Reddit Posts
Diversification Isn’t Just About Reducing Risk
Mentions
FWIW, $HYDR is the top performing ETF at the 1Y mark, outperforming any AI/data center/semiconductor ETF
Here are the four letters that changed my financial life: HYDR Take this vsweeney. May it serve you well.
$BE - $HYDR ETF $MU - $DRAM $SATL - my $ARKX spec $BTQ - instead of QRL coin.
Friendship over with DRAM, HYDR is new best friend
One challenge with nuclear not mentioned here is what’s the price of uranium? I went long on HYDR because I have no idea what the price of uranium is going to be in 12 months. But if you’re looking at power, URA, POW and HYDR are worth research.
Was $148 in Oman on a YouTube video from two weeks ago. Let me tell you a story from last decade and see where I am wrong: Futures are a decaying instrument - look at the April (settled) May, vs Mid July/August vs December and for argument sake the longest dated future. Markets went into backwardation because the marginal buyer of spot oil will pay $150 or higher - depending on supply/demand. Who buys crude in lots of Futures? Two decades ago I read 15% of the cost of oil was not storage - it was speculation. Storage is why I would pay more in those ling dated oil futures because I do not want my tanker to hold oil waiting on the glut of oil my storage carries in normal times and while the government declines to fill the strategic petroleum reserve. Airlines used to be able to buy Futures to hedge against Russia invading Ukraine and starting WWIII in 2014. Utilities could buy LNG contracts in case of a hurricane 🌀 LNG goes from $1 per cubic unit to $3 - or $10 in case tanks start rolling into Europe 2022. A company made more money trading futures than pro iding airline service or a utility believed trading was the solution before AI no growth meant bribing to expand utility areas of coverage or gambling on fossil fuel delivery contracts. Correct me corporate law folks - someone lobbied against an airline gambling on dice that would create a widowmaker trade blow up the Big Utility or Small Airline. One would be planning a trip only to see a whole regional hub disappear because Karen in accounting let Jacob buy more notional than this graph - a fat finger trade - while getting his kicks on with Aubrey in HR. Companies planning to expand outside plant would be stuck with ths bill to create off peak load energy. Someone might even propose the corporations sorry People should pay spot electric prices. Carl Icahn got paid to take delivery of oil when it was negative, paid to have it shipped to refineries and that oil became your OTC and Rx drug, lipstick, dental floss, every carbon compoundchemical you learn in organic chemistry like vinyl or esters anything that can think of - except for those that are easier to start with methane CH4. Not to mention liquid fuels are the only backbone of a superpower that regional powers or Europe needs. Hydrogen, an investable sector defined by $HYDR ETF is next cycle but would compete with free radicals to oxidize the tripled methane our atmosphere holds. Liquid fuels should never be burned for pleasure during good times let alone hot war in Europe longer than WWII times. Ignore my comments about tax breaks during the longest peacetime expansion since WWII because we did not wean ourselves from the fracking companies that did not turn a profit but saved Europe. Nationalization or the story about aluminum and why Reynold exists not just Alcoa is a great topic besides Methane and Carbon dioxide produced by polychain carbon molecules derived from crude like octane. Your Flintstones mobile car burns dinosaurs and plants from the Eonperiodiforgotalomgtimesgosinkedcarbon era. Costs to store commodities today means contango and those back month futures are normally higher than April or May 2026. Backwardation is spot $140 while I can pay $90 for December or $60 for 2027. Geopolitical premium can be higher than 15% because that speculation that adds a cost to the future in last decade was before fracking and the US shale production that saved Europe - not forever - but temporarily from collapsing when the tanks start marching in music emoji. Who wants to go halfs on a tanker for July 2027? I heard there will be a fireworks display. Yuge!
What's the best ETF to capture that - HYDR or CTEC?
Thank you. Genuinely appreciate the criteria. Surprised how easy it was to find 2023 ROIC data for top five holdings in HYDR.
Starting to see an uptick in hydrogen energy…HYDR?
I have no opinion about u/DonJuansCrow trade thesis. And I have not commented about OP's probability of profit from the trade. I'm simply pointing out that your comment that the trade is "ridiculously risky" is inaccurate and incorrect. Saying that something is risky simply on the basis that someone used the words "shorting" and "options" in the same paragraph is any overused cliche on this subreddit. The max loss on OP's trade is only \~$200. OP's trade appears to have a position delta of about 25 so if we use delta as a proxy of probability of profit - the market is pricing only about a 25% chance that OP's trade will be profitable. So it is a low probability of profit trade. If you are unfamiliar with how to model option positions - look here - [https://optionstrat.com/build/synthetic-put/HYDR/HYDRx-100@23.8,.HYDR250221C23@2.8](https://optionstrat.com/build/synthetic-put/HYDR/HYDRx-100@23.8,.HYDR250221C23@2.8) The trade break-even is if HYDR falls below $21 by Feb 21, 2025. That's means that HYDR has to fall more than 12% to break even. And HYDR is already -31% YTD. u/DonJuansCrow \- I saw your response to me about why you placed this bearish position. If your reasoning is simply based on ChatGPT - especially citing Musk who has a financial reason to be critical about hydrogen - you may want to re-examine how you develop a directional trade thesis.
