379

I bought a bunch more AMD.... 2 weeks ago.... fffuuuuu

GreedyPomegranate391

Best move I made so far is to sell 1/3 of my AMD at $615, save some of the proceeds in my HYSA for taxes and expenses in the upcoming year, and put the rest all in ELF, CELH, MCD, AXP this year lol those stocks are doing well. I also put some in TQQQ and that's down, but I can hold that. And I believe AMD still has a long way to go, so holding it until $800 at least.

MrSwitchIt

💎 🙌 AMD

Interesting-Maize-36

AMD

XenonDragonfly

Two things to consider: 1. The people who get rich during a boom are not the people who are the focus of the boom. 2. The entire market is interconnected. Let's assume that the AI bubble suddenly bursts. The ENTIRE market would be affected by this. Yes, AI companies would probably be hit the hardest and the first to fold, but companies in the tech sector may be secondary casualties. Energy and water utility companies are going to see drops because people assume data centers aren't going to be built en masse anymore. Financial companies are going to see drops since their investments won't be repaid. The entire economy will see a constriction. That being said, the companies that make the hardware and networks (Companies like Nvidia, AMD, and network providers) will have a drop in their stock price (Nvidia may have a really hard crash) but they're not going to be wiped off the face of the planet. Microsoft, Google, and Meta would be in way more trouble. This is because Nvidia/AMD/Sandisk actually sells products: Computer chips and other hardware. Basically, a tl;dr: Entire market goes down, AI companies largely fold, tech companies in dangerous water, hardware manufacturers/network services hurt but not destroyed.

_hopkins

WTF is wrong with AVGO. Why can’t it be like AMD?

ActualCSIdiot

Yes AI is amazing but if too much debt is spent on it too quickly, that is certainly a problem. Further, it has made balance sheets meaningless because there’s no way to discern how much of the revenue is circular (I give you 10% of AMD if you buy my chips inflates numbers for both of us). I wouldn’t be surprised if the “AI slowdown” is just an attenpt to reduce cash burn. I’m bullish in the long run but I’m not buying companies that have already ran up 500%+ in a year. If I miss the boat, so be it

SuperTankMan8964

AMD has been flat for even longer

MojoRisin909

Ok, well, I hate to break it to you, but that indicator is bullshit. AMD for instance, a F'ing TRILLION dollar company does not shed 160ish points or 24% of its market cap in 2 weeks without MONSTER, bigtime, HUGE money dumping positions. Implying a trillion dollar company can dump like that without major institutional involvement is just crazy man. How many times does it need to be said, \*retail does not move the market.\* Not even close.

xTofik

Nvda is still holding strong, it is the “others” that are falling - INTC, AMD, MU, SNDK

VeterinarianOk7477

I like looking at Volume and the A/D indicator on my brokerage app. are not declining on the A/D indicator which, from what I understand, tells you that intitutional buyers are not selling, but just quietly scooping up cheaper retail shares. Likewise with Volume: big price moves in either direction on low volume will usually reverse within days. AMD for instance. A/D has only slightly declined on the one year chart while the price is crashing. And volume is normal to lighter than normal. This likely means institutions are either not selling at all or just trimming a little for profit, as it is over-extended, while holding on to their core position.

New-Storage-6864

Who else bought AMD 650 calls last week when it dipped to 550🙋‍♂️🙋‍♂️ getting slaughtered

met_art

Any negative OpenAI news will take AMD down. It seems like they are quite sensitive to OpenAI failures.

thetalentedmrbowser

MU and AMD pinned me down and pummelled me and not in a good way

_Clit-Commander_

I was gonna sell everything and fill port into AMD puts this morning. I had that thought in the shower but I bitched out.

BadaBingSil

$AMD is a trillion dollar company $600 calls are free money

Affectionate-End9198

Double down AMD calls?

Pitiful_Bedroom_6619

$AMD FOOCKD ME SO HARD TODAY :sorrow:

BadaBingSil

remember when $AMD was a trillion dollar company? pepperidge farms remembers

NiceOwner

Well I don’t think a lot of theses business AMD, MU, Intel, deserve to lose -10% in a day either, loading up.

GhettoMuppet

AMD back to ~500 is crazy shit

Tim_Riggins_

AMD looking pretty tempting here