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It’s know as sunk cost fallacy to some. Not to me though. these colors don’t run!
Cannabis; the kid that cried wolf but for real this time
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What the hell is GLAS lmao
GLAS really seems like they designed their whole PR strategy modeled after Tesla around sucking in dumb tech investor money. The press releases are granular "technical" updates on the greenhouses, to make the investors feel smart. The constant reminders they are supposedly giga-scale (really missed a big opportunity there to call them Giga greenhouses) and disruptive. CEOs are not very charismatic, but Marc Chodes did well enough to fill the role of provocateur.
Indeed is does. Hopefully $5 was the floor. Man, I really got whupped by this one. Sold five Oct $10p for $2.85, figuring I was protected all the way to $7.15. And that further downside from there was pretty unlike over the course of a month or so, but worst case scenario, I might take a hit of $750 to closeout. Did not anticipate getting assigned. Tried to roll them out yesterday, without luck. Still trying to figure this game out; was there a point at which I should have totally bailed on the puts to avoid early assignment? Throwing questions to the wind in case you, u/bananastock, u/volckerwasright, etc have any worldly insights on where I went wrong and how to improve strategy (other than gambling on GLAS for the first time ever).
i actually think it's better that this happened for TRLV (i also don't think this really means much anyway but to the extent it does). Basically TRLV whole business (at least bottom line) is medical. Future growth or at least what I can tell is Georgia and Texas medical. None of that affected by AU S3 delay. TRLV also hasn't really shown it is good at rec but is the best at medical from what we've seen. I actually think it would be bad for TRLV if Florida went rec. Why change what they are dominant at now? And whether we like to admit it or not, there is definitely limited capital going into cannabis right now. I dont think the dams fully open to big institutions until theres full federal legalization or companies start showing massive growth again. So with that in mind there are only 2 big board listed companies today in the US - TRLV and GLAS. GLAS is absolute trash. So anyone looking for present day US exposure goes to TRLV. (Side note: SNDL has some US exposure but it's smaller part of their portfolio. CGC i think is losing their US exposure. VFF has a greenhouse in TX but no license. CRON and OGI have big tobacco partners and could build but haven't today yet. So i just left those out and limited to TRLV and GLAS) If adult use gets rescheduled, CURA, GTI, VRNO, etc all will uplist. And that is more capital competition for TRLV. So while the fundamentals don't get changed, the premium might. Obviously i bought the dip haha.
Well… I was initially long this for the DEA judge final ruling which was expected in the next few days at most to confirm the schedule 3 recommendation. And with GLAS and TRLV being the only big board listed companies in the US it would be natural these would catch an algo explosion up….the pattern of news and rip in this sick sector is well known. The judge announced a 2 week stay yesterday and blood bath ensued. Then I chased the dip, a few times. And now I find myself more of an investoooorrr…. In hindsight it should have all went to Trlv for the recovery but…. You know
Ooooof, rough day for GLAS. I have no conviction in the company either, so averaging down doesn't really compute at this point. Will be looking for an exit, or a roll out to buy a bit of time.
There are really good reasons its night and day with Trulieve. Trulieve has net cash and last quarter $98M EBITDA. They trade at a TTM EV/EBITDA of 5.6x. But if you include the UTP than they have net debt of $562M and EV/EBITDA of 7.1x GLAS has net debt of $144M and ttm EBITDA is negative. If you give them the benefit of the doubt and use last quarter - the only quarter of positive EBITDA...it still trades at 40x EV/EBITDA! Strategically: Trulieve is highly profitable and has a moat based on the regs today. If regs change they still should be a dominant retailer in Florida even if interstate commerce comes although it does create uncertainty for others to come in on brand side. And it seems that Kim has more influence on federal regs than any other cannabis company. GLAS - there is very strong and pretty justified speculation that their product is being sold out of state (which is illegal), they got raided by ICE and lot of questions around child labor. Lots of regulatory risk. The only way their market cap is justified is if interstate commerce or export comes AND they end up a winner in those markets. But there will be a ton of competition there and it's unclear what advantage they have (they may be competitive they may not). They may be the only large greenhouse growing cannabis in the US today, but that will not stay the same with interstate commerce. Lots of traditional farmer/ag guys will enter. The big MSOs like Cura and GTI probably build bigger facilities. VFF has facilities in texas. CRON just did an investor day and talked about building in the US when its ready. Other big tobacco. Etc etc. Would much rather go long GTI for their uplisting or consolidation with Rythm or ride TRUL than Glas. They are all still way way cheaper than glas. Even the Canadian LPs are way cheaper than GLAS today
Bought incr at 5.30ish, and then doubled down at 5.10. I'll likely add a final lot if it falls a bit further. I also sold a few GLAS Oct $10 puts recently that are now in the red a bit. Will likely look to exit that one sooner than later. Other than that, just selling some TRLV calls and closing some TRLV puts. Nice to see some volatility coming back. Plenty of cash ready for opportunity.
GLAS is oversold on everything until the weekly and it keeps dropping. This is a big deal. Shows no confidence once they allowed shares to be sold.
I gave GLAS a look. Like the rotation setup. But I don't know the company well enough, largely because my spidey sense has always said stay away. I'll likely regret passing on the trade, ha. I did buy a starter position in INCR this morning, at $5.33. Just a nibble for now. You've followed/traded Intercure, right?
Seems like a pretty good trade, assuming the GLAS selloff isn't warranted.
What the heck is going on with MSOS holding GLAS?
Alot of spin here from Gasparino, who also makes it seem that S3 is already official. Cohodes must have talked him into buying a GLAS bag
Looks like Citadel has taken a position in VFF and Cantor took a position in TRLV and GLAS. Times they are a changing!
These results pretty bad. Also worst than pretty much all the major LPs despite being valued 5X more than them. CRON, VFF, Auxly collectively lower EV than GLAS is nuts
CURLF bear flag price target: $6.49 GLAS bear flag price target: $9.20 (already got close to this @ $9.30 so it could already be done) GTBIF bear flag price target: $5.89 TRLV bear flag price target: $7.22