Put all of it into a Hydrogen related ETF (HYDR or some shit) and wait 10 years and then thank me later.
To name a few and my opinions: FAN - wind market has struggled to compete with solar and many OEMs are losing boatloads of $$. TAN - solar is a better bet than wind IMO. But its overweight in first solar. Many other module OEMs will set up plants in US and compete with FLSR. I think flsr will drag this etf down. LIT - batteries. This is my personal favorite and industry most primed for growth. I've gotten a bunch of Nevada Lithium mining penny stocks hoping one of them takes off. Many trade on the TSX. HYDR - hydrogen is still a few years out i think. But this has a mix of mostly industrial stocks, around the world.
40% HYDR (or similar) = high return starting from about mid-2023 40% KWEB = Risky, with some more short therm downturn potential, however within some mid-therm good return (new year, Chinese holidays...) 20% your gamble... Apocalypse now? 100% ITA
One of my reasons for still being bearish is on Wednesday I had some decent size positions in speculative clean energy stocks and etfs. BE, PLUG, FSR, HYZN, HYDR, PTRA, EVGO. Thursday they all woke from their malaise and surged up mechanically. Same with Friday. I've seen this happen several times in 2022 where these act like they are finally going to break out and then on cue they get shorted back down again. Call me silly, but it's like the hedgies, cover, run them up and make some profit on retail exuberance and in tandem reset their shorts higher and start laddering them back down. Call me a conspiracy theorist but I've played these names for a while and it seems to be a coordinated pattern.
While, I am not going to list stocks to dig into — a very solid play right now is to look into Hydrogen. It will be the new EV sector in the next 2-3 years. Don’t get fooled by solely Fuel Cell and PLUG - do the research. If you want exposure to the game check HYDR.
Somewhat risky but both are beat into the ground. Biotech etf XBI,. Or Hydrogen fuel etf HYDR.
Or buying at low is a smart buy or thing to do what do the rich do when the stock market is crashing they buy buy buy since hydrogen is our future Lithium mining is not good for land fields and mining lithium either what do we do with the old battery’s when they are no good anymore fill up land fields? so for the meantime that’s what the world will be using for a lil while until gas and oil builds a infrastructure for hydrogen so for the meantime lithium it is but Asia and Europe are all about hydrogen vehicles planes boats trains buses and Electric too but hydrogen is weightless unlike batteries an 18 wheeler hauling food etc. trying to pull all that weight batteries are to heavy and if it was lithium batterys it would take so many and be so heavy and a lot of your load would just be the wait of the battery’s all the people that are pulling thousands of pounds of bacon for example would have to have less produce if you had batteries pulling an 18 wheeler but hydrogen is Weight less and imagine charging an 18 wheeler how many batteries would it take to pull that up mountains and how long would it take to charge it hours and hours Truck drivers make money with fast loads onto the next to pick up more onto the next state over and over hydrogen feels as fast as gasoline where charging batteries take long periods of time so our turning point for EVS are batteries but gas and oil is to big to just say we had a good run they have been buying EV electric car companies for years and taking in as a loss just so gas and oil stays in business a little longer but we’re at a tipping point with climate change and everything else so the future is hydrogen!!! Gas and oil is to big to close up shop and hydrogen fills as fast as filling a tank of gas where charging your car at a charging station will take hours 🤔 I think people will go with the fast 💨 and easy especially since people do not have patients do you see everyone waiting hours to charge their cars if they don’t have a garage and they don’t have charging stations at their houses or apartments what about apartments or cities there’s not gonna be charging stations on the streets of every block it’s just a matter of time before every gas station has charging stations but there will be hydrogen gas stations China already said by the year 2026 they are going to have all hydrogen an electric cars so is Europe and the US will follow since we’re back on the Paris accord we will compete with them so we will have battery cars they’ll be cheaper and hydrogen will come along and people will buy them more because peoples time is worth more unless you enjoy sitting in a car for hours charging it sitting on your phone waiting and waiting or you can have a hydrogen car that fills within minutes your call 📞 on buying stock when it’s going down or maybe he’s think for the long play long term cause I’m buying hydrogen bloom, plug fcel, ballard, Westport APD, HYDR etc. when it is down that’s for sure buy because it’s only gonna go ⬆️ in the Near future To the moon
I have no clue what I'm doing. I've just been buying energy stocks and ETFS (as well as more traditional oil and gas) because it seemed like a smart move. These ones have been doing well. FCEL, UUUU, HYDR, HJEN