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I didn't think there are any. If you are interested in researching the individual companies: REITs: VTR, WELL, CTRE, OHI, NHI, LTC Non- REITs: ENSG, NHC, BKD, PACS OHI, NHI, LTC, CTRE are probably some of the safer ones, but with less upside. They get most of their revenue from fixed rent. VTR, WELL, ENSG, and NHC have more risk, but more upside. Their income is more dependent on the performance of the facilities. Changes in occupancy, for example, can greatly affect income. I wouldn't recommend BKD or PACS unless you really know what you're doing. They have a ton of debt.
Now compliant with SEC filings, short report invalidated, SNF beds are 80% of ENSG but half the market cap
PACS to $50, enterprise value 80% of ENSG
Did a little research. Some of these look better than others they've all performed well and I would wait for a dip OHI NHC LTC ENSG BKD. You are not wrong with that thought process I've seen some people I considered wealthy lose it all in a matter of months to the nursing home.
Good point, I'm making a gamble that despite overstatements in revenue they are still profitable. ENSG margins 12%, if their margins are even half of ENSG then it is worth at least a 2x from here.
Market cap is $1.8B for PACS vs $9.5B for ENSG if that helps you compare their valuation fairly...
I’m not trying to compare them purely on share price. They are similarly sized for SNFs and both in the top 3 in the nation. Check beds and occupancy numbers between the two which I’ve linked. ENSG is slightly bigger and has been around longer. PACS should not be a $12 stock is what I was trying to say.
ENSG and PACS seem to be doing just fine and have this down to a science where they take these failing homes that are hemorrhaging money (as you mention) and turn them around into money printers. Just look at their occupancy numbers. Way higher than industry average. The concern about government Medicaid/medicare cuts is very fair and valid. That’s a larger political discussion in my opinion. But something to monitor and be aware of if you invest in this stock. With that said though, even if cuts came tomorrow, this stock is incredibly undervalued still. This should be a $30 stock, at a minimum.
I think FY 2023 net income was around $150M. Q2 FY2024 was $35M-$40M range. Net margin was 5% or so, comparable to $ENSG. Indeed, PACS appears to be acquiring aggressively and taking on a lot more debt which can be a risk. Liabilities around $5B from a bit of searching. All natural given the aggressive growth strategy. Interim CFO said they will be reporting record revenue when they are compliant. I believe I saw folks estimating this to be somewhere around $4.5B I would say for anyone hesitant, to open a small share position or maybe a few 2027 LEAPS, give them a chance to become compliant by November, I think anything below IPO price is a free discount.
>Their VERY SIMILAR competitor, who is slightly bigger, $ENSG, is trading at $160+ per share. This is incredibly undervalued, think of it as a very discounted version of $ENSG. Please tell me you took share count into account, otherwise this is the most regarded statement I've read.... well for a couple minutes, i was in r/opendoor an hour ago
Their volume has always been similar to their competitor $ENSG except a small period when institutional investors purchased during a SPO in like September. $ENSG is up like 1000% in the last 10 years
It's not about making quick cash at all, this is a long-term hold of an incredibly undervalued company due to this hindenburg report/audit/whatever situation.... This is how the industry operates. ENSG does the same stuff as PACS. Unfortunately, these are businesses that need to make money at the end of the day...and yes they are all pushing that fine line of what to bill for and what not to bill for. Not excusing PACS in any way just trying to say this is how all these PACS-type businesses operate. It is a shame.
Every SNF operates in this way, sad to say this is the way the industry is. ENSG does the exact same stuff.
It’s a good question. Might be worth taking off the thread. I’ve been following their stock since before the drop and have been doubling down. I need more education on investing but my outlook is promising. The biggest thing to consider about success in LTC is census. PACS does this very well. I worked in 3 states and only one of them seemed to do alright, the other two states were meh on census growth. Ensign gets very cheap buildings to keep their rent low. PACS is more aggressive in their acquisition strategy. With the corrections to their Part B, it’ll be interesting to see how things play out. ENSG is very well run from the whole company perspective. They take extremely calculated risk, so they move slower. With PACS, their aggressiveness could end up hurting them if their census growth falters below what it is now.
Nice to hear this ENSG perspective. Wasn't ever sure of how they did things, just aware of PACS style. Very interesting for sure. Share price for them is $150+ so I am super stoked about what PACS can do if they can clear this fully. What are your thoughts on what happens short term and long term as far as price and stock? I am thinking it quickly reaches around IPO price again. And then hopefully they finish and release audit results and missed earnings but hoping that doesn't take until September.
They are absolutely a better ENSG. This hindenburg short report was a blessing in disguise for those brave enough to buy in during these uncertain times. That uncertainty is starting to clear up and the stock price is moving up with that.
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** $PNTG, $NHC, $ADUS, $ENSG, $HCA (and maybe $HCA) **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy **Reason:** Aging population + for-profit healthcare = $$$ in long-term care. These stocks are undervalued based on their operating income and strong balance sheets. **Nana's Feelings:** Extremely displeased about the prospect of her inheritance going to lawyers instead of her grandkids. **Bonus:** Fries are in the bag, chud.
# **TLDR** --- **Ticker:** $PNTG, $NHC, $ADUS, $ENSG, $HCA (and maybe $HCA) **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy **Reason:** Aging population + for-profit healthcare = $$$ in long-term care (LTC). These stocks are undervalued and poised for growth. Nana's not sharing her inheritance, so I'm getting it myself. **Bonus:** Author is already in these positions. (Check images in original post for details) **Extra Bonus:** The author's grandma's bagholding ways are funding their tendies.
How is it hard to prove? Hindenburg literally did it with just public information. Imagine once Medicare begins their audits what they will find lol. Rip. (Long $ENSG).
$ENSG - The Ensign Group. Boring roll up company that continues to purchase, consolidate and fix poor performing skilled nursing facilities. Has compounded at about 15% per year.
ENSG and AUR are my two long runners for growth. Not to dominate the world, but to be good long run. I had NVDA as well, but you all made it pop way faster than I figured it would and now I am out. ENSG is assisted living conglomerate expanding quickly. The baby boomers are quickly going to start entering the later years of their lives and there are more boomers than silent generation, so it will have to expand in the coming decade. No way about it. AUR is self driving tech for commercial trucks, but led by a real engineering timeline/team as opposed to this slapstick Silicon Valley robotaxi crap where they immediately start in the hardest environment and kill a few people just to be "first". Not to mention, corporations shipping major goods have way more money than drunk college students looking for a ride home. Their business model is subscription based per mile with real-time support to help trucks stranded in odd situations. And they have backing from FedEx, Toyota, PACCAR and Amazon already to name a few.
It looks like 16% of ENSG's facilities are new acquisitions (<18 months) vs. 43% for PACS. New facilities have better earnings growth by far vs. mature. 12 or 15% is definitely reasonable to assume in 2 years or so for PACS. But I think growth is likely going to be significantly higher than that in upcoming quarters. There's definitely more downside risks too though with PACS because it just had IPO. For example they just did an additional public offering of shares a couple of weeks ago.
Why is it that PACS has such a higher projected growth rate compared with ENSG? don't you think would be more reasonable to assume something slightly above the 12% you mentioned, perhaps 15% growth? Market cap of ENSG is only 2B above that of PACS, and they're around since 2007 as you mentioned, so do you really see such that big of a room for additional expansion ?
ENSG is great and I hold it, so I agree with you there. But PACS just had their IPO in April so one time expenses from that appear in the Q2 reports. If you look at the adjustments on the most recent 10-Q form you will see that normalized earnings greatly increased in Q2 2024 vs Q2 2023.
I think $ENSG is largely a safer and more consistent investment option. They have a longer track record and consistent growth, $PACS has much worse debt to equity and recently in Q2 2024 had a net loss. Net income declined from about 60M to 40M six months ended June 2024 compared to 2023, and from 21M to -10M three months ended June 2024 compared to 2023. PACS appears to be acquiring aggressively and taking on a lot more debt which can be a risk.
ENSG has been around since 2007. ENSG has revenue & earnings growth of around 12% and a ttm p/e of 39 according to Yahoo..
Thanks. The data is showing that there is going to be a quite severe elderly housing shortage in the next 5-10 years and I'm surprised this is not getting more attention. There are a few elderly care stocks that have already spiked up 2-3X like NHC and ENSG. But OHI is still well below all time highs and I think that's because there's a lag before an upwards spike in rents and property values occurs. But this spike will happen (I think) and the stock has amazing long term potential over the next 5 years or so. I think you're in a great business for the next 5 to 10 years at least!
ENSG. Assisted living ripping off old people
ENSG looks good to me and I've held it in the past. It's growing fast and has significant debt. While NHC has improving margins and very low debt, but is not adding a significant number of new facilities. ENSG probably has more upside potential, but more downside risk (vs. NHC). I checked latest quarterly earnings, ENSG has good non-GAAP earnings growth of 14% and I'm getting a non-GAAP p/e of 26. So, yes that looks good to me and I'm now thinking about buying again this week. I actually wrote a post about PNTG a few months ago. I ended up selling it and missing a lot of upside. I was worried that a shortage of nurses and doctors would limit growth without realizing that shortage was easing.
Have you looked at ENSG compared to NHC? ENSG seems to be buying up so many facilities.
A few *very* interesting options are out there, particularly in small/mid-cap land: PRM: a wildfire retardant company that I believe will have significant growth with climate change and droughts in California worsening ENSG: a fast-growing senior care company with an exemplary record of M&A in a super fractured industry that will only grow as the population grows older ACIC: the best property insurer in Florida for home-and-condo garden style buildings in a state where competitors keep fleeing ANRO: a super risky biopharma stock where I think they have a very impressive clinical development platform for novel antidepressants. If they can make it work the payoff is huge but as always with these things it can go to 0. WEAV: a vertical market software company that does CRM for dental and other medical offices, trading at a relatively low multiple. They recently had a senior leader from HUBS join to help them scale up
Good comment. Thank you. I've held ENSG & HCA up until recently. And I still hold ADUS. I especially like the health companies that have a significant focus on home care like ADUS, PNTG and AMED. I think insurance companies will try to push patients more and more towards home services to avoid paying for stays in inpatient hospitals and skilled nursing facilities. I think the increase in medical service utilization might last longer than expected. Yes, some of it is due to elective procedures put on hold by the pandemic. But I think some of the increase is due to long lasting health conditions brought on by covid, especially dementia. Even so, I agree that some of these health insurance companies are worth a look at these levels. HUM is down 40% in 1 year and CVS now has p/e under 10.
I have been following PNTG and other healthcare facilities / services like ENSG, HCA, and UNH closely. I actually hold a sizable position in most of these equities, however not PNTG. I was considering purchasing PNTG if it reached the $7-8 range last year, however I would not consider it a buy at the current price. I thought at $10 with a PE of 35ish was a bit overpriced, now with the stock doubling in 6 months and with a PE of near 50, definitely overbought on the hype of medical care and rendering services getting that post-covid elective boost. I would say its a better time to actually buy UNH and other insurers, as those right now seem oversold. In any case, I think buying the original parent company, ENSG is a better buy currently than PNTG. ENSG is by PE and other valuation metrics cheaper, and seems to have better ratios, it's also much more mature and developed and still has plenty of room for growth, and they are doing consistent acquisitions. PNTG just seems to immature a company to be at the current PE that it's at. I would be a buyer for PNTG below $10.
> Ensign (ENSG) is up 37% in the last 6 months alone. National health care (NHC) is up 48% in the same time. if it's been up, doesn't mean it's too late?
ENSG was my best, WELL did great too. BKD doesn’t look like it’s doing the best right now but I took the profits and ran a while ago on it.
Better yet, both! $ENSG is a holding company with large exposure in both.
UNH / ENSG / HCA are all my top picks.
Ive ridden ENSG up for years and will continue to ride the boomer wave.
A couple stocks similar to WELL. $Bkd Brookdale and $ENSG ensign run assisted living facilities
ENSG? picked up a few a while back and not much movement
ENSG has broken out but i’m waiting
My 20 year play is retirement homes, there’s an ETF ($OLD) and out of that I picked out ENSG and BKD as my favorites. Gonna be a lot of boomers hitting nursing home ages over the next two decades and all the prices are depressed currently from the bad press surrounding nursing homes and COVID.